083
FXUS61 KRLX 180005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
805 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LESS
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK, THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE REGION FINDS ITSELF WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE UPPER LEVEL FORCING COURTESY OF PVA IS GREATEST.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. KEPT POPS AT SLT/CHC
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER APPROXIMATELY 11 PM AND
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS BY DAWN. DUE EXPECT FOG TO BE SLIGHTLY
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING, GIVEN AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF
DRYING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY ~13Z IN
MOST LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A CUMULUS FIELD WILL
DEVELOP BEGINNING LATE MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO SLT
FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS, WITH MID 60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, IT MAY PICK UP A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE
GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING IT MAINLY EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL, CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WARRANTED
KEEPING HIGHER POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT
MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNALLY ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MAKE INROADS INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX AND THE GULF COAST WHICH MAY INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH A THREAT WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GREATEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. STILL,
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 0800 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT FOG WILL
FORM RATHER QUICKLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 0300Z, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING (I.E. BKW AND CKB).
VLIFR AND LIFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION. EXPECTING
THE FOG TO LIFT AROUND 1300-1330Z PROMOTING MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
IN THE MORNING, BEFORE A SCT CU DECK SHOULD FORM BETWEEN 1500-1600Z.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 1800Z FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS WV AND SW VA.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT DUE TO FOG MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 08/18/22
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...30/GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...LTC
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