009
FXUS63 KARX 201802
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING, ENDING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEFORE 9AM
AND AREAS EAST BEFORE NOON.
- COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
- A RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THIS MORNING: ONGOING HEAVY SNOW
AT THE 11TH HOUR, OUR WINTER STORM MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD
WOBBLE AND BROUGHT THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND BACK
TOWARDS A CHARLES CITY/LA CROSSE/WISCONSIN RAPIDS LINE WHILE
BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO GRANT
COUNTY. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN TERMS OF SNOW
AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND OF HIGHEST SNOW, JUST SHIFTED A COUNTY
OR SO FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN WE HAD YESTERDAY. IT ALSO
HIGHLIGHTS THE WELL-ADVERTISED FACT THAT THE FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN FLUID RIGHT UNTIL THE END, WHICH IT SURE
WAS.
THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW PULLING OFF TO NE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, ALLOWING THE TROWAL TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND
BEGIN DUMPING ITS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW. THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 5 TO 6AM, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SHUNT OFF TO THE EAST AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
MIDDAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HR ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST SNOW, RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS UP AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY, RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FOR THIS MORNING THAT
WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW--MOST IMPACTFUL ON
EXPOSED AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RIDGING BUILDING EASTWARD.
THE WEEKEND: COLDER, FLURRIES SAT NIGHT?
POLAR AIR LURKING OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING FINALLY STARTS
TO FILTER SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT GIVEN THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES, THERE WILL NOT BE A
COHESIVE PUSH TO BRING THIS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE END
RESULT WILL BE A STEADILY COOLING FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR SUNDAY AND LOWS MONDAY MORNING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO THE FOCUS FOR A ROUND OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF
THE 500-MB VORT LOBE.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: WARMING UP, MAYBE SOME RAIN/SNOW?
SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AND SPREAD EAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF SHUNTING OUR COOLER AIR BACK TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, EXACTLY HOW THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN REMAINS
LESS CERTAIN AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A PACIFIC AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AND INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 30S AND MAYBE 40S (POSSIBLY
INFLUENCED BY WHERE WE HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND). THE
INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD INCREASES TO 10-15 DEGREES
BEYOND TUESDAY (20-25 DEGREES FOR THE 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES),
A FUNCTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND HOW FAR SOUTH
IT SINKS LATER IN THE WEEK.
A FEW QUICK HITTING VORT LOBES EJECT AND RIDE DOWN THE CREST OF
THE RIDGE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS WITH THESE SYSTEMS IS LOW AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE PREDOMINANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE
POST-SNOW NORTHWESTERLY WIND REGIME. NARROW AXIS OF CLEAR, VFR
CONDITIONS IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SLIDING EASTWARD AS
OF ISSUANCE. LSE MAY BE VFR BRIEFLY AS A RESULT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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