534
FXUS64 KSHV 280006
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
706 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH
VALUES, WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF TO RAIN STARVED SOILS.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN THAT KEPT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA HAS
FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK DOWN, SHIFTING THE RIDGE EAST OF THE
REGION. IN WAKE OF THE RIDGE, THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY TODAY, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVED ACROSS THE FLOW INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-30.
DESPITE THE 10 KFT CEILINGS, SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN WAS OBSERVED AT
SOME OF THE ASOS/AWOS STATIONS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.
IT'S POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES COULD BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-30 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BUT, THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY COME FROM A 10 KFT OR
GREATER CEILING, SO IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT, IF IT MANAGES TO REACH
THE GROUND AT ALL. ALSO, THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
FOR LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AS MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
80S. DESPITE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM NEW MEXICO. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY, BUT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER HUMIDITY
INTO THE REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS, IT WILL INDUCE SOME LARGE
SCALE ASCENT, WITH THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO THE HALLOWEEN SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, SO IT MAY NOT BE A TOTAL WASH
OUT FOR TRICK-OR-TREATING. REGARDLESS, THE POSITIVE NEWS IS THAT
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH IT
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION.
YET, MORE RAINFALL COULD RETURN, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
FOR THE 28/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SSE. /33/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE NWS SHREVEPORT FORECAST AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
THE EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 56 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 53 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 49 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 53 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 49 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 57 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 52 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 55 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33
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