793  
FXUS65 KCYS 232338  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
538 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STRONG WIND GUSTS 50-60MPH POSSIBLE IN THE WIND PRONE AND GAP  
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WY TODAY MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST HIGH WIND WARNING STATEMENT FOR  
FURTHER DETAILS.  
 
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS RETURN  
SUNDAY. A MUCH WARMER, MILDER WEEK AHEAD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGE OVERTAKES THE REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2024  
 
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT  
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF CARBON AND ALBANY  
COUNTIES WHERE RAWLINS AND DIXON HAVE REPORTED PERIODS OF LIGHT  
SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER  
ACROSS THE COUNTIES COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE LARAMIE  
RANGE THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND IN ITS WAKE SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE  
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF  
SOME 50 KNOT WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN ALLOWING FOR SOME WIND  
GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS.  
SIGNALS SUGGEST A BORA TYPE WIND EVENT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING  
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THANKS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF COLORADO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
STAY ELEVATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
EVENING AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW  
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS ARE WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL  
FOR QUICK FUSED HIGH WIND WARNING. CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK  
ON TRACK WITH ZONES IN THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE  
PERIODICALLY GUSTED UP TO 58 MPH, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ARLINGTON  
WIND PRONE ZONE. EXPECTING THIS HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE ON  
TIME THIS EVENING.  
 
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE FLOW  
ALOFT BECOMES AN ACTIVE NW FLOW WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.  
MODELS STILL SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY BEING THE  
STRONGEST WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. QUESTION WILL BE  
WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SURFACE REGARDING MOISTURE ADVECTION  
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE  
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, BUT HOW STRONG OR SEVERE THESE STORMS  
BECOME WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN GENERATE  
PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVES ARRIVAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2024  
 
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND AND START OF THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED UNTIL UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WEEKEND, TWO SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES  
INCREASING TO THE 5-6C RANGE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO  
THE MID-60S TO MID-70S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW-60S WEST OF  
THE LARAMIE RANGE. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH, ENHANCED LIFT WILL  
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WEAK CAPE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE,  
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS, WITH SHOWERS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE  
CWA. SIMILARLY, ON SUNDAY ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.  
LITTLE TO NO CAPE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION,  
SO THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN. AS THE TROUGH PASSES  
ALOFT, 700MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE  
REGION, LEADING TO CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-  
60S ON SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL BE FAVORED AT THE WIND PRONE  
REGIONS OF ARLINGTON AND BORDEAUX ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-70S.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE CALMER, WARMER WEATHER  
RETURNS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ON MONDAY, THE  
SECOND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION LEADING TO  
BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE  
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE  
RATHER DRY, LEADING TO LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.  
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE UPPER-60S TO MID-  
70S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE  
POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE  
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S ACROSS THE REGION.  
MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO  
REACH 80F AS 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10C. MOSTLY CALM WINDS WILL  
PRESENT UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES. IT WILL BE A VERY NICE MID-WEEK, BUT THINGS BEGIN TO CHANCE  
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS INTO A TROUGH  
FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN  
LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS TIME, WITH THE ECMWF BEING A BIT SLOWER  
WITH GETTING THE TROUGH INTO THE REGION AND THE GFS BEING MUCH  
QUICKER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR, BUT ENJOY THE NICE, WARM  
WEEK AHEAD!  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2024  
 
A TROUGH ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE  
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WITH LESS WIND FOR  
FRIDAY.  
 
WYOMING TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 7000 TO  
10000 FEET WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING, THEN SKIES WILL BECOME  
MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GUST TO 48 KNOTS AT RAWLINS UNTIL 06Z,  
AND TO 28 KNOTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, TO 45 KNOTS AT LARAMIE UNTIL  
06Z, AND TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, AND TO 45 KNOTS AT  
CHEYENNE UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY.  
 
NEBRASKA TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 8000 TO  
10000 FEET WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATER TONIGHT, THEN SKIES WILL  
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GUST TO 45 KNOTS UNTIL 09Z, THEN  
GUST TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 09Z.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-  
104>107-110-116-117.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...AW  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...RUBIN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WY Page
The Nexlab NE Page Main Text Page