080  
FXUS61 KPBZ 241126  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
726 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH OF THE  
REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE  
BACK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
UPDATE..  
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF MINOR TWEAKS TO  
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND POPS BASED OF LATEST TRENDS AND RAPID UPDATE  
GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..  
 
PREVIOUS..  
ASCENT DRIVEN BY INCREASING SHORTWAVE SUPPORT, WARM  
ADVECTION, A LOW LEVEL JET, AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL  
SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. USING THE TRACK OF  
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS A GUIDE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL GENERALLY  
BE NORTH OF I-70.  
 
UNDER IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY  
MODERATE TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE  
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAIN  
AS A LARGE DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/SFC COLD FRONT, IS  
EXPECTED TO TRACK E TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES  
INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E AS THE ASSOCIATED ASCENT STRENGTHENS. THE  
COLD FRONT/SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS WRN PA IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS  
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR  
INCREASES, WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT  
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT  
OCCURS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO EXISTING CLOUD COVER.  
 
CURRENT FROPA TIMING IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING  
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE  
FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS A RIDGE  
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH RAIN  
CHANCES RETURNING. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A SWATH OF RAIN WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING WARM  
FRONT AND UPPER JET. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS  
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. VFR WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS  
FEATURE, WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY NORTH OF PIT BY AROUND 18Z. VFR IS  
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTS.  
 
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC AFTER FROPA ACROSS ALL  
TERMINALS AS A 40-50 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED ON MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FOLLOWING  
FROPA.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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