262
FXUS61 KRLX 041731
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
- 2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
- 3) THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA IN A VERY WARM WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH A FREEZING LEVEL
OF 12000-13000 FT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOWING IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE KEY MESSAGE 1 FOR DETAILS ON
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK TO DETERMINE HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES, WHEN IT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT, AND OTHER DETAILS. THE GFS EVEN TRIES TO DEVELOP A
CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY. THIS
LEADS TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, BUT GENERALLY
WARMER WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTS WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION COULD AFFECT EKN LATE
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS LOCALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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