437
FXUS65 KSLC 220454
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD
CONDITIONS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- A WARM PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THIS EVENING, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY, WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ITS CENTER
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES STEADILY
WARM. BY MONDAY, MAXES WILL TEND TO AVERAGE AROUND 10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FLATTEN OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS FLOW WILL TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACROSS PRIMARILY FAR NORTHERN UTAH. A RELATIVELY WEAK STORM SYSTEM
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR NORTHERN UTAH IN
AN ALREADY MOIST AIRMASS, AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
THOUGH THIS IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE
TIMEFRAME, THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
FAR SOUTH THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK, WHICH
IMPACTS TEMPERATURE AND SNOW LEVEL FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS NEARLY CERTAIN THAT VALLEY
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN GIVEN THE VERY MILD NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS. MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTAL HAVE, IF ANYTHING, GONE DOWN SLIGHTLY
WITH THIS EVENING'S FORECAST PACKAGE AS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.
BEHIND THAT WAVE, THE BROAD RIDGE LOOKS TO REAMPLIFY ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, BRINGING A RETURN TO MILD AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY. A MINORITY OF GUIDANCE, HOWEVER,
INDICATES SOME MOISTURE BEING DRAWN BACK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THAT
TIME.
AVIATION...KSLC
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY 08Z. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
THAT THE AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT WILL BE DELAYED TOMORROW, WITH A
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AIRSPACE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN UTAH. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KLGU, WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN FOG. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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