882
FXUS61 KALY 021058
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE A FEW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE THE SEEDS OF WHAT
WILL BECOME THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN A ZONE
OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MODEST WITH CAPES PERHAPS UP TO 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONSIDERABLE BUT SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LIMITED. IF UPDRAFTS
CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH, DRY AIR AT MID AND LOW LEVELS COULD ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFTS, WITH AGAIN, SOME GUSTY WINDS.
BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER CUT OFF LOW FORMS IN OR NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS
THROUGH SATURDAY FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THE
UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR REGION BUT SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY, WITH CLOUDS LINGERING MUCH LONGER FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN FAR WESTERN AREAS THAT
WILL HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE SATURDAY.
CONTINUED CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNDAY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, CLOSEST TO
THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A FEW MID 70S IN PARTS OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER, SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EAST OF HUDSON'S BAY IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT AS IT LINGERS OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE BROADER TROUGH GETS.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATES THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MAINTAIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY/JUNE 7-11 AND 8-14 DAY/JUNE
9-15 TEMPERATURES OUTLOOKS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12/SAT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOISTEN UP. PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER IMPACTS ON
INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES ARE UNCERTAIN. FROM 22Z/FRI-02Z/SAT IS
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT ITS GREATEST COVERAGE SO HAVE FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS WINDOW WITH A TEMPO GROUP AND SHOWERS
PREVAILING IN TAFS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND TAFS AMENDED AS
NECESSARY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.
A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
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