988
FXUS61 KRLX 231115
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
715 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE
THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS
ALL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THERE HAS BEEN CURTAILED TO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS THEREOF. STILL ON TRACK FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THEN A COLD FRONT BY
MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK, SAVE FOR AN AFTERNOON SOUTHERN
MOUNTAIN SHOWER FRIDAY.
- 2) WEAK DISTURBANCES BRING SHOWERS, AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS, AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
- 3) CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE EDGING TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
WORK WEEK BRINGS DRIER AIR THAT WILL SUPPRESS EARLY MORNING FOG
AND PRECLUDE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM SUGGESTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THERE THEN HAS NO METEOROLOGICAL BASIS DUE TO AN
INVERSION AND THEREFORE STABLE CONDITIONS, AND THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT OUTLOOK.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY MODERATE, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY
MORNING, AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S, 60S SOUTH, THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME UP TO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE LOWLANDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AMID PERSISTENT LONG WAVE RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN
THE EAST, SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CROSS EACH EVENING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, FROM WHICH SHOWERS COULD ARISE IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY EVEN BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THERE
SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN AT LEAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL JETLET
SUNDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MOST ANYWHERE THERE IS PRECIPITATION,
WHICH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS WELL AS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR SLOW MODERATION THIS WEEKEND,
CLIMBING TO OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LONG WAVE RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST PERSISTS
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSE BENEATH
THE NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BENEATH THE MID/UPPER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
SAILING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
THEIR NEW DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, AS REFERENCED IN
THEIR LATEST EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION.
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THIS PATTERN
PERSISTS NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND
CLEARS EVERYTHING OUT, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT
COMING TO THE RESCUE BY MIDWEEK, AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK,
JUST ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BEFORE SETTLING TO OR A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE MODULATED BY THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING AT SITE KEKN THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PERSISTENCE OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 07/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...SL
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