761
FXUS64 KHGX 260602
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
- LOW SEA BREEZE STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR SE TX AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS THE STATE. WE REMAIN SITUATED ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, PUTTING US IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO BE A TRICKY SETUP FORECAST
WISE, AND MODELS HANDLE IT VERY POORLY MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. SO,
WHILE MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, I WOULD BE CAUTIOUS TO LEAN COMPLETELY ON THAT THEORY.
HERE'S WHY:
LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN PRIMARILY ONSHORE, AND WE SEE PWAT VALUES
BEGIN TO CREEP UP INTO THE 2" RANGE (90TH PERCENTILE) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A DISTURBANCE IN THE KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA, SLOWLY DRIFTING SE.
OUTFLOWS FROM THESE OVERNIGHT STORMS COULD INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE AND WEAK CAPPING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT
IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PINEY WOODS/BRAZOS VALLEY AREA
(SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE TOO HIGH OF RESOLUTION FOR MODELS TO HONE
IN ON). ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS, WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL IN THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AND AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PATTERNS OF NW FLOW ALOFT HAVE ALSO BEEN KNOWN TO HUMBLE
FORECASTERS BY HAVING STORMS MATERIALIZE WHEN NO STORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST AND VICE VERSA, SO I CANNOT SAY WITH COMPLETE CERTAINTY
THAT ANY STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HOWEVER,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STORMS IN THIS PATTERN BEFORE, SO I FEEL AS
THOUGH IT IS WORTH A MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN TOASTY AS HIGHS CREEP INTO
THE 100 DEGREE RANGE INLAND AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 107-109F
RANGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED "FRONT" WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING A COOLDOWN,
MERELY A WIND SHIFT. AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AND MOISTURE POOLS
OUT AHEAD, THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ON THURSDAY;
HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MAY
ALLOW US A BRIEF BREAK FROM THIS. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-108 DEGREE
RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A POTENTIAL DECREASE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE AREA REMAINS MOSTLY VFR WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS UP IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THESE HAVE NOT YET REPORTED RAIN, BUT WILL BE
MONITORED AS THEY MOVE S ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO SSW IN THE
MORNING. BRIEF INCREASED CLOUD DECK IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN 10-14Z, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT CIGS. IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT BACK TO SSE NEARING THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CMW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNINGS TODAY AND THURSDAY,
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
BAILEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 100 77 101 78 / 10 0 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 79 100 80 / 10 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 83 90 82 / 10 0 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...BAILEY
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