598
FXUS64 KLCH 222329
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A WARM GULF AIR MASS
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH
SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING DAILY RECORDS.
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP ANY CHANCE OF
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE THAT MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING
A RATHER BENIGN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM THE SOUTHEAST US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE.
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 2-3K FEET WILL HELP TRAP THE RESIDUAL
GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AT NIGHT. WITH THE DRY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT THAT
WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS
THAT WILL MAKE FOR A SUPER-SATURATED AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL ALLOW PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. PROBS ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT OF VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH MEAN
SURFACE VISIBILITY FROM THE NBM IN THAT LOCATION AROUND 0.25 MILES.
THEREFORE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WINDS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AROUND 9 AM LOCAL ON MONDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT REACHES THE REGION, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY AFFECT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSEASONABLY
WARM EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY CLIMO NORMS WITH SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING DAILY
RECORDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
ALSO, WITH MAINLY RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT, NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO INCREASE AGAIN.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS AND THE EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT THAT
WOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS. HOWEVER,
WHISKER PLOTS FROM NBM SHOW ABOUT A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE LEVELS, SO IT IS STILL TO BE
DETERMINED JUST HOW MUCH OF A COOL OFF MAY TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEKEND.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERNLY. THE
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE DENSE FOG WITH VIS EXPECTED TO DROP
DOWN TO 1/4SM ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, AROUND 14 TO
15Z. DURING THE DAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM AROUND
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THEREFORE, A LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
ALSO BE OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA WITH WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING, DENSE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT MAY HAVE RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM EARLIER BURNINGS. NO
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE
WEATHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 58 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 61 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 61 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 61 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ030>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ201-261-
262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
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