236  
FXUS63 KGLD 190900  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
300 AM MDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOISTURE IN THE 850-  
500MB LAYER MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS  
MORNING WHILE AT THE SFC SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20  
MPH RANGE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS  
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST.  
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EAST  
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F TO 13F ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO  
YESTERDAY WHICH IS ALSO A FEW DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO PAST FEW  
MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MID 90S TO AROUND 101F AND IS CLOSE  
TO THE GFS 2M TEMPERATURES. AM SHOOTING FOR HIGHS VERY THESE VALUES.  
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR  
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.  
 
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY UNDER A  
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. 850MB TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES  
COOLER SUPPORTING LOW TO MID 90S. ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA  
LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES NOTED AND HIGHS OUT THERE COULD  
BE VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HOURS AS WE'RE  
PRETTY STABLE AND MOISTURE LACKING. WONT FIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
FOR NOW AND BASICALLY HAVE THEM EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO,  
MID 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BULK OF 850-500MB MOISTURE THAT TRIES TO MOVE  
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING REMAINS ACROSS A SLIVER OF OUR  
FAR EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID MORNING  
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AND ITS POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SUNNY  
SKY EXPECTED. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE DURING EVENING  
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 19 2017  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
KANSAS, WHILE THE WESTERN EXTENT GETS STALLED WITH A NORTH-SOUTH  
ORIENTATION ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES, ACROSS THE COLORADO  
PLAINS. MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WITH TEMPS AT OR BELOW AVERAGE.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MODEL DISAGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD LEADS TO LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. LATEST 0Z ECMWF AND CMC RUNS SHOW UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. GFS SHOWS A WETTER  
SOLUTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW COMING ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STILL STATIONARY HELPING TO PROVIDE LIFT  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CWA. 0Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A  
NEAR SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE GOODLAND  
AREA. WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH AS IT WAS AT THIS TIME LAST  
NIGHT, FORECAST STILL REFLECTS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH LOWER RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT FRI AUG 18 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME  
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR KGLD  
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH  
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO PUT A MENTION IN THE TAFS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...SME  
AVIATION...JTL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page
The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab NE Page Main Text Page