376
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND VALLEY HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1043 PM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ONLY NOTICEABLE TWEAK WAS TO
ADJUST SKY TRENDS AS CLEARING TAKING PLACE A BIT QUICKER ACROSS
PARTS OF VERMONT. THIS HAS LED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS WELL. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE QUITE WEAK IN FLAT P-GRADIENT,
WITH LIGHT N-NW GRADIENT FLOW IN PLACE. GOES-16 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW PARTIAL
CLEARING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH DRIER AIR MASS
TRYING TO WORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THAT SAID,
STILL ABUNDANT STRATUS/STRATOCU ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH
OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT AT 19Z. WITH ONLY WEAK ADVECTION,
ANTICIPATE VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS IT WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT LINGERING
MOISTURE IN 2-5KFT LAYER. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND 2-M DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S WILL LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR LOWS MAINLY 35-40F, WITH A FEW SPOTS 33-35F ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. IN SPOTS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT FOR
A FEW HOURS TONIGHT, MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO, MAY
SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR SUNDAY, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR 850-700MB TROUGH AND DECAYING
FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN DWINDLING THROUGH THE DAY, AND OVERALL FORCING WILL NOT BE
IMPRESSIVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA FOR DEVELOPING OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
POPS 30-50% FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STARTING TOWARD MID-DAY IN
NY, AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN VT. OVERALL RAINFALL
EXPECTED <0.10" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND LESS THAN 0.05"
AT MOST OF THE ASOS LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS TURN LIGHT S-SW
SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS, AND 49-52F ACROSS NRN NY
WHERE THICKER/LOWER OVERCAST ARRIVES EARLIER IN THE DAY. SHOULD
SEE POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 5-10MPH DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
CONSENSUS ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRE- DAWN
LOWS NEAR FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 244 PM EDT SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AT BOTH THE LOW
LEVELS AND MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THIS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S UNDER
CALM WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR
REPEAT OF MONDAY EXCEPT WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 244 PM EDT SATURDAY...WE BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO A WETTER AND
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
BEFORE IT EXITS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SEVERELY LACKING AS NO PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW TO ALLOW FOR AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER, A MORE
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM IS POTENTIALLY IN THE WORKS FOR THURSDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A DEVELOPING LOW NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WE SHOULD BE WELL WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO HOW WARM DO WE GET
ON THURSDAY AND CAN WE MANAGE ANY INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING ABOUT 50-100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT THERE AREN'T
ANY SIGNS THAT STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PLAUSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ELEVATIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COOLER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ACTING TO ENHANCE LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAIN BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
HOVERING BETWEEN -4 AND -6 DEGREES C.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT CEILINGS IN THE 2000
TO 4000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY, BUT COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...CLAY
LONG TERM...CLAY
AVIATION...EVENSON
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