816
FXUS65 KBYZ 250638
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1238 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND LOOKS TO STAY
THAT WAY INTO SUNDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50SF TODAY AND 40S
ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% TODAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, UP TO
AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS TODAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S TO
30 MPH.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE IN MODERATE TO HIGH AGREEMENT
THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS LOOKS TO FINALLY GET THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA MOVING, WHILE
ALSO BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THE LATEST MODEL DEPICTIONS STILL FAVOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA FOR
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THOUGH DISCREPANCIES ON AMOUNTS
AND PRECIP TYPE REMAIN. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PLAYING
CATCHUP TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, WITH THE FORMER BEING A BIT
DRIER. THE LOW-UPPER LEVELS ARE A BIT MESSY, WITH THE 500-300MB
PATTERN ALIGNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER IDAHO/MONTANA. AT 700MB
THOUGH, A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH WYOMING AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST MT AND A LOW OVER EASTERN ID. BECAUSE OF THIS
SURFACE PATTERN, EASTERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, BRINGING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO AREAS SUCH AS THE BIGHORNS.
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO MONDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH, A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK WOULD BRING BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD REDUCE THEM. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITY FOR
AT LEAST 0.25" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOW
TO MODERATE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS,
AND MODERATE TO HIGH FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS. FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.25" IS
MODERATE TO HIGH, BEST CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS WELL (25-50% CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL). CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S AND 50SF
MONDAY, 50S TO LOW 60SF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE 70SF BY FRIDAY.
MATOS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER VARIABLE SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
LOOK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS
RANGE AND ITS FOOTHILLS (KLVM, KRED) DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRISK
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25-30 KTS AT MANY LOCATIONS. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 029/044 030/045 030/057 035/059 035/063 036/071
1/B 16/J 76/W 25/W 23/W 11/U 01/U
LVM 047 023/043 025/046 028/055 031/056 032/060 032/068
1/B 26/J 67/W 36/W 24/T 11/U 01/U
HDN 050 028/047 029/046 029/058 032/060 033/063 033/072
1/B 17/W 86/W 35/W 23/W 11/U 01/U
MLS 046 027/046 029/046 029/055 032/058 031/060 033/070
0/B 16/W 74/W 02/W 11/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 048 029/044 031/043 029/052 031/057 032/058 032/067
1/B 18/W 94/W 13/W 11/B 11/U 00/U
BHK 046 024/045 028/045 024/050 028/054 027/055 030/065
0/N 17/W 83/J 12/W 11/B 00/U 00/U
SHR 045 023/044 025/043 026/051 027/054 030/057 028/066
1/B 18/W 96/W 47/T 24/W 23/W 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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