119
FNUS51 KALY 011810
FWFALY
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
DISCUSSION
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
US THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH. HOWEVER, RH VALUES
WILL INCREASE FOR TONIGHT, AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRINGS SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT. UP TO A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED RH VALUES AND
LIGHT WINDS. A DRYING DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. RH
VALUES MAY DROP AS LOW AS 35-40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE EAST OFF THE
NORTHEAST, THERE WILL BE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY, BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD, GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED THANKS TO THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS
DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
AND COLLABORATED AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST 20-30 MPH FOR THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH GOOD MIXING, RH VALUES WILL
LOWER BELOW EXPECTED NBM DEWPOINTS, WITH VALUES AS LOW AS 25-30
PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS.
WE HAVE ALREADY NOTIFIED NYS DEC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THEY
WILL BE DISCUSSING THE STATE OF THE FUELS FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S
RAINFALL WITH US ON SATURDAY. IF FINE FUELS ARE ABLE TO DRY OUT
(WHICH THEY TYPICALLY DO THIS TIME OF YEAR), THEN RED FLAG
WARNINGS OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS
OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WITH OUR REGION STILL IN THE PRE-
GREENUP PHASE, IT IS VERY EASY FOR THE COMBINATION OF FUELS, RH
AND WIND GUSTS TO REACH CRITERIA FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WELL. WHILE
SOME ELEVATED RH IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AREAS DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS/MOISTURE, LOW RH MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
NYZ206-020815-
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OLD FORGE, LONG LAKE, SPECULATOR, PISECO,
NORTHVILLE, CAROGA LAKE, AND JOHNSTOWN
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 70 20 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 30 (-3) 50 (0) 26 50
RH % (24H TREND) 99 (+4) 43 (+3) 96 35
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR W 5 G17 LGT/VAR W 8 G27
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.15 0.03 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 3 1
PRECIP BEGIN 6 PM 11 AM
PRECIP END 5 AM 6 PM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 6660 8480
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) W 12 W 22
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 66600 161120
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 7 4 4
MAX LVORI LATE 7 2 7 4
REMARKS...NONE.
NYZ207-020815-
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NORTH CREEK, GLENS FALLS,
SARATOGA SPRINGS, CLIFTON PARK, WHITEHALL, AND CAMBRIDGE
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 80 20 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 35 (-3) 56 (0) 31 55
RH % (24H TREND) 99 (+9) 39 (+6) 91 34
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 6 G29
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR W 6 G17 LGT/VAR NW 10 G29
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 5 1
PRECIP BEGIN 7 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 6 PM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 6480 9110
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) W 9 NW 21
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 51840 163980
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 9 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 8 3 6 6
REMARKS...NONE.
NYZ208-020815-
MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF AMSTERDAM, SCHENECTADY, ALBANY, TROY,
BERLIN, BERNE, CAIRO, CATSKILL, CHATHAM, KINGSTON, POUGHKEEPSIE,
DOVER PLAINS, ELLENVILLE, AND MONTICELLO
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 70 0 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 38 (0) 57 (-2) 31 56
RH % (24H TREND) 97 (+11) 38 (+2) 81 30
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 8 G32
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 5 LGT/VAR NW 11 G32
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 5
PRECIP BEGIN 6 PM
PRECIP END 6 AM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 7170 9030
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NW 9 NW 21
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 57360 162540
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 7 3 4
MAX LVORI LATE 7 2 4 4
REMARKS...NONE.
NYZ209-020815-
CATSKILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TANNERSVILLE AND PHOENICIA
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS NONE NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 90 0 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 34 (+1) 54 (-1) 28 53
RH % (24H TREND) 97 (+10) 39 (+2) 78 31
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 8 G29
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 10 G29
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 5
PRECIP BEGIN 6 PM
PRECIP END 6 AM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 6820 8800
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NW 8 NW 21
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 47740 158400
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 7 4 4
MAX LVORI LATE 8 2 4 4
REMARKS...NONE.
