389
FXUS64 KSHV 040534
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1134 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR NW ZONES
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- A BRIEF PAUSE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY.
- A RENEWED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NW ZONES WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS SO FAR TODAY, THE CURRENT PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY SPRING-LIKE WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
STILL MANAGED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES
IN A FEW AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THAT THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH HAVE PUSHED DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S, AND IT BEGINS TO PAINT THE PICTURE OF A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN ON THE HORIZON AS WE WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO
MOVING FORWARD INTO TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, OUR PRIMARY FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY,
ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AT THE SFC, A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK INTO
THE OZARKS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SW FROM EASTERN OK
INTO NORTH CNTRL TX. DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS
THE SE CONUS, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LARGELY FOCUSED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS THE RIDGE WILL SERVE TO
DEFLECT MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT WILL EXIST OVER THE NW PORTIONS OF NE TX INTO SE OK AND THE
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW AR TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH, SPC HAS OUTLINED THESE AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK PER THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE PRIMARY
THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLIGHT RISK WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT
IS LOWER BUT NOT ENTIRELY RULED OUT. MEANWHILE, A MARGINAL RISK IS
ALSO INCLUDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SE BUT ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY
SHARP GRADIENT WHERE CONVECTION CUTS OFF DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE INFLUENCE.
MOVING AHEAD TO THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THE SFC FRONT WHICH
HAD ALREADY STRUGGLED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AT ALL INTO OUR NW
ZONES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IS
LOST. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR NW
SECTIONS THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY WHILE WE AWAIT A STRONGER AND
MORE POTENT TROUGH TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRESENT THE NEXT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR
NW ZONES AND POTENTIALLY FARTHER SE AS CONVECTION BECOMES MUCH
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DESPITE THE LESS
THAN IDEAL TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND, THE RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE THE START OF A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED TO LINGER OVER BAJA FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST
WILL INCLUDE DAILY RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THIS 7-DAY PERIOD
WITH A GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TX
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. MOST SITES WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WHERE
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS IT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL AT SOME POINT. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY, GUSTING UP TO
20 KTS IN PLACES DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AREAS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 84 65 84 / 0 10 20 10
MLU 63 84 63 84 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 60 79 59 79 / 10 40 70 60
TXK 64 84 65 83 / 10 30 50 40
ELD 60 81 61 82 / 0 10 10 20
TYR 66 83 65 84 / 10 30 40 40
GGG 64 84 64 85 / 0 20 30 20
LFK 65 83 65 84 / 0 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57
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