909
FXUS64 KOUN 052256
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
- LOW TO MODERATE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
AREAS OF RELATIVELY LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH SOME NEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST.
WITH THE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE FROM THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING, INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, BUT DEFINITELY HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT REMAINS VERY HIGH (2.12 INCHES) SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE 80S, SO TODAY'S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK REASONABLE IN MOST AREAS. THE POPS IN THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST HAVE BEEN EXPANDED/RAISED, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HAVE ALSO KEPT POPS SOUTHEAST INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
THERE IS A MIXED BAG ON THE STORM CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGING SOME QPF INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW, THE NAM SHOWING THE CONVECTION
STAYING NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE 00Z
ECMWF DISSIPATING ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION BY 00Z WELL NORTHWEST
OF HERE. DID NOT SEE A HIGH ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR 20 POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST, BUT THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE TO SEE SOME STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BUILD STRONGLY ENOUGH INTO
THE PLAINS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SO WE EXPECT TO SEE
STORM CHANCES PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE CHANCES WILL
INCLUDE BOTH LOCAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THIS HUMID
AIRMASS, BUT ALSO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION TO FORM A STORM COMPLEX MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW, PUTTING A BIT
MORE EMPHASIS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES TO
AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT / EARLY MORNING
PERIODS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AS PWATS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.
HEAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE NEARBY UPPER HIGH (OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S.), WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING TO THE CENTURY MARK, INCLUDING SOME AREAS NEAR 105 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH A FEW
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CEILINGS EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY IN A SIMILAR AREA TO THE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED TODAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 88 71 88 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 71 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 87 72 90 / 10 30 10 30
GAGE OK 67 93 66 90 / 10 20 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 91 71 90 / 10 30 20 20
DURANT OK 74 91 73 92 / 20 20 0 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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