526
FXUS64 KHGX 231130
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]
LIFR TO VFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE
METRO AND NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF LBX THIS MORNING, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANTICIPATING NEARLY ALL TERMINALS TO
SEE SOME CONVECTION BESIDES POTENTIALLY CLL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, STUCK WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, WITH
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND STRONGER STORMS.
HATHAWAY
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019/
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]
3 AM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF SE TX THIS
MORNING BESIDES ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
LOW 80S. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM JACKSON TO FORT BEND TO LIBERTY COUNTY. RADAR IMAGERY IS
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME STREAMER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW, TT WRF, AND
HRRR HAVE ALSO SHOWED STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AROUND
GALVESTON BAY BY MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE GOES-16 TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
FIELD SHOWS UP TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG
THIS AXIS THAT STRETCHES INTO PORTIONS OF BRAZORIA, GALVESTON, AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL, ANTICIPATE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
WASHINGTON TO MONTGOMERY TO POLK COUNTY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARRIS,
LIBERTY, AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES, SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DELAY ANY IMPROVEMENTS TO FLOOD
CONDITIONS. WITH THE HELP OF CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY. TONIGHT, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO LOWER INTO THE LOW 70S TO 80S.
HATHAWAY
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING]
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BROADLY SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
BE THE MAIN FORCE DRIVING A DRY START TO THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
VALUES WILL PERSIST ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND THE GREATER HOUSTON
METRO AREA TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING DOWN THE CHANCES OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MID-WEEK. DESPITE THIS, THE TYPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IN THE MORNING HOURS WHICH PUSH FURTHER INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
EVENTUALLY LENDING WAY TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GULF COAST BY THURSDAY. AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS WITHIN THIS FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY EVENING, AND A RETURN TO ELEVATED PWS AND MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION SOON FOLLOWS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A WET ONE, AS ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROVE TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
CADY
MARINE
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK, WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT NIGHT. SCEC CRITERIA
MAY BE REACHED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WIND SPEEDS DO
NOT REALLY INCREASE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS BETTER
MOISTURE RETURNS OVER THE UPPER TX COAST.
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. AT GALVESTON
BAY ENTRANCE, TIDE LEVELS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 3.4 FEET ABOVE MLLW
THIS MORNING DURING HIGH TIDE. NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT TIDE LEVELS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO NEAR 3.0 FEET
BRIEFLY BEFORE LOWERING. THEREFORE, HAVE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT PAST 00Z TUESDAY FOR NOW.
HATHAWAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 73 92 71 93 / 20 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 74 90 72 89 / 50 10 0 0 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 87 80 88 / 40 0 0 10 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page