102  
FXUS61 KRLX 051716  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
116 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTES DRY, BUT HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK THE CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...  
 
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD COURTESY  
OF A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.  
 
AFTER A HOT AFTERNOON, MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING  
UNDER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. CLEARING  
SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW AT NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RIVER VALLEY  
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM FROM  
FORMING OVER OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TO THE WEST IN OHIO,  
AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CREATE MORE UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS, MAKING THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY THERE.  
 
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE  
LOWLANDS, RANGING INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WITH  
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S, MOST PLACES WILL  
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE  
LOWLANDS, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...  
 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, ALLOWING FOR  
SHORTWAVES AND A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND THE  
APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.  
 
CONFIDENCE RUNS MEDIUM TO LOW AS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON  
THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. ON ONE HAND HAVE REMNANTS  
OF CHANTAL BRINGING SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS  
BY LATE MONDAY (PER CANADIAN MODEL). OTHER MODELS TAKE CHANTAL  
FURTHER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH MINIMUM INFLUENCE OVER OUR  
LOCAL AREA.  
 
ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE  
NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CONVECTION, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
AND POOR DEEP LAYERED SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND  
STORMS, SOME PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED  
FLOODING PROBLEMS. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ACROSS NE KY, SE OH AND PORTIONS OF WV ON MONDAY.  
 
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AHEAD OF FRONT INTO THE MID 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S, EXPECT HEAT INDEXES TO REACH  
100 OVER SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE  
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SE OH AND THE WV LOWLANDS FOR MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY, KEEPING GOOD CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. AGAIN, WITH POOR  
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR, STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN  
EFFICIENT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 PM SATURDAY...  
 
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTERACTS  
WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, RANGING  
INTO THE MID 70S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  
 
THE FRONT OSCILLATES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INITIATING CONVECTION AS  
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD. HOWEVER, CAN NOT RULE OUT NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY...  
 
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT  
AS THE AREA CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE AT  
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM FLOW WILL ALLOW  
FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN, ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.  
SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNDER  
DENSE FOG WILL BE EKN, HTS, AND CKB. EXPECT SHALLOWER FOG OR IN  
THE VICINITY OF CRW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FOG WILL ROUGHLY  
LAST FROM 08Z THROUGH 12Z.  
 
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AREA ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREA  
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER WEAK SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST  
SOUTHEAST.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG  
FORMATION MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG SUNDAY/MONDAY  
MORNINGS, PRIMARILY AT EKN.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
AS OF 140 AM SATURDAY...  
 
IT WAS A VERY WARM JUNE ACROSS THE NWS CHARLESTON FORECAST  
AREA. MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2025 WERE  
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATED INTO  
FOUR OFFICIAL NWS CHARLESTON CLIMATE LOCATIONS MAKING THE TOP  
10 IN TERMS OF THEIR WARMEST MEAN JUNE TEMPERATURES ON RECORD.  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS BELOW NORMAL, WHILE OTHERS WERE ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
LISTED BELOW ARE THE LOCATIONS, RANKS, AND OBSERVED VALUES OF  
THE TOP TENS THAT WERE SET.  
 
JUNE 2025 TOP TENS SET (MEAN TEMPERATURE)  
-------------------------------------------------------------  
LOCATION TOP 10 RANK OBSERVED VALUE  
-------------------------------------------------------------  
- ELKINS, WV : 2ND WARMEST -> 71.6 F  
- BECKLEY, WV : 3RD WARMEST -> 71.4 F  
- CLARKSBURG, WV : 3RD WARMEST -> 74.0 F  
- HUNTINGTON, WV : 7TH WARMEST -> 76.9 F  
-------------------------------------------------------------  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ  
NEAR TERM...ARJ  
SHORT TERM...ARJ  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...ARJ  
 
CLIMATE...GW  
 
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