332  
FXUS64 KSHV 240209  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
909 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR  
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 4 AM CDT DUE TO THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE WINDS WILL  
DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOWARD 4 AM, BUT EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH THE  
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS.THIS  
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
AND ALLOW THE WINDS TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL A COLD FRONT  
PASSES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 601 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR SKC AREAWIDE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS THIS EVE AS SOUTH  
WINDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,  
WHILE KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS SUBSIDE UNDER 10 KTS. MVFR CLOUD  
DECKS MOVE NWD ACROSS I-20 BY AROUND 24/10Z WITH MID LVL CIGS  
DEVELOPING AS WELL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FOG. CIGS  
MOSTLY BECMG LOW VFR TO POSSIBLE SCATTERED BTWN 24/15-17Z, EXCEPT  
POSSIBLY AT KTYR AND KGGG WHERE LINE OF STG TSTMS MAY BE ALREADY  
MOVG INTO BTWN 24/18-21Z. CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50 KTS IN  
STORMS AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO 55 TO 65 KTS. THESE STORMS MAY  
REACH KSHV AND KTXK RIGHT NEAR END OF THE 25/00Z FCST CYCLE, AND  
FURTHER EAST BEYOND END OF CYCLE. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF STORMS MAY  
ALSO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURG THE  
DAY. /VII/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO AN  
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW  
ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,  
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.  
 
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS AN  
UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND AN ADVANCING DRYLINE  
SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON MAINTAINING CONVECTION  
THROUGH THE EVENING. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 60S, COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AS  
UPPER-TROUGH OVERTAKES FRONT WILL ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS  
THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT  
ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING FEATURES IN MAIN SQUALL LINE. COULD SEE  
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX. TIME LINE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS SUCH THAT THE SQUALL  
LINE WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND SWING  
EAST, EXITING MONROE AND EL DORADO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY  
MORNING.  
 
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST  
LOUISIANA TO CLEAR BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO  
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE  
50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS  
RETURNING ON SUNDAY. A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO AGAIN  
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE  
30 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING SOUTH AND  
EAST THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND  
LOWS AROUND 60. /05/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 64 78 61 75 / 10 60 80 20  
MLU 64 79 64 79 / 10 20 90 40  
DEQ 58 73 52 71 / 10 80 60 10  
TXK 62 76 56 73 / 10 70 70 10  
ELD 61 76 60 74 / 10 40 90 30  
TYR 63 76 55 74 / 10 80 40 10  
GGG 63 77 57 74 / 10 80 60 10  
LFK 64 79 61 78 / 10 60 70 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR  
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.  
 
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR  
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.  
 
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR  
OKZ077.  
 
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR  
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.  
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-  
125-136-137-149-150.  
 

 
 

 
 
06/07/05  
 
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