259
FXUS64 KOUN 262333
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE COOLING DOWN MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
INSTABILITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 1500-2000 J/KG AT LEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS BEFORE SUNSET, SHOULD WEAKEN INTO THE NIGHT AS
DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY, SO AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS, DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY'S HIGHS, AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
SUB-TROPICAL JET COMING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
THE 00Z GFS HAS COME IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE EURO IN A MUCH SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK. AFTER THE INITIAL INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY, ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AN EXTENDED CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. I'M RELUCTANT
TO SAY THIS, BUT THIS WOULD BRING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF FLOODING RAINFALL, BELIEVE IT OR NOT AS WE GO THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ONGOING AT LEAST THROUGH 08Z
ALTHOUGH WILL LOWER TO 30% PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 04-08Z. TERMINAL
KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY NOT BE IMPACTED UNTIL 04Z WHILE
TERMINALS KWWR IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD SEE NO IMPACTS.
CEILINGS FROM THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH ALTHOUGH
RAIN COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AT LEAST AN MVFR CATEGORY
SHOULD STORMS MOVE OVER THE IMPACTED TERMINALS AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. BY 08Z ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN A VFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PRODUCING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AT 5-10 KTS BY 15Z. THERE ARE SEVERAL STORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND GUSTY MAINLY
AT TERMINALS KLAW AND KSPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 91 70 91 / 40 30 20 10
HOBART OK 69 93 68 92 / 30 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 98 71 97 / 60 20 10 10
GAGE OK 63 88 63 86 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 65 85 66 84 / 70 10 10 10
DURANT OK 70 97 70 95 / 10 30 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page