329
FXUS63 KTOP 162027
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
327 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
DISCUSSION
WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WERE PRESENT AT 19Z. MODELS
ALREADY STARTING OFF THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS.
HAVE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN JET IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CANADA. RIDGE WAS BUILDING GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS.
TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL COOL OFF INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH THE WARMER TEMPS OUT
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED TONIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE WEST OF A COUNCIL GROVE TO HIAWATHA LINE. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM NEAR 720 MB WHICH WILL YIELD
TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
53
WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES FURTHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
KS LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERTICAL VELOCITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME...SO DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES NC KS...SO HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES GOING THERE
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN CONSISTENT IN SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE ENDING SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE IN MODEL UPPER AIR FORECAST PATTERNS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF BRINGS DECENT UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG JET ACROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS
HAS A MUCH SHALLOWER WAVE IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. BOTH FORECASTS
WOULD GIVE SOME CHANCE THUNDER BY THEN SO HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ON
WEDNESDAY FOR NC AND FAR NORTHEAST KS.
OTHER THAN SOME MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE 80S...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID MAY.
60
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASE IN SPEED OVER 10 KTS IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AT KMHK AND
15Z AT KTOP AND KFOE THURSDAY.
BOWEN
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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