777
FXUS64 KOUN 111758
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY.
- WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK. NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
SHORT TERM FOCUS IS STILL ON THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY. WENT BELOW NBM FORECAST DEWPOINTS AS MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY. THE FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
GIVE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF PROJECTED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA, WITH THE
FUELS BEING MOST PROBLEMATIC IN THE SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THEREFORE KEEP WINDS A BIT LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT NOT PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE WARM WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD
THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY, AND WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS AND HUMIDITY DO NOT PUSH THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST INTO THE
ELEVATED CATEGORY, BUT THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH OVER THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A JOLT TO THE PATTERN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE DOMINANT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS IMPINGED UPON BY A TROUGH COMING ASHORE ON THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL SHOVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD TOWARD AND BEYOND OUR
CWA. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR US? WELL, IN A WORD: HEAT. 80-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS PLACES LIKE GAGE OR
STILLWATER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN - NOT ENOUGH TO
BRING OUT THE PHRASE "HEAT INDICES" (AND HOW WILD IS IT TO EVEN BE
CONSIDERING THAT IN MID-NOVEMBER?), BUT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE GREATER
FIRE DANGER EVEN WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE, IF ANYTHING, ADDED TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, AS THEY
LOOK TO BE LEANING TOWARD A LONG-LIVED CUTOFF LOW SOLUTION. THESE
CUTOFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN
THE REALM OF QPF. A FEW TRENDS ACROSS MULTIPLE SUITES OF ENSEMBLES
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME NEAR-SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG A PACIFIC FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS A
TREND FOR THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/HIGHEST QPFS OVER THE WEEKEND
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE A
COOLDOWN (AT LEAST RELATIVE TO THIS WEEK) FOR A FEW DAYS.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN DROP OFF THIS EVENING. LIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE SKY.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 40 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 43 74 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 71 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 39 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 45 74 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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