733
FXUS61 KPBZ 251056
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
656 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND THE WEATHER STAYS DRY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS ITS SWAY, WITH LITTLE NEW TO WRITE
TODAY. A MULTI-DAY ROUTINE OF SUN AND CALM; A DRY AND QUIET,
UNEVENTFUL BALM. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT, THE SKIES ARE CLEAR. A
MILD AND TRANQUIL ATMOSPHERE.
BUT COME LATE WEEK, THERE BEGINS A CHANGE. FOR EXACT SCENARIOS,
THERE IS A RANGE. ENSEMBLES DIVERGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OUTCOME ONLY SLIGHT. TO OUR NORTH AROUND THEN
A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS, BRINGING 30% OR LESS CHANCE OF WET
GRASS. A STRONGER TROUGH BY MONDAY MAY COME ABOUT, THOUGH EXACT
TIMING FOR RAIN REMAINS IN DOUBT. ONSET OF MOISTURE SHIFTS LATER
EACH DAY, KEEPING THE PLEASANT WEATHER IN PLAY. MORE CERTAINTY
WILL COME IN TIME, TO BE SURE; FOR NOW THE FINER DETAILS REMAIN
OBSCURE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD SAVE FOR LOW PROBABILITY RIVER
VALLEY FOG RESULTING IN MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY RIGHT AFTER TAF
ISSUANCE (12Z-13Z) AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING (11Z-13Z). WIND
REMAINS LIGHT WITH PASSING CIRRUS LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ENSURES VFR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY WITH RISING TEMPERATURE AND INCREASING CIRRUS REDUCING
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG RISK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page