358
FXUS64 KOUN 041135
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 557 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO A PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAKNESS ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SHOWER COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME CLOUD COVER LINGER A BIT
LONGER. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AREA WIDE, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S DEG F FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND NORTHERLY WINDS, MONDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S DEG F
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S DEG F. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S DEG F (WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER).
BY TUESDAY, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND THE
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN BIAS-CORRECTED
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS LOW, WHICH INDICATES HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S DEG F WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
AROUND 90 DEG F (MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS).
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS BY ACROSS TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD
KEEP ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
AREAS OF BROKEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD WITH A FEW AREAS
OF LOCALIZED FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME IMPACT ON OUR TERMINALS. NOT EXPECTING ANY CEILINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH SHOULD FOG DEVELOP TERMINALS
KPNC, KSWO, AND KWWR COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE TO A MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH 15Z. LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA COULD REDUCE TERMINALS KOKC, KOUN, AND KLAW TO A MVFR
CATEGORY THROUGH 15Z. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINAL KCSM IN WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD REDUCE THAT TERMINAL
DOWN TO A LIFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z. RAIN SHOWERS WITH
VERY LOW CEILINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER MAY ALSO REDUCE TERMINALS
KSPS & KDUA TO PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CATEGORIES AT LEAST THROUGH
16Z. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING TERMINAL KSPS TO IMPROVE TO A VFR CATEGORY
BY 18Z BUT EXPECTING TERMINAL KDUA TO VARY BETWEEN A MVFR TO AS
LOW AS A LIFR CATEGORY UP THROUGH 23Z. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IN A
VFR CATEGORY AFTER 00Z (WITH MANY BEFORE) UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME, THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING
TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT & VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 84 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 58 84 56 / 40 0 0 0
GAGE OK 80 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 85 60 86 55 / 60 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68
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