284
FXUS65 KRIW 210544
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1044 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL WY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
- STRONG AUTUMN RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES, DEFLECTING MOST
PRECIPITATION, AND BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CURRENTLY MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND, USHERING IN A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
MOST OF THE STATE IS HAVING A BEAUTIFUL BUT CHILLY AUTUMN DAY
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIMITED TO CENTRAL WY AROUND KCPR, WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REACHING 35 TO 40 MPH. A PUSH OF HIGH CLOUDS IS TRYING TO PUSH
ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY, WHICH WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING PAST THE
WESTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRONG AUTUMN RIDGING STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE STATE,
WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS
BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LET A LITTLE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
TETONS/YNP EACH DAY THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THOSE
AREAS COOLER AND BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
THE LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFF THE PACNW COAST
WILL FINALLY GET PULLED APART BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH PIECES
EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. THE MAIN PIECE WILL MOVE
THROUGH STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS PIECE OF ENERGY, SO
FORECAST FOR SNOWFALL REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE TIME
BEING. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST, DUE TO WEAKER
ENERGY, JET PLACEMENT, AND LESSER AVAILABILITY TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE WEATHER
PATTERN AFTER THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH, BY KEEPING LONG-FETCH
ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC GOING WELL INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION, AND A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SMALLER WEATHER SYSTEM
TAPPING THIS MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF THERE IS AN EXCEPTION, IT WILL BE AT KJAC IF SHOWERS ARE
ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON THIS OCCURRING, HOWEVER, AND HAVE KEPT VFR CEILINGS FOR NOW
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, KCPR WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND, GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS
AFTER 18Z.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON SMOKE, ICING, AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRAUB
AVIATION...MYERS
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