554
FXUS61 KRLX 011625
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1225 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE
NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
500-MB ENERGY WILL TRANSFER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW. THIS ENERGY
TRANSFER MAY TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS, ONLY YIELDING 0.10 TO 0.20 INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH OMEGA HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, EACH NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, COOL,
AND CALM WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL
BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE GROUND AND
ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER PROGRESSIVELY DRY OUT EACH DAY.
THE NEXT AREA-WIDE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
BUT EVEN THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS, LIKE THE GFS, SHOW
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, REINTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES. IN CONTRAST,
OTHER MODELS, LIKE THE ECMWF, KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN FULL CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY IFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCRW AND KEKN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z TUESDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR RETURNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THIS WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page