096  
FXUS61 KALY 151035  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
635 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING, USHERING IN A DRY, COOL AND BREEZY AIR MASS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- DRY, COOL AND BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY  
 
- FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR BELOW 35 DEGREES IN  
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.  
 
03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM  
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, AND WAS WELL HINTED AT  
ON GOES16 RGB NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CLEARING SKIES  
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE TUG HILL. ACROSS EASTERN NEW  
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE DUE TO  
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION NOTED ON  
THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING, WITH SOME DRIZZLE EVEN NOTED ON KENX AND  
SURFACE OBS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR CWA AS OF THIS WRITING WERE IN  
THE 50S, BUT WERE FALLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK  
WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR.  
 
THROUGH DAYTIME TODAY, OVERCAST SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE  
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS  
THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY  
AIR. FCST SOUNDINGS HINT AT MIXING UP THE 850-800 HPA LAYER BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL TAP INTO TO WINDS AROUND 25-35 KT AND RESULT  
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE  
TO HINT AT NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15-25 MPH, WITH LOW  
PROBABILITIES (10-20%) OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE 50S OUTSIDE OF  
TERRAIN (HIGHS IN THE 40S) AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY (HIGHS IN  
THE LOW 60S).  
 
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOWS DROPPING  
INTO THE 20S (TERRAIN) TO MID AND UPPER 30S (VALLEYS). THANKFULLY,  
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER  
DECOUPLING WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY FROST FORMATION.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES, COOL  
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS TERRAIN TO MID 50S IN VALLEYS)  
AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH CONTINUED STRONG VERTICAL MIXING.  
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR CONCERNS FOR FIRE SPREAD  
AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH RH VALUES IN THE 30% RANGE.  
WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE PARTNERS TO DECIDE IF THERE WILL BE  
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST,  
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OPTIMAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE  
NBM FAVORING TEMPERATURES BELOW 35 DEGREES (25-90%) ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHWEST  
CONNECTICUT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS ONGOING. PLEASE MONITOR  
THE FORECAST AS FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE  
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES  
 
- STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE TO  
START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION  
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED,  
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AND A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS A  
LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER (< 15%) MAINLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND  
WESTERN ADKS WITH THE WARM FRONT, BUT DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR  
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS), BUT WILL  
RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) TO NEAR 70  
(VALLEYS).  
 
A TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST,  
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND  
UNDERGO STRENGTHENING WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING ALOFT. A STRONG  
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH, AND IS  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,  
THOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETERMINISTIC  
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY  
NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAIN  
WITH 50-70% PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 0.50" FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW  
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED  
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR, THEN VFR BY LATE  
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE  
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT  
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT AROUND AND AFTER  
SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...17  
SHORT TERM...17  
LONG TERM...17  
AVIATION...24  
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