451
FXUS65 KBYZ 070732
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1232 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUSTS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE 35 TO 55 MPH RANGE, STRONGEST ON
SUNDAY.
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60-75 MPH) FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF BILLINGS. STRONGEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
- LOCALLY ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. GREATEST CONCERNS IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MINIMAL PRECIP THIS WEEK.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE
PERIODS OF LOWER ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO TIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. LOOKING AT TODAY (SATURDAY), 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50 KTS, CREATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE FOR BIG TIMBER UP THROUGH JUDITH GAP
GIVEN THE LACK OF INVERSIONS SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. AS FOR THE
LIVINGSTON TO NYE AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT IN
PLACE (15-18 MB), GRADIENT AND 700 MB WIND ORIENTATION DOESN'T
ALIGN PERFECTLY. CURRENTLY THERE IS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE FOR AREAS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. MOVING INTO SUNDAY, 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 55-70 KTS WITH LEESIDE TROUGHING ALSO STRENGTHENING OVER
THE FOOTHILLS. FOR THIS TIME FRAME, PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 70 MPH INCREASE TO 50-60%. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-90 FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND
ALONG HIGHWAY 191 FROM BIG TIMBER TO JUDITH GAP. CONSIDER
ALTERNATE TRAVEL POSSIBILITIES AHEAD OF TRAVEL. WITH REGARDS TO
POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700 MB WIND DIRECTION, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY
ABOUT A 40% CHANCE FOR THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS TO GET GUSTS OF 60
MPH SUNDAY, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH
WILL BE COMMON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS 35-55 MPH FOR SUNDAY. HIGH WIND
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS, AND HAVE ADDED IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS WELL. BE CAREFUL TO NOT CAUSE A
SPARK OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE TO NO PRECIP HAS
RECENTLY FALLEN IN YOUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE TO SPREAD
ACROSS DRY GRASSES WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THIS TIME.
SUNDAY EVENING, ENSEMBLES BRING A SYSTEM IN FROM THE NORTH WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WINDS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES
(HIGHEST FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS) FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH
OF PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHEAST MT HAVING A LOW CHANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTH AND EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS, POTENTIALLY FAVORING UPSLOPING FOR NORTH AND
EAST FACING FOOTHILLS. AS A TIGHT ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN FOR THE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MODERATE CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS
COME INTO PLAY ONCE AGAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE WEEKEND (WITH
A FEW PLACES TOUCHING 70). TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE 40S AND
50S MONDAY, 30S AND 40S TUESDAY, WARMING BACK TO THE 50S AND 60S
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TS/STP
AVIATION
EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS NEAR KLVM, K1KM, AND K6S0
EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KTS BY LATE MORNING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 35 KTS COMMON NEAR ALL OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEAROOTHS AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 041/068 036/049 028/041 022/049 036/063 033/051
0/N 00/N 26/W 84/J 11/N 23/W 54/W
LVM 052 041/060 042/052 023/036 017/046 036/057 036/050
2/W 10/N 25/W 65/J 12/J 23/W 44/W
HDN 060 037/070 033/049 028/043 021/049 033/064 030/051
1/N 00/N 36/W 85/J 21/N 33/W 55/W
MLS 058 041/067 028/042 026/041 022/044 031/059 026/041
0/N 00/N 34/W 43/J 11/B 23/W 44/J
4BQ 057 039/068 034/050 027/041 022/045 030/061 029/048
0/U 00/N 13/W 65/J 11/B 13/W 44/W
BHK 055 037/064 025/042 023/039 018/042 025/053 023/039
0/N 00/N 24/J 53/J 11/B 23/W 44/J
SHR 057 030/066 034/054 021/038 016/044 025/061 025/047
0/B 00/B 14/W 88/J 31/B 12/W 45/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 29-34-42-68.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 65-66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 67.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 68.
WY...NONE.
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