156  
FXUS64 KHGX 230516  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS  
A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY  
IMPACT WILL BE MINOR FLOODING/PONDING, BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.  
 
- MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE  
CONDITION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS  
AND ELEVATED SEAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND ELEVATED TIDES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
THE BULK OF THE INTEREST THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.  
SO, WILL KEEP THE DISCUSSION BRIEF FOR TODAY'S WEATHER:  
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE  
REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE.  
 
OVERALL: OUR FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL, IN SEVERAL WEEKS IS ARRIVING THIS FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH  
TEXAS. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
LIKELY THROUGH THIS TIME RANGE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL  
POSSIBLE (LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN  
ANOTHER PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT). RAINFALL  
TOTALS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE UP TO 2-4",  
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR WHERE STRONG MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.  
VERY DRY GROUNDS (DUE TO WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
NEAR ZERO RAINFALL) WILL HELP ALLEVIATE SOME FLASH FLOODING  
CONCERNS. THE 1-HR FFG IS GENERALLY 3-5" AND THE 3-HR FFG IS 4-6",  
BUT HIGH RAIN RATES OR STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA COULD  
APPROACH THESE LIMITS. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE MINOR  
FLOODING/PONDING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT A FEW  
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FINER DETAILS/HIGHER  
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND TOTALS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE COMES INTO PLAY.  
 
WPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SE TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)  
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, AND A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK  
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON SATURDAY WITH THE SLIGHT RISK GENERALLY FOR MOST  
AREAS EAST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER (INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METRO).  
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS  
MORE DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO MAKE SURE TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AS FLOODING  
CAN BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE AT NIGHT. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL  
CALLS TO ACTION THAT ARE USEFUL DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR: MAKE  
SURE TO TURN OFF/BRING INSIDE ANY LAWN INFLATABLES AS THEY WILL BE  
MORE VULNERABLE TO GUSTY WINDS, AND TO UNPLUG OR ENSURE PROPER  
ENCLOSURES OF OUTDOOR POWER STRIPS THAT COULD BE EXPOSED TO  
RAINFALL/PONDING.  
 
--  
 
A BREAKDOWN BY TIME PERIOD FOLLOWS:  
 
FRIDAY: A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION LEADING TO A STRONG  
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING SURGE IN MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE  
GULF. PWATS ACROSS SE TEXAS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6-1.9" FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COMBINE THE MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND  
INCREASING PVA FROM THE SYSTEM TO NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS  
POINT, AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-45 MAY HAVE BETTER COVERAGE, BUT  
REALLY ANY SPOT IN THE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.  
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO WATCH FOR MINOR STREET  
FLOODING IF A DOWNPOUR OCCURS OVER A POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WPC HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF SE TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF LULL  
IN ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER OUR  
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE OUT WEST TO THE HILL COUNTY WHERE A  
POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AS THAT UPPER-LEVEL  
LOW SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT  
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH  
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND APPROACHING OUR AREA DURING THE  
LATE NIGHT HOURS/NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT THANKS TO A SPLITTING JET  
OVERHEAD, AND HIGH PWATS ALL SUPPORT AN MCS DEVELOPING FRIDAY  
NIGHT (INITIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY). CURRENT  
GUIDANCE HAS THIS LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE BRAZOS VALLEY AS  
EARLY AS 2-4AM SATURDAY MORNING, BUT A STRONG MCS LIKE THIS CAN  
SOMETIMES SPEED ITSELF UP SO I DON'T WANT OUT RULE IT ARRIVING  
SLIGHTLY EARLIER.  
 
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MCS THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM  
THE WEST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE MAKINGS ITS WAY THROUGH SE  
TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING (POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST). MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED  
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. THE  
RAINFALL FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS (UP TO 1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS) WILL GENERALLY BE MANAGEABLE DUE TO DRY SOILS, BUT HIGH  
RAINFALL RATES MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING/PONDING. WHILE THE MCS  
WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST, LINGERING HIGH MOISTURE AND THE  
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHANCE OF  
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TEXAS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE  
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN  
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE  
FRONT SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM  
SUNDAY MORNING, ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, BUT EXACT TIMING IS  
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL FORCE  
OF UPLIFT ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF  
AND ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. BETWEEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING, CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,  
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA  
WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE  
ABOVE OVERVIEW, WPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT  
RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH  
FLOODING ON SATURDAY WITH AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE BRAZOS RIVE  
IN THE SLIGHT RISK. AGAIN, THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE MINOR  
FLOODING/PONDING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE, BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF RAIN RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH OR  
STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME SPOT.  
 
SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK: WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE  
EAST ON SUNDAY, THERE ACTUALLY WON'T BE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE  
IN TEMPERATURES COMPARING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN FACT, DUE TO THE  
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING  
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON  
SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW OR MID 80S ON SUNDAY).  
THIS IS BECAUSE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC-  
BASED COMPARED TO TRADITIONAL COLD FRONTS. A GRADUAL, SLIGHT WARM-  
UP IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON THE  
HORIZON, POSSIBLY PASSING THROUGH SE TEXAS MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK - BUT  
EXACT DETAILS ARE FUZZY, SO LET'S FOCUS ON THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM  
FIRST.  
 
FOWLER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME E/SE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS  
POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
 
ADAMS  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING,  
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY  
LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND  
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE REACHING 15-20KT BY  
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE DAY, AND THEN INCREASE TO 20-25KT AND GUSTS TO 30KT  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER WINDS WITH SEAS 4-7FT FRIDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BUT THE ELEVATED SEAS WILL  
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE COLD  
FRONT, BUT WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW BY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE  
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH  
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN AGAIN  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE WATERS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
NEAR ARE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THE MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL ALSO  
LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST. A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP  
CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES, AND ELEVATED  
WATER-LEVELS (ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE) WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TIDES AROUND 3.0-3.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN-  
LOW- LOW-WATER (MLLW) DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN UP TO 3.8FT THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR  
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.  
LINGERING ELEVATED WATER-LEVELS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH  
TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS IT WILL BE  
WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
FOWLER  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
THIS FIRE WEATHER SECTION WILL BE SHORTER THAN NORMAL AS WE  
ACTUALLY HAVE SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.  
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY  
AND FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES  
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 40-55 PERCENT TODAY, AND THEN 50-65  
PERCENT ON FRIDAY (AREAS NORTH OF I-10 WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF  
THOSE RANGES, AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE ON THE UPPER  
END). ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN  
MOISTURE, VERY DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CONTINUED  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING  
RAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES  
OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN.  
 
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SE TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE IN A BURN BAN.  
 
FOWLER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 65 86 65 / 10 0 50 70  
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 67 85 69 / 10 0 40 60  
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 75 83 73 / 20 10 50 70  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...FOWLER  
AVIATION...ADAMS  
MARINE...FOWLER  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page