736
FXUS64 KSHV 210923
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
AS THURSDAY DAWNS TO FIND THE ARKLATEX EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR, PATCHY FROST MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERNMOST ZONES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
ARKANSAS FOR A FEW HOURS, TO QUICKLY MELT OFF WITH DAYTIME WARMING
UNDER ABUNDANTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE
RECENT PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE, AND BEARING IN MIND THE SIMILAR
SETUP IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON - CLEAR SKIES, DRY AIRMASS, AND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS - ELECTED TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS UP 1-2
DEGREES FROM NBM, AIMING FOR THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SOUTH.
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, DEEPENING AND ELONGATING ALONG
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS AS IT DOES SO. MEANWHILE, THE VAST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BROADEN SOMEWHAT BUT
ULTIMATELY REMAIN IN PLACE. THE POSITION OF THESE TWO FEATURES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ARKLATEX ALOFT WILL HELP LOCK IN PLACE
NORTHWEST FLOW, POTENTIALLY EVEN BECOMING DUE NORTHERLY, BUT WITH
NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ESTABLISHED PATTERN THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. THUS, FRIDAY WILL UNFOLD IN A VERY SIMILAR MANNER TO
TODAY, COOLING TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK NORTH, WITH UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST TO GREET THE DAWN, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES WHILE TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE,
MITIGATED A FEW DEGREES BY THE MORE DUE NORTHERLY FLOW.
SP
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS, THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE OUR
THIRD - AND, FOR NOW, LAST - MORNING OF BELOW AVERAGE LOWS,
CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF FRIDAY'S. OUR SITES
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD LOOK TO SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN, WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
MELTING OFF BY MIDMORNING AS TEMPERATURES TAKE AIM AT THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
NORTH AND EAST.
THIS WEEKEND WILL HERALD A REGIME CHANGE BRINGING A DRAMATIC END TO
THIS BRIEF STINT OF BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADEN AND ULTIMATELY FLATTEN OUT, WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING WHILE THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE PREVIOUS UPPER LEVEL
REGIME MAKES WAY FOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, QUICKLY BUMPING OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S SUNDAY WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SWING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY, SHARPLY DIVIDING HIGHS BETWEEN
THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST AND UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80S SOUTH AND
EAST. MEANWHILE, FUELED BY MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR LOUISIANA
ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE RETURNING IN FORCE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH, ACCOMPANIED BY LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S THROUGHOUT.
SP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH DIRECTIONS
VARYING FROM WSW TO WNW. WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING, LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WNW WINDS NEAR 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 22KTS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 42 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 68 37 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 64 30 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 68 37 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 67 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 69 40 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 68 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 69 40 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051.
LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13
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