532
FXUS61 KAKQ 211746
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER FROM MONDAY THROUGH PART OF MONDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY TODAY.
2) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY, WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN TAKES HOLD MID
TO LATE-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
TODAY.
ANOTHER COOL JUNE MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA, AND LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SKIRTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
HELPING KEEP SOME OF THE HUMIDITY AT BAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NW APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM FRONT
ATTACHED TO THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST, WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, RETURNING ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY, WITH SOME STORMS
POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN
TAKES HOLD MID TO LATE-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH (25-30
MPH ON THE EASTERN SHORE) ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF ANY DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 90S, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING, WHICH FAVORS INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORM POTENTIAL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS THIS CAP ERODES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND NOTED THAT
ALL THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTIPLE TYPES OF STORM
MODES. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE AREA, SO THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A
QUICK CLIP. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG
(~20 KTS), LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP DUE TO THE VERY
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER-
LOADED/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH THIS SET-UP COULD POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES OR SMALL HAIL PENDING THE EVOLUTION
OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.75-2",
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CERTAINLY
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. CURRENT QPF VALUES FOR THE AREA RANGE BETWEEN
0.25" (SE) TO ~1" (NW), BUT LOCALIZED AREAS OF OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH SE VA AND NE NC MAY STILL BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, TO SUPPORT SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THE FRONT MOVES QUICKER,
THEN THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TIME BEING. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, EXPECT LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. W-SW
WINDS INLAND ~5-10 KT, WITH SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAKING FOR
MORE VARIABLE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NE AT PHF AND E-SE AT ORF AND
POTENTIALLY ECG LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS VEER TO THE S-SE
THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS A WARM
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. FEW-SCT HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN EVOLVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN LATE DAY/EVENING TSTMS, WITH SCATTERED EARLY MORNING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO EARLY MORNING MIFG ALSO POSSIBLE.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER FROM MON THROUGH PART OF MON NIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2
FT WAVES. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZES AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARBY. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING A WARM FRONT NORTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 15-20 KT ON THE
RIVERS, AND 20-25 KT ACROSS PART OF THE BAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER (WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT) BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACROSS THE NC
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL PEAK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES NORTH OF
THE VA-NC BORDER FROM LATE MON AM/MON AFTN THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT SOUTH/4-6 FT NORTH NEARSHORE, AND 5-7 FT
ACROSS THE 20-60 NM OFFSHORE ZONES. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING, WHICH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMWS. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO
OUR NORTH, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, N-NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KT ON THE BAY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SCAS IF THINGS TREND
UPWARD. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW A ~10% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE BAY ON TUESDAY. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. A
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES
ON MON AND MODERATE ACROSS VA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ635>637-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...RHR/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...ERI
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