058  
FXUS63 KGLD 220929  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
229 AM MST MON JAN 22 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST MON JAN 22 2018  
 
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS  
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS WINTER STORM CONTINUES A SLOW TRUDGE EAST.  
CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LIES OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...PUTTING THE  
CWA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN HIGH  
RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 MPH AT TIMES. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS BACK  
EDGE OF HEAVIEST PRECIP NOW NEARING HIGHWAY 25.  
 
WITH THE SLOW TREND EASTWARD WITH ALL ELEMENTS OF THIS  
STORM...HAVE CONTINUED BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ALL AREAS THRU  
FORECASTED TIME. HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF  
CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES DO NOT SHOW CONDITIONS ABATING...WILL HAVE  
TO EXTEND TIMING TO MATCH UP WITH EASTERN AREAS(17Z-18Z).  
 
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...DO EXPECT WINDS TO TAPER DOWN BUT  
SOME LOCALES WILL SEE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THRU 00Z TUESDAY.  
 
FOR TONIGHT ON THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
REGION BUT COLD...ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT HRS. WITH CURRENT SNOW  
COVER ON THE GROUND FROM THIS STORM...HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPS FOR  
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM AS DO NOT THINK MODELS HAVE COMPENSATED  
TEMPS FOR SNOW OVER AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST MON JAN 22 2018  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME. H5 RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS  
EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SHIFT OUT OF  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN SE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LESS AND LESS QPF  
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...AND LATEST RUNS NOW  
HAVE THIS SYSTEM COMING THRU DRY. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL HAVE  
H5 RIDGING RETURNING TO THE ROCKIES...PUTTING THE CWA UNDER NW  
FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO PUT TEMPS NEAR TO/JUST BELOW  
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCALES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2018  
 
FOR KGLD, LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z WITH  
NORTH WINDS OF NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 44 KNOT  
RANGE. FROM 13Z TO 17Z CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR DUE TO NORTHWEST  
WINDS OF NEAR 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 33 KNOTS CAUSING BLOWING  
SNOW TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITY. FROM 18Z TO 19Z CONDITIONS  
TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO VFR, WHICH LASTS UNTIL THE END OF THE  
PERIOD, AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO  
NEAR 30 KNOTS UNTIL 23Z. AT THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO  
NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.  
 
FOR KMCK, LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 13Z WITH NORTH WINDS  
OF NEAR 27 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 38 KNOTS. FROM 13Z TO 17Z IFR  
CONDITIONS AS NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 24 TO 29 KNOTS WITH  
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 39 KNOTS CONTINUE. FROM 17Z TO 18Z THE CONDITIONS  
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO VFR WHICH WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE END OF THE  
PERIOD. FROM 18Z TO 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 21 KNOTS WITH GUSTS  
TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE. AT 00Z THE WINDS WILL HAVE  
DECREASED TO NEAR 10 KNOT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING  
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.  
 
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-029.  
 
CO...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
COZ090>092.  
 
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING  
FOR NEZ079-080.  
 
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...JN  
AVIATION...BULLER  
 
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