240
FXUS65 KBYZ 282026
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
126 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY.
- WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE (60%) OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF BILLINGS.
- WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (MAINLY LIVINGSTON TO
NYE) WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHT
COOL DOWN WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (30 TO 70 PERCENT).
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
COOLER CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING BEHIND AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AS
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS FAR
WEST AS LIVINGSTON, MT. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE FIRST DAY
OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S,
COLDEST OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL THEN SEE SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 60S, WARMEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH, WHICH MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY
TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF BILLINGS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY (30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER THE ABSAROKA-
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS), BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT.
WHILE THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME, THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA, POTENTIALLY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY. A SUBTLE COLD
FRONT LATE MONDAY WILL THEN CLEAR THIS CLOUD COVER OUT, ALLOWING
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO BE WARM AND DRY DAYS.
AS MID-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS OVER THE COMMON GAP WIND
LOCATIONS OF LIVINGSTON TO NYE LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.
CURRENTLY, LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 50 MPH OR
GREATER WINDS GUSTS DURING THIS TIME. THE CHANCE OF 60 MPH GUSTS
IS 45 PERCENT.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE LATEST RUN OF MODELS HAS DIVERGED
A BIT ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. ONE SOLUTION SHOWS A
STRONGER TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL LOW OVER OUR REGION, RESULTING IN
HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THE OTHER IS DEVELOPING A MORE OPEN
WAY, WITH LESS PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME, THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT,
SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
LOOKS TO START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX,
MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER HILLS. IN THE MOUNTAINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO OCCUR. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND WETTER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS A
SECONDARY WAVE WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
ARENDS
AVIATION
THE BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/056 034/059 032/064 040/062 036/051 030/052 030/055
00/B 00/E 00/U 01/E 64/W 21/B 12/W
LVM 028/057 035/055 031/060 037/056 031/045 027/046 028/049
00/B 11/E 10/U 03/W 73/W 11/N 12/W
HDN 021/055 029/058 027/065 032/064 033/049 025/053 027/057
00/B 00/E 10/U 01/E 65/W 21/B 12/W
MLS 020/046 026/055 026/059 032/060 030/043 022/047 026/052
00/U 00/B 00/U 00/E 33/W 10/U 01/B
4BQ 022/051 029/057 028/060 035/062 032/048 025/048 028/054
00/B 00/E 00/U 00/B 34/W 21/U 11/U
BHK 015/045 024/055 024/056 032/058 025/042 019/043 024/050
00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 23/W 11/B 01/U
SHR 021/054 029/056 027/060 029/060 028/045 022/046 021/054
00/B 02/W 10/U 01/B 56/W 32/W 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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