791
FXUS65 KBYZ 251548
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
948 AM MDT SUN AUG 25 2019
UPDATE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS HAVE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS OFF THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SHERIDAN COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. VERTZ
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON
SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU EASTERN MT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA, AND IN FACT AS
OF 230 AM THERE REMAINS SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE BILLINGS
AREA UNDERNEATH THE PV AXIS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS,
CARRYING SCATTERED POPS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER BEYOND 12Z, BUT
OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXISTS BEHIND THIS WAVE,
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATERS WERE STILL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PACNW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IN SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
NEXT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH BEST
CHANCES TO THE EAST OF OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS (COURTESY OF FAIRLY
STRONG DOWNSLOPING). BREEZY/MIXED NW WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THIS CONVERGENT AXIS MAY
BE A FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVER TIME,
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHERN
UPSLOPE AREAS. AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE
DAKOTAS, SO DO NOT SEE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR US, THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HEADS UP IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS
LATER TODAY.
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SEASONABLY COOL MONDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTH AND EAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING CANADIAN COLD
FRONT BY LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY, THEN MAINLY 70S
TOMORROW, AS WE MOVE INTO A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
JKL
LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT
MODELS REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS WEEK. LOOK FOR A WAVE TO TRACK OUT OF
CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS WAVE, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNS DRY
AND ANTI-CYCLONIC THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
PUNCHES THROUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN 70S AND 80S WITH
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST IN THE MID 80S.
CURRENTLY THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS WARMER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE
PRETTY WIDE ON 500MB THICKNESS PROGGS, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF TRENDS FOR NEXT SAT/SUN BOUNCE AROUND A BIT. THAT SAID, IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT US NEXT
WEEKEND. BT
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE NEXT COLD FRONT
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR
AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ALSO, NW WINDS WILL GUST
FROM 15-25 KTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR STORMS. JKL/REIMER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 052/075 049/075 048/086 055/077 053/078 054/084
2/T 40/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 21/B 11/U
LVM 080 045/076 041/076 043/086 048/079 048/078 049/084
2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 31/B 21/U
HDN 081 051/073 047/073 045/084 052/079 051/078 052/084
2/T 31/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U
MLS 080 053/071 049/070 045/080 051/075 050/074 052/081
3/T 44/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U
4BQ 081 051/072 047/069 044/080 051/077 050/075 051/080
3/T 63/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 21/B 11/U
BHK 080 051/070 046/067 043/078 048/074 047/072 048/077
2/T 34/T 20/N 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U
SHR 081 048/073 044/072 043/083 049/079 049/078 050/082
4/T 70/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 33/T 31/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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