663
FXUS61 KRLX 160941
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
541 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS DECREASED AND TRENDED
DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES DUE TO LACK OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, THOUGH NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
THREAT REMAINS ROBUST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS, STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD, POSSIBLE SEASON ENDING
FROST/FREEZE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
3) INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA PROMOTING DRY WEATHER AFTER SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING FOR A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIVING DUE EAST WHILE DRAGGING A SHARP COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A HIGH SHEAR AND LOW
INSTABILITY TYPE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DCAPE AND ANOMOUSLY
HIGH PWATS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
HOWEVER STRONG FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
TRANSPORT STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG WITHOUT CAUSING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE
FLOODING ISSUES.
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD WIDEPSREAD WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GUSTS UP TO 40MPH+ ARE PROBABLE AS THE FRONT CLEARS OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE A NON-DIURNAL DAY AND AFTER MID
MORNING STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S TEMPERATURES WILL
CRASH INTO THE 50S FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AROUND SNOWSHOE, WV BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER THAN 10% OF
THAT OCCURRING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION ENDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST EFFECTIVELY SCOURING OUT CLOUDS AND
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WINDS ALONG WITH A COLD MODIFIED
AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO PLUMMET
SIGNIFICANTLY. NBM DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
STRONGLY INDICATES LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE BOARD.
PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER THAN 32 DEGREES EXCEEDED 90% FOR
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. THE BROADER LOWLANDS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA SUGGESTS A 60-80% CHANCES OF SEEING A HARD FREEZE.
THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LIKELY ENDING THE GROWING SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DENSE
FREEZING RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER RIVER
BASINS EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WE ALL DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW. NEIGHBORS DID NOT WANT TO GO
WITH ONE JUST YET SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT IT AND
START A COLLABORATION AGAIN. REGARDLESS, WE WILL NEED HEADLINES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHTS FROST/FREEZE THAT IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HEADED IN TO NEXT WEEK PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR ZERO
CONTINUING AN ABNORMALLY DRY PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF
RETREATING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST A BROAD
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATE FROM
THE MIDWEST TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL YIELD A STEADY WARMING
TREND BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
BY MIDWEEK WITH PLEASANT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN THEME WITH THIS TAF PERIOD IS MVFR CIGS PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD TO WHERE THE MOUNTAINS SITES
WILL LIKELY ENDURE IFR CIGS TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE SITES
SHOULD STAY JUST OVER IFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND WILL MAINTAIN A GUSTY STATUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WILL BE LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. VIS RESTRICTIONS
UNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY AND AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH BY THE MID AFTERNOON A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WILL TAKE PLACE. ANY WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE NEGATED UNLESS THE
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE IN INTENSITY WHICH THEY ARE FORECAST NOT
TOO. SATURDAY MORNING FOG IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR CLOUD COVERAGE AND ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS MAY DROP EVEN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS
FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR LATE-NIGHT AND
EARLY-MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG PRODUCING LIFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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