478
FXUS61 KRLX 311848
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR WEDNESDAY, THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW EXTENSIVE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
BE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO THE AREA,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AMID A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT
TRANSPORTS WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA.
A FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND, IS PROJECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND THEN
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT SHOULD FACILITATE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STRONGER,
POSSIBLY SEVERE, STORMS DURING THE DAY.
A SYSTEM PUSHES THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY, THEN LEAVES ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRANDED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS,
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA AS IT CROSSES ON SUNDAY. MUCH
COLDER AIR THEN SWEEPS INTO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT,
AND SENDS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO BE COLD,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS CEILINGS LOWER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH GUSTS MAY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. EXTENT OF
LLWS TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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