771
FXUS64 KSHV 171842
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
142 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COAST.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 7PM
THURSDAY.
- THE FLOODING THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTH IN THE WAKE OF ARTHUR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AFTER DAYS OF SPECULATION ON IF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE SW GULF COULD DEVELOP A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OR NOT GIVEN HOW CLOSE IN PROXIMITY TO THE COAST THE
DISTURBANCE WAS, AS OF 10AM CDT THIS MORNING, WE NOW HAVE THE
FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE EARLY ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON, TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR. WHILE THIS STORM WILL REMAIN A VERY WEAK TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SE TX SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, THE "POTENTIAL" FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE ONE AND
ONLY POSSIBLE IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION. HAVING SAID THAT, THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES IS NOT WITHOUT ITS
QUESTIONS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE THOUGHT ABOUT TRIMMING THE WATCH BACK
TO JUST INCLUDE OUR FAR SOUTHERN PARISHES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WITH THE LATE MORNING PACKAGE BUT NHC'S SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT TO
THE INLAND TRACK OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WAS REASON
ENOUGH FOR US TO STAND PAT WITH THE CURRENT WATCH CONFIGURATION
FOR NOW. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT BY FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING ARTHUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, ANY FURTHER
SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH THE INLAND TRACK COULD IMPACT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES SO THE FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE IS THEREFORE VERY CONDITIONAL.
BEYOND THURSDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS IMMEDIATELY TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A WEAK RIDGE SLOWLY
MEANDERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NE TX, SE
OK AND SW AR. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE HEART OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS SETUP, POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY AND ANY COLD POOLS GENERATED BY CONVECTION COULD POSE
A WIND THREAT. BY FAR THE GREATER CONCERN WOULD BE A FLOODING
THREAT AS WPC HAS OUTLOOKED MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS EXPANDED INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERAL WEAK BUT
POTENT SHORTWAVES MOVING OUR WAY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD AT
LEAST TEMPER THE HEAT SOMEWHAT BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH, ESPECIALLY IF THE WEEKEND RAINFALL BECOMES EXCESSIVE AS THE
FLOODING THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FOR THE 17/18Z TAF PERIOD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS, DECIDED TO GO WITH VCSH/VCTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS ARTHUR
MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING PERIOD, WE COULD SEE SOME BETTER RAIN COVERAGE, MAINLY AT
KMLU. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR ARE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THE MAIN IMPACT, IF ANY WOULD BE EXCESSIVE, HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
COULD POSE A FLOODING CONCERN.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 76 94 78 / 30 30 30 30
MLU 89 76 91 77 / 50 50 70 50
DEQ 91 75 93 74 / 20 0 20 60
TXK 93 76 95 76 / 20 10 30 60
ELD 90 75 91 75 / 20 20 40 60
TYR 90 75 95 79 / 20 20 20 20
GGG 90 75 95 79 / 20 20 20 30
LFK 88 75 95 79 / 50 30 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ152-165>167.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...20
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