167
FXUS63 KUNR 190738
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
138 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-HOT AND MAINLY DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK
-TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ON PORTIONS OF
THE SD PLAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90
-COOL AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH STAUNCH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER THROUGH SAT IN THE FA.
SEVERAL SUBTLE IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND PUSH
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ACROSS MT AND ND WITH STORMS
EXPECTED THERE. THESE STORM CLUSTERS COULD CERTAINLY CLIP NW SD
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ESP IF STRONG COLD POOLS BECOME ESTABLISHED,
WHICH WOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME CAPPING, MAKING STORM CHANCES
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. IF STORMS DO CLIP NW SD, THERE WOULD CERTAINLY
BE A CHANCE FOR THEM TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RIGHT NOW HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS
FOR THIS. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY AS A WEAK TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. THE
ONLY MODEL WHICH SUPPORTS THIS IS THE 3 KM NAM. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT
THERE ATTM GIVEN CONCERNS ON STAUNCH CAPPING EXPECTED AND VERY
LOW PROBS. IN ADDITION, SOME VERY HIGH BASED SHRA COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NW THIRD THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSING IMPULSE TO THE
NORTH, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO JUSTIFY ADDING POPS.
OTHERWISE, VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG CAPPING WILL LEAVE MOST PLACES
DRY THROUGH SAT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BREAK 100 ON THE SD PLAINS FRI-SAT, EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS INTO SCENTRAL SD, AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA, POTENTIALLY SETTING RECORD HIGHS. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADV FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD FRI AND SAT WHERE HEAT INDEX READINGS
WILL REACH 100-105. THIS AREA COULD POTENTIALLY BE EXPANDED WEST,
BUT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE
20S AND 30S, APPARENT T'S WILL BE COOLER THAN THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES MAKING IT HARD TO REACH CRITERIA. ALONG WITH THE
HEAT, IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH WSW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
FRI AND SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW SD,
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT,
WITH UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD, ESP LATER IN THE
WEEK GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR SDZ046-
047-049.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...WONG
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