861  
FXUS64 KHGX 140520  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
1120 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
CLOUD COVER SCATTERED OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS NORTH OF  
I-10 OBSERVING MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES. GUSTY WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, COURTESY OF A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE CLOSER TO  
THE EVENING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CLOUD COVER  
MOVING IN FROM SOUTH TEXAS AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE  
SURFACE HIGH INITIATES ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTURE RETURN. THIS COMES  
AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL  
MOVE NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN COOLER AIR,  
KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL BECOME  
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH WAA  
EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. NOT EXPECTING  
MUCH RANGE IN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW  
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO  
THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.  
 
ADAMS  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
SATURDAY STARTS OFF WITH A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ONGOING AHEAD OF  
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL  
BE WARM AND UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY WITH LIKELY SOME SHOWER AND STORM  
ACTIVITY ONGOING TO START THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.  
THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, WIND SHEAR, AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC  
SCALE LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TOUGH TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK  
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MID-DAY AND EXTENDS INTO  
THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS  
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL  
BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S AND LOWS  
DROPPING INTO UPPER 20S/30S INLAND FOR MONDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW  
WILL RESUME ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  
WE WILL SEE A SHORT LIVED AND GRADUAL WARMUP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH  
MOISTURE RETURNING AS WELL GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A SECOND  
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTING  
EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT WITH HIGHS  
WEDNESDAY ONLY REACHING AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. IT  
WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER BY WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH A HARD  
FREEZE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHWEST AREAS WITH LOWS AROUND 20 AND  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND VEER A BIT NORTHEASTERLY,  
BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT COME DOWN AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED, SO HAVE  
HAD TO ADJUST THAT TREND IN THIS CYCLE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS  
STILL DIFFICULTY IN PICKING OUT THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE LOWERING  
OF CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. STILL VERY HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN THAT VFR OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE  
MORNING, BECOME MVFR, AND EVEN COME TO HIGH IFR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER, THE SPECIFIC HOUR AT WHICH THESE TRANSITIONS OCCUR IS  
STILL UP FOR REFINEMENT. STILL HAVE PROB30S FOR SOME LIGHT  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE HOUSTON AND GALVESTON TERMINALS.  
FINALLY, WITH A LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVERNIGHT, HAVE  
INTRODUCED A LLWS MENTION AT IAH IN THE FINAL HOURS OF THE  
EXTENDED.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS. ONGOING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE  
OVERNIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. BOTH WILL  
SLIGHTLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY, BUT SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR  
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE WINDS RESUME LATE  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AND  
RAIN CHANCES. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCES OF DENSE FOG FAIRLY LOW.  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A  
RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN  
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY PENCILED IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. 47  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 37 55 51 70 / 0 30 30 40  
HOUSTON (IAH) 42 63 57 76 / 0 30 40 80  
GALVESTON (GLS) 49 66 62 71 / 0 30 20 40  
 
 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ350-355.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ370-375.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...ADAMS  
LONG TERM....WOOD  
AVIATION...LUCHS  
MARINE...47  
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