071  
FXUS64 KSHV 171500 AAA  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
900 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 SM OR LESS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD  
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 20. THEREFORE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED  
THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER  
THIS MORNING.  
 
CN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 608 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
ALL KINDS OF FLYING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A  
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WHICH HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR TERMINAL  
AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. DEALING WITH LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY  
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS SOME OF OUR NE TX TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING  
CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE DAY,  
LOOKING LIKE FOG SHOULD LIFT NEAR THE I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS AND  
POINT SOUTH BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH LIFR AND VLIFR CEILINGS  
IMPROVING AND OR SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO LIFT  
AT THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS IF THEY LIFT AT ALL BUT CROSS SECTIONAL  
ANALYSIS SHOWING THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL TANK AT LEAST CEILING  
WISE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DENSE FOG  
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE  
TRIED TO TREND THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIODS IN THIS  
DIRECTION.  
 
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
13  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF NEEDED RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA LAST  
NIGHT, WITH RAINFALL QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MID  
MORNING. A VERY WET GROUND AND EASTERLY WINDS UNDERNEATH A STG LOW  
LVL INVERSION MAY RESULT IN A RATHER FOGGY MORNING FOR THE MONDAY  
AM COMMUTE, WITH CLOUD COVER BEING A POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR.  
ANOTHER STRONG AND FAST MOVG UPPER LOW WILL PULL THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAIN, BACK OUT OF THE GULF AS A WARM  
FRONT ON MONDAY. PCPN WATER VALUES THIS TIME AROUND WILL GREATLY  
EXCEED THAT WITH THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL  
POSSIBLE WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON TUESDAY, MOST LIKELY  
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED  
THUNDER AS WELL WITH THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF  
THIS FRONT. AFTER A BREAK IN RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A  
STRONG UPPER LOW WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL COME  
BARRELING TOWARDS THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BECOME UNSEASONALLY  
HIGH WITH LI VALUES IN THE NEGATIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
AREA AND DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS  
SEEM A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS TAPERING OFF POPS INTO THE  
EARLY WEEKEND FROM THE NW, WHICH WILL EASE CONCERNS ABOUT  
POSSIBLE WINTER WX FOR ANY OF THE CWA PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.  
ALTHOUGH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE WITH MID LVL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE  
VERY LGT AMOUNTS OF WINTER PCPN, MAINLY NORTH OF I-30, FEEL THAT  
CHANCES AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS NOT SIGNIFICANT TO PLACE MENTION THAT  
FAR OUT IN EXTENDED PERIOD ATTM.  
 
/07/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 64 50 66 56 / 10 10 30 60  
MLU 66 50 65 55 / 30 10 30 60  
DEQ 59 44 64 49 / 10 10 10 40  
TXK 58 47 64 53 / 10 10 20 50  
ELD 61 47 65 53 / 10 10 20 60  
TYR 62 49 65 56 / 10 10 30 50  
GGG 62 48 65 55 / 10 10 30 60  
LFK 67 52 67 60 / 10 20 50 60  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>003-  
010-011-017.  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ124>126-  
136>138-149>153-165>167.  
 

 
 

 
 
09/29  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page