875
FXUS64 KOUN 051738
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. DESPITE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW, SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE UPDRAFTS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BE FAIRLY STEEP >8 DEG C/KM WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
ANY INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES THAT ARE SCHEDULED OR WERE MOVED TO
TODAY WILL NEED TO BE ON ALERT FOR BOTH HEAT AND LIGHTNING/DAMAGING
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING ARKANSAS MONDAY WILL KEEP OKLAHOMA UNDER MOSTLY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 90S WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD NOT SUPPORT LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS, BUT A
STRONG ENOUGH STORM FOR SMALL HAIL AND DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN BY TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND BRINGING
HEIGHT RISES. DESPITE DIURNAL CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT
WEST, THE RIDGE SPREADING EASTWARD WILL BRING MORE OF A NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND WARM DOWNSLOPING ADIABATIC HEATING. THUS, WIDESPREAD
NEAR TO ABOVE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, DRIVEN BY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BOTH DAYS.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS MAY BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, MAINLY IMPACTING KDUA
AND KSPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 69 97 71 98 / 10 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 97 72 98 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 95 70 98 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 90 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 94 74 95 / 20 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
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