928
FXUS61 KRLX 202356
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD FRONT EXITED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING,
USHERING IN DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF WV FROM SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH NEXT SYSTEM
HAVE INCREASED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS A NEW SYSTEM PASSES ON SUNDAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONG SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
- 2) THE INTERACTION OF TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE COLDER
TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD SNOW, AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 4 TO 12
INCHES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER. HOWEVER, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40
MPH, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OF
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE INTERACTION OF TWO DISTINCT WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW, FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. FIRST, A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA, EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING. CONCURRENTLY, A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND WV ON SUNDAY.
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INITIATE PRECIPITATION (LIKELY
STARTING AS RAIN), A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP INTO
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE, DRIVING SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INTO OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING FOUR OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 80% ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER, THE EXPECTED TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY
EVENING RANGES FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS,
DROPPING TO 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, AND SETTLING
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR CENTRAL WV AND THE KANAWHA METRO AREA.
THESE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL POSE A MODERATE THREAT FOR
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD AND MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
SKC AND FEW CLOUDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AT
LEAST ~06Z. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON DURING
THIS TIME. AFTER ~06Z, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (BETWEEN 6
AND 10 KNOTS) FOR MOST SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN.
VFR EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCT TO
BKN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CONTINUE TAPERING OFF DURING
THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND GUSTS WILL FLUCTUATE THIS EVENING AND
MAY BE HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED BEFORE DECREASING OFF LATER
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030-032-039-040-515>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARJ
AVIATION...LTC
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