970
FNUS71 KALY 111003
FWSALY
SPOT FORECAST FOR SMITH FARM BIG BEND RX...NYSOPRHP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
603 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
VERY DEEP MIXING TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON, LOWEST IN VALLEY AREAS, WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH. RH VALUES RECOVER TONIGHT RISING TO 80 TO 100%
WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY. THEN, RH VALUES LOWER AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD DROPPING TO 30 TO 40%.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER UNDER 20MPH.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............32.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (35400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (99900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1 2 17 19 27 29 40 46 45
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............43 47 50 53 56 58 60 61 62
DEWPOINT........34 33 32 31 31 31 31 31 32
RH..............70 58 50 43 38 36 33 32 32
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..1 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.3 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 5.5 7.2 7.7 8.0 8.4 9.1 8.6 7.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 10
LVORI...........4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
VRATE KT-FT/1K..35 55 72 77 80 84 100 95 69
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............33.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN
THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 3 TO 5
MPH OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (50000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............3.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........43 40 50 27 42 57 63 68 74 76 79 81
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............61 59 56 50 47 46 44 42 41 40 40 41
DEWPOINT........32 34 35 M M 35 M M 34 M M 34
RH..............33 39 45 56 63 65 70 73 76 79 79 76
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.7 5 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NE NE N N NE NE NE NE E SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 5
LVORI...........2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..50 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............39 INCREASING TO 46 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 22 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (48900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.28 INCHES.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........83 84 86 86 86 90 90 93 96 96 96 96
WEATHER COV..... LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 60 60 60 80 80 80 90 90 90 90
TEMP............42 43 45 47 48 50 52 53 54 55 56 56
DEWPOINT........M M 37 M M 41 M M 45 M M 48
RH..............76 76 73 71 74 71 69 71 71 72 72 74
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0 0 2 5 7 9 10 10 10 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.1 1 2 6 10 15 17 20 21 21 21 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 8 9 10 12 15 20 22 21 18 15
LVORI...........4 4 4 M M M M M M M M M
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 3 5 6 8 11 22 38 49 44 31 20
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR PR
FORECASTER...31
REQUESTED BY...JEN SELFRIDGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613227.0/ALY
.DELDT 05/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JENNIFER.SELFRIDGE@PARKS.NY.GOV
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