938
FXUS64 KSJT 122249
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
549 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS OF EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM
THE CONCHO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THESE FEATURES WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG, SO THE AIRMASS SHOULD
BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR POPCORN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVEN AWAY
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND BE FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
MORNING, THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
BUT REMAIN POSITIVELY-TILTED. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
LOCATED OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY BY MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.5-2.0
INCHES, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS. AS OF THIS MORNING, WPC SHOWS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THREAT OF MARGINAL FOR AN AREA ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ABILENE TO SONORA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT TOWARD OKLAHOMA/KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL, WE ARE EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE
THAN WHAT IS FORECAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY
APPROACHING 100.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME CENTERED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE CORE OF THE HEAT TO OUR
NORTHEAST, BUT HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 95 74 99 / 20 20 0 10
SAN ANGELO 71 94 72 97 / 20 20 10 10
JUNCTION 70 94 71 95 / 20 50 10 20
BROWNWOOD 70 94 71 97 / 20 30 0 20
SWEETWATER 72 96 75 99 / 10 10 0 10
OZONA 70 93 71 96 / 30 30 10 10
BRADY 71 92 71 94 / 20 40 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...21
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