550  
FXUS64 KMAF 141109  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
609 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMAF THIS MORNING AND MAY ALSO MOVE INTO  
KHOB, DROPPING TO MVFR. ALL OTHER TERMINALS, VFR. SOME STORMS MAY  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY IMPACTING  
KCNM/KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE  
TAFS FOR NOW. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY  
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT  
OF THE SE TODAY, BECOMING ELEVATED/GUSTY BY MID AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AFTER THIS MORNING'S CLOUDS THIN OUT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES  
WARMER THAN THU AND THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL  
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IN PROXIMITY TO THE MTNS. WITHIN MAF'S CWFA  
STORMS WILL PROBABLY 1ST FORM INVOF DAVIS MTNS AND WITH A SW  
STEERING WIND A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT INTO THE  
NEARBY PLAINS INCLUDING SE NM, STRONG PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE. BY SAT THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN MOVING TO NEAR THE TX/NM  
LINE AND THE SB INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED AND  
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE GREATER. HIGH TEMPS INVOF DRYLINE WILL  
BE 85-90 AND SB CINH IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, THUS A FEW SEVERE  
DRYLINE STORMS SEEM LIKELY. SOME INDICATIONS IN CAMS (TTU WRF) OF  
PECOS/TERREL CO SUPERCELL. THE DRYLINE WILL SET UP A LITTLE  
FARTHER E SUN, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF AN ISOLD DRYLINE  
STORM ACROSS THE N CWFA LATE SUN PM. SUN IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE ONE  
OF THE WARMER DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS IN  
THE WRN PB. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON MON WRT BOUNDARY AND  
ASSOCD BACKED OR VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER BY 12Z TUE THERE  
IS GOOD INDICATIONS THAT A COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS PB/LOWER TRANS  
PECOS WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE POSITION OF UPPER-  
LEVEL JET. IF SO THIS WOULD TEND TO DIMINISH CONVECTIVE CONCERNS  
TUE PM? IN WAKE OF LOW WED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS MINIMIZED AGAIN  
POSSIBLY RETURNING THU WITH APPROACH OF A MINOR SHRTWV TROF. NBM  
HIGH TEMP SPREADS ARE SUGGESTING A MIX OF BELOW TO ABOVE NORMAL  
HIGH TEMPS TUE ONWARD AND WE HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH THE COOLER  
SIDE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 82 63 82 64 / 0 10 40 30  
CARLSBAD 87 59 88 58 / 20 40 20 10  
DRYDEN 84 66 87 66 / 10 20 50 30  
FORT STOCKTON 86 63 87 64 / 20 20 50 20  
GUADALUPE PASS 82 59 82 60 / 40 50 10 10  
HOBBS 82 59 84 59 / 10 20 30 10  
MARFA 82 51 85 52 / 40 40 10 10  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 63 84 63 / 0 10 40 30  
ODESSA 83 63 84 63 / 10 10 40 30  
WINK 88 62 90 62 / 20 20 40 10  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
88/49  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page