075
FXUS64 KSHV 111108
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EVENING. HEAT IN
THE MIDDLE 90S IS EXPECTED AGAIN AHEAD OF THESE STORMS.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
- A RETURN TO QUIETER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN, AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF
THE ADVERTISED PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AHEAD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION.
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ORIENTED AROUND A BROAD CLOSED HIGH OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE MIDWEST WILL BECOME FURTHER TILTED BY STEERING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE, BECOMING SOMEWHAT LATITUDINAL BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHILE IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS
TROUGH'S AMPLITUDE WILL REACH AS FAR AS ARKANSAS, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS LATE TODAY.
BY LATE MORNING, WIDESPREAD CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE WELL
UNDERWAY, AS SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION PUSHES NORTH INTO THE
TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS LOOK TO ADVANCE
AS FAR NORTH AS THE US-84 CORRIDOR BEFORE WEAKENING. MEANWHILE, A
WAVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST, DRIVEN BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, WILL SWEEP SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS, REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING AND
REACHING THE I-30 CORRIDOR NEAR SUNSET AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS I-
20 OVERNIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUSTAINING AREAWIDE CHANCES FOR
FURTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ITS EFFECT ON ARKLATEX WEATHER REMAINS A
MATTER OF UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT AS OF THIS WRITING,
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LOW LOOKS TO BROADEN AND OPEN UP BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, ULTIMATELY GETTING ABSORBED INTO A TRANSITIONAL
PATTERN ALOFT TAKING THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY A NEW AREA OF RIDGING CENTERED
OVER WESTERN TEXAS. AS THE LOW LOSES ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE ARKLATEX MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH TRENDS
INDICATING A DRIER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH TO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND WILL REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
FOR THE 11/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS NEAR
KLFK AROUND DAYBREAK WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BE EVEN MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH SO HAVE HELD ON TO
JUST SCT COVERAGE AROUND 2KFT ELSEWHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER INTO A
ROBUST CU FIELD BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IN OUR SOUTHERN AIRSPACE. THEREFORE,
HAVE ADDED MENTION OF VCTS AT KLFK THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS AROUND 12/06Z SO HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCTS AT KELD/KTXK
LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, WILL MAINTAIN S/SW WINDS AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS
INVOF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY
REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 77 92 74 / 10 20 60 70
MLU 96 77 93 74 / 10 40 70 70
DEQ 95 74 91 71 / 0 50 40 40
TXK 96 76 93 73 / 0 40 50 60
ELD 95 75 90 71 / 0 50 60 60
TYR 96 78 94 75 / 0 10 40 50
GGG 95 77 93 74 / 10 10 50 60
LFK 94 76 93 75 / 30 10 40 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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