357
FXUS64 KOUN 031729
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SATURDAY FEATURING
CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTING TO A HIGH RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY, PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS,
LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES MAY HELP TO TAKE A SLIGHT EDGE OFF THE HEAT.
HOWEVER, TIME SPENT IN THE SUN AND OUTDOORS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
REDUCE ANY RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES DUE TO A DRY INVERTED "V" BOUNDARY
LAYER. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY INTO OKLAHOMA WITH A LACK OF FORCING. IF A STORM
CAN MAINTAIN INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
NOT MUCH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING STILL IN THE 70S. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING A BIT EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
GIVE WAY TO AMPLE HEATING AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS. THE WET-BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE (WBGT)
WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONDITIONS AND BE A
CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ON SATURDAY. TIME SPENT OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD STAY WELL HYDRATED. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY DRIVE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SHEAR IS MEAGER AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS. DCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG COULD
LEAD TO STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS BEFORE
DECAYING.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED HEAT, BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A PASSING SURFACE LOW.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
CONTINUED HEAT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAILY DIURNAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES MAY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
FAIR-WEATHER CU IS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF I-44 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD STAY VFR EVERYWHERE BUT A FEW CEILINGS OF AROUND
4,000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF DUA. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 100 75 97 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 75 101 74 99 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 73 102 71 97 / 10 10 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 75 97 73 92 / 0 10 50 30
DURANT OK 77 96 77 95 / 0 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04
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