486
FXUS65 KSLC 010404
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1004 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH.
- BY THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM, THE CHANCE OF MODERATE HEATRISK INCREASES
ABOVE 50% ACROSS MOST VALLEYS OF UTAH WEDNESDAY, WITH
PROBABILITIES CLIMBING TO 60-70% OR HIGHER BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE STORY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS
A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN JET REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION JUXTAPOSITIONED BY A VERY DRY AND HOT AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH EACH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH, SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THESE AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE
OF THE BIGGER QUESTION MARKS WILL BE WHETHER THESE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MIXING...AND THUS BETTER DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. FOR NOW, EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL
BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
BY THURSDAY, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST UTAH. 700MB FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KTS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO BRING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. 700MB FLOW MAY DECREASE
AROUND 2-5KTS ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE TRENDS.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY...MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE LESS THAN 5% CHANCE
OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS SEEING AROUND
5-10% WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UINTAS WHICH WILL HAVE SEVERAL
THREATS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THAT'S A LOT OF WORDS FOR IT
WILL BE LARGELY DRY AND HOT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF HEATRISK REACHING MODERATE INCREASING TO
ABOVE 50% AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION. WINDS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME A BIT SQUIRRELLY AS A FEW WEAK HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
PASS THROUGH BETWEEN 06-09Z, WITH A LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS BRIEFLY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER
~17-18Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, OUTSIDE OF ANY ROGUE
GUST ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MOVING FROM THE WEST
DESERT TO KEVW BETWEEN 05-11Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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