016
FXUS65 KBYZ 072012
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
112 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GUSTS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE 35 TO 55 MPH RANGE, STRONGEST ON
SUNDAY.
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60-75 MPH) FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF BILLINGS. STRONGEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
- LOCALLY ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. GREATEST CONCERNS IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MINIMAL PRECIP THIS WEEK.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE
PERIODS OF LOWER ELEVATION SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WARM, WINDY, AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ARRIVED FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. A FEW
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN BEARTOOTHS AND
CRAZIES MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THESE SHOWERS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ARE ONGOING WEST
OF BILLINGS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 50S AND 60S MPH OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AREAS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE GAP LOCATIONS WHERE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN
OVERNIGHT INVERSION WILL PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OTHER EXCEPTION COULD BE THE US-191
CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER THROUGH JUDITH GAP, THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS PREVENTING STRONG GUSTS IN THE 60S MPH TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE INVERSIONS ERODE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, A 700MB JET WITH
55-75 KNOTS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA, BRINGING THE
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE AREA. GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH ARE
FORECAST WEST AND NORTH OF BILLINGS, WHILE GUSTS IN AND AROUND
BILLINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S MPH. THE CHANCE FOR
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH AROUND THE BILLINGS AREA TOMORROW IS
AROUND 40%. FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST, WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG WITH FORECAST GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40S MPH.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE BEARTOOTHS. CROSS
SECTION ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT OF 700MB WINDS TO THE
WEST THAN PRIOR RUNS. DESPITE THIS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER ON
WINDS COMING DOWN THE MOUNTAIN INTO THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS,
AROUND 40%. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS IN THE 30S TO LOW 50S
MPH ALONG THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS
STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT RECREATION WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH.
FURTHER WEST, THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS WILL BE OVER THE CRAZIES,
WITH FORECAST GUSTS UP TO 90 MPH.
PUTTING ALL THE WIND TOGETHER, HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
IN FOR ALL BUT TWO FORECAST ZONES (NORTHERN PARK COUNTY AND THE
PARADISE VALLEY) NORTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS. THE WARNING THE
LIVINGSTON AREA, BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS, AND THE US-191 CORRIDOR IS
ONGOING (60-75 MPH). MEANWHILE WARNINGS FOR STILLWATER, GOLDEN
VALLEY, AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES GO INTO EFFECT AT 5 PM THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH (STRONGEST IN THE WEST). THE
WARNING FOR THE CRAZIES GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING WHILE THE
WARNING FOR THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS GOES INTO EFFECT SUNDAY
MORNING. ALL WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THOSE
TRAVELING WEST OF BILLINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR STRONG TO DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS, ESPECIALLY THOSE IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR
ALL CLIMATE SITES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL, WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. THE CONCERN
FOR GRASS FIRES REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THESE
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED LESS PRECIP WITH
THE RECENT SYSTEM. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH, BRINGING AN END TO THE STRONG WINDS. COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO START, BEFORE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS SHOWN WITH ANOTHER WAVE INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE FLOW IS SHOWN TURNING NORTH AND EAST, WHICH COULD BRING
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIGHORNS, AS WELL
AS THEIR FOOTHILLS. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FOR THE SHERIDAN AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS, WITH LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF AREA. THE LATEST PROBABILITY FOR
THE MENTIONED FOOTHILLS TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, IS 40-70%. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS 10-50% (LOWEST
CHANCE FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST).
ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO GIVE WAY TO RIDGING WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS. FLOW OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS COULD BRING PERSISTENT
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTH-WEST FACING ASPECTS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY, 30S
AND 40S TUESDAY, WARMING BACK TO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. MATOS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PLENTY OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO STRONG AT TIMES
WEST OF BILLINGS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE TODAY,
INCREASING TO 50 TO 65KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE WEST TO
NORTHWEST GUSTS 30 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL
SEE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT
TIMES. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041/068 036/049 028/041 022/049 034/059 028/044 028/045
00/N 26/W 85/J 20/N 13/W 65/J 45/J
LVM 041/059 041/051 025/036 019/047 036/058 035/045 032/046
10/N 25/W 66/J 21/N 24/W 55/J 45/J
HDN 036/069 032/050 028/042 018/049 029/061 024/044 024/047
01/N 36/W 86/J 31/B 14/W 76/J 44/J
MLS 041/067 029/042 028/041 021/044 032/058 023/039 022/041
00/N 24/W 52/J 10/B 14/W 44/J 44/J
4BQ 039/069 033/053 029/039 022/044 029/060 025/041 025/046
00/N 13/W 65/J 10/B 13/W 55/J 34/J
BHK 038/063 024/043 024/039 017/042 026/054 022/037 018/040
00/N 14/W 53/J 10/B 14/W 44/J 44/J
SHR 031/066 033/058 022/035 011/044 024/063 023/043 019/046
00/U 03/W 88/J 41/B 13/W 66/J 44/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 29-34-42-68.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR ZONES 63-65-66-141-172-228.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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