547
FXUS64 KLCH 250507
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR VERMILION, LAFAYETTE, ST.
MARTIN, IBERIA, AND ST. MARY PARISHES UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
(MEMORIAL DAY).
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE VERY WET PATTERN
CONTINUES.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED IN TEXAS ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ROTATE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS MAINTAIN THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES. THESE PWAT VALUES ARE
AT OR NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUNDINGS THAT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE WARM
RAIN PROCESS, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. CAMS ARE NOW
TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR MUCH OF THE REGION REGARDING RAIN ON
MEMORIAL DAY, BUT THEY STILL INDICATE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR ACADIANA, AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4), FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ON THURSDAY
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4). DUE TO PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL, SOIL MOISTURE WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS MORE RUNOFF IS
EXPECTED. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, POPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50%, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN.
PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE, RESULTING IN HIGH HUMIDITY AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. OVERCAST SKIES WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
OVERNIGHT, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG, AS DEW POINTS
WILL REACH SATURATION LEVELS AROUND 10Z. AFTER SUNRISE, FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT, BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE LATEST CAMS SHOW MOST CONVECTION REMAINING OFFSHORE, BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME IMPACTS IN ACADIANA; PROB30 REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON. NEAR CONVECTION, CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO
MVFR/IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, LEADING TO A
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE, AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH WAVES LESS THAN 3 FEET.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. NEAR STORMS WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AND GUSTY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, LEADING TO SATURATED SOILS AND FUELS. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 60% AND 70% THIS WEEK, WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AT 100%. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-152>154-
252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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