831
FXUS61 KRLX 092332
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK, YIELDING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AMID A SUBTLE
WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH QUIET WEATHER AND SOME
RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED.
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...
OVERALL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW RH, BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
DURING THE PERIOD. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE FROM A LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG
THE COAST WEDNESDAY MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE WEST TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ZONES, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW, AND MAIN
EFFECT MAY JUST BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AS
A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. NUDGES EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...
THE TREND FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, ALONG WITH LOW RH'S, BUT WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT, MITIGATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE BULK OF THE TIME
ACROSS THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD. VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING LESS
EXTENSIVE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT KEKN, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR
POSSIBLE AT KCRW AND KPKB AS WELL. CAN'T RULE OUT FOG AT HTS OR
CKB, BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THERE. THE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z TUESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME GENTLE BREEZES TOMORROW, MAINLY FROM THE NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK/SL
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