962  
FXUS61 KRLX 041111  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
711 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, AS IT  
DRIFTS EAST. COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER THIS  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 711 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST ON TRACK, RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG REMAINS CONFINED  
MAINLY TO THE WARMER MAIN STEMS OF WV AND VA.  
 
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND  
TONIGHT, YIELDING TO DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE  
COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, SAVE FOR  
THE CIRRUS LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MIXING LAYER  
SUFFICIENT FOR AN AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD, AS WELL AS EARLY  
MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG, MAINLY ALONG THE MAIN  
STEMS WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S. THE CIRRUS, AND THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT,  
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, SHOULD KEEP FOG MORE  
CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS  
TONIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AT LEAST AS HIGH AS ON  
TUESDAY, AND LOWS A TAD HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING ON  
ACCOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, ABOVE NORMAL  
ALL AROUND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
* WARM, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON THURSDAY.  
* COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN, ISOLATED STORMS, AND COOLER  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH  
APPROACH ON THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
DURING THE DAY, THEN PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS START SPREADING INTO THE  
CWA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES  
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY  
NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR, THOUGH FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS ONLY EVINCE A MEAGER AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.  
 
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, CLOUD  
COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS  
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60S IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. COOLER  
TEMPERATURES THAT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALLOW HIGHS TO RETURN TO  
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR  
THE HIGH ELEVATIONS, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REACHES UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
* PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ON SATURDAY.  
* WINDY AND MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND.  
* COOL, BUT DRIER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LESSENS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A FRONT;  
HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF AN UPPER  
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. STRONG  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT KICKS IN BEHIND THE FONT WILL PROMOTE WINDY  
CONDITIONS AND TRANSPORT COLD CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE AREA. IF  
ENOUGH MOISTURE PERSISTS FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT,  
A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR  
WITHIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW THAT ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY  
PIVOT EAST. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE DRIER CONDITIONS  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE  
SOUTH.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING IN HIGH ELEVATION  
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WHILE STILL COOLER  
THAN NORMAL, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 711 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
RIVER VALLEY FOG WAS LIMITED COMPARED WITH THE PAST SEVERAL  
MORNING, DENSE FOG AT EKN WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE 13-14Z, AND  
ANY MVFR MIST OR POCKETS OF DENSE FOG COMING OFF THE RIVERS AT  
CRW, PKB AND CKB WILL BE GONE BY 13Z.  
 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND, FOR  
THE MOST PART, TONIGHT, AS IT DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE  
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY AND  
LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT, ALL BENEATH LIGHT SOUTH  
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG  
ALL BUT THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE EKN AS  
LONG AS DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE AND HOLDS THERE.  
 
STRATUS AND A VISIBILITY REDUCTION MAY REACH BKW TOWARD DAWN  
THURSDAY ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP AT EKN TONIGHT IF A  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW REACHES THE SURFACE THERE. VICE VERSA,  
FOG MAY FORM AT OTHER SITES, MOST LIKELY CRW AND PERHAPS CKB  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE WED 10/04/23  
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20  
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16  
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG AT EKN THURSDAY  
MORNING.  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB  
NEAR TERM...TRM  
SHORT TERM...JLB  
LONG TERM...JLB  
AVIATION...TRM  
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