846  
FXUS64 KLCH 242319  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
619 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FOR THE 25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AND SHOULD  
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION IS THE KAEX TERMINAL  
WERE PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND  
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THAT WILL BRING ABOUT MVFR CONDITIONS.  
 
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER REPEAT WITH DIURNAL AND SEABREEZE DRIVEN  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING, THEN MOVING  
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
RUA  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...  
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE  
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NRN GULF,  
MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANT SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THE  
FORECAST AREA ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE  
MEXICAN PLATEAU ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DESPITE THE  
RIDGE AND WEAK CAPPING NOTED IN MORNING SOUNDINGS, SCATTERED  
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FIRE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DAYTIME  
SEA BREEZE WHICH HAS PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS STARTED FIRING ALONG  
CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR ALONG RESULTANT OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS  
CONVECTION.  
 
THE AREA REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENT PATTERN AS THE WEAK  
RIDGING ALOFT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A  
DIGGING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES/CNTL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS  
ALONG A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE, THEN DRIFT NWD THROUGH THE  
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A RESULTANT OUTFLOW/DEVELOPING SEA  
BREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE  
INITIAL ACTIVITY ALONG RESULTANT OUTFLOWS AS WELL AS TYPICAL  
SUMMERTIME HEATING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR  
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING IS  
PROGGED TO BE VERY SLIM AT BEST.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT POPS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z, LOOK TO INCREASE  
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN ERLY WAVE  
CROSSING THE NRN GULF BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.  
 
HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SEASONAL  
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RUNNING 90F-92F. HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO  
REACH AROUND 105F ACROSS INTERIOR SERN TX BY LATE MORNING EACH OF  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH LOWERING  
DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS COOLING TEMPS UNDER ADDITIONAL CLOUD  
COVER/PRECIP. NO ADVISORIES LOOK NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS WE FAIL TO  
MEET CRITERIA BOTH DAYS.  
 
25  
 
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...  
AN INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY, BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE  
LONG TERM PERIOD. FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH  
ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME  
SHOWER TRIGGERS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER, WITH  
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70-80% EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH  
RAIN RATES ALONG WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS  
SYSTEM. EXCESSIVE RAIN/CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A  
BIT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.  
 
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO TEXAS BY EARLY TUESDAY,  
WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN US IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHT  
HOLD ON THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK,  
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO MORE A MORE TYPICAL 30-60% EACH  
AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE EDGE OF THE  
RIDGE, AS WELL AS HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S, CAN BE EXPECTED EACH  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
17  
 
MARINE...  
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING IN CONTROL, EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT  
WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS TO PERSIST ON THE COASTAL WATERS...NO HEADLINES  
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
25  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 76 93 75 92 / 10 40 20 40  
LCH 79 90 77 90 / 10 40 10 50  
LFT 76 90 75 89 / 20 60 20 60  
BPT 78 90 76 90 / 10 40 10 40  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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