670
FXUS64 KLUB 040113
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
713 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
- COLDER WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
- GENERALLY WARMER AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN INCH WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE PELLETS ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH A 20-25 DEGREE DEW
POINT DEPRESSION AT THE SURFACE. STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING OVER A FAIRLY DEEP 100MB LAYER FROM
750-650MB. THIS FRONTOGENETICAL LAYER IS SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE TO
EXTEND FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FA AT THE MOMENT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NOW HOLDS ALL OF THE
UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THE WEATHER MAKER WILL PRIMARILY BE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER UTAH TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS BY END OF DAY. THIS TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
FILL/SHEAR/DAMPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAKENING
AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AS OPPOSED
TO YESTERDAY WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE SUBCLOUD MOISTURE WOULD INITIALLY
BE LACKING, SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES ARE SHOWING SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH ADVECTION
AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE SUBCLOUD MOISTENING WOULD NOT
BE REQUIRED, THUS INCREASING THE ODDS OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND AND EXTENDING THE WINDOW OF SAID PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID,
THERE ARE STILL CONCERNS WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM. LOOKING AT A
SERIES OF TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOWS INITIAL
LIFT IS MAINLY IN A LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB AND IS MOSTLY
ISENTROPIC IN NATURE WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTOGENTIC COMPONENT THROWN
IN. THIS LIFT OCCURS IN A WARMER BAND OF THE COLUMN, FAR TOO WARM
FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH, RATHER FAVORING STRATUS CONTINUATION AND
POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH ANY SNOWFALL FAVORING SMALL ICE
CRYSTALS AND THUS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING. THIS LIFT
THEN DISSIPATES WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT NEAR THE 600 TO 500 MB
LAYER PICKS UP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF DENDRITIC GROWTH,
BUT MAINLY SMALL CRYSTALS ARE THE LIKELY FORM OF ICE NUCLEI, AND
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA, LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MORTON TO PLAINVIEW LINE HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF A DUSTING OF SNOW TO NEAR 1/2 INCH ACCUMULATION WITH
THE MAIN PERIOD OF TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND NOON THURSDAY. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS DURING THE PERIOD, BUT THE MAIN STORY IS KEEP THE NBM'S LIKELY
MENTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, TAPERING DOWNWARD TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THAT AREA. FINALLY, IN GENERAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FAVOR SNOWFALL, BUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ON THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE PRECIP FIELD MAY INITIALLY HAVE A BIT OF RAIN
AND/OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING AND A SLOW EGRESS OF CLOUD COVER THURSDAY SUPPORT
A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE WITH A SLIGHT TWEAK UPWARD TO TONIGHT'S LOWS
AND AN ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY'S HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVERHEAD THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AND COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50'S.
HOWEVER, THE COOL DOWN SUNDAY WILL BE BRIEF, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AIDED BY SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB WINDS. TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH INTO THE 70'S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF LOW CIGS TO THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CIGS DIPPING DOWN INTO IFR
CATEGORY FOR ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE VISBY
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AT THE
MOMENT. THE KCDS TERMINAL WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY DROPS IN VISBY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO
SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF SNOWFALL AT KLBB
AND KPVW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>029.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...01
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