804
FXUS64 KHGX 070550
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING.
- SEA FOG WILL REMAIN AN INTERMITTENT ISSUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
GALVESTON BAY AREA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET (TIED AT HOUSTON/BUSH
AIRPORT, PALACIOS, AND GALVESTON) ON FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE IN THIS
STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BE SET AS WELL AS LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, WHICH IS ACTUALLY WHAT OUR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ONE DIFFERENCE
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS IS THAT SEA FOG HASN'T BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE SO FAR (KNOCK ON WOOD) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS,
VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF GALVESTON BAY
THOUGH. SEA FOG WILL BE AN INTERMITTENT ISSUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS AND WARMING WATER TEMPERATURES
COULD PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING ITS EXTENT.
YESTERDAY'S CAMS PANNED OUT FAIRLY WELL WITH FRIDAY'S ACTIVITY BEING
LIMITED TO SCATTERED NONSENSE (SHOWERS), BUT THERE ARE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN TONIGHT'S CAMS IN DEPICTING HOW SATURDAY WILL UNFOLD.
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS THE SAME WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVERTAKING A DRY LINE OUT IN WEST TX AS IT PUSHES ITS WAY EASTWARD.
THIS PUSH IS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SPLIT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE NORTHERN HALF CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A CUTOFF LOW MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA WHERE IT'LL REMAIN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK (STICK A PIN IN THIS FOR LATER). THE FRONT BEGINS PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST TX ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DOESN'T HAVE THE FORCING TO
PUSH IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL...AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS STILL HAS THIS OCCURING ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE AS WHEREVER THIS FRONT
STALLS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
PW VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 1.4-1.6" RANGE (90TH PERCENTILE:
~1.39"), AND THESE VALUES WILL FURTHER SURGE GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE STORM MODE BEING
INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS BEFORE THINGS CONGEAL INTO BECOMING MORE
LINEAR GOING INTO THE EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX REMAINS OUTLINED IN A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU THE NIGHT AS
A RESULT. WITH PW VALUES BEING WELL ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN,
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ANOTHER HAZARD (SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON HIGH RAINFALL RATES COMBINING WITH
DRIED SOILS FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT).
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS. THE LATEST HRRR AND REFS
PMM DEPICT WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.5" TOTALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN 4". BOTH OF THESE DEPICT THIS
OCCURING CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS THE
FRONT STALLING OUT AT. THE GENERAL SETUP IS DISCRETE SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STORMS BECOME LINEAR IN THE
EVENING AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR, THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS (STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA
REPEATEDLY) COMES SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" PER HOUR
ARE POSSIBLE, SO EXTENDED PERIODS OF THESE RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD
TO INSTANCES OF STREET FLOODING. AS A RESULT, MOST OF SOUTHEAST TX
IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LATE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC ALREADY HAS
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 OUTLINED IN A 15% PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SPRING BREAK BEING NEXT WEEK FOR
MOST OF YOU, DON'T TURN A BLIND EYE TO THE FORECAST. STAY UP TO DATE
ON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND STAY WEATHER PREPARED.
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH PAST US,
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES...SO WE HAVE THAT TO LOOK FORWARD TO!
BATISTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
BROADLY SPEAKING, TONIGHT/TOMORROW LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS HANGING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT
RATHER THAN CALMING, AND CIGS DOWN TO IFR/LOW MVFR. SPECIFIC
TIMING OF THE DEGRADATION WILL BE TRICKY AS ALWAYS, AND MAY NEED
AMENDMENTS TO KEEP ON TRACK THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEEP SEA FOG IMPACT
MAINLY LIMITED TO GLS, WITH SOME MODEST IMPOSITION ON LBX AS WELL.
THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH MOST MANAGING
TO RETURN TO LOW VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON ALBEIT WITH A SMATTERING OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED -TSRA. STARTING OUT WITH
PROB30 -SHRA MENTIONS FOR NOW.
AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST, CONTINUE TO HAGGLE WITH SPECIFICS
ON LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE SKETCHED OUT HOURS
ARE LARGELY FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE CYCLES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING KEPT THE FOG AWAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
LATER IN THE EVENING VISIBILITIES BEGAN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF GALVESTON BAY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
CAN'T RULE OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING ISSUED OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BRIEFLY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT SEA FOG WILL BE AN INTERMITTENT ISSUE UNTIL A FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG, AN ELONGATED FETCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONGSIDE 3-5
FT SEAS. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH THE CAUTION FLAG THRESHOLD
AT TIMES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AS THESE STORMS PUSH THROUGH AS WELL.
SPRING BREAK BEGINS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. JUST A GENTLE
REMINDER THAT THERE ARE ALMOST ALWAYS RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACH.
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND AWAY FROM ROCKS, JETTIES, AND PIERS WHERE
RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY STRONGEST. ALSO AVOID SWIMMING ON THE
EASTERN/WESTERN TIPS OF GALVESTON ISLAND. (47)
BATISTE
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING OUT ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES, SO THIS IS WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR IF THIS PANS OUT. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4+" AS STORMS
TRAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS YOU ALL ARE AWARE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF US HAVE NOT SEEN
NOTABLE RAIN SINCE FEBRUARY 14TH WHICH IS COMING UP ON 3 WEEKS AGO.
~90% OF THE REGION IS IN A SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT...~26% OF THE
REGION IS IN AN EXTREME DROUGHT (MOSTLY WEST OF THE BRAZOS RIVER AND
LIBERTY COUNTY).
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH COULD POSE AN
ISSUE WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES OCCURING OVER DRY, COMPACTED SOILS.
WHEN SOILS GET TOO DRY, THEY AREN'T ABLE TO ABSORB RAINFALL AS
EFFICIENTLY LEADING TO A QUICKER TRANSITION TO RUNOFF. RAINFALL
RATES OF ~2-3" PER HOUR COMBINED WITH THESE DRY SOILS COULD LEAD TO
INSTANCES OF STREET FLOODING, SO WE'LL BE MONITORING WHERE THESE
HEAVIER RAINS FALL WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE COAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. WE'RE ALSO CONTINUING TO MONITOR DOWNSTREAM FLOWS
FROM WEDNESDAY'S HEAVY RAIN EVENT NEAR DALLAS IN WHICH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL FELL INTO THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN. FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO
FAR THOUGH, LAKE LIVINGSTON WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE THIS INFLOW.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.
AS FAR AS RIVERS GO, ACTION TO MINOR STAGE FLOODING ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IS ON THE TABLE.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 84 59 72 / 20 80 70 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 85 68 77 / 20 80 80 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 76 66 74 / 10 60 70 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...BATISTE
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