157
FXUS64 KSHV 090404
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1004 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010
..A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING
DISCUSSION
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CAN BE ADEQUATELY
SUMMARIZED WITH ONE WORD TONIGHT... MESSY. LATEST WEATHER MAP SHOWS
A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF RAYVILLE LOUISIANA...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD JASPER TEXAS. MOST OF THE RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND SHOULD
LARGELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. AREA
RADARS SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANY FALLING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SECONDARY AREA IS LIQUID. HOWEVER...AS LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO COOL AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD...A MIX WITH OR
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING THE DIMINISHING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...I THINK WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES AT BEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE LOOMING ON THE
HORIZON FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...I HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPIONT GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. MODIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRIDS BASED UPON THE LATEST 4 KM WRF AND
RADAR TRENDS.
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE PUBLISHED TO THE INTERNET.
AN UPDATED SUITE OF PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /21/
AVIATION
IFR TO PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION...PRIMARILY ONLY AFFECTING KMLU. THIS
HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF KMLU BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FLURRIES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR KTXK AND KELD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT
FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH LUNCHTIME ON TUESDAY.
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN BY TUESDAY EVENING TO GIVE WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS OR LESS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 29 43 27 47 29 / 40 10 0 10 30
MLU 33 41 25 48 26 / 100 10 0 10 10
DEQ 29 41 21 46 24 / 50 10 0 0 20
TXK 28 42 24 44 25 / 50 10 0 10 30
ELD 30 41 23 44 24 / 60 10 0 0 20
TYR 29 43 26 46 29 / 20 10 0 10 40
GGG 30 43 26 47 29 / 20 10 0 10 40
LFK 32 47 26 49 31 / 20 10 0 10 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECASTER... D. BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER... A. BUTTS
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