986
FXUS61 KRLX 172324
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
724 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER TRIUMPHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 723 PM SUNDAY...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST FULL DAY IN A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER GOING
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AMID BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, WITH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO SPROUT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY GROW STRONGER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
ON MONDAY, YIELDING ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER. THIS WILL HELP
TO EASE THE GRIPS OF THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD, ALLOWING FOR BREEZY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT INTO THE 40S IN
THE LOWLANDS AND THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FROST PRODUCTION
WILL BE MITIGATED ONCE MORE TONIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
RESPONSE TO THE BREEZIER WINDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FROST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME THURSDAY.
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURE INTO THE 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT, SOME FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 723 PM SUNDAY...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST H850 NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS PREVAILING THROUGH MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AGITATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SURFACE WEST SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT
SOUTHWEST OR CALM AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE RETURN GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JB/MEK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...MEK
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