556
FXUS64 KHGX 240548
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK
AS THE HEAT EASES SOMEWHAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED DUE TO THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT SHOULD REIGN SUPREME ACROSS INLAND REGIONS, WHILE HIGHS AT
THE BEACHES AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 90S. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN WITH THIS
MIXING, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY, WHICH COULD
HELP KEEP US A TAD LESS HOT AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
REGARDLESS, HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MONDAY-TUESDAY POPS ARE
~10%.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
BREAKDOWN MAY BE MODEST, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS ONLY
DROPPING FROM 595 DAM TO 592 DAM. BUT THE BREAKDOWN COUPLED WITH
INCREASING DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARE LEADING TO AN UPWARD TREND IN
POPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY).
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS COMES LESS HOT TEMPERATURES. MOST
OF THE CWA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE SEASONABLY MISERABLE MID 90S
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RECENT HOT AND DRY SPELL HAS PLACED
THE AREA ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS DROUGHT. SO HOPEFULLY THE
INCREASINGLY WET SIGNAL LATE WEEK IS A TREND THAT CONTINUES IN
FUTURE UPDATES.
SELF
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
WSW/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE SSE AND INCREASE TO THE 7-12 KT
RANGE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND
SUNRISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIG/VIS IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-10. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED. VIS
IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 6-9 SM, WITH LOCALIZED LOWER SPOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN BY ABOUT 15Z TOMORROW AT ALL TAF SITES.
MLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY,
POTENTIALLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS.
THEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEANWHILE, OFFSHORE GULF WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT NIGHT (10-15
KNOTS GUSTING 20 KNOTS) AND LOWER DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 104 78 103 77 / 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 102 80 101 79 / 20 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 83 93 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...SELF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page