128
FXUS64 KOUN 092303
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
603 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- LOW STORM & SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH SUNSET TODAY; GENERALLY
IMPROVING/"LESS HOT" CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
IT'S SETTING UP TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID ONE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS, WITH (LOW) CHANCES FOR STORMS/SEVERE WEATHER AS
WE ROLL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
PREVIOUS WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
AS WARM MID-LEVEL ASCENT WANES. WHILE A MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE AND REMNANT (SCATTERED) CLOUD COVER MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY
HEAT "RELIEF" TODAY, 100-110 F HEAT INDICES REMAIN FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. DESPITE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR US TO FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA HEAT INDICES IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS HEAT
ADVISORY CONFIGURATION UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY AND HOT/WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS
WITHIN A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING (AFTER 4-5 PM). ANY STORM IN THIS REGIME WILL BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG-DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS. REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND
WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN MID-EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
BY THE LATE EVENING (9-10 PM ONWARD), EVOLVING CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS, THOUGH SOME RISK FOR STRONG-DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER LATE TONIGHT.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE HEAT STRESS RISK LOOKS TO TEMPER SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR MORNING THEN EVENINGTIME
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS.
WARMED/DESERT SOUTHWEST AIRMASSES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONFINED TO OUR WEST, ALONG WITH GENERALLY REDUCED DAY-OVER-DAY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION POTENTIAL. THIS COMBINATION WILL IN TURN YIELD
LESS HOT AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
<105 F HEAT INDICES DURING THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS, STILL USE
CAUTION IF YOU PLAN TO SPEND PROLONGED TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE
DAYTIME.
WARM ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CORES ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY, WITH A MAIN HAZARD OF SPORADIC CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
WE WILL AGAIN WATCH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (WITH A WIND/HAIL RISK) ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY. WHILE A COHERENT AREA OF SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY (I.E., TEXAS & OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES), IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL DECAY
PRIOR TO REACHING WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
A MORE EVIDENT RISK OF STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ARRIVES BY SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, AS A MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PROPAGATES A
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED MID-LEVEL SYSTEM (AND STRONGER FRONT) ACROSS
THE AREA. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, THOUGH A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING TOWARDS A RATHER RAINY/STORMY SOLUTION FOR
THE THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY INCLUDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BUILD INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INTERESTS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS DETAILS CONTINUE TO COME INTO FOCUS.
UNGAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH, AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND HIGH
PLAINS. ACROSS OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARM UP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF PROB30 AT WWR THIS EVENING, MOST SITES
REMAIN DRY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 01-02Z AND THEN INCREASE AT MOST
SITES BY MID=MORNING FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 98 79 98 / 0 10 0 40
HOBART OK 78 99 77 99 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 98 73 98 / 20 20 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 77 96 76 94 / 20 20 30 40
DURANT OK 80 98 80 97 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30
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