074
FXUS61 KRLX 230010
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
810 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2021
SYNOPSIS
UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSS TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SATURDAY. WARM FRONT BRUSHES OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY WITH RAIN;
DRY ELSEWHERE. COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY WITH RAIN FOR ALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 810 PM FRIDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THE AREA MOSTLY ENSHROUDED IN STRATOCU
BENEATH INVERSION.
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING FOR THE PERIOD.
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY, WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. STILL LOOKING AT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE AS SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY, GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD TAKE HOLD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS, AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE TEENS MAY
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING. CLOUDS QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM, KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DIPPING TOO
MUCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AT
THE SURFACE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND SHOULD MITIGATE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
TOO MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY FROST IF TEMPERATURES DIP COLD ENOUGH ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY
BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALONG ZONAL FLOW
AT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTH/NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WHERE DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. 50S TO 60S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY, PUSHING OUT THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA AND LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS WELL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, AIDING WITH THESE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. CHANCES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE DRY BREAK ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. A CUT OFF LOW AT THE UPPER
LEVELS ALSO WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN AND POTENTIALLY
LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE,
FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN
WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. PATCHY FROST MAY
BE A POSSIBILITY ON THE CHILLIER NIGHTS NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 810 PM FRIDAY...
AREA REMAINS MOSTLY ENSHROUDED IN STRATOCU THAT WILL FILL IN
FURTHER TONIGHT, AND LOWER. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE
NEAR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND, IN NORTHERN WV, OUT
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL, OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHER RIDGES WILL BE OBSCURED. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE COULD ALSO TAKE VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES,
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSES NORTHERN WV.
THE IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP, YIELDING VFR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS 14Z HTS, WITH
IMPROVEMENT WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING PKB, CRW AND
BKW EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND EKN LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CKB
PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN WV PKB CKB AND EKN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS COULD FLUCTUATE NEAR THE IFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD OF 1000 FEET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/CG
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page