133
FXUS61 KBTV 181859
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
259 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. BREEZES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY GIVEN VERY DRY
VEGETATION AND ONGOING DROUGHT. FROST AND A FEW AREAS OF
FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
* DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
* STRONG COOLING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
AS OF 228 PM EDT THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A THERMALLY SHARP COLD FRONT. WHILE THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHT AND WILL DRIVE SOME BREEZES, MOISTURE
IS VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LEADING ONLY TO 15-40%
CHANCES OF A SHOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
WEAKENS WHILE IT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE ON UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE NORTHERN GREENS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH
MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED MIXING. GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST LOCATION WITH AROUND 25 MPH
ON PORTIONS AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE
TERRAIN CHANNELS THE FLOW PATTERN AND ON UPPER MID SLOPES AND
RIDGES. PEAKS COULD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES. WHILE
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY, MIXING INCREASES ALLOWING
FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH AND MORE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH EXCESSIVELY DRY
VEGETATION WILL PROMOTE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PLEASE, SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING MARKEDLY COLDER WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FREEZES IN ESSEX COUNTY VERMONT AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND WESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD SEE LOWS RANGING IN
THE 30S WITH PROBABLE FROSTS AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 228 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS A DESSICATED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
STRONGLY FAVORED TO SHARPLY DECREASE FORTUNATELY, SO FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL WILL TREND DOWN SOME FROM FRIDAY'S MORE
ELEVATED CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AREA WIDE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZES FOR SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 228 PM EDT THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES, SWINGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.
THE DISTURBANCE COULD BRINGS RAIN INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE SAYING AROUND HERE GOES "WHEN IN DROUGHT,
LEAVE IT OUT". THAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS
NOT COME INTO FOCUS. IN GENERAL, ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A WETTER
SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MORE OF A BLOCKING PATTERN
INHIBITING PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE TEENS AT MSS. A WEAK
FRONT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT, DROPPING CEILINGS INTO MVFR
TERRITORY STARTING AROUND 03Z. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES OVER, WITH EFK LOOKING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES. EITHER WAY, SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED. THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH STRONGER FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK WILL LIMIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AROUND 15Z TOMORROW, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
MARINE
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
CONSIDERING OUR PERIOD OF VERY PROLONGED DRYNESS, THERE WILL BE
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
ON SATURDAY. FIRST, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THURSDAY
NIGHT'S MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE GUSTING 15-20MPH IN
GENERAL WITH AROUND 25MPH NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND ALONG EXPOSED
MID/UPPER SLOPES. MINIMUM RH WILL GENERALLY RANGE 30-50% WITH
LOWEST RH OCCURRING IN LOWER VALLEYS WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSLOPES AND RIDGES.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH WIDESPREAD 20-35%) DEVELOP FOR
SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD; WINDS WILL DROP
SUBSTANTIALLY BECOMING LIGHT. FORTUNATELY, WINDS AND DRIEST
CONDITIONS DO NOT PHASE WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF LEAVES REMAIN
ON TREES. STILL, GIVEN RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, IT WILL BE
PRUDENT TO LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF SPARKS TO AVOID ACCIDENTAL FIRE
STARTS.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ004.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ030-031.
SYNOPSIS...BOYD
NEAR TERM...BOYD
SHORT TERM...BOYD
LONG TERM...LANGBAUER
AVIATION...LANGBAUER
FIRE WEATHER...TEAM BTV
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