068
FXUS64 KLCH 041840
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
140 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AND BEFORE HOLIDAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS
- A DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ON SUNDAY. A MARGINAL RISK POTENTIAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OUTLINED NORTHEAST OF A WOODVILLE TO
LAFAYETTE LINE.
- A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4. MAX
AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDOWN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWN POURS, AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS UNTIL
THEY DISSIPATE. IF YOU THUNDER ROAR, THEN GO INDOORS.
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 50H HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND GENERAL WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILE OF SPC DAILY CLIMO TO GO ALONG WITH MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 100H-50H RANGING BETWEEN 60 AND 70
PERCENT. THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR DAILY MAINLY DIURNAL
AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX/MCV INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW NOTED THROUGH 70H WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, AND THIS WILL ALLOW RATHER
STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH EXPECTED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3K
AND 4K J/KG. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO ALLOW
DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE, A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND SPC HAS OUTLINED THE AREA NORTHEAST OF A
WOODVILLE TO LAFAYETTE LINE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OR
BETWEEN A 5 AND 14 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
AS FOR THE HEAT, EXPECTED EXTRA CONVECTION, CLOUDS, AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK SOMEWHAT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
FOR PERIODS AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY IN
THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) RANGE, WHICH MEANS AFFECTS MAY OCCUR
TO THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING
AND HYDRATION.
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ALSO
BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL HELP REDUCE
DAILY PWAT VALUES MAINLY NEAR OR BELOW 1.75 INCHES AND MEAN LAYER
100H-50H RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT. THEREFORE, RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE STATING ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
WITH LESS CONVECTION, EXPECTED A LITTLE MORE HEAT WITH HIGHER
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING HEAT RISK
AT A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK, WHICH MEANS THE HEAT WILL
AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEM AND
INDUSTRIES.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CU AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS. AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITION WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION GOES OVER A
TERMINAL WITH SOME BRIEF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY 05/02Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE MAINLY VFR.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MOISTENING AIRMASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 60 PERCENT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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