272
FXUS64 KLCH 122343
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF ELEVATING RAIN CHANCES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF STREET FLOODING.
- A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK DROPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW NORMAL AND
ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS A
RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS, AND ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY AS
WELL.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO RAMP UP ACROSS SETX
AND COASTAL AREAS CURRENTLY, WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT / HEATING.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS A RESULT OF THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THIS FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND FURTHER
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF / GULF COAST. WHILE CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED, WE WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO
NORMS FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM, AND ALONG WITH THAT,
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO GET HEAT
INDICES ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGITS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS MOMENT
THAT WE WILL BE RIGHT BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR HEAT HAZARDS.
NEVERTHELESS, ALL ARE URGED TO BE CAUTIOUS DURING PROLONGED
PERIODS OUTSIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY, LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AEX DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY FALLING
TO AROUND 5SM BEFORE IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF PERIODS GUSTY WINDS. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT, VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL PROVIDE MOISTURE
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON WINDS OR
SEAS WHICH WILL BOTH REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK PUSHING
RAIN CHANCES DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
ENHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
BOTH DAYS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT
ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH. A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK SUPPRESSING
PRECIPITATION AND RAISING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 94 73 94 / 20 60 20 50
LCH 77 93 77 92 / 20 60 20 60
LFT 76 90 76 91 / 30 70 20 60
BPT 76 93 76 92 / 20 60 20 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...66
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