799
FXUS64 KLCH 211132
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS EARLY MORNING IS BUILDING SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
TO THE EAST. THIS IS HELPING TO BRING A RATHER CHILLY AND DRY AIR
MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FROST IN THAT
AREA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HANG
AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
THEREFORE, IT WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY TODAY DESPITE THE FULL
SUNSHINE AND THEN COLD TONIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY DOWN TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE ON SUNDAY, SOUTH WINDS OFF
THE GULF WILL RESUME AND THIS WILL BRING A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
RUA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LOOKING LIKE A RATHER MILD TO WARM HOLIDAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE
WEATHER ALSO LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE
EAST WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OFF THE GULF AND A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO
EAST UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING ENERGY OUT OF THE EAST PAC AND
MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET.
THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE ON CHRISTMAS
EVE AND MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH
PWAT VALUES AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE LEVEL OF 1.10 INCHES
INCREASING TO ABOUT THE 90TH PERCENTILE LEVEL OF 1.35 INCHES, WITH
THE MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING FROM AROUND 60
PERCENT TO AROUND 80 PERCENT.
AT FIRST, MODERATE TO STRONG LIFT WILL WORK WITH THE MOISTURE TO
GET WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, GOOD LIFT, AND INSTABILITY, SOME
HIGH RAINFALL RATES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA ON
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT, BEFORE LIFT AND ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO ACADIANA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. DUE TO THIS, WPC HAS
OUTLINED THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BASICALLY
NORTHWEST OF A LEESVILLE TO LAKE CHARLES LINE, IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE BEYOND CHRISTMAS, HOWEVER SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH THE FEATURES IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHEN THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD.
RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGING DOWN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS, SO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS MORNING, AND THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY
WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS DECREASING.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER ON SUNDAY WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE BY MONDAY. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 51 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 56 33 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 54 34 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 58 37 63 48 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ472-475.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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