539
FXUS64 KSJT 051100
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER WEST TODAY,
CONTINUING TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.
WITH MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BRINGING IN GOOD
AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE, SOME AREAS IN THE NW HILL COUNTRY AND
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUD COVER DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT BY MID
MORNING. STRONG INSOLATION, SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE, AND INCREASING THICKNESSES AS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER
EXPANDS INTO OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TICK UPWARDS WITH
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE SEEING HIGHS
IN THE 100-103 RANGE. FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO HELPS TO KEEP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MODESTLY STRONG OVER THE CWA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA WITH THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN - THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE WITH A 35KT+ LOW
LEVEL JET, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
NEXT TO NOTHING EACH DAY, GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE EACH AFTERNOON.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION, 850 TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
FROM ABOUT 23 DEG C TO 27 DEG C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOW 100S EACH DAY, WITH MORE HEAT ADVISORIES
LIKELY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SCATTERED LOWER
CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KSOA (AND KJCT TO A LESSER DEGREE)
GENERALLY BETWEEN 14-16Z BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WILL PICK UP AFTER 14Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 12-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
AROUND SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 101 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 99 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 98 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 100 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 100 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 95 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 98 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...50
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