481
FXUS64 KSHV 080514
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL RETURN TO THE
ARK-LA-TX THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE DROPPING AS RECENT FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO PLACE LANDFALL FURTHER EAST ON THE GULF COAST.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THINGS
WARM AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE ARK-LA-TX TO START
THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC POINTS OF INTEREST TO
COVER. SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
BACK INTO THE LOW 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE TROPICS, RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS ISAIAS
FURTHER INTENSIFYING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
MOBILE BAY TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. NHC CONTINUES
TO FAVOR MODELS DEPICTING AN EASTERN TRACK SUCH AS THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND. OTHER MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND EURO ARE FAVORING A TRACK
FURTHER WESTWARD, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM
REACHING THE ARK-LA-TX. TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
AND UPDATED WPC QPF, I'VE PULLED BACK POPS FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF I-
49 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR UNCERTAINTY IN ISAIAS'S TRACK, BUT THE CHANCE OF
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OVER THE REGION SEEMS TO BE DWINDLING AS WE
APPROACH LANDFALL.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE BRIEFLY KNOCKED BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
80S BY ISAIAS ON SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK IN OVER THE
GULF STATES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE RAIN ON THE HORIZON TO BRING RELIEF.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME 5-7KFT MOISTURE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
OUR I-20 TERMINAL LOCATIONS THAT COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THU BUT AGAIN,
ANY CEILINGS WOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. LIKEWISE, WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME INCREASING THIN CIRRUS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE AS WELL DURING THE DAY THU. LOOK FOR MOSTLY NE WINDS WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 10KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 91 69 85 / 0 0 0 30
MLU 63 91 65 81 / 0 0 30 70
DEQ 62 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 63 91 65 86 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 61 92 63 83 / 0 0 10 50
TYR 66 90 67 88 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 64 91 65 87 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 66 90 67 88 / 0 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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