244
FXUS65 KSLC 191016
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND A
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO UTAH MID-WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
A CLOUD-FREE MORNING
STARTS OFF SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE REGION. THIS ALL WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY, INTRODUCING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES AND IMPACTS:
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH
PEAK GUSTS UP TO 55 TO 60 MPH.
- A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AREA SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF UTAH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UPWARDS OF 15 DEGREES COLDER, INTRODUCING
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WASATCH
FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, WE'LL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE UPTICK IN LOWER-
LEVEL FLOW IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH A FEW IN
SUPPORT OF 700MB FLOW REACHING TO AROUND 60 MPH OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. WITH DEEPER MIXING ANTICIPATED TODAY, SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AT
THE SURFACE, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS EAST OF EVANSTON BETWEEN 3PM AND
10PM. TRAVEL ALONG I-80 AND US-189 MAY BECOME DANGEROUS FOR HIGH-
PROFILE VEHICLES DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THESE WINDS RAMP UP. CONSIDERING THE THREAT FOR THESE STRONG
WINDS, HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR UINTA COUNTY FROM 3PM
SUNDAY THROUGH 3AM MONDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AHEAD OF, AND ALONG, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PAIR WITH STRONG LIFT AND KICK OFF A
LINE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BRING HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. AS THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH QUITE
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES, THERE IS LITTLE CONCERN FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO RAIN OR SNOW. THAT SAID, IF THIS LINE
OVERPERFORMS, THERE IS AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW FALL ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATION PORTIONS OF US-89
THROUGH LOGAN CANYON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND UPWARDS OF 3
INCHES IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS. OTHERWISE, ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE BEAR RIVER
MOUNTAINS, THE UINTA MOUNTAINS, AND THE CENTRAL WASATCH WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES.
BY 6AM MONDAY, THE PRECIPITATION SHOT WILL LARGELY BE DONE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW STRAGGLING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BY UPWARDS OF 15
DEGREES AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA, THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES... BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NONETHELESS. THIS COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WASATCH FRONT, LOWER
ELEVATION VALLEYS IN EASTERN UTAH, AND LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ONCE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION BACK TO A WARM SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM WEDNESDAY)
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM, THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST NOTED IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
WILL EJECT INLAND INTO THE LOWER COLORADO BASIN LATER TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO NAMELY SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH LATER WEDNESDAY ON
THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MINORS OUT ACROSS THE AREA WHILST BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH THAT TIME. ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN UTAH HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SOUTH/EAST CONTINUE TO BE THE AREAS MODEL
CONSENSUS IS KEYING IN ON. GENERALLY A HIGH(ISH) POP/LOW QPF EVENT
IS EXPECTED WITHOUT MUCH MORE TO NOTE PAST THAT.
WITH DEPARTURE OF THE ABOVE, TRANSIENT LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY STABILIZE THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, BUT ALL EYES WILL BE
FOCUSING UPSTREAM AS THE MEAN STORM TRACK TAKES AIM ON THE PACNW
WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE AR EVENT LANDING ON SHORE LEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NOTABLE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE BIGGER PICTURE REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT, BUT
SUBTLETIES IN AMPLITUDE ALONG THE PAC COAST REMAIN PRESENT (AS
EXPECTED) THIS FAR OUT. RESULT OF THIS LOCALLY?...UNSETTLED/ACTIVE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATER NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FAVORING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DAY 6-7 GRIDS REFLECT AN INCREASING TREND TO LIKELY POPS
(FAVORING THE NORTHERN TIER) AS A GOOD START, WITH FURTHER DETAILS
SLATED TO BE WORKED OUT IN TIME. BOTTOM LINE...THE ACTIVE OCTOBER
WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ITS CLOSE.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHERLIES IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AFTER 16/17Z IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 26KTS HOWEVER. A 70% CHANCE EXISTS
THAT NEAR WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP WITHIN THE 21-01Z WINDOW, WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRIVING NORTHERLY WINDS AFTER 01/02Z. WITH THIS
FRONT, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06Z, WITH AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC LIGHT SHOWERS INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AIRSPACE TODAY. SAID, THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WY THIS EVENING (INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS)
WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SWITCH FROM NORTH-SOUTH AFTER 23Z,
INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, AND NAMELY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS AND A
LOW END CHANCE (10%) OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH MTNS EAST INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR WYZ021.
SHORT TERM...WEBBER
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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