648
FXUS61 KRLX 182331
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
731 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
729 PM UPDATE...
~00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FORECAST UPDATED.
142 PM UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE STILL
INTACT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND REMAINS ON TRACK,
WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.
2) DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH MORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONT HAS SINCE MOVED SOUTH OF THE
CWA, WITH LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. GOES-EAST
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DETECTED THE TYPICAL WAVEFORM STRUCTURE TO THE
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK, WHICH WILL ACT TO PERTURB THE OVERTURNED
AIRMASS ENOUGH SUCH THAT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE NOW-DEPLETED
EML. SEVERE WEATHER NOR FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, AND UPDRAFTS MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH HEIGHTS HIGH
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHTNING. POPS HAVE BEEN DELINEATED ALONG A LINE
FROM HTS-CRW-CKB, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE QUICKLY BY SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLES, WITH VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF A MILE WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOME LOCALES,
ALONG WITH THE CLOUD DECK DESCENDING TO 100-200 FT AGL, WITH LIGHT,
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING CALM AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COMMENCES. ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ALLOW STRONGER INSOLATION TO OCCUR,
BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE STRONG WARM NOSE/SUBSIDENCE NEAR 800 MB, BUT AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, IT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OWING TO THE
EJECTION OF A NEUTRALLY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE RESULTANT INTERACTION OF THESE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW A PV ANOMALY TO SHEAR OFF OF AN INTENSE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO ONTARIO, RESULTING IN A BELT OF MOIST,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO ADVECT ACROSS THE RUST BELT AND TOWARDS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE LEADING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY
UNDERGOING WARM-FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS PROGRESSES INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY WHILE BROADENING IN AMPLITUDE. THE PRESENCE OF THE INCREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
JETLETS IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND DAILY CHANCES FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS SH/TS TAPER OFF AND
CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. AN ISO SH OR TS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AT CRW, BKW, OR HTS AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN DIRECT IMPACT TO
THESE SITES DUE TO SUCH AN ISO NATURE, SO IT HAS BEEN LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO FILTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT AT SITES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW STRATUS
WILL BE PROBABLE. RIVER VALLEYS AND SITES WHERE CLOUD COVER
CLEARS OUT, NAMELY PKB, HTS, AND CRW WILL MOST LIKELY SEE DENSE
VALLEY FOG DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER ~06Z. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY FOG. OUTSIDE OF ANY STUBBORN
MVFR CIGS WITH LOW STRATUS, VFR WILL RESUME BY ~13-14Z.
W TO N WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TOMORROW, THOUGH A BIAS TOWARDS LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IMPACTS AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H M H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN DENSE FOG SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN
LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...LTC
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