996
FXUS61 KPBZ 151701
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK, ALONG WITH MORE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. REASONABLE RAIN CHANCES LIKELY WILL NOT RETURN
UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
---------------------------------------------------------------
OUR DRY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ONTARIO REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SHOULD MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
US OTHER THAN SPREADING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. DEEP MIXING
AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
AND ALTOCUMULUS UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS. MOST OF THESE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL COLLAPSE WITH SUNSET, LEAVING THE HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WILL DOMINATE TODAY,
SUPPORTED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S WILL REPRESENT VALUES JUST A TOUCH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION, SAVE FOR LOW SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
- SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
--------------------------------------------------------------
THE EAST COAST LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CHURN NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, REACHING THE DELMARVA REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF THE PA/WV
RIDGES WILL SIMPLY BE WAVES OF HIGH CLOUD SPINNING IN FROM THE
EAST, AS RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
ALONG EAST-FACING SLOPES, ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE REALIZED TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, WITH TUESDAY NIGHT STILL THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD. ANY
SUCH PRECIPITATION WILL DO LITTLE TO DENT THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT
OVER THE REGION THOUGH. THE SAME EASTERLY FLOW, DOWNSLOPING TO
THE WEST OF THE LAURELS, WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION
AWAY FROM THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MOST PART.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
GIVEN THE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR EAST, BUT
THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOME FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE GIVEN THE OVERALL DRY AIR
MASS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- PROLONGED DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------------
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COASTAL LOW OPENS UP INTO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT SLOWLY EDGES OUT TO SEA WITH TIME. MEANWHILE, THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ALSO SHIFTS EASTWARD ACCORDINGLY, WITH THE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY DROP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING RIDGE, BUT ANY SUCH PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
THREATEN THE OVERALL DRY REGIME THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK. IN CONTRAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE WITH THE DRY AIR AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OPPORTUNITIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES A BIT IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL CLUSTERS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. REASONABLE SOLUTIONS
INCLUDE A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN IF THE RIDGE
HOLDS, OR A TREND TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT, BUT WELCOME, RAINFALL. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST INCLUDES A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW RAIN CHANCES AT THE
TAIL END OF THE FORECAST, ALONG WITH A MODEST TREND TOWARDS
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ROOTED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CONTINUANCE
OF VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CU ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN 5-8
KFT UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CU IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
ABATE AFTER SUNSET BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY
OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTS AT OUR PORTS PRECLUDES ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. FKL WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY CULPRIT BUT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (NEAR
20%).
OUTLOOK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN, PROMOTING VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. CLEAR SKY
NIGHTS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...AK
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