033
FXUS61 KAKQ 202323
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
623 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND VERY COLD TEMPS THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
REGARDING COVERAGE, TIMING, AND PRECIP TYPE. CHANCES FOR A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY HAVE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND. EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, BUT USERS SHOULD
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
3) A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME,
BUT USERS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
THERE REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MEDIUM RANGE SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR
WINTER STORM FROM THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE PRIMARY THREAT BETWEEN LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THESE WAA SETUPS, IT'S NOT UNCOMMON FOR
PRECIP TO BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN REGARDS TO EXACT PRECIPITATION
EVOLUTION. DETAILS BELOW:
THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL CAA SATURDAY, WITH 850-
925MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -5 TO -15C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
1048+MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AM. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 20S ON SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF FAR SE VA/NE NC WHERE LOWER 30S
ARE POSSIBLE. IN FACT, THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
ONLY AROUND 19F IN LOUISA! TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALLS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S
NW TO LOWER 30S SE (EXCEPT UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F POSSIBLE ACROSS
EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD AIR INGREDIENT
TO WINTER WEATHER IS HIGH.
REGARDING MOISTURE, THE UPPER PATTERN APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AN
ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND A MAJOR WINTER STORM, WITH A STRONG ALASKAN
RIDGE, AN ACTIVE/AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE S/SW CONUS, AND
TROUGHING TO OUR N. THIS ALLOWS FOR A VERY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMIDST THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AS
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF IS OPEN TO INTERACTING WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR FROM THE VERY STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. FOR US LOCALLY,
THERE STILL REMAINS SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND SPECIFIC PRECIP TYPES (ESPECIALLY S/SE), THOUGH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A MAJOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR AREA. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW
MODERATE-HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR 1.0-1.5+" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT. THE MAIN QUESTION STILL REMAINS WHO WILL
SEE ALL SNOW AND WHO WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW TURNING INTO
EITHER SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN (OR BOTH). THESE IMPORTANT
DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO PUSH INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES. HOWEVER, WITH THE
STRONG HIGH/IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING IN, THINK P-TYPE
WOULD BE FREEZING OR FROZEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC (AND IT COULD VERY WELL BE
MOSTLY SNOW HERE AS WELL DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK). GIVEN THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING, ANY FREEZING RAIN
THAT OCCURS IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN SINCE WITH TEMPS BELOW 28F
FREEZING RAIN IS FAR MORE EFFICIENT AT CREATING BLACK ICE ON
ROADS (AS WELL AS ACCRETION TREES AND POWER LINES).
SNOW PROBABILITIES OFF THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IMPRESSIVE. THE EPS HAD 50-60% PROBS FOR AT LEAST 12" OF SNOW
WHEREAS THE EPS AI HAD 60-70% PROBS. THESE BOTH HAD 80-90% PROBS FOR
6"+ OF SNOW BUT IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS (THE EPS HAD THE SWATH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHEREAS THE EPS AI HAD IT A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH, CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE EVEN SOME LOW PROBS
FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS (18") MAINLY ON THE EPS AI. THE GEFS HAD THE
LOWEST PROBS FOR 12" (20-40%) WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SHOWING A
50-60% CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THESE
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO WAVER BACK AND FORTH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE FINER DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR WARM AIR ALOFT TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH (POTENTIALLY A LARGE SWATH) OF SLEET MOVING
INTO AT LEAST SE VA/NE NC WITH FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
CANADIAN HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SLEET, HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA, SLEET COULD VERY WELL IMPACT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. IN SUMMARY,
THERE IS CONTINUED, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR WINTER
STORM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. EXACT DETAILS REGARDING PRECIP
TIMING, COVERAGE, AND TYPE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND SHOULD BE
RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STAY TUNED!
KEY MESSAGE 2...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
A COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) CENTERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (BELOW ZERO DEW POINTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT), CALM WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES. AS SUCH, HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS NOW EXPECTED INLAND WITH LOWER 20S
ALONG THE COAST. WILL NOTE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DROP INTO
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IN
LOUISA.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH (~1048MB)
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, A LARGE TROUGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION (ALONG
WITH ANY SNOWPACK) WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT (MAYBE EVEN LONGER) WITH EXTENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE,
LOWS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS INLAND (LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST) FRIDAY
NIGHT, MID TEENS INLAND AND LOW-MID 20S ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT, UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST W TO MID 20S E SUNDAY NIGHT, AND LOW-
MID SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF SOME OF THE
HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS CURRENTLY MODELED ARE REALIZED, OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO POTENTIALLY BELOW 0F WILL BE POSSIBLE
(POTENTIALLY FOR A FEW NIGHTS). THAT DOESN'T EVEN FACTOR IN THE WIND
CHILL WHICH COULD BE BELOW ZERO. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WINTER STORM COULD BE QUITE DANGEROUS FOR
THOSE WITHOUT POWER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WHILE ALL EYES ARE ON THE WEEKEND SYSTEM (AND RIGHTFULLY SO), IT'S
WORTH MENTIONING THAT A LIGHT PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DRY ON
FRIDAY APART FROM LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE NAM 12KM SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BIT OF WINTRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A BIT OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS NE NC. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS IS COLD AIR CHASING
MOISTURE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY WINTER WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW NW OF
RICHMOND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING SE INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION, CURRENTLY DON'T HAVE MORE THAN 0.1-0.2" OF
SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 623 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. SOME LLWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY/VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
POTENTIALLY CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS. WINTER WEATHER IS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
WEEKEND, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS, THOUGH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
MARINE
AS OF 235 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
STRONG ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO OUR
SW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT ARE OBSERVED WITH
12 FT WAVES AND 2-4 FT SEAS CURRENTLY. BENIGN NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE S/SW WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE, A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHICH MAY
BRING MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
MIDDLE BAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN
THE CHES. BAY AND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS (10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS). LOCAL PROBS SHOW A 40-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 25 KT OFF THE
MD COAST AND A 10-20% FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD, BUT HAVE HELD OFF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
REMAIN BENIGN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE N DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WAVES
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS AS WELL, WITH ~1 FT WAVES
AND 2-3 FT SEAS.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE A STRONGER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
AREA AS A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1050+ MB) DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WHICH WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
N/NE WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST, MOVING ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE THE LOCAL
WATERS. WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS, STRONG SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
LASTING THROUGH AS LATE AS MONDAY NIGHT. LOCAL PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS
PEAK EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND 10-40%. WAVES AND
SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS WELL, PEAKING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WITH 4-6 FT WAVES AND 7-10 FT SEAS. THE VERY COLD AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM COULD ADDITIONALLY CAUSE SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...RMM/NB
MARINE...KMC
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