223
FXUS64 KOUN 241129
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PERRYTON THROUGH
BEAVER COUNTY OKLAHOMA UP TOWARD DODGE CITY AND HAYS KS. LOOKING
AT OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS
AROUND 500 MB WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW. KDDC REPORTING NO
CLOUDS AT 12,000 FEET OR LOWER WHILE UNDERNEATH THESE ECHOES ALSO
INDICATE VERY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH RAIN LIKELY EVAPORATING AS
VIRGA WELL BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN IF THIS AREA OF RADAR
ECHOES SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW (5 PERCENT OR LESS).
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE OZARKS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA/
ARIZONA/NEVADA BORDER REGION. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE
LOWER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS, ONCE WE GET
CLOSER TO AN EVENT THE MODELS TRENDS ARE LATER ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER (IN GENERAL) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE 00Z MODELS NOW OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND SWING THE TROUGH NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE DAKOTAS AS OPPOSED TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT
YESTERDAY'S RUNS SHOWED. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS MODELS
KEEP THE ENTIRE QPF SIGNAL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 9Z MONDAY AND CONFINE THE QPF TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
FIRST WAVE THROUGH MONDAY. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE QPF OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER A LITTLE EARLIER, BUT ALSO DOES NOT EXTEND RAIN
CHANCES VERY FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A SECONDARY WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE DEVELOPMENT
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS A BIT UNCLEAR WITH IT
SEEMINGLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPS AS PROJECTED,
IT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES
AND MOVES OVER THE AREA. BUT EVEN WITH THIS, RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
UNLIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
IF WE DO SEE THIS SECONDARY WAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, IT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THERE IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK, AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ONLY
SHOWS ROUGHLY A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FROM
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT YESTERDAY'S 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN SHOWED. SO IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL BE IN A PATTERN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
AUTUMN-LIKE AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AND WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OVER 10,000
FT AND SOLIDLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 59 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 79 60 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 60 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 56 76 55 / 10 0 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 80 56 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 84 57 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page