332
FXUS61 KALY 022322
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
622 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN MINOR IMPACTS AS A RESULT OF SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
2) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CLIPPER SURFACE LOW SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD, CLOSELY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO OUR NORTH, FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. ALOFT, THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED CYCLONE WILL REMAIN MUCH
FARTHER TO OUR NORTH, EXTENDING A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ABOUT ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WITH
THE SLIGHT DEEPENING OF BOTH THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
CYCLONE, A FAIRLY STEEP AXIS OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE THE ENHANCEMENT TO ASCENT BOTH IN THE LOW- AND UPPER-
LEVELS, THIS WILL BE A RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED AND PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM. THEREFORE, WHILE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THIS CLIPPER, MUCH OF THE
SNOW WE SEE WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY MODERATE
IN NATURE WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MECHANISMS ACROSS SOME OF OUR
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS CAN ALSO ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS IN THE MID- TO LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR
A BAND OF MID- TO LOW-LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DURING
THIS SAME TIME, THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEPART FROM OVERHEAD
TO THE EAST, ALLOWING A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AND, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED DGZ,
THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS TO
EVEN SNOW SQUALLS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE PASSAGE OF
THE POTENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER LOW. STILL,
THESE WOULD NOT IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATLY AND BEING THAT
THEIR OCCURRENCE WOULD BE EARLY ON A WEEKEND DAY, THERE LUCKILY
WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A SOCIETAL IMPACT EITHER. IN FACT, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY
INDEX INDICATES LOW PROBABILITIES (5-20%) FOR EVEN MINOR IMPACTS
(A FEW INCONVENIENCES TO DAILY LIFE DUE TO WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS) ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE WHOLE OF THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR DAYS OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION UNFORTUNATELY ARE NUMBERED AS
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM, ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL ENVELOPE EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAEFS, BOTH 700HPA AND 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 TO NEARLY 2.5 STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT RANGE FROM ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL.
TO MAKE MATTERS FEEL WORSE, A LINGERING COLD ADVECTION REGIME
BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS A STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WILL ELEVATE WIND GUSTS. SO, NOT ONLY WILL
AIR TEMPERATURES BE VERY COLD, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES, OR
"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES, WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD
REGIONWIDE. AND WHILE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE LATEST
NBM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE QMD PROBABILITIES FOR <1F ARE ABOUT 20
TO 90% FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, 40-100% FOR SATURDAY NIGHT; AND 30-100%
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD THE NBM MAXIMUM WIND GUST FORECAST FOR
THESE TIME PERIODS VERIFY, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 10S
TO 20S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN 30S BELOW ZERO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT WIND
CHILL FORECAST. HOWEVER, KNOW THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
POTENTIALLY EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 6:20
PM SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE
SOURCES OF GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR
TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN LOW STRATUS WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 06Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING, SO HAVE ADDED TEMP GROUPS TO GIVE A
WINDOW FOR APPROXIMATE TIMING ON CIGS DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE IS
AT ALB/GFL/POU AS WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT PSF, BUT
WILL CONTINUE MENTION THERE TOO FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF. LOW
STRATUS LIKELY PERSISTS THROUGH 13-15Z BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIX
OUT, WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 1500-2500 FT THROUGH AROUND NOON AS
THE STRATUS DECK LIFTS. EXPECTING A TREND BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
GFL/POU THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING TO 3-6 KT
FROM THE S/SE. AT ALB/PSF, 4-8 KT WINDS FROM THE W/NW DIMINISH
TO 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 06Z, AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KT AGAIN
FROM THE S/SE AS WELL LATE TOMORROW MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...35
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