612
FXUS64 KSHV 021925
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
225 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND THICKENING POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEKEND, BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES MONDAY, AS
WELL AS ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF A
WEAK COOL FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE AR INTO EXTREME NW LA INTO E
AND ECNTRL TX, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SFC THETA-E PLACES THE MORE
DISCERNIBLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WELL N OF THE FRONT, ACROSS SRN
AND SE OK INTO NCNTRL AR. STILL SEEING SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER E
TX/EXTREME SW AR, WITH PW'S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES STILL RESULTING
IN THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1.00 INCHES/HOUR MEASURED FROM
SEVERAL ASOS/RAWS/CWOP AUTOMATED GAUGES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE,
STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING SE OF THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE
ELEVATED CIGS HAVE RESULTED IN MODERATE SBCAPE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SAM RAYBURN/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY INTO NCNTRL LA,
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION HAVING RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER THESE AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OUTFLOW
DRIVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG/N OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT HELP TO
ENHANCE ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK
OF APPRECIABLE DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THIS WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE, WHICH IS AWAY (AND SE) FROM THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH WHICH
HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT STORM TOTALS SINCE THURSDAY, HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NE TX/MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK, ALTHOUGH
LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HERE THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THIS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY SHOULD MAKE A LITTLE BETTER SWD MOVEMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ONCE
MIXING CEASES, WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE NNE EVEN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS THE POST-FRONTAL LOW STRATUS FORMS AND SHIFTS S THROUGH
THE AREA BY/PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED -SHRA REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER E TX INTO SE OK/SW AR INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS LINGER ALOFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW OVER FAR W TX NEAR ELP,
THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY INTO CNTRL/NE OK INTO NRN AR. IN FACT, THE
REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK CUT OFF LOW ARE PROGGED TO DRIFT NE ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW
AR. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED
TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE SW GULF THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN ATTENDANT
INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW CENTER EXPECTED TO
COME ASHORE THE SE LA COAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, DRIFTING INLAND
NNW INTO ADJACENT SRN MS. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS
IT SPREADS NW ACROSS N LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION, THE FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVER THIS AREA IN THE LAST 24 HRS AND THE MOSTLY
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOOD
THREAT. THE NBM DID HIGHLIGHT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER A
LARGE PART OF LOWER E TX/N LA SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE
REDUCED FORCING ON THE NW (SUBSIDENT) SIDE OF THE H850-700 LOW
OVER SE LA, LACK OF APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY, AND VARIOUS HI-RES
AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONSENSUS ON A DRIER SOLUTION, HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK POPS/QPF TO LOW CHANCE FOR THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WILL LINGER ACROSS NE TX/SRN AR
AND IN VC OF N LA SUNDAY, A DEEPER WEDGE OF DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO MIX S THROUGH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, WITH ANY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM N TO S THROUGH THE
DAY. AGAIN TAPERED POPS LOWER THAN THE NBM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NW FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION UPPER RIDGING.
SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK EVEN WITH
THE INCREASED INSOLATION, BUT THE RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
NEARING/EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR MID AND LATE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE CENTER BEGINS TO SHIFT E THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AS WELL.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, OUR TX SITES ARE IFR/MVFR WITH SHWRS
FROM KTYR/KGGG TO KTXK, WHILE VFR UNFOLDS FOR AR/LA. OUR CURRENT
UNSETTLED PATTERN LIES ALONG A RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY WITH SHALLOW
NE10KT FLOW FROM SFC UP TO 2KFT. ATTM CLIMB WINDS SLACK AND VEER TO
S/SE, THEN BUMP TO 10-20KT THROUGH THE MIDDECK WITH DEEP SW20-40KT
FLOW ALOFT FOR FL220-350. COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM OLD POLO AND
YESTERDAY'S TS DEBRIS. OUR NE WINDS WILL DEEPEN UP TO 3-4KFT WITH 5-
15KT, BUILDING DOWN FROM A 2ND SFC HIGH, SPRAWLING ACROSS CANADA
INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE SAT, WHICH WILL DRY US OUT BY SUN.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 85 68 82 / 20 30 30 30
MLU 71 88 69 81 / 20 40 50 40
DEQ 66 77 64 85 / 30 30 20 10
TXK 67 78 65 82 / 30 30 30 20
ELD 67 83 65 82 / 20 20 30 30
TYR 70 80 68 82 / 40 40 30 30
GGG 70 83 68 82 / 30 30 30 30
LFK 73 86 70 82 / 20 40 40 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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