859
FXUS65 KRIW 251009
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
409 AM MDT THU APR 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN WY.
- SECOND SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATER FRIDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AMPLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT THU APR 25 2024
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS COLORADO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY, BRINGING SOME SFC FOCUS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS
THE STATE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE,
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
KEEPING THE AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE ACROSS
WY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF INSTABILITY. MODELS
CONTINUE BRING BETTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE STATE DUE
TO MULTIPLE LIFTING MECHANISMS, BUT WITH SOME DEVIATION IN
MODELS ON OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TROUBLE WITH THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL STORMS, HAVE KEPT SOME OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN
CHECK FOR THE STATE. STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON
COUNTY, WITH AREAS OF CENTRAL WY LIKELY SEEING AROUND 1 INCH BY
LATE SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATION REMAINING LIMITED TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE WINDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU APR 25 2024
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/BECOME WIDESPREAD.
THE CHANCE OF ANY TERMINAL HAVING A THUNDERSTORM MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER IT IS TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING TS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE
CHANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR VCTS AT KJAC FROM 19Z-00Z THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE (AROUND A 1 IN
3 CHANCE) IF A THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL. MOST
TERMINALS HAVE PREVAILING VCSH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY ERRATIC
WIND WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. WIND GUSTS AT HIGH AS 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL OCCUR AT TIMES AS
BKN040- BKN100 CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND BE CONFINED LARGELY IN VICINITY OF KCPR.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRAUB
AVIATION...HATTINGS
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