793
FXUS64 KMAF 100801
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MODEST.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES (40-80%) RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS-PECOS. NO FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MODEST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING WEAK ECHOES WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.
RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE BIG BEND
AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRODUCING THE
RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES
OUT OF MEXICO, THUS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SOUTH
OF I-20. THE RAIN ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TODAY
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES MAKE A SHARP REBOUND THURSDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGHS JUMP UP ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND APPROACHES NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS.
SEVERAL DAYS AGO, MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS TROUGH TO BE OPEN AND
POSITIVELY TILTED, PUSHING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AND
ALLOWING FOR ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SUCCESSIVE RUNS HOWEVER
KEEP DEEPENING THE TROUGH AND GIVING IT MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT
WHICH WOULD HOLD DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER WEST ALLOWING FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS. IN ADDITION, SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (PWATS) ARE VERY HIGH WHICH COULD ENABLE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS GOOD TO SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS EARLY IN
THE THIS NEW YEAR...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SO THERE IS NO THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
LIGHT, SOMETIMES VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
FROPA EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY SHIFTS WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY, BUT NOT INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 70 41 66 47 / 60 40 0 0
CARLSBAD 66 44 64 44 / 30 10 0 0
DRYDEN 72 50 72 53 / 60 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 72 47 69 51 / 50 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 43 60 47 / 40 10 0 0
HOBBS 67 40 64 44 / 30 20 0 0
MARFA 63 38 66 38 / 60 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 43 66 49 / 60 30 0 0
ODESSA 69 43 66 49 / 50 30 0 0
WINK 68 43 64 46 / 50 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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