146  
FXUS62 KJAX 301411  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
1011 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AS THINGS LOOK  
ON TRACK. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA  
THIS MORNING, WITH NORTHEAST FLORIDA A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPING  
DUE TO SOME LINGERING HIGHER CLOUDS. BREEZY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE AREA, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON, THOUGH ANY THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, QUICK  
MOVING AND DEFINITELY NOT DROUGHT BUSTERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
INLAND WILL BE NEAR 90, AND COOLER AT THE BEACHES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. BASES ARE STARTING OUT  
LARGELY IN THE MVFR RANGE, AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND 030-050  
FEET AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE  
BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS. A FEW  
OF THE TALLER CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY SPIT OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS,  
BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOLID SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW  
20 KNOTS AND WAVES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS APPROACHING 6 FEET. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL KICK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN  
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY  
VEERING TO THE NORTH AND DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES IN.  
 
WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A STRONGER  
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW  
MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
DISPERSIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AGAIN TODAY DUE TO  
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.  
SMOKE FROM THE WEST MIMS WILDFIRE WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE 40 PERCENT WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS  
WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING STRIKES ON MONDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 88 70 85 58 / 20 30 50 30  
SSI 80 74 82 67 / 10 10 30 40  
JAX 86 71 89 66 / 10 10 30 40  
SGJ 83 72 86 68 / 10 10 20 50  
GNV 90 70 89 66 / 10 10 20 40  
OCF 91 70 89 68 / 10 10 20 40  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
ELSENHEIMER/CORDERO/CORLESS  
 
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