379
FXUS64 KMAF 242308
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE AGAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INTRUDE UPON THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS EAST INTO TEXAS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S, WITH SOME READINGS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS REGION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE RECENT ONE,
BRINGING HIGH GAP WINDS TO GDP AND DROPPING HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ~
20-25 F FROM THURSDAY'S HIGHS. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WARM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, CLIMBING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA PRIMARILY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY, AS A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS KEEP A LIGHT, SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY (10-15 KTS) AT FST LATE THIS EVENING, CALMING DOWN AROUND
SUNRISE. BREEZY S/SE WINDS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED AT FST AND MAF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RECOVER. SINGLE-DIGIT RH RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ERCS 75-
96TH PERCENTILE, WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FUELS
REMAIN DRY/CRITICALLY DRY, AS WELL. THE ONE MISSING INGREDIENT IS
SUBSTANTIAL 20-FT WINDS. UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE, THEY JUST CAN'T
DEVELOP SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A WARNING ATTM. THAT SAID, ONLY
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT BEST ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THESE WILL BE ADDRESSED DAILY. TODAY, THE
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE GUADALUPES/DELAWARES, WHERE 20-FT WINDS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST, YIELDING A FIRE ENVIRONMENT OF 7-8 DUE TO THESE
INCREASED 20-FT WINDS. WE'LL ISSUE A RFD TO COVER THIS. THIS AREA
WILL POTENTIALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND THIS
MAY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. A RFW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS, BUT THIS IS TOO FAR OUT FOR
ANY PRODUCTS ATTM. INSTEAD, WE'LL HIGHLIGHT THE FRONT IN ROUTINE
PRODUCTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 59 95 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 56 98 57 100 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 57 93 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 61 98 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 54 96 55 97 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 48 91 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 59 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 55 96 58 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...95
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