715
FXUS64 KMAF 160441
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO FOR THE FAR
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP, LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS,
AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE DRYLINE IS NEAR THE MIDLAND/ODESSA
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PUSH A BIT FURTHER EAST BEFORE
CONVECTION BEGINS ALONG IT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST AND DECAY AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DRY AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND
THE RETREATING DRYLINE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW AREAS WEST OF MIDLAND TO
COOL EFFICIENTLY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT TO TODAY, BUT WITH THE DRYLINE
MOVING EVEN FURTHER EAST, RAIN CHANCES TAKE A DROP DOWN EVEN FOR THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE AREA. HIGHS END UP ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FRIDAY ALSO SEES DRYLINE ACTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON/LATE EVENING, BUT LIKE THURSDAY, IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIMITED IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW ALSO APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY AND WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING THAT EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 60S AND
70S. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN BROAD, BUT LOW
(10-30%) RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON JUST HOW MUCH
RAIN AREAS WILL GET. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK TO
NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS. CRITICAL MINRHS (GENERALLY BELOW 10%) WILL COMBINE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS
STILL IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY OF WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WE ARE CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH IN
TURN KEEPS MINRHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, CONTINUED
DRYING FUELS COMBINE WITH RFTIS INTO THE 6-8 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CULBERSON COUNTY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOR THESE AREAS. SHOULD THIS FORECAST HOLD, A
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THICK CLOUD COVER
LOWERS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BREEZY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 57 90 65 91 / 0 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 48 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 66 88 66 93 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 57 90 63 93 / 10 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 52 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 48 86 56 87 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA 47 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 57 88 64 90 / 0 0 20 0
ODESSA 57 87 64 90 / 0 0 10 0
WINK 51 89 60 90 / 0 0 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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