458
FXUS64 KHGX 301708
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1208 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- HOT AND DRY FOR MOST TODAY. BUT WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EAST THAT COULD IMPACT OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TODAY /
EVENING
- HIGHER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LESS HOT TEMPERATURES
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN (THREAT LEVEL 1 OF 4) BOTH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
- OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK FEATURES SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
AND A DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
TODAY'S WEATHER HAS FEATURED ONE SURPRISE. IN FACT, THERE'S A
CHANCE YOU HAVE ALREADY NOTICED THIS SURPRISE. DEW POINTS WERE
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. BUT A LOT
MORE DRY AIR HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE TODAY THAN EXPECTED,
ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. A FEW SPOTS IN THE
BRAZOS VALLEY ARE REPORTING DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE 40S!
MEANWHILE, DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE 50S ARE BEING REPORTED AS FAR
SOUTH AND EAST AS BUSH AIRPORT. FEELING MORE LIKE EL PASO THAN
HOUSTON TODAY! WHILE THE LOWER HUMIDITY IS GREAT, THE DRIER AIR
MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS. AS LONG
AS THE APPROACHING HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE EAST DO NOT DAMPEN
WARMING TOO MUCH, I SUSPECT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE UP
AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER
CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
LOUISIANA AND THE GULF. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS THAT SOME OF
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WE'LL BE WATCHING IT CLOSELY.
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SE CONUS WILL BRING INCREASING LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS HOT
WHILE HUMIDITY RISES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM EVERY DAY. BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD
EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR WEST WHILE A MID/UPPER TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE MIDWEST. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND
COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO OUR REGION TO KEEP A DAILY RISK OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. BUT A
SUBTLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WOULD BRING DRIER
AND HOTTER CONDITIONS. A SHIFT TO THE WEST COULD SIGNAL A WETTER
PATTERN. FOR NOW, THE MONDAY-TUESDAY FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AND SEASONABLE HOT HUMID CONDITIONS.
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH FEW TO SCT MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SWITCHING TO
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON, THEN RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. CAN'T OUT RULE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT
SGR, LBX, OR CXO.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
LOW SEAS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DAILY RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF TODAY. THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW, LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. IN SOME
CASES, GUSTY WINDS CAN EXTEND FAR FROM THEIR ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM. THE HIGHEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 100 77 99 / 0 10 0 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 97 80 98 / 10 30 0 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 93 83 91 / 10 30 10 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...SELF
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