312
FXUS64 KSJT 251942
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2019
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY, RESULTING IN AN 850MB THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 103 AND 107. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY MAY
APPROACH 108 TO 110 DEGREES. WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 7
PM MONDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY, BUT HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE
NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL USING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
DANIELS
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA, AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AND COULD ALSO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF BRINGS IS STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH
THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE GFS
HAS A MUCH WEAKER PUSH OF COLD AIR. HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS HINT AT
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 78 106 78 101 / 0 0 5 10
SAN ANGELO 75 107 77 104 / 0 0 0 5
JUNCTION 75 103 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 75 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 20
SWEETWATER 77 108 77 100 / 0 0 5 10
OZONA 73 103 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COKE-FISHER-
HASKELL-IRION-JONES-NOLAN-RUNNELS-STERLING-TAYLOR-TOM GREEN.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page