119  
FXUS64 KSHV 281624  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
RESTRUCTURE POPS FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH NEW GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE NEW HRRR AND NAM ARE SHOWING NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON  
OVER DEEP E TX BY LATE DAY. WE HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS THERE NOW AND  
THAT EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT EDGES  
INTO THE AREA. IT IS ONLY A 1017MB HIGH OVER OK BY DAYBREAK  
DRIVING ALL THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT.  
HOPEFULLY SOME MORE MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR ALL TONIGHT SO THE DAYS  
(TODAY INCLUDED) LOOK BETTER FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
NOTE WILL RERUN ZONE PRODUCTS AFTER LUNCH TO REMOVE LIKELY NE LA  
NOW AND CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING. I-30 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE QUIETER  
TONIGHT WITH MOST FOCUS ALONG I-20 GIVE OR TAKE. /24/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 721 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. LOOKS  
LIKE OUR NRN AREAS WILL SEE LESS COVERAGE TODAY DUE TO  
STABILIZATION, AND SOME OF OUR AREAS S OF I-20 MAY SEE MORE THAN  
WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY FCST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY. THIS SRN CONVECTION MAY ACT TO SQUASH ANY CHANCES FOR  
SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY, BUT IF SOME PEEKS OF SUN ARE ABLE TO  
GET THROUGH, THESE AREAS COULD RECOVER. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE  
OUT SHORTLY. /12/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
ONGOING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD -SHRA/-TSRA HAVE BEEN FOR THE MOST  
PART, AFFECTING KTXK MOST OF THE NIGHT, AND INTERMITTENTLY  
AFFECTING KGGG AND KTYR. A FEW ISOLATED -SHRA HAVE COMMENCED TO  
DEVELOP NEAR KSHV IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WHICH  
HAS VEERED WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL BUT KLFK /THOUGH THIS WIND  
SHIFT WILL BE BRIEF/. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED -SHRA/-TSRA/VCTS/VCSH  
WHERE APPROPRIATE WITH REGARD TO THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE  
A CONTINUAL WANING WITH THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS MORNING  
BUT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THE  
RESURGENCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
TRIED TO INSERT BEST TIMING OF WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AT  
EACH TAF SITE. OTHERWISE, LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE  
TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING. A FEW SITES MAY RETURN TO MVFR CIGS AFTER  
29/00Z. /29/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING  
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER OF TX/OK INTO CENTRAL AR. SWD  
EXPANSION OF SEVERE STORMS MAY PROVE DIFFICULT DUE TO STRONG CAP  
IN PLACE, BUT SOME EWD EXPANSION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS,  
HAVE EXTENDED SEVERE WATCH 289 TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SW AR  
COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z.  
 
FRONT ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX TO NEAR  
FAYETTEVILLE AR WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD TODAY, BRINGING MORE  
CONVECTION TO THE REGION BY THIS AFTN. THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION  
LIKELY TO BECOME OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE  
BY SUNRISE. PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW ALONG WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE  
COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP  
IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN. SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS  
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT  
TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. AS IT LOOKS NOW,  
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL,  
DAMAGING WINDS, OR EVEN AN ISOLD TORNADO.  
 
FRONT WILL STALL BY THIS EVENING, AS THE EMBEDDED TROF LIFTS NEWD  
AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WEAK BUT PERTURBED UPPER FLOW OVHD WILL  
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP  
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION  
THROUGH MONDAY. BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA  
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING POPS IN THE FCST FOR THE DURATION  
OF THE PD.  
 
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DURING THE  
WEEKEND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS DISAGREE  
SOMEWHAT AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE, SO  
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE ATTM. NEVERTHELESS, IT DOES  
APPEAR THAT OUR WET WORK WEEK WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY A WET WEEKEND.  
 
AS FOR TEMPS THIS WEEK, REMAINED CLOSE TO BLENDS. CLOUD  
COVER/CONVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPS MODERATED, SO EXPECT  
MUGGY DAYS WITH LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE OVERNIGHT OURS. /12/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 86 69 81 68 / 50 60 50 30  
MLU 89 70 81 67 / 50 60 60 30  
DEQ 82 64 84 61 / 20 20 10 10  
TXK 82 66 82 65 / 50 30 20 20  
ELD 84 67 80 65 / 50 60 40 20  
TYR 84 68 81 67 / 50 50 30 20  
GGG 84 67 80 66 / 50 60 40 20  
LFK 90 70 80 68 / 60 60 60 30  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
24/99  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page