651
FXUS64 KLCH 111109
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
609 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY WEATHER AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
-SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN THIS MORNING BRINGING BACK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY LATE IN THE DAY.
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR BRIEFLY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES AND OFFER ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WX MAP CURRENTLY FEATURES A MODEST 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE MID LEVELS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING ACROSS THE
LA / TX COASTS. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY
THE MOST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE YOU WILL FEEL WILL BE THE RELATIVE
AMOUNT IN THE AIR (RH) AS OPPOSED TO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. THUS WHILE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE TODAY AND MONDAY THE FORECAST
WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THAT SAID, IN THE SHORT TERM, WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES
BEGIN TO OCCUR ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND INCREASES CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE FALL SEASON, THE POLAR JET, ALSO
KNOWN AS THE NORTHERN JET, IS SHOWING MORE RESPONSE IN THE FORECAST
WITH AMPLIFIED WAVES STARTING TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY. LOCALLY, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO WANE, BUT THIS INCOMING
SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT POOL OF COOL
CONTINENTAL AIR TO INTRUDE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THERE
IS STILL QUITE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELING AND
VERY LARGE SPREAD OF ENSEMBLES WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OCCURS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE DRY, THERE IS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY THE FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE FRIDAY AND OFFERING SOME REAL FALL WEATHER. IN THE FORECAST
YOU'LL SEE HIGHS NEAR 80F AND LOWS IN THE 50S OR LOWER 60S FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS FORECAST PATTERN
TO MODERATE A LITTLE WARMER, BUT THE SIGNAL OF REAL FALL COLD FRONT
IS GROWING. THE ONLY ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST IS THE LACK OF RAIN
MEANINGFUL, WETTING RAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND THE
DEVELOPING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AHEAD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LCH THROUGH THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BEFORE SUNRISE BURNS OFF ANY LINGERING FOG.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES ALONG WITH LIGHT
MAINLY SOUTH WINDS.
17
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL VEER WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST WHILE KEEPING
SPEEDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO RETURN BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEFORE THE PATTERN DRIES AGAIN
DURING THE MIDWEEK ONWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY INCREASING MOISTURE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY WEEK KEEPING MOISTURE LEVELS HIGHER
THAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL CHANCES
RETURN BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THESE WILL BE VERY
CONDITIONAL. THE FORECAST DOES NOT OFFER A PROMISE OF ANY MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...17
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