568
FXUS64 KSHV 060047 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
747 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SCHEDULED
SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO
INDOORS!
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
- PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. SUMMERTIME HEAT SAFETY
PLANS SHOULD BE REVIEWED AND READIED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EXPECTING THE RECENT PERIODIC WET PATTERN TO RE-INTENSIFY THIS
WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PIVOTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ARKLATEX. DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY IS
DIRECTED MORE OVER WESTERN ZONES OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY TOMORROW, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER. NORTHWARD DRIFTING AND PROPAGATING
CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 49 AND SHOULD ALSO MAINLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE (I.E.,
DYING OFF GRADUALLY IN THE WAKE OF DAYTIME HEATING). HOWEVER, THE
FIRST TASTE OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND THETAE ADVECTION
ARRIVING VERY LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES MAY SPUR SOME INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THERE JUST BEFORE,
OR AROUND, DAYBREAK.
AS MENTIONED, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FOUR
STATE REGION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AT ITS PEAK. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
(AND ALSO SHIFT-OF-TAILS) SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NW
OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR FOR BOTH DAYS, WHICH IS WHERE WPC
IS FOCUSING WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES (WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE) AND WHERE THEY ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, THESE SAME AREAS HAVE BEEN
GETTING MORE CONSISTENT DELUGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOWERING. BUT NOT
JUST NW ZONES WILL BE SEEING PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
ALTHOUGH RAIN TOTALS ELSEWHERE WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 INCH
TO 1 INCH RANGE FOR THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AGAIN, LOCALIZED HIGHER
TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FLASH FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND
WPC'S MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS THAT CONDITIONAL
RISK. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, THERE IS ENOUGH
COMBINATION OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO, BUT PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC
HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW NORTHWEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR, BUT THE VERY RECENT DAY 2 UPDATE
PULLED THAT THREAT JUST WEST OF OUR AREA.
NWP GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT IN PULLING THE DISTURBANCE IN DEEP
SW FLOW OFF TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT, SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FOLLOW SUIT AND TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, ANTICIPATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION AND
GREATLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH DAY IN THIS PERIOD, BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THE
BULK OF NEXT WORK WEEK. ELEVATED HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD RESULT IN
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AND ONE OR TWO DAYS OF NEEDING HEAT ADVISORIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. UNCERTAINTY BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS
INHERENTLY LOWER, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE RIDGE
POTENTIALLY BREAKING DOWN QUICKLY BY NEXT FRIDAY, WHICH COULD
BRING ABOUT A RETURN TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
/50/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH VARIOUS CU/AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT
NNW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN LA AND MUCH OF E TX. HAVE MAINTAINED
VCSH FOR THE E TX TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH TEMPO THUNDER
MENTION AT LFK AND TYR, BEFORE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 07Z OVER E
TX/NCNTRL LA AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR BY OR BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AREAWIDE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND BECOME MVFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING, ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS E TX/ADJACENT SW AR, AND AREAWIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHRA
DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAVE PREVAILED VCSH FOR THE TERMINALS FOR NOW AS
THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED AGAIN, WITH TEMPO THUNDER MENTION MORE
APPROPRIATE WHICH CAN BE ADDED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES ONCE
TIMING/WIND/VSBY IMPACTS ARE BETTER KNOWN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BY MID AND LATE EVENING, BEFORE LOW MVFR/IFR
CIGS RETURN LATE. LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SE 5-7KTS
AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 86 73 88 / 10 50 50 60
MLU 74 87 74 87 / 10 70 20 80
DEQ 70 82 70 82 / 30 90 80 80
TXK 72 86 72 86 / 20 60 50 80
ELD 72 84 72 85 / 10 50 30 80
TYR 72 85 73 87 / 60 70 30 50
GGG 72 86 72 89 / 30 60 40 70
LFK 72 86 73 89 / 40 60 30 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...50
AVIATION...15
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