347
FXUS61 KRLX 230032
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
832 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRIMMED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO LOCATIONS WHICH ARE STILL SEEING
TRAINING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A FINAL
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. UPDATED 00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
AS OF 333 PM MONDAY...
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW INCREASING PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS N/NW OF A RATHER ROBUST SFC LOW FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WHERE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OVERNIGHT SCENARIO.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A POTENT SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BRINGS
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, AS WELL
AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
- 2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMID INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAK WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
STILL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL CURVATURE, BUT STORMS HAVE LARGELY
GROWN INTO A MESSY LINE LESSENING THE THREAT FOR ANY TORNADIC
SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. WILL STILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY EXITS TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
TRAINING CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIKEWISE, THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY AND PERHAPS MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
WAVE. OVERALL, 18Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT VS THE VERY
AGGRESSIVE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT GIVEN THE
LOCALLY COMPROMISED NATURE OF SOILS FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL BE LIMITED OR ABSENT.
AS OF 333 PM MONDAY...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ALBEIT LOWER, STILL CONTINUES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
REDEVELOPMENT AND/OR STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION IN OH AND KY.
AS THIS MOVES BACK INTO MUCH OF THE CWA, THERE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS FOR THE HYDRO ASPECT, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION, ESPECIALLY WHERE EARLIER ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 0.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN. AS WE SHIFT
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE N
AND NW TREND TO THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOST CAMS NOW BRING THIS LOW ALONG/SOUTH OF OUT SOUTHERN CWA BORDER,
BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. SOLUTIONS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 3 OR 4 INCHES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
MUCH OF THIS HAS THE CHANCE TO FALL OVER ALREADY ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE OVERNIGHT FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EXISTS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64 AND ALONG/EAST OF I-79.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA WITH
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD
COURTESY OF A MEANDERING FRONT THAT WILL SETUP (MORE OR LESS) EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO A
DEGREE, WITH PERIODIC MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
AT TIMES ENHANCING RAINFALL ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (LATE WEEKEND) AS A
STOUT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT
DEVELOPING IFR CEILINGS AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FOG, ESPECIALLY
WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR BKW AND
PERHAPS CRW AND EKN AS A MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITS THE
AREA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
BY THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-8KTS POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OF 15-20KT ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACT FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT
FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY ALSO VARY FROM THE FORECAST. THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A SHIELD OF RAIN N/NW OF THE SFC LOW
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH VARYING LOCATIONS AND
TIMING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H L H H H M M M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L M M H M L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M L L L M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-018-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JRM/JP
AVIATION...JP
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