427
FXUS64 KLCH 161130
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS
IN EFFECT 11 AM TODAY TO 1 AM SAT. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH 9 AM TO 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
- HIGH WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN WIND ADVISORIES AS
WELL AS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN STARTING TODAY. HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LOOKING AT RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT'S NO
SECRET WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS: STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM AUSTIN, TX TO MEMPHIS, TN. WINDS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHERLY. THIS INFLUENCE
IS NEARING THE NORTHWEST LA LINE AND WILL SOON SPREAD LOW
MAGNITUDE NORTH WINDS INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. THIS WILL START
SHAPING UP AROUND SUNRISE. BY MID-MORNING WE SHOULD ALL FEEL A
SLIGHT NORTH BREEZE.
THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY THEN SWEEPS THROUGH SWIFTLY, ARRIVING TO THE
LAKES REGION EARLY MORNING AND SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY NOON. THE
INITIAL WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY
BEFORE THE FAUCET CRANKS WIDE OPEN AND WINDS INCREASE MARKEDLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UNLIKE SOME FRONTAL PASSAGES WHERE WE SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS, THESE WINDS ARE SET TO INCREASE AND
STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND! ALL THANKS TO
ENHANCEMENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF AND ATTENDANT POSTFRONTAL
HIGH. AREAS FROM COASTAL TEXAS ACROSS TO COASTAL LOUISIANA AND
NORTHEAST INTO CENLA WILL SEE THE LONGEST DURATION OF THE HIGHEST
SPEEDS AND THUS ARE INCLUDED IN A WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND NOON. WINDS 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL START SLACKING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL US, SHUTTING OFF THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS COME MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS! HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE REFLECTED BY YOUR LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE FRONT. INTERIOR
TEXAS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 70S WHEN THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES,
WHEREAS CENLA AND SOUTHWARD SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S BEFORE IT
COOLS OFF.
SATURDAY, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE LOWER 70S. AND WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS IT'LL FEEL COOLER OUT. AS FOR LOWS, MID 50S
SATURDAY MORNING AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY. HOW'S THAT FOR A TASTE OF
FALL!
THESE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR RAPIDLY
GROWING WILDFIRES. BE IT A FLICKED CIGARETTE BUTT OR WIND-INDUCED
POWERLINE SPARK, SMALL FLAMES COULD BECOME AN UNCONTROLLABLE
PROBLEM SWIFTLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.
WHETHER YOU ARE UNDER A BURN BAN OR NOT, DO NOT BURN. LOOK TO YOUR
LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR BEST BURN BAN INFORMATION AND IF YOU SEE A
FIRE/SMOKE, SAY SOMETHING!
TAKE CARE OUT THERE AND ENJOY THIS COOL OFF!
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE YET TO BE DRIED UP POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THERE ARE A FEW NON TAF TERMINALS THIS MORNING THAT ARE
SEEING PATCHY FOG. THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH WHATEVER LINGERING GETTING BLOWN AWAY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL
START TURNING OFFSHORE AFTER SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO A NEARING
STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE INTO COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE RESULTING IN RAPID ONSET HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
UNTIL 7 PM WHEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A GALE WARNING FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS, GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND 7 TO 11 FOOT SEAS.
THIS HAZARDOUS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY SATURDAY WHEN
WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY SATURDAY EVENING
BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN VERY ELEVATED INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
IN THE COMING PREDAWN HOURS. MUCH STRONGER NORTH WINDS WILL THEN
SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, REACHING THE COASTLINE BY
ROUGHLY 10 AM AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BY NOON. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH DRY AIR AND LOWER RH
LAGGING BEHIND. AREAS WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNING TODAY WILL SEE
RH MINIMUMS 30 TO 35 PERCENT OVERLAPPING WITH NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AREA WIDE SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
RH MINIMUMS 25 TO 30 PERCENT COMBINING WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 20 AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR LAZ027>030.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-
241>243-252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ029-032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR TXZ180-259-260.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...87
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