611
FXUS64 KOUN 031114
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THIS WAVE MOVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST, COOLER SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH
IN ITS WAKE WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE MOST
NOTICEABLE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING FROM
WEST TO EAST. STILL ANTICIPATE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S, BUT
MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX INTO STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD AID IN KEEPING ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN CHECK, BUT POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
DEEP SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BRING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 18 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOWER
80S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY, MODELS ARE KEEPING DEEPER MIXING AT BAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, IF DEEPER MIXING DOES OCCUR, CLOSER TO
850MB, THEN WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN THE FORECAST. EVEN WITH THE CURRENT LOWER WIND SPEEDS, GIVEN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND RH VALUES
ACROSS THE WEST DROPPING BELOW 20%, AN AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK
BEFORE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EJECTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE INITIAL LEAD WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE GFS
WANTS TO PULL THE LEAD WAVE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, THE ECMWF REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH WITH
PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH NO
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE BOTH MODELS
BRING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT OVERHEAD AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS FRIDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED LAST NIGHT, PERSISTENCE WOULD
SAY DRIER IS THE WAY TO LEAN AND THE LATEST NBM NUMBERS HAVE SHIFTED
THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST, AND WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO NBM AT THIS TIME AND WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD NEAR DUA. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY BRING MVFR
CEILING TO DUA THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z. ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS IS
DEVELOPING SLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MAY REACH
PNC AFTER 13-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
A NORTHERLY WIND. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 53 34 60 47 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 59 32 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 34 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 52 31 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 59 34 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06
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