355  
FXUS65 KBYZ 222104  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
304 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018  
   
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED
 
 
THE TRANQUIL WEATHER OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN  
SLIDE EASTWARD AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT DURING  
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO  
THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES MIGHT COOL ENOUGH  
FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN ABOVE 9000 FEET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST MT ON  
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A  
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER MT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. WINDS COULD GUST TO ABOUT 30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON EAST  
OF A MILES CITY TO SHERIDAN LINE. THEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO  
WESTERLIES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD  
OVER THE AREA. THESE WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPING ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY  
DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING. RMS  
   
LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON
 
 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CALIF COAST WILL DOMINATE THE  
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
WORK WEEK. THIS PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER W/NW FLOW ALOFT.  
MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES  
TRACKING THROUGH THAT FLOW OVER OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES  
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INCREASED WIND. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE  
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS  
TIME SEEMS TO BE FRIDAY WHEN THE BEST JET DYNAMICS WILL BE  
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, ANY REALLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN  
BLOCKED OFF IN CANADA, SO TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN  
SEASONAL INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BT  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BAKER MAY  
RECEIVE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS BY EARLY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. VERTZ  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 035/063 042/069 042/064 044/062 039/057 037/057 037/060  
00/U 11/B 11/B 24/W 22/W 11/B 11/B  
LVM 035/063 041/065 039/062 042/059 036/056 035/057 038/058  
01/B 10/B 11/B 13/W 22/W 11/N 12/W  
HDN 035/064 040/070 039/066 041/062 037/058 034/058 035/061  
00/U 11/B 11/B 35/W 22/W 11/B 11/B  
MLS 035/065 040/067 040/065 041/059 037/056 033/055 034/057  
00/U 00/B 01/B 03/W 12/W 11/B 10/B  
4BQ 035/065 041/067 040/066 041/060 037/055 033/056 034/060  
00/U 11/B 01/B 03/W 12/W 11/B 10/B  
BHK 031/061 038/066 038/064 038/058 033/054 030/052 030/054  
00/N 10/B 00/U 02/W 02/W 11/U 00/B  
SHR 036/063 039/065 039/063 039/061 036/055 033/057 034/060  
01/B 11/B 01/B 03/W 22/W 21/B 10/B  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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