202
FXUS65 KBYZ 081052
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
352 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS TODAY, SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
- BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
THIS EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 20S FOR MANY PLACES OVERNIGHT,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE TEENS, BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WAS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES TO
THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING, SPREADING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT THROUGH BILLINGS ABOUT MID DAY, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-30 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A BAND OF SNOW HEADING INTO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTH
CENTRAL WY INTO THE EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE REGION. QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY LATE TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES, WHILE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
(PROBABILITY OF 1 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MT; 40-70%). WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 TODAY, ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW FREEZING HEADING INTO THE EVENING. ROADS THAT ARE WET
COULD GET SLICK THIS EVENING, INCLUDING I90 THROUGH SHERIDAN
COUNTY, AND US212 THROUGH SOUTHEAST MT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS, WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL SEE GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS, WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE, AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH FOR
THE US191 CORRIDOR. IN THE COOL, UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW, A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (15-30% CHANCE). HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S, COOLEST OVER THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THOUGH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE WAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
THOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. PERSISTENT GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE IDA-LWT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO 12-14 MB OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATING GRADIENTS GETTING AS STRONG AS 15-20 MB EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS, IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH
OR GREATER RANGE FROM 60% FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE, TO 30-40% FOR
AREAS ALONG THE US191 CORRIDOR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NBM KEEPS
PROBABILITIES OF 50 MPH WINDS AT ROUGHLY 20-50% THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, SO ADDITIONAL WIND HIGHLITES MAY BE NEEDED. STP
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF TODAY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTHERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON. REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE FOR KRED-KBIL-KSHR WITH
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT, IMPACTING KLVM. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041 026/041 032/050 033/052 035/056 041/057 038/058
2/J 00/N 00/B 00/N 00/B 12/W 10/B
LVM 034 021/035 027/044 028/049 032/050 036/051 036/054
3/J 21/N 00/N 00/N 00/N 12/W 10/B
HDN 041 024/040 029/049 029/054 030/056 039/056 035/056
4/J 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/B 12/W 11/B
MLS 039 023/034 022/039 025/050 032/053 038/052 032/049
2/J 20/B 11/E 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 039 024/034 025/040 027/051 031/053 039/051 033/050
4/J 60/B 32/J 00/B 00/B 12/W 11/B
BHK 037 019/031 014/032 018/048 027/050 032/046 026/044
1/B 20/N 21/E 00/B 00/B 11/E 11/B
SHR 037 016/034 020/044 024/054 027/055 031/052 030/052
6/J 51/N 21/B 00/B 00/B 12/W 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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