095
FXUS64 KLUB 292303
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
503 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COLDER WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- GENERALLY COOLER AND DRY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION USHERING
IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MODERATE PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF 4-5MB/3HR BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT STEMMING FROM A 1040MB SURFACE
RIDGE OOZING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS WINDS GO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY
WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM OF 35F IN LUBBOCK. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
WE WILL SEE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL LOSE SOME AMPLIFICATION BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN. FOR MONDAY,
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVING
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SCOOT EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RISE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON TUESDAY WILL GENERATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY
ALLOWING FOR A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LOW. THIS IS DUE
TO THE HISTORICAL FACT MODELS TEND TO ERODE THESE COLD AIR MASSES
TOO QUICKLY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY BUT SPREAD
IS HIGH IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. NATIONAL BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVES CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE INCLUDING AI-GEFS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIPITATION IS LOW
AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
TAF CYCLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT
ALL TAF SITES, BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page