028
FXUS61 KBTV 181133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 232 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 232 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. SEASONABLE WEEK WITH SOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
2. SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ON TRACK FOR THE
SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 232 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK IS IN STORE WITH
RELATIVELY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH,
AVOIDING ANY MAJOR INTRUSIONS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, THE
DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE WILL
YET AGAIN BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN VERMONT TODAY,
FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THE DAY WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY. SO
OVERALL, IT WILL BE QUITE A SEASONABLE DAY. WHILE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT,
BRIGHT SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S. SOME VALLEYS WILL START OUT
UNDER NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS FOR THE EARLY MORNING THOUGH. GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY, A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. HOWEVER, SEVERAL FACTORS WILL
HINDER ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DRY AIR ALOFT, LOCALLY
OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, WEAKENING DYNAMICS, LOW
CAPE VALUES, AND POTENTIAL MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALL ATTEMPT TO
KILL ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SO WHILE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
YET AGAIN UNLIKELY. AFTER, SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SOMEWHAT UNUSUALLY DEEP 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DOWNWIND WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA AT
SOME POINT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE MERIDIONAL (SOUTH-NORTH)
COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PER
NAEFS MEAN RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY. EXPECT SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED WITH THIS SETUP, BUT THANKFULLY THERE ARE
ARE NO SIGNALS FOR NOTEWORTHY MOISTURE OR HEAT TO ADVECT NORTHWARD,
WHICH LIMITS POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL/HAZARDOUS WEATHER. AS SUCH, THE
LATEST 48 HOUR RAINFALL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 1" OF RAIN ARE
ONLY IN THE 15 - 40% RANGE WITH 2" PROBABILITIES UP TO 10% AND
MAINLY UNDER 5%. GREATEST CHANCES OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPEAR PRIMARILY IN NORTHWESTERN VERMONT AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTWARD INTO THE VALLEY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MERIDIONAL WINDS AND LIKELY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW, WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH AT LEAST
PERIODS OF SHOWERS, SO POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON MONDAY MAY TEND TO
INCREASE EVEN IF AN ALL DAY TYPE OF RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY.
GENERALLY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY, SUCH THAT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TEMPORARILY WELL BELOW NORMAL (FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT WARM) BEFORE RECOVERING FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALL AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE AROUND FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS WITH HIGH PRESSURE/LIGHT WINDS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VERY LIGHT FLOW AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS HAS
RESULTED IN PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS AT SLK/MPV/BTV/EFK, AND
IFR CONDITIONS AT RUT. THESE SITES SHOULD SEE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 15Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW. WITH DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN DURING THE DAY WITH SUNSHINE
BREAKING OUT, RADIATION FOG MAY PROVE DIFFICULT OR SLOW TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST BR FORMATION AFTER 06Z AT EFK,
SLK AND MPV, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DURATION AND INTENSITY OF
FOG IS UNCLEAR WITH SOME MIXED SIGNALS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA, PATCHY BR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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