759
FXUS63 KUNR 280505
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1005 PM MST SUN NOV 27 2022
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST SUN NOV 27 2022
21Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS LOW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH WEAK SURFACE
TROF LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 2PM ARE IN
THE 40S, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WESTERN CONUS TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST, WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
30S INITIALLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN HOLD OR SLOWLY FALL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE DAY, WITH AN INCH OR LESS
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR SOUTHERLY
TREND FOR THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CONSEQUENTLY, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE
BEEN REDUCED. BY TUESDAY MORNING, AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
BORDER, WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF SHARPLY TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S.
UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TEMPS RECOVERING
INTO THE 20S. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 27 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME -SN
MAY MOVE INTO NE WY AT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING AND MOVE OUT BY
AROUND 18Z, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...WONG
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