515
FXUS63 KGLD 202309
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
409 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT - MONDAY)
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES LATE
SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. SECOND...AND STRONGER...SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TWO CAMPS...THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE A DEEP CUT OFF LOW NEAR OR OVER THE CWA WITH
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND WIND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT...THE
ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO INDICATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE
OPEN WAVES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
HPC GUIDANCE PREFERS THE FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF SOLUTION...THUS WILL BE
BUMPING UP POPS...WIND...AND QPF IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY PERIODS. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY - FRIDAY)
200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
TUESDAY DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PREFER
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HAVE TUESDAY COLD WITH A
CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE EAST. THE PLAINS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THERE IS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA. HOWEVER THINK MOISTURE
WILL BE SCARCE BY THAT TIME AND IT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
024
AVIATION
409 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT BECOME GUSTY AROUND THE 15G25KT RANGE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
50
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
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