167  
FXUS64 KSHV 222313  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
513 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA  
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EAST  
OF OUR TERMINAL AIRSPACE AFTER 03Z OR SO. SOME CEILINGS HAVE  
BECOME MVFR UNDERNEATH THE PRECIPITATION...TXK AND ELD TERMINALS  
AND MLU WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUITE BUT EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINAL AIRSPACE THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH  
GUSTS SUBSIDING ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS AFTER  
06Z.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 418 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER  
EXTREME NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH ITS CENTER  
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE SYSTEM WAS HELPING PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE SURFACE A LARGE ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND  
WAS PROVIDING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS  
OF THE COUNTRY SINCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED MUCH OF THE  
PLAINS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. WILL KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN  
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATES AREA AND  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION FROM 9 PM - 1 AM CST MONDAY MORNING  
SINCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE TIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF NEAR MIDNIGHT AND INTO  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER WILL  
DECREASE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND  
RIDGING ALOFT INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL  
ALSO WARM INTO THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVE EAST ALLOWING MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH  
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE  
COUNTRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY  
RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA CONFINED TO THE MORE SOUTHERN  
ZONES FOR LATE TUESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE  
SOUTHERN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT RESULTING A NEARLY ZONAL  
FLOW FOR LATE WEEK.  
 
BOATERS VENTURING OUT TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS DUE TO THE  
ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES, RIVERS AND BAYOUS. SMALL BOATS WILL BE  
MORE PRONE TO CAPSIZING. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL ALSO BE  
AFFECTED BY THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. /06/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 43 64 47 74 / 10 0 0 10  
MLU 44 61 42 70 / 30 0 0 10  
DEQ 37 61 40 70 / 10 0 0 10  
TXK 40 62 44 71 / 10 0 0 10  
ELD 41 61 42 70 / 30 0 0 10  
TYR 41 67 49 74 / 10 0 0 10  
GGG 42 64 47 74 / 10 0 0 10  
LFK 43 68 48 77 / 10 0 0 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARZ060-061-071>073.  
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-  
059-070.  
 
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-  
017>022.  
 
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-  
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.  
 

 
 

 
 
06/13  
 
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