309  
FXUS64 KOUN 081745  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1145 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR, WITH A QUARTER MILE  
VISIBILITY REPORTED AT GAGE, CLINTON, WATONGA, AND WOODWARD. A  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST AND  
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXPIRES AT 9AM. ALSO AT THIS HOUR, RAIN  
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THERE IS A SWATH OF 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS SO  
FAR IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (ALONG I-44) AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW  
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS ACTIVITY.  
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING AND TRANSITIONS  
TO PATCHY BY MID-DAY AS RAIN EXITS OUR FA.  
 
CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS  
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING/EXIT OF A SUBTLE SOUTHERN-STREAM  
WAVE, ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL WAA, AND RESULTING STRATUS. WESTERN  
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF  
SEE THE SUN THAN THE REST OF OUR AREA, THOUGH A TREND IN ADDITIONAL  
SKY COVER HAS BEEN NOTED WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS. MOST AREAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW-60S TO  
LOW-70S.  
 
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY  
THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW OVER NORTHWEST OK EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NICELY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH  
TEXAS. THE EFFECTIVE "COOL" FRONT REACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  
LATE TONIGHT, CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
THOMPSON  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER  
TO THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE  
PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH PUSHES  
ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR CWA ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOW RAIN CHANCES  
BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUT WEST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEEPENS. THE REST  
OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW-60S.  
 
THEN, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC REACHES THE  
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY RESULTS IN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS  
OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS  
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASES ON MONDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF  
THE SURFACE LOW. AS OF NOW, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
LATE MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT, FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
THE POTENTIAL AND ADJUST TIMING/DETAILS AS MORE DATA ARRIVES.  
 
THOMPSON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KWWR WILL REMAIN UNDER IFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH 22Z, ALTHOUGH KCSM MAY BE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS  
AROUND 19Z. THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS GRADUALLY STARTING TO LIFT  
WITH INCREASING VISIBILITIES. DRIER AIR CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO  
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE STRATUS IN A FEW  
MORE HOURS AS ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND  
21-22Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, A  
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH AFTER 00Z SHIFTING THE WINDS  
OUT OF THE NORTH EVENTUALLY REACHING TERMINAL KSPS BY 08Z. COULD  
SEE A RETURN OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE  
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 39 56 46 / 10 0 10 80  
HOBART OK 64 38 57 44 / 0 0 20 80  
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 45 64 53 / 30 0 10 70  
GAGE OK 68 28 56 35 / 0 0 10 40  
PONCA CITY OK 58 33 54 41 / 10 0 0 80  
DURANT OK 68 51 66 57 / 40 20 0 70  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-  
015>020-022>032-035>044-046>048-051-052.  
 
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ085.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...01  
LONG TERM....01  
AVIATION...68  
 
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