378
FXUS65 KSLC 311018
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
418 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH. AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z/12AM MONDAY)
MID LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND MAY APPROACH
DAILY RECORDS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY SPOTS BEING WESTERN UINTAS, ALONG WITH BOULDER MOUNTAIN
AND THE BRIAN HEAD AREA IN SOUTHERN UTAH.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED MIXING
ALONG WITH A WARMER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
TREND 3-5 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. UNLIKELY KSLC
REACHES THE 100F MARK (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE), BUT MID TO UPPER
90S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH
ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS NV WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION
WHICH DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z/12AM MONDAY)
GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALVIN) MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY/ EARLY
MONDAY AS AN OFFSHORE LOW PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVES AT THE UT/AZ BORDER REGION RIGHT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH, WHEN PAIRED WITH THE
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR ATMOSPHERIC LIFT, WILL HELP TO INCREASE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IS TO BE EXPECTED EARLY ON, HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY, A THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN POPULAR RECREATION
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH (E.G. THE NATIONAL PARKS,
SLOT CANYON ROUTES, ETC.). THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH RAIN WE ACTUALLY SEE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE DO KNOW THE
SOUTHERN UTAH IS VERY LIKELY (80-90% CHANCE OR GREATER) TO SEE AT
LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF THIS OFFSHORE
LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE FEATURE PHASES THROUGH UTAH,
ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
(10-20 DEGREES LOWER). FOR THE SOUTHERN AREA, HIGHS WILL BE
RUNNING UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE NORTHERN
AREA SEE TEMPERATURES MAINTAINING JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FURTHER COOLING OF THE AIRMASS IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINS
DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY UPWARDS
OF 5 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THIS SAME TIME.
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH LOOKS TO
PARK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION, BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE IS INDICATED THAT AN UPSTREAM RIDGE
WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION...KSLC
MINIMAL OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE KSLC TERMINAL AS VFR CONDITIONS UNDER LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REVERTS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW AFTER
16-17Z, PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF UTAH. AS IS THE CASE WITH MOST ELEVATED SHOWERS, THERE WILL BE A
RISK OF STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AROUND
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE WINDS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
DOMINATED BY TERRAIN FEATURES.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, AND AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RH WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY, THEN TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOP. THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION, FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, RAINFALL TOTALS OF .50" OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF COLOR COUNTRY, AS WELL AS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UTAH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UINTAS, THE
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WHICH
WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS MOISTURE. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SEAMAN/WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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