797
FXUS64 KSHV 260821
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
321 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
THE WEATHER STORY AND HAZARD OUTLOOKS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM
RECENT FORECASTS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
EJECT EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND VEER ALONG A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK UP THE GREAT PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES,
THIS PERSISTENT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS WORTH
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BRINGING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX, AND
SOME CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER, PARTICULARLY TO OUR NORTHWESTERN
HALF.
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
ZONES AS OF THE 08Z HOUR, AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WHILE GRADUALLY TREKKING SOUTH AND EAST AFTER DAYBREAK
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST
REACHES OF THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, RECEDING IN
COVERAGE BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY REMAINS MUCH THE SAME AS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK COVERING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM
TYLER UP TO TEXARKANA AND ALONG I-30, EXTENDING JUST FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO CLIP THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. THE CHIEF MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND ESPECIALLY
LARGE HAIL, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THESE SAME ZONES ARE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
OF TRAINING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TODAY
LOOK EASILY POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-30.
TODAY'S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 80S
SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES, AND A WARMER SATURDAY AS MORE SITES REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE "IN-BETWEEN" DAY OF THIS
STRETCH, WHERE WE WILL NOT SEE A DEFINED LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RIPE FOR RENEWED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND A SLIVER OF SLIGHT RISK ON OUR NORTHWESTERN CORNER, ACCOMPANIED
BY A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF ERO RISKS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, BUT AT REDUCED CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO FRIDAY
AND SUNDAY.
/26/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SECOND OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS NORTHEASTWARD JOURNEY UP THE
PLAINS, SWINGING ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION INTO
THE ARKLATEX. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A DEFINED BREAK BETWEEN
SATURDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SUNDAY'S CONVECTION, THUS IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AHEAD OF
THE ARRIVAL OF SUNDAY'S STORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THE OUTLOOK
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SIZABLE SWATH ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHWESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE BEING CONSIDERED LIKELY, WITH
EMPHASIS ONCE AGAIN ON DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INDEED ALSO BE
THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS. BY THE TIME ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1-2
INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO AS HIGH AS 4+ INCHES IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH MANY AREA WATERWAYS STILL QUITE FULL, A
RETURN TO FLOOD STAGES CLOUD BE QUICKLY ACHIEVED, AND THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD NECESSITATES AS MUCH VIGILANCE AS THE SEVERE THREAT.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS AND SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK, AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW FUNNELS CONTINUED MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE ONGOING RAINFALL BUT
WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGHOUT, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
MVFR CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS E TX TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD, WITH THESE CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER E INTO WRN
LA/SW AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELD/MLU SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z, BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CIGS RETURNING AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS, BEFORE POSSIBLY
AFFECTING SHV BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO
LATE EVENING OVER DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA, AND QUICKLY SPREAD N ACROSS
E TX/N LA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND INTO SW AR AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY. THESE CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING/RETURNING TO VFR. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVER E TX,
WILL INCREASE TO 12-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 72 88 71 / 20 30 10 10
MLU 85 69 87 67 / 0 20 10 0
DEQ 76 65 81 65 / 80 40 60 40
TXK 81 70 85 69 / 50 40 40 20
ELD 83 66 86 66 / 20 30 20 10
TYR 80 70 85 70 / 70 30 20 30
GGG 82 70 86 70 / 50 30 20 20
LFK 84 70 87 70 / 30 20 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15
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