478
FXUS64 KOUN 281912
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
212 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY, WHICH IS HELPING TO
BOLSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THIS MCV MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST,
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000 J/KG AND A
STRONG (~40 KT) LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO AT LEAST SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST CORES
WITHIN THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A VERY LOW TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA, WHERE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. AS STORMS MOVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ANY REMNANT CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO OFFER A BREAK FROM STORM CHANCES AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH BY THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, MAKING FOR AN
OVERALL BEAUTIFUL DAY.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BUT A GENERAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS COULD LEAD TO STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN US TROUGHING DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
SHARPENING DRYLINE AND ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA, WITH AN ATTENDANT UPTICK IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. STILL MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EAST OF AN MCV THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF SPS. OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS ARE SKIRTING
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT MOST OF THIS MAY WEAKEN AND OR STAY
NORTH OF WWR. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COMPLEX WILL
BRING DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS
PERHAPS IFR. A NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 72 55 78 / 60 40 10 0
HOBART OK 60 74 54 79 / 60 30 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 79 59 79 / 20 30 30 10
GAGE OK 54 70 49 79 / 80 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 71 51 78 / 80 30 0 0
DURANT OK 65 81 59 79 / 10 40 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06
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