894
FXUS64 KSHV 291814
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- GRADUAL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO 60'S AND 70'S BY NEW
YEAR'S DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN INCREDIBLY LIMITED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
INCREASING DROUGHT CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
IF IT WAS NOT OBVIOUS BY THE CHILL IN THE AIR EARLY THIS MORNING,
WE ARE NOW POST FRONTAL AS THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY EVENING
NOW SITS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY, A
COLD AIRMASS IS SLOWLY FILTERING IN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY WILL THIS CONTINUE
TO USHER IN THE AIRMASS BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO TAPER OFF
FROM THE GUSTY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. BY
TUESDAY AM, IT WILL BE COLDER WHEN COMPARED TO THIS MORNING AS
OUT THE DOOR TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 20'S ACROSS
THE I-30 CORRIDOR, WITH UPPER 20'S TO NEAR FREEZING FROM
TEXARKANA DOWN TO LUFKIN.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, MANY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 40'S,
WITH A SELECT FEW CLIMBING TO OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEG F. WITH WINDS
FALLING OFF ALMOST ENTIRELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM,
EXPECT FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20'S AND LOW 30'S.
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WE WILL HAVE A SHIFT IN DIRECTION AS
THE NORTHERLIES OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURE REBOUND TO BEGIN
AS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND EVEN UPPER 60'S FOR
MANY, WITH UPPER 50'S SCATTERED ACROSS SW ARKANSAS. WE DOUBLE
DOWN ON THIS FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY AS 60'S AND 70'S ARE IN THE
FORECAST AREAWIDE.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EXTREME
EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK. THOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH, SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
A SHORTWAVE KICKS INTO THE EASTERN PARISHES OF LA, AND INTO
WESTERN MS. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINFALL, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
ONLY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. AS INDICATED BY THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DRY POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS, WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN
SERIOUSLY.
53
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
FOR 29/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH FEW250/SCT250 CLEARING AFTER 30/12Z AND SLACKENING
NORTHERLY WINDS AFTER 30/06Z. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK, ASSISTANCE FROM
SPOTTERS MAY BE HELPFUL TODAY WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND HOT
SPOT MONITORING FOR WILDFIRES.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 30 50 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 28 47 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 21 48 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 26 49 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 23 46 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 28 51 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 27 51 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 30 52 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...16
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