973
FXUS64 KLCH 051753
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
YESTERDAY LAFAYETTE SAW RECORD RAINFALL, WITH LFT REPORTING 4.87
INCHES! LOOKING FORWARD TO THE FORECAST, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. ALOFT, UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST, AND WE NOW HAVE MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH THE WEAKER SUPPORT, RH VALUES AT THE
LOW AND MID-LEVELS ARE BOTH WELL ABOVE 80%. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
ALSO SHOWS WEAK UPSLOPE ASCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, UNTIL THE FRONT IN THE GULF "WASHES OUT" AND DRY
AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. BY SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW
(~10%) WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DURING THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO PULL MORE GULF AIR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE INTO THE MID-60S ON SUNDAY, AND IT WILL FEEL ALMOST MUGGY
ACROSS THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
TO START THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT MUCH CALMER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE THING THAT WON'T BE
CALM ARE THE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE
RAPIDLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM PASSING COLD FRONTS
DUELS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF. TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ROLLERCOASTER WE WILL BE GOING ON, WE WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT IN
SE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA (75%) WITH LOW- END CHANCES ALONG
I-10 (~30%). BUT BY THURSDAY, LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL SIMILARLY SWING, AND WE EXPECT
HIGHS NEXT WEEK TO GO FROM THE MID-50S TO LOW 70S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL STAY CONSISTENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST, WITH PWATS STAYING
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN EVENT COMING ON FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN THAT FAR OUT IS LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
DENSE OVERCAST SKIES HAS OUR CEILINGS BORDERING BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WE DO HAVE VCSH UNTIL 06Z AS SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE REGION. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AS DRY AIR
FILTERS IN AND CLEARS OUT THE CLOUD DECK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
WINDS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH LOW WATER LEVELS (-1.0 FT BELOW MLLW) AT
BULK TERMINALS AND WATERWAYS. RECENT ASCAT AND ALTIMETER PASSES
SHOW WINDS AND SEAS ARE NEAR EXPECTED CONDITIONS, SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACTFUL
WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
COAST, CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAIN, THERE ARE NO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 48 38 60 47 / 10 10 10 10
LCH 50 44 64 53 / 30 30 20 10
LFT 50 44 62 52 / 40 40 40 10
BPT 52 44 66 54 / 30 20 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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