579
FXUS63 KARX 291740
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1140 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING
MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. 6+ INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. AREAS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE A 40-80%
PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING 1 FOOT. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
- COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE (10-30%) THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
WINTER STORM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TODAY AS A 500HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD, TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. 850-700HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE
MIDWEST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW, INITIATING
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
RAP/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BELOW FREEZING
ATMOSPHERE SUCH THAT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE THE SOLE
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT. THESE SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE THE DGZ IS GENERALLY SITUATED WITHIN THE
800-600HPA LAYER, ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS LAYER OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 285-295K SURFACE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
VARIOUS BANDS OF FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUE TO BE DEPICTED OVER
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WITHIN THE RAP WHICH
WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH REGARD TO QPF AND SLRS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (75-95%) AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90 WILL SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SEEING UPWARDS OF 1 FOOT
OF SNOW UNDER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 0.5-1 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCINGS.
THE TREND OF INCREASED SURFACE WINDS OWING TO A CLOSER TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES, WITH THE 29.00Z HREF HIGHLIGHTING
70-100% PROBABILITIES OF 35MPH WIND GUSTS BEGINNING THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, STRONGEST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 29.00Z HREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF 35MPH
GUSTS AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4MI SIT AT 30-50%, INDICATING
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
BLOWING OF THE FRESH SNOWPACK COULD LEAD TO NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. IF THESE CONDITIONS OCCUR, VERY DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS WOULD RESULT.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY, BUT THERE ARE
SOME INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT SNOW LINGERING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING (10-20%), PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STEEPENS 0-2KM LAPSE RATES TO 6-7 C/KM,
REACHING INTO A MODESTLY SATURATED DGZ. THE BREEZY WINDS AND ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM USHERS COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE
COLDEST PERIODS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING
AS LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AREA
WIDE, ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE 25TH-75TH
SPREAD IN THE 28.18Z EPS HAS INCREASED AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS FOR MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY OWING TO POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM
THAT THE EPS HOLDS ONTO LONGER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THANKFULLY, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA (-25F), ALTHOUGH AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAY APPROACH THESE VALUES THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK
CONTINUE TO SEE PROBABILITIES (10-30%) FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NEW WEEK AS VARIOUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY IS THE NEXT SHOT AT SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH
THE 29.00Z LREF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A ~80% PROBABILITY THAT THE
BULK OF ANY SNOW STAYS TO OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS A NORTHWARD
TREND, NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WOULD BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREAS TO SEE A PERIOD OF TRAVEL IMPACTS. AFTER THIS
TIMEFRAME, WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY SEE SNOWFALL
PROBABILITIES, BUT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DIVE INTO MUCH
DETAIL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE
BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. PREDOMINANT IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES, DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE SNOW AND
LOWERED CIGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1500FT, THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW LETS UP SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AS VISIBILITIES AND CIGS INCREASE. NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH THESE
WINDS, LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ017.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...CECAVA
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