975
FXUS63 KARX 210757
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
257 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
A COLD FRONT SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF CHICAGO
IN RESPONSE TO SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. SURFACE OBS SHOW A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR PEORIA, WITH A LONG-LIVED MCS
JUST UPSTREAM, RETROGRADING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI.
LOOKS LIKE A MUCH QUIETER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A CONSIDERABLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
SETTLE INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF ONGOING NORTHERLY FLOW. PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OVER OUR AREA AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING ARE
PROGRESSIVELY DROPPING BELOW 1 INCH. EXPECTING MORE SUNSHINE TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING CIRRUS SPILLING IN
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN STORE
TODAY, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A TAD WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF (NOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT)
WILL BE A TAD COOLER. GENERALLY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. THAT
WILL BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE'S RESPONSE GIVEN THE MUCH
LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT, BUT SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL WI TONIGHT WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL
BE A BIT GREATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
A WELL-DESERVED EXTENDED BREAK FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION AND STIFLING
HEAT IS ON TAP FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST. OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION, STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW PASSING RIPPLES
IN THE RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVERHEAD MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS
PRETTY DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES. AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO
TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LOOKS TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SOMETIME HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO BE PRETTY COMFORTABLE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019
CIGS: HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE BETTER PART OF TONIGHT SCATTER
OUT FOR SUNDAY - LIKELY GOING BKN AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
WX/VSBY: CONVECTION CHANCES LOOKS TO HOLD SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT-SUNDAY.
WITH SATURATED GROUND/BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAY'S RAINS, SOME
DECREASE IN HIGH CLOUD OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS, PRETTY GOOD FOG
SETUP. HOWEVER, DRIER/COOLER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH POST THE FRONT, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. TDS COULD OUTRACE THE T,
KEEPING THE FOG THREAT AT BAY. FOR NOW GOING TO HOLD WITH P6SM AND
MONITOR.
WINDS: GENERALLY LIGHT/LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE NORTH.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KURZ
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...RIECK
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