895  
FXUS61 KALY 252155  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
455 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO  
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BECOME MODERATE TO BRIEFLY  
HEAVY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING. RAIN MAY MIX SLEET  
AT TIMES FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH PATCHY  
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.  
STEADY PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS  
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR  
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY, SOUTHERN  
VERMONT, AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.  
 
AS OF 4 PM, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING EASTERN  
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RADAR SHOWING BRIGHT BANDING  
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SCHOHARIE COUNTY, AND EASTERN  
CATSKILLS. NYS MESONET CAMERAS AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS  
SHOW THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO  
SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NY ADVECTS  
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. GIVEN TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE  
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID-30S,  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOUGH. HOWEVER, NORTHERN HERKIMER  
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS  
UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY  
RAINFALL IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. WE ALSO ALLOWED THE  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR HAMILTON,  
NORTHERN WARREN, SOUTHERN VT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY  
THROUGH 4AM TONIGHT DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR  
FREEZING AND THUS POSSIBLE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM  
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR  
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS  
WHERE BRIGHT BANDING AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD  
SUPPORT WET SNOW LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH  
EARLY THIS EVENING.  
 
THE STEADY RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z TO 03Z  
TONIGHT AND OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR DURING  
THIS WINDOW AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB  
ISOTHERMS BETWEEN +2C TO +5C WILL BE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BESIDE TEMPERATURES,  
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE BERKSHIRES, SOUTHERN  
GREENS AND TACONICS WITH NYS MESONET AND ASOS STATIONS SHOWING  
GUSTS REACHING 30-45MPH. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT  
TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT.  
 
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 03-06Z WHEN THE  
BEST MID- LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME  
PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ENSUE THEREAFTER AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT  
QUICKLY PUNCHES INTO EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BUFKIT  
SOUNDING HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING  
AFTER 06Z UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM POUGHKEEPSIE TOWARDS  
GLENS FALLS IN ADDITION TO NW CT. USUALLY IN THE WAKE OF AN  
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY THE AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT MILD AND CURRENT  
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE WITH  
TEMPERATURES STAYING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. PLUS,  
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
FREEZING. THUS, ANY WET SURFACE SHOULD STAY WET BUT WE WILL  
MONITOR TEMPERATURES IN CASE MORE CLEARING DEVELOPS AND COLDER  
TEMPERATURES LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE FORMATION.  
 
HOWEVER, FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, BUFKIT  
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT,  
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES STAY MILDER  
THAN -10C. THIS MEANS CLOUDS SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE  
NUCLEI AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARDS 30-32F,  
THESE AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, NOT  
A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HEADING TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE  
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH OUR CLOSED LOW SWINGING  
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT 700MB MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE  
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS MOST OF THE REGION STAYING DRY,  
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS TO  
ACCOUNT FOR A LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 12Z TO 15Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL  
LOOK MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT COATINGS UP  
TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND TACONICS DUE  
TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE  
WAKE OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA HEADING TOWARDS MIDDAY SUNDAY  
AS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURGE OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN AT 500MB  
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, BY THE AFTERNOON, WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR  
ADVECTION ENSUES WITH LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS  
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. OTHER  
AREAS LIKELY STAY DRY WITH WESTERLY FLOW LEADING TO A RATHER  
MILD SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO  
LOW 40S WHICH FOR LATE JANUARY IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN  
NORMAL.  
 
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS  
AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH MOVE INTO EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW  
ENGLAND WITH ONCE AGAIN SUFFICIENT 700MB MOISTURE PRESENT. THIS  
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS  
NORTH OF I-90 AND FAVORED WESTWARD FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE  
SOUTHERN GREENS, BERKSHIRES, TACONICS AND ADIRONDACKS, AS AN  
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL MILD BY LATE  
JANUARY STANDARDS AS WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LOWS FROM  
DECREASING TOO MUCH, ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW  
30S. OVERALL, THE TOTAL QPF BETWEEN THE UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED  
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON PLUS ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM  
THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IS  
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10-0.20 OF  
AN INCH. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF  
NEW SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THESE SNOW AMOUNTS  
SHOULD OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS FOR  
NEARLY TWO DAYS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED.  
WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ON MONDAY WE WILL STILL BE  
DEALING WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD AS THE CLOSED LOW VERY  
SLOWLY EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE WESTERLY FLOW  
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWEST, THE AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE LAKES IS  
NOT OVERLY COLD WITH 850MB ISOTHERMS ONLY RANGING BETWEEN -6C  
AND -8C. THUS, THE CRITICAL DELTA-T THRESHOLD MAY ONLY BARELY BE  
MET SO LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE FAVORED SNOW SHOWERS DOES NOT LOOK  
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WE CONTINUED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN  
THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST  
CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ONCE AGAIN LOOK RATHER MILD  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH NEAR 40 IN THE MID-  
HUDSON VALLEY.  
 
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES  
COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS IN  
A COOLER AIR MASS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON TUESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
STILL POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED FORCING AND  
MOISTURE, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED. EVEN LAKE  
EFFECT WILL BE MUTED DUE TO VERY BORDERLINE LAKE-AIR DELTA T'S AT  
BEST. SO WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS  
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
WILL THEN MENTION DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,  
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION DURING THIS TIME. ALSO, HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY  
INCREASING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO  
TRANSITION FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES  
ARE STILL EXPECTED BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, AS THERE ARE NO  
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MASSES NEAR OUR REGION.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A  
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM ON THE HORIZON. HOWEVER, AS EXPECTED THIS  
FAR IN ADVANCE, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING LARGE DIFFERENCES. BOTTOM  
LINE THERE IS AT LEAST A SIGNAL FOR A POSSIBLE STORM, BUT THE TRACK,  
INTENSITY AND RESULTING QPF ARE EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VFR/MVFR FOR THE MORNING BUT STEADY  
RAINFALL IS HEADED TOWARDS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NY, NE PA AND  
NJ. THE STEADY RAINFALL WILL BE IN PLACE FROM ABOUT MID-  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH MVFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS LIKELY (ESPECIALLY FOR VISIBILITY). ALTHOUGH SURFACE  
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, 2 KFT WINDS WILL BE  
40-50 KTS FROM THE SE, ALLOWING FOR LLWS AT ALL SITES.  
 
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, STEADY RAINFALL  
WILL TAPER OFF BY 01Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR  
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER,  
BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. STRATUS CLOUDS WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL SITES, WITH LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS AT  
KGFL/KALB AND IFR AT KPSF/KPOU. A LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZE  
WITH PICK UP AND THE COMBINATION OF THE REMAINING STRATUS CLOUDS  
AND LIGHT BREEZE WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.  
 
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, CEILINGS MAY START TO RISE, SO A  
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE VALLEY SITES.  
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS. A STRAY SHOWER COULD BE  
AROUND AGAIN, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH EASTERN  
NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE  
ADIRONDACKS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.50  
AND 1.25" WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN  
CATSKILLS. WHILE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE  
WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.10 TO 0.20" PER HOUR, FLOODING IS  
NOT EXPECTED. SOME RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW IN  
RESPONSE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT RIVERS WILL REMAIN BELOW  
FLOOD STAGE.  
 
SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE WESTERN FACING  
SLOPE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT  
FROZEN PRECIPITATION.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ033-042.  
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.  
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013-014.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE  
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE  
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...FRUGIS  
HYDROLOGY...KL/SPECIALE  
 
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