270
FXUS61 KRLX 220950
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION. INCREASED POPS TO NUMEROUS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN,
MAINLY ALONG AND E OF US-119.
AS OF 208 AM TUESDAY...
HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CONTINUED EFFICIENT, NEARLY
STATIONARY RAINFALL ATOP COMPROMISED SOILS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE RAIN WANES,
FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES TODAY.
2.) RENEWED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING RISKS FROM SLOW-MOVING
HEAVY RAIN IMPACT COMPROMISED SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
3.) A WELCOMED STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S BEGINS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING, LARGELY DRIVEN BY A SERIES OF WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS
FORCING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE HEADING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS IN WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE
POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LARGELY STRUGGLING TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW 99TH
PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE SEPTEMBER TODAY, DIPPING TO 1.4
TO 1.6 INCHES, ASCENT DRIVEN MAINLY BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STILL YIELD HIGHLY
EFFICIENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY MANIFEST NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE NOT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN, SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER A
PATCHWORK OF SOILS COMPROMISED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TO
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH GOES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD-CORE LOW
ALOFT SETTLES OVERHEAD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO 1.2
TO 1.5 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN TEMPER MAXIMUM RAINFALL RATES.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HIGHLY COMPROMISED SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AN ADDITIONAL
EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY DUE TO LESSENED
MOISTURE LOADING OF UPDRAFTS AND GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY;
HOWEVER, WET SOILS MAY ALLOW EVEN SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS TO UPROOT TREES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD CONTINUES TO WORK
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MUCH DRIER AIR SOURCED FROM
EASTERN CANADA WILL PROGRESSIVELY BE DRAGGED SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELCOME PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION
AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL THROUGH THE 1 INCH MARK.
EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THIS DRY AND
PLEASANT PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MIRED IN 500-1200 FT STRATUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SOME OF THE RIDGETOP TERMINALS
THIS MORNING ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK WITH FOG BEING REPORTED, THIS
SHOULD LIFT BY 13-14Z. BKW WILL BE THE MAIN EXCEPTION FROM THE
WIDESPREAD IFR WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING CEILINGS
GENERALLY 1500-2500 FT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
TERMINAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH. ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANY STORMS WILL
BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND IF THEY GET OVER A TERMINAL COULD SEE
SOME EXTENDED HOLDS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5KTS OR LESS,
INITIALLY NORTHERLY BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY, EXCEPT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT BKW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page