713
FXUS61 KRLX 051425
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1025 AM THURSDAY...
REVAMPED SKY CONDITIONS AND POPS THIS MORNING WITH HI-RES
GUIDANCE THAT BEST REFLECTS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS FOR TODAY. MORNING LOW LEVEL STRATUS STRETCHING THROUGH
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS KEPT HOURLY TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED, SO ADJUSTED DOWN
ACCORDINGLY.
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
AFTER A QUIET WEATHER MORNING A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS TO OUR
WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS MID AFTERNOON. HIGH CAPE VALUES
REACHING ALMOST 3000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD UPDRAFTS
AND WITH PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES THIS WILL CAUSE FOR WATER
LOADING AND POSSIBLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WE ARE IN AN EXCESSIVE
RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND KY
COUNTIES. THIS COULD CAUSE DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS INSIDE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL IN THE SAME AFOREMENTION AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME ALTHOUGH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE SO MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TODAY TO
SUPPLY SOME FUEL FOR STORMS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM THURSDAY...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 RANGE, COULD SEE SOME STORMS
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 13K FEET.
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS
REMAIN UNSTABLE, SO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WITH A COLD FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF DRIER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 620 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA DRY AND MAINLY VFR.
THERE IS A LITTLE HAZE EXPECTED TODAY BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT
SITES TOO MUCH EXCEPT FOR A FEW SITES HOVERING AROUND MVFR WITH
HZ. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON OPENING UP VFR FOR
THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS TO OUR WEST WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AREA AND ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PROMOTE RESTRICTIONS TO VIS, BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY VFR, HOWEVER SOME MVFR CIGS MAY GET INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT BKW/EKN (POSSIBLY CKB)
AND SOUTHEAST OHIO (PKB) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
END MVFR WITH 030FT CIGS OR SLIGHTLY LESS WILL BE THE LIKELY
CULPRIT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY WITH ISOLATED AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BY LATE THURSDAY, BRIEF IFR UNDER SHOWER OR STORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT
CAUSE TOO MANY RESTRICTIONS TO THE SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ
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