473  
FXUS64 KSHV 201225  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
725 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS  
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED BUT SOME SCATTERED  
DECKS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING IN ADDITION TO HIGH  
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY  
LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD  
FRONT ADVANCING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.  
THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST, AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY SPREAD  
INTO OUR TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE  
MOMENT, HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AND WILL DEFER  
TO THE NEXT TAF CYCLE FOR ANY CHANGES ON POTENTIAL TEMPO THUNDER.  
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TRENDING S/SE AT  
5-10 KTS TODAY AND THEN RETURNING TO LGT/VRBL AFTER 21/00Z. ANY  
CONVECTION THAT LINGERS INTO THE EVENING SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. /19/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
LOW STRATUS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN NORTHWARD THIS MORNING  
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS  
WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. LOOKING OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, AN ACTIVE  
RADAR SCOPE REVEALS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPROACHING THE DFW METRO  
AREA ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH, A REMNANT MCV  
CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE METROPLEX AS WELL. EXACTLY  
WHAT THIS SPELLS FOR OUR REGION TODAY IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION,  
BUT THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE  
SCENARIO WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEING GENERATED ALONG A LARGE  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN LIKELY  
MERGING WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCING MCV LATER THIS MORNING. THE  
CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK EAST OF I-35, ARRIVING IN NORTHEAST TX  
TOWARD MIDDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT TO MID CHANCE POPS  
ACROSS OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES TODAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS FARTHER EAST WHERE MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 90S  
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST HALF WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER  
OFF WITH HEATING LOSS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT THE ADVANCING COLD  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST BEFORE STALLING ACROSS OUR  
REGION LATER MONDAY MORNING.  
 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS BY COMPARISON TO TODAY.  
THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT LATER ON MONDAY EVENING AS  
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ONCE AGAIN SO EXPECT  
MUCH OF THE SAME WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY INTO  
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS PATTERN  
SHIFT IS TWOFOLD, MUCH WELCOME RAINFALL AND A SLIGHT DROP-OFF IN  
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.  
SUFFICE IT TO SAY RECORD HIGHS SHOULD NOT BE IN JEOPARDY OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH IS CERTAINLY A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE RECENT  
HEAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED. /19/  
 
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO  
INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT. AS WE MOVE  
INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WE WILL WATCH FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF  
MEXICO AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS  
THE SE LA GULF COAST, FURTHER ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED  
CONVECTION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS  
THAT A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN  
PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WITH IT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN  
MOVING INTO OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH  
SHOULD HELP TO LIFT THE NORTHERN GULF TROUGH NORTHWARD FURTHER  
ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION PROCESS ACROSS OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY  
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE PRECIPITATION  
TRYING TO TAPER OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE DAY 7 OF THE  
FORECAST.  
 
LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF  
NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPECTED BUT  
LEFT OVERNIGHT LOWS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED, IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE  
LOWER 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 91 72 90 70 / 20 20 40 20  
MLU 92 72 90 69 / 20 20 50 20  
DEQ 87 68 88 66 / 30 30 30 20  
TXK 90 70 87 69 / 20 30 40 20  
ELD 90 70 88 67 / 20 20 50 20  
TYR 88 70 88 70 / 40 30 30 10  
GGG 89 70 89 69 / 20 20 40 10  
LFK 91 70 90 69 / 20 20 20 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
19/13  
 
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