004
FXUS61 KAKQ 162345
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
INLAND.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY, AS AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
DRY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
INLAND.
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A SFC LOW PULLING
AWAY OFFSHORE. AREAS E OF I-95 ARE STILL UNDER THICK CLOUD COVER AS
OF LATEST SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP THROUGH
THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WET GROUND CONDITIONS FROM LAST NIGHT'S
RAIN, (MOSTLY) CLEAR SKIES, AND VERY LIGHT WINDS MEAN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR IT WOULD BE INLAND
WHERE CLEARER SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY. CLOSER TO THE COAST, STUBBORN
CLOUD COVER MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUD BASES RATHER THAN FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY, AS AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
DRY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN LATE WEEK.
A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ANCHORED FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO TO FLORIDA TUES-THURS, SHIFTING EAST TO FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PNW WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST BEING WED AND
POTENTIALLY THUR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA, SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NEAR THE COAST AND ON
THE EASTERN SHORE, WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LESS CERTAIN ABOUT TEMPERATURES ON THURS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. AREAS N OF THE FRONT MAY BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST COULD BE PUSHING 70. HARD TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WHERE THAT LINE WILL BE, ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH WEAK
FORCING MECHANISMS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY PUSH
BACK N ON FRI, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY MILD TEMPS. WITH THE
BOUNDARY WAFFLING THROUGH THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL FRONTS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST, SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURS AND ESPECIALLY FRI.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THE PATTERN DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING
DOWN, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL, PARTICULARLY BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
MVFR CIGS/OVC SKIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH VFR/MAINLY
SKC SKIES INLAND TO START OFF THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS
TO BUILD BACK INLAND AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY AM, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPS LATER
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING THE
MAINLY SKC SKIES. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND OR
AFTER 14Z TUESDAY AS SW FLOW INCREASES.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY- FRIDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
INTO THIS EVENING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LIKELY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT,
BACKING THE WINDS TO THE E-NE.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFFSHORE,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
THE NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE LOWER BAY/SOUND, BUT ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF ELSEWHERE THIS
AFTN, WITH SCAS NOW IN EFFECT ONLY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES.
SEAS ARE 4-7 FT NORTH, 6-9 FT SOUTH, WITH WAVES UP TO 4 FT IN
THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO ~10 KT OR
LESS THIS EVENING, ALL REMAINING SCAS MINUS THE OCEAN WILL DROP
OFF. FOR THE OCEAN, SEAS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
EVENING, SO THE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z/WED FOR
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND THROUGH 06Z/WED FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER IN TIME
AS ADDITIONAL SWELL MAY MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY. ALSO, INCREASING
SW FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SCAS FOR THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS,
AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BACKING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NE OVER THE WATERS AND ADJACENT LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD OVER THE LOWER CHES BAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
FRIDAY, BUT THE GENERAL TRENDS IS FOR THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK
NORTH OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA, SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE SW (THOUGH FOR THE UPPER BAY AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS THE FRONT COULD STRUGGLE TO GET THAT FAR NORTH).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AC/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...LKB/MAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page