487
FXUS64 KMAF 150652
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
152 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- VERY LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE FAR EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS,
AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE REGION
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST, SO
DOES THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL KEEP MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW (10-15%) STORM CHANCES STILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. MODEST LAPSE RATES, DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG
STORM, SHOULD ONE DEVELOP. IF ONE DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. BREEZY WINDS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS PROMPT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY PLAINS,
AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
CREATING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS GOING TO SUPPLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST. SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS AGAIN PROVIDES ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SIMILAR LOCATIONS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
REGION BY FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEE THE LONG-TERM
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE DRYLINE MOVES BACK WEST NEAR
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND EXTENDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND.
IN ADDITION TO THESE FEATURES SURFACE TROUGHING BRINGS BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHER WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE MID-LEVEL JET). STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPS FILTER IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
DRYLINE, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS). FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN LOW (10-30%) CHANCES
OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW, SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES (10-40%) OF RAIN FOR
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE RETURN
OF WEAK RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SIGNALING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AFTER THIS WEEKEND.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
TS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND WILL NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KTS WHILE
VEERING FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z.
HENNIG
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS. CRITICAL MINRHS (GENERALLY BELOW 10%) WILL COMBINE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS. AS SUCH, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY OF WEST
TEXAS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WE ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH IN TURN KEEPS MINRHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ADDITIONALLY, CONTINUED DRYING FUELS RAISE RFTIS INTO THE 6-8 RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CULBERSON COUNTY. THIS MAY RESULT IN CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOR THESE AREAS. SHOULD THIS
FORECAST HOLD, A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND THICK CLOUD COVER LOWERS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 87 56 89 64 / 0 0 10 20
CARLSBAD 82 48 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 89 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 57 90 63 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 72 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 81 47 86 55 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 77 46 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 85 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA 84 56 87 64 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 84 50 89 60 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...10
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