638
FXUS65 KSLC 081022
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
422 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH TODAY.
HOT, BREEZY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT, WHILE A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED A DRY COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY STRETCHES
ROUGHLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH,
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH EUREKA TO NEAR EVANSTON. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL EFFECTIVELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
HOT, DRY AND BREEZY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MEANWHILE, A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE
INTO NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
CONFINED TO THE 80S ACROSS MOST NORTHERN VALLEYS.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY, HOWEVER BY THIS TIME AIRMASS MODIFICATION
WILL YIELD ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH,
WHILE MAX TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH RUN NEAR PERSISTENCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
BROAD, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE IS POSITIONED
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM BEFORE WILL BE THAT
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM SUNDAY, WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS.
THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNDER STRONG INFLUENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE MID
PORTION OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND. VALLEYS WILL
GENERALLY GET INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S MONDAY AND MID AND UPPER 90S
TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE PACNW LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST INTO A POSITION THAT WILL BE BETTER FOR MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO LATER
IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR NOT ONLY FORCING, BUT FOR
HOW MUCH OF AN ENHANCEMENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT THERE IS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY, WITH MID AND
UPPER 90S FOR MOST VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES. THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PRIMARILY AROUND MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE WILL BE MORE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THAN MUCH PRECIPITATION.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS, THERE COULD BE
MORE MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE MORE
CONFIDENCE WHEN THE ROUGH POSITION OF EACH IS KNOWN. REGARDLESS,
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 15Z,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH
02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
FROM 17-20Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND MUCH OF UTAH FROM 18-02Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM 17-20Z. FOR SOUTHERN
UTAH, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL FROM 18-02Z. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY FOR THAT PORTION OF THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH WILL
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT, A HOT, VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY. WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-15. MEANWHILE, A COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THIS FRONT,
WHERE RH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TODAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH SATURDAY ON
SATURDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
AGAIN BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ZONE 498. BEHIND THE
FRONT, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SURFACE BY MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH EAST OF
I-15, AND THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO ZONES 489
AND 494. MEANWHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN
COOL AND FAIRLY STABLE WITH RH TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ481>484-488.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ489-493-494-496-
498.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ277.
SEAMAN/WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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