884
FXUS64 KMAF 090736
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
136 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
LIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS OR EVEN A DECREASE IN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 80S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE BIG BEND AND
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. POPS ARE
DECENT, RANGING FROM THE 30S TO THE 60S, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY AND MANY AREAS MAY SEE ONLY LITTLE RAIN, OR PERHAPS EVEN
NONE AT ALL. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
DROPPING HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE UPPER LOW PASSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHING RAIN SHOWERS
OFF TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HANG INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON DAMPENING AFTERNOON WARMING AND KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN EARLY BURN OFF COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO
CREEP UP HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK
UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AS A BROAD RIDGE TRANSITS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES
EAST BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
OPEN AND POSITIVELY TILTED NATURE OF THE TROUGH MEAN THE BEST
CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. THERE
WILL STILL BE RAIN CHANCES OUT WEST, BUT A DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER
MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO EVAPORATION. THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN LOWER
TEMPERATURES SOME THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
HENNIG
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THICK HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 78 54 71 44 / 0 10 50 60
CARLSBAD 73 50 65 44 / 0 10 60 30
DRYDEN 82 56 74 51 / 0 10 50 30
FORT STOCKTON 79 58 72 49 / 0 20 60 40
GUADALUPE PASS 64 51 58 44 / 0 10 60 30
HOBBS 73 49 66 41 / 0 10 50 50
MARFA 72 46 66 38 / 0 20 70 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 77 55 71 45 / 0 10 50 60
ODESSA 76 55 71 45 / 0 10 60 60
WINK 76 52 68 45 / 0 10 60 50
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...29
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