595  
UXUS97 KGJT 281306  
SRGGJT  
 
SOARING FORECAST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO  
606 AM MST MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2022  
 
THIS FORECAST IS FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2022:  
 
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 48.2 F/9.0 C IS REACHED...THEN  
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... POOR  
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 0 FT/MIN (0.0 M/S)  
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 7960 FT MSL (3121 FT AGL)  
 
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 46.0 F/8.2 C  
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... NONE  
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE  
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST OPAQUE MIDDLE  
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS  
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 5714 FT MSL (875 FT AGL)  
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY 11/29...... POOR  
 
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE  
 
REMARKS...  
 
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:11:39 / 16:52:42 MST  
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 9 HR 41 MIN 4 SEC (581 MIN 4 SEC)  
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:02:11 MST... 29.48 DEGREES  
 
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 11/28/2022 AT 0500 MST  
 
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 4839 FT MSL (0 FT AGL)  
ADDITIONAL FREEZING LEVEL....... 7305 FT MSL (2466 FT AGL)  
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 16450 FT MSL (11611 FT AGL)  
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 12052 FT MSL (7213 FT AGL)  
LIFTED INDEX.................... +11.0  
K INDEX......................... -1.4  
 
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE  
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
50000 -60.8 -77.4 265 52 27 1.3 0.7 102.8 217.1 53.7 M M  
45000 -58.3 -72.9 265 75 39 2.5 1.3 82.0 179.5 44.9 M M  
40000 -60.4 -76.7 275 94 49 -5.5 -3.0 55.1 131.3 30.7 M M  
38000 -62.7 -80.9 275 113 58 4.9 2.7 41.7 107.0 22.7 M M  
36000 -59.8 -75.6 270 104 53 4.8 2.6 37.3 99.1 20.3 M M  
34000 -56.9 -70.4 275 92 47 6.3 3.4 33.0 91.5 17.8 M M  
32000 -52.1 -61.8 275 87 45 8.1 4.4 31.5 88.7 17.2 M M  
30000 -46.7 -52.1 270 82 42 9.3 5.1 30.9 87.6 17.2 M M  
29000 -44.0 -47.2 270 81 42 9.3 5.1 30.7 87.2 17.3 M M  
28000 -41.4 -42.5 270 80 41 7.9 4.4 30.1 86.3 17.1 M M  
27000 -39.1 -38.4 270 79 41 8.0 4.4 29.5 85.0 16.8 M M  
26000 -36.4 -33.5 270 78 40 8.9 4.9 29.1 84.3 16.7 M M  
25000 -33.7 -28.7 270 77 40 9.1 5.0 28.8 83.9 16.7 M M  
24000 -31.5 -24.7 270 77 40 6.5 3.6 27.9 82.3 16.1 M M  
23000 -29.6 -21.3 270 74 38 6.1 3.4 26.6 79.8 15.2 M M  
22000 -27.8 -18.0 270 69 36 6.1 3.4 25.2 77.3 14.2 M M  
21000 -26.0 -14.8 275 64 33 6.2 3.4 23.9 75.1 13.3 M M  
20000 -23.4 -10.1 275 58 30 7.9 4.3 22.8 73.0 12.6 M M  
19500 -22.1 -7.8 270 57 29 7.8 4.3 22.5 72.4 12.4 M M  
19000 -20.9 -5.6 270 56 29 5.8 3.2 22.1 71.9 12.2 M M  
18500 -20.5 -4.9 265 55 28 3.8 2.1 21.0 69.9 11.3 M M  
18000 -19.6 -3.3 265 54 28 8.2 4.5 20.4 68.7 10.8 M M  
17500 -18.3 -0.9 265 52 27 8.5 4.6 20.2 68.3 10.7 M M  
17000 -17.0 1.4 265 49 25 8.4 4.6 19.9 67.9 10.5 M M  
16500 -15.7 3.7 270 46 24 7.7 4.2 19.7 67.5 10.4 M M  
16000 -14.8 5.4 270 43 22 5.6 3.1 19.1 66.4 9.9 M M  
15500 -14.0 6.8 270 44 23 5.6 3.1 18.4 65.2 9.4 M M  
15000 -13.1 8.4 275 45 23 5.7 3.1 17.7 63.9 8.8 M M  
14500 -12.3 9.9 270 42 22 5.7 3.1 17.1 62.7 8.2 M M  
14000 -11.5 11.3 265 39 20 5.8 3.2 16.4 61.5 7.6 M M  
13500 -10.7 12.7 265 38 20 5.8 3.2 15.7 60.3 7.0 M M  
13000 -9.8 14.4 260 37 19 5.1 2.8 15.1 59.1 6.4 M M  
12500 -9.1 15.6 255 36 18 4.7 2.6 14.2 57.6 5.6 M M  
12000 -8.4 16.9 250 35 18 4.6 2.5 13.4 56.1 4.9 M M  
11500 -7.7 18.1 250 31 16 4.6 2.5 12.5 54.6 4.2 M M  
11000 -7.0 19.4 245 27 14 4.5 2.5 11.7 53.1 3.5 M M  
10500 -6.2 20.8 240 23 12 7.3 4.0 11.1 51.9 2.9 M M  
10250 -5.6 21.9 240 21 11 7.7 4.3 10.9 51.6 2.7 M M  
10000 -5.0 23.0 240 20 10 7.8 4.3 10.7 51.3 2.5 M M  
9750 -4.5 23.9 235 18 9 6.5 3.6 10.6 51.0 2.4 M M  
9500 -4.1 24.6 230 14 7 5.2 2.8 10.2 50.4 2.1 M M  
9250 -3.7 25.3 225 10 5 5.5 3.0 9.9 49.8 1.7 M M  
9000 -3.3 26.1 210 6 3 5.4 3.0 9.6 49.2 1.4 M M  
8750 -2.9 26.8 200 5 3 5.5 3.0 9.2 48.6 1.1 M M  
8500 -2.5 27.5 210 4 2 5.4 3.0 8.9 48.0 0.8 M M  
8250 -2.1 28.2 225 4 2 5.5 3.0 8.5 47.4 0.4 M M  
8000 -1.7 28.9 235 5 2 5.2 2.9 8.2 46.8 0.1 M M  
7750 -1.2 29.8 225 5 3 7.1 3.9 7.9 46.2 -0.2 183 0.9  
7500 -0.6 30.9 200 7 4 8.7 4.8 7.8 46.0 -0.3 157 0.8  
7250 -0.0 32.0 185 10 5 8.3 4.5 7.7 45.8 -0.4 131 0.7  
7000 0.6 33.1 175 13 7 8.3 4.6 7.6 45.6 -0.5 104 0.5  
6750 1.2 34.2 175 15 8 8.5 4.7 7.5 45.5 -0.6 78 0.4  
6500 1.9 35.4 170 17 9 7.5 4.1 7.4 45.3 -0.8 53 0.3  
6250 2.4 36.3 165 19 10 9.5 5.2 7.2 45.0 -0.9 28 0.1  
6000 3.0 37.4 165 15 8 1.0 0.6 7.1 44.7 -1.1 4 0.0  
5750 2.4 36.3 165 13 7 -11.1 -6.1 5.8 42.4 -2.4 13 0.1  
5500 1.8 35.2 175 9 4 -0.5 -0.3 4.5 40.0 -3.7 24 0.1  
5250 2.2 36.0 170 6 3 8.5 4.7 4.2 39.6 -4.1 5 0.0  
5000 2.3 36.1 140 4 2 -11.7 -6.4 3.5 38.4 -4.8 M M  
 
