868
FXUS64 KOUN 290706
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
206 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
COULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40.
- SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WARMING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK, WE DO NOT HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND HAS PUSHED ANY INSTABILITY
AWAY FROM THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OUR MAIN WEATHER STORY
TODAY AS A 1023 MB HIGH SHIFTS FROM NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
PUSH ENOUGH UPPER- LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FOR AREAS OF
CIRRUS TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND 30N/130W IS
PROJECTED TO OPEN UP AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
ON THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL POTENTIALLY REACH INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SEEMING TO
BACK OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH OR HOW WIDESPREAD THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALTHOUGH AGAIN THERE IS A QUESTION ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD WITH THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH IN TEXAS. FARTHER NORTHWEST,
EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS HIGH PLAINS, BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
DESPITE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES (PRIMARILY SOUTH), THE FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS DISPLACED INSTABILITY TO THE
SOUTH, SO SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND THE CONTINUED COOL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE COOL AGAIN, BUT THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REDEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A GENERALLY DRY
PATTERN WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALLOW
CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO KDUA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 50 65 50 / 10 10 30 30
HOBART OK 72 49 63 48 / 0 10 60 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 54 65 51 / 10 20 60 60
GAGE OK 70 42 62 43 / 0 30 60 50
PONCA CITY OK 68 46 67 47 / 0 0 20 10
DURANT OK 70 57 65 52 / 20 20 50 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
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