814
FXUS64 KOUN 211757
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- TURNING COOLER TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SOME LINGERING PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INTO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BRINGING THE RAIN TO AN END. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS LINGERING MUCH PAST SUNRISE, IF IT LAST THAT
LONG.
OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY DRY SLOT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE IN THE WAY
OF SUNSHINE, AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY AID IN
KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD
LATE MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLER AIR IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S TODAY.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A COOLER NIGHT THAN WE'VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
MOST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S WITH A SOME MID/UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY, MAKING FOR A MORE SEASONAL DAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA DRY IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO EJECT EAST/NORTHEAST BRINGING SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT BEGIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THIS LAST ONE AND ONCE IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST DOES SO
FAIRLY QUICKLY. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE HEAVIER AMOUNTS BEING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MUCH LIKE THIS CURRENT
STORM SYSTEM A RATHER IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPTION AS
MENTIONED ABOVE BEING PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SOME POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS TO PICK UP ANOTHER 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN.
RAIN CHANCES END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN THE STORM SYSTEMS WAKE. AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THEN SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
PLUNGING SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT MAKING WEDNESDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SETTING OVERHEAD. SOME AREAS
MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID/LOWER 50S.
MANY LOCATIONS MAY SEE ANOTHER FREEZE THANKSGIVING MORNING WITH
DECENT RECOVERY DURING THE DAY WITH 50S AREA-WIDE WITH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS OUR TERMINALS PRODUCING
A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10-15 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KTS. THE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AN OVERCAST STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS AROUND 010 TO 020 FT
WILL REDUCE TERMINALS KOKC, KOUN, KSWO, AND KPNC TO AN MVFR
CATEGORY BEHIND THE FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH 12-16Z WHILE TERMINAL
KWWR MAY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z. ALL OTHER TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 43 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 65 40 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 43 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 54 36 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 62 43 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 46 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page