149
FXUS61 KRLX 301847
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MORE
POTENT SYSTEM THAT WILL RING IN THE NEW YEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SAILS BY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA.
* A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL RING
IN THE NEW YEAR AND YIELD HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS AND LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE LOWLANDS.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
HOISTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF
THIS NOTION, WITH CLEARING SKIES NOW EXTENDING INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LITTLE
TO NONE, SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW RETURNS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SAILS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT PROJECTIONS KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS PASSING WAVE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
THE I-64 CORRIDOR, AMOUNTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OUR
LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD PICK UP AN
ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
VERY LITTLE REPRIEVE WILL BE OBSERVED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS
THE EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SNOW KEEP ON ROLLING IN FROM THE NORTH. A
MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD IS SET TO BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TO THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS FOR THE START OF THE
NEW YEAR. THE ONSET OF SNOW WILL BEGIN AT THE CONCLUDING HOURS
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, SO HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES/WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* THE NEW YEAR OPENS UP WITH A WINTER STORM THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS
AND LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE EVENING OF NEW YEARS EVE IS SET TO BRING THE RETURN OF MORE
SNOW AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLIER IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC FRONT MOVING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. DECENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SLIDING DOWN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND WILL
IMPOSE THE BEST TIMEFRAME TO ACHIEVE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, BUT AT A LESSER
INTENSITY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS NEW YEARS EVENT IS SET TO BRING 4 TO 8
INCHES TO THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARING 10 TO POSSIBLY 12 INCHES ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. THE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS WILL ENCOMPASS OUR COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN ZONES THAT
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING THESE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS. FOR THE LOWLANDS, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE CLOSER TO
BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES AS WE RING IN THE NEW YEAR. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE HOISTED FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS, THROUGH
THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA, AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS.
ELSEWHERE, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY, LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THESE
LOCATIONS WILL FALL OUTSIDE THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE WINTER
STORM.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WRAP UP AFTER MIDDAY
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL
PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, WITH
WIND CHILLS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING DOWN BELOW ZERO IN THE
MIDST OF ONGOING GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...
DRY WEATHER STRETCHES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS FORECAST
TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH A DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL STEER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN VA COALFIELDS, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE OVERALL DRY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS UNDER THE GUISE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY THE
ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD THEREFORE SET
UP FOR A QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE REGION. A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND TRANSPIRES THROUGH THE PERIOD, RETURNING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MIDST OF LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. IFR THRESHOLD ARE MOST DUE TO BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS, WHILE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE MVFR CEILINGS TO OOZE INTO OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON WEDNESDAY ONCE THAT
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA, BUT WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY A
MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE SHORTLY AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL FESTER INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD IMPOSE 15 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS AT MOST
TERMINALS DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MOUNTAIN
TURBULENCE AND LLWS CONCERNS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/VFR CATEGORY CHANGES WITH STRATOCU
COULD VARY. IFR IS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AT EKN AND
PERHAPS EVEN CKB AND BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-015>020-026>031-034-515>521-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR WVZ032-039-040-522-523-525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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