759  
FXUS63 KUNR 280505  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
1005 PM MST SUN NOV 27 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
21Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH  
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS LOW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH  
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH WEAK SURFACE  
TROF LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 2PM ARE IN  
THE 40S, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.  
 
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WESTERN CONUS TROF  
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST, WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING  
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL  
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE  
30S INITIALLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN HOLD OR SLOWLY FALL MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST  
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS DURING THE DAY, WITH AN INCH OR LESS  
OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  
 
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR SOUTHERLY  
TREND FOR THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
CONSEQUENTLY, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE  
BEEN REDUCED. BY TUESDAY MORNING, AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF  
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA  
BORDER, WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF SHARPLY TO THE NORTH.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS  
AND 20S.  
 
UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS  
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIDGING  
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TEMPS RECOVERING  
INTO THE 20S. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE  
WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY  
NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
SOUTH DAKOTA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME -SN  
MAY MOVE INTO NE WY AT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING AND MOVE OUT BY  
AROUND 18Z, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...15  
AVIATION...WONG  
 
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