394  
FXUS63 KGLD 190945  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
245 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY  
SPINNING OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COLORADO BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN INTO WESTERN  
KANSAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 700-  
500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TRI-STATE AREA  
AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON, EXITING THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING  
WITH A LARGE DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER BATCH OF  
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH  
MODELS HAVING SOME TIMING ISSUES ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. IT MAY OR MAY  
NOT PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FOR NOW HAVE THINGS DRY.  
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS PEAK LATE THIS MORNING  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE  
THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS START TO VEER  
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  
 
OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEMS INCLUDE FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL  
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  
LATEST 00Z AND 06Z MODELS SHOW SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND  
FOG PER VISIBILITY FORECASTS REACHING A LINE FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO  
COLBY AND LEOTI FROM SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.  
 
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY, MID LEVEL DRY SLOT COVERS  
MUCH OF THE AREA LIMITING BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE EARLY  
THIS EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S (FLAGLER AREA) TO THE LOW/MID 70S  
(HIGHEST NEAR MCCOOK). LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT BURLINGTON, HILL CITY AND YUMA.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS QUICKLY DECREASE IN THE MORNING WITH A  
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKY DURING THE NIGHT. MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE  
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY. AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOUT 10F ACROSS THE AREA  
COMPARED TO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S LOOKS  
GOOD AND WOULD SET NUMEROUS RECORDS FOR THE DATE (SEE CLIMATE  
SECTION BELOW). LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 154 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
WINTER STORM TO DEVELOP IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.  
 
WEDNESDAY: SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST, AND MAIN AXIS OF WAA  
SHOULD FOLLOW, HOWEVER TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN VERY WARM. CONSIDERING  
BIASES AND CURRENT TRENDS WE MAY SEE SIMILAR HIGHS IN OUR SOUTH AND  
EAST AS ON TUESDAY WITH NEAR DAILY RECORDS ONCE AGAIN. ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOWER RH, HOWEVER SURFACE  
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS SHOULD NOT  
BE AN ISSUE.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (DISCOUNTING GEM) HAS TRENDED  
FURTHER SOUTH PLACING OUR CWA IN A BETTER POSITION FOR PRECIPITATION  
AND A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON  
MID LEVEL EVOLUTION EVEN WITH FAVORABLE MODELS, WHICH IMPACTS HOW  
THIS EVENT EVOLVES AND POSSIBLE AMOUNTS. STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD  
MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY  
EVENING, POSSIBLY SPED UP BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER MAIN AXIS  
OF PRECIP AS IT SPREADS EAST. BASED ON WET BULB PROFILES ON  
GFS/ECMWF WE MAY HAVE A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW THAN CURRENTLY  
INDICATED (BASICALLY AS PRECIP BEGINS RATHER THAN A DELAY). THIS  
ADDS ANOTHER LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY TO POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS AND  
TIMING OF IMPACTS.  
 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL TEND TO BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT  
THURSDAY EVENING, HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF COULD SUPPORT A LONGER  
DURATION OF STRONG WINDS CORRELATED WITH SNOW RAISING THE POTENTIAL  
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.  
 
REGARDING AMOUNTS: EVEN WITH A DELAYED START TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS  
TO THE LATE EVENING PERIOD, LOWER END OF BLENDS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA (3") AND A POSSIBLE  
PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW. THE STRONGEST SOLUTION (CURRENTLY ECMWF)  
SHOWS A DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING AND TRACKING ACROSS OUR NORTH, AND  
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS (6+). WHILE GFS IS  
WEAKER ON FORCING AND PATTERN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE ON DURATION OF  
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS, ADJUSTING FOR A FASTER TRANSITION COULD RESULT  
IN 3-6" AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTH. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, AND  
LOWER RATES MAY STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THIS INITIALLY NEGATIVELY  
IMPACTING AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THIS WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT IF RATES  
ARE AS HIGH AS WHATS POSSIBLE, AND BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT COLDER  
AIR WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON WARMER SURFACES.  
 
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WE WILL SEE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS  
(PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70), HOWEVER I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW  
THIS WILL UNFOLD AND WHAT THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE IMPACTS WILL BE.  
 
SATURDAY: PATTERN SHOULD BE DRY WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.  
THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND WAA, HOWEVER  
COLDER AIR MASS MAY BE SLOWER TO TRANSITION EAST AND LINGERING SNOW  
PACK COULD PLAY A ROLE IN COMPLICATING HIGH TEMPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
GUSTING TOWARD 30KTS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST AROUND 08Z. FROM 09Z-12Z WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-  
NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID TO  
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.  
 
KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR  
10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL INCREASE TOWARD 13KTS AROUND 17Z THEN  
GUST NEAR 30KTS FROM 21Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER 08Z WINDS  
BEGIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10KTS SLOWLY VEERING TO THE WEST-  
SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY  
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE 05Z-10Z  
TIMEFRAME MONDAY MORNING FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS AS NAM SHOWING  
SATURATED LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG AND  
WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR TRENTON NEBRASKA TO COLBY AND GOVE  
KANSAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 20  
PERCENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2017  
 
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT THE  
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:  
 
HILL CITY..........73 IN 2004 AND PREVIOUS YEARS  
BURLINGTON.........71 IN 1986  
YUMA...............72 IN 1986  
 
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY  
FEBRUARY 21ST AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:  
 
GOODLAND...........73 IN 1995 AND PREVIOUS YEARS  
HILL CITY..........77 IN 1977  
MCCOOK.............76 IN 1933  
BURLINGTON.........72 IN 2000  
COLBY..............74 IN 1972 AND PREVIOUS YEARS  
TRIBUNE............77 IN 1924  
YUMA...............72 IN 1982  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...DR  
AVIATION...99  
FIRE WEATHER...99  
CLIMATE...99  
 
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