805
FXUS64 KLCH 061754
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 70S CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY THURSDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO SATURDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS, ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. NO HARD
FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO LET GO OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.
EXPECT THIS CLOUD BANK TO HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WARM,
GULF MOISTURE STREAMS IN OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND GUSTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TODAY AS MIXING TAKES ADVANTAGE OF
THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROF AND JET MAX TO THE
NORTH AND HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
WITH FURTHER MOISTURE ENTRENCHED TO THE REGION, SO INCREASES THE
DENSE FOG RISK TONIGHT. AN AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG ADIVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE PULSE IS SET TO QUICKLY EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, WITH AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SET TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX IN RESPONSE. FEW LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT FOR THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR STORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THEREIN.
VERY WARM, MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN WINTER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 70S WILL
PERSIST WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND
BACKING ON SURFACE WINDS, WHICH WOULD LEND CREDENCE TO THE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEEDED TO SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, SCATTERED
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL AND A LINE CAN DEVELOP AND MARCH EAST
AROUND AND AFTER SUNDOWN.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE IN THAT AFTERNOON,
DISCRETE PERIOD. AFTER THE LINE FORMS, CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF THE LA/TX
STATE LINE. THOSE TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MORE OF THE WIND THREAT
WITH THE LINE'S FORMATION.
THEREAFTER, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY TO THE END OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. NOT
ANTICIPATING A BIG FREEZE AT THIS TIME, BUT SEASONABLE HIGHS WILL
CERTAINLY BE ON THE TABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS! (YAY)
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
LOW CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. MIXING IS TAKING ITS TIME TO
DEVELOP, BUT SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN THE NEXT HOUR, HELPING TO FREE
UP SOME BLUE SKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARM, MOIST AIR
IN PLACE ALLOWS ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY LOW CIGS AND WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPS INTO WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE RETURNED, WASHING MOST FOG OUT OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. ONLY SABINE AND CALCASIEU CHANNELS ARE NOW HAVING ISSUES.
HOWEVER, AFTER 12 PM, EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE HERE AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF CLEAR WATERS
BEFORE MARINE FOG DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ALL LAKES, BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN STANDING HIGH TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LATE-
WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS, TURNING WINDS OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL SIT OVERTOP THE REGION
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
IN THE MEANTIME, STRONG SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
THE NORTH. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE, DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
RANGE IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE AND 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE
TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BREEZY WINDS AND DRY
GRASSES COULD LEAD TO SOME CONCERNING BURN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AND DRY AIR
RETURNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 76 56 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 76 62 76 63 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 78 61 78 61 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 79 60 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-
152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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