161
FXUS61 KAKQ 210643
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING COLDER, DRIER AIR AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING THE REGION DRY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 730 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS PREVAIL
THIS EVENING, LINGERING INTO EARLY MORNING TO THE E.
- STRONG, GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP POST-FRONTAL, WITH GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT).
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM NEAR LKU TO DAN, WITH STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS NW AND SE PORTIONS OF THE FA, WITH THE
COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL VA. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE
PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER N-NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT REMAINS VERY
WARM FOR A LATE NOVEMBER EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURE AS OF 8 PM
STILL MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IS FOR THE WIND
SHIFT TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 9-10PM W OF I-95, PUSHING TO THE COAST
BETWEEN 11PM AND 1 AM. IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH 35-45 KT ACROSS DELMARVA. WITH DECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED FOR THE AREA. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE WIND GUSTS KNOCKING DOWN TREES AND
BRANCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND
LAST BETWEEN 1 TO 3 HOURS. ONCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES
THROUGH THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIE DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN BREEZY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE WHEN THEY DIMINISH
FURTHER.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THESE CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40F W
OF I-95, WITH 40-45F TO THE E.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS AVERAGE
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH (HIGHEST COASTAL AREAS).
- BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS THE AREA TO
START DRYING OUT THURSDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSING ALONG THE
TROUGH ALLOWING MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. THE
FIRST OF THESE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
GUSTY WINDS, SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
EASTERN SHORE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S THURSDAY. WINDS DO DECOUPLE A BIT
INLAND LATER THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE
CONTRAST BETWEEN INLAND AREAS AND THE COAST. LOOK FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. THE SECOND SHOT COMES FRIDAY AND COULD POTENTIALLY BE
COOLER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. THE LATEST MODELS DEPICT
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ, WITH A
RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT ON THE
EASTERN SHORE, WITH MUCH LOWER POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR JUST SPRINKLES
MORE FAVORED ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY COOL DOWN IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LATEST 20/12Z ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALLOWING A RIDGE TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
A LITTLE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S BY MIDWEEK. EARLY MORNING LOWS WARM BACK INTO THE
40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE
NW. WILL NOTE, BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE ENSEMBLES DO DISAGREE
WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THEY DO
AGREE ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM AND POPS REMAIN TN THE FORECAST AND STAY
BETWEEN 15-25%.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND VARIABLE
CIGS TO AREA TERMINALS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO VFR
INLAND, WITH MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM ECG
TO SBY THROUGH 07-09Z/2-4 AM EST BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. NW
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT THROUGH AROUND AND JUST AFTER
SUNRISE, THEN INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE W AT 15-18 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR,
AVERAGING 6-8 KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY W-NW WINDS CONTINUE FRI-SAT, WITH LESS WIND BY
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N/NE SECTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTN/FRI
NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO
STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT DRAGGED
ACROSS OHIO TO GEORGIA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE AROUND 5 KT BECOMING
S 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT CROSSING COASTAL WATERS 10PM TO 1AM
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STRONG IN GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY BECOME NW
30-35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH,
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS ALL WATERS BEGINNING AT 10PM
TONIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND
THE INITIAL SURGE. A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY, BUT THEN WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO AT LEAST SCA
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS W AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY, BUT A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT TO W AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
IN THE BAY AND 40 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS HIGH
PROBABILITY (>80%) FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34 KT FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IN GALE
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY FOR THIS SURGE. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 1-2 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT (LOCALLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE).
WAVES AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY TO 2-4 FT IN THE BAY AND 2-4
FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A RAMP UP ALONG WITH THE WINDS FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED WITH WAVES 3-5 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>634-638-
650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...HET/LKB/JKP
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...KMC
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