518
FXUS64 KMAF 120441
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1041 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO THE BIG BEND, PRESIDIO
VALLEY, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS STARTING THIS EVENING, WHICH
GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX
WITH SNOW AT TIMES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT LITTLE/NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO/JUST BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TICK UP A FEW DEGREES
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS STAY IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS TONIGHT DIP BACK INTO THE 20S FOR THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LOW-TO-MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, A BIT FARTHER AWAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MEANDERING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. OVERNIGHT, THIS
LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
AREA.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW WILL YIELD INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE BIG
BEND, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
MOST MODELS ALSO NOW INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THESE AREAS. THAT BEING SAID, A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN (IE THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
CHINATIS, ETC). HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN
ANY OF THESE AREAS. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES MAXIMIZE
OVER THE BIG BEND, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS THE MAIN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARS THE REGION (40-70% CHANCES). PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS
AND SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ONCE AGAIN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS (WHICH
WILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S), HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 50S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMONPLACE MONDAY.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES PLUMMET, AND REMAIN NONEXISTENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, HIGHS TICK UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS SKIES CLEAR, BUT YET
AGAIN STAY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL (50S AND LOW 60S). WINDS ALSO
BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY, HELPING HIGHS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW-TO-MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY. THOUGH A WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, IT DOES LITTLE MORE THAN YIELD NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAS
VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, THURSDAY'S
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY END UP 2-7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY'S. BY
FRIDAY, YET ANOTHER FRONT DROPS DOWN. THIS TIME, HIGHS DO TICK BACK
DOWN CLOSER TO/JUST BELOW NORMAL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 29 59 33 61 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD 27 55 28 61 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN 38 56 40 61 / 10 20 70 20
FORT STOCKTON 34 56 39 58 / 0 20 60 30
GUADALUPE PASS 30 48 33 52 / 0 0 10 10
HOBBS 27 56 27 62 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA 26 47 28 53 / 20 40 70 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 31 56 35 59 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA 32 56 35 58 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 28 55 32 59 / 0 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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