609
FXUS64 KOUN 112258
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
558 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- HEAT INDICES 95 TO NEAR 105 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- STORMS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 105 IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL
NOT BE A STRONG AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WAS A MITIGATING
FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE WBGT, SO IT MAY FEEL HOTTER TODAY AS
COMPARED TO THU/FRI.
OTHERWISE, A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS AS WELL AS A MCV
MOVING OUT OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE 3 TO 4 O'CLOCK TIME FRAME. WITH
THE RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW AND LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WARM/HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL
WILL LIMIT THE RISK. IN ADDITION, WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS, ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE EVENING AND THEN APPROACHING THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH OVER TIME. AS CONVECTION GETS
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT, A COLD POOL MAY DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD MOTION, LIMITING OVERALL
HEAVY RAINFALL RISK, BUT ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD STILL
OCCUR.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WAIN AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, BUT MAY NOT ENTIRELY
DISSIPATE. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOP INCREASE AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE? SOME
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY AND KEEP THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, WHILE OTHERS
KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL KEEP
A LARGER AREA OF MODEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND TRY TO
REFINE AS SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CLEAR. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AGAIN APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARD.
WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE "COLD FRONT"
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HOWEVER, HEAT
INDICES WILL STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOW 100S IN THE SOUTH.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH,
BUT AGAIN THIS WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STAY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA, EVEN IN THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE
INTO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
WEEK FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. BUT THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THAT WILL AFFECT
THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK. SO
WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE, IT
GENERALLY LOOKS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH
A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.
EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILING AT MOST SITES, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 92 71 92 / 70 30 40 20
HOBART OK 74 95 71 93 / 40 50 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 97 72 95 / 30 40 50 20
GAGE OK 70 93 69 92 / 10 30 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 71 89 69 89 / 60 10 10 0
DURANT OK 77 94 74 93 / 40 50 60 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
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