258
FXUS61 KAKQ 241839
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
239 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A MILD AND LESS HUMID DAY TODAY, A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TAKES HOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY.
2) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER A MILD AND LESS HUMID DAY TODAY, A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TAKES HOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR EAST, WITH A
LIGHT NW WIND AND A MILD/LESS HUMID AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. DRY AND
MILD TODAY WITH MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE SE-S. A WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. DRY WX
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE EVEN
WARMER (LOW-MID 90S) ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW.
HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F ARE POSSIBLE IN SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER, AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH
ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION POTENTIALLY SPREADING SE DURING THE
EARLY PART OF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIURNAL WEAKENING OCCURS. WITH THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGHLY
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM THE W TO NW OVER THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY, WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY AND
CONFINED MORE TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. REMAINING HOT AND
HUMID ON SATURDAY WITH 100-105F HEAT INDICES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE
NC. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY, MONDAY,SRN AND
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. DRY WX RETURNS SUN NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FEW- SCT
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND VERY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NW-NE WINDS AOB 10 KT BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE S-SE
THIS EVENING- TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
S-SW AT 5 TO 10 KT TOMORROW MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY PM-FRIDAY AM.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ALLOWING FOR SCA
HEADLINES TO DROP ACROSS THE BAY THIS MORNING.
- BENIGN, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WEEK ASIDE FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE ON THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY THAT MAY BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST
THE BAY.
THE LOW THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY WEATHER HAS NOW MOVED WELL OFFSHORE
AND THE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS DRAPED ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH CAA HAVING HELPED ELEVATE WINDS FURTHER ACROSS THE BAY LAST
NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 10-15 KTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, SO ALL SCA HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE OVER PERFORMED SOME IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, NEARING THE 5 FT SCA CRITERIA, BUT WITH THE EXPECTED
DECREASE IN WINDS, SEAS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE SOME, SO NO
ADDITIONAL HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, LEADING TO BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BAY, AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. WINDS START TO
RELAX ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE LACK OF SHORE-
NORMAL FLOW, AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/AGK/ERI
MARINE...NB
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