187
FXUS64 KSHV 280713
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THIS
WEEKEND, BUT A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL USHER
IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGINNING LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AREAWIDE AND PROMPTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR NW CWA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S BEFORE REBOUNDING BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
AFTER AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS LATE
IN DECEMBER, A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FINALLY
YIELD TEMPERATURES MORE REPRESENTATIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AFTER
TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO SEND LOW CLOUDS SURGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY, EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME BREAKS BECOME POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY AS SW WINDS REALLY RAMP UP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING
SE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR NW ZONES DURING THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, STRONG
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW FROPA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NW ZONES WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM
MONDAY MORNING WHEN WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY, CONVECTION SHOULD EXITING OUR EXTREME SE
ZONES ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARD
THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
AS WELL, PROPELLING THE STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF SOME 30-40 DEGREES IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MOVING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO DROP OFF SHARPLY. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. ONLY A MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A MODERATING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT, THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN GRADUALLY TRENDS MORE ZONAL. SOME DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE
TO PREVENT BETTER CLARITY ON A POSSIBLE LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEW
YEAR. FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD A WARMER AND DRIER
FORECAST UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR THE END OF THIS 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING OVER SE
TX/CNTRL AND SW LA, AND WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NNE ACROSS THE REGION
TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE IFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA, LOW MVFR CIGS ARE PRIMARILY
EXPECTED BEFORE ENGULFING MUCH OF THE REGION BY 09Z. THESE CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING, WITH VFR CIGS RETURNING BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON (BUT
POSSIBLY LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AT TXK). THIS
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE
INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF -SHRA
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR THE
TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS PRIOR TO 00Z MONDAY, AND ADDED VCSH
ELSEWHERE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE FROPA. ANY THUNDER (IF ANY)
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED, ALTHOUGH SOME POST-FRONTAL -SHRA
MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES
LOWER E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR. CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT WITH THE
FROPA, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AC CIGS DIMINISHING FROM
NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. S WINDS 6-12KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 11-16KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AFTER
15Z.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 39 50 30 / 10 50 0 0
MLU 79 39 49 28 / 0 60 0 0
DEQ 76 29 43 22 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 78 34 46 26 / 20 30 0 0
ELD 77 33 46 24 / 10 50 0 0
TYR 78 36 47 29 / 20 30 0 0
GGG 79 36 48 28 / 20 40 0 0
LFK 80 39 51 31 / 0 50 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059-070.
LA...NONE.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page