733
FXUS64 KOUN 221743
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
NOT AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING AND EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, NOW DRAPED ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
TX. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAS
HELPED PROMOTE CONTINUED OCCASIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA. MANY CAMS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
SEEMINGLY TIED TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND VEERING FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING, EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY FROM
THE NORTHEAST, HELPING PUSH RAIN CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST BY
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, MAINLY
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. AS IT
DOES SO UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ACROSS TX
INTO OK, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NM INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES LOCALLY, WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. TO OUR WEST, MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK SUBTROPICAL WAVES WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE BLOSSOMING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO WESTERN
OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX AT TIMES, BUT THE BULK OF IT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
WARE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST
DEEPENS. THIS WILL HELP BEND THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
CHANCES THEN EXPANDING ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, VEERING/DRYING FLOW AND WEAKENING
FORCING MAY LEAD TO DWINDLING SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY
MAKES IT INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE 90 DEGREES
AREAWIDE, WITH SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX
POTENTIALLY GETTING BACK CLOSE TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY
IF SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ENDS UP MORE LIMITED.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
THROUGH 11Z. THERE IS A 30% PROBABILITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO MOVE ONLY OVER TERMINAL KCSM IN THE NEXT
TWO HOURS (18-20Z) BUT EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO STAY WELL TO
THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 11Z
REDUCING CEILINGS AT LEAST AN MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR TWO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER (KDUA & KSPS). DID
GO LOWER WITH CEILINGS FOR POTENTIAL IFR CATEGORY AT 3 OF OUR
TERMINALS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA (KPNC, KSWO, & KWWR). A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION UP IN THE U.S. GREAT LAKES REGION
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 15 KTS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z. AFTER 15Z SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER IN
DIRECTION OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 89 66 90 / 0 10 0 10
HOBART OK 64 90 68 92 / 0 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 94 69 95 / 0 10 0 10
GAGE OK 61 86 64 87 / 0 20 30 50
PONCA CITY OK 59 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 68 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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