132  
FXUS62 KJAX 221417  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
1017 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2017  
 
...SCATTERED STORMS AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS  
AFTERNOON...  
   
UPDATE
 
 
TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WRN ATLC EXTENDS  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALOFT AND THIS WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS  
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT BUT MORNING SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DERIVED  
PRODUCTS STILL SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS  
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES THAT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TO  
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE SEA BREEZE  
FRONTS AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH  
WILL PUSH STRONGER STORMS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AT  
10-15 MPH WHILE STILL WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS AT -4 TO -6C AROUND  
500MB WILL NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS STILL  
EXPECT STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND  
STORM MOVEMENT AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE JUST INLAND FROM THE I-95  
CORRIDOR WESTWARD TO THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS SEA BREEZES MEET.  
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER  
90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND THIS COMBINED WITH  
LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CREATE PEAK HEAT  
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE  
STORMS FADING AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT  
AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MUGGY  
CONDITIONS STILL CONTINUING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. ON FRIDAY AS DRIER  
AIRMASS ALOFT OVER SOUTH FL PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO NORTH FL EXPECT  
ONLY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL AND WIDELY  
SCATTERED ACROSS INLAND SE GA WITH HOT TEMPS INTO THE 90S AND HIGH  
HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE POPPED UP AT KGNV AND FOR NOW EXPECT REST OF  
TAF SITES TO MAINTAIN SCT DECKS IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE THIS  
MORNING BUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE SCATTERED  
CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ARGUES TO KEEP VCTS OR VCSH AT  
ALL TAF SITES AS THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. ACTIVITY  
STILL EXPECTED TO FADE DURING THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.  
A SLIGHT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO 15-20 KNOTS  
AND SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED BRIEFLY AT TIMES.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN THE SIDESHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND  
AFTERNOON SE SEA BREEZES. BREAKERS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 93 73 94 72 / 40 30 30 20  
SSI 86 77 87 76 / 30 10 10 10  
JAX 91 74 93 73 / 40 20 10 10  
SGJ 89 74 89 75 / 30 20 10 10  
GNV 93 72 93 72 / 60 50 10 10  
OCF 92 72 93 73 / 50 40 10 10  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
HESS/NELSON  
 
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