187
FXUS64 KSJT 241914
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
214 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
AS OF 19Z, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BIG
COUNTRY/NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY REGION. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT NO CU FIELDS
OF NOTE YET. OVERALL, HI-RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER
23Z, GENERALLY AROUND THE BRADY/SAN SABA AREA. INITIAL STORMS
LOOK TO BE THE MOST POTENT WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN ROUGHLY
1000-1750 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 35-40KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS,
STORMS LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE INTO MORE OF A CLUSTER, TRANSITIONING
THE MAIN THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS. THAT BEING SAID, THE EXTENT OF
T-STORM COVERAGE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY. JUST HOW FAR STORMS BUILD
OUT WEST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THE BIGGER QUESTION AND
WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BASED ON MORE MESO-BETA SCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND
STORMS PUSH COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH BUT THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY
BE SUB-TO-MARGINALLY SEVERE.
OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR AND OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, OVERRUNNING SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE NORTH
AS NORTHEAST WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. GOING WITH MAINLY A
DRY FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL(MAINLY UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS OF 17Z,
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND IS MOVING
SOUTH. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH WITH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PICK UP DRASTICALLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS GROUPING FOR THE KBBD TERMINAL STARTING AT
0Z WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING BUT ALSO BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN AS
TIME GOES ON. VCTS/VCSH GROUPINGS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALL OTHER
TERMINALS BESIDES KABI TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE &
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 90 65 90 / 30 20 10 10
SAN ANGELO 71 92 66 90 / 30 30 10 20
JUNCTION 70 91 67 91 / 40 30 20 20
BROWNWOOD 71 90 65 90 / 60 30 10 10
SWEETWATER 71 90 66 90 / 20 20 10 10
OZONA 71 91 67 90 / 30 30 30 30
BRADY 71 90 66 88 / 50 30 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...50
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