753
UXUS97 KGJT 291421
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
0821 MDT THURSDAY, MAY 29, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR THURSDAY, MAY 29, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 72.2 F/22.3 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1582 FT/MIN (8.0 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 22328 FT MSL (16900 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 88.0 F/31.6 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1000 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 17957 FT MSL (12529 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY 05/30....... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:51:03 / 20:32:13 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 41 MIN 10 SEC (881 MIN 10 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:11:38 MDT... 72.45 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 05/29/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 13823 FT MSL (8395 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 15765 FT MSL (10337 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 17848 FT MSL (12420 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -4.9
K INDEX......................... +22.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.2 -74.6 290 15 8 -0.3 -0.1 M M M M M
45000 -59.6 -75.3 285 19 10 -0.4 -0.2 M M M M M
40000 -60.3 -76.5 325 15 8 0.3 0.1 M M M M M
38000 -56.6 -69.9 320 16 8 6.8 3.7 M M M M M
36000 -52.5 -62.5 310 18 9 6.8 3.7 M M M M M
34000 -47.9 -54.2 305 19 10 8.4 4.6 M M M M M
32000 -42.8 -45.0 295 20 10 8.4 4.6 M M M M M
30000 -37.8 -36.0 295 21 11 8.2 4.5 37.6 99.7 4.9 M M
29000 -35.4 -31.7 295 22 11 8.2 4.5 37.0 98.6 4.5 M M
28000 -32.9 -27.2 300 22 11 8.2 4.5 36.5 97.7 4.1 M M
27000 -30.6 -23.1 300 22 11 7.3 4.0 35.7 96.3 3.6 M M
26000 -27.9 -18.2 300 22 12 7.3 4.0 34.5 94.1 2.6 M M
25000 -25.7 -14.3 305 22 12 7.4 4.0 33.7 92.6 2.0 M M
24000 -23.5 -10.3 305 22 12 7.3 4.0 32.7 90.9 1.2 M M
23000 -21.4 -6.5 305 22 12 7.3 4.0 31.8 89.3 0.4 M M
22000 -19.2 -2.6 305 22 11 7.3 4.0 31.0 87.8 -0.3 1545 7.9
21000 -16.9 1.6 305 22 11 7.7 4.2 30.2 86.4 -1.0 1448 7.4
20000 -14.6 5.7 300 21 11 7.7 4.2 29.5 85.0 -1.6 1349 6.9
19500 -13.5 7.7 300 20 10 7.7 4.2 29.1 84.5 -1.9 1300 6.6
19000 -12.3 9.9 300 20 10 7.6 4.1 28.8 83.9 -2.2 1251 6.4
18500 -11.2 11.8 300 19 10 7.5 4.1 28.4 83.1 -2.6 1203 6.1
18000 -10.1 13.8 295 18 9 7.5 4.1 28.0 82.5 -3.0 1155 5.9
