783  
FXUS64 KLCH 181751  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY FILTER GULF MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER AS SCATTERED STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.  
 
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW LEADING TO MILD HIGHS FOLLOWED BY COOL LOWS SUNDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
 
- MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK  
WEEK AHEAD AS A HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND REMAIN IN  
JUST EAST OF THE REGION.  
 
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
AS OF 18Z (1 PM CT), WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE  
TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY  
CONCENTRATED IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP A BIT BEFORE WE SEE A LULL IN  
ACTIVITY LATER IN THE EVENING.  
 
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WITH AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT  
STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THERE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. A LINE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS AHEAD OF THAT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LINE  
MOVING INTO OUR INTERIOR SETX ZONES BY 03Z, THEN CLEARING LOWER  
ACADIANA SOMETIME AFTER 09Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL OF BEING SEVERE, HENCE THE MARGINAL (1/5) TO SLIGHT  
(2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OUTLINED BY SPC. THE PRIMARY THREAT  
REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR TORNADOES.  
THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, WE WILL SEE COOLER AND DRIER AIR RUSH IN. A  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND INTO THE REGION; HOWEVER, BEFORE IT  
MAKES IT ATOP THE CWA, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.  
MAXTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO  
NORMS; HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE ONE DAY OF COOLER THAN AVERAGE  
OVERNIGHT TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT  
OF CAA AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF  
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY, WITH WARMER CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW  
RETURNING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
BY THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE  
ESTABLISHED, WITH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. WE CAN  
EXPECT PWATS TO BE IN OR AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. ALL OF THIS  
IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP  
THROUGH. DESPITE THAT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL, WITH ONLY  
ISOLATED TO LOWEND SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY. A HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK THEN OFF TO THE EAST A BIT GOING  
INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WE COULD SEE ISOLATED POPS RETURN;  
HOWEVER, THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITIONING OF THE  
SURFACE HIGH AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN MANAGE TO GET INTO THE  
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND.  
 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POST FROPA TEMPS AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF  
THE LONG TERM THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
CLIMO NORMS, BOTH MIN AND MAX TS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY HOVER AT OR  
WITHIN 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO  
THE AREA ALONG WITH A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX THAT IS  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE  
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH STRONG, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY  
RAIN LEADING TO REDUCED VIS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE POST FRONTAL  
PASSAGE, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. TOMORROW  
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, ELEVATED AND GUSTY NNW WINDS CAN BE  
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICKUP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS  
AROUND 15-18 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WAVES  
WILL BUILD 2 - 4 FT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE  
OF A COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF, BUT ENHANCED, OFFSHORE FLOW  
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY MORNING TO EVENING, HENCE THE ISSUANCE OF A  
SCY AND SCS.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP RH ABOVE 60% THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING, WITH A LULL IN  
ACTIVITY EXPECTED BEFORE A LINE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY  
THROUGH THE EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY REESTABLISH  
MONDAY. CURRENTLY, MULTIPLE PARISHES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE  
ACROSS ACADIANA ALONG WITH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AEX 89 63 77 46 / 70 80 0 0  
LCH 86 69 83 54 / 70 40 0 0  
LFT 85 69 82 51 / 70 60 10 0  
BPT 87 69 84 56 / 50 40 0 0  
 
 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ450-452-  
470-472.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...87  
LONG TERM....87  
AVIATION...87  
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