939
FXUS61 KRLX 171848
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INTRODUCED RIVER VALLEY FOG INTO TONIGHT'S FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. ADDITIONALLY,
HAVE INTRODUCED LOW-END CHANCE POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS. HEAT MAY IMPACT SENSITIVE POPULATIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
2) MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN, A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH/CROSS LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES, WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AMID MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE STEADILY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK / ILL-DEFINED WARM
FRONT EARLIER TODAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
HAVE EXITED, LEADING TO A DRY REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE H925 FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHTER. FURTHER NORTH, INCREASED FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER 70S AND 80S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY, DID INSERT 30% POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANABATIC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AMID PROGGED MIXED-LAYER CAPE
VALUES OF 500-1,500 J/KG. GIVEN SUCH, DO ANTICIPATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD SINGLE-CELL CONVECTION, WITH ANY
ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING NEAR SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF MONDAY.
GIVEN MODEST DEW POINTS (GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO PERHAPS MID
60S) DURING THIS PERIOD, HEAT INDICES OR THE 'FEELS LIKE'
TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THAT OF THE AIR TEMPERATURE. EVEN
SO, HEAT SAFETY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED THROUGH TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SINCE MAY HAS BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SO FAR, AND
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST STRETCHES OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE AIR CONDITIONING OR IN THE SHADE.
STAY ADEQUATELY HYDRATED DURING THIS STRETCH. IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT
TO CHECK ON THOSE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.
FINALLY, RECORDS COULD BE NEARED AT A FEW SITES DURING THIS
STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER. MORE DETAILS ON CLIMATE RECORDS CAN BE
SEEN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY FROM THE WEST COULD
RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAKING IT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING. IF ACTIVITY WERE
TO ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TOWARDS/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CROSSING FRONT.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THAT OF TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF A PRONOUNCED
MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF (PROGGED BY MOST GUIDANCE), AS
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL, ALBEIT COOLER THAN
EARLY IN THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN THAT MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA IS CATEGORIZED IN EITHER D1 MODERATE DROUGHT OR D2
SEVERE DROUGHT RIGHT NOW, RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK SHOULD BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD (UNTIL 18Z MONDAY), WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT WITH RIVER VALLEY
FOG. ANY FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU (040-080) WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET, WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING CRW/EKN WITH MVFR/IFR (AND PERHAPS LIFR)
RESTRICTIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP QUICKLY LIFTS/DISSIPATES
BY ~ 12Z, WITH A FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU FIELD (035-050) DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH CALM OR VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON
MONDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG TONIGHT; OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------------------------
TODAY | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 88 / 91 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1982) | 90 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 89 / 95 (1908) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 89 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 86 / 90 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 89 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 87 / 94 (1962) | 91 / 95 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 83 / 86 (1962) | 85 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 84 / 87 (2017) | 87 / 89 (1911) | 86 / 93 (1996) |
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RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW
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