726
FXUS64 KOUN 041741
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- OUR HEATWAVE AND DANGEROUS HEATING WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN HOT TEMPERATURES AND
ONGOING DROUGHT/VERY DRY FUELS.
- LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
BUT OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL BUT TWO OF OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DUE TO HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105-109 POSSIBLE.
MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A PSEUDO-DRYLINE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH THE HOT MUGGY AIR TO THE EAST ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECTING THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT TO PUNCH EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ADVECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
ROGER MILLS & ELLIS COUNTIES. AS A RESULT IT COULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES BELOW 105 DEGREES AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE DANGEROUS
AFTERNOON HEATING REMAINS THIS AFTERNOONS WEATHER HAZARD. ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE UP TO SCATTERED CU NEAR & EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE STRONGEST (LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS),
EXPECTING CLEAR AFTERNOON SKIES TO THE WEST PRODUCING MAXIMUM SOLAR
HEATING AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH AIR TEMPERATURES UP TO 104 DEGREES.
OUR HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRES EARLY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO SUNDOWN AS OUR
TEMPERATURES START DIURNALLY COOLING. THERE COULD BE STORM ACTIVITY
INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THROUGH WEST TEXAS ALTHOUGH EXPECTING IT TO STAY TO OUR WEST WITH
ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOW-OFF FROM THE STORMS INCREASING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
UPPER JET REMAINS IN A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BLOCKING THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MIDWEST REGIONS WITH A CLOSED OFF UPPER HIGH "HEAT DOME"
PARKED RIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT
OUR HEATWAVE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT HEADLINES FOR
BOTH AFTERNOONS. ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
102-109 DEGREES. WILL PLOT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER SURFACE MOISTURE MAY KEEP
THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES BELOW 105 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER IN THE MID-LEVELS & WEAK HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NAM THE LEAST AND ECMWF
IN-BETWEEN. THIS COULD AFFECT AFTERNOON HEATING EAST OF I-35 BUT
WILL NOT DEVIATE WITH SUNDAYS NBM MAXT THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER, WILL
ADD LOW 16% ISOLATED STORM POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH
WEAK/LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ENSEMBLE SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED NEAR/ACROSS OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEK,
DESPITE AT LEAST ONE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO IMPINGE
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE STREAK OF UPPER-90S TO MID-100S
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND >105 DEG F HEAT INDICES ROLLING ON INTO NEXT
WEEK. WHILE NIL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN
OUR FORECAST, CAN'T RULE OUT THE LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN EXACTLY THE PATTERN BREAKS, EVEN FOR JUST A
FEW DAYS. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS *SOME/MODEST* SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS MODERATED TEMPERATURES ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND
(12TH-14TH). SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING WITH KEEN INTEREST OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL
CUMULUS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>008-010>013-
015>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-018>020-025-026-028>032-036-037-039>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...08
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