833
FXUS64 KSHV 221220
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
620 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
HAS ALLOWED FOR WEAK ECHOES TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE TEENS, EVAPORATION HAS PREVENTED PRECIP
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA LATER TODAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO SATURATE IN THE LOWER-LEVELS.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL
SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL ALLOW FOR FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20 OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST TEXAS, AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS, THE CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE
HIGHEST POP VALUES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE.
ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA WITH TEMPERATUES FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S. /05/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ON MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
EAST INTO FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH MIDWEEK PROVIDING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE ARKLATEX
CONTRIBUTING TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND INTO THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING TO AVERAGE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
ON THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE, BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR LOW DECKS 3-5KFT FOR ALL ATTM.
KSHV RADAR IS SHOWING SOME -DZ/-RA, BUT DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS
EVAPORATING MOST. TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND TRACE AMOUNTS WILL
NOT BE AN ISSUE. WINDS KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH W 5-40KT FOR
CLIMB AND W 50-90KT FOR FLS. LOW DECKS MAY BREAK UP WITH SOME
HEATING, BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS PILE IN AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR/VFR EARLY ON SUN. W/ -RA/BR EXPECTED ALONG AND S
OF I-20. SPARSE COVERAGE FURTHER TO THE N. WARMER & DRY THIS WEEK.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 36 53 38 / 0 20 40 0
MLU 51 34 49 35 / 10 20 40 0
DEQ 49 28 57 33 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 50 32 56 37 / 0 10 20 0
ELD 51 30 54 33 / 0 10 20 0
TYR 50 37 56 40 / 0 30 20 0
GGG 51 36 54 37 / 0 30 40 0
LFK 48 40 53 40 / 30 70 60 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page