393  
FXUS61 KALY 311657  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1257 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER  
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER  
RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ACROSS OUR  
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, LABOR DAY. A PIECE OF THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY WILL DRIFT  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CLOSE OFF. IN ADDITION, AN  
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRIFT  
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THE  
RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TODAY AND 70S TO AROUND 80 ON MONDAY.  
LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 40S TO MID  
50S.  
 
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ON  
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND OVERHEAD  
WHICH COULD INCREASE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR  
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AREAS  
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER  
SEASONABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S TO  
AROUND 80. THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY  
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD BRINGING ANOTHER DRY AND  
SEASONABLE DAY TO THE AREA.  
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES  
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST  
AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE  
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST  
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH  
TIMING, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAINFALL AS THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR  
OVER 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT WITH  
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT.  
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE  
MID-60S TO MID-70S ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A FEW  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH  
AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER TO MID-70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED FOR THE  
TERMINALS FOR THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO  
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL AS  
PATCHY FOG/MIST DEVELOPS IN THE TERMINAL VICINITY AFTER MIDNIGHT,  
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES. MIST/FOG WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPSF, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE  
TERMINALS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO  
TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN  
DISCUSSION...RATHBUN  
AVIATION...SPECK  
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