491
FXUS65 KSLC 161232
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
532 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND UP TO
55 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- EXPECT BROADLY 1-2 FEET OF MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
TWO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL: OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MID-DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
- WHILE MOST VALLEYS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID-DAY TUESDAY,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT A RELATIVE LULL BY THAT POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION RAMPS BACK UP EARLY WEDNESDAY, VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY, AROUND 2-4
INCHES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
BENCHES (AND IN CEDAR CITY).
DISCUSSION
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 45-55
MPH ARE NOTED ALONG RIDGELINES EARLY THIS MORNING, INDICATIVE OF
OVERALL INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR FIRST STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TO GIVE A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WE'RE LOOKING AT TWO MAIN STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL
EACH BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR AND PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL AS THEY PASS ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING,
ACCOMPANIED BY PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE
QUITE IMPRESSIVE, MOISTURE ONLY PEAKS AROUND 150-200% OF NORMAL
NEAR THE TIMES OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGES...OTHERWISE HOVERING AROUND
NORMAL.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH
700-MB WINDS PEAKING LATE EVENING AS A 180KT JET CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CA-AZ. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXACT MAGNITUDE
OF THESE WINDS, BUT TRENDS HAVE OVERALL INCREASED, WITH THE
GFS/NAM/HREF SUGGESTS 65-70KT WINDS AT 700-MB. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC WINDS
PEAK AFTER SUNSET, SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 45-55 MPH IN
MANY LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS THAT ARE DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD EVEN EXCEED 55 MPH AT TIMES (E.G. TOOELE, SALT LAKE VALLEYS
WHERE THIS IS PRONE TO HAPPENING). ADDITIONALLY, WITH DRIER LOW
LEVELS, PRECIPITATION ONSET LATER IN THE EVENING COULD HELP MIX
THOSE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH. IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, PRECIPITATION ONSET
MAY BE DELAYED AS PRECIPITATION EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.
ALONG WITH WINDS, EXPECT A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL ALONG THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST UTAH. FOR EXAMPLE, DOWNSCALED GUIDANCE AT BRIAN HEAD
SUGGESTS 7-10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN 6 HOURS BETWEEN
11PM-5AM...WITH THE HREF MEAN EVEN SUGGESTING A FEW HOURS OF 2.5
INCH PER HOUR RATES. OTHER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS PERIODS
OF SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM, SNOW LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL, THOUGH VALLEY PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN UP
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHENS
AHEAD OF THE SECOND SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA MID-DAY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, A TRANSITION TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, AND A SHOT OF COLDER AIR AS 700-MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-15C OR SO. LAKE-EFFECT REMAINS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW (AROUND 20%).
WHILE MOUNTAIN AND WASATCH BACK SNOW TOTALS LOOKS RELATIVELY
IMPRESSIVE (BROADLY 1-2 FEET OVER 3 DAYS), VALLEY SNOW TOTALS ARE
FAIRLY LOW OWING TO SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. MANY VALLEYS CAN
EXPECT LARGELY 2-4 INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON BENCHES AND NEAR
CEDAR CITY. MOST OF THIS SNOW WILL FALL ON WEDNESDAY. TOTALS
COULD BE BOOSTED, HOWEVER, IF FAVORABLE MESOSCALE DETAILS PAN OUT
LIKE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. MODEST INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE
COMES IN.
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF INTO THURSDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A POTENTIAL TRAILING WAVE ON FRIDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BY 16Z AND AROUND 30 KNOTS BY 20Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN VFR RANGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z.
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN, WITH LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 03Z CAPABLE OF ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS AND ALTERING
DIRECTIONS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH, SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 30 KNOTS. WINDS AROUND 2000 FEET FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY BY 16Z FOR MUCH OF UTAH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS FOR
SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WESTERN UTAH, AND FOR VALLEYS WITH DOWNSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN VFR
RANGE TRANSITIONING TO OVERCAST AROUND 00Z. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS AND ALTERING
DIRECTIONS AFTER 03Z. THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND MUCH OF UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
UTZ101-102-115-116-122-127.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
UTZ105-121-128>130.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ108-110>112.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ113-117.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ125.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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