090
FXUS64 KSJT 142334
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT STILL POSSIBLE OR EVEN LIKELY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALL THE FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE LAST FEW
FORECASTS ARE STILL THERE, A WEAK MCV SPINNING ACROSS THE AREA IN
A HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE MCV WHEN THE CONVECTION
IS GOING FULL BLOWN, IT SHOWS UP BETTER AS THE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THUS, IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE MCV LOCATION IS SHOWING UP BETWEEN
DEL RIO AND THE SUTTON/CROCKETT COUNTY LINE. WHERE THIS MCV GOES
FROM HERE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT MEANING IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER AROUND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHEREVER THE MCV WANDERS TONIGHT, A 20-30KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP ON ITS EAST SIDE AND CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BLOSSOM. SOME MODELS HAVE THIS STAYING SOUTH OF SJT'S AREA,
WHILE OTHERS HAVE THE MCV FARTHER WEST AND ALLOWING THIS AREA OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS CROCKETT AND SUTTON
COUNTIES. THIS AREA SAW ANYWHERE FROM 3-5+ INCHES OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT (AND 5-9 INCHES OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS). ITS SO ROCKY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THAT HAVING THE SOIL
SATURATED DOESN'T MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL,
BUT THE SOIL IS DEFINITELY SATURATED ANYWAY AND NORMALLY DRY
CREEKS ARE FULL. THE EVOLUTION FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO FLASH
FLOODING HAPPENS EVEN FASTER IN THESE SITUATIONS. SITUATION WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
TAKE QUICK ACTIONS SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
ONCE WE GET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, MOST BUT NOT ALL THE MODELS
HAVE THE RAINFALL TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY AND THEN
REDEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AGAIN,
WHERE THE MCV ENDS UP WILL BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY DRIFT THE MCV A LITTLE TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. OF CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE
THE NAM SHOW A MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING (40+ KTS)
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY
TOMORROW NIGHT. IF THIS DOES DEVELOP AND IF THE MCV IS THERE
(BOTH BIG IF'S THIS FAR IN ADVANCE), THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND PERHAPS SAN
ANGELO.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC AND THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOLKS AND
WILL SEE A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE HIGH AND MODERATE ERO'S
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR DAY 2 AND DAY 3.
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY WELL LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT THERE ARE SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THAT WILL
NOT GO INTO MUCH DETAIL. MCV DOES EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AND THE
LATEST MODEL BLENDS ARE ENDING PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WE HAD A FEW TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS,
BUT ALL SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS OF 2330Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CEILINGS AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN SITES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE FOR TSRA TO AFFECT
MAINLY THE KJCT AND KSOA SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, AS WELL AS A
CHANCE FOR ALL SITES TO SEE TSRA AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 68 86 68 84 / 30 50 30 50
SAN ANGELO 66 82 65 81 / 50 70 70 90
JUNCTION 66 84 66 83 / 60 70 70 70
BROWNWOOD 68 84 67 84 / 40 60 40 50
SWEETWATER 67 84 67 83 / 30 50 30 60
OZONA 65 81 64 80 / 70 70 90 100
BRADY 66 82 66 81 / 40 60 60 70
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CONCHO-CROCKETT-IRION-
KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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