760
FXUS61 KRLX 180640
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT SQUARELY OVER THE REGION STARTING
TODAY, AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
AS A RESULT, WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS,
WHILE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP INTO THE 25-35%
RANGE FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THERE COULD BE A BIT
OF VALLEY FOG TO START THE PERIOD, BUT THAT SHOULD BURN OFF
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. INCREASINGLY DRY AIR UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WOULD SEEM TO MAKE FOG TONIGHT LESS LIKELY,
EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER-ELEVATION HIGHS
GENERALLY MID-80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, AND THE MOUNTAINS
GETTING INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE
MODEL DATA THAT A WEAK TROUGH OR SURFACE FRONT COULD MOVE SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SOLUTIONS EVEN SHOW SOME SPECKLES OF QPF OVER NORTHERN WV AND
SOUTHEAST OH. BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR SUCH A FEATURE WOULD
BE MOVING INTO, AS WELL AS THE UPPER RIDGING DELIVERING SOME
SUBSIDENCE, IT SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY THAT ANY RAIN ACTUALLY
MAKES IT TO OUR AREA, AND THE FORECAST FOR NOW REFLECTS NO RAIN
CHANCES.
HOWEVER, IN A BIT OF A CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST, THERE
ARE NOW SOME COHERENT SIGNS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MAY SHIFT EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FAR
ENOUGH TO DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IN
TURN COULD BRING SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES TO THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME, GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THE BEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE
TOPOGRAPHY MAY HELP KICK OFF CONVECTION MORE EASILY. REGARDLESS,
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE MORE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, AND
MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE, SO IT WON'T BE A MAJOR DROUGHT RELIEF
BY ANY STRETCH.
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY LIKELY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S FORECAST, THOUGH IF ANY
SHOWERS TO SPRING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS, THAT MIGHT KEEP THEM A
BIT COOLER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
THE SEESAWING FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUES FOR
NEXT WORK WEEK. THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE SHIFTS A BIT TOWARDS
FAVORING AN ACTIVE STRETCH WITH A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST GIVING US PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SW'LY FLOW AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WAVES TO MOVE ALONG IT. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE
ISN'T ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS SUITE SHOWING A
STRONGER RIDGE THAT TAKES LONGER TO BREAK DOWN, WHILE THE CMC
AND EURO BOTH SHOW A SOMEWHAT FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH.
AT THIS POINT, THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST REFLECTS BOTH THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN THE FORECAST
MODELS, WITH FORECAST POPS GENERALLY KEPT TO 35% OR LESS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AND THE FORECAST COULD GO EITHER WAY - IT
COULD SWING BACK DRIER, AND GIVEN RECENT CONDITIONS IT IS
UNDERSTANDABLE TO BE PESSIMISTIC, BUT IT COULD ALSO START TO
SHOW MORE CERTAINTY OF A WET PERIOD, WHERE WE STAY 'UNDER THE
GUN' OF PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES WHICH COULD START TO ADD UP.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 120 AM WEDNESDAY...
FOG MAY START TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AROUND EKN, BUT IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD
OFF ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. REGARDLESS, SOME VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO DOWN HARD AT EKN, SO THEY HAVE LIFR
CONDITIONS PUT INTO THE TAF. FOG IS LESS CERTAIN FOR CKB, CRW,
AND PKB, SO THOSE SITES WERE HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS LATER
TONIGHT. EITHER WAY, ANY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND
13Z, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION WOULD SEEM TO
MAKE VALLEY FOG LESS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/18/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK
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