073
FXUS64 KLUB 020456
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1056 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM TO OUR SOUTH AND ADVECT
TOWARDS THE CWA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF TX-114
AND GENERALLY REMAIN PATCHY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED DENSE
FOG IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO NEAR 1 MILE
AT TIMES. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEARS THE ROCKIES, A LEE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO FORM, AND THE HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
COMPACT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-END BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY
CONDITIONS, WITH WINDS OF 40-45 KT A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
GROUND. MIXING WILL HELP TO BRING SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
GROUND AS GUSTS. THOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA (31 TO 39 MPH), IF FORECASTED WINDS INCREASE MUCH MORE, A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. CURRENT AREAS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL ARE THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. ALSO, THOUGH NOT
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS, LOCALIZED AREAS OF PATCHY DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD START TO
COME DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THEY
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ELEVATED. GKENDRICK
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HIT ON DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER
JET AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT. WHILE VERY PLAUSIBLE, THE QUESTION
THAT REMAINS IS IF HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND.
MOISTENING WILL BE FROM TOP DOWN, AND THE UPPER JET WILL PASS OVER
HEAD FAIRLY QUICKLY LEAVING A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FOR MOISTENING TO
OCCUR. VIRGA SHOWERS WILL, AT THE LEAST, BE POSSIBLE. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH SETTLES
OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP INTO THE UPPER
60S/UPPER 70S MONDAY AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS BY HAVING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS STILL
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK BEHIND A
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS OF THIS FRONT BEING
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S IN THE SENSE OF HAVING A SIMILAR SETUP FOR
RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE LOW CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY FOG WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KLBB. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
ALL THREE SITES TOMORROW NIGHT. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS
THROUGH KCDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS TURNING
TO THE NORTH.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...11
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