698
FXUS61 KRLX 110800
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANGED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND PASSING
FRONT TONIGHT TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. POPS WERE
INCREASED IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FROM TODAY TO THURSDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN PLACE TO COVER THIS HAZARD.
2.) ROBUST SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FROM A MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
UPSLOPE SNOW COULD FETCH A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGES AND THEN FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY GLAZE
THE SAME AREA WITH A COATING OF ICE ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE CREATING LOW IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE AREAS
OF SOUTHEAST WEBSTER, NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS, NORTHWEST RANDOLPH
AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 3AM
TODAY UNTIL 3PM.
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER IS
EXPECTED WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE PEAKS AND RIDGES AS PREVIOUSLY STATED.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40MPH.
THIS COULD CAUSE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND THE HAZARDS COULD
CAUSE IMPACTS ON THE MORNING COMMUTE, POSSIBLY THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL BUT THE PROBABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW ON CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION JUST IN CASE WHILE TRAVELING. THE
LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE
OBTAINED BY CALLING 511 OR BY ACCESSING THE ONLINE TRAFFIC AND
ROADWAY PORTAL FOR WV.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IN MODELS ARE INCREASING ON BRINGING IN A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE AREA BY END OF WEEK AND FOR THE GREATER
PART OF THE WEEKEND. QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
AMID THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL MAKE WAY TO A ROBUST
SYSTEM OUT FOR THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH MODELS HAVE ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SPLITTING OFF AND RIDING UP ALONG OUR
MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL HEAD STRAIGHT EAST OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ADD PLENTY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND ALONG WITH THE MELTED SNOW PACK GROUNDS WHICH SHOULD BE
SATURATED STILL BY THEN TO POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. ESPECIALLY FOR LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE
AREAS IN OUR CWA.
THIS AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SPLITTING OFF WILL
TAKE A MILLER B TYPE TRACK FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE AN ALL RAIN REGIME ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, BUT SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAYTIME A WINTRY MIX IS MORE LIKELY
HINDERING SNOW AMOUNT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. ON THE BACKSIDE,
THERE COULD BE LOWER STRATUS BUT SHOULD ONLY GET INTO THE
EASTERN SITES AS SOME INSTANCES OF IFR. THE OTHER SITES WILL
ENDURE MVFR CIGS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST TO A MORE NORTHWEST
COMPONENT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY THIS AFTERNOON ELEVATED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR WIND GUSTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW STRATUS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 02/11/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M M H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SNOW SHOWERS IN/NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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