260
FXUS61 KRLX 260956
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
556 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
554 AM UPDATE...
~12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
353 AM UPDATE...
MODELS ARE MORE IN RANGE AND AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. MORE DETAILS AND SPECIFICS
BELOW.
135 AM UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE FOR ~06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE, ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FAST MOVING, MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING TO THE AREA. MODELS, SPECIFICALLY
THE LATEST NAM3K, HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON A MORNING COMPLEX OF
STORMS ACROSS THE COALFIELDS, BUT THIS SOLUTION MAY STILL BE
PROBABLE DEPENDING ON A WEAKENING MCS THAT MODELS SHOW
TRAVERSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEST TO EAST VERY EARLY MONDAY.
SUFFICIENT AND ROBUST CAPE (2,000-4,000 J/KG) IS MODELED TO
BUILD MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS EARLY MONDAY
AND IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS OHIO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM ON MONDAY
FOLLOWING A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOTION, DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS,
BUT THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS OHIO OR WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA IS PRESENT WITH THE AMPLE CAPE, 40-60 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, 250MB JET STREAK, AND 100-300 M^2/S^-2 OF
HELICITY. THE WINDOW FOR GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM ON MONDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT ULTIMATELY A TRANSITION TO FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CREATES PWATS BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.50". DESPITE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TYPOLOGY OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THE
LISTED FACTORS WILL LEAD TO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS BETWEEN 0.50" AND 1.50" OF RAINFALL
FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
AMOUNTS AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES COULD BE PICKED UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS,
THIS INCLUDES SOME AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED DEVASTATING
FLOODING NOT EVEN A WEEK AGO.
THIS SET UP DOES NOT SEEM TO WARRANT THE SAME ALARM BELLS FOR
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AS THE PREVIOUS EVENT, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LOOKING TO BE OF CONCERN AND WILL REQUIRE FULL ATTENTION THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STIFF AND UNWAVERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. OUR WEATHER WILL
BE MUCH DRIER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW ROUNDS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
THAT WILL CROSS EACH DAY PROVIDING MORE CONFIDENCE IN DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY
DUE TO LACK OF STRONG ENOUGH SUPPORT ALOFT WITH THESE WEAK WAVES
OF VORTICITY.
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER VERY STRONG SYSTEM
LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT THE FORECAST AREA, BUT DETAILS COULD CHANGE
DRASTICALLY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH LOW STRATUS BEING
REPORTED AT KEKN WITH LIFR CIGS AND A QUARTER MILE VIS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED BY ~13Z, BUT RETURN TO VFR WILL
BE SLOW. ELSEWHERE, BKN TO OVC CIGS BETWEEN 2,000 AND 6,000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED. THIS MIX OF MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CIGS WILL
HOLD UNTIL ~12-13Z.
SCT TO BKN CIGS BETWEEN 3,000 AND 10,000 FEET AGL WILL BE
COMMON TODAY AFTER RESTRICTIONS CLEAR OUT. ISO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
COALFIELDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEY WILL THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE WNW LATER THIS MORNING, BUT
WILL BE LIGHT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE HIGHER RIDGES ARE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THIS MORNING, THEN HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
MONDAY MORNING, AND ALSO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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