592  
FXUS64 KLUB 281928  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
228 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW  
MORNING BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  
 
- SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH  
THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH  
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.  
 
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
A COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS THAT  
SPANNED MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED. THE  
FEW STRAGGLERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW  
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A WEAK RIDGE IS  
SET UP TO THE WEST. THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS LACK OF  
LIFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A  
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO SURVIVE LONG DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN THE  
REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH USHERING  
IN COOLER AIR AND IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH  
THE DAY, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH 70S FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION AND 80S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MOIST UP-SLOPE SURFACE FLOW  
RETURNS TO THE AREA ALTHOUGH, A STABLE ENVIRONMENT, LACK OF  
INSTABILITY AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION COULD COULD HINDER  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE  
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE  
WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST OF THE FA BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING.  
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SHOULD  
BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM AS UPPER LIFT  
WILL, FOR THE MOST PART, BE LACKING. THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP FRIDAY  
COOL, HIGHS IN THE 70S, BEFORE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD  
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE BREAKDOWN OF THE BLOCKING  
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH MUCH OF THE BOCK, ESPECIALLY  
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA, REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL AT  
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS, ALONG WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES,  
SHOULD HELP SLOW THE WARMING OF AFTERNOON TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS  
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED  
TO BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND PHASING MONDAY WITH A  
SECOND UPPER LOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS  
WILL BRING UPPER FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
DRYLINE CONVECTION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER NEAR TERMINALS HOWEVER, VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH  
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KCDS  
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION  
IN TAF. BRIEF PERIODS OF LLWS OVER KPVW AND KLBB ARE POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AND  
CAN EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT KCDS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE  
FOR KPVW AND KLBB, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM....51  
AVIATION...10  
 
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