773
FXUS63 KARX 211854
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1254 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK WITH
FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (10-30%) TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- SNOW POTENTIAL RETURNS MID-WEEK AS TWO SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
TODAY - SUNDAY: COOLER, FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES BUILDS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES WHILE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, RESULTING IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FAIRLY MINIMAL
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES EXIST WITHIN THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS THEMSELVES WITH ONLY MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS SUITES. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR ACROSS ENSEMBLES, GENERALLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SOME POTENTIAL TO FALL BELOW 0 DEGREES
(10-20%) REMAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE THE SNOWPACK
IS SITUATED AND WHERE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DIMINISH.
OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES, A QUICK MOVING 500HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
ON THE EASTERN-SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH THIS FEATURE, RESULTING IN A SATURATING DGZ. UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND STEEPENING 0-1KM
LAPSE RATES (8-9C/KM PER THE 21.09Z RAP) IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW FLURRY TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IS HIGHEST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WHERE DGZ SATURATION IS DEEPEST, BUT RECENT HIGH- RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY AND WITHIN
ANY FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-35KTS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF
20-30MPH, HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY: SNOW POTENTIAL RETURNS
THE LONGWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN BY MID-
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF 700-500HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY,
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, A SOLUTION FAVORED BY NEARLY 80% OF THE
21.00Z LREF MEMBERSHIP. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 21.13Z NBM,
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A 20-70% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR AREA, INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IF THIS
SOLUTION VERIFIES, THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION (IN THE FORM
OF SNOW BASED UPON SUB-FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES) IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW SITS
AROUND 30-60% IN BOTH THE 21.13Z NBM AND 21.00Z LREF FOR THOSE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 AND 10-30% FOR 3 INCHES, WHICH IS A
SLIGHT INCREASE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IF FUTURE RUNS
TREND THE WAVE TOWARDS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION (20%), A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE SYSTEM WOULD BE EXPECTED AND COULD BRING
AN INCH OF SNOW FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-90.
PREDICTABILITY IS FAR LOWER WITH THE SECOND WAVE, CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. IT'S CHALLENGING TO SAY MUCH AT THIS POINT OUTSIDE
OF THERE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN AMOUNTS AND TIMING/LOCATION ARE
QUITE HIGH. HOWEVER, CURRENT CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH PHYSICS-
BASED ENSEMBLES (GEFS/EPS) AND THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS
(AIGEFS/AIFS) ARE TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE SECOND
WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE FIRST. WHILE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS
LOW, CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A STRIPE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
(10-30%) SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE ULTIMATE TRACK THIS SYSTEM TAKES WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FIRST WAVE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME
CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MID - LATE WEEK: NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED
WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL ULTIMATELY BE
OWING TO VARIATIONS IN HOW THE MID-WEEK SYSTEMS PLAY OUT, BUT
THE OVERALL TREND IN BOTH THE 21.00Z LREF AND 21.13Z NBM ARE
TOWARDS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE NEW WEEK.
THE 21.13Z NBM EVEN DEPICTS A 30-50% PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 50
DEGREES FOR THOSE WITHOUT A SNOWPACK SOUTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA. THE
FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE SECOND ONE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THESE WAVES WILL LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR
RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND IT WILL STAY THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...BOYNE
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