662
FXUS64 KLCH 160546
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN TODAY. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD POSE A FLOOD
RISK.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX TOWARDS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NE MEXICO, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE IS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST FROM NEAR GALVESTON TO ACADIANA.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN THE CATALYST DRIVING TONIGHT'S ONGOING
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO TRAIN IN A GENERAL WEST TO EAST MOTION
ACROSS COASTAL SE TX AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WHILE MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION IS SIMPLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, THERE ARE POCKETS
OF HEAVIER SHOWERS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-3" AN HOUR. SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SAME TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WITH AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
LIKELY TO OCCUR AS WE NEAR THE 4-6AM TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER, A
COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD (PWAT
OF 2.28" ON THE LCH SOUNDING THIS EVENING) AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
NEARBY BOUNDARY/BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF TODAY. THIS SET UP WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WHICH, ALONG WITH LIKELY TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS, COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS AGAIN OUTLINED THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY (EXCLUDING INTERIOR SE TX WHICH IS IN THE SLIGHT
RISK). IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT TODAY, SPC HAS OUTLINED A
REGION FROM NEAR SABINE LAKE TOWARDS ST LANDRY PARISH IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH BRIEF,
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY DISSIPATES HOWEVER,
WE TURN OUR ATTENTION THE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NE MEXICO.
THIS LOW AND THE AREA OUTLINED BY THE NHC WITH A 50% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ARE ONE IN THE SAME, AND REGARDLESS OF WHAT, IF
ANYTHING, DOES BECOME OF IT, IT WILL BE THE NEXT BIT OF 'FUEL' FOR
THIS WEEKS PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. TOMORROW THROUGH
THURSDAY, THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE TX COAST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE LA/MS
REGION. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH IT, LEADING TO FURTHER HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING ISSUES THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. TOMORROW, WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOMEWHAT OF A DIP IN RAINFALL TOTALS HOWEVER, IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE WILL BE DRY BY ANY MEANS. RATHER, SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOK TO BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
STAYING OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER, THE LOW
WILL BE NEARBY OR OVERHEAD, ALLOWING THE SLUG OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TO MOVE INLAND WITH IT. WHICH AREAS ACTUALLY SEE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW AND WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS OUT OF
IT. FOR NOW, WPC CONTINUES TO OUTLINE BOTH A MODERATE AND SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY, WITH THE LARGER THREAT COMING
THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW AND THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE THEY WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MEANDERING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SAME TIME.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR US, THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ONCE AGAIN STALL OUT, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FINALLY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER, WHICH WILL BE
A NICE BREAK FROM THE RAIN BUT IT WILL MEAN A RETURN OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE NEAR SUNRISE. THEREAFTER,
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, TAPERING DOWN
SOMEWHAT AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TODAY'S
CONVECTION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS, REDUCTIONS IN VIS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME DUE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
INCREASING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RIDE UP ALONG THE TX COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SCA
(AT A MINIMUM) OR EVEN GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS AND EXTREMELY MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED PAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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