988
FXUS61 KAKQ 262338
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
738 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC AND S CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT MOVING SW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FRONT DOESN'T HAVE A WIND SHIFT BUT DOES MARK THE EDGE OF
A LINE OF CU WITH GUSTY ENE WINDS BEHIND IT UP TO 20-25 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC AND S CENTRAL VA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ZONAL
FLOW EXISTS ACROSS NC INTO S VA WHICH WILL HELP PUSH MOISTURE
(ALOFT) INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE NC
COAST THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES INTERACT, THEY WILL
AID IN ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS S CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW (40-54% POPS) BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY
POPS IF RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT IT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, LOCALLY 0.5-
1.0"+ IS POSSIBLE IF STORMS BECOME STATIONARY (BEST CHANCE IS S VA
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR). WILL NOTE THAT A SMALL AREA IN SW
LUNENBURG COUNTY HAS ALREADY SEEN THIS MUCH RAIN TODAY. CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING N.
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID
80S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY AND CLEARING LATE (ACROSS THE N). RECENT CAM TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A BAND OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT PIVOTING ACROSS S
AND SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC AND SE VA OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S N TO THE LOWER 70S S WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
-DRY AND PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S (SOME AREAS MAY REACH 90F SUN), AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S (POSSIBLY UPPER 50S LOCALLY) INLAND, AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. FOR LATE JULY, THAT'S ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND (UPPER 50S LOCALLY) AND
MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ALONG THE COAST. SUN NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE
WARMER AS S WINDS ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F (LOCALLY MID 60S).
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
NEW ENGLAND MON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM THE W (BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO). THIS
PLACES THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND THEREFORE
PROVIDES LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST. S WINDS
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT
CAPE. THAT BEING SAID, N/NNW WINDS AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE ~30
KT AT 500MB IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHES BAY MON AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON TIMING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOR
NOW HAVE 20-30% POPS MON AFTERNOON AND 30-35% POPS MON
EVENING/NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 80S S AND UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F N ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MID WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED
BY LATE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT MOVING TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY LATE WEEK. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE TUE
(60% W TO 30% E) AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS TUE IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST, ALTHOUGH LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
FOR AREAS IF CONVECTION MOVES IN EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE,
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH POPS GENERALLY 30-45% EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F
WED, LOWER 90S THU, AND LOW-MID 90S FRI. LOWS REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 70S EACH NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY HEAT INDICES RISE ABOVE 100F BY THU
WITH 100-105F POSSIBLE FRI.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY TO THE W-SW OF KECG. MAINLY VFR
CIGS THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT KECG/KORF, BEFORE
DRYING/IMPROVING TO VFR BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG W OF KRIC LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THAT MAY
OCCUR LATE. WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT INLAND AND ENE 5 KT
ALONG THE COAST. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT SAT.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW NE GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
- GENERALLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
SATURDAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK.
NE WINDS ARE SLOWLY COMING DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING. MOST PLACES NOW LESS THAN 15 KT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ESPECIALLY AT THE ELEVATED SITES. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT, EXPECT THE NE WINDS TO
CONTINUE WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS. E-NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE ON SATURDAY
(HIGHEST WINDS LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS) BEFORE THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN
SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. SUMMERLIKE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KT.
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE BAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE NE FLOW AND SURF UP TO 3 FT. NORTHERN WATERS
WILL REMAIN LOW ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVES ONLY
AROUND 2 FT. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...MAM/RMM
MARINE...MRD
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