211  
FXUS65 KBYZ 192055  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
155 PM MST WED FEB 19 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING DRY  
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXISTING SNOW  
COVER, WHICH IS NOT UNIFORM, WILL HAVE ITS USUAL EFFECT ON  
TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S  
TOMORROW, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GETTING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER.  
 
ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS WIND. LEE TROF IS ALREADY FORMING, AND  
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT COURTESY OF A 1040+  
MB HIGH OVER EASTERN ID AND WESTERN WY. INITIALLY, MODEST AND  
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT FAVOR THE GAP AREAS...SO PLACES  
LIKE BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON SHOULD BE WINDIER THAN LIVINGSTON  
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. BACKING AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT  
ATTENTION TO THE GAP AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY  
NIGHT, WHEN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.  
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KTS BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AND  
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE.  
SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD.  
 
JKL  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING  
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF  
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DISRUPT THINGS SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO  
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE WESTERN GAP AREAS FROM  
LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NYE WILL SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY TO  
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY  
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL DISRUPT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS  
ALLOWING THE STRONG GAP WINDS TO BACK OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN TOUCH 50  
DEGREES.  
 
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO  
INCREASE IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DETAILS HOWEVER,  
STILL REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. A TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH EAST INTO THE  
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTING AN ASSOCIATED OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHILE  
OTHERS SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER LOW. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS  
THEN PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS, COOLER  
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD LEAD TO  
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THOSE WITH  
OUTDOOR OR TRAVEL PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK, PLEASE KEEP CLOSE TABS ON  
THE FORECAST. STP  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THURSDAY. SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN  
FOOTHILLS. LOOK FOR 25-40 KT GUSTS AT KLVM, K6S0 AND KHWQ LATE  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. JKL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 016/035 021/043 026/048 026/045 028/040 022/032 017/032  
00/N 00/N 00/N 01/B 45/O 54/S 21/B  
LVM 015/039 023/045 024/048 025/045 027/035 020/030 015/035  
00/N 00/N 00/N 01/B 76/S 53/S 11/B  
HDN 008/039 015/047 021/051 023/045 026/040 020/032 014/033  
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 46/O 65/S 31/B  
MLS 007/039 017/046 024/050 023/042 024/037 017/028 009/027  
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 45/O 54/S 21/B  
4BQ 005/038 013/048 020/051 022/043 024/038 017/028 010/027  
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 36/O 55/S 21/B  
BHK 003/035 014/041 019/045 018/038 020/034 013/024 005/023  
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 35/S 54/S 21/B  
SHR 903/037 010/045 019/047 019/041 021/036 016/027 009/029  
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 47/S 66/S 31/B  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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