163
FXUS65 KRIW 140446
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING BASINS. HIGHER GUSTS OF 60 TO 75
MPH ARE LIKELY (80% CHANCE) IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ABSAROKA, OWL CREEK, AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS.
- WIND CONTINUES AND STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH IMPACTING MOST OF WYOMING. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WYOMING BASINS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD ALSO SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED SATURDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (90%) FOR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
GUST REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THIS EVENING. WINDS DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT WINDS IN ABSAROKA, OWL
CREEK, AND WIND RIVER FOOTHILLS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW (SATURDAY), FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH WIND WATCHES
HAVE BEEN UPGRADED AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 50 TO 65 MPH GUSTS SATURDAY. WINTER STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WITH A
MENTION OF STRONG WINDS COMBINING WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY TO MAKE FOR WINTRY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER PASSES.
THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN POWDER RIVER BASIN
(INCLUDING BUFFALO, WY) ARE ABSENT FROM THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CURRENTLY, BUT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
THERE ARE HINTS THAT ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS
LIKE THE NORTH BIG HORN COUNTY AIRPORT AND JOHNSON COUNTY
AIRPORT. HOWEVER, POPULATION CENTERS AT SLIGHTLY LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE THESE HIGH WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE BREEZY, AND ESPECIALLY THOSE TRAVELING
WITH HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST ROUTES (SUCH AS I-90)
WILL WANT TO CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION EVEN INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FROM THURSDAY HAVE EXPIRED, GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE JACKSON VALLEY WILL CONTINUE,
BEFORE INCREASING AROUND 15Z. GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH ALSO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH PASS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS AS
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE AND CHANGES LITTLE COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT, AS A 150KT JET STREAK
OF THE PFJ MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, HOWEVER GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HIGH WINDS OVER 70 MPH LOOK TO OCCUR OFF THE
WASHAKIE NEEDLES (SOUTHERN END OF THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS) AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, THESE WINDS DO NOT
LOOK TO IMPACT RED CANYON/SOUTH PASS, BUT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 60 AND
70 MPH. THIS BE DUE TO 700MB WINDS BEING MORE WESTERLY, WHICH IS NOT
AS CONDUCIVE FOR THE HIGHER WINDS. WILL NOT ISSUE NEW HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AS A RESULT. SOME NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS ARE CODY AND CASPER,
WHERE THERE ARE A 60% CHANCE OF REACHING 60 MPH. THIS COULD BE AN
ISOLATED GUST THAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z (3PM) AND 00Z
(6PM). SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE ABSAROKAS, AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY, AS A STORM SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN MT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EVEN MORE, WITH HIGH WINDS RETURNING TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO
55 MPH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CWA. CENTRAL PORTIONS LOOK TO HAVE
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, DUE TO 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60KT.
ADDITIONALLY, THESE WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE WIND RIVER
MOUNTAINS ADDING TO THE THREAT OF 60 MPH WINDS. HAVE ISSUED HIGH
WIND WATCHES FOR THE WIND RIVER BASIN, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WIND
RIVER MOUNTAINS, THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/RATTLESNAKE RANGE AND PORTIONS
OF NATRONA COUNTY AS A RESULT. A WATCH/WARNING MAY ALSO BE NEEDED
FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS, BUT WILL LEAVE FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WITH AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR YELLOWSTONE, THE
ABSAROKAS, THE TETONS/GROS VENTRES AND BIGHORNS FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THESE AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH THE ADDED
THREAT OF 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS. LEFT THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS OUT OF
THIS PACKAGE DUE TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW OCCURRING IN THE
HIGHER, MORE ISOLATED ELEVATIONS AND NOT IMPACTING SOUTH PASS. WIND
WAS DEEMED TO BE THE HIGHER THREAT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
STARTING AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, BUT THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED GUST OF 60 MPH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR LOCATIONS PRONE TO POST-FRONTAL WINDS
LIKE BUFFALO AND CODY. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT LOOKS TO ONLY BE FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS (THE BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY) WILL
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING THE NATURAL
DECOUPLING THAT OCCURS AFTER SUNSET, SO EVEN THOUGH 700MB WINDS
AROUND 50KT WILL BE IN PLACE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT WILL BE HARDER
FOR THOSE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS, JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FREMONT
COUNTY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES, WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE MORE
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES.
WINDS WILL FINALLY BE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING, AS THE STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IT WILL BE A RAW DAY FOR THE IDES OF MARCH, WITH READINGS 10 TO 30
DEGREES COLDER FROM SATURDAY LEAVING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
30S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WILL BE WIDESPREAD, INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH (IT IS MARCH AFTER ALL), AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY WITH A STRONG
STORM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S, WITH GUSTY WINDS RETURNING AGAIN.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS, BUT ALSO INCLUDE THE WIND CORRIDOR (FROM
THE DIVIDE INTO NATRONA COUNTY).
THE STORY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE HIGH CENTER FROM THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND AND SETTLES OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST IN THE FORM OF A 594DM HIGH. THIS IS VERY ANOMALOUS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND LOOKS TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 70S. HIGHS
COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR PORTIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY, AS THE
RIDGE WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND ALLOW THE PFJ
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS TREND LOOKS TO DECREASE BY
WEDNESDAY, AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WIND REMAINS THE MOST WIDESPREAD WEATHER IMPACT FOR TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL TERMINALS WILL SEE ELEVATED WIND THROUGH
THE NIGHT, MOST NOTABLY AT KCOD WHICH SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW OVER
THE WESTERN WYOMING MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS. WIND WILL BEGIN INCREASING AT
ALL TERMINALS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50
KNOTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SAME
TIME, KJAC IS EXPECTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z, WITH CONTINUING BUT LESSER CHANCES THROUGH
SUNSET. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES THEN FOLLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW AT KCPR WHERE WE HAVE PREVAILED IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
02Z SUNDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER AND/OR CWSU ZDV AND ZLC FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON ICING AND TURBULENCE FORECASTS.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WYZ001-002-008-009-012.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ003-
005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ007-
011-015>020-022.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WYZ008-009.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
WYZ026>030.
UPDATE...VANDENBOOGART
DISCUSSION...LAVOIE
AVIATION...MYERS
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