750
FXUS64 KSHV 281052
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WARMING TREND BRINGS THE REGION BACK INTO THE 80S.
- AN UNSTABLE PATTERN COULD BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. LUCKILY FOR THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS BECOMES PRONOUNCED WITH THE AFTERNOON DROP
IN RH. AS SUCH, WE ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO STILL
COMMUNICATE THE FIRE DANGER RISK FOR SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY. AFTER
WHICH, ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AND BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY THAT WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERSISTANT ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO RETURN AS THE DOMINANT PATTERN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET THINGS UP NICELY FOR
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST AND POSSIBLY
BRING SOME RAIN DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY RAIN IN THIS
FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT. BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH CONSENSUS FOR WPC TO BEGIN ADVERTISING ALMOST 1 IN QPF
VALUES ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TX IN THE D1-7 OUTLOOK, WHICH IS PLENTY
MORE THAN THE REGION HAS SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25KTS SHOULD CONTINUE DIMINISHING AS WE GO THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. POST FRONTAL CEILINGS VARY FROM 35HDFT TO NEAR
100KFT ATTM AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MAY BE MORE STUBBORN ACROSS
OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING, TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 50 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 68 47 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 65 43 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 67 49 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 67 44 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 66 52 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 68 50 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 70 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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