035
FXUS64 KHGX 042335
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
- HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL,
CHANCES SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING... JUST
IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS. BUT COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED LINGERING
LATE EVENINGS SHOWERS.
- A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY IS A ROBUST, SLOW-MOVING, MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAS BROUGHT HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION TODAY. OUR
REGION SO FAR HAS MANAGED TO GET AWAY WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO TWO LIFTING MECHANISMS. THE
FIRST MECHANISM BEING THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. NEARLY ALL
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME OF THE SYSTEM'S
VORTICITY BEING THROWN OUR WAY, INDUCING LIFT OVER OUR MOISTURE
RICH SE TEXAS ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION, SURFACE OBS SUGGEST SOME
SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER OUR REGION. AS WE CONTINUE TO ADD DAY
TIME HEATING TO THE MIX, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR POINTS NORTH.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM OUR REGION TOMORROW. POPS ARE GENERALLY LOWER AS A RESULT.
BUT THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE LIFT,
PARTICULARLY OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW, WE HAVE 20-30
POPS, MOSTLY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10. WE'RE EXPECTING LESS
SYSTEM DRIVEN LIFT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING AND
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES (SEA BREEZE, BAY BREEZE BOUNDARY AND WHATNOT)
MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD, EFFECTING OUR
ATMOSPHERE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ADDED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE DIURNAL AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY RELATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE WISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. FOR
SATURDAY-TUESDAY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.
BEYOND TUESDAY, THE PATTERN APPEARS MORE "RIDGY" WITH HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER (THOUGH NOT ZERO) POPS. IN FACT, OUR
CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE SHOWING MANY AREAS IN THE UPPER 90S
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ONCE
THOUGHT THAT WE WOULD BE UNDER ROBUST RIDGING WITH LOW POPS AND
UPPER 90S TEMPS BY TODAY. OBVIOUSLY, THAT'S NOT HOW THINGS TURNED
OUT. SO KEEP THAT IN MIND WHEN LOOKING AT THE HOTTER AND DRIER
FORECAST FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY REASON WHY I WENT ALONG
WITH THE HOTTER/DRIER GUIDANCE IS DUE TO THE PROSPECTIVE PATTERN'S
CONSISTENCY WITH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY. WE OFTEN FIND OURSELVES IN
THE HOT DOLDRUMS OF STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF JULY. SO WHEN IN DOUBT, GO WITH CLIMO!
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
LIGHT SHRA CONTINUING THIS EVENING, AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTIONING IN THE TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
A CONTINUED TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK, FEATURE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, GENERALLY LOW
SEAS, AND A DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THANKS TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 90 72 92 / 20 20 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 93 75 94 / 20 20 0 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 90 81 90 / 10 20 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...SELF
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