713
FXUS64 KLCH 110602
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE ALSO CREATING LOW WATER CONDITIONS DURING LOW
TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER, LARGELY DRY, COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRESENTLY APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS MAINTAINING
BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING PRODUCING APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. A LOW WATER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THIS MORNING AS THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND LOW TIDE WILL
PRODUCE ABNORMALLY LOW WATER CONDITIONS IN SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKES. IT'S A MARGINAL CASE, BUT A LITTLE EXTRA ADVISEMENT NEVER
HURT ANYONE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH TIME SPENT
BELOW FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER BRIEF, LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
JONES
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
WINDS TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. NOT A LOT OF RETURN MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING IT. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
FRONT EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. IT IS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT A COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS DO PRODUCE SMALL AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DAYS OF
LAST YEAR'S HISTORIC GULF BLIZZARD, BUT THESE ARE OUTLIERS AND ARE
NOT BEING REALISTICALLY CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME FRAME.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BKN TO OVC
HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY BECOMING SCT BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SEAS FROM 3-8 FEET. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
COINCIDE WITH LOW TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING TO PRODUCE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS IN SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AMONGST QUICK
RESPONDING FUELS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS. A BRIEF INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 57 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 60 37 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 59 34 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 61 38 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-
432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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