590
FXUS65 KSLC 192210
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 PM MDT FRI JUL 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR
MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE SUITE OF RED FLAG WARNINGS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEARING THE UTAH
BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SURGE. WHILE THE AREA IS QUITE
DRY...A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES WOULD INDICATE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD REMAIN QUITE WEAK BUT GIVEN THE DRY SUBCLOUD ENVIRONMENT...A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS THE TROUGH IN THE ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM SHIFTS EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
FURTHER. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK BY SUNDAY. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, CARRY ENOUGH WATER AND CONSIDER
POSTPONING STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ALSO
PREPARE TO CHECK IN ON PEOPLE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING/SWAMP
COOLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU ARE IN SLICK ROCK OR RED ROCK AREAS,
THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE EVEN HIGHER IN THESE AREAS DUE TO THE
ROCKS.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF MID AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL PUSH TUESDAY INTO MUCH
OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/GEFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE GFS/GEFS...THOUGH THE EC IS NOTABLY CLOSER TO THIS
SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z RUNS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER LONGER THAN USUAL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 07-09Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESUME EARLIER THAN USUAL ON SATURDAY, BY
15-16Z.
FIRE WEATHER.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. AHEAD
OF THIS COLD FRONT, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THIS, COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES, WILL BRING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. AS HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS UTAH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MONSOONAL SURGE TO BEGIN
TO IMPACT UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTNING AFTER A HOT
AND DRY PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ484-492>495-
498.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP
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