240
FXUS65 KBYZ 271659
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
959 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE IMPACTED BY POOR VISIBILITY AND
SLICK ROADS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
- SNOW CONTINUES IN THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- SUBZERO WIND CHILLS IN EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH PERIODS OF
STRONG GUSTY WIND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
UPDATE
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS OF 0930, THE
FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH BILLINGS, BUT HAS YET TO REACH
THE MONTANA- WYOMING STATELINE. THEREFORE, THE THREAT OF STRONG,
ERRATIC WINDS FROM MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES, REMAINS UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR 2. BEHIND THE FRONT, SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN, CREATING DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SINK SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS, AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. ARENDS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WIND. VERY DYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/LOW LEVEL FLOW DIRECTLY CROSS
BARRIER (PERPENDICULAR TO MTNS) HAS RESULTED IN SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTION ALONG EAST SLOPES OF BIG HORNS AND BEARTOOTHS LAST
EVENING, WITH GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE. CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT OF THIS PRIOR TO THE APPROACHING
CANADIAN FRONT. SUDDEN STRONG WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH MAY OCCUR
ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG
HORNS. THIS INCLUDES THE RED LODGE AND SHERIDAN, WY VICINITIES
FROM 4 AM THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM. WIND IN THE USUAL WIND PRONE GAPS
LIVINGSTON/NYE) AND ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON COULD SEE GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS IS DISRUPTED WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
CANADIAN FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BILLINGS BETWEEN 8-11 AM AND
SOUTH THROUGH SHERIDAN AROUND MIDDAY. A DECENT BRIEF PERIOD OF
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY INTENSE FOR A SHORT TIME, AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE ALONG NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CRASH
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS BY
EVENING. WET OR SLUSHY ROADS COULD THUS TURN SLICK LATE TODAY WITH
PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR US-212 FROM LAUREL TO RED LODGE, AND I-90
FROM HARDIN TO SHERIDAN. ALTHOUGH PROGGS ARE TRENDING DOWN ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WE WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE THE BIG HORNS REGION THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS. MOST OF THE FORCING AND PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING. OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MORE THAN QUICK HALF INCH OF
SNOWFALL. LOOK FOR A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY EVENING AS NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH ARE COMMON ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS WILL
PERSIST AND PRODUCE LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE COOKE CITY ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. RECREATION IN THE BACKCOUNTRY MAY BE DIFFICULT AND
AVALANCHE DANGER MAY INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY.
MUCH LESS SNOWFALL IS FORECAST ON NORTH AND EAST FACING ASPECTS,
INCLUDING RED LODGE.
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE WILL ISSUE
A COLD ADVISORY FOR FALLON COUNTY FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SUNDAY. THOSE GOING OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE
COLD AND LIMIT EXPOSURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S WEST TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG THE MT/DAKOTA BORDER AREA.
CENTRAL AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS PATTERN (KLONDIKE CHINOOK) WILL PUSH THE
COLD AIR OUT WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING GETTING TEMPS BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. THAT SAID, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AROUND MIDWEEK, WHICH IF IT OCCURS WOULD DROP TEMPS WELL BELOW OUR
CURRENT FORECASTS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES. BT
AVIATION
A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SNOW IS ALSO FILLING IN THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS. PERIODIC REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE SNOW. EXPECT PERIODIC MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE SNOW
LOOKS TO COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA, BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL
REMAIN OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 008/028 015/040 028/047 029/044 021/043 028/049
4/J 20/U 00/B 00/E 01/B 10/B 01/E
LVM 038 008/028 016/040 026/045 028/047 029/051 033/050
4/J 20/U 00/U 00/E 01/B 00/B 12/W
HDN 041 004/021 008/039 024/045 023/039 015/040 022/047
8/J 30/U 00/B 00/E 02/W 10/B 01/E
MLS 038 001/012 003/034 023/041 018/030 011/031 018/039
2/J 10/B 00/B 00/B 12/J 10/B 01/E
4BQ 047 004/015 005/037 025/044 024/038 015/038 023/044
3/J 30/B 00/U 00/E 12/J 10/B 01/B
BHK 043 904/005 904/031 018/041 016/029 008/028 012/038
3/J 20/N 00/B 00/B 23/J 10/B 11/E
SHR 046 001/023 007/040 021/046 024/046 019/046 026/049
8/J 50/U 00/U 00/E 01/B 00/B 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 33.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 56-66-138-169.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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