552  
FXUS61 KALY 080018  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
818 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT AND REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM A  
SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL. HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE INTO  
TOMORROW, THOUGH OPPRESSIVE HEAT, AFTER TODAY, IS NOT LIKELY  
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR  
MOST WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK  
AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ENSUES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST  
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TOMORROW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING  
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
- ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL HAVE THE  
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD  
LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS THE LINE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY HAS BECOME  
OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION QUICKLY  
DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING  
ACROSS THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HEAT  
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL  
THIS EVENING.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE  
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING POSITIONED JUST TO OUR  
SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE  
PERTURBATIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, BECOMING  
STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATEST CAMS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY  
PUSHING FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH, THEREFORE KEEPING MOST OF THE  
CONVECTION ALSO TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO TIMING  
DISCREPANCIES IN THE LATEST CAMS WITH SOME SHOWING CONVECTION  
DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OTHERS NOT UNTIL EARLY TO  
THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AROUND, IT  
COULD BE HARD FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT WITH  
SIMILAR INDICES AROUND IN COMPARISON TO TODAY, THE SPC  
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW FOR  
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. STRONG TO LOCALLY  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH  
WITH EVEN MORE MOISTURE AROUND THAN TODAY COURTESY OF THE  
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WITHIN CLOSER REACH, THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SUBSEQUENT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  
IS ARGUABLY A GREATER THREAT THAN GUSTY WINDS.  
 
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE STALLED  
BOUNDARY REMAINING RELATIVELY STAGNANT, THOUGH ITS SLIGHT SHIFT  
SOUTHWARD, PAIRED WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING INTO A  
BRIEF ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL QUICKLY PUT AN END TO ANY  
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION. DRY CONDITIONS, ONCE REINFORCED, WILL  
THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER  
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THREATENS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WILL GRADUALLY  
LOWER, BECOMING MUCH LESS COMFORTABLE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY  
DWINDLES AS WELL. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND MUGGIEST DAY  
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S AND HEAT  
INDICES GRACING THE 90S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST  
NEW ENGLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN TERMS OF  
AIR TEMPERATURE WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY BEFORE THURSDAY "COOLS"  
TO THE MID 70S TO LOW AND POSSIBLY MID 80S. LOWS OVER THE PERIOD  
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT TO  
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM A  
CLOSED LOW OVERHEAD WILL FORCE THE CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD,  
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ALONG THE  
LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL  
ALLOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS  
TO DEPART TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH TRACKS  
ALONG THE LONG ISLAND COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING  
THROUGH SATURDAY ATOP HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, REINFORCING  
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
BUT TRANQUILITY WILL NOT BE LONG LASTING AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL  
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THREATEN TO BRING BACK  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY.  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THOUGH CONTAINING ITS FAIR SHARE OF LESS  
THAN IDEAL WEATHER CONDITIONS, DOES LOOK TO PASS BY WITHOUT THE  
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. HIGHS  
WILL GENERALLY SPAN THE 70S AND 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S  
AND 60S. AND WHILE THE EXPECTED WET WEATHER WILL MAINTAIN A  
MOIST AIRMASS, DEWPOINTS DO NOT LOOK TO REACH THE ANOMALOUS  
LEVELS THEY HAVE RECENTLY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THROUGH 00Z/WED...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THE TAF SITES  
THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY KPOU/KPSF); OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS TRENDING TO  
MVFR LEVELS. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD  
ALSO FORM. CIGS RETURN TO VFR LEVELS TUESDAY MORNING. BEST  
SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT KPOU WHERE A PROB30  
WAS INCLUDED BETWEEN 20-24Z/TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING  
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN MAINLY WEST TO  
NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY (EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL).  
 
OUTLOOK...  
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...GANT/RATHBUN  
SHORT TERM...GANT/RATHBUN  
LONG TERM...GANT  
AVIATION...MAIN/RATHBUN  
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