387
FXUS64 KOUN 051833
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
-PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
-WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LIGHTER
AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS,
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO
WESTERN NORTH TX WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL THIS PAST WEEK AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST SPOTS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES SEVERAL MORE DEGREES AS WE HEAD INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS, WITH EVEN A FEW 90S MAKING
A RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~7 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE- NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH
DAYS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
NO SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR, AS INDICATED BY MINIMAL
SPREAD IN BIAS-CORRECTED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S DEG F. THERE
IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE (15%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
TEXAS.
THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK (OCTOBER 13-15) AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, WHICH COULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD INCREASES MARKEDLY
(~30 DEG F) IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 20% (SOUTH)
TO 50% (NORTH) CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 75 DEG F ON
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS BEING KLAW/KSPS/KDUA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TOWARDS THE S BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH S TO SW WINDS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 58 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page