975
FXUS64 KSHV 270007
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
707 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO
THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS JOG TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
TO THE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BASED ON THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXPAND THE ONGOING
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WITH ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
PARISHES IN NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WILL
HOLD OFF ON ENDING THE WATCH EARLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DUE TO INCREASED RAINFALL AND CLOUD-COVER.
A CHAOTIC ATMOSPHERE TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION SLOWLY WANING AND MULTI-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS PERSISTING
AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. /05/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO EJECT NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER-RIDGE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 90S BY THURSDAY. ACCORDINGLY, WITH INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME LIMITED AND CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE SHEAR AXIS OVERHEAD. VFR/MVFR NOW WILL
SEE THE IFR SETTING BACK IN LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WITH
DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOWING THINGS START TO LOOSEN UP EARLIER TMRW
WITH VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTN AS THE RAIN AREAS PUSH OUT OF THE
REGION. COVERAGE WILL FURTHER DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY WITH ONE LAST
PUSH PERHAPS BEFORE THE HOT&DRY CONDITIONS RESUME NEXT WEEK. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 85 74 88 / 50 60 40 60
MLU 71 86 73 87 / 50 60 40 60
DEQ 69 84 69 88 / 30 50 20 30
TXK 72 86 72 90 / 30 50 30 50
ELD 69 83 70 87 / 50 60 30 50
TYR 72 85 73 89 / 30 50 20 40
GGG 71 84 72 88 / 40 50 30 50
LFK 71 82 72 86 / 50 70 30 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
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