250
FXUS64 KOUN 270351
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION BENEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FOSTER THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME
HEATING LATER IN THE MORNING WILL HELP TO MIX THE FOG OUT BY LATE
MORNING.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECASTED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES BELOW 20%, COULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST OK. FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE EVENING. PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THESE AREAS, COUPLED WITH MUCAPE VALUES
UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG, COULD ALLOW FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL. AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST OK.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
~50 KNOTS, A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER, HAIL WILL BE THE HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE CORES.
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY VEER, SO CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE SOME FOG MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, INSENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL
ZONE MAY RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, A NOTICEABLY
COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S DEG F. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLOSED-LOW AS IT EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS ARE MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER WHILE
OTHERS ARE MORE CLOSED/SLOWER/STRONGER. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN LOW
TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN. ONE ISSUE IS BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS (I.E., DRIER SOLUTIONS), THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM IS COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.
OPTED TO TRENDED WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES THAN NBM. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE STILL SOME LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVEN WITH THE
WARMER SOLUTION. THEREFORE, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE PROFILE IS FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION, OPTED TO MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES EVEN FURTHER BY THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHEN THE NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW,
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH DAYS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE-AVERAGE (60S
DEG F) DURING THE PERIOD.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 38 66 41 / 0 0 20 10
HOBART OK 57 36 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 42 68 45 / 0 0 20 10
GAGE OK 61 31 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 53 32 67 38 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 56 43 66 52 / 20 0 60 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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