049
FXUS64 KLCH 070600
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
- NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE RETURNING
- MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AL92 IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EXTENDS SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR, DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY DUE
TO THE STUBBORNLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE FRONT REMAINING
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE GULF.
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY
IMPROVING, WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT BEGINS A NORTHWARD TRACK
TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE TRACK IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS WOBBLED IT BOTH EAST AND WEST, AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM ITSELF AND THE
STEERING FLOW. NEVERTHELESS, THE GREATER IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS ANY LOCAL IMPACTS,
THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURGE OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. WE COULD SEE RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. WPC HAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
GET INTO THE SPECIFICS OF RAINFALL TOTALS, WIND SPEEDS, AND
COASTAL IMPACTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PAST THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP A BIT, HOWEVER THEY
WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NE TO ENE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
DUE TO TD9 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF A SMALL CRAFT CAUTION AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, GALE FORCE CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. MINRH VALUES COULD DROP TO AROUND 30% IN SOME
REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AS A TD9
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES NORTH.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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