220
FXUS63 KARX 112327
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A BRIEF LULL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A POTENT
CLIPPER RACES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK TO BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29, BUT THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS THAT ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 60 MPH AND ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS SHAPING UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-90%) IN A BAND OF 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES (20-30% CHANCE). THE
BIG QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SETS UP.
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, TRAVEL MAY
BE IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS STORM.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: SNOW DEPARTS
OUR ONGOING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SOLAR INSOLATION COUPLED WITH LESSENING
SNOW RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER BEFORE
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY AM: SNOW IN NORTHERN WI, STRONG WINDS
A POTENT CLIPPER WAVE DIGS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, DEPARTING
BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. ANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
SEE SUFFICIENT WAA TO KEEP THE ATTENDANT ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT FALL AS RAIN, WITH A SHARP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THERE STILL EXISTS A 2-3 COUNTY WIDE N-S SPREAD IN THE STORM
TRACK AS THE LOW TRAVERSES NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PLAY
HEAVILY INTO WHETHER CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES SEE IMPACTS FROM
THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND. THE GOING FORECAST LEANS MORE ON THE
TRACK PORTRAYED BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES (KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29), WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS
BEEN DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RACE SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A
60-70-KT 850-MB JET CARVES OUT THE W/SW SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW, WITH STEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES TAPPING
INTO THIS JET. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND MECHANICAL MIXING
SHOULD FUNNEL THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE, IT IS JUST A QUESTION
OF HOW STRONG. FORECAST PROFILES FROM THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND
CONVECTIVE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER FULLY REALIZING THIS
850-MB JET AND EXPLICIT WIND GUSTS FROM THESE MODELS ARE PUSHING
INTO WARNING LEVELS (50-60-KTS). IT LOOKS LIKE THESE WINDS WILL
BE MAXIMIZED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE
SUBSIDENCE BRANCH OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION AND
ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL CO-EXIST. THEREFORE, THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS LOOK TO OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD. WHILE STILL BLUSTERY,
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER OUTLIER POSSIBILITY--BUT SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING--WILL
BE IF ANY SNOW ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SURGE.
SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT HIGH (<1"), BUT ANY
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WITHIN THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF
ADVISORIES OR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS.
LATE SATURDAY - SUNDAY: MAJOR WINTER STORM AFFECTS THE REGION
A WINTER STORM THAT HAS BEEN LURKING IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
FOR MANY DAYS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN ITS
CROSS HAIRS. IT TRULY IS A MATTER OF WHERE, NOT IF, WE SEE A
BAND OF 6-12+ INCHES OF SNOW OCCUR. THE FORECAST ENVELOPE IS
NARROWING AND AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
FOCUSING ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. WE ARE STILL JUST UNDER 4 DAYS
AWAY FROM THIS EVENT AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REMARKABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS RANGE OF THE FORECAST. ON THE FLIP SIDE,
BEING FOUR DAYS OUT, THE FORECAST STILL HAS TIME TO SHIFT
APPRECIABLY IN TIME AND SPACE.
FROM AN INGREDIENT STANDPOINT, THE STORM IS A CLASSIC. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER AN ELONGATED FGEN BAND ORIENTED ALONG THE LOW
TRACK AND PIVOTS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE NBM SNOW
AMOUNT PROBABILITIES ALONG I-90 ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT: 90%
FOR 6", 50-70% FOR 12", 10-20% FOR 24". AND THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS
OUT!
STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW AND
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WETTER NATURE OF THE SNOW EARLY
ON COMBINED WITH THE WINDS COULD RESULT IN TREE AND POWER LINE
DAMAGE AND IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIOS PLAY OUT,
BLIZZARD HEADLINES WILL BE ON THE TABLE.
IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT TRAVEL MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THIS WINTER STORM. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS
AND WINDS OF 30-40 MPH COULD MAKE ROADS IMPASSABLE, ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
COOLING TEMPERATURES
A SURGE OF CAA TRAILING OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM SENDS TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING BACK TO VALUES MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY FEBRUARY. HIGHS
ON MONDAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS FOR SUN/MON NIGHTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS--LOCALES THAT SEE THE FRESH SNOW LIKELY
SEEING LOWS FALL BELOW ZERO. THIS COLD SNAP LOOKS TO ONLY LAST A
FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS
A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOTS RANGE AND GUSTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...BOYNE
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