567
FXUS64 KHGX 181144
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
544 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER (NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES) WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON A DAILY
BASIS.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL TODAY, THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY, BRINGING A STRONGER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM AND BENIGN CONDITIONS THOUGH MID WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL STILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S/80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM FOR TODAY, THOUGH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR PATCHY FOG. ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
DENSE POCKETS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT THE TYPICAL
FOG-PRONE SPOTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES, SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES & PVA IMPULSES WILL
PASS OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT NECESSARY FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT THESE RAIN CHANCES TO RISE FURTHER THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SE TEXAS. THE FROPA ITSELF APPEAR TO BE MORE "MESSY"
COMPARED TO THE "CLEAN" & FASTER SCENARIOS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWED IN
DAYS PRIOR. BEST TIMING HAS IT PROGGED TO ENTER SE TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING, DUE TO A SHORTWAVE SPANNING CENTRAL/DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE FRONT THEN SLOWS DOWN OVER SE
TEXAS, BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE STATE,
FORCING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
THE GREATEST FORCING AND LIFT SEEMS TO OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LREF STILL
SHOWS BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KNOTS, THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LACK-
LUSTER, GENERALLY UNDER 1200 J/KG. COULD GET A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.
STILL, WE'LL HAVE PWS OF AT LEAST 1.3" DURING THE DAY, UP TO AROUND
1.7-1.9" IN THE EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
CURRENTLY WPC HAS AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE US-59 CORRIDOR UNDER A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THIS AREA ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.5-1.0 INCH(ES), THOUGH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 3-HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE OVER SE TEXAS IS AROUND 4-6 INCHES, THOUGH THE 1-HR FFG IS
JUST A TAD ABOVE 3 INCHES IN SOME PLACES WITHIN THE OUTLOOKED AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WE'LL SEE SOME MINOR STREET
FLOODING & PONDING ON ROADWAYS, MAINLY IN MORE URBAN AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.
SATURDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER AS MODELS SHOW A TAD HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FRONT BEING OFF THE COAST BY THIS POINT (THOUGH IT COULD STALL
OFFSHORE). DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE BETTER PORTION OF SUNDAY
BEING DRIER TOO, THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS SLATED TO MAKE A RETURN IN
THE EVENING. MODELS ARE OUT OF PHASE AGAIN AT THIS POINT, MAKING IT
HARD TO GIVE SPECIFICS FOR MONDAY, BUT ON THE WHOLE IT APPEARS TO BE
WARMER AND WETTER WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING ONSHORE & LIFTING NORTH.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE STILL PINGING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL-
DOWN AROUND/AFTER THANKSGIVING, THOUGH THAT'S ABOUT AS MUCH THAT
COULD BE SAID ABOUT IT THIS FAR OUT.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
MIX OF STRATUS AND FOG BRINGING IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF LFK-CXO-VCT AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CLEARER SKY BUT STILL SOME PATCHY FOG COASTWARD. TOPLINES DO BEST
TO LINE UP WITH OBS AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, MOST NOTABLY TO
BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC AT IAH. PREVAILING IS NOW VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING, BUT WITH STRATUS HANGING OUT NEARBY ON ALMOST ALL
SIDES, KEEP AN MVFR TEMPO FOR BRIEF CIGS.
AS WITH PAST DAYS, VFR SHOULD EMERGE AREA-WIDE BY LATE MORNING
WITH S -> SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER DARK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHTER
WINDS, SOME GUIDANCE IS GETTING QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG. FOR
NOW, WILL ALIGN WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE AND KEEP IMPACTS
MORE LIMITED TO HIGHER MVFR, WITH ONLY IFR TEMPOS AT KNOWN PROBLEM
SITES CXO/SGR. THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED THROUGH
THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TODAY. PATCHY FOG INLAND MAY SPILL INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN BAYS & UPPER SHIP CHANNEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS MAY ALSO BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING
BEACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH
ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY RETURNING WEDNESDAY, INCREASING INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE A TAD SLOW
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND, SHOULD THE FRONT STALL CLOSER
TO SHORE.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 85 66 83 68 / 10 10 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 86 68 84 68 / 0 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 71 80 71 / 0 10 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...03
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