252
FXUS65 KCYS 112346
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
545 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH EXPECTED, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
- VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
TODAY WILL MARK THE LAST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, 'CALM BEFORE
THE WINDS', PRIOR TO THE WINDS STRENGTHENING LATER THIS EVENING AS A
70-80 KNOT 700MB JET SLIDES IN AND TAKES A FIRM HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, MORE ON THAT IN A BIT.
BUT FIRST, ENJOY THE RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA FOR
MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S EAST OF I-25 AND 50S TO THE WEST.
NOW, ONTO THE MAIN EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THURSDAY WILL
MARK THE START OF A PROLONGED HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
700MB JET MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND BY THE AFTERNOON, 700MB WINDS WILL TOP OUT
NEAR 90 KNOTS. THIS COUPLED WITH AMPLE SUBSIDENCE, NEGATIVE OMEGA
(GFS), WILL MIX THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AND MAKE
FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS EVENT. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR KNOWN WIND PRONES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING MAY SEE GUSTS TOPPING OUT
NEAR 100 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE WINDIER SECTIONS ALONG I-25 AND I-
80. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE HIGH WINDS,
BUT IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT AND 850MB AND
700MB THAT WILL ALSO AID IN THE INTENSITY. SOME OF OUR IN-HOUSE
GUIDANCE THAT WE LOOK AT IS THE CRAIG (CAG) TO CASPER (CPR) HEIGHT
GRADIENT, BOTH AT 850MB AND 700MB, WHICH CONTINUE TO MAX OUT JUST
OVER 100 METERS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE VALUES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND ARE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME, WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE
THAT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
FOR THIS EVENT. ALL THIS THAT ALREADY THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED
COMBINED WITH A TEXTBOOK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE, CONFIRMS THAT THE
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SO, TAKING A LOOK AT SOME OTHER IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE, ARLINGTON AND
BORDEAUX HAVE AROUND A 90/95% PROBABILITY OF SEEING HIGH WINDS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE KNOWN WIND PRONES WILL NOT BE IMMUNE TO
THIS WIND EVENT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE. SO, GUSTS TO 80
MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND GUSTS TO 70 MPH FOR MANY LOCATIONS
IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING, TURNING THE WINDS NORTHERLY FOR
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, ALL BUT
SHUTTING OFF THE HIGH WINDS IN THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL NOT
TOTALLY SHUTDOWN IN THESE LOCATIONS AND REMAIN GUSTY AS THE 700MB
JET PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER, MANY LOCATIONS ALONG I-25 AND TO
THE WEST WILL NOT ESCAPE THE HIGH WINDS AS THEY WILL CONTINUE,
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAKER THEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INTO THE WEEKEND DUE
TO A PERSISTENT 70 KNOT 700MB JET AND AMPLE SUBSIDENCE. THE 'WIND
SWITCH' WILL FINALLY TURN OFF LATE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA. SO, ALL THE HIGH WIND WATCHES THAT WERE OUT DURING THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS, STARTING/ENDING AT
DIFFERING TIMES AND DIFFERING IN LENGTHS.
WITH ALL THIS WIND TALK OUT OF THE WAY, THERE IS ONE OTHER MAJOR
THING OF CONCERN, FIRE WEATHER. AS WE'VE BEEN DRY FOR MOST OF THE
YEAR, FUELS HAVE BEEN RIPE, EVEN WITH THE PRECIPITATION THAT WE
RECENTLY SEEN WHICH ISN'T ENOUGH TO LIMIT THOSE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SO, WITH STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND RIPE FUELS, ANY
SPARK MAY DEVELOP A FIRE THAT SPREADS RAPIDLY. SO WE HAVE RED FLAG
WARNINGS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE FROM 11AM TO 9PM THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF ACTIVE AS A SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION AND CLEARS OUT THE STRONG WINDS WE'VE BEEN SEEING, BUT
ALSO BRINGS COLD TEMPERATURES ALONGSIDE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COMES RIGHT BACK IN, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES UP FROM BELOW AVERAGE RIGHT BACK TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH WINDS ON THE RISE AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AS MENTIONED, SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WE'LL SEE A STOUT
TROUGH AND VERY STRONG COLD FRONT DIVE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
QPF TOTALS ON THE RISE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, IT'S BECOMING LIKELY
WE'LL SEE AREA WIDE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL START OFF AS RAIN OR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING FULLY TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY. AND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 30'S
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SURGE OF COLD AIR, IT'S MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT THAT THIS WILL REMAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY
NIGHT. BUT DON'T EXPECT THE COLD TO STICK AROUND FOR LONG, AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIGHT BACK TO WARM US UP WITH HIGHS
ALREADY INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S BY MONDAY, AND WIDESPREAD 60'S
AND 70'S EXPECTED BY TUESDAY UNDER A VERY STRONG AND SLOW MOVING
WESTERN US HIGH. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FLIRT
WITH RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM NEXT
WEDNESDAY, SO PREPARE FOR MORE RECORD SETTING WARMTH IN THE
FUTURE. MEANWHILE, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE USUAL BREEZY
WINDS FOR THE REGION, WITH IN-HOUSE GUIDANCE PICKING UP ON
CHANCES FOR HIGH WIND WARNING (58+ MPH) LEVEL CRITERIA FOR THE
USUAL WIND PRONE LOCATIONS (BORDEAUX, ARLINGTON), WITH
PROBABILITIES UP TO 60-75% ALREADY FOR TUESDAY. BUT ALONGSIDE
THE WARMTH AND WINDS COMES RED FLAG CONCERNS, AND RH VALUES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE TEENS BY TUESDAY, WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES
JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM. LOOK FOR WINDS AND A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT TO BE OUR MAIN CONCERNS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, SO THE USUAL FOR THIS WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS
DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: MOSTLY A STRONG WIND FORECAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. LLWS WILL BECOME MORE OF A
PROBLEM AFTER 04Z AS MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP, WITH
THE SHEAR LAYER DOWN TO 1500 FEET AGL AT TIMES AFTER 10Z FOR KLAR
AND KCYS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AT EACH TERMINAL WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 TO 65 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TERMINALS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ101-103>107-109-113-115>118.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR WYZ102-108-119.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ110.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...TJT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page