388
FXUS61 KRLX 011616
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1216 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING
LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON GOES SATELLITE OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS, MOVING EASTWARD. SHOWERS ARE SEEN TRACKING
EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FROM TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY, AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO KENTUCKY SUNDAY,
AREAWIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE DAY
WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
800-1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IF
TRAINING CELLS IMPACT THE SAME AREAS WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE WPC CURRENTLY HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE AND A HALF INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SAME LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MAY DEVELOP EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK
HEATING.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. VFR SHOULD BE THE MAIN FLIGHT
CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT DOWNPOURS MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR IFR FOR A TIME.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, LLWS IS
ALSO EXPECTED BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET PASSES OVERHEAD. WIDESPREAD IFR FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS, BUT
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KEKN AND KBKW BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 16Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL VARY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS MAY BE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT
KEKN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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