639
UXUS97 KGJT 111307
SRGGJT
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION, COLORADO
607 AM MST SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 54.5 F/12.5 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... POOR
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 25 FT/MIN (0.1 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 7247 FT MSL (1637 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 41.0 F/5.5 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... NONE
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ 1400 MST
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... BROKEN/OVERCAST THIN MIDDLE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 6221 FT MSL (611 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 01/12....... POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. NOT AVAILABLE
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:32:51 / 17:11:28 MST
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 9 HR 38 MIN 37 SEC (578 MIN 37 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:22:10 MST... 28.95 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION TAKEN ON 01/11/2026 AT 0500 MST
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 6072 FT MSL (462 FT AGL)
ADDITIONAL FREEZING LEVELS...... 6711 FT MSL (1101 FT AGL)
6916 FT MSL (1306 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 19816 FT MSL (14206 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 12426 FT MSL (6816 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +14.5
K INDEX......................... -1.5
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.9 -79.4 330 28 15 0.4 0.2 M M M M M
45000 -61.4 -78.5 330 27 14 -0.9 -0.5 M M M M M
40000 -63.2 -81.8 355 21 11 -1.3 -0.7 M M M M M
38000 -61.9 -79.4 015 23 12 4.6 2.5 M M M M M
36000 -59.1 -74.4 035 30 16 4.6 2.5 M M M M M
34000 -55.7 -68.3 040 36 18 8.5 4.7 M M M M M
32000 -49.9 -57.8 040 33 17 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
30000 -44.7 -48.5 035 31 16 8.9 4.9 29.8 85.6 18.7 M M
29000 -42.0 -43.6 035 29 15 8.9 4.9 29.4 84.9 18.6 M M
28000 -39.4 -38.9 035 28 14 8.9 4.9 29.1 84.4 18.7 M M
27000 -36.8 -34.2 035 26 13 8.6 4.7 28.8 83.8 18.6 M M
26000 -34.2 -29.6 030 24 12 8.6 4.7 28.3 82.9 18.5 M M
25000 -31.6 -24.9 030 22 11 8.6 4.7 27.9 82.2 18.4 M M
24000 -29.0 -20.2 025 22 11 8.6 4.7 27.5 81.6 18.3 M M
23000 -26.4 -15.5 020 24 12 8.6 4.7 27.0 80.7 18.1 M M
22000 -23.9 -11.0 020 26 13 8.6 4.7 26.7 80.0 18.0 M M
21000 -21.5 -6.7 015 26 14 7.3 4.0 26.1 78.9 17.7 M M
