086
FXUS63 KARX 100701
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
201 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT SHOWERS DEPART BY SUNRISE, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN COMES LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY.
IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LOW.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH
MONDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SHOWERS DEPART EARLY THIS MORNING, DRY START TO THE WEEKEND:
THE PRE-FRONTAL 850-750-MB 320-325K THETA-E RIBBON RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TRANSLATES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE, TAKING THE SHOWER
THREAT WITH IT. SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY WITH SUNNY SKIES BY
MIDDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MORNING, THE AMPLE SUNRISE AND LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
STILL REACH THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S AREAWIDE. A 1024-MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CELL SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, BRINGING CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES.
LATE SUNDAY - EARLY MONDAY: NEXT SHOT OF SHOWERS:
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPOSE ITSELF ON THE UPSTREAM FLANK
OF OUR UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER ON SUNDAY. THE
RECENT RUNS OF THE LREF MEMBERSHIP HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ATTENDANT WITH THE LEADING 310K ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WING--INSTEAD FOCUSING THE HIGHER POPS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING ON THE WING OF POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION. WHILE SHOWERS COULD STILL SNEAK INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, THE FORECAST IS
TRENDING DRIER.
AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR SLIDES IN SUNDAY EVENING, THE
RISK INCREASES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. AS WITH OUR CURRENT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS, THE OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM THE SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSIENT AND MINIMAL WITH THE
LREF MEAN QPF OF 0.10-0.20" AND EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STAYING UNDER 0.50". THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH BY MIDDAY MONDAY AND TAKES THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT WITH IT.
BROAD WSW FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF OUR EARLY WEEK RAIN.
GIVEN THE LOWER AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE PATTERN, MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUICKLY BY MIDWEEK WITH THE TIMING OF ANY
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND THE EVENTUAL
BREAKDOWN OF THE PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN TOO NEBULOUS TO SAY MUCH ELSE.
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK:
WITH THE BACKTRACKING ON THE RISK FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TICKED
UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY WITH MANY LOCALES POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 70 DEGREES SOUTH AND WEST OF I-94. THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY SENDS TEMPERATURES BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEYOND MID-WEEK, THE
INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD INCREASES TO 10+ DEGREES OWING
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. THERE ARE A
RESPECTABLE NUMBER OF EPS MEMBERS THAT BRING A WARM SECTOR INTO
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK--A SOLUTION ONLY A SELECT FEW GEFS
MEMBERS SHOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
TWO LINES OF SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED STORMS PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIAL SCATTERED LINE SEEN ON RADAR
PROGRESSING EAST FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, EAST
OF KLSE TAF SITE. SUBSEQUENT SCATTERED STORMS SEEN ON RADAR
IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A ROUGH LINE
AND PROGRESS EAST SIMILARLY. BESIDES LIGHTNING THREAT, TRANSIENT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES FROM INCREASED RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
THE CONCERN AS CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, TURNING WINDS CLOCKWISE, INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION AND STORM
POTENTIAL PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TURN SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...JAR
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