871
FXUS64 KMAF 311136
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE YET AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-
PECOS. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD OUR REGION
AT THE MOMENT. MEANWHILE, A LEE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DOWN TOWARD JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND, WITH A
DRYLINE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO ROUGHLY BISECT OUR CWA IN AN
EAST-WEST MANNER. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR LOW
(10-20%) CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. BEST
(~20%) ODDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. A STORM OR TWO MAY BE STRONG OVER THESE
AREAS, PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTING AND GUSTY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES
THEN DIMINISH AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO DROP INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITHIN THE
PANHANDLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BEING THE CASE,
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE 50S AND 60S,
WITH 60S BEING MORE PROMINENT.
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS, APPROACHING THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL AID IN PRODUCING BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO IMPACT THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS. AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
FURTHERMORE, A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN UP AGAIN WITHIN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PROMPTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM WIND AND FIRE HAZARDS, THOSE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE DRYLINE AGAIN
SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES
ARE FORECAST FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS, WITH BEST (20-30%) ODDS EXIST WITHIN THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS. MODELS SHOW STORM ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING
EAST OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING
INTO A LINE AS A PAC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. MORE DETAILS ON HOW THIS
EVOLVES IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDS AS ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARDS
THE EASTERN EDGE OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(40-70%) ARE RESERVED FOR THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
LOWER TRANS-PECOS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
THE PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES CONVECTION (AND THE ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT) EAST BEYOND OUR AREA, AND GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
THURSDAY LOOKS MUCH DRIER, AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE
REGION (MAINLY 80S AND LOW 90S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN). HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY MOISTURE FILTERS BACK INTO MAINLY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEHIND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS, PULSES
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE EAST OF
THE SHARPENING DRYLINE, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MUCH LIKE
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES (WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20-40%
RANGE) WOULD BE FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. MEDIUM-
TO-LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BOTH BE
ON THE RISE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. AS A RESULT, WE WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR BOTH OF
THESE DAYS. BY SATURDAY MORNING, A FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS PUSHES RAIN CHANCES FARTHER
SOUTH AND BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S LOOK TO BECOME COMMONPLACE BY
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
LLJ THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MIN RHS ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 15% TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS (SAVE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA).
NEVERTHELESS, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW YIELDS STRONGER WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS, AND IN/AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FUELS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT FOR FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY IS MIN RHS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS TO AROUND 15-20% ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (HIGHER
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS). THESE RHS ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE. THAT BEING
SAID, THE STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS, COUPLED WITH THE DRY FUELS,
LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LIGHTNING STARTS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE UPPER TRANS-
PECOS, GAINES COUNTY, AND THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS
(ALONG WITH SURROUNDING ZONES). ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
MAY STICK AROUND THURSDAY AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE
AREA FOLLOWING A FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THOUGH WINDS DECREASE
RELATIVE TO WEDNESDAY'S).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 92 62 90 56 / 10 10 20 50
CARLSBAD 91 60 85 54 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN 91 62 91 62 / 10 0 20 60
FORT STOCKTON 93 63 90 60 / 20 10 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS 80 58 75 52 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS 90 54 83 50 / 0 0 10 20
MARFA 85 50 81 46 / 10 0 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 92 62 88 57 / 10 10 20 30
ODESSA 92 62 88 57 / 10 10 10 30
WINK 92 59 88 54 / 0 0 10 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95
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