335
FXUS64 KSHV 082040
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE DISTURBED (AND ENVIRONMENTALLY CONDUCIVE) ENOUGH TO
INSTIGATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
INCLUDING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE RISKS PREDOMINANTLY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, BUT A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS OF
3:15 PM, SPC HAS ISSUED DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCHES INTO THE
ARKLATEX ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 10 PM. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MAXIMUMS IN THE LOWER 90S/LOWER 70S.
/16/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
QUIETER WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE REINTRODUCED EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH, IN COMBINATION WITH RIDGING SHIFTING FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WILL MAINTAIN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE THROUGH MOST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS ARE STILL HANGING TOUGH ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF E TX/N LA/SRN AR, BUT ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH THESE LOW VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 23Z FROM PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX INTO
SE OK ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT, WITH THIS CONVECTION QUICKLY
SPREADING INTO NE TX/SW AR BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS FOR ALL BUT THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER 06Z, WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AS ITS REMNANTS PROGRESS ESE ACROSS N LA. VCTS
MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES FOR MLU, ALTHOUGH ITS
CONCEIVABLE THAT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
THROUGH MLU AND DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE.
ELSEWHERE, LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 05Z ACROSS
DEEP E TX/PORTIONS OF N LA, BUT ITS EXPANSION NWD MAY BE DELAYED
BY ANY MESOSCALE BNDRYS PRODUCED FROM THE EVENING CONVECTION.
IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP THOUGH AT LFK LATE TONIGHT, WITH ANY
REMAINING AREAS AFFECTED BY THE EARLIER CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SEE
LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 12Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR TO
CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING, ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY NOT
RETURN UNTIL THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OR BEYOND. S WINDS
9-13KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 90 67 83 / 40 30 50 0
MLU 71 90 65 81 / 30 20 60 0
DEQ 63 86 58 80 / 60 30 30 0
TXK 69 87 62 81 / 70 30 40 0
ELD 67 86 61 80 / 60 20 40 0
TYR 71 88 65 82 / 40 40 40 0
GGG 71 88 65 82 / 40 30 50 0
LFK 73 92 67 84 / 10 30 40 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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