17500 -9.0 15.8 295 17 9 7.6 4.2 27.7 81.8 -3.3 1107 5.6
17000 -7.9 17.8 290 17 9 7.6 4.2 27.3 81.1 -3.7 1059 5.4
16500 -6.8 19.8 290 16 8 8.3 4.5 27.0 80.6 -4.1 1010 5.1
16000 -5.5 22.1 290 16 8 8.5 4.6 26.7 80.1 -4.3 958 4.9
15500 -4.3 24.3 285 16 8 8.5 4.7 26.5 79.8 -4.6 906 4.6
15000 -3.0 26.6 285 15 8 8.6 4.7 26.3 79.4 -4.8 854 4.3
14500 -1.8 28.8 285 14 7 8.6 4.7 26.1 79.1 -5.0 801 4.1
14000 -0.6 30.9 285 12 6 8.1 4.4 25.9 78.6 -5.3 750 3.8
13500 0.6 33.1 285 11 5 8.2 4.5 25.6 78.1 -5.6 700 3.6
13000 1.8 35.2 290 9 5 7.8 4.3 25.3 77.6 -5.9 650 3.3
12500 3.0 37.4 290 8 4 7.8 4.3 25.0 77.1 -6.3 600 3.0
12000 4.1 39.4 295 6 3 8.0 4.4 24.7 76.5 -6.6 550 2.8
11500 5.3 41.5 300 5 3 8.0 4.4 24.4 76.0 -6.9 501 2.5
11000 6.4 43.5 305 5 2 7.1 3.9 24.1 75.4 -7.3 452 2.3
10500 7.5 45.5 315 4 2 6.5 3.5 23.7 74.6 -7.8 406 2.1
10250 8.0 46.4 320 3 2 9.5 5.2 23.5 74.3 -8.0 383 1.9
10000 8.8 47.8 325 3 1 10.0 5.5 23.6 74.5 -7.9 352 1.8
9750 9.4 48.9 335 2 1 7.4 4.1 23.4 74.2 -8.1 327 1.7
9500 9.9 49.8 355 2 1 8.1 4.4 23.3 73.9 -8.3 302 1.5
9250 10.5 50.9 015 2 1 7.9 4.3 23.2 73.7 -8.4 277 1.4
9000 11.6 52.9 055 2 1 6.8 3.7 22.8 73.0 -8.9 230 1.2
8750 12.1 53.8 065 2 1 7.3 4.0 22.6 72.6 -9.1 207 1.1
8500 12.6 54.7 075 3 1 5.6 3.1 22.3 72.2 -9.3 184 0.9
8250 13.0 55.4 080 3 2 4.0 2.2 21.9 71.5 -9.8 167 0.8
8000 13.3 55.9 085 4 2 4.5 2.5 21.5 70.7 -10.2 149 0.8
7750 13.6 56.5 080 4 2 4.2 2.3 21.1 70.0 -10.6 132 0.7
7500 13.9 57.0 080 5 3 3.2 1.7 20.6 69.2 -11.1 117 0.6
7250 14.1 57.4 080 5 3 2.6 1.4 20.1 68.2 -11.7 104 0.5
7000 14.2 57.6 080 6 3 2.9 1.6 19.6 67.2 -12.3 91 0.5
6750 14.4 57.9 075 6 3 2.3 1.3 19.0 66.3 -12.9 79 0.4
6500 14.5 58.1 075 6 3 1.3 0.7 18.4 65.2 -13.5 68 0.3
6250 14.6 58.3 075 6 3 2.1 1.2 17.8 64.0 -14.2 57 0.3
6000 14.7 58.5 075 6 3 -0.8 -0.5 17.2 62.9 -14.8 47 0.2
5750 14.2 57.6 075 4 2 -15.4 -8.4 15.9 60.6 -16.1 55 0.3
5500 12.3 54.1 080 4 2 -38.0 -20.9 13.2 55.7 -18.8 106 0.5
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
05/29/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 05/29/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +3.7 LI... +0.2 | CAPE... +213.9 LI... -1.1
CINH... -27.8 K INDEX... +21.5 | CINH... -25.5 K INDEX... +22.4
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.0 -74.2 300 15 8 -0.0 -0.0 | -59.0 -74.2 300 13 7 0.3 0.2
45000 -59.1 -74.4 300 20 10 -0.6 -0.3 | -58.9 -74.0 305 17 9 -1.0 -0.5
40000 -60.0 -76.0 290 14 7 -1.2 -0.6 | -60.3 -76.5 295 18 9 -1.3 -0.7
38000 -56.4 -69.5 300 14 7 6.9 3.8 | -56.4 -69.5 300 18 9 7.4 4.1
