222
FXUS64 KMAF 182235
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
DISCUSSION
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN RETURN FLOW, W/A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 200 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR DEPICTS SHRTWV TROF S OF EL PASO CITY MOVING NE WITH MID
CLOUDS AND VERY WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS, NO
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRANS
PECOS. OTHERWISE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE PB AHEAD OF SAID
SHRTWV TROF, BUT CLEARING TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD SET UP A MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON TUE. NAM12 SOUNDING SHOWS WELL MIXED
LAYER BELOW 7H AND TEMPS IN THE M60S SHOULD BE PRETTY COMMON. MID-
LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS STILL PUSHING A
FRONT S AND WILL ARRIVE IN THE NRN PB A LITTLE BEFORE 12Z WED AND
NEAR I-20 BEFORE 15Z WED. PRECIP CHANCES ON WED CONTINUE TO
DWINDLE AND WE EXPECT MOST POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE STILL LIKELY WED, BUT THERE COULD SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE FAR N LATE PM. SE-S WINDS WILL SLOWLY/MODESTLY INCREASE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BY THUR PM. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE E THUR PM
AND A FEW SHRA ISOLD TSRA WILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR W AND SE
NM, BUT SB INSTABILITY IS NOT VERY GOOD ACROSS THE WRN AREAS. AN
INITIAL SHRTWV TROF MAY KICK OUT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF TSRA
ACROSS SE NM EARLY FRI AM? HIGH CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND INTO FRI PM
AS MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES THRU NM. GFS FOCUSES A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY JUST E OF THE MTNS DURING PEAK HEATING FRI AND POST
PONES MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AM. AS
SUCH THE ASSOCD PACIFIC FRONT DOESN'T PUSH E THRU THE PB UNTIL
18Z SAT, THIS IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE UPSHOT IS THE
BEST WINDOW FOR TSTMS WILL BE FRI PM ACROSS THE WRN AREAS AND THEN
EARLY SAT AM ACROSS THE ERN AREAS. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE ARE
STILL APPARENT, BUT IT DOES LOOK MOSTLY WARMER SAT-MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 39 66 41 58 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 37 67 40 57 / 0 0 0 20
DRYDEN 40 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 38 68 43 61 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 37 62 41 53 / 0 0 0 20
HOBBS 33 65 36 56 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 31 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 39 66 41 59 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 37 66 41 58 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 35 68 40 60 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
44/27/44
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