167
FXUS64 KMAF 011344
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
844 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 843 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- A STORM SYSTEM RAISES CONCERNS FOR STRONG WINDS FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY, ALONG
WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN
US. THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SWING OVER NEW MEXICO BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER
DOWN TO JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY, BUT THE DRYLINE SERVES AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED BE ORIENTED NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE BIG BEND.
SUFFICIENT LIFT, INSTABILITY, AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER OUR
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST OVER SE NM, THE PERMIAN BASIN, AND THE LOWER TRAN PECOS
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST (~30%) CHANCES LIE OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. THIS EVENING, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO
RANGE FROM 10-50% ACROSS THE REGION, INCREASING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. CAMS SHOW ISOLATED STORMS EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A
LINE NEAR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES, THIS SYSTEM BRINGS BREEZY TO STRONG
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO OUR REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE GUADALUPE/DELAWARE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY,
WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SE NM PLAINS, WESTERN CULBERSON, AND LOVING
COUNTIES ARE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY. ELEVATED WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE HAVE PROMPTED A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS BY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY AS ANOTHER LEE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. MORE DETAILS ON THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 80S TO LOW 90S, THEN BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WARM INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS,
PULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY. AS THE
DRYLINE SHARPENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN, THESE
PULSES ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE POOLED IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS, YIELDING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, THE BEST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST, BUT 20-50%
CHANCES ARE MAINTAINED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE INSTABILITY DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
RUNS, MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE, WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. THUS, WHATEVER STORMS DO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE, POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. THIS PUSHES RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AND USHERS IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY TOP OUT IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S (WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (MAINLY IN THE 20-50% RANGE) PERSIST
FOR SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS AFTERNOON, WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE, BECOMING GUSTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT HOB AND CNM, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 843 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FUEL ERCS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE WEST OF THE DRYLINE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, CULBERSON COUNTY, MARFA PLATEAU, UPPER TRANS
PECOS, AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HAVE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. DUE TO DRY FUELS AND
STRONGER 20-FT WINDS THAN INITIALLY FORECAST, ALONG WITH MIN RH NEAR
CRITICAL 15% AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RFTIS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
4 TO 5 NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION RANGE AND
GENERATE RFW CONDITIONS FOR THESE REGIONS. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, THE GUADALUPE
AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS, THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS, AND GAINES COUNTY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
94
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 91 56 87 61 / 30 40 0 0
CARLSBAD 86 53 86 54 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 92 62 88 64 / 20 50 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 91 59 88 61 / 20 30 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 75 52 75 55 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 85 49 84 52 / 10 20 0 0
MARFA 83 47 80 46 / 10 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 89 57 86 62 / 20 30 0 0
ODESSA 88 57 85 62 / 20 30 0 0
WINK 88 54 87 57 / 10 20 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 10 PM CDT /9
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS
FOOTHILLS-EASTERN CULBERSON-GAINES-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-REEVES
COUNTY PLAINS-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN CULBERSON-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOVING-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CHAVES PLAINS-EDDY PLAINS-LEA-SACRAMENTO
FOOTHILLS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...95
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