242
UXUS97 KGJT 261307
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
707 AM MDT FRIDAY, JULY 26, 2024
THIS FORECAST IS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 26, 2024:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 85.4 F/29.7 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1645 FT/MIN (8.4 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 20250 FT MSL (15411 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 97.0 F/36.6 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1045 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 14122 FT MSL (9283 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 07/27..... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:10:10 / 20:31:12 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 21 MIN 2 SEC (861 MIN 2 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:20:41 MDT... 69.58 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 07/26/2024 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 16206 FT MSL (11367 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 14710 FT MSL (9871 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 15974 FT MSL (11135 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -5.0
K INDEX......................... +31.2
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.6 -87.9 325 18 9 5.2 2.9 81.8 179.2 26.6 M M
45000 -58.3 -72.9 280 23 12 2.2 1.2 70.0 158.1 21.3 M M
40000 -48.7 -55.7 295 30 15 8.3 4.6 62.4 144.2 17.6 M M
38000 -45.0 -49.0 275 28 14 6.3 3.5 59.3 138.8 16.0 M M
36000 -41.3 -42.3 275 21 11 7.1 3.9 56.2 133.2 14.2 M M
34000 -37.1 -34.8 260 13 7 7.2 3.9 54.1 129.3 12.9 M M
32000 -32.8 -27.0 245 20 10 9.0 5.0 51.9 125.4 11.6 M M
30000 -27.3 -17.1 235 24 12 8.3 4.6 50.5 122.9 10.8 M M
29000 -24.9 -12.8 230 21 11 7.3 4.0 49.8 121.7 10.4 M M
28000 -22.7 -8.9 225 23 12 7.4 4.1 48.9 120.0 9.8 M M
27000 -20.5 -4.9 240 21 11 7.6 4.1 48.0 118.4 9.2 M M
26000 -18.3 -0.9 235 15 8 7.6 4.1 47.2 116.9 8.6 M M
25000 -16.6 2.1 220 11 6 5.3 2.9 45.6 114.1 7.4 M M
24000 -15.1 4.8 205 7 4 3.3 1.8 43.9 111.0 6.1 M M
23000 -14.1 6.6 160 6 3 3.6 2.0 41.5 106.8 4.2 M M
22000 -13.1 8.4 190 5 3 4.0 2.2 39.3 102.7 2.4 M M
21000 -11.5 11.3 175 7 4 5.8 3.2 37.8 100.0 1.0 M M
20000 -9.8 14.4 235 6 3 6.4 3.5 36.4 97.5 -0.2 1429 7.3
19500 -8.9 16.0 245 9 4 4.9 2.7 35.7 96.3 -0.8 1387 7.0
19000 -7.7 18.1 250 10 5 11.7 6.4 35.5 95.9 -1.0 1337 6.8
18500 -6.1 21.0 280 10 5 11.2 6.1 35.7 96.3 -0.9 1275 6.5
18000 -4.6 23.7 280 8 4 11.1 6.1 36.0 96.8 -0.8 1213 6.2
