419
FXUS61 KPBZ 061726
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1226 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RAIN RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN,
FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS, ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR I-80.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
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BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
AND QUIET TODAY. WITH DIURNAL MIXING, EXPECT WIND GUSTS EAST OF
PITTSBURGH TO INCREASE BETWEEN 20-25MPH WITH AN EXITING TROUGH.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PROMPTING COLD ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR AVERAGE,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED WITH INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS
- DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
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PROBABILITY OF RAIN INCREASES AFTER 12PM FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A HIGH VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, A 50KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
EXTEND NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NEW YORK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERED LOW GIVEN
ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION; CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN 20-50J/KG.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY
WITH INCREASE SUBSIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD; UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
- MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES
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THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TO THE MS VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC, A LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY. POPS TREND UPWARD AFTER
SUNRISE AS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NEERLY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, TEMPERATURES FALL, FLOW BECOMES NERLY AND THEN NWERLY AND
RAIN BEGINS TO MIX WITH AND THEN TURN TO SNOW.
AS FLOW TURNS, 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY
SETTLING AROUND -8 TO -10C. CURRENT LAKE ERIE SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
13-14C WILL ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT CREATION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT NWERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ALONG OUR EASTERN RIDGES. BOTH OF
THESE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. CURRENT MODELS PROG THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AT LEAST ONE MORE INTENSE LAKE BAND. AT THIS TIME THE
SPATIAL LOCATION AND DURATION OF THIS OR OTHER BANDS IS VERY LOW
PREDICTABILITY BUT THE PERSISTENT SIGNAL ITSELF POINTS TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL TOTALS. NBM
PROBABILITIES HAVE WAVERED A LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT
SHOW A MORE PERSISTENT SIGNAL (40-50% PROBABILITIES) FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE RIDGES WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED EFFECTS WILL BE AT THEIR GREATEST.
ANY POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COULD
LEAD TO ENHANCEMENTS OF THIS PATTERN AND PROLONGED SNOW BUT AT
THIS TIME ENSEMBLES PROG RISING HEIGHTS AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND A SWITCH TO MORE ZONAL FLOW THAT WOULD
MEAN A SHUTOFF OF MORE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR REGION AND
A SHIFT NORTHWARD OF SNOWFALL. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF I-80 COULD SEE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 30S, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS PERHAPS NOT CRACKING FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 40S AND THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 50 FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DIURNAL MIXING OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL ALLOW WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN FAR
MORE TAME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH MOST IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE (PEAK GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS). WINDS THEN SETTLE AGAIN IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING.
OUTLOOK
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY WINDS, AND RESTRICTIONS ALONG
WITH IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A 50-70% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR IFR.
FOR WINDS, ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PEAK GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE ON SATURDAY, BUT THE
REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS BOTH ARE FORECAST TO RETURN SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST
WINTRY PRECIPITATION OF THE SEASON) AS A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...CERMAK/MLB/AK
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