830
FXUS63 KARX 121101
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
501 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
30S TO UPPER 40S.
- POTENTIAL (30-60% CHANCE) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
NEAR AND NORTH OF HWY 29 IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
SWITCHING TO RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME SLICK SPOTS PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING.
- SNOW LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE) THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-80%
CHANCE) FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER OF ACCUMULATIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TODAY - TUESDAY: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI TONIGHT
GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LOCAL AREA IN WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A SYSTEM SITUATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE ALBERTA AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. AS FOR TODAY, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR TODAY.
AS A RESULT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RESPONDS ACCORDINGLY FOR
TEMPERATURES AS PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (50-90% CHANCE) FOR
TEMPERATURES TO TOP THE 40 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST SOUTH OF I-94.
ADDITIONALLY, WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND AN ABSENCE OF SATURATION
WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY, LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY AS
FAR AS JANUARY IS CONCERNED.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNPLEASANT AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION PUSHING INTO IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OVERALL THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT
ISNT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH QG CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION
BEING THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS. THAT BEING SAID, A STOUT WARM NOSE AT
KMDZ IN THE RAP/HRRR OVERNIGHT LEADS TO SOME QUESTIONS ON IF A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY, THE HREF HAS
MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-70% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST A TRACE OF
ICE NORTH OF HWY 29. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WOULD MANIFEST
THOUGH GIVEN THAT VERY LOW-LEVEL SATURATION IN THE HRRR/RAP SEEMS
QUESTIONABLE AS THIS DRY LAYER UNDER 900MB IS QUITE PRONOUNCED WHICH
MAY LIMIT DROP SIZE OR EVEN EVAPORATE ANY PRECIP ALTOGETHER. EITHER
WAY, THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES UNIFORMLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
DAYBREAK SO ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN
RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK NORTH OF I-94. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40-80%) FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF I-94 THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN THE RECENT 12.00Z HREF WITH QUICKLY LOWERING PROBABILITIES
SOUTH OF I-94 MEASURABLE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, OUTSIDE OF ANY
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK NORTH OF HWY 29
IN WISCONSIN, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
40S SOUTH OF I-94.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY: SEASONABLE, ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, SHARP COLD ADVECTION WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE FROM TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO TREND
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. WOULD EXPECT SOME FLURRIES TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
GIVEN THAT LATEST TRENDS DO NOT HAVE STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, THINKING THAT RATES
WITH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE PASSING
COLD FRONT AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WOULD EXCEPT SOME
BREEZIER CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EC
ENSEMBLE HAVING MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30-70% CHANCE) FOR WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH SOUTH OF I-94 DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING MOVES INTO THE AREA
AFTER LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A MORE
PROFOUND SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. OVERALL THERE REMAINS SOME DISTINCT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ON BOTH THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE BETWEEN THE EC/GFS/CANADIAN, HOWEVER ALL
SOLUTIONS PUSH THIS WAVE THROUGH THE AREA IN SOME CAPACITY. FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE QG CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT WITH THIS WAVE WITH A WEAK 600-
700MB FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE 12.00Z GFS THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, AVAILABLE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION WITH
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING FAIRLY LIMITED IN THE 12.00Z GFS
ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS BEING ON THE LOW-END AT AROUND 0.25"
TO 0.35". AS A RESULT, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE) HAS LOW PROBABILITIES (UNDER 20%) FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID,
PROBABILITIES WITH THE EC-AIFS ENSEMBLE HAS VIRTUALLY EVERY MEMBER
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-80%) FOR AN INCH
OF SNOW OR GREATER, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SO WOULD SAY AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THUS HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY NBM
PRECIPITATION CHANCE MENTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
PROBABILITY FOR MORE IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL IS LOWER AT THIS POINT.
THIS WEEKEND: TRENDING COLDER
BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN FURTHER
AS COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSED SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL LIKELY TUMBLE BELOW NORMAL
FOR BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR HIGHS
IN THE NBM RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY. EXACTLY HOW COLD WE GET ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
CONTINGENT ON WHERE THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED 850MB
TEMPERATURES ENDS UP WHICH HAS NOTABLE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND EC. IN THE COLDER, GEFS SCENARIO WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
AROUND -27C TO -29C THIS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW ZERO AREA WIDE AS SHOWN IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE NBM AS OPPOSED
TO A WARMER SCENARIO IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE NBM WHICH KEEPS LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. SO CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN
STORE FOR A REMINDER THAT IT IS JANUARY BUT EXACTLY HOW COLD WE WILL
GET REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
FEW TO BKN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LLWS TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER 09Z AS THE
RAP/HRRR INCREASES WINDS AT 2KFT TO AROUND 50-55 KTS, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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