544  
FXUS61 KALY 152342  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
742 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING CLEAR, COMFORTABLE  
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AS THE HUMIDITY STARTS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WEEK, AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY  
TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 742 PM EDT...AREAS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT OPAQUE  
THOUGH, SO HAVE ONLY INCREASED MENTION TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE  
ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
A PERIOD OF CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR WITH SOME  
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS  
DRY AND WITH A DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL  
INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F IN A FEW OF THE VALLEY AREAS. SOME  
ISOLATED UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  
COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST NEAR LAKE  
GEORGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER HUDSON AND ALSO EAST OF THE SOUTHERN  
GREEN MTNS. SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT BACK IN AND MAY LIMIT  
TEMPS FROM FALLING FURTHER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY  
NORTHEAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HUMIDITY  
LEVELS AND SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE PLEASANT OR  
COMFORTABLE SIDE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL EVENTUALLY GET  
INVOLVED WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST  
CONUS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF  
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN  
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THAT AREA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE  
WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE  
LACKING AND THEY SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST  
TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AS THEY ENCOUNTER  
INCREASINGLY DRYER AND STABLE AIR. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS  
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON,  
OTHERWISE THE DRY FORECAST WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY.  
 
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY  
NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. A FEW OF THOSE  
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY  
OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY  
LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED DAY AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
REMAINS OF BARRY AND SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES TOWARD  
OUR AREA. FORECAST DETAILS ON WEDNESDAY ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN;  
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID AND IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK  
UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED TO PRODUCE SOME  
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS, GIVEN THAT MID-LEVEL WINDS ON THE  
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 40 TO 45  
KTS AND PWAT VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2.0 INCHES. IF MLCAPES  
CAN INCREASE TO NEAR OR OVER 1000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY THEN SEVERE  
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN- PRODUCING STORMS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.  
HOWEVER, IF CLOUDS KEEP THE INSTABILITY DOWN WE MAY JUST BE  
LOOKING AT SOME ROUTINE SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER.  
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SPC THEY ARE KEEPING MARGINAL CHANCES  
FOR SEVERE OUT OF OUR AREA FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED.  
WPC IS GOING WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON  
WEDNESDAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD.  
 
HIGH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY  
ASSOCIATED THE TIMING OF THE BACK-EDGE OF THE FORCING FOR LIFT  
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE  
RAIN WILL BE OVER FOR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE LATEST  
12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE LARGE SCALE FORCING OFF TO OUR  
EAST, AND WE WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS GOING FOR  
THURSDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO  
THURSDAY WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM BARRY WILL BE  
DEPARTING TO OUR EAST AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK  
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. A  
STRONG RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW DURING THE LATE  
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND USHERING IN HOT AND MOIST AIR.  
 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM  
BARRY AS IT DEPARTS TO OUR EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SUBTLE  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DIFFUSE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL SWING  
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING ADDITIONAL  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING  
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH  
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUGGESTED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S ON  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY  
AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX  
VALUES BETWEEN 95-105F FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES  
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME REGIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND THIS  
WEEKEND DUE TO THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS,  
THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
DURING THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IF SOME ORGANIZATION ALONG  
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO RELEASE THE INSTABILITY  
AND RESULT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR  
NOW THOUGH, SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN  
THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG COLD  
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING  
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND  
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR A FEW  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY  
EVENING.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. A  
BRIEF WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT  
KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AT KGFL, WHERE  
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MENTIONED. THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF FOG  
AT KPSF, SO WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY THERE.  
 
OTHERWISE, MAINLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE  
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.  
 
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 ON TUESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE  
HUMIDITY LEVELS TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
ARRIVES FOR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT  
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THAT WILL LAST THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.  
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID ON TUESDAY, WITH  
AFTERNOON RH VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 PERCENT.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY TO  
BECOME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS  
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IN  
THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY  
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.  
 
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR  
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY  
DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF BARRY LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD CONTAIN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  
HOWEVER, A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAIN IS THAT MOST OF THE  
REGION HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS. WPC  
HAS PLACED MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DUE TO ANOMALOUS HIGH PWATS AND SOME TRAINING  
OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS. ANY FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE DUE TO LOCALIZED ISSUES ALONG SMALL  
STREAM OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
PLEASE VISIT OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/  
WEB PAGE FOR SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES OBSERVATIONS AND  
FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA  
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA  
SHORT TERM...MSE  
LONG TERM...CEBULKO  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...MSE/BGM  
HYDROLOGY...MSE/BGM  
 
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