142  
FXUS64 KSHV 031137  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
537 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW CLOUDS ADVECTING NORTH  
ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS. MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX  
FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK WITH  
CEILINGS FORECAST TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON AS AMBIENT WARM AIRMASS BEGINS TO MIX OUT CLOUDS AS  
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S. AMPLE SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES.  
 
A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM  
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SLIGHTLY  
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING FROM AN APPROACHING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS  
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH WINDS  
AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY,  
BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST  
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASING  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN THE LOWER  
60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE  
LONG-TERM PERIOD MONDAY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EARLY IN THE EVENING  
COMBINED WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO  
GENERATE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS  
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MARGINAL SPC SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THE  
ENTIRE ARKLATEX FOR MAINLY MONDAY EVENING.  
 
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL-FLOW PREVAILING  
ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF NEUTRAL INSTABILITY AND A LINGERING WEAK  
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST TEXAS COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-TROUGH DIGGING  
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SHIFT THE UPPER-FLOW PATTERN  
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED  
INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL  
INSTABILITY AND A LINGERING WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH  
THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN  
EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-TROUGH.  
 
OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.  
/05/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2024  
 
FOR THE 03/12Z TAF UPDATE, LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FG WILL CONTINUE TO  
MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGS UNTIL 03/15Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO  
MVFR. THAT SAID, PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE  
AND CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW MVFR/IFR CLOUDS  
RETURNING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 80 63 78 63 / 0 0 50 60  
MLU 77 62 79 62 / 0 0 50 70  
DEQ 76 57 75 56 / 0 10 30 60  
TXK 78 61 77 60 / 0 0 40 60  
ELD 77 59 79 59 / 0 0 50 60  
TYR 78 63 80 63 / 0 0 30 60  
GGG 79 62 79 62 / 0 0 40 60  
LFK 80 64 78 63 / 0 0 60 60  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....05  
AVIATION...16  
 
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