745  
FXUS64 KSHV 220029  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
729 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EARLY UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER OUR FAR ERN PARISHES. ONGOING  
CONVECTION ACROSS THOSE AREAS HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE SIGN OF  
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, HAVE GONE AHEAD  
AND MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS. SEE NO REASON WHY  
HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS SHOULDN'T BE EXTENDED SEWD INTO NW LA, AS A  
WELL-DEFINED SQUALL LINE SEEMS IMMINENT, AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL REACH WELL SEWD INTO OUR REGION BY 12Z.  
 
WILL REEVALUATE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND MAKE ADDITIONAL UPDATES  
IF NEEDED. IF NONE ARE NEEDED, WILL LET THIS STAND AS THE OFFICIAL  
EVENING UPDATE. /12/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
LOW TOPPED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN LOW LVL  
MOISTURE BENEATH MID LVL CAPPING. LIMITED THUNDER AND CONFINED  
MOSTLY TO SE CORNER OF CWA AND FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
LIKELY DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH THE LINEAR MCS JUST GETTING GOING  
OVER CENTRAL OK BY THEN. A SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN SE OK  
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT INCLUDING POPS FOR POSSIBILITY OF  
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STG TO POSSIBLE  
SVR WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS AS  
THEY ENTER THE RED RIVER BASIN. HOWEVER, AS THIS LINE MOVES INTO  
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE AREA, EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO WEAKEN  
CONSIDERABLY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE STORMS ENTER THE HEART OF  
THE CWA. ONE TO NEAR TWO INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL CATCH  
MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.  
SOME OF THIS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF AREA INTO THE  
AFTN HOURS, DEPENDING ON THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF AS IT  
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AR. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE  
W-NW AFTER THE STORMS, MARGINAL AND FAIRLY BRIEF NATURE OF THESE  
GUSTY WINDS MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF LWA. AS THESE STORMS  
DEVELOP ALONG A PRE FRONTAL SFC TROUGH, COLDER AIR WILL NOT BEGIN  
TO ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT. TUESDAY  
WILL THUS BE ANOTHER DAY OF NW WINDS, IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE,  
WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND GOOD RAD COOLING TUE NIGHT WITH MOST  
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY IN  
DRIER AIRMASS THRU THE WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER UPPER  
TROUGH LATE WEEK./07/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 21 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BECOME VFR THIS  
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS ACROSS MLU/ELD FROM  
21/21Z-22/00Z. CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AROUND  
22/06Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED  
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS FROM 22/09Z ACROSS TYR/GGG/TXK/ELD TO 22/12Z  
ACROSS LFK/SHV/MLU. LINGERING CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH 22/15Z  
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND  
GUSTY. CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 22/18Z. /05/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 69 74 52 76 / 100 70 10 10  
MLU 69 76 56 74 / 60 80 20 10  
DEQ 63 71 49 76 / 100 30 10 10  
TXK 65 72 50 76 / 100 50 10 10  
ELD 68 73 51 74 / 80 70 20 10  
TYR 64 72 51 76 / 100 50 10 10  
GGG 66 73 50 76 / 100 60 10 10  
LFK 70 77 51 77 / 60 70 10 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
12/07/05  
 
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