576
FXUS64 KOUN 061835
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING ENDED UP A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND HAVE LED TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HAS
LIMITED HEATING IN THESE AREAS AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA CAN BE MET ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
OK. FARTHER SOUTH, GREATER INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
ONCE AGAIN SOAR TO NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES OVER
105.
MORNING CLOUDS/SHOWERS HAVE ALSO LED TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OK REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH/WEST.
PROBABLY THE GREATEST RELATIVE CHANCE FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE SOUTH/WEST FRINGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD, WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW COULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED
BROAD 20-30% POPS FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO IN
PLACE. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS COLLAPSE. SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS, BUT EXPECT STORM INTENSITY TO WANE WITH TIME THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT TO SEE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WEAKENS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED ALONG
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND/OR CENTRAL OK DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER 100 ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN NORTH-CENTRAL OK WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
WEAK FRONT SIMULTANEOUSLY DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER
CONDITIONS AND LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SATURDAY COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
WITH HIGHS 100-105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST. MOSTLY HOT AND DRY, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OCCASIONALLY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN EARLY IN THE WEEK
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK BUT
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-40. CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW (20-30%)
BUT LOW ENOUGH, AT LEAST AT TIMES, TO CURRENTLY NOT HAVE A
MENTION IN SOME OF THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH ALTHOUGH SHIFTING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY(IES).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 101 76 100 75 / 10 20 20 20
HOBART OK 103 76 103 75 / 0 0 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 103 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 100 73 102 70 / 20 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 99 74 97 73 / 40 40 40 20
DURANT OK 101 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
017>020-024>032-039>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ018>020-
023>032-035>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-
090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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