793
FXUS64 KLCH 061954
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
254 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEK TO HELP REDUCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EVEN HOTTER AND HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA, AS IT
WILL TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND MAINTAIN THE
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALOFT, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER WTX WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVER THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
THE LATEST WPC ERO FOR TODAY PLACES MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH EXCEPTION TO ALL OF THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND PORTIONS OF THE NEIGHBORING COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. THAT SAID, ANY LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES REPEATED (OR
EVEN ONE HEAVY) SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BE
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION TO TERMINALS IN THE VICINITY OF OR DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PERSISTENT MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAKNESS
ALOFT WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THAT WILL BRING
WETTING RAINS TO A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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