909
FXUS61 KPBZ 220539
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TODAY
2) CONTINUED WARM WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE 00Z PIT
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
600MB, SO THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO MOISTEN SOME BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE GROUND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM,
THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED (LESS THAN 500
J/KG ML CAPE.)
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF PIT DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD, BEFORE STALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA/SOUTHERN OH. QPF IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHER PA/OH
THURSDAY, AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY. UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT.
A QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS BY SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, AND A
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED (ML CAPE <500 J/KG) WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR AS WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW FAST
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MAINTAINED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH IF THE FASTER SCENARIOS WERE TO HAPPEN, POPS COULD BE
FURTHER REDUCED IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
READINGS GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE BEING SO DRY. MOST TERMINALS HAVE REPORTED A TRACE AT
BEST SO FAR AND VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z AT LEAST.
CHANCES OF CIG DROPS INCREASE BEHIND THE SHOWERS WITH ADDED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH IFR CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 70% AT
FKL/DUJ, WHILE CHANCES OF AT LEAST MVFR ELSEWHERE SIT AT 60%.
RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE MOST CONFINED TO THE 10Z TO 16Z WINDOW.
SCATTERING AND LIFTING IS FAVORED INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORIENT MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS FORECAST AROUND
10 TO 18 KTS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS BY 06Z
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...MILCAREK/SHALLENBERGER
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