072  
FXUS64 KLUB 242332  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
632 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE  
TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED, BUT MAY ERUPT AGAIN DURING THE EVENING.  
STILL, UNLIKELY ANY CELLS WILL APPROACH EITHER KPVW OR KLBB THIS  
EVENING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR CONTINUED VFR WITH A MODEST SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. LOW  
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) WAS RETAINED FOR THE KCDS TAF LATE TONIGHT  
AND EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY,  
NEARER TO BOTH KPVW AND KLBB BUT AT THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST  
SO NO TAF MENTION YET. RMCQUEEN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN INTO FAR  
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOUD BASES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH WITH  
THIS ACTIVITY THEREFORE ONLY SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS OF 2  
PM. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY VALUES TO  
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID BULK SHEAR REMAINS  
PITIFUL ACROSS THE REGION SO STORMS WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED  
HOWEVER ANY STRONGER STORM WOULD STILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO  
AN END LEADING TO A QUIET BUT ONCE AGAIN MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE JUST SLIGHTLY YET AGAIN TOMORROW AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS  
WILL KNOCK AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BUT  
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. SIMILAR TO THE  
PAST FEW DAYS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH  
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE  
WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING 250 MB FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE  
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE  
SURFACE TROUGH. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE  
PAST SEVERAL DAYS, MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE  
TROUGH AND GENERATE A COLD POOL. AS THE COLD POOL STRENGTHENS  
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE  
EVENING. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE  
INITIALLY A LOW END SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE  
SOUTH PLAINS EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A WIND THREAT  
DURING THE EVENING FARTHER EAST. /WCI  
 
LONG TERM...  
ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE  
DAY SATURDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 40 KT ADVECTS  
ATOP THE STALLING COLD FRONT. STRONG-TO-INTENSE DIABATIC SURFACE  
HEATING IS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE RAIN-COOLED AREAS AS THE BOUNDARY-  
LAYER MIXES AND DEEPENS TO AROUND 1-1.5-KM AGL, CHARACTERIZED BY  
LOWER 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-16 G/KG BENEATH A MODERATE,  
TALL EML WITH SB AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1,500-2,500 J/KG. ANY  
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING BY OUTFLOW(S) FROM THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION  
SHOULD RECOVER BY THIS TIME, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN-  
COOLED/REINFORCED AREAS OF OUTFLOW IN VICINITY OF THE QUASI-  
STATIONARY FRONT SERVING AS A FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EJECTS OVER  
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A RESERVOIR OF  
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) CONTENT NEAR OR POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF  
THE 99TH PERCENTILE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH  
PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.20-1.30" ON THE CAPROCK TO UPWARDS OF  
1.70" ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  
 
THE EXCESSIVE PWATS, COMBINED WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET  
NEAR 35 KT BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED EML, AND A WARM CLOUD-LAYER  
EXTENDING TO THE MID-LEVELS (I.E. ~12-13 KFT AGL), WILL RESULT IN  
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE  
SYSTEM (MCS) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN RATES COULD  
REACH TO AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE DEEPEST CORES, THOUGH  
LOCALIZED MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS MAY RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN RATES PER  
HOUR AS WELL, LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AREAS  
AFFECTED BY THE MCS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE WINDS AND A  
LARGE INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E INFLOW LAYER AIR WILL OFFSET THE RATE  
OF DIABATIC STABILIZATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING, RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MCS MAINTENANCE  
AS IT SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT.  
THE MOVEMENT OF THESE MESO-BETA-ELEMENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS  
THE BULK OF THE MORE-AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW REMAINS DISPLACED  
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING  
OUTWEIGHING THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE  
STANDARD SEVERE HAZARDS OF DAMAGING GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO  
AROUND QUARTER SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MCS AS WELL.  
 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY  
SUNDAY AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS ROTATE OVERHEAD, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LIMITED  
GIVEN FAIRLY POOR VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. EXACT DETAILS  
REGARDING POTENTIAL INTENSITY (BOTH FROM A FLOODING AND SEVERE  
PERSPECTIVE) ARE NOT YET KNOWN AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE  
PREVIOUS NIGHT'S EVENT. RENEWED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THE EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE CWA REMAINS UNDER  
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS  
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND VICINITY.  
 
SINCAVAGE  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/05  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page