221
FXUS61 KAKQ 300656
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
256 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
- GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A LATE SUMMER HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORNING PATCHY FOG GIVES WAY TO A MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
SUNDAY.
2) HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MORNING FOG GIVES WAY TO A MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE SUNDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND IS NUDGING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER. NORTH OF THE FRONT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY THE VA
PIEDMONT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING FOG THIS MORNING. ANY FOG
QUICKLY DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LEADING
TO A SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY DAY. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY, BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW (POPS <20%). HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
AUGUST, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
BY LATE WEEK.
A STRONG 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEK. WARM ADVECTION AND
DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY (LOCALLY UPPER 90S ON TUESDAY). MAX HEAT
INDICES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 100 TO 104
DUE TO DEEP MIXING KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CAP MOST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, LIMITING ANY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO <15% (A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DUE TO THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE).
THE RIDGE PEAKS IN STRENGTH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FLATTENING LATER IN THE
WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. THE NBM EVEN SHOWS A FEW 100
DEGREE READINGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TOO WARM AND IS A KNOWN BIAS. STILL, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS OVERACHIEVE. THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THURSDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE
TO HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AI/MACHINE LEARNING TOOLS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILS AT ALL SITES TO START OFF THE FORECAST
PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO PATCHY FOG,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT RIC AND ECG. ANY FOG DISSIPATES
BY 13Z, WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN E-SE WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF ECG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW (POP <15%).
OUTLOOK: PREDOMINATELY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF TODAY. LATER THIS
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTS
BACK NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE S/SE.
FORECASTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TO
10 TO 15KT WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN WATERS. GOING INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY WITHIN THE 5-10KT
RANGE AND VARY IN DIRECTION BETWEEN SW AND SE WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-3FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES (HIGHEST IN THE LOWER
CHES. BAY) AND WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT SEAS AND 1-2 FT WAVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC
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