303
FXUS64 KOUN 090630
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING & NIGHT;
SOME RISK MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- HOT, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S WITH LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
THE WEST.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT LATER THIS MORNING. AS IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN AND AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FORCING IMPINGES ON THIS BOUNDARY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
RETURN COULD SEE MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOP, BETTER BEING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS, INITIALLY LOOK TO BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED, BUT SOME DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS A BIT MESSY, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A COUPLE OF
MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A CONTINUED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, BUT DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE AND IMPROVING WIND PROFILES,
SOME TORNADO RISK COULD INCREASE WITH ANY ESTABLISHED SUPERCELLS
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN/STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN
SOME HYDRO ISSUES DEVELOPING AS WELL.
THE FRONT OR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY(OUTFLOW) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE DAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A
BIT COOLER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOWER 80S
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AND A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS AND AFTER A COOL MORNING, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT
THAT ENTERS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY THAT MAY BRING A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
WARM TO HOT. SOME NEAR RECORD HEAT MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST, SOME ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG WITH THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN AS
WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH 10Z.
ENSEMBLE FORECAST AT LEAST A 50% PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2
MILE ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATER THIS MORNING HAVE TEMPO'S IN PLACE BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR
A POTENTIAL REDUCED LIFR CATEGORY AT TERMINALS KPNC, KSWO, KOKC,
KOUN, AND KLAW. ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS BUT AROUND AND
AFTER 00Z. DUE TO MISSING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT TWO OF OUR
TERMINALS, AN AMD NOT SKED IS EFFECT FOR TERMINALS KSWO & KDUA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 87 61 71 49 / 0 80 90 10
HOBART OK 91 61 75 48 / 0 40 70 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 65 81 54 / 0 10 80 20
GAGE OK 90 54 70 42 / 20 40 50 0
PONCA CITY OK 84 57 70 45 / 0 90 60 0
DURANT OK 85 66 78 57 / 0 30 90 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68
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