503
FXUS61 KRLX 212332
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT. MOSTLY DRY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 725 PM MONDAY...
REDUCED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. COLD FRONT SLOWLY ENTERING
NORTHERN SE OHIO ZONES, WITH ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG FRONT. ALTHOUGH
REDUCED POPS, COULD STILL SEE A POP UP SHOWER ANYWHERE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
A LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE REGION
AT THIS HOUR IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE SOME MODEST WARMING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE, NOT SEEING MUCH INSTABILITY WITH THE INITIAL WAVE AS
INFERRED BY LACK OF APPRECIABLE CLOUD TOP GLACIATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TRAILING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, COOLER AIR ALOFT
AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL
DRIFT OVER THE REGION. WHILE KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY
DECENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 50+KTS AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR OF 30+KTS, THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL BE
ABLE TO OCCUR THROUGH PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED STOUT FLOW ALOFT, THINK ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT COULDN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO GIVEN LOW LEVEL TURNING AND DECENT LOW LEVEL CAPE, BUT NON-
DISCRETE NATURE OF CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL. WITH THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT COULD
SEE SOME DECENT LITTLE SPURTS OF SMALL HAIL. SHOULD SEE ANY
THREAT FOR STRONGER OR SEVERE STORMS WANING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MODESTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1159 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THOSE RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH A LONG,
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION. EVEN
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS WAVES OF 500-MB
VORTICITY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
NBM SURFACE-BASED CAPE PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ARE
GENERALLY 70-80% FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. HOWEVER, NBM PROBABILITIES OF CAPE
MEETING OR EXCEEDING 1,000 J/KG ARE ONLY ABOUT 20% OR LESS AREAWIDE.
6 HOUR PROB-THUNDER GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY 30-40% ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY FROM 2 PM THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION, 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK, WITH MODELS ONLY PROJECTING ONLY ABOUT 20-30 KTS OF
SHEAR AREAWIDE. THEREFORE, EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LIMITED CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PREVENT THEM FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-
35 KTS SATURDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY BECAUSE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA AT THAT TIME. THE BEST INSTABILITY
SATURDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
AT THIS TIME, THE CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IS LOW. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 0.50" OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ARE GENERALLY 50-60%, BUT
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH DROP TO 20% OR LESS AREAWIDE.
WE ARE EXPECTING THIS TO BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, BRIEFLY
BRINGING THE RETURN OF DRY WEATHER INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY DRY OUT BY 06Z TO 09Z IF NOT SOONER, BUT AREAS OF FOG
OR LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FOR NOW, WAS CONSERVATIVE
ON FOG DEVELOPMENT, AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN, WITH THE
THOUGHT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT WIND WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG. NEVERTHELESS, DID CODE IN AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING AT KBKW, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 12-14Z TUESDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF ANY FOG OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD BE
WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M M M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H M H H H M H M M M H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SL
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