261
FXUS64 KLUB 200537
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- AN EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
OUR EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE CONTINUES AS A ~596DAM H5 RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE DESERT SW. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EXPANSIVE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE PROGGED TO TAKE ONLY A VERY SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT THURSDAY, A VERY MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 60+ DEGREE LOWS LIKELY OFF THE
CAPROCK AS MODEST WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER EXCEPTIONALLY HOT DAY BY MARCH STANDARDS GIVEN THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS AGAIN EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S, AND A FEW LOW 100S WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THE RECORD HIGH OF 93 AT
LUBBOCK AND 100 AT CHILDRESS WILL BOTH BE WITHIN REACH, BUT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FRIDAY GIVEN VERY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
SATURDAY IS STILL LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH YET TO
OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE RIDGE
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO FLATTEN AND DEAMPLIFY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING
MOVES OVER THE PACNW REGION. EVEN SO, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AIDED BY
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER NE NM AND SE CO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CERTAINLY REMAIN A POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY NATURE OF THE
VEGETATION ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS, WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ON SUNDAY, THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE BAJA COAST
OVER NORTHERN MX AND INTO CENTRAL TX. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH CONSENSUS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100,
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING
BRINGS STRONGER WEST WINDS. BEYOND THAT, MONDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF
COOLDOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93
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