834  
FXUS63 KARX 301923  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
223 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SOME LIGHT ICING CONTINUES IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES  
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THIS, AN ICE STORM WARNING  
IN TAYLOR COUNTY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN CLARK COUNTY  
CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.  
 
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM LATE  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT  
 
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 30,  
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.  
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICING MAY OCCUR IN TAYLOR  
COUNTY AND LIGHT GLAZE IN CLARK COUNTY. DUE TO THIS, KEPT THE  
ICE STORM WARNING IN TAYLOR COUNTY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY  
IN CLARK COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO  
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION  
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BAND HAS ICE ALOFT, SO AS  
TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE  
RAIN/SNOW LINE IS CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 35 AND IT WILL MOVE  
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST  
HREF CONTINUES TO HAVE GENERALLY UP TO 1 INCH SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 90 AND GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THIS  
INTERSTATE. THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 3  
INCHES (UP TO A 10% PROBABILITY) NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.  
 
WITH THERE STILL BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 800 MB AND A  
LOSS OF ICE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS DEFORMATION BAND, THERE  
COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN  
20%) REMAINS LOW THAT THIS COULD TAKE PLACE.  
 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
 
THE 30/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIKE THE PAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THIS  
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY OR MORE EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
THE GEFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF ECE.  
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR  
WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND A  
WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE 10TH PERCENTILES ARE  
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW. MEANWHILE, THE 90TH  
PERCENTILES ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR SNOW.  
 
FURTHER SOUTH, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH WILL  
THE WARM SECTOR WILL GET. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW  
OCCLUDING AND WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR. IF THE AREA CAN GET INTO  
THE WARM SECTOR, THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY (POTENTIALLY UP  
TO 1000 J/KG) AND SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR FAR  
SOUTH AND A MARGINAL RISK UP TO INTERSTATE 90.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
THROUGH LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK  
FROM ENE TO NW THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY, INVERSION  
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE, ALLOWING MORE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN  
TO THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW  
AS WELL, AS PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE  
EVENING PROGRESSES.  
 
MEANWHILE, IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER  
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY  
MORNING. WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING, MODEL  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE (30 TO 40%) FOR A MVFR  
STRATOCUMULUS CEILING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TAFS AND FORECAST ARE LEANING INTO THIS  
CEILING SCATTERING OUT, BUT WILL ASSESS WITH FUTURE UPDATES.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BOYNE  
AVIATION...JAW  
 
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