710
FXUS61 KRLX 301755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
155 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO D1 POPS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR
TONIGHT. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
2.) A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.
3.) A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COOLER CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS
LOWER CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S OR UPPER
20S IN SPOTS WILL ALLOW FOR FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
TO A LESSER DEGREE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN SPOTS.
THE LIMITING REAGENT IN FROST FORMATION THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS
LOOKS TO BE CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY HUG THE RIDGES TONIGHT.
TOMORROW FROST POTENTIAL SHIFTS WEST INTO EASTERN OHIO, BUT MORE
STOUT CLOUD COVER MAY LOWER THIS RISK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH LINGERING CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE FLEETING NEAR THE RIDGES AS WE NEAR SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
ROUND THROUGH THE FLOW AND EACH BRINGS RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
TODAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN WITH
THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO RETURN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL OHIO.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD SATURDAY, ALLOWING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FAVORING THE EASTERN RIDGES, AIDED BY
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS SOMETIME MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES STILL DON'T YET FULLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS
WAVE, WITH CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES FAVORING A POSSIBLY SLOWER WAVE.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING, THE PRESENCE OF THIS
WAVE LIKELY RENEWS RAIN CHANCES AND PROMOTES ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
AIRPORTS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS CREATING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
SITES.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT ON WHETHER ANY FOG WILL FORM.
WINDS WILL BE CALM HOWEVER, SO ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE. MOST LIKELY LOCATION AS IS TYPICAL WILL BE
ELKINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSE FOG IN VALLEYS SUCH AS ELKINS MAY
NOT EVOLVE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER/WINDS OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
NOT AVAILABLE IN PBZ BACKUP MODE.
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY CKB AND EKN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS. CLOSE CALL BUT
LIKELY VFR ELSEWHERE. MVFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ031-032-039-040-515>522-524.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CRAVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page