498
FXUS65 KBYZ 150955
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY LOWERS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOW
80S F FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS LOW TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
LOCALIZED FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS THIS MORNING.
THE GREATEST IMPACTS OBSERVED AS OF 4 AM MDT HAVE BEEN AROUND
BAKER, WHERE THE AIRPORT IS REPORTING 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. OTHER
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS FROM FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE IN
AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF BILLINGS. FOR BILLINGS, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (10-30% CHANCE) FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. LOOK FOR ANY
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO ERODE LATER THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MATOS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS SHOWERS MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INITIATING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW, A
SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN MT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOR THE FOOTHILL AREAS WHERE 1000 J/KG OR LESS
OF MUCAPE AND 20-30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR AN INCH, HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS. INTO MONDAY,
ENSEMBLES THE SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CANADA DRAGGING SOME ENERGY BEHIND IT, KEEPING LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS HEIGHTS
DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY, A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING THIS, CLUSTERS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TODAY, WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S (NEAR NORMAL) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TS
AVIATION
10Z DISCUSSION...
LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR TERMINALS INCLUDING AND EAST
OF KBIL THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED, WITH IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. LOCALIZED VLIFR MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL, AS IS THE CASE WITH KBHK WHERE IT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING SINCE 09Z. THE OTHER TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG ARE KMLS AND K97M. ELSEWHERE,
LOW CEILINGS WILL REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR THRU ~16Z.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BEGINNING AROUND 20Z, WITH IMPACTS MAINLY CLOSE TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. POTENTIAL TS TIMES
ARE LISTED BELOW:
KLVM 21-03Z
KBIL 00-05Z
KSHR 21-04Z
JKL/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 057/083 058/086 059/079 055/082 057/086 059/090
2/B 42/T 21/B 66/T 41/B 11/B 11/U
LVM 078 045/083 047/084 047/079 044/082 047/085 050/089
2/T 62/U 31/B 76/T 41/B 11/U 11/U
HDN 078 053/084 053/087 055/081 050/084 052/088 053/091
2/B 32/B 21/B 65/T 41/B 11/B 00/U
MLS 078 055/084 057/086 058/080 052/083 055/087 057/090
1/B 12/W 31/B 56/T 21/B 12/W 11/U
4BQ 077 057/083 058/087 060/080 054/082 056/086 058/089
2/W 13/W 21/B 46/T 22/T 21/U 11/U
BHK 078 050/082 052/086 054/079 048/081 050/085 052/088
0/B 03/T 51/B 56/T 31/B 12/W 11/U
SHR 074 048/080 049/083 052/078 048/080 049/085 051/089
7/T 33/T 11/B 67/T 33/T 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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