586
FXUS63 KARX 202041
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
241 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ON FRIDAY. WEST OF THE MISS RIVER IN IOWA AND MINNESOTA, WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL PROBABLY CAUSE DRIFTING ISSUES
ACROSS EAST-WEST ROADS. NEGATIVES: THE SNOW PACK WILL BE 4 DAYS
OLD WITH FULL SUNSHINE CAUSING SOME CRYSTAL TYPE CHANGE DURING
THAT TIME AND 2) A WETTER SNOW FELL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING TO ALLOW A BIT MORE RE-FREEZING OF THAT SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK, STILL THINK THESE
WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME DRIFTING ISSUES AND POSSIBLY MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
WHILE IT WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY (AROUND 30F), WIND CHILLS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL 10F COLDER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
BIG PICTURE IS A WARMER WEEKEND (35-43F!) WITH GOOD TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALSO MELT OFF A BIT OF
SNOW PACK - GOOD FOR FUTURE FLOODING RISK REDUCTION.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT /POSSIBLY INTO TUE AND WED/ CONTINUES TO
BE MONITORED FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
CENTRAL PLAINS STORM. 20.06Z GEFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST PREDICTABILITY
IS RATHER LOW WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF SPREAD /1-10" OF SNOW AT
KLSE/,AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS 20.06Z IS DRY AT KLSE, VERY MUCH
LIKE THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 20.12Z GFS RUN IS NOW
SHOWING 2-3 DAYS OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SEEMS THE
QUESTION IS NOT DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM, NOR INFLOWING MOISTURE
/150-200% NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER/, BUT TRACK. MUCH HAS TO BE
SORTED OUT, INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TYPE WHICH COULD BE A MIX/RAIN
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. SO, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW RIGHT NOW IN THE
OUTCOME AND THUS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK IN THE
REGION...JUST FOLLOW THE FORECAST AS WE APPROACH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS WILL BE AROUND
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE KRST AIRFIELD CREWS...BE AWARE THAT WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY CAUSE DRIFTING SNOW ONTO THE RUNWAYS
AFTER ABOUT 10 AM. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page