030
FXUS61 KRLX 010840
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
440 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY AND WARMER TODAY.
2.) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
CONSIDERABLY. AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR ALL BUT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT HOWEVER, THAT SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY, MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN, THIS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH, LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AFTER THE RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE
MOUNTAINS DISSIPATES, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG DISSIPATING THIS MORNING
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF IFR FRIDAY. IFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WV
AND SOUTHWESTERN VA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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