420
FXUS64 KOUN 152249
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
549 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES LINGER OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULTS IN A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN EXTREME
HEAT FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
ANOTHER VERY HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS,
WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING
AND THEN CONTINUES FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION, THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY VEGETATION AND DROUGHT
ALONG WITH THE EXTREME HEAT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING CAUSED FIRE
STARTS.
SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, A SURFACE "COLD" FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, IT WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
THE LOW-END RISK FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AS
WE GO DEEPER INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR A PONCA CITY TO ELK CITY LINE BY
MORNING.
A REASON THAT WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING IS BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF ANY REAL RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY
GET A BIT OF A BREAK AS THEY WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL APPROACH I-40 SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT STILL
ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AT
LEAST A LITTLE RAIN AND NO STRONG WIND GUSTS TO GO ALONG WITH IT. IF
ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP, WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF DRY LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLE FIRE STARTS ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE STRIKES.
MODELS DO SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUING
AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY CONFINED TO
FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE A BIT OF REPRIEVE OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND
KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT DISSIPATES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AND MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK, SO WE MAY BE TRENDING TOWARD
SEEING SOME LOWER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. NBM STILL KEEPS
TEMPERATURE HIGHER LATE NEXT WEEK THAN THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST,
BUT THAT WILL START CATCHING UP IF THIS SIGNAL SHOWS MORE RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY. DESPITE THE MODEL TREND SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL OF
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHIFT ARE STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH OF THE RIDGE STILL REACHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM, REDUCED VISIBILITY AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS,
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 102 74 97 / 0 30 20 20
HOBART OK 77 104 73 101 / 0 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 96 67 95 / 10 20 60 20
PONCA CITY OK 77 100 72 93 / 0 20 30 20
DURANT OK 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-
014>016-021-022-033>035.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-023>032-036>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087-088.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
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