791
FXUS64 KMAF 280521
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (25% TO 35%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE SE NM PLAINS INTO
PERMIAN BASIN. DAMAGING WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, PATCHY
BLOWING DUST, FLASH FLOODING, AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE
WHERE STORMS OCCUR.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
WEATHER, THEN SLIGHT COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES - BUT NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER THIS
WEEK - EXPECTED THROUGH END OF THE WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO CENTER CLOSER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS HIGHS
95F-100F, 85F-90F HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND 100F-100F ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER AND RIO GRANDE, 105F-110F FOR THE BIG BEND ARE
FORECAST. PLACEMENT OF CORE OF RIDGING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MEANS WE ARE AGAIN WITHIN THE EASTERN "RING OF FIRE". THIS
ENTAILS PERSISTENT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING
FOR DISTURBANCES FOCUSING MOISTURE AND LIFT ALOFT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND EASTERN STOCKTON PLATEAU EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. INTERACTION OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH BOTH NEAR
SURFACE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS AND HUMID,
UPSLOPE FLOW ADVECTING IN HIGHER PWATS AT LEAST 1.30" FAVOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FARTHER NORTH. HIGH-RES
CAMS INDICATE A MEDIUM (25% TO 35%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS RIVER,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN. DCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG
IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINTS TO A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN STRONGEST STORMS.
HOWEVER, SPC DOES NOT HAVE US IN A MRGL RISK, AND COVERAGE IN
HIGH-RES CAMS IS LESS THAN YESTERDAY, WHICH MAY MEAN LESS
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS FOR AS MUCH OF A WIND RISK AS YESTERDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER OR
MORE PROLONGED STORMS GIVEN PWATS. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
GIVEN DRIER MID-LEVELS. ISOLATED STORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN LATER TODAY FOLLOWING DAYTIME HEATING OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN. GENERAL STORM MOTION FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS, AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, ANY ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME
AFTER SUNSET. LOWS AGAIN FALL INTO THE 70F-75F RANGE, 65F-70F
RANGE FOR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND
60F-65F FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
TOMORROW, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA NORTHEAST OF THE
PECOS RIVER, AIDED BY CONTINUED WEST/NORTHWEST MIGRATION OF CORE
OF RIDGING PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PUSHES LOW TO MEDIUM (30% TO 40%) SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO THE GUADALUPES INTO DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
PRESIDIO VALLEY, AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND RIO GRANDE BASIN. WITH
PWATS CLOSE TO 1.20" ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT DCAPE STILL
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AMIDST VERY DRY MID-LEVELS AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALONG WITH MINIMAL SHEAR,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE STORMS ANCHORED TO HIGHER TERRAIN LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. WHILE NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS AND MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME APPARENT
CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK, MAIN RISKS WITH ANY STORMS AT THE
MOMENT APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. WITH CORE OF RIDGING FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA BUT LOWER STORM CHANCES NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS RIVER,
SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO TODAY ARE FORECAST, SLIGHTLY
WARMER NORTHEAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AND COOLER SOUTHWEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER. DRIER AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER WITH A RENEWED
WARMING TREND THEN LOOK TO BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MORE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
CORE OF MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL BE QUICK TO REDEVELOP EAST OVER
SE NM INTO W TX EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AND THEN FARTHER EAST OVER
CENTRAL TX LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL A
WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER WITH LOW
(LESS THAN 10%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS EARLIER THIS
WEEK, 100F-105F TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND NEAR THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY, OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS INTO STOCKTON PLATEAU, AND
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN RISING BACK
INTO THE 90F-95F RANGE. MAKE SURE TO TAKE PROPER HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS (LIMIT TIME SPENT OUTDOORS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF
THE DAY, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE IF OUTDOORS, DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER, AND DO NOT LEAVE PEOPLE OR PETS UNATTENDED IN
LOCKED VEHICLES). LOWS WILL NOT WARM AS MUCH EVEN WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE WINDS AND LLJ REPOSITIONING FARTHER EAST
OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU INTO PERMIAN BASIN. EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, RIDGING DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, PLACING US IN
THE SOUTHERN "RING OF FIRE" WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES COOLING VERY SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, THIS
FAR OUT SPECIFICS REMAIN MURKY, AND NO MAJOR COOLING TREND IS IN
SIGHT AS WE HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS AND
REMAINING SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 100 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 100 73 101 74 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN 101 75 100 75 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 98 73 99 73 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 91 70 92 70 / 20 0 0 0
HOBBS 97 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 92 62 92 62 / 30 0 10 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93
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