749
FXUS64 KSHV 191047
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
547 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAWIDE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALMOST EVERY DAY THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT TUESDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES
IN MOST LOCATIONS.
- RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER A
LONG DURATION. HOWEVER, FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND AS
SOILS BECOME SATURATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A VERY ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE IN THE FORM OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
FROM MISSOURI, INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, BUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30
BY MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AS ANOTHER LINEAR COMPLEX DEVELOPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODEST BUT
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHEN COMBINED
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY AS THE
LINE SURGES SOUTHWARD, LIKELY REACHING I-20 BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND
MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE, BUT NOT ENDING COMPLETELY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20 BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL JUST BE THE FIRST
IN A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAIN RATES MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AS
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, INCREASING
VERTICAL ASCENT, WIND SHEAR, AND MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING LARGE
AREAS OF D3 (EXTREME DROUGHT) PER THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.
WE NEED THE RAINFALL. DESPITE THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWING
CONTINUOUS POPS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE ONGOING FOR
EVERY HOUR OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF
RAIN. POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY COULD BE
BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR
OVER A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF TIME. HOWEVER, SOILS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SATURATED WITH TIME. FLASH FLOODING MAY BEGIN TO
BECOME A CONCERN BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST TEXAS SOUTH OF I-20. A GREATER RISK FOR FLOODING MAY
OCCUR SUNDAY WITH THE MORE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOWER 80S. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE TODAY WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S, POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE CONVECTION ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY.
/NUTTALL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN AND OUT ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE AND WHILE THIS
CLOUD COVER MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE DENSE AS WE TRANSITION INTO
THE POST-SUNRISE HOURS, STILL BELIEVE WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
PRECEDING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. STILL
LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR SOUTHERN MOST TERMINALS JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
IF HRRR TIMING IS CORRECT. TIMED THIS PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SOUTHEAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MUCH LOWER VSBY AND STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, LOOK FOR SSE TO SSW WINDS
TODAY NEAR 7-12KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25KTS. KEPT
VCSH GOING POST LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AREAWIDE.
/13/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
/NUTTALL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 71 84 70 / 70 80 60 70
MLU 92 71 85 69 / 40 80 70 70
DEQ 83 66 81 65 / 90 40 50 60
TXK 89 68 84 67 / 90 50 50 60
ELD 90 68 83 66 / 80 70 70 60
TYR 88 69 82 68 / 90 80 70 60
GGG 90 69 83 69 / 80 80 70 60
LFK 91 72 85 71 / 30 70 90 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...13
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