782
FXUS64 KOUN 301752
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- NEAR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MIDWEEK
THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS WARMED THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH 15-
20%), THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL FIRE CONCERN, HOWEVER
SOME ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
SHIFTING THE WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
30S CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY BRINGING EVEN WARMER AIR FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW/MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AGAIN LIMIT
FIRE CONCERNS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, A COUPLE OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
MIGHT SEE SOME VIRGA, BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANYTHING
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
OTHERWISE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THURSDAY MORNING AND STALL KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO PUSHING 70 DEGREES IN PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER.
THIS WILL AID IN PULLING THE STALLED OUT FRONT BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH NORTH WINDS AREA-WIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN, NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF A COOL DOWN WITH THIS FRONT AND WITH NO EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE
RED RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IN ITS WAKE
FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NOT MUCH AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS LIKELY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIM TO NONE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS BY SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE WIND WILL
BE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 32 60 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 28 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 25 62 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 26 57 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 33 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06
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