658
FXUS61 KRLX 152326
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
726 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE. MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN TRIMMED OUT OF THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE LATEST WPC OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY, STEMMING FROM A
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE AXIS OF PROJECTED HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY, HOT, AND MUGGY WEATHER HANGS ABOUT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE INFLUENTIAL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
LINGER FURTHER INTO THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.
2) TURNING ACTIVE ONCE MORE BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY ONWARD WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SERVING UP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SOME OF WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRONG DIURNAL RISES ARE UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AMID AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE SUPPLYING DRY
WEATHER HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH
IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES
STRETCHING INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND
70S/80S ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WHILE TURNING MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK,
DISCUSSED IN GREATER DETAIL IN KEY MESSAGE 2, THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FESTERS INTO THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAIN PLANTED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED TO THE NORTH. ONCE THIS FRONT
VENTURES THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT SLATED TO
OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
DAILY HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO TRIUMPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DRAPED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
CURRENTLY POSITIONED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, WILL GRADUALLY ENCROACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS INFLUENTIAL
HIGH PRESSURE ERODES. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN
INCREASING IN EARNEST FOR THURSDAY ONWARD AS THE BOUNDARY
RESIDES IN CLOSE QUARTERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL FAIL TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG, RESULTING IN A MULTI-DAY
STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
CONVECTIVE SIGNALS DO NOT YET REFLECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE WILL BE GREATER CONCERN ONCE
AGAIN FOR HIGH WATER ISSUES THAT ARISE WITHIN THIS WEATHER
PATTERN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING STORMS WILL TACK ON AN
ABUNDANCE OF RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS THAT WILL
LEAD TO LOCALIZED TO AREAWIDE FLOODING, SEEN REPEATEDLY SO FAR
THIS SUMMER AND EARLY FALL. THIS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP EACH DAY. LATEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK THAT
WAS INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN A NORTHWARD TREND IN MODEL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL HOVERING OVER
THE REGION THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO INITIALLY OVERCOME.
PROCEEDING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN RAINFALL TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP, THE MARGINAL RISK WILL BE DEEPLY ROOTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH UPGRADES TO A SLIGHT CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS HEADING INTO DAWN SHOULD
SERVE TO KEEP A BULK OF ANY FOG CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS WITH
LESSER RISK OF MAKING IT UP ONTO THE RIDGETOP FIELDS. IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE MOST LIKELY AT EKN WITH SOME LESSER
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS IN VERY LOW CLOUDS (FOG LIFTED
OUT OF THE VALLEY) AT CRW/PKB. ANY RESTRICTIONS DISSIPATE
THROUGH 12-13Z. A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE WESTERN
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED
GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR BKW IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY
GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG COVERAGE, TIMING, AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/16/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, MOST LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS IN
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...JP
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