711
FXUS65 KSLC 312214
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
414 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SYNOPSIS
A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN OVER UTAH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING HAS BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST ACTIVITY AREAS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES OVER
EAST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING, THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND
DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TRAILING THE SURFACE TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR HAS ADVANCED
EAST FROM NEVADA AND NOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST, AND WILL COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN EVENTUALLY SETTLE ALONG A LINE
FROM WEST-CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING TUESDAY.
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN
JUNE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT BREEZY AND QUITE WARM HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP EITHER ALONG
OR BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FAR REMOVED TO
THE NORTH WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AND LIMITED MOISTURE DOES NOT
SUGGEST MUCH CHANCE FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING TO
BETTER CONSENSUS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT FRIDAY. IT COULD BE QUITE THE ACTIVE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AS DEEP LAYER LIFT LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR/MOISTURE. THESE DETAILS WILL BE
WORKED OUT IN TIME, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SEMI-
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
WAKE, COOLER TEMPS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH
FORECAST VALUES NOW JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
KICKING THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN WILL BE A BROAD
LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH ALONG THE PAC COAST
DURING NEXT WEEKEND. A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY IMPINGE ON THE BULK OF THE AREA, BUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FLOW
ALOFT COULD MAINTAIN A BIT MORE CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER REGION).
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH PAST DAY 7 REMAINS TO BE DIALED
IN, BUT SIGNALS ARE POINTING TOWARDS A MUCH COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER, AT LEAST.
AVIATION
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 02-04Z THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINTAINED UNDER VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS TROUGH IN THE AREA OF BEST
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WILL SPREAD OUT OF EAST FROM WESTERN UTAH TONIGHT
AND COVER THE ENTIRE STATE EARLY THIS WEEK.
THE DRY AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ON MONDAY TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
LOOKING AT SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK IN THE STATE MIDWEEK.
NOT ANTICIPATING A BIG MOISTURE SURGE INTO THE AREA, BUT ENOUGH TO
DRIVE TERRAIN-BASED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ492-495.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ489-497-498.
WY...NONE.
CONGER/MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP
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