361
FXUS64 KOUN 201122
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A CONTINUING WARMING TREND.
- SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NORTH OK THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH BASED ECHOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OK INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER, SOME OF THE ACTIVITY DOES LOOK ROBUST ENOUGH THAT MORE OF
IT COULD REACH THE GROUND IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY AS
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIKE NOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE GROUND (VIRGA) OR IF IT DOES MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND IT WILL BE AS SPRINKLES BUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AT
OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. THE FORECAST
HIGHS ARE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING CONTINUING THE LOW CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AND/OR A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK. HOWEVER, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END
LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME MORE RAIN AND MAYBE SOME STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH (3+
INCHES) AS WHAT OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF RAIN
EVENTS BUT SOME LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA,
MIGHT SEE AS MUCH AS AN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHEN/WHERE
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNTS
SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS COME TOGETHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
OCTOBER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WITH MAYBE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OK,
BUT CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FT AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND. CAN'T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO AS WELL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, BUT CHANCES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH, GUSTIER AT
TIMES TODAY ACROSS WESTERN OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 54 75 55 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 73 55 78 56 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 55 80 56 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 73 52 80 55 / 10 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 52 75 54 / 10 20 20 0
DURANT OK 78 51 79 52 / 0 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
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