109
FXUS65 KSLC 070450
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1050 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 249 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, SUNDAY THE REMAINDER OF THE UTAH. THOSE
WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING OR PROPER HYDRATION WILL BE MOST AT
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE LITTLE RECOVERY. HEAT STRESS
IS CUMULATIVE.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH SATURDAY AS WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER A
LONG DURATION PERIOD OF VERY DRY, VERY HOT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY, SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BRINGING INCREASING HEAT AREAWIDE WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO
FOLLOW. ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, THE INCREASING
TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY/ SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AND REMAINDER OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR THROUGH CEDAR CITY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER-90S (CEDAR CITY AREA) AND THE LOW-100S IN THE SALT LAKE
CITY, OGDEN, AND PROVO AREA. BY NOON ON FRIDAY, A SERIES OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH, WITH EXISTING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN SOUTHERN
UTAH REMAINING IN EFFECT.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF UTAH, AS WAS THE CASE TODAY. AS WAS EVIDENT WITH TODAY, HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-45 MPH. WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING A SKOSH FARTHER NORTHWARD, WOULD ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF
THESE SHOWERS TO EXTEND INTO MILLARD COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGELY DRY, LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS, THUS BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IN NEAR-STATIONARY STORMS.
WHILE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE TYPICAL AREAS IS QUITE
LOW, IT IS NOT ZERO.
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT AN INFLUX
OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE, WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS TO OCCUR AROUND THE MID-WEEK
TIMEFRAME (WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY), WITH HIGH-BASED LARGELY DRY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON UNTIL THEN. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOLIDLY IN PLACE THEREAFTER.
AVIATION
KSLC...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
MINIMAL (LESS THAN 10%). OUTSIDE A SIMILAR CHANCE OF OUTFLOW GUSTS,
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS) WITH
DIRECTION SHIFTS AT TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MODEST VIS
REDUCTIONS NEAR SUNSET AND SUNRISE DUE TO SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH
SMOKE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
START SHIFTING SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS WILL LARGELY BE MIDLEVEL, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. PRECIPITATION AND OUTFLOW
CHANCES REMAIN LOW (10% OR LESS), WITH WINDS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF SLIGHT VIS REDUCTIONS
NEAR SUNRISE AND SUNSET DUE TO SMOKE AND SUN ANGLE. AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE A BIT MOISTURE IS NOTED, MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD
IN. MANY SOUTHWESTERN UTAH TERMINALS WILL SEE AROUND A 10-30%
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. WINDS OTHERWISE WILL FAVOR A DIURNALLY
NORMAL DIRECTION PATTERN.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD, DRAWING
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO UTAH LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A LONG DURATION OF VERY
HOT, VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO BRING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS MOISTURE DRAWS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, MOST
OF SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE A RISK OF WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY, HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS MONSOON SURGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR UTZ101-102-104-105-115-120-121.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
UTZ103-106-107-114-116.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ118-119-122-126-127.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ123-124-
128>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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