444
FXUS64 KSHV 152321
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, POSING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK
FOR QUICK FIRE STARTS AND RAPID FIRE SPREADS.
- THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD FOLLOW
ALL HEAT-RELATED AND FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS AND SAFETY TIPS
(REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/SHV FOR MORE DETAILS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING DEPICTS A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GULF
COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS FEATURE,
WHERE SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST.
NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ALSO REMAINS THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US AND THE GULF, WITH
SEVERAL EITHER QUASI-STATIONARY OR COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE, THE FOUR STATE REGION
REMAINS LOCKED INTO A HOT/HUMID AND DRY PATTERN, DUE IN PART BY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM THE EXPANSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG WITH CONTINUED S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OFF THE GULF
AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WILL BE IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OWING TO LESS OVERALL BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (THANKS TO A MORE RELAXED
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT). THE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MOST ALL AREAS REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES LATER TODAY BETWEEN
105 AND 110 DEGREES. SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
PROVIDE ONLY VERY BRIEF SHADE FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
SO HEAT PRECAUTIONS REALLY NEED TO BE EXERCISED TODAY. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY GIVEN
THE CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT WINDS & WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER/HIGHER, RESPECTIVELY, AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
NO CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AREA-WIDE WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 100S AND MAKE FOR ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN
AGAIN AREA-WIDE, THIS AREA OF THE CWA WILL BE OF INCREASED
CONCERN. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO FOLLOW GUIDANCE FROM LOCAL
AUTHORITIES ON BURN BAN INFORMATION AS WELL AS BE AWARE OF AND
TAKE GENERAL FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS.
MONDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF THE WEEKEND WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUING. THAT SAID, A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT
COVERAGE CURRENTLY APPEARS QUITE ISOLATED, LIMITING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BY TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE EC/GFS/CMC SUGGEST A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WHICH WOULD PLACE NW ALOFT A BIT CLOSER TO
OUR REGION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST SLIGHTLY. THIS, ALONG
WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES COULD HELP SPARK SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS SW AR AND PERHAPS EVEN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL LA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY BUT IT MAY OFFER THE
FIRST PROMISING CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
AREAS.
THEREAFTER, FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH LATE-WEEK, THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW WELL THE RETROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CAN HOLD IN
PLACE. THIS IS WHERE, EXPECTEDLY, THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE,
WITH SOME SHOWING THE RIDGE RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND
OTHERS HAVING IT CREEP BACK EAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. GLANCING UPSTREAM AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS
EVIDENCE OF AT LEAST A WEAK HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR
THE WEST COAST, WHICH LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
HOLDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID, THE SUBTLE DETAILS
IN EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCE WILL HOLD
IS THE CHALLENGE, AND HENCE THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DIFFERENCES.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BECOME INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST AS
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE,
ALTHOUGH THEY COULD COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES DURING THIS TIME
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN.
CK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT. LEFT SOME MENTION OF BR FOR KLFK TOWARDS
MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM TO FALL BELOW VFR. OTHERWISE,
STILL SEEING A FEW STRONGER GUSTS OUT THERE THIS EVENING, BUT WE
WILL GRADUALLY CALM FOR ALL AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /33/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FIRE STARTS AND
FIRE SPREADS INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MIN RH VALUES WILL DIP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES AREA-WIDE, BUT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST TX WHERE MORE AGGRESSIVE MIXING IS EXPECTED TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S (CLOSER TO 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE).
THIS COULD RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT, WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONTINUING TO DIP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE.
WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AROUND 10KTS.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WILDFIRE ACTIVITY TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS
AND FIRE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL.
CK
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 80 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 79 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 74 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 79 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 77 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 77 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 74 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...33
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