820
FXUS65 KCYS 182334
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
434 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW, GUSTY
WINDS, AND BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-80.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CONVERSE COUNTY FOR
4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CARBON COUNTY.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINING AREAS OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT A
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, BUT LOCALIZED BANDING WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES. THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THIS BANDING IS UNCERTAIN.
- STRONG WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE WIND PRONE AREAS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOVING
INTO THE AREA RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF YESTERDAY'S WIND AND SNOW SQUALL
EVENT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN, BUT
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA, KEEPING TODAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN INITIAL FORECASTS. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING IN DEEPLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
DEVELOPING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO IT. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT (MAINLY IN THE 700 TO 500-MB LAYER),
DESPITE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IN COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ROUGHLY FROM A DOUGLAS TO
KIMBALL LINE, AND THE STRONGEST OVERRUNNING LIFT IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS CAUSING RADAR TO FILL IN ACROSS THIS AREA,
WHICH IS SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF INITIAL EXPECTATIONS. HI-RES MODELS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SETUP
TODAY, WHICH IS RESULTING IN WILD SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. THE
OFFICIAL DETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS MOSTLY GROUNDED CLOSE TO THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR QPF, BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO MESOSCALE BANDING. IN ADDITION, STRONG WINDS WILL
KICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I-80 BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE BROKEN DOWN BY
HAZARD TYPE.
SNOW SHOWERS / SQUALLS: THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY POTENT
INSTABILITY (FOR MID FEBRUARY) OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES ONCE
AGAIN, WITH SBCAPE EXCEEDING 250 J/KG. EXTREMELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ARE PRESENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE OVER THE AREA, GENERALLY
8-9C/KM WHICH IS HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORCING IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS YESTERDAY FOR SNOW SQUALLS, BUT THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE POTENT ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. AS A RESULT, THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY NOT BE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT THE INTENSITY POTENTIAL IS STILL
CERTAINLY THERE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS REACHING INTO SNOW SQUALL CRITERIA. IN ADDITION,
SOME LIGHTNING IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY WAS ADDED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-4", BUT WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR
SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS ON TOP OF THAT.
HIGH PLAINS SNOW: LIFT IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE
RANGE, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERRUNNING
THIS BOUNDARY. LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS,
EXPECT TO FIND MUCH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL BE THE KEY TO THE FORECAST, AS
THAT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCAL POINT FOR THE
MESOSCALE BANDING, AND THUS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. THE BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CONVERSE
COUNTY FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, SO THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
THERE. ELSEWHERE, THE LIFT LOOKS QUITE GOOD, BUT THIS SYSTEM IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE AND THE WINDOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT VERY LONG.
WITHOUT THE STRONG MESOSCALE BANDING, IT WILL BE HARD TO GET
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN WARNING CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING,
WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DECIDE WHICH LOCATION SHOULD GET AN
UPGRADE. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO USE A BROAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH ADDED WORDING
DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 6+ AMOUNTS. THIS IS A VERY
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA,
WHICH ALWAYS PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SURPRISES. SNOW SHOULD
WIND DOWN THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SOME MODEST FRONTOGENESIS COULD
LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A
CONCERN. EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD AND ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT
COMPARED TO MOST EVENTS WITH THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW. EXPECT AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. LOCATIONS
THAT MANAGE TO GET THAT 6+ INCHES OF SNOW MAY SEE ENOUGH WIND TO SEE
VISIBILITY DROP BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
HIGH WINDS: WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY, THE HIGH
WIND THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WIND PRONE AREAS. WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY SSW OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES, BUT BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO WESTERLY WINDS AND A RAPID
INCREASE IN SPEEDS. A 700-MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WYOMING GAP AND INTO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO. SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW A SHORT WINDOW WITH 700-MB
WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS, AND A STRONG NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED MSLP GRADIENT THROUGH THE ARLINGTON AND I-80 SUMMIT AREAS.
