054
FXUS61 KRLX 222325
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
725 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV, NORTHEAST KY, AND SOUTHWEST VA. DRY
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OH,
THEN POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING.
WATCHING A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY BENEFICIAL RAIN
SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 1250 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS A VERY LOW CONCERN
TODAY, AND IF A STORM WERE TO BECOME SEVERE, IT WOULD BE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
2) MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
3) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY'S RADAR ACTIVITY SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WEST VIRGINIA, AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK 500-MB
DISTURBANCE. THIS BRINGS BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO A LOT OF DRY
AREAS TODAY.
A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD
MOSTLY BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, BUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PERRY
COUNTY OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING, MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE LIMITING FACTOR
TODAY IS A LACK OF INSTABILITY, WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING LESS
THAN 400 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. 0.25-0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE, WHICH IS NOT A LOT, BUT WILL STILL BE
BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEXT TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE NOT
CERTAIN, AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-0.75 INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN A PREFRONTAL AIR MASS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL REMAIN MILD WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S THERE.
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AROUND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S EACH DAY, WHICH IS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
LATE APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY PROGGED TO AFFECT PARTS OF SE OHIO
AND NORTH CENTRAL WV, SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 03Z IF NOT
SOONER. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS, AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE, DUE TO RAIN OBSERVED AT MANY TAF SITES EARLIER TODAY,
DID ELECT TO KEEP A MENTION OF MVFR FOG IN SEVERAL TAF SITES FOR
A PERIOD OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY 07Z TO 12Z. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FOG, OR IFR OR WORSE FOG AT THIS TIME.
AFTER 12Z, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SL
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