835
FXUS64 KMAF 281148
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (30-70 PERCENT) OF A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BRING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN 4 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, VAN HORN/I-10
CORRIDOR, UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WHILE AN
ATTENDANT WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN
MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS FEATURE SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY PICKING UP TO
20-30 MPH AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY APPEAR TO STAY JUST SHORT OF OUR LOCAL WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA ISSUANCE, BUT THIS FRONT WILL STILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER OUR MOUNTAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE COOLER, BUT STILL QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
REACHING INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT
FOR WARMER READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ALONG THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS/SOUTHERN BIG BEND/RIO GRANDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO WHAT IS NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT 40S ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
ATTENTION THEN BECOMES FOCUSED ON OUR ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER
EVENT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BECOME FOCUSED IN A RATHER NARROW ZONE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS WITHIN W-SW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTENING GRADUALLY OCCURS IN THE MID TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS, GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT
RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL BE INITIALLY POSSIBLE BEFORE
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY SNOW OVER THESE
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY, WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 4-6 INCHES IS STILL FORECAST WITH THIS EVENT. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND BLOWING SNOW AND ASSOCIATED WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS,
WHICH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TREND DOWNWARD FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
THERE COULD STILL BE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES OVER THE
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, THOUGH WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED
TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EDDY COUNTY
NM ZONE. 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF LEA
COUNTY NM AND ADJACENT CULBERSON COUNTY TX WITH THIS EVENT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THESE
LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
(PERHAPS A VERY LIGHT DUSTING) OVER THE REST OF THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. SNOW CHANCES SHOULD TAPER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS LIFT WEAKENS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND
UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION, AND MAY STAY BELOW OR STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE CHILLY BUT SLIGHTLY
WARMER IN THE 40S OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (AND PERHAPS 50-55 ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE). LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN BIG BEND, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TUESDAY, THICKNESSES BEGIN INCREASING AS RETURN FLOW RESUMES, AND A
SLOW-BUT-STEADY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BEGINS. THE TRICKY PART ABOUT
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF SNOW COVER, MAINLY SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PARTS/HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS. ANY
SNOW COVER WILL PLAY HOB ON HIGHS.
NEW YEAR'S EVE WILL BRING IN 2026 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 2-3 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY, THANKS TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER RETARDING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
NEW YEAR'S DAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION,
SIGNALING THE ONSET OF A DRY SPELL. THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING, W/HIGHS INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
WHEN HIGHS TOP OUT ~ 12-15 F ABOVE NORMAL AS LEESIDE TROUGHING ON
THE FRONT RANGE INDUCES INCREASED WESTERLIES, PROVIDING A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING ASSIST TO THE MIX. A FEW HOURS OF HIGH WINDS ARE EVEN
POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES. SATURDAY, WESTERLIES CONTINUE
AS THE FRONT RANGE TROUGH SINKS SOUTHEAST, BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS FRIDAY. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S, IF NOT A SKOSH
COOLER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDERNEATH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 32 41 29 / 0 10 30 20
CARLSBAD 69 32 36 27 / 0 40 70 50
DRYDEN 81 42 47 36 / 0 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 75 38 40 33 / 0 10 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS 61 29 30 26 / 0 60 70 50
HOBBS 67 29 35 25 / 0 20 50 30
MARFA 69 27 40 23 / 0 20 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 34 38 30 / 0 20 40 20
ODESSA 72 34 38 31 / 0 20 40 30
WINK 72 34 37 28 / 0 30 50 40
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...21
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