030
FXUS64 KOUN 281835
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN REMAINS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK; MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHILE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SPLENDID SENSIBLE
CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS DEVELOPING AT THIS HOUR.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE MONTH, OUR AREA
SITS DOWNSTREAM OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG (1038 MB) AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AFTER A
COOL START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING TOWARDS SEASONABLE
READINGS (60S) BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. COOLEST CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY
EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY, WHERE ONGOING MID
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT THIS MORNING, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH IMPINGED ACROSS THE AREA. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
TO OVERSPREAD THE ROCKIES, AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS, BREEZIER
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE RETURNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNSET.
WITH THE STATE OF VEGETATION NOT GETTING ANY BETTER (I.E., DRYING)
ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR
AND JUST BELOW 15% INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN INITIATED
THROUGH 7 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.
WITH A BREEZY SOUTH WIND CONTINUING PAST SUNSET HERE, THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE TEMPORALLY CONTROLLED BY IMPROVING HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS INTO THE MID-EVENING, AS WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADS
NORTHWARD.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER RISK DOESN'T LOOK TO ABATE ANYTIME SOON, WITH
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM
SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEK, WITH ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY WARM
LOW-LEVEL/DOWNSLOPED AIRMASSES DURING THIS TIME. PEAK
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RUN +20-30 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY/SATURDAY, WITH 90S LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST.
CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN WARMER INTO MONDAY, WITH THE PROFILE OF 90S
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
GUSTY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF
PERIOD, AS STRONGER/MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET FEATURES MIGRATE
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE BY MONDAY, WHEN RATHER
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT GUSTS NEAR AND ABOVE 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, INCREASINGLY STRONG
WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION WILL YIELD
CONTINUATION OF RATHER WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. NEAR-
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA & WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH FIRE RISK) CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS MORE OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE SEVERE RISK IS STILL
MUTED SOMEWHAT AT THIS RANGE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE
INSTABILITY, MODEST UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD
BASES, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME HAIL. FOR NOW, THE BENEFIT OF RECEIVING RAINFALL APPEARS
GREATER THAN THE SEVERE RISK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE PROBABILITY OF
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW (<20%)
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (40-50%) FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-35.
THE DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURNING DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LOW CLOUDS (VFR CEILINGS) ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE THIS
EVENING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY AT WWR.
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 81 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 44 84 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 44 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 80 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 79 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-015.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06
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