389  
FXUS63 KGLD 240545  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1145 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE  
AREA WITHIN AN AREA OF 700-500MB MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OUT  
OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE BY 06Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO ONE INCH  
IN DIAMETER WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW  
TO UPPER 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S  
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  
 
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A QUIET MORNING WITH A COLD  
FRONT BISECTING THE AREA. WINDS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM  
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WHILE WEST OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE  
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH  
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER DURING THE  
EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 80S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE LOW TO MID 50S WEST, MID 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.  
 
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD  
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. 850MB  
TEMPERATURES AND BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S  
TO AROUND 90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 90S EAST OF THE  
CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. A DRY  
FORECAST IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  
 
SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FIRMLY OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER  
LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO NEVADA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. 850MB  
TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 1F TO 7F ACROSS THE AREA AND WHEN COMBINED  
WITH BETTER PERFORMING BIAS GRIDS PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID  
90S ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALONE WOULD SUPPORT READINGS  
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH THE CENTURY MARK POSSIBLE AROUND TRIBUNE,  
HOWEVER AN UNFAVORABLE AND SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD  
PREVENT FULL MIXING TO 850MB POTENTIAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT,  
GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, PLACING THE REGION UNDER  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS LEADS TO A HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH  
OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DECREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20  
PERCENT RANGE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY WITH S/SE  
WINDS GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH. HOWEVER, WITH OUR RECENT RAINFALL, AM  
THINKING THAT THE GREEN-UP IS UNDERWAY. WORKING TO COORDINATE WITH  
FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS ON THE STATUS OF FUELS IN THAT AREA.  
 
THE NEXT UPPER LOW REACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WEST COAST  
ON SUNDAY, PUSHING THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND BRINGING A RETURN OF  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE  
AND CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE HEADS TOWARDS  
THE DAKOTAS, WAVES EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOISTURE ADVECTS  
INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE RESULT IN LOW  
PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.  
 
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S, FOLLOWED BY A  
GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH THE 06Z TAF  
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT  
ALONG WITH LLWS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 40KTS AROUND 1KFT AGL PERSISTING  
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS POSITIONED ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. AFTER 21Z, EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MCK TAF SITE THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT WED MAY 23 2018  
 
WITH 90S EXPECTED FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCALES OVER THE  
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR  
THE 3-DAY PERIOD:  
 
SAT(5/26) SUN(5/27) MON(5/28)  
 
GOODLAND KS 97F/2012 99F/2006 98F/1998  
MCCOOK NE 102F/2012 103F/2006 101F/2006  
BURLINGTON CO 95F/2012 96F/2006 99F/1921  
HILL CITY KS 102F/2012 99F/2006 101F/2006  
COLBY KS 98F/1967 100F/1895 101F/2006  
TRIBUNE KS 101F/1927 100F/2006 100F/2006  
YUMA CO 96F/1942 97F/2012 97F/2006  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...JBH  
AVIATION...LOCKHART  
CLIMATE...JBH  
 
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