331  
FXUS64 KOUN 101130  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
630 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE,  
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX, THROUGH TONIGHT,  
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS DRIER  
AIR FILTERS INTO THE FA. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY  
ONCE AGAIN BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO HEATING, ALTHOUGH  
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BY THEN MAY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN TX.  
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
DETERMINISTIC ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE/CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW VERY LITTLE  
VARIATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THERE BEGINS TO BE SOME VARIATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK  
WHICH COULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE  
AREA, AT LEAST FOR A SHORT TIME.  
 
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING  
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES  
THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER HIGH ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCING THE REGION, HOT  
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. RELATIVELY EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO RAPIDLY  
DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD FURTHER  
INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE  
RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MORE/MOST OF THE FA BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT THAT THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT  
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE  
SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE  
NW/NNW FLOW, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. IF  
THIS PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS, THE RETURN OF THE TRIPLE DIGITS COULD BE  
FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED WITH CLOUDS AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN POSSIBLE  
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WHEN/IF THE SHORTWAVES  
AFFECT THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY  
CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY  
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING  
THE DAYTIME.  
 
AN AREA OF SHOWERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING  
NORTHWEST OF KSPS THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS CONVECTION  
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH  
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, WHICH COULD ALSO AFFECT KSPS. ANY  
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD HAVE GUSTY, CHAOTIC WINDS.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 68 94 69 / 10 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 98 70 98 71 / 20 10 10 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 73 98 73 / 30 10 10 0  
GAGE OK 94 64 95 66 / 10 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 96 66 95 67 / 0 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 96 71 95 71 / 30 10 10 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...25  
LONG TERM....25  
AVIATION...10  
 
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