129
FXUS63 KARX 241858
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
158 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY MID-WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-40%) MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SUNDAY - MONDAY: COOLING DOWN WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90
FOR SUNDAY IN LIEU OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE NBM KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI
WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS YET TO PUSH THROUGH WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S. AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH SOME INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) PRESENT THEMSELVES LATE SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AXIS MAY INSTIGATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS SUGGESTED IN THE CAMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI
AND SOUTHEAST MN. HOWEVER, THE RECENT HREF KEEPS MUCH OF THE
PROBABILITIES (10-40%) FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN ON SUNDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE (10-40%) A BIT MORE
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AGAIN FOR NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND
SOUTHEAST MN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLOSES IN ON
THE REGION. HOWEVER, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
DEMONSTRATE A NORTHERLY SHIFT WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
(GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) ONLY HAVING LOWER-END PROBABILITIES
(10-40%) FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 0.05" IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI
AND SOUTHEAST MN.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY: COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
POTENTIAL
BY THE TIME TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE PULLS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATER INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH
IT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS
MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES (60-90%) FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING, PROBABILITIES
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 0.1" ARE FAIRLY LOW (10-50%) DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR HOW ANY SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES MAY MANIFEST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. IN ANY CASE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR IMPACTS WITH ANY
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING
TREND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WITH THE
NBM HAVING A RESPECTABLE SHOT (30-80% CHANCE) FOR HIGHS TO RETURN
INTO THE 70S AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-
94. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS BROADER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND
ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, REALLY NOT EXPECTING THIS AIR MASS TO
CHANGE MUCH INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS SUGGEST IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FIELDS IN THE NBM. THEREFORE, IT SEEMS FAIRLY
REASONABLE TO CONCLUDE THAT WE WILL TREND WARMER THAN NORMAL
INTO HALLOWEEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS AT
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING
AND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER WILL INCREASE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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