219
FNUS73 KUNR 072017
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR SCHENK RX UNIT 4...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
217 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1530 MDT ON OCTOBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR, GETTING UP TO
AROUND 55%. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT,
WITH UPPER SLOPES AND EXPOSED AREAS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
LOWER SLOPES AND DRAINAGES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SEE TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REACH AROUND 75F WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES REACHING 22-25%. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY. LIGHT WESTERLY (20 FT) WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY OF 55 TO 60%.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, AND WILL
HAVE NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S COUPLED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SD AND THE FOOTHILLS FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS A BIT
MORE BORDERLINE, BUT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL.
PATTERN CHANGES STARTING SUNDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THERE IS A CHANCE WE SEE
WETTING RAINS IN THIS PERIOD, BUT WE'RE FAR ENOUGH OUT THERE'S
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AROUND
90%, WITH A MIN RH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 50-55% RANGE. MODEL WINDS
FOR TUESDAY DURING THE DAY SHOW SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
MODELS THEN SHOW A POTENTIALLY LARGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SOMETIME IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 15
MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 TO 6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........23 31 36
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0
TEMP............75 75 73
RH..............21 22 23
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.15 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.0 4.2 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 9
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 16
MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
15 TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........40 38 42 41 36 32 30 34 34 34 39 39
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............69 65 63 61 60 58 56 55 55 54 53 53
RH..............26 29 30 31 32 36 40 41 43 47 50 50
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.9 12 14 16 16 15 15 14 15 14 13 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 13 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 10 9
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE WEST LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 16 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........33 35 15 10 4 3 3 6 10 16 12 10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 51 53 57 63 66 67 71 73 73 74 72
RH..............52 54 52 47 38 34 34 30 27 26 25 26
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NW W W W W W NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 2 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 7 7 8 9 12 13 15 16 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.5 3.8 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NW NW NW W W W W NW W SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 12 9
FORECASTER...AD
REQUESTED BY...JOSH BEHLINGS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623128.5/UNR
.DELDT 10/07/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL HAYDEN.HOELSCHER@USDA.GOV,JOSHUA.BEHLINGS@USDA.GOV,JASON.RODRIGUEZ2@USDA.GOV
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