670
FXUS63 KUNR 080422
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1022 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGES EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 927 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH SATURDAY AS INFLUENCE OF
UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR. COLD FRONT DROPS SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SOME RAIN, POSSIBLY SOME SNOW UP HIGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY NEXT WEEK AS
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WIGGLES IN/NEAR THE
AREA. NBM GUIDANCE HAS 30-40F MAXT 10-90TH PERCENTILE SPREADS FOR
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION, AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE WEST
COAST, AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
REGION. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ND/SD
BORDER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH CURRENT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH TODAY WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND IT, HOWEVER WINDS STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN DRY AND WARMER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S
AND EVEN LOW 90S FOR SOME AREAS. GOOD MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN
STRONGER WINDS, WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS
AREAS FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE DRY AIR COUPLED WITH STRONGER WINDS
WILL RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE NORTHEAST WY PLAINS, SOUTHWESTERN SD, AND THE
FOOTHILLS.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW AND THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
SWING IN THE OTHER DIRECTION, WITH HIGHS DROPPING 25 TO 30 DEGREES
FOR SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL, AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN,
SOME AREAS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST SNOW AS WELL, DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF THE PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LOW WITH THIS WAVE
THOUGH, AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES DONT TYPICALLY DIP BELOW FREEZING,
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.
MODELS HINT AT BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A DRY AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY,
BUT THEN LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW SWINGING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN SD INTO THE REGION. WE'RE STILL A WAYS OUT FROM
THIS, SO MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AS TO HOW THIS LOW/TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION, BUT WILL BE MONITORING AS WE MOVE INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING THURSDAY PER MINRH 15-20%, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA PER
MINRH 10-20% AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN WY PLAINS, FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD, AND
THE FOOTHILLS. SATURDAY WILL BRING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON RH'S DROP TO 15-20% AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ322>327.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ314>317.
UPDATE...HELGESON
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...SE
FIRE WEATHER...DYE
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