178
FXUS64 KLUB 011722
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMER/HOTTER WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
TODAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS AN INVERT MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION AND
A MID LEVEL LOW DIGS OVER SOCAL. WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
IN PLACE THANKS TO THE DEEP EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 60F MARK WITH PWATS
NEARING 1.7 INCHES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SO
HIGH AND QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.3"-1.2", A CHANCE FOR SPOT FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY AREA WIDE.
WPC HAS PLACED AN ERO (EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK) SLIGHT RISK
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM FROM MORTON TO LUBBOCK TO ASPERMONT WITH THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK. SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS MENTIONED ABOVE MAIN HAZARDS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WILL BE URBAN STREET FLOODING, FLASH FLOODING AND SPOTTY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS.
TOMORROW AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH AND LOW BOTH MOVE EASTWARD OUR
POSTURE REMAINS THE SAME WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF IS
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGH END. A WEAK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF I27 AND MID 80S EAST OF 127. TONIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN WARM AND ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE LAST BIT OF
RAIN CHANCES WILL COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CAPROCK BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH DRYING MID LEVELS POINT TO A LIKELY PRECIP-
FREE PERIOD. THAT PERIOD SHOULD BE BRIEF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION WHILE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
REACHED AS LONG AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST DOESN'T STRENGTHEN TOO
MUCH. THUS, DAILY 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SCT SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF MVFR
(KPVW) AND VFR (KLBB/KCDS) CONDITIONS. SHRA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA AFTER 18Z.
CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR 15Z TOMORROW. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS
FROM THE SE ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORM.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...28
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page