556
FXUS64 KOUN 252333
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX TODAY, EXPANDING EAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE (1.75-2
INCHES), SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, SO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS.
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING, UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) INCREASES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ATTENDANT TO THE STRENGTHENING LLJ, ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, SO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON, SO MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS GET A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN DAYS PRECEDING.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. LARGE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE POLO OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTH
EARLY IN THE WEEK. ITS REMNANT MOISTURE LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH AS WE INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS WELL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND THIS POINT AS MODELS DIVERGE WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOW A CLOSED
LOW, THE EURO IS FARTHER SOUTH AND BECOMES A BIT MORE CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE EURO'S TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF POLO ALSO
ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING
OUT BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND HAS THE
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE
SPRING-TIME SEVERE WEATHER LOOK. EITHER WAY LOOKS TO BRING THE BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
IMPACTING A FEW OF OUR TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. CEILINGS
HIGH BUT IMPACTED TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO AN MVFR
CATEGORY IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND VARIABLE WIND GUSTS
FROM STORM OUTFLOW UP TO 30 MPH. AFTER 04Z PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA
DECREASE TO 30% UP THROUGH 12Z BUT WILL KEEP A PROB30 LONGER TO
16Z IN NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT TERMINALS KPNC & KSWO. BY LATE
MORNING AFTER 17Z ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AND
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE LEE
OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
ALTHOUGH SOME TERMINALS MAY SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT. BY 17Z SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS BECOME SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AT 15-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 90 70 91 / 20 30 40 10
HOBART OK 69 90 68 92 / 60 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 96 70 98 / 20 20 20 10
GAGE OK 64 88 63 87 / 50 20 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 85 66 85 / 50 70 80 20
DURANT OK 68 95 69 97 / 0 0 20 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68
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