948
UXUS97 KGJT 201306
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
606 AM MST WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2024
THIS FORECAST IS FOR WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2024:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 42.0 F/5.6 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 468 FT/MIN (2.4 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 11201 FT MSL (6362 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 47.0 F/8.8 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1130 MST
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 8573 FT MSL (3734 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY 11/21..... FAIR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:03:44 / 16:56:07 MST
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 9 HR 52 MIN 23 SEC (592 MIN 23 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 11:59:55 MST... 30.96 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 11/20/2024 AT 0500 MST
FREEZING LEVEL.................. ENTIRE AIRMASS BELOW 32 F / 0 C
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 25327 FT MSL (20488 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 16472 FT MSL (11633 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +18.6
K INDEX......................... -26.8
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.4 -78.5 285 49 25 1.7 0.9 101.4 214.5 52.6 M M
45000 -65.6 -86.1 285 75 39 -2.6 -1.4 69.1 156.5 36.9 M M
40000 -64.1 -83.4 300 103 53 4.8 2.6 48.1 118.6 25.9 M M
38000 -59.5 -75.1 295 101 52 7.9 4.3 45.1 113.2 24.7 M M
36000 -54.8 -66.6 295 95 49 6.5 3.6 43.3 109.9 24.1 M M
34000 -50.9 -59.6 290 84 43 7.7 4.2 40.6 105.0 22.8 M M
32000 -46.1 -51.0 280 67 34 6.7 3.7 39.0 102.2 22.3 M M
30000 -42.2 -44.0 285 59 30 9.1 5.0 36.4 97.4 20.9 M M
29000 -39.4 -38.9 285 61 31 9.4 5.1 36.2 97.2 21.0 M M
28000 -36.8 -34.2 285 65 33 7.6 4.2 35.8 96.4 21.0 M M
27000 -34.5 -30.1 290 60 31 7.8 4.3 35.0 95.0 20.6 M M
26000 -32.1 -25.8 290 60 31 8.3 4.6 34.3 93.8 20.3 M M
25000 -29.3 -20.7 290 60 31 8.9 4.9 34.2 93.5 20.4 M M
24000 -26.8 -16.2 285 58 30 8.8 4.8 33.6 92.5 20.2 M M
23000 -24.2 -11.6 285 56 29 7.8 4.3 33.2 91.7 20.1 M M
22000 -21.8 -7.2 290 53 27 8.2 4.5 32.5 90.5 19.8 M M
21000 -19.9 -3.8 290 51 26 6.0 3.3 31.3 88.4 19.0 M M
20000 -17.5 0.5 300 44 23 7.0 3.9 29.8 85.7 18.0 M M
19500 -16.5 2.3 300 45 23 6.9 3.8 29.3 84.8 17.7 M M
19000 -15.5 4.1 295 46 23 6.7 3.7 28.8 83.8 17.3 M M
18500 -14.8 5.4 285 44 22 5.6 3.1 27.9 82.3 16.7 M M
