768
FXUS61 KRLX 130124
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
924 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
WITH STRONG, HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 600 PM WEDNESDAY...
DID SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTING TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO GET
THEM DOWN TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THEN TWEAKED THE TRENDS OUT
PAST THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST WAS TRENDING A LITTLE HIGH ON
RH VALUES. ALSO, TWEAKED WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS STRONGER GUSTS
WERE MIXING DOWN.
AS OF 1245 PM WEDNESDAY...
A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO, A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP SLIGHTLY WITH THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1259 PM WEDNESDAY...
WARM, QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT,
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. MODELS SHOW 500-1,000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY 18Z SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN WV, NORTHEAST KY, AND SOUTHEAST OH. MAXIMUM INSTABILITY
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, TENNESSEE,
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SATURDAY, OUTSIDE OF OUR COVERAGE AREA.
A COUPLE OF MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY 00Z
SUNDAY, WHILE THE NAM STILL KEEPS SOME FAVORABLE CAPE OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA AT 00Z SUNDAY. WHETHER STORMS DEVELOP BEFORE THE
BEST INSTABILITY RUNS OUT REMAINS THE QUESTION, BECAUSE THE BEST
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG WITH 40-50+ KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR
EXPECTED. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE
WIND ENVIRONMENT TO ORGANIZE. OBVIOUSLY, MANY QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN BECAUSE THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL HASN'T
MOVED ONSHORE YET, AND MODELS HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO ADEQUATELY
SAMPLE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST WILL CERTAINLY
BE FINE TUNED WITH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE COMING DAYS. AT THIS
TIME, SPC STILL HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED IN A 15% RISK AREA FOR
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1259 PM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. GENERALLY, WE EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO
STABILIZE BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY, BUT THEY WILL STILL
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY, BRIEFLY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MONDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY, BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER
AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN
AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. MAINLY JUST HIGH
CLOUDS UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS SNEAK IN
BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT CIGS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 03/13/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ
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