596  
FXUS64 KSJT 241124  
AFDSJT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
624 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/12Z TAFS/  
 
RAGGED MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATER  
THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING  
ACROSS THE REGION MAY CAUSE RAPID WINDSHIFTS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE,  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS ON THE  
AIRFIELD SHOULD BE BRIEF.  
 
SK  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM JUST  
EAST OF SAN SABA ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING  
WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE PERMIAN  
BASIN. A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED  
THUNDERSTORM LINE WERE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CONCHO  
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. LOOKING ALOFT, THE AXIS OF A 500MB TROUGH WAS  
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, A FEW  
WEAK IMPULSES WERE MAKING THEIR WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.  
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE REMAINED IN THE 70S ACROSS WEST  
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 
ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MESSY  
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER MORNING STRATUS CLEARS OUT  
BY NOONTIME, INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5000-6000J/KG  
ONCE AGAIN. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON  
WHERE THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES RESIDE AND HOW MUCH RETURN FLOW  
OCCURS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA  
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND, HOWEVER,  
HIGH-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH MORE RAGGED DEVELOPMENT  
TODAY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN STORM  
MODE, POPS WERE KEPT TO THE 20-30% RANGE AND FOCUSED MAINLY FROM  
THE CONCHO VALLEY SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING  
BY ABOUT 20Z OR SO, AND ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH LATE  
EVENING, DEPENDING ON HOW WELL IT GETS ORGANIZED. FOR NOW, WE'LL  
SHOW 20-30% POPS CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN  
TAPERING OFF THEREAFTER.  
 
SK  
 
LONG TERM...  
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)  
 
ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER THE  
REGION. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRAVERSE THE RIDGE INTO  
THE AREA, BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT  
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE  
BETTER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE  
AXIS WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US FROM  
HAVING TO EXPERIENCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S,  
WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY IN  
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY. FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,  
MODELS SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO AND WEAKENING THE RIDGE,  
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORMS, BUT  
WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS FOR NOW, AS WE STAY ON THE  
WESTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE'S AXIS, WHICH WOULD GENERALLY HAVE LESS  
OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
20  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
ABILENE 87 70 91 69 / 30 20 10 20  
SAN ANGELO 91 70 94 69 / 30 20 10 10  
JUNCTION 92 70 90 69 / 30 30 30 10  
BROWNWOOD 86 70 89 69 / 30 20 10 10  
SWEETWATER 90 70 93 69 / 20 20 10 20  
OZONA 91 69 90 67 / 30 20 10 10  
 

 
   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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