631
FXUS61 KALY 231055
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE VALLEYS. ALSO
LOWERED MAX/MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO MAV/NBM BLEND FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY, LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRI
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE MON INTO
THE MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 239 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH FAIR,
COOL AND DRY WEATHER. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER PATCHY MORNING
MIST/FOG BURNS OFF, MAX TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WE WENT CLOSER TO
THE COOLER MAVMOS GUIDANCE VALUES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. SOME PATCHY RADIATIVE MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEY AREAS FRI MORNING. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE 1025
HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRI AFTERNOON WILL YIELD LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE HIGH SLOWLY RETREATS EASTWARD
FRI NIGHT FOR YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT, WHERE WE BLENDED THE NBM
AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
TEMPS TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND WITH SOME WEAK
RIDGING NEAR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE RETURN
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SFC HIGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
MAJOR VALLEYS AND 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH MORNINGS.
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, AS HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST, AND HEAT INDICES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. OVERALL...A GREAT STRETCH OF LATE JULY
WEATHER FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MON INTO TUE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE EARLY IN THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR STRONG T-STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN ON MON. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NY AND
NEW ENGLAND TUE INTO WED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST NAEFS INDICATES LOW AND MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY FALL 2-3 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, ENSEMBLES AND NBM ALL
SUPPORT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TUE-
WED WITH POPS IN THE 55-75% RANGE. THE LATEST 01Z/23 NBM
INDICATES A 45-60% CHANCE >0.50" RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED FROM THE SFC LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. TEMP TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MON TO BELOW NORMAL BY WED BASED ON THE LATEST WPC FORECAST IN
DAYS 4 TO 7 OF THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES
WITH FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD 00Z/FRI. THE IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG TO FORM AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN
06Z-08Z. THESE ARE OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED SITES FOR
RADIATIVE FOG. FOR KALB, WE KEPT MVFR NOW AND WERE LESS
CONFIDENT FOR IFR MIST/FOG AND KPOU WE KEPT VFR.
THE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM BETWEEN 00Z-04Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
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