064  
FXUS64 KSHV 211435  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
935 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION  
THIS MORNING WITH THE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY HELPING TO  
ADVECT SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.  
MORNING PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWING 1.6 IN VALUES ROUGHLY NEAR AND TO  
THE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ATTM. FOR THIS REASON AND THE FACT  
THAT THERE IS NOTHING ALOFT THAT WOULD ACT TO IGNITE SCATTERED  
TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE  
VARIETY FOR THE UPCOMING AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO MADE SOME  
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS BUT ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN THE BALLPARK  
INCLUDING HOURLY TEMP/DEWPT GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY  
ATTM.  
 
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT SHORTLY...13.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 604 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
MVFR/IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO  
VFR BY 21/14Z WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CU AT 5KFT BY 21/17Z. COULD SEE  
VCTS CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS AFTER 21/18Z, DIMINISHING BY  
22/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREA  
TERMINALS AROUND 22/10Z. OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS  
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY TO BECOME 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 22/00Z.  
 
/05/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 10 10  
MLU 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10  
DEQ 93 74 93 73 / 20 10 30 60  
TXK 93 75 93 74 / 20 10 20 30  
ELD 94 75 94 74 / 20 10 20 20  
TYR 95 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 20  
GGG 95 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 10  
LFK 96 74 94 75 / 20 10 20 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
05/13  
 
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