810
FXUS64 KHGX 191809
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1209 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2021
AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILING OF AROUND 8000
TO 9000FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME CHANGES LATER
TODAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CLL AROUND 21Z, THEN
THROUGH UTS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING BRINGING WITH IT A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND CIGS AROUND 1500-2500FT. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND
06-09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES, SO ONLY CLL
AND UTS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF VCSH OR -SHRA THROUGH AROUND 3Z.
HOWEVER, THE LOWERING CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 400-700FT,
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BRINING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3-6 MILES.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MVFR CIGS MAY
RETURN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOWLER
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2021/
SHORT TERM...
AT 3 AM, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE STATE FROM ABOUT
TEXARKANA TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY GETS
SHUNTED NORTH AND WEST AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NUDGES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. IT'S A PRETTY WARM START TO THE DAY AS
CLOUDS AND A BIT OF MIXING FROM WINDS KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60
SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BOOST MAXT VALUES BACK INTO THE
70'S, AND POSSIBLY MID/UPPER 70'S DEPENDING ON WHETHER THERE ARE A
COUPLE BREAKS OF SUN.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SHOULD
REACH THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AROUND 00Z OR SO. THE FRONT WILL
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CWA BUT DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING REACHING HOUSTON AROUND 03Z AND THE COAST
AROUND 09Z. THE COOL AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS SHALLOW
WITH STRONG CAPPING IN THE 85-70 MB LAYER. MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE CAP WILL BRING A LOW OVERCAST AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE SINCE IT GENERALLY HANDLES THESE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES
BETTER THAN THE GFS AND THE BLENDS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MODEST ON
WEDS WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.20 AND 1.40 INCHES WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. JET DYNAMICS LOOK
MEAGER AND OTHER THAN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
THE DIFFUSE FRONT, NOT FINDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR
AT 850 MB AND STRONG CAPPING AT 700 MB. TEMPERATURES WON'T FALL
MUCH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP MINT VALUES ON THE WARM SIDE. FCST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW THE MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 06Z AND
TOWARD THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK A BIT HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES. COULD
START TO SEE SOME SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 60'S OVERRIDING COOLER WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50'S. 43
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
ON THURSDAY, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-10, AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY
INSTABILITY OR LIFT, THESE WILL MAINLY REMAIN SHOWERS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA INCREASING
PWS TO AROUND 1.80 INCHES, BUT THE MAJOR MOISTURE AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES, SEA FOG WELL BECOME AN ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY AND
CURRENT PROFILES SUGGEST TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
CONTINUES THE SAME TREND WITH THE BOUNDARY MIGRATING SOME IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT STILL KEEPING MOST RAIN CHANCES NORTH.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
AND ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS IN THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES WILL STILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA. TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LITE SIDE
WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH BEING GENEROUS AND TRACE AMOUNTS MORE
PROBABLE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST AND RIDGES INTO THE REGION. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SATURDAY SHOWING BRIEF A COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S
FRONT. LOWS WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT TUESDAY. 35
MARINE...
CURRENTLY, SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS
20-60NM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCEC CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WATERS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO 6FT SEAS UNTIL THOSE SUBSIDE AS
WELL. WITH WARM AIR MOVING OVER OUR COLD SHELF WATERS, SEA FOG IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEA FOG ARE WED-FRI DUE TO
FAVORABLE E-NE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HELP DISSIPATE THAT SEA
FOG. KBL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 48 60 54 70 61 / 60 20 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 54 66 59 73 64 / 10 10 10 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 65 60 68 62 / 10 10 10 20 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page