744  
FXUS64 KLUB 271142  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
542 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY  
WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION,  
STRATUS AND FZFZ THAT HAS BEEN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS ALL NIGHT  
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD. MVFR TO IFR (PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY LIFR)  
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE OVER KCDS AROUND 12Z. IT ALSO LOOKS MORE  
LIKELY THAT KPVW WILL SEE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AFTER  
13Z. AT THIS POINT, WE STILL EXPECT KLBB TO REMAIN VFR, THOUGH  
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS  
CLOSELY. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY AROUND MIDDAY,  
LEAVING VFR AT THE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED A FEW WINTRY  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING IS  
MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, ALLOWING UPPER  
RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, DRIER WESTERLY BREEZES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE  
CAPROCK AND INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. HOWEVER,  
LIGHT AND RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS  
PANHANDLE HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG.  
THESE POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG COULD LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN  
ZONES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW,  
SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH, AND KEEPING THE COOL AIR IN  
PLACE. IN ADDITION, STRATUS SITTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD, VISITING MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING,  
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO  
THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGEST, WHILE THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR THE 50 DEGREE MARK.  
 
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE  
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO  
PROVIDE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. EVEN WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS  
MOSTLY IN THE 20S.  
 
LONG TERM...  
LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH VERY FEW CHANGES. UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON  
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE  
SPREADING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO  
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND  
FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS  
SYSTEM, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH  
WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60'S ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS OFF OF THE  
CAPROCK LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
IN PLACE AND AN ACCOMPANYING TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT, PWS  
SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 3/4" OF AN INCH. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING  
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONLY RESIDE ACROSS THE  
AREA FOR A LIMITED WINDOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF RAINFALL. CAPE  
VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED JUST A TOUCH FROM PREVIOUS MODEL  
GUIDANCE SO LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST. BY  
DAYBREAK SATURDAY LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST  
LEADING TO A DRY REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING A  
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL  
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS FRONT WILL  
USHER IN BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE HAS  
REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT WIND SPEEDS  
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (31+ MPH) FOR  
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO  
BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER AND  
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE WISHING  
FOR SPRING, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM  
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. BUT DON'T BE FOOLED,  
THIS IS STILL WINTER AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS TO APPROACH THE  
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL  
NORMALS. /WCI  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
23/58/23  
 
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