714
FXUS61 KBTV 181152
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER
OFF ON TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS RETURNING FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 610 AM EST TUESDAY...WINDS ARE COMING DOWN OVER LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TO WARRANT THE REMOVAL OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
SPEEDS AROUND 20KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE FOR THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING SPEEDS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO COOL OVERNIGHT DUE TO MOST LOCATIONS
STAYING MIXED; THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MANY SPOTS RATHER THAN MID/UPPER 20S.
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DID DECOUPLE, SO SOME SPOTS WERE ABLE TO
RADIATE OUT MORE EFFICIENTLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED DIRECTLY ON
SLOPES AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
GREENS. DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WIN OUT DECREASING SHOWERS FURTHER THIS
MORNING WITH SOME FLURRIES LINGERING OVER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND
POSSIBLY ADJACENT TO EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES; HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE 30S WARMING TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR
BROADER VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. LOWS ARE LIKELY
TO BE MARGINALLY COOLER AS SKIES CLEAR. COLDEST HOLLOWS COULD
DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS (AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
SHOULD CONDITIONS ALIGN IDEALLY - WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER) WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S, COMPARATIVELY MILD GIVEN
RECENT CONDITIONS, AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST TUESDAY...OUR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION STILL IS ON
TRACK TO END ON FRIDAY AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OCCUR AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. WHILE SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN, CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AT
THE ONSET, THE STRONG CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS LIKE A PLAIN
RAIN SCENARIO ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY DEEP AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
WARMING. CONSENSUS OF A LOW TRACK FAR TO OUR NORTH/WEST, AND NO
PHASING TO SUPPORT SECONDARY LOW FORMATION TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT, SEEMS TO LIMIT HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS SUB-FREEZING AIR
ALOFT RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY.
THAT BEING SAID, SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL PROBABLY RETURN (925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 30TH PERCENTILE), WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WITH A DEEPENING LOW SCENARIO AND GREATER COLD AIR
ADVECTION, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD BE ANOTHER UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWER PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT SYSTEM, PREDICTABILITY OF ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY LOW.
GENERALLY NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT
LARGELY UNREMARKABLE WITH NO ANOMALIES NOTED AT THIS TIME WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, OR WIND IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
DATA. AS SUCH, EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT ELEVATION DEPENDENT
SNOW/RAIN DEPENDING ON STORM TRACK, A LOT OF CLOUDINESS, AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIVEN BY CEILINGS, WHICH ASIDE FOR PBG, ARE IN THE 700 TO 3100
FEET RANGE. IFR ONLY EXPECTED AT SLK, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES GREATLY DECREASE BY
18Z (TO NEAR 10%), SUGGESTING SOMETIME IN THE 16-18Z PERIOD
WE'LL SEE THE END OF IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, MORE THAN OTHER
SITES, EFK WILL BE AFFECTED TODAY BY MORE IMPULSES OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THESE CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY MSS, SLK, AND EFK. BLOCKED FLOW WILL KEEP INTERVALS
OF BKN CIGS GOING AT RUT AND BTV, ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE 3000 FEET. LITTLE CHANGE AFTER 00Z WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE SUPPORTING MORE MVFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 11 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AND THESE
WINDS SHOULD PEAK THROUGH 16Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: MVFR. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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