280  
FXUS64 KLUB 092319  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
519 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 513 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2025  
 
- SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FROM  
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
- SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2025  
 
STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST  
AREA AND POINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH FROM THERE ALONG WITH AN AREA  
OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY  
WESTWARD. THESE AREAS SHOULD COMBINE AND SURGE TO THE WEST AND  
NORTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HOW  
QUICKLY WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON HOW COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
BE. MOS IN GENERAL IS SLOWER WITH THE INCREASE TO CLOUD COVER AND  
THUS LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES THAN THE QUICKER AND WARMER NBM. GIVEN  
THE CURRENT PROXIMITY OF THE STRATUS AND THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL  
FLOW OFF THE DECK A QUICK RETURN IS EXPECTED AND HAVE THUS FAVORED  
THE NBM AND ITS LEANING ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SUITE. THIS  
HAS RAMIFICATIONS FOR EARLY MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS  
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE 290K TO 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES PUTTING  
IT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 875 MB AND 800 MB. THIS  
LIFT, WHILE NOT STRONG, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME  
PRECIPITATION WITH THE PROGGED COLUMN SUGGESTING PREDOMINATELY WARM  
RAIN PROCESSES POSSIBLY SUPPLEMENTED IN THE BOTTOM PART OF THAT  
LAYER BY SUPERCOOLED PROCESSES. THIS WOULD FAVOR DRIZZLE TO VERY  
LIGHT RAIN AND QPF ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN  
INCH. ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS AREA OF  
PRECIPITATION SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY COOL FOR  
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN TO BE A THREAT UNLESS ONSET IS SUFFICIENTLY  
DELAYED AND TEMPERATURES ALLOWED TO WARM. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF  
ALL THE ELEMENTS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE, SO NOW WINTER WEATHER  
HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED  
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME ON MONDAY AND BECOME MORE NEUTRAL  
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES HEADING INTO MONDAY  
AFTERNOON RELATIVE TO THE HIGHER POPS FROM MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD  
COVER AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS SUPPORT THE  
COOL END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH  
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR A WIDER DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TOWARD  
THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF  
INSOLATION, A SHORTER WINDOW FOR PRECIP, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
BIT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO  
SOUTH.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2025  
 
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO BE  
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. A SLIGHT LULL IN PRECIPITATION  
ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE CAPROCK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW EVENING.  
NBM WAS OVERZEALOUS WITH POPS DURING THAT TIME, THEREFORE WERE  
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO  
DIMINISHES AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT ROUND OF  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE FRONT BRINGING  
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND  
DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD WILL REINFORCE PRECIPITATION  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FOR  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK.  
 
GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT OF THE PATTERN STARTING WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST  
BRINGING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BEFORE A CANADIAN FRONT TRACKS  
THROUGH THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND  
LOCATION OF BOTH FRONTS IS UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT AS NAM HAS THE  
PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE  
THE CANADIAN FRONT CUTS IT OFF IN THE EVENING WHILE GFS AND ECMWF  
HAVE THE CANADIAN FRONT TRACKING THROUGH QUICKER. OTHERWISE, DRY AND  
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS SHORTLY BEFORE  
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN AT THE TERMINALS, BUT ANY RAIN THAT  
OCCURS WILL COINCIDE WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME VIS REDUCTION  
WILL BE LIKELY BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL IN VFR RANGE.  
 
 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...07  
LONG TERM....10  
AVIATION...51  
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