816
FXUS65 KSLC 131124
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WASATCH BACK AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS BEGINNING MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY BRING
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AS WELL AS MINOR VALLEY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO
UTAH THIS MORNING, USHERING IN A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN
BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF THIS WEAKENING SYSTEM, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH THROUGH THE
DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, THOUGH A FEW
MAY SEE SOME BETTER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY.
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED IN SOME AREAS, THOUGH LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY INHIBITING
THIS FOG FROM BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS VALLEYS. THE FOG
THAT HAS DEVELOPED WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH BACK, PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY
OF PARK CITY AND PARLEY'S SUMMIT WHERE VISIBILITY LOWER THAN A
QUARTER MILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED. CLOUD COVER OVERALL WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN VALLEY FOG RETURNING ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN PRONE LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE CACHE VALLEY OR NEAR RESERVOIRS.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A POTENT TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WINDS COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS GIVEN
700-MB WINDS AROUND 40-50KTS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 40-60%
CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA (45 MPH) ON BOTH DAYS ACROSS
WESTERN MILLARD AND IRON COUNTIES.
THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN A FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN US
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND LIKELY EJECTING ACROSS UTAH AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL MARK THE
INITIATION OF PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE. STRONG MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, THUS HIGHER
TERRAIN FAVORED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD DO QUITE WELL DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE SECOND WAVE, WHILE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR OUT, IS FAVORED
TO ARRIVE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, BRINGING A SECOND
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST FLOW.
DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT, HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND A TRANSITION TO LONG-AWAITED VALLEY SNOW FOR ALL
BUT ST. GEORGE.
AVIATION...KSLC
CALM AND MOIST CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK UP ANY
LINGERING FOG/MIST IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE. CONDITIONS DRY
SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH CLEARER SKIES, STILL MAY SEE
SOME DEVELOPMENT (~10-20% CHANCE VIS LESS THAN 1SM). ASIDE FROM
POTENTIAL FOG, WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN WITH VFR
CONDS PREVAILING AND LIGHT AND LARGELY DIURNALLY NORMAL WINDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOISTURE AND CALM CONDITIONS
HAVE RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG IMPACTING SOME NORTHERN VALLEY
TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS TO BEGIN TO CLEAR UP IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING
SUNRISE, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY, BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AT
AREA TERMINALS, WITH MANY FOLLOWING DIURNALLY NORMAL DIRECTIONAL
PATTERNS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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