495
FXUS64 KLCH 300405
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, ENDING THE
HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE STORM THREAT.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
THE NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
AFTER A VERY INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER ACADIANA,
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ACADIA OVER RAYNE WHERE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, RADAR SHOWS MOST RAINFALL HAS ENDED. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
LEFT OVER VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAY WHERE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION REMAIN. THE MAIN UPDATE WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG, BOTH MARINE AND INLAND, EXPECTED TO FORM
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ISSUED
FOR THE COASTAL LAKES, BAYS, AND MARINE ZONES OUT 20 NAUTICAL
MILES FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT, AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CURRENTLY SEEING A LARGE CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN PARTS OF ACADIANA, CAUSING SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS ALONG THE
WAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE DENSE AT TIMES. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER
THIS EVENING - STAY TUNED!
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA, BECOMING A MARGINAL THREAT ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
NORTH LOUISIANA, EXTENDING ALL THE WAY UP TO OHIO.
A COLD FRONT WILL END THE RAIN CHANCES AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, BUT I AM NOT SEEING A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT - HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM - CONTINUING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MAINLY IN
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY FURTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER
MAKER LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO BRING LIFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS TO
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA FROM 09-14Z. FOR AEX/LFT/ARA, EXPECT MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BY 15Z SUNDAY,
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICK UP 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS. NEXT AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO APPROACH AEX BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD, BUT LIKELY BEYOND THE 24 HOUR RANGE AT THIS POINT.
08/DML
MARINE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES, BAYS,
AND COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTH
LATE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATER DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 85 66 81 / 0 10 80 30
LCH 67 81 69 84 / 0 10 30 20
LFT 69 84 71 84 / 40 20 50 40
BPT 67 82 69 86 / 0 10 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ201-261-
262-515-516-615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08
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