234
FXUS61 KALY 250207
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1007 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. SEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
UPDATE
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED FROM ALBANY
EASTWARD, LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AS
WELL, SO TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
LATE THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS[0735]
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A SMALL AREA FROM
AROUND ALBANY EASTWARD INTO THE RENSSELAER PLATEAU AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND THE LOSS OF HEATING. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING. FOG WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL FEEL CHILLY TO SOME
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THEN
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SOME AS IT HEADS INTO
OUR REGION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE 60S ABOVE THAT. MILDER
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BELOW 1500 FEET
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ABOVE THAT. COOLER SUNDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WITH 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. COOLER AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 DEGREES IN
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING,
DEEPENING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. BY FRIDAY, THIS TROUGH WILL CUT-
OFF INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THEN, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR, DRY WEATHER. WE MAY CONTEND
WITH SOME SHOWERS BY FRIDAY, PENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID-
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S,
EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND UPPER 30S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
PATCHES OF STRATOCU AT VFR LEVELS MAY MOVE ACROSS KALB, BUT
SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR, RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT USUAL SITES KGFL/KPSF,
ALTHOUGH FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR AT KALB/KPOU SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z SATURDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
FAIR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
THE ONLY FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT IS FOR BROOKFIELD ON THE STILL
RIVER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SO RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
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