274
FXUS61 KAKQ 241938
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY HAVE INCREASED.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY (WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
ACROSS NE NC). HIGHS SATURDAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY;
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH ANOTHER BATCH
OF RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY (WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS ACROSS NE NC). HIGHS SATURDAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SC AND SOUTHERN NC COASTAL PLAIN, WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM
THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY, AND IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY DROPPING
SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BACK
SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT, TO THE WSW, HELPING TO LIFT THE MOISTURE
AND PRECIP BACK NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS ALSO SUPPORT
RAISING POPS TO 40-60% AS FAR NORTH AS METRO RIC, THOUGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 0.10-0.20" OR LESS THAT
FAR TO THE NORTH. QPF AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC
WILL AVERAGE 0.50" TO 1.00" WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN NE NC. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK QUITE LIMITED NORTH OF
THE VA- NC BORDER, BUT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES INTO FAR
SOUTHERN VA FOR IN CASE A FEW ELEVATED CELLS DEVELOP WHERE THE
NAM/GFS DEPICT ~200 J/KG OF MU CAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES AND RATHER COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN NE NC AND AT THE COAST IN SE VA.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTH, WITH SOME LOWER 80S NE (WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUN IS MOST
LIKELY). DRYING OUT SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY;
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY-MONDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90F. MAINLY DRY OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATER TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SE
FROM CANADA AND LINGERS ACROSS THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
STORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THOUGH WITH
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE. WITH THE STRENGTH OF TROUGH,
AND EVEN A POTENTIAL SFC LOW <1000MB, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING LINES UP
WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, AND SPC DAY 5 OUTLOOK HAS THE
LOCAL AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
EARLIER RAIN ACROSS NE NC HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE SE, WITH SOME
RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS NOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
AND FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. WHILE A FEW
TSTMS MAY AFFECT ECG, THE CHANCE IS RATHER LOW SO WILL ONLY HAVE
RAIN MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG, PRIMARILY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE E-NE AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK:
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY, WITH DRY WX/VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, WITH A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH THE NEXT FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
EASTERLY/ONSHORE WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 KT. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 1-2
FT AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH. OFFSHORE, SEAS ARE 2-4 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS SEAS FELL BELOW 5 FT. WINDS
DECREASE TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT AND LINGER IN THAT RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO NE THEN N 10-15 KT BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW IS A BIT DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. S AND SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE CHES BAY AND 20-25 KT OFFSHORE. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY. LOW RIP RISK IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK LOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...AC/LKB
MARINE...RHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page