235
FXUS64 KOUN 190349
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SW OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- COLD FRONT AND RAIN BRINGS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE COLD FRONT CAN EASILY BE SEEN ON MOST MAPS,
WITH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S AND LOW TRIPLE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHILE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S. NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE KEEPING THINGS NICE AND COOL, WHILE A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY
COOLING ALL OF US OFF FOR A BIT. HOWEVER...
...THINGS THEN BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE INTERESTING. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT
IN THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AS OF 1 PM, THERE IS A SURFACE LOW NEAR LUBBOCK, AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST, WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT OOZES
SOUTHWARD. BY EARLY THIS EVENING, A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE,
AS THE CAMS SUGGEST INITIATION BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER, IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVERNIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE. (SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR
MORE NERDINESS)
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING HAVE PRODUCED SOME HAIL UP TO HALF-
DOLLAR SIZE, ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE SAME
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH, WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
ONCE THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ENDS TOMORROW MORNING, THINGS WILL
SLOW DOWN A BIT FOR ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. RAIN EXITS FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 80S
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
IN THE EXTENDED, THINGS WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
GIVE SOME DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WHILE BEING A FAIRLY
TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN, WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES...BUT PLENTY OF
NICE(ISH) WEATHER IN BETWEEN STORMS.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, YET ONCE AGAIN WINDY AND THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE EXTENDED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. UNFORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S. THAT HEAT WILL BE BRIEF, AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES IN MONDAY AND DROPS HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE E AND
NE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SE FRIDAY. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED AS WELL THIS TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9PM THURSDAY TO 9 PM FRIDAY FOR THE SW
CORNER OF OKLAHOMA, THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA FROM DAVIS TO
THACKERVILLE...AND ALL OF OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES.
IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION, THERE IS AN OVERVIEW OF WHERE/WHY STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA WAS CHOSEN FOR THE
FLOOD WATCH BASED ON A FEW ADDITIONAL PARAMETERS. FIRST, THE
AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS AND CAMS, WHICH HAVE A
CONSISTENT DEPICTION OF THE GEOGRAPHY AND DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
RAIN. SECOND, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY ON A MUCH SMALLER SCALE, BUT OVER 3" OF RAIN FELL
IN MEDFORD OKLAHOMA TODAY. TONIGHT'S STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE SIMILAR RAINFALL PRODUCERS (IF NOT HEAVIER RAIN) THIRDLY,
THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM NORMAN TO THE TEXAS BORDER SAW 2-4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK, MEANING ONLY ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE SOME POTENTIAL FLOODING IN THIS AREA.
MAYBE MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING PWATS BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5
INCHES. FOR COMPARISON, THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGY OF
NORMAN'S UPPER AIR DATA FOR THE 18/19TH OF JUNE IS ~1.9" THUS, THE
MODELS GIVE A GREATER THAN 75% CHANCE OF SEEING EXTREME PWAT
VALUES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PWAT VALUES BY THEMSELVES MIGHT
NOT MEAN ANYTHING, BUT COUPLED WITH EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS, WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WARRANT THE FLOOD
WATCH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 83 69 87 / 90 40 40 30
HOBART OK 64 85 68 90 / 100 30 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 86 70 90 / 90 60 40 20
GAGE OK 61 84 67 90 / 50 20 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 64 83 68 86 / 60 10 40 30
DURANT OK 73 85 73 89 / 60 70 50 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ036>041-044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...25
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