834
FXUS63 KARX 301923
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
223 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT ICING CONTINUES IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THIS, AN ICE STORM WARNING
IN TAYLOR COUNTY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN CLARK COUNTY
CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 30,
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICING MAY OCCUR IN TAYLOR
COUNTY AND LIGHT GLAZE IN CLARK COUNTY. DUE TO THIS, KEPT THE
ICE STORM WARNING IN TAYLOR COUNTY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN CLARK COUNTY THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BAND HAS ICE ALOFT, SO AS
TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE IS CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 35 AND IT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HREF CONTINUES TO HAVE GENERALLY UP TO 1 INCH SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 AND GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THIS
INTERSTATE. THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 3
INCHES (UP TO A 10% PROBABILITY) NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
WITH THERE STILL BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 800 MB AND A
LOSS OF ICE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS DEFORMATION BAND, THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN
20%) REMAINS LOW THAT THIS COULD TAKE PLACE.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE 30/12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OR MORE EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE GEFS SOLUTIONS REMAIN FURTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF ECE.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND A
WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. THE 10TH PERCENTILES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW. MEANWHILE, THE 90TH
PERCENTILES ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FOR SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH WILL
THE WARM SECTOR WILL GET. THIS IS DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDING AND WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR. IF THE AREA CAN GET INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY (POTENTIALLY UP
TO 1000 J/KG) AND SHEAR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH AND A MARGINAL RISK UP TO INTERSTATE 90.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK
FROM ENE TO NW THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS AWAY, INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE, ALLOWING MORE GUSTS TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AS WELL, AS PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES.
MEANWHILE, IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY MORNING, MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE (30 TO 40%) FOR A MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TAFS AND FORECAST ARE LEANING INTO THIS
CEILING SCATTERING OUT, BUT WILL ASSESS WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...JAW
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