264
FXUS61 KAKQ 070335
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO MILDER,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING IN SOME MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 830 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MANY COMMUNITIES THAT
ARE STILL IN THEIR GROWING SEASON.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AS A
RESULT, WINDS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL
RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT, SO
AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF EVEN SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE, INLAND NE NORTH CAROLINA,
AND A MAJORITY OF OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES THAT ARE STILL IN THEIR
GROWING SEASON (EXCLUDING SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES). THE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 8 AM TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL NEGATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT WILL START TO WEAKEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY
ORIENTED FROM THE MD EASTERN SHORE COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT.
QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 0.10" FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
OVERNIGHT, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
DUE TO THE WEAK CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE CONTINUED SW-W
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SATURDAY, MAKING FOR QUITE A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LIKELY TO BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING WARM AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY BREEZY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT, SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AND A HARD FREEZE LIKELY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY STARTING
LATER THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL
TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, DRAGGING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S LIKELY
(ESPECIALLY E/SE). SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET, GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME, AND THUS THUNDER WORDING HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED.
DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO AS LOW
AS -10C BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
TUESDAY DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM
THE WEEKEND, THEY WILL NOT STICK AROUND VERY LONG. THE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
AT THIS TIME COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 60 DEGREES, CAUSING SOME WEATHER
WHIPLASH.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS BECAME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
TONIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT (WEAK) FRONT,
WHICH CROSSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS, THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AT
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NNW WINDS ARE
FORECAST BY MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 1030 PM EST THURSDAY...
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN N OF PARRAMORE AND BAY N OF WINDMILL.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH ELEVATED WINDS EXTENDING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING
TOWARDS SUNRISE FRI MORNING.
THE REPRIEVE IN THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS S-SW WINDS
INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND A DRY COLD APPROACHES FROM THE W/NW. LOCAL WIND PROBS
SUGGEST SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE, THE BAY N OF WINDMILL PT, AND THE OCEAN N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE 15-20 KT IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 15- 25 KT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THE HEADLINES
FARTHER SOUTH AS IT IS MORE MARGINAL. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT THEN ABRUPTLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHWARD
SURGE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE ~06Z/1 AM TIMEFRAME MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG
SCAS LIKELY AND BRIEF GUSTS >34 KT POSSIBLE. SCA- LEVEL WINDS
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF AIRMASS CHANGE (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10 C) OVER
STILL-RELATIVELY MILD WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. CURRENT WIND PROBABILITIES ARE ~30% IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 50-70% ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR FREQUENT >34
KT GUSTS AND THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
TIMING DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE RESOLVED.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME LOW-END PROBABILITIES (AROUND 20%)
FOR >43 KT GUSTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS, SO MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEGRADED THEN. REGARDLESS, THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED AS SOON
AS FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS THEN
FAVORS WINDS TURNING WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, POTENTIALLY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.
SEAS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE FURTHER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 2-4 FT IN THE BAY (HIGHEST N OF NEW PT
COMFORT) AND 4-6 FT ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A BENIGN SEA STATE THEN RETURNS LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY, BUT ANOMALIES HAVE SLOWLY
TICKED UP WITH THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. THE LATEST TIDAL FORECASTS
HAVE MOST TIDAL GAUGES JUST ABOVE -1 FT MLLW WITH THE NEXT FEW LOW
TIDES, WITH A FEW VULNERABLE LOCATIONS IN THE TIDAL JAME RIVER AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST (E.G., SMITHFIELD AND CHINCOTEAGUE)
EXPECTED DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW -1 FT MLLW. OVERALL, NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW WATER, SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ021-022-024.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>014-030.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ065-075-076-
079>085-087>090-092-093-096-512>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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