010
FXUS64 KMAF 062311
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- LOW (10% TO 30%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES SLIM-TO-NONE OUTSIDE OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LOW TO VERY LOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TODAY, LEE TROUGHING FROM WESTERNMOST TX INTO THE
BIG BEND AND FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST NM INTO TX PANHANDLE AND
ELEVATED HEATING OF WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN RESULT IN A LOW (10% TO
30% CHANCE) OF ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CONSISTENT WITH HIGH-RES CAMS DEPICTING POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, HAIL, AND STRONG WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGHS RISE INTO THE 95F-100F, 100F-
105F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND ON THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AS WELL AS
PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND 105F-110F FOR THE BIG BEND. WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
HUMID, UPSLOPE WINDS MAINTAINING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S F, LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING, LOWS TONIGHT ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 70F-75F RANGE, 65F-70F HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND 75F-80F FOR
THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND. TOMORROW, SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND SYNOPTIC SETUP ARE EXPECTED, BUT AS THE CORE OF
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW DEVELOPS WEST AND THE SOUTHERN "RING OF
FIRE" MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCES PROVIDING LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHIFT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, VERY LOW (<10%)
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE EXPECTED. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT MAY BE A
TOUCH COOLER AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 50S F FARTHER
EAST OVER THE PERMIAN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU AND OVERNIGHT COOLING IS
NOT AS LIMITED. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MORE DETAILS IN THE DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THANKS TO THE
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO
FOUR CORNERS REGION. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
RIVER VALLEYS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 100S. DAILY LOW (10-20%)
CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE IN STORE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAR WEST TEXAS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE
GOING TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE 60S TO MID 70S REGIONWIDE EACH NIGHT.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL FOR THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS DECREASING TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING
BETWEEN 10-15KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 75 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 73 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 69 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 70 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 64 92 63 91 / 0 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 74 99 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...93
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