624
FXUS64 KOUN 091835
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- HEAT TRIES TO REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON (FROM ROUGHLY 2-4 PM). TEMPERATURES WON'T BE IMPACTED BY
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID, DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 F
POSSIBLE. ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT OKC. A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM - 7 PM THIS
EVENING. WHAT THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST INITIALLY, ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE JUXTAPOSITION BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TIMING AND PEAK HEATING, WITH ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT WE MAY SEE
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN TO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS, IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THESE
AREAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEY WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER AIR ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TOMORROW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASED CONFIDENCE (60-80%)
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT (NORTH OF I-40) WILL NOT
EXCEED 90 F IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WILL SEE
SOME RELIEF OF THE HEAT (DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER), BUT WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF
STORMS COULD HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH EARLIER IN THE
DAY. BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON FRIDAY, AND MOST (IF NOT ALL OF US)
WILL SEE HIGHS GET BACK INTO THE 90S. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
NEARBY SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOT OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S APPEAR
LIKELY WITH SOME RISK OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS (PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY).
BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH, WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST
LOW POPS, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY IN DEPICTING AN MCS
SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH ITS CURRENTLY FORECAST TRAJECTORY WOULD
MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES NOW
EXTENDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS, CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF
DRAMATICALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT SOMETIME
EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS VARY GREATLY IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. CONTINUED HOT AND DRY WEATHER REMAINS THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO (70-80%), THOUGH THE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS WOULD
BRING SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z
WITH TERMINALS KPNC, KSWO, AND KWWR POTENTIALLY REDUCING TO AN
MVFR CATEGORY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FURTHER
LOWERING OF CEILINGS. A 30% PROBABILITY OF THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL START AROUND 09Z IN CENTRAL THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WITH POTENTIALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOKC, KOUN, AND KCSM
AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND TERMINAL KSPS BY 15Z. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH STORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD MAKE WINDS GUSTY AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. TERMINAL KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE OUR ONLY
TERMINAL STAYING DRY AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 88 69 93 / 30 80 50 30
HOBART OK 76 94 70 99 / 20 60 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 99 73 101 / 0 80 20 10
GAGE OK 69 87 65 97 / 60 70 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 82 66 90 / 80 90 30 20
DURANT OK 76 99 74 98 / 0 60 30 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
015>020-022>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68
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