289
FXUS64 KSJT 021113
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
613 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
...INCREASED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WE CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN A WEAK TROUGHING REGIME IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM. THE NOTABLE CHANGE IS THE PRESENCE OF A 500 MB JET
MAX WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SOME PEAK
HEATING INSOLATION. THIS WILL HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NM/TX
BORDER DOWN THROUGH THE TRANS PECOS REGION. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE REGION
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-
3000 J/KG RANGE, THANKS TO CONTINUED SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST KEEPING GULF MOISTURE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE ABUNDANT
WITH EBWD VALUES IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. STORMS WILL QUICKLY GROW
SEVERE OFF OF THE DRYLINE WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GROW UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY INTO AN MCS WHERE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
STILL A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY. SPC HAS ENLARGED THEIR PREVIOUS
ENHANCED RISK TO INCLUDE AREAS WEST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO
SONORA LINE WITH THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISKS TAPERING OFF TO THE
EAST. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
PROPAGATION OF THE MCS. MANY CAMS KEEP THE MCS A MORE LINEAR, BOWING
FEATURE AS IT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SPLIT
THE MCS INTO 2 SECTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN SPLIT MOVING THROUGH THE
BIG COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN SPLIT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE INITIAL
OPTION FOR THE FORECAST GIVEN THE GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIKELY
HELPING THE MCS MAINTAIN ITS STRUCTURE AND ALLOWING IT TO FULLY
MATURE. AS ALWAYS, SHOULD THIS SCENARIO LOOK TO CHANGE WITH UPDATED
GUIDANCE, ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE IN THE COVERAGE OF POPS.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATER
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WE ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE THESE STORMS LOOK TO MAINTAIN DECENT
FORWARD SPEED, HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS SEEN DECENT
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS THANKS TO PREVIOUS MCS ACTIVITY.
SOILS REMAIN DECENTLY SATURATED AND WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1.2
INCHES, THESE STORMS COULD VERY EASILY PRODUCE A QUICK 0.75 OF AN
INCH OR MORE. BE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO YOU AREN'T CAUGHT OFF
GUARD IF/WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS YOUR AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW PROVIDING FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY END UP SEEING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND
THIS IS WHEN THE BEST OVERALL POPS WILL BE.
VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FOR PARTS
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MANY OF THE
TIME PERIODS, ALTHOUGH CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH A LACK OF MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH, WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. WE'RE
STARTING TO SEE SOME LOW STRATUS WORK THEIR WAY NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH KSOA CURRENTLY SEEING THE IMPACTS. THESE
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO KJCT AND KSJT IN THE COMING
HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS, KABI SHOULD STAY VFR WITH KBBD
LIKELY ON THE FRINGES SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUPING THERE. ALL
SITES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE A COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 23Z. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR
TIMING AT EACH SITE IN THIS PACKAGE BUT WITH UPDATED GUIDANCE,
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 87 63 85 64 / 10 70 30 40
SAN ANGELO 90 64 87 62 / 10 60 40 40
JUNCTION 89 65 88 64 / 0 30 20 40
BROWNWOOD 90 64 89 65 / 0 50 20 40
SWEETWATER 87 62 84 62 / 40 70 40 50
OZONA 86 64 83 62 / 10 40 40 40
BRADY 87 64 87 64 / 0 40 20 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...50
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