030
FXUS64 KLCH 240458
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING (MEMORIAL DAY). IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE VERY WET PATTERN
CONTINUES.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TODAY LED TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION,
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS
MORNING, A STRONGER THAN EXPECTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAUSED
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS, WITH MULTIPLE WIND DAMAGE REPORTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT, WE CAN EXPECT
A BIT OF A BREAK AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PROVIDED THE EXTRA
ASCENT THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS BREAK WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS OUR OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED.
ALOFT, A SLOW-MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SITTING OVER EAST TEXAS
AND IS THE REASON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EJECTED
OVER THE GULF COAST OVER THE COMING DAYS. THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PROVIDE THE BROAD ASCENT NEEDED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE WARM,
MOIST GULF AIR NORTH, KEEPING OUR PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ALOFT WINDS AT 850MB WILL
ALSO BE SOUTHERLY KEEPING THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER (AROUND 14 KFT), LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND SATURATED
PROFILES. EACH OF THESE FACTORS POINTS TO MORE HEAVY RAIN IN THE
COMING DAYS, AND WITH THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE SOIL
SATURATION WILL START TO BECOME A CONCERN. USING THE ULM MESONET,
SITES IN OUR CWA ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOIL SATURATION VALUES UP TO
40%, WHICH IS THE TIPPING POINT WHERE THE GROUND IS LESS ABLE TO
ABSORB RUNOFF. WITH THESE FACTORS IN OUR FORECAST, THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. THE WPC HAS
PLACED US UNDER EITHER A SLIGHT OR MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN, OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
UNFORTUNATELY, OUR DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-70S,
LEADING TO VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET AND HUMID.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR WITH CEILINGS BOUNDING
BETWEEN THE TWO. AFTER SUNRISE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE TO AIRPORTS ALONG I-10. NEAR CONVECTION CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOW CEILINGS, AND LOW
VISIBILITY.
AWAY FROM CONVECTION WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC, LEADING TO BROAD SOUTHERN
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. ASCAT DATA VERIFIES THIS, SHOWING A LONG
FETCH OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUOYS SHOW WAVES
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED DAILY BY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, LEADING TO SATURATED SOILS AND FUELS. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 60 TO 70% THIS WEEK WITH
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AT 100%. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FORECAST.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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