247
FXUS64 KOUN 271830
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE, PRECIP HAS ENDED AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OF THE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SOME DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS, POSSIBLY MULTIPLE
LAYERS, WILL LIKELY KEEP US FROM COMPLETE SUNSHINE. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT, A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING BETWEEN 850MB
AND 700MB, WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT. SO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SHOULD START THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO PICK
UP DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35MPH BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE AREA
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANTICIPATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WHICH MAY TEMPER SOME AREAS A DEGREE OR TWO.
EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER(OKC..68, WICHITA FALLS...73, LAWTON...72).
ANOTHER VERY MILD MORNING THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
80S.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL
APPROACH THE RED RIVER BY AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTH
OKLAHOMA(20-30%). RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT(60-80%).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US HELPS DIRECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
VANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
AREA CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SOME RAIN (POPS >60% FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT) ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR SOUTHWEST/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 50-70% ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX BUT TAPER OFF TO ONLY ABOUT 10-20%
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY ON SATURDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SHOW AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE BUT AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE AREA. DEPENDING HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY
RAIN, AND/OR HIGH WINDS IF THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE MODEL SOLUTIONS COME
TO FRUITION.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 81 63 83 / 10 0 0 10
HOBART OK 61 81 61 82 / 10 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 84 63 83 / 0 10 0 40
GAGE OK 57 80 57 82 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 83 62 84 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 59 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page