359
FXUS61 KRLX 101757
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1257 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A STRONG EARLY-SEASON ARCTIC FRONT
WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY
AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...
A DEEP, COLD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT DRIFTING
OVERHEAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY
COLD CORE ALOFT, WITH H500 TEMPERATURES NEAR -40 C AND H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND -9 TO -12 C, YIELDING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A RELATIVELY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
AND THE METRO VALLEY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED,
BANDED SNOW SHOWERS. PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 TO 8 C/KM UNDER THE VERY COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES, FAVORING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BROADER
LAKE-ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE REGIME. THIS SUPPORTS TRANSIENT
SQUALLY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE, WITH
BRIEF BUT INTENSE BURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES
APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DESPITE LIGHT OVERALL QPF.
GIVEN THE CURRENT WARM ANTECEDENT PAVEMENT CONDITIONS AND EARLY
NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE, THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL INITIALLY SEE MOST
ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, WITH THE
PRIMARY DAYTIME IMPACT BEING RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND
LOCALIZED SLUSH, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HOWEVER,
AS SOLAR ANGLE DECREASES LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
AND AIR TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE 20S, MELTING EFFICIENCY
DROPS AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWER WILL BE INCREASINGLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUICK COATINGS ON TRAVEL SURFACES.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES AND RIDGES OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING
HIGHLANDS, PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW NEARLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE
TERRAIN, COUPLED WITH DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER, WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR EFFICIENT UPSLOPE SNOW. HERE,
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AND LONGER-LIVED, WITH STORM-
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUING TO BUILD ON
EXISTING SNOWPACK AND REMAINING MORE IN LINE WITH WARNING-LEVEL
CRITERIA. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO A CONCERN ON THE
EXPOSED RIDGES, WHERE GUSTS INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
THE MORE ROBUST CONVERGENT BAND AND ASSOCIATED HEAVIER SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9
PM. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, A WEAKER LAKE-ENHANCED PLUME
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRUSH SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHERN
LOWLANDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH LOWER
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY; ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SECONDARY
COMPONENT SHOULD BE LIGHT (BUT POTENTIALLY STILL IMPACTFUL AS
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL).
OVERNIGHT, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT RELAXES, SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
UPSLOPE REGIMES REMAIN ACTIVE LONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SLOW TO SCOUR; THERE, SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHER WINDWARD SLOPES. ELSEWHERE, LINGERING
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BECOME INCREASINGLY SPARSE AND
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. AIR TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN THE
LOWLANDS, UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS, AND
INTO THE TEENS WITH NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES.
ON TUESDAY, THE CORE OF THE COLD TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST WHILE
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING INTO
MIDDAY IN THE MOST FAVORED TERRAIN, AND ESSENTIALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK PERTURBATION PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER A FEW ADDITIONAL FLAKES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT SOUNDINGS
SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIMITED ASCENT, SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING CLOSER, SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR, ESPECIALLY WEST, AND
WINDS GRADUALLY EASE.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM
DEEP TROUGHING TO A LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST FLOW AS HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DRY FRONT BRUSH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY, WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND INCREASING
INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 30S OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES. A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION FAVORS WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ONLY
MODEST COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO NON-
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSING WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IS MOISTURE- STARVED, WITH LIMITED DEPTH OF SATURATION
AND SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY FOLLOWING, SO ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF, NON-IMPACTFUL FLURRY OVER THE HIGHEST
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IS ANTICIPATED.
BY THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT, AND
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER COLUMN SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES FURTHER MODERATE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 40S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...
DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD
WITH MODERATES RETURNING TO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT WILL DEFER TO LOW END CENTRAL GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE EVENING,
MOST TERMINALS CAN EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2500 FT AGL, WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF IFR AT
AT KCRW, KHTS, KBKW, KEKN, AND KCKB IN INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES INTO THE 1 TO 3 SM RANGE AT TIMES,
WITH BRIEF, STRONGER SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-SINKING
CONVERGENCE BAND CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE-HALF MILE.
THESE REDUCTIONS WILL BE TRANSIENT BUT MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS
AS INDIVIDUAL BANDS MOVE THROUGH. OUTSIDE THE SHOWERS,
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GENERALLY RECOVER TO VFR OR HIGH MVFR.
OVERNIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE LOWLAND TERMINALS SHOULD SEE SHOWERS END AND CEILINGS SLOWLY
RISE LATE TONIGHT, WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR THEN VFR BY MID TO
LATE TUESDAY MORNING. AT KEKN AND KBKW, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST LONGEST, WITH MVFR AND PERIODIC IFR CIG/VIS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GRADUALLY EASING BY
EARLY TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/LOCATION OF RESTRICTIONS IN LOW
CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H M L H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L L M H H M H H M
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDEPSREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ005>008-
013>020-024>034-040-515>517.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ039-518>523-
525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ086-087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
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