534
FXUS64 KMAF 140658
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY. A STRONG FRONT CAUSES
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(ESPECIALLY IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS). STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SITTING UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. A TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OUT
AHEAD OF IT, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN AND
AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN (THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY
EVENING). THESE STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. IN FACT, THE CURRENT
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 89 DEGREES AT KMAF STILL APPEARS TO BE
IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING TODAY. THE NBM GIVES MIDLAND A NEARLY 50%
CHANCE OF REACHING 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WILL BE COMMONPLACE. CONTINUED
VERY DRY CONDITIONS, PLUS THE INCREASING WINDS, WILL ALSO YIELD
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, MAINLY FOR EDDY AND CULBERSON
COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
BREEZY WINDS PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS. MOST LOCATIONS ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ALOFT DIGS INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. AS
A RESULT, VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE ON TAP STARTING SUNDAY MORNING, AND
ADDITIONAL WIND PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY (> 80% CONFIDENCE) BE NEEDED.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD FRONT ALSO ENTERS THE AREA,
BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH IT AND CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET. FOR THE TIME BEING, HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES SINCE MOST GUIDANCE HAS TENDED
TO KEEP THOSE ZONES BELOW CRITERIA, DESPITE THE FRONT AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. IN ANY CASE, WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
BE DEEMED NECESSARY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. CRITICAL TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). HIGHS MANAGE TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW-TO-MID 80S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FRONT SENDS
TEMPERATURES CRASHING DOWN. MORE DETAILS ON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION!
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THE
BACK SIDE OF A MID TO UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
GIVING WAY TO BRIEF TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE EARLY WEEK,
BEFORE RIDGING THAN RAPIDLY BUILDS BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUNDAY NIGHT, GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH
FROM THE CO ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. EXPECT GUSTIEST
WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER FROM THE EVENING INTO MIDNIGHT BEFORE
WINDS BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FINALLY BECOME LIGHT
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. HIGHER WINDS IN THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE WITH OVERNIGHT COOLING AND
THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE RETAINED. THIS WILL MEAN LOWS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S F NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS
RIVER AND OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU, NEAR FREEZING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE AND TERRELL COUNTY, AND INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S F FOR THE RIO GRANDE AND TERRELL COUNTY. THESE LOWS HAVE
DECREASED SINCE FORECAST RUNS 24 HOURS PRIOR, ATTESTING TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S F
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS F
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT, DESPITE SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ATTEMPTING TO SPIN UP A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL COME AS AN UNWELCOME SHOCK TO ANY EARLY
BLOOMING PLANTS AS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS NOT SEEN BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY TO MID FEBRUARY. IF YOU HAVE ANY COLD
SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT YOU HAVE BROUGHT OUTDOORS, BE SURE TO BRING
THEM INDOORS BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT. CAA PERSISTS MONDAY AS TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM STAYS IN PLACE
FOR ONE MORE DAY, DESPITE WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MEAN HIGHS NOT RISING ABOVE 60 F FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE GUADALUPES INTO MARFA
PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS, HIGHS NOT RISING ABOVE 50 F FOR THE
GUADALUPES, DAVIS MOUNTAINS, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE 60S F TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MARFA
PLATEAU. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THESE HIGHS TOO HAVE COME
DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT FALL NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN
AND TERRELL COUNTY INTO SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AND INTO THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S F FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AND TERRELL COUNTY
INTO SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN.
ALMOST AS RAPIDLY AS THE COOLDOWN BEGAN, THE WARM-UP BEGINS AFTER
MONDAY, AND ONLY PERSISTS AND BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INTO LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY OF NEXT
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO RAIN CHANCES WITH INCREASED LARGE
SCALE SINKING MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ACCORDING TO NAEFS ENSEMBLES, STRENGTH OF RIDGING
FROM HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKEWISE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS GO FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S F RANGE,
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY -
TO MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S F, 90S F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PARTS
OF THE PECOS RIVER IN EDDY COUNTY WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWER 80S F
ONLY OVER SOUTHEASTERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
STRONGER RIDGING. LOWS LIKEWISE AGAIN FAIL TO BACK BELOW FREEZING
AFTER MONDAY NIGHT, SETTLING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F
RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND INTO UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE WARMING TREND DOES NOT STOP THERE. BY THURSDAY, HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S F, MID TO UPPER 90S F ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE, AND ONLY DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE PRESENT, WITH LOWS STILL MANAGING TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S F FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES BELOW 50F AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MANAGE TO
MAINTAIN EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT COOLING. THE END OF THE WEEK CLOSES
OFF WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN, LIKELY WARMER
THAN WHAT WE WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE BEGINNING OF THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RISE SOLIDLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S F, MID 80S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND, WHILE LOWS SETTLE
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S F RANGE. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
SHOWING STRONG RIDGING HOLDING INTO AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND, THE COLD AND WINDY WEATHER OF THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL BE A
DISTANT MEMORY AS TEMPERATURES ABRUPTLY RISE BACK TO MORE TYPICAL
OF MAY THAN MID TO LATE MARCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS, GUADALUPE AND DELAWARES, CULBERSON COUNTY, AND EDDY
COUNTY FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS RFTIS RISE INTO THE
5-7 RANGE, WESTERLY 20-FT WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 MPH, ERCS
NEAR OR IN THE 70TH TO 89TH PERCENTILE REMAIN PRESENT, AND MIN RH
AGAIN FALLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOLLOWING POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY. INCREASING WESTERLY 20-FT WINDS SUNDAY, CONTINUED WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND MIN RH BELOW CRITICAL 15% WILL
PROMPT RFTIS AT LEAST 7-8 AND AREAWIDE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SUNDAY PRIOR TO COLDER
AIR AND NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS THEREFORE NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THEREAFTER, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING WINDS LEAD TO
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY, AND DESPITE A WARMING TREND
AFTER MONDAY, CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS MAINTAIN THESE LOW FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 58 83 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 89 59 85 28 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 95 60 93 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 63 87 32 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 77 56 74 26 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 86 54 79 23 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 82 47 78 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 59 84 27 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 88 59 83 27 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 90 56 82 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-
CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page