387
FXUS64 KMAF 251849
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING UP TO 110 DEGREES. BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS
AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES (10-30%) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, TRANS PECOS, AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT PERSISTS OVER LOWLAND REGIONS INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH LOW (10% TO 30%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, GREATEST OVER THE
MARFA PLATEAU AND UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO SE NM PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN. FOLLOWING MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THINS THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO RISE TO 100-
105F, 95F-100F HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND
105-110F ALONG THE PECOS RIVER INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AS WELL AS
PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. HOWEVER, APPARENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE, WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE BIG BEND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 110F-115F RANGE. THEREFORE, WHILE HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL RECOMMENDED, A HEAT ADVISORY IS ONLY IN EFFECT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO
THE BIG BEND, WHILE HAZARDOUS BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
PRESENT ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE SE NM PLAINS AND A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS PROVIDING NEAR SURFACE LIFT TO PIERCE OVERLYING
CAPPING AGAIN GENERATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS AS THESE
BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND PASSING MID
TO UPPER DISTURBANCES FOCUSING MOISTURE AND LIFT ALOFT. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG, AND LOW RH IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION INDICATE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND SPC HAS OUTLOOKED LEA
COUNTY INTO THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN IN A MRGL RISK. WITH PWATS
ABOVE 1.00" AND WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT, HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. DUE TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING ONCE MORE LATER TODAY,
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU BY EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE LLJ AND REMNANT HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM DIMINISHING STORMS
AFTER SUNSET KEEP LOWS AGAIN IN THE 70F-75F RANGE, APART FROM 65F-
70F FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS, AND 75F-80F
FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN PROVIDES A SIMILAR STORY TO CLOSE THE
WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LIKELY NECESSITATE HEAT
ADVISORIES EXTENDING TO LOWLANDS NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN,
SINCE HIGHS IN THE 105F-110F RANGE APPEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN IN ADDITION TO THE THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS ALONG THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS. ONCE MORE, HIGHS IN THE 110F-
115F RANGE FOR THE BIG BEND ARE EXPECTED. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS FOR MUCH THE SAME REGIONS OF THE MARFA PLATEAU INTO LEA
COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST, PWATS INCREASE,
INCREASED PWATS AND ADVECTION OF A MORE HUMID AIR MASS WESTWARD IN A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ TOMORROW NIGHT KEEP LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT. THE PATTERN ONLY UNDERGOES A SHIFT NEXT WEEK TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. MORE
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL BE
REPEATS OF TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S TO JUST ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW
(10-30%) AND BE CONFINED TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU.
BY MONDAY, RIDGING SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN US AND A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN US BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO THE UPPER LEVELS OVER OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (TO 40-60%)
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND COVERAGE INCREASES ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO 10-30%. TEMPERATURES END UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN TAKES HOLD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
VARY EACH DAY AS IT WILL DEPEND ON IF A PARTICULAR LOCATION SEES
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT DAY OR NOT. CONSISTENT RAIN EACH DAY ACROSS THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD TO A THREAT FOR FLOODING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW AND WILL BE CLARIFIED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, APART FROM MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS/STORMS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN LOW (10% TO 30%)
FOR TERMINALS ON SE NM PLAINS INTO UPPER TRANS PECOS AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM
22Z-01Z THIS EVENING. WINDS AT TERMINALS ON THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS
SHIFT TO WESTERLY 03Z-06Z, WHILE WINDS FOR TERMINALS TO THE EAST
REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TERMINALS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU AGAIN INCREASE TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 20Z-05Z, BEFORE DECREASING BACK INTO THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE AND BELOW INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 74 104 75 103 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 73 104 74 104 / 20 10 10 0
DRYDEN 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 74 105 74 102 / 10 20 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 72 95 71 94 / 20 10 10 0
HOBBS 70 102 71 102 / 20 10 20 0
MARFA 66 98 65 95 / 10 20 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 102 75 100 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 74 102 75 100 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 75 105 75 104 / 20 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BREWSTER
COUNTY-PRESIDIO VALLEY.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page