843
FXUS64 KOUN 031724
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- OUR HEATWAVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A LINE OF
ELEVATED RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD DIMINISHING AS THE
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FUELING IT STARTS DECREASING.
SURFACE MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS STRONG WITH A PSEUDO DRYLINE
GRADIENT FURTHER WEST OVER THE LAST 24-HOURS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OK PANHANDLES WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOW IN UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS FROM WEST TO EAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS MUGGY HOT
AIR WILL RESULT IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN IN AREAS WHERE THE AIR TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS. PRESSURE HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COMBINED WITH
CLOUD COVER COMING UP FROM EASTERN TEXAS MAY KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FROM GOING TRIPLE DIGIT GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A CLOSED UPPER LOW
REMNANTS OF "EDOUARD" OVER EASTERN TEXAS WAS INCREASING DENSE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW LONG
IT WILL LAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON? BOTH NAM & HRRR IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT START SCATTERING THE
CLOUD COVER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SCATTERING TO FEW CLOUD
COVER COULD IMPACT SOLAR HEATING EAST OF I-35 AND START INCREASING
HEAT INDICES IN THIS LOWER 70S DEWPOINT AIR. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY IN AREAS WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 105
DEGREES AND MONITOR OUR SOUTHEAST FOR CLOUD COVER & HEAT INDICES
SHOULD OUR CURRENT ADVISORY NEED TO BE EXPANDED. AS FAR AS ANY
RAIN, WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% STORM POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON COMING UP FROM EASTERN TEXAS
(EDOUARD'S REMNANTS). THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACTIVITY FIRING UP ON THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BUT MOST
LIKELY SHOULD NOT IMPACT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
OUR UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. AND THE SECOND TROUGH OVER
THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL ONE-
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. OF COURSE RIDGING REMAINS STRONGEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN INLAND U.S. WHERE THE HEATWAVE IS
PERSISTING. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER THE RIDGING WITH OUR
HEATWAVE AND DRY HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORIES DUE TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-109 DEGREES
ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA WILL BE NEEDED BOTH DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTING ONLY UP TO SCATTERED CU ACROSS
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH PRESSURE HEIGHTS FROM THE
RIDGE INCREASING FROM OUT OF THE EAST AND HOTTER ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-35. WILL HAVE A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INCLUDING ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PORTIONS OF WESTERN &
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110F RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MEAN THAT HEAT HEADLINES (MOST
LIKELY HEAT ADVISORIES) WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY MUCH NEED RAINFALL INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER THE VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES
SO EVERYONE NEEDS TO TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THIS MORNING'S STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-35 IS
BEGINNING TO DEVOLVE INTO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THESE BASES LOW, AND THE OCCASIONAL
MVFR REPORT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT DUA. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN A VERY SIMILAR
LOCATION TO WHERE IT OCCURRED TODAY. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
FROM NEAR THE DUE SOUTHEAST.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 103 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 101 72 100 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 72 97 72 99 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
017>020-022>027-033>039-044-045.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>020-023>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04
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