413
FXUS61 KRLX 010009
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
809 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER TODAY. DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, TURNING HOT BY MIDWEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 808 PM SATURDAY...
ONLY MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
IN SOME SPOTS, SO WE ADJUSTED THOSE ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION,
WE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF "HAZE" THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST OHIO,
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS HAZE IS ALL FROM
DISTANT CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. THIS HAZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN EFFECT FROM
1 AM TO 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...
A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT, PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT PER RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS
ADDING TO THE EQUATION UNDER CLEARING AND NEAR CALM SURFACE
WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY, PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG RIVER
VALLEY AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY. IN
ADDITION, HAZE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL DISPERSE
THIS EVENING, AS THE PLUME OF SMOKE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, RANGING INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A FROST ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRE FOR TONIGHT AT LEAST FOR ELEVATIONS AT AND HIGHER THAN
3000 FEET.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, RANGING INTO THE MID 50S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 158 PM SATURDAY...
OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD COVER, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FROM A PASSING
DISTURBANCE, THE AREA SHOULD START OUT, AND REMAIN DRY IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME PATCHY FROST MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY
MORNING AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 158 PM SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST, AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH THE LOWER
90S IN SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
TOWARDS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTS EXACT
TIMING/SOUTHWARD EXTENT, AND THUS, IMPACTS TO THE AREA. BUT,
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS A RETURN OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT LEAST LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 718 PM SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. AREAS OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. THIS HAZE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG IN SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AROUND SUNRISE, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE
BY AROUND 02Z. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
SUNDAY'S WINDS WON'T BE AS GUSTY AS TODAY, ONLY EXPECTED TO GUST
UP TO 15 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 06/01/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ519>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMC
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