013
FXUS65 KSLC 210401
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1001 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD ALSO
DEVELOP FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD RIDGE SITS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST THIS
EVENING WITH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ON THE FRONT OF IT. A TROUGH HAS DROPPED DOWN FROM CANADA
INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA ALONG THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE AND IS ON
TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY,
MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. THE TROUGH WILL,
HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY CURB THE WARMING TREND OVER NORTHERN UTAH.
THE WASATCH FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGHS
BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT POINTS FARTHER NORTHEAST LIKE THE
BEAR LAKE AREA AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SHOULD SEE HIGHS UP TO 5F
COOLER THAN TODAY.
AS THAT TROUGH EXITS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL TRACK EAST, BRINGING INCREASINGLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM, RUNNING UP TO
15F ABOVE CLIMO.
BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, OPENING UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UP TO A COOLER
AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN THOUGH DETAILS REGARDING THE TROUGHS TO
COME STILL LOOK QUITE MURKY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...KSLC
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT,
PASSING THE TERMINAL ~14-16Z THU. WINDS SHIFT NW AND BECOME MODESTLY
GUSTY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDITIONALLY, WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZE NW WINDS
PERSISTING. CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, BUT EXPECT
BKN/OVC CLOUDS LOWERING TO OR A BIT BELOW 6 KFT WITH PRECIPITATION.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTHERN
TERMINALS, SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW AND BECOME
MODESTLY GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO CLEAR
UP LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE 00Z FRI, SO THOSE AREAS SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DIURNALLY NORMAL WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS PORTION OF
THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN
ACROSS THIS AREA LOOK LOW, HOWEVER. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, VERY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OR
SO, BRINGING LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO MAINLY THE GRAND STAIRCASE AND COLOR COUNTRY MOUNTAINS AREAS.
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING, A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY, OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POOR DURING THIS PERIOD.
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CONTINUED CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, INCREASING WINDS COULD
BRING THE THREAT OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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