924  
FXUS64 KSHV 222319  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
619 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA NOTED SOUTH OF KMLU AND WELL  
NORTH OF KTXK, THE FORMER LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING  
THUS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT THE LATTER IS CAUSED  
BY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, AND SERVE  
AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS TAF CYCLE WILL SHOW  
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE FRONT, WITH  
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA AT KTXK  
AND KELD AT THIS TIME. SOME COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS  
PRECIPITATION BREAKING APART THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW,  
HENCE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE FARTHER SOUTH TERMINALS SUCH AS  
KLFK. HOWEVER, A VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SEEM APPROPRIATE  
FOR THE REMAINDER SITES, BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND NECESSARY.  
OTHERWISE, FEW-SKC VFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT TO BECOME SKC-FEW  
OVERNIGHT WHILST SFC WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLEAR SKIES  
AND LIGHT WINDS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG, PARTICULARLY AT  
KLFK OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN AR/OK, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  
TROF OVER SE CANADA, CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SWD THIS AFTN.  
LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OUTFLOW STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE  
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL  
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD INTO OUR REGION  
TONIGHT/WED. FRONT WILL MOVE S OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY, LEAVING  
US WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTN CONVECTION FOR THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE  
REGION, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  
 
BIG STORY OF THE FCST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS  
WITH THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE REMNANTS ARE FCST TO MOVE INTO THE SRN  
GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE NNWWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL  
BEND. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF HARVEY. MODELS HAVE  
ADJUSTED THE TRACK NWD EACH RUN FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS OF  
RUNS. LATEST GFS/EURO/CANADIAN RUNS HAVE THE STORM STALLING/WOBBLING  
JUST ONSHORE /OR EVEN BACK INTO OPEN WATERS/ BEFORE MAKING AN EWD  
PUSH ALONG THE TX COAST. THIS IS NEW TO THE MOST RECENT MODEL  
RUNS, SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN FUTURE  
RUNS. ADDITIONAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE  
MODELS BEGINNING WITH THE 18Z RUNS TODAY, SO HOPEFULLY SOME  
IMPROVED RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL BE REALIZED OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR VERY BEST FIRST GUESS OF WHAT HARVEY WILL MEAN  
TO OUR REGION PLACES US SEEING TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL  
AREAWIDE, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY, BEGINNING SATURDAY  
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. POP/QPF GRIDS LEAN TO  
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THINGS, CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE FOUR OR  
FIVE DAYS OUT FROM THESE IMPACTS. ONE THING IS CERTAIN, ONE CAN  
EXPECT A LOT OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. /12/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 76 93 72 88 / 20 40 30 20  
MLU 75 90 70 85 / 10 40 30 20  
DEQ 73 86 66 85 / 50 40 20 10  
TXK 74 87 68 85 / 30 40 30 10  
ELD 74 87 68 85 / 20 40 20 10  
TYR 75 91 73 87 / 20 40 30 20  
GGG 75 92 72 88 / 20 40 30 20  
LFK 75 94 74 89 / 10 40 30 30  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29/12  
 
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