371
FXUS61 KAKQ 281038
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
638 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK AND CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK AND
CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS PRECEDE THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER TO
THE S, A CLUSTER OF STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS IS NOW WELL OFF THE
OUTER BANKS, BUT THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NE NC. SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F EARLY THIS
MORNING.
THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
S. DUE TO A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW- MID 80S TODAY. POPS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER TODAY WITH ONLY A VERY MINIMAL CHC OF A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW PIEDMONT (< 15% CHC) THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AND PLEASANT TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S (60S
IMMEDIATE COAST). FRIDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F INLAND, AND IN THE MID 70S FOR
COASTAL AREAS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OUT OF CANADA AND PUSHES
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WILL SUPPRESS MOISTURE WELL TO THE S AND
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. 28/00Z EPS/GEFS EACH DEPICT
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM POPS ARE NOW LESS THAN 15% SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN PW ANOMALIES OF 50-70% OF
NORMAL. ANOTHER POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DIVE OUT OF EASTERN CANADA MONDAY, WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS AN OMEGA BLOCK
IS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. NBM POPS NUDGE UP TO 30-40%
MONDAY, AND THEN BACK DOWN TO ~20% TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, WHICH ARE
NEAR CLIMO. 30-40% POPS SEEM GENEROUS MONDAY GIVEN A LACK OF
MOISTURE RECOVERY (PW ANOMALIES TO 70-90% OF NORMAL), SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED MONDAY, AND EVEN THROUGH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS PW ANOMALIES IN THE 00Z EPS/GEFS
ARE AROUND 60-70% OF NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVERALL FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80F INLAND, AND LOWER TO MID 70S TOWARD THE COAST, WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S, WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL, QUITE PLEASANT FOR THE END OF
MAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF JUNE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS ARRIVING FROM THE N PRIOR TO 12Z. RIC AND SBY
ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO NNW BY 12Z, WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE REACHING PHF, ORF, AND ECG BY 13-15Z. ANY LIGHT RAIN AT
SBY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 12Z. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND VFR
TODAY WITH INCREASING N WINDS (NNE AT ORF/ECG) LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT (20-25 KT AT SBY). VFR AND CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT N/NE WIND.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY WITH A VERY LIMITED CHC OF
SHOWERS.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AS AS A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A BRIEF
NORTHERLY SURGE TONIGHT.
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS.
ALL STORM ACTIVITY HAD PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WINDS WERE GENERALLY WEST AT 5 TO 15 KT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NW THIS MORNING THEN N AS A FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH. WINDS MAY SURGE BRIEFING THIS MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 15 KT, BUT DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
NORTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE BAY TONIGHT. SCA IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO 8 AM FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH THE BRIEF SURGE, THEN DECREASE
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER BRINGING
A PERIOD OF N/NE WINDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH BUILDING SEAS AND
POTENTIAL SCAS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER QUEBEC AND DROP DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
US AND MOVE OFFSHORE SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE IN SOME GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY THOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SIMILARLY, WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE TODAY. WAVES ON
THE BAY INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE OF
15 TO 20 KT. SEAS COULD BUILD BRIEFING OFF THE COAST AS WELL
ADDING A FOOT TO THE EXISTING SEAS. BUILDING SEAS ARE MORE
LIKELY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY; THIS IS AGAIN ULTIMATELY
DEPENDENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOWS OFFSHORE. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...NB/JAO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page