479
FXUS64 KSHV 040620
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
120 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- THE USUAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO ON THE UPSWING.
- UPPER RIDGE AXES TO OUR EAST AND WEST WILL LEAVE OUR REGION IN
AN INDUCED AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING, OPENING THE DOOR FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING SIGNALS THAT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXERT
GREATER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD
MEAN A TREND TOWARD HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY HELPED TO
SLIGHTLY QUELL THE SUMMER HEAT ONCE AGAIN, BUT MOST AREAS STILL
MANAGED TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THAT
SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT ON THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY AS WE CELEBRATE
250 YEARS AS A NATION, BUT THE FIREWORKS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO
JUST THE PYROTECHNICS AS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING AS INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN
AN AREA OF INDUCED TROUGHING BETWEEN A PAIR OF RIDGES FLANKED TO
OUR EAST AND WEST. AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND LARGELY A NON-FACTOR FOR US,
ANTICIPATE EVEN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. IN FACT, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO ALLOW FOR FIREWORK CELEBRATIONS TO GO OFF WITHOUT A HITCH.
THE INDUCED TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT, THE TROUGH AXIS MAY DIG EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP
DAILY RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, IT STILL APPEARS UPPER
RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD BACK CLOSER TO THE REGION AS WE
MOVE LATER INTO NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE, THAT CAN ONLY MEAN ONE THING
THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY, AND
THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN THE MEANTIME, KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS WITH OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS,
INCLUDING BOTH HEAT SAFETY AS WELL AS LIGHTNING AND OTHER HAZARDS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AT A MINIMUM, HAVE A PLAN TO ADJUST OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ON SHORT NOTICE AS WEATHER CONDITIONS WARRANT.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO OUR BELOVED USA! FROM US ALL AT NWS SHREVEPORT,
HAVE A SAFE AND JOYOUS INDEPENDENCE DAY!
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE ATTM AND
THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MINUS
SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBILITIES AT THE ELD/MLU AND LFK TERMINALS CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE EXISTS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
AS WELL AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO INCLUDE VCTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 17Z
TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 01Z. CONFIDENCE IS GREATER ACROSS
TERMINALS EAST OF OUR NE TX TERMINALS BUT INCLUDED VCTS AT THE NE TX
TERMINALS REGARDLESS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY, ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TODAY,
GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS BUT STRONGER AND GUSTY OF COURSE NEAR AND
AROUND CONVECTION.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, SPOTTER
REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 75 93 77 / 60 30 30 30
MLU 95 75 93 76 / 50 20 40 20
DEQ 92 72 93 73 / 50 20 30 50
TXK 94 74 95 75 / 70 20 30 40
ELD 92 72 92 74 / 70 20 40 40
TYR 96 77 97 78 / 20 20 30 20
GGG 95 76 95 77 / 30 20 30 30
LFK 96 76 95 77 / 20 20 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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