321
FXUS61 KRLX 222318
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN AND
SNOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 615 PM WEDNESDAY...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY...
CORRECTED FOR SNOWSHOE/RIDGES TEMPERATURE ERROR.
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST, WHICH WILL BECOME THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION, BUT BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN FOCUS UNTIL THAT TIME IS THE INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT
HAS BROUGHT OUR REGION BACK ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON, EVEN THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY, AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CWA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, BUT KEEP
THE POPS JUST TO THE WEST BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED, LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE NEARING ITS PEAK. EXPECT HINTS OF
INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE, TEMPERATURE, AND FLOWS FOR THE
END OF THE NEAR TERM, BUT THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL OCCLUSION OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE
OF EACH SOMEWHAT, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ALLOW AN ORGANIZED AND COMPLEX
SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE TRACK WILL BE DUE
EASTERLY, HOWEVER SHOULD TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TURN AND SLIDE
EAST JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL FINALLY BECOMING LIKELY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A MORE OR LESS WEST TO EAST TRAJECTORY. WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, NOT EXPECTING ANY MIX OR FREEZING
RAIN EVEN WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE LATE EVENING FOR THE
LOWLANDS. THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN A WINTRY MIX
TURNING TO MOSTLY SNOW AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. PWATS ARE AROUND
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORM SO EXPECT SOME DECENT QPF
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY MORNING AND BY THAT TIME FRAME MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW
BECOMING DOUBLE BARRELED AND SPAWNING A LOW ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS TO FURTHER ENHANCE MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD
FURTHER ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WITH
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE, IMPRESSIVE VORTICITY AND UPSLOPE
FLOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 235 PM WEDNESDAY...
BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE ANOMOUSLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE HELP OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW. THE LOWLANDS WILL STILL
EXPERIENCE RAIN ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO
EXPECTING LIGHTER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WITH THE HELP OF
CONTINUED UPSLOPE. HOW MUCH MORE ACCUMULATIONS MATERIALIZE WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG AND WHAT TRAJECTORY THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE AT LEAST 4 INCHES WITH THE GFS
SUGGESTING 10 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THOSE ARE CRUDE FORECAST
EXAMPLES, HOWEVER THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT THERE WILL BE
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO COMMUTERS DURING
THE WEEKEND. I RAISED ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY SINCE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP THAT LEE SIDE LOW AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THAN THE LOWLANDS WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING ALL
AROUND. WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM I AM SURE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
FROM NOW UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
WRAP AROUND FLOW FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL INITIATE SUFFICIENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE AND TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FILTER OUT WITH DRIER BEING ADVECTED IN. THERE MAY
BE LONG PERIODS OF BREAKS IN BETWEEN SHOWERS UNTIL FINALLY
HALTING IN ACTIVITY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT HAVE THAT TROUBLE
WITH MOISTURE STICKING IT OUT LONGER DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SNOW AMOUNTS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 615 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26/JZ
NEAR TERM...26/SL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...SL
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