971
FXUS64 KLCH 012305
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HEAT CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR JEFFERSON AND HARDIN COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM 1 PM - 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING A 20-60% CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.
- SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, BUT BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED.
- A FEW, DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30%
RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE GULF WHILE A COLD FRONT IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
ILLINOIS. ALOFT, UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THIS TROUGH
PROGRESSES SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, IT WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN OUT
BECOMING THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE E CONUS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL GIVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT A FURTHER PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. AS
THIS BOUNDARY CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, A
FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA AS IT DRAWS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MEAN VERY
LITTLE FOR US TEMPERATURE WISE, WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE
MID-90S TOMORROW, IT WILL BRING A NICE SHOT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WITH A BRIEF NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE MID-60S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX AND
CENLA. POST SUNRISE TOMORROW, FURTHER DRY AIR ADVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED, WITH DEWPOINTS AT MOST LOCATIONS (EXCEPT NEAR THE
COAST) LIKELY NOT GETTING ABOVE 70 DEGREES TOMORROW. WHILE IN THE
GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS THIS IS NOT REALLY ALL THAT DRY, FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IT SHOULD HELP THINGS TO FEEL FAR LESS OPPRESSIVE
TOMORROW EVEN AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 90S.
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, SLOW MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS ON MONDAY AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE W/SW, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE LINGERING BOUNDARY STARTS
TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, E CONUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD, LOSING ITS
HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY. IT MAY LEAVE BEHIND JUST
A SLIGHTLY WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, BETWEEN
RIDGING THAT WILL BE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND EAST
SIMULTANEOUSLY. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP, A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON TUES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WINDS ACQUIRE MORE WNW - NW COMPONENTS THROUGH DAWN. AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR VCSH NEAR
ACADIANA TERMINALS, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS LIGHT ON ANY POTENTIAL
ACTIVITY UNTIL MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THE 02ND UNDER NW FLOW.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY, TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO RESULT
IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT
FURTHER WITH SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH'S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-50% RANGE. WINDS WILL TURN
BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-515-615.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ470-
472.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...30
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