697
FXUS64 KMAF 011104
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
NIGHT FOG AND MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW
FREEZING FOG/MIST DEVELOPING SOUTH FROM CHAVES COUNTY INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDDY COUNTY, REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
MILE AT ARTESIA. THE FREEZING FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN DEVELOPS EAST, EXPANDING OVER THE
DESERT SW INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
OCCURS. NIGHT FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW STRATUS/FREEZING FOG OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN EDDY COUNTY, WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ELSEWHERE. FORECAST
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUD CEILINGS SHOW ANY MIST/FOG DISSIPATING BY MID-
MORNING. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AREAWIDE TODAY AS
LEE TROUGHING DELINEATED BY NORTHWEST WINDS SOUTHWEST OF PECOS RIVER
AND EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH AND EAST OF UPPER TRANS PECOS BEGINS
TO DISSIPATE. BY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH HIGHS IN
NBM AND ENSEMBLES RISING INTO THE 50S AND 60S F, AND COOLEST
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG PECOS RIVER INTO
TERRELL COUNTY. WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 30S F FROM 20S F SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS,
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT WILL
PREVENT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE
THAN A WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE NOT IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FOOTHILLS OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY, OR USUAL COOLER SPOTS OF LEA COUNTY AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN. NBM DEPICTS MOST REGIONS OUTSIDE OF THESE REGIONS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S F, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S F RIO GRANDE
BASIN AND LEE FOOTHILLS OF GUADALUPES INTO MARFA PLATEAU, WHILE SOME
ENSEMBLES SHOW EITHER WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S F AND ALMOST NO
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, OR WIDESPREAD 30S TO 40S F WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY SLIPPING BELOW FREEZING OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, PECOS RIVER
VALLEY REGION IN SE NM PLAINS, AND LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN
BASIN BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
WITH MID TO UPPER RIDGING AND ACCOMPANIED LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION
CONTINUING TO EXPAND INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE NORTHERN MX
PLATEAU, HIGHS FOR MONDAY IN THE NBM AND ENSEMBLES 5F TO 10F WARMER
THAN TODAY ARE IN STORE. THIS TRANSLATES TO 60S F, 50S F
GUADALUPES, AND UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S F UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO
STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. WITH EXPANDED
RIDGING, NORTHWEST WINDS VEER TO WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE MONDAY, WITH THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND RESULTING
ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL WARMING KEEPING LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S F RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A DISTURBANCE AT
THE CREST OF THE MID TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
PROPAGATES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE AGAIN BACK TO NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE, ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IS
THIS APPROACHING FRONT GOING TO BE ACCOMPANIED OR FOLLOWED BY
ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND HOW LONG IS THE
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT GOING TO LAST BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
TO ABOVE AVERAGE? MORE INFORMATION ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PRESIDIO VALLEY
RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWS LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SPAN IN THE UPPER 20S
AND UPPER 30S REGIONWIDE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THE TROUGH IS GOING TO PASS NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS WHERE THE
FAVORABLE ASCENT AND MOISTURE FOR RAIN STAYS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, HOLDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPPING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL PLACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS FROM BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD INTO
14Z-18Z IN PATCHY MIST/FOG, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN REDUCED
CIGS AND VIS FOR TERMINALS OVER EDDY COUNTY PLAINS WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OVER UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO
LEA COUNTY. VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER WITH WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHERLY FOR MOST TERMINALS 19Z- 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 60 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 58 33 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 60 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 61 38 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 54 39 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 32 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 62 30 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 60 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 59 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 58 31 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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