590  
FXUS65 KSLC 192210  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
410 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD  
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS  
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS  
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS  
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR  
MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE SUITE OF RED FLAG WARNINGS IN  
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEARING THE UTAH  
BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. WHILE THE AREA IS QUITE  
DRY...A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE  
AREA. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES WOULD INDICATE ANY CONVECTION  
WOULD REMAIN QUITE WEAK BUT GIVEN THE DRY SUBCLOUD ENVIRONMENT...A  
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
AS THE TROUGH IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM SHIFTS EASTWARD  
THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY  
FURTHER. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS  
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK BY SUNDAY. THOSE WITH  
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE PREPARED  
FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, CARRY ENOUGH WATER AND CONSIDER  
POSTPONING STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ALSO  
PREPARE TO CHECK IN ON PEOPLE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING/SWAMP  
COOLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU ARE IN SLICK ROCK OR RED ROCK AREAS,  
THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE EVEN HIGHER IN THESE AREAS DUE TO THE  
ROCKS.  
 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF MID AND LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL PUSH TUESDAY INTO MUCH  
OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE  
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN MORE  
TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS...THOUGH THE EC IS NOTABLY CLOSER TO THIS  
SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z RUNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SLC THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER LONGER THAN USUAL INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 07-09Z.  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME EARLIER THAN USUAL ON SATURDAY, BY  
15-16Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER.
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS  
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. AHEAD  
OF THIS COLD FRONT, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE. THIS, COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES, WILL BRING RED FLAG  
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. AS HIGH PRESSURE  
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP  
ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MONSOONAL SURGE TO BEGIN  
TO IMPACT UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTNING AFTER A HOT  
AND DRY PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ484-492>495-  
498.  
 
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
KRUSE/CHURCH  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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