764
FXUS64 KSJT 231131
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL FLATTEN TODAY ACROSS TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE
DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING, WITH PLENTY OF
SUN TO HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. A
DRYLINE DEVELOPING OVER FAR WEST TEXAS MAY REACH AS FAR AS
CROCKETT AND STERLING COUNTIES BY THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE, SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET.
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
NOT GOING TO SEEM MUCH LIKE FALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. ALSO, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN TO OUR
WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER AIR IN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. ALSO, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
GOING WITH A MAINLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
FOR TUESDAY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECWMF IS STILL STRONGER AND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE AREA. ALSO, THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW(DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S), WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT
IN A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL HAVE TIME TO WATCH AND
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS(GLOBAL/CAMS) START INCREASING
INSTABILITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
REPORTED AT JCT AND SOA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND AFFECT SJT AND BBD AIRPORTS TEMPORARILY THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS PICK UP THIS MORNING,
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WILL GUST OVER 25 KT AT TIMES TODAY. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 67 89 58 / 5 5 0 0
SAN ANGELO 86 66 89 61 / 5 5 0 0
JUNCTION 87 66 89 62 / 5 5 0 0
BROWNWOOD 87 66 88 60 / 5 5 0 0
SWEETWATER 87 66 89 58 / 5 10 0 0
OZONA 83 66 86 62 / 5 5 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...08
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