172
FXUS63 KGLD 122000
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON MAY 12 2008
DISCUSSION
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/WINDS/PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR SALT LAKE CITY WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO NEVADA TONIGHT CONTINUING TO DIG TOWARD SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH AN INITIAL SHOT OF WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH
SUBSIDING A BIT SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...COMBINATION OF DEEPEST 850-500 MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS FAVORS THE NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA FOR PRECIP TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SOME 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER
THEN TODAYS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S FAR WEST TO 55 TO 60
ELSEWHERE. COULD BE A TAD COOLER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THEN EAST RACING WESTERN TEXAS BY
00Z THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME SUN EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH AND
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN LATE IN THE
DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 65-70 RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR FAR
SOUTH WILL LIFT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THEN INTO THE MIDWEST AS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FORECAST AREA GETS CAUGHT IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
AREA OF LIFT/FORCING/ENHANCED PRECIPITABLE WATER IN BETWEEN THE TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS. WILL CARRY SOME LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE ENDING THINGS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY COOL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN 1/3
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. 850 TEMPERATURES WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. MONDAY LOOKS HOT PER
GFS 850 TEMPS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A FRONT BACKING FURTHER WEST
THROUGH THE AREA RAISING QUESTIONS ON JUST WHAT THE TEMP WILL BE.
FOLLOWED SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE MEX GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS AROUND
80/LOW 80S.
AVIATION
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING NEAR 25 OVER KGLD AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH OVER KMCK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AFTER 00Z... HAVE INSERTED CB TO BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SHOWERS ENTERING THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AS CIGS DROP NEAR 1.5 KFT.
BURTIS
FIRE WEATHER
WILL MAINTAIN RED FLAG WARNING AS OVERALL ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS
FAVORABLE.
DDT
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-
041-042.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
WFO GOODLAND
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