680
FXUS64 KMAF 142332
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 105 AND
110 DEGREES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- LOW (20% TO 30%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, ADJACENT
AREAS IN THE TRANS PECOS, AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. A COUPLE OF
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
- MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (30% TO 50%) ARE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITHIN
THE RIDGE AND COULD CAUSE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUING
UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CLOUD BASES WILL BE
QUITE HIGH MEANING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTION. EVEN SHOWERS THAT DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR COULD PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING BENEATH THE CLOUD BASE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS, SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST TOMORROW, THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE FARTHER EAT, SO THE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD BE IN THE
FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. HIGHS WILL INCH
UP SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AND MANY AREAS IN THE BASIN WILL APPROACH OR
BARELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND A FEW 100S IN THE PECOS RIVER AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
ZONAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST AND THUS NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CAUSING UPPER FLOW OVER
THE CWA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND UNSTABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASES AT THE SURFACE AND A COLD FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY SERVING AS A LOW LEVEL FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NBM INCREASES POPS AT THAT TIME,
PERHAPS TOO MUCH SO, WITH RAIN CHANCES REACHING 30-50%. WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN
CHANCES SEEM A BIT HIGH FOR A DAY SEVEN FORECAST. THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WOULD BE THE AREAS MOST LIKELY
TO SEE RAINFALL IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO OCCUR. HIGHS DIMINISH
NEXT WEEK WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, AND WOULD
REALLY TAKE A HIT IF THE COLD FRONT WERE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE
AREA.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED AT MOST SITES THIS
EVENING AS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS SPORADIC. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST NEAR 40KTS IN THE VICINITY OF OF SHOWERS/STORMS, ACCOMPANIED
BY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
QUIET DOWN HEADING THROUGH THE EVENING, GENERALLY ENDING AFTER 03Z.
TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 100 68 100 / 20 20 10 0
CARLSBAD 69 95 63 98 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN 71 93 69 94 / 30 10 20 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 98 67 100 / 30 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 67 82 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 64 95 61 98 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 59 88 55 92 / 30 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 70 99 68 98 / 20 10 10 0
ODESSA 70 98 68 98 / 20 10 10 0
WINK 68 98 65 99 / 20 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...95
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