898
FXUS61 KRLX 271802
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
102 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH NEXT
CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT
COLD HEADLINES WERE EXPIRED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MANY
LOWLAND COUNTIES WILL SEE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES TONIGHT. DID GO
AHEAD AND UPGRADE PERRY COUNTY OHIO TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
FOR TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND CHILLS IN THE MINUS
TEENS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS A LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED, LINGERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THURSDAY.
- 2) ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG
WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LOOKING NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STILL MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS CANADA, SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
GENERALLY, ONLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WITH AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. CURRENT COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD, AND WILL PLAN ON NO
CHANGES. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, IT WAS DECIDED
THAT ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL COLD HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY AT TIMES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THAT IT WILL BE HANDLED ON A DAY TO
DAY BASIS.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE/CLIPPER WILL AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, PARTICULARLY THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, PRIMARY HAZARD DURING
THIS TIME CONCERNS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/NOR'EASTER ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM, AND THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER, AS THE
TROUGH/UPPER LOW TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, SNOW WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. IT WILL ALL
REALLY DEPEND ON OVERALL EVOLUTION/PATH OF THE UPPER LOW, AND
WHETHER WE WILL SEE THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WELL OFF TO OUR
EAST, OR SPREADING WESTWARD INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THING TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MORE
CERTAINTY IS THE REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LOOKING LIKELY. THIS PROLONGED COLD WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESENT AN INCREASING THREAT TO WATER INFRASTRUCTURE,
THOSE REMAINING WITHOUT POWER FROM OUR PREVIOUS WINTER STORM, AND TO
THOSE WHO NEED ASSISTANCE WHO MAY LIVE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWERED
VISIBILITY, AND POSSIBLY LOCAL/TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY AFTER
04Z OR SOONER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING AT SITES KBKW
AND KEKN.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS
TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND 20 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, WHEN WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, AND
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE AS
STRONG IN MOST LOWLAND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ007>011-016>020-029>032-039-040-518-
520>522-524-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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