285
FXUS64 KSJT 082328
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
528 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AGAIN
TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT WITH
MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS MAY SET THE
STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. PATCHY FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE BOUNDARY STALLS BUT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY (HIGHS POTENTIALLY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FURTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ON
SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCE OF 40 TO 50
PERCENT SATURDAY IS ALONG/EAST OF A HASKELL...ABILENE...SAN ANGELO
LINE. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. SPC HAS GENERAL THUNDER MAINLY NORTH OF EAST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUDS BEGIN CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EAST OF A HASKELL...ABILENE....BRADY LINE, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WEST
CENTRAL THROUGH THE MID AND LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TUESDAY, AND 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE RETURNS THURSDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO IFR
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE
RAGGED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND WILL THEREFORE BE VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY
MVFR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 57 67 59 67 / 20 30 20 50
SAN ANGELO 60 72 60 70 / 10 10 10 30
JUNCTION 60 74 62 73 / 10 0 10 20
BROWNWOOD 61 75 61 71 / 20 20 10 50
SWEETWATER 56 65 58 65 / 10 20 20 30
OZONA 60 68 59 70 / 0 10 0 10
BRADY 60 74 62 71 / 10 10 10 40
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SK
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