532
FXUS65 KRIW 030700
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1200 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS, WITH A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, DETAILS UNKNOWN WITH QUITE THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE MAIN FINGER OF THE PFJ PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS CLIPPING
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE DOWN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WITH EVER SO SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE HAD FOR THE NORTHERN BIGHORNS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AND BUFFALO AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK TO JUST ABOVE IN THE MORNING,
EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS QUICK
SHOT WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS TO GO ALONG WITH
NO IMPACTS TO BE HAD. THIS IS DEPICTED ON IR WITH THE COLDER
CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN MONTANA STARTING TO
TRICKLE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WYOMING THAT WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
LESS WARM BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS
WILL BE HEIGHTENED AS WELL FOR THE WIND CORRIDOR UP TO JOHNSON
COUNTY SEEING 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THE REST OF THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.
BEYOND THAT, RIDGING BUILDS IN STRONGER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS CALIFORNIA THAT WILL
ONLY BUILD FURTHER WITH EVER INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES BACK TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH RECORD
HIGHS TO BE FLIRTED WITH. DRY CONDITIONS AND NO SIGNS OF
STRONGER WINDS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SYSTEM LOOKS TO START TO SHOW ITS
AFFECTS COME MONDAY WITH LONGER TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING
THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AND FLATTEN DOWN AS IT
PUSHES EAST. WESTERN MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL LOOK TO BE THE FOR SURE
THING AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH THE MORE ZONAL FLOW BRINGING
INT THE HIGHER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE EC THAT
TENDS TO BE ON THE TOO FAST SIDE BUT STILL BETTER THIS FAR OUT
THAN THE GFS, CONTINUES TO HAVE A MORE SOUTHWARD PROJECTION WITH
HOW DEEP THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN. THIS WILL BRING A MORE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING SNOW FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AND ESPECIALLY THE BIGHORNS
AND CASPER MOUNTAIN THAT ARE BEHIND IN SNOWPACK THUS FAR THIS
WINTER. COLORADO MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME HELP WITH THEIR'S AS
WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
REGARDLESS, COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAD
WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR STILL BLOCKED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO CANADA EVEN WITH THE PFJ DIPPING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY, LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND
GUSTY WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN WYOMING MOUNTAINS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS AT
TIMES. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE KCOD, KWRL, AND
KJAC VICINITY DUE TO THIS, MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z.
OTHERWISE, MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT
NORTHERLY AROUND 18Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING LOWER VFR CEILINGS TO KCOD AND KWRL, WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED
CLOUD DECKS ELSEWHERE.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...MYERS
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