103
FXUS64 KSHV 221740
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1240 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- A COOL FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND POSSIBLY PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM EARLIER TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. ANY CONVECTION
THAT WILL BE ABLE TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WILL BE ALONG A WEAK EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING ON LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING THAT CAN BE GENERATED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH THE ABILITY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FROM EARLIER
STORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AS CONVECTION MOVES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MISSISSIPPI INTO
TENNESSEE.
LOW-LEVEL JET TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN RATES TO INCREASE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.
WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE BOUNDARY, COULD SEE
TRAINING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THUS,A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX DUE TO THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BEGIN TO
BUILD EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED RIDGING, HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH
DAY. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES THIS PERIOD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT ACTED AS THE FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING'S THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL PRESENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SPARK REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT SITES
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 CAN EXPECT AT LEAST VCTS FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO THE LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT
OCCASIONALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY FALLING
TO IFR/LIFR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
INITIATE ALONG THIS SAME BOUNDARY TOMORROW, BUT THAT IS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO A FLASH
FLOOD RISK. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 92 77 93 / 60 20 0 0
MLU 76 92 76 93 / 60 40 20 20
DEQ 72 87 72 89 / 70 60 20 30
TXK 74 91 75 93 / 80 40 20 20
ELD 73 89 73 91 / 70 40 20 30
TYR 77 93 77 94 / 50 10 0 0
GGG 76 93 77 93 / 60 10 0 0
LFK 76 95 76 95 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ059>061-070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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