511
FXUS64 KOUN 201723
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES AND RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
CONVECTION PERSISTS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
WILL LIKELY BE DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS PERSISTING WILL BE IN THE
NORTH CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT.
STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THAT MISS OUT ON SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AGAIN WITH
PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND
REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO
BE MARGINAL WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF 6 KM SHEAR NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE OF INDIVIDUAL
STORMS.
THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL BE KEEP HIGHS IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND HEAT INDEX
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
STORMS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT SPREADING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BUT THEN DECREASE LATE
THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS WITH POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MANY OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP INTO A STORM COMPLEX
THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, SO WILL ALSO HAVE POPS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA STILL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH THE
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN A LITTLE LATER. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR STORMS SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE LONE STAR STATE, THERE WILL BE
SOME STORM POTENTIAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. BUT THEN STORM CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
WEST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS MOVING IN OFF THE HIGH PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM TEXAS TOWARD THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID WEEK, THE RIDGE IS WEAKER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY AND WE STILL HAVE THE MORE SEASONABLE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACHING IN
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE WAVES WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN AT THE SURFACE
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BETWEEN 18-10Z
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WITH TEMPO GROUPS ENDING BY 04Z.
HOWEVER WILL END STORM CHANCES EARLIER BY 22Z ACROSS TERMINALS
KSWO & KPNC IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING HIGH-BASED CEILINGS
WITH ANY STORMS ALTHOUGH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF BELOW VFR CATEGORIES AS WELL AS VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW. AFTER 04Z COULD SEE BROKEN
STRATUS PRODUCING LOW CEILINGS COMING DOWN FROM KANSAS RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CATEGORIES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 84 63 82 / 50 20 0 10
HOBART OK 67 88 64 86 / 30 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 91 65 89 / 40 20 30 10
GAGE OK 61 83 59 80 / 20 40 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 63 82 59 78 / 50 10 0 0
DURANT OK 70 95 68 92 / 50 30 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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