025
FXUS64 KOUN 211045
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
ECHOES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON THE RADAR WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
NOT REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO DRY LOW
LEVELS. OCCASIONALLY, SOME OF THE ECHOES HAD BECOME ROBUST ENOUGH
FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS AND
EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE AN ECHO WOULD PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE.
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE RAIN SHOWERS HAD BECOME A BIT
MORE COMMON.
LOW CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY WILL STILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL HINDER SOME OF IT FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH ABOUT 100-300 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE,
A FEW MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. ANY CHANCES FOR
SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS, WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SIMILAR TO OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S (TUESDAY) HIGHS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THAT TIME AS AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SFC COULD BE A BIT MORE BREEZY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NW PARTS OF THE
FA AS SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE SOME STORMS STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EARLIEST AND HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS
ABUNDANT SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS THE
LAST COUPLE OF RAIN EVENTS THE FA HAS EXPERIENCED BUT SOME LOCATIONS
IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-1.5
INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE COLD FRONT, CLOUDS, AND RAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND SOME 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONGOING (GENERALLY LIGHT INTENSITY) PRECIPITATION CORES WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH 15-17Z THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND SCATTERED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 56 78 57 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 79 57 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 82 55 82 56 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 54 79 54 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 53 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page