934
FXUS64 KHGX 200459
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1059 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND
MORNING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(SEE DISCUSSION).
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
BRINGING COOLER & DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF AND BAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
WHEN I FIRST SAT DOWN AT THE FORECAST DESK THIS EVENING, I THOUGHT
I'D HAVE THE PRIVILEGE OF WORKING ON A RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
FORWARD FORECAST. BUT THE SHALLOW CHILLY AIR LOOMING TO OUR NORTH
SAID "NO EASY FORECASTS ALLOWED!" THUS, WE HAVE A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
THE CHILLY AIR IS BEHIND A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH TEXAS. IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THIS FRONT WAS EXPECTED TO
WASHOUT NEAR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BUT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS FRONT COULD PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. GIVEN
THE HISTORY OF OVERPERFORMING SHALLOW CHILLY AIRMASSES, WE OPTED
TO GIVE THESE COLDER MODELS SOME WEIGHT IN TODAY'S FORECAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST
HIGHS NEAR 80. BUT FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WE ARE NOW
FORECASTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
I-10! SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THANKS TO MODEST LIFT BEING INTRODUCED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATMOSPHERE. MAY ALSO HAVE A LITTLE OVERRUNNING
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
BEFORE MOVING ON, LET'S TALK ABOUT FOG. AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY
DURING THE MORNING, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY WILD CARD IS IF THE NAM IS CORRECT, WHICH BRINGS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD
TECHNICALLY LESSEN THE FOG RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, WE ARE NOT THINKING THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE BEST
CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
COUNTIES.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, DRIER AIR, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
INTO CONUS FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE STRONG. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE TOWARDS E CONUS. BUT I STILL
CAN'T HELP BUT THINK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN THE NBM IS SELLING. SO I LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE
COOLER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S ON SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. AFTER THAT, IT APPEARS WARM AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS (WITH OVERCAST MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS DOWN TO 2000FT
AT LBX AND 200FT AT GLS (WITH PATCHY, DENSE FOG). EXPECTING MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DOWN TO 1500FT FOR IAH SOUTHWARDS BY 2-4Z,
THEN DOWN TO NEAR 500FT BETWEEN 5-7Z. AREAS OF FOG, BECOMING DENSE
AT TIMES, ARE ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL EXPAND TO CXO BY 6-9Z, AND THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO CLL/UTS BY
8-10Z (WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE).
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST OF THE AREA BY 15-18Z, THEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE GLS, WHICH MAY
REMAIN IN IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REGION TOMORROW DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF AND NEAR THE COAST. WE
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, WARMING WATER TEMPERATURES AND A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD POTENTIALLY MITIGATE THE FOG RISK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, WE ARE KEEPING AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
ON SATURDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING
NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY IN THE FRONT'S WAKE BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVER THE GULF, WINDS COULD
GUST TO GALE FORCE WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 6-10 FEET. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 58 68 55 75 / 0 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 79 64 80 / 10 40 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 74 64 74 / 10 30 10 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ350-355.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...SELF
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