620
FXUS63 KARX 300533
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE DAY TO GO IN OUR STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER BEFORE
WARMER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN ON SATURDAY. HIGHS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK RECOVER INTO THE 20S WITH LOW TO MID 30S BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90%) THAT WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THROUGH AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT
WITH THERE BEING ONLY A 20-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1". NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TODAY - SATURDAY: COLD, SOME FLURRIES LATER TODAY?
A 1030-MB SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BUT ONE ARM OF A BOOMERANG
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC VORT LOBE IS PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS AMPLE
KINEMATIC DCVA FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THE CURRENT BAND
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/FLURRIES ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST THIS RIDGE AND
THE ALREADY SHALLOW AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER WASHES OUT
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
SO THE QUESTION IS, HOW LONG WILL THE FLURRIES LAST AS THIS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH? A REVIEW OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
PAINTS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT PICTURE OF THE LIGHT FLURRIES
SLIDING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FLURRY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT THE
UPSTREAM SNOW COVERAGE IS BROADER THAN EARLIER FORECAST, GIVING
CREDENCE TO THE FLURRIES LASTING FOR A LONGER PERIOD AS THEY
DROP SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST SHAKES
OUT, IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
NOT BOTTOM OUT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT. THE REGION SITS ON THE
CAA SIDE OF A STRENGTHENING 1045-MB HIGH THAT BUILDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
AIRMASS DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY AS THIS HIGH SLIDES THROUGH,
THOUGH WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY WITH A DIRECT FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN PLACE. ON SATURDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO FINALLY SET IN.
TEMPERATURES WON'T RISE APPRECIABLY FOR SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS PASSES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY, BUT THIS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS THE STAGE FOR A WARMER STRETCH
NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEK: WARMING UP, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW?
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
TO END THIS WEEK WITH A NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE CRESTING THE
RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CASCADING DOWN ITS EASTERN FLANK SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE NARROW WAA WING OF THE ATTENDANT LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE WITHIN A REGION OF 280-290K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF SNOW THAT SHIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE SET ON
THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING SNOW AND FOR THE MOST PART AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE AROUND OR UNDER 1". A FEW MEMBERS HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FGEN SIGNAL WITH THIS BAND AND PRODUCE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2"
RANGE, BUT THE BULK OF THE SCENARIOS (60-80%) HAVE LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW CONSISTENCY SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO HERALDS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND SHOVING THE ARCTIC
AIR BACK NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THE OVERALL
TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
ENSEMBLES IS A STEADY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S BY WEEK'S END.
OUR NEXT SHOT OF SNOW COMES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
HINGES ON HOW QUICKLY A CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ORGANIZE.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, ABOUT 50-70% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SOME
SORT OF SNOW BAND IN THE REGION, BUT PLACEMENT AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES, COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW, MAKES IT
TOUGH TO LAY OUT ANY MORE SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS WITHIN THIS BAND ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 3500
AND 6000FT. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE MID
MORNING AND SCATTER OUT LEAVING BEHIND SOME CLOUDS AROUND 5000FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE AROUND A
40 TO 60% CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
RESULTING IN CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500FT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...CECAVA
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