109
FXUS64 KSHV 150613
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CARRYING DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW. THIS THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
- ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING (15+ MPH)
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
- SOME NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT (NORTH OF I-20) AND AREAWIDE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL DELIVER A SERIES OF IMPACTS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS FIRST INCLUDES A CHANCE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED SWIFTLY
BY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS (SOME GUSTS AT 40 TO 45 MPH) TRANSLATING
TO THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL ALSO BE VERY EFFICIENT IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE COMING WIND FIELD
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE AS IMPACTFUL TO INFRASTRUCTURE AS THE
STORMS CARRYING DAMAGING WINDS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, WIND ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY GIVEN THE SPRING TIME GREEN-UP AND ANY BUDDING PLANTS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE ENHANCED DELIVERY OF
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AREAWIDE ISSUANCE.
STARTING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
IS A VERY GRADUAL WARMUP WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO PERSISTENT RIDGING WITH A
RIDGE AXIS THAT SHIFTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY, POSITIONING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION (MID-TO UPPER 80S,
EVEN SOME 90S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT FRIDAY).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
FOR THE 15/06Z TAF PERIOD...A WIDE RANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FIRST LOW
CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THOSE CIGS DIMINISH. AT THE SAME
TIME, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH, ALONG WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH, AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 37 51 30 / 50 30 0 0
MLU 84 37 50 29 / 50 70 0 0
DEQ 74 25 46 23 / 60 10 0 0
TXK 80 33 49 28 / 50 10 0 0
ELD 80 31 48 25 / 70 40 0 0
TYR 83 35 51 32 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 83 34 51 30 / 30 10 0 0
LFK 84 38 53 32 / 30 30 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
OKZ077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page