845
FXUS64 KHGX 031109
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOSELY MONITORING WEATHER FOR THE THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH
INCREASED HEAT STRESS EXPECTED.
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 100-
107F (38-42C).
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES. LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, THEN SCATTERS/ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE LARGER SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE POSITION OF THE STOUT RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE 00Z
CANADIAN ANALYZED A BROAD REGION OF 597DM ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CLOSER TO HOME, WE SAW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH WERE
STRONG. CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WEAK IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INLAND. MIMIC-TPW HAS SHOWN THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE RICHER
MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS WE HEAD
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW THE STOUT
RIDGE BREAKDOWN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A NEW RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
TO OUR WEST, A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS MAY HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL HOT
DAYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE SEEN
US MIX RELATIVELY EFFICIENTLY, KEEPING DEWPOINTS A TOUCH LOWER
THAN FORECASTED. THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE INTRODUCED SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY AND ON THE FOURTH OF JULY, WHICH WAS
MAINTAINED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS LOWERS RH VALUES
SLIGHTLY, WHICH WILL KEEP MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES FROM
EXCEEDING 107F (42C). WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
THE 100-107F (38-42C) RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS REMAINS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID,
NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS STILL NEED TO BE CARRIED OUT, INCLUDING
FREQUENT HYDRATION AND BREAKS FROM THE HEAT WITH SHADE/AC. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS AVIATION UPDATE. GOES NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY REVEALS LOW LEVEL STRATUS OFF TO OUR WEST.
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR OUR MORE INLAND LOCATIONS AS THEY ARE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS MAY
MOVE INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, MAINLY AT GLS/LBX.
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE TODAY WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR TSRA CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF ANY ACTIVITY
MAKES IT A BIT FURTHER INLAND, WE WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TAFS AS NEEDED.
LOOKING AT TONIGHT, WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.
THE LATEST HREF PROBS HINT AT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN.
HOWEVER, WILL LEAN TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH THIS UPDATE AS THEY
HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. IF ANY LOW LEVEL CEILINGS
DEVELOP, WOULD EXPECT THEM TO BE BRIEF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
LIGHT S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND CALM SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS EACH MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTLINE AND BAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 78 96 78 / 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 10 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...CASTILLO
MARINE...WILLIAMS
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