235
FXUS61 KPBZ 240721
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
321 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. REMOVED KEY MESSAGE FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARM FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TODAY, WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
2) NEW DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE OVERNIGHT CLEARING, EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
ABOVE AVERAGE AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
WHEELING, WV AND NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH MAY TIE OR BREAK THEIR
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS--59F (2022) IN WHEELING AND 55F
(2011) IN NEW PHILADELPHIA.
WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW
80S, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT BETWEEN 1-3PM. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF PITTSBURGH, WHILE DRIER AIR MIXING ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP DEW
POINTS LOWER AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE
WARM FRONT MAY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS A 15%
CHANCE OF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THAT.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL REACH EASTERN OHIO
BETWEEN 11PM FRIDAY AND 1AM SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND LONG THE FRONT.
INCREASE SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FROM WEST TO EAST, WILL
LIKELY DECREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 7PM AND 9PM SATURDAY.
THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA MAY EXPERIENCE LINGER SHOWERS AFTER
DARK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD RETURN
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING AND TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD ARISE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING IF ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS PERMIT. CURRENT PROBABILITIES
OF ORGANIZED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (AROUND 500J/KG AND 30KTS
SHEAR) RANGE FROM 15-35%, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSED SOUTH OF
I-70. IN THIS SETUP, ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY FROM MARGINAL WARMTH AND MOISTURE COULD RESTRICT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
NEAR 5-10 KTS. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. PROBABILITY FOR THESE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION
OUTSIDE OF FKL/DUJ.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CRAVEN/RACKLEY
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