514
FNUS51 KALY 041834
FWFALY
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VALLEY AREAS DESPITE HAVING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND
EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, RESULTING IN RH VALUES OF 30-35%. WINDS ARE ALSO QUITE
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RH VALUES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE WITH
DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS TOWARDS SUNSET, RECOVERING TO 60-80%
TONIGHT, HIGHEST IN THE ADKS. SPSS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST AS THE COMBINATION
OF DRYING FINE FUELS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY. IT WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES F WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
BE A LITTLE HIGHER AS WELL. NEVERTHELESS, WE EXPECT RH VALUES TO
GET AS LOW AS 27-33% IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY. LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE THERE THERE WILL BE DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE CATSKILLS, WHICH
SHOULD ALSO HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S. RH ALSO LOOKS TO
DROP INTO THE 35-40% RANGE FOR THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS ALSO WILL BE STRONGER THAN TODAY, WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH. WE COORDINATED WITH NY STATE
PARTNERS, WHO CONFIRMED THAT DESPITE VEGETATION CONTINUING TO
GREEN UP, THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH AREAS WHERE FINE FUELS ARE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TOMORROW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY FDRA DOWN TO ULSTER AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES WHERE RH IS LOWEST. FOR THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, WHERE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS, ANOTHER SPS WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT ONE
EXPIRES THIS EVENING. FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, HIGHER RH
VALUES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PREVENT THE NEED
FOR ANY SPSS.
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE REGION-WIDE. THIS SHOULD HELP
PUT AN END TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
NYZ206-050830-
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OLD FORGE, LONG LAKE, SPECULATOR, PISECO,
NORTHVILLE, CAROGA LAKE, AND JOHNSTOWN
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS TSTMS TSTMS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 20 70 90 90
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 50 50 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 46 (+7) 69 (+7) 39 52
RH % (24H TREND) 92 (-1) 55 (+9) 100 81
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 10 G34 LGT/VAR
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) S 6 G21 SW 13 G34 W 7 G27 LGT/VAR
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.01 0.34 0.42 0.77
PRECIP DURATION 1 5 12 12
PRECIP BEGIN 2 AM CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 6270 2500
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 29 E 6
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 156750 12500
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 6 6 9
MAX LVORI LATE 5 4 8 9
REMARKS...NONE.
NYZ207-050830-
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NORTH CREEK, GLENS FALLS,
SARATOGA SPRINGS, CLIFTON PARK, WHITEHALL, AND CAMBRIDGE
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE TSTMS TSTMS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 60 70 100
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 50 50 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 47 (+7) 78 (+12) 45 60
RH % (24H TREND) 83 (+1) 36 (-1) 100 81
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 10 G37 LGT/VAR
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) SW 7 G24 SW 16 G37 SW 9 G33 SE 6 G17
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.16 0.29 0.74
PRECIP DURATION 2 9 12
PRECIP BEGIN 6 AM CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 8190 2110
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 33 S 8
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 237510 14770
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 4 5 8
MAX LVORI LATE 4 3 8 8
REMARKS...NONE.
NYZ208-050830-
MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF AMSTERDAM, SCHENECTADY, ALBANY, TROY,
BERLIN, BERNE, CAIRO, CATSKILL, CHATHAM, KINGSTON, POUGHKEEPSIE,
DOVER PLAINS, ELLENVILLE, AND MONTICELLO
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE SHOWERS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 40 100
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 49 (+10) 81 (+13) 52 66
RH % (24H TREND) 82 (+6) 29 (-2) 89 73
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 10 G39 S 7 G21
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) S 7 G24 SW 16 G39 SW 10 G35 S 8 G21
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.40
PRECIP DURATION 2 9
PRECIP BEGIN 7 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 8790 2860
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 33 S 16
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 254910 40040
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 4 3 6
MAX LVORI LATE 4 2 5 6
REMARKS...NONE.
NYZ209-050830-
CATSKILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TANNERSVILLE AND PHOENICIA
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE SHOWERS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 40 100
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 45 (+9) 77 (+13) 52 63
RH % (24H TREND) 85 (+7) 32 (-2) 88 73
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 11 G39 S 7 G23
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) SW 8 G28 SW 16 G39 SW 10 G35 S 7 G23
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.66
PRECIP DURATION 2 10
PRECIP BEGIN 7 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 8290 3180
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 35 S 16
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 248700 44520
ADI EARLY VERY POOR 1 VERY POOR VERY POOR 1 VERY POOR
ADI LATE 1 VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR 1 VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 4 3 5
MAX LVORI LATE 4 2 5 5
REMARKS...NONE.
