377
FXUS65 KSLC 280955
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1053 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.
- AN APPROACHING TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1053 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
THIS EVENING, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER UTAH. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN UTAH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
HIGH. LATEST PWAT ANALYSIS HAS BETWEEN 0.9-1.1 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH DECREASING TO AROUND 0.7 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN UTAH.
WEAK RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE ALSO AIDING MORE
FOCUSED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, WITH ONE SUCH ROUND MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT,
INCREASING AGAIN BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
RIPPLES THROUGH. AS MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY, CONVECTION WILL BECOME STRONGER AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND BECOME STRONGER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS
LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE PACNW WILL BRING
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE UPPER JET SHIFTING
INTO UTAH AHEAD OF THIS STORM, COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE
AREA, WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR
NORTHERN UTAH ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND
POTENTIAL TRAINING NATURE OF THE STORMS, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL INCREASE AS WELL, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL CROSS IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING A MARKED DECREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN UTAH, WHILE EASTERN UTAH WILL
SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SAID TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SETTLE WELL EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL TREND
LOWER, ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH CHANCES
DECREASE BY MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MORE OR LESS PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1053 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
KSLC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVERALL
LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH MAY RESULT IN MORE VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TO A 30% CHANCE BETWEEN 21-01Z, WITH A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE A MORE WELL-DEFINED LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN
LATER IN THE EVENING. STORMS TOMORROW WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN UTAH MAY RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS FOR SOME TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 19-21Z
ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH IN THE EVENING BEFORE A MORE DEVELOPED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STORMS TOMORROW WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE HAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED OVER UTAH, WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS BRINGING WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MORE TYPICAL OF FALL THAN SUMMER. THIS COMBINATION
WILL BRING A DAILY THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
VERY GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH THAT A BROAD AREA WILL RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN, THE FIRST
RAIN EVENT MORE SIMILAR TO THE COOL SEASON THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE
TIMING OF THIS EVENT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND HOW QUICKLY THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALONG WITH THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MUCH OF UTAH.
AS THE COOLER AIR APPROACHES, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW WINDS
RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT
WORKWEEK, THOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-15.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN, THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS RECENT DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...VAN CLEAVE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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