685
FXUS61 KBTV 181204
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
704 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 703 AM EST WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO PLACE PATCHY FOG
INTO THE FORECAST, AS OGS IS AT 1/2SM AND MIDDLEBURY IS 1/4SM,
ALSO DROVE THRU SEVERAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHILE COMING TO WORK
THIS MORNING ON INTERSTATE 89. PLEASE DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 136 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
1. MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING.
2. INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
THAT WILL IMPACT THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE WITH A 60-70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EAST
INTO VERMONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 136 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER SEASONABLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED
ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WITH MORE SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS
WILL BE DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE, WITH SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SNOW, BUT LUCKILY THE TREND
OF DECREASING SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIMIT ANY IMPACTS. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST MENTIONED, CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH, WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AT ALL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS. A RATHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FORECAST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES
BLOCKED LOW PRESSURE STILL GOING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH, AND EVENTUALLY TAKING
OVER. AS IT MATURES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY TRY
TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL SEND A MODEST WARM FRONT
WITH EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCED DEFORMATION AS A RESULT
OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ONCE THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING DEPARTS, THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY. A COASTAL
LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY BETTER FORCING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE WARM FRONT TO STALL OUT, AND EVEN AS THE
DECAYING SURFACE LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED, IT SHOULD STILL SUPPLY ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOW INTO
SATURDAY.
SO THIS EVENT WILL FEATURE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, AND THEN IT WILL TREND
TOWARDS A STEADY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT THE BOUNDARY AWAY FROM US. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT GETS, WE MAY SEE A WARM NOSE NUDGE INTO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND A MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE MARGINAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH MAY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIGHTER SNOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS WILL BE WHERE EASTERLY
FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE AND LOCKS IN COLDER AIR FOR EASTERN VERMONT
AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. PROBABILITIES OF 8" BETWEEN
BOTH DAYS ARE ABOUT 20-40%. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT TO
THE INTRICACIES OF THIS SYSTEM. SO STAY TUNED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE BEYOND SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH WITH ANOTHER STRONG COASTAL POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE 40 N 70
W BENCHMARK, SOME DRY AIR MAY FILTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LINGERING MVFR STRATUS AND INTERMITTENT FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH, BUT HAS BEEN A
LITTLE SLOWER TO SHIFT SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. CLEARING IS BEING
OBSERVED BEHIND IT, AND THERE HAS BEEN PATCHY FOG WITHIN THE
CLEARING. WITH THE SUN RISING, STEADY IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED, AND
BY 14Z, SITES WILL BECOME ALL VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 5-10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 14Z, WHICH WILL DECREASE AFTER 22-23Z. MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND SNOW
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR. DEFINITE SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE KMPV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE,
BUT AMENDMENTS TO THOSE FORECASTS WILL BE SUSPENDED.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TABER
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/KREMER
AVIATION...HAYNES EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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