550
FXUS64 KMAF 141109
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
DISCUSSION
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMAF THIS MORNING AND MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
KHOB, DROPPING TO MVFR. ALL OTHER TERMINALS, VFR. SOME STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
KCNM/KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE SE TODAY, BECOMING ELEVATED/GUSTY BY MID AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021/
DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNING'S CLOUDS THIN OUT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THU AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IN PROXIMITY TO THE MTNS. WITHIN MAF'S CWFA
STORMS WILL PROBABLY 1ST FORM INVOF DAVIS MTNS AND WITH A SW
STEERING WIND A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING SE NM, STRONG PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. BY SAT THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN MOVING TO NEAR THE TX/NM
LINE AND THE SB INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED AND
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE GREATER. HIGH TEMPS INVOF DRYLINE WILL
BE 85-90 AND SB CINH IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, THUS A FEW SEVERE
DRYLINE STORMS SEEM LIKELY. SOME INDICATIONS IN CAMS (TTU WRF) OF
PECOS/TERREL CO SUPERCELL. THE DRYLINE WILL SET UP A LITTLE
FARTHER E SUN, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF AN ISOLD DRYLINE
STORM ACROSS THE N CWFA LATE SUN PM. SUN IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE ONE
OF THE WARMER DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS IN
THE WRN PB. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON MON WRT BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCD BACKED OR VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER BY 12Z TUE THERE
IS GOOD INDICATIONS THAT A COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS PB/LOWER TRANS
PECOS WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE POSITION OF UPPER-
LEVEL JET. IF SO THIS WOULD TEND TO DIMINISH CONVECTIVE CONCERNS
TUE PM? IN WAKE OF LOW WED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS MINIMIZED AGAIN
POSSIBLY RETURNING THU WITH APPROACH OF A MINOR SHRTWV TROF. NBM
HIGH TEMP SPREADS ARE SUGGESTING A MIX OF BELOW TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS TUE ONWARD AND WE HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH THE COOLER
SIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 82 63 82 64 / 0 10 40 30
CARLSBAD 87 59 88 58 / 20 40 20 10
DRYDEN 84 66 87 66 / 10 20 50 30
FORT STOCKTON 86 63 87 64 / 20 20 50 20
GUADALUPE PASS 82 59 82 60 / 40 50 10 10
HOBBS 82 59 84 59 / 10 20 30 10
MARFA 82 51 85 52 / 40 40 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 63 84 63 / 0 10 40 30
ODESSA 83 63 84 63 / 10 10 40 30
WINK 88 62 90 62 / 20 20 40 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
88/49
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