610  
FXUS61 KRLX 151846  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
246 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.  
WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY.  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 138 PM MONDAY...  
 
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WAS PUSHING  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RAIN WAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A  
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EASTERN  
CANADA ACROSS NORTHWEST PA, SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO  
THE GULF STATES.  
 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD  
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES  
SOUTHEAST, THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END AS COOLER DRIER AIR  
FILTERS IN. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK UP WITH MUCH OF  
LOWLAND COUNTIES SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY  
MORNING.  
 
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES, DECREASING WINDS AND COLD HIGH  
PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. APPEARS THE  
BEST CHANCE OF FROST WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE A FROST  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. IN ADDITION, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF PERRY COUNTY OH COULD BE AT OR BELOW  
FREEZING AND A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT COUNTY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY  
WITH LOTS OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
EVEN WITH SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL WITH  
READINGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 246 PM MONDAY...  
 
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONT STALLED OVER THE CAROLINAS AS  
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY. A WAVE MOVING  
ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY THROW SOME CLOUDS INTO OUR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER MAKING  
IT AS FAR NORTH AS GRUNDY OR WELCH TUESDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY  
FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE WEDNESDAY AND A CHILLY,  
DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS FOLLOWS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE  
MOUNTAINS AND CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH  
WIDESPREAD FROST A GOOD BET BOTH NIGHTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 246 PM MONDAY...  
 
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SEND A PIECE OF  
ENERGY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH A  
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA TO CARVE OUT A  
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS  
TRANSPIRES, MODELS INDICATE A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE (RAIN)  
HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EXITS SATURDAY  
MORNING. ANOTHER DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO THE DEEP TROUGH ALOFT  
MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, AND THIS COULD FALL  
AS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO  
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THEN FALL  
BACK TOWARD FREEZING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 138 PM MONDAY...  
 
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AS A  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE  
MOUNTAINS. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT, AND  
EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME DOWN BELOW 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES ALSO TO  
IFR IN RAIN BEFORE IT PASSES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE IFR  
CEILINGS COULD LINGER THIS EVENING CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND  
EXPECT LIFR FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT AT EKN. OTHERWISE, ONCE  
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION, EXPECT RAPID CLEARING, ESPECIALLY  
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TERMINALS AND WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHWEST.  
 
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS THE FOG  
DISSIPATES AND THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LIFT AND  
BREAK-UP.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT COULD FLUCTUATE AND MAY NEED TEMPOS OR AMDS.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H L H M M M M M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H L L H H M H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H M M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H M H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L H M M H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-  
076-084.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ066.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ABE/JSH  
NEAR TERM...JSH  
SHORT TERM...ABE  
LONG TERM...ABE  
AVIATION...JSH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page