252
FXUS65 KSLC 011914
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
114 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 113 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
- LOCALLY OR MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND
SOUTHERN UTAH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK, PEAKING
EARLY NEXT WEEK ~5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL.
- HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/SW WYOMING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE (~25% CHANCE) THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE 4
CORNERS REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 113 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PNW IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. THIS, PAIRED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST DCAPE VALUES,
WILL RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING. MOISTURE IS LACKING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH INVERTED V PROFILES NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL MAKE
FOR A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN UTAH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION FOR THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS.
WITH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY AND MORE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA, ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE (~25% CHANCE) ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
WITH THESE SHORTWAVES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TREND WITH THESE
WINDS HAS BEEN A LITTLE DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS,
SO THE PROBABILITY OF NEEDING FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO
TREND DOWN, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THINGS CHANGE.
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
BY SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE STARTS TO GET ADVECTED INTO
THE AREA WITH AVERAGE PWATS IN THE 0.5-0.7" RANGE ACROSS THE AREA.
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL RESULT WITH TERRAIN BEING THE FAVORED
AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION, ISSUED 113 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW GUSTY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 6-8HRS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
LOCATION REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH-BASED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS KLGU AND KEVW OVER THE NEXT 6-8HRS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AND
MAY BE AMENDED.
FIRE WEATHER
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS PERSISTS WITH
WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ALSO
REMAIN POOR. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS SIMILAR
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT CRITERIA AS MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THOUGH FOR ANY
UPDATES ON FUTURE SHIFTS. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED DIURNAL HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES. MORE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNAL
TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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