538  
FXUS61 KRLX 181842  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
242 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES  
PASSING THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER INCREASINGLY  
COMPROMISED SOILS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. IN FACT,  
PWATS ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE ARE AROUND 2" ALONG  
THE OH RIVER WITH MOST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 1.7" AND 2.1".  
 
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, SURFACE HEATING/INSOLATION HAS  
EFFECTIVELY ERODED MOST OF THE MORNING INHIBITION, ALLOWING  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.  
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH  
FLOOD THREAT WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS OR  
TRAIN FOR MULTIPLE HOURS IN ONE LOCATION. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL  
RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED 5" INCHES PER/HR WITH ONE HR TOTALS  
EXCEEDING 1-2". ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SUSTAINED TRAINING  
OR REPEATED STORMS COULD SEE LOCALIZED BULLSEYES OVER THE NEXT  
24HRS OF 2-5". THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
AS FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS, LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WET MICROBURSTS. ANY WIND THREAT SHOULD  
WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE ACTIVE AND HUMID PATTERN CONTINUES SATURDAY. ANOTHER  
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE FORCING WITHIN THE SAME  
TROPICAL AIRMASS. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. A SLIGHT  
INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED, WITH SHEAR VALUES  
POTENTIALLY REACHING 20-30 KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER-  
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND TRANSIENT SHORT LINE SEGMENTS,  
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,  
WARRANTING ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE  
PRIMARY THREAT, HOWEVER, REMAINS FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EFFICIENT  
RAINFALL PROCESSES IN THE MOISTURE-LADEN ENVIRONMENT. IT IS  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THE MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO ISSUE  
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY.  
 
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM  
THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG HEATING/INSOLATION WILL  
AGAIN GENERATE MODEST INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES  
BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN  
MODEST, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY  
SUPPORT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAMAGING  
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THREAT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A DRIER AND MORE STABLE  
AIRMASS ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN A MARKED DECREASE IN  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  
 
THE DOMINANT WEATHER STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM  
WILL BE BUILDING HEAT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO  
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTHWARD, PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE AND A  
STEADY WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES, STARTING IN THE MID  
80S ON MONDAY, ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING STICKY IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH  
THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 100  
DEGREES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 146 PM FRIDAY...  
ISO/SCT SHRA WITH ISO TSRA/+TSRA CONTINUING REGIONALLY.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING. UNDER HEAVIER SHOWER/STORMS BRIEF IFR FROM CIGS/VSBYS  
LIKELY. WITH THE STRONGER STORMS, GUSTS FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS  
IN EXCESS OF 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.  
 
WHILE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT, LINGERING  
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. CONTINUED  
WIDESPREAD MVFR FROM CIGS LIKELY, WITH LOCALIZED IFR FROM  
VSBYS/CIGS OVERNIGHT. FG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS  
TO TODAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPROVEMENTS FROM OVERNIGHT FOG MAY VARY  
FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING, LOCATIONS AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06  
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H L  
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M M H H H M L L M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H M L L  
 
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS, INTO NEXT WEEK. IFR OR WORSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE  
DURING THE OVERNIGHTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEAVY RAIN FALLS  
THE PREVIOUS DAY OR EVENING.  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-  
024>034-039-040-515>526.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-  
083>087.  
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JRM  
NEAR TERM...JRM  
SHORT TERM...JRM  
LONG TERM...JRM  
AVIATION...JRM  
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