940
FXUS61 KRLX 251703
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED ALONG WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE AND THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY LIKELY WITH AREAS OF DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2.) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
3.) REINFORCING DRY FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADS TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, DRY CONDITIONS, AND SEASONABLE TO WARM WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
CONTINUES DRY, CALM AND QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BROKEN BY FAIR WEATHER CU
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE DIURNAL CU FADING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS YIELDS ANOTHER
MORNING OF EXPECTED RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SUBTLY RISING HEIGHTS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN DAYTIME
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
LOWER DEWPOINTS KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER MAKER IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT SWINGS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FIZZLING AS IT APPROACHES OUR OHIO
COUNTIES GIVEN A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH AN EXPECTED
EVENING ARRIVAL TIME.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT HELPS DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
THURSDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH HOW MUCH HEATING WE CAN
ATTAIN WITH EXPECTED RATHER STOUT CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THIS
UNCERTAINTY, MODELS PROG BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE IN THE AREA. BULK SHEAR ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 20-30 KTS BUT
INCREASE EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS, WHERE THE DAYS
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY BE SEEN. DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
SOME DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT LOWER LAPSE RATES
AND RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVELS MAY CAP OUR HAIL RISK SOME. ALL
IN ALL, OUR CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO AND POINTS
LARGELY TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. AT THIS TIME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ARE IN
THE D3 MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC.
GREATER MOISTURE FLUX UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR SIGNIFICANTLY RAISES
PWATS EAST OF US AND AS SUCH KEEPS MOST HYDRO CONCERNS OUT OF
OUR AREA. 90TH PERCENTILE PWATS PUT US IN THE 1.60-1.80 INCH
RANGE, A FAR CRY FROM SOME OF OUR RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS. THIS
ALONG WITH A DECENT EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED KEEPS OUR
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON THE LOWER
END.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LOBES OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LINGERING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY PUSH A SECONDARY MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS LOOKS POSSIBLE BUT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
HAVE A SHOT AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH UPLIFT
AND CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE TERRAIN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS PLACES US IN A LARGELY DRY AND CALM NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY BEHIND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT BUT THEN STEADILY RISING HEIGHTS RAISE TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, LOW 90S ARE SNEAKING
BACK INTO THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FEW TO SCT FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 3-4KFT FOOT RANGE CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS POINT TOWARDS FOG POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS BEGINNING BETWEEN 06-09Z.
PERIODS OF IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS LINGER INTO THE MID- MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT. LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR FAIR WEATHER CU IN THE 3-5KFT RANGE CONTINUE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, HIGH OTHERWISE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY OF FOG
MAY VARY.
THE FLIGHT CATEGORY CONSISTENCY TABLE IS UNAVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME.
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...AK
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