712  
FXUS64 KHGX 221116  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
616 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS. TWO AREAS OF  
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. FIRST,  
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL START AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND  
GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS.  
ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO CLL  
LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY REACH UTS AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. AS  
THE RAIN FROM THE GULF SPREADS INLAND OVERNIGHT, IFR CEILINGS ARE  
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. 22  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER  
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH  
SUN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RADARS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY  
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND ALSO OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. OUR AREA  
SHOULD SEE SLOWLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND  
AS WE HEAD ON INTO TONIGHT (VALUES GENERALLY LOWER UP NORTH AND HIGHER  
AT THE COAST/OFFSHORE) AS A COASTAL TROF AND SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO  
GET ORGANIZED OFF THE TEXAS COAST. MUCH OF OUR AREA COULD SEE A  
LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SO WENT WITH SLIGHTLY  
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY  
AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,  
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOWS REMAIN IN  
OUR VICINITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC  
HURRICANE WILLA (A NEAR CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 155 MPH WINDS OFF  
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 1 AM, AND MORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE  
LANDFALL) WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. ANTICIPATE RAINS TO COME  
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH MOST  
LOCATIONS RECEIVING FOUR DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES  
(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MIGHT OCCUR DEPENDING ON WHERE SOME OF THE  
SURFACE FEATURES SET UP AND/OR MOVE INLAND AND WHERE ANY TRAINING  
AND/OR SLOW MOVING STORMS DEVELOP). QUIET WEATHER IS STILL IN STORE  
FOR THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS  
THIS MESS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. 42  
 
MARINE...  
SEAS ARE STILL 7-8 FT IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS, SO ADVISORIES WILL  
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM TODAY. MODERATE  
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL GULF  
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN  
THE WESTERN GULF WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND WAVES AND INCREASE RAIN  
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED AGAIN TONIGHT  
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT PERIODS OF CAUTION FLAGS AND  
ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF COASTAL LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PROGRESS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. 22  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 53 65 55 62 / 30 50 40 40 60  
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 55 64 57 66 / 30 60 50 50 70  
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 61 67 65 72 / 30 60 50 50 70  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM  
FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL  
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP  
CHANNEL TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO  
FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO  
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM  
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...42  
AVIATION/MARINE...22  
 
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