836
FXUS65 KBYZ 110845
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS BEGIN INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS MAY
BE STRONGER THAN SUNDAY'S WIND EVENT. STRONG TO DANGEROUS
CROSSWINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. DAMAGE TO ROOFS/FENCES AND TREES ARE POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH POWER OUTAGES.
- AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT MAY BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED!
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A
MODESTLY TIGHT GRADIENT. THIS PATTERN LEADING TO DOWNSLOPING WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. FOR THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS, GUSTS 40-50 MPH WILL
BE COMMON, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30 MPH EVERYWHERE ELSE. INTO
THE EVENING 700 MB WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WHILST THE
GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND
INCREASE. THESE COMPONENTS WILL GROW STRONGER OVERNIGHT AS 700
WINDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HI RES MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS NORTHWEST OF
RED LODGE AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS OF THE BIGHORNS.
PERIODIC GUSTS 60-70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 700 MB WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT 75-90 KTS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCATIONS LIKE LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER, AND
HARLOWTON HAVE ABOUT A 70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 70 MPH WITH ABOUT
A 30-40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 80 MPH. PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MT (BILLINGS AND SURROUNDING AREA) AND THE SHERIDAN, WY FOOTHILLS
HAVE ABOUT A 30-60% CHANCE OF GUSTING TO AT LEAST 70 MPH, WITH
SOUTHEAST MT UP TO A 30-50% CHANCE. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY SLIGHTLY
LIMIT WINDS IS WILL BE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS LOOKS TO
BRING IN A BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THIS BAND LOOKS TO MOVE IN A LITTLE
EARLIER (LATE MORNING) THAN ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY, LESS THAN A
TENTH OF PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH THIS INITIAL PRECIP. AS HIGHER
PRESSURES WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
GIVEN INCREASED PACIFIC FLOW AND MOISTURE, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM
HARLOWTON DOWN THROUGH BIG HORN COUNTY AND SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT AMOUNTS GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY THIS PATTERN CAN PRESENT. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES
EXIST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT FOR AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR
SOUTHEAST MT. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES EXIST FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS TO GET AT LEAST TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THIS SAME
TIME FRAME. FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND, HIGHER HEIGHTS LOOK TO BUILD
IN, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD PERSIST UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TS
AVIATION
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 40-50 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT KLVM, K6S0 & KHWQ THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY IMMEDIATE THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 45 TO 65 KTS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY DUE TO SNOW. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 037/060 032/041 028/041 016/035 022/050 038/068
0/N 12/W 99/W 99/J 73/J 44/W 32/W
LVM 046 038/054 039/052 037/047 019/038 026/054 044/067
0/N 23/W 88/W 8+/W 63/J 55/W 31/N
HDN 049 033/062 029/042 026/041 015/035 018/048 034/067
1/B 23/W +9/W 99/W 84/J 45/W 32/W
MLS 045 031/054 025/037 023/035 013/027 014/040 031/058
1/U 35/W 68/J 79/J 62/J 24/J 22/W
4BQ 045 028/059 028/040 027/041 016/030 016/042 033/063
0/U 14/W 78/J 78/W 72/J 24/W 22/W
BHK 042 027/051 020/037 020/034 011/026 008/035 022/054
0/U 27/W 37/J 68/J 72/J 13/J 23/W
SHR 043 025/059 025/046 025/045 012/032 014/046 032/067
0/U 14/W 98/W 79/W 84/J 34/W 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 29-56-57-138-139-169-170-173-235.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37-58.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
MDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 34-40-42-63-64-67-68-141-172-228.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
MDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 67.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 68.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 171.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ZONE 199.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR ZONE 198.
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