652
FXUS64 KLUB 122312
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK,
BUT TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER EACH DAY.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY WEST OF
I-27. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST NEXT WEEK, FAVORING AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US, WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 592 DAM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS WELL SOUTHWEST FROM
A SFC LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY, WITH THAT FRONT ARCING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST DOWN TOWARDS THE TX PANHANDLE. AS OF 18Z/1PM, WTM OBS
PLACED THE FRONT BETWEEN DALHART AND AMARILLO, WITH SSW WINDS AND
CURRENT SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 90S OR HIGHER SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND
NE WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 80S NORTH OF THE FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SAG ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO OUR FA
TODAY.
A WEAK DRYLINE IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK,
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A SUBTLE SFC LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING TO KICK OFF A FEW
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL ACROSS A FEW CYCLES WORTH OF CAM RUNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ONCE AGAIN SHOW DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (DOWNDRAFT CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG), SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STAY WEST OF I-27, ALTHOUGH SOME EASTWARD
EXPANSION CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS COLD POOLS EXPAND. THE FAR
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE ALSO HAS SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE, POTENTIALLY SENDING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THAT TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND KICK OFF MORE STORMS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF OUR FA.
OVERNIGHT, A LLJ (40 KT WINDS AT 850 MB) ADVECTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD COULD KEEP SOME SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS (LESS THAN 15%).
HOT TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TODAY, AND AS OF 18Z/1PM WTM OBS WERE
ALREADY SAMPLING TEMPS AS HIGH AS 104 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK. AS
THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ON SUNDAY. WHILE SOME PRECIP
CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER TOMORROW, BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE WEST ACROSS NM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
INTO MON-TUES, THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER
THE SE CONUS, WHILE AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NW TRACKS ONTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WHILE THIS HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST, IT WILL ALSO INTENSIFY, SUCH THAT
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT VALUES DON'T CHANGE APPRECIABLE. AS SUCH, THE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST, WITH GUIDANCE DEPICTING A VERY
GRADUAL COOLING TREND AS TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON
THE CAPROCK BY THURS, WITH MID/UPPER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT NORTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL
DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE TX PANHANDLE ON TUES, BUT APPEARS LIKELY TO
STALL NORTH OF OUR AREA. SW FLOW BETWEEN TROUGHING OUT WEST AND
RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL PLACE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME NEAR
OUR AREA, BUT LIKELY FOCUSED A BIT TO THE NORTH/WEST. STILL, THIS
PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES DURING THE MID-
WEEK PERIOD. POPS INCREASE WITH NORTHWEST EXTENT (CLOSER TO THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND THE OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES), SUCH THAT THE NW PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE SEVERAL
DAYS WITH 40-50% (OR HIGHER) RAIN CHANCES, WHILE SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN THROUGH THURS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD, ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DIGS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
AND IS PROGGED TO EJECT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PRIOR WAVES, REACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FAVORS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING ACROSS OUR FA, WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE RELENTLESS SUMMER HEAT. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC NBM DROPS HIGHS INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA
BY SAT. IT'S A WELCOME SIGHT, BUT AS WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS
THIS UPPER RIDGE CAN BE QUITE STUBBORN TO BREAK DOWN, AND THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL ENCOMPASSES A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES,
RANGING FROM LOW 80S TO UPPER 90S DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING, HOWEVER STORMS CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP AND DIE RESULTING IN ERRATIC STRONG GUSTS. A
SHOWER CURRENTLY SITS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KCDS AND A SECOND STORM
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A STRONG OUTFLOW THAT
COULD IMPACT KCDS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL DIRECTLY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. LLWS IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KPVW AND KLBB.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...10
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