075  
FXUS64 KSJT 142357  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
657 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOWER 80S. CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA  
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO  
MID 60S.  
 
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON  
HOURS SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, IN  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20  
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL  
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, ALONG THE DRYLINE,  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN  
WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MAY APPROACH OUR  
WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WITH  
COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MOVING EAST...FROM THE DRYLINE AGAINST THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING.  
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS  
STORMS OUT WEST AGAIN MOVE IN, BUT COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO NEW MEXICO, BRINGING IN LIFT AND  
MOISTURE. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS THEN INTO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE CONDITIONS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN  
ZONES BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE REST OF THE REGION.  
 
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BE POSSIBLE  
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED FLOODING  
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SPC CONTINUES WITH A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS, THEN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST  
PART WILL BE MVFR BUT COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AT KSOA  
TOMORROW MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO  
THAT LOW. CEILINGS WILL LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES WILL  
PRECLUDE MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 63 79 64 80 / 0 50 60 50  
SAN ANGELO 64 82 65 85 / 5 50 50 40  
JUNCTION 63 80 65 83 / 10 50 50 40  
BROWNWOOD 62 79 64 79 / 0 50 50 60  
SWEETWATER 63 80 64 83 / 5 50 60 40  
OZONA 64 79 65 83 / 10 40 40 20  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DANIELS  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...24  
 
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