411
FXUS64 KLCH 301138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HUMID AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.
LOCALLY, SLACK SURFACE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AND IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER ENHANCE INVERSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL.
SURPRISINGLY, RECENT 30TH/00Z WAS STILL QUITE SATURATED, WITH
PWATS ALMOST TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 1.82". HOWEVER, RIDGING IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GREATLY MITIGATE EVEN
ISOLATED CELLS. THOUGH, AS WE ARE ENTERING A TYPICAL ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUMMER, A STRAY ISOLATED POP UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOONS OR EARLY EVENINGS REMAIN PLAUSIBLE.
THE REAL STORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE INCREASED WARMTH
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CAUSE RIDGING TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE DEEP SOUTH REMAINS
IN ITS USUAL MORE HUMID SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THIS BARRIER OF
DRY CONTINENTAL AND SUBTROPICAL MOIST AIR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTH FORECAST AREA AND MEANDER OVER THE
SECONUS. THAT SAID, SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST CITIES, THOUGH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE
EVENING. WARMER WEATHER PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK MONDAY
WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ARE SLATED ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
CHANCES OF RAIN DO TICK UP TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOWERS TOWARD THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ELONGATING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SW ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS. OVERALL QPF REMAINS UNDER A QUARTER INCH FOR THE
REGION, THOUGH ANY SLOW MOVING CELL COULD QUICKLY OVER ACHIEVE IN
SOME BACKYARDS.
HEREAFTER, THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH RESPECT TO
MOISTURE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
CYCLES FOR WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST EACH DAY. HOWEVER,
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES QUITE CHAOTIC, ALMOST RESEMBLING
AN OMEGA BLOCK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. OFTEN TIMES, THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS SETUP TO
WHERE ONE REGION FAVORS DRY WEATHER WHILE ANOTHER FAVORS MORE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, IN THIS SCENARIO, THE FLOW CONTAINS MANY
PERTURBATIONS SUGGESTING HIGHER VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SCATTERED
CHANCES OF RAINFALL / SKY COVER, TEMPERATURES TREND IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90F NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG BRINGING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES TO BPT
AND LCH WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF FOG
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. LEFT FOG OUT OF THE LFT/ARA TAFS FOR NOW
AS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN THIS REGION.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY
ALLOW THIN PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP EACH MORNING. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY DECREASING
RAINFALL COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AT BEST. DIURNAL SCATTERED CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...64
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