335
FXUS64 KLCH 141241
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING FAIR
CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN ON SUNDAY THROUGH
MARDI GRAS.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS BY
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
ELEVATED WINDS AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER HAVE PREVENTED
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM FORMING, WITH VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT THE RISK OF INLAND
DENSE FOG HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVER FOR THE INLAND ZONES. WILL HANG ONTO THE MARINE FOG
ADVISORY FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION HERE AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
DURING THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM FOG AND/OR VERY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
THE ISSUE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED A RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST GULF MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES
ALLOWING SEA FOG TO FORM AND PUSH INLAND. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH AT THE MOMENT SO THIS IS
ALLOWING THE FOG TO LIFT INTO A MORE OF A STRATUS DECK AT 200 TO 300
FEET AS IT MOVES INLAND TOWARD I-10. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY GOING AS ANY DROP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW
STRATUS DECK TO DROP TO THE SURFACE.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND
NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO IS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM
AND MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE PLAINS,
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN PLAINS AREA
WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN TOW THAT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE GULF MOISTURE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
INCREASING ASCENT AND FORCING HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME STREAMER TYPE
SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MEETS UP WITH THE INCREASING MOIST AIR MASS WITH
PWAT OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND WITH
MEAN LAYER RELATIVE OVER 80 PERCENT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WORK WITH THE MOISTURE TO FORM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL COALESCE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS POTENTIALLY A QLCS FEATURE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
85H JET AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY UP
TO 60 KNOTS. THE VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL MAKE FOR A WELL SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE.
THE QUESTION TO HOW INTENSE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH TIMING WILL BE AFTER
SUNSET AND AFTER DAYTIME HEATING, SO THIS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
ALSO WITH COOL GULF WATER TEMPERATURES, A MARINE LAYER JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THAT MAY ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THE
ABILITY OF STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE ROOTED.
THEREFORE, WE ARE LOOKING AT A HIGH-SHEAR, LOW CAPE (HS/LC)
ENVIRONMENT. SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
HELP INCREASE SOME INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW PROGS ARE SHOWING MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 200 J/KG TO UP TO 700 J/KG, WITH
MEAN VALUES ON THE NBM NEAR 500 J/KG. THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND 0-1KM HELICITY
OVER 300 M2S2 NEEDS TO BE RESPECTED. IN THESE SITUATIONS CAPE AROUND
500 J/KG THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED MAY PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN-UP,
ALONG WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH THE PROGRESS NATURE OF THE
LINE SEGMENTS AND ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN
SOME OF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AT LEAST WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS OVER 40
MPH.
LATEST CAMS SHOW THE LINE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 7 PM
AND 9 PM, AND MAKE A ROUGHLY 8 HOUR TRIP ACROSS THE FORECAST EXITING
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM.
SPEAKING OF THE RAIN, WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE SHOULD HELP
KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO
AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.75 INCHES AND 1.25 INCHES. 90TH PERCENTILE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR THE REASONABLY HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING IN
THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.
THE LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON
EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE A BRIEF SHOWER DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE A DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN. ALSO SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY (LUNDI GRAS) IS LOOKING GOOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY (MARDI GRAS)
MAKING FOR FAIR CONDITIONS TO END THE CARNIVAL SEASON WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PLACE POST CARNIVAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF AGAIN. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN FROM FALLING.
MEANWHILE, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND NEARING DAILY RECORD HIGHS BY
THURSDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS IT STANDS NOW WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
MIX OF IFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, CHIEFLY DUE TO
LOW CIGS. THESE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH MVFR TO VFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON, REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE AN APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS.
TEMPO/PROB GROUPS AT KAEX AND THE I-10 TERMINALS RESPECTIVELY
REFLECT BOTH THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE AND A TEMPORAL WINDOW
CONSENSUS FROM LATEST CAMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS,
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE WEST, WITH SOME LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLCH/KBPT BUT VFR ELSEWHERE.
13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER
COOLER SHELF WATERS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP LATER
IN THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW PUSHES A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE ALONG WITH LOWERING SEAS ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 60
AND 70 PERCENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES A PACIFIC FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END EARLY SUNDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 57 72 49 / 30 100 20 0
LCH 73 59 72 52 / 30 90 0 0
LFT 75 61 73 52 / 10 90 10 0
BPT 74 58 73 52 / 50 90 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...13
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