714
FXUS63 KARX 111049
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
549 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN THIS MORNING WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE
AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE. SNOW ONSET
WILL BE NEAR THE END OR AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE EAST AND
SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-94 WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL
NOON. 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
- MORE SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH PROBABILITIES LOOKING LIKE 2-4"
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THE AREA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE
SNOW AND SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
- THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS THE SNOW
NORTH. PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (60-85%) FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA HAVING 25-35%
CHANCES FOR SEEING A GUST TO 55 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON AN IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT COMING.
- SPEAKING OF IMPACT, THE WEEKEND SNOW STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
THE AREA WITH VARIABILITY STILL SEEN IN THE SNOW BAND.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80%) THAT THE AREA WILL SEE A 6"+ BAND OF
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE LOCATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...FROM MINNEAPOLIS EASTWARD, TO NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHERN WI. WILL USE A BROAD BRUSH TO BEGIN MESSAGING THIS
POTENTIAL STORM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FRONTOGENETIC SNOW BAND IS SLOWLY MAKING WAY EAST INTO THE AREA.
OVER THE PAST HOURS WE HAVE SEEN THE BAND DECREASE IN INTENSITY
SOME WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY IN THE 3-7SM RANGE. ROADS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN APPEAR WET TO PARTIALLY SNOW COVERED PER THE SNOW
PLOW CAMS. THUS, THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINOR ON THE
COMMUTE FROM THIS BAND OF SNOW AND THE FORECAST TOTALS, EVEN
THOUGH LOWERED OVERNIGHT SLIGHTLY, MAY COME IN LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO BE PATCHY ON RADAR AND THE 511 WI
PAVEMENT CAMERAS SHOWING SOME WETNESS. TRAFFIC SPEEDS APPEAR TO
BE FINE AS OF 545 AM. AGAIN, MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE ON I-94 AND NORTH SHOULD CONVERT TO SNOW IN THE
NEXT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MAKE THE COMMUTE SLICK
A BAND OF SNOW, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN, WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE LACK OF A SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM
INITIALLY, THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS SNOW BAND MOVES INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-94 IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SINCE 06Z, THE KARX
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE AND
OVER THE PAST HOUR, IT HAS BEGUN TO DRIZZLE HERE AT THE NWS.
TEMP READING IS 29F BUT NO ICING IS OCCURRING. SNOW TOTALS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SNOW BAND.
CLEARING SKIES ARE FOUND BEHIND THE BAND FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WERE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.
SNOW NORTH, STRONG WINDS AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THE 10.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EITHER UPPER MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW 45 TO 60 KNOTS ON
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WHICH EXTENDS UP TO 800 MB WITH VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES (9-10 C/KM) BELOW. THE NBM WIND GUSTS LOOKED TO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE, SO DID A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NBM AND NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE TO INCREASE THEM. IT LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AND MAYBE THE CONSIDERATION OF A HIGH
WIND WATCH/WARNING. PROBABILITIES ARE STILL QUITE LOW, BUT
NOON-ZERO (20-30%) FOR 58 MPH+ IN NORTHEAST IOWA PER NBM V5.0.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD
AIR WILL GET WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
THE COLD AIR MIGHT GET AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 90 LEADING TO SNOW
OR A WINTRY MIX. WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE COLDER AIR MORE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IT IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE HIGHEST TOTALS
WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29 WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL WEEKEND SNOW STORM
ON SATURDAY, SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. STILL QUITE A
SPREAD IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH TRACKS AS FAR WEST AS THE
DRIFTLESS REGION TO AS FAR EAST AS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS A HEAVY SNOW BAND (6 INCHES OR GREATER) ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS HEAVY SNOW BAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
THE LATEST ECMWF AI PLACES THE HEAVY SNOW ALONG I-90. PICK YOUR
FLAVOR!
THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (EC/GEFS/CANADIAN) HAS A 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR GREATER LIQUID EQUIVALENT SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN, AND A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN THE EC. IF THIS 1
INCH LIQUID OCCURS, SOME PLACES COULD SEE A 10"+ SNOW. IT SEEMS
THE REGION WILL HAVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW, THE QUESTION IS
LOCATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AN IFR LIGHT SNOW BAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THERE ARE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR SNOW TO BEGIN WITH ON THE BAND
WITH POCKETS OR A PERIOD OF TIME WITH IFR VISIBILITIES.
CEILINGS ARE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW IFR.
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ017-029-034-042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
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