973  
FXUS63 KGLD 230206  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
806 PM MDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 757 PM MDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MORE RECENT GUIDANCE, DECREASED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. SHIFTED RAIN CHANCES  
FROM OUR CENTRAL CWA TO THE WESTERN HALF TONIGHT, TO LINE UP  
BETTER WITH THE LOCATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, NO  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  
 
TOMORROW MORNING, WE ARE EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP AFTER  
SUNRISE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH  
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWLY  
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED  
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY  
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AND  
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST  
NEBRASKA ON THE EAST SIDE OF A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE THAT HAS  
POSITIONED ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH  
THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ONCE THE  
NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A DRYER AIRMASS ARE PRESENT ON  
THE BACK SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE  
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE REGION WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY  
DRY AND COOLER.  
 
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING  
ADDITIONAL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY. WITH THE ADDITION OF MOISTURE AND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS  
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER  
TROUGH, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE  
POSITION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE, MANY  
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF  
FLASH FLOODING BY LATE SATURDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE  
ROCKIES AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL  
PERSIST OVER THE AREA...ALBEIT WITH A SLOW TREND EASTWARD INTO  
MONDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WORKS OFF INTO THE PLAINS REGION. AS A  
RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...FROM  
RW/TRW...WILL PERSIST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY.  
 
FOR PRECIP TOTALS...THE AREA COULD SEE A LARGE RANGE FROM 0.60" TO  
ALMOST 2.00" FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE  
HIGHEST POTENTIAL TOTALS REMAIN ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES DUE  
TO PROXIMITY AND POSITIONING TO THE SURFACE FRONT. SOME LOCALIZED  
AMTS OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED ARE POSSIBLE...ALL OF WHICH KEEPS A  
FLASH FLOODING/FLOODING THREAT IN THE FOREFRONT.  
 
BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE  
WILL BE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING NORTHERN ZONES BUT  
CLEARING OUT GOING INTO TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT  
FRIDAY...MODELS DO KEEP MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE AREA W/ A FEW  
WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT DO DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL/TRW IS POSSIBLE.  
 
FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE  
EXTENDED...AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL OCCUR FOR ALL  
LOCALES...WITH NEAR NORMAL NUMBERS RETURNING FOR THE LATTER PORTION  
OF THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT FRI SEP 22 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A VERY SLOW MOVING SURFACE  
TROUGH/FRONT/DRYLINE. AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP ACROSS  
THE REGION, SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND LLWS WILL DEVELOP AS  
THE STRONGER WINDS REMAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING, BUT COVERAGE  
AND PROBABILITY OF STORMS IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE  
MCK AND GLD TAFS FOR NOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND DEEPEN ALOFT  
OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...EV  
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART  
LONG TERM...JN  
AVIATION...LOCKHART  
 
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