111
FXUS61 KPBZ 101221
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
821 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
ISAIAS TRACKS NORTH. UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION,
STARTING TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. EXPECT RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS; WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HURRICANE ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AS THE CENTER TRACKED NORTH INTO ALABAMA. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, WITH THE LOW CENTER
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF OF MORGANTOWN,WV LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
THE INITIAL IMPACTS FROM THE WIND AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT,BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD 40-50KTS IS FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SUPPORTING
GUSTY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE RIDGES. WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST VIRGINIA RIDGES FROM
8PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11AM SUNDAY AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF
PENNSYLVANIA FROM 8PM TONIGHT THROUGH 2PM SUNDAY, WIND GUSTS
RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
AND FALLING TREE LIMBS MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATE. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO DUE TO ENHANCED JET DYNAMICS, WHILE
AREAS NEAR PITTSBURGH AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE 0.5-1.0 INCHES. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN A RAIN SHADOW BETWEEN PITTSBURGH AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3AM AND 4PM SUNDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
ALOFT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY LIGHTNING
THAT DEVELOPS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 11AM AND 3PM
SUNDAY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT, WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
A PASSING COLD FRONT MAY RETURN GUSTY SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING,
AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. UPPER TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AS THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
THE PROBABILITY OF CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS INCREASES BETWEEN
03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY AS RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST CIGS QUICKLY
DROPPING TO LOW-MVFR OR HIGH-IFR AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS
AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM A STRONG
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. LBE AND MGW ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGHER CEILINGS DUE TO THE ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS COMING OFF
THE RIDGE-LINE. WINDS GUSTS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 20KTS TO
30KTS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z.
OUTLOOK...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND VENTURES EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM, SOUTHWEST FLOW
DISSOLVING ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CIGS.
A COLD FRONT MAY RETURN RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/LUPO
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