744
FXUS64 KMAF 121143
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES (50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. THE MAIN THREATS FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND WELL OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THIS FEATURE IS SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST, THE AXIS OF
WHICH IS NOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST
TODAY.
AS SUCH, SURFACE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, HAVE VEERED BACK TO RETURN
FLOW, WHICH WILL ASSIST IN INCREASING THICKNESSES TODAY, RESULTING
IN A NICE THERMAL REBOUND AS HIGHS TOP OUT ~ 10-15 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
TONIGHT, A FETCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, AND A 20-25 KT LLJ WILL ADVECT 50+ F DEWPOINTS UP THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
THE NET EFFECT OF ALL THIS WILL BE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING,
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ~ 15-20 F ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE, W/THE LREF PUTTING IT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 00Z SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, A
WEAK PAC FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST, SHAVING 2-3 F OFF
AFTERNOON HIGHS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR
SOME DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WITH A WEAK CAP AND A
DRYLINE ATTEMPTING TO SHARPEN UP MID-CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL ONLY INCREASE W/INCREASED LIFT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. CAMS INCREASE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM OR
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS, SO A LITTLE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE'LL LEAVE MENTION OF
THIS OUT OF THE GRIDS FRIDAY, AS THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH WILL BE A POTENTIAL RECORD PWAT.
NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS INCREASE KMAF PWAT TO 1.23" BY 00Z SATURDAY,
WHEN CLIMATOLOGY PEGS THE 100TH PERCENTILE AT 0.86", AND THE DAILY
RECORD AT 0.94". SO WITH ANY LUCK, WE'LL GET MORE RAIN THAN HAIL
OUT OF THIS EVENT. STAY TUNED...
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO, TO THE TRANS PECOS, AND PERMIAN BASIN. MODELS INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS QUICKLY COALESCE INTO A LINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
ONE HALF OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-10 WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS MIXED IN. SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT SO WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. STORM TRAINING COULD ALSO CREATE A VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN BUT AS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THIS RISK IS MARGINAL.
RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY YIELDING
CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE RAINFALL.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TX PANHANDLE
BRINGING US WINDY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSES WINDS TO DROP OFF AND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
KEEPING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
BROAD RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE
70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO
PROVIDE US A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. IT COULD BRING US WINDY
CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD NOT BE UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 77 52 75 50 / 0 0 40 90
CARLSBAD 75 49 67 46 / 0 0 60 80
DRYDEN 78 54 78 55 / 0 0 10 60
FORT STOCKTON 79 55 77 52 / 0 0 20 80
GUADALUPE PASS 66 51 62 42 / 0 0 60 70
HOBBS 75 46 70 45 / 0 0 60 90
MARFA 73 44 71 39 / 0 0 30 70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 54 74 50 / 0 0 40 90
ODESSA 75 53 73 50 / 0 0 50 90
WINK 75 49 72 48 / 0 0 50 90
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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