658
FXUS65 KBYZ 031824
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1124 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40-55 MPH AT LIVINGSTON & NYE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING; GUSTY CROSSWINDS ON I-90.
- COOLER WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, HIGHEST FOR NORTH ASPECTS. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1
TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG FOOTHILLS (E.G. RED LODGE & STORY),
WITH A 30% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
- WARM WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 60S, AND WOULD BE SURPRISED IF A FEW NOTORIOUSLY WARMER
SPOTS DIDN'T HIT 70F. THE AIR MASS IS WARMEST WEDNESDAY BUT WE'LL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOO. IN ADDITION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY SW GAP WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. LACK OF REAL COLD AIR IN YNP AND WEAK LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN CHECK (10MB OR
LESS), AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST, SO GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AT 40-50 MPH. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS NEXT PACIFIC TROF ARRIVES, AND THIS WILL BRING COOLER
(BUT NOT COLD) TEMPS TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK.
TROF PASSAGE WILL BRING SOME PRECIP TO MUCH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO FRIDAY. WITH THIS WE ARE CONFIDENT BUT THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DETAILS DUE TO: (1) PACIFIC TROF
SPLITTING AS IT MOVES THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND (2) ANOTHER
WEAKER BUT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE MAIN TROF. THE SECONDARY WAVE SHOULD PROLONG THE ASCENT AND
COULD DEEPEN THE MAIN LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, A
SCENARIO WHICH COULD BRING WET SNOW TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MT. IF
THE SPLITTING LOW STAYS SOUTH THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAKER AND BRUNT
OF PRECIP IS OVER NORTH ASPECTS OF OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALL OF
THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW THOUGH, WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS (A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS), A LITTLE WET SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
HIGHER HILLS, AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
(HEAVIEST ON NW-N ASPECTS). FOR THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS THERE IS
A HIGH PROBABILITY (75% CHANCE) OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
WILL ALSO LIKELY AFFECT TRAVEL ON US-14 THRU THE BIGHORNS. AS FOR
THE FOOTHILLS, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE RED LODGE
AND STORY AT 2-3", BUT IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A BIT MORE ORGANIZED
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE/UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BRING SEVERAL MORE INCHES
THAN THAT. STAY TUNED.
FOR BILLINGS METRO AREA, WET SNOW COULD FALL BRIEFLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, BUT SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD STAY TOO WARM
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION, EXCEPT MAYBE OVER THE HILLS SOUTH OF TOWN.
SYSTEM DEPARTS IN SOME FASHION BY LATE FRIDAY, AND IS RAPIDLY
REPLACED BY RISING HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ENSEMBLES SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR STRONG FOOTHILLS WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND,
60+ MPH GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. THE PATTERN
ALSO SUPPORTS ELEVATED SW-W WINDS EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS, PERHAPS
50 MPH GUSTS INTO ROUNDUP AND BILLINGS. PEAK WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE IN THE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY PRE-FRONTAL PERIOD...BUT
ENSEMBLES BECOME MORE SPREAD WITH THE REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL BREAK
DOWN OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE. OTHER THAN WIND, THE WEEKEND
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS BACK TO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F.
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO LOWER
HEIGHTS AND SOME SORT OF TROFFING OVER THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS (BY TUESDAY
IF NOT MONDAY) AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP, WHICH MAY INCLUDE
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW IF WE TAP INTO ENOUGH COLDER CANADIAN AIR.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (INCLUDING KLVM) THIS EVENING. STP/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 039/066 040/050 031/048 031/059 042/065 043/063
0/U 00/B 27/W 52/W 00/N 11/N 24/W
LVM 061 039/060 037/045 029/043 027/053 039/058 042/058
0/U 00/N 68/W 53/J 00/N 11/N 24/W
HDN 066 030/067 034/052 028/048 027/060 039/065 040/063
0/U 00/U 16/W 63/W 00/N 12/W 24/W
MLS 060 030/062 029/050 025/045 028/058 039/061 038/058
0/U 00/U 02/W 31/B 00/N 12/W 24/W
4BQ 062 032/065 032/054 027/043 026/056 039/062 039/061
0/U 00/U 02/W 32/J 00/U 11/B 23/W
BHK 058 030/062 026/049 023/040 024/054 034/057 033/056
0/U 00/U 01/B 21/E 01/N 12/W 23/W
SHR 062 028/065 030/052 029/041 019/055 031/060 034/061
0/U 00/U 07/W 75/J 00/U 11/U 13/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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