960  
FXUS62 KJAX 141427  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
1027 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE DECREASED  
POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE GULF  
COAST DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INLAND, BUT WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING  
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES SOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE SHOULD  
MOVE INLAND AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPERATURES CHECKING IN  
AROUND -8C THIS MORNING, AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE  
DAY PROGRESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE  
PRIMARY HAZARDS, THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE  
ALSO POSSIBLE AS SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS OCCUR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SOME LINGERING IFR CEILINGS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS  
MORNING, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT/BKN MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS  
THE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS THIS MORNING AND BASES WILL LIFT TO  
AROUND 030-050 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 8-12 KNOTS, WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE  
DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING WINDS SOUTHEAST AT COASTAL TERMINALS.  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON  
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.  
PATCHY MVFR/CEILINGS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH, AND ATLANTIC HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA  
WATERS. PREVAILING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY APPROACH CAUTION  
LEVELS AT TIMES AND WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER  
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. ATLANTIC  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND,  
RESULTING IN PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 92 72 91 73 / 40 30 50 30  
SSI 89 77 89 76 / 40 30 30 40  
JAX 92 74 92 74 / 60 40 50 40  
SGJ 89 75 89 74 / 50 40 50 40  
GNV 89 73 91 74 / 60 30 40 20  
OCF 90 73 92 73 / 50 20 50 30  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
ELSENHEIMER/CORLESS/HESS  
 
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