842
FXUS63 KARX 090543
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1243 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS (30-70 PERCENT) AND SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- RECORD WARMTH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS (30-70 PERCENT) AND SCATTERED STORMS FROM BEFORE
SUNRISE INTO THIS MORNING. THE 09.00Z HREF MEAN AND 24-HOUR
LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN RAINFALL ARE ONLY UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO MID-70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WEEKEND
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR- OR RECORD WARMTH. WITH THE NBM HIGH
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RUNNING ON THE COOL SIDE MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, RAISED THE NBM TEMPERATURES UP BY 2 TO 4F BY DOING A 50-50
BLEND OF THE NBM WITH THE 90TH NBM PERCENTILE. NAEFS HAS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES BETWEEN 2.5 AND 2.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR- OR RECORD WARMTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER DRY
BELOW 700 MB AND THAT THE LOW-LEVELS MAY NOT BECOME SATURATED
ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AS RESULT, KEPT
RAIN CHANCES FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND THEN BE IN
60S FOR TUESDAY AND LOWER TO MID-60S ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FROM THE
MID-30S TO AROUND 50 ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY,
CAUSING CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 4-6 KFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, PEAKING AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
RECORD WARMTH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 10
LA CROSSE
RECORD HIGH - 86F IN 1928
WARM LOW - 64F IN 1880
ROCHESTER
RECORD HIGH - 85F IN 1930
WARM LOW - 59F IN 1893, 1930, AND 1973
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11
LA CROSSE
RECORD HIGH - 86F IN 1928
WARM LOW - 66F IN 1928
ROCHESTER
RECORD HIGH - 84F IN 2015
WARM LOW - 65F IN 1928
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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