236
FXUS64 KLUB 172329
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
529 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
- SWATHS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
- COOL AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 85 ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM AN
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS IS HELPING KEEP BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TODAY. DESPITE
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS, ONLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY DROP TO 25 PERCENT THANKS TO DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ABOVE 30F. THE ONE CAVEAT IS FUELS IN THIS AREA HAVE
BECOME DORMANT AND ARE PLENTIFUL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
WEST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IND INTO MISSOURI, GREATLY RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FA. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL STILL
HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MILD, LOW 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TUESDAY. A PASSIVE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS, ALONG WITH
OVERHEAD RIDGING, WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE, MID
70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT W TX MID-WEEK. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL FEATURE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, WAVY
PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 AND WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF
THE PACIFIC BASIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH A CLOSED, MID-LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN, WILL BE DIGGING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IN THE
EARLY STAGES OF BECOMING NEUTRALLY-TILTED, AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH PIVOTING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC COAST UNDERGOES A WAVE BREAK AND
MODULATES THE POSITION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ALSO ECLIPSE THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, AS THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY ERODE THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE LAYER OVER THE
REGION WHILE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A 300 MB JET STREAK APPROACHING
100 KT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARDS W TX THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH A THICKENING OF THE OVERCAST DECK EXPECTED
AS HIGH-LEVEL, MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT, WITH ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WARM-CONVEYOR AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS TO
INTENSIFY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED WEDNESDAY, AS
SKINNY UPDRAFTS WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONG FLOW
AND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. HOWEVER, MOISTENING OF
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THETA SURFACES WILL AID IN LIFTING PARCELS
PAST THE LFC WHERE THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS (MID-LEVEL COOLING)
ADVECT AN IMPROVING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER W TX. NBM POPS WERE
SHAVED TO 30-PERCENT, AS COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY-SCATTERED WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
CONGRUENT WITH THE MOIST/THETA-E TONGUE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND CONNECT TO A LEE
CYCLONE IN THE TX/OK PH. A DRYLINE WILL BRANCH SOUTHWARD FROM THIS
LEE CYCLONE, WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
WARM-FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT POLEWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY. THE WARM-FRONTOGENESIS WILL HAVE RESULTED
IN THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THETA SURFACES, WITH
LARGE-SCALE MOISTURE RETURN RESULTING IN THE ADVECTION LOWER 60
DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. FARTHER
WEST, THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND NORTHERN MEXICO, AND WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE BY THURSDAY. SURFACE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN VEERED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE, WHICH WILL AID IN BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 70S ON THE CAPROCK DESPITE THICK
OVERCAST AND WEAK WIND SPEEDS. RAPID MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS WILL
OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL KS AND SURFACE WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE FROM CYCLOGENESIS OF
ANOTHER CYCLONE IN THE TX BIG BEND. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MOISTURE RETURN TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SYSTEM.
POPS ARE SET TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND POPS
GENERATED BY THE NBM HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ASSESSMENTS. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME, AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED
FOLLOWING THE WAVE BREAK OF THE NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGHING THE
PREVIOUS DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHERN TRANCHE OF THE PV RIBBON
TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE BECOMING CLOSED OFF DUE TO A POLEWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE JET STREAM, WITH ALL GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE
INDICATING THE FORMATION OF A CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT OVER W TX DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY, WITH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF GENERATING A LARGE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD AS IT ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. IT APPEARS THAT
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH BEING COMMON, ESPECIALLY AS HIGH-LEVEL FLOW BACKS
POLEWARD AND THE 300-200 MB TROUGH BECOMES OPEN WHILE THE MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE REMAINS INTACT. INTENSE, DIVERGENT OUTFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO IMPRESSIVE IRROTATIONAL WIND VECTORS ALOFT AMIDST THE STRONG
DIFLUENCE, WITH PWATS NEARING 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. MULTIPLE SWATHS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
FORECAST, BUT WHERE THESE SWATHS DEVELOP REMAINS A BIT NEBULOUS AND
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE VORTICITY LOBE AS IT
EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING, IT WILL OVERTAKE
THE DRYLINE. THE STRONG, FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE GIVEN SUCH AMPLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A RISK
FOR SEVERE-CALIBER STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE, AND WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY THE TYPICAL HAIL AND WIND THREATS GIVEN SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ALOFT
AND THE INTENSITY OF THE KINEMATIC FIELDS, ESPECIALLY IF A SQUALL
LINE EVOLVES IN THE CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM,
BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. POPS WILL
WANE HEADING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND THE LINGERING NBM POPS
FOR SUNRISE FRIDAY WERE REMOVED, AS NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL DISSOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS THE CYCLONIC GYRE TO THE WEST DISSIPATES. COOL AND DRIER
WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH, WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING BY EARLY AS NEXT WEEK.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 12 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...07
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