113
FXUS64 KMAF 122250
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW (20-40%) STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
TOMORROW FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. A STORM OR
TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THUNDERSTORMS STAY LARGELY CONFINED WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL COMBINE
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE (30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND REGION, AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS REGION. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LOWER OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE EVENING. WILL
GENERALLY MAINTAIN A LOWER (15-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EXPAND A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THIS
FEATURE, BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE VAN
HORN CORRIDOR, DAVIS MOUNTAINS/BIG BEND, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE
WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 90S OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR 80S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BETWEEN 101-106 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IN THE
LONG TERM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE TRANSLATING TO THE
EAST AND HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TO CLOSE OUT THIS WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE IN THAT POSITION, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. SE NM SOUTH ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND INTO BIG BEND WILL SEE LOW(10-30%) RAIN CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES STAY AROUND 10-
20% FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. HIGHS EACH
AFTERNOON STAY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100F. AS ALWAYS, BIG BEND WILL BE THE HOTTEST SPOT IN
THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 105-108F. BY LATE THIS COMING
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE RETURNS AND A
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN TAKES SHAPE. IF THIS HOLDS, IT WOULD BRING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. OVERALL, A
WARM, BUT MOSTLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VCTS CONTINUES AROUND KFST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 96 73 99 / 20 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 69 95 71 98 / 30 10 10 10
DRYDEN 73 99 74 100 / 20 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 71 97 73 98 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 67 88 69 89 / 30 20 10 20
HOBBS 67 93 70 97 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA 62 88 63 89 / 30 40 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 96 74 99 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA 71 95 74 97 / 20 10 10 10
WINK 71 97 72 99 / 30 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29
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