075
FXUS64 KOUN 260205
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. THE STORMS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ON THE DRY LINE IN
THE CAPROCK REGION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EAST OF LUBBOCK OR
PLAINVIEW. THESE WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
MAIN INITIATION MECHANISM WILL BE A FAVORABLE REGION OF THE MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE EAST OF
LUBBOCK AND MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE, WILL HELP THESE STORMS TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO A LINE OF STORMS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS LINE IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE
AFFECTED ARE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-44.
THE PARAMETER SPACE AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DAMAGING WINDS UP 80 MPH, AND A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS MESOVORTICES.
THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MID
MORNING FRIDAY. A DRYLINE WILL BE STALLED WEST OF I-35 THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST, WITH LITTLE INHIBITION, SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR, THERE
WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RHS IN THE TEENS
WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
SATURDAY: SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL MOVE IN
QUICKLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER ADVANCING NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. A DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SHARPEN ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES/STATE LINE AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE ARE STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER. TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GREATLY IMPACT WHEN THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA, AND IF CONVECTION CAN STICK AROUND SATURDAY
MORNING, THAT WILL LIKELY HAMPER CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SLOWER TROUGH EJECTION (WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING
SHOWN BY THE NAM) AND MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL, BUT IF THERE IS NO MORNING CONVECTION AND THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED WILL ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE PARAMETER SPACE, THERE IS EVEN THE CHANCE THAT
ANY MORNING CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM, MAY BECOME SEVERE. THESE
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL CLOSER TO
THE EVENT, AS GLOBALS MODELS TEND TO DO POORLY WITH SUB-SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS. IN ANY OF THESE SCENARIOS, IT IS VITAL THAT YOU
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE DAY SATURDAY, EVEN AFTER
SUNSET. FIGURE OUT YOUR PLAN NOW, AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE READY TO
ACT WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED.
BY SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL MOVE IN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A WARM UP INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
DURING THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 06Z AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES APART FROM KDUA
AROUND 13Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 82 65 77 / 80 20 0 90
HOBART OK 60 85 61 80 / 80 0 0 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 85 65 78 / 90 10 0 80
GAGE OK 56 86 55 86 / 30 0 0 40
PONCA CITY OK 63 83 65 80 / 90 20 0 80
DURANT OK 66 79 68 81 / 80 70 20 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09
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