986
FXUS61 KAKQ 151052
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST TODAY DUE
TO THE EXPECTED STRONG SEA BREEZE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK. NEXT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY THEN OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND
WARMER THAN THURSDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. COASTAL
AREAS WILL HAVE A STRONG SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD KEEPS
IN THE 60S. ELSEWHERE, LOW-MID 70S EXPECTED. MAIN CHANGE AWAY FROM
NBM GUIDANCE TODAY IS TO LOWER DEW POINTS DUE TO EXPECTED DEEP
MIXING IN THE CONTINUED NW FLOW.
SATURDAY STARTS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WITH UPPER RIDING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH OFF THE SE COAST ALLOWING FOR
INCREASINGLY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS HIGH WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. THE MULTI-MODEL
SUPERENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A 50-65% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES OF
AT LEAST 90 ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WITH THE 700MB RIDGE OVERHEAD.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEARLY A 100% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
90 AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH ABOUT A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST 95 DEGREES. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY SOILS, IT
WOULD SEEM LIKE A PUSH INTO THE LOW-MID 90S IS NOT UNREASONABLE.
LUCKILY, DEW POINTS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S SO HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD STILL STAY BELOW 100F. A FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN OR IF THIS FRONT
WILL ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LARGE
SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CURRENTLY MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER MD/DE AND
NORTHERN/FAR EASTERN VA. CIGS CURRENTLY AROUND 4000-5000 FT BUT
EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
BEYOND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY THEN OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NW WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
TIDAL RIVERS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE RIVERS, CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- BUILDING SEAS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF SCA OVER THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS SHOWING NNW WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY
AND EASTERN VA RIVERS IN COOL, DRY AIR ADVECTION. WAVES 1-2 FT OVER
THE RIVERS, 2-3 FT OVER THE BAY, WITH SEAS 2-4 FT, HIGHEST SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES IN E/SE SWELL. SEAS REMAIN 3-4FT IN THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS CLOSER TO 4-6 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SCAS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS INTO LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SHARPLY BY FRIDAY AFTN, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COAST, WITH A LIGHT AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPING AFTER 2PM.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES OFFSHORE INTO TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH
POSITION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS
MAINLY SSW OUTSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NEARSHORE
SEABREEZE. PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR BUILDING SEAS IN SSE
SWELL SATURDAY NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634>637-639.
DISCUSSION...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AJZ/MAM
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