265
FXUS61 KRLX 132321
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z/715PM AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS IN CONTINUITY WITH THE
PRIOR PACKAGE. NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
2) BEYOND SUNDAY, A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL UNFOLD TO BEGIN THE
NEW WORK WEEK. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HOWEVER, THIS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LACK THE ROBUST LEVELS OF CAPE THAT WAS
SEEN WITH RECENT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OVER THE PAST WEEK. MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTING 600-800 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
GROWTH. IN ADDITION, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT 30-35
KTS TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE REGION IN
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR NOW. A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN PLACED EAST OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ROBUST.
IN ADDITION TO A SEVERE THREAT THERE WILL ALSO BE A MARGINAL
FLOODING THREAT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 1.80 TO 2.00
INCHES, AND ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY HAVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY, BRINGING A
SEVERAL-DAY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A
POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BRING LOWER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED IN A 15% RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AS A DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ROBUST SHEAR (35-45 KTS) AND CAPE (1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG MLCAPE)
ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP
AT KEKN, BUT INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT PREVENT
THE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. EXPECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINALS MOST OF SUNDAY, AND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AND PRODUCE VARIABLE, GUSTY WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT SOME ADDITIONAL SITES. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/14/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JRM/26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page