449
FXUS64 KSHV 020020
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND
NORTH & CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING A RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG A COOL FRONT ON SATURDAY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND.
- COOLER MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
IN WAKE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN, HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALL OF THE PRECIP
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA, BUT IT IS STARTING TO PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NORTH LOUISIANA. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BEFORE IT
ALL DIMINISHES BY SUNSET. BY THIS EVENING, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL START
TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE FRONT
WILL WASHOUT BEFORE IT GETS INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. BUT, A LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEFORE DYING OFF. THE EXTENT ON HOW
FAR THIS PRECIPITATION MAKES IT STILL REMAINS A QUESTION, BUT
THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT IS GETS TO AREAS WEST OF I-49,
WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF OUR EAST TEXAS ZONES, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AT THIS TIME, NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
CONVECTION, AS MOST OF THE DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIKELY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER, MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY, AS PROGS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME IMPULSES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO OUR REGION.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY, AS A STRONGER
TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS,
PUSHING A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WITH THIS BEING A
STRONGER SYSTEM, SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. DETAILS AND
TIMING STILL NEED TO BE SORT OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT, MUCH
COOLER, DRIER, AND SEASONALLY NORMAL TYPE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MORNING LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR NOW IN THE WAKE OF A PSEUDO
ENHANCED SEABREEZE WITH GUSTS TO 30-40KT BEFORE THE LAST UPDATE.
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH DAYBREAK, BUT THEY ARE WELL
MODELED TO BE WEAKENING. HEATING MAY FLARE MORE LATER. THEN HIT
OR MISS POP-UPS FOR FRIDAY AND A DECENT LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA EARLY TO MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 82 68 84 / 10 60 0 40
MLU 68 85 68 86 / 0 50 10 50
DEQ 63 82 62 80 / 50 70 30 50
TXK 69 84 68 85 / 30 70 20 50
ELD 65 82 64 85 / 10 50 10 50
TYR 68 82 68 83 / 30 70 10 30
GGG 68 82 67 84 / 20 70 10 30
LFK 68 80 67 84 / 10 60 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page