764  
FXUS64 KSJT 231131  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
631 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST.  
RIDGING ALOFT WILL FLATTEN TODAY ACROSS TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.  
LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY  
REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE  
DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID MORNING, WITH PLENTY OF  
SUN TO HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. A  
DRYLINE DEVELOPING OVER FAR WEST TEXAS MAY REACH AS FAR AS  
CROCKETT AND STERLING COUNTIES BY THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE, SO HAVE INCLUDED  
MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET.  
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID  
60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
NOT GOING TO SEEM MUCH LIKE FALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER  
90S. ALSO, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES,  
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SHARPEN TO OUR  
WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,  
BRINGING COOLER AIR IN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
70S. ALSO, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT  
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.  
 
GOING WITH A MAINLY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER  
FOR TUESDAY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.  
THE ECWMF IS STILL STRONGER AND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC  
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE AREA. ALSO, THE  
COMBINATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW(DEWPOINTS IN THE  
60S), WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT  
IN A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL HAVE TIME TO WATCH AND  
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS(GLOBAL/CAMS) START INCREASING  
INSTABILITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE  
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS  
REPORTED AT JCT AND SOA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE  
NORTHWARD AND AFFECT SJT AND BBD AIRPORTS TEMPORARILY THROUGH  
ABOUT 15Z. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WINDS PICK UP THIS MORNING,  
WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH  
TO SOUTHWEST WILL GUST OVER 25 KT AT TIMES TODAY. ISOLATED  
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 86 67 89 58 / 5 5 0 0  
SAN ANGELO 86 66 89 61 / 5 5 0 0  
JUNCTION 87 66 89 62 / 5 5 0 0  
BROWNWOOD 87 66 88 60 / 5 5 0 0  
SWEETWATER 87 66 89 58 / 5 10 0 0  
OZONA 83 66 86 62 / 5 5 0 0  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...08  
LONG TERM....21  
AVIATION...08  
 
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