028
FXUS65 KSLC 222204
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 PM MDT THU MAY 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AN ADDITIONAL WEAK
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE. A WARMING TREND REESTABLISHES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO/ NORTHERN UTAH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH/
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY, THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE THIS WILL HAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREA WILL BE THE COOLING OF TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES, WITH LITTLE TO NO COOLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS. EVEN THEN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RUNNING AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH REMAINING 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
TOMORROW, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH/ SOUTHWEST WYOMING WITH A DISORGANIZED LONGWAVE TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AS SUCH, SOUTHWEST WINDS
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE TROUGH
LINGERS. WIND GUSTS OF UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM ABOUT JUAB COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THIS,
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW-TEENS, WILL CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY), ISSUED 338 AM MDT
A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE GUSTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, DRIER LOWER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES COULD CREATE A LOW END RISK FOR SOME
MICROBURST WINDS. MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AS THIS TROUGH
SPLITS AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS A WEAK CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UPWARDS OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST THAT WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THAT SOME MOISTURE STICKS AROUND AS THE
AIRMASS DOESN'T COMPLETELY DRY OUT. THIS MOISTURE COULD TAP INTO
SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A CLOSED LOW THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND SLOWLY LINGERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION....KSLC
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, LIKELY
DECREASING IN SPEED AFTER ~02-03Z. WINDS MAY REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AROUND 5KTS, THOUGH COULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 10-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL UTAH,
LIKELY DIMINISHING HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY 01-03Z AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, PEAKING AROUND 25-35KTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24-HOURS AS A SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASE IN SPEEDS AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW-TEENS. FOR NORTHERN UTAH, A WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
BY SATURDAY, A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
REGION AND INTRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE (THROUGH
REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL). IN ADDITION TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES, INCREASED LOWER TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INTRODUCED, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREA, BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE
A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE LACKING, EXPECTING AN
OVERALL LOW CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN, RAISING THE OVERALL CONCERN
FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING. THIS COOLER AND (GENERALLY) WETTER
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
CONTINUES EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WEBBER
LONG TERM...MAHAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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