197  
FXUS63 KUNR 240449  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
1049 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018  
 
AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS  
STRETCHES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
ARE MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  
THE SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ND. WINDS ARE  
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS, AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING  
INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND  
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT  
WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CWA. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL  
SD, ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND  
FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CWA WILL STAY DRY, WITH  
WIDESPREAD 60S FOR HIGHS.  
 
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS AND SPOTTY  
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, BUT  
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS  
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY  
MORNING. THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING 50 KT 850 MB WINDS, BUT THE ECMWF  
IS WEAKER. BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MILD AND DRY  
WEATHER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018  
 
SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH  
COULD BRIEFLY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR  
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...POJORLIE  
AVIATION...SHERBURN  
 
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