356  
FXUS61 KAKQ 240736  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
336 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA TODAY AND THERE IS A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER  
WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT HUMIDITY AND  
TEMPERATURES INCREASE YET AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,  
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NOT AS HOT TODAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER  
FAR SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
994 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS  
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW THROUGH THE MID-  
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOCALLY, THE FRONT IS IS  
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS  
NOTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED STORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER SE VA. WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE  
AIR MASS IN PLACE (ALONG WITH ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT INSTABILITY/DCAPE),  
LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ANY QUICK-MOVING STORM  
CLUSTER. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER RESERVOIR OF LOCALLY HIGHER  
INSTABILITY FROM THE NORTHERN NECK EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE  
AND CAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE GROWTH HERE CLOSER TO  
SUNRISE HERE. A LOCALLY STRONG STORM ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING AND  
WILL LOCATED OVER THE FAR SE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPS WILL STILL INCREASE TO HOT  
LEVELS, WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S BY THE LATE MORNING  
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS WILL DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY  
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT  
AND N/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE  
PRESENCE OF A MOIST/HOT AIRMASS. CAMS SHOW NUMEROUS STORMS  
DEVELOPING BY NOON OR 1 PM ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC, WITH STORMS  
PROGRESSING S THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE  
HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL (80%)  
POPS IN COASTAL NE NC AND ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WHILE SHEAR  
REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE (~20 KT), SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOW-  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG, AND MODERATELY HIGH DCAPE.  
THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL COULD ALSO DEVELOP  
GIVEN ANY FAVORABLE STORM OR BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SPC HAS  
MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR WX ACROSS NE NC. OTHERWISE,  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN ANY STORM. QPF  
WILL LIMITED TO THOSE WHO SEE STORMS, BUT COULD REACH 1-2"+ IN SPOTS  
PER THE 00Z HREF. THE DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE SHOULD MITIGATE ANY  
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. EXPECT STORMS TO BE S OF THE  
AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING (6-8 PM). COMFORTABLE WX TONIGHT WITH  
LOWER HUMIDITY AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S, WITH UPPER 50S OR  
LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR NC AND VA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- REMAINING HOT TUESDAY, THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  
 
- HEAT BUILDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND HEAT INDICES MAY NEAR OR EXCEED  
100 F AGAIN.  
 
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR  
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S (UPPER 80S AT THE COAST), DEWPOINTS WILL  
ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S, MAKING FOR A MORE COMFORTABLE DAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME  
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO  
THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOWER 70S. THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY  
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF  
THE AREA (POSSIBLY 100 IN A FEW TYPICALLY HOTTER SPOTS). HEAT  
INDICES INCREASE TO 100-105 F IN THE AFTERNOON AND HEAT ADVISORIES  
MAY BE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE  
N/NW LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH  
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL TEND TO FOCUS  
OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD  
APPROACH STRONG OR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY  
AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT (BEST CHANCE N). SHOWER/STORM  
CHANCES LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE  
LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT  
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 
- FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
 
THE FRONT WILL DROP S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FOCUSING THE  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD, BUT LOWER SHEAR AND WIND FIELDS  
ACROSS THE S SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT. PER COLLABORATION WITH  
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO OUR S, HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS IN NE NC.  
HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 F.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY,  
SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY ACROSS NC OR THE FAR SW PIEDMONT, BUT  
MOST SHOULD STAY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR  
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE (594+ DM)  
EXPANDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND SE CONUS. THE RIDGE RETREATS W AS A  
TROUGH DROPS S OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING  
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THUS  
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY, GENERALLY LOW AERIAL COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD SUGGESTS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND  
POTENTIAL DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT OR EXPANSION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 140 AM EDT MONDAY...  
 
AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SE VA AS OF 6Z THIS  
MORNING. BRIEF DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE  
MOST LIKELY AT PHF AND POSSIBLE AT ORF. OTHERWISE, THE POTENTIAL  
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM CONTINUES  
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SSW WINDS OF 10-15 KT (W/ GUSTS ~20 KT)  
CONTINUE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING.  
AFTER 9Z, GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME HIGHER COVERAGE OF PRECIP  
TOWARD SBY, W/ PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED STORM AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY,  
SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES AS  
WE APPROACH SUNRISE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT ECG. SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE THIS MORNING INTO  
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS WITH  
SOME LOCALIZED SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD  
BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE. WINDS FLIP AROUND TO THE NW IN  
THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  
 
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS WED AFTN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...  
 
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END THIS MORNING FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,  
LOWER JAMES RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE COASTAL ATLANTIC.  
 
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
- MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS MIDWEEK.  
 
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS  
MORNING, WITH A TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE NW. THE WIND REMAINS SW 15-20KT WITH  
GUSTS TO ~25KT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA ASIDE FROM THE UPPER  
RIVERS. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5FT S TO 5-7FT N, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES.  
BAY 2-4FT. SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO 7 AM FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER  
JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND, AND CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE  
COASTAL ATLANTIC.  
 
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING AS  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND  
THE FRONT BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO NW 10-15KT  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN VICINITY  
OF THE COASTS OF SE VA/NE NC, THE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE WSW EARLY  
MONDAY, AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE IN THE AFTN AS  
THE FRONT STALLS. BY TONIGHT, THE WIND BECOMES NNW 5-10KT FOR MOST  
OF THE MARINE AREA, AND 10-15KT OFFSHORE N OF PARRAMORE IS. THE  
FRONT WASHES OUT IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY  
WITH VERY WEAK FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN TUESDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE REBUILDS OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH SUB-SCA  
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING, GENERALLY S TO SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 20KT AND STRONGEST LATE AFTN AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3FT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN  
THE CHES. BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4FT N MIDWEEK AND WAVES IN THE BAY  
~2FT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WIND  
SHIFTS TO NE THEN E LATE WEEK AND IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15KT  
AS OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMP WAS SET 78 WAS SET AT RICHMOND YESTERDAY  
(6/23) AND A RECORD HIGH MAX TEMP OF 99 FOR THE DATE WAS TIED  
AT NORFOLK.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR  
ANZ630>634-638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-  
652-654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW  
NEAR TERM...SW  
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW  
LONG TERM...SW  
AVIATION...MAM/SW  
MARINE...AJZ  
CLIMATE...  
 
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