402  
FNUS75 KBYZ 221024  
FWSBYZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHENANGO ADMIN PILE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
324 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON DECEMBER 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN SITE TODAY WITH  
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED, MAINLY THROUGH THE  
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LIGHT EARLY TODAY, BUT  
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR  
(>10% CHANCE). CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION IS NEARLY 35% TODAY  
BEFORE DECREASING TO ABOUT 15% TONIGHT. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT BY  
MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. BT  
   
TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN/SNOW LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN  
AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................34 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57-64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......VARIABLE WIND UNDER 10 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-8 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
RIDGETOP........... WEST AROUND 25-35 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 25  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO  
5400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 26 TO 31  
MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO  
15 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........75 73 86 74 70 64 65 76 83  
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RS RN RN RN RN RS RS RS RS  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............36 39 41 44 46 46 45 43 39  
RH..............82 75 70 67 60 61 59 66 72  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 16 17 17 17 14 14 13 10  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN  
THE EVENING. CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
CWR.................28 PERCENT DECREASING TO 15 PERCENT EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-37.  
MAX HUMIDITY........79-88 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND UNDER 10 MPH. LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 25 TO 32 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO  
1600 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........82 75 78 68 71 69 63 61 64 60 77 84  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RS RS RS RS RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............38 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 37 38 38  
RH..............76 74 72 74 73 72 74 72 72 73 75 77  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 13 13 13 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 13  
   
TUESDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................12 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-53.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44-50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 6-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST AROUND 35 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO  
4400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 26  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........87 62 77 62  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............38 40 50 51  
RH..............77 75 53 49  
20 FT WIND......S 5G12 S 6G14 S 8G16 S 9G20  
 
 
FORECASTER...TESAR  
REQUESTED BY...TYLER KUHN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2527959.0/BYZ  
.DELDT 12/22/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL LIAM.T.DILLAWAY@USDA.GOV,TYLER.KUHN@USDA.GOV  
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