366  
FXUS64 KLUB 110818  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
318 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA TODAY  
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A LEE-SIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN  
NM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
CWA AND TAP INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS  
THE ENTIRE CAPROCK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND FORCE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO  
THE SINGLE DIGITS. SUNNY SKIES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES WILL RESULT  
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE DRY AIRMASS COMBINED  
WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL  
ELEVATE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CAPROCK WARRANTING AN RFD. THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WON'T LAST LONG HOWEVER. A CLOSED UPPER  
LEVEL LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  
LATE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 8-10 MB/3  
HR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS, POTENTIALLY  
TO ADVISORY LEVELS, LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST THIS PACKAGE.  
 
THE INITIAL COOL DOWN WILL BE PROVIDED BY TONIGHT'S STRONG LATE-  
NIGHT FRONT. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND VEERING MORE EASTERLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM OVER THE REGION ON  
MONDAY, AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES  
WON'T RISE ABOVE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST SPOTS. SURFACE  
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE CENTER OF THE NATION THROUGH  
THE COMING WEEK AND THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL AND INCREASINGLY  
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE LOCALLY.  
 
ALOFT, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SOME  
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD CUTS OFF INTO AN  
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED  
TO DROP ANCHOR OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN LOW IS  
PROGGED TO OPEN AND SPLIT INTO SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY LATE WEEK  
WHEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CANADA. SOUTH OF THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY  
FLOW WILL CARRY THE OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION,  
SPURRING WEAK LIFT AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. INITIALLY, RELATIVELY  
DRY LOW-LEVELS MAY TEMPER RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. GIVEN  
THIS, WE HAVE TEMPERED BACK POPS FROM THE NBM, MORE IN LINE WITH THE  
MOS GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY  
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL BE  
CONTENDING WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH COULD CUT INTO RAIN  
CHANCES/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. EVEN SO, THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC  
RAIN CHANCES, AND WE HAVE POPS MOSTLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE  
CATEGORY. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES ALSO INDICATE WEAK ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY AT TIMES, SO WE HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED A MINIMAL THUNDER  
MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY, THE NWP  
CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON RAIN TOTALS, NOW SHOWING GENERALLY LESS  
THAN AN INCH OVER MOST/ALL OF THE CWA (AND UNDER A HALF INCH FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT MAYBE MORE EASTERN ZONES) FROM TUESDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
THICK CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN (HOPEFULLY!) WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
WELL BELOW AVERAGE. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE  
COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE  
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL UPPER  
LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST, SO AT LEAST LOW POPS REMAIN  
INTO THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL  
RESIDE WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WARM DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A  
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE VERY LOW RHS,  
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FROM MORE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER TODAY. THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN COMBINATION WITH GREENER  
GRASSES AND MAX RFTI VALUES OF 1 AND 2 WILL STILL WARRANT A  
RANGELAND DANGER FIRE STATEMENT.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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