065
FXUS61 KBTV 290608
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 104 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO VERMONT OUTSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER FORECAST WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 104 AM EST THURSDAY...
1. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2. COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
3. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COASTAL STORM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 104 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS TROUGH AND BRING A
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THESE WILL GENERALLY BE
MOISTURE STARVED AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE MOST
CONSISTENT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AND WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE, A LOW SATURATED DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS, THOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE UNDER AN INCH DESPITE A
RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS. FLOW IS QUITE BLOCKED SO
SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON FRIDAY BUT THEY LOOK LESS WIDESPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ENTERS TODAY AND DROPS
TEMPERATURES FURTHER FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES, KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED IN PLACES AND SOME WIND AROUND. THESE WINDS,
COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, LOOK TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO
THE -15 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST PLACES. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ON HOW LOW THEY GO. THIS COULD END UP BEING A
CASE WHERE EITHER THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW THEIR CURRENT LOWS BUT WITHOUT WIND, OR WINDS STAY UP BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND OR WARMER THEN FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
STILL SPLIT ON THE AMOUNT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AND HOW
MANY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND, BUT OVERALL, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
A FEW POCKETS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE WITH
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS DUE TO WIND CHILLS BEING NEAR -30 BUT THEIR
GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM TRACKS ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST, BUT FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE IMPACTS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
OR VERMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S,
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES CURRENTLY
WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT EFK/BTV AND IFR AT SLK DUE TO LIGHT
NOW. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT, LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT TIME AND LOCATION FOR IMPACTS SINCE THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SOMEWHAT INTERMITTENT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS VFR
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE SARANAC LAKE AIRPORT WEATHER SENSOR WILL HAVE ITS
TEMPERATURE ASPIRATOR CHANGED TODAY, 1/29/2026. THE TEMPERATURE
SENSOR HAS BEEN REPORTING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN TOO WARM
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>021.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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