616
FXUS61 KRLX 131849
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR
FRIDAY, A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING
THE DAY WARRANTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH BACK INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
CURVATURE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES EVOLVING OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF
THE BOUNDARY AS STORMS MARCH EASTWARD AND COULD BRING SEVERE
WEATHER AND MORE FLASH FLOODING AT TIMES ON FRIDAY.
2.) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FORECAST REMAINS STRONGLY TIED TO RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO SERVE UP
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WITH A SLEW OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS HAS LUCKED OUT THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS THE CURVATURE IN THE BOUNDARY HAS CAUSED
STORMS TO TRAVEL MOSTLY THROUGH KENTUCKY SOUTHWARD, AND ONLY
JUST SKIRTING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH, PLANTING THE FORECAST
AREA BACK INTO THE CORRIDOR OF SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
A WIDE ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
STORMS REMAINS AT PLAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME DRIVING STORMS INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY, WHILE OTHERS
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTY, ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PERIOD FOR INCREASED POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEYOND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TIMEFRAME. OPTED TO THEREFORE EXTEND THE WATCH INTO FRIDAY
EVENING TO ENCAPSULATE MORE OF THE POTENTIAL DAYTIME ACTIVITY
MEANDERING OVER THE AREA. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS THAT HAVE BEEN
ACCOMPANYING STORMS THIS WEEK COULD EXACERBATE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS OUR BASINS, DESPITE HAVING HAD A DAY OR TWO TO
RECOVER FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THE WATCH
MAY BE WARRANTED FOLLOWING FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE CYCLES AND
MONITORING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO TEETER TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE
STATE THAN WHAT PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVEYED. WHILE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST FORCES OUR STALLED
BOUNDARY TO SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAINS FEASIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT MAY
STILL FESTER. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BRINGS
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AND
COULD ALSO IMPOSE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK IN THE EVENT THE
BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE NORMAL,
EXCEPT A BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RELATIVELY PLEASANT FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY HAS FOUND ITSELF IN THIS WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE CATALYST BEHIND DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF OUR AIRSPACE CURRENTLY, BUT
IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT THE ORIENTATION OF STORM COVERAGE BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
BRINGING THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR TYPICAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. TIMING OUT AND DETERMINING THE MAGNITUDE OF STORMS
REACHING TAF SITES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD REMAINS
LIMITED, SO OPTED TO USE PROB30 GROUPS TO DISTINGUISH WHEN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE RAMPING BACK UP COME FRIDAY
MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE DICTATED BY
UPSTREAM STORMS AND THEIR RESULTANT ANVIL BLOW OFF. IF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKET THE REGION, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME DIFFICULT TO OCCUR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT VERY LOW FOR CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND TIMING COULD
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN DIRECT THUNDERSTORM HITS OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHERE OVERNIGHT
CLEARING OCCURS OVER WET GROUND, PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
MAY BRING EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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