188
FXUS61 KRLX 280939
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
439 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK TROUGH IS SLOWLY REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS AFTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS COOLER AIR
FILTRATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH GUSTS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAXIMUM ALOFT SLOWLY WEAKENS.
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TONIGHT;
HOWEVER, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS A COOLER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES,
IMPROVING QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 415 AM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AMID SCT-BKN
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT (QUICKLY
APPROACHING) DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS,
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED (ROBUST) COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST, REINTRODUCING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH NOT MUCH POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 0.75", BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AS LIKE YESTERDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MINIMAL SB CAPE IS PROGGED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. COLDER AIR QUICKLY
MOVES IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT, LEADING TO SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE
20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER TEENS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 415 AM MONDAY...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WORK WEEK AMID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL BE
CHILLY, WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS, AND MID 20S TO
MID 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY PROVIDES FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES ~ 10-15 DEGREES WARMER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY COURTESY
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ROUND ON SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE
NEAR, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR EKN. IFR CEILINGS
MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY OUTSIDE OF EKN AS A LOWER SCATTERED DECK IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO LOW VFR WITH GENERAL
TIMING AFTER 23Z. EKN IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN MVFR OR LOWER
THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AS A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS FROM THE WEST, EXCEPT 12-14Z
FOR EKN AND CKB. WINDS WERE INCREASED ON THIS LATEST PACKAGE
WITH TIMES ADJUSTED TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WINDS RELAX BETWEEN 12-14Z AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY.
IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR CKB PKB CRW HTS AND BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 11/28/22
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M L M M L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M L M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES WAS SET AT CLARKSBURG,
WEST VIRGINIA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 72
DEGREES SET IN 1966.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KH/GW
NEAR TERM...KH
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...KH
CLIMATE...GW
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