830
FXUS61 KRLX 200605
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER RETURNS FOR MOST OF THE
WORK WEEK, BUT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECT ON TUESDAY BUT IS MAINLY MOISTURE STARVED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PIVOTING OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING TAKING ALL THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. BY 12Z, THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY STATUS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. CLEARING OF
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE TODAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE, BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
SUPPRESSED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS, AND MID 40S TO
MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE
RAIN EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST, THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS
MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DIMINISHES BY A LITTLE BEFORE 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES SETTLED WEATHER GOING INTO
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
FOCUS TURNS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
CLIPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES AND SWEEPING ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL NOT BE MOISTURE LADEN AS
SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE HAS LOW CHANCES FOR POPS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL ENDURE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH
WRAP AROUND FLOW WITH A MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GREAT LAKES
PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
OF THE MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH
SORT OF A MOISTURE STARVED SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALMOST NIL.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH AND
ALLOW THE AREA TO ERADICATE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WHICH WILL HELP KEEP IT DRY GOING PAST
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY FAIRLY SEASONABLE BUT WILL START
TO DROP BELOW PAST MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
GETTING PAST MIDWEEK WE START TO DROP BELOW SEASONABLE
ARE FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED TO WHERE BY THURSDAY
MORNING FROST POTENTIAL WILL COME INTO PAY AS WELL AS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAWIDE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY KILL OFF THE REST OF THE
GROWING SEASON AREAS THAT ARE STILL ACTIVE, IF ANY BY THEN.
BY THE WEEKEND, A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA
PROMOTING CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MID WEEKEND AND CONTINUING TO KEEP
CHANCES ON THE TABLE GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. BY THIS TIME
MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY, THEREFORE THE POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
HIGH FOR THIS KIND OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT ELECTED TO GO WITH
CENTRAL GUIDANCE FROM THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION WHICH EQUATED
TO LOW END SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
GOING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
A GRADUAL CLEARING FOR WEST TO EAST WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT
SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. BEFORE CLEARING OUT, THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING, HOWEVER CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THEREAFTER. GUSTY CONDITONS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD
WITH AROUND 20-25KTS EXPECTED ON AND OFF. VFR WILL THEN DOMINATE
INTO TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/20/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ520-522>524-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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