839
FXUS64 KOUN 221045
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A WARM AND DRY DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HIGHS ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS
SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION BUT SHIFTING
EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
DESPITE THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE FA INCLUDING ON SATURDAY WHICH IS A BIT OF A
CHANGE COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A FEW DAYS AGO.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS
BEING A LITTLE BIT BREEZIER IN WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA
FRIDAY DUE TO SFC LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING WHICH INCREASES THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE REGION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BEFORE OPENING UP INTO A
WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
ABUNDANT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF RAIN EVENTS THAT THE AREA HAS HAD
WHICH MEANS LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVERALL COMPARED TO
THOSE EVENTS. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING 90TH PERCENTILE (REASONABLE
WORST CASE SCENARIO) RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH A SUBTLE UPTICK
IN GUSTINESS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 80 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 82 56 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 54 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 83 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09
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