308
FXUS61 KRLX 271310
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
910 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
825 AM UPDATE...
THE FROST ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED SLIGHTLY EARLY GIVEN
TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
507 AM UPDATE...
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LOWER
THAN BEFORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
2.) STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.
3.) A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
4.) MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AND A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE BEFORE IT'S ARRIVAL WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EVEN SO, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
DAMAGING WINDS IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY. IF SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER PERSIST DEEP INTO TUESDAY MORNING, IT WILL SEVERELY
INHIBIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION,
POTENTIALLY CAPPING PARCELS AT THE BASE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AND PREVENTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ENTIRELY. SOME MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING VERY DRY 700 MB AIR, THAT
COULD ALSO ACT AS A CAP. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN A TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW END PROBABILITIES ARE
SAYING AT LEAST A WIDESPREAD TENTH OR TWO, WITH HIGH END
PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT
COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. EXCEPT FOR
THE FOG AND SOME MVFR/IFR CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG DISSIPATING EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
EDT 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY/GW
AVIATION...RPY
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