764
FXUS65 KSLC 231148
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
548 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1040 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
- HEAVY RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, BUT AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO HAVE
ELEVATED FLOWS.
- PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS.
- COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1040 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
AN UNUSUALLY MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS
OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SPLITTING
PACIFIC LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THIS SPLIT IS NOSING INTO WESTERN UTAH AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EARLIER RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES, WAS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE THE BEST
JET SUPPORT WAS LOCATED. HOWEVER, THE MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
EMBEDDED HEAVIER RATES, THE PRECIPITATION WILL OVERALL BE MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE, LEADING TO LESS OF A RISK OF FLOODING. WITH
THE RISK OF RAIN PRIMARILY LEAVING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT, HAVE CANCELED THE GOING FLOOD WATCH. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHER FLOWS.
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER, KEEPING A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS,
WHICH HAVE BEEN ON THE MILD SIDE ALL WEEK, WILL TEND TO RUN 5-10F
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH.
AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLITTING LOW EXITS INTO MONTANA AND
BEYOND, THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY COOL WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE THREAT SPREADING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH
BY SUNDAY WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD JOG.
BY MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD, MOST LIKELY BRING
A DRY DAY TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH NO BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST, THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, MOST LIKELY RESULTING IN A WETTER THAN NORMAL
PERIOD FOR UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL TIMING, TRACK, AND
STRENGTH OF ANY INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS, HOWEVER, SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION
KSLC...AFTER A QUIET MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z, CONTINUING
INTERMITTENTLY UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
DIRECTION AFTER 20Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW, WHICH MAY
BRIEFLY CHANGE WIND DIRECTION, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY SOMETIME AFTER 00-
02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN UT THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING AFTER 16Z IN FAR NW-UT AND ARRIVING INTO
THE WASATCH FRONT AFTER 20Z. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STATEWIDE WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SITES SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES, WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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