744
FXUS64 KSHV 300235
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008
..A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING
DISCUSSION
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CONVECTION HAS GONE TO BED FOR THE
NIGHT. SURFACE WEATHER MAPS INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...I HAVE LEFT SMALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES OVER OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE NORTH.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS /RATHER/ QUICKLY TO HURRICANE GUSTAV AND HIS
POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BRINGS THE CENTER ONSHORE AROUND
VERMILLION BAY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE CENTER
IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SOMEWHAT SLOW TREK TOWARD TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
FAIRLY LARGE IMPACT ON PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALY OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES/PARISHES. AS SUCH...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM.
RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN RAINY PERIOD WILL BEGIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GUSTAV TRAVERSES
THE FORECAST AREA. DATA FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER SUGGESTS 5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTAV...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
INCREASE ACCORDINGLY...ESPECIALLY OVER MAY SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. IT'S TOO SOON TO START MENTIONING ANY SORT OF WATCHES OR
WARNINGS OF THIS SORT. FOR NOW...ALL ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. LATER FORECASTS
WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK INFORMATION.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...I HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHER
CHANGES WERE MAINLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...BASICALLY TO REMOVE ANY
EVENING WORDING.
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET. AN
UPDATED SUITE OF PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /21/
AVIATION
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM DECAYING TX AND AR CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO THIN THROUGH 6Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 6Z TAF PERIOD...WITH VSBYS FALLING TO
2-5SM AGAIN AT SEVERAL AREA TERMINALS AS CIRRUS THINS AND LIGHT NE
WINDS PERSIST. SCT CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 16-17Z
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MID/LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. STILL
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS...THUS LATER
SHIFTS WILL ANALYZE NEW DATA AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. LT ENE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 95 74 95 73 / 10 20 20 20 20
MLU 71 96 72 96 72 / 10 20 20 20 20
DEQ 72 96 72 96 72 / 20 30 20 20 20
TXK 73 95 73 95 73 / 20 20 20 20 20
ELD 72 96 72 96 71 / 20 30 20 20 20
TYR 75 95 75 95 74 / 10 20 20 20 20
GGG 74 95 74 95 73 / 10 20 20 20 20
LFK 74 96 74 96 73 / 10 20 20 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECASTER...BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER...15
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