721
FXUS61 KPBZ 020559
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1259 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT/CALM WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS.
OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT CONTINUES.
ECONUS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY, PROMPTING WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE AREA TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 50S FOR PGH AND SOUTH, WITH MID/UPPER 40S NORTH.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO YIELD AN INCREASE IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN TAKES A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC
DURING THE DAY. THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO TRACK NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SLATED TO CROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PASSAGE COULD PROVIDE RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG IT, AND POST-FRONTAL WIND GUSTS.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP BOTH SHOWER INTENSITY AND OVERALL QPF A BIT LOWER. ALSO,
THE STORM TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE MIDWEEK LOW,
HELPING TO TEMPER WIND GUSTS A BIT. STILL, WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH
PEAK VALUES APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET POST-FROPA, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER MAXIMA POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE AND INVERSION LEVELS QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, AND LOW-
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN KEEP ANY POST-FRONTAL LAKE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF OUR REGION FOR THE MOST PART.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S RETURN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AS WE DRY OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY FRONT.
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK, TROUGHING TRIES TO SET UP NEAR THE PACIFIC
COAST, AS WELL AS IN CENTRAL CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN US PLAINS.
DETAILS ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AROUND THESE FEATURES
DIFFER IN THE MODELS, AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ENDS UP IN A SORT OF
TRANSITION ZONE, WITH WSW FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SW FLOW BELOW.
THE RESULTING MOISTURE INCREASE AND THE POSSIBLE APPROACH OF A WARM
FRONT WILL REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING ON MONDAY.
WHILE A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS POSSIBLE INITIALLY, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN. COLDER AIR AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION COULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH DRY WEATHER POTENTIALLY BY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. LLWS LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK.
RESTRICTIONS WITH SHRA LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...22
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