721
FXUS64 KMAF 102245
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TONIGHT.
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (GENERALLY
40-80%) RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR THIS MORNING DEPICTED LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE BIG BEND, UPPER TRANS
PECOS, STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND PERMIAN BASIN HOURS EARLIER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. INCREASINGLY, IT IS LOOKING LIKE TIMING OF
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL BE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS WELL, WITH MEDIUM
TO HIGH (45% TO 75%) RAIN PROBABILITIES FROM UPPER TRANS PECOS AND
STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO BIG BEND AND TERRELL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN BY THIS EVENING, WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRECIPITATION MOTION PERSISTING. ENSEMBLE
PWATS 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 0.70" TO
0.90" RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RISE INTO THE 1.00" TO 1.20" RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH OVERRUNNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FROM
THE NORTH PROVIDING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALOFT, A LOW AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MX
PLATEAU DEVELOPING EAST/NORTHEAST PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND SATURATION OF THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE - IN TURN
INCREASING INSTABILITY/CAPE ALOFT MORE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS
REACHING THE SURFACE BEFORE EVAPORATING (DESPITE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AT LEAST 10F TO 15F IN DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR).
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WHILE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S F EARLIER TODAY WILL
PREVENT LOW CLOUD CEILINGS INITIALLY. HOWEVER, MOISTENING OF THE AIR
COLUMN OVER TIME AND AT THE SURFACE (AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER
MOST OF THE REGIONS SEEING PRECIPITATION RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S F) ALLOW LOWER CLOUD CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. SPC ONLY HAS THE AREA OUTLINED IN A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM CATEGORY AS WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LIMIT BUOYANCY
DESPITE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WITH BROKEN MID TO LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY BIG BEND INTO PERMIAN
BASIN, ENSUING LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM
RISING ABOVE THE MID 70S F NORTH AND WEST OF THE BIG BEND INTO
TERRELL COUNTY, AND ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 60S F FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, INCLUDING THE MARFA PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET
REMAIN IN THE 50S F IN THE MORE HUMID AIR WHERE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED TODAY WHILE THEY FALL INTO THE 40S F BY EARLY MORNING OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES DECREASING AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THE 30S AND 40S F
EVENTUALLY LEADS TO TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE 40S F, 30S F
FOOTHILLS OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, DESPITE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING. NBM RAINFALL TOTALS 0.25" TO
0.50" FROM THE BIG BEND INTO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND MODERATE TO HIGH (45% TO 65%) PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH RAINFALL FROM BIG BEND INTO
THE PERMIAN BASIN SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LARGELY REMAIN LIGHT.
FLOODING WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE APART FROM POOR DRAINAGE SITES.
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN ENSEMBLES ARE CONSISTENTLY OVER
BIG BEND, MARFA PLATEAU, AND STOCKTON PLATEAU, CLOSER TO LIFT AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MX PLATEAU. MOST
RECENT RUNS OF NBM HAVE ALSO TRENDED TO SHOWING HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THIS GENERAL REGION.
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE, WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CLEARED THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S F BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MEAN CONTINUOUS LOW CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO BREAK BY
THEN. HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE DRYING
WILL OCCUR ALOFT, WHILE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MORE HUMID AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20F NORTHEAST OF THE MARFA PLATEAU,
KEEPING A MIX OF SUN AND MID TO LOW CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. NBM INDICATES MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ALONG THE PECOS
RIVER AND STOCKTON PLATEAU FROM MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME FORECAST CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BOTH IN
MODELS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE VALUES FAVORABLE TO
WIDESPREAD MIST/FOG FORMATION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. WITH
PERSISTENT MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS EVEN AS WINDS VEER BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
FOR MOST IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F, UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F
GUADALUPES AND DELAWARES INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND 70S F RIO GRANDE
BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY ARE FORECAST. LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
FURTHER INTO THE 40S F AREAWIDE ON HUMID SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP
LOWS IN THE 40S F, 50S F RIO GRANDE BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY AND
EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU/SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, APART FROM UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S F FOR FOOTHILLS OF THE MARFA PLATEAU. WHILE THE
WEATHER REMAINS DRY MID-WEEK AFTER TODAY'S RAIN SHOWERS, MODELS ARE
INCREASINGLY INDICATING ANOTHER RAIN EVENT IN STORE AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOOT BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THIS SHARP WARM-UP IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. BY
FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM STARTS MOVING INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA, PUSHING THE RIDGE FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST
TEXAS AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE AND ENCOURAGE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO MAXIMIZE FRIDAY EVENING AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THE
BEST CHANCES (GENERALLY IN THE 40-80% RANGE) WILL BE FOR THE PERMIAN
BASIN (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS) AND THE LOWER TRANS-
PECOS. ONE THING WORTH NOTING IS THAT AS MOISTURE HAS INCREASED,
CAPE HAS ALSO TENDED TO INCREASE, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS-PECOS. AS A RESULT, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG IN THESE AREAS.
NATURALLY, THIS IS ONE OF THE DETAILS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANGES IN
THE SYSTEM'S STRENGTH, TIMING, AND THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD, AND A PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS, IN ADDITION TO OUR PROXIMITY TO A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW, WILL YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING ONCE AGAIN
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SPRING-LIKE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED, THOUGH SATURDAY'S PACIFIC FRONT WILL YIELD
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL (ALBEIT STILL 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE) BOTH THEN
AND SUNDAY. FOR REFERENCE, SEASONABLE HIGHS AT MAF THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE ANYWHERE FROM 62-64 DEGREES.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
AREA RADARS SHOW A BATCH OF SHOWERS CLEARING THE TERMINALS AT 23Z,
AND CAMS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF IT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NBM SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF LIFR-MVFR CIGS AT KFST
OVERNIGHT, AND POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR TWO MVFR KPEQ, BUT OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO SE WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 43 65 46 79 / 20 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 45 62 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 51 72 53 80 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 48 67 51 79 / 20 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 43 59 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 41 64 44 74 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 38 66 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 45 65 48 78 / 20 0 0 0
ODESSA 45 64 48 77 / 20 0 0 0
WINK 43 64 45 77 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99
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