388
FXUS64 KHGX 151124
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
- ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY PERSIST IN THE MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BRINGING GENERALLY PERSISTENT WEATHER TO OUR AREA, WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HEAT INDICES UP TO
109F ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL TRACK
EASTWARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED AND
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. ANY STORMS LATE-MORNING SHOULD
MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT, WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS OVERALL, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME WITH A
FEW STRAY STORMS POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ANY CASE, THESE WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THURSDAY. A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WITH GFS
PWATS IN PARTICULAR APPROACHING AN IMPRESSIVE 2.5". THE LATTER WOULD
BRING MORE FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION/CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, HOWEVER
THE FORMER WILL MAKE THE CAP MUCH STRONGER AND WOULD INHIBIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE GREATEST CAPPING DEVELOPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
SURGE MOVES WEST OF OUR AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ELONGATED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND BECOME
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST.
THIS SHOULD ALL YIELD MINIMAL POPS, ALTHOUGH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT PSX WITH CLOUD COVER JUST BELOW
3000 FT. ALL OTHER SITES AT VFR THIS MORNING. EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN TODAY WITH COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING AND PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE TOWARDS SUNSET. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
BAILEY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LIGHT SE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM, PEAKING NEAR
15 KTS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE DUE EASTERLY
DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 20 KTS FROM EAST TO WEST ON
THURSDAY, BEFORE SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND INCREASE. THESE WILL SUBSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 78 94 79 / 20 0 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 84 91 83 / 20 10 20 60
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335-338.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...BAILEY
MARINE...AP
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