36000 -52.3 -62.1 305 15 8 6.9 3.8 | -51.4 -60.5 300 17 9 7.4 4.1
34000 -47.2 -53.0 305 16 8 7.9 4.3 | -46.9 -52.4 305 17 9 7.7 4.2
32000 -42.5 -44.5 300 18 9 7.9 4.3 | -42.3 -44.1 300 17 9 7.7 4.2
30000 -37.6 -35.7 305 18 9 8.3 4.6 | -37.5 -35.5 300 16 8 8.0 4.4
29000 -35.2 -31.4 305 18 9 8.3 4.6 | -35.1 -31.2 305 16 8 8.1 4.4
28000 -32.7 -26.9 310 18 9 8.4 4.6 | -32.7 -26.9 305 16 8 8.1 4.5
27000 -30.5 -22.9 305 19 10 7.0 3.8 | -30.5 -22.9 305 16 8 7.3 4.0
26000 -28.4 -19.1 305 19 10 7.0 3.8 | -28.3 -18.9 300 17 9 7.3 4.0
25000 -26.3 -15.3 300 20 10 7.0 3.8 | -26.2 -15.2 300 18 9 7.3 4.0
24000 -24.2 -11.6 300 21 11 7.5 4.1 | -24.0 -11.2 300 19 10 7.5 4.1
23000 -22.0 -7.6 295 22 11 7.5 4.1 | -21.7 -7.1 295 20 10 7.6 4.1
22000 -19.8 -3.6 295 22 11 7.5 4.1 | -18.9 -2.0 290 20 11 7.6 4.2
21000 -16.9 1.6 295 22 11 8.1 4.4 | -16.7 1.9 290 20 10 7.7 4.2
20000 -14.5 5.9 295 22 11 8.1 4.4 | -14.4 6.1 290 20 10 7.7 4.2
19500 -13.3 8.1 295 22 11 8.1 4.4 | -13.2 8.2 290 19 10 7.7 4.2
19000 -12.1 10.2 300 21 11 7.9 4.4 | -12.1 10.2 290 19 10 7.8 4.3
18500 -10.9 12.4 300 21 11 7.9 4.3 | -10.9 12.4 290 18 10 7.9 4.3
18000 -9.8 14.4 300 20 10 7.9 4.3 | -9.7 14.5 295 18 9 7.9 4.3
17500 -8.6 16.5 305 19 10 7.9 4.3 | -8.6 16.5 295 17 9 7.9 4.3
17000 -7.5 18.5 305 19 10 7.9 4.3 | -7.4 18.7 300 17 9 7.9 4.3
16500 -6.3 20.7 305 18 9 7.8 4.3 | -6.3 20.7 300 16 8 8.0 4.4
16000 -5.2 22.6 305 17 9 7.8 4.3 | -5.1 22.8 305 16 8 8.1 4.4
15500 -4.0 24.8 305 17 9 7.9 4.3 | -3.9 25.0 305 15 8 8.0 4.4
15000 -2.9 26.8 305 16 8 7.9 4.3 | -2.8 27.0 305 15 8 7.9 4.4
14500 -1.7 28.9 305 16 8 7.9 4.4 | -1.6 29.1 310 14 7 8.1 4.5
14000 -0.6 30.9 300 15 8 8.1 4.5 | -0.4 31.3 310 14 7 8.5 4.7
13500 0.6 33.1 300 14 7 8.1 4.5 | 0.8 33.4 310 13 7 8.5 4.7
13000 1.8 35.2 300 13 6 7.9 4.3 | 2.0 35.6 310 13 7 8.5 4.6
12500 3.0 37.4 300 11 6 7.9 4.4 | 3.3 37.9 310 12 6 8.5 4.6
12000 4.1 39.4 300 10 5 7.9 4.3 | 4.5 40.1 310 11 6 8.7 4.8
11500 5.2 41.4 305 8 4 7.9 4.3 | 5.8 42.4 310 10 5 8.7 4.8
11000 6.4 43.5 310 6 3 7.6 4.2 | 7.1 44.8 310 9 5 9.0 4.9
10500 7.5 45.5 315 5 2 8.1 4.4 | 8.4 47.1 310 8 4 8.4 4.6
10250 8.0 46.4 315 4 2 5.8 3.2 | 9.0 48.2 305 8 4 6.8 3.7
10000 8.4 47.1 325 4 2 6.5 3.6 | 9.5 49.1 305 7 4 8.6 4.7
9750 9.0 48.2 330 3 2 9.2 5.0 | 10.3 50.5 310 7 3 10.4 5.7
9500 9.7 49.5 345 2 1 8.8 4.8 | 11.0 51.8 310 6 3 10.0 5.5
9250 10.3 50.5 360 2 1 7.8 4.3 | 11.7 53.1 310 6 3 8.6 4.7
9000 10.8 51.4 015 2 1 6.6 3.6 | 12.3 54.1 310 5 3 8.2 4.5
