620
FXUS64 KMAF 041902
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.
- HIGH WINDS MAY IMPACT THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALSO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS TO
THE PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WE ARE SEEING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A MORE WESTERLY,
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. A FEW SPOTS ARE A LITTLE BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY OUT WEST, BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY. THICK HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TUESDAY. EFFICIENT MIXING WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO REACH
THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. WILL UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 70 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF SE NM WHERE GUSTS SHOULD SURPASS
50 MPH. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALLOW POSSIBLE THERE EVEN AFTER THE
RAIN LAST WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARES AS THE TROUGH'S JET LIES OVERHEAD,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO THE NEED FOR ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS
OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION LOOK TO BE BREEZY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SWEEP DOWN
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODELS SUGGEST IT MIXES OUT
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION. THUS, TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST
TO TOP OUT IN THE 80S FOR MOST, WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FINALLY PUSHES COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LARGELY DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S, ACCOMPANIED BY
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE PASSING WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES OVER THESE AREAS ARE
LOW (10-20%). OTHERWISE, HIGHS MAINLY REACH THE 70S THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD FRIDAY, AS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WARMING TO THE
80S. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY, BRINGING 90S
BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
DROP INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SENDING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KTS AT
KCNM BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 64 90 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 63 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 64 96 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 64 90 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 59 72 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 61 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 53 82 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 64 87 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 65 86 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 64 86 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR EASTERN
CULBERSON.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL LEA-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29
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