002
FXUS63 KUNR 090444
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
944 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UPSLOPE SNOW ENDS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER 1-3" OF ACCUMULATION
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTH/WEST OF
THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL NE.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN SD PLAINS WITH
UPLOPE-ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
TONIGHT, MAIN UPPER TROUGH/FORCING SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH
DECREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR THE BLACK HILLS. BUT, NOT BEFORE ANOTHER 1-3" OF
UPSLOPE (FROUDE >1, 0-2KM RH>90%) FALLS THROUGH THIS EVENING PER
HREF MEAN QPF. HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 900 PM
TO ACCOUNT. MODEST SIGNAL FOR A BIT MORE QPF FOR THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN FOOTHILLS, SO HAVE MASSAGED POPS/QPF TO ACCOUNT.
WIND HEADLINES ABOUT DONE AS STRONGEST POCKET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. WILL DROP THE REST OF THE WIND HEADLINES
BY 4PM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE CWA SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS,
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CHILLY LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GIVE
WAY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SURFACE TROUGHS MAY
BRING BREEZY SPOTS AT TIMES WITH ONE NOTED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE/10-20F ABOVE
NORMAL. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND NOTED ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z
IN THE BLACK HILLS. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THROUGH 17-19Z BEFORE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...SE
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