010
FXUS64 KOUN 251117
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL PRIMARILY STAY WEST OF THE
AREA.
- THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, AND AREAWIDE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS BOTH THE UPPER RIDGE
JUST TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALLOWING THE PLUME OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH TODAY AND BEGIN EJECTING
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION AREA OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLES TODAY. ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY IN
THE NORMAN FORECAST AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE SLOWER/FARTHER WEST TREND CONTINUES WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE EJECTING FROM ARIZONA
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ANY FARTHER EAST THAN A CHEROKEE-ALTUS-QUANAH LINE WITH
THIS FIRST WAVE, AND 30+ PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF A GAGE-WOODWARD-ALVA
LINE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY WAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AIDING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE FORECAST
TRAJECTORY, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE NBM PRODUCES POPS OF 40-60
PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE AS THE VORT MAX SEEMS TO APPEAR
OVER THE SIERRA MADRES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION, GIVING AT LEAST
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MODELS, ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOMEWHAT THE SAME DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFIC EVOLUTION, WE REMAIN UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ANY LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE STUCK IN THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES OR UNDER THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S., SO OUR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA, WITH CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY
DOWN NEAR 5000-7000 FT POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OK, INCLUDING CSM
AND WWR. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE HERE BUT CHANCES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AND EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 57 76 59 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 79 58 76 59 / 0 0 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 57 79 60 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 77 56 73 56 / 20 10 20 50
PONCA CITY OK 80 56 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 82 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
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