197
FXUS63 KUNR 240449
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1049 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018
AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ARE MOSTLY SUNNY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ND. WINDS ARE
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS, AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CWA. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SD, ALONG AN AREA OF ENHANCED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CWA WILL STAY DRY, WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S FOR HIGHS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS AND SPOTTY
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND MILD. THE STRONGEST WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING 50 KT 850 MB WINDS, BUT THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER. BUMPED UP WINDS A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MILD AND DRY
WEATHER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018
SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...POJORLIE
AVIATION...SHERBURN
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