282
FXUS64 KLCH 260601
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS, INTO SATURDAY.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND AROUND FLORIDA
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW OFF
THE GULF. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDING DRY
AIR ALOFT AND A CAP IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS WILL MEAN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST, MAY NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGHS.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND THE DEW
POINT AIR MOVING OVER IT VERY NEAR THESE WATER TEMPERATURES, SO SEA
FOG PRODUCTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE SURFACE THAT WILL AGAIN
ALLOW AIR TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR OR BELOW THE LOW TO MID 60S,
MAKING FOR A SUPER-STATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS, AS WELL AS THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS, AND
THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AS WELL AS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY FOR LAND AREAS AND NOON FOR THE MARINE LOCATIONS.
GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH WITH THE LOW VISIBILITIES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PROGS SHOWING A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LESS THAN 1/4 OF MILE MAKING IT TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR
WITH GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT HANGING AROUND THE COAST AND INTO THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE A MORE SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT AND STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE OF A LOW CLOUD SCENARIO.
DURING SUNDAY, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN. MEANWHILE, ENERGY MOVING ACROSS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MERGE WITH A POLAR LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO EAST AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF
A NORTHWEST FLOW AND HELP PUSH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
GOOD MOISTURE IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWAT INCREASES TO OVER
1.35 INCHES AND OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH 100H-50H MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 60 PERCENT. A BAND OF DECENT LIFT AND FORCING
NOTED RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FORM WITH
THE FRONT. INSTABILITY OVERALL LOOKS WEAK, SO MAINLY JUST SHOWERS
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS.
WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. A NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING CHILLY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AS FORECAST GOES FROM NEAR RECORD HIGHS TO A
LIGHT FREEZE BOTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY NEW YEAR'S WITH
A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BRINGING IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS, TO GO ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING ARE COMBINING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AT KLCH/KBPT/KARA AND IS
EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER 26/06Z. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL ROUGHLY 26/15Z-16Z. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BY 26/18Z WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LOW SEAS. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FORM
EACH NIGHT AND LAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS PROBABLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING IN AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 63 77 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 62 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 63 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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