219
FXUS64 KSHV 312345
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AS
HEAT INDICES LINGER IN THE 105 TO 109 DEGREES RANGE AREAWIDE.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR OUR SATURDAY, AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- HEAT BUILDS BACK UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER HEAT AND SOME LIKELY
HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LEANING INTO NE TX NOW WITH A GOOD GRADIENT
AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING COOL FRONT. THE BOUNDARY IS INTO CENTRAL
OK NOW WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING STILL SHOWING TRIPLE DIGITS
ALONG THE FRONT. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND THIS FRONT WILL EDGE
INTO OUR AREA ACROSS I-30 BY DAYBREAK AND OUR NORTH WILL SEE THE
BENEFITS OF THE DRIER AIR INITIALLY, BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
CO/PA SOUTH OF I-20 MAY CATCH SOME OF THE COMPRESSIONAL HEAT
POTENTIAL AND HIGHS AGAIN TOMORROW WILL BE WARM TO HOT. HOWEVER
THE NW WINDS WILL LOWER THE RH WELL AND WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT INDICES OVER 105 FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. FOR
NOW WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY IN PLACE AREAWIDE, WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON NEW MESSAGING FOR TOMORROW. THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE MAY INCLUDE
PARTIAL AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 IN AN ADVISORY, OR WE MAY JUST SEE
WHAT CLOUDS AND WIND CAN DO EARLY TOMORROW AND EVALUATE THE
SITUATION MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST AT THAT TIME ADDING AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.
THE FRONT MAY SPEED UP A BIT OVERNIGHT AS WE ARE ALREADY COMING
AROUND ALOFT ON THE WINDS. OUR SW FLOW IS SHALLOW AND W ALOFT PER
OUR 18Z SOUNDING IS APPRECIABLE AND DRYING US OUT A TAD WITH OUR
PWAT STILL 1.92". THE RADAR INITIATED SHOWERS RIGHT ON THE LINE
OF OUR CWA AND SINCE HAS MOVED FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THE WATER
VAPOR HAS A LOBE OF DRY AIR ALOFT FOR US, BUT SOME MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION FOR MUCH
OF THIS PROCESS. AND THIS IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON
AND LIMITING EVEN SLIGHTLY RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT FOR US.
EITHER WAY AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT, AS HAVE BEEN EXPECTED
ALL ALONG THIS WEEK. THE RH IS THE KICKER AND WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND AND EVEN LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE A LOBE OF THIS ARRIVING SURFACE AIRMASS AT
1018MB EARLY OVER NB/KN, MODIFYING TO 1013MB BY SUNDAY OVER THE
MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH THE CORE CENTER STAYING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. SUBTLE CHANGES IN PRESSURE CAN BRING GREAT CHANGES
TO HOW IT FEELS WITH LESS RH AND A NICE BREEZE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE DESERT SW U.S.,
BUILDING TO 600DAM OVER AZ AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK UNDER THE CORE
LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE
SHORT WAVE DENT IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE GROUND
BEFORE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE SHORT WAVE PUSH KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE
OUT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE SEEN THE
UPPER RIDGE MERGING WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND ESTABLISHING A WIDE
UPPER RIDGE FLOW, BUT THE OH VALLEY, LITTLE SHORT WAVE THAT COULD,
KEEPS THE BERMUDA RIDGE OUT OVER THE E. ATLANTIC. SO THE HEAT
WILL RETURN AND SO WILL THE HEADLINES, BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
HOT AS WE HAVE ENDURED SO FAR. THE DROUGHT UNFORTUNATELY WILL
REGAIN MUCH GROUND IN THE COMING WEEKS WITH THE CPC 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK KEEPING US ABOVE AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE ON
POPS INTO MID AUGUST. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE EXCEPT SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND FORECASTS. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THE
FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, SO VCSH WAS LEFT FOR
MANY LOCATIONS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
WORSENING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS BEHIND
THE FRONT, BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AGAIN BY TOMORROW EVENING. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 80 96 74 94 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 78 97 73 95 / 20 20 0 0
DEQ 74 92 68 92 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 79 94 72 92 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 77 94 71 91 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 80 97 73 96 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 79 96 72 95 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 76 95 72 95 / 10 40 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...57
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