506
FXUS64 KSJT 291921
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
221 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER KANSAS, WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PERHAPS GRADUALLY SHIFT A BIT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ON FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOME OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, MAINLY EAST
OF A CLYDE TO BRADY TO JUNCTION LINE. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
OUR AREA TONIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND LOWS 70-75 DEGREES.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS 93-97
DEGREES. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF OUR AREA. CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTHEAST OF A SAN SABA
TO SONORA LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN
OTHER PARTS OF OUR AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE
POP PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
A 500MB RIDGE OVER KANSAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE.
WHILE THIS SHOULD ALLOW HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE, A FEW
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MAY
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN CHANGE SETTING UP FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN US, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-2.5 INCHES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING BACK UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE AMOUNTS, CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ALSO APPEAR
TO BE FALLING TO AROUND 90, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION, POSSIBLY STALLING FOR A FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY, WPC QPF
VALUES ARE UNDER AN INCH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE VERY LOW EXPECTED COVERAGE, THE CHANCE OF
ANY TERMINAL BEING AFFECTED IS MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 73 95 75 97 / 5 10 0 5
SAN ANGELO 72 96 74 98 / 5 10 0 10
JUNCTION 71 96 73 97 / 20 20 0 20
BROWNWOOD 73 96 75 99 / 10 10 0 10
SWEETWATER 72 93 75 96 / 5 10 0 5
OZONA 73 94 73 96 / 5 10 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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