010
FXUS64 KLCH 061524
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1024 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED FOR TODAY.
- THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FROM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY
- FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT OF 3-8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 10-12 INCHES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SEEING ELEVATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY STARTING TO DEVELOP AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME STARTS
PUSHING THE OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST INLAND.
FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THESE CELLS MAY PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL. THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA HELPING INCREASE LIFT AND SHEAR WITH
THE TORNADO THREAT INCREASING RIGHT ALONG WHERE SHORT WAVE WILL
INTERSECT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
RUA
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY ESPECIALLY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE
NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. IT HAS HANDLED THE ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
BETTER. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY MAKING IT TO NEAR THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THERE WILL BE GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND TO THE SOUTH. SPC HAS INCLUDED AN ENHANCED AREA IN
EAST TEXAS FOR THE TORNADO RISK NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE
SLIGHT RISK WAS ALSO EXPANDED EASTWARD AS WELL TO INCLUDE ALL THE
AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
ENHANCED RISK LOOKING AT THE HREF DATA. IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE DATA IS STILL
INDICATING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS
SO AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH AS IS, HOWEVER AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK WEDNESDAY IF
TRENDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN DOES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS AREA BEING THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OVERLAP THIS REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY TAKING THE MORE
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WITH IT, THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FRIDAY BUT NOT
NEARLY AS ROBUST RAINFALL RATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO GO
DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY TODAY THAN
PREVIOUS CYCLES AND BY SUNDAY NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAKE
UP MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH LOWER CIGS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS WELL FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TODAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY ALONG WITH WINDS.
AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUE. WE EXPECT THE LOW
TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FORECASTS THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER NECHES,
THE SABINE RIVER BASIN, LOWER CALCASIEU, MERMENTAU AND NOW
INCLUDES THE VERMILION RIVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 75 65 81 63 / 90 80 60 40
LCH 82 70 79 67 / 80 70 80 70
LFT 82 70 79 68 / 80 80 90 70
BPT 82 71 81 68 / 80 70 80 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...27
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