075  
FXUS61 KRLX 130717  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
317 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH, CHANCES INCREASE AREA WIDE TONIGHT.  
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING A SHOWERY AND COOL  
PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...  
 
SHOWERS OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS ENDING THIS MORNING. BRIEF, VERY  
BRIEF, RIDGING ALOFT REPLACES THE UPPER LOW THAT DEPARTED FOR  
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP  
SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH  
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL  
WITH WEAK MOMENTS OF PVA PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA  
RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS  
18Z-00Z WEDNESDAY. BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD CLOSER  
TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER  
LOW PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. POP COVERAGE INCREASES TOWARDS  
THE 12Z TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL F-GEN STRENGTHENS. NAM LOOKS  
LIKE NORTHERN OUTLIER, AND WILL GO WITH THE CLUSTERING OF THE  
ARW/NMM/HREF CENTERED CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS. NOT A GREAT FEED  
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY ALSO A NON FACTOR, SO NO  
THUNDER IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH  
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS  
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, WHICH MAY ALSO BE  
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON  
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL  
LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. NOT  
EXPECTING A LOT OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH CURRENT  
FORECAST AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE  
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTHEAST WV. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS ARE  
PUSHING THIS AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE  
NORTHWEST.  
 
A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY LINGER  
ALONG THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE  
UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY DIPS SOUTHWARD, CLOSER TO THE AREA, AS IT  
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST. A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW COULD BE  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES FALL  
INTO THE NIGHT, BUT CURRENTLY EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO  
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FROST AS TEMPERATURES MAY DIP LOW ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO  
PROVIDE THESE CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...  
 
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE NORTHEAST INTO  
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. BY FRIDAY  
NIGHT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A  
QUICK DRIER PERIOD BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES PICK UP YET AGAIN AS  
MODELS INDICATE EITHER ANOTHER UPPER LOW OR UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHING APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS SHOW THIS  
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WORK WEEK,  
WITH THE GFS SLOWER TO BRING IT THROUGH THAN THE CANADIAN AND  
ECMWF. THE MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENERGIES  
IN WHICH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF KEEP SEPARATED AS THE FEATURE  
MOVES IN WHILE THE GFS MERGES THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS  
AS IT FINALLY BRINGS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. AS  
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGHING MOVES IN, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH  
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...  
 
SHOWERS ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER  
FOR THE CKB AND EKN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CKB COULD GET INTO LATE  
FOG ONCE THE RIBBON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSOLVES AWAY, AND  
TAKE VISIBILITIES TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.  
 
THERE IS A STRIPE OF VALLEY FOG FROM NICHOLAS COUNTY-POINT  
PLEASANT 3I2-ATHENS UNI WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES. THIS SHOULD STAY  
OUT OF CRW/PKB/HTS FOR THE MOST PART, BUT BRIEF LATE MVFR IS  
POSSIBLE AS THE SUN COMES UP.  
 
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH TIME.  
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SW TO NE TOWARDS THE 06Z  
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND BEYOND.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY  
MAY BE OF GREATER COVERAGE THAN TAFS INDICATE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE TUE 04/13/21  
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M M L H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...  
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...26/CG  
NEAR TERM...26  
SHORT TERM...CG  
LONG TERM...CG  
AVIATION...26  
 
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