929
FXUS61 KRLX 190705
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE LOWERED BOTH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, IN LINE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AMID
RATHER DRY LOW/MID LEVELS. PATCHY FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALBEIT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING.
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AMID A STAGNANT PATTERN OF RATHER
DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL YIELD MORE CHANCES FOR FROST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, ALBEIT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING. A
FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE
ACTIVE GROWING SEASON THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
FOR TONIGHT POSSIBLE. DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ~ 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AREA-WIDE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AMID PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER MORNING
OF CLEAR SKIES AMID A VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AMID SOME DEVELOPING RIVER VALLEY STEAM
FOG. EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN FOG COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL,
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY MORNING,
PERHAPS A TOUCH COLDER IN SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN LESS FOG
COVERAGE, WITH LOW/MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
PATCHY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TYPICAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS AWAY FROM LAKES AND RIVERS. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR ALL ZONES WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE.
A PERSISTENCE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A RATHER DRY LAYER NEAR H850, WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN
TO AN EXTENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE LOWERED
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 30S, BUT AMID VERY LIGHT
SURFACE FLOW. SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AMID MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
THE RATHER DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE VERY
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN
SUCH, HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM
CENTRAL GUIDANCE, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DO ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT (AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
NIGHTS) GIVEN LOW/MID 30S IN SOME AREAS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
THE TIME BEING AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW, AS EXTENDED DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES AREA-WIDE.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG IS EXPECTED
THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN A CONTINUED LARGE AIR / WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE, WITH FOG LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT HOWEVER.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 06Z
TUESDAY) AMID MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD IS WITH RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG THAT HAS BEGUN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COVERAGE THIS MORNING
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY
HAVE VLIFR RESTRICTIONS PROGGED AT CRW/EKN, WITH TEMPO GROUPS
TOWARDS DAWN AT HTS/PKB GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE SINCE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT / SCATTER FROM ~ 12-1430Z, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
THEREAFTER.
CALM FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW ON MONDAY (PREDOMINANT
DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NNE). FLOW GOES CALM AFTER SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING MAY
VARY, ESPECIALLY AT HTS/PKB.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/19/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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