259
FXUS61 KPBZ 101102
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A 5-9% CONDITIONAL INTENSITY (CIG1) TORNADO THREAT IS OUTLOOKED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA
REMAINS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH UPGRADE TO ENHANCED (3/5) CONTINGENT ON MORNING
CONVECTION'S IMPACT ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
3) WINDY AND COOLER LATE WEEK WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY, THOUGH DRY MID-LEVELS AND
LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD CENTERS ON A VIGOROUS SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING ASCENT IN WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING, WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50KT,
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. HODOGRAPHS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION,
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES, THOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES HOW EFFECTIVELY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
POTENTIAL. MORE OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MAY LIMIT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION AND THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA, WITH ANY
UPGRADE TO AN ENHANCED CONTINGENT ON MORNING CONVECTION AND
BETTER DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE, A CIG1 HATCHED
5-9% TORNADO THREAT WAS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.8 TO 1.5" ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. FLASH FLOODING RISK IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, USHERING IN A MARKEDLY COLDER AIR MASS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUST OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE RIDGES.
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RENEW
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY, BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE THE GREATER IMPACT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NBM QMD
PROBABILITIES OF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS (46+ MPH GUSTS) RANGE
FROM ABOUT 50-70% FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY MAY APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (58+ MPH).
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION WITH A WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVE. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF SHOWER THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER LAKE ERIE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ
AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH THE EXITING WAVE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
INCLUDED PREDOMINANT RAIN FOR THIS NEXT WAVE, WITH PROB30S FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE (SHOWALTER
INDICES -1.)
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WIND ARE LIKELY THURSDAY IN COLD NW
FLOW AND WITH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS, GUSTY WIND,
RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING COLD
FRONT. VFR RETURNS SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY
AVIATION...WM
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