516
FXUS64 KMAF 310702
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
DROPS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ON SATURDAY.
- A WARMING TREND RETURNS SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A RATHER MUNDANE FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 00Z KMAF RAOB CAME IN W/A PWAT OF JUST 0.36",
OR ABOUT THE 15TH PERCENTILE. W/THIS IN MIND, PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ELUSIVE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
TODAY, RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE EAST, WHEREAS WESTERLIES
WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCREASING THICKNESSES AND
ADDING A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO THE MIX. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S.
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS SET TO INTRUDE UPON THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
W/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS PEGGING FROPA AT KMAF AT AROUND 09Z
SATURDAY. THIS WONT ARRIVE IN TIME TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH
SHOULD AVERAGE ~ 2-4 F ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AND BRISK, WITH CAA TAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS
DOWN TO 2-4 F BELOW NORMAL, KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S AND
70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BETWEEN A
LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES TO OUR EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO OUR WEST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE SHIFT EASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OUR REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CHILLY
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY INCREASE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FEATURE
QUICKLY WEAKENS BY THURSDAY MORNING, SO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT/VARIABLE, W/A HIGH CLOUD OR TWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 43 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 81 47 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 76 49 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 81 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 72 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 75 42 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 77 43 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 46 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 73 46 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 76 45 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...44
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