248
FXUS64 KLCH 221109
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
509 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE LOW WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRING A COLD SOAKING RAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RIDGING DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EARLY MORNING BRINGING RATHER COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERN JET STREAM BECOMING
MORE ACTIVE AND BRINGING WARMER AND MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER
SURFACE AND THE REST IS A SOLID MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. STILL
A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME FROM ROUGHLY 5K FEET TO THE SURFACE,
SO ALTHOUGH DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR, ONLY SPRINKLES
SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND.
LOOKING TO BE A RATHER DREARY WEEKEND WEATHER WISE. REMNANTS OF
THE COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RATHER CHILLY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND GET CAUGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP FORM A SURFACE LOW
OFF LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND JUST OFF THE COAST.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, MODEST SOUTHERLY JET WILL
HELP INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES, WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER LOW LEVELS, THE SPRINKLES WILL
BEGIN TO TURN INTO MORE SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL INCREASE LIFT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FURTHER, WITH BETTER LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE LOW, THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE BECOMING RATHER
WIDESPREAD.
MOISTURE VALUES SHOW BY SUNDAY MORNING A RATHER SATURATED AIR MASS
WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 90 PERCENT AND PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO THE 1.10 TO 1.40 INCH RANGE WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE ON THE LOW END TO OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON THE HIGH
END.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING OFFSHORE, BEST INSTABILITY, BEST
MOISTURE, AND ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL ALSO REMAIN
OFFSHORE. WITH THAT SAID, GOOD DEEP MID LAYER SHEAR, STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND SOME ELEVATED CAPE, WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD.
THE CAPE HOWEVER, IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH AT THIS TIME, THAT
ANY HAIL THAT MAY FORM WITH THE STORMS WILL BE SMALL AND RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK.
THEREFORE, LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THAT WILL BRING A GOOD SOAKING FROM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES, WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE OF AN DOWNGLIDE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE INSTEAD OF AN UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP.
RATHER FAIR WEATHER DAY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER AND
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
RUA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
RATHER FAIR CONDITIONS WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED AS THE LONG TERM
FORECAST BEGINS WITH DECENT SOLAR HEATING AND A SOUTH WIND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE BUILD-UP AHEAD OF IT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE, TO
GO ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH, FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME LOOKS DRY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS TO END THE WEEK AND THE MONTH.
RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
OVER-RIDING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET BRINGS WARMER AND MOIST AIR OVER A COOLER
SURFACE LAYER. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS FOR THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINALS
OFF AND ON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS CONTINUING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, AFTER 23/06Z, SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MIX IN WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MODEST NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A
SURFACE HIGH TO NORTH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY RIDGING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ALONG A COASTAL
TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH A MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.
THE LOW WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
RATHER LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS BY TUESDAY.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 51 39 48 38 / 20 70 80 10
LCH 48 42 51 43 / 60 80 90 10
LFT 53 44 52 44 / 30 80 100 30
BPT 49 43 54 43 / 60 90 90 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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