093
FXUS61 KRLX 272340
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
150 PM UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY THAT OF THE WINTRY TYPE, APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND IMPACT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ARRIVES LATER, BUT A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETS
UP ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, MAKING WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THEN AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY MILDER TO START THE WEEKEND, WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS FOG
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.AREAS
OF DENSE FOG LIKELY THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT.
- 2) A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING
RAIN AND MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- 3) WARMING BEGINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH RAIN
AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A MILDER AFTERNOON COMING OUT OF FOG AND STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING
CONSIDERABLY LESS FOG AND STRATUS, AND THEN SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE A MUCH MILDER AFTERNOON, ALL UNDER RETURN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN INITIALLY DRY COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALMOST INTERRUPTING THE MILD DAY, BEFORE
BEING HELD UP BY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, IN THE WAKE OF WHICH IT
THEN SAILS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME AS
IT CROSSES, WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN TIER, AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.
AS FLAT WAVE FOLLOWS THIS FRONT MONDAY, POSSIBLY STARTING EARLY
IN THE MORNING, INTO TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN A
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION FROM SNOW NORTH TO RAIN SOUTH,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THESE TRANSITIONS MAY BE,
AND HOW QUICKLY THEY THEN MOVE NORTH ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION,
THERE COULD BE A STRIPE OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE.
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SETS UP A
CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
MAKING WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THERE. THIS IS A MORE
CONDUCIVE SET UP FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE HIGH CONTINUES
SLIDING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AND THEN, EVENTUALLY, EASTWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION FLOW TO
SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR ALONG AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ERADICATING THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FROM THEN ON.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND
LIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS IF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES THERE EARLY ENOUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING
SETUP. THIS WINTRY WEATHER MAY IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE, THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WARM ADVECTION RAIN. IT MAY DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT ANOTHER WARM WAVE, TRACKING EVEN FARTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND WITH GREATER MODEL SPREAD ON ITS TRACK AND TIMING, WILL
TAKE ANY COOLER AIR RIGHT BACK OUT OF THE AREA, AND THE TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER CONTINUES. RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, DEPENDING UPON ITS TRACK
AND TIMING.
LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES GO FROM 50S ON TUESDAY TO POSSIBLY
THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
REACHING THESE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK DUE TO A VERY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SETTING UP BY THAT TIMEFRAME
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AT MOST
SITES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT OUTSIDE ANY TERMINALS, PERHAPS
LIMITED TO THE BETTER SHELTERED- DEEPER VALLEYS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.
WINDS BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
MORNING AND LIGHT WEST MIDDAY SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST ON
SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEARBY EKN
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WINTRY MIX LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ
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