374  
FXUS64 KMAF 102338  
AFDMAF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
638 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A TOUCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO  
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
- A WET AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE BEGINNING THIS  
WEEKEND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER BAJA  
DEL NORTE, AND EXTENDING ENE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. TO THE NORTH,  
A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES, CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN  
COLORADO DUE TO THIS FEATURE, W/CAMS DEVELOPING A LINE DOWN INTO  
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 00Z THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY GET INTO  
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A 40+KT LLJ IS SET TO  
RECUR OVERNIGHT, KEEPING MIXING IN PLAY AND NEGATING RADIATIONAL  
COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4-5 F ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE DIGS ESE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCREASING  
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE GUTTER....UP TO 2 STD DEVS BELOW  
NORMAL...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL  
BE PRESENT. FRIDAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY THIS FORECAST,  
BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE ~ 2-4 F ABOVE NORMAL, A TESTAMENT TO WHAT  
THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE IF THE SHORTWAVE WAS ABSENT AND THE RIDGE  
MORE PRONOUNCED.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER UNCOMFORTABLY WARM NIGHT, AS A  
SIMILAR LLJ TO TONIGHT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, LOWS MAY BE A DEGREE OR  
SO WARMER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION MAY PERSIST  
NORTHEAST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN AND  
WESTERN US THIS WEEKEND, WITH A TROUGH WEDGED IN BETWEEN OVER THE  
GREAT PLAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS DUE TO TROUGHING LOOKS TO BRING  
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
LONG TERM PERIOD. BEGINNING SATURDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP  
OUT IN THE 80S AND 90S. LOCATIONS NEAR AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE  
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH BEYOND THE CENTURY MARK SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTANT  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE GOOD NEWS  
KEEPS COMING IN THE FORM OF AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STEERS AMPLE MOISTURE IN OUR DIRECTION.  
THIS WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES  
ROLLING THROUGH TO PROVIDE ALMOST DAILY RAIN CHANCES. THE BEST  
SHOT AT RAIN LOOKS TO BE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, AS A DISTURBANCE SWINGS IN OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL TOTALS AND RATES, FLASH FLOODING COULD  
BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WITHIN THE COMING DAYS.  
NEVERTHELESS, WITH ANY LUCK, WE MAY CONTINUE TO CHIP AWAY AT OUR  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN  
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH GUSTS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND RETURNING  
FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
BIG SPRING 72 94 73 91 / 0 0 0 20  
CARLSBAD 71 99 71 91 / 10 10 10 30  
DRYDEN 72 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 10  
FORT STOCKTON 72 100 73 96 / 0 10 10 20  
GUADALUPE PASS 70 93 68 85 / 10 10 10 30  
HOBBS 69 94 69 89 / 10 10 10 30  
MARFA 64 93 65 89 / 0 30 30 50  
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT 72 95 73 91 / 0 0 10 20  
ODESSA 71 94 73 90 / 0 0 10 20  
WINK 72 99 73 93 / 0 10 10 20  
 
 
   
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...44  
LONG TERM....95  
AVIATION...93  
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