335
FXUS64 KLCH 231138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY MAY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY INLAND AREAS. DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
(PRIMARILY CENLA) UNDER WEAKNESS STILL IN PLACE OVERHEAD.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SHOWERS HAVE COME TO A CLOSE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
SAVE FOR A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OUT IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
EXPECTING ANOTHER SLIM SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS TO BE SOMEWHAT EXPECTED WITHIN RELATIVE
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND WITH MOIST, MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITATION OF CONVECTION AS
THE TX EML CONTINUES FLOWING IN AT THE THE 850 TO 700 LAYER. WHERE
THERE ARE SHOWERS/STORMS, A QUICK DOWNPOUR CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
PWATS MIXED TO THE 1.30 TO 1.40 INCHES RANGE ARE AT/AROUND THE
75TH CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SO DOWNPOURS WOULD LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
EFFICIENT. THANKFULLY SFC WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE (BELOW
THAT PESKY, LIMITING 850 TO 700 LAYER) WOULD KEEP CONVECTION
MOVING. THIS GIVES CONFIDENCE THAT THERE SHOULDN'T BE FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
A DISTURBANCE THEN MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY WHICH MAY
BRING ABOUT SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP NEAR THE COASTLINE WHICH IS GOING
TO HELP DEFLECT WHAT APPEARS TO BE A QLCS SET TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH LA OR SOUTH AR LATER IN THE DAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY STILL
MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT DEVELOPING ORGANICALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES,
FURTHER FROM THE COASTLINE RIDGING. WHERE THAT WEAKNESS CORRIDOR
SETS UP IN CENLA, SOME CONVECTION EXTENDING AWAY FROM THE MAIN
STORM CLUSTER MAY MAKE A RUN AT MOVING INTO CENLA. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS A LARGE-SCALE BOUNDARY
FINALLY IS USHERED THROUGH THE REGION.
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 WILL KEEP
THAT DRY, WARM LAYER PRESENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL WHICH
WOULD ALSO HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. WHERE THERE ARE SHOWERS OR STORMS, THERE IS AT LEAST
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR PWATS, SO
PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS THAT HIT OUR
FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE RAINFALL RECEIVED AS OF LATE, THE
DROUGHT IS NOT OVER AND ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION WOULD BE GLADLY
ACCEPTED.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 23/15Z.
A MOIST AIR MASS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH ALSO THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE BY SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION. AS
WEAKNESS WILL STILL BE SITUATED OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY AM,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS NEAR THE COASTLINE BRINGING MOST RAIN CHANCES FOR
COASTAL WATERS TO NEARLY ZERO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE INLAND AND DAILY RH MINIMUMS
IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.
AS WEAKNESS WILL STILL BE SITUATED OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY AM,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
RELEGATED TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY AS SOME SURFACE RIDGING
DEVELOPS NEAR THE COASTLINE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...07
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