312  
FXUS64 KSJT 251942  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)  
 
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE VERY HOT  
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH  
MONDAY, RESULTING IN AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE  
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES,  
WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 103 AND 107. A FEW  
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY MAY  
APPROACH 108 TO 110 DEGREES. WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT  
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 7  
PM MONDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY, BUT HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE  
NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL USING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  
 
DANIELS  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL  
WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA, AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH A  
COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS  
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AND COULD ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND.  
THE ECMWF BRINGS IS STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH  
THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE GFS  
HAS A MUCH WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR. HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS HINT AT  
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA  
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 78 106 78 101 / 0 0 5 10  
SAN ANGELO 75 107 77 104 / 0 0 0 5  
JUNCTION 75 103 75 101 / 0 0 0 0  
BROWNWOOD 75 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 20  
SWEETWATER 77 108 77 100 / 0 0 5 10  
OZONA 73 103 74 100 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-  
HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-  
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-  
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-  
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page