493
FXUS64 KLCH 120447
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022
AVIATION
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS CONTINUE ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS EVE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR
STORMS TO REDEVELOP DRG THE LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HOURS. SOME
LCTNS TAF SITES TO BECM MVFR/IFR DUE TO CEILINGS... VSBY... WINDS
VRB15G25KT NEAR AND WITHIN STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 945 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022/
UPDATE...
ISOLATED STORMS WERE NOTED DOWN ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE SABINE
CHANNEL WITH A FEW IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND WESTERN CAMERON
PARISH. LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS
WILL EXIST IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. LOW CEILINGS TOWARDS SUNRISE
DOWN ALONG THE COAST WITH AREAS OF BR ARCS SE TX AND SRN LA.
OTHERWISE... WE ARE IN A PERSISTENT WET PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE SATURDAY BEFORE POPS START BACKING OFF.
FOR THOSE THAT ARE WONDERING WHEN TEMPS WILL DROP AFTER THE SUMMER
SOLSTICE. WELL THAT HAPPEN TODAY FOR AEX WERE 30 YEAR MRNG TEMPS
DROP FM 73 TO 72 DEGREES. LAKE CHARLES WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW MRNG WITH
30 CLIMO MRNG TEMPS DROP FM 76 DEGREES DOWN TO 75 DEGREES. BEAUMONT
TEXAS WILL SEE THEIR AFTN MAX TEMP DROP FM 94 DOWN TO 93 DEGREES
ON THE 14TH. LFT WILL SEE THEIR AFTN TEMPS DROP FM 93 TO 92 ON THE
18TH. I KNOW IT IS NOT MUCH AND BY THE END OF THE MONTH WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO DROP BUT EVERYTHING HAS TO START SOMEWHERE.
ON TO FALL...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022/
AVIATION...
PRECIP IS ON THE WANE THIS EVE AS STORMS MOVE INTO AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN OVER WORKED TODAY. EXPECTING TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS THRU
SR ALONG WITH SOME LOW CEILINGS AND BR AFTR MIDNIGHT AND THRU
SUNRISE. TMRW WILL BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY W/ STORMS DEVELOPING
MAINLY DRG THE AFTN HRS ENDING BY THE EARLY EVE HRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022/
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS, AND VERY LITTLE INHIBITION, HAS ALLOWED
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE INVERTED TROUGH. HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS UNTIL ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.
THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
AREA IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LITTLE INHIBITION
ALOFT AND THEREFORE, ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.
PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES, WITH 2.25
PLUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OUT OF 4) POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OUTLINED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWN POURS
WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA
STREET FLOODING.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INTO TEXAS. SOME DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES, HOWEVER FOR
SATURDAY, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE FOR ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING DECENT RAIN CHANCES
FROM AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
RUA
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE NW GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. A DRIER AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION, WITH PWATS
FALLING FROM NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW 2 INCHES EARLY SUNDAY TO ROUGHLY
1.5-1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DIURNALLY FORCED SCATTERED
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LOWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND BACK UP INTO THE 90S EACH
AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM ~90/LOWER 90S ACROSS ACADIANA WHERE SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL RESUME WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS TO RETROGRADE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS, CARVING A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALSO SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE 2
INCHES BY THURSDAY AND, COMBINED WITH LIMITED CAPPING AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY, WILL BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS LA TO THE LOWER 90S
IN SE TX.
24
MARINE...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING DOWN INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
STALL WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE.
THEREFORE, MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO
MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE
IN THE COASTAL WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 91 74 93 / 30 50 20 40
LCH 72 88 73 88 / 50 80 30 80
LFT 74 87 74 89 / 40 80 20 80
BPT 74 90 74 90 / 50 80 50 80
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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