316
FXUS64 KSHV 051224
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
- LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE PERSISTENT
CHILL IN THE AIR AND THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT, THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SEEN DURING THURSDAY HAS
COME TO AN END, HOWEVER, THE SATURATED AIR COUPLED WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENT
CLOUD DECK, THE ENTRENCHED COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TO THE LOWER AND MID-30S ELSEWHERE. ANY LINGERING RAINFALL OR
DRIZZLE SHOULD COME TO AN END ON FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE
MID-50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES
A MORE NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST, ALLOWING A ROBUST
RETURN FLOW OF WARMER, DRIER AIR. THIS PATTERN CHANGE INDICATES A
STRONG WARMING TREND, PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
THE REGION TO EXPERIENCE HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
WE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
FOR THE 05/12Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME TEMPORARY LIFTING BY 05/15Z-06/00Z BEFORE
CIGS DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR FOR MOST OF THE AIRSPACE AFTER 06/06Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VIS/CIGS TO QUICKLY REDEVELOP. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 41 60 49 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 48 40 57 46 / 0 10 10 0
DEQ 48 30 56 38 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 49 36 57 44 / 0 10 0 10
ELD 46 33 55 41 / 0 10 0 10
TYR 51 41 61 45 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 50 39 62 45 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 52 42 66 47 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...16
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