106
FXUS65 KBYZ 121043
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
343 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND GAP LOCATIONS WEST OF
BILLINGS TODAY, 50-65 MPH. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
30S TO LOW 50S, STRONGEST INCLUDING AND NORTH-WEST OF BILLINGS.
- DRY, WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF GRASS FIRES,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY.
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FLATTENING RIDGE ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60SF) AND GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND GAPS WEST OF BILLINGS (FOR NOW) AND
INCREASED GRASS FIRE DANGER.
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (>7C/KM) ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL HELP MIX STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS (40-50 KNOTS AT
850MB AND 50-60 KNOTS AT 700MB) DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE MODELS
INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE WEST, THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE DEPICTING INCREASING 850MB FLOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
APPROACHING 50 MPH AS FAR EAST AS BILLINGS AS OF 3AM, CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF THIS WIND PUZZLE IS
THE CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY, BASED ON SOUNDINGS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR
DISCUSSION, MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING TO GRASP CURRENT
CONDITIONS, AS OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN IN SOUNDINGS. WITH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS IN
THE 40S AND 50S EARLY THIS MORNING, IT IS FAIR TO WONDER IF
INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN HEALTHY MIXING. AN 850-700MB WIND
MAX CONTINUES TO SHOW UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA, THOUGH MODELS DO
NOT QUITE BRING IT DOWN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BE
WORTH MONITORING AS ANY SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH MAY BRING GUSTIER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST HAS
GUSTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S MPH SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS INCLUDING
AND NORTH-WEST OF BILLINGS. FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS, GUSTS
IN THE 30S TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER
THE HIGHER HILLS.
WITH ALL THIS SAID, A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
US-191 CORRIDOR, FROM BIG TIMBER THROUGH JUDITH GAP, INCLUDING THE
MELVILLE FOOTHILLS. WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUSTS FAVORED AROUND HARLOWTON. ADDITIONALLY, THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11AM
TUESDAY, WITH SW WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 55 TO 65 MPH.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASED GRASS FIRE DANGER DUE
TO THE CONTINUED WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
PERCENT AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS. THE CONCERN WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 60SF
(COOLEST IN THE EAST), ALTHOUGH WINDS DO DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME DAILY RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED.
A QUICK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRONG NW FLOW ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AGREEMENT IN THERE BEING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
BIGHORNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FOR THE BIGHORNS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LESS CERTAIN, THOUGH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE CRASHING EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
DISTURBANCE. THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN DROPPING THROUGH BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY, BRINGING EVEN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS AND A
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS IS MODERATE, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
PRESENCE OF ANOTHER STRONG 700MB JET AND 850MB WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS IS CONCERNING, AS ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS AND LOCAL WIND
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING MAX WIND GUST VALUES. CURRENTLY, THE
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS 50 MPH OR GREATER IS 30-60% ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PLAINS, AND 50-80% FOR CUSTER, CARTER, FALLON,
POWDER RIVER, AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY
FOR 50+ MPH GUSTS ON FRIDAY IS 40-75% ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER AND
IN NORTHERN WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL A BIT TO END THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO MID 40S
ON FRIDAY (COOLEST IN THE EAST BOTH DAYS). UNFORTUNATELY, CLUSTERS
AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAYBE THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY FEBRUARY BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE.
MATOS
AVIATION
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH
THIS, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
(KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT) WHERE PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA, WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 TO 40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST. BEFORE THESE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY THIS
MORNING. THIS INCLUDES KBIL, KMLS, AND KBHK. WHILE THE STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF KSHR TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY AT KSHR BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 047/060 037/060 038/051 027/044 028/053 032/054
1/N 11/N 00/B 01/N 00/B 00/B 00/U
LVM 053 042/054 036/058 034/050 024/044 028/052 030/051
0/N 11/N 00/N 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U
HDN 060 044/058 034/059 036/050 025/041 023/049 027/052
1/N 12/W 10/B 01/U 00/B 01/B 00/U
MLS 060 043/053 030/049 035/044 024/034 020/040 024/044
0/N 11/E 00/B 01/N 10/N 00/B 00/U
4BQ 057 043/052 032/051 036/046 024/034 022/042 026/046
0/N 13/W 10/B 01/N 10/N 11/B 00/U
BHK 054 037/047 025/043 031/041 016/029 013/035 017/038
0/N 02/W 00/B 01/N 20/N 11/B 00/B
SHR 058 037/055 030/055 031/048 021/037 021/047 026/051
0/B 03/W 10/B 01/N 10/N 01/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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