683
FXUS61 KRLX 200733
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY HAS EXPANDED
NORTHWESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A SOAKING HOLIDAY IS STILL
ON TAP FOR MEMORIAL DAY IN RESPONSE TO A WAFTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLANKET THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AMID AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY TODAY COULD SERVE UP
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER ISSUES WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND/OR TRAINING CELLS.
2) THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HUNG UP OVER THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND TOWARDS UNSEASONABLY WARM
READINGS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BEGINNING A STRETCH OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RADAR TRENDS AT THE
TIME OF WRITING DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING THROUGH OHIO AND GRAZING OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AS THE FRONT SLIPS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, MOISTURE DRAWING UP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP SERVE
UP ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
MESSAGING HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROGGED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE
IN LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK,
WHICH NOW EXPANDS THE MARGINAL RISK BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
OHIO COUNTIES. THIS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT AND MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY TO MAKE AN
APPEARANCE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. ADEQUATE CAPE AND SHEAR
LEVELS SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STORMS TODAY IN
ADDITION TO A LESSER THREAT FOR HAIL. STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLUGGISHLY PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT BECOMING MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN IN
THE WAKE OF FROPA.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL HELP TO PUT A DENT IN OUR
PREVAILING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING CAMS DO SUGGEST A
RIBBON OF HIGHER AMOUNTS STREAMING IN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA UP INTO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A BURST OF HEAVIER RAIN.
THIS COULD IMPOSE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES AS HEAVY, AND
POTENTIALLY REPETITIVE, SHOWERS AND STORMS PRESS UP THROUGH THIS
CORRIDOR. WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH PWATS INVADING THE AREA
TODAY, FLOATED AROUND THE IDEA OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT
OPTED TO HOLD OFF WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR THE CWA REMAINS ABOVE TWO INCHES, COUPLED WITH
ANTECEDENT DRY SOILS SO FAR THIS SPRING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME HUNG UP
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT CONTENDS
WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE. THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN ONGOING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND AS FAR WEST AS THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WHILE LOCATIONS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST RELISH IN DRIER WEATHER COURTESY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
JUST TO OUR SOUTH, EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL AS MOISTURE CONTINUES
USHER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WE REMAIN IN THIS HOLDING PATTERN
DUE TO THE NETTLESOME FRONT. IMPACTS FROM THIS MULTI-DAY
SOAKING RAIN COULD EVENTUALLY BE OBSERVED AS LOCAL CREEKS AND
STREAMS GRADUALLY BECOME OVERWHELMED BY EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.
COOLER TEMPERATURES INFILTRATE THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING AN END TO THE EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE.
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND EACH DAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT, RETURNING DAYTIME
HIGHS TO UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL
DAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING THROUGH THE HEART OF OHIO
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE UP ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE IN CEILINGS
BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS
TO START WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHRA/VCTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THEN CONCLUDING THE VALID TAF PERIOD
WITH CRASHING CEILINGS. BY LATE TONIGHT, ALL TERMINALS ARE
PROGGED TO DROP TO LOW MVFR TO LIFR/IFR AMID ONGOING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STIR UP ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, LIKELY
RESULTING IN RESTRICTED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
SHOULD SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AMID THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTSIDE OF STRONG WINDS
PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORMS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15KTS COULD
BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TONIGHT, MEDIUM ON WEDNESDAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/20/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND/OR LOW STRATUS, ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
BRIEF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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