658  
FXUS64 KLCH 260311  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1011 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM FORECAST, MAINLY TO HOURLY SKY  
GRIDS TO REFLECT GREATER EROSION OF STRATUS ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX  
AND CENTRAL LA THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT  
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS REDEVELOPING IN  
THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH VSBYS STARTING TO  
DECLINE AT A FEW OBSERVING SITES ALREADY. PATCHY FOG WAS ALREADY  
REFLECTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS, AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.  
REMAINING ELEMENTS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020/  
 
AVIATION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF  
THE AREA INCLUDING OVER THE TERMINALS OF LFT, ARA, LCH AND BPT.  
OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA  
INCLUDING OVER AEX. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH  
ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER REMAINING AOB 3K FT. EXCEPTION TO THIS  
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTING BR LATER  
TONIGHT.  
 
23  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS BROKEN THE INVERSION ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
LOUISIANA TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT  
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE REMAINED  
ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN  
THIS WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS PINGING ON SOME  
OF THIS STRATUS SINKING TO THE SURFACE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SO  
FELT IT PRUDENT TO ADD PATCHY FOG WORDING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA,  
BUT DIDN'T INCLUDE IT ACROSS AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS DECK IS  
ERODING.  
 
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE  
EAST INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ALLOWING A MORE PREDOMINANTLY  
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO  
SIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH COULD PROMOTE A COUPLE OF  
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE  
850 MB IS UNLIKELY TO ALLOW FOR ANYTHING STRONGER. THIS TROF WILL  
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A  
SOUTHWARD DIGGING TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT WILL PUSH A  
SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THERE  
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO INITIALIZE A  
SQUALL LINE ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRISK CAA WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE  
SEASON THUS FAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A REINFORCING, DRY FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH  
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHERLY  
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES VERY PLEASANT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
JONES  
 
MARINE...  
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A  
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE  
MONDAY RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND  
ELEVATED SEAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 63 83 65 85 / 0 10 0 0  
LCH 66 83 68 85 / 0 20 0 10  
LFT 66 84 68 85 / 0 20 0 10  
BPT 68 82 68 85 / 10 10 0 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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