799
FXUS61 KPBZ 250657
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
257 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH PASSING
COLD FRONT TODAY
2) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
3) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO EASTERN OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. RAINFALL RATES REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH PER HOUR. A FEW POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN OHIO, PRODUCING RATES
BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 INCHES PER HOUR. LIMITED FORCING AND
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
THE PITTSBURGH AREA AFTER DAWN.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 11AM AND 1PM TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH, AS SBCAPE VALUES RISE TO BETWEEN 200 AND 500J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 2PM AND 6PM AS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTY
BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RIDGING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, TRACKING NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE
THE DEGREE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND HEATING, A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN LATE WEEK INTO EARLY MAY AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE PATTERN
MAY REINTRODUCE AT LEAST FROST HEADLINES, WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE 30S. HOWEVER, SEVERAL FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
PARTICULARLY CLOUD COVERAGE AND WIND, BOTH WHICH PLAY A KEY
ROLE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FROST DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL NEAR 12Z AS THE RAINFALL EVENTUALLY LOWERS CEILINGS INTO
MVFR RANGE. MORE STRATIFORM SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY END BY 15Z,
WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THEREAFTER. USED
PROB30 GROUPS TO COVER THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON.
WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY COLLAPSING SOUTH AND REFORMING OVER VA,
A PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH MAY KEEP CEILINGS AT LOWER
MVFR OR EVEN IFR ESPECIALLY AT FKL/DUJ SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DESPITE PRECIPITATION ENDING. PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CEILINGS
CLIMB INTO THE 30-60% RANGE DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN AT THOSE
LEVELS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS LIKE
KPIT, IFR CEILING PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, AND MVFR IS MOST
LIKELY.
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT, IMPROVING ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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