585
FXUS64 KSJT 022312
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER
BEHIND THIS RATHER WEAK BOUNDARY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
KANSAS WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA,
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO OVER 20C, AND SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ADDING A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. MODELS HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR
MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. RECORD HIGHS FOR ABILENE ARE 106 (2000)
FOR THURSDAY AND 107 (2023) FOR FRIDAY SO RECORDS NOT LIKELY IN
JEOPARDY AT THIS POINT.
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY NEW TROPICAL STORM LORENA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND IF/HOW IT
COMBINES SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LORENA IS FORECASTED BY NHC TO RECURVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
THEN SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS ITS GETS ABSORBED INTO A PASSING SHORTWAVE. THIS FAR
OUT, TRYING TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP, OR
WHERE THE DIFFERENT PIECES OF IT MAY END UP AS IT BREAKS APART, IS
A HUGE UNCERTAINTY.
MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WOULD LIKELY HAVE
AT LEASE SOME POP CHANCES WITH THE FRONT EVEN WITHOUT LORENA
MOISTURE, BUT POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF LORENA ADDS TO THE MIXTURE.
DIFFERENT MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ANYWHERE FROM NEARLY
COMPLETELY DRY TO AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. GIVEN THIS RANGE AND UNCERTAINTY, WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL BLENDS FOR RAINFALL CHANCES FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 94 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 66 94 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 94 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 65 93 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 64 95 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 67 93 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 67 92 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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