439
FXUS61 KPBZ 260740
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
340 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
2) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RIDGING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
DESPITE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON--DROPPING INTO
THE 20S AND 30S--WITH DIURNAL MIXING OF DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN EAST
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY. WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
CANADA, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM
FRONT, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OF 200-500J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATED BY THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. ADVANCING
MID-LVL DRY AIR WILL LIKELY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES BY LATE
MORNING TUESDAY.
A NEW DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH GIVEN BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS, WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTER
PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY OF OF RECEIVING MORE THAN QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS AROUND 40% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, COMPARED TO ROUGHLY 20-25% ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A COOLER START TO MAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST, PROMOTING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SEEM UNLIKELY;
HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR FROST AND/OR FREEZING CONDITIONS IS
INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN IFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. DRY
ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BRING GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS
NEAR DAWN. AREAWIDE VFR RETURN IS EXPECTED NEAR/AFTER 18Z,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS (AND LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS)
RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
TRENDS TOWARD GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...RACKLEY/AK
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