654
FXUS64 KMAF 020845
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/
TODAY FOR THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
GUADALUPE PASS.
- A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TODAY, AND WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST DAY SINCE LAST MAY,
AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, HGIHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S OR LOWER MOST LOCATIONS.
RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MINIMAL, AND CONFINED
GENERALLY TO THE VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
FOR THOSE WHO PREFER COOLER, WETTER WEATHER, TODAY IS YOUR DAY. WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH DIRECTLY OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A PAC FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA YESTERDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL, BUT A COLD FRONT IS
ON ITS HEELS THIS MORNING, MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND VEERING
SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHEAST. A FEW HOURS OF HIGH GAP WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS, BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL
EVENT, AND NOT AS STRONG AS MODELS WERE PORTENDING A FEW DAYS AGO.
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SINCE
LATE MAY EARLIER THIS YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD COME IN ~ 8-10 F
BELOW NORMAL, MAKING TODAY THE COOLEST DAY THIS FORECAST. IF MOS IS
TO BE BELIEVED, EVEN THESE HIGHS MAY BE TOO HIGH. TO ASSIST IN
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPSLOPE FLOW, MAINTAINING A LOW
OVERCAST AND A CHANCE OF MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. UNFORTUNATELY, TODAY LOOKS
TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THIS FORECAST, SO AREAS THAT MISS OUT
TODAY WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY FOR THE NEXT 8-10 DAYS.
TONIGHT, CAA CONTINUES, AND DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER,
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL LIKEWISE BE THE COLDEST THIS FORECAST,
SETTLING INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...AROUND 2-4 F ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN IN THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHS MAY MODERATE A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER PERSISTENT OVERCAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THEY BEGIN VEERING TO EAST.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE INVOF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REAMINS RATHER PEDESTRIAN, AS MOST OF THE
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES ARE FRONTLOADED INTO THE SHORT TERM. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOCAL IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
EASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS, NUDGING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKNESSES/TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK OR SO, WHEN HIGHS TOP OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ~ 7-9
F ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THIS INCREASE, HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE
80S MOST LOCATIONS. ABSENT ANY TRIGGERS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, AS
WELL AS COLD FRONTS, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HARD TO COME BY, AND
RESTRICTED AWAY FROM THE RIDGE TO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTH. EVEN
SO, CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN BRISK N-NE FLOW, GUSTY AT
TIMES. NBM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST KHOB MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN A FEW -SHRA, AND WE'VE MADE A MENTION KFST/KCNM/KPEQ.
FREQUENT UPDATES LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 57 76 59 / 20 20 20 10
CARLSBAD 69 56 74 55 / 60 30 10 0
DRYDEN 83 61 75 62 / 10 50 50 40
FORT STOCKTON 76 56 73 57 / 40 50 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS 62 51 66 53 / 50 30 10 0
HOBBS 68 53 74 55 / 40 20 0 0
MARFA 71 51 70 52 / 30 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 75 58 76 60 / 20 20 10 10
ODESSA 74 58 76 61 / 30 10 10 10
WINK 75 57 76 59 / 40 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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