720
FXUS64 KOUN 102224
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
524 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- PATCHY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA / WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS TODAY AND IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN & STORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE 17-22% RANGE FOR RH (REASONABLE
WORST CASE: AS LOW AS 15%), WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME
DRYING DOWN TO AROUND 20% IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZIER TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (15 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH). ERCS ARE
HIGHEST IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA (65TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE) WHERE 30 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE LOWEST. NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IS SHOWING SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES (55TH-65TH PERCENTILE).
FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION FOR THE RFD, WHERE THE
LOWEST RH VALUES AND HIGHEST FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO ALIGN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT (HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S) AND SUNNY DAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
OUR HOT AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S). AS MOISTURE INCREASES,
LOWS WILL COME UP AS WELL, REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY
MORNING.
PATCHY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY WIND DRIVEN. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY--
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. RH'S WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, GENERALLY
STAYING ABOVE 25 PERCENT. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY ON MONDAY, BUT SLIGHTLY LESS SO (RIGHT NOW
THEY LOOK TO STAY UNDER THE THRESHOLD FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER). RH
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A TAD HIGHER, LIMITING FIRE CONCERNS. AT THAT
POINT, HEAT BECOMES THE BIGGER STORY AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES START
TO APPROACH RECORD VALUES.
DAY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEMS STILL LOOK TO BRING ABOUT MORE
CHANGEABLE WEATHER, INCLUDING THE RETURN OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES,
THOUGH FOCUSED AREAS AND TIMING REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY IS REASONABLY HIGH, WITH A LEAD WAVE
PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO INSTIGATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PROVIDED
INCREASING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING AN UNSEASONABLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING SPECIFICS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/SEVERITY OF
PRECIPITATION DROPS DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLVES
BY THIS TIME. EVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE/SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER
DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS, WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN COMPARED TO A CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE
MEAN (I.E., TAKING CONSENSUS FROM THREE PRIMARY ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS).
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU? WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
EVENTUALLY COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN SOME
CAPACITY ACROSS THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK, FORECAST SPECIFICS
(I.E., TEMPERATURES, % CHANCE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN, ETC.) MAY CHANGE
NOTABLY OVER COMING UPDATES, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK AS A MORE
UNIFIED SOLUTION BEGINS TO EMERGE.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S
AND SE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT TO THE SW AND S SUNDAY. LLWS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 65 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 65 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 64 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 65 90 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25
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