043
FXUS64 KOUN 200343
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE EXPANSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND OUT OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY,
AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS GENERALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH AS WELL, SO AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH MAY GIVE WAY TO A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
ONCE AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE, WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY EVENING, AND MOVE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE BEST
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX WOULD BE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES
INTO OUR AREA, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
ON SUNDAY, DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HEAT INDICES OF 105-109 F ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE
OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, WHEN CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION BECOMES
MORE CLEAR. SEVERE WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, AND WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR, SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A ~596+ DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONGOING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MCSS AND/OR EFFECTIVE
COLD FRONTS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN CHECK (I.E., NOT BECOME TOO HOT) NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MOVE INTO NW
OK LATE SATURDAY EVENING. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS IN A FEW AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO S
AND SE WINDS SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 87 73 96 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 68 90 73 99 / 20 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 91 73 97 / 20 20 0 0
GAGE OK 67 91 73 100 / 10 10 40 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 85 73 93 / 30 30 30 30
DURANT OK 73 89 76 94 / 40 30 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page