375  
FXUS63 KTOP 271129  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
629 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH  
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD  
TRACKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY WAS STRETCHED ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE  
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/MISSOURI STATE BORDERS. EARLY MORNING DEWPOINTS  
WERE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER  
60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES, RESULTING IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT PRESENT ACROSS  
THE AREA. WHILE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS FAR  
EASTERN KANSAS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD  
COVER THAT, ALONG WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS, MAY HELP TO SUPPORT SOME  
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH  
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING  
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, AND THIS  
SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THIS COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS  
NEBRASKA TODAY AND NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT. EXPECT  
DRY CONDITIONS DURING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE AREA BECOMES  
WEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO COLD FRONTS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING  
OUT IN THE LOW 90S. EXPECT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN  
KANSAS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP IN  
PLACE AND DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, EXPECT ENOUGH  
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN KANSAS TO RESULT IN 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THESE  
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,  
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE COVERAGE OF  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN  
KANSAS AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST FORCING MAY BE FOCUSED  
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. REGARDLESS, WITH THESE ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL  
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG WINDS  
AND HAIL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT, ONLY HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN AT THIS TIME FOR  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST  
KANSAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016  
 
THE LONG TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE  
EXPECTED COOLER TEMPERATURE INFLUX. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE MAINLY  
IN THE 80S, WITH SOME RELIANCE AND FLUCTUATION BASED ON ANY  
DAYTIME PRECIPITATION AND RELATED OVERNIGHT COULD COVER. ALL-IN-  
ALL, A PERIOD OF RELATIVE CONSISTENCY IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY  
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE  
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWEST  
FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP OVERHEAD. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE  
RATHER PERSISTENT THROUGH AROUND SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN A SHIFT  
TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY. UNTIL THAT TIME,  
EXPECT MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON AN ALMOST DAILY AND  
NIGHTLY BASIS. WILL FOCUS ON A FEW SPECIFIC PERIODS THAT PERHAPS  
GARNER MORE INTEREST FROM AN IMPACT AND CONFIDENCE PERSPECTIVE.  
 
FIRST, HAVE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES IN NORTHERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY  
MORNING AS A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM  
THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL THAT THE FRONT WILL  
INTERACT WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, PROBABLY  
DIMINISHING AS IT BUILDS TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  
THE REST OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE AN MCS  
DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA AND THEN BUILDING INTO KANSAS AS A STRONG  
SHORT WAVE AND JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPING, BUT A BIT LOWER  
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN  
ONE CAMP IN DEVELOPING A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TUESDAY NIGHT  
IN NE AND BRINGING IT INTO KS BY SUNRISE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH  
AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP THE CONVECTION A BIT  
FARTHER EAST IN NEBRASKA AND BRING IT SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING  
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFIC DETAILS, WESTERN  
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF  
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ANY RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...AND  
MCS MAINTENANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE FAVORED IN THOSE AREAS AS  
WELL SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FOCUS HIGHER POPS IN WESTERN ZONES.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR  
LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO  
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KS. INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE  
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT A RELATIVELY STATIONARY  
INITIATION ZONE AND SREF PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES  
SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.  
 
WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS AND A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY ON FRIDAY  
AND THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT ON  
SATURDAY POINT TO CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND  
ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016  
 
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, AREAS OF DENSE FOG CAUSING VLIFR VISIBILITIES  
WILL IMPACT KTOP/KFOE THIS MORNING. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY  
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ026-039-  
040-056-059.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE  
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH  
AVIATION...HENNECKE  
 
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