543
FNUS72 KTAE 141454
FWSTAE
SPOT FORECAST FOR HWY 51 FIRE...FFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
954 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (850) 942-8833, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS HOWEVER WILL BE RATHER
HIGH, PEAKING NEAR 5,500 FEET, LEADING TO GOOD DISPERSIONS. RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 90 OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FIRE, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED SUPER FOG
CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED NEAR SUNRISE.
WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, BUT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FIRE SITE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
VERY STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, LIGHTNING, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
A TORNADO.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
LVORI...............2.
DISPERSION INDEX....28 INCREASING TO 45 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........25 25 26 26 26 31 31 31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............59 66 70 73 75 76 76 77
RH..............64 50 41 37 34 33 33 33
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE E
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 10 10 9 9 9 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.0 5.6 5.5 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 8 8 7 7 6
DISPERSION......28 28 44 44 44 46 46 46
LVORI...........3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 13 MPH.
LVORI...............4.
DISPERSION INDEX....10.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........61 61 61 63 63 63 47 47 47 69 69 69
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10
TEMP............74 70 65 63 61 59 59 58 57 58 58 59
RH..............40 47 58 65 72 78 80 87 90 87 90 90
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 8 9 10 13 14 17 18 18 18 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 8 10 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 10
DISPERSION......13 13 13 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 31
MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 32 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 31 MPH.
LVORI...............4.
DISPERSION INDEX....22 INCREASING TO 65 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 85 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 72 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........87 87 87 81 81 81 76 76 76 88 88 88
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 90 90 90 90 90 90
TEMP............59 59 61 64 68 71 74 75 76 75 73 71
RH..............90 93 90 87 78 71 64 62 62 64 71 79
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 8 10 12 14 15 15 15 14 14 13
20 FT WIND GUST.20 21 23 26 29 31 32 32 32 31 30 29
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.3 2.7 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 14 17 21 25 29 31 31 29 25 23
DISPERSION......22 22 22 65 65 65 85 85 85 72 72 72
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 3
FORECASTER...YOUNG
REQUESTED BY...PAT DEREN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2602754.0/TAE
.DELDT 02/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PATRICK.DEREN@FDACS.GOV
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