838  
FXUS63 KTOP 032109  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
309 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2016  
 
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO  
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF  
THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 20Z. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
OFF TO THE EAST OVER ILLINOIS WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW INTO  
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. BETTER MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO  
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE  
CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND  
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 500MB LAYER. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN  
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH AND HAS ACCUMULATED ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS  
REPUBLIC COUNTY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OR  
LIGHT SNOW FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS  
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF  
RAIN. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM  
LATER TONIGHT. BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING TROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH 10Z SUNDAY. THE  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING IN EAST CENTRAL  
KANSAS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES  
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY  
COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S IN NORTH CENTRAL TO THE UPPER 30S EAST.  
SUNDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER  
50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2016  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO STAY DRY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW  
LIFTS NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST KANSAS AND A NORTHERN  
STREAM TROUGH AXIS ONLY DIGS AS FAR AS NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW  
KEEPS MONDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S AS THE AREA REMAINS  
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS  
KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTH  
NORTHWEST AND DROPPING HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR TUESDAY.  
MODELS LOOK TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH  
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS IN  
TERMS OF TIMING FOR CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND  
CONTINUING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST  
QPF AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH BRINGS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION  
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH SUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE, ANYTHING FALLING  
WILL STAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST TO EXIT  
THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF LAGS INTO THE  
NIGHT. FOR NOW, HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT ON  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS BOTH OF THESE DAYS TOP  
OUT IN THE 20S, WITH LOWS NEAR SINGLE DIGIT VALUES BOTH NIGHTS. WIND  
CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE NEGATIVES FOR THE FIRST  
TIME THIS SEASON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2016  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR AT THE TERMINALS FROM  
MHK TO TOP AND FOE FROM 20Z TO 03Z AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES  
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 05Z WITH  
MVFR/IFR BUT PREDOMINATELY MORE IFR AFTER 07Z. A CHANGE FROM IFR  
TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED IN THE 14Z TO 17Z TIME PERIOD ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...53  
LONG TERM...HELLER  
AVIATION...53  
 
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