598
FXUS65 KSLC 311104
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
504 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE BEEHIVE (AND COWBOY) STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS NOW APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 106KT+ POLAR
JET.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PACIFIC COAST, SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. BY 21Z, 700MB FLOW WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 45-55KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN UTAH AFTER 21Z, REACHING SALT LAKE
CITY AROUND 23-00Z. THIS FRONT WILL BE UNDER A PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS DURING THIS TIME AND THE ASSOCIATED BAND
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -8C OR
SO BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
TO SNOW NEAR TO AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE
WASATCH FRONT SOUTH TO CEDAR CITY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH AFTER 18Z OR SO. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR APEX
AND FLIRT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH (ABOUT 10-20%
CHANCE IN NORMALLY WINDY LOCATIONS) AS THE FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH BETWEEN 03-09Z. ADDED THE SEVIER VALLEY
(PARTICULARLY NEAR RICHFIELD/MONROE) AND LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY
TO THE GOING WIND ADVISORIES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR NORTHERN UTAH
COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS THE TIMING IS MOST
PREFERENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS TO APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS EVENING (LIKELY AFTER 00Z). ANYONE WITH PLANS ON THE LAKES OF
SOUTHERN UTAH INCLUDING LAKE POWELL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ROUGH
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ALL THE WAY TO VALLEY FLOORS NEAR TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH, SOME
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
THE WASATCH FRONT WILL BE THE EASTERN BENCHES. CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS UP TO AN INCH VALLEY FLOORS, 2 TO 4 INCHES BENCHES (25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE RANGE). WILL NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN BENCHES,
HOWEVER, GIVEN A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY
MORNING, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE
I-15 CORRIDOR FROM NEPHI TO BEAVER. I-15 SUMMITS WILL LIKELY SEE
PERIODS OF WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED WINTER HEADLINES TO ADD UINTA COUNTY, WY, AND THE
SANPETE VALLEY (MOST IMPACTED NORTH OF EPHRAIM). WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE EASTERN BENCHES, TOOELE, AND THE WOODLANDS HILLS AREA
AS THIS LOCATIONS TEND TO DO QUITE WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WITH A MESSY LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REALLY TRAIL OFF BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYSHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO END TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WANTED TO
GIVE IT ONE MORE MODEL RUN.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)
TRENDS OVER THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD WILL BE GRADUAL, WITH A TRANSITION FROM COOL, WET WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY TO SUNNY AND MILD BY DAY 7 (MONDAY).
BY WEDNESDAY, A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US, WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW. THE FIRST WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THUS PRODUCING AROUND 4-8" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DAILY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE COLD CORE SITS
OVERHEAD, WITH FAIRLY LOW QPF THAT DECREASES WITH EACH DAY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS,
OWING TO THE EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY. VALLEYS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN
THURSDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS LOW HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A CLOSED
LOW FORMS. MODELS THAT DO HAVE THIS CLOSED LOW NOW SUGGEST IT
FORMS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THUS WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IMPACTS IN
EITHER SCENARIO. INSTEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE,
LIKELY REACHING NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY, WITH LARGELY QUIESCENT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY TO 25-30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER 18Z. WIND DIRECTION MAY FLUCTUATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY 200-260. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS, WITH AN ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME OF 23-00Z. EXPECT A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR
INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING, BECOMING
VERY GUSTY PARTICULARLY AFTER 19-20Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
30- 40KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH, AND GUSTS TO
20-30KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. BLOWING DUST MAY CAUSE VIS
REDUCTIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. ALTHOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT-MODERATE SHOWERS AND AN ABRUPT
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO AREAS NORTH OF ROUGHLY KMLF-
KHVE. MOST SITES WILL SEE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR UTZ108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ110>113-117.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ115-116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
TUESDAY FOR UTZ116.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR UTZ118.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR UTZ119-123.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ121-
122-126>131.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR WYZ021.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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