129
FXUS64 KSHV 211145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH AREAWIDE
RAIN SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A DRIER THURSDAY WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION,
TRANSITIONING RAIN TO A WINTER MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN,
ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMMUNITIES BY THE EVENING.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MULTI-DAY WINTER WEATHER EVENT
WITH IMPACTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS
PWAT VALUES STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH, AND IN ADVANCE OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKING EAST ACROSS THE DFW METRO, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH COVERAGE CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
AND NEAR SEASONAL, AVERAGING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50'S AND LOW TO
MID 60'S, THERE IS NO CONCERN AS THIS WILL ALL BE RAIN. RAIN CHANCES
WILL TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY AS A DRIER COLUMN SETTLES INTO THE REGION, WITH POINT AND
CLICK SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A DRY THURSDAY AHEAD OF RETUNING MOISTURE
FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A MATURING JET WILL ADVECT
BACK NORTH, WITH A COMBO OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WORKING IN
UNISON TO PUSH LOCAL PWATS TO AROUND AN INCH BY NOON. INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) MODELING SHOWCASES THE EVOLUTION OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION AS IT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS PROBLEMATIC AS
A COLD ARCTIC HIGH RUSHES SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THE COMBINATION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE TRANSPORT, LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PATTERN AND COLD AIRMASS SETS THE STAGE FOR A MESSY WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TO ADD TO THE
EQUATION, WARMER AIR ALOFT ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
WINTER PRECIP TYPES WHERE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LOOK TO PREVAIL
FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE REGION. FOR NOW, AND GIVEN SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH THE
VARYING EXTENTS OF THE MODELED WARM NOSE ALOFT, IT IS STILL A TAD
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFIC AMOUNTS FOR ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT BEING SAID, AND GIVEN THE SETUP MENTIONED
ABOVE, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
IT CAN NOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THE IMPORTANCE OF MONITORING THE
FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS AS CHANGES ARE LIKELY ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER. TO ASSIST IN THIS, AND TO FURTHER SHARPEN THE FORECAST AND
MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, RECON MISSIONS BY THE UNITED STATES AIR
FORCE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA ARE SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO INVESTIGATE THE
THE DEVELOPING UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA FRIDAY, INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE, EVEN GIVEN ITS
DISTANCE FROM OUR AREA, WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS FORECAST IN THE DAYS TO COME. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WHAT
DOES GET SAMPLED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND WHEN INGESTED INTO THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, WILL MAKE CHANGES TO MODELED SOLUTIONS. AGAIN, IN
WHAT WAY THEY DO IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED, WHICH IS WHY IT IS
CRUCIAL TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.
FOR NOW, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO DEPART THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OR EARLY EVENING AT THE LATEST. THOUGH GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF IN RECENT RUNS ON HOLDING ON TO VARYING P-TYPES
INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW FREEZING, AND POTENTIALLY COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO
CURRENT GUIDANCE CITING ASSISTANCE FROM SNOW/ICE/SLEET ON THE
GROUND. AS A RESULT, WHAT DOES MATERIALIZE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
MELT, WITH THE SAME LOGIC APPLYING TO UNTREATED PIPES. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT PREPARATION DEFEATS PANIC. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40'S.
RK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
FOR THE 21/12Z TAFS...VFR CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF -RA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEPART MOST SITES BY 22/00Z,
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES MAY PERSIST ACROSS LFK/MLU THROUGH 22/06Z.
IFR/LIFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES BY 22/00Z...CONTINUING
THROUGH 22/12Z EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY TXK AS CEILINGS MAY LIFT TO
MVFR. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO
BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 22/00Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. /53/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 60 46 59 44 / 90 30 20 40
MLU 59 47 57 43 / 90 60 30 40
DEQ 59 31 54 33 / 80 0 10 30
TXK 59 40 54 38 / 90 0 10 40
ELD 55 39 53 34 / 90 30 20 40
TYR 61 45 61 45 / 90 10 10 40
GGG 61 44 59 43 / 90 20 10 40
LFK 64 51 64 51 / 80 30 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...05
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