249
FXUS65 KBYZ 010839
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
139 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LOOK TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS FROM LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GUSTY WINDS (50+ MPH) EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
(LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER, HARLOWTON) ONCE AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(10-30%) TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE INCREASE TONIGHT IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL NORTH/EAST WINDS
CONTINUING TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER WEST AS MORE ENERGY SLIDES OVER
THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A SURGE OF MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MIXING IN. SHALLOW NATURE OF
THE COLD AIR IS NOT GOING TO INTERRUPT THE DOWNSLOPE COMPLETELY
WHICH IS WHY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL SEE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7KFT).
FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE INCREASE IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST A BIT TO THE EAST PUTTING THE
AREA IN MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
BETTER ACCESS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE AREA. STILL, DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE WORKING TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER BEING
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.
COOLER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
SAG SOUTHWEST INTO SE MONTANA TODAY, BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG WITH IT, LASTING INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
FURTHER INHIBIT WARMING OVER THESE AREAS AND FORECAST IS A FEW
DEGREES UNDER NBM GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, CLOSE TO THE
CONSSHORT ENSEMBLE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WIND
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS FROM BILLINGS WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS, BUT AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL SEE LOW CHANCES FOR 50+ MPH
GUSTS AS RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES TAKE HOLD EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. STRONGER 700MB WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A PERIOD
AND MAY SEE AFTERNOON MIX DOWN WINDS GET GUSTY ALONG THE US-191
CORRIDOR (HARLOWTON TO BIG TIMBER FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT THIS SHOULD
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF POTENTIAL GUSTINESS. BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE 700MB WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL CREATE MORE FAVORABLE
AND LONGER LASTING CONDITIONS FOR GAP WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
VALLEYS. INCREASED WINDS ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE TO GET MORE IN LINE
WITH LOCAL GAP WIND PROJECTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOASTY (45-55 DEG) ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS, DIMINISHING INTO THE 30S OVER SE MONTANA INTO
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER (40S
TRENDING INTO THE 30S) MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10DAYS.
CHAMBERS
AVIATION
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS,
INCLUDING KLVM, THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LOW RISK (25%) OF
FOG/STRATUS SPREADING INTO FALLON AND CUSTER COUNTIES THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT
TIME AT KMLS & KBHK, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY FOG/STRATUS BY SUNRISE. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048 033/052 035/054 036/056 034/053 032/051 032/049
0/B 21/E 00/B 00/B 01/B 11/N 01/N
LVM 050 036/050 036/053 036/052 035/050 031/046 030/045
1/N 42/R 00/N 11/N 12/R 21/N 11/N
HDN 045 027/048 028/051 030/055 030/053 030/050 027/048
0/B 11/E 00/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 036 021/037 025/041 027/051 030/050 028/046 027/045
0/B 00/E 00/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B
4BQ 045 028/045 029/050 031/054 031/053 031/048 027/047
0/B 00/E 00/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 00/B
BHK 034 019/034 022/039 024/050 027/050 026/043 023/042
0/B 00/E 00/B 00/B 00/B 11/N 10/B
SHR 048 029/047 028/052 030/054 030/053 027/048 024/047
0/B 11/E 00/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 10/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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