300
FXUS64 KOUN 231830
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY FEATURE A DRIER PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN AGAIN MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
TWO MCVS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ONE MCV HAS BEEN MOVING
ACROSS THE FA ALL MORNING AND WAS CENTERED NEAR OSAGE COUNTY AROUND
MID-DAY. ANOTHER SMALLER MCV HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND
WAS OVER ALFALFA COUNTY AT MID-DAY AS WELL. THE MCVS HAS CONTINUED
SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING. THE MCVS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LARGER ONE HAS SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE MCVS WILL HELP MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW SOME NEW SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
IN NW PORTIONS OF THE FA NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA DUE TO THE AFFECTS FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY AND
HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN OCCUR. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING
IN THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR HEATING AND RADAR SHOWS A STORM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA SO IF
THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP INTO THE AREA, THEY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MAYBE SEVERE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MODELS ALSO SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WEST TX AND NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E AND SE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LLJ TO
HELP MAINTAIN DEVELOPMENT, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA BUT A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BE
STRONG/SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END/MOVE OUT OF THE FA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL INTO THE
50S AND 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS TX DURING THIS
TIME BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF MUCH OF THE FA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES
CLOSER ALTHOUGH IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE FA THAN MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SIMILARLY TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, MOST OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE LATE IN THE EVENING AFTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH/LOW. BRIEF RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF LULL IN PRECIPITATION, BUT
IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD, THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
STORMS CHANCES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN/THUNDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY AT KWWR & KPNC.
ANOTHER ROUND OF (LIKELY DECAYING) ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND OFFER POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
ALSO MONITORING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND/OR
FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE ONLY INCLUDED REDUCED CATEGORY
(MVFR) AT KDUA DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH EXPANSION IN TIME/SPACE IS
POSSIBLE AT LATER UPDATES.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 81 63 83 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 84 61 86 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 84 62 85 / 40 10 0 0
GAGE OK 55 83 60 86 / 30 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 59 81 61 84 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 66 82 66 83 / 20 10 10 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09
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