653
FXUS64 KMAF 161026
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG BEND THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF SE NM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
RAPIDLY. STRONG GAP WINDS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS A BIT LONGER WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. RADAR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF RAIN STILL ACROSS THE BIG BEND
AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE COOL AIRMASS. RAIN
RATES HAVE BEEN PRETTY STEADY AT ABOUT 0.25" PER HOUR SO ANY
FLOODING SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH OUT FOR NOW AS ANY INCREASE IN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PROMPT A
FEW WARNINGS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO AND DECREASE BY SUNRISE
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
50S. YOU'LL WANT A JACKET AS YOU WALK OUT THE DOOR AS THE WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT'S IN THE 40S! THIS WILL BE OUR COLDEST DAY
SINCE LAST SPRING AS HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT
OF THE 40S DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE MAKING FOR A
CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 30S FOR MANY AND
COULD EVEN REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN OUR COLD FAVORED SPOTS (LEA
COUNTY, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS)! HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS AS THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE EARLY FALL. COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AND MORNING SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S/70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
NEXT WEEK, BUT MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS GULF MOISTURE SLIDES BACK INTO OUR REGION. RAIN
CHANCES STAY NEAR ZERO UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR HAS RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA AT KFST THIS
MORNING WITH NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 65 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 59 43 58 41 / 40 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 59 39 57 39 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 55 36 53 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 59 32 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 52 34 55 34 / 30 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 37 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 59 37 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 63 37 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SATURDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN
CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER
BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-
PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-
UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CENTRAL LEA-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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