164
FXUS64 KSHV 151138
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
638 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA, PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AND THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT OVER THESE SAME AREAS, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING MAY
REMATERIALIZE OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT HAS
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX (NEAR AND N OF
TYR/GGG) TO ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER. CONVECTION EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAD BEEN TIED ALONG THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WAS STRONGER, WITH THE CONVECTION NOW DRIVING THE FRONT FARTHER S
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ATTM. THE 00Z KSHV SAMPLED A VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PW'S SETTING
A DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD AT 2.3 INCHES, WHICH REMAINS
EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS S OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/S TX/LA AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUS, THE STORMS EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, WITH
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OVER TYR NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR, WITH A
SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS PRODUCING HOURLY RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF
4"/HR IN/NEAR ATHENS IN CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY WHERE FLASH
FLOODING WAS SIGNIFICANT PER SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THIS AREA,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FARTHER N ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FARTHER S OVER SE TX/SW LA BUILDING BACK N WITH VARIOUS
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS FOCUSING THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING AND
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF EXCESSIVELY HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THAT THE
NEAR RECORD PW'S WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ANY
REDEVELOPING STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, WITH THE CAMS
STRUGGLING BUT GENERALLY SUGGESTING THAT THESE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
MAY FALL OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA ALONG/S OF I-20. FOR THIS
REASON, AS WELL AS WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER E TX,
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR THIS AREA, AND
WHILE GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5-6+ INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MUCH OF WHICH MAY FALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. BELIEVE THAT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED, WITH DRY SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAMFLOWS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL INHIBITING A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT.
WHILE THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD AGAIN SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE, WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN SE ONCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DIGS SE THROUGH THE MS/OH VALLEYS. THE FRONT AND ITS H925-850
REFLECTION THEMSELVES SHOULD BEGIN TO WASH OUT TUESDAY MORNING AS
WELL, WITH THE CONVECTION LARGELY TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION TRAVERSING SE BENEATH THE BROAD TROUGH. A WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE BY WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPS RETURN BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL, ALTHOUGH OUR ATTENTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON A
WEAKNESS ALOFT THAT THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER DEEP S TX TUESDAY, WHILE GRADUALLY TRAVERSING NE ALONG THE TX
COAST NEAR OR ALONG THE SE TX COAST WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL TROPICAL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ATTENDANT LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE THE TX COAST, THUS ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OVER DEEP E TX/N LA. FOR A SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BE CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THE GFS REMAINS A BIT TOO
FAST WITH THE NE PROPAGATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION MORE PREFERABLE WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS LOWER E TX/MUCH OF LA/SRN AR.
THUS, A SECONDARY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE OVER
THESE AREAS THURSDAY, WITH ANY FLOOD SENSITIVITY LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT FALLS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANY REMAINING CONVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE TIED TO ANY WEAKNESS/MOISTURE
AXIS LEFTOVER FROM THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM, WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE
PROGS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS TO BEGIN BUILDING E INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THANK YOU WFO'S LCH/JAN FOR COORDINATION EARLIER THIS EVENING.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
FOR THE 15/12Z TAF PERIOD, CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MOST TERMINAL
SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TXK/ELD WHICH CAN EXPECT VCTS
POTENTIAL CLOSER TO 16/00Z. LOW VFR AND PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
TO ALL VFR POSSIBLE BY 16/00Z. CEILINGS FORECAST TO AGAIN FALL TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY FOR RAINFALL AND FLOOD
REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 72 84 73 / 90 50 50 10
MLU 81 71 83 73 / 90 70 70 10
DEQ 82 68 88 70 / 30 10 10 10
TXK 82 69 90 72 / 50 20 20 0
ELD 79 68 85 71 / 60 40 30 10
TYR 83 72 87 73 / 80 30 30 0
GGG 81 72 86 73 / 90 50 40 0
LFK 80 72 82 73 / 90 80 80 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ126-136>138-149>153-
165>167.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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