355
FXUS61 KRLX 070912
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
512 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK, WITH
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE EFFECTS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. OVERALL, THE THREAT OF SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW, BUT NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS EXPECTED, WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS/DCAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY OVER 1000 J/KG. LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE RATHER LIGHT STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS SOME
MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD, BUT ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED, AS BROAD TROUGHING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.,
WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY, SOME OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, AFTER 15-18Z, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS, WITH
BULK OF CONVECTION DECREASING IN COVERAGE AFTER 23Z.
IFR OR WORSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAIN FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH, EXCEPT LOW WITH FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATION OF
FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L M M H H M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H H M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M H H M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M M M H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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