467
FXUS64 KOUN 281651
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
- LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MID-WEEK
- NEAR-RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THIS WEEK
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
WITH NEAR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING OKC. RECORD WARM LOW FOR JUNE 28TH AT OKC IS 78 DEG, WHICH
WAS SET IN 1986...AND THIS WILL SET THE TONE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS DEPICTED BY A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR BREEZY RETURN FLOW AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70'S (PARTIALLY AIDED BY
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS). H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AS THE LLTR SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES, AND RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY. THE
RESULTING HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 105 DEGREES
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. FORTUNATELY, HEAT STRESS
WILL BE MITIGATED TO AN EXTENT BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE DRYLINE WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE 100TH MERIDIAN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FEATURE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POPS REMAIN VERY LOW AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS WEST OF OUR FA.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
LLTR WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE A BIT LOWER IN THE SHORT TERM COMPARED TO TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RISE TO 20% PERCENT FOR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVENINGS, WITH GREATER CHANCES
REMAINING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN NEAR-RECORD WARM LOW TERRITORY
IN THE SHORT TERM. RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES TO BEAT:
JUNE 29 JUNE 30 JULY 1
OKLAHOMA CITY: 78 (1998) 80 (1980) 76 (1993)
LAWTON: 79 (2024) 81 (2024) 76 (1999)
WICHITA FALLS: 81 (2011) 81 (1980) 83 (1980)
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUES WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS END OF NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT LEAST 105 DEGREES
FORECAST TO RETURN TO A FEW LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
BY SATURDAY. THE GFS & EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING OF JULY 4TH FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, BUT THE ENSEMBLE BLEND KEEP CHANCES VERY LOW FOR NOW.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
GUSTY S TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE BUT REMAIN BREEZY
TONIGHT FROM THE SE THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE S AND SW MONDAY
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN W AND SW OF THE TAF SITES
BUT GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS COULD AFFECT ONE OF THESE
TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 100 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 101 80 100 79 / 0 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 94 79 94 79 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
017>020.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25
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