150
FXUS65 KSLC 251925
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
125 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS PASSING OVER RAIN SENSITIVE
BASINS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 40-50
MPH WILL COMBINE WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FROST FOR THE CACHE VALLEY AND WASATCH BACK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
MOISTURE IS ON THE DECREASE OVERALL, THERE IS SUFFICIENT
LINGERING MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY
WELL UNDERWAY WITH WIDESPREAD 500-1000 J/KG CAPE AND DECREASING
CIN. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALSO ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 20-30 KTS OR
SO, SEEING REASONABLE STORM ORGANIZATION IN WHAT HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN UTAH SO FAR. THAT SAID, BEST SHEAR IS
NOTED ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHERN UTAH (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ID/WY
BORDER), AND WOULD ANTICIPATE ANY HAIL THREAT TO BE MORE LIKELY IN
THAT AREA ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, THINK GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THE CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS
WELL THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE THREAT, ANY
STRONGER CELLS OR TRAILING STORMS THAT TRACK OVER RAIN SENSITIVE
AREAS WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY MORE OF A DRY SLOT SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AS A
BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN
ENHANCEMENT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE. THE SIGNAL FOR
THE STRONGEST GUSTS IS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TO WESTERN
UTAH, AND HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY. WITH
THE STRONG WINDS AND PROLONGED STRETCH OF LARGELY DRY WEATHER,
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A
LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NUDGE PARTIALLY
INTO THE AREA BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. IN TURN,
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, FINALLY
CLEARING OUT OF UTAH LATER SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AND CYCLONIC ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL BY LATE JUNE
STANDARDS. FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY FOR EXAMPLE ARE AROUND 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL, WHICH EQUATES TO UPPER 50S/LOW
60S FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING, UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
WASATCH FRONT, AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90 IN SOUTHERN UTAH TO
LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY. FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACTUALLY GET COLD ENOUGH TO NOTE SOME FROST POTENTIAL IN
COOLER SHELTERED VALLEYS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WASATCH BACK AND
CACHE VALLEY.
LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LARGELY BE DOMINANT. THIS WILL IMPART A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDWEEK. PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION, SO
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW (ALBEIT MORE MODEST), WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN.
AVIATION
KSLC...WINDS AT THE TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20-21Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
20Z-01Z WILL LIKELY CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT
TIMES. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLANTWISE VIS
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT AROUND
02Z, BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 00Z WITH ANY LINGERING STORM
ACTIVITY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50KTS. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLANTWISE VIS REDUCTIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME ENHANCED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND FRONT. ANTICIPATE
WIDESPREAD DAYTIME WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS LOCALLY
UP TO AROUND 55 MPH. DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY DRY,
LIKELY FALLING TO AROUND 5-10% FRIDAY, WITH ONLY MODEST
IMPROVEMENT TO AROUND 10-15% POSSIBLE SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES ALSO CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE POOR, WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING LOCATIONS THAT MAY RECEIVE SOME WETTING RAIN FROM
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY. EVEN THEN, WOULD EXPECT
THE VERY STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME THIS, AND AS
SUCH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS.
THIS FRONT WILL LARGELY BE DRY. THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT APPEAR TO
SEE A FAVORABLE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE THOSE IN
NORTHERN UTAH, GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AND
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE IDAHO BORDER. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE IDAHO BORDER, THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS REMAIN
QUITE LOW.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BUT RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD QUICKLY. IT WILL THEN START
MAKING MORE NOTABLE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. IT THEN LOOKS TO STALL OUT SOMEWHAT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF UTAH, WHICH MAY HELP PROLONG THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT
IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH PARTICULARLY. BY MONDAY
IT FINALLY MORE OR LESS PROGRESSES OUT OF THE REGION, BUT THE
OVERALL DEEP FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO MORE OF A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY
DOMINANT PATTERN. WHILE WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE MUCH MORE MODEST
THAN THAT OF PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM PASSING AND THERE WILL BE A
SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN, COMBINATION OF DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
WARMING TREND TOWARDS MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AREAS OF
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ478-479-482-484-488-489-492-495-497.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
UTZ115-116-118-119-122-123-126>128.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ493-
494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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