376  
FXUS61 KBTV 050243  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON  
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS  
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND VALLEY HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO  
MID 50S. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES  
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1043 PM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND  
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY NOTICEABLE TWEAK WAS TO  
ADJUST SKY TRENDS AS CLEARING TAKING PLACE A BIT QUICKER ACROSS  
PARTS OF VERMONT. THIS HAS LED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS WELL. REST OF FORECAST  
REMAINS UNCHANGED.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BE IN  
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.  
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE QUITE WEAK IN FLAT P-GRADIENT,  
WITH LIGHT N-NW GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE. GOES-16 VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW PARTIAL  
CLEARING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH DRIER AIR MASS  
TRYING TO WORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THAT SAID,  
STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH  
OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT AT 19Z. WITH ONLY WEAK ADVECTION,  
ANTICIPATE VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT LINGERING  
MOISTURE IN 2-5KFT LAYER. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND 2-M DEWPOINTS  
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S WILL LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT.  
LOOKING FOR LOWS MAINLY 35-40F, WITH A FEW SPOTS 33-35F ACROSS  
THE ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. IN SPOTS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT FOR  
A FEW HOURS TONIGHT, MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO, MAY  
SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN, BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
FOR SUNDAY, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR 850-700MB TROUGH AND DECAYING  
FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LOWER  
MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE GENERALLY  
BEEN DWINDLING THROUGH THE DAY, AND OVERALL FORCING WILL NOT BE  
IMPRESSIVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONTINUED WITH THE  
IDEA FOR DEVELOPING OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY  
POPS 30-50% FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING TOWARD MID-DAY IN  
NY, AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VT. OVERALL RAINFALL  
EXPECTED <0.10" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND LESS THAN 0.05"  
AT MOST OF THE ASOS LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS TURN LIGHT S-SW  
SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS  
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS, AND 49-52F ACROSS NRN NY  
WHERE THICKER/LOWER OVERCAST ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHOULD  
SEE POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 5-10MPH DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING WITH  
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS  
CONSENSUS ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRE- DAWN  
LOWS NEAR FREEZING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 244 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO QUICKLY  
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AT BOTH THE LOW  
LEVELS AND MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO  
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST  
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW  
FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S UNDER  
CALM WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR  
REPEAT OF MONDAY EXCEPT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN  
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 244 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO A WETTER AND  
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR MID LEVEL  
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED  
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON  
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL  
BEFORE IT EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL  
BE SEVERELY LACKING AS NO PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR AN  
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER, A MORE  
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IS POTENTIALLY IN THE WORKS FOR THURSDAY AS A  
STRONG COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A DEVELOPING LOW NORTH OF THE  
GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WE SHOULD BE WELL WITHIN  
THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW WARM DO WE GET  
ON THURSDAY AND CAN WE MANAGE ANY INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE  
GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING ABOUT 50-100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER  
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT THERE AREN'T  
ANY SIGNS THAT STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PLAUSIBLE  
DURING THIS TIME.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ELEVATIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF  
THE FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOLER  
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ACTING TO ENHANCE LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD  
LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS WILL  
MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAIN BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE  
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES  
HOVERING BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT CEILINGS IN THE 2000  
TO 4000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE  
TO THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE  
TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL BE  
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON  
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE  
REGION ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL  
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN  
IN THE VFR CATEGORY, BUT COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT  
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/BANACOS  
SHORT TERM...CLAY  
LONG TERM...CLAY  
AVIATION...EVENSON  
 
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