983
FXUS61 KAKQ 211542
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1042 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING COOLER
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS
WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA TODAY.
- COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS JUST WEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE SO HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST DEW POINTS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE 15-20% RANGE IN THE PIEDMONT. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS/RH IN CHECK SOMEWHAT. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND FORESTRY OFFICIALS, HAVE OPTED TO NOT
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER SPS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SHORT
DAYLIGHT ON THE SOLSTICE. WINDS BECOME NW ~10 MPH INLAND AND
10-15 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH INLAND AND 20-25 MPH ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS CLEAR WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND TONIGHT AS
A STRONG (~1038MB) AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM WINDS INLAND, A FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S INLAND.
LOWS REMAIN MILDER ALONG THE COAST (LOWER 30S) GIVEN WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED. WILL NOTE THAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS END UP COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWER 20S AND PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOLER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD ON MON, ALLOWING FOR A COOL
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE (LOWER 40S NE TO UPPER 40S SW).
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA TUE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY LOW (30-40% POPS EXCEPT 40-50%
ALONG THE COAST). CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING
IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAT PRECIP WILL
REMAIN ALL RAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING (NBM HAS
LOWS AROUND 32-33F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND 28-32F ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA), HOWEVER, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY
PRECIP FALLS. ANY RAIN ENDS BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 50S NE TO AROUND 60F SW (MOST IN THE MID-UPPER 50S).
CLOUDS CLEAR TUE NIGHT WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70F POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES ALLOWS FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WED INTO WED NIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING IN THE 30S FOR MOST
(COOLEST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA). HOWEVER, TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN
SHORE CHRISTMAS DAY. FRI, DEC 26 WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST OF THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPS THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHS ON FRI RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70F POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER
WEATHER, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE APART FROM A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THU AND FRI WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON FRI (30-40% POPS).
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 600 AM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SW 5-10 KT WINDS BECOME NW 8-15 KT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON (BEGINNING AROUND 15-16Z),
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE INLAND AND UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE
AT SBY. WINDS BECOME N THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS (~5 KT)
INLAND AND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AT ORF
AND PERHAPS ECG AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE, CIRRUS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CIGS POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
(POSSIBLY A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY AT THE ONSET) LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WEDNESDAY WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CHRISTMAS
DAY.
MARINE
AS OF 650 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, AND GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
FOR REMAINING OCEAN ZONES, BAY ZONES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
- DIMINISHING WINDS LATER MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE, THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF (MARGINAL) SCAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WNW. SW WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS W/ SEAS 4-5
FT. ELSEWHERE, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH W-SW WINDS 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND,
WITH WAVES IN THE BAY ~2 FT.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE W-NW, BUT AS COLD ADVECTION LAGS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY
SEVERAL HOURS SO WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH LATE
AFTN. BY THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, AS WELL AS THE CURRITUCK
SOUND (N-NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS). THE WINDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A BIT COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, SO DID NOT RAISE HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS
GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL EVENT. WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO MAKE THE
FINAL CALL. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT (5-7 FT IN NE NC) AND
LINGER ABOVE 5 FT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WAVES IN THE BAY INCREASE
TO 3-4 FT DURING THE SAME PERIOD WITH 3-5 FT WAVES POSSIBLE
BRIEFLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WATERS TUESDAY IN W-SW WINDS, AND THEN
POSSIBLY TUE NIGHT/WED AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/RHR
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