292
FXUS61 KBTV 180725
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY, AND REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND FROST IS EXPECTED EACH
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH A WEAK
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...ASIDE FROM COLD TEMPERATURES, THE
NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY QUIET. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, FINALLY CRESTING OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING, FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TC SALLY. THIS HAS MADE THE FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT
INTERESTING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG FORMING BRIEFLY IN DIFFERENT
SPOTS, AND EVEN SOME LOW CEILINGS FOR A SHORT TIME. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS INTO OUR AREA TODAY, WE'LL SEE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY AS WE
AREA STILL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH
CROSSED THE REGION YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE
THROUGH THE 50S TO AROUND 60. EXPECT A NORTHERLY BREEZE (10-20
MPH) DURING THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
CHANNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (GUSTS 15-25 MPH IN THESE
AREAS). WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHICH WILL SEE LOWS UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SHELTERED AREAS TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING SOME FROST.
FROST HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE AREA, THOUGH HAVE HELD OFF AT THIS POINT SINCE WE ALREADY
HAVE A FROST HEADLINE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR THE
CURRENT TIMEFRAME. SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDES CLOSER TO OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 304 AM EDT FRIDAY...A 1034-1036 MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH ALL LOCATIONS
DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -3 TO -4 DEGREES C, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE FROST ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARK SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE JUST HOW COLD OUR COLDER
HOLLOWS GET WITH SIGN THAT SARANAC LAKE MAY ACTUALLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS. NEVERTHELESS, THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY LOOKS TO BE COMING TO AN END WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED IN
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
SLIGHTLY MORE MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
STILL 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 4 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 304 AM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY WILD CARD FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TRACK OF HURRICANE TEDDY
AND WHETHER OR NOT IT PUSHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES (MINUS THE ECMWF) KEEPS THE
SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA. ITS HARD TO IMAGINE THIS SYSTEM FINDING A
WAY TO CURVE FAR ENOUGH WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVERHEAD IS QUITE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOOKING AT THE LATEST NAEFS
GUIDANCE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WON'T COME UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN YET
ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE
COMMON THEME OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO, THE BEST DYNAMICS AND
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER (NEAR
JAMES BAY) WHICH WILL PUT US ON THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION.
IN THE MEAN TIME, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY PRIOR TO THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AT RUT. CEILINGS WILL BE
IMPROVING TOWARDS SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
FROM 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME NORTHERLY 7-12 KTS AFTER
12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. AREAS FROST.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...CLAY
LONG TERM...CLAY
AVIATION...NEILES
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