20000 -19.3 -2.7 015 25 13 7.3 4.0 25.1 77.3 17.1 M M
19500 -18.2 -0.8 015 24 12 7.3 4.0 24.7 76.5 16.8 M M
19000 -16.6 2.1 010 23 12 6.7 3.7 24.1 75.4 16.4 M M
18500 -15.7 3.7 010 22 11 6.5 3.6 23.5 74.4 16.0 M M
18000 -14.7 5.5 005 21 11 6.5 3.6 23.0 73.4 15.6 M M
17500 -13.8 7.2 360 20 10 6.6 3.6 22.4 72.4 15.2 M M
17000 -12.8 9.0 360 20 10 6.6 3.6 21.9 71.4 14.8 M M
16500 -11.8 10.8 355 20 10 7.1 3.9 21.4 70.5 14.4 M M
16000 -10.7 12.7 355 19 10 7.1 3.9 21.0 69.7 14.1 M M
15500 -9.7 14.5 355 19 10 6.8 3.7 20.5 68.9 13.8 M M
15000 -8.7 16.3 350 18 9 6.5 3.6 20.0 67.9 13.3 M M
14500 -7.7 18.1 350 17 9 6.5 3.5 19.4 67.0 12.9 M M
14000 -6.8 19.8 350 16 8 6.3 3.5 18.9 66.0 12.5 M M
13500 -5.8 21.6 345 14 7 6.3 3.5 18.3 65.0 12.0 M M
13000 -4.9 23.2 345 13 7 6.4 3.5 17.8 64.0 11.6 M M
12500 -4.0 24.8 345 12 6 6.3 3.5 17.2 63.0 11.1 M M
12000 -3.1 26.4 340 10 5 5.8 3.2 16.6 61.9 10.6 M M
11500 -2.2 28.0 340 9 5 5.8 3.2 16.0 60.8 10.1 M M
11000 -1.4 29.5 340 8 4 4.9 2.7 15.3 59.5 9.5 M M
10500 -0.7 30.7 340 6 3 4.6 2.6 14.5 58.2 8.8 M M
10250 -0.4 31.3 340 6 3 3.7 2.0 14.1 57.4 8.4 M M
10000 -0.1 31.8 340 5 3 3.3 1.8 13.6 56.5 7.9 M M
9750 0.2 32.4 335 5 2 3.8 2.1 13.1 55.6 7.5 M M
9500 0.4 32.7 335 4 2 2.4 1.3 12.6 54.7 7.0 M M
9250 0.5 32.9 335 4 2 0.2 0.1 11.9 53.5 6.4 M M
9000 0.5 32.9 335 3 2 0.0 0.0 11.2 52.1 5.7 M M
8750 0.5 32.9 335 2 1 0.1 0.1 10.4 50.8 5.0 M M
8500 0.5 32.9 330 2 1 -0.5 -0.3 9.7 49.4 4.3 M M
8250 0.4 32.7 345 1 0 -0.8 -0.4 8.9 47.9 3.5 M M
8000 0.3 32.5 000 0 0 -1.5 -0.8 8.0 46.5 2.7 M M
7750 0.2 32.4 110 1 0 -1.6 -0.9 7.1 44.9 1.8 M M
7500 0.1 32.2 120 1 1 -0.2 -0.1 6.3 43.4 1.0 M M
7250 0.1 32.2 120 2 1 0.4 0.2 5.6 42.1 0.2 M M
7000 0.1 32.2 120 2 1 -1.2 -0.6 4.9 40.7 -0.5 220 1.1
6750 -0.0 32.0 120 2 1 -0.1 -0.1 4.0 39.2 -1.4 217 1.1
6500 0.0 32.0 120 3 1 1.0 0.6 3.3 38.0 -2.0 207 1.1
6250 0.1 32.2 120 3 1 3.7 2.0 2.7 36.9 -2.7 197 1.0
6000 0.2 32.4 115 3 2 -8.0 -4.4 2.1 35.7 -3.3 187 1.0
5750 -1.5 29.3 105 3 2 -35.3 -19.4 -0.4 31.4 -5.8 231 1.2
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
01/11/2026 AT 0800 MST | 01/11/2026 AT 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.3
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... -1.2 | CINH... -0.3 K INDEX... +0.5
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.5 -80.5 285 36 19 1.6 0.9 | -62.8 -81.0 285 36 18 1.1 0.6
45000 -60.2 -76.4 290 34 18 -1.9 -1.0 | -61.2 -78.2 285 35 18 -1.6 -0.9
40000 -64.7 -84.5 300 28 15 -3.1 -1.7 | -65.1 -85.2 285 32 17 -2.7 -1.5
38000 -62.3 -80.1 295 26 13 8.3 4.5 | -62.7 -80.9 280 31 16 8.2 4.5
