792  
FXUS65 KRIW 130945  
AFDRIW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY  
345 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE CURRENTLY, AS  
NOTED IN IR IMAGERY AND TD INCREASES AFTER PASSAGE. THE FRONT  
SHOULD BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AROUND SUNRISE OR SO,  
WITH ADDED MOISTURE AND COLDER AIRMASS HOLDING BACK OVERALL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. WITH  
THE TROUGH PASSING BY THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH  
TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES  
AND NATRONA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM  
OUTPUT WILL BE LIMITED, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD GET STRONG BRIEFLY  
THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK  
OF DAYTIME HEATING BUOYANCY.  
 
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS  
EVENING, HELPING THE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH, WHILE BRINGING EVEN  
MORE MILD AIR TO THE REGION. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL KNOCK ANOTHER 5  
TO 10 DEGREES OFF OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST AREAS  
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES. TRAGIC! ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE  
REMAINING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN  
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020  
 
AFTER THE BRIEF, AND MUCH APPRECIATED, REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT,  
WEDNESDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S ACROSS MANY AREAS. THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS BRINGING THE  
COLD FRONT, TRANSITIONS TO A DRY, ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND,  
KEEPING MOST AREAS WARM AND DRY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER, RH AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT  
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO SHORTWAVES IN THE  
FLOW. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN  
AREAS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STILL  
UNCERTAIN AS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, SO POPS HAVE  
BEEN KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP SLIGHTLY TO START THE  
WEEK WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE NORTH. PRECIP CHANCES AND  
TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE SOUTHWARD  
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW WY UNTIL 15Z. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WY  
AFTER 20Z THROUGH 06Z. KCPR MAY SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TOWARD  
23Z UNTIL 03Z. A GUSTY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTHERN WY AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY  
EVENING. A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WY THIS MORNING AND  
SURGES INTO CENTRAL WY AROUND 00Z, REACHING SOUTHERN WY AROUND  
06Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL INTRODUCE MORE  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, IMPROVING OVERALL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  
STILL SOME CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHER WY ALONG THE I-80  
CORRIDOR, AS WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT,  
WHILE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH  
TONIGHT, BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FAR  
SOUTH WY FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...STRAUB  
LONG TERM...FISHER  
AVIATION...STRAUB  
FIRE WEATHER...STRAUB  
 
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