737
FXUS64 KOUN 162253
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
553 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEFORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES RETURNS SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH POPS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A PERSISTING CUT-OFF
LOW ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS OVER STRONG LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN LOW-END MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL DEVELOP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION OR MUCH DOWNDRAFT WINDS DUE TO WEAK DCAPE VALUES
BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD GET EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND/OR TRAINING MAINLY ACROSS OUR TEXAS COUNTIES. THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK IS MARGINAL AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE LOWER THROUGH MID-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO 90 IN A FEW AREAS WHILE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
OUR AIR HUMID & MUGGY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT WINDING DOWN ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AFTER SUNDOWN ALTHOUGH WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. & CANADA,
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL REMAIN CLOSED AND CUT-OFF IN
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
LEAST INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR SATURDAY. FOR FRIDAY
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF REGION WILL START
TIGHTENING THE ISOBARS ACROSS OUR AREA MAKING OUR SOUTH WINDS MORE
BREEZY. MEANWHILE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPANDS MORE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS (TX & OK PANHANDLES) INCREASING MOSTLY RAIN
POPS (30-40%) DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL HAVE
INCREASED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THOSE 30-40% POPS EXPANDING
INTO CENTRAL & NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS. FOR SATURDAY SOME UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH A PERSISTENT "WET" (OVER THE LAST
2 RUNS) ECMWF SOLUTION EXPANDING THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. DESI GRAND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A
CHANCE FOR A "WETTER" FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS BUT FOR NOW WILL TREND WITH THE
DRIER NBM SOLUTION WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE NAM & GFS SOLUTIONS
KEEPING THE UPPER LOW JUST TOUCHING OUR SOUTHWEST CWA. POPS WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO MAINLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WHERE AN ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMA WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A PERSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING MORE SEASONABLY
NORMAL FOR MID-JULY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH COULD
BE CENTERED OVER OR VERY NEAR THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND HOTTER FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LESS
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING OR ABOVE 105 POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE IN AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TO RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 89 72 92 / 20 30 10 10
HOBART OK 69 89 70 92 / 20 30 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 90 71 93 / 30 40 20 20
GAGE OK 68 91 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 90 74 93 / 10 30 10 0
DURANT OK 73 91 75 93 / 20 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...13
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