870
FXUS64 KSHV 151140
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
540 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- WRAP-AROUND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER AS A CLOSED LOW
HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH EJECTION, MAINTAINING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS WELL AS A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL EXTEND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED THE TROUGH EJECTION. AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO
WRAP IN BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW AND FORCING IS ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE EXPANDING SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
RESIDE ALONG AND NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER COVERAGE AS
YOU MOVE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR AS WELL AS NORTH OF I-30.
THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WANE BEFORE DIMINISHING
ALTOGETHER BY MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION, BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AREAWIDE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.
GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PROMOTING POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS UNDER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BY
TUESDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
ADVANCING INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SURGE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN WITH DAILY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES TO PARTS OF THE REGION TO END THE WEEK AND
LIKELY LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE FRONT BRIEFLY STALLING OUT BEFORE GETTING REINFORCED THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FOR THE 15/12Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS STILL
SHOWING SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA SO I HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR KELD AND KMLU FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL SEE
OVC SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH SOME
CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED UP BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SO FOR SOME
TERMINALS I HAVE MVFR PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD, AND A
FEW LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY TO DROP BACK
TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH THE FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY START TO CALM
AGAIN BY AROUND 15/22Z. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 48 72 52 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 69 48 69 50 / 70 0 0 0
DEQ 66 39 69 45 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 67 45 71 51 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 67 43 69 47 / 50 0 0 0
TYR 66 47 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 66 47 72 50 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 67 50 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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