664
FXUS64 KMAF 020809
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
309 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGHS REBOUND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A COOL START TO THE DAY WITH
LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF OUR REGION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE
DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. A FEW SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES TODAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER,
BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN TO RETURN TO MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER MOST LOCATIONS, WITH WARMER READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MUCH WARMER ON MONDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH READINGS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT 70S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. LOWS EACH MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT ANY MEANINGFUL CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
70S AND 80S WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EXTENSIVE BROKEN-
OVERCAST DECKS BETWEEN 4-7 KFT AGL OVER AREA TERMINALS AS OF
0530Z. VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY LOOK TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL DECKS HOLDING INTO SATURDAY MORNING/
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW GIVEN
THESE BROKEN DECKS BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF CLOUDS DO SCATTER
OUT OVERNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 72 50 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 67 47 77 55 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 53 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 50 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 48 70 57 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 68 46 75 53 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 65 41 75 48 / 10 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 70 52 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 69 51 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 69 50 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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