754
FXUS65 KSLC 111945
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
145 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1150 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, REACHING AROUND 5-10F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS, INCREASING FURTHER MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, REACHING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MODERATE HEATRISK BY WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UINTA BASIN
AND EASTERN VALLEYS ALONGSIDE VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES,
LEADING TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL ALSO INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1150 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT LARGELY THROUGH THE REGION AND
DISSIPATING WITH DAYTIME MIXING THIS MORNING, SEEING TEMPERATURES
5-15F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND EXPECT THIS TO REFLECT IN THE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN ALL BUT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS (WASHINGTON COUNTY)
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CREST 100F+ THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, THIS RELIEF IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, WITH UPPER
LEVEL TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING FRIDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS HIGHS CLIMB TOWARDS 93-95
DEGREES ON THE WASATCH FRONT AND 105 IN ST. GEORGE BY TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY, RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WILL GREATLY INCREASE. IN
FACT, THERE IS UPWARDS OF A 90% CHANCE OF HEATRISK REACHING THE
"MODERATE" CATEGORY (GREATLY AFFECTING THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND
THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING/ HYDRATION) AND AROUND A
15-20% CHANCE OF REACHING THE "MAJOR" CATEGORY (AFFECTING A
MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION).
A RELATIVE LULL IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING STABILITY
UNDER BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO GIVE SOME RELIEF ACROSS THE
REGION FROM GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN DRIVING RECENT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. BY FRIDAY, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
OVERHEAD FLOW, PUTTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME, AND DRIVING SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD
AREA-WIDE, THE UINTA BASIN AND EASTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS PUSHING 20-35 MPH IN ISOLATED AREAS WITH
SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DRIVE IMPACT HEADLINES, THIS WILL BE AN AREA
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
IN ADDITION, THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND
INCREASE PWATS FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS PUT TOTAL COLUMN WATER AROUND 0.4-0.6 IN,
WITH A FEW OUTLIER MEMBERS FROM THE EPS SUGGESTING PWATS COULD
REACH AS HIGH AS 1.1 IN (UPWARDS OF 200-215 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
THAT SAID, BOTH THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BEING SO
DRY AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE IN THE SOURCE REGION
BEING ELEVATED WOULD SUGGEST HIGH- BASED CONVECTION AND MORE OF A
WIND/DRY LIGHTNING THREAT THAN A FLOODING THREAT LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MORE
MOIST END OF THE SPREAD, OR THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS BEGIN TO
SUGGEST MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, THIS WILL WARRANT
GREATER ATTENTION IN THE COMING DAYS. AT THIS TIME, AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER SLOT CANYONS, DRY WASHES, AND RECENT
BURN SCARS.
AVIATION, ISSUED 114 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 114 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH BLUE SKIES AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 05Z BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN AROUND 16Z TOMORROW.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF OUR SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BENEATH BLUE SKIES.
KEVW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS TOMORROW AROUND
15-18Z, DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN THE
WAKE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH, THOUGH THE
EFFECT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
OVERHEAD, A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT FOR MOST ZONES. SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH
MAY OBSERVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM A GRAZING
TROUGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE OBSERVED IN THESE AREAS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE LOW TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE INCURSION INTO SOUTHERN UTAH OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENINGS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
LOOK EXTREMELY MINIMAL, BUT WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WESSLER
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WESSLER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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