141
FXUS64 KLUB 092333
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IS
IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS OF 18Z. FROPA IS FORECAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FA BEFORE NOON
SUNDAY. LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS (JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL) WILL
EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT AS PRESSURE RISES OF 4 MB/HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW FROM A COMBINATION OF LIFT
FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL FORCING. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MORE CONVERGENT, THOUGH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FA. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. CLOUD COVER AND CAA WILL
KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY, BARELY REACHING INTO THE 70S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
RATHER BENIGN BUT WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH THE AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF OVERHEAD RIDGE AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. A PATTERN CHANGE IS PROGGED BY LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KICKED EASTWARD BY AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK. THIS MAY BE THE FIRE IN A SERIES
OF UPPER TROUGHS THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO HINTED BY
MODELS WITH THIS PROGGED PATTERN CHANGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY
DRYLINE CONVECTION. WHILE NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT, IT IS
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT MANY DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
INITIALLY STRONG BREEZES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
TURN TO A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING A SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
AND PERSIST TO OR BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY FALL TO IFR ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS ON SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW. FINALLY SOME SHRA OR TS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT KCDS, BUT PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY APPEARS QUITE LOW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30
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