483
FXUS65 KSLC 281850
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1250 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HENRY
MOUNTAINS AND GRAND STAIRCASE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND PERIODS OF GRAUPEL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE UTAH IS
CURRENTLY IN THE DRY SLOT, THIS WILL CHANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH
BETWEEN 18-21Z. HREF MEAN SBCAPE NEAR 200-300 J/KG WILL COMBINE
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30-40KTS+ TO SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY CLOUD BASE, THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH (5% CHANCE).
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE NEAR EVANSTON,
WITH ENHANCED FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
UTAH INTO UINTA COUNTY. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAN ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THIS PRECIPITATION AREA. BY SATURDAY EVENING, BY AND LARGE THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION, OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY LATE SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY, HOT TEMPERATURES...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT MAY BRING
SLIGHT COOLING TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO FAR NORTHERN UTAH, BUT THAT'S
ABOUT THE MOST IMPACT IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT FOR THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE AN 80% CHANCE
TO BRIEFLY SHIFT NW ~01Z FRIDAY. IF SO, WINDS SHIFT BACK SOUTHEAST
SOON THEREAFTER, LIKELY BY 04Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME VFR CLOUD COVER BETWEEN AROUND 10-20 KFT
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING FROM
MORNING ON THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CHANCES OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AFTER AROUND 21Z FRIDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
FAVORED AT AREA TERMINALS, MANY WITH MODEST GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND
20-30 KTS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MAINTAINED. WINDS RELAX SOME THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH CLOUDS THEN THICKENING APPROACHING FRIDAY
MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING ON THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IMPACTING TERMINALS NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
SOUTH OF I-80 OR SO.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE HENRY MOUNTAINS AND
THE GRAND STAIRCASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR WETTING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY AND ERRATIC MICROBURST WINDS UP TO
40 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, A MUCH
HOTTER, DRIER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ494-498.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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