533
FXUS64 KHGX 292333
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WE HAD WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER REPORTS OF 50-60MPH GENERALLY WITHIN HARRIS
COUNTY AND THE COAST. A PNS WAS ISSUED LISTED THE PRELIMINARY
WIND GUST SUMMARY.
- A LIGHT FREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- MARINE AREAS WILL SEE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6PM
THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS.
ALL WATERS WILL BE IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON TUESDAY. LOW WATER LEVELS IN THE BAYS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT BROUGHT WITH IT VERY GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF
30-40MPH WERE SEEN ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, BUT WE ALSO HAD
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 50-60MPH REPORTED IN HARRIS COUNTY AND ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS HAVE LOWERED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 20-30MPH. THESE
GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO THE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 6PM. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THESE WINDS WILL LOWER FAST ENOUGH THAT THE ADVISORY COULD BE
CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY, BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION AS IS. OVER THE WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE MARINE
SECTION.
THE FROPA DID USHER IN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WITH NOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA - THIS IS
ABOUT 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE BREEZY WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS LED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT
MOIST FUELS HAS LIMITED THE DANGER. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION.
THE COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF A LIGHT FREEZE NORTH OF CONROE TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S IN PORTIONS OF THE PINEY WOODS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-30S TO LOW 40S ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-10). WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE LARGELY
ENDED BY TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERING
LEADING TO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW 20S IN THE PINEY WOODS
AND MID TO UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THESE ARE BORDERLINE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CONDITIONS (<20 IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS, <25
ALONG THE I-10 AND SOUTHWARDS), BUT WITH THE EXPECTED LOWERING OF
THE WINDS I HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING. IF TEMPERATURES TREND
LOWER OR WINDS TREND HIGHER, THEN WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE LATER
TODAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE PINEY WOODS, AND THEN A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION (THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
HOUSTON METRO AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S). MOST OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY HAD THEIR
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JACKSON,
MATAGORDA, GALVESTON, AND COASTAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES. OUT OF THESE
REMAINING AREAS, MATAGORDA AND JACKSON COUNTIES MAY BE A
CONTENDER FOR A FREEZE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL FOREGO ISSUING
ANY PRODUCTS FOR THIS UPDATE, BUT A WATCH OR A WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED DURING FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THESE COUNTIES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE WARMING TREND GETS KICKED
INTO HIGH GEAR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOW 70S ON THURSDAY AND THEN LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. CANNOT
OUT-RULE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OR VIRGA ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL
TAKE AWHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RE-SATURATE AFTER THE DRIER
WEATHER AT THE START OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN A PACIFIC-
BASED AIRMASS RATHER THAN THE ARTIC AIRMASS FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT'S
FRONT, SO WHILE IT WILL BRING IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS, IT
WILL BE NOTHING LIKE THE COLD WE ARE SEEING NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GO FROM THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY TO THE MID OR UPPER 70S ON
SATURDAY.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE THIS EVENING INTO
THE TONIGHT. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST, WHERE
WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AS THE HIGH VFR CLOUD DECK
GRADUALLY BREAKS, YIELDING TO CLEARER SKIES TOMORROW. WINDS
TOMORROW REMAIN NORTHERLY, BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN TODAY,
AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
GALE CONDITIONS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLIER THIS
MORNING WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 50KT REPORTED AT OIL
PLATFORMS IN THE COASTAL WATERS, AND UP TO 35-45KT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND AT BUOY 19. THESE ELEVATED WINDS LED TO SEAS
OF 15FT RECORD AT BUOY 19 THIS MORNING. SINCE THESE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING, THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE WITH WINDS OF
15-20KT AND GUSTS TO 25-30KT IN THE BAYS, AND 25-30KT WITH GUSTS
TO 35KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SO, THE BAYS ARE NOW IN A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY, WITH THE
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 6PM THIS
EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
THE BAYS COULD BE DROPPED AS EARLY AS 6AM TUESDAY, BUT KEPT THE
CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION AS IS. AND WHILE THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW 20KT IN THE GULF WATERS BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY, THE SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE WITH LINGERING
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7FT POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON.
THE STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAS LED TO ABNORMALLY LOW WATER LEVELS
IN THE BAYS WITH LOW TIDE AS LOW AS -1.5FT MLLW AT MORGANS POINT
THIS MORNING. A LOW WATER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GALVESTON BAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT ABNORMALLY LOW TIDES MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO ABNORMALLY LOW
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. OBSERVATIONS DURING LOW TIDE THIS MORNING IN
MATAGORDA BAY WERE DOWN TO AROUND -0.7FT MLLW, AND SIMILAR LOW
TIDES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10-15 WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT, SO SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AT
TIMES. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THANKS TO THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
NIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THE ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
FOWLER
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF LAST NIGHT'S
COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 20-35% WERE SEEN TODAY, BUT MOIST FUELS LIMITED THE FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-30%,
ESPECIALLY AREA WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER WHICH MAY DROP INTO THE
TEENS. THESE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE DRYING OF
FUELS, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THEN 10-15MPH.
SO, IN REVIEW TODAY = LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT MOIST FUELS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY = LOW RH AND DRYING FUELS, BUT LOW WINDS.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA, PLEASE USE CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR FLAMES AND THINGS
THAT SPARK (SUCH AS FIREWORKS) AS FIRES MAY BECOME QUICK TO GROW.
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT THEN DROP AGAIN THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 33 54 31 66 / 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 36 54 34 64 / 20 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 42 52 44 60 / 20 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ176-195>198-
210>212-214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ335.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-
375.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...FOWLER
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