082
FXUS64 KOUN 071831
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND REINFORCE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS PRODUCED FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN KS,
WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OK. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN OK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ON ITS WESTERN FLANK ACROSS WESTERN OK DURING PEAK HEATING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK, BUT EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES AND MAINTAINING TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK BUT THE REST OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. HEAT INDICES OVER 105 ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN EFFECT
IN THESE AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE SIMILAR
ON SUNDAY, THOUGH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SURFACE MOISTURE MAY KNOCK
A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HEAT INDICES IN SOME AREAS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
RIDGING WILL KEEP US HOT AND DRY THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME MODEST POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA MOST DAYS. AS WE ENTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD, THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS RANGE.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITH THE STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT SOME SITES TO CURRENTLY
MENTION IN TAF. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG,
VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S AND SW THIS
AFTERNOON BACKING TO THE S AND SE THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME
BIGGER SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 100 75 100 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 73 103 75 103 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 103 75 102 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 102 74 103 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 100 76 101 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 99 75 99 / 20 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ006>008-
011>013-017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ018>020-023>032-
035>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-
090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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