538
FXUS61 KAKQ 121053
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
653 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY INCREASED AND MAY NOW CHALLENGE RECORDS.
MENTION OF FROST POTENTIAL ADDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD AND DRY THIS WEEK. RECORD BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE
MID-WEEK.
2) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST FROST
ADVISORIES OF THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD AND DRY THIS WEEK. RECORD BREAKING HIGHS
ARE POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
THE SFC LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHIND IT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
RIDGES NORTH TO COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP COULD LINGER
OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS LATE AS MID-MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE
DRYING OUT.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A WARM AND DRY ONE FOR THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SW REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALOFT, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SLOWLY EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS SET UP WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD-CHALLENGING HIGHS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOW-MID 70S AT THE COAST.
TUES HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THE TIME
THURS/FRI COMES AROUND, BUT THEY ALL MORE OR LESS SHOW IT BREAKING
DOWN LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TRY TO PUSH SOUTH THURS, BUT
THERE IS OF COURSE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IT WILL GET BEFORE
STALLING OUT, WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES ARE UNCERTAIN AS WELL.
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT, BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N THURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WOULD BE PUSHED BACK
TO THE N ON FRI, RESULTING IN ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST FROST ADVISORIES OF THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING THE STARK PATTERN SHIFT GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING UL TROUGH PIVOTING INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. SO FAR IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
A VERY WET FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
FORECAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH MOST PLACES
STRUGGLING TO LEAVE THE 50S, AND THE SAME GOES FOR SUNDAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE ONE TO WATCH FOR THE FIRST FROST OF
THE SEASON AND SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE SECOND FROST RIGHT AFTER.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MID 40S IN THE EAST ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST EACH NIGHT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
LOW TO MID 30S, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT MONDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. MOISTURE IS
WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW, WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. IFR CIGS WILL CLING TO
THE EASTERN SHORE (SBY) THROUGH MID DAY WHILE MVFR HANGS OUT AT
THE OTHER COASTAL TERMINALS. ONCE THE LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE AND
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN, CLEARING SHOULD BE RAPID FROM
W TO E. WINDS TURN TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW AND WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20KT. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO WESTERN NC. SW WINDS 15-20 KT
ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WAVES ARE 2-3 FT IN THE BAY WITH
SEAS 4-6 FT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NW IN ITS WAKE. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING NW WINDS THIS MORNING AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 6MB/6HRS MOVE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SCA HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER RIVERS TO
COVER THIS NW WIND SURGE. WAVES BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 3-4 FT IN THE
BAY ALONG WITH THE WINDS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5
FT IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS. SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH THIS
FRONT. 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEPICT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. STRONG SCA OR GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
639.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RHR
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