322
FXUS61 KPBZ 042308
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARM TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK
2) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH A SEVERE THREAT
3) DRY AND WARM AGAIN NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
REGION HIGH AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES FEELING MORE LIKE SUMMER AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
PROMOTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOW DEW POINTS WITH
ONLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEEP MIXING INTO A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL KEEP IT FEELING COMFORTABLE AND HEAT INDICES
STRAYING LITTLE FROM AIR TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SHUNTS THE ECONUS RIDGE IN RESPONSE.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT SATURDAY MORNING AND
PROMOTE SOME BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS TOPPING
DEW POINTS OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED TO SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THEIR POTENTIAL SEVERITY. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE/SHOWERS AND THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE LATER ON IN THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS MODELED TO DECAY, WHICH IS
LIKELY, BUT THE DEGREE OF REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVERAGE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN (AND TYPICALLY POORLY MODELED) AND IT'S ALSO
LIKELY THAT WE HAVE SOME OF BOTH LINGERING SATURDAY MORNING. NBM
MEAN CLOUD COVERAGE SUPPORTS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT THE 10TH
PERCENTILE SUGGESTS AREAS OF CLEARING, AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION, IN WHICH THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD
HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING.
IN THE CASE THAT WE CAN RECOVER, A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL THREAT WILL ARISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATER ON. A BELT
OF ENHANCED WESTERLIES AT 500 MB WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA, TO 35-45 KNOTS.
ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPE BUMPS UP TO ~1100 J/KG, SO A SUFFICIENTLY
UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD EXIST FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC REMAINS UNCHANGED, AND ML & AI GUIDANCE HONES
IN ON OUR AREA AS WELL FOR A HEIGHTENED SEVERE RISK. WPC HAS ALSO
PLACED US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRIMARILY IN THE
CASE THAT URBAN AREAS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AMONG
ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST EXHIBITS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS DOES THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE. EITHER WAY, THIS POINTS TOWARD A RETURN OF
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. RIDGING THEN MAY BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR SOME
SUMMERTIME-LIKE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY, COVERAGE SHOULDN'T BE
WIDESPREAD OR BRING A NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED 30HR TAF
WINDOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS POSSIBLE AT ALL PORTS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU NEAR 5-8KFT
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK... DECAYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS VERY LOW. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
THEN INCREASES AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE. VIS AND LIGHTNING RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF TERMINALS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL
BE DISORGANIZED, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH SITES WILL BE
IMPACTED.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLB
AVIATION...AK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page