586  
FXUS63 KARX 202041  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
241 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
ON FRIDAY. WEST OF THE MISS RIVER IN IOWA AND MINNESOTA, WIND  
SPEEDS OF 20 GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL PROBABLY CAUSE DRIFTING ISSUES  
ACROSS EAST-WEST ROADS. NEGATIVES: THE SNOW PACK WILL BE 4 DAYS  
OLD WITH FULL SUNSHINE CAUSING SOME CRYSTAL TYPE CHANGE DURING  
THAT TIME AND 2) A WETTER SNOW FELL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR  
FREEZING TO ALLOW A BIT MORE RE-FREEZING OF THAT SNOW MONDAY  
NIGHT. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK, STILL THINK THESE  
WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME DRIFTING ISSUES AND POSSIBLY MINOR TRAVEL  
IMPACTS.  
 
WHILE IT WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY (AROUND 30F), WIND CHILLS WILL  
MAKE IT FEEL 10F COLDER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
BIG PICTURE IS A WARMER WEEKEND (35-43F!) WITH GOOD TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS AND SOME SUNSHINE. THIS WILL ALSO MELT OFF A BIT OF  
SNOW PACK - GOOD FOR FUTURE FLOODING RISK REDUCTION.  
 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT /POSSIBLY INTO TUE AND WED/ CONTINUES TO  
BE MONITORED FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A  
CENTRAL PLAINS STORM. 20.06Z GEFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST PREDICTABILITY  
IS RATHER LOW WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF SPREAD /1-10" OF SNOW AT  
KLSE/,AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS 20.06Z IS DRY AT KLSE, VERY MUCH  
LIKE THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 20.12Z GFS RUN IS NOW  
SHOWING 2-3 DAYS OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT SEEMS THE  
QUESTION IS NOT DYNAMICS WITH THIS STORM, NOR INFLOWING MOISTURE  
/150-200% NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER/, BUT TRACK. MUCH HAS TO BE  
SORTED OUT, INCLUDING PRECIPITATION TYPE WHICH COULD BE A MIX/RAIN  
SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. SO, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW RIGHT NOW IN THE  
OUTCOME AND THUS A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE ENTIRE  
PERIOD. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK IN THE  
REGION...JUST FOLLOW THE FORECAST AS WE APPROACH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS WILL BE AROUND  
FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 
FOR THE KRST AIRFIELD CREWS...BE AWARE THAT WINDS GUSTING TO 30  
MPH FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY CAUSE DRIFTING SNOW ONTO THE RUNWAYS  
AFTER ABOUT 10 AM. THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT  
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT  
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT  
 
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