831
FXUS64 KOUN 221817
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
117 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
- RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS, THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD IS
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT BREAKS. THIS IS LETTING TEMPERATURES MODERATE
TOWARD NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ACCELERATING COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THAT SHOULD
ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND
POTENTIALLY ACT AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL REACH UP TO 2,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY LATE
EVENING WITH RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVELS AND ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF BULK
SHEAR. SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL UPDRAFTS, FOLLOWED BY A
COUPLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARD LATE EVENING, TO BE REPLACED BY
THE PRIMARY WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THOSE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE REGIME OF
UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THOSE STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE EVENING WHEN COLD POOLS BEGIN
TO "MERGE AND SURGE" EASTWARD. A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS (AND
PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL UP TO AN INCH OR SO) WILL EXIST PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE LACK
OF A CLASSIC PLAINS SPRINGTIME LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ACT AS A LIMIT ON
THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE HAZARDS.
DESPITE THE MEAGER LLJ, WE ANTICIPATE THAT ONE OR A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF I-35 BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A CONTINUED WELL OF 1,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, AND SMALL
HAIL/CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING/HEAVY RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE MCS(S) WILL BE DEPARTING OUR AREA AS SATURDAY BEGINS. BEHIND IT,
EXPECT A SEVERAL-HOUR WINDOW OF DRIER WEATHER WITH BREAKS IN THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. STORM
PROBABILITIES DURING THE DAY WILL BE RATHER LOW/SCATTERED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW, BUT SUFFICIENT CAM
SIGNAL EXISTS TO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW UPDRAFTS
(ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA). ANOTHER MCS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH LESS CERTAIN THAN THE ONE
TONIGHT).
MORE UNIFORM NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY, AND WE HAVE
OUR FIRST HIGHER-CONFIDENCE-IN-DRY-WEATHER PERIOD FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS, DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
LOW-TO-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-70%) ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND DECREASING
CHANCES (<40%) WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLOAT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN
THE 70S TO 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BREAK. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME
VARIABILITY. A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS SOME SIGNAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TOWARD MORNING, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 78 61 81 / 80 40 40 10
HOBART OK 59 80 59 83 / 80 40 40 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 82 61 83 / 80 40 50 10
GAGE OK 53 74 53 83 / 70 40 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 77 58 81 / 70 60 40 0
DURANT OK 65 81 65 82 / 70 60 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14
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