266
FXUS61 KAKQ 311740
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
140 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1120 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
- CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE PIEDMONT BY 5 PM, I-95
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7-830 PM, AND HAMPTON ROADS/EASTERN VA
BETWEEN 9-11 PM.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS
QUITE LOW BUT NON-ZERO.
LATE THIS MORNING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE
THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING
NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
IS TRACKING NE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND IS PROGGED TO
TRACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WON'T CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. VERY WARM LOCALLY TODAY AND PARTLY TO
CLOUDY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S INLAND, AND
A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING THIS MORNING AND AM
WATCHING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER TN/GA/AL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY APPROACH
THE AREA LATER TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER, STILL THINK THAT ANY
APPRECIABLE CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 4-5 PM ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION/RESULTANT SBCIN IN PLACE.
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND PUSH E THROUGH THE EVENING, REACHING THE I-95
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7-830 PM. WITH HIGHER DEW PTS/ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TOWARD THE COAST, CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN VA AND NE NC BY 10 PM OR SO. WHILE THE INITIAL
(PRE-FRONTAL) LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING (ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST) UNTIL THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
WITH LCLS RATHER HIGH INITIALLY AND FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES (BUT WITH DECENT SFC HEATING), THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BIT OF BACKING IN THE
SFC WINDS DURING THE EVENING TOWARD THE COAST AND IN NE NC DESPITE
THE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE FROM 850-500MB. COUPLED WITH
THE SLIGHTLY LOWER LCLS TOWARD THE COAST, FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR
BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES IS A BIT HIGHER HERE DURING THE 7-11 PM TIME
WINDOW. SPC STILL HAS A 2-5% TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR DAMAGING WIND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. QPF THROUGH TONIGHT RANGES FROM 0.5-0.75"
FROM THE PIEDMONT ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO THE MD EASTERN SHORE,
TAPERING DOWN TO 0.15-0.25" ACROSS COASTAL NE NC. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW LATER TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S N AND NW TO THE MID 50S SE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY, SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT AND DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOWER/MID 60S
WELL INLAND. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S N TO THE LOWER/MID 40S S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE UPPER
60S/AROUND 70F WELL INLAND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A
COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW AS A TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THE 00Z/31 DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLES LARGELY KEEP THE FRONT N OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. 00Z/31 GEFS/EPS EACH DEPICT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE MID 80S INLAND THURSDAY
AND UPPER 80S INLAND FRIDAY. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY SETTLES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY, BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE N SUNDAY AS
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE
WEEKEND, ASIDE FROM LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS INVOF ECG WITH SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 22-00Z.
THEN, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
CONVECTION LIKELY ARRIVES AT RIC BETWEEN 23-01Z WITH AN ARRIVAL
TIME CLOSER TO 01-03Z NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY SSW WINDS (W/ GUSTS
TO 25 KT) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. ANY TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IFR/LIFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN HEAVY
RAIN. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BY 04-05Z AND
LINGERING SHOWERS COME TO AN END FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA
(BETWEEN 06-09Z). MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST,
BUT DRIER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE FROM THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 355 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WINDS BECOME ELEVATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SE
CANADA TODAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS WERE S 10-15 KT ACROSS THE S WATERS AND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO NW/N 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AS THE CAA
RAMPS UP. THIS STRONGER SURGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 4 AM TUE. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME N AND DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FROM
THE N. WIND PROBS WERE AROUND 100% FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT GUSTS INCREASE
QUICKLY TO 85-100% BY 15Z (11 AM) ACROSS THE RIVERS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 17Z (1 PM) FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND
DUE TO MIXING INCREASING OVER LAND AND GUSTY WINDS BLOWING
ACROSS THE LAND-WATER INTERFACE. GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SHORT BREAK IN
SCA CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE WANING SURGE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT,
HAVE EXTENDED CURRENT SCAS FOR THE CHES BAY THROUGH 4 PM TUE.
LIKEWISE, HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE RIVERS FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING THROUGH 1 PM TUE AND FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND S
COASTAL WATERS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM TUE. SCAS
FOR THE N COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TUE.
A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH WED MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WED-THU WITH WINDS BECOMING E/SE 15-20
KT WED AFTERNOON, BECOMING S WED NIGHT. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURGE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 2-3 FT AND 3-5 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS
MORNING. WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY
BY EARLY TUE MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-5 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT WITH ELEVATED SEAS
AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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