567
FXUS61 KRLX 100913
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
513 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST.
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SE OHIO WITH EXPECTED SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISAIAS MOVES INTO THE REGION, PROVIDING A SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS, SE OHIO AND PARTS OF THE
MID-OHIO VALLEY. IN ADDITION, ISAIAS WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS REGION
WIDE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, DRIVING
UP DEW POINTS, AND KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH PRECIPITATION REACHING THE MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF SE OHIO/MID OHIO VALLEY FIRST. PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS, IN
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS, SHOULD REMAIN DRIER TO START, BEFORE FLOW
VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN GRADUALLY SATURATES WITH TIME. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWLANDS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WIND GUSTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH OR EXCEED
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGERING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AFFECTS THE AREA MID WEEK, PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS AND SE OHIO COULD SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN FROM
THIS. FOR NOW, MAINLY SE OHIO AND THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IS IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BUT THE PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. DRY
CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT SHOULD HOPEFULLY PREVENT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT OR OVERLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES.
IN ADDITION, THE RISK FOR TREE FALL AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY AS THE
GROUND BECOMES SATURATED AND WINDS INCREASE.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA GENERALLY AFTER 15-18Z. EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO
AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS, PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z,
WITH MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS LIKELY EARLIEST TO EXPERIENCE THESE
CONDITIONS, I.E. KBKW, AND A DETERIORATION TO WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR AFTER 03-06Z.
IN ADDITION, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING
THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 KT RANGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND 30 TO 45 KT RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING, A PERIOD OF LLWS
IS POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES, GENERALLY AFTER 21-00Z, AND THIS HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE TAF'S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ033-034-515>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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