745
FXUS61 KRLX 230501
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL AND
SIGNIFICANT. THERE IS NOW AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HEAVY SNOWFALL, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD
AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE.
2. FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS TO FOLLOW THE
EXODUS OF THIS STORM. THIS TREND LOOKS TO SPAN THE REMAINDER OF
JANUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STILL EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE WINTER STORM, EVEN AS MOST MODELS HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS A TREND NOW THAT SUGGESTS A WARM AIR
INTRUSION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY CAUSING A CHANGE OVER
TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND FOR SOME EVEN PLAIN RAIN.
THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND
POWER INFRASTRUCTURE ARE EXPECTED. ICE ACCRETIONS AND HEAVY SNOW
WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. IT IS BEST TO PREPARE NOW FOR THESE
IMPACTS. PLAN AROUND THE STORM, NOT DURING.
THE OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER, BUT ARE STILL
MUCH TO BE DESIRED WITH LACK OF COHESIVENESS. THE GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE THE 'ODD MAN OUT' KEEPING THE P-TYPE MOSTLY ALL
SNOW WITH SOME ICE ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND OUR VA COUNTIES. IF
THIS SOLUTION OCCURS THEN OUR AREA WILL SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL (8
TO 12"-LOWLANDS AND 12 TO 15"-MOUNTAINS) AMOUNTS AND LESS ICE,
BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLUTION OCCURRING DUE TO THE WARM
NOSE.
THE CANADIAN AND ICON MODELS ARE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND KEEP
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA (6 TO 12 ACROSS THE
AREA LESS ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA). THESE MODELS
HIGHLIGHT THE WARM WEDGE WHICH WILL CREATE MORE MIXING. THESE
MODELS SHOW ICE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.25" FOR SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WV, SOUTHWESTERN VA, AND THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS ICE
SOLUTION WOULD CREATE MAJOR IMPACTS.
THE LATEST EURO AND NAM RUNS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM AIR
PROTRUSIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ICE THAN SNOW.
THE LATEST NAM PAINTS A BROAD SWATH OF 0.25" TO 0.75" OF ICE
ACCRETIONS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST
VA. THEY SHOW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW (6" TO 12") AND SLEET
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, NORTHERN WV LOWLANDS, AND
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. LESSER AMOUNTS (3" TO 6") EXIST ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA WITH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
EVEN SEEING PLAIN RAIN.
THE EURO AND NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW THE WORST CASE SCENARIOS FOR
ICE, WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR SNOW. THE
CANADIAN AND ICON MODELS ARE THE 'IN-BETWEENERS', BUT STILL
JUST AS SIGNIFICANT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND ICE.
THE LATEST BLEND OF MODELS COLORS IN A WIDESPREAD 6" TO 12"
ACROSS A BULK OF THE AREA WITH 12" TO 15" ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LOWLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. ICE AMOUNTS WITH THIS BLEND
ARE BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.25". THIS SOLUTION PAIRS CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN AND ICON, BUT STILL ONLY CARRIES A CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
ABOUT 50 TO 60%. THE AREA OF LARGEST AREA OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV (I.E. TRI-STATE AREA,
CENTRAL LOWLANDS, SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND MOUNTAINS)
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN OCCURS. A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOWFALL WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO WNW FLOW. UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS BEING POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT
THANKS TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHING THE AREA. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT WILL BE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE AND NEGATIVE DIGITS CREATING SERIOUS ISSUES WHEN
COMBINED WITH ROAD TREATMENT AND POWER OUTAGES. IT IS BEST TO
PREPARE NOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST SHOWS THESE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
LASTING THROUGH THE SUM OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE AND
NEGATIVE DIGITS. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS COULD BE COMING IN THE FUTURE BEHIND
THIS STORM.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY, THOUGH CLOUD
COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS,
WHILE 20 TO 30 KTS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page