254
FXUS64 KLCH 261747
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
MAX HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 110F.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE (40-80%) AREA WIDE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED (30-50%) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A 500 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE BORDER OF ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND IS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THIS RIDGE
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SKYROCKET TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BETTER, BUT NOT BY MUCH, AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S AND COULD TIP OVER THE CENTURY MARK FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
THIS HEAT, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, WILL CAUSE THE HEAT
INDEX TO BE CLOSE TO 110F. AN AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO KNOCK HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES, SO A
HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS UNLIKELY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. MAKE SURE TO TAKE HEAT PRECAUTIONS BY
STAYING HYDRATED AND TAKING BREAKS FROM THE HEAT.
WITH THE RIDGE LOCATED TO OUR WEST, WE ARE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT; AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH, THEY BRING
INSTABILITY TO OUR REGION. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
ARKANSAS AND TRAVEL SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS SHOW A ROBUST
ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG AND
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AS IS TYPICAL FOR OUR SUMMERTIME
EVENTS, BULK AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE LOW, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
BELOW 20 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS EVENTS, DCAPE VALUES WILL BE
HIGH, AROUND 900 J/KG. DOWNDRAFTS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD
PROPAGATE FAR ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THE MCS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. TIMING FOR THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT, FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL EARLY MORNING. THE SPC HAS PLACED
OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO
A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES, NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL LEAD TO LESS HEAT AND MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. OVERNIGHT, AN MCS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM ARKANSAS AND WILL
START TO IMPACT THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. NEAR CONVECTION,
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WITH CHAOTIC AND GUSTY WINDS,
LOW CEILINGS, AND VISIBILITY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, CONDITIONS WILL
BE BORDERLINE MVFR WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST. NEAR THESE STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY WORSEN
WITH LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND WAVES.
BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH.
WAVES WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, BELOW 3 FEET FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS
TO WEAKEN. WE WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MINRH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 50%
WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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