816
FXUS61 KPBZ 171141
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE REGION TODAY,
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. THAT WARMING TREND CONTINUES STRAIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THIS WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OR
BETTER EACH DAY FOR HIGH TEMPS REACHING 60 DEGREES, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SOUTH OF I-80. IN FACT, THOSE PROBABILITIES
ACTUALLY PEAK CLOSER TO 80-90 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S, WHICH IS SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. REGARDING TEMPERATURE RECORDS, MOST OF
THE RECORD HIGHS AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S OR
70S EACH DAY THIS WEEK, AND THUS APPEAR TO BE SAFE AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, SEVERAL SITES DO APPEAR AT RISK OF BREAKING DAILY
RECORDS FOR WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, TODAY WILL BE DRY UNDER MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WEAKENS/FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND BRINGS RAIN
SHOWERS IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN FOLLOWS ON ITS HEELS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SECOND
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE FIRST, REINFORCING UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WITH THIS LATTER SYSTEM AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK, BUT
NON-ZERO, ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN UNSETTLED, DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH. A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM SHOULD START AS RAIN, BUT A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THAT SAID,
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING
AND INTENSITY DETAILS THIS FAR OUT, AND IT IS CERTAINLY TOO
EARLY TO BEGIN NARROWING IN ON ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS NORTH AND WEST
2) EVENTUAL SLOW RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL BUT
FKL/DUJ
------------------------------------------------------------
THE TAF PERIOD OPENS WITH A JUMBLE OF LIFR IN THE NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS FKL/DUJ AND MEETING AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT ZZV. FURTHER
SOUTH A THIN LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT VIS
RESTRICTIONS IN BR EXIST BEFORE A TRANSITION TO VFR ACROSS
PIT/AGC/LBE.
MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT OF AFFECTED PORTS HERE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND YIELD A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
VFR. OUT WEST, ZZV WILL HAVE A TOUGHER HILL TO CLIMB AND
PROGRESS MAY BE VERY SLOW MUCH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT ONCE
THINGS BEGIN TO SCATTER THEN VFR WILL LIKELY TAKE HOLD OUT THERE
AS WELL. FKL/DUJ WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILARLY SLOW RISES OUT OF FG
THIS MORNING BUT MARKED IMPROVEMENT LIKELY DOESN'T ARRIVE TO
THIS EVENING.
WIND REMAINS LIGHT, GENERALLY BACKING TO THE SSE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RETURN RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/CL/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...RACKLEY/AK
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