566
FXUS64 KOUN 131050
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- HOT/ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
ANOTHER WARM AND LOW-IMPACT WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. A BROAD WESTERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD MARCH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER" COMPARED TO FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA). ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND
IS ALSO FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WHILE MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET/DRY, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION/FRONT WILL BE
FURTHER EAST BY SUNDAY. WHILE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS TIME WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-
NORTH TEXAS WITH TIME ON SUNDAY. GIVEN INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR AND A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY PROGGED, A FEW STRONG-TO-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS WELL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, RETURNING THE AREA TOWARDS MORE DOMINANT DRY AND CONTINUED
WARM WEATHER BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE
UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
EARLY SIGNS POINT TO CONTINUED "WARM" (BY MID-SEPTEMBER STANDARDS)
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA, IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT FROM THIS
FEATURE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 80S TO
LOW-90S, RUNNING +5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO SEASONAL AVERAGE.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED TO
EVENTUALLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
WITH THAT SAID, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST OKLAHOMA LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE TIMEFRAME AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 71 88 70 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 93 70 89 68 / 0 10 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 91 70 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 89 65 83 62 / 0 40 60 20
PONCA CITY OK 93 70 89 69 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 93 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04
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