587  
FXUS61 KAKQ 141939  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
339 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH  
TONIGHT, BEFORE PULLING AWAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS INTO  
WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORK WEEK. A  
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/  
 
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE  
CONTINUES OVER SE VA/NE NC, DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE CURRENT WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE COLOCATED OVER EACH OTHER JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER  
MIDWEST AND WESTERN ONTARIO REGION, PUSHING DRIER AIR TOWARDS THE  
EAST. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINS OVER SE VA/NE NC FROM SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER  
OFFSHORE, THE DRIZZLE WILL EASE UP THIS EVENING AND A DRY OVERNIGHT  
IS EXPECTED. SOME CLOUD CLEARING HAS BEGUN IN THE PIEDMONT WITH  
SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES IN FAR NW PARTS OF THE CWA. THE CLEARING  
WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO ABOUT THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHERE MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES  
AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR AREAS SOCKED IN  
WITH CLOUDS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT, WHERE  
THERE'S MORE CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO  
MORE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S  
IN THE PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F ALONG THE COAST.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 
- DRY, BUT TURNING COOLER THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FROST  
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI AM OVER INLAND ZONES.  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY HELPING USHER IN DRIER AIR. ENOUGH DRY AIR AND MIXING WILL  
ALLOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA,  
PUSHING OUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WITH THE WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES WEST OF I-95. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH  
THROUGH A DRY COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY, AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE REGION.  
LOWS WED NIGHT/THU AM WILL BE COOLER, BUT SEASONABLE AS DECOUPLING  
WILL NOT OCCUR DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING OF THE N WINDS. TEMPERATURES  
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON THE EASTERN  
SHORE AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD  
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER  
THE AREA/APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL BE  
CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING  
FROM MIXING, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL OVERNIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S (MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE  
COAST) WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT. THERE COULD BE  
SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IT IN THE GRIDS YET.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
- CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
BY FRIDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF  
COAST REGION NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND  
COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH FULL SUN AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID  
60S. THE HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SE VA AND NC COASTAL PLAINS FRI  
NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED (THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THU  
NIGHT), WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THE HIGH  
WILL BE OFFSHORE ALLOWING SW FLOW TO OVERTAKE THE AREA, BRINGING  
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE 70S. THEN BY  
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING A LARGE UPPER  
TROUGH TO MOVE IN FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL  
ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO  
UPPER 70S (WARMEST SE). WILL NOTE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT E OF THE APPALACHIANS  
WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE CHC  
POPS, IN THE 30 TO 50% LATE SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY  
DECREASE MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 105 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
MVFR CIGS PREVAIL WITH SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA, SEEN AT PHF WITH  
5-6SM VIS AS OF RIGHT NOW. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE DRIZZLE TO LOWER  
VIS AT ORF AND ECG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME, SO HAVE  
LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS. ANY DRIZZLE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS. RIC AND SBY HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED IFR CIGS  
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR, BUT HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR TWO  
HOURS AS THE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING SOME. THE GENERAL TREND  
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOR CIGS TO RISE SOME TO  
LOW- END VFR AROUND 00Z/15 (EXPECT ECG WHICH WILL STAY LOCKED IN  
MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD). SOME MVFR COULD REDEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. NORTHERLY  
WINDS ARE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND WILL DIMINISH  
OVERNIGHT FOR INLAND TERMINALS AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT FOR  
THE COASTAL TERMINALS.  
 
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY, THOUGH WITH N WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED WED,  
(LINGERING INTO THU ALONG THE COAST). DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS  
FRI-SAT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH  
THIS EVENING.  
 
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAY AND OCEAN  
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1034MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER  
LAKE SUPERIOR AND A BROAD 1008MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE  
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THESE TWO  
SYSTEMS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY CAUSING STRONG  
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE  
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE  
TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAY. WHILE ACROSS  
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY SEAS ARE REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 TO 6 FT. ACROSS  
THE OCEAN SEAS ARE BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FT CLOSER INLAND WITH 9 TO 10 FT  
FURTHER OFFSHORE.  
 
THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY  
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT. SEAS WILL  
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NIGHT WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE  
BAY AND 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES. BY TOMORROW MORNING  
AND THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY, BUT  
REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THE  
SCA FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND LOWER JAMES ARE EXPECTED TO  
EXPIRE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NEEDED TO BE  
EXTENDED AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS  
TOO LOW TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR THESE ZONES. THEN BY LATE  
WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA USHERING  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS BACK TO 20 TO  
25 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT. THERE IS SMALL POSSIBILITY  
THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35 KT WIND GUSTS ACROSS  
THE WATERS LATE WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COOLER AND DRIER  
AIR GOES OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT  
THIS TIME IS LOW. OVERALL, THESE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL  
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH WAVES BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT OCCASIONALLY 5 FT  
ACROSS THE BAY. WHILE ACROSS THE OCEAN, WAVES WILL BE BETWEEN 6  
TO 8 FT. DUE TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AND THE  
WINDY CONDITIONS, THE SCA THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE BAY  
AND OCEAN ZONES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR  
NOW. THEY WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER AS THE  
ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THEN BY THE WEEKEND, HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA HELPING WINDS AND SEAS TO LOWER  
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
ANOTHER STRONG EBB TIDE HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE ANOMALIES TO CONTINUE TO  
DIMINISH ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, AS THE WINDS  
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE N IT HAS PUSHED ENOUGH SOUTH  
HELPING CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS TIDEWATER, HAMPTON ROADS,  
AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE TO HIT ACTION AND MINOR FLOOD STAGES.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS NEXT HIGH  
TIDE CYCLE. IN ADDITION, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR SOME COUNTIES ALONG THE YORK RIVER AS WEST POINT IS  
EXPECTED TO HIT LOW END MINOR. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO WATER  
BEING PLUGGED UP THE YORK AS THE N WIND PUSHES WATER DOWN THE  
BAY. AFTER THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THE WATER LEVELS  
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER. HOWEVER, SOME COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS  
MAYBE NEEDED AS SOME PLACES MAYBE NEAR ACTION TO VERY LOW-END  
MINOR. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW AND WILL LIKE TO SEE HOW  
THIS HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING PERFORMS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
MONITORED.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-  
025.  
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
NCZ102.  
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-  
097>100.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ082-  
089-090-093-096-523>525.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-  
634-650-652-654-656-658.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ANZ635>637.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...KMC  
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB  
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB  
AVIATION...KMC/LKB  
MARINE...HET/RHR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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