496
FXUS61 KAKQ 211953
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR
CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND THROUGH 10PM THIS EVENING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,
SOUTHERN, AND EASTERN VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND FOR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL VA
THIS AFTN WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND POTENT UPPER
TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30-40KT AND COMBINED
WITH 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS RESULTED IN QUICKLY DEVELOPING
UPDRAFTS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
EVENING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO 40-50KT.
THEREFORE, A MIX IS LINE SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A RISK FOR TORNADOES (ESPECIALLY N AND
NE WHERE SRH WILL BE HIGHER), AND SOME INITIAL CELLS LATE THIS
AFTN COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
FAST STORM MOTION WILL INITIALLY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT SLOWS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
(AND EVENTUALLY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT) THE FLOOD THREAT WILL
INCREASE DUE TO PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THERE IS
PRESENTLY AN AXIS OF 2.0-2.3" OF PW ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO THE
EASTERN SHORE, AND THIS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
CENTRAL VA TO THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE COVERING THE THREAT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
SE TO COVER THE LATER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES TODAY/TONIGHT WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER AND DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, THE
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG (40-50KT AT
500MB). SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLINED FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA (LVL
2/5).
DESPITE THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT SIGNAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ERO AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH PW GENERALLY 2- 2.4", AND A SMALL MODERATE RISK AREA WILL
BE ISSUED FOR SE VA INTO NE NC. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL MODERATE
RISK AREA WILL BE INTRODUCED INCLUDING NE NC THURSDAY. DECENT
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING BUT TRAINING
STORMS ON TOP OF THE RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY/TONIGHT COULD CAUSE
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SE VA AND NE NC BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA. ALL TOTAL, THE QPF FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY HAS GENERALLY
3-5", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FROM RICHMOND AND
EMPORIA EASTWARD TO SE MD AND NE NC.
SOME DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES BACK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TRENDING DRIER WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT TUESDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR FOR THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT RIC AND SBY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS RAMP UP BY
~20Z, ESPECIALLY FROM RIC TO SBY. STRONG- SEVERE STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW TO 20-25 KT. SHOWERS/TSTMS
GRADUALLY PUSH ESE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY AFFECTING RIC AND SBY,
AND COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LESS AT ORF, PHF, AND ECG. SOME LOWER MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR RIC, SBY, AND PHF.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIKELY. A SW WIND COULD GUST TO 20-25KT AGAIN WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH BY LATE WEEK, BUT COULD STILL IMPACT
KORF/KPHF DOWN TO KECG.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL WATERS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING.
SW WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE JUST SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 15-20 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 20-25 KT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE CHES. BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND, AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-34 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE PAST 20 NM, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING, THEN
DIMINISHING WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES (EXCLUDING THE 20-60 NM ZONES WHERE SCAS ARE NOT
ISSUED) THROUGH 1 PM WED FOR THE CHES. BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND
TIDAL RIVERS AND 6 PM FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. A SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN
THE CHES. BAY, WHICH COULD NEED ANOTHER SCA. LIGHTER NE WINDS ARE
LIKELY THURS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURS MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG, ERRATIC WINDS.
THE HIGHEST RISK IS TODAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE VA AND MD
WATERS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WED INTO
THURS.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT BY THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS PICK UP WITH WAVES
IN THE BAY INCREASING TO 2-3 FT. SEAS OF 4-5 FT FOR SOUTHERN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-6 FT FOR THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT (6-7 FT OFFSHORE). WAVES UP TO 4 FT EXPECTED IN
THE BAY OVERNIGHT. 5+ FT SEAS MAY LINGER AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
065>069-076>090-092-099-100-509>520-522>525-528.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634>637-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...AJZ/JDM
MARINE...AC/KMC
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