830
FXUS64 KHGX 160540
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND WINDY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COLD FRONT.
SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT COULD BE LIFTED (HALLOWEEN YARD DECOR,
ETC).
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
TODAY INTO SATURDAY FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK, BUT JUST SEASONABLE IN
NATURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR NORTHERN CWA
AND SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED 20-30MPH SPEEDS ANTICIPATED
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S-UPPER 70S
(LARGELY STEADY WITH INCOMING CAA). IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A GREAT
WEATHER WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
ONE NOTE FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS...BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH
ANYTHING THAT MIGHT CAUSE A SPARK OR FLAMES - THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO MAINLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST,
IT'S EXPANSIVE ENOUGH WHERE WE'LL STILL BE ON ITS OUTER PERIPHERY
MOST OF THE WEEK. PREVAILING EAST WINDS SHOULD RECYCLE SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION FROM TIME-TO-TIME AND KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY IN CHECK. EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST. 47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT VRB WINDS PREVAILING. A COLD
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS, THEN THROUGH THE METRO AREA HEADING INTO SUNRISE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MVFR CIGS PUSH SE THROUGH THE REGION, AND
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY, AND INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. MLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS A FRONT
BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT, BUT STEADILY INCREASE AS THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WATERS
WEST OF FREEPORT TOWARD MID MORNING...EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE GALVESTON AREA LATER TODAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARMER SHELF
WATERS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTS TO
35-45KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, MAYBE HIGHER AT SOME OF THE
ELEVATED PLATFORMS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-13FT BY TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN SLOWLY TRENDING DOWNWARD LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION. 47
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT. WINDS OF 15-30 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE HIGHEST WEST
OF I-45 AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. THOUGH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, RH
VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE WILL BE ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. THAT SAID, CAUTION IS STRONGLY ADVISED WITH OUTDOOR
BURNING. THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE INDICATES A HIGH TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 49 67 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 52 70 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 71 60 73 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ436>439.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...47
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