107  
FXUS63 KARX 132353  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
653 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY LATER TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. AMOUNTS  
MOSTLY FROM 1/4 TO 1/2". PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THEN PERSIST INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
- TUE AND WED TRENDING COOL, ALBEIT STILL NEAR THE MID OCT NORMALS,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. WARMING AFTER THAT WITH LOW-MID  
70S RETURNING FOR MANY THU/FRI.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NEW WEEK,  
LIKELY PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE GEFS  
AND EPS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SO RIDGE-TROUGH, RIDGE-TROUGH  
TRANSITION EVERY COUPLE DAYS. WPC CLUSTERS ALL ON BOARD WITH THIS  
ALTHOUGH WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN SPEED/STRENGTH OF THE  
TROUGH/RIDGES. ALL SAID, THE FLOW FAVORS PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH  
TEMPS MOSTLY AT/BIT ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
> RAIN CHANCES: NUMEROUS RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL ON  
PACE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT THE PLAINS AND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NOT MUCH  
ORGANIZATION TO THESE PERTURBATIONS - A MESSY, DISJOINTED  
AMALGAMATION - BUT ALSO A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS. QG  
CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND NOT MUCH FOR UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT. BROAD  
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO PUSH NORTHEAST WITH THE  
RIPPLES, PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AND/OR AID INITIAL  
SATURATION. SPEAKING OF WHICH, MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO  
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT THE OUTSET, GRADUALLY  
INCREASING IN DEPTH PER SATURATING AND/OR ADVECTION. THE DEEPER POOL  
OF MOISTURE DOES HOLD TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT A LARGE SWATH OF WEAK  
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE  
LOCAL AREA TUE NIGHT WILL PROVIDE AN EXTRA KICK, AND BETTER MOISTURE  
TO WORK ON. RESULT OF THE BROAD LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD  
BE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT  
- WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES AND BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS TRENDING  
FOR TUE NIGHT. FOR AMOUNTS, THE 25-75% IN THE LREF SUGGEST FROM NEAR  
1/4 TO 1/2" ARE LIKELY. NOT NECESSARY A LOT OF RAIN BUT EXPECT  
EVERYONE WILL GET WET.  
 
MOVING AHEAD...WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY  
PERIODICALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION - BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN  
CHANCES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM(S)  
AND MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE(S) MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
> TEMPERATURES: A COLD FRONT PUSHED EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH COOLER/COLDER AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS  
WAKE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL FROM AROUND 12 C THIS AFTERNOON  
TO AROUND 6 C OVERNIGHT TUE. NOT EXCEEDING COLD BUT ENOUGH TO COOL  
TEMPS BACK TO, OR BELOW, THE MID OCTOBER NORMALS. LATEST LREF BRINGS  
PROBABILITIES FROM 60 TO 90+% FOR HIGH TEMPS UNDER 60 DEGREES  
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 TUE/WED. WITH RIDGING BECOMING MORE  
PRONOUNCED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, MILDER AIR WILL RETURN  
TO THE REGION. NEARLY 75% OF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS WARM HIGHS  
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THU-SAT. THE UPPER 5% WARM INTO THE  
UPPER 70S.  
 
WHILE WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK THERE WILL BE  
POCKETS OF MID 30S LOWS IN THE COLD DRAINAGE AREAS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-  
CENTRAL WI TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE  
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST - WORKING AGAINST FROST DEVELOPMENT.  
GIVEN THE MOSTLY LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE COLD POCKETS ALONG WITH  
THESE LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY EXPERIENCED A FROST/FREEZE  
- DON'T ANTICIPATE A NEED FOR HEADLINES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT WHILE THE LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAWIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASES WEST TO  
EAST TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (20-50%). TO  
HIGHLIGHT THIS, SHOWERS ARE NOW MENTIONED AT KRST. A FEW  
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD AT KLSE,  
BUT HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT OF THE TAF AS HIGHER POTENTIAL  
ARRIVES AFTER. ANY SHOWERS COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT  
TIMES, POSSIBLY IFR IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. CEILINGS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT TREND LOWER TOWARDS  
MVFR/IFR BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...RIECK  
AVIATION...FALKINHAM  
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