320
FXUS65 KSLC 251049
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
349 AM MST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN UTAH
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ENHANCED RUNOFF, WITH
ALL STREAMS, SLOT CANYONS, AND OTHER WATERWAYS RUNNING HIGH.
- A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 20 INCHES FOR THE
UPPER COTTONWOODS AND BEAR RIVER RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH.
- THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW FOR
VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
A PROLIFIC SOUTHERN SIERRAS LANDFALLING ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. SOME NOTABLE
STORM TOTALS THUS FAR: 4.44" FORSYTH BURN SCAR SENSOR, 3.40"
GARDNER PEAK SNOTEL, 3.53" I-15 AT MP 37, 4.10" SUU RANCH SNOTEL,
2.74" LAVA POINT RAWS. RIVERS ARE RUNNING MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL,
WITH THE MAINSTEM VIRGIN RIVER, NORTH FORK OF THE VIRGIN RIVER,
SANTA CLARA RIVER FROM NEAR PINE VALLEY TO BAKER RESERVOIR, COAL
CREEK ALL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT RISES. WHILE MAINSTEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, ALL AREA RIVERS, STREAMS, CREEKS,
NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND SLOT CANYONS WILL BE RUNNING HIGH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DO NOT
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS!
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH REMAIN OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUITE MESSY AT LANDFALL, WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION SPLITTING AND SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MONTANA AND
THE SOUTHERN SPLIT SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN SPLIT AS THE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE INTERIOR WEST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED RECORD LEVELS THIS MORNING, WITH
KSLC TYING THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE AT MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MANY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO FALL ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...BUT
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF RECORD WARMTH FOR THE BEEHIVE STATE.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE SHOWERY MODE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH THROUGH
AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. A LULL IN ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SPLIT CROSSES INTO
NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A MUCH MORE TYPICAL FOR WINTER
AIRMASS WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. AN ORGANIZED, SOMEWHAT
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THIS FRONT, REACHING THE WASATCH FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SNOW LEVELS FALL, THERE IS ABOUT A 10-15%
CHANCE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS THE
WASATCH FRONT BY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE
ON ANY SURFACES.
HOWEVER...
THE SECOND PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
(PERHAPS AS COLD AS -16C AT 700MB) AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS INCREASED THE THREAT OF
MEASURABLE SNOW FOR THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN UTAH TO AROUND
40-50% OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS AROUND A 0.2-0.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT KSLC, WITH UP TO 4
INCHES FOR THE BENCHES. SO WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
SNOW IS LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR SATURDAY MORNING, THIS SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS REALLY INCREASED THE CHANCE WE DON'T MAKE IT
PAST THIS WEEKEND WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE MOUNTAINS
OF UTAH FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WASATCH BACK FOR POTENTIAL ADDITION TO THE GOING
ADVISORIES.
WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WESTERN VALLEYS EXCEPT THE
TOOELE VALLEY, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. DAY SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH THREAT TO KEEP WIND
ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED THE WIND
GUST POTENTIAL, WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF PROBABILITY GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER 45 MPH.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER WILL GIVE US A BREAK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20-30KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, THOUGH GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DROP
OFF BETWEEN ~12-16Z AND BETWEEN 00-02Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING OFF AFTER
18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH ~16-18Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STILL, WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST, SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF 30-40KTS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE EVEN HIGHER WINDS, SUCH AS KTVY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR UTZ101-115-122.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ102.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
UTZ110>113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ112-
125.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR UTZ125.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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