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *  
 
11/28/2022 AT 0800 MST | 11/28/2022 AT 1100 MST  
|  
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.3  
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... +5.6' | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... +7.2'  
|  
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE  
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
50000 -59.4 -74.9 270 60 31 0.5 0.2 | -59.1 -74.4 265 53 27 0.3 0.2  
45000 -58.8 -73.8 265 71 36 0.5 0.3 | -58.7 -73.7 260 71 37 0.3 0.2  
40000 -60.9 -77.6 265 91 47 -1.7 -0.9 | -59.7 -75.5 260 87 45 -0.9 -0.5  
38000 -61.4 -78.5 265 99 51 4.8 2.6 | -60.0 -76.0 260 92 47 3.9 2.2  
36000 -58.6 -73.5 265 97 50 4.2 2.3 | -57.7 -71.9 260 92 47 3.4 1.9  
34000 -56.1 -69.0 265 95 49 4.8 2.6 | -55.6 -68.1 260 92 48 3.5 1.9  
32000 -51.7 -61.1 265 88 45 7.5 4.1 | -51.4 -60.5 260 90 46 7.3 4.0  
30000 -47.2 -53.0 265 81 42 8.0 4.4 | -47.1 -52.8 260 87 45 7.6 4.2  
29000 -44.7 -48.5 265 80 41 8.5 4.6 | -44.6 -48.3 260 86 44 8.2 4.5  
28000 -42.1 -43.8 265 79 41 8.5 4.6 | -42.2 -44.0 255 85 44 8.2 4.5  
27000 -39.6 -39.3 265 78 40 8.5 4.6 | -39.8 -39.6 255 84 43 8.2 4.5  
26000 -37.1 -34.8 265 77 40 7.9 4.3 | -37.4 -35.3 255 83 43 7.3 4.0  
25000 -34.8 -30.6 265 76 39 7.9 4.3 | -35.2 -31.4 255 80 41 7.4 4.1  
24000 -32.4 -26.3 265 74 38 7.9 4.3 | -33.0 -27.4 255 78 40 7.4 4.1  
23000 -30.2 -22.4 265 73 38 6.8 3.7 | -30.9 -23.6 255 76 39 6.7 3.7  
22000 -27.6 -17.7 265 70 36 6.9 3.8 | -28.3 -18.9 255 72 37 6.8 3.7  
21000 -25.6 -14.1 265 68 35 6.9 3.8 | -26.3 -15.3 255 70 36 6.8 3.8  
20000 -23.7 -10.7 265 66 34 6.4 3.5 | -24.3 -11.7 255 68 35 6.6 3.6  
19500 -22.7 -8.9 265 65 34 6.4 3.5 | -23.3 -9.9 255 67 34 6.6 3.6  
19000 -21.8 -7.2 260 64 33 6.4 3.5 | -22.4 -8.3 255 66 34 6.6 3.6  
18500 -20.8 -5.4 260 63 32 6.4 3.5 | -21.4 -6.5 255 65 33 6.6 3.6  
18000 -19.9 -3.8 260 62 32 6.0 3.3 | -20.4 -4.7 255 64 33 6.3 3.5  
17500 -19.0 -2.2 260 61 31 6.0 3.3 | -19.5 -3.1 255 63 32 6.3 3.5  
17000 -18.1 -0.6 260 59 30 6.1 3.3 | -18.6 -1.5 255 61 32 6.4 3.5  
16500 -17.2 1.0 260 57 30 6.1 3.4 | -17.6 0.3 255 60 31 6.7 3.7  
