519
FXUS61 KPBZ 122126
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
526 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2020
SYNOPSIS
WARM, HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A DAILY
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE INITIATED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS OF TUCKER, PRESTON, AND GARRETT COUNTIES
AND IN NEAR VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE IN THE VICINITY OF 1000 J/KG DUE TO
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM, MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERNEATH
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LACK OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, PULSE-
STORM MODE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH DUSK. GIVEN LACK OF STORM
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, HAVE REDUCED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A SIMILAR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. PERSISTENT,
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN DAILY, DIURNALLY-SUPPORTED
CONVECTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS PROGGED ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER/COOLER WEATHER BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL REMAIN AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR ANY TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
FOR THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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