694
FXUS64 KOUN 212026
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO THE WARMING WE WILL SEE THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY, AND MAY AT TIMES BECOME GUSTY IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME SPORADIC HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST, WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY INTERESTING THING THIS SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION HAS IN IT.
ZWINK
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF NE NM/SE CO. MODELS SHOW THE SFC LOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE FA STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA, LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO WAA. AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE
SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
EXPAND/INCREASE ACROSS THE FA. HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN. MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE DROPPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM, WITH A CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE/HOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN THE FA TUESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SOME LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF THE FA TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
ZWINK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 57 45 58 / 0 0 10 60
HOBART OK 35 59 45 64 / 0 0 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 36 60 47 64 / 0 0 10 30
GAGE OK 34 60 44 65 / 0 0 20 60
PONCA CITY OK 31 58 43 55 / 0 0 30 80
DURANT OK 32 56 44 59 / 0 0 10 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...50
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