768
FXUS65 KSLC 100427
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1027 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY,
MONTHLY, AND EVEN ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN UTAH IS UNDER A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
UTAH. NORTHERN UTAH CONTINUES TO SEE A BIT OF HIGH BASED MOISTURE
WHICH LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SOME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY, BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
5-8F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TO BRING AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, WITH ITS
CENTER MOVING DIRECTLY OVER UTAH. WINDS WILL DECREASE, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE QUITE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HEATRISK VALUES
INTO THE RED (MAJOR) RANGE FOR MANY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WILL GO INTO EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES, ALREADY
ABNORMALLY WARM, ARE ON TRACK TO BECOME EVEN HOTTER. JUST ABOUT
ALL VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO SEE MAXES OF 100F OR HIGHER, WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND THOSE VALUES AS WELL. DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN UTAH, WHERE NOT ONLY WILL
DAILY RECORDS BE IN PLAY, BUT MONTHLY AND ALL TIME RECORDS AS
WELL. FOR EXAMPLE, THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOGAN SHOWS A HIGH OF
107F, WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE ALL TIME RECORD THERE. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SALT LAKE CITY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEETING
OR EXCEEDING THE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 107F ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES EAST AND PUTS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MOISTURE WILL
MOST LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND
STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THUS,
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A BIT LESS HOT (BUT STILL
NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL), WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SLOWLY DISSIPATING BY EARLY MORNING. A RETURN TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS IN
EASTERN UTAH EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN UTAH EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVERNIGHT FLOWS TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST
WIND BY MID-MORNING TO EARLY-AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, WITH PEAK WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE UNSEASONABLY HOT, BREAKING DAILY RECORDS, AND LIKELY MONTHLY
AND ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL. THE RIDGE WILL FIND
ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY, AND THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DRAW MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE MOISTURE MOST LIKELY STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY LESS
HOT TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF
WETTING RAINFALL.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-122-128>131.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ495-496-498.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WEBBER
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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