783
FXUS64 KLCH 121114
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY WEATHER AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR AREAS.
-SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY INTO
TUESDAY.
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR BRIEFLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES WHILE OFFERING ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DRY COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WX MAP CURRENTLY PAINTS A BROAD 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL
EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF,
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH ESTABLISHING AN ONSHORE
REGIME THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AHEAD. NATURALLY,
TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN WILL UNFORTUNATELY TREND IN THE
POSITIVE 6-10F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FALL CLIMATOLOGY. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 90S. LOOKING AT THE
EVOLVING PATTERN, EVEN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOWS SOME WEAKNESS, A
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXERT SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID
LEVELS. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS BEING SHORT OF THE
CRITICAL ANGLE THAT WOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY INFLOW FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ISOLATED TO AT BEST SCATTERED
TUESDAY FAVORING FAR SWLA INTO EAST TEXAS. THESE ARE CONDITIONAL
CHANCES AT BEST SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING A MEANINGFUL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NEEDED TO ALLEVIATE DEVELOPING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES WHILE KEEPING THAT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. NO
RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ONWARD. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THOUGH SURFACE RH MAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED.
SOME NOTABLE CHANGE OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
APPEARS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST BEFORE LIFTING ENE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE NEAR ZERO, THE EXTENT OF THE COLD POOL HAS
INCREASING EVIDENCE IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELING OF
REACHING THE TX / LA GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY. WHILE SOME MODERATION
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN OUR BLENDED APPROACH, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
HIGHS DROPPING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S NEXT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, RESPECTIVELY. EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE ARE THE LOWS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WORTH NOTING, GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE MASS MAY BE VERY BREEZY, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO IRON OUT THOSE DETAILS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A BIT OF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AT THE COASTAL LA SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT REDUCTIONS IN VIS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF SO
OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
MAINLY SE WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMING. MIN RHS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WIDESPREAD DROUGHT RELIEF IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LARGER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND A
DRY COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS MAY ADVECT IN ON GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BY SATURDAY. THERE IS NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE ARRIVAL / PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...17
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