724
FXUS63 KARX 110531
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1231 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY, ONGOING WARMING TREND CONTINUES. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE 80S LATER THIS WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL LIMITED IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
RAIN POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING:
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES
TONIGHT ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS WILL CAUSE LOCAL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPTIATION POTENTIAL INITIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH MONDAY,
UNIFICATION WITH MEAGER CONUS ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW CYCLOGENESIS
CAUSES A MORE MERIDIONAL, SOUTHEAST, DIVE NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. CURRENT DIURNAL TIMING LIMITS OVERALL
INSTABILITY WHILST THE RAPID PROGRESSION LIMITS DURATION OF 75TH
PERCENTILE 0.8" PWATS. OVERALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25"+ MORE LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
WARM WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK:
INITIAL RIDGE AXIS APPENDAGE PROGRESSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE START OF THE WEEK, USHERING IN UPPER 70 TO LOW 80 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. A SHORT
COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY QUICKLY COMES TO AN END FOR THURSDAY AS THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGE (90TH PERCENTILE SPC RAOB CLIMATOLOGY) AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WHILE CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACT TEMPERATURES AS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES, CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST LOW TO MID 80
DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ON MONDAY EVENING, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 10 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS GUSTS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032-041-
053>055-061.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-033-
034-042>044.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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