494
FXUS61 KRLX 230849
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
449 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. ALSO UPDATED THE WEATHER
GRIDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS TO INCLUDE RIVER VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING.
210 AM UPDATE...
DECAYING CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT HAS PETERED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING, LEAVING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME
RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WAS INTRODUCED IN THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK FOR THE FAR REACHES OF PERRY COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO AN ENCROACHING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG A NEARBY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ATTACHED TO THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BEFORE THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER LOOMS INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARLY MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOWS THE LAST OF DECAYING CONVECTION
FROM THIS PAST EVENING PETERING OUT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA. OTHERWISE, ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING IS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, A BOUNDARY QUIETLY DRAPED THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL FIRE OFF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIMITED INSTABILITY TODAY WILL TEMPER THE SEVERITY OF STORMS.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE REGION
REMAINS PLANTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR POP UP SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WITHIN AGGRAVATED
CUMULUS FIELDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL
ARRIVE TO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE EVENING, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALIGNED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SIMULATED RADAR
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME DEPICTS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REACHING PERRY
COUNTY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER GRAZES THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE COUNTY. THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AT THE TIME OF THIS LINE'S ARRIVAL WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING THE STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS AS THEY SLIDE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
A SECONDARY LINE OF PRECIPITATION, DENOTING THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT ITSELF, SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES QUICKLY DASH FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO A DROUGHT STRICKEN REGION SO FAR THIS
SPRING.
A PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLES IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ACTIVE WEATHER LOOMS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. A FEW PASSING DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST CYCLE.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HOVER AROUND THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OVERNIGHT HAS CREPT
ITS WAY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, WITH SIGNS OF LOWERED CEILINGS
ALREADY REACHING HTS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE INTENSE FOG THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AMID
PATCHY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE AND SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT EKN, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINED TOO LOW FOR
MENTIONS AT OTHER TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT,
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WINDS
DECOUPLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THIS MORNING MAY BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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