117
FXUS65 KBYZ 190848
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE IS FROM BILLINGS EAST ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS INTO
THE 30S MPH POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND. PWATS WILL BE AROUND
100-130% OF NORMAL BOTH DAYS AND MUCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG
OVER THE FOOTHILLS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR BOTH DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FOR TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 3 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EBWD ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. AS A RESULT, THE MAIN THREATS WITH SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 2 PM THROUGH 10 PM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE (50-80% TODAY, 20-50% FRIDAY) FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 90 IS ALONG RIVER VALLEYS FROM BILLINGS EAST. ARCHER
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROF WITH STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE ID/WA/OR TRIPLE POINT EARLY SATURDAY, PUSHING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE ALONG THE HIGH-LINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A GOOD PORTION OF
THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THERE, INTO
CANADA. HOWEVER A LINGERING BROAD TROF WILL PERSIST OVER MONTANA,
SNAKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
SENSIBLE WEATHER THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL COOL FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S FRIDAY
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY (SOME 50S WESTERN FOOTHILLS).
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY IN SPOTS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (POTENTIALLY STRONG
EAST) ON SATURDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN COLD AIR PUSH BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY, AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. BACK INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THIS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG
ITS PATH. UNFORTUNATELY THE CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL MOVE
MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA LEAVING US ON THE DRIER (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY DRY) SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. STILL TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THIS SYSTEMS TRACK SO STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR ANY CHANGES. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH 17-19Z TOMORROW. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY, MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS (KBIL/KLVM
PROB30). CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 059/085 057/078 048/062 044/070 049/076 052/080
1/U 22/T 42/T 66/T 21/U 12/T 24/T
LVM 086 053/083 048/070 040/059 036/069 040/075 044/078
3/T 55/T 74/T 68/T 32/T 22/T 33/T
HDN 090 058/088 057/080 048/062 042/071 048/076 051/080
0/U 31/U 42/T 76/T 31/U 22/T 34/T
MLS 093 063/091 063/081 050/063 044/069 050/075 053/079
0/U 42/T 32/W 75/T 21/U 23/T 44/T
4BQ 091 061/091 060/083 051/064 045/068 052/073 053/076
0/U 11/U 11/U 53/T 31/B 34/T 45/T
BHK 092 058/088 059/084 051/064 043/066 047/071 050/073
0/U 32/T 21/U 54/T 21/B 34/T 44/T
SHR 090 055/087 054/081 046/060 040/069 047/073 048/076
1/U 11/U 11/U 66/T 42/T 34/T 36/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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