967
FXUS61 KPBZ 131129
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE DECREASED, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70,
FOR THE SUNDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH. A
WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLURRIES ENDING WITH CLEARING TODAY
2) RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY SOUTH OF I-80, WITH A
WINTRY MIX IN THE RIDGES
3) WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRATOCU WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER WAS ALSO RESULTING IN A FEW FLURRIES, BUT THESE
SHOULD ALSO END BY EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER THE HIGH. MOST AREAS
SHOULD AGAIN RISE ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES
AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW TRACKS ACROSS NY AND
CENTRAL PA, THOUGH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DUJ.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY, WHILE A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS THE TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
CONUS, AND TRACK TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVERALL WITH THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIP ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW. POPS HAVE DECREASED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE, AND ARE NOW CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80,
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I-70. MAINTAINED THIS MODEL BLEND
SOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH OTHER MODELS ALSO
KEEPING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES FROM PHASING.
OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, ENDING SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST
POPS CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF THE I-68 CORRIDOR. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN, AND POSSIBLY BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN, FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIDGES. PROBABILITIES FOR
0.25 INCH OF QPF REMAIN HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY END SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME GRADUAL ICE DECAY ON AREA RIVERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS NEXT WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE, ESPECIALLY TOWARD MID
WEEK. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE WAVES TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY, AS DEW POINTS ALSO
INCREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ICE DECAY ON AREA RIVERS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) LOW-END VFR (LOCALLY MVFR) STRATOCU SCATTER THROUGH MORNING;
VFR PREVAILS THEREAFTER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
2) PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH
------------------------------------------------------------
MANY PORTS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD VFR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH TODAY. MVFR STRATOCU REMAINS ACROSS ZZV AND DUJ AT
THIS TIME. ZZV IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT HERE OVER THE COMING
HOURS WITH A MORE GRADUAL SCATTERING AND LIFTING FORECAST FOR
DUJ. AFTER GOING CLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME TONIGHT, FKL QUICKLY
PRODUCED FZFG, ALTHOUGH THIS IS VERY LOCALIZED AND WEBCAMS IN
DOWNTOWN FRANKLIN ARE LARGELY CLEAR. AREA-WIDE VFR IS EXPECTED
BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATOCU LOOKS TO MOVES IN AFTER 03Z SATURDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND POSSIBLY DOWN INTO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN PA. AS EXPECTED, THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR (60-80%)
WILL BE AT FKL/DUJ. THOSE PROBABILITIES DROP TO AROUND 50% IN
THE BVI-PIT-LBE CORRIDOR, WHICH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
ROUGHLY WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK MAY BE
LOCATED. EVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR (20% OR LESS) EXIST
AT ZZV/HLG/MGW WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEARER DURING THAT TIME.
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR ARE LOW (20-30%) AT FKL/DUJ AND MINIMAL
(LESS THAN 20%) EVERYWHERE ELSE.
OUTLOOK... SOME NORTHERN PORTS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE CEILING
RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS A SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES SOUTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING MVFR AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/AK
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