197
FXUS63 KARX 021845
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
145 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: DRY AND TRENDING WARMER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE AREA DRY AND WARM. TEMPERATURES STAY MILD FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
WHICH HELPS TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK: SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY AND SHIFTS TO A
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE FLOW PATTERN
RETURNS, PWATS GO ON THE RISE. WITH IT BEING JUNE PWATS GENERALLY
INCREASE BUT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT
NAEFS RUN, THEY WILL BE AROUND 90% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AS PWATS
GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.7" RANGE. AS THE
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING ON THURSDAY. THIS
FIRST WAVE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB WAVE. A LOW
LEVEL JET ALSO BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
BUILDING IN, THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE BEST SHEAR AVAILABLE
WOULD BE IF STORMS COULD ATTACH THEMSELVES ON THIS WEAK BOUNDARY.
WITH LOW AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARD OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AS
DCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 8000 TO 1100 J/KG RANGE IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SPC HAS GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE LOCATIONS DUE TO THESE PARAMETERS.
FRIDAY ALSO HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY THE LATER EVENING HOURS. SHEAR INCREASES, MAINLY IN THE
LOW LEVELS (15 TO 25 KTS OF 0-3KM SHEAR) AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS
MINIMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE INSTABILITY (AROUND 1750 TO 2250
J/KG OF SBCAPE) AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTIES FOR FRIDAY ARE WHAT EFFECT THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
HAVE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION CHANCES. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE LATER
MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION
POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, BOTH WIND AND HAIL HAZARDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. NOT ONLY IS THERE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT,
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR BOTH DAYS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY
AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS HAS IT
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP US ON THE DRIER SIDE, WHEREAS
THE ECMWF HAS IT FURTHER EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. REGARDLESS OF THE SURFACE HIGH POSITION, WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE
MID 80S TO EVEN THE LOW 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...CECAVA
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