126
FXUS64 KSJT 280725
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS PASSABLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
- HOT AGAIN ON TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A FEW AREAS
MAY EVEN APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AS OF 1 AM, ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RETREATING
DRYLINE FROM FISHER COUNTY INTO SCURRY COUNTY. THE NAMNST SEEMS TO
HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FAIRLY WELL AND DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND MOVES IT EAST
OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 60 KNOTS, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SUCH
DEVELOPMENT.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST AGAIN LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THIS POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW. IF A STORM IS
ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEN LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS, TO
THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE
CAM'S AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS (20 PERCENT) ACROSS THIS AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY BEHIND
THE FRONT, TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING BY AND OVERRUNNING THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. GOING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES OF RAIN MID TO LATE THIS WEEK. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS
MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLEASE KEEP UP WITH
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS THE MONTH OF APRIL IS SEVERE
WEATHER SEASON AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. ALSO, WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME REDUCTION TO VISIBILITIES AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK, AS
HZ AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS. STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID TO
LATE MORNING, ALONG WITH IMPROVING VISIBILITIES. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AT KSJT AND KABI AFTER 15Z, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 97 58 73 58 / 10 0 0 20
SAN ANGELO 96 61 81 60 / 0 0 10 40
JUNCTION 95 66 84 60 / 10 10 30 40
BROWNWOOD 93 59 73 57 / 10 0 10 30
SWEETWATER 98 58 75 58 / 0 0 0 20
OZONA 93 66 86 62 / 0 10 20 40
BRADY 93 64 77 60 / 10 10 20 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...24
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