727
FXUS61 KRLX 061730
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1230 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
A FRONT. MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN ROUNDS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
.. AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY
FOR THE TIME BEING, IT APPEARS WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY DOES LINGER ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, AS THE POPS
AND QPF ARE BOTH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV. CONSIDERING THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME-HEIGHT SERIES, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP
LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS GOING
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THIS DATA, BUT AS THE DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER DIMINISHES
AND WINDS START TO VEER MORE SW'LY, SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
FINALLY CUT OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA,
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH A BIT MORE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WV. RUNNING UP INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WE COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE A QUARTER INCH OR A BIT MORE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE BETTER FOCUS OF MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS TO BE DIRECTED. UNDER CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY, WE'LL STILL BE WARMING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S FOR MOST
OF THE LOWLANDS AS THE SW'LY WINDS PICK UP AND PROMOTE SOME
MIXING. MILDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, WITH LOWS GENERALLY MID-30S TO MID-40S,
DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. POST-
FRONT, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A WILD
CARD BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATER AFTERNOON SUNSHINE THAT
COULD BREAK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF STINT OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STUBBORN POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WILL BE COLD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UPPER
20S AND 30S ON THE BOARD.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. REMINISCENT OF APRIL INSTEAD OF JANUARY. THE LOWLANDS CAN
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR WEST LATE THURSDAY,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AND COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT, NAMELY NORTHEASTERN KY AND A CHUNK OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA. GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
OR AROUND AN INCH.
MODELS, SPECIFICALLY THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO,
PREDICT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BE NEAR AN
INCH OR OVER AN INCH. LUCKILY, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS WELL OVER
TWO TO THREE INCHES, SO MOST OF THE RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THIS RAINFALL. ESPECIALLY, SINCE MOST OF IT WILL BE
FALLING OVER A 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. SNOW MELT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MAY POSE SOME ISSUES NONETHELESS. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT
SOME MINOR PROBLEMS COULD OCCUR, PARTICULARLY FOR RIVERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK COURTESY
OF SULTRY GULF MOISTURE VIA SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE LOWLANDS
WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S WITH THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS
SNEAKING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES. THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED RAINFALL WILL BE WRAPPING UP BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. ALLOWED CHANCES FOR LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT RACES DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW LOOKS PROMISING
WITH THIS STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT. A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE A
LIKELY OUTCOME ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS GIVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH 20S AND 30S ON THE BOARD, AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THIS. THE GFS WANTS TO GO WITH A
SOLID 1 TO 3 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY; THE EURO SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 540 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER
SCT TO BKN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. EKN HAS SHOWED SIGNS OF PATCHY FOG
WITH CALM WINDS AND 100% RH, BUT UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND
WINDS ALOFT MAY BE DISRUPTING ITS FORMATION. GOING TO HOLD 6SM
AND BR FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO PICK UP IN THE VALLEY.
MVFR CEILINGS MOVE BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN AS WELL WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
AT PKB, CKB, AND EKN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE CALM EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A WARM FRONT WILL
CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AFTER ~12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS BETWEEN
15 AND 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY BE PRESENT AT EKN
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE ~12Z FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING OF
MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H M H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H L H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC
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