624
FXUS61 KAKQ 210942
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
542 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER DURING THE DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT.
ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES EXPANDED IN AREA AND TIME. A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH MAINLY
FOR THE AREA SURROUNDING THE LYNNHAVEN INLET TIDAL GAUGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
2) PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ELEVATED TIDE
CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 540 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, CENTERED
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND SE CANADA. MEANWHILE, A
COASTAL LOW LINGERS WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPS AS OF 540 AM RANGED
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
FARTHER EAST THAN MODELS INDICATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS
SUCH, IT IS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT THE LOW WILL NUDGE BACK
WEST AT THIS POINT INTO HIGH PRESSURE. NEVERTHELESS, MODELS
STILL TRY TO SHOW THE LOW NUDGING A BIT WEST TODAY WHILE
DEEPENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE KEPT THE OUTER CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE LOW REACHING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK
OVER THE OCEAN AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, EVEN THIS
MAY BE OVERDONE AND IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ONLY A PORTION
OF THE EASTERN SHORE SEES ANY CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY REMAINING SUNNY. GIVEN THE
TREND FOR SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY, TEMPS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE COAST AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
SHORE AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS MAY EVEN REACH 70F IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THU WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN FACT, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70F. HOWEVER, AS THE COOL, STRONG HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST FRI AND SAT (POTENTIALLY UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE AND MID 60S ACROSS NE NC). TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BY SUN AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MON AND
TUE. MEANWHILE, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NEAR I-95 TO THE LOWER
40S EAST OF I-95 AND AROUND 50F ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. AS SUCH, SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES DON'T LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH THE HIGH
CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND TYPICALLY COOLER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK AND S/SE VA. CURRENTLY HAVE
LOWS THAT NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, UPPER 30S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FAR FROM THE COAST, 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST,
AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOUISA GETS DOWN TO AROUND 32-33F. AS SUCH
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE FROST ADVISORIES ARE WARRANTED.
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN BREEZY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH
DAY THROUGH FRI WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH TODAY AND 20-25 MPH THU
AN FRI. INLAND WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY, HOWEVER, GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL
FLOODING.
THE ETSS, PETSS AND STOFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ANOMALIES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH 2-3 FT ANOMALIES EXPECTED. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE SITES MORE PRONE TO FLOODING (LYNNHAVEN,
SMITHFIELD, BAYFORD, ETC.) TO TOUCH MODERATE FLOODING DURING THE
HIGH TIDES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN
THURSDAY AM. THE ONLY LOCATION WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
WARNING IS LYNNHAVEN, MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SWELL AT THE
MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY LIKELY AIDING IN THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOO HIGH FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT
SO FAR AND THE CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE TO ISSUE ANY
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXTENDED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OUT ANOTHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND NOW
HAVE MOST OF THEM RUNNING THROUGH LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE
YORK AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS.
THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND ALSO THE WATER LEVELS,
EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER BAY WHERE WATER LEVELS LIKELY RISE AS SOME
WATER GETS TRAPPED IN THE BAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FLOOD
TIDES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY OWING TO THE WEAKER WINDS. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR OUR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
LOCATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION, BISHOPS HEAD AND
TANGIER ISLAND MAY BOTH APPROACH OR EXCEED MODERATE FLOOD STAGE,
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL DURING THE THURSDAY AM HIGH TIDE CYCLE,
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 540 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY REACHING SBY, ORF, AND PHF WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT SBY. IF THE CLOUDS DO PUSH FAR ENOUGH INLAND,
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS REACHES SBY AS WELL. HOWEVER, CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR EVEN IN THAT SCENARIO. OTHERWISE, N
WINDS WERE LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ORF AND ECG
REPORTING WINDS ABOVE 5 KT (BOTH REPORTING 10 KT WINDS). WINDS
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
AREA-WIDE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COAST WITH ORF AND ECG
LIKELY A FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN INLAND TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME BREEZY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT EACH
NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE, ALL GALE HEADLINES ARE STILL ON TRACK
TO END TONIGHT. GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
PARRAMORE ISLAND HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 7 TO 10 FEET.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHER AND
WEST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, ~999 MB LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SPIN WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. NNE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING, ~15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ~15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. GALE WARNINGS FOR THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND HAVE BEEN DROPPED
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, THOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS RIGHT AT 20 NM. GALE WARNINGS
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND ALL OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOWER JAMES THROUGH
TODAY AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING WITH THE LOW STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE. BY
TONIGHT, GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND HELPING TO PUSH THE SURFACE LOW AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE GUSTS TO COME
TO AN END. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
SO, WHILE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
IN REGARDS TO SEAS/WAVES, HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE WITH WAVES OF 7 TO
16 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 11-14 SEC. SEAS IN THE
BAY GENERALLY RANGE 2 TO 5 FEET (HIGHER AT THE MOUTH). EXPECT THESE
WAVES TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SATURDAY. STILL WITH THE NE WINDS, EXPECT 5 TO 8 FT SEAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS/ENTRANCE TO THE BAY AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE BAY ITSELF
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DESPITE THE WEAKENING WIND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-097-524-525-528>531.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ083-084-
518-520-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ684-686-688.
DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM/MRD
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/MRD
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