317
FXUS64 KLCH 290530
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
EXCESSIVE MOISTURE OVERHEAD. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH A MRGL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI.
- THE ENTIRE CWA IS INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY WITHIN THE RAIN
COOLED AIR. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE ARK-LA-
TEX REGION, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR FL. ALOFT, TROUGHING IS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE RIDGING IS OVER MEXICO/THE GULF
COAST, WITH A ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS AND PARTS OF EAST TEXAS
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT BECOME AN ISSUE FOR US TONIGHT, SOME CAMS
GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD, WITH MORNING LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S AS WE NEAR SUNRISE.
TODAY, UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF/MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
RETREAT SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF CANADA AND TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKE REGION, ALLOWING LARGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO
BEGIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE E CONUS AS WELL AS A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO PASS OVERHEAD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON A
SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TREK, MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FROM THERE IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MEANDER SOUTHWARD, MAKING ITS WAY TO THE COAST THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY STALL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
A COMBINATION OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT, A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND
AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS (PWATS REACHING WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE) WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST OF THESE, ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT,
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE ENTIRE CWA
OUTLINED WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK BY SPC, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS FIRST EVENT
WILL PLAY OUT FOR OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THOSE OF US ALONG/SOUTH OF I-
10, WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOKING TO SET UP GENERALLY ACROSS A WEST
TO EAST CORRIDOR A BIT FURTHER INLAND. REGARDLESS, THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY, BEGINNING
BY THE MID-AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. THEREAFTER,
CONVECTION CONTINUES BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BEGINS TO TAPER
DOWN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.
APART FROM THE SEVERE, THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S STORMS WILL ALSO
BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE ENTIRE REGION APART FROM LOWER
ACADIANA OUTLINED WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A VERY MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD WILL
ALLOW ANY CONVECTION TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. GENERALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
0.5-1" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPER DOWN A BIT THEREFORE, FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ISSUE.
FRIDAY BRINGS THE 'GRAND FINALE' IN THE TRAIN OF WET DAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TOWARDS THE ARK-LA-
TEX, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS OUTLINED ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM 1-2" (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) FOR ROUGHLY A 24 HOUR PERIOD
FROM 12Z FRI TO 12Z SAT. IN ADDITION TO A VERY WET DAY, OVERCAST
SKIES AND THE BEGINNING OF SOME POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL LEAD TO
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE MONTH OF MAY. NBM NOW
HAS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10 AND MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG/SOUTH OF IT.
FINALLY, A DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONT GETS SHUNTED EAST/SOUTHEAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ALOFT, TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE E CONUS ALLOWING A
DRY NWRLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR/ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WHILE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT AEX PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS WELL, BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE
LOW. AFTER SUNRISE, CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MID-MORNING,
EXCEPT AT AEX WHERE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION BY THE
LATER PART OF THE PERIOD, MAINLY AFFECTING AEX BUT POSSIBLY
CAUSING ISSUES AT THE I-10 TERMINALS AS WELL. GUIDANCE IS RATHER
MESSY ON WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER, TIMING IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH SEAS AROUND 1-4 FEET. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WED
THROUGH SAT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STALLED
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEHIND SAID FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AND AN EXTREMELY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS OFFSHORE AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN THROUGHOUT SATURDAY LEADING TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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