36000 -56.8 -70.2 290 23 12 8.2 4.5 | -57.2 -71.0 270 29 15 8.2 4.5
34000 -51.9 -61.4 280 23 12 7.9 4.3 | -52.3 -62.1 270 28 14 8.1 4.4
32000 -47.2 -53.0 280 25 13 7.9 4.3 | -47.5 -53.5 275 26 14 8.1 4.4
30000 -42.4 -44.3 275 26 14 8.3 4.6 | -42.6 -44.7 285 24 13 8.2 4.5
29000 -39.9 -39.8 280 27 14 8.3 4.6 | -40.2 -40.4 290 23 12 8.2 4.5
28000 -37.4 -35.3 280 27 14 8.3 4.6 | -37.7 -35.9 295 22 11 8.2 4.5
27000 -35.1 -31.2 280 26 14 6.6 3.6 | -35.4 -31.7 305 21 11 6.6 3.6
26000 -33.1 -27.6 290 25 13 6.7 3.7 | -33.4 -28.1 305 21 11 6.7 3.7
25000 -31.1 -24.0 295 23 12 6.7 3.7 | -31.5 -24.7 310 20 10 6.7 3.7
24000 -29.1 -20.4 305 22 11 6.7 3.7 | -29.5 -21.1 315 20 10 6.4 3.5
23000 -27.1 -16.8 305 20 11 6.7 3.7 | -27.6 -17.7 320 18 10 6.4 3.5
22000 -24.6 -12.3 310 18 10 6.7 3.7 | -25.2 -13.4 320 17 9 6.3 3.5
21000 -22.6 -8.7 315 17 9 6.7 3.7 | -23.1 -9.6 325 16 8 7.1 3.9
20000 -20.6 -5.1 320 15 8 6.7 3.7 | -21.0 -5.8 330 14 7 7.1 3.9
19500 -19.6 -3.3 320 15 8 6.7 3.7 | -20.0 -4.0 330 13 7 7.1 3.9
19000 -18.6 -1.5 325 14 7 7.1 3.9 | -18.9 -2.0 335 12 6 7.2 3.9
18500 -17.5 0.5 330 13 7 7.3 4.0 | -17.8 -0.0 335 11 6 7.2 3.9
18000 -16.4 2.5 330 12 6 7.3 4.0 | -16.8 1.8 340 10 5 7.2 4.0
17500 -15.3 4.5 335 12 6 7.4 4.0 | -15.7 3.7 345 10 5 7.5 4.1
17000 -14.2 6.4 345 11 6 7.4 4.0 | -14.6 5.7 345 9 5 7.4 4.1
16500 -13.1 8.4 350 11 6 7.5 4.1 | -13.4 7.9 350 8 4 7.7 4.2
16000 -12.0 10.4 360 11 5 7.6 4.1 | -12.3 9.9 355 8 4 7.7 4.2
15500 -10.9 12.4 005 11 6 7.4 4.1 | -11.1 12.0 005 7 4 7.4 4.1
15000 -9.8 14.4 015 11 6 7.2 4.0 | -10.1 13.8 010 7 3 7.2 4.0
14500 -8.7 16.3 020 11 6 7.1 3.9 | -9.0 15.8 020 6 3 7.2 3.9
14000 -7.7 18.1 025 11 6 6.9 3.8 | -8.7 16.3 030 6 3 7.1 3.9
13500 -6.7 19.9 030 11 6 6.8 3.7 | -6.9 19.6 040 5 3 7.0 3.8
13000 -5.8 21.6 035 11 6 6.1 3.3 | -5.9 21.4 045 5 3 6.5 3.6
12500 -4.8 23.4 040 11 6 6.0 3.3 | -4.9 23.2 050 5 3 6.5 3.5
12000 -4.0 24.8 045 11 6 5.2 2.9 | -4.0 24.8 060 5 3 5.8 3.2
11500 -3.2 26.2 050 11 6 5.2 2.8 | -3.2 26.2 065 5 3 5.7 3.1
11000 -2.6 27.3 050 11 6 3.9 2.2 | -2.4 27.7 075 5 3 4.8 2.6
10500 -2.0 28.4 055 11 5 3.7 2.0 | -1.6 29.1 080 5 3 4.5 2.4
10250 -1.7 28.9 055 10 5 2.6 1.4 | -1.4 29.5 080 5 3 3.4 1.9
10000 -1.5 29.3 055 11 5 2.2 1.2 | -1.1 30.0 080 5 3 3.0 1.6
9750 -1.4 29.5 060 10 5 2.6 1.4 | -0.9 30.4 085 5 2 2.7 1.5
9500 -1.2 29.8 060 9 5 1.9 1.1 | -0.7 30.7 090 5 2 2.2 1.2
9250 -1.1 30.0 060 9 5 0.7 0.4 | -0.6 30.9 090 4 2 1.8 1.0
9000 -1.0 30.2 065 9 5 1.3 0.7 | -0.4 31.3 095 4 2 2.5 1.4
8750 -1.0 30.2 065 9 5 -0.9 -0.5 | -0.3 31.5 100 4 2 -1.5 -0.8
8500 -1.1 30.0 070 8 4 -1.6 -0.9 | -0.6 30.9 105 4 2 -2.0 -1.1
