079
FXUS64 KOUN 280731
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LESS HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A ~597 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON THE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING
WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 100S
DEG F WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEG F. AS A RESULT, A
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL, EAST CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH NEAR 110
DEG F IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THE
REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION COULD IMPACT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BEFORE DISSIPATING.
THE HEATWAVE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS CONTINUING TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN TANDEM WITH A WIND SHIFT/COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (SEE DETAILS IN THE LONG
TERM SECTION BELOW).
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE IS
LIKELY BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL BRING IN STRONGER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED/NEGLIGIBLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
STILL REACH THE 100S DEG F ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS (UNLESS
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS MORE WIDESPREAD.
A STRONGER, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD IN TANDEM
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING
COOLER/LESS HOT WEATHER INTO THE AREA. EVEN WITH A STRONGER FRONT,
THE MOST APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MORE LIMITED. WITH
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST, RAIN CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW/NEAR ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 90S (NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) TO AROUND 100 DEG F (SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). THIS RELATIVE COOL DOWN WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGHS CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 101 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 76 103 76 103 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 79 99 78 99 / 0 10 10 10
DURANT OK 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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