741
FXUS64 KOUN 130642
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1242 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-
NORTH TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A RETURN TOWARDS
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER, WITH AFTERNOON FIRE DANGER ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS, WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. A DOWNSLOPED WARMED AIRMASS WILL PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR,
WHERE SEVERAL READINGS IN THE LOW-70S ARE LIKELY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
WE ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING EMERGENCE OF (AT LEAST) ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS AFTER THE LUNCHTIME HOUR. THIS RISK WILL BE
DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY (PERHAPS
<15% IN SPOTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER) AND DRY FUELS.
FORTUNATELY, ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODEST WIND MAGNITUDES (I.E.,
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR AND BELOW 15 MPH) WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
MORE PROBLEMATIC FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS/CATEGORIES.
STILL, PROVIDED THE OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS, A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A PROMINENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COMMENCE DURING THE INITIAL HOURS
OF WEDNESDAY, AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES) BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED GUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, A MORE SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY AFTER 9-10 AM. GUSTS TO
35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
CURRENT SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTER OF WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL GUST
MAGNITUDES (>40 MPH) IS SUCH THAT A HEADLINE IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
DESPITE MOST AREAS BEING SOLIDLY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR MID-
JANUARY AVERAGES (UPPER-40S NORTH TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FAR SOUTH).
EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS, THE COMBINATION OF A GUSTY
NORTH WIND AND CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL FOSTER RATHER WIDESPREAD
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE A VERY COLD START ON THURSDAY (AREAWIDE WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S), A GENERALLY WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM DOWNSLOPED AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYTIME, ALONG WITH RE-ESTABLISHING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (DUE TO A WEAK LEE CYCLONE TO OUR
NORTHWEST). TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S NEAR THE
100TH MERIDIAN TO MID-50S ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE RESIDUAL
INFLUENCE FROM THE PRIOR/DEPARTING SYSTEM LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD-DIVING UPPER WAVE LATE IN
THE WEEK WILL FOSTER ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE INITIAL FRONT LOOKS
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY, SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS (50S) ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DURING THE DAYTIME. WITH
ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY (>30-35 MPH) NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (<20-25%), A POTENTIALLY CONCERNING FIRE
ENVIRONMENT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
THE BRUNT OF THE ASSOCIATED COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT BY
SATURDAY MORNING, AS A 1032+ MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY RACES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED TRACK OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH (AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH) WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS ON SENSIBLE CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE TO NOTE A LARGE SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY (UPPER-30S/40S VS.
50S/LOW-60S) IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH NIL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY CAPTURED IN
OUR GRIDDED FORECAST.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW WIND
GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 10KTS, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 44 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 71 42 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 43 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 39 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 41 47 24 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 68 45 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page