879
FXUS64 KOUN 071855
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
THE DAYS-OLD WEAK CIRCULATION, NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN TX, WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEASTERN OK TODAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO OK FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE PUSHED
FARTHER EAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE HEAT. LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN POSSIBLY SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
CONVECTION SPAWN BY TRANSIENT CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
SHOULD PROPAGATE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA GIVEN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTATION. THE WESTERN FLANK MAY IMPACT NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
DOWN THROUGH OUR EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT'S
WESTERN EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY HOT/DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
RESULTANT CAPPING.
THEREAFTER, RIDGING BUILDS AND PERIPHERAL MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO EAST OF OUR AREA. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OZARKS RESULTS IN CONVECTION THAT COULD CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM WITH ANOMALOUS 500-MB
HEIGHTS THURSDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD NEAR
100F/100F+ TEMPERATURES, PEAKING SATURDAY AND PUSHING 110F IN THE
WEST. HIGHER HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN PUSH US INTO A PERIOD OF
DANGEROUS HEAT. MINOR RELIEF MAY COME SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW, THOUGH MAGNITUDE OF THE RELIEF WILL BE
DICTATED BY AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION AND/OR DETAILS ON
EXPANSIVENESS AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE RH TO PARTICULARLY LOW LEVELS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, SATURDAY, AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BRB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN TX. WINDS WILL
REMAIN EAST OR SOUTHEAST MAINLY UNDER 12KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN OK FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 72 93 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 91 71 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 72 96 77 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 70 99 75 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 92 71 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 87 72 91 75 / 30 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...09
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