516   
FXUS64 KMAF 310702  
AFDMAF  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
UPDATED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT  
  DROPS TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME   
  OF YEAR ON SATURDAY.   
  
- A WARMING TREND RETURNS SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
  EXPECTED EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL   
  CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM  
  
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
A RATHER MUNDANE FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF   
MEXICO, PUTTING WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY,   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  00Z KMAF RAOB CAME IN W/A PWAT OF JUST 0.36",   
OR ABOUT THE 15TH PERCENTILE.  W/THIS IN MIND, PRECIPITATION WILL   
REMAIN ELUSIVE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.  
  
TODAY, RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE EAST, WHEREAS WESTERLIES   
WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCREASING THICKNESSES AND   
ADDING A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO THE MIX.  THIS WILL COMBINE   
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO   
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S.  
  
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS SET TO INTRUDE UPON THE AREA OVERNIGHT,   
W/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS PEGGING FROPA AT KMAF AT AROUND 09Z   
SATURDAY.  THIS WONT ARRIVE IN TIME TO AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH   
SHOULD AVERAGE ~ 2-4 F ABOVE NORMAL.  
  
SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AND BRISK, WITH CAA TAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS   
DOWN TO 2-4 F BELOW NORMAL, KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S AND   
70S.   
  
  
   
LONG TERM  
  
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WEST  
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BETWEEN A  
LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES TO OUR EAST AND A BUILDING UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO OUR WEST. SURFACE HIGH   
PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE SHIFT EASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TO THE   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR  
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OUR REGION THROUGH THE   
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CHILLY  
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA BEFORE HIGHS ON SUNDAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO   
AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.   
  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS  
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY INCREASE ACROSS  
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TO  
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS  
THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED WARM  
AND DRY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK.   
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST   
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FEATURE   
QUICKLY WEAKENS BY THURSDAY MORNING, SO WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS   
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL  
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST   
PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE   
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025  
  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE  
LIGHT/VARIABLE, W/A HIGH CLOUD OR TWO.  
  
  
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
  
BIG SPRING               75  43  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   
CARLSBAD                 81  47  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   
DRYDEN                   76  49  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   
FORT STOCKTON            81  51  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   
GUADALUPE PASS           72  46  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   
HOBBS                    75  42  68  39 /   0   0   0   0   
MARFA                    77  43  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT     74  46  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   
ODESSA                   73  46  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   
WINK                     76  45  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   
  
  
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
SHORT TERM...44  
LONG TERM....21  
AVIATION...44  
 
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