021
FXUS61 KRLX 042346
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. ADDITIONALLY, A SLIGHT RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PERRY
AND MORGAN COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
131 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
- 2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
- 3) THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA IN A VERY WARM WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A FREEZING LEVEL
OF 12000-13000 FT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOWING IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE KEY MESSAGE 1 FOR DETAILS ON
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK TO DETERMINE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES, WHEN IT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT, AND OTHER DETAILS. THE GFS EVEN TRIES TO DEVELOP A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY. THIS
LEADS TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, BUT GENERALLY
WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS FRIDAY MORNING, REMAINING OUTSIDE OF NEIGHBORING TAF
SITES. HOWEVER, A BRIEF DROP IN VSBYS DUE TO FOG WAS ALSO
INCLUDED AT EKN IN SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
THEN BECOMING SLIGHTLY BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION NEAR EKN MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...05
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