407
FXUS64 KLCH 180509
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1209 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR HAS DISSIPATED.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURGES OF UP TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ARE NOW ONSHORE NEAR
GALVESTON AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE GULF. WHILE FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS NOT A CONCERN, WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ACADIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN, THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT AS BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE 0-1 KM
SHEAR, WITH MODELS SHOWING ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
LOCAL IMPACTS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY BEING DOWNGRADED AS SURGE LEVELS REACH
ROUGHLY ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE MHHW. IN ADDITION, WE WILL BE PARING
BACK THE FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE EARLY, AT LEAST FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AS ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND, SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO LESS CLOUD
COVER AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR STILL IN EAST TEXAS, TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE DEW POINTS TO BE NEAR 80. THIS COMBINATION WILL SPIKE THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, AND A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S AND
HIGH DEW POINTS. MORE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVER THE WEEKEND, RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES BELOW 20% FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE MUCH APPRECIATED, AS QPF AMOUNTS FROM
FRIDAY TO NEXT WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 0.10 INCHES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING LFT AND ARA. NEAR
CONVECTION CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR/LIFR WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOW
CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR WITH LOW CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ARE NOW LOCATED INLAND
OVER TEXAS, AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
STRONG SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS OFFSHORE REMAIN
DANGEROUS, AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 10 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY, WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE, STAYING ABOVE 6 FEET
WELL INTO FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BE CALMER, WITH PREVAILING WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND WAVES BELOW 5 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50% FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LAZ073-074-241-
252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ615-616.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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