514  
FXUS64 KSJT 200931  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
431 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES  
THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER SOUTH, AND SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED LIGHT  
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA.  
 
THIS LOW TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH  
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY, IS OUT AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH TO  
THE WEST. COMPLICATING THINGS A LITTLE MORE IS THAT THE REMNANTS  
OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA  
TODAY FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THIS MORNING  
TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALL COMBINE TO GIVE  
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR  
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARD OUR  
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF AN ABILENE TO OZONA  
LINE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS DANGEROUS  
LIGHTNING. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM, MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT.  
 
20  
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
   
..GOOD RAIN POTENTIAL
 
 
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME  
EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN, ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO  
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH, AND REMNANTS OF THE  
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM, WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD RAIN  
CHANCES, FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT, FROM OUR INTERSTATE 20  
CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BY  
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NUMBERS LIKELY AROUND  
2 INCHES, FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIODS, SOME SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN MAY PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AFTER  
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH  
ENOUGH, AT THIS TIME, TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. NEVERTHELESS,  
DEVELOPING CONDITIONS WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF THE POTENTIAL  
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES  
DIMINISH, AS THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 88 71 79 62 / 20 40 80 60  
SAN ANGELO 86 72 81 64 / 30 50 70 60  
JUNCTION 85 72 80 68 / 30 50 60 60  
BROWNWOOD 87 72 82 66 / 30 30 70 70  
SWEETWATER 87 69 77 59 / 20 60 80 60  
OZONA 81 70 80 64 / 30 50 60 60  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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