059
FXUS64 KLCH 281721
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TROUGHING
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP. ANY SHOWERS THAT MANAGE TO GET
GOING WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY FURTHER
LIMITING BOTH CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL, IN TURN, PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FORTUNATELY, SOME OF THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS IS EXPECTED KEEP THE AREA BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA DESPITE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING AN INVERTED
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CREATING A SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL SLOWLY MEANDER WEST ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OFFERING NOTABLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER SOME MODEST RELIEF FOR THE ONGOING
DROUGHT, IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTING EVENT.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER
CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW, SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z WITH ANY
DEVELOPMENT DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS FROM 50-60 MILES IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, AN INVERTED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PROVIDING ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AWAY FROM STORMS,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES CLIMBING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING MINRH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 35 TO 45%
RANGE ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX/CENLA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. RH'S WILL INCREASE AGAIN AREA-WIDE MONDAY WITH MINRH
VALUES BACK IN THE 50 TO 60% RANGE AREAWIDE. THE ENTIRE REGION
REMAINS IN A MODERATE DROUGHT WITH KBDI VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO
760.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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