635
FXUS61 KRLX 032323
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
623 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING, DRY
SYSTEM BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT
TRAVERSES THE AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INITIALLY RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT YIELDING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MAIN RIVER VALLEYS
LIKE THE KANAWHA AND OHIO CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1220 PM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, LEADING
TO A DRY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE ANY MORNING VALLEY FOG MIXES
OUT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 70S IN THE LOWLANDS, WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MOISTURE-STARVED, THOUGH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS FROM A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM MONDAY...
THURSDAY REMAINS DRY AND SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RIDGES INTO THE AREA. THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ACTIVE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN, WITH
CENTRAL GUIDANCE 12-HOUR PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT,
STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND, SEPARATE SYSTEM ARRIVING ON
SUNDAY, ENSURING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND REMAINING IN THE 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND A
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE-ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 622 PM MONDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO RISE
WITH SUNSET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD UNTIL ABOUT ~09-10Z WHEN
WE START SEEING SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP.
TONIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN FOR FOG AS WINDS ALOFT FROM 925-850MB
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE (15-30KTS) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW THAT WILL BE OBSERVED. DID ALLOW
FOR FOG FORMATION AT CRW, HTS, PKB, AND EKN BUT CONDITIONS
WOULD BE IFR AT THE WORST GIVEN THE INABILITY FOR FOG COLUMN TO
ACHIEVE PROPER DEPTH. IFR CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE
OBSERVED AT HTS OR CRW.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY ~14-15Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OF
MOSTLY A W'RLY INFLUENCE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 12 AND 18KTS POSSIBLE,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EST 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page