559
FXUS61 KRLX 281838
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BUILDING HEAT THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK AMID MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW/MID 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BEGINNING SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER BEGINS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING TODAY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE BROAD
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY ENDING UP
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A LENGTHY PERIOD
OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AMID A STEADY WARMING
TREND.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING VIA TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT, WITH ONE OR TWO ONGOING AT
PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A RETURN TO A SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD IN TERMS OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WORK WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN/SHIFT BY
SOME GUIDANCE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL
TRANSITION TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY AS A LATE SUMMER HEAT
WAVE COMMENCES, THEN REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK, WITH EVEN MID 90S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT,
DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THEREAFTER, MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 18Z
SATURDAY) OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING AT BKW/EKN IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE, A FEW/SCT CU FIELD (025-045) IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE SAME DEVELOPING LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. MORE/LESS WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST, WITH
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG PROGGED AT ALL TERMINALS SAVE BKW. FOG
SHOULD LIFT / SCATTER FROM ~ 1130-1400Z ON SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS AS IT DOES SO.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TODAY WILL GO CALM AT MOST SITES TONIGHT,
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG TONIGHT IN SATURDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A BRIEF MVFR SHOWER/STORM COULD OCCUR IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING,
LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WILL VARY, ALONG WITH THE RETURN TO VFR.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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