033
FXUS63 KARX 211716
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE REMAINS HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
OVERNIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY DEW POINT
HAS RESULTED IN STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING THIS EVENING. THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT TO GO, LOWERED
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY USING THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE.
THIS LOWERED THE LOW TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES.
THEY NOW RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN ANOMALOUS STRONG 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA'S WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WITH THE NBM RUNNING
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND MUCH OF LAST WEEK,
USED THE 50 50 BLEND OF THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND THE NBM TO
RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES. THIS RESULTED IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S
TONIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ON FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER AND MID-50S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE UP TO A HALF-INCH.
THERE IS UP TO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT RAIN TOTALS WILL GREATER
THAN THAT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ON
SUNDAY AND IN THE 50S ON MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S ON
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THERE IS PLENTY OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10KT CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS CURRENTLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IFR/LIFR
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN CALM TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS, SATURATING LOW LEVELS, AND A LIGHT WIND LAYER
EXCEEDING 4KFT. SOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION MAY
SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY EXPECT FOG TO DIMINISH BY
15Z-16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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