718
FXUS61 KAKQ 050826
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
426 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF
WARMUP BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 425 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ALOFT, THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND GRADUALLY PUSHING WEST TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AMPLIFIED BELT OF NW/NNW
FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN CENTERED FROM OHIO INTO VA AND NC. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THIS WILL PLACE A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A
FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR STORMS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY HAS
BEEN THAT THE FROPA LOOKS TO BE SLOWER. WPC PLACES THE COLD
FRONT FROM CENTRAL VA INTO SE VA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH INTO NC. GIVEN THE SLOWER FROPA,
THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE SW HALF
OF THE AREA AND COULD EXTEND EVEN FARTHER NE. THE 00Z CAMS WERE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO WILL BECOME AN MCS AND FOLLOW THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE MORNING. THERE ARE TWO
MAIN SCENARIOS AFTERWARDS. THE FIRST POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE MCS
HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND RESTRENGTHENS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A LINE OF STORMS WITH STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE SECOND OPTION IS THAT
THE MCS BREAKS APART ONCE IT REACHES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
REMNANT VORTICITY HELPS A COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS AND
MULTICELLS FORM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
IN EITHER CASE, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SEVERE STORMS TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE 2-10 PM. HOWEVER, SOME CAMS HAVE CONVECTION
AS EARLY AS 10 AM WITH OTHERS SHOWING SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TAPERS OFF
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
ENVIRONMENTALLY, HREF SHOWS CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN
SHORE. MEANWHILE, SHEAR OF 35-45 KT OVERLAPS THE INSTABILITY,
CREATING A FAVORABLE BALANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY,
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6-6.5C THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER.
GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) TO NOW INCLUDE THE
I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK
HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED AND NOW INCLUDES THE NORTHERN NECK AND
VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELLS ARE REALIZED (AS
OPPOSED TO LINE SEGMENTS). IN FACT, IF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL WERE
TO FORM, HAIL LARGER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER (POTENTIALLY UP TO
PING BALL SIZED) ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS IS IF A SUPERCELL IS ABLE TO LATCH ONTO THE COLD FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT COULD BE ORIENTED NW TO SE WHICH FOLLOWS THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN
WEAK 0-1 KM SRH, A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A SUPERCELL IS
ABLE TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT GIVEN LOWER LCLS. WILL
NOTE THAT THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR TODAY'S SEVERE THREAT ARE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STABILITY (CIN) FROM YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN A LACK OF
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, DESTABILIZATION (AND THE EROSION OF
ANY LINGERING CIN) APPEARS LIKELY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARD. WPC HAS ALSO
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ERO) TODAY TO
INCLUDE THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THE SHEAR IN
PLACE, INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING (AS OPPOSED TO
BEING STATIONARY) WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
OUTSIDE OF TRAINING. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN RATES WITHIN STORMS AND
LOCALIZED TRAINING OF STORMS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING,
MAINLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DECREASE SUN (15-40%
POPS) WITH MOST CONVECTION LIKELY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (OR REMAINING SOUTH ALTOGETHER). BEYOND SUN,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
INTO MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP BY MIDWEEK.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
NE TO LOW-MID 90S SW WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. THESE COOLER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR A HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 80S
NE TO AROUND 100F SW. AS SUCH, WHILE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
HIGHS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER SUN INTO MON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 80S AREA-WIDE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDS BACK IN (AT LEAST BRIEFLY)
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
LOW-MID 90S POSSIBLE BY THU. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME GIVEN A PLETHORA OF SHORTWAVES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE RAIN
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PATCHY SCT040-080 SKIES REMAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE W ~5KTS INLAND, WITH PHF AND ECG
HOLDING ONTO 10+ KT. IF WINDS CAN SETTLE OVERNIGHT, THERE COULD
BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE N AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING WINDS TO BE NE AOB 10KT BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TSRA WITH
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF TS IN
ANY TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH
NE FLOW.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY TURNING WINDS
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KT. THESE WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND SUBSIDE BELOW 10KT AFTER DAYBREAK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY WITH THE THREAT OF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 1-
2FT WITH SEAS AROUND 2FT PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER PUSH OF CAA ARRIVES BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING 15-
20KT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. A FEW
GUSTS TO 25KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 3-4FT ACROSS THE NORTH (UP TO 5FT OFFSHORE) AND 4-5FT
FOR THE SOUTH (UP TO 6FT FURTHER OFFSHORE OF NC). WAVES IN THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 3-4FT AS WELL SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCAL WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED, HIGHLIGHTING THAT THE WINDS WILL BE
MARGINAL IN REGARDS TO NEEDING A SCA - WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS
FOR THE LOWER BAY AS THEY WOULD BE CLOSEST TO WIND THRESHOLDS. SCAS
ARE MORE LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NC COAST FOR ELEVATED
SEAS.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR ALL BEACHES. RIP RISK
BECOMES MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BUILD, THEN
HIGH FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES ON MONDAY AND MODERATE PERSISTING FOR THE
NORTH.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...ERI/JKP
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