891
FXUS64 KLCH 271735
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END AFTER SUNSET.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DESPITE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST
MONTH OR SO, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE STREET FLOODING ON SECONDARY ROADS.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AT
MOST AS WATER WILL QUICKLY DRAIN OFF INTO VERY DRY RUNOFF AREAS.
THE COMBINATION OF STORMS AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE MORNING.
STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AS INTERMITTENT PEAKS OF SUNSHINE QUICKLY WARM THE SURFACE.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH MAY
HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL WITH THE BOUNDARY PROVIDING
MESOSCALE SUPPORT BEYOND THE TRADITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING. GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF POPS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON STORMS EACH DAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION WILL RETURN TO THE ONGOING DRY PATTERN.
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE HEADING THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTS ONE OR MORE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVES MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WHETHER
THESE WAVES OR THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE PATTERN
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY DAILY SCATTERED (30-
50%) POPS, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE
COAST. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER 01Z ALTHOUGH A FEW COULD
LINGER AS LATE AS 04Z. AWAY FROM STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER FRIDAY, BUT A DAILY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND ONSHORE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
MUCH LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES CLIMBING AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. THE
ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN A MODERATE DROUGHT WITH KBDI VALUES RANGING
FROM 500 TO 760. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST PARISHES AND
COUNTIES ACROSS THE REGION. MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 55
TO 65 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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