362  
FXUS64 KLUB 010523  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023  
 
THE OVERALL PICTURE IS THAT A LEADING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL LEAD TO  
AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT,  
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LARGE SCALE  
ASCENT INCREASES AREAWIDE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST SOUTH  
PLAINS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING WHERE  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND  
HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO FLOODING.  
 
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM  
NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST  
AREA WHICH CAMS INDICATE WILL QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR AND MOVE EAST AS  
A QLCS. FORECAST MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK  
SHEAR OF 35+ KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL  
POSE PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALTHOUGH A  
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM  
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAD STALLED AND WEAKENED IN THE SOUTHERN  
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR AND ALONG HIGHWAY 380 AS INDICATED  
BY A MORE PROMINENT CU FIELD EARLIER TODAY AND WILL BE ANOTHER  
AREA TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THE SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE 500 MB UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST  
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A  
250 MB JET STREAK BECOMING SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE  
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOWER, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH  
FLOODING WILL REMAIN PRESENT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED  
LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023  
 
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE INITIAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING  
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO  
COLORADO. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BE APPROACHING THE  
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACCOMPANIED BY A 100KT 250 MB  
JET STREAK. WE MAY START OFF THE DAY WITH SOME STRATUS BUT THESE  
CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING AS STRONGER MIXING  
OCCURS. A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE WITH  
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG TO THE EAST OF IT.  
THE STRONGER JET STREAK WILL ALSO RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR  
VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS  
THE SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT. MESOSCALE DETAILS  
WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN EXACTLY HOW THE DAY PLAYS OUT BUT ALL  
SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK  
WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AS AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS. BUT PERIODS OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH  
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS EACH DAY. /WI  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
SPOTTY SHOWERS AT THE LEAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS  
WITH SOME AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE  
LATTER WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. BETTER  
CHANCES FOR TS AT THE TERMINALS WILL COME EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH RICH LOW TO MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT  
KLBB AND KPVW AFTER SUNRISE OWING IN PART TO THE RICH MOISTURE IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027-028.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...17  
LONG TERM....58  
AVIATION...07  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page