744
FXUS64 KLUB 271142
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
542 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION,
STRATUS AND FZFZ THAT HAS BEEN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS ALL NIGHT
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD. MVFR TO IFR (PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY LIFR)
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE OVER KCDS AROUND 12Z. IT ALSO LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT KPVW WILL SEE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AFTER
13Z. AT THIS POINT, WE STILL EXPECT KLBB TO REMAIN VFR, THOUGH
WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS
CLOSELY. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY AROUND MIDDAY,
LEAVING VFR AT THE TERMINALS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021/
SHORT TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT PROVIDED A FEW WINTRY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING IS
MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, ALLOWING UPPER
RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, DRIER WESTERLY BREEZES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
CAPROCK AND INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. HOWEVER,
LIGHT AND RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
THESE POCKETS OF FREEZING FOG COULD LINGER ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW,
SWINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH, AND KEEPING THE COOL AIR IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION, STRATUS SITTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD, VISITING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING,
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S WHERE THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGEST, WHILE THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PROVIDE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. EVEN WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH VERY FEW CHANGES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE
SPREADING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND
FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM, LOCAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH
WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60'S ON
FRIDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS OFF OF THE
CAPROCK LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND AN ACCOMPANYING TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT, PWS
SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 3/4" OF AN INCH. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR A LIMITED WINDOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF RAINFALL. CAPE
VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED JUST A TOUCH FROM PREVIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE SO LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST. BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST
LEADING TO A DRY REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS THAT WIND SPEEDS
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (31+ MPH) FOR
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE WISHING
FOR SPRING, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. BUT DON'T BE FOOLED,
THIS IS STILL WINTER AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPEARS TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. /WCI
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
23/58/23
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