965  
FXUS61 KAKQ 151654  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1154 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RAINFALL PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT  
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. BECOMING WINDY WITH A CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT  
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE MIDWEEK  
TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1155 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
THE AREA.  
 
- TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES  
SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, BRINGING  
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.  
 
1034MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST AT MIDDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MS  
VALLEY, WITH A COASTAL TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT EXTENDING FROM  
HATTERAS SOUTH TO THE GA/FL BORDER. ALOFT, FLOW IS IN THE  
PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE EASTERN-  
THIRD OF THE NATION TO MORE DEEP- LAYERED SW FLOW CURRENTLY  
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH OUT  
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION  
TOWARD W TX. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING A PLUME OF ANOMALOUSLY  
HIGH PW AIR EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST. 12Z SOUNDINGS  
ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE MID- SOUTH AVERAGED  
1-1.50" (~150-200% OF NORMAL AND NEAR DAILY MAXES FOR MID-FEB).  
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING  
AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT.  
 
A CLOUDY, CHILLY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, AS THE LOWER-  
MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE  
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE, THE COASTAL FRONT  
WILL SLOWLY GET DRAWN NNW THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT. REGIONAL  
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE  
PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO AND EASTERN TN RIVER VALLEYS AT MIDDAY.  
ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING (295-300K SFCS) INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON  
AND THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN  
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1AM  
TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE 1-1.25" OF  
QPF IS FORECAST. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TOTALS RAMP DOWN TO 0.75  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-460 AND 0.25" SOUTH OF US 58 FROM  
FRANKLIN TO VA BEACH INTO ADJACENT NE NC. NOT EXPECTING  
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE  
GIVEN HOW WET MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS.  
WPC HAS INCLUDED THE THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER  
OUR FAR W-NW PIEDMONT AREAS THAT WILL BE STUCK IN THE STRENGTHENING  
IN-SITU CAD, WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY RAINFALL THAT INITIALLY  
EVAPORATES INTO THE DRY/COOL AIRMASS, WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY  
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SE, THE COASTAL FRONT  
WILL ADVECT SSE MARINE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH  
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A  
RESULT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MUCH NON-DIURNAL. "OVERNIGHT  
LOWS" ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING  
THEREAFTER. EXPECTING A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA  
LATE TONIGHT WITH PRECIP CHARACTER BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN  
NATURE VICE STRATIFORM, AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR  
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 355 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
 
- VERY BREEZY TO WINDY SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE  
INFLUENCES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED  
ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING  
PRECIP TO AN END WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST  
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO RAPIDLY  
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW  
ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE DEEPER MIXING IS  
FAVORED. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-45  
MPH (LOWEST NW AND HIGHEST SE) SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE  
SURFACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE  
SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOW 60S NW TO MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70  
DEGREES SE. RECENT VERY WET CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG  
GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.  
VERY IMPRESSIVE KINEMATICS ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF  
THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR  
ROBUST/DEEP CONVECTION BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND  
SOME SURFACE HEATING COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE WIND  
THREAT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPC HAS  
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA (ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM PRINCE EDWARD  
COUNTY NE TO CAROLINE COUNTY) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
STORMS SUNDAY. WPC HAS KEPT MOST OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES  
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BRINGING  
AN END TO ANY SEVERE THREAT. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE  
SUNDAY EVENING, REMAINING BREEZY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS  
COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. LOWS OVERNIGHT TUMBLE BACK INTO THE  
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY LEADING  
TO RETURN OF COOL/DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM  
THE LOW-MID 40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S SE. COLD AND DRY MONDAY  
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND WITH UPPER  
20S TO LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 355 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
-WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE COLD NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW  
BECOMES CUTOFF OVER EASTERN CANADA, WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
SLIDING SE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST. ALL OF THE  
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS ARE SHOWING CHANCES FOR A WINTER STORM (POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT) IMPACTING MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEDNESDAY-  
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST  
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF  
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE  
GENERAL TREND TO TOWARD A MORE NORTHWESTERLY LOW TRACK WHICH  
WILL RESULT IN MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.  
THE ECMWF/ENS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE  
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS VS THE OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES WITH WIDESPREAD  
60-80% PROBS OF >=3" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL VA INTO THE  
EASTERN SHORE. THE GEFS HAS THE LOWEST PROBS FOR 3" OF SNOW WITH  
THE GEPS IN BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY  
INCREASE POPS WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW  
MOSTLY SNOW NW AND N WITH MIXED PRECIP INCREASING WITH SE  
EXTENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A DECENT WARM NOSE ALOFT FOR  
THE SE HALF OF THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MIXED BAG OF  
P-TYPES. THIS EVENT STILL HAS A RATHER HIGH CEILING WITH QPF  
WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY  
UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW THIS SYSTEM  
EVOLVES. FOLLOW THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DETAILS  
COME INTO FOCUS. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 640 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS  
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.  
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, BECOMING SE 5-10 KT  
BY MID MORNING. SE WINDS INCREASE TO ~10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 AT  
SBY, ORF, AND ECG THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS  
RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT RIC EARLIEST,  
SPREADING NORTHEAST TO SBY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR  
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, CIGS WILL TAKE MORE TIME TO LOWER BUT  
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT PHF BY MID AFTERNOON, LOWERING TO IFR IN THE  
EVENING. ORF AND ECG WILL SEE IFR CIGS TONIGHT. RAIN IS  
FORECAST TO BE HEAVIEST AT RIC AND SBY WHERE VSBY MAY FALL  
BELOW 3 SM. IFR VSBY IS ALSO FORECAST AT PHF THIS EVENING AS  
MOIST AIR INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER WATERS. FLOW ALOFT WILL  
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
WIDESPREAD LLWS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED WS GROUPS AT EACH  
TERMINAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS  
THE AREA. ELEVATED SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH  
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT INLAND AND 45  
KT ALONG THE COAST ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS OF  
50-60 KT IS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW  
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 355 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.  
 
- GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR S-SW WINDS  
ON SUNDAY BECOMING WEST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. GUSTS TO 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO  
45 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE DURING THE  
DAY ON SUNDAY.  
 
- ANOTHER MORE WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BRING SOLID SCA TO GALE CONDITIONS  
TO THE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH  
SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE  
SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT  
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT ON THE BAY...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT  
ON THE OCEAN. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT TONIGHT, WITH 2-3 FT WAVES.  
 
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY AS STRONG (980-985 MB) LOW  
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LAKE ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE  
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS. GUIDANCE HAS COME UP WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS AND EVEN  
THOUGH THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STABLE WITH THE COOL (5C)  
WATERS AND 925 MB TEMPS OF 15C...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30  
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT ON THE OPEN WATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  
GUSTS WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER (POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40-45 KT FOR A  
FEW HOURS) OVER THE RIVERS AND NEAR THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE OF THE  
BAY/OCEAN DUE TO HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MUCH WARMER/WELL MIXED LAND  
BLEEDING OVER INTO THE WATER. AS SUCH, GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN  
ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS STARTING 14Z/9 AM SUNDAY AND CONTINUING  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LAND  
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE WATERS FOR THE S-SW WINDS ON SUNDAY. IN  
ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND, SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED  
50 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO 6-10 FT BY LATE SUN WITH  
4-5 FT WAVES.  
 
THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING WITH STRONG CAA AND  
DEEPER MIXING IN ITS WAKE. WIND GUSTS MAY DROP BELOW GALE CRITERIA  
FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY EVENING AS WINDS TURN TO THE W BEHIND THE  
FRONT BEFORE INCREASING TO 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT+ GUSTS HAVE  
INCREASED TO 60-90% FOR BOTH THE PRE AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS. WINDS  
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY  
BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING OFF MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BRIEFLY RETURNS. ANOTHER (MORE WINTRY) SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING  
SOLID SCA TO POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEHERRIN AT  
LAWRENCEVILLE. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THE JAMES RIVER/RIC  
WESTHAM FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MINOR TO  
NEAR MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.  
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>017-  
030>032-102.  
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-  
080>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-  
631-650-652-654.  
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-  
634-656-658.  
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.  
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR  
ANZ635>638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-  
652-654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RHR  
NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR  
SHORT TERM...RHR  
LONG TERM...RHR  
AVIATION...RHR  
MARINE...ERI  
HYDROLOGY...  
 
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