638
FXUS64 KSJT 301930
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT.
- A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
BARRY ARE RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE REMNANT COLD FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS
BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
OUR AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES THIS WEEK, WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL (30-40%) WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGH (1.75 TO 2+ INCHES), WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, DUE TO THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH, TO THE LOWER 90S NORTH.
A RETURN TO DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND,
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY AFFECTING KABI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KSOA TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, TO DECREASE
BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 91 73 91 / 40 20 20 20
SAN ANGELO 70 88 70 86 / 30 20 20 30
JUNCTION 68 89 70 87 / 20 30 20 30
BROWNWOOD 71 93 72 92 / 20 20 10 10
SWEETWATER 70 89 72 89 / 60 30 20 30
OZONA 68 82 68 82 / 30 30 30 40
BRADY 69 91 70 89 / 10 20 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...DANIELS
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