488
FXUS64 KLCH 031809
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
109 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING AND
SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BE MINDFUL OF THE DAILY
STORMS. HEAR THUNDER ROAR, THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY
IF OUTDOORS FROM THE HEAT, REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN AIR CONDITIONED PLACE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVENING FIREWORK ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH REGIONAL UPPER AIR ANALYSIS,
INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. GOES PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF 2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY TOLEDO BEND
SOUTHEAST TO THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE FROM DAYTIME HEATING AS SEEN
ON RADAR.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE
WEAKEN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A BREAK IN THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING RE-CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH MAINLY NORTHERLY
FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES,
WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE OF SPC DAILY CLIMO TO
GO ALONG WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 100H-50H RANGING
BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY,
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT TO GO ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE. WITH
EXPECTED CAPE VALUES NEARING 3500 J/KG, PWAT AROUND 2 INCHES, AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TROPICAL
FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND BEFORE THE
MAJORITY OF HOLIDAY FIREWORK DISPLAYS OCCUR.
AS FOR THE HEAT, AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AFTERNOON MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 107 DEGREES, WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY
IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) RANGE, WHICH MEANS AFFECTS MAY
OCCUR TO THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
COOLING AND HYDRATION. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK NEAR THE UPPER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HIGHER DEW POINTS, WHICH MEANS THE HEAT
WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH
SYSTEM AND INDUSTRIES.
THEREFORE, OVER THE HOLIDAY, WATCH OUT FOR THE LIGHTNING DURING THE
DAYTIME, HEAR THUNDER ROAR GO INDOORS, AND TAKE IT EASY WITH THE
HEAT.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE BREAK IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MAX HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAN NORMAL, WITH AGAIN ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT SUNSET.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, AN EXPANSION OF A FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS PROGGED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL BRING ABOUT
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN CU AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. SOME
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION GOES OVER A
TERMINAL, OTHERWISE, AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY 04/02Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MOISTENING AIRMASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 60 PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SAT, FOLLOWED BY A
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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