162
FXUS64 KSHV 030601
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
101 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY,
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
WHILE PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT IN TIME FOR EASTER SUNDAY AND TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRATOCU CIGS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING WHILE SPREADING N ACROSS THE REGION, AND SHOULD
OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THESE CIGS, AND
SERLY WINDS, WILL NOT ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL MUCH FARTHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH CIGS LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
DOUBTFUL TO SCATTER OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SW AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING, AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM WRN WY S THROUGH
UT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE E THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY. THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL
EJECT NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
UPPER TROUGH AXIS, WITH ASSOCIATED ASCENT AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NBM FINALLY HAS TONED BACK POPS COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS, WITH CHANCE POPS MORE REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF N LA/SRN AR. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON FARTHER W FROM THE OZARKS SW
THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL TX, ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO NW OK INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. AMPLE INSTABILITY WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD YIELD THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THESE AREAS, WITH
THE CONVECTION CONGEALING INTO A MCS AS IT GRADUALLY PROGRESSES
SE THROUGH N TX/ERN OK/NW AND NCNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD ENTER THE NW ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME WITH REDUCED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
N TX INTO SRN AND ERN OK LATE BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
BEGINS TO STEADILY SHIFT SE LATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E INTO THE
MIDWEST AND MS VALLEY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH ADEQUATE FORCING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS IT SLIDES SE THROUGH THE REGION. STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY
OVER LOWER E TX AND NCNTRL LA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION
TAPS INTO A WARMER AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING MLCAPES, BUT BULK SHEAR REMAINS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THE CONVECTION BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TOP SHIFT E OF
THE AREA. THE COOLER NBM GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY
MAY BE LIMITED AS WELL, ALSO LEADING TO GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A
MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH STORM
TOTAL QPF S OF I-20, THE OTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL AS WPC CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH QPF OVER THE REGION, WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SE OK AND WRN AR WHERE
CELL TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE
MCS BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE SE. IN ANY CASE, DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY
BE TEMPORARILY ALLEVIATED AT BEST, BEFORE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DRYNESS RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD START TO COOL ACROSS MCCURTAIN
COUNTY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE COLD FROPA, WITH
THE COOLER AIR GRADUALLY SPREADING SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE EXITING FRONT, SOME RESIDUAL -SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS
DEEP E TX AND CNTRL LA THROUGH EASTER MORNING, WITH CONSIDERABLE
ELEVATED CIGS CONTINUING TO SPILL E BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
ALL BUT THE FAR NRN ZONES. WITH SFC RIDGING ALSO BUILDING SSE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, TEMPS EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, WITH LOWER RH'S PROVIDING A NICE REPRIEVE IN THE HIGH
HUMIDITIES AS OF LATE. COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS CHARACTERIZED BY
THESE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD PERSIST AREAWIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE AID OF A REINFORCEMENT OF SFC
RIDGING TUESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS A SSERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR, THUS DELAYING THE RETURN
FOR OUR NEXT WETTING RAINS UNTIL THE END OR JUST BEYOND THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TO BECOME MVFR NEAR
03/08Z, PERSISTING THROUGH 03/18Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, COULD SEE VCSH/VCTS CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS FROM 03/20Z THROUGH 04/02Z. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 04/00Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY, BUT MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 68 75 52 / 30 30 100 40
MLU 87 67 80 54 / 50 20 100 60
DEQ 83 58 65 43 / 30 80 100 10
TXK 86 68 69 49 / 30 60 100 20
ELD 85 66 76 49 / 40 30 100 40
TYR 85 67 73 50 / 20 50 100 20
GGG 85 67 73 50 / 20 40 100 30
LFK 84 68 79 56 / 20 20 100 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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