584
FXUS64 KOUN 170701
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
201 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHWEST OK THIS MORNING.
FROST ADVISORY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH READINGS
ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE 30S IN MANY SPOTS, WITH EVEN SOME 20S
NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE
WHERE A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A LIGHTER FREEZE IS
STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS A
BROADER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OK THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN WE SAW
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN IN STORE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE , WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND EVEN INTO CENTRAL OK AS WELL TONIGHT, BUT
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS IT WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO LOW-LYING AND
SHELTERED AREAS (NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY).
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO REBUILD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL REACH BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH 70S COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW A SIGNAL FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OK MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NM INTO CO, BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH, IF ANY, MEASURABLE RAIN.
WARE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
OK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE PASSES BY, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK UNTIL A LARGER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY BRINGING GREATER
RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VARIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM REGARDING ITS PROGRESSION AND AMPLITUDE, BUT FOR NOW
THE HIGHEST POPS (20-40%) ARE FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST AND
THEN SOUTH. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 61 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 38 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 38 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 37 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 66 43 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004-009.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ005>008-
010>016-021-022-033-034.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30
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