285
FXUS61 KRLX 290635
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE,
GIVING WAY TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
2. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
3. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OBSERVATIONS AT THIS HOUR INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION, PARTICULARLY WITHIN RIVER VALLEYS, WITH VISIBILITY
ALREADY DROPPING TO LESS THAN A MILE AT SOME AIRPORT LOCATIONS.
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
IS SLIGHTLY IMPEDING WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAY
DELAY ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION IN SOME AREAS. WILL LIKELY ISSUE
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING TO COVER
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN FOG FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY, PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS PRIOR TO THE CORE OF
THE APPROACHING RIDGE GETTING OVERHEAD. THE KINEMATIC PROFILE
SUPPORTS UNORGANIZED, PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H500 RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL YIELD HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. CENTRAL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FORECASTS WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
HAS A KNOWN HIGH BIAS REGARDING DEW POINTS DURING THESE SYNOPTIC
SETUPS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST DEVIATES FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE
BY DROPPING MIXED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S.
EVEN WITH THESE REDUCED DEW POINTS, THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
90S AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
NEARING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, PLACING MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS
INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. SOME LOW END WARNING CRITERIA (105F) IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES IT WAS
DECIDED TO DEFER THE PRODUCT DECISION TO THE DAY SHIFT GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON
MIXED DEW POINTS, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT HEADLINES
OF SOME DESCRIPTION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS THE H500 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE REGION WILL TRANSITION INTO A
TROPICALLY INFLUENCED WEAK FLOW WITH WEAKER SUBSIDENCE. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA, OFFERING
LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT, BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING CELEBRATIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN
MURKY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN VALLEY FOG. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION ARE PRESENTING A SLIGHT HINDRANCE TO WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG FORMATION AS THEY PASS WHICH COULD DELAY ADDITIONAL FOG
FORMATION BY A COUPLE HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 13Z AS
THE MORNING INVERSION MIXES OUT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP UNDER DAYTIME HEATING, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO IN THE
EKN/BKW FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FORMATION AND DISSIPATION OF FOG
MAY VARY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
APPROACH EKN/BKW THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/29/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M M L L H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L M L L L L M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H M H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L L H H M M
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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