728  
FNUS73 KUNR 221554  
FWSUNR  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR THRUSH 2...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
854 AM MST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON FEBRUARY 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE  
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROP TO  
25 TO 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS  
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.  
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 30 MPH, HIGHEST ON RIDGE TOPS.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 TO 6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 35 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.  
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 29 MPH, HIGHEST ON RIDGE TOPS.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 TO 1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.  
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 32 MPH, HIGHEST ON RIDGE TOPS.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 TO 4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 55 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 40  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.  
 

 
FORECASTER...JC  
REQUESTED BY...RYAN FLYNN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2404452.0/UNR  
.DELDT 02/22/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL RYAN.FLYNN@USDA.GOV  
 
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