090  
FXUS61 KRLX 240715  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
315 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS  
MORNING. MORE SEASONABLE AIR AND DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...  
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS  
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS  
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.  
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND  
WESTERN FOOTHILLS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF, BUT THERE  
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP FOG AND LOW CLOUD  
FORMATION LIMITED ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL  
DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHEST  
ELEVATIONS) AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO KEEP THE AREA  
DRY TODAY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH  
THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH  
THE MORNING WITH MIXING. FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWEST TODAY ALLOWING  
FOR LESS HOT AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE  
SWELTERING DAYS WE HAVE HAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWLANDS  
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 78 AND 86 DEGREES; THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURE RANGES  
ARE AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND FLOW  
SHIFTS NORTHEASTERLY, GRADUALLY SLACKING OFF AS THE REGION  
DECOUPLES. UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FORECASTED FOR THE LOWLANDS;  
MOSTLY 50S EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. PATCHY TO DENSE RIVER  
VALLEY FOG FORMATION LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 225 AM MONDAY...  
 
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY,  
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR.  
 
A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING AT  
LEAST 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
MODELS DO HAVE DIFFERENCES ON PREFRONTAL ENERGY AND  
PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH REMAINING  
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN  
AGAIN FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 225 AM MONDAY...  
 
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY,  
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR. A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN  
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND AN APPROACHING FROM WILL INCREASE THE  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY.  
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH  
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 108 AM MONDAY...  
 
A FEW SHOWERS, SOME WITH LIGHTNING, REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS  
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALLOWED  
TEMPO FOR SHRA OR VCSH/VCTS TO SITES WHERE APPROPRIATE. MOST OF  
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE MORNING.  
 
MVFR STRATOCU AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE  
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS  
TAPER OFF AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN BEHIND FROPA. SOME  
MODELS AND CURRENT OBS SUGGEST MVFR OR IFR STRATOCU WILL FORM  
ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING AS WINDS SLACK OFF, BUT NW FLOW PICKING  
UP LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPEDED THIS FROM OCCURRING. VFR  
WILL TAKE BACK OVER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS AS CLOUDS CLEAR.  
 
WINDS WILL BE WNW AND LIGHT WITH FROPA, BECOMING VARIABLE AND  
LIGHT TO CALM BEHIND IT. LIGHT WINDS PICK UP WITH A NW'RLY  
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK, THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NE THIS EVENING  
INTO TONIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING  
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IFR/MVFR STRATOCU  
OR FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ADVERTISED THIS  
MORNING.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE MON 06/24/24  
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18  
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L H H M H H M H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...  
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF  
IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC  
NEAR TERM...LTC  
SHORT TERM...RPY  
LONG TERM...RPY  
AVIATION...LTC  
 
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