698  
FXUS63 KGLD 232240  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
440 PM MDT SUN APR 23 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH  
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE  
SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA.  
 
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PULSE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY  
ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS  
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
DESPITE AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND FORCING, A SUBSTANTIAL DRY  
LAYER BELOW 500 MB (AND LATER 600MB) WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. MAIN  
IMPACT OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS  
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/SREF DOES SHOW A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL  
MONDAY (MAINLY NORTH), BUT OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN  
PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS TONIGHT, AND WILL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE  
NIGHT. THIS INCREASED MIXING AND THE MODERATION IN AIR MASS WILL  
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY MILD LOWS IN THE 40S (POSSIBLY AROUND 50).  
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS  
SETS UP, BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AT  
LEAST IN THE LOWER 70S BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO MID 80S  
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.  
 
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY: CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE  
STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND A  
WEAKER LLJ ROUNDING THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE  
NORTH. POSITION OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE  
GRADIENT IN REGIONS OF OUR SOUTHWEST THAT HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR SUB  
20% RH, AND WITH VERY LITTLE WIND TO MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON IN  
THESE LOCATIONS WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE EVEN "ELEVATED" FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS UNLESS THE SEND LLJ SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH (CURRENT TRENDS  
DO NO FAVOR THIS). MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE IN TDS WITH  
MINIMAL DECREASE FROM THE WEST, SO CURRENT TRENDS KEEP LOWEST RH  
ABOVE CRITICAL CRITERIA EVEN IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
UPPER TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN SEVERAL PIECES MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED, SO NOT  
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. WILL GET A BRIEF RESPITE IN  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS  
TO IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A  
VERY BROAD SYSTEM WHICH WILL TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OUT OF THE  
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS IN SEVERAL PIECES. THE GFS DOES NOT  
KICK OUT THE MAIN UPPER LOW UNTIL SUNDAY, WHEN IT WILL BE QUITE  
WOUND UP AND MIGHT HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE FOR A  
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL BUT BY MID  
WEEK BE BELOW NORMAL AND BY LATE WEEK MUCH BELOW NORMAL. FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.  
PRIMARILY A LIGHT FREEZE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS AT THIS TIME,  
BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE TO A HARD FREEZE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT SUN APR 23 2017  
 
FOR KGLD AND KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30KTS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT  
02Z UNDER A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS. FROM 03Z-12Z GUSTY SOUTHERLY  
WINDS EXPECTED AT KGLD WHILE AT KMCK A SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 12KTS  
EXPECTED. FROM 13Z-19Z WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST, WEST  
THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS  
NEAR 30KTS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER 20Z WINDS  
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE  
FROM THE NORTHWEST (KMCK) TO NORTHEAST (KGLD) AT SPEEDS UNDER  
10KTS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DR  
LONG TERM...024  
AVIATION...99  
 
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