345
FXUS64 KLUB 070107 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
807 PM CDT MON APR 6 2020
UPDATE
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO CONFIRM AN END TO OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS, STORMS FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE
WILL BE OVERTAKEN OVERNIGHT BY A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING A DRIER AIRMASS ON WEST WINDS. THAT
WILL PUT AN END TO THE TWO NIGHT STRETCH OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
LUBBOCK, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON APR 6 2020/
AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG
AT KCDS OVERNIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
S-SW WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO WEST OVERNIGHT, THEN TO THE NW
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT MON APR 6 2020/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AND THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FINALLY HAVE BURNED OFF OR LIFTED FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST IS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND SUNSET AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH HOW SURFACE FIELDS HAVE EVOLVED SO FAR. 12Z RUNS OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWED A BROAD DRYLINE MIXING TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK BY THIS 21Z WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S WEST OF
THE MIXING ZONE. THEY ALSO VEERED SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BUT WEST TEXAS MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW
THAT THIS HASN'T HAPPENED EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 114 AND WEST OF U.S. 87 IS HELPING TO
HOLD MID 50 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS, AND
A FEW LOW 60S ARE NOW SHOWING UP IN THE ROLLING PLAINS ON
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. LATEST RUNS FROM 18Z OF THE HRRR AND RAP
HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON CONDITIONS NOW THAN ON EARLIER RUNS BUT
STILL LOOK TO TRY AND MIX THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST TOO FAST COMPARED
TO OBSERVATIONS. THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A PERSISTENT SIGNAL TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN FOR
ISOLATED STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE BETWEEN 800 TO 700 HPA FOR LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT
IT DOES GET PRETTY CLOSE TO BREAKING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM. ONE OTHER CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS IS
THAT A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAS PRETTY MUCH DISAPPEARED FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS. WITH ALL THIS
TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION, THERE IS STILL A SMALL BUT DWINDLING
CHANCE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS TRACKING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE THE
FORECAST DRY AFTER 00Z/7 PM CDT.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST AND THIS WILL MIX DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CAPROCK INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL
START OFF THE DAY ROUGHLY ALONG A CHILDRESS TO POST LINE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX EAST THROUGH THE MORNING SO THAT DRY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S FOR THE CAPROCK WITH SOME READINGS
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT EVEN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN AROUND 10 PERCENT
IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, FIRE DANGER SHOULD NOT BE TOO HIGH.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WILL LAST TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. MODELS OVERALL
TEND TO DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ECMWF HAVING
IT REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE RESULTING
GFS SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY QUIET THURSDAY. IF THE PATTERN
DOES END UP FOLLOWING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS THUNDER POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIMITED AS PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY ISENTROPIC.
MODELS TEND TO FALL MORE IN AGREEMENT BY THE LATE WEEKEND. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A NEW UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BRINGS IT EASTWARD
OVER THE FA BY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR EXCEPT INSTEAD OF
DEVELOPING A NEW LOW IT USES THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CA/AZ. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND PUSHES EAST OF THE FA. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
MODELS DIVERGE EVEN FURTHER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
HAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND THE ECMWF BRINGING A SECOND
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page