304
FXUS64 KMAF 181856
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
156 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT (10-30% CHANCES). LOW-TO-MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%)
STICK AROUND FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REDEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN PARTICULAR HAVE ALREADY HIT (OR ARE VERY CLOSE
TO HITTING) 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT HAS
BEGUN SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA. THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE IT STALLS AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND BEGINS TO WASH OUT. BOTH THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING ARE MAINTAINED AND WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM CDT TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS AND TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS. IMPRESSIVE DCAPE VALUES (ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000
J/KG IN GENERAL) SUGGESTS STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 10-30% THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AREAWIDE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW-TO-MID 70S. FRIDAY'S HIGHS END UP IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, WITH 100S STICKING AROUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. MOIST
UPSLOPING WINDS, A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE DECAYING FRONT HELPS MAINTAIN LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES (20-40%) TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10. RAIN CHANCES TAPER DOWN THAT EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT END UP SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. THIS CAUSES
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
TRANS-PECOS. HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) BECOME CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND BEYOND. HOWEVER, SOME LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE STILL TRIES TO BRING CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED BOUNDARIES INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, LOW RAIN
CHANCES (10-30%) ARE MAINTAINED FOR THESE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED AS WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
KMAF/KINK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO
A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS BY MORNING AT KMAF/KHOB SO MONITOR
FOR UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 91 71 96 / 30 20 10 10
CARLSBAD 69 96 71 101 / 20 10 0 0
DRYDEN 76 98 73 96 / 30 40 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 71 96 71 98 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 67 88 68 93 / 30 20 0 0
HOBBS 65 91 67 97 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA 62 92 61 94 / 30 40 0 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 92 71 96 / 30 10 10 0
ODESSA 70 92 71 96 / 30 10 10 0
WINK 70 96 72 100 / 30 10 10 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CENTRAL BREWSTER-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-CRANE-DAVIS
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-DAWSON-ECTOR-LOVING-
MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GLASSCOCK-
HOWARD-LOWER BREWSTER COUNTY-MITCHELL-REAGAN-TERRELL.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29
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