311
FXUS64 KLCH 162332
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
- COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A
WARM, TROPICAL AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RIDGING ALOFT
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF IS KEEPING A CAP ON MOST
PRECIPITATION. RADAR ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DOES SHOW A FEW AREAS
OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A
SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THROUGH
THE GULF COAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WPC HAS MAINTAINED
IT'S MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
REGION. STORMS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE PRETTY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION SO DESPITE THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES,
FORECAST QPF CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENTLY IN THE QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTER INCH RANGE.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING ADVECTING NOTICEABLY COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TURNING
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INITIALIZING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES A CAP IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS AFTER 17/02Z.
THIS WILL ALLOW COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, HOWEVER, EXPECTED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO CREATE
ENOUGH MIXING THAT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS ARE
FAVORED DURING THE OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FOG.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
BREEZE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND A GALE WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
BACK ONSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MAINTAINING A WARM, TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THESE
WILL BE SPORADIC AND SHORT LIVED. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 AM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL
DROP MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL
TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...07
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