088
FXUS63 KARX 210504
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1204 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN VERY LIKELY (60-95% CHANCE) SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL
BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RAIN VERY LIKELY SUNDAY, BUT ONLY IN NORTHEAST IA, SOUTHWEST WI
SUNDAY, WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ROLL
EASTWARD TO IL. AS THIS OCCURS, BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP FROM KS INTO IA/MO/IL, DRIVING ROBUST MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN WILL
FALL NEAR A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. IN OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS, SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE FORCING ALOFT. WITHOUT DEEPER
MOISTURE HOWEVER, AM NOT EXPECTING EITHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOR
HAZARDOUS RAIN AMOUNTS (ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY HAS AN
APPRECIABLE CHANCE - 20-30% PER 21.00Z HREF - TO EXCEED 1" OF RAIN).
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
STRONG AGREEMENT CONTINUES ACROSS GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL
BARREL FROM ND TO LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO OCCUR AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
SETS UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS, ALONG WITH STRONG FORCING WITH THE
WAVE SHOULD (60-90%) LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENCE OF
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT, GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN, SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. NONETHELESS, THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FATHERS DAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL WILL REMAIN VFR. IF THERE IS ANY MVFR CEILINGS, IT WOULD
BE IN FAYETTE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA, AND GRANT
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BOYNE
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