977
FXUS61 KBTV 202108
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION, WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
10 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF LAKE ONTARIO, BRINGING SOME SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 408 PM EST MONDAY...DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TONIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25
BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS ON THE HIGHER SUMMITS EVEN COLDER WITH
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 BELOW ZERO. OUTSIDE OF THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BITTERLY COLD, WITH WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. TOMORROW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BITTERLY COLD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS, WITH WIND CHILLS CONTINUING TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. ANYONE PLANNING ON BEING OUTSIDE SHOULD DRESS
APPROPRIATELY, AS THESE TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FROSTBITE
ON ANY EXPOSED SKIN.
IN ADDITION TO THE BITTER COLD, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY, THE SNOW
BAND WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION TO BRING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING NORTHERN VERMONT. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY 20:1 OR HIGHER. THE
MAIN BAND AND GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE. LAKE EFFECT WILL
BEGIN TO WANE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 408 PM EST MONDAY...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MORNING STARTING OFF NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. SOME LIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH, ALTHOUGH TOTALS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 408 PM EST MONDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
IS FAVORED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
BUT SURFACE FLOW SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
HERALD A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WITH 925-850MB INCREASING BY AT
LEAST 10C. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S BY SATURDAY SEEM
REASONABLE WITH THIS RELATIVE PATTERN SHIFT. WITH A DEEPER SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN LIKELY TO DEVELOP, PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE
AS LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE TOWARDS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT DETAILS ARE VAGUE ON ACTUAL
AMOUNTS. ELSEWHERE, 15- 30% CHANCES WILL BE PERVASIVE WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN FAVORED WITH BETTER CHANCES. THIS ISN'T A PATTERN FOR LARGE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW. BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT, A FRONT WILL BEGIN
APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST BUMPING UP SNOW CHANCES WITH BREEZES
LIKELY TO INCREASE AS WELL.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL SITES
FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY, WITH SLK TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR
WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FORMING LATER THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF -SHSN IS EXPECTED AT SLK BY 04Z WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR LEVELS UNDER THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH PREVAILING MVFR OTHERWISE. THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS
EXPECTED TO TREND SOUTH OF SLK BY 16Z RETURNING CEILINGS TO MVFR
LEVELS AT 2000-3000 FT AGL. CEILINGS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BY 05Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BY 06Z WITH CALMING WINDS SPEEDS AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-007.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ030-031-034.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...BOYD
AVIATION...DANZIG
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