304
FXUS65 KBYZ 112139
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
239 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, WITH 50 TO 65 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED; WINDY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- DRY, WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF GRASS FIRES,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- CANADIAN FRONT BRINGS MODEST COOLING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY; GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW OVER THE REGION DOWNWIND OF A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACNW AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU CENTRAL MT THAT IS PRODUCING BROKEN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE VERY HIGH-BASED VIRGA.
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS REMAIN STRONG AND WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO
50+ MPH AT LIVINGSTON AND 35-45 MPH AT BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON.
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S. IN FACT, BAKER HAS ALREADY
REACHED 51F WHICH BREAKS ITS DAILY RECORD.
MORE PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE THRU SW CANADA TONIGHT BRINGING THE
NEXT PERIOD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS AND ENHANCED GAP FLOW,
FOLLOWED BY MIXED SW-W WINDS ON MONDAY. STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS
LOOK TO PUSH THRU OUR NORTHWEST (50-55KTS AT 700MB) AND WITH
CONFIDENCE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
MONDAY ACROSS WHEATLAND AND THE MELVILLE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO A LOW LEVEL INVERSION LIMITING THE
WIND POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE BIG TIMBER AREA. BASED ON
TODAY'S OBSERVATIONS THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT MIXING IS DEEPER
THAN MODELS SUGGESTED (BIG TIMBER AIRPORT IS 48F AND GUSTING TO 35
MPH AT 115PM), BUT ENSEMBLE SIGNALS CONTINUE TO TREND POORER FOR
THIS SPECIFIC AREA. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR 60 MPH GUSTS ARE 60% AT
HARLOWTON BUT ONLY 25% AT BIG TIMBER. AGAIN, THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE
DEPENDING ON MIXING, BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN SWEET
GRASS ZONE IN A HIGH WIND WATCH AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. HOWEVER IT PANS OUT, STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TOMORROW, ALONG I-90 AND US-191.
PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES IS INCREASING
PER THE RECENT EXTENDED SPELL OF WARM, DRY AND WINDY WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS. WE ARE LOOKING AT 60F HIGHS AND
RHS NEAR 20% ON MONDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH (HIGHEST
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS). HAVE ISSUED A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THE WEST HALF OF OUR CWA TO COVER THE GRASS FIRE
POTENTIAL TOMORROW. BE CAREFUL TO NOT SPARK A FIRE. MUCH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS OF
55-65F IN THE WEST, SO THIS ENHANCED GRASS FIRE CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND TOMORROW. GENERALLY SPEAKING, LOOK FOR HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 60S THE NEXT THREE DAYS, COOLEST
IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. SOME DAILY RECORDS WILL BE
CHALLENGED.
NOT TO BE OVERLOOKED, THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE W/ A BRIEF PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP THAT WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY
OUR MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE BIGHORNS COULD SEE AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW.
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL RAMP UP IN OUR WEST AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF A STRONGER CANADIAN WAVE. GUSTS OF
40-50MPH ARE LIKELY, AND THE ODDS OF EXCEEDING 50 MPH ARE 40% AT
THE USUAL LOCATIONS.
TWO DISTINCT CANADIAN WAVES WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE DRIFTS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE WEST (I.E. NORTHERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES). WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
WE ARE LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF "COLDER" DAYS TO END THE WORK WEEK,
BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SPECIFIC TEMPS AND
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THE GEFS/CMC CONTINUE TO BE WETTER
AND COOLER THAN THE EC ENSEMBLES, BUT CLUSTER ANALYSES SHOWS THE
DRIER SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO COOL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY (PER
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION THIS IS THE COLDER OF THE TWO
DAYS), ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
OVER OUR EAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL UPSLOPE AREAS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW AT RED LODGE BUT THIS IS LESS LIKELY. POST-FRONTAL NW
WINDS WILL BE BRISK OVER SHERIDAN AND OUR EAST, WITH A ~70%
CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH. ENSEMBLES SHOW A PRETTY GOOD
SIGNAL HERE.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY AND WARMER WEEKEND BUT
THERE ARE STARTING TO BE SIGNS OF A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
PACIFIC COAST RIDGE WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR TO BACK INTO
OUR REGION, I.E. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING TO THE MIDDLE TO
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE EVEN MORE BULLISH WITH A
HEIGHT ANOMALY BUILDING OVER AK, AND LOWER HEIGHTS IN OUR REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPANSIVE HUDSON BAY LOW. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE'D
BE LOOKING AT COLDER WEATHER BY THE 3RD WEEK OF JANUARY. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE MOVE THROUGH ONE OF THE
WARMEST FIRST HALVES OF JANUARY ON RECORD.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 KTS FOR KLVM TO 30-40 KTS FOR K6S0 AND K3HT.
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
WINDS AT K6S0 AND K3HT INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS. MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS OFF THE FOOTHILLS WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN THE
30-40 KT RANGE. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/061 047/061 038/063 038/049 029/042 027/053 032/053
00/N 01/N 00/B 01/B 10/B 00/B 00/U
LVM 040/054 042/056 037/058 035/047 023/041 026/050 031/050
00/N 01/N 00/N 01/U 10/B 00/U 00/U
HDN 033/061 043/060 035/060 035/049 026/039 022/050 029/051
00/N 01/E 10/B 01/B 11/B 01/B 00/U
MLS 033/057 042/054 030/050 035/043 024/031 018/042 025/044
00/N 00/E 00/B 01/N 11/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 034/057 044/054 032/053 035/046 024/033 020/042 027/047
00/B 02/W 10/B 01/B 22/J 01/B 00/U
BHK 029/052 036/047 025/044 029/039 017/028 012/037 019/039
00/N 01/N 00/B 01/N 32/J 01/B 00/B
SHR 028/061 038/056 033/058 029/046 021/035 019/047 026/050
00/B 02/W 20/U 02/W 22/J 01/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 63-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ZONES 65-66.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 141.
WY...NONE.
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