126
FXUS61 KBTV 291411
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1011 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WELL
INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1010 AM EDT MONDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD TRACK
THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME PASSING SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY UNDER
THESE CLEAR SKIES BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE A GREAT MEMORIAL DAY!
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRNT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS
MORNING WITH MINIMAL FAN FAIR, OTHER THAN A FEW MID LVL CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS
RANGE FROM 15C NEK TO 18C SLV, SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. DID NOTE IN SOUNDINGS A VERY DRY
LAYER NEAR 850MB OF DWPTS AROUND -20C, WITH SOME OF THIS DRY AIR
NEAR 925MB MIXING TOWARD THE SFC AGAIN TODAY. THIS WL RESULT IN
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH'S AGAIN TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE 17% TO
25% RANGE. TONIGHT, GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT
A LARGE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE L/M
30S NEK/SLK TO LOWER 50S. GIVEN SHARP AND SHALLOW THERMAL
INVERSION WARMEST VALLEYS WL BE WIDER VALLEYS AND MIDSLOPE
LOCATIONS. TUESDAY MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AGAIN WITH DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S. HAVE UTILIZED THE 10TH
PERCENTILE NBM DWPTS AND ADJUSTED DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO GET MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 26% RANGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH BY MID MORNING, WHICH COULD ADVECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER BL
MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF OUR REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 324 AM EDT MONDAY...DEEP RIDGING THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE REMAINS ATOP THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND NIL POPS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
PAST WEEK, A SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
IS EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S BEFORE REBOUNDING NICELY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 324 AM EDT MONDAY...THEREAFTER, STRONG RIDGING PERSISTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. A FEW RECORDS MAY BE THREATENED ON THURSDAY WHEN MEAN
925 HPA THERMAL VALUES PEAK, WITH A FEW VALLEY SPOTS LIKELY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL THEN DROP
SOUTH/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. DESPITE A BRIEF
POOLING OF PWATS TO AROUND 1.5", A GENERAL LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY, RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LOW BULK SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BEST, SO 20/30% POPS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT WITH BETTER FOCUS ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHT WARMING THEN OCCURS BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO POSSIBLY AFFECT
THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR PREVAILS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 4 TO
8 KNOTS WL CONTINUE TODAY, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AT RUT/PBG WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN WINDS
DEVELOP BEFORE A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OCCURS ON TUESDAY. INTERVALS
OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACRS OUR TAF SKIES
TODAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...CLAY/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
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