782
FXUS64 KMAF 161124
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
524 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
IN THE PERMIAN BASIN) WITH THE PASSING OF A DRY COLD FRONT
FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
- LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE BIG BEND AND PRESIDIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
TO NORTHEAST AND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
MOST). WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOK TO BE A BIT BREEZY (SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE) ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. GIVEN
RECENT GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS, WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 12Z (6AM
CST) THROUGH 18Z (NOON CST) FRIDAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET
CRITERIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO
RELAX AND FOR SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT, YIELDING OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S AND 30S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT SATURDAY, YIELDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND 50S FURTHER SOUTH. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
GREENING
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
TEMPERATURES RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
REDEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY, BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY RANGE FROM LOW-
TO-MID 50S FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS TO 60S FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES IT DOWN THERE.
MEANWHILE, BY TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE AREAWIDE. LOW (10-20%) RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL SHOWING UP
IN THE BIG BEND TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITHIN THE GEFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF KEEP
MOST OF THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S FOR MOST (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE (GUSTS UP TO 35KTS) AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. WINDS TAPER OFF BY AROUND 21Z AND
BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 55 26 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 55 28 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 65 32 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 57 32 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 50 31 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 53 24 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 58 21 57 18 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 54 27 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 54 28 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 56 28 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-DAWSON-
ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL LEA-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55
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