619
FXUS61 KBTV 061836
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
236 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 236 PM EDT MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 236 PM EDT MONDAY...
1. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
2. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID-WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY.
3. SEESAWING WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 236 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TODAY THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY
ONGOING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FEW J/KG OF CAPE COINCIDING
WITH A SATURATED DGZ WHICH HAS HELPED MAXIMIZE SNOWFALL PROCESSES.
WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE, WE HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION BUT A DUSTING HERE OR THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EVEN AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WHENEVER A
SNOW SHOWER PASSES OVER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING HOWEVER, WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERALL ACCUMULATION TO LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW WHICH IS A BIT UNUSUAL FOR THE FIRST
FULL WEEK OF APRIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
CLEARING SKIES AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE
ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO WARMING TEMPERATURES, MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH
VALUES TO DROP BELOW 30%. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER, AS WE
REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES TO THE EAST AND
GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A RESULT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
ADVECT INTO NORTH NEW YORK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BUT THIS MOISTURE
WON'T MOVE INTO VERMONT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW 30% FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF VERMONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS IN HE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS THESE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANY FIRES THAT START TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT
EAST, BUT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND A STUBBORN HIGH IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. ULTIMATELY, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WASH OUT ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER, HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASING
FRIDAY EVENING, AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SOUTHEAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHEAST UP THROUGH
QUEBEC CITY. MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THINNING AS
IT CROSSES OVERNIGHT, AND SO WIDESPREAD, BUT FAIRLY LIGHT RAIN SEEMS
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
SATURDAY WILL BE BRIEFLY COOLER, THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, AS A STRONG 1030-1033MB HIGH SLOWLY NOSES IN WITH
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING,
AND THEN MOVING OFFSHORE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO WE WILL QUICKLY
RETURN TO 60S.
ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL SHUFFLE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONE SEEMS RICHER IN MOISTURE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. THE
LATEST NBM DATA HAS TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS MAY BE GENEROUS, ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ONGOING MIDDAY NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR, WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 7-16 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS. RADAR DEPICTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS, BUT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS
RESULTING IN LIMITED IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY AND CEILING AT GROUND
LEVEL, EXCEPT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. MANY TAFS HAVE VCSH AND TEMPOS
FOR 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. ABOUT 21Z-03Z, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
FOCUS ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, BUT THERE'S UNCERTAINTY AND LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL ON WHERE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED. THIS
MAINLY WILL IMPACT KMSS AND KSLK. MOST GUIDANCE PLACES ACTIVITY
FARTHER SOUTH, AND SO ONLY KSLK HAS BEEN SHOWN WITH IFR VISIBILITY
IN A TEMPO FROM 21Z-01Z TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECAY MOVING INTO
VERMONT, AND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, SOME SCATTERING OF
CLOUDS AND LIFTING CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. ABOUT 09Z-12Z, A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE ADIRONDACKS, WHICH WILL BRING
CEILINGS BACK DOWN AND WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/CLAY
AVIATION...HAYNES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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