434
FXUS64 KMAF 181725
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019
DISCUSSION
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND
BREEZY, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION PREVAILING AREAWIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AT MAF/INK/FST, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION
PRECLUDES MENTION, THUS WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST COULD ACCOMPANY
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REGION. TODAY THIS RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX AND NM
PRODUCING ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
WEST WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY STARTED OFF AS A HOT MORNING AND CONTINUED ON TO BE A HOT
DAY. ON SATURDAY MAF GENERATED A RECORD WARM LOW AT 81 DEGREES AS
TEMPS WERE SLOW TO COOL. TATUM... SEAGRAVES... MIDLAND... CRANE...
SNYDER... GAIL... COLORADO CITY... DRYDEN... CASTOLON... CARLSBAD...
PECOS... COYANOSA AND PERSIMMON GAP ALL HIT OR EXCEEDED 105 DEGREES
YESTERDAY. THE HOTTEST WAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT 113 DEGREES. AS OF
08Z HAVE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND STILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM START TO THE
DAY. MAY SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT MAF TODAY AT 106 DEGREES.
WENT AT OR OVER GUIDANCE YESTERDAY AND WAS STILL NOT ENOUGH IN
SOME LOCATIONS SO WILL GO 1 TO 2 DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE TODAY. WILL
ISSUE AN EXPANDED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
PERMIAN BASIN... NORTHERN LEA COUNTY... AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
IN THE BIG BEND.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THE BEGINNING OF
DECREASING TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY... HOWEVER MODELS ALSO SEEM
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WITH A 594-595
HIGH SITTING RIGHT OVER THE CWA MONDAY WHICH SHOULD INDICATE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING 850MB TEMPS
WITH THIS MONDAY BUT MODELS DEVELOP COOLER TEMPS. SO FOR NOW WILL GO
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER GUIDANCE MONDAY AND SEE IF GUIDANCE CATCHES
UP WITH THE UPPER PATTERN. STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK SUB 100 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
WITH ALL THIS HEAT AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN LOOK FOR THE
RECENT PATTERN OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO
CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. MAY EVEN SEE SOME STORMS ACROSS LEA OR
GAINES COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW POPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 105 75 102 76 / 0 10 0 0
CARLSBAD 106 72 103 73 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN 107 79 104 79 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 104 78 101 74 / 10 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 98 71 96 70 / 0 10 10 10
HOBBS 103 72 100 71 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA 95 65 94 62 / 20 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 106 79 102 76 / 0 10 0 0
ODESSA 105 78 102 76 / 0 10 0 0
WINK 107 78 105 75 / 0 10 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-
CRANE-DAWSON-ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOWER BREWSTER
COUNTY-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-REAGAN-SCURRY-UPTON.
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