825
FNUS75 KCYS 160359
FWSCYS
SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH POLE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
959 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (307) 772-2227
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT, EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE
AREA OF THE FIRE. BY SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND RAMP UP WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE BIG CONCERN
FOR SATURDAY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED
MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR
THE SEVERE THREAT, SO THE ACTIVITY MAY START A LITTLE LATER UNTIL
THE CAP HAS ERODED. SUNDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT WINDS WILL BE TURNING WESTERLY BY THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON WHEN
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
6 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (84300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (117600
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (151200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........45 62 26 15 25 16 12 21 34 23 42 58
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............50 52 56 62 68 72 75 78 80 81 80 79
RH..............47 46 41 34 27 24 20 18 16 15 18 20
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 12
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 14 16 16 16 15 16 18 20 23 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.5 4.6 6.5 8.4 9.2 9.6 8.9 7.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E SE SE S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 17 18 16 15 15 16 16 17 20 21
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/10005 6 23 39 49 60 84 118 129 145 151 138
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 29
MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 7 TO 8 MPH AFTER
3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 14 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (6900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........68 84 57 63 81 76 63 68 74 71 58 44
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY DEF LKY CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............50 50 50 50 50 50 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............76 73 68 64 61 59 58 56 56 56 54 54
RH..............24 29 40 52 60 67 69 74 77 74 77 77
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..13 15 15 15 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.28 26 28 29 25 23 20 16 14 13 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 1.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE SE SE S S S S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 18 18 21 20 18 14 15 13 14 14 12
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/100061 28 14 15 17 13 13 10 8 12 12 7
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................7 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 16
TO 21 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST 22 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (75800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO GOOD (88100 KNOT-FT)
EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(119400 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........53 54 63 60 67 48 40 46 44 51 74 81
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 52 55 57 61 62 63 65 65 66 65 64
RH..............73 74 64 54 44 39 37 33 31 30 32 34
20 FT WIND DIR..SW W NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 10 13 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.16 21 26 32 33 33 32 31 30 29 29 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.0 2.1 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.5 6.0 7.0 5.4 4.5 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W NW NW NW NW NW N N N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 16 20 21 20 20 21 20 20 23 22
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 11 30 43 58 62 76 107 119 92 91 88
FORECASTER...ZAWISLAK
REQUESTED BY...DUELL PUTTERGILL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613794.0/CYS
.DELDT 05/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CALEB.MEYER@USDA.GOV,JASON.R.HAUG@USDA.GOV,DUELL.PUTTERGILL@USDA.GOV
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