006
FXUS65 KSLC 272125
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
325 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY TIED
TO TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM THURSDAY)
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
BEING INFLUENCED BY A PAIR OF WEAK SYSTEMS SPLITTING AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MORE CENTERED ATOP THE AREA. WHILE MEAGER,
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE THAT THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING ARE HELPING LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH
CENTERED MORE OVERHEAD, FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS QUITE WEAK. AS
SUCH, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FAIRLY TERRAIN TIED, THOUGH HAVE
SEEN SOME OUTFLOWS HELP INITIATE SOME ACTIVITY IN AN HANDFUL OF
TERRAIN ADJACENT AREAS. GIVEN DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS, SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD DCAPE OF 800-1200 J/KG ACROSS MUCH
OF UTAH, SO ASIDE FROM LIGHTNING SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER CELLS. AS DIURNAL HEATING
WANES THIS EVENING, EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS SETTING IN OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN CHANGES FAIRLY MINIMALLY.
AS SUCH, EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THAT OF TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SLOWLY
TRYING TO DRIFT INTO ADJACENT AREAS. ALSO CONVECTION WILL BE
SIMILARLY HIGHER BASED IN NATURE, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AT AREAS NEARBY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ONCE
AGAIN WANE MOVING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, H7 TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ROUGHLY IN THE 10C TO 12C RANGE. CORRESPONDING AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD IN TURN, WITH MOST LOCATIONS AROUND 5F
TO 15F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL FOR LATE MAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH
MARKS IN THE 70S ACROSS SW WYOMING, 80S ACROSS MOST UT VALLEY
LOCATIONS, AND 90S IN LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY, LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
ZION NP, AND GLEN CANYON NRA.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6 AM THURSDAY), ISSUED 407 AM MDT
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THESE STORMS WON'T PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION,
THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
POLEWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS REX BLOCK CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE PATTERN STAGNANT THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THEIR PEAK THIS WEEKEND. H7 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 15-17C
ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DAILY MAXIMUM FOR JUNE 1ST AT KSLC, WHICH
CURRENTLY STANDS AT 15.8C. AS SUCH, WE COULD BE IN RECORD
TERRITORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH PEAK IN THE MID-UPPER 90S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS EXCEPT LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY, WHERE THE HIGH
MAY EXCEED 105 ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NUDGES NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY. HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING PEAK SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30% CHANCE FOR KSLC
TO REACH 100 DEGREES ON SUNDAY -- IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, THIS
WOULD BE THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD, WITH THE EARLIEST
CURRENTLY STANDING AT JUNE 4TH, SET IN 2021.
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO, IN ADDITION TO A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEAR TO WORK TOGETHER TO DISRUPT AND BREAK
DOWN THE REX BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS, ESPECIALLY SURROUNDING THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND HOW IT EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FOR NOW.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN
DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. SOME VARIABLE WINDS AND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE (<30% CHANCE) WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
NEARBY CONVECTION.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
NEARBY CONVECTION THAT COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE MOVING INTO THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY, BUT FORECAST
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE INITIATED OFF
OF HIGH TERRAIN, WITH MEAGER MOTION INTO ADJACENT AREAS GIVEN
SOMEWHAT WEAK FLOW ALOFT. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO
GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OUT OF ANY STRONGER CELLS. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
EFFECTS OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BECOME MORE APPARENT, WITH A
NOTICEABLE CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND AND DECREASE IN
OVERALL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR A MOISTER SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIME
RANGE, WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE WEST
THEREAFTER. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS IS STILL A BIT LOW
AT THIS TIME, IF THE PATTERN DOES INDEED EVOLVE IN SUCH A WAY,
WOULD LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...WHITLAM
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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