729
FXUS63 KUNR 111028
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
428 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY, WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHERN SD. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND NE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CO AND SOUTHERN WY,
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS MT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE HIGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SKIES
ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF IT.
THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF
MORE DAYS AS RIDGE REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH
UPPER 80S AND 90S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD, MOSTLY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN TONIGHT, ALLOWING
SOME WEAK ENERGY TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO MAINLY NORTHWEST
SD, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, AT
LEAST OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS
RIDGE FURTHER WEAKENS AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER AT LEAST WESTERN
AREAS. NEITHER DAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS FAR AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL
GOES, WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE.
A MODEST COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING, AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND
ALLOWS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL DROP CLOSER TO AVERAGE LEVELS BY SUNDAY, WITH NEAR
OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHEAR
STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE WEAK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022
AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCATED IFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING ON THE PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND NORTHWEST SD, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT THU AUG 11 2022
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES
DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 10 TO
15 MPH RANGE. SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT
THEY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ012-013-031-032-043-073.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...26
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