342
FXUS64 KMAF 072243
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-50%) RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS,
LEAVING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, BUTTRESSED BY A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. THIS
PATTERN WILL SEND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES UP THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW,
RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED THICKNESSES WILL CONTINUE, ENSURING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE LATE MARCH THAN EARLY FEBRUARY, AS HIGHS TOP OUT ~ 12-14 F
ABOVE NORMAL. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM,
AS WELL. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE 16-18 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY,
BUT WILL COOL 2-3 F SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A LITTLE LESS CLOUD
COVER/WIND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT OFF LOW MAKES A MARCH FROM MEXICO TOWARD OUR
REGION MONDAY. TODAY'S ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED FOR A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S. AS PER RECENT DATA, THE UPPER LOW SWINGS FROM THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR CWA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT DOES SO. THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE AND A SOURCE OF LIFT ALONG WITH
IT, SPELLING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO START IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, SPREADING EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST
BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT OUR PEAK, POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 10-50% AREAWIDE, WITH BEST (30-50%) ODDS
GENERALLY BEING FOUND OVER WEST TEXAS. THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, REJOINING THE GENERAL FLOW AND ALLOWING FOR
RIDGING TO RETURN ALOFT, THUS ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES. RAINFALL
TOTALS STILL LOOK SCANT, AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH (IN THE BIG BEND).
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN SPRING-LIKE, TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND SLIPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S EACH NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
80S ARE AHEAD FOR THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VIRGA COULD LEAD TO GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS BENEATH THIS DECK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 50 78 46 75 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 47 73 44 72 / 10 0 0 10
DRYDEN 52 77 52 75 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 55 76 52 75 / 10 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 46 65 47 64 / 10 0 0 20
HOBBS 47 74 43 73 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA 42 70 41 68 / 20 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 51 76 47 75 / 10 10 0 10
ODESSA 51 76 48 74 / 10 10 0 10
WINK 48 76 44 74 / 10 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29
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