512
FXUS64 KOUN 301016
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
516 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AND RANGE FROM ~100 TO 107 DEG F, WHICH IS AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
I-44 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS, COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW 20% FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE TOTAL
FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIAL ATTACK TO LOW-
END LARGE WILDFIRES WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY DRY FUELS
(I.E., ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT [ERC] PERCENTILES >90TH
PERCENTILE). THEREFORE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) WAS ISSUED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
MIDWEST BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL AND GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 90S TO 105 DEG F. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
RELAX SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY DRY FUELS, THE ENVIRONMENT
STILL WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIAL ATTACK WILDFIRES.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NWP IN AGREEMENT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF OUR
WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
90S TO THE MID 100S DEG F. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS,
FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
WITH SOME MEMBERS INDICATING THE RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
TO ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH LESS
HOT WEATHER. FOR EXAMPLE, THE PROBABILISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS (NBM) FORECAST HAS AROUND AN 8 TO 15 DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN
THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY. THE 10TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS IN THE UPPER 80S (NORTH) TO
UPPER 90S (SOUTH) DEG F. HOWEVER, THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS OF
NOW IS THAT THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
S AND SW BECOMING BREEZY. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE S AND SE
THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 102 78 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 104 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 104 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 103 75 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 104 77 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 102 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>008-010>013-017>020.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
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