928
FXUS64 KOUN 210829
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
229 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
- NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES.
- NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND IT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS A
DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY GETS REPLACED BY A MEDIUM-AMPLITUDE RIDGE. FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS FALL THERE IS AN ACTUAL WELL OF COLD AIR TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SO WITH WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING
TO NORTHERLY WE MIGHT SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES HANG OUT AROUND WHERE
THEY WERE YESTERDAY. NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY IS EXPECTED.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH FROST POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE AND AT
LEAST PATCHY FREEZING CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL WORK EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHILE
ATTAINING A POSITIVE TILT UNTIL IT BENDS BACK FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TOWARD OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MIGHT
CREEP BACK INTO THE PICTURE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA. WITH THAT, TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST DAY OF OUR
WEEKEND MODERATING TREND. STILL NO PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW OR
TOMORROW NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER LOOKS MINIMAL.
WE'LL BE FULLY INTO RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
MAX APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH BACK TO
THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE STANCHED BY THE EXTENSIVE RECENT RAINFALLS CREATING UNFAVORABLE
FUELS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE
ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA, SO LOWS WILL INCREASE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO OUR WEST. DEWPOINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE
INTO THE MID-50S, WHICH WILL ALLOW EFFICIENT MIXING/WARMING. HIGHS
IN THE RED RIVER REGION MIGHT BUMP UP AGAINST 80 WITH UPPER 60S TO
70S ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT
SHOULD DROP HIGHS BACK TO AROUND NORMAL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WITHOUT MOISTURE, THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AGAIN. AFTER THAT, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOSH BACK AND FORTH A
FEW TIMES NEXT WEEK. WE LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ONTO THE DRY SIDE, SO
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WIND WILL TEND TO BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BUT COULD BE VARIABLE
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY BUT
REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 59 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 36 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 56 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 52 30 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 64 36 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...08
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