348
FXUS64 KLCH 131120
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST, W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING UP THROUGH ABOUT
825MB PER THE KLCH 00Z RAOB. GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A
PLUME OF DEEP MSTR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE,
WITH PWATS OF 2+ INCHES ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. ALOFT, UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS SE TX AND THE NW
GULF WATERS WITHIN THE DEEP MSTR POOL, AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. STILL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
THAT WILL DENT THE ONGOING DROUGHT VERY MUCH, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES RESIDE OVER AREAS THAT SAW THE RAINS
BROUGHT BY EDOUARD, BUT SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH
OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE UPTICK IN CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION WILL MODERATE HIGHS A BIT TOMORROW ACROSS SE TX
AND INTO SW LA, WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL LA BAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
TUE NIGHT INTO WED, THE SFC RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND WESTWARD,
SHUNTING THE MSTR PLUME OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AREAWIDE. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE NUDGED OFF TO THE EAST ON
THU BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A DRY
CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI, BRINGING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN GUIDANCE TO
CONTEND WITH IN TERMS OF JUST HOW COOL IT WILL GET, BUT CURRENT NBM
PROGS SHOW HIGHS AROUND 80 BY SAT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE SUN
MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX
AND SW LA LATER LATER THIS MORNING, OCCASIONALLY PASSING
NEAR/OVER BPT AND LCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AEX MAY SEE SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION SPREAD NORTH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT
CHANCES ARE A BIT LESS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION. AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS, WITH MORE MODEST EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR GALE WARNINGS. THESE WINDS WILL
EASE SATURDAY, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE
NEEDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NO BIG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND LIGHT
TO MODEST SOUTH WINDS. THAT WILL CHANGE THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, AS
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...13
AVIATION...17
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