131  
FXUS61 KBTV 051815  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON SUNDAY.  
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIT-OR-MISS,  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 156 PM EDT SATURDAY...** HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM  
NOON THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS  
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY **  
 
A BEAUTIFUL EVENING IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOW 80S AND COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. RADAR IS  
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ARE SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADS  
SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC, BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MOST OF THIS IS  
NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SOME 10 TO 30  
PERCENT POPS THIS EVENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT  
ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE LIGHT AND MOST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA  
WILL REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES  
WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHWARD.  
 
OVERALL SYNOPTIC STAGE IS SET FOR A BRIEF BUT DANGEROUS WARMUP  
STARTING TONIGHT AND PEAKING TOMORROW (SUNDAY). A BERMUDA HIGH  
IS IN PLACE WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE  
EASTERN US. A STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH AND EAST  
WILL TRANSPORT WARM AND MUGGY AIR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US  
STARTING TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO  
70 DEG F, WHICH IS NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.  
 
EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON BOTH CLOUD COVER  
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN  
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, THE NAM HAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS, AND THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE  
TEMPS. MEANWHILE, THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR FROM  
THE MID-LEVELS, BRINGING SURFACE TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND DEWPOINTS  
SLIGHTLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BLENDED  
SOLUTION, WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE CHAMPLAIN,  
SAINT LAWRENCE, AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER 80S  
TO AROUND 90 IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF  
EASTERN VERMONT. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S,  
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY  
LEVELS. OVERALL APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 90S OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT RIVER  
VALLEY, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM  
SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW  
90S.  
 
IN ADDITION TO HEAT SUNDAY, WILL BE WATCHING A TIGHT BOUNDARY THAT  
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, BRINGING  
SOME WINDS AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A 40 TO 45 KNOT  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, WHICH WILL CREATE  
SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY  
WILL YIELD SBCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF OUR  
AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING SUNDAY,  
HOWEVER IF THE SHARP BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OR IF  
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE SOUTH, IT WOULD SUPPORT THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
BEST CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  
BEST SHEAR WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, BUT AREAS NEAR OUR  
NORTHERN BORDER WILL SEE 35 TO 45 KNOTS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, WHICH  
WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS IF ANY CONVECTION WERE TO  
MATERIALIZE. THE THREAT OVERALL IS VERY CONDITIONAL, WITH A  
POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL INVERSION PRESENT ON SOME SOUNDINGS THAT  
COULD GREATLY LIMIT INSTABILITY, AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON  
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND LOCATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 156 PM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA, THOUGH  
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL  
LINGER OVER OUR AREA OR QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH. GIVEN THAT MANY  
INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT,  
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE IN OUR  
HYDROLOGY THREAT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO 1.9+ INCHES, WHICH IS 2 TO 2.5  
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS (IN EXCESS OF 13 KFT) WILL PROMOTE  
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW  
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT PRESENTS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING  
CELLS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL  
WILL BE MONDAY TO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DIURNAL  
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL FURTHER INCREASE  
PRECIPITATION RATES IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. GIVEN  
THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS, IT'S DIFFICULT TO PEG DOWN EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  
HOWEVER, THE 06Z AND 12Z SUITE OF MODELS ARE LINING UP ON THE  
CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75  
INCH RANGE FOR MONDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING WOULD  
RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SO OVERALL AT THIS POINT,  
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE FRONT FOR MONDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT  
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT HYDRO IMPACTS GIVEN THESE FORECAST  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST HEADING INTO  
MID TO LATE WEEK LOOKS TO BEGIN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HUMID, BUT  
NOT OPPRESSIVE AIR. CONFLUENT FLOW CREATED BY HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN  
CANADA WILL DRAW SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF MID-  
LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY DRY DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE WILL TAKE TIME TO RECOVER BEHIND THE  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHORTWAVES LOOK RIDE ALONG THE UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE AMPLIFICATION OF  
THE MAIN TROUGH STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES.  
THE GEFS AND GEPS INDICATE A MORE BROAD TROUGH WHICH WOULD ALLOW  
FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM PERIODIC SHORTWAVE  
PASSAGES. HOWEVER, THE EPS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A MORE DEFINED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION  
BETWEEN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON BOUNDARY AND CURRENT TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL WILL HELP GIVE A BETTER PICTURE AS TO WHAT THE UPPER-  
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GOING FORWARD. WHILE NO IMPACTS ARE  
EXPECTED FROM CHANTAL, A SLOWER SYSTEM WILL STALL THE BOUNDARY  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LEAD TO A QUASI- STATIONARY  
BLOCKING PATTERN, WHEREAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL KEEP  
MOISTURE MOVING LEADING TO POTENTIALLY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES GOING  
FORWARD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM  
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO, ALONG  
WITH SOME HAZE AND SMOKE ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. NO  
TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE HAZE AND SMOKE MAY LEAD  
TO BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 6SM. OTHERWISE, CALM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT MSS/EFK THROUGH  
THE EVENING, THOUGH NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE  
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE GREENS,  
AND VARIABLE EAST OF THE GREENS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS.  
TOMORROW, GUSTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MSS/SLK TO  
NEAR 25 KTS BY 16-18Z AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LLWS  
THREAT HAS DECREASED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD  
OVERNIGHT AT PBG.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BRING US WITHIN A FEW  
DEGREES OF RECORD TEMPS FOR A FEW SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORD  
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY:  
 
MAX TEMP RECORDS  
DATE KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK  
07-06 95|2010 91|2010 95|1993 93|2010 91|1933  
 
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY:  
 
HIGH MIN TEMP RECORDS  
DATEKBTV KPBG KSLK  
07-06 74|1897 74|2010 65|1931  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ001-002-005-  
009-011-021.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ028-035.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DUELL  
NEAR TERM...DUELL  
SHORT TERM...DUELL  
LONG TERM...DANZIG  
AVIATION...DANZIG  
CLIMATE...NWS BTV  
 
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