763  
FXUS64 KLUB 071125  
AFDLUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
625 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT  
IS APPROACHING PVW AND SHOULD STALL NEAR THE TERMINAL LATER THIS  
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS ISO-SCT TS DEVELOPMENT  
BY 20Z OR SO, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE IMPACTING PVW IS TOO LOW AT  
THIS TIME. ANY TS WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG WINDS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
LAST EVENING'S CONVECTION WRAPPED UP SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LEFT  
A FEW INSIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER, A  
MORE SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW WAS EDGING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN TX  
PANHANDLE COURTESY OF AN MCS IN EASTERN CO. THIS SW-NE BOUNDARY HAS  
A GOOD CHANCE OF STALLING IN/NEAR OUR NW ZONES BY LATE MORNING.  
COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF RICH PWATS AROUND 1.4" ALIGNED NEARLY ATOP  
THIS BOUNDARY AND MODEST CINH, THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON INITIALLY NEAR THE  
BOUNDARY, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN  
SOUTH PLAINS. EXPANDED LOW POPS EAST TO ROUGHLY ALONG A CDS-LBB LINE  
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME EASTWARD OUTFLOW PROPAGATION, YET THIS POTENTIAL  
WILL BE HINDERED MORE THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING  
EXPANDING WEST OVER MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANEMIC DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR AND SIZABLE DCAPE WOULD AGAIN OPEN THE DOOR TO LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAIN AND MICROBURSTS, RESPECTIVELY BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES TOWARD  
MIDNIGHT. LASTLY, TEMPS HAVE STILL BEEN RUNNING ABOVE THE NBM AND  
MOS IN RECENT DAYS, SO ADJUSTED HIGHS AND LOWS TOWARD THE MILDER  
BCCONSMOS FOR MOST AREAS.  
 
LONG TERM...  
FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH WARMER THAN  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD  
AND PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
 
WE WILL START THE PERIOD FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER-HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE  
RED RIVER REGION, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS, AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OFF THE WEST COAST, AND AN UPPER  
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS / SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WITH  
THE UPPER-HIGH BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE REGION, THICKNESS WILL  
GENERALLY STAY THE SAME AS TODAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK, NEARING 105F ELSEWHERE. WITH A LITTLE  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH, PRECIPITATION WILL  
DEVELOP NEAR ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A "COLD" FRONT THROUGH THE  
REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER  
AGREEMENT REGARDING UPPER-HIGH MOVEMENT AND WHERE THE UPPER HIGH  
WILL END UP GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER  
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST DIGS SOME. IF THE HIGH CONTINUES ON ITS  
CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK, IT WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT COOL DOWN AND  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR A CHUNK OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE NBM VALUES FOR BOTH  
TEMPERATURES AND POPS THOUGH THERE IS TIME FOR GUIDANCE TO CHANGE,  
SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES! GKENDRICK  
 

 
   
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
93  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page