321
FXUS61 KRLX 200952
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
550 AM...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
340 AM UPDATE...
WILDFIRE SMOKE BRINGS HAZE TODAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL THREE HAZARDS OCCURRING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY AND HAZY TODAY AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCURRING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
3) QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONT LOITERING NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER COULD
PROMPT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA OR FAR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES,
FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, IN A MOISTURE-RICH MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, KEY MESSAGE
NUMBER 2. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SMOKE FROM DISTANT CANADIAN WILDFIRES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY, AS A RESIDUAL LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
THIS MORNING BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, CUTTING
OFF THE CANADIAN SOURCES.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID SUMMER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST/RIDGE IN THE WEST PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION VIA AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
FORECAST AND COUNTY WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
THEN ON THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TRICK OF THE TALE TO THIS FORECAST IS THE WELL DEFINED
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY,
ENCOURAGING INSTABILITY AMID THE MIDDAY HEATING IN THE MOISTURE
RICH, HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE ASSOCIATED 0-6 BAND 0-8 KM
SHEAR OF 40 TO 60 KTS WILL ENCOURAGE AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THAT CROSSES TUESDAY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL CARRY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, AS WELL AS HAIL AND A TORNADO
THREAT WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS OR SUPERCELLS.
THE ROUND OF CONVECTION TUESDAY MIDDAY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A COOL POOL SUPPRESSING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIVEN BY A MORE
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING, THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING WILL
DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER, BUT THE HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ENCOURAGE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION
INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS, GIVING RISE TO A SECOND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TUESDAY EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MID TO LATE JULY, 40
TO 50 KTS AT H85 AND 30 TO 40 KTS AT H925, CONTRIBUTE TO 0-3 KM
SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
HELP OF LOW LCLS, THIS ELEVATES THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER ABOVE, EVEN WELL ABOVE, 2 TUESDAY EVENING, THUS
ELEVATING THE TORNADO THREAT.
THE STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN, VEERING IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS AND AT TIMES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, GIVES RISE TO
CURVED HODOGRAPHS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD, WITH ALL THREE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, DAMAGING WIND,
TORNADO AND HAIL, AT PLAY TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE DURING BOTH
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTWARD, TO NOW INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF
THE FORECAST AND COUNTY WARNING AREA, WITH ALL THREE SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS AT PLAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION, THE RICH MOISTURE, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S F, H85 THETA E VALUES UP TO AROUND 350 K AND PW VALUES
UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES, CONTRIBUTES TO SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
AS WILL AS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HIGH
COVERAGE CONVECTION, FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN ISSUE
WHEREVER HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOST PERSISTENT OR REPETITIVE.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WITH FOG AND STRATUS, AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON TUESDAY
PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. ALSO,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
WHILE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS AMID A TROUGH IN THE
EAST/RIDGE IN THE WEST PATTERN, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BRINGS QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE CONCLUSION OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN EMBEDDED MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE
THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO BUCKLE BACK TOWARD THE AREA
AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH IN OR JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THIS MAY
ENCOURAGE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THERE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR
MID SUMMER, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60, AND HIGHS IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80, ALONG WITH COMFORTABLY LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER VALUES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE EXTRA CONDENSATION NUCLEI PROVIDED BY THE SMOKE FROM DISTANT
CANADIAN FIRES APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE OVERNIGHT FOG
FORMATION AND EVEN DAYTIME SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
SMOKE AND HAZE.
THE FOG MAY LIFT INTO IFR STRATUS AND THEN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS,
BEFORE YIELDING TO VFR ALBEIT HAZY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
THAT WILL THAN PERSIST THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD, 12Z
TUESDAY, EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE MVFR STRATOCU AND/OR
MST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THEN TREND TOWARD LIGHT SOUTH ALL SITES TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A LAYER OF EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW BENEATH, WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPACTS DUE TO HAZE AND SMOKE COULD BE
WORSE THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 07/20/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M L M L L M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H L M M L L M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L L H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M L L M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR LIKELY IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS,
HAIL, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
IFR OR WORSE FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
IFR TO VLIFR VALLEY FOG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page