368
FXUS64 KOUN 261121
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
621 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, GUSTS TO 70 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE WEEK BEYOND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A POSITIVELY-TILTED STATIONARY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
RECENT CONVECTION, ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROG'D TO BE NEAR
CHILDRESS BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG INSTABILITY (HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND ERODING MLCIN
WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL, WESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS.
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE TO AROUND QUARTER-
SIZED. HIGHER DOWNDRAFT CAPE (UP TO 1500 J/KG OR SO) ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK,
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT WHICH COULD RESULT IN
EFFICIENT RAINFALL, AS WELL. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LIMITED MAINLY TO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM A LINE NEAR AND WEST
OF BLACKWELL TO PERRY GIVEN 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF NEAR 7.5 INCHES
AT THE BLACKWELL MESONET SITE.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT ANOTHER WAVE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS AND REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS UPPER
FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT ARE NONEXISTENT BY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, SUMMERTIME
HEAT IS EXPECTED.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90'S TO LOW 100'S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH WARMER VALUES EXPECTED
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO MID-WEEK. LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
COULD LINGER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TERMINALS KSPS & KDUA COULD SEE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 16Z
AS OUR OVERNIGHT MCS WILL CONTINUE WINDING DOWN. STRATUS COMING
OFF THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS COULD LOWER CEILINGS TO AN
MVFR CATEGORY AT TERMINAL KWWR BETWEEN 12-20Z. OTHERWISE OUR
REMAINING TERMINALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A 20-30% PROBABILITY
THAT LATE AFTERNOON HEATING COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
21-06Z WHICH COULD IMPACT SIX OF OUR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS TX. AFTER 06Z COULD SEE
ANOTHER MCS COMING OFF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IMPACTING OUR
TERMINALS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING CEILINGS WITH MOST
STORMS TO BE HIGHER-BASED BUT COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN SHOULD THESE STORM CELLS MOVE ACROSS ANY OF
OUR TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT & VARIABLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR
TERMINALS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25
KTS BY 16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KTS AND BACK
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST BY 01Z. A 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 04-06Z WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS IMPACTING SOME OF OUR
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 76 95 78 / 20 30 20 0
HOBART OK 97 76 100 78 / 20 40 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 77 99 77 / 20 20 0 0
GAGE OK 89 71 102 80 / 20 40 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 88 73 92 79 / 20 40 20 0
DURANT OK 92 78 94 77 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68
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