VTZ036-020815-
SOUTHERN TACONICS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BENNINGTON, MANCHESTER CENTER, AND POWNAL
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 80 40 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 37 (-2) 55 (0) 31 54
RH % (24H TREND) 95 (+4) 42 (+6) 90 37
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 5 G29
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR W 6 LGT/VAR NW 10 G29
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.13 0.05 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 5 1
PRECIP BEGIN 9 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 6 PM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 5740 8560
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) W 8 NW 24
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 40180 179760
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 8 4 7
MAX LVORI LATE 7 4 7 7
REMARKS...NONE.
VTZ037-020815-
SOUTHERN GREENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LONDONDERRY, STRATTON,
WOODFORD STATE PARK, AND STAMFORD
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 70 40 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 36 (-1) 52 (0) 30 51
RH % (24H TREND) 99 (+4) 46 (+8) 92 40
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 5 G27
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 6 G27
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.08 0.04 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 4 1
PRECIP BEGIN 9 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 6 PM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 6000 8520
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) W 9 NW 26
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 48000 195960
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 9 4 7
MAX LVORI LATE 8 4 7 7
REMARKS...NONE.
VTZ038-020815-
LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY SOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BELLOWS FALLS, BRATTLEBORO,
GUILFORD CENTER, AND WEST BRATTLEBORO
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 40 10 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 38 (-2) 56 (-1) 35 55
RH % (24H TREND) 98 (+3) 43 (+9) 88 35
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 6 G26
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 3 2 1
PRECIP BEGIN 10 PM CONTINUING 7 PM
PRECIP END CONTINUING 6 PM 6 AM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 5850 8620
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NW 8 NW 26
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 40950 198260
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 9 4 7
MAX LVORI LATE 7 4 7 7
REMARKS...NONE.
MAZ001-020815-
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DALTON, HANCOCK, PITTSFIELD, FLORIDA,
AND NORTH ADAMS
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 70 40 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 37 (-2) 54 (-1) 31 53
RH % (24H TREND) 97 (+9) 40 (+7) 86 34
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) W 5 NW 9 G33
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 6 NW 5 G17 NW 12 G33
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.11 0.04 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 5 1
PRECIP BEGIN 9 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 2 PM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 5860 7680
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) W 10 NW 26
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 52740 176640
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 3 8 3 6
MAX LVORI LATE 7 4 5 6
REMARKS...NONE.
MAZ025-020815-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SANDISFIELD, GREAT BARRINGTON,
AND SOUTH EGREMONT
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 70 50 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 38 (0) 55 (-2) 32 54
RH % (24H TREND) 99 (+10) 43 (+8) 84 33
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 8 G32
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 5 LGT/VAR NW 11 G32
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 5 1
PRECIP BEGIN 7 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 2 PM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 5490 7960
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NW 12 NW 26
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 54900 183080
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 9 4 6
MAX LVORI LATE 8 3 6 6
REMARKS...NONE.
CTZ001-020815-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF TORRINGTON
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 50 0 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 41 (+4) 56 (-3) 33 55
RH % (24H TREND) 97 (+9) 46 (+9) 80 33
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 9 G31
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 5 LGT/VAR NW 10 G31
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 2 1
PRECIP BEGIN 8 PM CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING 1 PM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 5500 8720
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NW 10 NW 28
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 49500 209280
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 8 4 5
MAX LVORI LATE 7 4 5 5
REMARKS...NONE.
CTZ013-020815-
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OAKVILLE, GAYLORDSVILLE, NEW MILFORD,
TERRYVILLE, AND THOMASTON
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT SAT SAT NIGHT SUN
CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE SHOWERS SHOWERS SHOWERS NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 50 20 0
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0 0
TEMP (24H TREND) 43 (+6) 58 (-3) 36 57
RH % (24H TREND) 96 (+3) 49 (+12) 76 32
WIND 20FT/EARLY(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 9 G29
WIND 20FT/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR NW 5 LGT/VAR NW 11 G29
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION 2 2 1
PRECIP BEGIN 8 PM CONTINUING CONTINUING
PRECIP END CONTINUING CONTINUING 6 AM
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL/MSL) 5460 8630
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NW 10 NW 28
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 49140 207120
ADI EARLY VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
ADI LATE VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR VERY POOR
MAX LVORI EARLY 4 8 4 4
MAX LVORI LATE 7 4 4 4
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS
AROUND 50. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.
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