515
FXUS64 KHGX 180323
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL, WITH TEMPERATURES SKEWING A
LITTLE HOTTER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS EVEN IF WE REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
"I'M GONNA KEEP IT 100 WITH Y'ALL"...IS WHAT MOTHER NATURE TOLD
US THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SOUTHEAST TX
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 596-597 DAM MID-LEVEL HIGH ("HEATDOME")
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NONE AS A RESULT...OUR "BEST" CHANCE OF
RAIN COMES FRIDAY/SATURDAY BUT EVEN THAT IS ONLY AROUND 10% (MORE
ON THAT LATER). ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE HAD A FEW LOCATIONS REACH
THE CENTURY MARK, BUT THIS WAS AIDED BY DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
LINGER NORTH OF I-10. FURTHER SOUTH, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGAN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE "COOLER"...BUT HEAD
INDICES WILL BE A BIT WARMER. MAX HEAT INDICES ON MONDAY WERE
MAINLY IN THE 102-105F RANGE WHEREAS ON TUESDAY WE'RE LOOKING MORE
IN THE 104-107F RANGE. STILL ANTICIPATING ENOUGH MIXING IN THE
AFTERNOONS TO KEEP US JUST BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. EVEN
IF A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT, IT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY
HOT ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE 99TH TO MAX PERCENTILES
(NAEFS/GEFS) WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THAT'S OCCURING ANOTHER
POCKET OF DRIER AIR (PW'S AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE: ~1.51") MOVING
IN ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE DRY AIR WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED WAS
CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE (~1.24") AT ITS PEAK, SO THE AIR WON'T
BE AS DRY. HOWEVER, IT'LL LIKELY BE DRY ENOUGH TO BRING WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT HEAT INDICES LIKE WE
SAW ON MONDAY, BUT AGAIN THIS HEAT WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS IF
OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, SO
THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT FROM THE HEAT. SPEAKING OF
OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FEW MORNINGS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-45.
THIS TREND UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MONTH WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIM AT BEST. SLIM ISN'T ZERO THOUGH, SO
LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES COME FROM. AFTER
MIDWEEK, THE HEATDOME SLIDES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH PLACES US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WE
MAY CATCH SOME PVA ON THE TAILEND OF THIS TROUGH. NOW THE FRONT IS
NOT GOING TO MAKE IT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO HERE, BUT IT LIKELY WILL
SERVE AS AN INITIATION POINT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
SOUTHWARD. HOW FAR SOUTH DOES THAT CONVECTION LAST? WHO KNOWS!
WILL WE HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WILL THE RIDGE BE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW FOR SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION?
MAYBE! ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS A DRY SOLUTION FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS THAT BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX OVER THE WEEKEND. MAYBE IF ENOUGH OF US
WASH OUR CARS WE CAN MAKE THAT LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION A REALITY!
WITH HOT CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO KEEP HEAT SAFETY AT THE TOP OF YOUR MINDS FOR ANY PLANS
THAT YOU MAKE (ESPECIALLY IF OUTDOORS). KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES, STAY HYDRATED (WITH WATER), TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT, WEAR LOOSE/LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING AND SUNSCREEN, AND
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE. DON'T FORGET
ABOUT YOUR PETS AS WELL! IF THE GROUND IS TOO HOT FOR THE PALM OF
YOUR HAND, THEN IT IS TOO HOT FOR THEIR PAWS.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, TURN OUT OF THE
WSW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THEN PICK BACK UP AND TURN OUT OF THE
SSE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, MVFR CIG/VIS IS POSSIBLE AT
SOME SITES (CLL/UTS/CXO/LBX) EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS LIFT AND
FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
MLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUES WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 15 KT
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN DECREASE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 100 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 99 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 91 83 91 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...BATISTE
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