430
FXUS61 KRLX 081208
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE UPDATED FOG COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY LIFT / DISSIPATE. HAVE
ALSO REMOVED ANY RAIN MENTION FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE
MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG / STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD
DELAY ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES A BIT LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
REMAINING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AMID SOME FORCING FROM A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIODIC CROSSING UPPER WAVES. STEERING FLOW
REMAINS LIGHT TODAY, AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT DOES PICKUP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER AIR DYNAMICS BEGIN TO RULE.
THIS WILL MEAN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE DRIVEN BY THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FORECAST PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0" RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AFTER PATCHY DENSE FOG LIFTS, EXPECT A CUMULUS DECK TO FORM BY
MID MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING
RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG LIFTING COULD VARY. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE WEEKEND, MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY/GW
AVIATION...RPY
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