385
FXUS61 KAKQ 110746
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WPC HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED AND HUMID THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE REGION, BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
2) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED AND HUMID THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS NEAR THE REGION, BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SFC-BASED AND ML CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ~500 J/KG BUT CIN IS
ALSO PRESENT SO THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO NO THUNDER OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HRS. PWAT VALUES ARE ELEVATED HOWEVER, AROUND
1.80" TO 1.90" OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA, SO THESE
SHOWERS ARE PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN AND HAVE BEEN BACKBUILDING
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND EVEN FFWS IF SOME OF THESE REACH INTO THE MORE
URBAN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. THE CAMS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING
THIS ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY WELL THUS FAR, SO THE DIMINISHING
COVERAGE DEPICTED AFTER SUNRISE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. AS THE
FRONT SINKS SOUTH LATER TODAY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-64 THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, WITH
THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE 11/00Z HREF PMM MOSTLY HIGHLIGHTS A 70% SIGNAL FOR 1"/3-HR
QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY (SOUTHERN VA/INTERIOR NE
NC, BUT MOST AREAS ARE ONLY IN THE 10% PROB FOR 3"/3 HR, INDICATING
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD ISSUES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, FOCUSED S-SW OF I-64, WITH A DAY 1 MARGINAL ERO. TEMPERATURES
WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY SHARP GRADIENT TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
THROUGH MID AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTH, EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S, WITH NORTHERN AREAS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO SINK SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING
OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LOW STRATUS
AND POSSIBLE SOME FOG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. HUMID WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH, WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH WHERE LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 60S.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK SATURDAY, AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, ALONG WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MODEST INSTABILITY (SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE), AND WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD YIELD EFFICIENT
WARM RAINFALL PROCESSES AND ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS
(SUPPORTED BY AN AREA-WIDE WPC ERO MARGINAL RISK AND A LOCALIZED
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING
METRO RIC. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A LID ON SATURDAY
HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S N, BUT HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER
80S SE. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME WEAK CAD, POTENTIALLY KEEPING FAR
NW ZONES EVEN COOLER (BUT STILL VERY HUMID). THE BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT SUNDAY, LEADING TO NOTICEABLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA, BUT POPS REMAIN HIGH CHC TO
LIKELY FOR THE SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NW ON MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES OFF THE
NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY EXPANDING NE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY, AND BRING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW PTS MORE TYPICAL OF
SEPTEMBER. BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER, MORE PLEASANT NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/TUE AM
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR MD EASTERN SHORE AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GRADUALLY TICK BACK UP MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS HEAT AND MOISTURE
START TO RETURN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS E-NE TO THE TN
VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING, ASIDE FROM AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL VA (AFFECTING RIC), AND A FEW SHOWERS
WITH REDUCED VSBYS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
MORNING AT SBY AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT
RIC/ECG WHERE PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHC FOR IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS
INLAND WHICH WOULD FAVOR RIC.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK NORTH LATER
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC IFR-LIFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. REMAINING
UNSETTLED SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC. BECOMING DRY AND MAINLY VFR BY MONDAY WITH NE
WINDS.
MARINE
AS OF 125 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS IS FAVORED FROM
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- LOW-END SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH NE WINDS BEHIND A FRONT LATE MONDAY-
MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
THOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION AS CONVECTION
CROSSED PORTIONS OF THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AGO. WIND SPEEDS ARE 5-
15 KT (HIGHEST SOUTH). A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY FROM NOW-SUNRISE, BUT NO SCAS ARE PLANNED.
SEAS ARE 2-3 FT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FROM LATE MORNING-AFTN. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE FROPA, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY LATE
IN THE DAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS, AND
LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW LESS THAN A 10% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS.
THE FLOW BECOMES E THEN SE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KT (HIGHEST NORTH) THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS BECOME S-SW AT ~10 KT
ON SUNDAY. SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MARINE AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE FOLLOWING THE FROPA. THIS FRONT
APPEARS TO BE A BIT STRONGER, WITH SOME OF THE 00Z MODELS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY. WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO THE EAST MON NIGHT-TUE SO
ANY SCAS WOULD LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. THOUGH IT IS 72-
84 HOURS OUT, LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 30-40% ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
FROM MON AFTN-MON EVENING. WAVES AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 1-2 FT
AND 2-3 FT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH SCA LEVEL
SEAS POSSIBLE (MAINLY SOUTH) BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME NE.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY, WITH THE NORTHERN
BEACHES BUMPING UP TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE.
A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK RETURNS TO ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...ERI/NB
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