046
FXUS61 KAKQ 082325
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
725 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH TO THE NORTH-SIDE
OF THE RICHMOND METRO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK AND
SOUTHEAST MD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY FROM THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE RICHMOND METRO AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
NECK AND SOUTHEAST MD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
SUNDAY, MAINLY DRY MONDAY, WITH DIURNAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY FROM THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
FROM THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE RICHMOND METRO AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN NECK AND SOUTHEAST MD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IN VICINITY OF A LEE SIDE
TROUGH. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS
RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 25-30KT, AND SHOULD
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MLCAPE HAS REACHED
2000-2500J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS, AND MAY EVENING INCREASE TO
2500-3000J/KG OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. DCAPE IS ABOUT
800-1000J/KG AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH PEAK
HEATING, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8C/KM, AND MAX 2-6KM
AGL LAPSE RATES ARE EVEN ~7C/KM PER THE LATEST ANALYSIS. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, INITIAL CELLULAR CONVECTION
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS, WITH THE MAIN
POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEING HOW
WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION BECOMES. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH 800-1000J/KG OF DCAPE AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
INITIAL CELLULAR CONVECTION. SPC EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING TO BASICALLY I-64 FROM THE
LOUISA/FLUVANNA LINE TO THE NORTH- SIDE OF THE RIC METRO, THEN
EASTWARD TO ABOUT WALLOPS ISLAND. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED
IMMEDIATELY N OF THE LOCAL AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN A
MARGINAL ERO. HOWEVER, SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOTION
TO LIMIT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES SUNDAY, MAINLY DRY MONDAY, WITH DIURNAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL SUNDAY
AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THRIVE OFF THE COAST CONTINUING TO USHER
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE. OVERALL A RATHER TYPICAL STAGNANT LATE
SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM-SIDE OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES. DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX OUT THROUGH
THE DAY AND REMAIN IN THE LOW TO LOCALLY MID 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE MIX OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S, BUT LOCALLY ~105F FROM THE
NORTHERN SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THOUGH SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON
ROADS.
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
LINGER SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH THE SEA-BREEZE COULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY. HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION, BUT THE
12Z/08 HREF SUGGESTS AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
MAINLY DRY MONDAY WITH GENERALLY DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW.
POTENTIALLY MORE UNSETTLED ENERGETIC WNW FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY (HIGHEST POPS N) AS A STRONGER TROUGH DIVES SE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. THIS TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS GENERALLY BEEN LOWER
THIS EVENING AND DON'T EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY BE SCT IN NATURE TONIGHT WITH
5-10 KT SW WINDS. A WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY, AND THIS ALONG WITH THE SEA- BREEZE COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS (15-25% CHC) SUNDAY AFTN. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY
BE W/WSW 8-12 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY
MONDAY, WITH A 20-40% CHC OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND ~20% THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS AFTERNOON, BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OFFSHORE, KEEPING S-SW FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW S-SW WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND
3 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE RUNNING
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS SHIFT TO THE S OR SSE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL SEABREEZE INFLUENCES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT.
GUSTS ~25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A S TO SW WIND
AVERAGING ~10 KNOTS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE OF A TRUE SEA-
BREEZE WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO SE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING,
BEFORE AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OR AT LEAST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH, GETTING CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW
AND INCREASE, BUT ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE SHORT-
LIVED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...AJZ/SW
MARINE...AJB
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