268
FXUS64 KSHV 081027
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES.
- FIRE WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN WITH
THE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TAKE CAUTION DURING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO PREVENT FIRE STARTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
RADAR HAS BEEN DYING DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND STORMS GUSTING OUT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION MENTIONED MODELS HIGHLIGHTING A LOW RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORMS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING WILL
REINTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD BETTER INITIALIZATION COMPARED TO RUNS FROM
EARLIER TODAY AND HAVE SHOWERS FROM THIS MCV CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
ALMOST WITHOUT EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO HANG
AROUND UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING BUT NOTHING LIKE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE
GREATEST RISK. THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
BUT ANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WPC DOES HAVE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-TX UNDER MARGINAL ERO'S THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR URBAN FLOODING SHOULD ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THEM. THERE
IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE SHOWERS FORM. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, MAKING WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOR THE 08/12Z TAF PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
AND COULD MOVE IN AND AROUND KELD/KTXK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAIN IN QUESTION, SO DECIDED TO GO WITH VCTS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AND AMEND IF NEEDED. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 75 94 76 / 40 20 30 0
MLU 94 73 94 74 / 60 20 20 10
DEQ 93 71 95 72 / 30 0 0 0
TXK 94 74 95 75 / 40 10 10 0
ELD 90 71 92 72 / 60 20 30 10
TYR 97 75 96 75 / 30 20 10 0
GGG 97 74 96 74 / 40 20 10 0
LFK 96 74 94 74 / 20 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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