927
FXUS64 KSHV 121145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SOME RESPITE TO THE HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COOL FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, WHICH COULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN/CNTRL/SW OK
INTO NW TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
SURPRISINGLY DIMINISHED GREATLY WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS, ASIDE
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION S OF SPS, WITH A MORE ORGANIZED BUT
COMPACT CLUSTER BETWEEN MKO AND FYV IN ERN OK/NW AR. THE 00Z HREF
INITIALIZED MUCH TOO BULLISH WITH THE CONVECTION EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THUS IS NOT RELIABLE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, WITH
THE HRRR NOT MUCH HELP EITHER AS IT REMAINS A LITTLE TOO BULLISH
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE 04Z RUN DOES INITIALIZE ON THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER FAR ERN OK/NW AR BETTER THAN THE 00Z NAM/GFS. BUT
THAT DOESN'T GIVE MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IN
TERMS OF CONVECTION PLACEMENT/COVERAGE AS THE WEAK SFC BNDRY MAY
CONTINUE TO DRIFT A BIT FARTHER SE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN N
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, UNLESS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION OVER ERN OK/NW AR IS ABLE TO REINFORCE THE FRONT S.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS TO MID AND HIGH
CHANCE THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG/NW OF I-30, WITH THE POTENTIAL
THAT THE CONVECTION WELL TO OUR N IS ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER SSE
INTO WRN AR THROUGH/AFTER DAYBREAK.
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER NRN AR NEAR THE ONGOING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGHING SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING REMAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BNDRYS AND STRONG
HEATING/INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS IT MAY BUILD FROM N TO S, POSSIBLY
REACHING THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA BY AFTERNOON. DID
UNDERCUT THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NBM POPS WHICH INITIALIZED MUCH TOO
HIGH WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION NOW, WITH ANY CONVECTION ABLE TO
BUILD S TODAY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MAX TEMPS TODAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
ALONG/S OF I-20, WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN MARGINAL AROUND 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF ON A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SRN OLD MX ACROSS TX AND THE
GULF COAST REMAINS PROGGED TO BEGIN EXPANDING BACK N A TOUCH LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY, THUS ERODING ANY REMAINING RESEMBLANCE OF THE
SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE, WHILE PROMOTING MORE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT, A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD HOT,
HUMID, AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, WITH MAX TEMPS AGAIN
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH RESULTANT HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105 DEGREES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT
BEGINNING TO TRAVERSE OK/AR SUNDAY WILL HELP TO SLOWLY ERODE THE
NRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE, WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REINFORCE A
WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE REGION. THE JURY REMAINS OUT AS TO HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT WILL SHIFT S, ASSUMING IT IS NOT CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED S LIKE THE ECMWF, ALTHOUGH DEEPENING THETA-E ADVECTION
OVER E TX/N LA SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY HELP TO INVIGORATE THE
SEABREEZE AS WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION IN VC OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THUS, CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, PERSISTING ALONG THE WEAK FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO ENTRAIN SE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY,
DIMINISHING THE CONVECTION FROM NW TO SE. TROPICAL MOISTURE COMMON
ACROSS NRN OLD MX THIS WEEKEND/EARLY THIS NEXT WEEK REMAINS
PROGGED TO ADVECT E INTO THE REGION ALONG THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH, WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY, WITH QPF'S
OF 1-3+ INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR DROUGHT IMPACTED AREA. A
WELCOME REPRIEVE TO THE HEAT IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, BEFORE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THOUGH GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW VFR AND ONE
LIFR SITE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER A BIT THROUGH THE MORNING.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO KTXK AND
POSSIBLY KTYR AND KGGG BEFORE WEAKENING. VCSH COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
OTHER LOCATIONS AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE, BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN HERE. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY
EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING WITH SOME VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS BEFORE RETURNING TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 76 95 78 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 96 76 96 78 / 20 10 0 0
DEQ 89 75 92 75 / 50 10 10 50
TXK 94 77 96 78 / 40 10 10 20
ELD 92 75 94 77 / 30 10 10 10
TYR 94 77 95 78 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 94 76 95 78 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...57
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