419
FXUS61 KRLX 131853
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
253 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST OF THE CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WERE TIED TO THE
STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WERE INCREASED WHILE ALSO BACKING OFF ON WINDS A BIT IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED, HOWEVER, WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUBSEQUENT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGERS INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED HIGH WATER
IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND/OR STORMS.
2.) A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR AND LINGERING GUSTY WINDS.
3.) SOME CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A THREAT OF
FROST EXISTS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ENOUGH OF A PUFF IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MITIGATE RIVER VALLEY FOG, SAVE FOR
PERHAPS THE TYGART VALLEY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT
SAGGING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING SOME ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING AND ENHANCED BY ANOMOUSLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 ) FOR MOST WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEER AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
WHILE THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL FADE TOMORROW NIGHT, THE FRONT
WILL LINGER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TRAVERSING
THE SAME AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS
CONSIDERING THE ANOMALOUS PWATS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
THIS OCCURS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, THOUGH SOUTHEAST OH,
NORTHEAST KY AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN WV ARE THE AREAS WHERE THERE
ARE SOME MODEL CONVERGENCE. WPC CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NORTH AS WARM FRONT DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND FEW SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT RESEMBLING
AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HILLTOPS AND RIDGETOPS WITH THIS
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO
35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WITH 20 TO 25 KTS FOR THS HILLTOPS AND RIDGES
ELSEWHERE.
THE FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRIDAY
WITH GUSTY SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR. THESE FRONTAL WINDS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER HITS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SHOWERY UPSLOPE ENHANCED LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THIS MAY BE REALIZED AS SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE THREAT FOR
FROST ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND A FREEZE IN THE MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD.
A SLOW MODERATING TREND WILL ENSUE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE
18Z END TIME.
ENOUGH OF A PUFF OFF THE DECK SHOULD MITIGATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT SAVE FOR PERHAPS EKN. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME THOUGH.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND PICK BACK UP
TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EXCEPT MEDIUM AT EKN
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN FORECAST AT
EKN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...30
AVIATION...30
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