927
FXUS64 KMAF 012143
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT 12 HOURS INVOF THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE GUADALUPES THROUGH THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING IFR CIGS INTO TEXAS TERMINALS AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO A CU FIELD W/BASES 3-4.5 KFT AGL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG AND OVER
ROUGHLY INTERSTATE 20, WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
WHIRLS ADDING SOME ROTATION WITHIN THE LARGER FLOW. OVERNIGHT
ELEVATED ACTIVITY REMAINS ORIENTED WITHIN THE ZONE WHILE SURFACE-
BASED CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO ALONG AN
OUTFLOW-ENHANCED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. THE AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION IS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND IS VERY RICH IN
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 3-4 CM RANGE, AND
COUPLED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE AVAILABLE FORCING, MOISTURE, AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINERS. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE NOT
LEANING TOWARD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS 1) WE DON'T EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH IN TIME AND SPACE TO WARRANT
ISSUANCE AND 2) OUTSIDE OF URBAN RUNOFF AREAS, THE SOILS WILL TAKE A
COUPLE OF INCHES IN SIX HOURS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ONGOING TRENDS AND ADJUST SHOULD THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BECOME MORE
APPARENT. WIND SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A MULTICELLULAR MODE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SMALL LIKELIHOOD (ON THE ORDER OF
1:20) OF BECOMING SEVERE, WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
AND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY COLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
STORMS WITH THE BACKGROUND WINDS BEING NORTHEASTERLY. CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST MONDAY,
MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER THAN EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGHS
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE TO TONIGHT'S MINIMA WITH DECREASING POPS EXPECTED AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MEANDER
EASTWARD WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE
BUILDING, LEAVING US IN COOLER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS WEEK, MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
ON TUESDAY, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA,
GIVING US THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN DECENT AT A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH WITH
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM12 AND RAP13 SHOWING LONG AND SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FOR THE AREAS ALONG AND S OF
THE TRANS PECOS AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE NEW MEXICO, BUT
SOME STORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 90S. THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, A LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND HELP
BREAKDOWN OUR RIDGE BEFORE WE REACH THOSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
BECAUSE OF THIS, THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 90S.
RAIN CHANCES WON'T BE ZERO FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT SEEM TO BE
DIMINISHING FOR EVERY AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN CWA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 68 82 65 86 / 80 60 20 10
CARLSBAD 67 83 67 87 / 80 60 30 30
DRYDEN 73 88 72 90 / 50 60 50 40
FORT STOCKTON 68 82 67 86 / 70 70 50 30
GUADALUPE PASS 63 76 63 80 / 70 50 40 30
HOBBS 65 81 64 84 / 80 60 20 20
MARFA 62 78 60 80 / 70 70 50 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 68 82 66 85 / 80 60 20 20
ODESSA 68 82 67 85 / 80 60 30 20
WINK 69 84 68 90 / 80 60 30 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...44
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