907
FXUS64 KLCH 251856
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
156 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY
TX SOUTHEASTWARD TO VERMILION BAY, LA. THIS RISK ENCOMPASSES
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST ACCOUNTING FOR ANY STORMS
THAT MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA- THOUGH EVEN THAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
- FOR ANY ISOLATED STORM CLUSTERS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, THEY ARE FAVORED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE I-49 CORRIDOR,
NEAR ACADIANA, AND FURTHER EAST.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S NORTH OF
I-10.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LOOM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE SQUEEZES THE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST ABUTTING THE SUBTROPICAL JET RIDGING NORTH OF
MEXICO. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THIS ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
GENERATING CLUSTERED THUNDERSTORMS / SQUALLS BEFORE DESCENDING INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LOCALLY, MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS PROGGED TO STAY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, ANYTIME THERE IS A NEARBY BOUNDARY THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF ACTIVE WEATHER, IT WARRANTS CAUTIONING THAT SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLEED OVER WEST OF THE I-49
CORRIDOR. FAR SOUTHWEST LA AND SOUTHEAST TX, ARE STILL FAVORED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN FREE TODAY AND SUNDAY. FURTHER TO THIS, AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES PRIMED WITH HEALTHY INSTABILITY AND STRONG LAPSE
RATES EXCEEDING 7.0°C/KM, ANY WEAKNESSES IN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
MAY ALLOW DESCENDING ACTIVITY FROM THE PLAINS TO REACH TOWARD TX
WHICH IS SOMETHING THE SHORT / MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CAN STRUGGLE
WITH BEYOND 12 HOURS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS ASIDE, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW 90S FOR WELL INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TX
AND CENTRAL LA. SOUTH OF HWY 190, DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER- IN THE UPPER 80S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONSUMING SOUTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST. STILL EXPECTING ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS MEXICO BUCKLES NORTH
INTO THE BORDER STATES. CONCURRENTLY, THE LONG RANGE PATTERN SUGGEST
A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
BEHIND FRONT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL
CARRY OFF THE TX/LA GULF COAST OR TRANSITION STATIONARY NEAR / ALONG
THE COAST. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL OF A NEW HUMID / STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF A
REDUCTIONS IN DAILY HIGHS TO THE LOW 80S AND UPPER 70S WHICH WOULD
TEMPER THE HEAT INDEXES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED RANGE.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND FAR
SOUTHEAST LA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH FEW TO SCT CLOUD BASES MAY HANG
2-3KFT. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS AEX, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIFT INLAND
HAS KEPT THE AREA IN MVFR CEILINGS, BUT MAY BREAK TO VFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SIMILARLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER /
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ACADIANA BEFORE DUSK WILL LEAD TO SOME
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS. AREAWIDE, TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
LOW MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAWN HOURS OF THE
26TH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
RIDGING OVER THE WEST GULF WILL KEEP MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
AT BAY FOR THE COMING DAYS. THAT SAID, WHILE MOST ACTIVITY IS
FAVORED INLAND A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM CLUSTER MAY CARRY ON SOUTH AND
CLIP PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CHECK LATEST FORECASTS / RADAR.
OTHERWISE, LOW SEAS AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS SET TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE FROM
CENTRAL LA DOWN THROUGH LOWER ACADIANA. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 0.50
INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG A TIGHT CORRIDOR FROM I-49, EAST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THIS SAME REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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