826
FXUS61 KAKQ 052345
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 735 EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EVENING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MID- ATLANTIC. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
APPEARED ON RADAR (MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NE NC) THANKS
TO HEIGHT RISES FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE OFFSHORE AND NO
BOUNDARIES/WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM NEARBY. CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET (GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING), THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY.
FLASH FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT VERY LOCALIZED ISSUES IF A SHOWER/STORM
HITS ONE OF THE LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN MORE
HEIGHT RISES AS THE RIDGE OFFSHORE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING (MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT). WITH LOWER STORM
CHANCES, TEMPS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY
WITH UPPER 90S- LOW 100S HEAT INDICES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OFFSHORE RETREATS A BIT
TO THE SE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO OUR N/NW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS OR STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT POPS GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 30%.
A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES (STILL ONLY 20-30%) SHIFTING TO SE VA/NE NC. SEASONABLE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY
LOCALLY LOWER CIGS DUE TO ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC AND THE PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED CU SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LEFT OUT THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE TAFS GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION REACHES A TERMINAL. HOWEVER, CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VICINITY OF
ORF. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS S VA/NE NC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS AT ORF/ECG. THAT BEING SAID, MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MVFR
CIGS INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT CIGS VFR
FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
THU WITH SCT CU (5000-8000 FT CIGS) CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THU AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN CONVECTION REACHING ANY TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ONLY ISOLATED
AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON FRI/SAT.
MARINE
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEEK, OUTSIDE OF LOCAL THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
MEANWHILE, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND IS
BUILDING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE S TO
SW, AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
NEARSHORE SEAS ARE AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE AVERAGING 1 TO 2 FEET. BERMUDA HIGH WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER SETUP OVER THE WATERS. S TO SW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH S TO SE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/RHR/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/NB
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