151
FXUS64 KLCH 132335
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND AFTERNOON MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102 AND 109 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A DISTINCT MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE REGION. HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOTED AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT
2.25 INCHES, MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 87%, WARM CLOUD LAYER
AROUND 14K FEET, AND STORM MOTIONS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THEREFORE, A
CONCERN FOR RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES PER HOUR LEADING
TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, DOES EXIST.
HREF IS SHOWING 30 TO 70% CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 OR
MORE INCHES FOR UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER, WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH AGAIN SOME
STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER PWAT WILL
STAY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 70
PERCENT ALONG WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE WITH
POSSIBILITY OF 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) OR BETWEEN A 15 AND 24 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LEESVILLE TO LAKE CHARLES LINE. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4)
OR BETWEEN A 5 TO 14 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF THAT LINE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH NONE TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. THIS WILL ALLOW THAT
DREADED SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD BACK UP WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE DAILY AFTERNOON MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 103 AND 109 DEGREES. THE HEAT RISK IS
PROGGED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) RANGE ON
FRIDAY, WHICH MEANS AFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND HYDRATION. HOWEVER, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO REACH MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) OVER THE
WEEKEND.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BETWEEN 02 AND
08Z. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
INITIALIZE NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AFTER 08Z AND GRADUALLY
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL INITIALIZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING STORMS BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z) DUE
TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MORNING STORMS. WHILE THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AWAY FROM
STORMS, LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A VERY MOIST GULF AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
MEANWHILE, A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...66
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