336
FXUS61 KAKQ 241039
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES/DISCUSSIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH NUISANCE
TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, NOT QUITE AN OMEGA BLOCK, BUT A STRONG ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO KEEP THE UPSTREAM
TROUGHING OVER THE SW FROM GETTING EAST OF THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SUNDAY,
BEFORE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH AND MOVES OFF THE SE
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1034
MB) IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND, RIDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
COMPRESSED OVER SOUTHERN VA AND THE CAROLINAS, KEEPING THE
AIRMASS MIXED AND MILDER THAN 24 HRS AGO FOR MOST- TEMPERATURES
ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S AND 50S, THOUGH A FEW UPPER 30S ARE
NOTED OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SFC HIGH. ANY FROST SHOULD BE
PATCHY AT BEST THROUGH SUNRISE AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT.
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH AND INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT WITH A SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST, AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT/WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A LOT OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN LEAD TO A PERIOD OF PARTLY-
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DESPITE NO
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
BUT SEASONABLE IN THE LOW-MID 60S NORTH (AND ALONG THE COAST)
AND MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH. BREEZY E-NE
WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE, WHILE WINDS INLAND WILL
GENERALLY BE ~10 MPH OR LESS. FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH MID 30S NW AND UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. PATCHY
FROST IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS TO THE N AND W OF RICHMOND, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT A FROST ADVISORY IS
LOW AND WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT MAKE THE CALL.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY, CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO BE A BIT LESS, BUT SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS STILL LIKELY
ALONG AND S OF I-64. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM WILL LIKELY
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST SPREADING
EAST FROM THE PIEDMONT TO INTERIOR SE VA AS BETTER DECOUPLING IS
EXPECTED. CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NBM, WITH
MID 30S FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND AND MID-UPPER 30S
FOR INTERIOR SE VA. WARMER MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT (DRY) FRONT,
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO MIDWEEK AND STAYING DRY. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE CHANCE FOR JUST .01" OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH IS LESS THAN 10% FOR MOST OF THE CWA, WITH THE GEFS ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
THE COMBINATION OF SWELL STILL PROPAGATING TOWARD THE COAST AND
ELEVATED NE WINDS HAS KEPT TIDAL ANOMALIES AT 1.5-2FT ABOVE
NORMAL. THESE ANOMALIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AND/OR SLOWLY FALL
TODAY. THEREFORE, PRIMARILY NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
PRIMARILY FOR THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK, SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE
TIDAL POTOMAC, THE UPPER YORK, AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHES.
BAY. NUISANCE FLOODING MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SWELL
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT (BUT
WEAKER) ONSHORE FLOW, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES AS WE APPROACH FULL MOON.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z/24 TAF PERIOD WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE N-NE OF THE LOCAL AREA
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALREADY SEEING BKN
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE ERSN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK AND EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF BKN CUMULUS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT INLAND AND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT ALONG THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE CIGS LATER TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR AT 3500-4000
FT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FORECAST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, OUT OF THE
E-NE AND ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST IN SE VA AND NE NC, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHTER N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY. ELEVATED NE WINDS RETURN TUE-
WED.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DECREASING SOME MONDAY.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH ELEVATED SEAS
LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
1034MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THE IS
DRIVING WINDS NE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT FOR THE OCEAN.
WINDS OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES WERE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT
WITH 15 KT ON CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 5-6FT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND 6-8FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL WATERS OF NC. WAVES WERE 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY
(LOCALLY HIGHER AT THE MOUTH).
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SSE INTO NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NE/ENE FLOW
WITH DECREASING WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TODAY. SCAS
WILL EXPIRE FOR MOST OF THE BAY THIS MORNING THOUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN ENE AT 15 KT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
LOWER BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
NE WINDS INCREASE SOME EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KT EARLY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN
DECREASING NW WIND. HOWEVER, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THEREFORE, AN ENE
WIND WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS. SCAS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE
MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY, AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (AND
POTENTIALLY LONGER) FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...NE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME AGAIN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE IRREGARDLESS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ076-078-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ083-084-
097>100-518-520-523-525-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
633-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJZ/JAO
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