166
FXUS64 KLCH 231114
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 190 EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
- A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A WARM GULF AIR MASS
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH
SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING DAILY RECORDS.
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN, AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST. EVEN WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER ARIZONA, NAEFS PERCENTILES STILL HAVE THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE IN THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE. OUR 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STAY
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO
LATE-SPRING TO EARLY-SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND
WHILE NO HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED, IT IS STILL A
GOOD IDEA TO STAY HYDRATED AND HAVE WAYS TO COOL OFF THIS WEEK.
THIS BULGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCES AT OR
NEAR ZERO.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY BELOW
AN INVERSION, AS WE HAVE DRY NORTH FLOW ALOFT. THIS TRAPPED
MOISTURE, ALONG WITH CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES, WILL LEAD TO IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG, WHICH WILL BE PATCHY TO DENSE ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ALL SIGNS POINT TO THE
FRONT WASHING OUT BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO HAVE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT.
AFTER TUESDAY, OUR WEATHER WILL BASICALLY BE A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
FOG AND STRATUS WILL AFFECT VIS AND CEILINGS THROUGH A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND LIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW (5 TO 15 KNOTS). WAVES REMAIN BELOW FOUR
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO FUELS
DRYING OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES WILL HAVE LARGE SWINGS, WITH 100% HUMIDITY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT, BUT AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 40%.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE SOUTH, BUT ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO
THE SOUTH. KBDI VALUES ARE CONTINUING TO RISE AND CURRENTLY
AVERAGE BETWEEN 300 AND 350 ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RAIN CHANCES
NON-EXISTENT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN, AND THE KBDI VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. IF YOU NEED TO BURN, MAKE SURE TO TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 82 61 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 82 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 84 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ201-261-
262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05
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