441
FXUS65 KSLC 261008
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
408 AM MDT WED JUN 26 2019
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)
A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, DOWNSTREAM
FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON AS THIS FLOW MIXES DOWN.
AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK A BIT TODAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT ANY THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH, AND ANY CONVECTION WHICH FIRES ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEVADA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
PERHAPS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER.
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING MOISTURE MAY BE ENTRAINED INTO THIS FLOW
AND ADVECTED INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY
POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT IF MODELS MAINTAIN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY THE WEEKEND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.
LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SUNDAY)
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MAXES RUNNING NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE REMAINS SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH REGARD TO
THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH. LATEST EC MOVES THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO
CANADA, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM THROUGH DAY SEVEN. IN THE GFS, THE
SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE, EVENTUALLY GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY AND
BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONABLE POPS.
AVIATION
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY, BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SEAMAN/TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP
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