462
FXUS61 KAKQ 030012
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS, AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
2) A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS,
AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS 1024+ MB HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE
WEST, A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH TRACKS TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP SSW FLOW DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MESOANALYSIS REVEAL PW VALUES AROUND 2-2.25", WITH EVEN HIGHER
VALUES (TO ~ 2.50") JUST TO OUR SOUTH EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE DAMPENING UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS EAST.
AN EARLIER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTED ACROSS THE US-15 CORRIDOR IN
THE VA PIEDMONT, DROPPING UP TO 1" OF RAIN IN SPOTS FROM LOUISA
TO FARMVILLE TO WEST OF SOUTH HILL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE N AND W. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS OF THIS WRITING
ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL VA, AS WELL
AS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH OVER EASTERN NC. THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NNE ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SE VA AND EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE, AND
WHILE STORM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLOODING, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES PRIMARILY
DEPENDENT ON ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED NARROW DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
RAIN CHANCES RAMP DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, LEADING
TO A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS TWO MAIN CORRIDORS WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL MCVS EMBEDDED IN
THE SW FLOW ARRIVE: THE VA PIEDMONT AND ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
LINGERED HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS A BIT LONGER. DESPITE
INCREASING MOISTURE /IVT OF +3-4 STDDEV/ ALONG THE COAST
SUPPORTING A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOOD ISSUES.
FARTHER INLAND THOUGH, FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHERE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAINFALL HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
LOCALIZED 2-3"+ TOTALS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN RATES EXCEEDING
1"/HR ARE ABOVE 70% ALONG THE US-15 CORRIDOR W/NW OF THE
RICHMOND METRO, WITH A LOW (~10%) PROBABILITY FOR 3"/3HR TOTALS
IN THAT SAME AREA. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOOD
WATCH AREAS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED AREA OF FOCUS, BUT ANY
TRAINING CELLS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THIS EVENING.
FOR MONDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY AS
SHORTWAVES ATTENDANT TO THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. WHILE GUIDANCE VARIES ON EXACT AREAL COVERAGE, THE
CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN SUPPORTS A PERSISTENCE-BASED
FORECAST FEATURING A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND AN
ISOLATED, LOW-END SEVERE RISK. THE TROUGH WEAKENS FURTHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN EXPECTED AS
DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS DESPITE WEAKENING SW FLOW ALOFT.
GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND TALL, SKINNY CAPE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY LOW DUE TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, A NEAR-SATURATED VERTICAL COLUMN, AND WEAK SHEAR.
DAYS 1-3 (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) REMAIN IN A WPC MARGINAL ERO, AS THE
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOCALIZED DUE TO THE LACK OF A
STRONG LARGE-SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK OWING TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND DAILY PRECIPITATION. NBM NUMBERS DO
LOOK A BIT HIGH COMPARED TO THICKNESS TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT MORE OR LESS
IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH LIMITED CHANGE TO MESSAGING EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN EARLY IN THE WEEK, MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TIME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN DECREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MORE SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE MID-TO- UPPER 70S WILL MAINTAIN
MUGGY CONDITIONS, PUSHING HEAT INDICES TOWARD 100 DEGREES FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
HEAT HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PREVAIL THIS EVENING, THOUGH THE
COVERAGE HAS DROPPED OFF OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS. MAINLY VFR TO
HIGH- END MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL, BUT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT HAPPEN TO PASS OVER WILL LEAD TO IFR VSBYS IN LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL BE FROM THE S
AT 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST, BUT GENERALLY 5-10 KT FARTHER
INLAND. THE GENERAL TREND FOR CIGS WILL BE FOR LOWERING CLOUD
BASES OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHC FOR IFR CIGS AT RIC
(CLOSER TO SUNRISE). ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z THROUGH ~15Z/MONDAY. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST MONDAY, BUT SCATTERED AFTN SHRA/TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS (FOR NOW THIS HAS MOSTLY BEEN
HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS). S-SW WINDS AVERAGE 10-15 KT W/
GUSTS TO 20 KT MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LINGERING INTO MIDWEEK, MAINLY
FROM EARLY MORNING STRATUS, AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THU- FRI.
MARINE
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT
THE UPPER RIVERS.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE W. THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRING LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45
KT RANGE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THOSE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ON THE OCEAN WHERE SEAS STAY
ELEVATED EVEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
ON MONDAY, SO SOME EXTENSION TO ONGOING HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE.
WAVES BUILD TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT IN THE CHES BAY WHILE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FT S AND 4-6 FT N (7-8 FT POSSIBLE
20-60 NM OFFSHORE). SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP OFF FROM S TO N LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ALSO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY, LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CORES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHERN BEACHES TODAY
AND A HIGH RISK MONDAY. THE RIP RISK REMAINS LIMITED AT THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE DUE SOUTH WIND AND SHORE-
PARALLEL SWELL DIRECTION. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A MODERATE-
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT AT ALL BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...RHR/SW
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