936  
FXUS64 KOUN 250903  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
403 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024  
 
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS  
EVENING, BUT THERE ARE ALSO POTENTIAL COMPLICATIONS.  
 
A SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO MOVE TOWARD THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO PROGGED BY MOST  
MODELS TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES.  
 
IN THE BROAD SENSE, VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND  
SHEAR ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THESE PARAMETERS,  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND TORNADOES (AND POTENTIALLY STRONG  
TORNADOES) IF STORMS CAN TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THESE PARAMETERS.  
BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME QUESTIONS AND THINGS WE WILL BE WATCHING  
THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
FIRST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LATE ARRIVAL, AND  
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LIMIT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BEST MOISTURE  
ADVECTS. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED  
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA. THE CURRENT DEWPOINT AT KCSM AND  
KWWR IS 44 WITH KSPS DOWN TO 58 WITH A NORTH COMPONENT TO THE  
WIND. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO MIXED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST  
TEXAS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE MODELS DO NOT  
RECOGNIZE THIS YET. THERE ARE ISOLATED DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IN  
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD 70S DEWPOINTS ARE  
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX AND WINDS IN THAT AREA ARE  
CURRENTLY LIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND START  
ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO START ADVECTING NORTH, BUT SOME OF  
THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO RECOGNIZE THAT (A) IT MAY NOT ADVECT  
TOO FAR NORTH, AND (B) IT LIKELY WILL NOT ADVECT ALL THE WAY WEST  
TO THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO SET UP IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR  
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE LATTER, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP  
NEAR THE DRYLINE WOULD LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED INITIALLY, AND THE  
QUESTION WOULD BE IF THEY COULD PREVENT BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT  
BEFORE MOVING INTO BETTER MOISTURE. BUT EVEN THESE STORMS WOULD  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  
 
SO ANOTHER QUESTION IS WILL STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM  
SECTOR, PERHAPS WITH CONFLUENCE NEAR THE MOISTURE GRADIENT EAST OF  
THE PRIMARY DRYLINE. THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN  
OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW IN EASTERN  
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS, AND WE MAY NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT BACKING OF  
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS APART FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, BUT LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE LIKELY MORE LIMITED THERE. AND EVEN IF PORTIONS OF  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA MIX OUT MORE WITH THE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,  
THE PROGGED 850 MB FLOW IS STILL STRONGLY SOUTHERLY, SO WE MAY  
NOT SEE MUCH VEERING OF THE FLOW WEST OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT TO  
GET DECENT CONFLUENCE EXCEPT ON THE DRYLINE ITSELF. BUT WE HAVE  
SEEN CASES WHERE EVEN SUBTLE CONFLUENCE IS ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST  
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT, AND SOME OF THE CAMS DO SUGGEST SOME  
BACKING SO WE DEFINITELY CAN NOT WRITE OFF THE POTENTIAL.  
 
CLASSIC JET DYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF OKLAHOMA WOULD NOT BE IN  
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF LIFT WITH THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL  
DIFFLUENCE AND ASSOCIATED RISING MOTION THAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY  
ACROSS KANSAS AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. BUT COULD THIS BE  
OFFSET BY ANY SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES?  
 
AS FAR AS TORNADO POTENTIAL, THE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG  
UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THEREFORE  
INCREASES THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR. BUT SURFACE-BASED CIN WILL BE  
INCREASING THEN AS WELL SO WILL THERE BE ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO  
UTILIZE THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR?  
 
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND FACTORS THAT COMPLICATE  
THE FORECAST AND WE WILL BE WATCHING THESE CLOSELY TODAY, THE  
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE THAT WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA WILL  
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING  
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES IF THINGS COME TOGETHER RIGHT, SO WE  
ENCOURAGE OUR PARTNERS AND RESIDENTS TO PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIAL  
AND KEEP UPDATED WITH WEATHER SITUATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
MOST MODELS DEVELOP AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z GFS BOTH  
LOOK TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SO MAY BE A BIT TOO  
AGGRESSIVE WITH STORM COVERAGE. WHATEVER STORMS DO DEVELOP SHOULD  
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING. /26  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2024  
 
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND  
BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT THAT BRINGS A DRIER (BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY  
COOLER) AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS MOISTURE BEGINS  
RETURNING NORTH. BUT IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK  
ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS  
AND INTO THE AREA AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT. /26  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
SOME STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS.  
OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.  
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE E AND THEN THE SE OR S  
THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW AT SOME PLACES  
FOR MENTION IN TAF. STRONG, VARIABLE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 70 91 61 / 20 30 0 0  
HOBART OK 94 65 94 61 / 20 20 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 71 96 64 / 20 30 0 0  
GAGE OK 92 60 89 55 / 20 10 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 87 68 88 58 / 20 30 0 0  
DURANT OK 88 72 94 66 / 20 20 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM....26  
AVIATION...25  
 
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