355
FXUS65 KBYZ 222104
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
304 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED
THE TRANQUIL WEATHER OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
SLIDE EASTWARD AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES MIGHT COOL ENOUGH
FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN ABOVE 9000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST MT ON
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER MT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WINDS COULD GUST TO ABOUT 30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF A MILES CITY TO SHERIDAN LINE. THEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
WESTERLIES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
OVER THE AREA. THESE WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING. RMS
LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CALIF COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER W/NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
TRACKING THROUGH THAT FLOW OVER OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INCREASED WIND. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS
TIME SEEMS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, ANY REALLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
BLOCKED OFF IN CANADA, SO TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SEASONAL INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BT
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BAKER MAY
RECEIVE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERTZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/063 042/069 042/064 044/062 039/057 037/057 037/060
00/U 11/B 11/B 24/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 035/063 041/065 039/062 042/059 036/056 035/057 038/058
01/B 10/B 11/B 13/W 22/W 11/N 12/W
HDN 035/064 040/070 039/066 041/062 037/058 034/058 035/061
00/U 11/B 11/B 35/W 22/W 11/B 11/B
MLS 035/065 040/067 040/065 041/059 037/056 033/055 034/057
00/U 00/B 01/B 03/W 12/W 11/B 10/B
4BQ 035/065 041/067 040/066 041/060 037/055 033/056 034/060
00/U 11/B 01/B 03/W 12/W 11/B 10/B
BHK 031/061 038/066 038/064 038/058 033/054 030/052 030/054
00/N 10/B 00/U 02/W 02/W 11/U 00/B
SHR 036/063 039/065 039/063 039/061 036/055 033/057 034/060
01/B 11/B 01/B 03/W 22/W 21/B 10/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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