985
FXUS65 KRIW 300431
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
931 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE TODAY.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BIGHORNS ON SATURDAY.
- JANUARY COMES TO AN END WITH THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING, UNFORTUNATELY THE FIRST WEEK OF
FEBRUARY LOOKS TO SEE THE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 127 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
MINIMAL UPDATES FOR THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT WAVE SWEEPING
ACROSS MONTANA LATE TOMORROW IS A BIT CLOSER TO WY THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS, WHICH HAS NUDGED UP SNOWFALL CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS, AND A HINT OF SNOW INTO THE KBYG REGION.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND JUST A DUSTING FOR NORTHERN JOHNSON
COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FELL
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WY.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO QUIETER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN WARMING. HIGHS LOOK TO GET INTO THE LOW 40S EAST OF THE
DIVIDE TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDS INCREASE SOME FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WITH A
BREEZE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN WY. THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A LIGHT COATING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH ON
THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AN ALL TOO COMMON OCCURRENCE THROUGHOUT THIS WINTER HAS BEEN POTENT
AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TO NO SURPRISE
ANOTHER ONE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF
JANUARY. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH START INFLUENCING THE STATE WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM AND CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY GET INTO THE MID 40S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
UPPER 30S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MORE WARMING IS FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST, LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND LOW TO MID 40S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
KEEP MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM A NEARING DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID SOME MINOR IMPACTS MAY BE SEEN IN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY CLIP PARTS
OF NORTHERN WY WITH CHANCES MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR JOHNSON COUNTY BUT AT THIS TIME
CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE OTHER IMPACT
AS A RESULT OF THE NEARBY SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF JOHNSON COUNTY BUT CURRENTLY WINDS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
CONCERNING. ELSEWHERE, SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BUT ONCE AGAIN
NOTHING TOO CONCERNING AS IT IS WYOMING AFTER ALL.
THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST. SOME FORECAST MODELS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TRIED
TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVE IN MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT
MODELS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE REMAIN
UNORGANIZED LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HERE. THERE IS GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG THE TOP MODELS BUT BEING MULTIPLE DAYS OUT THERE IS
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE, SO IT BEARS MONITORING. THIS DISTURBANCE
DOES LOOK TO HELP SUPPRESS THE HIGH SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
IMPACTS CURRENTLY LOOK MINIMAL BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HAS REMAINED MOSTLY UNCHANGED AS MID TO LONG
RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE KEPT ONE CONSTANT. THAT CONSTANT IS A
VERY POTENT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE FEATURE WITH RIDGING
POSSIBLY BUILDING UP ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAILING
ACROSS THE REGION. CPC OUTLOOKS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POSSIBILITY
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SO
UNFORTUNATELY THOSE HOPING TO SEE COLD AND SNOWIER WEATHER, MAY HAVE
TO WAIT A BIT LONGER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 928 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE EXISTS A
20%-30% CHANCE OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS MOVING INTO KJAC AROUND
12Z; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES THERE IS NO DIRECT MENTION
IN THE TAF. THESE LOW CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AT KJAC ARE
REFLECTED IN A SCT010 GROUP AT THIS TIME. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KCOD THROUGH 12Z. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN AT KRKS AND KPNA AROUND 18Z AND SUBSIDE BY 00Z.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE AT KCOD AGAIN BY 03Z, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30KT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING BKN-OVC FL070-120 ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...STRAUB
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...LAVOIE/GERHARDT
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