943
FXUS64 KSHV 182324
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- TEMPERATURES NEARING OR EXCEEDING TRIPLE DIGITS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEK, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES.
- INCREASINGLY DRY SOILS AND PARCHED VEGETATION RESULTING FROM
FLASH DROUGHT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
- ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY, A FEW OPPORTUNITIES WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS WARM AND DRY
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS RIDGE, WARM TEMPERATURES
DON'T BUDGE MUCH. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONE ASPECT
OF THE FORECAST THAT COULD BE MUCH WORSE ARE THE HEAT INDICES. THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN QUITE WELL, WITH AFTERNOON
TD'S FALLING AS LOW AS THE LOW 60S IN PLACES. THIS IS KEEPING THE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-109 RANGE AS OPPOSED TO EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA OF 110+. ASSUMING THE MIXING TREND CONTINUES, WE
SHOULD BE FINE WITH THE PREVAILING HEAT ADVISORY BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REEVALUATE WITH EACH FORECAST CYCLE.
THE RETROGRADING TROUGH WILL BRING NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION BY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE FRI/SAT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LONG-RANGE MODELS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS
FRONT, WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A STRONGER AND WETTER FROPA THAN
THE WEAKER AND DRIER EURO. THE NBM IS SKEWED MORE TOWARD THE EURO
AND, EVEN STILL, HAS SOME POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SOLUTION WITH RAINFALL COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS IF IT COMES TO PASS. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AND HOPE FOR SOME RAIN.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THE FORECAST WILL
UNFORTUNATELY RETURN TO OUR PREVIOUS HOT CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AS WELL AS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME I DON'T THINK ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS SO I HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME AND JUST MAINTAINED BKN250. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AND WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 10KTS. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT REPORT ANY
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY TO FIRST RESPONDERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 103 81 103 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 79 102 79 101 / 20 0 0 10
DEQ 75 105 75 103 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 80 103 80 102 / 10 0 0 10
ELD 78 101 78 101 / 20 0 0 0
TYR 80 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 79 103 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 77 99 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...33
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