692
FXUS61 KRLX 280819
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
419 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TUESDAY IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST THUNDERSTORM DAY
NEXT WEEK.
AS OF 415 AM SATURDAY...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DAMAGE OR KILL
UNPROTECTED EARLY EMERGENT VEGETATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA - GROWING SEASON IN EFFECT FOR NE KY AND PARTS OF THE S
COALFIELDS.
2.) ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, HARD FREEZE PRIMARILY IN VALLEYS
AND AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
3.) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS
AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY - BEST CHANCES TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE A BRISK
NORTHWEST FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD ADVECTION IS
FIRMLY UNDERWAY, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STEADILY DROPPING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN DECLARED OPEN. ANALYSIS
OF THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING REVEALS A DEEPLY DRY AIR MASS ABOVE A
SHALLOW POST- FRONTAL INVERSION, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PLUMMETING TO 0.22 INCHES. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
FROM THE WEST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX, BUT
LINGERING LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THIS HARD FREEZE WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY COLD
ADVECTION RATHER THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT WINDS AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER.
DURING THE DAY, DEEP MIXING INTO A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO CRASH. ANALYSIS
OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS DATA SUGGESTS DEW POINTS WILL MIX
DOWN INTO THE TEENS, YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE MINIMAL
RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE
THIS AFTERNOON AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO FURTHER
MITIGATE A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL ESTABLISH AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS INITIALLY. A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE AND VALLEY SPLIT WILL DEVELOP AS COLD AIR
DRAINAGE QUICKLY COOLS THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON THE RIDGES,
STABILIZING RIDGE TOP TEMPERATURES OR EVEN ALLOWING THEM TO
SLOWLY RISE BEFORE DAWN. TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COLD THE RIDGES CAN GET AND ANOTHER HARD
FREEZE IS LESS CERTAIN HERE, BUT THE VALLEYS SHOULD SEE IT
AGAIN. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCATIONS WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN DECLARED OPEN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS. COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AS RHS AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE
20S WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE TEENS. RECENT RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FARTHER
SOUTH WERE MINIMAL PRECIPITATION FELL MAY END UP NEEDING A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS REMARKABLE TEMPERATURE CLIMB, WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S BY MONDAY AND SURGING INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY. THIS REPRESENTS
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARMING, INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, PRIMARILY TO SOUTHEAST
OHIO. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH BY TUESDAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND DEEP MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING TEMPERATURES IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR
WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH DURING THE
DAY.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY MODEST, THEY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ON
TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE WINDY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY YIELDING SURFACE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A MORE ROBUST COLD AIR OUTBREAK ARRIVES TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500 AND 5000 FT
AGL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SCOUR OUT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHERLY
5-10KTS THROUGH DAY, BECOMING LIGHT THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF STRATOCUMULUS
AT CKB/EKN/BKW MAY VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING..
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/28/26
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT OCCURRING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-013-
024>026-033-034.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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