841
FXUS64 KLCH 011829
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
129 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EASTERLY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS TODAY.
COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DEGRADING UPPER RIDGE,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING. SOME
ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BE MINDFUL OF THE DAILY
STORMS. HEAR THUNDER ROAR, THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY
IF OUTDOORS FROM THE HEAT, REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN AIR CONDITIONED PLACE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVENING FIREWORK ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN RESPONSE TO AN
EASTERLY WAVE BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT TO THE REGION.
ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE IS DEGRADING AND SHUNTING TO THE NORTH
FURTHER REINFORCING THE WEAKNESS OVERHEAD. THIS IS HELPING THE
INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
AS THERE IS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, ENERGY (~3800+ J/KG MU CAPE) AND
NO CAPPING IN PLACE, PER THE 18Z RAOB. THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY
INTENSE UPDRAFTS WROUGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL (90TH + PERCENTILE
MOISTURE) AND EXTREME AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING. ANOTHER HAZARD IS
DOWNGUSTS WITHIN STORMS. THESE VERY HEAVY, WATER LOADED,
DOWNDRAFTS WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTING WINDS AS THEY'RE SO HEAVY AND
FURTHER ENHANCED BY ELEVATED DCAPE.
FINALLY, THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW, WE'RE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. RAIN RATES WITHIN STORMS IS (REASONABLY) TOPPING OUT
IN THE 2.0 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE BUT THERE COULD BE HIGHER RATES/MORE
INTENSE DOWNPOURS INTERMIXED. SO FAR CELLS ARE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE WHICH IS HELPING TO SPREAD THE RAINFALL OVER A GREATER
AREA.
EVEN STILL, THERE WILL REMAIN A FLOOD RISK WITHIN URBAN POPULATION
AREAS AND OR WITHIN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE RISK OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WEAKNESS ALOFT INTERMIXES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
PRESENT IN THE REGION. FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, MAKE SURE
TO MONITOR FOR STORM CHANCES AND ALWAYS REMEMBER: WHEN THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM EAST TO WEST IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE COMES STREAMING INTO THE REGION BENEATH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
WET DOWNBURSTS AND FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WEAK VARIABLE FLOW IS ONGOING WITH CEILINGS
IN THE LOWER MVFR RANGE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH SUNDOWN AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
GENERAL WEAKNESS WILL KEEP WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS LOW
OVER THE PERIOD. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INLAND WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE WEAKNESS OVERHEAD WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE EXTREME NEARSHORE WATERS DAILY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM EAST TO WEST IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE COMES STREAMING INTO THE REGION BENEATH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
WET DOWNBURSTS AND FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH STORMS.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BENEATH GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE
REGION ALLOWING DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11
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