051
FXUS64 KHGX 260450
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES, PEAKING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, A COMFORTABLE NIGHT IS UNFOLDING AS SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOW 70S WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S. SO, ENJOY THE DRY AND COMFORTABLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE
DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
BE HOT BUT STILL WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE AREA,
EXPECT A HOT AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE.
AFTER TUESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WITH INCREASING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PEAKING FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WE'LL
BE RECEIVING MOISTURE FROM DIFFERENT AREAS. GULF MOISTURE WILL KICK-
IN AS PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AT THE SAME TIME DEEP
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FILTER OVER THE PLAINS AS A DEEPENING UPPER-
LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND MERGES WITH THE REMNANTS
OF POLO. CONFIDENCE IN A WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK
CONTINUES TO INCREASE; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, RAIN COVERAGE,
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS STILL LOW. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, MOST OF THEM NOW
KEEP THE FROPA TO OUR WEST. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS FOR OUR
REGION, BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE
BULK OF THE QPF TO OUR NORTH/WEST. OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY OF
GETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH IS AROUND 20 TO 35 %
FOR WEDNESDAY, 50 TO 60% FOR THURSDAY, AND 30 TO 40% ON FRIDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IS SLIGHTLY LOWER: 20-25%
WED, 30-45% THURS, AND 15 TO 25% FRI. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN MODELS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, AND THE EVENTUAL QPF, THE
MAIN TAKEAWAY AT THE MOMENT IS TO FOCUS ON IMPACTS AND NOT TOTAL
AMOUNTS. PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. FINER DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
JM
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF CYCLE. VRB OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL BE NE BY LATE MORNING AND VEER SE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COME
TOMORROW EVENING, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT AND VRB.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND
SEAS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT MINIMAL IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE UPPER TX COAST HEADING INTO MID-
WEEK. LOOK FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 81 89 / 10 20 10 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JM
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