325
FXUS64 KOUN 080635
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO NW/WNW FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO KS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN/STALLING.
MEANWHILE, PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE BREEZY WINDS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS DUE TO LACK OF OR VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NW/NORTHERN OK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT IN KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE NW/WNW FLOW
ALOFT, THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT SE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
FAIRLY LOW (15-30%). IF ANY STORMS DO MOVE INTO THE AREA, CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE FIRE STARTS
DUE TO THE DRY FUELS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OK.
THURSDAY: MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINNING TO SHIFT
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC, GULF MOISTURE
BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS WELL WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PARTS OF NW OK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE LATER MOVING INTO THAT AREA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FA) AND DRY FUELS.
MODELS SHOW A DRYLINE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY AND STATIONARY
FRONT IN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN
MOVE INTO NW/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
FRIDAY: MODELS SHOW GULF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER
LOW/TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST AND WEAK SW FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN KS FOR A FEW DAYS TO PUSH SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
STATE LINE OR POSSIBLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN OK ON FRIDAY.
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FRONT AND A
DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE FA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WAA SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THE PATTERN SHIFT TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO AN
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND THE UPPER
LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND INCREASING PWATS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
OTHER THAN SOME GUSTS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
RATHER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OVER
30KTS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AROUND 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 52 83 57 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 54 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 52 83 56 / 0 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 76 51 82 58 / 0 10 10 20
DURANT OK 78 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30
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