096
FXUS64 KMAF 080810
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-40% CHANCE)
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN/AROUND THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 10 F ABOVE NORMAL, MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY
JULY THAN MID MAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-
40%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN AND
AROUND THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPER
OFF BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
80S FOR MOST (EXCEPT 70S IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND 90S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE). ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH NIGHTS.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS SUNDAY'S HIGHS INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AND SHIFT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER IN THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CREATE GAP WINDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY, REINFORCING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AREAWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 70S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 90S IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
HOWEVER, THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING
OUT INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME SPOTS
IN THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE POSSIBLY REACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
GREENING
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS DECREASING TO MVFR OR LOWER 08Z-12Z FOR TERMINALS
ON EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU, PERMIAN BASIN, LEA COUNTY, AND UPPER
TRANS PECOS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING EXTENT AND LOCATION OF
ANY BR/FG AND ACCOMPANYING VIS REDUCTIONS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY,
LOWEST CIGS AND HIGHEST CHANCE OF VIS DOWN TO IFR ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED OVER LEA COUNTY 12Z-16Z FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE CIGS AT
TERMINALS RISE BACK TO VFR 16Z-19Z. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS SHIFT TO WESTERLY FOR TERMINALS OVER THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU AS VFR CONDITIONS RETURN,
WHILE STAYING SOUTHERLY ELSEWHERE. HIGHER WINDS AND CONDITIONS
AGAIN DROPPING BELOW VFR ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
TERMINALS ON UPPER TRANS PECOS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU 18Z-01Z,
ESPECIALLY 20Z-00Z FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
THEREAFTER INTO END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 84 60 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 87 56 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 87 62 89 64 / 0 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 87 58 93 64 / 20 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 57 85 63 / 10 0 0 0
HOBBS 85 55 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 81 47 87 52 / 20 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 83 60 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 83 60 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 86 58 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94
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