063
FXUS61 KRLX 150946
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TDS WERE LOWERED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT A DRIER AIRMASS
UNTIL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
WERE INCREASED TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW
AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN THE LOWLANDS BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
0538 AM AVIATION UPDATED BELOW...
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH ON MONDAY, TRANSITIONING RAIN TO
SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. A DUSTING POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWLANDS BY
MONDAY EVENING.
3. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, POSING A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO ANY VERY EARLY
SEASON VEGETATION THAT HAS EMERGED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST OF THE POTENT COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT) INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE WE DID NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV OVERNIGHT, ITS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AN SPS/WIND ADV WILL BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. REGARDLESS OF
HOW STRONG/SEVERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AS THEY CROSS THE AREA,
MECHANICAL MIXING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY COULD EASILY MIX
STRONG WINDS GUSTS TO THE SFC.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD, MLCAPE IS NEGLIGIBLE, BUT A
STRONG LLJ OF 55-70 KTS WILL ENHANCE ANY WIND ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THERE
REMAINS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE LINE OF CONVECTION/QLSC,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WILL BE ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH AND
THEN AGAIN WITH THE REINVIGORATING QLCS IN THE EXTREME EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY MORNING.
CURRENT TIMING FOR THE FRONT IS ROUGHLY 3-5AM ACROSS NE KY AND
SE OH, 5-8AM FOR SW VA AND THE REST OF WV. THERE COULD BE AN
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION OR REINVIGORATING OF
THE QLCS/LINE OF CONVECTION LATE MORNING ACROSS THE MTNS AS IT
MOVES EAST FROM WV INTO WESTERN VA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, TEMPS WILL PLUMMET FROM
THE LOWER 60S/50S EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO 30S/40S BY LATER
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP WITH LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN
THE MTNS, WITH AND INCH OR SO IN THE FOOTHILLS. THE LOWLANDS ARE
A LITTLE TRICKER. THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW AN
ADDITIONAL PRECIP SHIELD RIDE NORTH POST FRONTAL BNDRY, THUS
EXTENDING MORE OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. IF THIS SOLUTION WERE TO OCCUR,
THERE COULD BE A QUICKER CHANGEOVER EAST OF I-77 WITH A MORE
RAPID TEMP DROP DUE TO DYNAMICAL COOLING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
A SLUSHY COATING UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE HIGHER
RIDGES COULD SEE CLOSER TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW. CURRENT PROBS OF
UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FOR THE LOWLANDS, GENERALLY EAST OF I-77,
IS AROUND 30 PERCENT. WHILE SNOW HAS BEEN TRENDING UP FOR THE
LOWLANDS, ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THIS WILL BE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH A MUCH HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND WARM GROUND SURFACES,
THUS LIMITING IMPACTS.
IT IS POSSIBLE AN EVENTUAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST THE
MTNS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE FOOTHILLS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS POINT. WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVIER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS,
COULD CREATE AT LEAST A FEW ROADWAY IMPACTS AS THE SUN GOES
DOWN. EVEN IN THE LOWLANDS, UNTREATED ROADS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING COULD SEE PATCHY SLICK CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY MORNING, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS HARD FREEZE
WILL BE DAMAGING TO UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE EARLY-SEASON
VEGETATION THAT HAS EMERGED WITH RECENT WARM AND WET CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LLWS THIS MORNING FOR SOME TAF LOCALES, BEFORE SFC WINDS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY SE WINDS BETWEEN
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 27-33KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. STRONGER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BNDRY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 KTS IN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE FROM RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BNDRY, HEAVIER SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRM
AVIATION...JRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page