421
FXUS64 KLCH 222339
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION PUMPS MOIST AIR INLAND
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE POSES INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MILD AND OVERCAST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER EROSION
WILL RESTRICT DIURNAL HEATING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AT MOST. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK
INVERSION. A QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS;
OTHERWISE, OVERCAST AND GENERALLY DREARY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
ON FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SAG TOWARD THE
COAST, MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. PERSISTENT
LOW CLOUD COVER AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSOLATION, RESULTING IN MAX TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, COOLER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES, WITH SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
A NOTABLE PATTERN TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SATURDAY;
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THERMAL
PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO DELAY THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR,
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
PWATS WILL ALREADY BE ELEVATED EARLY SATURDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE FURTHER AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. PWATS APPROACHING 1.40 TO 1.65 INCHES (ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA FOR MID JAN..) WILL
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS PLACED NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. A POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SHOULD HIGHER RAINFALL SIGNALS PERSIST.
THERMAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH
VARIOUS NBM SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING ANYWHERE BETWEEN A 50 TO 90
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR MAY EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING, INCREASING THE RISK FOR BLACK ICE AS WET ROADS
FROM RAIN COULD FREEZE.
ON SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA; HOWEVER, NORTHERN ZONES RETAIN A 30 TO
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE DAY. ANY BRIEF WARMING WOULD LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR
MEANINGFUL MELTING UNDER CONTINUED CLOUD COVER, WITH REFREEZING
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE PENDING LATER GUIDANCE. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION,
RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. COMBINED WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT AN EXTREME COLD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION, ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND GRADUAL CLEARING TO DEVELOP. MODEST
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD PROMOTE IMPROVED ICE MELTING POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING MAY SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY ZONAL. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH
SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY PERSIST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LOW CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VIS DUE TO AREAS OF FOG. NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT, FOG WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA, CAUSING VIS TO FALL TO 3-5SM AT
MOST SITES. AFTER MIDNIGHT FOG MAY BECOME A BIT MORE DENSE,
PARTICULARLY AT THE I-10 TERMINALS. OVERCAST CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE PLACE, RANGING FROM LIFR AT BPT TO VFR AT
ARA. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR AND LIFR AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 47 56 36 44 / 0 20 40 90
LCH 54 64 47 57 / 0 20 30 90
LFT 53 66 50 64 / 10 20 20 80
BPT 54 66 49 62 / 0 20 30 90
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-241>243.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-616.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17
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