853
FXUS64 KSHV 200235
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
DISCUSSION
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES HAS
DIED QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM DYING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. DESPITE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
DISTURBANCES HEADED OUR WAY FROM OUT WEST. FOR THIS REASON...FEEL
LIKE ITS A SAFE BET TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST
TONIGHT.
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS AS 24HR
CHANGES ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT...13.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INITIALLY WITH PRIMARILY A FEW MID
CLOUDS AND BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST LEFT OVER FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX. LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING MOST
TAF SITES BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AND A FEW ISOLATED SITES MAY EVEN DROP INTO LIFR. CIGS/VSBYS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY NOON. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION BETWEEN 20/19Z-21/02Z BUT CHANCES/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
/09/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 92 72 93 73 / 10 20 10 10 10
MLU 72 93 70 94 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
DEQ 68 90 69 93 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
TXK 69 90 72 93 71 / 10 20 10 10 10
ELD 67 92 69 93 68 / 10 10 10 10 10
TYR 73 93 73 93 72 / 10 20 10 10 10
GGG 71 93 72 93 71 / 10 20 10 10 10
LFK 73 94 72 93 71 / 10 20 10 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
13/09
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