037
FXUS64 KOUN 151122
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- THERE IS RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF OUR AREA
THROUGH LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH A COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS RESULTING IN A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT IN CONDUCIVE FOR HEAT BURSTS/GUSTY WINDS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
AND MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITH TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING.
HOTTER WEATHER WITH NEAR OR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS
FARTHER TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL RISE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
MID 100S DEG F. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA, TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S DEG F.
A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS TO AT LEAST 40 MPH.
AS VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WITH SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME HEATING, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20%. THERE IS EVEN A REASONABLE
CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10%. THE ANOMALOUS HEAT,
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE
EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS.
SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE A THREAT
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD
BASES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT BURSTS/WAKE LOWS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
REMNANT SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAT BURSTS. CURRENTLY, THE
MOST LIKELY AREA IS ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
FOR SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN
BY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION INITIATION (CI) IS
LOWER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO SYNOPTIC-SCALE
ASCENT/APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS. CURRENTLY, THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE CI IS NEAR THE RED RIVER ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THE HOTTEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DRYLINE,
WHICH MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. ELEVATED TO AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN WITH
CONTINUED HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE PROBABILITY FOR CI ALONG THE DRYLINE IS HIGHER AS
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN TANDEM WITH DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD. THE DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED AT AROUND THE SAME LONGITUDE AS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY, SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THE
DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FOR MONDAY, THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
THE PLAINS WITH SYNOPIC-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN
TANDEM WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH DEEP,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH KEEPS THE STRONGEST FLOW/SHEAR TO OUR NORTH,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
TORNADOES. WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE PASSING BY ON MONDAY,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST ON THIS DAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ADVANCE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BEYOND TUESDAY, AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LLWS IS A CONCERN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MOST
TERMINALS. TODAY, EXPECT STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CHANCES PEAK AT ABOUT 30% FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 72 89 71 / 20 20 0 0
HOBART OK 102 70 99 70 / 20 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 70 94 70 / 20 20 10 10
GAGE OK 100 65 100 69 / 20 30 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 92 69 92 72 / 10 30 0 0
DURANT OK 89 71 89 72 / 10 20 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ009-010-014>016-021-022-033>036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083-084.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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