305  
FXUS61 KALY 071037  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
637 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAINLY DRY, TRANQUIL, AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A STRAY  
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RUN NEAR  
SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
UPDATE AS OF 6:37 AM EDT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MODEST MIXING (MOMENTUM XFER  
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800-850 MB) WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MAKE  
A RUN INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS  
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES,  
DEWPOINTS, AND SKY COVERAGE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND  
FORECAST TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS  
DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 3:32 AM EDT...  
 
QUIESCENT WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED  
TODAY THANKS TO A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. CAN'T  
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE CATSKILLS LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN CONNECTION TO A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
TO OUR SOUTH.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE  
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER,  
AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL BE  
PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED  
OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW TO  
MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT DUE TO THE  
ATMOSPHERE BEING MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH THE LACK OF  
SUFFICIENT FORCING, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THAT SAID,  
THERE COULD BE A STRAY/ISOLATED SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE  
DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
IN THE 80S ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO 70S HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS).  
 
BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE  
REINFORCED INTO THE AREA AS A BROAD 1024 MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY  
PLEASANT WEEKEND AHEAD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS UNDER CLEAR TO  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE RIVER  
VALLEYS (UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F HIGHER ELEVATIONS).  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
NEAR 80F ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS). OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS (MID 40S TO NEAR 50F HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS). DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS). SATURDAY NIGHT,  
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S ALONG THE RIVER  
VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR  
MASS IN PLACE (PWAT ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV). SUBSIDENCE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DRY AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT  
IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS (DEWPOINTS IN  
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S). HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH  
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE  
COAST. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE  
DEPARTING HIGH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARM UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL  
ONLY SLIGHTLY RISE THOUGH SINCE THE AIR MASS IS STARTING OUT SO  
ANOMALOUSLY DRY.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO FALL AS A RESULT OF AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE  
DIFFERS WITH TIMING OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
TROUGH, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AND WILL MENTION SLIGHT/LOW  
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.  
 
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES  
OR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION (DEPENDING ON TIMING). SOME STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EXPECTED AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN  
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TIMING DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT, BUT  
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME ROBUST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IF  
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.  
 
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, AS GUIDANCE  
INDICATES OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE  
SCALE UPPER TROUGH. THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST IN  
THE LOW LEVELS. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE  
FEATURES, DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR TODAY, WITH  
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE OF MORE  
PERSISTENT CIGS AT KPOU/KPSF, WHERE BKN COVERAGE IS MENTIONED.  
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCT AT KGFL/KALB TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME  
PERIODS OF BKN CIGS MAY OCCUR. EITHER WAY, CIG HEIGHTS WILL BE AT  
VFR LEVELS.  
 
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS  
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS  
AT KPOU/KPSF, WHERE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED.  
EVEN LOWER CIGS AT IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF BETWEEN 08Z-12Z  
FRIDAY, BUT WILL NOT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF JUST YET. SOME  
STRATUS MAY REACH TO KALB, BUT CIG HEIGHTS ARE UNCERTAIN THAT FAR  
NORTH. AT KGFL, THICKER CLOUDS MAY NOT DEVELOP THERE SO FOG  
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.  
 
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR CALM, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 3-  
6 KT BY LATER THIS MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
MAINLY DRY, TRANQUIL, AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A STRAY  
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RUN NEAR  
SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES WILL RANGE  
BETWEEN 40-70% WITH THE LOWEST VALUES LOCATED OVER THE UPPER HUDSON  
VALLEY AND THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. TONIGHT,  
MAXIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 85-100%. ON FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH  
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40-65%. FRIDAY NIGHT, MAXIMUM RH VALUES  
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 75-100%. FOR SATURDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL  
RANGE BETWEEN 30-45%. SATURDAY NIGHT, MAXIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE  
BETWEEN 60-100% WITH THE LOWEST VALUES LOCATED SOUTH OF I-90 AND THE  
HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF I-90.  
 
TODAY, CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT  
MAGNITUDES OF 5 KTS OR LESS. TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS. ON FRIDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.  
FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AT  
LESS THAN 5 KTS. ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE  
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KTS. SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO TREND TOWARDS CALM.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE ALBANY HSA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN  
THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING  
STORM SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL COME  
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN  
RECENT DAYS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN, AREA RIVERS  
AND STREAMS SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS NEXT  
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE FORECAST FOR AREA RIVERS, STREAM, CREEKS, AND RESERVOIRS CALLS  
FOR LEVELS TO REMAIN BY AND LARGE BELOW ACTION STAGE INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...EVBUOMA  
NEAR TERM...EVBUOMA  
SHORT TERM...EVBUOMA  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...EVBUOMA  
HYDROLOGY...EVBUOMA  
 
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