082
FXUS64 KSHV 100611
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- A LITTLE MIXING HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX BETTER IN
CHECK, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO BUILD/LINGER WITH SOIL
TEMPERATURES EASING BACK UP OVER THE 80 DEGREE MARK THIS WEEK.
- THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PEAK LATE THIS WORK WEEK,
WITH MORE AREAS RUNNING HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 105 DEGREES.
SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD PLAN FOR NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUMP FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK EASING THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
UPPER RIDGING IS SETTING UP SHOP OVER SE TX FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES BUILDING TO INCLUDE MORE MID 90S. THE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH, BUT CAN MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH WIND.
TUESDAY DIDN'T SEE A LARGE TURN OUT IN THAT REGARD WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE WILL HAVE ENDURE MID TO LATE SUMMER HEAT IN OUR
SHORT TERM UNDER THIS BUILDING HEAT DOME. CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
INCLUDE A WARMING TREND ON SOIL TEMPERATURE IN THE ABSENCE OF WIDE
SPREAD RAINFALL. THE SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN MAKE IT INTO DEEP EAST
TX WITH SOME ISOLATED MID TO LATE DAY COVERAGE. GENERALLY SPARSE
IN AMOUNT AND OFTEN BRIEF FOR A LUCKY FEW SITES.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS ESSENTIALLY NESTING OVER SE TX ON THE SHORT
TERM MODELS WITH INCREASING NUMBERS OF PEAK HEAT INDICES CLIMBING
OVER THE 105 DEGREE MARK. WE WILL SEE POTENTIALLY SEVERAL
AFTERNOON HOURS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH HEAT ADVISORIES TO
END THE WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET BUMPED SW THIS WEEKEND WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS IS THE FIRST OF A FEW WEAK COLD
FRONTS, BUT EACH ONE WILL HAVE THE WAY PAVED BY THE PREVIOUS. SO
WE CAN EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN
THE DAYS TO COME THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL
THEN, THE HEAT BUILDS AND ADDITIONAL AREAS IN OUR FOUR- STATE AREA
WILL SEE THE ADVISORIES THIS WEEK AS OUR HIGHS EDGE FROM LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A FIXTURE FOR US KEEPING
THE GULF HUMIDITY WELL INLAND. NOT MUCH SEA BREEZE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE, BUT THE WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL HELP WITH WEAK REINFORCING
AIR MASSES OVER THE PLAINS. WE DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH
NORTHERLY WIND IN OUR FUTURE FOR THIS NEXT WEEK.
THE SPC DAY 3 HAS GOOD COVERAGE OF THEIR GENERAL RISK FOR US BY
THE WEEKEND WITH THAT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGING TOWARD I-20.
AND THE WPC EROS (EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS) DO SETTLE A
MARGINAL RISK BACK INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS WITH THESE WEAK COOL
FRONTS. THE AIR MASS ARE GOING TO BE MOVING EASTWARD MORE THAN
SOUTHWARD, BUT WILL POOL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CONVECTION WILL
FOCUS IN THE MID TO LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE CPC 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
HEAT, BUT AREAWIDE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH MID JUNE. SO
BETTER NEWS FOR THE DROUGHT MAY NOT COME SOON, BUT WE WILL ADD
SOME NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
REMNANT SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ALMOST TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
NE TX LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME REMAINING CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BUT ANY CEILINGS WOULD BE BRIEF NEAR 5KFT. WE SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF
RETURNING STRATUS OF THE MVFR VARIETY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM SE TX AND SW LA. THIS COULD
OVER SHOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ELD TERMINAL. ANY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER AND/OR LIFT BY
MID TO LATE MORNING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN ELEVATED CU FIELD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE LFK TERMINAL BUT POP
COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTH TO SSW WINDS TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25KTS, ESPECIALLY AT THE TYR AND
GGG TERMINALS BY MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 77 95 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 95 77 96 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 91 78 93 76 / 0 0 0 70
TXK 95 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 93 77 94 78 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 93 77 95 78 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 93 77 95 78 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 92 75 95 76 / 20 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...23
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