586
FXUS64 KSHV 192016
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
316 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
- A FLOODING THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AN ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, AS A SHIFT IN OUR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. UPPER
RIDGING AS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO WESTERN TEXAS. AS
RESULT, WE HAVE TRANSITION TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN,
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A POTENT SHORT-WAVE MOVED ALONG THE
FLOW THIS MORNING, PRODUCING A MCS. AHEAD OF THAT MCS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG-WAVE
TROUGH. THAT MCS PUSHED MOVED ALONG THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH,
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REGION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH 7
PM THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH A FEW WARNINGS, AS SOME LOCATIONS
WERE REPORTING 2" HOURLY RAINFALL RATES. EARLIER PROGS HAD MORE
WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST CONVECTION DOWN TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR, BUT
THAT DIDN'T QUITE MATERIALIZE. EVEN SO, WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
WATCH IN PLACE FOR CONTINUITY, AND BECAUSE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WATCH THIS MORNING. ALSO, WITH ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE STILL LINGERING BACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE, GENERALLY FOR ALL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF I-20. WE HAVE SEEN HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACH THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD WITHIN THE ADVISORY TODAY, BUT
CONVECTION IS STARING TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES AND DROP HEAT INDICES.
THE OTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS WILL IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD,
ALONG WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINALL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION SATURDAY. ALSO, SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. MODELS ARE
TRENDING DRIER ON SUNDAY, BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN, AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
AND SHIFT NORTH OF I-20 INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE THE
THE LACK OF RAIN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE SW CONUS BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND RETURNING
RAIN CHANCES. DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE COULD SEE FLOODING CONCERNS GOING FORWARD.
/20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF UPDATE, THE CURRENT ROUND OF -TSRA/VCTS IS
PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AIRSPACE WITH MVFR CIGS,
EXITING THE AREA AROUND 20/00Z. IFR CIGS RETURN BY 20/06Z, WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA/VCSH IS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 20/09Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE. VFR RETURNS ELSEWHERE AFTER 20/15Z WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY.
/20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 75 89 76 / 80 60 50 20
MLU 89 75 89 76 / 70 60 50 30
DEQ 84 71 87 73 / 70 30 50 20
TXK 87 74 90 75 / 90 50 50 20
ELD 85 73 87 73 / 90 70 50 20
TYR 90 75 90 76 / 70 70 40 20
GGG 90 75 90 76 / 80 70 50 20
LFK 94 77 92 77 / 50 50 40 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ059-070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
021.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ017>020-022.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-150-151.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ149-152-153-
165>167.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16
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