18000 -13.6 7.5 290 42 22 7.8 4.3 27.6 81.7 16.5 M M
17500 -12.5 9.5 285 45 23 6.1 3.3 27.1 80.8 16.2 M M
17000 -11.6 11.1 280 47 24 6.4 3.5 26.5 79.8 15.7 M M
16500 -10.8 12.6 275 45 23 4.1 2.2 25.8 78.5 15.2 M M
16000 -10.3 13.5 280 44 22 3.2 1.8 24.8 76.6 14.3 M M
15500 -9.7 14.5 280 40 21 -1.0 -0.5 23.7 74.7 13.4 M M
15000 -10.2 13.6 275 35 18 -1.7 -0.9 21.5 70.8 11.5 M M
14500 -10.5 13.1 270 37 19 -4.0 -2.2 19.6 67.3 9.9 M M
14000 -11.8 10.8 270 28 14 -9.4 -5.1 16.5 61.8 7.2 M M
13500 -13.1 8.4 270 30 15 -1.5 -0.8 13.4 56.2 4.5 M M
13000 -12.3 9.9 265 27 14 5.3 2.9 12.6 54.7 3.8 M M
12500 -11.9 10.6 260 25 13 1.2 0.7 11.5 52.7 2.8 M M
12000 -11.3 11.7 255 23 12 1.8 1.0 10.5 50.9 1.9 M M
11500 -11.3 11.7 250 21 11 2.4 1.3 9.0 48.1 0.5 M M
11000 -10.6 12.9 240 16 8 5.1 2.8 8.1 46.7 -0.3 452 2.3
10500 -9.8 14.4 235 16 8 4.8 2.6 7.4 45.3 -0.9 414 2.1
10250 -9.4 15.1 235 15 8 6.5 3.6 7.0 44.7 -1.3 394 2.0
10000 -8.8 16.2 235 15 8 8.9 4.9 6.9 44.4 -1.4 369 1.9
9750 -8.1 17.4 230 14 7 7.6 4.2 6.8 44.2 -1.5 342 1.7
9500 -7.6 18.3 230 14 7 5.8 3.2 6.6 43.8 -1.7 320 1.6
9250 -7.2 19.0 235 14 7 5.5 3.0 6.2 43.2 -2.1 300 1.5
9000 -6.8 19.8 225 9 4 5.6 3.1 5.9 42.6 -2.4 281 1.4
8750 -6.4 20.5 215 6 3 5.6 3.1 5.6 42.0 -2.7 261 1.3
8500 -6.0 21.2 190 6 3 5.6 3.1 5.2 41.4 -3.0 241 1.2
8250 -5.6 21.9 165 8 4 5.6 3.1 4.9 40.8 -3.4 222 1.1
8000 -5.2 22.6 155 11 6 5.6 3.1 4.6 40.3 -3.7 202 1.0
7750 -4.8 23.4 155 13 7 5.5 3.0 4.3 39.7 -4.0 182 0.9
7500 -4.3 24.3 155 16 8 6.0 3.3 3.9 39.1 -4.4 162 0.8
7250 -3.9 25.0 160 15 8 4.4 2.4 3.6 38.5 -4.7 143 0.7
7000 -3.9 25.0 150 16 8 -4.4 -2.4 2.9 37.3 -5.4 134 0.7
6750 -4.4 24.1 145 16 8 -3.4 -1.9 1.7 35.1 -6.6 141 0.7
6500 -4.4 24.1 135 14 7 -0.5 -0.3 1.0 33.7 -7.4 133 0.7
6250 -4.5 23.9 130 11 6 2.1 1.2 0.1 32.2 -8.3 129 0.7
6000 -4.0 24.8 120 12 6 8.7 4.8 -0.1 31.8 -8.5 107 0.5
5750 -3.4 25.9 120 12 6 7.4 4.1 -0.2 31.6 -8.7 81 0.4
5500 -2.8 27.0 125 13 7 10.0 5.5 -0.4 31.3 -8.8 56 0.3
5250 -2.1 28.2 125 14 7 2.1 1.1 -0.5 31.2 -9.0 30 0.2
5000 -3.0 26.6 120 10 5 -25.0 -13.7 -2.0 28.4 -10.6 48 0.2
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
11/20/2024 AT 0800 MST | 11/20/2024 AT 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +13.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +11.9
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -12.9 | CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... -8.3
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.0 -83.2 280 53 27 -2.0 -1.1 | -64.4 -83.9 275 49 25 -1.8 -1.0
45000 -66.9 -88.4 280 67 35 0.9 0.5 | -66.8 -88.2 280 67 35 4.0 2.2
