189
FXUS61 KAKQ 041903
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST AREA WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER INCREASES TOMORROW.
2) A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP BACK TO THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER DANGER INCREASES TOMORROW.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OFF THE COAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY, WARM SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAD
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT, ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
WHILE GUSTS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE). THIS STRONG SW SURFACE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE'S EFFECT ON AFTERNOON RH. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR VA COUNTIES EXPECT FOR VA
BEACH AND THE EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM TOMORROW.
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND THE GREEN-UP IN NC, IT WAS
COLLABORATED THAT WE WILL LEAVE NC OUT OF THIS STATEMENT FOR NOW.
THE WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD IN THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2....A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
BACK TO THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW AND EVENTUALLY SW ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. A LEAD UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO OUR NW ON WED, AND GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE HIGHER
IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LATEST SUITE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH RAIN CHANCES
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. QPF IS LOW FOR ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME, WITH GENERALLY 0.10" OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH (UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE). DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH EJECTS
TO THE NE AND STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, THOUGH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH. THE
LOW TRACK WILL DICTATE WHERE OR WHETHER WE WILL HAVE INSTABILITY TO
FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL ALSO HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY, WITH MORE NORTHERN
TRACK ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS, WHILE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER. GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS THE
COOLER SOLUTION, WITH A NW TO SE GRADIENT WHERE THE NW COUNTIES ARE
IN THE 60S WHILE THE SE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 70S. WHILE
ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF 0.5" OF RAIN WED NIGHT-THU ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, THESE RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED WITH
RESPECT TO WHAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING A FEW DAYS OUT.
THEREFORE, WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY, RAIN TOTALS MAY BE A BIT
EXAGGERATED AT THIS TIME IF THIS SYSTEM PERFORMS AS POORLY AS THE
PAST FEW. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY BUT BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE
LESS ENTHUSED AND HOLD OFF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE FEW-SCT AT MOST, AND NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REALLY START TO DECREASE SOME
OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW EXPECTED TOMORROW, WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN PICK UP, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 MPH (25-30 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SBY IN THE AFTERNOON) EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING. SHOWER
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB FOR
SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 145 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE SAME
AREAS LATER TUESDAY, AND FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS REFLECT SSW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN THIS SSW REGIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT, AS WELL AS
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30
KT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS MAY
BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SEAS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT, DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPING WIND WAVE AND A LINGERING NE SWELL.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXPECT LOCAL BACKING OF WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO AFTERNOON SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT IN THE LOWER BAY. TIMING
FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA) ON THURSDAY REMAINS SLIGHTLY
UNCERTAIN, BUT THE CONSENSUS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MIDDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS VEER TO
THE NW POST- FRONTAL. HAVE LEANED ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE IN THE
POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, AS THE MODELS
ARE LIKELY NOT RESOLVING THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
(CAA) WELL OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DEEPER MIXING AND HIGHER GUSTS THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS, AND HAVE THEREFORE MIXED IN A BIT OF NBM90 AS A RESULT.
A FEW GUSTS TO LOW- END GALE FORCE APPEAR POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097-
509>525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
DISCUSSION...RHR/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...AJB/MAM
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