309
FXUS64 KOUN 081745
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR, WITH A QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY REPORTED AT GAGE, CLINTON, WATONGA, AND WOODWARD. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXPIRES AT 9AM. ALSO AT THIS HOUR, RAIN
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THERE IS A SWATH OF 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS SO
FAR IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (ALONG I-44) AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS ACTIVITY.
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MID MORNING AND TRANSITIONS
TO PATCHY BY MID-DAY AS RAIN EXITS OUR FA.
CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TODAY AS
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING/EXIT OF A SUBTLE SOUTHERN-STREAM
WAVE, ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL WAA, AND RESULTING STRATUS. WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEE THE SUN THAN THE REST OF OUR AREA, THOUGH A TREND IN ADDITIONAL
SKY COVER HAS BEEN NOTED WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS. MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW-60S TO
LOW-70S.
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW OVER NORTHWEST OK EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NICELY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. THE EFFECTIVE "COOL" FRONT REACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT, CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER
TO THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH PUSHES
ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR CWA ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOW RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUT WEST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEEPENS. THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW-60S.
THEN, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC REACHES THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY RESULTS IN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INCREASES ON MONDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AS OF NOW, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AND ADJUST TIMING/DETAILS AS MORE DATA ARRIVES.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KWWR WILL REMAIN UNDER IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 22Z, ALTHOUGH KCSM MAY BE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 19Z. THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS GRADUALLY STARTING TO LIFT
WITH INCREASING VISIBILITIES. DRIER AIR CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THE STRATUS IN A FEW
MORE HOURS AS ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND
21-22Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH AFTER 00Z SHIFTING THE WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH EVENTUALLY REACHING TERMINAL KSPS BY 08Z. COULD
SEE A RETURN OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 39 56 46 / 10 0 10 80
HOBART OK 64 38 57 44 / 0 0 20 80
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 45 64 53 / 30 0 10 70
GAGE OK 68 28 56 35 / 0 0 10 40
PONCA CITY OK 58 33 54 41 / 10 0 0 80
DURANT OK 68 51 66 57 / 40 20 0 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
015>020-022>032-035>044-046>048-051-052.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ085.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68
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