862
FXUS64 KLCH 070004
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
704 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY DUE TO A
COLD FRONT.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING NORTHERN LOUISIANA, WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO RATHER BUOYANT
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT. THUS, A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) TO
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS REGION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS SETUP CONTINUE TO BE
LARGER HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD AND THEN STALL THURSDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. WAA WILL RETURN MOISTURE
BACK NORTH WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND SHARPER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS
THROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR ABOUT THE AREA WITH EXCEPTION TO SOME AREAS THAT
ARE CLEAR OF STORMS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL ONGOING
AND ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE NORTH FLOW
ANTICIPATED MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
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