792
FXUS65 KRIW 130945
AFDRIW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
345 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020
THE COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE CURRENTLY, AS
NOTED IN IR IMAGERY AND TD INCREASES AFTER PASSAGE. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY AROUND SUNRISE OR SO,
WITH ADDED MOISTURE AND COLDER AIRMASS HOLDING BACK OVERALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S HIGHS. WITH
THE TROUGH PASSING BY THIS AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
AND NATRONA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
OUTPUT WILL BE LIMITED, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD GET STRONG BRIEFLY
THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF DAYTIME HEATING BUOYANCY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS
EVENING, HELPING THE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH, WHILE BRINGING EVEN
MORE MILD AIR TO THE REGION. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL KNOCK ANOTHER 5
TO 10 DEGREES OFF OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST AREAS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES. TRAGIC! ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
REMAINING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020
AFTER THE BRIEF, AND MUCH APPRECIATED, REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT,
WEDNESDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS MANY AREAS. THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS BRINGING THE
COLD FRONT, TRANSITIONS TO A DRY, ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING MOST AREAS WARM AND DRY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER, RH AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, SO POPS HAVE
BEEN KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP SLIGHTLY TO START THE
WEEK WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE NORTH. PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW WY UNTIL 15Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WY
AFTER 20Z THROUGH 06Z. KCPR MAY SEE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY TOWARD
23Z UNTIL 03Z. A GUSTY WIND WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN WY AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WY THIS MORNING AND
SURGES INTO CENTRAL WY AROUND 00Z, REACHING SOUTHERN WY AROUND
06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2020
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL INTRODUCE MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, IMPROVING OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
STILL SOME CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHER WY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR, AS WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT,
WHILE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FALL TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT, BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FAR
SOUTH WY FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.
RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STRAUB
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STRAUB
FIRE WEATHER...STRAUB
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