906
FXUS61 KRLX 010008
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
708 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED WITH A CLIPPER PASSING TONIGHT. A QUIET
STRETCH OF WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 705 PM WEDNESDAY...
RADAR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE ONSET SNOW AND SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED REMAINS
ON TRACK.
EXPECT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING AND PAST MIDNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A WINTER STORM ARRIVES JUST BEFORE THE STROKE OF MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE START OF THE NEW
YEAR.
* HEAVY SNOW MAY YIELD ACCUMULATIONS RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, AND 1 TO 4
INCHES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL GO
INTO EFFECT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS WE AWAIT A WINTER STORM THAT IS SET TO
RING IN THE NEW YEAR. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH LATER THIS EVENING, BUT CAN BE SEEN CURRENTLY ON NATIONAL
MOSAIC RADARS CHURNING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. BEFORE THIS
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TO RING IN THE NEW YEAR, ONGOING FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FROM A PREVIOUS CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA. AFTER A QUICK
DISCUSSION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LOCAL PARTNERS,
OPTED TO BEGIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING A FEW HOURS SOONER THAN
ORIGINALLY PLANNED TO CAPTURE THE LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE BEGINNING
TO LAY ALONG THE ROADWAYS.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES IN THE FORM OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GO
INTO EFFECT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED
SNOW TRACKING IN LATER ON THIS NEW YEARS EVE. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
SAIL SOUTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL ENVELOP
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE BALL DROPS AT MIDNIGHT. WHILE
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AS ALL SNOW TONIGHT, ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING FROM TODAY COULD YIELD A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF THE
KANAWHA VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO
ALL SNOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BEST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL STEER THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF NEW YEARS DAY AND SUPPLY THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOCKED DOWN FOR THE PAST
FORECAST CYCLES, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES OBSERVED WITH THE
LATEST PACKAGE. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO
10 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE THE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARING
A FOOT OF SNOW COULD BE ACHIEVED ON THE RIDGETOPS OF OUR
MOUNTAIN ZONES. AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 1 TO 4 INCHES REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR THE LOWLANDS AND FOOTHILLS, TRENDING LOWER THE FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA YOU GO. LESSER AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
LOWER ARE PROGGED FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
ALL WINTER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HI-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY DEPICT A SHARP BOUNDARY,
DENOTING THE ARCTIC FRONT, RACING DOWN FROM DAWN INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, AND WILL YIELD THE END OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER ITS
PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
PROMOTING PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN ADDITION TO WINTER WEATHER, GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALIGN
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND COULD CAUSE GUSTS AS
STRONG AS WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ALONGSIDE BLOWING SNOW.
ADDITIONAL WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE STRONGER WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST PERIOD OPENS UP WITH THE RETURN OF DRY WEATHER
UNDER THE GUISE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER TO THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AMID PATCHES OF SUNSHINE.
MAIN CONUNDRUM WITHIN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ENCROACHING ALONG A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. AFTER PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES OPTED FOR
A DRIER SOLUTION, THE 12Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERN
PRECIP SHIELD WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SKATE THROUGH THE
COALFIELDS AND CENTRAL LOWLANDS. THERMAL PROFILES AT THE TIME OF
ARRIVAL SUGGESTS MOSTLY RAIN, BUT SPECKLES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SAILS INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE APEX OF
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
APPEARS TO RETURN TO A DRIER STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD
FROM THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL
YIELD A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, REACHING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONDITIONS IMPROVED TEMPORARILY AS THE PREVIOUS CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITED EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
RADAR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM METARS SUGGESTS AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW APPROACHING SE OH AND NORTHERN WV AT THE TIME OF
WRITING. HAVE TIMED SNOW ONSET AT PKB BY 02Z, AND CKB BY 03Z.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SNOW AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS BY
06Z ALONG AND NEARBY THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, HAVE CODED
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 04Z THROUGH
11Z THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LOWLANDS TERMINALS, AND UP TO 25 KNOTS AT BKW AND EKN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CEILINGS MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING, BUT LINGERING SNOW BANDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY STILL PRODUCE TEMPORARILY IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS TERMINALS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AFFECTING BKW AND EKN THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SNOW TONIGHT MAY
CAUSE FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES TO VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
WVZ008>011-013>020-025>031-034-515>517-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ032-039-
040-518>523-525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ARJ
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