159
FXUS64 KLCH 222312
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE.
- SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY MAY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY INLAND AREAS. DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AROUND A RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS HAS
ALLOWED GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE CWA, WITH DEWPOINTS AT MOST
SITES ABOUT 10F HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT, THE MID-LEVEL
DRY LAYER OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED PER THE
18Z KLCH SOUNDING, WHICH SHOWED PWAT OF 1.33 INCHES. A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING OWING TO DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH VALUES ACROSS THE CWA
UP TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY
GREATER COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE GREATER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES
(GENERALLY 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE), A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND
DAM THROUGH CROWLEY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. DETERMINISTIC RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THIS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-1.5
INCH RANGE, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR.
ANY HIGHER END TOTALS APPEAR MOST LIKELY OVER AN AREA INCLUDING
JEFFERSON/ORANGE COUNTIES AND WESTERN CAMERON/CALCASIEU PARISHES,
WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT ARE IN
THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER, THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN
FAIRLY MUTED OVER THIS REGION DUE TO STABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF
THE ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE AIRMASS MAY
RECOVER IN TIME FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THIS POTENTIAL.
EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST. SOME
PATCHY MIST/LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST TX OR CENTRAL LA IF SKIES CAN CLEAR ENOUGH, PARTICULARLY
ANY AREAS THAT SAW SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THIS THREAT LOOKS ISOLATED AND LIMITED, AND ANY FOG/MIST THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE TO SPEAK OF IN
THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE AR/LA BORDER SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A WARM, HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE STALLED
FRONT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
STARTING SUNDAY, BRINGING A FURTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TO START THE WEEK. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
FEATURE CONTINUED WARM, HUMID, AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THIS HOUR,
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH, MOST STORMS HAVE
MIGRATED INTO CENTRAL LA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LARGELY
UNDISTURBED AIRMASS TODAY, LEAVING MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA
QUIET EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. ONCE SUN GOES DOWN, ANY
REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH WANING
ENERGY.
LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVING
INLAND.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A FEW UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH. FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WINDS
SHOULD BE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE
TO THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S WHERE THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO
PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENTS IN ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page