938
FXUS61 KRLX 040924
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
524 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE AND DRIER THIS WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TODAY, A FEW SHOWERS COULD GRAZE THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND LAUNCHES A
PERIOD OF DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER THAT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WHEN
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING MOST
TERMINALS TO RETURN TO VFR. LOWER CLOUDS MAY, HOWEVER, PERSIST
AT BKW. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TODAY AND
EXTENT/TIMING OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG THIS WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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