114
FXUS64 KLUB 290552
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COLDER WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- GENERALLY COOLER AND DRY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHES FROM SPEARFISH, SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SARATOGA, WYOMING AS OF 10 PM. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND BEGIN
PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 15Z, BEING SOUTH OF THE FA
WELL BEFORE 18Z. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE
RATHER TRICKY AND WILL FULLY RELY ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. WHILE
THE FASTEST MODEL, THE NAM, HAS THE FRONT ENTERING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BY 15Z, IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THEN. MODELS TEND TO BE SLOWER
WITH FROPAS, ESPECIALLY STRONG FRONTS. THE SOONER THE FROPA, THE
COOLER THE HIGH TEMP. GIVEN THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT,
HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM NBM. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM COOLING TOO QUICKLY WILL BE CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE WINDY SIDE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL THANKS TO PRESSURE RISES OF
ROUGHLY 2-4 MB PER THREE HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MORE EASTWARDLY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED CAA WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SUNDAY WILL START OFF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. AS THERE WILL BE SURFACE SE FLOW, MUCH OF THIS COLD
AIR WILL ORIGINATE FROM ALOFT WITH 1000-850 MB AND 1000-700 MB
THICKNESSES SPECIFICALLY DROPPING QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT THEY ARE
NOW. HIGHS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE EITHER SIDE OF 40. THE COLDEST AFOREMENTIONED THICKNESSES WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST MONDAY, ALTHOUGH A SECOND SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY NW FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD AS SURFACE SW FLOW RETURNS
SOUTHEAST OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE. DESPITE NE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY, HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY DROPS HIGHS BACK INTO THE
40S BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY
THE GFS SHOWS QPF FARTHEST WEST, WITH OTHER MODELS KEEPING IT TO THE
EAST OF OUR CWA. THUS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES HAVE BEEN PUT IN THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, IN SHORT EXPECT A DRY
WEEK WITH GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
MVFR/BORDERLINE IFR CIGS HAVE MOVED BACK OVER PVW AND LBB AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
TERMINALS BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF CYCLE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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