434  
FXUS64 KMAF 181725  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS  
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND  
BREEZY, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PREVAILING AREAWIDE BY LATE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,  
ESPECIALLY AT MAF/INK/FST, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION  
PRECLUDES MENTION, THUS WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. BRIEF  
HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST COULD ACCOMPANY  
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR  
THE REGION. TODAY THIS RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX AND NM  
PRODUCING ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE WILL  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT  
WEST WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
FRIDAY.  
 
SATURDAY STARTED OFF AS A HOT MORNING AND CONTINUED ON TO BE A HOT  
DAY. ON SATURDAY MAF GENERATED A RECORD WARM LOW AT 81 DEGREES AS  
TEMPS WERE SLOW TO COOL. TATUM... SEAGRAVES... MIDLAND... CRANE...  
SNYDER... GAIL... COLORADO CITY... DRYDEN... CASTOLON... CARLSBAD...  
PECOS... COYANOSA AND PERSIMMON GAP ALL HIT OR EXCEEDED 105 DEGREES  
YESTERDAY. THE HOTTEST WAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT 113 DEGREES. AS OF  
08Z HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND STILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE  
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM START TO THE  
DAY. MAY SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT MAF TODAY AT 106 DEGREES.  
WENT AT OR OVER GUIDANCE YESTERDAY AND WAS STILL NOT ENOUGH IN  
SOME LOCATIONS SO WILL GO 1 TO 2 DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE TODAY. WILL  
ISSUE AN EXPANDED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE  
PERMIAN BASIN... NORTHERN LEA COUNTY... AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE  
IN THE BIG BEND.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THE BEGINNING OF  
DECREASING TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY... HOWEVER MODELS ALSO SEEM  
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WITH A 594-595  
HIGH SITTING RIGHT OVER THE CWA MONDAY WHICH SHOULD INDICATE  
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING 850MB TEMPS  
WITH THIS MONDAY BUT MODELS DEVELOP COOLER TEMPS. SO FOR NOW WILL GO  
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE MONDAY AND SEE IF GUIDANCE CATCHES  
UP WITH THE UPPER PATTERN. STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK SUB 100 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  
 
WITH ALL THIS HEAT AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN LOOK FOR THE  
RECENT PATTERN OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO  
CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS ACROSS LEA OR  
GAINES COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 105 75 102 76 / 0 10 0 0  
CARLSBAD 106 72 103 73 / 0 0 10 10  
DRYDEN 107 79 104 79 / 10 10 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 104 78 101 74 / 10 10 0 0  
GUADALUPE PASS 98 71 96 70 / 0 10 10 10  
HOBBS 103 72 100 71 / 10 10 10 10  
MARFA 95 65 94 62 / 20 20 20 10  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 106 79 102 76 / 0 10 0 0  
ODESSA 105 78 102 76 / 0 10 0 0  
WINK 107 78 105 75 / 0 10 0 10  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LEA  
COUNTY.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-  
CRANE-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOWER BREWSTER  
COUNTY-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.  
 

 
 

 
 
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