194
FXUS65 KBYZ 260100
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
600 PM MST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG POSSIBLE NEAR MILES CITY AND BAKER TONIGHT TO EARLY FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CANADIAN COLD FRONT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE IMPACTED BY POOR
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS.
- PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
UPDATE
DESPITE A WEAK IDA-LWT GRADIENT, WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING INTO THE
40S MPH TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS EVENING AROUND LIVINGSTON AS
MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. HAVE RAISED WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. A WIND
HIGHLITE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE (60% CHANCE). SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. STP
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A MERRY CHRISTMAS!
FIRST LET'S ADDRESS TODAY'S RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES. SHERIDAN
ALREADY BROKE ITS DAILY RECORD WITH 68F AT 316AM. BILLINGS IS
CURRENTLY 57F, BREAKING ITS OLD RECORD OF 56F IN 2005.
LIVINGSTON'S HIGH SO FAR IS 55F, ONE DEGREE SHORT OF ITS RECORD
WITH A FEW HOURS OF DAYTIME TO GO. OTHER LOCATIONS LIKE LODGE
GRASS AND FORT SMITH HAVE ALSO EXCEEDED 60F. A VERY WARM CHRISTMAS
INDEED.
WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY PER PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THE AIR MASS SHOULDN'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F, AND RECORDS FOR DEC 26 ARE HIGHER
AND TOUGHER TO REACH. A SATURDAY MORNING COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
RID US OF THIS OBNOXIOUS WARM STRETCH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP TROF ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST AND MOIST SW FLOW EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION. PWATS IN THE SW
FLOW ARE 170-190% OF NORMAL PER SATELLITE ESTIMATES, AND IN FACT
WE DID SEE A SMATTERING OF 0.01-0.05" RAINFALL TOTALS IN LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLIER TODAY. THESE SHOWERS HAVE REACHED OUR FAR
EAST AND WILL EXIT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE MOIST PACIFIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SW-W ASPECTS OF THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ~1" OF SWE AND 10-18" OF SNOW
(60% CHANCE OF A FOOT OR MORE), WHICH MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
AVALANCHE DANGER IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY. SOMETHING FOR
SNOWMOBILERS TO CONSIDER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AS WE AWAIT SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
FOOTHILLS WINDS, COURTESY OF 700MB WINDS OF 35-45 KNOTS AND A
IDA-LWT GRADIENT TIGHTENING TO ~13MB BY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE WINDS ALOFT AND GRADIENT, SURFACE TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING TOO WARM (I.E. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY) FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS, BUT 50 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED (80% CHANCE) AT THE GAP
LOCATIONS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS
REACHING 60 MPH IS 40%. A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROF WILL BRING 40-50 MPH GUSTS TO THE US-191 CORRIDOR
FROM BIG TIMBER THRU HARLOWTON BY LATE TOMORROW, AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY, EARLY IN THE NORTH, BY 18Z AT BILLINGS/MILES CITY AND
21Z AT SHERIDAN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SHARPER WITH A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF, SO THERE SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BRIEF SNOW
AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS NORTH TO SOUTH THRU THE REGION, WITH
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. MAKE NO
MISTAKE THIS IS NOT A STRONG SYSTEM AND OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE 1-3" ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, BUT WITH RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT SOME
ROADS WILL GO FROM WET TO ICY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
MAY INCLUDE BILLINGS BUT IS MORE LIKELY AT PLACES LIKE RED LODGE
AND SHERIDAN. SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ON
SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF OVER AN INCH OF SNOW IS 15% AT
BILLINGS AND 35-55% ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. TIME PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS SATURDAY MORNING TO MID EVENING. A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
A PIECE OF A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN AK/YUKON. LOOK
FOR BRISK POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS EAST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH A KLONDIKE CHINOOK SUNDAY NIGHT.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTINUES FROM THERE THRU MIDWEEK, WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL (HIGHS IN 40S TO LOWER 50S). IF THERE IS A POSSIBLE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IT IS WITH REGARD TO A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD HOLD INTO THURSDAY. LOTS
OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD HERE BUT THERE IS A BIT MORE OF A SIGNAL THAN
WHAT WAS SHOWN AMONG MODELS PREVIOUSLY. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY IS
FOR CONTINUED WARM/DRY WX INTO THURSDAY, BUT IF WE DO SEE A
BACKDOOR FRONT (DUE TO ENERGY DROPPING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS) THAT COULD INTRODUCE POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING
SNOW ALONG W/ MUCH COLDER TEMPS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING.
STAY TUNED.
JKL
AVIATION
IN GENERAL, VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING NEAR KMLS AND KBHK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
LIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED DUE TO SNOW. SW TO W SURFACE WINDS WILL
GUST 30-45 KTS AT KLVM THROUGH FRIDAY. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/057 032/041 008/028 018/041 029/047 029/045 023/040
01/B 06/O 20/U 00/B 00/B 11/E 11/E
LVM 040/053 033/038 009/030 016/040 026/045 030/048 028/047
12/W 27/S 20/U 00/B 00/E 01/E 01/E
HDN 032/058 030/043 004/024 011/041 024/047 024/042 018/038
10/B 06/O 30/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/E
MLS 029/051 027/037 000/014 005/037 024/043 022/034 014/033
00/B 02/S 20/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 11/B
4BQ 034/057 033/047 004/017 008/039 025/045 025/041 018/038
00/B 02/O 20/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 10/B
BHK 028/053 026/038 904/009 901/033 020/040 017/034 012/030
00/U 01/N 20/N 00/U 01/B 22/J 11/B
SHR 030/058 030/048 001/023 009/042 022/046 024/048 021/044
01/U 15/O 50/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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