984
FXUS64 KSJT 180654
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
154 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, BUT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE COOLER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE PANHANDLE. ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A COUPLE OF WEAK MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES WERE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. AT THIS POINT, CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
LOW, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE REGION STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN, RESULTING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH. DESPITE THE
RIDGE STARTING TO DIMINISH, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
AIRMASS SO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S AGAIN. OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THIS MEANS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN, AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS
LATE SATURDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
BY MONDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
CENTERED FURTHER TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
TRACKS, IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED A BIT NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS MAY CHANGE IF HIGHER LEVELS OF
CONSISTENCY ARE SEEN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. REGARDLESS, WHAT SEEMS
MOST LIKELY IS WE SEE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT AFTER 15Z,
BEFORE DECREASING LATER THIS EVENING. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR
20KT COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 92 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 0
SAN ANGELO 91 66 92 67 / 0 10 10 0
JUNCTION 91 65 92 65 / 10 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 92 68 92 68 / 0 10 10 0
SWEETWATER 92 68 93 70 / 10 10 10 0
OZONA 89 65 90 66 / 10 0 0 0
BRADY 89 68 90 67 / 10 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...SK
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