276
FXUS65 KRIW 310441
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
941 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY TONIGHT.
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD IN OVER THE STATE
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEARLY 15
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- FEBRUARY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO START OFF SIMILARLY TO HOW MOST OF
DECEMBER AND JANUARY HAVE GONE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 103 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE HERE IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH RIDGING IN
PLACE. THE NEXT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO SWEEP NORTH OF WY, BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AS EXPECTED. STILL ONLY EXPECTING VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND BIGHORNS TONIGHT, WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS NO HIGHER THAN ONE INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE LAST FRIDAY OF JANUARY WILL BE MILD WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE COWBOY STATE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION, KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY. HIGHS TODAY CONTINUE TO
WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE GETTING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE WIND CORRIDOR
FROM CASPER TO ROCK SPRINGS, ALONG WITH THE UPPER WIND RIVER
BASIN AND CODY FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A
NEARING DISTURBANCE. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, PARTS
OF NORTHERN WY, MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MAY SEE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. THAT BEING SAID,
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY ARE
NON-ZERO, SO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS
INCREASING FURTHER IN SPEED AND COVERAGE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WY BY SATURDAY LOOK
VERY MINIMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A COATING TO AT MOST AN
INCH OR TWO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLDEST AIR OUT OF THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY, LEADING TO FURTHER WARMING. INCREASING WINDS AS A
RESULT OF THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE WARMING AS
WELL. WINDS, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SPEED FOR SATURDAY. THE BREEZIEST LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG
THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM CASPER TO ROCK SPRINGS, AS WELL AS THE
UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN, CODY FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF JOHNSON
COUNTY. SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 WILL BE
COMMON IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE
WARM THAN MILD, AS HIGHS LOOK TO BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE THE WARMEST EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH WESTERN LOCATIONS
SEEING VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
MUCH OF THE SAME WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY BEING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AND WINDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER.
THE FIRST MONDAY OF FEBRUARY WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSED
SOUTH LEADING TO THE BRIEF DEVELOPMENT OF ZONAL FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BE VERY SHORT-LIVED, AS A VERY POTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE A FEW VERY UNORGANIZED WEAK SHORTWAVES TREK
NEARBY THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHERN WY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES, WHICH ONLY LOOK TO BE
AROUND 10-20%. THE MORE NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS OF THESE SHORTWAVES
WOULD BE INCREASED WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. WHILE WINDS
DO NOT LOOK ALL TOO CONCERNING AT THIS TIME, BREEZY CONDITIONS
DO LOOK LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THIS VERY POTENT HIGH
PRESSURE ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND NEARING 50 WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ONE ASPECT TO MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HOW LONG THIS HIGH PRESSURE CAN
REMAIN IN CONTROL AND DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION. IF PATTERNS
FROM EARLIER THIS WINTER ARE ANY INDICATION, IT MAY STAY IN
PLACE FOR QUITE SOME TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
ESPECIALLY BEING MORE THAN A WEEK OUT, SO IT WILL BE A WAITING
GAME TO SEE WHAT OCCURS. SOME SORT OF DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WILL NEED TO OCCUR FOR WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER TO
RETURN. OTHERWISE, THE START OF FEBRUARY IS LOOKING A LOT LIKE
HOW MUCH OF DECEMBER AND JANUARY HAVE BEEN, WHICH IS DRY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
BKN-OVC FL070-120 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 12Z. VERY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%) WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT KJAC, KCOD, KCPR, AND KWRL, AS THESE CLOUDS
PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW SO LEFT THE VCSH IN THE FORECAST. ANTICIPATE MOUNTAIN
TOP OBSCURATIONS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AT KJAC, BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT (20%-30% CHANCE) THROUGH 12Z AS WELL AND THESE CHANCES
ARE REFLECTED IN A SCT030 GROUP. ADDITIONALLY, TURBULENT WINDS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT KCOD
THROUGH 13Z, DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO 25KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. SIMILAR WINDS OF 25 TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP AT
KCPR AND KRKS AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AT KRIW RETURNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER 09Z.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY AFTER
18Z. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, WITH WINDS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...STRAUB
DISCUSSION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
AVIATION...LAVOIE/GERHARDT
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