711
FXUS61 KRLX 241029
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
629 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 246 AM MONDAY...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS WERE PUSHING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH OTHER SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVER KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
THE SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHWEST WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES.
LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED
WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT THE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY WITH LIKELY OR EVEN
CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
WEST VIRGINIA TODAY.
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA AS SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING. IN
FACT, MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATER TODAY WHICH WILL ELIMINATE
THE DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT POPS WILL THEN
INCREASE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS COULD SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS THAN THOUGHT.
NOT CONFIDENT IN THE NEED FOR THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY DID NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, WILL LEAVE IN PLACE
FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INCREASING WARMTH, AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO START
THE PERIOD, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
PASSAGE. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY, WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED, AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, AROUND 1.8 INCHES. STORMS WILL MOVE DUE TO INCREASING
FLOW, BUT WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS, WATER ISSUES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER,
BUT BETTER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A MARGINAL RISK
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KY ZONES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR, ON THE ORDER OF 40-50+KTS,
WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. OF COURSE, WITH THE
ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS, IT WON'T NECESSARILY TAKE A SEVERE
GUST TO RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE/DOWNED TREES ACROSS THE AREA. A
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. THE WEEKEND AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE DRY, WITH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER, WITH
WARM SUNNY DAYS, AND COOL FOGGY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 629 AM MONDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION. STATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WERE REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ALSO SEEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WERE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED TO
OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH TODAY AND AS A
RESULT, THE AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
IN AND NEAR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS, CONDITIONS WILL DETEORIATE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH, CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 15Z.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL
SYSTEMS MOVING BY, CONDITIONS SHOULD DETEORIATE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AFTER 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY 15Z AND
THEN SOPUTHERLY BY 23Z.
FORECAST SCENARIOS AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PCPN AND CHANGE OF CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE LIFR
AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND POST RAIN STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>008-
013>020-027>031.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ086-087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH
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