662  
FXUS63 KGLD 182010  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
210 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
THE TRI STATE REGION IS LOOKING AT MAINLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S W/  
A FEW ISOLATED LOCALES AROUND 90F. MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUD  
COVER OVER THE AREA RESIDES OVER EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO THE BACK  
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM THAT CAME THRU THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS A  
MAINLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THRU THE REGION W/ A WEAK  
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE CO/KS BORDER.  
 
AREAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH MOST SUNSHINE...ARE  
SEEING DECENT SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000-4000 J/KG AND DEWPTS IN THE  
MID 60S THRU THE LOW 70S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO RESIDES JUST  
SOUTH OF THE KS BORDER IN CENTRAL OK. SO WITH INSTABILITY  
PRESENT...SOME TRW ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING CURRENTLY  
SHOWING ON RADAR. HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW CLOSE TO PREVIOUS  
FORECAST KEEPING POPS IN FOR TRW LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY  
SSE LOCALES...TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL  
HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S W/ A FEW SPOTS S AND  
E NEAR 70F.  
 
GOING INTO THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING WORKS EAST OFF THE ROCKIES WITH WNW DOWNSLOPE...AND  
SSE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS GOING TO PROVIDE A HOT DAY ACROSS  
THE AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING +29C TO +34C DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. WILL BE LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F  
FOR ALL LOCALES. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. THE EXIT OF THE TROUGH ENABLES RIDGING OVER THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PROGRESS EAST, EXPAND, AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
EVENINGS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF  
THE ANTICYCLONE.  
 
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF  
OF THE COUNTRY AND DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS AIDS IN  
THE REGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ACTIVE  
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE  
FRONT AND ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO  
PIN DOWN DETAILS AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY/NIGHT DURING THIS LATTER HALF OF THE  
PERIOD. MODERATE SHEAR AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE IN  
PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUGGESTING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD  
DEVELOP.  
 
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY 80S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...  
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER  
GIVING WAY TO SKC-FEW250 AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. WINDS MAINLY SE  
AROUND 10KTS THRU 05Z-06Z THURSDAY...THEN SW AROUND 5KTS. BY 13Z-  
14Z THURSDAY...NW AROUND 10KTS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...JBH  
AVIATION...JN  
 
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