191
FXUS64 KOUN 191716
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- HEAT WAVE AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY. THEN FINALLY
SOME RELIEF ON THE WAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT/SUNDAY, BRINGING MEDIUM-HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ONE LAST AREAWIDE HOT DAY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 104 OR SO. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 105 TODAY, SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY TODAY. BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, THE WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE RISK WILL BE
MODERATE TO HIGH TODAY, SO THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS, FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DO NOT REACH TRADITIONAL THRESHOLDS FOR RED
FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE VERY DRY FUELS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA HAVE STILL SHOWN THEY ARE PRONE TO ACTIVE WILDFIRES AND A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.
MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE SUNFLOWER STATE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z.
SOME OF THE CAMS DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WITH THE HRW-FV3
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AS WELL.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
REMAINING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH IS HIGHER NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE 30-35 KNOTS OF 6
KM SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY TONIGHT AND LIKELY EXTEND
FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE
STRONGER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY NIGHT, SO THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF BETTER ORGANIZATION OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY, IN LINE WITH THE SPC'S
INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE TOO MUCH THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT.
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FILTERED
INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO TEXAS AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN THE MORE SEASONABLE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
WEST WHERE UPSLOPE POST-FRONTAL AIR ASSISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REACH THE 100TH
MERIDIAN. STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHICH WOULD POTENTIAL
AFFECT TIMING AND HOW HIGH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OF KANSAS COULD IMPACT TERMINAL KWWR IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH A 30% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY BY 21Z WITH
THOSE PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION IMPACTING TERMINALS KPNC & KSWO
IN NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER 02Z. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY BE HIGH
BUT REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
AN MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT
TERMINALS KOKC & KOUN IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND KCSM & KLAW IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z
AFTER WHICH A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. EXPECTING TERMINALS KSPS & KDUA TO REMAIN IN A VFR
CATEGORY AND DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
10Z SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEHIND IT.
EXPECTING THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT TO ONLY IMPACT
TERMINALS KWWR & KCSM THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF OUR TERMINALS. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH ITS
MAXIMA GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, SO DID ADD LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ONLY AT TERMINALS KOKC & KOUN AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 94 66 84 / 20 70 60 10
HOBART OK 76 98 66 88 / 20 60 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 100 67 92 / 0 60 50 20
GAGE OK 70 90 61 82 / 30 20 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 89 64 80 / 60 70 50 10
DURANT OK 74 100 70 94 / 0 30 60 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page