576
FXUS61 KRLX 132323
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
623 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN QPF ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTH WV AND SE OH.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN SUNDAY. AMOUNTS WILL
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, TAPERING TO A TRACE TO A
TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF THE METRO VALLEY. BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN/WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING IN NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING
AND/OR COLD AIR TRAPPED IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
2.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY IN THE LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS WELL SOUTH THE OF THE REGION. THIS
LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICK WITH ONLY A SHORT
PERIOD OF RAINFALL. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE A WIDESPREAD 0.5" TO 1.0" OF RAIN COULD
FALL. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF WV/NE KY AND SE OH, 0.2" TO
0.5" COULD FALL WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WV.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX IN THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING AND COLDER TRAPPED SURFACE AIR
IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, TIMING
WOULD BE VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANY
WINTER PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE WILL MONITOR IF TRENDS SUPPORT MORE
COVERAGE OR A LONGER DURATION OF WINTRY PRECIP LEADING TO
IMPACTS.
HYDROLOGICALLY, SOILS REMAIN SOMEWHAT SOGGY FROM RECENT
SNOWMELT. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE COALFIELDS COULD GENERATE
ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
WHERE ICE IS STILL CLOGGING/PARTIALLY CLOGGING SMALLER CULVERTS.
MOSTLY OPEN CHANNELS IN THE SOUTH AND LOW STREAMFLOWS IN THE
NORTH MITIGATES BUT DOESN'T ZERO OUT THE RISK OF ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY COULD CHALLENGE THE
70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIMITATIONS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY,
THOUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN REMAIN LIGHT WITH A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE COULD BE LOWER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS (BKW/HTS/CRW) IN RAIN AND LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRM
AVIATION...20
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