269
FXUS64 KLCH 270547
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) PRESENTLY TRANSITING CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP EACH DAY
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A WELL DEVELOPED MCS IS BEING TRACKED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CAMS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE COMPLEX INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POSITIVE NEWS IS THAT
GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE
COMPLEX MOVES EAST. HOWEVER, AT A MINIMUM, EXPECT A PERIOD OF
TORRENTIAL RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE COMPLEX
TRAVERSES THE REGION. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CLOSEST
TO THE COAST WITH STORMS SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH LATITUDE.
BEHIND THE MCS, SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE VERY TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. 24 HOUR ENSEMBLE QPF TOTALS
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES WHICH REMAINS BELOW MOST
FFG, BUT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME
SHORT DURATION (2-3 HOUR) NUISANCE STREET FLOODING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY OPENING UP INTO A
BROADER WAVE, BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO PROMOTE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS ACADIANA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WHERE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
EXIST.
BY FRIDAY THE TROF WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING A BROAD
WEAKNESS ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE PUMPING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH, COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON MAX HEATING, WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) PRESENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST. TORRENTIAL RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BPT LCH AND
AEX WITH A BEST ESTIMATE OF THE TIMING OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. DID NOT ADD THESE FOR LFT AND ARA AT THIS TIME AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LINE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THESE TERMINALS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED
THROUGH THE MORNING. ONCE THE MCS CLEARS THE AREA, WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND NEARSHORE LAKES AND BAYS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AWAY FROM
STORMS, ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL
PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 1-3
FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF STRAY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL MAKE BURNING
DIFFICULT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY AS
WELL WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WILL
KEEP RH VALUES HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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