660
FXUS64 KLCH 210521
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP THE TX COAST. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
AS OF MIDNIGHT, DRIZZLE TO LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SETX. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE LATEST SOUNDING,
RESULTING IN MUCH OF THE RADAR RETURNS FALLING AS LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY A FEW DEGREES FURTHER DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS;
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SHIFTING
EASTWARD, ALLOWING MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TODAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO MOISTEN, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE.
DETERMINISTIC RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO
ONE INCH, WITH PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING ONE INCH REMAINING BELOW
40 PERCENT.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK; HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED, SUBSEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS A
DEEPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SETX CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS OF MIDNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING,
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ACADIANA TERMINALS, SO VCSH
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF INTO
THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER STX WILL HELP INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. ELEVATED MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD, BRINGING A RICH PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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