323
FXUS64 KSHV 050020
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- SHOWERS EXPECTED TO STAY NONSEVERE, BUT SOME THUNDER AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN MEXICO COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP THE ARK-LA-TX IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BRINGS
WIDER RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL MOVE ON OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LEAVING
MOST OF THE REGION DRY FOR FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY LIMITED TO OUR FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND ONCE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MEXICO MOVES THROUGH OK AND MO TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE THOUGHT IS THAT THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THE FORCING DOESN'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL
THEY BREACH 90 ON MONDAY.
A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP CLIMBING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. OTHER THAN SOME POP-UP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS, THINGS SHOULD STAY DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, LOTS OF CONVECTION/CATEGORY CHANGES
TODAY AND MUCH THE SAME FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR CIGS 06-12Z AND
THIS TROPICAL CONVEYOR OFF THE GULF TO REMAIN AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.
VCSH/VCTS FOR MOST, TO BE AMENDED FOR TEMPO DOWNPOURS/WIND TO
30KT. CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY 17-19Z. THE WKND LOOKS PERHAPS EVEN
BUSIER WITH ANOTHER UPTICK IN CONVECTION ANTICIPATED AS THIS
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MET WITH A WESTERLIES UPPER LOW. EARLY NEXT
WEEK BCMG ISOLD TS AS THE HEAT BUILDS UNDER A WEAK UPPER HIGH.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 87 73 87 / 20 10 10 50
MLU 68 89 73 87 / 0 10 10 70
DEQ 68 84 70 84 / 40 30 20 70
TXK 70 88 72 88 / 20 10 10 60
ELD 68 87 71 86 / 10 0 10 50
TYR 70 86 72 87 / 40 20 20 70
GGG 70 86 72 87 / 30 20 10 60
LFK 70 87 72 88 / 40 30 30 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...24
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