098
FXUS64 KSHV 161106
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN, LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF STORM
COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH LATELY.
- UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
POPS BECOMING NIL.
- UPSTREAM RIDGING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF (IF NOT ALL) OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING FOR THE LATER HALF OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF AN ACTIVE EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH WETTER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST WEEK PLUS IS ABOUT TO CHANGE IN
A BIG WAY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
BUT BEFORE WE GET THERE, WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH PWAT AND UPPER
FORCING TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES. MUCH OF THAT
UPPER FORCING WILL BE ABSENT FOR FRIDAY BUT HIGH RES PROGS ARE
HINTING AT VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
OUR REGION SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE WILL MATERIALIZE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AND EXPAND NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE PINEY WOODS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, UPPER RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE MIGRATING
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, THE CLOSER THE CENTER OF THIS
RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS OUR REGION, TEMPERATURES HAVE NO RECOURSE
OTHER THAN TO RESPOND IN AN UPWARD DIRECTION. NBM MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND AND APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND WE CAN'T ARGUE
WITH THAT GIVEN THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS HERE TO
STAY, PERHAPS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH SO WE HOPE EVERYONE HAS
ENJOYED THE PLENTIFUL JULY RAINFALL WHILE IT HAS LASTED BECAUSE WE
COULD EASILY GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH WITHOUT MUCH IF
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AFTER TODAY.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOR THE 16/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING MUCH OF OUR
AIRSPACE. THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, STILL WATCHING FOR SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EAST TX TERMINALS AND
POSSIBLY KSHV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANY LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF CONVECTION
AT ANY TERMINAL SITES BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE NEXT TAF CYCLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH A MORE S/SW COMPONENT DURING THE DAY AS
SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS IS NOT LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 75 93 76 / 20 20 20 10
MLU 94 76 96 76 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 90 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 10
TXK 92 74 94 75 / 20 20 20 10
ELD 92 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 91 74 92 76 / 30 20 20 10
GGG 92 74 93 75 / 20 20 20 10
LFK 92 73 93 74 / 20 20 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19
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