372
FXUS64 KMAF 092236
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
COOLER CONDITIONS SET IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER WITHIN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR/ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS, WHERE HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO REACH JUST SHY OF 105 DEGREES
(UP TO 107 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND). TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FALL TO THE 70S. ALTHOUGH MOST STAY
DRY, BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING LOW (<20%) RAIN CHANCES TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON OF THE
PERIOD. THE BEST ODDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE
DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. SOME MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBILITY
FOR RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER AHEAD. MORE DETAILS
BELOW!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH WARM AND PREDOMINANTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEKEND GIVING WAY TO A MORE ACTIVE AND
COOLER PERIOD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ITS EFFECTS
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOIST, EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE DURING THIS TIME.
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS A RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY NEST WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. EXPECT A COOLING TREND STARTING SUNDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATING INTO THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN RETURN FLOW, ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LLJ. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE NIL, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CU FIELD EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
W/BASES ~ 7-9 KFT AGL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 102 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 72 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 98 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 70 94 69 91 / 0 10 0 0
HOBBS 70 99 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 62 94 62 94 / 10 20 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 73 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 72 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 100 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...99
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