668
FXUS64 KOUN 180004
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019
DISCUSSION
AVIATION
APART FROM THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CSM THIS EVENING, VFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH WIND ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 182400.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE NOW USUAL
SPOTTY AND UNCERTAIN RAIN CHANCES, AS WELL AS HEAT CONCERNS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING PULSE TYPE CHARACTERISTICS, WITH HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A PSUEDO-DRYLINE IS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLES. SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING >70F DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EAST OF
THE DRIER AIRMASS (>2000 J/KG CAPE) IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE AIRMASS BOUNDARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF PRECIP, HEAT CONTINUES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE LONGER THAN EXPECTED LINGERING OF RAIN IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WILL REDUCE THE HEAT IMPACTS, AND CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS ALONG A 700MB MOISTURE AXIS WILL ACT TO CONTAIN ANY EXCESSIVE
HEAT IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS RELIEF SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM
AND LONG RANGE MODELS ON THE SETUP AND THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, HOWEVER THERE IS CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF IT'S PRESENCE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THESE DAYS. WEDNESDAY ONWARD, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN US, WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD. THIS SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
ZWINK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 101 77 101 / 30 10 10 10
HOBART OK 78 107 77 106 / 40 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 105 79 104 / 20 10 10 0
GAGE OK 74 103 71 104 / 30 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 97 75 98 / 30 10 20 10
DURANT OK 77 100 78 100 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-037>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.
06/09/09
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