470
FXUS65 KCYS 142350
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING - FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
STATIONARY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CO, WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST CO. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY, WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S.
WINDS WERE VARIABLE 5-15 KT.
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS UT,
WY AND CO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS CO. THE COMBINATION OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SBCAPE UP TO 200 J/KG MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST CARBON AND SOUTHWEST ALBANY COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER THE SNOWY AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGES. OUTSIDE
THESE ZONES, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOWY
AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGES, AS WELL AS THE NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOR
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN
NE PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR
ARLINGTON/ELK MOUNTAIN AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE, 3 TO 8 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF CARBON COUNTY, AND 12 TO 18 INCHES FOR THE SNOWY RANGE.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY - TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT WED APR 14 2021
A COOL & UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK W/ LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS SUCH, THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN &
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR QUITE SOME TIME W/ ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN/
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS NE PANHANDLE TERMINALS WITH BKN TO
OVC CEILINGS AROUND 3-6 KFT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM BRINGING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA APPROACHES. SNOW SHOWERS WITH
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR NE PANHANDLE
TERMINALS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED OVER SE WY TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE VISIBILITY LOWERS
WITH PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND PERSISTENT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KCYS AND KLAR. SNOW SHOWERS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KRWL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE EAST
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED DUE TO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL, COLD
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY
FOR WYZ101-102.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ103>109-112-
115-117>119.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ114-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ113.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ110.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY
FOR NEZ095.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY
FOR NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-096.
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
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