002
FXUS61 KAKQ 051115
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
715 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY, BEFORE LINGERING
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO CHANCES OF
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE CAROLINA COAST BRINGS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY S/SE, ALONG
WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GA/SC COAST, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A
SHEARED UPPER LOW THAT LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NE GULF
24 HOURS AGO. AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE, WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAVANNAH, GA.
LOCALLY, HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM S-N EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THERE IS NOW DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS NE IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND REACHES THE NC OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT, BUT STRUGGLES TO
FALL TO 1010MB. THE UPPER FEATURE IS A LITTLE QUICKER, BUT THEN
STALLS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO
ADVANCE N THIS MORNING AS THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN VA AND
NE NC BY THIS AFTN WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FORECAST. THIS
WILL MAINLY BE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER GIVEN SOME ELEVATED (NON-SURFACE BASED)
INSTABILITY DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FARTHER N, MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL WITH POPS 20% OR LESS FROM CENTRAL VA TO
THE EASTERN SHORE. SHOWERS POTENTIALLY SPREAD N FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR E DUE TO SUPPORT FROM THE LINGERING UPPER SYSTEM, BUT
OVERALL LESS ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
OVERALL, QPF RANGES FROM 0.25-0.5" FOR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AND
TAPERS DOWN TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH N. SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL THE THREAT OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED AND LOCALLY THE MARGINAL DAY 1
ERO ONLY EXTENDS IN TO NE NC.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F S WITH
LOWER CLOUDS/SHOWERS, AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S N WITH ONLY
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70F.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC BECOMES ZONAL
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM TX ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE LINGERING SHORTWAVE TO DAMPEN AND PUSH OFFSHORE.
OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED FRIDAY. THEREFORE, RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIMITED, WITH A 20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING, AND THEN A 20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
DRIFTING INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY, WHICH WILL HOLD HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F, WHILE PARTIAL CLEARING WELL INLAND WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DROP
INTO THE MID 60S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
DAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE LATER IN
THE DAY WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL FEATURE. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES (500-700MB WINDS AVG 30-40KT). THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTN, THEN SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO
SUPPORT A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND POPS REMAIN THE
50-60% RANGE FOR INLAND AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SLIDING TO THE
SE IN THE EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70F, INSTABILITY DOES LOOK FAVORABLE (ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED
WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL FLOW) FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS S. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S N
TO THE UPPER 80S S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY.
- SOMEWHAT DRIER MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE 00Z/05 GUIDANCE IS FOR THE
LINGERING FRONT TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY, AND EPS/GEFS
DEPICT AN INCREASE IN PW ANOMALIES TO 130-140% OF NORMAL DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. THEREFORE, POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 40-60%
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, PW ANOMALIES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION, SO POPS ARE MAINLY 20% OR LESS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
20-30% NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY RETURN
TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F N TO THE MID 80S S WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE REGION. MONDAY IS THE WARMEST DAY AT THIS POINT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S, AND THEN LOWER/MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE AS OF 11Z. MEANWHILE,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE SC COAST. VFR WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY TRACKS NE ALONG THE COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT REACHING THE
NC OUTER BANKS TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN TODAY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE N WILL LIMIT
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT LOWER CIGS AND SHOWERS TODAY. THE BEST CHC
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM PRIOR TO 21Z ARE AT ECG WITH MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT ECG BY THIS AFTN. SHOWERS (WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF TSTMS) ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SE VA BY THIS
EVENING, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP-CUT OFF TO THE N, WITH
ONLY A 20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS AT RIC AND 15% OR LESS AT SBY.
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TONIGHT, WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, SBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE S/SW 5-10KT TODAY AND THEN SHIFT TO SE TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW SATURDAY BRINGING A 50-60% CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH A HIGH CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING S OF THE REGION MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST (~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT) DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT.
- A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, AND
THIS COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO PART OF THE MARINE AREA
(MAINLY FOR SEAS) ON FRIDAY WITH E-SE WINDS.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS COULD BRING VERY
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH 10-15
KT S- SW WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. PREVAILING SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
THE WIND WILL BECOME S-SE DURING THE LATE AFTN THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT WINDS MAY BE A KNOT OR TWO LOWER THAN
THEY WERE YESTERDAY, AND LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT
WINDS ARE 10% OR LESS ON THE BAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-3 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES
WILL BE 1-3 FT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF A SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
BUT THE 00Z/05 MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THE WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
THROUGH NC TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WHILE GRADUALLY
DEEPENING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE LOW LIKELY DOES NOT
DEEPEN FAST ENOUGH FOR E-SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FOR
A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD (ALTHOUGH STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A SHORT PERIOD
OF 15-20 KT WINDS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK IF IT
DEEPENS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST). WILL GO BETWEEN
NBM75PCT AND NBM90PCT FOR WINDS ON FRIDAY, WHICH GIVES A PERIOD
OF ~15 KT WINDS (W/ GUSTS TO 20 KT) ON FRI FOR MUCH OF THE
MARINE AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE WINDS/EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW,
INCREASING SE SWELL PRODUCED BY THE LOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
INCREASE TO 4-5 FT BY FRI AFTN (ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST FOR SEAS
HAS TRENDED DOWN A BIT FROM YESTERDAY AS WELL). AS SUCH, WILL
HOLD OFF ON SCAS AS IT IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS OUT AND IT
LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT ATTM. OF COURSE, THINGS COULD CHANGE
AND THERE IS MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL GIVEN THAT
THE LOW IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE FEATURE. WHILE WINDS
DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KT BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING, 4-5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF FRI NIGHT (ESPECIALLY N). PREVAILING SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND (ALTHOUGH
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WHICH COULD NECESSITATE
SMWS).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI
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