753
FXUS64 KLCH 301940
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
240 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A RETURN
TO A DAILY CHANCE FOR DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WATCH OUT FOR THOSE SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAR THUNDER ROAR,
THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY IF OUTDOORS FROM THE HEAT,
REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN
AIR CONDITIONED PLACE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT OVER THE
REGION TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES LOOK
TO AGAIN REACH THE 103 TO 107 RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THIS IS JUST BELOW LOCAL HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS ARE URGED
NEVERTHELESS, PARTICULARLY FOR INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THAT BEING SAID, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EVIDENT IN 500 MB
ANALYSIS OVER LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
EAST TO WEST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BRINGING WITH IT A PLUME
OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWAT OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES (75TH TO 95TH
PERCENTILE) WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, WHICH
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS (MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG) WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30
KT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, CERTAINLY WOULD
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN
MODELED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8.5 C/KM OR HIGHER ALONG WITH
THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY. ANY STORMS COULD ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES 2 INCHES/HOUR OR GREATER, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
500 MB HIGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT ANY LARGER SCALE DISTURBANCES TO FOCUS CONVECTION, EXPECT
STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND
SPREAD INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 102-107.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECTING MOST STORMS WILL
LARGELY WIND DOWN BEFORE ANY FIREWORKS OR OTHER EVENING FESTIVITIES,
BUT THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL WANT TO PREPARE FOR THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
EVENING WITH VFR CEILINGS UNDER SCATTERED CUMULUS. A STRAY SHOWER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AROUND LFT/ARA THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
EVEN IF SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP, COVERAGE LOOKS EXTREMELY
ISOLATED SO HAVE NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED THIS IN TAFS.
PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR RANGE AT AEX IN THE 10-13Z
TIME FRAME TONIGHT, DISSIPATING QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ARA AND
LFT MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA WATERS
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE LAKES, BAYS, AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A PASSING DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...64
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page