416
FXUS64 KHGX 211000
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK, WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER, WE HAVE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. A PLUME OF ELEVATED PWATS (BETWEEN ~1-1.8")
CREEPS UP TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT AND PUSHES TO OUR WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE ELEVATED PWATS PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER
AND HUMIDITY THAN ANY RAIN CHANCES, AND WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION (MID
80S). OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER THE DRYING TREND AND THUS
WON'T SEE AS WARM A DAY AS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL (LOW 80S).
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THAT DRY NORTHERN AIR WILL MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH, DECREASING SURFACE PWATS TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL LOWER
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT RANGE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
DAYTIME HEATING STEADILY RISING INTO THE MID 80S WITH A FEW PLACES
(MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-10) TRYING FOR THE UPPER 80S BEFORE NEXT WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY CHILLY, GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COULD BE NEXT TUESDAY, WHEN GFS
HAS A STARK THETA-E GRADIENT PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. WE'RE STILL
FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE, BUT LONG-RANGE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN HINTING AT A WEATHER-SHIFT TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS MONTH AND INTO NOVEMBER. UNTIL THEN, WE EMBRACE A
WARMING TREND THAT IS AT LEAST NOT SO HUMID.
BSM/COTTO
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
BKN TO OVC CLOUDS AROUND 3500-6000 FT ARE CURRENTLY ENVELOPING
AREAS INCLUDING AND SOUTH OF CXO EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT
SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND EVENTUALLY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES
BY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY AROUND MATAGORDA
BAY EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF ALL
AREA TERMINALS. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FALLING OFF AT 1 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
AFTERWARDS, STILL IN OUR LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS ~15 KTS,
CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RAIN OFFSHORE DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY AND POPS ARE
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BSM/COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 55 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 64 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...BSM
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