466  
FXUS63 KGLD 210000  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
500 PM MST MON NOV 20 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 500 PM MST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 5PM MST AND 6PM CST  
FOR DUNDY, YUMA, AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN KANSAS DUE TO VERY DRY AND  
BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT ARE PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS.  
 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING ACROSS  
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST  
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS  
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE  
WINDS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE BEING NOTED WITH SINGLE  
DIGIT RH VALUES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS  
TIME OF YEAR ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 25 DEGREES COOLER  
THAN TODAY, BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE  
30S. MODELS WERE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
OVER FARE EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT  
COMES THROUGH. HAVE, HOWEVER, KEPT THINGS DRY AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY  
PRECIPITATION IS LOW WITH POOR QPF CORRELATION BETWEEN MODELS AND  
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE COLUMN NEAR THE SURFACE  
REMAIN DRY WITH 50% OR LESS RH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. RETURN FLOW  
GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, AND GAVE SOME  
THOUGHT TO ADDING PATCHY FOG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.  
HOWEVER, SREF PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND SURFACE WIND DIRECTION  
UNFAVORABLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO  
LEFT IT OUT. OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWARD ACROSS  
THE ROCKIES AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOES TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE RIDGE  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT THE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS SO STRONGEST LIFT WILL STAY NORTH AND NO  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL DROP  
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, THEN GRADUALLY  
WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE  
RIDGE REBUILDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
FOR KGLD AND KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A  
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 12KTS AROUND 12Z-13Z TUESDAY. AS A  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO  
30KTS EXPECTED FROM 14Z-20Z. AFTER 21Z WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 12KTS  
FROM THE NORTH. HIGH CLOUDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL LOWER TO ABOUT  
4K-5K FEET BY MID TO LATE MORNING TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...99  
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART  
LONG TERM...024  
AVIATION...99  
 
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