17500 -3.0 26.6 265 10 5 9.3 5.1 36.2 97.2 -0.7 1151 5.8
17000 -2.3 27.9 255 14 7 6.2 3.4 35.4 95.7 -1.4 1114 5.7
16500 -0.4 31.3 255 14 7 7.8 4.3 35.2 95.3 -1.8 1037 5.3
16000 0.7 33.3 240 12 6 8.2 4.5 34.9 94.8 -2.1 987 5.0
15500 1.9 35.4 225 14 7 8.1 4.4 34.6 94.3 -2.3 937 4.8
15000 3.1 37.6 220 14 7 8.1 4.4 34.4 93.9 -2.6 887 4.5
14500 4.3 39.7 225 14 7 8.1 4.4 34.1 93.5 -2.8 836 4.2
14000 5.5 41.9 220 15 8 8.1 4.4 33.9 93.0 -3.1 786 4.0
13500 6.7 44.1 230 14 7 8.1 4.4 33.6 92.5 -3.4 735 3.7
13000 7.9 46.2 225 13 7 8.1 4.4 33.3 92.0 -3.7 685 3.5
12500 9.1 48.4 235 14 7 8.1 4.4 33.1 91.5 -4.0 634 3.2
12000 10.3 50.5 245 17 9 8.1 4.5 32.8 91.0 -4.3 584 3.0
11500 11.5 52.7 255 15 8 8.1 4.5 32.5 90.5 -4.6 533 2.7
11000 12.6 54.7 260 16 8 8.1 4.5 32.2 90.0 -4.9 483 2.5
10500 13.8 56.8 245 12 6 8.1 4.4 31.9 89.5 -5.2 433 2.2
10250 14.4 57.9 240 11 6 8.0 4.4 31.8 89.3 -5.3 408 2.1
10000 15.0 59.0 235 11 6 8.0 4.4 31.7 89.0 -5.5 383 1.9
9750 15.6 60.1 240 10 5 8.0 4.4 31.6 88.8 -5.6 358 1.8
9500 16.2 61.2 250 9 4 8.1 4.4 31.4 88.6 -5.8 333 1.7
9250 16.8 62.2 260 8 4 8.1 4.4 31.3 88.3 -5.9 308 1.6
9000 17.3 63.1 270 7 4 8.1 4.4 31.2 88.1 -6.1 283 1.4
8750 17.9 64.2 265 7 3 8.1 4.4 31.0 87.9 -6.2 258 1.3
8500 18.5 65.3 245 5 3 8.1 4.4 30.9 87.6 -6.4 233 1.2
8250 19.1 66.4 215 5 2 8.1 4.4 30.8 87.4 -6.6 208 1.1
8000 19.7 67.5 190 6 3 8.1 4.4 30.7 87.2 -6.7 183 0.9
7750 20.3 68.5 180 7 4 8.1 4.4 30.5 86.9 -6.9 158 0.8
7500 20.9 69.6 170 11 6 8.1 4.5 30.4 86.7 -7.1 134 0.7
7250 21.4 70.5 170 14 7 7.9 4.3 30.2 86.4 -7.2 109 0.6
7000 22.0 71.6 165 18 9 6.9 3.8 30.1 86.1 -7.4 85 0.4
6750 22.5 72.5 165 18 9 6.1 3.4 29.8 85.7 -7.7 63 0.3
6500 22.9 73.2 170 19 10 7.4 4.0 29.6 85.2 -7.9 41 0.2
6250 23.4 74.1 170 19 10 4.2 2.3 29.4 84.8 -8.2 21 0.1
6000 23.4 74.1 175 14 7 -0.2 -0.1 28.7 83.7 -9.0 14 0.1
5750 23.3 73.9 170 12 6 -0.7 -0.4 27.9 82.3 -9.8 8 0.0
5500 23.3 73.9 155 10 5 1.7 0.9 27.2 81.0 -10.6 3 0.0
5250 23.5 74.3 135 10 5 7.4 4.0 26.8 80.3 -11.1 M M
5000 23.9 75.0 120 12 6 2.0 1.1 26.6 79.8 -11.5 M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
07/26/2024 AT 0900 MDT | 07/26/2024 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +494.7 LI... -2.0 | CAPE... +528.8 LI... -2.7
CINH... -142.0 K INDEX... +29.2 | CINH... -42.5 K INDEX... +28.6
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.1 -81.6 285 13 7 2.4 1.3 | -63.2 -81.8 270 11 6 1.6 0.9
45000 -57.5 -71.5 285 25 13 6.0 3.3 | -58.3 -72.9 280 23 12 6.2 3.4
40000 -48.0 -54.4 280 39 20 6.3 3.5 | -48.4 -55.1 280 39 20 6.4 3.5
