432  
FXUS61 KBTV 192034  
AFDBTV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
334 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL SUPPLY ANOTHER  
DRY BUT SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION  
COMMENCES WEDNESDAY MORNING. A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WILL  
BRING DEVELOPING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ENDING AS A WINTRY  
MIX EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS WILL RANGE UP  
TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS  
NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET  
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.  
PRECIPITATION WILL END THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DRIER WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM  
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 318 PM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT,  
ALLOWING FOR ONE LAST CRISP NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND  
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING  
CONDITIONS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE  
NIGHT UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER  
NORTHERN NEW YORK WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, WHICH WILL  
COUNTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM  
PLUMMETING QUITE AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING  
AT LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE -10 TO +5 RANGE...WARMEST IN  
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND COLDEST IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT CLOSER  
TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY,  
PROMPTING WINDS TO TURN SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION  
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY,  
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE  
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING (INCLUDING DRY FOR  
THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMMUTE) BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER  
WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 318 PM EST TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH  
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA  
STARTING AS LIGHT SNOW IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND A  
WEAK WARM NOSE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY 850  
MB JET PUSHING IN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO  
PROGRESSIVELY CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX (PRIMARILY SLEET)  
THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING  
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TRANSITION TIME, HOWEVER WITH  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT ONLY PROGGED  
BETWEEN 0 AND 2 DEGREES C, THE OVERALL FREEZING RAIN THREAT  
LOOKS LOW. AS FAR AS TIMING OF THE SNOW TO WINTRY MIX  
TRANSITION GOES, NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SWITCH OVER BETWEEN  
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE VERMONT WILL HOLD  
ONTO PRIMARILY SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS, THERE  
WILL BE A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF SNOW/SLEET TOTALS FOR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GENERALLY 1-3" EXPECTED  
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND 2-4" EXPECTED  
ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY  
MORNING, AND ANY RESIDUAL SNOW OR SLEET WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN.  
A RAPIDLY ADVANCING DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY END MOST OF THE RAIN  
THROUGH THE MORNING, AND A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL BE OBSERVED  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WESTERN  
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS, WHICH  
COULD HOLD ON TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS  
THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, AND WINDS WILL  
BECOME GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE  
DAYTIME HOURS, PARTICULARLY AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS. WESTERLY  
WINDS 15-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS TO  
UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 318 PM EST TUESDAY...FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY DRY WITH  
SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW.  
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULDN'T ACCOUNT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
ACCUMULATION AND WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY EVENING AS  
THE THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO  
START THE WEEKEND AS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY  
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 30S  
SATURDAY.  
 
THE QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS A SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A  
VERTICALLY PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE LEE EDGE  
OF THE ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES  
AND WILL BRING CONTINUOUS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. WARM ADVECTION SNOW  
WILL START BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO POTENTIALLY MIXED PRECIP AND THEN  
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WITH THIS  
MORNING'S GLOBAL SUITE THERE IS SOME SUBTLE HINT OF A COASTAL TROUGH  
DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR NEAR  
FREEZING EAST OF THE GREENS WHICH WOULD COMPLICATE THE PRECIP TYPE  
SIGNIFICANTLY.  
 
A DRY SLOT THEN PROVIDES A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY  
EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH THROUGH TRANSITIONING  
EVERYTHING BACK TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND  
QUIET WEATHER RETURN FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.  
 
BASED ON THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE I'M NOT REAL BULLISH ON ANY  
FLOODING THREATS OUTSIDE ANY RIVER LOCATIONS THAT ARE NOT CURRENTLY  
JAMMED WITH NO CHANNELS. 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR TO BE ON THE  
ORDER OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ABSENT QUITE A BIT  
WARMER TEMPERATURES I DONT SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT RUNNING OFF.  
THUS THERE SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH WATER ADDED TO THE BASINS TO LIFT AND  
BREAK ICE. THAT SAID, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES AND  
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY HAVE AN ICE JAM IN  
PLACE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF  
SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION SOME MVFR  
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AT SLK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE N-NW 7-10KTS  
TODAY AND AT TIMES GUSTY EAST OF THE GREENS, BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE INTO SLK WHICH WILL LEAD TO A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF SOME  
BKN/OVC 1500 FOOT CEILINGS BETWEEN 03-08Z THIS EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE.  
DEFINITE SN, DEFINITE PL, DEFINITE FZRA.  
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE  
FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE SHSN.  
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIKELY RA, LIKELY FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN,  
SLIGHT CHANCE PL.  
SUNDAY: MVFR. DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE FZRA.  
 

 
   
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RSD  
NEAR TERM...RSD  
SHORT TERM...RSD  
LONG TERM...DEAL  
AVIATION...DEAL  
 
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