167
FXUS64 KMAF 202250
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- HAZARDOUS WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, FAR WEST TEXAS, AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO
NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE PREVALENT SATURDAY ACROSS
THE STOCKTON PLATEAU EXTENDING INTO THE BIG BEND.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE HAZARDOUS WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN, AND FAR WEST TEXAS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GUADALUPES WHICH INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS PUSHING INTO
THE EDDY/EASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IS ANOTHER HAZARD TO CONSIDER WITH
THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO BREEZY
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPS VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION,
THEREFORE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTS DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN, AND MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS AND BE SURE TO AVOID OUTDOOR
BURNING OF ANY KIND! BY EARLY EVENING, THE STRONG JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY THANKS TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. TONIGHT, LIGHTER
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED WITH TODAY'S TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST, BESIDES AREAS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE AND PRESIDIO VALLEY IN THE 70S. BREEZY
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH) ARE IN STORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S REGIONWIDE.
LAMBERSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY, KEEPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AREAWIDE. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ADVANCES
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND, THAT
LASTS THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WARM UP INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80 AND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST BY WEDNESDAY (90S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE) AS THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES.
THIS IS THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. WE WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE THE PREVIOUS
RECORD AT MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIR AND SPACE PORT (MAF) IS 86 F,
SET BACK IN 2009. BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WE WILL GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE WINDS SHOULD LOOK LIKE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED!
GREENING
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNDOWN. A PAC
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT,
RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING TO NORTH BY SUNUP SATURDAY. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
INCREASED WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FT WINDS BETWEEN 20-30MPH,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15%, UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND
DRY FUELS KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, UPPER TRANS PECOS, VAN HORN
CORRIDOR, AND SOUTH OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU. MINRHS
STAY AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OR BELOW (<15%) THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS WINDY THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS (THOUGH STILL A LITTLE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY). WITH THAT SAID, WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BIG SPRING 39 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD 35 60 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN 49 71 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON 43 64 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS 35 54 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS 35 59 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA 32 62 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 40 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA 41 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
WINK 38 62 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET-GUADALUPE AND DELAWARE
MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
CULBERSON.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GAINES-VAN HORN
AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EDDY COUNTY
PLAINS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL LEA-
NORTHERN LEA-SOUTHERN LEA.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99
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