275  
FXUS61 KRLX 102355  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
755 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AS A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN  
PLACE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...  
 
ANOTHER SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON FILLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE UNDERWAY TODAY AMID HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOCAL  
STATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPICT A DEW POINT SPREAD  
WITHIN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES  
HAVING BEEN BREACHED. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT, BEING THE MOST BOUNTIFUL ALONG  
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE HAS A  
DECENT VANTAGE POINT OF UPWARD DEVELOPMENT OFF TO THE WEST IN  
THE KANAWHA VALLEY AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. STORMS TODAY  
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING, AND SHOULD QUICKLY  
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHTNING, LOCALLY DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION TODAY,  
WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK STAYING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST  
AREA.  
 
AFTER SHOWERS AND STORMS SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING, EXCESSIVE LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL SERVE UP ANOTHER  
STRONG SIGNATURE FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY,  
WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS AMID HOT AND MUGGY  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...  
 
A CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PROPEL INTO THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH WARMING  
TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING HUMIDITY, DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FLOURISH UNDER THESE  
CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDING TRENDS PORTRAY CONVECTIVE  
TEMPERATURES BECOMING EXCEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS,  
WITH CUMULUS FIELDS QUICKLY BLOSSOMING AND GROWING INTO  
CONVECTIVE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE  
WEATHER WILL BE CENTERED OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO A  
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT A FEW ROGUE STORMS COULD GROW  
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...  
 
THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ISOLATED POTENTIAL  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS  
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. H5 RIDGING PARKED OVER THE WESTERN  
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL SUPPLY ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO  
SUPPORT MORE DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY. HOT AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 754 PM THURSDAY...  
 
POST-SUNSET, LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH,  
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT TO CALM  
WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND SURFACE DEWPOINT HOLDING IN THE  
UPPER 60S, CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG  
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY DENSE FOG, RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND  
OTHER FOG-PRONE LOCATIONS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED  
AFTER 06Z.  
 
ANY LINGERING FOG FROM OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE  
BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR  
ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL  
FUEL DIURNAL CONVECTION BY MID-MORNING, AROUND 15Z. WITHOUT  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO, AT MOST WIDELY SCATTERED.  
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE BRIEF BUT RAPID  
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS, ALONG  
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A STORM.  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WANE AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET 00Z  
SATURDAY.  
 
ALL TERMINALS HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF BEING  
IMPACTED BY A PASSING HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM, WARRANTING TEMPO  
GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR  
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN NEXT TAFS  
ISSUANCES.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY  
VARY OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION MAY VARY  
FROM THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L  
 
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...  
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,  
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. IFR FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MEK  
NEAR TERM...MEK  
SHORT TERM...MEK  
LONG TERM...MEK  
AVIATION...ARJ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page