838
FXUS63 KARX 130751
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
151 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 35 BELOW THIS
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- WITH THE COLD WIND CHILLS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH 10AM
SUNDAY.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY: BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BAND, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH, WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SAME AREA THAT SAW SNOW ON FRIDAY, THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MASON CITY, IA TO GUTTENBERG, IA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
MOST ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA WILL BE UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS. WHILE
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW STAYS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
MOST PART, FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90 WILL NOT SEE ANY SNOW, AS THE LOW LEVEL ARE FORECASTED TO
BE QUITE DRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO BRINGING BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
IT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH, WIND CHILL VALUES FOR THIS MORNING ARE
BETWEEN -15 AND -35 DEGREES. AS A RESULT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WIND CHILLS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WIND CHILLS DIP BACK DOWN THIS EVENING INTO
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS THAT ARE
NOT UNDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY, ARE IN ONE FOR TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS, -25 TO -35 DEGREES, CWA WIDE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: WARMER AND DRIER
RIDGING AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, MOVES INTO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WARMS UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S FOR MONDAY, MID 30S FOR
TUESDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE (20
TO 40% BASED ON MOST RECENT NBM) OF HITTING 40 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE
A NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: RAIN/SNOW?
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. AS WELL AS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WOULD IMPACT PRECIPITATION TOTALS REGARDLESS IF
LOWER OR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE. OVERALL THIS
WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION AFTER TODAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
CIGS: HIGH, THIN AT TIMES, UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAP/NAM/HRRR HINT THAT A FEW HOURS OF 2 KFT MVFR CIGS
COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. NOT CLEAR
CUT SIGNAL THOUGH AND COULD HOLD NORTH/EAST. WILL HOLD WITH A VFR
FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. IN ADDITION, A SMATTERING OF
MVFR/LOW VFR ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI LATE
THIS EVENING. STEERING CURRENTS WOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THEM IN THAT
DIRECTION - AND UNLESS THERE IS SOME UNEXPECTED WESTWARD BUILDING -
WILL NOT IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
WX/VSBY: UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STREAKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA TODAY
WILL BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THAT STATE, BUT FAVORED TRACK WILL
HOLD ANY SNOW CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, LIKELY AT/ABOVE 10 KTS
SUSTAINED. SOME MOSTLY AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...RIECK
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