351
FXUS64 KLCH 291733
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1233 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK TO THE SURFACE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAKING THE AIR FEEL A BIT LESS OPPRESSIVE, BUT
DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK OFFERING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BROAD WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL AGAIN KEEP CONVECTION VERY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR BEING
ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY WHICH
WILL DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHILE THIS WILL
MAKE THE AIR FEEL A BIT LESS OPPRESSIVE, THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SO WHILE THE DIFFERENTIAL
BETWEEN ACTUAL AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SMALLER, THE FEEL
OF THE DRIER AIR WILL BE LARGELY OFFSET BY HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY WITH PRECIOUS LITTLE
RAIN AND DEWPOINTS AGAIN DROPPING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MORNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
GULF COAST ALLOWING A TROPICAL WAVE TO SLIDE SOUTH OF IT TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS WAVE, ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE, WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF TO THE WORSENING DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. NHC PRESENTLY GIVES THIS WAVE A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A NAMED TROPICAL SYSTEM ALTHOUGH VERY FEW RELIABLE MODELS
ACTUALLY ORGANIZE THE SYSTEM AT PRESENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A LOW END FLASH FLOODING RISK DESPITE THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A BROAD
WEAKNESS ALOFT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE PERSIST DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT THIS WILL BE A LESS THAN TYPICAL WEATHER DAY FOR
POP UP SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
VM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, AN INVERTED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PROVIDING
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NHC
PRESENTLY GIVES THIS DISTURBANCE A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
NAMED TROPICAL SYSTEM AND WHILE LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED,
INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
MINRH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 40 TO 50% RANGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH'S WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
WITH MINRH VALUES BACK IN THE 50 TO 60% RANGE AREA WIDE. THE ENTIRE
REGION REMAINS IN A MODERATE DROUGHT WITH KBDI VALUES RANGING FROM
500 TO 760.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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