621
FXUS64 KSHV 052307
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
607 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S, AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOME SITES SOUTH AND
EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HIT THE LOWER 90S BY MID TO LATE THIS
WEEK.
- THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKLATEX MAY SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THIS WEEK WILL FIND THE ARKLATEX WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
LEVEL STEERING MECHANISMS, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AWAY NORTH OF THE
OZARKS, RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND A FEW ATTEMPTED
TROUGHS OR LOWS WHICH ULTIMATELY DON'T END UP AMOUNTING TO MUCH.
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE, AND
IN THE NEAR TERM, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN, WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AND EVEN UPPER 50S NORTH AT DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING WITH US AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL DO NOTHING TO RESTRICT HEATING, HOWEVER,
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LEAP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TOMORROW, AND THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WOULD BE FOLLOWING SUIT, ASIDE FROM A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOONS. MORNING LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGHOUT.
THROUGHOUT THIS QUIET WEEK IN THE ARKLATEX, ALL EYES WILL BE ON AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SIGNALS ARE INDICATING
INCREASING CHANCES THAT THIS LOW WILL ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK, WITH STEERING IN THE FORM OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW AROUND A BERMUDA HIGH DIRECTING IT NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS
THE U.S. GULF COAST. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WITH
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST, BUT PREPAREDNESS IS ALWAYS ADVISABLE. IF THE
SYSTEM'S SUSTAINED WINDS REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (39+ MPH) IT
WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME "ISAIAS." AS FOR ITS TRACK, THE 12Z GFS
FAVORS LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LA/MS/AL COAST. PLEASE TAKE
THESE EARLY PROJECTIONS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, AND BE ATTENTIVE TO
FORTHCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP LARGELY TO
OUR EAST, IMPACTS TO THE ARKLATEX LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED.
AGAIN, BEAR IN MIND THAT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH SUBTLE DEVIATIONS
IN SYSTEM TRACK, ETC. AS FOR RIGHT NOW, SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SATURDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF INCURSIONS INTO DEEP EAST
TEXAS, POPS KEEP GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE,
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 07/00Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS ON TUESDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 63 89 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 54 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 58 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 58 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 62 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 60 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 65 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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