405
FXUS61 KBTV 221114
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 238 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 238 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. MOSTLY DRY AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND AFTERNOONS
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
2. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RISING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 238 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCK WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING A RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE MAIN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 1,500 AND 2,500 FT DURING THE
PRECIPITATION SO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
RANGE OF A COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AT MOST AND WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A HALF INCH.
THE OTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES DOWN, THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN VERMONT. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH
DURING THIS STRETCH ARE THE FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDLY WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
MINIMUM VALUES LOOKING TO BE BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT BOTH DAYS.
DEEP MIXING INTO A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
CAUSE SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN PLACES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ON THURSDAY, WITH VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. WINDS COME DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE
TO ENTER THE REGION AND END IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND VERMONT SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS A
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. BLENDED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE REGION ARE AROUND 50% AT THIS TIME, WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE SEASONAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S, AND LOWS MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT KRUT AND KMPV WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 15Z AND 18Z RESPECTIVELY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 6KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, LOCALLY SOUTHEAST AT 8-12KTS AT KPBG AND
KRUT, AND MORE SOUTHERLY AT KBTV WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER
10KTS AND GUSTS OVER 20KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY,
ABATING AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
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