360
FXUS64 KHGX 112117
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021
NEAR TERM [THROUGH THIS EVENING]
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.
DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S) HAS ADDED TO
ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A CONFIRMED TORNADO IN
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. INTERACTION WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR MADISON/HOUSTON COUNTY LED TO THE ROTATION
IN THIS THUNDERSTORM. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT EHI IN THIS REGION
IS 2-3. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ADDED TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. SPC HAS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, THESE SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
ISOLATED CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
BATISTE
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON]
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER A
LINE FROM BURLESON COUNTY TO HOUSTON COUNTY AND MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE RAINFALL THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED
YESTERDAY AND TODAY, WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OUT TO BRAZOS COUNTY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS MONTGOMERY COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, A FEW HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SEMBLANCE OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON TWO MAIN LINES OF HIGHER
QPF TOTALS WITH 2-4" IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND 2-4" ALONG THE
COAST. CURRENTLY LEANING AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL
AREAS FOR NOW SINCE THIS AREA HASN'T RECEIVED MUCH RAINFALL LATELY.
MODELS ARE NOT COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING FOR THE FRONT
MOVING OFF OF THE COAST. THE NAM IS FURTHEST BEHIND WITH FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE COAST MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OTHER MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS CAN LEAD
TO POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH
COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS NORTH OF I-10
IN THE UPPER 60S/MID 70S AND UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-10.
BATISTE
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE THE
AREA 2 GOOD DAYS WITH DRIER AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER
NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS. SATURDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY AND HAVE NUDGED UP THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST HIGHER TO NORTHEAST LOWER CHANCES. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A VERY WET SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY IS LOW WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM PERSISTENT MCSS
TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT WILL STRONGLY LEAN ON
THE NBM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE GULF BUT LOCALLY ON GALVESTON BAY
STRONGER WITH THE IMPRESSIVE MOIST INFLOW TO THE STORMS OVER SETX.
COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH A
WIND THREAT. POST FRONTAL SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
COULD FLIRT WITH SCA. MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP THIS
WEEKEND AND EXPECT A LONG STRETCH OF SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS
OF 4-6 FEET AND 15-25 KNOT WINDS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.
45
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 70 59 75 57 / 70 50 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 76 61 79 60 / 60 50 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 79 66 78 70 / 60 60 30 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
BRAZOS...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...45
DSS...41/33
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