564
FXUS64 KLCH 031738
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLE DENSE FOG EACH
NIGHT THIS WEEK.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
- MODEST RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED WET
PATTERN TRENDING INTO THIS WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO PUSH WARM, MOIST GULF AIR
INTO OUR REGION WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. WITH BOTH OF THESE FACTORS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM. OVERNIGHT THERE IS A
GOOD SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS, LIGHT WINDS, AND A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALL SUPPORTING
DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE FOG
BEYOND THE COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE DEW POINTS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. BY FRIDAY, A
FRONT WILL BE DRAPED NORTH OF OUR AREA AND OUR SOUTHERN WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. WITH THE BEST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF US, WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT RAINFALL WILL BE SPORADIC
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY
CLIMB WITH PWATS IN THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE, WITH VALUES
EXPECTED BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES. WITH THE BOUNDARY STILL
STALLED TO THE NORTH OF US, WARM, MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW
INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE NORTH OF US, ANY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. EVEN WITHOUT THE
LIFT FROM THE FRONT, DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR OUR REGION, BUT IF
YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST CAREFULLY.
BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE US WHILE A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS SETUP, IF IT SHOULD FORM, WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
MORE STORMS NEXT WEEK, AND SOME LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS POINTING
TOWARDS STRONG STORMS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
LOW CIGS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN WITH AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF LFT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
MVFR WITH BORDERLINE VFR UNTIL AROUND 20Z WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VFR. OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE A CONCERN WITH IFR IMPACTS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS. BUOYS SHOW WAVES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET. OVERALL, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG EACH NIGHT, WITH MODELS SHOWING
VISIBILITY BELOW 1 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING
UNTIL 9 AM. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT EACH NIGHT UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
SOUTHERN WINDS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES ON THE HIGH SIDE, WITH
MINRH VALUES STAYING ABOVE 50 THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED, AROUND 10 MPH, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH
WETTING RAINS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 84 62 83 / 0 20 0 10
LCH 65 80 64 80 / 0 10 0 10
LFT 66 81 64 82 / 0 30 0 10
BPT 65 80 65 80 / 0 10 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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