490
FXUS61 KPBZ 241739
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INCREASES RAIN/ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING
2) RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
3) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. OVER THE PAST 12HRS, HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH BETWEEN 8PM
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA ONLY RECEIVED AN
INCH OF RAIN IN 48 HOURS, THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS CONSIDERED
LOW. CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RISE WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIP, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT WATER WILL REACH OR
EXCEED BANKFULL LEVELS. AS A RESULT, NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WITH SATURATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR A BULK OF THE TIME
PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO CONSIDERED LOW BUT NOT ZERO. IF A THUNDERSTORM DOES
EVOLVE, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN 6PM AND 11PM SOUTH OF
I-80.
RAIN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 2AM MONDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS AND MID-LVL DRY AIR ADVANCES FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EARLY MONDAY, THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RECENT DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFIDED TO AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. AT THIS TIME, THE
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY MIDWEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PROMOTES OF GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONSIDERED LOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE
HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVES IN THIS EVENING AROUND 00Z. REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS PACKAGE AS
THUNDER PROBS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH A FEW RUMBLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE, EXPECT MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY, BECOMING
NORTHERLY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA,
KEEPING DAILY RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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