545  
FXUS63 KARX 142303  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
603 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
AT 130 PM, SPRINKLES/ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE FOUND ACROSS  
THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LOCAL  
WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUED TO SWIRL OVER  
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT MADE  
FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN ISOLATED  
SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR DIURNAL  
HEATING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW INTO OUR AREA.  
COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS WELL WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE  
YET TO REACH THE UPPER 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY WANE  
TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO  
CRAWL EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL SATURATION IN THE SOUNDINGS  
SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER. CLOUD COVER  
LOOKS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT GIVEN EXTENSIVE STRATUS LAYER  
UPSTREAM, BUT WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME BREAKS OPEN UP BY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER  
EAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S, BUT  
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY, IN THE 40S TO NEAR  
50, AS THE CHILLY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST  
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A  
FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT  
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS  
SYSTEM, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY AND  
IN THE LOWER AND MID-40S ON TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE  
TO THE NBM'S 50TH PERCENTILE. THERE ARE EVEN INDICATIONS IN THE  
ENSEMBLES THAT THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH YET, BUT  
WITH LARGE MODEL SPREADS THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE TO DO THAT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
PESKY CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO  
ROTATE MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE AREA INCLUDING KRST/KLSE SITES INTO  
THURSDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING A BOUT WITH IFR STRATUS AT KRST  
IN THE 06-16Z TIME FRAME, SO WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS. LOOKS LIKE  
THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FINALLY AFTER 22Z THURSDAY AS  
THAT CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND 10KT.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LEE  
LONG TERM...BOYNE  
AVIATION...DAS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WI Page
The Nexlab IA Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page