396
FXUS64 KLCH 301856
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
156 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK
AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY FLOW
AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER OUR
CWA AROUND 90TH-95TH PERCENTILE. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS HAS BROUGHT GULF MOISTURE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. GOES SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ACROSS OUR CWA RANGES FROM 0.8 INCHES FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST TX TO 1.3 INCHES FOR COASTAL ACADIANA. AS SUCH, THIS
REGION ALONG AND EAST OF I-49 HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (20-30
PERCENT).
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO DEWPOINTS
EACH NIGHT. NBM GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TX AND COASTAL
SOUTHWEST LA AS MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT, BUT THE
DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE (25 PERCENT FOR
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY IN THESE AREAS). HOWEVER, FOG WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE GREATER
MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN GREATER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE STRENGTH OF
THIS FEATURE, WHICH DIGS MUCH FURTHER INTO THE GULF COAST IN THE
GEFS/GFS THAN IN THE EURO/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE OR DETERMINISTIC RUNS.
REGARDLESS, THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION AT
SOME POINT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
MORE LIKELY TOWARDS CENLA. A LOT OF DETAILS YET TO BE IRONED OUT AT
THIS LEAD TIME, BUT ANYONE INTENDING TO SPEND TIME OUTSIDE FOR
EASTER SUNDAY WILL WANT TO PLAN FOR WET WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EVEN AS A
CUMULUS FIELD STRETCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD PEAKING AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING BELOW 5 KNOTS OVER NIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH MVFR/IFR IMPACTS PERSISTING UNTIL SUNRISE. PERIODS OF LIFR
IMPACTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE
COAST. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FORM IN ACADIANA MAINLY IMPACTING LFT AND ARA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
FEW MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS 5 FT OR LESS. WINDS
MAY CLIMB INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE WEATHER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS DROUGHT CONTINUES, THOUGH MOST
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER RH
THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS THREAT
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION BY MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...14
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