651  
FXUS64 KSHV 281143  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
643 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS, SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE  
PERIOD, BUT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE  
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.  
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD  
AND SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH OR EXIT THE AREA BY 29/02Z. ALL TAF  
SITES WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED AT SOME POINT AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS  
WILL FLUCTUATE AND VARY BASED ON IMPACTS OF THE RAIN.  
 
/09/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 536 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SEEING AREAS OF -SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG THE RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS  
EXTENDING SW OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW NOW SHIFTING NE OVER WRN TN/NRN  
MS. THE 00Z NAM HAS AGAIN INITIALIZED WELL OF THIS REDEVELOPMENT  
THIS MORNING...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH  
THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE BASED THE FORECAST PRIMARILY ON THIS...WITH  
THE HRRR ALSO DEPICTING THE CURRENT CONVECTION WELL TOO. NOT  
EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT  
LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SRN AR...NEAR A WEAK MCV THAT IS NOTED  
ON THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION MAY WEAKEN LATE THIS  
MORNING (AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE S AR/NCNTRL LA CONVECTION  
WEDNESDAY MORNING)...WITH ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION INVIGORATED  
FARTHER S ACROSS DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THIS  
AFTERNOON ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS MAXIMIZED. HAVE INCREASED POPS  
TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF N LA/SRN AR...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER  
MUCH OF E TX WITH THIS WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S INTO  
THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. MAX TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE  
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION...BUT HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES  
OVER THE RAIN COOLED AREAS...WITH THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THE NW AND  
FAR SRN ZONES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH  
THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT HAVE INSERTED LOW CHANCE POPS THIS  
EVENING ALONG/S OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
ELSEWHERE. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO OUR NW  
ROUNDING THE DESERT SW UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL YIELD ISOLATED  
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN OK/NRN AND CNTRL AR WHICH MAY  
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR/JUST N OF THE NRN  
ZONES.  
 
THIS SECOND TROUGH SHOULD OVERTAKE THE INITIAL TROUGH OVER THE  
REGION FRIDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCT CONVECTION MAINLY  
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL TROUGH  
WEAKNESS OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY WITH  
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION BEING DRIVEN FARTHER N OVER CNTRL/ERN OK  
INTO WRN AR. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE  
LOSS OF HEATING...BUT MESOSCALE BNDRYS AND SWRLY H850 WINDS MAY  
STILL FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF  
SW AR BEFORE THESE WINDS VEER LATE AND THE BNDRY LYR STABILIZES.  
THIS WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY  
AND MAY FOCUS MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER SE OK/SW AR...WITH THIS  
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT S INTO E TX/N LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...MARGINAL MOISTURE...AND LACK OF  
ANY SUBSTANTIAL SFC/UPPER LEVEL FOCUS...HAVE TONED POPS DOWN TO  
LOW CHANCE FARTHER S ACROSS THE REGION AS THESE AREAS WILL BE MORE  
DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE BNDRYS.  
AFTERWARDS...CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS THE  
DESERT SW RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD E INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY...AND  
INTO THE MIDWEST/MS VALLEY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
AS A RESULT...THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO TURN UP THIS WEEKEND AND  
ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE MID  
90S THIS WEEKEND...AND UPPER 90S EXPANDING E ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE RECENT/ONGOING RAINFALL WILL HELP  
TO LOWER SOIL TEMPS AND SHOULD HOLD THE TRIPLE DIGITS AT BAY...BUT  
MIXING MAY BE LIMITED SUCH THAT HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR  
PORTIONS IF NOT MUCH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED CONVECTION  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL  
LA/DEEP E TX WHERE A WEAKNESS ALOFT MAY PERSIST ON THE ERN SIDE OF  
THE RIDGE.  
 
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...  
 
15  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 89 75 95 76 / 60 20 30 10  
MLU 88 74 93 74 / 60 30 30 20  
DEQ 89 73 92 73 / 40 20 30 30  
TXK 87 73 93 75 / 60 20 20 20  
ELD 87 72 92 73 / 60 20 30 20  
TYR 91 75 95 76 / 40 20 20 10  
GGG 90 73 95 76 / 50 20 20 10  
LFK 93 75 96 74 / 50 30 20 20  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
15/09  
 
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