805
FXUS64 KHGX 082325
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STALLED FRONT NEAR THE COAST LIFTS BACK NORTH TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE.
- MOSTLY CLOUDY, WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED STORMS PUSH THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER, BREEZY, AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SHALLOW FRONT REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE, A
MESSY MID-LEVEL, AND A FAVORABLE JET PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED STORMS. GREATEST
CONCENTRATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA,
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
FURTHER NORTH. LOOK FOR THIS PRECIP TO WANE LATER IN THE DAY. THE
FRONT ITSELF SHOULD LIFT BACK INLAND TONIGHT, AND WITH THE WET
GROUND, ANTICIPATE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MONDAY &
TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS, MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
MID-UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER AS IT BEGINS FILLING AND EJECTING EASTWARD. WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
DRAWING SOME ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WE'LL HAVE A 40-50KT LLJ IN PLACE AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AS THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE AND
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR WNW AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG-SEVERE), FOLLOWED
BY SOME POTENTIAL WRAP-AROUND LIGHT RAIN FOR SOME SPOTS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THOUGH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE A POSSIBILITY,
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHEREAS FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES SHOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED, IF ANY AT ALL.
COLD FRONT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BRINGING BREEZY, DRIER,
AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE OVERALL WX
STILL LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT. 47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT TAF TIME FROM LIFR (ARM) TO VFR
(GLS ET AL). WHILE AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING TO
HANDLE PRECISE CHANGES, SHOULD SETTLE INTO WIDESPREAD IFR, AND
LIKELY EVEN LIFR LATE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND OPTIMISTICALLY TAKING ALL
SITES TO LOW VFR FOR MID-AFTERNOON (TEMPORARILY, ANYWAY...BUT
THAT'S A MATTER FOR FUTURE CYCLES). TOMORROW WILL NOT BE TOTALLY
DRY, BUT WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EAST OF ALL TERMINALS, ONLY
HAD CONFIDENCE FOR ONE PROB30 FOR -SHRA AT CXO AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A STALLED COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THIS OCCURS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE FROM THE MID
BAYS SOUTHWARD. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD LATE MORNING
MONDAY. FOG IS AGAIN PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT IT IS NOT LOOKING AS
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE EXCEPT MAYBE THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY
LOW VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. COMBINATION OF
SCA/SCEC CONDITIONS PROBABLY NEEDED BY TUE EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS
25G30-35KT AND 6-10FT SEAS IN ITS WAKE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES
THURS NIGHT. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 84 69 83 / 20 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 69 83 71 83 / 20 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 68 76 69 76 / 20 20 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...47
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