660  
FXUS61 KBTV 180026  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
826 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF  
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS  
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. HUMID AIR WILL LINGER IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY  
IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY. VALLEY HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN  
ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 826 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATES TO SKY COVER, TEMPS AND  
POPS TO BRING FIELDS IN BETTER LINE WITH EXITING SHOWERS/THUNDER  
AND EXPECTED QUIETER WEATHER OVERNIGHT. A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE  
QLCS EVOLVED EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY INTO  
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT. THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG  
AN ENHANCED BAND OF PVA AHEAD OF A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE PUSHING  
THROUGH THE SLV AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE  
WERE FAIRLY COMMONPLACE ALONG THE LINE, INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS  
OF RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST STORM  
REPORTS AND THOSE FROM WFO ALY FOR MORE SPECIFIC DAMAGE  
INFORMATION ACROSS OUR REGION. IN REGARD TO THE OVERNIGHT  
FORECAST, THAT LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK. RELATIVELY SMALL  
WAVELENGTH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRIDGE INTO  
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES. GIVEN THIS EVENING'S RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG A GOOD  
BET IN FAVORED LOCALES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE GREEN MTNS EASTWARD  
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE LIGHTEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TO  
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL MID-AUGUST NORMS IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 60S.  
 
EXCERPTS FROM PRIOR DISCUSSION...  
ON SUNDAY, BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS WITH QUIET WEATHER  
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MODEST MID-LEVEL VORT ARRIVING IN  
WSWLY FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS, AND INCLUDED 20-30 POPS TO COVER  
THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY WARM AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE, WITH HIGHS AGAIN 82-86F IN MOST VALLEY  
SECTIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 301 PM EDT SATURDAY...MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF  
THE WEEK AS CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS 925MB TEMPS TO  
CLIMB TO 22+ DEG C, SUPPORTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
80S TO NEAR 90. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH DEWPOINTS  
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AS A WARM FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AFTERNOON MIXING WILL REDUCE  
DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT  
INDICES SOMEWHAT IN CHECK...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S  
TO LOW 90S EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS IN CLOUD  
COVER WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH -IF CLOUD COVER IS  
MORE THAN EXPECTED WE'D UNDERACHIEVE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS. THERE  
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT POP UP DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS AMID THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS, MAINLY TERRAIN  
DRIVEN DUE TO THE LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING. A COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST EARLY MONDAY  
NIGHT, PUTTING AN END TO ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR IS  
USHERED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL  
BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 301 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST TRENDING A LITTLE LESS  
UNSETTLED FOR THE LONG TERM TIME RANGE AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY  
AND MOISTURE NEXT WEEK LOOKS NOW TO MAINLY STAY TO OUR SOUTH.  
MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS TO TREND TUESDAY DRIER  
WITH RISING CONFIDENCE IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE  
SURFACE AND SUBTLE 500 MB HEIGHT RISES OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH  
925 MB TEMPS WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS MONDAY'S, SOLAR HEATING  
WILL OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN  
RISE INTO THE MID 80S. TUESDAY WILL, HOWEVER, BE NOTICEABLY  
LESS HUMID THAN MONDAY GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE STILL ON TRACK TO  
BE RATHER WET AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, RESULTING IN  
SHOWERY CONDITIONS MID WEEK. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA,  
EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR THE END OF  
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY  
EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG AT KSLK AND KMPV, ROUGHLY IN  
THE 05-12Z TIME FRAME. PATCHY MVFR BR AND/OR BRIEF FG ALSO  
POSSIBLE AT OTHER TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER AT THESE  
SITES. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT.  
AFTER 12Z VFR CONTINUES UNDER LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
FROM 5-10 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO POSSIBLE  
ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD KSLK AND KRUT AFTER 21Z, BUT  
CONFIDENCE LOW ON OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS  
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS  
SHORT TERM...DUELL  
LONG TERM...DUELL  
AVIATION...JMG  
 
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