050
FXUS62 KJAX 041848
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUES)
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY...BUT HOT...4TH OF JULY FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE ZONES WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION AND WILL KEEP 20% POPS
THERE THROUGH EARLY EVE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT WHICH
WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND HELP PRECLUDE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL BUT MAY
SEE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS (STRATUS) LATER TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT BY LATE
IN THE DAY AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS GOING FOR THE FAR NW ZONES.
HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS GOING FOR EXTREME SE ZONES WHERE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION WILL PRODUCE A FEW STORMS THERE. UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING
UP MON-TUES AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH POPS AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED WERE MADE. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES INCLUDE OLD SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY/DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH ISOLD CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLC
SBRZ BOUNDARY HAVE POSTED JUST VCTS IN TAF SITES AS BOUNDARY MOVES
SLOWLY INLAND. WITH SWLY LLVL FLOW RETURNING TONIGHT EXPECT SOME
PATCHY FOG/LOW LEVEL STRATUS TO IMPACT NERN FL WITH SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KGNV/KVQQ...BUT HAVE KEPT THEM SCTD AT OTHER TAF SITES.
MARINE
NO HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY AS S/SW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF...BUT
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SERN U.S. EXPECTED TO TRACK
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL PUSH SW WINDS INTO THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH
GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE MARINE ZONES MORE
FREQUENTLY.
FIRE WEATHER
LATEST OBSERVATIONS STILL SUPPORT 3-5 HR DURATIONS BELOW 35 PERCENT
RH ACRS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING AND WILL LEAVE
RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE. NO FURTHER RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 95 73 89 / 0 30 40 60
SSI 75 92 76 88 / 0 20 30 60
JAX 72 95 75 89 / 10 20 30 60
SGJ 75 92 75 89 / 20 20 20 50
GNV 70 93 73 89 / 10 20 20 50
OCF 71 94 73 90 / 20 20 20 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COLUMBIA-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
PP/JH/PK
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