940
FXUS64 KMAF 182300
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS.
- LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) RAIN
CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER EACH AFTERNOON, WITH BEST
CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER TO THE EAST COAST. THIS INCREASE IN
THICKNESS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST (80S IN
HIGHER TERRAIN). THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HAS
BACKED OFF TO THE WEST, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) WELL WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING. MIXING WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO A
LLJ AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST.
THICKNESSES INCREASE SATURDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS SUCH, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME SPOTS IN THE
TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN WILL BE AT OR NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ANYWHERE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE SAME AS TONIGHT.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD EVEN FURTHER, ADDING ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO TO SUNDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST. PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS, BIG BEND,
AND SOUTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (10-30%) INCREASE A LITTLE
SUNDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY, ALLOWING
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DROP JUST A TAD FROM SUNDAY'S. A SURFACE LOW
SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH ITS TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS INCREASES
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-60%) OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MANY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (MID TO
UPPER 80S) AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (LOW 90S). THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW HANGS AROUND MIDWEEK AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE KEEP LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN (20-60%) WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. THE
GREATEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS (40-60%). OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAY IN THE 70S FOR MOST EVERY NIGHT IN THE EXTENDED.
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
VFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR TERMINALS OVER WESTERN STOCKTON
PLATEAU INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND SE NM PLAINS THROUGH 03Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FORECAST, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER FOR PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON
PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY, AND AGAIN 18Z-22Z SATURDAY AT
TERMINALS SUCH AS MAF AND FST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 97 72 98 / 10 10 0 10
DRYDEN 73 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 98 74 99 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 69 90 70 90 / 10 10 0 10
HOBBS 69 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 63 91 65 92 / 0 10 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 71 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 71 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page