399
FXUS61 KRLX 300001
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
801 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, LARGELY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) CLEAR SKIES AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 MPH.
2.): UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUBJECT TO COLD
AIR DRAINAGE..
3.) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE. TONIGHT, WET ANTECEDENT
GROUND CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL
LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES, VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL FORM, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
AT LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS FOG WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MIXING FROM THESE WINDS SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE VALLEY FOG
EARLIER IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS GRADIENTS RELAX AND HIGH
PRESSURE REASSERTS CONTROL. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THE INFLUX OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS
BEHIND SATURDAY MORNING'S FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BY SUNDAY MORNING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WITH THE
HIGHEST UNCERTAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SOMEWHAT INHIBIT
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY INFLUENCED BY A BLOCKING
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN, KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY.
HOWEVER, A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA
ON MONDAY, WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING UNDER SCT OF FEW HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS. NW'RLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG FOR MANY SITES
WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOWER STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
TRAVERSING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY CAUSE FOG TO BE LESS DENSE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. CRW AND EKN WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE SITES
WITH IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS PROVIDED THERE ARE ADEQUATE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT, THIS MAY
DISSIPATE ANY FOG PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY OF FOG AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID-
WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...LTC
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