836
FXUS65 KBYZ 220138
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
638 PM MST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND; WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
BILLINGS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY; EXPECT HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON
PORTIONS OF I-90 AND US-191.
- THE PROLONGED WARM SPELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT ONTO FROZEN GROUND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PONDING OF WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAND FLOODING, AND ICE
JAM DEVELOPMENT/RELEASE ON CREEKS AND STREAMS AS EARLY AS THIS
WEEKEND, CONTINUING NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION, CHECK THE
POSTED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. BECAUSE OF THIS, A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AND BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME, SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED, STRONGEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A 70 MPH
OR GREATER WIND GUST. AROUND BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON, STRONG WINDS
UP TO 65 MPH ARE FORECAST, STRONGEST SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A 60 MPH OR GREATER WIND GUST AROUND BIG
TIMBER AND A 65 PERCENT CHANCE AROUND HARLOWTON. BECAUSE OF THIS,
A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY FOR THE BIG TIMBER, MELVILLE, HARLOWTON, AND JUDITH GAP
AREAS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA, 20 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND FORT SMITH, OVER AREAS ALONG THE
CLARKS FORK OF THE YELLOWSTONE OUT OF THE BIGHORN BASIN, AND OVER
THE HIGHER HILLS OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
SEE STRONG WINDS DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY IN THE CRAZY AND
BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA RANGES. WHILE WINDS LOOK TO TAPER OFF A BIT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TODAY
WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL, BUT BLOWABLE SNOW MAY STILL EXIST IN
SHADED AREAS AND ON TREES AROUND THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE THE OTHER BIG STORY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES, SNOWMELT CAN OCCUR AROUND THE CLOCK. THIS IS
WHEN WE EXPECT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM MELTING SNOW TO INCREASE.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE REGION, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS (15 TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS). WHILE
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME,
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ARENDS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE YET AGAIN ANOTHER BREEZY DAY FOR THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WITH SOME OF THE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA ALSO GETTING INVOLVED. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL PICK RIGHT BACK UP
AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LIVINGSTON'S GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FIRST AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND LWT
INCREASES OVER 10HPA AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY
AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION ERODES WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF
STRONG GUSTS ALONG US US-191 CORRIDOR. 700HPA WINDS, PER THE
LATEST GFS RUN, ARE FORECAST TO GET OVER 50KTS MIDDAY TUESDAY.
COMBINE THAT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SFC TO 3KM LAPSE RATES FORECAST
TO BE AT 7.5C/KM THIS WIND SHOULD MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES THIS 700HPA WIND MAX WILL SLIDE EASTWARDS AND LET
MOST OF THE CWA GUST UP TO 30MPH AS SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE
~6.5C/KM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A FEW OF INCHES OF SNOW
INTO THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN
8" AT MOST TOTAL. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR THIS CONTINUE TO REND DOWNWARDS
WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER AND DECENTLY MOISTURE STARVED LACKING A DIRECT TAP INTO
PACIFIC MOISTURE.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE START OF A QUIETER PERIOD AS THE WINDS DIE
DOWN AND THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA GETS HIGHER IN
AMPLITUDE. MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN WANT TO DEVELOP A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW CONUS BY FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE SETS UP,
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. THIS CUTOFF LOW DOES NOT STICK AROUND LONG AS
IT IS KICKED OUT TO THE EAST TO END THE WEEKEND BY A POTENTIALLY
SPLIT FLOW TROUGH WHICH COULD BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO START
THE MONTH. WMR
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 01Z...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE INCREASING WIND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
AND POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW. SW-W WINDS GUSTING
25-35 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL INCREASE TO 35-45
KNOTS TONIGHT (HIGHEST AT KLVM) AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
K6S0 HAS SEEN FREQUENT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR-IFR IN BLSN TODAY, BUT
KLVM HAS NOT, YET. AS GUSTS INCREASE TONIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
KLVM SEES REDUCED VISIBILITY AS WELL. AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW. KBIL MAY ALSO
SEE SHALLOW DRIFTING (DRSN) AT THE TERMINAL. THIS WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/041 033/045 038/047 033/046 031/045 029/049 033/049
00/N 01/N 32/R 14/R 21/U 00/U 11/B
LVM 025/043 033/045 038/047 035/043 025/043 026/049 029/047
00/Q 02/O 42/R 25/O 10/N 00/U 11/B
HDN 016/043 026/047 034/049 029/048 030/047 024/053 030/051
01/B 02/O 32/R 14/O 21/B 00/U 11/B
MLS 021/039 030/044 036/049 030/048 031/046 027/051 032/049
01/B 01/N 22/R 02/O 21/B 00/U 11/B
4BQ 021/042 028/048 034/050 030/050 032/046 029/054 033/050
00/B 00/B 22/R 02/R 31/B 00/U 11/B
BHK 018/040 026/047 031/050 025/048 026/043 023/049 025/044
00/Q 00/N 12/R 03/R 31/N 00/U 11/N
SHR 017/045 025/050 033/051 028/050 026/045 024/054 029/050
00/B 01/B 12/R 04/O 31/U 00/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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