289
FXUS64 KMAF 181118
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
- LOW (10-30%) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER-LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS
WILL PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION LATER ON TODAY,
PROVIDING A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL LIE ACROSS THE DAVIS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON, THANKS TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS A COLD FRONT AS WELL. THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP, THIS MAY
SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE LOW RAIN CHANCES DUE TO BEING ANOTHER SOURCE
OF ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID 80S TO MID 90S) ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS FURTHER EASTWARD, WHILE
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AND MONDAY CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAYS THIS PERIOD AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MOST (EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY SEND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND,
PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT/INSTABILITY FOR LOW (10-30%)
CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICT A
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ITS
MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER OUR AREA, THIS WILL
MEAN THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(DEPENDING ON MOISTURE QUALITY) COULD BE EXPECTED. IF IT REMAINS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS MORE DATA
COMES IN AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. PLEASE STAY TUNED!
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS HOB, MAF, FST, AND
INK TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEREFORE, TS PROB30
WAS IMPLEMENTED FOR CNM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 89 66 91 68 / 0 10 10 0
CARLSBAD 88 65 88 65 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN 91 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 90 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 79 62 79 63 / 30 20 20 30
HOBBS 86 63 86 64 / 10 20 10 20
MARFA 82 58 83 59 / 20 10 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 90 67 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA 88 67 89 68 / 10 10 10 10
WINK 89 66 90 67 / 10 10 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11
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