736
FXUS65 KSLC 282216
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
316 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
A WARMING TREND KICKS IN TUESDAY, LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING /
THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES PUSHING EAST. IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TODAY, COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO USHER INTO
THE REGION VIA NORTHERLY FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS REINFORCED ALOFT AS A CUTOFF LOW
FORMS OFF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT TRAVERSES SOUTH ACROSS CA BEFORE
RETROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COLD COMPARED TO OUR RECENT TEMPERATURES, THOUGH IN REALITY, THEY
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS ALOFT WILL CLOCK TO WESTERLY AS THE CUTOFF LOW
RETROGRESSES FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING IN ITS
WAKE AS TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. PERSISTS. AS HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10F ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE CUTOFF LOW STALLS SOUTHWEST OF
CA. THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY, THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT PHASES INTO THE MEAN FLOW ONCE AGAIN
AND PUSHES INLAND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CA
COAST. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY AS CUTOFF LOWS ARE
TYPICALLY QUITE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
PARTICULARLY DUE TO ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. CURRENTLY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS HAS ROUGHLY ~75% OF ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A WEAKER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE CUTOFF LOW BREAKING DOWN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS CENTRAL UT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
GENERALLY FAVOR MODEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER ~25% OF ALL MEMBERS FAVOR A STRONGER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN UT, IF AT ALL, AND KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
REGARDING BOTH OUTCOMES KEEPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 10Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page