174
FXUS64 KSHV 270710
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AS A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT
LOOMS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
- POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
PLUMMETING WITH SUB-FREEZING LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS LARGELY HELD IN THE 40S BEFORE MODERATING BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
AS EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES SURGED TO BREAK SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS ON
FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SERVE
TODAY WITH ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO PUSH NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN IN MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWER TO ERODE AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY SO THIS WILL LIKELY SHUNT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE LIKELIHOOD OF RECORD-BREAKING
HIGHS APPEARS LESS LIKELY TODAY BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED IF
CLOUDS MANAGE TO SCATTER OUT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
MOVING AHEAD TO SUNDAY, THE LONG-AWAITED PATTERN SHIFT WILL COME
INTO FOCUS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND EJECT
OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS, PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE SE
INTO OUR REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ALL OF THE CONVECTION EXITS
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BRING A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES
WITH A 30-35 DEGREE DROP OFF IN HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO THOSE FROM THIS WEEKEND. SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL FOLLOW
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
BE COMMON AREAWIDE. SHIFTING HIGH PRESSURE BY WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO OPEN THE NEW YEAR ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK ON FRIDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE RATHER
LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD BUILD INTO ALL TAFS SITES, STARTING AROUND 1 AM AT LFK,
AROUND 4 AM ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR, AND AROUND 6 AM AT TXK AND ELD.
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD ONLY TAKE A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT TO LOWER TO
IFR TO LIFR LEVELS WITH SOME LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH DENSE FOG IS GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED. IT IS LIKELY THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS WAS THE CASE IN MOST
AREAS YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY NOON
AND THEN WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY 2 TO 3 PM IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SURFACE WINDS OF 4 TO 8 MPH FROM THE
SSW TONIGHT AND THEN PICK UP FROM THIS DIRECTION IN THE MIDDAY TO
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL AREAS BEFORE TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH
MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
/50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 80 65 81 39 / 0 0 10 60
MLU 78 63 79 41 / 0 0 0 70
DEQ 77 61 74 29 / 0 0 30 30
TXK 80 64 79 35 / 0 0 20 50
ELD 76 61 76 34 / 0 0 10 70
TYR 80 65 79 36 / 0 0 10 40
GGG 80 63 80 36 / 0 0 10 60
LFK 79 63 80 39 / 0 0 10 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...50
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