584
FXUS63 KARX 230533
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, BUT HOW WARM WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT AREAS HAVE
SNOW.
- THE FIRST OF TWO MID-WEEK WINTER SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE NORTH OF I-94 WHERE CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS GREATEST (60-80%).
- THE SECOND WINTER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
HAS THE POTENTIAL (40-50%) TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TODAY - MONDAY: COOLER TEMPS LINGER
FLURRIES ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHWARD AND DRIER AIR SHIFTS INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED AN
APPROACHING SURFACE-850HPA RIDGE AXIS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER MONDAY AS SAID RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TUESDAY: FIRST WINTER SYSTEM
THE FIRST OF THE TWO MID-WEEK WINTER SYSTEMS DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AS A FAIRLY SUBTLE 700-500HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ATOP A FLATTENING LONGWAVE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SPUR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THE NORTHERLY TRACK EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE GREATEST SNOW
IMPACTS SHOULD RESIDE NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WITH SOME
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION,
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-94 (60-80%)
RESULTING IN SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THOSE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BUT THE
25TH-75TH PERCENTILES IN THE 22.13Z NBM AND 22.06Z GEFS SIT
AROUND 1-3 INCHES (ASSUMING A 10:1 RATIO, WHICH IS LIKELY CLOSE
TO REALITY PER THE 22.13Z NBM) WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE TO
EXCEED 3 INCHES. THE 22.06Z EPS FAVORS A SLIGHTLY LOWER END
SOLUTION, SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES AT 10:1 IN THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILES.
THERE'S ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION OCCURS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ALONG
THE FRONT, WHICH COMBINED FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE AND
INCREASING 850-700HPA FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD PROMOTE A COUPLE
HOURS OF SNOWFALL TOWARDS I-90 (30-50% PER THE 22.13Z NBM AND
22.00Z LREF).
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: SECOND WINTER SYSTEM
THE SECOND WINTER SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AS SECONDARY, DEEPER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OFF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE
TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY'S SYSTEM,
PUTTING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW AND WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A BAND OF 850-700HPA
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW, WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE SETS THE STAGE FOR A
BAND OF SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS/NEAR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS: WHERE DOES
THE SNOW BAND SET-UP?
OVERALL, THE 22.00Z LREF AND 22.06Z AIGEFS/AIFS PROBABILITIES
SUGGESTS THE BAND OF SNOW IS MOST FAVORABLE GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CURRENT PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS REGION GENERALLY SIT
AT 40-50%. HOWEVER, VENTURING TO LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
OF THESE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS PAINTS A PICTURE THAT IS RIDDLED
WITH LATITUDINAL VARIATION. SOME MEMBERS DEPICT THE SNOWBAND
AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO PINPOINT AN EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BAND AND THE AMOUNTS WITHIN IT THIS FAR OUT.
DESPITE THE VARIATIONS, CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL WITHIN A NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE ACROSS/NEAR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
MID TO LATE WEEK: NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
A WARMING TREND IS DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MID TO
LATE WEEK AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO WHAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE OWING TO QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES THEMSELVES, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS TOWARDS TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE MAIN CAVEAT TO HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CAN GET BY LATE WEEK
IS HOW THE MID-WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEMS PLAY OUT, SPECIFICALLY THEIR
INFLUENCE ON THE SNOWPACK. THE 22.13Z NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW
A SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-90 TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES
FOR THOSE WITH THE LEAST SNOWPACK (30-50%), THOUGH MOST MEMBERS
IN 22.06Z GEFS/EPS SUGGESTS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 30S TO 40S. IF
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEMS BRING MORE SNOW TO THOSE SOUTH OF I-90, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED TOWARDS A COOLER SOLUTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS
LINGERING AT MVFR. THESE REMAINING MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR
SHORTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO SOUTH AND REMAINING UNDER 8 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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