649
FXUS61 KPBZ 171906
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
306 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH, THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
WE GOT A REPORT OF GRAUPEL, WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT.
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWING THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE
NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 THANKS TO BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH, AS
WELL AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS THE COLUMN COOLS, SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO MIX IN THIS EVENING, WITH THE CHANGEOVER CONTINUING AS
OVERALL COVERAGE STARTS TO TAPER. CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING
ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BORDER, BUT OVERALL, A STILL WARM
SURFACE AND LACK OF GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH CONDITIONS WILL RULE OUT
ANY ACCUMULATION OF NOTE.
AWAY FROM THE PRECIPITATION, CLEARING SKY AND SLACKENING WIND
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO AROUND FREEZING. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS AS APPROPRIATE
ACCORDING TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SEVERAL COUNTIES NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THESE HEADLINES, AS CLOUDS AND
WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
ALSO PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION. FOREST/JEFFERSON/INDIANA WERE
INCLUDED IN A FREEZE WARNING GIVEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND 32, DESPITE THE LIMITING FACTORS MENTIONED.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES, BUT LINGERING COLD ADVECTION/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
MANY LOCATIONS FROM REACHING 50 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CHILLY ONCE AGAIN, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST.
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A FLATTENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S, ALTHOUGH VALUES
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND THE FIRST RAINDROPS MAY
ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BY SUNSET AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS IT
SWINGS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES OFF
ONCE AGAIN, AND POSSIBLY ALLOW ANOTHER MIX WITH SNOW IN SOME
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBZERO
850MB TEMPERATURES.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON, ALTHOUGH THE
OUR AREA MAY BE SKIMMED BY A TROUGH AS IT CROSSED CANADA,
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE
AND PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR FKL AND DUJ INTO THE
EVENING. WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT,
MIXING WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD BASE TO STAY ABOVE 3,000FT AND
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH A FRI
NIGHT/SAT COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ009-016-
023-074-076.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
029-031-073-075.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
012-510>514.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ021-509.
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