130
FXUS65 KBYZ 192006
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
206 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2022
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL THE REST OF THE DAY WILL MAINLY SEE JUST FAIR WEATHER CU.
THE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER, WITH LOWS MOSTLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TOMORROW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE MORE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA.
WITH THE RIDGE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY, THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, SO THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS A LITTLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CAN DRIFT INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL
REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE STARTING PUSH 90 DEGREES AGAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. REIMER
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL SUN/MON YIELDING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 90S). A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU
WESTERN & CENTRAL MT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
WEAK T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS EACH
OF THESE DAYS...W/ ACTIVITY PERHAPS SPREADING FURTHER EAST TO OUR
CENTRAL LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY. PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY, BUT ANY
STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY WET AS PWATS INCREASE THRU THE PERIOD.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL T-STORMS IS TUE-THU AS WEAK
TROF MOVES SLOWLY THRU THE PACNW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND AN
INCH (UP TO 1.2" PER THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN)...SO ANY STORMS ON
THESE DAYS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/ERRATIC
WINDS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE NEXT WEEK SO THERE IS CONFIDENCE HERE...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY
T-STORMS BECOME A BIT TOUGHER TO GENERATE W/O STRONGER FORCING AS
WE MOVE TO LATE AUGUST. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO THE 80S NEXT
WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN SOME 70S BY THU.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS W/ WHEN THE TROF DEPARTS...BUT COULD BE
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION FRI ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST. LOOK FOR
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. OVERALL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR A
RETURN OF RIDGING AND DRY/WARMER WX BY NEXT SAT. NO SIGN OF A
FALL-LIKE COOL DOWN YET.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. REIMER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/092 062/095 064/093 063/087 060/082 060/080 059/083
00/U 01/U 21/B 34/T 55/T 54/T 32/T
LVM 051/094 057/092 055/092 053/086 051/082 051/082 051/084
01/U 24/T 33/T 56/T 55/T 44/T 32/T
HDN 054/094 056/097 060/095 059/090 056/086 056/083 055/084
00/U 01/U 11/B 23/T 44/T 54/T 32/T
MLS 058/090 061/096 066/096 064/091 062/084 060/082 059/081
00/U 00/U 10/U 13/T 44/T 43/T 22/T
4BQ 055/089 061/095 061/093 062/089 060/085 058/081 058/079
00/U 00/U 10/U 13/T 44/T 44/T 33/T
BHK 054/086 059/094 062/094 062/089 059/082 057/080 056/079
00/U 00/U 11/U 12/T 54/T 43/T 32/T
SHR 052/092 058/095 059/093 059/089 056/084 055/082 054/081
00/U 01/U 12/T 24/T 44/T 55/T 44/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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