611
FXUS64 KOUN 021744
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- HEATING TREND ON FRIDAY PEAKING SATURDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES RETURNING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
BROADER LOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF PERSISTENT WEATHER. HOT, BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO,
ESPECIALLY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE AREA
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER (GENERALLY, BREEZY NORTHWEST
OF I-44). MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE WBGT VALUES REACH INTO THE HIGH RISK CATEGORY, DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF HIGHER HEAT INDICES (AROUND 105) AND LIGHT WINDS.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL GIVE US A SHOT AT A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THESE WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. A SECONDARY WILL BE SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA / NORTH TEXAS UNDER THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. WHILE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED (LITTLE TO NO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR), STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORM
THAT CAN GET TALL ENOUGH ESPECIALLY WITH THE WESTERN STORMS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THESE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
LOWS CAN ESPECIALLY AFFECT THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING
AS THEY OFFER LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RECOVERY FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER (DOTTED WITH A FEW AREAS OF LOW CHANCE POPS) FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
FRIDAY'S HEAT WILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY'S WITH THE HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES AND WBGT'S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL
PROVIDE SOME SHADE ACROSS THE AREA, AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL GET THE ADDED BONUS OF A BREEZE. ALSO LIKE THURSDAY,
FRIDAY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN.
SATURDAY THE HEAT NUDGES UPWARD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND OUR MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST.
SEVERAL AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL OK, SOUTHEAST OK, AND ALONG
THE RED RIVER) WILL SEE HEAT INDICES REACHING INTO THE 105 TO 110
RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER, RESULTING IN HIGHER WBGT'S
(FORECASTING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH RISK WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXTREME).
HEAT INDICES SHOULD START FALLING BELOW 100 AROUND 7-8PM.
RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CUT-OFF OUR SOUTHEAST RAIN CHANCES, BUT A
FRONT IS SET TO APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL YIELD A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY
EVENING (POTENTIALLY STARTING AROUND 6-8PM) AND OVERNIGHT.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
STORM CHANCES INCREASE SOUTH OF I-40 BY DAYLIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN HANDLING
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT THROUGH ON MONDAY AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WASHES IT OUT ON THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINES WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW/WINDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OUR UPPER AIR PATTERN STARTS
BECOMING MORE CHAOTIC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTING THE MAIN JET
STREAM FLOW FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA THEN BREAKS DOWN INTO
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM CHANCES
EVERY DAY BUT WOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED WHERE SOME OF OUR AREAS
COULD SEE RAIN WHILE OTHERS WON'T. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MEANING NORMAL HOT & MUGGY BUT NO WIDESPREAD
EXCESSIVE HEATING. HOWEVER STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST SO HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
EXCESSIVE IN THAT AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A MIX OF (SCATTERED) CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD
PROB30 MENTIONS AT KWWR & KCSM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHERE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS NOW ANTICIPATED. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS MOVE NEAR THESE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DISPARATE AREA OF STORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/KDUA THROUGH SUNSET.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 93 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 96 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 94 71 99 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 73 92 73 95 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 73 90 74 93 / 0 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09
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