117
FXUS63 KUNR 140436
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1036 PM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD,
SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH UNSETTLED AND BREEZY CONDS AT
TIMES. DOUBLE BARREL UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS IS
SUPPORTING COOL, BREEZY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY. EASTERN CLOSED LOW WILL PULL AWAY WED, WITH THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH LESS WIND WED, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WED AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
PHASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR AN OVERALL SLOW
PROGRESSION OF LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. ASSOCIATED MAIN SFC
LOW REFLECTION AND STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FA,
AS WELL AS THE BEST MOISTURE. HENCE, THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA, WITH ONLY THE FAR SW HALF TO THIRD
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS. DRY AIR WILL ALSO ENTRAIN
INTO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NE HALF WITH NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE AS
THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING
SNOW ACCUMS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN CAMPBELL,
WESTON, AND FALL RIVER COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE 3-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON
GRASSY SFCS. VERY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED THUR AND FRI WITH
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING OUT OF THE 30S WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
LINGER. THINGS WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ENSUING AND WARMING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE FRONT OF THE
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE, SUPPORTING MORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
AREAS MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO
NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINE. REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
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