270
FXUS64 KOUN 261831
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THERE ARE TWO MAIN FEATURES ALONG WITH SFC HEATING THAT ARE CAUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FA TODAY. ONE FEATURE IS THE
CLOSED LOW THAT WAS IN TX YESTERDAY IS NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/AR. THE OTHER FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO PARTS OF
THE REGION.
A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX ALL MORNING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SW/W PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND ASCENT SPREADS EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, IN
PARTS OF OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME DECREASE IN
COVERAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE MAIN FOCUS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEING CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP THAT SOME OF THE STORMS BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RISK FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS/LANDSPOUTS TO MAYBE DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE RISK FOR SUCH
OCCURRENCES WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE TX/OK STATE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS AREA OF MID/LOW-LEVEL SPIN, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUD AND/OR LANDSPOUT DEVELOPMENT. OF COURSE
WHERE THIS COULD DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY. STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN CONCERNS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN 70S TO LOW 80S. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN WILL MAINTAIN THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (FROM WEST TO EAST). BEYOND FRIDAY, THERE IS
A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE US. ACROSS OUR
AREA, THERE MAY BE WEAK MID- LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WHICH WILL
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST MID- LEVEL RIDGING, WHICH PROMOTES
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHILE MOST TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CATEGORY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL OFFER LIMITED
(~30%) POTENTIAL FOR CATEGORY REDUCTIONS THROUGH SUNSET. BY THE MID-
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A MORE COHERENT BAND/ARC OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA, INTRODUCING A MORE LIKELY RAINY/STORMY PERIOD.
LOW STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EMERGE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST LIKELY IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
KWWR/KLAW/KCSM/KOKC/KOUN. AT LEAST LIMITED RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE
WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AS WELL.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 78 64 78 / 50 60 60 70
HOBART OK 61 79 61 81 / 90 50 50 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 81 63 83 / 80 40 30 30
GAGE OK 59 76 59 78 / 70 70 70 70
PONCA CITY OK 63 82 64 79 / 10 50 60 80
DURANT OK 68 79 67 82 / 70 70 40 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09
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