411
FXUS64 KMAF 111131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR MOST. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
TONIGHT AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. HOWEVER, WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
LOW (<5%) THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT SETTLE IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES RAMP BACK UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S FOR MOST.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERTURES KICK OFF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 90S FOR MOST, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. IN RESPONSE, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SOME
AND MOVES EAST, ALLOWING FOR A SHORTWAVE TO PASS OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS OVER/NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
AND PECOS COUNTY. HOWEVER, CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW (10% OR LESS) AT
THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
THANKS TO SURFACE TROUGHING. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
90S LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND, YIELDING LOW (10-15%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN ALL OF THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE QUALITY. LOWS EACH NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 60S FOR MOST EACH NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
MVFR CIGS OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CNM WHERE VFR SHOULD
REMAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10KTS SUSTAINED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 81 57 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 82 58 97 64 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 84 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 82 59 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 75 57 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 81 55 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 79 48 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 81 59 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 81 59 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 83 59 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93
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