405
FXUS64 KOUN 200630
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES OCCUR TODAY AS UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
VEERED FLOW, AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. STILL
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO GET HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB NEAR
OF ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PARTS OF NORTHERN INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY AND EXPAND FURTHER WEST.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND VERY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG THERMAL
RIDGE (PRE-FRONTAL TORCH) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO
107 ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, IT STILL
APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHER THAN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING,
MOST OF IT BEING FELT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, NOT MUCH OF AN
IMPACT IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO ARE NOW SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS BEING THE STRONGER OF THE TWO
MODELS, WHICH MIGHT SUPPRESS THE RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FRONT TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE EURO IS MORE RESERVED AND KEEPS THE PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST, SO WE WILL NOT GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS
PROSPECT YET, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THE LATEST NBM IS
INTRODUCING SOME LOW POPS FOR LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE BETTER BET
IS FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING, OTHERWISE, THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
I GUESS ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE GULF AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY IS DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OKLAHOMA OR
NORTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER HIGH KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING VALID PERIOD. FAIR-
WEATHER CUMULUS COVERAGE AND CORRESPONDING RAIN/THUNDER RISK WILL
BE LOWER ON MONDAY (COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS) DUE TO
DRIER/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 78 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 99 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 99 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 99 78 102 76 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 99 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-024>026-028>032-039>043-
045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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