8250 -1.2 29.8 075 7 4 0.2 0.1 | -0.5 31.1 110 4 2 1.0 0.5
8000 -1.2 29.8 080 7 4 -2.9 -1.6 | -0.5 31.1 120 3 2 -1.3 -0.7
7750 -1.6 29.1 080 6 3 -3.3 -1.8 | -0.7 30.7 120 3 2 -1.8 -1.0
7500 -1.7 28.9 085 6 3 -0.8 -0.4 | -0.7 30.7 125 3 2 0.4 0.2
7250 -1.7 28.9 090 6 3 -0.5 -0.3 | -0.7 30.7 125 3 1 -1.1 -0.6
7000 -1.7 28.9 100 5 3 0.8 0.5 | -0.8 30.6 130 3 1 0.3 0.2
6750 -1.7 28.9 105 5 3 -0.5 -0.3 | -0.6 30.9 135 2 1 2.8 1.6
6500 -1.8 28.8 110 5 2 -1.0 -0.6 | -0.4 31.3 135 2 1 3.5 1.9
6250 -1.9 28.6 110 4 2 -1.8 -1.0 | -0.2 31.6 135 2 1 0.6 0.3
6000 -2.2 28.0 115 5 3 -9.5 -5.2 | -0.2 31.6 135 2 1 4.7 2.6
5750 -3.4 25.9 115 4 2 -20.3 -11.2 | 0.7 33.3 135 2 1 19.7 10.8
5500 -4.6 23.7 115 3 2 -5.6 -3.1 | 1.7 35.1 135 1 1 -6.2 -3.4
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
01/11/2026 AT 1400 MST | 01/11/2026 AT 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.9
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +1.5 | CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... +2.4
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.5 -78.7 285 34 17 1.3 0.7 | -61.5 -78.7 290 33 17 1.2 0.7
45000 -59.7 -75.5 290 35 18 -2.0 -1.1 | -59.7 -75.5 300 34 18 -1.7 -0.9
40000 -65.1 -85.2 280 39 20 -3.6 -2.0 | -63.0 -81.4 285 39 20 -2.3 -1.2
38000 -63.2 -81.8 275 39 20 8.0 4.4 | -61.5 -78.7 280 40 21 5.6 3.1
36000 -57.8 -72.0 275 38 20 8.0 4.4 | -58.2 -72.8 280 41 21 5.6 3.1
34000 -53.0 -63.4 275 36 18 8.1 4.5 | -54.3 -65.7 280 39 20 8.0 4.4
32000 -48.1 -54.6 280 30 16 8.1 4.5 | -49.5 -57.1 285 31 16 8.1 4.4
30000 -43.3 -45.9 285 26 13 7.8 4.3 | -44.6 -48.3 295 24 12 8.0 4.4
29000 -41.0 -41.8 290 24 12 7.8 4.3 | -42.2 -44.0 300 23 12 8.0 4.4
28000 -38.7 -37.7 300 23 12 7.8 4.3 | -39.8 -39.6 310 22 11 8.0 4.4
27000 -36.5 -33.7 305 21 11 6.9 3.8 | -36.9 -34.4 315 20 10 7.5 4.1
26000 -34.4 -29.9 310 19 10 6.9 3.8 | -34.7 -30.5 315 17 9 7.5 4.1
25000 -32.3 -26.1 315 16 8 7.0 3.8 | -32.4 -26.3 315 15 8 7.5 4.1
24000 -30.3 -22.5 320 14 7 6.6 3.6 | -30.2 -22.4 315 13 7 6.8 3.7
23000 -28.3 -18.9 325 14 7 6.6 3.6 | -28.2 -18.8 320 12 6 6.9 3.8
22000 -25.8 -14.4 330 14 7 6.6 3.6 | -26.1 -15.0 325 11 6 6.9 3.8
21000 -23.7 -10.7 335 13 7 7.6 4.2 | -23.9 -11.0 330 11 5 7.6 4.2
20000 -21.4 -6.5 335 12 6 7.7 4.2 | -21.6 -6.9 335 11 6 7.7 4.2
19500 -20.2 -4.4 335 12 6 7.6 4.2 | -20.5 -4.9 335 11 6 7.7 4.2
19000 -19.1 -2.4 335 11 6 7.5 4.1 | -19.3 -2.7 335 11 6 7.6 4.2
18500 -18.0 -0.4 335 11 5 7.3 4.0 | -18.2 -0.8 335 11 6 7.6 4.1
18000 -16.9 1.6 335 10 5 7.3 4.0 | -17.1 1.2 335 11 6 7.6 4.2
