911
FXUS64 KMAF 302314
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- LOW (15% TO 20%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- MEDIUM (35% TO 45%) CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EAST OF A DRYLINE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- STRONG WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SE NM
PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER THE
GUADALUPES ON WEDNESDAY. LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST
ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
FOLLOWING SHOWERS/STORMS HAVING DEVELOPED LAST EVENING DESPITE
LOW PROBABILITIES, THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK HAS BEEN THE INCREASE IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWER/STORM PROBABILITIES FROM NEAR ZERO INTO THE LOW (10% TO
20%) RANGE SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. THIS HAS OCCURRED AS
HIGH-RES CAMS HAVE TRENDED TO INITIATING MORE CONVECTION OVER
HEATED ELEVATED TERRAIN AND CONSOLIDATION OF LEE TROUGHING INTO A
DRYLINE HAS BEEN STRONGER AND OCCURRED EARLIER THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUNS. TODAY, THIS REGION OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ENCOMPASS
THE REGION OVER AND EAST OF THE EASTERN MARFA PLATEAU INTO UPPER
TRANS PECOS. VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS
SCATTERED CLOUDS DRIFTING WEST TO EAST IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
THAT HAS DEVELOPED AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS
HAS DEAMPLIFIED. WITH REMNANT WEAK RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SE
NM AND W TX, TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S F,
LOWER 80S F EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, INTO THE LOWER 90S F ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER FROM UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO SE NM PLAINS, BASINS OF
CULBERSON COUNTY, AND FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE REMAINING IN THE 80S F ELSEWHERE APART FROM
MID TO UPPER 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F, THEN LOWER 50S F MOST
OF PERMIAN BASIN, STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND TERRELL COUNTY, 40S F LEA
COUNTY INTO PRESIDIO VALLEY BY EVENING, WHILE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 30S F WEST OF THE DRYLINE FOR THE
GUADALUPES INTO WESTERN EDDY COUNTY. INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TAKING LONGER TO COOL OFF WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 80F, 70F
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER SUNSET, BUT ONLY BELOW 70F, 60F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F, LOWER TO MID 50S F MARFA PLATEAU INTO SE NM PLAINS AND
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF MARFA PLATEAU AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY.
TUESDAY, INCREASED MID TO UPPER TROUGHING WILL NOT YET HAVE
IMPINGED INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF LATE SPRING-
LIKE TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S F, 80S
F NORTHEAST OF THE MARFA PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER AND
RIO GRANDE BASIN BY LATE MORNING, MID 70S TO MID 80S F BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER
INTO MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL AS THE RIO GRANDE BASIN,
MID TO UPPER 80S F UPPER NORTH OF LOWER TRANS PECOS AND MARFA
PLATEAU INTO SE NM PLAINS, AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM PROBABILITIES
AGAIN TICK UP ABOVE NEAR ZERO INTO THE LOW (10% TO 15%) RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING EAST OF THE DRYLINE, THIS TIME OVER THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS INTO TERRELL COUNTY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
INDICATED AT THIS TIME AND NBM RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE REMAINED A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW
WILL PEAK WEST RATHER THAN EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND REMAIN BREEZY
AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, RESULTING IN A PACE OF
TEMPERATURE DESCENT SLOWER THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND LOWS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S F. THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVER AFTER TUESDAY. IN FACT, THERE ARE
INCREASING INDICATORS OF STRONG STORMS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND STRONG WINDS LATER THIS WEEK. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MID TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SEND
FREQUENT DISTURBANCES AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONTS
THAT PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FOCUSING OF MOISTURE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS, PAIRED WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND CIRCULATIONS NEAR THE DRYLINE AND MOMENTUM
TRANSFER FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE GENERATING GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S TO 80S F BY NOON WEDNESDAY, THEN
FARTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S F NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN
AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND EAST OF THE MARFA PLATEAU, AS
SHOWER/STORM PROBABILITIES INCREASE FROM LOW (20 TO 25%) EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MEDIUM (35% TO 55%) RANGE FOR EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN INTO EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO
40%) RANGE FROM NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS
DOWN TO TERRELL COUNTY FOR THE EVENING. SPC HAS CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED REGIONS EAST OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK, BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SEVERE RISK EDGES FARTHER WEST IF THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE (DEPENDENT ON FACTORS SUCH AS PRIOR
