930
FXUS64 KLCH 191731
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1131 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TOMORROW WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
MAY DIP BRIEFLY TO FREEZING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK COASTAL LOW
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN A HALF INCH
AND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ABOVE THIS COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING AGAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHILE THE ENTIRE REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A
FAIRLY LIGHT, STRATIFORM RAIN WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, THUNDER
WHICH WILL BE PERFECT FOR GIVING THE SOIL AND IT'S RESIDENT FLORA A
MUCH NEEDED DRINK AS THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONTINUES. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH QPF TOTALS OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WPC HAS REMOVED THE AREA FROM IT'S PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED MARGINAL RISK AS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS
EVENT REMAINS VERY LOW.
JONES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY. THE BIGGER STORY
WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG, BUT VERY SHALLOW,
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE LEFT
OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE A
NEARLY 25 DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS INDIVIDUAL MODELS, THE PROBABILITIES
OF FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN AN ICE STORM ARE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE LATEST
NBM WHICH PAINTS 0.1 TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HISTORICALLY, SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY
LIFE BEGIN AT 0.1 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. KEEP IN MIND THAT WHILE
THIS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS RANGING FROM NO ICE AT ALL TO OVER A QUARTER
INCH. THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IS YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AEX
AND NEARBY ESF HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE LIKELY DUE TO SMOKE FROM
NEARBY PRESCRIBED BURNING. EXPECT SOME VARIATIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE
TO THIS SMOKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SMOKE LIKELY
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST
BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20-30%
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERNS, BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND BRINGING MINIMUM RH VALUES UP. A
COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 30 58 42 59 / 0 0 10 70
LCH 38 62 50 66 / 0 0 10 70
LFT 36 63 47 68 / 0 0 0 50
BPT 41 64 51 68 / 0 0 10 80
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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