893
FXUS64 KHGX 222317
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF DRY PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN AFTERWARDS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- NEXT FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS, WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT. LIGHT SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH OVERALL COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH OF IT. IT'LL STILL FAIRLY WARM THOUGH
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 70S/LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL FEEL A
MORE SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BE IN PLACE ALOFT ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WATERS SHOULD LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE 1-4 DEGREES
COOLER, THOUGH STILL IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SEE A MORE NOTICEABLE RISE WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH
EARLY MORNING LOWS FORECASTED IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FILL THROUGH THE PLAINS. PWS SHOULD CLIMB TO 1.3" AND
PEAK AT UPWARDS OF 1.9", GIVING PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LEADING UP TO A COLD FRONT. SE TEXAS REMAINS ON
THE PERIPHERAL OF THE FRONT-RIGHT ENTRANCE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THOUGH AS MENTIONED
BEFORE, SE TEXAS DOES REMAIN RELATIVELY DISTANT FROM THIS FEATURE
WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER PVA/OMEGA STILL MUCH FURTHER NORTH IN
MODELS. THOUGH GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDED SUPPORT FROM A 25-
40 KNOT LLJ, THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF OUR CWA. BULK
SHEAR RANGES FROM 40-55 KNOTS, THOUGH INSTABILITY IS STILL LACKING.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR MONDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY,
FORECASTED BETWEEN 0.5-1.25 INCHES ON MONDAY, THOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WPC HAS THE NORTHERN TIP
OF SE TEXAS UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) EXTENDING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA. DRY SOILS WILL HELP MITIGATE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
THOUGH IT WON'T STOP IT ENTIRELY IF THIS RAIN QUICKLY FALLS OVER A
SHORT PERIOD OR IF STORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME AREA.
PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH ITS TYPICALLY ISOLATED IN CIRCUMSTANCES SUCH AS THIS, IF IT
EVEN HAPPENS AT ALL. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS AS WELL WITH
SPC PLACING MOST AREAS NORTH OF US-59 UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TAPERS OFF INTO TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FURTHER AWAY TO THE NE. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOW/BRIEFLY STALL
OVER SE TEXAS ON TUESDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE WE'LL SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND
DRIER AIR FILLING IN ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING BULK
SHEAR OF 35-45 KNOTS, THOUGH LARGELY DUE TO SPEED SHEAR RATHER THAN
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHOULD REINFORCE THE SLOWED/STALLED FRONT, PUSHING IT OFF THE
COAST BY AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW SOME OF THE
TIMING PLAYS OUT, WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE
FROPA. COOLER AND MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS STILL SLATED FOR
THANKSGIVING. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, WE'LL SEE ONSHORE FLOW RETURN AND
TEMPERATURES RISE ONCE AGAIN.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. FOR AVIATION
PURPOSES, THIS IS MAINLY A WIND FORECAST AS DIRECTIONS VEER FROM
THE NNE TONIGHT, TO THE ENE TOWARD MID MORNING, THEN AROUND TO THE
SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL SEE SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY FILLING BACK IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN NORTHEAST/EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. WIND
SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE
SUNDAY, RISING INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD AS ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS OVER SE TEXAS. A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT
WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 75 62 80 / 0 0 20 80
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 77 63 83 / 0 0 10 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 75 69 79 / 0 0 10 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
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