240
FXUS64 KSHV 221145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A
CONCERN.
- ALSO, AN ISOLATED STRONG THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MOST THE FORECAST AREA SAW SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ZONES, ALONG WITH
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ZONES AT THIS HOUR. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF THE REGION. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT SOME WRAP AROUND
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TODAY, AS
THE FRONT AND SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, BUT WITH 1.5" PWAT'S IN PLACE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SO, DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THOSE AREAS, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PREVIOUS
MENTION AREAS SUBJECT TO THE WRAP AROUND CONVECTION. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER POTENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. WITH SATURATED SOILS IN PLACE FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN.
STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK, A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN DAILY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AND A CONTINUED ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZE
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR THE 22/12Z TAF UPDATE, ONGOING MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 22/18Z WITH LINGERING, STAGNANT AIR NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. ONGOING -RA/TSRA
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AIRSPACE WILL TAPER OFF BY 22/15Z
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION AND -SHRA/VCTS STARTS WITH THE
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 22/18Z THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE WINDS THAT DO RETURN (OUTSIDE OF TSRA
GUSTS) WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLIES NEAR 5-10 KTS THROUGH 23/00Z.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
ALSO, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 68 85 68 / 30 20 60 70
MLU 85 68 86 68 / 30 20 60 80
DEQ 81 62 82 64 / 40 20 70 50
TXK 83 65 85 67 / 40 20 60 60
ELD 83 64 85 65 / 40 20 70 70
TYR 84 68 84 67 / 20 20 70 50
GGG 84 68 85 67 / 20 20 70 60
LFK 87 69 85 68 / 20 20 70 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16
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