682  
FXUS64 KSHV 242121  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
421 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI HAS KEPT MOST OF  
THE CWA DRY AND HOT TODAY. A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS OFF THE  
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS MOISTURE STREAM IS BEING DRAWN WESTWARD  
AROUND THE RIDGE AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY. DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF  
THE DAILY SEA BREEZE AND THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE PLUME. CONVECTION  
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM  
LUFKIN, TO NATCHITOCHES, TO MONROE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING. SPEAKING OF HEAT, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE MOST OF  
THE CWA ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S  
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY  
LEVELS STILL IN PLACE, MOST LOCATIONS IN THE HEAT ADVISORY SAW  
HEAT INDEX VALUES EASILY CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES F. A FEW  
LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA  
ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM EL DORADO SOUTHWARD TO MONROE AND  
COLUMBIA. HOWEVER, THE DURATION OF THIS HEAT ON THURSDAY IS  
EXPECTED TO BE VERY BRIEF DUE TO THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION, SO  
THE CURRENT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN  
UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF STALLS NEAR HOUSTON, TX. THE  
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ON  
FRIDAY AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE  
AREA. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST WITH THE TROUGH, BUT  
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST  
SIDES OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SCATTERED  
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR TROPICAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE  
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY  
STILL IN THE CARIBBEAN AND RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED. THE MEDIUM  
RANGE MODELS SHOW NO AGREEMENT AND TERRIBLE RUN-TO-RUN  
CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER, THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.  
 
/09/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 76 92 74 91 / 10 50 20 60  
MLU 77 93 74 92 / 10 50 20 50  
DEQ 72 92 73 88 / 10 30 10 60  
TXK 74 92 73 89 / 10 40 20 60  
ELD 74 92 73 90 / 10 40 20 50  
TYR 75 91 74 88 / 10 40 10 60  
GGG 75 91 73 89 / 10 50 10 60  
LFK 75 91 74 90 / 10 50 20 60  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ073.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-  
017>022.  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ153-166-167.  
 

 
 

 
 
09  
 
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