421  
FXUS61 KALY 152338  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
738 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO  
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE  
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 738 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT A  
FEW SHOWERS TO SOME SPOTS NORTH OR ALBANY EARLIER, IS NOW MOVING  
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.  
 
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIP  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA AND SOUTHERN NY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FETCH OF MOISTURE IS  
MEAGER. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS PLACED ACROSS THE  
REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT AGAIN A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND  
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL YIELD MAINLY  
LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR SO  
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND I-90 SOUTHWARD.  
 
LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS MORNING, BUT STILL UPPER 40S TO  
AROUND 50 OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE REGION AND  
SOUTHERN VT, AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
TOMORROW...THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE  
I-90 CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES  
SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL  
BE LIGHT AGAIN WHERE THE SHOWERS OCCUR. AN INCREASE TO MORE SUN  
THAN CLOUDS OCCURS BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURS  
IN THE WAKE OF THE THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE  
VALLEYS, AND 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. IDEAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S  
WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND SOUTHERN GREENS.  
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST WILL FORM OVER OR NEAR BODIES OF WATER.  
PATCHES OF FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO IN THE NORTHERN ZONES.  
 
TUE TO WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY  
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE NIGHT. THE SFC  
ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE  
NORTHEAST. THE H500 FLOW WILL AMPLIFY WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES  
TUE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WED FOR MID SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH AN  
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING ACROSS  
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GEFS IS FORECASTING 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF  
+1 TO +2 STDEV THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD ENDING  
SUNDAY.  
 
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE,  
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE AIR MASS  
GRADUALLY WARMS. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE  
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN, GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF  
INDICATING TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL OFF AT NIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE  
40S AND 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO NEAR NORMAL PWATS AND  
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. DUE TO LENGTHENING NIGHTS, AREAS OF FOG  
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO  
MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR,  
WITH MID LEVEL CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING DURING THIS TIME. WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF, WITH MENTION OF VCSH.  
DUE TO LATER ARRIVAL, PLACED A PROB30 AT KPOU FROM 12Z-18Z  
MONDAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.  
SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTH.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.  
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIR WEATHER AND  
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL  
BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MID WEEK.  
 
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY  
MORNING, AND LOWER TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND  
THEN INCREASE 85 TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING WITH DEW AND FOG  
FORMATION.  
 
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT, AND  
THEN BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA  
/HSA/ THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  
 
THERE ARE SOME ABNORMALLY DRY AREAS IN THE ALY HSA BASED ON THE  
MOST RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR...AND THEIR IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF  
DRY WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA  
HYDROLOGY...WASULA  
 
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