371
FNUS72 KTAE 152226
FWSTAE
SPOT FORECAST FOR TURKEY SCRATCH FIRE...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
626 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1900 EDT ON MARCH 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (850) 942-8833, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING. S TO SW
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SITE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR STORMS AT THE SITE IS AROUND 7 TO 10 AM,
POTENTIALLY LASTING TO AROUND NOON. STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH A VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS MOVING
IN AFTER IT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
MONDAY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH, THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXCELLENT
DUE TO THE WINDY TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................30 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH.
LVORI...............5.
DISPERSION INDEX....9 INCREASING TO 17 AFTER 3 AM.
TIME (EDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........43 43 47 47 47 79 79 79 79 79 79
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............74 72 70 69 68 67 68 68 67 67 68
RH..............66 76 81 84 90 97 93 93 97 97 97
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 15 16 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 18 18
DISPERSION......6 6 11 11 11 12 12 12 17 17 17
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
CWR.................80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 70 PERCENT LATE IN THE
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
DISPERSION INDEX....31 INCREASING TO 69.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........84 84 84 81 81 81 84 84 84 78 78 78
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............80 80 80 70 70 70 80 80 80 30 30 30
TEMP............67 68 68 67 68 70 70 68 65 63 61 60
RH..............100 97 97 100 100 97 93 90 87 87 81 69
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SW SW SW W NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 21 21 21 21 24 24 24 24 22 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW W W W W NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 25 25
DISPERSION......31 31 31 51 51 51 52 52 52 69 69 69
LVORI...........5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
LVORI...............2.
DISPERSION INDEX....78 DECREASING TO 12 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........45 45 45 21 21 21 25 25 25 49 49 49
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 55 52 49 46 44 43 42 41 40 38 37
RH..............67 61 59 58 60 60 57 57 57 57 59 61
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.22 21 18 15 15 13 10 10 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 23 22 21 21 18 17 16 16 15 15
DISPERSION......78 78 78 15 15 15 9 9 9 10 10 10
LVORI...........1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2
FORECASTER...MERRIFIELD
REQUESTED BY...LUCAS SCHAEFFER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2605861.0/TAE
.DELDT 03/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LUCAS.SCHAEFFER@FDACS.GOV
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