055
FXUS64 KHGX 080613
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1213 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
- A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE.
- POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND SEA FOG INCREASES TONIGHT, AND WILL BE
POSSIBLE NIGHTLY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW, SHOULD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. ADDITIONALLY, CALM WINDS, INCREASING MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK.
AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL PASS THROUGH TEXAS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA (NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
PWATS ON TUESDAY), THIS COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS OVER SE TX. THE FORECAST REMAINS A
BIT TRICKY AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCERNED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA; HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
AS SHORT-RANGE HI-RESOLUTION MODELS COME IN, SHOULD GET A BETTER
IDEA OF WHAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LOOK
LIKE.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REPLACE IT FROM
BEHIND. CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH
THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS DURING THIS
TIME MAY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST GOING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES
OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
PAIRED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
TO DEVELOP. LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATED
BY 15Z-16Z LEADING TO THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT, AND
REMAIN POSSIBLE NIGHTLY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE GREATEST IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE BAYS AS RADIATIONAL FOG SPILLS OVER INTO THE WATERS, BUT SEA
FOG BECOMES MORE LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS USHER IN MOISTURE. FOG COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING PERIODS, BUT CANNOT OUT
RULE SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 49 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 55 67 58 72 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...BAILEY
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