681  
FXUS61 KALY 112023  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AFTER A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH HIT AND MISS  
SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RAIN MAY EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS  
IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THE COOL AND  
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND  
WARMER WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
THE AFTERNOON HAS REMAINED UNSEASONABLY CHILLY BETWEEN THE  
CLOUD COVERAGE, BREEZY WINDS SUSTAINED 10 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO  
30KTS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES  
HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR  
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE INCHED INTO THE  
LOW 60S. NYS MESONET AND ASOS SITES SHOW THAT THE INCOMING  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS HAVE ONLY  
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST SINCE THE  
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SEEMS TO BE EVAPORATING THE SHOWERS AS  
THEY DESCEND TOWARDS THE GROUND.  
 
ONCE WE PAST PEAK HEATING AND APPROACH SUNSET, CONVECTIVELY  
DRIVEN CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS THIS  
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, OUR MAIN TROUGH AXIS,  
AS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST GOES16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL SWING  
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH CLOUD  
COVERAGE AND SHOWERS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENHANCE MID-  
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. LATEST  
HIGH RES NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS  
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND  
BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF  
EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 03 UTC  
THROUGH 12 UTC, DUE TO ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITHIN THE  
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. EVEN STILL, OVERALL  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS  
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE COLD  
AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
AREAS LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH OR EVEN BRIEF  
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL  
AND RESERVED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND  
SOUTHERN GREENS LESS THAN 1 INCH.  
 
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL TO MID TO UPPER 30S WITH  
LOW 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND  
BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE ANY FROST FORMATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
BREEZY WEST - NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF  
THE TROUGH AXIS SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOLER THAN  
NORMAL. HOWEVER, A CLOSED HIGH IN THE MIDWEST WILL BE BUILDING  
EASTWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACTUALLY WILL START TO ADVECT IN  
WARMER AIR THAT WILL ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER TOMORROW COMPARED  
TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DESPITE STRONG  
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM, WE WILL STILL WILL BE UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD TROUGH WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY EXITING  
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE, STILL EXPECTING PARTLY TO  
MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES TO MIX WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS WE  
REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. IN ADDITION, HIGH RES GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP IN  
RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND BUT THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACTS AREAS MAINLY  
NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY INCLUDING LAKE GEORGE, WASHINGTON COUNTY,  
THE NORTHERN TACONICS, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. BUFKIT PROFILES  
SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
TROUGH WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING (MUCAPE < 250  
J/KG). THEREFORE, WE FOLLOWED SUITE WITH WFO BOSTON AND ADDED IN  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.  
 
SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY  
BUILDS EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 5 KTS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,  
EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, TACONICS AND HELDERBERGS, WE  
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES  
THAT FROST WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS  
STARTED, WE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER  
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO DISCUSS THIS POTENTIAL.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRONG  
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD  
TOWARDS OUR AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER,  
SUSTAINED GENERALLY ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD  
RESULTING IN A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A BROAD, BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION  
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT  
LIMITED, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY  
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, SO NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAINFALL. THERE  
MAY BE SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE, SO CAN'T RULE OUT  
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS  
FAR OUT. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN PLACE, DAYTIME TEMPS  
SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH  
TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S, SO NO THREAT FOR ANY FROST/FREEZE  
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.  
 
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME RIDGING FOR  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH FORM THE  
MIDWEST. THE TIMING/EXACT TRACK OF THIS NEXT STORM IS STILL  
UNCERTAIN, BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN OR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE  
CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL  
NORMALS FOR MID MAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH-BASED (VFR) STRATOCU ARE THICKENING THIS AFTERNOON AS  
COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES ARE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT  
FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONTINUING. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE  
THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BUT THEY WILL  
EXPAND INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER AROUND 04Z  
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES IN. THESE CLOUDS MAY LOWER TO  
MVFR LEVELS FOR A TIME ROUGHLY 09-13Z (SLIGHTLY LONGER AT KPSF).  
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KPSF ROUGHLY 08-14Z.  
CLOUD BASES WILL RISE AGAIN TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 13-14Z AS  
DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES, WITH SCT-BKN COVERAGE.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS  
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT DIMINISH  
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE  
NORTH/NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH TOMORROW...  
 
AFTER A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS,  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RAIN MAY EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN  
PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THE COOL AND  
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND  
WARMER WEATHER.  
 
MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT RISE TO 80 TO 100  
PERCENT. THEN, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TOMORROW AFTERNOON  
TO A MINIMUM BETWEEN 35 TO 50 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT MAXIMUM  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN REACH TO 85 TO 100  
PERCENT.  
 
WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN AND RISE TO 8  
TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND DROP BELOW 5 KTS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK, RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR  
GRADUALLY FALL.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES,  
INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE  
ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE  
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE  
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE  
LONG TERM...FRUGIS  
AVIATION...THOMPSON  
FIRE WEATHER...SPECIALE  
HYDROLOGY...SPECIALE  
 
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