026
FXUS61 KRLX 252332
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE, BUT THE OVERALL THEME
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.
- 2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WET VIRGINIA, LEADING TO RENEWED CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- 3) STORM CHANCES WILL COME OT AN END SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES FORECAST DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S., WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. A BELT OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
TRAILED THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WAS CONTAMINATED WITH SEVERAL
CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED VORTICITY LOBES THAT WERE ROTATING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE RUST BELT. FLOW THROUGHOUT THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WAS
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH THE 12Z UA CHARTS OBSERVING THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 250 MB JET STREAK NEAR 100 KT THAT WAS NOW APPROACHING THE
CWA PER RECENT WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH THE CORE OF THE 500 MB JET
STREAK ANALYZED NEAR 50 KT SET TO EMERGE OVER THE STATE OF WV LATER
THIS EVENING. A SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN, LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINED VEERED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, AND WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 20 KT
OVER THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT
INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WATERSHED.
AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWESTERN MI, WITH
THE RESPECTIVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MI AND INTO
CENTRAL IL. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH, ALBEIT DIFFUSE, IS EVIDENT
ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER,
WHERE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN EVIDENT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM AMIDST THE MOISTURE RETURN, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S
OBSERVED IN LOCALES NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRESENCE OF THE
NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO SLOSH EASTWARD AMIDST THE
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER MAY RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.
12Z RAOBS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA THIS MORNING OBSERVED ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS ALOFT, AND WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTINUING TO
ADVECT TOWARDS THE OH RIVER VALLEY, MODERATE INSTABILITY UPWARDS OF
1,500 J/KG TO LOCALLY 2,000 J/KG WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES BY DUSK. DESPITE BOUNDARY-PARALLEL SHEAR VECTORS, ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING OF ANY CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE,
WHICH WOULD DRIVE A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT. SMALL HAIL (<1.0-INCH
IN DIAMETER) MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT WITH WARM-CLOUD
DEPTHS TO 12 KFT AGL AND MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE
MID-LEVELS WILL TEMPER THE SEVERE HAIL RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY STRONG OR SEVERE-CALIBER STORMS, BUT THE
FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE OF SUCH
STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
JACKSON TO MCCONNELSVILLE IN SOUTHEASTERN OH.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE STORMS IS
THEN FORECAST TO EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THERMAL INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE
WARMING IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, BUT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. BRIEF SPURTS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS, BUT A PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT TO THE SHOWERS
WILL MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, LOW STRATUS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE THICKER ANVIL DEBRIS ALOFT, AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE FRIDAY MORNING AMIDST LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ON WILL EJECT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SEMI-PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO EMERGE INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY WHILE THE CWA BECOMES POSITIONED BENEATH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE
REGION TO THE 300 MB JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE, THE SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR, PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT CONTENT, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS VALUES BETWEEN 1.80-2.00",
WHICH EXCEEDS THE 99TH PERCENTILE, IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF
FRONTAL-PARALLEL STEERING FLOW AT AROUND 40 KT, WILL FACILITATE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RESERVOIR OF THERMAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED, ALTHOUGH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WEAKER THAN THE DAY BEFORE
DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER, WILL AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF EFFICIENT
RAINFALL REGARDLESS IF STORMS ARE SEVERE OR NOT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GREATER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS WHERE 3-5" OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SWATHS OF 1-2" OF RAINFALL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LATE FRIDAY. CELLS THAT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED MAY PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN TWO INCHES, WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR
TRAINING TO EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ON A LOCALIZED
SCALE. DOWNSHEAR CORFIDI VECTORS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL OFFSET A
MORE-SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EPISODE FROM MATERIALIZING LATE
FRIDAY, AS THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FAVORS FAST PROGRESSION OF ANY
ORGANIZED BANDS AND/OR CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP, WITH THE PROVISO FOR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS (I.E., TRAINING).
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN FORECAST SATURDAY,
BUT THE MESOSCALE DETAILS REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR AND WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON HOW LONG CONVECTION LASTS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
FRIDAY. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT OVER THE
CWA SATURDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING THE RAIN SHIELD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT WITH ERODING THERMAL INSTABILITY ALOFT
AND WEAKENING STEERING FLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER
CONVECTION IS LOW. REGARDLESS, WITH THE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, RAPID RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL QPF IS
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE
TENURE OF THIS MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. MUCH HOTTER WEATHER REMAINS FORECAST
HEADING INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TO AROUND 594 DAM BY TUESDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY
CENTERING OVER THE MIDDLE TN RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY, WITH HIGHS BREACHING INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. POPS
ARE CURRENTLY NIL DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES THAT EMERGE OVER THE
APEX OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL, LIGHT WINDS, AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFFECTING TAF SITES KHTS, KPKB, AND KCKB
THROUGH 04Z-07Z, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTERWARDS, WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE MID-OHIO
VALLEY REGION, POSSIBLY AFFECTING SITES KPKB AND KCKB, ALTHOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 20Z, AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
STORMS FRIDAY WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND BRIEF IFR OR
WORSE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY CONTINUE LONGER THAN
FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/26/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF -SHRA/-TSRA ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH -TSRA, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW FOG AND STRATUS EACH MORNING SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SL
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