308
FXUS64 KMAF 262300
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT
WITH LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES, HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE NM AND THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVES
OUT OF THE TX PH. OTHER THAN THAT, EVERYONE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK. NBM RUNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING HIGHS AND LOWS BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM VALUES IN PREVIOUS RUNS, SO WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN THIS TREND AS OF NOW. THESE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES, PROVIDING
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN TO A MINIMUM AND
ALLOWING FOR MORE DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE. TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND OVER NORTHEAST PERMIAN
BASIN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH NOT RECORD BREAKING.
LOWS FALL INTO THE 70S AND ABOVE, 60S FOR MOST OF LEA COUNTY AND
SW TX SUNDAY NIGHT, AND 70S AND ABOVE ASIDE FROM 60S NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY AND MARFA PLATEAU INTO LOWER TRANS PECOS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP NEXT WEEK AND KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, MINIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING NEAR THE
SURFACE. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE MEANS RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NONE, OTHER THAN DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS
FROM HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN, MAINLY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 71 96 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 71 96 70 100 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN 70 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 69 96 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 68 88 67 92 / 0 10 10 20
HOBBS 69 94 68 97 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 61 91 62 92 / 0 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 71 94 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 71 94 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 73 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29
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