183
FXUS61 KPBZ 280652
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
252 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS KY AND TN, LACKING INSTABILITY THIS FAR NORTH SHOULD
PREVENT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING, LEAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THROUGH LATE
MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MAXIMIZED CAPE AND
FRONTOGENETIC LIFT FOR HELP, BUT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED AS WARM AIR ALOFT CAPS THE ENVIRONMENT.
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY AND LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. LATEST
MODELS PROG THE SURFACE LOW CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN LIMIT
THUNDER CHANCES, BUT STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MID-AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL BOOST SURFACE-BASED CAPE INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. COUPLED WITH A 30-40KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR, SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORGANTOWN AREA DURING A WINDOW BETWEEN ROUGHLY
3PM-8PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, THOUGH AN
OVERLY AMBITIOUS STORM COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN THE
SHEAR PROFILE. SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTH OF I-70.
BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, A GOOD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 0.9" TO 1.5", WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN RECENT GREEN-UP AND DRIER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOSTLY QUEST WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES, THE MAIN
STORY FOR THAT PERIOD WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DEEP GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE COLD ADVECTION
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 37F PEAK AT
90% FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH SATURDAY MORNING, ,
BUT REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 45% EVERY WHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE
RIVER VALLEYS. FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRE-FRONTAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF GUSTY SHOWERS, REDUCED
VIS, AND MVFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.
BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z, HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATE CLOUD
COVERAGE TO DECREASE WITH MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE AS THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES. MIXING OF DRIER AIR WILL HELP ERODE CIG RESTRICTIONS
AT SEVERAL TERMINALS, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK TO VFR.
HOWEVER, DUJ MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE CIG RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LATE
EVENING WITH REMNANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE LINGERING.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY
AFTER 10Z, AS A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
TRACKS EAST. RAIN CHANCES, LOW CIGS (IFR), AND LOW VIS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW TERMINALS--PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF PIT--COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THURS WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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