519  
FXUS61 KPBZ 122126  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
526 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM, HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A DAILY  
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF  
PITTSBURGH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN  
IN THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS OF TUCKER, PRESTON, AND GARRETT COUNTIES  
AND IN NEAR VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE IN THE VICINITY OF 1000 J/KG DUE TO  
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM, MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERNEATH  
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LACK OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, PULSE-  
STORM MODE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH DUSK. GIVEN LACK OF STORM  
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, HAVE REDUCED POPS  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING  
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A SIMILAR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE QUASI-  
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. PERSISTENT,  
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN DAILY, DIURNALLY-SUPPORTED  
CONVECTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND AS  
AN UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
THIS WEEKEND. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE AND DRIER/COOLER WEATHER BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR WILL REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD  
COVER OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG THURSDAY  
MORNING. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR ANY TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY  
FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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