195
FXUS63 KUNR 150401
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1001 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERY, COOLER WEATHER WITH PERHAPS ACTIVE/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
45MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SD PLAINS, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HOIST WIND HEADLINES. STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT
LINE UP WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORGO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN PASSES
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING SHOWERY AND COOLER WEATHER. LOW LEVEL
JET/THETA-E ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (SPC DAY 4) AS MAIN COLD
FRONT SLICES THROUGH THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR. TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL MODULATE SOUTH-CENTRAL SD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY TO THE AREA BUT NOT UNTIL LATER
THIS WEEKEND. SO FOR NOW, WE'LL HOLD ON TO THE CRITICAL TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS
SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
TO FINISH THIS WEEK, ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL GIVE VERY
LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER. SO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO 40S. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. AND
WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE IN THE AREA, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LOW, AT AROUND 10 TO 20%. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS WILL REACH NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE RED FLAG WARNING BECAUSE THE
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO HAPPEN WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE NEAR 20%. AND WHERE THE RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT NEAR 10 TO 15%,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THESE FORECAST
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND IF NEEDED, WARNING
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME VERY DIFFERENT WEATHER TO NE WY
AND W SD. FOR STARTERS, SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
CENTRAL SD AS A POTENTIAL AREA OF WHERE SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. AS THE COOLER AIR SLIDES SOUTH, MOST OF THE
AREA HAS A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, POPS DIMINISH AND TEMPS WARM BACK TO
THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO MOST
OF WESTERN SD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM TODAY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING BUT
RH VALUES WILL SEE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THAT BEING SAID, AS
OF NOW, IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLDS, SO
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NOW.
COOLER WITH SHOWER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A BREAK IN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...HELGESON
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...GS
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...GS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page