344
FXUS65 KSLC 152140
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS OF EAST OF I-15, THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES,
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT
IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE CURRENTLY
LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST OF I-15. IN THAT AREA, SATELLITE DERIVED PW
VALUES ARE RUNNING IN THE 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE (A BIT HIGHER IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE), AND IN THE 0.5 TO 0.7 INCH
RANGE WEST OF I-15. A SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH IS MOVING
UP THE FLOW, CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH.
DESPITE THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, THERE HAS BEEN THICK CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH, SO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE, LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
HOWEVER, SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUDS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, THOUGH IT
HAS BEEN TOO BULLISH ON THE PROSPECTS OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
UTAH OVER MUCH OF THE DAY SO FAR.
THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TOMORROW, WITH NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE
EXPECTED OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MEANS LESS INSTABILITY, BUT ANTICIPATE THERE
WILL BE A LOT LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
TODAY, SO COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TODAY. IN THIS AIRMASS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR TO UP TO 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY), ISSUED 347 AM MDT
ON SUNDAY,
TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. EJECTS NORTH WITH THE BEST
ASCENT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY. WITH SOMEWHAT
MEAGER PWATS IN PLACE (0.5-0.6" OF WATER) AND WEAKER FORCING, THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WE WILL SEE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION
OF THE CWA.
RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK WITH GOOD ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE RETURN OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS STARTING SUNDAY,
BECOMING HOTTER AS THE WEEK CONTINUES. SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE,
HOWEVER, DOES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH
LATER IN THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO REMAIN INCONSISTENT, THOUGH THIS PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SORT OF SETUP ASSUMING THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DECAY LATER ON.
AVIATION...KSLC
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR KSLC WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY 00-01Z, THOUGH
ANY SHOWERS BEFORE THEN MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND/OR LIGHTNING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-12KTS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER EASTERN UTAH AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SPINE
OF UTAH'S MOUNTAINS, RESULTING IN LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL AND
OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD,
STRONGER STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS; THE OUTFLOW WIND THREAT WILL BE
HIGHER THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
BY 01-02Z, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WHERE STORMS MAY LINGER
LONGER INTO THE EVENING. AT KSGU, ISOLATED STORMS MAY EVEN LAST AS
LATE AS 08Z, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LARGELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, PARTICULARLY BY MID SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-15. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS, BUT OVERALL
WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEE A HIGHER CHANCE OF WETTING
RAINFALL. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER TOMORROW, BUT WILL
STILL SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS. THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM...WORSTER
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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