195
FXUS61 KAKQ 150952
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
552 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING FOR MORNING SHOWERS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER AND LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS.
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY COLD FRONT HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LATER, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LINGERING WELL INTO SATURDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE COAST.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
2) WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. SATELLITE SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION. RADAR
SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS IN THE PIEDMONT BUT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALLOWS FOR CAD TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
BECOMING A BIT BREEZY NEAR THE COAST TODAY. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHAVING A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS BACKDOOR FRONT. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S N, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG S OF I-64, AND UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S NEAR AND S OF THE VA/NC BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN
THE MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH TEMPS HOLDING
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THEREAFTER AS CAD STRENGTHENS. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NW AND N THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH 0.1-
0.15" ACROSS THE NORTH, TAPERING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR RICHMOND
AND LITTLE TO NOTHING SOUTH OF US-460. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN
SHORE. LOW TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID/UPPER 60S
SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY'S FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY,
SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE CAD AIRMASS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND STRENGTHENS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID AND EVEN UPPER 80S WITH
BREEZY SW WINDS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUING TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION
OF THE STRONG FRONT. POPS INCREASE AFTER SUNSET, ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SURGING COLD FRONT. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIN
STRONGLY-FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.
WITH THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, EVEN LESS INSTABILITY IS
AVAILABLE THAN IT LOOKED 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, STRONG KINEMATICS
ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS
30-40 MPH POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) ACROSS THE THE N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE SE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE THE
MOST BULLISH, DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND COASTAL SURFACE LOW
WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS
BIMODAL SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID
50S NW TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE. RAINFALL CHANCES AND PLACEMENT ARE
WHERE THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS WOULD
RESULT IN RAINFALL CONTINUING ON SATURDAY AND LINGERING POTENTIALLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. HAVE TRENDED
POPS AND QPF TOWARD THE COASTAL LOW SCENARIO BUT WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK BUT WITH MORE WIND LIKELY TO DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST, EVEN IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER PIEDMONT SPOTS.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 550 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS START THE 12Z/15 TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ARE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND THICKEN/LOWER TOWARD
SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT RIC AROUND 15Z, SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST TO PHF, ORF, AND ECG IN THE 16-17Z TIMEFRAME. SBY SEES
MVFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAINFALL. RIC WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE SOME RAIN BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE. THE REMAINING TERMINALS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY MOSTLY DRY BUT A SHOWER OR TWO MAY IMPACT PHF.
WINDS BECOME NE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT INLAND AND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT AT PHF AND ORF BY MID MORNING.
LOWER-END MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH IFR THRESHOLDS
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR FORECAST TONIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT
STARTS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY,
ALLOWING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. DETERIORATING FLYING
CONDITIONS RETURN LATER FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT EVENING AS A
SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES AND GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY E.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N
OF CAPE CHARLES AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- A LONGER-DURATION WIND EVENT IS LIKELY ALONG AND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY
LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. NNW WINDS WILL LIKELY
FREQUENTLY GUST OVER 34 KT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT HASN'T QUITE MADE IT TO THE LOCAL WATERS AS ~3AM OBS.
OBS STILL SHOW WSW WINDS AROUND 10KT, SEAS AROUND 2FT, AND WAVES IN
THE BAY AROUND 1FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM N TO S BETWEEN THIS WRITING AND ~8/9AM. THESE WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AND NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 15-20KT. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND MID-MORNING WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND IN THE LOWER CHES. BAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE AND ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES, THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND THE LOWER BAY. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BECOMING EASTERLY. SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN
RETURNS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
SSW FLOW RAMPS UP TO 15-20KT AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FRONT. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE STILL-WARM WATERS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN AT LEAST STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WITH CONFIDENCE
IN GALE-FORCE GUSTS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO
25-30KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40KT.
LOCAL WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO SHOW 70-90% FOR 34KT+ GUSTS FOR MUCH OF
THE CHES BAY AND ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES
FOR SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE NE AND REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE STRONG
SCA RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL JUST A BIT EARLY FOR GALE
WATCHES, BUT THEY WILL LIKELY BE GOING UP SOON. SEAS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND COULD POSSIBLY EXCEED 6-9 FT.
UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASED PAST EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH, NOW THAT THE
POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
BY GUIDANCE. THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD IN THE STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW, WHICH OF COURSE HAS A LARGE
IMPACT ON THE WINDS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD WINDS DROPPING OFF
QUICKLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION OF
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, ONSHORE FLOW
OF SOME SORT LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, SO ELEVATED
SEAS WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE TO COME DOWN TO BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
634-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AC
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