244
FXUS64 KMAF 211030
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
DISCUSSION
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, W/PLENTY OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS, BUT GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL
BE SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO SE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018/
DISCUSSION...
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY,
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
60S FOR MOST, WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES,
AND GIVEN CONTINUED EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. BY THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE 40S FOR MOST, AND 50S
THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE AND LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEYS. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND BIG BEND AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DAY FOR MOST, WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONFINED ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA AND LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND
CONTINUED TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A BIG CHANGE IS
ON THE WAY TUESDAY, AS THE PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS FINALLY BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD, ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IN TRANSITIONING SOUTHWESTERLY TO
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP AREAWIDE
TUESDAY,BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
AS THE REMNANTS OF WILLA (CURRENTLY A TROPICAL STORM, BUT PROGGED
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER WESTERN
MEXICO) BECOME ENTRAINED AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK TO BE
LIMITED, THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
OCCURS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO FOR MIDWEEK, AND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE, GIVEN
ANTICIPATED EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUDCOVER AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
FOR MOST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, YIELDING A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THURSDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SLOWLY MODERATE, THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLE
NEXT SATURDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THOUGH LOCAL
IMPACTS DUE TO THE FRONT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 67 48 68 50 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD 65 47 71 52 / 20 10 10 10
DRYDEN 67 53 64 54 / 20 20 30 20
FORT STOCKTON 66 49 68 51 / 20 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 57 47 65 48 / 20 10 10 20
HOBBS 63 46 68 48 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 61 45 66 49 / 20 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 66 48 69 50 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA 66 49 68 50 / 10 10 10 10
WINK 66 49 69 53 / 10 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
44/84/44
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