623
FXUS61 KBTV 251050
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 253 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 253 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
2. A DRY AND SEASONABLE WEEKEND WILL TREND SHOWERY AND MORE
HUMID BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 253 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BOTH CROSS OUR AREA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR SEVERE WEATHER. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY GOES ON AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION, AND
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AS
WELL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PARENT LOW
DEPARTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO TREND DRIER
AS OUR FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE
SOME SIGNS OF SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST, WHICH MAY SPUR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
EASTERN ONTARIO. SOME OF WHICH COULD BRING SOME INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY (THOUGH
POPS ARE STILL BELOW 20%). TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S, THOUGH A FEW SPOT LOW 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN, WIDER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE UPPER 40S
ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 50S BY MONDAY. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
WILL BE A RESULT OF A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA TO START
NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH WITH
THE GFS ENSEMBLES DENOTING A CONTINUE MORE ZONAL PATTERN,
WHEREAS THE EURO ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CMC AS WELL. THE FORECAST WILL
LIKELY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS RESOLVE THIS FEATURE
BETTER IN THE DAYS TO COME. AS OF RIGHT NOW, MOST OF THE AREA
HAS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S WHICH DOES SEEM TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOST
GUIDANCE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE PATTERN BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING
TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH MVFR CIGS ON THE LEADING
EDGE AND IFR CIGS ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST TERMINAL
REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND NOT FOG. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP AS CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LOW MVFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AT MSS. ELSEWHERE, LOW STRATUS WILL TREND
MOST SITES TOWARDS MVFR CIGS AT LEAST BETWEEN 2000-3500 FT AGL.
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY TREND CEILINGS LOWER TO 1000-2000FT AGL
AT MSS/SLK, AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK THROUGH 13-15Z. WITH DIURNAL MIXING, CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO
2500-3500FT AGL BY 18Z, THEN PERHAPS ALL VFR BEYOND 21-23Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE LOW CEILINGS,
WITH ONLY PROB30 CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR SHOWERS AT A
TERMINAL. ALL SITES WILL SEE VCSH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE OF A SHOWER MOVING OVER A TERMINAL IS ONLY 30-40%
AT THIS TIME.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS SHIFTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z FROM WEST TO
EAST. MODELS DENOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDS SHIFT TO THE
EAST AT PBG DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
HOWEVER, THE SHIFT LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND QUICKLY
OVERTAKEN BY THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLIES. WINDS TREND CALM
AND VARIABLE WITH A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOG
TOWARDS 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT AT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/NEILES
AVIATION...DANZIG
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