315  
FXUS61 KAKQ 230200  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
900 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
STATES INTO SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE  
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS  
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT  
WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 900 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
LATEST MSAS HAS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SERN STATES  
WITH A SFC TROF EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE MTS. MEANWHILE, 1032 MB  
SFC HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN. A STEADY STEAM OF MOISTURE  
IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (AMOUNTS AOB .10 INCHES) CONTS  
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR TO THE  
NORTH KEEPING THE NRN NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE DRY. TEMPS 40-45.  
 
HIGH RES DATA BASICALLY KEEPS THE SAME CONDITIONS GOING THRU 06Z  
THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT THE MAIN BATCH OF PCPN ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
I64. THUS, ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT ACCORDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SW, QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO CHC NORTH  
OF I64. STAYING DRY ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. JUST ENOUGH DRY  
AIR PROGGED TO COME IN FROM THE NORTH TO ALLOW DEW POINT TEMPS  
TO FALL A BIT FROM CURRENT READINGS, THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD  
END UP IN THE UPR 30S-LWR 40S, EXCEPT MID 30S LWR MD ERN SHORE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
SAT WILL FEATURE COMPETING INFLUENCES ON LOCAL TEMPERATURES.  
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFF THE  
NEW ENGLAND COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. AN IN-  
SITU CAD WEDGE AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,  
AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PCPN HELP TO REINFORCE THE NEAR SFC  
STABLE LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD  
TWD THE AREA FM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP  
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT, WITH HIGHS  
RANGING FM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER  
50S ACROSS THE EXTRM SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD PCPN (POSSIBLY AT  
LEAST MODERATE RAIN) IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN THRU  
SAT NIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE REGION.  
WINDS BECOME SE THEN S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STEADY  
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES. LOWS  
SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER 30S EXTRM NW, TO AROUND 50  
EXTRM SE.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUN MORNING, THEN PUSH  
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVENING.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY SUN AFTN INTO EARLY  
SUN EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN  
END AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, WITH A CLEARING SKY  
EXPECTED FM WEST TO EAST. STORM TOTAL PRECIP WILL AVERAGE  
BETWEEN 0.75-1 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST/WEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE 1.25-1.50" IS  
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT WET WEATHER, AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TO  
FALL THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME RIVER FLOODING  
ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE-FEB SUN ANGLE  
WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN, WITH UPPER 60S  
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DECREASING  
DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR SUN  
NIGHT AND MON, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE NW. CLEAR AND  
CHILLY SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
SUNNY ON MON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU THURS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE  
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. MODELS SHOW A COASTAL TROF  
DVLPNG WED. GFS WETTER THAN ECMWF SO KEPT SLGHT CHC SHWRS ALONG  
THE COAST WED. MODELS DIFFER FRI WITH THE GFS QUICKLY RETURNING  
MOISTURE ON AN INCRG SSW FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF PCPN  
UNTIL FRI NIGHT WITH A LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE COAST. WILL  
CARRY CHC RAIN FRI, INCREASING POPS A BIT FRI NIGHT.  
 
HIGHS EACH DAY MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 30S  
TO NEAR 40 SE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES OF MOISTURE OVER THE  
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  
NEW ENGLAND HAS PUSHED A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO SC/GA THIS  
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING  
AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF  
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED  
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SC/GA WILL  
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY  
15-18Z SAT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING HEAVIER  
RAIN, REDUCING VISIBILITY. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE  
AREA, CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR AT KPHF/KORF/KECG BEFORE THE END OF  
THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW. WIND WILL GO FROM CALM TONIGHT TO E AT  
~10 KT TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE.  
 
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE  
DURING SUN, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FM WEST TO EAST  
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY SUN  
AFTN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
CURRENT THINKING REMAINS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID  
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR BENIGN CONDITIONS ON THE  
WATERS. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCE ON HOW  
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY  
EVENING WITH THE NAM A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE 12Z  
RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NAM TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT SOME  
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SO DID TICK WINDS UP A  
JUST TOUCH THERE, BUT OVERALL KEPT CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, THE WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND  
COULD BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AT 925 ARE WELL  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE MIXING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE TO HAVE  
KEPT GUST IN THE SCA RANGE AT THIS POINT. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH  
IS AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE THE MIXING  
IMPROVES AND THE WIND GUST COULD BRIEFLY GET TO THE GALE RANGE,  
BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS IN THE SCA RANGE. BEHIND THE  
FRONT, THE COLD ADVECTION IS REALLY GOOD THROUGH THE DAY ON  
MONDAY SO EXPECT TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 20 - 25 KT WINDS  
ACROSS THE WATERS. THE GUST WILL NOT BE A GOOD SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT  
EXPECT GOOD MIXING ON MONDAY SO HAVE HIGHER GUST UP TO NEAR GALE  
FORCE.  
 
BY MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND  
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WEAKENING, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS  
RELAXING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD  
WITH GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 900 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
FLOOD WARNINGS CONT PORTIONS OF THE JAMES, NOTTOWAY AND MEHERRIN  
RIVERS THRU THE WEEKEND. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS  
CLIMB AT LEAST INTO ACTION STAGE IF NOT REACHING MINOR FLOOD AT  
LOCATIONS LIKE FARMVILLE. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE KEY AS THE  
SOIL ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED LEAD TO MUCH OF THE  
RAIN RUNNING OFF NOT SOAKING IN.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TMG  
NEAR TERM...MPR  
SHORT TERM...TMG/RHR  
LONG TERM...MPR  
AVIATION...TMG/CP  
MARINE...ESS  
HYDROLOGY...AKQ  
 
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