990
FXUS64 KMAF 190727
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, MAINLY FOR BIG BEND AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
LOW TO MID 100S.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF MIDLAND/ODESSA. MAIN THREATS WILL
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WHERE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WILL MAKE TO THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. SHOULD IT STALL OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE DRYLINE THAT HAS SETUP JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE CITY OF PECOS. SHOULD THE FRONT MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH
BEFORE STALLING, STORMS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS OR
PORTIONS OF BIG BEND. NO MATTER WHERE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BEING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING. FORECAST HIGHS WILL ALSO BE UNCERTAIN AS THEY WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN
REACH INTO THE 90S. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 80F.
BY TONIGHT, THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE DRYLINE ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PULLED WESTWARD WITH THE DRYLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, FORECAST PWATS MOVE TO BETWEEN 1-1.3" EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THIS WOULD RANK NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MAY 20TH. THIS SPRING SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS AND RAIN KEEP IT COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, DAYTIME CONVECTION BEGINS TO DECAY
AND MOVE TO THE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, RAIN CHANCES TAKE A HIT AND WILL BE LOW (10-
40%) OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES AND THE DRYLINE TO AIDE IN SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. MEDIUM TO LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS PATTERN IN THE AREA THROUGH THIS COMING
WEEKEND WITH EACH DAY HAVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THOUGH THIS WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME
WOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHICH COULD MOVE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN 12-15Z. IN
ADDITION, HAZE MAY REDEVELOP LIMITING VIS TO 4-5SM BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES BUT WILL KEEP VIS VFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECTED 12-16Z. AFTERNOON TS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ALL TAF SITES
THOUGH COULD AFFECT SOME LOCAL FLYING OPERATIONS.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 60 77 60 / 40 20 20 80
CARLSBAD 94 62 84 59 / 0 10 30 40
DRYDEN 96 68 87 64 / 30 10 30 90
FORT STOCKTON 97 65 87 62 / 10 10 20 70
GUADALUPE PASS 85 60 80 59 / 0 0 30 40
HOBBS 91 56 75 55 / 0 10 40 60
MARFA 92 53 88 52 / 0 0 40 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 61 78 61 / 10 10 20 70
ODESSA 94 62 79 61 / 10 10 30 70
WINK 95 63 83 60 / 0 10 30 60
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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