684
FXUS63 KARX 221949
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
149 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL (15-50%) FOR DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW LOCATIONS
CLARK/TAYLOR/JACKSON COUNTIES MAY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT
THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP THERE IS ON THE LOW END
(15-30%).
- NEXT DECENT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ARRIVES CHRISTMAS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WHICH MAY (5-30%) BRING SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS,
IMPACTS ARE FAVORED TO BE MINOR.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
DRIZZLE, FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
WITH THE MIDWEST BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN NC AND A LEE
CYCLONE IN E MT. RAP/HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE CONSISTENTLY
SUGGESTED SATURATION - AS EVIDENT BY ONGOING STRATUS - WILL CONTINUE
WITH CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. GIVEN MODEST
LIFT OCCURRING DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED WAA, HAVE ADDED MENTIONS OF
DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN LIQUID IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WET
BULB TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
CLARK/TAYLOR/JACKSON COUNTIES, SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE, ALTHOUGH MORE
SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTHS IN THAT AREA SUGGEST IT WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO GET ANY HYDROMETEORS TO FALL AT ALL.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CHRISTMAS NIGHT
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, UPPER WAVE LOOKS TO RIDE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS, EJECTING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AT SOME TIME DURING THE DAY, MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE MOST FAVORABLE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH, OUR
CWA MAY YET BE LOCATED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR PRECIP ALONG WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
850MB WAA. SHOULD CURRENT TIMING SEEN IN 22.12Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
HOLD WITH THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVING DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,
POTENTIAL (5-30%) FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WOULD EXIST ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94 WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING
WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE 0C DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED WAA.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD FOR NOW BUT, EVEN SHOULD
FREEZING RAIN OCCUR, OVERALL MOISTURE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS ASIDE FROM SLICK UNTREATED ROADS (22.13Z NBM 95TH
PERCENTILE VALUES ARE 0.1" OF ICE ACCUMULATION OR LESS).
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY
BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FAVORED
THROUGH SATURDAY. INDEED, EACH AFTERNOON HAS A VERY GOOD (55-95%)
CHANCE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. SIGNAL ACROSS GUIDANCE IS ROBUST WITH
22.13Z NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGHS OF 2-4 DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SNOWMELT OCCURS, HOPES OF
A WHITE CHRISTMAS MAY BE DASHED AS A MUDDY CHRISTMAS DEVELOPS
INSTEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE (10-30%) THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SOME
MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WHERE DRIZZLE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
DRIZZLE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN LIQUID, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
FREEZING DROPLETS TOWARDS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94 OVERNIGHT WHERE BASES MAY REACH IFR. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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