112
FXUS61 KAKQ 031032
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
632 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES TO START REBOUNDING TODAY WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
IS NOT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES TO START REBOUNDING TODAY WITH UPPER
80S TO MID 90S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE NC COAST IS MOVING
TO THE SSE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE FLOW WILL STILL BE ONSHORE,
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BASICALLY OVERHEAD. A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER READINGS NEAR THE
COAST. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
LOWER-MID 90S AREA WIDE WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT, DEW PTS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. IN FACT, AFTERNOON DEW PTS WILL LIKELY BE NO
HIGHER THAN THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH SAT, KEEPING HEAT INDICES
AROUND ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
REALLY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NOT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
RAINFALL WITH THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS
FOR THE FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRY (AND COOLER)
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MONDAY/TUESDAY RATHER THAN THE FRONT
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINITY AND AS SUCH, WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL NOTE THAT THE EPS AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LESS
THAN 0.25" OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NBM) ONLY SHOWS ABOUT A 25-40% PROBABILITY
OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL. THE EXACT TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, BUT THE LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A COOLER SOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK (UPPER
70S-MID 80S) WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES.
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THEN BECOME
NE AT 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTN. WINDS VEER TO THE E AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. MAINLY SKC OR SCT HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTO CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
NOT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXING FURTHER. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NNW AT 5-10KT EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15KT SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NW TODAY AROUND 5-10KT, BUT
SHIFT BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, NOW AROUND 4-6 FT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES TO THE VA/NC BORDER LIKELY ABLE TO
BE CANCELLED EARLY BASED ON CURRENT BUOY OBS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THURSDAY AND SUB-SCA SW FLOW
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS ELEVATED TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/MRD
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...KMC
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