40000 -61.7 -79.1 290 89 46 3.4 1.9 | -61.5 -78.7 285 86 45 3.6 2.0
38000 -58.1 -72.6 290 88 46 7.1 3.9 | -57.8 -72.0 285 84 43 7.1 3.9
36000 -53.9 -65.0 290 85 44 7.1 3.9 | -53.6 -64.5 285 78 40 7.1 3.9
34000 -49.6 -57.3 290 80 41 7.3 4.0 | -49.2 -56.6 285 73 37 7.7 4.2
32000 -45.2 -49.4 290 73 38 7.3 4.0 | -44.5 -48.1 285 70 36 7.7 4.2
30000 -40.7 -41.3 285 66 34 7.9 4.3 | -39.9 -39.8 285 65 33 7.7 4.2
29000 -38.3 -36.9 285 63 32 7.9 4.3 | -37.6 -35.7 285 61 31 7.7 4.2
28000 -35.9 -32.6 285 59 30 7.9 4.3 | -35.3 -31.5 285 57 29 7.7 4.2
27000 -33.6 -28.5 285 56 29 7.9 4.4 | -32.3 -26.1 285 52 27 8.1 4.5
26000 -31.2 -24.2 285 53 27 8.0 4.4 | -29.9 -21.8 285 49 25 8.1 4.5
25000 -28.2 -18.8 285 50 26 8.0 4.4 | -27.5 -17.5 285 47 24 8.1 4.5
24000 -25.9 -14.6 285 47 24 6.9 3.8 | -25.2 -13.4 285 44 23 6.6 3.6
23000 -23.8 -10.8 285 45 23 7.0 3.8 | -23.1 -9.6 285 42 22 6.7 3.7
22000 -21.7 -7.1 285 42 21 7.0 3.8 | -21.1 -6.0 285 40 21 6.7 3.7
21000 -19.7 -3.5 285 39 20 6.3 3.5 | -19.2 -2.6 285 38 20 6.1 3.4
20000 -17.8 -0.0 285 38 20 6.4 3.5 | -17.4 0.7 285 37 19 6.1 3.4
19500 -16.9 1.6 285 37 19 6.4 3.5 | -16.5 2.3 285 37 19 6.2 3.4
19000 -15.9 3.4 285 37 19 6.4 3.5 | -15.6 3.9 285 36 19 6.2 3.4
18500 -15.0 5.0 285 36 19 6.0 3.3 | -14.7 5.5 285 36 19 5.4 2.9
18000 -14.1 6.6 285 36 19 6.0 3.3 | -13.9 7.0 290 36 18 5.5 3.0
17500 -13.2 8.2 285 36 19 5.5 3.0 | -13.1 8.4 290 35 18 5.1 2.8
17000 -12.5 9.5 285 36 19 5.1 2.8 | -12.4 9.7 290 35 18 4.9 2.7
16500 -11.7 10.9 280 36 19 5.0 2.7 | -11.7 10.9 290 35 18 4.8 2.6
16000 -11.1 12.0 280 36 19 3.6 2.0 | -11.0 12.2 290 35 18 4.4 2.4
15500 -10.6 12.9 280 35 18 3.9 2.1 | -10.4 13.3 290 35 18 4.5 2.5
15000 -10.1 13.8 280 34 18 2.2 1.2 | -9.8 14.4 285 34 17 3.8 2.1
14500 -9.7 14.5 280 33 17 2.2 1.2 | -9.2 15.4 285 32 17 3.9 2.1
14000 -9.4 15.1 275 31 16 1.7 0.9 | -8.6 16.5 285 31 16 3.4 1.9
13500 -9.2 15.4 275 29 15 1.6 0.9 | -8.1 17.4 280 29 15 3.3 1.8
13000 -8.9 16.0 270 27 14 1.6 0.9 | -7.6 18.3 280 27 14 3.1 1.7
12500 -8.7 16.3 270 25 13 1.6 0.9 | -7.1 19.2 275 25 13 3.0 1.7
12000 -8.4 16.9 265 23 12 2.0 1.1 | -6.7 19.9 275 23 12 2.5 1.4
11500 -8.0 17.6 260 21 11 2.2 1.2 | -6.3 20.7 270 20 10 2.4 1.3
11000 -7.7 18.1 255 19 10 2.6 1.4 | -5.9 21.4 260 18 9 2.3 1.3
10500 -7.2 19.0 250 17 9 2.7 1.5 | -5.6 21.9 255 16 8 2.3 1.3
10250 -7.0 19.4 245 16 8 2.9 1.6 | -5.4 22.3 255 15 8 2.6 1.4
10000 -6.8 19.8 245 15 8 3.6 1.9 | -5.2 22.6 250 14 7 3.0 1.6
9750 -6.5 20.3 240 14 7 4.2 2.3 | -4.9 23.2 250 14 7 2.8 1.5
