937
FXUS64 KHGX 041127
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR HARRIS COUNTY FOR HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
105-110F (41- 43C).
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ON SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE DOMINANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SETUP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RESHUFFLES FROM THE MASSIVE RIDGE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS LOOK
TO BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP
PROMOTE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENTLY, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IS SEEN ACROSS OUR AREA.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS THE ISSUANCE OF A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR INLAND AND COASTAL HARRIS COUNTY. A COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PLACED A MAJORITY OF HARRIS COUNTY IN A RANGE OF MAX HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 107-109F (42-43C). WITH SEVERAL EVENTS ONGOING TODAY AND
GREATER THAN FIFTY PERCENT OF THE COUNTY EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, IT WAS PRUDENT THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HEAT
INDICES OF 108F (43C) OR HIGHER WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
OCCURRENCE OUTSIDE OF HARRIS COUNTY AND THUS A HEAT ADVISORY WAS
NOT CONSIDERED ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
THE 108F THRESHOLD ON SUNDAY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE
ONCE AGAIN IN HARRIS COUNTY. A BRIEF DECREASE IN MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGING
RELAXES SOME. HOWEVER, MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES LOOK TO REMAIN
ELEVATED AS INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY IN
PARTICULAR COULD BE CLOSE TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
DEPENDING ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE HEAT THREAT AROUND
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
SUNDAY, BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS SHOW A MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL IMPULSE SWING DOWN THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IT REMAINS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY DIRECT EFFECTS FROM THE
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE, BUT IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
SEABREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RAN CHANCES LOOK
TO DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR VIS THROUGH 13/14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. RECENT CAMS HINT AT VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
CONFIDENCE BEING LOW IN COVERAGE, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION
OF TS OUT OF THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
5-10 KNOTS, THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GULF
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED COASTAL AND GULF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, A GRADUALLY STEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS, ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE SEAS. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST SHOWS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE
BY THURSDAY. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 3-4 FEET BY WEEK'S END.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 95 77 / 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 79 96 79 / 20 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 83 90 83 / 10 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ213-313.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...CASTILLO
MARINE...WILLIAMS
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