524
FXUS64 KOUN 231114
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER EAST.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
QUIET WEATHER TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE MIDWEST WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE DOWN TO
NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST. BEING NORTHWEST OF THIS RIDGE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE BEEN OFFSHORE AT THE
TEXAS GULF COAST SO WE HAVE NO RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA
YET.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE ONLY SHIFTING EAST
SLOWLY AS THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE WEST CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN SONORAN DESERT SATURDAY. AFTER CLOSING OFF, THE
LOW ITSELF WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD INITIALLY BEFORE
THE MODELS SHOW IT OPENING BACK UP INTO A TROUGH ON SUNDAY. AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW/TROUGH, BUT WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE EAST, THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION SIGNAL REMAINS WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY, AND EVEN THEN WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AS THE LOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OPENS UP AND FILLS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR THE TROUGH TO DEAMPLIFY
QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
UP TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
RELATIVELY STRONG OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH TAKES MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
NORTHEAST WITH IT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS IN
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY, AND ALTHOUGH THERE STILL IS
SOME PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST AS THE TAIL END OF THE
WEAKENING TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DO DECREASE GETTING FARTHER EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS IN THE MODELS.
LATE IN THE WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVE WITH THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER IN THE WESTERN U.S.
THE GFS SHOWS A 550 DM 500 MB LOW OVER NEVADA WITH A BROAD TROUGH
DOWN TOWARD THE MOJAVE AND SONORAN DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING,
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS RIDGING FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS UP TOWARD NEVADA. WITH THAT, THE GFS SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS LITTLE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THIS
IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE TIMELINE OF THIS FORECAST SO WE WILL HAVE
THE CHANCE TO SEE IF MODELS BEGIN ALIGNING THEMSELVES MORE. NBM
DOES HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL WITH THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT THIS FORECAST WILL
CERTAINLY EVOLVE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, BECOMING A BIT GUSTIER BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 57 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 80 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 80 57 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 83 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
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