224
FXUS61 KPBZ 220505
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1205 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS DECAY OVERNIGHT
- DRY DAY WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS DECAYING IN THE MORNING
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
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BIGGEST CHANGE OVERNIGHT IS TO TRY AND TIME THE DECAY OF THE
STRATOCU DECK. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. SO A DRY PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WITH THE WAVE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
- SLOW WARMING TREND
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A PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
COULD SPREAD ANOTHER STRATOCU DECK OVER THE REGION AND SLOW THE
TEMPERATURE MODERATION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY, WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
- NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MAINLY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS, THOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD MIX IN WITH COLD ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGHS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH READINGS
RETURNING CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ERODE THE MVFR STRATO LAYER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN
EROSION TIMING IS HIGHEST FOR TERMINALS NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
KPIT AND LOWEST AT FKL/DUJ. BY 18Z, THERE IS AN NEAR OR GREATER
THAN 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FROM ENSEMBLE MODELING THAT ALL
SIGHTS SIT AT VFR (WITH POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SCATTERED
LAYER). CLOUD COVER THEREAFTER WILL BE MID-LEVEL DECKS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY MONDAY (MORNING MVFR STRATUS
AROUND FKL/DUJ DOES SHOW 20-30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE).
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RESTRICTIONS AND
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...WM/22
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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