031
FXUS63 KARX 081909
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
209 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
- WARM AND MUGGY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S FOR TUESDAY AND THE MID
90S TO LOW 100S FOR WEDNESDAY
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO OCCUR
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST
UPDATES AS THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
TODAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCAPE VALUES LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 500 TO
1500 J/KG RANGE. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.7 AND 2.1" WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. STORM MOTIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY ARE A
LITTLE FASTER, HOWEVER WHEN LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS AROUND 4KM SO THE
COMBINATION OF THIS WITH THE TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES INDICATE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE 00Z HREF DOES HIGHLIGHT WESTERN WISCONSIN
WITH A SWATH OF 1 TO 2" FOR THE MEAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM NOW
THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE LPMM, VIA THE 00Z HREF, THERE ARE
PATCHES OF 3 TO 4" IN PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH WARM RAIN
PROCESSES ONGOING, THESE VALUES COULD VERY WELL OCCUR. IT ALL
DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH TRAINING OF STORMS WE CAN GET DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SO THE
GROUND COULD TAKE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE FLOODING CONCERNS BECOME AN
ISSUE, HOWEVER IF STORMS DO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA, THEN LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD OCCUR. WITH ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, WPC HAS PUT MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: WARM AND MUGGY, STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES OUT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ARRIVES. THIS IS THE HEAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR AWHILE NOW,
HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LAST LONG. DUE TO THE TROUGH STICKING AROUND FOR
A LITTLE LONGER, SOUTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT GET GOING UNTIL THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT DOWN TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 90F ON TUESDAY LOW (AROUND 10 TO 25%)
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE FOR TUESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
EXPECTED. DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDICES
HAVE DROPPED AS WELL, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING THE LOW 90S AND
SOME LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE MID 90S. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY,
WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES, STORMS MAY INHIBIT HOW WARM WE GET. DEWPOINTS INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. EFI VALUES FOR
WEDNESDAY ARE BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 INDICATING THAT THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY. SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY'S PROBABILITIES AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
STORMS INFLUENCING TEMPERATURES, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 90F
HAVE GONE DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY
WIDESPREAD VALUES OF 20 TO 45%. FORECASTED HIGHS STAY MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICES HAVE NOT CHANGED A
WHOLE LOT BY STAYING IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. AGAIN THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON WHEN STORMS FORM AND IF STORMS
FROM THE MORNING IMPACT THESE TEMPERATURES.
SWITCHING GEARS TO TALK ABOUT THE STORMS. AFTER A MOSTLY DRY
TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY BUILDS IN WITH THIS WARM FRONT
WITH 2500 TO 3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CAPPING MAY BE A CONCERN, THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH 850MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS WARM
FRONT AND IF THEY DO, WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS IN WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN
THE 2500 TO 3000+ J/KG RANGE. A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND AS IT DOES, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 40KTS. HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
INDICATING THAT SUPERCELLS COULD FORM INITIALLY. STORM MODES ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM SUPERCELLS TO A MORE LINEAR MODE THAT MAY
HAVE BOWING STRUCTURES. WITH THESE STORM MODES, ALL STORM HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TIMING FOR THESE STORMS BASED ON THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. AI
AND ML GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. EVEN THOUGH THE WARM
FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTH BRINGS IN A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE
MORNING CONVECTION.
THURSDAY: SLIGHTLY COOLER, CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A LOW EJECTS
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR THURSDAY AND MODEST INSTABILITY BUILDS IN. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THIS LOW AND HOW MUCH WE CAN
RECOVER FROM WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF POTENTIAL CONCERN WOULD BE
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS STORMS LOOK TO FIRE EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS STRONGER
THAN WEDNESDAY'S AND WILL PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERALL, WHILE STORMS WILL FIRE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOCATION OF THESE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
EXACTLY WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY AND HOW
MUCH WE CAN RECOVER. THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS TO BE
ON WEDNESDAY BUT A THREAT FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
COULD EXIST, AND AS A RESULT SPC HAS A 15% OR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THESE LOCATIONS DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
ONGOING RAINFALL SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST, PRIMARILY AFFECTING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE NEAREST TERM MOVING INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE TEMPORARY IFR-LIFR VISIBILITIES WHERE THEY SET UP.
FOG IMPACTS APPEARING MORE LIKELY AREA WIDE IN WAKE OF RECENT
RAINFALL. HAVE INTRODUCED LIFR VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT AT BOTH
LOCAL TAF SITES (KLSE/KRST).
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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