267
FXUS65 KSLC 050211
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
811 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020
SYNOPSIS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
INCREASING RADAR ECHOS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA
AND FAR WESTERN UTAH. A SHALLOW BUT STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WILL SURGE INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH THIS
EVENING, THEN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT LOCALES
LATER TONIGHT PRIOR TO STALLING OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS, AS MODEST CONVERGENCE INTO THIS
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT, AS BACKING FLOW IN RESPONSE TO
THE WAVE LIFTING INTO IDAHO WILL ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY PRIOR TO IT RETREATING BACK NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FROM ROUGHLY SALT
LAKE COUNTY NORTH AS SOME BRIEF BANDING OF THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKELY IN LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. SHOWERS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED IN THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEY GIVEN THE
STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT AID IN LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE DRYING,
RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OR EVEN JUST VIRGA AT
TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING EVEN LENDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL WASATCH, UINTAS AND WASATCH PLATEAU.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
STRENGTHENING TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SUNDAY, LOCALLY STRONG WITH
GUSTS LOCALLY UP TO 45 MPH OR SO ACROSS PRONE WESTERN
DESERT/VALLEY AREAS. PEAK FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS THE NEXT
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIURNAL DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED, BUT
BANK ON GENERALLY BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THAT TIME.
ALONG WITH THESE WINDS, CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH AN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT REGION ORIENTED ON THE FAR EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. IN LARGE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED FOR THOSE AREAS, AND A BIT DIURNAL IN NATURE.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS A LITTLE
SHIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL BE THE TIME WHEN
POPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BUT LOOKING AT THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT BM AND 500MB ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AT THIS TIME DON'T SEE HOW ANY PRECIPITATION COULD
OCCUR HERE. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS TO ABOUT 67% MEAN OF ALL MODELS,
BUT BELIEVE THE MEDIAN WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER CHOICE BUT WANT TO
TREND AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE BEING NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION, BUT IT WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL,
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO OR BELOW 6K FT AGL FROM ABOUT 12-18Z SUNDAY DUE
TO SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. WINDS COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST (40% CHANCE) AS EARLY AT 13-14Z DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL, OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRILL/CHURCH
LONG TERM...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP
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