813
FXUS61 KAKQ 190515
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION UPDATE. SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING HOT AND DRY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
2) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN LOOKS TO EVOLVE
FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING HOT AND DRY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST RAIN
CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
BUILDING RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LOCK IN A
SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID
90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
EACH DAY, PERHAPS INCREASING A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY, CULMINATING
WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG MIXING AND
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW EARLY MORNING
DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON, AND FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S EACH DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR
TEMPS, AS WELL AS DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANY CONVECTION ONLY REACHING NORTH
AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LIKELY STAYING OUT OF THE RIC METRO.
SPC HAS INCLUDED NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING RIC METRO,
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL
WITH THE CONCERN OF STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE AREA, BUT
NONETHELESS, STILL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN
LOOKS TO EVOLVE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN TO
SE RIDGE, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LEAVING A CAD WEDGE SETUP WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO 70S WITH CLOUDY, DRIZZLY CONDITIONS. THEN ON
SATURDAY, THE WEDGE AIRMASS WILL ERODE, PUSHING A WARM FRONT
BACK THROUGH THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT/SUN, BUT BY NO MEANS DOES THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE WEEK DO
NOT LOOK LIKE THE DROUGHT BUSTER WE NEED, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING A MEAN OF ONLY 0.50-1.00" FOR THE WEEK. WILL NOTE THAT
WITH RECENT SYSTEMS, THE ENSEMBLES WERE QUITE BULLISH WITH
PRECIP TOTALS AND WIDELY OVER-ESTIMATED MULTIPLE DAYS OUT.
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. 1024+MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WITH WINDS SSW 7-10 KT. WINDS LOOK TO
NUDGE UP TO 10-15KT BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE AFTN, AND POTENTIALLY
A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO SSE CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER IN THE
AFTN SEA BREEZE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. S/SW WINDS LIKELY GUST TO
15-20 KT ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SUB-VFR CIGS THEN PERSIST IN A WEAK COOL AIR WEDGE AIRMASS THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WHILE PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY
MORNING GROUND FOG.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- A FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE AT SCA
CONDITIONS.
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE S TO SW, AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY 1 TO 2 FEET. THROUGH MID-
WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH CONFIGURATION. WINDS REMAIN
PRIMARILY SSW AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY MID TO LATE-
AFTERNOON NEARSHORE SEABREEZE. THE AFTERNOON BREEZE WILL LIKELY
BRING ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT TO THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS VEER BACK
OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THESE SURGES WILL BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF AND LIKELY WILL NOT REQUIRE ANY SCAS. EXPECT
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NE WINDS LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS STILL SUGGEST THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT, ONLY
BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND CONDITIONS MAY STAY UNDER SCA
CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND. WHETHER OR NOT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH OR STALLS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE WIND REGIME LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
(INCLUDING OCEAN CITY, MD) ON TUESDAY, WITH A LOW RISK
ELSEWHERE. THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY CONTINUES FOR
THE NORTHERN BEACHES INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...
RICHMOND SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TODAY OF 96 DEGREES. THIS BROKE
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 DEGREES SET IN 1911.
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 5/19 - 5/20
RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 5/19 5/20
-------- ---- -----
RICHMOND 97 (1962) 97 (2022)
NORFOLK 96 (1880) 98 (1996)
SALISBURY 97 (2011) 98 (1911)
ELIZ. CITY 95 (1996) 98 (1996)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 5/19 - 5/20
RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 5/19 5/20
-------- ---- -----
RICHMOND 71 (1997) 71 (2018)
NORFOLK 72 (2017) 73 (1996)
SALISBURY 70 (1929) 70 (2018)
ELIZ. CITY 72 (2018) 73 (2018)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...AJB/NB
CLIMATE...MAM
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