126
FXUS63 KARX 182344
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
644 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM IMPACTS MOSTLY CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN BEING THE DOMINANT
PRECIPTIATION TYPE. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30%) FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR NORTH OF I-94.
- WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE IS A 30 TO 55%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING AT LEAST 70F ON SATURDAY FOR
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY MORNING: DRY TODAY WITH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AFTER SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, A QUICK HITTING
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET JUST BELOW FREEZING, WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA, THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY ON IF TEMPERATURES CAN GET BELOW FREEZING AND IF THEY
DO, HOW LONG TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. SOME MODELS
HAVE IT ONLY EFFECTING TAYLOR COUNTY WHILE OTHERS ARE SHOWING IT
MOVE THROUGH THE I-94 CORRIDOR. HEADING INTO THE EVENING, MORE
CLARITY WILL HOPEFULLY REMOVE THESE REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES. IF IT
DOES PRECIPITATE, DUE TO THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, NOT
MUCH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. TOTAL QPF RANGES MAINLY FROM A
TRACE TO 0.1" WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLATTENS AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NORTHWEST, THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HELPING TO BRING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD.
ONE THING THAT MAY INHIBIT THIS WARMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS
THE AMOUNT OF SNOWPACK THAT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE RIGHT
NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE TEMPERED A LITTLE BY THE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
LARGELY IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL GIVE
A BETTER IDEA OF HOW WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD GET IF WE CAN
MELT QUITE A BIT OF SNOW. THE LATEST LREF HAS MEAN 850 TEMPERATURES
IN THE 9 TO 13C RANGE. EFI VALUES FOR FRIDAY ARE IN THE 0.6 TO 0.8
RANGE FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FOR
SATURDAY THEY ARE IN THE 0.7 TO 0.9 RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90. THE LATEST LREF ALSO HAS A 30 TO 55% CHANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY HITTING AT LEAST 70F ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND SATURDAY HAS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S. AGAIN THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER ON SATURDAY IF MUCH OF THE SNOW COVER
GOES AWAY DUE TO SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING OCCURRING. WITH THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES, SOME RECORDS MAY FALL, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: COOLER WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK A TROUGH SITS OVER THE REGION BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER STILL IN THE 40S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE
50S BY MIDWEEK. LOW PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND ANOTHER ONE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT LOCALLY
NORTHERN SMALLER AIRPORTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN (KMDZ) TONIGHT.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SNOW COVERED, COLD GROUND
WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FG ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING BOTH TAF SITES
(KLSE & KRST). THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED 1/4SM MENTION OVERNIGHT
AT 19.00Z ISSUANCE. DIFFICULTY DISCERNING DURATION OF LARGEST
IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED LINGERING LIFTING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BUT WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ADJUSTMENT IN
COMING 19.06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
RECORD WARMTH POTENTIAL SATURDAY, MARCH 21ST, 2026:
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH
ROCHESTER, MN: 69 / 70 (1918)
LA CROSSE, WI: 67 / 75 (2022)
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
CLIMATE...JAR
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