621
FXUS61 KBTV 272342
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022
SYNOPSIS
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT, BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD.
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BRINGING LOCALIZED FREEZES AND
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SLV ATTM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTTING OUR CWA.
HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS, BUT OVERALL IDEA OF
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOOKS
REASONABLE. TEMPS ARE HOLDING MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH JUST A SLOW
AND STEADY DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S
EXPECTED BY MORNING. ALL ELEMENTS ARE COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.
ANY ADDITIONAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
MORE LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CHURNING
JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD. PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AS PWATS REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST. POPS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, HIGHEST (40-50%) IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE STRONGEST. WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH THICK CLOUD COVER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK KEEPING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES A TOUCH WARMER. MEANWHILE IN VERMONT, CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY RELENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FOG TO BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
USUAL SPOTS, DEPENDING ON WHERE RAIN FALLS.
WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION,
TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. AS THIS
FRONT CROSSES LAKE CHAMPLAIN, THERE CAN BE SOME LAKE-BASED CAPE TO
DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTHEAST, WITH POPS 40-
50%. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN ALSO SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. WEDNESDAY IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
POPS WILL DECREASE SHARPLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCES IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT WITH 20-30% AND
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE A
PARTICULARLY COLD ONE AS AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME SPOTS IN THE 30S. THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE THE 0C 850MB LINE WILL ENTER
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 341 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
ON THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR DEEP RIDGING TO EXPAND INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS NOT SUPER TIGHT, SO NOT
EXPECTING THURSDAY TO BE TOO BREEZY. MOST AREAS SHOULD JUST SEE
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH, LOCALLY
AROUND 10 MPH ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. DESPITE THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, WE WILL STILL SEE MORNING CLOUDS TO START THE DAY AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION, BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE DAY
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.
WITH REGARDS TO THURSDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST, HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF RESULTANT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT RAPID COOLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, AND BELOW FREEZING
FURTHER WEST IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE HIGH WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 341 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SETTING UP A GREAT END OF THE WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AND
CONDITIONS WON'T BE AS CHILLY AS THURSDAY. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHILE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY
DROP TO THE LOW 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...MID 30S LOCALLY IN THE
COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED FROST IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
AS THE INITIAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS, ANOTHER STRONGER HIGH
WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM EASTERN CANADA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE THIS STRONG HIGH SUPPRESSING ANY MOISTURE FROM IAN TO OUR
SOUTH, THOUGH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SETUP JUST TO
OUR SOUTH UNDER THIS PATTERN ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND DRY CANADIAN AIR FROM THE
NORTH. TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN THROW ALL KINDS OF WRENCHES INTO THE
MODELS, SO WE AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS YET WITH REGARDS TO
ANY IMPACTS FROM IAN, BUT AT THIS POINT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM IAN OTHER THAN SOME NORTHERN PERIPHERY CLOUD COVER IN
OUR CURRENT FORECASTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IAN, PLEASE SEE THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
WITH THE SECOND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND SOME CRISP
NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, EXCEPT MVFR
CIGS AT SLK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THINKING CIGS
WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 02-04Z WITH POTENTIAL IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT MPV/EFK AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 12Z
WEDS. AT SLK, THINKING THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF IFR CIGS BY 02Z WITH PREVAILING
CONDITIONS BY 06Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL WEDS MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
PRODUCTION AT MOST SITES WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD POSSIBLE AT
MPV TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A MIX OF MVFR/VFR DEVELOPS BY 15Z
AT MOST SITES WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
CLEANING AND REFURBISHMENT OF THE KMPV STATION WILL REQUIRE THE
SYSTEM TO BE TURNED OFF DURING THE PROCESS, BUT SERVICE WILL
RETURN IN BETWEEN MAINTENANCE SESSIONS.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STORM
NEAR TERM...TABER/STORM
SHORT TERM...DUELL
LONG TERM...DUELL
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...BOYD
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