639
FXUS64 KMAF 052329
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
- AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS LOW (10-40%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SET UP OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDS TOWARDS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER
OVER THE REGION TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME, WINDS HAVE BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THE INCREASED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, COUPLED WITH A GREATER
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO OUR WINDS, YIELDS TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S. HIGHS GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S TODAY, ASIDE FROM 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOWS TONIGHT END UP IN THE 30S FOR MOST (40S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE). THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW-
TO-MID 70S. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOW-TO-MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW-TO-MID 70S AGAIN (FOR REFERENCE, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 8-14 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY). BY SUNDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND BEGINS TO
MOVE EASTWARD. THIS DAMPENS THE RIDGE AND STARTS TO SHIFT IT TO THE
EAST AS WELL. AS A RESULT, HIGHS DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES DECREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES, BUT
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS STILL SUGGEST
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THE BRING LOW
(10-40%) RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXACT DETAILS REGARDING THE TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES. RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXTEND FROM THE
PRESIDIO VALLEY AND BIG BEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS. QUASI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S AND LOW-TO-
MID 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
SPRANG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 36 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 35 69 41 69 / 0 0 0 10
DRYDEN 38 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 38 72 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 38 62 46 64 / 0 0 0 10
HOBBS 36 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 30 70 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 38 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 38 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 32 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...21
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