668  
FXUS64 KHGX 082252  
AFDHGX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
552 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2022  
   
AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]
 
 
SEA BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS MOSTLY NORTH OF  
THE I-10 CORRIDOR, SO IAH AND SOUTHWARD IS LIKELY DONE WITH  
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE DAY. LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A  
SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTING, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LBX  
COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECREASED VISIBILITES FROM  
10Z-12Z. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING AND  
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA  
BREEZE ROLLS IN. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z AND  
PUSHING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STICKING  
WITH VCSH IN ALL OF THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SPARSE  
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON  
TUESDAY EVENING MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO LINGER NEAR CLL/UTS A FEW  
HOURS PAST SUNSET.  
 
BATISTE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2022/
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
SEEING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA/BAY BREEZE THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING  
HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES FURTHER INLAND. ALSO, SEEING TEMPS NEAR  
100 WELL INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. I THINK  
TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. WE MAY HAVE SOME  
CONVECTION DEVELOP ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS  
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS TOMORROW, SO THAT IS A DIFFERENCE  
TO LOOK OUT FOR.  
 
WOOD  
 

 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED, AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF  
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE  
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LVL INVERTED  
TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT  
VALUES (AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES) ALONG A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. IN  
ADDITION TO A WELL SATURATED LAYER, DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN  
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN EFFICIENT  
FORCING. HAVING SAID THAT, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL  
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST WEDNESDAY INTO  
EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION  
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND CONVERGENT SFC ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
HAVE CONTINUED WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING  
THIS TIME FRAME, WITH POPS LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT,  
WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.  
THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM  
THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UPPER-LVL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE  
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING BACK OUR TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER  
PATTERN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND SCATTERED  
CONVECTION INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HAVE KEPT  
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.  
 
05  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FT  
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT INTO  
EARLY MORNINGS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE TX COAST FROM THE  
CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY, INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION  
WILL BE ON THURSDAY, BUT PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. WHILE SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME-FRAME, FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
05  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 103 78 100 77 / 20 20 10 30 30  
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 99 77 96 75 / 20 30 10 50 30  
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 92 83 92 82 / 10 20 20 40 40  
 

 
   
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WOOD  
LONG TERM...05  
AVIATION...BATISTE  
MARINE...05  
 
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