803
FXUS64 KSHV 202029
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
229 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY TOMORROW.
- BY FRIDAY, A COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN
COMBINATION WITH A STORM WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEKEND.
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER, INCLUDING MULTIPLE DAYS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, WILL LIKELY CREATE SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO
TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE CHANNELING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW (A CLASSIC THEME THAT WILL RETURN
AGAIN THROUGH THIS MONTH). THIS INITIAL BATCH OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE UNEVENTFUL 0.5-1 INCH TOTALS INTO
THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION EVOLVES BY FRIDAY AS AN ROBUST
ARCTIC AIRMASS (1040MB+) PROCEEDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US,
INTRODUCING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER INTO OUR AREA.
THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION/INTRUSION WILL
MAINTAIN A WINTER WEATHER EVENT STARTING ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
OVERRUNNING DISTURBANCE FUNNELS PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE DENSE, COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
SYNOPTIC ARRANGEMENTS CONTINUE TO BE IN A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING
FASHION WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ATOP AN ARCTIC AIR MASS, BUT THE
CONCERN REMAINS WITH OVERPERFORMANCE POTENTIAL AS TRENDS AND
INDICATIONS ARE FOR MORE OF A WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN THREAT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF ARE IN PLAY DUE TO
THE ENHANCED FLOW AND SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (PWATS
OF 0.6-0.8+ IN. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY). RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
ARE SCHEDULED TO SAMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE TO REFINE MODEL ENSEMBLES
AND BOOST FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THAT SAID, FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE STEADILY, NOW MEDIUM-HIGH TO HIGH
(70-80%) ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF
THE THE DISTRIBUTION BEING A WINTRY MIX SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITHIN THIS
WINTRY MIX, SOME AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE LIKELY
(70% CHANCE OF >0.1 INCH). THE HIGHEST REMAINING AMOUNTS OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ARE STILL WITH THE MERIDIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES.
SOME CONCERN IS NOW BUILDING FOR PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO INFRASTRUCTURE ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY
AS A RESULT, AND LONGER-TERM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE ACTIVATED NOW
AHEAD OF FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE URGENT NATURE OF THIS FORECAST,
A WINTER WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
FOR THE 20/18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOWER CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN AHEAD OF SOME LIGHT RAIN. CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 60 49 60 / 30 80 50 30
MLU 40 57 48 58 / 10 90 80 50
DEQ 35 56 34 53 / 60 70 10 20
TXK 42 56 44 55 / 50 80 20 20
ELD 37 54 42 53 / 20 90 50 30
TYR 49 61 49 62 / 40 80 20 20
GGG 46 60 47 61 / 30 80 40 20
LFK 50 64 53 66 / 20 80 60 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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