739
FXUS64 KMAF 071645
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE BEING SEEN AGAIN THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COUNTER ANY
COOLING EFFECTS FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER SO HIGHS BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL BE UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY REACHING THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN BIG
BEND INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS BUT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING EVERYWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW OVER MEXICO MOVES EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THEN SPREAD EAST INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND ULTIMATELY LOWER TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGHOUT MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH TO ISOLATED ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH. ANYTHING HELPS BUT SUCH LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL PROVE LITTLE
BENEFIT.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LOW IS DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN
WESTERLIES SO THERE WILL BE NO COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ITS
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
70S THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL. ZONAL UPPER FLOW
WILL PREVENT MUCH COLD AIR FROM REACHING THIS FAR SOUTH AND TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET BACK DOWN TO AVERAGE. THE NBM IS PUTTING
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS FRONT THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT
IS WELL TO THE NORTH AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE THESE
RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEAR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
VEER TO WEST AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 76 49 75 47 / 0 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 71 47 72 44 / 0 10 0 10
DRYDEN 77 52 75 52 / 0 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 78 55 75 52 / 0 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 65 47 63 47 / 10 10 10 10
HOBBS 73 47 73 42 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA 72 42 67 40 / 0 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 51 75 48 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA 75 51 74 49 / 0 10 10 10
WINK 74 48 74 45 / 0 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...99
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