188
FXUS64 KHGX 190511
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER TEMPERATE AND DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THOUGH WARMER
THAN THIS PAST WEEKEND.
- MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED BUT A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPS EARLY THIS WEEK, WHICH MAY OCCASIONALLY
REQUIRE INTERMITTENT CAUTION OR ADVISORY FLAGS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK, BUT JUST SEASONABLE IN
NATURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW ACROSS OUR CWA
OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY, WHERE A PASSING GULF TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN
TO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS AND MATAGORDA BAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
MORE OF THE SAME WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS HUMIDITY LOW, WINDS GENTLE (5-10 MPH) OUT OF THE EAST, AND
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE STEADILY, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY REACHING THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S WITH INLAND LOWS IN THE LOW
50S-60S AND COASTAL LOWS IN THE MID 60S-LOW 70S. THE FRONT PART OF
THE WORKWEEK BRINGS THE "HIGHEST" CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT IS LARGELY
CONFINED OFFSHORE. MONDAY SEES POPS OF 10-30% OFF BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTY COASTS. A SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
PWATS (~1.5", NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE) TO MATAGORDA BAY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS OFFSHORE, 20-40 POPS
APPROACH THE COASTLINE. AROUND THESE SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WINDS ARE A TOUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE ~15-20 MPH AND SEAS ELEVATE TO
~3-5 FT. SIMILAR SETUP ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS 15-30% POPS, DISSIPATING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER OUR COAST-ISOLATED SHOWERS, THE REST OF THE WEEK IS DRY AND
CONTINUES WARMING. THIS IS PARTIALLY EXPLAINED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK
DEVELOPING ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY. THESE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS
ESSENTIALLY "TRAP" HIGH PRESSURE AND, FOR OUR REGION, INDICATE DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. BY THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LARGELY
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INLAND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S-60S AND COASTAL LOWS IN THE MID 60S-LOW 70S.
BSM
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS NORTH OF I-10 WILL BE OUT
OF THE ENE AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WHILE WINDS SOUTH OF
I-10 WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS RELAX BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z
BAILEY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OFF TO OUR EAST, A LONG FETCH OF
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS WEEK. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH MIDWEEK, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS AND SEAS IN
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WHICH COULD WARRANT CAUTION OR ADVISORY
FLAGS FOR SHORT TIME PERIODS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
47/BSM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 59 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 72 79 72 79 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BSM
AVIATION...BAILEY
MARINE...47/BSM
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