895
FXUS61 KALY 252155
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
455 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2020
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BECOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING. RAIN MAY MIX SLEET
AT TIMES FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
STEADY PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY, SOUTHERN
VERMONT, AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
AS OF 4 PM, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RADAR SHOWING BRIGHT BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SCHOHARIE COUNTY, AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. NYS MESONET CAMERAS AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS
SHOW THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NY ADVECTS
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID-30S,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOUGH. HOWEVER, NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY
RAINFALL IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. WE ALSO ALLOWED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR HAMILTON,
NORTHERN WARREN, SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY
THROUGH 4AM TONIGHT DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR
FREEZING AND THUS POSSIBLE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
WHERE BRIGHT BANDING AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
SUPPORT WET SNOW LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z TO 03Z
TONIGHT AND OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING
THIS WINDOW AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB
ISOTHERMS BETWEEN +2C TO +5C WILL BE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BESIDE TEMPERATURES,
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE BERKSHIRES, SOUTHERN
GREENS AND TACONICS WITH NYS MESONET AND ASOS STATIONS SHOWING
GUSTS REACHING 30-45MPH. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT.
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 03-06Z WHEN THE
BEST MID- LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ENSUE THEREAFTER AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
QUICKLY PUNCHES INTO EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BUFKIT
SOUNDING HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING
AFTER 06Z UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM POUGHKEEPSIE TOWARDS
GLENS FALLS IN ADDITION TO NW CT. USUALLY IN THE WAKE OF AN
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT MILD AND CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. PLUS,
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. THUS, ANY WET SURFACE SHOULD STAY WET BUT WE WILL
MONITOR TEMPERATURES IN CASE MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE FORMATION.
HOWEVER, FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT,
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES STAY MILDER
THAN -10C. THIS MEANS CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE
NUCLEI AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARDS 30-32F,
THESE AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, NOT
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HEADING TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH OUR CLOSED LOW SWINGING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT 700MB MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS MOST OF THE REGION STAYING DRY,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT COATINGS UP
TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND TACONICS DUE
TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE
WAKE OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA HEADING TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY
AS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN AT 500MB
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, BY THE AFTERNOON, WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ENSUES WITH LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. OTHER
AREAS LIKELY STAY DRY WITH WESTERLY FLOW LEADING TO A RATHER
MILD SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S WHICH FOR LATE JANUARY IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVE INTO EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ONCE AGAIN SUFFICIENT 700MB MOISTURE PRESENT. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-90 AND FAVORED WESTWARD FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS, BERKSHIRES, TACONICS AND ADIRONDACKS, AS AN
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL MILD BY LATE
JANUARY STANDARDS AS WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LOWS FROM
DECREASING TOO MUCH, ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. OVERALL, THE TOTAL QPF BETWEEN THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON PLUS ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10-0.20 OF
AN INCH. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THESE SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NEARLY TWO DAYS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED.
WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON MONDAY WE WILL STILL BE
DEALING WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD AS THE CLOSED LOW VERY
SLOWLY EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWEST, THE AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE LAKES IS
NOT OVERLY COLD WITH 850MB ISOTHERMS ONLY RANGING BETWEEN -6C
AND -8C. THUS, THE CRITICAL DELTA-T THRESHOLD MAY ONLY BARELY BE
MET SO LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE FAVORED SNOW SHOWERS DOES NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WE CONTINUED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ONCE AGAIN LOOK RATHER MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH NEAR 40 IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS IN
A COOLER AIR MASS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. EVEN LAKE
EFFECT WILL BE MUTED DUE TO VERY BORDERLINE LAKE-AIR DELTA T'S AT
BEST. SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL THEN MENTION DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. ALSO, HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
TRANSITION FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL EXPECTED BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, AS THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MASSES NEAR OUR REGION.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM ON THE HORIZON. HOWEVER, AS EXPECTED THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTTOM
LINE THERE IS AT LEAST A SIGNAL FOR A POSSIBLE STORM, BUT THE TRACK,
INTENSITY AND RESULTING QPF ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VFR/MVFR FOR THE MORNING BUT STEADY
RAINFALL IS HEADED TOWARDS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NY, NE PA AND
NJ. THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE IN PLACE FROM ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY (ESPECIALLY FOR VISIBILITY). ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, 2 KFT WINDS WILL BE
40-50 KTS FROM THE SE, ALLOWING FOR LLWS AT ALL SITES.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER OFF BY 01Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER,
BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL SITES, WITH LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KGFL/KALB AND IFR AT KPSF/KPOU. A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WITH PICK UP AND THE COMBINATION OF THE REMAINING STRATUS CLOUDS
AND LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, CEILINGS MAY START TO RISE, SO A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE VALLEY SITES.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS. A STRAY SHOWER COULD BE
AROUND AGAIN, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH EASTERN
NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50
AND 1.25" WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. WHILE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.10 TO 0.20" PER HOUR, FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW IN
RESPONSE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE.
SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE WESTERN FACING
SLOPE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-042.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/SPECIALE
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