575
FXUS61 KRLX 190718
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
318 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONT THIS
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
* RAIN AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OH, NE KY, AND NW WV.
* ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD EDGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
PRECEDING THE FRONT. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
I-64 AND WEST OF I-79 TODAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS TO FORM IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN ANY
SEVERE STORMS TODAY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE AS THE FRONT
SINKS DOWN INTO THE AREA.
WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES TO THE NORTHWEST, PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER DRY. IN THIS AREA, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
REDEVELOP AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HOVER INTO THE 20S TO 30S
AMID BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S IN THE LOWLANDS
AND 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS THEN
RANGE FROM 50S TO 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST CYCLE SUGGEST A QUIETER END TO THE
WEEKEND IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS RUNS. STRONG RIDGING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL COMPRESS MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK INTO
THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY WHERE THE NEXT SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO EVOLVE. A NEARBY WARM FRONT, LEFT BEHIND BY A PREVIOUS
DISTURBANCE, WILL LIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE, AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE OUTSIDE OF SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS CONCEALED
BENEATH PARTLY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S TO LOW 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ROUND UP A PLETHORA OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW VENTURING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE NUDGED
OFFSHORE AS THE LOW AND ITS PARENT TROUGH DRIVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. ATTACHED TO THE LOW WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND DOWN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST, AND WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON MONDAY. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH
FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY, AS THE BEST VALUES LOOK TO EVADE US AND REMAIN CLOSELY
CONFINED TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW, SUGGESTING OUR GREAT LAKE
FORECAST OFFICES HAVING THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO FALTER AND
BREAK APART LATE MONDAY EVENING AS IT ENCROACHES CENTRAL
APPALACHIA. TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SOMETIME
BETWEEN THE CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT, AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, WILL GRADUALLY COMPLETE ITS
PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PIVOTS
INTO CANADA. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY BECOME CONFINED TO OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MITIGATING ANY
MENTIONING OF THUNDER. THIS FRONT BECOMES DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT GROWS STATIONARY IN
NATURE. THIS BOLSTERS LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR THE
COALFIELDS AND WV FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OUR
NORTHERN ZONES RELISH IN TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE. A BRIEF
COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY YIELD A MORE
SEASONABLE DAY ON TUESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S BEFORE REBOUNDING
UNDER WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR MIDWEEK.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS POISED TO REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED STATE BEYOND
MIDWEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES FOR OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
WHILE STILL FAR OFF FROM A CONSISTENT SOLUTION AMONGST THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SUITE, DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE STORMS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AMID UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIKELY APPROACHING PKB/CKB
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PERIODIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL THE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN OR STORMS, WHILE
VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AS MOISTURE INCREASES LATE
DAY INTO THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME TERMINALS MAY GUST INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE THIS
MORNING, LLWS WILL PERSIST AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PASSES
OVER THE AREA. WIND SHEAR THEN TAPERS OFF AS THE JET LIFTS AND
MORE ROBUST GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN AND STORMS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 04/19/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB
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