531  
FXUS64 KMAF 131908  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
208 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING  
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS DRIVEN BY SURFACE HEATING  
AND ELEVATION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT  
DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES ARE UP  
INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S ALREADY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE PEAK HEATING. TEMPS  
TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 70S WITH SOME 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE WE  
SEE THE HEAT RETURN TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA  
WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS  
SHOULD HELP SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGHS TOMORROW AS WELL AS  
BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM  
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A STORM OR TWO  
COULD BE STRONG BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWS TOMORROW  
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS NOT IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
HENNIG  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
THE LONG TERM STAYS IN A FAIRLY QUIET AND STAGNANT PATTERN AS WE  
MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH  
LIFTS AWAY INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH  
WEAK RIDGING RE-TAKING A HOLD OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE NEVER  
BECOMES VERY STRONG, HELPING TO LIMIT THE HEAT POTENTIAL SOME.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY STAY ROUGHLY THE  
SAME, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST WITH 100S FOUND ALONG  
AND NEAR THE PECOS/RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS. DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES  
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND THE MORE VULNERABLE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS, BUT THE PERMIAN BASIN LOOKS TO AVOID HEADLINE-WORTHY  
HEAT. IN FACT, THE FORECAST KEEPS KMAF'S HIGHS UNDER 100 THROUGH  
THE LONG TERM...SO WE'LL TAKE IT. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE WEAK  
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGING LIMITS STORM CHANCES TO THE CLASSIC  
SPOTS OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LONG-RANGE  
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/INVERTED  
TROUGH SNEAKING INTO TEXAS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS  
OCCURS, IT COULD BRING SOME WELCOME MOISTURE AND LESS HOT  
CONDITIONS.  
 
-MUNYAN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BIG SPRING 73 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0  
CARLSBAD 74 100 73 102 / 10 10 20 10  
DRYDEN 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT STOCKTON 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 10  
GUADALUPE PASS 73 94 71 95 / 10 20 30 10  
HOBBS 70 97 70 98 / 10 0 20 0  
MARFA 60 96 63 96 / 10 10 10 20  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0  
ODESSA 75 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0  
WINK 75 102 76 103 / 0 0 10 0  
 

 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL  
BREWSTER COUNTY-CHINATI MOUNTAINS-CHISOS BASIN-DAVIS  
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOOTHILLS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS  
ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS-LOWER  
BREWSTER COUNTY-MARFA PLATEAU-PRESIDIO VALLEY-VAN HORN AND  
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.  
 
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-  
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM....16  
AVIATION...10  
 
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