446
FXUS65 KBYZ 040658
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1258 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRY TODAY, THE 4TH OF JULY.
- VERY WARM WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ONE, WHICH PRODUCED A LINE OF INTENSE LIGHTNING
AND RAINFALL ACROSS OUR EAST EARLIER LAST EVENING, IS EXITING
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND IS SWEEPING
ACROSS OUR CWA AT THIS TIME PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SMALL
HAIL. THESE WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH ABOUT 4-5 AM BEFORE DISSIPATING OR TRACKING INTO THE
DAKOTAS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND DRY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THERE IS JUST A VERY LOW CHANCE
(<15%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS
IN THE EVENING, THOUGH THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VIRGA. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER EASTERN MT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE UPPER 90S, WITH
SOME OF THE HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY NEARING 100
DEGREES. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE
(20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SPREADING EAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RISK OF ANY SEVERE STORM IS LOW (<10%) WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION FOR THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE FROM 80S TO LOWER 90S. ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT PERIODIC SHORT
WAVES IN THE MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (30-50%). THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BECOMES MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW PUSHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST. WHILE THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY LOW, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL. BT
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (<30% CHANCE) WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH ABOUT 11Z POSSIBLY IMPACTING
KMLS/KBHK/KEKA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO UNDER THREE MILES. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES MAY SLIGHTLY REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY OVER SITES ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AT TIMES. REDUCTIONS
IN SURFACE VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 063/094 063/086 063/088 062/092 065/089 063/090
0/U 03/T 30/B 42/T 21/U 31/U 10/U
LVM 089 055/092 055/084 054/086 055/089 056/086 054/088
0/U 03/T 41/N 53/T 21/U 22/T 11/U
HDN 092 060/095 063/088 064/090 060/092 063/091 061/091
0/U 02/W 30/B 42/T 31/U 21/U 10/U
MLS 091 064/096 065/088 063/087 060/089 063/090 062/090
0/U 02/W 30/B 56/T 41/B 22/T 21/U
4BQ 090 064/098 065/090 064/089 060/088 062/090 062/090
0/U 02/U 20/B 44/T 51/U 22/T 21/U
BHK 088 061/096 063/087 059/085 056/084 057/088 057/088
0/U 02/T 41/B 46/T 61/B 22/T 32/T
SHR 090 057/095 061/088 059/088 056/089 058/089 057/090
0/U 00/U 11/B 45/T 43/T 22/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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