511  
FXUS63 KTOP 280817  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
317 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING A MID-LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING INTO WESTERN  
KANSAS. LOW CLOUDS BLANKETED THE CWA THIS MORNING, AND WITH THIS  
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE, EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SCATTERING OF THIS CLOUD  
COVER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF OVERCAST SKIES AND EAST-  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT  
OCCURS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60  
DEGREES.  
 
MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND  
ADVANCING TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE, THE SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT  
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SHORT-RANGE  
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA, BUT HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THE  
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT, EXPECT  
MUCH OF THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS ENTERING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS  
SHOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING LATE EVENING THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE  
RAINFALL LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO  
SOUTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN KS. AS  
A RESULT, ADDED THE MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF  
COOLING THAT OCCURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE  
MID 40S TO LOW 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY AND INTO  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROWAL. LOBES  
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS  
EASTERN KANSAS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING OF  
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, LEADING TO RUNOFF AND RISES IN  
THE STREAMS AND CREEKS. THE BOUNDARY WILL ROTATE NORTHWESTWARD  
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTING  
TO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA  
AND KANSAS EXITING EASTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END  
TO THE PRECIPITATION. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING  
HIGHER AMOUNTS. 40 TO 55 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ALONG WITH 400 TO 1000  
J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD  
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY.  
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO  
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE  
MODELS WITH THE SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY  
OWING TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017  
 
MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS REMAINING OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF  
RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING IN AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY AFTER.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE  
LONG TERM...53  
AVIATION...WOLTERS  
 
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