211
FXUS65 KBYZ 192055
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
155 PM MST WED FEB 19 2020
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXISTING SNOW
COVER, WHICH IS NOT UNIFORM, WILL HAVE ITS USUAL EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
TOMORROW, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GETTING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER.
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS WIND. LEE TROF IS ALREADY FORMING, AND
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT COURTESY OF A 1040+
MB HIGH OVER EASTERN ID AND WESTERN WY. INITIALLY, MODEST AND
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT FAVOR THE GAP AREAS...SO PLACES
LIKE BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON SHOULD BE WINDIER THAN LIVINGSTON
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. BACKING AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
ATTENTION TO THE GAP AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHEN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KTS BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AND
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.
SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD.
JKL
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DISRUPT THINGS SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE WESTERN GAP AREAS FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NYE WILL SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY TO
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL DISRUPT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ALLOWING THE STRONG GAP WINDS TO BACK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN TOUCH 50
DEGREES.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DETAILS HOWEVER,
STILL REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. A TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH EAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AN ASSOCIATED OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHILE
OTHERS SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER LOW. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS
THEN PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LEAD TO
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR OR TRAVEL PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK, PLEASE KEEP CLOSE TABS ON
THE FORECAST. STP
AVIATION
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. LOOK FOR 25-40 KT GUSTS AT KLVM, K6S0 AND KHWQ LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 016/035 021/043 026/048 026/045 028/040 022/032 017/032
00/N 00/N 00/N 01/B 45/O 54/S 21/B
LVM 015/039 023/045 024/048 025/045 027/035 020/030 015/035
00/N 00/N 00/N 01/B 76/S 53/S 11/B
HDN 008/039 015/047 021/051 023/045 026/040 020/032 014/033
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 46/O 65/S 31/B
MLS 007/039 017/046 024/050 023/042 024/037 017/028 009/027
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 45/O 54/S 21/B
4BQ 005/038 013/048 020/051 022/043 024/038 017/028 010/027
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 36/O 55/S 21/B
BHK 003/035 014/041 019/045 018/038 020/034 013/024 005/023
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 35/S 54/S 21/B
SHR 903/037 010/045 019/047 019/041 021/036 016/027 009/029
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 47/S 66/S 31/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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