095  
FXUS61 KALY 282008  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
408 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BEAUTIFUL SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO  
SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW COURTESY OF A PASSING  
DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED  
ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM  
UP ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
TRANQUILITY PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM AN  
ADJACENT SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO TRIUMPH OVER MOIST,  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE  
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATING  
THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEAR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,  
PAIRING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE  
AND UVVS SUCH THAT THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN AND SHOWERS FINALLY  
REACH THE SURFACE BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE EASTERN  
CATSKILLS, SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGHOUT  
THE NIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL HELP TO FURTHER  
OVERCOME DRIER LOW-LEVELS. STILL, NUISANCE SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERYWHERE TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
NUISANCE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE ONCE SURFACE WAVE  
DEEPENS INTO A WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE  
CLOSED LOW CONVERSELY WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ALOFT. WITH  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE, VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION CAN BE  
ANTICIPATED WITH SHOWERS HIGHLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AS BOTH THE  
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH TRACK NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY. CLOUDY AND RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS THAT ARE A  
BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S  
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO UPPER 60S IN LARGE VALLEY AREAS. A  
BRIEF RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION COMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
BEFORE OUR NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 40S  
IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FRIDAY  
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,  
THOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON, IT IS CLEAR THAT  
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST.  
GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SYSTEM REPRESENTATIVE OF A NEUTRAL-  
TILT, "TYPE A" WARM SEASON NOR'EASTER BRINGING 0.5" TO LOCALIZED  
1.5" THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST RUNS HAVE INDICATED  
MORE OF A LACK OF PHASING OF THE PRIMARY, CLOSED UPPER LOW AND  
A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ABOUT ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH  
DISPLACES THE DEVELOPING SURFACE COASTAL LOW FARTHER TO THE  
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD INEVITABLY SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST  
RAIN TO THE EAST AND MAY PROMOTE THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO  
OUR REGION, ULTIMATELY GIVING US MUCH LESS RAIN THAN THE CURRENT  
FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL  
SOAKING RAIN THAT POSES LITTLE TO NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS. LOWS  
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH  
HIGHS SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
RESIDUAL RAIN FROM SATURDAY'S NOR'EASTER WILL MAKE FOR A WET  
START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS MOIST, CYCLONIC FLOW  
DOMINATES BENEATH THE NORTHEAST-DEPARTING SYSTEM. BY THIS POINT,  
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN SO  
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL  
PERSIST INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE AND LAKE-  
ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS GIVEN THE STALL OF THE UPPER LOW  
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS  
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE  
SURFACE TO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE. BROAD TROUGHING  
PERSISTING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES WILL JOIN DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO BRING A MUCH NEEDED  
REPRIEVE FROM DREARY WEATHER.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE  
CHILLY SIDE BY EARLY JUNE STANDARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS  
HIGHER TERRAIN AND 60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT WITH A GRADUAL  
WARMING TREND, HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER  
70S BY TUESDAY. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN IN THE 40S  
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING TO THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST  
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TODAY. THEN CONDITIONS WILL  
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,  
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL  
ALSO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES IN, SO ONLY SITE WHERE PREVAILING  
SHOWERS WILL BE MENTION IS AT KPOU, WITH SEVERAL PROB30 GROUPS AT  
KALB/KGFL/KPSF TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER CHANCES AND SCATTERED COVERAGE  
OF SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR INITIALLY,  
WITH IFR EXPECTED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. IFR  
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY WITH A  
FEW MORE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT BECOMING  
SOUTHEAST AROUND 2-6 KT TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.  
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...GANT  
NEAR TERM...GANT  
SHORT TERM...GANT  
LONG TERM...GANT  
AVIATION...JPV  
 
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