517
FXUS64 KHGX 161707
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1207 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- SEASONABLY HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED/SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE REGION CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY, BRINGING AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. DESPITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER MID-WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT DIFFERENT VORT MAXES AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXTENDED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASED MOISTURE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING AT CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF, AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE OF A COASTAL TROUGH/DISTURBANCE OVER THE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE TX COAST/NORTHWESTERN GULF. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASING INTO THE 2.0 INCH RANGE. OVERALL, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
JM
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THOUGH NOT NORMALLY SCHEDULED CURRENTLY, WANTED TO DROP IN A QUICK
NOTE TO COVER TODAY'S 18Z ISSUANCE, PARTICULARLY THE EXTENDED AT
IAH. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS OVER THE AREA, DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN. TOO ISOLATED TODAY TO JUSTIFY A MENTION IN ANY
TAFS, BUT TOMORROW EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NEAR
THE SEABREEZE. AS SUCH, ADDED A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT IAH FOR
PLANNING PURPOSES. WILL WORK TO REFINE EXPECTATIONS FOR THERE AND
AT OTHER SEABREEZE-IMPACTED SITES IN FUTURE CYCLES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS, LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK.
CAUTION FLAGS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENINGS/EARLY MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS,
A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNINGS.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER MIDWEEK AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE BEST RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 93 70 93 / 0 20 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 93 73 92 / 20 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 80 89 / 10 20 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...JM
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