237
FXUS64 KOUN 031058
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
A MULTIDAY RUN OF UNSEASONABLE MID-FALL WARMTH BEGINS IN EARNEST
TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. NO CONCERN FOR FREEZING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A STEADY TO LOCALLY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY BREEZE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM "BOTTOMING OUT"
OVER THE COMING HOURS (I.E., SUNRISE LOWS IN THE 40S).
A WEAK (AND DRY) SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING, SETTLING TOWARDS THE I-40
CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON. COOLEST, YET STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM
(UPPER-60S), AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA & NORTH TEXAS, WHERE INFLUENCE FROM
AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE MORE APPARENT, PEAK
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-80S.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY SURFACE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDWEEK. BY AND LARGE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO RUN +10-20 DEGREES (70S TO LOW-80S) COMPARED TO EARLY
NOVEMBER NORMALS.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH, WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO AN EMERGING LEE CYCLONE. A PASSING SURFACE
FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW ROTATES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. FOR NOW, THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO
OFFER ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE OR SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK, WITH SOME (LOW)
POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN SHIFT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ON THURSDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR 90-DEGREES ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) OUTPUT (I.E., OUR
FORECAST) RUNS TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF MOST GUIDANCE, WITH ONLY A
<10% CHANCE FOR 90S WHEN COMPARING OVER ALL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT.
THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS OUR "HEAT WAVE" WILL BREAK DOWN BY
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A MORE ROBUST FRONT/SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS AS A
LLJ DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 78 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 49 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 49 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 51 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 50 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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