101
FXUS64 KSHV 161232
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
732 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A POWERFUL, DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES,
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR, AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER FROM INCOMING DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, SATURDAY WILL SEE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ALONG
THE FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX TO
WESTERN AR. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE I-30 CORRIDOR SHOULD
COOL INTO THE 50S JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY THANKS TO THE FROPA
AND PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM DEEP
EAST TX UP INTO SOUTHWEST AR BY SUNRISE AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL IMMEDIATELY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT,
FULLY ENCOMPASSING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS AND RH'S OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WITH THE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AND THE PROLONGED DROUGHT, WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREADING WILL
OCCUR MUCH QUICKER. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD CONSIDER TEMPORARILY
POSTPONING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. THESE PRODUCTS MAY NEED EXTENDING
INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW INCOMING DATA TRENDS.
EVEN WITH THE FRONT LONG PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST, MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD DIP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH OTHER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. BUT HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
FOR THE 16/12Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
AROUND THE LUNCH HOURS TODAY. THOSE CIGS WILL GO AWAY, BUT WILL
KEEP SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
BUT GUSTS COULD STILL APPROACH 20 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 50 68 45 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 74 50 70 45 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 67 42 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 67 47 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 71 45 69 40 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 66 48 67 45 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 68 47 67 44 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 72 51 69 47 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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