16000 -16.3 2.7 260 56 29 6.2 3.4 | -16.6 2.1 255 58 30 6.7 3.7  
15500 -15.4 4.3 260 54 28 6.7 3.7 | -15.6 3.9 255 56 29 6.3 3.4  
15000 -14.4 6.1 260 52 27 6.7 3.7 | -14.7 5.5 250 54 28 6.3 3.5  
14500 -13.4 7.9 255 50 26 6.9 3.8 | -13.8 7.2 250 51 26 6.3 3.4  
14000 -12.3 9.9 255 47 24 6.9 3.8 | -12.8 9.0 250 49 25 6.2 3.4  
13500 -11.3 11.7 255 45 23 7.0 3.8 | -11.9 10.6 250 46 24 6.5 3.6  
13000 -10.2 13.6 255 43 22 7.0 3.9 | -10.9 12.4 250 44 23 6.6 3.6  
12500 -9.2 15.4 250 40 21 6.7 3.7 | -9.9 14.2 245 41 21 6.6 3.6  
12000 -8.2 17.2 250 38 20 6.5 3.6 | -8.9 16.0 245 39 20 6.5 3.6  
11500 -7.3 18.9 245 36 19 5.8 3.2 | -7.9 17.8 245 37 19 5.9 3.2  
11000 -6.5 20.3 245 34 17 5.5 3.0 | -7.1 19.2 240 34 17 5.3 2.9  
10500 -5.7 21.7 240 32 16 4.1 2.3 | -6.4 20.5 240 31 16 4.3 2.4  
10250 -5.5 22.1 240 30 16 2.8 1.5 | -6.1 21.0 240 30 15 2.9 1.6  
10000 -5.2 22.6 240 29 15 4.8 2.6 | -5.9 21.4 235 29 15 5.3 2.9  
9750 -4.8 23.4 235 27 14 6.1 3.4 | -5.4 22.3 235 27 14 7.0 3.8  
9500 -4.4 24.1 235 26 13 4.6 2.5 | -4.9 23.2 235 25 13 5.5 3.0  
9250 -4.1 24.6 235 24 13 4.2 2.3 | -4.5 23.9 235 24 12 4.9 2.7  
9000 -3.8 25.2 235 23 12 4.4 2.4 | -4.2 24.4 235 22 12 5.7 3.1  
8750 -3.4 25.9 230 21 11 4.4 2.4 | -3.7 25.3 230 21 11 6.5 3.6  
8500 -2.8 27.0 220 18 9 3.9 2.1 | -3.2 26.2 230 20 10 6.3 3.5  
8250 -2.5 27.5 215 17 9 6.1 3.3 | -2.3 27.9 225 16 8 7.1 3.9  
8000 -1.9 28.6 215 16 8 5.9 3.2 | -1.7 28.9 225 16 8 8.0 4.4  
7750 -1.6 29.1 210 15 8 3.8 2.1 | -1.2 29.8 220 14 7 7.1 3.9  
7500 -1.3 29.7 200 14 7 3.8 2.1 | -0.6 30.9 220 12 6 8.1 4.4  
7250 -1.0 30.2 195 14 7 5.7 3.1 | -0.1 31.8 215 11 5 4.9 2.7  
7000 -0.5 31.1 190 14 7 5.3 2.9 | 0.2 32.4 210 8 4 6.6 3.6  
6750 -0.3 31.5 185 13 6 3.0 1.6 | 1.0 33.8 210 7 4 10.9 6.0  
6500 -0.0 32.0 180 11 6 3.6 2.0 | 1.7 35.1 210 7 4 9.9 5.4  
6250 0.2 32.4 170 11 5 2.5 1.4 | 2.4 36.3 210 7 3 9.3 5.1  
6000 0.4 32.7 165 11 6 3.4 1.9 | 3.1 37.6 200 5 3 11.0 6.0  
5750 0.5 32.9 160 8 4 -2.5 -1.4 | 4.2 39.6 200 4 2 16.4 9.0  
5500 -1.2 29.8 145 3 2 -55.8 -30.6 | 5.2 41.4 200 4 2 6.0 3.3  
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M  
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M  
 
