943
FXUS63 KARX 182349
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
549 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INTO
LATE THIS EVENING. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO AS LOW
AS 1/2 MILE AS SNOW FALLS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST IOWA
WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST IOWA.
- NARROW BAND OF INCREASED (1"+) SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE HEAVY
SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF SNOWFALL INHIBITS OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS, CONFIDENCE FOR 5" OF SNOWFALL REACHES 50% IN SPOTS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 70% PROBABILITIES FOR 40 MPH 10 M
WIND GUSTS SUGGEST WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING: LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
NORTH OF I-90, STRONG WINDS AND DRY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN:
19Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS A STRONG UPPER WAVE OVER CENTRAL MN WITH A
BELT OF MOIST ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THIS FEATURE OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS,
NOTABLY DRY AIR IS SEEN AS EVIDENCED BY LOW AND MID LEVEL WV
CHANNELS AND SURFACE OBS, WHERE RH VALUES UNDER 20 PERCENT ARE SEEN
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL IA JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
UNDER THE BELT OF MOIST ADVECTION, MULTIPLE SITES ACROSS MN ARE
REPORTING SNOW WITH SEVERAL IN WEST CENTRAL MN UNDER A QUARTER MILE.
THIS SNOW HAS BEGUN SHIFTING INTO SE MN AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE.
WITH THE ARX VWP DETECTING 55-60 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
700MB, WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN INCREASING AS WELL WITH GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH ONGOING ACROSS SE MN EASTWARD ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE SNOW AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD IS, DESPITE THE
LIKELIHOOD (60-90%) THAT AMOUNTS REMAIN UNDER 3", THAT VISIBILITY
DROPS ENOUGH FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. OBS DOWN TO 1 MILE
HAVE OCCURRED AT RST/9MN/OWA WHILE THEY HAVE LARGELY REMAINED A BIT
HIGHER JUST TO THE SOUTH AT AUM/FKA/ONA. WITH THIS LARGELY IN LINE
18.12Z HREF VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES, HAVE MAINTAINED ONGOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE SAID PROBABILITIES SUGGEST CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY (60-80%) CONTINUE TO DROP TO AROUND 1 MILE.
TO THE SOUTH UNDER THE DRY AIR, EXPECT EFFICIENT MIXING TO BRING THE
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SURFACE, LEADING TO RH VALUES FALLING UNDER 20
PERCENT IN OUR CWA, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PARALLEL DEFINED
BY THE MN/IA BORDER, WHICH REMAINS CLOUD FREE AS OF 19Z.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION TIMING & TYPE THURSDAY:
INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIQUID WHILE PROGRESSING NORTHEAST WITHIN LOBES OF OUTGOING
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE
ALBEIT THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN ENTRAINED
FILAMENT OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INHIBIT INITIAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ATTEMPT
TO OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR SURROUNDED BY MORE SATURATED AIRMASS ABOVE
AND BELOW. ENHANCEMENT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE AS THE CYCLONE PAIR
ENTANGLES, MOISTENS AND EVENTUALLY SATURATES, THE COLUMN THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING:
SUBSEQUENT MESO-BETA NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ENHANCED
FRONTOGENESIS CO-LOCATED WITH A SLIGHT ZONAL ADVECTION OF SNOW
SUPPORTING HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING RAISE CONCERN FOR 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES.
WHILE OVERALL RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS ENHANCED BAND APPEARS
RELATIVELY TRANSIENT, THE STRONG FORCING /NEAR/ THE SURFACE FREEZING
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD WARRANT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA.
CORRESPONDING HREF (18.12Z) CONFIDENCE FOR 5"+ OF SNOWFALL PUSHES
50% IN SPOTS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COMBINED WITH 60-70% (HREF 18.12Z)
PROBABILITIES FOR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS, WINTER IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATION COULD BE HAZARDOUS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE (50%+) FOR WARNING IMPACTS WOULD SUPPORT WATCH
ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON, CURRENT ONGOING WINTER ADVISORIES, RED FLAG
WARNINGS, AND WIND ADVISORIES WITH CONFIDENCE WANING ON EXACT
LOCATION, RESULTED IN COLLABORATION OF LEAVING POTENTIAL WATCH OR
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PERIOD(S).
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES & LINGERING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND:
WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN WANES THROUGH FRIDAY, THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REINTRODUCE MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SINGLE DIGIT APPARENT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
NIGHTLY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PERPETUATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
RANGING FROM VFR SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TO IFR ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. AREAS OF SNOW AND POTENTIALLY BLOWING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS START TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL START TO DRIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LARGELY ENDING BETWEEN 06-09Z. A BIT OF
A COMPLEX CIG FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS BOTH TERMINALS SIT ON
THE OUTER EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK. THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KRST,
COULD WOBBLE BETWEEN SCATTERED VFR TO BROKEN MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE KRST DROPS TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. KLSE COULD
SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW PIVOTS
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND
TO BETWEEN 5 TO 12 KTS. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT TO A MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIVER.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA, WHERE WINDS OF 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE SEEN
ALOFT ON LOW AND MID LEVEL WV SATELLITE CHANNELS AND EFFICIENT
MIXING HAS BROUGHT THIS DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE WITH RH VALUES
DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS LOW AS 16
PERCENT IN THE WATERLOO IA AREA. THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES
ACCORDINGLY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT NO MAJOR WIND SHIFTS ARE
FORESEEN AND CONSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET, AFTER WHICH WINDS WILL REDUCE IN SPEED
AND, AFTER MIDNIGHT, TURN CLOCKWISE TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-061.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ086-087-094-
095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
086-087.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON/JAR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
FIRE WEATHER...FERGUSON
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