869
FXUS63 KGLD 081727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
DISCUSSION
244 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS THE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAXES FOR TODAY AND MONDAY A SECONDARY
PROBLEM. SATELLITE SHOWING FAST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE
NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. DECENT/MODERATE STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO UTAH. AS OF 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS SHOW FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND HAS MADE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON CURRENT JET THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT MID LEVELS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT MODELS DID FINE ON
THE INITIAL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWED THROUGH 06Z THAT
THEY WERE TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE NAM WAS THE WORST OFFENDER AND IS WAY TOO DEEP AND SLOW.
THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE HANDLING CURRENT SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE
FRONTS LOCATION. THE LATEST RUC MATCHES THESE TWO WELL THROUGH
18Z. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE THERMAL FIELD...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THE WARMER AIR. THE GFS DID BETTER HERE AND OVERALL WAS THE BETTER
MODEL WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. FURTHER NORTH...THE NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE GFS.
GOING BY WHAT REALITY IS SHOWING...WILL MAINLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
RUC/SREF/ECMWF WITH A LITTLE NAM THROWN IN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INTERESTING/PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AS
FRONT MOVES NORTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 50S AS
WINDS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS KEEP THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION GOING WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SETTING IN EVEN WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SHIFT DOES NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE/THICKEN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS MID/UPPER LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THIS TIME...PLAN ON GOING TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE
WAS A LITTLE COOL YESTERDAY.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON JET POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE JET STILL WELL TO THE NORTH. JET MAX COMING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO STILL WELL TO THE WEST. AIR
MASS IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH MID LEVELS. THE WIND SHIFT
COMES IN SOON ENOUGH THAT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED
EAST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
STRONGEST...PUSHES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO CLEANS OUT THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STILL THERE. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IS LEFT
FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. QPF IS EVEN MORE SCANT THAN YESTERDAY. SO THE
CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE JET IS
DURING THE DAY WITH THE SAME TRENDS FROM THE MODELS AS YESTERDAY.
TO START THE DAY...THE ECMWF IS FLATTER/FURTHER EAST WITH JET COMING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/UKMET/GFS ARE SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THE JET/TROUGH. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
NAM/UKMET ABOUT THE SAME. THE GFS COMES INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF BY THE END OF THE DAY.
EVEN GOING BY THE MOST FAVORABLE MODELS...JET LIFT LIFT REMAINS
WEAK AND MOSTLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE. WHEN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE BETTER LIFT BUT
NOT THAT STRONG...THERE IS EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS EVEN LESS QPF THAN YESTERDAY. SREF/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE NO QPF WITH
THE NAM HAVING BARELY A HUNDREDTH. THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE. WILL
EITHER LIMIT MEASURABLE TO THE FAR NORTH OR JUST HAVE SPRINKLES.
WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...AND
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO COOL AND
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE
THE WINDS INCREASE FIRST WITH THE EASTERN HALF AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
THIRD BEING LIGHT FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT. SO LOWERED MINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE AREA PLENTY
OF SUN...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE IN DAY...AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY RECYCLED COOL AIR. EASTERN AREAS WILL
PROBABLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...
MAINLY IN THE WEST...AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY. SO WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS OUT IN THE WEST.
NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR
COLLABORATION
BULLER
AVIATION
1027 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. CURRENT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO A MID LEVEL CEILING BY ABOUT 00Z. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...BUT
WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES. CURRENT WINDS FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 20G30KT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM THE
NORTH BY 21Z...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN BELOW 10KT FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z.
BLM
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
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