365
FXUS65 KCYS 092156
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
256 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS ISSUED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
WITH SNOW NOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE REGION ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF
VERY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR, A QUIET EVENING IS EXPECTED IN THE
POST TROUGH ENVIRONMENT. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWS FOR FURTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WE ACTUALLY SEE
SOME LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED
BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES, WITH PORTIONS OF THE CWA FEELING LIKE
SINGLE DIGITS LOWS AND EVEN COLDER, INCLUDING CHEYENNE, RAWLINS,
AND LARAMIE ALL EXPECTED TO HAVE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. BUNDLE UP!
ON THE NOTE OF WINDS, THESE WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, AS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WON'T BE AS STOUT AS
NORMAL. CRAIG TO CASPER 850MB GRADIENTS IN EXCESS OF 60 METERS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME GUSTIER SPOTS FOR OUR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS, AND WHILE 700MB WINDS MAY ONLY MAX OUT AROUND 50
KNOTS OR SO, FAVORABLE DOWNWARD OMEGA VALUES SHOULD HELP TO
BRING SOME OF THIS TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE KNOWING OUR GUSTY
LOCATIONS, UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCHES TO WARNINGS, VALID
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGHS AROUND FREEZING THROUGH THE MID 40'S, WITH
MINIMAL OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS WE BEGIN TO SEE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN US.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS MOSTLY INACTIVE. TUESDAY AND
AGAIN THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY AND COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS SHOW THE THE RIDGE AXIS TO BE PARKED
OVER CALIFORNIA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW
THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREAS BRINGING INCREASED WINDS. THE
700 MB MODELS SHOWS A WEAKER JEST SET UP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
NEARLY 50 KT WINDS AND A DECENT OMEGA SIGNAL. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. 45-65% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING
CHANCES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW BUT AMOUNTS 20% PROBABILITIES FOR 1
INCH OF SNOW.
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT HEADED ITS WAY TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED WINDS AGAIN AND SLOWLY
COOLING THE AREA BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS DO
HOWEVER, BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MID-WEEK
WITH CLUSTERS SHOWING THE DIVERGENCE TO BE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM. ONE MODEL WANTS TO BRING IN A BACKDOOR TROUGH WHILE
ANOTHER MODEL JUST HAS STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS. REGARDLESS OF THAT,
BOTH ARE SUGGESTING A DECENT COOL OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IN-HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOW THAT BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD BE
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH MODERATE (40-60%) CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BFF IS
REPORTING SNOW, HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBY IS STILL VFR. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LAST A SHORT TIME THROUGH ONLY 20Z (30% CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING). WINDS ARE PER USUALLY THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ALL SITES SEEING WINDS OVER 10 KTS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVER 12
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD (80%+ CONFIDENCE).
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR WYZ106.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ116-
117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...WFOCYS
AVIATION...WFOCYS
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