11/28/2022 AT 1400 MST | 11/28/2022 AT 1700 MST  
|  
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.3  
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... +14.1' | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... +17.4'  
|  
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE  
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
50000 -59.2 -74.6 255 47 24 0.4 0.2 | -58.3 -72.9 255 48 25 0.9 0.5  
45000 -58.5 -73.3 255 65 34 0.4 0.2 | -56.9 -70.4 255 71 36 0.9 0.5  
40000 -58.8 -73.8 255 81 42 -0.3 -0.2 | -56.9 -70.4 255 85 44 -0.2 -0.1  
38000 -58.8 -73.8 255 87 45 3.3 1.8 | -56.9 -70.4 255 90 46 2.1 1.2  
36000 -56.8 -70.2 250 90 46 3.2 1.8 | -55.5 -67.9 250 90 47 2.3 1.3  
34000 -54.7 -66.5 250 92 47 2.9 1.6 | -54.1 -65.4 245 92 47 2.4 1.3  
32000 -51.1 -60.0 250 92 47 6.4 3.5 | -51.7 -61.1 245 92 47 4.7 2.6  
30000 -47.3 -53.1 250 91 47 6.4 3.5 | -48.9 -56.0 245 92 47 4.7 2.6  
29000 -45.0 -49.0 250 90 46 8.1 4.4 | -47.0 -52.6 245 91 47 7.5 4.1  
28000 -42.6 -44.7 255 90 46 8.0 4.4 | -44.8 -48.6 245 88 46 7.6 4.2  
27000 -40.2 -40.4 255 89 46 8.1 4.4 | -41.9 -43.4 250 86 44 7.6 4.2  
26000 -37.9 -36.2 255 88 45 6.9 3.8 | -39.6 -39.3 250 84 43 7.4 4.1  
25000 -35.8 -32.4 255 85 44 7.0 3.8 | -37.4 -35.3 250 81 41 7.4 4.1  
24000 -33.8 -28.8 255 82 42 7.0 3.8 | -35.2 -31.4 255 78 40 7.4 4.1  
23000 -31.7 -25.1 255 79 41 6.9 3.8 | -33.0 -27.4 255 75 38 6.9 3.8  
22000 -29.6 -21.3 255 76 39 6.9 3.8 | -30.9 -23.6 255 71 37 7.0 3.8  
21000 -27.1 -16.8 255 73 37 6.9 3.8 | -28.8 -19.8 255 68 35 7.0 3.8  
20000 -25.2 -13.4 255 70 36 6.3 3.5 | -26.8 -16.2 255 65 33 6.7 3.7  
19500 -24.2 -11.6 255 68 35 6.3 3.5 | -25.8 -14.4 255 64 33 6.7 3.7  
19000 -23.3 -9.9 255 67 34 6.3 3.5 | -24.8 -12.6 255 62 32 6.8 3.7  
18500 -22.4 -8.3 255 65 34 6.3 3.5 | -23.8 -10.8 255 61 31 6.8 3.7  
18000 -21.4 -6.5 255 64 33 6.4 3.5 | -22.8 -9.0 255 59 30 6.9 3.8  
17500 -20.5 -4.9 255 62 32 6.5 3.5 | -21.7 -7.1 255 57 29 7.2 3.9  
17000 -19.5 -3.1 255 60 31 6.5 3.6 | -20.7 -5.3 255 55 28 7.3 4.0  
16500 -18.5 -1.3 255 58 30 6.7 3.7 | -19.6 -3.3 255 53 27 6.5 3.6  
16000 -17.6 0.3 255 56 29 6.7 3.7 | -18.7 -1.7 255 50 26 6.6 3.6  
15500 -16.6 2.1 255 54 28 6.0 3.3 | -17.7 0.1 255 48 25 6.8 3.7  
15000 -15.7 3.7 255 52 27 6.0 3.3 | -16.7 1.9 255 45 23 6.8 3.7  
