700
FXUS63 KARX 301810
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
110 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
- SMOKE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSISTS INTO
FRIDAY.
- UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ON WHEN RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. TO THE WEST OF THIS SYSTEM, A DEFORMATION
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THROUGH 4 PM,
THERE MAY BE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS
IN THIS BAND.
TONIGHT
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS, DRIER AIR (DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S) WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION, SMOKE (AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR
RANGE AND REACH CONCENTRATIONS WHICH WILL CAUSE HEALTH ISSUES
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS, SUCH AS PEOPLE WITH LUNG DISEASE
(INCLUDING ASTHMA), HEART DISEASE, AND CHILDREN AND OLDER
ADULTS, SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OR HEAVY EXERTION.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ON THURSDAY, A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH THEN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE THESE AREAS INTO SATURDAY, AND THEN THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN CANADA (PRODUCING MORE ZONAL WINDS), THE SMOKE WILL
LIKELY HELP TO KEEP THE SMOKE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WHILE THE
SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW LONG THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND THEN RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. LIKE
YESTERDAY, THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES ON WHEN
EXACTLY THAT WILL OCCUR. THE OPERATIONAL GFS STARTS TO BRING
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SHOWS THIS NOT TAKING PLACE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-70S TO AROUND 80 AND THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID-80S
FOR EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
MAIN AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION EMBEDDED WITH SCATTERED
STORMS AT 30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE SEEN AFFECTING SMALLER AIRPORTS
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES & CEILINGS. EXPECT MAIN AREA OF IMPACTS TO REMAIN
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TODAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN NORTHERN EXTENT
POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR NORTH AS KLSE & KRST TAF SITES.
LIMITED EXTENT OF IFR/LIFR FOG FROM SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHERE SKIES MANAGED TO CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAREST
AWOS TO KRST OBSERVING 002 CEILINGS AT TAF ISSUANCE RESULTED IN
ADDING TEMPO 002 TO KRST TAF SITE.
STORM CHANCES EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BESIDES POTENTIAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...CECAVA
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