613  
FXUS61 KBTV 291803  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
203 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS  
FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. SATURDAY  
WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF  
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 908 AM EDT THURSDAY...RAIN CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD  
ACROSS NEW YORK WITH LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO  
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SLIGHT UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE  
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS THIS  
AREA AND CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE  
ITS TREK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, REACHING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY  
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE  
AND RADAR IMAGERY, A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN  
MCS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE  
TOWARDS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAIN TO OUR  
SOUTH, HOWEVER THE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE, ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW, WILL PROVIDE THE  
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATER EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS THIS MCS MOVES ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN TIED TO THIS FEATURE  
AND THUS SOUTH OF OUR AREA, IN TURN BRINING WITH IT THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO  
THE REGION AFTER 18Z, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
AREA BY 00Z. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER STILL REMAINS FAIRLY  
LOW GIVEN NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING PROFILES, HOWEVER HAVE  
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN  
NEW YORK AND CENTRAL VERMONT AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY  
IS PRESENT. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL,  
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA (WHICH STILL  
REMAIN IN MODERATE DROUGHT). QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY  
BETWEEN 0.25-0.75", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.  
 
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS ON  
FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE FRONT  
CROSS THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER  
AIRMASS AS NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WHILE STILL JULY, THIS FRONT  
WILL BRING A SMALL TASTE OF FALL WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN  
THE LOW/MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS  
UPWARDS OF 20 MPH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 507 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA  
FRIDAY EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE  
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY  
SHOWERS OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FRIDAY EVENING  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.  
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 507 AM EDT THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY  
NIGHT, BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING  
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL  
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS ON MONDAY AND FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,  
THE WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TAKING  
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE  
RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER  
80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CHANGEABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,  
THOUGH LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH LOWERING  
CIGS. BY 21Z, A TREND TOWARDS MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL  
TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF  
PERIOD WITH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4 MILES POSSIBLE.  
TOWARDS 06Z, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY  
CROSSES THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE  
AT KSLK AND KMPV. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KT  
TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION  
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TOWARDS 08Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN OUT  
OF THE W/NW FOR NORTHERN NY TERMINALS, INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS  
AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE  
POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
SUNDAY: VFR. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LAROCCA  
NEAR TERM...HAMMOND/LAROCCA  
SHORT TERM...EVENSON  
LONG TERM...EVENSON  
AVIATION...HAMMOND/LAROCCA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page