595
FXUS63 KARX 270559
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE AREA.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
- THE RISK FOR STORMS--POSSIBLY SEVERE--BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AND TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND
TRACKS OF THE PREVIOUS STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
TODAY
A 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL CLIMB UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH WEAK 3-6 KM
SHEAR, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. AS THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
THIS WILL LIKELY GREATLY REDUCE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 850 AND 600 MB. IN
ADDITION AS THIS LAYER WARMS, HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED AS IT
MELTS ON ITS WAY TO THE GROUND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 80S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND
BE MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
MONDAY
AS THE WESTERN US TROUGH DIGS, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 22 TO 24C ON MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2
TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID-90S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S,
HEAT INDICES WOULD RANGE FROM THE 100 TO 110. THIS COULD RESULT IN
THE NECESSITY FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING TO BE ISSUED.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING
OUT OF THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH STRONG TO VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, MULTIPLE MCSS COULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER COULD POTENTIALLY
OCCUR, BUT THIS WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING AND THE 0-
3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 ON TUESDAY AND RANGE FROM
95 TO 105 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND UPON THE CONVECTION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE ARE PLANNING ON ISSUING AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
VALLEY FOG/STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 7 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE THIS RETURN, ESPECIALLY
TO THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AROUND OVS. FOR LSE, INCREASE IN
WINDS A BIT OFF THE SURFACE SUGGEST ISSUES WILL COME IN THE
FORM OF STRATUS. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AN IFR CEILING AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP A SCT MENTION.
MOVING AHEAD, POTENTIAL TS ARRIVING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
LATE CONTINUES TO TREND LATER THAN 06Z SUNDAY, IF IT ARRIVES AT
ALL, SO HAVE KEPT RST THUNDER-FREE WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMER THAN
NORMAL, THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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