895
FXUS65 KSLC 070831
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
131 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
STATE-WIDE NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UTAH, THERE IS A GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE MUCH OF UTAH WILL SEE AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED 6 INCHES BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
A WELCOME CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE BEEHIVE STATE MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD RIDGING REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CURRENTLY NEAR SAN DIEGO/BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION NOTED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW. A VERY ACTIVE AND VERY CHAOTIC NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IT IS NOT OFTEN THAT A FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
HAVE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATHS THAT INFLUENCE UTAH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN A FEW DAYS OF EACH OTHER (PATHS THAT GO
AROUND BOTH THE NORTHERN SIDE AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SIERRAS).
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO, THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS. UTAH DEQ CONTINUES TO FORECAST YELLOW/MODERATE
CONDITIONS FOR MOST NORTHERN MONITORED BASINS, WITH SOME IMPROVING
TO GREEN/GOOD CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY.
AS A STOUT 140KT+ JET MAX SHIFTS INTO THE OREGON/IDAHO AREA MONDAY
MORNING, THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT...700MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM AROUND 0 TO 1 C TO
-6 TO -8C ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...THE BEST FORCING FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
FRONTOLYTIC MODE NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH
VALLEYS SEEING LESS THAN 25% CHANCE OF 0.10 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OR MORE. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 0.10", AROUND 35% SOUTH OF I-84,
55-65% NORTH OF I-84, HIGHEST NEAR THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER. THIS
DISTRIBUTION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR A FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY. IF THIS
BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN COHERENCY FURTHER INTO NORTHERN
UTAH, AMOUNTS WILL TREND HIGHER GIVEN THIS IS A DECAYING NORTHERN
SIERRAS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (WITH IVT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF
90-95TH PERCENTILE).
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY...AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MUCH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WITH A PORTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING ANOTHER DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, THIS TIME AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS, ENHANCING AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT COMBINED WITH
A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY EVENING, SHIFTING SOUTH
AND EAST WITH TIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MORNING, LIKELY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION.
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS...THE
THREAT FOR VALLEY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH IS LIMITED. THE BEST
CHANCE IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST AROUND A 25%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOW IN THIS PERIOD FOR VALLEY FLOORS,
CLOSER TO 60% FOR THE BENCHES.
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A 60% CHANCE MOUNTAIN SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXCEED 6 INCHES BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, THERE IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER ISSUING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR MOVING
FORWARD.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN A TRANSIENT MID-TO-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT,
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING, THOUGH
PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 18Z. A SWITCH
BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18-20Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR
ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS A TRANSIENT MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT,
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY, EXCEPT KEVW
WHERE INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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