279
FXUS63 KARX 271917
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
217 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN 10%) IN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WARMEST, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OFF AND ON STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
TONIGHT: SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
HELPING TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TRANSIENT SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRETHS BEING REPORTED AT
MOST IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
ALONG WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
AXIS OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA IS PROVIDING A
STEADY FETCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOTED ON RAP 27.18 MESOANALYSIS
WITH A SMALL AXIS OF 1+ PWATS AND ACROSS OUR AREA COINCIDING WITH A
MODESTLY STRONG 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTOR. EVEN WITH THIS BETTER
FETCH OF MOISTURE, STILL NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 0.05 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AT ANY LOCATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS (UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S) THANKS TO PROLONGED CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH, RAIN/STORMS
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF IT.
AT THE SURFACE, A FAMILY OF WEAK LOWS, ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PLAINS AND ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL START
TO MOVE NORTHEAST, CONNECTED IN PART BY A COLD FRONT. THE LOW TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT LOW OF THE TWO WITH
MORE SUPPORT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SETUP OVERALL: THE TWO SURFACE LOWS, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, THE
STRONG UPPER JET AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALL LOOK TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC KINEMATICS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION,
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
STRONG RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY AND NEAR 60 DEG DEW POINTS AND
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS IS A RELATIVELY
ANOMALOUS SETUP FOR LATE OCTOBER AND HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CHANCE
TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING (A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE) PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETER SPACE DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 7 DEG C/KM AND ELEVATED
MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC SPACE WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED
AND LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS LEADING TO INCREASED
SRH, THIS DOES GIVE PAUSE TO THE POSSIBILITY SUPERCELLS OF ALL
HAZARDS BEING POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER AND MLCIN WILL BE OF
SIGNIFICANT HINDRANCE BUT IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED
ALONG THE FRONT (POTENTIALLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR?) SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL WITH ONLY A 5%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE DAY 2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
BETTER CHANCES OVERALL LOOK TO BE TO OUR WEST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOESN'T MAKE IT TO OUR
DOORSTEP LIKELY UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GO BACK DOWN MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN RETURNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE IN LARGE PART TO AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN JET OVER THE PAC NW). AS THIS MOVES NORTHEAST, THIS
WILL HELP SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THERE ARE ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW THIS CUTOFF TROUGH IS HANDLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL PROVIDE SOME KIND OF UPPER SUPPORT
TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. FINER DETAILS WILL
BE SORTED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE TROUGH EVOLUTION WILL
DETERMINE LOCAL IMPACTS.
LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, BOTH EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE LOCKING ONTO A RELATIVELY STRONG CUT OFF LOW
FORMING BY EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOW THIS
CUTOFF LOW EVOLVES COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE EC SOLUTIONS FAVORING A MORE NORTHWARD SWING, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS STILL MUCH
THAT CAN CHANGE WITH THIS BUT IT BARES WATCHING OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
FAIRLY DREARY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER 00Z AS
DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN FOR THOSE WEST AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCCY TO KMDZ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
(<15%) WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ANY MVFR
CEILINGS LIFT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BETWEEN 5-10KFT BEFORE A
SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (20-40%).
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (RECORD/FORECAST):
LA CROSSE, WI
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/28 75F (1945) / 73F 57F (1881) / 56F
ROCHESTER, MN
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/28 73F (2024) / 70F 54F (1989) / 54F
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...JAR
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