643
UXUS97 KGJT 181245
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
0645 MDT WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2019
THIS FORECAST IS FOR WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 18, 2019:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 77.8 F/25.5 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1033 FT/MIN (5.2 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 15849 FT MSL (11010 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 82.0 F/28.2 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1345 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 7132 FT MSL (2293 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY 09/19..... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
***ATTENTION SOARING FORECAST USERS***THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOULDER WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU.
PLEASE SEND AND EMAIL TO PAUL.T.SCHLATTER@NOAA.GOV AND LET US KNOW HOW YOU USE THE SOARING FORECAST. THANKS!
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 06:58:16 / 19:18:19 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 12 HR 20 MIN 3 SEC (740 MIN 3 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:08:18 MDT... 52.59 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 09/18/2019 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 13707 FT MSL (8868 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 18447 FT MSL (13608 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 16610 FT MSL (11770 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +2.6
K INDEX......................... +22.1
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.0 -81.4 250 38 19 -7.0 -3.8 92.0 197.7 37.0 M M
45000 -58.8 -73.8 245 27 14 -0.7 -0.4 73.2 163.7 28.1 M M
40000 -54.4 -65.9 235 49 25 3.4 1.9 57.1 134.8 19.5 M M
38000 -51.7 -61.1 235 44 23 4.9 2.7 52.1 125.8 16.6 M M
36000 -48.8 -55.8 235 39 20 5.7 3.1 48.1 118.5 14.2 M M
34000 -44.1 -47.4 235 33 17 8.3 4.6 46.3 115.3 13.3 M M
32000 -38.5 -37.3 230 27 14 8.3 4.5 45.0 113.1 12.7 M M
30000 -34.0 -29.2 225 24 12 7.2 3.9 43.4 110.1 11.8 M M
29000 -31.8 -25.2 220 22 12 7.2 3.9 42.3 108.2 11.1 M M
28000 -29.7 -21.5 215 21 11 7.9 4.3 41.4 106.5 10.5 M M
27000 -27.2 -17.0 185 12 6 8.1 4.5 40.8 105.4 10.2 M M
26000 -24.7 -12.5 175 12 6 9.1 5.0 40.3 104.5 9.9 M M
25000 -21.9 -7.4 165 13 7 9.7 5.3 40.1 104.2 9.9 M M
24000 -19.6 -3.3 175 11 6 5.7 3.1 39.3 102.8 9.4 M M
23000 -18.0 -0.4 210 14 7 5.5 3.0 37.8 100.0 8.2 M M
22000 -16.0 3.2 225 12 6 7.4 4.1 36.6 97.9 7.3 M M
21000 -13.8 7.2 245 12 6 7.5 4.1 35.8 96.5 6.7 M M
