527
FXUS63 KARX 041918
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
118 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER (AMOUNTS
MAINLY 1/2" OR LESS) WITH A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD IN WHICH WE COULD
SEE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER TRANSIENT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE CLIPS
WESTERN WISCONSIN THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. IMPACTS ARE MORE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WITH THE SYSTEM BEING WEAKER AND
TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK.
- ASIDE FROM A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND POSSIBLY LOW 40S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: LIGHT SNOW, MORNING FREEZING DRIZZLE?
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A COMPACT UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT THE EASTERN FLANK OF LONGWAVE
RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAVE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING WITH A 130 KT JET
STREAK PROVIDING AMPLE KINEMATIC LIFT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. WHILE THE OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FAR FROM IDEAL,
THERE IS A 6-9 HOUR WINDOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION THAT WE COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
MEASURABLE PRECIP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94.
SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN P-TYPE AT THE START AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 1/2" OR LESS, BUT THE LOSS OF ICE AT THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION AFTER SUNRISE OPENS A 2-3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
FORCING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DEPART BY MIDDAY. GIVEN THE
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND DRYING MOISTURE PROFILES DURING
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (A GLAZE AT
BEST), BUT COULD COME DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND MAKE
UNTREATED ROADS SLICK.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY MORNING: LIGHT WINTRY MIX AGAIN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RIPPLE CASCADES DOWN
ITS EASTERN FLANK THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST, THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED CLOSER TO CENTRAL WI, BUT THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE THAT IT COULD SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONCE AGAIN, MOISTURE PROFILES WILL STRADDLE
SUPPORTING SNOW VERSUS FREEZING DRIZZLE. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S
SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSIENT AND IMPACTS LIMITED IN TIME
AND SPACE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
SUNRISE, FURTHER MITIGATING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: WARMER, MOSTLY DRY
THE MEAN BLOCKING LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK BREAKS DOWN AND SLIDES EASTWARD AT THE
END OF THE WEEK, TRANSITIONING MORE TO A ZONAL/SOUTHWESTERLY
PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SHIFT
WILL KEEP ANY ARCTIC AIR CONFINED TO THE NORTH, WITH THE
EXCEPTION ON ONE INTRUSION ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN, A PV LOBE RIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO, DRAGGING A POOL OF ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. THE
COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH, BUT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
COULD FALL BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 (30-50% CHANCE).
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES REBOUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
RETURNING BACK TO SIMILAR VALUES THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE TWO
DAYS LEADING UP TO SATURDAY (MID TO UPPER 30S ON THU/FRI OF THIS
WEEK).
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
FEATURE EITHER A ZONAL OR SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, KEEPING THE
STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GOING FOR MUCH, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AND THUS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD
IN THE >35-45 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, EVEN THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDS AREAWIDE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK ARE ABOVE NORMAL, A SOLID INDICATION FOR THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING AT LEAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IT IS
JUST A MATTER OF HOW WARM. SUCH THINGS AS CLOUD COVER AND THE
INFLUENCE OF OUR SNOW PACK WILL START TO COME INTO PLAY WHEN
ANSWERING THAT QUESTION AND IT REMAINS TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN
MUCH MORE FOR SPECIFICS.
WHILE THE NBM FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS
VERY LOW POPS, THERE ARE SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT
COULD RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY, AND
TUESDAY, BUT THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION
IS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY
QUITE DIVERSE IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT AT
THIS TIME IT REPRESENTS THE NEXT SHOT OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BAND OF MVFR
STRATUS JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THAT BAND
SHOULD MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST, EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE RST
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SHOULD
THIS CLOUD DECK OUTPACE GUIDANCE AS AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
WEATHER WISE, LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND COULD IMPACT THE LSE
TERMINAL TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THIS
POTENTIAL WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
WEATHER TYPES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE HONED IN MORE IN FUTURE
UPDATES ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ONE PRECIP TYPE COMPARED
TO THE OTHER. WINDS AT LSE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 7
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RST SEEING SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS
RANGING FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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