893
FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018
AVIATION
WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT HAS MADE IT THROUGH KLBB AND KPVW, STILL
A FEW MORE HOURS TO GO FOR KCDS. OTHERWISE, VFR TO CONTINUE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 207 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018/
DISCUSSION...
BLUE SKIES HAVE MADE AN APPEARANCE THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS
DRIER AIR AT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA. UPPER LEVELS REMAIN MORE MOIST BUT THIS WON'T LAST FOR LONG.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS A WEAK FRONT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DRYING AT
ALL LEVELS. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER WARMING
TODAY. THUS, HIGH TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONE MORE
DAY OF CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDING SETS UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN
REACH THE MID 60S.
SUNDAY, THE WEATHER STARTS TO TURN MORE FALL LIKE. THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH ALOFT SETTLES OVER SOCAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE
TO STREAM NORTH OVER THE AREA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE JUST EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA RULING OUT AREA WIDE PRECIP CHANCES. BUT, WEAK
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH COULD HELP
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO INTITATE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE W-SW ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONDAY, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AT ALL LEVELS AS
THE PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. THE LACK OF ANY REAL DYNAMICS
WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE MONDAY BUT, CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AREA WIDE AS THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FA. SHARP SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO
INTITATE POPS AREA WIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE DRYING BEHIND IT
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
99/99/74
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