401  
FXUS62 KJAX 251911  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
311 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
NEAR TERM
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES  
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MOVING SLOWLY EAST WITH THE  
ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. THE  
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST INTO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH A SURFACE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND  
APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW LOOKS  
LIKE THE UPPER PATTERN AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A SEVERE EVENT AT THIS TIME.  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE BETWEEN  
1/4 AND 1/2 INCHES. THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER NOR IS  
IT LIKELY TO REDUCE CURRENT THE ABOVE NORMAL DRYNESS.  
   
SHORT TERM /THRU MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ANY REMAINING CONVECTION...WHICH APPEARS WILL BE ALONG THE I-75  
CORRIDOR...WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING AFTER THE LOSS OF  
HEATING. MID LEVEL IMPULSES BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE BROAD RIDGING OVER  
THE AREA AND IN COMBINATION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZES  
WILL HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ANY  
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING WILL FADE IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS  
OF HEATING. HIGH TEMPS REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND AND MID/UPPER  
70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COAST.  
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY-SATURDAY/
 
 
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED WITH A MID/UPPER RIDGE MOVING  
OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE OVER THE AREA  
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA WED-THUR...IN  
BETWEEN RIDGES...BRINGING A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO  
SOUTHEAST GA BUT CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE. A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FRIDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLE STORMS. DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH  
THE GFS DIGGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND  
THEREFORE MUCH WETTER. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MODELS AND  
HAVE 40-50% POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. TEMPS WILL RUN MUCH ABOVE  
NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS  
INLAND AREAS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
THE CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS AND MARINE STRATOCUMULUS  
LAYERS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET TODAY WITH THE  
INLAND CUMULUS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE BETWEEN 120 AND 150 DEGREES AT  
10 TO 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO 16 KNOTS. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL DECOUPLE  
TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW AND ENOUGH MIXING FOR  
LIGHT FOG/MIST ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND STATIONS SUCH AS KVQQ AND  
KGNV.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WE  
WILL MAINTAIN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE  
CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS  
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LARGE  
LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TO SEE IF A SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA  
LATER NEXT WEEK.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY WITH A  
CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
FIRE WX
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE STALLING WELL TO THE  
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS INLAND  
AREAS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
AFTERNOONS AT THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS AND WILL PUSH INLAND  
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AREA-WIDE THROUGH  
MONDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 61 80 59 83 / 50 50 20 20  
SSI 62 75 61 75 / 20 30 0 10  
JAX 60 81 58 81 / 20 40 10 10  
SGJ 62 78 60 77 / 10 20 0 0  
GNV 59 81 57 83 / 30 40 20 20  
OCF 59 81 58 83 / 20 40 10 10  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL  
DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
ACS/PP/NM  
 
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