467
FXUS61 KAKQ 202340
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
740 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF OUR HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES/CITIES.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST AND/OR A FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
2) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE NOT UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...FROST AND/OR A FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE (~1030 MB) BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS. THE COLD, DRY AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SURROUNDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
WEST AND OVER TO THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
A HARD FREEZE (LOWS IN THE 20S) WILL BE FOR OUR COUNTIES N/NW OF
RICHMOND AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. FURTHER
EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ~32 TO 36F WHICH WILL LEAD TO
FROST FORMATION. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FREEZE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE RICHMOND METRO, PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK AND
MIDDLE PENINSULA, AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA DOWN INTO
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA. FROST ADVISORIES WERE EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE A MAJORITY OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF OUR HAMPTON ROADS AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES/CITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE NOT UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. DESPITE POPS OF ~40 TO 60%,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF, WITH ALL OF THE MAIN MODELS
SHOWING ~0.10" OR LESS. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY (MLCAPE ~500
J/KG) A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 80S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. A STRONGER
SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER, BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS ARE
AVERAGING ~0.25-0.50" QPF.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, WITH ANY
REMAINING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AS THIS OCCURS. A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20
KTS THROUGH 02-03Z ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS (OR ISOLATED STORMS) AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN
A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NOW THE TIDAL
RIVERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
- A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AS WELL AS THE LOWER JAMES RIVER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A STRONG (~1028MB) HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT. WNW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE TIDAL RIVERS, SO HAVE INCLUDED THESE AREAS IN A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALONG WITH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KT AND SHIFT OUT OF
THE N. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY ARE 1-3 FT WAVES THIS AFTN INTO
TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND SETTLES OFFSHORE
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OFFSHORE. A SSW WIND INCREASES TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT
FOR THE CHES. BAY, NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND POTENTIALLY THE
LOWER JAMES RIVER. SCAS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT TUESDAY, AND THEN BUILD TO 3-4FT N (4-5FT OFFSHORE)
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING 2-3FT S (3-
4FT OFFSHORE). THIS COLD FRONT SETTLES THROUGH AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEK.
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT/1-2FT LATER IN THE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ012.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ013>016-
030>032.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-092-509>522.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097>100-509>525-528>531.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ077-078-
084-085-089-090-097-099-523-528-529.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634>637-639.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...AJZ/KMC
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