962
FXUS64 KMAF 051109
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BETWEEN S/SE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT
KINK/KFST/KMAF. TSRA WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME AFTER 18Z AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS, BUT LOCATION/TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WILL UPDATE IN
FUTURE ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND WESTWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES EACH
AFTERNOON WILL TICK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
FOR TODAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
100S PEAKING BACK INTO THE NE PERMIAN BASIN. AS THE CASE HAS BEEN
EACH DAY OVER THE PAST WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES BEING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW MONDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SOME BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE STORMS RESULTING IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I
HAVE ADDED IN THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERMIAN BASIN GIVEN A SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER
WEST, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MNTS DOWN TOWARDS THE DAVIS MNTS AND MARFA PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
NOT A LOT OF DAY TO DAY CHANGE UNDER THE RIDGE. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SE US AS A
TROUGH SITS OFF THE WA/OR COAST. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SW US WITH THE CENTER MIGRATING TO THE 4 CORNERS
REGION FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTER ON THURSDAY WITH 100S SPREADING ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS TO BE AT OR
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 70S FOR ALL BUT A LUCKY FEW.
STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WHAT FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 99 76 101 75 / 10 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 96 71 96 71 / 30 20 20 20
DRYDEN 98 76 100 76 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON 96 75 98 74 / 40 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS 87 67 86 68 / 40 30 30 30
HOBBS 95 71 96 69 / 30 30 20 10
MARFA 89 63 89 62 / 60 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 97 75 99 74 / 20 20 10 10
ODESSA 96 76 98 75 / 20 20 10 10
WINK 98 75 99 75 / 30 20 10 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...88
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