631  
FXUS61 KBTV 282032  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A CLASH OF AIR MASSES WILL BRING A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND  
RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY, TRENDING TOWARDS RAIN AND  
FREEZING RAIN ON SUNDAY. A DRAMATIC WARM UP WITH SOME SHARP  
RIVER RISES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY  
COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 432 PM EDT FRIDAY...VERY CHALLENGING WINTER FORECAST  
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO EVENTS TO FOCUS  
ON, ONE OF WHICH IS A ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW MORNING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. A WINTER  
STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE  
OF SEEING 7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE EVENT. SNOWFALL  
AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 9 INCHES IN A ROUGHLY 50 TO 100 MILE  
WIDE SWATH STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL  
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING,  
WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING  
ALONG A STRONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE  
LATERALLY TRANSLATING BAND IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE  
3 AM TO 8 AM TIMEFRAME. IT SHOULD LIE JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALOFT GO ABOVE FREEZING, A LINE THAT WILL  
WAFFLE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALLS.  
 
MEANWHILE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, A LONG DURATION WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR  
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.  
GIVEN MANY MITIGATING FACTORS TO GETTING HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS,  
HAVE NOT UPGRADED ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THIS AREA TO A  
WARNING, BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FREEZING RAIN RATHER THAN  
MIXING WITH SLEET OR CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN. AREAS IN SOUTHERN  
VERMONT ARE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN  
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT LARGELY THINK MID-SLOPE  
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ARE QUITE SUSCEPTIBLE TO  
STAYING BELOW FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION FALLS WITH A WARM NOSE  
ALOFT. ANYWHERE IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE  
BELOW FREEZING, AND ESPECIALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING, WILL  
NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGH TONIGHT, AS ICE IMPACTS COULD  
BE SERIOUS IF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEED 0.5" OF FLAT ICE.  
 
WITH SUCH A STRONG WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS, SOME ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY IN THE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  
FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD WITH MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD  
BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN, WHICH WILL COULD ALSO LEAD TO  
SIGNIFICANT ICING DURING THIS PERIOD; SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL  
STRUGGLE TO WARM ASIDE FROM THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS (NORTHWEST ASPECT)  
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SHALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN  
STUBBORN. STORM TOTAL FLAT ICE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS CURRENTLY  
FORECAST IN THE 0.25" TO 0.5" RANGE IN MUCH OF THIS AREA IN THE  
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN  
GREENS (EASTERN ADDISON AND RUTLAND, ORANGE, AND WINDSOR  
COUNTIES).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 432 PM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE AN UNPLEASANT  
WEATHER DAY WITH EITHER A COLD RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AREAWIDE.  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON INCREASINGLY STRONG  
WESTERLY WINDS, SUCH THAT MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WILL BECOME WELL  
ABOVE FREEZING AND WARMER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE REGION.  
EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL REALLY KEEP  
TEMPERATURES COLD, BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND BREAKS IN  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REDUCE IMPACTS IN ANY ADDITIONAL  
ACCUMULATION OF ICE AS TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EVEN IN THE  
COLDEST SPOTS IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN VERMONT.  
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK RELATIVELY  
LIGHT COMPARED TO THE EARLIER PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THESE  
AREAS MOST LIKELY SEEING 0.1-0.2" OF FLAT ICE. HOWEVER, AS WINDS  
PICK UP, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH, THERE COULD BE  
SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO UTILITIES.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SUCH THAT THE  
FREEZING RAIN THREAT, WHILE NON-ZERO, WILL DECREASE FURTHER. BY  
DAYBREAK, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SHARPLY INTO THE MID 40S TO  
MID 50S, WITH MUCH MORE HUMID AIR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS FINALLY  
BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE SPINE OF  
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND POINTS WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS A BIT OF A DRY SLOT MAY  
MOVE INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...THEREAFTER, A RELATIVELY QUIET,  
THOUGH CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN  
DIFFICULTY LIES IN THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE POLAR FRONT,  
WHICH WILL BE WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH NEAR OUR AREA THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. TIMING CHALLENGES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES IN ADDITION TO  
CAPTURING THE OFTEN DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE  
CP AIRMASS WILL BOTH COME INTO PLAY DURING THE PERIOD. AT THIS  
POINT, THE BEST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY  
NIGHT, AFTER WHICH PREDICTABILITY DECREASES STEADILY. FOR NOW,  
I'VE LEANED CLOSEST TO THE NATIONAL BLENDED/WPC GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTING MAINLY 40S FOR HIGHS MON-FRI WITH ONE MILDER DAY INTO  
THE 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER, POST-FRONTAL COOLING ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY  
AGAIN BY WEEK'S END COULD CERTAINLY BE GREATER THAN WHAT IS  
INDICATED, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. IN TERMS OF  
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN RETURNED CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW  
SHOWER ACTIVITY LONG ABOUT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER  
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z UNDER LIGHT WEST  
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 6-10 KTS AS CIGS TREND BKN IN THE  
060-120 AGL RANGE OVER TIME. AFTER 00Z WIDESPREAD SNOW AND MIXED  
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL WAX AND WANE,  
THOUGH BE LARGELY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE END OF THE 24-HOUR  
FORECAST PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY A GIVEN DURING THIS  
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MOST  
TERMINALS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KSLK WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO  
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS SHOWN AFTER 05Z, AND FOR KRUT WHERE  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL LARGELY AS LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING  
WITH SLEET AT TIMES. WINDS TO GENERALLY TREND LIGHT  
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5 KTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PERHAPS  
A TAD STRONGER AT KMSS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
FZRA, LIKELY RA, CHANCE PL.  
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,  
DEFINITE FZRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.  
MONDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST  
LOCAL RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE MODEST, TO IN SOME CASES FAIRLY  
SHARP RISES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL, CURRENT CREST FORECASTS  
INDICATE RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE IN REACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR  
FLOOD STAGE ARE TYPICAL CULPRITS INCLUDING THE AUSABLE, OTTER  
CREEK AND MAD. AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES OF REACHING HIGHER  
FLOOD STAGES REMAINS QUITE LOW, SO FROM AN OVERALL PERSPECTIVE  
WIDESPREAD, HIGHLY IMPACTFUL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,  
THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN TYPICAL NUISANCE LOWLAND FLOODING AREAS  
ON THESE AND OTHER RIVERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT SHOULD MONITOR CURRENT AND FUTURE  
FORECASTS RELATED TO THIS EVENT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY  
RECORDS, AS INDICATED BELOW.  
 
DATE KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK  
03-29 0.82|1888 0.71|1954 0.67|2020 0.84|2020 0.71|2020 0.62|1932  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT  
SUNDAY FOR VTZ001-002-004-005-009>011-016-018>021.  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY  
FOR VTZ003-006>008-017.  
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT  
SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>030-034-035-087.  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY  
FOR NYZ031.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF  
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF  
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF  
LONG TERM...JMG  
AVIATION...JMG  
HYDROLOGY...JMG  
CLIMATE...WFO BTV  
 
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