909
FXUS64 KMAF 161859
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1259 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- BREEZY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (15-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE BIG BEND, RIO GRANDE, AND PRESIDIO VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT NEAR
THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. BREEZY WINDS (15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH) BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GOING TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FILTERING COLDER AIR. MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. AREAS IN THE BIG BEND REGION AND ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S
AS THE COLDER AIR DOES NOT TRICKLE IN UNTIL AFTER PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WEST TEXAS LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPAN
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S REGIONWIDE. A COLD DAY IS IN STORE
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BREEZY EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS (15-20 MPH SUSTAINED) ARE ALSO FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. GUIDANCE HAS A 500 MB JET MAXIMA (70-80 KTS) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DISPLACED OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THESE BREEZY WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PROMPTS THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
AFTER A COLD SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NORMAL (UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REDEVELOPING. THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON
MONDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S, WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S ON MONDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE AND LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAVE LOW (10-20%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE BIG BEND
REGION, RIO GRANDE, AND PRESIDIO VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, LITTLE (< 0.05")
RAIN ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THAT, THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS HINTS AT SUBTLE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 20Z
OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 25 45 21 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 27 47 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 32 54 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 32 52 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 30 44 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 24 44 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 21 54 17 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 27 45 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 28 45 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 28 47 22 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21
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