061  
FXUS64 KHGX 222358  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
658 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR TODAY, NOT  
MUCH IF ANY, HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. A STRONG PERSISTENT CAP  
HAS HELPED TO KEEP THINGS QUIET, BUT MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVEN-  
ING HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE DRY LINE  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO HOLD TOGETHER  
AS IT MOVES FROM CENTRAL TX INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING. WE  
ARE STILL LOOKING AT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF  
THIS DEVELOPMENT HOLDS TOGETHER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO SPC  
AND WPC OUTLOOKS FOR TODAY...WITH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN  
A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OUT OF  
5) AND A MOSTLY MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR OUR NORTHERN-  
MOST COUNTIES (MADISON, TRINITY, HOUSTON). DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD  
PRODUCE AMOUNTS FROM 1-3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD, WHICH WILL THEN  
CAUSE ISSUES IN LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED STREET FLOOD-  
ING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THESE STORMS MIGHT BE  
TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS HOUSTON PROPER BEFORE THE CAP/LOSS OF DAY  
TIME HEATING WINS OUT.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THIS, THE FORECAST FOR SE TX WILL BE GENERALLY WARM AND  
MUGGY AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST. HIGHS WILL TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. 41  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MEXICO  
WILL REMAIN A DOMINANT FORCE IN THE TEXAS ATMOSPHERE, KEEPING  
CONDITIONS QUITE HOT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY IS  
EXPECTED TO BE A HUMID DAY WITH INLAND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES  
AROUND 90 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOUT 10  
DEGREES HOTTER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. A STOUT CAP IS  
EXPECTED TO KEEP POPS LOW DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER  
DISTURBANCES AND HIGH PWATS. HOWEVER, THE GFS INSISTS THAT THERE  
WILL BE A MORE AGGRESSIVE UL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL THROW STRONG  
PVA AND ITS RESULTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO OUR NORTHERN  
COUNTIES. FOR NOW, WE HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT (~20%) POPS ACROSS OUR  
BRAZOS VALLEY COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  
 
OVER THE WEEKEND, A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER W CONUS WILL INDUCE LL  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL VEER THE LOW TO  
MID LEVEL (850-700MB) FLOW TO THE SW, ENHANCING WAA ALOFT. THESE  
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL "MIX" TO THE SURFACE, ALLOWING FOR  
DAYTIME HIGHS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THIS WEEKEND INTO  
MONDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MOST INLAND AREAS COULD BE IN THE  
MID 90S. OUR TEMPERATURE GRIDS EVEN SHOW A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER  
90S. CONSIDERING THE CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY, CURRENT PROJECTED  
HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD WARRANT HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE SUNDAY-  
MONDAY TIME FRAME. EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE  
HEAT POSES A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) RISK  
TO HEALTH. IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND, PLEASE PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS DRINKING PLENTIFUL  
WATER, WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND TAKING BREAKS  
(PREFERABLY INDOORS IN THE AC) IF WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE. IT IS  
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT DRINKING ALCOHOL CAN RESULT IN  
DEHYDRATION. SO BE CAREFUL AT THOSE OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY  
FESTIVITIES! ALSO, NEVER FORGET TO LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR  
VEHICLE. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN AND PETS IN A HOT CAR. THERE WILL  
ALSO BE AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES.  
 
SOME RELIEF IN THE HEAT MAY ARRIVE AFTER MEMORIAL DAY DUE TO AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW, WE  
ONLY DEPICT SLIGHT POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE EARLY  
OUTLOOK FOR THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY  
FEATURES LOWER DEW POINTS (IN THE 60S INSTEAD OF 70S) AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S.  
 
SELF  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING  
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT NEAR/AROUND KCLL, KUTS, AND KCXO  
TERMINALS. ERRATIC WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH THE SEVERE STORMS.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO WIDESPREAD MVFR TONIGHT  
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE IAH TERMINAL. VFR WITH SCT MVFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SSE WINDS AROUND 10  
TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY  
STORMS.  
 
JM  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 3-5 FOOT SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS  
AND SEAS ARE LIKELY. THEREFORE, CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED  
THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. WE CANNOT RULE OUT  
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES. WINDS ARE SEAS  
ARE PROJECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
MINOR TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST  
TEXAS, PARTICULARLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TRINITY AND BRAZOS RIVERS.  
THE FOLLOWING RIVER POINTS ARE EITHER CURRENTLY IN FLOOD STAGE  
(AS OF ~3AM WEDNESDAY MORNING):  
 
MAJOR//  
-------  
- TRINITY RIVER (LIBERTY): MAJOR  
 
MODERATE//  
----------  
- TRINITY RIVER (RIVERSIDE): MODERATE  
- TRINITY RIVER (MOSS BLUFF): MODERATE  
 
MINOR//  
-------  
- TRINITY RIVER (GOODRICH): MINOR  
- BRAZOS RIVER (RICHMOND): MINOR  
- BRAZOS RIVER (ROSHARON): MINOR  
- BRAZOS RIVER (SUGAR LAND): MINOR  
 
REMEMBER TO HEED ANY INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND TO  
NEVER TRAVEL THROUGH ANY FLOODED AREAS OR ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND,  
DON'T DROWN. PLEASE MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS VIA THE NWS AHPS  
WEBSITE AND/OR THE NEW NWS NWPS WEBPAGE (HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV/) AS  
THE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES.   
 
BATISTE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 91 76 93 / 50 10 10 0  
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 77 93 / 20 10 0 0  
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 85 78 85 / 10 10 10 0  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ436>439.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR  
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...41  
LONG TERM....SELF  
AVIATION...JM  
MARINE...SELF  
 
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