549
FXUS64 KSHV 050515
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WORKWEEK
BEFORE A GRADUAL COOLDOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT
(MID-90S).
- CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF TYPICAL SUMMER
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CURRENTLY SET UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
CONTINUES TO REACH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP THE ARK-
LA-TX WARM AND LARGELY DRY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN IS LIKELY TO
STAY CONFINED TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE ON THURSDAY. ANY RAIN THAT DOES
FALL WILL GENERALLY GIVE LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS COMBINATION OF HEAT AND LACK OF RAIN WILL WORSEN DROUGHT AND
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE LONGER THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN
IN PLACE.
LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE EARLIEST PATTERN CHANGE WOULD
BE THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE OUT WEST SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
WOULD KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN THAT AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS HAVE THE WESTERN HIGH
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST, WHICH WOULD WORK WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO KEEP THE TROUGHING CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST. EITHER WAY, RAIN ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO BE LOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VARIETY FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
PRETTY QUIET NIGHT AVIATION WISE ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE LATE THIS
EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT SOME PATCHY AC NEAR 8-10KFT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX INTO N LA AND DYING STORMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AIRSPACE ACROSS CENTRAL LA. SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT
TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT WILL WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF
MVFR CEILING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS OUR NE TX
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A GROWING CU FIELD THROUGH THE DAY
WED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX, N LA AND SW AR. COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION ANY VCTS ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE FOR WED.
ANY CONVECTION WED SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WED EVNG...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH THE 24HR
TAF PACKAGE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 96 76 94 / 0 10 0 10
MLU 75 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 10
DEQ 73 96 72 94 / 10 10 0 10
TXK 76 98 75 96 / 10 10 0 10
ELD 74 95 73 94 / 0 20 0 10
TYR 77 98 76 96 / 0 10 0 10
GGG 76 98 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
LFK 75 95 74 93 / 10 10 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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