033  
FXUS64 KOUN 132253  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
553 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 549 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
- RAIN WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY  
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH  
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MOISTURE FROM THE  
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND, ISENTROPIC ASCENT, AND A COLD  
FRONT ARE ALL THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES AIDING IN THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF THE ONGOING RAIN.  
 
THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH. IT'S THE TYPE  
OF DAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL, BUT THE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST SPOTS WILL BE LIGHT.  
 
THE CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOL  
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S  
DEG F. SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS--  
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE--WILL ONCE AGAIN  
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEG F.  
 
BY THIS EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL GO THROUGH FRONTOLYSIS  
(DISSIPATE) AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS TO THE  
NORTH. THIS WILL END THE CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH  
TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY  
WILL BE NEAR 100% WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
VERY WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AREA WIDE IN TANDEM WITH A  
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE ~590 TO 592 DAM MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX. AS A RESULT, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEG F BOTH DAYS WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ~10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
MID-OCTOBER.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AS LONGWAVE  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN BASIN AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS  
OCCURS LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH  
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PLAIN STATES. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE  
AREA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND GULF MOISTURE WILL  
BE RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY  
RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA.  
 
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST THE ATTENDANT SURFACE  
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO  
PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SO BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WELL IN  
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT, WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY  
RESIDE, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  
 
MODELS STILL DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER AIR  
PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
DROPS OFF BY THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
EVENING WITH THE RAIN GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD. MVFR/VFR  
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH A  
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SPORADICALLY DROP BELOW MVFR WITH THE HIGHEST  
POTENTIAL OF THIS OCCURRING AT KWWR. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY  
IMPROVE ALONG WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS TAF PERIOD. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TONIGHT, SOME BR WILL BE  
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT KWWR. THERE ARE  
SOME INDICATIONS THAT VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW A MILE HERE BUT  
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT IT IS CURRENTLY NOT IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL  
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME SE OR S TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 85 62 84 / 10 10 0 0  
HOBART OK 62 87 60 85 / 10 10 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 59 81 58 82 / 30 10 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 64 85 62 85 / 20 10 0 0  
DURANT OK 63 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...10  
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM....30  
AVIATION...25  
 
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