199
FXUS61 KRLX 291523
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1123 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS INTO ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND TO REMOVE THUNDER PER LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TODAY.
2) AFTER A NEAR IDEAL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE JULY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN A DRIER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS
OVER TIME. HOWEVER, A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS CARVED OUT ALOFT,
CENTERED OVER NEW YORK AND PROXIMITY TO THIS LOW, LEFT OVER
INSTABILITY AND SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH QUITE A BIT OF DIURNAL CU AND MAYBE
A SPRINKLE OR TWO TO THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, AS A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY, MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON
WHETHER THE LOW WILL CUT OFF TO OUR WEST OR REMAIN TRANSIENT.
NBM MAINTAINS CHANCE POPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO LOCATIONS
FROM PKB TO CRW EASTWARD. WEST OF THERE, A CUMULUS FIELD WILL
LIKELY BUILD DURING THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS, AND MAYBE EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM, ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE SETTLING DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNDOWN, WHICH WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER RISING FROM
MVFR TO VFR IS LOW CONFIDENCE. FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE TAFS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ABE/30
AVIATION...ABE
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