515
FXUS64 KSHV 090531
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- ELEVATED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TOGETHER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH
8 PM.
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH AREAWIDE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND NORTH
AND EAST, LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AFTER A PROLONGED UNSETTLED AND CHALLENGING PATTERN LATELY, THE
ARKLATEX LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND QUIET TODAY AND THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WORK WEEK. WITHOUT RAIN COOLING EFFECTS, AREAWIDE HEAT WILL
PREVAIL AS HIGHS TAKE AIM AT THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. GUIDANCE HAS
LATELY UNDERESTIMATED DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT,
AND ACCOUNTING FOR RECENT PATTERNS, THESE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 105 DEGREES OR GREATER FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE IMPACTED
COUNTIES FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM TODAY. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN
TO LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE, STAY HYDRATED, AND HAVE ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING.
AS THIS WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE, THE ARKLATEX WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL STEERING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEK'S TROUGH, WHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY JUST BARELY MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S,
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
BY EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
AMPLIFY, FORMING A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RECENT
SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS THIS RIDGE AMPLIFIES, AN EMERGING
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE TILTED AS IT GRADUALLY STALLS OVER
THE APPALACHIANS. THE WESTWARD EXTEND OF LATITUDINAL AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS TROUGH WILL DETERMINE ARKLATEX WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE FORCING UPON WHICH MOISTURE IMPULSES WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT
IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH AREAWIDE RAINFALL CHANCES AT TIMES, AND THE MOST LIKELY
REPEATED IMPACTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. AT THIS
POINT, HIGHS IN THE 90S LOOK TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN PLACE, WITH THE
ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 80S IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
REPEATED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 70S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
QUICKLY DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR ATTM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
MISS OUR ELD TERMINAL AND SHOULD SLIDE JUST EAST OF OUR MLU TERMINAL
ASSUMING IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE, DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IMPACTING ANY OF OUR AIRSPACE SO WE
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
SO TO SPEAK WOULD BE PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT THE LKF, MLU OR ELD
TERMINALS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DID ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY
WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD SEE A GROWING CU
FIELD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SUSTAINED LOW
LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS SO DID ALLOW FOR SOME 16-
20KT GUSTS BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AT THE TYR
AND GGG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MOSTLY SSW TO S WINDS WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR 10KTS POST SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 96 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 95 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 95 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 97 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 96 76 95 77 / 0 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ050-051-059-070.
LA...NONE.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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