874  
FXUS65 KCYS 090418  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
1018 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE  
BREEZY WINDS.  
 
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
BOTH TODAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.  
 
- ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO  
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
- MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT  
MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
A FEW ECHOES GOING UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT  
OVERALL PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS THERE, SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY  
IS MEAGER INCLUDING POOR SHEAR, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR  
HAIL GROWTH THAT THESE STORMS COULD HAVE MARGINAL TO NEAR SEVERE  
HAIL ALONGSIDE GUSTY WINDS THANKS TO INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. NON-  
SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE ALSO AROUND 1-2 NEAR THE  
WYOMING BORDER, SO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY  
PRODUCE A WEAK LANDSPOUT THOUGH OVERALL PROBABILITY STILL  
REMAINS UNLIKELY. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST, BONE DRY CONDITIONS  
ARE NOTED WITH RH VALUES IN CARBON COUNTY DOWN INTO THE SINGLE  
DIGITS AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25-30 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING  
WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW EVENING  
THANKS TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ALONGSIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF  
BREEZY WINDS AND CRITICAL RH VALUES TOMORROW.  
 
INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING EVEN LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO SURGE OVER US AND WE SEE EVEN  
WARMER TEMPERATURES. IT COULD BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS WE'VE  
SEEN THIS YEAR, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90'S TO TRIPLE DIGITS FOR  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE WE'RE JUST BARELY CLIPPED BY  
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEASTERN  
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AGREES WE'LL  
BARELY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING. THAT  
BEING SAID, AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND  
TROUGHING BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE RIDGING, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLY SOME STORMS COULD MOVE INTO OUR DRIER AREAS OF CARBON  
AND ALBANY COUNTIES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM OUR CANADIAN NEIGHBOR TO THE  
NORTH. THIS WILL DRAG DOWN SOME COOLER AIR TO DROP TEMPS INTO THE  
70'S ON FRIDAY TO COOL US OFF FROM THE 80'S TO 90'S OCCURRING ON  
THURSDAY. WITH THIS FRONT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS  
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AS THEY PLACE BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 JOULES OF CAPE  
WITH THIS FRONT. THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY SEE A FEW TENTHS OF RAIN  
TO UP TO AN INCH IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO THE MAX/MIN 24HR QPF  
SPREAD. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS FAIRLY WARM AS ANOTHER RIDGE SETS UP WITH  
SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE  
70'S TO 80'S WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE 80'S TO 90'S AS THAT RIDGE AXIS  
PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY AND HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS  
AT THE WYOMING TERMINALS FROM 15Z TO 01Z.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ420>423-425-  
427.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CG  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...RUBIN  
 
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