306
FXUS64 KSHV 021127
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
527 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WEDNESDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE LATE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHALLOW COLD FRONT THAT
CONTINUES TO DRIFT S INTO SRN AND SE OK, WRN AND CNTRL AR,
EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF AN ADM, TO AQR, TO S OF FSM, AND INTO
CNTRL AR NEAR AND E OF LIT. THIS BNDRY REMAINS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
DRIFTING SSE TO NEAR THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY TO JUST NW OF
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND REMAIN OVER CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
REMAIN BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BNDRY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, BUT ALL HAS BEEN QUIET THIS EVENING WITH THE
CLOSEST CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE OK INTO FAR NRN AR
WITH BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL TRAVERSE ESE ACROSS NCNTRL AR OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-
SOUTH REGION. THUS, HAVE SCALED BACK POPS OVERNIGHT TO MAINLY NRN
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND HOWARD COUNTY AR, ALTHOUGH HONESTLY, THESE
AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN N OF THESE AREAS. ALSO WATCHING AN
AREA OF LOW STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE TX LATE THIS
EVENING, WHICH WILL SPREAD N INTO E TX AFTER MIDNIGHT, BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THE
FRONT HANGING UP AND LINGERING JUST N OF THE AREA MONDAY, MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE, ALTHOUGH A DEEPER CU
FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX INTO SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS, BUT DID BUMP NBM TEMPS
UP 1-2 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF E TX/N LA/SRN AR WHERE STRONGER
INSOLATION WILL OCCUR BENEATH FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS IT SPREADS E
INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR N WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, IN RESPONSE
TO A STRENGTHENING SWRLY LLJ DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/OZARKS. THIS WILL YIELD MORE OF AN INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO SW AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING AS IT TRAVERSES THE
ROCKIES AND THE DESERT SW. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS WILL ALSO YIELD STRONGER AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY SRLY
WINDS TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/SE OK, WITH THE ATTENDANT
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN EVEN WARMER AND (NEAR) RECORD
TEMPS OVER THE REGION. DID AGAIN BUMP NBM TEMPS UP 1-2 DEGREES
AREAWIDE TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
STRONG INSOLATION THAT SHOULD OCCUR AS WELL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ENTER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING ATOP THE
SWRLY LLJ AXIS FROM THE OZARKS SW INTO CNTRL/ERN OK INTO N AND
WCNTRL TX, AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE REINFORCED E ACROSS
THE OZARKS THROUGH OK INTO PORTIONS OF N TX. THUS, INCREASING
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY SPREADS E
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY THIS TIME, WITH
MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN AN INCREASING AREA OF
DEEP LYR SHEAR FROM N/NE TX INTO SE OK/SW AR. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WITH INCREASED STABILITY LATE. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
CONVECTION IS NOT ENTIRELY HIGH THOUGH, AS THE 00Z GFS REMAINS
MORE AMPLIFIED/FARTHER S WITH THE TROUGHING THAN THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH IS FARTHER N, BUT REGARDLESS, WELCOME RAINS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP TO POTENTIALLY
EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS. UNFORTUNATELY, RAINS
LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FARTHER S TOWARDS THE I-20
CORRIDOR, AS PERTURBATIONS LINGER ALOFT IN THE SW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS DEPARTING TROUGH.
THE SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS THE NEXT
LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CUT OFF OVER THE DESERT SW (GFS) OR EVEN
FARTHER SW OVER NRN BAJA/ERN PACIFIC (ECMWF). THUS, THE NBM IS
LIKELY TOO WET FOR LATE WEEK, AS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY TIED
TO THE EXTENT OF EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO CUT OFF. ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL
ALSO BE TIED TO THE TROUGH POSITION, WITH THE GREATER THREAT
EXPECTED FARTHER W CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS/ATTENDANT SFC
FRONTAL POSITION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WETTING RAINS BEYOND
THURSDAY IS LOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS, DRIER AIR AND A LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT BREEZE
HAVE HELPED STAVE OFF FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING, WITH VSBYS
REMAINING VFR. MEANWHILE, MVFR CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD AND LOOK
TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE MAKING WAY FOR VFR CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR
CIGS WEST AT THE TAIL END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, WHILE SOUTH
WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 59 85 65 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 82 56 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 75 56 81 61 / 10 10 20 10
TXK 81 60 84 65 / 10 0 20 10
ELD 81 55 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 81 62 84 66 / 10 0 20 10
GGG 81 60 83 65 / 0 0 20 0
LFK 82 59 83 66 / 0 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
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