462
FXUS61 KAKQ 121917
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL TOTALS TO
3-5".
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL
TOTALS TO 3-5".
A QUASI WEST-EAST UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM KY
THROUGH VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE LOCALLY ALREADY EXCEEDED 2.5-3". SHOWERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE GIVEN PWATS OF 2"+. ADDITIONALLY, ACARS SOUNDINGS
SHOW TALL, SKINNY CAPE, DECENT UPPER LEVEL W WINDS FOR VENTING
CONVECTION (45-50 KT ANVIL LEVEL STORM RELATIVE WINDS ON
MESOANALYSIS), AND A WIND PROFILE THAT GOES FROM NE SURFACE
WINDS TO N WINDS IN THE MID- LEVELS BELOW 500MB TO W WINDS AT
500MB AND ABOVE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES HAS ALLOWED
FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN COLLABORATION WITH WPC, A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH TO
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5" ARE POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE CENTRAL TO SOUTH- CENTRAL VA INTO
NE NC WHERE A SWATH OF 1.5-3"+ HAS ALREADY OCCURRED SINCE LAST
NIGHT. THE 12Z HREF HAD A 30% PROB FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS ACROSS THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 10-30% CHANCE ACROSS NE NC
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND RECENT RAINFALL
ALLOWING FOR SOILS TO BECOME SATURATED IN SOME LOCATIONS, HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR. THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING FOR VA AND 6 AM MON FOR NE NC. THE LONGER DURATION OF
THE WATCH ACROSS NE NC IS DUE TO THE HREF SHOWING 10-30% PROBS
FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
THIS ROUND OF PRECIP AND THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ENDED EARLY IF
IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF NE NC.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ON
MON. POPS HAVE LOWERED TO 15-45% SOUTH OF US-460 ON MON WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN MON WOULD LIKELY BE STRATIFORM AND LIGHT. DRIER
WEATHER ARRIVES LATE MON THROUGH MID-WEEK. WILL NOTE THAT SPC
HAS A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT FRI (JULY 17), HOWEVER,
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WILL NOTE THAT MID 80S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA ON MON IF
PRECIP STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
INLAND (AWAY FROM THE COAST) TONIGHT AND LOW-MID 60S MON NIGHT
(70S ALONG THE VA/NC COASTLINE). A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S MON
NIGHT IF CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT! AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN MOVE OVERHEAD, BRINGING THE RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUE (UPPER 80S FOR MOST). A WARMUP WED-SAT IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. MID-UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE ON THU. HEAT
INDICES LOOK TO BE NEAR 100F DURING THESE DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A QUASI WEST-EAST UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM KY
THROUGH VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS ARE
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE. AS SUCH, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY (WHERE DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN) THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HAVE ADDED TEMPOS FOR IFR VIS DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WHILE OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS
LOW GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF CONVECTION. SHOWERS GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS ACROSS NE
NC (POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ECG) OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE VCSH FOR
THE ECG TAF OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWERS WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
CONVECTION ENDS THIS EVENING. ECG MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR CIGS. CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ECG. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HAS STARTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
NEAR THE CAPES THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS
HAVE REMAINED BELOW MWS CRITERIA SO FAR. THE GRADIENT HAS STARTED TO
TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS, WITH A FEW MARINE OBSERVATION SITES MEASURING 15-
20 KTS AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS ARRIVAL IN THAT AREA. WAVES IN THE BAY
ARE 1 TO 3 FT, WHILE SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE BEING MEASURED
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NE/ENE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BAY, YORK AND
JAMES, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL LINGER INTO MIDDAY MONDAY
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONT, THOUGH THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS SUGGESTING THEY MAY DROP
OFF A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT CURRITUCK SOUND, THE YORK AND LOWER JAMES RIVERS,
CHESAPEAKE BAY STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE MIDDLE BAY
NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT DROPPING OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
THE LOWER BAY (INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE BAY), ADJACENT VA RIVERS
AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, AN E-SE SWELL WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NC COASTAL WATERS) THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH 3-4 FT WAVES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY). AN SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND STARTING EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR 5
FT SEAS. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A MODERATE RIP RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY DUE TO
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. LINGERING STRONG E-NE
WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP RISK MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
BEACHES. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING, LONGER-PERIOD SWELL (~7 SEC) WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES. DESPITE WINDS
AND SEAS START TO RELAX ON TUESDAY, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH RIP
RISKS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES DUE TO THE CONTINUED LONGER-
PERIOD SWELL OF ~4 FT AND SHORE NORMAL FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY, SEAS WILL
HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH AND WINDS WILL BECOMING OFFSHORE BEFORE
BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE SHORE, SO THE RIP RISK WILL LIKELY START TO
COME DOWN.
COASTAL FLOODING: TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO A PERIOD OF KING
TIDES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGHER OF EACH DAILY HIGH TIDE
(THE EVENING HIGH TIDE) TO RISE INTO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE
EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE, ELEVATED NE/E WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOCAL TIDAL RIVERS,
AND POTENTIALLY AT DUCK AND WACHAPREAGUE. HAVE EXPANDED THE
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO INCLUDE VA BEACH, YORK COUNTY, AND
THE MIDDLE PENINSULA AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE NUISANCE FLOODING.
IF ANY OF THE TIDES START TO OVERPERFORM, A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-061-
065>069-079>083-087>090-092-097-098-512>516-523>525-
528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...NB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page