808
FXUS64 KSHV 262317
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
- WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OF CONCERN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND GROWING RAINFALL DEFICIT
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF TO RAIN STARVED SOILS
UNTIL WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
UPPER RIDGING, REINFORCED BY A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, CONTINUES TO KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. THESE DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH
ONGOING SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION, NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN
TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS WE MOVE INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED, AS THE OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN THAT HAS KEPT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL
START TO ERODE. HOWEVER, WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING STILL IN PLACE,
ALONG WITH CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION, DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. WE ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
MID 80S, ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM NEW
MEXICO. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FLOW OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED, TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO REDUCED DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT MORE RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN BY MONDAY, AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
FOR THE 27/00Z TAF UPDATE...BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. BKN TO FEW AT
250 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SOME
OVC TO BKN AT 250 AROUND 27/06Z AND THEN BKN250 TO ROUND OUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE I DON'T HAVE MENTION OF IT, THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL THAT SOME LOWER CIGS MOVE IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BUT IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. /33/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 TO 35%. THEREFORE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT OF
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 53 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 57 82 57 84 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 52 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 82 55 84 / 0 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33
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