300
FXUS64 KSHV 042036
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
SO FAR...ALL CONVECTION REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKS SOUTH INTO
MCCURTAIN COUNTY. CU FIELD IN OTHER AREAS YET TO SHOW SIGNS OF
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL DRIVE THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET MONDAY. MODELS THEN DISAGREE ON MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT...
WITH GFS THE OUTLIER...TAKING IT TO THE COAST. IF THIS HAPPENS...
DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE CWA ENDING RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT THINK THE FRONT WILL MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH...SO
HOLDING ON TO A CHANCE RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN THE RIDGE WILL
START TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AREA. ANY
CONVECTION FROM MID WEEK ON WILL BE ISOLATED AND OCCUR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
STILL HOT SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION SUNDAY...
BUT REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD MODERATE SOME. MOSTLY MID AND
UPPER 90S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...BUT PERHAPS NOT EVERYWHERE
DURING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BRING TSTMS
YIELDING SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS TSTMS AT TIMES. POPS ARE
50/50...BUT HARD TO SAY WHEN FOR EACH TERMINAL JUST YET. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HRS...RAINS WILL COME AND GO. VFR AND DRYING
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW TO START THE WEEK. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 95 73 93 70 / 20 50 30 30 20
MLU 75 96 72 92 70 / 30 50 40 40 20
DEQ 74 89 68 93 65 / 50 50 30 20 10
TXK 75 90 70 91 68 / 40 50 30 30 10
ELD 75 92 70 93 65 / 40 50 40 30 20
TYR 77 93 73 93 70 / 20 50 30 30 20
GGG 77 94 71 93 68 / 20 50 30 30 20
LFK 76 99 75 94 71 / 20 20 40 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
14/24
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