963
FXUS61 KRLX 302336
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
635 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MEASURABLE SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
TOMORROW (SATURDAY).
- 2) ARCTIC COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING UP. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXTREME
COLD WATCHES ARE ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST
RANDOLPH COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- 3) A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW, BUT THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO GO INTO DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC TODAY. MEANWHILE, A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, THE SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND UP THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE TRACK OF
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO BRING
WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED FOR OUR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING
CAN EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND SNOW-COVERED
ROADS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS ALSO A TIER OF COUNTIES CURRENTLY UNDER
AN ADVISORY JUST NORTH OF THE WARNED AREA. THESE PLACES WILL SEE
LESS MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, BUT MAY STILL SEE TRAVEL
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY SECONDARY ROADS ARE STILL ICY
FROM OUR PREVIOUS WINTER STORM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LONG-LASTING COLD WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS
ANOTHER REINFORCING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO,
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REACH
ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE. EXPECT
A VERY COLD DAY, AND DRESS WARMLY IF YOU NEED TO SPEND TIME
OUTDOORS.
EXTREME COLD WATCHES ARE ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND
SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WIND
CHILLS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. ADDITIONAL
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ACROSS A LARGER PORTION
OF THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE VERY
COLD, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW FOR MONDAY
MORNING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL VERY SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL BE NEXT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, SO WE WILL NOT GO INTO SPECIFICS. MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LOW, AND
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THIS TRACK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST SITES TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE BKW WHERE MVFR CEILINGS
AND TEMPORARILY IFR VISIBILITY UNDER A SNOW SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT BKW THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE ONSET OF SNOW SHOWERS AT KBKW COULD BE
SOONER OR LATER THAN EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS KCRW OR KHTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT THESE SITES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ006>011-
014-016>020-028>032-039-040-521>526.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ024>026-034-515-516.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...ARJ
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