519
FXUS64 KSHV 301713
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1213 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY WITH INCREASING SE WINDS
AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A LOW-END RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR W/NW ZONES BY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND USHER IN THE COOLEST
AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON BY THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
ONE MORE DAY TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S IS EXPECTED
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEPARTS TO THE EAST, SIGNALING A COMING
PATTERN SHIFT FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE. IN THE MEANTIME, TODAY'S WEATHER
CONCERN CENTERS ON THE ONGOING FIRE DANGER AS HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW AFTERNOON RH IN THE 30-45% RANGE. ADD TO
THAT THE INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY, AND YOU HAVE THE RECIPE FOR
RAPID FIRE STARTS AND WILDFIRE GROWTH FROM ANY FLAMES OR SPARKS
DUE TO CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND PARCHED VEGETATION. THEREFORE, A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE MUCH ADVERTISED
PATTERN SHIFT REFERENCED ABOVE WILL BEGIN TO MANIFEST AS TROPICAL
PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS. THE SURGING MOISTURE PLUME WILL
QUICKLY BE ABSORBED BY AN EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, GRADUALLY SPREADING
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SET UP INVOF OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO
OUR WEST BUT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS OUR NORTHWESTERNMOST ZONES
IN NE TX AND SE OK WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE EXPANDING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, THE THREAT OF SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY OCCUPIES THE SAME AREAS IN NE TX AND SE OK ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, REMNANT MOISTURE
WILL THEN INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR INCREASING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY CLEARS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEN A
STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY TO USHER ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
FORECAST THINKING HASN'T REALLY DEVIATED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THEY STILL APPEAR TO RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF NE TX AND SE OK WHILE
AREAS FARTHER EAST IN SW AR AND NORTH LA ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY OF THESE AREAS, AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN FLUX
GIVEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE, THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY
RAIN AXIS MAY SHIFT DEEPER INTO NE TX AND SE OK BEFORE LEAVING A
SHARP GRADIENT OF MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. THEREFORE, A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY INFILTRATE
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON
FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. BY TONIGHT, SOME MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR OUR
EAST TEXAS TERMINALS, AND KSHV. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME DROPS IN
VISIBILITY FOR KLFK AND KTYR. ALTHOUGH THE DROPS IN VISIBILITY FOR
KTYR WILL BE BECAUSE OF THE CHANCE OF RAIN THAT WILL INCREASE
AROUND 11/15Z WHERE I HAVE INTRODUCED -RA. I DON'T THINK THE RAIN
WILL PUSH ANY FURTHER EAST, SO I HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS FOR TOMORROW. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE
MOVING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD, SO THERE IS SOME LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT WILL BE INTRODUCED AT SOME ADDITIONAL TERMINALS GOING
FORWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUST AT TIMES TODAY, WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS, AND THIS COULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 93 73 88 / 0 20 40 50
MLU 71 95 72 93 / 0 20 10 50
DEQ 71 89 66 82 / 10 70 80 80
TXK 73 91 69 84 / 0 40 70 80
ELD 70 94 70 89 / 0 20 30 60
TYR 74 91 71 83 / 10 60 80 80
GGG 73 93 70 86 / 0 50 60 70
LFK 72 91 71 88 / 0 50 50 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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