361
FXUS64 KMAF 101024
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
424 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 422 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS FORECAST, IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS WINTER, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND BEYOND.
- A STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES, OR
EVEN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, IS
EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AFTER TODAY, PEAKING AT 8-10 F ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS INTRUDED UPON WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY MORNING. WITHOUT A
SENSOR AT KGDP, IT'S DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHETHER HIGH WINDS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE GAP. HOWEVER, JUDGING BY SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS,
MOS, AND PAST EXPERIENCE, HIGH WINDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z.
TODAY WILL EASILY BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS FORECAST AS CAA CONTINUES,
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH ~ 5-7 F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL EAST AND SOUTH, BUT NOT BEFORE A CUT-OFF LOW SEPARATES
FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND PARKS ITSELF OVER BAJA.
TONIGHT, WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE, AND WILL COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LIKE TODAY, THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS FORECAST (AS WELL AS THIS WINTER)
AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 5 F BELOW NORMAL, PUTTING MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE 20S. WITH ANY LUCK, EVEN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL FINALLY
SEE ITS FIRST FREEZE.
FORTUNATELY, RETURN FLOW RESUMES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ARRESTING
CAA, AND A GRADUAL WARMUP COMMENCES AS THICKNESSES BEGIN CLIMBING.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA DEL SUR. THIS WILL SEND SHORTWAVES UP THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER MEXICO SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND AREA, WITH
RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 24 HOURS AGO, THE
ECMWF WAS THE ONLY LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO DEPICT THIS, BUT
THIS MORNING THE GFS AND CMC HAVE JUMPED ON BOARD, AS WELL AS THE
NAM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
IN THE LONG TERM, THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
KEEP DEVELOPING NORTH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, CHANGING
TO -RASN OR JUST SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER WARM, SUPPORTING THIS MARGINALLY AT BEST,
ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
UNDER 1/2", AND GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD MELT ANY ACCUMULATION.
NBM IS EVEN INSERTING -FZRA INTO THE MIX OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT, BUT SOUNDINGS DON'T EVEN
COME CLOSE TO FITTING THAT PROFILE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, SKEPTICISM
REMAINS HIGH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 18Z TUESDAY, AFTER WHICH
THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS WEST TEXAS.
OTHERWISE, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO DRY NORTHWEST AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. GRIDS ARE BONE DRY AFTER TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST AS HIGHS TOP OUT ~ 8-10 F ABOVE NORMAL. A
WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS 2-3 F
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY, BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 52 23 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 49 23 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 56 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 51 24 56 31 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 41 25 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 50 23 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 46 15 51 24 / 0 0 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 51 25 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 51 26 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 51 22 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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