697
FXUS61 KRLX 071705
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
105 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 105 PM.
1047 AM... UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK
AND THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TRAINING STORMS THAT REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS CAN CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
2) HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS WEEK. GIVEN THE
EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, HEAT SAFETY WILL BE
IMPORTANT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, BUT NO PARTICULAR DAY WILL BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. KEEP AN
EYE TO THE SKY EACH DAY THIS WEEK, AND ANYONE WHO HEARS THUNDER
ROAR SHOULD GO INDOORS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TODAY, AND THE BEST
CHANCES OF THEM OCCURRING WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA AND EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL ACTUALLY BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WHICH IS WHY ANY STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TODAY. IF A STORM DOES
OCCUR, IT COULD BRING A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN, GIVEN THE
VERY HUMID AIRMASS (PWATS 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES).
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY, CREATING MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THAT ENERGY WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
LATER IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN
INSTANCES OF TRAINING STORMS THAT REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ALL WEEK. A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM, HUMID AIR INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS FROM THE GULF. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREA-WIDE, MAKING THE AIR FEEL
UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, MEANING THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, HEAT SAFETY
WILL BE IMPORTANT THIS WEEK. CHECK ON THOSE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT, LIKE THE ELDERLY AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING. STAY HYDRATED BY DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS, TAKE
BREAKS WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS, AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF POTENTIAL HEAT
EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE. MORE INFORMATION ON THE SIGNS AND
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT ILLNESS CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT-
ILLNESS
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME PATCHY,
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 2,500 AND 3,000 FEET. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ERUPT AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON, AND IF A STORM HITS A TERMINAL,
VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
02-03Z MONDAY.
SOME MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY AT KEKN AND
KCRW. OTHERWISE, VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA-WIDE AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL FEATURE LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST TODAY. FOG MAY OR
MAY NOT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KCRW AND KEKN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGHOUT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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