799
FXUS64 KSJT 202337
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
537 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THE COLD AIRMASS IS PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS, AS SHOWN BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WHILE A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RIDE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF BROWNSVILLE
OVERNIGHT AND HELP TURN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHILE WRAPPING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A NOTABLE INVERSION AND THE ENTIRE SATURATED COLUMN
BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF A HALF
INCH TO ONE INCH OF SNOW HAVE DROPPED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 10-20
PERCENT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW CHANCES IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT,
BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION CAN CAUSE SLICK SPOTS TO OCCUR ON THE ROADWAYS. FURTHER
NORTH, FLURRIES TO PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW COULD OCCUR. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
TONIGHT WITH STEADY NORTH WINDS, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
CHILLS BELOW TEN DEGREES TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
CLEAR OUT. AFTER DAYS OF COLD WEATHER, THE SOIL TEMPERATURES HAVE
LOWERED TO THE 30S FOR MOST PLACES. THEREFORE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 30S FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
LOWS IN TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 10 TO 18 DEGREE RANGE, AND A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ANOTHER HARD FREEZE
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
A STEADY WARMUP IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60S, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
GETTING BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 70. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY,
SENDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING THE KBBD AND KJCT
TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. REGARDLESS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 18 34 24 54 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 20 34 22 56 / 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 19 36 16 54 / 40 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 19 36 18 55 / 20 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 17 34 26 54 / 10 0 0 0
OZONA 20 35 20 53 / 20 0 0 0
BRADY 21 34 19 55 / 30 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...42
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