713  
FXUS64 KLCH 230303  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1003 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACRS NRN LA. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE  
BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED  
SHOWERS OR STORMS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE AS THE  
OUTFLOW FM EARLIER STORMS PUSHES SOUTHWARD. STILL EXPECT SOME SCTD  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT  
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA, WITH THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE  
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 70S, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.  
 
THE MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST  
RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO  
THE TEMPS, DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO BRING IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS,  
BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN ON TRACK. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN  
SENT.  
 
24  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 
AVIATION...  
COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT  
APPROACHING INLAND SE TX/C LA. FOR THIS, WILL CONTINUE VCTS &  
TEMPO FOR TSRA/MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS FOR AEX THROUGH 04Z.  
AFTER 04Z FOR AEX AND REMAINDER OF TERMINALS, LEFT VCSH. NORTHWEST  
WINDSHIFT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AROUND 09Z FOR AEX, 12Z FOR  
BPT, 13Z FOR LCH, AND 14-15Z FOR LFT/ARA WITH STRONGER WINDS  
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20  
KTS. WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER SC LA, PLACED PROB30 GROUP  
FOR TSRA/MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT LFT/ARA 15-21Z.  
 
DML  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON, FUELED LARGELY BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND A  
LINGERING WEAK TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS, DISSIPATING NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
AND/OR SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE  
APPROACH OF THE MUCH ADVERTISED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CURRENTLY  
EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA JUST ENTERING NW LA.  
 
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH TUE MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL  
OVER THE AREA OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE CONVECTIVE  
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAIN RATES DUE TO THE HIGH  
ATMOSPHERIC MSTR CONTENT, A QUICK SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL  
GENERALLY MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW UP A  
BIT ONCE IT NEARS THE COAST AS WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS. THE  
RESULTANT SHARPENING OF THE FRONT MAY FOCUS STRONGER CONVECTION  
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN FOR A FEW HOURS TUE AFTERNOON,  
WHICH WOULD YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND AT LEAST A  
LOCAL/URBAN FLOOD RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS NONETHELESS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE ON TO THE SOUTH TUE NIGHT, PUSHING OUT OF THE MARINES  
ZONES BY EARLY WED MORNING.  
 
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER DRIER AND  
UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT  
THROUGH THU NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S, WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE  
WED NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX INTO CENTRAL LA. HIGHS WILL TOP  
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SAT, WITH  
WARM AND HUMID AIR ALONG WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SUN AND  
MON.  
 
AS A BRIEF ASIDE, RECENTLY DESIGNATED TD 3 OVER THE NW BAHAMAS IS  
FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF, AND WILL  
HAVE ZERO IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER.  
 
13  
 
MARINE...  
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL  
WATERS TONIGHT AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN  
UNSEASONABLE JULY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE  
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY TUE, ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A  
PERIOD OF MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. SCEC  
HEADLINES OR A SCA MAY BE NEEDED TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WINDS  
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM THE EAST THU  
NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE GULF WATERS,  
TURNING ONSHORE AGAIN FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT RETREATS BACK TO THE  
NORTH.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 73 83 64 86 / 40 40 0 0  
LCH 75 84 69 87 / 50 50 10 0  
LFT 74 83 69 86 / 50 60 20 10  
BPT 75 85 71 87 / 50 40 10 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...24  
 
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