085
FXUS64 KOUN 150703
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
203 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 149 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
A FEW GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE, WHILE CAMS KEEP COVERAGE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED. CEILING HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE ROUGHLY 4-6K FEET AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG A NEAR A DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED
FARTHER EAST THAN TUESDAY, SO PERHAPS INITIAL STORM DEVELOP WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF AN ENID TO LAWTON AND SEYMOUR, TEXAS LINE. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR QUICKLY TO AN MCS OR LINE
SEGMENTS. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL RISK TO THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT WITH AN EVOLUTION TO STRONG WINDS, SMALLER
HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, FOCUS WILL TURN TO
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT, AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE INCLUDING THE ADJACENT AREA OF NORTHERN TEXAS. A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY BUT WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY RESULT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY, A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINT IN PLACE,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. SO IF A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY, SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH A RISK OF VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. BY EARLY TO MID EVENING,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA MISSING OUT ON THE RECENT
RAINFALL, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE FUELS
REMAIN RECEPTIVE TO FIRE.
WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED AND LIGHT WINDS, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S, BUT CERTAINLY
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AFTER A COLD START SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, SO MAYBE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH MODEST MOISTURE
RETURN. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING
THE DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
CURRENTLY ONGOING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE
EAST OF MOST, IF NOT ALL, TAF SITES BY 06Z. THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE KDUA IF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THIS
WILL AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. HOWEVER, WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BEFORE SENDING TAFS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CHANCES AT ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
KWWR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 59 86 65 / 70 30 0 10
HOBART OK 86 53 90 62 / 40 10 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 61 91 65 / 60 10 0 10
GAGE OK 83 47 89 60 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 56 85 64 / 60 40 0 0
DURANT OK 78 64 86 66 / 80 50 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...25
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