802
FXUS64 KSHV 031158 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- EDOUARD'S REMNANTS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT LOOKS TO RETURN AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE THE IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD,
WHICH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR HENDERSON COUNTY IN EAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR MUCH OF DEEP EAST TEXAS
FROM ANGELINA, SAN AUGUSTINE, NACOGDOCHES, AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AND NOW THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SMITH COUNTY. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE
THING OF CONCERN, A HANDFUL OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
CAME IN SHOWING SOME BULLSEYES OF AROUND 4-6 INCHES AND ISOLATED
POCKETS HIGHER ACROSS CHEROKEE, ANGELINA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES
INTO FWD AND HGXS FORECAST AREAS. AS A RESULT, I HAVE MAINTAINED
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SO
FAR THE GROUND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SOAK UP THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAINFALL TODAY, WITH MINIMAL FLOODING IMPACTS ACTUALLY OBSERVED.
WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE LESS.
HOPEFULLY MODELS ARE ONTO SOMETHING BY KICKING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ONCE THE RAINFALL FROM EDOUARD END, WE WILL MOVE BACK INTO A MORE
REGIONAL PATTERN WHERE WE WILL SEE MORE SUMMERTIME HEAT AND DAILY
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
ANCHORED OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN, WITH RIDGING
REDEVELOPING FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
HELP OUR AREA REACH BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASING EVER SO SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAINING WARM WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. I DON'T THINK WE
WILL QUITE MAKE IT TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE
CLOSE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. BEING
THAT IT REMAINS BORDERLINE FOR TODAY, I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING GOOD THAT
WE WILL NEED ONE LATER THIS WEEKEND OR INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN, WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. IN OTHER
WORDS, THERE IS NOT A PARTICULARLY EXCITING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE
WAITING IN THE WINGS. INSTEAD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY GOVERNED BY THE DAILY HEATING CYCLE, WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION FAVORED PRIMARILY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
I-20. OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
EDOUARD, WPC CONTINUES TO ONLY SUGGEST ANOTHER TENTH TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS ANY PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
OVERALL TAKEAWAY...EDOUARD EXITS THE STAGE TO THE LEFT, THE RIDGE
REBUILDS, THE THERMOMETER REMEMBERS WHAT SUMMER IS SUPPOSED TO
FEEL LIKE, AND THE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM MACHINE GRADUALLY CRANKS
BACK UP. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E
TX/WRN LA, NEAR AND JUST N AND E OF THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD
CENTERED BETWEEN DFW AND TRL. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR
AND JUST E OF THE REMNANT CENTER OVER ECNTRL AND DEEP E TX, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TYR/LFK TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING, AND AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT BACK W. THUS, MVFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HERE, WITH THE MVFR
CIGS FARTHER N AND E EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND AFFECT THE SHV
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E
ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX/WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT N BEFORE
DIMINISHING PRIOR TO 00Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES VCTS/VCSH
MENTION IN FOR THE GGG/SHV TERMINALS ATTM. SOME RESIDUAL CU/AC MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY FG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP E
TX/WCNTRL LA, AND MAY BE NEEDED IN THE LFK TAF IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. S WINDS 5-11KTS TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO
25KTS AT TYR, WILL BECOME SSE 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHILE WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED, SOME ASSISTANCE
MIGHT BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 74 96 75 / 20 0 10 10
MLU 97 75 96 74 / 10 10 40 10
DEQ 94 70 96 70 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 94 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 97 73 97 72 / 10 0 30 10
TYR 87 73 92 74 / 60 10 10 0
GGG 92 72 95 73 / 30 0 10 10
LFK 89 72 94 73 / 50 10 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ136-149-150-152-
165-166.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...15
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