395  
FXUS64 KLUB 170325  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1025 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS.  
 
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING ACROSS THE CAPROCK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE  
PRIMARY THREAT.  
 
- DRY AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
02Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING  
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WHILE THE DAMPENED, SUBTROPICAL  
RIDGE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
LOWER 48. THE BAROTROPIC LOW ROTATING OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA  
CONTINUES TO MEANDER POLEWARD, AND THE 17/00Z OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED  
UA CHARTS AND WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE 250 MB JET  
STREAK ROUNDING ITS EASTERN QUADRANT CONTINUES TO STEADILY  
INTENSIFY. THIS WILL, AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST(S), IMPART A  
SMALL CONTRIBUTION OF BAROCLINITY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS  
AS THE LOW LOSES ITS BAROTROPY AND CONTINUE TO REACTIVATE THE BAND  
OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. HIGH-LEVEL FLOW  
WAS DIFLUENT OVER W TX, AS PER THE 17/00Z UA CHARTS, WHICH HAS  
PROVIDED THE SOURCE OF LIFT ATOP THE UNCAPPED AIRMASS EARLIER THIS  
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS  
ANEMIC, AS IS TYPICAL WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGES IN THE MID-SUMMER, BUT  
INTENSIFIES FARTHER NORTH IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH THE BASE  
OF THE TROUGH DELINEATED NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THE LOW-LEVEL WAS  
BACKED AT ABOUT 15 KT, BUT WILL VEER SOUTHWESTWARD BY SUNRISE AS THE  
BROADLY DIFLUENT BELT OF 250 MB FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE JET  
STREAK ROUNDING THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE BAROTROPIC LOW.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAS SINCE MOVED INTO THE FAR  
NORTHERN TX PH, WITH ITS LEADING EDGE APPROACHING DHT BEFORE BENDING  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS GUY AND LBL. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONT WAS LOCATED TO THE  
SOUTH OF GUY, BUT ITS PRESSURE WAS WEAK, AT AROUND 1008 MB. THE COLD  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME  
HOURS, CROSSING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH AFTER 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT,  
AS ITS PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AS IT MOVES BENEATH THE  
CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE  
PRESENT AREA-WIDE, AS THE CWA REMAINS WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR AND TO  
THE EAST OF THE DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH, WHICH IS STILL ANCHORED  
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MESCALERO ESCARPMENT. DIFFERENTIAL VERTICAL  
MIXING WAS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE 60 DEGREE  
ISODROSOTHERM DELINEATED ALONG THE NM STATE LINE, WITH DEWPOINTS  
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE THROUGHOUT THE  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THERE ARE TWO  
PARTICULAR AREAS OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION TONIGHT: THE  
GRADUALLY DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG  
THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONT, WITH OUTFLOW-RELATED THETA  
DEFICITS MAINTAINING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND  
STORMS; AND POLEWARD-MOVING, WAA-INDUCED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35 KT AND SERVE AS  
THE SOURCE FOR LIFTING PARCELS TO THE LFC ABOVE THE DECOUPLING  
BOUNDARY-LAYER. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THE LATE-AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, BUT HAVE SINCE  
BEEN TWEAKED TO FOCUS THE DELINEATION FOR STORMS VERSUS SHOWERS,  
WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE HWY-114 AND HWY-62 CORRIDORS PRIOR TO  
SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE WIDELY-SCATTERED ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHERN TX PH HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, AND IS WHERE  
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COVERAGE  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WILL  
WANE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER BEFORE DAWN.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE  
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TOWARDS THE  
SOUTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE FROM THIS FRONT AS  
CAA IS ESSENTIALLY NIL IN ITS WAKE BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,  
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 90S AREA-WIDE. FULL  
INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS ASCENDING TO AROUND 700 MB,  
WITH A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU FIELD EXPECTED TO BUBBLE ONCE AGAIN BY  
PEAK HEATING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BECOMES UNCAPPED. AS THE LEADING  
EDGE OF THE 250 MB JET STREAK PROTRUDES OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO IN  
CONGRUENCE WITH THE OPENING OF THE BAROTROPIC LOW, IN ADDITION TO  
THE SUPERPOSITION OF THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 250 MB JET  
STREAK OVER EASTERN NM AND THE TX PH, WIDELY-SCATTERED-TO-SCATTERED,  
MONSOONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS  
OF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW EVENING. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK, AND  
STORM MOTION WILL BE RELIANT ON PROPAGATION VERSUS ADVECTION, WITH  
THE STRONG THETA PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER  
DRIVING THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION COMPONENT. THE BEST COVERAGE  
OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH AND WESTERN  
SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM INCREASING  
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE ORGANIZED CORES, WITH RAIN RATES BETWEEN  
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED GIVEN WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 15 KFT AGL  
AND TALL, SKINNY CAPE BETWEEN 1,500-2,000 J/KG; AND PWATS NEAR  
1.25". ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY  
HAZARD WITH STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW OTHERWISE.  
 
SINCAVAGE  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL MOVE WEST  
INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS  
OVER THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
AND WILL MOVE EAST. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW LOCATED OVER BAJA  
CALIFORNIA WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER  
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL WEST OF OUR AREA. LATEST  
MODEL RUNS SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 100 DEGREES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
FORD  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH A DECAYING LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL WORK  
ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING ON  
THURSDAY. CDS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME WIND SHIFTS THOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN  
VFR. PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CDS AND PVW  
TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO  
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...09  
LONG TERM....26/FORD  
AVIATION...26  
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