653
FXUS64 KLCH 011121
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
HARDIN COUNTY TO ST. LANDRY PARISH FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM TODAY TO SATURDAY AM.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE
REGION.
- COOL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO CENLA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AM AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS COULD BE AS LOW AS LOW TO MID 60S FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 190.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING REMAIN A
MAJORCONCERN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE SPC HAS KEPT US
OUT OF ANY RISK AREA SO FAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES WITH 3-6 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEGREES. TO PUT IT
DIFFERENTLY, WE WILL NOT BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. INSTEAD, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A LONG-DURATION
RAIN EVENT. DOWNSHEAR CORDIFI VECTORS INDICATE THAT STORMS WILL BE
FAST-MOVING; IF SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM CAN REACH THE SURFACE, WE
COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.WITH THE FAST-MOVING
NATURE OF TOMORROWS EVENT, THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT COMES FROM
TRAINING STORMS OVER ONE LOCATION. THE TIMING FOR THE HIGHEST
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM TONIGHT TO 4 AM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP NEARLY 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A WELCOME SIGHT FOR THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY WITH HOW WARM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR. WINDS DO NOT LOOK CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND
ADVISORY BUT IT ALSO CANT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY. LOOKING AT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, SOUTHERN FLOW WILL RESUME ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-80S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL MAINLY BE ZONAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE RAINFALL, AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAIN AS WELL AS ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VIS,
POTENTIALLY FOR HOURS AT A TIME IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS
LARGELY MAINTAIN IFR WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LIFR POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY, CAUSING
HEAVY RAIN AND THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
VISIBILITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON SATURDAY, THE
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER OFFSHORE, AND NORTH WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE. A GALE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS, AND IT COULD BE EXTENDED FARTHER EAST IN LATER
FORECAST PACKAGES. ALL OTHER COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING LAKES AND
BAYS, WILL BE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVES WILL PEAK AROUND
8 FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. BY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. DUE TO A HIGH TIDE CYCLE, A LOW
WATER ADVISORY DOESNT SEEM NECESSARY AT THIS TIME, BUT PLEASE
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR CHANGES. BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN, WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH AND WAVES AROUND 4 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL HELP ALLEVIATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE RAIN WILL DROP KBDI VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE RAIN ON SATURDAY STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN TO 30%.
THANKFULLY WITH THE RECENT RAINS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A
CONCERN. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEAK WHILE RH VALUES WILL STEADILY CLIMB.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ027-028-030.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ180-201-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ450.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ455.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ472.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...17
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