654
FXUS64 KHGX 300555
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND PERSIST EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-107F (39-42C).
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110F
(40-43C).
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA BEACHES UNTIL THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA. NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF HAZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 8 MILES
HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE OBSERVATION SITES IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
SAL MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, BUT OVERALL, CONCENTRATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
WHAT HAD BEEN SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW WEAK IMPULSED TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO
OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE PLUME
OF HIGHER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING PWATS SURPASSING 2.00 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW, SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVES INTO OUR REGION ON
THURSDAY SHOWER COVERAGE LOOKS TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED (25-40%)
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS
RICHER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST, RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
HEAT RISK LOOKS TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BETWEEN
102-107 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONCERNS FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK
INCREASE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO
RANGE BETWEEN 105-110, WHICH WOULD NEAR OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE HOUSTON AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS
HEAT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH IT BEING THE FOURTH OF JULY
ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING
AS VERY PATCHY LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSHES ONSHORE. COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE SOME JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT HIGHEST CHANCES OF BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST
TERMINALS. AS THE INVERSION SHARPENS OVERNIGHT, THE LINGERING SAL
MAY ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME AND INTO THE EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE TRIES TO GET
GOING. LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME AS PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY
TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW
15 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS REMAINS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE FALLING TO LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW RAIN
CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEK, PEAKING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 95 78 93 / 0 0 0 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 89 82 89 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...MEJIA
MARINE...WILLIAMS
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