115
FXUS64 KHGX 200442
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021
AVIATION [06Z TAF ISSUANCE]
TRENDS OF VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS CONTINUE TO HOLD AS
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS PROGRESS. WINDS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT GLS WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THE LOWER CEILINGS TO OUR WEST. AS A
RESULT, LEANED TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS AS THE LOWEST POSSIBILITY
FOR MOST SITES. THE NORTHERN THREE SITES (CLL, UTS, CXO) HAVE A
SLIM CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL INDICATE SPARSE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOONS MAINLY IN THE FAR EASTERN CWA, BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY AND COVERAGE FOR VCSH TO BE WARRANTED. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD TO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
BATISTE
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021/
SHORT TERM [THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]
EVEN WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SE TX TODAY, THE AIR
MASS APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TIME IN MOISTENING BACK UP. DEWPOINTS
HAVE STILL MIXED OUT DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO KEEP THE SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WELL EAST OF HERE (MORE TOWARD
LA/MS) TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS SUCH, THE HIGHEST POPS (AROUND 20%)
WILL LIKELY BE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS AND SE COASTAL COUNTIES (IE.
GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS) DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. LOWS FOR TO-
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO
THE SOUTH. TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S. SO, OVERALL
STILL PLEASANT FALL WEATHER BUT A LITTLE WARMER WITH SLOWLY INCREAS-
ING HUMIDITIES. 41
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AREA, WHICH IS WHERE IT WILL STAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SE TEXAS WILL BE IN THE CONTINUED MOIST, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PUMPING PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5" INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST, BUT LACKING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (ZONAL FLOW) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A
MINIMUM. HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE MOISTURE CONTENT A BIT MORE (PWATS UP
TO AROUND 1.6") LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE NEXT FRONT FOR OUR AREA NOT SEEN UNTIL BEYOND THE END OF
LONG TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE LOW 90S NEAR THE HOUSTON METRO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUES.
FOWLER
MARINE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE TO
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE WATERS OFF
OF GALVESTON BAY, WHICH IS BORDERLINE CAUTION CRITERIA. WILL NOT
ISSUE A SCEC AT THIS TIME, BUT MARINERS SHOULD CHECK BACK THIS
EVENING FOR ANY UPDATES. LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL THEN
START UP WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3FT WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 4FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FEET START ON
SUNDAY THANKS TO THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 84 65 86 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 85 68 87 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 82 74 82 74 / 10 20 20 10 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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