980
FXUS61 KRLX 161738
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS, STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BREEZES TONIGHT.
2) WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
3) QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELING NORTHEAST ALONG THE CANADA/NEW
ENGLAND BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. MAINLY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY IS LOW, A STRONGER GUST OR
TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
GIVEN WET GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAIN, EVEN SUB- SEVERE WIND
GUSTS MAY DOWN TREES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND IS ANTICIPATED TO SUSTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS
INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION STARTS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, RAIN MAY
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING AN END TO ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THEN CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS SET IN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY, THEN OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIVE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S TO 30S. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO, WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FROST ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN DRIER WEATHER FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE A LOW SPIRALS OFF OF
THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COAST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
DURING THIS TIME, ONE MORE FROSTY MORNING COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN LOW CEILINGS AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND 25
TO 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE TAFS, TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H L H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-
MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG PRODUCING LIFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ009>011-017>020-027>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085.
KY...NONE.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page