381
FXUS61 KALY 042057
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION COULD START OFF AS A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE OUT ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS EXITING AND OUR ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. SO, SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT NEAR CALM OR
CALM THIS EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL STEADILY. THE
A LIGHT SOUTH WIND WILL BEGIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK IN THOSE AREAS.
LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN NEAR CALM OR CALM ALL NIGHT SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WHERE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND AROUND
20 TO LOWER 20S WHERE WINDS REMAIN NEAR CALM OR CALM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH STEADY
SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOME 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS
INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER FLOW TURNS
WEST SOUTH WEST AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASES IN SPEED. WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
AS DOES MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK BUT JUST LIGHT AND
SCATTERED. EVEN SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION THROUGH EASTERN NY BUT
QUITE ISOLATED THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE ONSET AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS IN DATA AND GUIDANCE AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
STEADY LOW LEVEL WARMING AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, ALONG WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET FORCING, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL WET BULB PROCESSES COULD MAKE FOR A
SLOW WARMING THROUGH TUESDAY AND HIGHS MAY BE DURING THE EVENING
AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY. BY SUNSET, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THEN IN THE EVENING, TEMPERATURES EITHER
HOLD STEADY OR WARM A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM AND SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE.
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND SOME
MID TO UPPER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OR TRACK OF SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT STARTS WITH A SHORT WAVE LEAVING THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE WORK WEEK COMES
TO AN END. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. FROM THEIR EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION "THE WPC FORECAST WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND WITH SOME PREVIOUS WPC CONTINUITY AND 20% ENSEMBLE MEANS
THROUGH THURSDAY, AND THEN INCREASED USE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG
WITH SOME PREVIOUS WPC CONTINUITY GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND." THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER EASTWARD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER OVER/NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE COAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO GO WITH HIGHER POPS AT THIS TIME.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE READINGS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 10TH
THROUGH 14TH AND ITS 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 12TH THROUGH 18TH
BOTH FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SEEING BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000-5500 FT ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ERODE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT,
WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TOMORROW.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT, WHICH
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 21-23Z, WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH AT 5-10 KT FOR ALB AND GFL AND AT LESS AT THAN 5 KT FOR
PSF AND POU THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...MAIN
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