881
FXUS61 KPBZ 041114
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
714 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. FROST IS A
POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS NORTH OF I-80 AND
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DRY PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS, A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THE FOG POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK FEATURES THE COLUMN SLOWING WARMING
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING. HIGH TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES WITH 70S COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE MAY HAVE A SHOT AT OUR SECOND
80F DEGREE DAY OF THE MONTH NEXT WEEKEND WITH PROBS CLIMBING
INTO THE 30 PERCENTILE RANGE AND THE FORECAST 50TH PERCENTILE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST RECENT RUNS.
FROST ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
CORNERS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN TUESDAY AT SUNRISE GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. PROBS OF MIN TEMPS LESS
THAN 37 DEGREES RANGE FROM 45-80% IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS,
WHILE THOSE NUMBERS DROP BETWEEN 20-30% AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THE MEAN FIRST FROST AT DUBOIS AIRPORT IS SEPTEMBER 25TH AND THE
/LATE/ 90TH PERCENTILE IS OCTOBER 9TH, THUS WE ARE ON THE LATER
SIDE OF CLIMO THIS YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR STRATUS HAS SPREAD NE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FROM NEAR MGW
THIS MORNING. NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW STRATUS, CLEAR SKIES
HAVE FAVORED FOG DEVELOPMENT IN LOW SPOTS AND ALONG THE AREA
RIVERS WHICH ARE INTERMITTENTLY BRINGING RESTRICTIONS TO
FKL/HLG. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT IN THE COMING HOUR OR
TWO, WITH MVFR STRATUS SCATTERING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MGW AND DUJ LIKELY HOLD ONTO RESTRICTIONS THE
LONGEST BUT, BY THIS AFTERNOON WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU ACROSS OUR PORTS BEFORE SUNRISE ON
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO FKL/DUJ IN THIS
ACTIVITY BUT THERE IS FAR LESS CERTAINTY IN RESTRICTIONS FURTHER
SOUTH.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN EVEN FURTHER NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND OUR SHORTWAVE TOMORROW.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COULD GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AK
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