633
FXUS61 KRLX 160954
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
554 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING ON THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IS FASTER, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SHIFTED
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EASTWARD, DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING OF THE
WEEKEND COLD FRONT IS ALSO FASTER, AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING EAST FROM
THERE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSEASONABLY TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. DRY DEAD FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
JOINED BY WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH TODAY.
- 3) A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- 4) A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL END THE WARM SPELL, BRINGING A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT INCLUDING STRONG TO POSSIBLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING, AND THEN COLDER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- 5) MUCH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, ALONG WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES IN THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GIVES WAY TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TODAY, AND THEN REBUILDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS MAY MAKE RECORD HIGHS HARDER TO BREACH
TODAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD BACK
AS STRONG AS IT IS EARLY THIS MORNING, SO HIGHS FRIDAY REMAIN A
BIT STUNTED AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES WILL BE IN THE
30S THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY INCOMING SYSTEMS FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES WILL THEN BE IN THE 20S NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MOST DAYS (LESS
FRIDAY), AND ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR A CONDITIONAL
WETTING RAIN, AFTERNOON AND EVENING FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE
ENHANCED. THIS MAY BE MITIGATED BY RAPIDLY INCREASED CANOPY
COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
FUELS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY. THIS, COUPLED WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE, ELEVATES FIRE DANGER TODAY. LIGHTER
WINDS, AND AN INTERVENING CONDITIONAL WETTING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, MAY MITIGATE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS A BIT
ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY MAY THEN TURN OUT SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH
INTERVENING DRYING AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
INCOMING FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TIMING CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER ON A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND NOW
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
FAST ENOUGH TO INCREASE SHEAR DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTWARD, SO
THAT IT IS NOW DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO ADEQUATE
SHEAR AMID LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS, AND HAIL
FROM DISCRETE CELLS GIVEN ADEQUATE CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
LAYER.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT BENEFICIAL
IN TERMS OF A CONDITIONAL WETTING RAIN, BUT NOT PUT MUCH OF A
DENT IN OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS GIVEN AT BEST MODEST AREA-
AVERAGED QPF AMID THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS, THE
NEXT ONE IN THE NEXT KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND
AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TIMING CONTINUES TO
TREND FASTER ON THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, WITH SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THIS TROUGH DRIVES A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS AGAIN LIKELY TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION VIA INCREASED SHEAR. THE INSTABILITY
FORECAST WILL AGAIN NEED WATCHED GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, AND TIMING NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE MAGNITUDE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
UPSTREAM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM RESULTS IN A BETTER INTERSECTION OF THE STRONG SHEAR WITH
THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COINCIDENT WITH THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING EASTWARD
FROM THERE TO ENCOMPASS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING LOWLANDS
OVER WEST VIRGINIA, AS THE WIND AND HAIL THREATS WANE WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT THROUGH THE EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN PROVIDE MINIMAL DROUGHT RELIEF ALTHOUGH
THE EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SOMEWHAT
BENEFICIAL ADDITIONAL NIGHTTIME WETTING RAIN. ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
IS TO FOLLOW, NEXT KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
A PERIOD OF DRY, COOLER WEATHER WILL START THE NEW WEEK, AS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LONG WAVE BUT TRANSIENT TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPS H85 TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY, TO -5C GIVE OR TAKE SUNDAY NIGHT, COMPARED WITH
THE +15C OR SO H85 TEMPERATURES OF THE CURRENT UNSEASONABLY WARM
SPELL. HIGHS WILL RETREAT TO THE 50S TO LOW 60S F FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE AWAY FROM
MAJOR RIVERS SEEING FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS,
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE PROMPTLY FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE EXITING HIGH ALLOWS RETURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BENEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH,
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER MAY DROP IN MIDWEEK. THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES,
TO INCLUDE THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEW SHORT WAVE BRINGS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY CAN PRODUCE
STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THERE MAY BE MVFR
MIST, AND MVFR STRATOCUMULUS IS LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING, WITH 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO VARIABLE TONIGHT. LATE-DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL
BECOME MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FLUCTUATE, POSSIBLY
INCLUDING STRONGER GUSTS THAN FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE CASE
OF A DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACT, WHICH COULD ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE
MINIMAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR OR WORSE
MIST OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/16/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------
THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 |
--------------------------------------
CRW | 86 / 89 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 84 / 89 (2024) | 85 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 83 / 86 (2002) | 78 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 83 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 81 / 84 (2002) | 76 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 82 / 85 (2012) | 77 / 87 (1976) |
--------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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