912
FXUS61 KRLX 191732
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY,
AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA, AND A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE REGION. STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT DETAILS, BUT WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW
AIR, COMBINED WITH ENHANCED ASCENT FROM THE PASSING LOW, ALONG WITH
OVERALL MEAN FLOW ALIGNING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING FOR REPEATED CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG IT, AN AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN
PARTICULAR, AND THIS, COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED
CONDITIONS, HAS WARRANTED ISSUANCE OF A WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE WAVE IS FINALLY
ABLE TO EXIT TO OUR EAST AND WE DRY OUT LATER IN THE DAY. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT, ALTHOUGH WITH ANY STORM/WIND GUST, TREES WILL FALL IN
THE SATURATED CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY,
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER TROUGH
GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SE OHIO, ALTHOUGH
TERMINALS IN NORTH CENTRAL WV COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY STORMS.
STORM COVERAGE WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-
031-032.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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