839
FXUS64 KSHV 252326
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WILDFIRES WILL
REMAIN OF CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND GROWING RAINFALL DEFICIT
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND COULD
BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF TO RAIN STARVED SOILS UNTIL WIDESPREAD
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STILL LARGELY CENTERED ATOP OUR REGION WHILE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD. IN THE PROCESS, EXPANSIVE CIRRUS AND
EVEN SOME SPOTTY CUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
RECOVER EVER SO SLIGHTLY AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE. EVEN WITH CIRRUS EXPANDING FARTHER EAST IN THE REGION,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO REACH THE LOWER 80S
NEARLY ACROSS THE BOARD. WITH MORE OF THESE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL OFF QUITE AS MUCH
AS THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.
MOVING AHEAD THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK, EXPECT THE ABOVE AVERAGE
WARMTH TO CONTINUE EVEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL STRUGGLE TO
GAIN ANY TRACTION ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE RIDGE STILL EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE TROUGH'S ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
BY MID-WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN WITH
TEMPERATURESINCHING BACK HIGHER TOWARD THE MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. WITH THAT IN MIND, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST WITH
ONLY MODEST RECOVERY OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW RETURNS.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO HALLOWEEN NEXT WEEKEND, THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE TO USHER IN SOME WELCOME RAINFALL AS SW
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS
WAFFLED SLIGHTLY IN RECENT DAYS, BETTER CONSENSUS HAS ESTABLISHED
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SEEING OUR FIRST DECENT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE MOMENT, RAIN CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST
ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SO OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES
MAY BE IN JEOPARDY GIVEN OUR CURRENT THINKING IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
TIMING. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, WE ARE IN DESPERATE NEED OF THE RAIN,
AND THIS MAY BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF RAIN-PRODUCING EVENTS AS
WE MOVE INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
FOR THE 26/00Z TAF UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, SO I HAVE
INTRODUCED OVC250 AT MOST TERMINALS WITH BKN250 FOR THE REST.
EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT OF
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 54 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 55 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 52 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 53 82 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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