999
FXUS61 KBTV 192334
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT, BUT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PARTS OF
VERMONT FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BEFORE MORE WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 131 PM EST FRIDAY...A NEW WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN NY AND AREAS EAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE FROM
21Z TO 12Z SATURDAY FOR GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH AND ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
SFC ANALYSIS PLACES POWERFUL SUB 980MB LOW PRES NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER, WITH SHARP COLD FRNT EXITING VT. PEAK WIND
GUSTS INCLUDE 76 MPH AT LAKE PLACID, 73 MPH SOUTH LINCOLN, AND 66
MPH IN WESTFIELD, WITH NEARLY 22K IN VT WITHOUT POWER THIS
AFTN. MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPS WERE BROKEN TODAY, INCLUDING BTV
REACHING 63F.
FOR TONIGHT, STRONG LLVL CAA PREVAILS WITH DEEPENING MIXING PROFILES
AS LOW PRES CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN CANADA. PROGGED
850MB WINDS ARE 50 TO 60 KNOTS, WITH TOP OF MIXED LAYER BTWN 40 AND
50 KNOTS, SUPPORTING LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ON EAST SIDE OF
THE GREENS AND EASTERN DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE DACKS. AS INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AND LOWERS OVERNIGHT, THIS WL HELP TO SQUEEZE GUSTY
WINDS ON FAVORABLE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WIND PROFILES
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY 12Z SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES IS BUILDING INTO OUR CWA. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH MATURE CYCLONE MOVES ACRS OUR
CWA BTWN 21Z AND 00Z THIS EVENING, BEFORE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE FOCUS
SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOPS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BTWN 00Z-06Z. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH OF OUR CWA TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 06Z, WHICH WL LIMIT OVERALL UPSLOPE SNOW
ACCUMULATION, AS SFC RIDGING IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE SLV.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THRU 06Z THIS EVENING
RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES ACRS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR SUMMITS.
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE CPV THRU THE
EVENING COMMUTE, AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS LAGGING BY 3 TO 5 HOURS.
HOWEVER, AREAS OF SLICK TRAVEL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHER
TRRN ABOVE 1000 FEET THRU THIS EVENING, AS TEMPS DROP BELOW
FREEZING AND ANY STANDING WATER REFREEZES.
ON SAT BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 15Z WITH
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ANTICIPATED AND MAYBE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 131 PM EST FRIDAY...NEXT 995MB CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES TO
OUR NORTH ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING AND A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. THE TRACK OF SFC
LOW PRES AND ORIENTATION/STRENGTH OF 925MB TO 850MB WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST LIMITED PRECIP/SNOWFALL ACRS OUR CWA, MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO
DACKS/NORTHERN GREENS. PROGGED 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
SUPPORTS DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING HERE IN THE CPV, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS
35 TO 45 MPH LIKELY. A NON-DIRNUAL TEMP CURVE IS LIKELY ON SAT NIGHT
WITH VALUES WARMING OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE WINDS. SFC COLD FRNT SWEEPS
ACRS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES AND
BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. A SECONDARY SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE. A LIGHT AND FLUFFY COUPLE OF INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 131 PM EST FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM HAS TWO PREDOMINANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST COMES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM TRACKS, WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH WARM AIR MAKES IT TO OUR
CWA. THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
LESS SNOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHILE THE SOUTHERN ROUTE SHOWN BY
THE GFS WOULD BRING A MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW EVENT. IN EITHER CASE, THE
SYSTEM SEEMS LIKE IT WILL DELIVER A WHITE CHRISTMAS. FOLLOWING
CHRISTMAS, WE'RE STARTING TO FOCUS IN ON A SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION. THE INITIAL LOOK PUTS US WELL INTO THE
WARM AIR, WITH SLEET TURNING TO RAIN LATER IN THE DAY FOLLOWED WITH
SNOW RETURNING ON THE BACK END.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY A MIX OF VFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, FALLING PRIMARILY AS SNOW.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSLK. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE TRENDING
BACK TOWARDS VFR BY MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
WIND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS 12Z, BECOMING FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AGAIN AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN, CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MVFR AND IFR. DEFINITE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
EXPECT LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODEST RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT DUE TO TODAY'S RAINFALL/SNOWMELT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING EARLIER TODAY, THE THREAT OF
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLOODING IS LOW OUTSIDE AREAS OF STANDING WATER
AND/OR PONDING. A FEW OF THE MORE NOTABLE RIVERS, SUCH AS THE
AUSABLE, MAD AND OTTER CREEK SHOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
REACHING BANKFULL STAGE, YET EVEN IN THESE LOCATIONS, CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MODERATE OF REACHING THESE LEVELS. UNTIL HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES
EAST THIS AFTERNOON, MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND ADJUST SPEEDS
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STANDING WATER/PONDING.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
WAVES WILL BE 2 TO 5 FEET ON THE BOARD LAKE. WINDS QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET TODAY (DEG. F):
TODAY OLD RECORD/YEAR
KBTV 63 49/1895
KMPV 52 49/1949
KPBG 59 49/1967
KMSS 58 55/1957
KSLK 52 45/1990
RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION (IN.)/YEAR:
KBTV 0.62/1912 BROKEN (FINAL TOTAL AT LOCAL MIDNIGHT)
KMPV 0.35/1998 BROKEN (FINAL TOTAL AT LOCAL MIDNIGHT)
KPBG 0.17/1970 BROKEN (FINAL TOTAL AT LOCAL MIDNIGHT)
KMSS 0.43/1970 ---
KSLK 0.70/1912 ---
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-
010-019>021.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LANGBAUER
AVIATION...KREMER
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...TEAM BTV
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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