806
FXUS61 KRLX 312308
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
708 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. WARMING TREND WITH DISTURBANCES
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF FROST IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS AWAY FROM RIVERS AND CITIES IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. WITH THE GROUND FAIRLY WARM HOWEVER,
THINK THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LIMITED FOR AN ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH PA. THIS
MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, LOOKS
TO STAY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH CLOUDS MAIN EFFECT. OTHERWISE,
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FROM A
PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST, OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT MIDWEEK, WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE IS
THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM MID WEEK ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, BUT AT THIS POINT, BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO LIE
NORTH OF THE CWA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WAFFLE NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 705 PM SUNDAY...
VFR THIS EVENING WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
DIURNAL CU FIELD IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CI EXPECTED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, AREAS OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF KCRW AND KEKN.
AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF FOG IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EVEN IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, A QUICK
RETURN TO VFR AND SKC SHOULD OCCUR AREAWIDE ON MONDAY.
SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM NEARLY AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION, TIMING, AND SEVERITY OF RIVER
VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RH
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