103
FXUS61 KPBZ 092317
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
717 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURE CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
RETURNS BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
- PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT
---------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL ENSURE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY, WITH MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE MID-70S.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ONCE
AGAIN LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY RIVER
FOG. AREA TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
- POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS
--------------------------------------------------------------
UPPER TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEEK.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY BOOST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND;
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. LIMITED CLOUD
COVER WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT AS
CHANCES FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING PERSIST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE THIS
WEEKEND
------------------------------------------------------------------
DRY WEATHER IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW-END RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT 10% OR LESS.
AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND
LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT. ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS
PERHAPS STREAMING NEAR ZZV, THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE SKC. ONCE
AGAIN CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHES OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CU RULE
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A LIKELY TOO DRY PROFILE TO
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD, BUT VFR REMAINS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY, THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...MLB
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