331
FXUS61 KAKQ 140739
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
339 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSIONS.
THE UPPER RIVERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE SCAS FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BECOMING BREEZY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY
BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SE THROUGH MID AFTN.
2) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
HUMIDITY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE FRI-SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BECOMING BREEZY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
MAINLY DRY BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SE THROUGH
MID AFTN.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES YESTERDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOW WELL OFF THE COAST, WITH THE NEXT TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED
ACROSS QUEBEC, AND STRETCHING SW ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO AND INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALREADY OVER THE REGION, WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY MID-SEPTEMBER STANDARDS
PREVAIL WITH MOST AREAS STILL SEEING DEW PTS OF 70F+, BUT THIS
WILL BE THE LAST MORNING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THESE
CONDITIONS. PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED, BUT VSBYS ARE
GENERALLY 1-3 MILES SO DENSE FOG IS NOT A CONCERN. WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SE AND CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS, EXPECT THE FOG TO DIMINISH NEAR SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SE AND PASSES ACROSS THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTN, SLIDING OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EXPANDING NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NW AND WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO
RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THIS OCCURS, WITH A FEW HRS OF BKN
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTN
BEFORE SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC WHERE THE DEW PTS REMAIN HIGHER IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
MUCH DRIER AIR SURGING IN FROM THE NORTH, ALONG WITH PRESSURE
RISES WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY N TO NE WIN LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH INLAND
AND ~30 MPH NEAR THE COAST. AFTERNOON DEW PTS LOOK TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 60S IN THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE FRI-SAT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, MUCH COOLER
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, BUT RANGING FROM AS COOL AS NEAR 50F
IN THE FAR NW TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
IN SE VA AND NC OBX WITH THE NE WINDS OFF THE WATER. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TUE-
WED AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1030 MB), TO
SET UP FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SW INTO THE CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE
LOW-MID 80S THROUGH WED WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
(LOCALLY WARMER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE MODELS NOW MOSTLY
HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR S/SE POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING LATE
IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD RETROGRADE THE RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. OVERALL, A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW THIS EVOLVES, BUT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-SEPTEMBER,
WITH SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES LATE FRI-SAT, AND THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
PATCHY GROUND FOG IS LEADING TO OCCASIONAL IFR-MVFR VSBYS AT
SBY/PHF/ECG EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE AND EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 09-12Z AS THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH STARTS TO PUSH CLOSER INTO THE REGION.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING, AND MORE CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT ORF/ECG INTO EARLY-MID
AFTN IN THE NNE WINDS, BUT ANY CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
VFR AT >3K FT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR AS WELL AT
ECG, BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR A PROB30 MENTION.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW MOST AREAS BETWEEN 09-12Z,
AND THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT N WINDS TO GUST TO 20-25 KT
FROM LATER MORNING (STARTING BETWEEN 14-15Z) AND LASTING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTN, BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER ~21-22Z. ORF/ECG WILL
KEEP GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH 23-02Z THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT WHILE THE REMAINING TERMINALS DROP
OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KT RATHER QUICKLY.
OUTLOOK: STAYING DRY TUES-THU WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXCEPT LOCALLY
BREEZY ON TUE ALONG THE COAST IN SE VA AND NE NC. GENERALLY VFR
WITH NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE, TIDAL RIVERS,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND FOR INCREASING NE WINDS BEHIND A FRONT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATER TUESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STRETCHING
ALONG THE THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH A 1022MB HIGH
PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-
10 KT AND WAVES ARE REMAINING LOW WITH 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY,
AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. HOWEVER, EXPECT MARINE
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING IN
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30KT ACROSS THE
TIDAL RIVERS, THE BAY, AND THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES
STARTING THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL MENTION
THAT THE COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND MAY EXPERIENCE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25KT GUSTS WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE
FRONT, HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT LAST LONG. THEREFORE SCA ARE NOT IN
EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 2-4FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAY AND
3-4FT SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
AND 4-5FT SEAS SOUTH.
WINDS WILL LIKELY START TO DECREASE BY LATE TONIGHT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS
WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NE. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
15 KT ACROSS THE BAY AND 15-20KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER,
SEAS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND FAVORS ELEVATED SEAS. SEAS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO 5-6FT WITH 7FT SEAS LIKELY IN
THE NC/VA 20-60NM ZONES. THESE ELEVATED SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. HENCE THE REASON SCA STAY IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO SUB-SCA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOW RIPS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE MD BEACHES FOR TODAY, HOWEVER, AN
UPGRADE MAYBE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND QUICK THE N-S
CURRENT FORMS. MODERATE RIPS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE VA EASTERN SHORE
AND SOUTH. THIS IS DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG N-S MOVING
CURRENT ACROSS THE VA EASTERN SHORE AND NEARSHORE WAVES OF 3-FT WITH
A QUICK PERIOD THAT WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. FOR TOMORROW,
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE RIP RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
FOR QUICK PERIOD THAT WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. WHILE ACROSS
THE SOUTH UPGRADED TO HIGH RIP RISK FOR DANGEROUS SHORE-BREAK OF 4
FEET OR GREATER WITH SHORT PERIODS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...HET
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