694
FXUS63 KARX 241051
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT PRIMARILY
ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STORM INITIATION FROM SOUTHERN THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEAKENING WHILE SHIFTING EAST.
- LINGERING STORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK, QUESTION OF 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
COVERAGE AND DURATION REMAINS CURRENT CONFIDENCE DETAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
STORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT:
SCATTERED, NON-SEVERE STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A EAST-SOUTHEAST STORM PROGRESSION DUE TO MEAN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SAGGING MEAGER UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION SEEN
UPSTREAM THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON GOES UPPER LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DRAGS HIGHER STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WHILE LOCAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUSTAIN
MEAGER OFF SURFACE INSTABILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME, VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR AND A LACK OF SHEAR LIMIT LOCAL CONFIDENCE EARLIER
THROUGH THE DAY AND/OR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
PRECIPITATION & STORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY:
DEPENDING ON SOUTHEASTERN PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, LOCAL STORM CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY EVENING (<20%) AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REINVIGORATES ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW KEEPS OVERALL, WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONFIDENCE LOWER
HOWEVER. SIMILAR LOWER CONFIDENCE LOCALLY FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS ANOMALOUS (90TH+ PERCENTILE 500MB HEIGHTS ABR SPC RAOB
CLIMATOLOGY) HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK:
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH LIMITED SPREAD IN MOST RECENT NBM (24.03Z) NEAR 90
DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THESE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES SEEM OVERWHELMINGLY INFLUENCED BY BIAS CORRECTIONS
EVIDENT IN COMPARISONS TO RAW MODEL INPUTS, 3-7 DEGREES HIGHER
DEPENDING ON EXACT LOCAL LOCALE. THEREFORE, HAVE TONED DOWN 90
DEGREE MENTION BY BLENDING IN SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS,
BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES, STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TO GRAZING THE LOW 90S TUE/WED. WILL BE A DETAIL TO
CONTINUE MONITORING SHOULD NBM BIAS CORRECTION CONTINUE TO SKEW A
WARM BIAS IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE AROUND THIS MORNING IN MANY RIVER
VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FOR TODAY UNTIL THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05Z
AND 08Z. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. CIGS DURING THE RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY BE
AROUND 4KFT TO 8KFT. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 15
MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...CECAVA
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