151
FXUS63 KUNR 202243
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
343 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING
-CLIPPER WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY WIND AND LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
WATER VAPOR SHOWS LONG WAVE TROF COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH
UPPER RIDGE FOLDING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH
IS NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS.
ARCTIC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LEE TROF MOVING
EASTWARD. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED EARLY TONIGHT, WITH
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT OVER AT LEAST OUR WESTERN HALF OF ZONES. BY
MORNING, WIND CHILLS SHOULD MOSTLY BE ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
ON TUESDAY, WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT ANY
REMAINING ARCTIC AIR, WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE
30S.
STRONG CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH A SECONDARY CLIPPER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED WITH THESE CLIPPERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
WY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES IN LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR MORE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. MODEL SOLUTIONS DISPERSE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROF SPLITS, SO FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/PRECIP THAT FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW
MORNING. GUSTS OF UP TO 30 TO 35 KT EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SD, GUSTS OF 20 TO 25KT EXPECTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
WY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ054>060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JOHNSON
AVIATION...WONG
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