025
FXUS64 KMAF 301123
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY,
MAINLY IN/AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACCOMPANY ANOTHER FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS TODAY MANAGE TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. LIKE YESTERDAY, WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS-PECOS BECOME BREEZY (15-25 MPH). SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. OF NOTE, SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION DID MANAGE TO DEVELOP YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THIS LENDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE TO ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING TODAY, MAINLY IN/AROUND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO (DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, STOCKTON, PLATEAU, ETC). GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION, RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW (10-20%) THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAY WARM (50S AND LOW 60S), THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES LIKEWISE REMAIN WARM, AND MOST LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
OUT WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH (MORE ON THAT IN
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION). OTHERWISE, ONCE AGAIN SOME EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE MAY INTERACT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS
AND STOCKTON PLATEAU (THOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS ATTEMPT
TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE PERMIAN BASIN AS WELL).
SPRANG
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT SHALL BE ZONAL
TUESDAY EVENING, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AS THE THROUGH
NEARS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE
STEERS WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, KEEPING TUESDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
GRADUALLY ENVELOP THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE JET
MAX APPROACHES. WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE/ DELAWARES ARE LIKELY TO
REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURROUNDING PLAINS MAY REACH NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THESE WINDS AID IN PUSHING HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. ASIDE FROM ELEVATED WINDS, LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ACCOMPANYING FRONT INTRODUCES RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHALL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH BEST ODDS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS.
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THE TROUGH'S FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
OUR REGION. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS LARGELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY THURSDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY TAPERING DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, ANOTHER ONE
BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN US, REACHING THE PLAINS BY LATE
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA COULD ALSO SEE THE RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN. LOW RAIN CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH LINGER OVERHEAD.
WARM TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS.
CUMULUS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER TODAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 88 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD 92 56 91 60 / 10 10 0 0
DRYDEN 87 60 91 62 / 10 0 20 10
FORT STOCKTON 92 62 92 62 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS 82 58 80 58 / 10 10 0 0
HOBBS 90 54 88 54 / 10 10 0 0
MARFA 85 48 84 50 / 20 10 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 88 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 88 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 91 58 93 58 / 10 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13
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