190
FXUS61 KALY 291939
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
239 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY INTO
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT GETS
UNDERWAY STARTING TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE
STRONG WINDS INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.
2. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THUS FAR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL DISTRICT, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. AS A RESULT,
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WINDS MAY ONLY GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, ANY
LINGERING ICE ACCRETION ON TREES WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SNAPPING
AND BREAKING, SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALSO INCLUDED FOR THESE
AREAS. LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 58 MPH OR
GREATER WERE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AND RATHER LOCALIZED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, SO WE HELD OFF ON AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE EVENT AN UPGRADE IS NEEDED LATER. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST
CAMS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE THRUWAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THIS BAND, NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES (COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS FROM KEY
MESSAGE 1 ABOVE) WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 0.50 TO 1 INCHES
PER HOUR. A MULTI- LAKE CONNECTION WITH GEORGIAN BAY WILL ALLOW
FOR THIS BAND TO EXTEND WELL INLAND, REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT, MID- HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES AT TIMES
WHERE SOME COATINGS TO A COUPLE OF INCHES CAN ACCUMULATE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING 2
TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS SET UP, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY,
WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS HAMILTON, FULTON, MONTGOMERY AND SCHOHARIE
COUNTIES HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
THE FLOW WILL BACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SOME WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO ORIENT BACK ACROSS N HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES WHERE THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES EXTEND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER, WESTERLY
FLOW RESUMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS
STRONG AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ANY BANDS DURING THE LATE WEEK
WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND AS FAR INLAND, ONLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TO ARES WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUESDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED TO OUR EAST BUT
A COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL USHER IN
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE WINDS TURN BREEZY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE SPOTTY NATURE OF SHOWERS, DID NOT INCLUDE
SHOWERS IN THE LATEST TAF UPDATES AT GFL, ALB AND POU BUT
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT PSF WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN
SUPPORT BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, IFR CIGS AT GFL AND PSF IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR BY 21 UTC OR SO. VFR CIGS CONTINUE TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTEND INTO ALB AND PSF MAINLY 06 - 10
UTC WHERE IFR/MVFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS CAN OCCUR.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFT TO THE
WEST BY 21 - 00 UTC BECOMING SUSTAINED 10-18 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LOOKS TO
PREVENT GUSTS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG AT ALB, GFL AND POU UNTIL
12 - 15 UTC WHEN THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN.
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REACH 30 TO 45KTS, STRONGEST AT PSF.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
NEW YEARS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-
058>061-063>066-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ033-042-043-083-
084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-047-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...31
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page