648
FXUS61 KRLX 312234
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
INCREASED POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BUILDING HEAT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- 2) SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK, AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- 3) DRIER WEATHER WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALBEIT ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIERS
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH ONE
CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AS THE AREA GETS TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO, THE MOISTURE FLUX
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DRIVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING
HIGHER DEW POINTS, THEREFORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE
HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS MOISTURE FLUX TRACK COULD ADVECT IN MORE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND SHOWER POTENTIAL THEN EXPECTED, THEREFORE THE CONFIDENCE ON
POPS IS LOW AS CENTRAL GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING
WITH THIS SOLUTION AND SETUP. FOR TUESDAY, HEAT INDEXES WERE
BORDERLINE OR LESS FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEREFORE NO HEADLINES
WERE ISSUED AS OF NOW. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THAT MAY BE
A DIFFERENT STORY AS INDEXES EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AND
CHARLESTON METRO AREAS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR THURSDAY, SHOWER POTENTIAL RISES AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
DOWN FROM THE SOUTH AND PROMOTES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPC HAS US ALREADY
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR 15% FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR FRIDAY, THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH PROMOTING MORE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS SEVERE POTENTIAL AS SPC HAS US
IN A SLIGHT 15% PROBABILITY AS WELL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND COOLER WEATHER WILL
BREAK THE WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
BECOME SETTLED AFTER SATURDAY AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLOWLY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE SETTLED WEATHER
GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MAY
PROMPT IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT A TERMINAL OR TWO BEFORE DAWN.
ASIDE FROM FOG, PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A
FEW GUSTS INTO THE TEENS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT, TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...20
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