871
FXUS65 KRIW 122304
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
404 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COWBOY STATE TODAY.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE STATE LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING
SLIM CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN BIGHORNS AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA
COUNTIES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY BUT MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE COMPARED TO THE OVERNIGHT DISCUSSION. A POTENT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WARM
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, THIS PUSH OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES
ITSELF QUICKLY JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD THIS PATTERN OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND MODELS
STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD PICTURE OF WHAT MAY OCCUR. HAVING TO
LOOK NEARLY A WEEK AHEAD FOR THE NEXT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD PAINT A GOOD PICTURE OF JUST HOW STUBBORN AND DUG
IN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXTEND THROUGH THE UPPER
ROCKIES WITH THE BROAD TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FINGER
OF THE PFJ CONTINUES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BEFORE IT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AS IS EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY. IR DEPICTS HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MORE WIND PRONE
AREAS. GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY FROM SWEETWATER TO
NATRONA COUNTIES DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
JOHNSON COUNTY AND CODY FOOTHILLS ALSO LIKELY TO SEE GUSTIER
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF WESTERLY
FLOW. OTHERWISE, A WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TUESDAY
EVENING TO THE NORTH THAT WILL SEE POSSIBLE (10-15%) ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN BIGHORNS BUT WITH NO IMPACTS.
NOTHING OF NOTE UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN COME LATE THURSDAY
AS THE PFJ SAGS FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BIT BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FRO THE NORTHERN BIGHORNS (20-30%)
BUT MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS
TO BUILD BACK IN WITH LONGER TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL END IN ANOTHER WARMING AND
DRY TREND BEYOND THE WEEKEND WITH MORE OF THE SAME TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT MOST
TERMINALS, WITH HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF
25KTS (KCOD) TO 30KTS (KCPR) CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND STRAIGHT
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. MOST OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A WEATHER SYSTEM SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A SWITCH TO NORTH WINDS FOR TERMINALS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. GUSTS WITH THIS SHIFT WILL GENERALLY
BE 15KTS, BUT KBYG IS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SOME GUSTS
NEAR 40KTS AFTER 18Z/TUESDAY. LOWER CEILINGS SLIDE SOUTH FROM
KBYG TO KCPR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KCPR WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS STARTING RIGHT AROUND 00Z/WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH A LARGE PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT
MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIGHORN
RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DZIEWALTOWSKI
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...CNJ/STRAUB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page