916
FXUS64 KSHV 111734 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1134 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY, AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES AND WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, AS
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA WITH LOW-
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK ACROSS THESE AREAS.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NEAR 1/4SM
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
ARKLATEX ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
MID 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT CONVERGES WITH THE WARMER GULF
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE WEAK WARM FRONT, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. ARCTIC AIR TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS TO AROUND 50
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTRUSION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY MORNING AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS TO THE
MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL STILL REMAIN ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO ALLOW FOR ONE MORE NIGHT OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA.
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER-TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO TEXAS. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF SW AR/N LA BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE SOME CIRRUS MAY LINGER OVER
THESE AREAS TONIGHT, A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL YIELD A RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS LOWER E TX/N LA BETWEEN 09-12Z FRIDAY. PATCHY FG
AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP E TX/N LA S OF I-20
AFTER 12Z AND MAINLY AFFECTING LFK, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING BY MID
AND LATE MORNING. VFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO THESE AREAS BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N LA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON. S WINDS 6-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z, EXCEPT 6-8KTS AT TYR/GGG. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 47 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 60 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 59 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 62 43 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 59 40 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 63 47 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 63 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 65 46 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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