851
FXUS64 KHGX 141803
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
103 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTER TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STREET FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- HOT WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICIES IN THE LOWER 100S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST TX. WITH LOCAL PWS STILL RANGING
AROUND 2.0 INCHES, SOME SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH RAIN RATE OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE, BUT EXPECT SOME PONDING OF WATER TO PERSISTS OVERNIGHT
OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAD GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. ONE GOOD
THING ABOUT ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE IS THAT THE
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY THOUGH FOR
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
TODAY'S BUT GIVEN THAT SOILS ARE PRETTY SATURATED FROM ALL THE
RAINFALL RECEIVED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, IT WONT TAKE MUCH FOR
MINOR FLOODING ISSUES TO OCCUR IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR WEDNESDAY. MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF
RECEIVING WEATHER UPDATES AND WARNINGS AND CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE DEPARTING TO YOUR DESTINATION. NEVER CROSS FLOODED AREAS
AND HEED ALL ROAD CLOSURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF I-45 (IN PARTICULAR, OVER THE
BRAZOS VALLEY REGION).
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WE
WILL ALSO HAVE THE TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S.
COTTO
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.
WITHIN THE TSRA, IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS (FROM IAH/DWH NORTHWARD) WITH VFR CIGS SOUTH.
OCCASIONALLY, LIFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT A FEW SITES, BUT
THIS SHOULD CEASE AFTER 12Z. AFTER 17Z, MOST OF THE TSRA WILL
TRANSITION TO SHRA, THEN END AROUND 21Z AT ALL SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER, EXCEPT FOR CLL WHERE SOME MVFR
CIGS SNEAK IN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR IAH, SOME TSRA MAY
REDEVELOP AFTER 15Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE
HIGHER IN AND NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 72 85 72 / 90 20 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 81 74 86 75 / 90 10 60 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 82 89 84 / 80 20 50 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...COTTO
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