497
FXUS61 KPBZ 191746
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1246 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED FLURRIES ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NWLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE, COMBINED WITH
UPPER FLOW STREAMING THROUGH THE BASE OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
QUEBEC, WILL SUPPORT BOTH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A FORECAST CAVEAT IS THE NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN
COLD ADVECTION, EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER;
DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY, LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
DEPTH SHOULD INHIBIT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD MODERATE
TOWARD THE AVERAGES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGING ENSUES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPPER OH WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MONDAY
AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE PLAINS AND DIGS UP
THE OHIO VALLEY AS IT WEAKENS. WITH COLDER AIR LOCKED NORTHWARD VIA
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET, AND WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE VAN OF
THE LOW, PRECIPITATION WITH THAT EVENT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
OUTLOOK
MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH OF KPIT LATER ON THU UNDER WITH A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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