514
FXUS64 KSJT 200931
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
431 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2018
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FARTHER SOUTH, AND SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS LOW TO OUR SOUTH, WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY, IS OUT AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH TO
THE WEST. COMPLICATING THINGS A LITTLE MORE IS THAT THE REMNANTS
OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES THIS MORNING
TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALL COMBINE TO GIVE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEST OF AN ABILENE TO OZONA
LINE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM, MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT.
20
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
..GOOD RAIN POTENTIAL
AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN, ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH, AND REMNANTS OF THE
PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM, WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD RAIN
CHANCES, FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT, FROM OUR INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NUMBERS LIKELY AROUND
2 INCHES, FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIODS, SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN MAY PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH, AT THIS TIME, TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. NEVERTHELESS,
DEVELOPING CONDITIONS WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF THE POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH, AS THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 88 71 79 62 / 20 40 80 60
SAN ANGELO 86 72 81 64 / 30 50 70 60
JUNCTION 85 72 80 68 / 30 50 60 60
BROWNWOOD 87 72 82 66 / 30 30 70 70
SWEETWATER 87 69 77 59 / 20 60 80 60
OZONA 81 70 80 64 / 30 50 60 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page