809
FXUS64 KOUN 240650
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
150 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST DAYS INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE DECAYING MCS
LAST EVENING. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH THE ACTIVITY, BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE AND WEAK.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT WESTWARD TODAY WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT IN THE 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF STATES WILL PROVIDE A PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES NEAR 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM NOON TO 8 PM.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TO DRIVE STORMS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
CONVECTION WILL DECAY AS IT PUSHES INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TOMORROW
EVENING, BUT A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY'S OVERNIGHT MAY HELP TO INITIATE
NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WARMER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF NEARLY 105 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA AND SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY
APPROACH 110 TO 115 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS MORE OVER OKLAHOMA, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF IN THE 70S DEWPOINTS DUE SURFACE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL RANGE 100 TO
110 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. ALL IN ALL, THERE IS A HIGH TO EXTREME
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND, THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE CONTINUED HEAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SOME AREAS THAT MAY
BREACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES. THEREFORE, HEAT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
MESSAGE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE MAY RETREAT WESTWARD AND
OPEN THE DOOR FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD BRING A
RETURN TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST (ESPECIALLY
KPNC AND KDUA) WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL AT KSWO, KOKC, AND
KOUN, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 78 100 78 / 10 20 10 0
HOBART OK 100 78 102 77 / 10 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 78 101 78 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 101 75 101 76 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 94 77 100 79 / 40 20 10 0
DURANT OK 95 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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