8750 11.3 52.3 030 2 1 7.0 3.9 | 13.0 55.4 310 5 3 9.4 5.1
8500 11.8 53.2 045 3 1 7.0 3.8 | 13.6 56.5 315 5 2 9.0 4.9
8250 12.3 54.1 050 3 2 5.4 3.0 | 14.8 58.6 315 4 2 8.2 4.5
8000 13.1 55.6 065 5 2 6.0 3.3 | 15.5 59.9 315 4 2 11.3 6.2
7750 13.5 56.3 065 5 3 5.3 2.9 | 16.3 61.3 320 4 2 10.2 5.6
7500 13.8 56.8 070 5 3 3.2 1.8 | 17.0 62.6 320 4 2 7.7 4.2
7250 14.0 57.2 070 5 3 2.9 1.6 | 17.5 63.5 315 3 2 7.9 4.3
7000 14.3 57.7 070 5 3 7.2 4.0 | 18.3 64.9 315 3 2 12.5 6.9
6750 14.9 58.8 065 5 3 9.1 5.0 | 19.3 66.7 320 3 2 12.3 6.7
6500 15.5 59.9 070 5 2 8.1 4.5 | 20.0 68.0 320 3 1 9.9 5.4
6250 16.2 61.2 070 4 2 7.7 4.2 | 20.8 69.4 315 3 1 9.6 5.3
6000 16.8 62.2 070 4 2 10.9 6.0 | 21.6 70.9 315 3 1 13.0 7.1
5750 17.9 64.2 070 4 2 20.3 11.1 | 22.9 73.2 320 3 1 26.4 14.5
5500 19.4 66.9 070 4 2 15.8 8.7 | 25.2 77.4 315 2 1 30.1 16.5
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
05/29/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 05/29/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +379.0 LI... -1.9 | CAPE... +280.4 LI... -1.5
CINH... -6.4 K INDEX... +24.1 | CINH... -23.9 K INDEX... +26.8
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.3 -74.7 295 15 8 0.4 0.2 | -60.2 -76.4 305 18 9 0.1 0.0
45000 -58.9 -74.0 300 18 9 -0.6 -0.3 | -60.0 -76.0 305 19 10 0.5 0.3
40000 -59.8 -75.6 295 22 12 -0.7 -0.4 | -59.0 -74.2 300 26 13 4.6 2.5
38000 -55.6 -68.1 300 21 11 6.8 3.8 | -55.3 -67.5 305 24 12 6.2 3.4
36000 -51.5 -60.7 305 19 10 6.8 3.8 | -51.5 -60.7 310 23 12 6.3 3.4
34000 -46.9 -52.4 305 18 9 8.1 4.4 | -46.8 -52.2 310 22 11 8.5 4.7
32000 -42.1 -43.8 310 17 9 8.1 4.4 | -41.7 -43.1 315 22 11 8.6 4.7
30000 -37.2 -35.0 310 16 8 8.3 4.6 | -36.6 -33.9 315 20 10 8.6 4.7
29000 -34.7 -30.5 305 16 8 8.3 4.6 | -34.0 -29.2 315 18 9 8.6 4.7
28000 -32.2 -26.0 300 16 8 8.4 4.6 | -31.4 -24.5 310 17 9 8.8 4.8
27000 -29.9 -21.8 300 16 8 7.4 4.1 | -29.1 -20.4 310 17 9 7.4 4.0
26000 -27.7 -17.9 295 17 9 7.4 4.1 | -26.9 -16.4 305 17 9 7.4 4.1
25000 -25.5 -13.9 295 18 9 7.4 4.1 | -24.7 -12.5 300 18 9 7.4 4.1
24000 -23.3 -9.9 295 19 10 7.5 4.1 | -22.0 -7.6 295 18 9 7.0 3.9
23000 -20.6 -5.1 295 18 9 7.5 4.1 | -19.9 -3.8 295 19 10 7.1 3.9
22000 -18.4 -1.1 295 18 9 7.5 4.1 | -17.9 -0.2 290 19 10 7.1 3.9
21000 -16.2 2.8 295 17 9 7.2 3.9 | -15.7 3.7 290 18 9 7.4 4.1
20000 -14.1 6.6 300 16 8 7.2 4.0 | -13.5 7.7 295 17 9 7.5 4.1
19500 -13.0 8.6 300 16 8 7.1 3.9 | -12.4 9.7 295 16 8 7.4 4.1
19000 -11.9 10.6 300 16 8 8.0 4.4 | -11.3 11.7 300 16 8 7.8 4.3
