944
FXUS64 KMAF 270442
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1042 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
DISCUSSION
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS ARE PICKING ON A POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS DECK FORMING OVER
KMAF TOMORROW MORNING (13Z-16Z), BUT THERE IS TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE S TO
SW TONIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WINDS COULD TEMPORARILY BE GUSTY
OUT OF THE SW TO W FOR THE WESTERN SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/
DISCUSSION...
INCREASING SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS E NM/W TX PLAINS SAT AND DEEP MIXING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A SUSTAINED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. AS SUCH A SHARP WARM-
UP IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE BREEZY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL FLIRT WITH HIGH
WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF THE GDP MTNS. MEANWHILE A WELL DEFINED
COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING IN THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE SAT EVENING THEN
ARRIVING NEAR I-20 BY 15Z SUN. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE W LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AM AND AS IT DOES THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE E ADVECTING MSTR WWD IN 85H-7H
LAYER. NAM12 HAS MODEST POPS, LOW-LEVEL LIFT IN THE MST LAYER DOES
SEEM TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE POPS, BUT LOW QPF, DECREASING QUICKLY
INTO MON AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP THE LOW TEMPS TOO, AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY. WARMER TUE AND MORESO WED. TIMING/DEPTH DIFFERENCES
ON THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF THUR WITH GFS SUGGESTING DRY WINDY
CONDITIONS THUR PM FOLLOWED BY DRY COLD FRONT FRI.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT BEGAN TODAY WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
CONCURRENTLY, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL YIELD INCREASING
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS.
HOWEVER, A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS EXPECTED, THUS THE WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY CARRY ACROSS THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PLAINS EAST OF
THE SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
BECOME GIVEN AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS DECK PROGGED TO SET UP RESIDENCE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST 20FT
WINDS WILL BE 30-35MPH ACROSS THE RIDGETOPS AND 20-25MPH AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WINDS WILL BE MORE BORDERLINE, IN THE 15-20MPH RANGE. GIVEN
THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS, RHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLUMMET,
WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT RHS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE FOR
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU.
WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY BE
FULFILLED WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGER, THE LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS THE
STATE OF FUELS, WITH ERCS HOVERING NEAR OR BELOW THE 70TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THUS, EXPECT SOME IA
CONCERN, THOUGH OVERALL, ONLY ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, AND PERHAPS
THE ADJACENT PLAINS, SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. THEREAFTER, A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND MUCH COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEYOND
SATURDAY WILL BE LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 42 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 69 34 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 71 52 82 57 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 70 47 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 63 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 65 34 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 73 37 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 65 43 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 69 37 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
89/10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page