524
FXUS61 KRLX 202347
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
647 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS REMAIN TONIGHT, BUT WIND
CHILLS WILL RISE ABOVE DANGEROUS CRITERIA. AN IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AS
MODELS ARE NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT OF A SOLUTION, BUT HEAVY
AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.
BECOMING MORE MILD, BUT WINDY ON WEDNESDAY.
2.) A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A
RESULT.
3.) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS OUR AREA. AMOUNTS ARE STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE DUE
TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
4.) ANOTHER SHOT OF EXTREME COLD LOOKS POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VERY COLD, BLUSTERY, AND DRY TODAY COURTESY OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS HAS EXPIRED AND THE EXTREME COLD WARNING IN THE
MOUNTAINS DROPS OFF AT 2PM. THIS AS WINDS SLACK OFF SOME LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
ANOTHER COLD ONE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST OVERNIGHT
THOUGH RESULTING IN A DIMINISHED DANGEROUS WIND CHILL THREAT.
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS
COUNTIES COULD SEE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT
THOUGH AS WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS THE RIDGES.
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS; 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
FROM THE WEST. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
EXIST ELSEWHERE.
RECENT BLEND OF MODELS THROWS SOME LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS (A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) ACROSS THE RIDGES EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
WARM NOSE ALOFT, BUT NAM12 AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE SNOW
WITH MAYBE SOME SLEET MIXING. IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE,
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE MUCH MORE
OR IF ICE LOOKS TO BE MORE PROBABLE. THE CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
DO NOT WARRANT ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OUR WEATHER TURNS MOSTLY QUIET THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND MOUNTAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN WINTER STORM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS STILL DIVERGE ON AMOUNTS AND TIMING, BUT ONE
THING THEY AGREE ON ARE IMPACTS. HEAVY SNOWFALL DOES LOOK
PROMISING IN OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER CANADA, SOUTHERN STREAM LOW, AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES RESULTANT OF AN ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LEAD
TO A CLASSIC MILLER B TYPE OF SET UP. THIS SET UP IS TYPICAL OF
MOST OF OUR HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENTS.
MODELS, HOWEVER, DO NOT AGREE ON HOW STRONG THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NOR HOW FAR TO OUR SOUTH IT WILL PASS. THE ~12Z GFS SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMOUNTS, KEEPING THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS (ABOVE 8") ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC/SC AS THE LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE.
THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN LOCKED IN ON HIGH AMOUNTS
OF 8-12" ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN OUR VA AND SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES. THE
ICON MODEL, PREVIOUSLY THE MOST CONSERVATIVE, HAS INCREASED
AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENT BLEND OF MODELS
DATA HAS A 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 8-10 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS WEEKEND.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND DOES
EXIST, BUT AMOUNTS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT AND ANY SHIFT
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL CAUSE AMOUNTS TO INCREASE OR
DECREASE, AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH THESE MODEL RUNS THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THIS FAR OUT IT IS BEST TO PREPARE FOR THE THREAT OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL, BUT BE MINDFUL THAT A CATASTROPHIC OR HISTORIC STORM
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH NUDGES IN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO THE COLDEST. LATEST
BLEND OF MODELS DATA HAS LOWS IN THE SINGLE AND NEGATIVE DIGITS
ACROSS OUR AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AND BITTER
WIND CHILLS. FUTURE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES COULD BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS COMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC WEATHER
RETURNS STARKLY AFTER OUR WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
QUIET FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
VICINITY OF OUR AIRSPACE WILL YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS BREEZY TO
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP BY MIDDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TIMED OUT ONSET
SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, AROUND 16Z FOR OUR WESTERN
TERMINALS, WITH POCKETS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW VFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS ROUND
OUT THE VALID PERIOD OF KHTS AND KPKB, WITH FURTHER
DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS PROGGED FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND IN
HEAVY SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/LTC
AVIATION...05
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