083  
FXUS61 KRLX 180005  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
805 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LESS  
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK, THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
THE REGION FINDS ITSELF WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS  
AFTERNOON. A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON,  
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. MOST  
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
CWA WHERE UPPER LEVEL FORCING COURTESY OF PVA IS GREATEST.  
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS  
EVENING, QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. KEPT POPS AT SLT/CHC  
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEASONABLY COOL, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS.  
 
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.  
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER APPROXIMATELY 11 PM AND  
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS BY DAWN. DUE EXPECT FOG TO BE SLIGHTLY  
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING, GIVEN AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF  
DRYING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY ~13Z IN  
MOST LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE REGION.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A CUMULUS FIELD WILL  
DEVELOP BEGINNING LATE MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN  
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO SLT  
FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S FOR  
THE LOWLANDS, WITH MID 60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE  
AREA FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, IT MAY PICK UP A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE  
GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING IT MAINLY EAST  
OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL, CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY WARRANTED  
KEEPING HIGHER POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT  
MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNALLY ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES  
NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MAKE INROADS INTO THE REGION  
SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER  
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST TX AND THE GULF COAST WHICH MAY INCREASE THE FLASH  
FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH A THREAT WILL  
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.  
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GREATEST MOISTURE  
ADVECTION WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MONDAY. STILL,  
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0800 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT FOG WILL  
FORM RATHER QUICKLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AFTER 0300Z, ESPECIALLY IN  
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING (I.E. BKW AND CKB).  
VLIFR AND LIFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION. EXPECTING  
THE FOG TO LIFT AROUND 1300-1330Z PROMOTING MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS  
IN THE MORNING, BEFORE A SCT CU DECK SHOULD FORM BETWEEN 1500-1600Z.  
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER 1800Z FOR THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS WV AND SW VA.  
 
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF  
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT DUE TO FOG MAY VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE THU 08/18/22  
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11  
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M M M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M M M M M  
 
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...  
IFR FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...30/GW  
NEAR TERM...GW  
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM...30  
AVIATION...LTC  
 
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