962
FXUS61 KRLX 041111
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
711 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, AS IT
DRIFTS EAST. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 711 AM WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK, RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG REMAINS CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE WARMER MAIN STEMS OF WV AND VA.
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT, YIELDING TO DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, SAVE FOR
THE CIRRUS LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MIXING LAYER
SUFFICIENT FOR AN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD, AS WELL AS EARLY
MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG, MAINLY ALONG THE MAIN
STEMS WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE CIRRUS, AND THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, SHOULD KEEP FOG MORE
CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AT LEAST AS HIGH AS ON
TUESDAY, AND LOWS A TAD HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING ON
ACCOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, ABOVE NORMAL
ALL AROUND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WARM, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY.
* COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN, ISOLATED STORMS, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE DAY, THEN PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS START SPREADING INTO THE
CWA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR, THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ONLY EVINCE A MEAGER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALLOW HIGHS TO RETURN TO
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REACHES UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ON SATURDAY.
* WINDY AND MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
* COOL, BUT DRIER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LESSENS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A FRONT;
HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT KICKS IN BEHIND THE FONT WILL PROMOTE WINDY
CONDITIONS AND TRANSPORT COLD CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE AREA. IF
ENOUGH MOISTURE PERSISTS FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT,
A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW THAT ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY
PIVOT EAST. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE DRIER CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE
SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING IN HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WHILE STILL COOLER
THAN NORMAL, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS MID WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 711 AM WEDNESDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WAS LIMITED COMPARED WITH THE PAST SEVERAL
MORNING, DENSE FOG AT EKN WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE 13-14Z, AND
ANY MVFR MIST OR POCKETS OF DENSE FOG COMING OFF THE RIVERS AT
CRW, PKB AND CKB WILL BE GONE BY 13Z.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND, FOR
THE MOST PART, TONIGHT, AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY AND
LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT, ALL BENEATH LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG
ALL BUT THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE EKN AS
LONG AS DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE AND HOLDS THERE.
STRATUS AND A VISIBILITY REDUCTION MAY REACH BKW TOWARD DAWN
THURSDAY ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP AT EKN TONIGHT IF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REACHES THE SURFACE THERE. VICE VERSA,
FOG MAY FORM AT OTHER SITES, MOST LIKELY CRW AND PERHAPS CKB
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/04/23
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG AT EKN THURSDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TRM
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