513
FXUS64 KMAF 220441
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
- HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK THANKS TO
MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE
TOMORROW LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING WARMER WEATHER AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CAMS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAINFALL THE AREA SEES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO PULL IN GULF MOISTURE, ALLOWING ANOTHER NIGHT
AND MORNING OF MIST AND PATCHY FOG. THE PATCHY FOG AND MIST WILL
HAVE LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS WHERE IT IS GOING
TO BE CONFINED IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST WHILE A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER STORM SYSTEM INTRODUCES A WARM, DRY, AND
WINDY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SUPPLYING STRONG TO
BREEZY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S REGIONWIDE. STRONG/BREEZY
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS EACH NIGHT REMAIN WARM RANGING FROM THE 50S TO MID
60S FOR MOST.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE DRY AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COINCIDING WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE STRONGER WINDS
AND MORE ENHANCED MIXING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, FURTHER
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SIMILAR
LOCATIONS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. WITH
THE ENHANCED MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. HIGH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE AT BOTH THE 500 AND 700MB LEVELS. AT
THIS MOMENT, GUIDANCE HAS WINDS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITERIA
LIKELY DUE TO THE JET MAXIMUM BEING NORTH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST DUE
TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. A SECONDARY
UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY, PROVIDING MORE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SIMILAR
AREAS AND POSSIBLY INDUCE MORE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE
EXTENT THAT IT DID LAST NIGHT. KMAF IS ALREADY REPORTING MVFR
CIGS, AND KHOB COULD SEE IFR BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. HOWEVER,
THIS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID-MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A MODEST CU
FIELD, W/BASES ~ 4.5 - 8 KFT AGL. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY, THEN BACK TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS IS DUE TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, CRITICAL MINRHS, STRONG 20 FT WINDS, AND WITH FUELS
CURING. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER MANY
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPOTS THAT WILL HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS WILL BE UNDER NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS DUE TO 20FT WINDS
MAINLY BEING NEAR AND UNDER 20 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. ERCS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE LITTLE RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED. MOST OF THESE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE ERCS IN THE 50-74TH
PERCENTILE, HOWEVER, AS WE PROGRESS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS, ERCS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE
CREATING MORE FAVORABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING MORE STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ENHANCING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FURTHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 60 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 87 54 92 59 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 79 61 89 64 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 84 58 93 61 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 75 57 81 57 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 81 54 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 80 48 84 49 / 20 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 79 60 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 79 60 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 83 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99
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