768  
FXUS64 KLCH 201604  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1104 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WX MAP SHOWS LARGE 1028MB SFC HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS, RIDGING  
SOUTHWEST OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THE REMNANTS OF  
IMELDA SHOWING AS AN EXITING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER OK, A  
LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED AT 850-700MB. THIS IS PROVIDING EAST-  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. STILL DEALING WITH  
THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IMELDA.  
IN ADDITION TO THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR STILL STANDING WATER  
OVER SE TX FOR JEFFERSON/ORANGE/SOUTHERN HARDIN/JASPER/NEWTON, HAD  
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS RADAR IS  
SHOWING SCATTERED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST  
LOUISIANA AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, 50-60% POPS GIVING CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. THE  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH  
7 PM. WORDING OF 1-2" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH  
THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS.  
 
DML  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST  
OVER THE WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ~ 15-20 KTS THIS MORNING  
SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PICKUP FROM THE SOUTHEAST  
~ 15-20 KTS AFTER SUNSET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF  
THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS, ISSUED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION  
FOR THE 0-60NM ZONES THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND  
THIS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO SCA AS WINDS  
MAY EXCEED 20 KTS AT TIMES.  
 
DML  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 657 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 
AVIATION...  
KLCH RADAR SHOWS A BROAD NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF SCTD LT TO  
MODT SHRA ACRS THE AREA. AEX IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY ONE OF  
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT THIS TIME WITH REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS, BUT  
OTHER SITES ARE VFR (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERMITTENT MVFR  
CIGS). IN ADDITION TO AEX, CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS AT BPT AND LCH  
THROUGH 15Z WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELIEST THIS MORNING. KEPT  
PREVAILING SHRA AFTER 15Z AT BPT WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE (PER RECENT HIRES GUIDANCE) THROUGH LATE MORNING AND  
AFTN. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE MORE SCTD FURTHER EAST SO LEFT JUST VC  
MENTION IN AT LA TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL  
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, WITH A CANOPY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. E TO SE WINDS SHOULD STAY  
BELOW 10 KT, ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER  
SHOWERS/STORMS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AREA-WIDE  
DURING THE EVENING.  
 
24  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019/  
 
SYNOPSIS...  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS ANY  
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA COULD LEAD TO FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
REMAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT,  
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
RUA  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WAS ON THE FENCE AS TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR NOT. HOWEVER, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE  
STILL RUNNING AROUND 2-2.20 INCHES, AND ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL  
ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST HRRR WHICH  
HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING THIS. SO.  
ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED INTENSE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY,  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING  
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE HAD THE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL OF THE PAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM. THEREFORE, HAVE  
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 00Z OR  
7 PM LOCAL. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ADJOINING FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH IN HGX'S AREA.  
 
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST  
LOUISIANA AND SINCE THIS AREA DID NOT RECEIVE NEARLY AS MUCH  
RAINFALL AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND DROP THE  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA.  
 
A SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN WILL LIFT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL  
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF IMELDA OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY  
TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN  
FROM THE EAST. THEREFORE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA. HOWEVER, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS, WILL SEE  
RATHER HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS, DESPITE THE START OF "FALL."  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE ISOLATED AND FROM ANY DIURNAL DAYTIME  
HEATING ACTIVITY.  
 
TOWARD, THE END OF THE WEEK, A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MAY BEGIN TO  
BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.  
 
RUA  
 
MARINE...  
NOW THAT IMELDA HAS WEAKEN TO JUST A REMNANT WAVE, GRADIENT IS  
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY WITH JUST MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW. LEFT  
OVER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST OVER  
THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THE RESULT.  
DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
 
RUA  
 
HYDROLOGY...  
MAJOR RIVER FLOOD STAGE IS BEING MET CURRENTLY AT THE PINE ISLAND  
BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST TONIGHT.  
 
COW BAYOU NEAR MAURICEVILLE IS NEAR CREST AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.  
 
NECHES RIVER AT SALT WATER BARRIER IS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AND  
IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
NECHES RIVER AT BEAUMONT IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED  
TO CREST AT MODERATE FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
SABINE RIVER AT DEWEYVILLE IS CRESTING AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE.  
 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY MAY CHANGE CREST LEVELS AND  
TIMING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE  
DETAILS.  
 
RUA  
 
CLIMATE...  
THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AT JACK BROOKS  
REGIONAL AIRPORT SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL ON SEPTEMBER  
19TH OF 11.63 INCHES. THIS SHATTERED THE OLD RECORD FOR THE DATE OF  
2.20 INCHES IN 1979.  
 
THE 11.63 INCHES IS THE 3RD WETTEST SEPTEMBER DAY SINCE RECORDS  
STARTED IN 1901, BEHIND 12.09 INCHES ON SEPTEMBER 17, 1963 FROM  
HURRICANE CINDY, AND 11.80 INCHES ON SEPTEMBER 5, 1980 FROM  
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE.  
 
THE 11.63 INCHES IS ALSO THE 5TH OVERALL WETTEST DAY FOR  
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. NUMBER 1 OF COURSE IS 26.03 INCHES FROM AT  
THE TIME TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ON AUGUST 29, 2017. NUMBER 2 IS  
12.76 INCHES BACK IN MAY 19, 1923 FROM A SERIES OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH 3 AND 4 THE AFOREMENTIONED DATES IN THE  
SEPTEMBER RECORD SECTION.  
 
SO FAR 43.35 INCHES FROM A JEFFERSON COUNTY DD6 ALERT GAGE IS THE  
MOST THAT WE HAVE SEEN AS FAR AS RAINFALL STORM TOTAL FROM IMELDA.  
THIS SITE IS LOCATED AT NORTH FORK TAYLORS BAYOU BETWEEN FANNETT  
AND HAMSHIRE TEXAS. THIS REPORT IS PRELIMINARY AND NOT YET  
VERIFIED. IF IT IS VERIFIED, THAT WOULD MAKE IMELDA THE 7TH  
WETTEST TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD (BY MAXIMUM RAINFALL) FOR THE  
UNITED STATES. NUMBER 1 OF COURSE IS 60.58 INCHES FROM HARVEY IN  
NEDERLAND TEXAS IN 2017. IT WOULD ALSO BE THE 4TH WETTEST FOR THE  
STATE OF TEXAS BEHIND, HARVEY 2017, AMELIA 1978 48.00 INCHES  
MEDINA, TEXAS, AND CLAUDETTE 1979 45.00 INCHES ALVIN, TEXAS.  
 
RUA  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 86 69 89 69 / 50 10 10 0  
LCH 85 74 88 74 / 50 10 20 10  
LFT 88 72 89 72 / 40 10 20 10  
BPT 84 76 87 76 / 50 10 20 10  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-  
216-259>262.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-  
472-475.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...08  
 
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