831  
FXUS61 KRLX 250147  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
947 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY THE  
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 946 PM FRIDAY...  
 
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL ENCOURAGE DRY WEATHER  
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY STRETCH INTO  
THE 40S AND 50S, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THAT  
PLATEAU AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE  
AGAIN TUMBLE DOWN TO SUB-FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT AND RESULT IN  
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, BUT AS OF THIS MORNING THE GROWING  
SEASON HAS NOW CONCLUDED FOR THE CHARLESTON, WV FORECAST AREA.  
 
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AROUND THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE  
AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARM UP IN  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE LOWLAND SPOTS RISING INTO THE  
LOW 60S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...  
 
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AS A  
DISTURBANCE ASCENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY TREKS  
ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL RETAIN A  
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE SHIFTING GEARS TOWARDS A MORE  
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL FIRST ARRIVE INTO OUR COALFIELDS  
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERMEATE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.  
THIS WILL SET FORTH THE RETURN OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA,  
BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A  
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STEADY STREAM OF  
LIGHT RAIN EVEN BEYOND THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD BE  
BENEFICIAL BY PUTTING A SMALL DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT WHILE  
ALSO MITIGATING CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITHIN THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER STRETCHES INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AMID  
A SLEW OF PASSING DISTURBANCES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN  
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, A NEW SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN  
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AIMS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK,  
HOWEVER CONSENSUS REMAINS HAZY ON DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IN THE  
FORECAST. CENTRAL GUIDANCE BROADBRUSHED THE AREA WITH A 50/50  
CHANCE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD IN REGARDS TO POPS, AND SEE NO  
REASON TO CHANGE THAT WITH THIS PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL  
BECOME MUCH COOLER IN THE MIDST OF THE ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND  
OVERCAST SKIES, WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING  
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A  
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION TO TRANSPIRE AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE VALID  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 728 PM FRIDAY...  
 
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A CLEAN ZONAL FLOW AT  
H500, PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY  
AND DERIVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION DUE  
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TWO FEATURES. THIS DRY AIR AND EXPECTED  
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPRESS DENSE FOG  
FORMATION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AS NBM SUGGESTS AT PKB, CKB AND  
EKN. FROST OF FREEZE IS MORE FAVOR, NEGATING DENSE FOG  
DEVELOPMENT. ALLOWED ONE HOUR OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EKN AND PKB  
FROM 12-13Z EXPECTING FOR A "MORNING SURPRISE" EFFECT UNDER  
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG.  
 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY MORNING MAY OR  
MAY NOT AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SAT 10/25/25  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS  
MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...05  
NEAR TERM...05/ARJ  
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM...05  
AVIATION...ARJ  
 
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