339
FXUS61 KRLX 230636
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE TRIMMED A TIER OF COUNTIES OFF THE NORTHERN END OF THE
FLOOD WATCH.
AS OF 1142 PM MONDAY...
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SETUP OVER THE LAST 2-3
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WV COALFIELDS, IMPACTING PARTS OF
MINGO/LOGAN/BOONE/RALEIGH/FAYETTE COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS, WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF HIGH WATER HAVE COME IN, INCLUDING MUDSLIDES, WATER
RESCUES, AND EVEN A REPORT OF A WASHED OUT BRIDGE OR TWO.
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD, WITH UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CURRENTLY
WARNED AREAS. ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS THIS EVENING.
AS OF 832 PM MONDAY...
TRIMMED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO LOCATIONS WHICH ARE STILL SEEING
TRAINING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A FINAL
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. UPDATED 00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
AS OF 333 PM MONDAY...
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS N/NW OF A RATHER ROBUST SFC LOW FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WHERE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVERNIGHT SCENARIO.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A POTENT SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BRINGS
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, AS WELL
AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
- 2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAK WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
STILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL CURVATURE, BUT STORMS HAVE LARGELY
GROWN INTO A MESSY LINE LESSENING THE THREAT FOR ANY TORNADIC
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY EXITS TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
TRAINING CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIKEWISE, THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY AND PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
WAVE. OVERALL, 18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT VS THE VERY
AGGRESSIVE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT GIVEN THE
LOCALLY COMPROMISED NATURE OF SOILS FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BE LIMITED OR ABSENT.
AS OF 333 PM MONDAY...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ALBEIT LOWER, STILL CONTINUES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION IN OH AND KY.
AS THIS MOVES BACK INTO MUCH OF THE CWA, THERE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS FOR THE HYDRO ASPECT, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION, ESPECIALLY WHERE EARLIER ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 0.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN. AS WE SHIFT
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE N
AND NW TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOST CAMS NOW BRING THIS LOW ALONG/SOUTH OF OUT SOUTHERN CWA BORDER,
BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. SOLUTIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
MUCH OF THIS HAS THE CHANCE TO FALL OVER ALREADY ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE OVERNIGHT FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EXISTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 AND ALONG/EAST OF I-79.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA WITH
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD
COURTESY OF A MEANDERING FRONT THAT WILL SETUP (MORE OR LESS) EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO A
DEGREE, WITH PERIODIC MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AT TIMES ENHANCING RAINFALL ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (LATE WEEKEND) AS A
STOUT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AS TIME GOES ON.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING AREA-WIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. MVFR
VSBY REMAINS POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ANY PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT, WITH VSBY QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING,
THE MOUNTAINS BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH LINGERING LOW STRATUS
RESULTING IN CONTINUED REDUCED VSBY. CIGS WILL BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH MVFR POTENTIALLY LINGERING AT BKW/EKN
UNTIL ~ 18 TO 20Z. WIDESPREAD VFR THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS 6Z WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT NW TO N SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FROM LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. RETURN TO VFR DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY MAY ALSO VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H L H L L H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H M H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ013-015-
024>028-033-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JRM/JP/GW
AVIATION...GW
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