773  
FXUS64 KSHV 151131 AAA  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
631 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
 
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN  
THE LAST 24 HOURS, AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TX  
PANHANDLE AND WRN OK THIS MORNING, WHICH EXTENDS SE INTO THE LOWER  
MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE, HIGHER THETA-E AIR HAS SPILLED BACK N  
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO, WHICH  
HAS LIMITED THE TEMP FALL THIS MORNING AS 08Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE  
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY A FEW MORE  
DEGREES THROUGH DAYBREAK, A HEAD START ON EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS  
WILL BE GAINED TODAY, WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING OVER THE NRN GULF  
LIMITING THE EXTENT OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AFTER DAYBREAK OVER  
PORTIONS OF DEEP E AND SE TX, WHICH WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT LATER  
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN A  
LATER AND MORE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF THE DIURNAL CU FIELD ACROSS  
THE REST OF THE REGION, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO  
THE MID 90S BY LUNCHTIME. BELIEVE THAT MIXING TODAY SHOULD BE  
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY, WITH RESULTANT HEAT INDICES  
RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF N LA, AND PORTIONS OF  
SW AR AND EXTREME ERN TX. WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY TO  
RIDE AS IS TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF E TX AND SW AR WILL  
REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL IF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT ALL, AS  
MAX TEMPS SHOULD NEAR IF NOT EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON,  
SIMILAR OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY. AS WAS  
DISCUSSED SUNDAY, A WEAK SFC BNDRY OVER NRN AR THIS MORNING  
REMAINS PROGGED TO DRIFT SSW INTO CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS AFTERNOON,  
AND MAY FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS WHERE RIDGING  
WILL BE WEAKEST. HOWEVER, THE EARLY MORNING CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF  
ON THE SWRN MOST EXTENT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER SW AR THIS  
AFTERNOON, AND INSTEAD HAVE IT PLACED NE OF THE REGION CLOSER TO  
THE SFC BNDRY. THUS, HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING TODAY GIVEN  
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.  
 
LIMITED RELIEF TO THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPS SLOWLY  
FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S, WITH EVEN HOTTER TEMPS EXPECTED  
TUESDAY AS THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT SHOULD SPREAD OVER MORE OF THE  
REGION (EXCEPT FOR SCNTRL AR AND ERN LA WHICH HAVE SEEN  
CONSIDERABLY MORE RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK THAN THE REMAINDER OF  
THE REGION AND REMAIN UNDER A WEAKEN INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE). WITH  
SIMILAR MIXING EXPECTED, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY, AS HEAT  
INDICES SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM 105-108 DEGREES. HOWEVER, WILL  
DEFER THIS TO LATER SHIFTS PENDING THE EXTENT OF MIXING THAT  
OCCURS LATER TODAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY BNDRY  
SETTING UP OVER CNTRL AND SE AR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK  
PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY YIELD IN  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BNDRY  
BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY REINFORCE THE BNDRY BACK SW  
INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AR/NE LA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
VS THE CURRENTLY DRY NBM FOR PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AR/PORTIONS OF NE  
LA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE  
CURRENTLY DEPICTED MARGINAL RISK IN SPC'S DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WHILE  
THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE, THE CAMS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN  
BACKBUILDING ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO POSSIBLY THE FAR NE ZONES  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH  
THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET THE STAGE  
FOR A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS WE  
ENTER THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY.  
 
15  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DIG  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN TO SET  
UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL  
PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AREAWIDE, AS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE HEAT IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY/DOWNDRAFT CAPE, ISOLATED STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE  
IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE  
ON THURSDAY, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE  
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE  
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, AS WELL AS A POST-  
FRONTAL AIRMASS, SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED, AS  
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS MANY  
LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST  
SOUTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY, PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES INTO OUR  
SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER  
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND,  
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES COULD PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLOW,  
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY ALONG WITH  
KEEPING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. BEYOND THIS  
PERIOD, MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH  
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING  
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. BUT, THE GFS KEEPS SOME  
WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. EITHER SCENARIO WOULD KEEP THE  
CHANCE FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS  
THE REGION. /20/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 15/12Z TAF PERIOD. AN  
ELEVATED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN TX  
AND WRN/CNTRL LA, WITH ADDITIONAL LOWER STRATOCU EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E AND SE TX.  
WHILE THE ELEVATED CU FIELD SHOULD THIN THROUGH MID-MORNING, A  
SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AREAWIDE, BUT DIMINISH  
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SOME CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER CNTRL AND  
ERN AR SHOULD SPILL S ACROSS SRN AR/N LA, BUT OTHERWISE, SKC IS  
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WSW  
WINDS 5-8KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT S AFTER 00Z. /15/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 100 78 101 79 / 0 0 10 10  
MLU 97 76 98 76 / 10 10 20 10  
DEQ 102 73 103 74 / 10 10 10 10  
TXK 101 77 102 79 / 0 0 10 10  
ELD 97 74 98 75 / 10 10 20 10  
TYR 101 78 102 80 / 0 0 0 0  
GGG 101 76 102 78 / 0 0 0 0  
LFK 100 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.  
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
OKZ077.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
TXZ096-097-109-111-112-126-138-151>153-165>167.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...15  
LONG TERM....20  
AVIATION...15  
 
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