000
FXUS64 KOUN 160341
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE..
- COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TODAY/TONIGHT. COOL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE CURRENTLY NOT AS HIGH AS WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN ALREADY
RECEIVED WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPS FLOODING POTENTIAL IN PLAY. THERE
HAS BEEN AN AXIS OF 8 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NEAR THE BECKHAM-
GREER COUNTY LINE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH WASHITA, SOUTHEASTERN
CUSTER, CANADIAN, SOUTHERN KINGFISHER AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES, AND A MAJOR FLOOD WAVE IS MOVING DOWN THE CANADIAN
RIVER. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING, BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
REMOVE COUNTIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. FOR AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ARCHER CITY-ARDMORE-
ADA LINE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHTER (INCLUDING A
0.00" AT THE DURANT MESONET STATION SO FAR), SO FLOODING POTENTIAL
IS NOT AS HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
THE COOLER AIR THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH SUCH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WOULD BE
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL, BUT THE BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS, ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING, A 1035+ MB HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SITTING OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS, COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY MORNING. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE ISSUES A FREEZE WATCH
FOR HARPER AND ELLIS COUNTIES WHERE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY, BUT OTHER AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL AT
LEAST HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN LOW-LYING AND
SHELTERED AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DESPITE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK, AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING
QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 58 39 59 / 30 0 0 0
HOBART OK 47 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 61 39 61 / 60 0 0 0
GAGE OK 42 57 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 44 58 35 59 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 53 64 44 65 / 80 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ004-009.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...30
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