653  
FXUS64 KSHV 231221  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
621 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH TO BTWN I-20 AND AR/LA STATE  
LINE, REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH ON TX SIDE OF AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE  
AND FOG NEAR BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX. SHOWERS, AND A FEW  
EMBEDDED TSTMS, NORTH OF BOUNDARY, WILL AFFECT THE KTXK TERMINAL  
UNTIL AROUND 23/15Z. THEREAFTER, ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION TO  
REDEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTN, BUT LIMITED WITH ONLY A FEW  
BREAKS IN OVC SKY COVER FOR DAYTIME HTG. CIGS BECMG MVFR, AND  
POSSIBLE LOW VFR AT TIMES ALONG I-20 TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER MAY  
EVEN BECOME SCATTERED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AT KLFK  
TERMINAL. CIGS TO BEGIN LOWERING AFTER AROUND 24/03Z WITH PATCHY  
DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG WITH IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS. STG CONVECTION  
WITH MAIN UPPER LOW TO APPROACH AREA LATE FRI NIGHT, BUT SHOULD  
NOT AFFECT ANY AREAL TERMINALS UNTIL JUST AFTER THE 24/12Z FCST  
EXPIRATION TIME. WINDS VRBL WITH FRONTAL POSITION BUT GENERALLY  
VARY FROM LGT NE TO SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KTS./07/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 605 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
E$RLY THIS MORNING THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR A MONROE,  
RUSTON, NATCHITOCHES, AND MANY LOUISIANA AND HEMPHILL AND JASPER  
TEXAS LINE. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS  
WELL AS THE TYPICAL FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. WELL TO THE NORTH A  
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED  
NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR  
AN 850 MB THETA-E AXIS. ADDED LIFT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH  
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE  
PERSISTANT UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES  
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA AND  
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OFF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR  
CONTINUED TO SHOW PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS  
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE HIGHER  
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH SMALLER  
TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN  
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION ONLY TO RETURN DURING  
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH  
FOR THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF A STRONG ARKANSAS TO HOMER, SIBLEY,  
AND SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA AND WASKOM, LONGVIEW, AND TYLER TEXAS  
LINE. HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE SOUTH OF THE ABOVE  
LINE SINCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS FOR TODAY AND  
OVERNIGHT. WILL MOST LIKELY PLACE THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES BACK IN  
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE DAY  
SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE  
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
DRIVING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY. WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE  
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BUMP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS UP WITH THE INCLUSION OF HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED ALONG  
WITH SEVERE WORDING WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,  
AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLY. STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DEADLY  
LIGHTNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT  
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THE WESTERN  
END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND LIFT BACK  
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES ACROSS EAST AND DEEP  
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SIMILAR IN KEEPING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT  
DRY IN WAKE OF PASSAGE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCES PROVIDING THE AREA  
WITH BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE  
AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE WARM FRONT OFF THE  
GULF COAST WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY  
RETURNING OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OF  
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST  
RETURNING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES  
ROUNDING THE BASE AND MOVING OUR WAY. IN WAKE OF THE MID WEEK WARM  
FRONT OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER DRY PERIOD  
WILL FOLLOW AS RAIN TAPERS OFF AFTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE  
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.  
/06/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 75 65 76 48 / 40 30 90 80  
MLU 79 66 78 53 / 50 40 50 80  
DEQ 62 57 69 37 / 100 50 100 20  
TXK 67 61 73 42 / 100 30 90 40  
ELD 73 63 75 46 / 80 40 90 80  
TYR 69 63 72 45 / 90 30 90 30  
GGG 72 63 74 46 / 70 30 90 30  
LFK 78 66 77 50 / 30 30 90 70  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-  
059>061-070>073.  
 
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>004.  
 
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-  
108>112-124>126-136>138.  
 

 
 

 
 
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