455
FXUS61 KRLX 092321
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND TRI-STATE AREA OF WV/OH/KY. ~18Z
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE TABLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS AND ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EMERGE STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A SWEEPING LINE OF TRAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL
BEING THE MAIN RISKS FOR ANY ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HYDRO ISSUES IN THE FORM OF LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ROUNDS
OF SLOWER MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRIPE OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH NEW MODEL RUNS.
CURRENTLY, 1.50"-2.50" IS PROJECTED TO BE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA/I-64 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THESE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MOVE THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL PROMPT A HEAVY PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY RESIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A DRIER SPELL LOOKS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SHOWER AND POSSIBLE
STORM ACTIVITY WHICH MAY REDUCE VIS DOWN TO MVFR OR WORSE AT
TIMES. CIGS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING HOURS AS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO DETER FOG
FORMATION TONIGHT. CIGS MAY NOT BECOME AS LOW AS THE TAFS IF NO
RAIN IS OCCURRING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN
COVERAGE ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL FILL IN FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOST SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD CAUSE
RESTRICTIONS IF THEY DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL. TIMING OF
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOWER CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...JZ
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