145
FXUS62 KJAX 291733
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1233 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAY'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. FOG DISSIPATED
A COUPLE OF HRS AGO, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS
MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WARM
UP TO THE LOW 70S UNDER DECENT SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTEND. PORTIONS OF SE GA PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S. - TAE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF, AND A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY.
FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING, AND ADVECT EAST OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I75 CORRIDOR. THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT, RIDGING OVERHEAD, THE FOG AND STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS, ANOTHER
MAINLY SUNNY DAY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
WEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER INTERIOR
SE GA, TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S WILL BE COMMON. WITH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH, THE FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE THURSDAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
COOLER COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST, TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING, BRINGING
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT, PROBABLY REMAINING IN THE
50S OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE,
PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF MAYPORT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS EASILY OF 25-35 MPH FOR INLAND AREAS WHERE DEEPER MIXING IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS MAKE A RETURN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA, AND MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NOT INCLUDING ANY THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THUNDER PROBABILITIES GENERALLY
UNDER 10 PERCENT CHANCES. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT, AND FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE UNDER 0.30 INCHES, WITH THE BEST RAIN
AMOUNT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST FL.
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ELEVATED
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT
WEAKENS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO SOME LOWER
80S, NOT FAR FROM THE RECORD HIGH OF 82 DEGREES IN 2002 AT ALMA
GA. LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO ABOUT 50-53 OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THOSE AREAS, BUT MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR NORTHEAST FL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY A LIMITED/LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AROUND FLAGLER
AND MARION COUNTIES IN THE MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. BUT OTHERWISE
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT ANTICIPATE LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FROM THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN A SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BEING POSSIBLE. ON MONDAY, A SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SIT AT NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST WED JAN 29 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING UNDER A MIX
OF UPPER CLOUDS WITH SOME FAIR-WX CU. LIGHT WEST WINDS TURN
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS TMRW
OUT OF THE NE TO EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS FOG,
FOR WHICH THE BEST POTENTIAL IS AT GNV, FOLLOWED BY VQQ. HAVE
INITIAL ONSET OF MVFR VSBYS FROM 9-10Z, THEN A TEMPO FOR 1-1/2SM
IN THE 11-13Z TIME FRAME. OTHER TERMINALS STAND A LESSER CHANCE,
THOUGH JAX/SGJ MAY SEE BRIEF DROPS TO ~4-5SM NEAR SUNRISE. ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT OR AFTER 14Z. - TAE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EST WED JAN 29 2025
MORNING UPDATE: OFFSHORE BUOYS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH AND ST
AUGUSTINE WERE REPORTING 1-FT SEAS WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF
AROUND 10 SECONDS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL CENTER TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
NE FL: LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
- TAE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 43 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 66 47 62 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 73 47 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 70 49 69 56 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 72 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 73 48 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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