20000 -11.6 11.1 220 16 8 7.5 4.1 35.0 95.1 6.1 M M
19500 -10.5 13.1 215 20 10 7.6 4.2 34.6 94.3 5.7 M M
19000 -9.3 15.3 215 24 12 8.9 4.9 34.2 93.6 5.4 M M
18500 -8.4 16.9 210 24 12 3.6 2.0 33.7 92.6 4.9 M M
18000 -7.4 18.7 210 26 13 4.3 2.4 32.3 90.1 3.7 M M
17500 -6.7 19.9 200 27 14 5.3 2.9 31.4 88.5 3.0 M M
17000 -6.2 20.8 195 29 15 -0.8 -0.4 30.3 86.6 2.0 M M
16500 -5.9 21.4 210 32 16 6.9 3.8 29.2 84.5 0.9 M M
16000 -5.2 22.6 215 35 18 5.3 2.9 28.4 83.1 0.1 M M
15500 -4.5 23.9 215 33 17 8.0 4.4 27.8 82.0 -0.6 1000 5.1
15000 -3.2 26.2 215 31 16 8.8 4.8 27.6 81.7 -0.8 947 4.8
14500 -1.9 28.6 220 30 15 8.9 4.9 27.5 81.4 -1.0 894 4.5
14000 -0.6 30.9 220 28 14 8.9 4.9 27.3 81.2 -1.1 840 4.3
13500 0.7 33.3 220 26 14 9.2 5.1 27.2 81.0 -1.3 786 4.0
13000 2.1 35.8 220 25 13 9.2 5.1 27.1 80.8 -1.4 729 3.7
12500 3.5 38.3 215 23 12 9.2 5.1 27.1 80.7 -1.4 673 3.4
12000 4.9 40.8 215 22 11 9.2 5.1 27.0 80.6 -1.5 616 3.1
11500 6.3 43.3 215 20 10 9.2 5.1 26.9 80.4 -1.5 559 2.8
11000 7.7 45.9 220 18 9 9.1 5.0 26.8 80.3 -1.6 503 2.6
10500 9.0 48.2 225 16 8 8.7 4.8 26.7 80.0 -1.7 447 2.3
10250 9.7 49.5 225 15 8 8.8 4.8 26.6 79.9 -1.8 420 2.1
10000 10.4 50.7 225 15 8 8.8 4.8 26.5 79.7 -1.9 393 2.0
9750 11.0 51.8 225 15 8 8.8 4.8 26.4 79.6 -2.0 366 1.9
9500 11.7 53.1 225 14 7 8.8 4.8 26.4 79.5 -2.0 339 1.7
9250 12.3 54.1 225 14 7 8.8 4.8 26.3 79.4 -2.1 312 1.6
9000 13.0 55.4 225 14 7 8.8 4.8 26.2 79.2 -2.2 285 1.4
8750 13.6 56.5 220 13 7 8.8 4.8 26.2 79.1 -2.3 258 1.3
8500 14.3 57.7 220 12 6 8.8 4.8 26.1 79.0 -2.3 231 1.2
8250 14.9 58.8 215 12 6 8.8 4.8 26.0 78.8 -2.4 204 1.0
8000 15.6 60.1 210 11 6 8.8 4.8 25.9 78.7 -2.5 177 0.9
7750 16.2 61.2 205 10 5 8.7 4.8 25.9 78.5 -2.6 150 0.8
7500 16.9 62.4 200 10 5 8.9 4.9 25.8 78.4 -2.7 123 0.6
7250 17.5 63.5 195 9 5 8.2 4.5 25.7 78.2 -2.8 97 0.5
7000 17.9 64.2 190 8 4 1.3 0.7 25.4 77.7 -3.1 77 0.4
6750 17.7 63.9 175 8 4 -3.2 -1.7 24.5 76.0 -4.0 76 0.4
6500 17.5 63.5 155 9 4 -1.5 -0.8 23.6 74.4 -5.0 74 0.4
6250 17.5 63.5 140 10 5 2.5 1.4 22.8 73.0 -5.8 68 0.3
6000 17.9 64.2 125 12 6 5.5 3.0 22.4 72.4 -6.1 49 0.2
5750 18.3 64.9 125 12 6 4.3 2.4 22.0 71.7 -6.5 30 0.2
5500 18.7 65.7 120 10 5 6.0 3.3 21.7 71.0 -6.8 11 0.1
5250 18.9 66.0 115 8 4 -7.1 -3.9 21.1 70.0 -7.4 M M
5000 17.2 63.0 110 6 3 -36.5 -20.0 18.7 65.7 -9.8 40 0.2
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
09/18/2019 AT 0900 MDT | 09/18/2019 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +0.9 | CAPE... +7.1 LI... +1.5
CINH... -0.3 K INDEX... +20.9 | CINH... -0.5 K INDEX... +20.5
