096
FXUS61 KALY 151035
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, USHERING IN A DRY, COOL AND BREEZY AIR MASS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, COOL AND BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY
- FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR BELOW 35 DEGREES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, AND WAS WELL HINTED AT
ON GOES16 RGB NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO THE TUG HILL. ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, LOW CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE DUE TO
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED BELOW A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION NOTED ON
THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING, WITH SOME DRIZZLE EVEN NOTED ON KENX AND
SURFACE OBS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR CWA AS OF THIS WRITING WERE IN
THE 50S, BUT WERE FALLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR.
THROUGH DAYTIME TODAY, OVERCAST SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR. FCST SOUNDINGS HINT AT MIXING UP THE 850-800 HPA LAYER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL TAP INTO TO WINDS AROUND 25-35 KT AND RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO HINT AT NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15-25 MPH, WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES (10-20%) OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE 50S OUTSIDE OF
TERRAIN (HIGHS IN THE 40S) AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY (HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S).
FOR TONIGHT, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S (TERRAIN) TO MID AND UPPER 30S (VALLEYS). THANKFULLY,
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY FROST FORMATION.
THURSDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES, COOL
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS TERRAIN TO MID 50S IN VALLEYS)
AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH CONTINUED STRONG VERTICAL MIXING.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR CONCERNS FOR FIRE SPREAD
AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH RH VALUES IN THE 30% RANGE.
WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE FIRE PARTNERS TO DECIDE IF THERE WILL BE
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NBM FAVORING TEMPERATURES BELOW 35 DEGREES (25-90%) ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS ONGOING. PLEASE MONITOR
THE FORECAST AS FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
- STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE TO
START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED,
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER (< 15%) MAINLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN ADKS WITH THE WARM FRONT, BUT DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) TO MID 60S (VALLEYS), BUT WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN) TO NEAR 70
(VALLEYS).
A TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST,
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO IT WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND
UNDERGO STRENGTHENING WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING ALOFT. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH, AND IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
THOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAIN
WITH 50-70% PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 0.50" FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR, THEN VFR BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...24
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