406
FXUS64 KHGX 211713
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1113 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER OFFICIALLY BEGINS AT 3:21 AM CST THIS
MORNING...SO BY THE TIME MOST OF YOU READ THIS IT'LL ALREADY BE
WINTER! IT CERTAINLY DOES FEEL LIKE WINTER OUTSIDE THIS MORNING
THANKS TO YESTERDAY'S REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT IN A PLUME
OF EVEN DRIER AIR. PW VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ~0.3", WHICH IS
RIGHT AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE (~0.32"). POP QUIZ! VERY DRY AIR +
CLEAR SKIES + LIGHT WINDS = ??? IF YOU GUESSED MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING, YOU EARNED AN EXTRA SERVING OF DESSERT! AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INGREDIENTS, TEMPERATURES LATER THIS MORNING
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS LIKELY EXPERIENCING A
LIGHT FREEZE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF THAT
RANGE OCCURING EAST OF I-45.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EASTWARD GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN AND THAT'LL SET THE STAGE FOR A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE OF A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT ~5°F WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO DISCUSS FOR SUNDAY WITH
THE FIRST ONE BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (MOST NOTICEABLE AROUND
THE BRAZOS VALLEY), BUT THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A PICTURESQUE
SUNSET.
THE OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...THIS IS MORE
IMPORTANT IN THE LONG TERM FOR WHAT IT'LL DO AROUND CHRISTMAS, BUT
IN THE SHORT TERM WE WILL BE IN ITS WARM SECTOR GOING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE MOST NOTABLE SHORT TERM IMPACT WILL BE A
~10+°F INCREASE IN SUNDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES AS WE TRADE OUT LOWS
IN THE 30S FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THERE ARE ALSO SOME
HINTS OF PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR NOW.
BATISTE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR/ALONG THE TX/OK
BORDER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING
RISING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/NIGHT.
LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE MIGHT
END UP NEEDING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
A CHANCE OF POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS, SO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR
PLANS FOR THIS HOLIDAY. WEDNESDAY'S EARLY MORNING RAINS/STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE NOON RESULTING IN THE REST OF CHRISTMAS
DAY BEING DRY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL GENERALLY SEE LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND
HIGHS IN A MID 60S TO MID 70S RANGE. 42
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR. EAST WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING
LATE AFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN SE 5 TO 10 KTS MID
MORNING INTO THE AFT TOMORROW.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS MAY
BE NEEDED AT TIMES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ON THROUGH. ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. 42
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 37 65 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 39 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 50 63 58 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ335-350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM....ADAMS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...ADAMS
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