700  
FXUS63 KARX 301810  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
110 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING.  
 
- SMOKE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSISTS INTO  
FRIDAY.  
 
- UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ON WHEN RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
THIS AFTERNOON  
 
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST  
AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM, A DEFORMATION  
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THROUGH 4 PM,  
THERE MAY BE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS  
IN THIS BAND.  
 
TONIGHT  
 
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO  
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS, DRIER AIR (DEW  
POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S) WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION. IN  
ADDITION, SMOKE (AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO  
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR  
RANGE AND REACH CONCENTRATIONS WHICH WILL CAUSE HEALTH ISSUES  
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS, SUCH AS PEOPLE WITH LUNG DISEASE  
(INCLUDING ASTHMA), HEART DISEASE, AND CHILDREN AND OLDER  
ADULTS, SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OR HEAVY EXERTION.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT  
 
ON THURSDAY, A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH THEN PERSISTS  
ACROSS THE THESE AREAS INTO SATURDAY, AND THEN THEN GRADUALLY  
SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BEGINNING ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER  
EASTERN CANADA (PRODUCING MORE ZONAL WINDS), THE SMOKE WILL  
LIKELY HELP TO KEEP THE SMOKE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WHILE THE  
SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE IS  
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW LONG THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN  
CONCENTRATED.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,  
AND THEN RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
 
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS  
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW NORTHERN  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. LIKE  
YESTERDAY, THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN  
EXACTLY THAT WILL OCCUR. THE OPERATIONAL GFS STARTS TO BRING  
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE SHOWS THIS NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER  
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE  
MID-70S TO AROUND 80 AND THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID-80S  
FOR EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
MAIN AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION EMBEDDED WITH SCATTERED  
STORMS AT 30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE SEEN AFFECTING SMALLER AIRPORTS  
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH MVFR  
VISIBILITIES & CEILINGS. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF IMPACTS TO REMAIN  
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TODAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERN EXTENT  
POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR NORTH AS KLSE & KRST TAF SITES.  
 
LIMITED EXTENT OF IFR/LIFR FOG FROM SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA WHERE SKIES MANAGED TO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAREST  
AWOS TO KRST OBSERVING 002 CEILINGS AT TAF ISSUANCE RESULTED IN  
ADDING TEMPO 002 TO KRST TAF SITE.  
 
STORM CHANCES EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BESIDES POTENTIAL RIVER  
VALLEY FOG, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BOYNE  
AVIATION...CECAVA  
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