492
FXUS64 KOUN 220730
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
230 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- ANOTHER "COOLER" DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
- MULTI-HAZARD RISK POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY; SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EAST
OF A DRYLINE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND;
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
COOLER AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY/DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON, AS OUR REGION CONTINUES TO FEEL SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
WEAK/DECAYING IMPULSE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN RUN ON THE COOL SIDE (UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.
LATER IN THE EVENING, WE WILL MONITOR VERY LOW (~10%) POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO CROSS THE 100TH MERIDIAN
INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF THIS OCCURS, STRONG WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. REGARDLESS, ALL AREAS WILL BE STORM-FREE AFTER 12 AM
THURSDAY. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL ALSO FEATURE A GUSTY (UP TO
30-35 MPH) SOUTH WIND ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THURSDAY: A PERIOD OF MULTI-HAZARD RISK REMAINS EVIDENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH, COMPRISED ON MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A DRYLINE MIXES AND SHARPENS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BOTH FIRE
AND SEVERE CHANCES WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE REGION.
ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN NORTH/WEST OF A WAYNOKA-
CHEYENNE LINE, WHERE DETERIORATED (DORMANT) FIRE FUELS PERSIST. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS WITH GREATEST
OVERLAP OF HOT TEMPERATURES, VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM.
A CONDITIONAL, YET HIGH-IMPACT (IF REALIZED), SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETER SPACE WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING. QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND
PERSISTENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML/"CAP"), TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING AND SPACE/TIME DETAILS OF MORNING-INTO-
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE RELATED
FACTORS WILL DETERMINE HOW MANY (IF ANY) ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
EMERGE OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE DEPICTION OF AN ELONGATED ZONE OF
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE (I.E., SECONDARY SURFACE LOW) FROM
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE EVENING.
A FEW CAM MEMBERS DEPICT A LOCALLY AUGMENTED DRYLINE CONFIGURATION
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THIS TIME AS A RESULT. IF
THIS WERE TO BE REALIZED, THEN A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PROBABILITY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY EMERGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT IS SUSTAINED INTO THE EVENING WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO.
AFTER SUNSET, CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOUTHWARD FROM KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, AS A COLD FRONT OVERSPREADS A REMNANT
DRYLINE CIRCULATION. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY, TRANSITIONING TOWARDS MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.
FRIDAY: CONCERN FOR STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY IS JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A CONVECTIVELY-MODIFIED
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAKES IT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR NOW, A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS THIS FEATURE
SLOWING/STALLING NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. RENEWED (AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED) CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LATE EVENING, WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: WHILE EPISODES OF SEVERE CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
ON BOTH DAYS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS DUE TO LIKELY FEEDBACK ON MESOSCALE FACTORS FROM PRIOR
DAYS ACTIVITY, AND TIMING/STRENGTH QUESTIONS OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
THE SPATIAL CONFIGURATION OF SATURDAY'S RISK AREA WILL BE DRIVEN BY
HOW FAR SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS ON LATE
FRIDAY EVENING PRIOR TO NORTHWARD ADVANCE DURING THE DAYTIME.
ADDITIONALLY, SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS RATHER NEBULOUS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH EVIDENCE OF NEUTRAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHT TENDENCY. STILL, WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION, CONCERN FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (POSING A HAIL/WIND/LOW TORNADO
RISK) REMAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING PERIOD.
IN A SIMILAR VEIN TO THURSDAY, THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE ONE OF "LOW PROBABILITY YET HIGH IMPACT". A MUCH MORE
COHERENT AND STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO QUICKLY EMERGE FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS A
ROBUST WARM SECTOR TAKES SHAPE TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. PATTERN
RECOGNITION WOULD ARGUE THAT A ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS
POSSIBLE UNDER THIS REGIME, GENERALLY CENTERED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, A NOTABLE/STRONG EML ("CAP")
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS AGAIN EVIDENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE, RECENT TRENDS IN
GLOBAL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE (I.E., SYNOPTIC ASCENT) INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
STILL, AN SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM IN THE CURRENT PROGGED
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS,
INCLUDING POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
WE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER/TAMER WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SUNDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER/RENEWED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LOOK
TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AT MOST SITES WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG DOWN TO HALF A MILE MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR EXACT LOCATIONS OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME SITES RETURNING TO VFR, WHILE OTHERS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 64 79 61 / 10 0 20 20
HOBART OK 78 64 91 55 / 10 0 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 66 87 63 / 10 0 20 10
GAGE OK 80 61 90 47 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 63 78 57 / 10 10 20 50
DURANT OK 72 65 78 67 / 30 10 10 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014-021-033-034.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23
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