237
FXUS61 KAKQ 090703
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN MEANINGFUL RAIN FALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOISTURE AT THE UPPER LEVELS IS STREAMING NORTH AND EAST FROM
HURRICANE ISAIAS EARLY THIS MORNING, LEADING TO A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
DECK SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. TODAY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE DESPITE
THE CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. COOLER TOMORROW AS
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR MOST AND IN THE MID 60S
CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL NOTE THAT STATISTICAL MODELS
INDICATE TEMPS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL VA AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND HAS HELD FAIRLY
STEADY SINCE YESTERDAY. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AND THEN PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS
ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL AND MERGES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN VICINITY OF
THE MID-SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING HAS INCREASED SOME AS THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL, SHOWING THE 06-12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES AOB 200% OF NORMAL ALONG WITH A PLUME OF
MINOR INSTABILITY (<500 J/KG) SURGING N AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AREAS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THERE IS A HINT IN THE GUIDANCE
OF MORE ENHANCED RAINFALL ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. THE PRESENCE OF A
COASTAL TROUGH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A BAND OF DRIER AIR SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A LARGE SPREAD IN
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SPREAD BETWEEN THE
10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE QPF IN THE 00Z/09 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BUT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY TRENDED UP AGAIN. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES NOW SHOW A
10TH PERCENTILE (REASONABLE LOW END) QPF OF OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND ~0.75" ELSEWHERE AND A 90TH PERCENTILE (REASONABLE HIGH
END) OF A WIDESPREAD 2-4" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UPWARDS OF 5". LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE WPC QPF, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN AMOUNTS FROM THE
MODELS. THIS YIELDED 2-3" IN THE SOUTHEAST, AROUND 2" IN
LOUISA/FLUVANNA, AND AROUND 1.5" IN BETWEEN WHERE THAT POSSIBLE DRY
SLOT COULD SET UP.
THE COASTAL TROUGH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST AN IN SITU
WEDGE RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
SUNDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE LINGERING POPS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN
LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/09 TAF PERIOD. BKN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD OFF
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY VERY LIGHT N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM AN AFTERNOON INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO 5-10KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
- A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS TRACK THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION ON SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT (~5 KT) WITH WAVES 1 FT IN THE
BAY AND SEAS 1-3 FT OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS, MAINLY BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH N WINDS BECOMING NE
10-15 KT BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN 2-3 FT RANGE THROUGH
MOST OF SATURDAY. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BE 1-2 FT.
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL GULF
EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT MOVEMENT IS NE BUT THE CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO TURN N THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A GULF COAST
LANDFALL THIS EVENING. WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
LOCALLY, THE INTERACTION OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO INCREASED E-SE FLOW FROM
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER FOR WINDS LOCALLY
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ENE FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA HEADLINES LIKELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. SCA CONDITIONS WILL
EXPAND TO ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING, CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO
50-60% FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCHES WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE GIVEN THAT IT APPEARS GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL ONLY LAST 3-6
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, LIFTING
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM E-SE AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WAVES IN THE BAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY (HIGHEST S)
BEFORE RELAXING TO 2-3 FT EARLY MONDAY AM. SEAS OFFSHORE
INCREASE TO 6-8 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-10 FT IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES.
5+ FT SEAS AND SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A STRONGER FRONT
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THIS SECOND FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
MIDWEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/RHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page