9500 -6.2 20.8 235 13 7 4.5 2.5 | -4.7 23.5 245 12 6 2.3 1.3
9250 -5.8 21.6 230 12 6 4.2 2.3 | -4.5 23.9 240 11 6 3.2 1.8
9000 -5.2 22.6 215 9 5 4.1 2.2 | -3.9 25.0 230 9 5 3.6 2.0
8750 -4.9 23.2 205 9 4 4.2 2.3 | -3.7 25.3 220 8 4 3.4 1.9
8500 -4.6 23.7 195 8 4 4.3 2.4 | -3.4 25.9 210 7 3 3.9 2.2
8250 -4.2 24.4 185 8 4 4.9 2.7 | -3.1 26.4 200 6 3 3.9 2.1
8000 -3.9 25.0 175 9 4 3.3 1.8 | -2.8 27.0 190 6 3 4.6 2.5
7750 -3.7 25.3 175 8 4 2.5 1.4 | -2.4 27.7 180 5 3 4.4 2.4
7500 -3.5 25.7 165 9 5 3.5 1.9 | -2.1 28.2 170 5 3 3.8 2.1
7250 -3.2 26.2 160 9 5 3.7 2.1 | -1.9 28.6 160 5 3 2.8 1.5
7000 -3.0 26.6 155 10 5 2.3 1.3 | -1.6 29.1 155 5 3 7.4 4.1
6750 -2.9 26.8 150 8 4 1.7 0.9 | -0.8 30.6 150 4 2 10.4 5.7
6500 -2.7 27.1 145 7 4 3.2 1.7 | -0.2 31.6 150 4 2 8.5 4.6
6250 -2.5 27.5 140 7 3 1.6 0.9 | 0.5 32.9 145 4 2 7.3 4.0
6000 -2.6 27.3 135 7 4 -6.7 -3.6 | 1.0 33.8 140 4 2 10.3 5.7
5750 -3.5 25.7 125 6 3 -16.5 -9.0 | 2.2 36.0 135 4 2 21.6 11.8
5500 -4.4 24.1 090 4 2 -0.3 -0.2 | 3.5 38.3 135 4 2 2.0 1.1
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
11/20/2024 AT 1400 MST | 11/20/2024 AT 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +9.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +8.5
CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... -3.8 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -2.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.6 -86.1 280 55 28 -1.7 -0.9 | -66.5 -87.7 280 55 28 -1.4 -0.8
45000 -67.7 -89.9 280 73 37 4.8 2.6 | -68.1 -90.6 280 73 38 5.2 2.9
40000 -61.3 -78.3 285 92 47 4.3 2.4 | -60.9 -77.6 285 88 45 4.9 2.7
38000 -57.6 -71.7 285 88 45 7.0 3.9 | -57.1 -70.8 285 85 44 6.9 3.8
36000 -53.3 -63.9 285 79 41 7.0 3.9 | -52.5 -62.5 285 79 41 6.9 3.8
34000 -48.3 -54.9 285 73 37 8.0 4.4 | -48.1 -54.6 285 75 38 7.8 4.3
32000 -43.5 -46.3 285 70 36 8.0 4.4 | -43.4 -46.1 285 71 37 7.8 4.3
30000 -38.8 -37.8 285 66 34 7.6 4.1 | -38.8 -37.8 285 67 34 7.7 4.2
29000 -36.6 -33.9 285 62 32 7.6 4.1 | -36.5 -33.7 285 65 33 7.7 4.2
28000 -34.3 -29.7 285 58 30 7.6 4.2 | -34.2 -29.6 285 62 32 7.7 4.2
27000 -32.0 -25.6 285 55 28 7.7 4.2 | -31.9 -25.4 285 60 31 7.6 4.2
26000 -29.7 -21.5 285 53 27 7.7 4.2 | -29.7 -21.5 285 57 30 7.6 4.2
25000 -27.4 -17.3 285 51 26 7.7 4.3 | -27.4 -17.3 285 55 28 7.6 4.2
24000 -25.2 -13.4 285 49 25 6.7 3.7 | -25.1 -13.2 285 52 27 7.5 4.1
23000 -23.2 -9.8 285 46 24 6.6 3.6 | -22.9 -9.2 285 50 26 7.5 4.1
22000 -21.3 -6.3 285 43 22 6.6 3.6 | -20.1 -4.2 285 47 24 7.5 4.1
21000 -18.8 -1.8 285 41 21 6.4 3.5 | -18.2 -0.8 285 44 23 6.1 3.3
