706
FXUS61 KBTV 202342
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER PASSES TO THE
NORTH. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW,
BUT NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 111 PM EST SATURDAY...VERY WEAK RIDGING HAS JUST PASSED TO THE
EAST, AND WINDS HAVE CHANGED FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE FOR MOST PLACES.
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO CHANNELING AND
DOWNSLOPING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, BRINGING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SOME OF THESE COULD BE CONVECTIVE AND BRIEFLY HEAVY, AS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING/ORGANIZATION WILL BE PRESENT.
OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR, WITH ALMOST EVERYWHERE
SEEING TOTALS UNDER A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY NON-
DIURNAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH THEM HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND FALLING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BRIEF RIDGING
BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 111 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FAST-MOVING ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES,
WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL MANAGE TO
BE EVEN WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH A COUPLE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT MOST. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY KEEP ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE SEASONABLY COOL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE TWENTIES AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 111 PM EST SATURDAY...SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO LOOK AT THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY PERIOD, NONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE TOO IMPACTFUL.
PRIMARY SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHT, WARM ADVECTIVE SNOWS. PROBABILITIES GENERALLY
SUPPORT A 1-4" EVENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN. THEREAFTER, SEASONABLY MILD OF AIR OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN STREAMS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AND INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. DIFFERENCES ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING EXIST
AMONG TODAY'S DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS, BUT CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS
A LACK OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERIODIC RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FROM 10-13Z. BIGGER AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE
THE WINDS WHICH WILL TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
WITH SURFACE GUSTS INCREASING INTO THE 20-30KT RANGE FROM
WHILE AT 1-3KFT LLWS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE IS EXPECTED AT
SELECTED TERMINALS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN CROSSES AREA IN THE
10-15Z TIME FRAME AFTER WHICH WINDS TREND WESTERLY, THOUGH
REMAIN GUSTY TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH THE 25-35 KT RANGE
BY LATE EVENING AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE AS WELL, REACHING 3-6 FEET BY LATE EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL CHANGE WINDS TO WESTERLY AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASE INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE AFTERWARD AND
WAVES WILL COME DOWN QUICKLY, DROPPING INTO THE 1-3 FEET RANGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE DAY GOES ON AND THEY LOOK
TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE TOMORROW EVENING,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...MYSKOWSKI
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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