455
FXUS61 KRLX 021929
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. DRY/COLD ON SUNDAY. A BROAD CANADIAN LOW WILL LIKELY EJECT
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
MODELS SHOW H850 SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 50-60 KNOTS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECTING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UNDER WAA, THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DECOUPLE, KEEPING STRONG
WINDS ALOFT, AND SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT SUBSIDE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS THE REST OF SATURDAY.
THE EXPECTED WAA WILL PROVIDE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE MID 30S
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED BY MID
MORNING, PERHAPS REACHING THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
RANGING INTO THE LOWER 40S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THEN, CAA BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE DRY
BUT COLD WEATHER. SUNDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID
20'S ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NOT
REACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM AND INSTEAD WILL JUST CLIMB TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WHICH IS FAIRLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE. WEAK FLOW WILL RESIDE IN THE LOWLANDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DECREASES, HOWEVER SOME MODEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, AROUND 3000FT OR GREATER, UNTIL MID TO
LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD MORNING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DOMINATES WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
1 OR 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME REALIZED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON STARTING OUT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY
EVENING, SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A REAL POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM KICKS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND DRIVES
EASTWARD SPREADING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AREAWIDE.
ITS PARENT UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY
AND SETUP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL BE DRIVEN INTO OUR REGION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE, ONLY RAIN WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK WITH CLOUDY, GLOOMY AND WET
DAYS. THOUGH SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS ON LOCATION AND TIMING FROM
THE LONG RANGE MODELS MAKES FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH HOW MUCH
LONGER THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LAST.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY POSSIBLY
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND SUGGESTED BY ITS HIGH CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. ACCEPTED CENTRAL GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE SLIGHT INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MODELS, SUCH AS THE GFS HAS
BREAKS IN DISTURBANCES, BUT THE EURO AND CANADIAN DO NOT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING IN PLENTY OF MOIST AND WARM AIR WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHEN
CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN WHEN COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1216 PM FRIDAY...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL FROM AN UPPER DECK ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS STAYING VFR. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN,
AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT, TO PRODUCE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS INTO 12Z SATURDAY. THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY, SPREADING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW STRONG SOUTHWEST H850 WINDS ABOUT 60 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-50 KNOTS AT 2KFT
DEVELOPING BY 06Z TONIGHT. THESE WINDS POSE A THREAT FOR LLWS
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AS SHOWN BY THE NBM AND NAM MODELS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, CODED LLWS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY.
WINDS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THEY TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ARJ
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