062
FNUS75 KCYS 161841
FWSCYS
SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH POLE FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1241 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (307) 772-2227
DISCUSSION
A SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTED TOTAL QPF
BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS AROUND 0.1-0.25 INCH, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 INCH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE STRONG INCLUDING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS, BUT THE STRONGEST TO MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL LIE
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SITE. PREVAILING WINDS NOT NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY, SHIFTING FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN TO NORTHERLY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE STRONGER ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................28 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 14 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (83800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (7300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........57 70 63 74 62 57 61 63 61 83 53 44
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............76 73 68 64 62 60 58 57 56 56 54 54
RH..............24 29 40 52 58 64 69 72 80 77 80 80
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE S S S S S S SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..16 17 17 16 15 12 10 8 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.30 32 32 30 26 22 17 15 14 14 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 22 22 18 15 14 10 10 10 10 10
SDSPL KT-FT/100084 30 13 13 10 9 13 8 8 8 8 7
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................18 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AROUND 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 20
TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 21
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (78200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........66 71 38 54 42 39 43 44 45 68 77 72
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............52 51 53 56 59 59 61 62 63 64 63 61
RH..............83 83 74 62 51 49 42 39 38 35 38 42
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW NW NW N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 13 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 14
20 FT WIND GUST.14 18 23 26 29 29 29 29 28 26 26 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.3 3.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W NW NW N NW N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 16 20 21 21 21 20 21 20 21 21
SDSPL KT-FT/100010 14 24 39 48 53 63 69 78 78 78 68
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................14 PERCENT INCREASING TO 41 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (30700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........71 97 96 93 77 71 70 70 88 93 95 94
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............60 58 55 53 51 49 48 46 45 44 42 41
RH..............42 44 49 52 56 61 63 65 73 76 79 82
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15
20 FT WIND GUST.25 24 23 22 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 2.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.8 2.4 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE N N NE NE NE N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 20 18 20 22 23 22 23 22 21 20 20
SDSPL KT-FT/100065 48 31 32 31 40 33 38 46 33 41 41
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................71 PERCENT INCREASING TO 91 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MIN HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 15 TO 17 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 21 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40000 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........97 100 96 91 90 90 89 89 90 90 90 89
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RS RS RS RS RS RS
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............70 70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90 90
TEMP............39 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 34 33
RH..............85 96 100 96 92 92 89 89 89 92 96 96
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..16 16 16 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.29 30 30 31 31 31 30 29 29 28 28 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21
SDSPL KT-FT/100042 44 45 48 47 46 45 46 46 46 42 40
FORECASTER...GOATLEY
REQUESTED BY...DUELL PUTTERGILL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613687.2/CYS
.DELDT 05/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DEWEY.ARNOLD@STATE.SD.US,DUELL.PUTTERGILL@USDA.GOV
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