820
FXUS63 KARX 060538
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TODAY - FRIDAY: WARMER & BREEZY TODAY, STAYING DRY
NORTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS A RESULT, FLOW TURNS TO
SOUTHERLY OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATER INTO THE DAY. CONSEQUENTLY, A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DAYTIME DIURNAL MIXING WILL AID IN
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
REACHING TO AROUND 30 MPH, MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WITH THIS SOUTHERLY PUSH BRINGING 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION, TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH THE INTER-
QUARTILE RANGE OF THE NBM KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NEAR
I-35 TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES IN THE HIGHER PERCENTILES.
EVENTUALLY A SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATER INTO
THE EVENING, RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL,
GIVEN THE LACK OF ROBUST CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT, THINKING
ANY PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY WHICH IS FURTHER SUGGESTED IN THE
CAMS.
AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE WORK WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS
WITH MINIMAL MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
GUIDANCE IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, THINKING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) WHICH HAS MINIMAL (UNDER 20%
CHANCE) MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND: SLIGHT WARM UP
BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GIVES WAY
TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS A RESULT, THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) GENERALLY AGREES ON
PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
RANGES FROM THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THINKING THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY REMAINS
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS STAGE AS TO WHEN THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SO
THINKING THE MODEST (20-40%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NBM
ARE REASONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH GUSTS STARTING BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE KRST
TERMINAL (GUSTS FOR KLSE WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING).
INSTANCES OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS OVER THE
COMING HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 30 KT
THRESHOLD GIVEN THE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS. INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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