440
FXUS61 KAKQ 112338
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
738 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z/12 TAFS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AND HIGHER FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTS TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, TRENDING TO A COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSISTS TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
AREA-WIDE LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
EARLY AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS INDICATED A WNW FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH NOW GETTING SHUNTED FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST AND BAHAMAS. THE LATEST RADAR INDICATES TWO MCSS WITH
ONE CENTERED OVER WV AN THE OTHER UPSTREAM OVER IN.
WITH THE AIRMASS OVERTURNED FROM YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS VA/MD AND THE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS THIS
MORNING, TODAY'S SVR POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTED SIGNIFICANT CIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT ALSO SHOWS CIN ERODING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SUCH, STILL THINK THAT THUNDERSTORMS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
CONVECTION WHICH IS UNSURPRISING GIVEN THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE
MCSS. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM CAMS IS THAT CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY TRACK SE
INTO SW VA THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY SPARING THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
SOLUTION DOES MAKE SENSE GIVEN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR
WHICH SHOWS THE WV MCS DIVING SSE AND A LINE OF STORMS
STRETCHING BETWEEN THAT MCS AND THE STRONGER MCS IN IN. NORMALLY
WHEN THERE IS A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF AN MCS ORIENTED IN A
DIRECTION THAT THE MCS IS MOVING, THE MCS ENDS UP TRACKING ALONG
THAT LINE OF STORMS WHICH GIVES AN INDICATION AS TO WHERE IT
WILL GO. THIS WOULD LINE UP WITH CAMS. HOWEVER, THE STRONGER MCS
IN IN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH OF THE NW/SE ORIENTED LINE OF
STORMS. THEREFORE, WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE MCS ENDS
UP TRACKING ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS (AND LARGELY MISSING THE
LOCAL AREA) OR IF IT ENDS UP TRACKING A BIT NORTH (WHICH COULD
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT). WILL ALSO NOTE THAT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH CLEARING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT (SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY). GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM (30-45%).
SPC HAS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-95 IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH THE REST OF THE AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5). THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS
GIVEN SEASONABLY STRONG SHEAR OF 25-35 KT AND HIGH DCAPE (1000
J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER). IN ADDITION, A
MARGINAL ERO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION (WITH A SLIGHT
NUDGING INTO THE FAR NW). HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE INTERIOR NE NC ZONES ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WHERE
SFC DEW PTS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER, ALONG WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID 90S, LEADING TO HEAT INDICES OF 105+ FOR A FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, TEMPS AND DEW POINTS (ESPECIALLY TEMPS) ARE
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE OVERTURNED AIRMASS AND
LINGERING CLOUDS/STABILITY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CLEARING
OCCURING IN NE NC, WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW IN
CASE CONDITIONS ARE REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100F.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, TRENDING TO A COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO CONTINUE. DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WED. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MCS TIMING
AND IMPACTS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN STORMS HAS DECREASED WITH
ONLY 15-25% POPS. BEYOND WED, THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WITH
HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS THU (35-60% POPS) AND FRI (40-60%
POPS). LOWER STORM CHANCES ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER,
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH FRI WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, PORTIONS OF NE NC COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 105F THU AND FRI. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
CLOUD COVER, DEW POINTS, AND CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z/12 TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY S-SW THIS EVENING, SHIFTING OUT OF THE N-NW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM NEARBY CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY OUT OF THE AREA, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP PROB30S FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES REACH THE TERMINAL, BRIEF DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
06Z/07Z.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THU.
HOWEVER, DAILY LOW-END CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXISTS EACH DAY. ALONG WITH THIS COMES A CHANCE FOR EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AM.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF LOCAL THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ARE
MEASURING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE, 2-3 FT OFFSHORE, WITH ~1 FT
WAVES IN THE CHES BAY (1-2 FT LOWER BAY). THIS SAME REGIME WITH
LIGHTER S-SW WINDS (~10 KTS OR LESS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH SUB-SCA WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. DAILY SEA-
BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH LATE IN THE
WEEK AND MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SHIFT THE WIND TO THE N-NE BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE GENERALLY KEEPING THE
WINDS RATHER LIGHT, BUT IF THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
WATERS, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SCAS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
AT THIS RANGE AND IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS ARE NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT IT.
SEAS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BE ~2 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS, 2-3 FT
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AND 1 FT TO OCCASIONALLY 2FT WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN REGARDS
TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE THREAT EACH DAY. REGARDLESS,
ANY STORM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.
THE RIP RISK THROUGH THURSDAY IS LOW AT ALL BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...HET/NB
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