142
FXUS65 KSLC 111016
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
316 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED INVERSION PERIOD WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HAZE, NOCTURNAL FOG, AND A
DEGRADATION IN AIR QUALITY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
US, WITH EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN US. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY AMPLIFIED QUITE YET AT
THE 500-MB LEVEL, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. LOOKING AT THE
PAST FEW SOUNDINGS FROM KSLC, WE CAN SEE A STOUT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CLEARLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE
PROFILE WITH TIME. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE, WITH VALLEY
INVERSIONS LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE MOUNTAINTOPS WARMING THROUGH MID-WEEK, VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO INCREASE UNDER THE INVERSION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. VALLEY HAZE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP, WITH THE UTAH
DEPARTMENT OF AIR QUALITY FORECASTING YELLOW/MODERATE AIR QUALITY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF HAZE, VALLEY FOG CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS PROLONGED SUBSIDENT PATTERN. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT HAVE LIMITED COOLING JUST
ENOUGH WITH CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 2-4 DEGREES IN THE
CACHE AND BEAR RIVER VALLEYS. STILL, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THESE AREAS BEFORE 8AM. TONIGHT, WITH
CLEARING SKIES, FOG CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE CACHE/BEAR RIVER VALLEYS, NEAR DEER CREEK
RESERVOIR IN HEBER CITY, AND ADJACENT TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE IN
WEBER AND DAVIS COUNTIES (30-50% CHANCE).
LUCKILY, THERE REMAINS HOPE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO UTAH,
POTENTIALLY MIXING OUT VALLEYS IN THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ROUGHLY 65-35, WITH 65% OF
MEMBERS FAVORING COOLER 700-MB TEMPERATURES (WHICH COULD MIX OUT
VALLEYS) AND THE REMAINDER FAVORING LESS OF A COOLDOWN AND
THEREFORE LESSER CHANCES FOR MIXING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
REBUILD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SO LET'S HOPE FOR THE MAJORITY
SOLUTION.
AVIATION...KSLC
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 18Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL TRACK
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING AFTER THAT. FOR
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH, BROKEN CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BY 19Z. CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY BY 00-
03Z. FURTHER SOUTH, CLOUDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE, SCATTERED
CLOUDS AFTER 00Z AND CLEAR CONDITIONS BY 06-09Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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