705
FXUS61 KPBZ 072319
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
719 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE NEAR
COSHOCTON AND UHRICHSVILLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL CONDITIONS WITH FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN.
2) RELATIVELY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND MID-TO-LATE WEEK. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN (PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO SOUTH OF I-70 AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WV
LOWLANDS). TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH A >95% CHANCE THAT A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE WILL OCCUR. MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A 10-20%
CHANCE IN GENERAL OF LOW TEMPERATURES HITTING 32F OR LOWER.
BEYOND THAT POINT, FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY
AREAWIDE AS A WARMING TRENDS BRINGS ABOVE-SEASONAL TEMPS BACK TO
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A TRANSITION OF EASTERN
TROUGHING TO EASTERN RIDGING THROUGH THURSDAY, FLIPPING
TEMPERATURES FROM NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THAT TIME. A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD YIELD
RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (10% OR LESS PROBABILITY OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH), AND COOLER SATURDAY TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EASTERN RIDGING THEN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PERCENTAGE
(<20%) OF ENSEMBLES SHOW ANY RIDGE FLATTENING OR COOLING
OCCURRING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WIND WILL EASE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
DECOUPLING. OVERNIGHT, THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DURING THE DAY, WIND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
FRESHENS UP TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST MAY NUDGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD FKL/DUJ WHICH COULD BRING CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO THE
NORTHERN PORTS.
AREAWIDE RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE PLAUSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
THAT WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE CONCERTED PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR OHZ057-058-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WVZ012-021-509>512.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/MILCAREK/88
AVIATION...FRAZIER/LUPO
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