215
FXUS61 KPBZ 281302
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
802 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE IS ALSO A FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALBERTA CLIPPER EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES
2) FREEZING RAIN A POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FIRST MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING
LATE TONIGHT AND IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE MAY BE AN
ISSUE TO PROPERLY MELT THE HYDROMETEORS COMPLETELY. HOWEVER, A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A STRONG WARM LAYER. TO ADD TO THE
CONFIDENCE THE HREF IS SHOWING AROUND A 60% TO 70% PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 0.01 OF FREEZING RAIN. WHILE SOME OF THE MAIN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLACE THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW A BIT
FURTHER NORTH, THE HREF PLACES IT ALONG I-70. EVEN A PROBABILITY
OF A LIGHT GLAZE WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES HERE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE WARM NOSE AND THE TRANSITION AREA, THIS HAS
BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HWO AND WILL NEED MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF AN SPS OR WSW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF
I-70 AND TRACK INTO WV AND VA. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL SNOW
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT A SECOND WAVE WILL
FOLLOW IN BEHIND AND LIFT NORTH A BIT AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS
WILL BRING A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH
THE TRACK AS THE NBM PROVIDES A 40% TO 50% PROB OF EXCEEDING A
0.01 OF FREEZING RAIN. THE BETTER CHANCE AT THIS POINT SEEMS TO
BE EAST OF THE LAURELS. THIS THREAT HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE
HWO AND WILL NEED MONITORED FOR SHIFTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSISTENT LONG-RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
SHIFT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MID-MARCH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WILL GENERATE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NUMEROUS
WESTERN DISTURBANCES.
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AXIS COULD
EXTEND HIGH WATER ISSUES INTO OHIO AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER NEGLIGIBLE AND COULD
ACCOMPANY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EARLY MARCH. THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ESCALATE IF A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
(FROM WARM, MOIST AIR) AND HIGH WIND SHEAR NEAR OUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LLWS ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH A SW WIND AT 2KFT AROUND 40KT. THE LLWS SHOULD
END BY 14Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET EXITS.
FROPA WILL ALSO OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THAT TIME, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM THE S TO THE WNW AFTER FROPA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST
MVFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND
SNOW. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RESTRICTION AND A WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM/LUPO
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