172
FXUS64 KOUN 101829
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
129 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY; DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- HOT & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES NEAR AND ABOVE 100-105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO HUMID CONDITIONS AS
WELL THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA WITH VALUES
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE
HEAT ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S SO NOT A HUGE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. OCCASIONALLY HAVE SEEN AN
ISOLATED GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK
THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN,
AND CENTRAL OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THIS RISK IS
CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP. MANY MODELS SHOW THE FA
REMAINING DRY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH STORMS REMAINING N IN KS AND W
TO SW OF THE AREA IN WEST TX/TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW
CAMS THAT SHOW SOME STORMS DEVELOP/MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM KS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND/OR STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
DRYLINE IN PARTS OF NW OK, IF THE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE
FA. IF THESE STORMS DO OCCUR, THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION (CAPE 2500-3500
J/KG). DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP. ANY STORM POTENTIAL/SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AND ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY(IES)
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA THURSDAY BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT
OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN KS.
MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
AND LLJ STRENGTHENS THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
SEVERE STORMS.
PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A >60% CHANCE OF VALUES HIGHER THAN 1.75". WITH THESE PWATS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE THE HOT (HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
LOW 100S) AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH 105+ VALUES POSSIBLE. NORTH OF
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S). WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN/CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY CAUSING ISSUES
ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY THAT LOCATIONS STILL SEE
THE IMPACTS OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR PARTS OF THE FA SEEMS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY.
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND RAIN/CLOUD
COVER OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MATURE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF
RAIN AND STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME STRONG-SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
RISK IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH NO PARTICULAR PERIOD
STANDS ABOVE THE REST AT THIS POINT.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY (PRIOR TO THE FRONT), BEFORE A MORE
PROLONGED AND NOTABLE "COOLDOWN" - LOW TO MID-80S HIGHS - ARRIVES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO KDUA TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 98 69 87 / 10 40 80 40
HOBART OK 77 98 69 91 / 20 30 60 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 99 73 92 / 10 10 60 50
GAGE OK 79 92 64 90 / 20 0 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 80 95 66 85 / 20 30 20 20
DURANT OK 79 94 76 90 / 0 0 70 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>015-017>020.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13
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