267  
FXUS65 KSLC 050211  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
811 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL  
BRING WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP  
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
 
 
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE  
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND  
INCREASING RADAR ECHOS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA  
AND FAR WESTERN UTAH. A SHALLOW BUT STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE  
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WILL SURGE INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH THIS  
EVENING, THEN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT LOCALES  
LATER TONIGHT PRIOR TO STALLING OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS, AS MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO THIS  
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD  
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS  
ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT, AS BACKING FLOW IN RESPONSE TO  
THE WAVE LIFTING INTO IDAHO WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE CONVERGENCE  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY PRIOR TO IT RETREATING BACK NORTH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FROM ROUGHLY SALT  
LAKE COUNTY NORTH AS SOME BRIEF BANDING OF THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKELY IN LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. SHOWERS MAY BE  
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED IN THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEY GIVEN THE  
STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT AID IN LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE DRYING,  
RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OR EVEN JUST VIRGA AT  
TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN LENDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED  
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL WASATCH, UINTAS AND WASATCH PLATEAU.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN  
STRENGTHENING TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS  
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY, LOCALLY STRONG WITH  
GUSTS LOCALLY UP TO 45 MPH OR SO ACROSS PRONE WESTERN  
DESERT/VALLEY AREAS. PEAK FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS  
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS THE NEXT  
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIURNAL DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED, BUT  
BANK ON GENERALLY BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THAT TIME.  
 
ALONG WITH THESE WINDS, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER  
NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH AN  
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT REGION ORIENTED ON THE FAR EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. IN LARGE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN  
SCATTERED FOR THOSE AREAS, AND A BIT DIURNAL IN NATURE.  
 
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)
 
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN REALLY  
GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS  
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS A LITTLE  
SHIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES  
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL BE THE TIME WHEN  
POPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BUT LOOKING AT THE  
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT BM AND 500MB ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND  
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AT THIS TIME DON'T SEE HOW ANY PRECIPITATION COULD  
OCCUR HERE. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS TO ABOUT 67% MEAN OF ALL MODELS,  
BUT BELIEVE THE MEDIAN WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER CHOICE BUT WANT TO  
TREND AT THIS POINT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE BEING NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY  
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION, BUT IT WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL,  
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z.  
CIGS WILL LOWER TO OR BELOW 6K FT AGL FROM ABOUT 12-18Z SUNDAY DUE  
TO SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. WINDS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH  
NORTHWEST (40% CHANCE) AS EARLY AT 13-14Z DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM  
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL, OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL LARGELY  
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MERRILL/CHURCH  
LONG TERM...STRUTHWOLF  
AVIATION...CHURCH  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab UT Page
The Nexlab ID Page
The Nexlab WY Page Main Text Page