091
FXUS63 KUNR 281059
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
459 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, MILD, AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN WY INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT EVIDENT IN EXPANDING AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER THE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. MOIST,
UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. WARMER AND GENERALLY DRIER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW AND WESTERN CANADA WILL
SUPPORT GENERAL SW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEK WITH WEAK
IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE FLOW. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEATHER AS
THESE SYSTEMS FIGHT VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE AS EACH WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION. DRY
AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION TODAY, SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FOG. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WEAK
IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TONIGHT AND MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO NW SD. MOSTLY VIRGA
EXPECTED, BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE,
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S, WITH
HIGH TEMP POTENTIALS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE THERMAL RIDGES
AHEAD EACH SYSTEM. THIS COULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER OR COOLER
NUMBERS THAN WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS. UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
OUT THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED LOOKING MORE
LIKELY COUPLED BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING, THE BLACK HILLS, AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z/9AM MDT THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY WEST
OF THE BLACK HILLS, SO SOME OF WHAT YOU MAY SEE ON RADAR WILL
LIKELY PRESENT AS VIRGA (LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FALLING OUT OF SOMEWHAT
HIGH CLOUD BASES ALOFT) AND NOT REACH THE GROUND. CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR. MEANWHILE, BETTER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE PLAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF KRAP, WITH
TRANSIENT LIFR CIGS/VSBYS RESULTING IN A FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE, WE
RETURN TO A MILD, DRY, AND OCCASIONALLY (MODESTLY) BREEZY WEEK.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 14-17Z/8-11AM MDT
TODAY WITH NO FURTHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THOUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...SE
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...KSMITH
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