382
FXUS64 KSHV 120630
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH LOW&MID CLOUDS LIFTING
ACROSS I-30. MUCH LOWER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE IN E TX BY SUNRISE.
- SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMNANTS WILL BE EDGING
ACROSS TX/OK WITH MORE TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING PUSHING EASTWARD.
- WE HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY
IN THE DAY AND THEN MORE WILL POSSIBLE WITH HEATING BY MIDDAY
AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD TO ALONG I-49 BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A MILD START TODAY WILL FIND LOW TO MID 60S, KEEPING IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY N AND W,
BUT STILL MORE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY EAST OF I-49 WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION AND MANY SHORT TERM MODELS PAINT
SOME GOOD QPF MOVING NORTH OF I-30 BY DAYBREAK WITH A WEAKER PUSH
ALONG I-20 EARLY THAT WILL WEAKEN BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
RAIN COOLED BOUNDARIES WITH SOME MOMENTUM INTO THE HEART OF OUR
FOUR STATE AREA AS ADDITION CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL TX.
PLUS WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD
REFIRE DEVELOPMENT AND POP-UP SOME STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE
EXPECTED ABOVE AVERAGE HEATING ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY EDGE.
THIS SECOND STRONGER PUSH FROM CENTRAL TX WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TO
PUSH ALONG AND UNDER OUR I-30 CORRIDOR FOR THE AFTERNOON, AND
TRAILING DOWN ACROSS I-20 IN E TX BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
PUSH WILL HAVE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
ACTIVITY WHILE EDGING TOWARD TEXARKANA AND SHREVEPORT FOR THE
LATE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.
THE SPC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AT ALL WITH SW AR AND SOME OF NW LA
STILL IN THEIR NEW DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY,
WHICH WILL BECOMING ACTIVE AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING.
THE QPF IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR MASSES, BUT DUE TO SLOW
MOVEMENT OF SOME THE CLUSTERING POTENTIAL, THE WPC CONTINUES THEIR
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TO SEE CONVECTION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PUSH WILL BE IT FOR NOW, BUT MONDAY WILL KEEP SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE, BUT UNTIL THE LONG WAVE OUT WEST
RELOADS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW BY MIDWEEK TAKING AIM ON OUR NW
THIRD OF COUNTIES IN OK/TX. THE STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO BUFFER
UP AGAINST THE BIG UPPER RIDGE HOLDING STATION OVER THE SE U.S.
THE CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEEL A LITTLE MUGGY AND
QUITE WARM WITH WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SPC HAS ADDITIONAL SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISKS FOR SEVERE ON
THEIR DAY 5 FOR OUR WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIKEWISE, THE
WPC REPOSITIONS ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DURING MIDWEEK WITH THIS NEXT PUSH ON THEIR NEW DAY 4,
WITH THIS NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG I-30
AND I-20 IN E TX. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, BEYOND MIDWEEK TO LATE
WEEK AS CONVECTION WANES, WE WILL SEE MORE 60S FOR LOWS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S LATE WEEK AHEAD OF OUR THIRD ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH
MUCH BETTER COVERAGE FOR ALL DURING NEXT WEEKEND AS A DECENT COLD
FRONT SHIFTS OUR S/SW WINDS TO NW DURING SATURDAY. THE MODELS
PAINT UP SOME GOOD QPF WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY POST FRONTAL,
LIKE OUR LAST GOOD RAIN. THIS ARRIVING AIR MASS WILL BRING BACK
COOLER MORNINGS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF PERIOD...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS EXIST WITH LOW AC AND CIRRUS CIGS AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO START THE 12/06Z TAF PERIOD, LOW MVFR CIGS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SE TX WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD N
INTO E TX OVERNIGHT, AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-10Z,
BEFORE EVENTUALLY AFFECTING SHV/TXK BETWEEN 12-15Z. THESE CIGS WILL
TAKE A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING TO LIFT, AND MAY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AS A BAND OF
CONVECTION NOW ONGOING JUST W OF SPS/MWL/81R CONTINUES TO SPREAD E
INTO E TX BY/AFTER 15Z. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES INTO SRN AR/N LA AFTER 18Z, AND THUS HAVE ADDED VCTS TO ALL
BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THESE LATTER TWO TERMINALS, WHERE VCSH
WAS ADDED BETWEEN 21-00Z. CU CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY ACROSS N LA/SRN AR AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
WHILE THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT AROUND 00Z, THESE CIGS WILL LINGER
ACROSS E TX/PORTIONS OF EXTREME SW AR/NW LA WHERE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO REDEVELOP AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTION OVER LOWER E TX SUNDAY EVENING, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SPREADING NNE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S AND
INCREASE TO 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 68 85 67 / 40 50 40 0
MLU 87 67 87 65 / 10 20 30 0
DEQ 78 62 79 62 / 70 70 60 10
TXK 82 68 83 67 / 60 60 60 10
ELD 84 64 84 63 / 20 50 50 10
TYR 79 68 82 68 / 80 60 30 0
GGG 82 66 83 67 / 60 60 40 0
LFK 82 67 84 67 / 50 50 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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