625
FXUS63 KARX 151040
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE TODAY
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1/2" TO 1". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS RAINFALL.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) ON FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO
REACH 45 MPH, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
ANY ONGOING SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES BECOME MUCH COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS MAY BRING AN
END TO THE GROWING FOR SOME OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-94 (60-90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 28
DEGREES).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
TODAY: RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OUR NEXT PAIR OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY CAN BE NOTED ON GOES-19 WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB HEIGHTS AS BOTH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED
OVER COLORADO BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, MUCH OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON
INSTIGATING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT THE
EXIT REGION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE AS IT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, A FAIRLY RESPECTABLE PLUME OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOME
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO AROUND 1-1.5" THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE RECENT HREF GENERALLY HAS RESPECTABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 0.5" TO 1". AS FAR AS TIMING IS
CONCERNED, MUCH OF THE CAMS GENERALLY AGREE ON BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO THE REGION
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY, CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME WEAK CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE SOME WEAK MUCAPE IS
PRESENT IN THE RAP WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS (HIGHER PERCENTILES OF THE HREF HAVE SOME
1.5-2" AMOUNTS IN CLAYTON AND GRANT COUNTIES). OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BY
MID-EVENING ENDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM WEST TO EAST.
OVERALL, SHOULD BE A HEALTHY RAINFALL EVENT BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IMPACTS FROM THIS RAINFALL.
FRIDAY: BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, THE COMBINATION OF
AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING INTO A 40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE PROBABILITIES IN THE NBM ARE NOT
OVERLY HIGH (10-30%) FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH, SOME
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT IN RAP
SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. CONSEQUENTLY,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AS
SHOWERS AID IN MOMENTUM TRANSFERRING DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS
TO THE SURFACE WHERE GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY MORNING: FROST/FREEZE LIKELY
BY THE TIME THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ROLL AROUND ON FRIDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WANE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. CONSEQUENTLY,
EXPECTING WINDS TO DECREASE WITH CLEARING SKIES AS WELL. THEREFORE,
THE SETUP LOOKS FAIRLY SOLID FOR AN EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NBM HAVING FAIRLY HIGH
PROBABILITIES (60-100%) FOR LOWS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LOCAL AREA OUTSIDE OF RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT,
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (60-90%) IN THE NBM FOR A
KILLING FREEZE WITH LOWS BELOW 28 DEGREES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-94, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE (10-40%).
THIS WEEKEND & EARLY NEXT WEEK: DRY, GRADUALLY WARMING UP
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING THE
ADVECTION OF A MODESTLY WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EVEN JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AS SUGGESTED IN THE
MEDIAN HIGH TEMPERATURES FIELDS OF THE NBM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD, NOT SEEING MUCH
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS VERY LOW (UNDER 10%
CHANCE) MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. PROBABILITIES IN THE HREF REMAIN
VERY HIGH (80-95% CHANCE) FOR IFR CIGS TO PERSIST FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MVFR/VFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS WITH
ONGOING RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT WILL SWITCH AND INCREASE BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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