547
FXUS64 KOUN 042309
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
509 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS THE BASE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, AS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THROUGH THE
AREA. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH PEAK
HEATING, SO MAY ONLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EVEN THEN, WE WILL BE STILL NEAR NORMAL
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON,
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH WEAKER SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THERE IS
A SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. AS OF RIGHT NOW, DOESN'T APPEAR THAT
THE SIGNAL IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG, BUT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED NONETHELESS.
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE AREA, ATTENDANT TO THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. WELL- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
OUR WARMING TREND PEAKS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. OUR RIDGING STARTS WEAKENING SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH STARTS DIGGING AND FORMING A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ITS UPPER
LOW CLOSING & CUTTING OFF OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE A SEPARATE SYSTEM IN THE POLAR JET MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY. WITH ONLY TEMPERATE PACIFIC AIR BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONT, WILL
ONLY SEE A COOLDOWN OF JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM SATURDAY. OUR
WARMING TREND WILL EXTEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE A
"WET" TREND DUE TO THE WARM CUTOFF SYSTEM EXPELLING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. WITH
INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DESTABILIZATION & POTENTIAL WEAK CONVECTION NEAR
OUR SOUTHERN CWA. GUIDANCE ALSO DIFFERS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STALLED SYSTEM WITH A FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION LIFTING IT INTO TEXAS
AND CLOSER TO US ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CURRENTLY, MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
AND/OR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN THIS SAME AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT
NOT ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING BREEZY AND WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 31 66 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 69 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 32 70 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 27 68 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 26 63 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 32 66 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...14
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