155
FXUS61 KPBZ 161136
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY INCLUDES MOST OF WESTERN
PA AND NORTHERN WV. PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
(OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) HAVE ALSO DECREASED. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WIND TODAY
2) COLDER WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
3) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE MIDWEST
TODAY, AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING FLOW WITH A
JET ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHEAR, WITH BUILDING
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FRONT. ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF OHIO, WITH AN EARLIER
FROPA. FURTHER TO THE EAST, BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES. WINDS AT 10KFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 60KT AT THE TIME OF FROPA ACROSS WRN PA, WITH AROUND 50
KT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME VEERING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, WITH SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ROTATION SHOULD
PARAMETERS BRIEFLY ALIGN, THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE FROM
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING.
PROBABILITIES OF ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS HAVE DECREASES ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROCEDURES. STILL, GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
THOROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY COULD
SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH, BUT HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH THE RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN EXPECTED WIND GUSTS.
THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY 4-5 PM, ENDING THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE AS COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY
THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING, SO OTHER THAN
A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES, NO SNOW IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE EAST COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, AS A LOW DEEPENS/CLOSES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION, WITH LIGHT WIND AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH A FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. FROST
ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST
OFF OF THE SE COAST, WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AREAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SHOULD BE
UNDER A RIDGE, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TODAY AND PROCURE TWO MAIN ROUNDS OF RAIN.
THE FIRST ROUND IS DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT; EXPECT FALLING
CIGS TOWARD MVFR PRIOR TO AND AT ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, SHIFT
FROM SW TO W/WNW WINDS PLUS LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF GUSTS
MEETING/EXCEEDING 40KTS, POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN CAUSING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, AND LIMITED LIGHTNING CHANCE FAVORING
LOCATIONS NEAR/SE OF KPIT.
THE SECOND ROUND ARRIVES ROUGHLY BETWEEN 00Z-08Z TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH SAGS SOUTH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY, WHICH BETTER
TAPS WARM LAKE WATERS TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ALONG A SECONDARY
FRONT/WIND SHIFT. LOWER IN PROBABILITY, THIS SOUTHWARD MOVING
WAVE COULD CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH IFR
CIGS/VIS.
AFTER THE FIRST ROUND, THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER IS ON AND OFF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS BETWEEN 20-30KTS
THAT WANE A BIT AT NIGHT WITH CLOUDS THAT COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN
LOW VFR TO LOW MVFR LEVELS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FULLY END
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE BUILD FROM THE
REST.
OUTLOOK...
LIFTING/BREAKING OF RESIDUAL MVFR TO VFR STRATOCU EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BUILD OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SAVE FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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