715
FXUS61 KRLX 101908
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND GUSTY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY DRY BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR AND
LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
* A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS
AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
NEARING 55 MPH ON SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE UP
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BULK OF TODAY'S RAIN HAS NOW PUSHED OFF
ONTO THE EASTWARD SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS
LEAVES BEHIND BLANKETED OVERCAST SKIES WITH EMBEDDED DRIZZLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS. SOME CLEARING IS PRESENT
BACK IN INDIANA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY SUNSHINE WILL
REVEAL ITSELF BEFORE DUSK TODAY.
THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A DRY SLOT CURRENTLY, BUT LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS GROWING IN COVERAGE OFF TO OUR WEST IN CENTRAL OHIO.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN
SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR BEFORE
STRONGER MOISTURE SURGES DOWN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, COUPLED WITH PLUNGING TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PRESSING IN BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HI-RES CAMS
INSINUATES A STEALTH BAND OF SNOW FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THAT MAY WARRANT AN SPS FOR ANY EARLY MORNING
COMMUTERS.
BEHIND THIS LINE, MODEL REFLECTIVITY DENOTES POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS SETTING UP ALONG THE I-64 AND I-79 CORRIDORS. SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETERS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE SHOWS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR THIS SETUP FROM 11 AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SNOW POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE UPSLOPE DRIVEN.
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS H85 STREAMLINES REMAIN PROPAGATED OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. EVENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS QUICK HITTING
EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON
THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS. WITH THAT IN MIND, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR PARTS OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER, THIS PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL YIELD A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT, AN UPTICK IN WIND
GUSTS WILL TAKE SHAPE AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
HOWLING AS STRONG AS 55 MPH IN SOME SPOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST POCAHONTAS COUNTIES, WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA, GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30
MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30 TO 40
MILES PER HOUR ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WIND AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH ONGOING HEADLINES TO CAPTURE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS WILL BE LOWERING HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY, SQUEEZING OUT THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE FLOW
BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE GREAT LAKES. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS,
SNOW POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DROPS OFF AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING
AND DRYING UP ALTOGETHER BY DAWN MONDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL END IN RESPONSE TO THE END OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WINDS WILL ALSO TAPER DOWN IN A SIMILAR FASHION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE BEGINNING THE FORECAST PERIOD
ELEVATED TO NEAR 45 TO 55 KTS ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES, A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL OBTAIN
INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ADVERTISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER,
WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES AROUND MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN AROUND
MIDWEEK WITH A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM SCOOTING BY TO THE NORTH.
A QUICK SUCCESSION OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE A RAIN/SNOW COMBINATION BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDING ONWARD INTO THURSDAY, WHERE THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TO
ROUND OUT THIS DISTURBANCE. WHILE STILL FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DISTRIBUTE PRECIPITATION
AND OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, RAIN SHOWERS WERE WRAPPING UP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH AN APPROACHING DRY SLOT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THE
NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE DASHES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES YIELDING A TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW. CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND AN UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND
WILL ROUND OUT THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 TO 30KTS
BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY IN AND
OUT OF RAIN, FOLLOWED BY SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H L H H L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H M L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ520-522-523-526.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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