094
FXUS61 KRLX 260953
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
553 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION 550 AM...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO
SOME INSTANCES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH A LINE OF
STORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT. BENEFICIAL RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD
CREATE LOW VISIBILITY IN SPOTS.
2.) A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH A STRONG FRONT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.
3.)BENEFICIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
4.) COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS MULTIPLE NIGHTS THEN ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, SURFACE TROUGH, AND NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL CREATE A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. VISIBILITY MAY BE AS LOW AS A ONE
MILE TO HALF A MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WV, SOUTHWEST VA, AND THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
CURRENTLY, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY DOESN'T SEEN WARRANTED, BUT IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OR WORSEN(WIDESPREAD 1/2 MILE
OR LESS) THEN AN SPS WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREAS THAT HAVE
THE WORST VISIBILITY.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AWAY BY MID MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOWLANDS AND BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
DRIER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WELL TO
OUR WEST MOSTLY, IN THE MIDWEST WITH SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
BOASTING CAPABILITIES FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI. A SUBSEQUENT
BOWING LINE SEGMENT FORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING A MAJOR FACTOR WITH THIS AS IT TRAVERSES EASTWARD
INTO INDIANA, KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE MODELS SHOW THE FORCING COLD FRONT SLOWING DOWN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL ALLOWING THE LINE OF STORMS TO SLOW DOWN
SOME AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD AND INTO OUR AREA BY VERY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS NOCTURNAL PASSAGE, INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED, THUS LEADING TO A VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS MAY ONLY BE MORE OF A THREAT ACROSS OUR OHIO AND
KENTUCKY COUNTIES AS SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE PRESENT.
THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THIS COLD FRONT MOVES WHICH
MODELS WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE OF THIS IN FUTURE UPDATES.
REGARDLESS, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS LINE CROSSES. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE PROJECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.50", BUT
THINKING THE EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER IN PLACE WILL EVAPORATE A
PORTION OF THIS INITIALLY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN IS SLATED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. MORE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS STIFLED DUE TO TIMING AND A FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL SOAK
THE AREA AS THE PERSISTENT DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE IS
OVERCOME. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETWEEN 0.50" AND 0.75" OF
RAINFALL IS PROMISING FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
MUCH MILDER WEATHER IS IN STORE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH COOLER
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVING THURSDAY. THE
LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT A RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S
AS HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND; THE MOUNTAINS STAYING IN
THE 40S AND 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE
PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME 20S BEING
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES. MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF FROST OR
FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN
1,000 AND 3,000 FEET AGL AT MOST SITES. BKW, CKB, AND EKN MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS BELOW 1,000 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THAT
SAID, MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW
STRATUS ERODES AWAY FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ~14-16Z. VFR WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOW WITH ALL SITES FORECASTED TO BE VFR BY ~18Z
OR ~19Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY N-NE'RLY TODAY SUSTAINED 5 TO 9
KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, MOSTLY THE GREENBRIER VALLEY, AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TODAY WILL
LIKELY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/26/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...JRM/LTC
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