732
FXUS64 KOUN 291708
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MID-WEEK; STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING HEAT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KS AND NORTHWEST
OK OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE ROCKIES, AND THIS HAS LED
TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER
FOR SEVERAL OF OUR WESTERN OBSERVATION STATIONS EARLIER THIS EVENING
(AND PRIOR TO THE BL DECOUPLING). SOME AREAS COULD SEE THIS RECUR
AFTER SUNRISE AND AS THE BL BEGINS TO MIX, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
THESE GUSTS TO LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.
OTHER THAN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY, WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PRESENT (ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35), HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW 90'S THERE AND INTO THE MID-90'S ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 81, PEAK READINGS NEAR 100 DEG ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES (NEAR 105) EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR THE DRYLINE (WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN) AND A FEW
DECAYING STORMS MAY REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING WITH
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
STORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT WEST, BUT THIS
MODEL SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.
LOW STORM CHANCES RETURN EACH EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN
THOSE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WIDESPREAD BY JULY 4TH WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIAL
DOWN THE INTENSITY OF THE HEAT JUST A BIT ON SUNDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS S TO SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING S TO SE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN SPEED BUT STILL BREEZY. GUSTY S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED
AGAIN TUESDAY. LLWS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF W OK THIS EVENING THIS ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF KWWR AND KCSM BUT MAY GET
CLOSE. EVEN IF THE STORMS DO NOT MAKE THE TAF SITE, GUSTY VARIABLE
WINDS OUT OF A STORM MAY AFFECT ONE OF THESE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 78 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 99 77 98 75 / 0 10 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 100 78 97 76 / 10 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 93 79 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25
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