477
FXUS61 KRLX 020938
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
538 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REDUCED FORECAST HIGHS AND AFTERNOON MIXED DEW POINTS TO REFLECT
PERSISTENT HIGH BIAS IN CENTRAL GUIDANCE. UPDATED 12Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
OVER 100 FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
2. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
LOCALLY HAVE RAIN AND DOWNBURSTS PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE DOMINANT H500 RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ROUGHLY OVERHEAD TODAY,
PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MAINTAINING THE ONGOING HEAT
WAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH
80S IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE TREATMENT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
UNDER THIS REGIME. RAW CENTRAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
SEVERE HIGH BIAS, PULLING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S
ALONGSIDE NEAR-RECORD AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE KNOWN
BIAS CORRECTION ISSUES WITH THE CENTRAL GUIDANCE DURING THESE
PATTERNS, THE FORECAST HEAVILY DISCOUNTS IT AND TRENDS TOWARD A
MORE CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THIS YIELDS PEAK AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. THIS STILL YIELDS DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
PUSHING 100 TO 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH RAW
CRITERIA AT THE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN A STRUGGLE TO MEET, THE LONG
DURATION OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO JUSTIFY
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING.
CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS, THOUGH AN EXTENSION
INTO SATURDAY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF FORECAST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COMES IN A BIT MORE SPARSE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO EXTEND HIGHLIGHTS INTO
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND GUIDANCE GENERALLY RUNNING TOO HOT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED H500 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY
AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT HAS CAPPED THE REGION. ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION MAY INITIATE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
FAVORED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAN
AID ASCENT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY, THIS WOULD COVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED ACTIVITY WHERE DOWNBURST WINDS
COULD YIELD SOME LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE, AS WELL AS ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT COULD APPROACH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS WITH EITHER SCENARIO IS
LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITHIN A TROPICALLY INFLUENCED, WEAK-FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THE LOSS
OF THE RIDGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES, OR THEIR REMNANTS, TO DRIFT INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS AS
SUBSIDENCE WEAKENS. FURTHERMORE, WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES POOLING IN THE COLUMN AND WEAK STEERING FLOW, INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES FROM SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INTRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT SIMILAR RISK LEVELS FOR THROUGH SUNDAY AMID CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH AN APPROACHING SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE MUTED WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES THROUGH 12-13Z THIS MORNING.
MORNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY LIFT INTO A 1500-2500 FT
SCT-BKN DECK BEFORE RISING TO 3500-4500 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE UNDER 5
KT.
MORE VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 07Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT
LIFTING FOG DECK MAY VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING. FOG
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 07/02/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L H M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M L M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FEW DAILY HIGH RECORDS COULD FALL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, BUT
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE PERSISTENT HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
THU, 7/2 | FRI, 7/3 | SAT, 7/4 | SUN, 7/5 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 95 / 105 (1931) | 96 / 105 (1931) | 96 / 108 (1931) | 94 / 100 (1934) |
HTS | 96 / 101 (1931) | 96 / 97 (2012) | 95 / 101 (1911) | 94 / 100 (1911) |
CKB | 92 / 99 (1931) | 93 / 100 (1966) | 93 / 95 (2018) | 90 / 95 (2020) |
PKB | 93 / 98 (1931) | 94 / 99 (2012) | 93 / 96 (1949) | 91 / 97 (1949) |
BKW | 91 / 94 (1931) | 90 / 93 (1931) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 94 (1934) |
EKN | 93 / 93 (1966) | 91 / 92 (1911) | 92 / 92 (1911) | 91 / 93 (1911) |
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RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ032>034-039-040-
515-517-519-521-525.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP
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