863
FXUS64 KSHV 120658
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
158 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- A RETURN TO QUIETER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT, AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO FIRE UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES AT THIS HOUR.
THESE STORMS HAVE NOT MANAGED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LIMITED MOVEMENT HAVE BEEN LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING. BASED ON PROJECTIONS WHICH SCOOT THIS
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK, THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKEWISE EXPECTED TO DRIFT GRADUALLY DOWN TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR,
EVENTUALLY AREAWIDE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY. BEAR IN MIND, THIS DOES NOT MEAN A
CONTINUOUS AREAWIDE WASHOUT, BUT A COMPOSITE OF PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRING UP TO OUR NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLIDING SOUTH,
POTENTIALLY JOINED BY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN DIURNAL CONVECTION BEGINNING
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR FURTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY, PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS UNSETTLED
PATTERN IS DRIVEN BY THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE POSTIVELY-TILED TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND DEEP SOUTH. RECENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH OR ITS ASSOCIATED LOW MAY RETAIN ENOUGH
STRUCTURE TO INFLUENCE FURTHER RAINFALL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AFTER WHICH THE TROUGH WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN ALOFT, LEAVING DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF PERIOD, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT INCREASING LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO MOST TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION,
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
LEAST A FEW SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY
TODAY AHEAD OF A RARE SUMMER COOL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH INTO OUR
AIRSPACE. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO PREVAIL TSRA AT
SOME POINT IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR TOWARD
MIDDAY, ALBEIT LOW VFR IN MOST CASES WITH INCREASING CONVECTION.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND W/SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING BETWEEN 4-8 KTS.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED,
ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 91 74 87 73 / 50 60 70 20
MLU 93 74 90 73 / 60 70 50 10
DEQ 90 71 89 71 / 60 40 30 10
TXK 92 73 91 73 / 60 50 40 10
ELD 90 71 89 71 / 60 60 40 10
TYR 92 74 89 73 / 50 60 70 30
GGG 92 74 88 72 / 50 60 70 20
LFK 92 74 86 72 / 40 40 70 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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