505
FXUS64 KSJT 281953
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
253 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT TONIGHT MAINLY THE CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX) WAS MOVING
EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM EAST OF BROWN COUNTY TO JUST
WEST OF MULLIN, THEN EXTENDING WEST OVER THE COLORADO RIVER TO
BETWEEN GOULDBUSK (SOUTHERN COLEMAN COUNTY) AND LOHN (NORTHERN
MCCULLOCH COUNTY). THIS MAY BE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA MAINLY EAST OF A ROTAN TO SAN ANGELO
TO JUNCTION LINE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY (ML CAPE VALUES 1500-
2000 J/KG) AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-60 KNOTS, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS, AND THERE IS A LOW RISK (2%) FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.4 INCHES. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 IN THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON, IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT. THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGER PART OF THE AREA SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
80S IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY, TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THURSDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING TIME PERIOD
WEATHER WISE, AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM12 MODEL INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY BY LATE EVENING, AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
MIDNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY, SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
(ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THEN, BY
LATE EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CLUSTERED TOGETHER AS IT
INCREASES IN COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER), DAMAGING
WINDS (60-70 MPH), AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, A MARGINAL RISK (5% CHANCE) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERWARDS, A MORE RIDGE LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER,
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A
LOW (20%) RAIN CHANCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY HITTING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER BROWN
COUNTY AT MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER
AN EXPANDED AREA, MAINLY EAST OF A ROTAN TO SAN ANGELO TO
JUNCTION LINE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION. CURRENTLY CARRYING PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA AT KABI AND KBBD. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND UPDATE OUR TAFS AS NEEDED. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO LATE EVENING, AND EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN COVERAGE. EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER MAY PERSIST INTO LATE
MORNING THURSDAY, BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT BY
THAT TIME. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 6-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN BY MID-
TO-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT DECREASED WINDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 64 85 62 78 / 20 20 40 20
SAN ANGELO 64 92 63 79 / 10 10 40 20
JUNCTION 64 90 64 81 / 20 10 40 30
BROWNWOOD 63 86 62 80 / 40 20 40 20
SWEETWATER 64 85 62 79 / 10 20 30 20
OZONA 65 90 66 79 / 10 10 50 30
BRADY 65 89 64 78 / 30 10 50 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...19
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