386
FXUS64 KHGX 122351
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
651 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- AUGUST HEAT WILL CONTINUE. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY FLIRT AROUND
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
A FEW ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO POP UP ON THE RADAR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL PROBABLY SEE A CELL OR TWO TRY TO GET
GOING FURTHER INLAND LATER TODAY, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW
AND THEY'LL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING. SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO ON THURSDAY TOO, BUT WITH
EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, POPS AREN'T REALLY WORTH
MENTIONING FOR MOST AREAS.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOME DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE SEEN ON SAT PIX NEAR THE YUCATAN (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL INVERTED TROF) SHOULD BRIEFLY TRACK INTO THE REGION AND
SLIGHTLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES (20-35%).
AS THIS TROF MAKES IT FURTHER WWD INTO MEXICO, WE'LL SEE
STRENGTHENING RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS, SUBSIDENCE, AND LOWER
PW'S...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AT A MINIMUM OR NIL.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, WE'RE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 96-100F
RANGE INLAND AND LOW 90S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 105-110 MOST DAYS (FLIRTING WITH THE 108F ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR SOME LOCATIONS AT TIMES). CURRENTLY, I'M NOT PLANNING
TO ISSUE ONE FOR THURSDAY CONSIDERING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PROVIDE SOMEWHAT OF A "RELIEF"...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE
TO RE-EVALUATE THINGS. REGARDLESS OF AN ADVSY OR NOT, THE USUAL
HEAT PRECAUTIONS/MESSAGING REMAINS THE SAME. 47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
A FAIRLY SIMILAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
AND THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5-8KT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND GUSTS OF
18-23KT WILL RETURN BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12-15KT THAT PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD,
BUT LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE RETURN OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CLL, UTS, AND CXO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING (10-14Z TIMEFRAME) WITH CIGS AROUND 2000FT. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT CXO, THAT COULD RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS TONIGHT COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF FOG OR CIGS COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT. ANY LOW CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT TONIGHT
AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE HOISTED IN THE
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST THIS WEEKEND, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 97 79 96 / 0 20 0 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 91 84 91 / 0 0 10 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...47
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