462
FXUS65 KBYZ 122019
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
219 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING.
- PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH
COLDER AIR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE PERIODS
OF WET SNOW.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 FEET FORECAST FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
- MODELS TRENDS HAVE PUSHED THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT LOWER BUT STEADY
ACCUMULATIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- ABOUT A 50-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 12 INCHES OF SNOW FOR AREAS
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MT
AND THE FOOTHILLS MAY SEE 5-10 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WINDS...HIGH WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS EXPECTED. GUSTS
50 TO 70 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTS 70 TO 90 MPH
CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE LIVINGSTON/BIG TIMBER/JUDITH GAP
CORRIDOR. SOME NOTABLE REPORTS INCLUDE BILLINGS AIRPORT PEAKED AT
74 MPH...MILES CITY 83 MPH AND BAKER 84 MPH THANKS TO STRONG CAA
OVER THAT REGION. GUST TO 91 MPH AT SPRINGDALE EAST OF LIVINGSTON.
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. A CONVECTIVE
LOOKING LINE OF SHOWERS IS DROPPING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MONTANA
AT THIS TIME AND COULD MIX DOWN ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER GUSTS
LOCALLY (THINK GUSTS TO 60-70 MPH). COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH WE WILL SEE WINDS DIE DOWN. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD DROP
OFF IN SPEEDS BY 7-8 PM.
LATEST TRENDS...MODELS PUSH COLDER AIR SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BUT
REFUSE TO PUSH IT FURTHER WEST AND KEEP IT WELL OFF THE FOOTHILLS.
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING AREA
FROM WHEATLAND COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY. HOWEVER, SNOW
RATIOS HAVE DECREASED DUE TO TEMPERATURES LINGERING FROM UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S, THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY ON
ROAD SURFACES. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST ABOUT 1-2 INCHES
OVERNIGHT IN THIS BAND. THE BAND THEN LIFTS A BIT NORTH AND EAST
FOR FRIDAY WITH SNOWFALL FROM THE SNOWIES TO SOUTHERN ROSEBUD
COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH HIGHER
HILLS PICKING UP 2-4 INCHES, AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ON VALLEY
FLOORS. ANY PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS MAY ONLY BE
RAIN OR A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. MARCH SUN ANGLE HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ON ROADS AS WELL DURING THE DAY.
MODELS INDICATE COLDER AIR FINALLY PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND
DEEPENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES BY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR
A BETTER OVERRUNNING AND EFFICIENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION PHASE.
BY SATURDAY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS IN THE
FOOTHILLS TO PRODUCE A GOOD UPSLOPE. WE WILL ADJUST THE TIMING OF
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS TO
START 3 PM FRIDAY RATHER THAN NOON. LIVINGSTON IS STILL A TOUGH
CALL, BUT SHOULD START SEEING A BETTER CHANCE OF EASTERLY FLOW
OVERCOMING THE WEST WINDS AND SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY.
AT THAT POINT, WOULD LIKELY JUST SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL, SO
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH FOR THEM. WILL UPGRADE SOUTHERN ROSEBUD
TO AND POWDER RIVER TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS, UPGRADE NORTHERN
ROSEBUD AS WELL, BUT ADJUST START TIME TO 3 AM FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH OF WET SNOW
TONIGHT...BUT MODELS LIFT THE SNOW NORTH FRIDAY AND THEN DISAGREE
IF AND WHEN IT DROPS INTO THE AREA AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. MAY NEED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SHERIDAN AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
WILL CANCEL WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA FOR NOW.
BOTTOM LINE...LOOK FOR AREAS OF A MORE STEADY TO LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVIER SNOW KICKS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOOTHILLS DO NOT GET HIT MUCH UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
THINGS WIND DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.
NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLES BRING IN HIGHER HEIGHTS UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH, LIKELY
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS WILL RETURN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING THE TO 40S/50S/60S MON-TUES WITH LOW
70S POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. BT
AVIATION
STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY 03Z FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S KTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
LIGHT WINDS BY 06Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
LONGER FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH GAP AREAS SUCH AS KLVM
SEEING WIND GUSTS REMAIN IN THE 30S KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW STARTING
AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. KLVM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. KBHK IS NOT EXPECTED TO START
GETTING SNOW UNTIL AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/039 029/040 011/030 015/045 037/062 042/071 046/077
99/J ++/J 82/J 12/W 21/N 00/B 00/B
LVM 038/053 037/048 015/034 022/050 042/064 045/070 048/072
89/W 9+/J 82/J 45/W 41/N 00/N 00/N
HDN 028/040 027/042 012/031 010/045 034/061 037/071 040/078
9+/J ++/J 93/J 13/W 21/E 00/B 00/B
MLS 025/037 024/034 012/024 006/035 028/057 037/067 041/072
46/J 79/J 81/B 02/J 21/E 00/B 00/B
4BQ 027/040 027/040 013/026 006/038 028/059 039/070 043/076
78/J 89/J 92/J 01/E 21/E 00/B 00/U
BHK 020/036 021/030 008/022 002/032 021/053 035/065 039/068
15/J 59/J 82/J 02/J 32/W 00/B 00/U
SHR 025/046 026/048 009/028 009/043 030/061 036/071 040/076
+7/W 89/W 93/J 02/W 21/B 00/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>68-138-139-141-169>173-228-235.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
29-30-34-42-57-63-138-141-171>173-228-235.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONE 31.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 36-58.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 56-66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 198-199.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page