809
FXUS64 KOUN 011722
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- HOT, MUGGY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- EXCESSIVE HEATING WILL RETURN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
- A WETTER TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO
NEAR 100 ALONG THE RED RIVER. A PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE CLOUD COVER INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER THERE (PLUS, THE SHADE HELPS IN ITSELF). ADDITIONALLY,
BREEZY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WETBULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAT INDICES GET TO NEAR
105 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
WBGT INTO THE HIGH CATEGORY. FOR THOSE LOOKING AT MODEL GUIDANCE
(ESPECIALLY NBM), THERE'S BEEN A PRETTY CONSISTENT HIGH BIAS IN MAXT
AND LOW BIAS IN TD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT WE'VE CORRECTED FOR
IN OUR FORECAST.
STORMS WILL MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT,
THOUGH NEARLY ALL THE CAMS KILL THEM OFF BEFORE THEY CROSS THE
BORDER. GOING WITH ~10% CHANCE POPS FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
HEAT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MUCH THE SAME PATTERN
AS THE NEAR TERM. WE DO SEE HEAT INDICES TICK UP SLIGHTLY EACH DAY,
AND IT'S WORTH NOTING THE CLOUD COVER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD EACH
DAY (BY FRIDAY, NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA CLOUDY). WINDS ALSO START TO GRADUALLY DROP OFF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER WBGTS. AS
MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM, MODEL BIASES IN THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN CORRECTED FOR.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED
SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS, DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WITH OUR 2-DAY HEATING TREND PEAKING ON
SATURDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY. NBM MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM WITH SATURDAYS
TEMPERATURES AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BUT WILL STILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT PLUS HEAT INDICES AND A POTENTIAL HEAT
ADVISORY DUE TO EXCESSIVE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA UNTIL
SUNDOWN. EXPECTING THE SURFACE ISOBARS TO WEAKEN A BIT BY SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT IT'S NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WINDY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH SHOULD NOT SPOIL
ANY FESTIVITIES AT DUSK. RAIN/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY BUT MOST LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
THE MAIN JET STREAM STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS THEN STALLING OUT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING STORMS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY START BREAKING DOWN IN SPOTS ON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE STORM POPS EVERY DAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE BEST TIMING FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND TO A WETTER PATTERN ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
RELIEF FROM SATURDAYS EXCESSIVE HEATING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF A HIGH CLOUDS
(WEST & CENTRAL) AND AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENINGTIME CONVECTION MAY
APPROACH TERMINALS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IN LONGEVITY PRECLUDES ADDITION OF PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS UPDATE.
SOME RESIDUAL GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN IF
STORMS DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THIS AREA NEAR AND AFTER
SUNSET.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 92 73 98 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09
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