417  
FXUS64 KSHV 142311  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD,  
ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER  
THE AREA INTO TOMORROW. SOME OF THE HEAVIER CLOUD ACTIVITY WILL BE  
IN E. TEXAS, WHERE ALL SITE WILL CARRY SCT015 PAST 15/10Z. KLFK  
WILL REACH MVFR CEILINGS PAST 15/11Z DUE TO A THICKER, BROKEN  
CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  
 
/44/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE CENTER OF A BROAD, BUT SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL  
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, ONE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE  
LINE AND ONE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI, HAVE HELPED  
INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA, ACROSS ARKANSAS,  
AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND  
GEORGIA. THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE  
ARE BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN AS CLOSE AS SOUTHEAST  
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, BUT REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH.  
SO CLOSE, YET SO FAR AWAY.  
 
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED (I'M NOT COMPLAINING), BUT WE HAVE STILL  
HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING LEFT TODAY. THE COOLER  
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT  
INDEX VALUES FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS,  
NOTABLY THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF SHREVEPORT AND THE TOLEDO BEND  
COUNTRY ARE VERY CLOSE TO VERIFYING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.  
 
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. AS THE CENTER  
OF THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EVER CLOSER, WHAT LITTLE RAIN IS OUT  
THERE WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER AWAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED  
TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR  
INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT, THIS MAY KEEP OUR  
HEAT INDEX VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS ARE  
LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN, SO  
ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
CN  
 
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
PATTERN TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS  
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY  
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH  
THIS SETUP, EXPECT MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
SOUTH OF I-20 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
PLACING THE ARKLATEX ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHERE  
UPPER-FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SUBSIDENCE  
IN PLACE AREAWIDE, TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM ONGOING HEAT  
HEADLINES FOR A CHANGE. /05/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 78 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 10  
MLU 77 98 77 96 / 0 10 0 40  
DEQ 76 96 76 96 / 0 10 0 0  
TXK 77 95 77 94 / 0 10 0 10  
ELD 77 98 77 96 / 0 10 0 20  
TYR 77 96 77 95 / 0 10 0 0  
GGG 77 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 0  
LFK 77 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ073.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-  
059>061-070>073.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-  
070>072.  
 
LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-  
010>014-017>022.  
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ077.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ153-  
166-167.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-  
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-  
124>126-136>138-149>152-165.  
 

 
 

 
 
05/CN/44  
 
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