733
FXUS64 KMAF 281108
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL CARRY A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT WITH A CHANCE
OF STRONGER STORMS TOMORROW. VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER, WITH AN OMEGA-
BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUING TO SETTLE INTO PLACE, INCREASED MID TO
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. TODAY, HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
F, MID TO UPPER 90S F RIO GRANDE BASINS, AND TRIPLE DIGITS FROM THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND, WHILE HUMID, SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS CONTINUE. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL AGAIN SETUP OVER WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN, SEPARATING DRIER AIR TO THE WEST (CHARACTERIZED BY
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S F) FROM MORE HUMID
AIR TO THE EAST (CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S F). AS FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE
DRYLINE INTERACTS WITH HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER
DISTURBANCES WITHIN CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A 5% TO 15%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AND THE MAIN STORY OTHER
THAN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BREEZY 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. WINDS DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING EXCEPT
FOR WITHIN A LLJ OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO TERRELL COUNTY.
TONIGHT, LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S F AS A RESULT
OF THE DRYLINE RETROGRADING WEST AND BRINGING EVEN MORE HUMID AIR
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING. A SLIGHT 5% TO
10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED.
TOMORROW WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAY SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
THE SPC HAS MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN OUTLOOKED IN A MRGL RISK, AS
CAPE INCREASES INTO AT LEAST THE 800-1000 J/KG RANGE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THAT WILL AGAIN SETUP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE, 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR INCREASES INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE OWING TO MORE FREQUENT MID TO UPPER
DISTURBANCES WITHIN A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMBEDDED THE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC PATTERN ABOVE THE SURFACE, STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN MX INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WIND SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS SUPPORTING DISCRETE
STORM CLUSTERS. HIGH-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM SRH IN THE
EVENING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU, INCREASING
ABOVE THE 80 M2/S2 THRESHOLD FOR TORNADOGENESIS. HOWEVER, HIGH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS/LOW RH IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES - INCLUDING WITHIN A REGION OF MAXIMUM VERTICAL
VELOCITY - SUGGEST THE HIGHER SEVERE RISK WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING IN LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE REGIONS GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS. THE DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE MAY ULTIMATELY PREVENT WIDESPREAD STORM MODE AND STORMS ARE
NOT A GUARANTEE AS CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (25% TO 35%) AND
RESTRICTED TO THE SE NM PLAINS INTO TERRELL COUNTY. OTHERWISE, A
SHARPENING DRYLINE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE HUMID DAY OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
INTO TERRELL COUNTY, WHILE SIMILARLY WARM AND DRY TEMPERATURES TO
TODAY WILL BE FOUND WEST OF THE DRYLINE. TOMORROW NIGHT, MUCH THE
SAME AS TONIGHT. A WARMER AND DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
WEAKER WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST COMPARED TO FRIDAY. WITH THE WEAKER
FORCING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS, A VERY LOW ( < 15%)
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS AND FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER
80S TO UPPER 90S REGIONWIDE. BY SUNDAY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SENDING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. AS A RESULT, THIS ALLOWS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS. A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER, PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND RIO GRANDE ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
AND LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY BRING INCREASED
COVERAGE OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE SYSTEM'S TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH. DETAILS
OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER TO TIME.
LAMBERSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT TERMINALS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
18Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRAY 10% TO 20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AT TERMINALS ON THE SE NM PLAINS INTO MARFA PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN A LLJ FOR
TERMINALS OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND STOCKTON PLATEAU
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 88 66 88 68 / 0 0 10 20
CARLSBAD 91 64 91 64 / 20 10 20 0
DRYDEN 93 70 95 72 / 0 0 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 91 66 92 68 / 10 0 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 82 63 83 64 / 20 10 10 0
HOBBS 87 62 86 61 / 0 10 20 10
MARFA 90 56 88 58 / 20 0 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 87 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA 87 66 88 67 / 0 0 10 10
WINK 89 66 90 66 / 10 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94
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