275
FXUS61 KRLX 102355
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AS A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
ANOTHER SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON FILLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE UNDERWAY TODAY AMID HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOCAL
STATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPICT A DEW POINT SPREAD
WITHIN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVING BEEN BREACHED. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT, BEING THE MOST BOUNTIFUL ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE HAS A
DECENT VANTAGE POINT OF UPWARD DEVELOPMENT OFF TO THE WEST IN
THE KANAWHA VALLEY AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STORMS TODAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING, AND SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHTNING, LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION TODAY,
WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK STAYING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
AFTER SHOWERS AND STORMS SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING, EXCESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL SERVE UP ANOTHER
STRONG SIGNATURE FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY,
WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS AMID HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PROPEL INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING HUMIDITY, DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FLOURISH UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDING TRENDS PORTRAY CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BECOMING EXCEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
WITH CUMULUS FIELDS QUICKLY BLOSSOMING AND GROWING INTO
CONVECTIVE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS COULD GROW
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...
THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ISOLATED POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. H5 RIDGING PARKED OVER THE WESTERN
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL SUPPLY ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO
SUPPORT MORE DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 754 PM THURSDAY...
POST-SUNSET, LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH,
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND SURFACE DEWPOINT HOLDING IN THE
UPPER 60S, CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY DENSE FOG, RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z.
ANY LINGERING FOG FROM OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
FUEL DIURNAL CONVECTION BY MID-MORNING, AROUND 15Z. WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO, AT MOST WIDELY SCATTERED.
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE BRIEF BUT RAPID
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS, ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A STORM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WANE AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET 00Z
SATURDAY.
ALL TERMINALS HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF BEING
IMPACTED BY A PASSING HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM, WARRANTING TEMPO
GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN NEXT TAFS
ISSUANCES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY
VARY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. IFR FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ
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