628
FXUS61 KPBZ 150529
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
129 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR DISCUSSION SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH
MAX AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE
MULTI- DAY MCS EVENT. AREAWIDE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY.
3) SEVERE RISK CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER NORTH OF I-70 AND MARGINAL RISK BETWEEN I-68 AND I-70.
STORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. AT ITS
STRONGEST, THE RIDGE WILL NEAR 590DAM (JUST OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THIS ABNORMALLY
STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABNORMALLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES (OVER 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
SATURDAY. OUR LOCATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COMING
DAYS. LOCALLY, HEAT LOOKS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS HITTING 580DAM OVER THE CITY AND WIDESPREAD 850MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 14-16C, SUGGESTING THAT UNHINDERED MIXING
WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 80S.
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 80 DEGREES REMAIN NEAR
AND OVER 60% FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY-
THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE HEATING
MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY A RAIN-LADEN COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS COULD FINALLY HELP SHAKE UP THE PATTERN BEFORE
MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
TIED OR SET AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAILY RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE ONLY
THING POSSIBLY KEEPING A LID ON RECORD CHALLENGING RUNAWAY
HEATING. THESE CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH, CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND THUS PROBABILITIES OF RECORD SETTING
HEAT GENERALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EACH SITE FEATURES
AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH A >40% CHANCE TO SET A NEW RECORD HIGH
AND PHD (SHORTEST CLIMATE RECORD) FEATURES 3 DAYS WITH >70%
CHANCE. CONCURRENTLY, EACH SITE ALSO FEATURES AT LEAST 2 DAYS
WITH >50% CHANCE OF SETTING NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AND PIT FEATURES 5 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH >65% CHANCE OF DOING SO.
PIT FEATURES SEVERAL "LOW HANGING FRUIT" IN THIS CATEGORY WITH 3
SUCH DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. OUR FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY LOWS MAY BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 58 BY A WHOPPING
8 DEGREES.
MINOR HEAT RISK CONTINUES AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE RETRACTING SOME ON FRIDAY. HEAT IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE
FELT BY THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION. SPECKLED MODERATE RISK AREAS CONTINUE
TO CROP UP WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY AND ARE EXPANDING IN AREA,
MAINLY IN THE OHIO AND MON RIVER VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A MULTI-
DAY MCS EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS
PATTERN OWING TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FEELS MUCH MORE
LIKE A JUNE SETUP THAN AN APRIL ONE. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET THE TABLE EACH AFTERNOON FOR STORMS
TO FIRE ALONG DECAYING OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION AND RENEWED CONVECTION CRESTING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD PRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT STARTING THE WHOLE PROCESS AGAIN.
TODAYS CONVECTION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME ERODING THE WARM
LAYER. AS SEEN ON THE 12Z SOUTHING, STRONG CAPPING WAS PRESENT
AT 700MB AND BELOW THAT. THUS STORMS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
OF DEVELOPING AND GETTING SOME DEPTH. EARLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIKELY WEAKEN THE CAP A BIT. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, IT WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN IF DEEPER CONVECTION IS
REALIZED AS AT THIS TIME, CAMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
ANYTHING NOW. THUS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SUBSEVERE. CERTAINLY, A 40 MPH GUST CAN'T BE
RULED OUT WITH AN OVERPERFORMING STRONG STORM.
OVERNIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE DECOUPLE IN A RAPIDLY
WORSENING ENVIRONMENT. SEVERAL CAMS DEPICT ONE OR MORE BOWING
SEGMENTS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MI TOWARDS US LATE TONIGHT.
THESE SEGMENTS TEND TO MOVE QUICKER THAN MODELING SUGGESTS BUT
WOULD STILL LIKELY NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 2AM OR SO.
BY THIS TIME IT LOOKS UNLIKELY BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE RIDGING AND SHORTWAVE PATTERN AND THUS MULTI-DAY MCS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY SEES MORE IMPRESSIVE HEATING
AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AS SUCH, MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF
CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR REGION
IN APRIL. THIS COMES HAND IN HAND WITH A 5-10KT INCREASE IN
SHEAR WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THESE ELEMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPER CELLULAR STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION OR FOR A QUICK REINVIGORATION OF ANY ONGOING
MCS/MCV LEFT OVER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. MULTI-DAY MCS PROPAGATION
FORECASTING IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BRING ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS, WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOWERING LCLS AND
MORE ROBUST CAPE AT THE SFC AND IN THE -20 TO -30C RANGE. SPC
HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK TO OUR REGION NORTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE AND A SLIGHT RISK NORTH OF I-70 ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING
FOR THIS SEEMS TO POINT MORE TOWARD THE 16Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AFTER 23Z. BOTH TIME PERIODS
CURRENTLY HAVE A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS.
STORMS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BUT THE PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN A LITTLE AS A MORE MEANINGFUL SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD END THE MULTI-DAY MCS EVENT BUT
COULD BRING ITS OWN RENEWED CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG THE DRAPING
COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR PREVAILS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS WELL. THIS WILL POSSIBLY BE BROKEN BY
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE FIRST OF WHICH LARGELY OCCURS BETWEEN 10-14Z WHEN THE
ONGOING LINE OF STORMS IN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON
THE REGION. BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE, IT WILL LIKELY BE A BROKEN
LINE OF DYING SHOWERS AND MAY FRACTURE FURTHER BEFORE EVEN
MAKING IT TO BVI OR ANYWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS COULD
BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN VIS TO AFFECTED PORTS AND LOWERING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ WHICH HAVE SEEN CIG
FORECASTS IMPROVE THIS CYCLE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
AS TEMPOS FOR FKL/DUJ, PROB30S AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG/AGC/LBE AND
ARE NOT MENTIONED FURTHER SOUTH.
AFTER THESE EARLY SHOWERS DECAY, WIDESPREAD VFR AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, WHEN STORMS BEGIN TO SPARK AGAIN.
THE OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING AND COVERAGE SOLUTIONS AT PLAY.
CURRENTLY STORMS ARE FAVORED LARGELY NORTH OF I-70 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY BEGINNING AGAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO I-80 FIRST. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN BRING
ADDITIONAL LINES OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION (HIGHEST CHANCES
AGAIN NORTH OF I-70) AFTER SUNSET. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
EVENING, BUT BOTH TIMEFRAMES LOOK TO SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUST THREATS. BOTH OF THESE POSSIBLE STORM TIMINGS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED AS PROB30 GROUPS FOR AFFECTED PORTS TRYING TO
FORECAST THE BEST TIME. THIS REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT THOUGH,
WITH STORM TIMING AND LOCATION BEING LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXISTENCE AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES TOMORROW MORNING FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TONIGHT.
MGW MAY FIND IT SELF FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MISS OUT ON ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY AND COULD BE VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. ZZV COULD ALSO LUCK OUT BUT HAS A HIGHER CHANCE THAN MGW
TO SEE STORMS TOMORROW EVENING. AGAIN, LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR BUT INSTANCES OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH NEAR SUNRISE AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BY EVENING
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND MAKE IT LIABLE FOR
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING TO FOSTER PERIODIC
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIP-DRIVEN RESTRICTIONS.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BEFORE CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGH AGAIN ON A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY, VFR WEATHER.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
TODAY, APRIL 14TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/AK
AVIATION...CERMAK/AK
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