708
FXUS64 KMAF 021833
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
133 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- BEST STORM CHANCES CONTINUE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WEST OF THE
PECOS THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES WILL BE OPTIMAL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED ON THE WEST
COAST, FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA, KEEPING WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TO THE
EAST, AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY/WEST VIRGINIA.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE IS DEVELOPING WEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, RESULTING IN INCREASING THICKNESSES AND A
CONSEQUENT WARMING TREND. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY COOLER TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER, TODAY'S HIGHS ARE SET TO COME IN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY A
DEGREE OR TWO. DUE TO THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE EAST,
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE PECOS, AND LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
TONIGHT, CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY, DESPITE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A 35 KT LLJ. THIS LLJ WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL-MIXED, COMBINING W/PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUD IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS ~ 4-6 F ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM LOWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING WEST, ADDING 2-3 F TO
TODAY'S HIGHS AND FURTHER RESTRICTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE
MOUNTAINS. BY THIS TIME, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WANING, AND
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE TO OROGRAPHICS.
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS NOTED ABOVE, WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES WESTWARD OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHS
LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AND AT/JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES BOTH
DAYS. RAIN CHANCES FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS (10-20%). BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, WE END UP UNDER
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. THIS ALLOWS LOW (MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING) RAIN CHANCES
TO RETURN TO SOME ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THANKS TO DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT
(10-30%, HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS). HOWEVER, WHAT CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP WOULD TEND TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. HIGHS ALSO TICK DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY THANKS TO THE WESTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKNESSES
WILL INCREASE OVER OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES START TO
TREND UP AND RAIN CHANCES BECOME CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE
AGAIN.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT IN AREAS OF
CONVECTION. RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL, ELEVATED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO A 35 KT RECURRING LLJ. PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUD WILL BE PRESENT IN SW FLOW ALOFT, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOONS, W/BASES ~
4.5-7 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 70 97 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 75 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 94 73 97 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 66 89 68 91 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS 68 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 60 87 61 90 / 10 30 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 94 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 72 96 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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