450
FNUS75 KCYS 170405
FWSCYS
SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH POLE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1005 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (307) 772-2227
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY START OFF ON THE WETTER SIDE AS MODELS SHOW A
LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
6 AM AND 10 AM. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LIGHTNING, BUT COULD ALSO
HAVE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CANNOT
RULE OUT LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER THE NEXT BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT. A HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND
65 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH A MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 35 PERCENT.
WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, SO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................29 PERCENT DECREASING TO 6 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 32
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 29 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (12000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (72800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........93 80 79 78 81 66 64 48 51 48 61 85
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............53 52 51 54 56 58 60 62 62 63 62 60
RH..............83 82 83 66 59 51 44 42 40 37 38 42
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW N N N N NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 9 14 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 14
20 FT WIND GUST.15 21 26 32 35 35 33 32 30 29 28 29
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW W NW NW NW NW N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 15 20 21 21 22 21 21 20 20 18 18
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/100012 19 28 37 37 45 55 70 73 66 61 57
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................6 PERCENT INCREASING TO 18 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 29 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 17 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (55600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (13100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........86 84 79 81 79 73 65 62 87 93 96 93
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............59 57 55 53 51 49 48 46 45 44 43 42
RH..............42 43 49 50 54 61 60 63 70 73 76 79
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE N NE N NE NE NE N
20 FT WIND SPD..14 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 15
20 FT WIND GUST.28 26 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 28 29
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 2.9 2.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE N N NE NE NE NE N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 18 18 17 17 18 20 21 20 20 22 20
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/100056 47 34 13 15 16 17 19 20 24 29 24
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................67 PERCENT INCREASING TO 87 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 14 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
35 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (45700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........96 98 97 93 93 93 92 96 96 94 96 96
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RS RS RS
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90 90
TEMP............39 37 37 36 36 35 35 36 36 37 36 35
RH..............89 95 98 97 96 96 91 84 87 82 85 93
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 17 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 14
20 FT WIND GUST.29 31 33 35 35 35 33 33 32 31 31 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 21 22 23 22 23 22 22 22 22 21 21
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/100027 29 34 40 41 46 42 42 37 38 32 34
FORECASTER...FULLER
REQUESTED BY...DUELL PUTTERGILL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613852.0/CYS
.DELDT 05/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DUELL.PUTTERGILL@USDA.GOV,JASON.R.HAUG@USDA.GOV,CALEB.MEYER@USDA.GOV
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