152
FXUS64 KOUN 170315
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- HEAT WAVE AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MEDIUM-HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
A BOUNDARY THAT WAS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS SLOWLY BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND IS ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE TO CHEROKEE OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
HOT BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY COMMON SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105+ ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK SO HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.
A FEW OF THE CAMS HAD BEEN SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN PARTS OF OK. THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE FROM EARLIER TODAY BUT THERE IS
STILL A LOW (10-16%) CHANCE FOR MAYBE A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN
AN AREA FROM SW TO NORTH CENTRAL OK. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP,
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE VEGETATION IN THIS AREA
IS PARTICULARLY DRY MAKING FUELS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE
STARTS/WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST
TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL HELP
CONTINUE THE PERSISTENT HEATWAVE THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105+ EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL OK AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THESE FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK (SAME AREA
AS TODAY'S ADVISORY).
SOME OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP (~10% CHANCE) IN SE PARTS OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IF THEY DEVELOP.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS MENTIONED ABOVE DUE
TO THE VERY DRY VEGETATION. UNFORTUNATELY, FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A FACTOR UNTIL THIS AREA CAN RECEIVE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE, STUBBORNLY REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FACILITATE A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO KANSAS ON SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW HOT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO NORTH/WEST OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT (MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA) WITH LOW CHANCES EXPANDING TOWARDS THE I-44
CORRIDOR.
SUNDAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE. LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT REACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY STALLS
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK CAA, INCREASED CLOUDINESS,
AND RAIN/STORMS WILL PROVIDE FOR LESS HOT TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
AREAS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80'S (NORTHERN OK) TO NEAR 100 DEGREES (SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX).
MODEL CONSENSUS IS IMPROVING FOR THESE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, AS
SHOWN BY THE SHRINKING BOXPLOT WITH THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE
(REASONABLE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES) HAVING DECREASED FROM ABOUT
10 DEGREES (I.E., A MUCH WIDER RANGE) THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS TO ABOUT
5 DEGREES DIFFERENCE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SCALE HAS TIPPED MORE IN
FAVOR OF WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN COOLER FOR SUNDAY.
THEN, A REINFORCING FRONT BRINGS ENHANCED CAA LATE SUNDAY AND THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR THE FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80'S/90'S FORECAST
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
JUST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SLOWLY BACKING INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY
DIURNAL CUMULUS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 98 75 97 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 99 75 99 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 101 74 100 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 98 73 98 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 97 74 95 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 100 75 101 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ032-042-043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
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