710
FXUS64 KLCH 161132
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD CENTERED OFF TO THE
EAST AROUND THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE GULF
BRINGING IN WARM AND HUMID GULF AIR WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE, ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE NOTED, AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND HELPING TO PROVIDE AN
ATMOSPHERIC CAP OVER THE REGION. ALL THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH NO CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
FOG POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT MAY HELP
A LITTLE BIT, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DOWN TO NEAR OR
BELOW WHAT THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT WAS, THAT WILL HELP IN FOG
FORMATION. ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE IN PATCHES THAN
WIDESPREAD, AND LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM EARLIER
BURNINGS, WILL HAVE THE LOWER VISIBILITY.
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, FOG PROBABILITIES ARE A LITTLE LOWER
AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
THERE IS STILL SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE IN BRINGING PACIFIC
ENERGY ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION BREAKING DOWN. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH TO PUSH A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES BY THURSDAY AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMO AND NEAR THE DAILY MOVING MAX, WITH MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 80 PERCENT. AS THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS ATMOSPHERE POTENTIALLY COULD BE OF A LOW
CAPE HIGH SHEAR ONE. THEREFORE, SOME STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH STILL TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS.
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE FORECAST IS OF A LOW CONFIDENCE AS
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EITHER CLEARING THE
FORECAST AREA LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS OR MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND WITH SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN.
RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
THE STAGNANT PATTERN WE ARE IN HAS, AND WILL CONTINUE, TO ALLOW
FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG. SEVERAL SITES IN THE AREA EXPERIENCING LIFR
VIS AS A RESULT, WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE IN THE MORNING LASTING UNTIL
TONIGHT, WHERE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL RIDGE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE OVER
50 PERCENT. AREAS OF FOG BEING PATCHY DENSE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
LOCATIONS WITH RESIDUAL SMOKE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT AND DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 59 82 59 / 0 10 10 0
LCH 82 63 80 64 / 0 10 10 0
LFT 82 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 84 64 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...87
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