660
FXUS61 KRLX 181051
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
551 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE, AS THE
ZEITGEIST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- 2) IT WILL REMAIN SPRINGLIKE THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.
- 3) A PATTERN SHIFT TO COLDER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LAKE-EFFECT MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS, AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WORK WEEK, STARTING TODAY. WHILE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY NORTH, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH TODAY, A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THEIR MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN FLANK, OUR NORTHEAST
KY AND SOUTHEAST OH COUNTIES, IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK, SWODY2. ALL THREE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, DAMAGING
WIND, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES, ARE INDICATED AT 5, 5 AND 2
PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY, TO GO ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL MARGINAL
RISK, WHICH IS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER
THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WITH 15, 15 AND 5
PERCENT RISKS FOR MOST OF IT, WHERE EARLIER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CULPRIT IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH CROSSED
THE WEST COAST OVERNIGHT. IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
CROSSES THE WESTERN STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND THEN MAY CLOSE
OFF AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THE MIDWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES AS IT TAKES A SIMILAR AND SLIGHT FARTHER SOUTH TRACK
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY GETTING BELOW 990 MB BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY, STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING, BEFORE CROSSING THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, ANY
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN SURFACE DEW
POINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S WILL HAVE HIGH SHEAR TO WORK
WITH, TO GO WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET, MODEST MID-LEVEL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION VEERING WITH HEIGHT.
ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTS IS GENERALLY
MAXIMIZED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT
ITSELF COULD SUPPORT ALL THREE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS MORE
INDEPENDENTLY OF THE TIME OF DAY. IT IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE UPSCALE
GROWTH UPSTREAM MAKES INROADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EVENING WITH A WIND THREAT, BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WHIZZES
ACROSS THE AREA FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING, ALSO UNFAVORABLE
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIURNALLY, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WITH IT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE OVERALL QPF WITH THE SYSTEM RANGES FROM ABOUT ONE HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH, NOT A SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. HOWEVER,
LOCALLY HIGHER TERRAIN-ENHANCE AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL SNOW AND ICE MELT, COULD GIVE RISE TO
LOCALIZED MINOR ISSUES.
DRIER AIR WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT PROMOTES
DRIER WEATHER LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST COASTS,
COUPLED WITH A RETURN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WILL MAINTAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH LOWLANDS HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING, IN THE 40S AND EVEN 50S,
OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING TODAY HAS A BARELY DISCERNIBLE WIND
SHIFT, AND RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY MORNING, SIGNIFICANT COOLING
AWAITS A SECONDARY, MAINLY DRY FRONT LATER IN THE DAY, AND SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS OF 70 OR BETTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW AND ICE IN OUR ENVIRONMENT BY
THE TIME THIS WEEK IS OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIGHT BEHIND IT,
WHICH FINALLY ERADICATES THE GULF RIDGE GIVING RISE TO THE
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER THIS WEEK, AS IT CLOSES OFF INTO A MODESTLY
DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROADER NORTHEAST U.S BY
SUNDAY.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW, SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO IT WILL EITHER TRACK UP THE
EAST COAST, OR FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM UNFOLDS, BUT AS PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW IN RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR SUNDAY, THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A
WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM A CLOSER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
VERSUS JUST SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE
OFFSHORE SOLUTION OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH COASTAL IMPACTS COULD
STILL BE SIGNIFICANT, AS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST EXTENDED
FORECAST DISCUSSION, PMDEPD. HOWEVER, FOR THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND ESPECIALLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, THE
ENSEMBLE-INFUSED NBM POPS THIS WEEKEND MAY BE TOO HIGH UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW, COLD
AIR AND UPSLOPE FLOW START BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY, AND THEN THE DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AMID LONG-WAVE TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, AND THE NADIR OF THE COLD WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S LOWLANDS AND 20S MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 10S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE
EAST COAST LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO, IF NOT EVEN ABOVE,
NORMAL AMID MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WHISKING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY MAY BRING MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN SHOWERS FOR UP TO A COUPLE OF HOURS MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, WHEN CEILINGS ALSO LOWER TO MVFR. HOWEVER, ONCE
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR, THEY WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE
BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SCATTER OUT FOR A
TIME TONIGHT. MVFR MIST MAY SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
CEILINGS REFORM AND LOWER TO LOW MVFR, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY LOWER TO IFR AT BKW
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AS THE
WEAK FRONT DOES NOT EVEN BRING A DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT. SURFACE
FLOW MAY GO CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MODERATE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT ALOFT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON,
AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALLOWED FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING UNTIL SOME OF
THE HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM
OF GUSTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND MINIMUM HEIGHT OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, AS MAY
TIMING AND DEGREE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY. MIST/FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES, AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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