055
FXUS64 KSHV 070656
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR JULY WILL HOLD COURT ACROSS
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINTAINING ELEVATED
RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH LOW-END SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING RISKS.
- THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF OUR REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR
REGION BY LATE WEEK, WHICH POINTS TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE
INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDED A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE WARNINGS AND THE
SUBSEQUENT STORM DAMAGE REPORTS TO FOLLOW. THE PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR
THIS ONGOING EVENT IS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH, LARGELY
INDUCED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXES FLANKED TO THE EAST AND WEST WITHIN
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH LITTLE CHANGE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DRIFTS EVER SLOWLY
ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN THAT CONVECTION IS STILL
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY FURTHER DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN. THIS INCLUDES THE THREAT OF MORE SEVERE
STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN AREAS WITH TRAINING
CONVECTION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN PRIMARY FOR THE SEVERE RISK
WITH LARGE HAIL STILL A SECONDARY THREAT. EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NE AWAY FROM OUR REGION AND WITH THAT GOES THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
MORE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RESULTING PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR
UPPER RIDGING TO BECOME MUCH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE DURING THIS LATE
WEEK TIMEFRAME, YIELDING HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NUDGE BACK TOWARD THE
MID 90S AT A MINIMUM WITH SOME ISOLATED UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BY THIS WEEKEND, MORE RECENT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OUR REGION FALLING BETWEEN THE PAIR OF COMPETING RIDGES
ONCE AGAIN. THE STRONGER RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO BUILD MORE NE
FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE ROCKIES WHILE THE BERMUDA
RIDGE TO OUR SE HOVERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF FL NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION EFFECTIVELY IN ANOTHER AREA OF INDUCED
TROUGHING WITH RAIN CHANCES TRENDING HIGHER BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO EASE BACK JUST SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
DESPITE A WELL WORKED OVER LOWER ATMOSPHERE, WE CONTINUE TO SEE
RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE, MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND COULD IMPACT ALL I-20 TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. FOLLOWED THE LATEST HREF OUTPUT CLOSELY CONCERNING
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WHICH SUGGESTS SCATTERED MORNING
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOSTLY CONFINED TO TERMINALS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. BELIEVE WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION WHICH WOULD OF COURSE
RESULT IN TEMPO LOWER VSBY AND CEILINGS. AGAIN, LOOK FOR MOSTLY
VARIABLE WINDS NEAR OR BELOW 10KTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXCEPT MUCH
STRONGER AND GUSTY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS COULD RETURN
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING, IF NOT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 91 74 93 77 / 60 40 40 10
MLU 92 74 93 76 / 40 30 40 10
DEQ 91 70 93 74 / 30 20 20 10
TXK 93 72 95 76 / 30 20 20 10
ELD 90 71 92 74 / 20 20 30 10
TYR 94 75 95 78 / 50 20 30 0
GGG 93 74 94 77 / 60 30 40 0
LFK 94 75 95 76 / 30 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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