231  
FXUS64 KSJT 290756  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
256 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
   
..NEW LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
 
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ACROSS  
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR  
THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.  
 
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA  
TONIGHT.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THIS WEEKEND WITH  
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
 
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL  
TEXAS TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS  
AFTERNOON, FROM 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.  
THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND A DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TODAY SHOULD  
RESULT IN A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND  
CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO  
MID 90S TODAY. THESE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH  
GUSTY WINDS AND RH VALUES IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE, WILL  
YIELD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY TODAY (SEE FIRE  
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS). THE FIRE WEATHER  
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG  
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM  
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 50S  
TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
 
EXPECT MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR  
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE NEXT  
WEEK. EXPECT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM 850 TEMPERATURES TO  
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL  
BE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.  
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY  
SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY MORNING, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN HEARTLAND. A MORE  
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM/STATIONARY FRONT  
WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS  
WEEK(FRIDAY) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST  
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WEATHER AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR UNDER  
DEVELOPING STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS  
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z. KABI LOOKS TO HAVE A  
BETTER CHANCE OF AVOIDING THE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING, THOUGH  
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS  
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE  
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. GUSTY SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS KABI AND KSJT  
TERMINALS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.  
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS KJCT,  
KSOA, AND KBBD WILL BECOME BREEZY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KANSAS WILL INCREASE  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY, WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRYLINE, STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS  
SHOULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE  
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING TO OCCUR WITH MODELS SHOWING RH VALUES INTO  
THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD REACH MID 80S TO MID 90, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE  
20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK  
AND VEGETATION DRYNESS IN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE, THERE IS A  
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS  
AREA. THEREFOR THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED  
FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO  
VALLEY FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 92 63 86 48 / 0 10 0 0  
SAN ANGELO 91 60 87 48 / 0 20 0 0  
JUNCTION 90 61 90 48 / 0 20 10 0  
BROWNWOOD 92 59 88 47 / 10 20 10 0  
SWEETWATER 92 62 84 48 / 0 0 0 0  
OZONA 87 60 85 52 / 0 20 0 0  
BRADY 90 62 88 50 / 0 20 10 0  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-  
TAYLOR.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TP  
LONG TERM....21  
AVIATION...TP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page