604
FXUS63 KUNR 112309
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
509 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY.
- HIGH WINDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 70
TO 75 MPH OVER NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SD.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE BLACK
HILLS WHERE 6+" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERN SD AND
NORTHEASTERN WY COULD SEE 1 TO 4" OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
US WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES OVER THE
CWA ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION.
THURSDAY WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE AS WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW COMMENCES AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS ACROSS
WESTERN SD COULD JUMP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT DOWNSLOPING. WITH RHS DROPPING INTO THE 20-30% RANGE, THE
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, WE COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. STRONG 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO
7 MB AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH WINDS OF
70+ KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF
UP TO 70-80+ MPH ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS AND GUSTS OF UP TO
60-70 MPH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY. WHILE NOT EXPECTING THIS EVENT
TO BE AS HISTORIC AS THE DECEMBER WIND STORM, DO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH END WIND EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TREE
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AND ADDED IN THE BLACK HILLS WHERE
GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER RIDGE TOP GUSTS
LIKELY.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW (120-140KT JET
AT H30) WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP OVER THE CWA AND SUPPORTING
A LONGER DURATION LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT. SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
ALSO CUT ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE IS AND THUS HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION PLACES WILL GET. BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE BLACK HILLS WHERE NBM
PROBS OF >6" OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY HAVE INCREASED TO ~50-70%. ON
THE PLAINS, NORTHWESTERN SD WILL REMAIN ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATIONS (NBM
PROBS FOR >4" SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY ARE ~30-50%).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09-11Z THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 19-21Z. GUSTS TO 40-50 KNOTS LIKELY AT BOTH KGCC
AND KRAP; STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SD
PLAINS (INCLUDING KRAP) WITH GUSTS TO 50-60+ KNOTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
WARM, DRY, AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 70 ON THE PLAINS WITH AFTERNOON
RHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20-30% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE WY PLAINS
AND FROM THE MEADE COUNTY PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD. WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF
UP TO TO 40-50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS BY LATE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-45
MPH, GUSTING TO 60 TO 70 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
80 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-
047-049-072>078.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ054>060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SE
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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