017
FXUS61 KRLX 061750
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINING 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
2.) A COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALLING
THURSDAY BRINGS RETURNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH
A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS WITH UNCAPPED PROFILES,
BUT PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ERODE
ANY REMAINING MLCAPE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL FOSTER RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE
EAST MAY LIMIT FOG DEPTH AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK. WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, RUNNING ROUGHLY 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT NOTABLY COOLER THAN RECENT
EXTREMES.
BELOW AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BASED NEAR H700, STABLE LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY WILL
ENSURE DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER TOWARD HUDSON
BAY WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE MID-WEEK, DRIVING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BACK NEAR 90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT WEST-
TO-EAST DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING ON THURSDAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST TO STRONG FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER AT 35 TO 45KTS, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS
CONSTRAINED BY LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES, COMBINED WITH STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY, RAISES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS
MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING DAYS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INITIAL FLASH
FLOODING VULNERABILITY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A REMNANT
CUMULUS FIELD FROM THIS MORNING'S STRATOCUMULUS OCCASIONALLY
PRODUCING A CEILING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10KTS.
TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FAVOR
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z TO 08Z, MAINLY AT CRW AND
EKN. IFR VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM ARE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
DRAINAGES, HTS AND PKB MAY ALSO SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ANY FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH 13Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER COULD APPROACH BKW THIS AFTERNOON. FOG
EXTENT, DENSITY AND TIMING COULD VARY OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE
MORNINGS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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