534
FXUS61 KAKQ 270734
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDING DRIER TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO HOT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC,
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OFFSHORE. PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH SOME MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE IS A SUBTLE WAVE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
THAT IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NC. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY NUDGE INTO NE NC FROM THE NORTHERN SHORE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. 00Z/27 CAMS/HREF REMAIN RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT
TO CONVECTION COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR TODAY, SHOWING
ISOLATED TO MINIMALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS. POPS REMAIN LOW, MAINLY
SLIGHT CHC, WITH SOME LOW CHC ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA AND THE NW
PIEDMONT COUNTIES, WHICH ARE CLOSER TO A BOUNDARY IN VICINITY
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW FOR TODAY WITH
ONLY 20-25KT OF 500MB FLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID- LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING, MAINLY NW.
THE BOUNDARY DROPS SE TONIGHT AND SETTLES INTO INTERIOR SE VA
AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY, BUT REMAINS RATHER
DIFFUSE. THERE IS A STRENGTHENING JET CORE OVER NEW ENGLAND, BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE RRQ OF THIS
FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FRIDAY IS NOW
WITHIN RANGE OF THE 00Z/27 HREF, WHICH DOES HAVE A DECENT SIGNAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH A CONTOUR OF A
30% CHC OF 3"/3HR ACROSS EASTERN/SE VA AND NE NC. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DAY 2 SLIGHT ERO
COVERS NE NC AND SE VA. HOWEVER, SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND THIS DOES CAUSE SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING. POPS ARE HIGHEST (50- 70%)FROM THE
I-85 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TO THE RIC METRO AND EAST TO LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND SE VA/NE NC, WITH 25-50% ELSEWHERE. A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SW FLOW OF 20-25KT
PERSISTING AT 500MB, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE FRONT LINGERS IN VICINITY OF THE NC/VA STATE LINE
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE SE
VA/NE NC AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON (40-60% POPS).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOW POPS OVER
INTERIOR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC.
SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND NUDGING UP
TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F (MID 80S AT THE COAST) SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
HOT CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS A 1.5-2.0 ST DEV
500MB RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. NBM
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. HOWEVER, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARILY
19-21C IN THE 00Z/27 EPS/GEFS, WITH SIMILAR VALUES IN THE
DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF. THIS ALONG WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS
SCHEMES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE 00Z GFS IS
EVEN HOTTER, BUT IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. IF THE HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED THAT WILL MEAN DEEPER MIXING, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F
DURING PEAK HEATING. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULD SUPPORT HEAT INDICES
INTO THE LOWER 100S. A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR
40N/50W MAY CAUSE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BREAK
DOWN/RETROGRADE LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THURSDAY LIKELY
REMAINS QUITE HOT AS WELL. MAINLY DRY WITH POPS NEAR TO BELOW
CLIMO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY NOT
RETURN UNTIL THURSDAY ONCE NW MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 27/06Z TAF
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO EVEN INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP. SCT-BKN CU DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTN HOURS WITH BASES OF 4-5KFT. THE WIND WILL REMAIN S/SE
TODAY, INCREASING TO ~10KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN, BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LIKELY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY. BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS. TRENDING DRIER AND MAINLY VFR BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALL EXPIRED THIS MORNING.
- GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
WEAK FROM BRIEFING MOVING INTO THE EARLY SATURDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS TODAY WITH MORE STORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TODAY WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 1-2 FT WITH WAVES IN THE BAY AROUND 1 FOOT OR
LESS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING THIS
MORNING AFTER PEAKING AROUND 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
MORNING, BUT BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH STAYING SUB- SCA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY FROM CAPE CHARLES AND
YORKTOWN SOUTH AND OVER THE LOWER BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE CAPES SOUTH.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
SOUTHERLY. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND THEN EAST SATURDAY MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 3 FT (POSSIBLE 4FT WELL OFFSHORE) LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
WAVES IN THE BAY 1 TO 3 FT WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES ON THE BAY 1 FOOT TO OCCASIONALLY 2 FT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN
BEACHES DUE TO NEARSHORE WAVES BUILDING TO 3 FT WITH A 8-9
SECOND DOMINANT PERIOD. EXPECT LOW RIP RISKS TO RETURN FOR ALL
BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP/JAO
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