THIS ISN'T A VERY TYPICAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTION FOR
TRADITIONAL HIGH WIND EVENTS, SO SOME USUAL WIND PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS HIGH AS THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SUFFICIENT
EVIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WATCHES TO WARNINGS AS
WELL AS ADD THE ARLINGTON AREA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THURSDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WINDY THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES: MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM
TONIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE T GET OUT OF
THE TEENS. A MILDER AIRMASS WILL STILL BE PRESENT WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH WEST WINDS INSTEAD OF THE NNW TO THE EAST. THIS
AIRMASS SHOULD SPILL INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM
CHEYENNE EASTWARD, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 20S HERE. WINDS WILL EASE
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE SKIES CLEAR OUT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE TO FAVOR SUB-ZERO VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
THOSE WHO HAVE FRESH SNOW COVER PRESENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF ACTIVE AS A PACIFIC LOW, WEAKENING
AND BRANCHING OFF FROM THE STRONGER LOW IN WESTERN CANADA, WILL
SWING ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BRING A RISK OF SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
TOTALS FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASING WINDS TO BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY. THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL TAKE BACK
CONTROL, BRINGING BACK A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO AT LEAST FLATTEN THIS FEATURE ON
TUESDAY ALONGSIDE BRINGING ANOTHER RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE
CWA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SYSTEM SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AND
MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM TO START THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY. THE DIRECTION AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT ITS PATH WILL AT LEAST GRAZE OUR REGION AND ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY. CURRENT TOTALS FROM
THE NBM ARE AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF INCH, PRIMARILY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80, WITH A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL. PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST HALF AN INCH OR MORE ARE ON THE RISE THOUGH, WITH THE NBM
NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW A 30-50% PROBABILITY FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR, AND IF THE SYSTEM CAN TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH THEN
WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT NOTEWORTHY
SNOWFALL. THAT BEING SAID, FORCING ISN'T GOING TO BE THE BEST,
AND PWAT VALUES ARE COMING IN AROUND OR JUST UNDER NORMAL, SO A
LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ALSO GOING LIMIT HOW MUCH
WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO
HELP KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
SUB-FREEZING HIGHS EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW SITES MAY BE ABLE TO
PEAK JUST AROUND FREEZING FOR THE DAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OUR
TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE, BUT
ANOTHER QUICK SHORTWAVE ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE AT SOME BREEZY
WINDS ON SATURDAY. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE THOUGH REMAINS UNIMPRESSED
AND THE BEST 700MB WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, SO NOT EXPECTING ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT AT THIS
TIME.
MONDAY TEMPERATURES ROCKET BACK UP AS WE SEE THE RETURN OF 40'S
AND 50'S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS BACK TO KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP
OF THE 60'S FOR THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOES WHAT IT'S BEST AT.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRY AND MAKE A DENT
IN THIS WESTERN RIDGE, BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY FLATTEN OUT A BIT AT BEST AND JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE RIDGING INCOMING. BUT FOR TUESDAY THE
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE ALONGSIDE
INCREASED 700MB WINDS MAY BRING BACK OUR HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
FOR THE DAY. IN HOUSE GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM, WITH PROBABILITIES ALREADY AROUND 50-60% FOR GUSTS 58+
MPH AT OUR USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MAY ALSO FAVOR A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THOUGH WITH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT THAT
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN IN
NATURE, BUT WE'LL TAKE ANYTHING WE CAN GET AT THIS POINT.
FINALLY DON'T EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO DO MUCH TO OUR
TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE 40'S TO 50'S WITH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD LOW 60'S FOR
THE DAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
MIXED-BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
IN THE EARLY STAGES OF SNOWFALL WITH SCATTERED RETURNS ON RADAR,
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AND FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE SNOW AT VARYING TIMES AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. THUS, CIGS AND VIS MAY DROP AS LOW AS IFR OR LIFR IN ANY
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 25-
40 KNOT RANGE. THE OTHER THING OF AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES
OF SNOW SQUALLS, PRIMARILY FOR KLAR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY
SQUALL ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING, NOT INCLUDING KCYS, WHICH MAY
BRING VIS DOWN TO LESS THAN 1/2SM ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ101.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ102-
103.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ104-109-
110-114.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ106>108.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR WYZ110-116-117.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR WYZ112.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR NEZ002-095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR NEZ003-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NEZ019-020-
096.
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RZ
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