215
FXUS64 KLCH 251832
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
132 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. MAX HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 109F. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NEARER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
- SCATTERED (30-60%) THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE (50-80%) AREA WIDE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED (30-50%) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES SPINNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION TODAY,
WEST OF AN UPPER TROF DEEPENING INTO HE SOUTHEAST US. THIS TROF
REMAINS THE POINT OF WEAKNESS WHICH IS ALLOWING LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING AND THAT WILL ALLOW FURTHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST WHILE THOSE IN SOUTHEAST TX WILL SEE HEAT INDICES UP TO 109F.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS,
ALLOWING THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES 107 TO 110F AND SO A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED AS
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. STILL, DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORRENTIAL RAIN, THE WPC HAS PAINTED ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LA INTO A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY
AND COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY.
11
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE KEEPING SKIES BKN. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION PRIOR TO SUNSET NEAR ACADIANA.
OTHERWISE, VARIABLE NORTH / WEST BREEZES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AT TIMES BECOMING CALM.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE EAST. UPPER WEAKNESS SHOULD SEND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
EASTERN WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PINNED TO THE WEST BY A TROUGH SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WEAKNESS NOW MOVING INTO
LOUISIANA HAS DEVELOPED SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL LA AND
SHOULD KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE SABINE AT LEAST COOLER TODAY. THE
RIDGE WILL HALT MOST CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT BACKS OFF
AGAIN AND RAIN CHANCES CAN INCH BACK INTO THE FORECAST TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. A RANGE OF 0.10 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE FROM NOW TO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES FALLING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AWAY FROM WHERE
THE UPPER HIGH IS MOST INFLUENTIAL.
EVEN WITH INCREASED RAINFALL, THIS LIKELY WON'T HELP DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVERALL AS ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OTHERWISE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-261-262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...30
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