801
FXUS64 KOUN 112246
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
446 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 444 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH DIGS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
50S. OVERALL, TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT FOR JANUARY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WITH WARM DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN CUT-OFF LOW THAT WAS SITUATED OVER BAJA
CALI WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS WEEK AND BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO TEXAS. THUS, INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR
TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY CREEP INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY WILL REMAIN THE STORY HEADING INTO
THE WORK WEEK. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, MAINLY DRIVEN BY
RH WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WHERE MINIMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSIST. IF WINDS OVERACHIEVE, THIS COULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE "COOLER" AIR AND BREEZIER POST-
FRONTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DELAYED TO LATER
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
APPRECIABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
QUITE GUSTY WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB WINDS. WITH STRENGTHENING
COLD AIR ADVECTION, A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH STEADY AND/OR FALLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA.
BY THURSDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH AS
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, A DOWNSLOPE-WARMED
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY THAN ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS
THE EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS TO MOVE
THROUGH. CURRENTLY, THE COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S TO NEAR 50 DEG F). WITH OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS BEING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH,
ANY COLD AIR INTRUSIONS LOOK TO BE BRIEF AS DOWNSLOPE-WARMING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL QUICKLY ERODE ANY COLD AIR AS SURFACE
HIGHS SHIFT TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW/NEAR
ZERO.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE WINDS AS HIGH
AS 10KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 33 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 29 64 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 28 64 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 32 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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