733
FXUS64 KOUN 211118
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
618 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- RECORD HEAT LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES TODAY & SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ON
SUNDAY NEAR AND BEHIND A FRONT.
- AFTER "NOT AS HOT" TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, HOTTER TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH NIL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AT
LEAST THE NEXT 6 DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
HEAT:
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S AREAWIDE WITH SOME LOCAL TRIPLE-
DIGITS IN THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURES MATCHED OR BROKEN AGAIN TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER:
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
DRIVEN BY LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY VEGETATION. THE WINDS WILL NOT
BE TOO STRONG, BUT WE WILL SEE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH,
MAINLY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH) AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM INSTEAD OF HOT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY MORNING
AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING. AND THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
OPPOSED TO OUR RECENT 25-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A
QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT ANY LOCATION ON
SUNDAY AS RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER WITH THE FRONT.
WITH THIS FASTER TIME, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE
LOWER NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.
AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE LOWEST HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE VEERED SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, PRIMARILY IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BUT
ALSO EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH
SOME GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY (AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-15 PERCENT), AS WELL AS INITIALLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE AND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT RH RECOVERY.
THE WIND SHIFT TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS WILL BE A SAFETY ISSUE FOR
ANY FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS AGAINST ANY WILDFIRES THAT WILL HAVE
DEVELOPED BEFORE THE WIND SHIFT. FIRE CREWS SHOULD BE VERY MINDFUL
OF THIS EXPECTED WIND SHIFT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR
SUNDAY, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OR ALL OF THIS WATCH WILL BE
CONVERTED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IN LATER SHIFTS.
BY MONDAY, MODERATE EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS (10-15 MPH) ARE EXPECTED,
BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL NOT AS LOW IN THE AFTERNOON KEEPING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MORE IN CHECK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
HEAT RETURNS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED.
THE MODERATE TEMPERATURES OF MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AGAIN
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITES STATES AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, THEN SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE
MODELS OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT (GIVE
OR TAKE) THAT COULD BRING SOMEWHAT LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO SOME OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT & VARIABLE THROUGH 18Z THEN START
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 18-01Z UP TO 10 KTS ACROSS
MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. HOWEVER THE TWO OUTLIERS WILL BE TERMINALS
KCSM & KWWR IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE TIGHTER PRODUCING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS GUSTING
15-20 KTS. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY 06Z THEN STRENGTHENING BY 11Z. AS A RESULT, LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 66 88 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 97 60 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 63 97 53 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 96 58 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 95 61 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 90 64 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004>042-044>046-050.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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