775
FXUS64 KOUN 241103
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
603 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- CONDITIONAL BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT STORM EVENT POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
UPSLOPE, UPSCALE, DIVE SOUTHEAST, REPEAT. THAT PROCESS IS PLAYING
OUT FOR THE NTH TIME ON SATELLITE/RADAR ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
RATON MESA. MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO JUST EAST OF I-25 WITHIN AN
ANOMALOUSLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AT THE MOMENT, VERY LITTLE
FORWARD PROPAGATION IS OCCURRING. HOWEVER, A 20 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS DIRECTED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BACK INTO THE JET.
THIS COULD PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES TOWARD NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK NEAR THE TERMINUS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST, CENTRAL, AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
EVENTUALLY, GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW-TO-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS (OR A NEW CLUSTER IN ITS MCV) WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY REAR-INFLOW JETS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FIRST ROUND IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT
THE INDICATION FROM CAM GUIDANCE (SUCH AS IT IS) WOULD SUGGEST
ANOTHER LULL FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR AREA
IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME BEHIND THE MORNING CLUSTER OF STORMS. AND
THEN OUR ATTENTION WOULD TURN TO ANOTHER GAME OF UPSLOPE, UPSCALE,
DIVE SOUTHEAST, REPEAT LATE TONIGHT.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE LONG-AWAITED PATTERN BREAKDOWN IS UPON US IN THE SHORT TERM.
LIKE MANY PATTERN BREAKDOWNS, IT WILL INVOLVE A CRESCENDO AND FINALE
FIRST. THAT FINALE MAY WELL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND LETS 40 KNOTS OF ZONAL 500 MB
FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN
UNSTABLE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND A POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
TONIGHT'S STORM CLUSTER(S), THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR PERHAPS A LESS
JUNE-LIKE AND A MORE MAY-LIKE CONVECTIVE EVENT. ALMOST ALL GLOBAL
AND CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP, BACKED LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS COMES TO PASS AND THERE
IS A STALLED BOUNDARY, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL, A TORNADO RISK, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING IN A PART OF OKLAHOMA THAT HAS SEEN
EXCESSIVE RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS. EVEN IF ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS DON'T COME TOGETHER IN A CLASSIC MANNER FOR SUPERCELLS,
THE EJECTION OF THAT SPEED MAX ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS LIKELY TO
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND/CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH A SEVERE/FLOODING RISK.
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PRESS EASTWARD ACROSS ESSENTIALLY
THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS, TRAPPED IN BY THAT ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TIER OF THE COUNTRY. FOR US, THAT MEANS A
BEGINNING TO THE UPCOMING WARM-UP. WON'T RULE OUT RAIN/STORM CHANCES
ALTOGETHER ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FURTHER FROM THE
RIDGE AXIS, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE YET ANOTHER WASH-OUT BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SPEND MOST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD
REORIENTING ITSELF SO THAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD (SATURDAY/SUNDAY)
THERE WILL BE AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
AND IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD (MONDAY/TUESDAY) THERE WILL BE
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WE'LL REMAIN ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, WHICH IS USUALLY A GREAT PLACE
FOR THINGS TO START TO HEAT UP. GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAINFALL,
THIS HEATWAVE IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE MORE OF A "BOIL" THAN A "BAKE"
EVENT, AND IT WOULDN'T SHOCK ME IF THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST
OUTPUT IS TOO HIGH WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, BUT TOO LOW WITH
"FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES ON MULTIPLE DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO DWINDLE WITH SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. GUSTY, VARIABLE WINDS, HAIL, AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AT MOST TERMINALS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORMS EXIT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 71 91 76 / 40 20 10 20
HOBART OK 93 72 97 75 / 30 20 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 75 97 77 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 86 67 94 67 / 50 40 30 60
PONCA CITY OK 82 68 86 71 / 60 50 50 60
DURANT OK 91 76 92 77 / 40 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>013-015-
017>020-024>032-039>043-046>048-051-052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10
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