122
FXUS61 KRLX 141917
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AN EXITING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
A LINGERING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
AS IT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AMID MODEST BUOYANCY GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH ACTIVITY TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WATER
ISSUES GIVEN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AMID STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
RESULTING IN VERY SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KRLX
VAD IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING FLOW OF 5-15 KTS THROUGH ~ 10KFT.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES, ALONG WITH THE NEARBY
FOOTHILLS, WHERE CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WAS HIGHEST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SEVERELY
COMPROMISED FFG IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. THE
FLOOD WATCH RUNS UNTIL 10 PM. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HIGH WATER
COULD ALSO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN ANY SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS OCCURRING IN
LOCATIONS THAT WERE IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY,
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
LOWLANDS, WITH 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT,
WITH JUST ISO SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE KY, SW WV, AND
SW VA LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
OTHERWISE, SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL FACILITATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG, WHICH COULD BE DENSE IN
SPOTS. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISO SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES INTO THE DELMARVA AREA ON
FRIDAY, PLACING THE FORECAST AREA BACK INTO SUFFICIENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING MOISTURE AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING OVER THE 90 DEGREE
MARK.
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY GARNERED ATTENTION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WHO HAVE PAINTED A SLIGHT RISK
FOR BOTH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE ON FRIDAY. CAMS HINT AT
LONG LIVED COMPLEX SYSTEMS ORIGINATING IN THE MIDWEST DASHING
INTO OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. HOW THIS EVOLVE WILL
SET THE TONE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
A QUICK SUCCESSION OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WE'VE FOUND OURSELVES IN THIS WEEK TO A CLOSE. PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE ORCHESTRATING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES VENTURES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
RIDGING ALOFT SCOOTING INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WILL ADVERTISE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S DURING THE DAY AND COOLING
OFF INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA.
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST ISO
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE KY, SW WV, AND SW VA. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL FACILITATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
TODAY AND ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING ISO SHOWERS/STORMS AREA-WIDE,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS,
WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES IN
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD VARY. FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-
030>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...GW
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