049
FXUS64 KLCH 072344
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
KEEP US GENERALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT, A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA TO THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE INSTABILITY, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN, AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT, PWAT VALUES
WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH VALUES ABOVE 1.9 INCHES.
AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD, THE SWIMMING POOL OF MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS BETWEEN 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. THE WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL
CLEAR OUT THE RAIN. COOL, DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE LOW END, WITH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
BKN TO OVC UPPER DECKS TO LINGER DURING THIS QUIET PERIOD. WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITIES
ARE LOW AT THIS MOMENT, SO IT WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED AT THE NEXT CYCLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVER THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTH GULF. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND SLOWLY RETROGRADE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY AND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY STARTING ON TUESDAY. NO HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MARINERS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN HAS HELPED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...87
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page