504  
FXUS61 KRLX 150539  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
139 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER, DRIER AIR PUSHES IN TONIGHT, AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR  
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...  
 
DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED SLIGHTLY. SMALLEST DEPRESSIONS WERE  
ACROSS THE NORTH, WHERE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO START  
FORMING FIRST.  
 
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...  
 
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ON THROUGH, TAKING CONVECTION WITH IT.  
COOLER AND ESPECIALLY DRIER AIR WAS QUICKLY FILTERING IN BEHIND  
THE FRONT, WITH DEW POINTS WELL DOWN IN THE 50S, EVEN THE UPPER  
40S IN SPOTS. BLENDED IN HIRES MODEL FORECAST DATA FOR LOWER  
TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWER DEW  
POINTS ALSO FOR MONDAY, THE CHANGE MAINLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
AS OF 133 PM SATURDAY...  
 
SFC FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING TO CWA FROM NE TO SW...FROM  
NEAR CLARKSBURG TO CHARLESTON TO JACKSON, KY. SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT,  
COINCIDENT WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT ENE  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE NE  
MOUNTAINS...AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA OF  
RESPONSIBILITY. SPC HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF  
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE NE MOUNTAINS AS AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM  
MAY OCCUR, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY  
THREAT. HOWEVER, THE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED.  
 
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD  
GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY  
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH DECOUPLING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS. AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER LAND TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS  
TONIGHT SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, GIVEN  
THE DRIER AIRMASS PROG TO BE IN PLACE.  
 
CRISP BLUE SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A VERY DRY  
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE EXISTING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE VERY WARM,  
HOWEVER, AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS WILL PROMOTE  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...  
 
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RAINSHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE  
AREA, COURTESY OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SHOULD QUICKLY  
DRY OUT WITH THE HELP OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND A SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE PROG TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A BROAD  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS PERIOD REINFORCING  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION FURTHER  
PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING  
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...  
 
THIS PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE DOES  
FLATTEN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD MAKING THE AREA  
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE START OF THE  
WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  
MODELS ARE HIGHLY IN DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING SO DECIDED TO LEAVE  
OUT CHANCE POPS AND GO WITH THE MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH  
MAKES THIS PERIOD A DRY SPELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY  
AIR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 133 AM SUNDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH  
WARM RIVER WATER WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG  
OVERNIGHT. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE EKN AND PKB  
STARTING AROUND 08Z. DENSE FOG COULD ALSO IMPACT CKB AND HTS  
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
OUTSIDE RIVER VALLEYS. ANY FOR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY  
12-13Z.  
 
CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY. LIGHT  
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH BY  
SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,  
OTHERWISE HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG SEVERITY OVERNIGHT MAY NOT BE AS BAD  
AS TAFS CURRENTLY INDICATE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SUN 09/15/19  
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14  
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M M M M L H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M M M L H  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M M M M M M L H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M M M M L H  
 
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...  
EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RH/TRM/JZ/RG  
NEAR TERM...RH/TRM  
SHORT TERM...JZ  
LONG TERM...JZ  
AVIATION...ARJ  
 
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