360  
FXUS65 KSLC 082138  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
338 PM MDT MON AUG 8 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS  
ALONG WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO  
SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY, THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY,  
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED  
ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A  
BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. UNDER LIGHT FLOW  
ALOFT, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE TODAY,  
KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL  
NORMALS.  
 
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT, PARKING JUST EAST OF THE  
AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT  
WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. AS A RESULT,  
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
SOUTHERN UTAH, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH, THAT WILL  
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. HAVE HELD  
OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS THE THREAT DOES NOT SEEM  
QUITE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME, BUT THE STORMS COULD  
DEFINITELY CAUSE SOME ISSUES IF THEY MOVE OVER PRONE AREAS SUCH AS  
SLOT CANYONS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP SOUTHERN UTAH  
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AS NORTHERN UTAH VALUES  
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MAXES AS MUCH AS 5F ABOVE CLIMO.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)
 
THE MAIN TALKING  
POINT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE  
CWA DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED  
OVER COLORADO WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA RESULTING  
IN THIS INCREASE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SHORTWAVES AND IMPULSES OF  
ENERGY RIDING THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL, MID 80S TO  
MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  
 
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK EASTWARD  
AND STALL OUT OVER COLORADO. THIS BRINGS BACK SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH  
IN TURN WILL BRING BACK MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL  
RETURN TO ALL OF THE CWA WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5". THESE PWAT  
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD.  
 
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL STAY OVER COLORADO OR CLOSE TO THAT AREA FOR THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A RIDGE WITH THE AXIS TO THE EAST  
ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FLOW TO AFFECT THE CWA. THERE  
IS ONE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY AND THAT IS WHAT WILL A TROUGH OVER THE  
PACNW DO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF THE TROUGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH  
INLAND TO AFFECT OUR AREA IT COULD CAUSE ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND  
LIFT TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. ANOTHER  
SCENARIO IS IF THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH THE  
RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST, WHICH WOULD CAUSE A DECREASE IN  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND INCREASE  
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR EASTERN UTAH. THE ENSEMBLES RIGHT NOW  
SHOW THAT ABOUT 18% SUPPORT THE TROUGH PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS  
FURTHER EAST BY NEXT MONDAY.  
 
AS A WHOLE, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS ARE CONFIDENT IN  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. CPC'S NEWEST 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ALSO  
SUGGESTS THE SAME, WITH THE CWA BEING IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE CATEGORY  
FOR PRECIPITATION. THEIR 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE  
MONSOONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD LAST PAST THE CURRENT FORECAST  
PERIOD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED PRECIPITATION, CLOUD COVER,  
AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
THIS FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN AT LIGHT SPEEDS. A SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST  
AROUND 4Z THIS EVENING.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST  
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.  
EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND DIRECTIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SPEEDS.  
AN INCREASE IN MID TO UPPER CLOUD DECKS IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING  
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH LOCATIONS BEFORE THE  
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE  
LOCATIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST  
TOMORROW, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL  
DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN UTAH  
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, PRIMARILY OVER  
SOUTHWEST UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE STATE, RESULTING IN A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HEAVY  
RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND KEEPING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN  
LONG TERM...CECAVA  
AVIATION...NDESMET  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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