792
FXUS64 KLCH 072116
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
DISCUSSION
PERIOD OF ENHANCED AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES IS COMING TO AN END,
WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE HORIZON.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROF AXIS AND DEEP MSTR POOL THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
AREA WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
DEPARTING THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER THE ARKLATEX TRANSLATES EWD AND RIDGING OVER THE SE GULF
EXPANDS TWD THE W/NW. ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND LINGERING DEEP MSTR
WILL RESIDE OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND N OF HWY 190 TO ALLOW FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TOMORROW, BUT OTHERWISE
THE EXPANDING RIDGE AND ARRIVAL OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AND RESULT IN WARMING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. READINGS TOMORROW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
JUST A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT A STEADY WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF MERGES WITH
AN EXPANDING RIDGE SE OF THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME QUITE ROBUST ON FRI, WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING ESE INTO THE NW GULF, AND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF THE RIDGE WILL WAX AND WANE A BIT OWING TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING ITS EASTERN FLANK INTO AN ERN CONUS TROF, GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND BOTH DRIER AND WARMER, WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO PARTS OF SC LA SAT THROUGH TUE.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AS A STEADY S/SW
SFC FLOW KEEPS ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AMID DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES (APPARENT TEMPERATURES) ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TO AROUND 105
ON FRI, AND INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE WHETHER VALUES
WILL EXCEED OUR 108 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD, BUT AT SOME
POINT OVER THE WEEKEND, WE MAY LOOK BACK WITH FONDNESS AT THE
RECENT PERIOD OF CLOUDY/WETTER/COOLER WEATHER.
13
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PREVAILS.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 90 74 93 / 30 40 10 10
LCH 78 89 77 91 / 10 10 0 10
LFT 77 91 76 92 / 10 20 0 10
BPT 79 90 79 91 / 10 10 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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