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.0 -79.6 230 15 8 0.1 0.0 | -62.4 -80.3 225 17 9 0.8 0.4
45000 -60.5 -76.9 235 21 11 5.1 2.8 | -59.8 -75.6 235 23 12 4.9 2.7
40000 -52.5 -62.5 235 23 12 4.1 2.3 | -52.4 -62.3 240 23 12 4.3 2.4
38000 -50.0 -58.0 235 25 13 4.1 2.2 | -50.0 -58.0 240 24 12 4.1 2.3
36000 -47.6 -53.7 230 26 14 4.1 2.2 | -47.5 -53.5 235 25 13 4.1 2.2
34000 -44.0 -47.2 230 25 13 6.9 3.8 | -43.8 -46.8 235 25 13 6.3 3.4
32000 -39.8 -39.6 230 22 11 6.9 3.8 | -40.1 -40.2 235 24 12 6.3 3.5
30000 -35.1 -31.2 230 20 10 8.4 4.6 | -35.5 -31.9 235 22 11 8.3 4.6
29000 -32.6 -26.7 230 19 10 8.4 4.6 | -33.0 -27.4 235 21 11 8.3 4.6
28000 -30.1 -22.2 230 18 9 8.4 4.6 | -30.5 -22.9 235 20 10 8.3 4.6
27000 -27.6 -17.7 230 17 9 8.3 4.5 | -28.0 -18.4 235 19 10 8.3 4.5
26000 -24.5 -12.1 235 17 9 8.3 4.5 | -25.6 -14.1 235 19 10 8.3 4.5
25000 -22.0 -7.6 235 17 9 8.4 4.6 | -23.1 -9.6 235 18 9 8.3 4.5
24000 -20.0 -4.0 230 16 8 6.1 3.3 | -20.7 -5.3 235 18 9 8.1 4.4
23000 -18.2 -0.8 230 16 8 6.1 3.3 | -18.3 -0.9 235 18 9 8.1 4.4
22000 -16.4 2.5 225 16 8 6.1 3.4 | -15.8 3.6 235 17 9 8.2 4.5
21000 -14.6 5.7 225 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -13.4 7.9 235 17 9 6.0 3.3
20000 -12.8 9.0 225 16 8 6.2 3.4 | -11.6 11.1 235 16 8 6.1 3.3
19500 -11.9 10.6 225 15 8 6.2 3.4 | -10.7 12.7 235 16 8 6.1 3.4
19000 -11.0 12.2 225 15 8 6.5 3.6 | -9.8 14.4 230 16 8 5.6 3.1
18500 -10.0 14.0 225 15 8 6.6 3.6 | -9.0 15.8 230 16 8 5.6 3.1
18000 -9.0 15.8 220 15 8 6.6 3.6 | -8.2 17.2 230 16 8 5.7 3.1
17500 -8.1 17.4 220 15 8 6.4 3.5 | -7.4 18.7 225 16 8 5.9 3.2
17000 -7.1 19.2 220 15 8 6.5 3.6 | -6.5 20.3 225 16 8 6.0 3.3
16500 -6.2 20.8 220 15 8 6.5 3.6 | -5.7 21.7 225 16 8 5.2 2.9
16000 -5.3 22.5 220 16 8 6.6 3.6 | -5.0 23.0 220 16 8 5.2 2.9
15500 -4.3 24.3 215 16 8 6.7 3.7 | -4.3 24.3 220 16 8 5.4 3.0
15000 -3.3 26.1 215 16 8 6.9 3.8 | -3.5 25.7 220 15 8 5.6 3.1
14500 -2.3 27.9 215 16 8 7.0 3.9 | -2.8 27.0 215 15 8 6.1 3.3
14000 -1.3 29.7 210 16 8 7.3 4.0 | -1.8 28.8 215 15 8 7.4 4.1
13500 -0.3 31.5 210 16 8 7.3 4.0 | -0.8 30.6 210 15 8 7.4 4.1
13000 0.9 33.6 210 15 8 8.0 4.4 | 0.4 32.7 210 14 7 8.8 4.8
12500 2.0 35.6 210 15 8 7.8 4.3 | 1.7 35.1 210 14 7 8.6 4.7
12000 3.2 37.8 210 14 7 8.7 4.8 | 3.0 37.4 210 13 7 9.3 5.1
11500 4.5 40.1 210 14 7 8.6 4.7 | 4.4 39.9 210 12 6 9.2 5.1
11000 5.9 42.6 210 13 7 8.7 4.7 | 5.8 42.4 210 12 6 9.5 5.2
10500 7.2 45.0 215 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 7.2 45.0 210 11 6 9.8 5.4
10250 7.8 46.0 215 12 6 6.7 3.7 | 7.9 46.2 210 11 6 8.1 4.5
10000 8.3 46.9 215 12 6 7.1 3.9 | 8.5 47.3 210 11 5 8.6 4.7
9750 9.0 48.2 215 11 6 9.7 5.3 | 9.2 48.6 210 10 5 10.5 5.8
