831  
FXUS62 KJAX 240620  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
220 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017  
   
NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL  
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CONVECTION FROM  
THE GULF INTO INTERIOR NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIALLY THIS  
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT COMES ASHORE, AS THE LAND IS MORE  
STABLE DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND, SO WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A PUSH BY THE  
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE REGION FASTER THAN USUAL, WITH MOST CONVECTION ENDING  
EARLIER THAN USUAL.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER INLAND NE FL TODAY  
DUE TO CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL  
ELSEWHERE.  
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
 
OVERVIEW: THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE  
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS  
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, A SHORTWAVE STRETCHING  
FROM LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL GEORGIA, AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING  
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO BE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. A LITTLE  
MORE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON  
TUESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WITH SOME DRIER  
LOW LEVEL AIR ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE  
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL  
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL  
SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND AN  
ELONGATED PV ANOMALY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA  
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF  
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY FROM THE GULF AS THE RIDGE NUDGES  
NORTHWARD. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE GULF  
COAST, AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, PUSHING  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. ENHANCED RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING  
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. FOR  
NORTHEAST FLORIDA, I-10 NORTHWARD IS FORECAST TO SEE NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SHOWERS/STORMS  
FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
 
FAIRLY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER  
HEIGHTS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS THE RIDGE  
WEAKENS. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WHICH  
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH LOWS IN  
THE 70S.  
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT  
NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE REGION, AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
AN UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. DEEP WEST TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SATURDAY, WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN  
EARLY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE REST OF  
THE REGION BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN  
THE LOWER 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE NORTHEASTERN  
CONUS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH  
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE TROUGH MAY THEN PUSH INTO  
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OR EVEN INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING  
AND LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS  
FORECAST TO CUTOFF ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST ON MONDAY TO THE  
WEST OF THE REGION, WITH A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS  
THE REGION. ENHANCED RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE  
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.  
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH LOWS  
IN THE 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF THIS  
MORNING, AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA WATERS THIS WEEK. A TROUGH  
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION  
TOWARD MID WEEK AND DISSIPATE. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 91 75 90 74 / 20 20 60 30  
SSI 92 77 89 78 / 20 20 60 40  
JAX 91 75 92 76 / 30 20 60 30  
SGJ 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 30 10  
GNV 89 74 92 74 / 40 20 20 10  
OCF 88 74 92 74 / 50 20 20 10  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
STRUBLE/KENNEDY/  
 
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