658
FXUS64 KLCH 260311
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1011 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020
DISCUSSION
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM FORECAST, MAINLY TO HOURLY SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT GREATER EROSION OF STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX
AND CENTRAL LA THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS REDEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH VSBYS STARTING TO
DECLINE AT A FEW OBSERVING SITES ALREADY. PATCHY FOG WAS ALREADY
REFLECTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS, AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.
REMAINING ELEMENTS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK.
13
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020/
AVIATION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA INCLUDING OVER THE TERMINALS OF LFT, ARA, LCH AND BPT.
OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INCLUDING OVER AEX. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER REMAINING AOB 3K FT. EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTING BR LATER
TONIGHT.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020/
DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS BROKEN THE INVERSION ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE REMAINED
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS PINGING ON SOME
OF THIS STRATUS SINKING TO THE SURFACE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SO
FELT IT PRUDENT TO ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA,
BUT DIDN'T INCLUDE IT ACROSS AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS DECK IS
ERODING.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ALLOWING A MORE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH COULD PROMOTE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE
850 MB IS UNLIKELY TO ALLOW FOR ANYTHING STRONGER. THIS TROF WILL
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A
SOUTHWARD DIGGING TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT WILL PUSH A
SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO INITIALIZE A
SQUALL LINE ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRISK CAA WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A REINFORCING, DRY FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES VERY PLEASANT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JONES
MARINE...
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 83 65 85 / 0 10 0 0
LCH 66 83 68 85 / 0 20 0 10
LFT 66 84 68 85 / 0 20 0 10
BPT 68 82 68 85 / 10 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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