525
FXUS64 KMAF 122255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND ARE FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY, BECOMING CENTERED OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WARM ROUGHLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LOWS TONIGHT SHALL COOL MAINLY INTO THE 60S. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 90S, WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS (PRIMARILY THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY),
AND AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SOARING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROP INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DAMPENS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROLLS OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS. REGARDLESS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAWS BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100S, WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND TRANS PECOS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN/NEAR THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH THESE CURRENTLY
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ELEVATED WINDS DEEPENS AND MOVES
CLOSER TO OUR REGION FRIDAY, KEEPING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSH FRIDAY'S HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THURSDAY'S. MANY PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH, OR EXCEED THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK, WHILE SOME AREAS WITHIN THE
BIG BEND TOP OUT NEAR 110 DEGREES, WHERE HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SKIRTING OVER THE PANHANDLE
DURING THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM, LOWER HEIGHTS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHOWER OR STORM MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN ALONG A RETREATING
DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING, BUT ODDS REMAIN LOW (10-15%) AT THE TIME.
OTHERWISE, DRY, BREEZY, AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGINNING THURSDAY, THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WEST
TEXAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEED OF FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, ENHANCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON
MOISTURE CONTENT, LIFT PROVIDED BY THE ADVANCING SYSTEM MAY HELP
TRIGGER SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE, HIGHS IN THE 90S BECOME
MORE PROMINENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GENERALLY RANGE WITHIN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 63 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 95 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 65 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 54 93 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 64 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 63 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29
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