737
FXUS64 KSHV 060645
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
145 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG S/SW INTO OUR REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OZARKS,
LEADING TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LOW-END
RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY,
HELPING TO TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT LONGER.
- THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE OF OUR REGION BY LATE
WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO EXERT GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH WOULD MEAN A TREND TOWARD HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ADVANCED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT MANAGED TO GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF EAST TX,
MOST AREAS MISSED OUT ON ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE
TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING
OUTFLOW. WE ARE NOT DEALING WITH THAT KIND OF SCENARIO THIS TIME
AROUND, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS
WE BEGIN TO HEAT UP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIPPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE REGION, DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
INCLUDING SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MOST INTENSE STORM UPDRAFTS/CORES WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL AS WELL, ALBEIT MORE ISOLATED
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS SHOULD BE
TRENDING DOWN BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY, WE LOOK TO REPEAT THE CYCLE ALL OVER AGAIN WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND TROUGHING STILL WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSH
BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 90S. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW EARLY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS, SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY ONLY MANAGE THE UPPER 80S
FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED
LOW LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER AS WELL ALONG WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS. TIMING INTO
THE EVENING IS ALSO LIKELY TO RUN SIMILAR TO MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SLOWLY
LIFTING NE WITH CONVECTION GENERALLY SCATTERED AT BEST WITH LESS
OVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THIS SCENARIO,
OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME GREATLY DIMINISHED WHILE THE SUMMER
HEAT REALLY RAMPS UP WITH POTENTIALLY OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS SUMMER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS ENDED AND/OR PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR
AIRSPACE LATE THIS EVENING. WHAT WE ARE LEFT WITH IS CIRRUS DEBRIS
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AIRSPACE ATTM. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT
STRAY ISOLATED CONVECTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH COVERAGE WISE TO INCLUDE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAF PACKAGE SO WILL
FOLLOW PREVIOUS PACKAGE THINKING AND LEAVE CONVECTION OUT OF THE 06Z
TAF PACKAGE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. DID KEEP THE TREND OF ADDING A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS TO MOST TERMINALS GIVEN HOW WET THE GROUND
IS AND GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD SEE THIS HIGH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THIN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, ONCE AGAIN WE WILL AWAIT DAYTIME HEATING TO
INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE SO WILL
RIDE WITH VCTS BEGINNING AT 20Z ACROSS MOST ALL TERMINALS AND
CONTINUE THAT POSSIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THERE ARE SOME PROGS
THAT SUGGEST HOWEVER THAT THE DAYTIME CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THE VERY END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY, SPOTTER REPORTS
MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING IF NOT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 73 91 74 / 40 50 60 40
MLU 94 74 91 74 / 30 30 50 20
DEQ 93 69 90 71 / 30 30 30 20
TXK 94 72 92 73 / 30 40 40 30
ELD 92 70 89 71 / 20 40 40 30
TYR 94 73 92 75 / 40 50 50 40
GGG 94 73 92 74 / 40 50 50 40
LFK 93 74 92 75 / 50 30 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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