551  
FXUS62 KJAX 300106  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
906 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS  
BEGINNING TUESDAY...  
   
UPDATE
 
 
DRY AND VERY WARM CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS SE GA AND NE FL THIS  
EVENING AS ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE HAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE I-95  
CORRIDOR AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND. VERY  
LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AS HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE  
MOVING ACROSS THE SE U.S. FROM CNTRL GA INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS  
EVENING HAS KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA  
RIVER BASIN. AS THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER/STORM ACROSS INLAND SE GA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING  
OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PUSHES ACROSS  
THE REGION. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 70S ALONG  
THE COAST. THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW OUT OF THE GOMEX WILL SUPPORT  
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND NE FL ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR  
TOWARDS MORNING. ON TUESDAY...HI PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND  
ALOFT OVER THE FL PENINSULA CONTINUES TO GET PUSHED SE INTO THE  
ATLC AS TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY AND PUSHES MORE  
DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH COOLER MID LEVEL  
TEMPS AROUND 500MB FALLING TO -10C OR LESS WILL INCREASE  
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR BOTH SEA BREEZES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE  
AS THEY MOVE INLAND IN THE WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW. HIGH TEMPS  
INTO THE 90-95 DEG RANGE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED  
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH  
INLAND THEN OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING STORMS CRASH INTO EACH OTHER  
OVER INLAND AREAS THEN TRACK OFF TOWARDS THE EAST SLOWLY PUSHING  
BACK TOWARDS THE ATLC COAST AND SOME INTO THE COASTAL WATERS  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT  
TIMES ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW STILL SUPPORTS SOME POSSIBLE  
MVFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING AT KGNV/KVQQ AS HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS  
MOVE OUT OF THE GOMEX AND ACROSS INLAND NE FL. BETTER CHANCES OF  
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER 18-19Z DUE TO SEA BREEZE  
PUSHING INLAND AND HAVE ADDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, THEN WEST TOWARDS  
MORNING. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE MORNING  
WILL LEAD TO LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON  
WITH SEAS STILL GENERALLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. WIDELY SCATTERED  
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LAND BASED STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 69 91 69 90 / 10 20 10 30  
SSI 76 89 73 86 / 10 40 30 40  
JAX 71 93 72 90 / 10 40 30 50  
SGJ 73 91 74 88 / 0 40 40 40  
GNV 69 94 70 92 / 0 30 20 40  
OCF 69 94 70 92 / 0 20 20 40  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
HESS/ELSENHEIMER/CORLESS  
 
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