788
FXUS65 KCYS 271725
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MST THU FEB 27 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST THU FEB 27 2020
..PLEASE SEE LATEST 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATE ISSUED AT 349 AM MST THU FEB 27 2020
WINDS HAVE STAYED BELOW WARNING LEVELS OVER THE SUMMIT AND OUT BY
ARLINGTON SO FAR THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
WARNING EARLY AS THE WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DECREASE EVEN
MORE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST THU FEB 27 2020
FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE DEAL WITH
STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY AND THEN TIMING ON A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CURRENTLY...A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING ANALYZED IN
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A 10MB SLPRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN CRAIG AND CASPER. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 750 AND
800MB WINDS NEAR 50KTS ACROSS THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND 12Z THIS MORNING. THE EMKAY UPR SITE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
DECREASING WINDS...BUT CYS VWP SHOWING WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE. UP TO 45KTS
NOW RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE...SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
GOING THIS MORNING TIL 12Z.
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE
RANGES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SHOWERS
MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER
18Z.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST THU FEB 27 2020
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WE STAY IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. COULD HAVE ANOTHER BRIEF HIGH
WIND EVENT SATURDAY AS CRAIG TO CASPER 850/700MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS
APPROACH 60MTRS. CERTAINLY LOOKS GOOD FOR BORDEAUX AS 750MB WINDS
AROUND 55KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT OVER BORDEAUX.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE WYOMING/COLORADO
STATE LINE BY 18Z SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ECMWF SHOWS A FASTER SOLUTION
WITH PRECIP BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ROUGHLY
6-12 HOURS SLOWER. GFS SHOWING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES GETTING
CLOSE TO .75 INCHES OF LIQUID WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING AROUND .3
INCHES. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES -12 TO -14C....LOOKING AT 15 TO 1
RATIOS...SO ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 11 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKING LIKELY
FOR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE.
SNOW BAND SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM SIDNEY TO RAWLINS
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE SLOWER ONSET FROM
THE GFS...THIS AREA COULD STILL BE SNOWING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY GOING TO NEED SOME WINTER HEADLINES. WILL WAIT
ANOTHER DAY...BUT WANT TO GET THE WATCH OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING AT
THE LATEST FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO MAY BE GOING OUT TO THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ONE MAY HAVE STRONGER
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS GFS 700MB WINDS UP NEAR 40-45KTS WITH
THE SNOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 27 2020
WYOMING TAFS...VFR. WIND GUSTS TO 33 KNOTS UNTIL 02Z.
NEBRASKA TAFS...MVFR AT ALLIANCE UNTIL 19Z, THEN VFR. WIND GUSTS
TO 28 KNOTS UNTIL 01Z.
VFR AT ALLIANCE UNTIL 20Z, THEN MVFR UNTIL 22Z, THEN VFR. WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS UNTIL 22Z.
VFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY. WIND GUSTS TO 38 KNOTS UNTIL 01Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST THU FEB 27 2020
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. EXPECTING SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TODAY FOR THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...MOST OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY
WITH DECREASING WIND GUSTS. WE STAY IN A RATHER WINDY PATTERN AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF OUR AREA AND WE STAY IN NORTHWEST
WINDFLOW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COULD GET NEAR CRITICAL
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. A
WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
AT LEAST 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING
CONSIDERABLY MORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
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