532
FXUS61 KRLX 031939
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
338 PM UPDATE...
ADDED POPS INTO THE FORECAST WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING.
1254 PM UPDATE...
LATEST THOUGHTS ON THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE HEAT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IN KEY MESSAGES 1 AND 2.
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY. WAVES OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, MAINLY ACROSS MICHIGAN,
SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS WHERE MOST
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE FOCUSED TODAY, BUT A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THESE
COMPLEXES REACHING PARTS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED THESE AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY, WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE WESTWARD FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY BECAUSE OF THE SHIFTING RIDGE AXIS AND AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. AGAIN, THE MAIN RISKS OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT SUNDAY SHOULD OVERALL BE DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY. THE AIR WON'T FEEL EXCESSIVELY HUMID LIKE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT IT WILL STILL FEEL SOMEWHAT MUGGY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOME SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z THIS
EVENING. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
FOG HAS
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR VISIBILITY HAS
BEEN ADDED AT A FEW OF THE SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING MAY VARY. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>031.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL/26
AVIATION...26
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