552
FXUS61 KRLX 131723
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
IF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HANG AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED, WINDS
MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY-LEVEL POTENTIAL DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING AND TURBULENT MIXING. THIS IS MAINLY A CONCERN OVER
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA, WHERE CLOUDS WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO
BREAK UP. ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO,
THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE FOR WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY AND
WARNING LEVEL POTENTIAL.
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RHS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A VERY WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE HIGHER RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY
TONIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL SWING A LOT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE, SUNDAY WILL BE WARM, AND A WINTER LIKE
CHILL WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING
CREATES TURBULENT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH IN THE ADVISORY LOCATIONS. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO. IN THESE AREAS, WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH ARE OCCASIONALLY
POSSIBLE TODAY.
THERE IS ONE POINT WORTH MENTIONING: IF THE CLOUD COVER STICKS
AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED, WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST. MORE CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF TURBULENT MIXING,
WHICH WOULD PREVENT THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE LOCATION WHERE THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA, WHERE CLOUDS MAY TAKE LONGER TO
DISSIPATE. WE WILL WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO
THE STRONG WINDS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD RELAXES. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS
COULD CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S.
MORE OF THE SAME TYPE OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AREAWIDE. OUR AREA
WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY WITH A SURGE OF WARM
AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL START FAIRLY MILD ON MONDAY, REACHING THE LOWER
60S FOR THE START OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A STEEP TUMBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT IN A POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.
A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEK AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN OUT WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY RISE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD
AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE. LITTLE
OR NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IF THERE IS ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION, IT WOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND ON GRASS. QPF FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 0.50
TO 1.00 INCH AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG TODAY, GUSTING TO 50 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
00Z. AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL DIMINISH, BUT
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG. THEREFORE, EXPECT 30-50 KTS OF
LLWS FROM 00Z TO 09Z SATURDAY.
THE REST OF SATURDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHTER WINDS OUT OF THE WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY VARY TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>032-039-040-515>522-524-525.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-076-
083>087.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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