906
FXUS61 KAKQ 080633
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
233 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES APART FROM SOME CIRRUS. TEMPS AS OF 2
AM WERE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA APART FROM UPPER
60S ALONG THE COAST AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S. GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND CALM WINDS, EXPECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, LOWER 60S IN URBAN AREAS, AND MID-UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE MID
50S. ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST (ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH
THE UPPER 80S), AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60F DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THE HIGH WILL HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
CALM OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT, LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
THE AREA, AND MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. SW WINDS INCREASE WED INTO
THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA
WELL TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THU
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE REGION AS
WELL WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST WED
(LOCALLY MID 80S) AND LOW-MID 90S BY THU. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S BY THU. MEANWHILE, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THU.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS.
GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING (30-60% POPS NORTH).
A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THE PARENT
LOW IS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
(AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY) RETURN. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE STALLING IN NC. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
OF THE COLD FRONT FRI, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA (25-55% POPS). THE FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS BACK NORTH SAT. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA, POTENTIALLY FORMING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO SAT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE (15-45% POPS NE AND 50-65%
SW). GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LOW-END POPS CONTINUE INTO SUN WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS LOW. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPS DON'T COOL
MUCH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME CIRRUS. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY APART FROM A PERIOD OF SCT
CIRRUS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING (~20-02Z).
OTHERWISE, CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER E WINDS
AROUND 8 KT THIS AFTERNOON IS ECG.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES LATER
THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. THIS BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS (HIGHEST CHC S).
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
- S TO SW WINDS INCREASE LATER WED INTO THU WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
BROAD 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KT. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FOOT IN THE
BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT OFFSHORE (HIGHEST S). A PERIOD OF BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLOWLY TRANSLATES OFFSHORE. WINDS
BECOME SE 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S ON WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS S AND SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-
20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AND
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SUSTAINED SCA CONDITIONS IS
LOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND AT THIS
TIME. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT WITH
THE BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. NOT MUCH COLD OR DRY AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO NOT
EXPECTING STRONG NW WINDS IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. FLOW TURNS
ONSHORE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT IN THE
BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-4 FT S AND 4-
5 FT N.
A MODERATE RIP RISK CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES TODAY AS
LINGERING SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDE.
COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS LAST EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE LARGELY UNDER PERFORMED.
ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE FOR BAY SIDE PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND PERHAPS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN POTOMAC SHORE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OR STATEMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
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