913
FXUS61 KAKQ 261739
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR WORCESTER
COUNTY IN MD AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE.
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE EASTERN SHORE HAVE
BEEN DOWN GRADED TO GALE WARNINGS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE COAST AS A NOR'EASTER STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND.
2) WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING (INUNDATION OF 2-3+
FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MIDDLE BAY SEEING FLOODING PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
THE COAST AS A NOR'EASTER STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND.
THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE, TRACKING TOWARDS NJ
LATER THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WOBBLING UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN CONTINUED IMPACTS LOCALLY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. THE POSITION OF THE LOW, AS WELL
AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, ALLOWS GUSTY WINDS
TO CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE COAST. WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (COASTAL MD EASTERN SHORE
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 45 MPH BRIEFLY THIS MORNING). WIND ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE COASTAL
WATERS (WORCESTER, ACCOMACK, AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES). AT THIS
TIME, THESE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, AS WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. INTERIOR PORTIONS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTS TO 25-
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON FROM WELL ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT REMAINING BREEZY WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY, HELPING KICK THE NOR'EASTER FURTHER OFFSHORE
BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS BACK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE AS THE LOW
SLIDES NORTH AND WEST. THE STEADIER RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE QPF IS BETWEEN 0.5-1.0". FOR OTHER COASTAL
AREAS, THE RAIN SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE CLOSER TO DRIZZLE
WITH QPF UNDER 0.25". THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, RAIN/DRIZZLE
COULD PUSH AS FAR WEST AS THE PIEDMONT BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER MOSTLY FOR THE EASTERN SHORE ON
SUNDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRYING OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER NEXT WEEK LEADING TO CALMER WEATHER.
LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S
THROUGH THE WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME LATE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING
(INUNDATION OF 2-3+ FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE BAY SEEING FLOODING PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS A NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST, WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BACK OVER THE REGION, NOW CLOSER TO N TO NNE. IN
ADDITION, THE SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY AT 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. HOWEVER, THIS HAS DONE LITTLE TO CHANGE THE COASTAL
FLOOD SITUATION WITH MOST SITES STILL SEEING ANOMALIES OF 2.5-3.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR ANOMALIES TO PERSIST. THESE ANOMALIES
COMBINED WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LIKELY WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE TIDAL SITES THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERALL, STORM SURGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EVEN HIGHER WITH THE 12Z
RUNS, ESPECIALLY INSIDE THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, FOR OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE MODELS TRENDING WEST AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WITH THE NOR'EASTER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE N-NW FLOW
INSIDE THE BAY LEADING TO MORE EBBING AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE INCREASED WATER LEVELS WITH A BETTER
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THE TIDE FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED
SLIGHTLY FOR MOST SIDES, WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES (~0.5 FT)
ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED OUT
ANOTHER CYCLE, SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL
EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE, WITH 5000-8000 FT CIGS NEAR RIC. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP THIS EVENING-EARLY TONIGHT TO 1500-3000 FT AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE AT SBY, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. VSBYS IN THE RAIN WILL BE 3-6SM. MVFR CIGS LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING TO VFR BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN AS THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER, SBY COULD SEE MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUN
WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25-35 MPH CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT AND BECOMING WNW. GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE, EVEN NEAR THE COAST, LATE
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 700 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DEEPENING NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT NORTH OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST TOWARD LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS ASIDE FROM THE VA RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING ~990 MB NOR'EASTER CENTERED ~150
MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. MEANWHILE, ~1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION, EXTENDING NE INTO SE QC.
DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH
THE LATEST OBS SHOWING NNW WINDS 15-25 KT OVER THE E VA RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND, AND 20-30 KT, GUSTING TO 35-40 KT OVER THE BAY,
WITH 25 TO 35 KT WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 55 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, HIGHEST PER GOES DMW AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEPENING NOR'EASTER.
SEAS 11-18 FT, HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND OFFSHORE.
ONLY CHANGE IS TO ADD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND,
AND UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
THE E VA RIVERS.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS THE LOW SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDERS TOWARD THE NJ COAST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO EXIT SLOWLY TO THE NNE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFT NNW THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS FALL BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING/
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EXPECT GALES WILL BE REPLACED BY SCA, WHICH
SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST.
COASTAL HAZARDS: FINALLY, THE LONG-DURATION NNE WINDS CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS, CURRENTLY IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND, WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS EVEN AS WINDS BECOME NNW. LOCALIZED BEACH AND
DUNE EROSION REMAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SIDE OF THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE. ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED
THIS MORNING AS DEEPENING NOR'EASTER SLOWLY LIFTS OFFSHORE OF
THE DELMARVA COAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS FORECAST, WITH THE WORST IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 2-3
TIDE CYCLES BEFORE WINDS PUSH OFFSHORE AND ANOMALIES SLOWLY
EASE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ083-084-099-
100-518-520-523.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ075>078-081-
082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ097-098-525-
529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-658-680-
682-684-686-688.
DISCUSSION...AC/KMC/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...AJB/MAM
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