362
FXUS64 KLUB 010523
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
THE OVERALL PICTURE IS THAT A LEADING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL LEAD TO
AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT,
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES AREAWIDE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLOODING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WHICH CAMS INDICATE WILL QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR AND MOVE EAST AS
A QLCS. FORECAST MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35+ KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
POSE PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAD STALLED AND WEAKENED IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND ALONG HIGHWAY 380 AS INDICATED
BY A MORE PROMINENT CU FIELD EARLIER TODAY AND WILL BE ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE 500 MB UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A
250 MB JET STREAK BECOMING SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOWER, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN PRESENT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE INITIAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACCOMPANIED BY A 100KT 250 MB
JET STREAK. WE MAY START OFF THE DAY WITH SOME STRATUS BUT THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER MIXING
OCCURS. A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG TO THE EAST OF IT.
THE STRONGER JET STREAK WILL ALSO RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. MESOSCALE DETAILS
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN EXACTLY HOW THE DAY PLAYS OUT BUT ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AS AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS. BUT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS EACH DAY. /WI
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
SPOTTY SHOWERS AT THE LEAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
LATTER WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR TS AT THE TERMINALS WILL COME EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
KLBB AND KPVW AFTER SUNRISE OWING IN PART TO THE RICH MOISTURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027-028.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...07
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