584
FXUS64 KSJT 131949
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
149 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (30%-60%) RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH
IS 15 TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NOVEMBER 14TH DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR ABILENE IS 84 AND 88 FOR SAN ANGELO. ABILENE HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THIS RECORD, WHILE SAN ANGELO HAS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD.
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. STRATUS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM
17 TO 20 DEG F, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR! FOR REFERENCE, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND RANGE FROM 85-88, SO THESE ARE LIKELY TO
BE TIED OR BROKEN ON AT LEAST ONE OF THE DAYS. DESPITE THE INTRUSION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM WESTERLY WINDS. THE MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A HIGH OF 92 IN SAN ANGELO, BUT FOR NOW, WE'LL STICK WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF 88.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO BACK-TO-BACK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US. THE FIRST,
WHICH MODELS SHOW PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY, SHOULD RESULT IN WARM AND CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. IN IT'S WAKE, THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, WHILE THE EURO SHOWS IT STALLING IN KANSAS. REGARDLESS,
MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO BE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT COULD DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ADVECTED
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT, MODELS SHOW AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AMOUNTS,
SEVERITY, AND TIMING COULD VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE TRACK OF THE MAIN TROUGH EVOLVES. FOR NOW,
THIS FEATURE WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER DETAILS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN 3 SITES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 58 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 56 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 55 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 54 84 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 57 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 53 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 56 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...DANIELS
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