588
FXUS64 KLCH 241208
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
608 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE POSES INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA
- MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER AND COLD AIR HAZARDS ARE IN AFFECT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE TO OUR NORTH A STRONG 1047MB COLD
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT, A CUT OFF LOW IS NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL ALL WORK TOGETHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS TO BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FROM THE ROCKIES TO SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
OVER ROUGHLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE BAJA LOW WILL EJECT NEWRD
EVENTUALLY 'LINKING UP' WITH THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND EVOLVING
INTO A ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT NEAR SOUTH TX, EJECTING NE TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER
BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS LOW EJECTS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
IT WILL ADVECT A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT, LEADING TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BEGINNING
AROUND THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS, THE COLD SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST.
FORTUNATELY, SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET TONIGHT, MEANING TODAY'S PRECIP WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF A COLD RAIN WITH NO WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. TONIGHT,
THE FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH SOUTH MAKING ITS WAY TO
NEAR THE I-190 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. THEREFORE, ONGOING PRECIP WILL
EVENTUALLY SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WILL BE
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SEEP IN FROM THE NORTH. ALOFT, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON,
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS A DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AND SHUNT THE MOISTURE
OFF TO OUR EAST. FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN 3RD OR THE FORECAST AREA,
MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY'S PRECIP WILL BE FREEZING RAIN, WITH ICE
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE. THE MIDDLE 3RD OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK, WHERE A DEGREE OR
TWO DIFFERENCE WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN/ICE. THE LOWER 3RD OF THE REGION WILL HAVE THE LEAST
LIKELY CHANCE OF SEEING ANY FROZEN PRECIP, WHILE IT'S NOT TOTALLY
OUT OF THE QUESTION CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNSET SUN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE RISK FOR FROZEN PRECIP WILL HAVE
ENDED, AND OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL PLUNGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 15-25 DEGREE RANGE FOR MON MORNING
LOWS. IN ADDITION, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ONGOING, LEADING
TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 4-11 DEGREE RANGE. THEREFORE, THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
MORNING HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S AMID CONTINUED BREEZY NORTH WINDS. BY MON
EVENING, WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO RELAX AND WE WILL START TO SEE
SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. MON
NIGHT/TUES MORNING WILL BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE FOR MORNING LOWS.
THEREFORE, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED (FOLLOWING THE
WARNING) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN US.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ON TUESDAY, AMID MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, WHILE WE FALL BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN TUES NIGHT/WED
MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPS MODERATE A BIT INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW CONTINUES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (EXCLUDING NEAR THE COAST). THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGS AN INTERESTING PATTERN CHANGE AS LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN
FROM CANADA INTO THE CONUS AT THE SAME TIME THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS IS OF
COURSE STILL 7-8 DAYS OUT, BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON ONCE WE GET PAST THIS WEEKENDS EVENT. (AND THERE ARE NOT MANY
TIMES YOU CAN WRITE ABOUT 2 DIFFERENT WINTER EVENTS IN THE SAME
FORECAST PERIOD ON THE GULF COAST)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
BKN TO OVC MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS ALL TERMINAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING VCSH AND
PERIODS OF RA. AS COLD AIR ADVECTS SOUTH, CEILINGS MAY LOWER INTO
IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR TONIGHT. FREEZING RAIN LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIMARILY TOWARD AEX BUT MAY START TO DEVELOP
TOWARD I-1O CORRIDOR SUN MORNING.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 40 24 35 16 / 100 90 90 10
LCH 53 32 41 21 / 90 100 90 0
LFT 56 38 45 23 / 90 90 100 0
BPT 54 32 40 21 / 90 100 90 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ027>032.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR LAZ033-044-045-141>143-241>243.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR TXZ515-516-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30
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