720
FXUS64 KOUN 021146
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
646 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE PARTS OF AREA INTO SATURDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AUTUMN WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, NORTHERLY WINDS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SATURATED LOW LEVELS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE FAVORING FOG
FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVING VISIBILITIES
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER TO THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TODAY, RANGING FROM ~1 INCH ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
~2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AS A
RESULT, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/LIMITED INSOLATION, AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
60S AND 70S DEG F.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. COVERAGE MAY EVEN INCREASE WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S DEG F. PARTS OF
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL GET CLOSE TO OR PERHAPS EVEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S DEG F.
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG F. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.
BY SUNDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD AS THE WESTERLIES RETREAT TO THE NORTH WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG BIAS-CORRECTED
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS MINIMAL WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE
INDICATING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEING THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE BACK
NEAR 90 DEG F, WHICH IS ~15 DEG F ABOVE-NORMAL. THE GOOD NEWS IS
WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE, SHORTER DAYS, AND LOWER DEW POINTS,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE (IN THE 50S AND 60S DEG
F) NEXT WEEK.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
STRATUS PRODUCING VERY LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING TERMINALS
TO BE IN AN IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 16Z THEN PERHAPS
IMPROVE TO A MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 16Z AT SOME TERMINALS. THE
STRATUS/CEILINGS MAY SCATTER ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 18Z
WITH ONLY TERMINALS KPNC & KWWR IMPROVING TO A VFR CATEGORY AT
LEAST THROUGH 07Z. LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TERMINAL KDUA
DOWN TO 1 MILE WITH CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 500 FT AT LEAST THROUGH
16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 56 73 59 / 20 20 30 0
HOBART OK 68 57 76 57 / 30 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 60 75 60 / 30 40 40 10
GAGE OK 66 49 76 53 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 52 73 56 / 10 10 10 0
DURANT OK 77 65 77 63 / 50 60 60 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68
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