844
FXUS61 KAKQ 020722
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
322 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PIEDMONT COUNTIES AND
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105F EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
2) THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105F EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
A LATE SUMMER (OR EARLY FALL, DEPENDING ON WHAT DEFINITION YOU
PREFER) HEAT WAVE REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE HEAT
SHOULD PEAK TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A STRONG UL RIDGE BUILDS, ITS AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN, LEADING TO WINDS
BECOMING NE AND PROVIDING A LITTLE BIT OF RELATIVE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT NEAR THE COAST. INLAND TEMPS PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 102 AND 106 WHILE COASTAL AREAS STAY IN THE 80S
AND LOW 90S. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY TO INCLUDE
OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AT OR EXCEEDING 105. THIS TIME
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE PARTY SINCE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE SW. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED TODAY'S HEAT
ADVISORIES THROUGH TOMORROW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. ADVISORIES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN FOLLOWING FORECAST
PACKAGES. THE HEAT CONTINUES FRIDAY, BUT A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD
MEAN SOME RELIEF, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE EXTENT OF
POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT,
BUT THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT AT LEAST NE NC AND SE VA GET
ANOTHER ROUND OF THEM. WE WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK FROM THE HOT
WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST IS NOT AS
HIGH AS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. TODAY HAS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE CAMS. IT IS ONE OF
THOSE DAYS WHERE THE CEILING FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS HIGH, BUT
THE CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW. STILL, IF STORMS
CAN FORM NEAR THE LOCAL AREA THERE IS CHANCE THAT THEY JUST
RIDE THE BOUNDARY (BACKDOOR FRONT) SOUTH AND SWEEP THROUGH WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. SOME OF THE MORE TYPICALLY
AGGRESSIVE CAMS, SUCH AT THE NAM3K, DEPICT THIS VERY SCENARIO
AND HAVE AN MCS SHOOTING DOWN THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CLIPPING
THE NE AND A MARGINAL DOWN TO ROUGHLY THE US-460 CORRIDOR.
THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN LATE IN THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, A SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME FRIDAY, LIKELY LATE. AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, BUT COVERAGE STILL LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE AND
THESE CHANCES ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON WHERE THAT BACKDOOR FRONT IS
SITUATED. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF FORCING, SHEAR, AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT TO OUR N WILL FINALLY MAKE APPRECIABLE PROGRESS AND DESCEND
INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. ALOFT, NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE NE/MID-ATLANTIC COAST, INCREASING THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
THIS ALL SUGGESTS A BONAFIDE SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
AND LARGE HAIL. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THURSDAY TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA, AND A SIMILAR OUTLOOK IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE UPDATED DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY. THE RISK FOR STORMS (AND ANY
POTENTIAL SVR WX) SATURDAY IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT IS
SITUATED DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR 06Z/02 TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW WHICH WILL SWITCH WINDS
AROUND THE THE NE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND PERHAPS BRING
MVFR CIGS TO SBY STARTING MID-MORNING. LIGHT SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT RIC AND PROBABLY ECG THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW GIVEN
THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE HIGH-RES MODELS. IF STORMS MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA, IT LIKELY WOULDN'T IMPACT THE TERMINALS UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING. THEREFORE, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW. THE
12Z MODELS WILL HOPEFULLY BRING SOME CLARITY.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS SET TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CAUSE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
MARINE
S OF 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY BRING
ELEVATED WINDS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN LEADING TO LIGHT (~5 TO 10 KNOT) S-SW WINDS
OVER THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS, NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE DELAWARE BAY. THE COLD FRONT
BUCKLES TO THE SW AND APPROACHES THE FAR NE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH TO ROUGHLY THE VA/NC BORDER BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS TURN
AROUND TO THE NE-E ~10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER WITH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS SUGGESTING A SIMILAR
LOWER FORECASTED WINDS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE WATER IS VERY WARM
AND WITH A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA, THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP TODAY,
BECOMING EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. ANY
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS.
MARINERS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY, 9/4:
RICHMOND: RECORD HIGH:
WED (9/2) 101/2014
THU (9/3) 99/1984
FRI (9/4) 98/2023
NORFOLK: RECORD HIGH:
WED (9/2) 99/2014
THU (9/3) 97/1977
FRI (9/4) 96/1985
SALISBURY: RECORD HIGH:
WED (9/2) 97/2014
THU (9/3) 99/1930
FRI (9/4) 95/1944
ELIZABETH CITY: RECORD HIGH:
WED (9/2) 96/1943
THU (9/3) 97/2020
FRI (9/4) 98/1944
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092-097-509>520-
528-529.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/NB
CLIMATE...AJB
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