295  
FXUS63 KARX 072339  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
639 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.  
 
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY. HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME STRONG STORM RISK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
> REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: SPOTTY CONVECTION SOUTH  
 
A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY RUNS NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST  
IA/SOUTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A MESO LOW IN  
THERE TOO. RIBBON OF HIGHER SFC TDS IN THAT REGION WITH MLCAPES FROM  
250-500 J/KG CURRENTLY, PROGGED IN THE RAP TO CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG.  
NOT UNSURPRISINGLY, SOME CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO POP AS A RESULT  
OF THIS MIX OF WEAKER FORCING AND INSTABILITY, AND EXPECT THAT TO  
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE  
CAMS CAPTURE THIS - BUT MIGHT BE TOO SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.  
 
> TONIGHT-TUESDAY: SHOWER/STORM CHANCES  
 
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, TIED WITH  
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC COOL FRONT, WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST  
TONIGHT...SLIPPING OVER EASTERN WI BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE  
AREAS/BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD LOSE SOME AREAL COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST TONIGHT - LOSING OUT ON THE DAYTIME  
INSTABILITY. MORE OF THE PCPN FOCUS COULD CENTER ON THE SHORTWAVE  
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AND SOUTHWARD OVER IA  
WHERE AN MCV AND BRANCH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PLAY ROLES. EXPECT  
PCPN CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, BUT COULD BE MORE  
SCATTERED IN NATURE.  
 
MOVING INTO TUE AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY BUILDS POST THE DEPARTING  
FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. A SECONDARY SFC BOUNDARY MAY BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE REMNANTS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUE TO  
PINWHEEL POST THE TROUGH AXIS. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE  
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BECOME UNCAPPED BY MID AFTERNOON, SO EVEN WEAK  
FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION.  
CAMS, HOWEVER, AREN'T THAT ENTHUSIASTIC ON THESE PROSPECTS. LACKING  
CLARITY IN THE FORCING MECHANISMS (ARE THEY THERE? WHERE?) WILL OPT  
IN WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE RAIN CHANCES - FOR NOW.  
 
> FRIDAY; HUMID WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND  
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL  
 
GEFS AND EPS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH SLIPPING A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL  
ENERGY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THU, SPINNING IT EAST/NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRI. ON ITS HEELS, ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (A BIT STRONGER) LOOKS TO DROP OUT OF WESTERN  
CANADA, MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SWINGING ACROSS  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION SAT. THE MODELS FAVOR KEEPING THESE  
FEATURE SEPARATE - BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THEM MERGING AS  
THEY SWING NORTHEAST IN SOUTHERN CANADA.  
 
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FIRST BIT OF ENERGY  
WILL PUSH PWS NORTH OF 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FROM 4 TO 4.5 KFT.  
SOUPY AND UNSTABLE. ALL THIS IS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE'S ASSOCIATED  
COOL FRONT. BOTH OF THE MODELS' SUITE OF MEMBERS PRODUCE QPF IN THE  
FRI/SAT TIME FRAME, WITH EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNTS/TIMING.  
SHAPING UP TO BE THE "MOST LIKELY" PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN.  
DEPENDING ON WHERE/WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM  
THE WEST, THE MIX OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD PROMOTE STRONGER STORMS.  
SOMETHING WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AIRMASS  
FAVORS STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGH SAT, BUT COULD ALSO BE  
CLEARING NORTH/EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A  
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS  
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO  
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE  
SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN  
MINNESOTA, NORTHEASTERN IOWA, AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, SO HAVE  
KEPT A PROB30 GROUP FOR BOTH KRST AND KLSE TO HIGHLIGHT THE  
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME RAIN AND LOWERED CEILINGS (MVFR). IN  
ADDITION, THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY  
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST  
WIND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...RIECK  
AVIATION...CECAVA  
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