844
FXUS64 KLCH 062335
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 70S CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY THURSDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO SATURDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS, ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. NO HARD
FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO LET GO OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT THIS CLOUD BANK TO HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WARM,
GULF MOISTURE STREAMS IN OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND GUSTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TODAY AS MIXING TAKES ADVANTAGE OF
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROF AND JET MAX TO THE
NORTH AND HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
WITH FURTHER MOISTURE ENTRENCHED TO THE REGION, SO INCREASES THE
DENSE FOG RISK TONIGHT. AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE PULSE IS SET TO QUICKLY EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, WITH AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SET TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX IN RESPONSE. FEW LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT FOR THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR STORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THEREIN.
VERY WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN WINTER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
PERSIST WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND
BACKING ON SURFACE WINDS, WHICH WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEEDED TO SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, SCATTERED
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL AND A LINE CAN DEVELOP AND MARCH EAST
AROUND AND AFTER SUNDOWN.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE IN THAT AFTERNOON,
DISCRETE PERIOD. AFTER THE LINE FORMS, CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF THE LA/TX
STATE LINE. THOSE TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MORE OF THE WIND THREAT
WITH THE LINE'S FORMATION.
THEREAFTER, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY TO THE END OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. NOT
ANTICIPATING A BIG FREEZE AT THIS TIME, BUT SEASONABLE HIGHS WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS! (YAY)
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CEILINGS OVERHEAD SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL IN AND BECOMING MVFR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION, FOG WILL
START TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME, DROPPING VIS TO
MVFR/IFR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
FURTHER AS CEILINGS BECOME IFR TO LIFR AND VIS FALLS BELOW 1SM.
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH ALL SITES GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE
14-18Z TIME FRAME, BECOMING VFR THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 56 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 30
LCH 61 77 63 77 / 0 0 0 30
LFT 62 78 62 78 / 0 0 0 30
BPT 61 78 63 77 / 0 0 0 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-
152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17
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