293
FXUS65 KSLC 170502
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1102 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MONSOON SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH.
ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY IN THIS
AREA.
DISCUSSION
UTAH REMAINS UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS OVER 1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH,
WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR FOR FRIDAY BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO
UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL THEN EITHER MAINTAIN WEAK FLOW
OVERHEAD AND TRAP MOISTURE IN PLACE, OR WESTERLIES START TO
INCREASE WHICH WOULD BRING A VERY BRIEF AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND.
SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WERE EFFICIENT IN
PRODUCING RAINFALL, WITH POCKETS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN PER
RADAR ESTIMATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR
FRIDAY, THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST UTAH LOOKS TO HAVE A BIT LESS
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO TODAY, WHILE NORTHERN UTAH WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT BIT LESS ACTIVE OVERALL, WHILE
NORTHERN UTAH MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SALT LAKE, TOOELE, AND UTAH
VALLEYS. THAT SAID, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS INTACT,
ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS SLOT
CANYONS, NORMALLY DRY WASHES, AND AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
KSLC...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-
10KTS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 18-
20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FIRST OVER ADJACENT HIGHER
TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND THEN MOVING INTO THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AFTER
22Z MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN
ADDITION TO MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN AND VIS REDUCTIONS (20% CHANCE OF
MVFR VIS) AT THE TERMINAL. THESE SHOWERS WILL LARGELY END BY ~01-
02Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KENV AND NEAR
KCDC. AT KENV IN PARTICULAR, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL ROUGHLY ~08Z OR SO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STATEWIDE IF THEY HAVEN'T
ALREADY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER UTAH'S
MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS
AFTER 21Z. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL, AND VIS
REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR (10% CHANCE OF IFR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT).
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1218 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
AN ONGOING MONSOON SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM THIS SURGE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL UTAH, COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. HUMIDITIES IN THE 20-30% RANGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND TO AROUND 30-40%.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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