143
FXUS64 KMAF 302314
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- A COLD FRONT SATURDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A WARM-UP NEXT WEEK.
- THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN,
MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO ROCKIES, WITH ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE SINKING AND DRYING
MOTION RESULTING IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE THE WEEK. VIS/IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE ABSENCE OF
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ATTESTING TO THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
WHILE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO, MOST LOCATIONS TODAY LOOK
TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 95F-100F RANGE, 105F-110F RANGE
FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF PRESIDIO
COUNTY, THE MARFA PLATEAU, AND GUADALUPES, WHERE HEATING OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO RISE UP TO 95F. LOWS TONIGHT
SETTLE INTO THE 70F-75F RANGE, 65F-70F MARFA PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS AS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 55F-65F RANGE AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS MAINTAINING HUMID UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH LIMIT
OVERNIGHT COOLING.
TOMORROW, WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 100F-105F RANGE
FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, 95F-100F HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN, AND 105F-110F PRESIDIO VALLEY INTO BIG BEND. DUE TO
HEATING OF ELEVATED TERRAIN AND EXPANDED COVERAGE OF HEAT INDICES UP
TO 105F OVER THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL AGAIN BE
IN EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE
PRESIDIO COUNTY, MARFA PLATEAU, GUADALUPES, AND EDDY COUNTY. HEAT
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY, REMAINING IN AIR CONDITIONED BUILDINGS AND
POSTPONING ACTIVITIES IF POSSIBLE TO THE EARLY MORNING OR EVENING
HOURS, NOT LEAVING PEOPLE OR PETS INSIDE VEHICLES, STAYING OUT OF
DIRECT SUNLIGHT WHEN POSSIBLE, AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER ARE ALL
ENCOURAGED. WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING DOWN FROM THE FRONT RANGE
AND TX/OK PANHANDLES AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT FOCUSING MOISTURE AND
PROVIDING LIFT , POPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25% TO 35% RANGE.
HOWEVER, HIGH-RES CAMS INDICATE ISOLATE TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE
AND HIGHER STORM COVERAGE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER E
NM, SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OTHER THAN HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS,
HAIL, AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A FEW DEGREES AS THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THESE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THIS
WEEKEND. MORE DETAILS ON THAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE AHEAD AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US SATURDAY, SHOVING THE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT
US HOT AND DRY FURTHER TO OUR WEST. THE TROUGH USHERS IN A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY MORNING, OFFERING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS HIGHS
TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN ADDED BONUS WITH
THIS FRONT IS AN UPWARD TICK IN OUR RAIN CHANCES. SOME CONVECTION
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT MAY STILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND SE NM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGE BETWEEN 10-50%, WITH THE BEST ODDS GENERALLY OVER SE
NM. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LOW (<20%) RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COOL DOWN IS SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER RIDGING REGAINS DOMINANCE OVER
OUR WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT SETS BACK UP
WITHIN MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN, SE NM, AND UPPER TRANS PECOS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO LIE NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BIG BEND. MODELS SUGGEST
THE RIDGE EXPANDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE US AND BECOMES FLATTENED
BY A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF LOWER HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK LOOK TO MAINLY REACH THE UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY COOL INTO THE 60S IN/NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH 70S AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 75 102 74 97 / 0 0 10 20
CARLSBAD 74 104 74 97 / 0 0 20 30
DRYDEN 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 10
FORT STOCKTON 73 101 73 96 / 0 0 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS 70 97 70 89 / 0 10 20 30
HOBBS 71 101 70 94 / 0 0 30 50
MARFA 65 98 66 92 / 0 0 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 74 100 74 96 / 0 0 10 30
ODESSA 74 100 75 96 / 0 0 10 30
WINK 74 102 74 97 / 0 0 10 30
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR CHINATI
MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000
FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR CHINATI MOUNTAINS-DAVIS MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE MOUNTAINS.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93
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