071  
FXUS61 KBTV 211351  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
951 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS  
A HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES GOING INTO  
THIS EVENING. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY BEFORE A  
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND BRINGS US BACK TO COOLER  
CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK. SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL  
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING  
STRONG WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 951 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO CLOUD COVER  
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SATELLITE AND TRENDS EXPECTED FOR THE  
AFTERNOON WHICH INCLUDE CLEARING ACROSS VERMONT AND GRADUALLY  
INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NY. STILL ANALYZING INCOMING  
MODEL DATA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TODAY WITH SEVERAL  
DIFFERENT CAMPS OUT THERE, THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE  
BREAKING THE CAP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE MODELS SEEMINGLY  
JUMPING ON BOARD. STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHEN/WHERE  
CONVECTION WILL POP, BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE  
RAPIDLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LINE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXTENDS  
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH, FROM CHICAGO  
ANGLING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC. WHILE THIS FRONT AND  
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR WEST TODAY, CLOUD COVER  
FROM THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER OUR  
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS MAKES A CHALLENGING HIGH  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION (925 MB TEMPS  
RISING TO 20-24 DEG C) AND POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION (PW  
VALUES RISING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF OUR FORECAST  
AREA) WILL MAKE FOR A HOT AND MUGGY DAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO  
ADVERTISE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NY,  
AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD  
BASED ON DEGREE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THESE HIGHS MAY  
NOT QUITE BE REACHED IF CLOUDS FROM THE CANADIAN STORMS LINGER  
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL BE WATCHING SATELLITE TRENDS  
CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES IF NECESSARY.  
EITHER WAY, IT'S GOING TO BE A HOT DAY, AND HAVE CONTINUED HEAT  
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER  
VALLEYS TODAY THAT AREA IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM.  
 
THE OTHER FOCUS FOR TODAY ASIDE FROM THE HEAT IS THE THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL. ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY PRIMED FOR CONVECTION TODAY, AT  
LEAST FOR NEW ENGLAND STANDARDS, THANKS TO PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED  
MIXED LAYER THAT HAS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN US INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. ANOMALOUSLY  
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700 MB LAYER AT THE BASE OF THE EML  
SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TODAY  
THAT WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. ABOVE THE  
CAP HOWEVER, NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 600 AND 700  
MB WITHIN THE EML WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1500-2500  
J/KG CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS  
CLIMB. THINKING DESPITE SOME EROSION OF THE CAP AS SURFACE TEMPS  
TREND TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S, ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL  
REMAIN TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER TYPICAL  
TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SPINE OF THE  
GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE THAT AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF  
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY AS WE LACK ANY LARGE-  
SCALE FORCING. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MESO-ANALYSIS  
TODAY HOWEVER. ANY AREAS WHERE THE CAP ERODES COULD SEE STORMS  
DEVELOP ALONG TERRAIN OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES. THESE  
POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND COULD QUICKLY  
TURN SEVERE, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN  
DIAMETER.  
 
LOOKING A LITTLE LATER INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME,  
SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES FOR  
CONVECTIVE INITIATION UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY ALONG LOCAL  
LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM UPSTREAM WILL  
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE, BUT WILL CONTINUE  
TO POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND UP TO 1" HAIL. AS WE MOVE  
CLOSER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NY INCREASE AS NUMEROUS  
THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY  
TODAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN NY COUNTIES TONIGHT.  
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THIS REMNANT  
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE GOING INTO TONIGHT, BUT STILL CAN'T  
RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY NOCTURNAL  
STORMS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 424 AM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY  
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. A STRONG  
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION, AND MODEL GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THIS FEATURE BY A COUPLE HOURS. WILL HAVE VERY  
MOIST AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING UP INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF  
THE COLD FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES FORM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD  
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
TEMPERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE IT WILL BE CLOUDIER EARLIER  
WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING, MAINLY HIGH 70S TO LOWER 80S THERE.  
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM  
18Z-00Z. CAPE WILL CREEP UP TO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE, BUT STRONGEST  
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG  
DOWNDRAFTS IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT A  
HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. OUR  
REGION ALSO REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE  
OUTLOOK. PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WOULD  
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE STORM MOTIONS OF 30-40KTS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLASH  
FLOODING THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE  
FRONT, WITH THE THREAT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY 00Z CONVECTION WILL  
PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION, THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIE  
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE  
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH QUIETER WEATHER AS A  
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. LOW  
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50, FOLLOWED  
BY HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH  
WILL FEEL COOL FOLLOWING THREE DAYS IN THE 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1021 PM EDT FRIDAY...A CHILLY, RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION  
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN PORTIONS  
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS. VERY  
COMFORTABLE AIR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUN UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH. MODEST LOW LEVEL  
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND SOLAR HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST  
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
THEN WE WILL TREND WETTER AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SENDS WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE FOR MUCH OF  
WEDNESDAY WE MAY SEE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MISS TO OUR NORTH  
AND WEST, BUT THEN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL SHOULD IMPACT THE NORTH  
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY  
SHOULD BE LARGELY SIMILAR TO ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDIER SKIES BUT  
STILL COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. ON THURSDAY, AMPLE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT  
TEMPERATURES DESPITE WARMER AIR ALOFT, CAUSING THE RANGE OF PROBABLE  
TEMPERATURES TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL. THAT WARMING ALOFT WILL BE  
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD PRODUCE  
CHANNELED SOUTH FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE  
CURRENT FORECAST HAS BUMPED UP LAKE CHAMPLAIN WINDS A BIT WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED.  
 
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS AMID THE RAIN  
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE SOME  
CLEARING AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. IF TIMING OF SAID FRONT  
ALIGNS WELL WITH DAYTIME HEATING, CHANCES OF ORGANIZED STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERTOP  
OF A REGION OF INSTABILITY. CURRENTLY NO MODEL CONSENSUS BUT  
BEARS WATCHING AT THIS RANGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR  
HEAVY RAIN. UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WE WILL BE IN A MOIST  
AIR MASS WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
GEFS MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES VALUES SHOULD EASILY  
EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE  
AS AN ATLANTIC FETCH OF MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SUBTROPICAL FROM  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR  
CEILINGS OVER EASTERN VERMONT WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 14Z.  
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z  
TONIGHT. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 22Z, BUT GIVEN SPARSE COVERAGE HAVE JUST  
INCLUDED VCSH AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR NOW. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
DO DEVELOP TODAY COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH  
IN DIAMETER, AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES  
(10 TO 30 MINUTES DURATION). ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO  
MATERIALIZE WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 06Z.  
 
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST  
AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TODAY.  
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z OUTSIDE OF ANY  
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.  
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH  
THE DAY, BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. WAVES 2 TO 4  
FEET THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAY 21 AND SUNDAY, MAY 22  
AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE  
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. HERE ARE THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
DATE KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK  
05-21 92|1911 89|2021 89|2021 89|1975 92|1975 94|1911  
05-22 93|1977 90|1994 84|9999 89|1977 92|1977 91|1911  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ005-009-011-  
021.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...DUELL  
NEAR TERM...DUELL/LAHIFF  
SHORT TERM...NEILES  
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF  
AVIATION...DUELL  
MARINE...WFO BTV  
CLIMATE...WFO BTV  
 
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