136
FXUS64 KSHV 011125
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
- WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH NEEDED RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
MESSAGE 2
- UNFORTUNATELY WITH THOSE RAIN CHANCES WILL COME THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AT LEAST BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OUR OUR REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WITH THE
RETURNING SOUTHEAST WINDS, TEMPERATURES RESPONDED WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM NEAR 80 TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS ALL AREAS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS
AND/OR ADVECTION FOG COMING NORTHWARD FROM SE TX AND SW LA
OVERNIGHT SO ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY MORNING SUNDAY
NEAR AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN, THIS WOULD BE DUE TO WEAK
UPPER FORCING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN FOR SUNDAY,
MAYBE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY BUT A SECOND DAY OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WHICH WILL KEEP THE WILDFIRE THREAT LEVEL
ELEVATED FOR SUNDAY.
FLAT UPPER RIDGING TO SHIFT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS VALLEY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
IS THE PATTERN CHANGE WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, ONE THAT WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK BUT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH FILLS BEFORE
EJECTING OUT INTO MAINLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A POSITIVE TILT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING TROUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF
TO INSTITUTE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST HALF WED AFTN/NIGHT. THINK THE KEY TO THIS LIKELIHOOD
WOULD BE THE SHORTWAVE HELPING TO NUDGE A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
MERGER OUR WAY DURING THE DAY WED AND IT'S THIS FEATURE WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SURFACE FORCING FOR SFC BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WITH THE AID OF INSTABILITY. ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
MORE IN-LINE WITH SPC'S THINKING OF INCLUDING OUR NORTHWEST
REGION IN THIS SEVERE THREAT ON WED COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES
WHICH ARE MORE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST SO THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THIS PROBABILITY BY MIDWEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH RELOADS FOR THU INTO FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. THE KEY
TO THIS FLOW WILL BE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING OUR WAY TO HELP
GENERATE THE KIND OF FORCING NECESSARY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECAUSE BROAD-SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN LOCKED OUT
WEST WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL NOT BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNTIL WELL BEYOND THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS, AREAS OF VSBY REDUCTION HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AIRSPACE. THE ONLY TERMINALS EXPERIENCING
IMPACTS AT THIS HOUR ARE KLFK AND KSHV, REFLECTED IN TEMPO
GROUPS. WILL AMEND IF CONDITIONS WORSEN OR FURTHER IMPACTS
DEVELOP. MIST AND FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDMORNING, WITH
VFR SKIES TO FOLLOW AS LOW AND MID LEVEL DECKS GIVE WAY TO HIGH
CLOUDS. SIMILAR CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE
TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGHOUT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY INTO EAST TEXAS AIRSPACE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR-STATE AREA, TO HELP OUR FIRST
RESPONDERS PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 55 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 82 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 80 51 80 54 / 10 20 10 0
TXK 83 57 83 59 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 81 53 82 55 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 83 55 83 61 / 10 0 10 0
GGG 83 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 82 55 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page