076
FXUS64 KLUB 302313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
513 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDY SKIES.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO MID-WEEK, BEFORE FALLING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE. A VFR STATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY
LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLD THIS
AFTERNOON BUT MAY ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH A 1036MB SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO FULL SUN. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING THIS WEEK
FOLLOWING THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND A 1022MB SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS NOT
CLEAR AT THE MOMENT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL IN
TURN GENERATE A SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF CYCLOGENESIS IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GREATLY
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY BRINGING 20-25KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS. GUIDANCE WANTS TO RAPIDLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HOWEVER, MODELS HISTORICALLY ERODE THESE VERY
COLD AIR MASSES TOO QUICKLY EVEN UNDER STRONG DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED
DOWN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SAME SHORT WAVE AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS
FORECAST ON AN UNCERTAIN TRACK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THUS HAS LED TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTAINS HIGH SPREAD IN ITS SOLUTION AS WELL. BLENDED GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPE, A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION. JUST
GOING BY THE FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES, THERE IS SOME MERIT TO
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WITH A VERY SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT PUT TOO MUCH STOCK IN ANY ONE FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, AT CDS AFTER 06Z AND
PVW/LBB AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR CIGS THAN WITH MVFR CIGS, BUT IT IS FAR FROM IMPOSSIBLE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z MONDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page