882  
FXUS61 KALY 021058  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
658 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL  
BRING SOME CLOUDS, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK AS WELL.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE A FEW  
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE THE SEEDS OF WHAT  
WILL BECOME THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIDDAY THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON. UPPER ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING IN A ZONE  
OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE  
MODEST WITH CAPES PERHAPS UP TO 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS AND  
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CONSIDERABLE BUT SHEAR WILL BE  
WEAK.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK  
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT THE  
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LIMITED. IF UPDRAFTS  
CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH, DRY AIR AT MID AND LOW LEVELS COULD ENHANCE  
DOWNDRAFTS, WITH AGAIN, SOME GUSTY WINDS.  
 
BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH  
SUNSHINE TO HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO  
AROUND 90.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
UPPER CUT OFF LOW FORMS IN OR NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW  
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS  
THROUGH SATURDAY FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CORE OF THE  
UPPER COLD POOL SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR REGION BUT SOME LINGERING  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL  
BREAK UP OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE SOME  
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE  
HUDSON VALLEY, WITH CLOUDS LINGERING MUCH LONGER FROM THE HUDSON  
VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID  
60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN FAR WESTERN AREAS THAT  
WILL HAVE THE MOST SUNSHINE SATURDAY.  
 
CONTINUED CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
SUNDAY WITH THE MOST CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, CLOSEST TO  
THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A FEW MID 70S IN PARTS OF THE  
HUDSON VALLEY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. PARTLY  
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
AN UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED  
TO BE MOVING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY. HOWEVER, SHORT  
WAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EAST OF HUDSON'S BAY IS EXPECTED  
TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW IS  
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING  
ABOUT IT AS IT LINGERS OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES  
IN THE GUIDANCE ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE BROADER TROUGH GETS.  
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATES THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE END  
OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MAINTAIN A LONGWAVE  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  
 
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH  
DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN  
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY/JUNE 7-11 AND 8-14 DAY/JUNE  
9-15 TEMPERATURES OUTLOOKS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PRECIPITATION  
OUTLOOKS NEAR NORMAL.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
THROUGH 12/SAT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN  
AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE  
ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOISTEN UP. PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON  
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER IMPACTS ON  
INDIVIDUAL TAFS SITES ARE UNCERTAIN. FROM 22Z/FRI-02Z/SAT IS  
WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT ITS GREATEST COVERAGE SO HAVE FOCUS  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS WINDOW WITH A TEMPO GROUP AND SHOWERS  
PREVAILING IN TAFS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND TAFS AMENDED AS  
NECESSARY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT.  
 
A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...NAS  
NEAR TERM...NAS  
SHORT TERM...NAS  
LONG TERM...IAA  
AVIATION...IAA  
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