884  
FXUS64 KHGX 101153  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
653 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
- INCREASED RISK OF FIRES STARTING TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW  
HUMIDITIES IN PLACE.  
 
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS  
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS ANTICIPATED. WATER  
LEVELS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  
 
- NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
MID/UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS WILL  
HOLD TIGHT FOR THE NEXT WEEK - SO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES WON'T BE  
FOUND IN THE FORECAST UNFORTUNATELY. THE GOOD NEWS: A DRY AIRMASS  
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME PLEASANT EVENINGS,  
OVERNIGHT, AND MORNING TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE NOT SO GOOD  
NEWS: THESE LOW RH'S WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FAST FIRE STARTS IF  
INITIATED.  
 
ONCE SOUTHEAST WINDS RESUME IN THE LOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL  
SEE A SLOW UPWARD TICK IN DEWPOINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HEADING INTO  
NEXT WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, DAYTIME READINGS  
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. 47  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)  
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NE DURING THE DAY, BECOMING  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY  
SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, LOOK FOR A FAIRLY QUICK INCREASE IN  
ENE WIND SPEEDS THAT'LL FILL IN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE  
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE ADVISORIES AND/OR CAUTION FLAGS UP INTO THE  
9A-NOON TIMEFRAME, THEN WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TRENDING BACK DOWN.  
 
WATER LEVELS/TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO THE  
MOON PHASE AND EASTERLY FETCH. THEY SHOULD BE PEAKING IN THE 3.5-  
4.0FT MLLW RANGE AROUND THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THRU THE  
WEEKEND AT GULF FACING LOCATIONS. SINCE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED ALREADY  
TONIGHT, WE'LL BE CANCELING THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY  
EARLY. GIVEN THAT WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, SUSPECT THAT  
GOING FORWARD WE MIGHT JUST SEE LESS OF A BEACH VERSUS A MORE OF  
THE TRADITIONAL AND MORE IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOOD THREAT, BUT WILL  
LET THE DAY CREW MAKE A DECISION WHETHER A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY  
OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WOULD BE A BETTER FIT IN TERMS OF  
MESSAGING.  
 
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESUME SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO  
NEXT WEEK. LOOKING LIKE FAVORABLE MARINE WX CONDITIONS. 47  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
DAYTIME MINIMUM RH'S SHOULD BE AROUND 25% INLAND AND 30-40$ COAST  
TODAY. WINDS WILL BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THAT SAID, FUELS  
REMAIN DRY AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE STARTS SHOULD  
INITIATION OCCUR. THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE FIRE DANGER INDEX IS  
IN THE HIGH-EXTREME TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. RH'S  
SHOULD BE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL RELATIVELY LOW  
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN WORKING WITH  
OPEN FLAMES/EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS, ESPECIALLY IN DRY  
SPOTS. 47  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 60 91 60 / 0 0 0 0  
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0  
GALVESTON (GLS) 86 72 85 74 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING  
FOR GMZ330.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ335.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ350-  
355-370-375.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...47  
AVIATION...ADAMS  
MARINE...47  
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