075  
FXUS65 KSLC 142146  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
346 PM MDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DRIER AND WARMER  
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)
 
A BROAD LOW IS CURRENTLY  
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.  
THIS CONTINUED EASTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN UTAH TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF  
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SEEING SOME ISOLATED 30-40 MPH GUSTS IN SOME OF  
THE MOST PRONE AREAS WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. EARLIER  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE,  
LIMITING ASSOCIATED TRAVEL IMPACTS. STILL, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE  
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER RATES  
IN THE CONVECTION SO WILL KEEP GOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN  
PLACE FOR NOW. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH A FEW SHOWERS  
ALONG WITH A BIT OF SMALL HAIL IN CENTRAL UTAH, BUT AMOUNT OF  
AVAILABLE ENERGY IS DWINDLING. OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, SEEING SOME  
GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THOUGH WINDS  
ARE MARGINAL FOR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME, WILL KEEP GOING WIND  
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THAT AREA.  
 
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH IN A  
RELATIVELY COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. GREATEST COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH BETTER SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING. ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON  
THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES  
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE  
EXPECTED TO RUN 5-10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 
THE MAIN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY LATE THURSDAY BUT A  
TRAILING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. SOME SLIGHT WARMING  
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING  
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND UP TO 5F BELOW  
THOSE VALUES OVER NORTHERN UTAH.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)
 
THE MEAN PATTERN OF AN  
UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN  
U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN LEAVES  
THE GREAT BASIN IN A GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE  
EASTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE  
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
AN EXITING TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH. OTHERWISE  
EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND  
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.  
 
WPC CLUSTERS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TO AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT CLIPS SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND THE  
NORTHEAST CORNER OF UTAH ON MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH SOME  
SOLUTIONS SLOWER AND DRIER AND AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER WETTER...  
AVERAGE TO ROUGHLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UINTAS AND NORTHERN  
WASATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REST OF THE STATE LOOKS DRY  
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND MILD AREAWIDE THOUGH THE SLOWER  
SOLUTIONS OF THE TROUGH AFOREMENTIONED ON MONDAY SUGGEST AT LEAST A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE UINTAS AND NORTHERN  
WASATCH.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY THE EPS MEAN AND EPS DOMINATED CLUSTERS SHOW AN UPPER  
SHORTWAVE TRYING TO CLOSE OFF, CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA. GEFS  
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FAVOR A FLATTER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT  
BASIN WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING BY. THE FORMER (EPS) WOULD BE  
WETTER OVER MORE OF THE AREA WHILE THE LATTER (GEFS AND CANADIAN)  
WOULD BE DRIER ONLY FAVORING SHOWERS FAR NORTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL WINNER BUT  
LOOK TO BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL  
THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE AT OR BELOW 6000  
FEET AGL WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A  
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT  
TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ489-494-495-  
497-498.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ128-130-131.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ111-  
112.  
 
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ021.  
 

 
 

 
 
TRAPHAGAN/BILLINGSLEY  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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