17500 -15.8 3.6 335 9 5 7.4 4.1 | -16.0 3.2 335 11 6 7.5 4.1
17000 -14.7 5.5 340 8 4 7.4 4.1 | -14.8 5.4 335 11 6 7.5 4.1
16500 -13.6 7.5 340 7 4 7.6 4.2 | -13.7 7.3 335 11 5 7.6 4.1
16000 -12.4 9.7 340 7 3 7.7 4.2 | -12.6 9.3 335 10 5 7.6 4.2
15500 -11.3 11.7 345 6 3 7.5 4.1 | -11.5 11.3 340 10 5 7.6 4.2
15000 -10.2 13.6 345 5 3 7.4 4.1 | -10.3 13.5 340 9 5 7.6 4.2
14500 -9.1 15.6 350 4 2 7.3 4.0 | -9.2 15.4 340 8 4 7.5 4.1
14000 -8.1 17.4 355 3 2 7.0 3.9 | -8.1 17.4 345 7 4 7.2 4.0
13500 -7.0 19.4 360 2 1 7.0 3.8 | -7.0 19.4 345 7 3 7.3 4.0
13000 -6.0 21.2 005 2 1 6.6 3.6 | -6.0 21.2 350 6 3 6.7 3.6
12500 -5.0 23.0 010 1 1 6.6 3.6 | -5.0 23.0 350 5 3 6.7 3.7
12000 -4.1 24.6 030 1 1 5.7 3.1 | -4.0 24.8 350 4 2 6.0 3.3
11500 -3.3 26.1 060 1 0 5.7 3.1 | -3.1 26.4 355 4 2 6.1 3.3
11000 -2.5 27.5 095 1 0 5.0 2.8 | -2.3 27.9 360 3 2 4.9 2.7
10500 -1.7 28.9 130 1 0 4.8 2.6 | -1.6 29.1 005 2 1 4.9 2.7
10250 -1.4 29.5 140 1 1 3.9 2.1 | -1.2 29.8 010 2 1 4.2 2.3
10000 -1.1 30.0 150 1 1 3.2 1.8 | -0.9 30.4 010 2 1 3.6 2.0
9750 -0.9 30.4 165 1 1 2.5 1.4 | -0.7 30.7 010 1 1 3.1 1.7
9500 -0.7 30.7 170 2 1 2.8 1.5 | -0.5 31.1 020 1 0 3.3 1.8
9250 -0.5 31.1 175 2 1 3.5 1.9 | 0.1 32.2 020 1 0 4.4 2.4
9000 -0.2 31.6 175 2 1 3.7 2.0 | 0.3 32.5 000 0 0 0.2 0.1
8750 -0.0 32.0 180 2 1 0.0 0.0 | 0.2 32.4 060 1 0 0.7 0.4
8500 -0.1 31.8 175 2 1 0.2 0.1 | 0.5 32.9 070 1 0 4.1 2.2
8250 0.2 32.4 175 2 1 2.9 1.6 | 0.8 33.4 080 1 0 4.4 2.4
8000 0.4 32.7 175 2 1 0.3 0.2 | 1.0 33.8 085 1 0 -0.4 -0.2
7750 0.3 32.5 170 1 1 -0.0 -0.0 | 0.8 33.4 070 1 1 -1.0 -0.5
7500 0.5 32.9 165 1 1 2.9 1.6 | 1.0 33.8 070 1 1 3.3 1.8
7250 0.6 33.1 155 1 0 1.5 0.8 | 1.2 34.2 075 1 1 3.1 1.7
7000 0.8 33.4 000 0 0 3.1 1.7 | 1.5 34.7 080 1 1 5.2 2.9
6750 1.1 34.0 000 0 0 5.3 2.9 | 1.9 35.4 085 1 1 4.0 2.2
6500 1.5 34.7 000 0 0 5.0 2.7 | 2.0 35.6 085 1 1 1.6 0.9
6250 1.8 35.2 000 0 0 5.8 3.2 | 2.2 36.0 080 1 0 5.9 3.2
6000 2.4 36.3 000 0 0 10.4 5.7 | 2.7 36.9 000 0 0 3.3 1.8
5750 3.4 38.1 285 1 0 16.0 8.8 | 2.4 36.3 000 0 0 -12.4 -6.8
5500 4.4 39.9 275 1 0 7.8 4.3 | 2.0 35.6 200 1 0 16.1 8.8
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN AT WALKER FIELD IN GRAND
JUNCTION, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 07 MIN 00.001 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 108 DEG 31 MIN 59.998 SEC
ELEVATION: 4839 FEET (1475 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
COLORADO. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO DATA WHICH APPEAR
TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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