621  
FXUS61 KBTV 272342  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
742 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA  
TONIGHT, BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD.  
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE  
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BRINGING LOCALIZED FREEZES AND  
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT  
WINDS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK COLD FRONT  
ACROSS THE SLV ATTM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTTING OUR CWA.  
HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS, BUT OVERALL IDEA OF  
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOOKS  
REASONABLE. TEMPS ARE HOLDING MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH JUST A SLOW  
AND STEADY DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MID 50S  
EXPECTED BY MORNING. ALL ELEMENTS ARE COVERED WELL IN CRNT FCST.  
ANY ADDITIONAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH  
OF AN INCH.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:  
MORE LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE SPREADING THROUGH THE FORECAST  
AREA THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CHURNING  
JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING  
EASTWARD. PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE  
SHOWERS AS PWATS REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR MOST. POPS WILL BE  
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, HIGHEST (40-50%) IN NORTHERN  
NEW YORK WHERE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE STRONGEST. WINDS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,  
DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH THICK CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK KEEPING ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN  
COUNTIES A TOUCH WARMER. MEANWHILE IN VERMONT, CLOUDS WILL  
LIKELY RELENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FOG TO BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE  
USUAL SPOTS, DEPENDING ON WHERE RAIN FALLS.  
 
WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION,  
TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. AS THIS  
FRONT CROSSES LAKE CHAMPLAIN, THERE CAN BE SOME LAKE-BASED CAPE TO  
DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTHEAST, WITH POPS 40-  
50%. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN ALSO SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN  
NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. WEDNESDAY IS ALSO  
FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
50S TO LOWER 60S, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  
 
POPS WILL DECREASE SHARPLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING  
CHANCES IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT WITH 20-30% AND  
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE A  
PARTICULARLY COLD ONE AS AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE  
REGION, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND EVEN SOME SPOTS IN THE 30S. THE  
GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE THE 0C 850MB LINE WILL ENTER  
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 341 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST  
ON THURSDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR DEEP RIDGING TO EXPAND INTO OUR  
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL  
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS NOT SUPER TIGHT, SO NOT  
EXPECTING THURSDAY TO BE TOO BREEZY. MOST AREAS SHOULD JUST SEE  
SOME SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH, LOCALLY  
AROUND 10 MPH ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN. DESPITE THE BUILDING HIGH  
PRESSURE, WE WILL STILL SEE MORNING CLOUDS TO START THE DAY AS LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE  
INVERSION, BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE DAY  
AND BY THURSDAY EVENING SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR.  
 
WITH REGARDS TO THURSDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST, HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE  
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SETTLE  
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF RESULTANT  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT RAPID COOLING DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES  
NEAR FREEZING FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, AND BELOW FREEZING  
FURTHER WEST IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE HIGH WILL BE  
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY  
BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 341 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DIRECTLY  
OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SETTING UP A GREAT END OF THE WEEK  
WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AND  
CONDITIONS WON'T BE AS CHILLY AS THURSDAY. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHILE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY  
DROP TO THE LOW 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...MID 30S LOCALLY IN THE  
COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY  
LOCALIZED FROST IN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, BUT NOTHING  
WIDESPREAD EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE A  
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID  
TO UPPER 60S.  
 
AS THE INITIAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS, ANOTHER STRONGER HIGH  
WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM EASTERN CANADA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS  
HAVE THIS STRONG HIGH SUPPRESSING ANY MOISTURE FROM IAN TO OUR  
SOUTH, THOUGH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY SETUP JUST TO  
OUR SOUTH UNDER THIS PATTERN ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN  
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND DRY CANADIAN AIR FROM THE  
NORTH. TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN THROW ALL KINDS OF WRENCHES INTO THE  
MODELS, SO WE AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS YET WITH REGARDS TO  
ANY IMPACTS FROM IAN, BUT AT THIS POINT WE DO NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT  
IMPACTS FROM IAN OTHER THAN SOME NORTHERN PERIPHERY CLOUD COVER IN  
OUR CURRENT FORECASTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IAN, PLEASE SEE THE  
OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE  
CENTER.  
 
WITH THE SECOND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST  
TUESDAY, HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST GOING INTO  
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND SOME CRISP  
NIGHTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...CYCLONIC WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
PREVAILS ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, EXCEPT MVFR  
CIGS AT SLK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THINKING CIGS  
WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 02-04Z WITH POTENTIAL IFR  
CIGS DEVELOPING AT MPV/EFK AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 12Z  
WEDS. AT SLK, THINKING THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL  
HELP TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF IFR CIGS BY 02Z WITH PREVAILING  
CONDITIONS BY 06Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL WEDS MORNING. THE  
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG  
PRODUCTION AT MOST SITES WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD POSSIBLE AT  
MPV TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A MIX OF MVFR/VFR DEVELOPS BY 15Z  
AT MOST SITES WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.  
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
CLEANING AND REFURBISHMENT OF THE KMPV STATION WILL REQUIRE THE  
SYSTEM TO BE TURNED OFF DURING THE PROCESS, BUT SERVICE WILL  
RETURN IN BETWEEN MAINTENANCE SESSIONS.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...STORM  
NEAR TERM...TABER/STORM  
SHORT TERM...DUELL  
LONG TERM...DUELL  
AVIATION...TABER  
EQUIPMENT...BOYD  
 
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