478
FXUS61 KRLX 171032
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
532 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION. ALTHOUGH, A
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH AMID ZONAL FLOW, THEREFORE IT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA TOO MUCH. BUT THIS FEATURE COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING MORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, CENTRAL GUIDANCE DID NOT PROVIDE ANY HINT OF THIS INTO
THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH IT IS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY WITH A
LOT OF STRATOCU COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT
SOMEWHAT BY THE EVENING. THIS CLOUD COVERAGE HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES WHERE LIFT IS MORE FAVORABLE TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE FEATURE WILL BE RIDING ALONG UNDER WESTERLY
FLOW.
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR A SHORT PERIOD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND THEN HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND POTENT SYSTEM BRINGING IN THE FEATURE THAT WILL
BE SHARP IN NATURE AND QUICK MOVING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
FOR THURSDAY PUMPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WARMER WEATHER INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOARING TEMPERATURES TO PASS THE 60
DEGREE MARK WHICH IS ANOMOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
WILL PROVIDE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL IN TURN CREATE MORE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
THE HRRR INCLUDING MOST HI-RES MODELS HAVE A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA) AS
EARLY AS 00Z FRIDAY. THIS FROPA (FRONTAL PASSAGE) COULD CREATE
SOME CELL ACTIVITY INTO THE HEART OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT
PASSES INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN AT FIRST, THEN WHEN THE FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH IN A HASTY MOVEMENT, THE CHANGEOVER TO A MIX
WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT AND THEN ALL SNOW BY EARLY MORNING.
IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING WRAP AROUND FLOW, CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN THE LOWLANDS AND WILL
LIKELY MELT AWAY, HOWEVER IN THE MOUNTAINS THEY COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES BEFORE THE WRAP AROUND FLOW EXITS AND CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE
FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL SEE HARDLY ANY CHANGE SINCE IT WILL
BE NON-DIURNAL IN NATURE ALTHOUGH LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 20S. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADVISORY HEADLINE AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW AS THE SIGNAL IS INCREASINGLY APPARENT AND WELL WITHIN
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE NEW
PACKAGE IN THE FORECAST COMING FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
WAS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY PREVIOUSLY. CENTRAL GUIDANCE DID LOWER
CHANCES FOR RAIN, HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM KICKS
OUT ZONAL FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY TAKE OVER AND KEEP THE AREA
SETTLED. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A JET ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD CREATE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY,
IN THE NORTHERN SECTORS OF OUR CWA, HOWEVER AS OF NOW THE
PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW EVEN GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AFTER FRIDAY TO JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL CONTINUE PAST THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODELS THEN HINT OF A SYSTEM ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SINCE
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THIS MAY BE A LONG SHOT. IN SUMMARY, THE
LONG TERM PERIOD MAY VERY WELL BE LESS IMPACTFUL TO OUR AREA
THEN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING LATELY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 540 AM WEDNESDAY...
STRATOCU IS INVADING THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. AT TIMES, MVFR COULD COME
TO FRUITION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS SITES, HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO VFR, ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK
UP AND MIX THE CLOUDS OUT ALONG WITH ANY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THAT IS APPARENT FROM NOW UNTIL THEN.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY, WITH
SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA INTO THE
NIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL SITES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
POSSIBLE RAINFALL ACTIVITY ENTERS THE AREA ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FROPA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILING CONDITIONS MAY VARY TODAY WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE UNDER LOW TO MID STRATOCU DECKS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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