710
FXUS64 KSHV 040000
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
700 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS, BEFORE
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.
- FOLLOWING A REDUCTION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, A
RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY SE THROUGH NRN
INTO SE TX AND THE FAR NW GULF, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION NOW
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN THE
DEEP TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. WHILE MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO
2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT BE AS VOLATILE AS IT WAS TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. DID HAVE TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE CNTRL LA/DEEP E TX AREAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE HREF MEMBERS INCREASING CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS, WITH THE WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT EXPECTED
TO BEGIN DRIFTING N TONIGHT ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST STATES, AS IT
RECENTERS ITSELF INTO THE TN VALLEY. WHILE THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING, THE
VARIOUS 12Z PROGS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP LATE OVER AT LEAST THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA, ALONG H925-700 THETA-E RIDGING THAT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA. NBM POPS TONIGHT REALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD REMAIN GARBAGE FOR OUR AREA, WITH THE POP FORECAST
HAVING TO BE REDRAWN TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND CURRENT
THINKING, AS THEY WERE INCREASED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE GIVEN
THE GOOD MODEL AND QPF CONSENSUS. DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY
THURSDAY GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, TAPERING TO
MOSTLY CHANCE POPS FARTHER E, AS THE RESIDUAL TROUGH AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO OPEN WHILE BISECTING THE REGION FROM N TO S ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF INSOLATION, WITH MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE
WEAK TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ILL-DEFINED, AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES
WORKED OVER FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA OVER THE
MUCH DRIER NBM, TO RESPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AS WELL AS THE
WEAKNESS OVERHEAD AND THE CONTINUED THETA-E RIDGING. SHOULD SEE A
BIT MORE OF A REPRIEVE IN CONVECTION FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGING
TO OUR E DRIFTS FARTHER S INTO THE SE STATES AND FLATTENS, WITH
ATTENDANT SFC RIDGING OVER THIS SAME AREA ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TO POSSIBLY MIX W INTO SRN AR/PORTIONS OF N LA THROUGH
THE DAY. THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN ZONES,
BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SRN BAJA, WHICH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SWING
THROUGH NRN OLD MX THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EMERGING OUT
OVER FAR W TX FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
WEAK LOW/TROUGH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SUGGEST THAT INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST INLAND OF THE SE TX/S LA COASTS SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING N INTO E TX/CNTRL LA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
BNDRY SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS IT LIFTS N THROUGH FAR W TX INTO THE TX S PLAINS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AMONGST THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS, NOT QUITE CONFIDENT TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS JUST YET
EXCEPT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA, AND THUS HAVE TAPERED POPS
DOWN TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SHOULD SEE BETTER
CONVECTION COVERAGE SUNDAY ONCE THE TROUGH EJECTS NE INTO KS, THUS
TAPPING A STRONGER/DEEPER SSWRLY FLOW TO ENHANCE THE DAYTIME
SEABREEZE. RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGH WITH THIS OPENING TROUGH SHOULD
STILL FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION, WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PROGGED TO KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THOUGH THAT THE
RIDGING MAY BECOME MORE "DIRTY," WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT, WHILE MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, LATE DAY CONVECTION RUNNING ALONG AND
S OF I-20 W/ TEMPOS FOR TS/E15G25KT. WE COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTION
TO VSBY, BUT GENERALLY FEELS LIKE A SEA BREEZE PUSH AS OUR LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE ALL E OUT OF A SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDALTANTIC
STATES. THE RECENT WEAK FROPA IS LIFTING BACK N GOING FORWARD WITH
MORE CONVECTION LIKELY ON THURS/FRI. WE CAN EXPECT A BUSIER WKND
AS THE EASTERLIES MEET AN UPPER LOW ON THE WESTERLIES, WITH A
PANCAKE OF LIKELY CONVECTION COVERAGE AND NUM GUSTY DOWNPOURS.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 83 70 88 / 40 60 20 20
MLU 71 86 67 89 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 70 81 69 86 / 20 70 20 20
TXK 71 85 71 89 / 30 70 20 20
ELD 69 84 66 87 / 20 30 10 10
TYR 71 84 72 88 / 30 60 20 30
GGG 71 83 70 88 / 30 60 20 20
LFK 70 84 69 88 / 50 60 30 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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