871  
FXUS61 KALY 170600  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
200 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HOT AND HUMID  
WEATHER ARRIVES MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK  
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD. DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS  
WILL IMPACT MANY VALLEY AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
   
UPDATE
 
AS OF 0145 AM EDT, WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF  
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS, EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING IN SHELTERED  
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND  
EASTERN CATSKILLS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL FAIRLY  
RAPIDLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE WHERE A SOUTHERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE HAS STYMIED COOLING. AN INCREASING BREEZE  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDING FARTHER EAST AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL  
LIMIT ADDITIONAL COOLING, WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AT  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  
CHANCES FOR PATCHY RADIATION FOG ARE DECREASING AS CLOUDS AND  
WINDS INCREASE AS WELL. AS SUCH, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK; SEE  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...  
   
PREVIOUS
 
A 1025 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST  
OF NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVEL  
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT WITH STRONG RIDGING  
BUILDING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST. A  
SFC WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID  
ATLANTIC STATES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. THERE IS A  
SMALL CHANCE SOME LOWER STRATUS MOVES IN SOUTH AND EAST OF  
CAPITAL REGION. SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH THE SCT-BKN MID AND  
HIGH CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.  
 
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME POCKETS OF UPPER  
40S POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR ALL  
OF SOUTHERN VT, AND EASTERN NY EXCLUDING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS, AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...  
 
TOMORROW WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AS THE  
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL  
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE LATEST NAEFS SHOWS H500/H700  
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE WARM FRONT AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE. SFC  
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S OVER  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WERE  
ACCEPTED CLOSE THE LATEST EC/GFS MOS BLEND WITH MID AND UPPER  
80S IN THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW ISOLATED 90F READINGS, AND MID 70S  
TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES STAY BELOW  
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 95F OR LESS.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUGGIER AND MUCH MORE HUMID COMPARED TO  
PAST FEW NIGHT, AS THE RIDE STRENGTHENS ALOFT. THE SKIES WILL BE  
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS, AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE  
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS.  
 
TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RAMP UP.  
H850 TEMPS ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF INCREASE TO +18C TO +21C. THE  
H850 TEMP ANOMALIES ARE +1 TO +3 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP IN THE 60S  
TO NEAR 70F. HEAT INDICES IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, MOHAWK  
VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEYS RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S.  
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS WAS TO GO WITH  
HEAT ADVISORIES TUE AND EXTEND THROUGH THU WITH POSSIBLE  
UPGRADES TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS FOR CERTAIN AREAS WED AND  
THU. RECORD MAXES COULD BE ACHIEVED IN SOME LOCATIONS (SEE THE  
CLIMO SECTION BELOW). ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THREAT SHOULD  
BE CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK PARK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WITH A  
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE TERRAIN  
COULD ALLOW FOR A POP-UP CONVECTIVE CELL OR TWO. MAX TEMPS WERE  
FROM AN ECM ENSEMBLE MOS/NBM BLEND WITH LOWER AND MID 90S BELOW  
1000 FT IN ELEVATIONS AND MID 80S TO NEAR 90F OVER THE HILLS  
TOWNS AND MTNS.  
 
A BALMY AND MUGGY NIGHT WILL OCCUR TUE NIGHT WITH MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S FOR LOW TEMPS WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST  
FIRMLY IN PLACE. IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE PEAK HOT DAYS OF THE HEAT WITH  
596-597 DECAMETER HEIGHTS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY HAVE  
TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, MOHAWK VALLEY,  
UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, LAKE GEORGE REGION AND THE CT RIVER  
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN VT TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS WITH HEAT  
INDICES HOVERING NEAR 105F. DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL  
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WHERE THE ADVISORIES ARE OUT.  
WE MAY HAVE TO ADD IN LITCHFIELD CO INCLUDING THE HILLS TO THE  
ADVISORIES AND PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES IF HEAT INDICES HIT  
100F OR SO, OR IT IS THE 2ND DAY OF 95-99F. THE NBM NUMBERS LOOK  
A LITTLE WARM WITH H850 TEMPS ARE AROUND 20C. WE COULD SEE SOME  
UPPER 90S, BUT LOCAL WIND EFFECTS MAY BE NEEDED. WE HAVE HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 90S (97-98F IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT, THE  
CT RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY). THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. MOST THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE 90S. WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS POP- UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT  
WILL BE IMPORTANT TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED IF OUTSIDE ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF  
SOUTHERN VT, AND EASTERN NY EXCLUDING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS, AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...  
 
HEAT WILL CONTINUE A BIT LONGER INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH  
A STRONG 500 HPA UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC  
PEAKING AROUND 598 DM (+2 TO +3 STDEV). THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE  
HOTTER DAY OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS  
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 850 HPA  
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE AROUND +20C. EVEN  
ACCOUNTING FOR SOME SUPERADIABATIC MIXING, HIGHS MAY REACH THE  
MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE VALLEYS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S  
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHILE SOME LOCALIZED VALLEY AREAS  
COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES, THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO  
FORECAST A TEMPERATURE THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAT  
INDEX VALUES (FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES) IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER  
100S IN THE VALLEYS WITH SOME UPPER 80S TO LOCALIZED MID-90S  
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
SOME VALLEY AREAS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AN UPGRADE TO AN  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS IF  
CONFIDENCE ON HEAT INDICES OF 105 F OR GREATER INCREASES. LITTLE  
RELIEF WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS  
IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING FRONT NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER COULD  
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE HIGH,  
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
DROPPING SOUTHWARD SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH, HEAT INDICES MAY STILL REACH THE  
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS ON FRIDAY AND TRENDS WILL  
BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME  
THROUGH 06 UTC TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS PERHAPS A SMALL WINDOW  
STARTING AT 08-09 TO 11 UTC WHEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AT PSF  
AND POU THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ADVECTING MARINE MOISTURE  
INLAND. WHILE WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT  
GFL OVERNIGHT SINCE THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ARE QUITE CLOSE,  
THE EXPANSIVE CIRRUS DECK SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SO WE  
HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE  
MONITORING SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEED AS WE APPROACH THE  
PRE-DAWNS.  
 
ANY EARLY FOG/LOWER CIGS WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14 UTC WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THEREAFTER. EXPECTING THE BLANK OF CIRRUS  
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY 17-19 UTC RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES.  
 
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT ALB OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED AROUND 5-  
10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-17KTS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT OR  
LESS THAN 5KTS AT PSF, POU AND GFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AT ALL  
TERMINALS BY 13-14 UTC BECOMING SUSTAINED 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO  
15KTS. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02-03 UTC/18 AT ALL  
TERMINALS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT TO THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:  
 
TUESDAY JUNE 18:  
ALBANY - 97 (1957, 2018)  
GLENS FALLS - 95 (1907)  
POUGHKEEPSIE - 94 (2018)  
 
WEDNESDAY JUNE 19:  
ALBANY - 94 (1995)  
GLENS FALLS - 97 (1995)  
POUGHKEEPSIE - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)  
 
THURSDAY JUNE 20:  
ALBANY - 97 (1953)  
GLENS FALLS - 97 (1923)  
POUGHKEEPSIE - 96 (2012)  
 
FRIDAY JUNE 21:  
ALBANY - 97 (1938)  
GLENS FALLS - 96 (2012)  
POUGHKEEPSIE - 97 (1949)  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
NYZ038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
VTZ013>015.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...MAIN/PICARD/WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...RATHBUN  
AVIATION...SPECIALE  
CLIMATE...RATHBUN  
 
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