459
FXUS61 KRLX 041001
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
601 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR CYCLE. 12Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRAVERSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT DAYTIME SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO PRIMARILY IN AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS AMID WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR ERIE,
PA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH
VALLEY FOG HAVING ALREADY QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS AND INTO THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS (SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER). WHILE DO EXPECT A BIT MORE EXPANSION OF FOG THROUGH
DAWN, WEAK DRY ADVECTION VIA NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM GETTING TOO WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, AND COULD
EVEN BEGIN MIXING IT OUT IN SOME AREAS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT
TODAY, WITH RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS A CUTOFF UPPER DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CHARLESTON METRO. GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW, GENERALLY
5-10 KTS, A HIGHLY ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR SOUTHERN
WV ZONES IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO DEVELOP GIVEN PWATS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO 1.5"+ BY LATER TODAY, AND ALSO CONSIDERING THE
POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING IN SOME
OF THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH NEAR/AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITHIN LOW STRATUS COURTESY
OF SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.
AFTER A REFRESHING MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S,
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY BE
PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY
PROGESSES EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASED WARMTH/MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA VIA AN ATLANTIC/GULF
FEED WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH DIURNAL HEATING (POPS
GENERALLY 40-80%). THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND COURTESY OF A FAIRLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH WEAK CROSSING WAVES THAT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE
LOWER SIDE, AS THE STRONGER KINEMATICS GENERALLY REMAINING
NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, DAILY MODEST INSTABILITY/FORCING
WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, WITH PROGGED
SOUNDINGS DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY FAVORING WEAK SHEAR AMID A
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WOULD TREND TOWARDS A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT VIA WET MICROBURSTS IF STRONGER STORMS WERE TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION, PWATS IN THE 1.5-2.0" RANGE AMID CONTINUED
GENERAL WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AMID HIGH HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VALLEY FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT /
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TO ~1330Z. THIS GIVES WAY TO A
MAINLY DRY AND VFR DAY AMID A FEW/SCT CU FIELD, WITH ISOLD
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS SW VA
AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV. BRIEF MVFR VSBY COULD OCCUR AT BKW WITH
THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN A VCSH
MENTION AT THIS POINT.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE
ONE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITHIN LOW STRATUS VIA SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AMID LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AT BKW/EKN.
CALM FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL TRANSITION
TO LIGHT ENE TO ESE DURING THE DAY, WITH FLOW ONCE AGAIN GOING
MAINLY CALM TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY, MEDIUM TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF MVFR VSBY COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH (INCLUDING AT BKW) WITH ISOLD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
TODAY. RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AT BKW/EKN WITH STRATUS COULD VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IFR COULD ALSO OCCUR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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