083
FXUS64 KSHV 290604
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS
LIKELY.
- THOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL MOSTLY BE BETWEEN 105-109, BRIEF
INSTANCES OF 110 DEG F OR HIGHER MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
BETTER COVERAGE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RARE COOL
FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST THURSDAY WHICH WAS OUR HOTTEST DAY OF
THE YEAR SO FAR IN WHICH WE OBSERVED WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S AND SOME
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER MUCH OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SW ARKANSAS.
THE DECISION TO MAINTAIN A HEAT ADVISORY AREAWIDE VERSUS UPGRADING
SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS LARGELY
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AS WE DID MANAGE TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUT DEW
POINTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM ECLIPSING 110
DEGREES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUST A FEW LOCATIONS. WHETHER OR NOT
MIXING PROVES TO BE AS EFFICIENT TODAY WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
IF A LAST MINUTE UPGRADE IS WARRANTED FOR SOME AREAS BASED ON THE
TRENDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SIMILARLY, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WE
AREN'T EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES.
MOVING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
TICK A BIT HIGHER ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WON'T
BE NEARLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF THE HEAT HEADLINES AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES RESIDING OVER
OUR WESTERN HALF CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS. THEREFORE, WE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SOME RELIEF FINALLY APPEARS TO BE ON THE
HORIZON.
BY FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE DESERT SW AND THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A RARE MID-SUMMER
COOL FRONT TO BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASED
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. SO EXPECT THE
BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO GENERALLY OCCUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO FOLLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK HIGHER ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 29/00Z TAF PERIOD. THE
REMAINING CU FIELD WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH SKC
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRATOCU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND N LA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AR AND THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
INTO NE LA BY MID-AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES VCTS
MENTION AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS ATTM. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL DIMINISH AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY. LT/VRB
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WSW AROUND 5KTS BY 15Z, BECOMING VRB
AROUND 5KTS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 100 81 100 79 / 0 10 20 20
MLU 100 79 99 77 / 20 20 40 20
DEQ 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 102 78 102 77 / 0 0 10 10
ELD 99 76 98 75 / 20 10 20 20
TYR 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 99 77 100 76 / 0 0 10 10
LFK 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15
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