468
FXUS61 KPBZ 220610
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
210 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME TIMING DETAILS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN, MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, RETURNS TODAY INTO
SATURDAY
2) SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
3) WARMER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN WARM
ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND A SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION, WILL
RESULT IN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT, AND
A LOW LEVEL JET. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
SEE 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS ACROSS SE OH, THOUGH THIS AREA
COULD EXTEND FURTHER EAST. HREF PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10-30 PERCENT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHWARD, WITH RAINFALL RATES DIMINISHING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WITH THE WARM FRONT, THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY LIMITED. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OH, WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN FALLS. IF CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
INCREASES, A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
LOCAL FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WARM SECTOR. AN INITIAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED, BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY AS
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL, THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL.
SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY INTO
SATURDAY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT, WITH MAX GUSTS FROM
30-35 KT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT EXITS, AND A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER CROSSING
SHORTWAVE WILL RETURN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT IN
TUCKER COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, JUST SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER REMAINS AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING TOMORROW. WHILE SOME SURFACE
READINGS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, THE
ONLY TERMINAL THAT MAY BE IMPACTED THROUGH DAWN MIGHT BE MGW.
HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER LINGERS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH TOMORROW AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVERHEAD TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA.
ENSEMBLES MEMBERS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY SEE PRECIP
AS EARLY AS THE 18Z TO 20Z TIME PERIOD. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
MAY NOT SEE RAIN DEVELOP UNTIL 22Z TO 01Z.
THE ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE WOULD BE THE WINDS AS THE SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS WILL MAKE A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND MAY IMPACT THE ARRIVE OF PRECIP.
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS LBE AND DUJ.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY WITH A CROSSING WARM FRONT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
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