139
FXUS65 KBYZ 111214
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
514 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT; 1-4" EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND COOKE CITY.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY THE WEEKEND;
30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON.
- BECOMING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
QUICK UPDATE FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS WITH MOISTURE MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR THE COLD
START TO THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
WE REMAIN UNDER DRY/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WITH A WEAK LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROF AND THUS LIGHT WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT
INDICATE FOG YET BUT THIS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY (20% CHANCE) THRU
15Z THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER VALLEY
WHERE AMPLE SNOW COVER EXISTS. 10PM TEMPS HAD ALREADY FALLEN TO
THE TEENS ACROSS WHEATLAND COUNTY, AND EVEN AS LOW AS 11F AT
TWODOT. NOT SURE IF A LIGHT WEST WIND WILL PREVENT FOG HERE, AND
HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW NOTHING, BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG GOING THRU 15Z. CONFIDENCE IN VALLEY FOG IS EVEN LOWER FURTHER
EAST AS THE AIR MASS IS DRY. NONETHELESS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH TEMPS GETTING A BIT WARMER.
LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 40S MOST PLACES BUT TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD IN
THE 30S FROM HARLOWTON AND MELVILLE TO RYEGATE (AGAIN PER THE
RESIDUAL SNOW COVER). SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
SHOULD BRING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS TODAY &
TONIGHT WITH A 1-4" ACCUMULATION ALONG SW ASPECTS (I.E. MOUNTAINS
NEAR COOKE CITY). MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A
COMPETING WAVE DROPPING OUT OF BC/AB, SO THERE DOESN'T NOT APPEAR
TO BE A RISK OF OVERACHIEVING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, OR ANY PRECIP IN
GENERAL OFF THE FOOTHILLS.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER YET, UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S MOST PLACES, WITH A BIT MORE DOWNSLOPE WIND. WOULD EXPECT
WHEATLAND COUNTY SNOW COVER TO BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
SO ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS WILL BE ELIMINATED. WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS SHOULD INCREASE SOME THIS WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. LOCAL GUIDANCE, GRADIENT AND MID LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST
GUSTS REMAINING UNDERNEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE AND IS THUS SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED. FOR NOW, THERE IS A
30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT THE GAP LOCATIONS
(LIVINGSTON & NYE). TO GO ALONG WITH THE WIND WILL BE CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH 50S LIKELY TO BECOME MORE COMMON. SW
MOUNTAINS MAY START TO PICK UP SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HEIGHT FALLS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A DEEPENED PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY, BUT COOLER AND MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS IN STORE BEGINNING BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES WITH
DETAILS, BUT LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF WE TAP INTO A BIT OF
CANADIAN COLD ADVECTION, SOME LOWER ELEVATION SNOW IS A
POSSIBILITY AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
NOTE: FORECAST FOR DAYS 4-7 IS CREATED AUTOMATICALLY, WITH LITTLE
OR NO HUMAN INTERVENTION. PLEASE USE WITH CAUTION.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY, WILL
PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 026/053 027/054 029/053 032/054 031/056 031/049
0/B 10/U 00/U 00/E 11/E 11/B 23/W
LVM 046 027/051 027/049 029/049 032/051 032/051 031/045
2/B 10/U 00/B 01/B 11/E 22/W 34/J
HDN 046 022/054 024/056 025/055 029/056 029/058 030/051
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/B 24/W
MLS 046 022/048 024/050 026/051 027/052 028/053 029/048
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 24/W
4BQ 048 024/052 026/053 026/054 029/054 029/059 033/052
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 13/W
BHK 047 022/048 024/049 025/050 026/050 026/052 028/044
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 24/W
SHR 047 023/052 022/052 023/052 026/054 027/057 028/050
1/B 10/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/U 24/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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