882
FXUS64 KHGX 111914
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
214 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING HEAT RISK WITH "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES AROUND
97-107 DEGREES (36-42 CELSIUS) THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
- RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DAILY,
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THUS FAR TODAY, AS THE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY HASN'T REALLY GOTTEN STARTED YET AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOT AND HUMID TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S PROVIDING A LOW TO MODERATE LEVEL OF OVERNIGHT RELIEF. THUS,
THOSE WITH LIMITED OR NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND/OR ARE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. THUS, A MOSTLY PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE LOOKS LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST TX AREA BY SUNDAY AS
PWAT'S RISE INTO THE 2.00-2.25" (150% OF NORMAL) RANGE. THUS, A
RELATIVELY QUICK RETURN TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY SHOULD THIS SCENARIO COME TO FRUITION. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WHERE
MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 97-107F (36-42C)
DEGREE RANGE. THUS, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE TAKING THE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESS, SUCH AS DRINKING
ADEQUATE AMOUNTS OF WATER AND TAKING BREAKING FROM DIRECT SUN
AND/OR HEAT DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
MAIN CIRCULATION OVER THE ONTARIO AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING SATURDAY, WITH A MUCH
MORE POTENT REINFORCING TROUGH THAT'LL WEAKEN THE RIDGING ALOFT
AND MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SHOW PRETTY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON TIMING AND RESULTANT
AMOUNTS, SO HOW THINGS ALIGN WILL BE WORTH MONITORING. AT THE VERY
LEAST, THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL LIFT WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHEREVER THESE
CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER. EARLY RAINFALL PROJECTIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY AM-TUESDAY AM TIMEFRAME ARE AROUND 1-2" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (75TH PERCENTILE) AROUND 3-4". WPC HAS
BEGUN TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTHEAST TX WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK STARTING SUNDAY AND INCREASING TO A SLIGHT RISK ON
MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY, FAVORING THE COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD BACK TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST, MOSTLY FOR
CEILINGS. IT'LL BOUNCE BETWEEN THE TWO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BUT OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF BECAUSE THE
OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW (<15%).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE WARRANTED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND AS SEAS NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RISING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS ANTICIPATED ALMOST DAILY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 92 76 93 / 10 20 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 92 77 92 / 10 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 88 82 88 / 10 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...YOUNG
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...YOUNG/03
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