945  
FXUS63 KTOP 252329  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
AS OF 20Z, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO RESIDE  
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. WATER VAPOR REVEALS A SUBTLE  
700MB WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA, CONTRIBUTING TO THE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS. AS THE WAVE  
EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THE BULK OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EASTWARD  
OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY  
400. AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD IN,  
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD. TO THE NORTH OF  
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY  
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. A SECONDARY EMBEDDED WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, SPARKING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SECONDARY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.  
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (5-6 C/KM) AND DEW POINTS IN THE  
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE BETWEEN 500 AND  
1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEAR 30 KNOTS. DUE TO THE  
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS APPEARS LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL  
REMAIN ~10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING BUT SHIFT  
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY, UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IT SHOULD  
ALSO BRING ONE MORE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
RETURN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LLJ ALSO RETURNS OVER THE  
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH ADVECTS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRENGTH OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RETURN THERE  
IS, AND THE TIMING OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE, BUT AT THIS  
TIME MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS  
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.  
 
FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS OUT OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND COULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS  
OF CONVECTION, BEFORE THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISLODGES IT TO THE  
SOUTH LATE FRIDAY. OVERALL THE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED, WITH CHANCES  
FOR STRONG STORMS, AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL. RECENT RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS SUGGESTING FRONT MAY MOVE  
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH AN  
ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, TIMING COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE BETWEEN  
NOW AND THEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT THE  
TERMINALS. SHRA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS  
THROUGH 14Z THEN FOCUS NEAR OR TO THE NORTH AFTER 17Z. WINDS  
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BAERG  
LONG TERM...67  
AVIATION...53  
 
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