546
FXUS64 KSHV 151050
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SFC FRONT ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR OF LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK ENE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING AN END TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THAT MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION, WHILE GRADUALLY FLATTENING OUT. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH WARM
CONDITIONS, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 12-17 MPH TODAY, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE FLATTEN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAINED ELEVATED, BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS, BUT SOME PROGS ARE HINTING AT SOME SLIGHT POPS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 ON SATURDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE FLOW. ON SUNDAY, MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SOME
SEABREEZE CONVECTION MOVING INTO OUR LOUISIANA ZONES, MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 49 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT, THIS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LONG-TERM PROGS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RAMP UP BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING US DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AMONG THE MODELS WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. ALSO,
WITH THIS BEING MAY, WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE OUR REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AC BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. STARTING TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH CEILINGS NEAR
1KFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TYR TERMINAL SO WILL KEEP THE TEMPO
THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AT BOTH THE TYR AND LFK TERMINALS.
WE SHOULD SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND CONTINUING TO
TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY, LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10-16KTS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-25KTS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE AS WELL.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 72 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 91 71 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 89 70 88 68 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 92 71 90 70 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 90 71 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 90 71 87 72 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 93 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 92 70 88 73 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page