659
FXUS65 KBYZ 110726
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
126 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND; WARMEST TODAY (HIGHS IN 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES).
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING; A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- ACTIVE WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM (POTENTIALLY COOLER) LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CURRENT MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH A LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN US. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO BE STREAMED INTO THE AREA, INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND DRY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MT MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH. WITH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING LESS THAN
30 KTS OF SHEAR AND LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB SEVERE AND ISOLATED IN NATURE. WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT INTO THE LATE
EVENING, MODELS ARE KEEPING SOME INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR.
THIS LEADS TO ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE POTENTIAL
STORMS OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 40-50 MPH. INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-60%). THE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER
INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 40-60% FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND
NORTHERN WY, 20-30% CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST MT AND A 60-80% FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 8,000 FT, SO
THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR RAIN ON SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ENSEMBLES THEN SHOW A LITTLE BREAK WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING
IN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS, BUT IS THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, COOLING TO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. TS
AVIATION
IN GENERAL, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT
ALL TERMINALS, AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WITH THE CONVECTION, THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD
OUT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL OCCUR WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 046/068 042/064 042/063 042/064 035/047 027/048
2/B 34/W 66/W 53/W 13/W 67/W 43/J
LVM 070 039/064 037/057 035/058 036/056 032/044 022/044
3/W 37/T 57/W 63/W 15/W 77/J 43/J
HDN 080 045/070 040/066 040/064 039/066 034/050 025/049
2/B 53/W 77/W 64/W 13/W 67/W 53/J
MLS 081 048/068 043/065 041/063 039/065 035/051 024/044
1/U 61/U 56/W 53/W 11/B 44/W 32/J
4BQ 080 047/069 042/067 041/061 039/066 036/055 024/044
1/B 50/U 35/W 44/W 11/U 34/W 43/J
BHK 078 045/068 040/064 039/061 037/065 034/053 022/041
1/U 41/U 45/W 44/W 11/B 33/W 32/J
SHR 076 039/067 037/062 033/058 033/064 032/050 022/044
2/B 52/W 47/T 55/W 11/B 47/W 54/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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