073  
FXUS64 KLUB 020456  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1056 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO THE  
REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM TO OUR SOUTH AND ADVECT  
TOWARDS THE CWA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF TX-114  
AND GENERALLY REMAIN PATCHY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED DENSE  
FOG IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO NEAR 1 MILE  
AT TIMES. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING.  
 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NEARS THE ROCKIES, A LEE CYCLONE WILL  
BEGIN TO FORM, AND THE HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO  
COMPACT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-END BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY  
CONDITIONS, WITH WINDS OF 40-45 KT A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE  
GROUND. MIXING WILL HELP TO BRING SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE  
GROUND AS GUSTS. THOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY  
CRITERIA (31 TO 39 MPH), IF FORECASTED WINDS INCREASE MUCH MORE, A  
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. CURRENT AREAS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST  
POTENTIAL ARE THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. ALSO, THOUGH NOT  
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS, LOCALIZED AREAS OF PATCHY DUST WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD START TO  
COME DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THEY  
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ELEVATED. GKENDRICK  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY  
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION  
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO  
THE NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HIT ON DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER  
JET AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT. WHILE VERY PLAUSIBLE, THE QUESTION  
THAT REMAINS IS IF HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WILL REACH THE GROUND.  
MOISTENING WILL BE FROM TOP DOWN, AND THE UPPER JET WILL PASS OVER  
HEAD FAIRLY QUICKLY LEAVING A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FOR MOISTENING TO  
OCCUR. VIRGA SHOWERS WILL, AT THE LEAST, BE POSSIBLE. WEAK UPPER  
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH SETTLES  
OVER MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP INTO THE UPPER  
60S/UPPER 70S MONDAY AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT ON  
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE  
FRONT AS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS BY HAVING THE  
FRONT THROUGH THE FA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS STILL  
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK BEHIND A  
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS OF THIS FRONT BEING  
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S IN THE SENSE OF HAVING A SIMILAR SETUP FOR  
RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE LOW CLOUDS  
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. ANY DEVELOPMENT  
OF PATCHY FOG WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KLBB. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS  
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE AT ALL  
THREE SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY  
TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH  
ALL THREE SITES TOMORROW NIGHT. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS  
THROUGH KCDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS TURNING  
TO THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM....51  
AVIATION...11  
 
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