831  
FXUS63 KGLD 291955  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
155 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016  
 
CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW  
MEXICO, WITH LONG MOIST PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE SCALE FORCING  
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WHICH HAS COMBINED WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIR  
MASS AND (LIMITED) INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON-TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH  
FAVORABLE AXIS (AND STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL BY ENSEMBLES) IN OUR  
EASTERN CWA. BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN THE WEST (WHERE CLOUD COVER  
HAS REMAIN THINNER), AND THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL  
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE WEST. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN EAST,  
HOWEVER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN  
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LESS FORCING IN THE WEST  
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF CLEARING/DRY CONDITIONS,  
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OVERALL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY REMOVE  
CHANCES DURING ANY PERIOD. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO LIMITED SEVERE THREAT  
MAY BE CONFINED TO REGION OF 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE IN THE WEST. DUE TO  
THE MOIST NATURE OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE, WARM RAIN PROCESSES  
(SKINNY CAPE/WARMER THERMAL PROFILES), AND SLOWER INDIVIDUAL CELL  
MOTIONS, ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN (FLASH FLOOD  
THREAT). WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED INSTABILITY MAY BE MUCH  
WEAKER AND THIS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF  
STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL.  
 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES: AFTER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW SHIFT EAST,  
AIR MASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER  
AND PRECIP REMAINS SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN WE MAY BARELY WARM OUT OF  
THE LOW 70S OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. OTHER AREAS MAY REACH THE LOW 80S  
ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER THINS OUT ENOUGH. I TRENDED THE TEMPERATURE  
FROM CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS CONFIDENCE IN  
CLEARING IS LOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONG TERM WITH CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES  
START OFF BELOW NORMAL BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING TO NEAR/ABOVE  
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY  
PROGRESSES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME  
WITH A TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH  
PLAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY. WITH MOISTURE PRESENT, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE PLAINS.  
CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND THE UPPER RIDGE SITS  
OVERHEAD. AS SUCH, KEPT NIL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING  
AT THE SEVERE THREAT, SHEAR SEEMS TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED  
SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND DAYTIME  
HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AREA, SO CANNOT RULE  
OUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE  
AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST AND WEAKENS AND AN  
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES ONTO THE WEST COAST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM  
PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED, SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED  
THROUGH THE FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST. THESE  
DISTURBANCES GENERATE PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE EXTENDED APPEARING  
TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STARTING OUT IN  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S  
TO LOW 90S BY SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE  
MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE  
UPPER 60S DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2016  
 
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH GENERALLY EAST OF KGLD TOWARDS KMCK.  
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH ADDITIONAL  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING  
BEFORE COVERAGE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE  
WILL TEND TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BESIDES THE ONGOING  
ACTIVITY CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHERE AND HOW THE ACTIVITY WILL  
UNFOLD DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES, WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY/HIGHER  
CONFIDENCE AT KMCK. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,  
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT  
ALLOWING FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY THE  
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS IS AT KGLD, HOWEVER BOTH  
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AROUND 12Z.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DR  
LONG TERM...JBH  
AVIATION...DR  
 
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