787  
FXUS64 KSHV 011145 AAA  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
645 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 01/12Z TAF PERIOD. AN  
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CIRRUS OVER MUCH OF TX/OK WILL CONTINUE TO  
QUICKLY EXPAND E ACROSS SRN AR/N LA THIS MORNING...WITH THESE CIGS  
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 12-15KFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A SCT CU  
FIELD WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY 18Z OVER SRN AR/NCNTRL LA...WITH  
THE CU FIELD A LITTLE MORE SPARSE FARTHER W INTO E TX. THIS SHOULD  
DIMINISH BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...WITH THE ELEVATED CIGS  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT/DIMINISH OVER E TX THIS EVENING AND OVER  
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. WITH SFC RIDGING REMAINING  
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXPECT LT/VRB  
WINDS TODAY BECOMING CALM OVER MOST AREAS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z  
SUNDAY. /15/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 606 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
CALM WIND AND SOME PATCHY FOG OVER OUR EASTERN HALF WHERE SKIES  
REMAIN CLEAR. OUR WESTERN HALF ALREADY HAS A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS  
WHICH WILL CONTINUE GETTING THICKER. THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE  
THESE CLOUDS FILTER THE DAY'S SUNSHINE MAKING FOR A NEAR REPEAT  
ON AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH ABOUT A  
HALF TO ONE FULL MILLIBAR GRADIENT SO THE FOG MAY LINGER INTO MID  
MORNING IN A SPOT OR TWO. WE WERE EXPECTING TO GET BACK ABOVE  
AVERAGE TODAY AS THE REFRESHING AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MODIFIED A  
GOOD BIT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THESE INCREASING CLOUDS  
WILL MAKE FOR PERSISTENCE WITH YESTERDAY'S EFFORT IN THE LOW 80S  
FOR MOST OF US.  
 
THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW STILL OVER IN/OH FOR THE  
OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AT LEAST OVER THE LAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS. A CLOUDY SHALLOW RIDGE IS SLIDING OVER MEXICO AND  
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SPREADING SOME MID AND ABUNDANT HIGH  
CLOUDS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY LATE TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME  
LOW CLOUDS TOO FOR GOOD MEASURE ON WHAT WILL AMOUNT TO A MOSTLY  
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT BIG TROUGH IS DIGGING  
DOWN THE BC AND NW US COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL DEEPEN OVER THE  
WESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS STILL LOOKING TO AFFECT  
OUR AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. EURO REMAINS CONSISTENT AND THE GFS IS  
STILL TRENDING DRIER.  
 
MEANWHILE, OUT IN THE CARIBBEAN HURRICANE MATTHEW IS STILL MOVING  
WEST AT ONLY 7 MPH AND IS NOW BACK DOWN TO CAT 4 WITH MAX WINDS  
AT 155 MPH DOWN FROM 160. THIS MAJOR HURRICANE WILL BE LIFTING  
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS  
BEEN A CHALLENGE AND WAS RECENTLY THE STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE  
SINCE 2007 WITH FELIX. AS FAR AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS LOOK, THE  
GFS IS RUNNING RIGHT UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE THE EURO IS  
MUCH FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK SPLITS THE  
DIFFERENCE ON THE WIDE END OF CONE AND GENERALLY WEAKENS THE STORM  
AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEK. CERTAINLY ONE TO WATCH FOR  
JAMAICA AND CUBA FOR NOW AND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN THE  
BAHAMAS MID WEEK. /24/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 82 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0  
MLU 84 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0  
DEQ 81 53 84 55 / 0 0 0 0  
TXK 82 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 0  
ELD 82 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 0  
TYR 82 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0  
GGG 82 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0  
LFK 83 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
15  
 
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