904
FXUS61 KRLX 082330
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
WITH RAIN, THEN MUCH COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1210 PM SATURDAY...
A MILD AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TODAY AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE LOWLANDS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY, BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION AND WIND AREAWIDE.
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS COLD AIR
QUICKLY RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST, RAIN
WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY, THERE WILL BE A TIGHTENED ISOBARIC
GRADIENT FIELD OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, CREATING WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA SUNDAY, AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS,
GUSTING 30-40 MPH BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1211 PM SATURDAY...
EVENTUALLY, RAIN WILL ALSO MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850-MB WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING
DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM), THE PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 1 INCH IS GENERALLY 50-60% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 90-100%
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE RIDGES
OF POCAHONTAS, RANDOLPH, AND WEBSTER COUNTIES. THE PROBABILITY OF
SNOWFALL MEETING OR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IS ONLY 20-40% ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, BUT STILL REMAINS AT 60-80% ACROSS THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
RIDGES. ACROSS THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES, PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO
DROP OFF AT 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL (40-50% PROBABILITY).
GIVEN THESE PROBABILITIES, THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES OF NORTHWEST
POCAHONTAS, SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH, AND SOUTHEAST WEBSTER COUNTIES. IN
THESE LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING (UPPER 20S,
LOWER 30S) ALL DAY. ELSEWHERE, SOME SNOW IS STILL LIKELY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ACCUMULATION WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. IN ADDITION TO THE AIR TEMPERATURE, ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES,
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
BECAUSE OF THIS, WE HAVE LOW-TO-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OUR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION FORECAST.
WIND GUSTS MONDAY WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 25-40 MPH AREAWIDE, WHICH
WILL MAKE THE AIR FEEL LIKE THE MIDDLE OF WINTER. 'FEELS LIKE'
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY, AND IN
THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES, THE 'FEELS LIKE' TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ALL DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE 20S
IN THE LOWLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH 'FEELS LIKE'
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT ON TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY, WHICH WILL
BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER TO
RETURN. DESPITE THE QUIETER WEATHER, COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER 40S IN THE
LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1211 PM SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AS 500-MB
HEIGHTS SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
FLOWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 500-MB TROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA
DRY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL.
MODELS SHOW A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A WARMING TREND BEGINNING NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...
VFR RULES INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS UNTIL EKN MAY
HAVE RESTRICTIONS UNDER VALLEY FOG. THE REST OF THE SITES
SHOULD STAY OUT OF VALLEY FOG DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT AND/OR
CLOUDY CONDITONS. THEREFORE, PREVAILING VIS SHOULD BE LEFT
UNRESTRICTED, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE TIMES PATCHY FOG ROLLS
INTO SITES, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE THEME FOR TOMORROW IS MAINLY IN AND OUT OF MVFR/VFR WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS AROUND 15-20KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED HIGHER GUST OF 25-30KTS DUE TO HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND
POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS BRINGING THOSE WINDS DOWN, THEORETICALLY.
THEREAFTER, RAIN SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RESTRICTIONS TO VIS AND LOWER CIGS TURNING INTO LOWER
IFR STRATUS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COULD END UP DEVELOPING IN MORE
LOCATIONS THAN JUST KEKN OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JZ
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