463
FXUS64 KMAF 181209
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND AND
PRESIDIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S TODAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, YIELDING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY,
SHAVING 5-15 DEGREES OFF SUNDAY'S HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS (15-20 MPH SUSTAINED) TO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY AND WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY. NEVERTHELESS, THE
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW-TO-MID 50S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CLIP SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH CONSISTENT WITH WHAT
MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. AS A RESULT, A LOW (10-
20%) CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS MAINTAINED FOR ONLY THE FAR SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER
TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY WEAKER FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING, DROPPING THURSDAY'S HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM WEDNESDAY'S (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION).
TEMPERATURES SHOOT BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FRIDAY
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. YET ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH JUST HOW COOL
TEMPERATURES GET REMAINS QUESTIONABLE (THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD WITHIN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS FAR OUT). OUTSIDE OF THE VERY
LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THIS WEEK.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 61 27 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 61 29 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 63 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 34 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 51 34 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 60 26 49 19 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 59 26 64 22 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 59 29 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 58 29 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 61 27 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page