027
FXUS61 KBTV 072331
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 231 PM EDT THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY. SHOWER
COVERAGE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH NEITHER DAY LOOKS
LIKE A WASHOUT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 231 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. AFTER A COLD, FROSTY NIGHT TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
2. MIXED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.
3. COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWER CHANCES NEXT WEEK BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 231 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: TODAY'S BEEN SOMEWHAT COOL AND BREEZY, BUT OVERALL A
PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY NOSES IN
TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS. GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S THIS AFTERNOON, OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MEANS
WE'LL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GROWING SEASON IS ONLY CONSIDERED TO HAVE STARTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO IT'S ONLY HERE THAT WE'D CONSIDER ANY FROST
ADVISORIES. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN HOW PERVASIVE FROST WILL
BE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
OUTLYING AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE MID 30S, BUT IT WOULD
ONLY BE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, WITH MARGINAL FROST FORMATION POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, WOULD EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO PREVAIL IN MUCH OF
THE VALLEY, WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S. RATHER THAN CONFUSE THE ISSUE BY
HOISTING AN ADVISORY FOR MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE AND MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES, HAVE OPTED TO FOREGO ANY HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND LET
THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF. HOWEVER, ANYONE WITH SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR VEGETATION MAY WANT TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS JUST IN CASE,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND BREEZY DAY, AS WE'LL REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH.
COLD AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND LIKE TODAY, CLOUDS WILL BUBBLE UP IN RESPONSE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS WE'LL HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SCOOTING BY OVERHEAD, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SPITE OF THE FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY;
MOST PLACES SHOULD GET INTO THE 50S, THOUGH SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER
LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY TO OUR
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A COUPLE OF FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE
STILL DIVIDED ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THERE COULD BE A FAIRLY TIGHT
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SHOWERS THOUGH, SO JUST A
SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER
ONE SEES A MOSTLY DRY DAY OR MOSTLY RAINY. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
POPS FAIRLY BROAD FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OR LESS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOW/MID 60S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PASSAGE OCCURS, BUT IN
GENERAL, EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS RAIN TO FALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT
LIKE SATURDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FAIRLY MEAGER, PERHAPS UP TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY,
EXCEPT WARMEST SOUTH (AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE MID 60S), WITH
MID/UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LARGE SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND AND BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS.
WHILE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL
AIRMASS AND HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL CAUSE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT. DUE TO THE COOL AIRMASS THERE IS FROST POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK,
BUT THAT WOULD REQUIRE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OVERNIGHT, SOMETHING THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 6000 FT AGL AND CLEAR
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-13 KNOTS AND GUSTS 16 TO 26 KNOTS WILL TREND LIGHT OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS 00Z-02Z. AFTER 13-15Z, WEST
TO WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TOWARDS 7-11 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DRY
POCKETS, WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS BENEATH THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. PROB30S HAVE BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 16Z-23Z, BUT ANY IMPACTS TO
CEILING OR VISIBILITY WILL BE MINIMAL, IF ANY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/HASTINGS
AVIATION...HAYNES
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