885
FXUS64 KMAF 210448
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1148 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE A
WARMING/DRYING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
- HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS
FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE HAS PROVIDED A RAINY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DREARY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LOW CLOUDS
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE IN STORE MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 WHERE THERE IS NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVERAGE. STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL
LOOK TO BE PREVALENT FOR THE STRONGEST STORM. TONIGHT, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF RUMBLES
OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SUPPLIES MORE GULF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRANS PECOS, PERMIAN BASIN, AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT ON AND OFF SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY, SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES SHAPE BRINGING WARMER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S TO MID
80S FOR MOST. CAMS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAINFALL THE AREA SEES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DELIVER GUSTY/BREEZY
WINDS ALONG WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEE THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
A DRY AND WINDY PATTERN BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUPPLYING STRONG TO BREEZY
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ALLOWS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY, A PACIFIC FRONT BRINGS STRONGER WESTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE ACROSS
THE GUADALUPE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK
TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST DUE TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. GUIDANCE HAS A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY, PROVIDING
MORE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SIMILAR AREAS AND POSSIBLY
MORE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED!
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
IFR STRATUS AND EVEN A LITTLE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO A SPARS CU FIELD, W/BASES ~
4.5-7 KFT AGL. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO
SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 56 53 77 59 / 50 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 75 52 87 54 / 10 10 10 0
DRYDEN 58 55 79 61 / 20 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 71 53 85 59 / 30 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 66 50 79 57 / 20 10 10 0
HOBBS 65 51 84 54 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 70 43 80 47 / 30 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 58 55 79 60 / 30 10 0 0
ODESSA 61 55 80 60 / 10 10 0 0
WINK 71 54 84 58 / 10 10 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...99
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