632
FXUS61 KRLX 091738
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND TRI-STATE AREA OF WV/OH/KY. ~18Z
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAIN ON THE TABLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS AND ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EMERGE STARTING AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A SWEEPING LINE OF TRAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SMALL HAIL
BEING THE MAIN RISKS FOR ANY ROBUST AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HYDRO ISSUES IN THE FORM OF LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ROUNDS
OF SLOWER MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRIPE OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH NEW MODEL RUNS.
CURRENTLY, 1.50"-2.50" IS PROJECTED TO BE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA/I-64 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW THESE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MOVE THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL PROMPT A HEAVY PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONCERNS FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY RESIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A DRIER SPELL LOOKS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW TO SCT
CLOUD DECKS. ISO TS AND SH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
WIDESPREAD TS/SH THAT ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NOT ANTICIPATING FOG TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AND
CLOUD COVER INCREASING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND BR ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MAY IMPACT EKN DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND IF ANY BREAKS BETWEEN RAINFALL
YIELD CLEARING. EXPECTING IFR AND MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA AND -DZ
TO BE IN ABUNDANCE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AND OUT
OF THE SSW. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY WITH ANY CONVECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY COULD CAUSE
RESTRICTIONS IF THEY DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL. TIMING OF
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOWER CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
CLIMATE...GW
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