688
FXUS64 KOUN 161152
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
552 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AFTERNOON WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY DRY WHICH TYPICALLY OCCURS WITH FRONT IN NOVEMBER, SO HEATING
MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON CU ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE,
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY, SO NO RECORD HIGHS ARE
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND UPPER 50 TO NEAR 60
DEGREE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW, BUT STILL MAY RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY, DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30+MPH. SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE NEED RECORD HEAT MONDAY AFTERNOON (AGAIN), BUT
IT'S UNCLEAR IF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AREA. IT WILL BE
A BREEZY ELSEWHERE, BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS IT WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHER HALF OF OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY WITH NEAR-RECORD/RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE WESTERN GULF, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODEL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY, BUT MOST SUGGEST DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL
NOT OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR A RISK OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. PW VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR MID NOVEMBER. THIS
WILL CERTAINLY RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL/HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A SUBSEQUENT
RISK OF FLOODING. JET DYNAMICS AND THE POTENTIAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS
WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
IT'S POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE MID-LEVEL DRYING WITH BETTER RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES MOVING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
DAY SATURDAY WILL BE DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS,
BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 51 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 76 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 52 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 82 66 84 / 10 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26
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