418  
FXUS62 KJAX 191935  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
235 PM EST MON FEB 19 2018  
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/
 
 
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL WEDGED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST  
GEORGIA AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED DENSE SEA FOG  
BANK OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS IS GETTING PUSHED ONSHORE AND  
BEING MIXED OUT AS SOON AS IT HITS THE WARMER LAND AREAS. THE  
BULK OF THIS FOG BANK WILL LIKELY GET COMPLETELY SCOURED OUT BY  
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, SOME OF THE MODEL DATA SEEMS  
BE TOO BULLISH SHOWING SEA FOG DRIFTING INLAND ALONG THE I-95  
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT  
WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONTINUED MOIST  
LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OFF  
THE ATLANTIC CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THIS PATTERN BUT  
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT PLACEMENT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST  
OF THE AREA. NEAR RECORD TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS  
WELL INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER AT THE  
BEACHES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOIST ONSHORE  
FLOW. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE  
CLOSER TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK  
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVES NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE  
UPPER HIGH.  
   
SHORT TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
 
 
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A WARMING TREND WITH  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG AS UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL  
BE NORTH OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING PREVAILING ESE SURFACE  
FLOW WHICH COULD BRING SOME PASSING LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS OVER THE  
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND JUST INLAND ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK  
COASTAL TROUGHS AS THEY PIVOT WESTWARD. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME EARLY  
EVENING SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 441 TUE NIGHT DUE TO SEA  
BREEZE INTERACTIONS, BUT OVERALL DESPITE A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD  
EACH DAY, THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE TOO STABLE AND TOO DRY  
TO SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER  
FORMATION. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN  
SENSIBLE WEATHER HAZARD OVER THE SHORT TERM HAZARD, WITH DENSE FOG  
ADVISORIES LIKELY.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN  
THE MID/UPPER 70S COAST TO LOW 80S INLAND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY  
RANGE IN THE 60S.  
   
LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON
 
 
CONTINUED WARMTH WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS  
PERIOD. FRIDAY AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK  
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE  
LOCAL AREA AND INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL HEATING TO  
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SAT AS MEAN  
LAYER RIDGING BEGINS TO WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ONLY A LOW  
CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES. SUN  
INTO MON INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRIFTS  
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER  
LEVEL WSW FLOW OUT OF THE GOMEX RAISING MOISTURE CONTENT AND  
BRINGING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY  
SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT. MODELS SHEAR OUT DYNAMICS AND DECREASE  
MOISTURE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA LATE  
SUN NIGHT INTO MON, WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MON ACROSS  
NE FL AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AS MORE OF A BACKDOOR  
COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MODELS ARE STARTING  
TO BACK OFF QUITE A BIT WITH THE SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS  
EVENING. HAVE LEFT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST TONIGHT IN PLACE  
FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS DECREASING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
DENSE SEA FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT BY THIS EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL  
FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN SEA  
FOG BECOMING DENSE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL  
REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 60 82 64 83 / 10 20 10 10  
SSI 60 72 61 75 / 10 20 20 10  
JAX 61 80 64 81 / 10 20 10 10  
SGJ 64 78 64 78 / 10 20 10 10  
GNV 62 84 64 84 / 10 20 10 0  
OCF 63 85 65 85 / 10 20 10 0  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL  
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-  
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL  
OUT 20 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHULER/ENYEDI/  
 
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