553
FXUS64 KLUB 262327
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING UP TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGHING WAS LOCATED OVER TEXAS,
PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NNE FLOW ALOFT. AS AN UPPER LOW
CROSSING INTO SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, THE RIDGE
SHOULD FLATTEN AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE THE TROUGH IN TX EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
AT 500MB, A WEAK LOW OVER AR WILL STRENGTHEN AND MEANDER
NORTHWESTWARD, CAUSING HEIGHTS TO FALL SLOWLY OVER THE CWA THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, POPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST TXPH. 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 30KT AND ELEVATED CAPE BETWEEN
300-800 J/KG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE SOURCE OF GREATEST CONVERGENCE, A
LEE SURFACE TROUGH, IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE TX/NM STATE
LINE OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS WEST OF THE MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT IS A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR ISOLATED OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LIKELY SETTING UP NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR.
THIS AREA WAS THEREFORE GIVEN AN ISOLATED MENTION. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.
DESPITE GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB, THICKNESSES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH, SUGGESTING THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR AVERAGE. IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TXPH AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED,
AND GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, AN ISOLATED
MENTION WAS ADDED FOR THESE AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
A QUIET FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HELP PUSH THE UPPER
HIGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, EASTWARD BEFORE SETTLING
OVER TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING THE UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS NEAR/OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM.
THOUGH BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM HOT/DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD WITH
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF LBB AND PVW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST TIME WINDOW FOR
THIS POTENTIAL IS FROM 07 UTC/2 AM CDT TO 11 UTC/6 AM CDT.
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT LBB AND/OR PVW REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF TSRA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FAVORING THE CDS TERMINAL FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACTS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY LOWERING VSBY AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY T-STORM
ACTIVITY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...33
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