759
FXUS65 KSLC 112300
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
400 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-20F WARMER THAN NORMAL.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH
REMAINED CLOUD FREE, HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINED DRAPED ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS THIS AREA IS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE STREAM SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PNW. THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CONFINED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT BASIN REGION (AS WELL AS THE ENTIRETY
OF THE SOUTHWEST). AS A RESULT FROM THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE,
EXPECT LARGELY CLEAR SKIES EACH DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING (10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE).
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS BEFORE WE INTRODUCE ENOUGH ENERGY FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM THAT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO BRING SOME MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH(CURRENTLY NOTED AS A WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA) IS SLATED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND/ EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THIS WAVE WILL
BE LACKING BOTH MOISTURE AND ENERGY. AS SUCH, VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. FOLLOWING IN THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME MOISTURE IN THE
REGION (LATE TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME).
WHILE A MAJORITY (75%) OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE BREAKDOWN
OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REVOLVING AROUND HOW FAR SOUTH THE NORTHERN STREAM PROTRUDES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL INFLUENCE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE SEE OVER NORTHERN UTAH/ SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS WELL
AS THE RESULTING TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION. TO
GIVE AN IDEA OF THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL EXISTS IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CURRENT 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE SPREAD
IN QPF FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-80 RANGES FROM 0 TO UPWARDS OF
1.2 INCHES! THIS SPREAD DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF ABOUT
PROVO WHERE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATION SPREAD RANGES FROM 0
TO 0.12 INCHES. BIG TAKEAWAY FROM THIS IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A
TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 02-03Z, THOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE EXCEPTION
BEING ACROSS SW-WY WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25KTS WILL RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR N-UT/SW-WY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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