086
FXUS65 KBYZ 112113
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- DANGEROUSLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
WINDS MAY BE STRONGER THAN LAST SUNDAY'S EVENT. CROSSWINDS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS/FENCES AND TREES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH POWER
OUTAGES.
- AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.
- SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY...
LATEST TRENDS...MODELS ARE PICKING UP MORE ON ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
OVERRUNING COLD AIR MASS IN EAST CENTRAL MONTANA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE JUMPED TO AROUND
17 INCHES LOCALLY OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND I-94. MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS ALSO BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST BAROCLINIC BAND FROM AROUND THE SNOWIES EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST. THUS, WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS THIS
AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW FAR WEST AND HOW DEEP
THE COLD AIR GETS. THIS AFFECTS THE FOOTHILLS FROM LIVINGSTON TO
RED LODGE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THERE. IF MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST DEEPER COLD AIR GETTING INTO THE FOOTHILLS, THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR THE THESE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND SHIFTS AND WANDERS A BIT, HEAVY SNOWFALL PLACEMENT WILL
CHANGE. THIS IS AN EXTENDED EVENT SO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
MAY SHIFT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
WIND HIGHLIGHTS...HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNINGS NOW. LIVINGSTON TO NYE STARTS LATE TODAY AS WINDS
PICK UP IN FOOTHILLS AND GAP LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT SPREADING TO OTHER FOOTHILLS AND
NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG
TIMBER TO JUDITH GAP. WE HAVE THE WARNINGS STARTING FOR RED LODGE
AND SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO A SLIGHT POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY, BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS IS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE CWA STARTS AT
6 AM THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING OCCURRING AS 700MB JET
STREAK CROSSES REGION TOMORROW. MANY LOCATIONS MIX DOWN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. THERE IS INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS AS SOME
SHOWERS DROP FROM THE NORTH AT MIDDAY. THESE COULD MIX DOWN SOME
WIND OVER EASTERN PLAINS, BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND
THIS SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR IN AFTERNOON. WE KEPT END TIMES
SIMPLE AT 9 PM FOR ALL ZONES...BUT SUSPECT THE WINDS WILL HAVE
DIED DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT BY 6 PM FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE CHANCE OF 70 MPH GUSTS RANGES FROM 40% IN EAST TO 100% IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILL PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS HARLOWTON, BIG
TIMBER AND LIVINGSTON. THIS SET UP HAS SIMILARITIES TO PREVIOUS
HIGH WIND EPISODES THIS WINTER, WHERE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BIG TIMBER
HAD PEAK GUSTS OVER 85 MPH. YES, THIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN, BUT
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES LIKE CLOUD COVER THAT COULD MITIGATE
THE STRONGER WINDS TO SOME DEGREE. THAT SAID, MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL
HIT MOST AREAS WITH AT LEAST 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR AT LEAST
A FEW HOURS...WITH GUSTS OVER 80 MPH POSSIBLE. LOCAL REPORTS OF
PEAK WINDS HITTING 80 TO 90 MPH WILL NOT SURPRISE US. IMPACTS
INCLUDE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, FENCES AND TREES. POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
DESPITE RECENT LIGHT PRECIP, ANY SPARKS TO DRY GRASSES COULD
SPREAD FIRE QUITE RAPIDLY. PLEASE AVOID ACTIVITY THAT CAUSE
SPARKS!
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...AS NOTED ABOVE, WE HAVE ISSUED WINTER
STORM WATCHES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL ZONES FROM THE
BELTS/SNOWIES SOUTHEASTWARD. OTHER AREAS WILL LIKELY GET DECENT
SNOWFALL AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. THIS IS GOING TO BE A STEADY SNOWFALL IN MANY AREAS
THAT PILES UP OVER 48 HOURS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SE MT AND
LIVINGSTON AND THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS, BUT FOR NOW WE EXPECT
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. LIVINGSTON IS REALLY
TOUGH CALL...AS MODELS WANT TO KEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPS THERE LIMITING SNOWFALL A GREAT DEAL, BUT IF COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND PUSHES INTO PARK COUNTY, LIVINGSTON COULD SEE A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS WELL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SEE A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM TROUGH TO RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHERE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MAY INITIATE
DECENT FORCING OVER OUR REGION LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOCALLY AND
IMPACT MONDAY MORNINGS COMMUTE. BUT THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THIS LOOKS SHORT LIVED...AS STRONG RIDGING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK COULD PUSH HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS
60S TO LOWER 70S) AND MAKE QUICK WORK OF ANY SNOWFALL WE GET THIS
WEEKEND. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES, BUT LOOK FOR MUDDY
FIELDS AND DECREASED FIRE CONCERNS DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGE. BT
AVIATION
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN GAP AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S AND
40S MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS WILL BECOME AN ISSUE OVER
THE PLAINS TONIGHT STARTING AROUND 03Z. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE
KBIL, KMLS, KBHK, AND KSHR. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
WITH WIDESPREAD MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-65 KT RANGE. THESE
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS FIRST BEFORE SPREADING
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 15Z. MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE
OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038/060 030/036 029/037 012/032 018/047 038/062 041/073
12/R 99/S 9+/S 82/J 34/W 31/E 00/B
LVM 038/054 037/043 036/044 015/036 025/052 044/064 044/070
22/O 79/O 9+/O 83/J 55/W 31/N 00/N
HDN 035/063 028/037 026/038 011/032 015/047 035/064 035/075
12/R 99/S 9+/O 93/J 34/W 31/E 00/B
MLS 032/054 025/038 024/035 010/026 011/039 030/058 036/070
35/O 46/S 69/S 71/E 13/J 32/W 00/B
4BQ 029/059 027/038 026/039 013/028 011/041 031/059 038/073
13/O 88/S 79/O 82/J 13/J 31/B 00/U
BHK 028/050 020/037 020/032 009/023 006/035 022/053 034/066
26/O 35/S 48/S 82/J 12/J 32/W 00/U
SHR 025/058 023/037 023/042 009/029 012/046 032/062 037/073
03/R 98/S 89/O 93/J 24/W 31/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
29>31-34-36-42-57-58-63-138-141-171>173-228-235.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES
34-40-42-63>68-141-172-228.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 56-171.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
67.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 68.
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 198-199.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONES 198-199.
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