404
FXUS61 KBTV 131912
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RIGHT OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRIER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND THURSDAY WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY.
THE SHOWER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME ITS LOOKS LIKE
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 312 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
PULSE STORMS BEING THE RULE TODAY AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE HAD A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR
NORTHERN VERMONT. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA
HAVE HELPED TO SET UP AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS ESSEX
COUNTY, NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, BUT AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES LAKE ONTARIO WE WILL SEE INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED PULSE STORMS FORMING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME KNOWN WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
SOME OF THE CONVECTION TODAY.
EVENTUALLY WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY AND THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
DIMINISHES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. CAN SEE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE ONE AREA THAT MAY LOSE OUT A BIT WILL BE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AS THEY WILL BE A BIT NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 312 PM EDT MONDAY...WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
GREAT DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN HOWEVER, AS THE
RIDGING IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG AS IT WAS LOOKING IN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTORM, MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE RIDGING WILL WIN
OUT AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 312 PM EDT MONDAY...ON THURSDAY, THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT
TO OUR EAST AND DEEP SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S, DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO
GULF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RESULTANT SHOWERS SWEEPING THROUGH.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM, AND EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST, SO
SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING AS WE BEGIN TO NARROW DOWN TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH. NOTING HIGH PW VALUES AND DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, SO SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD A GOOD CLIP SO NO FLOODING
ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
QUITE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE CHANNELED.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY, AND COULD STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ANY AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR DURING THE MORNING WILL HAVE THE MOST
DESTABILIZATION, AND COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL TSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY GOES THROUGH.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY DRIER AND NOTICEABLY
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS HOTTER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL US WRAPS AROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z AT KSLK, KMPV, AND KRUT. BRIEF PERIOD
OF NO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND THEN AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD
SEE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 09Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 15Z.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DUELL
LONG TERM...DUELL
AVIATION...EVENSON
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