039
FXUS64 KSHV 120000
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 0639 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.
- HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
- HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
LINGERING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. POST-FRONTAL COOLER AIR WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OUACHITAS IN ARKANSAS WITH THE BENEFITS OF
INCREASED MIXING AND INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
FRONT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER-RIDGE
FORECAST TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A RETURN OF HOT
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
PREVAILING, LIMITED PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A FEW
SITES SOUTH OF I-20 COULD BENEFIT FROM ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE THE FIRST REAL
SIGNAL THAT SUMMER IS WANING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND AS WE MOVE INTO
AUTUMN. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
FOR THE 12/00Z TAFS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30, THROUGH THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BEGINNING AROUND 12/09Z, AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUDS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KTXK, KLFK, AND KELD
NEAR AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AREAWIDE BY 12/15Z. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, SO VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT ALL SITES,
EXCEPT KTYR AND KLFK WHERE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER.
/09/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 10
MLU 74 96 75 97 / 10 30 10 20
DEQ 69 96 70 98 / 10 30 10 0
TXK 73 97 74 98 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 71 97 73 98 / 20 30 0 10
TYR 76 99 76 98 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 74 100 75 99 / 10 10 0 10
LFK 74 95 74 93 / 10 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...09
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