070
FXUS64 KOUN 201818
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
118 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
WITH SOME SEVERE RISK.
- COOL THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN NEAR 80 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A
POSTFRONTAL REGIME. THIS WILL BRING A COMPLEX AND FRAGMENTARY HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON:
-CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA - WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINS, HIGHS IN
THE MID-60S
-SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA - SOME MIXING ALREADY ONGOING WITH GREATER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING FROM THE EAST, HIGHS IN THE MID-70S
-NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS - AT LEAST
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED LATE, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING ABOUT 70
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING IN FAR WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF A SLOW-
MOVING MCV THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD
THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD END UP WITH A NARROW ZONE OF ABOUT 1,000
MUCAPE JUST WEST OF THE STRATUS DECK BY SUNSET, WHICH COULD PERMIT
ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. WITH THAT SAID, THE GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
CHANCES WILL HOLD UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MCV APPROACHES, A
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED 25 KT LLJ DEVELOPS, AND TROPOSPHERIC WATER
VAPOR CONTENT INCREASES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING/REPEAT STORMS.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MAIN STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR PROBLEMATIC
RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 WHERE PWATS WILL
SIT IN THE 95TH-98TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO MUSHY "SKINNY-CAPE" PROFILES WITH
ONLY ABOUT 1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND EXTREMELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
IN FACT, IT WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE TO SEE THAT CONVECTION TOMORROW
IS ON THE MORE MODEST SIDE IN OVERALL LIGHTNING PRODUCTION, AS WELL.
STILL, VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN SPOTS. WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF
0.75-1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF I-44, BUT LOCALIZED SPOTS
THAT SEE MULTIPLE STORMS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN.
THE PATTERN TURNS OVER A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE MODIFIED WARM SECTOR
MAKES A NORTHWARD RUN CLOSER TO THE 100TH MERIDIAN. MOST MODELS SHOW
A PSEUDO-TRIPLE-POINT ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THAT FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE JET REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTH. IN ADDITION TO NEBULOUS
FORCING, THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AVAILABLE TO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FOR THAT REASON, A MIX OF
SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL MODES IS EXPECTED WITH HOWEVER MANY STORMS
DEVELOP. APART FROM THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, FRIDAY WILL SEE A
RATHER CONSIDERABLE WARMUP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOL-SIDE FOR
OKLAHOMA STANDARDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S TO MID-80'S. SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY BY SATURDAY
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS COULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY GIVEN WEAK
SHEAR.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE RETURN OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL SEE SOME MODEST LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIPPING BACK INTO IFR OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS STARTING IN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 68 58 78 / 50 100 70 10
HOBART OK 55 70 56 81 / 50 70 50 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 73 58 83 / 50 90 40 10
GAGE OK 50 68 53 78 / 50 60 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 53 69 57 77 / 50 70 90 10
DURANT OK 63 74 63 82 / 40 100 90 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14
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