509
FXUS61 KRLX 050923
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
523 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND STORMS, TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT AS HOT
TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK
DOWN, WITH APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL WAVE, AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
STORMS TODAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, BUT, THREATS FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL HAVE DECREASED, AND SPC
HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AIR CONTINUING TO
REMAIN IN PLACE, AND OVERALL LIGHT STEERING FLOW, AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN SPOTS, PARTICULARLY WHERE
REPETITIVE STORMS HIT.
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION TODAY, HAVE ELECTED NOT
TO ISSUE HEAT HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z, WITH A BRIEF
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER,
AFTER 15-18Z, STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AFTER 03Z, THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE,
HOWEVER, AREAS OF MVFR/IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DENSER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS SUNDAY MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H L L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H M L L M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L M H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE
EARLY TO MID WEEK DUE TO LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS.
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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