327
FXUS64 KLCH 232332
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS SOUTHERLY ADVECTION PUMPS
MOIST AIR INLAND
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE POSES INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
A LINE OF WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO FULLY CLEAR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT, BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER
THE GULF WATERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO AN INCREASINGLY IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
SETUP DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND. ALOFT, A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROADER LONGWAVE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, WITH THE LOW
STRETCHING AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
ADVECTING A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH, WITH THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOW LARGELY
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. FORECAST
PWAT VALUES, INSTABILITY, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL; HOWEVER, THE GREATEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR OR EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA FOR
MID TO LATE JANUARY.
CONCURRENT WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE, A STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES AND THE TIMING (AND LOCATION) OF THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN, THOUGH
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CHANGEOVER BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING.
ACCORDINGLY, THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN ICE
STORM WARNING FROM HARDIN THROUGH AVOYELLES PARISHES AND
NORTHWARD. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATION (≥0.01 IN) AND A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF
ACCRETIONS EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES. FARTHER SOUTH, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WHERE
PROBABILITIES SUPPORT A 25 TO 50% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE ICE AND A
20 TO 40% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED, YIELDING WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 13 TO 26°F RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
NOON.
PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN) IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA,
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL ICE ACCRETION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, PARTICULARLY
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. ANY BRIEF WARMING WILL LIKELY
BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL MELTING GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER, WITH REFREEZING EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFT EASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL DRIVE
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE 0 TO 10°F RANGE. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION, PROMOTING DRIER CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL CLEARING. MODEST
DAYTIME WARMING SHOULD IMPROVE ICE MELTING POTENTIAL; HOWEVER,
ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAY
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO MID-20S, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS WE NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, FOLLOWED
BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO REDUCED VIS, OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND MAINLY IFR CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION EXITS EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 34 43 24 34 / 30 100 100 80
LCH 47 54 31 41 / 20 100 100 80
LFT 50 61 37 43 / 20 90 100 90
BPT 48 59 31 42 / 40 100 100 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ027>032.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR LAZ033-044-045-141>143-241>243.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR TXZ515-516-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17
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