864
FXUS61 KBTV 250514
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLE LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO COOL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, A SHARP WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE FROM TUESDAY INTO
LATER NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH IN A FEW SPOTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1024 PM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
IN SUBCRITICAL AND BLOCKED FLOW. WE ANTICIPATE THESE CLOUDS TO
EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FALLING IN CLEAR AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND SOME MINOR
TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOWER HOURLY TEMPS. WE MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE, THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE. TOMORROW WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...I'LL OFFER PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST HEADING INTO TONIGHT/FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW TO MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PROFILES WILL THIN/ERODE SUCH THAT SKIES SHOULD TREND MAINLY
CLEAR IN ALL AREAS BY SUNSET/EARLY EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THEN MAINLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT ON FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. I HAVE
A SPOT HIGH OF 56 IN BURLINGTON. CLEAR SKIES THEN GIVE WAY TO
THICKENING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS AND THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS ANY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SLV
AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 35 TO 45 RANGE UNDER LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 304 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING COOL AND BLUSTERY,
WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED, AS A COUPLE OF UPPER SHORTWAVES/SURFACE
FRONTS ROTATE AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE
FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IN ANY ONE LOCATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT; GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING SHOWERS TO AN END AND ALLOWING
SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR. ANY SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TURN TO SNOW, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
A SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN
ON SATURDAY, SO WHILE SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A
COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY; HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, AND WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FROM THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
QUICKLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WHILE ELSEWHERE SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S, EXCEPT AROUND 30F NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 304 PM EDT THURSDAY...MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH A
WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY, MAKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY.
STILL, WITH LIGHT WINDS, IT SHOULDN'T FEEL AS COLD AS SUNDAY, THOUGH
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY,
WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RESULT WILL BE
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK; HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S, BUT EXPECT 60S AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VALLEY
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 70F. SOME RECORD HIGHS COULD
BE BROKEN. THE WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS.
THESE SHOULD EXIT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT FOR NOW THE WORST OF ANY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COULD ALSO BE BREEZY, THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST,
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A VERY QUIET TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT KSLK
AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 8000 TO 10000
FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/STORM
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CLAY
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