117
FXUS64 KSHV 242312
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
612 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND GROWING RAINFALL DEFICIT
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH.
- A PATTERN CHANGE STILL REMAINS ON THE HORIZON WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FINAL WEEKEND
OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TX COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND HUDSON BAY. UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, A
NOTABLE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN EXISTS, WITH A STRONG BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES SKIRTING THE US/CANADA BORDER WITH SEVERAL DISTINCT AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THE FLOW NEAR THE
BC COAST AND THE OTHER IN SASKATCHEWAN. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM,
A LARGE CLOSED LOW IS DEPICTED ACROSS THE SW US IN THE AZ/CA
VICINITY, WITH BROAD SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WHERE ACTIVE WEATHER RESIDES.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP A
FIRM HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE US EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
ANOTHER WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS PERSISTENT
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, WITH HUMIDITY BEING TEMPERED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS, FIRE WEATHER REMAINS
ANCHORED AS THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND ONGOING SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. CONTINUING TO FOLLOW ALL FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS WILL
HELP PREVENT ADDITIONAL WILDFIRES FROM DEVELOPING. SUNDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN ON MONDAY AS THE UPSTREAM
PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW US
FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT, CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT, ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH RIDGE INFLUENCE ALOFT.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK,
BECOMING REPLACED BY SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY
SIGNAL AT LEAST A TEMPORARY CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE REGION TO
PREVENT RAIN CHANCES FROM RETURNING. THAT SAID, BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN US, PLACING THE
FOUR STATE REGION IN A BETTER SW FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WOULD INDICATE A PATTERN SHIFT, ALLOWING FRONTAL
SYSTEMS A BETTER CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH
DISTURBANCES ALOFT. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS PROBABLE THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND. THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARD
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH, WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
DEGREE OF ACTIVITY WITHIN THE UNSETTLED SW FLOW PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM. IN ADDITION, IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR HOW WELL HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ERODE OR MIGRATE EAST. DESPITE THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, IT AT LEAST APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AT LEAST TEMPER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 25/00Z TAF CYCLE. CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. LIGHT SE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE (< 5 MPH) TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY E BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
PEAKING AROUND 5-8 MPH. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.
KOVACIK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE EVENT
OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 48 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 51 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 53 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 56 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 52 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 54 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page