312
FXUS61 KRLX 231156
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MILD WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN AT TIMES CHRISTMAS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT WAVERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 655 AM TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 7AM.
AS OF 555 AM TUESDAY...
WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, THE RIDGES WERE CONTINUING TO WARM WHILE FREEZING
LEVELS ALONG THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES WERE SLOWLY
RISING. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DECREASING AREA BELOW FREEZING,
AND EVEN THERE BY A DEGREE F OR LESS. PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING WITH A STUBBORNLY SLOW
RISE ALONG THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT, OF NOTE, WERE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS. THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA,
WITH MORE SUCCESS AT REACHING THE GROUND THAN THE FIRST ROUND
EARLIER.
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR FREEZING RAIN REMAIN IN EFFECT.
FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS ARE STILL GENERALLY AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST IN THE ADVISORY AREA,
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET MAY SEE ICE ACCRETIONS
BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.10 INCH.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND ACCOMPANIED THE ARRIVAL OF THE
RAIN AT EKN, AND THE TEMPERATURE SOARED WELL ABOVE FREEZING
THERE, THE RAIN REVERSING A BRIEF DEW POINT DROP THERE WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WIND.
A WARM FRONT BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SOME PROGRESS INTO THE AREA TODAY, BEFORE
BEING INTERCEPTED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, DEPENDING
UPON THE PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE RAIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SPOTTY AND CONFINED TO AREAS
IN AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IN PLAY ONCE THE
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THIS MORNING AREA GONE, IT MAY
END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLY IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A LOW
OVERCAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS IT CROSSES MOST OF THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT TODAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE AREA, AND
THEN LOWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT,
STRADDLING NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
A WAVY FRONT DRAPED LIKE GARLAND CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA
WITH RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
AFTER CROSSING MUCH THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, IT RETURNS
AS A WARM FRONT ON CHRISTMAS EVE, ONLY TO BE INTERCEPTED BY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, RESULTING IN ITS RETURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A COLD FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BENEATH THE FAST NORTHWEST BUT
HIGH- HEIGHT MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP, AND RAIN, NOT SNOW, WILL GREET
SANTA AS HE MAKES HIS ROUNDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING. THIS TIME, WHILE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, IT IS LIKELY TO BE SCOURED OUT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT, PARTICULARLY WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME INSOLATION
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN INSUFFICIENT COOLING CHRISTMAS EVENING AND
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST, BUT
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE FRONT AGAIN RETURNS NORTHEAST,
AS A WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL OSCILLATE MORE WITH THE WAVERING FRONT THEN
DIURNALLY, BUT AGAIN TREND HIGHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, AND THEN NOT AS LOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT, COMPARED WITH TONIGHT. THIS SPELLS AN
UNSEASONABLY MILD CHRISTMAS DAY, AND NO FROZEN OR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REINDEER SLEIGH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
THE DRAPED, WAVY GARLAND WILL BE TAKEN DOWN THIS WEEKEND, AS A
STOUT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLOW IT
AWAY.
IN THE MEANTIME, THE WAVY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF, OR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF, THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER=LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST, OR ZONAL. THE
WARM FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WET FRIDAY, BEFORE THE RAIN
DIMINISHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN AREAS IN AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY, AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS MINIMAL ONCE THE WARM
ADVECTION IS GONE.
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TIMING
STARTS TO DIVERGE, WITH RAIN LIKELY AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND THEN AT LEAST UPSLOPE SNOW BEHIND IT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A DISTANT EARLY PEAK SHOWS SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A SECOND STOUT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS 2025 GIVES
WAY TO 2026.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE ABRUPTLY DROPPING
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 555 AM TUESDAY...
RAIN AT TIMES ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MAY STILL LOWER
VISIBILITY TO MVFR IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, EVEN DOWN TO IFR AT EKN EARLY ON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WERE SLOWLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING, EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ANY
LINGERING FREEZING RAIN THERE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE TAF PERIOD, 12Z WEDNESDAY, EVEN AS RAIN ENDS THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT BKW AND PERHAPS CKB AND EKN WHILE
GETTING CLOSE, LOW MVFR, AT THE OTHER SITES, LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY BREAKING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT EKN AND
CKB BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT AGL, BEFORE MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES TO THE
SURFACE THERE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL
GUST AT TIMES TO 20 TO 25 KTS, LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST
FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING,
GUSTY WINDS TODAY, AND LOWEST CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/20
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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