858
FXUS65 KBYZ 142033
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
133 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS 20-40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION.
- WEATHER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (20-40%).
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CURRENT ANALYSIS IS SHOWING BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. THIS
HAS BROUGHT SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AS
WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WITH THIS COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE WEST, THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 20-40 MPH. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE (10-30% CHANCE) FOR EASTERN MT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS JET ENERGY EXITS THE STATE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW TOTALS IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AROUND 4-8 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
(ABOVE 8000 FT) THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE LOW 60S
TO UPPER 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. INTO LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY A
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO COLORADO AND WYOMING,
CLIPPING THE MT/WY BORDER. A 15-30% CHANCE EXISTS FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THE MOUNTAINS AT A 40-60% CHANCE. ENSEMBLES ARE DIFFERING ON HOW
LONG THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND AS WELL AS THE TIMING ON THE
NEXT POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. TS
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF AREA MOUNTAINS WITH OCCASIONAL SUDDEN GUSTS OF
25 TO 40KTS POSSIBLE. SEVERAL UUA PIREPS ATTEST TO THIS ACTIVITY
BEING PRESENT. AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS MIXED WINDS WILL BRING
GUSTS OF 20 TO 40KTS OUT OF THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS IN
THE FORECAST AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING FOR KBIL/KSHR, AND
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KLVM AND KSHR. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
DIMINISHING WINDS AND TURNING THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS AROUND FROPA FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
FOR MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
VERY LIGHT SO NO FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS ANTICIPATED. AROUND
SUNRISE A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY WORK INTO THE KMLS AND KBHK
VICINITIES (~2KFT AGL). AT THIS TIME KEEPING THIS DECK SCATTERED.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/064 037/054 038/052 037/054 035/046 029/048 029/048
11/B 00/E 24/W 32/W 23/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 042/060 035/056 037/053 035/053 033/048 029/050 028/048
10/B 01/E 34/W 42/W 33/W 11/B 21/B
HDN 040/063 034/058 036/051 035/055 032/048 027/048 026/047
41/B 00/E 34/W 42/W 24/W 21/B 21/B
MLS 036/056 031/055 037/047 034/052 033/048 028/047 026/048
21/B 00/B 13/W 21/B 12/W 10/B 10/B
4BQ 039/059 034/058 037/049 036/052 033/048 029/048 027/046
20/U 00/B 13/W 21/B 12/W 10/B 11/B
BHK 033/051 028/055 032/044 030/048 028/046 025/045 025/045
21/B 00/B 12/W 21/E 12/W 20/B 10/B
SHR 034/060 033/057 034/050 031/054 030/049 025/048 023/046
10/B 00/B 35/W 32/W 23/W 21/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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