775  
FXUS64 KSHV 211230  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
730 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
FOR THE ARKLATEX, VFR EXPECTED WITH A SHOWING OF  
MODEL QPF SUGGESTING SOME VICINTY ACTIVITY FOR KSHV PRIMARILY, BUT  
AMENDMENTS MAY COME MID TO LATE DAY FOR A FEW SITES. CLIMB WINDS  
ARE SW 10KT OFF THE SFC AND BACK TO E/NE BY 8KFT KEEPING 10-20KT.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING PEAK  
DAYTIME HEATING AND GUSTY WINDS TOO. TS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON  
INCREASE TOMORROW AND EPICALLY FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER FL  
ATTM MOVES W ALONG THE GULF COAST. /24/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
EARLY THIS MORNING THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST  
OKLAHOMA, NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDEX VALUES FROM NEAR 105-109 DEGREES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE  
REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING AND REFORMING THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW  
PRESSURE AFFECT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE A PIECE OF THE  
PREVIOUS EAST COAST CUT OFF LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE  
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH A GRADUAL  
BUMPING UP IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS. FOR SATURDAY THE DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND THE RESULTING HEAT INDICES WILL  
REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES, THEREFORE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE  
EXTENDED. HOWEVER, PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF WORKING OR  
PLAYING OUTSIDE DUE TO THE VALUES REACHING NEAR 100 TO 105  
DEGREES. BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REFORM OVER THE  
SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL  
AMPLIFY SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AREA SOUTH  
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MERGING THE SHEAR AXIS AND REMNANTS  
OF THE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN THE MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH  
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THIS MERGER WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SHEAR  
AXIS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AND SOUTHEAST STATES UNTIL MID  
WEEK. FROM NEAR MID WEEK THROUGH THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK THE  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST AND  
AMPLIFY NORTH ENDING THE POSSIBLE WET PATTERN AND ALLOW FOR THE  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER NINETIES  
WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE  
CLIMBING FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AND WE MAY  
SEE THE HEAT ADVISORIES RETURN. /06/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 97 76 93 76 / 20 20 30 20  
MLU 97 75 92 75 / 20 20 30 20  
DEQ 96 73 95 74 / 10 10 10 10  
TXK 96 76 94 76 / 10 10 20 10  
ELD 96 74 94 75 / 20 20 30 20  
TYR 96 77 93 76 / 10 10 20 10  
GGG 96 77 93 76 / 20 20 20 10  
LFK 95 75 93 76 / 20 20 30 20  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-  
070>073.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-  
017>022.  
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-  
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.  
 

 
 

 
 
24/06  
 
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