632
FXUS64 KMAF 081109
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WEAK ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. VERY LITTLE IS REACHING THE GROUND AND NO APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF BUILDS BACK
INTO WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, NOT THAT IT MATTERS MUCH
GIVEN THE LOW QPF. HIGHS REMAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA OF
MEXICO EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO TEXAS. LIFT WILL BE BETTER SINCE THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA THUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER...EVEN IF ONLY MARGINALLY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
THOUGH ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
SINCE THE LOW MOVES OUT OF MEXICO, IT WILL NOT HAVE COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND TEMPERATURES DO NOT DECREASE AFTER ITS
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN RAINFALL AS A BROAD
RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE NBM HAS
INCREASED POPS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF RAIN
SHOWERS ACTUALLY DEVELOP SINCE THE TROUGH IS QUICK MOVING AND IN
ZONAL FLOW. TYPICALLY THIS RESULTS IN RAIN FORMING JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED EAST AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. WE MAY BE ABLE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SOME
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE FRONT ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT
COULD ADVECT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS UNCERTAINTY NEEDS TO BE
RESOLVED BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN OUR EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ALSO DEPEND ON FRONTAL PASSAGE (OBVIOUSLY) WITH 70S
REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEK AND A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND IF THE FRONT ARRIVES.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 78 46 77 54 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 73 43 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 79 52 79 57 / 10 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 76 51 77 57 / 0 0 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS 64 47 65 49 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 74 43 74 50 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 69 41 71 44 / 0 0 10 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 47 76 55 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA 76 48 75 55 / 0 0 0 20
WINK 76 44 74 52 / 0 0 0 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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