450
FXUS64 KMAF 162321
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS, HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS OVER GUADALUPES INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
AND PLAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY AND EDDY COUNTY, WITH A WIND-
DRIVEN FIRE THREAT DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY TO MID-WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
ARKLATEX, AND A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, LEAVING WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA, INSOLATION WILL
COMBINE WITH MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WEST, AND RETURN FLOW IN
THE EAST, TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 15 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH THE BAY AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH FORECAST TO FOLLOW A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHT, A SOUTHWESTERLY, 30-40 KT LLJ BEGINS INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE TROUGHING MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS MIXING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS LIKEWISE AVERAGING OVER 15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THIS
FORECAST.
TUESDAY, THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. THE NAM DEVELOPS AN IMPRESSIVE MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE
OVER THE GUADALUPES DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND 700 MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS TO ~ 95M/200NM, SIGNALING A HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MOS HAS INCREASED, AS WELL. DESPITE RAINFALL A FEW DAYS
AGO, HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE WHERE THE LEAST RAIN FELL, AND NASA
SPORT PRODUCTS SHOW FAIRLY DRY SOILS OUT WEST, SO BLDU IS A
LIKELY. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, WE'LL UPGRADE/EXPAND THE
HIGH WIN WATCH TO A WARNING, AND ISSUE A BLDU ADVISORY FOR
STARTERS. DOWNSLOPE WARMING BE NEGATED BY A PAC FRONT, RESULTING
IN ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY. HOWEVER, TUESDAY
WILL PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST, FEELING MORE LIKE
EARLY APRIL THAN MID FEBRUARY.
TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNDOWN, BUT
MOMENTUM IN THESE EVENTS USUALLY PROLONGS ELEVATED WINDS FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER, AND WE'LL RUN THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
EVENING. DESPITE THIS CONTINUED MIXING, AND CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO ~ 10-15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING IN THE TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN BEGINS TO
FLATTEN INTO MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE 15F TO 30F ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CONSISTENT THEME WILL REMAIN THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN US AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US KEEPS MOST STORM
SYSTEMS ON A EAST-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY NORTH OF THE AREA, AND WITH
IT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
THE AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S F, 90S FOR THE
BIG BEND OUTSIDE OF THE MARFA PLATEAU AND IN THE 60S AND 70S F
FROM THE MARFA PLATEAU INTO THE SE NM PLAINS. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AS A MOUNTAIN WAVE
SIGNATURE FROM 700- 500 MB FORMS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING FROM THE PACIFIC SW INTO THE CO ROCKIES WHILE
THE HIGHEST WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A
RESULT, APART FROM THE GUADALUPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS OF CULBERSON COUNTY INTO EDDY COUNTY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 45 KNOTS HAVE HAVE RESULTED IN
UPGRADING OF HIGH WIND WATCHES TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE HIGH WIND
PRODUCTS ELSEWHERE WHERE BOTH NBM AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT
MOST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRIER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S F RATHER THAN 30S F ADVECTS IN
AND THE DECREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ENABLES MORE EFFICIENT
OVERNIGHT COOLING, BUT THAT WILL BE OFFSET BY GUSTY WINDS
MAINTAINING MECHANICAL MIXING. THEREFORE, LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 40S TO MID 50S F, WITH
EXCEPTION OF 30S F FOR THE SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF THE MARFA
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. THE SLOW COOLING TREND CONTINUES
THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO WEDNESDAY BUT COOLER BY A FEW
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY SE NM PLAINS, BUT AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT CONSEQUENTLY EXIT THE
AREA, WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY. THURSDAY NIGHT IS SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH WITH COOLER
LOWS IN THE 30S F EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN EDDY COUNTY AND INTO THE
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL AS PEAKS OF THE MARFA PLATEAU.
MODEL SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS AFTER MID-
WEEK, BUT THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN AND SLIGHT TROUGHING
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO 70S F, UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S F GUADALUPES, AND 80S F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHILE
LOWS FALL INTO THE 30S F FOR WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NORTHERN EDDY INTO LEA COUNTIES AND PEAKS OF DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AND LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S F BEYOND THE
MID TO UPPER 30S F TRANSITION ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN. THE WEEKEND IS MORE OF THE
SAME: A COOLING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, MORE DURING THE
DAY DURING THE NIGHT. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE NBM DO NOT GET OUT OF
THE 70S F NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY, WITH
60S F AND 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE LOWS FALL NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS AND
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, NEAR FREEZING ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INTO
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN, AND 40S F ELSEWHERE.
NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE QUASI-ZONAL
TROUGHING BOTTOMS OUT SUNDAY, LEAVING HIGHS IN THE 60S F, 50S F
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN,
AND 70S F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. ALL IN ALL, NOT A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD APART FROM
THE WINDS. THESE WINDS MID-WEEK HOWEVER WILL IMPART AN INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER RISK AFTER THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HELP
DRY OUT FUELS. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY BLDU TUESDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY AT
CNM, HOB, PEQ, AND INK) AS WINDS INCREASE, GUSTING UP TO 30-40KTS AT
ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEFORE SHIFTING WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 51 82 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 49 74 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 49 88 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 52 87 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 51 64 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 46 75 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 41 77 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 51 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 50 80 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 46 80 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TO 11 PM CST /10 PM
MST/ TUESDAY FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ANDREWS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-
LOVING-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WINKLER.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM CST TUESDAY FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
NORTHERN LEA.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL
LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM MST TUESDAY FOR SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...55
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