086
FXUS61 KBTV 230707
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 306 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 306 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. MOSTLY DRY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MID-WEEK. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS INCREASINGLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN IS FAVORED FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 306 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT MOST SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. HOWEVER, TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL ALLOW NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THE
CREST OF THE RIDGE AXIS, THE SHIFT IN AIR MASSES WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING, AS SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AHEAD
OF THE BASE OF AN INCOMING TROUGH AND MARGINAL DAYTIME
INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 300-500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SOME ACTIVITY
ALONG THE INCOMING BOUNDARY. A BROAD, DISORGANIZED SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOMEWHAT GREATER
INSTABILITY, AND THERE WILL BE SOME SHEAR, THEREFORE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL GOING FORWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WHILE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE TROUGH POSITION TO OUR
EAST AND LIMITED AMPLIFICATION SUPPORTS PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THE CONSENSUS IDEA RIGHT NOW SHOWS HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WITH PWAT
NEAR OR UNDER 1", CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL MEDIAN, HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
AS HEAT AND MOISTURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS AND
ADVECTS INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW, EACH DAY LOOKS
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE MOVING FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
80S ON MONDAY. THERE IS TYPICAL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE,
WITH SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES RELATED TO THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST; IF THE RIDGE IS FARTHER EAST AND/OR MORE
AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY IN PARTICULAR, THAT COULD BE A HOTTER DAY
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. LOOKING AHEAD JUST BEYOND
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER IN
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THIS COULD MARK THE START OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEAT POTENTIAL (WHEN PROBABILITIES OF A MAJOR HEAT
RISK RAMP UP IN MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL COVERAGE). HOWEVER, WE'LL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE CHARACTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS OR SO AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. LIGHT
WIND FIELDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS, IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT IN PARTICULAR, LEAD TO HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT MPV AND RUT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD NOW THROUGH
12-14Z. EXPECT MORE OF AN MVFR VERSUS VFR SITUATION AT OTHER
TERMINALS AS CEILINGS SHOULD TREND LOWER BEFORE SCATTERING
GRADUALLY AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT BR AND SOME
IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT MSS WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING COULD
PROMOTE OCCASIONAL FOG/VERY LOW CEILINGS AT THE AIRPORT.
CALM/TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AFTER 12Z OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. DEFINITE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MVFR. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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