470
FXUS64 KSHV 130703 CCA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
159 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
- SOME ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS COULD RETURN IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
UPPER-RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE RETURN OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE EVIDENT OVERNIGHT, AS LOW
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION, ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY. DESPITE THE RIDGE IN PLACE, SHORT-TERM PROGS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE INCREASED MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO IGNITE SOME
CONVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD START AS EARLY AS MID-
MORNING, WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
ZONES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-
STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WE
CONTINUE TO CROSS OUR FINGERS FOR THIS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL, AS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON CONVECTION COVERAGE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE RIDGE. I CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING NBM LIKELY POPS, BUT I
KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF OUR LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS
ZONES.
A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A CLOSE
UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, INCLUDING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR I-30
CORRIDOR AND FAR WESTERN EAST TEXAS COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MID-RANGE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN EAST TEXAS
ZONES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. DURING THE SAME PERIOD, AREAS
BENEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AGAIN, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT
RAIN CHANCES COULD STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE DOESN'T SHIFT AS FAR EAST AS ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER, DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NBM AGAIN, AND KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. BY FRIDAY, THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL OPEN
UP AND EJECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT, BUT THEY CONTINUE TO BRING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE THE 40S BY
SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND
EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, FIRE CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN NEXT WEEKEND. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
FOR THE 13/12Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPORT
AND MAINTAIN GULF MOISTURE. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME IFR BY
13/12Z-15Z AND VCTS AFTER 13/18Z. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 92 66 91 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 68 95 63 93 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 71 93 64 91 / 10 30 10 0
TXK 73 93 66 91 / 10 20 10 0
ELD 71 94 64 93 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 75 92 68 90 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 73 93 66 91 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 72 92 64 90 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16
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