658
FXUS61 KPBZ 290610
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE HEAT RISK BY MID WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE STORY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS HOT WEATHER AREAWIDE. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND BRINGS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR, NOT
RECORD BREAKING WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BREAKING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AT SEVERAL SITES
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 90S WILL
BE COMMON, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THAT TIME AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE 100F TO
104F RANGE. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SOME WARNING
CRITERIA FOR WED AND THU BUT THE DAYS ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
WOULD BE MORE LIKE ADVISORY VALUES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS
EVEN DURING AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO HEAT INDICES CLIMBING
ABOVE 105F IN SOME SPOTS. WHILE THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY (PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS LOCATED RIGHT ALONG
MAJOR RIVERS), HISTORICALLY SPEAKING IT IS DIFFICULT FOR THIS
REGION TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
THAT HIGH (E.G., PITTSBURGH HAS SEEN A TEMPERATURE OF 95F AND
DEWPOINT OF 75F OR GREATER ONLY 4 TIMES SINCE 1952). THUS, THE
CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE MODELED DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD
HIGH AND WILL END UP VERIFYING IN PERHAPS THE MID 60S DURING
PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP WIDESPREAD
APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW 105F AND THUS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS.
IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK WILL BE IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3
OUT OF 4) WITH AN EXTREME HEAT RISK (LEVEL 4 OUT OF 4) FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SINCE 2005,
PITTSBURGH HAS NOT VERIFIED AN EXTREME HEAT RISK, SO WE WILL SEE
IF THE DEWPOINT FORECAST TRENDS A SMIDGE LOWER, WHICH WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THIS INDEX. A QUICK REFRESHER, NWS HEAT RISK IS A
COLOR-NUMERIC BASED INDEX THAT USES HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER,
CLIMATE, AND CDC HEAT-HEALTH DATA TO IDENTIFY POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT.
IT IS ALSO GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT A BIG DRIVER OF IMPACTS TO
PEOPLE IN HEAT WAVES ARE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
BECAUSE PEOPLE CAN'T COOL OFF AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONERS. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS OR FAMILY THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ELDERLY, OR WITHOUT AC, PLEASE CHECK ON THEM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. GRANTED THIS IS FAR DOWN THE
ROAD, BUT WHEN WE HAVE A HEAT WAVE, TYPICALLY THERE IS A ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT ENDS IT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND THE
WESTERLIES DRIVING A WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
QUITE PERSISTENT IN A STOUT SIGNAL BY FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, THE
PROBABILITIES ARE LARGELY IN THE 15%-30% RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGIN TO SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS RIGHT FOR FOG DEVELOP. WILL EXPECTED BELOW IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN AT JUST ABOUT ALL THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND
CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 71 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 74/1934
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 96/1991
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 97/1931
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 71/1903
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 77 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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