476
FXUS64 KLCH 021818
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
118 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING, EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- A WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHILE CHANCES OF RAINFALL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH SOME
REDUCTIONS OF HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL SQUEEZE TROUGHING
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING OVER CENLA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY OVER
EASTERN TX/ SOUTHERN LA AND THEIR OFFSHORE MARINE WATERS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS PATTERN IS NOT ONE, WHERE DAILY SHOWERS CAN BE PERFECTLY TIMED
OUT FOR EACH CITY TO A T. THEY WILL BE WORKING OFF THE EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAY BE
QUICKLY QUENCHED 10-15 DEGREES WITHIN THUNDERSHOWERS AND SHORTLY
AFTER. TOMORROW WILL THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MEANDER FURTHER
OFFSHORE LEADING TO HIGHER CHANCES OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE COAST AND
DECREASING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES. HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY- TRENDING IN THE MID 80S. AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AGAIN ALONG TOWARD THE TX / LA COASTLINE,
CONVERGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE, AGAIN
WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES KEEPING NEAR AND BELOW THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BY FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BROADENS AND SHIFTS OVER THE SECONUS. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LOCALLY. THAT SAID, THE BOUNDARY
DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
SLACK AND EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO ACQUIRE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
COMPONENTS INTO SATURDAY. MIDDLING RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER- IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN. LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST WHILE THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE
BROADLY PAINTED ALONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MAY BUILD IN SOME DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE THAT MAY BEGIN TO INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SPREADING NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTSIDE OF
TSRA, CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR, THOUGH SOME THINK SCT BASES UNDER
3KFT AGL ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL RETAIN VARIABLE EAST COMPONENTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIURNAL CONVECTION BEGINS TO
DIMINISH. STILL SOME SCATTERED CHANCES BELOW THE I-10 CORRIDOR
REMAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AM HOURS OF THE 03RD.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CAUSE PREVAILING
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW 3
FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE EAST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES THIS WEEKEND AND INTERIOR
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE SECONUS WITH DECREASING OFFSHORE
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
STAYING ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MIDDLING RAIN
CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WORTH NOTING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TEND TO PERSIST LONGER IN THE HOURLY
FORECAST SOUTH OF HWY 190, WHILE CHANCES ACROSS CENLA AND NORTHWEST
ARE LITTLE MORE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY SLIGHTLY LOWER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page