475  
FXUS61 KBTV 231749  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
1249 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOCALIZED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN GREENS. COLD AND RAW  
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND  
COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO -10 TO  
-25 DEGREES F. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE  
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT  
WHERE THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. SEASONABLY COLD  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE VALUES MODERATE  
FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1226 PM EST SATURDAY...THE GOING FORECAST CONTINUES ON  
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. ONE OF WHICH WAS TO  
INCREASE WIND GUSTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  
SAID GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING THIS  
AFTERNOON IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. THE OTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT  
WAS TO TWEAK FORECAST CLOUD COVER TO MATCH TRENDS IN  
OBSERVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER DECREASING  
WITHIN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, THE  
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES ALONG  
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS  
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN CHAMPLAIN  
VALLEY. FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING BLOCKED FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN  
GREENS, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
OVER MUCH OF CHITTENDEN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN VERMONT THIS  
MORNING. EXPECTING BLOCKING TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE LATE  
MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR  
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO SHUT OFF AS  
THE DAY PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN GREENS, EXPECT LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-8+  
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.  
 
OTHERWISE, VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON TRACK FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY  
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLS IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. RELATIVELY  
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE  
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY  
WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH TODAY, WITH  
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE  
IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND  
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO DEGREES F FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.  
 
THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WHICH  
WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS  
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE  
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT, WHICH  
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS BUT AT THE SAME TIME CREATE  
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE  
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NY ALONG WITH ESSEX AND ORLEANS  
COUNTIES IN VERMONT, WHERE WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 ARE EXPECTED  
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN -10 AND -  
20 DEGREES F. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL  
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE  
WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND +10  
DEGREES F. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 327 AM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE  
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE  
REGION AND THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST AREAS  
WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO  
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EVERYWHERE LOWS SHOULD  
EASILY GET IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. PLACES SUCH AS  
SARANAC LAKE SHOULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT VALUES BELOW ZERO...FORECASTING  
-12F RIGHT NOW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND  
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM  
THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 327 AM EST SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER  
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW  
ALOFT BACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOME  
OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MAY BE ON THE FRINGE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW  
AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND  
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA REMAINING IN PLACE TO KEEP US IN A  
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH JUST A SLOW WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WITHIN THE SAINT  
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS HAVE RESULTED IN VFR CIGS AT  
KMSS, KPBG, AND KBTV. MEANWHILE, UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW HAS  
PRODUCED LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KSLK, KMPV, AND KRUT. IN  
ADDITION, LIGHT SNOW IS CAUSING INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR  
VIS AT KMPV AND KRUT. SAID LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON  
AND OFF AT THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL 21Z. AFTER WHICH TIME, A RETURN  
TO VFR VIS CAN BE EXPECTED THOUGH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN BLOCKED  
WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO  
DEVELOP/PERSIST AT KSLK, KBTV, KMPV, AND KRUT MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z  
AND 06Z. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THEREAFTER, SCOURING  
OUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER.  
 
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS.  
GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PEAKING IN  
THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE AND DECREASING AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER, A  
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER  
00Z, RESULTING IN LLWS AT KSLK, KMPV, AND KRUT BETWEEN 06Z AND  
18Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST  
SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004.  
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST  
SUNDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DUELL  
NEAR TERM...DUELL/HAMMOND  
SHORT TERM...EVENSON  
LONG TERM...EVENSON  
AVIATION...HAMMOND  
 
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