738
FXUS64 KOUN 041114
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- STORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OK EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING MCV, AIDED BY A
~30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS HAS REMAINED SUBSEVERE
THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO WANE OVER TIME THROUGH THE MORNING.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS.
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO
DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY RESIDUAL MCVS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LINGERING IN THE AREA. THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND IT
APPEARS OUR AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT BETWEEN WAVES BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ONE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING AWAY ACROSS KS, WHILE THE
BROADER UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN MX INTO AZ/NM. THEREFORE, STORM
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS,
ALONG WITH A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70 IN MOST SPOTS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MX WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
TX ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO OK BY SATURDAY. INITIALLY THIS
WILL CONFINE BETTER STORM CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY, BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS AS THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIMITED. THAT
SAID, CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO OK, THOUGH WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD OVER TIME AS THE
TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWN
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TROUGH REMAINING FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S AND SE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 70 88 70 / 10 0 10 20
HOBART OK 91 69 92 68 / 10 10 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 69 90 68 / 0 0 20 60
GAGE OK 89 69 93 69 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 86 70 89 72 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 85 71 85 72 / 40 10 30 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25
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