168
FXUS64 KHGX 190429
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
- HEAT WILL BE HAZARDOUS AND NEAR ADVISORY CRITIERIA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON
ANY GIVEN DAY, HEAT PRECAUTIONS/MESSAGING REMAIN THE SAME FOR
THOSE WITH PLANS OR WORKING OUTDOORS.
- GUIDANCE HINTING AT POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING. CHANCE
OF RAIN IS CONSIDERED LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
A MID/UPPER, ZONALLY ELONGATED RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS HAS BEGUN
ITS WESTWARD DRIFT AND IS AMPLIFYING AS IT DOES SO. THE PRIMARY
IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON THE WEDNESDAY ATMOSPHERE IS A GRADUAL
SHALLOWING OF LL ONSHORE FLOW. TUESDAY FEATURED DEEPER ONSHORE
FLOW (SFC TO AT LEAST 500 MB), ALLOWING FOR MORE CUMULUS AND EVEN
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. BUT WE
EXPECT THE MID-LEVELS (~500MB) TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
TRAJECTORY LATER ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO
LESSEN CUMULUS AND DECREASE (THOUGH PERHAPS NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE)
THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE HIGH
SHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER, DEEPENDING THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWN
TO 850MB AND LIMITING ONSHORE FLOW TO NEAR THE SFC. THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY DRY PROFILE, ALLOWING FOR LOWER DEW POINTS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE, DRIER AIR ALONG
WITH LESS CUMULUS AND STRONGER RIDGING WILL LIKELY GIVE
TEMPERATURES A BOOST, WITH MOST INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE 100 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LESS HUMIDITY, ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (ACTUAL TEMP 103+, HEAT INDEX 108+) IN SOME
AREAS. ONE LITTLE WILD CARD IN THE FORECAST ENTAILS VORT MAXES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK / WEEKEND. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCE FRIDAY EVENING. SO WE CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT THIS
PATTERN PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DESPITE THE OVERALL DRY
AND HOT SIGNAL.
THE DRY AND HOT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SO
BRACE YOURSELVES FOR CONTINUED HAZARDOUS HEAT. AUGUST IS GONNA
AUGUST.
SELF
AVIATION
(06Z TAF) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH SSW WINDS DECREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WSW DIRECTION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN PATCHY FOG/LOWER CIGS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACKING
OFF WITH ANY SIGNAL FOR CIG/VIS CONCERNS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
FOG AND LOWER CIGS IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
CIG/VIS REACHES MVFR CRITERIA-- CLOUD DECKS WILL BE MORE "FEW" AND
"SCT" IN NATURE, AND ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PATCHY. TOMORROW,
WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND VEER TO THE S. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS FOR RAIN, THE CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECIP REMAINS LOW, THOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER NEAR
THE COAST.
MLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE BAYS, AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF. SEAS IN THE OPEN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 2-4 FEET
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 100 79 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 80 99 78 / 20 20 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 84 92 84 / 10 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...CMW
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