873  
FXUS61 KALY 220859  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
359 AM EST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TODAY STARTS OFF DRY, BUT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH  
PLAIN RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. OUR WEATHER TURNS DRIER AND MUCH COLDER  
FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT  
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BEGINNING  
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 3:55 AM EST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED OFF TO OUR  
NORTHEAST, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION ALLOWING  
LOW STRATUS TO EXPAND INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN  
CT/MA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A THERMAL  
INVERSION AROUND 925 MB SEEN ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING. ALSO  
SEEING INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AS WEST OF  
I-87 DUE TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE  
EMBEDDED IN LONGWAVE TROUGHING TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 20S REGION-WIDE AT THIS TIME, AND  
SOME OF THE COLDER AREAS IN THE ADKS HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES  
RISE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE  
ARRIVAL OF THESE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP A  
FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR  
(I.E. SOUTHERN VT), BUT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT  
LOWS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY BEEN REACHED.  
 
TODAY STARTS OFF WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRY  
TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED  
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY,  
AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WARM  
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALLOW LIGHT  
PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOSTLY AS RAIN,  
BUT WET BULB PROCESSES COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING THIS  
EVENING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS TO SWITCH TO  
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 30S IN THE  
HIGH TERRAIN TO 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE BECOMES NEGATIVELY  
TILTED AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW/TPV LOBE TRACKS OVER HUDSON BAY  
CAUSING THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN. WITH THE SURFACE  
LOW APPROACHING OUR REGION, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN  
THESE AREAS FALLS AS RAIN. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FROM  
AROUND 00 TO 06Z WHERE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IS  
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN  
GREENS/BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
THAT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ERODE WITH HEIGHTS FALLS/COOLING  
ALOFT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION SHOULD FLIP BACK TO MAINLY SNOW IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT.  
GIVEN THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND AMOUNTS  
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WX  
ADVISORIES PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOX. WILL LIKELY HANDLE  
ANY SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT WITH SPSS.  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW MORNING AS  
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST AND A SECONDARY LOW  
FORMS OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW,  
ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS  
WILL SWITCH TO PLAIN RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END  
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WHEN  
ALL IS SAID AND DONE, A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND A  
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WITH SOME  
UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE MID 30S  
FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S FOR THE  
VALLEYS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT  
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A  
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE  
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DELAYED BY A COUPLE HOURS COMPARED TO  
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT  
LOWS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADKS WITH 10S TO AROUND  
20 FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE REGION. WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS (ADKS, WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY, NORTHEASTERN CATSKILLS), THE ANY ACCUMULATIONS  
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD  
DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY FRIDAY NIGHT  
AND SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH THE  
CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVERHEAD SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH 10S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN  
TO 20S IN THE VALLEYS.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS RELAX AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
IN FROM THE WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS  
THAT STILL HAVE A SNOWPACK. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UNDERCUT  
NBM LOWS BY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES, WITH 10S FOR THE VALLEY  
AREAS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. SOME OF THE MORE  
SHELTERED AREAS IN THE ADKS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 0  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* MODERATING TEMPS THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
 
* TRENDING WARMER AND WETTER MID WEEK. HIGHS COULD REACH 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEB.  
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH LESS WINDY CONDITIONS AND  
FLAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND  
EAST COAST. A SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM THE CAROLINAS. TEMPS  
WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE  
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MID  
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH, AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC. A  
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT  
SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL  
REGION/BERKSHIRES NORTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S, BUT  
HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 30S AND 40S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES BACK IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
FROM QUEBEC. THE QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BREAK  
DOWN AND BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL AND AMPLIFIED WITH A DIGGING MID AND  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS. IN  
THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, EXPECT HIGHS TO SURGE 10-15  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOLLOWED  
BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
ENSEMBLE AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGEST HIGH  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH 850 HPA  
TEMPS +1 TO +2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE LATEST NAEFS WITH ABOVE  
NORMAL PWATS, AS A WARM FRONT WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT BRINGS A  
PERIOD OF A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. POPS WERE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL  
AND HIGH LIKELY VALUES ON WED BASED ON THE LATEST NBM. MODERATE  
CONFIDENCE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL/QPF WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO  
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MILD LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FAVORED NBM MAX TEMPS MAY REACH THE  
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS EAST OF THE NEW  
ENGLAND COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING WITH  
AN INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE TAF SITES. SOME LOW MVFR  
STRATUS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO KPOU/KPSF  
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z/THU. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FURTHER NORTH.  
 
THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER UNTIL THE LATE MORNING INTO THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF KALB BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS  
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME DEVELOPING VFR STRATUS IN THE 4-5 KFT  
AGL RANGE WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS 22Z/THU AT THE TAF SITES. PROB30  
GROUPS WERE USED TO INTRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPING. THE BETTER  
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH A BRIEF MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT  
KGFL/KPSF WILL BE AFTER 00Z/FRI WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING  
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING,  
AND THEN WILL BE 6-12 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT NEAR KALB. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 00Z/FRI.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF RA.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MAIN  
NEAR TERM...MAIN  
SHORT TERM...MAIN  
LONG TERM...WASULA  
AVIATION...WASULA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab MA Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page