511
FXUS61 KBTV 221408
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1008 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHES ACROSS OUR AREA, SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER WEATHER
WILL THEN RETURN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL HAVE SOME
RAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA, THEN MORE DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 956 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING AS WE
REMAIN UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME OF THESE HAVE BEEN
BRIEFLY HEAVY, DROPPING VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR LESS IN PLACES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION. OTHERWISE, IT'LL COLD TODAY
WITH BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE FORECAST HAS THIS ALL
PRETTY MUCH COVERED, SO OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS, NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL ALSO HAVE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE TO INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MAINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A LARGE RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN GREENS. WINDS WILL GUST TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS AT
LEAST 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS DATE.
QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA. AFOREMENTIONED
LOW REMAINS CUT OFF OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND SHUNTS CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH. WITH LOW STILL ANCHORED
TO THE NORTHEAST, WILL STILL SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR, LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL AND WILL SEE INCREASING SUNSHINE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS, WE'LL STILL SEE HIGHS REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 416 AM EDT THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WARMER AIR MOVES IN AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO LOW 40S. SATURDAY WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 413 AM EDT THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY, WILL SEE A TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US INTERACT WITH AN INTENSIFYING VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS ARE STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THE SYSTEM
WILL PLAY OUT, WITH SOME KEEPING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
SYSTEMS FROM INTERACTING AND OTHERS PHASING THE LOWS TO SOME
DEGREE, LEADING TO US SEEING RAINY DAY ON SUNDAY. THE ONE THING
THEY ALL AGREE UPON IS THAT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK TO BE
WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT
WITH SNOW RELEGATED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS START RATHER QUIET WITH SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BEFORE A BROAD RIDGE MOVES IN AND WE
TEMPS EVENTUALLY REACH 70S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOME OF
OUR TERMINALS, AND BRINGING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR,
CURRENTLY MSS AND SLK. AS THE DAY WEARS ON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE MAY HAVE IFR
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCUR. OTHERWISE,
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES. HAVE
TRIED TO INCLUDE VCSH TO TIME THE SNOW SHOWERS THE BEST THAT I
COULD AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE ALSO SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...VERASAMY
LONG TERM...VERASAMY
AVIATION...NEILES
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