572  
FNUS71 KRLX 181332  
FWSRLX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MOLLYS CREEK FIRE...WV-NRP  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
832 AM EST MON NOV 18 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 EST ON NOVEMBER 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING  
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO  
TUESDAY. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, A LIGHT SPRINKLE, OR IN  
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX, CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK. A STRONGER  
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................9 INCREASING TO 20 IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 12 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........84 80 75 71 70 72 74 76 78  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............38 43 45 47 49 50 50 49 47  
RH..............83 68 62 58 54 52 51 54 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.9 2.2 3.8 4.9 4.5 3.6 2.7 2.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 6  
LVORI...........4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............5 5 12 19 24 24 21 16 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.  
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 6 MPH.  
LVORI...............6.  
ADI.................3.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........80 82 81 81 80 79 79 78 81 83 86 88  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............44 43 41 41 40 39 38 38 37 37 36 36  
RH..............65 68 72 73 75 79 84 86 88 93 95 96  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 5  
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 8 8  
ADI.............4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.  
LVORI...............5 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
ADI.................20 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........92 93 94 95 98 94 91 89 84 79 74 69  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............20 20 10 10 0 10 10 10 10 10 20 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 0 10 10 10 10 10 20 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............36 36 35 40 42 43 44 45 45 45 45 44  
RH..............97 98 98 82 76 70 68 62 62 60 60 62  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..1 0 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2 2 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW W W W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 5 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5  
LVORI...........5 5 M M M M M M M M M M  
ADI.............19 20 M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...SL  
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS FIELDEN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1918857.3/RLX  
.DELDT 11/18/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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