535
FGUS74 KSHV 191651
ESFSHV
TXC183-203-365-401-419-423-459-499-LAC031-201051-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR MINEOLA
TEXAS FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
SABINE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 8.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FOR JUNE 19 - SEPTEMBER 18 2008
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LAKE FORK CREEK
QUITMAN 4S 16 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3
SABINE RIVER
MINEOLA 4S 14 6.4 6.4 6.4 7.1 8.0 9.8 11.0 12.4 15.8
GLADEWATER 3WSW 26 17.2 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 19.3
LONGVIEW 25 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.6 17.2
BECKVILLE 8NE 26 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.6
LOGANSPORT 28 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0
BIG SANDY CREEK
BIG SANDY 4NE 17 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8
RABBIT CREEK
KILGORE 10 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LK CHEROKEE 279.7 279.7 279.7 279.7 279.7 279.7 279.7 279.8 279.8
LK MARTIN 305.2 305.2 205.2 305.2 305.3 305.3 305.3 305.4 305.4
LK MURVAUL 264.8 264.8 264.8 264.8 264.9 264.9 265.0 265.0 265.2
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS PROBABILITIES COMPUTED
USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THIS URL: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SHV
(INTERNET ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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