062
FXUS61 KRLX 170529
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER EARLY
THIS WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 0530Z.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF VERY HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
2) DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF HOT
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OUT OF THE NEXT THREE.
THIS SUMMERLIKE WEATHER IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC, BRINGING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
HEAT SAFETY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SINCE MAY HAS BEEN COOLER THAN AVERAGE SO FAR, AND
THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE FIRST STRETCHES OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS
SHOULD TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE AIR CONDITIONING OR IN THE
SHADE. STAY ADEQUATELY HYDRATED DURING THIS STRETCH. IT'S ALSO
IMPORTANT TO CHECK ON THOSE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO
THE HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. THEN, THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A WETTER
PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS ALL DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND A
CONSTANT STREAM OF 500-MB VORTICITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CURRENTLY, THE WETTEST PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MAY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75" TO 1.25". GIVEN THAT MOST OF
WEST VIRGINIA IS CATEGORIZED IN EITHER D1 MODERATE DROUGHT OR D2
SEVERE DROUGHT RIGHT NOW, THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE LARGELY
BENEFICIAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BRING VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR
ACROSS SOME TERMINALS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE IS
PREVIOUSLY RAINED YESTERDAY. TERMINALS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED
INCLUDE CRW, HTS, CKB, AND EKN. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 12Z OR 13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT MAY BE MORE OR LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/17/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
CLIMATE...26
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