213
FXUS64 KHGX 151118
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
518 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON A DAILY
BASIS.
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RE-ENTER THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY SOME BETTER CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND MOSTLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROXIMATELY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, EXCEPTIONALLY WARM FOR MID-
NOVEMBER. WHILE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY WEAKEN
THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE EFFECTS ON SE TEXAS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE
AS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT
AGAIN THIS IS LESS LIKELY. STILL, AMPLE MOISTURE WITH LIGHT WINDS &
MOST CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DURING
THE NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FOG WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, MOSTLY PATCHY WITH A FEW DENSE PATCHES POSSIBLE IN SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY AT FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KCXO AND KLBX. A FEW DENSE
PATCHES COULD IMPACT MORNING COMMUTES, SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE A TAD MORE ACTIVE DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO SWING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES & PVA
IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPLY LIFT NECESSARY FOR A
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, STARTING IN THE MORNING
BUT MOSTLY PICKING UP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
TO CREEP UPWARDS INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SE TEXAS.
TIMING FOR THIS FROPA IS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS,
THOUGH STILL AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH COOLER
WEATHER IN IT'S WAKE. THE GFS SHOWED THE TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL WITH AROUND 30-50 KNOTS OF BULK
SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SFC CAPE IS ON THE LOWER END AT AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG, THOUGH THE GFS ALSO DEPICTS A CORRIDOR OF +200M2S2
3KM SRH TO THE NORTHEAST & COVERING PORTIONS PINEY WOODS AREA. MUCH
OF THESE DETAILS MAY LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH
THE BROADER PICTURE CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONGER, POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS UPCOMING FROPA.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES BROADLY INDICATE DECLINING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF NOVEMBER, ESPECIALLY AROUND THANKSGIVING. STILL, WE'RE
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER SE WIND SHIFT SOME TIME AFTER THIS UPCOMING
FRONT, LEADING TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS AS
WE APPROACH THANKSGIVING (PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK).
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
PATCHY FOG, PARTICULARLY IN THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS (HEY THERE,
CXO AND LBX) WILL HOLD THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE, THEN
VFR AREA-WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MAY GET SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE HIGHER TEENS AS WELL, ALL
BEFORE THE SUN SETS AND WE BEGIN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN ANEW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG INLAND MAY SPILL INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
BAYS & UPPER SHIP CHANNEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. CHANCES OF THIS OCCURING APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
SHOULD INCREASED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS RETURNING ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. CAUTION FLAGS AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS POINT WITH A COLD FRONT SLATED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONGER WINDS & HIGHER SEAS MAY ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 69 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...03
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