447
FXUS65 KBYZ 030105
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
605 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST SLOPES OF THE
ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS (40-50+ MPH) EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS (LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER, HARLOWTON) INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU EASTERN MT
EARLY THIS EVENING, AND IN FACT THERE ARE A FEW RADAR ECHOES
SUGGESTIVE OF VIRGA AND MAYBE SPRINKLES OVER ROSEBUD AND EASTERN
BIG HORN COUNTIES. LATEST OBS NEAR FORSYTH AND MILES CITY SHOW
CLOUD BASES OF 6.5-9KFT, SO NOT JUST MID CLOUD. ANY PRECIP WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT, BUT GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS ARE BELOW 32F IN
VALLEYS EAST OF FORSYTH, CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER OUR EAST BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 04Z. SOMETHING
TO WATCH, OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT OF
WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE EAST. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
LOCKED INTO FOG OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ROSEBUD,
CUSTER, FALLON & CARTER COUNTIES (I.E. THE USUAL SPOTS IN SUCH A
PATTERN). HEADS UP FOR TRAVELERS IN THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING I-94 FROM FORSYTH EASTWARD. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS
THAN OR EQUAL TO 3 WITH STRONG INVERSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM MILES CITY TO ALZADA.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING 700 MB FLOW.
THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PERSISTENT MODERATELY STRONG (AROUND 10 MB)
IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT. WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON FOR LIVINGSTON
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM
BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON WILL SEE STRONG WIND CHANCES STARTING
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THESE
ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT, LOCAL WIND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
LOW TO MEDIUM (<50%) CONFIDENCE IN WINDS EXCEEDING 50 MPH FOR
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER. MEDIUM CHANCES (50-70%) EXIST FOR WINDS
EXCEEDING 60 MPH FOR LIVINGSTON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOW EVENT. THE NBM IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING LITTLE INTEREST IN HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WITH A
20% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN OVER 6 INCHES FOR THE HIGH PEAKS NEAR
COOKE CITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE (15-25 DEGREES) THROUGH
THURSDAY EVEN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WPC CLUSTERS ARE INDICATING THAT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT THIS TROUGH MAY LOOK LIKE BUT
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MT, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS (IFR OR LOWER)
TO K1S3, KMLS, KBHK AND K97M BETWEEN 06-18Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
OTHERWISE. LOOK FOR SW-W WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS AT KLVM
TOMORROW. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/055 036/059 034/052 030/050 034/046 025/040 024/037
00/B 00/B 01/B 10/B 01/E 11/B 11/B
LVM 038/054 037/051 032/048 030/044 031/041 020/034 016/033
00/N 11/N 12/W 10/N 13/J 22/J 11/B
HDN 029/054 031/059 029/051 028/049 029/046 022/039 020/038
00/B 00/B 02/W 21/B 01/E 22/J 22/J
MLS 023/039 028/054 028/049 028/046 029/046 023/038 019/033
10/B 00/B 01/B 10/B 00/E 11/B 11/B
4BQ 029/052 032/059 031/052 030/048 027/046 023/039 020/034
00/B 00/B 00/B 10/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 018/036 024/053 026/048 025/044 024/045 020/037 015/033
00/B 00/B 00/B 10/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 028/054 030/057 028/050 024/048 024/045 017/035 014/032
00/B 00/B 01/B 10/B 01/E 22/J 22/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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