943
FXUS61 KRLX 240556
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT, PROVIDING A
COOLER AND MAINLY DRY UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SE OH THIS MORNING. AS IT DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG FRONT, MAINLY WEST OF THE OH RIVER AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL PARAMETERS INDICATE MODEST SBCAPE REACHING 2200 J/KG, DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR UP TO 25 KNOTS, AND PWATS AROUND 1.23 INCHES. THESE
PARAMETERS, ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE, MAY ALLOW FOR WEAK DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CONVECTION FIRING UP AFTER 2 PM, AND THEN SPREADING SLOWLY EAST LATE
AFTERNOON, AS THEY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NO
SEVERE OR FLOODING THREATS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. NBM SHOWS A
GOOD SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NEAR CALM FLOW. BELIEVE THIS MAY BE THE CASE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.
NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-WEST, EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, WV AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST US, WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING A TASTE OF FALL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
GENERALLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING
INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
TO DROP FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING
INTO THE MID 40S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES, COUPLED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, WILL BRING COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH NO
CONCERNS FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT, COOLER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RIVER VALLEY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS EACH DAY.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW,
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SUNDAY...
EKN AND CKB GOT A DIRECT HIT FROM THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINED DRY. CENTRAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, THAT
COULD INTERFERE WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE LOW STRATUS
INSTEAD. THEREFORE, EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNDER DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING ROUGHLY FROM 09Z TO 13Z. LOW STATUS COULD TAKE LONGER
TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR, PERHAPS BY MID OR LATE MORNING.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO SE OH AROUND 12Z, AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST, EXITING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORMS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR STORMS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT WSW TO WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. BRIEF MVFR COULD OCCUR WITH
STRATOCU AND/OR ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 08/24/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L M L L L L L M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M M M H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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