676
FXUS61 KPBZ 010542
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
142 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, THEN DRY AND WARM
THURSDAY. SHOWERS RETURN WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
2) COOLER AND MAINLY DRY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD EXIT ALONG WITH ITS RESPECTIVE
PRECIP BY DAWN. OTHERWISE, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE EAST REMAINS IN PLACE BUT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TO
THE EAST- SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE NOW CLOSED LOW AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NOW OPENS AND EJECTS A
SHORTWAVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE REGION ENTERING THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL
NOT BE IMPACTFUL AS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN LESSING OR HOLDING ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.50 ON TOTAL RAINFALL. THE NBM
SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO CONCERNING AS THE
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING ONLY 0.50" WILL BE BETWEEN 30% AND
50% ACROSS THE AREA. AS WELL, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MINIMAL AS EVEN THE NBM
GIVES A 10% CHANCE OF EVEN REACHING 500 J/KG OF SB CAPE. EVEN
THE PROB THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD IS ONLY BETWEEN 10% TO 15%.
THUS, NOTHING IS WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS THE NE CONUS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
AREAS SOUTH OF PIT ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR FKL AND
DUJ BUT THIS ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD BE EXITING BY DAWN. CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP FOG OUT OF THE AREA FOR JUST ABOUT ALL THE
TERMINALS AS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE VFR. HOWEVER, ZZV
AND MGW HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING SOME FOG AND HAVE USED A
TEMPO TO COVER THIS THROUGH 10Z.
HEADING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH DECENT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY. EXIT WINDS W TO BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY, WITH PROLONGED
VFR FORECAST THEREAFTER, OUTSIDE OF FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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