794
FXUS65 KBYZ 181035
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
435 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS TODAY.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S TO UPPER 90S, WARMEST THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA ON TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST STORM PREDICITION CENTER
OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. FOR CENTRAL MONTANA, THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
INGREDIENTS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS GOOD AS RECENT DAYS, BUT A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG
WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL.
AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK REMAINS OVER ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. BECAUSE OF THIS, FLASH FLOOD
THRESHOLDS MAY BE LOWER SO REMAIN VIGILANT IF YOU HAVE RECREATION
PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
A WEAK UPPER LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FLATTENS
THE RIDGING EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A BACKDOOR FRONT FOR MONDAY.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THESE DAYS.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN A RETURN OF RIDGING TO THE REGION, AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90S MOST DAYS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PM
AVIATION
1130Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH 15Z.
LOCAL MODERATE RAIN ASSOCAITGED WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO UNDER 4 MILES AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TODAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY AFTER 21Z WITH ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST SECTION OF MONTANA. KSHR MOST
LIKELY IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC STRONG WIND
GUSTS. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 068/097 066/091 065/091 066/093 067/093 067/094
1/U 22/T 20/U 11/B 11/B 33/T 32/T
LVM 094 057/095 057/092 056/090 058/092 057/089 057/091
1/U 22/T 00/U 11/B 34/T 55/T 44/T
HDN 096 065/097 064/092 062/092 064/094 064/094 064/095
2/B 11/U 30/U 10/B 11/B 23/T 31/U
MLS 097 068/098 066/091 062/088 065/094 066/094 067/097
3/T 10/U 20/U 11/B 11/B 12/W 11/U
4BQ 097 068/098 067/091 062/088 065/092 065/092 066/093
3/T 20/U 30/U 10/B 21/B 22/W 22/T
BHK 093 065/098 062/090 057/086 059/091 060/091 062/095
3/T 21/U 20/N 00/B 21/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 092 062/094 061/092 058/091 060/091 060/090 059/089
3/T 32/T 20/U 02/T 24/T 46/T 44/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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