392
FXUS61 KPBZ 250541
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DAYTIME HIGHS WERE INCREASED A TOUCH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY. A LOW
CHANCE OF ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY NEEDED FOR EASTERN TUCKER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) A NEEDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THAT COULD RUN THROUGH THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER IF IT DOESN'T RAIN WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A COOL START /MID AND UPPER 30S IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS/,
STRONG WARMING ONCE WE BREAK THE INVERSION WITH VALUES CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY LUNCH. WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE /DENOTED BY PWATS AROUND 0.40"/ COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS YESTERDAY, WE BOTTOMED OUT
IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S, SO KEPT THEM JUST A TOUCH ABOVE THAT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE WILL NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER.
PROBABILITIES OF TEMPS BELOW 36F ARE LESS THAN 10%. NBM 5TH
PERCENTILE STILL HAS VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. THAT SAID, CANAAN
VALLEY AND FROST POCKETS NEARBY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THAT
PERCENTILE, SO WE WILL SEE WHAT THEY GET TO THIS MORNING AND
MAKE A DECISION LATER TODAY. WE ALSO HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT
AREA IS A MICRO-CLIMATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 /SEPT
29-30TH/. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER. THE COLUMN WARMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNDAY
WHEN TEMPS GET BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAIN THERE THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NOR'EASTER. THIS WILL AFFECT
WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV MAINLY. EASTERN OHIO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO CONTINUE TO BASK IN A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, DAYTIMES HIGHS PULL BACK A FEW DEGREES
SUNDAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY.
DON'T STICK A FORK IN SUMMER WEATHER YET ALL YOU FALL
WEATHER FANS. A STRONG MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REAFFIRMS ITSELF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WITH H5
HEIGHTS PUSHING 590DM FROM THE GEFS AND EPS. DAYTIME HIGHS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
DAY 7. THERE IS A 30-50% ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV
OF ECLIPSING 80F.
THE ONLY TIME FRAME WHEN PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED IN THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST IS WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. AS OF NOW, POPS REMAIN IN
THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY. BASED ON THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE, ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. STATS FOR 12 HOURS QPF EXCEEDING 0.10" RESIDE IN THE
15-20% RANGE.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE /99%/ VFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE VALLEY FOG AT FKL THIS MORNING FROM
9Z-13Z. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG AT DAYBREAK OTHERWISE VFR
SUNDAY - VFR
MONDAY - VFR
TUESDAY - VFR
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ076.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ511>514.
DISCUSSION...MCMULLEN
AVIATION...MCMULLEN
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