514
FXUS63 KARX 101044
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
544 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3" FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 WITH AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS SOUTH OF I-94. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTH-CENTRAL WI JUST
PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY (60-80%) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-94 AT THIS TIME.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL (60-80%) FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TODAY - WEDNESDAY: RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT, BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT FROM THE MILD WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN SEEING
OCCURS BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND USHERS IN SOME LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AN
ELEVATED AXIS OF THETA-E PUSHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED STORMS FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-90 IN SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHEAST IA. CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR
TWO POSING A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK, PRIMARILY IN GRANT COUNTY,
WI, WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 10.03Z RAP APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7-8 C/KM.
OTHERWISE, AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A
LINGERING WARM NOSE FROM THE ELEVATED AXIS OF THETA-E ADVECTION IN
COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE (DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM/HRRR)
THE LACK OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE POSES A
SECONDARY HEADACHE AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN POTENTIAL PRIOR TO A TRANSITION TO
SNOW. THE DEGREE OF SATURATION BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS IN THE DGZ
DIFFERS BUT EITHER A DRIZZLE OR RAIN CASE WOULD YIELD A RISK FOR A
GLAZE OF ICE. OVERALL, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES IN THE HREF ARE
HIGHEST IN WEST/NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR A GLAZE OF ICE (20-50%) DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THIS FOLLOWS THE OVERALL
CONCEPTUAL MODEL FAIRLY WELL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WOULD BE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA DURING THIS
PERIOD WHICH WOULD AID IN COOLING THE WARM-NOSE LEFT BY THE REMNANT
THETA-E ADVECTION. A BIG QUESTION THAT STILL REMAINS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL THOUGH IS EXACTLY IF ROAD/SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOTE
ANY FREEZING PRIOR TO A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
MILD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IF PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE
ROBUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY ICING CONCERNS AS THE PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN CONCERN WOULD ONLY BE FOR 2-3 HOURS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY, HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR NOW (OUTSIDE OF TAYLOR COUNTY) AS CONFIDENCE
IS SIMPLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR HOW ANY ICING THREAT WOULD
MATERIALIZE.
EVENTUALLY, THE TRICKY WARM NOSE WILL COOL ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
GENERAL CONCEPTUAL MODEL IN THE 10.03Z RAP HAS A PRIMARY AXIS OF 500-
700MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH PRESENTS
IN THE CAMS AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, THE 10.03Z RAP DEPICTS A SECONDARY AXIS OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS LAYER THAT PUSHES THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
WI THAT WOULD KEEP THE SNOW GOING FOR A LONGER DURATION IN THESE
AREAS. AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES IN THE 10.00Z HREF FOR 2
INCHES OR GREATER ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST (50-90%) NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-94. GIVEN THAT THERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES (40-70%) IN
NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY FOR AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES WITHIN THE
HREF. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR
COUNTY, CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
THE 09.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL GET. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR
MIGHT BE AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 90. WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE
COLD AIR NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29. AS A RESULT, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WINTRY MIX OR SNOW WILL GET. IN
ADDITION WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-20S TO LOWER
30S.
WEEKEND
THE MODELS SHOW THAT A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE
OVER THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
BE TRACKING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW
MUCH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INTERACT THIS EACH OTHER. IN
THE MODELS WHERE THERE IS LITTLE INTERACTION, THERE IS LITTLE
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE REMAINS MORE
OPEN. IN THE MODELS WHERE THERE IS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS, THERE IS MORE CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS
RESULTS IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND EVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DEFORMATION BAND NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ENVELOPE OF
SURFACE LOW TRACKS REMAIN QUITE LARGE RANGING FROM NEW YORK TO AS
FAR WEST AS THE DRIFTLESS REGION. AS A RESULT, THERE REMAINS PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WIND STRENGTH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN IMPACTFUL SNOW SYSTEM, BUT THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING
CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLSE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH CIGS CONTINUING TO
DECREASE TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA (70-100%
CHANCE IN THE HREF). OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS LIKELY (50-80%) FALLING TO IFR
LEVELS AT PRECIPITATION ONSET. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN PRIOR TO A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW BEFORE 12Z
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. OTHERWISE, ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AROUND AND AFTER 12Z WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND 1" OR LESS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. SNOW
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS REDUCTIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8-12 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE/NAYLOR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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