955
FXUS65 KSLC 311744
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1144 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DANGEROUS HEAT TO NORTHERN
UTAH ON SATURDAY AND TO SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH COULD SEE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN UTAH BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING,
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE
DERIVED PWS INDICATE VALUES IN THE 0.3 TO 0.5 INCH RANGE FOR FOR
WESTERN UTAH, WITH VALUES UP TO 0.8 INCH STILL HANGING OUT OVER
SOUTHEAST UTAH. THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ACCELERATING LATER TODAY AS THE FLOW GAINS MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT. CAMS ARE STILL INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE UINTAS, WITH
LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
HIGHS AROUND 5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ENOUGH TO BRING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THE SOUTHERN UTAH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS
MAXIMUM STRENGTH. HIGHS UP TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIKELY BRING
HEAT TO DANGEROUS LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE VALLEYS
OF UTAH. HAVE ADDED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR EASTERN BOX
ELDER COUNTY, WITH HEADLINES OTHERWISE LOOKING GOOD. OVERALL,
HEATRISK VALUES HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD GIVEN MORE REASONABLE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE LAST HEAT WAVE. HOWEVER, THINK THAT
IF ANYTHING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE, SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF RED (MAJOR) HEATRISK VALUES ARE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE WILL SHIFT THE
RIDGE EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY. THUS, ANTICIPATING NORTHERN UTAH MAXES
TO DROP A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UTAH STAY
DANGEROUSLY HOT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN UTAH COULD
COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BRING AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, BUT WILL BRING ENOUGH LESS WARM
AIR TO DROP MAXES FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOUTHERN UTAH MAXES (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST
UTAH MAXES), WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO LIKELY KEEP HEAT IN THE
DANGEROUS RANGE.
BEHIND THE TROUGH, MOST GUIDANCE PUTS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNDER A ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH DRY, BUT AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES ENOUGH
OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW TO BRING SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL A
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 19-20Z. LIGHT,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 04Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON (18-
00Z) IN FAR NORTHEASTERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30-35KTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY
HOT AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEYS ON
SATURDAY. A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN UTAH WHERE THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER AT LEAST SOUTHWEST UTAH,
WHICH COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY BEFORE A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK,
BRINGING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ101-
114>116-120>122.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ102-104>106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ103.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ123-124-
128>131.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ277.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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