995
FXUS64 KMAF 152300
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 459 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN A ROLLER COASTER OF
TEMPERATURES.
- SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE FORECAST WITH
WIDESPREAD 20S AND TEENS.
- THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING IN THE PRESIDIO VALLEY
AND BIG BEND AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WARM CONDITIONS TODAY
TURN MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND. THIS COURTESY OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. AT THE
SURFACE, THE SAME LEE TROUGH THAT AIDED IN TODAY'S WARMTH PRODUCES A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SWINGS A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT YIELD LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY MOST OF THE DAY, MAINLY WITHIN THE PERMIAN
BASIN. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S FOR
MOST, WITH 60S IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT ALLOWS WINDS TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES
DIP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE MARKED BY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY AND LOOKS TO
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL
(50S AND 60S) ON SUNDAY AND DIP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST THAT NIGHT.
THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND 50S FOR MOST, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLDER WEATHER HANGS ON THROUGH
TUESDAY AND AT THE SAME TIME, GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW (10-20%)CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS BIG BEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY
DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARDS OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS,
BREEZY AT SOME TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING
LIGHTER 01Z-03Z, THEN SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 08Z-11Z AND FURTHER TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST 14Z-17Z, FOLLOWED BY EAST/SOUTHEAST 20Z INTO
END OF PERIOD. GUSTIEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR TERMINALS OVER LEA
COUNTY AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS FOR THE REST
OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL END OF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 37 55 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 39 56 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 41 65 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 43 58 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 38 51 31 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 37 54 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 31 59 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 39 55 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 40 55 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 37 56 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94
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