275
FXUS64 KLCH 281918
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPS TODAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. EXTREME CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT
WITH EXCESSIVE MOISTURE OVERHEAD. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE EACH DAY WED THROUGH FRI.
- THE ENTIRE CWA IS INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITHIN
THE RAIN COOLED AIR. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND DEVELOPS THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERTOP THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT AND
LOSE ITS STRENGTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS TO SQUEAK OUT
ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA AND INTO CENLA WHERE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND
WHERE THE WEAKNESS IS DEVELOPING.
THIS IS THE PRECURSOR TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TIS THE
SEASON FOR MCS SYSTEMS TO SWIPE THROUGH... SO, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN FURTHER ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT,
GENERATING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH ARE
SHUTTLED ALONG TO THE EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS, EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL FOR THE LAKES REGION INTO CENLA FOR
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LATER TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FOR
THE SAME HAZARDS AND RISK ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH
WEDNESDAY'S RISK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY GONE FROM OVERHEAD
ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO BETTER SWIPE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST REGION
RATHER THAN STAY TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON TO EVENING QLCS SYSTEM WE SEE EVERY
LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. THEY CAN HAVE QUITE A PUNCH AND SO DON'T
LET YOUR GUARD DOWN! STRONG WINDS CAN EASILY TAKE OUT TREES AND
POWER LINES AS WELL AS EMBEDDED TORNADOES CAN BE LIFE
THREATENING. THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WITH EACH WAVE AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND
ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
AND THROUGH THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH
ITS PASSAGE AND 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AS SUCH INCREASING RISK AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE COMING
DOWN THE PIKE HIGHLIGHTING AREAS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING EACH DAY. THE DAY WITH GREATEST RISK WILL BE
FRIDAY AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENLA ARE IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH REMAINING AREAS IN A MARGINAL
RISK. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO COMPOUNDING RAINFALL EFFECTS. SINCE
THE ENTIRE AREA IS STILL WITHIN A HEFTY DROUGHT, MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL GET SOAKED UP OVER THE COMING DAYS. MOIST AIR
MEETING WITH SUCH A POTENT FRONT ON FRIDAY COULD SEE NUISANCE
FLOODING FROM RETAINING PONDS, DITCHES AND COULEES FILLING
QUICKLY.
COOLER CONDITIONS ON RAIN COOLED AIR TAKE OVER IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH A WIDESPREAD COOL AIRMASS FINALLY HERE ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL
DAYS OF MODERATION ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERTOP THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT AND
LOSE ITS STRENGTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS TO SQUEAK OUT
ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA AND INTO CENLA WHERE MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND
WHERE THE WEAKNESS IS DEVELOPING.
NOT MUCH WILL AMOUNT FROM THESE SHOWERS AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR AT THE SFC.
WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEATHER DISTURBANCE
TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN.
STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TO
TOWARDS CENLA LATE TONIGHT AND COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AEX. THE CHANCE
OF THIS IS LOW AND SO ONLY PROB30 CARRIES MENTION OF THIS
SCENARIO FROM JUST AFTER 06Z TO 10Z.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
LOW SEAS AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE ONGOING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEAS AND WINDS WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SERIES
OF PASSING DISTURBANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS SEAS INCREASE LARGELY
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN OFFSHORE AND INCREASE LATE FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN FURTHER SEA INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
BREEZY, HUMID AND ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THEREAFTER ON WEDNESDAY THRU
EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROLLING
ACROSS THE REGION IN ATTENDANCE TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING
TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN TOTALS WILL INCREASE WITH EACH WAVE, AND
A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGHER LOCAL TOTALS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE PASSING
FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11
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