000
FXUS61 KRLX 041821
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED, WITH THE AREA ENTERING
INTO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK FEATURING GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AMID THE EXODUS
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS AMID WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ROOM FOR A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING TODAY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED ON SATELLITE AT THE
TIME OF WRITING, WITH FURTHER VERTICAL GROWTH STARTING TO
TRANSPIRE. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUOUSLY FEED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEK,
SETTING OFF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
FOCUSING ON TODAY, THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE ADVANCING CUTOFF
LOW WILL BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE KANAWHA
VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AT
SUNSET WILL CHOP OFF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND LONGEVITY OF
STORMS, BUT UNTIL THEN LIGHTNING AND A QUICK DOWNPOUR WILL BE
FEATURE WITH TODAY'S ACTIVITY. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND
INCREASED CLOUDS WILL THEN ROUND OUT THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW FEATURED IN KEY MESSAGE 1 WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT TO PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING ACROSS THE PARENT TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
WEEK, BUT AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK.
CUMULUS FIELDS WILL BLOOM EACH AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE THE MAIN FEATURES WITH ACTIVITY THIS WEEK, AND COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES, DEPENDENT ON PLACEMENT OF STORMS
AND ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z SATELLITE AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASED CLOUDS PARKED
BETWEEN 25-50KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AMID AN ENCROACHING
DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTH. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, SO OPTED TO MAINTAIN
VCTS AT A FEW TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ZULU DAY.
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT COULD BECOME DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD
COVERAGE TRENDS. CONFIDENCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY
FOG IS HIGHEST FOR EKN AND CRW OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHER SITES COULD
BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE IN THE EVENT OF A SHOWER OR STORM MOISTENS
THE AIRFIELD TODAY. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, SLIPPING INTO THE
BKW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IS ADVERTISED FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF FLIGHT IMPACTS IS LOW WITH
THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, BECOMING MEDIUM TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS
CAUSED BY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page