571
FXUS61 KRLX 090220
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. DRY WITH A MILDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A CLIPPER CROSSES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 920 PM MONDAY...
ALLOWED THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE, WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WAS HANGING
TOUGH IN CENTRAL WV. MENTIONED ICE FROM EARLIER SNOW MELT
KEEPING ROADS SLICK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SAME THAT EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
THAN THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS DID.
AS OF 735 PM MONDAY...
ALLOWED THE ADVISORIES EXPIRING AT 7 PM IN CENTRAL WV TO
EXPIRE. THE SNOWFALL IN WV WAS WINDING DOWN EVER SO SLOWLY, AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.
AS OF 505 PM MONDAY...
ALLOWED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORIES EXPIRE BUT EXTENDED
A NORTHERN PORTION OF IT IN CENTRAL WV, THAT WAS ALSO EXPIRING
AT 5 PM, UNTIL 7 PM. ALSO UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER
EXODUS OF THE SNOWSTORM THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE REMAINING
ADVISORIES FOR REFREEZE UPON NIGHTFALL THIS COLD EVENING.
AS OF 1225 PM MONDAY...
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SHOW THE SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF, A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NOTE: TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY
WATER ON ROADS WILL FREEZE. THIS COULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW HAS ENDED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1255 PM MONDAY...
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
GENERALLY CREATE A RAIN SCENARIO IN GENERAL, ALTHOUGH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN SNOW.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTY WINDS, PROVIDING AN UPSLOPE SNOW SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...
A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL THEN EFFECT THE AREA FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS STRUGGLE ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THE COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AS WELL.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 735 PM MONDAY...
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT CRW, EKN AND BKW WERE IMPROVING THIS
EVENING, AS THE SNOWFALL WAS WINDING DOWN. CRW SHOULD BE VFR
OVERNIGHT BUT MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL REFORM DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, BEFORE BREAKING UP FOR A VFR
AFTERNOON. EKN VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE BREAKING UP AND ALLOWING
FOR A VFR BALANCE OF THE DAY. BKW VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT IFR CEILINGS THERE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, AND THEN BREAKING UP AND ALLOWING FOR
VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING ON. IN ADDITION, VLIFR DENSE
FOG IS FORECAST TO FORM THERE OVERNIGHT, AND DISSIPATE AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, HTS HAD ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT, BUT LOW MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO IFR STRATUS WILL
REFORM DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, BEFORE
BREAKING UP FOR A VFR AFTERNOON. CKB AND PKB WERE VFR, BUT MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS WILL REFORM DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY, BEFORE BREAKING UP FOR A VFR BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.
PKB REMAINS VFR THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT AS SNOW
ENDS TONIGHT COULD VARY. FOG MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FORECAST AT
BKW OVERNIGHT. EXTENT OF MORNING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TUESDAY MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M M M M L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IN A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND THEN IN MAINLY SNOW BY
FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
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