002
FXUS64 KOUN 081833
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- ONGOING HEATWAVE CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES AND LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAT TRIES TO REBOUND THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 F ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT, SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER (UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S). FOR REFERENCE, THE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR OKC THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS 65 F. OUR EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY MORNING
IS LIKELY TO BE 10-15 F ABOVE NORMAL.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
UNFORTUNATELY, WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 F RANGE. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM 12PM - 7 PM. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THE
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING UP TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN GETTING THE
PREVIOUS MONTH AND A HALF. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE A
50-70% CHANCE OF NOT EXCEEDING 90 F ON THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40, IT WILL REALLY
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONT CAN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. MOST GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER, A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF UP TO 1 INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS, ANY RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN!
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN A REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES. INTERQUARTILE RANGES
SUGGEST 90S TO LOWER 100S (WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FARTHER
SOUTH). TARGETED HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, BUT WIDESPREAD
ADVISORIES LOOK UNLIKELY.
THE RIDGE LEAVES ROOM FOR A FEW SHORTWAVES TO RIDE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY, KEEPING 10-30% CHANCES FOR RAIN IN OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FEW DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT AN OVERNIGHT MCS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.
BEYOND SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INTERQUARTILE
SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES AS
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
WARMER SOLUTIONS (DUE TO STRONGER RIDGING) APPEAR TO BE THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO, BUT ALTERNATE SCENARIOS (10-20% PROBABILITY)
COULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL COOLING (HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AREAWIDE).
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. VERY LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OK, WHERE PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT KDUA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 101 74 88 / 0 0 60 80
HOBART OK 78 103 75 94 / 0 0 40 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 103 76 98 / 0 0 0 50
GAGE OK 76 102 68 90 / 0 30 80 60
PONCA CITY OK 78 102 70 87 / 0 20 90 50
DURANT OK 76 101 75 98 / 0 0 0 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
010>013-015>020-022>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08
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