071
FXUS61 KBTV 211351
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
951 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022
SYNOPSIS
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS
A HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES GOING INTO
THIS EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND BRINGS US BACK TO COOLER
CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
STRONG WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 951 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO CLOUD COVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SATELLITE AND TRENDS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDE CLEARING ACROSS VERMONT AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NY. STILL ANALYZING INCOMING
MODEL DATA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TODAY WITH SEVERAL
DIFFERENT CAMPS OUT THERE, THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
BREAKING THE CAP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE MODELS SEEMINGLY
JUMPING ON BOARD. STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHEN/WHERE
CONVECTION WILL POP, BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE
RAPIDLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LINE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXTENDS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH, FROM CHICAGO
ANGLING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC. WHILE THIS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST TODAY, CLOUD COVER
FROM THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS MAKES A CHALLENGING HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION (925 MB TEMPS
RISING TO 20-24 DEG C) AND POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION (PW
VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA) WILL MAKE FOR A HOT AND MUGGY DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NY,
AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD
BASED ON DEGREE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THESE HIGHS MAY
NOT QUITE BE REACHED IF CLOUDS FROM THE CANADIAN STORMS LINGER
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL BE WATCHING SATELLITE TRENDS
CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES IF NECESSARY.
EITHER WAY, IT'S GOING TO BE A HOT DAY, AND HAVE CONTINUED HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEYS TODAY THAT AREA IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM.
THE OTHER FOCUS FOR TODAY ASIDE FROM THE HEAT IS THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY PRIMED FOR CONVECTION TODAY, AT
LEAST FOR NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS, THANKS TO PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER THAT HAS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN US INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. ANOMALOUSLY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700 MB LAYER AT THE BASE OF THE EML
SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TODAY
THAT WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. ABOVE THE
CAP HOWEVER, NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 600 AND 700
MB WITHIN THE EML WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1500-2500
J/KG CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMB. THINKING DESPITE SOME EROSION OF THE CAP AS SURFACE TEMPS
TREND TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S, ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL
REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER TYPICAL
TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SPINE OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE THAT AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS WE LACK ANY LARGE-
SCALE FORCING. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO-ANALYSIS
TODAY HOWEVER. ANY AREAS WHERE THE CAP ERODES COULD SEE STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG TERRAIN OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. THESE
POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND COULD QUICKLY
TURN SEVERE, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.
LOOKING A LITTLE LATER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME,
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY ALONG LOCAL
LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM UPSTREAM WILL
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND UP TO 1" HAIL. AS WE MOVE
CLOSER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NY INCREASE AS NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN NY COUNTIES TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THIS REMNANT
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE GOING INTO TONIGHT, BUT STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY NOCTURNAL
STORMS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION, AND MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THIS FEATURE BY A COUPLE HOURS. WILL HAVE VERY
MOIST AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES FORM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
TEMPERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE IT WILL BE CLOUDIER EARLIER
WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING, MAINLY HIGH 70S TO LOWER 80S THERE.
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
18Z-00Z. CAPE WILL CREEP UP TO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE, BUT STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. OUR
REGION ALSO REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
FRONT, WITH THE THREAT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY 00Z CONVECTION WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION, THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIE
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH QUIETER WEATHER AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50, FOLLOWED
BY HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH
WILL FEEL COOL FOLLOWING THREE DAYS IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1021 PM EDT FRIDAY...A CHILLY, RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS. VERY
COMFORTABLE AIR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH. MODEST LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND SOLAR HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THEN WE WILL TREND WETTER AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SENDS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE FOR MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY WE MAY SEE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MISS TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST, BUT THEN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL SHOULD IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE LARGELY SIMILAR TO ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDIER SKIES BUT
STILL COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. ON THURSDAY, AMPLE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES DESPITE WARMER AIR ALOFT, CAUSING THE RANGE OF PROBABLE
TEMPERATURES TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL. THAT WARMING ALOFT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD PRODUCE
CHANNELED SOUTH FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS BUMPED UP LAKE CHAMPLAIN WINDS A BIT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS AMID THE RAIN
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE SOME
CLEARING AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IF TIMING OF SAID FRONT
ALIGNS WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING, CHANCES OF ORGANIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERTOP
OF A REGION OF INSTABILITY. CURRENTLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
BEARS WATCHING AT THIS RANGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WE WILL BE IN A MOIST
AIR MASS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GEFS MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES VALUES SHOULD EASILY
EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
AS AN ATLANTIC FETCH OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SUBTROPICAL FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 14Z.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 22Z, BUT GIVEN SPARSE COVERAGE HAVE JUST
INCLUDED VCSH AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP TODAY COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER, AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES
(10 TO 30 MINUTES DURATION). ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
MATERIALIZE WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 06Z.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TODAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z OUTSIDE OF ANY
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE DAY, BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. WAVES 2 TO 4
FEET THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAY 21 AND SUNDAY, MAY 22
AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HERE ARE THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURES.
DATE KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK
05-21 92|1911 89|2021 89|2021 89|1975 92|1975 94|1911
05-22 93|1977 90|1994 84|9999 89|1977 92|1977 91|1911
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ005-009-011-
021.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.
SYNOPSIS...DUELL
NEAR TERM...DUELL/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...DUELL
MARINE...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...WFO BTV
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