711  
FXUS65 KSLC 312214  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
414 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL  
REMAIN OVER UTAH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT  
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED HOT  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
 
THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING  
FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING HAS BECOME THE FOCUS  
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST ACTIVITY AREAS FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES OVER  
EAST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING, THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND  
DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
TRAILING THE SURFACE TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR HAS ADVANCED  
EAST FROM NEVADA AND NOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD  
EAST, AND WILL COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS  
WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO  
NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN EVENTUALLY SETTLE ALONG A LINE  
FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING TUESDAY.  
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN  
JUNE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND QUITE WARM HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.  
 
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP EITHER ALONG  
OR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY WEAK  
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FAR REMOVED TO  
THE NORTH WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND LIMITED MOISTURE DOES NOT  
SUGGEST MUCH CHANCE FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE  
FAR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)
 
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING TO  
BETTER CONSENSUS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A NEGATIVELY  
TILTED TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT FRIDAY. IT COULD BE QUITE THE ACTIVE DAY  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AS DEEP LAYER LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH  
AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE. THESE DETAILS WILL BE  
WORKED OUT IN TIME, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SEMI-  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN  
WAKE, COOLER TEMPS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH  
FORECAST VALUES NOW JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.  
 
KICKING THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BE A BROAD  
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH ALONG THE PAC COAST  
DURING NEXT WEEKEND. A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY IMPINGE ON THE BULK OF THE AREA, BUT DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FLOW  
ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN A BIT MORE CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY  
THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER REGION).  
 
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH PAST DAY 7 REMAINS TO BE DIALED  
IN, BUT SIGNALS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A MUCH COOLER AND SOMEWHAT  
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER, AT LEAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE KSLC  
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 02-04Z THIS EVENING PRIOR TO  
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
BE MAINTAINED UNDER VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH  
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS TROUGH IN THE AREA OF BEST  
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER  
AND MORE STABLE WILL SPREAD OUT OF EAST FROM WESTERN UTAH TONIGHT  
AND COVER THE ENTIRE STATE EARLY THIS WEEK.  
 
THE DRY AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WILL  
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ON MONDAY TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL  
UTAH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.  
 
LOOKING AT SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK IN THE STATE MIDWEEK.  
NOT ANTICIPATING A BIG MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE AREA, BUT ENOUGH TO  
DRIVE TERRAIN-BASED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ492-495.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ489-497-498.  
 
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CONGER/MERRILL  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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