847
FXUS61 KBTV 151138
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 243 AM EST SUNDAY...
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW HAVE INCREASED MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH ONLY MINOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 243 AM EST SUNDAY...
1. A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING BRIEFLY COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR TODAY.
2. VERY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE OVERALL TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
3. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 243 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IS USHERING IN COLDER AIR AND A
FEW PRE-DAWN SNOW FLURRIES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM
INDICATES THAT SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AFTER SEEING VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ON
SATURDAY (AND ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 22 DAYS AT
BTV), LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. OVERALL EXPECTING TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND THE
NORTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE TO 5 MPH OR LESS BY LATE
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT STRATIFORM SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION DURING THE
06-12Z PERIOD EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM3 SOLUTION IS MORE
BULLISH ON QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE HRRR. HAVE
STAYED CLOSER TO THE HRRR BASED ON CONTINUITY, WITH THE IDEA OF
A QUICK DUSTING TO 1" POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN ON MONDAY. TRAVEL
IMPACTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINOR, AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD EXIT EWD INTO NH BY 13Z.
SIMILARLY, ANOTHER NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
INCLUDED ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, WITH A COATING TO 2"
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. AGAIN, WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINOR. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ANY SNOW COVERED ROADS
SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TOWARD MID-LATE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE, WITH POSSIBLE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK DEVELOPING
ACROSS QUEBEC INTO JAMES/HUDSON BAY FOR THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AS A RESULT, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER A SYSTEM
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY CAN SPREAD PRECIPITATION NEWD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY REFLECTS THE 00Z ECMWF, WITH WAA
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOVING
FROM SW-NE INTO MUCH OF THE REGION VERY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (60-70% POPS). THIS COULD YIELD
WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS, THOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 00Z GFS AND
A FEW OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH WITH
STRONGER BLOCKING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S FOR WED/THU, THOUGH STRONGER BLOCKING WOULD LIKELY YIELD
COLDER TEMPERATURES, WHICH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
WED/THU TIME FRAME.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT 700-500MB TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH A FRONTAL WAVE IN THE OHIO VALLEY POSSIBLY
MOVING NEWD INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GEFS MEMBERS, POPS ARE IN THE 40-50%
RANGE FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE, BUT WILL AWAIT BETTER PREDICTABILITY WITH LATER MODEL
RUNS TO OUTLINE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LINGERING BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KRUT
ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY 14Z. LOOKING FOR SKC-SCT200-250 THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SPREAD SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
INTO OUR REGION AFTER 06Z MONDAY. HAVE INDICATED 5SM -SN AFTER
08Z AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES, EXCEPT 3SM -SN AT KSLK. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WILL SHIFT LIGHT SOUTH
AROUND 5KTS FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO
SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN,
CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, CHANCE
SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
CLIMATE
AS OF 1228 AM EST SUNDAY...IN BURLINGTON, THE LAST DAY WITH A
TEMPERATURE BREAKING 32 DEGREES WAS JANUARY 22ND. SATURDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 35 DEGREES. THEREFORE THE STREAK HAS ENDED
AT 22 DAYS IN A ROW. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURE STREAKS THIS LONG
ARE FAIRLY UNUSUAL IN THE BURLINGTON AREA, LAST HAPPENING JANUARY-
FEBRUARY 2015.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANACOS
DISCUSSION...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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