580
FXUS61 KRLX 171936
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN CANCELED EARLY. THE PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS HAS INCREASED.
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO, BUT UP TO TWO INCHES
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- 2) AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS ON THE MLK HOLIDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR. WHILE SNOW WILL NOT BE AS
MUCH OF A FACTOR THIS TIME, THE COLD AIR WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR,
AND COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN SOME OF THE LOWLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 3) WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
MIDWEEK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SUCCESSIVE
COLD FRONTS PERSISTS, AND THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF
MIDWEEK WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE WEEK. WHILE IT MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS EARLY IN THE WEEK, IT MAY BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE CWA AT
PRESENT. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING FROM THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN ISOLD/SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
THUS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WAS CANCELED EARLY GIVEN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION THROUGH 7 PM. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH GUSTS INCREASED FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE TO
REFLECT 20-35 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
THE CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
EXISTS TONIGHT (GENERALLY LATE EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE
DAWN) AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST
QUICKLY PIVOTS EAST. SYNOPTIC ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH FORCING FOR A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT IN AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
APPROXIMATELY CLARKSBURG/CHARLESTON/LOGAN. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
UPWARD ON THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. IN GENERAL, EXPECT 1-2" ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF
INCH OR SO ACROSS THE NEARBY SURROUNDING LOWLANDS. ADDITIONALLY,
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT, WITH LOWS PROGGED FOR THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20. THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO 30 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES ON MONDAY, MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY,
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ISOLD/SCT
SNOW SHOWERS (20-30%), PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT VIA MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLDER AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, WHILE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS (LOW/MID TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS). THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS
RESULTS IN LIKELY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
WHILE 30-40+ MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE TIME-FRAME
FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS GENERALLY BEING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO TEN BELOW
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WHILE -5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH AS
COLD AS EVEN -20 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY (~ 20
DEGREES), WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS
CONTINUES AMID A NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED PATTERN. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. A
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEEKEND FRONT MAY BRING A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISOLD/SCT RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS (MOUNTAINS) ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE
REGION. MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THEREAFTER, A DRY
START TO THE OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS,
WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IS EXPECTED W/ SNOW, WHILE VFR
LINGERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/WEST. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. VFR GRADUALLY
RETURNS, BUT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (18Z SUNDAY) IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
WSW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WIND
GUSTS OF 15-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS QUICKLY RELAXING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SNOW OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. VFR MAY BE SLOWER TO
RETURN SUNDAY MORNING THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED AT BKW/CKB/CRW/EKN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L H H M H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H L H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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