703  
FXUS61 KBTV 212341  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
641 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL US, BRINGING A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 636 PM EST FRIDAY...WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECOUPLE BUT  
LIKELY TO REEMERGE TO SOME EXTENT IN SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL  
JET MOVES INTO FA. NO CHANGES TO FCST AT THIS TIME.  
 
LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEAR  
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST OUT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RIDGE  
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT COLD TEMPERATURES LAST  
NIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND OUR  
REGION WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT  
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE A BIT OF AN  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.  
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH WARMING  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, MAINLY TEENS TO SOME LOWER 20S. 925 MB JET  
CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WE COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY  
CONDITIONS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN FRANKLIN  
AND CLINTON COUNTIES OF NY , THOUGH BEING AT NIGHTTIME THE  
MIXING WILL NOT BE IDEAL. WILL HAVE SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS,  
MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS, IN ANY AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE.  
AFTER SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA, MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT  
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING  
OVERHEAD. MORE WARMING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S, JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER  
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL HAVE SOME MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON  
SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE PUSHES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING  
THROUGH. ANY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT RESULT IN  
ACCUMULATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY  
MILD WITH CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, LOWS MAINLY  
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 353 PM EST FRIDAY...OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN  
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 40S. THIS IS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MILD WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A TROUGH PASSES TO  
THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.  
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 5-10KTS, THOUGH HIGHER WITHIN THE SAINT  
LAWRENCE VALLEY (10-12KTS) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH  
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO  
LOW 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND EASTERN VERMONT,  
WHILE REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND  
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 353 PM EST FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK STARTS OFF  
QUIET AND WARM, THOUGH ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK. MONDAY  
WILL BE ANOTHER SPRING- LIKE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
40S. HOWEVER, BECAUSE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RELATIVELY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR MONDAY COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK  
AS FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 50F ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL BE MILD (UPPER 20S) AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND THERE  
EXISTS A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL  
GUIDANCE, BUT ULTIMATELY, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM  
THE SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A  
MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE, SO THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS RAIN  
AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSISTENT MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.  
 
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM  
PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE, AMPLIFYING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS  
TIME, PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS AS RAIN/SNOW; ALTHOUGH, TRENDS IN  
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT A WARMER SOLUTION, THUS  
FAVORING RAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WITH A  
STRONG, EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND  
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE LOW DEPARTS EASTWARD, COLD AIR WILL  
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE  
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS (S IN CHAMPLAIN VLY)  
ARE DECEOUPLING A TAD BUT WILL LIKELY REEMERGE SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
AS LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF  
LLWS AFTER 03Z AS A 45+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES  
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME  
HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW MOUNTAN FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE REDUCED AT TAF SITES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN,  
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
SHSN.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.  
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
SHSN.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DUELL  
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SLW  
SHORT TERM...HAMMOND/  
LONG TERM...HAMMOND  
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW  
 
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