383
FXUS61 KPBZ 030706
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
206 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST PERIOD
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON
2) WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS FRIDAY
3) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARLY MORNING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE, A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON THE
ROADWAYS COULD OCCUR NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE REAL IMPACT BEGINS
AFTER 12PM TODAY AS A LARGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE WEST. NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD PREP FOR
MODERATE SNOW BETWEEN 2PM AND 9PM, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
DUE TO TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE RIDGES OF
PRESTON/TUCKER COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS DUE TO UPSLOPING. ADVANCING DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW CHANCES LOW FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-70. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER FORMAL WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS (CLIMBING FORM 15:1 TO 20:1 THROUGHOUT THE EVENT), EXPECT
A VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE
MODERATE AMOUNTS, EASTERN TUCKER HAS A 30% CHANCES OF SEEING
WINTER STORM CRITERIA (HITTING THE 6-INCH MARK).
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, IF YOU ARE TRAVELING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WATCH FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW DUE TO MOUNTAIN "UPSLOPE"
EFFECTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE
ELSEWHERE, LEAVING THE REGION WITH DRIER, COLDER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW
ZERO. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR PLUS GUSTY WIND (MOST
AREAS HAVE A 60-80% OF MAX WIND GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY) RESULTS IN LOW WIND CHILL VALUES THAT
COULD NECESSITATE FUTURE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) SNOW AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
------------------------------------------------------------
MVFR CEILINGS ARE SETTLING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TO
START THE TAF PERIOD. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE LOWER
CEILINGS, A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS BRINGING A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL, THOUGH THIS SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING MGW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PERSISTENT SNOW AND
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT MGW DURING AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
AS WITH THE PRIOR PACKAGE, THIS IS REFLECTED IN TAFS WITH
PREVAILING SNOW MENTIONED AT MGW AND PROB30S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
FKL/DUJ WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY NEAR 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK/RACKLEY
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