126
FXUS64 KLUB 062313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS EAST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE CAPROCK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LOW STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A NEUTRALLY-TILTING TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
VORTICITY LOBE, WHICH WAS WELL-DEFINED, ROTATING OVER THE SANDIA
MANZANO MOUNTAINS. THE DRY SLOT HAS SINCE PENETRATED W TX, WITH THE
SECONDARY, MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT ARCING TOWARDS THE NM STATE LINE ON
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW EMERGES OVER W
TX, WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WEAK ECHOES WERE ALREADY EVIDENT ON WSR-88D
IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE NM STATE LINE, BUT THE LINEAR CU FIELD
DEMARCATING THE POSITION OF THE SECONDARY FRONT HAS STRUGGLED
AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. FARTHER EAST, STRATUS
HAS SINCE ERODED ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK, BUT COLD AIR DAMMING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE EASTERN AREAS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE THICK STRATUS. LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WHILE CONTINUING TO SCATTER
OUT ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK, LEE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NM
BETWEEN ONM AND SRR, WITH A TROUGH BRANCHING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA
ALONG THE HWY-114 AND HWY-84 CORRIDORS THAT INTERSECTS ANOTHER LOW
NEAR ABI. COOL, MOIST, EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH, WHICH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN OCCLUDED
FRONT AS THE VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES OVER W TX THIS EVENING, WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT RETREATING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A PSEUDO-CYCLONIC
GYRE DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLLOWING THE COLLAPSE OF
THE OMEGA BLOCK. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-LEVEL FRONT, AND ADVECT EASTWARD QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION OCCURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW TODAY, AS THE
AIRMASS IS HEAVILY OVERTURNED BENEATH A PALTRY EML SAMPLED BY THE
12Z RAOB FROM WFO AMA. SUB-SEVERE-CALIBER WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO BRIEF DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PRIOR ASSESSMENT,
WITH A COOL AND DAMP NIGHT EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AS THE AIRMASS
BECOMES SATURATED. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT, BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF DENSE FOG WILL EVOLVE, WITH THE
BEST PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG NEAR CDS. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO
FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED AND CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED, MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONGRUENCE WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT ROTATES INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS VERY LOW
TOMORROW, AS THE MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM AMIDST A WEAK EML, BUT
A FEW STRONG GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, IN ADDITION TO INSTANCES OF
SMALL HAIL. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED, WITH
STORM CHANCES WANING BY DUSK AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLES.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
ALTHOUGH SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY, A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY MIGRATE OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK OFFERING A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING A CLOSED
LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF A BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WITH A SECONDARY, WEAKER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW
WILL TRY TO OPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST OPENS UP AND MOVES
EASTWARD TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE BIG BEND. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN OVERALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE PATTERN
WITH THE MAIN LOW OVER THE OZARKS TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THERE
COULD A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE
UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE, THIS SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL PATTERN AS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THAT SHOULD
FINALLY CHANGE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND CERTAINLY BY MONDAY WHEN THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST, AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE KLBB AND KPVW
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THESE TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AT KCDS, IFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL BUT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR OR VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING TO
IFR.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01
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