606
FXUS61 KRLX 221319
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
919 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
917 AM UPDATE...
LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
THINKING THERE WILL BE A SLOWER RISE IN DEW POINTS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. NOT THINKING FIRE DANGER
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS WE SHOULD MOISTEN UP WITH TIME,
HOWEVER, WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP, WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF BRUSH FIRE ACTIVITY TODAY. WILL
MONITOR CONDITIONS, AND ISSUE ANY FIRE RELATED PRODUCTS...I.E.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS IF NEEDED.
AVIATION UPDATE.
211 AM UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGHEST AS A FRONT
NEARS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
- 2) BECOMING UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, WITH 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS LIKELY MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DURING THE DAY TODAY. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD MATERIALIZE AS DAYTIME HEATING BUOYS
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, LIMITED MOISTURE MAY INITIALLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE FRONT NEARS
LATER TODAY, ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING,
WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER SPANNING SOUTHEAST
OHIO, NORTHEAST KY, AND PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WV.
SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN DECREASES TO THE SOUTHEAST AS INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNDOWN.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END, TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL, AND WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY AND THEN A
SYSTEM STEERS A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THESE LATE WEEK FEATURES.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL EVENTUALLY BE INTERRUPTED AS A FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY PROMPT PERIODS OF IFR, THEN SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LINGER IN LOW CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY, WITH 15 TO 25 KT GUSTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN STORMS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN BREEZY INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIME OF RAIN AND STORMS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL/20
AVIATION...20
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