343
FXUS61 KRLX 191759
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE, CONTINUING TO
MODIFY DEW POINTS FOR EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK AMID DEEP LAYERS
OF DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. CENTRAL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THIS PROCESS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO OPTED TO BLEND IN MODELS THAT EXUDE
DEW POINTS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S/30S IN THE AFTERNOONS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE RULING THE ROOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND COOL OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND BEYOND INTO THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND DIURNAL TRENDS REMAINING
CONSISTENT, WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTTIME
LOWS.
THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO YIELD A
SLIGHT MODERATION TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, MAKING FROST
FORMATION MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN COMPARISON TO PAST
MORNINGS. DID NOT SEE STRONG ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR A FROST
ADVISORY TONIGHT, BUT SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS
COULD SEE PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY,
SLIGHTLY BREEZY LOW LEVEL WINDS PARKED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL STIFLE SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS NEEDED RIVER VALLEY FOG
TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS WEEK DEPICT A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
RETAINING RESIDENCY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY, ATTRIBUTING TO DEW
POINTS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S. WILL HAVE TO REMAIN
VIGILANT TO MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS WEEK AS LEAF LITTER GROWS
MORE ABUNDANT, BUT FOR NOW DO NOT FORESEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD PLEASANT DAYTIME FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER SMALL SIGNAL FOR RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS PRESENT HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT LESS IN
EXTENT AND INTENSITY AS PREVIOUS MORNINGS. MAIN OBSTACLES FOR
FOG PRODUCTION TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS PARKED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT WILL STIFLE WIDESPREAD FOG FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. MAINTAINED VICINITY FOG AT OUR SHELTERED TERMINALS
AND LATE SUNRISE FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE QUICKLY ERODING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW WILL PROSPER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY
VARY THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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