855
FXUS64 KLUB 072317
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
- MILD AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS
CHILLY WEATHER TOWARD WEEK'S END.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
CLEARING SKIES WERE TAKING CHARGE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE HEELS OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT OVERPERFORMED WITH CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS IN THE FRIONA AREA THIS MORNING. A CHILLY SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WILL PEEL EAST TONIGHT AHEAD
OF LIGHT SSW WINDS WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM GETTING TOO COLD. AM
SKEPTICAL OF THE NAM'S FOG POTENTIAL IN THE CHILDRESS AREA MONDAY
MORNING AS THIS LOOKS OVERDONE FOR 3-6 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
ALOFT, SWIFT NW FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CARRY INTO MONDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING DELIVERS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WE REMAIN LOCKED UNDER DRY NW FLOW
WHICH WILL BE HOST TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS - THE FIRST ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST VERSION LATE THURSDAY. UNTIL
THESE FROPAS, A VERY MILD AND BREEZY AFTERNOON AWAITS TUESDAY THANKS
TO AMPLIFIED LEE TROUGHING. NBM'S WINDS ON TUESDAY SEEM TOO SOFT FOR
THIS PATTERN, SO OPTED FOR ITS 75TH PERCENTILE WHICH ALIGNS BETTER
WITH MOS. LOWER THICKNESSES SPILL SOUTH ON NORTHERLY WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK REBOUND TO WSW BREEZES OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THURSDAY HAS POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALL WEEK
PROVIDED WE SEE ENHANCED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF A STRONG
FROPA ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. AM LEERY OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS'S
AND ECMWF'S WEAKER FROPA LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC SURGE
SOME 24 HOURS LATER. THE NBM AT LEAST TRENDED COLDER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH FITS WELL WITH THE MORE SINGULAR COLD THEME SHOWN BY
THE GEFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE EPS. WITH MAXT STANDARD
DEVIATIONS OF 7 TO 10 FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WE'LL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO THE MEAN THIS MANY DAYS OUT UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO A RANGE
FROM 10 TO 20 KTS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07
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