879
FXUS61 KAKQ 240525
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
LARGE WAVES, LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE DISTANT
EFFECTS OF NOW POST-TROPICAL ERIN. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. DRY AND VERY PLEASANT FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC LATE.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
BROAD ~1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS LIGHT OUT OF THE
SW WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER GA/SC. THERE IS ALSO WEAK,
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NE TONIGHT TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
WILMINGTON, NC BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WILL LOWER SOME OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED INLAND AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE, BUT
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 2-4 AM ACROSS
FAR SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
INLAND AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
NOTE THAT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED.
- DRY, COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE
TO OUR NW SUN EVENING (AND WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AM). THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO PROGGED TO LIFT NE JUST
OFF THE VA/NC COAST ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OUT
OF THE MIDWEST. THE FRONTAL FORCING, WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING, AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VA DURING THE
AFTN...BEFORE POTENTIALLY REACHING THE PIEDMONT BY 4-7 PM. GIVEN
THAT INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE QUITE MODEST (MLCAPE <1000 J/KG W/
THE HIGHEST VALUES WEST), STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, STILL THINK WE'LL GET A FEW (VERY LIKELY SUB-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS FROM 4-10 PM. ACROSS THE SE, THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SE, BUT
THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AM THROUGH MOST
OF THE AFTN (BEFORE POPS DECREASE VERY LATE IN THE DAY). NOTE THAT
THERE IS A LARGE GRADIENT IN FORECAST QPF ACROSS NE NC, WITH ABOUT
0.1-0.75" FORECAST (HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CAMDEN/CURRITUCK COUNTIES). MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
JUST 50-75 MILES TO THE S OF THE CWA BORDER CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF
THE LOW.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND
EASTERN SHORE, A RELATIVE MINIMA IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH
POPS 20% OR LESS. MAINLY DRY SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S-70F.
ON MONDAY, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPARSE
WITH DECENT DRY AIR ADVECTION A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE FROPA.
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC (DUE TO HIGHER PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE) AND MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
TEMPS SURGE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC WITH MAINLY MID
80S TO THE N AND NW. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SUNDAY
NIGHT AND UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT (AS COOLER/DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT). A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE N-NW
BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND
80F AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- VERY NICE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF SUN AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
VERY NICE, FALL LIKE WX IS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE
SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY. THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP A NEARLY 0% CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK ARE FORECASTED
TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
F. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW 60S IN THE
EAST, BUT THESE COULD CERTAINLY TREND COOLER AS NBM TENDS TO RUN
HIGH IN THESE PATTERNS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY/GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 12Z STATISTICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z/24 TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY CLOUD BASE EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE BKN-OVC
CIRRUS DECK, BUT OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW SOME LOWER- LEVEL CLOUDS
(CIGS 3-4K FT) SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS MORNING,
WITH LOWERING CIGS ACROSS NE NC AND POSSIBLY SE VA. WHILE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE, THERE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
AT ECG AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE
AT ORF/PHF. VFR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TODAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME E-SE AT 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A LOW-END CHANCE
(20-30%) FOR SHOWER/STORM ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED AND PREVAILING VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.
- OTHERWISE, SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
- COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ERIN NOW
WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION. SE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT (HIGHEST IN THE BAY) THIS EVENING. TOO MARGINAL
FOR SCAS, BUT WITH HIGHS SEAS PERSISTING ON THE COASTAL WATERS,
SCAS CONTINUE THERE INTO SUNDAY.
SEAS LOOK TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5FT SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS, ALLOWING SCA TO FINALLY BE
LOWERED...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SFC LOW ALONG
THAT FRONT SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE, WHICH
TURNS WINDS AROUND TO THE SSW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, TURNING
NW AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT THEN CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIND PROBS FOR GUSTS ~20 KT HAVE INCREASED
TO 30-50% IN THE BAY, AND THUS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING, AS COOLER, DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LINGERING LONG-PERIOD (10-14SEC) SWELLS AND
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 6+ FEET, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE LOWER BAY,
BUT ARE STILL ABOUT +1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL, SO ADDITIONAL MAINLY
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY OVER THE MID/UPPER BAY.
WILL MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE (MD) THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
(THOUGH THIS WILL BE MARGINAL AND ONLY BISHOP'S HEAD HAS MUCH OF
A CHANCE AT REACHING MODERATE FLOOD THRESHOLDS. FARTHER SOUTH,
EASING ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING TIDES OVER THE NEXT
FEW CYCLES, THOUGH SOME NUISANCE/NEAR- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE FOR ONE MORE HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT (HAVE
EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE TIDAL YORK AND
JAMES RIVERS THROUGH THIS EVENING'S TIDE CYCLE).
LATER SUNDAY, LINGERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE AND THE UPPER BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC
BEFORE TIDES FINALLY EASE A BIT INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WINDS
FINALLY SWITCH OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ075-
077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ076-078-084>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AC/ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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