337
FXUS63 KGLD 252328
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 PM MST WED NOV 25 2009
DISCUSSION
222 PM MST WED NOV 25 2009
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CLIPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT
THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
TEMPERATURES...PRIMARILY HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET.
TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AS H5 RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. JET STREAK WILL REMAIN TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND WHILE AREA SHOULD BE NEAR FAVORABLE
LOCATION OF JET STREAK...THINK IT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A
CLOUD OR TWO AS AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY STABLE OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR...WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AFTERNOON TDS UPSTREAM DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES WITH AFTERNOON MIXING
SUGGEST HIGHER TDS MAY ONLY EXIST IN SHALLOW SFC LAYER WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT TDS NOT HOLDING TEMPS UP TONIGHT. THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOOKS REASONABLE AS I DO NOT WANT TO GO TOO COLD SINCE OVERALL
AIRMASS IS WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THANKSGIVING-THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER ANTICIPATED...ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES GET. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST H85 TEMPS WARM TO 10-12C ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THINK WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT
WARMUP.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
DURING THE PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WX AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS
STRONG H5 TROUGH/COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES ON THE MAGNITUDE OF TEMPS ALOFT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL
FAIRLY EASILY HIT THE 60S WITH A FEW 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE COME INTO A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD WITH A MORE
ELONGATED AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN
DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE KEEPING SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SEPARATE AND NOT PHASING THEM TOGETHER. THIS SOLUTION
GENERALLY SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND MEAN...BUT HAVE NOTICED 06Z CYCLE HAVING AN INCREASED NUMBER OF
MEMBERS CUTTING OFF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING.
WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE...NOTED SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
LEAVES ME WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS...EVEN IF AREA OF
CONCERN WOULD NOT REALLY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12Z IS ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AND WILL LEAN IN THIS
DIRECTION FOR THE FORECAST. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS A WETTER SOLUTION
THAN OTHER MODELS...THINK KEEPING NEAR AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION THE
WAY TO GO FOR NOW AS THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THE PAST
TWO DAYS.
WITH EXPECTED PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DAY TO DAY IN THE
EXTENDED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...RIDGING TAKING
OVER ON TUESDAY...AND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SNOW WITH BOTH FRONTAL
PASSAGES...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS PROBABILITY IS RATHER LOW.
JRM
AVIATION
428 PM MST WED NOV 25 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. GROUND TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z AND 15Z.
BLM
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
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