333
FXUS61 KPBZ 072349
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
749 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PASSING TROUGH COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY IN
EASTERN OHIO
2) THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING INCREASE MID-WEEK;
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES NOTED
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES, ALTHOUGH RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN NEAR COLUMBUS AND CINCINNATI AREAS.
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SINGLE CELL STORMS COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS
ZANESVILLE AND COSHOCTON REGION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. FORECAST SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1200-1900J/KG SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACROSS NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WARM AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (AROUND 700MB) COULD INHIBIT UPDRAFT
GROWTH, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COMBINATION OF A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS, ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND WEAKEN RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A RANGE OF
HAZARDS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES,
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES A 30-40%
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY THAT WILL NEED TO BE HEAVILY
MONITORED.
THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH
STARTING TUESDAY, WITH BOTH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
RECORD-HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
COOLING PRECIP COULD ULTIMATE REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING
THESE VALUES, ESPECIALLY THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAF PERIOD WHILE THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WIND WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT TO 5 KNOTS OR
LESS AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY BENEATH SOME CONTINUING CIRRUS.
OVERNIGHT, THE LIGHT WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE EAST
THEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED
AROUND 5-10KTS DURING THE DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK... A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY FOR
ZZV LATE MONDAY EVENING. DAILY THUNDERSTORM AND RESTRICTION
CHANCES THEN RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MLB/LUPO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page