18500 -10.7 12.7 300 15 8 8.1 4.4 | -10.2 13.6 305 15 8 7.9 4.3
18000 -9.6 14.7 300 15 8 8.2 4.5 | -9.0 15.8 305 15 8 8.1 4.4
17500 -8.3 17.1 305 15 7 8.6 4.7 | -7.8 18.0 310 14 7 8.5 4.7
17000 -7.0 19.4 305 14 7 8.6 4.7 | -6.6 20.1 315 13 7 8.5 4.7
16500 -5.8 21.6 305 14 7 8.7 4.8 | -5.3 22.5 320 13 7 8.6 4.7
16000 -4.5 23.9 305 14 7 8.7 4.8 | -4.1 24.6 320 13 7 8.6 4.7
15500 -3.2 26.2 310 14 7 8.9 4.9 | -2.8 27.0 325 12 6 8.6 4.7
15000 -1.9 28.6 310 13 7 9.0 4.9 | -1.5 29.3 325 12 6 8.6 4.7
14500 -0.5 31.1 310 13 7 9.1 5.0 | -0.3 31.5 325 12 6 8.7 4.8
14000 0.8 33.4 310 13 7 9.2 5.1 | 1.0 33.8 330 12 6 8.9 4.9
13500 2.1 35.8 310 13 7 9.2 5.1 | 2.3 36.1 330 12 6 8.9 4.9
13000 3.5 38.3 310 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 3.7 38.7 330 12 6 9.2 5.0
12500 4.8 40.6 310 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 5.0 41.0 330 12 6 9.2 5.0
12000 6.2 43.2 310 12 6 9.3 5.1 | 6.4 43.5 330 12 6 9.2 5.0
11500 7.6 45.7 315 12 6 9.4 5.2 | 7.7 45.9 330 12 6 9.3 5.1
11000 8.9 48.0 310 12 6 8.3 4.5 | 9.1 48.4 330 12 6 8.6 4.7
10500 10.1 50.2 310 11 6 9.2 5.0 | 10.3 50.5 330 12 6 9.6 5.3
10250 10.8 51.4 310 11 6 10.8 5.9 | 11.1 52.0 325 12 6 10.6 5.8
10000 11.6 52.9 315 11 6 10.0 5.5 | 11.8 53.2 325 12 6 9.3 5.1
9750 12.3 54.1 315 11 6 9.4 5.2 | 12.5 54.5 325 11 6 8.9 4.9
9500 13.0 55.4 310 11 6 9.6 5.3 | 13.2 55.8 325 11 6 8.8 4.8
9250 13.7 56.7 310 11 6 9.4 5.2 | 13.8 56.8 320 11 6 9.7 5.3
9000 14.4 57.9 310 11 6 9.6 5.3 | 14.6 58.3 325 11 6 9.4 5.2
8750 15.1 59.2 310 11 6 9.8 5.4 | 15.2 59.4 320 11 6 8.4 4.6
8500 16.6 61.9 310 11 6 8.7 4.8 | 16.5 61.7 320 11 6 8.7 4.8
8250 17.2 63.0 310 11 6 9.3 5.1 | 17.2 63.0 320 11 6 9.2 5.0
8000 18.0 64.4 310 11 6 11.1 6.1 | 17.9 64.2 320 11 6 9.7 5.3
7750 18.8 65.8 310 11 5 10.4 5.7 | 18.6 65.5 315 10 5 9.4 5.2
7500 19.5 67.1 310 10 5 8.6 4.7 | 19.3 66.7 315 10 5 8.7 4.8
7250 20.1 68.2 310 11 5 8.5 4.7 | 19.9 67.8 315 11 5 8.8 4.8
7000 20.8 69.4 310 10 5 11.4 6.2 | 20.6 69.1 315 10 5 10.5 5.8
6750 21.7 71.1 310 10 5 11.8 6.5 | 21.4 70.5 315 10 5 10.9 6.0
6500 22.6 72.7 310 10 5 10.8 5.9 | 22.2 72.0 315 10 5 10.4 5.7
6250 23.4 74.1 305 10 5 10.5 5.8 | 23.0 73.4 315 10 5 10.2 5.6
6000 24.1 75.4 305 10 5 10.7 5.9 | 23.7 74.7 315 10 5 9.8 5.4
5750 25.2 77.4 310 9 5 20.5 11.2 | 24.6 76.3 315 8 4 14.6 8.0
5500 27.9 82.2 310 9 5 59.4 32.6 | 26.3 79.3 315 8 4 38.3 21.0
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
042613
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page