603
FXUS64 KHGX 192343
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
543 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A MID/UPPER LOW OVER SW CONUS AND NW MEXICO WILL PUSH EASTWARD
AS ITS STRUCTURE TRANSITIONS FROM A CLOSED LOW TO A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH. A STRONG, DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET AHEAD OF THE
THE LOW IS EVIDENT OVER A LARGE REGION SPANNING SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, SW CONUS, AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO. PLENTIFUL MID/UPPER
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL / SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY THE JET. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH RISING LL PWATS IS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASINGLY MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON. WE SUSPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER, MANY NEIGHBORHOODS WILL REMAIN DRY. LIFT AND
SHEER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EAST TO
NORTHEAST, RESULTING IN A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POPS ON
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SFC FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND MOISTURE
PARAMETERS, LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT BEING SAID, THE JET WILL BE MOST
DIFFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THEREFORE, THE BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. BEST CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN OUR REGION WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSED OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
NEAR WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.
ANOTHER MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PICTURE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SIMILAR SET UP,
WITH THE HEAVIEST WEATHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST DESPITE A DECENT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR SE TEXAS. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO
ASSUME THAT THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE JUST LIKE THE FIRST. BUT
THE SIGNAL SUGGESTS IT WILL BE SIMILAR. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE RIVERS IF ENOUGH RAINFALL OCCURS TO OUR NORTH. BUT THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR.
NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT TEMPERATURES. WE ARE EXPECTING NEAR RECORD
WARMTH AREAWIDE THROUGH THURSDAY, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S. COUPLED WITH THE HUMIDITY, THE AIR WILL ENTAIL A MORE
SUMMER-LIKE VIBE. WARM, BUT NOT THE NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF LATE,
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BEYOND THEN, THE PATTERN MAY GO INTO
FLUX. CURRENT LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTIONS ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A WARMER PATTERN. BUT THOSE SIGNALS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
MIXED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE END OF THE CURRENT
SPLIT-FLOW JET PATTERN AND THE BEGINNING OF A MORE POLAR JET
DOMINANT PATTERN. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STRONGER COLD FRONTS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO CONUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
STRONG COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NOVEMBER OR EARLY DECEMBER. BUT
THE GLOBALS CAN BE WRONG. GENERALLY SPEAKING, I'D SAY THE SIGNALS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS IN
THE 70S, LOWS IN THE 50S) BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF DECREASED
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUD CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN LIFR TO MVFR AREAWIDE. THE WINDOW THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 18Z. ALSO
AROUND 18Z IS WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SPORADIC RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT
THIS TIME. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST
OF I-45. THE GREATER CONFIDENCE ON RAIN COMES NEAR OR JUST AFTER
THE CURRENT PERIOD OF THIS TAF PACKAGE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DECREASED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GOING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND 2-4 FOOT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BECOME MORE VARIABLE ON
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES IT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. ONSHORE FLOW MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT CAUTION FLAGS ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG AS RECENT FRONTS THAT PRODUCED IMPACTFUL
WINDS AND SEAS. BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT CAUTION FLAG WORTHY WINDS
BEYOND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 85 67 79 / 20 50 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 85 70 85 / 10 20 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 78 71 80 / 10 30 20 50
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...SELF
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