644
FXUS64 KHGX 030454
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1054 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE A LAST DAY FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
- EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD THE TIMING OF ANY
RAIN LINE UP WELL WITH THE WARMEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON, SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
MIDWEEK, EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BY FRIDAY,
AND CARRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MONDAY WAS A DAY THAT STARTED RELATIVELY CHILLY WITH EVEN SOME
FOLKS DOWN AROUND FREEZING...BUT BY AFTERNOON, WE SAW A
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE, AND EVEN PUSHING OVER 70
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS THANKS TO THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. TO
PAIR WITH THAT, TONIGHT LOOKS QUITE MILD, SETTING US UP FOR
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TUESDAY...AT LEAST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMES
IN.
ONE INTERESTING THING WE'LL HAVE TO LOOK AT IS THE SPECIFIC TIMING
OF THE FRONT. IF IT SWOOPS IN VERY NEAR PEAK HEATING, BUT JUST A
LITTLE TOO LATE TO CHOP DOWN TEMPS, WE WILL BE IN THE SITUATION
WHERE TEMPS CAN REALLY RACE UP WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AS
WELL. THE CURRENT TIMING WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THIS OUTCOME, SO
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTS IT. ALSO...THIS GIVES US A SMALL
ZONE OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLUS A BIT OF
MECHANICAL FORCING JUST AHEAD/ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AND...WHILE NOT
SUPER IMPRESSIVE, PERHAPS A BIT OF A DIFFLUENT PATTERN IN THE
UPPER JET? THAT ONE'S MUCH MORE IFFY. ALL IN ALL, TO ME IT ADDS UP
TO A SCENARIO IN WHICH WE GET SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE BROADER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.
NORTH WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND WHILE THE
COLDEST AIR BROUGHT ON BY THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STAY HEMMED UP IN
CANADA, ENOUGH MODESTLY COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN TO BRING US
BACK TO TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. BUT, WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY THURSDAY EVENING,
WE'LL KEEP THE WEATHER TRAIN CHUGGING RIGHT ALONG AND GIVE US A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. I DON'T DEVIATE MUCH FROM NBM HERE
AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A RELATIVELY DECENT HANDLE ON THE BIG PICTURE
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE, RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN. THERE'S
ALWAYS THE IRONING OUT OF ITS WEIRD QUIRKS THAT ROUTINELY POP UP,
BUT NOT MUCH NEED TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES HERE. I'VE GOT FRIDAY
PEGGED AS A DAY PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH EVEN MORE WARMTH
BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, THE WARMEST SPOTS IN THE
AREA WILL BE LOOKING TO REACH FOR THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT THE HOUSTON
AREA AND I-10 CORRIDOR POINTS NORTH, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT THE COAST THIS EVENING. BUT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOMORROW. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TOMORROW. WE HAVE PUSHED BACK THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHRA
RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. BUT WE SUSPECT THERE WILL BE SOME
SHRA ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH ONSHORE FLOW REACHING VERY NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
INDEED, A COUPLE OBSERVATIONS FROM FARTHER OFFSHORE ARE RIGHT UP
ON THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD - AND A NEED FOR A SMALL, SHORT ADVISORY
MAY EMERGE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, WINDS DECREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY
FOG AS THOSE WINDS WEAKEN JUST BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE A NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH THAT
WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY-LEVEL (APPROACHING 100 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES IN THE EXPERIMENTAL NBM V5), CONFIDENCE IS
SIMILARLY HIGH THAT THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY LOW-END WIND
EVENT AS WELL, WITH A MODESTLY COLD AIRMASS MAKING ITS WAY OVER
COLD WATERS. THOSE SAME PROBABILITIES THAT ARE SO HIGH FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE VIRTUALLY NIL FOR GALE CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER THING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF LOW WATER ON THE BAYS. THE HOPE
IS THAT RECOVERY IN THIS STRETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL HELP MITIGATE LOW WATER CONDITIONS AFTER
THE POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS DEVELOP. STILL, AT LEAST SOME
NEGATIVE TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED AND MAY FALL LOW ENOUGH TO PROMPT
ANOTHER ADVISORY, WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING'S LOW TIDE CYCLE BEING A
PARTICULAR CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 71 42 64 / 10 50 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 72 47 64 / 20 60 50 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 65 51 61 / 10 40 70 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...LUCHS
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