374
FXUS64 KMAF 170737
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
137 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS (15-20 MPH SUSTAINED) ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE BIG BEND, RIO GRANDE, AND PRESIDIO VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO FILTER IN COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THIS
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WITH 50S FURTHER SOUTH. BREEZY CONDITIONS (15-
20 MPH SUSTAINED), ALBEIT LESS BREEZY THAN YESTERDAY, ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND CLEAR SKIES PROMOTE
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME AREAS TO
FEEL THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA, WITH MID-TO-UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH (TEENS IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS). NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AS A RESULT, HIGHS MONDAY END UP IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW-TO-MID 50S ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND MUCH OF
THE TRANS PECOS. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE 60S
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA. BY TUESDAY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT TEMPERATURES
STAY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN IS MAINTAINED FOR THE BIG
BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL DEPICT MOST ACTIVITY MISSING OUR AREA
COMPLETELY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THESE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TREND. HIGHS BRIEFLY WARM ABOUT 3-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TAKE ON A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT YET
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING (OF COURSE, THE ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIME IS
STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT). THIS HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S (NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL) THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN BY SATURDAY EVENING.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS VEER TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 01Z-03Z SUNDAY FOR
TERMINALS ACROSS SE NM PLAINS, CENTRAL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN,
AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, BUT REMAIN MORE EASTERLY FOR TERMINALS ON
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. GUSTIEST WINDS FORECAST BETWEEN 14Z-23Z
SATURDAY AND LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 44 21 60 27 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 49 23 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 56 25 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 53 26 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 46 27 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 44 22 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 56 18 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 45 24 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 45 25 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 48 23 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...94
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