325
FXUS64 KSHV 220605
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES COMMON EACH DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. RESULTANT HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105-110 DEGREES EACH DAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, AND COULD LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA, WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME BRIEF RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
GIVEN THE INTENSE HEAT/INSTABILITY, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS.
- ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
POSSIBLY GRAZE THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
EASTERN LOUISIANA MONDAY MORNING, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK,
FURTHER AGGRAVATING DETERIORATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALREADY IN
PLACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH
THAT FOCUSED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING, EXTREME HEAT INDICES AT AND
ABOVE 110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF LOWER E TX/N LA, AS WELL AS
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION EARLIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS BEING
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED S INTO THE NRN GULF, WITH SFC WINDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETURN FROM THE S ACROSS SW LA AND ADJACENT
SE TX. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION BACK OUT OF THE WSW
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE VRB THROUGH THE DAY. THE SHORT TERM PROG
CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GREATER FOCUS PRIMARILY TIED
TO ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT S INTO NE OK/NRN AR
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL AID IN ENHANCED FORCING AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SE INTO THE OZARKS AROUND THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN
ROCKIES. OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR N MAY HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SE OK/SW AR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT
TRAVERSES S INTO THE REGION BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING. THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY STORY THOUGH
AS WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS WILL RETURN, WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
IF NOT HOTTER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
A LITTLE BETTER MIXING OF DEWPOINTS THAN WHAT OCCURRED FRIDAY,
WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 105-110 DEGREES. THUS, HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT MAINLY OVER SW AR/N LA BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE DAY OVER SRN AR/N LA WHICH MAY HELP TO TAPER BACK MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED AREAWIDE, WITH ATTENDANT HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM
105-110 DEGREES. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO
EXPAND FARTHER E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION THAT WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE OVER THE OZARKS INTO NRN AR/MID-SOUTH REGION SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND RIDE SE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. A PORTION OF
THIS CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE FAR ERN ZONES OF SCNTRL AR/NE LA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LIKELY
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING TO SOME EXTENT SUCH THAT THESE AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS "COOLING" FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, AS THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS E ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY,
REINFORCING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
RETROGRADING BACK W INTO THE DESERT SW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE NWRLY
FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
WEAKNESSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT SE AND POTENTIALLY FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE RESULTANT
CLOUD COVER AND DAILY CONVECTION MAY ALSO HELP TO SCALE BACK
AFTERNOON TEMPS A TAD AS WELL, CLOSER TO IF NOT A TOUCH BELOW THE
CENTURY MARK.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FOR THE 22/06Z TAF PERIOD, VCTS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 22/18Z THROUGH 23/04Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES IN
RESPONSE TO A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER CONVECTION. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 104 79 103 80 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 104 75 101 77 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 103 72 101 74 / 20 20 10 0
TXK 103 75 102 77 / 20 20 10 10
ELD 104 74 100 74 / 20 20 10 10
TYR 105 80 105 81 / 20 10 10 0
GGG 106 78 105 80 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 103 77 103 77 / 20 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...19
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