795
FXUS64 KSHV 171047
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING OF RISK OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THIS EVENING FEATURES A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US, WITH BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OR
ARGUABLY MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE US. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH ITS RIDGE INFLUENCE
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
FARTHER UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE, A CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN TEXAS.
CLEAR SKIES TO BEGIN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY GIVE
WAY TO A BLANKET OF LOW COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS, ALONG WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ON SUNDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, HELPING TO DEEPEN THE WESTERN US LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS
WILL SUBJECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
DEEPER SW FLOW ALOFT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
AMIDST CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOW 70S, MAKING FOR MUCH
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE
GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER, A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND CARRY A THREAT FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL
HAIL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE HUMID AND
WARM, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES!).
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN BE TRENDING MUCH MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND EXPOSES THE REGION TO DEEP
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AMIDST CONTINUED
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE LOCAL AREA WILL LACK A SUFFICIENT
FORCING MECHANISM FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON MONDAY, ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN STILL BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LIKELY REACHING THE FOUR
STATE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER
COULD MATERIALIZE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THEREAFTER, INTO THE MID AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION. PERTURBATIONS MOVING WITHIN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT COULD SERVE TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND SET UP AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO WHERE
AND WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL, BUT NEVERTHELESS, THIS COULD
PROVIDE A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
23
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS. LIKEWISE AS EXPECTED,
WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NE TX, SE OK AND SW AR. AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING,
LOOK FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO NW LA. HAVE
PREVAILED VCSH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE SHV AND TXK TERMINALS. FURTHER EAST, WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
FORCING, WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON VCTS AT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK AND SHV TERMINALS. LOOK FOR THE
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE
AID OF MIXING, LOOK FOR SUSTAINED SSE WINDS NEAR 10-16KTS WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 22-30KTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 76 90 75 / 20 10 10 20
MLU 89 73 90 73 / 30 10 30 10
DEQ 86 72 87 71 / 30 30 40 30
TXK 90 75 91 73 / 20 10 20 30
ELD 88 72 88 72 / 30 10 10 30
TYR 89 76 89 74 / 20 20 10 30
GGG 90 76 89 74 / 20 20 10 20
LFK 90 77 89 75 / 20 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page