854
FXUS64 KHGX 272339
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 PM CST WED JAN 27 2021
AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER SUNSET, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COME TO AN END
AFTER 01Z. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUD DECK. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL BRING A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF THE WIND DIRECTION FROM
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY. GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW,
SO WENT WITH BKN250 FOR ALL AIRPORTS AROUND THIS TIME TO COINCIDE
WITH THE MORE EASTERLY WIND. LONG STORY SHORT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
26
PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 346 PM CST WED JAN 27 2021/
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
CURRENTLY, SE TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING A MILD DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS, TEMPS IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 60S, AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO 30S AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. GUSTY NNW WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME NE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT, BUT SOME UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
OFFSHORE. NNW AND NE WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S SOUTH OF I-10 AND IN THE MID-30S FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW ALLOWING
MORE SOLAR INSOLATION, CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A
LITTLE COLDER TOMORROW WITH OUR CWA STRUGGLING TO REACH 60.
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW, THE RETURN OF SE WINDS WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS
CREEP UP INTO THE MID 40S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 AND UPPER 30S NEAR
40 AREAS NORTH OF I-10. KBL
LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE MID 70 WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING MID TO UPPER 50S RESPECTIVELY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
STILL BE A BIT WARMER AS A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXACT TIMING COULD CHANGE THE LOWS BY A BIT. AS OF NOW, FROPA
IS EXPECTED EARLY MORNING BUT WINDS SHIFTS ARE NET EXPECTED TO
BRING IN COOLER AIR UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. NORTHERN COUNTIES
ARE STILL LOOKING TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S BUT MID TO UPPER 50S IS
STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL IS STILL LOOKING SPARSE
AS THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING WEAK AND MOISTURE DEPRIVED; DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW. MID LEVELS ARE STILL LOOKING DRY, SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS 30 PERCENT RH AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AT 850MB. WITH
THAT SAID, SOMEONE IS GOING TO SEE SOME LIQUID FALLING FROM THE
SKY, BUT I WOULDN'T TURN THE TIMER OFF ON THE SPRINKLER SYSTEM
JUST YET.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS YET AGAIN AND BLUE SKIES SHOWING BY MID DAY FOR MOST
AREAS. THE COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW AND
HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 70. WINDS WILL RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHERLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL STAY IN
THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BY MID WEEK, ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST (AGAIN)
AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DEEPEN.
35
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION OFFSHORE WINDS STILL
STOUT AND EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THEN GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY NOON...A LITTLE
FASTER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE. SEAS THOUGH 7-9 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOWER TO COME DOWN. WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY AND WILL SEE THE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
NORMAL TIDE LEVEL INCREASE. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS OUT OF AZ INTO OK AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM BRINGING A
LONG STRONG FETCH BACK INTO THE REGION AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9
FEET BY MID WEEK WITH THE STRONG WAA.
45
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 35 59 39 64 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 40 60 42 62 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 47 57 51 59 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20
NM...GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SHORT TERM...KBL
LONG TERM...35
AVIATION...26
MARINE...45
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