134
FXUS64 KOUN 041710
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HOT AND HUMID FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL CREATE A RISK FOR
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100 TO 109 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA FROM NOON TO 8PM. CONDITIONS ARE
ALIGNING FOR A HIGH HEAT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WHICH KEEPS THE MAIN MESSAGE AS HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TIME SPENT OUTDOORS.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH INCREASED STORM CHANCES. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT ACROSS VARIOUS 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER,
STORMS APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH COULD POSE A
RISK FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MAY LEAD
TO UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BECOME DAMAGING WINDS, BUT
HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
FRONT, THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS IN WEST TEXAS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING MORE STORM
CHANCES THROUGH SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
TIMING, COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN STORE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S VERSUS THE
UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE IN THE 90S. CHANCES REMAIN LOW
FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY, BUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN TO OUR WEST WITH HEAT REMAINING
THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH COULD LEAD TO DAILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS TYPE OF
SETUP TYPICALLY FAVORS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS
STORMS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FARTHER SOUTH PAST SUNSET WITH
LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT MOST SITES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK WITH
VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH
WINDS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
PREVAILING SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 93 71 94 / 60 20 20 10
HOBART OK 74 96 71 96 / 20 10 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 100 73 98 / 10 20 20 10
GAGE OK 69 93 67 95 / 30 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 88 70 90 / 70 40 10 0
DURANT OK 77 95 75 94 / 20 20 40 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
017>020-024>032-039>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
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