922
FXUS61 KBTV 011836
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
236 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 235 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACK
AND GREEN MOUNTAIN RANGES. WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOW EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FROST HEADLINES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 235 PM EDT FRIDAY...
1. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
2. WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
3. RAINY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE WIDER VALLEYS BUT COULD SEE A FEW PLACES IN THE NEK AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
WHILE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BELOW 1500 FT, WE DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO FALL; ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACK AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS COME IN TO SHOW
SOME DECENT LIQUID ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS, SO WE NOW EXPECT 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. IT'LL BE A WET SNOW WITH MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING A DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER EXTENDING THROUGH THE DGZ BUT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLY
THAT IMPACTFUL WITH MOST SNOW FALLING ABOVE WHERE MOST PEOPLE LIVE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WE ARE LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG RADITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION. BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY, THE GROWING SEASON STARTS TODAY (MAY 1ST) FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN NY AND VT. GIVEN THE FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD
FROST SATURDAY NIGHT, WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE OUR FIRST FROST
ADVISORY OF THE SEASON BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW TO ISSUE IF
NEEDED. SUNDAY WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE ONCE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 5-12 MPH RANGE. RECENT RAINFALL HAS HELPED WET THE FINE FUELS
BUT WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
THIS WEEKEND BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ON MONDAY, A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK. IT
WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT A FEW DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH AND SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THOSE. THE FIRST ONE
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND BRING A ROUND OF RAIN,
PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN NEW YORK. A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOW PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH THE CENTER LOOKING TO TRACK OVER THE REGION. THE FINAL LOW
LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE CENTER PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IT THAT IT COULD END AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THROUGH FRIDAY, GEFS/EPS/CMCE COMBINED ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING 1 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN ARE 80-100
PERCENT, 2 OR MORE INCHES ARE 30-50 PERCENT, AND 3 OR MORE ARE 0-20
PERCENT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE STRATIFORM AND LIMIT
FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT THE EFFECTS OF POTENTIALLY THREE STORM
SYSTEMS IN A ROW WILL STILL BE WATCHED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CEILINGS AOA 3500
FT. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 04Z SAT AS SHOWERS MOVE INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO BE MVFR BY 08Z. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT KSLK/KRUT/KMPV COULD DROP TO IFR, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. W/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT, BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM AFTER 02Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY FROST.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...CLAY/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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