409
FXUS61 KAKQ 212331
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
731 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF SHOWERS ARE LIMITED, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER.
2) TEMPS COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN WARM BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN BECOMES POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A COLD FRONT BRINGS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF SHOWERS ARE LIMITED, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IT PRIMARILY ONLY AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION, AS
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY
(UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S ON THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL BE EVEN WARMER IN THE MID 80S INLAND, LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST,
AND 70S ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY,
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND A FEW STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LOSE STRENGTH FROM DECREASING CAPE
VALUES BEFORE REACHING THE AREA, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY, BUT APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL IS NOT. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY ABOUT A 50-
40% CHANCE OF RECEIVING 0.01" OF RAINFALL.
THE LACK OF A WETTING RAIN MAY CREATE AN ISSUE AS FAR AS FIRE
WEATHER IS CONCERNED SINCE GUSTY WINDS AND QUICKLY DROPPING
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GUST TO 25-30
MPH NEAR THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE AND 20-25 MPH INLAND. BEST
CHANCE OF MEETING IFD (OR EVEN RFW) CRITERIA WOULD BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIEST. THE SPC HAS
PLACED THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT IN A 40% AREA IN THEIR PROBABILISTIC
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TEMPS COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN WARM BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN BECOMES POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND MONDAY'S FRONT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND NEAR 50F AT THE COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE
RATHER TRANSIENT, ALLOWING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD BY LATE
WEEK, WHICH WILL INCREASE THICKNESS HELPING MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURN. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN BUT THE WESTWARD-MOVING SEA
BREEZE HAS ENDED THE SPARSE CU WE HAD EARLIER OVER INLAND AREAS.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY E AROUND 10 KT BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT TO RIC HERE SHORTLY. VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN AREA TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT ORF OR PHF BUT SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS. WENT WITH MVFR
THEN IFR AT SBY LATE TONIGHT WHERE GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT.
SW WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, LIKELY BECOMING GUSTY
INLAND WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, WITH NNE WINDS
VEERING TO THE SSE TONIGHT, THEN SSW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A GOOD CHANCE OF SOLID SCAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY JUST AHEAD OF AND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 35 KT GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION AND A
DECAYING COLD FRONT NOW OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. WINDS MAY TICK UP
SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED,
PARTICULARLY ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ON THE
TIDAL RIVERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT WOULD BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER,
WILL VERY LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SCA. PREDOMINANTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SE TONIGHT AND THEN S
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE N. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 15-20 KT ON THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME, DO
NOT ANTICIPATE SCAS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SOLID ROUND OF SCAS STILL APPEARS
LIKELY FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY, BOTH ALONG THE INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BEHIND A SECOND, MUCH COOLER
PUSH OF AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PREVAILING
(NORTHERLY) WINDS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-
30 KT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS WITH GUSTS
OF 30-35 KT. PROBABILITIES FOR FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE LESS
THAN 10%, HAVING DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. THE
CAA SURGE IS RATHER SHORT-LIVED, WITH NNW FLOW WEAKENING QUICKLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN VEERING BACK TO THE SSW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCAS IS NOT UNTIL FRIDAY IN SW FLOW.
SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT, POSSIBLY HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INCREASE AS WELL,
LIKELY TO 2-4 FT (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH). HOWEVER, SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY
SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/KMC
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/SW
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