836
FXUS64 KOUN 071743
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TODAY. DESPITE THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER
THE PLAINS, THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA, AND AREAS WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, THE
CONVECTION YESTERDAY AND INTO THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED WITH A VERY UNFORTUNATE MINIMUM IN THE
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN IN OKC/NORMAN, OR MORE BROADLY IN
THE RINGLING TO OKC TO STILLWATER TO PONCA CITY CORRIDOR. GIVEN
THESE TRENDS, HAVE LOWERED POPS IN SOME AREAS FROM THE NBM POPS
FOR TODAY. THINGS ARE ALSO COMPLICATED WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. BUT EVEN IN AREAS WITH LESS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OUR HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES -
AS WE SAW LAST EVENING IN THE WEATHERFORD AREA. THEREFORE AM
RELUCTANT TO TRIM THE WATCH TOO MUCH AT THIS POINT WITH SUCH HIGH
PW VALUES OVER THE AREA. HAVE AT LEAST TRIMMED THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE WATCH, AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO REMOVE SOME MORE
COUNTIES LATER IN THIS SHIFT. THE DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE
TO TRIM MORE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
IN GENERAL, THE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. WITH THAT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN
THE WEST, BUT SIMILAR HIGHS TO YESTERDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PUSH THE CONVECTION EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH, UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND WE WILL
SEE THE RETURN OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGING EVEN ON
MONDAY NOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE WHEAT BELT OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HEIGHTS ACTUALLY DECREASE A LITTLE ON TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY COMPARED
TO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE WHEAT BELT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID WEEK.
BUT WITH SUNNY SKIES, ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROJECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY
DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
RAINFALL IS GENERALLY DONE WITH AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KDUA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. EVEN THIS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MFVR AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE STUBBORNLY PREVAILED
MUCH LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL BE RISING
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MFVR CEILINGS AT LEAST WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT, AS MOST OF THE AREA IS FAIRLY WELL SATURATED.
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE RED RIVER, MAINLY AT THE KSPS,
KDUA, OR KLAW AIRPORTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20%, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT CAN AND WILL UPDATE IF/WHEN A BETTER SIGNAL
SHOWS UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 93 75 92 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 98 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 102 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 92 77 94 / 40 20 10 0
DURANT OK 76 91 77 91 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...21
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