595
FXUS64 KSHV 192137
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
337 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK
WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.
- BY FRIDAY, A COLDER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN
COMBINATION WITH A DISTURBANCE WHICH COULD INTRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
- WITH ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS, MELTING AND REFREEZING
WILL MAINTAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THIS IS DUE TO A DISTURBANCE CHANNELING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY (A CLASSIC THEME THAT WILL RETURN
AGAIN THROUGH THIS MONTH). THIS INITIAL BATCH OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE UNEVENTFUL 0.5-1 INCH TOTALS INTO
THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION EVOLVES BY FRIDAY AS AN ROBUST
ARCTIC AIRMASS (1040MB+) PROCEEDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US,
INTRODUCING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER INTO OUR AREA.
THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION/INTRUSION WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT STARTING ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER OVERRUNNING DISTURBANCE FUNNELS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE DENSE, COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM VERY LOW TO MEDIUM-
LOW (40%) AS SYNOPTIC PLAYERS LINE UP IN A CLASSIC FASHION FOR A
WINTER STORM ACROSS THE AREA. WHAT WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF AT
THIS TIME IS IN THE OCCURRENCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITHIN A
TEMPORAL WINDOW OF FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WHAT WE
ARE LESS CONFIDENT OF IS THE TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
DISTRIBUTION AND AXES OF THAT PRECIPITATION, AND THE ACCUMULATION
OF THAT PRECIPITATION. SUBSEQUENT MELTING AND REFREEZING OF
WHATEVER FALLS ACROSS ELEVATED ROADWAYS WILL BE CONCERN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH
HIGH CIGS EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN 5-10
MPH.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 31 58 44 56 / 0 0 30 90
MLU 28 55 39 56 / 0 0 10 80
DEQ 20 52 34 53 / 0 0 50 70
TXK 27 55 41 54 / 0 0 40 90
ELD 23 53 36 51 / 0 0 20 90
TYR 32 60 47 57 / 0 0 40 90
GGG 30 60 44 57 / 0 0 30 90
LFK 34 62 47 62 / 0 0 20 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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