109
FXUS64 KSHV 022313
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
613 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN ON THE MARGINS FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR TO NE OVER THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS WHILE WEAK EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST, SUPPORTING LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT HEAT
INDICES WILL STILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO & TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY. DESPITE THIS, RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, AS AN ACTIVE EASTERLY WAVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. IN
FACT, ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE,
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FORMING IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY, GENERALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL INCLUDE ALL OF EAST
TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA, MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA, AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, THE MESOSCALE FEATURES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE A BIT LOWER
TODAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START AN EASTWARD SHIFT ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES.
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. A MORE BROAD
WEAKER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE, WHICH WILL ALLOW DAILY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ISN'T EXPECTED, THE ENVIRONMENT COULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A MORE DEFINED RIDGE WILL FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE SE CONUS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE PATTERN. THIS
WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES, IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID
ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE CONTINUE EXERCISE HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALSO REMEMBER, WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FOR THE 03/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL FOR
ALL OUR TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON RADAR, SO I HAVE MENTION OF VCTS FOR KTYR, KGGG, AND
KLFK THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. STILL SEEING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SCT TO FEW CU FIELD AROUND 5K FEET FOR MOST TERMINALS,
EXPECTING THIS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS START TO DIE
OFF. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH, THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT
WE ARE ANTICIPATING WILL BE FOR KLFK WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR/IFR TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, SPOTTER
REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 92 77 93 / 20 20 0 30
MLU 76 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 73 91 73 92 / 10 20 0 30
TXK 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 30
ELD 75 93 75 93 / 0 10 0 30
TYR 76 94 78 95 / 20 20 10 20
GGG 76 93 77 95 / 20 20 10 20
LFK 75 94 76 95 / 20 20 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...26
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