846
FXUS64 KLCH 242319
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021
DISCUSSION
FOR THE 25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION
DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AND SHOULD
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION IS THE KAEX TERMINAL
WERE PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THAT WILL BRING ABOUT MVFR CONDITIONS.
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER REPEAT WITH DIURNAL AND SEABREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST BY MID MORNING, THEN MOVING
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NRN GULF,
MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANT SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. DESPITE THE
RIDGE AND WEAK CAPPING NOTED IN MORNING SOUNDINGS, SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FIRE ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DAYTIME
SEA BREEZE WHICH HAS PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS STARTED FIRING ALONG
CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR ALONG RESULTANT OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.
THE AREA REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENT PATTERN AS THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
DIGGING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES/CNTL CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
ALONG A LATE NIGHT LAND BREEZE, THEN DRIFT NWD THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A RESULTANT OUTFLOW/DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY ALONG RESULTANT OUTFLOWS AS WELL AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEATING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING IS
PROGGED TO BE VERY SLIM AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT POPS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z, LOOK TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN ERLY WAVE
CROSSING THE NRN GULF BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SEASONAL
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RUNNING 90F-92F. HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO
REACH AROUND 105F ACROSS INTERIOR SERN TX BY LATE MORNING EACH OF
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE LEVELING OFF WITH LOWERING
DEWPOINTS AND PERHAPS COOLING TEMPS UNDER ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. NO ADVISORIES LOOK NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS WE FAIL TO
MEET CRITERIA BOTH DAYS.
25
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. FORCING FROM THIS TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SHOWER TRIGGERS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER, WITH
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70-80% EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
RAIN RATES ALONG WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. EXCESSIVE RAIN/CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S EXPECTED.
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO TEXAS BY EARLY TUESDAY,
WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
HOLD ON THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO MORE A MORE TYPICAL 30-60% EACH
AFTERNOON. A CONTINUED LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE, AS WELL AS HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S, CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
17
MARINE...
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING IN CONTROL, EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS/SLIGHT SEAS TO PERSIST ON THE COASTAL WATERS...NO HEADLINES
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 76 93 75 92 / 10 40 20 40
LCH 79 90 77 90 / 10 40 10 50
LFT 76 90 75 89 / 20 60 20 60
BPT 78 90 76 90 / 10 40 10 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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