981
FXUS64 KLCH 102315
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 99-107 TODAY.
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAKNESS ALOFT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE ELONGATED RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS HAS BROKEN DOWN OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT NOW IN PLACE ACROSS E TX AND THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER, PROVIDING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN
GULF COAST SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THERE
ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION, THE FIRST OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE SECOND OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES AND DOWN THE TX COAST. BOTH OF THESE AREAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EASTERN
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT DUE TO THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF FLOODING,
THEREFORE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE ACROSS
LOWER ACADIANA TODAY/TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WHILE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL BE PREVALENT THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS SHOULD CAUSE
LESS, IF ANY, ISSUES.
TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY, THE SURFACE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MEANDER
AROUND THE NW GULF COAST KEEP EXCESSIVE MOISTURE (PWATS REMAINING IN
THE 2.00" RANGE) IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION TOMORROW WITHIN THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT AND LINGER THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN MORE WET WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BOTH FRI AND SAT. FRI, A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS OUTLINED ALONG THE I-49
CORRIDOR, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE DISTURBANCE. SATURDAY, THE AREA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-190 CORRIDOR BECOMES OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL
RISK.
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RIDGING AGAIN BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD AND
STEADILY MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO NEXT WEEK. NBM KEEPS MODEST POPS IN
PLACE SUN INT NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TREND IN GUIDANCE TOWARDS
A BUILDING RIDGE WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE THESE POPS COME DOWN
OVER THE COMING DAYS. WE STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DAYTIME
HEATING CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SUN/MON AS THE RIDGE
BECOME ESTABLISHED, BUT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SIMILAR TO TODAY/THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOKS UNLIKELY. ON THE FLIP SIDE, THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RISE WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET, BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. PATCHY AND THIN BR WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE. EVEN WITH
CONVECTION AND BR, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE
SOUTH TO SW BY MID DAY FRI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND A NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...05
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