435
FXUS61 KRLX 192311
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
711 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
710 PM UPDATE... 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
140 PM UPDATE... UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF A SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
(CURRENTLY) A LOW END SEVERE THREAT ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING.
2. A MOISTURE-RICH SYSTEM WILL BRING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION
AND A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER,
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON MONDAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
3. LARGELY QUIET WEATHER RESUMES FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW COULD YIELD
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS NEAR CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL
PROMOTE EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT
ELKINS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
50S, EASILY FALLING BELOW AFTERNOON MIXED DEW POINTS AS WINDS
DECOUPLE IN ITS RESIDENT PROTECTED VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, MODEST
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE MAY KEEP FOG FROM FORMING OUTSIDE OF
THE DEEPEST RIVER VALLEYS. ANY FOG THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8 AM SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY, THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF A SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CENTRAL GUIDANCE INTERQUARTILE RANGES SUGGEST
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY,
TAPERING TO 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC SUITE, THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING THE MID- LEVEL WAVE AND RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS THE WEAKEST AND THE ECMWF
FALLS IN THE MIDDLE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. THESE
VALUES ARE NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY FROM BNA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH WEAK
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
MODEL TIMING IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL BE ONGOING
BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WIDESPREAD MORNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION VIA DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER, EVEN MODEST HEATING WOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
IN THE PRESENCE OF 40 TO 50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS. THIS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS
MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON EXACT PLACEMENT. SHOULD THE SYSTEM
SLOW DOWN AT ALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD
INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY, A LARGELY HIGH ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER,
WITH NO APPARENT ORGANIZED THREATS FOR HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE
STORMS EXPECTED UNTIL PERHAPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, THEN SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD TRY TO FORM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE FOG DOES FORM; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF FOG IS LOW AS ENOUGH FLOW MAY PERSIST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, RESULTING IN VFR FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 5-12KTS OUT OF THE
WEST DURING THE DAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO MID
20S POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT/INTENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG SUNDAY MORNING. IFR IN
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...20
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