086
FXUS64 KLCH 180613
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1213 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN GREATER COVERAGE.
- PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT SE WINDS ALOFT IN
PLACE. THIS SOUTHERLY GULF ADVECTION WILL HELP RAISE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80'S AGAIN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE LOWS REMAIN ROUGHLY 15°F
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THOUGH LOOKING MORE PATCHY AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE AT THIS TIME WITH ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT. DESPITE
AFTERNOON RH RANGING BETWEEN 50-60% DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
WORSEN AS WITH ROUGHLY 0.10-0.15" OF PAN EVAPORATION MEASURED
RECENTLY. COMBINED WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUST REACHING 15-20MPH,
CAUTION WHILE BURNING SHOULD BE TAKEN-WHERE PERMITTED. CONCURRENTLY
AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. CHANCES OF RAIN DO ENTER THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY,
BUT ARE LIMITED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY MID LEVELS AND
SUBSEQUENT INVERSIONS LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE PAINTS
A LOCALLY STRONGER SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYLINE COLD FRONT SURGING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
FRIDAY MORNING SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING
TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY TO USHER OUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL
CAVEAT THIS FRONT WON'T CONTINUE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON
RH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS. MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70'S
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BLENDED AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL HOLD ON TO ISOLATED CHANCES, BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE TOO FOREGONE TO CALL IT UNSETTLED WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THE STRONGER FAVORABLE FORCING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAX LIE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG IN SEEING
VERY SUBSTANTIAL WETTING RAINFALLS. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS ADDITION
TO MOISTURE WILL HELP HAMPER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN PATCHY DENSE AREAS. VISIBILITIES AROUND
1/4MI ARE LIKELY OCCUR PERIODICALLY THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG MAY FORM
INTO LOW CEILINGS TOWARD THE DAWN HOURS BEFORE SOUTH WINDS MIX OUT
DURING MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ARA AND LFT ARE MOST LIKELY TO
CARRY LONGER DURATIONS OF LOW VIS FOG.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING ABOUT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VARIABLE PRESSURE FIELDS AND ONSHORE WINDS AT A
BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE FLOW.
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGING ABOUT STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
PERSISTENT FORECAST WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE STILL SETTLED INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF PATCHY
TO DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE. DAY TIME RH VALUES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65
PERCENT WITH NO RAINFALL LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME CHANCES
FOR A WETTING RAINFALL OF AT LEAST A 0.25 INCH IS ROUGHLY 50-70%
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, CHANCES OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OF 1.00" OR HIGHER IS MUCH LOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 84 62 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 82 66 82 64 / 10 0 0 10
LFT 82 63 83 63 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 84 66 83 65 / 10 0 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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