527
FXUS64 KLCH 251230
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR LOWER
ACADIANA AND COASTAL PARISHES.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MORE
ARCTIC TYPE AIR KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
STILL ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM FOR LOCATIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190
IN LOUISIANA.
THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING HANGING JUST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. HOWEVER, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THAT WILL QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO OVERTAKE THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH QUITE THE WARM LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE, PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAINLY LIQUID, ALTHOUGH A QUICK CHANGE TO SLEET OR SNOW FLURRIES
MAY OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS MORE
OF A DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW HELPS COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
SOME. THEREFORE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FREEZING RAIN, AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE CAN GET BEFORE THE MOISTURE
ENDS. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL
BE WHERE THE CURRENT ICE STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP CREATING A QUICK CONVECTIVE BURST OF
FREEZING RAIN.
THE NEXT STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WITH READINGS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON AREA
ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD ALLOWING FOR BLACK ICE.
BARELY REACHING ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE
AS THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES ON IN. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT EXTREMELY COLD AND PIPE BURSTING
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH A
LIGHT FREEZE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WITH AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
BE AROUND WITH THE FRONT AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PROVIDE OVER-
RIDING PRECIP THAT MAY INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW FLURRIES OR
SLEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHISKER PLOTS ON THE
NBM STILL SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPES. AS ALWAYS, PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH
THIS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE FINED TUNED.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
PERIODS OF HEAVY RA MIXED WITH FZRA AND LP ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND INTERIOR SETX. BPT
AND LCH WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
ICE PELLETS WHILE AEX REMAINS MORE PREVAILING WITH FROZEN PRECIP
OR FREEZING RAIN. ACADIANA TERMINAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO DETER ANY FROZEN PRECIP. THAT SAID,
ALL SITES ARE EXPERIENCING VARYING VISIBILITIES DEPENDING ON
PRECIP INTENSITY. LOW CEILING ARE ALSO FOUND TO BE AROUND
500-1000FT, HOWEVER, SOME BKN CEILINGS UNDER 500FT POSSIBLE
THROUGH MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD HAVE PRECIP CLEARING
BEFORE SUNSET.
WORTH NOTING 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION EXTENDS FROM NEAR SURFACE TO 1800FT WHILE SECONDARY
FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 10KFT.
30
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 35 17 34 13 / 100 0 0 0
LCH 43 22 39 20 / 100 0 0 0
LFT 47 23 37 20 / 100 0 0 0
BPT 42 22 41 22 / 90 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ033-
044-045-141>143-241>243.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ515-
516-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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