234
FXUS61 KRLX 101923
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS THIS WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRING ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOODING TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2) BRIEFLY DRIER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN TURNING ACTIVE
AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND THEN
SLIDES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US MID TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE ENTRENCHED WITHIN A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. AMIDST THIS PATTERN, A
SERIES OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE PROJECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA, BRINGING ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
WHILE BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE UNCERTAIN,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL BRING IMPACTFUL
WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FLOODING:
PLENTY OF MOISTURE, EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE, WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS WEEK. THESE DOWNPOURS COULD EASILY
PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. TRAINING
STORMS WOULD PRODUCE EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLOOD RISK MAY BE FURTHER HEIGHTENED AS SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO ROLL THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL ACCRUE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN
FOR FLOODING TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA. SHOULD "WORST CASE" MODEL
SCENARIOS MATERIALIZE, THEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT, RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MAKES ITS WAY INTO LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS:
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
USHER ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEK. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT COULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT, OR
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US,
PROMPTING QUIETER WEATHER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
THIS REPRIEVE IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE RIDGE IS
PROJECTED TO BREAK DOWN OR SHIFT WEST AGAIN EARLY IN THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMPT MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OVERNIGHT
OR TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DURATION OF STORMS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FAVOR
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR IFR IN
HEAVY RAIN. MORNING VALLEY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY RETURN AFTER
WETTING RAINS, ESPECIALLY AT EKN AND OTHER SHELTERED SITES.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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