578
FXUS65 KRIW 142205
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
405 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
THE FIRST INITIAL WAVE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH BRINGING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASINS. RADAR AND SHORT-TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS FIRST INITIAL WAVE PROGRESSING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS FOR THE SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
FORECAST. THE LOW IS STILL TRACKING E/SE WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. STILL
CONTINUING TO SEE WIDESPREAD, ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AND SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO GO UNCHANGED
AS MODELS HAVE COME TO GET A BETTER GRASP OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY,
SEEING NO REASON TO UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE ANY ZONES AND CONTENT TO
KEEP HAZARDS WHERE THEY ARE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE TODAY WITH LITTLE
TRANSITION BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S,
LOW 40S IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND SOUTHERN ZONES WHILE STAYING
AROUND FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WON'T FLUCTUATE
A WHOLE LOT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BASINS DROP INTO THE
MID 20S WITH THE MOUNTAIN ZONES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THURSDAY, AS THE WHOLE AREA SEES A 5
DEGREE JUMP FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MINIMIZING ACCUMULATIONS. WIND
CONTINUES TO BE A FACTOR ACROSS THE AREA AS GUSTS COULD RANGE
BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH IN SWEETWATER COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT
SURGE OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS LOOK TO LIGHTEN UP A BIT THURSDAY AS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED SWEETWATER AND CENTRAL ZONES AND
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
THE TROUGH REMAINS STEADY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH,
SO PRECIP WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE DAY, WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN RANGE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD BY ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER BACK FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE STATE,
WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY. THE
OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN IN PLACE, WITH SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD AROUND HE WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. THE NEXT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO
SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WY. BEYOND THIS,
MODELS HAVE TROUBLE DEFINING SEPARATE WAVES, SO CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING OF CONTINUED WAVES REMAINS LOWER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST. TERMINALS WILL
GENERALLY HAVE AT LEAST MVFR (SOME IFR) CEILINGS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SNOWING TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BUT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR MUCH OF DAY THURSDAY KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW TONIGHT LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WIND RIVER
BASIN WHERE CONSTANT IFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AT KLND AND KRIW, BUT
MOST TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. THE KJAC TERMINAL LOOKS BE THE LEAST IMPACTED
WITH ONLY BRIEF BOUTS OF SNOWFALL WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY STAYING
JUST ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. ALSO VERY WINDY EASTERLY WIND WILL
OCCUR AT KRKS TONIGHT, BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARDS 12Z THURSDAY.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. NORTHERN ZONES WILL
STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA; ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BASINS AND MOUNTAINS.BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ027>030.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
WYZ019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ015-018-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY
FOR WYZ010-011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ016-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WYZ020-022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
FOR WYZ008-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
THURSDAY FOR WYZ005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ007.
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...STRAUB
AVIATION...MURRELL
FIRE WEATHER...VORST
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