921
FXUS61 KBTV 041156
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 152 AM EST TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
DEPART THIS MORNING TO THE NORTHEAST AS A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION. GOES-19 WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES -1 TO -2C, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS UNDER ANY PASSING SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY AT JAY PEAK AND MT. MANSFIELD. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN TOPIC OF
CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUANCE OF GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH FLOW ALOFT 35 TO 50 MPH IN THE 925 TO 850MB LEVELS. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH EFFICIENT
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES TREND MORE DRY ADIABATIC WITH A
DRYING OUT OF THE SURFACE TO MID LEVEL AIR COLUMN. WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST DOMINANT, THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN GREENS. LOCATIONS
FROM STOWE TO LUDLOW IN VERMONT, AND PLATTSBURGH TO TICONDEROGA IN
NEW YORK WILL SEE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY WINDS.
GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH ARE REASONABLE WITH TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 45 TO 50 MPH, WITH BOTTOM LAYER TO 30 MPH. A FEW
POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF MORE MODEST CAA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND COOLER BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA INCREASING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAIN SUMMITS. HIGHS TODAY WILL TREND TOWARDS THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO 30 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER
30S IN THE CPV.
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
DEEPENING, FAST-MOVING, CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. 500MB HEIGHTS
LOOK TO AMPLIFY IN TIME WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT LEADING THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/MTN
SNOW SHOWERS. INITIAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH A DRY SURFACE, BEFORE
SATURATING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SITUATION WITH THE QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM. WAA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, OUTSIDE OF MT. MARCY,
WITH SNOW LEVELS INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL. A STRONG LLJ IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS ALOFT TO
NEAR 60 MPH, WITH TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 152 AM EST TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL RAMP UP AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ SHIFTS OVER THE REGION.
MODEL SOUNDING WINDS ALOFT IN THE 925 TO 850MB LEVEL INDICATE GUSTS
UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH, WITH TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS IN SPRINGFIELD
BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 50 MPH AND BOTTOM NEAR 40MPH.
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 30 MPH UPSTREAM ON THE HREF ARE NEAR 90%
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SO THIS LEADS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE REALIZATION OF THESE HIGHER WINDS MIXING DOWN. WINDS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY FROM LUDLOW TO STOWE AND TICONDEROGA TO
PLATTSBURGH IN THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN GREENS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND THREAT, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
LOWERED AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT WILL FOLLOW. EXPECT QPF AROUND 0.15 TO 0.4 INCHES, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT COULD HAVE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO UNDERNEATH THE LOW, IN THE
SOUTHERN CPV. SURFACE INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY THE SYSTEM VORT MAX, IN
ADDITION FROM OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT ON THE WESTERN GREENS, COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME SURFACE CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG.
FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM ICE CRYSTALS IN THE MID-LEVELS COULD
PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CHANCES FOR ELECTRIFICATION. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PASSES, THERMAL PROFILES WILL TANK WITH STRONG CAA IN
THE ADKS AND WESTERN GREENS. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD LOWER 1500FT AGL BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLUSHY DUSTING TO A
INCH AROUND 1500FT, 1 TO 4 INCHES FROM 2000 TO 3000 FT, AND 4 TO 6
AT SUMMIT LEVEL AT MT. MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK. IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
MINIMAL WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FAIRLY LOCALIZED TO THE IMMEDIATE
HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE
FREEZING. THE SYSTEM RACES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AREAWIDE BUT COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 30S
WITH STRONG CAA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 152 AM EST TUESDAY...WHILE NO ANOMALOUS WEATHER SIGNALS ARE
SHOWING UP IN OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH TWO MORE SYSTEMS BRINGING IN SHARP COLD FRONTS OVER THE
WEEKEND, MOST LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
OF THESE IS POISED TO USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS 925
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR PER LREF-MEAN AND EAGLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE ACTION BEFORE THE NEXT
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR. IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH THE
TYPICAL NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CHANNELING ENHANCING WINDS
LOCALLY, LIKELY INTO THE 30-35 MPH RANGE FOR GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING,
DEPENDENT ON ONSET OF RAIN SHOWERS. SAID PRECIPITATION TIMING AS IT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST IS UNCERTAIN. A COUPLE OF MODEL CAMPS
SUGGEST THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY IT WILL BE LARGELY DRY WITH ONLY A LOW
(UNDER 40%) CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND OTHER
CAMPS SUGGESTING RAIN IS NEARLY CERTAIN IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
LIKELY IN VERMONT (ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN AREAS). AGREEMENT ON RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT IS RATHER HIGH, HENCE HIGH POPS APPROACHING 100% ARE IN
THE FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET TO SUPPORT MORE TERRAIN SHADOWING FOR PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO IS POISED TO BE MAINLY RAIN, EVEN AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WITH LIMITED AT BEST UPSLOPE/BACKSIDE PRECIPITATION AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN SATURDAY MORNING. SO WHILE 925 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIP BELOW FREEZING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE DWINDLING. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT WOULD EXPECT EITHER POPS TREND LOWER OR
TEMPERATURES HIGHER DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE MORE
INTERESTING ONE FOR SNOW LOVERS AS A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNUSUALLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TURNING COLD WITH A DEEP TROUGH
BUILDING ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIMEFRAME THERE CERTAINLY MAY BE SMALL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALL LREF MODEL CLUSTERS SUPPORT AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, WITH MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION, THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. MEAN 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES OF
ABOUT -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AND 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES NEAR -4
DEGREES CELSIUS SUGGESTS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH CONDITIONS FOR WET
SNOW DOWN TO THE LOWER VALLEYS, SO THE CURRENT WEATHER TYPE FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH MAINLY SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW AT
OUR LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A STRONGLY TERRAIN-DRIVEN SKY COVER AND
CEILINGS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE AS CLOUDS CLING NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK. SCATTERING
AND/OR SLIGHT INCREASES IN CLOUD BASE HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE
END OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SLK PERHAPS BY 13Z, AT MPV BY 15Z,
AND AT EFK BY 16Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND SHIFT SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z. WIND GUSTS OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE EXCEEDED 30 KNOTS AT MPV, WHILE BEING
UNDER 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE; THROUGH THE NEXT SIX HOURS EXPECT MOST
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 29 KNOT RANGE, AND OTHER SITES WILL INCREASE
INTO THIS RANGE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LESS FAVORABLE MIXING
SETUP AND DECREASING WINDS ALOFT AT MSS AND SLK THAN FARTHER
EAST, SO HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS THERE. FOLLOWING SUNSET
AND SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING, ENOUGH WIND OFF THE DECK WILL
RESULT IN LLWS, ESPECIALLY AT PBG, EFK, AND MPV, FROM ABOUT 00Z
TO 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. DEFINITE SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY, ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE BROAD WATERS OF
THE LAKE. WAVES MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANZIG
NEAR TERM...DANZIG
SHORT TERM...DANZIG
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
MARINE...WFO BTV
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