726
FXUS65 KBYZ 241929
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1229 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY/TONIGHT.
- GUSTY TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS (30 TO 55 MPH) TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (STRONGEST WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN
MT).
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE (20-40%) WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. STAY TUNED IF YOU HAVE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRAVEL
PLANS!
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL START WITH THE QUICK HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION RIGHT NOW. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A NARROW BAND OF MORE INTENSE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS FRONT SHOULD
BE IN THE FOOTHILLS BY 21Z, BILLINGS BY 23Z, AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BY 01Z. THE LARGEST QUESTION AT THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FROPA IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. BOTH THE HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLES
SHOW A HIGHER PROBABILITY THAT THIS PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN,
HOWEVER, THE CAA IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG AND THUS AN
EARLIER CHANGEOVER IS QUITE POSSIBLE. THE P-TYPE WILL HAVE MASSIVE
IMPLICATIONS IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL IMPACTS FOR SE MT AND US-212
AS SNOW FALLING IN THE GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL GREATLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
GUST TO 40MPH WITH 55MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE HILLS. IF
THE PRECIP DOES FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, TRAVEL MAY BECOME
DANGEROUS FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT, TUESDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO 5F BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY. A 700MB JET WITH WINDS UP TO 50KTS WILL
BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WHICH COULD BRING NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS IN THE 40S MPH, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING. ADDITIONALLY, SOME BACKSIDE SNOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW
FOCUSED AROUND BAKER. THIS COULD, YET AGAIN, POSE A TRAVEL RISK
DURING THE DAY WITH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY.
MODELS ALSO SHOW ALL ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION COOLING TO
FREEZING BEFORE NOON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ON ROADWAYS AS WELL. IMPACTED ROADS DO INCLUDE I-94 AND US-12.
WMR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE ROUGHLY AROUND AVERAGE
THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. FOR THE BILLINGS AREA THIS
TRANSLATES TO HIGHS AROUND 40F AND LOWS IN THE MID 20SF.
LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING AND INTO FRIDAY, SMALL AMOUNTS OF
ENERGY START TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO START FALLING IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
BILLINGS BEFORE THE END OF THANKSGIVING DINNER.
THE MAIN SHOW GETS GOING AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENTERS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS, THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL IN FOR A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATION EVENT THIS WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA HAS A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 3" OF SNOWFALL
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND MONDAY. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST WHERE WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT LOWS LOOK
LIKELY. ALL THIS TO SAY, IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOLLOWING
THANKSGIVING, KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT AND MORE DETAILS EMERGE. WMR
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 40
KTS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES,
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 50 KTS NEAR ANY STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALSO, CONDITIONS
COULD DROP TO IFR AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ANY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
6 AND 12 Z TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 023/038 025/041 028/038 027/039 017/025 010/020 007/029
20/B 02/J 12/W 45/W 44/J 54/J 21/B
LVM 018/037 024/043 028/045 029/041 017/030 007/023 011/033
20/B 24/J 24/W 45/W 44/J 53/J 21/B
HDN 023/038 021/041 025/041 024/037 016/027 008/020 004/029
61/U 03/W 12/W 56/W 55/J 65/J 32/J
MLS 025/035 019/036 018/035 023/032 014/023 007/018 004/025
72/J 00/E 00/E 44/J 32/J 42/J 21/E
4BQ 026/034 019/037 021/038 025/036 017/026 010/018 007/025
82/J 00/E 00/E 23/J 23/J 43/J 21/B
BHK 022/032 012/036 013/035 017/029 011/023 004/018 002/026
84/J 00/E 00/B 34/J 32/J 32/J 21/B
SHR 018/034 015/039 021/041 022/041 014/028 005/020 003/030
71/N 02/J 11/E 35/W 54/J 65/J 32/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 33-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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