148  
FXUS61 KPBZ 071729  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
129 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THAT AFTERNOON TO EVENING  
HOURS, ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT USHERS IN  
COOLER, DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE REGION REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH IS HELPING TO  
MAINTAIN THE FUNNELING OF MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT HIGHLIGHTED BY ABNORMALLY HIGH  
PWATS, WEAK SHEAR, AND WEAK FORCING. THE COMBINATION OF SLOWER  
STORM MOTION AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES (1-2"/HR POSSIBLE) MEANS  
THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT THE LACK OF  
CONCENTRATED FORCING/LIFT AND ENOUGH FORWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT  
THE THREAT FROM BEING WIDESPREAD AND PREVENT THE NEED FOR A  
FLOOD WATCH.  
 
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND LOSS OF INSTABILITY WITH HEATING SHOULD  
SEE CONVECTION DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER  
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE WILL REMAIN  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AMID WARM, MOIST ADVECTION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY  
WITHIN THE BROAD, WEAK ZONAL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO  
THE SOUTH. ENOUGH JET ASCENT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD CREATE A  
MOST FOCUSED AREA FOR CONVECTION NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, WHILE ALSO  
PROVIDING FASTER EASTWARD STORM MEAN FLOW. THE HUMID ENVIRONMENT  
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED OTHERWISE, MEANING ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF  
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT WILL POSE A LOCALIZED (BUT UNLIKELY  
WIDESPREAD) FLOOD THREAT.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TUESDAY AS A  
SERIES OF SERIES ACT TO FURTHER DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES. THESE WAVES WILL HELP SLOWLY PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (THOUGH  
MODEL TIMING DOES VARY ON ITS PASSAGE). EXPECT GREATER  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN  
STRONGER LIFTING FORCES FROM THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER JET. THERE  
IS TOO MUCH MODEL VARIANCES TO NOTE ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT,  
BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN REMNANT HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN  
POSSIBLE.  
 
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST AND LOWER AREA TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY READINGS WHILE  
ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT AND DEEPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO  
QUICKLY FOLLOW THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY, WITH  
ENOUGH JET ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS THURSDAY.  
 
AFTER ITS PASSAGE, THERE BECOMES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH  
PRESSURE UNDER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE AND LOWER  
HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH  
MOISTURE BUT LITTLE ORGANIZED FORCING. HAVE USED VCTS IN MOST  
CASES, ALTHOUGH EARLY TEMPOS WERE USED AT HLG AND LBE, WHERE  
IMPACTS ARE IMMINENT. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF IFR  
VISIBILITY IN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SHORT-  
FUSED UPDATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING  
OVERNIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS TRICKY, AND PARTIALLY  
DEPENDS ON WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS/ENSEMBLE  
GIVE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS FROM PIT/AGC ON NORTH, AND  
THIS IS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THE HOURS  
SURROUNDING SUNRISE.  
 
VFR WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT AN  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN  
START TO FIRE SHOWERS OFF DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED  
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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