681
FXUS61 KALY 112023
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2021
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RAIN MAY EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THE COOL AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
THE AFTERNOON HAS REMAINED UNSEASONABLY CHILLY BETWEEN THE
CLOUD COVERAGE, BREEZY WINDS SUSTAINED 10 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE INCHED INTO THE
LOW 60S. NYS MESONET AND ASOS SITES SHOW THAT THE INCOMING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS HAVE ONLY
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST SINCE THE
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SEEMS TO BE EVAPORATING THE SHOWERS AS
THEY DESCEND TOWARDS THE GROUND.
ONCE WE PAST PEAK HEATING AND APPROACH SUNSET, CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND WE COULD SEE A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER, OUR MAIN TROUGH AXIS,
AS DEPICTED ON THE LATEST GOES16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL SWING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWERS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE ENHANCE MID-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERLAPPED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. LATEST
HIGH RES NAM AND HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, TACONICS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 03 UTC
THROUGH 12 UTC, DUE TO ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITHIN THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. EVEN STILL, OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS LOOK TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH OR EVEN BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
AND RESERVED TO THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS LESS THAN 1 INCH.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL TO MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
LOW 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND
BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE ANY FROST FORMATION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
BREEZY WEST - NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL. HOWEVER, A CLOSED HIGH IN THE MIDWEST WILL BE BUILDING
EASTWARD AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACTUALLY WILL START TO ADVECT IN
WARMER AIR THAT WILL ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER TOMORROW COMPARED
TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DESPITE STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM, WE WILL STILL WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD TROUGH WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY EXITING
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE, STILL EXPECTING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES TO MIX WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS WE
REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. IN ADDITION, HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BUT THESE SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACTS AREAS MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF ALBANY INCLUDING LAKE GEORGE, WASHINGTON COUNTY,
THE NORTHERN TACONICS, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. BUFKIT PROFILES
SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING (MUCAPE < 250
J/KG). THEREFORE, WE FOLLOWED SUITE WITH WFO BOSTON AND ADDED IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS.
SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 5 KTS WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
EASTERN CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, TACONICS AND HELDERBERGS, WE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
THAT FROST WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED, WE WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO DISCUSS THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER,
SUSTAINED GENERALLY ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
RESULTING IN A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BROAD, BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, SO NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAINFALL. THERE
MAY BE SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE, SO CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS
FAR OUT. WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN PLACE, DAYTIME TEMPS
SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN VALLEY AREAS. HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 40S, SO NO THREAT FOR ANY FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME RIDGING FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH FORM THE
MIDWEST. THE TIMING/EXACT TRACK OF THIS NEXT STORM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN OR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR MID MAY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH-BASED (VFR) STRATOCU ARE THICKENING THIS AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT
FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONTINUING. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BUT THEY WILL
EXPAND INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER AROUND 04Z
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES IN. THESE CLOUDS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS FOR A TIME ROUGHLY 09-13Z (SLIGHTLY LONGER AT KPSF).
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KPSF ROUGHLY 08-14Z.
CLOUD BASES WILL RISE AGAIN TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 13-14Z AS
DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES, WITH SCT-BKN COVERAGE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH TOMORROW...
AFTER A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RAIN MAY EVEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THE COOL AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER WEATHER.
MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT RISE TO 80 TO 100
PERCENT. THEN, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
TO A MINIMUM BETWEEN 35 TO 50 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT MAXIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN REACH TO 85 TO 100
PERCENT.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN AND RISE TO 8
TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND DROP BELOW 5 KTS.
HYDROLOGY
WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR
GRADUALLY FALL.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES,
INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE
ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...THOMPSON
FIRE WEATHER...SPECIALE
HYDROLOGY...SPECIALE
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