724
FXUS64 KLCH 110005
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY
- A VERY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTH LOUISIANA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THRU MIDNIGHT WHEN IT EXITS EAST OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA.
- DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK. MAKE SURE TO HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE
EMERGENCY ALERTS OVERNIGHT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE
WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A BREEZY AFTERNOON HAS UNFOLDED ACROSS THE REGION AS WE ALL FEEL
THE NEARING EFFECTS OF TOMORROW'S WEATHER SYSTEM. AT THIS HOUR,
RAP 500 ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH FASHION; INDICATING IT'S STARTED TO OPEN INTO
A WAVE TO BE PICKED UP IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TONIGHT, THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FULLY OPEN INTO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PULSE AS IT DRAGS A
POTENT SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN NORTHEAST
GULF RIDGE AND DEEPENING LOW IN EAST TEXAS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING
DAYTIME HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS, THIS INCREASING FLOW WILL SEND A RENEWED WARM
SECTOR SURGING NORTH, ERODING THE DRY EML AND HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE CONDITIONS. THIS SUBSIDENT LAYER WILL LIKELY STAUNCH
MOST SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE
TEXAS / LOUISIANA STATE LINE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ONLY INCREASE AS IT DOES SO, FUNNELING A SECONDARY WARM
SECTOR OVER SOUTHWEST LA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
REINFORCED ENERGY SOURCE COMBINED WITH LOCALLY INDUCED AND
RAPIDLY INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ADVECTING
OVERHEAD MAY RESULT IN AN ALMOST EXPLOSIVE AMOUNT OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LOW'S PASSAGE. A BROAD
AREA OF INCREASING BULK SHEAR SPREADS OUT ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME WHICH COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES BEFORE
THE MAIN LINE RAKES ACROSS. IF THE LINE CONGEALS INTO BOWING
SEGMENTS, FURTHER WIND DAMAGE AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
THE EARLIEST CELLS MAY START TO DEVELOP IS 2 PM IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COUNTIES. DEVELOPMENT WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER
THE FOLLOWING HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR 2 AM.
TO SUMMARIZE: A VERY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS ALL OF LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THRU MIDNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A LINE OF
CONGEALED STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO STRONG WIND SEGMENTS WITH
EMBEDDED TORNADOES AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AFTER DARK.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER ALERTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE OVERNIGHT HOURS! THIS IS A SITUATION TO TAKE VERY
SERIOUSLY AS WE DO NOT SEE THESE SETUPS VERY FREQUENTLY IN THE
DEEP SOUTH.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SCT CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BEGIN TO THICKEN THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND FORM AREAS OF OVC MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. THESE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TWILIGHT HOURS OF THE 11TH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD LIKELY BREAKING TO BKN MVFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY. VCSH LIKELY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LINE
OF CLUSTERED TS FORMING INTO A LINE OF TSRA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
LA TOWARD AFTER SUNSET. WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NW FOLLOWING
DEPARTURE OF STORMS INTO 12TH/AM.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 83 47 63 / 0 80 80 10
LCH 69 80 53 66 / 0 80 70 0
LFT 70 82 54 66 / 0 60 90 10
BPT 69 80 53 69 / 0 80 40 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ430-432-450-452-470-472.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page