308
FXUS61 KRLX 221758
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON FOR
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GROWS IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.
2) IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SETTLES
INTO THE REGION ALONGSIDE A BRIEF COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARNEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO PASS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
PRECEDING THE FRONT HAS YIELDED OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR CUMULUS
TO QUICKLY DEVELOP FURTHER INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH DESTABILIZATION QUICKLY ARISING, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED IN COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THIS WATCH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA,
WHERE SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WATCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TO DETERMINE HOW THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHAKE OUT.
STORMS PRECEDING THE FRONT TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. WHILE SOME SOIL RECOVERY HAS OCCURRED IN
LOCATIONS WHO RECENTLY FACED A MULTITUDE OF DAYS FEATURING
FLOODING, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD INVIGORATE FURTHER HYDRO IMPACTS
ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE A RESPONSE FROM INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL
RATES, BUT LOCATIONS WOULD THEN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY TRAINING
EFFECTS THAT MAY SET UP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.
CONVECTION MARCHES INTO THE POST-SUNSET TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BANK UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WRAP UP ALTOGETHER BY DAYBREAK ONCE
THE FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE START OF
DRY WEATHER THAT STRETCHES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL YIELD A PUSH OF DRY
AIR, ALONGSIDE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL SPAN
THE 60S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, WHILE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE LOW
TEMPERATURES TUMBLING DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHEN A WARMING TREND INSTIGATES DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS
TODAY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES ADVERTISING AN
UPTICK IN WINDS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN THE EVENT A STORM
PASSES OVER THE AIRFIELD. CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, SO CARRIED A MENTION OF THUNDER
THAT SPILLS INTO THE NEW ZULU DAY ACROSS THE BOARD.
THE FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS BANKING
UP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND
EXCESSIVE MOISTURE WILL STIR UP ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ONCE FOG EROSION TRANSPIRES AFTER SUNRISE, THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD WILL BRANCH BACK OUT INTO VFR CONDITIONS AND KICK
OFF A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF STORMS MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
LOW STRATUS MAY VARY THIS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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