041
FXUS61 KRLX 011629
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1229 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2.) HIGH PRESSURE THEN PROVIDES DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER THE LAST DAY OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA A COLD FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
NOT BE UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN WILL PROCEED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS WHICH SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE ALTHOUGH WORSE CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LACK OF MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LIMITED SO JUST THE GENERAL RUN OF
THE MILL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG. WITH
SUFFICIENT DCAPE AND PWAT VALUES THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOW
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS IF HIT REPEATEDLY BY HEAVY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER SINCE WE
HAVE BEEN DRY AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WILL BE HIGH THE RISK
WOULD BE JUST ACROSS THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THAT ARE
BASICALLY FLOOD PRONE OR KNOWN NUISANCE AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF THE
AREA BUT MEANDER TO OUR SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED SO
JUST THINKING GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ISSUES ACROSS LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
IN KNOW NUISANCE AREAS WHO ARE HIT REPEATEDLY.
THE MEANDERING SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN HAVE
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LINE AND UP INTO
OUR PART OF THE AREA, HOWEVER SHOULD STAY IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES EVEN
FURTHER TO THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER IN PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS IN THE CWA, ESPECIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BE PUSHED OUT
BY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS BROUGHT IN BY A PARENT LOW
PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND PROVIDED LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
MUCH DRIER AND MAINTAIN THE COOLER WEATHER FOR THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER EXITING TOWARD THE SOUTH BY MONDAY,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTS IN
COLD AIR WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW SEASONABLE
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF INSTANCES
OF MVFR OR WORSE CONDITONS UNDER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
WITH STRONG SURFACE FLOW NO FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO THE AREA MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
TO MVFR OR WORSE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THESE
LOW CIGS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
HUNG UP TOWARD OUR SOUTH PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF IFR FRIDAY. IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WV
AND SOUTHWESTERN VA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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