901
FXUS64 KMAF 121058
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 557 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- A HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY, LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND ARE FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE ALREADY SOUTHERLY AT MOST
LOCATIONS AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS SPELLS FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY FOR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOW 100S ACROSS
THE LOW DESERT OF BIG BEND. WHILE THIS IS QUITE ABOVE NORMAL, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF ANY RECORDS. DESPITE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE IN THE
60S FOR MOST. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RESPOND BY BEING
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH MANY SPOTS IN THE UPPER 90S. SEVERAL
AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST 100F DAY OF THE YEAR, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR MOST DESPITE LOWER
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. SOME SPOTS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS (105 F OR
GREATER IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND). MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND EXTENDS INTO THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS YIELDS BREEZY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
FARTHER EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY'S AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS EXPAND FARTHER EAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING OUR
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A DRYLINE MAY
RETREAT TO THE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED MOISTURE, LIFT,
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW, THERE IS A
LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE QUALITY AND POSITIONING OF THE
DRYLINE. UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S BEING
MAINTAINED. SOME LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE (105 F OR
GREATER IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND). LOWS EACH NIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST EACH NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 93 63 96 66 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 98 63 99 65 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 92 64 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 96 64 98 66 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 87 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 95 60 97 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 90 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 93 64 96 66 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 93 64 96 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 95 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93
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