485
FXUS64 KLCH 311913
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TD5 MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COAST TODAY AND INLAND ON TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES.
- WIND AND SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR AT THIS TIME.
- A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF INVERTED
TROUGHS AND HIGH MOISTURE KEEPING A DECENT CHANCE FOR DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT
100 MI SOUTHEAST OF VERMILION BAY MOVING WNW AT 5MPH. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, WE COULD SEE TD5 STRENGTHEN INTO A LOW END
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMETIME TOMORROW EVENING
ALONG THE TX COAST.
IN OUR LOCAL AREA, WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING WWA'S:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALL GULF MARINE ZONES ALONG WITH LOWER JEFFERSON CO AND CAMERON PAR.
COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR LOWER JEFFERSON AND WEST CAMERON.
ADVISORY FOR EAST CAMERON AND LOWER VERMILION.
FLOOD WATCH
ALMOST ALL OF OUT SETX COUNTIES WITH EXCEPTION TO NORTHERN JASPER
AND NORTHERN NEWTON.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM, TD5 WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA THEN COASTAL SETX, WITH
MINOR IMPACTS FELT ACROSS OUR INTERIOR SETX COUNTIES AS IT MOVES
INLAND. WITH THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, WE COULD
SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES ACROSS SETX/SWLA. THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS AS WELL AS
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. AT THE MOMENT, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RIVER FLOODING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WHILE NO MAJOR
STORM SURGE THREAT WILL BE POSED BY THE SYSTEM, WE WILL SEE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG OUR COASTLINE AS IT NEARS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THEY ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW THE TS WARNING THRESHOLD. WE WILL SEE WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24H, AND IT WILL NOT BE OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR THE TS WARNING TO BE EXPANDED, OR
HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND.
AFTER TD5 MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES AND SUMMERY TEMPERATURES. THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ALONG
WITH A WEAKNESS WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGE ALOFT CURRENTLY
NORTH OF US WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE
WNW INTO TX. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN, AND
WITH THAT, THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT HEADLINES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE SWIRLING AROUND
TD5 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SOME LOWER MVFR TO IFR CIGS COULD RESULT FROM
THIS, HOWEVER CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THAT WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.
LATER THIS EVENING WE WILL SEE CONDITIONS PROGRESSIVELY
DETERIORATE AS THE TD MOVES INLAND. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD VERY EARLY
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WHICH IS MOVING WNW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GULF MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS SABINE AND
CALCASIEU LAKES. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
KT NEAR THE CENTER AND SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
IMPACTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BETWEEN
60 AND 70 PERCENT ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THESE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A PROBABILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ073.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ074-
252.
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TXZ615.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ615.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ180-201-261-262-515-516-615-616.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ430-432-450-452-455-470-472-475.
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