081
FXUS61 KRLX 260539
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
2.) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT, PROVIDING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ENERGY CAN BUILD UP, OR WILL CLOUDS KEEP
TOO MUCH ENERGY FROM BUILDING. WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED,
IF ENERGY CAN BUILD UP, THEN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY, FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. FIRST OF ALL, IF THE FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION IT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS. SECONDLY, MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY BUILDING SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY,
CONTINUING FOR FRIDAY, WITH A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION.
A MOISTURE STARVED REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH THE
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ON SUNDAY AND MOST LIKELY INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THESE FRONTS, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER, WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S,
WITH SOME COOLER LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECTING DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. A WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD TODAY,
PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG COULD VARY.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/26/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M L M L M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L M L M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M H M L H L M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L L L L H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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