999  
FXUS63 KTOP 182325  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
625 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
LIMITED INHIBITION AND A MOIST AND WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE MAY  
LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE MAIN  
ATTENTION FOR THE NEXT ROUGHLY 18 HOURS IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO  
THE NORTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY UNDER  
AN UPPER WAVE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY, BUT NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT, MU CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND A MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW-  
LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REACHING THE AREA.  
SHOULD SEE SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WOULD ARRIVE BUT SOME STRONG  
WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  
CONVECTION MAY WELL LINGER INTO THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS THURSDAY  
BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BRING A WARMER AIRMASS INTO PLACE FOR  
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. ENOUGH CONCERN FOR DIURNAL HEATING EXISTS  
TO GO AHEAD WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BUT THIS  
AREA MAY NEED ADJUSTMENTS AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME APPARENT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
CONCERNS FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THESE PERIODS REMAINS LOW AS A  
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE. THERE ARE  
SOME INDICATIONS WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD BRING SOME ELEVATED  
STORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT AVAILABLE  
INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MODEST. THE RIDGE DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN  
SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK AND MAY ALLOW A WEAK  
BOUNDARY TO REACH THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES  
THIS EVENING AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR  
AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE  
MENTION OF TSRA AT TOP/FOE AT THIS TIME. THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED  
TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ026-039-040-  
054>056-058-059.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...65  
LONG TERM...65  
AVIATION...HELLER  
 
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