679
FXUS61 KRLX 130942
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
542 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
246 AM UPDATE...
THE WEDNESDAY OUTLOOKS FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NOW INCLUDE MARGINAL RISKS FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AMID THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY AND WARM TODAY INTO PARTS OF WEDNESDAY UNDER THE GUISE
OF HIGH PRESSURE.
2.) TURNING UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ATTACHED TO THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER ISSUES.
3.) ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FORECAST AREA RELISHES WITHIN HIGH PRESSURE PARKED TO THE
SOUTH TODAY, YIELDING DRY WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, RIVER VALLEY FOG PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND UP THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DANCE THROUGH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS PARKED
RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL CAUSE FOG TO MOVE ABOUT THE
VALLEYS AND CAUSE PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT TRENDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN SPS
IS WARRANTED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
OTHERWISE, FOG EROSION AFTER DAYBREAK WILL BRANCH OUT INTO
ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY UNDER THE GUISE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ENCOURAGE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO IMPOSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
REACH ABOVE THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MAXIMUM TEMPS SPANNING THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY, BUT LOOKS TO FALL
SHORT OF EXCEEDING ANY RECORDS.
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, THE BULK OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARM
BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AS A COLD FRONT
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BOLSTER ENOUGH INSTABILITY SUITABLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN ANY STRONG STORM
THAT FORMS IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED HIGH WATER ISSUES COULD TRANSPIRE WITHIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT'S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
A LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) RISK WAS INTRODUCED WITH THE DAY 2 OUTLOOKS
FROM BOTH WPC AND SPC ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLATED FOR
THE LATER HALF OF FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, A
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE NORTH AND WILL IMPOSE A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COULD SEE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE PERFORMED AS
ANTICIPATED, WITH EKN THE PRIMARY AIRFIELD IMPACTED WHILE
REMAINING BELOW THE RIDGE AT CRW. THE KRLX VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE FLIGHT COLUMN THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPEDE ON FOG REACHING THE AIRFIELDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AIRSPACE WILL YIELD
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AFTER FOG EROSION THIS MORNING. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN CONTAINED TO
THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEARING 15KTS
MAY BE OBSERVED DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS BEFORE PETERING OUT
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TONIGHT WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LATE MORNING FOG MAY BE OBSERVED AT CRW.
OTHERWISE, TIMING OF FOG EROSION AT EKN MAY VARY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MORNING VALLEY FOG ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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