785
FXUS64 KOUN 291057
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
(NORTH OF I-40 AND I-44) LATE TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER RETURNS AGAIN
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE
TO WINDY, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST AND
SEVERE IN THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST TODAY
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE WEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 10
TO 15 PERCENT. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE LLTR WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TODAY WITH WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE EXTENT OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EASTWARD WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM TO ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF CONCERN.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO 60S. HOWEVER, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF
AREA WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS CAPPING INVERSION IS THE KEY PLAYER STOPPING INITIATION OF
AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE
MAIN SOURCE OF DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING, SO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO OVERCOME THE CAP WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER,
IF A STORM DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THIS EVENING, THE APPROACHING WAVE ALOFT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIFT
TO THE AREA. THUS, STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND
SUNSET. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG
THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
(ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-40 AND WEST OF HWY-81) AROUND 6-8 PM. INITIAL
SINGLE CELL STORMS MAY DEVELOP, BUT WITH TIME ARE EXPECTED TO GROW
UPSCALE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA (EAST OF HWY-81 AND NORTH OF I-44) BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG BUOYANCY
EXPECTED, BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE. AS STORMS
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST (ROUGHLY AT 35 TO 45 MPH), SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AS STORMS RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HODOGRAPHS
DEPICT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL HELICITY FOR A TORNADIC SPIN-UP. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE NEED FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TO ERODE THE LINGERING CAPPING INVERSION. IF A STORM
WERE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA BY AT LEAST 2-3 AM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT ONLY BE ROUGHLY AROUND THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPLIT OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S, WHILE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE MILD
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AND BE NEARLY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER IN THE 60S. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS BY MONDAY
MORNING IN THE 30S TO 40S. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A COOLER
AIRMASS WITH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY WITH CONTINUATION OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES FIRE WEATHER
AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
TUESDAY IS SHAPING TO BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF AN APPROACHING LARGE SCALE JET STREAK WILL ENTER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY WITH DEEP MIXING OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE. A VERY
STEEP AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THIS DAYTIME MIXING OF 30-
40 KNOT 700MB WINDS. STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW (<30%) CHANCE FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH AND A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (10-40%) CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH. A DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH DRY AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BOUNDARY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS AT LEAST 15
PERCENT WITH A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
AIR, A LLTR LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS, NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE PASSING COLD
FRONT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN DECREASING TRENDS IN THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT NBM POPS WERE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN, WHILE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL TROUGHS DIG INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AND DRYLINE
THIS EVENING. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN SOME TAFS BUT THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN NORTH CENTRAL OK (KPNC/KSWO) THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THESE AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 53 65 41 / 0 50 0 0
HOBART OK 88 49 69 40 / 0 20 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 59 75 45 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 87 39 65 34 / 0 20 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 84 48 62 37 / 10 80 10 0
DURANT OK 81 64 79 47 / 0 30 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25
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