961
FXUS65 KSLC 172118
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
318 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM FRIDAY)
THIS AFTERNOON, THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST WITH
ONE FINAL VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED THIS
FORECAST CYCLE REGARDING STORMS ACROSS THE UINTAS AND THE UINTA
BASIN DUE TO DRIER AIR PUSHING FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED, THUS
RESULTING IN POPS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA, TRANSIENT RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THE AREA DRY. WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS, THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP ISN'T EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TOMORROW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE POPS INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UT AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. MORE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM FRIDAY), ISSUED 318 AM MDT
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING'S
WEATHER WILL REMAIN MODESTLY ACTIVE MOVING FORWARD, WITH THE
HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVERALL.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION EARLIER IN THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD SHIFTS EASTWARD,
RESULTING IN OVERALL MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH ON
FRIDAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THESE STORMS
REACH ON FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON 1) HOW QUICKLY THE MID-LEVELS MOISTEN
AND 2) IF THERE IS MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM A WEAKENING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, MODELS FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK OF THIS LOW OVER NEVADA, MEANING THAT NORTHERN
UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE THESE SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT ON BOTH DAYS GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS, WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. SUNDAY WILL
BRING MORE ISOLATED STORMS, LIKELY TIED TO HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN LACK
OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH, WITH A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH
HELPING TO BRING DRIER AIR TO OUR AREA. A RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP
FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH, PRODUCING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL QUIESCENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS QUIET WEATHER MAY NOT
LAST LONG. WHILE STILL A WAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST TIMELINE, REMEMBER
THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN; AROUND 60-70% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH POTENTIALLY REACHING THE WESTERN US LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KSLC
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEST DEVELOPING AROUND 04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
DIURNAL LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER OTHER THAN KSGU AND KCDC.
FIRE WEATHER
A SYSTEM MOVING EAST OVER WY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE
UINTAS/UINTA BASIN. FOLLOWING THIS, A DRIER AND WARMER TREND WILL
CONTINUE SETTLING IN ACROSS UT THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING HUMIDITIES AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR SOUTHERN UT, FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NORTHERN UT, DRY MICROBURSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THIS, ANOTHER DRY AND
WARM PATTERN DEVELOPS TO KICK OFF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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