818  
FXUS62 KJAX 260756  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
356 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/
 
 
TODAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE  
S/SW AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER  
80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AS SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND  
FROM BOTH COASTS. THE MORE SW SFC WINDS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE  
SMOKE FROM THE WEST MIMS WILDFIRE INTO COASTAL SE GA AND THE  
BRUNSWICK METRO AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS CLOSER TO THE FIRE  
LOCATION IN CHARLTON/NASSAU COUNTIES WILL STILL HAVE SOME SMOKE  
THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE STILL TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN DESPITE  
SEA BREEZE FRONTS PUSHING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
TONIGHT...THE S/SW STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND  
THIS WILL LEAD TO MILDER TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND  
AND MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
SMOKE FROM THE WEST MIMS WILDFIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY  
COASTAL SE GA FROM WAYCROSS TO BRUNSWICK.  
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/
 
 
HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY RISE ON THURSDAY DESPITE AN APPROACHING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION  
OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE HEAT WILL BUILD BOTH  
DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP THE SEABREEZE  
PINNED AT OR NEAR THE COAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD  
ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A  
LITTLE MORE RELAXED ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO  
PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SOME RELIEF FROM  
THE HEAT AT THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH,  
IT WILL BE NICE AND WARM WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS.  
 
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL STALL OUT WELL UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA,  
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST  
GEORGIA TO PERHAPS SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR  
NORTHWESTERN ZONES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ELSEWHERE, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ON  
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY  
AS THE SEABREEZES MOVE INLAND AND COLLIDE LATE IN THE DAY,  
INTERACTING WITH THE NEAR RECORD HEAT.  
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL  
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BRING EVEN MORE RELIEF  
FROM THE HEAT NEAR THE COAST. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT HOWEVER WILL  
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S ACROSS INLAND  
LOCATIONS.  
 
ON SATURDAY, ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SEABREEZE  
ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE  
AVAILABLE. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE HOT AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF  
A FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH  
SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, AND BRING WITH IT OUR  
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE  
WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE  
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN  
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DRIER AIR  
PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDS AT NE FL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE SOME MVFR  
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KSSI.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 10-15 KNOT SPEEDS WILL  
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROF, THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO 10-15  
KNOTS FOR FRI/SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERLY INCREASE STARTS ON  
SUNDAY BACK INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT FEET  
EXCEPT CLOSER TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONGER  
SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIDE-SHORE SOUTHERLY  
FLOW. LONG PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 1 FT NOTED AT THE NEARSHORE BUOYS  
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MODERATE RISK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
PREVAILING WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST  
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH INLAND, BUT THE SEABREEZE WILL BRING  
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENTILE RANGE BUT  
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.  
 
ON THURSDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 18 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. RH VALUES WILL  
ONCE AGAIN SETTLE INTO THE 30 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE  
AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE  
MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE A LOW  
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 87 60 87 66 / 0 0 20 10  
SSI 79 68 85 71 / 0 0 10 10  
JAX 85 63 91 68 / 0 0 10 10  
SGJ 82 66 88 71 / 0 0 10 10  
GNV 85 62 90 66 / 0 0 10 0  
OCF 85 62 91 67 / 0 0 10 0  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
HESS/SHULER/  
 
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