058
FXUS63 KARX 262332
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY: BEAUTIFUL LATE AUGUST WEATHER!
A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THIS
FEATURE. THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME, WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL NOT REMAIN OVER
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR VERY LONG. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
ARE ONLY UPWARDS OF 20 PERCENT AND MAINLY FOR THE COUNTIES IN
WISCONSIN. THE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LAST NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF THE H500 RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM OVER
THE ROCKIES TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS NOT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES, SO THE FORECAST IS DRY ON THURSDAY
AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SITTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS, MID TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL BRING POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SHOULD TRAVERSE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM AS A
RESULT. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCES IS VARIABLE IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE, SO COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ARE UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SETS UP. THE
RAIN POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION, BUT DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOW
LEVELS, HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCT
CUMULUS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES BRING SOME QUESTIONS FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE, A
VERY SHALLOW LIGHT WIND LAYER AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP THE POTENTIAL VERY LOW (UNDER 10% CHANCE).
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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