864
FXUS64 KMAF 160522
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE MAY REACH BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
AND POSSIBLY QUARTER SIZE HAIL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
- BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE (30-50 PERCENT CHANCE) BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
INTERACTED WITH THE AVAILABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S IN PLACE ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED EAST OF
THE PECOS RIVER. WE EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS. OTHER
VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED CELLS MAY EVEN DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO
THE TRANS PECOS REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.
WE WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER THESE
LOCATIONS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND 30 PERCENT FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CAMS HAVE
INDICATED A BETTER SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH CLOUD BASES EXTENDING QUITE HIGH
ABOVE 12000 FT AGL. THESE INVERTED-V PROFILES AND HIGH DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME MORE INTENSE OVER
THE EASTERN BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE BETTER
(SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S). SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT (2 OF
5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO ENCOMPASS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF A LAMESA-BIG SPRING/COAHOMA LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHILE A MARGINAL (1 OF 5)RISK EXTENDS
OVER THE REST OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. A MUCH DRIER
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON SATURDAY. A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT FOR NOW OVERALL STORM CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST (10% OR LESS). HEAT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON TOPPING OUT
IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MAY REACH IN THE 101-108
DEGREES RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.
HOT, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY, WITH THE BREEZIEST CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE
OF HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND TRANS PECOS POTENTIALLY HITTING 100 DEGREES. A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD REACH BETWEEN 101-109
DEGREES. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
AGAIN OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY, BUT STORM CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON
COPY OF SUNDAY, WITH HOT/DRY/VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND
102 DEGREES OVER MANY LOCATIONS (AND UP TO 103-109 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE). A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS BY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MAY
PUSH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND POTENTIALLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE STALLS THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
DRYLINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NBM GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY TAKE SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES WITH DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE
50S AND PERHAPS 60S FOR SOME BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN ORIENTED OVER OUR REGION. THESE
FEATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/ASCENT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST, SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND
BECOMING GUSTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 69 99 71 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 98 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 95 72 100 72 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 99 66 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 87 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 96 60 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 91 55 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 100 64 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55
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