489
FXUS65 KBYZ 281010
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
310 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT DROPPED THROUGH THE CWA LAST EVENING. MOST
AREAS ONLY SAW BRIEF SNOW AND WIND, BUT THE SYSTEM DID DEPOSIT A
QUICK ONE OR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AND FOOTHILLS. SO
WHILE THE SNOW AND WIND HAVE ENDED FOR MOST AREAS, SOME ROADS MAY
BE HAVE SOME SNOWPACK AND SLICK SPOTS EARLY TODAY INCLUDING I-90
FROM ABOUT PARK CITY TO BOZEMAN PASS, AND US-212 TO RED LODGE AND
OTHER ROADS IN THE FOOTHILLS. MEDIA PARTNERS PLEASE HELP US PASS
THIS ON FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FRONTOGENESIS IS LINGERING AT THIS TIME OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER. SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WY MAY STILL SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
EVENT IS OVER. TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER ALBERTA AND SENDS COLDER AIR INTO MT. HOWEVER, FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC AND THERE WILL BE WEAK UPSLOPE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH SOME ENERGY WITHIN THE GENERAL FLOW. SO WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY FLURRIES, IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WEST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS LATE TODAY, WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
ONE INCH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE 20S TO
NEAR 30 DEGREES, BUT DROP LATE AS REINFORCING COLD AIR INVADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO SOLVE MID LEVEL PATTERN FOR TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MAIN MESSAGE IS SOME ENERGY WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
NONE OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION. ALREADY SNOWPACKED AND SLICK ROADS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL SKIFF, SO SLOWER COMMUTES ARE STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST
AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS. BT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
500 HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON SOUTH AND WEST
FACING ASPECTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOKING AT WINDS, THE
LATEST LOCAL WIND GUIDANCE HAS PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AT LIVINGSTON OF AROUND 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS THEN SUGGEST A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR
NOW, A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. DRIER
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM MAINLY THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY TO THE 30S TO 40S ON THURSDAY, BEFORE COOLING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S ON FRIDAY. MAINLY 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
BT
AVIATION
AREAS OF MVFR MAY LINGER ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTHS
AND BIG HORNS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST GREATER THAN 30KTS
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON INCLUDING KMLS, KBHK AND KEKA. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029 010/019 008/025 019/042 014/022 009/033 020/037
0/B 20/B 00/B 01/B 54/S 11/B 12/S
LVM 025 001/016 004/030 023/042 015/029 012/033 020/035
1/B 21/B 00/N 23/S 75/S 11/B 33/S
HDN 029 005/018 901/024 011/040 008/020 001/032 011/034
0/B 11/E 00/B 01/E 44/S 10/U 11/B
MLS 027 008/016 000/022 012/037 009/016 002/029 013/032
0/B 00/E 00/U 01/E 33/S 10/U 11/B
4BQ 031 008/017 002/028 017/048 013/024 007/037 017/038
1/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 22/S 10/U 01/B
BHK 027 007/015 000/021 010/041 008/017 901/031 014/032
0/N 00/N 00/U 00/B 22/S 10/U 11/U
SHR 027 003/016 902/028 014/044 012/027 005/035 017/038
3/S 21/B 00/U 00/B 33/S 10/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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