188  
FXUS61 KRLX 280939  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
439 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK TROUGH IS SLOWLY REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE TONIGHT.  
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS AFTER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...  
 
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S UNDER  
CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL  
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FROM THE WEST.  
THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS COOLER AIR  
FILTRATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS  
TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH GUSTS ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING TONIGHT.  
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM AS THE LOW  
LEVEL JET MAXIMUM ALOFT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  
 
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TONIGHT;  
HOWEVER, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND  
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AS A COOLER  
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT  
ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES,  
IMPROVING QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 415 AM MONDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR  
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AMID SCT-BKN  
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT (QUICKLY  
APPROACHING) DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES ON  
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS,  
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL  
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  
AN ASSOCIATED (ROBUST) COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM  
THE WEST, REINTRODUCING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE REGION  
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF  
THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH NOT MUCH POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 0.75", BUT THERE  
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS  
SYSTEM. AS LIKE YESTERDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 30-40+ MPH WILL ONCE  
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MINIMAL SB CAPE IS PROGGED  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. COLDER AIR QUICKLY  
MOVES IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT, LEADING TO SNOW SHOWER CHANCES  
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO  
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE  
20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER TEENS FOR THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS, WHERE GUSTY CONDITIONS PERSIST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 415 AM MONDAY...  
 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE  
OF THE WORK WEEK AMID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL BE  
CHILLY, WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS, AND MID 20S TO  
MID 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY PROVIDES FOR  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ~ 10-15 DEGREES WARMER.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY COURTESY  
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ROUND ON SUNDAY  
DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE  
NEAR, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...  
 
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR EKN. IFR CEILINGS  
MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY OUTSIDE OF EKN AS A LOWER SCATTERED DECK IS  
EVIDENT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY  
ON HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO LOW VFR WITH GENERAL  
TIMING AFTER 23Z. EKN IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN MVFR OR LOWER  
THROUGH THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE AS A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR  
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z AS  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS FROM THE WEST, EXCEPT 12-14Z  
FOR EKN AND CKB. WINDS WERE INCREASED ON THIS LATEST PACKAGE  
WITH TIMES ADJUSTED TO TAPER OFF A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY  
EXPECTED. WINDS RELAX BETWEEN 12-14Z AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY.  
IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR CKB PKB CRW HTS AND BKW.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE MON 11/28/22  
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20  
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M L M M L H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M L M M M H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY  
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 DEGREES WAS SET AT CLARKSBURG,  
WEST VIRGINIA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 72  
DEGREES SET IN 1966.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KH/GW  
NEAR TERM...KH  
SHORT TERM...GW  
LONG TERM...GW  
AVIATION...KH  
CLIMATE...GW  
 
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