718
FXUS64 KMAF 210845
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- NEAR TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT INTRUDES UPON THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT MONDAY,
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RECOVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUES! WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DOMINATING
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY, NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE, RETURN FLOW CONTINUES, AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AS SUCH, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
YESTERDAY, MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR & SPACE PORT SET A NEW RECORD
OF 96 F, BEATING THE OLD RECORD OF 94 F SET IN 2017. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK LIKE LOW-HANGING FRUIT AS WELL, AS HIGHS TODAY
AND SUNDAY WILL PLATEAU ALMOST 25 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY, MAKING IT
FEEL MORE LIKE LATE JUNE THAN LATE MARCH. CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY, PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE HEAT.
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE LARGELY NEGATED BY A 40 KT LLJ SET
TO DEVELOP, KEEPING MIXING IN PLAY AND OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE UPPER CONUS WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION, W/THE LATEST NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS
PUTTING FROPA AT KMAF ~ 05Z MONDAY, A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW HOURS OF HIGH GAP WINDS THROUGH
KGDP, BUT THIS TIME OF YEAR, MODELS EASE UP ON WINDS AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SINCE THIS IS 4TH PERIOD, WE'LL FORGO A WATCH ATTM.
THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK UPWARDS OF 15 F OFF TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MAKING MONDAY THE COOLEST DAY THIS FORECAST. EVEN SO,
HIGHS WILL STILL COME IN ~ 7-9 F ABOVE NORMAL.
FORTUNATELY, THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE EPHEMERAL, AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND QUICKLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD, W/THE
LREF CENTERING IT OVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE 20-25 F ABOVE NORMAL,
SIMILAR TO WHAT'S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
IS DUE TO INTRUDE UPON THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, KNOCKING AROUND
5 F OFF HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RETURN, AND THE GRIDS REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR/CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE, BUT GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
TODAY, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING ERCS AND AND DRYING FUELS TO RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF
WEST TEXAS.
SUNDAY, UNDER RECORD-BREAKING HEAT, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS EVERYWHERE, AND IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RFTI OF 4.
ALTHOUGH PRE- FRONTAL 20-FT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER TEPID,
ERCS WILL BE 90TH PERCENTILE OR ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NORTH. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WILL CRITICALLY TO EXTREMELY DRY FUELS TO PROMOTE
AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASY FIRE STARTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
AFTER 00Z, AND THIS WILL EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FIRE STARTS. FOR
THESE REASONS, WE'LL ISSUE A FAIRLY BROAD WATCH FOR SUNDAY, AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT WHITTLE IT DOWN TO A WARNING ONCE 20-FT WIND
FIELDS ARE BETTER-DEFINED. ATTM, THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE
EVERYTHING EAST OF THE PECOS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 61 99 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 97 55 99 53 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 98 56 97 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 65 100 56 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 88 61 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 96 54 98 49 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 90 47 91 46 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 60 99 54 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 96 60 98 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 97 54 99 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-
DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-
GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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