984
FXUS61 KALY 201759
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
LAST OF THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY THE 60S
WITH 50S ABOVE 1500 FEET. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE BACK ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN FOR MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FLOOD WATCH ONLY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ONLY HAMILTON, NORTHERN
SARATOGA, WARREN, WASHINGTON, BENNINGTON, AND WINDHAM COUNTIES.
THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCHES WERE CANCELED AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LAST OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
NOW TO OUR EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THE
UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN TN, WESTERN WV AND SOUTHERN
OH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IT'S FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN. THE SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN PA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
READINGS IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY ARE IN THE 40S. AS OF 1 PM,
GLENS FALLS 46 DEGREES AND ALBANY 68 DEGREES. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
RISING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, EMERGING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC BY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN
VERTICALLY STACKED UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY AND FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH FOR FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BE WEAK. AT THE SAME TIME, LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ALL
POINTS TO A MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD PERIOD THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND. SOME ISOLATED NUISANCE LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT TIMES.
BY MONDAY, GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH RESPECT TO THE PROGRESSION OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS IT EMERGES OFFSHORE AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE ECMWF IS THE MOST ROBUST AND CLOSEST TO THE SHORE WITH THIS
LOW, SUCH THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION REGION OF THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW CAN BE EXPECTED. THE GFS/NAM ARE A BIT
DRIER. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT LIKELY OVER
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, AS THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE, MORE ZONAL FLOW,
WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVES TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INITIAL TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH TIMING WILL BE BETTER REFINED AS THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS
BECOME BETTER SAMPLED AND MODELED.
DUE TO A RELATIVELY HIGH FREQUENCY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR LATE
APRIL, TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S, ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S SHOULD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OCCUR WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF NORTHERN NY AND
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NEAR WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
A LULL IN THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND DUE TO THE DRY SLOT TO THE COMPLEX SYSTEM. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM EASTERN PA AND NJ TOMORROW WITH
AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY MVFR ACROSS KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN TERMS OF
CIGS WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING, AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY
SLOT HAS MOVED IN. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS KGFL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH IFR OR
SPOTTY LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT A TREND TO VFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF BETWEEN 20Z-22Z, WITH SOME PERSISTENT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KGFL UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR CLOUDS AROUND 2-3 KFT AGL. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
TONIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LINGERING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SKIES GO CLEAR SOME PATCHY MIST MAY
BE POSSIBLE NEAR KGFL/KPSF BUT WE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SOME STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE 4-5 KFT AGL RANGE MAY MOVE
INTO KPOU BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS KEPT IN KGFL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 2 KFT AGL WINDS 30-40 KTS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT THE SFC.
THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 8-15 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL
BE COME LIGHTER FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING, AND
LIGHT TO CALM WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL PICK UP AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT
KALB.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
MILD AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD BUT DRIER ON SUNDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE. ANOTHER CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES FOR MONDAY,
BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
HYDROLOGY
FLOOD WATCH ONLY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ONLY HAMILTON, NORTHERN
SARATOGA, WARREN, WASHINGTON, BENNINGTON, AND WINDHAM COUNTIES.
THE REST OF THE FLOOD WATCHES WERE CANCELED AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED IN THOSE AREAS.
THE LAST OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
NOW TO OUR EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE EAST COAST.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND, BUT SOME RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON BASINS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH
FLOODING CONTINUING AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT SOME
RIVER POINTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
MONDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS MOST RECENT
EVENT, WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
PLEASE VISIT OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/
WEB PAGE FOR SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NYZ033-041>043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...IAA/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...IAA/THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...IAA/THOMPSON
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