075
FXUS61 KRLX 130717
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2021
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH, CHANCES INCREASE AREA WIDE TONIGHT.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING A SHOWERY AND COOL
PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...
SHOWERS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS ENDING THIS MORNING. BRIEF, VERY
BRIEF, RIDGING ALOFT REPLACES THE UPPER LOW THAT DEPARTED FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL
WITH WEAK MOMENTS OF PVA PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS
18Z-00Z WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LOW PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. POP COVERAGE INCREASES TOWARDS
THE 12Z TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL F-GEN STRENGTHENS. NAM LOOKS
LIKE NORTHERN OUTLIER, AND WILL GO WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE
ARW/NMM/HREF CENTERED CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS. NOT A GREAT FEED
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY ALSO A NON FACTOR, SO NO
THUNDER IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, WHICH MAY ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH CURRENT
FORECAST AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTHEAST WV. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS ARE
PUSHING THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.
A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALONG THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY DIPS SOUTHWARD, CLOSER TO THE AREA, AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST. A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW COULD BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE NIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AS TEMPERATURES MAY DIP LOW ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE THESE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE NORTHEAST INTO
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A
QUICK DRIER PERIOD BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES PICK UP YET AGAIN AS
MODELS INDICATE EITHER ANOTHER UPPER LOW OR UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK,
WITH THE GFS SLOWER TO BRING IT THROUGH THAN THE CANADIAN AND
ECMWF. THE MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGIES
IN WHICH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP SEPARATED AS THE FEATURE
MOVES IN WHILE THE GFS MERGES THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
AS IT FINALLY BRINGS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING MOVES IN, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...
SHOWERS ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER
FOR THE CKB AND EKN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CKB COULD GET INTO LATE
FOG ONCE THE RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSOLVES AWAY, AND
TAKE VISIBILITIES TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS A STRIPE OF VALLEY FOG FROM NICHOLAS COUNTY-POINT
PLEASANT 3I2-ATHENS UNI WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES. THIS SHOULD STAY
OUT OF CRW/PKB/HTS FOR THE MOST PART, BUT BRIEF LATE MVFR IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SUN COMES UP.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH TIME.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SW TO NE TOWARDS THE 06Z
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND BEYOND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY
MAY BE OF GREATER COVERAGE THAN TAFS INDICATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 04/13/21
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M M L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26/CG
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...26
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