584
FXUS61 KALY 110633
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
233 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON THE
WEEKEND. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 233 AM EDT...
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF GRADUALLY IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING, AS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM
SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT IS HUNG UP NEAR W-CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. A
SFC TROUGH OF WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE LATEST 00Z HREFS HAS
MEAN SBCAPES IN THE 1000-1500+ J/KG RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-25 KT. PWATS
WILL BE IN THE 1.25-1.75" RANGE AGAIN. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELLS MAY DEVELOP BASED ON THE LATEST 3-KM
HRRR/NAMNEST/ARW-WRF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS FROM PCPN LOADING AND DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK.
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HOURLY RAINFALL RATES 1-2"/HR. BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN CATSKILLS
AND SOUTHERN VT SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL WITH 85-90F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS, AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE MAINLY BELOW 95F, AS FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL NICK THE MID
90S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WERE USED IN THE TEXT/GRIDDED PRODUCTS. SPC DROPPED THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY,
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL OCCURS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WEAKEN
AND GET HUNG UP OVER THE REGION IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING FOR
SOME REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70F.
MID AN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON SATURDAY. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL FOCUS SOME AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NBM HAD LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS. WE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND LOWERED INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS WEAK AT LESS THAN 20
KT. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MEAN SBCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE BASED ON THE HREFS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND WEST, BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR
MAYBE A ROGUE SEVERE THREAT AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID AND UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS IN THE HUMID AIR MASS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
MAINLY BELOW 95F IN THE VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.
ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING, AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO ABOUT 70F
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN BRIEFLY.
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY PM INTO THE EVENING. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE
USED WEST OF LAKE GEORGE AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY PM
WITH CHANCE VALUES ALONG AND TO THE EAST. THE TIMING OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT VARIES ON THE GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE TOWARDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS NEBULOUS HOW MUCH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY HAVE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INCREASING SHEAR. SOME HEAT INDICES IN
THE MID 90S MAY WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY ON SUNDAY, IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F WILL
BE COMMON BELOW 1000 FT IN ELEVATION AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
ABOVE THAT ELEVATION. THE PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WITH THE FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. WPC CONTINUES A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS FOR SATURDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS
WED-THU FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100F.
DISCUSSION:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS WARM AND HUMID WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED
HEATING MAY PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT. MAX TEMPS MAY BE
HELD DOWN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON MONDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PCPN. MID 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS.
THE SHOWERS/T-STORMS END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A DRYING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A MINOR RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID/UPPER 60S.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TUE INTO WED, AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE MID WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL
YIELD HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90F ON TUE. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK IN WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL
MIDWEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT INDICES DUE
TO COMBINATION OF MID 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MAY REACH IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IN TIME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR AT ALB/POU TO MVFR
AT PSF/GFL AS OF 1:05 AM EDT. WITH RAIN LAST EVENING AT GFL, PERIODS
OF FOG WITH IFR OR LOWER VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. AT ALB, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FOR
A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. AT POU, PATCHY STRATUS LOOKS MORE
LIKELY, WITH MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS EXPECTED. CIGS LOOK TO BE NEAR
1000 FT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE, SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
SOME IFR CIGS HERE. AT PSF, LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS AT
PSF ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR WITHIN A COUPE HOURS, THEN IMPROVE
BACK TO LOW-END MVFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THIS MORNING, ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS DISSIPATES BY EARLY TO MID-
MORNING, WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED. BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM LOOKS TO BE AT POU, WHERE A
PROB30 GROUP WAS INCLUDED. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT ALB/PSF, ONLY
INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS TIME, AND WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING FOR GFL AS
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER/STORM ARE LOWEST THERE. STORMS DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT 3-5 KT TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT TODAY
THEN DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...MAIN
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