751  
FXUS63 KGLD 281111  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
511 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016  
 
FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND IF THERE WILL BE A CHANCE  
OF PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING AN  
AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. FLOW  
OVER THE COUNTRY IS BEING DOMINATED BY LARGE/SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW  
THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE CANADIAN AND  
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE MID LEVELS TO START OUT. THE  
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE SURFACE. THE CANADIAN AND GFS  
WERE STARTING OUT BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.  
 
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY AIR  
WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL AND ONLY DETAIL ON HOW  
WARM IT WILL GET WILL BE HOW FAST THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT  
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALL MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN  
BRINGING THE WIND SHIFT/COOLER AIR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST AND WARMER WEST WHICH  
MAKES SENSE AND WENT CLOSE TO.  
 
VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD.  
COOLED OFF THE LOWS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A RESULT  
OF THIS.  
 
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE  
FALLS INCREASE DURING THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF. SO  
SHOULD SEE NEAR BREEZY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF.  
STILL SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN DUE TO STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY  
AIR. THE COMBINATION OF A COOL START AND UPSLOPE/RETURN FLOW WINDS  
BRINGING RECYCLED COOL AIR, WILL MAKE FOR TEMPERATURES 5 TO 8  
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS. WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE  
A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO MORE WIND.  
 
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...NEW MODEL DATA IS CONSISTENT IN POSITION  
OF THE EASTERN CONUS LOW. NOT ONLY IS IT SLOW TO MOVE EAST IT  
ACTUALLY STARTS MOVING IT BACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. COMPARING  
CURRENT MODEL RUN TO THE PREVIOUS RUN, THE MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT  
IN A SLOWER/FURTHER WEST SOLUTION. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE THERE ARE  
STRONG RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THE SAME JET WIND SPEEDS  
ON EITHER SIDE OF IT, AND THERE IS NO KICKER TO MOVE IT. THE AFFECT  
OF THIS WILL BE TO KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS/STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT OVER  
THE REGION  
 
AS A RESULT, THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRIER WITH WHAT MID LEVEL LIFT  
THERE IS STILL OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC QPF AND  
GEFS ENSEMBLE QPF OUTPUT ALSO KEEP THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE OUT TO  
THE WEST OF OUR AREA. SO WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.  
 
MODELS ARE A LITTLE WARMER THIS DAY THAN THURSDAY. AM A LITTLE LEARY  
OF THIS SINCE SYSTEM TO THE EAST IS SLOW TO MOVE AND EXPECT LITTLE  
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS. SINCE MOST GUIDANCE  
IS CONSISTENT ON THIS WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH  
LOW PRESSURE BOTH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST AND OFF THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE WEST. THE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD  
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN A  
TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, APPROACHING THE CWA AS  
WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS  
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WENT  
WITH SLGT CHC IN THE NORTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE  
TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIME. THERE IS  
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO  
TIMING BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS IN ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER  
80S WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR  
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH A FEW READINGS CLOSER  
TO 50 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/SHIFTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BULLER  
LONG TERM...TL  
AVIATION...BULLER  
 
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