096
FXUS61 KPBZ 260628
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
228 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH
AND EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY
2) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH ON PITTSBURGH ON
TUESDAY. HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN TUCKER COUNTY AND
COULD PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROUGH TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED FLOODING FORM
TRAINING CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS THE WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG I-70 AND
SOUTH. THE NBM HAS UPPED PROBABILITIES OF 60% TO 70% OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY MIDWEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A TROUGH. AS A RESULT, COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONSIDERED
LOW THURSDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. COINCIDENTALLY, SOME
MID-LEVEL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. DON'T ANTICIPATE
THAT THIS WILL BRING ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS, BUT SEPARATELY,
SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THAT MAY
BRING RESTRICTIONS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT MGW. DESPITE
LIGHT WIND, THINK THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND LOWER
DEW POINTS ELSEWHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT TEMPOS IN FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF PIT
WHERE PROBABILITY IS >40%, THOUGH TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
THE DEVELOPING STRATUS LIMITING RADIATING. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING
MENTION OF FOG WITH TEMPO TO IFR AT MGW WHERE THE DEW POINT IS
HIGHER AND SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR AND FREE OF STRATUS.
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST ON TUESDAY WITH SCT STRATOCU. MGW HAS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ~30-40% TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MORNING HOURS IN PROXIMITY TO A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR VFR,
ESPECIALLY AS MIXING LIFTS THE CLOUD BASES, SO HAVE WORKED MORE
IN THAT DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND RETURNS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG WITH IT. PRECIP WILL BE
FIRST TO ARRIVE TO MGW/ZZV THEN SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. THINK
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE FOR ALL BUT FKL/DUJ WITH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE
FRONT LIFTS. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
THE FRONT WILL KICK TO THE SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY RETURNING AREAWIDE VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MLB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page