173
FXUS64 KOUN 111838
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
138 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ON THURSDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- HOT & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN BY
SATURDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND ABOVE 100-105 DEGREES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF NW OK SO FAR TODAY WITH THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEDFORD AND ENID, TO NEAR TALOGA AND
CHEYENNE OK AT 1 PM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE S
AND SE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN/STALLING SOMEWHERE IN THE RED RIVER VICINITY
BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
SOUTH IT WILL ACTUALLY GO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES >104 POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AN
AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PREFRONTAL "TORCHING" COULD
OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY "COOLER" WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A BIT COOLER (LOWS MID 60S TO LOW 70S) COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS (MID 70S TO AROUND 80).
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN OK. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT COULD DEVELOP INTO A EASTWARD MOVING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX MAY DIMINISH/END BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO PARTS OF THE FA, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT COULD CONTINUE
INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK
NORTHWARD FRIDAY WITH THE AREA SEEING A RETURN TO UPPER 60S AND 70S
DEWPOINTS. WITH THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LINGER RAIN, AND CLOUD COVER, "COOLER"
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. UNFORTUNATELY, A RETURN TO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE COMMON SATURDAY WITH SOME
AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH OR EXCEED 105
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. COVERAGE/CHANCE
LOOKS TO SLOWLY END FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH BY MONDAY. THE STRONGER
FRONT/MORE MODIFIED POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ALSO YIELD MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW TO MID-80S
HIGHS AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH
00Z. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
RESULTING WITH A NORTH WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT AT 20 KT
GUSTING 30 KTS. EXPECTING THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT TO REACH THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY 22-23Z EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE RED RIVER BY
04-06Z. MEANWHILE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 20 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS UNTIL THE FRONTAL
ARRIVAL. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE
FRONT BY 23Z WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DEGRADE SOME OF OUR TERMINALS TO
AN MVFR CATEGORY DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 86 73 94 / 80 40 10 10
HOBART OK 68 90 73 97 / 50 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 91 74 96 / 70 50 10 0
GAGE OK 65 89 71 100 / 20 30 50 30
PONCA CITY OK 66 86 73 95 / 10 10 20 50
DURANT OK 76 89 77 93 / 70 70 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ018>020-022>031-
033>040-044.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>088.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...68
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page