422
FXUS64 KLCH 232337
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A WARM GULF AIR MASS THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING DAILY RECORDS.
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
- A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AGAIN IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE
FORECAST.
A WEAK "COLD" FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TRYING TO "BACKDOOR" THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE MUCH OF A PUNCH WITH IT AND
WILL ONLY BE NOTICEABLE WITH A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
POOLING. MEANWHILE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OF THE AIR TEMPERATURE TO NEAR OR BELOW CURRENT DEWPOINTS.
THEREFORE, LOOKS LIKE A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR FOG BECOMING DENSE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS, LIKELY BETWEEN THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE COAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY AND FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
THAT MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
RATHER BENIGN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF FROM THE SOUTHEAST US THAT WILL BRING A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A WARM AND MOIST GULF AIRMASS.
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSEASONABLY
WARM EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY CLIMO NORMS WITH SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING DAILY
RECORDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALSO, WITH MAINLY RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT, NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO INCREASE AGAIN.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH
DEEPENS WITH THE NORTHERN JET STREAM TAKING A DIP TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES LACKING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOL DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN THAT
WOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS. HOWEVER,
WHISKER PLOTS FROM NBM SHOW ABOUT A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE LEVELS, SO IT IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED JUST HOW MUCH OF A COOL OFF MAY TAKE PLACE DURING
THE WEEKEND.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AREA WIDE AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. AREAS OF GROUND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MODEL PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY
LIKELY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SINK TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT FOG IS STILL LIKELY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE DAY.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. THEREFORE, A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS
BEHIND IT. NO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL ALSO BE OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. NO CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE WEATHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 53 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 61 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 60 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 62 82 61 82 / 0 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ201-261-
262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...66
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