286
FXUS65 KSLC 021933
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
133 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS SHIFTS INTO
NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES DIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TRANSIENT RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE- AVERAGE WARMTH ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO KICK OFF SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST BEFORE EJECTING
INLAND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AROUND THE LOW WILL CREEP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH SHOW INVERTED-V PROFILES GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 800-1200 J/KG, WHICH SUPPORTS
DRY MICROBURST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH, STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
WHILE THE MICROBURST THREAT WILL DWINDLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. INCREASING INSTABILITY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
COURTESY OF UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE PASSING CUTOFF LOW
AND A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL REINVIGORATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT. DRY MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AREAWIDE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN, THE DRY MICROBURST THREAT IS MINIMAL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME LINGERING MOISTURE, BUT OTHERWISE A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN US
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 20 KFT, WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LARGELY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS, WITH DIRECTION SHIFTS AT FAIRLY
TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMES (SE ~03-05Z SUN, NW ~19-21Z SUN).
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL VFR
CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KTS) WITH DIRECTIONS FOLLOWING A DIURNALLY NORMAL PATTERN. SOUTHERN
TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL TEND TO TO SEE DIURNALLY
NORMAL DIRECTIONS AND MODEST MAGNITUDES.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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