928
FXUS65 KSLC 252120
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
320 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, MILD AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. BROAD SYSTEM THEN
PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALLEY
RAINS AND LATE SEASON MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
A BROAD TROUGH IS BEGINNING
TO PUSH ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY, WARMING
H7 TEMPS IN THE INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARE RESULTING
IN ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES. ADDITIONALLY, THIS ENHANCED FLOW IS RESULTING IN MIXING SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH AS WELL AS
THE WEST DESERT, WITH CURRENT GUSTS NOTED GENERALLY IN THE 35-45 MPH
RANGE OR SO. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL MORE OR LESS PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST IN AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM
AN ASSOCIATED DUST SOURCE.
WHILE DRIER AIR IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND LIMITING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, LINGERING MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, A
NOSE OF ENHANCED JET FLOW IS NOSING INTO THE REGION, WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD, AND AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
PIVOTING INTO/THROUGH UTAH. IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH NORTHERN TERRAIN,
ANTICIPATE THE RESULT TO BE CONVECTIVE GROWTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER, DEEP FLOW IS RESULTING IN ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALSO IS YIELDING A
CONTINUED EASTERLY FOCUSED PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND ASSOCIATED
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS LEADING TO SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL BACKING, RESULTING IN SOME MINOR TURNING TO ALREADY SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, ANY
CONVECTION THAT BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT, AND COULD SEE SOME AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT, WHICH
WILL HELP RESULT IN A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND TO ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION AS DIURNAL HEATING CEASES. WEATHER OVERNIGHT ULTIMATELY
LOOKS QUIETER, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, AND AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
CHURNING TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INITIALLY
THOUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED ENOUGH TO LARGELY
SUBDUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLIES WILL
OTHERWISE PROMOTE ANOTHER SIMILARLY GUSTY DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
AND THE WEST DESERT REGION, WITH MORE MODEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE ELSEWHERE AT AREAS FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AT MOST LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS THROUGHOUT UTAH, AND IN THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
MOVING INTO THE MORNING HOURS CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY, WILL SEE
MOISTURE START TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH NEARS, AND WILL SEE LOW END
SHOWER CHANCES START TO CREEP IN.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY/6AM SUNDAY)
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, AS A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ROTATE INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
THE WEEK, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH UTAH FROM THE
WSW. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE, BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST UTAH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH
THE REST UTAH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND -6C, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 5.5-6KFT. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS THEN
FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND SHEAR APART ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS ENOUGH TO BRING A SECONDARY COLD PUSH
FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO UTAH ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE NBM 25TH-
75TH PERCENTILE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE 3-10 INCH RANGE IN
THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. OTHERWISE, MOST OTHER MOUNTAINS HAVE 1 TO
AROUND 4 OR 6 INCHES AS THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE IN THE NBM. SOME
HIGHER VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, COULD ALSO SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW, WITH AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW OR
GREATER IN THE CEDAR CITY AREA THE UPPER SEVIER VALLEYS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS
HAVE THIS TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW WHICH THEN
MEANDERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN OR DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. WHILE THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AIRMASS WILL AT LEAST BE
WARMER, LIKELY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
AVIATION...KSLC
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WASATCH BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL, THOUGH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH AROUND 02Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
ABOUT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE WASATCH CREST
AND INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 02Z SATURDAY, WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT
KLGU-KEVW. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF DETERIORATED
VISIBILITY UNDER BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
AREAWIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...CHENG
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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