331
FXUS61 KBTV 310627
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
227 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT TODAY BEFORE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER TODAY, DAILY HIGHS WILL WARM TO
BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING
ABOVE AVERAGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 134 AM EDT THURSDAY...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR IMAGERY, IT IS MOSTLY FALLING AS VIRGA WITH A VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL VERMONT, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
0.1-0.33", WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY FOR MORE NORTHWARD LOCATIONS WITH CLOUD
COVER TAMPING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND/SLIGHT BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES TODAY
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 134 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN IDEAL SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WERE KEPT MORE IN LINE WITH COLDER GUIDANCE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 30S IN TYPICALLY COLDEST HOLLOWS.
OTHERWISE, LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 134 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SIT OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AREAWIDE AND THE HIGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST, SEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL RETURN, THOUGH
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS EXPECTED
IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE DRY SOILS AND SOME FIRE
ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY MID WEEK AS A TROUGH WILL SWING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES. ENSEMBLES ARE MIXED ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
TROUGH FROM MIXED SIGNALS ON A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY. THE
EPS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DELAYED
PRECIPITATION ARRIVALS DUE TO A STRONGER HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN
QUEBEC. THE GEFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE EJECTIONS ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH HELPS AMPLIFY THE FLOW AND INCREASE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME LOW SHALLOW FOG AND MIST MAY REMAIN AT RUT FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO, BUT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SURFACE FLOW, FOG
SHOULD SCOUR OUT RATHER QUICKLY. AS OVERALL AREAL FLOW TURNS TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH, INTRUSIONS OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD BRING
VISIBILITIES TOWARDS LOW VFR 6SM, HOWEVER, LOOKING AT UPSTREAM
SITES, NONE HAVE NOT GONE MVFR, SO ONLY TRENDED VISIBILITIES TO 6SM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH HZ. SMOKE FORECASTS SHOW
SOME DILUTION BEYOND SUNRISE, SO HZ SHOULD BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE
INTO THE DAYLIGHT TODAY. WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS, FOR MOST SITES OUTSIDE OF RUT WHERE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE CALMER SIDE. SOME CHANNELED FLOW MAY
OCCASIONALLY PUSH WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT BTV/PBG DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS FROM A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE BY 12Z AT RUT, WITH STEADIER RAIN BY THIS EVENING. HREF
RAINFALL RATES AND PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW, SO CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AT RUT ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...DANZIG
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