357
FXUS61 KPBZ 250600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS
EXITED TO THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
2) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING, THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RECENT DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFIDED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. GIVEN THE RAINFALL OVER
THIS AREA FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE, THE AREA IS PRIMED FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOOD IMPACTS SHOULD ONE MATERIALIZE. TRENDS AND
PROBABILITIES ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 0.25" THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE CONCERNING FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD
CONCERNS. HAVE PUT THIS AREA IN AN HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL BUT
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE FROM IMPACTS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
EACH DAY RELYING ON THE DAYTIME HEATING TO INVIGORATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY MIDWEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PROMOTES OF GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONSIDERED LOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF PIT, BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS THIS MORNING.
EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING, AS
MIXING AND DRY ADVECTION BEGIN AFTER SUNRISE. A RETURN TO VFR
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS THE MIXING AND DRY
ADVECTION LIFT CIG HEIGHTS. THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, THOUGH HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC RAIN AND RESTRICTION
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF A LBE-ZZV LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR
RETURNS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/SKH
AVIATION...WM
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