380
FXUS64 KOUN 231833
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT NOT
AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN
NORTH TX BUT INCREASING AND EXPANDING EAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE, OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPING INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED ENOUGH THAT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN WE
HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MODELS SHOW SW FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO TODAY/TONIGHT
BUT HIGHEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A BIGGER CONCERN WITH
PWATS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE FA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS. THE TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER/RAIN COVERAGE IS AND HOW LONG THESE THINGS
MAY OR MAY NOT STICK AROUND IN ONE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FURTHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US DEEPENS. MODELS SHOW TWO
SHORTWAVES, ONE THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER ONE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES OVER A BROADER PORTION OF THE AREA. CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
APPEAR MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELS LARGELY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS MORE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE WAVE NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IF
MOISTURE FROM EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY CAN BECOME
INVOLVED AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST, BUT THOSE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN FROM THIS RANGE.
WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FRONTS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WITH 90S
POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL INTRODUCE LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS (TO MVFR) THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CATEGORY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND A MODEST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 91 69 89 / 0 20 20 20
HOBART OK 70 92 70 88 / 20 40 50 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 95 69 93 / 20 20 10 20
GAGE OK 66 86 66 82 / 60 70 80 80
PONCA CITY OK 63 86 66 86 / 0 10 30 40
DURANT OK 67 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09
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