618
FXUS64 KMAF 200427
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1127 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1121 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE
TRENDING UPWARD BY MIDWEEK.
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (10-40%) RAIN
CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION
OUT OF THE WEST. WITH IT, LOW CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
AS MUCH AS THIS MORNING. MANY WILL END UP IN THE 40S WITH AREAS
ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN ACROSS BIG BEND IN THE LOW
50S. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY LOW (10-30%) WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
REMAINING LOW WITH MOST SPOTS SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
TOMORROW SEES ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BEFORE DECAYING OR EXITING TO THE EAST BY THE EVENING. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S INTO THE 70S DEPENDING ON CLOUD AND RAIN
COVERAGE. RAIN AMOUNTS, IF MEASURABLE, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE LOW
SIDE, BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY ONWARD, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND RIDGING REESTABLISHES OVERHEAD.
HIGHS REACH THE 70S/80S TUESDAY, THEN THE 80S/90S WEDNESDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 10-30%, WITH BEST ODDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. MIDWEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES OVER THE WESTERN US. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
THURSDAY, AS THE JET STREAK OF THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WOULD LIKELY BE WITHIN THE GUADALUPE/ DELAWARE MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR REGION. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS SEND THURSDAY'S HIGHS INTO
THE 80S AND 90S. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FRIDAY, BUT SOME MODELS SHOW THIS QUICKLY MIXING OUT,
KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER REINFORCING PUSH FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS MIGHT FINALLY SEND THIS FRONT DOWN LATE
SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
TAFS WILL BE A MESS NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS NORTH
THROUGH THE PECOS RVR VALLEY/LWR TRANS PECOS, RESULTING IN
IFR/MVFR CIGS, MAINLY EASTERN TERMINALS. TO FURTHER EXACERBATE THE
SITUATION, MINOR IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARE
BRINGING WIDESPREAD, MARGINAL CHANCES OF MAINLY -SHRA INTO THE
REGION. LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCES
WILL BE KMAF/KHOB LATER MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO
CLEAR OUT W-E DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT MAY PERSIST IN THE EAST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 50 61 53 / 0 30 50 10
CARLSBAD 68 48 74 51 / 0 30 20 10
DRYDEN 60 50 63 54 / 20 50 30 10
FORT STOCKTON 62 49 72 52 / 10 40 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS 55 44 68 50 / 10 30 20 10
HOBBS 67 46 68 50 / 0 40 30 20
MARFA 59 41 70 45 / 30 30 40 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 69 50 63 54 / 0 40 30 10
ODESSA 68 50 64 54 / 0 40 30 10
WINK 68 49 70 53 / 0 40 20 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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