224
FXUS61 KRLX 190630
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BREAK EXTENDS INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL CHANCES OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FLEETS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION AND CREATE
SUBSIDENCE TO CAP US THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND RAISE
CHANCES FOR SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STEERING STORMS THAT EVOLVE MAY MOVE SLOWLY AND CAUSE ISSUES OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN DRY FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS AND THE
ONES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN DRY HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL, THEREFORE MAINLY ONLY FLOOD PRONE AND LOW
LYING AREAS WOULD BE AT THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
WPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER AND WEST OF THERE. THE WESTERN HALF OF WEST VIRIGNIA
IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL. PWATS
ARE UP NEAR 2 INCHES AND DCAPE IS SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE DOWN
BURSTING WHICH WOULD CAUSE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY SPC ACROSS
MAINLY THE TRI-STATE AREA WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. WITH THE LACK OF SHEAR STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT LAST TOO
LONG AND STRONG TO SEVERE ONES WILL LIKELY BE VERY ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL BE IN A MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WPC HAS US UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS WELL WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.
MORE ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES
ACROSS THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK AND PROMOTES MORE CHANCES OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY
AS THE FEATURE BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AND MEANDERS ABOUT THE
AREA SLOWLY TRAVELING TO THE SOUTH.
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INFLUENCES OUR AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY UNDER A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN BELOW SEASONABLE WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER AROUND AND THE LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CAUSE ANY
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING.
BY END OF THE WORK WEEK, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
ACCORDING TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO WHERE THE REGION WILL BE
BLOCKED OFF FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FAIRLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR HTS
WHO HAS SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13/14Z AND THEN VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN MORE VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPACTS AND EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 09/19/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H L M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M L H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DENSE FOG SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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