557
FXUS64 KLCH 082339
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WIND ADVISORY WILL END AT 6 PM, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR FRI
AM.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE
WARNINGS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU MONDAY. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WILD FIRE
CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR UNTIL 6 PM DUE
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. OBSERVATIONS ALONG THIS SWATH OF LAND
HAVE VARIED IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO FALL OFF QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. UNTIL THEN, TAKE CARE WHEN DRIVING OVER BRIDGES AND NEAR
OUTDOOR HOLIDAY DECORATIONS AS THEY CAN BE BLOWN INTO THE STREET.
OUTSIDE THE STRONG WINDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN SLUGS OF
GULF MOISTURE BEING DRIVEN INLAND. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LIGHT
SHOWER COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (MORE BELOW). WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO FRI AM, LIMITING MOST CONCERNS FOR
FOG. HOWEVER, MARINE DENSE FOG MAY BE PUSHED INLAND, BRINGING
AREAS OF DENSE FOG INTO EXTREME COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
NOW, THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR... THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SEVERE/FLOODING RISK ON FRIDAY.
TLDR;
VERY LIMITED FLOOD RISK. WHERE THERE IS RAINFALL, IT SHOULD BE
HEAVY DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE. RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOVEMENT
TO SPREAD TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF LOWER ACADIANA
RATHER THAN DUMP IT ALL IN ONE SPOT. ISOLATED FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE MORNING, THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FROM OVERNIGHT WILL BREAK UP. A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF DISCRETE CELLS
AFTER NOON TIME WITH WIND AND TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS
MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND SUNDOWN AS
SHEAR LIFTS OUT, CELLS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN LINE THAT
SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST 10ISH PM THRU SUNRISE SATURDAY. STRONG
WINDS AND EMBEDDED ROTATING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE.
...
FRIDAY MORNING OPENS WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ORIENTED FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS SOMEWHERE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CWA. THIS IS A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRESSURE
FIELD FROM AMPLIFYING CENUS TROF AND NORTHEAST GULF RIDGE.
RAINFALL WILL "TRAIN" WHEREVER THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP. GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT WHETHER THE BEST PWAT VALUES WILL LINE UP WITH THIS RAINFALL
FEATURE, BUT EVEN LOW FCST PWAT VALUES SIT ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. IT GOES TO REASON THAT MOISTURE WILL WEDGE UP AGAINST
THE RIDGE, SO LEANING HIGHER WOULD INDICATE VERY EFFICIENT WARM
RAINFALL PROCESSES COULD TAKE PLACE AND AREAS BENEATH ANY BANDING
MAY SEE HIGH RAIN RATES FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT WASHES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THANKFULLY, THE BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER
AROUND INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEARING TROF WEARS DOWN THE RIDGE,
MEANING THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULDN'T SIT OVER ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR VERY LONG. THIS WILL ALLOW WATER TO RUNOFF BETWEEN WAVES OF
PRECIP. CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THERE IS
A RATHER LIMITED CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. FROM NOW UNTIL
SATURDAY, AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I49 COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THE TOTALS DIMINISH TO THE WEST WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF 1.00 INCH.
AS FOR THE SEVERE RISK... THE NOCTURNAL JET AND BROAD UPSCALE LIFT
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FROM MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE OVERNIGHT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE PULSE EJECTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. THE NEXT AMPLIFYING
TROF MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE FALLING HEIGHTS WILL BE WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE GULF RIDGE THE
GRADIENT DRIVEN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MIX THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET MAX CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASE IN
SPEED SHEAR WILL ACT TO FURTHER RAMP UP SFC MOISTURE FLUX AND ADD
LIFT TO THE REGION. THUS, A MARKED INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AFTER NOONTIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH LOUISIANA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN OUT
DURING THE MORNING AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AS BULK SHEAR
INCREASES AFTER NOON TIME. CELLS ALREADY INLAND AND THOSE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE TO THE LA COASTLINE WILL SEE A
PERIOD WHERE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS DISCRETE STRUCTURES WITH A WIND
AND TORNADO RISK FROM AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF
BACKED SURFACE FLOW, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STORMS MIXING DOWN
STRONG WIND GUSTS RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD TORNADOES. STORM
CLUSTERING MAY FORCE AREAS OF LOWER PRESSURE TO FORM, CREATING
LOCALIZED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING THE TORNADO THREAT.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY FOR. THESE TYPE OF
SPEED SHEAR, HIGH CAPE EVENTS CAN HAVE SNEAKY SPINUP TORNADOES. SO
WHILE THE MAIN RISK WILL BE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS, BE MINDFUL
THAT TORNADOES AREN'T OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
TROF AXIS WILL BE LIFTING OUT BY SUNDOWN WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
BECOMING THE DOMINANT MECHANISM. ANY CELLS WILL CONGEAL INTO A
BROKEN LINE WITH WANING INTENSITY (STABILIZING ATMOS) THAT WILL BE
SWEPT EAST BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE RISK THIS FAR
SOUTH: STORMS EATING UP INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY, SHEAR
DOESN'T MANIFEST, SPEED SHEAR CAUSING NEGATIVE STORM INTERACTIONS,
ETC. ALSO THINGS TO WATCH FOR, BUT PREPARING FOR SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, IS HOW THIS SHOULD BE APPROACHED.
MUCH COLDER, DRIER AIR THEN USHERS THROUGH THE REGION ON VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE LONGTERM AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL IN CONTROL. TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE 60S BY
MIDWEEK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD
HELPING TO DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE 50S TO END THE WORK WEEK.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LOW CIGS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE CONDITIONS NEAR
SHOWERS COULD DROP TO LIFR. ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT BUT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR/IFR FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AS WINDS DO
DROP AFTER SUNDOWN AND AS INCREASINGLY WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE
COOL SHELF WATERS, AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE WINDS
HAVE PULLED NORTHWARD ANOTHER SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE. WITHIN THIS
HUMID AIRMASS, SCATTERED, VERY WEAK SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP STARTING SATURDAY AT SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
WEATHER SYSTEM NOW LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE WINDS
HAVE PULLED NORTHWARD ANOTHER SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE. WITHIN THIS
HUMID AIRMASS, SCATTERED, VERY WEAK SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP STARTING SATURDAY AT SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO THE 20
AND 30% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 77 54 64 / 50 80 90 20
LCH 66 77 58 66 / 50 70 90 30
LFT 68 78 62 69 / 80 80 90 50
BPT 66 79 55 66 / 30 60 80 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...14
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