130
FXUS64 KMAF 211124
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
524 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
- DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND, PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
- CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG IN MORNING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PERMIAN BASIN
- COLD FRONTS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THURSDAY'S FRONT
BEING STRONGER AND GENERATING 20% POPS OVER NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN
- DRY AND WARM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS CAUGHT IN A LULL PERIOD. SURFACE
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMING ZONAL KEEPING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WELL TO THE
EAST AND PREVENTING COLD AIR FROM MAKING IT INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. MOST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO MAKING INTO WEST TEXAS CAUSING PATCHY FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 3 TO 5 MILES. BE ALERT FOR THIS HAZARD IF
DRIVING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TREND OF LOWS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, RANGING FROM MID 30S TO MID 40S. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW RIDGING FROM THIS WEEKEND FLATTENING OUT AND
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS COLD FRONTS TO
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK. BEFORE THEN, HIGHS MONDAY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH EXPECTED INCREASED
CIRRUS FROM THE NORTH AND EAST EXTENDING OVER NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN, SUPPRESSED MIXING HEIGHTS FROM BELT OF 700 MB WESTERLIES,
AND POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS OVER WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS,
HIGHS BELOW NBM ARE ANTICIPATED. WENT WITH 1:1 BLEND OF NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE AND NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS. HIGHS IN MID 60S
OVER SE NM PLAINS INTO CULBERSON AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTY, AS WELL AS
MOST OF PERMIAN BASIN ARE FORECAST, WITH 70S ELSEWHERE ASIDE FROM
LOWER 80S IN THE BIG BEND. IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST, THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG EXTENDING
FROM EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN IN THE
MORNING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SIMILAR BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. TUESDAY, CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT KEEPS HIGHS ONLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, MID TO UPPER
50S NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND PEAKS OF GUADALUPES AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS LOWER TRANS PECOS, LOWER TO MID 60S REST OF
SE NM PLAINS INTO PERMIAN BASIN, MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST OF
PECOS RIVER AND NORTH OF TERRELL COUNTY AND RIO GRANDE BASINS, AND
70S AND ABOVE ELSEWHERE, LOWER 80S AGAIN BEING INDICATED IN THE
BIG BEND. AS ON MONDAY MORNING, TUESDAY MORNING THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR EASTERN REGIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWS ONLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE RATHER THAN 10 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AS IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS YIELD WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER
30S, ASIDE FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EDDY COUNTY, HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CULBERSON COUNTY, AND MOST OF THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN,
WHERE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST. HIGHS REBOUND CLOSER TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE CHRISTMAS DAY, 60S ASIDE FROM 70S IN BASINS
OF CULBERSON COUNTY, UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND
RIO GRANDE BASINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY, WHERE HIGHS IN 70S ARE
INDICATED, LOWER 80S AGAIN IN THE BIG BEND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WARMER LOWS THAN TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED AS WAA IN SOUTHEAST WINDS
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY, THIS COLD FRONT AGAIN DROPS HIGHS, BUT THIS TIME TO 4
TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MOST REGIONS ASIDE FROM 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF CWA. THIS COLD FRONT,
WHICH HAS TRENDED STRONGER IN RECENT RUNS AND EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER THAN TUESDAY'S, WILL HAVE MORE ASSOCIATED LIFT. POP
CHANCES NEAR 20% ARE INDICATED FOR NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN
THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE. WE
ARE EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN THESE LOW POPS.
HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 50S IN USUAL COOLER SPOTS, LOWER TO MID 60S
NORTH OF RIO GRANDE BASINS AND TERRELL COUNTY, AND 70S IN LATTER
ARE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
NIGHT IN TERMS OF LOWS, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAINTAINING CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEP HIGHS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS YIELDS MID TO UPPER 50S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS, 60S ALL OTHER REGIONS APART FROM 70S STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO
TERRELL COUNTY AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, RANGING FROM MID 30S
TO MID 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z IN THE PERMIAN BASIN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
HENNIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 40 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 64 34 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 67 42 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 71 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 60 40 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 65 34 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 69 36 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 67 40 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 66 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 67 35 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...10
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