262
FXUS64 KMAF 190650
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 149 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE
TRENDING UPWARD BY MIDWEEK.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%) RAIN
CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
WE'VE HAD A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER
N. MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. CLOUDS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATER TODAY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME
MAKING IT TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL INITIALLY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, BUT
ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHT QPF.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH, BUT A FEW
AREAS COULD PICK UP MORE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE WE DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY COULD STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER. FURTHER WEST, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S AS CLOUDS BREAK
LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
TEMPERATURES HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS AND SURFACE FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING OUR
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. THE
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED STORM IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, AS POST-FRONTAL
NORTHEAST FLOW VEERS BACK TO SOUTHEAST, BECOMING MARGINALLY GUSTY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, LOWER IN
THE SOUTHEAST. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY
NIGHT, MVFR CIGS ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH INTO KFST/KPEQ AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 70 49 62 52 / 0 20 50 10
CARLSBAD 70 47 74 51 / 10 30 30 10
DRYDEN 65 51 63 53 / 30 30 30 10
FORT STOCKTON 68 49 71 52 / 20 40 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS 60 45 68 51 / 10 30 20 10
HOBBS 70 46 68 49 / 0 30 40 10
MARFA 62 40 71 44 / 30 30 30 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 70 50 63 53 / 0 30 40 0
ODESSA 69 49 64 54 / 0 40 40 0
WINK 70 49 71 53 / 10 40 30 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...99
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