888
FXUS64 KMAF 251102
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE STORM CHANCES INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
AN ACTIVE AND STORMY STRETCH IS COMING UP TO START THE WEEK. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DEVELOPING EAST WHILE ANOTHER
SIMILAR DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT
BASIN WILL CREATE A VARIABLE PATTERN FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RIPPLING
FROM WEST TO EAST IN FLOW ALOFT, CONCENTRATING FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AT THE SURFACE, A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL OSCILLATE OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA,
SEPARATING MORE HUMID AIR TO THE EAST CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S F FROM DRIER AIR CHARACTERIZED BY
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S F TO THE WEST.
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND SHEAR FROM THE DISTURBANCE AND TROUGHED FLOW
ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SPC HAS ONLY THE
WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA IN A MRGL RISK. THE MAIN RISK IN
STRONGER SHOWER/STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING, MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE REGIONS AND THE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT GIVEN SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF
UPDRAFTS IN STORMS ALONG WITH A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN STORMS. SOME HAIL ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS
TODAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S F WHILE LOWS SETTLE INTO
THE 60S F, 50S F WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN INTO MUCH OF THE SE NM
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
TOMORROW (TUESDAY) IS FORECAST TO BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER. 45% TO 65% SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY FROM ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE
GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ESSENTIALLY
CONTINUOUSLY RIPPLE THROUGH TROUGHING THAT IS SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. SPC HAS
THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY IN A SLGT RISK AREA AND THE
REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERNMOST PORTIONS. HIGH-RES
CAMS ARE DEPICTING MORE LONG-LIVED DISCRETE AND LINEAR STORM MODES
THAN THIS AFTERNOON, AS AN ENVIRONMENT OF 30 TO 40 KNOT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG PROVIDES THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. 0-3KM SRH WILL
INCREASE WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE EVENING OVER THE PERMIAN
BASIN PRIOR TO STORMS EXITING THE AREA, INCREASING THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WINDS WITH A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE MOST
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND/OR SHEARED STORMS. MEANWHILE, DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE CO-LOCATED WITH REGION OF MAXIMUM VERTICAL VELOCITY
AND INVERTED-V PROFILES AT THE SURFACE AS DEPICTED ON MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM 35% TO 45% CHANCE OF RAINFALL UP
TO AT LEAST 1" WHERE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR, WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
70S AND 80S F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING LIMIT HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET DURING THE
DAY. STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING AS RAIN CHANCES
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND DECREASE TO THE 20% TO 30% RANGE
OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TOMORROW NIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S F RANGE DUE TO THE COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOLER AND STORMY PATTERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
A WARMER, DRIER, AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST STORMS WILL
TRANSITION EAST OF THE REGION ENDING THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INDUCING MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LOW ISOLATED (10-20%) STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST. WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE RIDGE AXIS MAY TRANSLATE OVER OUR AREA AND BRING A LOW CHANCE
(10-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. BY THE WEEKEND, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKING SHAPE ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BRING MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
THE REGION.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z-02Z, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT TERMINALS OVER THE SE NM PLAINS INTO
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU
THEREAFTER, WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS. MAIN
IMPACT OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT TERMINALS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING, AND IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST FOR
TERMINALS, WITH STRONGER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS IN
SHOWERS/STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 64 79 60 / 0 10 80 80
CARLSBAD 94 60 79 57 / 10 90 60 10
DRYDEN 92 68 87 65 / 0 20 60 30
FORT STOCKTON 92 64 82 60 / 0 50 80 10
GUADALUPE PASS 84 58 74 56 / 40 70 50 10
HOBBS 90 59 74 55 / 10 70 70 30
MARFA 88 52 80 49 / 0 60 50 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 64 77 60 / 0 30 80 50
ODESSA 89 64 76 60 / 0 40 80 40
WINK 92 63 79 59 / 0 60 80 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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