932  
FXUS61 KAKQ 230144  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
944 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH  
SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 945 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS AND REMAINS ACROSS  
THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA. NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A  
STORMS FORMED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS  
EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR  
LOW STRATUS IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE  
FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKY. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS  
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND, TO THE LOW/MID 50S ALONG  
THE COASTLINES. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY  
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE  
LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.  
 
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. FORECAST LOWS ARE RATHER WARM FOR LATE  
OCTOBER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F. QUITE WARM  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F.  
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON,  
WITH POPS FOR SHOWERS INCREASING TO 30-50% FOR THE PIEDMONT AND  
I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARD EVENING. AT THIS  
TIME, ONLY MINIMAL BUOYANCY IS FORECAST SO THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN  
INCLUDED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL  
PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING  
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF  
I-95. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, GIVING  
US SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY  
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER  
60S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT  
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND  
TRAJECTORY/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT IS ASSOCIATED  
WITH. GFS AND THE CANADIAN HAVE THE FRONT PASSING THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE  
GFS HAS THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF US, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT  
IN FROM OUR SW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE BEST CHANCE POPS  
(~35-40%) THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOWER, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN  
THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ON THURSDAY AND LOW-MID 60S ON FRIDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN  
THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S AND LOW-MID 40S IN MOST OF THE CWA GOING  
INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND  
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, CAUSING SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION.  
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT RIC/SBY/PHF, SW AT ECG,  
AND N AT ORF. WINDS AT ECG SHOULD SHIFT TO THE N AROUND 02Z. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN N-NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY TOWARD  
THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR RIC/SBY/PHF. ORF IS CURRENTLY MVFR BUT SHOULD  
BE VFR BY 04Z. ECG IS CURRENTLY VFR, BUT CIGS WILL DECREASE THROUGH  
THE NIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02-06Z THEN MVFR CIGS AND  
POSSIBLE FOG BETWEEN 06-13Z.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND VFR. NEXT WEEK WILL BE  
MORE UNSETTLED BEGINNING WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THAT WILL  
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD  
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
PASSES LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. SW WINDS  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, VEERING TO N TO NW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND  
THE FRONT. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW RANGE FROM 2  
TO 3 FEET, WHILES WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.  
 
WINDS BECOME W-NW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BECOMING 10KT OR LESS  
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH  
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND MONDAY ~10-15 KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER  
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT  
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY SUB-SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, NEXT PERIOD FOR SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE BY TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA  
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. POST-FRONTAL CAA WOULD  
BRING A BRIEF SURGE OF CAA WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH  
MIDWEEK.AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH  
A POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA THU/FRI.  
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING TIMING AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG  
NEAR TERM...RHR  
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...AM/RHR  
MARINE...AJB  
 
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