831
FXUS61 KRLX 250147
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
947 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY THE
RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 946 PM FRIDAY...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVERHEAD TODAY WILL ENCOURAGE DRY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY STRETCH INTO
THE 40S AND 50S, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA THAT
PLATEAU AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN TUMBLE DOWN TO SUB-FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT AND RESULT IN
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, BUT AS OF THIS MORNING THE GROWING
SEASON HAS NOW CONCLUDED FOR THE CHARLESTON, WV FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AROUND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT WARM UP IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE LOWLAND SPOTS RISING INTO THE
LOW 60S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AS A
DISTURBANCE ASCENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY TREKS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL RETAIN A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE SHIFTING GEARS TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL FIRST ARRIVE INTO OUR COALFIELDS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERMEATE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL SET FORTH THE RETURN OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QPF VALUES WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STEADY STREAM OF
LIGHT RAIN EVEN BEYOND THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COULD BE
BENEFICIAL BY PUTTING A SMALL DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT WHILE
ALSO MITIGATING CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER STRETCHES INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AMID
A SLEW OF PASSING DISTURBANCES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, A NEW SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AIMS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK,
HOWEVER CONSENSUS REMAINS HAZY ON DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST. CENTRAL GUIDANCE BROADBRUSHED THE AREA WITH A 50/50
CHANCE FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD IN REGARDS TO POPS, AND SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE THAT WITH THIS PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME MUCH COOLER IN THE MIDST OF THE ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND
OVERCAST SKIES, WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS STRUGGLING
TO GET ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION TO TRANSPIRE AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 728 PM FRIDAY...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A CLEAN ZONAL FLOW AT
H500, PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND DERIVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TWO FEATURES. THIS DRY AIR AND EXPECTED
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPRESS DENSE FOG
FORMATION AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AS NBM SUGGESTS AT PKB, CKB AND
EKN. FROST OF FREEZE IS MORE FAVOR, NEGATING DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ALLOWED ONE HOUR OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EKN AND PKB
FROM 12-13Z EXPECTING FOR A "MORNING SURPRISE" EFFECT UNDER
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVECT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY MORNING MAY OR
MAY NOT AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 10/25/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05/ARJ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ARJ
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