925
FXUS64 KOUN 050348
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
- LOW RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THIS FOURTH OF JULY. THE
NORMAN (OUN) WEATHER BALLOON DATA HAD AN OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 2.20", WHICH IS A DAILY RECORD FOR 12Z PER THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
AS A RESULT, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAINFALL GIVEN THE LIMITED SIZE OF THE
SHOWERS, BUT IF YOU HAPPEN TO GET A SHOWER, BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. WITH A RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVEL (~16,000 FT) AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION, MOST SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. NEVERTHELESS, IF A SHOWER DOES BECOME TALL
ENOUGH, THERE WILL BE AN ATTENDANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
THREAT.
THE MIX OF SUN OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S DEG F. SOME LOCATIONS NEAR
THE RED RIVER COULD REACH 90 DEG F WITH SUFFICIENT SUN BREAKING
THROUGH THE CLOUDS.
COVERAGE OF ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT REMNANT SHOWERS/STORMS MAY APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
LATE TONIGHT (NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT). NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY.
BY LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD SUNRISE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
TANDEM WITH THE 925/850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET. THE CHANCE LOOKS LOWER
THAN THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, IT
SEEMS REASONABLE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED
AIR MASS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE, BUT THEY'LL STILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE 1.75".
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRIMARILY DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE DOES SEEM TO BE MORE
LIMITED THAN PAST DAYS GIVEN THE LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING. THERE IS ALSO
CHANCE REMNANT CONVECTION MAY APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS/STORMS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED TO WIDESPREAD WHERE EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN, SO THERE
SHOULD DEFINITELY BE DRY PERIODS THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S DEG F THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
BY NEXT WEEK, A ~596 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S., WHICH WILL PLACE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS--ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA--AS THIS IS A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND/OR REMNANT HIGH
PLAINS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IN ADDITION, RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (E.G., 850 MB TEMPERATURES) WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HOTTER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 90S DEG F) FOR
JULY. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST,
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNLIKELY (E.G., WIDESPREAD 100S
DEG F). EVEN SO, GIVEN THE HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE, HEAT INDICES
MAY REACH THE LOW TO MID-100S DEG F ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY THE
STRENGTH OF ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES (E.G., A STRONGER COMPLEX
THAT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH MAY RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES).
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025
MOST OF THE EVENING PRECIP HAS ENDED, HOWEVER LINE OF STORMS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT
AND WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR A FEW HOURS AT WWR. OTHERWISE,
ANTICIPATE MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG
THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT CSM. THESE CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE RISING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MAINLY AT 12KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 85 70 88 / 20 20 10 20
HOBART OK 70 87 69 90 / 10 20 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 86 71 88 / 20 20 10 20
GAGE OK 68 89 68 91 / 20 10 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 71 87 70 90 / 10 20 20 30
DURANT OK 73 90 72 92 / 30 20 10 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page