006
FXUS61 KALY 310544
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1:30 AM EDT, COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED IN THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS NOSES EASTWARD. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHEAST HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KTS. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
POURING INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF THE ENSUING CANADIAN
AIR MASS, GOES16 NIGHTTIME FOG CHANNEL SHOWS LOW STRATUS OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREENS, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. OTHER
AREAS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY CLEAR. WHILE DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVERNIGHT, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
LIKELY WILL PROHIBIT TEMPERATURE FROM REACHING THEIR RESPECTIVE
DEW POINTS. STILL EXPECTING A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING REGARDLESS
WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. SKIES WILL VARY FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
DAY AND IT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY FOR LATE MAY. 850 HPA TEMPS
NEAR ZERO WILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE, WHICH WILL BE
A BIG CHANGE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO.
BY LATE ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS, AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTERWARD, CLOUDS WILL BE
CLEARING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. IT WON'T BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO GO
CALM AND THERE STILL BE A FEW CLOUDS. DESPITE THIS, IT LOOKS
LIKE A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
HOW DRY THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S FOR MOST SPOTS AND A FEW MID 30S CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS. SOME SPOTTY
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN, BUT ANY AREAS
WHERE THERE ARE AGRICULTURAL INTEREST SHOULD SEE TEMPS MILD
ENOUGH TO AVOID FROST.
OUR AREA WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED, BUT A
BRIEF SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT (MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS)
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS DRY AND
QUIET, WITH COOL TEMPS TO START THE WEEK AND A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT, A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL COOL, WITH 40S FOR THE WHOLE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO START AND A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND SHOWER/T-STORM COMPLEXES RIDING UP AND OVER
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST-EAST ORIENTED) WITH A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER TO END THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING, THEN TAKE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COMPLEX, A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION (MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING). A SURFACE LOW WILL
ATTEMPT TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND TRACK EASTWARD, AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, SO THIS IS WHERE THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR. STILL, SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
THE FRONT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SMALL AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LIKELY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY WORK
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE 60S/70S ON TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY
TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, REACHING THE MID-
70S/LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
AT THE SURFACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.
SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS AT KALB/KPSF 06Z-
09Z/SUN WITH CIGS 2.5-3.0 KFT AGL. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE REGION CAUSING THE SKIES TO CLEAR WITH FEW-
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS AND VFR CONDITIONS THE DURATION OF
THE TAF CYCLE. THE SKIES MAY BECOME SCT-BKN AT 5.0-6 KFT AGL DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
CUMULUS DUE TO THE COOL AIR ALOFT. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK, AS THE ANTICYCLONE RIDGES IN.
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KPSF/KALB. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS
AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO DEEPER MIXING. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z/MON TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS THIS EVENING, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THEN FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 15
MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING, MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT, RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...EVBUOMA/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
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