160
FXUS64 KLCH 171228
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
728 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND/OR MONDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY SYSTEM.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A FEW ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION AND/OR
NOCTURNAL JET FEATURE OFF THE SURFACE. RAINFALL SHOULDN'T BE
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE COLUMN IS, BUT
PERHAPS A SQUEEZE OF DRIZZLE MAY REACH THE GROUND IN TYLER/JASPER
COUNTY BY SUNRISE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE WILL SEE A TRANSITIONARY PERIOD BETWEEN THE
DRY, HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WE'VE HAD AND ANOTHER SEVERAL-DAY
RAINFEST. A SERIES OF SMALL BUT MIGHTY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWINGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE SHUNTING STANDING RIDGE TO THE EAST. WHILE
THE HIGH MOVES EAST, A RATHER ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE /
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET TO DEVELOP FROM CENTX, NORTHWARD FROM NOW
UNTIL IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US EARLY THIS WEEK. UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION, A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED WINDS AND MOISTURE FLUX.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY DURING DAYTIME MIXING PERIODS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE FREQUENT GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OR
HIGHER, SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE NECESSARY 20
MPH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. EVEN SO, SPEEDS AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF ISSUANCE. BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY
ARRIVES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF, RIDGING WILL BE VERY LAX AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT DISSIPATED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL MARGINALLY INCREASE FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY.
FALLING HEIGHTS OVERHEAD AND INCREASING MOISTURE COULD GENERATE A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY. THE FIRST
BIG RETURN OF RAINFALL COULD BE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK
TROUGH PASSES NEAR THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS WILL LARGELY INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND LINGERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER.
VICINITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SOUTH
WINDS GUST UP TO 18-25KTS. CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS FROM NOW THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING AND EDGING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US. WESTERN WATERS
AREA ALREADY SEEING THE INCREASE IN WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SET IN. EXPECT WATERS FROM PECAN
ISLAND WEST TO REMAIN IN A HAZARDOUS STATE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. ELSEWHERE, EXERCISE CAUTION.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AROUND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTHEAST US. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US. IN
RESPONSE, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON THESE ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
BUT A WIDESPREAD COVERING NOR HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SHARPLY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN VERY ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470-
472.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...30
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