640
FXUS64 KOUN 190334
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR
- HOT & DRY STARTING SUNDAY WITH EXCESSIVE HEATING RETURNING THIS
UPCOMING WEEK PEAKING ON TUESDAY
- SOME RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT B MID-WEEK WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT PASSAGE
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE 20-40% POPS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF BOTH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO ALL OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY WITH OUR PERSISTING
UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
PROVIDING AMPLE MID-LEVEL ASCENT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR AS VIRGA EVAPORATING
INTO THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER WE COULD START SEEING
ISOLATED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING MAY
ERODE THE CAP SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
STRONGEST. THE ONLY SPOILER WOULD BE BROKEN CU BECOME DENSE ENOUGH
LIMITING AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY? ALTHOUGH MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL JUST SEE DENSE CU BUT LATEST CAMS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY
CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE OR BECOME SEVERE BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BASED ON FORECASTED DCAPE
VALUES. ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WOULD
BE VERY LOCALIZED. SINCE STORMS WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WOULD
EXPECT THEM TO BE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNDOWN ALONG WITH OUR DENSE CU
FIELD WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL HEATING TREND
WITH HOT MUGGY CONDITIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. NBM STILL SLOW HEATING UP SO TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER FOR THIS AFTERNOONS MAXT USING THE CONSMOS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW EXITING OUR AREA
SUNDAY AND RETREATING TO WESTERN TEXAS BEFORE OPENING UP MONDAY. AS
A RESULT FOR SUNDAY OUR WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL START BEING INFLUENCED
BY STRONG RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY JUST
SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOW.
HEATING TREND CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS IN THE RIDGE INCREASE.
HEAT INDICES BECOMING TRIPLE DIGIT WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY WITH SOME
AREAS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM. DID GO WARMER THAN NBM FOR SUNDAY'S MAXT
USING THE CONSSHORT NUDGED 40% TO CORRECT IT'S COOLER BIAS WHICH
BECOMES MORE REPRESENTATIVE FOR MONDAYS MAXT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TORCH (OR STRONG THERMAL RIDGE) WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH 850M TEMPERATURES OF 30-33 DEGREES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND THE YEAR SO FAR
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES. AND EVEN
WITH THE AREA BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS,
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME HEAT HEADLINES FOR TUESDAY.
THE FRONT MAY TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT OR LIFT BACK NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STILL, MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 100S,
EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH CENTRAL WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
90S.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH
THE EURO IN MAINTAINING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. 500
HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH 600DM BY FRIDAY. SO FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80 DEGREES. MULTIPLE DAYS WITH HEAT
HEADLINES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
PREVAILING VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF LOW/INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AT KPNC & KSWO
NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER DAYTIME PERIOD OF FAIR-WEATHER
CUMULUS AND WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CORES IS FORECAST.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 96 75 98 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 71 97 73 98 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 98 73 98 / 20 10 0 0
GAGE OK 70 96 72 99 / 10 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 94 76 98 / 20 10 0 0
DURANT OK 76 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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