38000 -44.2 -47.6 275 34 17 6.3 3.5 | -44.5 -48.1 285 37 19 6.4 3.5
36000 -40.4 -40.7 275 29 15 6.3 3.4 | -40.6 -41.1 285 34 18 6.5 3.6
34000 -36.6 -33.9 260 21 11 6.2 3.4 | -36.7 -34.1 275 28 15 6.6 3.6
32000 -32.9 -27.2 230 16 8 6.8 3.7 | -32.7 -26.9 265 23 12 6.8 3.7
30000 -28.8 -19.8 230 15 8 6.9 3.8 | -28.5 -19.3 255 20 10 7.1 3.9
29000 -26.8 -16.2 235 15 8 6.9 3.8 | -26.4 -15.5 245 19 10 7.1 3.9
28000 -24.7 -12.5 235 14 7 7.1 3.9 | -24.3 -11.7 240 18 9 7.1 3.9
27000 -22.6 -8.7 235 14 7 7.1 3.9 | -22.2 -8.0 245 18 9 7.1 3.9
26000 -19.9 -3.8 240 14 7 7.2 3.9 | -19.6 -3.3 245 17 9 7.1 3.9
25000 -17.8 -0.0 240 13 7 6.8 3.7 | -17.5 0.5 250 16 8 6.6 3.6
24000 -15.8 3.6 250 13 7 6.7 3.7 | -15.6 3.9 250 15 8 6.4 3.5
23000 -13.8 7.2 255 14 7 6.8 3.7 | -13.7 7.3 250 14 7 6.5 3.5
22000 -11.8 10.8 260 14 7 6.8 3.7 | -11.8 10.8 255 13 7 6.5 3.6
21000 -9.9 14.2 265 14 7 6.8 3.8 | -9.9 14.2 265 13 7 6.6 3.6
20000 -7.9 17.8 275 15 8 6.9 3.8 | -8.0 17.6 270 14 7 6.7 3.7
19500 -6.9 19.6 275 15 8 7.0 3.8 | -7.0 19.4 275 14 7 6.8 3.7
19000 -5.9 21.4 280 15 8 7.0 3.9 | -6.0 21.2 280 14 7 7.1 3.9
18500 -4.8 23.4 280 15 8 7.0 3.9 | -5.0 23.0 285 15 8 7.1 3.9
18000 -3.8 25.2 285 15 8 7.2 4.0 | -3.9 25.0 285 15 8 7.5 4.1
17500 -2.8 27.0 285 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -2.9 26.8 285 15 8 7.5 4.1
17000 -1.7 28.9 285 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -1.8 28.8 290 16 8 7.7 4.2
16500 -0.7 30.7 285 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -0.6 30.9 290 16 8 8.1 4.4
16000 0.4 32.7 285 15 8 7.3 4.0 | 0.5 32.9 290 16 8 8.0 4.4
15500 1.5 34.7 285 14 7 8.1 4.4 | 1.7 35.1 290 16 8 8.6 4.7
15000 2.6 36.7 285 13 7 8.0 4.4 | 3.0 37.4 290 16 8 8.6 4.7
14500 3.8 38.8 280 13 7 8.4 4.6 | 4.2 39.6 285 16 8 8.5 4.7
14000 5.0 41.0 280 12 6 8.5 4.7 | 5.5 41.9 285 15 8 8.5 4.7
13500 6.3 43.3 280 11 6 8.6 4.7 | 6.7 44.1 285 14 7 8.5 4.7
13000 7.5 45.5 280 11 6 8.6 4.7 | 8.0 46.4 280 13 7 8.5 4.7
12500 8.8 47.8 280 10 5 8.4 4.6 | 9.2 48.6 275 12 6 8.5 4.7
12000 10.0 50.0 280 10 5 8.0 4.4 | 10.4 50.7 270 11 6 8.5 4.6
11500 11.2 52.2 280 9 5 7.9 4.3 | 11.6 52.9 270 10 5 8.5 4.6
11000 12.3 54.1 275 9 5 7.5 4.1 | 12.9 55.2 265 10 5 8.3 4.6
10500 13.4 56.1 275 8 4 6.7 3.7 | 14.1 57.4 260 9 5 6.7 3.7
10250 13.8 56.8 285 8 4 6.2 3.4 | 14.5 58.1 260 9 5 7.3 4.0
10000 14.3 57.7 280 8 4 7.0 3.8 | 15.2 59.4 260 8 4 10.0 5.5
9750 14.8 58.6 275 7 4 6.8 3.7 | 15.9 60.6 260 8 4 9.4 5.2
9500 15.3 59.5 270 6 3 6.7 3.7 | 16.6 61.9 255 7 4 9.1 5.0
