374
FXUS64 KOUN 061927
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A NUMBER OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LITTLE TO NO MIXED-LAYER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN) ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A CUMULUS
FIELD HAS BEEN BUBBLING, BUT THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT SO EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ISOLATED AND IN
AREAS WHERE CONVERGENCE/LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED BY TERRAIN OR ANY
MESOSCALE/LOCAL EFFECTS. AS HAS BEEN A RECURRING THEME, DOWNDRAFT
CAPE IS HIGH WITH 1300-1500 J/KG ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA, SO THE
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, SO
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED IN GENERAL.
OTHERWISE THE WEATHER IS STATUS QUO. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED FOG TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL NOT
PUT ANY IN THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THIS PACKAGE, BUT THE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RH WILL BE HIGH (ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA), SO SOME LOCALIZED FOG
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WE EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AGAIN. LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MORE SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA, SO HIGHS WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE BACK IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT
BE TOO HIGH, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 100-105.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE HOTTEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS DAILY TO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS,
BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING. VERY LOW CHANCES (<10%) FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 93 72 98 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 71 96 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 97 73 100 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 69 96 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 90 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 94 74 96 / 20 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
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