381  
FXUS61 KALY 042057  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
357 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE  
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
PRECIPITATION COULD START OFF AS A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE  
DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE OUT ABOVE  
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
CLOUDS EXITING AND OUR ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY  
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST  
AND REMAIN QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON  
VALLEY AND NW CT. SO, SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT NEAR CALM OR  
CALM THIS EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL STEADILY. THE  
A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL BEGIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN  
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE  
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY  
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN THOSE AREAS.  
 
LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN NEAR CALM OR CALM ALL NIGHT SHOULD SEE  
TEMPERATURES DROP MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 20S WHERE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AROUND  
20 TO LOWER 20S WHERE WINDS REMAIN NEAR CALM OR CALM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH STEADY  
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO  
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS  
INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER FLOW TURNS  
WEST SOUTH WEST AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND  
INCREASES IN SPEED. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE  
AS DOES MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO  
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK BUT JUST LIGHT AND  
SCATTERED. EVEN SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION THROUGH EASTERN NY BUT  
QUITE ISOLATED THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.  
 
THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION  
SUGGESTS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE ONSET AND A SLIGHT  
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE  
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL TOO MUCH  
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL HAVE  
TO WATCH TRENDS IN DATA AND GUIDANCE AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
STEADY LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS  
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, ALONG WITH THE LOW  
LEVEL JET FORCING, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE  
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL WET BULB PROCESSES COULD MAKE FOR A  
SLOW WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY AND HIGHS MAY BE DURING THE EVENING  
AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY. BY SUNSET, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO  
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THEN IN THE EVENING, TEMPERATURES EITHER  
HOLD STEADY OR WARM A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS  
INCREASE.  
 
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOME  
MID TO UPPER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OR TRACK OF SYSTEMS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT STARTS WITH A SHORT WAVE LEAVING THE  
ROCKIES AND MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE WORK WEEK COMES  
TO AN END. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER  
TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. FROM THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST  
DISCUSSION "THE WPC FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A GFS/ECMWF  
BLEND WITH SOME PREVIOUS WPC CONTINUITY AND 20% ENSEMBLE MEANS  
THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THEN INCREASED USE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG  
WITH SOME PREVIOUS WPC CONTINUITY GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND." THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AN UPPER  
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD WITH AN  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER OVER/NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY  
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE COAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK  
TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN  
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS AT THIS TIME.  
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO  
AROUND 50 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE READINGS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 10TH  
THROUGH 14TH AND ITS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 12TH THROUGH 18TH  
BOTH FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES  
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. SEEING BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-5500 FT ACROSS  
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ERODE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT,  
WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM THAT POINT  
ONWARD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TOMORROW.  
 
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT, WHICH  
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 21-23Z, WINDS TURN TO THE  
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT FOR ALB AND GFL AND AT LESS AT THAN 5 KT FOR  
PSF AND POU THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WINDS AT  
ALL TAF SITES INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTH.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.  
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NAS  
NEAR TERM...NAS  
SHORT TERM...NAS  
LONG TERM...IAA  
AVIATION...MAIN  
 
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