292  
FXUS61 KBTV 180725  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
325 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY, AND REMAIN  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL  
NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND FROST IS EXPECTED EACH  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.  
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH A WEAK  
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...ASIDE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES, THE  
NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY QUIET. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM TODAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY, FINALLY CRESTING OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.  
THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING, FROM THE REMNANTS  
OF TC SALLY. THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT  
INTERESTING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG FORMING BRIEFLY IN DIFFERENT  
SPOTS, AND EVEN SOME LOW CEILINGS FOR A SHORT TIME. AS THE HIGH  
BUILDS INTO OUR AREA TODAY, WE'LL SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST  
TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY AS WE  
AREA STILL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH  
CROSSED THE REGION YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE  
THROUGH THE 50S TO AROUND 60. EXPECT A NORTHERLY BREEZE (10-20  
MPH) DURING THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND  
CHANNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (GUSTS 15-25 MPH IN THESE  
AREAS). WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE  
EXCEPTION BEING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHICH WILL SEE LOWS UPPER  
30S TO LOW 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR ANY  
SHELTERED AREAS TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME FROST.  
FROST HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF  
THE AREA, THOUGH HAVE HELD OFF AT THIS POINT SINCE WE ALREADY  
HAVE A FROST HEADLINE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR THE  
CURRENT TIMEFRAME. SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR  
SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDES CLOSER TO OUR REGION.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS  
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 304 AM EDT FRIDAY...A 1034-1036 MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS  
THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL  
WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT  
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH ALL LOCATIONS  
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT  
WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3 TO -4 DEGREES C, WE WILL  
LIKELY SEE FROST ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. THE BIGGEST  
QUESTION MARK SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE JUST HOW COLD OUR COLDER  
HOLLOWS GET WITH SIGN THAT SARANAC LAKE MAY ACTUALLY DROP INTO THE  
TEENS. NEVERTHELESS, THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH  
COUNTRY LOOKS TO BE COMING TO AN END WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED IN  
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.  
SLIGHTLY MORE MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS  
STILL 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 4 TO 5  
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 304 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. THE  
ONLY WILD CARD FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TRACK OF HURRICANE TEDDY  
AND WHETHER OR NOT IT PUSHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NEW ENGLAND  
COASTLINE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE CONSENSUS  
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES (MINUS THE ECMWF) KEEPS THE  
SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA. ITS HARD TO IMAGINE THIS SYSTEM FINDING A  
WAY TO CURVE FAR ENOUGH WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVERHEAD IS QUITE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAEFS  
GUIDANCE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WON'T COME UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN YET  
ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE  
COMMON THEME OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO, THE BEST DYNAMICS AND  
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER (NEAR  
JAMES BAY) WHICH WILL PUT US ON THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION.  
IN THE MEAN TIME, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH  
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,  
EXCEPT FOR IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AT RUT. CEILINGS WILL BE  
IMPROVING TOWARDS SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY  
FROM 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME NORTHERLY 7-12 KTS AFTER  
12Z FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. AREAS FROST.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NEILES  
NEAR TERM...NEILES  
SHORT TERM...CLAY  
LONG TERM...CLAY  
AVIATION...NEILES  
 
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