432
FXUS63 KARX 141058
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
558 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGHS GET INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (30 TO 70%) RETURN THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WARM UP INTO THE
80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
TODAY-MID NEXT WEEK: PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL AND WARMER
A BRIEF STINT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH
MOSTLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST BEGINNING TO
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CAMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
MUCAPE. CLOUD BASES WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 5KFT TO 7KFT AS THERE IS
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AS WINDS NEAR THE LCL HEIGHT ARE BETWEEN
25 AND 35KTS AND THESE WINDS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
HOW DRY THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS AND HOW FAST THIS WAVE THROUGH, NOT
MUCH IS EXPECTED RAINFALL WISE, JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY GETTING CLOSER TO 0.1".
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC CHANCES AT SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THERE IS A GOOD PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS ALONG WITH THE A WEAK COLD FRONT, A FEW IMPULSES OF
ENERGY, AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT BRING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 40%) CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHES ITS
WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT CAN GET, WHICH WILL HAVE A ROLE IN WHAT
AREAS SEE THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
HAS THIS WARM FRONT PUSHING EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THERE IS QUITE OF BIT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (40 TO
55KTS OF 0-6KM FOR WIND SHEAR) ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS SHEAR IS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SBCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. AI NWP AND CSU-ML
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS ON
SUNDAY. THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CURRENTLY, THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS HAS THE QUICKEST EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT,
MAKING IT PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND MID
AFTERNOON, WHEREAS MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE GEFS,
CMCE, ECMWF, ALL HAVE FAVOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH A LITTLE LATER.
IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A LITTLE LATER, THEN THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA AS THERE IS A 40 TO 60 KT 500MB
JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS WELL AS 1500 TO 2500
J/KG OF MUCAPE TO BRING AROUND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE STORMS.
WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BE
SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE FORECASTS TO SEE HOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
TRENDS.
THERE IS ALSO A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.25 TO 1.75" RANGE AND THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THAT COMES UP WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW. LOOKING AT THE LREF PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 0.5" FALLING IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD, THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A FOOTPRINT FOR OVER AN INCH (10 TO 25%) FOR
BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 14.12Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE (<30%) THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA. EMBEDDED, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
(<25%) COULD ACCOMPANY HEAVIER RAINFALL.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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