278
FXUS65 KCYS 051119
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
519 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
CURRENT RETURNS FROM KCYS RADAR SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS AREN'T IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW TO
HANDLE THESE SHOWERS. THE HRRR SHOWS PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING BY
SUNRISE, BUT OTHER CAMS KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THIS SETUP LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WHERE
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-
MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS, OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STUCK IN THE SAME POSITION AS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND A LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN KEEPING THE
WEATHER IN THE REGION QUITE ACTIVE WITH DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY, MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BE SHIFTED FURTHER WEST BACK INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL RAISE PWATS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE GEFS MEAN DEPICTING PWATS
OF 1 INCH AND HIGHER FOR PLACES LIKE CHEYENNE, SCOTTSBLUFF, AND
CHADRON. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST PLACES,
HOWEVER, WEAK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND WYOMING MAY MOISTEN THE LOW-LEVELS, AS WELL
AS INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
BEING AT THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONSISTENTLY SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE,
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ONE OF THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THESE STORMS.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL, HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS
MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OVER 1500 J/KG AND FAIRLY DECENT SFC-6KM SHEAR. LASTLY, CANNOT RULE
OUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THESE STORMS WHICH COULD CAUSE
MINOR PONDING OF WATER IN MORE URBAN AREAS.
SIMILAR CONCERNS ARE PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY. SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND
WYOMING. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FAIRLY MODEST INSTABILITY, LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR IS PRESENT
SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG WINDS AS MODELS STILL SHOW INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. AGAIN,
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THESE STORMS AS MONSOONAL PWATS LOOK TO PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY. EVEN THE LOW-LEVELS LOOK TO BE A BIT MOISTER ON WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP FACILITATE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN, SOME MINOR FLOODING LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
THURSDAY LOOKS ACTIVE WITH CONTINUED MONSOON MOISTURE. SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
EAST AND SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION
MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 1400 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG IN THE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO ABOUT A
HALF INCH OUT BY RAWLINS. AMPLE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS COULD LEAD
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHER PWATS TRANSLATING
EAST INTO KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH RECENT MOISTURE BEING
RECYCLED INTO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRETTY HOT FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
700MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +20C. LOOKING AT TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
IN THE PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S OVER OUR WYOMING
SIDE. COOL DOWN SUNDAY AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED VCTS WORDING IN TAFS...ESPECIALLY
THE NEBRASKA SITES AS WELL AS KCYS. WILL NARROW DOWN TIMING ON THE
18Z TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG, ERRATIC
WINDS. INCREASED MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER THE
COMING DAYS. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED FOR MID-WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
START TO CREEP BACK IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SF
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