174  
FXUS63 KTOP 300429  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1129 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY AND STEADILY  
BUILDING EAST THIS AFTERNOON, DOMINATING THE REGION WITH PLEASANT  
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. A FEW  
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER  
BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY BY EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR  
AND LIKELY BECOMING CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN  
VALLEYS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAIN  
LAST WEEKEND THAT IT COULD SUPPORT FOG...MAINLY SHALLOW AND  
PATCHY...ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH A FOCUS IN VALLEYS. THERE IS  
PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KS  
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WHILE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIGHT  
WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO MITIGATE FOG POTENTIAL FARTHER EAST.  
FRIDAY WILL BE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO  
AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM 1-3  
DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BEGINS TO  
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
THROUGHOUT THE CWA INDICATE A VERY DRY PROFILE WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE  
FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DO BELIEVE THOUGH THAT SOME  
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON  
SATURDAY, HOWEVER BELIEVE MOST OF NORTHEAST KS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY  
SUNNY. HIGHS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE PERSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS  
TRENDS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S ON  
SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS  
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 
UPPER PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS A DEEPENING MID LEVEL  
TROUGH DIPS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING INTO  
OUR REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF,  
WHILE PERSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS, ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH  
EACH OTHER ON THE TRACK AND SPEED. ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND NOT AS  
POIGNANT WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER AND POSES  
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A DECENT DRY LINE SETS UP. WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR TRENDS, BUT OVERALL A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, COOLER AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE WAVE  
COOLS TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS FALLING BACK  
INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016  
 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROG ANY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN VERY  
SHALLOW AND THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS FAIL TO SATURATE THE SURFACE.  
BECAUSE OF THIS WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST WITHOUT ADDING A  
MENTION OF FOG, BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHALLOW  
GROUND FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH  
LONG TERM...PRIETO  
AVIATION...WOLTERS  
 
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