228
FXUS64 KLCH 272339
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON
SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
- A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH LOW END
RAIN CHANCES (20 TO 40%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. LATE TONIGHT, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE NON-EXISTENT WITH THIS
FRONT, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DRIVE DOWN OUR DEW POINTS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL, WITH
A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE SLOW. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT PLEASE
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE THE PAST WEEK,
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS
SETUP WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ELEVATED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID-80S ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. AROUND MIDWEEK, THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN, WEAKENING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH POPUP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE, AROUND 30%, WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS ACADIANA
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OVERALL, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WON'T BE “DROUGHT-BUSTING,” BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
APPRECIATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN WINDS ALONG THE COAST, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING INTO
EFFECT TONIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW, LOW TIDES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 FEET BELOW MLLW. NOT
LOW ENOUGH FOR A LOW-WATER ADVISORY, BUT IF CONDITIONS ARE WORSE
THAN EXPECTED, ONE MAY BE NEEDED.
GOING INTO OUR NEXT WORK WEEK, CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE,
WITH NO MARINE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE LOUISIANA PARTS OF OUR CWA AND A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THE TEXAS COUNTIES. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A MISTIMING OF THE
LOWEST DEW POINTS AND HIGHEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING CLOSE
TO 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT WILL DECREASE TO THE TEENS BY
THE MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RH VALUES WILL START TO PLUMMET IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25% NORTH OF I-10 AND
AROUND 30% CLOSER TO THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, AND THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE RH
VALUES BY 10 TO 15%. WITH THE WEAKER WINDS AND HIGHER RH VALUES, A
RED FLAG WARNING MAY NOT BE NEEDED, BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN, BUT
THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL KEEP OUR FUELS DRY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ027>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...13
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