608
FXUS61 KRLX 240947
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. A DAY 3 (THURSDAY) MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
227 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DRAPED ALONG AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT. STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD YIELD ISOLATED
SEVERE STRENGTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE 20S AND 30S IN THE AFTERNOONS INCREASES RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER.
- 2) A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BODES
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR BOTH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARMING TREND STEMMING FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT BEGINS TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
FESTERING NEAR THE SURFACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BODE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOWERED DEW POINTS AND
RISING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS BOTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN LIMITATIONS TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW AMID HIGH
PRESSURE AND BUDDING VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
RAISE OTHER CONCERNS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT SAILING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
ON THURSDAY SETS UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INCREASING DEW POINTS
BACK INTO THE MID-50S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WILL SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TIMING
OF CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SIMILAR FASHION TO A FEW DAYS
AGO IN TERMS OF THE SEVERITY THREAT OF STORMS HERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST TRENDS MAINTAIN ACTIVITY BUILDING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GRAZING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AROUND THE TIME DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES FOR THE DAY.
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR CLOSE MONITORING AS
NATIONAL CENTERS ALREADY PLACE FOCUS ON EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE WEATHER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THE FRONT WILL SLUGGISHLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
ON FRIDAY, WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES DRAGGING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
COLDER TEMPERATURES VENTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY DRY WEATHER AND PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER, SOME PERSNICKETY STRATOCUMULUS
HANGING ABOUT IN THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND
PROMPTED PERIODS OF MVFR AND BOTH CKB AND EKN. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD FADE THROUGH THE MORNING AND NO LONGER BODE VARYING
CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AMID THE
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/24/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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