799
FXUS64 KMAF 221127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, REMAINING 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, PROVIDING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THERE IS LOW (5-
15%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN GIVEN
THAT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE ARE FORECASTED TO BE CO-
LOCATED WITH THESE AREAS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES, THUS, THIS IS WHY RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. A
TRACE TO 0.02" OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED IF ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURS. DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STICKS AROUND FOR THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW (10-15%)
CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY AREAS OF FOG, PERHAPS FREEZING FOG, REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. GIVEN THE CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
SPANNING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AREAWIDE.
500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS INCREASE AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD
WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION,
DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL, THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS
FROM THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES KEEP ON WARMING UP HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS!
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING EMBEDDED WITHIN A PREVALENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS MONDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL
BECOME ENHANCED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS, PROMOTING A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING/BECOMING DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH OTHERWISE LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGHS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE TRANS PECOS,
AND THE BIG BEND REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MAY
APPROACH 90 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLIP ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
BRING INCREASED NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TREND A
LITTLE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES (EXCEPT MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE). ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED GIVEN A LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
OVER MOST AREAS (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE).
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LOWS EACH MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH VFR PREVALENT ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 53 29 72 36 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 51 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 51 30 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 55 33 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 52 36 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 51 28 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 62 32 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 52 29 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 53 30 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 53 28 75 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
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