460
FXUS61 KPBZ 251631
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1231 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORAML
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY FINALLY
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NEW DAY, SAME MESSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL, WITH
DRY WEATHER HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A
500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL PROVIDE A SMALL BOOST TO ALREADY ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS AND
A MINOR TEMPERATURE BUMP DOWNWARD, BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THAT BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY APPEARS
TO STILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES; A CLOUD
INCREASE IS EXPECTED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN OHIO VALLEY
SHORTWAVE NEXT WEEKEND THAT MAY FINALLY BREAK THE DRY SPELL ON
SUNDAY. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW STRENGTH AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES, SO RAINFALL COULD GET PUSHED LATER ONCE
AGAIN, BUT A WETTER POST-HALLOWEEN PATTERN IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SAVE FOR LOW PROBABILITY RIVER
VALLEY FOG RESULTING IN MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY MONDAY MORNING
(11Z-13Z). WIND REMAINS LIGHT (WITH SOME SPEED INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE W/SW) WITH PASSING CIRRUS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ENSURES VFR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH RISING TEMPERATURE AND INCREASING CIRRUS REDUCING
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG RISK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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