250  
FXUS64 KOUN 270351  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
951 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021  
 
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND  
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL  
FOSTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME  
HEATING LATER IN THE MORNING WILL HELP TO MIX THE FOG OUT BY LATE  
MORNING.  
 
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS  
FORECASTED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TOMORROW  
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITIES BELOW 20%, COULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS FAR  
NORTHWEST OK. FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK, THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
RANGING FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE EVENING. PERSISTENT  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THESE AREAS, COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES  
UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG, COULD ALLOW FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS  
TOMORROW EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL. AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE  
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A COLD FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST OK.  
 
BUNKER  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD  
SATURDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) IS PROGGED TO  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF  
~50 KNOTS, A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY  
LAYER, HAIL WILL BE THE HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE CORES.  
 
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY VEER, SO CONVECTION SHOULD  
QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA  
AND ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE  
SOUTHWARD, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS  
ALSO A CHANCE SOME FOG MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE  
FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  
 
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT AND MOVE  
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, INSENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL  
ZONE MAY RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, A NOTICEABLY  
COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 50S DEG F. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
CLOSED-LOW AS IT EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS ARE MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER WHILE  
OTHERS ARE MORE CLOSED/SLOWER/STRONGER. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN LOW  
TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN. ONE ISSUE IS BECAUSE OF THE  
INCREASED SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS (I.E., DRIER SOLUTIONS), THE  
DETERMINISTIC NBM IS COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.  
OPTED TO TRENDED WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES THAN NBM. HOWEVER,  
THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN WITH THE  
WARMER SOLUTION. THEREFORE, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE PROFILE IS FOR  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION, OPTED TO MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW  
ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS  
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES EVEN FURTHER BY THE LATTER PART OF  
THE WEEK WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHEN THE NEXT UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT  
INDICATIONS ARE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW,  
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH DAYS GIVEN THE  
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE-AVERAGE (60S  
DEG F) DURING THE PERIOD.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021  
 
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS  
IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN  
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN PART OF OKLAHOMA.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 38 66 41 / 0 0 20 10  
HOBART OK 57 36 70 39 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 42 68 45 / 0 0 20 10  
GAGE OK 61 31 71 30 / 0 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 53 32 67 38 / 0 0 0 10  
DURANT OK 56 43 66 52 / 20 0 60 40  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...13  
LONG TERM....10  
AVIATION...09  
 
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