376
FXUS64 KMAF 211126
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS EXPECTED BEHIND AN
ARCTIC FRONT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN/ICE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION, TIMING/DURATION,
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES, AND ACCUMULATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS-PECOS.
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS
THIS MORNING, THOUGH AS OF RIGHT NOW NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED. IN ANY CASE, THESE LOW CLOUDS EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BY A VERY WEAK FRONT.
THIS FRONT DOES LITTLE MORE THAN SHIFT WINDS TO A
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, WE
ACTUALLY END UP A LITTLE BIT WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MOST OF
THE AREA TOPS OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S, WITH 60S NEARER TO/ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOWS SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WILL BE REALIZED THURSDAY
MORNING. UPPER 20S AND LOW-TO-MID 30S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO (BRIEFLY) GET A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED (LOW 70S IN PORTIONS
OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE). SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS WEEKEND'S ARCTIC FRONT AND
WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTING OUR FORECAST AREA
IS INCREASING. THERE REMAINS TO BE TWO MAJOR HAZARDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE FIRST BEING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES (MORE ON THAT IN
THE PARAGRAPH BELOW) AND THE OTHER BEING SIGNIFICANT ICE/SNOW
POTENTIAL (SEE THIRD AND FOURTH PARAGRAPHS FOR MORE DETAILS).
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS, TIMING/DURATION, AND LOCATION
REMAIN TO BE UNCERTAIN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEDIUM AND LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH THAN IN
RECENT RUNS, ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR AND MORE MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO
OUR REGION. MEANWHILE, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY.
HOWEVER, PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT MODELS MAY BE WRONG AS
THEY ARE OFTEN LATE ON THE TIMING OF THESE ARCTIC FRONTS. WITH THAT
SAID, IT IS STILL A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE ARCTIC AIR MAKES IT TO
OUR REGION BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. SHALL THIS OCCUR, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MAY BE SET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
DOWNWARD ON TEMPERATURES, WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
LASTING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND IN
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WITH THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE
SHOWING PWAT VALUES MAXED OUT IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WITH THAT SAID, OUR LATEST PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION (20-30%) BEGIN AROUND RUSH HOUR FRIDAY MORNING, AND
INCREASE TO 30-60% BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PROBABILITIES (60-90%) INCREASE EVEN MORE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES, PLACING OUR AREA IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION
OF THE JET AND PROVIDING STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AT
THIS TIME, FREEZING RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT ICING (0.10-0.25+")
CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN, PARTICULARLY FOR THE PERMIAN
BASIN, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS. GIVEN OUR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM EVENT AND WITH THE
COLLABORATION OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES/THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER,
WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FORM 6 AM CST/5 AM MST FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH NOON CST/11 AM MST FRIDAY.
AS STATED ABOVE, UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING/DURATION AND LOCATION
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES/AMOUNTS REMAIN IN QUESTION AS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, ARCTIC FRONT, AND MOISTURE RETURN QUALITY. SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER WARM NOSE ALOFT, INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF FREEZING RAIN/ICE, WHILE OTHERS SHOW A SHALLOWER WARM NOSE,
SUGGESTING MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF
THE WARM LAYER, THUS INFLUENCING PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS TIME,
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH THEN
TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. ENSEMBLES TEND TO AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN COLD.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICT HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, SIGNALING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THOUGH, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THERE IS MAJOR SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES. HOW QUICKLY WE WARM
UP WILL DEPEND IN PART ON HOW MUCH SNOW AND ICE ACTUALLY
ACCUMULATES. BE SURE TO KEEP CHECKING IN ON THE LATEST FORECAST AS
SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
GREENING
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LOW CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
EAST OF MAF AND FST. AN INCOMING FRONT BRINGS NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WHICH BRIEFLY BECOME BREEZY (GENERALLY 12-17
KTS) AT MAF, CNM, AND HOB. WINDS DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 56 28 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 54 29 65 38 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 66 35 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 55 33 70 45 / 0 0 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS 51 37 59 40 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 54 29 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 61 29 69 39 / 0 0 0 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 56 30 64 38 / 0 0 0 10
ODESSA 55 31 63 39 / 0 0 0 10
WINK 56 28 67 39 / 0 0 0 10
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ANDREWS-BORDEN-CRANE-DAWSON-EASTERN CULBERSON-
ECTOR-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-
GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-
MIDLAND-MITCHELL-PECOS-REAGAN-REEVES COUNTY PLAINS-SCURRY-
UPTON-WARD-WINKLER.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL LEA-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13
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