167
FXUS64 KMAF 111919
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FLASH
FLOODING BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF ISOLATED STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US,
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRAWS PACIFIC MOISTURE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY, PROVIDING A SOURCE FOR ASCENT. AS IT
DOES SO, A LEE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN, MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES, INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A COUPLE OF
STORMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (UP TO QUARTER AND GOLF BALL SIZE) AND
DAMAGING WINDS (UP TO 70MPH). THROUGH THE EVENING, CAMS ARE
SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT IN STORM MODES BECOMING LINEAR, OR A MIX OF
LINEAR, WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD.
THIS WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS A PRIMARY THREAT OVER HAIL WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WOULD
ALSO BECOME A THREAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OVER THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND,
THOUGH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THE TIME. ASIDE FROM
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW ABOVE NORMAL PWATS RANGING FROM 1.10-1.35" ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, STORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LARGELY PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL MAINLY INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME
IN THE LOW 60S.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS OUR REGION. THE
DRYLINE SHARPENS UP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, SERVING AS AN
ADDITIONAL FORM OF ASCENT AND A FOCAL POINT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN FRINGES OF
OUR REGION. THEREFORE, LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST OVER
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING. A STORM OR TWO MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THESE AREAS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 80S, THEN FALL INTO THE 50S AND
60S SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WILL CREATE A ZONAL PATTERN
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PREVENT ANY AMPLIFICATION OF ANY UPPER
FEATURES. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FORTUNATELY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WHICH IS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE
NORMAL. AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE MAY DEVELOP SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITION AT MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. EXPECT ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS, AS WELL AS A POSSIBILITY
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT MANY SITES,
AND AMENDMENTS SHALL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 58 85 62 88 / 90 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 55 84 57 86 / 40 0 0 0
DRYDEN 61 87 64 87 / 80 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON 57 85 60 87 / 70 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 54 75 54 76 / 30 0 0 0
HOBBS 53 83 52 84 / 50 10 0 0
MARFA 45 78 46 81 / 60 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 58 85 62 87 / 80 10 0 0
ODESSA 58 84 62 86 / 80 10 0 0
WINK 56 85 56 86 / 50 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...95
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