160
FXUS64 KMAF 140945
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN THE SHORT TERM, AS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO SIT UNDER A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON THE MEXICO COAST
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. AS A RESULT, KMAF SET A NEW RECORD HIGH
YESTERDAY, AND WILL POTENTIALLY EQUAL OR EXCEED RECORDS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INDEED, A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NOCAL IS FORECAST TO DIG
DOWN THE COAST, TO SOCAL BY SATURDAY EVENING, NUDGING THE RIDGE
EAST, BUT ALSO INCREASING THICKNESSES UNDER INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS/THICKNESS PLOTS SUGGEST SATURDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST, AS HIGHS TOP OUT SOME 20 F ABOVE NORMAL.
IT ALMOST GOES W/OUT SAYING THAT, IN THE SHORT TERM, GRIDS STAY
DRY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SUNDAY, THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BEGIN EJECTING NORTHEAST,
ARRIVING OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA/NORTHWEST UTAH BY AROUND 00Z MONDAY.
THICKNESSES BEGIN COMING DOWN AS A WEAK PAC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MONDAY, AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LEESIDE TROUGHING ON THE FRONT
RANGE COULD GIN UP LOW-ORDER HIGH WINDS IN THE GUADALUPES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, COMPLETE W/A LITTLE BLDU.
TUESDAY, A LARGER, SECONDARY TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL ON THE WEST
COAST, ONCE AGAIN PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, RETURN FLOW WILL BE DRAWING
GULF MOISTURE UP THE PECOS RIVER/RIO GRANDE VALLEYS, AND SHARPENING
UP A DRYLINE MID-CWA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. W/A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH,
ONE COULD EVEN SAY A TRIPLE POINT WILL DEVELOP INVOF KHOB. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WEST WEDNESDAY AND
PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ARRIVES THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT
A SCOURING WEST WIND THAT WILL SHUNT ALL MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES EAST
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH, A FEW HOURS
OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES THURSDAY EVENING.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE W/IN A DEGREE OR SO OF
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
WITH ALL THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE, AND A COUPLE OF WINDY EVENTS IN THE
MIX, ELEVATED FIRE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WIND EVENTS LATELY HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT, SO FIRE WX THREATS WILL BE EVALUATED DAILY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 88 57 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 86 49 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 85 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 89 56 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 78 55 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 85 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 83 46 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 56 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 86 56 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 86 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...29
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