734  
FXUS64 KSHV 250201  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
901 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016  
   
UPDATE
 
 
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 LATE  
THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS ISOLATED ACTIVITY NOTED JUST SOUTH OF  
KSHV. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST  
LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS AS WELL AS RAISING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE  
CATEGORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AS SOME  
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 813 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
FOR THE ARKLATEX, LOTS OF VFR CIGS AND A LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW.  
ALOFT, OUR WINDS QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO SW/W 15-25KT INTO FLIGHT  
LEVELS. SPEEDS FINALLY REACH 50-70KT BY FL300-320. OVERNIGHT WE  
WILL SEE SOME MORE IFR/MVFR MAINLY FOR CIGS 09-15Z. CONVECTION  
DOES LOOK TO PICK UP IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
BRINGS LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES ALOFT EARLY IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
SOME IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR LATE SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS  
BACK IN IT'S WAKE AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG WEST COAST TROUGH. /24/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
THIS AFTERNOON, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINED ALMOST THE SAME AS  
IT HAS BEEN LATELY. RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
INTO THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND WITH CLOSED  
LOWS/TROUGHS ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. THIS SYNOPTIC  
PATTERN TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE  
LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS/DISTURBANCES  
RIDING ALONG IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO THE MIDDLE AND  
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST STATES ADDS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE WEAK DISTURBANCES  
IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY CONVECTION MAINLY  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MORE NORTHERN ZONES  
WILL TYPICALLY SEE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION GIVEN  
THE LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES AND AVAILABLE ENERGY. AN UPPER  
LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT OUT ACROSS THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION DURING THURSDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST  
AREA RAMPING UP TO HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORIES FOR LATE  
THURSDAY AND INTO LATE FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ERODING DURING THE  
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA  
AND BRIEF RIDING ALOFT RETURNING TO THE FOUR STATE REGION. HOWEVER  
FOR THE LATE WEEKEND THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST  
RETURNS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN  
STATES AND STARTS ITS TRACK EAST. /06/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PD. ISOLD/SCT  
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN  
LARGELY UNHELPFUL IN DETERMINING WHERE/WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. HAVE  
LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, MVFR  
STRATUS IS LIKELY AT MOST SITES AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD  
LIFT/MIX OUT BY AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-12 KTS  
AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE PD. /12/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 72 87 73 85 / 30 20 10 40  
MLU 70 89 72 87 / 10 10 10 30  
DEQ 69 85 71 83 / 30 20 10 50  
TXK 71 86 72 84 / 30 20 10 50  
ELD 70 88 72 85 / 20 20 10 40  
TYR 72 87 74 83 / 30 10 20 50  
GGG 72 87 73 84 / 20 20 10 40  
LFK 73 88 74 85 / 20 20 10 40  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
29  
 
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