656
FXUS64 KLCH 121113
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD WILL BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVED FROM ATOP THE REGION OVER THE DAY
TUESDAY AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNED AS A RESULT, AND HAS TAPERED THIS EVENING.
ALOFT THERE IS A RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE A RAPID
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND AS A WARMER GULF AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM, MAXTS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE MINTS ONLY
FALL TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SEE A STEEP
RISE, BUT DESPITE THIS INCREASING MOISTURE, POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
ZERO.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF THE SAME WAY THAT THE SHORT TERM ENDED
WITH THE WARM AND DRY (RAIN WISE), YET HUMID PATTERN PERSISTING.
HOWEVER WE CAN EXPECT A PATTERN CHANGE FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW HAILING FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST THEN MOVING EASTWARD, HOWEVER
TIMING AND LOCATIONS HAVE SPLIT AMONGST THE MODELS. THIS SPLIT WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN WHEN AND WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN OUR AREA. THE
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TREKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING BACK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE EARLY WORK WEEK PERIOD.
WHILE IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC QPF AMOUNTS,
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL: THERE IS A 70 TO
90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE (0.01+ INCHES) RAINFALL
AND A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RECEIVING A WETTING RAIN (0.25+
INCHES) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, AND SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL TODAY. TONIGHT, WINDS
BECOME CALM NEARLY AREA-WIDE, WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PATCHY FOG. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE, WITH THE BEST SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG CURRENTLY AT LCH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 52 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 77 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 76 56 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 79 60 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17
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