075
FXUS64 KSJT 142357
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
657 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, ALONG THE DRYLINE,
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MAY APPROACH OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WITH
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST...FROM THE DRYLINE AGAINST THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
STORMS OUT WEST AGAIN MOVE IN, BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO NEW MEXICO, BRINGING IN LIFT AND
MOISTURE. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THEN INTO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE CONDITIONS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN
ZONES BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SPC CONTINUES WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, THEN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST
PART WILL BE MVFR BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AT KSOA
TOMORROW MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
THAT LOW. CEILINGS WILL LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES WILL
PRECLUDE MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 63 79 64 80 / 0 50 60 50
SAN ANGELO 64 82 65 85 / 5 50 50 40
JUNCTION 63 80 65 83 / 10 50 50 40
BROWNWOOD 62 79 64 79 / 0 50 50 60
SWEETWATER 63 80 64 83 / 5 50 60 40
OZONA 64 79 65 83 / 10 40 40 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24
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