272
FXUS64 KMAF 250834
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
334 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS, THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR, GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, AND MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING THE RETURN OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 1:30 AM CDT SHOWS LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS. A ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS ROUND LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST STILL BRINGING THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT
OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SIMILAR AREAS.
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS FAVORABLE
TROUGHING LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
INVERTED-V PROFILES, ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, "SKINNY" CAPE
PROFILES, AND CONTINUED HIGH PWATS SIGNAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DUE TO HAVING CLOUD COVER EXITING
THE REGION VERY QUICKLY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE MID TO LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, LIMITING STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO
OCCUR. MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 80S BESIDES AREAS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND RIVER VALLEYS BEING IN
THE LOW 90S WHERE LESS CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10-30%) SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. LOWS DROP IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SATURDAY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION, SUPPLYING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MOST.
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGHING AND UPSLOPE
FLOW INDUCES ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, LOWER TRANS PECOS,
AND BIG BEND REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S REGIONWIDE. THE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
ON SUNDAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER TAKES SHAPE NEXT
WEEK. SEE THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW CHANCE
(10-20%) OF ISOLATED STORMS IS PREVALENT ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
THANKS TO UPSLOPE WINDS. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS WHAT IS GOING TO BE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO, WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM SUPPLYING MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, AREAWIDE
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS PWATS REACHING NEAR AND EVEN
EXCEEDING DAILY MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES TUESDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
RETURNS. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN TIMING, POSITIONING, AND
IMPACTS OF THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM CLOSELY. A PACIFIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SPANNING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO 80S.
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARM TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT KCNM/KHOB, WHICH
COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING. RETURN
FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, W/BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TERMINALS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT,
KINK/KPEQ.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 70 94 70 / 10 20 10 20
CARLSBAD 83 62 88 64 / 30 30 10 0
DRYDEN 92 72 94 72 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 89 70 92 69 / 30 20 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS 76 62 80 63 / 50 20 10 0
HOBBS 82 65 89 65 / 40 20 0 0
MARFA 82 59 85 59 / 20 30 50 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 88 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 20
ODESSA 87 71 91 71 / 20 20 10 20
WINK 87 69 92 69 / 20 20 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL LEA-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
NORTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99
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