763
FXUS64 KLUB 071125
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
AVIATION
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
IS APPROACHING PVW AND SHOULD STALL NEAR THE TERMINAL LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS ISO-SCT TS DEVELOPMENT
BY 20Z OR SO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE IMPACTING PVW IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME. ANY TS WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022/
SHORT TERM...
LAST EVENING'S CONVECTION WRAPPED UP SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LEFT
A FEW INSIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER, A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW WAS EDGING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE COURTESY OF AN MCS IN EASTERN CO. THIS SW-NE BOUNDARY HAS
A GOOD CHANCE OF STALLING IN/NEAR OUR NW ZONES BY LATE MORNING.
COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF RICH PWATS AROUND 1.4" ALIGNED NEARLY ATOP
THIS BOUNDARY AND MODEST CINH, THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON INITIALLY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. EXPANDED LOW POPS EAST TO ROUGHLY ALONG A CDS-LBB LINE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME EASTWARD OUTFLOW PROPAGATION, YET THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE HINDERED MORE THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDING WEST OVER MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND SIZABLE DCAPE WOULD AGAIN OPEN THE DOOR TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AND MICROBURSTS, RESPECTIVELY BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. LASTLY, TEMPS HAVE STILL BEEN RUNNING ABOVE THE NBM AND
MOS IN RECENT DAYS, SO ADJUSTED HIGHS AND LOWS TOWARD THE MILDER
BCCONSMOS FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WE WILL START THE PERIOD FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER-HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
RED RIVER REGION, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OFF THE WEST COAST, AND AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS / SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WITH
THE UPPER-HIGH BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE REGION, THICKNESS WILL
GENERALLY STAY THE SAME AS TODAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK, NEARING 105F ELSEWHERE. WITH A LITTLE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH, PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP NEAR ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A "COLD" FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING UPPER-HIGH MOVEMENT AND WHERE THE UPPER HIGH
WILL END UP GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST DIGS SOME. IF THE HIGH CONTINUES ON ITS
CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK, IT WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT COOL DOWN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR A CHUNK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE NBM VALUES FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND POPS THOUGH THERE IS TIME FOR GUIDANCE TO CHANGE,
SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES! GKENDRICK
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
93
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page