247
FXUS61 KRLX 280913
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
513 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST WRAPS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A WARMING TREND BRINGING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL DRIVE A NOTICEABLE
WARMING TREND, WITH LOWLAND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SURGING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BURNS OFF THIS MORNING, SOME MVFR CLOUDS
COULD PERSIST TODAY AND THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA, BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM AGAIN TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SOME MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 09/28/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L M H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY MORNING. IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page