969
FXUS64 KSHV 291018
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- AN EVENTUAL PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TROPICAL PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND USHER IN THE COOLEST
AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON BY THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
ALTHOUGH WELL-ADVERTISED CHANGES ARE STILL ON THE HORIZON, THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL BRING MORE OF THE SAME IN TERMS OF THE
HEAT WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS TREND
WILL CARRY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. LOOKING
WEST, OUR ATTENTION IS QUICKLY FOCUSED ON THE SURGING MOISTURE
PLUME ORIGINATING FROM WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA. THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DESERT SW, EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED
JUST TO OUR W/NW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL OCCUR DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING FIRM ACROSS MUCH THE SE CONUS AND SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE PLACEMENT WILL ALSO SUPPORT INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM POLO DO EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO EVENTUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH THAT SAID,
STILL ANTICIPATE RAIN TOTALS BEING HIGHER ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
ZONES BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND
REINFORCES CONVECTION AREAWIDE FOR THE WEEKEND.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL LIKELY TO RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF NE
TEXAS AND SE OKLAHOMA WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST IN SW ARKANSAS AND
NORTH LOUISIANA ARE LIKELY TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. THESE AMOUNTS
ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN FLUX GIVEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ON THE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND JUST HOW FAR EAST THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN SHIFT BEFORE LEAVING A SHARP GRADIENT
OF MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT IS THAT COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON BY THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF
OCTOBER.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...SEEING SOME AC ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN AND OUT DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING THIN CIRRUS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR SOME DAYTIME CU TODAY THAT MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS CLOSER TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS. FOR NOW, ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS
AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE ESE TO SSE NEAR OR
BELOW 10KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 95 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 94 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 94 71 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 95 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 96 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 93 71 92 73 / 0 0 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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