251
FXUS62 KJAX 071410
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE
UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FLOW AT 250 MB IS ZONAL OVER OUR FORECAST WITH
FLOW OUT OF THE SW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLY OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AROUND T.S. IDA. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOTED OVER THE THIS AREA. WE ANTICIPATE ONCL SCT CI OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SW AND W. AT SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER ERN NC WITH RIDGE INTO THE MS/LA
AREA. NE TO E FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW
LEVELS AND EARLY VIS DOES SHOW SCT STRATO CU ADVECTING IN OFF THE
ATLC. THE JAX SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 900 MB SO A
FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO ABOUT 3600 FT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENE AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND ELY AROUND 10 KT INLAND. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S INLAND.
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND SKY CONDITIONS...NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
VFR TODAY WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCU EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR
THE TAFS. WINDS ENE ABOUT 10-12 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
MARINE
MARINE OBS SHOW WINDS ARE ELY 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 19 KT.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY AVERAGING 3-5 FT PER RECENT REPORTS. S OF OUR
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. MAY GO AHEAD AND SCALE BACK THE SCA TO
SCEC HEADLINE FOR TODAY BUT KEEP UP TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS
MAY STILL BE BORDERLINE AT SCA CRITERIA.
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SHASHY/DEESE/WALKER
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