690
FXUS64 KSJT 151901
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS COLD, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND COOL AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN RESULT OF
THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OWING TO LEE TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH.
WITH SOUTH WINDS, INCREASING MOISTURE, AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER,
DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. AND ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW, DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING
SUNSHINE, HIGHS TUESDAY WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUD COVER OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE BIG COUNTRY,
AND 70-75 FARTHER SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY NORTH WINDS. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ANTICIPATE SOME FAVORED LOW-LYING AREAS TO HAVE
LOWS 30-32 DEGREES. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE FRIDAY, AS
LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WITH SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES,
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A STRENGTHENED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY (DECEMBER 20) ARE 85 AT SAN ANGELO AND 84 AT
ABILENE (RECORDS AT BOTH LOCATIONS SET IN 2010). A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
LITTLE COOLER BUT STILL WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.
IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO BUILD OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF KSJT, KABI AND
KSOA LATE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AT ALL SITES, IT'S JUST A BIT
SLOWER THAN MODELS HAD DEPICTED. OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KSOA
AND KJCT COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING MAINLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE, OUR CURRENT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 45 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 43 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 42 65 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 40 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 44 70 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 41 63 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 44 65 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20
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