591
FXUS65 KRIW 311600
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- SHOWER CHANCES (70-90%) LINGER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH A LESS ACTIVE AND DRY PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
BRIEF INDUCED RIDGING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH PUSHES CLOSER. THIS WILL OPEN THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS WILL PUSH BACK IN
FROM THE WEST SOON AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS.
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN EXPECTED AS THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE THE 7000 FOOT MARK. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, AND AS SUCH, HAVE
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES. 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL (50-70%) FOR THESE AREAS
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN UP TO A
FOOT POSSIBLE (40-50%).
HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LOWER VALLEY RAIN EXPECTED. LIMITED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED,
THOUGH, WITH ONLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR LOWER
VALLEYS. THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SWEETWATER COUNTY ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOME CAPE VALUES UP TO 100-200 J/KG,
INDICATIVE OF THIS OCCURRENCE, ALBEIT LOW. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS
WILL BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO TUESDAY, BUT OF LESS INTENSITY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS DIPS SOUTH OF THE CWA WRAPPING IN THE EASTERLY FLOW FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE IN THE DAY. POSSIBLE VERY LIGHT
SNOW AT THAT POINT FOR THE LOWER TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE COOLER BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FINGER OF THE PFJ WELL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LINGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WELL BUT LIMITED IN NATURE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY WITH
THE MAIN WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SETS MORE IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER ROCKIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TO START THE TAF PERIOD.
KJAC WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DISSIPATE WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING (20% CHANCE). A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHOWERS RETURN TO KBPI, KJAC, AND KPNA THIS MORNING AROUND 15Z
TO 19Z WITH KJAC SEEING SHOWERS LINGER UNTIL 01Z TUESDAY. KPNA
AND KBPI MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AROUND 01Z
TUESDAY BUT AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE PROB30 GROUPS
HAVE BEEN ADDED. STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
DURING THE EVENING WITH KJAC SEEING PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH 05Z TUESDAY. LOW CEILINGS ARE HANGING AROUND TERMINALS
SUCH AS KRIW, KLND, AND KCPR THIS MORNING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A LIGHT BREEZE IS
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH KCPR, KRKS, AND KCOD SEEING A
SLIGHT UPTICK DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARLY ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON STARTING AROUND 19Z THROUGH AROUND 02Z
TUESDAY. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KLND, KRIW, AND KRKS MAY SEE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME CONTINUING TO 06Z. KCPR
SEES THIS PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY LATER AROUND 05Z LINGERING
THROUGH 10Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE
FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ001-012-
014-024.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
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