20000 -17.0 1.4 285 40 20 6.4 3.5 | -16.4 2.5 285 42 22 6.0 3.3
19500 -16.0 3.2 285 39 20 6.4 3.5 | -15.5 4.1 285 41 21 6.0 3.3
19000 -15.1 4.8 285 38 20 6.3 3.4 | -14.6 5.7 285 40 20 6.0 3.3
18500 -14.2 6.4 285 38 20 5.9 3.2 | -13.7 7.3 285 39 20 6.0 3.3
18000 -13.3 8.1 285 38 20 5.9 3.3 | -12.8 9.0 285 38 19 6.1 3.3
17500 -12.5 9.5 290 38 19 5.7 3.2 | -11.9 10.6 285 37 19 6.0 3.3
17000 -11.6 11.1 290 37 19 5.7 3.1 | -11.1 12.0 285 36 18 6.0 3.3
16500 -10.8 12.6 290 37 19 5.7 3.1 | -10.2 13.6 285 35 18 5.9 3.3
16000 -10.0 14.0 290 36 18 5.5 3.0 | -9.3 15.3 285 34 17 5.9 3.2
15500 -9.2 15.4 290 35 18 5.5 3.0 | -8.4 16.9 285 32 17 5.9 3.2
15000 -8.4 16.9 290 33 17 5.1 2.8 | -7.6 18.3 285 31 16 5.5 3.0
14500 -7.6 18.3 290 32 16 5.3 2.9 | -6.8 19.8 285 30 15 5.5 3.0
14000 -6.9 19.6 290 30 15 4.2 2.3 | -6.0 21.2 285 28 14 5.1 2.8
13500 -6.3 20.7 290 28 14 4.4 2.4 | -5.2 22.6 280 26 13 5.2 2.9
13000 -5.7 21.7 290 25 13 3.4 1.9 | -4.5 23.9 280 24 12 4.3 2.4
12500 -5.2 22.6 285 23 12 3.4 1.8 | -3.9 25.0 275 22 11 4.3 2.4
12000 -4.7 23.5 280 21 11 2.7 1.5 | -3.3 26.1 270 20 10 3.3 1.8
11500 -4.3 24.3 275 18 9 2.6 1.4 | -2.8 27.0 265 17 9 3.3 1.8
11000 -3.9 25.0 265 16 8 2.1 1.1 | -2.3 27.9 260 15 8 2.4 1.3
10500 -3.6 25.5 260 14 7 1.9 1.1 | -2.0 28.4 250 13 7 2.2 1.2
10250 -3.4 25.9 255 13 7 2.6 1.4 | -1.8 28.8 245 13 6 2.7 1.5
10000 -3.2 26.2 250 13 7 3.0 1.7 | -1.6 29.1 240 12 6 2.7 1.5
9750 -2.9 26.8 245 12 6 2.5 1.4 | -1.4 29.5 240 11 6 2.0 1.1
9500 -2.7 27.1 240 11 6 2.2 1.2 | -1.2 29.8 230 11 5 1.6 0.9
9250 -2.5 27.5 235 10 5 3.4 1.9 | -1.1 30.0 225 10 5 3.0 1.7
9000 -2.2 28.0 230 9 5 4.5 2.5 | -0.8 30.6 220 9 5 4.2 2.3
8750 -1.9 28.6 230 9 4 3.4 1.8 | -0.5 31.1 210 9 5 2.6 1.4
8500 -1.7 28.9 225 8 4 3.1 1.7 | -0.1 31.8 200 8 4 3.8 2.1
8250 -1.4 29.5 220 7 3 3.9 2.1 | 0.3 32.5 190 7 4 4.9 2.7
8000 -0.8 30.6 200 4 2 4.6 2.5 | 0.6 33.1 180 6 3 2.8 1.6
7750 -0.4 31.3 195 4 2 6.2 3.4 | 0.8 33.4 180 5 3 3.5 1.9
7500 0.1 32.2 190 3 2 7.0 3.8 | 1.2 34.2 180 5 2 5.9 3.3
7250 0.6 33.1 190 2 1 6.0 3.3 | 1.6 34.9 175 4 2 5.9 3.2
7000 1.1 34.0 185 2 1 9.4 5.2 | 2.0 35.6 170 3 2 4.8 2.6
6750 2.0 35.6 190 2 1 11.1 6.1 | 2.4 36.3 170 2 1 5.7 3.1
6500 2.7 36.9 190 2 1 9.4 5.1 | 2.9 37.2 175 2 1 6.7 3.7
6250 3.4 38.1 195 2 1 8.6 4.7 | 3.4 38.1 190 1 0 8.6 4.7
6000 4.1 39.4 195 1 1 11.1 6.1 | 3.9 39.0 280 1 0 2.1 1.1
5750 5.2 41.4 195 1 1 19.6 10.8 | 3.4 38.1 300 1 1 -16.2 -8.9
5500 6.4 43.5 200 1 0 4.1 2.3 | 2.8 37.0 310 2 1 15.7 8.6
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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