916  
FXUS61 KBTV 220904  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
404 AM EST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MARKED WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S  
BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW  
SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANY SURFACES THAT  
HAVE LINGERING PONDING OF WATER FROM FRIDAY'S RAIN WILL FREEZE  
QUICKLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK ROAD SURFACES.  
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH BELOW ZERO WIND  
CHILLS IN THE MORNING AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER  
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES  
RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 344 AM EST THURSDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN NEW  
YORK, BUT MAINLY AS VIRGA WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND.  
NO AUTOMATED SITES HAVE RECORDED MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN, BUT  
HAVE REPORTED PERIODS OF SPRINKLES. AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING  
IS TRACKING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH 50+ DBZ RETURNS.  
THIS AREA WILL TRACK CLOSE TO MASSENA AND PORTIONS OF THE ST  
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR A  
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF BEFORE IT RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHWARD.  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TODAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTH  
COUNTRY. MODEL PROGNOSIS FAVORS A CLOSED CIRCULATION TRACKING  
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK BEFORE OPENING INTO A WAVE AT 850MB. WITH  
DYNAMICS WEAKENING, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT  
THERE IS A NOTICEABLE FOCUS ON THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN  
MOUNTAINS WHERE 0.25-0.4" OF QPF IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE,  
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25". WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S  
TODAY, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAINFALL BEFORE TEMPERATURES  
COOL OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO FALL. THERMAL PROFILES  
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS,  
AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS FOR A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT BEFORE  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO ALL  
SNOW; CAN'T RULE OUT SOME A PERIOD OF BRIEF, LIGHT ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT PRECEDING RAIN AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES  
WILL LIKELY LIMIT IMPACTS AND ACCRETION TO MAINLY ELEVATED  
SURFACES. AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ALSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF  
PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WITH THE SPINE OF THE  
GREENS POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING UP TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SWITCHING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LATE  
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE  
NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING MORE ACUTE IMPACTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 344 AM EST THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FRIDAY NIGHT AS  
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IMPRESSIVE  
ISOTHERM PACKING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP 2-6 DEGREES PER HOUR AT TIMES DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S  
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (EXCEPT  
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER  
TEENS). THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL FORCING  
IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT SOME OF  
THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE COMING IN AT THIS HOUR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT  
ANY SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL BUT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOLLOWING THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF YOU THOUGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TEMPERATURES  
WERE COLD, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS WELL  
BELOW ZERO FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
SATURDAY IS GOING TO BE AN UNCOMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS  
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE  
GIVEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY  
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS  
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH  
DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 2000 FT. THOSE WHO PLAN FOR  
OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES ON SATURDAY SHOULD PLAN TO DRESS FOR  
ONE OF THE COLDEST AIR MASSES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THESE COLD  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN  
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 344 AM EST THURSDAY...JUST A QUICKLY AS THE COLD AIR MOVED IN  
FRIDAY NIGHT, WARMER AIR WILL RUSH BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND USHER IN  
A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY  
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A GOOD  
BIT COOLER BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WITH CLOUD  
COVER BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS,  
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
20S, WHICH IS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.  
OVERALL, THE WARMER TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  
MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE A  
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WILL  
BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHEN THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ANY NEW SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD QUICKLY MELT AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON NEXT  
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH A NEAR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CROSSING THE  
CENTRAL US. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
TROUGH, WE COULD SEE A DECENT SLUG OF RAINFALL AS THE TROUGH AND  
SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRANSIT THE REGION. IT'S STILL A GOOD WEEK  
OUT BUT DOES BEAR WATCHING AS WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING PROBABLE AT MSS  
AND SLK LATE IN THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT WILL BE INITIALLY 10,000 FT AGL OR HIGHER AND TREND  
TOWARDS 5000 FT AGL LATE.  
 
A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING AN AREA OF 30-35 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY,  
2000 FT AGL WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SPRINKLES INTO NORTHERN NEW  
YORK. SOME LLWS IS INDICATED AT KMSS AS A RESULT THROUGH 12Z,  
WHILE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN GUSTING AT BTV IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS.  
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE DAY, PEAKING CLOSE TO  
30 KTS AT DUE TO CHANNELED SOUTH FLOW AT BTV, AND MORE COMMONLY  
NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE 14Z TO 20Z PERIOD AT OTHER SITES.  
 
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 00-06Z FRIDAY  
WITH CIGS/VIS DETERIORATING TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS AND IFR  
AT SLK/MPV CHANCES INCREASING. RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR BROADER  
VALLEY TERMINALS, BUT A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE 03-06Z DEPENDENT  
ON TIMING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. SLK/MPV WILL BE SNOW WITH LIGHT  
ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE  
SN.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.  
MONDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHSN.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BOYD  
NEAR TERM...BOYD  
SHORT TERM...CLAY  
LONG TERM...CLAY  
AVIATION...BOYD/KUTIKOFF  
 
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