654
FXUS65 KSLC 030423
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1023 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
- MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA.
- HEATRISK WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING
LIMITED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
DISCUSSION
UTAH REMAINS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
EVENING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT CROSSED NORTHERN UTAH EARLIER TODAY IS
NOW EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL THE FLOW PATTERN
OVER UTAH TRENDS MORE ZONAL BY FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASINGLY DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RESULT. UNTIL
THEN, LINGERING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
COMPARED TO TODAY SO CONVECTION WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. BY
SATURDAY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED AND
CONFINED TO OVER/NEAR THE WESTERN UINTAS. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL
TO VERY ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE NOTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER, WINDS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER, AND AS SUCH,
THERE IS EVEN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER NEW MEXICO WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH INTO UTAH. THE RESULTING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO
UTAH, WHILE THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY AID IN CONVECTION. WITH NBM
MEAN PWATS IN THE 0.6-0.7 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT OR DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY NOTABLE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS LOOK TO PEAK ON MONDAY
(0.7-0.85 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA) BEFORE GRADUALLY DRYING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND THE FLOW OVER UTAH TURNS
MORE WESTERLY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY ON MONDAY, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO MIDWEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME COULD BRING SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE, THEN REMAIN STEADY OR CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WOULD PUT MOST VALLEYS INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXCEPT 101-106 ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY
AND THE LAKE POWELL AREA. HEATRISK IS FORECAST TO INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY AS OVERNIGHT MINS TREND WARMER. THE LATEST FORECAST
HAS A MODERATE HEATRISK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN UTAH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH SCT TO BKN VFR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. A
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOLLOWS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
BETWEEN ~18-21Z FRI, AND BACK SOUTHERLY ~03-05Z SAT. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A 10-20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH WOULD BRING POTENTIAL TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MORE VARIABILITY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THAT OF
THE PRIOR DAY IS EXPECTED. AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, SCT/BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL LARGELY BE MAINTAINED, WHILE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE ROUGHLY A 10-30% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FRIDAY, BRINGING A CORRESPONDING CHANCE OF GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS TO LARGELY
FOLLOW A DIURNALLY TYPICAL PATTERN.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1246 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH EAST OF I-15 AND ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN UTAH TODAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH WILL REACH
8-15% ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH. ONLY ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH,
PARTICULARLY ALONG RIDGELINES. WINDS WILL BE EVEN LOWER TOMORROW
OVERALL AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE.
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARMER AND DRIER AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WITH WORSENING OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE VERY DRY CONDITIONS,
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH ONLY POCKETS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING LIKELY MONDAY, BUT AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
THREAT COUPLED WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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