475
FXUS61 KBTV 231749
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2021
SYNOPSIS
LOCALIZED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST TODAY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN GREENS. COLD AND RAW
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO -10 TO
-25 DEGREES F. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT TONIGHT
WHERE THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED. SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE VALUES MODERATE
FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1226 PM EST SATURDAY...THE GOING FORECAST CONTINUES ON
TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. ONE OF WHICH WAS TO
INCREASE WIND GUSTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SAID GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. THE OTHER SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO TWEAK FORECAST CLOUD COVER TO MATCH TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER DECREASING
WITHIN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES ALONG
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING BLOCKED FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GREENS, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF CHITTENDEN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN VERMONT THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING BLOCKING TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO SHUT OFF AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS, EXPECT LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-8+
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.
OTHERWISE, VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ON TRACK FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PULLS IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH TODAY, WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO DEGREES F FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLDEST READINGS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS BUT AT THE SAME TIME CREATE
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NORTHERN NY ALONG WITH ESSEX AND ORLEANS
COUNTIES IN VERMONT, WHERE WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE BETWEEN -10 AND -
20 DEGREES F. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND +10
DEGREES F. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 327 AM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AND THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST AREAS
WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS. RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH FRESH SNOWPACK EVERYWHERE LOWS SHOULD
EASILY GET IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. PLACES SUCH AS
SARANAC LAKE SHOULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT VALUES BELOW ZERO...FORECASTING
-12F RIGHT NOW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 327 AM EST SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW
ALOFT BACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOME
OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL MAY BE ON THE FRINGE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA REMAINING IN PLACE TO KEEP US IN A
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH JUST A SLOW WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WITHIN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS HAVE RESULTED IN VFR CIGS AT
KMSS, KPBG, AND KBTV. MEANWHILE, UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW HAS
PRODUCED LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KSLK, KMPV, AND KRUT. IN
ADDITION, LIGHT SNOW IS CAUSING INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VIS AT KMPV AND KRUT. SAID LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
AND OFF AT THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL 21Z. AFTER WHICH TIME, A RETURN
TO VFR VIS CAN BE EXPECTED THOUGH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN BLOCKED
WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP/PERSIST AT KSLK, KBTV, KMPV, AND KRUT MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THEREAFTER, SCOURING
OUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS.
GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PEAKING IN
THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE AND DECREASING AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER, A
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
00Z, RESULTING IN LLWS AT KSLK, KMPV, AND KRUT BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...DUELL
NEAR TERM...DUELL/HAMMOND
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...HAMMOND
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