803  
FXUS62 KJAX 240031  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
831 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
SHOWERS HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION EARLIER  
THIS EVENING. A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
I-75 CORRIDOR DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF MOIST WSW STEERING FLOW  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF  
WATERS AND PUSHING INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY / I-75 CORRIDOR AS  
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS  
MONDAY, THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF NE FLORIDA AS THE MORNING  
PROGRESSES. THIS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF  
I-10 WITH MAINLY ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
IN THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THERE  
WILL BE A AN IMPULSE APPROACHING SE GA IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE A  
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH CONVECTION LIKELY MAINLY NORTH  
OF I-10 INTO SE GA WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE DURING  
THE AFTERNOON. AN INCREASED WSW STEERING FLOW AROUND 15-20 KTS  
ONCE AGAIN WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP IT AT BAY  
FOR MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY  
WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10  
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND  
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE SE GA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR TONIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF HYBRID SCENARIO OF STRATUS  
AND PATCHY FOG IMPACTING GNV DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TOMORROW  
MORNING AFTER 09Z PER HRRR/SREF GUIDANCE, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN  
FORECAST YET. LIGHT SSW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  
STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY MORNING.  
THESE SHOWERS (WITH SOME ISOLD BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) MAY  
MOVE INTO GAINESVILLE BETWEEN 09 TO 12Z, THEN OVERSPREAD THE  
COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS WITH POTENTIAL INTERMITTENT  
HIGH END MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH TEMPO CLOUD DECK AT 3000 FEET.  
ACROSS SE GA THERE WILL BE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH BRIEF FLIGHT  
RESTRICTION ARE POSSIBLE FOR KSSI WITH SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME  
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL  
RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS TONIGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE WATERS AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EDGE SOUTH  
TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL  
CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS WITH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS OVER NEAR  
SHORE EXPECTED AND THUS NO HEADLINE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL  
POSITION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH  
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS  
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH AN INCREASE IN  
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MIDWEEK.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 75 92 74 92 / 20 60 30 60  
SSI 77 90 77 90 / 30 50 20 60  
JAX 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 10 60  
SGJ 74 89 75 90 / 20 40 20 50  
GNV 73 88 73 92 / 30 50 10 50  
OCF 73 88 73 92 / 30 50 20 30  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CORDERO/SHASHY/PETERSON  
 
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