305
FXUS61 KRLX 171802
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
202 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS WE REMAIN ANCHORED BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE. TO OUR EAST, A
COASTAL SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE DELMARVA REGION HAS PROMOTED
THICK CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA, WITH THE
WESTERN OUTSKIRTS ALSO FILTERING INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A BATCH OF RAIN SPIRALING ACROSS WESTERN
MARYLAND DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA, WITH SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS
PROGGED TO SINK DOWN INTO OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD STRONG AND MITIGATE PRECIPITATION FROM VENTURING
WEST OF THE I-79 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MOST EXCITEMENT
FOUND WITHIN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
OVERTAKES THE FORECAST BY LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER QUIET DAY WILL
THEN BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AMID MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, YIELDING DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SAILS DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
SETTLING OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE UP A
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AS THE PREDOMINATING SURFACE HIGH
BECOMES NUDGED OUT OF THE WAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL IMPOSE POSSIBILITIES FOR
RAIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE WEATHER RETURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE STATE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RIDGE
ALOFT BREAKING DOWN. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A COLD FRONT SLIDING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY
SERVE UP THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER, CENTRAL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SLOWER AND SLOWER WITH ITS ONSET ARRIVAL ACROSS EACH
FORECAST CYCLE, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR HOW THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FARE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. A COASTAL SYSTEM CHURNING OFF THE DELMARVA REGION WILL
PROVIDE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA, BUT SHOULD REFRAIN FROM REACHING OUR MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL ERODE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z/13Z AND OPEN UP TO
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE EXPECTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
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