706
FXUS61 KALY 231030
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
GIVEN FAVORABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND INCOMING LOW PWATS.
LEANED ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES DUE TO NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG ~1030-1035HPA ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL MARK
OUR SIXTH STRAIGHT DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
NORTHERLY WINDS IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
INCOMING HIGH WILL SUPPORT COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH PWATS
DROPPING 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE LATEST
NAEFS AND ENS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY. THUS, TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL TREND COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS YET REMAIN
SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER LIKELY ONLY RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS MOISTURE SPILLS OVERTOP A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES, STILL EXPECTING NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
FREEZE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LEANED
ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE THE
COOLING POTENTIAL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LEADING TO A STELLAR WEEKEND. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW ENSUES SUPPORTING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OUR DRY STRETCH
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING 0% CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE (AT
LEAST 0.01") RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE
FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR AT
LEAST A 0.10" OF RAIN IN THE 24 HR PERIOD 8AM WED TO 8AM THURS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12 UTC SATURDAY, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 3-5KTS THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 6-8KTS BY 14-16 UTC WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 12KTS. WINDS WEAKEN UNDER 5KTS BY SUNSET THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31
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