9500 9.7 49.5 215 11 6 9.0 5.0 | 10.0 50.0 210 10 5 10.0 5.5
9250 10.4 50.7 215 10 5 9.0 4.9 | 10.7 51.3 210 10 5 10.0 5.5
9000 11.0 51.8 215 10 5 8.0 4.4 | 11.5 52.7 210 9 5 9.5 5.2
8750 11.6 52.9 215 10 5 7.6 4.1 | 12.2 54.0 210 9 5 9.3 5.1
8500 12.2 54.0 210 9 5 7.6 4.2 | 12.9 55.2 210 9 5 9.4 5.2
8250 12.7 54.9 210 9 4 7.8 4.3 | 13.5 56.3 210 9 5 9.0 5.0
8000 13.3 55.9 210 9 4 7.2 3.9 | 14.2 57.6 215 9 4 9.5 5.2
7750 14.2 57.6 200 7 4 5.5 3.0 | 15.8 60.4 215 8 4 10.2 5.6
7500 14.6 58.3 195 7 4 5.5 3.0 | 16.5 61.7 215 8 4 9.2 5.1
7250 15.0 59.0 195 7 4 5.5 3.0 | 17.2 63.0 215 8 4 9.2 5.1
7000 15.4 59.7 190 7 4 5.9 3.2 | 17.9 64.2 215 8 4 10.5 5.8
6750 15.8 60.4 180 6 3 5.9 3.2 | 18.7 65.7 215 8 4 11.2 6.2
6500 16.2 61.2 175 5 3 5.7 3.1 | 19.6 67.3 215 7 4 11.4 6.3
6250 16.6 61.9 170 5 2 5.5 3.0 | 20.4 68.7 215 7 4 10.7 5.8
6000 17.0 62.6 165 4 2 5.9 3.2 | 21.2 70.2 215 7 4 11.5 6.3
5750 17.5 63.5 160 3 2 9.1 5.0 | 22.3 72.1 215 7 3 21.6 11.8
5500 18.4 65.1 145 2 1 15.9 8.7 | 24.7 76.5 215 6 3 45.6 25.0
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
09/18/2019 AT 1500 MDT | 09/18/2019 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +2.4 LI... +1.9 | CAPE... +2.4 LI... +1.2
CINH... -5.3 K INDEX... +22.9 | CINH... -4.9 K INDEX... +23.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.1 -81.6 230 18 9 1.5 0.8 | -62.9 -81.2 230 18 9 1.7 1.0
45000 -59.7 -75.5 240 24 12 4.4 2.4 | -59.7 -75.5 240 23 12 3.6 2.0
40000 -53.1 -63.6 235 25 13 4.5 2.4 | -53.9 -65.0 235 27 14 5.0 2.8
38000 -50.4 -58.7 235 26 13 4.5 2.5 | -50.9 -59.6 235 28 14 5.0 2.8
36000 -47.7 -53.9 240 27 14 4.4 2.4 | -47.9 -54.2 240 29 15 5.1 2.8
34000 -43.6 -46.5 240 26 13 6.9 3.8 | -43.9 -47.0 240 27 14 7.2 4.0
32000 -39.5 -39.1 240 25 13 6.9 3.8 | -39.6 -39.3 240 26 13 7.2 4.0
30000 -35.0 -31.0 235 23 12 7.9 4.3 | -35.0 -31.0 240 24 12 7.7 4.2
29000 -32.6 -26.7 235 22 12 7.9 4.3 | -32.7 -26.9 240 24 12 7.7 4.2
28000 -30.3 -22.5 235 22 11 7.9 4.3 | -30.4 -22.7 240 23 12 7.7 4.2
27000 -27.9 -18.2 235 21 11 7.9 4.4 | -28.0 -18.4 240 22 12 7.9 4.3
26000 -25.5 -13.9 235 20 10 7.9 4.4 | -25.1 -13.2 240 21 11 7.9 4.3
25000 -23.2 -9.8 235 20 10 7.9 4.4 | -22.7 -8.9 240 21 11 7.9 4.4
24000 -20.8 -5.4 235 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -20.3 -4.5 240 20 10 7.8 4.3
23000 -18.3 -0.9 235 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -18.0 -0.4 240 19 10 7.9 4.3
22000 -15.9 3.4 235 18 9 8.3 4.6 | -15.6 3.9 240 19 10 7.9 4.3
21000 -13.6 7.5 235 18 9 7.1 3.9 | -13.4 7.9 240 18 9 7.3 4.0
20000 -11.0 12.2 235 17 9 7.1 3.9 | -11.2 11.8 240 17 9 7.4 4.0
