514
FXUS63 KARX 200539
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1139 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMPACT, BUT POTENT, BAND OF SNOW AFFECTS NORTHEAST IA
INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTH INTO CENTRAL WI. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL VERY LIKELY (60-95%) SEE 3"+ OF SNOW SOUTH/EAST OF A
CHARLES CITY TO TOMAH LINE WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST WI AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA WILL LIKELY (60-90%) SEE SOME 6" VALUES.
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS FAVORED
TO REACH 6".
- WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND
HAS INCREASED ENOUGH FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING TO BE ISSUED,
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SNOW BAND WILL SEE A SHARP CUTOFF IN
SNOW AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS OVER JUST A FEW MILES.
- POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT (<1") SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THESE LOOKING TO REBOUND
SOMEWHAT FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
BAND OF SNOW TONIGHT, HEAVY AMOUNTS LIKELY IN FAR SW WI AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NE IA
18Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND A
DISTURBANCE DEEPENING OVER THE KS/NE BORDER. AN UPPER JET IS PRESENT
FROM S CA TO MO. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER JET WITH THIS BEING LOCATED IN THE KANSAS
CITY AREA.
INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE UPPER JET ADVANCING OVER IL/IN, SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY, BECOMING CENTERED ROUGHLY IN
THE MILWAUKEE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MID LEVELS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO THE
KS/NE WAVE BECOMING AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST TO THE SE OF
OUR CWA. IN CONCERT WITH AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION, WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MN ARROWHEAD UPPER LOW
PRESENT, MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL TIGHTEN WITH SAID FRONTOGENESIS
PROVIDING A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM CENTRAL IA
INTO CENTRAL WI. WITH ROBUST FORCING FOR ASCENT ALSO BEING PROVIDED
BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW, SHOULD GET OVER 0.5" OF LIQUID UNDER
THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FRONT. WITH DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE
DGZ, PRIMARILY SNOW SHOULD RESULT WITH RATES ABOVE 1" POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES DROP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO. SNOW RATES WOULD LIKELY BE
HIGHER BUT, GIVEN MUCH OF THE COLUMN IS JUST BELOW 0C AND EPV*
FIELDS SUGGEST A STABLE ATMOSPHERE, EXPECT A WETTER SNOW CHARACTER
OVERALL AND HAVE MOVED FORECAST SNOW RATIOS TOWARD THE LOW SIDE OF
CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO 10:1. AS THE UPPER LOW OCCLUDES OVER WI, AXIS
OF MOISTURE SHOULD PIVOT FROM A SW-NE ORIENTATION TO A MORE SSW-NNE
ORIENTATION FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO INCREASED SNOW DURATION IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL WI EVEN AS SNOW RATES REDUCE AS BEST QG FORCING
SHIFTS OVER MI AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AROUND 700MB OCCURS.
BIG QUESTION FOR DAYS HAS BEEN WHERE EXACTLY THE TIGHTENING MID-
LEVEL FRONT WOULD BE LOCATED AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST.
19.12Z RUNS, INCLUDING MANY SHORT TERM MODELS, HAVE LARGELY
CONVERGED ON CENTRAL IA NORTHEAST INTO FAR SW WI WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION AT RISK FOR A FEW EXTRA HOURS WITH SNOW UNDER
THE PIVOTING BAND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL WI. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FAR SW WI (CRAWFORD/RICHLAND/GRANT) AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF IA (CLAYTON/ALLAMAKEE/FAYETTE) FOR THE MAIN BAND
AND JUNEAU/ADAMS FOR THE PIVOT REGION. THAT SAID, WITH VERY DRY AIR
LURKING AROUND 700MB AS SEEING ON LOWER LEVEL WV SATELLITE CHANNEL,
SHARP NORTHWEST CUTOFF TO SNOW AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED. THUS, WHILE
LOCATIONS FROM AROUND CHARLES CITY IA TO TOMAH WI HAVE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
WITH ONLY A FEW MILES POTENTIALLY SEPARATING MINOR (~1")
ACCUMULATION FROM CLOSE TO 5". GIVEN THIS, ANY WOBBLE IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BAND MAY LEAD TO A BIG CHANCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS.
FINALLY, THE DRY INTRUSION AROUND 700MB MAY OPEN UP A SHORT PERIOD
OF FZDZ ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW AS SOME GUIDANCE, FOR EXAMPLE THE 19.19Z RAP,
SUGGESTS ENOUGH LIFT CONTINUES IN THE DGZ (ROOTED AROUND 650MB) FOR
POTENTIAL SEEDING OF SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE IF
ICE CRYSTALS CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY INTRUSION.
LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND
PAIR OF DISTURBANCES DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THIS WEEKEND AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AFTER A WELCOME ABSENCE. THESE MAY
KICK OFF SOME FLURRIES BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR (19.13Z
NBM 95TH PERCENTILE SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IS 1" OR LESS).
TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT WEEK
THE DREADED NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND
QUASI ZONAL FLOW RETURNS. TEMPERATURES, HAVING FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, RETURN TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND IS EXPANDING NORTH TOWARDS
THE I-90 CORRIDOR. AREAS ALREADY UNDER THIS BAND OF SNOW HAVE SEEN
VISIBILITIES DROP TO BETWEEN 1 TO 3 MILES WITH SOME TRANSIENT AREAS
OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE. CIGS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LARGELY
STAY IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE, THOUGH SOME BRIEF LIFR CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. KRST WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BAND
AND SHOULD ESCAPE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.
KLSE WILL SEE MULTIPLE HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BEFORE IT
STARTS TO MOVE OUT AROUND DAY BREAK. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. GUSTS WILL REMAIN
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE
DAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ033-034.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ041-053>055-
061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ042>044.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ088-095.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ009>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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