425  
FXUS65 KSLC 141004  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
404 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK,  
INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF HIGH BASED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MIDWEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE,  
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY. SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL SEE SOME MODEST WARMING, PUSHING  
HIGHS IN LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY TO AROUND 110F WITH LIMITED  
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. BECAUSE OF THIS, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN  
EFFECT FOR THAT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS  
EVENING.  
 
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW  
AND ANOTHER WEAK TOUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST, THE FLOW  
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING SOME HIGH  
BASED MOISTURE TO START TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER  
SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY  
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. BY TUESDAY, THIS HIGH BASED  
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE PLENTIFUL, WITH DYNAMICS BECOMING MORE  
FAVORABLE WITH THE APPROACHING CALIFORNIA TROUGH PROVIDING SOME  
EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH  
PROVIDING SOME MORE FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT. THUS, COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, STILL PRIMARILY HIGH BASED, WILL BE A  
BIT HIGHER, RESULTING IN A HIGHER THREAT OF GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME  
INCREASED FIRE DANGER TO SOUTHERN UTAH. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER  
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)  
RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS OVER  
THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE SOME "RELIEF" FROM THE HOT  
TEMPERATURES OF TUESDAY, IF YOU CAN REALLY CALL IT THAT. FOLLOWING  
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH, "COOLER" AIR WILL  
FILTER INTO THE REGION BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO JUST BELOW OR NORMAL  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR VALLEYS  
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO MID 90S WHILE LOWER  
WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S.  
 
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS AND MEANDERS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA  
AND SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM  
AROUND 0.5-0.7" ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF UT AND SOUTHWEST WY FOR THE  
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE GFS AND  
EURO ARE HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR PWATS RANGING FROM 1-1.2" ACROSS  
SOUTHERN UT THURSDAY-SATURDAY. WHILE THIS REMAINS FAR OUT IN TIME,  
IT DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD  
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. SPECIFICS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO IRON  
OUT AT THIS TIME, THOUGH IT BEARS WATCHING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...KSLC  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KSLC TERMINAL  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 17Z AND SOUTHEASTERLIES ONCE AGAIN AROUND 04-  
05Z.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY DIURNAL WINDS WILL TAKE  
HOLD AS OVERALL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT ACROSS UT AND SOUTHWEST WY. THERE  
IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KCDC AND  
KBCE, THOUGH PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN  
THE TAF.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE  
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER,  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA  
FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING ISOLATED HIGH BASED AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE WITH  
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY,  
COMBINING WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. SOME  
HIGHER BASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF HIGH BASED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE  
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY, SOME DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN, BUT DEEPER  
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR UTZ495>498.  
 
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING  
FOR UTZ123-124.  
 
WY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN  
LONG TERM/AVIATION...WORSTER  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
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