381
FXUS61 KRLX 101811
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REDUCED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SLIGHTLY WITH WEAKER
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALOFT. ADDED DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
FOR BANDED PRECIPITATION NEAR CORE OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPATIALLY LIMITED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE LEE
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAVORED RIDGETOPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY, WITH A WIND ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT.
2.) RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING, HEAVIEST ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS.
3.) A NARROW WINDOW FOR SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS COULD SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE
BASED ROTATING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING BRIEF LOW END
TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, ESTABLISHING A
40-55KT LOW-LEVEL JET (A DECREASE FROM THE NEAR 70KT FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY). FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE A NARROW STABLE
LAYER THAT WILL CONTAIN MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM, WITH ONLY A
MODEST ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SIGNAL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE JET COULD STILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
IN SPOTS. GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON HIGHER RIDGETOPS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS. DID REMOVE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE WIND ADVISORY GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST MOMENTUM ALOFT.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, GUSTS OF 15 TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY SATURATES WITH PRECIPITATION AND ALLOWS
LIMITED MIXING OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. HIGH-ROOTED
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ATOP THE STABLE LAYER COULD
OCCASIONALLY MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH A
SUBSTANTIAL SATURATED LAYER BENEATH ANY UPDRAFTS SHOULD LIMIT
THIS POTENTIAL. WINDS SHOULD TAPER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RATES WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME,
SUPPORTED BY MODEST BUT DEEP INSTABILITY AND DEEP WARM-CLOUD
DEPTHS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FOCUS ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN VIA UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING IN OUTER
BANDS BANDED PRECIPITATION. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN STRONG DOWNSLOPE REGIONS, WHILE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT BANDING OR UPSLOPE. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE DRY, AND SOILS SHOULD ABSORB THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PRIMARILY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITHOUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES. THE
COMBINATION OF A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND RELATIVELY CALM WEATHER
HAS LIKELY LEFT A DECENT NUMBER OF WEAKENED TREES READY TO FALL
WITHOUT MUCH PROVOCATION. RAIN LOADING COUPLED WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME TREE FALL, EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
WIND GUSTS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING CENTERS ON ANY SLOW-
MOVING BANDED CONVECTION NEARER THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CORE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE RATES COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IN A VERY LOCALIZED FASHION AND LINGER OVER ISOLATED SPOTS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. A SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS HAS
APPEARED IN RECENT CAMS, THOUGH PLACEMENT REMAINS INCONSISTENT
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. A SHORT-FUSED,
NARROWLY FOCUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED LATE
OVERNIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, BUT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE IS TOO LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH
LOW PLACEMENT AND ANTECEDENT RAINFALL TOTALS. OUTSIDE THIS
CORRIDOR, ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY NUISANCE HIGH WATER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RATES COINCIDE WITH A NARROW HOLLOW, POOR
DRAINAGE, OR LEAF-CLOGGED DRAINS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BRIEFLY, WITH ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A NARROW TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR DECENT SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE REMNANT LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION, WHERE A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MANIFEST.
NEAR SURFACE-BASED PARCEL ASCENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN A MIXED-
LAYER ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO ROTATING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL CURVATURE BENEATH
ANY OF THESE CORES AND COULDN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN THE NARROW WINDOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR AND DEPENDENCE
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION (OF
WHICH THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD IN THE CAMS), BUT THE SETUP
CONTINUES WARRANT MONITORING. AT THIS TIME SPC MAINTAINS ONLY A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDER.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OF
ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT VCTS OR TSRA AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS, EXCEPT MUCH HIGHER GUSTS IN
DOWNSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS (BKW, EKN, AND POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO
CRW). A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK
TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND COVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LLWS EXPECTED WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
UNMIXED. CEILINGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENS OVERNIGHT, REACHING 008-015 BY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. WINDS/LLWS COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON LEVEL OF
DECOUPLING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ033-034-515>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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