929  
FXUS64 KSHV 240442  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WELL NORTH OF KTXK HAVE DEVELOPED AND  
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY  
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF TERMINALS. HOWEVER, A CLUSTER OF  
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE  
REGION, AND PERHAPS ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE  
ISOLATED -SHRA THAT COULD NEAR KTYR OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER  
CLUSTER OF -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN CO IS POISED TO PROGRESS  
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECT LOCALES NORTH  
OF KTXK TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO INSERT A  
PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL OF COURSE  
AMEND AS NECESSARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS BELOW 10 KTS ENSUED TONIGHT  
AND WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SPEEDS  
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.  
WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT  
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TERMINALS, AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-  
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 924 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018/  
 
UPDATE...  
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. INCREASED POPS TO  
LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND  
SOUTHWEST AR, AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALBEIT STRUGGLING TO  
GET GOING, HAS COMMENCED ACROSS THE SAID AREAS PER LATEST RADAR  
ANALYSIS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE LOCALES NORTH OF  
THE FOUR-STATE REGION TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES. IF  
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE IS WARRANTED, WILL OF COURSE DO SO.  
OTHERWISE, TWEAKED THE SFC TEMPERATURE CURVE TO REFLECT CURRENT  
TRENDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY TWEAKED THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND  
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OLD OUTFLOW  
BNDRY FROM THE SE OK/EXTREME NE TX CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS  
BEGUN TO RETREAT BACK N TO NEAR THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK/NE TX, AND  
INTO SW AR, INDICATIVE OF THE NWD EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THESE AREAS.  
THIS ALSO CORRELATES WELL WITH THE SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS, WITH A W TO  
E TONGUE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR EXTENDING NEAR AND JUST S OF THE RED  
RIVER OF NNE TX INTO MUCH OF SW AR, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS  
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AS OF 20Z. EVEN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER  
90S ATTM OVER THESE AREAS, HEAT INDICES HAVE CLIMBED TO 105-109  
DEGREES OVER A SMALL AREA BETWEEN PRX AND ELD. THIS BNDRY SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK N THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT, WITH A  
QUIET EVENING EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE CU FIELD DIMINISHING SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, STILL WATCHING THE CU FIELD OVER N TX/SRN OK  
ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THE SFC THETA-E FIELD, WHICH MAY BE THE TARGET  
AREA THIS EVENING FOR SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT, AHEAD OF SUBTLE  
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES THAT WILL TRAVERSE OK/N TX. THE 20Z RAOB FROM KFWD  
STILL DEPICTS SOME WEAK CIN OVER N TX WHICH HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH  
IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL GROWTH TO THE CU FIELD GIVEN THE MODERATE  
INSTABILITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED. THE 12Z HREF AND GFS ARE OVERDONE WITH  
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH  
MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR PER THE NAM/HRRR CONSENSUS OVER  
CNTRL/SRN OK AND PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX, WHICH WOULD TRAVERSE E ALONG  
THE RESIDUAL THETA-E AXIS OVERNIGHT.  
 
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING FOR JUST  
MCCURTAIN CO. OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW AR ALONG THE THETA-E  
AXIS, AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TONIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR THE NW  
ZONES TO RESPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BNDRYS THAT MAY  
DEVELOP/SURGE ESE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX CONVECTION. HOWEVER,  
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR AND THE PROXIMITY OF  
THE FLAT RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD INHIBIT THIS  
CONVECTION FROM REACHING MUCH OF THE CWA, IF AT ALL. NEEDLESS TO SAY,  
BELIEVE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW FOR OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  
 
WHATEVER RESIDUAL CONVECTION STILL ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD  
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MIDDAY, AS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SE CONUS RIDGE  
BEGINS TO EXPAND FARTHER W AND AMPLIFY N INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND TN  
VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE  
NW ZONES SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE REMOVING THEM THEREAFTER AS THE HEAT  
CRANKS UP FURTHER AREAWIDE. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
THAN THE BLENDS/MOS (AND MORE OF PERSISTENCE), WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED  
TO MIX OUT A LITTLE BETTER OVER SE OK/SW AR/EXTREME NE TX WHERE THEY  
FAILED TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE  
WEAK SFC BNDRY. THUS, HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF AN A HEAT ADVISORY  
ATTM. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE HOT (AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS) AND DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH LITTLE IF  
ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF JUNE.  
 
15  
 
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
A BROAD EAST TO WEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORING IN AROUND 593 METERS  
ACROSS THE SW USA EASTWARD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY WASH OUT BEFORE  
ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT WITH NO CHANGE TO HOT AND PRECIP FREE  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM SOME HALF HEARTED ATTEMPT AT SEA  
BREEZE SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MID WEEK, OVERALL PATTERN  
SUGGESTING AN EXTENDED RAIN FREE PERIOD, AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD.  
 
TEMPS TO CONTINUE IN MAINLY THE MIDDLE 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, WITH  
TEMPS TO FINALLY BEGIN TO CREEP INTO UPPER 90S GIVEN STRENGTH OF  
RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKEWISE, WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S  
AS IT APPEARS THAT TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO SOURCE OF VENTILATION TO LOWER THE  
DEWPOINTS, WHICH HAVE EDGED UPWARDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. /07/  
 
 
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 78 95 78 95 / 10 10 0 0  
MLU 76 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 0  
DEQ 74 92 74 93 / 30 20 0 10  
TXK 76 94 76 94 / 10 10 0 0  
ELD 77 94 76 94 / 10 10 0 10  
TYR 77 95 77 94 / 20 10 0 10  
GGG 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 0  
LFK 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29/15/07  
 
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