19500 -10.0 14.0 235 16 8 7.3 4.0 | -10.1 13.8 240 17 9 7.5 4.1
19000 -9.0 15.8 235 16 8 5.2 2.8 | -9.1 15.6 240 17 9 6.0 3.3
18500 -8.3 17.1 235 16 8 5.1 2.8 | -8.3 17.1 235 16 8 5.8 3.2
18000 -7.5 18.5 235 15 8 5.0 2.7 | -7.5 18.5 235 16 8 5.8 3.2
17500 -6.9 19.6 230 15 8 4.7 2.6 | -6.6 20.1 235 16 8 5.7 3.1
17000 -6.2 20.8 230 15 8 4.6 2.6 | -5.9 21.4 230 15 8 5.8 3.2
16500 -5.5 22.1 230 14 7 6.3 3.5 | -5.0 23.0 230 15 8 6.8 3.7
16000 -4.6 23.7 225 14 7 6.4 3.5 | -4.0 24.8 225 14 7 7.0 3.8
15500 -3.8 25.2 225 13 7 7.3 4.0 | -3.1 26.4 220 14 7 7.5 4.1
15000 -2.6 27.3 220 13 7 7.8 4.3 | -1.9 28.6 220 14 7 8.0 4.4
14500 -1.5 29.3 220 13 7 8.0 4.4 | -0.8 30.6 220 13 7 8.2 4.5
14000 -0.3 31.5 220 12 6 8.4 4.6 | 0.5 32.9 215 13 7 8.9 4.9
13500 0.9 33.6 215 12 6 8.4 4.6 | 1.8 35.2 215 13 7 8.8 4.8
13000 2.3 36.1 215 12 6 9.4 5.2 | 3.1 37.6 215 12 6 9.2 5.0
12500 3.7 38.7 215 12 6 9.3 5.1 | 4.5 40.1 215 12 6 9.1 5.0
12000 5.1 41.2 215 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 5.9 42.6 215 12 6 9.4 5.2
11500 6.5 43.7 215 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 7.3 45.1 215 11 6 9.5 5.2
11000 7.8 46.0 215 11 6 8.7 4.8 | 8.6 47.5 215 11 6 8.3 4.5
10500 9.1 48.4 215 10 5 9.3 5.1 | 9.9 49.8 215 10 5 8.1 4.5
10250 9.9 49.8 215 10 5 10.6 5.8 | 10.5 50.9 215 10 5 10.3 5.7
10000 10.7 51.3 215 10 5 9.9 5.4 | 11.4 52.5 215 10 5 10.3 5.7
9750 11.3 52.3 215 10 5 9.1 5.0 | 12.1 53.8 215 10 5 8.6 4.7
9500 12.0 53.6 215 10 5 9.2 5.0 | 12.7 54.9 215 10 5 8.9 4.9
9250 12.7 54.9 215 10 5 9.7 5.3 | 13.4 56.1 215 10 5 9.4 5.2
9000 13.5 56.3 220 9 5 9.8 5.4 | 14.1 57.4 220 9 5 9.3 5.1
8750 14.2 57.6 220 9 5 9.3 5.1 | 14.8 58.6 220 9 5 8.6 4.7
8500 14.9 58.8 220 9 5 9.5 5.2 | 15.4 59.7 220 9 4 8.7 4.8
8250 15.6 60.1 220 9 5 8.9 4.9 | 16.8 62.2 225 8 4 9.1 5.0
8000 16.2 61.2 220 8 4 9.5 5.2 | 17.4 63.3 225 8 4 9.1 5.0
7750 17.0 62.6 220 8 4 10.8 5.9 | 18.1 64.6 225 7 4 9.1 5.0
7500 17.8 64.0 220 8 4 10.3 5.7 | 18.8 65.8 225 7 4 9.0 5.0
7250 19.2 66.6 225 8 4 8.9 4.9 | 19.5 67.1 230 7 4 9.2 5.0
7000 19.9 67.8 225 8 4 10.7 5.9 | 20.2 68.4 230 7 4 9.6 5.3
6750 20.7 69.3 225 8 4 11.1 6.1 | 20.9 69.6 230 7 3 10.1 5.6
6500 21.5 70.7 225 8 4 10.6 5.8 | 21.7 71.1 230 6 3 10.4 5.7
6250 22.3 72.1 225 7 4 10.4 5.7 | 22.5 72.5 235 6 3 10.8 5.9
6000 23.1 73.6 225 7 4 9.8 5.4 | 23.2 73.8 235 6 3 8.0 4.4
5750 24.0 75.2 225 7 4 17.5 9.6 | 23.7 74.7 235 6 3 7.5 4.1
5500 26.4 79.5 225 6 3 56.9 31.2 | 25.2 77.4 235 5 2 41.4 22.7
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
042613
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page