658  
FXUS61 KRLX 091347  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
REMAINING VERY WARM AND DRY SUNDAY. HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY IN  
THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...  
 
MORNING FOG HAS LARGELY BURNED OFF AT THIS HOUR. ANOTHER QUIET  
WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO  
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  
 
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...  
 
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING. QUIET WITH ABUNDANT VALLEY FOG THAT  
WILL DISSOLVE WITH SUNRISE. VERY WARM TODAY.  
 
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...  
 
STILL WAY TOO DRY OFF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALSO STABLE FROM  
THE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF IT TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
CONVECTION GOING. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH FLAT CUMULUS  
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH AXES ALOFT AND THE  
AFOREMENTIONED VERY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THAT WILL RESULT  
IN ANOTHER DAY WHERE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS WILL COME DOWN AT THE  
SURFACE. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP ANOTHER COUPLE  
DEGREES ON THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA IN SOME EARLY AUGUST HEAT.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. 500MB FLOW  
CONTINUES TO BE RIDDLED WITH RIPPLES AND VALLEY FOG WILL TRY TO  
FORM ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK FLOWS AT THE TOP OF THE NIGHT TIME  
INVERSION. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES  
IN DIP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...  
 
MONDAY STARTS OFF DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE AREA. MOISTURE  
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS SEVERAL  
SHORTWAVES MOVE TOWARD THE CWA AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING THE  
AFTERNOONS WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S ACROSS  
THE LOWLANDS (70S TO 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND DEWPOINTS IN THE  
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY  
FACILITATE SHOWER AND STORM FORMATION EACH AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...  
 
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD, THERE IS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT. AS OF NOW, BOTH THE GFS AND  
ECMWF INDICATE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA  
FROM THE WEST BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED  
TO STALL OVER THE CWA WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THAT  
AREA AND BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY  
REACHING UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (70S TO 80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...  
 
LIFR FOG IN THE VALLEYS/TERMINALS LIFTS AFTER 13Z. VFR IN SCT  
CUMULUS FIELD, FLAT, AT 4-6KFT. VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS LESS  
THAN 10KTS, EXCEPT FOR BKW NORTHWESTERLY 6-10KTS. VALLEY FOG  
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z MONDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EXTENT AND DEVELOPMENT/DISSIPATION  
TIME COULD VARY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23  
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19  
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND  
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH ENOUGH CLEARING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...26/JLB  
NEAR TERM...26/JP  
SHORT TERM...JLB  
LONG TERM...JLB  
AVIATION...26  
 
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