193
FXUS64 KMAF 272323
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- BLOWING DUST AND STRONG WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY CALMER WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
RETURN BY LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE SOUTHERNMOST
PARTS OF PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, DUE
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OR MORE
RESULTING IN BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO BETWEEN
ONE AND THREE MILES OR EVEN LOWER. HOWEVER, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
SUSTAINED ABOVE 35 MPH AND GUSTING TO 55 MPH OR MORE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT OVER THE GUADALUPES AND DELAWARES PAST THIS EVENING, SO A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THOSE REGIONS UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASE, BUT CAA PERSISTS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
DECREASE WITH CAA INTO THE 20S AND 30S F FROM THE 30S AND 40S F,
ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 40S TO 50S F NORTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE BASIN AND INTO THE 60S F FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN BY
SUNSET, THEN DOWN TO THE 40S AND 50S F BY MIDNIGHT, AND LARGELY
40S F BY SATURDAY MORNING. NBM INDICATES LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 30S F OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU, GUADALUPES, AND NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY BY THAT TIME, SO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FOR THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EVEN AS PROBABILITIES OF THIS
OCCURRING ARE LOW (<30%). LOW TO MODERATE (25% TO 35%) RAIN
CHANCES ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SINCE THERE IS NEAR
ABSENCE OF ANY SHOWERS ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AND DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOW AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WHERE ANY RAIN DOES FALL, ANY RAIN SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED.
A BRIEF SPELL OF MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS IN
STORE FOR EARLY THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE UP TO 20F TO 25F COOLER THAN TODAY AND 35F TO 40F
COOLER THAN THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND
50S F, 60S F RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BASIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
INTO THE 50S AND 60S F, 70S F RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S F BY EARLY EVENING. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S F AS
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEAST. AS WAA ENSUES ALONG WITH
HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INHIBITING OVERNIGHT COOLING, LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S F RANGE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING LARGELY REMAINS PRESENT INTO THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE APRIL TO EARLY MAY AND NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES TO
PREVAIL UNTIL THEN. NAEFS ENSEMBLE TABLES PREDICT PERSISTENCE OF
MID TO UPPER RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY, MID
70S TO LOWER 80S F BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN LEVEL OFF INTO THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S F, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING BREEZY ONCE AGAIN
WILL COINCIDE WITH REDEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF LEE
TROUGHING OVER WESTERNMOST TX AND CENTRAL NM AS EXISTING LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE TX INTO NE PANHANDLES BUILDS
BACK SOUTHWEST. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD A MORE
PERSISTENT DRYLINE THAT WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY, MID 40S F SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AND
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. WITH PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND NEAR
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. WITH THESE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S F, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
MID 90S TO UPPER 90S F ARE FORECAST MONDAY AS LOWS ONLY FALL INTO
THE 50S TO 60S F, APART FROM MID TO UPPER 40S F SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF THE MARFA PLATEAU. MONDAY HAS TRENDED WARMER THAN
TUESDAY IN TERMS OF HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AS BY MONDAY A
DRYLINE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST, BUT BEFORE AN
INTENSIFYING MID TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT AND WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY, PER FORECAST SURFACE FRONTAL ANALYSES MAPS AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, WE ARE NOW SEEING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 80S F, MID 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER TO MID 90S F
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, NORTHERN
STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHILE LOWS NORTH OF
I-20 AND FOR THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN DIP BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F RANGE, WHILE REMAINING IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S F SOUTH OF THERE AND EAST OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASING MID TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
BY THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, HALTING THE WARMING TREND
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THEM MORE SPRING-LIKE RATHER THAN
SUMMER-LIKE. THE ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN LARGE SCALE SINKING
MOTION FROM THE DAMPENED MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW PASSING
NUMEROUS MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH PARTS OF THE AREA.
LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THESE DISTURBANCES WILL GENERATE LIFT AND
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. CURRENTLY,
NBM DEPICTS A LOW (<30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. THE DISTURBANCES WILL AID PASSAGE OF
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE WEAK COLD FRONTS MAINLY ACCOMPANIED BY
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND SHIFTS. THESE PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S F ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN. AS A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY,
LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT PATTERN RE-ESTABLISHES, HIGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S F, MID 70S TO LOWER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY, AND
MID TO UPPER 90S F PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSAGES BEING CONFINED FAR TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN VICINITY OF
AN OSCILLATING DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA OFFSETTING
ANY CAA ACCOMPANYING FURTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGES WILL
REINFORCE THE LATE SPRING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SETUP. A DIURNAL
VARIATION OF AT LEAST 20F TO 25F MAINTAINS LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F, MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AS LIGHTER
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S F
WEST OF THE DRYLINE FOR THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
OVERNIGHT COOLING. THESE LOWS MAY TREND LOWER OR HIGHER DEPENDING
ON HOW FREQUENT THE ADDITIONAL MID TO LATE WEEK COLD FRONT
PASSAGES ARE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS BLDU SUBSIDES. NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING
BEFORE MOSTLY SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z. CIGS REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR (~35
TO 50KFT) THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 43 64 47 86 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 45 70 44 89 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 47 67 47 83 / 20 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 43 69 48 88 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 37 64 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 41 67 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 31 67 37 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 44 65 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 44 65 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 43 66 45 87 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CRANE-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN
CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-
MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN
CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA
PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY
PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...55
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