605
FXUS64 KLCH 201930
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
230 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, COOL AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT EAST WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP THE TX COAST. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE PICTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH RIDGING GENERALLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW IS QUITE DRY, WITH RESULTING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 0.3
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL LA TO 0.7 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TX. THE 18Z
KLCH SOUNDING REPORTED A PWAT OF 0.40 INCHES, WHICH IS BELOW 10TH
PERCENTILE AND APPROACHING DAILY MINIMA PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ENTERING OUR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THESE AREAS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, NOT MUCH OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND,
BUT A FEW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. INTRODUCED SOME LOW END POPS
TO SOUTHEAST TX FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY, BUT WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
FROM THESE. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA-
WIDE.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WHICH WILL TURN FLOW MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES
(90TH PERCENTILE) WEST OF I-49. ACCORDINGLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR SOUTHEAST TX AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST LA WEDNESDAY WHERE THIS
GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE DUE TO CONTINUED SURFACE
RIDGING AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION, WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND KEEP
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RELATIVELY LOW.
THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDWEEK,
KEEPING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AS A FEW MORE
UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING EACH AFTERNOON
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON A
WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 25000FT
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT, WINDS RELAX WHILE
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO FILL IN, BECOMING OVERCAST BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL CAUSE FLOW
TO BEGIN ACQUIRING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AS WELL AS INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THIS DISTURBANCE WEAKENS
AFTER WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE CWA, WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED AROUND 25 TO 40 PERCENT.
HOWEVER, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIMIT ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...17
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