563
FXUS61 KRLX 242304
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
604 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT, BRINGING RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY FOR THANKSGIVING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM MONDAY...
WARM TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM, THEREBY MITIGATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
POTENTIAL. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH, AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD, BUT OVERALL,
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1225 PM MONDAY...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, EVENTUALLY
SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF FRONT, AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ZONES.
ALONG WITH THE FRONT, BULK OF MOISTURE QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION,
LEAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SHARPLY COLDER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND CHILLS THIS DAY
COULD DIP INTO THE 20S TO 30S AREA WIDE, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM MONDAY...
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
MOISTURE FETCH SETTING UP OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT. WEEKEND UNCERTAIN, BUT MAY START OUT DRY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 600 PM MONDAY...
A COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
A FEW PATCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
RAIN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO A PASSING SYSTEM.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR LIKELY TO OCCUR
ON TUESDAY. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITHIN RAIN.
WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TOWARDS MORNING, WITH 15-25KT GUSTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AN
INITIALLY SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
FOR TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...20
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