305
FXUS61 KALY 071037
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY, TRANQUIL, AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE AS OF 6:37 AM EDT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MODEST MIXING (MOMENTUM XFER
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800-850 MB) WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE
A RUN INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES,
DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVERAGE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECAST TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 3:32 AM EDT...
QUIESCENT WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TODAY THANKS TO A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE CATSKILLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN CONNECTION TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER,
AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED
OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW TO
MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT DUE TO THE
ATMOSPHERE BEING MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT FORCING, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THAT SAID,
THERE COULD BE A STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 80S ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO 70S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS).
BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
REINFORCED INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD 1024 MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
PLEASANT WEEKEND AHEAD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS UNDER CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS (UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80F ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS). OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS (MID 40S TO NEAR 50F HIGHER
ELEVATIONS). DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS). SATURDAY NIGHT,
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE (PWAT ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV). SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT
IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS (DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S). HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
COAST. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THOUGH SINCE THE AIR MASS IS STARTING OUT SO
ANOMALOUSLY DRY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO FALL AS A RESULT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS WITH TIMING OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AND WILL MENTION SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION (DEPENDING ON TIMING). SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TIMING DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT, BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROBUST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IF
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST IN
THE LOW LEVELS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES, DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR TODAY, WITH
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
PERSISTENT CIGS AT KPOU/KPSF, WHERE BKN COVERAGE IS MENTIONED.
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCT AT KGFL/KALB TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF BKN CIGS MAY OCCUR. EITHER WAY, CIG HEIGHTS WILL BE AT
VFR LEVELS.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
AT KPOU/KPSF, WHERE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED.
EVEN LOWER CIGS AT IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
FRIDAY, BUT WILL NOT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF JUST YET. SOME
STRATUS MAY REACH TO KALB, BUT CIG HEIGHTS ARE UNCERTAIN THAT FAR
NORTH. AT KGFL, THICKER CLOUDS MAY NOT DEVELOP THERE SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR CALM, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 3-
6 KT BY LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
MAINLY DRY, TRANQUIL, AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
THIS AFTERNOON, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40-70% WITH THE LOWEST VALUES LOCATED OVER THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TONIGHT,
MAXIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 85-100%. ON FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40-65%. FRIDAY NIGHT, MAXIMUM RH VALUES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 75-100%. FOR SATURDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 30-45%. SATURDAY NIGHT, MAXIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 60-100% WITH THE LOWEST VALUES LOCATED SOUTH OF I-90 AND THE
HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF I-90.
TODAY, CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
MAGNITUDES OF 5 KTS OR LESS. TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS. ON FRIDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AT
LESS THAN 5 KTS. ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KTS. SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TREND TOWARDS CALM.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE ALBANY HSA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN
THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COME
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN
RECENT DAYS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN, AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS NEXT
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION.
THE FORECAST FOR AREA RIVERS, STREAM, CREEKS, AND RESERVOIRS CALLS
FOR LEVELS TO REMAIN BY AND LARGE BELOW ACTION STAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EVBUOMA
NEAR TERM...EVBUOMA
SHORT TERM...EVBUOMA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...EVBUOMA
HYDROLOGY...EVBUOMA
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