101
FXUS64 KLCH 281214
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ALONG WITH SOME FROST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL MODERATE SOME ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HOWEVER BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO STAY OVER
THE GULF ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MORE
ARCTIC AIR SURGING IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG
WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A DISTURBANCE ARE STARTING TO THIN OUT AND
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
BELOW FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.
THE SURFACE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SLUMBER
SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION
IN TEMPERATURES.
A BETTER MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF BRIEFLY RETURN. AT THIS POINT,
THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL STAY
OVER THE GULF ALONG WITH ANY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THAT, FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES
STAYING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY. WITH BEST MOISTURE AGAIN STAYING TO
THE SOUTH, FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS IN.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING ALONG WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIPPING DOWN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, BY SATURDAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH AN
OPEN DOOR TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING DOWN A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
WITH THE FRIGID AIR EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST, AND
WITH A SNOW PACK LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AIR MASS WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO MODIFY TOO MUCH BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
WHISKER PLOTS ON THE NBM ENSEMBLES ARE CONTINUING TO SHOWING LESS OF
A SEPARATION BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILES THAT WOULD BRING
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL STILL BE RATHER GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THIS EPISODE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND CLOSE TO OR EVEN A TAD LOWER THAN THIS
CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS.
THE HIGH WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND A MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS CAN BEGIN BY MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRINGS IN SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF HELPS TO INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES AHEAD OF
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT AEX ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIFTED
FOG ABOVE THE SURFACE DECREASING VERTICAL VISIBILITY. THESE AREAS
ARE VERY PATCHY AT BEEN BUT COULD POSE AN ICING ISSUE THROUGH
8AM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RESUME WITH RISING SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL RETAIN MAINLY NORTH COMPONENT THOUGH MID-AFTERNOON BUT ALSO
REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE PREVAILING PERIOD.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 49 24 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 54 33 60 38 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 53 31 59 41 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 55 35 63 38 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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