455  
FXUS61 KBTV 152328  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
728 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARMER AND MUGGIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION  
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF  
BARRY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK, AND ANTICIPATE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 704 PM EDT MONDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY AND PA TRANSLATES EWD  
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL  
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF THE DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE THIS  
EVENING, LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SIMILARLY LARGE TO LAST NIGHT, AND SHOULD  
KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LOCALIZED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO  
MID 50S, IT'LL BE THE LAST COMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR AWHILE; LOWS  
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW WITH A WARM  
FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF  
MOISTURE; PWATS WILL SURGE TO 1.5-2 INCHES BY THE EVENING. THE BEST  
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW/UPPER  
TROUGH, BUT EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND  
INCREASING INSTABILITY. AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL  
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN  
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
 
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE  
REMNANTS OF BARRY DRAW NEAR. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID AND  
UPPER 60S, MAKING FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID  
60S TO AROUND 70.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 440 PM EDT MONDAY...INCREASING HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
A COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA AS WELL AS COPIOUS MOISTURE  
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN  
SHOWERS, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.  
PWATS WILL BE PUSHING TWO INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL ALSO  
BE PRESENT, INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.  
TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S,  
DAMPENED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE SPREADING  
ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION  
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO KEEP MOST OF  
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE'S STILL POTENTIAL  
FOR US TO GET IN ON THAT DEEP MOISTURE. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING  
WED NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THREAT  
FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND CONDITIONS  
QUITE MUGGY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 440 PM EDT MONDAY...A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND IS  
EXPECTED BEGINNING THU. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS  
ESPECIALLY THU AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE  
AREA AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH. RIGHT NOW LOOKS  
LIKE FRI AND SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD AND WILL NEED  
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED HEADLINES TOWARDS THE END  
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION  
EARLY SATURDAY WITHOUT A LOT OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES  
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THIS AIRMASS OUT.  
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE  
THERE'S ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR SOME STORMS TO  
DEVELOP IF WE CAN DEVELOP SOME SURFACE FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER  
DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA  
TONIGHT, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM  
THE WEST AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF AN APPRAOCHING WARM FRONT. THE WARM  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z, RESULTING IN CLOUDS  
LOWERING TO 4000 TO 8000 FT AND SOME VICINITY SHOWERS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY  
AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,  
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE  
SHRA.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE  
TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.  
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE TSRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS  
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HASTINGS  
SHORT TERM...NEILES  
LONG TERM...NEILES  
AVIATION...DUELL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab NY Page Main Text Page