592
FXUS64 KSHV 211023
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
523 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A
CONCERN.
- ALSO, AN ISOLATED STRONG THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE PASSAGE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION ALONG A PROMINENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COOL FRONT, LEFT STABLE AND MORE
QUIETER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WE SAW
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, AS IT HAS STALLED ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. THAT RAIN HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED, BUT SHORT-TERM
PROGS ARE HINTING AT SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. BUT, WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
AREA, CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE, UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH WET
SOILS STILL IN PLACE, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REGION.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY, THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERATE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WE ALSO EXPECT THE STALLED FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL ALSO BE A
FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY, GENERALLY DUE TO THE PROLONGED LENGTH OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE MOVE INTO
NEXT WEEK, LONG-TERM PROGS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OFF AND MEANDER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT STALLING ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. WITH CONSECUTIVE DAYS AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS KEEPING THE RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. AND EVEN THOUGH NO
ORGANIZE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
STARTING TO SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS N LA INTO S AR THIS
MORNING BUT THICKER CIRRUS IS KEEPING LOWER CEILINGS FROM FORMING
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS ATTM. THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER SO
WILL BE PREVAILING A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY COMING UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID ADJUST TIMING OF VCTS AND TEMPO
TSRA ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE BASED ON LATEST HRRR DATA WITH GREATEST
STORM COVERAGE LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DID TRANSITION CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION BACK DOWN TO
IFR AND LOW MVFR HEIGHTS NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TO CONCLUDE THE
24HR TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE BEGINNING NE TO ENE THIS MORNING WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. THOSE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER
AROUND TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
OF COURSE BE MUCH STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 68 84 68 / 60 70 40 30
MLU 84 68 84 68 / 70 70 60 30
DEQ 81 63 81 63 / 20 70 50 40
TXK 82 66 83 66 / 20 70 40 30
ELD 81 64 82 65 / 40 70 60 30
TYR 82 67 84 68 / 60 70 30 30
GGG 83 67 84 68 / 60 70 40 30
LFK 83 68 86 70 / 60 60 40 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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