638
FXUS64 KHGX 191131
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING THEIR FIRST 90-DEGREE DAYS OF THE
YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY QUIET THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WITH RIDGING ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS TOPPING OFF AROUND 595-596 DAM. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN BOTH
THE GEFS M-CLIMATE AND NAEFS CLIMATE PERCENTILES. HEIGHTS OVER SE
TEXAS WON'T BE AS POTENT, BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 14-20C,
REACHING THE 90TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BASED ON
NAEFS. ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) IS STILL SHOWING VALUES OF
0.70-0.95 FOR MAX TEMPERATURE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SHIFT
OF TALES VALUES APPROACHING 1-2 OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS
DURING THIS PERIOD. AGAIN, THIS IS ALL OCCURING IN THE CONTEXT OF
WEST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PWS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES.
BOTTOM LINE, THE SIGNAL FOR HEAT REMAINS PRESENT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 8 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOME
DISTURBANCES & IMPULSES TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH TOWARDS SE TEXAS AS MONDAY. COULD STALL OUT
AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA, BUT IN EITHER SUCH CASE I WOUDN'T
EXPECT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE, THOUGH
WE SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPERATURES DECREASE NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL WARM CONDITIONS AND SLIM RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S/80S THIS AFTERNOON.
RISING MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO USHER IN SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST PERIOD IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 90S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES EASE OFF SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN
IN THE 70S/80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOMS IN THE VICINITY. PATCHY INLAND FOG
COULD SPILLOVER INTO PORTIONS IN THE UPPER BAYS AND CHANNELS NIGHTLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY SEA FOG THIS
WEEKEND.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 56 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 83 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 65 78 66 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...LISNEY
MARINE...03
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