886
FXUS63 KARX 250525
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NICE, SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND AHEAD.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN MONDAY. IF THESE OCCUR,
ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE IN PLAY. HOWEVER, MANY UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN AND SEVERE STORMS REMAIN MORE PROBABLE TO OUR SOUTH IN
EASTERN IA.
- COLDER THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NEARING FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
NICE WEEKEND
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY MORNING'S FRONT SHOULD LEAD
TO A NICE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
LOCATIONS AROUND BLACK RIVER FALLS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
BRIEFLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW UPTICK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COMES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD. WHILE PRECIPITATION
IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY (90% CHANCE TO STAY DRY) A COUPLE DISTURBANCES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ROLLING DOWNSTREAM JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
COULD BRING A BIT OF RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, MAINLY TO AREAS
NORTH OF AN AUSTIN MN TO OSSEO WI LINE.
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JETS LOOK TO PHASE LEADING TO
LARGE AMOUNTS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY.
INITIAL LEE SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR WESTERN KS LOOKS TO
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO SOMEWHERE IN MN/IA/MO WHERE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A JET OVER CANADA AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET OVER KS/OK
OVERLAP. SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THIS LOW WITH 24.12Z NAEFS/ECENS SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW ABOVE THE
99.5TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN SIMILAR DATA SETS HAVE 200/500MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, STRONG WIND SHEAR
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH A 55-85% CHANCE TO EXCEED 40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR
PER 24.12Z LREF. PROGGED HODOGRAPHS ARE LONG WITH PLENTY OF TURNING
IN THE LOW LEVELS SO THINKING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND ALL HAZARDS
WOULD BE IN PLAY IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
ALL THE ABOVE SAID, THERE REMAIN TWO IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTIES - HOW
FAR NORTH APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REACH AND IF WAA LEAD
TO RECURRENT PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY, PREVENTING DESTABILIZATION. ON
THE FIRST POINT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT TOWARD MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA - NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN -
BEING IN PLAY, PARTICULARLY WITH THE 24.12Z GEFS, WHERE JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF SUFFICIENT CAPE, SHEAR, AND LOW CIN ARE 40-50%
WHILE THE 24.12Z CMCE PROBABILITY IS LOWER, AROUND 20-30%, AGAIN
FOCUSED ON THIS AREA. 24.12Z ECENS PROGGED SURFACE LOWS ARE
CLUSTERED FARTHER NORTH, HAVING PROBABILITIES TO AROUND THE I-90
CORRIDOR, ALBEIT USING MUCAPE RATHER THAN SURFACE PARCELS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY, WHILE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS HIGHER TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, THOSE ACROSS THE REGION WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON MONDAY.
TURNING COOLER AFTER MONDAY
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CHURNS EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THIS FEATURE OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY MORNING. TURN TOWARD LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S PER 25.01Z NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES. OF CONCERN
FOR IMPACTS, MORNING LOWS MAY DROP TO OR BELOW 36 (FROST) OR BELOW
32. WEDNESDAY (20-60%), THURSDAY (30-70%), AND FRIDAY (40-80%) HAVE
A SHOT AT SEEING FROST CONDITIONS AND A SMALLER CHANCE (5-20%) TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AT 10-20KFT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND
REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KTS. CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AT KLSE, HOWEVER WITH A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 8F AT THE TERMINAL AS
OF 05Z, THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY (UNDER 10% CHANCE).
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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