772
FXUS64 KOUN 221123
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
523 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
- WITH WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN LOOKS TO EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
IT IS ANOTHER COLD MORNING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS,
WITH AREAWIDE 10S TO LOW-20S (WARMEST SOUTH) ONGOING. WITH LAWTON
DROPPING TO 12-DEGREES OVER THE PAST HOUR, WE HAVE ALREADY SET A NEW
COLD LOW RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 22ND HERE THIS MORNING. WICHITA FALLS
MAY ALSO MATCH/EXCEED ITS DAILY COLD LOW RECORD OVER THE COMING
HOURS.
WHILE CLOUDIER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS DASHED HOPES OF A "WARM UP"
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND BEGINNING FOR ALL AREAS
TODAY. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE REGIME AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
TO YIELD 50S (WEST) TO UPPER-40S (EAST) BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING, AS A COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM
TRANSLATES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GIVEN PROGGED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(NEAR/JUST BELOW FREEZING) AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE, SOME
CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD EMERGE IF PRECIPITATION IS
REALIZED. THOUGH AGAIN, WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL SATURATION, THIS CONCERN APPEARS VERY LIMITED AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING UPWARDS FROM SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN AIDS IN
ADVECTION OF WARMED/DOWNSLOPED AIRMASSES ACROSS THE AREA. 60S ON
SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER-60S-TO-70S ON MONDAY. A CORRIDOR
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS MAY WARM
TOWARDS 80-DEGREES ON MONDAY, AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT
THERMAL RIDGE SLIDE ACROSS THESE AREAS. NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCE
IS ADVERTISED BOTH DAYS.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER THEME OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE UPSTREAM OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO 70S
APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MOST "SIGNIFICANT" DAY OF
VARIED SENSIBLE IMPACT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY, WHEN A MORE ROBUST
UPPER SYSTEM ROUNDS OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE (INTO THE
OHIO/MISSOURI VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED (DRY) FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH WARM AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS, CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL
PRIMARILY FOCUS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, WHERE
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED <1-INCH OF ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAST ~90+ DAYS.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF TO THE
EAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
01Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 55 28 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 31 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 26 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 25 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 30 59 37 / 0 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...68
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page