774
FXUS61 KRLX 190930
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT THE FREEZE
WATCH WAS REPLACED WITH A FREEZE WARNING AND THE FREEZE WARNING
WAS EXPANDED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. ALSO, A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH FROST AND FREEZE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
2) THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AMID MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
3) THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER IMPACTS
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW, IF ANY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS AND
FROST TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HEADLINES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE THE 38 DEGREE THRESHOLD.
MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS,
WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DUE TO ALMOST AREA WIDE FREEZING OR BELOW TEMPERATURES. PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS WILL LIKELY NEED A FROST ADVISORY.
IMPACTS TO VEGETATION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND TODAYS FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED TO PROPERLY
PROTECT PLANTS AND VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAILY MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE 20S/30S PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WIND, ALTHOUGH BELOW ANY RED FLAG
CRITERIA, WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS. A DISTURBANCE WILL SWING BY THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, HOPEFULLY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF TO SUPPRESS FIRE
DANGER IN CERTAIN AREAS, HOWEVER THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE
VERY MINOR AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT RECEIVE ANY
RAINFALL. WITH A GOOD WETTING FROM THE COLD FRONT TODAY,
HOPEFULLY THIS WILL REFRAIN THE FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR AT LEAST
INTO MONDAY. REGARDLESS, THIS SETUP WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED ON A DAILY BASIS AND COLLABORATED WITH LOCAL PARTNERS
TO SEE IF ANY SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES OR A WINTRY MIX IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHERE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT IN SOME
MOISTURE AND CREATE CHANCES FOR A SNOW/RAIN MIX OR JUST SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME PARTS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS DOWN TO THE BECKLEY AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ELSEWHERE. THIS TIME AROUND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGES OF THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WE EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS TO STAY IN THE VERY TOPS OF THE PEAKS AND RIDGES.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE AREA IS UNDER POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE MOMENT
WHICH IS DECREASING VIS TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WELL AS DECREASING
CIGS TO MVFR OR WORSE. THIS WILL BE THE THEME GOING INTO THE
LATE MORNING AT WHICH POINT THE RAIN TAPERS OFF AND CIGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR. THEREAFTER, VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AMID NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE GUSTING
INTO THE TEENS AT TIMES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION COULD VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER CIGS THIS MORNING MAY
ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/19/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND IFR POSSIBLE
IN RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ006>011-
014>020-026>032-034-039-040-515>521-524.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
525-526.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ076-083-
085>087.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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