418
FXUS61 KRLX 191029
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
629 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
303 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE DAY 1/DAY 2 SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOKS IN OUR FORECAST AREA, STILL CARRYING MARGINAL
RISKS FOR BOTH DAYS AMID THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY ON TAP TODAY BEFORE RELIEF
ARRIVES FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE CHALLENGED TODAY.
2) A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SERVE
UP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
ONCE AGAIN SERVE UP UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES OBSERVED RECORD BREAKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN SET UP YESTERDAY,
AND COULD ONCE AGAIN BE CHALLENGED TODAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS SOAR
INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 80S ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A COLD FRONT, SPOKEN ABOUT IN GREATER DETAIL BELOW IN
KEY MESSAGE 2, WILL BRING A RELIEF FROM THIS EARLY SEASON WARM
SPELL, RETURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THEIR SEASONABLE NORM
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOMS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN, ONE MORE MOSTLY DRY DAY IS ON TAP FOR
THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT ATTEMPT TO SPROUT WITHIN AFTERNOON CUMULUS
FIELDS AROUND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PIVOT IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALIGNED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY FORMING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH OHIO AND INDIANA AND PROMOTING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THIS LINE APPROACHES THE WESTERN FLANK OF OUR FORECAST AREA
AFTER SUNSET, THIS SHARP LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR
APART AND FADE DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SPC CONTINUES
TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR
SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES BEFORE TRAILING OFF INTO A GENERAL RISK
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT REMAINS SLUGGISH IN ITS JOURNEY
OVERHEAD, AND WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE UP AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVERAGE NOW IN PLACE, INSTABILITY WILL BE HARDER TO COME
BY FOR THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND FORESEE MOST OF THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL THEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE A COMPLETE FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH
PREVENTING FORWARD PROGRESS EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE, THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY RETREAT
NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRY ANTECEDENT GROUND
CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP KEEP FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY, BUT LOW
LYING AREAS AND KNOWN TROUBLE SPOTS COULD BEGIN TO SEE
LOCALIZED ISSUES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND DEPENDING UPON RADAR
TRENDS AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN SETS UP AMID THE
STAGNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER OUR
AIRSPACE THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO AN AFTERNOON
CUMULUS FIELD. VALLEY FOG HOVERS BELOW THE RUNWAY AT CRW THIS
MORNING DUE TO A PASSING SHOWER LATE THIS PAST EVENING, BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE NOW THAT THE SUN HAS BEGUN TO RISE.
ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET, ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY HOT, WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED STORMS COULD FORM IN THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITHIN AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS OR LIGHT
RAIN PASSING OVER A CERTAIN AIRFIELD WITH THIS ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LEADING THE INVASION OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ENCROACH PKB AND HTS SHORTLY AFTER THE CONCLUSION
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH BREEZES
OF 15-25 KTS OCCURRING AT TIMES FROM LATE THIS MORNING ONWARD,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVER A
TAF SITE MAY PROMOTE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/19/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED ON MONDAY.
OBSERVED / PRIOR RECORDS
----------------------------------
CRW | 93 (RECORD) / 92 (1962) |
HTS | 92 (TIED) / 92 (1906) |
BKW | 88 (RECORD) / 87 (1962) |
EKN | 90 (RECORD) / 89 (1911) |
----------------------------------
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE CHALLENGED ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
---------------------
TUE, 5/19 |
---------------------
CRW | 91 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 90 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 89 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 90 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 87 / 93 (1996) |
---------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...05/GW
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