972
FXUS64 KSHV 091754 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY FOR NOW WITH A WARMING TREND
IN THE OFFERING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING
WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS
WHERE A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STALLED. SOME
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL, COULD SEE MORNING FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
NEAR DAYBREAK.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT WITH IT INTO THE ARKLATEX. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST
IN THE FORM OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NEAR THE I-30 CORRIDOR
NEAR MIDDAY, REACHING THE LAKES REGION OF DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR
SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY, AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS FROM MID-
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE TYPES OF MESOSCALE COMPLEXES ARE INHERENT
IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP. AT THIS TIME, THE ARKLATEX IS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FROM EITHER OF
THESE TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS NEAR 90. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CIGS REMAIN SLOW TO LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER INCLUDING
SHV, AS A RESIDUAL BNDRY FROM THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS BNDRY WILL DELAY CIGS FROM
LIFTING TOO QUICKLY. SCATTERED -SHRA HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF N LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER E TX, WITH THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY
AFFECTING MLU THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. HAVE
TEMPOED IN SHRA HERE WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS, WITH
THE REMAINING TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON/MUCH
OF TONIGHT. THE CU/STRATOCU FIELD SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
AROUND 00Z, ALTHOUGH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD AGAIN REDEVELOP OVER
N LA/SRN AR/EXTREME ERN TX, AND POSSIBLY SPREAD NW BY DAYBREAK.
HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SE AND
AFFECT EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIG ADVECTION THIS FAR NW.
HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION OF VCTS FOR TXK ATTM, AS
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO
THE REGION. THESE CIGS MAY LOWER INTO AREAS OF FG BY OR SHORTLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK OVER PORTIONS OF N LA, WITH THE LOW CIGS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY LIFT/RETURN TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS NW TO SE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LT/VRB WINDS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT MAY TAKE ON MORE OF A SE
COMPONENT OVER E TX LATE. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
05
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 85 64 78 / 10 60 70 20
MLU 64 86 64 78 / 10 30 70 20
DEQ 61 80 58 77 / 30 70 50 10
TXK 65 84 61 77 / 20 70 70 10
ELD 62 84 60 76 / 10 60 60 20
TYR 67 84 64 77 / 10 70 70 20
GGG 66 85 64 77 / 10 70 70 20
LFK 68 88 67 79 / 20 30 70 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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