373
FXUS64 KHGX 021734
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LEADS TO A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT IT'S A DRY HEAT!
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
WAKE ME UP WHEN SEPTEMBER ENDS...OR WHENEVER WE GET OUR FIRST TRUE
COLD FRONT...WHICHEVER COMES FIRST. WHILE WE DIDN'T QUITE HAVE A
TRUE FROPA, WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OFF OF THE COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. THAT
DOESN'T MEAN THAT THE RAIN CHANCES ARE GONE AS SOME ALONG THE COAST
ARE CURRENTLY DEALING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND 1.6-2.0" ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10. IF YOU
TAKE A GANDER AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, YOU'LL SEE THAT THE
DRIER AIR IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY IN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BE THE MOST PLEASANT DAYS WITH DEW POINTS MANAGING TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. THOSE LOWER DEW POINTS DO TRANSLATE TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WE DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...TONIGHT WE'LL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THERE IS A CAVEAT THOUGH...DRIER AIR DOES COOL DOWN MORE
EFFICIENTLY, BUT IT ALSO HEATS UP MORE EFFICIENTLY AS WELL!
THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT LEADS TO
850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. IT'LL BE A DRY HEAT
THOUGH AS DEW POINTS WILL STILL MANAGE TO MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S IN THE DAYTIME...SO THERE ARE NO HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THINGS GET A BIT MESSY. I KNOW THAT'S NOT WHAT
ANYONE WANTS TO HEAR AFTER THIS PAST WEEKEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE RISE. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN JUST AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT ITSELF
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT IT'S WAY TOO
EARLY TO LOCK ANYTHING IN AT THIS POINT...AND EITHER WAY IT'S
EXPECTED TO LINGER. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH WHERE
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE GOES WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WHAT HAPPENS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THE BULK OF THAT
MOISTURE MANAGES TO FIND ITS WAY INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST,
THEN WE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS THINGS
BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NNE TO E, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS; HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE LOWER END AND
DID NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
OUTSIDE OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LOW
SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATER
TODAY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS, BUT EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 93 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 93 73 95 / 0 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 91 80 91 / 10 10 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...BATISTE
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