031
FXUS61 KRLX 120904
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
504 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
HIGHLIGHT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON MONDAY HAS ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED. AVIATION
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST THIS
MORNING.
2.) UNSEASONABLY HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO 25-35 PERCENT, AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
3.) SUMMER-LIKE HEAT PERSISTS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY CALM WINDS COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST HAVE ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING THUS FAR OVERNIGHT GIVEN A RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER,
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS,
WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF
THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP,
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DOWN FROM CENTRAL
GUIDANCE. THE COLDEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHERE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS, WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY IN POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. MID TO
UPPER 30S REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WV
LOWLANDS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN VERY ISOLATED/PATCHY FROST
ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLDEST LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE GENERALLY
LOCALIZED NATURE OF FROST THIS MORNING, NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WARM BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT,
CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE,
STEADILY SHIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.
THIS RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY, TRANSLATING TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA WITHOUT PRODUCING ANY
PRECIPITATION, LEADING TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
ANTICIPATED BREEZY WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE, WITH
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. DO ANTICIPATE SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENTS BEING
NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL COLLABORATING WITH STATE FORESTRY
CONTACTS BEFORE ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
ANY LOCAL/STATE BURN LAWS THAT ARE IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT TODAY WILL RESULT
IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MORE/LESS REMAINS POSITIONED OVER OR JUST EAST
OF THE REGION RESULTING IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID
TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR HIGHS ON MOST
DAYS, WITH MONDAY BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES. SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). RELIEF FROM THIS VERY EARLY SEASON HEAT
LOOKS TO FINALLY COME LATE SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES.
PERIODIC CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-50%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ON MOST DAYS
(STARTING MONDAY), ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA, AS WEAK UPPER WAVES CROSS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION
ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, COURTESY OF A GULF
MOISTURE FEED, SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT REDUCED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS COMPARED TO THAT OF LATE, EVEN WITH A WIDEPSREAD
WETTING RAIN NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
WILL GENERALLY BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WITH ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS
WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS VIA DYNAMIC LIFTING WITH A ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL JET. FINALLY, BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 12Z
MONDAY) AMID DRY WEATHER. MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY COULD RESULT
IN A FEW HIGH BASED (050-070) CU FIELD DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE, FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES TODAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AMID
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS.
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING. FLOW THEN VEERS TO SOUTHWEST TODAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT, WITH 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD,
WITH LLWS CODED INTO MOST TAFS LATER TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY.
CLIMATE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS CHALLENGED ON TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
TUE, 4/14 | WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 86 / 88 (2018) | 88 / 89 (1994) | 87 / 89 (2002) | 86 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 87 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 86 / 89 (2024) | 87 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 82 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 82 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 85 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 84 / 88 (2002) | 85 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 81 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) | 80 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 81 / 85 (2018) | 83 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | 80 / 87 (1976) |
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RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW
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