183
FXUS65 KCYS 031201
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT MOSTLY IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...NEAR SIDNEY. MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS MOVING NORTHEAST BETWEEN CHEYENNE AND
SCOTTSBLUFF WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED OVER THE
LAST HOUR. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS
MORNING, WITH THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
FORECAST TO NUDGE EAST JUST OUTSIDE OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERALL,
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO MODERATE LIGHT RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH SUNRISE.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, PRETTY TYPICAL JULY PATTERN SETTING UP
ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 700MB TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH VALUES BETWEEN
15C TO 18C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. WITH WEAK WINDS, ANY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAYBE EVEN
INCREASE A BIT DUE TO SOME RETURN FLOW OFF THE GREAT PLAINS. IN
THIS PATTERN, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN
INITIATION OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND/OR THE SNOWY RANGE, SO
KEPT POP OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY NEAR 15% ALSO. FORCING WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH FORCING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
TO INITIATE CONVECTION WITH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE. CAPE WILL
BE PRESENT EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
EASTERN WYOMING. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
(CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AT THIS HOUR) LIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING, SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING THIS TIME AROUND. WITH MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES,
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THIS GENERAL AREA AROUND CHADRON AND
ALLIANCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING AS FAR
WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED
(15% TO 20% CHANCE). SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE 4TH, BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND AS ANOTHER MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIGS SOUTH
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND SEVERE WEATHER, TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM LARAMIE TO CHEYENNE AND OVER
TOWARDS SIDNEY NEBRASKA. SPC HAS INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING, INCLUDING CHEYENNE. SIMILAR CHANCES FOR
SEVERE ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENHANCED
MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE, WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND
PRODUCE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE. KEPT POP AROUND 15% AROUND THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND THE ADJACENT VALLEYS/HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY
REAL FORCING PRESENT ON SUNDAY WILL BE TERRAIN INCLUDED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING, SO
KEPT POP MINIMAL FOR NOW. AGAIN, THIS MAY CHANGE QUICKLY AS
THERE STILL WILL BE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
MONDAY...SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO SUNDAY, WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-25 WHERE CONVERGENCE AT
LOW LEVELS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
TUESDAY...BENEFICIAL RAIN APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES MARKEDLY, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT,
ALSO KNOWN AS AN ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATION, MOVES OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK
HEATING, SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO LARAMIE LINE, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FURTHER
WEST IN THE DRIER AIRMASS.
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AND WITH DECREASING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS, EXPECT A
CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES
OVERHEAD NEAR PEAK HEATING, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRODUCING
SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, ALSO KNOWN AS CIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS, EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR
VIS ARE POSSIBLE. KEPT PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL WESTERN NEBRASKA
TERMINALS BETWEEN 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AND 02Z SATURDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...TJT
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