849
FXUS63 KARX 140738
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
238 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
- FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PRIMARILY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. ALONG
INTERSTATE 90, IT WILL START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVERNIGHT. FINALLY IN NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY
RAIN.
- FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. STRONG WINDS IN THE EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
TODAY
THE 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN START TO ORIENTATE
ITSELF WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO
OCCUR PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. INITIALLY DRY
AIR BELOW 700 MB WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW UNTIL
MID- AND LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-
AND UPPER 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. THIS LOW THEN CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA ON SUNDAY MORNING. INITIALLY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING THE SNOW BAND WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER, AS THE 850-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES, SNOW WILL START TO FALL NEAR
INTERSTATE 90. FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST,
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, A 900 TO 700 MB WARM NOSE WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS
AREA WILL CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS ICE WILL
THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY THE EARLY PARTS OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HREF FRAM INDICATES ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
A TENTH AN INCH TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH.
NORTH OF THIS BAND, THE SNOW BAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOURLY SNOW RATES PROBABILITIES WILL
BE IN THE EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR (70-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY
IN THE SREF). THERE ARE EVEN 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR
SNOW RATES IN THE EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IN ADDITION, THE
PROBABILITY OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM 15 TO 40 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT AND 40 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NBM.
IF THIS MATERIALIZES, A BLIZZARD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
SOUTH OF THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BAND, THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. AS THIS
OCCURS, SNOW BAND PIVOTS FROM WEST TO EAST TO FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION, A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LENGTHEN THE RESIDENCY OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SREF IS SHOWING A REDUCTION IN THE 1 INCH OR GREATER
SNOW RATES TO ONLY UP TO 50 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITIES OF WIND
GUSTS IN THE EXCESS OF 35 MPH RANGE FROM 40 TO 85 PERCENT. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF
THIS OCCURS, A BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF A FOOT OR GREATER OF SNOW IS AROUND 30
PERCENT NEAR INTERSTATE 90, AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR INTERSTATE 94,
AND AROUND 85 PERCENT IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. THE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 18 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW IS AROUND 5 PERCENT
NEAR INTERSTATE 90, AROUND 30 PERCENT NEAR INTERSTATE 94, AND AROUND
35 PERCENT IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE THE
BEGINNINGS OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AFTER
00Z WITH AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT DETERIORATION TO WIDESPREAD LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WIZ054-055.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ061.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ008>011.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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