545
FXUS63 KARX 142303
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
603 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
AT 130 PM, SPRINKLES/ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LOCAL
WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUED TO SWIRL OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ALOFT MADE
FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN ISOLATED
SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MINOR DIURNAL
HEATING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW INTO OUR AREA.
COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES AS WELL WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
YET TO REACH THE UPPER 30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY WANE
TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
CRAWL EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL SATURATION IN THE SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER. CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT GIVEN EXTENSIVE STRATUS LAYER
UPSTREAM, BUT WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME BREAKS OPEN UP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
EAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S, BUT
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY, IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50, AS THE CHILLY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY AND
IN THE LOWER AND MID-40S ON TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO THE NBM'S 50TH PERCENTILE. THERE ARE EVEN INDICATIONS IN THE
ENSEMBLES THAT THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH YET, BUT
WITH LARGE MODEL SPREADS THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT THERE TO DO THAT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
PESKY CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE MVFR CLOUDS INTO THE AREA INCLUDING KRST/KLSE SITES INTO
THURSDAY. MODELS STILL INDICATING A BOUT WITH IFR STRATUS AT KRST
IN THE 06-16Z TIME FRAME, SO WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS. LOOKS LIKE
THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FINALLY AFTER 22Z THURSDAY AS
THAT CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND 10KT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...DAS
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