019
FXUS61 KAKQ 060539
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY THIS WEEK.
2) MOISTURE DOES NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY THIS WEEK.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT TO SEA AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
MUCH SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED INSOLATION HAS IMPACTED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT WITH LOUISA AND FARMVILLE CURRENTLY IN
THE UPPER 70S WHILE AREAS NEAR AND SE OF RICHMOND REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A LIMITED WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING IS
POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL FALL SHORT OF THE MID 70S.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE NW AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT INLAND BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY NEAR THE COAST AS THE COOLER/DRIER AIR INTERACTS WITH
THE WARM LOCAL WATERS. LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND BUT LINGER IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST AND INTO NE NC.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S DESPITE FULL (OR NEARLY FULL) SUNSHINE. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON (SO FAR)
WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
REMAINING DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION. HIGHS FOR
INLAND AREAS REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY (LOW 70S NEAR THE
COAST) WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FORECAST ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER DRY
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOISTURE DOES NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF
AND THEN PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO
DETAILS. HOWEVER, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW PW VALUES
RISING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE 700-300MB
LAYER. GIVEN THIS, A CHC FOR SHOWERS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AS OF 06Z BEHIND A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING S ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND POSSIBLE AT ECG THROUGH 08-09Z, OR
PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING CALM TO VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ORF AND ECG WILL LIKELY
HAVE A PERIOD OF A 10-15KT NNE WIND THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT CHC FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT AND 3-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AS WEAK CAA CONTINUES BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PROGGED TO BUILD E/SE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SECONDARY, STRONGER CAA SURGE OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. FORECAST THINKING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE A COUPLE KNOTS HIGHER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE FOR WINDS GIVEN THE CAA OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 18-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN, WITH
PEAK WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 10 PM-6 AM. FREQUENT 20-25 KT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER. EVEN THOUGH WIND GUSTS MAY NOT QUITE REACH
CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN, CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS IS HIGH SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION, SO HAVE ADDED SCAS
FOR THESE ZONES. WAVES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE (W/ GUSTS TO 20
KT) ELSEWHERE ON THE UPPER RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND. NORTHERLY
WINDS QUICKLY DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NW. SUB-SCA WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A DRY AND
WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS THE WINDS BACK TO THE N FRIDAY. LIMITED COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS DECREASE TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN HOVER AROUND 2 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-639-656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI
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