475
FXUS65 KSLC 032117
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
317 PM MDT THU APR 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE
AREA LATE MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO LARGELY
IMPART A DRYING AND WARMING TREND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
THE BASE OF A SLOW
MOVING LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS MORE OR LESS ATOP THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF
YESTERDAY WITH AREA RADARS SHOWING SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD, H7 TEMPS REMAIN ROUGHLY IN THE -7C TO -9C RANGE AND
CORRESPOND TO SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4750-5250 FT MSL, SO SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN TEND TO HAVE A MIX OF SNOW/GRAUPEL/RAIN WITH DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL SEE THE SLOW EASTWARD CHURN OF
THE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUE. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND
THE CIRCULATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE
LESSENED GIVEN THE CESSATION OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE ONGOING PATTERN
PERSISTS ONE LAST DAY FRIDAY THEN, AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY DRIVEN
SHOWERS. IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS THOUGH, THE CONTINUED
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TROUGH WILL YIELD COVERAGE FURTHER FAVORED AT
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR, AND PARTICULAR EAST OF
THE ASSOCIATED ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN. REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN
LARGELY DIMINISHES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY PULLS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA, IT ALSO DOES SO IN A MANNER THAT APPEARS
FAVORABLE TO ALLOW AN EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RESULT IN SOME
ENHANCED CANYON WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT TYPICALLY PRONE
NORTHERN UTAH LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE GRADIENT IS NOT TOO STRONG, AND
REMAINING INGREDIENTS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST, CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF SOME TERRAIN
ADJACENT GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE
NOTED AT THE NORMAL SPOTS SUCH AS PARK LANE OR OUT OF THE MOUTH OF
WEBER CANYON. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THOUGH, WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A NOTABLE WARMUP IS ON THE
HORIZON ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WARM WEATHER
LOVERS REJOICE AS CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES WITH SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A PERSISTENT WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EJECT
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BECOME NORTHERLY TO START THE
PERIOD, THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE WASATCH AND UINTA MOUNTAINS MAY
BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, THIS SETUP
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO CANYON WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT
AND CACHE VALLEY. THE PREVAILING WINDS ARENT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY
STRONG, THOUGH GUSTS AROUND 30-35MPH APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME
SATURDAY MORNING FOR CANYONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND
CACHE VALLEY.
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WE SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AND CONTINUALLY WARMING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS
RIDGING HOLDS STRONG OVER THE REGION. POPS SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE
NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SLIDES
TO OUR NORTH. AROUND ~50% OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROUGH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OTHER HALF, WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH NO
CHANGE TO THE WARMING TREND. THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT, BUT IT WOULDN'T COMPLETELY DERAIL
THE WARMING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE APPROACHING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
WOULD YIELD GENERALLY 70 TO 80 DEGREES FOR MOST VALLEYS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY PERHAPS SEEING
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 90S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. BE SURE
TO GET OUR AND ENJOY THE SPECTACULAR WEATHER!
AVIATION...KSLC
NEARBY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
00-03Z, BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE MUCH, IF NOT ALL OF
THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH SPEEDS DROPPING
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM 03Z THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE FOR THE DAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, WILL BUILD
AROUND NEARBY TERRAIN AFTER 18Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF FROM 00-03Z FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH AND
FROM 00-06Z ELSEWHERE. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z, SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, ARE
LIKELY FROM 18-03Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ125.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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