756  
FXUS63 KTOP 231210  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
610 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017  
 
IN THE SHORT TERM, UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH  
SETUP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CONUS. CURRENTLY, SOME AREAS OF  
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY WITHIN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF NORTHEASTERN  
KANSAS. WITH CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CALM WINDS, IT IS  
EXPECTED THAT MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL FORM THROUGH DAYBREAK. IT  
SHOULD BURN OFF INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS LEAVING A PLEASANT DAY IN  
PLACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF  
THE AREA. NO WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT TO IMPACT  
NORTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY  
INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL AS WINDS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED  
WITH A DEVELOPING COLORADO LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS  
THE TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, HAVE WINDS CONTINUING  
TO INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017  
 
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ADVECTS  
OVER THE REGION QUICKLY DEVELOPING THE LOW AND MOVING IT OFF TO THE  
NORTHEAST. WAA CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE  
20-25KT RANGE. THIS WILL HELP GIVE HIGH TEMPS A BOOST INTO THE MID  
AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST  
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE  
PRECIPITATION REMAINS CONFINED OVER VERY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA AS MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH POSSIBLE  
AMOUNTS. SO IF MUCH PRECIP FALLS, IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF  
RAIN TO BEGIN BUT COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW QUICKLY INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED IF ANY SNOW  
DOES FALL AND ONCE AGAIN MOST LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA  
BORDER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH MAINLY  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE.  
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF FURTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE  
FORECAST FOR NOW AS CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL AND PREDICTABILITY TOO  
LOW AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING TO OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
WITH BROAD TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, STILL EXPECTING  
TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS  
GENERALLY IN THE 20S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON JAN 23 2017  
 
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH  
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/2 SM MAINLY FOR  
KTOP/KFOE TERMINALS. HIGHER VIS EXPECTED NEAR KMHK. WINDS  
GENERALLY INCREASING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE SSE  
BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADY THIS EVENING. GRADIENT FROM LOW  
PRESSURE TO THE WEST COMES INTO PLAY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH  
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. LLWS MAY COME INTO  
PLAY TOO NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF  
TAFS FOR NOW AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CHANGE SEEMS SMALL AND WINDS  
MORE UNIFORMLY INCREASE WITH HEIGHT.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DRAKE  
LONG TERM...DRAKE  
AVIATION...DRAKE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page