724
FXUS64 KOUN 142351
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
651 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEFORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP US IN AN EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME TODAY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS. SIMILAR SETUP AS YESTERDAY, BUT WITH
LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STILL ANTICIPATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER
NORTH. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SURFACE HUMIDITY NEAR SATURATION
HAVE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER, STRONGER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE OR RAIN RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 OVER INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ENDING OVER THE REGION AND THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE
SFC, WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A WARM UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN.
IN TERMS OF RAIN, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-
LVL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT WITH THE
PATTERN SHIFT RAIN CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SHUT OFF THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
WITH A LINE OF STORMS PUSHING WESTWARD TOWARDS OKC/OUN IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS, ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING. ALL OTHER STORMS ARE NEAR OTHER SITES, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY THUNDER MENTION AND AMENDMENTS
WILL BE MADE WHERE NECESSARY IF A STORM POPS UP NEAR A SITE.
OTHERWISE, STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 89 70 90 / 0 20 10 10
HOBART OK 68 90 68 90 / 10 20 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 91 69 91 / 10 20 20 40
GAGE OK 67 91 67 92 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 89 71 90 / 0 20 0 10
DURANT OK 71 89 71 90 / 10 50 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...23
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