241
FXUS65 KBYZ 290819
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
119 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY
(BILLINGS EASTWARD). PATCHY BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY FOOTHILLS WINDS (40 TO 50+ MPH) THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WEEK AHEAD WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THE THEME FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD. ANOTHER SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS PUSHES
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND OVER OUR AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW, BUT LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO MOST OF THE REGION.
ARCTIC AIR IS BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
THIS MORNING. THIS IS LEAVING A PRESSURE VOID BETWEEN THE COLD AIR
AND THE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS, EXTENDING EAST INTO STILLWATER/GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES.
MODELS TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THESE
RETREATING ARCTIC AIR SCENARIOS, AND TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION.
CURRENTLY SEEING GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH FOR LIVINGSTON, BIG
TIMBER, AND NYE WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE AROUND
HARLOWTON. STARTED THE FORECAST WITH WINDS USING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE NBM THEN MADE SURE GUSTS WERE AS HIGH AS THE HRRR AND
CONSSHORT AS THESE MODEL GROUPS ARE HANDLING THE CURRENT GUSTS THE
BEST. HREF ALSO SEEMS TO BE DOING WELL WITH THE GENERAL IDEA AND
PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST WINDS, THOUGH YOU HAVE TO GO WITH THE MAX
OF ALL MODELS WITHIN THE HREF TO GET NEAR THE CURRENT VALUES.
LOOKING AT MODEL WIND GUIDANCE GOING FORWARD, THE INGREDIENTS FOR
THE STRONGEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, RE-DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY. USING HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 45 MPH, VALUES DROP BELOW 50% IN THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY 10AM THIS MORNING. VALUES ABOVE 50% RE-
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THEN DROP AFTER 8AM TUESDAY MORNING.
GIVING THIS TREND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLITES FOR NOW,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 60 MPH IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION (~20%) OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS FURTHER EAST TODAY WILL SEE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS AND WARMER AIR FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES. GIVEN THE LIGHT POWDERY SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AS THE WINDS
INCREASE. DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO THE SNOW
COVER ONLY BEING A FEW INCHES DEEP, BUT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
SOME DRIFTING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 40S WEST, AND GET
CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH WIND GUSTS LESSENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WEST AND UPPER 30S
EAST.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA WILL WORK TO
PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEING NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SOME AREAS. LATEST NBM SHOWS
AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR HIGHS BELOW 30 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US12/I-94 IN ROSEBUD, CUSTER, FALLON
COUNTY. GIVEN OUR LOCATION IN BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO THE WEST (NW JET STREAM IN THE VICINITY) SIGNIFICANT
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE ARE POSSIBLE OVER SE MONTANA (MAYBE AS
FAR WEST AS ROUNDUP-BILLINGS-SHERIDAN LINE), SO STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST AS IT CAN CHANGE QUICKLY IN THESE SETUPS. AGAIN, LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD SHIFT
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOME SPOTS.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GETS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE INCOMING PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE EXISTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP
TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. OVERALL THIS PRESENTS
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE (SUBSIDENCE) AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES KEEPING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
GOING. FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT CONSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CURRENT SNOW LEVELS HOVER BETWEEN 6500-7000 FEET FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, SO WE SHOULD BE ADDING SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOW WATER TO THE
WEST FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY, BUT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM, K6S0 AND K3HT) WITH GUSTS 30-45KTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 028/045 032/049 031/048 035/052 033/050 029/049
0/Q 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/B 11/B
LVM 041 027/046 030/050 031/049 034/050 034/050 031/047
0/Q 00/B 00/U 00/E 01/N 12/O 21/B
HDN 039 022/046 025/046 024/045 029/049 028/048 025/046
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 21/B
MLS 034 022/041 024/036 019/037 022/041 024/041 024/042
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/B 21/B
4BQ 037 024/044 027/044 025/045 028/047 028/045 026/046
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 032 018/039 021/033 017/038 018/040 021/040 019/040
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/B 21/B
SHR 039 020/044 024/050 027/049 027/049 027/048 025/047
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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