299
FXUS64 KSHV 221711
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1111 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- A COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- WINDS WILL BE CALMER ON MONDAY, REDUCING THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE SHOWERS
RETURN TO OUR EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST HAS THE ARK-LA-TX FIRMLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MOST SITES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S, WITH FAR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CALMER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, WHICH WILL LOWER
THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD SOMEWHAT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY WIND
IS ENOUGH FOR FIRE SPREAD AND THE EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS CAN CATCH
FIRE VERY QUICKLY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. 10 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER
INTENSITIES FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR TUESDAY WILL LIKELY COME DURING THE DAY SHIFT
TOMORROW.
WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHIFT ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME GULF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 40-50%
RANGE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL THE REGION
GETS A WETTING RAIN. THE SOONEST RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE ON THURSDAY
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST ON THURSDAY THAT
WOULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE RAIN WON'T SO
MUCH MORE THAN COOLING THE REGION DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE NBM IS TRYING TO CATCH SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
HOWEVER, AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST TODAY DUE TO GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THEREFORE,
RELAYING INFORMATION RELATED TO WILDFIRE ACTIVITY IS ENCOURAGED.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 33 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 57 31 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 53 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 56 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 55 27 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 58 32 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 60 33 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...05
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