189
FXUS61 KALY 281951
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WHILE IT WILL STAY COOL ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE AREA AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT, IT WILL
BECOME RATHER MILD FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH. SOME WINTRY MIX IS
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE JUST PERIODS OF PLAIN RAIN. IT WILL
TURN MILD EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON
MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 350 PM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT, THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
AND THICKEN THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA. MRMS SHOWS PRECIP HAS ALREADY SPREAD TOWARDS
SOUTHWESTERN NY AND WESTERN PA AND CAMS SUGGEST SOME PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REACH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS BY 8 TO 11 PM. TEMPS HAVE REACHED INTO THE 40S AND 50S
DURING THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL BE FALLING THIS EVENING INTO THE
30S AND 40S.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WETBULB, SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
(ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ADIRONDACKS, INCLUDING THE
LAKE GEORGE AND PERHAPS THE GLENS FALLS AREA) WILL REACH CLOSE
TO THE FREEZING MARK AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME STEADIER FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS,
AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-90/MOHAWK VALLEY
AND STARTS TO STALL. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL, INCREASING PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING, THESE SHELTERED NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN, WITH A UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO HAVING ACCRETED BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
FURTHER SOUTH, PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTIER AND ON AND OFF, WITH
PASSING WAVES OF LIGHT RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING, WITH LOWS HAVING OCCURRED AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WILL HOLD STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE, ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, AS A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZING RAIN LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
LAKE GEORGE-GLENS FALLS REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ON SATURDAY GOING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S, WHILE NORTHERN AREAS REMAIN IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
DISCUSSION:
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY
ROUND OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO START THE DAY, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MORE
OF THE REGION. ON THE VERY FAR SOUTH, SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAY EVEN DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. HAVE GONE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF
ICE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO START THE DAY, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT AS WELL.
THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REGION,
WITH NORTHERN AREAS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, WHILE THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO AIR MASSES. TEMPS
MAY PEAK IN THE MORNING IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND START TO FALL
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY SUBTLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY, FAR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS, WHICH WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IN THOSE AREAS. THIS COULD ALSO
HELP ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO HELP FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM, ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING ALL AREAS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. SOME
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE STILL ONGOING IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT, WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME ICE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
BERKSHIRES AND INTO THE SACANDAGA AREA. THE PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ORGANIZED IN A STEADY BAND DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THIS MAIN BAND FROM TIME TO TIME.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD AND SHOULD
FINALLY REACH NORTH OF THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
BATCH OF FAIRLY STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT MID SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD BE RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, AS TEMPS FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S EVERYWHERE.
TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND PRECIP WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SPOTTY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE AND MIST CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
OVERALL, ABOUT A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED
FOR NORTHERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO A HALF
INCH CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SHELTERED AREAS OF THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR OVER A HALF INCH
OF ICE IS ONLY 10 PERCENT, SO IT APPEARS THAT TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS
SHOULD STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. BASED ON THIS, WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT.
FINALLY, SOME RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE THANKS TO ALL THE
RAINFALL. WHILE ADIRONDACKS SNOW MELT MAY BE INITIALLY LIMITED
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS TO START THE WEEKEND, THERE MAY BE SOME
MELT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, ALL OF THE RUNOFF WILL
LEAD TO RISES AND A FEW RIVER POINTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS
COULD GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING AREAS, AS WELL AS ON ROADWAYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
(>75%) AND THUNDERSTORMS (15%) FOR MONDAY.
- A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS ON MONDAY THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION:
A DREARY START TO THE WORK WEEK AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PEAKS OF SUNSHINE, LOCATIONS
IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 70S. OTHERWISE, LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE
RANGE IN THE 50S TO 60S DUE TO STUBBORN CLOUDINESS. FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, THERE ARE CHANCES (AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD
LESS THAN 30%) FOR RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR TUESDAY MORNING
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY FINALLY COMING TO AN END FOR A DRIER AND CALMER
WEATHER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE ON THE CHILLY SIDE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF APRIL RANGING IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS
COULD PERIODICALLY GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT
TRACK PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF WHEN PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. AS
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS ALL RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
COULD SEE AN ONSET MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
THERE IS AGREEMENT FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KGFL AT THE
ONSET DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE TO
ALL RAIN BY 29/06Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO DECREASING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND STALLS IN THE NORTHERN VICINITY OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AT KPOU WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD, WITH A MORE SHOWERY RAIN EXPECTED AT KALB/KPSF AND
STEADIER RAIN AT KGFL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN AND REMAINING LOCATED
OVER THE AREA, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES TO A
MINIMUM. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-043-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...SPECK
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
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