862
FXUS61 KRLX 040544
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
THREAT ENDING. ALSO, LET THE REST OF THE ADVISORIES FURTHER
SOUTH EXPIRE AS THE THREAT HAS ENDED AS WELL. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL STILL BE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AND ROADS COULD HAVE SLICK
SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ONES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN TREATED. MORE SNOW IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE ADVISORIES BUT THE BAND HAS DIMINISHED
SOME WITH THE THREAT AND IMPACTS BEING MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THAT WILL BE AFFECTED WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THIS MORNING, BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA.
- 2) A COLD FRONT FRIDAY BRINGS PRECIPITATION. HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS COULD NEED WIND ADVISORIES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
- 3) A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING,
CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA. IN THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE
A MIX DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT WOULD TURN BACK TO SNOW LATE IN
THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL, SO
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH, ALTHOUGH
A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION, CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEED FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT SATURDAY WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE. THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS COULD NEED
SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. ALL
LOCATIONS WILL GET WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOME LOWLAND
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA SHOULD GRADUALLY END THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THIS WILL CAUSE A RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
COULD VARY. LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF RETURNING IFR CONDITIONS
TODAY COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 02/04/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L L M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L M L L L M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M L L L L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M L M H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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