14500 -14.9 5.2 250 49 25 5.7 3.1 | -15.7 3.7 250 43 22 6.6 3.6  
14000 -14.0 6.8 250 46 24 5.6 3.1 | -14.7 5.5 250 41 21 6.3 3.5  
13500 -13.2 8.2 245 44 22 6.0 3.3 | -13.8 7.2 245 39 20 6.1 3.4  
13000 -12.3 9.9 245 40 21 6.3 3.5 | -13.0 8.6 245 37 19 5.5 3.0  
12500 -11.3 11.7 240 37 19 6.8 3.7 | -12.1 10.2 240 36 18 5.8 3.2  
12000 -10.2 13.6 240 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -11.2 11.8 240 34 18 7.1 3.9  
11500 -9.1 15.6 235 32 17 7.6 4.2 | -10.1 13.8 235 32 17 7.0 3.8  
11000 -7.9 17.8 230 30 16 7.8 4.3 | -9.1 15.6 235 31 16 7.1 3.9  
10500 -6.8 19.8 230 28 15 7.4 4.1 | -8.1 17.4 235 31 16 7.0 3.9  
10250 -6.2 20.8 225 27 14 6.8 3.7 | -7.5 18.5 230 31 16 6.5 3.6  
10000 -5.7 21.7 225 26 14 8.2 4.5 | -7.0 19.4 230 31 16 7.8 4.3  
9750 -5.0 23.0 225 26 13 9.3 5.1 | -6.4 20.5 230 30 16 9.3 5.1  
9500 -4.4 24.1 225 25 13 8.5 4.6 | -5.7 21.7 230 29 15 8.3 4.6  
9250 -3.8 25.2 225 24 12 8.0 4.4 | -5.1 22.8 230 29 15 7.3 4.0  
9000 -3.2 26.2 225 23 12 8.1 4.5 | -3.9 25.0 230 28 14 9.5 5.2  
8750 -2.6 27.3 225 22 11 8.1 4.4 | -3.2 26.2 230 26 13 8.3 4.5  
8500 -2.0 28.4 225 21 11 7.7 4.2 | -2.7 27.1 230 25 13 6.6 3.6  
8250 -1.4 29.5 225 20 10 7.5 4.1 | -2.2 28.0 230 25 13 7.3 4.0  
8000 -0.3 31.5 230 17 9 7.5 4.1 | -1.6 29.1 230 23 12 8.4 4.6  
7750 0.3 32.5 230 16 8 7.2 3.9 | -1.0 30.2 230 21 11 8.1 4.5  
7500 0.8 33.4 230 15 7 7.9 4.4 | -0.4 31.3 235 19 10 7.0 3.8  
7250 1.4 34.5 235 13 7 5.1 2.8 | 0.1 32.2 235 18 9 8.0 4.4  
7000 1.7 35.1 240 11 6 6.0 3.3 | 0.8 33.4 235 14 7 7.8 4.3  
6750 2.3 36.1 245 10 5 9.3 5.1 | 1.3 34.3 235 12 6 7.2 4.0  
6500 3.0 37.4 245 9 5 9.1 5.0 | 1.9 35.4 235 10 5 6.6 3.6  
6250 3.6 38.5 245 8 4 6.6 3.6 | 2.4 36.3 235 8 4 9.6 5.3  
6000 4.0 39.2 270 6 3 6.2 3.4 | 3.2 37.8 250 7 4 6.3 3.5  
5750 4.7 40.5 275 5 3 14.0 7.7 | 3.1 37.6 255 4 2 -8.2 -4.5  
5500 5.4 41.7 285 4 2 -2.2 -1.2 | 3.0 37.4 320 1 0 19.9 10.9  
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M  
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M  
________________________________________________________________________________  
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT  
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT  
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.  
 
