093
FXUS61 KRLX 070933
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
433 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE ONLY THING NEW IS THAT
BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE BACK DOWN TO
NEAR NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND AFTER A STOUT WARMING TREND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH
5 OUT OF 6 CLIMATE SITES FORECAST TO TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
2. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT WE
CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL.
3. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DUE TO PREVIOUS FALLEN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY RECEIVING MORE RAINFALL FROM HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
4. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO TIMING OF THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY WILL PROMOTE RECORD BREAKING WARMTH AMID A VERY
MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH NO IMPACTS WILL RESULT IN
THIS WARMING TREND THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING RECORDS IS OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL IMPORTANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTION COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH DECENT
UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND MOIST PROFILES, WINDS COULD BE PULLED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE UNDER HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY, THEREFORE DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. ONE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TORNADOES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AND
HELICITY COULD PROMOTE A FEW SPIN UPS AS THE FRONT SWIFTLY MOVES
THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING LIKELY UNDER HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS IS THE REGION THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL IN THE
PREVIOUS HYDRO EVENT AND WHERE FLOODING HAS BEEN ONGOING EVEN UP
TO THIS POINT IN TIME. WHILE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LOW END QPF AMOUNTS AND SINCE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THERE STILL IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS WHO MAY BE HIT REPEATEDLY BY HEAVY SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A SYSTEM FORECAST TO ORIGINATE OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY,
THE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH DUE TO THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLATED FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE OTHER SEVERE THREATS. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS TIME GOES BY.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OUTSIDE DENSE FOG AT EKN THROUGH THE MORNING, VFR SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE SITES FOR THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WOULD ONLY TEMPORARILY PRODUCE INSTANCES OF POSSIBLE IFR UNDER
A HEAVY SHOWER. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY NIGHTFALL, SOME
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY
SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CLEARING OUT WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY TODAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TAKING PLACE
SUNDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. IF WINDS RELAX SOME THERE
COULD BE LLWS APPARENT AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE THIS MORNING COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ELEVATED CONVECTION
SATURDAY MORNING COULD AFFECT A FEW TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 03/07/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF, BUT SIGNIFICANT IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
MULTIPLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET ON FRIDAY.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHARLESTON.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT HUNTINGTON.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS SET AT BECKLEY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 75 DEGREES SET IN 1910.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS SET AT PARKERSBURG.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN 1973.
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
TODAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGHS
-------------------------
| SATURDAY, 3/7 |
-------------------------
CRW | 82 / 81 (2009) |
HTS | 81 / 82 (1983) |
CKB | 78 / 77 (2009) |
PKB | 78 / 80 (2009) |
BKW | 76 / 74 (2009) |
EKN | 78 / 76 (2009) |
-------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
CLIMATE...GW
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