438
FXUS61 KPBZ 272347
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT THE PRIMARY AREA OF
CONCERN IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONT. FLOOD
CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
AREAS THAT PREVIOUSLY SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING SUCH AS
MARION, PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES IN WV.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.
2) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORED THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR A
LITTLE WHILE IS ON ITS MARCH BACK SOUTH TODAY. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR I-70 AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLEARING OUR REGION AFTER
SUNSET. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO BRING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION.
OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.62 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE
THE DAILY MAX CLIMATOLOGY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS,
THESE HIGHER PWATS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ALREADY AND THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL FOLLOW THEM SHORTLY. UPWIND
PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE NOT OVERLY FAST AND ARE LARGELY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT ITSELF, SUPPORTING TRAINING OF STORMS LIKE WE
PREVIOUSLY SAW IN TUCKER COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING. AS THE
FRONT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
AREAS THAT ALREADY SAW BETWEEN 0.50-1.00 INCHES AND AS HIGH AS
2.00 INCHES (IN PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES) OF RAINFALL FROM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL ON THESE SENSITIVE AREAS WILL LOCALLY HEIGHTEN FLOOD
CONCERNS, LARGELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV, WHERE THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE REMAINS AROUND 1.10 TO 1.25 INCHES BUT THESE VALUES
MAY NO LONGER BE REPRESENTATIVE IN AREAS WHERE WE SAW HEAVY RAIN
THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10PM THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF CLEARING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME
HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN WV SLOWLY INCREASING THE
AVAILABLE CAPE. THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES SOUTH SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS REMAINS HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IF THESE
DEVELOP OVER AREAS WHERE WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAIN TODAY
(MARION, PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES). A SECONDARY THREAT IN
THIS ACTIVITY IS FOR HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SITS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE WITH AN EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING
TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES. THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS ISN'T THE BEST WE HAVE SEEN WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR,
LARGELY MEDIOCRE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND A NEED FOR MORE
AMPLE CAPE, DEMANDING MORE HEATING. STILL, THERE IS A LOWER END
RISK FOR A HEAVY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN NORTHERN WV THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION CHASED BY HIGH
PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES
STILL SHOW SOME VARIATION IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN A TROUGH DUG
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, A WARM AND WET AIRMASS OVER THE SE
CONUS AND THE LARGE AMPLITUDE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS US ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PROMOTING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO ROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH BUT POPS
LOOK RATHER LOW. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS WE GET MORE TROUGHING TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF MASON-DIXON LINE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DURING INSTANCES OF
HEAVIER RAIN, CEILINGS COULD DROP TO HIGH-END MVFR AND
VISIBILITY TO IFR. THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN WV INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE AFTER RAIN DEPARTS. WITH THE ONSET OF
HEATING/MIXING UNDER CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY, A QUICK RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY, WIND WILL FRESHEN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
AREAWIDE VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ513-514.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/AK
AVIATION...CERMAK/LUPO
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