090  
FXUS65 KCYS 040529  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
1129 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING ACROSS CHEYENNE. WITH A DRY  
SURFACE LAYER IN PLACE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES, STRONG WINDS WERE  
TO BE EXPECTED, EVEN WITH THE MOST MARGINAL OF STORMS. EVEN WITH  
STRONG INVERTED-V PROFILES, IT TURNED OUT THAT WE STILL NEEDED THE  
EXTRA HELP FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO ACCELERATE THE WINDS OFF THE  
SLOPES AND INTO OUR COMMUNITIES WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOTED TO HAVE  
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND JUST TO THE WEST. THE  
ONLY EXCEPTION WAS IN LARAMIE, WHERE THE SNOWYS LIKELY PLAYED A  
ROLE.  
 
LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT, EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP NOTED  
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD IN THE EVENING.  
 
A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW BRINING  
ANOTHER BURST OF ENERGY TO THE REGION AND INCREASED BULK SHEAR  
VALUES, THOUGH MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG A NIOBRARA-SIOUX-DAWES LINE,  
WHERE THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.  
OTHERWISE, WITH A DRY SURFACE LAYER STILL IN PLACE AND INVERTED-V  
PROFILES NOTED IN MOST SOUNDINGS, THE WIND THREAT WILL BE THE  
MAIN CONCERN, EVEN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DON'T  
SEEM LIKE MUCH ON RADAR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
CURRENT KCYS RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOW SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS  
GREATLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SINCE THE  
STATIONARY FRONT/DRY LINE FEATURE HAS PUSHED EAST ACROSS MOST OF  
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT WINDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE NORTH  
AND NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR  
LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING, STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE  
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS  
A FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH WEST OF THE  
I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED GUSTY WIND WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS  
EVENING THOUGH MOST GUSTS HAVE NOT BEEN CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS PRESENT. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW  
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING  
SKIES.  
 
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF ZONAL  
FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF  
I-25 WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOWER  
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. DUE TO A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER,  
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME  
WITH PORTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO BETTER  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. HIGHS IN THE 80S (WEST) TO NEAR 90  
(EAST) WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG  
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY  
NIGHT DUE TO MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
DECENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE  
SATURDAY AND SHOULD PRODUCE PRETTY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS IT  
DOES SO. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE  
SHORTWAVE WITH SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE  
MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH  
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT  
WITH A PRETTY GOOD COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS EARLY ON MONDAY.  
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS OVER THE CWA  
MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SE WY THIS AFTERNOON AND  
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS LIKELY  
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE  
AREA WITH ANY CONCERNS LIMITED TO CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OVER  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY,  
ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS  
40 TO 45 MPH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHER EAST, HIGHER RELATIVELY HUMIDITY  
VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
HIGH WATER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS  
WEEKEND DUE TO RAPID MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT. HOWEVER, CURRENT RIVER  
FORECASTS SHOW THE AREA RIVERS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK  
DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FORE WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CARBON  
AND ALBANY COUNTIES, SO WILL MONITOR GAUGE LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK TO SEE HOW RIVERS RESPOND.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...AB  
SHORT TERM...TJT  
LONG TERM...RE  
AVIATION...RE  
FIRE WEATHER...TJT  
HYDROLOGY...TJT  
 
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