703
FXUS61 KBTV 212341
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2020
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL US, BRINGING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 636 PM EST FRIDAY...WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECOUPLE BUT
LIKELY TO REEMERGE TO SOME EXTENT IN SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL
JET MOVES INTO FA. NO CHANGES TO FCST AT THIS TIME.
LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEAR
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST OUT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RIDGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT COLD TEMPERATURES LAST
NIGHT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND OUR
REGION WILL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT
PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WILL SEE A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH WARMING
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, MAINLY TEENS TO SOME LOWER 20S. 925 MB JET
CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WE COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO NORTHERN FRANKLIN
AND CLINTON COUNTIES OF NY , THOUGH BEING AT NIGHTTIME THE
MIXING WILL NOT BE IDEAL. WILL HAVE SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS,
MAINLY 15 TO 25 KTS, IN ANY AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE.
AFTER SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA, MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
OVERHEAD. MORE WARMING IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 30S, JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL HAVE SOME MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON
SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE PUSHES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH. ANY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT RESULT IN
ACCUMULATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY
MILD WITH CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, LOWS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 353 PM EST FRIDAY...OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 40S. THIS IS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MILD WARM AIR ADVECTION AS A TROUGH PASSES TO
THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE.
WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT AT 5-10KTS, THOUGH HIGHER WITHIN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY (10-12KTS) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO
LOW 20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AND EASTERN VERMONT,
WHILE REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S WITHIN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 353 PM EST FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK STARTS OFF
QUIET AND WARM, THOUGH ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK. MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER SPRING- LIKE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
40S. HOWEVER, BECAUSE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR MONDAY COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK
AS FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 50F ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD (UPPER 20S) AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND THERE
EXISTS A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, BUT ULTIMATELY, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM
THE SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE, SO THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS RAIN
AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSISTENT MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM
PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE, AMPLIFYING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME, PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS AS RAIN/SNOW; ALTHOUGH, TRENDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT A WARMER SOLUTION, THUS
FAVORING RAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WITH A
STRONG, EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE LOW DEPARTS EASTWARD, COLD AIR WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS (S IN CHAMPLAIN VLY)
ARE DECEOUPLING A TAD BUT WILL LIKELY REEMERGE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AS LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
LLWS AFTER 03Z AS A 45+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW MOUNTAN FLURRIES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT BE REDUCED AT TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DUELL
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SLW
SHORT TERM...HAMMOND/
LONG TERM...HAMMOND
AVIATION...NEILES/SLW
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