108
FXUS61 KPBZ 131138
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS, THEN MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY.
SHOWERS RETURN WITH A WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT
2) STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WIND. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING, MAINLY ACROSS NW PA, WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW
CLOUDS INDICATE THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF RT 422, AND ALONG
THE RIDGES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, A 30-25KT 850 MB JET, AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
GUSTY SW WIND (AROUND 25 MPH) BY LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRATUS MIXING OUT AND DISSIPATING. RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND MIXING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A
WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS THIS WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. SHEAR INCREASES,
THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, WITH ML CAPE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL
SOUTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE RETURNING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PULLING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. A JET ALOFT, MIXING,
AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS FROM
35-45 MPH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY. IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER ARE GENERALLY 50 PERCENT OR LESS,
THOUGH THESE WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
WELL.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AFTER FROPA, AN UPPER TROUGH, AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
SNOW IS GENERALLY 10 PERCENT OR LESS FROM NW PA TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN
DECREASING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE COLDER AIR, FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIFR STRATUS AT KDUJ SHOULD MOVE NORTH BY 13Z PER SATELLITE
TRENDS WITH ALL LOCATIONS VFR OTHERWISE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK WILL ALSO END OVER THE
NORTH BY 13Z.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY SW WIND FROM 20-25KT BY MID
MORNING.
AFTER SUNSET WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY AND DECOUPLING, A FEW
HOURS OF LLWS IS EXPECTED AT HLG BVI PIT AGC DUJ FROM ABOUT 01
TO 05Z.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS (MOST LIKELY MVFR) IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND RESTRICTION CHANCES.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD GUSTY WIND.
PROBABILITY OF KPIT GUSTS FRIDAY:
35+ KNOTS 90%
40+ KNOTS 60%
45+ KNOTS 30%
50+ KNOTS <10%
SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD MAINTAIN RESTRICTION POTENTIAL,
ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CRAVEN
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