672
FXUS64 KHGX 192328
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- NHC HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT, BUT IT MAY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. SEE
THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR MORE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THIS DISCUSSION WILL TOUCH ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO, BUT A MORE
IN-DEPTH DISCUSSION IS FOUND BELOW IN THE TROPICAL SECTION.
--
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE OVER SE TEXAS PROVIDING US WITH
HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MONDAY WITH
POSSIBLE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT
INDICIES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY, AND MAY APPROACH 107-108 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER
HUMIDITY MOVES IN FROM THE COAST.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE KEEPING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO OUT IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT THIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETREAT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW TD TWO (THEN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA) TO SLIDE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST ON
THE UNDERSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WESTWARD SHIFT HAPPENS AND THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE MEANDERING TROPICAL SYSTEM WHEN IT DOES WILL LEAD
TO LARGE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES. AT THIS POINT, THE
EARLIEST REASONABLE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
IN OUR COASTAL WATERS WOULD BE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT THE
MOST LIKELY IS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR WEST BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CLOUD DECK AT 015-025 OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
MVFR CONDITIONS ON THE CIGS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE CXO, A
NORMALLY FOG-PRONE TERMINAL, WHICH COULD SEE FOG AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NOW, KEPT CONDITIONS ABOVE MVFR RESTRICTIONS, BUT
WILL REASSESS IN LATER FORECASTS. WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE S/SW
AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
YOUNG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY, EXPECT DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ~10-15 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE PROCESSES
MAY BACK WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-3 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY, THE AREA MAY
FEEL THE EARLY EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF. BY WEDNESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM
IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE GRADIENT COULD STEEPEN
ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS AND OFFSHORE SEAS UP TO 4
FEET BY WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEM. AT A
MINIMUM, THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND
SEAS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLY CONDITIONS ON BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OFFSHORE ZONES).
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS (AT LEAST IN RAINBANDS) ARE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IF THE STORM MANAGES TO TRACK SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES,
AS THIS IS AN EVOLVING SITUATION.
SELF
TROPICAL
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, PRODUCING A BROAD REGION OF
SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THEN, THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE
TRICKY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A GROWING RISK THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A
WESTERLY TURN, POSSIBLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO SE TEXAS BY THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR A FEW REASONS. FIRST, THE SYSTEM REMAINS
IN ITS EARLY DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES. THIS STAGE IS NOTORIOUS FOR
COMPUTER MODEL ERRORS. IN ADDITION, WE ARE WAITING FOR HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA THAT WILL BE CRUCIAL IN ASSESSING THE SYSTEM'S
FUTURE POTENTIAL. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF A
WEST VERSUS SOUTHWEST STEERING COMPONENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK. A
STRONGER RIDGE COULD KEEP THE STORM SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND OVER THE
OPEN GULF, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM MORE ROOM FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION.
BUT A TRACK FARTHER NORTH COULD PLACE THE SYSTEM OVER LOUISIANA,
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION.
REGARDING TIMING OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS, WE CANNOT RULE OUT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS IN OUTER RAINBANDS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING
OVER THE GULF WATERS, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINS, AND POTENTIALLY INCREASED WINDS, BY THURSDAY. BUT THE SCALE
AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT SO
LONG AS THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. WE WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS
THESE POTENTIAL FUTURE IMPACTS BETTER AS MORE DATA IS OBTAINED AND
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS IS AN EVOLVING
SITUATION.
SELF
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 91 80 93 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...SELF
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