295
FXUS63 KARX 310551
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS GIVE WAY TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S.
- LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
EVENING BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1". HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST-
CENTRAL WI NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
REST OF TODAY - SATURDAY: COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WE ARE STUCK IN THIS PERSISTENTLY COLD
AIRMASS AS AND UPPER-LEVEL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
ALLOWING FOR UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, FLOW WILL TURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AT
THE SURFACE AND USHER IN SOME "WARMER" TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH
THE MEDIAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE
NBM. OVERALL, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE, WOULD EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WOULD EXPECT SATURDAY MORNING TO BE ONE
LAST COLD MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO AREAWIDE DUE TO THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALMER WINDS.
SUNDAY: LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
INITIALLY, WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL SHAPE UP A NARROW BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS THIS WARM ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE 30.12Z
NAM HAS A FAIRLY RESPECTABLE FRONTOGENETIC REGION THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. WHILE THIS PASSES
THROUGH ANY LOCATION RATHER QUICKLY, WOULD EXPECT THAT HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE AT PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
BEHIND THIS FRONTOGENETIC REGION, WEAKER QG-CONVERGENCE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SNOWFALL RATES ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING.
AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED, WITH THIS FRONTOGENETIC
SIGNAL POPPING UP, PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED (40-90% CHANCE) IN
THE NBM FOR AN INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE QG FORCING APPEARS TO LINGERS
FOR A LONGER DURATION THE FURTHER WEST YOU GET. ADDITIONALLY,
PROBABILITIES ARE RESPECTABLE (30-60%) IN THE NBM FOR 2 INCHES OR
GREATER NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-90. OVERALL, SLRS
WOULD SEEM TO BE AROUND 15:1 GIVEN SOME SATURATION IN THE DGZ
WHERE THE FORCING IS PRESENT INITIALLY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
THERMAL PROFILE IN THE NAM UNDERNEATH 700MB BEING ABOVE -10C.
WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO FULLY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT IN THE DGZ LATER ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE LIMITED CONSENSUS ON HOW DGZ
SATURATION WILL PLAY OUT ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE NOT OPTED TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME.
NEXT WEEK: TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL, PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES
ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO
TUESDAY, A QUICK AND WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAY BRING SOME PASSING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES IN THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN) ARE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) FOR
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT THIS POINT SO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING
OVERLY IMPACTFUL. BY THE TIME THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ROLLS
AROUND, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH
WORKS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WHICH LIKELY TURNS OUR SURFACE FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE
RANGE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE NBM RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S. FURTHERMORE, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN) HAS
RESPECTABLE PROBABILITIES (10-50% CHANCE) FOR HIGHS TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD, SO MAY BE A PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY ENDING OUR STREAK OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME EARLY INDICATIONS FOR A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES,
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS WIDE SPREAD ON THIS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO CONFIDENCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT IS IN IMMEDIATE TERM AS MVFR STRATUS DECK
IS QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS AT 31.06Z TAF ISSUANCE. PREVIOUS CONFIDENCE REMAINED
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT GIVEN CURRENT
TRAJECTORY AND OBSERVATIONS PASSING OVER KBCK, HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KLSE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NARROW EXTENT OF
INITIAL STRATUS DECK WILL LIMIT LOCAL AREAL IMPACTS, GRAZING
KONA ON THE WEST AND KOVS ON THE EAST. WIDER COVERAGE UPSTREAM
OVER KRCX WOULD IMPACT KRST SHOULD STRATUS CONTINUE PROPAGATING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MARGINAL SO HAVE KEPT FEW AT KRST TAF SITE.
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF LIFTING STRATUS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...JAR
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