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR  
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND  
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT  
 
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC  
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC  
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)  
 
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF  
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS  
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR  
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.  
 
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT  
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD  
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS  
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN  
THE SOARING FORECAST.  
 
DEFINITIONS:  
 
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE  
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE  
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER  
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF  
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR  
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.  
 
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY  
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON  
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE  
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS  
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,  
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)  
 
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE  
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,  
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT  
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE  
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.  
 
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE  
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A  
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.  
 
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.  
 
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE  
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND  
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN  
WAVES.  
 
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE  
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT  
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE  
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER  
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING  
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158  
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:  
 
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS  
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS  
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS  
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS  
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING  
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS  
 
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE  
INVERSIONS.  
 
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE  
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.  
 
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A  
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF  
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED  
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME  
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000  
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH  
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.  
 
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS  
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL  
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.  
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX  
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.  
 
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE  
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.  
 
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT  
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM  
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES  
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET  
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS  
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF  
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER  
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.  
 
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)  
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT  
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST  
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.  
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT  
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS  
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.  
 
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:  
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)  
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE  
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)  
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT  
 
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)  
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN  
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.  
 
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED  
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.  
 
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE  
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT  
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES  
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.  
 
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE  
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH  
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER  
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:  
 
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING  
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT  
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD  
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR  
< 200 FPM POOR  
 
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,  
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:  
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER  
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS  
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
 
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO  
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.  
 
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000  
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.  
 
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH  
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE  
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO  
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC  
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE  
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH  
MOVEMENTS.  
 
042613  
 
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