731
FXUS64 KMAF 161128
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- HAZARDOUS WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
- STRONG WINDS AND DRY WEATHER SET UP NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LIES TO OUR EAST WHILE A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. CAUGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, SOUTH/
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, SLOWLY GIVING
WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL LEAD TO STRONG
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THIS
LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY SPAN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN ITS FLOW. EACH OF
THESE SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED JET CORES WILL ENHANCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. TUESDAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF WINDY
CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. IN
ANTICIPATION OF HAZARDOUS WINDS, THESE LOCATIONS ARE UNDER A HIGH
WIND WATCH, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. EXPECT BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE TUESDAY. SUCH WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING DUST THAT COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS TUESDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, WHILE PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS COULD SEE PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE PANHANDLE INTO THE BIG BEND. WEST OF THE TROUGH (SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS) HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 70S. EAST OF THE TROUGH (THE PERMIAN BASIN, BIG BEND, MOST OF
THE TRANS PECOS) HIGHS REACH INTO THE 80S. AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WILL TOP OUT IN THE 90S. GIVEN VERY WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
AND STRONG WINDS, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TUESDAY. THIS BEING THE CASE, THERE IS A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH EFFECTIVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
GAINES COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MORE
DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND ARE AHEAD
WITHIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WEDNESDAY, THE JET CORE OF THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM ADVANCES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. DURING THIS PROGRESSION, OUR REGION WILL LIE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE JET CORE, BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH
WINDS, INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL OF THESE
HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, AND
THE SURROUNDING PLAINS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON ACCOUNT OF THIS, FURTHER FIRE WEATHER AND
WIND PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE. CONTRARY TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS MAINLY RANGE WITHIN THE
70S, WITH 80S IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND THE BIG BEND.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OUR TROUBLESOME LARGE-SCALE TROUGH LOOKS TO
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. THE BRUNT OF THE JET CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST OF OUR REGION OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE TWO DAYS. WINDS REMAIN STRONG THURSDAY, THOUGH TO A
SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
THURSDAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TEXAS, 70S ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE,
AND 80S IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG
WINDS MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY. FRIDAY,
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND TEMPERATURES REACH THE 60S TO 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH IN SATURDAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS YET AGAIN, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT
IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR LOOKS TO SET IN SUNDAY, AS HIGHS RANGE WITHIN
THE 50S AND 60S. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINNING
TO DEPART TO OUR EAST SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER RIDGE TO MAKE
ITS WAY IN AND BRING ABOUT CALMER WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY DUE TO CRITICAL MINRH,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY WINDS. A LARGE-SCALE AND SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND HAVE RECEIVED LESS RAIN
COMPARED TO AREAS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WILL HAVE DRIER
EXISTING FUELS. COMBINE THIS WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER WINDS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO SEE NEAR-CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS AS FINER FUELS CURE. GREATEST CONCERNS LIE
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN ON
TUESDAY. GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVENTUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND TRANS PECOS. HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH MAY MITIGATE FIRE IGNITION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 79 51 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 80 49 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 80 49 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 84 53 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 50 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 77 46 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 76 41 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 79 51 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 78 51 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 80 46 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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