192
FXUS64 KSHV 100621
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
121 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
...NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH IT IS WELL EAST OF US, THE FLOW AROUND IT
WILL BRING US SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOWER RH VALUES. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS A RESULT.
- WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING COOL FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS FINALLY MADE LANDFALL THIS PAST EVENING OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS WELL EAST OF
US, THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT, DUE TO ISAIAS INLAND
PROXIMITY FORECAST TRACK, WE WILL SEE SOME ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. GUSTS COULD POSSIBLY BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. THESE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH FORECASTED AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO
35%. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AND SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WILDFIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED. SO, ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE
BETWEEN 10A AND 6P ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL RELAX ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN, AS UPPER RIDGING WILL PARK OVER THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE, EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO GRADUALLY RETURN BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S. ABOVE AVERAGE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH DAILY HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THERE
IS SOME HINT OF RAIN CHANCES RETURNING INTO PORTION OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE, COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, TO YIELD SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
BUT, IT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME OVERCOMING THE RIDGE. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME
BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG ANOTHER COOL
FRONT. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
FOR THE 10/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE EASTERLY WIND FIELD FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS SLACKENS, YET RETAINS A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPRESS THE
CU FIELD CYCLE. /16/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FROM 10 AM
UNTIL 6 PM, WHEN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND POTENTIALLY
GUSTING FROM THE NE AT 20 TO 30 MPH. ALSO, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE FALLING OFF TO THE LOWEST LEVELS FOR THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
CAUTION IS ADVISED AND REMEMBER TO CHECK WITH YOUR COUNTY OR
PARISH FOR BURN BAN INFORMATION. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY WEATHER.
HOWEVER, PLEASE REPORT ANY WILDFIRES TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 20 TO 35%, ANY WILDFIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAPID GROWTH
AND SPREADING. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 62 93 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 57 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 62 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 59 94 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 65 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 63 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 63 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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