199
FXUS61 KALY 031039
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALTHOUGH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT IN TODAY, AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 95 TO 99
DEGREES FOR THE 4TH OF JULY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS TODAY CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 4TH OF JULY FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AS WELL.
2) MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES (TOPPING OUT ABOUT 596 DM). 850 HPA TEMPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH EXPECTED VALUES AROUND 20-22
C. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING 850 HPA TEMPS WAS 20.7 C AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, SO THIS
MAY NOT IMPACT HIGH TEMPS.
AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD MID 90S IN MANY VALLEY AREAS, WITH SOME UPPER 90S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. POUGHKEEPSIE EXCEEDED 100
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND HAS A CHANCE TO DO IT AGAIN TODAY. WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S, WHICH SHOULD EASILY ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EXCEED
100 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MANY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS FOR MOST AREAS, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN, AS THE CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF SEVERAL DAYS OF
EXTREME HEAT WILL BE HAVING A TOLL ON THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. WPC HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MAJOR
CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME POCKETS OF EXTREME,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY, TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE STARTING TO FALL AND SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DAYTIME TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM DUE TO
SOME MORE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS MAY BE STARTING TO FALL
AS WELL. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT MAY STILL REACH OR
EXCEED IT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HAVE GONE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES AND THE CONTINUED CUMULATIVE IMPACT ON THE HEAT.
TEMPS WILL FINALLY BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA ON SUNDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, FAST MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
THANKS TO THE REGION'S PLACEMENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
SOLAR HEATING, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE REGION TODAY, WITH SBCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ONCE AGAIN FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE REACH 30-40 KTS, SO
THERE WILL BE A GOOD OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR TODAY
ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION ON
SOUTHWARD.
BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS, CONVECTION LOOK TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF LAKE BREEZES IN WESTERN NEW YORK AND THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FOR LATE IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
IMPACT OUR AREA FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE FORM OF SMALL
CLUSTERS/BOWS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS
TODAY AND LOOK GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE STORMS.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE MAY BE A LOT OF CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WITH STORMS. SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY.
MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO A NEARBY
DISTURBANCE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN. STORMS AGAIN
LOOK SCATTERED, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY
BE SOUTH OF THE REGION, AS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MAY MORE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SPC HAS THE DAY 2 SEVERE SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, ALTHOUGH THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
DOES BRUSH INTO SOUTHERN AREAS, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DURING THE DAY TODAY, IT WILL BE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR ALL SITES. JUST A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5-7 KFT
DURING THE MORNING, WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE MORNING HOURS, BUT MAY
GET CLOSE TO 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT KALB/KPSF.
BY EVENING, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND COULD
IMPACT THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY KALB, KPSF AND KPOU. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE BRIEF, BUT COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS OVER
40 KTS AND QUICK IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
MENTIONED A PROB30 FOR THESE SITES AFTER 22Z, BUT IT'S TOO
EARLY TO SAY IF THE SITES WILL SEE A STORM OR NOT. BEHIND ANY
STORMS, IT WILL BE VFR INTO TONIGHT, WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK IF RAINFALL OCCURS AT A TAF SITE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953 GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JULY 2, 2026
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-
013.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ059-060-
064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-042-
058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013-
015.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
CLIMATE...33
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