034
FXUS64 KHGX 102345
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS LIKELY. ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE.
- PATTERN EXPECTED TO TREND DRIER AND HOTTER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
BEYOND TUESDAY.
- SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THE DRIER PATTERN HOLDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO SE TEXAS TODAY.
THE PLUME CONTAINS 2.0-2.5 INCH PWATS. WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF
DEEP MOISTURE IS A WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE, HELPING TO ENHANCE
LIFT OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST. RADAR HAS SHOWN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND INTO SE TEXAS THIS MORNING, BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
STORMS HAVE THUS FAR MOVED FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD RISK.
BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SLOWER STORM AND/OR TRAINING OF STORMS
AT SOME POINT TODAY. SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE RADAR CLOSELY
FOR POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF PWAT AVAILABLE. WE ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
THAT BEING SAID, GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY UNDERESTIMATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND INLAND-MOST
ZONES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. SO A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN PINEY WOODS AND BRAZOS VALLEY ARE ON THE TABLE.
BEYOND TODAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES DRIER AND HOTTER AS RIDGING
TAKES HOLD. I DOUBT WE CAN SUPPRESS THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ON
TUESDAY, THUS THE LOW POPS SOME OF YOU SEE IN YOUR LOCATION
SPECIFIC FORECAST TOMORROW. BUT THE DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID
FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ONE
CAVEAT MAY BE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WHICH
EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN VERY DEEP ONSHORE FLOW THAT EXTENDS WELL
INTO THE MID LEVELS (UP TO 500 MB). THIS SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MOISTURE RICH AS WE APPROACH THE END OF
THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A ML DISTURBANCE
THAT PUSHES INTO NE MEXICO / S TX TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD NUDGE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY COUPLED WITH THE
INCREASING DEEP LL/ML FLOW FROM THE GULF COULD EASILY CHANGE A
DRY FORECAST INTO A WETTER ONE. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
FOR THE 11/00Z TAF UPDATE, RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AIRSPACE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WANING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, THE LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
-SHRA/-TSRA REMAINS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF KIAH BY 11/18Z-23Z.
THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY FG, MEANS
WINDOWS FOR MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS AT 11/12Z-15Z AND 11/18Z-23Z,
RESPECTIVELY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KTS.
RANGE, MAXIMIZING IN SPEEDS NEAR 10 KTS. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
CASSEL
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY. ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 30-35 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF AND
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN DRIER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST W/ 1-3 FT SEAS. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR EAST. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD APPROACH 20 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS. SEAS WELL OFFSHORE COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 96 76 98 / 10 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 96 79 97 / 10 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 90 83 90 / 20 20 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...CASSEL
MARINE...SELF
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