298
FXUS61 KRLX 112321
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, AMID INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 112 PM MONDAY...
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, ALTHOUGH
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND CAPPED AT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT/TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD, WITH MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA WILL ALSO AID IN
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF PEAK HEATING. STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DURING THE PERIOD. HEAT INDICES ON TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS, BUT OVERALL SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY MOSTLY BELOW CRITERIA, PARTICULARLY WITH CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION HELPING TO DAMPER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 112 PM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A GREATER CHANCE FOR STORMS VERSUS TUESDAY, AS A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA, AND
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS WILL CONTAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND OVERALL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW
REGIME. HEAT INDICES DURING THE PERIOD WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, BUT AT THIS POINT, ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 100. OTHERWISE, THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY START TO REBOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN THE HEAT AGAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY, BUT GENERALLY BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 112 PM MONDAY...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND OVERALL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LOW DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 720 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF CALM SURFACE WIND AND FAIRLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY GET INTO CRW/EKN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OTHER SITES WITH SLIGHTLY LESS FOG (MVFR OR BETTER) EXCEPT FOR
BKW WHO WILL HAVE ENOUGH SURFACE FLOW TO HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT.
ONCE THE FOG LIFTS BY 12-13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME FOG
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY AND COVERAGE OF FOG IN THE MORNING
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MID AFTERNOON STORMS THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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