935  
FXUS65 KCYS 190308  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
908 PM MDT MON MAR 18 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
AS A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH, MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING  
IN OVER THE CWA. WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE,  
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH LARAMIE  
RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM AND WILL MOVE  
THROUGH QUICKLY SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH ITS  
PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TOMORROW. AS A RIDGE  
TAKES OVER THE AREA AGAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AND  
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT BY THE END OF TOMORROW.  
 
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA  
PANHANDLE. SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS HAVE LED TO RISING  
CREEKS AND SMALL RIVERS. WATER MAY BE COVERING SOME COUNTY ROADS.  
AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES, MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN  
ISSUE. THE AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ALL  
OF SIOUX, DAWES, AND BOX BUTTE COUNTIES. PLEASE SEE THE ADVISORY  
FOR THE MOST RECENT UPDATES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE  
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH  
INCREASED SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SUNSHINE AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES  
ARE CONCERNING WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. MINOR FLOODING IS  
POSSIBLE ALONG CREEKS AND RIVERS AND NEAR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD IS A DEEP TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO AFFECT  
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A  
SIMILAR SYSTEM TO OUR RECENT BLIZZARD. MODELS INDICATE THE LOW MAY  
ALREADY BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS POSITION  
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR INTO  
WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. THIS WILL NOT BE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR A  
WINTER SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE HEAVY  
RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN  
WYOMING MAY SEE SOME RAIN AS WELL, BUT MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER  
SIGNAL OVER THE PANHANDLE. WITH LARGE SNOW PACKS STILL ON THE  
GROUND, FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. HEAVY RAIN ON A SNOW PACK  
WILL QUICKLY TURN TO RUNOFF AND COULD CREATE PROBLEMS. MODELS ARE  
NOT IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE ORIENTATION AND  
EXTENT OF THE LOW SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
WYOMING TAFS...VFR. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT CHEYENNE FROM 15Z TO  
01Z.  
 
NEBRASKA TAFS...VFR. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT ALLIANCE,  
SCOTTSBLUFF AND SIDNEY FROM 15Z TO 01Z. CEILINGS LOWERING TO  
4000 FEET AGL AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE FROM 15Z TO 01Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
WINDS REMAIN CALM AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXISTS OVER THE  
AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CW  
LONG TERM...CW  
AVIATION...RUBIN  
FIRE WEATHER...CW  
 
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