395
FXUS61 KBTV 191120
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 141 AM EST THURSDAY...
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINTON AND ESSEX COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK, AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS IN VERMONT
FOR 10 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 141 AM EST THURSDAY...
1. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
SATURDAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK
FOCUSING ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. SNOW WILL BE INITIALLY WET AND THEN TREND
DRIER. SO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.
2. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 141 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.
A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMBLING UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL COINCIDE WITH A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL OVERSPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DECAYING ZONAL JET STREAK
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INCOMING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST JET INTO NEW YORK STATE WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INTERVAL OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES AROUND 3000 FT AGL ARE FLIRTING
RIGHT AT 0 C, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ARE
LIKELY TO CREEP INTO THE MID 30S. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TYPES, OR RAIN IN WARMER VALLEYS, IS POSSIBLE BEFORE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HELP US TRANSITION TO
ENTIRELY SNOW. ANY ICE WILL BE MARGINAL. THE WET SNOW MAY BE A
CONCERN FOR UTILITIES, BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BAND SEEMS
LIKE IT COULD TAKE PLACE AFTER THE WARM NOSE HAS BEGUN TO DECAY.
SO WILL NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WITH
INITIALLY WET SNOW, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORTLIVED.
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE,
THOUGH. BASED ON THE LATEST HREF OUTPUT, THE 1"/HR
PROBABILITIES BEGIN ABOUT 18-19Z (1-2PM) AND MAX OUT ABOUT
21Z-00Z (4-7PM), MAINLY COVERING FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE
AND MUCH OF VERMONT. BY 03Z (10PM), BETTER FORCING SHIFTS AWAY.
A BACKDOOR FRONT TIED TO AN UPPER LOW IN FAR NORTHEASTERN
CANADA WILL CAUSE OUR SYSTEM TO GET ABSORBED, AND DRY AIR WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO INFILTRATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. WE MAY ALSO HAVE
SOME SQUEEZE PLAY FROM THE SOUTH IN TERMS OF A DRY SLOT. SO ONCE
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY
DECLINE, AND THEN BY SATURDAY MORNING, SNOWFALL WILL BECOME VERY
LIGHT. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, A WIDESPREAD 3-7" APPEARS
LIKELY. EASTERN FACING FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
ADIRONDACKS APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY TO OBSERVE AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 7-9", AND SO THE WINTER STORM WATCH HIGHLIGHTS THOSE
REGIONS. FORECAST SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE
IS RATHER LARGE, AND THERE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES, POSSIBLE MIX, AND THE FACT MOST SNOW
WILL BE TIED TO THE INITIAL WARM FRONT. STAY TUNED AS WE MAKE
UPDATES LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MOST
NIGHTS. A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IT
LOOKS TO TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE MINOR. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THIS FEATURE, ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TOWARDS LOWER VFR AND MVFR AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY, ALTHOUGH SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, DEFINITE FZRA, CHANCE RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE KMPV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE,
BUT AMENDMENTS TO THOSE FORECASTS WILL BE SUSPENDED.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR VTZ018>020.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...HAYNES/KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page