721  
FXUS61 KPBZ 020559  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
1259 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND  
WARMER TEMPERATURES. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. COLDER  
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING  
THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT/CALM WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS.  
OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES.  
 
ECONUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE  
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY, PROMPTING WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW  
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE AREA TEMPERATURES INTO THE  
LOWER 50S FOR PGH AND SOUTH, WITH MID/UPPER 40S NORTH.  
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO YIELD AN INCREASE IN  
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER  
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN TAKES A  
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC  
DURING THE DAY. THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO TRACK NORTH  
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY,  
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SLATED TO CROSS OUR AREA  
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PASSAGE COULD PROVIDE RAIN AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT, AND POST-FRONTAL WIND GUSTS.  
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD  
KEEP BOTH SHOWER INTENSITY AND OVERALL QPF A BIT LOWER. ALSO,  
THE STORM TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE MIDWEEK LOW,  
HELPING TO TEMPER WIND GUSTS A BIT. STILL, WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH  
PEAK VALUES APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET POST-FROPA, WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER MAXIMA POSSIBLE.  
 
MOISTURE AND INVERSION LEVELS QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, AND LOW-  
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP ANY POST-FRONTAL LAKE  
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE MOST PART.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S RETURN FOR SATURDAY  
NIGHT AS WE DRY OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE  
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.  
 
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK, TROUGHING TRIES TO SET UP NEAR THE PACIFIC  
COAST, AS WELL AS IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN US PLAINS.  
DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND THESE FEATURES  
DIFFER IN THE MODELS, AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ENDS UP IN A SORT OF  
TRANSITION ZONE, WITH WSW FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SW FLOW BELOW.  
THE RESULTING MOISTURE INCREASE AND THE POSSIBLE APPROACH OF A WARM  
FRONT WILL REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING ON MONDAY.  
WHILE A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS POSSIBLE INITIALLY, THE BULK OF THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN. COLDER AIR AND WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION COULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE,  
WITH DRY WEATHER POTENTIALLY BY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE  
HIGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN  
CONTROL. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING.  
   
OUTLOOK.
 
 
RESTRICTIONS WITH SHRA LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING WITH THE NEXT  
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY  
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY  
SHORT TERM...CL  
LONG TERM...CL  
AVIATION...22  
 
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