493  
FXUS64 KLCH 120447  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022  
   
AVIATION
 
 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS CONTINUE ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE  
THIS EVE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR  
STORMS TO REDEVELOP DRG THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HOURS. SOME  
LCTNS TAF SITES TO BECM MVFR/IFR DUE TO CEILINGS... VSBY... WINDS  
VRB15G25KT NEAR AND WITHIN STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 945 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022/  
 
UPDATE...  
ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED DOWN ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE SABINE  
CHANNEL WITH A FEW IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND WESTERN CAMERON  
PARISH. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS  
WILL EXIST IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE  
DOWN ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF BR ARCS SE TX AND SRN LA.  
OTHERWISE... WE ARE IN A PERSISTENT WET PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THE SATURDAY BEFORE POPS START BACKING OFF.  
 
FOR THOSE THAT ARE WONDERING WHEN TEMPS WILL DROP AFTER THE SUMMER  
SOLSTICE. WELL THAT HAPPEN TODAY FOR AEX WERE 30 YEAR MRNG TEMPS  
DROP FM 73 TO 72 DEGREES. LAKE CHARLES WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW MRNG WITH  
30 CLIMO MRNG TEMPS DROP FM 76 DEGREES DOWN TO 75 DEGREES. BEAUMONT  
TEXAS WILL SEE THEIR AFTN MAX TEMP DROP FM 94 DOWN TO 93 DEGREES  
ON THE 14TH. LFT WILL SEE THEIR AFTN TEMPS DROP FM 93 TO 92 ON THE  
18TH. I KNOW IT IS NOT MUCH AND BY THE END OF THE MONTH WE WILL  
SEE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO DROP BUT EVERYTHING HAS TO START SOMEWHERE.  
ON TO FALL...  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022/  
 
AVIATION...  
PRECIP IS ON THE WANE THIS EVE AS STORMS MOVE INTO AREAS THAT HAVE  
BEEN OVER WORKED TODAY. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS THRU  
SR ALONG WITH SOME LOW CEILINGS AND BR AFTR MIDNIGHT AND THRU  
SUNRISE. TMRW WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY W/ STORMS DEVELOPING  
MAINLY DRG THE AFTN HRS ENDING BY THE EARLY EVE HRS.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022/  
 
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...  
 
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE EXTENDING FROM  
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE LOWER  
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. A VERY MOIST  
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS, AND VERY LITTLE INHIBITION, HAS ALLOWED  
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA WHERE THE DEEPER  
MOISTURE IS AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGH RAINFALL  
RATES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING AND CLOUD  
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS UNTIL ACTIVITY  
DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND AN  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL STALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST  
AREA IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LITTLE INHIBITION  
ALOFT AND THEREFORE, ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES, WITH 2.25  
PLUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE, HIGH  
RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A  
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL  
1 OUT OF 4) POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
OUTLINED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWN POURS  
WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA  
STREET FLOODING.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END  
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO TEXAS. SOME DRIER AIR  
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER FOR  
SATURDAY, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE FOR ESPECIALLY THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING DECENT RAIN CHANCES  
FROM AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
RUA  
 
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...  
 
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION  
ON SUNDAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TOWARD THE NW GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRIER AIRMASS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH PWATS  
FALLING FROM NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW 2 INCHES EARLY SUNDAY TO ROUGHLY  
1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DIURNALLY FORCED SCATTERED  
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE  
LOWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND BACK UP INTO THE 90S EACH  
AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM ~90/LOWER 90S ACROSS ACADIANA WHERE SHOWER  
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX.  
 
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN  
WILL RESUME WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AS RIDGING ALOFT  
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING OVER  
THE CENTRAL CONUS, CARVING A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.  
THIS WILL ALSO SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE AREA BY THURSDAY.  
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE 2  
INCHES BY THURSDAY AND, COMBINED WITH LIMITED CAPPING AND INCREASED  
INSTABILITY, WILL BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO  
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS  
WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS LA TO THE LOWER 90S  
IN SE TX.  
 
24  
 
MARINE...  
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL  
STALL WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE.  
THEREFORE, MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL  
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE  
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO  
MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE  
IN THE COASTAL WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY REDUCING  
VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR WITH  
THE STORMS.  
 
RUA  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 74 91 74 93 / 30 50 20 40  
LCH 72 88 73 88 / 50 80 30 80  
LFT 74 87 74 89 / 40 80 20 80  
BPT 74 90 74 90 / 50 80 50 80  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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