253
FXUS61 KRLX 080700
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOLER TODAY THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, HOWEVER NEAR RECORD
WARMTH IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2. A POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WHICH COULD BRING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
3. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE POTENT SYSTEM A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL COULD
BECOME IMPACTED DUE TO POSSIBLE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN TODAY, HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNNY SKIES WILL THEN
PREVAIL AS ZONAL FLOW KICKS IN AND PROMOTES FAIR WEATHER. NEAR
RECORD WARMTH IS THEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE
OR HIGHER MARK ONCE AGAIN.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING DOWN TEMPERATURES TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL GOING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POTENT SYSTEM WITH A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY MID WEEK, NOTABLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL BE A GREAT TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO FLOURISH DUE TO
INSTABILITY BEING AT ITS GREATEST VALUES. GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE DAMAGING
WIND WITH POSSIBLY TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT
ALLOWING CELLS TO GROW TO SEVERE DUE TO POTENTIAL MESOCYCLONE
FORMATIONS FROM SUFFICIENT SHEAR.
ANOTHER IMPACT THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING IS A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT TO AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN SATURATED AND
HAVE HAD FLOODING ISSUES LATELY. WE DO HAVE A BREAK OF RAIN
INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER ANY STRONG TO SEVERE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND POSSIBLY ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
A SHARPLY COLDER AIR MASS WHICH WILL PROMOTE A POSSIBLE FLASH
FREEZE BY THURSDAY MORNING AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS WILL CHANGEOVER ANY RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, BUT
IN THE MOUNTAINS, UPSLOPE SNOW WILL LIKELY ADD SOME
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER 2500FT.
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL MAY OCCUR AS SATURATED SURFACES FREEZE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH COULD BECOME SLICK WITHOUT
TREATMENT EVEN UNDER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TAKES PLACE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DETER FOG FORMATION
BUT SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND EKN IS POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN BY MID AFTERNOON CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND PROMOTING VFR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EST 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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