065
FXUS61 KAKQ 091012
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
612 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
INTRODUCED CHANCE FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF I-95.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED A STRETCH OF
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK,
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
2) A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A
LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 550 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED A
STRETCH OF INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK,
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY THE MID-MORNING WITH A PLEASANT (AND MILD)
DAY EXPECTED. THE FRONT TO OUR S WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE,
LIKELY DISSIPATING BY THE LATER TODAY. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA STAYS DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY, THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. HIGHS RANGE THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 70S,
EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE EASTERN SHORE. A SEA BREEZE
COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND NE NC.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE SITUATES
NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN LOW-MID 80S. AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SPRING, THE
COOLER WATERS SURROUNDING THE EASTERN SHORE WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE
LOCALITIES COOLER AND IN THE 70S. RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD BE IN
REACH FOR ALL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE SIMILARLY MILD. MAINLY DRY BOTH DAYS, THOUGH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS W OF I-95 BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT, THOSE WARM TEMPS, DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S, AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FROM THE
SYSTEM TO OUR W COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM. OVERALL COVERAGE CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW DUE TO ONLY
NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES, BUT WORTH WATCHING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, WITH PLENTIFUL ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF
THE PARENT SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE THUS LIKELY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AERIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR SO, BUT ANY
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS. REGARDING ANY CONVECTION, THERE REMAINS NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD HIGHER
INSTABILITY CO-LOCATE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS ALOFT,
A LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE. THIS
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE E AND SE WHERE
THE FRONTAL TIMING IS MOST ALIGNED WITH ANY DESTABILIZATION.
REGARDLESS, MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE ANAFRONTAL, I.E, CHASING
THE SFC FRONT, SO ANY WINDOW FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD
TEND TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE PRIMARY THREAT, SHOULD THIS
MATERIALIZE, WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (I.E., LOW TORNADO AND HAIL
THREATS, RESPECTIVELY). SHARP PRESSURE RISES THEN OVERSPREAD THE
REGION POST- FROPA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPS
LIKELY TO QUICKLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONG
CAA ENSUES. THUS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST
ARE LIKELY TO BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH THOSE FALLING
TEMPS AS THE DAY PROCEEDS.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WX RETURNS FRIDAY, THOUGH HIGHS AROUND 60
F AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT. MILDER TEMPS
APPROACHING 70 F ARE FORECASTED BY THE WEEKEND AS TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER, ALSO SUPPORTING CONTINUED MAINLY DRY WX.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 550 AM EDT MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z
BUT IFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z.
VFR THEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCT CU AT ECG. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG INLAND AND LOW STRATUS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY,
OUTSIDE OF INTERMITTENT EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG CONCERNS. A
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, ALONG WITH
SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 610 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10
AM FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
- SOLID SCAS LOOK VERY LIKELY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, AS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION, AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT IS CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES AT THIS HOUR.
BENIGN, SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
THE SSW. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 FT
WAVES. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT AS WELL AND BECOME SE BY THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TO THE S TONIGHT (AND REMAINING SOUTHERLY
FROM TUE-WED AM). MARINE FOG HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS UNTIL 10 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
SOME ZONES, BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO BEYOND 10
AM ATTM.
DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO QUEBEC FROM WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL DRAG A SECOND,
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS THU MORNING/AFTERNOON. SOLID
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WED AFTERNOON, ABRUPTLY BECOMING NNW FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WED NIGHT-THU AM.
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW WITH THE LOW TRACKING WELL TO OUR N AND WAA OVER COLD
WATER (UPPER 30S-40S F). STILL THINK THAT THERE COULD BE A 2-3 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY FRI AM. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS
ARE 20-60% FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE BAY/OCEAN THU AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
DO EXPECT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY TO TREND UP A BIT MORE AS
THE MODELS CONVERGE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS, AND MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS TIME FRAME.
CLIMATE
AS OF 235 AM EDT MONDAY...
*** SBY BROKE THE HIGH MIN RECORD FOR 3/8, WITH ORF AND ECG
TYING THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS. ***
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 3/8 - 3/11
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 85 (2000) 82 (2009) 81 (2006) 82 (1990)
NORFOLK 82 (2000) 82 (2000) 81 (2016) 82 (1990)
SALISBURY 82 (2000) 77 (2000) 77 (2016) 76 (2000)
ELIZ. CITY 84 (2000) 82 (2009) 82 (2016) 81 (2016)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 3/8 - 3/11
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 61 (2009) 61 (1921) 63 (2006) 56 (1955)
NORFOLK 63 (1946) 62 (1921) 62 (2016) 82 (1925)
SALISBURY 57 (2009) 57 (1998) 60 (1909) 51 (1955)
ELIZ. CITY 63 (1946) 60 (1964) 57 (2016) 58 (1967)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638-
650-652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI
CLIMATE...MAM
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