774
FXUS61 KAKQ 272318
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
718 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
3) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SE VA, NE
NC, AND THE EASTERN SHORE. THE INITIAL LINE THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NC APPEARED TO BE MOVING, HOWEVER,
THE MOTION OF STORMS HAS SINCE BECOME VERY SLOW TO NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE MORE STATIONARY STORMS HAVE LIKELY DEVELOPED ALONG A
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY, WITH NO STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND THUS FAR. THIS
HAS LEAD TO SOME FLASH-FLOODING ACROSS THE VA BEACH AREA, AS WELL AS
AREAS NEAR MELFA, VA ON THE EASTERN SHORE (RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL
HAS REACHED NEARLY 4" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN THIS
AREA). ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP
IMPRESSIVE CORES THAT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 30-40 KT, ML CAPE VALUES OF 1,000-
2,000J/KG, AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE KEEPING OUR AREA WITHIN A NW
MID/UPPER LOW REGIME. WITH THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT, ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS NOT EXCITED ABOUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND THIS EVENING, AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY
LOW WEST OF I-95. AS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WANES, RAIN CHANCES
WILL DWINDLE TO 10% OR LESS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WITH LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT, AREAS THAT SAW RAIN MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW ARE PROGGED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN FACT, THE LOW COULD DEEPEN TO 993MB
WITH -2 TO -3 SIGMA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING IT IS LATE JULY. THERE WILL BE A BELT OF 40-50 KT 500MB
WINDS ON THE SW SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. AHEAD OF ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S IN MOST AREA
AND HELP INCREASE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SHOW SOLID MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0
DEGREES, AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG. WITH VERY GOOD
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, COMBINED WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT, THERE COULD
BE A ROBUST DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR TOMORROW. ISOLATED
BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE MORE BACKED. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT HAS EXPANDED THE
30% WIND CONTOUR ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AND UPPED THE TORNADO
THREAT SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE
COAST. THE MAIN BUST POTENTIAL WILL BE ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING THAT COULD POTENTIALLY CONTAMINATE
OUR ENVIRONMENT AND LEAD TO A LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW. STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY, WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT
FLOODING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH-FLOODING, MAINLY IN
URBAN/FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW, THERE COLD BE SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL
HAS LOW POPS, BUT HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED PENDING THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AS LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 718 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW-LEVEL CIGS AND OR PATCHY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SBY AND ECG TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT THESE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE STORMS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN THE
AFTERNOON, SO TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. AT THIS TIME,
PROB-30S HAVE BEEN ADDED TO MULTIPLE TERMINALS DUE TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS.
OUTLOOK: STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
CONTINUING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, BUT POPS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN ON
TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS WITH S-SW WINDS ALONG WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE THIS AFTN, WITH A
TROUGH IMMEDIATELY INLAND. THE WIND IS GENERALLY S 5-10KT AND
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 10-15KT. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY TSTMS NEAR THE COASTLINES. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 2-3FT, WITH 1-2FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH WASHES OUT WITH THE WIND BECOMING SSW 10-15KT
BY LATER TONIGHT. FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PUSHES E ACROSS NY/PA WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOCAL WIND
PROBS SHOW ABOUT A 50-70% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18KT N OF WINDMILL POINT
NOON TO 6PM TUESDAY. HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID-LATE AFTN, WHICH WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW. HAVE
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY SCAS FOR THE CHES. BAY AT THIS TIME GIVEN
MARGINAL CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION. SCAS ON
THE OCEAN ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS LOCAL PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS ARE
BELOW 50%. ALSO, THIS IS A WAA REGIME, SO SEAS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
TO 5 FT, ESPECIALLY IF THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SW THAN S. REGARDLESS,
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TUESDAY IS STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS OVER ALL
OF THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS AS WELL. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 KT AND SHIFT TO
THE NW. NW WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS RANGE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...AJZ/ERI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page