413
FXUS61 KRLX 071802
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
202 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK, WITH
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE EFFECTS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. OVERALL, THE THREAT OF SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW, BUT NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS EXPECTED, WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS/DCAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY OVER 1000 J/KG. LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE RATHER LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD, BUT ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED, AS BROAD TROUGHING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY, SOME OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR MORNING STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, SHOULD LIFT INTO A VFR SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS FIELD 3500-5000 FT AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON
MAY IMPACT MOST ANY TAF SITE, AND TEMPO GROUPS WERE CODED UP
FOR MOST OF THEM, WITH VCTS WAS CODED UP ALL SITES. ANY
THUNDERSTORM CAN BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEND TO WANE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT
A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN
SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT
VLIFR DENSE FOG WAS ONLY CODED UP FOR EKN FOR NOW. HOWEVER, A
DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING INCREASES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG FORMATION AT OTHER SITES, AND OF FOG AND
STRATUS LINGERING LONGER SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FOG AND
STRATUS ARE GONE, MVFR MORNING STRATOCUMULUS APPEARS LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY DAY AND LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TO CALM BY NIGHT, BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT MEDIUM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND
EARLY MORNING FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATION OF
FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
THE PREVIOUS DAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...TRM
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