869  
FXUS61 KBTV 152033  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
333 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
SYSTEM. ON SUNDAY, A SNOW AND SLEET MIX WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN  
VERMONT JUST BEFORE NOON WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF VERMONT AND  
NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY  
BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. SNOW  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
BE SEEN ON MONDAY WITH UPSLOPE LOCATIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN LIKELY  
TO SEE AN INCH OR TWO WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SEE LESS THAN AN INCH.  
THESE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. DRIER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEEN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM  
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 332 PM EST SATURDAY...FILTERED SUNSHINE BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL  
PASSAGE HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY THIS  
AFTERNOON. DON'T GET TOO ATTACHED TO THE FILTERED SUNSHINE AS A  
THICK BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER RESIDING TO OUR SOUTH HAS ALREADY BEGUN  
TO MARCH NORTHWARD. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY SLOW TO FALL WITH A MIX OF LOW  
AND HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO INSULATE THE SURFACE WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING  
OUT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. WHILE THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET  
OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY, A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
STEADILY MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HEADING INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS ATLANTIC  
MOISTURE COUPLES WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AS IT TRACKS  
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.  
 
A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES  
JUST PRIOR TO NOON ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BEEN VERY  
TRICKY AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE LOW TRACK DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY  
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH OR HOW FAR NORTH A WARM NOSE  
AROUND 850 MB MOVES IN. BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE, THERMAL PROFILES  
SUPPORT AN HOUR OR SO OF MIXED SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS SOUTHERN  
VERMONT BUT GIVEN THE LOW CURRENT LOW TRACK, THE WARM NOSE WILL  
LIKELY RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW  
THE ATMOSPHERE TO WET-BULB (ADIABATICALLY COOL) DURING THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY  
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS  
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT UP TO TWO  
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN  
MOUNTAINS. SNOW CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A PUSH OF  
DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 332 PM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON  
MONDAY AS A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. THE DAY  
WILL LIKELY START OUT FAIRLY DRY AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT  
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND BEST DYNAMICS SWING ACROSS THE  
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, SO ANTICIPATE  
MAINLY SNOW THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, THOUGH IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH  
IN THE WIDER VALLEYS FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE  
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE DEEPENING SLOW  
MOVING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS  
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST, FOCUSING THE SNOW ON THE FAVORED UPSLOPES  
OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY WANING AS  
WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1 TO 3  
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS IN THOSE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.  
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NOVA SCOTIA  
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35  
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE  
IN COVERAGE TUESDAY, WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY DRY. WE MAY SEE A  
BIT OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CONTINUING COLD  
ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT A CHILLY DAY. HIGHS WILL  
BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 332 PM EST SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE  
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A STINT OF DRY AND  
COLD WEATHER. HOWEVER, THINGS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE HEAD INTO  
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS  
NORTH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, LIKELY  
STARTING OUT AS SNOW, BUT WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE IT OVER  
TO RAIN ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS WITH A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX DURING THE  
TRANSITION. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, LIKELY CHANGING BACK  
OVER TO SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE  
NORTHWEST. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POTENTIALLY  
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, POTENTIALLY IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE  
AREAS IN THE GREENS. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WAYS OUT, SO WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE MODEL TRENDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK HAVE  
TRENDED VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KSLK SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT  
QUICKLY WITH MODELS INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL IS  
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH  
WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH KSLK AND KRUT  
SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO FALL AFTER 18Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SN.  
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE  
SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR. CHANCE SHSN.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHSN.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CLAY  
NEAR TERM...CLAY  
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS  
LONG TERM...HASTINGS  
AVIATION...CLAY  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page