613
FXUS61 KBTV 291803
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
203 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. SATURDAY
WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 908 AM EDT THURSDAY...RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW YORK WITH LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SLIGHT UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA AND CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ITS TREK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY, A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
TOWARDS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH, HOWEVER THE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATER EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS THIS MCS MOVES ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN TIED TO THIS FEATURE
AND THUS SOUTH OF OUR AREA, IN TURN BRINING WITH IT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE REGION AFTER 18Z, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA BY 00Z. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER STILL REMAINS FAIRLY
LOW GIVEN NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING PROFILES, HOWEVER HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND CENTRAL VERMONT AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA (WHICH STILL
REMAIN IN MODERATE DROUGHT). QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.25-0.75", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE FRONT
CROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS AS NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WHILE STILL JULY, THIS FRONT
WILL BRING A SMALL TASTE OF FALL WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 20 MPH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 507 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY
SHOWERS OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 507 AM EDT THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON MONDAY AND FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
THE WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TAKING
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH LOWERING
CIGS. BY 21Z, A TREND TOWARDS MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4 MILES POSSIBLE.
TOWARDS 06Z, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE
AT KSLK AND KMPV. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KT
TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TOWARDS 08Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN OUT
OF THE W/NW FOR NORTHERN NY TERMINALS, INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAROCCA
NEAR TERM...HAMMOND/LAROCCA
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HAMMOND/LAROCCA
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