976
FXUS64 KLCH 072328
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTENSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. RISK DECREASES SUN WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4)
FOR FLOODING RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED MID WEEK WITH COOLER
WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY INCHING TOWARD THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS STRETCHED FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION TO THE GREAT
LAKES. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED IN THROUGH THE
PAST WEEK WHICH WILL FUEL HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY.
ALOFT, A CUT OFF LOW IS NEAR THE BAJA WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE FROM MEXICO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DIURNAL HEATING HAS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZED THE LOCAL AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS DEVELOPING BY NOON. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE MAIN
EVENT ISN'T ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE BROKEN LINE LIMPS DOWN TO THE
EAST TX LAKES CLOSER TO SUNSET. HELICITY LOOKS LOW RULING OUT MUCH
OF A TORNADO THREAT, HOWEVER LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO POSE A FAIR RISK IN ANY ORGANIZED STORM.
THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH ACADIANA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY THE BOUNDARY
WILL WASH OUT WHILE LIFTING BACK NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E TX LAKES INTO CEN LA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
TUESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DRY, HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED. THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL FINALLY INCH
CLOSER WITH DIVERGENCE INCREASING LOCALLY. A LINE OF STORMS MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND CLIMO NORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND STALL AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY 08/12Z. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH WITH
TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BY 08/18Z, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL, FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SEND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED MONDAY THRU
THE MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES
INTO CENLA IN THE EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
CORRIDORS OF HIGHER TOTALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 77 63 81 / 80 70 10 50
LCH 66 78 66 79 / 70 70 0 30
LFT 68 79 67 81 / 60 80 0 30
BPT 66 80 66 81 / 70 70 0 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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