248  
FXUS64 KLUB 240519  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1219 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
THE AXIS OF A DE-AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO  
CENTER OVER THE CWA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLOGENESIS OF A BROAD LEE LOW HAS  
COMMENCED ACROSS THE RATON MESA AS PER REGIONAL METAR DATA, WHICH  
HAS RESULTED IN A DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT (EVIDENT ON WEST TEXAS  
MESONET DATA) ACROSS THE REGION. VERTICAL MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD  
EXTEND INTO THE MID-LEVELS BY PEAK HEATING, SCOURING OUT MOISTURE  
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AS DRY-BULBS  
WARM TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
OVERNIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFIES TO 30-35 KT  
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT  
PLAINS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST  
FEW WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S AREA-WIDE. A FEW  
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY OBSERVE TEMPERATURES  
IN THE UPPER 40S SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. FRIDAY WILL BE A "RINSE AND  
REPEAT" WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL  
WAA, THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE MORE VIGOROUS WEST OF  
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THETA-E ADVECTION BECOMES  
NEARLY CONSTANT WITH HEIGHT THROUGH 700-650 MB IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SINCAVAGE  
 
LONG TERM...  
SOUTHERLY BREEZES, COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AND DRY AFTERNOONS WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEST TEXAS REMAINS POSITIONED BENEATH  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED  
WITH BROAD TROUGH/LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES MAY  
GRAZE THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE FRONT  
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE CWA, IT SHOULD QUICKLY RETREAT WITH MINIMAL  
IMPACTS LOCALLY.  
 
THE PATTERN WILL TAKE A MORE INTERESTING TURN NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER  
LOW THAT WILL HANG OUT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
EJECTS SLOWLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC. INITIALLY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER MEAGER, BUT  
SHOULD IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO OPEN BACK  
UP. EVEN SO, LIFT AND INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE  
APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE SLIM SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY,  
WITH BETTER CHANCES BY TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF DETAILS  
TO BE RESOLVED THAT WILL DICTATE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE, BUT THE ENTIRE REGION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF  
SEEING PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THE INITIAL UPPER LOW IS PROGGED  
TO OPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT  
SHOULD QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY ADDITIONAL TROUGHING THROUGH LATE  
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH LATE WEEK, AFTER  
PERHAPS A RELATIVE LULL BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES. GIVEN THE PATTERN,  
AND IMPROVING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE NBM POPS  
WHICH NOW SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO SOLID CHANCE POPS OVER A GOOD  
CHUNK OF THE CWA FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RATHER LIMITED  
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO HINDER STORM  
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY, THOUGH A ROGUE STRONG STORM ISN'T OUT  
OF THE QUESTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT, AT  
LEAST ONCE THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES. OTHERWISE,  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD AND PERHAPS EVEN BELOW AVERAGE  
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
NO CHANGES MADE TO THIS MORNING'S FIRE WEATHER ASSESSMENT. BREEZY  
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, AND THE  
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING  
PLAINS THROUGH 24/00Z (7 PM CDT) THIS EVENING. MINIMUM RH VALUES  
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOUTH  
WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT  
WITH RH RECOVERING ABOVE 50 PERCENT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
SINCAVAGE  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
51/99/99  
 
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