482
FXUS65 KSLC 170918
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
318 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
MAKING WAY FOR HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED
OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING. ONE FINAL EMBEDDED VORT MAX CURRENTLY ON
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO
NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE
AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE THIS EVENING AS THIS FEATURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF UTAH.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO UTAH TOMORROW,
BRINGING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TOMORROW.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING'S
WEATHER WILL REMAIN MODESTLY ACTIVE MOVING FORWARD, WITH THE
HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVERALL.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION EARLIER IN THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD SHIFTS EASTWARD,
RESULTING IN OVERALL MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH ON
FRIDAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THESE STORMS
REACH ON FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON 1) HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LEVELS MOISTEN
AND 2) IF THERE IS MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, MODELS FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK OF THIS LOW OVER NEVADA, MEANING THAT NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE THESE SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT ON BOTH DAYS GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. SUNDAY WILL
BRING MORE ISOLATED STORMS, LIKELY TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN LACK
OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH, WITH A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH
HELPING TO BRING DRIER AIR TO OUR AREA. A RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP
FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH, PRODUCING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIESCENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS QUIET WEATHER MAY NOT
LAST LONG. WHILE STILL A WAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMELINE, REMEMBER
THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN; AROUND 60-70% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH POTENTIALLY REACHING THE WESTERN US LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 8-12KTS
AFTER 17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 8-15KTS IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THE
EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE UINTA MTNS AND UINTA CO., WY WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WYOMING AND CARVING
INTO NORTHEAST UTAH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND UINTA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOISTURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASES IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. THEREAFTER, WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/CUNNINGHAM
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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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