223
FXUS64 KLCH 051110
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
610 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY EXPECTED TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF WHILE LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHICH IS INCREASING MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S, HOWEVER THESE VALUES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY. A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TONIGHT, HOWEVER WINDS MAY GUST OVER 20 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT ACCUMULATION OF RAIN WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY AS A CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES
AND HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY SWINGING A
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THIS
OCCURS IT WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SE TX AND LA BY WEDNESDAY, BUT
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. CAPPING MAY PROHIBIT
MOST CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER NUMEROUS STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST TX LAKES INTO CEN LA. MODEST CAPE AND
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE MAIN THREATS, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE COAST DURING
THURSDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN AND BECOME MVFR
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. MVFR
CEILINGS NEAR 3000FT AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT AROUND 00Z
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT
MOSTLY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE FLOW.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL START TO TURN BACK ONSHORE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SPRINKLE OF
RAIN TUESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. FLOW TURNS NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A SMALL DROP
IN HUMIDITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...17
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