019
FXUS64 KLCH 081525
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
GOOD MORNING,
THE UPDATE INVOLVES UPDATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST
TRENDS. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS LOOK TO BE ON POINT THIS MORNING,
THUS NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
11/CALHOUN
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR EARLY MAY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SEVERAL RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY MORNING AND SEVERAL MORE ARE ON TRACK TO DO
SO THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS (IT'S STILL 80
DEGREES AT THE LAFAYETTE REGIONAL AIRPORT AS OF THIS WRITING).
PATCHY FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS THAT HAVE SEEN
A DROP IN WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN 14Z.
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE A VIRTUAL CARBON COPY OF
YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO ECLIPSE THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS VERNON, RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES
PARISHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN EASTWARD ADVANCING LOW OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THAT WILL
BRING CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS TODAY. WINDS
WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION ALTHOUGH FOG ISN'T EXPECTED TO
BECOME DENSE.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
SHIFTED THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LATER INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PROBS DECREASING CLOSER TO THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE (FORECAST
PWAT VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES) WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATE DRIVEN FLASH FLOODING.
AS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT, THIS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE THREAT LESSENING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
A NOTICEABLY COOLER (ALBEIT NOT COLD) AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
JONES
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
AS THE PERIOD KICKS OFF ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE QUITE
PLEASANT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
CHANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL
SEE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS PICKING UP. GOING INTO MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES, MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING INTO OUR GULF WATERS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE DAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
PART OF OUR AREA IS IN A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT MURKY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. IF IT IS SLOWER TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, WE
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL DAYS OF SCATTERED PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE SLOWLY BUT WILL BE NEAR OUR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
MAXTS IN THE 80S AND MINTS IN THE 60S.
STIGGER/87
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH A VERY HUMID LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN AROUND SUNSET AND LIKELY
IFR AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. PATCHY, GENERALLY LIGHT, FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z WHERE WINDS WEAKEN WITH
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6SM.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG/HAZE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING, IMPROVING
BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 72 91 65 / 0 10 20 50
LCH 86 75 89 71 / 0 0 10 20
LFT 89 77 91 73 / 0 0 10 30
BPT 87 74 89 71 / 0 0 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...66
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