871
FXUS64 KLCH 291735
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED EARLY THIS
WEEK CAUSING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, HURRICANE POLO HAS
MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL OF TODAY AND IS NOW IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND WILL SOON CAUSE OUR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY, OUR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, THOUGH WITH THE ADDITION OF A FEW
MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS THE SOUTHERN FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED, THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND IS FORECASTED TO BE NEAR THE OK/TX
BORDER BY WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL INCREASE AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE OUR MOISTURE
VALUES TO SKYROCKET, WITH IVT AND PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PWAT VALUES WILL BE
ESPECIALLY HIGH, EVEN FOR THE GULF COAST, WITH MEAN VALUES FROM
THE LREF AROUND 2.3 INCHES; EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE SHOWS VALUES
ABOVE 2 INCHES. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN,
WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THIS WETTING RAIN WILL BE WELCOME, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
DEALING WITH DROUGHT, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXPERIENCING OVERCAST, WARM, AND WET WEATHER.
THE WPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK FOR
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, ANOTHER
ERO WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST, AS WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STUBBORNLY HIGH, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP OUR
HIGHS INTO THE 80S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
AN INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT FOR COASTAL WATERS. AS THE CUT-OFF LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE, MAKING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INCREASINGLY LIKELY. WITH THE INCREASED WINDS ON
THURSDAY, COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL
IMPACT COASTAL WATERS, REDUCING VISIBILITY AND CAUSING LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AND WILL HELP
REDUCE FIRE DANGER AS WE MOVE INTO OCTOBER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...56
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