745
FXUS65 KBYZ 251303
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
603 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF
BILLINGS THIS MORNING; LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER HIGHER HILLS. HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS 60-75 MPH EXPECTED. TEMPS IN 50S TO LOWER
60S.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, BEHIND A LATE FRIDAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS.
- TURNING WARMER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
6AM UPDATE: HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CRAZY
MOUNTAINS, AS THE BAND OF PRECIP HAS SAGGED TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS MORNING.
409AM DISCUSSION: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WNW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU CENTRAL MT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM, WHICH ALONG WITH THE FORCING WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDAY, WITH PRECIP
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER TIME PER THE WAVE'S TRACK.
BOUNDARY LAYER AT LOWER ELEVATIONS REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE, UPPER
30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH WET BULB AND DYNAMIC COOLING IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS TO
BRING A MIX WITH WET SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ~4KFT AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, BUT MOST PLACES WILL SEE JUST RAIN. SHOWER
DOWNDRAFTS COULD ALSO BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, EVEN AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL 12-15Z IN
OUR WEST. OF COURSE, DURING THIS TIME WEST ASPECTS OF THE
BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW. THE INSTABILITY IS
SUGGESTIVE OF 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES, ALBEIT FOR A SHORT TIME.
SNOTELS IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY SHOW ABOUT 0.80" OF SWE
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER 0.25-0.35" OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE A FEW TEMP, WIND AND POP/WX
ADJUSTMENTS PER CURRENT TRENDS.
FRONTAL WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF BILLINGS WHERE GUSTS SHOULD REACH 50+ MPH PER THE MAGNITUDE OF
MID LEVEL WINDS. LIVINGSTON ITSELF MAY PUSH 60 MPH WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF, OR WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER ENHANCEMENT, BUT OTHERWISE ONCE
THE MIXING OF THE DAY TAKES OVER BY MID MORNING OR SO, THEY ARE
LOOKING AT ~50 MPH GUSTS. THE FLOW FAVORS THE US-191 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE CHANCE OF REACHING 60 MPH GUSTS IS HIGHER THAN THE GAP
LOCATIONS (50% VS 35%). THAT SAID, STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL EMERGES
BY TOMORROW AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN
PLACE.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND RETREAT SOUTH BY MID DAY TODAY. MODERATE CHANCES FOR
AT LEAST ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS ARE FORECAST
TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY WITH 2-5 FOR THE
BIGHORNS AND CRAZIES. RECREATION IN HIGH COUNTRY WILL BE DANGEROUS
AS STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE AVALANCHE DANGER.
WITH THIS WAVE PUSHING THROUGH, THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AN
INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS MAINLY FROM THE BIG TIMBER THROUGH
JUDITH GAP. PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 55 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS. FOR THE
LIVINGSTON TO NYE AREAS, ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO
EXCEED 60 MPH FOR TODAY. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF LULL IN
STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY AS 700 MB WINDS DECREASE. GOING INTO
THURSDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND TIGHTENS, BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TO
RECEIVE STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY,
700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 45-65 KTS GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR A STRONG WIND EVENT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE
LIVINGSTON TO NYE AREA, MODERATE CHANCES FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 75
MPH EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS THE GRADIENT FROM IDAHO FALLS TO
LEWISTOWN INCREASES TO 16-18 MB. AS A DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL WORK TO INCREASE PRESSURE
AND LESSEN UP THE GRADIENT, DECREASING WINDS. LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND (NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL). HIGHER HEIGHTS MOVING IN BY SUNDAY WILL START AN
INCREASING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. TS
AVIATION
UNSTABLE DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. VFR WILL BE DOMINANT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN THE SHOWERS. THE TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
A MIX WITH WET SNOW IS KSHR, AND A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR IS
POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED IN SNOW THROUGH MIDDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON, AND DRIER AIR WITH
PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING VFR ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. REGARDING WIND, A PACIFIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS BEGINNING IN THE 12-15Z TIME
FRAME. LOOK FOR 35-45 KNOT GUSTS WEST OF KBIL, WITH NEAR 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS. GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL
BE COMMON EAST OF KBIL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THRU TONIGHT (GUSTS 35-50 KNOTS). JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 035/058 038/059 023/040 022/046 026/059 030/061
5/W 00/N 01/N 44/S 11/B 00/U 00/U
LVM 050 034/054 036/054 031/051 028/051 028/055 030/058
6/W 00/N 00/N 22/S 11/B 00/U 00/U
HDN 054 031/060 036/059 021/042 019/046 023/060 027/062
6/W 00/N 01/B 55/S 11/B 00/U 00/U
MLS 048 029/055 034/047 016/030 016/038 019/053 025/055
1/N 00/N 02/S 75/S 10/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 049 030/055 036/054 021/039 020/043 022/056 027/059
5/W 00/N 00/U 54/S 11/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 046 026/050 028/043 012/025 009/033 015/047 022/049
1/N 00/N 01/B 76/S 11/B 00/U 00/U
SHR 050 023/057 030/057 022/044 021/046 023/056 025/059
+/W 00/U 00/N 33/S 11/B 11/U 10/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
34-42-63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONE 67.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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