908
FXUS61 KRLX 110855
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
455 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING (MAINLY VERY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY GOING FORWARD). HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BIT OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF FRONT.
2) DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA AS BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN.
3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA, HAVING
JUST RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH THE CHARLESTON METRO. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING AS
IT MOVES FURTHER INTO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, WITH
MAINLY JUST ISOLD SHOWERS LEFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, WHILE ISOLD SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT/DIMINISH THROUGH DAWN. OVERALL, THIS WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF IN TERMS OF THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING LONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS, WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. DID TWEAK DEW POINTS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES OF 25-35%, BUT AMID LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW (BREEZES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
MAIN UPDATE TO SATURDAY NIGHT WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE. DIURNAL MIXING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN DEW POINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW (AT LEAST INITIALLY), DO
THINK THAT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DECOUPLE AND RADIATE
EFFICIENTLY, WITH LOW/MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHILE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE TYPICAL
LOWLAND VALLEY COLD SPOTS. PATCHY FROST COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING.
THE CHILLY START SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY REVERSE COURSE
DURING THE DAYTIME AS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT RAPIDLY LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A FAIR BIT OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
(H800-H700) TO THE SURFACE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT, ALONG WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS. MIN RH VALUES OF 25-35%
AND WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH, OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER, WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MORE/LESS REMAINS POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION RESULTING IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MID TO
UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR HIGHS ON MOST
DAYS, WITH MONDAY BEING THE EXCEPTION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES. SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
PERIODIC CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ON MOST DAYS, ESPECIALLY
NORTH, AS WEAK UPPER WAVES CROSS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION
ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT REDUCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COMPARED TO THAT OF LATE.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT PRESENT DUE TO
LOW CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO
MID/LATE MORNING, WITH VFR THEN STEADILY RETURNING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH (AREA-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON). VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY).
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY, WITH
WINDS GOING CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS
EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN SOME
LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH THIS MORNING, HIGH THEREAFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT CKB/EKN THIS
MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 04/11/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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