478
FXUS61 KPBZ 010558
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
158 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FROST PLUS NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNINGS.
2) WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WHILE AREA TEMPERATURE GENERALLY REMAINS BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT WIND AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED MANY LOCATIONS, NOTABLY
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN WV, TO SEE TEMPERATURE FALLS INTO THE
30S THAT LIKELY WILL RESULT IN FROST DEVELOPMENT BY DAWN. PATCHY
FROST MAY STILL DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH WHERE
INCOMING CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO MATRICULATE. RISING
TEMPERATURE PLUS CLOUD COVER THEN MITIGATES FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS BY MID MORNING.
AFTER A CROSSING WAVE PROVIDES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAYTIME
RAIN SHOWERS (WITH NON-ZERO LIGHTNING PROBABILITY DUE TO COLD
AIR ALOFT), ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS DEVELOP FOR
THE REGION. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU AND LIMITED PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURE TO FALL
DRASTICALLY BELOW FREEZING (30-50% PROBABILITY OF < 30 DEGREE
MINT ONLY SPORADICALLY SEEN NEAR/NORTH OF I-80), HEADLINE
MESSAGING WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE AREAL HIGHLIGHTS WITH DAYTIME
ISSUANCE OF NEW AREA IMPACTS SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY FEATURES ADDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY SHOWER CHANCES WITH
PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEFORE ANOTHER NIGHT FEATURING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND DEVELOP. FROST AND NEAR TO SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURE ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WHICH MAY
PROMPT FUTURE HEADLINES. FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ALLEVIATE HEADING
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEYOND THE FEW DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE MODELS
SHARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN TO
REMAIN ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. HEIGHT RISES MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MAY STILL FEATURE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT
OFFERING LOWER PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT LOBE OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RE-ENTRENCHES DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALONG WITH
THE FAIRLY FREQUENT SHOTS OF RAIN (PROBABILITY OF A 24-HOUR
PERIOD WITH NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT MUCH MORE THAN 50%),
TEMPERATURE REMAINS WELL BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES SAVE FOR A
BRIEF APPROACH TO THOSE AVERAGES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
OVERALL RISK LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW TO VERY LOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ONE PATH TOWARD A HIGHER RISK IS IF TUESDAY'S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT TIMING IS MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT COULD
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING/DEWPOINT RISES, CREATING A MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK. THE OTHER IS IF STRONG-ENOUGH FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS AMID
A SLOWER MOVING SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO
PUSH 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO THE 1.5-2.5" RANGE,
CREATING A MARGINAL FLOOD RISK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF CLEARING HAS WORKED IN OVERHEAD WITH
LIGHT WIND, BUT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AREN'T FAR OFF TO OUR WEST AND
SHOULD ARRIVE JUST AROUND DAWN. RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE CLOUDS ARRIVE, BUT
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH LIGHT WIND AND THE
ENCROACHING CLOUDS.
MVFR AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
60-80% CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. ZZV AND MGW SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR WITH
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THERE. THUNDER PROBABILITY IS LOW
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT EVEN THEN, PROFILES ARE WELL-
SATURATED WITH LITTLE CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO EXPECT THAT IT
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE DAY. A WSHFT TO THE NW SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROPA ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR
CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOME
MODEST COLD ADVECTION.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PIT. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
THOUGH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS. VFR IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ021-509>513.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM/MLB
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