244
FXUS64 KLCH 051128
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US TONIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY, WHILE ALOFT, BROAD ZONAL FLOW IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALLOWING ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW TO
PREVAIL OVERHEAD. MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE RAMPING UP ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO WARM AND DEWPOINTS TO STEADILY INCREASE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S TODAY AND TOMORROW, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S TOMORROW
NIGHT TO THE LOW/MID 60S THURS/FRI NIGHT, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF STEADY
MOISTURE RETURN, A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INLAND MORE TO OUR EAST HOWEVER, THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERALL, THIS SHOULDN'T BE A MAJOR RAIN
MAKER FOR OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL BRING A WARM, CLOUD, AND HUMID DAY
AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, FRIDAY'S INCREASE IN MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SATURDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE
WARM AND HUMID DAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN REACHING INTO THE MID 80S,
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND FALL WEATHER RETURNS. WITH ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE, LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTEAD, WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT AND QUICKLY ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK, COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES WITH MON MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUES MORNING THEN
BRINGS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE'VE SEEN SINCE EARLY THIS YEAR,
WITH PARTS OF CENLA POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE 30-32 DEGREE RANGE,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER, A SLOW
WARMING TREND COMMENCES AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SLOWLY BRING IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
LOWERED CIGS ON MOISTURE RETURNING OFF OF THE GULF. EXPECT THIS
CLOUD DECK AND ANY LOWERED VIS TO WASH OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE S TO SSE AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND S TO
SSW FOR INLAND AREAS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING AROUND THE
REGION.
WINDS WILL FALL TO CALM AFTER SUNDOWN AND WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
MOVING IN DURING THE DAY, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO DENSE
FOG AT TERMINALS THURSDAY MORNING.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 78 51 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 78 57 78 65 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 77 56 79 63 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 80 58 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11
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