172
FXUS64 KLCH 161149
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEASTERN US TONIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN PLAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A RESULTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO THE 70S
AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WEST CONUS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR
ZERO AGAIN TODAY, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES
FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY
CREEP UP FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S TONIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO CREEP UP EACH DAY
AS MOISTURE POOLS OVERHEAD AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK, WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE BECOMES STRONG AND GUSTY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD TIGHTENS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX
WHERE IT BECOMES HUNG UP AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN AND A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90, WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THEREAFTER THANKS TO BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL
ISOLATED CHANCE OF BRIEF VCSH OR VCTS TOWARD ACADIANA TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENTLY CHANCES REMAINS TOO SLIM TO INCLUDE
IN TAF FORECAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL HAVE STRONGEST GUSTS, AROUND
22KTS) TOWARD BPT DROPPING A FEW KTS LOWER OVER ACADIANA. DIURNAL
WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE TONIGHT, LIKELY BECOMING VERY LIGHT OVER
ACADIANA WHILE PERSISTING MODEST SSE BREEZES FURTHER WEST.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. THIS EVENING, WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT, INCREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BY TOMORROW, WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO
AROUND 3-6 FEET. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT
WEEK, BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE DECREASING
A BIT INTO THE 5-15 KTS RANGE THEREAFTER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRINGING IN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE
TODAY BEFORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN AND REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...30
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