712
FXUS64 KHGX 221116
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS. TWO AREAS OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. FIRST,
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL START AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS.
ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO CLL
LATE TONIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY REACH UTS AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. AS
THE RAIN FROM THE GULF SPREADS INLAND OVERNIGHT, IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. 22
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 333 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH
SUN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RADARS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND ALSO OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. OUR AREA
SHOULD SEE SLOWLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
AS WE HEAD ON INTO TONIGHT (VALUES GENERALLY LOWER UP NORTH AND HIGHER
AT THE COAST/OFFSHORE) AS A COASTAL TROF AND SURFACE LOWS BEGIN TO
GET ORGANIZED OFF THE TEXAS COAST. MUCH OF OUR AREA COULD SEE A
LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SO WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
AS WE HEAD ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOWS REMAIN IN
OUR VICINITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE WILLA (A NEAR CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 155 MPH WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 1 AM, AND MORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
LANDFALL) WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. ANTICIPATE RAINS TO COME
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING FOUR DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MIGHT OCCUR DEPENDING ON WHERE SOME OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES SET UP AND/OR MOVE INLAND AND WHERE ANY TRAINING
AND/OR SLOW MOVING STORMS DEVELOP). QUIET WEATHER IS STILL IN STORE
FOR THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THIS MESS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER. 42
MARINE...
SEAS ARE STILL 7-8 FT IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS, SO ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 7 AM TODAY. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE WESTERN GULF WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND WAVES AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT PERIODS OF CAUTION FLAGS AND
ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS PROGRESS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF. 22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 66 53 65 55 62 / 30 50 40 40 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 68 55 64 57 66 / 30 60 50 50 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 61 67 65 72 / 30 60 50 50 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...22
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