VTZ036-050830-
SOUTHERN TACONICS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BENNINGTON, MANCHESTER CENTER, AND POWNAL
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE TSTMS TSTMS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 30 50 100
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 30 50 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 49 (+9) 76 (+12) 50 64
RH % (24H TREND) 73 (-4) 36 (0) 90 71
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) S 11 G40 S 6 G20
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) SW 8 G31 SW 17 G40 SW 10 G36 S 8 G20
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.04 0.22 0.62
PRECIP DURATION 1 2 10
PRECIP BEGIN 9 AM CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 7470 2990
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 32 S 16
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 209160 41860
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 4 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 4 2 6 6
REMARKS...NONE.
VTZ037-050830-
SOUTHERN GREENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LONDONDERRY, STRATTON,
WOODFORD STATE PARK, AND STAMFORD
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE SHOWERS TSTMS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 20 40 100
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 40 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 46 (+9) 74 (+12) 50 63
RH % (24H TREND) 79 (-3) 37 (+1) 90 75
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 10 G40 S 5 G21
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) SW 7 G28 SW 16 G40 SW 11 G37 S 6 G21
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.01 0.11 0.49
PRECIP DURATION 1 2 9
PRECIP BEGIN 8 AM 7 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END 6 PM CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 7860 3040
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 36 S 18
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 243660 48640
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 4 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 4 3 6 6
REMARKS...NONE.
VTZ038-050830-
LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY SOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BELLOWS FALLS, BRATTLEBORO,
GUILFORD CENTER, AND WEST BRATTLEBORO
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE TSTMS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 40 90
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 20 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 44 (+5) 79 (+13) 52 65
RH % (24H TREND) 86 (+5) 33 (+2) 90 71
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) S 8 G35 LGT/VAR
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) SW 6 G23 SW 15 G35 SW 9 G31 S 5 G19
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.36
PRECIP DURATION 2 9
PRECIP BEGIN 7 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 8130 2850
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 36 S 18
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 252030 45600
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 5 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 5 2 6 6
REMARKS...NONE.
MAZ001-050830-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DALTON, HANCOCK, PITTSFIELD, FLORIDA,
AND NORTH ADAMS
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE SHOWERS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 40 100
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 47 (+9) 76 (+12) 53 64
RH % (24H TREND) 75 (0) 34 (+2) 82 66
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 12 G41 S 10 G24
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) SW 9 G26 SW 18 G41 SW 12 G37 S 11 G24
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.35
PRECIP DURATION 2 9
PRECIP BEGIN 7 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 7280 2850
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 36 S 20
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 225680 48450
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 4 4 5
MAX LVORI LATE 4 2 4 5
REMARKS...NONE.
MAZ025-050830-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SANDISFIELD, GREAT BARRINGTON,
AND SOUTH EGREMONT
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE SHOWERS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 30 100
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 48 (+10) 78 (+13) 55 66
RH % (24H TREND) 80 (+3) 33 (+1) 85 70
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 11 G40 S 8 G24
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) SW 8 G25 SW 17 G40 SW 11 G35 S 9 G24
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28
PRECIP DURATION 2 9
PRECIP BEGIN 8 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 7770 3010
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 37 SW 21
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 248640 54180
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 4 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 4 2 5 6
REMARKS...NONE.
CTZ001-050830-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF TORRINGTON
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE SHOWERS SHOWERS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 20 90
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 47 (+8) 79 (+12) 55 66
RH % (24H TREND) 84 (+11) 32 (+2) 88 74
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 9 G36 S 8 G24
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) S 8 G24 SW 16 G36 S 12 G33 S 9 G24
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23
PRECIP DURATION 1 5
PRECIP BEGIN 11 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 8200 2910
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 36 SW 20
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 254200 49470
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 5 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 5 2 5 6
REMARKS...NONE.
CTZ013-050830-
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OAKVILLE, GAYLORDSVILLE, NEW MILFORD,
TERRYVILLE, AND THOMASTON
234 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT TUE TUE NIGHT WED
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE RAIN
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 0 0 0 90
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 46 (+7) 80 (+12) 56 65
RH % (24H TREND) 90 (+18) 33 (+5) 90 77
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) SW 8 G36 S 9 G25
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) S 7 G23 SW 16 G36 S 12 G33 S 11 G25
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21
PRECIP DURATION 5
PRECIP BEGIN 6 AM
PRECIP END CONTINUING
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 8130 2440
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) SW 33 S 17
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 235770 36600
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 6 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 6 2 6 6
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
THURSDAY
RAIN. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
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