840
FNUS73 KUNR 191448
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR WARREN PEAK 20...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
748 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0923 MST ON JANUARY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH. WE CAN EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE EVENING. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW INTO THE FIRE AREA OF
INTEREST. LOOKING LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AROUND
(50-60%) WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING ALL SNOW. EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND THE FIRE ZONE TO BE AROUND 1-2". WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE WEST, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 24.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 TO 3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO 25 TO 30
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
TIME (MST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........66 68 69 69 57 61 63 75 81
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............12 15 18 21 23 24 23 22 22
RH..............86 81 73 65 59 60 62 65 65
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 16 16 16 16 15 13 10
20 FT WIND GUST.31 33 35 32 32 32 30 28 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.4 1.7 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.30 35 38 41 44 43 38 30 24
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20.
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 TO 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........76 67 70 53 57 63 62 58 63 56 57 59
WEATHER COV..... CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............21 21 21 21 21 21 20 21 21 22 22 23
RH..............68 68 65 65 68 65 71 65 62 57 54 54
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW W W W W W SW SW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.21 20 18 17 16 15 16 16 17 18 20 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW W W W W SW SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 20 21
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MORNING, THEN SNOW LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 36 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................45 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 TO 4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 40 TO
50 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........56 70 73 75 82 88 88 87 87 88 90 91
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............24 24 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 22 20 19
RH..............54 54 55 55 57 63 65 71 74 77 81 80
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 13 14 15 15 16 17 20 20 20 18 17
20 FT WIND GUST.22 23 24 29 31 33 35 36 36 33 32 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 23 24 29 35 39 43 45 46 45 43 40
FORECASTER...AW
REQUESTED BY...BRANDON FISCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600147.2/UNR
.DELDT 01/19/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRANDON.FISCHER@USDA.GOV
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