556
FXUS64 KOUN 252334
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
534 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AND A LOW CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL MIXING INTO MODEST 925 TO 850 MB FLOW (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
IS RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON, COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME STEADY AND EVEN BEGIN TO FALL--ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR IS ALSO ADVECTING BEHIND FRONT WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND EVENTUALLY THE 20S DEG F.
BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S DEG WITH THE
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
COOL, SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID
50S DEG F. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES BY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DRY AIR MASS
STILL IN PLACE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BY THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S DEG F.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERFECT
THANKSGIVING DAY.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS WE GET TO LATE WEEK. MODELS DEPICT
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SATURDAY (HIGH
VARIANCE IN TIMING, DEPTH, AND NORTH-SOUTH POSITION), WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION STARTING UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE WAA, WE'LL SEE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
APPROACH 20-30 DEGREES, LARGELY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES (24-48 HOURS) IN THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT CONTINUING PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 10-20% CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE GUSTINESS OF THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAS OR SOON WILL
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH WESTERN SITES SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 50 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 54 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 55 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 26 52 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 29 49 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 38 56 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26
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