063
FXUS61 KRLX 171055
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS PLACED OUR NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OH COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, THE MAIN THREAT
BEING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WORK WEEK TO UNFOLD AFTER TODAY, WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS, AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- 2) THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT WITH COLDER AIR RE-ENTERING THE PICTURE, SNOW
BECOMES A POSSIBILITY, AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS, DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WORK
WEEK.
- 2) MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD, MORE LIKE
SPRING THEN WINTER, BUT ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER WILL RETURN
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A QUIET DAY WITH EARLY MORNING RADIATIVE COOLING AND
RIVER VALLEY FOG, AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THIS WEEK.
A SYSTEM WHISKING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS FAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THAT
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WIND WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST.
A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS THE GULF RIDGE A LITTLE
FURTHER WHILE PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THURSDAY, STARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS.
THE WARM FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL INSOLATION AMID A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WILL CONDUCIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS WILL ONLY PROPEL CAPE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS, SPC HAS PLACED OUR NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OH
COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY,
ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE LOWER OHIO
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WHERE EARLIER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW BETTER CAPE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RIGHT BEHIND IT, WHICH FINALLY ERADICATES THE GULF RIDGE AS IT
CLOSES OFF INTO A MODESTLY DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
BROADER NORTHEAST U.S BY SUNDAY.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW, SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO IT WILL EITHER TRACK UP THE
EAST COAST, OR FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM UNFOLDS, BUT AS PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW IN RESPONSE TO THE COLDER AIR SUNDAY, THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A
WIDESPREAD SNOW FROM A CLOSER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
VERSUS JUST SNOW SHOWERS FROM LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LITTLE TO NO WIND WAS ALLOWING DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORM AND TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO A BELOW FREEZING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE NORMALLY COOLER LOWLANDS
SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. SLICK SPOTS COULD ARISE ON TRAVEL
SURFACES DUE TO FREEZING FOG.
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, COUPLED
WITH A RETURN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARMER AIR AROUND
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE, WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER TODAY, COMPARED WITH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MAINLY IN THE 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 40S LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS.
THIS TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 40S, OVER
THE LOWLANDS, TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE WARM SPELL APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO PEAK ON THURSDAY, WHEN
TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE A RUN AT 70 IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS,
WHERE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STEADY MELT OF THE REMAINING SNOW AND
ICE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND RESIDUAL SNOW AND ICE IN THE
LOWLANDS, BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF OF DRY WEATHER INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT FOR ICE JAMS AND FLOODING AS A RESULT
SHOULD BE LOW, BUT NON-ZERO. WE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FLUSH OUT MORE OF THE RIVER ICE.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, AND
THEN THE DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, AND THE NADIR OF THE COLD WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S LOWLANDS AND 20S MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 10S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DECOUPLED FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE, AND
HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG WAS INCONSISTENT, AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE 13-14Z, AND THE IFR STRATUS SHOULD NOT PERSIST AS
LONG AS ON MONDAY ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, EARLY SOUTH AND LATER NORTH, AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SURFACE FLOW SHOULD LARGELY PREVENT A
RECURRENCE OF FOG TONIGHT.
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, AND THEN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST TODAY, THEN MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD DEVELOP
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AT LEAST AS FAR NORTHEAST AS HTS, BKW AND CRW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE
EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE DISSIPATING FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY FORM FOR A TIME TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 02/17/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L M H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M M L L M L M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M M H H M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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