126
FXUS64 KSJT 240430
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1030 PM CST THU JAN 23 2020
AVIATION
/06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 556 PM CST THU JAN 23 2020/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED. 20
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST THU JAN 23 2020/
SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)
QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
MOST AREAS. A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES HIGHS WILL RETURN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS INDICATED THIS WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR OUR AREA.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECTING SOME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NOT INCLUDING ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER, BUT WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A LIMITED WINDOW FOR
MOISTURE RETURN. CARRYING LOW POPS FOR OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES, JUST
MENTIONING SHOWERS FOR NOW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
PROGGED LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW HOURS
OF GUSTY NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. AFTER HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON TUESDAY.
A THIRD UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER
ON THE DETAILS WITH THE ECMWF WEAKER AND DRIER FOR OUR AREA. AT
THIS TIME, LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND CARRYING LOW
POPS FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 33 62 40 67 / 0 0 0 5
SAN ANGELO 31 67 41 67 / 0 0 0 5
JUNCTION 34 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 5
BROWNWOOD 31 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 5
SWEETWATER 36 62 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 35 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 5
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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