350  
FXUS63 KGLD 270900  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
300 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS EASTWARD.  
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A  
TROUGH/COLD FRONT, HELPING DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS  
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT  
WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. INSTABILITY  
WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. STORMS WILL MOVE OUT  
OF CENTRAL COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEASTERN  
COLORADO/ADJACENT AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE SOUTH AND  
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY,  
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.  
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO  
NEAR NORMAL... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE DRY DURING THE DAY THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN LOOKS QUITE LIMITED, LESS THAN 500 J/KG,  
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. DUE TO THE  
LIMITED INSTABILITY, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SAT MAY 27 2017  
 
THERE ARE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD. PER CURRENT GUIDANCE, TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE  
LEAST WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE BUT THERE ARE STILL CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS  
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION.  
 
COME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, CHANCES FOR COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
AND STORMS IS GREATER. YET, MODEL GUIDANCE ARE DIFFERING IN THEIR  
SOLUTIONS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SO KNOWING OR PINPOINTING WHAT  
WILL EXACTLY HAPPEN IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A STRONG  
SIGNAL THAT THE CWA WILL GET PRECIPITATION BUT KNOWING IF THERE WILL  
BE A SEVERE THREAT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE; ESPECIALLY WITH  
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS NEXT  
WEEK APPROACHES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LOCATIONS  
MAY REACH THE LOW 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
 
AT KGLD... THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. SOME  
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 12Z WITH INCREASING  
NORTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS  
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH ABOUT MID  
AFTERNOON.  
 
AT KMCK...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED  
VISIBILITY, BUT CEILINGS MAY ALSO LOWER TO MVFR. A COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL SATURDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS  
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A PERIOD OF  
LOWER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH  
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...024  
LONG TERM...CLT  
AVIATION...024  
 
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