275
FXUS64 KSJT 202336
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
536 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE DECREASING
FRIDAY. THERE'S A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EVENT ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN AND NEAR THE CITY OF
MENARD, WITH WIDESPREAD 2-6 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM NORTHERN
KIMBLE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SAN SABA AND BROWN COUNTIES. THIS
ALL DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES, AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HIGH RES CAMS INDICATE THIS PERSISTENT BAND OF
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING BACK TO THE
WEST, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE BIG BEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON'S FLASH FLOOD EVENT. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM(CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST US) WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT STRONG
LIFT, ABUNDANT MOISTURE(PW VALUES 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES), AND A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES(50-80%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL(15-40%) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE FLASH FLOODING.
ALSO, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE(5-15%) OF A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS THIS STORM SYSTEM DUE TO WEAK/LOCALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND GOOD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
LOOK FOR A DRY AND COOLER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH KSJT AROUND 00Z AND KABI 1Z
WILL TEMPORARILY BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 KTS
AND BLOWING DUST FOR A COUPLE HOURS. IFR CEILINGS OTHERWISE RETURN
TO KBBD AND KJCT TOWARD MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CEILINGS AT KBBD AND KJCT DISSIPATE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 53 74 45 70 / 40 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 50 74 43 70 / 30 0 0 20
JUNCTION 54 75 47 72 / 50 20 10 20
BROWNWOOD 53 75 44 71 / 60 10 0 10
SWEETWATER 50 72 46 68 / 40 0 0 10
OZONA 51 74 46 71 / 30 0 0 30
BRADY 55 72 48 70 / 60 20 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BROWN-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA-SUTTON.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...04
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