973  
FXUS64 KOUN 021857  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
157 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 155 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
- CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING  
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  
 
- WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE  
80S TO MID 90S.  
 
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A PAIR OF MCVS (MESOSCALE  
CONVECTIVE VORTICES) THIS AFTERNOON. ONE MCV IS SLOWLY MOVING  
SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS  
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MCV IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA. AN MCV ESSENTIALLY BEHAVES LIKE AN UPPER-LEVEL (JUST  
SMALLER-SCALE) THAT PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WE'LL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE AREA.  
 
THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-  
GROUND LIGHTNING. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  
 
MAHALE  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL  
RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
THE EXPANDED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE, RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS,  
AND MORE SUNSHINE/SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES RANGING FROM THE MID  
80S TO MID 90S DEG F.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY  
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH THE FRONT. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DECREASE NEAR OR  
JUST AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST AND LIMITED COLD  
AIR ADVECTION, NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  
AS A MATTER OF FACT, SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO  
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE HOTTER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A  
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY  
OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.  
 
MAHALE  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS A  
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES COULD  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, A FAIRLY DECENT  
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID 70S ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE  
RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL  
ONCE AGAIN BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND  
80S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025  
 
MOSTLY VFR AT THIS POINT, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 2,000 AND  
3,000 FEET ARE STILL NOTED AT SPOTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THOSE CEILINGS TO GENERALLY GET ABOVE 3,000 FEET  
AS CLOUD COVER THINS AND LIFTS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE SHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH  
NIGHTFALL. FOG CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOWER TOMORROW THAN TODAY WITH  
LESS MOISTURE DEPTH, BUT ADDED MENTIONS FOR RADIATION FOG TO TAFS  
NEAR I-35.  
 
MEISTER  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 84 64 85 / 0 0 20 0  
HOBART OK 59 92 63 92 / 0 0 20 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 89 66 94 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 57 92 58 87 / 0 10 20 0  
PONCA CITY OK 59 87 60 83 / 0 0 20 0  
DURANT OK 66 86 65 92 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...10  
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM....25  
AVIATION...04  
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