491  
FXUS61 KALY 171038  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
638 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN  
SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL  
MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERTURES DROPPING NEAR  
OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 638 AM EDT...FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS  
LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND IS HEADED EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR  
AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED  
OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW  
YORK THIS MORNING. THE FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AHEAD OF  
THIS SYSTEM IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH IS PICKING UP SOME  
MOISTURE OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AIDED BY UPSLOPE, SOME  
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE  
MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LOOK TO BE  
JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP (SURFACE  
TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE NYS MESONET ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW  
40S). UPSTREAM RADAR ESTIMATES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW  
THIS PRECIP TO BE VERY LIGHT, SO ONLY EXPECTING UNDER A TENTH OF  
AN INCH THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR  
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS, SKIES ARE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CLEAR  
OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS  
THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. BY AROUND NOON, THIS  
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK. 3KM HRRR SUGGEST A  
BROKEN BAND OF FAST-MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE AHEAD/ALONG THIS  
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT (500 HPA U-WINDS ARE ABOUT 3-4  
STD ABOVE NORMAL), CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS BE  
TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE LOCALLY HEAVIER  
SHOWERS. SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 35-45 MPH WITHIN AND IMMEDIATELY  
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TREE  
DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES. THESE WINDS WOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY  
THRESHOLD, BUT WILL MENTION RISK FOR LOCALIZED ISSUES WITHIN THE  
HWO AND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE COULD BE  
A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (MAINLY FOR UPSLOPE AND  
LAKE-ENHANCED AREAS), WHICH P-TYPE PERHAPS MIXING WITH SNOW  
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  
 
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S TO  
MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD BE  
THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE  
FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO START TO FALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE  
SOME GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE COLD AIR  
ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER THE  
REGION TONIGHT, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS FALLING TO -9 TO -12 DEGREES  
C, ABOUT 2 TO 3 STD BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. EVEN WITH THE  
GUSTY WINDS REMAINING PLACE, MANY VALLEY AREAS WITHIN THE HUDSON  
VALLEY WILL BE SEEING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON (ABOUT A  
WEEK OR SO LATER THAN THE AVERAGE MEDIAN DATE FOR FIRST FALL  
FREEZE). THE UNIQUE (AND FAIRLY UNUSUAL) ASPECT IS THAT THIS  
WILL BE AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE AND MOST FIRST FREEZES ARE USUALLY  
DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT OF THE WIND, ACTUAL  
FROST FORMATION COULD BE LIMITED IN SOME AREAS, BUT WITH TEMPS  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S, HAVE INCLUDED ALL OF  
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND S. LITCHFIELD WITHIN A FREEZE WARNING,  
WHICH WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THESE AREAS. THE ONLY AREA  
THAT COULD BE MARGINAL IS RIGHT ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER NEAR THE  
POUGHKEEPSIE-HIGHLAND AREA, BUT EVEN THERE, TEMPS SHOULD BE  
RATHER CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK.  
 
IN ADDITION, A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO  
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIALLY,  
THE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT  
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE MOHAWK VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE  
FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH  
EASTWARD AND THE BAND WILL BE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL NY  
TOWARDS SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AS THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF, P-TYPE WILL SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.  
AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT (SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY JUST  
BE A HALF INCH OR LESS AND LIMITED MAINLY TO COLDER NON-PAVED  
AND GRASSY SURFACES). BEST ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO OCCUR BEFORE  
MIDNIGHT, AS THE SHIFTING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTER FETCH  
OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY  
INTO THE REGION.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE-EFFECT BAND, SKY COVER WILL BE DECREASING  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM THE  
LOW 20S TO THE LOW 30S.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH ALL OFF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY  
NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE  
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR  
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN  
PLACE TO KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND FOR THURSDAY, WITH SOME  
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH WITHIN DAYTIME MIXING.  
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH  
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID  
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA (ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).  
SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH THE MOST  
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.  
 
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD, WARM ADVECTION ON  
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY MORNING,  
BRINGING MILDER TEMPS ALOFT TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST SPOTS ON  
FRIDAY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.  
 
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE NEXT  
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FEW  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRI NIGHT,  
MAINLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM, TEMPS WON'T  
FALL TOO MUCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO  
UPPER 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE  
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.  
 
SATURDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER IT WILL BE  
UNSETTLED AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION BRINGING  
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE  
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECTING HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY  
NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, RAIN AND SNOW, WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT  
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.  
 
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY AND BRISK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO RISE.  
EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WHICH IS AROUND 15  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY  
IN THE 20S AND 30S MUCH OF THE DAY.  
 
SHORT WAVES WILL MAINTAIN THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, CLOUDS  
DOMINATING AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY  
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  
 
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WITH  
THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY THE MID AFTERNOON.  
SOME SHOWERS WILL AS THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH LAKE ENHANCED  
SHOWERS OCCURRING OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISHING.  
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED AND ALSO BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE  
20S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME STRONGER WITH  
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE TEENS AND  
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT  
KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A FEW  
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 55 TO 75  
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH, BUT WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AT 10 TO  
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL  
RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT WITH SOME FROST  
DEVELOPMENT. RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON  
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY, BUT THIS FRONT  
WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AND WON'T PRODUCE MUCH RAIN  
SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY,  
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL  
BE VERY LIGHT.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY  
SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL  
GENERALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
CTZ013.  
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR  
NYZ041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...IAA  
AVIATION...IAA  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS  
 
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