786
FXUS64 KLCH 011119
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE FLORIDA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE. BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.
FOG TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE PATCHY IN NATURE AS WINDS
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES FROM "TANKING." PROBS SHOW MEAN VISIBILITY VALUES
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE 2 TO 5 MILE RANGE
WITH ROUGHLY A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2
MILE, WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES FOR LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
LOWER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND
WEAKEN LOSING ANY SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER. THIS WILL
ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING TO WORK WITH THE MODESTLY DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWAT NEARING 1.25 INCHES AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE ON WEDNESDAY, TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
BY THURSDAY, THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM
THE ROCKIES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS. ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE TROUGH TO WORK WITH THE ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES TO GO ALONG
WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT,
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, THE CHANCE FOR SEEING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL AND "WETTING" RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.25 INCHES IS
STILL ON THE LOW SIDE BETWEEN 20 AND 45 PERCENT.
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THERE LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH FROM THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE FINE TUNED, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE TO BE FROM ROUGHLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EASTER SUNDAY.
GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE TO POOL OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH PWAT VALUES
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF 1.5 INCHES AND NEAR OR ABOVE 1.75
INCHES THAT IS NEAR THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE. MEANWHILE, MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOVE 80 PERCENT. WHICH
MEANS CONVECTION COULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS.
OVERALL, THE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD
NOT FAVOR STORMS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. HOWEVER, THE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND FORCING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MEAN STORM
MOTION IS PROGGED TO BE PARALLEL TO THE 85H-70H THETA-E RIDGE, SO
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES MOVING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
WITH THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE, HIGHLY ANOMALOUS GULF MOISTURE,
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS, DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. THE CHANCE FOR SEEING A MUCH
NEEDED "WETTING" RAIN OF OVER 0.25 INCHES IS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND
90 PERCENT, GREATER THAN 1 INCH BETWEEN 30 AND 70 PERCENT, AND
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT, AS THE 50TH
PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS (BEST FORECAST) ON THE NBM AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.75 INCHES, AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE (REASONABLY
HIGHEST AMOUNTS) BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES. FOR NOW, WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) OR AT LEAST A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR
EASTER, AS CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW TO BRING IN DRIER AIR BY
MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHISKER PLOTS ON THE NBM FOR TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE MORE IN LINE AND SHOW READINGS NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMO
NORMS.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HAVE RANGED WIDELY FROM
VFR TO IFR WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PERIODICALLY IMPACTING
VISIBILITIES. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
3-6SM UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 14Z THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
TO A MORE CONSISTENT VFR BY 16Z BEFORE FALLING TO MVFR AFTER 01Z
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY IFR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE SO EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PRECIP WAS REMOVED FROM THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A COLD
FRONT IN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ALTHOUGH FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF
DROUGHT CONTINUES, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT,
THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE, HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY THAT WILL BRING WITH
A DECENT SHOT OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...66
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page