839
FXUS64 KHGX 090611
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
111 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS (WINDS/SEAS) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
RESULTING IN SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NORTHWARD WITH
LANDFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
STORM'S IMPACTS ON THE CWA ARE MINIMAL, BUT WE ARE SEEING ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, AND
MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE THREATS ARE DETAILED IN THE
SECTIONS BELOW.
DRIER AIR SPREAD ACROSS SE TX TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS RESULTING IN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. DEWPOINTS AT
LATE EVENING ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S INLAND WITH
HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE COAST. 00Z LCH SOUNDING DEPICTED A PW OF
0.72 INCHES. THIS IS AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE DATE WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR. CONTINUED EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP DRY AIR CIRCULATING INTO SE TX ALL
THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH PW VALUES REMAINING LESS THAN AN
INCH. ALL IN ALL IT WILL BE PRETTY NICE THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS. MOST INLAND AREAS WILL
SEE MIN TEMPS DROP TO THE 60S, INCLUDING THE HOUSTON SUBURBS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 MPH FRIDAY WILL DECREASE
SOME SATURDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE WILL UNFORTUNATELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
LEVELS, AND THE RETURN OF SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. EXPECT TO SEE
A RETURN OF DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD. MIN
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
ARE THERE ANY HINTS OF FALL WEATHER ON THE HORIZON? THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH CONTINUE THE TREND OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A COLD FRONT MAKING IT TO SE TX IN THE OCTOBER 16-18 PERIOD,
SUPPORTED BY A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS
WELL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK.
35/MM
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH LIGHT NE WINDS. CLOSER
TO THE COAST, WINDS COULD GUST OVER 15 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
MORNINGN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY AS HURRICANE
ISAIAS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE IT'S EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK 5-7 FEET NEARSHORE,
7-9 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS IMPACT THE WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
QUICKLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND AND
WEAKENS. WE WILL SEE A HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THE BEACHES. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 2.5 FEET ABOVE
MLLW AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 3.0 TO 3.5 ABOVE MLLW FRIDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS WEEKEND.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS.
35/MM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 68 91 70 / 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 86 76 85 77 / 10 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-
375.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...35
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