941
FXUS61 KAKQ 211451
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
951 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FARTHER AWAY INTO ATLANTIC CANADA
DURING TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO AND OVER
THE REGION. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 950 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY/COLDER AND BREEZY/WINDY TODAY UNDER A SUNNY OR MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. THERE ARE
SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS JUST TO THE WEST OF DORCHESTER COUNTY
MARYLAND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAKE
IT OVER TO DORCHESTER COUNTY OF WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, THOUGH WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10+ DEGREES F, AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND MINNESOTA.
THE SKY COVER RANGED FROM CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.
COLDER/DRY WX IS EXPECTED TODAY, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE LOW TRACKS INTO ATLC CANADA. IN
ADDITION, BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH) ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. UNDER
A PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKY, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA (AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLC/NE BY SUN NIGHT). CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. IT MAY
STILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST WITH BAY EFFECT CLOUDS,
BUT WINDS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS SUN
MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ON THE
MD EASTERN SHORE. COLD BUT SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUN, WITH
HIGHS ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD,
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR CALM SUN NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE TEENS INLAND, WITH UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S NEAR THE COAST.
WITH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE MUCH LOWER
THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MON, BUT SFC
RIDGING WILL STILL BE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MAINLY SUNNY AND STILL COLD ON MON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. DRY AND NOT AS COLD MON
NIGHT, WITH THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH WELL OUT INTO THE ATLC ON TUE, WHILE
A WEAK/DRY BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT (ASIDE FROM PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
UP NORTH). A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE
FROM WED-FRI, AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, A COUPLE OF SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW,
WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER FOR TUE AND WED, WITH JUST 15-25% POPS
FOR RAIN LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI, WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
THROUGH THE PERIOD (WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE). LOWS MODERATE
INTO THE 30S-LOWER 40S BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM THIS MORNING
INTO SUN MORNING. NW OR N WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY MOST
AREAS FROM ~14Z THROUGH ~21Z TODAY. DIMINISHING WINDS THIS
EVENING (THOUGH REMAINING A BIT BREEZY AT THE COAST INITIALLY).
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
LATER THIS MORNING INTO SUN MORNING.
OUTLOOK: LESS WIND WITH DRY WX/VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SUN AND
MON.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ADVERSE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT ARE EXPECTED.
- SEAS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY. CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS DEEPENING ~993MB LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST
OF THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, COLD ~1040MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS ENSUED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH WINDS AVERAGING 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, THOUGH WINDS ARE LAGGING A LITTLE BIT OVER THE EASTERN
VA RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. EASTERLY SWELL HAS ALLOWED SEAS
TO BUMP UP TO 4-7 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH WAVES ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 FT ON THE BAY, 1-2 FT ON THE RIVERS AND SOUND.
NW WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE TOWARD AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE,
PEAKING LATE THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A
BIT FURTHER. NW WINDS AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KT ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. A FEW OCCASIONAL
OCCURRENCES OF GUSTS ~34 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 10-15Z/5-10 AM EST THIS MORNING. ANY OF
THESE OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT THEY
SHOULD BE BEST HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS, AS NEEDED.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND, BUT STILL SOLIDLY TO SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN 4-7 FT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 8+ SEAS
OFFSHORE OF THE SRN VA AND NC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SEAS START TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SEAS/WAVES ALSO
SLOWLY FALL, THOUGH 5 FT SEAS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON THIS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE BAY, SOUND AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER INTO LATER SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SCA FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS N OF THE PARRAMORE ISLAND PUSHED INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE SOUTHERN
WATERS INTO LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, MUCH WEAKER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODIFYING COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA, BUT REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO OUR N. WINDS BRIEFLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE, BECOMING NORTHERLY
ON CHRISTMAS DAY/WEDNESDAY BEHIND ANOTHER (WEAKER) COLD FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/SW
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