722
FXUS64 KHGX 042343
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
COAST.
- MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER NIGHTS MONDAY - WEDNESDAY.
- AFTER A BREAK IN THE RAIN/HUMIDITY, WE SHOULD SEE CHANCES RAMP
BACK UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THUR-SAT (ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
TODAY THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE DRIVEN BY TWO DIFFERENT FEATURES IN THE
COASTAL AND BRAZOS VALLEY REGIONS. FIRST, COASTAL TROUGHING AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAIN GLUED TO THE COAST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE FINALLY EXITING. THE PWAT'S REMAIN IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE, RESULTING IN CONTINUAL RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERIODICALLY MEANDER INLAND, WHILE THE MAJORITY REMAIN OFF
SHORE. SECOND, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM THE BRAZOS VALLEY INTO THE PINEY WOODS, ALSO PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TO BECOME CONVECTIVE, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE. WHILE BOTH FEATURES ARE OVER THE REGION,
MINIMUM INTERACTION IS ANTICIPATED AS MARGINALLY INCREASED SURFACED
BASED CAPE INTERACTS WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIATING
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
ALL ACROSS THE AREA THE ONE SIMILARITY IS A CONTINUAL NNE BREEZE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS THAT KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD.
MONDAY, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
PLAINS AND INITIATES A STRONGER GRADIENT WITH EXPANDED NE FLOW. THIS
INCREASES THE PROBABILITY OF BRINGING DECREASED DEWPOINTS AND
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES. 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID-UPPER 80'S, SO ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO BECOME MORE SEASONALLY NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF I-10 WILL LOWER INTO IN THE MID 60'S WHILE THE CITY AND
COASTLINE REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70'S.
IN THE LONGER FORECAST PERIOD THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STICKS
AROUND THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD. A TROUGH
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND HUGS THE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMPRESSES
THE GRADIENT AND BRINGS BACK SSE FLOW. THUS HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES ALL INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND.
WHITAKER/BAILEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WIDESPREAD CLOUD
DECK HANGS OVER ALL TAF SITES. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE NORTHERNMOST TAF SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR FIRST, BY ABOUT
05 TO 08Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL
LAST AT IAH, WITH SOME MODELS TAKING THESE CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE LATEST HREF/NBM GUIDANCE, WE DECIDED TO HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR BY 12Z AT IAH, BUT LEFT IN A SCT015 TO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THOSE MVFR CIGS STICKING AROUND. SINCE THEY ARE
CLOSEST TO THE COASTAL MOISTURE, THE SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING (19 TO 21Z). RAIN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT STORMS COULD POP
UP NEAR LBX AND GLS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE NNE/NE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH GUSTIER CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST.
JMG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF AND THE GRADUAL
BUILDING OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT AND ENHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY, AND LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, AND COULD BE EXTENDED
FURTHER. THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS IN
THE BAYS, PARTICULARLY LOWER BAYS. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 KNOTS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF AND NEAR/WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. WE
HAVEN'T ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ADVISORY BEING WARRANTED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY- WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 87 71 88 / 20 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 86 77 87 / 50 10 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...WHITAKER
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...CMW
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