764
FXUS61 KAKQ 271024
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES/UPDATED DISCUSSIONS
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL (BUT
STILL SEASONABLE) TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 331 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL (BUT
STILL SEASONABLE) TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL PA WHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTH A 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE
SITS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DECOUPLING.
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WITH SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 30S IN THE LOCALIZED COOLER AREAS. WITH RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND THE WEAK GRADIENT TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT
OF PA AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE N-NE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS FORECASTED ALONG THE
COAST. THE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THE BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STAY
NEAR-NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL THEN EVENTUALLY ANCHOR OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, SSW WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO POTENTIALLY
REACH THE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
WEEKEND, AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING CENTRAL CANADA
WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER PATTERN. HALLOWEEN CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY
PLEASANT, AND MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT ALLOWING FOR OPTIMAL TRICK-OR-TREATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. LOOKING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE PATTERN TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. THE LATEST 00Z/27
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT ON A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NOVEMBER. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THE
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN HEAVY DISAGREEMENT ON AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
THE EURO, CANADIAN, AND EURO-AI ENSEMBLES HAVE ROUGHLY 40-60% OF
RAINFALL GREATER THAN .1" WHILE THE GEFS IS THE HIGHEST WITH 80-90%.
WITH THE DISAGREEMENT THIS IS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 624 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z/27 TAF PERIOD. WILL NOTE THAT
PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED AROUND NE NC, HOWEVER, IMPACTS
LOOK MINIMAL. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER MORNING TO 5-10 KT AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUE, AND SETTLES
OFF TO OUR NE WED. WINDS SHIFT TO THE E AT 5-10 KT WED. OTHER
THAN SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AM FOG, DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 350 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
N. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE CHARLES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS,
WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N-NE. EXPECT A
MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SCA. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT IN THE BAY/LOWER JAMES LATER
TODAY (UP TO 3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). SEAS ARE ~4 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND 2-3 FT TO THE NORTH. AS
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS,
THE ELEVATED E-NE WINDS MAY PUSH NEARSHORE SEAS TO ~5 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. FOR NOW, THIS IS A MARGINAL SCA
EVENT AT BEST SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF SCAS
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING
OFF TO 2-3 FT FOR MOST ZONES (3-4 FT IN NC WATERS). WAVES IN THE
BAY WILL DROP OFF TO 1-2 FT OR LESS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...JDM/LKB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page