931
FXUS64 KSHV 211852 RRA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
152 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, DEPENDING ON IF A PROPER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS.
- ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL SINK DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MS RIVER VALLEY BRINGING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TO MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN RATES WITH THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LOWER THAN WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH, ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF ANY SHOWERS
CAN TRAIN OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS, BUT FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY RISK TODAY. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND LEAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT, KEEPING SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
CAMS ARE HINTING AT AN MCS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEASTERN
OK/NORTHWESTERN AR OVERNIGHT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE SEEMS TO BE
AGREEMENT THAT THIS MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH AR TOWARD THE ARK-LA-MISS
BY MID MORNING. THE MORE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE ARK-LA-TX INVOLVES
A POSSIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS MCS MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND BEING THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SEVERE AND FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALL THIS BEING SAID, THIS WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT ACTUALLY HAPPENING, WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WOULD INITIATE THE INITIAL MCS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND SOUTHERN AR AND STALL FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS COULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENT OF THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP, BUT THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA IS THE CURRENT THINKING. WHILE THIS
FRONT IS SET UP, TEMPERATURES ON THE SOUTH SIDE WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB FROM THE LOW 90S TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. AREAS ON THE NORTH
SIDE WILL LARGELY STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES BACK UP NORTH, WE
WILL BE BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
FOR THE 21/18Z TAF UPDATE, GRADUAL VFR IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS REMAINING VCTS/-SHRA
EXITS THE AIRSPACE TO THE NORTH BY 22/00Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 22/09Z-15Z, WHILE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT OR NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY, BUT MAY BE NEEDED
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THE APPROACHING
COMPLEX OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 93 77 92 / 10 10 20 10
MLU 77 93 77 93 / 0 20 40 20
DEQ 75 87 73 88 / 60 60 80 60
TXK 77 91 76 91 / 40 50 60 40
ELD 76 90 74 90 / 20 40 60 30
TYR 78 92 77 94 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 77 93 77 93 / 10 10 20 0
LFK 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
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