360  
FXUS64 KHGX 112117  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH THIS EVENING]
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT FOR THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.  
 
DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S) HAS ADDED TO  
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN  
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A CONFIRMED TORNADO IN  
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERACTION WITH  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR MADISON/HOUSTON COUNTY LED TO THE ROTATION  
IN THIS THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT EHI IN THIS REGION  
IS 2-3. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD SOUTH  
OF THE FRONT ADDED TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AND  
WESTERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND  
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND  
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, THESE SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY  
ISOLATED CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
BATISTE  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON]
 
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY GOING INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE  
INDICATES CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER A  
LINE FROM BURLESON COUNTY TO HOUSTON COUNTY AND MOVING SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE RAINFALL THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED  
YESTERDAY AND TODAY, WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH  
OUT TO BRAZOS COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTGOMERY COUNTY.  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, A FEW HI-RES MODELS  
INDICATE AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT  
APPROACHES THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME  
SEMBLANCE OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON TWO MAIN LINES OF HIGHER  
QPF TOTALS WITH 2-4" IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND 2-4" ALONG THE  
COAST. CURRENTLY LEANING AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL  
AREAS FOR NOW SINCE THIS AREA HASN'T RECEIVED MUCH RAINFALL LATELY.  
MODELS ARE NOT COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING FOR THE FRONT  
MOVING OFF OF THE COAST. THE NAM IS FURTHEST BEHIND WITH FRONT  
PUSHING OFF THE COAST MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OTHER MODELS  
PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LINGERING  
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS CAN LEAD  
TO POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE  
GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH  
COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS NORTH OF I-10  
IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-10.  
 
BATISTE  
 

   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING  
OFF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE  
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE  
AREA 2 GOOD DAYS WITH DRIER AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER  
NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS. SATURDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND STRONG  
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY AND HAVE NUDGED UP THE RAIN  
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST HIGHER TO NORTHEAST LOWER CHANCES. SOME OF  
THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A VERY WET SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY IS LOW WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM PERSISTENT MCSS  
TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT WILL STRONGLY LEAN ON  
THE NBM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE GULF BUT LOCALLY ON GALVESTON BAY  
STRONGER WITH THE IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW TO THE STORMS OVER SETX.  
COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT/EARLY  
WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH A  
WIND THREAT. POST FRONTAL SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING AND  
COULD FLIRT WITH SCA. MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP THIS  
WEEKEND AND EXPECT A LONG STRETCH OF SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS  
OF 4-6 FEET AND 15-25 KNOT WINDS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.  
45  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 70 59 75 57 / 70 50 10 10 0  
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 76 61 79 60 / 60 50 20 10 0  
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 79 66 78 70 / 60 60 30 10 0  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES:  
BRAZOS...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN  
JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER.  
 
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...24  
LONG TERM...45  
DSS...41/33  
 
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