672
FXUS64 KOUN 280346
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1008 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE COOLING DOWN MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL RESULT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL BE NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DEG F.
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID TO UPPER
80S DEG F. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE-
NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (~1.80 INCHES) AND
WEAK/NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON (ESSENTIALLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE SURFACE LOW). CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S
DEG F. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (>1.70 INCHES).
POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
BY TUESDAY, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE-OFF INTO
A CUTOFF LOW. WITH THE SYSTEM CLOSING-OFF AND SLOWING DOWN, THE
MOST APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT (AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES)
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN THE COOLEST WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S DEG F. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON (FOR LATE SEPTEMBER) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE CLOSED
LOW MAKING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ALONG WITH ALREADY PRESENT
PLUME OF MOISTURE, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL GET PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM AS WELL, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY AND
FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOW/MID 80S FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A STRATUS DECK PRODUCING CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-
MORNING ALTHOUGH EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH (4,000 FT)
ACROSS 4 OF OUR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA
(KOKC, KOUN, KSWO & KPNC) KEEPING THOSE TERMINALS IN A VFR
CATEGORY. HOWEVER OUR REMAINING TERMINALS COULD REDUCE TO AN MVFR
OR IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 12-18Z THEN RETURNING TO A VFR CATEGORY
AFTER 18Z. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS &
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHICH MAY ALSO IMPACT TERMINAL KWWR IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 13-16Z ALSO KEEPING THAT TERMINAL IN AN
IFR CATEGORY. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY RETURNING
TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 18Z BUT THAT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO BE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR KDUA BUT MENTIONABLE
IN THIS DISCUSSION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AT 5-10 KTS BUT EXPECTED TO VEER IN DIRECTION MORE EASTERLY BY 12Z
AT SOME OF OUR TERMINALS AND LIKELY STAY THAT WAY AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 91 / 10 10 0 10
HOBART OK 68 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 95 72 96 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 63 87 67 84 / 0 0 0 50
PONCA CITY OK 65 84 67 87 / 10 10 0 30
DURANT OK 67 92 69 95 / 40 30 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68
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