511
FXUS61 KBTV 300120
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
820 PM EST SUN JAN 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT; SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE
RAIN AND A RAIN SNOW MIX. WINDS WILL SWITCH NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SHARPLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL FRONTS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 820 PM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS COME TO AN
END. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS MADE. A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTH. BTV SAW A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM 38F AT 6 PM
TO 26F AT 7 PM WITH A 6 DEGREE DROP IN JUST 5 MINUTES. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY, THIS
SHARP DROP IN TEMPS WILL PRESENT THE THREAT FOR A FLASH FREEZE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND WE'VE ISSUED A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS. OTHERWISE, LINGERING RAIN CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY CHANGE TO
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW
YORK THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BY MORNING, MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS FOR TEMPS WITH SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
LOWER CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUITE A DEFINITIVE BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT
SEPARATING AREAS OF SNOW AND A RAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN BURLINGTON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE PLATTSBURGH IS
MAINTAINING NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES.
FARTHER SOUTH, RUTLAND HAS WARMED TO AN ASTOUNDING 48 DEGREES, 25
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORMING'S LOW. FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
KEEPING OUR CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY AS WELL AS MONDAY'S WEAK
WAVE.
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO EXPECTED
TOTALS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES REPORTED BY MESONETS SO FAR, AND ANOTHER
ROUND POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO EXPECTED TOTALS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,
SNOW WAS SLOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING FOR LOCATIONS MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE UP TO ANOTHER INCH THIS EVENING, BUT PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN PROGGED TO MOVE OUT MORE QUICKLY AND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY REAL IMPACTFUL AMOUNTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS
FOR NORTHERN VERMONT WILL BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIP BACK SOUTHWARD; THIS COUPLE
PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO. WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE, SO SOME ICY SPOTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH OPEN 500-700MB CONSOLIDATED TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN BEING FAVORED, WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT THE THIS WAVE HAS LESS SUPPORT AND MOISTURE THAN
TODAY'S SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO FORM OFF OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN GIVEN 15+ DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 354 PM EST SUNDAY...POST-FRONTAL COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CHARACTERIZE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING 5-10 DEGREES F FROM WHAT
THEY WERE MONDAY AND BRINGING THE FORECAST AREA WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID- TO UPPER TEENS F MOST
SPOTS AND LOWER 20S F FOR THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEYS. MODELS ARE COMING TO RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -21 TO -17 C RANGE.
THIS COLD COULD BE ACCENTUATED BY WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND NEGATIVES OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS. GUSTS COULD BE 15-20 MPH AT THEIR PEAK. WE HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON
TERRAIN AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN, TAPERING OFF THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN DESPITE DAYTIME
HEATING POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS. TUESDAY
COULD ALSO FEATURE A MOVE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE OVERHEAD, BRINGING ABOUT A DRY NIGHT WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE NEGATIVES OR AROUND 0 F OUTSIDE THE
WIDER VALLEYS, COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE WIDER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS F, BUT APPARENT TEMPERATURES
COULD FALL BELOW ZERO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD BRIEFLY BRUSH SOUTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY FROM LAKE ONTARIO WITH WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, ACCUMULATING ONLY A DUSTING TO A QUARTER INCH (MOSTLY
CHC POPS). THIS IS SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN WE WERE PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTING PRECIP TO BEGIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 354 PM EST SUNDAY...ONLY MINOR AND LOCATION-SPECIFIC
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY WEATHER. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW COULD CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH
DUSTING, MAINLY UPSLOPE/TERRAIN AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
CLOSEST TO BEST FORCING WENT WITH CHC TO SLIGHT CHC. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MILDER THAN TUESDAY, CONSIDERING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A STORM TO THE SOUTH BULGING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID-20S WEDNESDAY, THEN AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 30S IN WIDER VALLEYS
THURSDAY, AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
THURSDAY NIGHT, MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FLUSHED OUT AS AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A POLAR VORTEX PUSHING THROUGH NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE NEGATIVES AGAIN OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS, WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL AGAIN
CONTRIBUTE TO THE BITTER COLD, TURNING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES EARLY IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS (NEARING LIKELY POPS) BUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE WIDESPREAD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THERE'S
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALLS WITH SUCH A POTENT
BOUNDARY BEING SHOWN ON GLOBAL MODELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALREADY
INDICATING INTENSE GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND A SATURATED SNOW GROWTH LAYER. WE HAVE FORECAST GUSTS UP TO 20-
25 MPH.
BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
TEENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOUNTAIN AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGER IN THE MORNING WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH. ENSEMBLE MODELS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE HEART OF
THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH THE GEFS SHOWING 2 METER TEMPS AS LOW AS
-30 F IN NORTHERN SPOTS AND MOUNTAINS. THE CMC ENSEMBLES ARE STILL A
BIT WARMER, WITH TEMPS -17 TO -15 F AT THE COLDEST. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS CONFIDENCE IN DEEPLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND CALM WINDS, WE ARE FORECASTING NEGATIVE TEENS FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY, BUT -20S FOR
MOST SPOTS ELSEWHERE, COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE COULD
BE SOME CLEARING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY PLUMMET BEFORE THE SUN RISES.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT REACH ABOVE 10 F ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SEVERAL SPOTS IN THE NEGATIVES FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AS SUNNY SKIES RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW AND AIR TO WATER INSTABILITY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN COULD
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY DIAMOND DUST. WE'LL CONTINUE
MONITORING THE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR -30 F AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN LOWER ON THE MOUNTAINTOPS. A COUPLE RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUMS
TEMPERATURES COULD BE CHALLENGED ON SATURDAY, INCLUDING PLATTSBURGH
(RECORD 13 IN 2009, FORECAST 4) AND NEWCOMB (RECORD 8 IN 1996,
FORECAST 3), NEW YORK. FORTUNATELY FOR THE COLD-AVERSE, THIS ARCTIC
BLAST IS LOOKING BRIEF WITH HIGHS MODERATING TO END THE WEEKEND IN
THE MID-20S TO AROUND 30 F. THE COLD AIR WILL BE QUICKLY SWEPT OUT
EAST, REPLACED BY A DEEP TROUGH CAREENING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
AND A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD SUNDAY, RESULTING IN CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE MVFR WITH ANY SITES CURRENTLY LOWERING TO MVFR AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IFR SNOW WILL END AT
KMSS WITHIN THE HOUR, AND BRIEF IFR SNOW IS LIKELY AT KPBG AND
KBTV FROM 01-04Z BUT OTHERWISE VSBY SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A BRIEF LIFT TO VFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT
KBTV/KEFK/KMPV FROM 12-16Z, BUT FALL BACK TO MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH GENERALLY NNW OVERNIGHT, AND VRB TO SW TOMORROW,
ALL LESS THAN 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...STORM
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
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