230
FXUS65 KBYZ 271022
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR FOOTHILLS OF THE
BEARTOOTHS AND BIGHORNS THROUGH MID MORNING.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE IMPACTED BY POOR VISIBILITY AND
SLICK ROADS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
- PERSISTENT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TODAY.
- SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH PERIODS OF
STRONG GUSTY WIND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WIND. VERY DYNAMIC
ATMOSPHERE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/LOW LEVEL FLOW DIRECTLY CROSS
BARRIER (PERPENDICULAR TO MTNS) HAS RESULTED IN SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTION ALONG EAST SLOPES OF BIG HORNS AND BEARTOOTHS LAST
EVENING, WITH GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE. CROSS SECTIONS
SUGGEST A CONTINUED THREAT OF THIS PRIOR TO THE APPROACHING
CANADIAN FRONT. SUDDEN STRONG WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH MAY OCCUR
ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG
HORNS. THIS INCLUDES THE RED LODGE AND SHERIDAN, WY VICINITIES
FROM 4 AM THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM. WIND IN THE USUAL WIND PRONE GAPS
LIVINGSTON/NYE) AND ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON COULD SEE GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS IS DISRUPTED WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
CANADIAN FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BILLINGS BETWEEN 8-11 AM AND
SOUTH THROUGH SHERIDAN AROUND MIDDAY. A DECENT BRIEF PERIOD OF
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY INTENSE FOR A SHORT TIME, AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY WITH A PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE ALONG NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL CRASH
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS BY
EVENING. WET OR SLUSHY ROADS COULD THUS TURN SLICK LATE TODAY WITH
PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR US-212 FROM LAUREL TO RED LODGE, AND I-90
FROM HARDIN TO SHERIDAN. ALTHOUGH PROGGS ARE TRENDING DOWN ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WE WILL EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO
INCLUDE THE BIG HORNS REGION THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS. MOST OF THE FORCING AND PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING. OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MORE THAN QUICK HALF INCH OF
SNOWFALL. LOOK FOR A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY EVENING AS NORTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH ARE COMMON ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS WILL
PERSIST AND PRODUCE LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE COOKE CITY ON WEST FACING
SLOPES. RECREATION IN THE BACKCOUNTRY MAY BE DIFFICULT AND
AVALANCHE DANGER MAY INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY.
MUCH LESS SNOWFALL IS FORECAST ON NORTH AND EAST FACING ASPECTS,
INCLUDING RED LODGE.
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS TO 25 BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE WILL ISSUE
A COLD ADVISORY FOR FALLON COUNTY FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SUNDAY. THOSE GOING OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE
COLD AND LIMIT EXPOSURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S WEST TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG THE MT/DAKOTA BORDER AREA.
CENTRAL AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. THIS PATTERN (KLONDIKE CHINOOK) WILL PUSH THE
COLD AIR OUT WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING GETTING TEMPS BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. THAT SAID, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AROUND MIDWEEK, WHICH IF IT OCCURS WOULD DROP TEMPS WELL BELOW OUR
CURRENT FORECASTS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES. BT
AVIATION
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KLVM WITH GUSTS 25-40
KTS BEING COMMON. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE RED LODGE AND SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE MORNING. ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS 35-50 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY. THESE WILL END AROUND MID
DAY WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING THROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED, QUICK MOVING SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO COME WITH THE
FRONT. BRIEF DETERIORATIONS FLIGHT CONDITIONS (MVFR/IFR) ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 008/028 015/040 028/047 029/044 021/043 028/049
6/S 20/U 00/B 00/E 01/B 10/B 01/E
LVM 038 008/028 016/040 026/045 028/047 029/051 033/050
9/S 20/U 00/U 00/E 01/B 00/B 12/W
HDN 041 004/021 008/039 024/045 023/039 015/040 022/047
7/S 30/U 00/B 00/E 02/W 10/B 01/E
MLS 038 001/012 003/034 023/041 018/030 011/031 018/039
2/S 10/B 00/B 00/B 12/J 10/B 01/E
4BQ 047 004/015 005/037 025/044 024/038 015/038 023/044
2/S 20/B 00/U 00/E 12/J 10/B 01/B
BHK 043 904/005 904/031 018/041 016/029 008/028 012/038
2/N 20/N 00/B 00/B 23/J 10/B 11/E
SHR 046 001/023 007/040 021/046 024/046 019/046 026/049
7/S 50/U 00/U 00/E 01/B 00/B 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11
AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 33.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 56-66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 138-169.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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