307
FXUS63 KARX 111929
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WEATHER BECOMES QUIETER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
WILL TRANSITION EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. OUT
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STRONG SOUTHERLY 925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW/FRONT TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DECENT 0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF OVER 40 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...SURFACE/MIX LAYER INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND MAY ONLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE BUILDS TO AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR/SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA GRANT/CLAYTON COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS BECOMING IS LOW...DUE TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND SURFACE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF
ANY STORM BECAME SEVERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...THE
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
NEXT CONCERN IS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. DECENT FORCING/VERTICAL MOTION WITH
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO PLUS 7 TO 13
DEGREES CELSIUS BY 18Z SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH BELOW NORMAL...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS CONTINUES THE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PERIODIC CHANCES OF CONVECTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURE TRENDS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S
AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE MAY PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH WEST WINDS AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
GIVEN RECENT RAIN OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN PER LATEST COOPERATIVE OBSERVER
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATES. PLUS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND OR OVER 2 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH OVER FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10PM THIS EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A RISK OF
FLOODING ALONG CREEKS/STREAMS/RIVERS AND LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017-029-034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ096.
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ010-011-029-
030.
DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DTJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page