023
FXUS61 KPBZ 191316
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
916 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FROST ADVISORY HAS ENDED THIS MORNING AS RISING TEMPERATURE
ENDS CHANCES FOR FROST TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS, THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
RECENT NIGHTS AND MAY NOT REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CLOSED LOW WILL PERSIST OFF OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN, A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
PERSIST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
REGION, RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON THE NE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY, AS THE EAST COAST LOW EXITS
EASTWARD. LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS.
RIDING SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD AGAIN BY LATE WEEK, WITH CONTINUED
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIVER VALLEY
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. AGC IS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IFR
IMPACTS WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW OFF OF THE RIVER, HOWEVER, FKL
COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM/LUPO
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