610
FXUS61 KRLX 151846
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
246 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 138 PM MONDAY...
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS PUSHING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RAIN WAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN
CANADA ACROSS NORTHWEST PA, SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
THE GULF STATES.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST, THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END AS COOLER DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK UP WITH MUCH OF
LOWLAND COUNTIES SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
MORNING.
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES, DECREASING WINDS AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE OF FROST WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. IN ADDITION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF PERRY COUNTY OH COULD BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AND A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.
EVEN WITH SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL WITH
READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 246 PM MONDAY...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONT STALLED OVER THE CAROLINAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY. A WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY THROW SOME CLOUDS INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER MAKING
IT AS FAR NORTH AS GRUNDY OR WELCH TUESDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE WEDNESDAY AND A CHILLY,
DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS FOLLOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST A GOOD BET BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 246 PM MONDAY...
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SEND A PIECE OF
ENERGY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TO CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS
TRANSPIRES, MODELS INDICATE A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE (RAIN)
HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT
MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, AND THIS COULD FALL
AS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THEN FALL
BACK TOWARD FREEZING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 138 PM MONDAY...
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE
MOUNTAINS. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT, AND
EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME DOWN BELOW 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES ALSO TO
IFR IN RAIN BEFORE IT PASSES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE IFR
CEILINGS COULD LINGER THIS EVENING CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND
EXPECT LIFR FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT AT EKN. OTHERWISE, ONCE
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION, EXPECT RAPID CLEARING, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TERMINALS AND WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS THE FOG
DISSIPATES AND THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LIFT AND
BREAK-UP.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COULD FLUCTUATE AND MAY NEED TEMPOS OR AMDS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H L H M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H L L H H M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-
076-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ABE/JSH
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JSH
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