867
FXUS61 KRLX 170004
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
804 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
1244 PM UPDATE...
STILL WATCHING FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY THURSDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT, AND THIS IS MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
2) BEYOND THURSDAY, A QUIETER PATTERN WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OHIO FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING, AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF IT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY WITH 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE INDICATING ROBUST STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 200-300 M2/S2 DURING THIS TIME, ALONG WITH EHI
VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 1-2. THIS COULD BE INDICATIVE OF ROTATING
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER THE MAIN ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE IN THE MORNING OR IF THERE MIGHT BE AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THURSDAY
MORNING'S ROUND IS WIDESPREAD AND HAS MORE LONGEVITY THAN EXPECTED,
IT MAY STEAL SOME ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY FROM THE AFTERNOON'S POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, SOME MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF ROBUST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO THIS BEARS WATCHING
OVER THE COMING DAYS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WILL BEGIN SIMULATING
THURSDAY'S THREATS BY THIS EVENING'S 00Z MODEL RUNS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT OF
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY
CROSS OVER THE SAME AREAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 1.80 TO 2.25 INCHES DURING THIS TIME, INDICATIVE OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING THREATS MENTIONED
ABOVE, WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT GUSTS TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 MPH FOR
MOST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEYOND THURSDAY, A QUIETER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AMID HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOL
NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WAVE
OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PACKAGE
(UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY). FEW-SCT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR EASTERN/SOUTHERN WV. MVFR
VSBY CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT AT EKN W/ FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LIFTS /
DISSIPATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULDN'T
POSE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AMID A
SCT DIURNAL CU FIELD (045-070).
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZES OF 15-20
KTS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE BEGINNING LATE MORNING ONWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT OCCUR AT EKN LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME STORMS
HEAVY AND STRONG TO SEVERE. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRATUS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, AND IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...GW
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