278  
FXUS65 KCYS 051119  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
519 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
CURRENT RETURNS FROM KCYS RADAR SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY  
ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS AREN'T IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW TO  
HANDLE THESE SHOWERS. THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING BY  
SUNRISE, BUT OTHER CAMS KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH  
LATE MORNING. THIS SETUP LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WHERE  
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-  
MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS, OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE  
CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.  
 
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STUCK IN THE SAME POSITION AS THE LAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW  
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN KEEPING THE  
WEATHER IN THE REGION QUITE ACTIVE WITH DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE  
INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY, MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL  
BE SHIFTED FURTHER WEST BACK INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL RAISE PWATS  
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE GEFS MEAN DEPICTING PWATS  
OF 1 INCH AND HIGHER FOR PLACES LIKE CHEYENNE, SCOTTSBLUFF, AND  
CHADRON. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST PLACES,  
HOWEVER, WEAK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN  
COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND WYOMING MAY MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVELS, AS WELL  
AS INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS  
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE  
BEING AT THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE  
STORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS  
ACROSS THE CWA WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE,  
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ONE OF THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THESE STORMS.  
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL, HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS  
MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES  
OVER 1500 J/KG AND FAIRLY DECENT SFC-6KM SHEAR. LASTLY, CANNOT RULE  
OUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THESE STORMS WHICH COULD CAUSE  
MINOR PONDING OF WATER IN MORE URBAN AREAS.  
 
SIMILAR CONCERNS ARE PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS  
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, WITH THE GREATEST  
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND  
WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO  
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. FAIRLY MODEST INSTABILITY, LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR IS PRESENT  
SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE  
STRONG WINDS AS MODELS STILL SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. AGAIN,  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE  
HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THESE STORMS AS MONSOONAL PWATS LOOK TO PEAK ON  
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE LOW-LEVELS LOOK TO BE A BIT MOISTER ON WEDNESDAY  
COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP FACILITATE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN, SOME MINOR FLOODING LOOKS LIKE IT  
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH CONTINUED MONSOON MOISTURE. SURFACE  
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH  
EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION  
MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS SHOWING  
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
WYOMING AND CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO ABOUT A  
HALF INCH OUT BY RAWLINS. AMPLE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS COULD LEAD  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHER PWATS TRANSLATING  
EAST INTO KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RECENT MOISTURE BEING  
RECYCLED INTO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  
 
PRETTY HOT FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  
700MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +20C. LOOKING AT TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES  
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S OVER OUR WYOMING  
SIDE. COOL DOWN SUNDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA  
FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE FRONT  
STALLED ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED VCTS WORDING IN TAFS...ESPECIALLY  
THE NEBRASKA SITES AS WELL AS KCYS. WILL NARROW DOWN TIMING ON THE  
18Z TAFS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS AS DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY.  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG, ERRATIC  
WINDS. INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER THE  
COMING DAYS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
MORE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  
START TO CREEP BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HOTTER AND DRIER  
CONDITIONS RETURN.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SF  
LONG TERM...GCC  
AVIATION...GCC  
FIRE WEATHER...SF  
 
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