515
FXUS61 KRLX 102337
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND IN PLAY. A STRONG SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 735 PM MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO FRESHENED UP DEW POINTS FOR THIS
EVENING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL RELISHING IN DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. RH VALUES STILL EQUATE TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS OF 110 PM MONDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND THE ABSENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW, WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
ON TUESDAY, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A LITTLE.
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS TO BRING DOWN LOWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
COMMON COLD SPOTS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S, MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE WEST, AND AT OR BELOW
FREEZING EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND FEW COLD SPOTS. WENT WITH THE 10
PERCENTILE FOR MINT FOR TONIGHT LOWERING A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
COMMON COLD SPOTS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO LOWER DUE TO AFTERNOON
MIXING, AND CONSEQUENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ON TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH MAY
ENHANCE FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER,
FUEL STICK MOISTURE REMAINS SATURATED, WITH MITIGATES FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR USE OF MACHINERY NEAR VEGETATION.
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE, A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED TO ASSESS THE FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1215 PM MONDAY...
WARM AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. ONCE AGAIN, AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS WILL BE LOW,
GENERALLY 30-40%. THIS, COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 10-15
KTS, COULD BRING A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER. MORE
OF THE SAME TYPE OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH POPS REMAINING UNDER 20%.
OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM MONDAY...
ONCE AGAIN, FRIDAY'S WEATHER REMAINS WARM AND QUIET. 500-MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING US BREEZIER
WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH CAN FURTHER ENHANCE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT
AROUND 30 PERCENT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING
20-30 KTS.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH LOWLANDS ONCE
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHICH COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS TYPICALLY SUFFICIENT WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE CASE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH MODELS PROJECTING 50+KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR. MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT 500-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY 18Z
SATURDAY, BUT CAPE QUICKLY DROPS OFF BY 00Z. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THIS WITH TIME. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
CLIPPED IN A 15% SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR DAY 6 (SATURDAY), WHICH
WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SLIGHT RISK. MODELS ALSO PROJECT 1.00-1.50" OF
PWAT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BE CAPABLE OF
BRINGING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, AND THE RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT STILL REMAINING A LITTLE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 735 PM MONDAY...
CAVU FLIGHT CONDITIONS RULE THE ROOST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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