513
FXUS64 KSHV 060913
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO START THE
NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK, BEFORE THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CIRRUS CIGS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH DRIER ELEVATED AIR HAS
BEGUN TO MIX E INTO N TX AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
TRAVERSING ESE THROUGH W TX. SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE THESE ELEVATED
CIGS DIMINISH ACROSS OUR NW ZONES BY DAYBREAK, AND ERODE FROM W TO
E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ELSEWHERE, AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE OZARKS INTO
CNTRL TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUS, STRONGER INSOLATION SHOULD
YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. DID BUMP UP THE NBM MAX TEMPS 1-2
DEGREES MONDAY, WHICH WORKED WELL WITH THE MAX TEMP FORECAST
OBSERVED EARLIER SUNDAY, WHILE ALSO LOWERING MIN TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES
MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING,
WHICH THE NBM NORMALLY STRUGGLES WITH. SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY
INCREASE FROM THE W LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THICKENING THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS, WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HELPING
TO MAINTAIN PLEASANT AND SEASONAL TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT THE SFC RIDGING IN
PLACE WILL BE SLIGHTLY REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING, THUS MAINTAINING AN ERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND KEEPING THE GULF CUT OFF.
SHOULD START TO SEE A MORE SE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
RESUME WEDNESDAY, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCING EVEN WITH THE
SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OVER THE REGION. FORCING WITH THIS
TROUGH MAY YIELD ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT MAY SNEAK INTO
CNTRL LA AND DEEP E TX, WITH THE VARIOUS PROGS NOW SUGGESTING THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
N LA INTO SRN AR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MORE OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN GIVEN THE WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRAVERSE THE REGION.
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO SW BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE APPALATIONS SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS FURTHER WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SE STATES. MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION MAY BE IN THIS "TRANSITION ZONE" WITH THE
DEEPER AND MORE ACTIVE SW FLOW OFF TO THE W ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL
TX. A MORE EWD SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE AXIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY PRIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA, WHILE A MORE WWD
SHIFT WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THUS, LOW
CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS THIS FAR OUT WITH REGARDS TO THE POP
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS 24HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL HOWEVER BUT LOOK FOR THIS CLOUD COVER TO THIN
AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR NE WINDS
SUSTAINED NEAR 10MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BEGINNING 06/15Z THRU
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 45 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 72 45 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 72 41 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 73 45 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 72 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 73 47 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 73 45 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 72 45 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
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