544
FXUS65 KBYZ 172226
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
326 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS ONGOING AND WILL
LAST THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS MAY CAUSE DAMAGE
TO TREES, POWER LINES AND SOME STRUCTURES!
- INCREASED CONCERN FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
EASTERN MT TONIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FALLON
COUNTY THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE BEARTOOTH
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY TO SATURDAY; 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A FOOT OF SNOW ON WEST ASPECTS, 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 18 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. BE
PREPARED FOR WIND GUSTS HIGHER THAN "USUAL" WITH 60 TO 75 MPH
GUSTS OCCURRING CROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS MAY
CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES, POWER LINES AND SOME STRUCTURES. TRAVEL
AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE IMPACTED. SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR
ITEMS.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 80-100
KNOTS, THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT, WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THERE IS CONCERN
FOR WINDS EXCEEDING 75 MPH IN THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING GUSTS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S MPH.
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR EAST
LATER THIS EVENING, WITH SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST IN FALLON
COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND ACCUMULATING SNOW, ALONG
WITH THE STRONG TO EXTREME WIND GUSTS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FALLON COUNTY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, EVEN
THOUGH LOWER ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST, THE COMBINATION OF
EXTREME WIND GUSTS AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFICULTIES TO THOSE TRAVELING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 20S TONIGHT
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 40S OVER
THE WEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG FOOTHILL WINDS IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND 700 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KTS. ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
FOR THESE STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST.
ANOTHER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
TRANSLATES TO PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW (90% CHANCE OF
12+ INCHES OVER WEST ASPECTS OF THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS THU-SAT,
60-70% CHANCE OF 18+ INCHES) AND RAIN/SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING
INTO THE REGION AT TIMES BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
MOST DAYS, COLDEST OVER THE EAST. STP/PM
AVIATION
THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXTREME
WINDS. STRONG TO EXTREME WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 50 KTS (>50% FOR
ALL TAF SITES) ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OVER 60 KTS POSSIBLE
(10-60% FOR TAF SITES) ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
GUSTS OVER 60 KT IS IN THE FOOTHILLS, AREAS NORTH OF KBIL, AND IN
SOUTHEAST MT. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
REGION BY 15Z THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, A BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KT CAN REACH THE SURFACE WITH THIS BAND OF RAIN. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST MT AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT, MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF KMLS-K4BQ. THE GREATER IMPACTS TO
VISIBILITY FROM SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SHOULD OCCUR NEAR KBHK AND K97M.
TORGERSON/RMS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/040 033/056 025/041 025/042 031/049 027/043 026/047
00/N 15/W 61/U 01/B 13/W 21/B 11/B
LVM 026/043 034/051 022/037 021/044 034/047 028/046 032/049
13/J 58/W 61/N 02/W 35/W 32/W 13/W
HDN 021/039 030/056 022/041 021/041 026/048 024/043 024/046
10/B 15/W 72/J 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/B
MLS 012/031 023/047 018/037 020/039 025/042 021/040 022/041
30/N 12/W 41/U 00/B 01/E 10/B 00/B
4BQ 017/034 028/054 025/038 023/043 029/050 026/044 027/047
20/N 02/W 61/U 00/B 01/B 10/B 00/B
BHK 003/025 015/045 014/033 016/040 023/044 020/039 021/041
51/N 12/W 31/U 00/B 01/E 10/B 10/B
SHR 020/037 023/056 019/037 017/043 026/050 024/046 026/050
10/N 02/W 83/J 10/B 01/B 10/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
29-30-34-42-56-57-63-67-68-138-139-141-169>173-228-235.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
31>33-36-37-58.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 33.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 40-64>66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM
MST SATURDAY FOR ZONE 67.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST THURSDAY FOR ZONES
198-199.
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