358
FXUS64 KSHV 252326
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MORNING FOG WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY, PUSHING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND CONCLUDING BY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAWIDE LOWS BELOW
FREEZING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR SENSITIVE PERSONS AND
VEGETATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND , WITH ITS AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
THEREFORE, THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE WELL-
ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WHICH HAS DEFINED
THIS WEEK SO FAR. AS PSEUDO-ZONAL TO VARIABLE TO VARIABLE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES, NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE
BRIEF, BUT BASED ON THE LAST FEW MORNINGS, THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER MAY BE STUBBORN, TAKING MUCH OF THE MORNING TO FULLY
DISSIPATE. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VARIATION, THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR AREA
SITES, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
BY THIS WEEKEND, AN EMERGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
DEVELOPING A POSITIVE TILT AS IT DOES SO. UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
CAUSE THE TROUGH TO STALL OVER THE FRONT RANGE BEFORE GETTING
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH, BUT IT WILL STILL MANAGE
TO SWING A POTENT COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLATEX LATE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL KICK UP SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST BEGINNING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SUNDAY, SPREADING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT, COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY,
AND INTO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH AND EAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RECOVERY, AS HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO SEE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH. IT WILL BE ADVISABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO HAVE PRECAUTIONS
IN PLACE FOR SENSITIVE PERSONS, OUTDOOR PETS AND VEGETATION, AS WELL
AS EXPOSED PIPES. TUESDAY WILL SEE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING LOWS TO
FOLLOW BEFORE WEDNESDAY SEES THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST AFTERNOON OF 2025.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT BECOMING IFR/LIFR NEAR
DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 26/18Z. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS ON FRIDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 935 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 63 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 60 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 65 80 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 61 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 65 80 65 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 64 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 63 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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