127
FXUS61 KRLX 050022
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY. SEASONABLY COLD THROUGH
TONIGHT, MUCH WARMER STARTING MONDAY. MULTIPLE SYSTEMS AFFECT
THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY, EACH BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER THE LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER
20S AT MANY PLACES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FURTHER DROP INTO THE
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
AS OF 120 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1025 MB) CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY WILL STEADILY TRAVERSE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN EVENTUALLY OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TRANSLATES TO A CONTINUED PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF LINGERING BKN-OVC MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA, THAT WILL GRADUALLY
EXIT SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BEING ON THE CHILLY
SIDE ONCE AGAIN, IN GENERAL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH MID TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ONCE
AGAIN COULD BE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG / FREEZING FOG THAT
DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD AGAIN BE PRIMARILY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS,
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LOWLANDS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE A BIT OF SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER
TODAY COULD HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS UNTIL
SUNSET. ELSEWHERE, DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
THIS POTENTIAL.
RETURN FLOW ON MONDAY RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP, WITH
HIGHS PROGGED FOR THE MID 40S TO 60 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE
LOW 40S TO UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AMID STEADY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF
15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(20-50%) AND TUESDAY NIGHT (30-70%) AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE, GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, PERHAPS UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. DRY
WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A BUBBLE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ~ 5 DEGREES WARMER. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE
MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS, QUICKLY ERODING ANY LINGERING
SNOWPACK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ~ 5 DEGREES COOLER FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY,
WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...
A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM, A COLORADO LOW, QUICKLY CUTS TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
EVEN HAVING A SECONDARY (DEEPER) LOW DEVELOPING AND CROSSING
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT
DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE REFINED, THIS OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS OUR
FORECAST AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AREA-
WIDE (EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS). AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES TOWARDS/THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN A
DECENT SOUTHWEST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF, RAIN
COULD BE MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES (PRIMARILY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT). THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING HYDRO ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF THE
FRONT WERE TO BECOME MORE SO STATIONARY WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW AT PRESENT. COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND RESULTANT LOW/MID LEVEL
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE
LOWLANDS, WHILE LOW/MID 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD STRONG OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
DECK ABOUT 20,000 FEET MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, ENTERING WV
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MOST SITES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
EKN AND BKW WHERE MVFR/IFR LOW STATUS OR LIGHT FREEZING FOG MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. ANY RESTRICTION WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BY SUNSET MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, THEN
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 15 KTS OR SO POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AMD NOT SKED REMAINS ON THE EKN TAF GIVEN CONTINUED MISSING
OBSERVATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT WITH FOG, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG OR LOW STATUS MAY NOT OCCUR AT EKN/BKW
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN.
EQUIPMENT
OBSERVATIONS AT KEKN REMAIN MISSING DUE TO A SERVICE OUTAGE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...ARJ
EQUIPMENT...GW
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