271
FXUS64 KHGX 150600
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
100 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DAY WITH WARM AND CONDITIONS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES.
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEEKEND.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A
GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TIL THINGS COOL DOWN AS THE MUCH AWAITED COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, COASTAL TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. FURTHER INLAND, AFTER MIDNIGHT, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A
THIN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWER & ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE WITH THE INCOMING FRONT.
RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR THE MOST PART.
THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SUPPORTED BY A
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A 1040MB HIGH TRACKING THROUGH THE CNTL CONUS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER AND COLDER...AND AS SUCH I'VE
MADE THE ASSOCIATED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FRI-SUN. WIND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT AS BREEZY-WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A GRADUAL WARMING/MODIFYING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGING TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT JUST TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND NOT TO THE WARM CONDITIONS WE'RE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING. 47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE CALM AND VRB
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SE BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND THEN
BE VRB ONCE AGAIN BY THE EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
AT CLL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A 6SM BR WITH LOW BKN CIGS
WAS INCLUDED TO HINT AT THAT POTENTIAL. TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE, RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, VCSH WAS INCLUDED FOR GLS, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A PROB30 OR TEMPO FOR THE NEXT CYCLE ALONG
WITH THE INCLUSION OF PARTS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY. JMG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE, MORESO IN THE GULF WATERS,
LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE OF 20-30 KNOT
NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY, AND FURTHER INCREASING TO CLOSE TO
GALE CONDITIONS AND MUCH HIGHER SEAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. A GALE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 1PM FRIDAY. DETAILS IN REGARDS TO
THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND WIND STRENGTH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
MARINERS SHOULD NOTE THAT TRENDS HAVE HAVE BEEN FOR A FASTER,
STRONGER FRONT. THIS WATCH AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED BACK TO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FREEPORT WESTWARD,
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. 47
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
NORTH WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE PROBABLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THOUGH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, RH VALUES APPEAR TO BE ABOVE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA. THAT SAID, CAUTION IS STRONGLY ADVISED WITH
OUTDOOR BURNING. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 63 69 50 / 0 40 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 69 76 53 / 20 20 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 74 80 61 / 30 60 50 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...47
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