291
FXUS65 KSLC 180916
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
216 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAKER INVERSIONS WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT OF HAZE THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
- PARTICULATE CONCENTRATION MAY INCREASE WITH TIME. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN HAZE (AT
OR BELOW 6SM) WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN UTAH VALLEYS ONCE
AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH LURKS IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. 80% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
LOOKING AT THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE LAST 36 HOURS, A DEEPER BOUNDARY HAS LIKELY ALLOWED THE
CONCENTRATION OF PARTICULATES TO EXPAND ACROSS A BROADER PORTION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON FEATURED NOTABLE VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS MOST NORTHERN UTAH VALLEYS, ALONG WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE NEXT THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN HAZE AT OR BELOW 6SM IS
TUESDAY, LIKELY AFTER THE MORNING COMMUTE. ONE BONUS IS THAT WITH
MONDAY BEING A FEDERAL HOLIDAY, LESS TRAFFIC WILL OCCUR DURING THE
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES...RESULTING IN LESS
INTRODUCTION OF ADDITIONAL PARTICULATES INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
FOR NOW, REINTRODUCED HAZE (MEANING VISIBILITY IS 6SM OR LESS) TO
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH TIME.
FOG IS UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EVEN AT KSLC, THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 7F.
WHILE YESTERDAY'S RUNS SUGGESTED AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF MARKEDLY
COLDER MID TO LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN UTAH FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THIS SOLUTION NOW FAR IN THE MINORITY AND
NOT REPRESENTED IN ANY OF THE DOMINANT CLUSTERS.
BY AND LARGE, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION, THOUGH TIMING VARIOUS FROM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY TO AS LATE
SUNDAY. AROUND 80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THIS WINDOW, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF CLUSTER MEMBERS SHOWING SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ADVECTION
TO MIX OUT VALLEYS AND VENTILATE ANY REMAINING PARTICULATES FROM
THE INVERSIONS OF LATE. TOO EARLY TO START HYPING NUMBERS, BUT
CURRENT SNOW TOTALS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE LATE MORNING, REMAINING
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH,
WITH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA REMAINING LARGELY CLEAR. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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