543
FXUS64 KSHV 050646
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
146 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- ALTHOUGH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF EARLY JULY WILL PERSIST, OUR
DAILY RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
WITH A LOW-END SEVERE RISK OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
- AN INDUCED TROUGH AXIS WILL HOLD SERVE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AS WE
REMAIN FLANKED BY A RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND WEST, KEEPING THE MORE
INTENSE SUMMER HEAT AT BAY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO EXERT GREATER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD MEAN A TREND TOWARD HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MOTHER NATURE DELIVERED SOME IMPRESSIVE FIREWORKS OF HER OWN OVER
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY, AND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE NEXT WAVE
OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING TOWARD THE I-30 CORRIDOR WHERE A DECAYING
MCS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SE OF THE RED RIVER. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN
IT WAS STILL UPSTREAM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA,
FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS STILL ACCOMPANYING THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF I-30 THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS BEFORE
LARGELY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
IN ITS WAKE, LOOK FOR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO SET UP AND
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION LATER ON TODAY AS STRONG
SFC HEATING HELPS TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SURGE BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S ONCE AGAIN. FOR
THIS REASON, SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR REGION
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY. THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY WITH THIS LOW-END RISK IN ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT
IF ANOTHER MCS IS ABLE TO MANIFEST FARTHER UPSTREAM. IN ADDITION,
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL BUT IT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL EFFECTIVELY REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF INDUCED TROUGHING BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE SE
COAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A STRONGER ONE BUILDING TO THE WEST.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN, WE SHOULD EXPECT MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE OUT WEST
BEGINS TO EXPAND CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY MID TO LATE WEEK. IN THIS
SCENARIO, OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED WHILE SUMMER
HEAT REALLY RAMPS UP WITH POTENTIALLY OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS SUMMER.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CONVECTION HAS THUS DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AIRSPACE LATE THIS
EVENING BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OUR OF SE OK ATTM. TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO SHOWING THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION IS BREAKING APART RAPIDLY AND A MAJORITY OF PROGS
SUPPORT THIS WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT. HAVING SAID THAT, DID
PREVAIL VCTS AT THE TXK AIRPORT WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE EVENT THAT NEW CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP ALONG WITH COLD POOL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BEYOND SUNRISE,
FOLLOWED THE HREF TREND WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BEFORE WE SEE A BREAK
IN COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY RENEWED CONVECTION MID AFTN THRU THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOOK FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS EXCEPT MUCH STRONGER AND
GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY, SPOTTER REPORTS
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING IF NOT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 76 93 75 / 50 40 30 40
MLU 94 75 93 75 / 40 50 40 40
DEQ 92 71 92 71 / 40 20 20 20
TXK 95 74 94 74 / 50 30 20 30
ELD 92 72 91 72 / 40 40 20 20
TYR 97 77 96 76 / 40 20 30 30
GGG 96 76 95 75 / 50 30 30 40
LFK 96 77 95 76 / 20 20 40 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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