072
FXUS61 KRLX 100857
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
457 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TYPICAL
VALLEY COLD SPOTS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE DEEPER AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, PRIMARILY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN
CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS AMID BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
2) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY AND SUNDAY.
3) A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND, WITH
PERIODIC LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
4) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
WITH AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN A QUIET EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AMID CLEAR SKIES. INCREASED BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW HAS RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED TO A DEGREE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH LOW TO MID 30S ALREADY IN
SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS MORNING IN
THE TYPICAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, PRIMARILY
IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
INCREASED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AMID
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
DIURNAL MIXING TO H800 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WILL RESULT IN VERY
DRY RH VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
DRYING OF FINE FUELS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. DO ANTICIPATE SOME FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES BEING EVENTUALLY NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL
COLLABORATING WITH STATE FORESTRY CONTACTS BEFORE ISSUING ANY
PRODUCTS.
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT AND
MUCH LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL DECREASE THE OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A RETURN OF BREEZY
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ANY LOCAL/STATE BURN
LAWS THAT ARE IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT TODAY, THEN CROSS THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER (FAR NORTH)
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS COULD RESULT
IN VIRGA AT ONSET AS SHOWERS FIRST MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA (40-60%), WITH LOWER END CHANCES FURTHER
SOUTH. RAIN TOTALS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH, BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN SPOTS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH PERIODIC LOW-END
CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH, AS WEAK WAVES
CROSS NORTH OF THE REGION ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH
SATURDAY BEING THE CLOSEST DAY TO THAT OF NORMAL VALUES. AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR HIGHS ON MOST DAYS, WITH MONDAY
BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES. SOME RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS REMAINS QUITE LOW
AT THIS POINT.
CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH GUSTS OF
15-25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY COULD OCCUR TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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