853
FXUS61 KAKQ 170934
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
534 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS START TODAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN LOOKS
LIKELY AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 311 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARM WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
START TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN ANOTHER COOL
DOWN LOOKS LIKELY AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SKY'S REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 90S IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IN ADDITION, A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OUT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
CWA (LOUISA AND FLUVANNA, PRIMARILY) IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK FORCING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
BY FRIDAY, THE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. CAMS
CONTINUE TO HINT ON PRE AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SW
HALF OF THE AREA. WILL NOTE, QPF WITH THESE POSSIBLE SHOWERS LOOK TO
BE MINIMAL (0.1 TO 0.25"). IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS, WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO POSSIBLE 90F SOUTH. MOSTLY DRY AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. THE FRONT LIKELY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS A DECENT SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT FROM THE EURO, CANADIAN, & GFS ENSEMBLES. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY ON A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE, THIS ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER ITSELF OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LOOKING AT PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH THE POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH, THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ONSHORE
FLOW LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 533 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AT THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES ACROSS VA AND NC CONTINUE TO
REMAIN CLEAR. WHILE FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE A THICK MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN NOTED PUSHING FROM THE NE. THESE CLOUDS ARE
BETWEEN 6000-8000FT ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EVEN IF
THEY MOVE OVER SBY. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EVERYWHERE. THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SSW (5-10KT).
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
THU NIGHT. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A QUICKER COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. AS SUCH, LOWER CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF
ANY LOCALIZED GROUND FOG.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, WITH ELEVATED NE TO E WINDS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SEVERAL DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SCAS OR GALES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2-3 FT IN NC, AND
GENERALLY ~2 FT ELSEWHERE (WAVES 1 FT OR LESS IN THE BAY,
RIVERS/SOUND). LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT, S-SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AFTERNOON MODELS HAVE TRENDED QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON FRIDAY, NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME N-NW
AND AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
TO OUR NORTH. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
SITES ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, BUT
LIKELY NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCAS. IN ADDITION, LOCAL
WIND PROBS FOR SCA CONDITIONS ARE ONLY HOVERING AROUND 10 TO 15%
(MAX). AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, WINDS BECOME E-NE AND REMAIN
ELEVATED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND DECREASE.
BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO SUPPORT
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE MARINE SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA, AS STRONG
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA (NORMALIZED
ANOMALIES ARE >2 STD DEV FOR THE SFC HIGH), WITH LOW PRESSURE
LINGERING OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT
THERE IS QUITE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE EURO, GFS, AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES IN THIS PATTERN. AT LEAST STRONG SCAS APPEAR
PROBABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH A DECENT CHANCE AT GALES, SO
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS THIS GETS CLOSER IN
TIME.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE FOR THE NC BEACHES TODAY
WHERE SEAS ~2.5 FT LINGER W/ ~8 SEC. PERIODS, BUT LOW ELSEWHERE
AS THE SWELL BECOMES MORE FROM THE SE AND SEAS ARE ~2 FT. A LOW
RISK IS FORECAST FRIDAY, WITH A MODERATE FOR SATURDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/RHR
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJB/LKB
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