980
FXUS64 KHGX 222310
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
610 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND
SOUTH WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DAILY.
- LESS HUMID AFTER MIDWEEK FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, WE'LL KEEP LOW END RAIN CHANCES WITH A COMBINATION
OF DAYTIME HEATING, SEA BREEZE, AND A FRONT STALLED JUST TO OUR
NORTH. MAINLY 20-30 POPS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. PWAT VALUES NEAR 2" WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITHIN THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SHALLOW FRONT LOOKS TO DRIFT SOUTH
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES MORE TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA - MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT
THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH TOWARD MATAGORDA BAY.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN/DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS THIS SHIFT OCCURS, A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE IT'S TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CLARITY IN THE
RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK, THERE IS PLENTY OF SUPPORT (ENSEMBLES
AND CLUSTERS) IN THE EXPECTED CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH
THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND FLOW LIKELY BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE DRIER AIR IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSING
OF THE WEAK FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH OF
A CHANGE. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS PERSISTING IN THE 90S EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 90S LATER IN THE WEEK THANKS TO THE DRIER
AIR. ANOTHER THING WE CAN THANK THE DRIER AIR FOR WILL BE SOME
(SLIGHTLY) LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK FOR
INLAND AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CITY. A FEW SPOTS COULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR NEAR KCXO AROUND
SUNRISE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO GENERALLY THE SAME
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 30%. VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWER CIGS AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF WILL BE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. IN THE BAYS, THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15
KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
GENERALLY 2-3 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 98 76 97 / 20 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 97 78 96 / 30 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 91 83 91 / 20 10 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PH
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...PH
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