668
FXUS64 KHGX 082252
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2022
AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]
SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR, SO IAH AND SOUTHWARD IS LIKELY DONE WITH
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE DAY. LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTING, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LBX
COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECREASED VISIBILITES FROM
10Z-12Z. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE ROLLS IN. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z AND
PUSHING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STICKING
WITH VCSH IN ALL OF THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SPARSE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO LINGER NEAR CLL/UTS A FEW
HOURS PAST SUNSET.
BATISTE
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2022/
SHORT TERM [THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]
SEEING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA/BAY BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES FURTHER INLAND. ALSO, SEEING TEMPS NEAR
100 WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. I THINK
TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. WE MAY HAVE SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS TOMORROW, SO THAT IS A DIFFERENCE
TO LOOK OUT FOR.
WOOD
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LVL INVERTED
TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT
VALUES (AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES) ALONG A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. IN
ADDITION TO A WELL SATURATED LAYER, DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN EFFICIENT
FORCING. HAVING SAID THAT, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENT SFC ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, WITH POPS LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UPPER-LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING BACK OUR TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
05
MARINE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNINGS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE TX COAST FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY, INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THURSDAY, BUT PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME-FRAME, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
05
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 103 78 100 77 / 20 20 10 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 99 77 96 75 / 20 30 10 50 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 92 83 92 82 / 10 20 20 40 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...05
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