790  
FXUS63 KGLD 221128  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
528 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH A  
LIGHT WNW WIND OVER THE AREA. THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE GIVING THE  
REGION TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S THRU THE MID 30S...COLDEST  
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS LEFT  
UNTIL SUNRISE...DO EXPECT LOCALES TO DROP FURTHER AIDING IN CRITERIA  
FOR CURRENT FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT THRU 14Z THIS MORNING.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LEE-SIDE TROUGH OVER THE FRONT RANGE  
COMBINED WITH H5/H7 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE THE AREA A  
DRY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S.  
 
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND ON THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...H5/H7 RIDGE AMPLIFIES  
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY CREATING A NNW FLOW. TROUGH  
IS REPLACED BY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WHICH NOSES SOUTH AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED ON  
THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL BRING BACK A COOLER  
AIRMASS TO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE IS  
WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO DEEP TROUGHS, ONE TO OUR EAST AND AN  
APPROACHING TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN CANADA.  
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO  
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS AXIS TRAVERSES THE  
REGION DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL.  
 
THINGS COOL OFF VERY QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO  
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING  
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COMPLETELY CLEAR OF  
THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY  
AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE  
FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES CLEAR OF THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANGING TO A  
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE WESTERN  
HALF OF THE CWA. MOST AREAS THAT HAVE NOT MET HARD FREEZE CRITERIA  
WILL VERY LIKELY DO SO ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO  
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.  
 
STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE OUR  
COLDEST AIR MASS THUS FAR THIS SEASON. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER  
TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES  
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES W/ A MIX OF SKC-FEW  
250. WINDS WSW 5-15KTS THRU 08Z-09Z MONDAY THEN NW AROUND 10KTS.  
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE FROM 16Z-23Z. LLWS 12Z-16Z 360@30KTS AND  
AGAIN 08Z-12Z MONDAY 320@45-50KTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM  
AROUND NOON MDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT FOR SHERMAN AND WALLACE COUNTIES  
OF KANSAS AND KIT CARSON COUNTY COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS WINDS MAY  
GUST NEAR 25 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER THAN 15 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR  
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.  
 
CO...NONE.  
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR  
NEZ079>081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...TL  
AVIATION...JN  
FIRE WEATHER...JN  
 
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