410
FXUS64 KSJT 240754
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
254 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, MAY MOVE EAST INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH GFS
MUCAPES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEARS OF 40 KTS, SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. WITH FEWER SHORT RANGE CAMS MODELS
INDICATING CONVECTION, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LESS THAN TUESDAY. HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE.
IT WILL BE OTHERWISE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AREAS FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY COULD HIT 90 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AN
UPPER 60...AS CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND TEMPERATURES UP.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST, WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE IN OUR AREA. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING IN ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WE COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 TO JUST WEST OF THE AREA THAT COULD AFFECT THE
BIG COUNTRY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ATTENDANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AS WELL AS
AN APPROACHING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE
COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
JUST WEST OF THE AREA, WITH STORMS AFFECTING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. AGAIN, ANY OF THE STORMS THAT FORM
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE TO SEVERE LEVELS, WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U. S. ONCE AGAIN, MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER THE AREA AS WELL, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN WHICH SHOULD INITIATE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE.
EXPECT GENERALLY QUIETER WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT,
WITH TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS MID MORNING AT KSOA AND KJCT FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. CEILING RISE TO VFR EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KABI THIS EVENING, BUT WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY. SOUTH WIND GUSTS TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILING WILL RETURN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 84 63 86 / 20 10 80 0
SAN ANGELO 68 85 63 89 / 0 10 60 0
JUNCTION 68 88 67 91 / 0 10 30 10
BROWNWOOD 67 82 64 86 / 10 10 70 30
SWEETWATER 67 82 62 85 / 20 20 70 0
OZONA 67 82 63 88 / 0 10 40 0
BRADY 68 83 66 86 / 0 10 50 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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