074  
FXUS61 KRLX 230010  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
810 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSS TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES  
SATURDAY. WARM FRONT BRUSHES OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH RAIN;  
DRY ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH RAIN FOR ALL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 810 PM FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE AREA MOSTLY ENSHROUDED IN STRATOCU  
BENEATH INVERSION.  
 
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING FOR THE PERIOD.  
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY, WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED  
BENEATH INVERSION. STILL LOOKING AT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR  
DRIZZLE AS SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
ON SATURDAY, GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE HOLD AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS  
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS, AND  
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE TEENS MAY  
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING. CLOUDS QUICKLY  
INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH  
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM, KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DIPPING TOO  
MUCH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT  
THE SURFACE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND SHOULD MITIGATE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING  
TOO MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY  
FOR PATCHY FROST IF TEMPERATURES DIP COLD ENOUGH ALONG THE  
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE IN  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
ON SUNDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY  
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST VIRGINIA.  
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALONG ZONAL FLOW  
AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE  
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG SOUTHEAST OHIO AND  
NORTH/NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE  
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE WARMER  
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WHERE DRIER  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. 50S TO 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY, PUSHING OUT THE  
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA AND LEADING TO  
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST  
AS WELL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, AIDING WITH THESE  
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. CHANCES SHOULD  
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LINGERING  
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY  
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  
 
THE DRY BREAK ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO  
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A CUT OFF LOW AT THE UPPER  
LEVELS ALSO WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
WEEK. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN AND POTENTIALLY  
LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE,  
FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN  
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. PATCHY FROST MAY  
BE A POSSIBILITY ON THE CHILLIER NIGHTS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE  
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 810 PM FRIDAY...  
 
AREA REMAINS MOSTLY ENSHROUDED IN STRATOCU THAT WILL FILL IN  
FURTHER TONIGHT, AND LOWER. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE  
NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND, IN NORTHERN WV, OUT  
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL, OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING. HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE OBSCURED. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR  
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO TAKE VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES,  
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSES NORTHERN WV.  
 
THE IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY  
MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP, YIELDING VFR SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS 14Z HTS, WITH  
IMPROVEMENT WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING PKB, CRW AND  
BKW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND EKN LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CKB  
PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.  
 
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT  
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS WITH  
GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN WV PKB CKB AND EKN  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS COULD FLUCTUATE NEAR THE IFR/MVFR  
THRESHOLD OF 1000 FEET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING OF  
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY DIFFER FROM  
FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M H H H H H  
 
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/CG  
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL  
SHORT TERM...CG  
LONG TERM...CG  
AVIATION...TRM  
 
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