354
FXUS64 KSHV 191737
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1237 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND NO RAIN TO SPEAK OF.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
ARKLATEX ON MONDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND
ACCUMULATION NEGLIGIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES ARE MORE NOTICEABLY BEGINNING TO TREND DOWNWARD BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FAVOR HOT AND DRY SOLUTIONS, THERE WILL
BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND, AND LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM RECENT FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO
WIGGLE EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DAY BY DAY, AND AT THIS POINT THE
QUESTION ISN'T SO MUCH WHETHER WE'LL STILL HAVE A HIGH OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ONLY HOW
EXPANSIVE SAID HIGHS WILL BE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL RESOLVE
THIS WEEK'S HIGH OPENING UP INTO A RIDGE, GETTING LOST IN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW, OR LACK THEREOF, BEFORE CONJOINING WITH AN EMERGING
RIDGE GAINING DEFINITION OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK, WHICH MAY AIM TO FORM A NEW CLOSED HIGH OVERHEAD BY LATE IN
THE WEEK.
IN TONIGHT'S INSTALLMENT OF "WILL IT OR WON'T IT," FEATURING
MONDAY'S POTENTIAL RAINFALL, THE POPS ARE STILL JUST BARELY HANGING
ON, BUT FAILING TO MAKE MUCH OF A SOUTHEASTWARD DENT INTO THE
ARKLATEX, NOW BEING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT ZONES OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE HIGHEST POPS JUST BARELY MAKE IT INTO THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE, AND ARE NOW POISED TO OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A BARELY
PERCEPTIBLE SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR TILTED RIDGE AT THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, THE
APPARENT CULPRIT BEHIND THE FORCING MECHANISM WHICH WILL GENERATE
THIS RAINFALL. LOWER END POPS ATTEMPT TO MIGRATE SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-
30 CORRIDOR, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE WORTH
TAKING WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS POINT, GIVEN RECENT MODEL RUN
VARIATIONS, AND THE POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF MINOR SHIFTS IN
POSITION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. WHAT POPS WE DO HAVE TREND
DOWNWARD AFTER SUNDOWN MONDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE CONTINUED AREAWIDE HEAT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS ALL AROUND, FOLLOWED BY AN
EMERGING COOLING TREND FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO KICK OFF THE WEEK,
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH ONLY THE LOWER 90S WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER
80S. THIS TREND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE WEEK CONTINUES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND LOWS LIKEWISE
TRENDING DOWNWARD, DROPPING BELOW 70 DEGREES AREAWIDE BY THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE SOME SLIGHT WIND SHIFTS BEFORE A
GREATER SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT, GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 73 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 68 97 69 97 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 71 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 72 97 75 97 / 0 0 10 20
GGG 71 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 71 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...57
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