923
FXUS64 KHGX 281912
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
212 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF
THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE COAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BRAZOS VALLEY. SE TEXAS REMAINS SHROUDED BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
DECK THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS FAR AS TONIGHT IS CONCERNED. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. I'VE
LEFT POPS (15-30%) IN FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME DESTABILIZATION COULD TAKE PLACE IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE
TO CLEAR OUT WITH REGARD TO CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND 500MB LEVELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VORT MAXES WORKING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY.
WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, AS WELL AS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TONIGHT'S STORMS DO STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE IN NATURE (AGAIN, HEAVILY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH THE ENVIRONMENT
CAN RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING/AFERNOON'S THUNDERSTORMS). LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...AND GIVEN HOW MUCH
RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED TODAY, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLOODING.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA. DURING THE MORNING HOURS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT. AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES PLACE,
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS (MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC).
THE CAVEAT WOULD BE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS POSITIONING, RAINFALL MAY
BECOME INHIBITED. RAIN CHANCES WILL WANE DURING THE LATE EVENING
INTO EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.
ADAMS
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
GOING INTO FRIDAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE
COASTLINE. WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.8-2.1" RANGE (90TH PERCENTILE:
~1.84") ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WE'LL DEFINITELY HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELEVATED PW
VALUES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY
(BUT POSSIBLY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL), SO ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND MAINLY OFFSHORE AND RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH ON SUNDAY
BRINGS THOSE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE
TREND. PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.8-2.1" RANGE, SO THERE'S STILL
SOME POTENTIAL FOR US TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...YA KNOW THE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN.
SPEAKING OF SUMMER, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 80S...THEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WE TAKE IT INTO THE 90S
SUNDAY AND ONWARD. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SIMILAR CLIMB
AS WE START OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WE'RE SOLIDLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS
MEANS WE COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PUSHING NORTH OF CLL
AND UTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
CLL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, WITH SLOW,
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECLINE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, LOCALLY
HEAVIER AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE LIGHT
TO MODERATE AND OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BEFORE
WINDS RESUME TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 87 72 83 / 30 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 87 75 87 / 30 50 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 84 79 87 / 30 40 10 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM....BATISTE
AVIATION...MCNEEL
MARINE...SELF
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