161
FXUS65 KSLC 210941
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
241 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MILD, STABLE AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SOME LOCALLY
HAZY CONDITIONS.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF UTAH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF GAP WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY,
WITH ROUGHLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH NOTED
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER FAIRLY UNREMARKABLE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST REGION. THAT SAID, AT LEAST SOME EVIDENCE OF UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE NOTED IN THIS MORNING'S MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP
AS A TROUGH IS GRADUALLY CHURNING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC COAST. THE
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN TURN
RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE TO CLOUD COVER FILTERING THROUGH
OVERHEAD.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH,
THE PATTERN OVERHEAD WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH
THURSDAY ASIDE FROM THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL, AND DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY INVERSIONS AND SOME
INCREASE TO LOCALLY HAZY CONDITIONS. OVERALL THOUGH, NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO APPEAR AS THE SMALL PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS. AS HAS
BEEN THE TREND OVER THE PRIOR SEVERAL FORECASTS, THE CUTOFF TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SOUTHWARD, WITH ANY
POTENTIAL PHASING WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALSO
STILL FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH. AS SUCH,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
EVEN THEN, THERE ISN'T REALLY AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, AND FORECAST WATER AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER.
AS EVIDENCED BY NBM 25TH PERCENTILE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR ZERO, A
FAIRLY DRY SCENARIO IS STILL VERY MUCH POSSIBLE. 75TH PERCENTILE
AMOUNTS BRING A MORE BROAD BRUSHED 0.20" TO 0.40" OR SO FOR
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. CORRESPONDING SNOW LEVELS DO SUPPORT HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW, WITH CURRENT FORECAST CARRYING AROUND 2" TO 6" FOR SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WHILE MODEST FOR WINTER STANDARDS, SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY FOR THOSE HIGHER ELEVATION
ROUTES/PASSES.
WHILE CONTINENTAL AND FAIRLY DRY IN NATURE (EXCEPTING WHERE IT
CAN INTERACT WITH THE CUTOFF'S MOISTURE), THE DEEPENING NORTHERN
STREAM LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FAIRLY MARKED COOLDOWN
WITH IT, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MILD NATURE OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR, IT'LL CERTAINLY FEEL COLDER IF NOTHING ELSE. THAT SAID,
THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD ON JUST WHERE THE COLD AIR WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH SPILLS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW. AS SUCH, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE EXACT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST NUMBERS CHANGE A BIT IN COMING CYCLES.
THE OTHER PRIMARY NOTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED GAP WINDS FOR A PERIOD FOLLOWING PASSAGE
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH. GIVEN THE
PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT DEPTH/PLACEMENT OF
THE COLD AIR, THERE IS SIMILAR QUESTIONS TO THE ORIENTATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WOULD DRIVE
THESE GUSTY WINDS. FOR NOW, GENERALLY EXPECT SOME GUSTS IN TYPICAL
FAVORED AREAS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE, WITH AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE
OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH NOTED AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND TROUGH, THE PATTERN IS
STILL FAVORED TO RETURN TO SOMETHING MORE RESEMBLING WHAT WE'VE
BEEN MORE OR LESS LARGELY EXPERIENCING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SUGGESTING SOME SORT OF SOMETHING, GENERAL
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A RETURN TO ANOMALOUS POSITIVE MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W CONUS (FAVORING RIDGING AND HIGH
PRESSURE). AS SUCH, BOTH CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY TEMP/PRECIP
OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION...KSLC
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THIS
MORNING, THOUGH PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE MORNING. A SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IS EXPECTED AFTER
19Z. WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VALLEY HAZE IS EXPECTED TODAY,
RESIDUAL HAZE MAY RESULT IN SLANTWISE VIS REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY. OVERALL LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
PREVAIL FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS EXCEPT KEVW WHERE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MID-TO-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH OVERNIGHT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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