215
FXUS65 KBYZ 190853
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS OF 45-65 MPH EXPECTED FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON
MONDAY. GUSTS 30-50 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS, 50+ MPH IN THE EAST.
- CONDITIONS TURN WARMER AND DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER MONTANA WITH INCREASING 700
MB WINDS TO THE WEST. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH, ALONG WITH THE CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE PARADISE VALLEY, WILL ALLOW FOR A GAP WIND PATTERN FOR
THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (80%) FOR
WIND GUSTS TO REACH 50 MPH, WITH ABOUT A 60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
60 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS (GUSTS 30-40 MPH) AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL ALSO CHANGE THE
GRADIENT INTO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED GRADIENT, SHIFTING THE
WIND POTENTIAL TO THE HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER AREAS. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE TIMING FOR THE POTENTIALLY STRONGER WINDS
ALSO ALIGNS WITH WHEN LIFT IS PRESENT, CAUSING A LEAN TOWARDS
GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN MT AS THE 700
MB JET SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT A 60%
CHANCE FOR HITTING 50 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ABOUT
A 30% CHANCE FOR 60 MPH.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS (UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS) WITH ABOUT 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW FORECASTED FOR THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN THE BIGHORNS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
EVENING, SOME LINGERING ENERGY ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS (RAIN/SNOW MIX) OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS MONDAY
MORNING.
AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MT TUESDAY, ANOTHER
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH 700 MB WINDS BEING MORE WEST/NORTHWEST, THIS
PATTERN WOULD MORE SO FAVOR BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON AREAS.
CURRENTLY, THERE EXISTS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR BIG TIMBER HITTING
50 MPH WITH ABOUT A 30% CHANCE FOR HARLOWTON. BY MID WEEK, THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO RIDGING, ALLOWING
FOR WARMER AND DRYER CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY, TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWEST US WILL TRANSITION THE REGION INTO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY TO 10-40%
AS TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TODAY, 50S MONDAY, WARMING
BACK ON THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AROUND 21Z A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES AND PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY ABOUT 03Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND FOR A FEW HOURS POST FRONTAL, WITH AREAS OF
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS NEAR PRECIPITATION AREAS. EXPECT
PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION POST FRONTAL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT.
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY,
BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN PLACES AND MORE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50KTS WILL BE COMMON FROM
BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS,INCLUDING KLVM/K6S0/K3HT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 40KT RANGE WILL BE COMMON OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST, LASTING WELL INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AND AREAS OF ENHANCED TURBULENCE
CAN BE EXPECTED LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. CHAMBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 040/053 034/062 034/060 038/063 038/064 044/063
5/W 42/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B
LVM 061 031/050 029/060 030/063 034/061 033/063 038/059
9/W 62/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 13/W
HDN 065 037/053 029/061 030/062 032/061 033/064 038/064
5/W 75/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B
MLS 064 039/051 030/057 031/059 034/061 034/064 038/065
2/W 62/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
4BQ 067 039/050 031/057 032/059 034/060 035/064 039/067
1/B 82/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B
BHK 064 035/049 026/055 028/058 031/060 032/063 037/066
0/B 71/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 067 033/051 025/060 029/062 031/061 032/064 036/065
2/B 84/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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