354  
FXUS64 KHGX 012321  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
621 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025  
 
THE IMMEDIATE TERM REMAINS POISED TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ONE, WITH  
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE TX OVER THE  
NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS EVENING, WE'VE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO OUR W AND NW AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH IN THE MIDLEVELS PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS  
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING, IT'S POSSIBLE A FEW  
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY  
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE  
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. AFTER SUNSET, CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND AHEAD OF A RESURGENCE  
ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO  
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SEVERE STORMS INCREASING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY  
INTO THE REGION. A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, WITH ABUNDANT NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE, SB INSTABILITY IN  
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OVER 30 KNOTS. PVA  
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO  
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10  
CORRIDOR. SOME OF THESE CELLS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,  
AGAIN BRINGING THE THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS THE  
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AN ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
TO POSE THE RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE, WITH THE  
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO TRAVEL RELATIVELY SLOWLY, WE WILL NEED TO  
CLOSELY MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS, WHICH COULD  
PRODUCE AREAS OF STREET FLOODING. TOMORROW IS A DAY TO REMAIN  
WEATHER AWARE, HAVING MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND  
REMAINING VIGILANT OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS.  
 
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES AS MILD NORTHERLY WINDS  
BEHIND THE FRONT BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.  
 
CADY  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS  
SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING AND WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING  
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND.  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE  
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE WATERS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY,  
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST TX. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE IN  
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION AND  
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.  
 
ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW  
SHOWERS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND  
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.  
MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE  
RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN, HOWEVER, WE COULD  
SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RAMPS UP AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL  
WEAKNESSES PASS THROUGH.  
 
COTTO  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025  
 
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ON APPROACH TO CLL AND MAY  
BRING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL IF IT MANAGES TO HOLD  
TOGETHER. ALSO INCLUDING VCTS AROUND UTS AS WELL WITH SOME  
SPORADIC CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRFIELD OVER THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT  
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THESE TWO SITES, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILTER  
IN AT ALL SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXTENDING INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CEILINGS RETURN BY THE MID-MORNING ALONG WITH  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,  
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO  
DEVELOP AROUND 18-20Z MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-10. THESE STORMS  
WILL BE OCCURING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF AN APPROACHING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY  
EVENING/NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH  
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THIS CONVECTION  
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN ON FRIDAY  
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE  
BECOMING NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT THIS IS JUST  
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.  
 
BATISTE  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RELAX BY MID WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS AND/OR  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES. CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES MAY  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE AVOID GOING INTO THE WATERS  
IF RED FLAGS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE BEACHES.  
 
COTTO  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 85 63 78 / 20 80 70 20  
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 86 67 82 / 20 70 60 40  
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 82 71 81 / 20 40 60 50  
 
 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
TXZ436>439.  
 
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CADY  
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)  
AVIATION...BATISTE  
MARINE...COTTO (24)  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab TX Page
Main Text Page