530
FXUS61 KAKQ 292344
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
744 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BAYSIDE OF THE LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE.
- UPDATED DISCUSSIONS
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK,
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) LOW-END TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BAYSIDE OF
THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN
PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM
THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE COAST OF MAINE AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
FARTHER OFFSHORE TO ATLANTIC CANADA, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FOR MOST
OF OUR REGION COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT OF A COLD POOL ALOFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY
WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLE, MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FOR
TONIGHT, THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND AND LIGHT
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS. THE SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR FOG OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF THE SKY DOES SEE
CLEARING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUDS STAY MORE PREVALENT,
THEN FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE LESS LIKELY SO CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW IN THE EXTENT OF THIS LATER TONIGHT, BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
PIEDMONT TO THE MID-UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F NEAR THE COAST IN THE
SE. ON WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY
SKY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE S-SE BY AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO KEEP SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND AND IF FOG DOES
MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT, IT COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL RISE TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
NORTH AND LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING VERY WARM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW INCREASES. STILL
NOT ANTICIPATING RECORD HIGHS, BUT HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S
THURSDAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY IS ABOUT 10-15 F
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF OCTOBER AND QUALIFIES AS
"UNSEASONABLY WARM".
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS TO OPEN
UP BY MIDWEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF TC POLO
AND LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE AND ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST AND MID-SOUTH, LIKELY REACHING OUR REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE
PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRACK OF THESE FEATURES, BUT A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, THEN STALL, WITH
ADDITIONAL (AND MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE) RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL WINDSHIFT SATURDAY, THE
HIGHER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. ONE SIGNAL COMMON TO ALL
GUIDANCE, EVEN THIS FAR OUT, IS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN PWATS,
WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING 1.5-2" BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE (ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT). IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, INCREASED
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND ONSHORE FLOW FAVOR COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT ABNORMALLY SO. HIGHS
SATURDAY LIKELY RANGE THROUGH THE 70S AND 80S, WITH HIGHER POPS
AND CLOUD COVER BRINGING COOLER UPPER 60S AND 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH OF DRIER
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS INTO THE 40S AND
50S- THIS IS STILL MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LOW-END TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
BAYSIDE OF THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
LOW-END TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT VULNERABLE SITES MOSTLY
DUE TO THE LUNAR CYCLE AND RESULTING HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. IT IS
GENERALLY ACTION STAGE NUISANCE FLOODING, BUT A FEW SITES SUCH AS
BISHOPS HEAD AND CRISFIELD WILL ENTER MINOR STAGE WITH THE UPCOMING
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THE
BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...
BKN-OVC VFR CIGS HANG ON THIS EVENING AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OVER THE AREA. SLOW CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH WE
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. IF WE CLEAR
OUT FAST ENOUGH, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE, AND
HAVE MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW (THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ATTM). ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. MAINLY VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SE
WEDNESDAY UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL,
PREVAILING VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA AND SLIDES OFFSHORE. S-SW
WINDS BECOME ELEVATED/BREEZY ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE AREA HAS LED TO
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND GENERALLY 5KT
OR LESS. SEAS ARE AROUND 2FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY/RIVERS ARE 1FT OR
LESS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY, SO THE SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THEN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10KT WED
NIGHT INTO THU AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. S WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT ON FRIDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-3FT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT, THEN AROUND 3FT AND UP TO 4FT IN NORTHERN
WATERS ON FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND AT AROUND 15KT. NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS AS OF NOW LOOKS
TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AC/KMC
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