473
FNUS75 KCYS 151852
FWSCYS
SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH POLE FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1252 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (307) 772-2227
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
DISCUSSION
WESTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO REMAIN ALOFT THROUGH THIS EVENING SO SMOKE PLUMES WILL DRIFT WESTERLY. LATEST
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS PRIMARILY SWITCHED FROM A WESTERLY WIND TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. BETWEEN DOUGLAS,WY TO CHADRON, NE THE WINDS LOOK LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WINDS ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY GUSTY UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES FOR THE ASH POLE
FIRE AREA AND THEN EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5), FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SATURDAY'S
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE OVERALL WEAKER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM SECTOR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CAPPING UNTIL AFTER 12PM OR SO. SUNDAY, IS KIND OF THE SAME SCENARIO WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT THE WINDS WILL BE TURNING WESTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MISSING.
MAX HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (53500 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6PM
SKY (%).........32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0
TEMP............76
RH..............13
20 FT WIND DIR..N
20 FT WIND SPD..12
20 FT WIND GUST.21
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.N
TRANSP WIND SPD.12
HAINES INDEX....M
SDSPL KT-FT/100054
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................1 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 12 TO
15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (53500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (5000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........32 32 32 66 66 66 51 51 51 26 26 26
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............76 73 69 65 63 61 59 56 54 52 51 50
RH..............13 15 17 20 24 28 32 36 39 41 43 45
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..12 10 9 9 9 10 12 10 10 9 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.21 20 17 17 17 20 21 20 18 17 15 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.3 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE E E E NE E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 12 13 14 15 14 15 14 13 12 12
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/100054 15 5 6 6 8 7 8 7 6 5 5
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 12 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7
TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 17
TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (95700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (107600
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (154100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........32 32 32 21 21 21 37 37 37 45 45 45
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............48 53 57 61 65 69 73 75 77 79 77 74
RH..............47 41 36 31 28 25 23 22 20 20 22 26
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE SE S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 8 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 12 15
20 FT WIND GUST.13 15 17 20 18 15 13 12 13 15 21 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.7 5.1 6.0 6.7 8.2 8.6 7.1 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.E SE SE SE S S S S S S S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 20 20 20 20 18 18 17 21 23 25
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/10005 7 27 48 63 87 96 108 123 154 142 113
FORECASTER...MCLAUGHLIN
REQUESTED BY...DUELL PUTTERGILL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613687.1/CYS
.DELDT 05/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DUELL.PUTTERGILL@USDA.GOV,DEWEY.ARNOLD@STATE.SD.US
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