390
FXUS64 KLCH 261838
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
138 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
KEEP A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY,
LOWER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, TO AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AS OF 130 PM, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT POSITIONED OVER THE TX GULF COAST, DRIER AIR IS STILL
FILTERING INTO THE AREA, AS INDICATED BY OUR 18Z SOUNDING. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS AND SINKS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST; HOWEVER, THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS A BIT, THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AT THE MOMENT ON THE
STRENGTH AND, MORE IMPORTANTLY, TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY; HOWEVER,
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING, AS A MULTIDAY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT COULD DEVELOP. WPC HAS ALREADY INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SETX COUNTIES AND
BORDERING SWLA PARISHES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO
RISE; HOWEVER, THEY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ONCE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HEAT INDICES COULD RETURN TO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH.
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS, MAINLY
ACROSS CENLA, AND HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT
HAZARD CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS COULD FEEL INCREASINGLY
HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE DURING THAT TIME. BY MID NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS A
RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PAST THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST AND GENERALLY
BELOW 10 KTS. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO BRISK
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SEAS REMAINING CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN 1-2 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. BY MID WEEK, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY WITH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THE RESULT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOWEVER THE AIR MASS
WILL ONLY MODIFY SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE, RELATIVELY LOW MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 50 PERCENT.
MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE RETURNS BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WHEN SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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