593
FXUS61 KAKQ 142351
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED
BY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SEASONABLE DAY FOR SATURDAY. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, AS WELL AS INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATED RIP CURRENT RISK TO LOW FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
2) SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY, BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
3) HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK, DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM
ROUGHLY CENTRAL VA OVER TO THE MIDDLE PENINSULA. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY HAVE
ALLOWED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB TO ~100 TO 105 DEGREES, WITH
READINGS OF 105+ ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS STARTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS, ONE
NEAR NEWPORT NEWS AND ONE JUST SOUTH OF SALISBURY, MD. STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED THE AIRMASS, WITH MLCAPE
VALUES ~2000-3000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS FAIRLY WEAK ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY (~20 TO 25 KNOTS)
AND STRONGEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST (~35 TO 40 KNOTS).
EXPECT MAINLY PULSE ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5 RISK)
FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT (PWATS 2.0+") WILL YIELD HIGH RAIN RATES AND LOCAL URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ANY STORMS PUSH SSE INTO NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AFTER ~02Z
(10 PM).
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY, BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY, PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR
S/SW. LIGHT E-NE FLOW WILL USHER IN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIRMASS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. MOST AREAS STAY DRY
ON SATURDAY, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NC BORDER. ON SUNDAY,
THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN US BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE MIDWEST. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS THE HEAT
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, WITH SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL
(1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY PEAK ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THERE IS A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE
THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MISS RIC AT THIS TIME,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEEM TO HAVE A SHOT AT SEEING IMPACTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS, SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPOS FOR ECG, PHF, AND ORF. SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT SBY, SO HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER ANY CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, CIGS COULD DROP TO NEAR MVFR AT THE TERMINALS, THEN ARE
FORECAST TO START TO SCATTER OUT AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BECOMING NORTHEAST
TOMORROW AND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 515 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE WATERS AND THESE FEATURES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WOULD BE EXPECTED IN ANY STORM CORE.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A NE WIND DIRECTION
DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 15 KT OR SO. SEAS BUMP
UP CLOSER TO 3 FT SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY SCA
THRESHOLDS. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN S-SE
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERIOD LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH AGAIN, LIKELY
REMAINING PREDOMINATELY SUB-SCA. STILL, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
SCA GUSTS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, LIGHT FLOW (10 KT OR LESS) IS GENERALLY
FAVORED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: THE WIND BECOMES NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10KT, AND NEARSHORE
WAVES REMAIN VERY CALM INITIALLY AND ONLY BUILD TO ~2FT
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE RIP RISK FOR SATURDAY WILL BE "LOW" FOR
THE LATEST FORECAST. THE NORTHERN BEACHES COULD THEN ALSO
APPROACH "MODERATE" SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...AJZ/SW
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