555
FXUS64 KOUN 031709
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY (NORTHERN OKLAHOMA) AND INCREASE LATE THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING MAINLY IN THE 95 TO 105 DEG RANGE.
DAYTIME MIXING WILL LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SOME. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS (WITH POCKETS OF EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT) HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ERC VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
THUS, THE VERY DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM 1 PM THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS OR THE PANHANDLES
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
RISE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS H850 FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD AIR TEMPERATURES OF 100 TO 103 DEG ARE EXPECTED
WITH VALUES NEAR 105 POSSIBLE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO RISE TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER RELATIVELY
LOCALIZED PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. H850 VEERED
FLOW AND DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BELOW 60
DEG BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS, AND THIS SHOULD TEMPER HEAT
INDICES SOMEWHAT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
WINDS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHIFT TO THE NNW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES AND AS THE FRONT
ENTERS THIS AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (< 20%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND FRONT. CHANCES ARE
LOW MOSTLY BECAUSE OF HIGH CLOUD BASES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM ANY VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS. THE FRONT
LIFTS INTO KANSAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE HOT, WITH
WIDESPREAD READINGS NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 109 POSSIBLE. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES ANOTHER RUN FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO 30% ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
40% ON THURSDAY, AND AT LEAST 60% ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. MEDIUM PROBABILITIES
(TO NEAR 40%) EXTEND TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED FOR THURSDAY, AS WELL, AS INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND IN POPS, IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT UNCERTAINTY
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS ALSO INCREASING ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY,
AND MAY CONTINUE TO TREND THAT WAY IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLD OR
INCREASE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SETUP HAS AN INHERENT RISK OF LEADING
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES (E.G., FRONTAL
LOCATION, TIMING, AND RAIN CHANCES) ARE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO SAY
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
OTHER THAN LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND (PRIMARILY SATURDAY), SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 74 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 104 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 101 71 101 / 0 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 71 100 75 100 / 0 0 20 20
DURANT OK 72 101 75 101 / 0 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...13
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