878
FXUS64 KMAF 072258
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 456 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- INCREASING (30-80%) RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10 AND I-20
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. A STORM
OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD FRONTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
- TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TRANSLATE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AND LIFT AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 IN WEST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THESE TIME
FRAMES TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (50-80%) FOCUSED OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS, AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE VERY LIGHT, BUT A FEW SPOTS IN
THESE HIGHER POP AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO AT LEAST 0.1" TO 0.2" OF
RAIN WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
ALSO BRIEFLY MATERIALIZE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY BRIEFLY
RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS AS LIFT SPREADS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. A
STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN/NORTHEAST BASIN GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY, BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IN THESE AREAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
FRONT. A DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN WAVE OVER THE VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH WIND EVENT THERE FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 45-55 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. A TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENT
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT WINDS COULD REACH
INTO WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND DOWN
INTO CULBERSON COUNTY ON THURSDAY. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE
THESE ZONES IN WIND PRODUCTS. LATER SHIFTS WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE TYPICAL SPOTS WITH THE
INCREASED WINDS ON THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS COULD RETURN TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY TREND ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT DROP OFF INTO THE
30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
STRONG WINDS ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS, WITH WINDS ANTICIPATED TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY EVENING, DROPPING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S FOR MOST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
STEERS MORE COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY, YIELDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST. THIS COLD AIR ALONG WITH
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING DROPS LOW TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE (TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN).
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S FOR MOST. AT THE SAME TIME, A CUTOFF LOW BREAKS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW ALOFT AND MEANDERS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CUTOFF
LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS BRINGS A LOW (10-25%) CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS POSSIBILITY AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW,
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND THE EXACT VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. IN SHORT, CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
INEVITABLE IN THE COMING DAYS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SIGNALING
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. EXPECT WEST WINDS GUSTING UP
AROUND 30 KTS BEGINNING AROUND 08/06Z LASTING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. -RA IS POSSIBLE AT KCNM AND KHOB TONIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT
LEAD TO ANY RESTRICTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 52 69 41 61 / 40 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 47 62 39 56 / 80 0 0 0
DRYDEN 55 75 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 51 69 42 61 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 40 51 34 45 / 80 0 10 0
HOBBS 45 63 37 53 / 70 0 0 0
MARFA 37 59 29 53 / 40 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 51 67 41 58 / 30 0 0 0
ODESSA 51 66 41 58 / 30 0 0 0
WINK 47 65 38 58 / 50 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 9 PM
CST /8 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29
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