875
FXUS61 KPBZ 211651
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY WITH A
NEW DISTURBANCE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; FLOOD CHANCES ARE LOW
2) ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING. COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY DUE TO LINGER LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVERAGE.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. CURRENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO, WHERE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS IS PROJECTED. HOWEVER, IF
THE LOW-PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS FARTHER EAST, THAT HEAVIER
RAINFALL AXIS COULD EXTEND INTO THE PITTSBURGH AREA.
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL TOTALS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO--GREATER THAN 70% THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED ROADWAY FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
LOCALIZED LOW-LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS
SATURDAY MORNING. ADVANCING DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DECREASE RAINFALL
INTENSITY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATES
THAT A RIDGE AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES, DRIVEN BY A STALLED LOW-PRESSURE SOUTH OF ALASKA. AS A
RESULT, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY REACH THE LOW TO MID-80S.
THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING "MODERATE" OR GREATER HEAT RISK---
WHICH CAN IMPACT HEAT-SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS, PARTICULARLY THOSE
WITHOUT AIR CONDITION--IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND
40-50%BY THE WEEKEND OF MAY 30TH.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
AS DRIER AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER AT TERMINALS WITH RAIN (LBE/MGW) THIS AFTERNOON. LBE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT MGW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WV.
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST TODAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH AGAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS RAIN LIFTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH A WARM FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM S-N FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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