209
FXUS64 KMAF 022316
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
516 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A RATHER PEDESTRIAN SHORT TERM FORECAST PERSISTS, AS ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THERE
AND HERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT
THESE LOOK TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THE
KMAF 12Z RAOB CAME IN WITH A PWAT OF 0.21", WHICH IS ONLY AROUND THE
15TH PERCENTILE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
FORECAST ANYTIME SOON. MEANWHILE, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL ON
TAP TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 F ABOVE WHERE THEY ENDED UP YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES, WITH BUFFER SOUNDINGS PUTTING
FROPA AT KMAF AT AROUND 08Z. FORTUNATELY, CAA DOESN'T LOOK TO
ARRIVE IN TIME TO MUCH AFFECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER TO KEEP
LOWS OVER 5 F WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, AS WELL AS OVER 5 F ABOVE
NORMAL.
TUESDAY, UNFORTUNATELY, THE POST-FRONTAL CAA AFFECTS WILL BE FELT,
AS HIGHS DROP TO AROUND NORMAL, WHICH WOULD BE THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY NIGHT, POST-FRONTAL LOWS WILL DROP, DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S, IF NOT A DEGREE OR
SO WARMER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
TOPPING OUT NEAR/A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S FOR MOST), WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY, YIELDING HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
(LOW 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, MID-TO-UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN). AROUND THE SAME TIME, AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND STRETCHES
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOW-TO-MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND (WITH 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SATURDAY). BY SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DAMPENS THE
RIDGE AND PUSHES IT FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS CAUSES HIGHS TO
DECREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY, THOUGH THEY REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES SNEAK BACK
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO LIFT FROM THE INCOMING
SYSTEM (THOUGH LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT REMAINS WITHIN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONCERNING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM). OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 06Z AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 37 62 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 38 60 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 40 69 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 41 62 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 39 53 34 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 34 60 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 33 61 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 38 62 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 38 61 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 36 62 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10
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