863  
FXUS65 KSLC 010910  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
310 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A VERY HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASING  
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY  
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS  
INDICATES THE 4-CORNERS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE, WHILE THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS MADE SOME SLOW PROGRESS  
EASTWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED FROM 0.40-0.60" 24 HOURS  
AGO TO FAIRLY UNIVERSAL 0.60" ACROSS THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.  
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY  
IN A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY,EXPECT PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES TO BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE  
ACROSS UTAH. HREF MEAN SBCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  
400-600 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER  
VALUES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS  
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KTS. CONCEPTUALLY, THIS WILL SUPPORT  
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE TWO PRIMARY GENESIS  
LOCATIONS, ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
UTAH...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS.  
 
LOOKING AT THE CAMS, THIS IS LARGELY THE TREND ACROSS MOST  
MEMBERS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND DEEPEN  
THROUGH THE COLUMN TODAY, MICROBURSTS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT.  
THERE WERE 4 REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 58 MPH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW REPORTS GREATER THAN  
58 MPH AGAIN TODAY.  
 
EXPECT TODAY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL, WITH  
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT. HEAT  
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND TOOELE  
VALLEYS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BE HEAT SAFE TODAY AND  
CONSIDER ALTERING OUTDOOR PLANS TO AVOID THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND  
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER NO MATTER WHERE IN THE STATE YOU ARE  
RECREATING!  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 1" ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (AROUND 90-95TH  
PERCENTILE OR SO). HREF MEAN SBCAPE VALUES WILL TICK UP A BIT WITH  
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES TO AROUND 500-650 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS  
(SUPPORTING SLOW STORM MOTIONS), WITH 15-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH. THE HIGHEST THREAT WITH THE  
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, WHEREAS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP  
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH MAY HAVE TRANSITORY PERIODS OF  
ORGANIZATION WITH SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.  
 
A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL FINALLY EJECT THE REMNANT  
OPEN WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS UTAH THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SPEED OF THIS  
SYSTEM, NET DRYING COULD BE ONGOING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT  
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
THOUGH IF THE DRY AIR ADVECTION IS FASTER THAN EXPECTED, THIS MAY  
REDUCE THE COVERAGE AND THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS HAVE QUITE THE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS  
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE  
STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ABOUT 30% OF MEMBERS) AND  
ANOTHER GROUPING OF MEMBERS (AROUND 70%) BRINGING DRY, SOUTHWEST  
FLOW WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF  
YOU HAVE PLANS ON THE 4TH OF JULY, CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS  
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20-00Z, WITH POTENTIAL TO  
PRODUCE OUTFLOW GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN  
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, BECOMING MORE  
SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH  
INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE  
TODAY. IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE  
HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, STORMS THAT DEVELOP  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS IF THEY MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF  
ANY REGIONAL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH  
INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
TAF PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION REMAINS KBCE WHERE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z FROM VIS RESTRICTIONS  
DUE TO SMOKE FROM NEARBY WILDFIRES.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO  
IMPACT UTAH, MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THIS  
AFTERNOON. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DRY, ESPECIALLY DURING  
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND HOT AND DRY  
ANTECEDENT WEATHER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED  
THREAT OF LIGHTNING BASED FIRE STARTS. RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR  
LIGHTNING AFTER A HOT/DRY PERIOD REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE MID TO LOW LEVELS  
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND WET WITH A  
HIGHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WESTERN AND  
SOUTHERN UTAH SEEING INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS MAY  
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THIS TIME  
RELATED TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS FOR WESTERN AND  
SOUTHERN UTAH.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR  
UTZ102>106.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR  
UTZ488-493-496.  
 
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
KRUSE/WHITLAM  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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