475  
FXUS65 KSLC 192137  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
337 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A TYPICAL EARLY FALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
BEEHIVE STATE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTION OF  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)  
A BEAUTIFUL SHOULDER SEASON DAY  
IS ON TAP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON UPPER AIR AND  
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY SHIFTING  
SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.  
MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS  
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR  
THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS.  
 
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF LA WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH  
SUNDAY. WHILE GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY, THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
4-CORNERS REGION INTO COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PERIOD OF  
STRENGTHENING WILL LEAVE A WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS. THIS THREAT  
WILL END BY LATE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY FROM  
THE REGION.  
 
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW  
THROUGH THE CANYONS OF WEBER, DAVIS, BOX ELDER AND CACHE COUNTIES  
SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME,  
HOWEVER, THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WINDOW IS JUST STARTING TO  
RESOLVE THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A PHENOMENA THAT IS  
SUFFICIENTLY SMALL ENOUGH ON THE MESOSCALE TO NEED HIGH RESOLUTION  
MODELING TO PROPERLY DISCERN.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY), ISSUED 358 AM MDT  
BEAUTIFUL  
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, WITH NEAR-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF A CLOSED LOW, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE  
AREA ON SUNDAY, PRODUCING DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING  
AROUND NORMAL. MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE SAME, THOUGH A PASSING  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN UT/SOUTHWESTERN WY WILL  
RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS  
OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE STILL A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS THAT FAVOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE, WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT  
SHOWERS TO MORE OF THE AREA, THOUGH THIS CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW (15%  
CHANCE).  
 
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, A RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA,  
RAISING TEMPERATURES TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT  
ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH POSSIBLY LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS  
STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...KSLC  
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING  
THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS  
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT  
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOUTHWEST  
UTAH WILL SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
A MORE FALL-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY EJECT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY.  
 
 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM/TRAPHAGAN  
 
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