549
FXUS64 KLCH 251735
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY THIS EVENING BRINGING DRIER
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS TO
THE SOUTH TX COAST, WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM NE TO SW. AREA RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONGOING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, WHILE BEHIND
THE FRONT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED. THIS BOUNDARY,
ALONG WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION, WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNSET TONIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY FILTER SOUTH IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT TODAY/TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM W/NW TO DUE
N AND TROUGHING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL HAVE ARRIVED
HOWEVER, EVEN MORE COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHILE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON AMID SUNNY SKIES. IT'S SHAPING UP TO
BE A VERY NICE HOLIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/GATHERINGS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
FRIDAY BRINGS MORE DRY AND COOL WEATHER TO END THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS TO SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WHILE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE IN THE PLAINS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETURN OVERNIGHT FRI
INTO SAT, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SE TO S. BY SAT EVENING/NIGHT PWATS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, JUST IN
TIME FOR A WARM FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL OF COURSE BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, FIRST ACROSS SE TX BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING EAST FROM THERE THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE ARK-
LA-TEX.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BOTH MON AND TUES,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. NBM
KEEPS WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE FORECAST SUN EVENING THROUGH TUES
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THAT WE
WILL ACTUALLY DRY OUT POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THAT TREND CONTINUES
NBM SHOULD COME INTO AGREEMENT SOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR ARA WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
A LOW CLOUD DECK BEHIND THIS FRONT IS CURRENT AFFECTING AEX BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW, CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES POST-SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW THIS AFTERNOON AND N TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE A COLD FRONT. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW NORTH WINDS BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR ALL GULF
WATERS. WINDS RELAX THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN BY
EARLY FRIDAY, WHEN ANOTHER SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A DRY AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL US.
MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30 TO MID 40S TOMORROW AND
INTO THE UPPER 20 TO MID 30S BOTH THURS AND FRI. IN ADDITION,
BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO QUICKLY RETURN BY LATE FRI/SAT WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 50 64 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 54 69 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 54 69 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 53 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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