082  
FXUS64 KSHV 151122  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
622 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED NORTHWEST OF KTXK THIS MORNING,  
COURTESY OF A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COMPUTER MODELS HINT  
AT THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF KTXK  
THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED OF A STRAY -SHRA/-TSRA NEARS THE  
SAID TERMINAL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A  
MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.  
CONCURRENTLY, -SHRA HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WEST OF KLFK  
AND ONCE AGAIN WILL ELECT TO NOT INSERT A PRECIPITATION MENTION.  
MVFR FOG AND CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF KLFK AND WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED IF EITHER PHENOMENA AFFECTS KGGG, KTYR AND KMLU LATER  
THIS MORNING. HAVE HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH A SCT MENTION AT  
KGGG AND KTYR, BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT A TEMPO GROUP AT  
KMLU AND KLFK IS APPROPRIATE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR CALM  
WINDS OF THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE  
MORNING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON  
/BREEZIEST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS/.  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 KTS AND  
HINTS OF VFR-MVFR FOG COULD PLAGUE KLFK OVERNIGHT. /29/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 431 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
STUBBORN UA LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING IS SLOW TO  
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND AS SUCH, HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KS AND OK /CLOSEST TO THE DISTURBANCE/  
SOME OF WHICH HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EARLIER THIS MORNING.  
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROPAGATED  
TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TX, AND  
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AR LATER THIS MORNING.  
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF WIND GUSTS  
IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. AS THE UA LOW TREKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WILL  
COMMENCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTN, AND THAT  
BIT OF UL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH ENSUING SOUTHERLY FLOW /PWATS OF  
1.80-2.00 INCHES/ WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROGGED AFTN MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 400-700  
J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES, COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG  
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ENSUING PRECIP MAINLY  
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR WILL BE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL BE  
NOTABLY LESS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT BECOMES FLEETING, GIVEN THE UA  
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION. CONCURRENTLY, THE UA RIDGE  
THAT HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-  
HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE RETROGRADED TO ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST  
TX BY TOMORROW EVENING, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
 
THE PRESENCE OF THE RETROGRADING UA RIDGE WILL CAUSE DAYTIME TO  
WARM FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OF TODAY, TO THE  
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S TOMORROW /WARMEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN-HALF OF THE FA/. HEAT INDICES WILL THEREFORE RANGE FROM  
100-104 DEGREES WHICH IS JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
PATRONS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF  
OUTDOORS SUCH AS DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKING FREQUENT  
BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR-CONDITIONED LOCATIONS. /29/  
 
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH BASE OF AN  
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF CWA. MOSTLY  
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN AND NEAR SW AR, WITH MORE ISOLD POPS EXPECTED  
TOWARDS EAST TX. HOWEVER, STG SHORT WAVE IN DEEP N-NW FLOW ALOFT  
MAY BRING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE THUR NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO LOWER TO MID 90S AFTN TEMPS WITH  
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN IN MID TO UPPER 70S. WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT FOR  
THIS SEASON TRACKING SWD INTO SRN PLAINS MONDAY BUT AS UPPER FLOW  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL, INCREASED DOUBT AS TO ACTUAL TEMP IMPACTS FROM  
FRONT. CONVECTION COVERAGE PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH NUMEROUS  
COVERAGE POSSIBLE, BUT CLEARING FROM THE NORTH BY END OF EXTENDED  
PERIOD NOT AS CLEAR CUT. RATHER, UPPER EASTERLY FLOW MAY DEEPEN AS  
FRONT WASHES OUT, WHICH MAY KEEP WETTER PATTERN AROUND BEYOND END  
OF EXTENDED FCST PERIOD./07/.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 94 76 96 76 / 10 0 10 10  
MLU 95 76 96 75 / 0 10 20 20  
DEQ 88 74 89 74 / 40 20 30 20  
TXK 91 76 93 76 / 20 20 20 30  
ELD 92 76 93 75 / 10 20 20 40  
TYR 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 10  
GGG 93 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 10  
LFK 94 75 96 75 / 0 0 10 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29/07/99  
 
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