455
FXUS61 KBTV 152328
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND MUGGIER WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF
BARRY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND ANTICIPATE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 704 PM EDT MONDAY...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY AND PA TRANSLATES EWD
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DAYTIME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF THE DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE THIS
EVENING, LEAVING JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SIMILARLY LARGE TO LAST NIGHT, AND SHOULD
KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT LOCALIZED. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, IT'LL BE THE LAST COMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR AWHILE; LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE; PWATS WILL SURGE TO 1.5-2 INCHES BY THE EVENING. THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW/UPPER
TROUGH, BUT EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF BARRY DRAW NEAR. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S, MAKING FOR A VERY MUGGY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 440 PM EDT MONDAY...INCREASING HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA AS WELL AS COPIOUS MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
PWATS WILL BE PUSHING TWO INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT, INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES ON WED WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S,
DAMPENED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS OUR AREA. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO KEEP MOST OF
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE'S STILL POTENTIAL
FOR US TO GET IN ON THAT DEEP MOISTURE. SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING
WED NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND CONDITIONS
QUITE MUGGY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 440 PM EDT MONDAY...A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING THU. WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THU AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AS WELL AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH. RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE FRI AND SAT WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED HEADLINES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY WITHOUT A LOT OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THIS AIRMASS OUT.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE
THERE'S ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP IF WE CAN DEVELOP SOME SURFACE FORCING TO HELP TRIGGER
DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF AN APPRAOCHING WARM FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z, RESULTING IN CLOUDS
LOWERING TO 4000 TO 8000 FT AND SOME VICINITY SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE TSRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DUELL
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