910
FXUS65 KBYZ 140636
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1236 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AROUND 4-7 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL MT, WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY.
- ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 6-18 INCHES FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
- A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
40-55 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON CO. AND SHERIDAN CO., WY
CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM HARLOWTON TO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNDER MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING
THIS BAND SLIGHTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASING TREND OF A
WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN FROM AREAS
OF BIG TIMBER TO BILLINGS AND JOLIET TO HARDIN. WITH MOST OF THE
ROADS ALREADY WET, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL JUST BECOME SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF
0.05 INCHES OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE FORECASTED, WITH FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES DROPPING OFF BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS SPREAD IN
JUST HOW WARM TEMPS WILL GET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THAT WARMER AIR WILL GO, GIVING WAY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THIS FREEZING RAIN TO GO NORTH OF BILLINGS. AREAS FROM
HARLOWTON TO ROUNDUP TO BAKER ARE EXPECTED TO GET AN ADDITIONAL
3-7 INCHES THROUGH THE EVENT, WITH AREAS SOUTHWARD AT AN
ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES. THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE AROUND 6-18 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
BIGHORNS AT ANOTHER 5-10 INCHES.
AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR THAT HAS INCREASED IS THE INSTABILITY AND
RESULTING GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG
TIMBER AREA, BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING ALONG
I-90 MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND A TIGHT
GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN WY, WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND
50-60 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY, MT AND SHERIDAN COUNTY,
WY. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND NOT MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AS WE HAVE FREQUENTLY SEEN
THE PAST FEW MONTHS. TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 212 TO RED LODGE AND
ALONG I-90 FROM LAME DEER THROUGH SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL BE
HAZARDOUS WITH BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BELOW A HALF
MILE AT TIMES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW A HALF MILE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM MDT. THESE
CHANCES WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY,
WY. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING AND LEAVE PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRAVEL.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST SUNDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
BUILD IN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH MONDAY, BUT ENSEMBLES
KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. TS
AVIATION
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW, BEFORE A SURGE OF COLDER AIR DROPS IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE TRICKY PART WILL BE HOW THIS WARM
ADVECTION LINES UP WITH THE RECENT 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW THAT HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (OUTSIDE OF THE FAR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS KLVM) WITH REGARD TO SURFACE WARMING AS WELL AS MIXED
WINDS. GFS AND ITS PROXIES ARE HOLDING WINDS DOWN AND KEEPING LOW
CEILINGS/FOG IN PLACE WITH MAINLY SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS
THE REGION. NAM AND ITS PROXIES ARE SLIDING A STRONG WARM TONGUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN FROM BEFORE SUNRISE INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR IS REALLY DRIVING A LOW
LEVEL MIXED LAYER ALLOWING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LATE DAY COLD FRONT. THE QUESTION IS WILL
THE RECENT SNOW COVER HOLD THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SUFFICIENTLY
TO INHIBIT THESE STRONGER WINDS AND THUS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WARM TONGUE FROM CHANGING OVER PRECIPITATION TYPE TO LIQUID AND
LIFTING CEILINGS.
TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH TO THESE POSSIBILITIES AND
NOT BITE FULLY ON EITHER ONE, BUT OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE
CURRENT TAF SET DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE NEAR SUNRISE PERIOD WITH THE FREEZING RAIN
AROUND BILLINGS (KBIL), THEN THE MID DAY STRONGER GUST (30+ KT)
POTENTIAL. WILL BE LOOKING FOR SIGNS THAT POINT TO ONE MODEL
GROUPING BEING BETTER OVERNIGHT AND HOPEFULLY THE 12Z TAFS WILL
SEE MORE CERTAINTY. IN THE MEAN TIME AMENDMENTS FOR KBIL/KLVM/KSHR
SEEM LIKELY OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041 012/030 014/047 039/066 044/073 045/075 047/079
9/O 71/B 01/E 10/N 00/B 00/B 00/B
LVM 050 014/034 022/054 044/065 048/070 048/072 048/075
9/O 61/B 35/O 51/N 10/N 00/N 00/N
HDN 042 012/029 009/047 035/066 039/075 042/076 044/080
9/O 82/S 02/O 21/N 00/B 00/B 01/B
MLS 034 009/021 001/036 027/055 039/067 043/070 044/074
+/S 92/S 01/E 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 044 011/024 006/040 031/063 041/071 043/073 045/078
7/O 82/S 01/E 10/N 00/B 00/U 00/B
BHK 031 006/018 001/031 021/054 036/065 040/068 042/070
+/S 92/S 01/B 11/N 00/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 051 009/028 008/046 033/068 038/072 040/074 042/078
9/O 92/S 02/O 11/N 00/B 00/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 29>33-36-37-42-57-58-63-67-68-138-171-173-228.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 34-141-172-235.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6
AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 56-66-170.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
198.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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