390
FXUS64 KSHV 011134
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE OUR ANNUAL
EASTER "COOL SNAP" RESULTS IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
SPILLING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRATOCU CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SE TX AND BEGUN TO SHIFT N INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP E
TX, WITH ADDITIONAL CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NW
TX ALSO SPILLING SE INTO THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL LOW
STRATUS CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER E OVER S AND CNTRL LA AND
SPREAD N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THESE CIGS SHOULD TAKE A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING TO LIFT,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP E AND E TX INTO N LA, ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING THETA-E RIDGING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THESE AREAS, WITH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY SUNSET. SHOULD AGAIN SEE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME READINGS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT MOSTLY SHY
OF RECORD TERRITORY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OBSERVED VIA THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE SRN CA COAST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE E THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ENTERING THE SRN ROCKIES BY
EARLY EVENING. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IN VC OF THE W TX DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR LINE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN
OK, WITH THE CONVECTION BACKBUILDING S DURING THE EVENING ALONG
THE STRENGTHENING SRLY LLJ AXIS AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES E ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE REMAINED IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING THIS CONVECTION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
IT ENTERS SE OK/NE TX/SW AR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, WITH A WEAKENING
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS
THE PRIMARY FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NNE INTO
CNTRL AR AND THE MID MS VALLEY. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING, BUT DID TRIM BACK
POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE REDUCED FORCING WITH
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF
DECAYING CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER MEAGER, ALTHOUGH THE
NBM REMAINS VERY BULLISH IN MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NW
ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VIRTUALLY NO FORCING ALOFT OTHER THAN
SOME WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS
ALONG WEAK THETA-E RIDGING. THUS, HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THIS AREA, ALTHOUGH THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SW
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SHARPER TROUGHING ALOFT THAT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN FACT, A
MORE NOTABLE PERTURBATION IN THE SW FLOW IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD INVIGORATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM WCNTRL AND N TX INTO CNTRL OK, ALONG AN
INTENSIFYING 40-50KT SWRLY LLJ, AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE REINFORCED SE INTO THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS, THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE BNDRY LYR STABILIZATION.
HOWEVER, STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AS
IT SLIDES SE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A NON-ZERO
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST SATURDAY AS SOME SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP
WITH INSOLATION FROM PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA,
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY THAN THE THURSDAY SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH TOTALS HERE
WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY EASE THE ONGOING SEVERE/EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRYNESS LOOKS TO DEVELOP
IN WAKE OF THE EASTER COLD FROPA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOL AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RH'S ARE EXPECTED EASTER SUNDAY, AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS SE INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH REGION. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BY MID AND LATE WEEK.
WITH THE GULF REMAINING SHUT OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK,
DRY CONDITIONS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION EVENTUALLY
RETURNS.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR THE 01/12Z TAF UPDATE...SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS OUT THERE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS BRINGING A MIXTURE OF
MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. THINGS SHOULD START
TO IMPROVE SOME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH VFR RETURNING FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY AROUND 11/15Z-11/17Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER CLOUDS
FILLING BACK INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY, WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
KTS. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 68 81 67 / 20 20 60 10
MLU 88 68 85 67 / 10 10 50 10
DEQ 85 64 80 64 / 10 60 80 20
TXK 88 68 82 68 / 20 40 70 20
ELD 86 65 81 65 / 10 10 50 10
TYR 86 67 80 68 / 20 50 80 10
GGG 85 67 80 67 / 20 40 80 10
LFK 85 68 80 67 / 30 20 60 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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