519
FXUS64 KMAF 021816
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
116 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-40%) RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE REGION LATER ON TODAY LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY.
THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S FOR MOST. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A RINSE AND REPEAT WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
STORE TOMORROW AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS SPAN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S REGIONWIDE
WITH THURSDAY BEING THE WARMER MORNING. THE DRY AND WARMING TREND
PERSISTS HEADING INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE
HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PARKING OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S FOR A LOT OF LOCATIONS. SOMETHING OF INTEREST TO NOTE IS
LOCATIONS ALONG THE PRESIDIO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN
AREAS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INFILTRATE AREAS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS,
THANKS TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM (BY THEN POST-TROPICAL) WILL SUPPLY LOW
(15-30%) RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER BY FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY FOR MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
ALSO HAS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVING NEAR THE HUDSON
BAY VICINITY WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT DOWN TO THE REGION.
THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE FRONT MAKES IT
TO THE REGION, THUS, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND ASCENT FROM BOTH THE FRONT AND POST TROPICAL SYSTEM ALLOWS
WIDESPREAD LOW (15-40%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS CONFIDENCE
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, DETAILS OF
HOW COOL THESE TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THE QUESTION. THE
UNCERTAINTY OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS SPLIT BETWEEN A
BOUNCE BACK OF SUMMER OR FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ENTERING THE
REGION. DETAILS WILL GET IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO TIME. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST BEFORE VEERING AROUND FROM A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 94 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 66 93 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 66 93 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 64 84 66 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 62 91 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 57 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 94 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 92 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 65 93 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10
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