960
FXUS61 KAKQ 210548
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
- ALL TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES HAVE ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE SE 1/2
OF THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED.
2) THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
3) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1035 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE SE 1/2 OF THE AREA, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BISECTING
THE CWA, AND SLOWLY DROPPING FARTHER TO THE SE. AS THE SFC
FRONT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT, IT MAY STALL
OVERNIGHT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WHILE THERE IS STILL DECENT ML CAPE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC (> 1000 J/KG), SFC-BASED CAPE HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF
PORTIONS OF NE NC (PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRONGER STORMS FROM
EARLIER TODAY). THEREFORE, ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT IS QUITE
LOW, AND EVEN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS BEEN SCALED BACK. WITH
THAT SAID, STILL COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AROUND 4 AM, AND POPS
REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE SE PORTION OF THE FA. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOW-MID 70S IN THE FAR SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW BEFORE PUSHING
TOWARD THE COAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING OUR AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PERSISTING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ON FRIDAY. WITH THE DISAGREEMENT A FLOOD
WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A FLOOD WATCH
MAYBE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ONCE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY IS NOTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC, INTRODUCING A DRIER AIR MASS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE 06Z/21 TAF PERIOD. A
STORM IN THE VICINITY OF ORF MOVES TO THE EAST, AND IF THE BOUNDARY
IS ABLE TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR ECG
OVERNIGHT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, HENCE THE PROB30 FROM 06-
08Z. AFTER THIS, STORMS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVES IN BEHIND THE STORMS WITH EVIDENCE OF LOWERED MVFR CIGS
ALREADY ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INCLUDING SBY AND ECG
(WITH RIC/ORF/PHF LIKELY SEEING CIG DROPS BY 07-08Z). MVFR CIGS
(WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIG POSSIBLE) WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY. THEN,
SHOWERS/STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS TO THE SE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TRIES TO PUSH BACK NORTH.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. EVENTUALLY DRYING OUT LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREVAILING SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SSE WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE WATERS LATER TODAY, STALLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE BOUNDARY NEARBY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION (15-20 KT), ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE VARIABLE. THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
INLAND, SO EXPECTING STORM CHANCES OVER WATER TO RAMP UP NOW THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE, AND SMWS ARE
LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL. WHILE SEVERE WX IS LESS LIKELY WHEN COMPARED TO THURSDAY, A
FEW SMWS ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/LKB
AVIATION...KMC
MARINE...AC/KMC
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