729  
FXUS63 KUNR 111028  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
428 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022  
 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL  
WY, WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND  
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN SD. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS  
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NE. UPPER LEVEL  
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO AND SOUTHERN WY,  
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS MT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL  
CANADA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE HIGH FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SKIES  
ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN  
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF  
THE FRONT, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF IT.  
 
THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF  
MORE DAYS AS RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY  
WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH  
UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT  
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD, MOSTLY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE WARM  
FRONT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE  
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES.  
THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS SLOWLY  
NORTHEASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN TONIGHT, ALLOWING  
SOME WEAK ENERGY TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO MAINLY NORTHWEST  
SD, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, AT  
LEAST OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS  
RIDGE FURTHER WEAKENS AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO  
THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORM LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER AT LEAST WESTERN  
AREAS. NEITHER DAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS FAR AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL  
GOES, WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE.  
 
A MODEST COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A MORE  
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING, AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND  
ALLOWS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. TEMPS WILL DROP CLOSER TO AVERAGE LEVELS BY SUNDAY, WITH NEAR  
OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER  
STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHEAR  
STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE WEAK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022  
 
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCATED IFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS  
THIS MORNING ON THE PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS  
BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER  
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022  
 
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES  
DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO  
15 MPH RANGE. SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT  
THEY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE BLACK  
HILLS WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR  
SDZ012-013-031-032-043-073.  
 
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...26  
AVIATION...JOHNSON  
FIRE WEATHER...26  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SD Page
The Nexlab WY Page Main Text Page