755
FXUS64 KMAF 111147
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, VAN HORN CORRIDOR, DELAWARE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, AND MARFA PLATEAU REGION.
- AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE (GENERALLY 50-90%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG AND ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE PECOS RIVER FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW TRAFFIC CAMERAS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN A FEW PLACES NEAR
THE I-10/I-20 SPLIT AND EARLIER AROUND FORT STOCKTON. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DELAWARE AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE MARFA PLATEAU AND
PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND THROUGH AROUND 10 AM CST BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE CLOSER TO HOME, WEAK RIDGING IS PRESENT
OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THE 00Z KMAF RAOB
CAME IN W/A PWATS OF 0.99", SMASHING THE OLD RECORD OF 0.86".
SHOWERS YESTERDAY RESULTED IN UP TO 1/2" OR MORE FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
WHICH IS NOT BAD FOR FEBRUARY. AREA RADARS SHOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK DRY.
THE NET EFFECT OF THE COLD FRONT, BESIDES AREAS OF FOG WEST OF THE
PECOS THIS MORNING, WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. IN FACT,
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS FORECAST, AS HIGHS COME IN
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, IF NOT A DEGREE ABOVE. THIS, DESPITE SURFACE
WINDS VEERING BACK TO RETURN FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, A LLJ ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP, AROUND 25 KTS OR BETTER, UNDER
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ~ 13-
15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS PUSHING
EAST, SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
JUMP IN THICKNESSES, AND CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT A PLEASANT ~ 12-14 F ABOVE NORMAL, MAKING IT FEEL MORE
LIKE EARLY APRIL THAN MID FEBRUARY. THIS MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY
THIS FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA REGION. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS ASCENT
ALSO ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE BY FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO OUR AREA. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (NOW UP TO 60-90%) WILL BE
FAVORED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE TRANS PECOS REGION, AND INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD
SUPPORT A LOW END RISK OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WITH A
FEW STORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK IS LOW/MARGINAL. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONSIDERING THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 1" PER SOME OF THE LATEST SOLUTIONS,
WHICH IS A VERY HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR MID-FEBRUARY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION BEHIND THE PASSING PACIFIC FRONT ON SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO NEAR IFR WILL PERSIST
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS REGION THIS
MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR KFST, KPEQ, AND KINK THROUGH 16-18Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT KMAF, KHOB, AND KCNM, AS LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED FROM THESE TERMINALS AS OF 12Z, BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
BECOMES PREVALENT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 46 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 62 44 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 70 52 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 65 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 45 67 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 62 43 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 66 39 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 48 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 63 48 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 64 45 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21/99
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page