584
FXUS61 KRLX 202225
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
LOWERED TDS/RH A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT DRIER
CONDITIONS UNTIL BETTER RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. INCREASED
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS MIDDLE 80S MORE LIKELY. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS UPPER 80S POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. WE REMAIN IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- 2) ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
PORTIONS OF NE KY, SE OH, WV IN A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING IS SUB SEVERE, BUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THERE COULD BE A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY THREAT
IS MINIMAL. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE LIKELY BASED ON HIGH RES CAM
SOLUTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
RATHER LOW AS INSTABILITY IS LARGELY ABSENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE MORE ROBUST, WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK SE OH AND A
MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF NE KY AND WESTERN WV ALONG THE OH
RIVER. THE MAIN THREATS AS OF NOW APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL HAIL
AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. SOME EARLY CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
STORMS COULD CONGEAL INTO A LINE, THUS INCREASING THE WIND
THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT COULD CAUSE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, SOME MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
COULD FORM, MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS ALONG
THE FRONT COULD VARY. CLOUD DECK LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING COULD BE LOWER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRM
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page