408
FXUS65 KSLC 191013
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
413 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING HIGH FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF UTAH THURSDAY.
FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF UTAH.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A POWERFUL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED NEAR THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH ARE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS, GETTING
STRONG INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE, BUT ALSO INFLUENCE FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO RECORD TERRITORY THROUGHOUT
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.
VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, WITH LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY CLOSER TO
110F. FOR KSLC, THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102F WOULD EXCEED
THE DAILY RECORD OF 101F. FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY NEAR, AT, OR EXCEED DAILY RECORDS.
FURTHER SOUTH, CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FEWER RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 40 MPH. WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS, THERE WILL BE HIGH FIRE DANGER. RED FLAG WARNINGS GO INTO
EFFECT AT 12 PM FOR MUCH OF UTAH.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT REMAIN A BIT
STRONGER THAN TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WINDS INTO FRIDAY. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACNW FRIDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS, BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP. GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL LAST
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SATURDAY)
A DRAMATIC PATTERN SHIFT IS ON
COURSE FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PNW WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THAT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES 20-30 DEGREES BELOW WHERE THEY WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY OOZE INTO NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
UTAH BY SUNDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL LIKELY PEAK ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH. THIS WILL ALSO PAIR WITH RH
IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ~5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 40S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN UTAH. SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH, INCLUDING
THE WASATCH BACK, BEAR RIVER VALLEY, AND SW WYOMING HAVE ~50% CHANCE
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND WEAKEN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RH IMPROVING. MEAN
TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STAY MOSTLY
DRY, WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THE SURFACE GIVEN
THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO REBOUND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING
AREAS NEAR BRYCE CANYON WHERE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IS REDUCING VIS
AND CIGS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND CLEAR
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WILL DIG SOUTHWARD. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
APPROACH AND THE RIDGE STAYS IN A SIMILAR POSITION, SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ENHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN RECORD TERRITORY THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF
UTAH, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF UTAH, WITH PLACES THAT ARE NOT INCLUDED MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS WHERE FUELS HAVE BEEN DEEMED TO NOT BE AS DRY.
MINIMAL CHANGE IS FORECAST FRIDAY, AS THE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST,
WHICH WILL COME WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. THAT WILL ENHANCE
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH SIMILAR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES UTAH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
MORE, BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYS
SIMILAR. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BE DRY, BUT IT WILL COME WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE FRONT TRACKS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH SUNDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ478.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ101>106.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
UTZ482>484-489-492>498.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...MAHAN
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WILSON
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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