595
FXUS64 KOUN 171135
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- THERE ARE RISKS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE A LITTLER LOWER AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS STATE LINE (100TH MERIDIAN). AS A 50-KNOT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK LIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, A SURFACE LOW WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A DRYLINE BULGE DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DRYLINE BULGE.
GIVEN THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES, THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
INITIATION (CI) ALONG THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY AS THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CI IS ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (20 TO 30% FOR A GIVEN
LOCATION), WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST SYNOPIC-SCALE
ASCENT. HOWEVER, WITH A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT (E.G., 12
DEG C AT 700 MB), THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GUARANTEED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OKLAHOMA. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP,
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL WITH A LOW TORNADO RISK. ANY STORMS WOULD GENERALLY
MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNING,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
HARPER COUNTY TO SOUTHEAST WOODWARD COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DRYLINE BULGE,
THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY
TO BE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL
BE NEAR 10%, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THIS, ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, A WEAK WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A TROUGH WITH AN 80-KNOT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL LIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS FORECAST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WITH STRONGER FORCING TO
THE NORTH, STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE. INITIALLY, THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE. THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT (I.E.,
THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DECREASES FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE). INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
TORNADOES.
BY EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AMPLIFY WITH 50 TO 60 KNOT
WINDS. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, RESULTING IN ENLARGED, CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES--INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES. AS A RESULT, ANY ONGOING SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING
WILL HAVE AN INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE LOCATION WITH THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA GIVEN THAT AREA HAS THE
(RELATIVELY) HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF ANY
SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THEY WILL ALSO BE IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES.
WEST OF THE DRYLINE, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE WITH
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.
OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE SEVERE RISK MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. COOLER WEATHER AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MUCH LOWER DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH A COOLER, POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN THE AREA.
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A WEAKNESS/TROUGHINESS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN EARLY SUNDAY.
LLWS IS EXPECTED AT A FEW SITES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. S TO
SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE SOME AGAIN
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING NEAR KWWR AND KCSM
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LLWS IS A CONCERN FOR
MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 71 87 63 / 10 10 30 50
HOBART OK 93 70 94 62 / 10 20 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 71 92 68 / 10 10 30 10
GAGE OK 96 67 96 49 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 91 72 90 60 / 10 20 30 80
DURANT OK 88 75 89 73 / 20 20 30 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>013-015-016-
022-035.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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