022
FXUS64 KOUN 210635
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED RAIN/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-
40 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WAA WILL AID IN
A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND THEN SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD MORNING.
OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THEN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ELSEWHERE, THE HEAT, UNFORTUNATELY, WILL BE THE STORY ONCE AGAIN.
AFTER SOME MORNING CLOUDS EXPECT ABUNDANT INSOLATION FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS TOPPING 110. HEAT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
IN ADDITION, EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS, THE COMBINATION OF EXCESSIVE
HEAT, LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, EXTREMELY STRESSED VEGETATION AND
DROUGHT WILL RESULT IN EASILY INDUCED FIRE STARTS AGAIN TODAY. BE
CAREFUL WITH ANY POTENTIAL HEAT SOURCE WHICH MAY AID IN STARTING
WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SOME LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS A MINOR DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AN AREA OF WAA
MAY AGAIN ASSIST IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING,
AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. MUCH LIKE FRIDAY,
A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN LATE
DAY CONVECTION SATURDAY, THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S). OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT, HEAT INDICES AND LIKELY MORE HEADLINES FOR SATURDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPS SHORTWAVE WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER TO A THIRD OF THE STATE WITH PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL POSSIBLY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH. A FEW
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
RETROGRADES BACK WESTWARD. EVEN BY MONDAY THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW, ALTHOUGH WEAK, TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY BIG CHANGES MONDAY OR TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO OKLAHOMA, BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIP, BEST ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. HOPEFULLY THESE INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT I DON'T
WANT TO GET TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT.
IN THE WAKE OF WHAT WE HOPE IS SOME PRECIP, SOME COOLER AIR SLIDES
INTO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD, THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY LOW/SCATTERED MENTIONS OF RAIN AND
STORMS INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW, THE MOST "LIKELY" PERIODS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 08Z AND AGAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY-ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATTER PERIOD.
PASSING OUTFLOWS/WEAK FRONTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SHIFT WIND
DIRECTION OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA,
THOUGH A SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 106 76 104 75 / 10 20 10 10
HOBART OK 108 78 108 76 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 109 79 109 78 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 104 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 100 73 97 72 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 107 78 106 76 / 10 20 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>017-
020>023-026-033>038.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ018-019-
024-025-027>032-039>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ090.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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