277
FXUS64 KLCH 050003
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
703 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND TROPICAL WAVE ALL MERGE INTO A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS
DRIER PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
- THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EMERGES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THANKS TO AN EXCEPTIONALLY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS, THE LATEST 18Z
SOUNDING MEASURED WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAILY RECORD PWAT OF
2.56 INCHES. DESPITE THE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH PWAT, WEAK FORCING IS
KEEPING US FROM SEEING MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A FEW COASTAL
COUNTIES AND PARISHES HAVE SEEN HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND MODEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ALTHOUGH TOTALS REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY TAPERS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA IS FORECAST TO BE
PUSHED OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD, THEN EASTWARD, ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE GULF WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY.
GOING INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE EMERGE FROM THE BOC AND SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO GET
INTO DETAILS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY IS CURRENTLY
BEING MONITORED LOCALLY AND BY NHC, WHICH IS GIVING IT A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME WEAK
DEVELOPMENT BECOMING LIKELY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF, WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER GULF COAST. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, IT IS LIKELY TO BE OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. AFTERNOON HIGHS, ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL,
WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION DECREASE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MVFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE RAINS WILL TEND TO EASE
OFF ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MVFR CIGS AT KAEX ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. ELSEWHERE, A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT INTO VFR AT
KBPT AND KLCH MON AFTERNOON, AND AT THE ACADIANA TERMINALS NEAR OR
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR TODAY, WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS
2-5 FEET ARE ANTICIPATED, AND SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING
TODAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. MODEST
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN INCREASE TO
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE REGIME, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT A LOW WATER ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED, BUT THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, WITH MINRH DROPPING FROM THE 70S DOWN TO THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 60S RANGE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...13
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