126  
FXUS64 KSJT 240430  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
1030 PM CST THU JAN 23 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/06Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER  
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY  
MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 556 PM CST THU JAN 23 2020/  
 
AVIATION...  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. LIGHT NORTH  
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTHERLY  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS  
EXPECTED. 20  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST THU JAN 23 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)  
 
QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS  
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS  
MOST AREAS. A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.  
SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES HIGHS WILL RETURN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.  
 
LONG TERM...  
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
 
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS INDICATED THIS WEEKEND AND WELL  
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR OUR AREA.  
 
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY  
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE  
IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECTING SOME INCREASED  
CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. NOT INCLUDING ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN  
CHANCES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY  
OF A FEW SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE  
STRONGER, BUT WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A LIMITED WINDOW FOR  
MOISTURE RETURN. CARRYING LOW POPS FOR OUR EASTERN AND  
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, BUT  
GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES, JUST  
MENTIONING SHOWERS FOR NOW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS  
PROGGED LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW HOURS  
OF GUSTY NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. AFTER HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER  
ON TUESDAY.  
 
A THIRD UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW  
MEXICO AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN  
MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER  
ON THE DETAILS WITH THE ECMWF WEAKER AND DRIER FOR OUR AREA. AT  
THIS TIME, LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND CARRYING LOW  
POPS FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 33 62 40 67 / 0 0 0 5  
SAN ANGELO 31 67 41 67 / 0 0 0 5  
JUNCTION 34 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 5  
BROWNWOOD 31 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 5  
SWEETWATER 36 62 41 67 / 0 0 0 0  
OZONA 35 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 5  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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