270
FXUS64 KLCH 301750
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL PROVIDE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
- NO TROPICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MIX OF SAHARAN DUST AND MARINE AEROSOLS WILL
CREATE HAZY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
WELL. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILE AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WHERE INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY HEDGE TOWARD THE MID 90'S
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BORDER HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON RH. REGARDLESS,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 100°- 107°F IS A GIVEN
THIS WORK WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LOUISIANA, HOWEVER, MODELS DON'T SUGGEST
ENOUGH FORCING TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE COAST- CONCERNING THE NW
GULF. THE MORE FAVORABLE AXIS FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION / CONVERGENCE
ALIGNS ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EAST GULF. ISOLATED
SUMMERTIME THUNDERSHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE DAILY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES EXTENDING ACROSS ACADIANA AND SOUTHEAST LA.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LONG RANGE PATTERN HAS SOME UNSETTLED ELEMENTS, MAINLY
PRECIPITATION. A PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STALL NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DOES CARRY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY
ORGANIZING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH IN THIS REGION. CONFIDENCE DOES
REMAIN WITH THE DAYTIME HIGHS TO HEDGE FURTHER INTO THE MID 90'S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL SOLUTIONS
WITHIN THE BLENDED AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT YIELD AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS COASTAL TROUGH TO STALL AND / OR RETROGRADE
WEST ALONG THE TOWARD SELA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BECAUSE
THIS SOLUTION HAS RETAINED SOME CONSISTENCY, POP'S DO BECOME
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS COMING WEEKEND. WITH REGARDS TO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS, THAT POINT IN THE FORECAST IS WELL OUT OF
THE SCOPE OF REASONABLE CONFIDENCE TO SAY MORE THAN CHANCES
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. BOTTOM LINE, THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN GULF. HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS MAY WARRANT HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME AS WELL.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AROUND 3-5KFT AND HAZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WITH VARIABLE SW COMPONENTS. TS WILL BE LIMITED GENERALLY TO THE
VICINITY AT BEST, HOWEVER, ACADIANA TERMINALS STAND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWER OR ISOLATED TS THROUGH SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA, WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSES
MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK AS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 45 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ACADIANA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 96 73 95 / 10 40 20 30
LCH 76 93 76 94 / 0 20 10 30
LFT 75 92 75 92 / 10 40 20 60
BPT 75 93 75 94 / 0 10 0 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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