586
FXUS61 KAKQ 092334
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MAX HEAT INDICES HAVE TRENDED DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE.
2) HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY-FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
3) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING DRIER,
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED OFFSHORE THIS AFTN, WITH A LOT
OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S WELL INLAND, WITH 70S
NEAR THE COAST. DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE 50S, WITH A FEW LOWER 60S
INTO THE PIEDMONT AND ACROSS NE NC. PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING,
WITH INCREASING (AND LOWERING) CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM W TO E.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-12Z ACROSS
MAINLY N/NW PORTIONS OF THE FA AS LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES, ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEW PTS. HAVE POPS TO
30-40% NW OF RIC PRIOR TO 12Z, BUT ELSEWHERE, EXPECT ONLY A
MINIMAL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. ON WED, THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA REMAINS
IN A MARGINAL SVR RISK AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW MODESTLY INCREASES
(GREATEST TO THE NORTH). A LOT OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AM HOURS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLEARING INTO THE AFTN. THE AFTN/EVENING SCENARIO IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS, ML CAPE VALUES WOULD
RISE TO ~1000 J/KG, AND WOULD HELP SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL RISE IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH DEW
PTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
TODAY'S DRY AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY-FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THU-FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IMPINGING ON
THE MID-ATLANTIC, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND SPARK MAINLY DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
MODESTLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON BUT CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LEND SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO TICK UP LATE THIS WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE 100-
105 RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON COVERAGE AND TIMING
OF ANY CONVECTION OR THICKER CLOUD COVER. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FRIDAY HAS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING DEW PTS MIX DOWN INTO THE
60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING
DRIER, AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH/LOW GRADUALLY DRIFTS E-SE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TOWARDS
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM, THE WIND SHIFT TO N-NE SHOULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT THE COAST, ALONG
WITH LOWER DEW PTS AREA-WIDE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SHOW THE
PWAT ANOMALIES DROPPING TO BELOW 100% OR NORMAL BEFORE A MODEST
RETURN FLOW STARTS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT. WILL STILL HAVE A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, MAINLY SE,
FOR SATURDAY, AND 15-30% POPS SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL STAY
IN THE LOW 90S INLAND, WITH MID-UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST, ALONG
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED TONIGHT, THOUGH BKN-OVC
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. CLOSER TO 12Z, SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR LOWERING CIGS AS A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE W.
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
(AND SHOWERS), BUT EPISODIC MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT
AND POTENTIALLY NEAR RIC IN THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME. MORNING SHOWERS
WOULD GENERALLY BE FAVORED AT RIC AND SBY BEFORE A LULL ARRIVES
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS, IS POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS AT SBY, RIC, AND PHF FOR
LOCALLY REDUCED VSBY, GENERALLY AFTER 21Z. WINDS AVERAGE 5-10 KT
OUT OF THE S/SSE TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SW WITH GUSTS TO ~20
KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THU-FRI, BUT WITH A CHC OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NW
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
CONTINUING SE (WITH LOWER COVERAGE TO THE N FOR THE WEEKEND).
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVERHEAD THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTING
OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15
KT AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A SCA FOR THE CHES. BAY TONIGHT
AS LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30-
40% AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TENDS TO UNDER-PERFORM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AT 10-15 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT BY THE EVENING. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE AROUND
50-60% FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL ADDITIONALLY BUILD
TO 4-5 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ON THE MORE MARGINAL
SIDE, SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE ELEVATED WINDS, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
(OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION) WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES. WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
NORTHERN BEACHES AND A LOW RISK AT THE SOUTHERN BEACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 98 (1911) 99 (1986)
- RIC: 97 (1984) 100 (1914)
- SBY: 96 (1914) 98 (1914)
- ECG: 99 (1947) 97 (1947)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPERATURES:
- DATE: THU 6/11 FRI 6/12
- ORF: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
- RIC: 75 (1914) 74 (1986)
- SBY: 73 (2013) 75 (1947)
- ECG: 75 (2020) 76 (2016)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...KMC
CLIMATE...LKB
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