068
FXUS64 KSHV 210323
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
923 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
..AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING
DISCUSSION
ISENTROPICALLY-GENERATED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ALL OF THE WEATHER REMAINS AN UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. AS
IT CONTINUES PUSHING EASTWARD...LOOK FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO
CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
FOR THE MOST PART...THE ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES /BASED UPON THE LOCAL DIURNAL CURVE/...AND
THE UPDATED NUMBERS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR YOUR PERUSAL. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OTHERWISE MADE AT THIS TIME.
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET. AN
UPDATED SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /21/
AVIATION
OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND
AT SHV. HAVE PUT SHRA IN AS PREVAILING WITH TEMPO GROUPS RESERVED
FOR LOWER VSBY AND LOWER CIGS WHICH ARENT CORRESPONDING WITH THE
SHOWERS. VFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED IFR CIGS AT
LFK THROUGH 21/15Z. AFTER 21/15Z...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 21/21Z AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE FOUR STATE
AREA. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH 21/12Z. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST.
/04/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 60 42 68 45 / 60 60 30 10 0
MLU 51 59 43 66 42 / 40 60 40 10 0
DEQ 52 61 41 65 45 / 40 40 30 10 0
TXK 50 60 44 66 44 / 50 50 30 10 0
ELD 49 60 42 65 43 / 30 50 40 10 0
TYR 54 60 45 69 49 / 60 50 20 10 0
GGG 53 60 43 69 47 / 60 50 20 10 0
LFK 51 61 41 70 48 / 70 60 20 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECASTER... D. BUTTS
AVIATION FORECASTER... STELLMAN
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