CONVECTION) ENDS UP FARTHER WEST. NBM INDICATES RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, BUT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BEFORE A MORE DEFINITE
PREDICTION OF THE FLOODING RISK CAN BE PROVIDED. TO THE WEST OF
THE DRYLINE, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH, HIGHER
OVER THE GUADALUPES AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 55 MPH,
AND ABOVE 65 MPH FOR THE GUADALUPES WERE INDICATED WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN PREVIOUS RUNS AS TRANSPORT OF WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, THESE
VALUES HAVE AGAIN TRENDED DOWN IN MOST RECENT RUNS. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, BUT WITHIN
DOWNBURSTS IN STORMS RATHER THAN IN THE AMBIENT FLOW. WIND
PRODUCTS MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SE NM PLAINS INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, HOWEVER,
WILL LEAVE THIS DECISION TO THE NEXT SHIFT SINCE ONSET OF STRONG
WINDS ONLY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE EARLIEST AND WINDS
HAVE NOT DEMONSTRATED A CLEAR UPWARD TREND BETWEEN MOST RECENT
RUNS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWEST. THE CAA ALLOWS LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S F FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU AND
WESTERNMOST AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN, 50S F ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND NORTHWEST
OF THE EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND
LOWER TO MID 60S F FOR THE LOWER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGHING FOR THURSDAY WILL BE OFF TO
THE EAST, WHILE MORE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS MAINTAINS SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE GUADALUPES INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND LEEWARD FOOTHILLS OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS INTO
UPPER TRANS PECOS. TEMPERATURES HAD TRENDED UP BY AT LEAST 5F TO
10F FOR WEDNESDAY, NOW SHOWING THURSDAY AS THE COOLER OF THE TWO
DAYS BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MID TO 80S F, MID TO
UPPER 70S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND LOWER TO MID 90S F ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE. NBM IS INDICATING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 30F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE DRYLINE SURGES
EAST, BUT DESPITE THIS LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT DEVELOPING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST AND DRAGS A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN FROM THE ROCKIES. WHILE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
SOUTHWEST, BREEZIEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE WILL BE LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND MARFA PLATEAU APART FROM
THE USUAL CALMER SPOTS NEAR THE PECOS RIVER IN THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS. POPS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE (30% TO
45%) - THIS TIME FRIDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE RETROGRADES TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES 40F+ INTO MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU - WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL NM AND THE CO
FRONT RANGE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, THE RISK
OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES FURTHER SPECIFICS ABOUT MOST LIKELY TYPES OF
SEVERE RISK FOR NOW. NBM IS INDICATING FRIDAY EVENING RAINFALL
TOTALS UP TO AT LEAST 0.25" TO 0.50" FORECAST APPARENT OVER THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. AS ON WEDNESDAY, TRENDS IN EXPECTED
RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BEFORE IT CAN BE DETERMINED HOW
HIGH THE RISK OF FLOODING MIGHT GET.
TROUGHING INCREASES FURTHER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL, DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1.5 TO 2.0
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALOFT AND NEAR AVERAGE AT THE
SURFACE, MEANING EARLY SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN LATE
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST EXTENDED STRETCH OF DAYS IN
A WHILE, DESPITE BROAD AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT REDEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S F, 80S
F RIO GRANDE BASIN SATURDAY, FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S
F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY, AND ONLY WARM BY A FEW
DEGREES, REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S F TO START NEXT WEEK.
ACCOMPANYING THESE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWS
FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN PROBABILITIES ARE APPARENT IN GRIDS FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY DUE TO MODELS
PICKING UP ON OVERRUNNING TO THE NORTH OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT CLEARS THE AREA CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES,
WHEN COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS FAR OUT DETAILS OF ANY RAINFALL CHANCES
AFTER FRIDAY'S STRONG STORM RISK REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AND
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS COOLER, EARLY SPRING-LIKE WEATHER BY THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS AS LIGHT WINDS VEER TO
SW-W. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TUESDAY, W/BASES ~ 5-11 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 91 63 90 / 0 10 10 20
CARLSBAD 55 91 60 85 / 10 10 0 10
DRYDEN 60 90 62 91 / 0 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 62 92 63 91 / 0 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 57 80 58 75 / 10 0 0 10
HOBBS 53 89 54 84 / 10 0 0 20
MARFA 47 84 49 81 / 10 10 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 91 62 89 / 0 10 10 20
ODESSA 60 91 62 88 / 0 10 10 20
WINK 58 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99
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