040  
FXUS64 KMAF 220901  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
301 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S GUSTY WINDS HAS DEPARTED,  
LEAVING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. EVEN STILL, A TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT AND MODEST 700MB JET REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY,  
THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF  
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS MAY FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS BUT  
LOOK TO BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE.  
 
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SHUNTED THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE  
AWAY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-8 C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.  
THIS REASONING ALONE ARGUES FOR THE MID 70S ACROSS THE PERMIAN  
BASIN, WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. HAVE  
MAINTAINED BUMPING TEMPERATURES UP OVER NBM WHICH HAS BEEN  
UNDERDOING TEMPERATURES THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AN "ARCTIC" FRONT  
PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT, BRINGING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SOME  
COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.  
VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND NOT A DROP OF PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  
 
-MUNYAN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
THE COOLDOWN ON FRIDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN  
TRENDING UP IN RESPONSE TO LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION. THIS RIDGE TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY,  
THOUGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH SKIRTING  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. LOCALLY, THAT MEANS A  
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND GIVEN INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE PROGGED TO  
TOP OUT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, REACHING  
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE PECOS AND  
RIO GRANDE VALLEYS, WHERE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED. HEADING INTO  
SUNDAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION RESULTS IN  
A TRANSITION TO DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW, WITH  
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING YIELDING A QUICK RETURN TO THE 80S FOR MOST,  
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT, WITH DETERMINISTIC  
GUIDANCE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLUSTER ANALYSES  
INDICATING A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO  
A DEVELOPING TROUGH OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A  
BROADER SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY  
TUESDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS POINTING TOWARD AN EVENTUAL TREK  
OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD SPELL ANOTHER  
ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO  
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. OF NOTE, ON DAY 6 (TUESDAY), NBM PROBABILISTIC  
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY HITTING ON A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%)  
PROBABILITY OF WINDS GREATER THAN 50 MPH IN THE GUADALUPE  
MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS, WITH A LOW (10-30%)  
PROBABILITY OF THESE WINDS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW  
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, AS WELL AS SOUTH TO  
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTEN WILL BEAR  
WATCHING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN A VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE OF ANY  
RAINFALL BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. IN THIS REGIME, CONTINUED ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUED  
DRYING THAT COULD SPELL ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.  
 
JP  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST WED FEB 21 2024  
 
WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, SWITCHING FROM MORE  
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY  
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT MOST  
TERMINALS. VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY ON THE HEELS OF THE  
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S DRY, WINDY  
CONDITIONS. WHILE MOISTURE IS SLOWLY INCREASING, RHS THIS AFTERNOON  
ARE STILL PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10-20%. ELEVATED/NEAR  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,  
MAINLY ACROSS THE STOCKTON PLATEAU WHERE FORECAST ERCS ARE  
NEARING THE 75TH PERCENTILE, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS  
AND DOWN INTO THE BIG BEND WHERE LOWEST RHS CLOSER TO 10% ARE  
EXPECTED AND WHERE FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH WITH A MORE PROLONGED  
PERIOD OF 20FT WINDS NEARING 25 MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE GROWTH  
AND SPREAD REMAINS LOW, BUT AN UPTICK IN IA IS EXPECTED AS FUELS  
CONTINUE TO DRY. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE QUICK THIS EVENING AS WINDS  
BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE  
YIELDING GOOD NOCTURNAL RECOVERY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE  
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARM, WINDY, AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
JP  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 75 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 73 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0  
DRYDEN 82 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 75 44 71 46 / 0 0 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 64 42 61 43 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBBS 71 37 66 40 / 0 0 0 0  
MARFA 69 35 68 36 / 0 0 0 0  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 76 42 68 44 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 75 43 68 45 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 75 42 69 43 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...16  
LONG TERM....84  
AVIATION...88  
 
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