357
FXUS64 KSHV 091513
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
913 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- FREEZING FOG AND WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD
IMPACT LOWS.
- THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
AND LOCATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
DENSE FOG REMAINS 1/4 MI FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF I-49 WHERE AS WE
HAVE ADDED OUR WESTERN FRINGE AND EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 11A.M.
SOUNDINGS HAVE SEEN DRYING FROM TOP DOWN OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO
AND WE SHOULD SEE GREAT IMPROVEMENT IN THE EROSION BEFORE LUNCH
WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MID AFTERNOON. SO WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPS FOR SEVERAL LOCALES 3-6 DEGREES, AS THIS LAYER IS A GOOD
1000 FEET BASED ON AN IFR AIRMET AND CIGS EAST OF I-49. BETTER LOW
LEVEL AND SFC WIND WILL ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE LAYER BY LUNCH
TIME AS WELL. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS RIGHT ALONG THE MS
RIVER WITH 1026MB. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE WILL SOON
ENSUE. /24/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE
PERSISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR
LOUISIANA PARISHES, WHICH HAS EXHIBITED A RECENT WESTWARD
EXPANSION. THIS SHALLOW CLOUD SHIELD WILL CRITICALLY INFLUENCE
OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING, LEADING TO SOME STARK TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS THAT HAVE SUCCESSFULLY CLEARED
OUT ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-30S.
IN CONTRAST, THOSE LINGERING BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER ARE BEING
INSULATED SOME, HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. BASED ON THIS HIGHLY LOCALIZED CLEARING, A WIDESPREAD LOW
OF 30-35 DEGREES IS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THIS MAY BE TOO
AMBITIOUS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS, AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WE ARE SEEING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EAST TEXAS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG TO
INTERACT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO SOME INSTANCES OF
FREEZING FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. A MORE BENIGN, WIDESPREAD FROST
EVENT IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION, HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THOSE THAT REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
NECESSITATE A CLOSE MONITORING OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ANY ADVISORIES THAT MIGHT BE NEEDED.
BEYOND THIS, THE MID-WEEK PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
APPEARS COMPARATIVELY TRANQUIL, CHARACTERIZED BY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WELCOME INCREASE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK, HIGH-
AMPLITUDE COLD FRONTED WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY MOISTURE-STARVED AND
WILL ONLY IMPART A NEGLIGIBLE REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL REMAIN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER PROGRESSION, SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NOT BEGIN
ITS PUSH UNTIL SATURDAY. THIS SLOWER EVOLUTION IMPLIES A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY AND FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL REMAIN LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE TREND TOWARDS DECELERATION WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED TO
FINE-TUNE THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
/33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
FOR THE 09/12Z TAF UPDATE, IFR/LIFR VIS/CIGS WITH FG CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE LOCAL AIRSPACE, PROMPTING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 09/16Z. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TO VFR
VIS/CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 46 65 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 41 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 37 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 44 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 41 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 44 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 44 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-059-
070>072.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>003-
010-011-017.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
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