244  
FXUS64 KMAF 211030  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
530 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, W/PLENTY OF MID/HIGH  
CLOUDS, BUT GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL  
BE SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO SE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY,  
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE  
60S FOR MOST, WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, AND  
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES,  
AND GIVEN CONTINUED EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, AREAS  
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WILL BE FAVORED  
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. BY THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY FLOW  
WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH  
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE 40S FOR MOST, AND 50S  
THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE AND LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEYS. A FEW  
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE  
VALLEY AND BIG BEND AREA.  
 
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DAY FOR MOST, WITH RAIN CHANCES  
CONFINED ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA AND LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND  
CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A BIG CHANGE IS  
ON THE WAY TUESDAY, AS THE PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN  
CONUS FINALLY BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD, ACCOMPANIED BY AN  
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IN TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP AREAWIDE  
TUESDAY,BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER  
TRANS PECOS AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER  
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,  
AS THE REMNANTS OF WILLA (CURRENTLY A TROPICAL STORM, BUT PROGGED  
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER WESTERN  
MEXICO) BECOME ENTRAINED AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST-  
NORTHEASTWARD. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH  
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE  
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO BE  
LIMITED, THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS  
TIME, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING  
OCCURS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING  
THIS SCENARIO FOR MIDWEEK, AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,  
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER  
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS LOWER  
ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE, GIVEN  
ANTICIPATED EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE COMBINATION OF  
CLOUDCOVER AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S  
FOR MOST.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TRANSITION TO  
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, YIELDING A RETURN TO  
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO  
SLOWLY MODERATE, THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLE  
NEXT SATURDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THOUGH LOCAL  
IMPACTS DUE TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 67 48 68 50 / 10 10 10 10  
CARLSBAD 65 47 71 52 / 20 10 10 10  
DRYDEN 67 53 64 54 / 20 20 30 20  
FORT STOCKTON 66 49 68 51 / 20 10 10 20  
GUADALUPE PASS 57 47 65 48 / 20 10 10 20  
HOBBS 63 46 68 48 / 10 10 10 10  
MARFA 61 45 66 49 / 20 10 10 20  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 48 69 50 / 10 10 10 10  
ODESSA 66 49 68 50 / 10 10 10 10  
WINK 66 49 69 53 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
44/84/44  
 
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