258
FXUS63 KUNR 182320
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
420 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEST CHANCES
FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
- BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN MT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER EASTERN WY, RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
WY. A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL WV INDICATES INCREASING CLOUD
COVER MOVING OVER CENTRAL WY AND INTO NE WY AND FAR SW SD, WHILE THE
REST OF THE REGION IS UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
STATIONS ACROSS NW SD ARE STILL REPORTING 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTS, LEFT
OVER FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH, WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION IS SEEING LIGHTER WINDS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY, BRINING WITH IT A SECOND COLD FRONT AND A ROUND OF
MUCH NEEDED SNOW TO THE REGION. PROBABILITY OF >4+ INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FOR THE BLACK HILLS HAS DROPPED OFF, CURRENTLY SITTING AT
40 TO 65 PERCENT, WHILE MUCH OF THE NE WY PLAINS ARE SITTING AT 45
TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE. THE PROBABILITY OF >2+ INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR
SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD PLAINS AND THE BLACK HILLS IS CURRENTLY AT
45 TO 75 PERCENT (NBM-CONUS), WITH LOWER PROBABILITY AS YOU HEAD
EAST AND NORTH. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NE WY PLAINS, SW
SD, AND INTO THE NE PANHANDLE, WHILE THE BLACK HILLS AND THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS HAVE BEEN SEEING A SHIFT TOWARDS LOWER AMOUNTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO: 1) THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM 2) WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN SD WITH
REGARDS TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW, NORTHEAST/NORTH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS, SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WHERE
SNOW/WINDS OVERLAP. COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT DROPPING HIGH TEMPS TO BELOW AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK TO
ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING BACK INTO THE 50S.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SNOW TOTALS FOR PARTS OF THE NE WY PLAINS, A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST THURSDAY. FOR THE BLACK
HILLS, SW SD, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST ON THURSDAY. AND FOR THE REST OF NE WY, A A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AFTER 02-04Z, THEN SPREAD
THROUGH SOUTHWEST SD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW. ACROSS NORTHWEST SD, DRIER
AIR WILL PREVENT SNOW FROM DEVELOPING, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ024>030-041-
042-044-047-072-074>077.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR WYZ057-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ054-056-
058-059.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ055.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SE
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