176  
FXUS63 KGLD 241606  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1006 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
 
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ANY  
RESULTING SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SECONDARY MINOR  
CONCERN IS HOW HOT DOES IT GET ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A  
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO  
NORTH AMERICA. THE FLOW IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED OVER WESTERN NORTH  
AMERICA. AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE IS LEADING TO A STRONGER DIGGING  
UPPER SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT  
IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION. HOWEVER NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES  
RESIDE OVER AND NEAR TO THE AREA DUE TO EXTENSIVE PREVIOUS AND  
ONGOING CONVECTION.  
 
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE  
FROM YESTERDAY, EVEN AS THE EVENT WAS UNFOLDING, AND ONGOING  
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES THAT THE MODELS WILL NOT BE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT.  
 
THROUGH 06Z THE CAMS/HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOT PERFORMING WELL  
AT THIS TIME. THEY DO NOT HAVE THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH  
THAT ARE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THEY ALSO HAVE THE MCS TO  
OUR SOUTH IN THE WRONG PLACE. THEY HAVE IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION  
OF OUR AREA WHILE IT IS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  
 
TODAY/TONIGHT...NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT MUCH DUE TO ONGOING  
SEVERE OR NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS  
MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND MOVES SLOWLY  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. ALSO DIFFLUENCE AND MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT/GOOD BAROCLINIC  
ZONE IMPROVES/MOVES ACROSS THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STARTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE  
AREA. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE  
AREA DURING THE MORNING AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY JET MAX AFFECTS THE FAR EASTERN  
AREA IN THE EVENING. AS A RESULT PUT HIGHEST POPS INTO THE EVENING  
IN ADVANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT SINCE SURFACE AND  
PRECIPITATION DEPICTION ARE NOT DOING WELL RIGHT NOW.  
 
NOT SURE WHAT AFFECT CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ON ANY LATER  
SEVERE. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.  
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND REASSESS AS THE SHIFT GOES ON.  
 
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING AND DRIER AIR MASS LOOK TO MOVE IN.  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH DEPENDING ON HOW  
WIDESPREAD THE RAIN IS.  
 
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED DRY AS RIDGING ALONG STRENGTHENS  
OVER THE AREA. THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF MUCH HOTTER  
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
 
NOT MUCH TO LOOK AT STUFF. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET/DRY  
FOR PERIOD WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOW UP VERY LATE  
IN THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN HOT/MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018  
 
CHALLENGING FORECAST. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF  
TODAY, THOUGH STRONGER WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE INVOF ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT  
BOTH TERMINALS AT SOME POINT (PERHAPS MULTIPLE TIMES) THIS  
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA THIS  
EVENING (00-06Z MON), THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE MCK TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD  
OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EITHER TERMINAL THIS  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NW/WNW AT 15-20 KNOTS  
AOA SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL FROM SUNRISE ONWARD.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BULLER  
LONG TERM...BULLER  
AVIATION...VINCENT  
 
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