611
FXUS61 KAKQ 151905
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO AREAS OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE VERY WARM/HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO, HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WHILE VERY WARM/HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AREAS
OF SMOKE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND NO ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING E-SE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER
EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEAKENED AS A
SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MAIN STORY TODAY HAS BEEN A RATHER DENSE AREA OF SMOKE ALOFT
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALONG AND S OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THIS
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED THE TEMPERATURES, WITH MUCH OF THIS
AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, OR ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICT. TO THE N/NE, UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE AND A WESTERLY SFC WIND, MOST OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE
IS EXPERIENCING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH DEW PTS IN
THE 70S AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES OF 105+ AT SBY/OXB. THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS CLOSER TO THE SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF
CRITERIA AND GENERALLY HAVE HEAT INDICES PEAK ~100F. HAVE
MANUALLY ADDED "HAZE" WORDING TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE TONIGHT,
SPREADING NE TO ENCOMPASS ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT (FOLLOWING CLOSE
TO THE HRRR/RFS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE FORECASTS WHICH HAVE
BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS WELL).
WITH A W-NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED 3-5 DEGREES FROM NBM AND NUMERICAL MOS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SMOKE ALOFT. THE HRRR/RFS EVEN SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SFC SMOKE AND REDUCED SFC VSBYS (CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF LOWER MICHIGAN TO UPSTATE NY), TO DROP
AS FAR SOUTH OF THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE DURING THE DAY.
WHILE THE PRECISE SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT THE SMOKE WILL AT LEAST BE PRESENT ALOFT SO NO ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED W/ THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
STAYING BELOW 105F. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED AWAY
FROM THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, THOUGH WE WILL MAINTAIN
A SLIGHT CHANCE (~20%) POP THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MD
EASTERN SHORE, AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
BEFORE WASHING OUT. ON FRIDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH THU NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ONSHORE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
(EVEN WITHOUT THE SMOKE). IN ADDITION, THE HRRR/RFS SHOW A
HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE (AND SFC
BASED SMOKE INTO MUCH OF THE CWA). HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S (AND EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO HIGH). SOMEWHAT
LOWER DEW PTS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH KEEPING HEAT INDICES
BELOW 100F FOR MUCH OF THE REGION (POTENTIALLY COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES UP TO 105 FOR INTERIOR NE NC IF THE SMOKE STAYS NORTH).
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY EVENING, AS
ISOLATED CONVECTION RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
ADDITIONAL AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK AND
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FURTHER IMPACTS IN THE
DAYS AHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONUS. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. IT
NOW SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS WEAKENING FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS, THE UPPER FLOW TURNING WNW-NW
OVER A HOT, INCREASINGLY HUMID, AND MOISTURE-POOLED BOUNDARY
LAYER SETS UP A CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED PATTERN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURSTS. LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING STILL
APPEARS WEAK, TYPICAL OF MID-JULY, BUT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR A HOT, MUGGY, HIGH DCAPE SETUP CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE
STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE,
WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND A BIT COOLER WITH THE INCREASING PWS
AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, WITH THAT COMES HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS
APPEARS ESPECIALLY LIKELY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC, WHERE MAX
HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY LINGER NEAR 105 F THROUGH SUNDAY, IF
NOT MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES REMAINING
ALOFT (~25 K FT). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE S-SW. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN NEAR SFC SMOKE MAINLY AT
SBY ON THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHC FOR EVENING TSTMS AT SBY THU
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, ALL TERMINALS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE REDUCED
VSBYS IN NEAR SFC SMOKE BY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT
AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES E-NE 10-15 KT BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS ARE SW AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. EXPECTING ANOTHER NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
THE WINDS TONIGHT (TO 10-15 KT) AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. SUB-SCA BOATING WINDS AND
SEAS, HOWEVER, PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL KEEPING AN
EYE ON A WIND SHIFT TO THE E-NE FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WHILE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
BELOW 15 KT, SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF UPTICK TO
15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS, BUT ESPECIALLY N OF CAPE CHARLES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
COULD THEN APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS AVERAGE AROUND 2 FT
THIS WEEK, BUT COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 3+ FT FRIDAY WITH THE NE
WINDS. SEAS INCREASE FURTHER TO 3-5 FT AS S WINDS INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS, NC TODAY WITH A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. A LOW RISK IS FAVORED
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NE
WINDS FRIDAY (AND THE RESULTANT SEAS AND NEARSHORE WAVES), A
MODERATE RIP COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.
CLIMATE
AS OF 650 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- RECORD HIGHS:
- TODAY 7/15 THU 7/16 FRI 7/17
- RIC: 100 (1995) 101 (1980) 100 (1980)
- ORF: 101 (1995) 102 (1879) 100 (1887)
- SBY: 100 (1995) 99 (1915) 99 (2012)
- ECG: 97 (1997) 98 (1995) 99 (1942)
- RECORD HIGH MINS:
- THU 7/16 FRI 7/17
- RIC: 77 (1983) 77 (2025)
- ORF: 80 (1995) 80 (2024)
- SBY: 78 (2024) 80 (1983)
- ECG: 79 (2012) 80 (2019)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ064-075>078-
084>086-099-517>522.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...KMC/SW
CLIMATE...LKB
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