797
FXUS64 KMAF 051656
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1156 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SHOWERS ARE EXITING TERRELL COUNTY WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
BEEN FALLING ON AND OFF FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PART OF THE MORNING
WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS OVER THE COURSE OF
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, MOISTURE WILL NEED TO FILL IN,
THUS LIMITING RAIN AMOUNTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I- 10 WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH OUT OF THE
50S. TO THE NORTH AND EAST, HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO AROUND
70F.
FOR TONIGHT, LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY AIR ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT COOLING
AND MUCH OF THE AREA FALLS INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY EVEN DIP INTO
THE 30S. ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS DECAY DURING THE EVENING AND
RAIN CHANCES FALL BELOW 10% AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CLOUD COVER, MUCH OF THE AREA ENDS UP WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TUESDAY SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO COVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY, BUT AGAIN,
RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RIDGE, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE
FLOW AND MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION AND WITH THE
ADDED WARMTH, THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR STORMS. HOWEVER, THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL FIVE PLUS DAYS AWAY AND
DETAILS WILL BE BETTER PICKED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-STICKNEY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TUESDAY SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO COVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY, BUT AGAIN,
RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RIDGE, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES UNDERCUT THE
FLOW AND MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION AND WITH THE
ADDED WARMTH, THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR STORMS. HOWEVER, THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL FIVE PLUS DAYS AWAY AND
DETAILS WILL BE BETTER PICKED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
-STICKNEY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND MODEST EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TRANS PECOS
REGION BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT AVIATION OPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 69 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 69 42 68 48 / 10 10 0 30
DRYDEN 62 50 69 52 / 40 40 10 10
FORT STOCKTON 63 46 68 50 / 30 30 0 30
GUADALUPE PASS 56 41 60 46 / 40 10 0 30
HOBBS 69 37 69 45 / 0 10 0 10
MARFA 53 35 63 41 / 60 40 10 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 68 44 70 49 / 10 10 0 10
ODESSA 68 44 69 49 / 10 10 0 10
WINK 67 43 69 49 / 10 20 0 20
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10
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