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FXUS61 KPBZ 100546
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1246 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OVERALL MESSAGING FOR MID-WEEK LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT AND A LATE-WEEKEND FREEZING RAIN CONCERN
THAT RECENT TRENDS REDUCE LIKELIHOOD OF ITS OCCURRENCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE; LIGHT RAIN TURNS INTO LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
2) WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FAVORED SUNDAY WITH LOW TRACK
DICTATING RAIN VERSUS WINTRY MIX THREATS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASED WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FUEL
AREA TEMPERATURE TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY A MONTH. THE DEGREE OF WARMING IS MOST
CERTAIN NEAR AND SE OF PITTSBURGH WITH GREATER HIGH TEMPERATURE
POSSIBILITIES FOR EASTERN OH/NORTHWEST PA PENDING TIMING OF
INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.
THAT FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. ENOUGH
LIFT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXISTS TO
GENERATE RAIN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT MEAGER MOISTURE AND THE
PRIOR DRY AIR MASS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
(ONLY UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN WV HIGHER TERRAIN HAS PROBABILITY
GREATER THAN 20% FOR MORE THAN 0.10" OF RAIN). COLD ADVECTION
WITH RESIDUAL UPPER SUPPORT MAY MAINTAIN LIGHT POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AS RAIN/DRIZZLE TRANSITIONS TO SNOW/FLURRIES. THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD FOR FALLING PRECIPITATION TO BE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE (GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4AM) DUE
TO THE LACK OF ICE NUCLEI AS THE INVERSION SITS NEAR TO BELOW
-10 DEGREES C, BUT IMPACTS FROM THIS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. LAKE
ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING WESTERN PA AND THE WV
HIGHER TERRAIN THEN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" OF ACCUMULATION WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR 1-3" IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
BEYOND THE LOW PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, THE ONLY
POTENTIAL IMPACT ITEM IN THIS PERIOD IS RE-FREEZING OF LIQUID
SNOW MELT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ON ANY UNTREATED
SURFACES. FORTUNATELY, RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS THAT ENHANCE THIS
RISK ARE NOT EXPECTED AND KEEP THIS THREAT MORE AS A FOOTNOTE
THAN A LARGER CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATE WEEKEND
PERIOD AS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT; IT WILL BE FUELED BY SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT
ALOFT WITHIN AN NOTABLY LESS-AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
LOW MOVEMENT AROUND THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SHOWS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL WARMING AMID
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION (FAVORING
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70) FALLS AS RAIN WITH A SHORT-PERIOD OF SNOW
AT ONSET AMID WET-BULBING OF THE INITIALLY DRY ENVIRONMENT.
IMPACTS WOULD BE LOW AND ALL TIED TO THE DEGREE OF QPF AND ITS
INFLUENCE OF AREA SNOWPACK MELT AND CHANGES TO RIVER ICE
STABILITY (ICE JAMMING COULD OCCUR). THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CONTINGENT OF MODELS (ROUGHLY 10-15%) WITH EARLIER
PRECIPITATION ONSET AND/OR MORE STAUNCH COOLER SURFACE AIR THAT
RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NECESSITATING WINTER
HEADLINES NEAR THE WV TERRAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING
2) INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
3) DETERIORATION TO MVFR AND THEN IFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM W-E THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSES THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KT.
DETERIORATION TO MVFR, AND THEN IFR, IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED WITH THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. IFR/LOW
MVFR IS THEN EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AFTER
FROPA.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY IN
COLD NW FLOW AND CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCES. VFR IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM
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