478  
FXUS63 KGLD 291111  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
511 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
 
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
AREA OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE FOUR  
CORNERS RIDGE. THESE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE  
DAY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS GOOD AT AROUND 40KTS. SEVERE THREAT  
APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE DUE TO  
WEAK FORCING.  
 
UPPER RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES  
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE RIDGE IN THE  
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS...MAINLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A SEVERE  
THREAT IF ANYTHING CAN GET GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 
MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG BUT WITH  
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY REMOVE SLIGHT  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR WILL HOWEVER BE NOTICEABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE THREAT  
WILL BE LOWER FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS  
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA. HOTTER TEMPERATURES  
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
ON MONDAY, FLOW ALOFT IS SOMEWHAT ZONAL WITH AN AREA OF UPPER HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CONTINUES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH  
TUESDAY. THE LOW SHARPENS THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRIER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE RIDGE BEING  
THE DOMINATING FEATURE. HOWEVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE DOES APPEAR TO  
FILTER NORTH TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS, SO THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT.  
 
THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEARS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION,  
LEADING TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY.  
 
THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. COOLER HIGHS,  
MAINLY IN THE 80S, ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT  
NEARBY. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
 
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.  
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT  
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE  
TERMINAL SPECIFIC TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW  
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...024  
LONG TERM...JBH  
AVIATION...024  
 
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