669
FXUS64 KSJT 131239
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE (ABOVE 80%) OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HAIL UP TO AROUND 1
INCH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BEGUN TO MAKE
PROGRESS TO THE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN U. S., AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE INCREASED GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE STREAMING OVER THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW INDICATING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL.
TODAY, WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AT THE SURFACE,
BRINGING WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS. WHILE WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE AREA.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND OVER
THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF
THIS LIFT AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH PARTS OF OUR BIG COUNTRY BEING
AFFECTED, MAINLY AFTER 9 PM THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. WHILE
AREAS SOUTH OF A STERLING CITY TO BROWNWOOD LINE COULD SEE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEFORE SUNRISE, THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE SOUTHERN CONCHO VALLEY/HEARTLAND AREAS SOUTHWARD
WILL LIKELY BE AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH.
HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGREES,
WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST INTO THE
HEARTLAND AND HILL COUNTRY BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY INTO EVENING HOURS AS
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SWEEPS INTO THE AREA. IN GENERAL, QPF VALUES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH, WITH SOME MODELS LIKE
THE HRRR AND GFS ON THE LOWER SIDE AND THE NAMNEST ON THE HIGHER
SIDE. HREF ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
PROBABILITIES OF HALF INCH OR MORE SHOWING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
AROUND SAN ANGELO (20-40%) AND HIGH CHANCES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
(80% +). SYSTEM IS MOVING TOO FAST TO REALLY BE ANY KIND OF
DROUGHT BUSTER, BUT RAINFALL IS NEEDED AND THIS ONE HAS AT LEAST
THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING SOME APPRECIABLE TOTALS TO THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
15 TO 20 DEGREES NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS READINGS CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE KJCT AREA ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT
KSOA AND KBBD AS WELL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE IN BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,
BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING THEM AS TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN 4 SITES, WHERE TSRA MAY
ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 80 59 74 50 / 10 80 100 30
SAN ANGELO 80 56 74 47 / 0 70 90 10
JUNCTION 79 56 76 47 / 0 40 90 10
BROWNWOOD 80 57 73 48 / 0 60 100 20
SWEETWATER 77 58 72 50 / 10 90 80 20
OZONA 76 56 72 47 / 0 60 80 0
BRADY 78 59 74 50 / 0 50 100 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page