066
FXUS64 KOUN 211753
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS HOT.
- AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AFFECTING FOARD
AND KNOX COUNTIES AND ADJACENT AREAS. WE COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT, SUCH AS ONE SMALL THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT NEAR ANADARKO, BUT THE CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE CENTENNIAL
STATE ARE PUSHING EAST INTO KANSAS AND MAY DRIFT INTO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNRISE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL
OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS LAST WEEK WITH THE FRONT, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE NBM
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE SKEWED TOWARD A WARMER BIAS-CORRECTED
FORECAST SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SO HOT RECENTLY, BUT THIS
RECENT BIAS IS LIKELY NOT FULLY APPLICABLE TO THIS NEW AIRMASS, SO
HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST MAXES FROM NBM TO BE CLOSER TO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS AND WE REMAIN IN THIS NOT-AS-HOT POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. BUT
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA, THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DO NOT LOOK AS COOL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODELS WOULD HAVE
SUGGESTED AND HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S, ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN, THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO PLAINS DRIFTING
EAST AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. BUT WITH THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA, CONVECTION
WOULD NOT LIKELY MOVE VERY FAR EAST INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE ZONAL. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 80S TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. ONE OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK BETWEEN TERMINALS
KPNC & KSWO BUT PERHAPS CLOSER TO KSWO WHERE A TEMPO IS IN PLACE
THROUGH 21Z ALTHOUGH A LOWER PROBABILITY IMPACTING KPNC. LOWERED
CEILINGS FROM STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR REDUCING
THOSE TERMINALS TO AN MVFR CATEGORY. OTHERWISE AFTER 21Z ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z.
AFTER 12Z STRATUS PRODUCING LOWERING CEILINGS MAY RETURN IMPACTING
SOME OF OUR TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 86 62 87 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 66 88 64 89 / 20 20 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 91 66 92 / 20 20 10 20
GAGE OK 60 83 60 84 / 10 10 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 60 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 68 93 68 93 / 10 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
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