465
FXUS61 KRLX 101736
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
136 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED FOR TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE FLEETING. FIRE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEKEND, WITH PERIODIC LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY NORTH.
3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FIRE WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM ACROSS ALL OF
OUR WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, AND OHIO COUNTIES TODAY. THE
CONTINUED VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PAIRED
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO, NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, AND PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AND
MACHINERY THAT MAY THROW SPARKS. PLEASE ADHERE TO ANY LOCAL BURN
LAWS TODAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
RHS PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S PAIRED WITH WINDS GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH AS THIS FRONT CROSSES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE HARD PRESSED
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AS MOST OF IT WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
DRY WEATHER RESUMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR ADEQUATE RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE SHOW WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STARK WARMING TREND WILL
ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH HEAT BUILDING INTO MID WEEK. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOWCASE VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHICH IS MORE REMINISCENT
TO A SUMMERTIME PATTERN RATHER THAN THE MIDDLE OF SPRING.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCT HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LITTER THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EVENTUALLY THESE CIGS WILL BECOME BKN OR
SCT AND REDUCE TO MID-LEVEL AS THIS FRONT CROSSES. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BEING
POSSIBLE FOR SOME SITES.
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH THIS FRONT, MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
HIGHER CHANCES RESIDE AT CKB AND PKB WHERE VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS
WERE ALLOWED. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINING SITES WILL CARRY VCSH AS
THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR RESULT IN VIRGA
DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. POCKETS OF MIST MAY OCCUR
WHERE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
SW'RLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS FOR MOST SITES WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 AND 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND
NORTHERN WV. WINDS WILL SHIFT N TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY VARY. CEILINGS COULD BE LOWER THAN
FORECASTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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