878
FXUS65 KSLC 310626
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1226 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 949 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
FOR PORTIONS OF UTAH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THE NEXT MONSOON SURGE IS INCREASING IN PROBABILITY AS EARLY AS
NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 949 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A
BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
NEARLY 600 DAM HIGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HOT, VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO UTAH. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
WASATCH FRONT AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH MANY OTHER AREAS
UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
PACKAGE FOR THE HEAT HEADLINES.
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
MORNING, QUICKLY RETREATING NORTH BEFORE A STRONGER, BUT DRIER
COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING ACTIVE, ADDITIONAL WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE LESS MODERATION, ONLY AROUND 1 TO 3
DEGREES.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL MONSOON SURGE LOOKS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN UTAH AS
EARLY AS MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CURRENTLY SPLIT
IN TIMING, WITH AROUND 50% OF MEMBERS INDICATING A MONSOON SURGE
WOULD START AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY. THAT'S THE NEXT REAL SHOT
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER. THIS LONG, HOT,
DRY PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXASPERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING HAZY SKIES, BUT NO SURFACE VIS
REDUCTIONS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 19-20Z
FRIDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING HAZY SKIES BUT NO
SURFACE VIS REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRING PERIODIC
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO SOME NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS KEVW AND
KLGU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 135 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER WEST, STRENGTHENS, AND ELONGATES
ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
AREA WHICH WILL ACT TO CUT OFF THE MONSOON MOISTURE TAP.
ADDITIONALLY, HOT AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOME VERY ISOLATED
CHANCES OF DIURNAL WEAK STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, BUT THESE WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY. AS IT
APPROACHES, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO CREATE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES STRUGGLING TO GET INTO
THE 20%+ RANGE. CURRENT FORECASTS SHOW CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH AS
HAVING THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ101-
114>116-120>122.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ102-104>106.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ123-124-128>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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