086
FXUS64 KLCH 201130
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-10 AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY
- TEMPERATURES WILL START TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE NEAR
ZERO FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALOFT, A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION AS IT PROGRESSES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS REMAINS ROBUST, WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND PWATS
NEAR 2 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE). WPC HAS PLACED
AREAS NORTH OF I-10 UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND SOUTH
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4). THE CAMS SHOW A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE COAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURST,
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DCAPE VALUES AROUND 900. A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR TOMORROW WILL BE LOW SHEAR VALUES; WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR BELOW 25 KNOTS, WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY. INSTEAD, ANY LINE THAT FORMS WILL MAINLY BE OUTFLOW-
DRIVEN.
BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AND WASH OUT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE IN THE FORECAST BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS, SITTING AROUND 30%.
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP OUR WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID-90S. THIS COMBINATION WILL PUT THE HEAT INDEX WELL INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS, AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. CAMS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AROUND 14Z FOR
AEX AND MOVING SOUTH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM
CONVECTION, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE UP ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-MORNING AT AEX AND BY MID-DAY ELSEWHERE. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAUSING
REDUCTIONS IN VIS AS THEY PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW DUE TO ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND HIGH
HUMIDITY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page