824
FXUS64 KMAF 122321
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- LIGHT TO MODERATE (25% TO 45%) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WITH
RAIN, WINTRY MIX, AND SNOW FOR RIO GRANDE BASINS FROM TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FREEZING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK, DESPITE
OCCASIONAL WARMUPS AND COOLDOWNS.
- A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO END THE WEEK AND
BEGIN THE WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BIG
BEND INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ACROSS TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU.
TEMPERATURES IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING AREAS ARE IN
THE 30S AND A MIX TO EVEN SOME SNOW MAY BE OCCURRING AROUND OR
ABOVE 4500-5000 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL, BUT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY BE
LIQUID, BUT AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT, A CHANGE
OVER TO A MIX OR EVEN SNOW COULD OCCUR AGAIN. TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU, AS
WELL AS FOR PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SE NM. IN AREAS WHERE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURS, SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
WITH GENERALLY LESS CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, HIGHS ON TUESDAY MOVE INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR
MOST. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SETTLE INTO 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH 20S HANGING ON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE LARGE SCALE NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER AIR PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE AND CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY, WITH FREQUENT WEAK COLD FRONTS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO FAR ABOVE AVERAGE. DESPITE
NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY, HIGHS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING FROM THE CONTINUED CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS MEANS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SETTLING IN
THE 60S F, 50S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND LOW 70S F RIGHT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEES MORE UNIFORM DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S F AREAWIDE, MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AIDING DRAINAGE COOLING, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, RESULTING IN LOWS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER, COMING IN NEAR
FREEZING ALL THE WAY INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
F, UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS OVER SE NM AND BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
NONETHELESS STILL GIVES WAY TO LOWS SETTLING INTO THE 30S F, AND
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING USUAL COOLER SPOTS OF WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTHERN SE NM PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN.
COOLER HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S F THEN FOLLOW
TO CLOSE THE WEEK AND BEGIN THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR
TO BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BASINS INDICATED IN NBM
FORECAST GRIDS AS THE DRY NORTHWEST AIR PATTERN HOLDS.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT STAY
WITHIN SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH NO PRECIPITATION, NO
MIST/FOG, AND NO HIGH WINDS EXPECTED FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, A
QUIET WEEK AHEAD WEATHER-WISE SEEMS TO BE IN STORE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OF 8KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE AT KFST THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED -RA PREVAILING FOR THIS EVENING WHERE LIGHT
RAIN IS ONGOING AT KFST AND PROB30 -SHRA FROM 06Z TO 12Z WHERE
CHANCES CONTINUE, BUT THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY. AMENDMENTS TO THE
KFST TAF WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 33 62 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 28 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 40 60 39 68 / 50 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 39 60 36 63 / 60 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 33 53 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 27 63 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 28 55 26 58 / 60 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 35 60 37 63 / 10 0 0 0
ODESSA 35 60 37 63 / 10 0 0 0
WINK 31 60 32 64 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...55
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