158
FXUS64 KOUN 082029
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK
WITH A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
QUICK NEAR-TERM UPDATE TO INCLUDE 15-20% POPS FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE SHOWS LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING FROM ROUGHLY CLINTON/WEATHERFORD TO MEDFORD ALONG A LINE
OF TOWERING CUMULUS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS WHICH SHOW AN ISOLATED/BRIEF STORM OR TWO WITHIN THIS AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE) WITH MODEST SHEAR
(30 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER) OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, SO THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF A
DOWNBURST IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 AS OF THE NOON
HOUR. THIS IS TRACKING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR
TWO FASTER THAN NBM/OFFICIAL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS UNSURPRISING IN THAT
REGIME. PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA STAND A GOOD CHANCE
OF SEEING THEIR FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY OF 2026.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRETTY LIMITED IN SCOPE TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE WEAK CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE BACKED AND
DEWPOINTS STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.
DRY MID-LEVELS AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL PROMOTE 1,600+ J/KG OF
DCAPE, SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE DOWNBURSTS EVEN WITH SMALL
CORES.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. NBM SUGGESTS LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 DEGREES, AND WITH THE BREEZE REMAINING FROM THAT DIRECTION
I'D BE HARD-PRESSED TO SAY THAT IT WILL BE WRONG.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
TOMORROW WILL BE ALMOST AS HOT AS TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THERE'S A WEAK SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THAT ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LEAD THE BOUNDARY TO STALL THERE.
THAT BOUNDARY IS A POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR FURTHER
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A MOIST LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY PREVENT
GINORMOUS DCAPE VALUES FROM BEING REALIZED, BUT A LOW-END DOWNBURST
THREAT WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE, HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY WITH
A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL NEED HEAT ADVISORIES NEAR AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF STORMS IS PROBABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TOMORROW EVENING WITH NEAR-EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A
DECENT RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. A REASONABLE
EXPECTATION WOULD BE THAT STORMS ARRIVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AROUND 9:00 PM. WHETHER THIS IS A CLUSTER, ORGANIZED MCS, OR JUST
DECAYING UPDRAFTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MODULATION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THAT WILL BE THE FOCUSING POINT
FOR BOTH HEAT RISK AND STORM POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT -
PERHAPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS,
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE IN THE 100S. MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS INTO
NEXT WEEK, HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT FOR WHICH PROB30S HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. WINDS WILL SHOW A TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON VEERING AND BREEZINESS.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 78 101 78 100 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 76 101 72 99 / 20 10 40 10
PONCA CITY OK 78 99 74 96 / 20 10 20 10
DURANT OK 80 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ008-013-020-026-
032.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...68
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