278  
FXUS64 KLUB 181722  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1222 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/NM  
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD AFFECT LBB AND  
PVW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS.  
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SEVERAL FEATURE VISIBLE ACROSS THE IMAGERY CHANNELS THIS MORNING.  
OUT WEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ON SHORE ACROSS THE  
PACNW WHILE ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES  
INLAND AND FURTHER EAST HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE  
REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST  
MID AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WITH A TRANSPORT OF MOIST AIR  
ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS  
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE EXPANDING AS IT CROSSES  
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP  
CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FA AND INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES  
ALOFT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AN INFLOW OF LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CONSEQUENTLY PW  
VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THE INCREASING  
MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS  
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA  
TODAY AND BECOMING MORE WIDE SPREAD AND INTENSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHORTWAVE RIDING DEVELOPS ALOFT WITH DRIER  
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE ACROSS THE  
PACNW. THE LATEST GFS MOVES THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DOWN THE WEST  
COAST TUESDAY THEN INGESTS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE ADVECTING  
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF  
ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW BUT DOESN'T "PICK UP" THE TROPICAL  
DISTURBANCE. BOTH MODELS HAVE VARIED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE CWFA  
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS IS A WEEK OUT WE  
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END TO SILENT BLENDED POPS UNTIL THE PATTERN  
BECOMES MORE SOLIDIFIED.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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