457
FXUS61 KBTV 111123
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 306 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 306 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. DRY TODAY, WITH NEXT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
2. A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
3. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS
SETTING UP AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 306 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: FOLLOWING AN ACTIVE EVENING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION, TODAY
WILL BE A REPRIEVE WITH ONLY MODEST WIND GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
REFRESHING WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN FROM A HEAVILY
MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS, WITH SOME OF THE DEEPER MIXING SUPPORTING A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH, ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF
GUSTS DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MEAGER INSTABILITY
AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL YIELD NEAR ZERO POPS FOR OUR ENTIRE
REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS SOME VARIETY OF TROUGH WILL SWING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND WITH A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
IT IN SOUTHERN CANADA, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH GREATEST
CHANCES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM IN OUR AREA
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW (UNDER 1000 J/KG), DRIVEN BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WHILE HUMIDITY NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS MUTED
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS ALONG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE, THE THREAT OF EITHER HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP, AND
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR NORTH, THE GREATEST THREAT OF
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THUNDERSTORMS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE DAY. THE TIMING IN THE LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS) FOR ANY HEAVIER VARIETY OF SHOWERS GENERALLY LOOKS AFTER 2
PM, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES BETWEEN AROUND 5 AND 8 PM. THE SWATH
FOR THESE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY IN NORTHERN VERMONT, WITH AGAIN LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR, DEPENDENT ON HOW
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ANY OF THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN CANADA EARLIER
IN THE DAY WIND UP BEING. REMNANTS OF THOSE STORMS WOULD PROVIDE US
WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH OTHERWISE QUIET
WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REMAIN RATHER
SEASONABLE WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES, WHICH
LOOK NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, SUPPORTING HIGHS EACH DAY IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SEASONABLY POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR
OR NORTH OF THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE WEATHER MORE
UNCERTAIN AND RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT EVENTS. MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY THE INGREDIENTS DON'T
LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GIVEN THE DOMINANCE OF POLAR INFLUENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER AIR FLOW
AND WESTERLY RATHER THAN SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE WINDS, LIMITING DEEP
MOISTURE WITH LACK OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES. WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE
WEATHER, SEASONABLY WARM AIR AND HEIGHT FALLS STILL WILL SUPPORT
SOME CAPE, PRESENTING A LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT OR EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. THE
LATEST BLEND OF MODELS SHOWS A SWATH OF MODERATE RAINFALL (0.5" TO
1") ROUGHLY FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY, NEW YORK EASTWARD TO FRANKLIN
COUNTY, VERMONT, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TRENDING SOUTHWARD, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS NON-
EXISTENT (PROBABILITIES OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1" ARE UNDER 5% IN 24
HOURS).
KEY MESSAGE 3: MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CLOSING OFF OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF VERMONT FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS AS MARITIME AIR WRAPS
AROUND THE LOW. HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN THE
TRIGGERING OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
OVER THE WEEKEND, MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES THE LOW ALONG THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUPPORTS WARMER HIGHS FOR BROAD VALLEYS
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WHILE DEW POINTS DRY FURTHER REMAINING MORE IN
THE 40S. OVERALL, THESE CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE NEAR IDEAL
WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
KEEPS THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
13Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLY LINGERING AT SLK
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 10-20KTS 14-22Z. MORE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT, BUT SOME WINDS ALOFT
MAY KEEP IT AT BAY UNTIL AFTER 06Z WITH SLK/MPV HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF IFR OR LOWER 06-12Z AS STRATUS FORMS; SOME
CHANCES OF IFR VIS AT MPV DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG OF A SURFACE
INVERSION FORMS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KUTIKOFF
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/BOYD
AVIATION...BOYD
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