988
FXUS64 KHGX 171136
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2019
AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]
LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AGAIN A BAND OF LOW STRATUS
OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT MORE THICK TOWARDS KCLL WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS. FARTHER SOUTH CLOUDS ARE MORE THIN AND MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING 17-20Z IN THE HOUSTON AREA. TAFS DO NOT HAVE
MENTION OF TSRA AS CONFIENCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AT MOST. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DECREASE AGAIN TONIGHT. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS AND MVFR CEILNGS DEVELOPING FOR
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO.
OVERPECK
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 341 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2019/
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]
HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDING OVER TEXAS WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 594DM. DEEP
MOISTURE OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE
TODAY SO WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE IF ANY AT ALL DUE TO THE RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODELS ONCE
AGAIN SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE I-45 CORRIDOR. FORECAST
WILL GO WITH SOME 20 POPS FOR TODAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY BUT
BASED ON THE RIDGING, IT WILL BE HARD FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE SEA BREEZE.
LIKE YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AGAIN
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 103F TO 108F RANGE. QUITE POSSIBLE FOR
A FEW SPOTS TO GO ABOVE 108F IF MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH,
BUT WE THINK THESE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE FOR ISOLATED
AREAS AND BRIEF. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT THERE
COULD BE A CHANCE FOR ONE BEING ISSUED LATER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LESS.
OVERPECK
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND TX THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT HOT WEATHER AND ONSHORE FLOW. A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT SHOULD
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISE AND BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OVERALL COVERAGE ON THE
RISE SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWEST SATURDAY, AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHWARD
PARALLEL TO THE TX COAST SUNDAY, BRINGING WITH IT BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT, HELPING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND SUNNIER SKIES RETURNING BY MID WEEK.
HATHAWAY
MARINE
OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 13-17 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES AND RIP CURRENTS. TIDES SHOULD BE ABOUT A HALF
FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS.
OVERPECK
CLIMATE
A COUPLE OF RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE SET YESTERDAY,
JULY 16TH, ACROSS SE TX. FOR THE CITY OF GALVESTON, A RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET, BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 84 DEGREES SET IN 1994. THIS ALSO ONCE AGAIN TIES THE
WARMEST HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED FOR THE CITY OF
GALVESTON. ADDITIONALLY, HOUSTON HOBBY RECORDED A HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 79 DEGREES
SET IN 2010. FINALLY, THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE CITY OF
COLLEGE STATION YESTERDAY WAS 79 DEGREES, WHICH TIES THE RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 79 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2009.
HATHAWAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 95 76 95 / 0 0 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 79 93 78 93 / 20 0 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 89 84 90 / 10 0 10 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION...OVERPECK
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