467
FXUS61 KRLX 092343
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
743 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATES FOR RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AVIATION FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE
TO VERY DRY RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. THE LOWEST END OF THE RH RANGE AND THE
HIGHER END OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR OHIO COUNTIES
AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWLAND COUNTIES IN WEST
VIRGINIA. A FIRE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND STATE FORESTRY CONTACTS. THIS STATEMENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT.
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY OPEN
BURNING AND MACHINERY THAT MAY THROW SPARKS. PROPERLY DISPOSE OF
ANY CIGARETTES AND FOLLOW ANY LOCAL BURN LAWS THAT MAY BE
IN PLACE.
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED RECOVER TONIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS TOMORROW
LOOK JUST AS DRY AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE MORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH FLEETING CHANCES POSSIBLE ALONG IT. THE AIR COLUMN WILL
STILL BE VERY DRY SO MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE,
BUT LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, DRIER WEATHER RESUMES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A STARK WARMING TREND TAKING PLACE STARTING
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY WARM TO EVEN HOT SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN AND
ADDED CROSSING OF DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW. MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A COLD FRONT
BRINGS CLOUD COVERAGE IN BY THE EVENING ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS AND RAIN CHANCES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...JZ
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