983
FXUS64 KOUN 062207
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 404 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY
EAST OF I-35.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA & WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE
RETURNING TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL RETURNS NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
ASCENT IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
& STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK AS THEY
START BECOMING MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVING IN.
IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON FROM A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS STRETCHED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO ROCKIES PUSHING A SURFACE LOW WITH COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN
KANSAS. ALSO DOWN AT THE SURFACE IS AN ADVANCING DRYLINE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OK & TX PANHANDLES. OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN
THE MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED AIR WELL EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO
INITIATE SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON
ENHANCED BY A PERSISTING STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WITH ITS MAXIMA
CENTERED OVER ALL OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED-BASED
STORMS COULD GO SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY/MUCAPE VALUES IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ALSO
CAN'T RULE OUT SURFACE-BASED STORMS FIRING UP BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY AS STRONG MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BREAK
A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SEVERE RISK AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST TORNADO RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO
SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO BE PUNCHING INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY
MID-AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY OVERTAKEN LATER TONIGHT BY THE COLD FRONT
STARTING ITS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECTING THE DRYLINE TO ADVANCE INTO WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE RISKS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DRYLINE, WITH FIRE WEATHER TO THE
WEST AND SEVERE CONVECTION TO THE EAST. GUSTY SOUTH SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERN WINDS AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES BEHIND THE
DRYLINE WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER UP TO A CRITICAL RISK DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED VERY LITTLE TO
NO PRIOR RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT. ANY CLUSTER OF STORMS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MORE LINER ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE MAKING ITS PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA.
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL MAKE ITS FINAL ROUND ALONG THE COLD ACROSS
MOST OF OUR AREA KEEPING THE SEVERE RISK ALONG IT THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL HAZARD FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE IN PLACE. THE
COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START SURGING INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE 30S TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
BY SUNRISE SATURDAY EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHING THROUGH
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH THE SEVERE RISK ENDING THERE. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING WITH
IT'S UPPER LOW CLOSING AND CUTTING OFF FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET FLOW
RETROGRADING TO THE PACIFIC OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA & THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID-LEVELS
PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS TEXAS COULD
PASS OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING IT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. AS
A RESULT WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED RAIN AND/OR WEAK
CONVECTION STAYING BELOW SEVERE. OTHERWISE COOLER WITH MORE
SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETTING UP WITH WIDESPREAD 30S LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
RETURNING SUNDAY AND UNSEASONABLY WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S. THE RETURN OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
(INITIALLY AROUND THE RED RIVER VALLEY) AS A CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES PEAK
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY INCLUDING A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. DETAILS ON
TIMING, AREAS, AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO MAKE SURE
TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD, ALLOWING PRECIP
CHANCES TO DECREASE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MAINLY VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK AND NORTH TX ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY
ALONG THE RED RIVER (MAINLY KDUA AND KSPS). STRONG, VARIABLE WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N AND NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 59 37 71 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 39 61 34 72 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 64 39 72 / 20 40 10 0
GAGE OK 32 59 32 75 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 59 33 71 / 40 0 0 0
DURANT OK 52 67 43 71 / 70 60 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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