852
FXUS61 KRLX 221722
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST, AND
BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BEYOND THE TYPICAL BOUTS OF MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, DRY WEATHER
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY MORNING FROST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, AN OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
LOWER 48, WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE APEX OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS, WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE SUPERPOSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RELATIVE TO
THE CWA WILL MAINTAIN CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, KEEPING THE FORMATION
OF EVEN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BOUNDARY-LAYER CU FROM OCCURRING EACH
AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE
USUAL DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS, WITH VISIBILITIES
FALLING TO ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES; AND FOG OF ANY KIND WILL ERODE
BY 14-15Z EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS
WERE MADE TO THE DEWPOINTS FOR THE FORTHCOMING AFTERNOONS DUE TO THE
FULL INSOLATION, ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED TUNING OF THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MODIFYING MP
AIRMASS TRAILING THE DECAYED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FROST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IN CHECK; HOWEVER, PATCHY FROST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN NEAR AND AFTER 23/08Z. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY
23/14-15Z. SIGWX NIL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE OTHERWISE, WITH LIGHT,
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS SET TO RETURN EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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