034
FXUS61 KRLX 040759
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
359 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
4 AM UPDATE... NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
2 AM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS PACKAGES. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN TIMING WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER.
2) VERY WARM TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, AND TURNING MUCH COOLER
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED A
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO (500-1,000 J/KG MLCAPE), AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO 25-35 KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. THESE INGREDIENTS MAY LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS WEST
VIRGINIA. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET. THEREFORE, AS STORMS EVENTUALLY
CROSS THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE THIS EVENING, THEY WILL LIKELY RUN
OUT OF FUEL. EVEN AS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS TONIGHT EAST OF THE
OHIO RIVER, GUSTY SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50- 0.75 INCH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY,
PROMOTING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL VERY WARM TODAY, REACHING THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS IS ALL DUE TO A VERY STRONG
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM AIR. SUNDAY
WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY, AND
COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. BEYOND
TUESDAY, A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT,
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FREEZE BECAUSE WINDS MAY BE JUST BREEZY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY WILL BEGIN WITH VFR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN BREEZY BY
14-16Z WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 KTS.
STARTING AROUND 18 TO 20Z, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
APPROACH KPKB AND KHTS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z, PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR.
LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED AT KEKN AND KCKB BETWEEN 22Z THIS EVENING
AND 07Z SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 04/04/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page