364
FXUS61 KRLX 250822
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED AN SPS THIS MORNING FOR FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, HAVE TRENDED SATURDAY MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COLDER TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL MIXING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR CYCLE. A 12Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATE WAS ALSO ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT FLOW, ALLOWING FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. VALLEY FOG IS MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WV WHERE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER YESTERDAY HELPED TO TRAP IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PRIOR TO SUNSET. FURTHER NORTHEAST, DRY ADVECTION HAS GREATLY
LIMITED FOG COVERAGE TO MAINLY JUST TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY STEAM
FOG VIA A SIGNIFICANT AIR / WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT FOG COVERAGE TO LEVEL OUT OR EVEN BEGIN TO MIX
OUT A BIT TOWARDS DAWN. NEVERTHELESS, AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE
WARRANTED AN SPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE COLDEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND
ALL OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY, WHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE TYPICAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AMID SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE ~ 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE, GENERALLY 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE A VERY DRY LAYER AT
~H850-H700 THAT WILL MIX DOWN TO AN EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON. A
FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE WARRANTED TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW LOW AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS GET, BUT WILL HOLD OFF AND LET DAY SHIFT RE-EVALUATE.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, A RETROGRADING COASTAL LOW COULD
RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MODEST UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, IF NOT LONGER.
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES, CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING REMAINS LOW, WITH POPS LIKELY WASHED OUT TO AN EXTENT
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR NORMAL ON
TUESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY COURTESY OF RETURN FLOW.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, CURRENTLY AFFECTING KCRW AND KEKN WITH VLIFR
RESTRICTIONS. FOG WILL LIFT / SCATTER FROM ~1100-1300Z THIS
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING). SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT,
WITH RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT KCRW AND KEKN. FOG COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THIS MORNING.
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY,
WITH CALM OR VERY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 09/25/26
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MORNING VALLEY FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-524-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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