535
FXUS61 KPBZ 071146
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WAS IN
PLACE WILL ENSURE A DRY FORECAST DESPITE A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. LOW- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE
AN APPEARANCE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
BETWEEN 8AM AND 11AM THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TROPICAL SYSTEM COMING
ASHORE AND LIFTING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAINFALL NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. MEAN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR ROUGHLY 48 HOUR
TOTALS SHOWS ROUGHLY 1.00" TO 1.25" AT THIS TIME POINT BUT
WITHIN THE QUARTILE, BEING TOTALLY REASONABLE, THIS AMOUNT
BECOMES AROUND 1.50" THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW THE FFG SINCE WE
HAVE AND WILL BE DRY FOR AWHILE BEFORE ONSET. THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WOULD HINT AT SOME MINOR ISSUES IN THE NORTHERN WV
COUNTIES. A BLOCKING TREND OF SLOW MOVEMENT MIGHT CHANGE THIS
BUT FOR NOW, THIS EVENT POINTS TO NON-FLOODING RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
THERE IS A 0% CHANCE OF 500 J/KG OR GREATER SB CAPE AND EVEN A
PROB OF GREATER THAT 250 J/KG IS ONLY 20% TO 30% SO WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT A SEVERE THREAT FOR NOW.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO OUR REGION, BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ONTARIO, AND A TROUGH
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOME INTERMITTENT RIVER VALLEY FOG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AT AGC,HLG, AND MGW. AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT
STILL POSITIONED UP NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL INFLUENCE
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 KNOTS.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEVELOP
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS. OTHERWISE, A VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED.
WIND WILL EASE TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. CLOUDS
TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY
POTENTIAL RIVER VALLEY FOG TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
OTHER THAN VARYING CHANCES FOR MORNING RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG,
VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL A DISTURBANCE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/LUPO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page