285
FXUS64 KSHV 211646
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
DISCUSSION
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TWEAKS
IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. /06/
AVIATION
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SE OK.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS LINE.
STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A LARGE COMPLEX AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TIMING...TSTMS
COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 19Z...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 22/06Z. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE NW AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATE IN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. /09/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 69 86 67 88 / 50 70 30 10 10
MLU 89 69 86 67 88 / 40 70 60 10 10
DEQ 80 63 86 65 86 / 70 70 10 10 10
TXK 86 66 86 65 87 / 70 70 10 10 10
ELD 88 68 86 65 87 / 50 70 30 10 10
TYR 87 67 86 68 89 / 60 70 10 10 10
GGG 88 67 86 68 89 / 50 70 20 10 10
LFK 90 70 89 69 90 / 30 60 30 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
06/09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page