227
FXUS64 KSHV 311631
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR
RESIDUAL LOW-CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THESE AREAS. CLOUDS FORECAST
TO SCATTER BY MID-AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL APPROACH THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK, NO
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /05/
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SEVERE CONVECTION HAS REALLY BLOSSOMED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO
ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR A DKR, TO N OF OCH, TO F17, TO SE OF SHV/MNE,
TO NEAR ELD AS OF 0245Z. THE AIR MASS SE OF THE FRONT REMAINS
QUITE UNSTABLE, WITH 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHERE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS INCREASED ALONG THE BASE OF
SPLIT UPPER JET BENEATH UPPER TROUGHING TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS DEEPER/SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE OUT OF
THE REGION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SFC-H850 FRONT UNTIL 13-14Z
BEFORE FINALLY ENDING. WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM BACK SVR WATCH #83 AS
THE STORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE, WITH NOTICEABLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE FORM OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AND
DIMINISHING CIGS TODAY, WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
SOME LINGERING STRATOCU LOOKS TO PERSIST EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS E TX/N LA ALONG/S OF I-20, BEFORE SFC RIDGING EASES FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER MORE E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THEN
SSE AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THUS RETURNING LOWER CU CIGS BACK N
ACROSS E TX/N LA AS WELL AS MUCH WARMER TEMPS AS WELL AS GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. STILL THOUGH, WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION
SHOULD YIELD MUCH WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS READINGS CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S.
15
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SW ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND FOUR STATE REGION THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A PACIFIC COOL FRONT REMAINS PROGGED
TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS S INTO OK WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER NW AR INTO SE OK AND N
TX. A SSWRLY LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH EVEN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE OK/WRN AR. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY DEEP, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE EXTENT OF SFC BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PROGGED. THIS BNDRY WILL EVENTUALLY FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY AS LARGE SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT SETTLES INTO THE DESERT SW INTO NRN
BAJA/NRN OLD MX. WHILE SVR CONVECTION CERTAINLY REMAINS PLAUSIBLE,
THE EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WILL HAVE TO BE BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF
ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW, AS A POTENTIALLY MESSY SETUP
APPEARS IN THE OFFING UNDER THE DEEP SW FLOW SUCH THAT TRAINING OF
STORMS MAY INTERFERE WITH THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT, BUT ALSO AID
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DISCREPANCIES ABOUND AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS WITH RESPECT
TO WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL RESIDE THROUGH LATE WEEK,
WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING THAT DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL
REINFORCE IT S ENOUGH INTO NE TX TO ALONG THE AR/LA LINE, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY LIFTING IT BACK N INTO SE OK/WRN AR. MEANWHILE, THE GFS
MAINTAINS THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE NW ZONES OR JUST NW OF THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY
ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. ATTM, WIDESPREAD
QPF'S OF 4-8+ INCHES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR A PROLONGED FLOOD
WATCH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION, SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO OCCUR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ALONG/E OF THE MS VALLEY, ALLOWING
FOR MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SETTLE S INTO THE REGION FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
FOR THE 31/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AFTER LINGERING MVFR CLOUD DECKS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND THIN OUT BY 01/00Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 5-10
KTS. WILL WANE AFTER 01/03Z BEFORE GAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
BY 01/12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 54 84 71 / 10 0 0 10
MLU 76 52 81 71 / 10 0 0 10
DEQ 73 45 79 65 / 10 0 0 50
TXK 75 51 83 70 / 10 0 0 30
ELD 75 47 80 67 / 10 0 0 10
TYR 74 56 84 71 / 10 0 0 20
GGG 75 53 83 69 / 10 0 0 10
LFK 79 59 83 70 / 10 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16
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