325
FXUS64 KLCH 050852
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
252 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2021
DISCUSSION
WX MAP SHOWS SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TEXAS, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR BEGINNING
TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE SURFACE LOW, ALONG WITH IT ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
FROM TX/OK, WILL ALL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION, INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE AREA. EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, A RETURN TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE ARKLATEX
MAY GIVE VERY LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BUT WITH EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT, LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DML
MARINE
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH TEXAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
ISSUED FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM SATURDAY FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES, WITH
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE 0-20NM ZONES DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT
AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DML
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 46 64 40 / 40 40 0 0
LCH 69 50 66 44 / 40 50 0 0
LFT 70 50 66 42 / 30 50 0 0
BPT 68 51 67 46 / 40 40 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-
472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455.
PUBLIC...08
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