199
FXUS64 KLCH 221145
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO MILD AND SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES.
- COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS SHIFTING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COOL FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX
FROM SOUTH MO TO SOUTH TX, WHILE ZONAL FLOW IS ONGOING ALOFT. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST/SOUTHEAST TODAY, MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM MOIST AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL SHIFT
NW/N AND ADVECT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT, WHICH WHILE STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE IS AN IMPROVEMENT FROM THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HANGS AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS TURN BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY
MORNING, SAID FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS OK/CENTRAL TX, WITH A
WARM FROM LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. AS THIS FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY IT WILL FURTHER OPEN THE
DOOR FOR MOISTURE RETURN, WITH PWATS PROGGED TO SURGE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER, WITH RAIN CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS AN
ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORM APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP, WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS IT DOES SO. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT, OVERRUNNING
STRATIFORM RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO LINGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRIER AIR IS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS, AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NBM KEEPS SMALL
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS FINALLY ARRIVING BY THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WHILE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FINALLY BY THANKSGIVING DAY
AND BEYOND WE CAN EXPECT MUCH MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S, AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, AREAS OF FG TRANSITIONING TO BR
WILL TAKE PLACE. VIS / CIGS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND. VFR CONDITIONS TO
TAKE PLACE LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WEATHER CLEARS
OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT NW BREEZES.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 48 72 50 / 10 0 0 0
LCH 82 54 75 58 / 20 0 0 0
LFT 82 53 76 55 / 30 0 0 0
BPT 82 55 77 60 / 20 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30
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