526  
FXUS64 KHGX 231130  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
630 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
   
AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]
 
 
LIFR TO VFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE  
METRO AND NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE  
IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP  
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF LBX THIS MORNING, BUT  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATING NEARLY ALL TERMINALS TO  
SEE SOME CONVECTION BESIDES POTENTIALLY CLL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST  
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY  
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, STUCK WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, WITH  
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS  
THAT DEVELOP. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND STRONGER STORMS.  
 
HATHAWAY  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019/
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF SE TX THIS  
MORNING BESIDES ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE  
LOW 80S. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AND NORTH OF A LINE  
FROM JACKSON TO FORT BEND TO LIBERTY COUNTY. RADAR IMAGERY IS  
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME STREAMER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF  
WATERS THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW, TT WRF, AND  
HRRR HAVE ALSO SHOWED STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AROUND  
GALVESTON BAY BY MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS  
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AN  
AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE GOES-16 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER  
FIELD SHOWS UP TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG  
THIS AXIS THAT STRETCHES INTO PORTIONS OF BRAZORIA, GALVESTON, AND  
CHAMBERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL, ANTICIPATE MOST OF  
THE PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM  
WASHINGTON TO MONTGOMERY TO POLK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS,  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE  
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING  
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARRIS,  
LIBERTY, AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES, SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER  
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DELAY ANY IMPROVEMENTS TO FLOOD  
CONDITIONS. WITH THE HELP OF CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY  
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. TONIGHT, LOOK FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER INTO THE LOW 70S TO 80S.  
 
HATHAWAY  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING]
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BROADLY SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL  
BE THE MAIN FORCE DRIVING A DRY START TO THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BE  
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)  
VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND THE GREATER HOUSTON  
METRO AREA TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING DOWN THE CHANCES OF  
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY  
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MID-WEEK. DESPITE THIS, THE TYPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS  
IN THE MORNING HOURS WHICH PUSH FURTHER INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON  
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD  
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD,  
EVENTUALLY LENDING WAY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY ZONAL  
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GULF COAST BY THURSDAY. AN AREA OF  
WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING, AND A RETURN TO ELEVATED PWS AND MORE  
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION SOON FOLLOWS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE  
THAT NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A WET ONE, AS ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED  
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROVE TO PRODUCE MORE  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
CADY  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF  
THE WEEK, WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT NIGHT. SCEC CRITERIA  
MAY BE REACHED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WIND SPEEDS DO  
NOT REALLY INCREASE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS BETTER  
MOISTURE RETURNS OVER THE UPPER TX COAST.  
 
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. AT GALVESTON  
BAY ENTRANCE, TIDE LEVELS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 3.4 FEET ABOVE MLLW  
THIS MORNING DURING HIGH TIDE. NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT TIDE LEVELS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO NEAR 3.0 FEET  
BRIEFLY BEFORE LOWERING. THEREFORE, HAVE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING THE  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT PAST 00Z TUESDAY FOR NOW.  
 
HATHAWAY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 73 92 71 93 / 20 10 10 0 10  
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 90 72 89 / 50 10 0 0 20  
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 87 80 88 / 40 0 0 10 20  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...08  
 
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