124
FXUS62 KJAX 090853
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
OFF THE SE US COAST. UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SSE ACROSS THE N MS
VALLEY. ONE SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY ACROSS E AR WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OVER KNEW. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL MS
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GOMEX. THIS FRONT IS PRECEDED
BY A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS OVER THE GOMEX AND RIGHT ALONG THE GULF
COAST S OF KNEW. COASTAL TROF STILL HOLDING FIRM OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS E OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG IT. ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS IN A FEW SPOTS. HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
RATHER TRICKY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TODAY WITH 2 DISTINCT
AREAS OF LIFT TRAVERSING THE AREA. THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL HANDLING OF THESE 2 FEATURES ALONG WITH THE COASTAL TROF AND
WEDGE OVER THE SE US. AGREE WITH DAY SHIFT THAT GREATEST THREAT FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE N AND S PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD BY AFTERNOON DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT LOCATION OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT MANY AREAS
WILL GET PRECIP AND QPF WILL BE THE GREATEST DIFFICULTY. LINGERING
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE WILL REDUCE POPS AND WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY STABLE. HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHO SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX OVER
THE S PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ON THE HEALS
OF THE FIRST. THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE WELL S OF OUR
AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE N 2/3 OF
THE AREA...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP MAY STAY S OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA UNTIL TEMPERATURES START TO WARM. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THRU THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A BIT LATE
SUN AND MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...FRONT APPEARS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL PRECIP ALONG IT AND SFC LOW WELL TO THE N...
ALTHO A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GOMEX AS THE
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDS AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVER THE REGION WITH JUST A BIT OF
PATCHY MVFR FOG AT KVQQ. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 1KFT BLOW OVER NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
HAVE GENERALIZED LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN ENDING THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS WITH LOW CLOUDS
ALONG THE FRONT.
MARINE
MAIN CHANGE IS TO UPGRADE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS TO GALE WATCH
NEARSHORE AND GALE WARNING OFFSHORE FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40
KNOTS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED INTO WED
NIGHT. CONDS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY AS INTENSE LOW PULLS FAR
ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SLAM DUNK FOR RED FLAG CONDS ON WEDNESDAY
HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO A WARNING AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH LOW RH'S IN THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 60 37 52 28 / 60 20 0 0
SSI 61 39 51 31 / 60 30 0 0
JAX 62 38 52 28 / 60 30 0 0
SGJ 63 40 52 32 / 60 30 0 0
GNV 63 41 53 28 / 60 20 0 0
OCF 63 42 55 28 / 60 20 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR APPLING-
ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
CARROLL/HESS
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