864
FXUS64 KOUN 261139
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL GIVES LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST TODAY, BUT WILL PRIMARILY STAY WEST OF
THE AREA.
- THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA TONIGHT/TUESDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE AREAWIDE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN OVER ARIZONA HAS OPENED UP AND IS
CURRENTLY EJECTING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AS HAS BEEN EXPECTED OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH NORTHWEST OF US THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THOUGH AS THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS DOES SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS, BUT THIS IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES, PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. AS DISCUSSED THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS, THERE WAS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE, BUT WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHIHUAHUA AND NORTHERN DURANGO STATES WITH
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN AREAS AROUND JIMENEZ CHIHUAHUA.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND APPROACH OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MANY MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE VORTICITY WITH THIS WAVE TODAY BEFORE MOVING TOWARD
OKLAHOMA WHICH MAY STILL BE THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN
THE MODELS. BUT WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AS WELL AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, IT MAY NOT TAKE A LOT OF FORCING TO GET CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO INCREASE. BUT SOMEWHAT EXPECT
THE FORCING TO BE WEAKER THAN SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST, AND
THEREFORE AGREE WITH WPC/NBM QPF FORECASTS THAT KEEP PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LIGHTER THAN EXPLICIT MODEL FORECASTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WILL KEEP
HIGHS TUESDAY SIMILAR OR LOWER THAN TODAY IN GENERAL, BUT MORE
SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM AGAIN BACK TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
MEAN TROUGHING PERSISTS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC LATE THIS WEEK WITH A PLUME OF HIGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE,
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SECOND WAVE IN THE MODELS,
SO TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE LESS CERTAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATER TODAY INTO WESTERN
OK AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING WWR AND CSM THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE VFR PREVAILING BUT COULD SEE
THEM APPROACH MVFR AT TIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH, GENERALLY 10-15 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS OUT WEST MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 59 74 60 / 0 20 50 0
HOBART OK 77 58 75 60 / 10 60 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 60 78 61 / 0 30 40 10
GAGE OK 74 55 73 57 / 30 70 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 58 73 58 / 0 20 30 10
DURANT OK 80 57 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
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