225
FXUS64 KLCH 180526
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1226 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING DEPICTS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FAR TO
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHILE A SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS PUTS OUR CWA IN A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL BRING ONE MORE NIGHT OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN THIS MOISTURE, BUT IF FOG DOES FORM, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE DENSE. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL RAMP UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THOUGH CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD BE INITIALLY INHIBITED BY A WEAK CAP. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED WIND SHEAR, THOUGH A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST TX
WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH TALL,
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. AS A
RESULT, THESE STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER IN PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS SOME
STREET FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ROUGHLY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT THROUGH LAKE CHARLES. HREF
ENSEMBLE MEAN STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 1- 1.5 INCHES
FOR THIS REGION. TOTALS ELSEWHERE WILL BE LOWER, BUT MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.
THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL BRING
COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST IN COASTAL
AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THE DRIER AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST GULF
AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR THE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING SATURDAY, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL REACH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
18/22Z-19/02Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO POSSIBLE IFR LEVELS. ALSO,
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHERLY
WINDS RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, APPROACHING GALE CRITERIA
FOR THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL GULF WATERS WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY FOR SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING GULF WATERS AND ALL LAKES/BAYS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY AS ELEVATED FLOW TURNS TO
THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 KT, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
ONE MORE NIGHT OF WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 10-15 KT NORTHEAST WINDS AND AFTERNOON RH
FALLING TO 25-35 PERCENT. THIS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY,
BUT FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE LESSER AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, AROUND 5-
10 KT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STARTING TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-455-475.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
452-470-472.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...07
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