583
FXUS64 KHGX 041821
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
121 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, MORE CLOUDS, AND BREEZIER, ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE.
- WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD INITIATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW COULD BE STRONG =SEVERE NORTH OF I-10.
- THOUGH NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS, GULF MOISTURE IS FLOWING BACK
INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS, RH'S, AND CLOUD
COVER. INSTEAD OF THE 50S LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD INTO THE 68-75F RANGE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AND WITH WARMER STARTS TO THE DAY,
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE A BIT HIGHER TOO.
WEAK FRONT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THAT WE'LL SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS WE GET INTO PEAK
HEATING. AM STILL WEARY OF THE CAPPING SITUATION THAT MIGHT HAVE
TO BE OVERCOME FIRST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION, BUT THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR THAT TO HAPPEN WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR (AND MORE SPECIFICALLY OUR NE COUNTIES NEAR LAKE
LIVINGSTON) AS WE HEAD INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. LET'S KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELL OR TWO THERE.
THERE'S LESS FCST INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LOSS OF HEATING, BUT NOT TO THE POINT
OF IGNORING CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY OFF
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR A CONTINUED MESSY SW FLOW
ALOFT, AND WE'D ANTICIPATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
TSTM CHANCES TO CONTINUE BOTH AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE FRONT INTO
THURSDAY.
THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH IN THE GULF ON FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY
LEAVING A WEAK PSEUDO COASTAL TROF IN THE AREA HEADING INTO
SATURDAY. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD, THE MID-UPPER LOW SITUATED
OVER NCNL MEXICO WILL BE WEAKENING/FILLING AND EVENTUALLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL, THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOESN'T LOOK AS BULLISH
IN TERMS OF WEEKEND POPS AS YESTERDAY, BUT WOULD STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH THIS GENERAL PATTERN. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH SCT TO BKN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 9-12KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. THE GUSTS WILL END BY THIS EVENING, BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 7-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 2000FT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 8-10Z AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED THE CAUTION FLAGS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THEY'LL PROBABLY NEED TO THE EXTENDED INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY TOO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG IN
TERMS OF WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SWING BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 87 73 86 / 0 0 10 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 86 75 88 / 10 10 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 81 76 84 / 10 10 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...47
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