643
FXUS64 KOUN 122245
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH DANGEROUS HEAT EACH AFTERNOON.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
- SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO HEAT
INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES (OFFERING MINIMAL RELIEF). LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOCALIZED HEAT INDICES OF 109 DEGREES ALREADY
OCCURRING (AS OF 1:05 PM) OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DAYTIME MIXING, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 20 PERCENT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COMING HOURS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ESPECIALLY LIKELY WITHIN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
ON THURSDAY, THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO
THE GULF COAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR US, THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE, A RISE IN TEMPERATURES, AND SEVERE STORM
CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
FOR HEAT INDICES/TEMPERATURES, WE HELD OFF (FOR NOW) ON ISSUING
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR TOMORROW. STILL, VERY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY FIRMLY IN PLACE.
THE ENHANCED RETURN FLOW SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60'S
FOR MOST AREAS, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES.
STILL, THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT) ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. WHILE THE BULK
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, WE COULD SEE THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A 30% TO 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 70+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND HAZARD, DRY LIGHTNING IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH
REGARD TO POTENTIAL FIRE IGNITIONS AND THE ERRATIC/SEVERE WINDS
COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE SPREAD. THEREFORE, IN COLLABORATION WITH OUR
PARTNERS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FOR THURSDAY.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS AND IF/WHEN THE BOUNDARY ENTERS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
REGARDLESS, HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY DESPITE
THE POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
STILL NO REAL EVIDENCE OF ANY COOLER OR WETTER WEATHER IN THE LONG-
RANGE PERIOD. TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST REMAINS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY/JUST OUTSIDE OF ANY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RAIN CHANCES. WHILE HEAT SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY TO RECUR, AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL
GET UP INTO THE 100S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MOST DAYS. FIRE
WEATHER WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PROBLEMATIC AT LEAST ONE, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE DAYS IN THE LONG TERM, AND THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
MOMENT WE GET A GOOD SOAKING RAIN AGAIN.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING PERIOD. ANOTHER
PREDAWN PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY PRIOR TO THE RETURN OF A GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 80 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 80 106 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 106 76 104 / 0 30 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 80 105 79 103 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 79 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>036.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09
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