733
FXUS64 KLCH 221156
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS THAT SAW RAIN EARLIER COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT.
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AS OF MIDNIGHT, VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ON RADAR, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE SHORTLY. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE PER
THE LATEST SOUNDING; HOWEVER, WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE RICH
SOUTHERLY FLOW, IT IS NOT NEARLY AS PROMINENT AS IN PREVIOUS
SOUNDINGS, NOR WILL IT REMAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER THAN
24 HOURS AGO, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO EVEN SOME LOW 70S.
LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING A FEW
ADDITIONAL DEGREES LOWER DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WITH RECENT RAINFALL
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN
SETX, WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 5 SM.
OVER THE DAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ARKLATEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING MOISTURE RICH
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE. THE LAST SOUNDING HAD PWATS JUST BELOW THE 75TH
PERCENTILE, WITH FORECAST PWATS LATER TODAY EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE
90TH PERCENTILE. A MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE TODAY. DETERMINISTIC RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD, NOW RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 1 INCH, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN 24 HOURS REMAINING AROUND
40 PERCENT.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, COMBINED WITH PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES, WILL SUPPORT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK; HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED, SUBSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS A
DEEPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL
STICK AROUND OUR REGION LIKE THE PLAGUE. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE RETREATING, SO COOLER AIR IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA WHATSOEVER. IN FACT, WE CAN EXPECT
THE OPPOSITE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MEXICAN PENINSULA AND GULF, NUDGING NORTH TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (WITH
SOME 90S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FOR THE KBPT AND
KLCH TERMINALS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 22/15Z FOR KBPT AND
KLCH THEN SPREAD TO THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER AFTER 22/18Z. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET OR 23/01Z
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD, WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MULTIPLE PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW AND MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...07
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