653
FXUS64 KMAF 161912
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS PERSISTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAINFALL.
- RAIN CHANCES EXPAND FARTHER WEST INTO WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN BY
EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN AS HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S F.
- TRIPLE DIGITS MAKE A REAPPEARANCE LATER NEXT WEEK AS RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER TO NEAR ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SCATTERED CLOUDS, CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING RISK,
AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BOOKEND THIS WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL TX BEGINS TO DEVELOP
WEST/NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO OCCUR THAN USUAL MID-WEEK, WITH MORE DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS HAS KEPT SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE BELOW PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, PWATS HAVE NOT
REACHED SIMILARLY HIGH VALUES AS ON MONDAY WHEN A RECORD 1.85"
WAS RECORDED ON THE MAF RADIOSONDE. WHILE PWATS MAY NOT AGAIN
REACH THIS LEVEL, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS DRY AIR COMPARED TO
MID-WEEK SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM FORMATION TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
THE MORE HUMID CORE OF THE LOW APPROACHES. ON RADAR IMAGERY LATE
THIS MORNING, MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO SE NM PLAINS AND
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, AS MORE
HUMID AIR ON THE FRINGES OF THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY
OVER THE AREA. REPORTS OF FLOODING WERE RECEIVED THIS MORNING FROM
SCURRY COUNTY, WHERE 1"/HR TO 1.25"/HR RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
WERE ESTIMATED FROM RADAR, EVEN THOUGH STORMS HAD ONLY MOVED OVER
THE AREA WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE EXISTING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND SE NM PLAINS, AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN OF SUDDEN PRECIPITATION BURSTS AND THREAT OF RAPID
RISES NEAR ANY BODIES OF WATER. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S
F, AND TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN LESS THAN 20F HIGHER, MAINLY IN
THE 70S AND 80S F. THIS WILL MINIMIZE EVAPORATION OF FALLING
PRECIPITATION AND KEEP AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH-RES CAMS SUGGEST MANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE QUICK TO FORM,
DISSIPATE, AND RE-FORM, SO EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, MEDIUM (45% TO 60%) 3HR POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1.25" TO 1.60" RANGE WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. ADDITIONALLY, NBM STILL
SHOWS FORECAST RAINFALL OF 0.50" TO 1.00" OVER TERRELL COUNTY, AND
UP TO 0.50" FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE MARFA PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE BASIN, WHILE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MEDIUM (30% TO 50%)
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL 0.50" TO 1" BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW AND
HIGHER PERCENTILE RAINFALL UP TO 1" TO 2" TODAY AND 1" TO 1.5"
TOMORROW FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOTORISTS AND HIKERS AND CAMPERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO AVOID LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ALERTS TURNED ON YOUR DEVICE THAT
RECEIVES WEATHER ALERTS AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE TO HIGHER
GROUND IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 70S AND 80S F EVEN DOWN TO THE RIO
GRANDE, AS CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING. DIURNAL
RANGE WILL ALSO BE LIMITED, WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S F AS CLOUDS AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
F LIMIT OVERNIGHT COOLING. THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD RISK
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND BUT SHIFT WEST. MORE ON THAT IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MID TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX SLOWLY DEVELOPS WEST INTO NORTHWEST
MX. AS A RESULT, DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER TIME.
HOWEVER, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, HIGH (50% TO 70%) RAIN
CHANCES WILL STILL BE FOUND DURING THE DAY FROM THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY INTO THE MARFA PLATEAU AND GUADALUPES, WITH MEDIUM (35% TO
50%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUING, AS WELL AS SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT WITHIN HUMID AIR ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER AIR LOW. A SIMILAR SITUATION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY, WITH THESE LINGERING MEDIUM TO
HIGH POPS, THERE IS A MEDIUM (35% TO 50%) CHANCE OF RAINFALL UP TO
0.50" TO 1.00", WITH HIGHEST END RAIN TOTALS STILL SHOWING 2" TO
3" OF RAINFALL. THEREFORE, WHILE NO FLASH FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. HIKER AND CAMPERS SHOULD
AVOID LOW LYING REGIONS SUCH AS CREEKS, STREAMS, AND ARROYOS AS
WELL AS STEEP SLOPES, ESPECIALLY NEAR DRAINAGE BASINS, AND BE
PREPARED TO EVACUATE CAMP SITES IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED. MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REMEMBER, FLOODED ROADWAYS CAN HAVE RUNNING
WATER THAT SEEMS DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS:
TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! CLOUD COVER DECREASES FROM EAST TO WEST AS
GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE WEST, ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S F RANGE, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AFTER
WE GET THROUGH THIS MORE HUMID AND RAINY STRETCH OF WEATHER. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MORE FAMILIAR DIURNAL CYCLE OF A 10% TO 40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERSISTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. THEREFORE, FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS
REOCCUR OVER SOILS SATURATED BY RAINS EARLIER THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
BEGIN A MORE PRONOUNCED UPWARD TREND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S F BY TUESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID TO UPPER RIDGE AND LARGE SCALE SINKING AND DRYING MOTION
DEVELOP SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES CLOSER TO NEAR ZERO. LATE NEXT WEEK, TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE, PECOS RIVER, AND PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL
ALSO MAKE A REAPPEARANCE, WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO THE MID 60S
F TO MID 70S F RANGE FOLLOWING THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S F SEEN
FOR MOST THIS WEEK. FORTUNATELY, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REMAIN AS HIGH AS THIS WEEK, BUT HOT AND DRY SUMMER
WEATHER WILL STILL INCREASE HEAT STRESS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ABOVE 3000 FT BY 18Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS WHERE -SHRA WAS IMPLEMENTED FOR MOST TERMINALS.
BRIEF MVFR VIS AND CIGS MAY OCCUR FOR ANY PASSING SHOWER AND
STORM. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TS AND -TSRA WILL BE ACROSS MAF, INK,
FST, AND PEQ MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 82 68 87 / 50 80 10 30
CARLSBAD 68 91 69 92 / 0 10 20 30
DRYDEN 69 88 70 90 / 40 50 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 67 87 68 89 / 10 50 20 50
GUADALUPE PASS 63 83 65 84 / 0 60 20 70
HOBBS 65 86 65 88 / 20 30 50 40
MARFA 57 82 58 82 / 10 50 50 80
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 67 82 68 86 / 50 50 10 30
ODESSA 67 83 68 87 / 40 40 20 30
WINK 67 88 68 90 / 10 30 30 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL
BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11
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