552  
FXUS64 KSHV 200556  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1156 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 20/06Z TAFS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE  
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LINE OVER EAST TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA,  
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. BASED ON LATEST RADAR LOOPS, KTXK AND KTYR  
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED AT THE START OF  
THE PERIOD. KLFK AND KGGG HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED -RA, BUT LATEST  
RADAR LOOPS APPEAR TO INDICATE THE SHOWERS EXITING THOSE TAF SITES  
FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED  
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A MUCH MORE ROBUST  
COMPLEX BY 21/00Z. THIS COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST, BUT  
MAY STILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, NORTHEAST  
TEXAS, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE DURING  
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO  
THE VFR IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO  
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN  
SOMEWHAT GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD  
INCREASE BACK TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME  
HOURS.  
 
CN  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 947 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND A  
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING AROUND 20  
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THEREFORE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN  
EFFECT. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE  
WEST AS FRONT EASES EASTWARD. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT AHEAD AND  
EXTENDED POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ACROSS TOLEDO BEND INTO WEST  
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. /05/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 65 81 65 66 / 20 60 100 100  
MLU 65 84 67 74 / 10 30 40 100  
DEQ 64 74 51 52 / 60 90 100 100  
TXK 64 78 58 58 / 30 70 100 100  
ELD 64 81 63 64 / 20 40 100 100  
TYR 66 75 57 58 / 20 90 100 100  
GGG 64 78 62 62 / 20 60 100 100  
LFK 66 79 66 71 / 20 60 80 100  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-  
070>073.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071.  
 
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-  
017>022.  
 
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-  
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150.  
 

 
 

 
 
09/05  
 
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