622
FXUS61 KRLX 230808
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS
ARE STRONG WINDS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WAFFLING FRONT IN / NEAR THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL WAVES
WILL KEEP CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES LEADING TO FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE MID-OHIO VALLEY UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.
- 2) THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH SOME DRYING POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY, WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTH OF THE CWA. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE
ATTENDING COLD FRONT NOT FAR BEHIND TO THE WEST, HOWEVER,
MORE/LESS STALLING AS IT GETS INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATER
TONIGHT. THIS ALL TRANSLATES TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN MODEST ANTICIPATED DESTABILIZATION (MIXED-LAYER
CAPE OF ~ 500-1000 J/KG) IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE TWO
FRONTS. CAMS DEPICT A WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. WITH A CONTINUED GULF
MOISTURE FEED, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SAME AREAS AS ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WITH SOME
CREEKS/RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE AT PRESENT, AND SEVERELY
COMPROMISED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WITH THE FORECAST ZONES INCLUDED REMAINING
UNCHANGED.
THE OTHER ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MID-OHIO
VALLEY, WITH STRONG WINDS AND/OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO BEING THE
HAZARDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NEAR THAT OF NORMAL, WITH
MID 70S PROGGED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AMID STEADY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO LINGER/IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH
WPC HAVING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES ON BOTH DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR THE SHORT WORK WEEK TO FOLLOW, UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY VERY SLOWLY ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE FRONT
MAY SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM ON THIS. HYDRO CONCERNS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE A LINGERING ISSUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD
BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS - IFR/LIFR ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS (BKW), WHILE MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID-OHIO VALLEY (HTS/PKB).
SE/S SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 6Z
SUNDAY). BREEZY WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS AND/OR VSBY MAY OSCILLATE FROM THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AND WIND
DIRECTION. BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT CKB/CRW/EKN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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