988  
FXUS64 KHGX 171136  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
636 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2019  
   
AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]
 
 
LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AGAIN A BAND OF LOW STRATUS  
OVER KCLL/KUTS/KCXO BUT MORE THICK TOWARDS KCLL WITH IFR/MVFR  
CEILINGS. FARTHER SOUTH CLOUDS ARE MORE THIN AND MAINTAIN VFR  
CONDITIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE 14-16Z WITH POSSIBLY A FEW  
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING 17-20Z IN THE HOUSTON AREA. TAFS DO NOT HAVE  
MENTION OF TSRA AS CONFIENCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE  
ISOLATED AT MOST. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY IN THE  
AFTERNOON BUT DECREASE AGAIN TONIGHT. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED  
TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS AND MVFR CEILNGS DEVELOPING FOR  
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO.  
 
OVERPECK  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 341 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2019/
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH  
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE EXPANDING OVER TEXAS WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 594DM. DEEP  
MOISTURE OF 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE  
TODAY SO WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THERE IS NOT MUCH LIFT IN THE  
ATMOSPHERE IF ANY AT ALL DUE TO THE RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODELS ONCE  
AGAIN SUGGEST SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE SEA  
BREEZE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE I-45 CORRIDOR. FORECAST  
WILL GO WITH SOME 20 POPS FOR TODAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY BUT  
BASED ON THE RIDGING, IT WILL BE HARD FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP  
WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE SEA BREEZE.  
 
LIKE YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AGAIN  
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 103F TO 108F RANGE. QUITE POSSIBLE FOR  
A FEW SPOTS TO GO ABOVE 108F IF MOISTURE DOES NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH,  
BUT WE THINK THESE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE FOR ISOLATED  
AREAS AND BRIEF. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT THERE  
COULD BE A CHANCE FOR ONE BEING ISSUED LATER ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS  
ALONG THE COAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LESS.  
 
OVERPECK  
 
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
AND TX THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT HOT WEATHER AND ONSHORE FLOW. A  
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO  
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO  
THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EACH DAY BOTTOMING OUT  
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE  
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT SHOULD  
THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISE AND BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OVERALL COVERAGE ON THE  
RISE SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWEST SATURDAY, AND AN INVERTED  
TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE  
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHWARD  
PARALLEL TO THE TX COAST SUNDAY, BRINGING WITH IT BETTER MOISTURE  
AND LIFT, HELPING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DRIER  
CONDITIONS AND SUNNIER SKIES RETURNING BY MID WEEK.  
 
HATHAWAY  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
OVERALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME  
FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KNOTS  
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 13-17 KNOTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL  
ALSO SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES AND RIP CURRENTS. TIDES SHOULD BE ABOUT A HALF  
FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS.  
 
OVERPECK  
   
CLIMATE
 
 
A COUPLE OF RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE SET YESTERDAY,  
JULY 16TH, ACROSS SE TX. FOR THE CITY OF GALVESTON, A RECORD HIGH  
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET, BREAKING THE OLD  
RECORD OF 84 DEGREES SET IN 1994. THIS ALSO ONCE AGAIN TIES THE  
WARMEST HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED FOR THE CITY OF  
GALVESTON. ADDITIONALLY, HOUSTON HOBBY RECORDED A HIGH MINIMUM  
TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 79 DEGREES  
SET IN 2010. FINALLY, THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE CITY OF  
COLLEGE STATION YESTERDAY WAS 79 DEGREES, WHICH TIES THE RECORD  
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 79 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2009.  
 
HATHAWAY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 95 76 95 / 0 0 10 0 0  
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 79 93 78 93 / 20 0 10 0 10  
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 89 84 90 / 10 0 10 0 10  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...OVERPECK  
 
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