321
FXUS64 KLCH 212317
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRINGS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
- THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND THERE IS A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ALL INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOW-LYING AREAS OR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA, ALONG WITH THOSE ALONG STREAM AND
RIVER BASINS SHOULD KEEP AWARE OF THE LATEST FLOOD RISK
FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH LA
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE ALOFT, THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SITUATED
BENEATH A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE WEST
AND RIDGING TO THE EAST. SAID STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WHILE ALOFT THE NEXT IN
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVERHEAD, INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT AS WELL AS THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD TO PROVIDING AMPLE
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WHILE THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH TOMORROW, THE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH MORE SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES
PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, INTERACTING
WITH THE MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL, UNSURPRISINGLY,
KEEP AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
MEMORIAL DAY OR POSSIBLE A BIT LONGER.
AREA RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE TX COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING TO FIRE UP OVER
SOUTH LA. THIS RAIN SHIELD TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE UP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, POSSIBLY LEADING TO
AREA OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS OUTLINED ALL OF SE TX AS
WELL AS ADJACENT PARTS OF SW LA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS INCLUDED IN THE
MARGINAL RISK. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.50-2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE CAN PRETTY MUCH RINSE
AND REPEAT THIS FORECAST, AS THIS UNSETTLED AND MOISTURE RICH
PATTERN CONTINUES. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH, NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WPC HAS OUTLINED ALL OF THE CWA IN EITHER A
MARGINAL AND/OR SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY, AS A RESULT. TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY, FORECASTED RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 2-6" (TOTAL FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD) HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10" ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH IS WHERE FLOODING ISSUES WOULD COME IN TO PLAY. ADDING TUESDAY
INTO THE MIX, WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF RAIN, AS A MORE
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX.
TEMPERATURE WISE, VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS
SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY,
WHILE A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SCATTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TSRA CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN.
NEAR SUNRISE PATCHY FOG WILL START TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH
MVFR VISIBILITY FOR ALL SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER SUNRISE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BUT MORE CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WAY
WITH PROB30 IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 5-15 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 1-4
FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PRODUCE SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING IN RICH AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 70 PERCENT OR GREATER EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROVIDE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page