220
FXUS63 KUNR 210503
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
IMPROVING.
- TURNING COLDER LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH COLDER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
IN STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SKIES ARE SUNNY
WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WILL KEEP SOUTH-CENTRAL SD IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING, BUT HAVE
DOWNGRADED THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SD TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS ARE UNDER
HIGH WIND CRITERIA. A 00Z EXPIRATION LOOKS REASONABLE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING RATHER QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.
COLD TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MANY
AREAS, AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A QUICK WARM UP ON THURSDAY, WITH MILD AND
DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WILL RACE ALONG
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND DRIVE COLDER AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW AT TIMES AS UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVERRUN THE COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME, NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10
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