623
FXUS64 KMAF 012313
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
513 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A RATHER BANAL SHORT TERM PERSISTS, AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON ENSURES THAT DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE UPSHOT IS THAT A
WARMING TREND IS FINALLY HERE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE UNDER NEAR-MAXIMUM INSOLATION. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD AVERAGE JUST OVER 10 F HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S
HIGHS.
TONIGHT, LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AT
LEAST IN THE EAST, WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ~ 6-8 F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, OR
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, IF NOT A DEGREE ABOVE.
MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE RETURN FLOW
IN THE EAST, AND WESTERLIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ADDING A
DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO INCREASING THICKNESSES TO INCREASE
HIGHS ALMOST 10 F WARMER THAN TODAY, FOR HIGHS IN THE PLEASANT 60S
AND 70S, AROUND 5 F ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY NIGHT, UNFORTUNATELY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES BEGINNING
AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE IN TIME TO
AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 F WARMER
THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, DROPPING AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
FROM MONDAY'S. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR MOST, EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THOSE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S AREAWIDE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BRINGS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY,
YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, BRINGING
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY, YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST (EXCEPT 50S IN HIGHER
TERRAIN). THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, INDICATING A POTENTIAL WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS FAVORABLE ASCENT
AND MOISTURE REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE AREA.
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 32 66 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 31 68 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 33 66 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 37 73 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 38 57 39 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 30 65 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 29 67 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 33 66 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 33 65 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 30 67 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10
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