406
FXUS65 KBYZ 080753
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
153 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, COOLER (68 TO 78), AND BREEZY TODAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS, A BIT WARMER (70S TO LOWER 80S), AND CONTINUED
BREEZY SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND (80S TO LOWER 90S) SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
PRODUCING COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH LOW LEVEL (850MB)
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES F COLDER THAN NORMAL TODAY, AND JUST
A BIT WARMER ON SATURDAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST,
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES (WHEATLAND->FALLON).
UPPER LOW IS JUST A BIT TOO FAR NORTH, PUTTING OUR AREA IN THE
DRIER QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM, BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY. CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE LOW BUT NON- ZERO WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR LOCATIONS
ABOVE ABOUT 10500FEET THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON TONIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, BUT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT, ALONG
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, FOR THOSE RECREATING IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY (BE PREPARED).
ENERGY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH ALLOWS
WARMER AND DRIER AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THE MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES,
OVERNIGHT LOWS DON'T DROP NEARLY AS MUCH, WITH LOWS HOLDING MAINLY
IN THE 50S, WITH 40S FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, ONLY A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF NORMALS FOR EARLY AUGUST. CHAMBERS
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY LEAVING DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. CURRENT NBM IS MAINLY
DRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN INHERENT INSTABILITY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONT
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS AGAIN COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, BUT NBM IS STILL
KEEPING PRECIPITATION BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR NOW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW ARE SEVERAL MORE DISTURBANCES THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE WEAK AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. DESPITE THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYS JUST ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION BUT
WESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD, LIMITING THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND
ALLOWING PWATS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WHICH IS
SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AGAIN
POTENTIALLY ABOVE THE CURRENT NBM SUGGESTION.
JET STREAM SAGS SOUTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING ANOTHER
CANADIAN COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES HANG IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS IN SUNDAY, WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM JUMPING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUSTAINED WESTERLY FLOW AND THE
PERIODIC PUSHES OF NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA, THIS SEEMS A BIT
AGGRESSIVE. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS 90+ ARE IN THE 40 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE MONDAY, 50 TO 70 PERCENT TUESDAY, AND IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FRONT DROPS PROBS UNDER 50 PERCENT FOR 90+ DEGREES. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE BY MIDDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
GUSTS ACROSS ALL SITES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS UNTIL MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND FAR EASTERN SITES, KMLS AND KBHK. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 056/080 055/084 058/091 061/092 061/089 060/089
2/W 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
LVM 072 046/077 046/082 050/089 054/091 053/089 053/087
2/W 11/B 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 076 055/081 052/084 054/091 058/093 059/092 059/091
2/W 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U
MLS 074 058/077 056/083 057/089 061/093 061/089 062/089
2/W 22/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 21/U
4BQ 075 056/079 055/082 059/088 060/092 062/090 063/090
2/W 11/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 20/U
BHK 074 053/075 053/081 055/087 057/091 058/087 058/086
3/T 12/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 21/U
SHR 074 048/078 050/081 052/087 055/092 057/089 057/089
2/T 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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