300  
FXUS65 KSLC 282259  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
359 PM MST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH  
TUESDAY, WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SETTLING IN FOR MIDWEEK. ANOTHER  
STORM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)
 
AN ONGOING WINTER STORM IS  
ALREADY CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDING A NUMBER OF TRAFFIC  
ACCIDENTS FROM WEBER AND DAVIS COUNTIES TO NORTHERN SALT LAKE  
COUNTY AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WASATCH  
FRONT.  
 
AFTERNOON UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  
WHILE THE INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER THIS  
AFTERNOON, A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY IS SHIFTING  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A  
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM WEBER/DAVIS COUNTY  
SOUTHWARD TO THE COVE FORT AREA BY TONIGHT.  
 
WHILE SNOW MAY BECOME LIGHTER OR EVEN DIMINISH FOR A TIME ACROSS  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH AFTER THE INITIAL BAND, EXPECT SNOW TO  
REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN AN AREA OF BROAD  
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL  
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WITH THIS  
AREA OF BROAD, LIGHT SNOW.  
 
THE BIGGER PLAYER WILL BE THE EXPECTED LAKE BAND (>80%  
PROBABILITY) IMPACTING THE SALT LAKE COUNTY AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN  
DAVIS COUNTY AREA. THE COMBINATION OF 700MB TEMPERATURES  
APPROACHING -16C, A LAKE TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 3C, AND MORE THAN  
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRESENT A HIGH CONFIDENCE  
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE BAND. CAMS NEARLY  
UNIVERSALLY SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SALT LAKE COUNTY...WITH SOME OF  
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST A PERIOD WHERE THIS BAND MAY  
IMPACT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY.  
 
GREAT SALT LAKE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST  
MODE, MEANING WHETHER THE BAND IS LARGELY A HOSE POINTED AT THE  
COTTONWOODS OR WHETHER THE BAND IS WAVY AND TENDS TO VARY IN  
LOCATION AT TIMES. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LAKE BAND OVER  
PARTICULAR LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE HIGH END OF  
THE SNOW TOTALS. THOSE IN SALT LAKE COUNTY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT  
SOME LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE BAND WILL BE IN THE 1-4" SNOW TOTAL  
RANGE...AND IF THE BAND REMAINS IN A PERSISTENT LOCATIONS...SOME  
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SNOW TOTALS IN THE 4-8, TO AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES  
OF SNOW. THE CURRENT HIGHEST PROBABILITY LOCATION (>50%) IS MAINLY  
EAST OF I-15/W-215 AND NORTH OF SR201.  
 
WITH HOW COLD TEMPERATURES ARE, HOW COLD THE RESULTING SURFACES  
ARE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH 1-2"+ RATES/HOUR DURING THE EVENING  
AND MORNING COMMUTES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UPGRADED THE WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. IN ADDITION, GIVEN  
THE DEEP, HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OROGRAPHIC ENVIRONMENT + THE  
PROBABILITY OF A GREAT SALT LAKE LAKE EFFECT BAND, UPGRADED THE  
CENTRAL WASATCH (IN PARTICULAR FROM PARLEYS CANYON TO SOUTH OF  
LITTLE COTTONWOOD CANYON) TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.  
 
NOT TO BE LEFT OUT, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO  
HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED IMPACTING THE HIGHER SUMMITS ON I-15 AND  
I-70 OVERNIGHT.  
 
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS THAT INCLUDE MOUNTAINS ROUTES, THE WASATCH  
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SALT  
LAKE COUNTY), AND THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF I-15 AND I-70 OVERNIGHT  
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.  
 
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS SALT LAKE COUNTY TUESDAY  
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ANY REMAINING HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY TUESDAY EVENING. A VERY COLD AIRMASS  
WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)
 
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE  
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT THURSDAY-FRIDAY AND ANOTHER STORM QUICK ON ITS HEELS  
SATURDAY-MONDAY. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOWY WEATHER TO LARGE  
PARTS OF THE AREA.  
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON  
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE  
PACIFIC COAST. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN WESTERN UTAH AND  
OVER HIGH TERRAIN. THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING WIND ADVISORY GUSTS  
IN WESTERN UTAH (AT LEAST 45 MPH) IS 80% ON THURSDAY AND 60% ON  
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL ARRIVE IN THE  
WASATCH FRONT AS EARLY AS 4 PM THURSDAY OR AS LATE AS 2 PM  
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS  
AND THE WIND WILL TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SUBSIDE. BEHIND THE  
FRONT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO VALLEY FLOORS EVERYWHERE BUT  
WASHINGTON COUNTY. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF SNOW IN  
WASATCH FRONT CITIES BETWEEN LATE THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY.  
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WILL BE ALL SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 6" ARE VERY LIKELY (90%) IN THE WASATCH,  
BEAR RIVER AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAIN RANGES.  
 
THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINIMAL BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT STORM MOVES IN  
LATE SATURDAY, LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD THERE  
WILL BE A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE  
PACIFIC AND ANOTHER MOVING SOUTH OUT OF INTERIOR CANADA. WHILE  
THERE ARE PLENTY OF UNCERTAIN ASPECTS OF WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL  
BRING, THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT ARE KNOWN. FIRST, WIND SPEEDS  
WILL BE LOWER AND MORE SHORT-LIVED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WIND  
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE UNLIKELY (20% CHANCE). TEMPERATURES  
WILL AGAIN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN NORTHERN UTAH VALLEYS BY  
MONDAY BUT THE PHASING OF PRECIPITATION AND COLD IS UNCERTAIN.  
 
THE THE FAR EXTENDED (TUE-THU NEXT WEEK), ENSEMBLE CLUSTER  
ANALYSIS SUPPORTS EQUAL CHANCES OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BRINGING  
DRY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS VERSUS ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR/LIFR WILL PERSIST  
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT BREAKS. VIS COULD DROP NEAR  
1/4SM UNDER HEAVY BURSTS WITH ~1-2SM, OTHERWISE. CIGS WILL REMAIN  
BELOW 5KFT WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING  
WHICH COULD BRING MORE HEAVY SNOW AND IFR/LIFR THROUGH ~18Z.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR/LIFR  
FOR NORTHERN UTAH/SW WYOMING WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR  
CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A BULK OF THE ONGOING SNOW  
PUSHES INTO CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING AFTER ~03Z. VIS COULD DROP  
NEAR 1/4SM UNDER HEAVY BURSTS WITH ~1-2SM, OTHERWISE. CIGS WILL  
REMAIN BELOW 5KFT WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. BEYOND 03Z  
INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE  
WASATCH FRONT AND SW WYOMING WITH MORE ENHANCED SNOW SOUTHEAST OF  
THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND UTAH LAKE.  
 
FOR SOUTHERN UTAH, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SNOW  
STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT INTO THAT REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERLY AT  
~06Z BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AS FAR  
SOUTH AS KCDC AND KBCE. EXPECT REDUCED VIS AND CIGS CREATING BRIEF  
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW, BUT DURATION WILL ONLY BE A  
FEW HOURS.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ102-104-  
106-108-113.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ103-107.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ105.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ110.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ111.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ112.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ117-125.  
 
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ021.  
 

 
 

 
 
KRUSE/JEGLUM/MAHAN  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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