729  
FXUS64 KLCH 202354  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
554 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FOR THE 02/21/20 0000 UTC TAF PACKAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MVFR ALL SITES EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH PERIODIC IFR OBSERVED AT  
THE ACADIANA TERMINALS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING TO  
STREAM ACROSS THE I-10 TERMINALS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW  
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING OR SO, WITH  
RAINS ENDING AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARING THE AREA FROM GENERALLY N TO  
S BY LATE EVENING OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BRISK AND GUSTY NORTH  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, AND ONLY GRADUALLY  
DECREASE FROM N TO S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRI.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH  
AXIS APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST OF THE CWA, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR  
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AND RESULT IN SHOWERS  
COMING TO AN END. THIS DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CAN ALREADY  
BE NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS  
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT  
TERM GUIDANCE IS THAT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY 9 PM.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS  
EVENING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF  
LOW DEWPOINTS, LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN  
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR FROST ALONG  
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.  
 
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE  
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST DURING  
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT LEE  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE MONDAY.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE  
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND  
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
MARINE...  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GALE  
FORCE GUSTS BECOMING FREQUENT AFTER 6 PM. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GALE  
WARNING WAS LEFT UNCHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THERE ARE  
SOME INDICATIONS THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY END AFTER SUNRISE  
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING FRIDAY EVENING AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DECREASE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND AND  
RESULT IN MUCH IMPROVED NAVIGATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 30 48 28 56 / 0 0 0 0  
LCH 35 52 33 58 / 10 0 0 0  
LFT 35 51 32 58 / 10 0 0 0  
BPT 37 54 36 58 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ435-450-  
452-455-470-472-475.  
 
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ435-450-452-455-470-  
472-475.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432.  
 

 
 

 
 
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