998
FXUS65 KBYZ 130150
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
750 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM (UPPER 80S AND 90S) AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COOLER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS BECOME DRY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL (MID 80S TO LOW
90S) BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
OUR REGION IS UNDERNEATH A DRY/ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S TODAY. AFTER A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT, WE
SHOULD SEE LOWER-MID 90S ON SUNDAY...AND THE BACKING FLOW ALOFT
MAY YIELD ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS BY
EVENING. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPS, SKY & WINDS PER CURRENT TRENDS. JKL
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AFTER A MORNING WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S,
TEMPERATURES HAVE ROARED BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S AS OF 1PM, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE SLIGHTLY BREEZY, GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS A BIT ON SUNDAY, KEEPING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS AROUND, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
A PATTERN CHANGE TO WET AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. WHILE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A PHASED PASSAGE, WITH A
DRASTIC WIND SHIFT MONDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS NOT PICKING UP UNTIL
LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ONSET OF THE COOLER
WEATHER IS ALSO UNCERTAIN BEHIND THE FRONT, SO MONDAY'S HIGH TEMP
FORECAST HAS A RANGE FROM 85-95. THIS CHANGE TO SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA.
VERTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOLER
AND UNSETTLED INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION, WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE (HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS)
OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH OF PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO
DROP JUST BELOW 12,000 FEET IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO A
20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING TO BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK, RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE ARE
ALSO SIGNALS THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A
40-60% CHANCE THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW 70 FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM, ALTHOUGH
HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID 80S TO
NEAR 90. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/095 064/094 059/067 054/067 051/080 056/085 057/089
00/U 01/U 56/T 64/T 11/B 11/U 10/U
LVM 052/093 056/093 053/068 047/069 045/083 049/086 051/088
00/U 12/T 57/T 63/T 12/T 21/U 11/U
HDN 057/095 061/094 059/069 053/067 049/081 054/086 056/089
00/U 01/U 55/T 74/T 21/B 21/U 10/U
MLS 060/096 063/094 061/072 053/067 051/077 055/083 058/088
00/U 10/U 55/T 64/T 21/B 21/U 10/U
4BQ 060/093 066/094 062/072 055/067 053/075 057/084 058/086
00/U 01/U 44/T 74/T 31/B 20/U 10/U
BHK 055/092 063/095 056/069 050/064 047/072 051/081 055/085
00/U 01/U 45/T 64/T 21/B 21/U 21/U
SHR 052/092 058/092 056/072 050/070 046/080 051/086 052/088
00/U 01/U 45/T 75/T 21/B 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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