958
FXUS64 KSHV 231939 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
239 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- EXPANDING WRAP-AROUND CLOUD COVER AROUND TS BERTHA WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE.
- THE EXTREME HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BY THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS POSSIBLE.
- NO IMMEDIATE RELIEF TO THE HEAT OR DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TS BERTHA HAS MADE ITS FINAL LANDFALL AS OF LATE MORNING NEAR THE
VERMILION/CAMERON PARISH BORDER IN SW LA, WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER QUICKLY
TRAVERSING WNW INTO THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY JUST N OF SABINE PASS,
AND EVENTUALLY TO NEAR/JUST N OF BPT IN SE TX. EXTENSIVE WRAP-
AROUND CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WNW INTO E TX/SRN AR AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH ALONG WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAVE
BOTH TEMPERED THE TEMP RISE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
-SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF N LA ALONG THE ATTENDANT
H925-850 INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE FROM BERTHA'S
CENTER, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM DEEP E TX
ACROSS N LA/SCNTRL AR THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO A
DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT, AS THE FLOW REGIME TRANSITIONS BACK TO A
MORE SRLY DIRECTION LATE AS THE REMNANT LOW CENTER SHIFTS FARTHER
W INTO S TX. THUS, THE EXTENSIVE CIGS MAY THIN TO SOME EXTENT
THIS EVENING, BUT REDEVELOP/LOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE DEEPENING
AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS WHICH HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD BACK W INTO
SRN AR/E TX AND THUS REPLACING THE DRIER/"MORE COMFORTABLE" AIR
THAT HAD BACKDOORED SW LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE
YET TO MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS AREAS ALONG/S OF I-20
IN E TX AS OF 19Z, WITH CRITERIA LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED/MARGINAL
AT BEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO RIDE FOR NOW BUT MAY CANCEL THIS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON PENDING HOW TEMPS ARE IMPACTED BY THE INCREASING WWD
MOVING CIGS.
FLAT SFC/UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST AREA FRIDAY, WITH HOTTER TEMPS RETURNING TO THE AREA AS THE
LOW CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY. AS OF
NOW, CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
ANY PART OF THE REGION, AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER, THE VARIOUS HI-RES PROGS AND ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA/SRN AR IN THE NEWLY RETURNED
SRLY FLOW REGIME. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE HIGHER PW AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT THIS WILL BE
THE LAST OF THE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE HEAT BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF BACK OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE DESPITE
A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW THAT WILL TRAVERSE S AROUND THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE THAT WILL PRIMARILY
BRING SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED CIGS TO PORTIONS OF SRN AR/N LA
SATURDAY, BUT KEEPING ANY CONVECTION FARTHER NNE INTO CNTRL/NRN AR
AND THE MID-SOUTH REGION. DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS OVER THE NBM
SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER E TX/NW LA GIVEN THE THINNING
ELEVATED CIGS AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE, BEFORE A THINNING
MOISTURE PROFILE RESULTS IN STRONGER INSOLATION AND THE RETURN TO
NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR OR EXCEED CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY, SUNDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF A SLAM DUNK FOR HEAT
PRODUCTS AREAWIDE.
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS SHOULD EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. VERY LITTLE RELIEF IS
EXPECTED EACH NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS NEARING OR ONLY FALLING BELOW
80 DEGREES ONLY BRIEFLY, RESULTING IN THE RETURN TO MORE DIRE AND
DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGING/HEAT DOME IN
PLACE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE POSSIBLY
RETREATING SLIGHTLY W BY NEXT WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WEAKNESSES
ALOFT TO SLIDE S AND POTENTIALLY FOCUS SOME CONVECTION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, MVFR CIGS AT KMLU/KELD AN HR OR FEW,
BUT OUR OTHER SITES ARE VFR WITH HEATING. TS BERTHA'S CLOUD DECKS
EXTEND FROM KLFK TO KSHV TO KLIT, MOVG W AT 9KTS AND NEAR KBPT.
WE ARE SEEING LIGHT SHWRS IN THE VCTY FROM TOLEDO BEND TO KRSN,
MOVG WNW AT 18KT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KLFK, BUT FZL IS OVER
18-19KFT WITH DRY AIR ABV AN INVERSION AT 5KFT, THIS IS WHERE
CIGS WILL LIFT TO BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AGAIN 12Z-17Z AS THE MOISTURE PARKS OVER OUR AREA. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 77 97 / 20 20 10 0
MLU 76 96 77 97 / 20 20 10 0
DEQ 75 92 75 95 / 0 10 10 10
TXK 77 97 78 99 / 10 20 10 0
ELD 75 94 76 95 / 20 20 10 0
TYR 78 95 77 98 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 77 95 76 98 / 10 10 10 0
LFK 77 95 75 97 / 20 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ124-125-136>138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page