530
FXUS64 KLCH 101805
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THANKS TO COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
- WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS AND MARSH FIRES AGAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
THOSE OUT AND ABOUT EARLY THIS MORNING WERE GREETED WITH QUITE A
COOL START TO THE DAY! MORNING TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION, AND DRY AIR HAS ONLY CONTINUED TO
FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. TEMPS HAVE SO FAR STRUGGLED TO
BREAK INTO THE 80S, BUT SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S AREA
WIDE BY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND, FEATURES ARE SET TO MOVE AROUND THE US.
INCREDIBLY, THIS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
HERE. TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES, PRISCILLA AND RAYMOND, ARE MOVING
NORTH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA OF WESTERN MX. AS THEY MOVE NORTH,
RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL SHUNT NORTH AND
EAST, ITS AXIS LINING RIGHT ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER. IN RESPONSE,
WEAK TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BECOME RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH
SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN.
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND DEEPENING TROF, NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ON THIS FLOW, RISING
HEIGHTS FROM THE RIDGE WILL PUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STAUNCHLY OVERHEAD TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK IN ALMOST A PSEUDO OMEGA-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. THE COASTAL LOW
SHOULD PUSH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER MON/TUE. AT THE SAME
TIME, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO COME ASHORE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. BY MID WEEK, INFLUENCE FROM WEST COAST LOW AND
DEPARTURE OF EAST COAST LOW WILL ALLOW UPPER RIDGE TO SPREAD INTO
THE EAST US, WHILE ALSO WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE SUDDEN PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE GULF MAY ALLOW FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEST GULF THURSDAY, BUT NO TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
GUIDANCE HASN'T QUITE FIGURED OUT WHAT THE WEST COAST LOW WILL DO
BEYOND LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING MOVES AROUND THE US, ITS
INFLUENCE WILL STILL BE A LARGE DRIVER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
NEXT WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S, AGAIN, DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF DRY AIRMASS, LACK OF
CLOUD COVER AND UNDER RISING HEIGHTS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER
RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS STILL MOVING INTO THE
REGION.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
WINDS AND SEAS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. OUTER SEAS 20 TO 60 NM WILL HOLD INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, FINALLY RELAXING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WORK WEEK RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW WINDS AND
SEAS AND DRY, CLEAR SKIES.
11
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
COOL, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
BUT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND BETWEEN
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
RIGHT OVERHEAD.
NO NOTABLE GULF FETCH EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW
HUMIDITIES EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT CAN BE
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT MAXIMUM RH VALUES FROM 75 TO 95 PERCENT GIVE
INDICATION THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT REBOUND COMPLETELY EACH NIGHT.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 85 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 85 60 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 88 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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