152
FXUS61 KAKQ 271755
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH AND NOW ONLY
ENCOMPASSES NE NC (MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE).
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. SLIGHT RISK TODAY FOR NE NC,
WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
2) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND S OF I-64 SUNDAY.
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY-TUESDAY.
3) A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE LEADING TO HEADLINES IS LIKELY LATER
IN THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THU-FRI.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. SLIGHT RISK
TODAY FOR NE NC, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS OF THIS WRITING, SNAKING BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER, REMNANT FROM LATE
NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY LATE LAST EVENING TO THE WEST, HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED INTO THE RIC METRO AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DECENT
MID-LEVEL CAPPING STILL LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT FARTHER
NORTH.
ACROSS WESTERN TIDEWATER INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC, LESSER
CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT LATE-DAY DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING (STRONGER) AFTERNOON SHORTWAVE. A FEW STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED JUST E OF I-95 OVER NORTH CENTRAL NC INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL VA, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY AS
CONVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
VERY WARM TO HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL DRIVE DCAPE
VALUES TO ~1000-1300 J/KG RANGE S OF THE VA-NC BORDER, MAKING
THIS AREA A BIT MORE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER. FOR THAT
REASON, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) REMAINS FOR NC. GIVEN
DECENT W-WNW FLOW ALOFT AND 20-30 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR,
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH (15-20 KT) TO
LIMIT THE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THOUGH BRIEF HYDRO
ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF CONVECTION COALESCES OVER URBAN
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND S OF
I-64 SUNDAY. DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY-TUESDAY.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, STILL EXPECT HIGH CHC TO LOW- END LIKELY POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW BECOMES N-NE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. AGAIN, POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PERSISTS PRIMARILY ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS
INTO NE NC, ALBEIT A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID- UPPER 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NNE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE IS LIKELY LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THU-FRI, WITH HEAT
HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE REMAIN SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECISE LOCATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE FOR
THE LOCAL AREA. THE MEX NUMBERS LOOK TO BE TOO COOL WITH HIGHS
PEAKING ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S LOCALLY GIVEN A STRONG
CONSENSUS FOR H5 HEIGHTS >595 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 21-23C.
THIS IS LIKELY BEING TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. WITH THAT SAID,
HAVE CONTINUED TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THE NBM TEMPERATURES
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY- FRIDAY; CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY- FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOW 100S
AREA-WIDE (WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR MD
EASTERN SHORE AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA). THE WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TEND TO ALLOW SOME AFTN SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY BRINGING STEADY OR FALLING LATE DAY
TEMPERATURES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE HIGHER DEW PTS ALONG THE
COAST SO PEAK HEAT INDICES MAY BE SIMILAR. ALSO CONTINUED TO
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD WITH AFTN DEW P'S FROM THE NBM
(ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND P'S WEST). THE LATEST
FORECAST SHOWS HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 F FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (WITH POCKETS OF 110+ POSSIBLE).
THE ONLY REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE WITH THAT SAME SEABREEZE TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST, OR MORE BROADLY IN "RING
OF FIRE" TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. HOWEVER, WITH THE HEAT RIDGE
TRENDING FARTHER EAST WITH TIME, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY
LIKELY, AND THUS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW WED- THU, WITH
SOME SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALL
BE BETTER RESOLVED AS WE GET CLOSER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR A PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES LATE NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR HAS DEVELOPED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LINGERING
SC FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS STILL RATHER LOW, BUT HAVE INCLUDING
PREVAILING SHRA FOR PHF/ORF/ECG THIS AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TSRA AS PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE S TO
SW TODAY, AND COULD SHIFT TO EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS
AFTN. ANY STRONGER TSTMS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
AFTN (LOWEST CHANCE FOR SBY, HIGHEST SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC
TERMINALS). PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES
OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
EARLY MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT REMAINS WEAK ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
WSW AROUND 10KT. SEAS REMAIN LOW THIS MORNING WITH 1FT SEAS IN THE
BAY AND 2-3FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. THROUGH THE DAY WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE DECAYING FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS NEARING 15KT. IN ADDITION,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WATERS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAYBE STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 34KT. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE STAGNANT
THROUGH DAY WITH AROUND 1-2FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 2-3FT ACROSS THE
OCEAN. THE DECAYING FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND WINDS WILL LIKELY TO HOVER
AROUND 10KT OUT OF THE NE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME MAYBE STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34KT. THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER, WILL NOT
THAT MONDAY WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NE AND DECIDED TO UP THE WAVES
TO 4FT NEAR SHORE AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT ON A SLIGHTLY
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIPS ARE FORECASTED FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
SUNDAY THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHERN BEACHES BEING UPGRADED
TO MODERATE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, BUT THAT IS ALL DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT. THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR AN UPGRADE. CONTINUES WITH MODERATE RIPS
FOR ALL BEACHES MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND 9-10 SEC PERIODS.
EQUIPMENT
AS OF 1000 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KAKQ RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...HET
EQUIPMENT...MAM
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