115
FXUS61 KRLX 262337
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 725 PM...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM
THURSDAY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE METRO
VALLEY.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY
FOR HEAVY, BANDED RAINFALL, INITIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH.
2.) ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. TREE DAMAGE IS MORE LIKELY EVEN IN SUB-SEVERE WINDS GIVEN
SATURATED SOILS.
3.) A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BREAKS TO SUNSHINE.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT ANY GUSTS FROM
STORMS COULD UPROOT TREES IN SATURATED SOILS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE CONVECTIVE CORES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
THESE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A BELT OF STRONGER H850 FLOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO FORM IN MASS CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET, COINCIDENT WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, GENERALLY
NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY, THE BOUNDARY AND THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LARGER BASIN RAINFALL
TOTALS, SMALLER BASINS UNDER PERSISTENT HEAVY SHOWERS COULD
STILL SEE QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH POTENTIAL
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
THREAT. WET SOILS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MUD AND ROCK SLIDES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THEY MOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT SHOULD THIS TREND SLOW DOWN, A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION
OF THE WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
AND DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODEST SURFACED BASED
DESTABILIZATION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AMIDST STEEPING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS,
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A CONVECTIVE WIND GUST TO UPROOT
SHALLOW ROOTED TREES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHUNTING THE TROPICALLY INFLUENCED
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH COOL OVERNIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. IN ADDITION, AREAS
OF MVFR FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT
AND HAVE CODED THIS POTENTIAL INTO THE TAFS.
A BRIEF REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY 03Z TO 08Z, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SE OHIO, THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION, AND NORTH CENTRAL WV
AFTER 08Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS.
BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
18Z, WITH INCREASED IMPACTS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS
ANTICIPATED.
WINDS OVERALL WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H L M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H L H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR
IN FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, AND IN FOG
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-521-522-525-
526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...SL
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