255
FXUS64 KHGX 061900
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
100 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN ON SUNDAY.
- SEA FOG WILL REMAIN AN INTERMITTENT ISSUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
GALVESTON BAY AREA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW 70F. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS WE
PROGRESS THRU THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SAG INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
POINTING TOWARD A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) THAT SOME OF THE STORM SEGMENTS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERALL, MOST
AREAS SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.5" RAINFALL TOTALS, THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR *LOCALIZED* HIGHER SWATHS (OF SAY 2-4")
SHOULD A FAVORED JET COUPLET MATERIALIZE ALOFT AS A FEW DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SUGGEST. IN THAT INSTANCE, WE'D LOOK FOR POTENTIAL REGINERATING/TRAINING
CELLS IN THE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD THERETICALLY STALL INLAND AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN LOSES SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD "PUSH" WITH TIME. HOWEVER,
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SOUTHWARD AND CURRENTLY
DEPICTS STALLING BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST. THROW IN THE MESOSCALE
AND RAIN COOLED AIR UPSTREAM, I WOULDN'T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF
IT GETS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES AND INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THRU
THE MORNING. I LOWERED POPS A BIT AND ACTUALLY TINKERED WITH GOING
EVEN LOWER...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP FIRST, SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER IMPUSLES TO DEAL WITH.
THE NEXT MID-UPPER TROF KICKS OUT OF BAJA MONDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS
TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (WEST) THRU WED NIGHT (EAST). THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PROVIDE OUR NEXT SHOT OF TSTMS LATE TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DRIER, BREEZIER, AND MORE SEASONABLE WX WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CEILINGS WILL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH HIGH END IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CIGS (BETWEEN 900-1200FT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
14-15Z, WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE GLS WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. GLS
WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH PATCHY SEA FOG LOWERING VISIBILITY TO
1-4MI THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AREA-WIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00-03Z WITH CIGS TO AROUND 2000FT,
AND THEN TO IFR BY 03-06Z WITH CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 700FT THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET,
BUT THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 10KT THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW
AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF UTS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS, BUT DO HAVE A
PROB30 OF -TSRA AT UTS AND CLL TONIGHT. CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THEN STALLS ACROSS SE TEXAS.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
GENERAL: A LONG FETCH OF 10-20KT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRETCHED FROM OUR COASTAL WATERS WELL OUT INTO THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS.
SEA FOG: FOG WILL REMAIN AN INTERMITTENT ISSUE AT TIMES, PRIMARILY
IN THE GULF WATERS OFF OF GALVESTON, AND MAYBE EXTREME SOUTHERLY
PARTS OF GALVESTON BAY IN THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS IS LOW AND VISIBILITES WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER LLVL WINDS TONIGHT, AND SOME
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, SUSPECT WE'LL CONTINUE WITH
HIT/MISS FOG ISSUES UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT FULLY CLEARS THINGS OUT
WED.
PRECIP: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS >30KT IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER CELLS (SATURDAY NIGHT). THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST INLAND, BUT STORM OUTFLOWS MAY GIVE IT A NUDGE INTO THE BAYS
AND/OR NEARSHORE GULF. PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD WANE
SUNDAY AND THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. WE'LL
BE KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY.
SPRING BREAK BEGINS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. JUST A
GENTLE REMINDER THAT THERE ARE ALMOST ALWAYS RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACH. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND AWAY FROM ROCKS, JETTIES, AND
PIERS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY STRONGEST. ALSO AVOID
SWIMMING ON THE EASTER/WESTERN TIPS OF GALVESTON ISLAND. 47
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE, AND SHOULD MOSTLY STAY THAT
WAY. BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS WITH THE INCOMING WX. WE
COULD SEE A FEW INSTANCES OF RISES TO ACTION TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE
NEAR, OR UPSTREAM, OF WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURS IN A SHORT
TIME PERIOD. THE LATEST RIVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN MIGHT BE THE PLACE TO MONITOR. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 71 84 58 / 20 40 90 80
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 73 85 68 / 20 20 80 90
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 70 76 67 / 20 10 60 80
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...47
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page