159
FXUS64 KMAF 180802
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 302 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY,
BUT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND BRINGS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
TUESDAY-THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION OVER MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX REGION TODAY. DRY AND SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD STRONG OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE S/SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ADVANCING OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN STATES WILL TRANSLATE OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MEANWHILE STRETCH FROM FAR WEST TEXAS
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THESE FEATURES
SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR, GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (MOSTLY BETWEEN
20-40%) FOCUSED ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VAN
HORN TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK TO CARLSBAD TO NEAR
TATUM AFTER 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS
FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND HRRR MODELS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AND UP TO 100-105 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 60S TO MID
70S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE
ADJACENT ARKLATEX REGION. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE AND ALSO AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS, THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS, VAN HORN
CORRIDOR, MARFA PLATEAU, AND INTO THE TRANS PECOS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND INTO THE
BIG BEND, TRANS PECOS/STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND PORTIONS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD (40-70%)
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTH OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
MARFA PLATEAU, AND BIG BEND. A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.4-1.7 INCHES AND SLOW-MOVING
AND/OR TRAINING STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1-2" IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SPORADIC FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH DCAPE VALUES OVER
1000 J/KG AND THE MOIST AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN VERY LOCALIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORM
CELLS SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO REMAIN
VERY WARM WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS AND UP TO 100-105 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING ELEVATED BETWEEN 1.2-1.5 INCHES WILL BECOME ORIENTED
FROM THE BIG BEND/DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE PERMIAN BASIN, WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (POPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 20-50%) SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY TAKE SHAPE AS WE GO
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MAY BUILD BACK
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION UNDERNEATH
THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ADVANCE INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE NBM IS
AGGRESSIVE AS USUAL WITH POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT WOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS IF
THE BOUNDARY CAN STALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A TAP
OF RICH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST/WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED
FLOODING POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD TREND COOLER
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO TRENDING COOLER IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW READINGS IN THE 50S OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS, AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS IN LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CU FIELD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY EVERYWHERE BUT KHOB, W/BASES ~ 4.5-7 KFT AGL. CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INVOF KCNM, BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION ATTM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 97 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 40
CARLSBAD 96 70 96 67 / 10 30 50 40
DRYDEN 95 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 20
FORT STOCKTON 95 71 97 71 / 0 0 30 50
GUADALUPE PASS 88 66 86 65 / 10 30 50 50
HOBBS 93 69 94 67 / 0 10 40 50
MARFA 90 61 90 61 / 0 10 50 70
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 95 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 50
ODESSA 95 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 50
WINK 97 73 97 72 / 0 0 30 60
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99
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