112
FXUS65 KBYZ 101138
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
538 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTH, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- WINDS BEGIN INCREASING WEDNESDAY OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER THAN SUNDAY'S WIND EVENT,
ESPECIALLY FROM BILLING WEST.
- LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATE WEEK FORECAST, BUT AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT MAY BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S AND 40S AS A JET IMPULSE DIGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, ALLOWING
COLDER AIR TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. UPSLOPE WILL HELP TO INCREASE
SNOWFALL ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT OVER SOUTHERN BIG HORN CO MT, SHERIDAN CO WY, AND THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
A 70-90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE BIGHORN
FOOTHILLS AND A 50% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
LATE TONIGHT, THE JET STREAM BACKS NORTHWARD AND STRAIGHTENS OUT,
PUSHING THE COLDER AIR NORTHWARD AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MIXDOWN OF
THE WESTERN WINDS ALOFT DUE TO THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 40S TO MID 50S) BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST IN THE 40S AND 50S MPH, INCREASING FURTHER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S MPH, DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE JET.
THURSDAY WINDS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR, IF NOT A BIT
STRONGER, THAN THE WIND EVENT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE 700 MB
WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20KTS STRONGER THAN
SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING AT THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN FOOTHILLS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 50S TO 60S MPH.
CURRENTLY, MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A BETTER THAN 50% CHANCE OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 60 MPH. AS A RESULT, HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS THURSDAY, A STREAM OF MOISTURE IS EXPECT
TO ENTER THE REGION. MEAN WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT LEVELS ARE 5
TO 6 SD ABOVE NORMAL WITH PWATS AROUND 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
MOISTURE FETCH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE INCREDIBLE
AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE THAT IS BEING FORECAST, LEADING TO A 50 TO
80% PRECIPITATION CHANCE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRASS FIRE
CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE WINDS, BUT THIS
MOISTURE FETCH MAY KNOCK THE FIRE THREAT DOWN A FEW NOTCHES BELOW
CRITICAL.
THROUGH SATURDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE STRONG PUSH
OF MOISTURE, WITH A DAILY 70-90% CHANCE OF PRECIP. CURRENTLY,
THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5" OF PRECIP WEST OF
ROSEBUD CO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THIS PRECIP FALLS
AS RAIN VERSUS SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND GREATLY DEPENDENT ON
THE LOCATION OF THE JET STREAM AXIS. JUST A FEW HUNDRED MILES
DIFFERENCE NORTH OR SOUTH WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE
COLD AIR IS LOCATED. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEK IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR OR TRAVEL PLANS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE INCREASED PUSH OF MOISTURE AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. ARCHER
AVIATION
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY
EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE MOUNTAINS ARE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK (20% CHANCE) OF FOG AND THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. HEADING THROUGH THE MORNING, EXPECT SNOW TO BECOME
MORE IMPACTFUL OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, WITH
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR. KSHR HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR
REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE SNOW. MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOSTLY OBSCURED.
EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041 021/048 036/060 033/053 030/042 017/035 023/051
3/J 20/N 34/W 87/W 89/W 62/J 33/W
LVM 037 018/045 039/055 041/055 038/047 021/039 027/055
5/J 21/N 35/W 66/W 78/W 52/J 34/W
HDN 043 020/050 033/061 030/052 027/043 015/036 019/050
6/J 31/B 45/W 97/W 89/W 73/J 33/W
MLS 041 023/045 031/051 026/041 025/034 013/028 014/040
2/E 10/B 47/W 68/W 78/J 41/E 12/J
4BQ 038 023/045 029/057 029/050 028/044 016/031 018/044
7/J 20/U 25/W 87/W 69/W 62/J 12/J
BHK 038 019/043 026/049 022/039 022/033 011/027 009/037
2/J 00/B 38/W 47/J 68/J 51/E 12/J
SHR 035 009/044 027/059 028/054 027/046 012/032 014/047
9/J 50/U 14/W 85/W 59/W 73/J 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 29-56-57-138-139-169>171-173-235.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37-58.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 34-40-42-63-64-67-68-141-172-228.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 65-66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONE 138.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 198-199.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 198-199.
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