231
FXUS61 KAKQ 181049
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST
NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TODAY, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORM CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
2) IN LIGHT OF THE BREEZY AND HOT CONDITIONS, A LATE-SEASON
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADDED FOR MOST OF OUR
NC COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID TODAY, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORM CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
HEATING UP TODAY AS SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30MPH.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105F HAVE PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AS FAR WEST AS GREENSVILLE COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF
THE ADVISORY, HEAT INDICES WILL BE 97-102.
STORM CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BASED ON THE 00Z SUITE OF CAMS, STORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL LIKELY BE KEPT TO THE N/NW COUNTIES- PRIMARILY FROM
CUMBERLAND NORTHEAST TO DORCHESTER MD. POPS ARE LESS THAN 40%
THROUGH 00Z. STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY (UP TO
~1800 J/KG MID AFTERNOON). THE LATER START TIME, HOWEVER, WILL
MEAN WANING INSTABILITY AS STORMS GET GOING. THE HREF DEPICTS
QUICKLY DROPPING MEAN MLCAPE VALUES WITH VALUES AROUND 1100
AT 8PM, THEN DOWN TO 500 J/KG BY 10. THIS MEANS THE WINDOW FOR
SEVERE WILL BE ROUGHLY 5-9PM. PRIMARY HAZARD IS STILL DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS EVIDENCED BY DCAPE VALUES OF 800-1000 J/KG. THE
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC STILL GOES DOWN TO THE NC
BORDER, BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS PROBABLY NORTH OF US-460.
STARTING TO SEE SOME CONSENSUS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES GOING INTO FRIDAY. IT APPEARS ALL THE MODELS ARE ON
BOARD WITH DEVELOPING A SFC LOW FROM THE REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE FROM
THE GULF, THOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
DAY, LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE SE AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OUT
TO SEA. IF THE LOW IS A BIT STRONGER LIKE THE ECMWF STILL
SUGGESTS, THIS COULD MEAN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AT LEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RAIN CLEARS OUT FROM NW TO SE LATER IN
THE DAY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...IN LIGHT OF THE BREEZY AND HOT CONDITIONS, A
LATE-SEASON INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADDED FOR
MOST OF OUR NC COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNSLOPE W-SW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND NCFS FIRE OFFICIALS,
CONCERN FOR 20-30 MPH GUSTS AND HOT TEMPERATURES, DESPITE
MARGINAL RH VALUES (~35-40%), JUSTIFIES THE IFD STATEMENT. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND VERY
DRY FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST OF 12Z/18 TAF PERIOD. SW FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH ELEVATED WINDS LASTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE A SCATTERED STORMS WILL
BE IN THE AREA PRIOR, TERMINALS LIKELY WILL NOT SEE IMPACTS
UNTIL AFTER 03Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACT AT RIC/PHF/ORF. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES CIGS START DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER 09Z.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS CONTINUE INTO
FRI AFTERNOON, WITH BEST CHANCES AT PHF/ORF/ECG. DRIER
CONDITIONS/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE FRI THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ELEVATED SW WINDS CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE 20-60NM ZONE SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OVER THE WATERS
LEADING TO WINDS BECOME SW AND INCREASING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING
2 TO 3 FEET, WHILES WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE RUNNING AROUND 1
TO 2 FEET.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, CREATING A STRONG GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SE COAST. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS PF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR
SHORE, INCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AND SOUTHERN CHES BAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AND A GALE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN 20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONE OFF THE
NC COAST. STILL THINKING THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SE THIRD OF THE ZONE. WAVES IN THE BAY INCREASE TO 2-3 FT WITH SEAS
4-6 FT NEARSHORE AND 5-8 FT WELL OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASED WAVES/SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE
FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING N AND NW 5-10 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. MUCH IMPROVED MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING SW WINDS.
CLIMATE
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW 6/18
RECORD
HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 6/18
-------- ----
RICHMOND 100 (1970)
NORFOLK 99 (1944)
SALISBURY 98 (2014)
ELIZ. CITY 100 (2011)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ087>090-092-097-098-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ688.
DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...MAM
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