003
FXUS64 KMAF 062253
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DAVIS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION
ARE ALREADY BEING SEEN IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THAT WILL SEND A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS ACROSS EL PASO AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR THE STORMS TO BE
SEVERE BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE LOW GIVEN THE SPARSE
POPULATION AND INCREASING STABILITY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TOWARD EARLY MORNING BEFORE A SECOND ROUND
DEVELOPS AGAIN WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL AGAIN INITIATE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER, BUT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING THE STORMS TO
PROPAGATE FURTHER EAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION TO
A BROADER STORM THREAT TOMORROW, WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
HENNIG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS, APPROPRIATELY, JEJUNE AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THURSDAY INTO THE EXTENDED. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS TO BE THE INDUSTRIALIZED SUMMERTIME RIDGE THAT SHOULD
BE MATERIALIZING ANY WEEK NOW IN THE LONG-RANGE MODELS, IT DOES
SIGNIFY A DRIER, WARMER SPELL FOR THE AREA. UPPER TROUGHS ARE STILL
SET TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE SOCAL/BAJA REGION, SUGGESTING
ONE OR MAYBE TWO MORE CONVECTIVE EVENTS, THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM
LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY. THE ONLY CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY EVENING,
WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY KICK OFF CONVECTION
JUST EAST OF THE CWA, AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE, GRIDS STAY DRY.
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SOILS DRY
OUT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL, INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TO WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MATERIALIZE, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEED FOR THE
DAVIS/CHINATI MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS. FORTUNATELY, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN ACTUAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHICH SHOULDN'T
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES. STORMS MAY APPROACH CNM NEAR 06Z
BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT IN THE TAF RIGHT NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 63 87 62 92 / 0 10 30 0
CARLSBAD 64 91 58 94 / 30 40 30 0
DRYDEN 68 92 66 94 / 10 30 30 0
FORT STOCKTON 66 91 61 94 / 10 30 40 0
GUADALUPE PASS 60 84 59 87 / 50 40 20 0
HOBBS 61 88 57 91 / 20 30 40 0
MARFA 55 86 52 89 / 60 50 40 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 63 89 61 93 / 0 20 40 0
ODESSA 65 90 62 93 / 0 20 40 0
WINK 66 93 61 97 / 10 20 40 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...10
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