145
FXUS64 KLUB 062335
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY,
BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS QUIET, AS WARM (ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY) AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A WEAK
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE WINDS POST FRONTAL TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. AS A RESULT, THE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALONG WITH A SUBTLE DECREASE IN THICKNESS
VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN HEIGHT VALUES, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED FROM THE H5 RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S, AS LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEADED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WE BEGIN TO WARM UP ONCE
AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. PERHAPS A FEW AREAS
OFF THE CAPROCK REACH THE 80S, AS WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY
IN RESPONSE TO A LEE CYCLONE DIGGING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO
WITH WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
WE FINALLY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE HEADED INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST,
WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, AIDING IN
BENEFICIAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION VIA THE H5
JET STREAK. BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. ALL ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER PACED SYSTEM, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IF YOU ARE LIKE US
ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING AT THIS POINT! SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS OUR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS, AS THEY
TRACK FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, WHILE INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED, OFF THE CAPROCK MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
COMBINED WITH A NARROW TONGUE OF THETA-E ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE
BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
CYCLONE STRENGTHENS AND DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION,
THE H7,H8, AND H5 WIND MAXIMAS SET UP RIGHT OVER THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COMBINED WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RISES
SUGGEST SPEEDS JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
WHILE A MUCH DEEPER SECONDARY WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MORE NORTHERN
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL LIKELY DRY-SLOT OUR AREA, KEEPING
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER STILL KEEP
P A TINY FOOTPRINT OF QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE, BUT WE REMAIN A BIT SKEPTICAL ON
THIS GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. NONETHELESS, WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN NBM
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA GIVEN THIS IS
STILL A FEW DAYS OUT. PRECIPITATION MODE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX WITH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW OR ABOVE
FREEZING THANKS TO THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FROPA TRACKING
THROUGH. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIMITED, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED POST FRONTAL, AS COLD ARCTIC AIR FUNNELS
IN FROM THE NORTH, WHILE WIND SPEEDS BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH, WE CAN EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKER FROM WHAT GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING. WENT AHEAD AND OPTED TO LOWER MAXTS FRIDAY, CLOSER TO
MOS GUIDANCE, WHILE RAISING SPEEDS WITH A BLEND OF NBM 75TH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOLUTION. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WE EXPECTED THE COOLER WEATHER TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER, BUT ACTUALLY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL MUCH COLDER CONSIDERING THE
NUMBER OF ABOVE NORMAL DAYS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01
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