152
FXUS61 KRLX 152354
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
754 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WITH A HUMID AIRMASS SETTING UP.
VERY WARM, HUMID, UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS THE
REMNANTS OF BARRY CROSS. HEAT BUILDS FURTHER LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...
CONVECTION REFUSING TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AND HAVE MORE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE OHIO. IN CLEARING AREAS, EXPECT VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...
TODAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES AT THE SURFACE UNDER A RIDGE,
SANDWICHED BETWEEN NE TROUGHING AND THE REMNANTS OF TD BARRY, WHICH
IS TRAVELING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE,
WARM FRONTAL WAVES EMANATING FROM THE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN FLANK
EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN SPITE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, DEW POINTS IN THE 60'S TO
LOW-70'S ALLOW FOR STRONG DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION, LEADING TO
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW, ENHANCED BY
ANY WARM FRONTAL WAVE IN THE UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TODAY, A REMNANT
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA PROVIDES
THE FOCUS AND NORTHERN BOUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
TOMORROW, A SERIES OF FAIRLY WELL-FORCED WAVES ALOFT CROSS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH BARRY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION,
PROVIDING THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE FOCUS MAINLY IN
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS.
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WILL BE QUITE HEALTHY, ON THE ORDER OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE, PERHAPS SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE TUESDAY
WITH MORE AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 2" OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND REMAIN AROUND THERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, PROVIDING MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS AND THUS AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW MAXING AT
ABOUT 20 KTS THROUGH THE COLUMN DOESN'T ALLOW FOR TERRIBLY
ORGANIZED STORMS AS CELLS AND CELL CLUSTERS DRIFT NEWARD,
HOWEVER PRECIPITATION LOADING AND A LITTLE BIT OF MID- LEVEL DRY
AIR TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND WIND
GUSTS.
STUCK WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH I DID ELECT TO GO ON THE HIGHER END FOR DEW POINTS GIVEN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLAY. THIS YIELDS SOUPY MORNINGS WITH AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG LIMITED ONLY INCREASING FLOW ALOFT OCCASIONALLY
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 90 IN THE
LOWLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, YIELDING CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID- TO UPPER-90'S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS 240 PM MONDAY...
REMNANTS OF BARRY, IN THE FORM OF A S/W TROF, WILL CROSS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS A RESULT WITH DOWNPOURS BECOMING LIKELY. LOCALIZED
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE FFG REMAINS A BIT LOW. THE TROF AXIS DEPARTS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGING TO FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
HEAT GOING FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 72-74 DEGREE RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S WILL MAKE FOR HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, LIKELY
NECESSITATING THE NEED FOR HEAD ADVISORIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SKIRT NORTH OF US EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...
STILL SOME ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, AND HAD TO USE
A TEMPO GROUP FOR_TSRA AT PKB GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
JUST TO THE WSW. OTHERWISE,TRYING AGAIN FOR AREA WIDE VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH IT WAS LACKING AT HTS AND CRW LAST NIGHT
GIVEN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC SET UP. THE SET UP CONTINUES TO BE
IMPERFECT, WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AFTER THE ACTIVITY WANES, AND
AN EVER SO SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE 925MB FLOW. THAT SAID, WENT
LIBERAL WITH THE FOG AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
BARRY GET CLOSER TO THE REGION. NO PREVAILING FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE FOG VARIABLES IN QUESTION TONIGHT. MAY
NEED BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN ROGUE POP UP STORMS THROUGH 06Z.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H M
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
SEVERAL OF THE DAYS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...30/MC
NEAR TERM...26/MC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26
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