808
FXUS64 KLCH 191148
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
- THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND THERE IS A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A RISK FOR FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND HUMID SIDE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH FOR
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO FORM UNDER THE CAP AND MAKE FOR A MUGGY NIGHT.
DURING TUESDAY, A CAP AROUND 70H IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THAT
WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART WITH JUST SOME HIT
OR MISS TYPE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST QUESTION IN THE FORECAST IS FOR TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JUST
HOW STRONG THIS ACTIVITY GETS AND THE STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL TELL IF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVES ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE
CAMS INDICATE A MCS FORMING THAT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WEAKENING. THEREFORE,
A MARGINAL RISK OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER (MAINLY WINDS) AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL BE OUTLINED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
A SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME BY WEDNESDAY THAT LOOKS
TO LAST THROUGH THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ABOVE CLIMO NORM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN US
INTO THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL STREAM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOIST
AIR MASS WITH DAILY PWAT VALUES OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF 1.79
INCHES AND NEAR THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE OF 2+ INCHES. MEANWHILE, MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 100H-50H WILL BE OVER 80 PERCENT.
WARM CLOUD PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL ALSO BE NOTED AS THE WARM
CLOUD LAYER IS PROJECTED TO BE FROM 11K TO 15K FEET, NOTING AN
ALMOST TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS.
SO, WE DO KNOW THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLOOD RISK. WPC HAS
OUTLINED A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4)
OR AT LEAST A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLOODING FOR EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND EXTENDED WPC HAZARDS KEEP
A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY THROUGH
MAY 27.
WHAT IS OF A LOWER CONFIDENCE IS THE TIMING EACH DAY OF WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND AT ITS HEAVIEST. IT
WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME, BUT THE TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND IF IT COMES DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING, WILL BE THE
STORY OF WHEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST. SO EACH DAY WILL
BE MORE FINE TUNED THE CLOSER IN TIME WE GET TO EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
GULF MOISTURE FILTERING INLAND TODAY WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A DECAYING MASS OF CLUSTERED
STORMS MAY OFFER VCSH TOWARD BPT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. THROUGH LATE
MORNING SE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PICK UP 18 - 25KTS WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST TX. ATMOSPHERE FORECAST TO
DESTABILIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO ISOLATED TS CELLS
CONVERGING TO WIDESPREAD TSRA CLUSTERS THIS EVENING WHICH ARE
EXPECTED SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDNIGHT/20TH.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME BY MORNING WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LIGHT TO MODEST SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PRODUCE SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
EXPECT MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BRINGING IN RICH AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH CHANCES FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...30
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