154
FXUS64 KOUN 241843
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
143 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX TODAY INTO FRIDAY, EXPANDING EAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OK. SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN NM
TODAY. MEANWHILE, A PLUME OF BETTER MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS OF MID 60S
TO LOW 70) IS SEEN IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS AREA OF
BETTER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY RECEIVING SFC HEATING AND IS CLOSER TO
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE HEATING, SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEEK, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) INCREASING TODAY WITH VALUES
OF 1.75"-2.00" POSSIBLE. WITH THE INCREASING PWATS, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BECOME AN
INCREASING CONCERN INTO TONIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS (MID 80S TO MID 90S) ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO BE COOLER THAN WHAT THIS AREA HAD EXPERIENCED OVER A RECENT
NUMBER OF WEEKS. TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE MILD/WARM ACROSS THE FA WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WHICH ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN
TX/WESTERN LA GULF COASTS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SW FLOW FURTHER EAST INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO FLATTEN CAUSING THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVER THE AREA. WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY (1500-2000
J/KG) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER (1.75"-2.00") FORECAST TO STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH.
THE HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
IF IT IS OVER A LOCATION THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAIN IN EARLIER ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN NW OK
FRIDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY IN THE 70S DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS/RAIN. OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST. NO REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND HEAD OUR
DIRECTION BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE AREA. HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE AND THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE TROUGH REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH THE POTENTIAL
INJECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC LIKELY
PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OUR AREA HAS SEEN IN MANY WEEKS.
THAT SAID, CURRENT NBM PERCENTILES FOR OKC RAIN TOTALS SHOW WIDE
VARIABILITY, RANGING FROM ONLY 0.05" AT THE 25TH PERCENTILE TO
OVER 2 INCHES AT THE 75TH PERCENTILE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH. AT LEAST A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS ALSO IN THE CARDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCSM AND KWWR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS
GENERALLY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 89 71 90 / 10 20 30 50
HOBART OK 70 88 69 91 / 40 40 50 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 96 70 96 / 10 20 30 40
GAGE OK 65 79 63 87 / 70 60 60 20
PONCA CITY OK 66 82 67 84 / 10 40 50 70
DURANT OK 64 94 68 96 / 0 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...13
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