042
FXUS64 KHGX 130610
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1210 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WARM AND MORE HUMID TODAY.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- CONDITIONS WILL TURN DRIER AND WARM, WITH MORE COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM SUNDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
TONIGHT'S WEATHER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE ARE ONCE AGAIN
LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION DROPPING INTO THE 0 TO 2 DEGF RANGE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND FURTHER INLAND; FOG WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 8 - 10 AM.
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING AN UPTICK IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE,
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS TX ON SATURDAY. MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ALOFT WILL
BE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, LEADING TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IS A POSITIVE TILTED WAVE, SO IT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. WE CANNOT IGNORE THE
ENVIRONMENT "COOKING" AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. INCREASING
WAA ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, WILL BRING AN
UPTICK IN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LLJ.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEST OF OUR CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THAT HAPPENS, THERE
WILL BE DECENT DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH MODERATE 0-6KM SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY (THOUGH STILL
AT A LOW TO MODERATE LEVEL). THEREFORE, A PROGRESSIVE LINE OF
CONVECTION, LIKELY WITH SOME STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY FORM. THIS LINE
COULD BRING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AGREE
WITH SPC REGARDING THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY
2 OUTLOOK.
THE MAIN CAVEAT TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS WHETHER INSTABILITY
REMAINS LOW AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA, POTENTIALLY DUE TO
CLOUD COVERAGE FROM PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS CLOUD COVER
COULD PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN STABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE MAIN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. REGARDLESS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE LINE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY,
ENDING ANY RAIN.
DRIER AIR WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT THE SAME, THE AIR WILL FEEL A LOT LESS
HUMID AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
ANTICIPATE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITION NEAR THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS SEA FOG ROLLS IN, BRINGING IFR-VLIFR VISIBILITY & CIGS.
LOW CIGS/VIS SHOULD SLOWLY FILL INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
WITH IFR-LIFR FLS LIKELY AS FAR NORTH OF KCXO. LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT KCLL AND KUTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF FRIDAY, THOUGH IT MAY BE MUCH SHORTER LIVED WITH MVFR-IFR FLS
MORE PREVALENT IN THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE IMPROVE
LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SEA FOG MAY LOOM OFF THE COAST FROM GALVESTON
DURING THE DAYTIME. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILINGS AND FOG
FRIDAY NIGHT.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO AT
LEAST MID FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY FURTHER INLAND, SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULF WATERS AND THE
BAYS THROUGH 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 74 56 69 / 20 100 70 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 75 59 71 / 10 90 90 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 71 59 69 / 20 70 100 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ200-213-
214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
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