352  
FXUS64 KOUN 211932  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
232 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
   
..NEW LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT.  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WAA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG  
WITH SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FA WHICH COULD AID IN THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS EARLY FRIDAY.  
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER  
WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY RANGING FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS  
ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ON SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD  
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL A COLD SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOW TO MID  
60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WITH SOME  
ORTHOGONALITY TO THE BOUNDARY SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR  
SUPERCELLS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE SUGGEST THAT ALL HAZARDS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS, EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A MID-LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT, HOWEVER, WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE  
WAVE, WHICH COULD DICTATE THE DYNAMICS AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON  
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS OF RIGHT NOW MODELS  
ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS EARLY  
AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT,  
DEPENDING ON THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL, TIMING, AND COVERAGE.  
 
ASIDE FROM STORMS IN THE LONG TERM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE  
TO END OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE FALL-LIKE.  
 
BUNKER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY  
SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
UPPER AIR
 
 
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 76 61 82 / 10 20 0 0  
HOBART OK 52 81 61 86 / 10 20 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 83 61 87 / 10 10 0 0  
GAGE OK 46 80 58 86 / 10 10 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 45 76 57 83 / 0 10 30 10  
DURANT OK 51 79 59 84 / 10 10 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...25  
LONG TERM....13  
AVIATION...25  
 
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