481
FXUS64 KSHV 150450 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 15/06Z TAF PERIOD. THE
LAST OF THE ELEVATED CU FIELD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX
CONTINUES TO SHIFT W LATE THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD EXIT THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX BY 09Z. OTHERWISE, SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY, BEFORE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPS AGAIN
AREAWIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS WAS THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON, VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FROM MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES THUNDER MENTION IN THESE TERMINALS ATTM. AN
ELEVATED CU FIELD MAY PERSIST AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AS IT DIMINISHES
FROM E TO W ACROSS N LA/E TX, BUT OTHERWISE, SKC WILL RETURN TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT ENE OR
LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ENE 5-8KTS BY MID/LATE MORNING.
/15/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
THE ELEVATED CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM E TO W
ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED SHRA
HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES OVER S AND W SHV, BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH HERE SHORTLY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE IN WAKE OF ANOTHER VERY HOT AFTERNOON. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS CU EXITING THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY
ANCHORED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX E ACROSS AR INTO
THE TN VALLEY. MEANWHILE, SFC RIDGING WILL ALSO REMAIN ANCHORED
FROM THE OH VALLEY SW INTO N TX OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY N ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY SUNDAY. THUS, HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS AGAIN A GOOD BET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WHERE VERY DRY
AND WARM TOPSOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXIST WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE, HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
DIMINISHING CU FIELD FROM E TO W TONIGHT, WHILE ALSO TWEAKING MIN
TEMPS UP A TAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
TO REFLECT TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E TX/N LA, WITH HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR OR A BIT
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
E TX/N LA, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AND ALLOW THE MID
SHIFT TO ADDRESS ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POP ADDITIONS. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 100 74 98 / 0 10 10 0
MLU 73 100 73 99 / 0 10 10 0
DEQ 67 97 71 96 / 0 10 10 0
TXK 71 98 72 96 / 0 10 10 0
ELD 70 97 71 98 / 0 10 10 0
TYR 74 100 73 97 / 5 10 10 0
GGG 73 100 73 97 / 5 10 10 0
LFK 72 98 73 96 / 0 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
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