653
FXUS64 KSHV 161114
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA SUNDAY, A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE. AT
THE SAME TIME, SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO RAMP UP IN RESPONSE TO
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS HAS
RESULTED SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE THIS, THE LOW-LEVEL LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY. THIS IS KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA, DESPITE RADAR RETURNS FROM THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW
THIS EVENING. SOME PROGS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME SLIGHT POPS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THE LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. BUT, A FEW SPRINKLES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WE
SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH THE WINDS. THIS WILL
YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH MORNING LOWS FALLING AROUND THE
70 DEGREE MARK AREAWIDE. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED, BUT
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, AS THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
ON SUNDAY, WE INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES, AS SOME WEAK
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO OUR
LOUISIANA ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK, LONG-TERM PROGS SUGGEST EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL BECOME MORE
FREQUENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, RESULTING IN DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN ADDITION TO THIS, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK, ENHANCING RAIN
CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION
REMAINS IN THE LONG-TERM, BUT WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK, DAILY RAIN CHANCES
SEEM REASONABLE, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MAYBE 15Z BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT. WE ARE TRENDING WITH LOSING THE
HIGH AC AND CIRRUS AS WELL FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 10-16KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25KTS
ACROSS SOME TERMINALS. LOOK FOR INCREASING CIRRUS LATER TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 72 89 75 / 0 0 20 10
MLU 90 68 88 72 / 0 0 30 10
DEQ 88 69 87 71 / 10 0 20 40
TXK 91 71 90 73 / 0 0 20 20
ELD 90 68 87 71 / 0 0 20 10
TYR 90 73 89 74 / 0 0 20 20
GGG 90 72 90 74 / 0 0 20 20
LFK 90 74 90 76 / 0 10 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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