286  
FXUS64 KSHV 212325  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
625 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 21/00Z TAFS...THE CU FIELD THAT WAS SEEN THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 IS QUICKLY VANISHING THIS  
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. LEFT BEHIND ARE ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH  
CLOUDS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR IS FILTERING  
IN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. STILL HAVE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG  
BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK  
THAT COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO KLFK. /33/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE FANFARE CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW SE  
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN A N/NW WIND  
SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS, THERE IS LITTLE ELSE TO NOTE  
WITH THIS FRONT AS DAYTIME AMBIENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LARGELY  
UNAFFECTED WHERE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN  
ZONES. ALONG I-20 AND POINTS SOUTH, HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY  
SPIKED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 90S  
HAVE BEEN NOTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A HEALTHY CU FIELD IN  
PLACE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY THIS EVENING IN  
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND  
MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE  
LOWER 60S MAY HANG ON BEFORE FROPA LATER FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE  
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S  
ON FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO  
STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON LATE FRIDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO  
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, EXPECT CLOUDS TO  
BEGIN RETURNING ACROSS OUR SW ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.  
 
/19/  
 
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE  
PERIOD BUT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY. OTHERWISE, A DEEP  
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BE PROVIDING A STEADY SOURCE OF  
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM  
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OR  
WEDNESDAY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE MONDAY  
AS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT ADDS  
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ONTO THE WARMING TREND AND HELPING MOST  
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 30 WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S,  
POSSIBLY VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES F.  
 
IT WILL SEEM VERY MUCH LIKE LATE SUMMER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, STEADY ONSHORE  
FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,  
ESPECIALLY FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THE TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF  
WESTERN LOUISIANA. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT  
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS THAT WILL  
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY,  
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
WHICH SHOULD ALSO RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS  
DISAGREE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH, BOTH IN TERMS OF STRENGTH  
AND TRACK, AND THIS LEADS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE  
FORECAST.  
 
THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND GIVES  
US VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. THE ECMWF IS AT THE OTHER EXTREME  
AND BRING THE UPPER TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS BEFORE EJECTING IT  
NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF SETS THE STAGE FOR SEVERE  
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  
THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE MORE IN THE MIDDLE AND FORECASTS LESS  
PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF, BUT STILL SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SCATTERED  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY  
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AND THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG  
WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THIS WOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE  
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR BEFORE ADDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT  
FROM A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH, SO I'M INCLINED TO TREND THE FORECAST  
MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN REGARDING  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE KEY REGARDING  
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF  
THE UPPER TROUGH. IF SEVERE STORMS DO DEVELOP, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS  
WILL BE A THREAT, AND THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD  
BE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND  
POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT  
QUICKLY MOVES EAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND COLD  
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  
 
CN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 56 83 64 86 / 0 0 0 10  
MLU 54 80 56 86 / 0 0 0 10  
DEQ 48 78 55 84 / 0 0 0 10  
TXK 51 80 61 85 / 0 0 0 10  
ELD 48 77 56 83 / 0 0 0 10  
TYR 56 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 10  
GGG 54 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 10  
LFK 62 87 65 85 / 10 10 0 20  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
19/09/33  
 
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