404  
FXUS61 KBTV 131912  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
312 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER  
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER  
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL  
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE MUCH OF  
THE AREA WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE  
DRIER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND THURSDAY WILL SEE WINDS  
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY.  
THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME ITS LOOKS LIKE  
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 312 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW  
PULSE STORMS BEING THE RULE TODAY AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE HAD A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR  
NORTHERN VERMONT. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA  
HAVE HELPED TO SET UP AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS ESSEX  
COUNTY, NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG  
RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, BUT AS UPPER TROUGH  
APPROACHES LAKE ONTARIO WE WILL SEE INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT  
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE  
IDEA OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED PULSE STORMS FORMING  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE  
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS THIS WILL BE THE  
MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE  
HAVE BEEN SOME KNOWN WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH  
SOME OF THE CONVECTION TODAY.  
 
EVENTUALLY WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT  
DIMINISHES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF  
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES,  
HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. CAN SEE FAIRLY  
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY LOSE OUT A BIT WILL BE OVER THE  
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AS THEY WILL BE A BIT NORTH  
AND WEST OF THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST  
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 312 PM EDT MONDAY...WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A  
GREAT DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH RIDGING  
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER, AS THE  
RIDGING IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG AS IT WAS LOOKING IN THE  
PREVIOUS DAYS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOME WEAK  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PROVIDE  
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTORM, MAINLY OVER  
HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE RIDGING WILL WIN  
OUT AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR  
SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW  
80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 312 PM EDT MONDAY...ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT  
TO OUR EAST AND DEEP SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP  
OVER THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW  
80S, DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO  
GULF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RESULTANT SHOWERS SWEEPING THROUGH.  
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE  
SYSTEM, AND EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST, SO  
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS WE BEGIN TO NARROW DOWN TIMING  
OF THE SYSTEM. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH. NOTING HIGH PW VALUES AND DEEP WARM  
CLOUD LAYER, SO SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT  
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD A GOOD CLIP SO NO FLOODING  
ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL  
QUITE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE SOUTHERLY  
FLOW WILL BE CHANNELED.  
 
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY, AND COULD STILL SEE SOME  
LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ANY AREAS  
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WILL HAVE THE MOST  
DESTABILIZATION, AND COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL TSTORMS DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES THROUGH.  
 
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY DRIER AND NOTICEABLY  
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS HOTTER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL US WRAPS AROUND  
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID  
60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH  
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z AT KSLK, KMPV, AND KRUT. BRIEF PERIOD  
OF NO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND THEN AS  
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD  
SEE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 09Z AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 15Z.  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON  
NEAR TERM...EVENSON  
SHORT TERM...DUELL  
LONG TERM...DUELL  
AVIATION...EVENSON  
 
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