992
FXUS61 KAKQ 060956
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
556 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED STORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF NE NC
FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY.
2) HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S.
3) A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
PORTIONS OF NE NC FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY.
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN COAST REGION
OF THE NC FOREST SERVICE (NCFS) THIS WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES
MOST LOCAL NE NC COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHAMPTON.
THEREFORE, NCFS HAS REQUESTED AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
(IFD) FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS RESULTING
FROM ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, LACK OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
LEADING TO LOW SOIL MOISTURE, AND ABNORMALLY DRY DEAD FUELS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT IN LIVE COASTAL
FUELS. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND SUNDAY AND ABNORMALLY LOW RH VALUES (25-30% TODAY AND 25-35%
SUNDAY). WILL ALSO NOTE THAT SW WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
AROUND 20 MPH TODAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AS
SUCH, HAVE ISSUED AN IFD FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER, WILL HANDLE THE IFD ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS AND
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN IFD FOR SUNDAY UNTIL TODAY'S IFD IS OVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING. CIRRUS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER. HOWEVER,
STILL EXPECT CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE (PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95) WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
60S WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HOT (AND DRY) WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND LOWER TO MID 90S
SUNDAY (WARMEST SOUTH). EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT,
DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. IN FACT, AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE THE 50S TODAY, KEEPING HEAT
INDICES AROUND (OR EVEN JUST BELOW) THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. DEW
POINTS APPEAR TO RISE SUNDAY INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH MAX HEAT INDICES SIMILAR TO TODAY. WILL NOTE
THAT DEW POINTS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS NEAR/ALONG THE
FRONT AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS FAR S VA AND
NE NC.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS, FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS. THE LATEST CAMS HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH STORMS POTENTIALLY FORMING AS EARLY
AS 12-1 PM ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE SPREADING ESE/SE
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 30-45%. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN INSTABILITY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INVERTED V SOUNDINGS, AND ADEQUATE SHEAR, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS.
THEREFORE, SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY (DUE TO WEAK FORCING).
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH NOT EVERYONE RECEIVING
RAIN. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS TYPE OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F SW MONDAY. WILL NOTE
THAT THESE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN COOL ONSHORE FLOW, BUT HAVE
TRENDED LOWER THAN NBM FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WARMING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S BY LATE WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS FROM MID-LATE WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS
REGARDING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 555 AM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. SCT CIRRUS EARLY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL (MAINLY SCT-BKN) CIRRUS LIKELY MOVES INTO
THE AREA LATER TODAY. FEW-SCT CIRRUS CONTINUE TONIGHT. WINDS
WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT LATER TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO ~20 KT
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTO CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS (20-40% CHANCE) ARRIVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE (30-40%) OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF NE/ONSHORE FLOW AND POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OFF THE SE CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE N NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS NOTED EAST OF THE HIGHER APPALACHIAN TERRAIN. WINDS HAVE BECOME
SW 10-15 KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH OFFSHORE. WAVES
ARE 1-2 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SW WINDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS IN EITHER THE CHES BAY OR COASTAL WATERS. A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE BUT THIS POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. MOST OF THE WAVE GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR 5+ FT SEAS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
ZONES AS WELL SO WILL NOT BE RAISING ANY SMALL CRAFT ADV
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A LULL IN WINDS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, A FEW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS BECOMING NE 10-20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE NE WIND SURGE WITH
MOST GUIDANCE NOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
OFFSHORE AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOWER JAMES/CHESAPEAKE BAY.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT IN THE POST-FRONTAL NE
FLOW. COULD SEE 6+ FT SEAS SOUTH OF VA BEACH INTO THE OBX IF THE
WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WAVES IN THE
BAY WILL MOSTLY BE 2- 3 FT WITH 3-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
6/6 6/7
RIC 96/1952 100/2008
ORF 97/2002 101/2008
SBY 102/1925 97/2008
ECG 96/1939 99/2008
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...RMM
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