390  
FXUS61 KRLX 191826  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
126 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE  
AREA THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
THICK CIRRUS WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A THINNER BATCH OF CIRRUS WILL  
STREAM ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST AT THE SAME TIME. CLOUDS WILL  
THEN BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM  
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THEN HEADS OFF THE  
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BRUSH OUR  
FORECAST AREA, DID INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST  
BY RELYING HEAVILY ON A WRFNMM AND NAMNEST BLEND. THIS GIVES A  
PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE POPS AND UP TO AROUND HALF AN INCH  
OF SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE SW VA ZONES WITH LITTLE  
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAIN ZONES. THE  
OTHER CHANGE MADE TODAY WAS TO ADD A BATCH OF FLURRIES SLIDING  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
THIS IS RELATED TO AN AREA OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SQUEEZING OUT WHAT MEAGER MOISTURE THERE  
IS THIS FAR NW OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.  
 
BLENDED IN ECMWF MOS FOR TEMPS, WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO  
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL WX REGIME IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROF  
AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW  
TAKES SHAPE. DECENT CAA WILL ENSUE...KEEPING FRIDAY CHILLY  
DESPITE SUNSHINE.  
 
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES SATURDAY WITH  
CONTINUED DRY WX FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO  
MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
WE END THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE NICE WX FROM  
SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURE  
DEPARTMENT. THEREAFTER, A WET SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN MILD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LOWERING AND  
THICKENING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING, INCLUDING BKW. COULD ALSO  
SEE RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  
AN AREA OF LIGHT FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY THURSDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY RESTRICTIONS  
AND WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE BEFORE CODING IN TAFS.  
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
MAY VARY THURSDAY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM...30  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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