993
FXUS64 KOUN 230648
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
148 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT; DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
- CHANCES FOR EVENING STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
THURSDAY.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW IN, MCS OUT. THAT'S A COMMON FORECAST INPUT/OUTPUT
FOR US IN LATE JUNE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY OUT
WEST. IT'S A PATTERN THAT WE'RE GOING TO FIND A LITTLE HARD TO SHAKE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AS WELL.
THAT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE EXISTENCE
OF AN MCV FROM STORMS NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MCV WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND REACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING. WHILE THAT'S
OCCURRING, SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN BACKING AGAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
THE 100TH MERIDIAN WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH ZONE. THIS WILL BEGIN
PUMPING THE ZONE OF 70-73 DEWPOINTS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MCV.
A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE, AND THOSE SCENARIOS ARE IN TURN
COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBLE EXISTENCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER AROUND DAYBREAK. UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF THE MCS IS UNCERTAIN, AS SOME MEMBERS OF THE 0Z HREF (THE
HRRR AND NAM ESPECIALLY) DEPICT CONVECTION INITIATION AS EARLY AS
MID-MORNING. IF THIS WAS TO OCCUR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THE PRIMARY WELL OF INSTABILITY WOULD BE ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THIS CASE, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD BE
INITIALLY LIMITED UNTIL THE MCS REACHES THE RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLES AND MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS IS WHERE THE PRESENCE OF A MIDDAY MCS AND ITS
IMPACTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING THE
BREADTH OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR INSTANCE, THE
18Z NAM 3KM DEPICTS NO STORMS UNTIL AN MCS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THAT MCS WOULD BE PRIMED FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE, THE 0Z NAM 3KM DOES DEPICT A MIDDAY
SQUALL LINE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT IS SUFFICIENT TO QUASH ANY FURTHER STORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND NIGHT.
IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING: THERE WILL BE STORMS, MOST LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF A SQUALL LINE, ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY (PROBABLY WEST OF I-35
FOR THE MOST PART). BEYOND THAT, CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN THE
CASCADING IMPACTS OF PRIOR CONVECTION, SO REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGES
IN THE FORECAST.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW SEASON WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH FLOW PINCHED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WHICH WILL VERY LIKELY ENCOURAGE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE AND RATON MESA. THE NAM SHOWS A 35
KNOT 850 MB LLJ ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TO JUST EAST OF THE 100TH
MERIDIAN, WHICH PRESUMABLY WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF ANY MCS INTO
AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SIMILAR TO OTHER NORTHWEST FLOW YEARS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER
BIFURCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA: WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, NEAR
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE, WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE IMPACTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON
THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
ADD A FEW DEGREES TO EVERYONE'S TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW, NBM INPUTS
SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL ACTUALLY DROP A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY RELATIVE
TO TODAY/WEDNESDAY, IN LARGE PART BECAUSE SURFACE WINDS VEER SOME.
GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA HAS SEEN RECENTLY, THAT DOESN'T FEEL
LIKE A GIVEN. STORM CHANCES THURSDAY MAY VERY WELL STAY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS KANSAS, THOUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE TO WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS AS WELL.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY AT THE LATEST.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SLIDE BACK EAST AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. FOR US, THERE ARE A FEW SENSIBLE IMPACTS:
-TEMPERATURES WILL START HEATING UP AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND, AND HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ONCE AGAIN BE MET OVER A 3-5 DAY SPAN
CONSECUTIVELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
-RAIN CHANCES WILL MARKEDLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS WELL.
THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL THEN
RETROGRADE AND CENTER ITSELF BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING WEEK 2, BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE CURRENT LONG-TERM FORECAST.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MCS ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/TX PANHANDLE MAY
STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06-18Z POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
ALL OF OUR REMAINING TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KSWO & KPNC ALTHOUGH LOW
CEILINGS FROM STRATUS ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY REDUCE
THOSE TWO TERMINALS TO AN MVFR CATEGORY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAVE AT LEAST 30% PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN OFF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR TERMINALS IN WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM 18-23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT
CHAOTIC IN DIRECTION DUE TO MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS OUR
AREA AND ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE GUSTINESS AND
VARIABILITY. BY 00Z WILL BE INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS
TO TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST OF OUR TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 72 89 73 / 50 60 30 50
HOBART OK 94 71 95 73 / 40 50 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 74 96 75 / 20 30 0 0
GAGE OK 91 68 88 68 / 60 60 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 82 69 84 70 / 60 70 50 70
DURANT OK 90 76 92 76 / 50 40 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page