078
FXUS61 KRLX 210038
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
838 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
830 PM UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED.
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
725 PM MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.
THE REMAINING COUNTIES ARE WEBSTER, LEWIS, UPSHUR AND RANDOLPH
UNTIL 9PM.
350 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9PM FOR SOUTHEAST KY,
SOUTHWEST VA AND MUCH OF WV.
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
RISK FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DOES APPEAR TO BE DISPLACED A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MORNING GUIDANCE DUE TO MORNING
CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL POSE A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
2.) A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY, WITH POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
3.) THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED HIGH WATER
ISSUES. UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE INTRODUCED
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY ACROSS
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN INITIALLY SUGGESTED BY
EARLIER HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, ONGOING INSOLATION AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY,
WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1200-1800 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK, GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KTS, WHICH WILL FAVOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS SOME
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, DRIVEN BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE). GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 TO 45 MPH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE FULLY LEAFED CANOPY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DAMAGE POSSIBLE IN ANY TRUE SEVERE GUSTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS A CONCERN. FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENCOURAGE THE TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11KFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES, WHICH
EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MAY. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE PROBABLE IN THE HEAVIEST CORES. DUE TO
LARGELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, MUCH OF THE REGION CAN
TOLERATE UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A SHORT DURATION.
HOWEVER, AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING,
SPECIFICALLY GREENUP AND CARTER COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY,
AS WELL AS URBAN CENTERS AND STEEP, V-SHAPED HOLLOWS, WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING OR TWO MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT
DOWNPOURS, BUT THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT PRECLUDES THE
NEED FOR A BROADER FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, CAUSING
REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE AND A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, PROVIDING A TEMPORARY DRY
(OR MAINLY DRY) PERIOD. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROP, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES F ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHICH IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH AND LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY, PLACING THE REGION FIRMLY
WITHIN THE UNSETTLED WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING
OF A WET AND ACTIVE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES
OVER THE BOUNDARY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BERMUDA HIGH. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS TODAY, ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME COMPROMISED, LEADING TO A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR HIGH WATER
AND FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, AS ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK, WITH ONLY PERIODIC UPTICKS IN DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE RECORD HEAT
OBSERVED EARLIER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT STORMS TO THE AREA WHICH
ARE DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH AND NUMBERS. THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT
IS THAT LOW STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL SITES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WHICH CAN REDUCE VIS TO MVFR OR
WORSE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON AT MOST
SITES TO AT LEAST MVFR OR BETTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM TAFS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/21/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L H H L L M H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M H L L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M H H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M M M M H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BRIEF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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