595  
FXUS61 KAKQ 022055  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
355 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.  
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES  
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN  
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
A TYPICAL EARLY DEC DAY (TEMPERATURE WISE) ACROSS THE FA THIS  
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE REMAINS PLENTIFUL...BUT BKN MAINLY MID-HIGH  
CLOUDS ARE CROSSING THE MTNS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W  
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM (THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING  
INVOF NRN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS  
EVENING...W/ U30S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT...BUT  
L-M40S MORE LIKELY IN MOST PLACES. INITIALLY...THE AIR OVER THE LOCAL  
AREA IS QUITE DRY...SO EXPECTED MOST OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.  
HOWEVER...SHRA CHCS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE SAT MORNING.  
LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE L-M40S (M-U40S RIGHT ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST) EARLY TONIGHT THEN WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SLOWLY  
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
CLOUDS LOWER/THICKEN SAT MORNING W/ SHRAS SPREADING ACROSS THE  
LOCAL AREA FROM W-E AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE  
ARE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT HOW FAST THE PCPN EXITS LATE  
SAT (12Z/02 GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST A BIT)...W/ FOLLOW A BLEND  
OF THE GUIDANCE. POPS TO 60-80%...THOUGH A TAD LOWER INVOF NE  
NC. BREEZY SSW WINDS GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH WILL AID IN BOOSTING  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE L-M60S. TOTAL (AVG) QPF 0.10-0.30".  
 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST SAT EVENING. AREAS W OF I 95  
MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR AROUND SUNSET. OTW...CLEARING WILL HOLD OFF  
UNTIL SAT EVENING/NIGHT W/ WINDS SHIFTING TO NNW (AND BECOMING  
GUSTY...HIGHEST AT THE COAST). COLDER W/ LOWS FROM THE L30S N  
AND W TO THE L40S ALONG COASTAL SE VA-NE NC.  
 
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE COLD  
FRONT (WANING LATE). MAINLY SUNNY W/ HIGHS IN THE U40S N TO THE  
L50S OVER NE NC. NNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT THE COAST SUN  
MORNING THEN LESSEN IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
HI PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...THEN BEGINS  
TO RETREAT OFF THE COAST MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S  
INLAND AND L-M30S ALONG THE COAST. MON WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH  
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE L50S  
N AND NW TO THE U50S IN NE NC.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
RATHER QUICK WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN NEXT  
WEEK...RESULTING IN DIFFICULTY WRT TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANY STORM  
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY  
TUE-FRI...MILDER BY WED THEN POSSIBLY COOLER AGAIN BY FRI. RAIN  
CHCS AVG 30-40% THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
LOWS MON NIGHT FROM THE M30S INLAND TO THE M40S ALONG COASTAL  
SE VA-NE NC. HIGHS TUE IN THE L50S NW TO THE L60S OVER FAR SE  
VA-NE NC. LOWS TUE IN THE 40S CENTRAL/W AND L50S SE. HIGHS WED  
IN THE U50S-L60S N AND W TO THE M60S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE  
40S-AROUND 50F HIGHS THU MAINLY IN THE U50S-L60S. HIGHS FRI  
MAINLY IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1240 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SKC NOW...BUT MID/HIGH  
CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.  
LIKELY-WIDESPREAD SHRAS LOOK TO MOVE IN SAT MORNING THEN  
CONTINUE E SAT AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE  
SHRAS MOVE ACROSS THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SAT NIGHT AND  
CONTINUE SUN INTO MON AS HI PRES RETURNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
REGION. LO PRES FROM THE WILL BE TRACKING CLOSER TUE...POTENTIALLY  
RESULTING IN SHRAS AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TUE INTO WED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 400 PM EST FRIDAY...  
 
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED  
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT  
EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT THE SOUTHEAST TO  
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 10 - 15  
KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT IS  
PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL  
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING.  
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, EXPECT THE WINDS TO TURN SW TONIGHT  
AND SATURDAY AND INCREASE IN SPEED, 15 TO 25 KT, AS A STRONG  
LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 - 50 KT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY  
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN  
COASTAL ZONES, SO HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING  
SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF  
TIME WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEFORE THE COLD  
AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF  
HIGH PRESSURE. SO WITH THE TIME IN THE LAG OF THE SCA CONDITIONS  
BEING SMALL HAVE JUST ELECTED TO KEEP THE SCA IN PLACE FOR  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NOW ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES SHOULD SEE  
WINDS PICK UP, 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUST TO 30 KT, ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE BAY AND OCEAN WATERS. SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL  
ZONES AND CURRITUCK SOUND HAVE INTRODUCE A SCA FOR SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THE RIVERS  
TO THE ADVISORY, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO  
EXPAND THE SCA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY FOR THOSE  
ZONES AS WELL.  
 
ONCE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS CENTERED OVER THE AREA  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE WINDS DROP OFF AND THE  
SEAS ALSO BEGIN CALM. SO HAVE ENDED THE SCA AT 18Z SUN. WITH THE  
HIGH SLIDING OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WILL SEE WIND TURN BACK TO  
THE SE, BUT SHOULD STAY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY  
FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY  
FOR ANZ633.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY  
FOR ANZ654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CP/ERI  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...ALB  
LONG TERM...ALB  
AVIATION...ALB  
MARINE...ESS  
 
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