369
FXUS61 KBTV 212340
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT FROM 7
PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS
ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH BOTH EVENING
COMMUTES TO BE IMPACTED WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
1. SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY SNOWFALL, AND RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, INCLUDING FOR THE THURSDAY
EVENING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, AS
WELL.
2. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS
WEEK, WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -40F POSSIBLE. AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
3. WIDESPREAD SNOW INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: AS WE AWAIT SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, OUR FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SQUALLS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE UP TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING AND CROSS TO OUR
NORTH ON THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING
MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (LESS THAN 1 INCH) FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THERE'S NOT MUCH
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SB CAPE VALUES OF 50-
100 J/KG, SO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE LIKELY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
MIXING AS DEEP AS 650MB BEHIND THE FRONT, MORE THAN AMPLE ENOUGH TO
BRING SOME OF THE 50+ KT JET AT 850 MB DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WON'T BE ORGANIZED INTO A
LINE, EXPECT SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SQUALLS THURSDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1 IN/HR BRIEFLY WITH THESE SQUALLS,
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ONLY
SERVE TO BLOW ANY FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW AND MAKE TRAVEL THAT MUCH
MORE HAZARDOUS. ANYONE TRAVELING TOMORROW, INCLUDING DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE, SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGHLY VARIABLE ROAD
CONDITIONS, WITH SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND
SNOW-COVERED ROADS WITH LITTLE WARNING IN SQUALLS. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE IS THE INCOMING AIRMASS ISN'T BITTERLY COLD, SO WE
DON'T ANTICIPATE A FLASH FREEZE WITH THESE SQUALLS. OVERALL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE 1 TO 3 INCHES, PERHAPS HIGHER
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
UNFORTUNATELY, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SQUALLS ON FRIDAY AS A
SECONDARY, ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. TIMING WOULD BE MUCH
THE SAME, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, JUST IN TIME FOR
EVERYONE HEADING HOME FOR THE DAY. LIKE THURSDAY, BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL, SO PLEASE PLAN AHEAD IF YOU WILL BE OUT ON THE ROADS.
.KEY MESSAGE 2:CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO
GROW; SO MUCH SO THAT WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, EFFECTIVE FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE.
925MB TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH -30C, WITH OVERNIGHT AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ISSUE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP US MIXED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY'S DAYTIME GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT WITH LOWS TO BE -5F
TO -20F, EVEN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILLS. AS IT IS, GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY STILL 5-10 MPH BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WIND
CHILLS OF -20F TO -40F ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS TO BE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF OUR AREA MAY NOT REACH EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA (-30F), IT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD FOR ANYONE WHO
MIGHT BE OUTDOORS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IF
YOU ARE UNABLE TO AVOID BEING OUTSIDE, MAKE SURE TO WEAR PLENTY
OF WARM CLOTHING, INCLUDING HATS AND MITTENS OR GLOVES. AND
DON'T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS; BRING THEM INSIDE IF ABLE. IF NOT,
MAKE SURE THEY HAVE ADEQUATE SHELTER FROM THE COLD.
WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD, TRENDS ARE LESS
CERTAIN, AS INCOMING CLOUD COVER WOULD HAVE A LARGER ROLE TO PLAY IN
JUST HOW COLD WE GET. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MIGHT BE
NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WIDESPREAD SNOW INCREASING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW HAS IT STAYING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, TAKING A CLOSE TO IDEAL STORM TRACK FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LARGE WITH THIS EVENT, EXTENDING SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL REMAINS TO THE SOUTH, AND THAT THE REGION
RECEIVES A MORE GLANCING BLOW. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY MONDAY. IN GENERAL, THE EURO
AND CAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A NORTHERN SNOWIER TRACK AND THE GEFS
MEMBERS FAVOR A DRIER SOUTHERN TRACK. CURRENT COMBINED GEFS/EURO/CAN
PROBABILITIES OF REACHING CERTAIN SNOWFALL THRESHOLDS USING A SNOW
RATIO BETWEEN 15-20:1 AS FORECAST BY THE NBM ARE AS FOLLOWS:
SOUTHERN AREAS
2" 70-90%
6" 50-70%
12" 20-40%
NORTHERN AREAS
2" 50-80%
6" 20-40%
12" 0-10%
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MODERATE SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT IS RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH VISIBILITIES 1/2SM-2SM.
PREVAILING SNOW MAY ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE TAPERING TO
SUMMITS OR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000
FT AGL INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHERLY
IF IT'S NOT THERE YET WITH WIND SPEEDS ABOUT 6 TO 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS 16 TO 21 KNOTS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z AS A TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE TROUGH, AND LLWS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER IT PASSES. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY -00Z FRIDAY. PROB30S ARE
NOTED FOR MOST TERMINALS FOR THIS TROUGH, AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES AND GUSTY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 3500-7000 FT AGL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY: MVFR. CHANCE SN.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY; BELOW
ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS:
KBTV (BURLINGTON AREA): -4 IN 1907
KPBG (PLATTSBURGH AREA): 0 IN 1976
KSLK (SARANAC LAKE AREA): -10 IN 1936
KMSS (MASSENA): -5 IN 2004
KMPV (MONTPELIER): 0 IN 2004
SJBV1 (ST. JOHNSBURY): -3 IN 1907
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
DISCUSSION...HASTINGS/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...HAYNES
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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