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FXUS63 KTOP 291113
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS TODAY. SOME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND TO 60 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID TO START THE WEEK. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
WERE LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW ROGUE WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAILSTONES MAY
PUNCH THROUGH THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER, BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS DESPITE THE AMPLE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY. THE EVOLUTION
OF TODAY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MORNING
STORMS AND THE VARIOUS SCENARIOS DEPICTED IN SHORT-TERM MODELS.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THAT THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MO, BRINGING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A QUIET LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH A COOLER AND MORE CAPPED BOUNDARY-LAYER. THEN THE
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. MOST MODELS DEPICT SOME SCATTERED STORMS OR
SEVERAL COMPLEXES OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND
HOW UNSTABLE WE CAN BECOME BY THE EVENING WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING WHETHER WE HAVE ELEVATED OR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. IF WE CAN DESTABILIZE AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
EARLY ENOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WE MAY ONLY SEE ELEVATED STORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH MONDAY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 60S WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY BETTER THAN CONDITIONS AS OF
LATE. THE HUMIDITY MAY NOT FULLY BUILD BACK IN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN THE SHORT-TERM MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO STORM EVOLUTION FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, WILL KEEP ONLY A PROB30
MENTION FOR NOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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