738
FXUS65 KBYZ 102034
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
234 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE BIG HORNS
REGION AND SE MT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- WINDS BEGIN INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS.
- VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WINDS
MAY BE STRONGER THAN SUNDAY'S WIND EVENT, ESPECIALLY FROM
BILLING WEST.
- LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATE WEEK FORECAST, BUT AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT MAY BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED!
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY...
WE ARE FOCUSED ON HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT LETS TALK ABOUT CURRENT SNOW AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND THE BIG HORNS REGION OF WY FIRST.
REPORTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES OF SLUSHY WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY TODAY WHERE A CONVERGENT LAYER (700MB
FRONTOGENESIS) AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WERE CO-LOCATED. MODELS
SLOWLY SINK THIS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WY AND SOUTHEAST MT
INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. EVENING COMMUTE IN THE
SHERIDAN AREA AND ALONG I-90 THERE WILL BE IMPACTED. A LITTLE
CONCERNED SE MT SUCH AS POWDER RIVER AND CARTER MAY PICK UP AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR NOW. MOST OF THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH SNOW TAPERING DOWN. HIGHLIGHTS GO UNTIL 9AM WEDNESDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRICKY PATTERN AND RESULTANT SLICK ROADS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY PICK UP
IN THE GAP FLOW AREAS (LIVINGSTON, NYE) BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO
PRESSURE FALLS OVER LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES. WINDS ELSEWHERE MAY
BECOME SOMEWHAT BRISK AS WELL WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS AS WE WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S.
HIGH WIND EPISODE...THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THIS EPISODE IS
A 700MB JET STREAK MOVING RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THIS IS SIMILAR
TO DECEMBER 17TH EARLIER THIS WINTER WHERE 700MB WIND SPEEDS OF 75
TO 90 KTS CROSS THE STATE OF MONTANA. WE ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS
IN THE FOOTHILLS FROM GAP FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE LATEST
PROGGS NOSE THESE WINDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BY MIDNIGHT AND
INTO OUR CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. THESE 700 MB
WINDS THEN STRETCH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. POTENTIAL GUSTS
75 TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTS 65 TO 80 MPH OVER THE PLAINS. PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 60
MPH GUSTS RANGE FROM 100% IN OUR FOOTHILLS TO 30% IN OUR EAST. THE
ONE CAVEAT WITH THIS COMPARED TO LAST DECEMBER, WE SHOULD HAVE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WHICH COULD MUTE DEEP MIXING OF WINDS.
THAT SAID, CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW DEEP MIXING
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. FOR BILLINGS SPECIFICALLY, LATEST PROGGS
SHOW INVERSION BREAKING AROUND 10 AM THURSDAY. AS COLD FRONT DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND DECREASE TO 25-35 MPH RANGE AND FINALLY DIMINISH UNDER 20 MPH
AT MID EVENING.
IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO ROOFTOPS, FENCES AND TREES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR ENHANCED GRASS FIRE BEHAVIOR, BUT RECENT LIGHT PRECIP,
HIGHER RH READINGS AND CLOUD COVER MAY MINIMIZE THIS TO SOME
DEGREE.
LOOK FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
THURSDAY EVENING DEVELOPING INTO A BAROCLINIC BAND ORIENTED FROM
NW TO SE. THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING COMMUTES AS FAR WEST AS
BILLINGS AND COLUMBUS FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AND SNOW POTENTIAL...MODELS SUGGEST THE BAROCLINIC
BAND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WEST
WINDS AND RIDGING BATTLE THE COLDER AIR. THIS MAY LEAVE A FEW
INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER THIS TRANSITION ZONE. THE BAND IS PUSHED
TO FAR EAST CENTRAL MONTANA AREA (MILES CITY, BAKER) LATER
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S WEST TO MID 30S EAST. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW PASSES BY ALLOWING THE
COLDER AIR TO DRIVE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AGAIN AND COULD PUSH INTO
THE FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENTRENCH ITSELF THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SETS UP AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
UNDER A STRONG STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER)
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 AND I-94...WITH
50% CHANCE OF 8+ INCHES IN THESE AREAS (WHEATLAND, GOLDEN
VALLEY). HOWEVER, WE WOULD LIKE TO EMPHASIZE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
PLACEMENT IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE WAFFLING MOVEMENT EXPECTED
FROM THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BAND. PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND TRENDS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
REGION WE EXPECT TO SEE HEAVY OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH 1 TO 3 FEET
OF SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SEE A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM TROUGH TO RIDGE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHERE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MAY INITIATE
DECENT FORCING OVER OUR REGION LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOCALLY AND
IMPACT MONDAY MORNINGS COMMUTE. BUT THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AS ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE SPREAD HOW THIS
EVOLVES.
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THIS LOOKS SHORT LIVED...AS STRONG RIDGING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK COULD PUSH HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS
60S TO LOWER 70S) AND MAY QUICK WORK OF ANY SNOWFALL WE GET THIS
WEEKEND. BT
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH 20-40% CHANCES. SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TOMORROW AFTER
15Z WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS
K6S0, KLVM, AND K3HT. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021/048 037/060 032/051 026/039 015/033 020/049 038/066
31/N 14/W 98/W 99/J 72/J 33/W 31/E
LVM 019/046 038/055 039/053 034/045 018/037 024/052 043/065
30/N 26/W 88/W 89/W 63/J 44/W 31/N
HDN 020/049 033/061 029/050 025/041 014/034 015/049 034/066
31/B 26/W 99/W 99/W 83/J 33/W 32/W
MLS 023/045 031/053 026/038 022/032 011/027 012/038 027/055
20/B 47/W 68/J 88/J 62/J 12/J 22/W
4BQ 022/044 028/058 028/047 025/040 014/029 014/041 032/060
30/U 16/W 78/W 78/W 72/J 12/J 22/W
BHK 019/042 027/050 019/037 020/031 010/026 008/036 023/052
10/B 38/W 47/J 68/J 72/J 12/J 22/W
SHR 014/043 025/058 026/051 024/043 009/031 012/045 030/061
50/U 05/W 96/W 68/W 84/J 22/W 21/E
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 29-56-57-138-139-169>171-173-235.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37-58.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 34-40-42-63-64-67-68-141-172-228.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 65-66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONE 138.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 198-199.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 198-199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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