025
FXUS64 KSHV 131737 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- LINGERING LATE MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY AND SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES IN ADVANCE OF MUCH COLDER, FRIGID AIR.
- THAT COLDER, FRIGID AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- THE COLDEST AIR WILL SETTLE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO LINGER THROUGH
TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO MORNING FOG WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO
INCREASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. COULD SEE POST-FRONTAL
ELEVATED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AREAWIDE. BY DAYBREAK, TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO TO BE BE DRIVEN SOUTH WITH THE FRONT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS
AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME NEAR CALM ON SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST AREAS MITIGATING WIND
CHILL IMPACTS. HOWEVER, OVERALL AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE
ARKLATEX. FROM 10 TO 15 HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
IN TERMS OF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WIND SPEED VALUES OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. RESULTING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 DEGREES
ACROSS A FEW COUNTIES REMAIN MARGINAL FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST PACKAGES TO
DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A BROAD WEAK UPPER-TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. ZONAL
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A SEMI-UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR, ALONG AND N OF A WARM
FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N INTO LOWER E TX AND N LA S OF
I-20. IN FACT, AREAS OF FG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS WELL JUST N OF THE
FRONT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE SHV/MLU TERMINALS, BEFORE THE BNDRY
STALLS LATER IN THE DAY IN VC OF I-20. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST N OF THE FRONT, AND COULD
AFFECT MLU, BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE TO AFFECT CIGS/VSBYS OTHER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT S INTO THE REGION BY/AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN LOW MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.
WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP IN VC OF THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA, AND THUS HAVE INSERTED
VCSH MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE TYR AND SW AR TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER/DRIER AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN, WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO SCATTER
OUT/CLEAR FROM NE TO SW BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA SHORTLY AFTER THE END
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS 5KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME NNE 10-17KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS FOLLOWING THE FROPA LATER
THIS EVENING. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 38 45 25 / 20 40 0 0
MLU 63 33 40 21 / 20 50 0 0
DEQ 57 29 42 20 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 59 33 42 22 / 10 20 0 0
ELD 57 28 37 18 / 20 30 0 0
TYR 69 40 48 27 / 10 30 0 0
GGG 69 39 47 24 / 20 40 0 0
LFK 74 44 53 26 / 30 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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