836
FXUS63 KARX 301735
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1135 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AND BREEZY WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. CONTINUED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEW WEEK.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN (30-60%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
LINGERING SNOWFALL AND BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING
AS THIS WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM CONTINUES TRUDGING EASTWARD
TODAY, CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WHICH WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY
MID MORNING. BREEZY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH LINGER AS WELL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE CONTINUATION OF THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PROLONG THE ALREADY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. BECAUSE OF THIS, OPTED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE CONTINUING SUB-WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS.
SNOWFALL AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM
WILL BE THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK, GENERALLY 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 20S AND LOWS SIT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, REINFORCING THE ALREADY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. AS SUCH, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE BUNCH. THE 30.01Z NBM INDICATES
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS, A WHOPPING -20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY, A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED, LEADING TO AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD. THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO
VERY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES, NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA
(-25F) WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHICH THE 30.00Z LREF
INDICATES 10-30% PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL MONDAY
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS TROPOSPHERIC DEEP TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE UNITED
STATES, SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PROPAGATES
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE 30.00Z LREF MEMBERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO OUR SOUTH
WHERE A RIBBON OF 850HPA MOISTURE SITUATED UNDER A 500HPA JET
STREAK AND STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PROVIDES A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THESE FEATURES DO NUDGE UP INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS SLIGHTLY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN A BELOW FREEZING ATMOSPHERE.
THE 30.00Z LREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN, CURRENTLY
SITTING AT 30-60%, HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL IOWA
TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF THE 30.00Z LREF SUGGESTING AROUND 1 INCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
SPORADIC MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRATUS DECK BREAKS UP DUE TO MIXING. MVFR
CONDITIOSN WILL RETURN TO OUR NORTHWEST AS A MORE EXTENSIVE
STRATUS DECK SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL MN. SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW (20-25%) FOR A MENTION WITH THIS UPDATE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ087-088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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