352
FXUS65 KRIW 281146
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
446 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022
SNOW HAS STARTED TO FALL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING,
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH, WILL ALSO OCCUR FOR LOCATIONS LIKE CODY,
POWELL AND BUFFALO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DECREASING BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW OCCURRING NOW THROUGH SUNRISE, BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME; 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY BECOME FLURRIES LATE
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 3 TO
6 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENT.
THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z THIS
MORNING, AS WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THE FRONT WILL REACH THE DIVIDE BY MIDDAY TODAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT WEST OF THE DIVIDE HOWEVER, WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTS DECREASING TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF SWEETWATER AND NATRONA COUNTIES. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN
THESE AREAS. SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT SNOW REMAINING LIKELY IN THE WIND
RIVER BASIN AND NATRONA COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT,
BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022
A SHALLOW RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL HELP THE COLD TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY REBOUND. WEDNESDAY'S
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S, WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING AROUND 30. BY
THURSDAY, HIGHS GENERALLY REACH THE 30S, WITH SOME AREAS OF 40S;
THIS IS AROUND SEASONABLE AND LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUOUS SNOW CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AMOUNTS EACH DAY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
INCHES FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOME DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY, AS A WAVE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS LOOKS ENOUGH TO HELP CARRY SOME OF THE
WESTERN MOISTURE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AMOUNTS EAST LOOK VERY LIGHT AT
THIS TIME. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EAST,
WHILE OTHERS HAVE NONE AT ALL. THIS WAVE WOULD ALSO PROMOTE HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WEST DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT. STILL PLENTY OF TIME
TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE COMING DAYS. WINDY
CONDITIONS FAVORED ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH FRIDAY BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEST LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 445 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022
WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS TERMINALS.
KJAC WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z FOR THE MOST PART, THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z
TUESDAY AT KJAC. LLWS AT KJAC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 16Z. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER SW WY CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. KRKS MAY SEE SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS LAST AS
LATE AS 07Z TUESDAY. WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL TERMINALS.
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH THROUGH ABOUT
18Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR CENTRAL AREAS, KLND/KRIW/KCPR, THE WIND TURNS TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z WITH CLOUD CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY.
AREAS OF SNOW DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SNOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
AFTER 03Z.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 AM MST MON NOV 28 2022
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE DIVIDE BY MIDDAY TODAY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH THE FRONT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WEST OF THE DIVIDE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING IN ZONES
280/283/289 TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ001-
012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ002-
013>015-023-024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WYZ015-
019-020.
SHORT TERM...LAVOIE
LONG TERM...WITTMANN
AVIATION...LAVOIE/ROSS
FIRE WEATHER...LAVOIE
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