132
FXUS61 KRLX 111007
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED
STORMS COULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
2) DRIER AND TRENDING WARMER TOWARDS MIDWEEK, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
MAY ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WHILE A LOW
WANDERS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT TODAY, WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
LOCATIONS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING TODAY. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FLOOD WATCH, WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO FLOODING, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT, LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME RENEWED
ACTIVITY, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRIER WEATHER BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AMID A
WARMING TREND, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID, THE DETAILS REMAIN A BIT MURKY AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTER 00Z, EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG, STRATUS, AND SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H M M H L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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