502
FXUS61 KRLX 282322
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. UPDATED TEMPS/DEW POINTS/RHS
THIS EVENING TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
238 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BUILDING HEAT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AMID MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW/MID 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER BEGINS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING TODAY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE BROAD
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY ENDING UP
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A LENGTHY PERIOD
OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AMID A STEADY WARMING
TREND.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING VIA TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT, WITH ONE OR TWO ONGOING AT
PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A RETURN TO A SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD IN TERMS OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WORK WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN/SHIFT BY
SOME GUIDANCE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL
TRANSITION TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY AS A LATE SUMMER HEAT
WAVE COMMENCES, THEN REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK, WITH EVEN MID 90S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT,
DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER, MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS QUIET DAYTIME CONDITIONS OVER THE
AIRSPACE THIS EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING. IN BETWEEN, SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH PROMOTE
RIVER VALLEY FOG ANYTIME AFTER 03Z FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR TAF
SITES. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, THEN
BRANCH BACK OUT TO VFR AREAWIDE FOR THE DAY SATURDAY. SURFACE
FLOW WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT; HIGH AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H L M M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...05
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