280
FXUS61 KRLX 260755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FRONT SUSTAINS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS IMPACTED
BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.
- 2) TEMPERATURES TURN HOT AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
DURING THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK, HEAT INDICES MAY VERY WELL
APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA AS A FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THEN REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY THIS WEEKEND. ACTIVITY MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A LOW
TRAVELING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS WEEK.
DURING THIS TIME, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES SHOULD ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING RAINFALL. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROFFER A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA,
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO,
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS EAST OF THE WATCH MAY ALSO BE AT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO DELAY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO REASSESS
INCLUSION OF THIS AREA IN A WATCH.
IN ADDITION TO FLOODING, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK
FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS, THOUGH LIMITED SHEAR AND
CLOUD COVER MAY TEMPER THE SEVERE RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN HOTTER AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND THEN REMAINS CENTERED OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH UPPER 80S TO 90S IN THE LOWLANDS EACH
AFTERNOON, WHILE ENOUGH HUMIDITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO BUOY HEAT
INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERIODIC SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILINGS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A
FRONT. THIS RENEWED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PROMPT ADDITIONAL
MVFR OR WORSE CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF SPORADIC GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS, WINDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN/STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/26/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H L H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H M H L H L H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN
EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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