655
FXUS61 KRLX 142323
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
REDUNDANT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN CONTINUES UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR SOME LATE
TUESDAY. ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE START CONTINUES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...
CONTINUED DRY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL. AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. FOR MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE NORTH. BULK OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO
STAY TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY, BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE HOT, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, 60S TO 70S
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...
CHANCES FOR RAIN BECOME POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG
THE COAST SPREADS WESTWARD. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CHANCES ARE LOW,
AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT UNDER THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE
LOW IS KICKED OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS THEN START TO DIFFER THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE HANDLING OF A LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. FOR NOW,
THE BLEND OF MODELS IS PAINTING THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...
OTHER THAN PATCHY IFR/LIFR/VLIFR VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AT
MAINLY JUST EKN, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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