613
FXUS64 KMAF 091905
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
105 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT.
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-
PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHIELD OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER
OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS CLOUD
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT TODAY LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THANKS TO AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE GOING TO BE
COOLER THAN WHAT A LOT OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING DUE TO NOT
RESOLVING THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION
SUPPLYING MORE ASCENT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG THE PRESIDIO VALLEY EXTENDING TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND VAN
HORN CORRIDOR. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AS PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITS THE NORMAL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONLY DROP IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS MEDIUM (60-70%) CONFIDENCE IN LOWS
BREAKING THE "WARM" LOW RECORD AT MIDLAND INTL WHICH WAS SET BACK
IN 1976.
TUESDAY, RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES
CLOSER TO THE REGION COINCIDING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NORTH
OF THE REGION. HI-RES FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PWATS EXCEEDING THE
DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM. THIS TYPICALLY INDICATES A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT, HOWEVER, VERY LIMITED LIFT/ASCENT AND INSTABILITY
KEEPS THIS THREAT VERY LOW. THEREFORE, LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MANY LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A TRACE TO 0.1".
HIGHEST AMOUNTS REMAIN WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
MAY RECEIVE 0.2-0.5" THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO
HAS LOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHERE A COUPLE OF RUMBLES OF THUNDER
MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING BRIEF BREEZY WINDS AND COLDER
MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. RAINFALL COVERAGE
BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND CLOUD
COVER DECREASES. NEVERTHELESS, EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND TUESDAY
EVENING'S WEAK FRONT HELPS KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S (THIS IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, RETURN FLOW STARTS TO REDEVELOP, AND LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
TEMPERATURES SHOOT BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT AND
RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND PUSHES THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ENCOURAGE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
RAIN CHANCES ARE MAXIMIZED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ONCE AGAIN, THE BEST CHANCES
(40-70%) LOOK TO MAINLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IN THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS, WHERE RELATIVELY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. WHILE INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL TEMPER HIGHS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-
MID 70S WILL REMAIN COMMONPLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. -RA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
POSITIONING AND EXACT TIMING ON -RA AFFECTING TERMINALS, THUS,
THERE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 53 70 43 67 / 10 40 50 10
CARLSBAD 50 65 45 67 / 10 40 20 0
DRYDEN 57 71 51 74 / 10 40 30 0
FORT STOCKTON 58 72 48 70 / 10 50 40 0
GUADALUPE PASS 49 58 43 60 / 10 50 20 0
HOBBS 50 66 41 65 / 10 40 40 0
MARFA 46 64 38 67 / 20 60 30 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 55 70 44 68 / 10 40 50 10
ODESSA 55 69 44 67 / 10 40 50 10
WINK 52 66 44 66 / 10 40 50 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11
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