658
FXUS61 KRLX 091347
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020
SYNOPSIS
REMAINING VERY WARM AND DRY SUNDAY. HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...
MORNING FOG HAS LARGELY BURNED OFF AT THIS HOUR. ANOTHER QUIET
WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. QUIET WITH ABUNDANT VALLEY FOG THAT
WILL DISSOLVE WITH SUNRISE. VERY WARM TODAY.
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...
STILL WAY TOO DRY OFF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALSO STABLE FROM
THE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF IT TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION GOING. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH AXES ALOFT AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED VERY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THAT WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER DAY WHERE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS WILL COME DOWN AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES ON THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA IN SOME EARLY AUGUST HEAT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. 500MB FLOW
CONTINUES TO BE RIDDLED WITH RIPPLES AND VALLEY FOG WILL TRY TO
FORM ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK FLOWS AT THE TOP OF THE NIGHT TIME
INVERSION. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
IN DIP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...
MONDAY STARTS OFF DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS (70S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
FACILITATE SHOWER AND STORM FORMATION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT. AS OF NOW, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER THE CWA WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THAT
AREA AND BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REACHING UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (70S TO 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS).
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...
LIFR FOG IN THE VALLEYS/TERMINALS LIFTS AFTER 13Z. VFR IN SCT
CUMULUS FIELD, FLAT, AT 4-6KFT. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS LESS
THAN 10KTS, EXCEPT FOR BKW NORTHWESTERLY 6-10KTS. VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EXTENT AND DEVELOPMENT/DISSIPATION
TIME COULD VARY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26/JLB
NEAR TERM...26/JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...26
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