182
FXUS64 KHGX 200000
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIMITED COOLING
OVERNIGHT WILL EXACERBATE THE HEAT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE
IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WIND CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
- A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR SPARKED
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH, ALLOWING ENOUGH
FORCING FOR POCKETS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR NORTH.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD BEFORE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATES ALTOGETHER
LATE THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
CONVECTION WILL TRIGGER SECONDARY CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE, SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY
STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. THIS TREND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING, AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING; HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY IMPACT
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS VERY LOW; AS IT ALL DEPENDS ON
LINGERING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP TOO
WELL.
THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERNS IS THE HEAT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS
AND OUTFLOWS HAVE COOLED SOME OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT WHERE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED, HEAT INDICES HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. NOT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE HEAT INDICIES ABOVE 107
(HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA) BUT GIVEN HOT CONDITIONS AND LITTLE
RELIEF OVERNIGHT, WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, DEWPOINTS AND RH DECREASE SOMEWHAT,
WITH HEAT INDICES BELOW 107. BASED ON THE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
HEAT, WILL HOLD OFF FROM EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. HEAT MAY BECOME A CONCERN
ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
FORTUNATELY, OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DECREASE A BIT, SO AT LEAST
SOME RELIEF WILL BE FELT OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE VICINITY OF IAH, HOU, DWH, AND SGR FOR
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHER REMNANT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST NEAR UTS AND CXO THROUGH AROUND
01Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH A FEW CEILINGS POTENTIALLY DOWN TO NEAR IFR OVER
THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINED LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY KEEP PROB30 MENTION IN THE
LOCAL TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS
BETWEEN 3 TO 6FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 91 77 93 / 30 50 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 92 79 93 / 50 50 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 89 83 89 / 40 30 40 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...CLL
MARINE...JTC
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