377
FXUS63 KUNR 092339
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
439 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ON THE PLAINS.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
- RETURN TO MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT, WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH
PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 1PM ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S, WITH
VERY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
FAST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS OVERNIGHT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE
SHIFTED BEST MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST, SO HAVE REDUCED
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE BLACK HILLS TO JUST 1 TO 3 INCHES.
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 1/2 INCH
AT BEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY BREEZY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING COULD
SEE SOME LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY.
WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FEW LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS COULD SEE
SOME LOWER 60S ON MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADING AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK
TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS, RESULTING IN SCT MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KT
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40KT
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN SD. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF AFTER
23Z ON SATURDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...SMITH
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