584  
FXUS61 KALY 110633  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
233 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL  
BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST  
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER  
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON THE  
WEEKEND. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON  
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS  
MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR VALLEY  
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
AS OF 233 AM EDT...  
 
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF GRADUALLY IN THE MID TO  
LATE MORNING, AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM  
SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT IS HUNG UP NEAR W-CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. A  
SFC TROUGH OF WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE  
LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE LATEST 00Z HREFS HAS  
MEAN SBCAPES IN THE 1000-1500+ J/KG RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL  
REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-25 KT. PWATS  
WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.75" RANGE AGAIN. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED  
MULTI-CELLS MAY DEVELOP BASED ON THE LATEST 3-KM  
HRRR/NAMNEST/ARW-WRF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED  
DAMAGING WINDS FROM PCPN LOADING AND DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT  
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK.  
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH RELATIVELY  
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES 1-2"/HR. BEST  
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN CATSKILLS  
AND SOUTHERN VT SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES  
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 85-90F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS, AND  
UPPER 70S TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES WILL  
BE MAINLY BELOW 95F, AS FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL NICK THE MID  
90S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL  
WERE USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED PRODUCTS. SPC DROPPED THE MARGINAL  
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY,  
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL OCCURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WEAKEN  
AND GET HUNG UP OVER THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING FOR  
SOME REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY  
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO  
AROUND 70F.  
 
MID AN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND  
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SATURDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND  
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FOCUS SOME AFTERNOON SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NBM HAD LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL  
POPS. WE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND LOWERED INTO THE  
CHANCE CATEGORY. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS WEAK AT LESS THAN 20  
KT. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MEAN SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000  
J/KG RANGE BASED ON THE HREFS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP  
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST, BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR  
MAYBE A ROGUE SEVERE THREAT AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID  
70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID AND UPPER 80S  
IN THE VALLEYS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE  
MAINLY BELOW 95F IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.  
 
ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF THE  
DIURNAL HEATING, AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO ABOUT 70F  
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN BRIEFLY.  
 
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT  
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
SUNDAY PM INTO THE EVENING. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE  
USED WEST OF LAKE GEORGE AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY PM  
WITH CHANCE VALUES ALONG AND TO THE EAST. THE TIMING OF THE  
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT VARIES ON THE GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE TOWARDS  
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS NEBULOUS HOW MUCH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, AS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY HAVE  
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INCREASING SHEAR. SOME HEAT INDICES IN  
THE MID 90S MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY, IF  
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WILL  
BE COMMON BELOW 1000 FT IN ELEVATION AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S  
ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. THE PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE FRONT MAY  
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WPC CONTINUES A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD  
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS FOR SATURDAY. LOWS  
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70F.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS  
WED-THU FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND  
100F.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS WARM AND HUMID WITH ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED  
HEATING MAY PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. MAX TEMPS MAY BE  
HELD DOWN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON MONDAY DUE TO  
CLOUDS AND PCPN. MID 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS.  
THE SHOWERS/T-STORMS END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A DRYING TREND AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A MINOR RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR  
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S.  
 
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH  
AND WEST TUE INTO WED, AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE  
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE MID WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM  
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL  
YIELD HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90F ON TUE. THE HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK IN WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL  
MIDWEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES DUE  
TO COMBINATION OF MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN  
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MAY REACH IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER  
100S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE  
NEEDED LATER IN TIME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR AT ALB/POU TO MVFR  
AT PSF/GFL AS OF 1:05 AM EDT. WITH RAIN LAST EVENING AT GFL, PERIODS  
OF FOG WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNRISE. AT ALB, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF  
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FOR  
A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. AT POU, PATCHY STRATUS LOOKS MORE  
LIKELY, WITH MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS EXPECTED. CIGS LOOK TO BE NEAR  
1000 FT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR  
SOME IFR CIGS HERE. AT PSF, LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AT  
PSF ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR WITHIN A COUPE HOURS, THEN IMPROVE  
BACK TO LOW-END MVFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
THIS MORNING, ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS DISSIPATES BY EARLY TO MID-  
MORNING, WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM LOOKS TO BE AT POU, WHERE A  
PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT ALB/PSF, ONLY  
INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS TIME, AND WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING FOR GFL AS  
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER/STORM ARE LOWEST THERE. STORMS DISSIPATE  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z  
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE  
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT 3-5 KT TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT TODAY  
THEN DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET THIS  
EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...WASULA  
AVIATION...MAIN  
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