878  
FXUS64 KSHV 270027  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
627 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL HOLDING DESPITE CIGS  
LOWERING IN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION IS  
BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD  
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS TX INTO OUR REGION.  
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH MOSTLY MVFR AND  
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING  
AS CONVECTION INCREASES AND EXPANDS FARTHER EAST INTO THE REGION.  
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH JUST  
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.  
OTHERWISE, MAINLY SELY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME  
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS INVOF ON CONVECTION.  
 
/19/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 457 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE  
FOUR STATE AREA WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING GULF  
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL  
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
WITH THE ASSISTANCE FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT SHIFTING ACROSS  
THE AREA AS WELL. CONTINUED PASSAGES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES  
IN THE NEARLY ZONAL TO A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW  
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES INTO NEAR MID WEEK UNTIL A COLD FRONT  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA RETURNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BREAK  
IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE PATTERN STARTS TO REPEAT FOR THE  
NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS EAST OFF THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD RETURNING GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE BACK SIDE RETURNING  
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND AWAITING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. /06/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 58 77 64 82 / 70 50 30 30  
MLU 56 76 64 83 / 70 60 30 30  
DEQ 48 69 57 76 / 70 40 30 40  
TXK 52 72 61 78 / 70 50 30 40  
ELD 53 72 61 80 / 70 60 30 40  
TYR 59 78 63 80 / 70 50 20 40  
GGG 59 77 64 81 / 70 50 20 40  
LFK 61 80 65 83 / 70 50 30 30  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
19/06  
 
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