065
FXUS64 KOUN 021535
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS DROP INTO THE
60'S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY
INTO THE 80'S BY MID-MORNING WITH THE CEASING OF LOW-LEVEL CAA. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR, AND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
RETURN OF THE RIDGE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL YIELD A 2 TO 3 DEG
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THOSE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90'S, WITH NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RED RIVER
IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TODAY.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. BY EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ESE-LY AREA-WIDE AS THE HIGH EXITS THE PLAINS.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (RH-DRIVEN) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE RETURN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DELAYED MOISTURE RETURN, AND
DRYING FUELS.
BY MONDAY, A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND SURFACE WINDS RETURN
TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY. VEERED, DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT H850 WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15
TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS, WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BOTH
DAYS. THE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL YIELD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS ON BOTH DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL AS VIRGA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING HIGH CLOUD BASES AND
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MODEL BLENDS SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
KANSAS. HOWEVER, A FEW DETERMINISTIC MODELS (NAM/GFS) INDICATE THE
FRONT COULD SAG INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS (15%) OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY RISING TO NEAR 30% ON THURSDAY
EVENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURE BOX PLOTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS WIDEN BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. STILL, HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA AND HUMIDITY RISES MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60'S AND LOW 70'S. HEAT HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KWWR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 102 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 67 95 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...13
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