185
FXUS61 KRLX 211021
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
521 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH AND
WEST WHERE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A SYSTEM BRINGS COLDER WEATHER AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- 2) ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE WITH A COUPLE OF
MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN
BEGINS TRAVELING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH RAIN, OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW, TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH
USHERS IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES OF FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-79 AND US-119 CORRIDORS, WITH AT
LEAST A 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SIX INCHES OR MORE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS ARE POISED TO RECEIVE AROUND TWO INCHES OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATION. IN ADDITION TO SNOW, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ADDING GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO POTENTIAL TRAVEL CONCERNS.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH WHERE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD WIND DOWN ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVE WITH A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY, AND THAT A SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SECOND SYSTEM.
MILD TEMPERATURES PRESENT DURING THIS TIME SHOULD MAINLY SUPPORT
RAIN, THOUGH A WINTRY MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. AN INITIAL MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW,
WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH MOST TERMINALS
BY EARLY SUNDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIME OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 02/21/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR WVZ015-016-018-025>032-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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