042
FXUS61 KRLX 292325
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
725 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOW THAT THE COLD WEEKEND MORNINGS HAVE PASSED, WE WILL NOT
HAVE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO FREEZING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MONDAY HAS
INCREASED, AS HAS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AFTER THE FREEZING START THIS MORNING, THE CORRESPONDING
LOW DEW POINTS CARRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S, EVEN AROUND 70 LOWLANDS, 50S MOUNTAINS,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AMID
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS, FIRE DANGER IS ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S, AND
INTO LOWER 80S, BY TUESDAY.
- 3) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EMERGES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, AND ALSO MAINLY LATE-DAY
THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WAS ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
MILDER AIR WHILE PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS
PROPELLED TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S, EVEN AROUND 70 FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS, AND 50S MOUNTAINS. VERY LOW DEW
POINTS COMING OUT OF THE FREEZING START THIS MORNING CARRY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AFTER THE MID-MORNING BUMP.
KEEPING DEW POINTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE CENTRAL
GUIDANCE PROBABILISTIC ENVELOP WAS SO FAR WORKING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH PERCENTAGES IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OWING
TO THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH YIELDING GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH, AND DRY FUELS, THIS ELEVATES FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEST-NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
THIS WEEK, AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE AREA NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST DRIFTING EAST, AND THEN PUTTING DOWN
ANCHOR OVER THE CLASSIC BERMUDA HIGH POSITION, AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, IN TANDEM WITH THE HIGH HEIGHTS, UP
AROUND 576 DAM, TEMPERATURES ARE PROPELLED ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
AFTER A COLD START, AND AGAIN ON MONDAY LEVELED OFF BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER, AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL AT LEAST APPROACH RECORD HIGHS ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER, HTS AND PKB, ON TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS BECOME A BIT SAFER
AFTER THAT, AS THEY RISE WHILE SYSTEMS LEVEL OFF FORECAST HIGHS
FOR THE MOST PART FROM MIDWEEK ON, ALTHOUGH A PAIR OF SOFTER
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED ON SATURDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, ESPECIALLY DURING MIDWEEK AND THEN AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
BENEATH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW RESULT IN
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THEN AGAIN
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND
LIGHT, WITH MINIMAL CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
A COLD FRONT BRINGS A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, AS IT SETTLES INTO THE AREA NOTWITHSTANDING THE
GFS SOLUTION, WHICH STIFF-ARMS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
EITHER WAY, THE FRONT GETS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH, AS A WARM
FRONT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL, GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO
35 KT RANGE, THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
GENERATES CAPE TO 1500-2500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS.
IN THE WARM SOUP LEFT BEHIND BY THE RETREATING FRONT, POPS
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THURSDAY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEK, AND NATURALLY INCLUDE THUNDER MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY WHISK BY LATE THURSDAY,
ENHANCING THESE PROBABILITIES A BIT FURTHER.
MODELS SOMEWHAT CONCUR ON A MORE AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WITH MORE UMPH SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, THE KEYWORD BEING
SOMETIME AS TIMING IS WHERE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THIS.
WHILE NOT YET QUITE RESOLVED IN THE FORECAST, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SHOULD PEAK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY IF CONCURRENT WITH PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A PERIOD OF LLWS EXPECTED, GENERALLY
05Z THROUGH 12Z ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KBKW.
OTHERWISE, -SHRA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, MAINLY AFTER
12Z. LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST, GENERALLY AFTER 15Z. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 20Z.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
TYPICALLY IN THE TEENS, GENERALLY 16Z THROUGH 22Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CESSATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, DEPENDING UPON WHEN GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY MAY VARY, AND SHOWERS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY TO MVFR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/30/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WITH THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR MAINLY LATE-DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...SL/TRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page