012
FXUS61 KRLX 130913
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
513 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH A REDUCTION
OF THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ADDITIONALLY FOR TODAY, DID BUMP UP
WIND GUSTS SLIGHTLY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FURTHER
AHEAD, A GENERAL SLIGHT REDUCTION OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK HAS BEEN MADE. AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS TODAY
AMID BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (20-35 MPH). RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT A WETTING RAIN COULD OCCUR
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
2.) UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK UNDER AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, CHALLENGING DAILY RECORDS AT
TIMES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD.
3.) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THE WORK WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUIET AND VERY MILD MORNING AT PRESENT, WITH MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND RIDGES CURRENTLY STILL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID
70S COURTESY OF TURBULENT LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW. SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED TO AN EXTENT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 50S. ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY COURTESY OF DYNAMIC
LIFTING WITH A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AMID SOUTHWEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN AND
THROUGHOUT MONDAY. GIVEN A RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT LOW/MID LEVEL
AIRMASS, SOME VIRGA AT ONSET COULD OCCUR, WITH ISOLD TO SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER (GENERALLY
30 TO 60 POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY). RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (A WETTING RAIN)
COULD OCCUR. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING, WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN
THE CWA. GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH MID 70S TO 80 EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, BUT AMID MUCH HIGHER RH VALUES (GENERALLY IN THE 40-50%
RANGE). LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WAA COURTESY
OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TRANSLATING INTO
MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. SOME RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS (TYPICAL VALLEY
COLD SPOTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER). RELIEF FROM THIS VERY
EARLY SEASON HEAT LOOKS TO FINALLY COME ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
PERIODIC CHANCES (GENERALLY 20-50%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK (TUESDAY ONWARD),
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, AS WEAK
UPPER WAVES CROSS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION ATOP THE UPPER
RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, COURTESY OF A GULF MOISTURE FEED
(CORE OF MOISTURE FEED REMAINS WEST OF CWA), SHOULD RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT REDUCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COMPARED TO THAT OF LATE,
EVEN WITH A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE FAVORED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WITH ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE REGION. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW, WITH THE GENERAL FEELING BEING THAT
CENTRAL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY TOO ROBUST WITH POPS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. FINALLY, BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 12Z
TUESDAY). CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY TO 040-070 AS SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. WHILE SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY,
A VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION OR TWO CANNOT ENTIRELY BE
RULED OUT IF A HEAVIER SHOWER WERE TO DEVELOP. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN RETURN BY AND LARGE BY 00Z TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING, LASTING UNTIL ~
13-14Z IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS WERE INCLUDED AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR TODAY, WITH GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBY WITH A HEAVIER SHOWER
OR TWO CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
PERSISTENT, ANOMOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR OR RECORD HIGHS.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------------------------
| TUE, 4/14 | WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 85 / 88 (2018) | 88 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) |
HTS | 87 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) |
CKB | 82 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) |
PKB | 85 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 83 / 88 (2002) |
BKW | 80 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) |
EKN | 81 / 85 (2018) | 84 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) |
--------------------------------------------------------
| FRI, 4/17 | SAT, 4/18 |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 86 / 89 (1976) | 90 / 90 (2019) |
HTS | 86 / 87 (1976) | 89 / 89 (1955) |
CKB | 82 / 88 (1969) | 88 / 88 (1976) |
PKB | 84 / 89 (1976) | 88 / 91 (1976) |
BKW | 80 / 84 (1976) | 84 / 86 (1976) |
EKN | 80 / 87 (1976) | 85 / 88 (1976) |
---------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page