232
FXUS65 KRIW 061108
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
408 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
MORNING. UP TO 3 INCHES WILL OCCUR NEAR RED CANYON/SOUTH PASS,
BEAVER RIM AND TOWARD MUDDY GAP. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTH END OF THE MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SWEETWATER COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH, WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR THE CODY
FOOTHILLS AND UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AS
THE MAIN TROUGH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS NOT AS DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE, BUT REMNANT
CIRCULATIONS LOOK TO BE REORGANIZING OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSED THE DIVIDE AROUND 06Z. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
PRONE TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS
MORNING (WHICH WILL NOT BE MUCH) SUCH AS, THE OWL CREEK/BRIDGER
MOUNTAINS, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS (SPECIFICALLY
NEAR SINKS CANYON AND RED CANYON/SOUTH PASS), AND THE NORTH FACE OF
CASPER MOUNTAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGER
DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FORM, HOWEVER, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE VISIBILITY AS ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO UP TO
AN INCH. LOCATIONS LIKE WALTMAN/HILAND IN NATRONA COUNTY AND SOUTH
PASS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE SHOWERS, AS WELL AS ACROSS INTERSTATE
80 AND US-191 SOUTH OF ROCK SPRINGS TOWARD FLAMING GORGE. NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF SWEETWATER
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL TODAY, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
WIND WILL END EARLY IN THE EVENING, AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING STORM.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EPAC BEGINS TO FOLD OVER THE
PACNW. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, WEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WILL RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND THE WIND CORRIDOR (ROCK
SPRINGS TO SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY). SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR NEAR CODY AND THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN. THE
LATTER WINDS COULD REACH THE RIVERTON AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS A RESULT OF THESE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SUNDAY, AS THE PFJ STRENGTHENS TO A
150KT JET MAX AND MAKES ITS WAY OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS DURING THE DAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGH WINDS. A HIGH
WIND WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS, AS THE NAM SHOWS A
STRONG DOWNSLOPING SIGNATURE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS MARKED BY A TIGHT 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS, RANGING FROM 5C TO
MINUS 6C OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN ZONE
(IMPACTING DUBOIS AND CROWHEART) COULD BE IMPACTED AS WELL. WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AND POSSIBLY ISSUE WHEN THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE. OTHERWISE, SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FROM SATURDAY WILL RETURN SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE IN THE 60S, WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS IN JOHNSON COUNTY APPROACHING 70F.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG OVER THE CODY FOOTHILLS AND
UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN MONDAY (BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD), AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FROM MT. A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS
TIME WITH THE PFJ EXTENDING FROM THE PACNW TO THE GREAT LAKES,
PUTTING IT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COWBOY STATE. LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE, BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINOR AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BECOME
STATIONARY ALONG THE OWL CREEK/BRIDGER MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY, KEEPING NORTHERN PORTIONS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT, WHILE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE PFJ WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK
TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THESE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THESE
AREAS, AS RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS THIS MORNING (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOOKING PROMISING),
RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND NATRONA
COUNTY (AT LEAST).
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY, AS A RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL. THIS TREND
OF WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY HIGH WINDS IN MORE WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS, LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING THE DIVIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND RETREATING
NORTHWARD AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 353 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS.
THERE WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF KJAC EARLY
TODAY, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
AFTER 14Z SHOULD BE LARGELY VFR, BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND ANY SNOW SHOWER. AT KRKS, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LARGELY MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWER. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO TIME THE SHOWERS THOUGH.
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KBPI AND KPNA ALTHOUGH A
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER
01Z TONIGHT AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
THROUGH THE DAY.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. IFR
CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD AT KRIW AND KLND AS A BAND OF SNOW
MOVES THROUGH. MOST TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PREVAIL SO WE WENT WITH PROB30 GROUPS. CONDITIONS
THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH VFR
RETURNING FOR ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AT KCPR.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
WYZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WYZ014-015-028>030.
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...HATTINGS
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