126
FXUS64 KLCH 221121
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TODAY.
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING BKN THIS AFTERNOON AND OVC THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER 23/06Z AT THE COASTAL
TAF SITES WITH VCSH/SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 23/09Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 325 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018/
DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS
EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS, CONTINUING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
THE REGION, REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO ECHOS
ON RADAR, WITH WEAK RETURNS BEYOND 60NM OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA QUITE COOL, IN THE MID 40S ACROSS C LA, WITH
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OVER THE COOLER AIR. LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE COOL SECTOR, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
LIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, ESPECIALLY FOR
TUESDAY.
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH, PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE WILLA, MOVES OVER OLD MEXICO, SOUTHERN TEXAS, AND THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
FRONTAL LOW ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING, ALONG WITH AN END OF
THE PRECIPITATION, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DML
MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS 3-5 FEET EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING FOR THE 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES. WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS EVENING, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE FRONTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 69 53 68 55 / 20 20 20 20
LCH 70 57 65 59 / 20 50 70 50
LFT 71 59 68 59 / 20 40 50 40
BPT 69 58 64 59 / 20 70 70 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
475.
AVIATION...26
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