596
FXUS64 KSJT 241124
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2019
UPDATE
AVIATION
/12Z TAFS/
RAGGED MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATER
THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING
ACROSS THE REGION MAY CAUSE RAPID WINDSHIFTS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS ON THE
AIRFIELD SHOULD BE BRIEF.
SK
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2019/
SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
EARLY THIS MORNING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM JUST
EAST OF SAN SABA ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE PERMIAN
BASIN. A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM LINE WERE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CONCHO
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. LOOKING ALOFT, THE AXIS OF A 500MB TROUGH WAS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES WERE MAKING THEIR WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE REMAINED IN THE 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MESSY
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER MORNING STRATUS CLEARS OUT
BY NOONTIME, INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5000-6000J/KG
ONCE AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON
WHERE THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES RESIDE AND HOW MUCH RETURN FLOW
OCCURS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND, HOWEVER,
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH MORE RAGGED DEVELOPMENT
TODAY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
MODE, POPS WERE KEPT TO THE 20-30% RANGE AND FOCUSED MAINLY FROM
THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING
BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO, AND ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH LATE
EVENING, DEPENDING ON HOW WELL IT GETS ORGANIZED. FOR NOW, WE'LL
SHOW 20-30% POPS CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN
TAPERING OFF THEREAFTER.
SK
LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)
ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRAVERSE THE RIDGE INTO
THE AREA, BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US FROM
HAVING TO EXPERIENCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S,
WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY IN
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY. FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
MODELS SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO AND WEAKENING THE RIDGE,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORMS, BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW, AS WE STAY ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE'S AXIS, WHICH WOULD GENERALLY HAVE LESS
OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
20
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 87 70 91 69 / 30 20 10 20
SAN ANGELO 91 70 94 69 / 30 20 10 10
JUNCTION 92 70 90 69 / 30 30 30 10
BROWNWOOD 86 70 89 69 / 30 20 10 10
SWEETWATER 90 70 93 69 / 20 20 10 20
OZONA 91 69 90 67 / 30 20 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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