784
FXUS64 KSHV 022350
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- A WET PATTERN EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH OF I-30, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS NEAR THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, CONDITIONS
WILL FEEL A LITTLE MUGGY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AREAWIDE. COULD SEE A LAYER OF STRATUS DEVELOP BENEATH THE
INVERSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
FURTHER SURGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO IGNITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS WITH AN SPC 15% RISK AREA JUST WEST OF THE ARKLATEX AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. BOTH OF THESE
THREATS ARE THE RESULT OF DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ALONG A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING PRODUCING A MAINLY
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WITH A FAIRLY STAGNANT MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THE THREAT FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF RAINFALL, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, COULD LEAD TO
A FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL OCCUR
AS IT WILL BE BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR
THE TIME BEING, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WPC IS ADVERTISING 4.5 INCH
TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST OF I-30. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOME LIGHT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THAT WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST NEAR
DAYBREAK. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND BE
MORE SCATTED BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD: STAYING AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 20
KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO DIE DOWN AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 84 65 84 / 0 10 0 20
MLU 57 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 55 80 60 79 / 10 10 20 50
TXK 60 83 65 84 / 0 10 10 30
ELD 55 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 62 84 66 83 / 0 10 10 40
GGG 60 83 64 84 / 0 10 0 30
LFK 60 83 65 84 / 0 10 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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