603
FXUS64 KLCH 051935
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
235 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS,
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES INLAND
LOWERING THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND HUMID INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS, DESPITE FEELING QUITE TROPICAL, ARE NEAR
NORMAL TEMP WISE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. WHAT IS
CERTAINLY NOT NEAR NORMAL ARE PWAT VALUES, WHICH REMAIN ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SECONUS, PERSISTENT ESE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NMX WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO WTX
AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT "DELAYED" TODAY; HOWEVER,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SETX AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL LA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WPC
ERO PLACES MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. THAT SAID, ANY LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES REPEATED (OR
EVEN ONE HEAVY) SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE,
LIMITING THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION, EVER
SO SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT.
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BE
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND COASTAL LOUISIANA. NEAR ANY CONVECTION, CONDITIONS MAY
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES TOWARD AND INLAND THE LOUISIANA COAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
KEEP HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THAT WILL BRING WETTING RAINS TO A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO KEEP
THE FIRE DANGER IN CHECK. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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