866
FXUS65 KRIW 260301
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
801 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES, APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN THE FAR WEST
VALLEYS AND THE LOWER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE IN STORE FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND
(JANUARY 31 AND FEBRUARY 1) COULD APPROACH 50 DEGREES FOR MANY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN SWEETWATER TO SOUTHERN NATRONA
COUNTIES THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE, IR DEPICTS CLEARING SKIES WEST
OF THE DIVIDE AND WILL CLEAR EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME BREEZY WINDS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
MAY HINDER TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE MORNINGS BY
SUNRISE.
WITH THAT SAID, FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE UPPER ROCKIES MONDAY ONWARD. THIS
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK AND POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY WEEEKND'S
END. ANY STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL STAY NORTHEAST AS
THE PFJ DEFLECTS THE ENERGY INTO THE GREAT AND HIGH PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
AFTER NEARLY A YEAR, MANY LOCATION ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE FINALLY
SAW TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW ZERO. LOCATIONS SUCH AS RIVERTON SAW
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS HIT -10F TYING THE PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR THE DAY FROM 2008. IT IS TRULY QUITE REFRESHING TO
SEE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS INSTEAD OF RECORD HIGHS THAT WE HAVE
SEEN FREQUENTLY ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE
COMING TO AN END.
THE BRIEF TASTE OF WINTER THATS RETURNED TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL PERSIST FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAIN
ON THE CHILLY SIDE RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. A
NEARING WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HINDER FURTHER COOLING AS CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN WY AS
OF 0100 MST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WY HAVING A 20-50% CHANCE
FOR A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO. SHOWERS DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. IMPACTS AS A RESULT OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH LOWER
ELEVATIONS SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A COATING TO
POSSIBLY AN INCH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AN INCH TO POTENTIALLY 3
INCHES. TEMPERATURES TODAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN PORTIONS OF NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. OTHER
LOCATIONS SEE HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WY WHERE WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS JUST MENTIONED, WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN WY, WHERE
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
LIGHT BREEZE WILL DEVELOP OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. THESE BREEZY WINDS
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HINDER TEMPERATURES FROM
COOLING. THAT BEING SAID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL FEEL
QUITE RAW WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 TO -20 ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE. ONE AREA TO MONITOR IS NATRONA AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES WHERE STRONGER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES WOULD
LEAD TO FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO POSSIBLY -30 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD BE BORDERLINE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT AT THIS TIME NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY WITH
GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOWS MAY STILL GET BELOW
ZERO FOR PARTS OF THE STATE BEFORE WARMING OCCURS ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES. THIS WARMING IS DUE TO 700 MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION WITH BREEZY WINDS
LIKELY ALLOWING FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
THAT BEING SAID, COLDER 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WY AS A RESULT OF LIGHTER WINDS, LEADING TO
THE COLD PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THAT CONCLUDES THE FREE TRIAL OF A NORMAL WY WINTER, AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY SEES A DAY
AND NIGHT DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES WARMER WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THE ALL TOO FAMILIAR
POTENT RIDGING THAT HAS HINDERED A NORMAL WINTER ACROSS THE REGION,
REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY
MILD AND DRY. MODELS DO TRY TO SHOW SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES WORK
THEIR WAY NEAR THE AREA BUT RIDGING LOOKS TO HINDER ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OR INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY. AS
FOR THE START OF FEBRUARY NO PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE WITHIN SIGHT
WITH RIDGING LIKELY TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK IN, RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. WINDS ARE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND KCPR AND
KRKS MONDAY MORNING. THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS FOG FOR TONIGHT;
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING INDICATIONS OF FOG, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...LOWE
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...WITTMANN
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