417
FXUS64 KMAF 290934 CCA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 336 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS, VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ONGOING EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE GUADALUPE
AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
INTO TEXAS THAT IS RIGHT ALONG A DRYLINE. AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD, THE AIRMASS OVER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WILL BECOME DRIER. THE DRIER AIR, COMBINED WITH HIGHER
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS RAISES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY
(PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).
AS SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS (STRONGER
WINDS IN THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS). BLOWING DUST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (INCLUDING GUADALUPE/DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS) AND CULBERSON COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS DUE TO HIGH WINDS.
HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND DUE TO A 850 MB JET OF 30-40KTS OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS) FOR MOST DUE TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 3-5
DEGREES COOLER FOR MANY BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A DRY MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREVALENT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TRENDING COOLER IN THE 40S OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY OVER MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE 70S AND 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT PERHAPS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THIS FEATURE. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING AN
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH SHOULD BOOST OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
QUITE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. A PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH AND/OR UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OR DESERT SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
QUESTION AS ALWAYS IS IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN RETURN
TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN TIME TO INTERACT WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, OR WILL
DRY SLOTTING WIN OUT AND KEEP MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES TO OUR EAST?
NBM POPS LOOK TOO OPTIMISTIC LATE NEXT WEEK AT THIS POINT, WHICH
OFTEN SEEMS TO BE THE CASE HERE IN OUR AREA. WE WILL GO SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN NBM, BUT STILL ADVERTISE A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN NEXT THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY
WINDS PICK UP BY MID-MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. INK, MAF,
AND FST WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE FIRST 6
HOURS OR SO OF THIS PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 8 TO 12
PERCENT, AND ERC VALUES ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE (AND IN SOME
CASES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA) WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RFTI
VALUES RANGING AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 6 TO 10
PERCENT AND ERC VALUES IN EXCESS OF THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES.
WESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS OVER 20 MPH WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, CULBERSON COUNTY, AND THE EDDY
COUNTY PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 90 55 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 79 51 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 91 59 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 88 58 84 56 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 71 50 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 79 49 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 77 49 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 86 56 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 85 56 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 84 52 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL
BREWSTER-CRANE-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-
DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-
REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-EASTERN
CULBERSON-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND
DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EDDY PLAINS-SACRAMENTO FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...55
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