075
FXUS65 KSLC 142146
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
346 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
A BROAD LOW IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
THIS CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN UTAH TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SEEING SOME ISOLATED 30-40 MPH GUSTS IN SOME OF
THE MOST PRONE AREAS WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. EARLIER
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE,
LIMITING ASSOCIATED TRAVEL IMPACTS. STILL, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RATES
IN THE CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP GOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR NOW. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH A BIT OF SMALL HAIL IN CENTRAL UTAH, BUT AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE ENERGY IS DWINDLING. OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, SEEING SOME
GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THOUGH WINDS
ARE MARGINAL FOR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME, WILL KEEP GOING WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THAT AREA.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH IN A
RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BETTER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING. ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN 5-10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MAIN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY LATE THURSDAY BUT A
TRAILING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. SOME SLIGHT WARMING
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND UP TO 5F BELOW
THOSE VALUES OVER NORTHERN UTAH.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)
THE MEAN PATTERN OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN LEAVES
THE GREAT BASIN IN A GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN EXITING TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.
WPC CLUSTERS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TO AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT CLIPS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF UTAH ON MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS SLOWER AND DRIER AND AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER WETTER...
AVERAGE TO ROUGHLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UINTAS AND NORTHERN
WASATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REST OF THE STATE LOOKS DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILD AREAWIDE THOUGH THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS OF THE TROUGH AFOREMENTIONED ON MONDAY SUGGEST AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN
WASATCH.
BY WEDNESDAY THE EPS MEAN AND EPS DOMINATED CLUSTERS SHOW AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRYING TO CLOSE OFF, CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA. GEFS
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FAVOR A FLATTER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING BY. THE FORMER (EPS) WOULD BE
WETTER OVER MORE OF THE AREA WHILE THE LATTER (GEFS AND CANADIAN)
WOULD BE DRIER ONLY FAVORING SHOWERS FAR NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL WINNER BUT
LOOK TO BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE AT OR BELOW 6000
FEET AGL WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ489-494-495-
497-498.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ128-130-131.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ111-
112.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ021.
TRAPHAGAN/BILLINGSLEY
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP
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