668  
FXUS64 KOUN 180004  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
APART FROM THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CSM THIS EVENING, VFR  
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 182400.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE NOW USUAL  
SPOTTY AND UNCERTAIN RAIN CHANCES, AS WELL AS HEAT CONCERNS OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING  
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN  
SHOWING PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS, WITH HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES AND  
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A PSUEDO-DRYLINE IS  
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLES. SURFACE MOISTURE  
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING >70F DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN  
OKLAHOMA. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EAST OF  
THE DRIER AIRMASS (>2000 J/KG CAPE) IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME  
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE AIRMASS BOUNDARY LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD  
BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND  
STRONG WINDS.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF PRECIP, HEAT CONTINUES AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH  
TEXAS. THE LONGER THAN EXPECTED LINGERING OF RAIN IN NORTHERN  
OKLAHOMA WILL REDUCE THE HEAT IMPACTS, AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF  
CLOUDS ALONG A 700MB MOISTURE AXIS WILL ACT TO CONTAIN ANY EXCESSIVE  
HEAT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS RELIEF SHOULD  
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING  
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM  
AND LONG RANGE MODELS ON THE SETUP AND THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE, HOWEVER THERE IS CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF IT'S PRESENCE  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
FOR THESE DAYS. WEDNESDAY ONWARD, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN US, WHICH WILL SHIFT  
THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD. THIS SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO  
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE  
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
ZWINK  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 101 77 101 / 30 10 10 10  
HOBART OK 78 107 77 106 / 40 0 10 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 105 79 104 / 20 10 10 0  
GAGE OK 74 103 71 104 / 30 10 10 0  
PONCA CITY OK 76 97 75 98 / 30 10 20 10  
DURANT OK 77 100 78 100 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-  
017>020-023>032-037>048-050>052.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.  
 

 
 

 
 
06/09/09  
 
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