9250 15.8 60.4 265 6 3 6.3 3.5 | 17.8 64.0 250 5 3 7.5 4.1
9000 16.2 61.2 265 5 3 5.6 3.1 | 18.3 64.9 250 5 2 8.0 4.4
8750 17.0 62.6 245 4 2 5.3 2.9 | 18.9 66.0 245 4 2 7.2 4.0
8500 17.3 63.1 240 4 2 4.9 2.7 | 19.3 66.7 240 3 2 4.9 2.7
8250 17.7 63.9 240 4 2 5.2 2.8 | 19.7 67.5 230 2 1 6.9 3.8
8000 18.0 64.4 235 3 2 5.9 3.2 | 20.3 68.5 225 2 1 10.0 5.5
7750 18.4 65.1 225 3 1 5.2 2.8 | 21.0 69.8 220 2 1 8.6 4.7
7500 18.8 65.8 220 3 1 4.2 2.3 | 21.5 70.7 210 2 1 7.1 3.9
7250 19.1 66.4 220 3 1 5.1 2.8 | 22.1 71.8 195 2 1 8.5 4.7
7000 19.5 67.1 210 2 1 8.2 4.5 | 22.9 73.2 195 2 1 13.1 7.2
6750 20.1 68.2 190 2 1 8.8 4.8 | 23.9 75.0 200 2 1 12.1 6.6
6500 20.7 69.3 190 2 1 7.8 4.3 | 24.6 76.3 190 2 1 9.7 5.3
6250 21.3 70.3 190 2 1 7.7 4.2 | 25.4 77.7 180 2 1 9.3 5.1
6000 21.9 71.4 185 2 1 10.8 5.9 | 26.1 79.0 175 2 1 13.6 7.5
5750 22.9 73.2 170 2 1 17.5 9.6 | 27.6 81.7 190 1 1 27.4 15.1
5500 23.9 75.0 165 2 1 5.8 3.2 | 29.6 85.3 165 1 1 20.5 11.2
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
07/26/2024 AT 1500 MDT | 07/26/2024 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +376.3 LI... -2.1 | CAPE... +186.9 LI... -1.4
CINH... -9.3 K INDEX... +26.4 | CINH... -20.6 K INDEX... +28.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.2 -81.8 250 12 6 1.5 0.8 | -63.2 -81.8 255 15 8 1.7 0.9
45000 -58.5 -73.3 270 23 12 5.9 3.3 | -58.5 -73.3 270 27 14 5.8 3.2
40000 -48.9 -56.0 285 37 19 6.7 3.7 | -49.1 -56.4 280 39 20 6.8 3.7
38000 -44.9 -48.8 285 35 18 6.7 3.7 | -45.0 -49.0 285 35 18 6.8 3.7
36000 -40.8 -41.4 285 33 17 7.1 3.9 | -41.0 -41.8 285 31 16 7.2 4.0
34000 -36.3 -33.3 285 28 15 7.4 4.1 | -36.4 -33.5 280 27 14 7.6 4.2
32000 -31.9 -25.4 280 24 12 7.5 4.1 | -31.8 -25.2 275 22 11 7.7 4.2
30000 -28.1 -18.6 270 22 11 6.3 3.4 | -27.8 -18.0 275 23 12 6.5 3.6
29000 -26.2 -15.2 265 21 11 6.3 3.4 | -25.9 -14.6 270 24 12 6.5 3.6
28000 -24.3 -11.7 265 21 11 7.0 3.8 | -24.0 -11.2 270 24 12 6.8 3.7
27000 -22.1 -7.8 265 20 10 7.2 3.9 | -21.9 -7.4 275 24 13 6.8 3.7
26000 -19.5 -3.1 265 20 10 7.2 3.9 | -19.4 -2.9 275 24 13 6.8 3.7
25000 -17.3 0.9 265 19 10 7.2 3.9 | -17.3 0.9 275 24 13 7.0 3.8
24000 -15.2 4.6 265 18 9 7.2 3.9 | -15.2 4.6 275 23 12 7.1 3.9
23000 -13.1 8.4 265 16 8 7.2 3.9 | -13.1 8.4 275 21 11 7.1 3.9
22000 -11.0 12.2 265 15 8 6.2 3.4 | -11.1 12.0 270 19 10 6.5 3.6
21000 -9.3 15.3 265 14 7 6.1 3.3 | -9.2 15.4 270 18 9 6.4 3.5
20000 -7.5 18.5 265 14 7 6.2 3.4 | -7.4 18.7 270 17 9 6.5 3.6
19500 -6.6 20.1 265 14 7 6.4 3.5 | -6.5 20.3 265 16 8 6.8 3.7
