338
FXUS64 KMAF 132317
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND ARE FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, ADJACENT AREAS
IN THE TRANS PECOS, AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER
OUR REGION. AS THE RIDGE TRAVERSES EASTWARD THIS EVENING, LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY
FORMING NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST, WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT RESULT IN LOWS COOLING TO THE 60S. THURSDAY, THE
RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST, WHILE BECOMING DAMPENED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH ROLLING INTO THE NORTHERN US. DESPITE THIS, BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S
TO LOW 100S (NEAR AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS). THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE BIG BEND, WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHALL REACH OR SURPASS 105 DEGREES. HOT TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
WINDS, AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS RAISE CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST TEXAS
BEGINNING THURSDAY. AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT MAY COME
IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD MAY COMBINE WITH LIFT
FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, ADJACENT AREAS IN THE TRANS PECOS, AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY
NIGHT, ELEVATED WINDS KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS,
A SURFACE LOW LINGERING NEAR THE PANHANDLE KEEPS BREEZY WEST/
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS A RESPONSE, DOWNSLOPING WINDS PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST OF
THE TWO DAYS, AS TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVERLAYS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN, THE UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AGAIN,
THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE BIG BEND, WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS CLOSER TO
OUR REGION, BRINGING LOWER HEIGHTS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS REACH THE 80S IN/NEAR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH
90S ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
HEIGHTENED OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO, AND MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE TRANS PECOS
GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH MAY
AID IN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS. TUESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS AND SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
MIX OUT EITHER JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION, OR SOMEWHERE WITHIN IT.
FOR NOW, TUESDAY'S ARE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GENERALLY PROGGED TO COOL INTO THE 60S TO
70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR PREVIALS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 95 65 97 70 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 96 64 99 66 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 93 65 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 93 65 99 70 / 0 0 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS 84 66 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 93 62 97 64 / 0 0 10 10
MARFA 88 55 91 58 / 0 0 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 94 65 96 69 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 93 66 96 70 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 96 65 99 68 / 0 0 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page