633
FXUS64 KMAF 070449
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1048 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
WARM CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS OVER
OUR REGION, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING,
THEN DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SETTLE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. SATURDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES ALOFT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR
THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND STEERS WINDS BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 70S, WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 40S, WITH LOW 50S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BIG BEND AND THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. THESE COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO
APPROACH OUT OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW
(10-20%) AND RAINFALL TOTALS, IF ANY, LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FEATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A FEW CHANCES AT SOME RAINFALL. ENSEMBLES DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, THE LOW OPENS UP AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO OUR REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY MAINLY LIE
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING LOW MONDAY,
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO SPAN AREAWIDE. MONDAY EVENING, RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM 10-50%, WITH BEST (40-50%)
ODDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HEADING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, AND UP TO ROUGHLY A
QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE DAVIS' AND THE BIG BEND. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WARM INTO THE
70S FOR MOST, WITH 80S CREEPING INTO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
UNDER 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 39 76 49 75 / 0 0 10 0
CARLSBAD 41 70 46 71 / 0 10 10 10
DRYDEN 45 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 45 78 53 74 / 0 0 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 46 63 46 63 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS 40 72 46 72 / 0 0 20 0
MARFA 37 71 41 68 / 0 0 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 41 75 50 74 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA 42 74 50 74 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 39 73 47 74 / 0 0 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...55
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