331
FXUS64 KOUN 101130
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE,
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX, THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE FA. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO HEATING, ALTHOUGH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THEN MAY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN TX.
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
DETERMINISTIC ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE/CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LITTLE
VARIATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE BEGINS TO BE SOME VARIATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH COULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE
AREA, AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME.
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER HIGH ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCING THE REGION, HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RELATIVELY EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO RAPIDLY
DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD FURTHER
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MORE/MOST OF THE FA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT THAT THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NW/NNW FLOW, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. IF
THIS PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS, THE RETURN OF THE TRIPLE DIGITS COULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED WITH CLOUDS AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WHEN/IF THE SHORTWAVES
AFFECT THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYTIME.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
NORTHWEST OF KSPS THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS CONVECTION
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, WHICH COULD ALSO AFFECT KSPS. ANY
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD HAVE GUSTY, CHAOTIC WINDS.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 68 94 69 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 98 70 98 71 / 20 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 73 98 73 / 30 10 10 0
GAGE OK 94 64 95 66 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 96 66 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 96 71 95 71 / 30 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
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