398
FXUS64 KLCH 211856
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
156 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NO RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH COOL
MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS EACH DAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 20 TO
40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
UPPER AIR AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER, WITH OUR CWA LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES DOMINATES THE EASTERN
CONUS, RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA,
WITH THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING FROM KLCH ANALYZING PWAT OF 0.66
INCHES, A DECREASE FROM 0.93 INCHES MIDDAY YESTERDAY. THIS PUTS US
AROUND 20TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR MID-
OCTOBER. AS A RESULT, IT IS A CLOUDLESS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA,
AND FOR THAT MATTER, THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ELONGATE NORTHWARD AS UPPER LOWS DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US AND FLORIDA, CREATING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. THESE
TYPES OF BLOCKING PATTERNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE HERE, WITH DRY WEATHER AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE ONLY CHANGE DAY-TO-DAY WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS THE
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EASTWARD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS INCREASING A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY. WITH VERY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY GULF MOISTURE
STAYING WELL OFFSHORE. ON THE CONTRARY, FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH CONTINENTAL FLOW, WITH LREF MEAN PWAT FALLING TO 10TH
PERCENTILE VALUES (LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES) BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE AFTERNOONS AS RH VALUES DROP AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT.
THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS DOWN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UPPER
RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN US. THE SURFACE HIGH MAY
PUSH EAST ENOUGH FOR THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO ACQUIRE SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT, WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. LREF MEAN
PWATS DO RISE TO AROUND AN INCH BY NEXT TUESDAY, JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER. HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE, NO REAL CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, AND WITH RIDGING
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH CONTINUED HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND WORSENING OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED TO ANY TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE BACK TO 5-10 KT AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN US WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK,
AROUND 5-15 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRING WINDS UP TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS AND AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA, WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT BRINGING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO OUR CWA. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 80S WHILE ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH FALLING TO THE 20-35
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LOCKED IN AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS AND LIKELY FURTHER DEGRADATION IN REGIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...64
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page