631
FXUS61 KBTV 282032
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A CLASH OF AIR MASSES WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND
RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY, TRENDING TOWARDS RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN ON SUNDAY. A DRAMATIC WARM UP WITH SOME SHARP
RIVER RISES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 432 PM EDT FRIDAY...VERY CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO EVENTS TO FOCUS
ON, ONE OF WHICH IS A ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A WINTER
STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE
OF SEEING 7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE EVENT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 9 INCHES IN A ROUGHLY 50 TO 100 MILE
WIDE SWATH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING,
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG A STRONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE
LATERALLY TRANSLATING BAND IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE
3 AM TO 8 AM TIMEFRAME. IT SHOULD LIE JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALOFT GO ABOVE FREEZING, A LINE THAT WILL
WAFFLE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALLS.
MEANWHILE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, A LONG DURATION WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.
GIVEN MANY MITIGATING FACTORS TO GETTING HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS,
HAVE NOT UPGRADED ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THIS AREA TO A
WARNING, BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FREEZING RAIN RATHER THAN
MIXING WITH SLEET OR CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN. AREAS IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT ARE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT LARGELY THINK MID-SLOPE
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE QUITE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
STAYING BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH A WARM NOSE
ALOFT. ANYWHERE IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
BELOW FREEZING, AND ESPECIALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING, WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGH TONIGHT, AS ICE IMPACTS COULD
BE SERIOUS IF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEED 0.5" OF FLAT ICE.
WITH SUCH A STRONG WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS, SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN THE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN, WHICH WILL COULD ALSO LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT ICING DURING THIS PERIOD; SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM ASIDE FROM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS (NORTHWEST ASPECT)
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SHALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
STUBBORN. STORM TOTAL FLAT ICE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE 0.25" TO 0.5" RANGE IN MUCH OF THIS AREA IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS (EASTERN ADDISON AND RUTLAND, ORANGE, AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 432 PM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE AN UNPLEASANT
WEATHER DAY WITH EITHER A COLD RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON INCREASINGLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS, SUCH THAT MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WILL BECOME WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND WARMER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE REGION.
EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL REALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COLD, BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND BREAKS IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REDUCE IMPACTS IN ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EVEN IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT.
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK RELATIVELY
LIGHT COMPARED TO THE EARLIER PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THESE
AREAS MOST LIKELY SEEING 0.1-0.2" OF FLAT ICE. HOWEVER, AS WINDS
PICK UP, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH, THERE COULD BE
SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO UTILITIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SUCH THAT THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT, WHILE NON-ZERO, WILL DECREASE FURTHER. BY
DAYBREAK, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SHARPLY INTO THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S, WITH MUCH MORE HUMID AIR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS FINALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SPINE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND POINTS WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...THEREAFTER, A RELATIVELY QUIET,
THOUGH CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
DIFFICULTY LIES IN THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE POLAR FRONT,
WHICH WILL BE WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH NEAR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TIMING CHALLENGES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES IN ADDITION TO
CAPTURING THE OFTEN DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
CP AIRMASS WILL BOTH COME INTO PLAY DURING THE PERIOD. AT THIS
POINT, THE BEST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AFTER WHICH PREDICTABILITY DECREASES STEADILY. FOR NOW,
I'VE LEANED CLOSEST TO THE NATIONAL BLENDED/WPC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MAINLY 40S FOR HIGHS MON-FRI WITH ONE MILDER DAY INTO
THE 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, POST-FRONTAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
AGAIN BY WEEK'S END COULD CERTAINLY BE GREATER THAN WHAT IS
INDICATED, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN RETURNED CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z UNDER LIGHT WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 6-10 KTS AS CIGS TREND BKN IN THE
060-120 AGL RANGE OVER TIME. AFTER 00Z WIDESPREAD SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL WAX AND WANE,
THOUGH BE LARGELY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY A GIVEN DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MOST
TERMINALS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KSLK WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS SHOWN AFTER 05Z, AND FOR KRUT WHERE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL LARGELY AS LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH SLEET AT TIMES. WINDS TO GENERALLY TREND LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PERHAPS
A TAD STRONGER AT KMSS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
FZRA, LIKELY RA, CHANCE PL.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
DEFINITE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
LOCAL RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE MODEST, TO IN SOME CASES FAIRLY
SHARP RISES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL, CURRENT CREST FORECASTS
INDICATE RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE IN REACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR
FLOOD STAGE ARE TYPICAL CULPRITS INCLUDING THE AUSABLE, OTTER
CREEK AND MAD. AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES OF REACHING HIGHER
FLOOD STAGES REMAINS QUITE LOW, SO FROM AN OVERALL PERSPECTIVE
WIDESPREAD, HIGHLY IMPACTFUL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN TYPICAL NUISANCE LOWLAND FLOODING AREAS
ON THESE AND OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT SHOULD MONITOR CURRENT AND FUTURE
FORECASTS RELATED TO THIS EVENT.
CLIMATE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY
RECORDS, AS INDICATED BELOW.
DATE KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
03-29 0.82|1888 0.71|1954 0.67|2020 0.84|2020 0.71|2020 0.62|1932
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR VTZ001-002-004-005-009>011-016-018>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR VTZ003-006>008-017.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>030-034-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NYZ031.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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