525
FXUS64 KMAF 081847
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1247 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK
LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA DEL SUR, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE SENT SUBTLE SHORTWAVES UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, WHICH
WAS MUCH WELCOMED, EVEN IF MAX QPE WAS ONLY AROUND 0.10" OR SO. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED, AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAY IS ON TAP. DESPITE A FETCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUD STREAMING UP FROM
THE TROUGH, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
THICKNESSES, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT, MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA, BUT THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO DO MUCH EXCEPT COOL THE NORTHERN
ZONES A FEW DEGREES. THIS MORNING'S LOWS WERE WARM, AS A BLANKET OF
CLOUDS RETARDED RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TONIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR, IF
NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS MEANDERING NORTHEAST ONTO
THE COAST OF BAJA DEL SUR. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ADDING
MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO OVER THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS, TAKING MONDAY'S
HIGHS TO ~ 12-14 F ABOVE NORMAL, CONTINUING THE SPRING-LIKE TREND.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST, AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD CROSS THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO
WEST TEXAS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OUT.
MONDAY NIGHT, THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST AND NORTH,
TO THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY,
QPF LOOKS ABYSMAL. BY THAT TIME, THE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL
ONTO THE MAINLAND OF MEXICO. A 30 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP,
AND WILL COMBINE WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO
YIELD THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS FORECAST, AVERAGING A
PLEASANT 20 F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
RAIN CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GREET US AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SHALL OPEN UP
INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. AGAIN,
TODAY'S ENSEMBLES SHOW AN EVEN SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S. TUESDAY SEES A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY, WITH RAIN CHANCES BEING LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) AREAWIDE. BEST (60%) CHANCES WILL MAINLY LIE OVER
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEPART TO OUR EAST TUESDAY EVENING, BEING REPLACED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SIGNALING AN END TO OUR RAIN
CHANCES. RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN LIGHT, ANYWHERE BETWEEN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S WITHIN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES, WHILE LOW TO MID 70S PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY
NIGHT, A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG INTO OUR REGION. LOWS DIP INTO THE
40S FOR MOST, THEN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S (LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND BIG BEND) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
THURSDAY, SENDING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S,
WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS
RIVER VALLEYS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. HIGHS DROP BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MAINLY INTO THE 60S SATURDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALSO
LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME RAINFALL. WE'LL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS IN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 46 77 54 73 / 0 0 10 50
CARLSBAD 43 74 51 71 / 0 0 10 40
DRYDEN 52 79 57 73 / 0 0 10 50
FORT STOCKTON 51 77 57 74 / 0 0 20 60
GUADALUPE PASS 47 65 49 62 / 0 0 10 40
HOBBS 43 74 50 71 / 0 0 10 40
MARFA 41 71 44 65 / 0 10 30 60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 47 76 55 72 / 0 0 20 50
ODESSA 48 75 55 71 / 0 0 20 50
WINK 44 74 52 70 / 0 0 20 50
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...99
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