508
FXUS65 KRIW 100838
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
138 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINDS, CLOUDY SKIES, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS WEST OF THE DIVIDE IN THE 30S AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN
THE 40S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40%-90%+) WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 5PM TODAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE TETONS AND
GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS, THE SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES, AND
THE WESTERN WIND RIVER RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 5PM TUESDAY UNTIL
5PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER TETON PASS ARE EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO WESTERN WYOMING ON MONDAY IS NOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE, LEAVING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO THIS TIME (1:30AM) ON MONDAY. WEAK HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT, WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCE, SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING
FROM THE SUN SO EXPECT WIDESPREAD COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. TODAY'S
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND 40S EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. A LIGHT FLURRY OR DRIZZLE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS, HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE
LESS THAN 10% DUE TO WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT.
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH AND SUPPORT A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
STATE BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE DIVIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY BE ANOTHER "MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOW" FOR
THE TETONS AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS, THE SALT RIVER AND WYOMING
RANGES, AND THE WESTERN WIND RIVER RANGE. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION,
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS, AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MOUNTAIN RANGES
TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN, SNOW, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THIS PERIOD. WHERE SNOW FALLS, A TRACE UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. NO HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SALT AND WYOMING
RANGES AND THE WESTERN WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS DUE TO IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (6 TO 12 INCHES) FALLING IN NOT WIDELY TRAVELED
AREAS. SALT RIVER PASS HAS A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE
4 INCHES, SO WE WERE COMFORTABLE NOT ISSUING HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE TETON AND GROS VENTRE
MOUNTAINS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5PM TUESDAY THROUGH
5PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST PEAKS POTENTIALLY
SEEING MORE. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TETON PASS
WITH A 95% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES AND A 70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST
8 INCHES OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO FELT MORE THAN COMFORTABLE
ISSUING THE ADVISORY. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TOGWOTEE PASS WITH AN INTERQUARTILE SNOW RANGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. THE
MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 INCH/HOUR
TO 1 INCH/HOUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TETONS AND TETON PASS, IS
WEDNESDAY 5AM TO 5PM. THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD IS WHEN OVERALL DYNAMICS
(WWA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE) WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LARGELY BE CUT OFF BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, LINGERING LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN, SNOW, OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE (30% TO 60%) THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN CONSENSUS
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CALIFORNIA LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL EJECT
EASTWARDS ON FRIDAY, CUTTING OFF NEARLY ALL MOISTURE ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS MEANS THAT FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.
ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE
LOOKS TO RETURN TO AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS COMES TO
FRUITION, SNOW CHANCES (40%-60%) EXIST FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CLEAR THIS EARLY
OUT BUT THE CHANCES FOR MORE WESTERN MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE THERE!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
SNOW CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN AND NATRONA COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE
FORECAST. ANY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KJAC AND KCOD IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 07Z. THERE IS A 10 TO 20% CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS, WITH LIGHT WINDS (11KT OR LESS) ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-OVC FL120-200
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER, FL050-080, OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS BY 18Z, GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER KBPI/KPNA BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SALT
RIVER/WYOMING RANGES AND THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL. SNOW REACHING THE
KBPI, KPNA AND KJAC TERMINALS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEXT
FORECAST.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ012.
DISCUSSION...GERHARDT
AVIATION...LAVOIE/MYERS
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