930
FXUS64 KHGX 282322
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
522 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE WIND PATTERN TODAY
THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN SETX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
WEDNESDAY, CHARACTERIZED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES ASHORE, WITH ROBUST ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTING TO A STEADY INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
THAT WILL RESULT FROM THIS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED WAA, HAVE DECIDED
TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH SSTS IN GALVESTON BAY AT AROUND 61F AND DEW
POINT VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING, A PERIOD OF MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THIS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO TUESDAY
IN/NEAR THE BAYS AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
ON TUESDAY, WE REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEESIDE LOW, PRODUCING A FAIRLY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
PARAMETER SPACE REMAINS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOCATIONS TO OUR
EAST/NORTHEAST, LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ROBUST CAPE
(2000-2500 J/KG), BULK SHEAR (40+ KT), AND LOW-LEVEL HELICITY
(~150 M^2/S^2) AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA.
AS THE FRONT REACHES SETX LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY STILL
POSSIBLE AS IT REACHES THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEGINNINGS OF AN INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
CADY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF WITH SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FROPA, BRINGING MODERATE CAA AND BREEZY TO
WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE AT TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS COULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES/BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL LIKELY NEED
WIND HEADLINES ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AS TIME APPROACHES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY, DRY AND CONTINUED
WEAK CAA WILL PREVAIL WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 60S, AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SOME
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH TX BY FRIDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE MATAGORDA REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES ALONG ITS
PASSAGE. SUNDAY AND BEYOND, CONTINUED EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR EAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF NAEFS AND GEFS-M CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DECREASING CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE DECREASE IN BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY TO LIFR OVERNIGHT. IFR
CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AND COULD EVEN LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THAT BEING SAID, VISIBILITY
AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY VCSH TOMORROW MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COULD NOT RULE OUT TS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTORMS APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING VCTS IN LATER UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
DIFFERENT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND BAYS. FIRST, THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SEA FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE
WATERS. WITH DEWPOINT VALUES REACHING OR EXCEEDING WATER
TEMPERATURES, PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY; THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR ALL GULF WATERS. THE NEXT
MARINE CONCERN ARRIVES AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS, ELEVATED SEAS AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE WILL BE POSSIBLE;
THEREFORE,A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (HIGH-END WIND CRITERIA) AND/OR
GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT SOME POINT. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AND TRANSITION TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL PATCHY SEA FOG.
05
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 59 78 45 58 / 30 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 61 80 54 63 / 30 40 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 74 61 67 / 30 60 30 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ330.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...87
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