277  
FGUS74 KSHV 191505  
ESFSHV  
ARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-  
031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-  
037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-  
419-423-449-459-499-200905-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING  
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR MINEOLA  
TEXAS FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE  
SABINE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 11.4 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID FOR MAY 18 - AUGUST 17 2017  
 
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
 
LAKE FORK CREEK  
QUITMAN 4S 16 3.1 3.1 4.1 5.2 6.6 16.0 16.6 16.8 18.0  
SABINE RIVER  
MINEOLA 4S 14 6.7 7.5 8.9 9.9 11.4 12.7 14.1 16.2 16.9  
GLADEWATER 3WSW 26 7.9 8.7 9.9 11.0 15.0 16.2 19.4 22.9 26.4  
LONGVIEW 25 6.8 6.8 9.1 10.7 13.7 16.5 19.4 22.1 25.0  
BECKVILLE 8NE 26 9.7 9.7 11.1 12.1 13.5 15.3 17.3 20.7 25.5  
LOGANSPORT 28 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.4 24.0 24.9 25.8 27.9  
BIG SANDY CREEK  
BIG SANDY 4NE 17 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.9 9.0 9.8 10.9 12.1 13.0  
RABBIT CREEK  
KILGORE 10 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 6.1 8.8 11.9 15.6  
 
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  
LK CHEROKEE 278.3 278.3 278.3 278.4 278.5 278.9 279.9 280.4 280.9  
LK MARTIN 305.4 305.4 305.4 305.4 305.5 305.9 306.1 306.3 307.1  
LK MURVAUL 265.0 265.0 265.0 265.1 265.2 265.4 265.8 265.9 267.3  
 
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK USES PROBABILITIES COMPUTED  
USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL  
AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY PROVIDING THE  
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK  
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT THIS URL: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SHV  
(INTERNET ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).  
 
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DURING THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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