877
FXUS64 KLCH 221827
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
127 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NEAR THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
ASYMMETRICAL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS OFFSHORE, SOUTH OF
THE CENTER.
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PORTIONS
OFLOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY. COASTAL
PARISHES EXEAST OF CAMERON DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
STORM WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINS AND SOME POTENTIAL STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL END AFTER SUNDOWN TODAY.
COMPRESSIONALHEATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND APPROACHING
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS BRINGING EXCESSIVE HEAT. MAX AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 112 TO 118 DEGREES.
- THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL BEYOND THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AND HOT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN PLACE AND VERIFYING ACROSS MANY CITIES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. DANGEROUS HOT
CONDITIONS WHICH POSE HAZARD TO THE HEALTH OF HUMANS AND ANIMALS IS
OCCURRING. THAT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 8PM THIS EVENING.
METEOROLOGICALLY, THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION WHERE BOTH A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
EXTENDING AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ARE CONSTRUCTIVELY WORKING
TO HEAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND HEDGE THOSE HEAT
INDICES OVER 113°F.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO JOG DUE WEST WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANGES IN THE NHC TRACK. BERTHA HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND WIND SHEAR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THE SYSTEM IS BATTLING AGAINST. BERTHA'S DECOUPLED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH LAND ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA SOON WHICH MAY FURTHER WEAKEN THE STORM. IT'S
IMPORTANT TO NOTE, THAT WHILE CURRENT ADVISORIES CARRY BERTHA TOWARD
THE GALVESTON BAY AREA OF TEXAS BY TOMORROW NIGHT, MUCH OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND RADII WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, OFFSHORE.
THUS, WIND EFFECTS ARE NOT NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE DANGEROUS FAR
INLAND, HOWEVER, OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WITH BE HAZARDOUS CONTAINING
CONFUSED CHOPPY SEAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
SOUTH AND ASYMMETRICALLY AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION CENTER.
SCATTERED STORMS STILL ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA AS SHE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANY REMNANT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA SHOULD BE EXITING
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED CHANCES DO
EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY. CONDITIONS FURTHER DRY OUT SATURDAY AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TRENDING UP WITH THE INCOMING SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
WINDS WILL REESTABLISH AS ONSHORE SOUTHERLIES. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF
GULF AIR, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY CAPPING MUCH CONVECTION. BOTTOM LINE, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE,
THE OUTLOOK FOR RAINFALL LOOK QUITE MINIMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
ATMOSPHERIC COMPRESSION AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
IS RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGH PRESSURE ENHANCEMENT AND THUS, VERY
HOT CONDITIONS, CLEAR SKIES AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS. A
BOUNDARY IS SITUATED NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER WHICH COULD FIRE OFF A
FEW STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HOUSTON METRO RATHER THAN EAST.
LOW PRESSURE COMING OFF FROM BERTHA WILL BEGIN ITS WORK ON THIS
HIGH, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO FILTER IN FROM ALOFT, THEN MID LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AND FINALLY SURFACE MOISTURE CAN RETURN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS COULD BEGIN FILTERING IN AS EARLY AS
MORNING TOMORROW, BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
SITES FROM THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTER 18Z. NO MENTIONS OF VC YET,
BUT THE NEXT TAF SUITE WILL LIKELY START THESE MENTIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VARIABLE LATER IN THE PERIOD AS
BERTHA MOVES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HAVE DEVELOP WEST / NORTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS BERTHA NEARS THE
COASTAL WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AS IT MOVES
JUST INLAND OR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. A ~24 HOUR PERIOD OF
CONFUSED, CHOPPY SEAS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY GIVEN
THE SHIFT OF WIND AGAINST PREVAILING SWELLS AND WIND WAVES. AT
THIS TIME TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY EAST OF CAMERON. ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 THE HEAT INDEX IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
AROUND 113-118 DEGREES. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
ASYMMETRICAL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER WINDS AND RAIN AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE NEXT WITH WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAZ073-074-252>254.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TXZ615.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GMZ430-432-435-450-470.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ436-452-455-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page