460
FXUS64 KHGX 101847
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
147 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING HEAT RISK WITH "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES AROUND
97-107 DEGREES (36-42 CELSIUS) THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
- RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS GULF-FACING BEACHES CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DAILY,
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE A FEW CLAPS
OF THUNDER IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST IS
CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, BUT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD, THE ROBUSTNESS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS LIMITED. WITH DEW POINTS RANGING IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S
RESULTING IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEARING OR EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES, HEAT IMPACTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AS WE ADVANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, AS
MODERATE HEATRISK WILL AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
AND/OR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION OPTIONS AVAILABLE
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
DAILY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAT INDICIES MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
REMAINS OVERHEAD. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HEAT INDICIES GOING INTO AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WARRANTS MONITORING AS THEY NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY TERRITORY.
OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PUSH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THE NHC HAS ONLY A 10%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FEATURE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS, AS ADVERTISED BY
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WOULD WEAKEN. UNDER THIS SCENARIO OF
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS, AND POSSIBLE
FRONTAL LIFT WOULD PROVIDE FOR AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A VERY WET
PERIOD THAT WOULD BE FAVORED BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO (AT LEAST) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
YOUNG
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT A FEW OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE
8-12 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE HAVE
BEEN COVERED WITH PROB30'S IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. RAIN ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AGAIN AT LEAST
FOR SOME OF THE HOUSTON METRO TERMINALS AND THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF PATCHY
FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET.
CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AS SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. CONTINUED
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS SEAS NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RISING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS GULF FACING BEACHES. THE MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
YOUNG/03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 91 78 92 / 0 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 88 82 88 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR GMZ330-335-350-355.
DISCUSSION...YOUNG
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...YOUNG/03
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