367
FXUS61 KAKQ 220732
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
332 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY COOLER TO START OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TODAY, FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF RAIN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD, BUT THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND LEAD TO MORE
CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....GENERALLY COOLER TO START OFF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND SATURDAY.
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY AND BROUGHT DECENT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA, WITH A WEAK
LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE VA/NC BORDER. LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ASIDE FROM
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF OUR NC COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND THICK CLOUD
COVER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION.
A COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP THAT HAS SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAY. FORECAST
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BRINGS
IN A VERY STABLE AIRMASS TODAY, HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE FRONT SITUATED RIGHT ACROSS OUR
NE NC COUNTIES, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ANY RAINFALL
WILL PAN OUT ACROSS THAT AREA AND SE VA. THE FORECAST HAS CONTINUED
TO TREND DOWNWARDS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 0.10" FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF RICHMOND
TODAY. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS AREA MOSTLY DRY WITH THE
OCCASIONAL BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS
WHERE MOST RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED TODAY, THOUGH RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 0.50" TODAY DUE TO THE
LACK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS PINNED TO OUR SOUTH A BIT LONGER, THEREFORE
HOLDING THE WEDGE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY MORE STABLE AS
LOW-LEVEL NE MARINE FLOW PERSISTS, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES (LOWER
80S) CONFINED TO THE SE, WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SE
TO NW, BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF THE FRONT MOVE AT THE PACE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. IF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS ABLE TO WARM
UP, THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO RETURN TO THE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY, BUT THIS
WILL AGAIN HINGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAD HOLDING THE FRONT IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, BUT THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AND
LEAD TO MORE CHANCES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO
FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAGNANT FLOW
WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING
HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST ARE QUITE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH QUICK WARMING IS
LIKELY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE THE WEEKEND CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
A WASHOUT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY'VE BEEN OF LATE
EACH DAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN AFTER
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE
LOCAL AREA COULD SEE BETWEEN 2.0-2.5" THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITHIN
THE ONGOING UNSETTLED PATTERN.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 133 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN LINGERING THIS MORNING. THIS LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD AT RIC AND SBY. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY ECG)
WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN, BUT TIMING THIS BREAK IS A
LITTLE TRICKY, SO WILL TRY AND NARROW DOWN A TIMEFRAME WITH THE NEXT
TAF UPDATE. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE ANY BREAKS IN THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS
(20-25 KTS AT SBY) THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD IFR) ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST (OR REDEVELOP IF THEY IMPROVE) FRI NIGHT, AND THEN
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A
COOL, WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR MAY LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW. CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED
WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED WINDS PERSIST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
A STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES JUST S OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
TO OUR N, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC, RIDGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT NE WINDS MOSTLY IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS ARE A LITTLE LOWER
CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN THE NC WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS (WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT) AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN N OF THE FRONT; SO, AS THE FRONT LIFTS N SATURDAY, THE HIGHER
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS SATURDAY (THOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED DUE TO
LINGERING SEAS). THE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE S-SE FOR
ALL OF OUR WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS SPEEDS WILL ALSO TREND LOWER AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 4-5 FT
ACROSS THE OCEAN THIS MORNING. WAVES ARE 2-4 FT IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, HIGHEST NEAR THE MOUTH. SEAS BUILD FURTHER BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY N OF CAPE CHARLES, WITH WIDESPREAD 6-8 FT
SEAS. CLOSER TO THE FRONT (NC/VA BORDER AND POINTS S), WHERE WINDS
WILL BE LOWER, SEAS WILL LIKELY INSTEAD REMAIN IT THE 4-5 FT RANGE.
ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY LINGER INTO MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT
GRADUALLY TREND LOWER AS WINDS DECREASE. SUB-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WASHING
MACHINE EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES TO END THE WORK AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING
EASTERLY, SHORT-PERIOD SWELL. HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656.
DISCUSSION...RMM/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...SW
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