083
FXUS61 KRLX 102351
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
751 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRIMMED SLIGHTLY FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
2.) SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A SMALL COMPLEX OVER THE LOWLANDS, BRINGING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.
3.) A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
4.) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRIVING
HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MID-
LEVEL WAVE IS EXITING EAST, WHICH HAS TAKEN THE BULK OF THE
MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL BE MOST ATTAINABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WHERE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
WAS LESS COMMON, BUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM. GIVEN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, BUT SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A BULK OF THE AREA WITH THE 1630Z
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A WEAKLY CAPPED BUT HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OFFSET
BY THE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ALLOWING MIXED-LAYER CAPE
VALUES TO BUILD TO 2000 TO 2500J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
WHILE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW LIMITED OVERALL COVERAGE,
THE WEAK CAPPING AND HIGH INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WATER-LOADED SOUNDINGS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL CELLULAR CONVECTION TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SMALL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS, MOST LIKELY
MATERIALIZING BETWEEN THE I-77 AND I-79 CORRIDORS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SATURATED SOILS FROM
RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF
ANY MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION GETS OVER THOSE LOCATIONS WHO
HAVE SEEN BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES IN THE PRECEDING DAYS (METRO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS), ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY BE EAST AND NORTH OF THOSE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A MORE POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 1
PM ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO AT
LEAST A BROKEN MULTI-CELLULAR LINE AS THEY BISECT THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST A FEW HOURS LATER. STRONGER KINEMATICS
ARE FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, LEAVING ONLY 20 TO
25 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS.
THIS LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE OR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS,
THOUGH AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE
12000 FEET WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT HAIL SURVIVAL TO THE GROUND,
KEEPING THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT LOW. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES IF THE LINE PASSES OVER AREAS WITH
COMPROMISED SOIL MOISTURE FROM THE PRECEDING DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO 90F ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO RESIDE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CENTRAL GUIDANCE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WERE INTENTIONALLY REDUCED DUE
TO A KNOWN HIGH BIAS IN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE BASED ON POOR
SURFACE STATION DATA. THE RESULTING COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WITH VALUES FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA, NO
HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONTINUES AREA WIDE, THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRACKING
ACROSS NORH-CENTRAL WV THIS EVENING WHICH COULD CLIP PKB, CKB
OR EKN. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MARGINAL AND HAVE.
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT FELL TODAY WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DESPITE SOME LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW, ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY, GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING FOR
PKB/CKB/EKN COULD VARY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL FOG COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN WINDS CAN COMPLETELY DECOUPLE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/11/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY RAIN FALLS DURING
THE DAY. FOG IS MOST LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JRM/JP
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