544
FXUS61 KALY 152342
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING CLEAR, COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HUMIDITY STARTS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY
TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 742 PM EDT...AREAS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT OPAQUE
THOUGH, SO HAVE ONLY INCREASED MENTION TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A PERIOD OF CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR WITH SOME
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DRY AND WITH A DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL
INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F IN A FEW OF THE VALLEY AREAS. SOME
ISOLATED UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW RADIATIONAL MIST NEAR LAKE
GEORGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER HUDSON AND ALSO EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS. SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT BACK IN AND MAY LIMIT
TEMPS FROM FALLING FURTHER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST FROM THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND SFC DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE PLEASANT OR
COMFORTABLE SIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL EVENTUALLY GET
INVOLVED WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST
CONUS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THAT AREA AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE
LACKING AND THEY SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AS THEY ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY DRYER AND STABLE AIR. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE THE DRY FORECAST WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. A FEW OF THOSE
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED DAY AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMAINS OF BARRY AND SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES TOWARD
OUR AREA. FORECAST DETAILS ON WEDNESDAY ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN;
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE HUMID AND IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK
UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED TO PRODUCE SOME
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS, GIVEN THAT MID-LEVEL WINDS ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 40 TO 45
KTS AND PWAT VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2.0 INCHES. IF MLCAPES
CAN INCREASE TO NEAR OR OVER 1000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY THEN SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN- PRODUCING STORMS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, IF CLOUDS KEEP THE INSTABILITY DOWN WE MAY JUST BE
LOOKING AT SOME ROUTINE SHOWERS WITH A LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SPC THEY ARE KEEPING MARGINAL CHANCES
FOR SEVERE OUT OF OUR AREA FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED.
WPC IS GOING WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD.
HIGH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED THE TIMING OF THE BACK-EDGE OF THE FORCING FOR LIFT
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE OVER FOR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE LATEST
12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE LARGE SCALE FORCING OFF TO OUR
EAST, AND WE WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS GOING FOR
THURSDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT INTO
THURSDAY WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM BARRY WILL BE
DEPARTING TO OUR EAST AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONG RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW DURING THE LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND USHERING IN HOT AND MOIST AIR.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DUE TO THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
BARRY AS IT DEPARTS TO OUR EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND DIFFUSE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUGGESTED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
DEW POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND CAPITAL REGION. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 95-105F FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME REGIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AROUND THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS,
THEREFORE THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IF SOME ORGANIZATION ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO RELEASE THE INSTABILITY
AND RESULT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
NOW THOUGH, SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. A
BRIEF WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AT KGFL, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MENTIONED. THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF FOG
AT KPSF, SO WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY THERE.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES FOR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THAT WILL LAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 95 PERCENT TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID ON TUESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY TO
BECOME A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IN
THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY
DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF BARRY LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD CONTAIN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAIN IS THAT MOST OF THE
REGION HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS. WPC
HAS PLACED MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DUE TO ANOMALOUS HIGH PWATS AND SOME TRAINING
OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS. ANY FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE DUE TO LOCALIZED ISSUES ALONG SMALL
STREAM OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PLEASE VISIT OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/
WEB PAGE FOR SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEBULKO
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...MSE/BGM
HYDROLOGY...MSE/BGM
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