696  
FXUS64 KLUB 131107  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
607 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
 
TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE  
TODAY, THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE CURRENT OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE  
FLATTENED TEMPORARILY BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE  
REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH, STRETCHING FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE,  
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO  
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD FROM  
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS  
WILL HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS  
THE FA AND WILL ALSO HELP LOWER AFTERNOON RH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
ALSO BE WARMER, MID 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TO AROUND 60S  
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES, AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 5-10 MPH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
 
THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON  
MONDAY WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT COULD RESULT IN  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ITS EAST AND/OR STRONG WINDS TO ITS WEST.  
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER  
PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER  
WESTERN COLORADO STATE LINE AT 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING  
THE DRYLINE PUSH A BIT TO THE WEST, LIKELY STAYING WEST OF THE  
ESCARPMENT AT LATE AFTERNOON WHICH IN TURN WOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR  
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE MOIST SECTOR, ASSUMING  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS NOT TOO GREAT. BACK IN THE DRY THIS PATTERN  
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  
WILL NOT GET HUNG UP ON DETAILS THIS MORNING GIVEN EXPECTATION OF  
MORE GUIDANCE CHANGES IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THESE TRENDS  
WERE NOTED IN THE 00Z NBM INITIALIZATION WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED  
AT THIS TIME.  
 
MOVING PAST MONDAY, THE SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED NATURE OF THE LOW  
WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY  
EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING  
PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENTS AT THAT TIME. FINALLY, SIGNIFICANT CHANGES  
IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA ARE NOTED  
RELATIVE TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA  
AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS NOW FAVORING A DEEP LOW OVER  
ONTARIO WITH MUCH LESS ENERGY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROUGH OVER  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE FAVORING ZONAL FLOW OR SHORT WAVE RIDGING  
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NBM IS HANGING ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE  
MENTION FOR POPS FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST, A SCENARIO THAT IS LOOKING  
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT MODELS, BUT WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER CHANGES WILL KEEP THAT GOING IN THE FORECAST  
FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...51  
LONG TERM....07  
AVIATION...51  
 
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