491
FXUS64 KMAF 231123
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER SE NM, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RIDGE CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS ALSO
EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE LONG TERM, PUSHING THE RIDGE FARTHER EAST.
AS THIS HAPPENS, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE (ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO) AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. FOR TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE BEST FORCING, AND THEREFORE THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES, REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR COVERAGE AREA. THAT BEING
SAID, THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS, GRADUALLY DECAYING AS THEY DO SO (20-40% CHANCES). BETTER
CHANCES (IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-60%, UP TO 70%) DEVELOP ACROSS
THESE SAME AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND RISK. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD
ALSO BE A CONCERN. MORE DETAILS ON OUR RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT ONWARD CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA (WHICH IS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). BY SATURDAY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING HEIGHTS
KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. CLOUD
COVER WILL GENERALLY KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S. WINDS BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY THANKS TO SURFACE
TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO, DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE YIELD
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE BEST CHANCES (50-80%) WILL BEGIN ACROSS
OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME (ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE).
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TROUGHING WEAKENS. SUBTLE RIDGING
RETURNS BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERTURES TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER, RIDGING MAY STAY WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW (10-20%) RAIN
CHANCES AROUND.
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL SITES, BUT MVFR TO IFR
CIGS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND IN THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS. GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF THE
EXTENT OF THESE LOW CIGS, BUT THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO
MAF AND INK SHORTLY (AND LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF OTHER SITES). VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL SITES BY 17Z. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS MORNING, AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS (OCCASIONALLY UP
TO 30 KTS) WILL BECOME COMMONPLACE AT MOST SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
(ALTHOUGH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT FST THROUGH THE
PERIOD).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 82 61 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 84 61 77 59 / 10 20 60 90
DRYDEN 81 62 77 63 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 84 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS 78 57 70 56 / 10 40 60 100
HOBBS 79 58 73 58 / 0 10 30 80
MARFA 77 55 75 55 / 0 10 20 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 80 61 76 63 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 80 62 76 63 / 0 0 0 20
WINK 83 62 78 62 / 0 0 10 60
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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