668  
FXUS63 KGLD 282350  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
550 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THEIR SEVERITY CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN  
ISSUES. CURRENTLY NOT MUCH GOING ON. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME LEFTOVER  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT ALOFT AT THIS TIME, THEY  
HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE  
IN THE APPROPRIATE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
 
WITH A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE  
NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND  
NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN THE HIGH  
RESOLUTION/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND  
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCES. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CUMULUS IN CLOSE  
PROXIMITY UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA, AM LIKING THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME  
WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE NAM SAYS. AM THINKING THAT MID  
TO LATE EVENING IS THE MAIN ARRIVAL TIME. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO  
BRING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION  
WHERE PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE.  
 
WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR,  
THERE LOOKS TO BE GOOD AND BETTER CHANCE, THAN LAST NIGHT, THAT  
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE  
MAIN THREATS.  
 
GOING BY THE SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME, THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW TONIGHTS STORMS  
EVOLVES, FOG COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TO A MOIST AND UPSLOPE AIR  
MASS. WILL LET THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT  
THIS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND TOMORROW. AM  
THINKING THAT THE AIR MASS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO RECOVER  
BUT STILL DO HAVE NORTHWEST ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AROUND.  
AT THIS TIME JUST HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST IN THE  
AFTERNOON, BUT AM NOT TOO CERTAIN ABOUT IT.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER AND POTENTIALLY COULD BE COOLER IF  
CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE ARE MORE THAN EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD  
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST, RESULTING  
IN THE COMMON "NORTHWEST FLOW" SETUP. BY SUNDAY, THIS PATTERN BEGINS  
TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE INTENSIFIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT SOME  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WEAKENS ONCE AGAIN AS  
DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH BREAK  
IT DOWN. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING CLOSE ENOUGH TO  
INITIATE STORMS ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT TUESDAY.  
 
BEGINNING WITH TOMORROW NIGHT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE  
AGAIN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. FLOW SHOULD BE  
MORE FROM THE WEST SO ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG  
THE ROCKIES SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO MAKE IT INTO THE TRI-STATE  
REGION. ALSO, DECIDED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR STORMS FURTHER EAST AS  
THERE MAY BE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY  
83. THESE STORMS WOULD PRIMARILY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. AN UNSTABLE AND SHEARED  
ATMOSPHERE, CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG, 850-500  
MB LAPSE RATES AT 8+ C/KM, AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS,  
INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.  
THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED BUT AM UNSURE OF THE FLASH FLOODING  
POTENTIAL DUE TO POTENTIAL COLD POOL FORMATION AND THUS FASTER STORM  
MOVEMENT.  
 
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, AM  
ANTICIPATING REDUCED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WHICH COULD HINDER THE  
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE EAST SHOULD  
LEAD TO AN INCREASING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT. FINALLY,  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH. ALL OF THIS  
MEANS THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE  
FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE  
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT MAY SHIFT FROM  
SEVERE WEATHER TO FLOODING THOUGH AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND  
A RICH, MOIST AIRMASS MAY PROVIDE A SITUATION CONDUCIVE TO FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A RETURN TO A MORE  
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, FORECAST GUIDANCE IS  
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT, PARTICULARLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE  
NEXT DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR THESE  
TAFS WILL BE TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING FOR THE  
SITES. AM EXPECTING KMCK TO BE IMPACTED FIRST BY THE STORMS  
FOLLOWED SHORTLY AFTER BY KGLD. DID NOT PLACE A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR  
KGLD DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE THIS FAR WEST. BETTER  
CHANCES FOR STORM ACTIVITY ARE TO THE EAST. LARGE TO VERY LARGE  
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED WITH THE  
STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE STORM COMPLEX MOVES  
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES ITS INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. KGLD  
MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z BEHIND THE  
STORM COMPLEX.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BULLER  
LONG TERM...RRH  
AVIATION...JTL  
 
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