102
FXUS63 KGLD 291120
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
AND 2 INCH HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- MOSTLY DRY AFTER SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH IS WINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
DURING THE DAYTIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. WITH IT PUSHING IN, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. THE BROAD LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE IS
ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS AROUND
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS. THE FIRST WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA AND HELP SETS UP A CONVERGENCE
ZONE. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND
DEWPOINTS REMAINING AROUND 60 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, ALL WE SHOULD NEED
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS A TRIGGER LIKE THE FRONT. STORMS COULD FIRE
UP FAIRLY EARLY AROUND 1-3PM MT / 2-4PM CT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, WHICH WOULD
FAVOR SMALL HAIL WITH MOST STORMS. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS WIND GUSTS
CLOSER TO 60 MPH. GIVEN HOW RECENT SETS UP HAVE GONE, IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT MOST STORMS WOULD PRODUCE SUB-SEVERE TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAZARDS.
THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS IS THE ONE WE HAVE SEEN FAIRLY OFTEN, THE
LINE FORMING IN EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND SWEEPING INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS BATCH FORMING GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY AND WITH SOME HELP FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOW FAR THIS LINE ADVANCES AND HOW
INTENSE IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS WRAPPED INTO THE
AREA AND HOW MUCH PRIOR STORMS CAN WORK THE ENVIRONMENT OVER.
THE LIKELY CASE IS FOR A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT ARE
SUB- SEVERE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE FORM AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA,
SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS. THEY THEN WOULD LAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENING AND POTENTIALLY UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE WORST CASE (25% CHANCE) IS THAT WE SEE HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER WITH NO PRIOR STORMS. IN THIS SCENARIO, AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF WIND COULD FORM AND SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70-75 MPH. ANOTHER SCENARIO (30%
CHANCE), IF STORMS FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE AIR MAY BECOME
MORE STABLE AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE STORMS GUSTING OUT AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LIKELY LOWER THE
THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE POP UP
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WAS BROUGHT IN AND
HOW MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT MAY NOT REACH ZERO WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOVER IN THE 60S AND 70S
WITH WINDS VARYING DUE TO STORM OUTFLOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SUNDAY THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CAUSE DEW
POINTS TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST. DESPITE
MUCH MORE INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM
FOR STORM FORMATION BEHIND THE FRONT DUE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NOT
BEING AS STRONG AS ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRESENT, BUT THAT TROUGH LOOKS TO TRIGGER STORMS MORE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30
KTS AND MUCH MORE PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY, STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE INTENSE. HAIL SIZE MAY BE UP TO TWO
INCHES FOR STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY, TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR. IF THIS HAPPENS, REPEATED
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.
FURTHER SOUTH, SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE "FRONT" SHOULD AID IN
STORM FORMATION LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS FORM THERE THEY WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER ONLY MOVING A SHORT WAY. AS
WITH TODAY, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND
70 MPH WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LOWER INSTABILITY.
SUNDAY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS MAY BRING A LINE OF STORMS WITH
IT. AS THE STORM ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF CO, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL THEN SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOLLOWING THE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 70 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS IF THEY ARE IN MORE OF A LINE, WITH HAIL PENNY TO
NICKEL SIZE POSSIBLE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THERE LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND STRENGTHENS THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN HAZARD LOOKS TO BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR BEING AROUND 12 KTS OR SO,
ALONG WITH STORM MOVEMENT OF 20 MPH OR LESS.
NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY IN GENERAL UNTIL THE WEEKEND. DURING
THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL EXPAND A
BIT MORE TO THE NORTH, PUSHING THE JET STREAM AND STORM CHANCES
FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S. HOWEVER MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT THE PRIOR DAY.
TOWARD THE WEEKEND A COUPLE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH, PUSHING THE JET STREAM SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. THE
WEATHER PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND, SO WHILE CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARE BETTER, THE PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE. THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY IMPACT INDEPENDENCE DAY PLANS. STAY TUNED FOR
DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING WITH
IT A QUICK CHANGE OF WINDS FROM THE NORTH, GUSTING UP TO 25-30
KTS. AFTER ABOUT 30-45 MINUTES, WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
START CALMING DOWN TO ABOUT 10-15 KTS, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE
MORNING. WE ARE LOOKING AT STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, LIKELY (70+%) HITTING KGLD, AND PROBABLY (50+%) HITTING
KMCK. SEE THE ABOVE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
HAZARDS. LINGERING STORMS AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SCATTERED AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
LINGERING CONVECTION IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME, BUT
THIS CONVECTION MAY LAST UNTIL SUNRISE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
WITH THE STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE
MULTIPLE HIGH PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA,
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. BASED ON A MIXTURE OF 0Z HREF,
AND MPAS GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS OTHER CAMS, THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE A FLOODING RISK WOULD BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN KANSAS.
THERE ARE TWO POTENTIAL SETUPS THAT COULD CREATE THIS FLOODING
CONCERN.
THE FIRST RISK OF FLOODING WOULD BE OFF OF THE FIRST
LINE OF STORMS. IF THESE STORMS FORM IN A LINE ORIENTED IN THEIR
DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, AND STAY CONCENTRATED AND DO NO SPREAD OUT,
TRAINING STORMS FROM THIS LINE COULD LEAD UP TO 2-5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN SOME LOCATIONS. IF THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT,
AREAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF INITIATION ZONE OF THIS LINE
WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO
OCCUR IS AROUND 10-15%.
THE SECOND RISK WOULD BE FROM AN MCV FORMING AS THE SECOND, AND
POTENTIALLY THIRD, WAVES OF STORMS COLLIDE. FOR THIS RISK TO
OCCUR, THE SECOND WAVE OF STORMS WOULD NEED TO BE STRONGER THAN
THE FIRST WAVE,, AND TWO SETS OF CLUSTERED STORMS WOULD SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AND COLLIDE IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS OR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. POTENTIAL FOR THIS RISK WOULD GREATLY INCREASE IF THE
FIRST WAVE DOES NOT FORM AT ALL. THIS RISK WOULD LEAD TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK, LIKELY AROUND THE SIZE OF A
COUNTY. THIS COULD LEAD TO 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AND AREAS
AROUND, AND INCLUDING, DECATUR COUNTY LOOK TO BE AT THE HIGHEST
RISK FOR THIS FLOODING THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS
AROUND 10%.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
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