090
FXUS65 KCYS 040529
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1129 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020
A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING ACROSS CHEYENNE. WITH A DRY
SURFACE LAYER IN PLACE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES, STRONG WINDS WERE
TO BE EXPECTED, EVEN WITH THE MOST MARGINAL OF STORMS. EVEN WITH
STRONG INVERTED-V PROFILES, IT TURNED OUT THAT WE STILL NEEDED THE
EXTRA HELP FROM THE LARAMIE RANGE TO ACCELERATE THE WINDS OFF THE
SLOPES AND INTO OUR COMMUNITIES WITH ALL LOCATIONS NOTED TO HAVE
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND JUST TO THE WEST. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WAS IN LARAMIE, WHERE THE SNOWYS LIKELY PLAYED A
ROLE.
LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT, EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP NOTED
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD IN THE EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW BRINING
ANOTHER BURST OF ENERGY TO THE REGION AND INCREASED BULK SHEAR
VALUES, THOUGH MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG A NIOBRARA-SIOUX-DAWES LINE,
WHERE THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WITH A DRY SURFACE LAYER STILL IN PLACE AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES NOTED IN MOST SOUNDINGS, THE WIND THREAT WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN, EVEN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DON'T
SEEM LIKE MUCH ON RADAR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020
CURRENT KCYS RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
GREATLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SINCE THE
STATIONARY FRONT/DRY LINE FEATURE HAS PUSHED EAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT WINDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING, STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
A FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH WEST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. ADDED GUSTY WIND WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING THOUGH MOST GUSTS HAVE NOT BEEN CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS PRESENT. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEARING
SKIES.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF ZONAL
FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF
I-25 WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 45 MPH AT TIMES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOWER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. DUE TO A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER,
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME
WITH PORTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. HIGHS IN THE 80S (WEST) TO NEAR 90
(EAST) WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG
LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY BY FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2020
DECENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SHOULD PRODUCE PRETTY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS IT
DOES SO. SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WITH SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A PRETTY GOOD COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS EARLY ON MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS OVER THE CWA
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER SE WY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS LIKELY
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH ANY CONCERNS LIMITED TO CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY,
ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 TO 45 MPH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FURTHER EAST, HIGHER RELATIVELY HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2020
HIGH WATER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO RAPID MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT. HOWEVER, CURRENT RIVER
FORECASTS SHOW THE AREA RIVERS SLOWLY SUBSIDING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CARBON
AND ALBANY COUNTIES, SO WILL MONITOR GAUGE LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO SEE HOW RIVERS RESPOND.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...AB
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
HYDROLOGY...TJT
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