667
FXUS64 KOUN 081856
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
156 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AND AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AS HAS BEEN A RECURRING THEME... IT'S HOT. THIS MORNING WE
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE ALREADY TRIPLE DIGITS ALMOST EVERYWHERE, AND ARE
105 OR HIGHER IN MANY AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW (<20 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUILDING INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEW OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING'S LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN IN NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT, AND THAT WILL
PLAY INTO WHAT AREAS WILL SEE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105+
DEGREE HEAT INDICES TOMORROW. IN COORDINATION WITH TSA, HAVE
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF MEETING CRITERIA IS, AND WOULD EXPECT THAT
THIS ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED, BUT WILL LET THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS LOOK AT MODEL TRENDS FOR HOW HIGH THE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER. WITH SOME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
PREDICTED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TOMORROW, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
HIGHER THAN TODAY. AFTERNOON RH WILL LIKELY FALL TO LESS THAN 20
PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE
MOST OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE SEEN LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS WITH MANY AREAS
RECEIVING NO PRECIPITATION, AND WITH THAT WE ARE SEEING DRYING
FUELS AND AN INCREASE IN THE ERC (ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT) OF
VEGETATION IN THE WEST. WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY, MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FORECASTING NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE KEEPS US DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER WEDNESDAY.
THERE'S A SIGNAL FOR ONE OR MORE SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK (BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA), BUT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE GREATLY ON TIMING.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BECOMING BREEZY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE-TO-LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 104 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 104 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 105 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 75 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ032-043-048-
052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...13
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