810  
FXUS64 KHGX 191809  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
1209 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2021  
   
AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]
 
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILING OF AROUND 8000  
TO 9000FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD  
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME CHANGES LATER  
TODAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CLL AROUND 21Z, THEN  
THROUGH UTS AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING BRINGING WITH IT A NORTHERLY  
WIND SHIFT, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND CIGS AROUND 1500-2500FT. THIS  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE  
NIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND  
06-09Z. THE SHOWERS WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES, SO ONLY CLL  
AND UTS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF VCSH OR -SHRA THROUGH AROUND 3Z.  
HOWEVER, THE LOWERING CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 400-700FT,  
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BRINING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3-6 MILES.  
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MVFR CIGS MAY  
RETURN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
FOWLER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2021/
 
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
AT 3 AM, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE STATE FROM ABOUT  
TEXARKANA TO AUSTIN TO DEL RIO. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS  
WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY GETS  
SHUNTED NORTH AND WEST AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NUDGES INTO THE  
REGION FROM THE EAST. IT'S A PRETTY WARM START TO THE DAY AS  
CLOUDS AND A BIT OF MIXING FROM WINDS KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60  
SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH HEATING TO BOOST MAXT VALUES BACK INTO THE  
70'S, AND POSSIBLY MID/UPPER 70'S DEPENDING ON WHETHER THERE ARE A  
COUPLE BREAKS OF SUN.  
 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SHOULD  
REACH THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AROUND 00Z OR SO. THE FRONT WILL  
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE  
CWA BUT DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE THE  
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RAIN. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REST OF THE  
REGION THIS EVENING REACHING HOUSTON AROUND 03Z AND THE COAST  
AROUND 09Z. THE COOL AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS SHALLOW  
WITH STRONG CAPPING IN THE 85-70 MB LAYER. MOISTURE TRAPPED  
BENEATH THE CAP WILL BRING A LOW OVERCAST AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE  
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET  
GUIDANCE SINCE IT GENERALLY HANDLES THESE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASSES  
BETTER THAN THE GFS AND THE BLENDS.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND  
EVENTUALLY SE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MODEST ON  
WEDS WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.20 AND 1.40 INCHES WITH THE DEEPER  
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. JET DYNAMICS LOOK  
MEAGER AND OTHER THAN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE  
THE DIFFUSE FRONT, NOT FINDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT. FCST  
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR  
AT 850 MB AND STRONG CAPPING AT 700 MB. TEMPERATURES WON'T FALL  
MUCH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH CLOUD  
COVER SHOULD KEEP MINT VALUES ON THE WARM SIDE. FCST SOUNDINGS DO  
SHOW THE MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 06Z AND  
TOWARD THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK A BIT HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.70 INCHES. COULD  
START TO SEE SOME SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC  
DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 60'S OVERRIDING COOLER WATER  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50'S. 43  
 
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...  
 
ON THURSDAY, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN  
COUNTIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE HIGHER RAIN  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-10, AND WITH THE LACK OF ANY  
INSTABILITY OR LIFT, THESE WILL MAINLY REMAIN SHOWERS. ONSHORE  
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA INCREASING  
PWS TO AROUND 1.80 INCHES, BUT THE MAJOR MOISTURE AXIS WILL  
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG THE COASTAL  
COUNTIES, SEA FOG WELL BECOME AN ISSUE STARTING THURSDAY AND  
CURRENT PROFILES SUGGEST TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY  
CONTINUES THE SAME TREND WITH THE BOUNDARY MIGRATING SOME IN THE  
NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT STILL KEEPING MOST RAIN CHANCES NORTH.  
 
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE CWA  
AND ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS IN THE  
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES WILL STILL  
REMAIN OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA. TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LITE SIDE  
WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH BEING GENEROUS AND TRACE AMOUNTS MORE  
PROBABLE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING  
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF  
THE EAST AND RIDGES INTO THE REGION. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL  
PERSIST FOR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
SATURDAY SHOWING BRIEF A COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S  
FRONT. LOWS WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 UNTIL  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION NEXT MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY  
COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING NEXT TUESDAY. 35  
 
MARINE...  
 
CURRENTLY, SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS  
20-60NM OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.  
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCEC CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN  
WATERS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO 6FT SEAS UNTIL THOSE SUBSIDE AS  
WELL. WITH WARM AIR MOVING OVER OUR COLD SHELF WATERS, SEA FOG IS  
EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS  
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEA FOG ARE WED-FRI DUE TO  
FAVORABLE E-NE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON  
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS  
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HELP DISSIPATE THAT SEA  
FOG. KBL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 48 60 54 70 61 / 60 20 20 40 50  
HOUSTON (IAH) 54 66 59 73 64 / 10 10 10 30 50  
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 65 60 68 62 / 10 10 10 20 30  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA  
SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND  
TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX  
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX  
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
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