435
FXUS64 KOUN 120645
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 139 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- HOT, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE TO
LATE WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY WITH A NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL RISK ACROSS WESTERN AND PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ALTHOUGH A SEVERE RISK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WHILE AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH GREAT PLAINS REGION WILL TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA BRINGING A CHANGE OF BREEZY WARMER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR TODAY. LATE MORNING MIXING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR TODAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
BE RISING AS UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES
BUILDING IN. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN OUR WARMING TREND ENHANCED BY
MAXIMUM SOLAR HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY RISING WELL ABOVE
CLIMATICALLY NORMAL FOR MID-MAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL SOAR
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WHILE THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BE PUSHING A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO NORTHERN AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT. EXPECTING THE COOLER AIR TO LAG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/KANSAS BUT WILL KEEP TONIGHT CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK OFF THE MO-ARK
REGION WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA WITH
WARM MID TO UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE NEW MEXICO ROCKIES JUST BELOW AN UPPER HIGH
PRODUCING A STRONG GRADIENT OF HOTTER GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THAT
PART OF OUR AREA WILL HEAT WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ALTHOUGH
SHOULD STAY WELL CAPPED FOR ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, BOTH GFS &
NAM DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE PROPAGATING EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST CWA
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
SUGGESTS WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY FOR A STORM TO
DEVELOP SHOULD THIS DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL GO
HIGHER THAN NBM BY ADDING 10% POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A NON-
SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.
BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE CENTRAL
& SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS IT COULD
BE QUITE WINDY WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AND COULD BE
GUSTING 35-40+ MPH AS MIXING TO THE 850 MB LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
LIKELY. AS A RESULT THURSDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT, WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND A RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF I-35 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CAN'T
RULE OUT A WIND ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE GULF MOISTURE MAY BE
INITIALLY SLOW TO RETURN IT MAY SUFFICIENT TO SHARPEN A WEAK BUT
BROAD DRYLINE ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGER
DRYLINE SHARPENING OVER THE WESTERN TX & OK PANHANDLES. THE DRIER
AIR MAY LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES BEHIND THE BROAD DRYLINE ENOUGH
ALONG WITH HOT 90S TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDOWN. AS FAR AS EDITS, THE NBM WINDS WERE REPRESENTATIVE FOR
THURSDAY BUT DID GO HIGHER THAN DEFAULT WITH THE AFTERNOON GUSTS
USING THE 90TH PERCENTILE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
BREEZY BUT LESS GUSTY ON FRIDAY SHOULD THE STRONG MORNING LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKEN. OUR HEATING TREND PEAKS ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
90S TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS UP TO 103 DEGREES. OUR UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH STARTS DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SURFACE-BASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENING THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS AND FEELING MUCH MUGGIER WITH THE HEAT. THE
SHARPENED DRYLINE OUT IN THE PANHANDLES WILL START MAKING ADVANCES
TOWARD OUR AREA ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. NBM POPS HAVE LOWERED
TO TEENS FOR SATURDAYS SEVERE RISK AS POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-30%
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST REGION MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS ACROSS
OUR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN & WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 15Z WHILE A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS LIGHT & VARIABLE
ACROSS OUR REMAINING TERMINALS. BY 15Z SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 GUSTING 20-25 KTS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KDUA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT & VARIABLE. AFTER
02Z SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 GUSTING 15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 90 60 92 65 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 87 60 93 65 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 93 58 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 86 60 82 59 / 0 10 0 10
DURANT OK 81 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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