989
FXUS64 KHGX 171939
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
239 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN, LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
- SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS: MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO
GALE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS
ALONG ALL GULF- FACING BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CURRENTLY OBSERVING A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS SE TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON VIA GOES-19. MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POP UP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND; HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS AND
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW A PRETTY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT, SO NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS BECOMES
POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE
REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S ACROSS THE HOUSTON METRO, COASTAL PLAINS, AND UPPER TEXAS
COAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH SE TEXAS DURING
THE DAY, ENTERING THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS AROUND LATE
MORNING, THE HOUSTON METRO AROUND MID-AFTERNOON, AND OFF THE COAST
AROUND EARLY EVENING. AS MOISTURE POOLS WITH POCKETS OF
CONVERGENCE, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
AROUND THAT TIME, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE NW BORDER OF THE
CWA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHES THE HOUSTON METRO. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS INCREASE, WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALSO INCREASING. PWAT VALUES AROUND THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RESULT IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF URBAN AND STREET FLOODING, OR FLOODING IN AREAS WITH
POOR DRAINAGE. WPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SPEAKING A LITTLE MORE ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, OVERALL
EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, HOWEVER,
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS HIGHLIGHTED POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY,
STRONGER SHEAR, AND LOW CIN (PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO
AND EAST OF I-45). IN ADDITION TO THIS, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE BRAZOS VALLEY
AND PINEY WOODS. CURRENTLY SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK AREA JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SUB- SEVERE, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS(DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARD). LOOKING LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
(MID-AFTERNOON TO BEFORE SUNSET).
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO AN 850MB FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE STILL
AVAILABLE. ACTIVITY WILL END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY AND BREEZY. FOR
INLAND AREAS WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 MPH. CLOSER TO THE COAST
EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO A
GRADUAL UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
INTO THE MID-80S AROUND LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GULF COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10
FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE MAJORITY OF THIS AREA OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES EXCEPT IAH AND HOU THIS MORNING,
THOUGH SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTY SSE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT. FOR IAH, SHRA
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT ANY TS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.
YOUNG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (15-20KT) AND 3-5FT SEAS PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION MAY
LEAD TO GUSTS TO 25KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND IF THESE GUSTS
ARE FREQUENT ENOUGH THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.
A DECREASE IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT'S
PASSAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT USHERING IN STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-30KT ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS OF 7-10FT SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT GALE
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS GRADUALLY LOWER AND VEER
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WAVE RUN-UP
AND ELEVATED TIDES THROUGH SATURDAY (HIGH TIDES RUNNING AROUND
3-3.3FT ABOVE MLLW). THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES.
BAILEY/FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 75 51 74 / 0 50 70 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 82 56 74 / 0 60 80 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 78 62 74 / 0 30 80 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...BAILEY
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