024
FXUS61 KAKQ 151731
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
131 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL DISCUSSION SECTIONS UPDATED. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY EARLY THIS
WEEK.
2) HEATING UP AGAIN WED-FRI WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY EARLY THIS
WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS
LARGELY COME TO AN END, BUT A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE FORECASTING
A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND.
OVERALL LOOKING AT A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND LESS HUMID THANKS TO DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SIMILARLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS TOMORROW. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST,
THOUGH, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 70S. MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DOWN NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SPREAD UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEATING UP AGAIN WED-FRI WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURS EVENING.
HEATING BACK UP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S RETURNING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT EXPECTING AN OVERALL DRY DAY. THURS LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F. SHOULD ALSO BE PRETTY BREEZY OUT OF THE SW
DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE PRESENT. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND IN A 15% RISK AREA
IN THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THURS.
RAIN COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA, OR IT MAY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE
SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE 00Z ECMWF, IN WHICH LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST, COULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. IT'S THE ONLY MODEL SO FAR SHOWING THIS, THOUGH, AND
THE EURO ENS ONLY HAS A 20-30% PROB FOR QPF >1". AFTER THAT, THE
WEEKEND LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SAT AND
AROUND 90 SUN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. NW-N WINDS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK: BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. PRIMARILY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE
THU/EARLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND TIDAL RIVERS EARLY TODAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WERE N/NW 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 (OCCASIONALLY 30
KT) BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND
SCAS FOR THE CHES BAY UNTIL 1 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED A BIT LONGER THAN THE 11 AM END TIME FOR THE LOCAL
RIVERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET, AND WAVES IN THE BAY 2
TO 3 FEET (UP TO 4 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT).
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER
THIS EVENING, BRINGING A SECOND, SMALLER N-NW SURGE TONIGHT
(PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY). A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT
WIND PROBS FOR SCA CONDITIONS ONLY PEAK AROUND 15-20%. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH MID WEEK AS FLOW OF 5 TO 10
KNOTS BECOMES ONSHORE ON TUESDAY, THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND COULD BRING ELEVATED WINDS, AND THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...AJB/RMM
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