560
FXUS64 KOUN 262313
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
613 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA,
WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT SEEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH STILL A LOW
CHANCE OVERALL (20-30%). LATER TONIGHT, WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOW
STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG RETURN TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THIS IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY AS OF NOW (<10% CHANCE).
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT, MAKING WAY FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN
TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE HINTS IN MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THE RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES AS WELL.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT TO
SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND COULD IMPACT
DUA/OKC/OUN/SWO AND POSSIBLY SPS. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO
VFR AND THEN DISSIPATE MIDDAY. WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 94 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 68 94 72 98 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 94 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 94 71 100 / 10 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 91 71 95 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 70 88 71 92 / 20 20 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30
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