773
FXUS64 KOUN 190705
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
205 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 200 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE HELPING
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES INTO
SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHWEST OK THOUGH A VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER IS
LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES, IF THAT, FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND LATE TONIGHT ACROSS A SIMILAR AREA AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, DRY LOW-LEVELS
WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PREVENT MUCH FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
EVEN WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS, CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODEST
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL HELP BUMP HIGHS A BIT WARMER OVER
YESTERDAY, WITH READINGS INT THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS FURTHER OVER THE REGION. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN OK BUT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MOVE INTO KS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS,
GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 MPH, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EACH AFTERNOON.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US MAKES SLOW PROGRESS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST ACROSS NM INTO THE
PANHANDLES.
TROUGHING IS THEN FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATER
IN THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASING THEREAFTER ON
WHETHER WE SEE RIDGING RETURN TO THE REGION OR ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. EITHER WAY, IT APPEARS
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS
INCREASED WITH BASES GENERALLY 20,000-25,000 FEET. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 15,000 FEET OR SO.
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TO SOUTHEAST AT NIGHT.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 53 72 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 71 53 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 54 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 70 50 72 53 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 52 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 78 52 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
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