340
FXUS65 KBYZ 102038
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
138 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
- MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM, DRY AND WINDY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS;
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK; MODEST COOLING
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE, LATEST
ANALYSIS INDICATES A IDA-LWT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 18.5MB AT 20Z.
THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS YIELDING
HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON. COURTESY OF PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING THRU BC/AB, THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND THE BACKING
MID LEVEL WINDS (COUPLED WITH THE PERSISTENT TIGHT GRADIENT)
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING GUSTS AT THE GAP LOCATIONS (LIVINGSTON
& NYE). ALREADY SEEING GUSTS IN THE LOWER 40S AT LIVINGSTON AND
THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50-60 MPH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE,
SWEET GRASS AND WHEATLAND SHOULD SEE NEAR 50 MPH GUSTS. A STRONGER
ZONAL WAVE AND FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL ELEVATE
WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THIS LOOKS LIKE THE WINDIEST
TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN. EC ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW A IDA-
LWT GRADIENT NEAR 23MB, WHILE 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO ~50KTS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AT THE GAP LOCATIONS,
WHILE INTO MONDAY WITH MIXING EXPECT SIMILAR GUSTS ALONG US-191.
THE PROBABILITY OF 60+ MPH GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
DURING THIS TIME IS 40-60%. PLAN YOUR TRAVEL ACCORDINGLY. WITH
MIXING, 30-50 MPH GUSTS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY AND THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS ARE SEEING LOWER 50S TODAY. MORE WILL
SEE 50S TOMORROW. MONDAY IS LOOKING WARMER YET WITH MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS. THE WEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 60F TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND A FEW DAILY
RECORDS SHOULD BE CHALLENGED. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INCREASE
OF PRE-FRONTAL WINDS FOR THE FOOTHILLS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A SIDE NOTE, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS W/ A WEAK SHORTWAVE TUESDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE COMPLETELY
INSIGNIFICANT IF IT DOES HAPPEN.
WE'VE SEEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM & DRY WEATHER. AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 60F AND CONTINUED
WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS, THE RISK OF LOWER ELEVATION GRASS FIRES IS
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST). PLEASE BE AWARE OF YOUR
LOCAL CONDITIONS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO BURN, AND TAKE CARE NOT TO
ACCIDENTLY SPARK A FIRE, BECAUSE GRASS FIRE POTENTIAL IS
DEFINITELY HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE IN JANUARY.
WE WILL SEE SOME CHANGES OVER THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW THE STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE TO RETROGRADE A BIT WEST OF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR CANADIAN SHORTWAVES TO
POSSIBLY ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS (INITIAL
COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY). IT CONFIDENTLY WILL TURN
COOLER AFTER WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD
CONCERNING SPECIFIC TEMPS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GEFS/CMC
CONTINUE TO BE COOLER/WETTER THAN THE EC ENSEMBLES, BUT NOT IN AN
EXTREME SENSE. IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
FOR NOW, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S BY
FRIDAY (CLOSER TO NORMAL?), WITH A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHERN UPSLOPE AREAS.
HOWEVER THURSDAY/FRIDAY PAN OUT, THERE IS CONFIDENCE FOR A
REBUILDING OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. IF THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING COLDER & SNOWIER IT WON'T BE UNTIL EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS A POTENTIALLY DEEPER TROF DROPS THRU WESTERN
CANADA, BUT THIS IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 40S MPH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SUCH
AS KLVM,K6S0, AND K3HT THROUGH AROUND 03Z SUNDAY. WINDS DECREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN IN THE 30S MPH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/052 039/060 046/061 041/062 039/051 029/041 026/050
00/B 00/N 01/N 00/B 01/U 10/B 00/B
LVM 036/050 040/056 041/057 037/059 034/050 024/040 025/049
00/N 00/N 01/N 00/U 01/U 10/B 00/U
HDN 031/054 031/060 043/060 037/061 036/050 025/038 022/049
00/B 00/N 01/E 10/B 01/U 11/B 11/B
MLS 029/050 033/056 041/055 032/054 036/045 021/031 017/041
00/U 00/N 01/E 00/B 00/N 11/B 00/B
4BQ 032/052 032/057 042/055 035/057 037/048 023/033 019/042
00/U 00/B 01/E 10/B 01/B 22/J 10/B
BHK 024/047 029/053 036/049 027/048 030/041 017/029 012/037
00/U 00/N 01/N 00/B 01/N 22/J 10/B
SHR 026/055 028/060 036/059 033/058 032/048 020/034 016/046
00/U 00/B 01/N 10/B 02/W 22/J 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
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