472  
FXUS64 KSHV 271744  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING AT KTYR FOR A FEW HOURS,  
BEFORE SCOURING OUT WITH AN ENSUING MVFR DECK AT KLFK /WHICH WILL  
LIKELY LAST FOR ANOTHER HOUR SO/ SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
IS MAKING A RETURN TO THE REGION. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTN WITH EAST- SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS OF 5-8 KTS EXPECTED. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS HAVE COMMENCED TO DEVELOP NEAR KSHV AND WEST OF KTYR. SOME  
HIGH- RES COMPUTER MODELS ARE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH HOW THIS  
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE BUT ELECTED TO INSERT -SHRA VCTS AT KLFK  
AND VCTS AT KTYR SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. WILL OF COURSE  
AMEND AS NECESSARY. SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, THE CONVECTION WILL  
DIMINISH AND WE WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE /AND AT TIMES CALM/  
WINDS AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH SCT VFR CIGS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT  
AT SLIGHTLY LESSER VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WHICH WAS THE MITIGATING  
FACTOR FOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LAST NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE  
INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AND FOG AT KTYR AND KLFK  
AND MORE MVFR FOG AT KGGG. IF VFR CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE BIT  
THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED THEN THIS TEMPO GROUP WILL BE MOOT AND AN  
AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED, HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER IS MAINLY SKC,  
CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE A BIT FURTHER THAN EXPECTED. WILL NEED  
TO PLAY THIS BY EAR AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, ANY  
LINGERING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL SCOUR OUT BY MIDNIGHT WHILST SFC  
WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
OVERALL, THE FORECAST LOOKS LARGELY ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES HAVE  
WARMED VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED  
BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, INCREASING  
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD SLOW THE RATE  
OF WARMING SLIGHTLY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POP GRIDS  
AS WELL, MAINLY TO DECREASE AND TRIM THEM BACK THROUGH 18Z TODAY.  
 
CN  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAIN  
WEST, WITH UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. OUR REGION UNDER WEAK  
BUT DISTURBED NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DISTURBANCE ALONG THE TX GULF COAST  
PROVIDING SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THE COASTLINE, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED  
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE CUTS OFF AND DRIFTS EWD  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING  
COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, THROUGH  
THURSDAY.  
 
ANOTHER TROF/COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SWD INTO OUR  
REGION FRIDAY, AND LOOKS TO BRING SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF  
CONVECTION FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN  
CHANCES TO DIMINISH TUESDAY, AS TROF DEPARTS TO THE E AND THE  
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO TX.  
 
OVERALL, TEMPS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO  
PRESENT SOIL MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION MOST  
DAYS. HOWEVER, TRENDS FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND SHOW THE RIDGE  
MIGRATING EWD, WHICH MAY SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF MORE TYPICAL  
ARKLATEX SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES. /12/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 72 90 73 88 / 10 10 10 40  
MLU 69 90 72 87 / 10 20 10 50  
DEQ 68 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 20  
TXK 70 89 72 88 / 10 10 10 30  
ELD 68 89 72 87 / 10 10 10 40  
TYR 72 89 74 89 / 10 10 10 30  
GGG 71 89 73 89 / 10 10 10 30  
LFK 72 89 73 89 / 10 40 20 40  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29/09/12  
 
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