612
FXUS64 KLCH 181141
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
541 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
- THE ARRIVING COLD CANADIAN AIR AND BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
ABOUT WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRE INITIATION AND SPREAD ON
SUNDAY.
- A COASTAL LOW ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A RATHER CHILLY AND DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS AND BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST OF THE COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A BRIEF INCREASE IN
NORTHWEST WINDS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK. JUST MID AND AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE AND
LOW LAYERS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. WIND CHILLS BY DAYBREAK INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 20S, NOT QUITE REACHING COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT WILL BRING ABOUT AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER RISK.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY THAT WILL KEEP THE
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WITH CHILLY NIGHT TIME LOWS INTO TUESDAY.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, A ROBUST JET STREAK IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THAT WILL MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF EAST
PAC AND GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER A COOLER SURFACE LAYER. THE RESULT
WILL BE OVER-RUNNING TYPE RAIN FORMING. MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 100H-50H WILL BE OVER 80 PERCENT, WITH PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
THEREFORE, SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND INSTABILITY
STAYING OFFSHORE, ONLY EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY CAUSING THE RAINFALL.
ON THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT WILL MOVE
THE COASTAL LOW AWAY FROM THE AREA AND END THE RAIN CHANCES WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND, A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE PLAINS THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN
THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO MODEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LOWERING SEAS. THIS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL AGAIN PRODUCE LOW
WATER CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS DURING THE LOW TIDE
PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MOVING UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS BUILD INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME, MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT, TO GO
ALONG WITH ABNORMALLY DRY OR MODERATE DROUGHT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS,
TO BRING ABOUT A FIRE RISK FOR GRASS, MARSH, AND WOOD FIRES. NON
PROFESSIONAL OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 49 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 52 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 49 33 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 55 35 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
475.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05
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