680
FXUS65 KBYZ 242013
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
213 PM MDT SAT MAY 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC SCATTERED SHOWERS, SOME LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS, AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MEMORIAL DAY FORECAST: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS; HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S (COOLEST ALONG
MT/DK BORDER).
- TEMPS PUSHING 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (70%)
WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS IN THE BEARTOOTH/BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS IN BIGHORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. OTHER LOCATIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE A 30% CHANCE. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 KTS HELPING TO LIMIT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NBM IS
GIVING LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHERN ROSEBUD AND BIGHORN COUNTIES TO
SHERIDAN COUNTY A 40-60% CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN 0.25
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST IN THE DAKOTAS WILL KEEP A
MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND LEADING TO CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE WITH 20-30% CHANCES, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST
SOILS ACROSS THE REGION, LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS, DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 C, AND LIGHT WINDS FOR LOW LYING
AREAS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE PATCHY FOG.
LOCATIONS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TOO STRONG
OF WINDS TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE HIGH 60S F TO LOW
70S F FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
F FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER. TORGERSON
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A 500 MB TROUGH WILL SET UP TO OUR EAST AND
REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BLOCK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND CREATE RIDGING OVER MONTANA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE TO OUR
NORTH IN CANADA BUT TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES INCREASING
FROM THE LOW 70S F MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INTO THE HIGH 70S AND
80S F STARTING THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
THINGS ACTIVE WITH 20-40% PRECIPITATION CHANCES DAILY. TORGERSON
AVIATION
THE MAIN HAZARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE PATCHY FOG FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES
THE TAF SITES OF KBIL, KLVM, AND KSHR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER
03Z TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (20-40%) FROM KBIL AND AREAS TO THE EAST. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/071 046/075 049/073 051/074 049/077 052/079 053/082
22/W 01/U 13/T 22/W 01/U 13/T 21/U
LVM 042/070 043/075 049/072 047/073 046/076 049/076 050/079
20/U 02/T 36/T 32/W 12/T 23/T 21/U
HDN 045/071 047/074 047/074 049/074 047/080 050/080 051/083
33/T 12/W 13/W 22/W 11/U 12/T 21/U
MLS 047/069 049/070 047/072 047/073 047/078 050/081 053/084
32/W 12/W 22/W 22/W 11/U 11/U 11/U
4BQ 047/064 047/064 046/069 046/069 046/075 049/078 052/080
23/W 33/W 22/W 22/W 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 042/064 044/064 042/065 041/067 042/071 045/076 049/080
21/B 23/W 32/W 22/W 11/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 040/065 041/069 043/071 046/069 043/074 047/076 049/077
35/T 24/T 14/T 34/T 12/T 13/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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