970
FXUS61 KBTV 190612
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
1. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW SQUALLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
2. DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
BY SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES AND/OR WIND CHILLS
FALLING BELOW -20 DEGREES ARE OVER 50% IN MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT.
3. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS BAND WILL
WAVE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS, BUT BECOME MOST
PERSISTENT OVER SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WINDING DOWN ON TUESDAY AS THE BAND SINKS
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THAT AREA WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SQUALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME DECENT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SQUALL ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM 21Z MON TO 03Z TUE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
.KEY MESSAGE 2: A LARGE CHUNK OF EXTREME COLD, ARCTIC AIR WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CANADA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE TELECONNECTIONS (DEFINED GLOBAL WEATHER PATTERNS) ARE
STRONGLY FAVORING A HIGHLY NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND
NEGATIVE (BUT TRENDING NEUTRAL) PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN
OSCILLATION, WHICH SETS UP A PATTERN FOR PERSISTENT COLD IN OUR
REGION WITH LOW CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS. WHILE ONLY A
PIECE OF THE TRULY BITTER COLD IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MORE NOTABLE COLD IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND SOME OF THE COLDER AIR IS FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, HOWEVER, WHICH LEADS TO A
SOMEWHAT MUTED SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ANOMALIES FOR LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE MIXED SIGNALS ARE SOMEWHAT RELATED TO
THE INTENSITY OF COLD BUT ALSO AS TO WHETHER THE EXTREME COLD
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY OR IS DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. AS OF
NOW, SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY LOOKS MORE FAVORED FOR EXTREME COLD,
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NBM.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 7 DEGREES ON SUNDAY HERE AT BTV
WOULD BE THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
JANUARY 2022. DURING ONE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THAT MONTH, WIND CHILLS
WERE BELOW -30 AND ANALYZED 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES IN THE
-26 TO -28 CELSIUS RANGE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE MACHINE
LEARNING/AI-GFS SUPPORTS THE COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN SATURDAY
NIGHT WHEN MEAN 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN TO -28
CELSIUS IN NORTHERNMOST VERMONT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THIS IS
NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF ITS ENSEMBLE, SO NOT NECESSARILY
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. AS A CONSENSUS, LOWEST
FORECAST WIND CHILLS DURING THIS EVENT ARE STILL QUITE COLD
RIGHT NOW, RANGING FROM -15 TO -25 IN MOST OF OUR REGION. ALL
TOGETHER, EXPECT COLD WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
.KEY MESSAGE 3: AHEAD OF A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS, INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW SQUALLS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MOST IMPACTFUL EVENT MAY BE DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, WHEN ORGANIZED SNOW SQUALLS ARE MOST FAVORED
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING, SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR ICY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS OPPOSED TO JUST
SLIPPERY. BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING THEY COULD AFFECT BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE. AHEAD OF THESE POTENTIAL SQUALLS,
HIGHER PROBABILITY (6 HOURLY POPS AS HIGH AS 50- 80%) BUT LESS
INTENSE TYPES OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAVORED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR. THEN AFTER THE
THURSDAY EVENT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MUCH MORE UNCLEAR
WITH NO CLEAR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED TROUGHS TO ORGANIZE
SNOW. GENERALLY THE PATTERN WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MORE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW CHANCES. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
BE LAKE ONTARIO INDUCED LAKE-EFFECT WHEN FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY
AND THEN POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
AS FLOW TRENDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWS AND POCKETS OF LOWER
CEILINGS HAVE BROUGHT SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. KRUT HAS THE
BEST CHANCES TO SEE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
ALTHOUGH OTHER TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS COULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TOWARDS MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING.
AFTER 21Z, A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. SOME HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KMSS.
WINDS WILL TREND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FORECAST PERIOD
PROGRESSES, BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ029-087.
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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