352
FXUS64 KOUN 211932
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WAA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FA WHICH COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS EARLY FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER
WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL A COLD SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOW TO MID
60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WITH SOME
ORTHOGONALITY TO THE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE SUGGEST THAT ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS, EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT, HOWEVER, WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
WAVE, WHICH COULD DICTATE THE DYNAMICS AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OF RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT,
DEPENDING ON THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL, TIMING, AND COVERAGE.
ASIDE FROM STORMS IN THE LONG TERM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE FALL-LIKE.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
UPPER AIR
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 76 61 82 / 10 20 0 0
HOBART OK 52 81 61 86 / 10 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 83 61 87 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 46 80 58 86 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 76 57 83 / 0 10 30 10
DURANT OK 51 79 59 84 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...25
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