595
FXUS63 KARX 161108
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
508 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE JUST BEFORE
THANKSGIVING.
- SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN
SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
- FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THE AIR MASS BELOW 600 MB REMAINS VERY DRY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BROKEN DECK OF MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID- AND UPPER 30S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST DAY
WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SINCE NOVEMBER 26.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA EAST INTO
UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S THROUGH MID-30S. ON THURSDAY MORNING,
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS TO BE RAIN. THERE IS A 40-60
PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO A 5
PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS BAND WILL GET. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR 1
INCH OR GREATER OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY 5-30 PERCENT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 AND ONLY UP TO A 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS FOG HAS
FAILED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA, LIKELY
DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CIRRUS AND HIGH ENOUGH NEAR SURFACE
WINDS TO KEEP WARMER/DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN. WHILE NEAR-TERM OBS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED SHOULD ANY FOG DEVELOP IN THE COMING
HOURS, THIS WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-90 AND OUT OF THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE
WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, THIS WILL CREATE SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT THE CURRENT MAGNITUDE LOOKS TO STAY BELOW THE
30KT LLWS THRESHOLD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS
POSSIBLE AT THE KRST TERMINAL. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER TO
A MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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