719
FXUS65 KBYZ 131031
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
331 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST
OF BILLINGS THIS MORNING; GUSTS 40 TO 60 MPH.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
TODAY; TRACE TO 0.20 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS TODAY MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL AND RECREATION; 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
- WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY; 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF 50+ MPH WINDS.
- MOSTLY DRY, WINDY, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES
AT TIMES THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A DECREASE IN THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS AND THE FORMATION OF A WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION, THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FINAL PUSH OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS OF 3AM MST,
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STRONGER MID- LEVEL WINDS HAVE ENTERED
WESTERN MONTANA, SO THEY SHOULD BE MOVING OVER OUR AREA AROUND
THE TIME THE INVERSION BREAKS MID- MORNING. WITH THIS, THE RISK OF
STRONG WINDS, GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, REMAINS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST
OF BILLINGS THIS MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH MID-DAY, THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS WILL
COME TO AN END. THEREFORE, THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WHEATLAND,
GOLDEN VALLEY, NORTHERN SWEET GRASS, AND NORTHERN STILLWATER
COUNTIES HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 11AM MST THIS MORNING. THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE AREA, WHICH ALSO EXPIRES AT
11AM MST THIS MORNING, REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WELL. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA, GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40S (MPH) ARE FORECAST
TODAY, STRONGEST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WHERE THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A 50 MPH WIND
GUST. BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE AREA, GIVING US A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WIND.
ALONG WITH THE WIND, THE SHORTWAVE TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING (30 TO
65 PERCENT CHANCE). WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S TO LOWER 60S, ALL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL FALL AS RAIN. WITH THIS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM A
TRACE TO 0.20 INCHES ARE FORECAST. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7,500
FEET, SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS,
AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP A BIT WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES FORECAST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL OR RECREATION PLANS IN THE
BIGHORNS TODAY, PREPARE FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
60S. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO
START, A BIT OF A KLONDIKE CHINOOK PATTERN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO SET UP AND BRING GUSTY WINDS BACK TO THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY,
THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING A 50 MPH WIND GUST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS IS 50 PERCENT.
ON THURSDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS TWO COLD FRONTS DROP THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING WHERE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF
SEEING 50 MPH WIND GUSTS (UP TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE). THE FIRST
FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WILL
INCREASE WINDS, BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE WITH THE SECOND
FRONT LATE THURSDAY. WITH THIS, THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY
PASS OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY, SO THIS COULD HELP
LIMIT THE HIGH END POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS. ALONG WITH THE WIND,
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT, AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES, TO PROMOTE LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE
MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE, ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, BLOWING SNOW
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO
DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, LEAVING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO PREVAIL, BUT OCCASIONAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TO THE EAST
MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. ARENDS
AVIATION
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF KBIL, INCLUDING KLVM,
K6S0, AND K3HT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE WEST WITH A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT
AND NORTHERN WY. GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S KNOTS, ALONG WITH RAIN
ARE FORECAST AS WELL, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND
KMLS, KBHK, KSHR, AND K97M. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, INTO THE
10-25 KNOT RANGE. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 037/061 039/054 028/043 027/051 029/053 029/051
2/W 10/U 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
LVM 055 037/057 034/052 024/043 027/051 030/051 030/051
2/W 10/N 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 060 033/060 034/051 026/041 023/048 023/052 024/049
4/W 10/U 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
MLS 053 030/052 034/044 024/033 019/036 019/042 022/041
3/W 00/B 00/N 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/B
4BQ 053 032/054 036/046 025/034 021/038 022/045 023/045
6/W 10/B 00/N 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U
BHK 047 027/045 029/041 017/028 011/031 014/036 016/037
5/W 00/B 00/N 10/N 00/B 00/N 00/B
SHR 055 031/057 032/051 022/037 019/045 022/051 024/049
5/W 30/U 00/N 00/N 00/B 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 34-42-63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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