585
FXUS61 KAKQ 202045
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD
ALSO BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 0-10 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
VIRGINIA (INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS) AS WELL AS ALL OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS VERY
DRY AIR (SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO DEWPOINTS) CONTINUES TO FILTER
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND
TEMPERATURES WILL VERY QUICKLY FALL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VERY
COLD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, TO THE LOW TO MID 10S ELSEWHERE. THE
COLD AIR TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE (HIGHEST CLOSER
TO THE COAST) WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE 0-10 DEGREE RANGE,
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES LIKELY OCCURING ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE
NORTHERN NECK WHERE WIND CHILLS OF 0-5 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE WIND CHILLS OF 5-10 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST (WIND CHILLS OF 10 DEGREES OR LOWER CONSTITUTES AN ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS). FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, WHILE NOT UNDER
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILLS
HOVERING IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER 10S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
COUNTIES IN NC, OVER TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
- VERY COLD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES LIKELY BEING NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE WAS A SMALL, BUT NOTABLE, SHIFT IN RESPECT TO THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF (AND THUS MORE SNOW) A BIT
FURTHER TO THE NW. DIVING INTO THE MODEL ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, THE
12Z GEFS TRENDED UPWARD FROM OVERNIGHT, NOW SHOWING A STRIPE OF ~30-
50% CHANCES FOR > 1" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, WITH ~10-20% CHANCES FOR >
3". THE 12Z EPS MADE A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT JUMP, WITH ~50-70+%
CHANCES FOR > 1" OF SNOW AND ~10-40% FOR > 3" OVER THE SAME AREAS. T
HE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PAINT A STRIPE OF 3+" ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. IN ADDITION, THE NAM IS STARTING TO COME INTO RANGE
AND IS PAINTING EVEN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND INTO POTENTIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. KNOWING ALL OF
THIS, AND ALSO KNOWING THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW
TO (PERHAPS) MID 20S, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE BETTER THAN 10:1
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT, HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, OVER TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. THESE
LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING 3" OR GREATER OF
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES/CITIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL TRENDS THIS EVENING, WITH VIRGINIA BEACH AND CHESAPEAKE BEING
POSSIBLE ADDITIONS IF THE SNOW TRENDS FURTHER NW. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, LIKELY SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
OTHERWISE, VERY COLD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RANGING TO JUST
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL ALSO
BE MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY, ADDING TO THE
WINTER FEEL. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT TANK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR TEENS ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE WIND COMPARED TO
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 0-10. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH, IF NOT
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY OR
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA (LOWER 20S NORTH). THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. ONE "POSITIVE" IS THAT THERE WILL BE LESS WIND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO THE WIND CHILL MAY CLOSE TO OR EQUAL TO AIR
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POTENTIALLY BRINGS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE TO END THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS POISED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COASTAL TROUGH THURSDAY TO OUR S. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AND THUS ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY ENTHUSED
ABOUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE
STAYS TO OUR S AND SE. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS ACROSS EASTERN VA
AND NE NC THURSDAY, ALONG WITH FREEZING RAIN/SNOW WORDING INLAND AND
RAIN/SNOW WORDING ALONG THE COAST. AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
AND EXPECT POPS AND P-TYPES TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS AS
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THURSDAY'S HIGHS REMAIN
CHILLY AND IN THE 30S, WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S
FRIDAY. A MORE NOTICEABLE MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES RANGING FROM ~4000 TO 6000 FT. GUSTY NW
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, AVERAGING ~10 KT WITH GUSTS
TO ~20 KT, HIGHEST AT SBY. LIGHT WINDS INLAND TONIGHT W/ 5-10
KT AT THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER TUESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON (BUT REMAINING VFR).
OUTLOOK: REMAINING DRY WITH VFR THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SNOW, MAINLY AT THE COAST, RETURNING LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN THIS LATE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME REMAINS QUITE LOW.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED
WINDS.
- LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN, BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. NW WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH
WAVES AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS ARE 2-4 FT OFFSHORE.
COMPRESSED SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO N AND NW REMAINING
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF CAA TONIGHT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT SO NO SCA HEADLINES ARE PLANNED. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE COAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL SHARPEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WINDS INCREASING TO
~15-20 KT FOR THE CHES BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER WITH 20-25 KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
BUT ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE N OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS AND LOCAL IMPACTS REMAINS
VERY LOW.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING TUESDAY. AN EXTENSION OR
EXPANSION OF THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY SEEMS LIKELY AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COLD
TEMPS LINGER. THEREAFTER, WINDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY MODERATE SO FURTHER FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ015>017-031-032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ075>078-084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-
523>525.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634>638-650-652-654-656.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page