027
FXUS64 KSHV 251735
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- ONE MORE DAY OF MOSTLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORTENED
WORK WEEK BUT A RANDOM STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR
A PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN MOST AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE THIS MORNING WHERE HIGHER PWATS EXIST.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE DRIER AS YOU HEAD WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF OUR EASTERN MOST PARISHES, CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS DUE IN PART
TO A STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS OUR
REGION WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS
TO FILL AND MIGRATE NORTHWARD, NORTH OF THE OUACHITAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE
EXITING TROUGH AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES.
THE ANCHORED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR OUR REGION TO BE
SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BOTH SUNDAY AND
TODAY BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS WE SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AS EARLY AS TUE NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY INTO WED. THE SETUP WILL
RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH SPOKES OF UPPER FORCING ROTATING OUT OF THE TX
HILL COUNTRY AND UP OUR WAY. PROGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AS THE FIRST OF THESE POCKETS OF ASCENT MOVES OVER OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AND
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS
EVENT ATTM, CAN'T RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS BEGINNING ON WED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLOOD PRONE AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS OR WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS RESULTED IN FAIRLY
SATURATED SOILS FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK'S RAINFALL.
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A SORT OF INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OR A
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS THU INTO FRI AND WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING OUR REGION BOTH DAYS WITH THE
GREATER COVERAGE BEING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. IT APPEARS BY THE
WEEKEND, OUR REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF WEAK UPPER
RIDGING MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND WHILE THIS
WILL NOT RESULT IN A TOTAL END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES, WE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE ABLE TO SCALE POPS BACK TO THE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN VARIETY.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS, A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
AREA AIRSPACE THIS MORNING, PREVAILING UPPER MVFR TO LOWER VFR
CIGS. THIS FIELD WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING, WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT
UNTIL CIGS DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REACH PEAK SPEEDS OF 5 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH LIMITED GUSTS OF UP TO 10 MPH POSSIBLE,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
INSTEAD, AN INCREASING FLOOD THREAT COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION. THEREFORE, SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 88 70 84 / 20 20 20 90
MLU 67 88 70 86 / 30 40 20 80
DEQ 64 85 65 82 / 10 30 30 90
TXK 66 89 68 85 / 20 20 20 90
ELD 64 86 67 84 / 20 30 20 80
TYR 68 90 70 82 / 10 20 40 90
GGG 68 89 70 82 / 20 20 20 90
LFK 68 91 71 82 / 20 20 30 100
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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