020
FXUS65 KSLC 171012
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
312 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, THOUGH WITH WEAKER INVERSIONS THAN
THOSE THAT OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
- APPROXIMATELY 40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MID-
LEVEL COOLING WILL IMPROVE INVERSION CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS IS PRESENT ACROSS UTAH.
LOOKING AT MDCRS (AIRCRAFT) SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A
SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION CONTINUES...WITH LIMITED MIXING ABOVE
THE SURFACE INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH KEEPING INVERSIONS
RELATIVELY WEAK COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW
PARTICULATES TO SPREAD THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...AND THUS IMPROVING
VISIBILITY IN HAZE. CONTINUED TO INDICATE HAZE IN THE FORECAST,
BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING AT REPORTED VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT,
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN FOG IS FAR LESS PERVASIVE THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS, WITH A FOG BANK DEVELOPING NEAR THE SLC AIRPORT AND
PERHAPS THE PROVO AIRPORT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS BEING
REPORTED NEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE. DEPENDING ON
HOW THE INVERSION EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DENSE FOG MAY
INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD IN AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS WHEN THE INVERSION CONDITIONS MAY END, APPROXIMATELY
40% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW MARKED COOLING WEDNESDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PLAINS TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THE REMAINDER HOLD OFF UNTIL A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE INTERIOR WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NOW...NOT TRYING TO BE PESSIMISTIC...BUT ABOUT THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...
TO BE OPTIMISTIC, ~60% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT AT LEAST 0.01"
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. OR TO BE PESSIMISTIC, ~40%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION...KSLC
CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HAZE LINGERS IN THE VALLEY. SHALLOW FOG
DEVELOPING PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE AIRFIELD IS ANTICIPATED TO
EBB AND FLOW OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN RUNWAY THROUGH THE MID
MORNING. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
ENTIRETY OF THE AIRFIELD BEFORE 16Z. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
URBAN HAZE ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
REDUCTIONS TO VIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN
IN DAYS PAST. THAT SAID, CONDITIONS WILL STILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH FLOW REMAINING LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page