661  
FXUS63 KGLD 162338  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
438 PM MST SAT DEC 16 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LIGHT  
NON-ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OVER A PORTION OF THE FORECAST  
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LIFTS OUT ACROSS  
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLDER  
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS  
WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS THE COLD AIR MOVES  
IN AND THE DEWPOINTS RAISE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER UP THROUGH NEARLY 700MB NEARS SATURATION. EXPECT THE AREA  
OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE  
REGION TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH  
THE POSSIBILITY OF AREAS OF FREEZING FOG, LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE,  
AND SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ACROSS MAINLY THE  
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOCUSED  
PRIMARILY ON THE 09-14Z TIME PERIOD. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO END WITH  
LOWER CEILINGS DIMINISHING BY 18Z AND LOWER CLOUD COVER  
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY  
17Z, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT DID FREEZE OVERNIGHT  
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
 
SOME ELEVATED EXPOSED SURFACES MAY BECOME SLIPPERY, BUT DO NOT  
EXPECT ANY APPRECIABLE WIDESPREAD ICE OR SNOW, SO AM NOT  
CONSIDERING THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS, BUT WILL MENTION IN  
ANCILLARY PRODUCTS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE A FEW LOW CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY  
NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY  
NIGHT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS  
TO LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER  
50S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  
 
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PER 300MB HUMIDITY  
OTHERWISE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS AND DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED  
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  
 
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE  
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO  
NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS TROUGH DEEPENS WITH A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER  
SOUTHWEST UTAH BY 12Z THURSDAY PER GFS/GEM. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM  
INTO THE 7C TO 10C RANGE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND  
60. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DURING  
THE DAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND  
PERHAPS SOME FOG FROM MCCOOK TO NEAR GOVE AND POINTS EAST THROUGH  
MIDNIGHT AS SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE  
SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE AM EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY  
NORTH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE IN  
THE 850-500MB LAYER AND MODEL QPF SUPPORTS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF  
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE  
SUNRISE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S FAR EAST.  
 
THURSDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAY BECOMING 10 MPH OR LESS DURING THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF  
-9C TO -14C EXPECTED WITH MEX GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID  
20S. THESE "HIGH" TEMPERATURES MAY COME EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE  
SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM  
THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE  
ZERO RANGE. REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THEY APPEAR TO  
INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE DAY AS  
MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES IN AHEAD OF A SEPARATE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION  
TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW  
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW.  
 
FRIDAY...DAYTIME PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW  
30S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF  
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF 850-500MB MOISTURE MOVES IN  
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 15 DEGREE RANGE ABOVE ZERO.  
 
SATURDAY...AREA OF MOISTURE NOTED ABOVE SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH DURING  
THE DAY SUPPORTING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW  
ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OR SO OF THE AREA UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
A COLD FRONT IS ACTIVELY MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO  
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.  
WINDS WILL TEND TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT  
REMAINING IN THE 10-14KT RANGE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF  
CONSISTENCY AND THE WINDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW  
STRATUS FAVORED. I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP FREEZING  
DRIZZLE IN THE TAFS AS COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT IT  
MAY NEVER IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY  
IMPROVE, WITH VFR RETURNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWEST CONDITIONS  
WILL BE AT KGLD SUNDAY MORNING (08-13Z) WHERE LIFR CIGS ARE  
EXPECTED. IFR WILL BE FAVORED AT KMCK DURING THE SAME PERIOD OF  
TIME.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...DR  
 
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