694  
FXUS64 KOUN 212026  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
226 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020  
   
..NEW LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020  
 
THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL LEAD  
TO THE WARMING WE WILL SEE THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY, AND MAY AT TIMES BECOME GUSTY IN  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME SPORADIC HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM  
THE WEST, WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY INTERESTING THING THIS SHORT TERM  
DISCUSSION HAS IN IT.  
 
ZWINK  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020  
 
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF NE NM/SE CO. MODELS SHOW THE SFC LOW MOVING  
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY,  
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST  
PARTS OF THE FA STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOME RAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE FA, LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO WAA. AS  
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE  
SFC LOW/ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL  
EXPAND/INCREASE ACROSS THE FA. HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL LAST SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF  
THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR  
THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS  
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WITH THIS  
STORM SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN. MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT  
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
SUNDAY BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  
 
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,  
MODELS SHOW A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW.  
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE DROPPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WEEKEND  
SYSTEM, WITH A CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE/HOW WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN THE FA TUESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING  
INTO THE REGION, SOME LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE IN  
PARTS OF THE FA TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST REMAINS  
DRY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN PARTS OF  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  
 
ZWINK  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 34 57 45 58 / 0 0 10 60  
HOBART OK 35 59 45 64 / 0 0 10 30  
WICHITA FALLS TX 36 60 47 64 / 0 0 10 30  
GAGE OK 34 60 44 65 / 0 0 20 60  
PONCA CITY OK 31 58 43 55 / 0 0 30 80  
DURANT OK 32 56 44 59 / 0 0 10 60  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...50  
LONG TERM....25  
AVIATION...50  
 
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