19000 -5.7 21.7 265 14 7 6.9 3.8 | -5.4 22.3 270 16 8 7.6 4.2
18500 -4.7 23.5 270 14 7 6.9 3.8 | -4.3 24.3 270 15 8 7.6 4.2
18000 -3.6 25.5 270 15 8 7.8 4.3 | -3.2 26.2 270 15 7 8.0 4.4
17500 -2.5 27.5 270 15 8 7.9 4.4 | -2.1 28.2 270 14 7 8.1 4.4
17000 -1.3 29.7 270 15 8 8.2 4.5 | -0.9 30.4 270 14 7 8.2 4.5
16500 -0.1 31.8 275 15 8 8.7 4.8 | 0.3 32.5 265 14 7 8.5 4.7
16000 1.2 34.2 275 15 8 8.7 4.8 | 1.5 34.7 265 14 7 8.5 4.7
15500 2.5 36.5 275 15 8 9.0 4.9 | 2.8 37.0 265 14 7 9.0 4.9
15000 3.8 38.8 275 15 8 9.0 4.9 | 4.1 39.4 265 14 7 9.0 4.9
14500 5.1 41.2 275 15 8 9.0 5.0 | 5.5 41.9 265 14 7 9.1 5.0
14000 6.5 43.7 275 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 6.8 44.2 265 14 7 9.2 5.0
13500 7.8 46.0 270 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 8.2 46.8 265 14 7 9.2 5.1
13000 9.1 48.4 270 15 8 9.1 5.0 | 9.5 49.1 265 14 7 9.4 5.2
12500 10.5 50.9 270 15 7 9.1 5.0 | 10.9 51.6 265 14 7 9.4 5.1
12000 11.8 53.2 270 14 7 9.2 5.0 | 12.3 54.1 270 14 7 9.3 5.1
11500 13.2 55.8 270 14 7 9.1 5.0 | 13.7 56.7 270 14 7 9.4 5.1
11000 14.4 57.9 270 14 7 8.3 4.6 | 14.9 58.8 275 13 7 7.7 4.2
10500 15.6 60.1 270 13 7 10.6 5.8 | 16.0 60.8 275 13 7 11.2 6.1
10250 16.5 61.7 270 13 7 11.2 6.2 | 17.0 62.6 275 12 6 12.0 6.6
10000 17.2 63.0 270 12 6 8.7 4.8 | 17.7 63.9 280 12 6 8.2 4.5
9750 17.8 64.0 270 12 6 9.4 5.1 | 18.3 64.9 280 12 6 9.2 5.1
9500 18.5 65.3 270 12 6 9.2 5.1 | 19.0 66.2 280 11 6 8.9 4.9
9250 19.2 66.6 275 11 6 9.6 5.3 | 19.7 67.5 285 11 6 8.3 4.5
9000 19.9 67.8 275 11 6 9.8 5.4 | 21.0 69.8 285 11 5 9.9 5.5
8750 21.3 70.3 275 11 5 9.7 5.3 | 21.7 71.1 285 10 5 9.8 5.3
8500 22.0 71.6 275 10 5 8.5 4.7 | 22.4 72.3 290 10 5 9.1 5.0
8250 22.6 72.7 275 11 5 9.5 5.2 | 23.1 73.6 290 10 5 9.2 5.1
8000 23.4 74.1 275 10 5 11.2 6.2 | 23.8 74.8 290 10 5 10.0 5.5
7750 24.2 75.6 275 10 5 10.2 5.6 | 24.5 76.1 290 10 5 9.7 5.3
7500 24.9 76.8 275 10 5 8.5 4.6 | 25.2 77.4 295 9 5 8.8 4.8
7250 25.6 78.1 280 10 5 9.0 4.9 | 25.9 78.6 295 10 5 8.9 4.9
7000 26.3 79.3 280 10 5 11.9 6.5 | 26.6 79.9 295 10 5 10.4 5.7
6750 27.2 81.0 275 9 5 11.7 6.4 | 27.4 81.3 295 9 5 10.7 5.9
6500 28.1 82.6 275 9 5 10.6 5.8 | 28.2 82.8 295 9 5 10.3 5.7
6250 28.9 84.0 280 9 5 10.3 5.7 | 29.0 84.2 295 9 5 10.8 5.9
6000 29.6 85.3 280 9 5 10.4 5.7 | 29.7 85.5 295 9 5 7.8 4.3
5750 30.7 87.3 275 8 4 20.9 11.5 | 30.3 86.5 295 8 4 10.3 5.6
5500 33.4 92.1 280 8 4 61.8 33.9 | 32.5 90.5 300 8 4 64.1 35.1
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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