618
FXUS64 KHGX 210518
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1118 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE ARRIVAL
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT WITH IT NNW WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPS. CLEAR SKIES AND NNW WINDS WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF SE TEXAS. MAKE
SURE TO BUNDLE UP BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SCHOOL OR WORK THURSDAY
MORNING, AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR THAT MATTER, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ONLY A TOUCH WARMER.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THURSDAY
WILL FEATURE SIMILAR WEATHER, THOUGH A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LOSE THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO CLEAR.
ADAMS
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO PUSH A WEAK, DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SE TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LARGELY CONFIDED TO AREAS NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND MAY HELP AMPLIFY THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LREF ENSEMBLE, WHICH
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY GREATER SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PINEY WOODS AREA TO OUR
NORTHEAST, TO THE MID/UPPER 70S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES NEAR
EDNA/PALACIOS.
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL SLOWLY ESTABLISH ONSHORE FLOW INTO SATURDAY, FACILITATING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. PWS ARE
LOW, BUT ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRICKLE UP ABOVE 1" BY NEXT WEEK. LREF
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS FOCUSED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, WITH 65-70% LOW LEVEL RH. WITH ISENTROPIC LIFTING IN
PLACE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO PEAK ON MONDAY, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.
THE SLEW OF LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES/TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS/NORTHERN PLAINS, BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING MORE
PROMINENT AROUND MID WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SE TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA BEFORE SUBSEQUENTLY
DRIFTING NORTH. WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER AND DRIER
WITH THIS BOUNDARY, IT WILL STILL BE WEAK/DIFFUSE IN NATURE. THE
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ARE CONFINED TO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, WPC'S
500MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS THE IN DOMINANT CLUSTERS, INDICATIVE OF HIGHER
HEIGHTS. BOTTOM LINE, THIS NEXT FRONT IS POISED TO BRING A MODEST
COOLDOWN, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO 50S/LOWER 60S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
CLUSTER 1 OF THE LREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FEATURES LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. WPC'S 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALY CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY
WHEN LOOKING AT CLUSTERS 2 & 3. THESE LOWER HEIGHTS/NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES AMONG ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING. TAKING AT LOOK AT ENSEMBLE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FOR KGLS, THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT
MOISTURE WON'T DROP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THURSDAY (DAY 9). ALL OF
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT STRONGER FRONT/COOL OFF REMAINS ON
THE HORIZON, BEYOND THE CURRENT 7 DAY FORECAST.
03
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN, GIVING SKC AND LIGHT, FAIRLY VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGHOUT. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY MORE NORTHERLY THAN
ANYTHING OVERNIGHT, BACKING TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MID-DAY, AND
WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST BY EVENING (BEFORE GOING TO CALM AFTER SUNSET,
ANYWAY).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 9
FEET. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, THOUGH
CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE WARRANTED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RETURNS FRIDAY EVENING, THEN STRENGTHENS
INTO NEXT WEEK, NECESSITATING CAUTION FLAGS OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AT TIMES.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 38 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 44 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 68 55 71 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...03
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