647
FXUS64 KOUN 211853
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- WINTER PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A VERY HIGH (>95%) CHANCE FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F
LIKELY.
- THE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
- LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 30S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
BROAD, CYCLONIC, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY COLD AIR MASS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI SHIFTS EASTWARD, SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S, AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL FEATURE AN ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD
AIR OVERSPREADING OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH MOST AREAS AT OR WELL
BELOW FREEZING BY 3 PM FRIDAY. PERHAPS ONE TREND TO WATCH, IS A
SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER, WHILE OTHER ARE LESS SO, BUT
DRIER AT MID-LEVEL. BOTH MAY BE CORRECT, SO ANY PRECIPITATION MAY
STRUGGLE INITIALLY TO REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER, EVEN
LIGHT/SPOTTY AMOUNTS CAN RESULT IN IMPACTS ON ROADS GIVEN THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA).
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER JET DYNAMICS, AND MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN A DEEP, MOIST, STABLE LAYER. A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARM NOSE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BECOME SLEET. IT POSSIBLE
THAT PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET.
ANOTHER CHANGE THAT WE ARE WATCHING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A "LULL" IN
THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) OF 6+ INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE AREA, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS A MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA,
WITH SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM NOSE STAYS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN THIS CASE,
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE WILL BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (>95%) THAT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWS DURING THIS TIME ARE LIKELY TO STAY NEAR 0F,
WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F EXPECTED. SATURDAY MORNING SEEMS TO BE
THE COLDEST MORNING, AND GUSTY WINDS HELPING WIND CHILLS GET DOWN
TO -5F (SOUTH) TO -20F (NORTH).
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 27 51 25 27 / 0 0 10 50
HOBART OK 25 52 24 27 / 0 0 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 30 57 33 36 / 0 0 30 70
GAGE OK 22 50 15 21 / 0 0 10 50
PONCA CITY OK 24 49 19 23 / 0 0 0 40
DURANT OK 34 56 37 39 / 0 0 40 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR OKZ004>047-050-051.
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...08
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