298
FXUS61 KRLX 140935
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REASONING HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A DIMINISHED
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES NOW FAVORING A COLD RAIN OR
WET SNOW MIX AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION SUNDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS (0.50-1.00 INCH)
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
2.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS LIKELY EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
3.) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID-TO-LATE WEEK WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM
APPROACHING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHARP GRADIENT IN QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
INCREASING TO BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE CORRIDOR IN BETWEEN,
INCLUDING THE METRO VALLEY, IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.
A CRITICAL FORECAST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOW SUGGEST THAT THE COLUMN WILL LARGELY
SUPPORT RAIN, OR COLUMN WET-BULBING DOWN TO FREEZING TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN. WHILE DYNAMIC COOLING AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET,
THE PREDOMINANT MODE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS APPEARS TO BE A
TRANSITION FROM COLD RAIN TO WET SNOW, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
ELSEWHERE, A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGICALLY, SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED DUE TO RECENT
SNOWMELT. THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOILS AND THE FORECAST
0.50-1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES INTRODUCES
A RISK FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING. REGARDING RIVER ICE, MOST
WATERWAYS IN THE SOUTH ARE NOW OPEN. WHILE SOME ICE REMAINS ON
RIVERS IN THE NORTH, THE MINIMAL QPF FORECAST FOR THOSE BASINS,
COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW STREAMFLOWS, SUGGESTS THE RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS IS MINIMAL, BUT NOT ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. A DISTINCT WARMING TREND
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGE. NBM DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURES AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS A DEVIATION
FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AND WILL AID IN FURTHER DRYING OF
REGIONAL FUELS AS SPRING FIRE SEASON APPROACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
TRANSIT NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY DRAGGING A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS MAY GENERATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS EVEN IN THE ABSENCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
BY LATE WEEK, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS GLOBAL MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE
ROCKIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT COULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO VALLEY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 02/14/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN COALFIELD BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.
RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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