518
FXUS64 KLCH 241729
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
IN THE OVERNIGHTS. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (1 OF 5) FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
SATURDAY MORNING.
- TWO POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE (WIND AND MAYBE LARGE HAIL)
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON (DYING STORMS IN CENLA) AND OVERNIGHT
(ANOTHER ROUND OF DYING STORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA)
EARLY SATURDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
PER THE LACK OF CONVECTION ON RADAR AND DRY LAYER ALOFT OBSERVED ON
THE 18 AND 00Z RAOBS, TODAY PLAYED OUT SOMEWHAT LIKE EXPECTED,
ALBEIT DRIER. FOR THE MOST PART IN OVERNIGHT HOURS, PATCHY FOG MAY
COME UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE RIDGING OVERHEAD. NO
DENSE FOG ANTICIPATED.
NOW FOR FRIDAY'S FORECAST... WE HAVE ARRIVED TO COLD-POOLED-QLCS
SEASON AND IT'S MAKING A ROARING ENTRANCE! THIS IS WHAT MAKES THE
FORECAST SO FLIPPY-FLOPPY.. IT'S HARD TO GAUGE WHERE STORMS WILL
ROLL THROUGH UNTIL WE KNOW WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AT THE TIME. NOW,
THOUGH, WE HAVE A BETTER GAUGE FOR AT LEAST AFTERNOON STORMS AS THEY
ROLL DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE ONGOING WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS STATES. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENLA BECOMES - EH. MUCAPE ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG AND
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S COULD KEEP SOME STORMS RUMBLING INTO
THE RAPIDES/AVOYELLES/ACADIANA REGION, HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT
IN THE 85 TO 70 LAYER AGAIN GIVES ME PAUSE DUE TO THE EML. SO, THERE
COULD BE SOME STORMS THAT LIVE TO SEE THEIR DAY IN THESE AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THEY MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND EVAPORATE INTO THE DRY LAYER. FOR THOSE THAT DO LIVE,
DCAPE > 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS, BUT WITH WINDS OFF THE
SFC ONLY IN THE 15 KNOT RANGE, EVEN STRONG DCAPE CAN ONLY WORK SO
MUCH MAGIC. GUSTS 30 TO 40 KNOTS COULD BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH NOT
LIKELY.
PWATS AROUND 1.30 INCHES SIT IN THE ROUGHLY 75TH PERCENTILE, SO LIVE
STORMS COULD BE DECENT RAINERS, WHICH IS WHAT WE NEED!
NOW, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON THE HEELS OF THIS
DEPARTING AFTERNOON THREAT. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION IN
THE MID LEVELS LOOKS TO RUSTLE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN
SOUTHEAST OK INTO THE ARKLATEX AROUND SUNDOWN. TYPICALLY, THIS
WOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE FOR US HERE, BUT THE DRY LINE BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS THRU THE DAY AND BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND
THE DECAYING SYSTEM TO THE EAST, THERE CREATES A CORRIDOR OF
PINCHED CAPE AND MOISTURE. THIS IS WHERE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
WANT TO ROLL, WHICH WILL PLACE IT CROSSING THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA (DOWN THE SABINE) INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY *IF* STORMS DEVELOP, CLUSTER, COLD POOL AND THEN SURVIVE
THAT LONG ROAD.
CAPE WILL BE WANING WITH SUNDOWN, BUT AGAIN WITH THAT CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER VALUES BEING CONCENTRATED, THE STORM SYSTEM COULD TAKE FULL
ADVANTAGE AND CONTINUE ITS ROLL. OR THE CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP IN A
DIFFERENT REGION AND MOVE ELSEWHERE. IT'S NOT A SLAM-DUNK FORECAST
BY ANY MEANS. IF THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM DOES SURVIVE, SIMILAR TO THE
AFTERNOON RISK, THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASED WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINERS WITH ITS PASSAGE. CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF THE SECOND RISK,
PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IN OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR EARLY WITH IFR CONDITIONS COMING IN AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY UP AT KAEX. ALSO THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR AN MCS TO ROLL SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME ONLY INCLUDED TSRA FOR KAEX AFTER 03Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
LOUISIANA MOVE INTO NEARSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING. WHERE THESE CELLS MOVE, ANTICIPATE LOCALLY HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AND QUICK DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTLINE WILL BRING
MOST RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL WATERS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE INLAND AND DAILY RH
MINIMUMS IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF DECAYING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN IN OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN PRIMARILY CENTRAL LA
AND ACADIANA DURING AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAY HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND QUICK HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANOTHER ROUND WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE COULD ALSO HAVE STRONG WINDS AND QUICK HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
A WETTING RAIN IS UNLIKELY WITH EITHER SYSTEM PASSAGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...27
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