649  
FXUS61 KPBZ 171906  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
306 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF  
PITTSBURGH, THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  
WE GOT A REPORT OF GRAUPEL, WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE  
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT.  
 
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF  
PITTSBURGH TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT SWING THROUGH THE AREA. STILL EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE  
NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 THANKS TO BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH, AS  
WELL AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS THE COLUMN COOLS, SNOW WILL BEGIN  
TO MIX IN THIS EVENING, WITH THE CHANGEOVER CONTINUING AS  
OVERALL COVERAGE STARTS TO TAPER. CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING  
ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN CWA BORDER, BUT OVERALL, A STILL WARM  
SURFACE AND LACK OF GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH CONDITIONS WILL RULE OUT  
ANY ACCUMULATION OF NOTE.  
 
AWAY FROM THE PRECIPITATION, CLEARING SKY AND SLACKENING WIND  
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TO AROUND FREEZING. HAVE  
ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS AS APPROPRIATE  
ACCORDING TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SEVERAL COUNTIES NORTH OF  
PITTSBURGH HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THESE HEADLINES, AS CLOUDS AND  
WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND  
ALSO PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION. FOREST/JEFFERSON/INDIANA WERE  
INCLUDED IN A FREEZE WARNING GIVEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO  
AROUND 32, DESPITE THE LIMITING FACTORS MENTIONED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ACROSS THE FAR  
NORTH, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
ARRIVES, BUT LINGERING COLD ADVECTION/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP  
MANY LOCATIONS FROM REACHING 50 DEGREES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE  
CHILLY ONCE AGAIN, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST.  
 
AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE 850MB THERMAL  
TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A FLATTENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL  
HELP PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S, ALTHOUGH VALUES  
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND THE FIRST RAINDROPS MAY  
ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO BY SUNSET AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN  
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
REINFORCE THE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS IT  
SWINGS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES OFF  
ONCE AGAIN, AND POSSIBLY ALLOW ANOTHER MIX WITH SNOW IN SOME  
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBZERO  
850MB TEMPERATURES.  
 
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON, ALTHOUGH THE  
OUR AREA MAY BE SKIMMED BY A TROUGH AS IT CROSSED CANADA,  
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP MOISTURE FROM LAKE ERIE  
AND PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR FKL AND DUJ INTO THE  
EVENING. WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT,  
MIXING WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD BASE TO STAY ABOVE 3,000FT AND  
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH A FRI  
NIGHT/SAT COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.  
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-  
048>050-057>059-068-069.  
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ009-016-  
023-074-076.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ020-021-  
029-031-073-075.  
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-  
012-510>514.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ021-509.  
 

 
 

 
 
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