478  
FNUS71 KRLX 121310  
FWSRLX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHEAT FORT SUMMIT RX BURN...USFS MONONGAHELA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
910 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON AUGUST 12.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WARMER TODAY WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A POP  
UP SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 4 PM EDT. IF A SHOWER  
OR STORM DOES OCCUR AT THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON, AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY  
BE AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES.  
 
CLOUDS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM,  
WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM HITTING THE  
BURN SITE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY, AND IF IT  
DOES SO, EXPECT AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTER 3-5 PM.  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE BURN SITE. STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVERS, BUT WILL CONTAIN HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS. GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES TO  
AROUND 1.25 INCHES, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE HIGHER AMOUNTS IF REPETITIVE  
STORMS OCCUR.  
 
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL AFTER 1600, THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 9 MPH.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................11 INCREASING TO 34.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........23 19 14 17 19 22 24 26 28  
WEATHER COV..... SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2  
TEMP............63 66 70 72 74 75 76 76 75  
RH..............84 78 68 66 62 60 56 56 55  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8  
LVORI...........5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1  
ADI.............7 11 14 18 21 23 27 34 34  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT  
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM  
INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2100, THEN NO TSTMS UNTIL  
0300, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0500.  
 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7  
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
LVORI...............4 IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
ADI.................25 DECREASING TO 5 IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........33 39 44 46 47 49 51 53 55 56 58 59  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............20 20 20 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 40  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 40  
LAL.............2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1  
TEMP............74 72 70 68 66 65 64 64 64 64 64 64  
RH..............57 66 73 78 84 87 90 97 97 93 93 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 3 3 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 6 6 8 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.8 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8  
LVORI...........2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 M M M  
ADI.............25 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 7 M M M  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................40 PERCENT INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1400, THEN 16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1700, THEN 9-15  
STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH LATE  
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.  
LVORI...............MISSING.  
ADI.................MISSING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........64 68 73 76 83 86 86 85 84 85 87 88  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY CHC  
CWR.............40 40 40 50 50 50 50 60 60 70 70 70  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 50 50 50 50 60 60 70 70 70  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 3  
TEMP............64 65 65 66 68 71 72 74 75 76 76 75  
RH..............90 90 90 90 87 81 81 76 74 71 71 74  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 10 12 14 16 17 16 16 16 16 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13  
LVORI...........M M M M M M M M M M M M  
ADI.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...SL  
REQUESTED BY...CAMERON CRISP  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1913693.0/RLX  
.DELDT 08/12/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.25  
 
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