496
FXUS65 KRIW 190730
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
130 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS PASSING CLOUDS PUSH EAST OF SWEETWATER COUNTY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.
- A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY (~20%) ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH MODEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH THE NEXT BIGGER SYSTEM BY WEEK'S END THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE OF LOW
CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
IR CURRENTLY DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH SWEETWATER COUNTY PUSHING EAST
BY SUNRISE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE MAIN FINGER OF THE PFJ WELL TO THE NORTH
SUPPORTING A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL
DEEPEN WITH ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT OR MODEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH MID WEEK
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
LOW COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ~20 PERCENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY, MODELS INDICATE IT BECOMING MORE OF AN
OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THIS WILL THEN PUSH ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER ROCKIES NOT OF HIGH OF AN IMPACT
WITH ITS QUICKER MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
OF AGREEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS FLUCTUATE WITH EACH MODEL RUN.
WITH THIS RUN, IT HAS BUMPED UP FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT DOES INCLUDE THE BIGHORNS. WITH THE
SEASONABLE TO JUST ABOVE TEMPERATURES, EXPECT VALLEY/BASIN
RAIN, EVEN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BELOW 8-9KFT. THIS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST WEATHER EVENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR HEADLINES GOING
FORWARD FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, STRETCHING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALL DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY IT PROGRESSES WITH ITS
EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. BEYOND THAT, INDUCED RIDGING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EXTENDING IN FROM THE GOA THAT COULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL
WITH A MORE REINFORCED COLDER AIR AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT ENJOY
THE QUIETER WEATHER LEADING UP TO LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING
OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING ARE PRODUCING A FEW VIRGA (EVAPORATING)
SHOWERS SOUTH OF RKS, BUT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY TO REACH
THE GROUND, AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ON MONDAY EVENING, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING (INCLUDING OVER JAC)
AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOWE
AVIATION...VANDENBOOGART
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