139
FXUS64 KOUN 250645
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GUSTY WIND AND
SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
TODAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR WEATHER AS YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER EASTERN TEXAS
TODAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CIRCULATION. WEAK SOUTH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AND GIVE WAY TO AN UNCAPPED AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WEAK (<25 KNOTS), SO
UPDRAFT LIFESPANS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AND/OR PULSE UP AND DOWN. A
STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THESE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL SWING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT TO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE VACATING UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER TEXAS.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW AND BRING INCREASING LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL HELP TO DRIVE ONGOING STORMS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WHERE SOME OF THE UPDRAFTS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AS STORMS PUSH EASTWARD, THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LOWER BUT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS. SOME STRONG
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND ONGOING RAIN/STORMS, TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, THERE MAY BE BRIEF RIDGING THAT COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL DECREASE/LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
EJECTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE LOW OVER BAJA CALI THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
A RETURN TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. THUS, SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MAY
ONCE AGAIN RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK MONDAY MORNING AND MAY IMPACT KDUA, BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF BY MID MORNING. A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10% AT ANY ONE LOCATION AND WERE NOT INCLUDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 63 83 64 / 10 10 20 60
HOBART OK 87 62 83 62 / 0 0 30 90
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 63 84 63 / 20 10 30 90
GAGE OK 88 60 83 59 / 0 0 30 70
PONCA CITY OK 85 61 83 63 / 0 0 20 10
DURANT OK 85 66 84 67 / 20 10 20 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page