628
FXUS63 KARX 030718
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
218 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE DECREASING AS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHIFTS SOUTH FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND TODAY.
- HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ALSO DECREASING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TODAY
THE 03.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. EVEN THOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE
CAMS. ONE GROUP OF CAMS TAKES THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SIOUX
FALLS AREA AND MOVES IT EAST THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, OTHERS MOVES THIS CONVECTION SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA.
FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR, THE LATTER SOLUTION LOOKS FAR
MORE PLAUSIBLE. CONSIDERED CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY, BUT
WITH STILL SOME CAMS HAVING THE STORMS TRAINING ACROSS THE AREA
OPTED TO KEEP IT GOING. IN ADDITION FOR THIS SAME REASON, OPTED
TO EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TO 03.18Z. WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FURTHER SOUTH TODAY, THE BETTER RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S.
TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. AS IT APPROACHES, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING
NORTHWARD THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THE WARM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO LARGE SPREADS WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES
AND GENERALLY WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A
MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 AND IN THE MID- AND UPPER
80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR IS WHETHER THE CLOUDS SLOW THE SURFACE COOLING.
WITH SOME CAMS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING, KEPT THEM IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW TIME TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE CAMS. ONE GROUP OF CAMS TAKES THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SIOUX FALLS AREA AND MOVES IT EAST THROUGH OUR
AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, OTHERS MOVES THIS
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. FROM LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
RADAR, THE LATTER SOLUTION LOOKS FAR MORE PLAUSIBLE. CONSIDERED
CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY, BUT WITH STILL SOME CAMS HAVING
THE STORMS TRAINING ACROSS THE AREA OPTED TO KEEP IT GOING FOR
NOW.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75
INCH RANGE AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS DECREASING INTO THE 3
TO 3.5 KM FROM TODAY INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY, THE CHANCES OF
HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE DECREASING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ON JULY 2, 1.82 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. THIS SURPASSED THE OLD RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 1.34 INCHES
SET IN 1933.
THE 2-DAY (JULY 1-2) RAINFALL OF 3.29 INCHES WAS THE MOST SINCE
AUGUST 7-8, 2021 WHEN 7.36 INCHES OF RAIN FELL (LARGEST 2-DAY
RAINFALL EVER RECORDED IN ROCHESTER).
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ041-042-
053>055-061.
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ087-088-
094>096.
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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