962
FXUS65 KSLC 300939
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
239 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN APPROACHING EARLY WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE REGION TODAY. COOLER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/5AM TUESDAY)
KEY POINTS:
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH 11PM THIS EVENING.
- AN EARLY WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4-8
INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES IN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS AND
PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED. THIS SNOWFALL
COUPLED WITH A VERY BUSY TRAVEL DAY (SUNDAY) WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT OVER THE HIGHER PASSES AND CANYONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (<3 INCHES) ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY THIS MORNING, AND
BENCH AREAS IN THE SALT LAKE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS (T-1") ARE POSSIBLE DOWN TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS OF THE WASATCH FRONT AS PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH INCLUDING ST GEORGE AND ZION CANYON TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A
RATHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN OR/SOUTHERN ID WITH A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY
CROSSING WESTERN ID. A 120KT UPPER JET ALONG THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE THIS TROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES WITH
RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TODAY.
ANTICIPATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS.
THIS LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH, FOLLOWED BY A
RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN IT'S WAKE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.
INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL RUN NEAR 4500-5000 FEET ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, AND AS COLDER 700MB AIR SPILLS INTO THE
AREA TODAY (AOB -9C ACROSS NORTHERN UT AND -7C ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON), ANTICIPATE SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. THE COMBINATION OF WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
CONTRIBUTION FROM PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT
ANY VALLEY SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT BENCHES ABOVE 4500 FEET WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 3",
BEFORE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4-8" WITH LOCALLY UPWARDS OF A FOOT STILL LOOK ON TRACK, AND THE
GOING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TERRAIN
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
AS THIS TROUGH AXIS EXITS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING, THE FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT ANY LINGERING OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. IN ITS WAKE A COOL AND
STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED IN ST GEORGE PROPER SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, WHILE MOST OUTLYING VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEYS INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT, AND
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/5AM TUESDAY)
ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS
LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY HAVE INCREASED WITH RECENT GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 40-60% CHANCE. NOT A BAD IDEA FOR THOSE IN
THE AREA TO CONSIDER COVERING OR TAKING INSIDE ANY SENSITIVE
PLANTS AS WELL AS WINTERIZING SPRINKLER SYSTEMS, IF NOT DONE SO
ALREADY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US -- THIS SYSTEM IS
SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS IN TERMS OF IMPACTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE, FAVORING THE MORE EASTERLY TRACK
THAT TAKES IT THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BEFORE PHASING INTO
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING IN TUESDAY AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL FAVOR
THE NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT ESPECIALLY STILL REMAINS
QUITE A TOSS-UP AS H7 TEMPS BETWEEN -8 TO -10C TRANSLATES TO SNOW
LEVELS JUST AROUND VALLEY LEVEL. REGARDLESS, LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP US BUILD UP THE ANOMALOUSLY LOW SNOWPACK FOR
THE REGION.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WITH
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION...KSLC
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THIS
MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR WINDS TO SWITCH BACK
SOUTHEASTERLY IF DRAINAGE WINDS CAN OVERCOME NORTHERLY FLOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BRIEFLY MID-TO-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THAT WILL BRINGS A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DECREASING CIGS/VIS TO MVFR AS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A WINTER STORM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
RESULTING IN MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN UTAH TERMINALS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AIRSPACE, PRECIPITATION WILL BRING TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL PASSAGE AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ110>113-117.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SEAMAN
LONG TERM...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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