813
FXUS65 KSLC 302241
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
341 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, A STORM WILL
TRACK IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/5AM TUESDAY)
KEY POINTS:
- SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER SUNDAY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.
- ALMOST ALL OF LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL HAVE THE FIRST FREEZE
OF THE SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, A STORM
SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS IS ORIENTED FROM WESTERN UTAH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING. STRONG FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND
SNOW FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF UTAH TO QUICKLY END
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE-2 INCHES.
MODELS INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR POST-FRONTAL LAKE-EFFECT OR
LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LOCALIZED
ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND UTAH LAKE
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THAT TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION FROM OVERCAST THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND MUCH OF UTAH TO MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
LOCAL GUIDANCE IN COORDINATION WITH EXPERTS INDICATE THE END OF
THE GROWING SEASON IS AT THE END OF NOVEMBER THERE, SO OPTED NOT
TO ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINE.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WYOMING AND UTAH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE SET UP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO TRACK
IN FROM THE NORTH. A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO THE MOST RECENT ONE IS SET
TO TRACK IN TUESDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/5AM TUESDAY), ISSUED 239 AM MST
ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CHANCES FOR A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY HAVE INCREASED
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 40-60% CHANCE.
NOT A BAD IDEA FOR THOSE IN THE AREA TO CONSIDER COVERING OR
TAKING INSIDE ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS AS WELL AS WINTERIZING
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS, IF NOT DONE SO ALREADY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US -- THIS SYSTEM IS
SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS IN TERMS OF IMPACTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE, FAVORING THE MORE EASTERLY TRACK
THAT TAKES IT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BEFORE PHASING INTO
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN TUESDAY AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL FAVOR
THE NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT ESPECIALLY STILL REMAINS
QUITE A TOSS-UP AS H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -8 TO -10C TRANSLATES TO SNOW
LEVELS JUST AROUND VALLEY LEVEL. REGARDLESS, LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP US BUILD UP THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW SNOWPACK FOR
THE REGION.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WITH
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION...KSLC
MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED, THOUGH
SNOW/RAIN MIX CONTINUES TO LIGHTEN UP AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR AROUND 02-04Z
BRINGING MILD AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MVFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF OUR NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY SITES AS WELL
AS KCDC, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 02-04Z
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THIS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ110>113-117.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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