014
FXUS61 KBTV 141123
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 127 AM EST SATURDAY...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE RUNNING FORECAST. A HANDFUL OF
EDITS WERE MADE TO THE SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND THE TIMING
OF WHEN ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH A DESCENDING COLD FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 127 AM EST SATURDAY...
1. A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
2. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW, BUT WARMING CONDITIONS FOLLOWING WILL LIKELY MINIMIZE
TRAVEL IMPACTS.
3. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 127 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NORTHERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE. AHEAD OF IT, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON WESTERN SLOPES.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AFTER SUNSET,
BUT IT WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS IT DIVES SOUTH BETWEEN ABOUT 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT, BUT LITTLE IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. THIS UPPER LOW IS VERY COMPACT
WITH THE SMALL PACKAGE DELIVERING QUITE A PUNCH, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE COLD WILL QUICKLY MODERATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BRIDGES THE REGION. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
NORTH WHERE RESIDUAL NORTH FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME RESIDUAL COOL AIR
WITH NEAR FREEZING TO MID 30S EXPECTED SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARDS. A
VERY WEAK 1015MB SURFACE LOW IS GOING TO SPIN NEAR LAKE ONTARIO, BUT
MOST MOISTURE AND FORCING IS GOING TO BE TAKEN BY A COASTAL LOW THAT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
MANAGE TO TRACK INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL HIT DRY AIR FROM ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. IT MAY VERY WELL FAIL TO EVEN MAKE IT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. SO JUST A DUSTING, PERHAPS AN INCH IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, APPEARS MOST LIKELY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND SHALLOW WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK, WHILE THE CHAMPLAIN AND UPPER VALLEY REACH THE LOWER 40S.
IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY PRECIPITATION STILL AROUND, A TRANSITION
TO RAIN MAY OCCUR. THIS WARM INTRUSION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY,
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POISED TO SAG SOUTH, BUT NOT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SET UP CLOSE TO THE REGION FOR
MID AND LATE WEEK, CAUSING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. A
CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THAT BUT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT AND ISOLATED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THAT FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT THAT
THIS COLD AIR IS ABLE TO BLEED DOWN IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BOUNDARY
MAY GET HUNG UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE WEEK
BUT RUN DIRECTLY INTO THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. ENOUGH COLD AIR
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT THAT NORTHERN AREAS REMAIN ALL SNOW, WHILE A
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, WITH LARGE MODEL UNCERTAINTY, THERE AREAS THAT SEE THE
DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES COULD CHANGE, AND ABOVE IS JUST THE
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION RIGHT NOW. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE SYSTEM, BUT IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WEAKEN RUNNING INTO THE HIGH SO THE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE OVERLY HIGH. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MAKE A RUN
AT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, WITH THE CURRENT MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES
BEING SNOW AND OR A WINTRY MIX.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LOCAL IFR DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW. KSLK/KMSS ARE ALREADY IFR
AND WILL REMAIN SO WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT THROUGH 16-18Z.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS TO REMAIN 1500-2500 FT AT MOST TERMINALS,
WITH LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM, EXCEPT DOWN TO 2SM
AT KSLK, THROUGH 18Z. MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT THEREAFTER, WITH ALL SITES EXCEPT KSLK TO BE VFR BY 02Z SUN.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY, TRENDING TO W/SW THIS MORNING,
THEN BECOMING W/NW 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO
SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN, CHANCE
RA.
CLIMATE
AS OF 204 PM EST FRIDAY...
IN BURLINGTON, THE LAST DAY WITH A TEMPERATURE BREAKING 32
DEGREES WAS JANUARY 22ND. THE NEXT TIME WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32 IN BURLINGTON IS NEXT MONDAY,
FEBRUARY 16TH. IF THAT FORECAST HOLDS, THAT WOULD BE 24 DAYS IN
A ROW BELOW FREEZING. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURE STREAKS THIS
LONG ARE FAIRLY UNUSUAL IN THE BURLINGTON AREA, LAST HAPPENING
JANUARY- FEBRUARY 2015.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/HAYNES
AVIATION...HASTINGS
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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