930  
FXUS64 KHGX 282322  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
522 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH  
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,  
HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE WIND PATTERN TODAY  
THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN SETX  
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN  
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF  
WEDNESDAY, CHARACTERIZED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT  
LATE ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A WARM  
FRONT MOVES ASHORE, WITH ROBUST ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE  
BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTING TO A STEADY INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE  
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER  
THAT WILL RESULT FROM THIS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA, HAVE DECIDED  
TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH  
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.  
ADDITIONALLY, WITH SSTS IN GALVESTON BAY AT AROUND 61F AND DEW  
POINT VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE  
COURSE OF THE EVENING, A PERIOD OF MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH  
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO TUESDAY  
IN/NEAR THE BAYS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  
 
ON TUESDAY, WE REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LEESIDE LOW, PRODUCING A FAIRLY CONDUCIVE  
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE  
PARAMETER SPACE REMAINS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOCATIONS TO OUR  
EAST/NORTHEAST, LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ROBUST CAPE  
(2000-2500 J/KG), BULK SHEAR (40+ KT), AND LOW-LEVEL HELICITY  
(~150 M^2/S^2) AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL  
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES  
TOWARDS THE AREA.  
 
AS THE FRONT REACHES SETX LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY STILL  
POSSIBLE AS IT REACHES THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEGINNINGS OF AN INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIR  
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOW  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE  
HOUSTON METRO AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE.  
 
CADY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF WITH SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. SURFACE  
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FROPA, BRINGING MODERATE CAA AND BREEZY TO  
WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE AT TOP OF THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER. THIS COULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY  
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES/BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL LIKELY NEED  
WIND HEADLINES ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AS TIME APPROACHES.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY, DRY AND CONTINUED  
WEAK CAA WILL PREVAIL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL  
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 60S, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE  
40S AND 50S.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE  
AGAIN BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SOME  
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL LOW OVER THE  
DEEP SOUTH TX BY FRIDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
NEAR THE MATAGORDA REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES ALONG ITS  
PASSAGE. SUNDAY AND BEYOND, CONTINUED EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW  
WILL PERSIST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR EAST.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL. IN FACT, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE OF NAEFS AND GEFS-M CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY DECEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR  
DECREASING CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE DECREASE IN BOTH  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS  
WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. IFR  
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE  
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AND COULD EVEN LINGER  
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THAT BEING SAID, VISIBILITY  
AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON.  
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY VCSH TOMORROW MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT TS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTORMS APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE  
TERMINALS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING VCTS IN LATER UPDATES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
DIFFERENT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND BAYS. FIRST, THERE IS A POTENTIAL  
FOR SEA FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO  
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE  
WATERS. WITH DEWPOINT VALUES REACHING OR EXCEEDING WATER  
TEMPERATURES, PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE  
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS  
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY; THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE  
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR ALL GULF WATERS. THE NEXT  
MARINE CONCERN ARRIVES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY EARLY  
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS AND A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF  
THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE WILL BE POSSIBLE;  
THEREFORE,A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (HIGH-END WIND CRITERIA) AND/OR  
GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT. WINDS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AND TRANSITION TO THE EAST-  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE  
WEEKEND, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL PATCHY SEA FOG.  
 
05  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 78 45 58 / 30 20 0 0  
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 80 54 63 / 30 40 10 0  
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 74 61 67 / 30 60 30 10  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ330.  
 
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR  
GMZ350-355-370-375.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...03  
LONG TERM....03  
AVIATION...87  
 
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