802
FXUS64 KSHV 141936
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
236 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
...NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS SUMMER LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MANIFEST IN THIS
INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY PATTERN, AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY.
- ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LARGELY NON-EXISTENT, CANNOT FULLY
RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE SE CONUS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHERE HAVE YOU HEARD THIS BEFORE...WELL, IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR A
NEW NARRATIVE ON OUR CURRENT WEATHER PREDICAMENT, YOU'RE FRESH OUT
OF LUCK. INDEED THE HEAT APPEARS TO HAVE SET IN FOR THE LONG HAUL,
AND WHAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY ISOLATED TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS ESCALATING HEAT WAVE WILL BE FURTHER SOLIDIFIED AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERTOP OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SNUFF OUT NEARLY ALL CLOUD COVER, EVEN THE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CU FIELD AS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT
CLOUD FORMATION. THEREFORE, EXPECT TO SEE OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS SUMMER OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER THIS BLOCKING HIGH REGIME. ACCORDINGLY, WE HAVE PUSHED
OUT THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY WITH FURTHER EXTENSIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A CASUALTY OF THE INTENSE HEAT AND LACK RAINFALL IS RAPIDLY DRYING
SOILS AND VEGETATION THAT WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE UNDER
THIS STAGNANT PATTERN. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND,
LOOK FOR WINDS TO TREND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AS A RESULT, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SO HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL ISSUANCES LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AFTERNOON RH VALUES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION.
IN TERMS OF ANY CHANGES ON THE HORIZON, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEARLY
NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A WEAK FRONT
TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
HOLD FIRM EVEN AS IT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR VERY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES OVER SOME OF
OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES INVOF OF THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT
AND EVENTUALLY SPLIT OFF WITH THE WESTERNMOST EXTENT OF THE AXIS
SHIFTING EVEN FARTHER WEST WHILE A MUCH SMALLER RIDGE IS LEFTOVER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS COULD BE THE BREAK WE'VE ALL BEEN
WAITING FOR AS IT MAY PROVIDE AN OPENING FOR THE FIRST BONAFIDE
FRONT WE'VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME BY NEXT WEEKEND. STILL EARLY
IN THE FORECAST, BUT AT LEAST THERE'S A GLIMMER OF HOPE IF YOU'RE
TRYING TO FIND SOMETHING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
FOR THE 14/18Z TAFS, THIS AFTENROON'S CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDOWN, DISSIPATING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PUNCTUATE AN OTHERWISE CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT BEFORE SOME LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS, DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS BEFORE
GRADUALLY CLIMBING BY MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY MIST DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AIRSPACE, INCLUDING IN THE VICINITY OF
KLFK. TOMORROW'S CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY THE TAIL END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY INTO TOMORROW AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
/26/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DRYING
VEGETATION AND FUELS AS SOIL MOISTURE IS FURTHER DEPLETED IN THIS
BUILDING HEAT WAVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALREADY APPEAR TO BE UNDERWAY WITH SPOT
FIRES POPPING UP OVER THE PAST WEEK, AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL
ONLY ESCALATE FURTHER IN THIS CURRENTLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.
THEREFORE, THE THREAT OF WILDFIRE STARTS AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
GROWTH WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB HIGHER AND DAILY MIN RH DROPS LOWER INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, RESULTING IN EVEN
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC DURING THE HOURS OF PEAK HEATING.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AND MORE
LIKELY TO FOLLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WILDFIRE ACTIVITY TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS
AND FIRE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 77 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 73 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 75 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...26
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