006
FXUS64 KSHV 151142
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
- A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY, BRINGING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR.
- VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE ARK-LA-TX THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL MERGE BACK WITH THE GREATER TROUGH AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 60S
FOR SOME. AREAS OF CENTRAL LA COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHARP DIP IN TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS AND DRY
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS FRONT. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
COULD EASILY GUST ABOVE 30 MPH ON FRIDAY WITH RH'S DIPPING INTO
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMPOUND ON AN ALREADY DIRE DROUGHT
SITUATION IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITH
THE LACK OF CONSISTENT WETTING RAINFALL AND ARE PRONE TO CATCHING
FIRE FROM ANY SORT OF SPARK. THE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE
THESE SPARKING FIRES SPREAD MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND BE HARDER TO
CONTAIN. MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS DUE TO
THE ONGOING DROUGHT, BUT INCREASED CAUTION MUST BE TAKEN TO
PREVENT SPARKING WILDFIRES AND REPORT ANY THAT BEGIN QUICKLY TO
PROPER AUTHORITIES. AS SUCH, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WATCH MERELY OUTLINES THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREADING THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ON
FRIDAY AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH A FUTURE
FORECAST.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETS
UP ANOTHER WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FOR THE 15/12Z TAF UPDATE, ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS ARE
FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRSPACE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 5-7 KTS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINS TO OCCUR BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20
KTS. /16/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA FIRE DISTRICTS ON FRIDAY,
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY, DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY BREEZY, MAINTAINING SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TOGETHER WITH CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS, THESE CONDITIONS MERIT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
AREA FIRE DISTRICTS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 65 71 50 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 93 65 77 49 / 0 0 10 0
DEQ 91 53 67 42 / 0 10 10 0
TXK 91 60 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 93 60 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 87 60 67 48 / 0 20 0 0
GGG 89 59 69 47 / 0 20 0 0
LFK 90 64 74 50 / 0 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR OKZ077.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
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