471
FXUS61 KRLX 252159
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
559 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND MORNING RIVERINE FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE 12Z OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UA CHARTS OBSERVED THAT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY, HAS
STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, WITH GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS NOW AT 592 DAM AT 500 MB. THE OMEGA BLOCK IS BEGINNING TO
COLLAPSE DUE TO A WELL-DEFINED, POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS EJECTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WERE MANUALLY RAISED BY A FEW DEGREES, AS
OBSERVATIONS YESTERDAY WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ANY OF THE NWP
GUIDANCE; AND THIS TREND WILL HOLD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, DEWPOINTS
WERE ONCE AGAIN LOWERED TO ALIGN CLOSER TO THE DRIER MOS GUIDANCE;
AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SHIFT WINDS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST POST-FROPA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE RAIN-FREE; HOWEVER, MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
OCCUR HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MODIFIED MP AIRMASS TRAILING THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THAT SAID, HIGH-LEVEL CIRROFORM
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE DECK
THICKENING HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A REMNANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OVER THE CORN BELT. OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO WHAT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY, AS THE CIRRUS DECK TRAPS OUTGOING LONGWAVE
RADIATION. PROSPECTS FOR RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND RESTORES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...RPY
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