278
FXUS64 KLUB 181722
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/NM
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD AFFECT LBB AND
PVW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FEATURE VISIBLE ACROSS THE IMAGERY CHANNELS THIS MORNING.
OUT WEST A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ON SHORE ACROSS THE
PACNW WHILE ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND AND FURTHER EAST HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST
MID AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WITH A TRANSPORT OF MOIST AIR
ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE EXPANDING AS IT CROSSES
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FA AND INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES
ALOFT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AN INFLOW OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. CONSEQUENTLY PW
VALUES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
TODAY AND BECOMING MORE WIDE SPREAD AND INTENSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHORTWAVE RIDING DEVELOPS ALOFT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE ACROSS THE
PACNW. THE LATEST GFS MOVES THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW DOWN THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY THEN INGESTS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE ADVECTING
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF
ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW BUT DOESN'T "PICK UP" THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. BOTH MODELS HAVE VARIED AMOUNTS OF PRECIP OVER THE CWFA
BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS IS A WEEK OUT WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END TO SILENT BLENDED POPS UNTIL THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE SOLIDIFIED.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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