156
FXUS64 KHGX 230516
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT WILL BE MINOR FLOODING/PONDING, BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
- MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AND ELEVATED TIDES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
THE BULK OF THE INTEREST THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
SO, WILL KEEP THE DISCUSSION BRIEF FOR TODAY'S WEATHER:
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE
REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
OVERALL: OUR FIRST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, IN SEVERAL WEEKS IS ARRIVING THIS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH
TEXAS. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THIS TIME RANGE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
POSSIBLE (LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN
ANOTHER PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT). RAINFALL
TOTALS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE UP TO 2-4",
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR WHERE STRONG MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.
VERY DRY GROUNDS (DUE TO WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR ZERO RAINFALL) WILL HELP ALLEVIATE SOME FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE 1-HR FFG IS GENERALLY 3-5" AND THE 3-HR FFG IS 4-6",
BUT HIGH RAIN RATES OR STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA COULD
APPROACH THESE LIMITS. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE MINOR
FLOODING/PONDING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FINER DETAILS/HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, LOCATION, AND TOTALS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE COMES INTO PLAY.
WPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SE TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, AND A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON SATURDAY WITH THE SLIGHT RISK GENERALLY FOR MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER (INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METRO).
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
MORE DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO MAKE SURE TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AS FLOODING
CAN BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE AT NIGHT. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
CALLS TO ACTION THAT ARE USEFUL DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR: MAKE
SURE TO TURN OFF/BRING INSIDE ANY LAWN INFLATABLES AS THEY WILL BE
MORE VULNERABLE TO GUSTY WINDS, AND TO UNPLUG OR ENSURE PROPER
ENCLOSURES OF OUTDOOR POWER STRIPS THAT COULD BE EXPOSED TO
RAINFALL/PONDING.
--
A BREAKDOWN BY TIME PERIOD FOLLOWS:
FRIDAY: A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION LEADING TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING SURGE IN MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE
GULF. PWATS ACROSS SE TEXAS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6-1.9" FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COMBINE THE MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING PVA FROM THE SYSTEM TO NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
POINT, AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-45 MAY HAVE BETTER COVERAGE, BUT
REALLY ANY SPOT IN THE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO WATCH FOR MINOR STREET
FLOODING IF A DOWNPOUR OCCURS OVER A POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF SE TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ON
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF LULL
IN ACTIVITY FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER OUR
INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE OUT WEST TO THE HILL COUNTY WHERE A
POTENTIAL MCS WILL BE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AS THAT UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND APPROACHING OUR AREA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS/NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT THANKS TO A SPLITTING JET
OVERHEAD, AND HIGH PWATS ALL SUPPORT AN MCS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
NIGHT (INITIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY). CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS THIS LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE BRAZOS VALLEY AS
EARLY AS 2-4AM SATURDAY MORNING, BUT A STRONG MCS LIKE THIS CAN
SOMETIMES SPEED ITSELF UP SO I DON'T WANT OUT RULE IT ARRIVING
SLIGHTLY EARLIER.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT: THE MCS THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE MAKINGS ITS WAY THROUGH SE
TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING (POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST). MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. THE
RAINFALL FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS (UP TO 1-2" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS) WILL GENERALLY BE MANAGEABLE DUE TO DRY SOILS, BUT HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING/PONDING. WHILE THE MCS
WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST, LINGERING HIGH MOISTURE AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE TEXAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM
SUNDAY MORNING, ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, BUT EXACT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THIS FRONT WILL ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL FORCE
OF UPLIFT ENHANCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. BETWEEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
AND THEN THE POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA
WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
ABOVE OVERVIEW, WPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING ON SATURDAY WITH AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE BRAZOS RIVE
IN THE SLIGHT RISK. AGAIN, THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE MINOR
FLOODING/PONDING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE, BUT A FEW INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF RAIN RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH OR
STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME SPOT.
SUNDAY INTO MIDWEEK: WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY, THERE ACTUALLY WON'T BE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE
IN TEMPERATURES COMPARING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN FACT, DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW OR MID 80S ON SUNDAY).
THIS IS BECAUSE THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS MORE PACIFIC-
BASED COMPARED TO TRADITIONAL COLD FRONTS. A GRADUAL, SLIGHT WARM-
UP IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON THE
HORIZON, POSSIBLY PASSING THROUGH SE TEXAS MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK - BUT
EXACT DETAILS ARE FUZZY, SO LET'S FOCUS ON THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM
FIRST.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME E/SE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURSDAY
ADAMS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE REACHING 15-20KT BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY, AND THEN INCREASE TO 20-25KT AND GUSTS TO 30KT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER WINDS WITH SEAS 4-7FT FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BUT THE ELEVATED SEAS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT, BUT WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH
OFF THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ARE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST. A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES, AND ELEVATED
WATER-LEVELS (ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TIDES AROUND 3.0-3.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN-
LOW- LOW-WATER (MLLW) DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN UP TO 3.8FT THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
LINGERING ELEVATED WATER-LEVELS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AS IT WILL BE
WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA.
FOWLER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
THIS FIRE WEATHER SECTION WILL BE SHORTER THAN NORMAL AS WE
ACTUALLY HAVE SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 40-55 PERCENT TODAY, AND THEN 50-65
PERCENT ON FRIDAY (AREAS NORTH OF I-10 WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF
THOSE RANGES, AND AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE ON THE UPPER
END). ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, VERY DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CONTINUED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF SE TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE IN A BURN BAN.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 65 86 65 / 10 0 50 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 67 85 69 / 10 0 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 75 83 73 / 20 10 50 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...FOWLER
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