282
FXUS65 KSLC 101039
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
339 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY.
-THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW (WITH RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH AN
HOUR AT TIMES) ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3
AM AND 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
-ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. 50% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
-AFTER A BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER STORM CYCLE WILL BEGIN
MONDAY AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WITH ONLY THE FOURTH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED
SINCE JANUARY 1 NOW IN EFFECT, THE ACTIVE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR AWHILE IS BEGINNING. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA, SOUTH TO OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, FURTHER
SOUTH TO NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
IS APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PREVIOUSLY, SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE SUITE REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW,
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX, AND ANY
INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LANDFALLING ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE SUITE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS
THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS CLUSTER AROUND A DOMINANT SOLUTION.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS LIFTING FRONT THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH, WHERE
THE CONFLUENCE OF OROGRAPHICS AND WARM FRONT DYNAMICS WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED JET MAX, AS UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDS INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. IVT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 97TH
PERCENTILE OR SO WILL COUPLE WITH PREFERENTIAL OROGRAPHICS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO BEGIN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TYPICAL AREAS NEAR BRIAN HEAD AND THE
TUSHAR RANGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN AROUND 7500-8000 FEET ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY LOWER 7000 FEET OR SO THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH THIS ROUND
FOR THE BRIAN HEAD AND TUSHAR RANGE AREAS, WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES
ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE).
SIMILARLY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, FROM ROUGHLY THE WASATCH
PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS NORTH, DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW COUPLED WITH
JET DYNAMICS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW, STARTING NEAR TO AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING MORE SHOWERY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR
THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTA RANGES, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 15 INCHES
FOR THE UPPER COTTONWOODS (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE). FOR THE
BOOKCLIFFS/WASATCH PLATEAU, EXPECT 5 TO 10 INCHES (25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE).
AS THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AROUND 50% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION THROUGH
SOUTHERN UTAH AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS END THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR EXTENSION IF THE 50% OF
SOLUTIONS THAT BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW
BECOME A MORE DOMINANT SOLUTION.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION NEXT WEEKEND, THE ACTIVE STORM CYCLE
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. LOOKING THROUGH OUR 240
ON THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWS LITTLE THREAT OF THE BLOCKING
RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE WEST.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR
WINDS TO WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 12Z, DEPENDING ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY DECREASING
CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING PERIODS OF TERRAIN
OBSCURATION.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE
TODAY AS AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
MOVES INTO THE REGION. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH MAIN IMPACTS BEING LOWERED CIGS
RESULTING IN TERRAIN OBSCURATION. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6500
FEET, THIS BAND HAS A 30% CHANCE TO BRING A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO KEVW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ110>113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY FOR UTZ125.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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