331  
FXUS63 KGLD 252339  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
539 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER 06-9Z TONIGHT THROUGH 13-15Z  
MONDAY MORNING. AS SURFACE FRONT LIFTS TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
INCREASES, SO WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO A LESS FAVORABLE DIRECTION  
GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING STRATUS/FOG. FOG SIGNAL ISN'T CONSISTENT ON  
LOCATION, BUT MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING POCKETS OF REDUCED  
VISIBILITIES OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA (PARTICULARLY NW KS  
BASED ON RAP/HRRR). REASON FOR INCONSISTENCY COULD BE DUE TO  
DIFFERENCES IN MIXING FROM POTENTIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OR  
LINGERING SKY COVER (FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY ON BACK EDGE OF  
STRATUS DECK NEAR CO STATE LINE WHERE THERE IS BETTER RADIATIONAL  
CONDITIONS).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES PREVAIL AS THE AREA LIES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON IS PLAYING A KEY  
ROLE IN DAYTIME TEMPS. ANY BREAKS SHOWING UP ARE ALLOWING FOR A  
SEVERAL DEGREE BUMP UP. BUT WITH THE ENTIRE CWA NOT SEEING THIS  
BENEFIT...A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE UPPER 50S TO  
NEAR 70F. ESE WINDS ARE PREVALENT OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS STILL  
NEAR 20 MPH IN SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL WORKING INTO THE  
AREA FROM THE NW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  
 
GOING INTO TONIGHT...A SHIFT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH AND EAST OF  
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...WILL ALLOW  
FOR THE FRONT OVER NW KANSAS TO MEANDER THRU THE REGION AND  
EVENTUALLY END UP NEAR EASTERN ZONES BY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW  
ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTION OF TRW/RW...ESPECIALLY  
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH PW VALUES STILL NEAR AND INCH  
FOR MANY LOCALES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 50S.  
 
FOR MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DECENT WAA RETURNS TO THE REGION.  
NW DOWNSLOPE H5/H7 WINDS WILL BRING THE CWA LOWER TO MID 80S FOR  
DAYTIME HIGHS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP THRU THE  
DAY...AND WITH THE REMNANTS OF TODAY'S FRONT STILL MEANDERING OVER  
THE REGION...INSTABILITY COULD BRING ABOUT POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR THE  
AFTERNOON HRS...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES. SPC DOES HAVE THE  
REGION UNDER A MARGINAL RISK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A H7 SHORTWAVE  
THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL  
CLIMB TO NEAR 2500 J/KG AS A RELATIVELY STRONG THETA-E BOUNDARY SETS  
UP IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AS 850 MB WINDS WILL  
BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 45 KNOTS (GFS) WITH MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO  
NEAR 12 G/KG BY 00Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST DIRECTLY  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH VALUES IN THE 35 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. THERE  
WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO  
FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE 0-1 KM SHEAR  
APPROACHING 17 TO 25 KNOTS AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KNOTS (GFS),  
THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY EAST  
OF THE KS/CO BORDER. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH  
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  
 
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN  
ON THURSDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY.  
FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A  
STATIONARY THETA-E BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES  
OF THE CWA WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY.  
 
A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND  
EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE IN THE  
FORECAST ON FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL  
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD INTO  
SATURDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SET UP ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ELEVATED STRONG CONVECTION AS LONG AS FORCING  
FROM THE SHORTWAVE IS SUFFICIENT. WILL NEED TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY  
IN THE GUIDANCE BEFORE INCREASING POPS BEYOND SLGT CHC TO CHC.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
POCKET OF IFR STRATUS IS LINGERING NEAR KGLD, AND THIS SHOULD LIFT  
TO MVFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO  
PREVAIL AT KMCK, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED STRATUS/FOG IS  
LESS CERTAIN FURTHER NORTH. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AT LEAST MVFR  
STRATUS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT KGLD, AND THERE IS  
INCREASING SUPPORT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KGLD STARTING IN THE  
06-09Z WINDOW AND CONTINUING THROUGH 13-15Z. PREVAILING VISIBILITIES  
ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENT SIGNAL, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS  
HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER VIS IN MENTIONED PERIOD TO 4SM. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN BELOW 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT,  
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE DECREASING AND MENTION HAS BEEN LEFT OUT. WILL  
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT COVERAGE IS  
STILL UNCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DR  
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...TL  
AVIATION...DR  
 
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