887
FXUS65 KSLC 242247
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
346 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN AREA FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM
BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA AT THIS TIME, TRACKING TOWARDS NORTHEAST WYOMING, WITH UTAH
REMAINING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. MOST OF THE FOG/STRATUS FROM THIS
MORNING HAS CLEARED OUT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AT H7 WILL COOL FROM NEAR -2 TO -3C ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AT 12Z THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN -6 TO -9C BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN VALLEY
INVERSIONS, WHICH WILL IN TURN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH CHANCES OF A
RETURN OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. AT BEST, WILL SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS, THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON MAXES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS COMPARED TO MAXES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMO TODAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE STILL ON BOARD FOR A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE WESTERN
CONUS. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING THE FIRST COUPLE OF STORMS AS ANYWHERE FROM
OPEN-WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO VARIOUS DEGREES OF A
SPLIT-FLOW SOLUTION. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. WITH THE OPEN-WAVE SOLUTION, PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECOND STORM POTENTIALLY
DROPPING IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION WILL ALSO TEND
TO BE A BIT DRIER, GIVEN MORE OF A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS, AND FAVOR
NORTHERN UTAH MORE. THE SPLIT-FLOW SOLUTION WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, IT MAY TAP MORE
MOISTURE AND RESULT IN GREATER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION (BUT
FAVORING SOUTHERN UTAH A BIT MORE). CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS LEAN SLIGHTLY (~55%) TOWARDS THE OPEN-WAVE SOLUTION.
PRECIPITATION SPREADS REMAIN RATHER LARGE, WITH THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS GENERALLY AROUND 0.1 INCH OR LESS WITH A 75TH
PERCENTILE OF 0.75 INCHES OR GREATER FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER, ONE THING THAT THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH
IS THAT IT WILL BE COLDER, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN SNOW LEVELS COULD
REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH 09-10Z IN WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTSIDE OF PERIODIC MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THIS EVENING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THIS VALID TAF PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE WILL CONTINUE TO AID
EROSION OF LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS, ALLOWING PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
TO DOMINATE THIS VALID TAF PERIOD. IN LARGE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
THOUGH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH 01-02Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page