734
FXUS64 KLCH 172336
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
WINDS PUSHING WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED
RISK OF WILDFIRE INITIATION AND SPREAD TODAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS,
LINGERING OVERRUNNING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD
FRONT IS PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE'VE RECEIVED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A
RAIN/SLEET MIX WITHIN THESE SHOWERS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT PREVENTING SNOW FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER, SNOW
IS MUCH MORE LIKELY IN OTHER RARELY SEEN PARTS OF THE GULF INCLUDING
THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH 10+ MPH WINDS DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO THE LOWER 20S
AREA WIDE. THIS IS JUST ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR AN OFFICIAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT CONSIDER YOURSELF ADVISED THAT IT'S GOING TO
BE COLD. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH
THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE MID 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S WILL FAVOR THE INITIALIZATION AND RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY
AND HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH
LIGHTER SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF.
DEWPOINTS WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 25-35% RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.
JONES
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING UP THE
TEXAS GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THE COASTAL LOW EAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS SHAPING UP TO BE MUCH MORE MILD WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TO END THE
WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING TO REINFORCE THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE MAINLY OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL VARIETY SO CEILINGS
WILL BE VFR. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO OVER 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY 18/06Z. ONLY ISSUE AT THE MOMENT IS SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE FROM MAINLY AGRICULTURAL AND PRESCRIBED
BURNS THAT WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO KLCH AND KAEX UNTIL
ROUGHLY 18/03Z.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF 3-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ABATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE LOW WATER CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING
THE LOW TIDE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE
MOVING UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING OFFSHORE THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THE COASTAL LOW OUT OF THE REGION. THE
COASTAL LOW AND THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK WILL EXIST FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY, BREEZY NORTH WINDS
AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 20-30% RANGE WILL FAVOR THE
INITIALIZATION AND SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY,
BUT THE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN EITHER AN ABNORMALLY DRY OR
MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY. NON PROFESSIONAL OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 26 50 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 31 53 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 29 51 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 30 55 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...07
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