645
FXUS64 KSHV 092055
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 PM CST MON NOV 9 2009
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE SEEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...AND
ARE NOT REALLY RELATED TO IDA. SPEAKING OF IDA...SHE IS STILL
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS A TROPICAL STORM...WITH NO REAL IMPACTS TO OUR REGION.
FIRST PERIOD PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON. I WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 4KM WRF INDICATES A RATHER EXTENSIVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MY EASTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS IS
/PROBABLY/ DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
IDA. I FEEL THAT EVEN THOUGH THE DEPICTED COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THESE AREAS INTO
THE EVENING. I HAVE LEFT AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER MY EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARISHES...BUT MAY MAKE LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED UPON RADAR/MODEL TRENDS.
FURTHER NORTHWEST...THE LATEST SURFACE MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. A PASSING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW
THE FRONT TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. IN
GENERAL THOUGH...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE IT MOVES
INTO OUR AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY.
INCREASED RIDGING...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION...ALLOWING
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND...AS A
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...OUR AREA SHOULD COME UNDER A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLOWLY STARTS TO
SLIDE EAST. LITTLE MOVEMENT COULD BE SEEN IN THE FRONT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRIES TO
DIVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
FROM THERE...THE CRYSTAL BALL BECOMES NOTICEABLY MORE MURKY. THERE
APPEAR TO BE JUST AS MANY SOLUTIONS AS THERE ARE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. A
COUPLE OF THE MODELS PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...
ESSENTIALLY PUSHING A HUGE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME /IF NOT LATER/. OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS SEPARATE...WHICH COULD
PUSH A WEAKER FRONT INTO OUR AREA AT LEAST 12 HOURS SOONER. DEPENDING
ON WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT...WE COULD SEE TWO VERY DIFFERENT
FORECASTS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS FORECASTER'S CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. I PLAN LEANING
HEAVILY TOWARD OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS
SUCH. HOPEFULLY...A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. /21/
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT AND BKN CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 3KFT EXPECTED.
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS STILL LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FOUR STATE
REGION TOO MUCH. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THE ENE TO N
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE INTO
TONIGHT...AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FOR ALL SITES BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
AND 3 KFT. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE
REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 77 55 73 47 / 10 0 0 0 10
MLU 56 74 53 70 45 / 20 10 0 0 10
DEQ 52 76 50 72 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
TXK 56 75 54 71 46 / 10 0 0 0 10
ELD 55 74 52 71 43 / 10 0 0 0 10
TYR 57 76 54 73 50 / 10 0 0 0 10
GGG 57 77 54 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 10
LFK 58 77 54 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECASTER... D. BUTTS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER... A. BUTTS
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