533
FXUS61 KBTV 240702
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
202 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 155 AM EST SATURDAY...
THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WATCH AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING, PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A WINTER STORM
WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 155 AM EST SATURDAY...
1. DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -40F EXPECTED. RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA
AND FROSTBITE IS UNUSUALLY HIGH DUE TO THE EXTREME NATURE OF THE
COLD, ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND ANYONE
VENTURING OUTDOORS WITHOUT PROPER COLD WEATHER GEAR.
2. SEVERAL INCHES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR
OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
HAZARDOUS, WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW OCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BOTH THE MORNING EVENING COMMUTES ON MONDAY
WILL BE IMPACTED.
3. CONTINUED COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND MONDAY'S
STORM WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. UPPER LOW PRESSURE LINGERING
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 155 AM EST SATURDAY...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: VERY DANGEROUS COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -40F AREAWIDE. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM TODAY. THIS WILL
BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR, AND GIVEN THE EXTREME
NATURE OF THE COLD, THE RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
AND ANYONE VENTURING OUTDOORS WITHOUT PROPER COLD WEATHER GEAR.
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT NOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST, CLEARING SKIES WITH
ADDED FRESH SNOW FROM THE PRIOR DAYS LAKE EFFECT AND SNOW SQUALLS
ARE HELPING PUSH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH NEGATIVE TEENS TO 20S EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION TO THE DANGEROUS AIR
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO THEIR LOWEST VALUES BETWEEN -20F AND -40F BY
7 AM WITH THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHERN GREENS TO NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WE ARE URGING PEOPLE TO STAY
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIKE
THE ELDERLY AND CHILDREN. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS, PLEASE MAKE SURE
TO WEAR PLENTY OF WARM GEAR, INCLUDING GLOVES OR MITTENS AND A HAT.
ANY EXPOSED SKIN WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROSTBITE IN JUST A FEW
MINUTES. AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS; BRING THEM INSIDE IF AT
ALL POSSIBLE.
THE COLD WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SOME SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WITH PERHAPS SOME 0 TO +3F IN THE WIDER
VALLEYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE -10F TO -
20F. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM OUR NEXT
WINTER STORM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS
TO BE A PERIOD EARLY TONIGHT WHERE RADIATIVE COOLING IS STILL LIKELY
TO TAKE PLACE. AS A RESULT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FRANKLIN AND WESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK, AND ESSEX COUNTY
IN VERMONT FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY, WHERE WIND CHILLS MAY
REMAIN BELOW -20 THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE -5F TO
-20F.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO ISSUE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST 7
INCHES OF SNOW FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE
HAS SHOWN A STABILIZED SWATH OF 7-10" ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
WITH NBM PROGS GENERALLY FAVORING 7 INCHES OF MORE OF SNOW IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.
OVERALL, THERE HASN'T BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED
WEATHER PATTERN. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY, THEN SWINGING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COASTAL LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND OUT
TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC. AMPLIFICATION OF A COASTAL LOW WILL DRAW
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO ALL OF NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDITIONAL
ADVECTION INDUCED BY THE PARENT MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WE WILL RECEIVE WITH A STRONG RETREATING 1040MB HIGH TO
OUR NORTH. HOWEVER,TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS HIGH ERODE
FASTER WITH A DEEPER COASTAL LOW, ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO
ADVECT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FURTHERMORE, THERE LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY STRONG 700-850MB FRONTOGENESIS AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT, AND PERHAPS UP THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES THAT EXCEED 1
INCH PER HOUR RATES AT TIMES. WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH, THE AXIS OF DILATATION WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, PERPENDICULAR TO THE EXPECTED SURFACE TO 850MB LAYER
FLOW. THIS CONVERGENCE ALOFT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MESOSCALE
BANDING WITH A DEFORMATION BAND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THIS FEATURE SETS UP. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PARSE OUT THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES, BUT WITH LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS, THESE
FEATURES ARE TYPICAL.
ALL IN ALL, THE SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH ONLY 1-
2" FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 12" OR MORE
HAS PUSHED A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF CHITTENDEN,
LAMOILLE, AND CALEDONIA COUNTIES, WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
REGION INTO A 7-10" RANGE. THE LOW SPOT TOTAL WISE IS LIKELY TO BE
IN THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY NEAR MASSENA, WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN SOUTH. HOWEVER, SOME ENSEMBLES ARE PROGGING A
RESURGENCE OF SNOW POTENTIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH DECENT 750MB FRONTOGENESIS. TIME WILL TELL
WHERE AND IF THIS RESURGENCE OCCURS. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
FAVORED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE UP TO A 1.5 FT OF SNOW
IS NOT UNREALISTIC, AND THE SOUTHERN SPINE OF THE GREENS COULD
LOCALLY SEE POTENTIALLY 20" IN PLACES LIKE KILLINGTON. SNOW
RATIOS COULD PUSH 25:1 HELPING ACHIEVE THESE HIGHER TOTALS WITH
A DEEP SURFACE TO 20KFT DGZ AND A FULLY SATURATED COLUMN. LIGHT
AND HIGH FLUFF FACTOR DENDRITES ARE EXPECTED. ONE COULD FEASIBLY
CLEAR THEIR DRIVEWAYS AND CARS WITH A LEAF BLOWER. FURTHERMORE,
WHILE ISOLATED TREES OR BRANCHES DOWN CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT DUE TO THE SNOW LOAD, THE SNOW JUST ISN'T GOING TO BE THE
WET, HEAVY TYPE THAT FAVORS MORE UTILITY-BASED IMPACTS. FINALLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE EVEN AFTER THE STORM
PASSES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0, MAKING SHOVELING AND POST STORM CLEANUP
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURE WISE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE FORECAST SCENARIO DEPICTS VARYING DEGREES OF
STRENGTH FOR AN UPPER LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND HOW IT TRANSITIONS
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE. THUS, PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE MORE
PERVASIVE IS CHALLENGING TO COMPLETELY DISCERN AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE, MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
LIGHT. NBM GUIDANCE AGREES ON COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING THE
THEME. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING APPEARS THE MOST
LIKELY TO BE COOLER, WITH MOST EVERYONE BELOW ZERO. SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WILL CONCLUDE THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 08Z. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD
ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES AND VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS 16 TO 25 KNOTS. AFTER 08Z-10Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND TREND TOWARDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
UNTIL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS BEYOND 00Z
SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE.
DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY; BELOW
ARE THE CURRENT RECORDS:
KBTV (BURLINGTON AREA): -4 IN 1907
KPBG (PLATTSBURGH AREA): 0 IN 1976
KSLK (SARANAC LAKE AREA): -10 IN 1936
KMSS (MASSENA): -5 IN 2004
KMPV (MONTPELIER): 0 IN 2004
SJBV1 (ST. JOHNSBURY): -3 IN 1907
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VTZ001>011-016>021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
VTZ001>011-016>021.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VTZ004.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ027-030-031.
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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