234  
FXUS61 KALY 250207  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1007 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOLER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. SEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY WITH  
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE  
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY  
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
   
UPDATE
 
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED FROM ALBANY  
EASTWARD, LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AS  
WELL, SO TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S  
LATE THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.  
   
PREVIOUS[0735]
 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A SMALL AREA FROM  
AROUND ALBANY EASTWARD INTO THE RENSSELAER PLATEAU AND UPPER  
HUDSON VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, AS SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOWS STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES WITH  
A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT  
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE AND THE LOSS OF HEATING. IDEAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH CLEAR TO  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING. FOG WILL BE MOST  
PREVALENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL FEEL CHILLY TO SOME  
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN  
PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THEN  
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SHORT  
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXTEND  
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE  
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH SOME AS IT HEADS INTO  
OUR REGION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY AREAS  
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 70S BELOW 1000 FEET AND IN THE 60S ABOVE THAT. MILDER  
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BELOW 1500 FEET  
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ABOVE THAT. COOLER SUNDAY IN THE  
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS MAINLY IN  
THE 60S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON  
VALLEY WITH 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. COOLER AGAIN  
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 DEGREES IN  
HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL GENERALLY CONSIST OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING,  
DEEPENING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. BY FRIDAY, THIS TROUGH WILL CUT-  
OFF INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST  
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE  
REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
THEN, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR REGION LATER TUESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR, DRY WEATHER. WE MAY CONTEND  
WITH SOME SHOWERS BY FRIDAY, PENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE DURING THE WEEK WITH HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID-  
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S,  
EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND UPPER 30S IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW  
PATCHES OF STRATOCU AT VFR LEVELS MAY MOVE ACROSS KALB, BUT  
SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE AS WINDS BECOME  
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR, RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR  
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT USUAL SITES KGFL/KPSF,  
ALTHOUGH FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR AT KALB/KPOU SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION  
FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z SATURDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS ON SATURDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
FAIR WEATHER INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER  
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE  
CAPITAL DISTRICT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE ONLY FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT IS FOR BROOKFIELD ON THE STILL  
RIVER.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW  
PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
SO RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RECEDE.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA  
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV  
SHORT TERM...IAA  
LONG TERM...RATHBUN  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA  
HYDROLOGY...IAA  
 
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