269
FXUS61 KALY 231144
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAT SOME
CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THE WINTER HEAD LINES WITH LIGHTER SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND
WEST. THE POWERFUL NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SHIFTING THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT FURTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN SARATOGA, FULTON, MONTGOMERY, SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON HAVE BEEN CANCELED WITH SNOW ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO
A FEW INCHES ONLY EXPECTED NOW.
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, SCHOHARIE
VALLEY, NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND HELDERBERGS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS TO PARTS OF THE AREA
TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES, AND POSSIBLE DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.
2) A CLIPPER TYPE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING THE COMMUTE.
3) ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY COULD BRING LIGHT TO
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BOMBOGENESIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR WITH THE COASTAL LOW EARLY THIS
MORNING SOUTHEAST OF NJ WITH THE LATEST RAP MSLP OF 984 HPA. THE
STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO
CLOSE TO 970 HPA IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED NEAR THE
DELMARVA REGION WITH THE H500 CIRCULATION CLOSING OFF. THE TRACK
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST HAS HURT THE NORTH AND WEST
EXPANSION OF THE SNOW SHIELD IN THE ALY FORECAST AREA. THIS
TREND STARTED WITH THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE YESTERDAY AND
CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z CAMS/ENSEMBLES/NBM/DETERMINISTIC NWP
GUIDANCE.
PIVOTING SNOWBANDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE POTENT STORM BENEATH THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS PER THE CSTAR
COOL SEASON RESEARCH. THE BANDS HAVE IMPACTED THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. SOME OF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE HAS MADE
IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN TACONICS
AND SOUTHERN VT. THE LATEST HREFS SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5"/HR FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID
HUDSON VALLEY, NORTH-CENTRAL TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND
EAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING. THE 1"/HR PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM
30-80%. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS NORTHWEST CT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE REDUCED TO A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION, SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CO. AND THE WEST-
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND WE DROPPED THE WINTER WX ADVISORIES.
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON COUNTY
COULD GET 2-3" OR SO, BUT EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING COULD HURT THE
AMOUNTS. THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, NORTHERN
CATSKILLS AND THE HELDERBERGS WERE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE TRACK AND THE BEST BANDING STAYING SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2-6" WITH
MAYBE A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE HELDERBERGS. THE TRI CITIES
WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY 2-4". IT WAS TRICKY WHAT TO DO IN SOUTHERN
VT AND EASTERN RENSSELAER COUNTY WITH THE SHARP SNOWFALL
GRADIENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BENNINGTON COUNTY COULD STILL
GET 7" OR MORE, AND THE EASTERN SLOPES SHOULD STILL GET 5-10".
THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE WITH THE LOW PULLING AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COULD BENEFIT THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND BENNINGTON
COUNTY IN THE LATE MORNING/PM. WE STAYED WITH THE WARNINGS IN
THESE AREAS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HOW EFFICIENT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION SNOWFALL IS AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE OR
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE COULD HELP SNOW
TOTALS LATER TODAY.
THE MAJOR IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-90 AND THE CAPITAL REGION. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT
15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH...AND EVEN SOME GUST 40-50
MPH OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. BLIZZARD CONDITONS ARE 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS
OF FALLING OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS 35
MPH WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LESS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE FOR THESE 3 COUNTIES. GREENE,
COLUMBIA AND BERKSHIRE COUNTIES MAY HAVE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
OUR UPDATED FORECAST LOWERED TOTALS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS TO 8-12" WITH SOME HIGH PEAKS 12-18" WITH THE TRACK
SHIFT. 8-12" IS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE COMMON FOR EASTERN
GREENE, COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. THE SWEET SPOT
FOR THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHERN TACONICS, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN
NW CT WITH 12-18" OF SNOW. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 18" ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST
MOST OF THE MORNING, AND START TO TAPER IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAMS (3-KM HRRR AND NAMNEST) SUPPORTED
THESE TRENDS. IN FACT, THE HEADLINES MAY BE DROPPED A LITTLE
EARLIER WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY (EARLY PM) WITH THE
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MID TO LATE PM. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW SUPPORT HOLDING THE WINTER HEADLINES UNTIL 7 PM FOR NOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE STRONG
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
IN THE PM TO EVENING AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH. LOWS
FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE
FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 TO 15F BELOW ZERO OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
WHITEOUT AND IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TODAY. THE STRONG
WINDS SHOULD KEEP PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW INTO TONIGHT.
THE WETTER SNOW SOUTH OF ALBANY, COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS,
MAY RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES
AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MAINLY 20S IN THE MAJOR VALLEYS. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD
OF A CLIPPER AND ITS WARM FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
FOR SNOW TO BREAK OUT TUE NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN THE SNOWFALL WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED BUT A
WIDESPREAD 1-3" SNOWFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE, AS THE CLIPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE REGION ON WED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND SOUTHWEST DACKS. BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS WARM IN TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS WED
PM BEFORE THE COLD FRONT AND WAVE MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON WED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A FEW
TENTHS TO A FEW INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE
WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE STORM
TRACK, WHICH GENERALLY PLACES OUR AREA ON THE COLDER SIDE. THERE ARE
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS(MAINLY GFS) THAT INDICATE A TRACK OVER OUR
AREA, BUT MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND AI GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A COLDER SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF OUR REGION. WENT CLOSE TO NBM FOR NOW, WHICH HAS
LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY AND CHANCE POPS
NORTH/WEST. WILL MENTION SNOW AS MAIN PRECIP TYPE FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE OF SOME SORT OF WINTRY
MIX IF THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS NORTH. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE/QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF IS EXPECTED. LATEST
NBM 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE FOR > 2" OF SNOW
AND A 25-50% CHANCE FOR > 4" OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN WINTER DRIVING IMPACTS FOR THE
FRI MORNING COMMUTE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO
BRING SNOW TO MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BE AT KPOU/KPSF WHERE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY WILL OCCUR AT KALB THROUGH
AROUND 15Z, THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR AS
WELL. KGFL SHOULD REMAIN VFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE SO WILL ONLY MENTION PROB30 THERE AS MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST AROUND 18Z-20Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR.
HOWEVER, BLOWING SNOW WILL LOWER VSBY AT KPOU/KPSF AFTER THE
SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN AT ALL SITES TONIGHT.
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ063>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ054-
058>061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ047>053.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07/15
AVIATION...07
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