398
FXUS64 KSHV 011156 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
656 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
5.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
ANOTHER MONTH IS IN THE BOOKS NOW WITH QUITE A SPECTRUM ON
RAINFALL WITH ONLY .02" OF AN INCH AT LUFKIN FOR A NEW RECORD
MINIMUM FOR AUGUST. THE PREVIOUS MINIMUM RECORD WAS .09" WAY BACK
IN 1943. MEANWHILE, SHREVEPORT, ENDED UP NEAR A HALF INCH SHY AND
TEXARKANA HAD AN EXCESS FOR ONE OF THE HIGHER TOTALS FOR THE
MONTH WITH 3.63 INCHES. AS WE LOOK TO SEPTEMBER, ONCE AGAIN LITTLE
CHANGE ON OUR TEMPERATURES OR MAX HEAT INDICES TODAY. WE WILL TRY
ANOTHER NO ADVISORY AS CALCULATIONS IN THE FORECAST BE HAVE FOR
THE MOST PART PEAK AROUND 105. SHREVEPORT HIT 105 ON MONDAY, BUT
ONLY FOR AN HOUR. OUR CRITERIA SEEKS 2 HOURS OR MORE AND
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. CURRENT THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE WIND AND SOME
ADDED CLOUDS WILL WASH THESE INCREASING DEW POINTS. AND IF NOT AN
UPDATE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON CAN ALWAYS BE SENT IF CONDITIONS
END UP EXCEEDING THE PLAN.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM NAMED EDOUARD
EARLY LAST EVENING. THE NHC CENTER IS TRACKING THE CENTER INLAND
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. (ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT NHC.NOAA.GOV) SOME OF OUR DEEP EAST
TEXAS COUNTIES ARE ON THE FRINGE OF WPC ERO'S THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
READY FOR RAINFALL, NAMELY LUFKIN. THE SPC HAS A GENERAL RISK OVER
OUR ENTIRE FOUR-STATE, EXCEEDING OUR CURRENT POP FORECAST IN
COVERAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD INTO KY/TN
TODAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TO WEAKEN DURING THURSDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT IN THE ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE'S STEERING, THE TROPICAL
PLUME RUNNING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF STORM WILL TURN NORTHWARD
AND SLOW IT'S FORWARD SPEED. SO HOW THAT TURN UNFOLDS MAY BEAR
OUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN OUR EAST TEXAS FORECAST. REMEMBER FOR NOW WE
ARE ON THE FRINGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR THAT
EVENTUALITY. HOWEVER, A SOONER TURN WOULD MEAN MORE RAINFALL.
SOMETIMES THAT HOW DROUGHTS END WITH A FLOOD, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE
GOOD. THE MAIN THREATS FOR TEXAS ARE FLOODING AND WIND, AGAIN ALL
DEPENDENT ON T.S. EDOUARD'S ONSHORE POWER.
ASIDE FROM THE SHORT TERM EXCITEMENT, SUMMER ROLLS ON FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DOLLY IS DONE FOR ALL INTENTS
PURPOSES AS THE CRUSHING SUBSIDENT RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE SE
U.S. HAS SHEARED THE DISTURBANCE'S REMNANT. THERE IS STILL A LOAD
OF MOISTURE AND THE IMPETUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ALL SPREAD
WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE LINGERING UPPER RIDGE IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC IS MORE SHALLOW AND LESS PRONOUNCED, SO THE BACKDOORING
OF ENERGY IN OUR DIRECTION WILL BE FAR LESS. HOWEVER, EDOUARD'S
REMNANT WILL LINGER OVER NE TEXAS INTO THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME,
AND KEEP THAT OPEN TROPICAL DOOR OF HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE FOR US
TO WORK WITH DIURNALLY EACH AFTERNOON. AND PERHAPS NOCTURNALLY
CLOSE TO THE LINGERING CIRCULATION. SO WE MAY HANG ON TO ADDED
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT'S RETURN, BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR AREA, LIKELY EAST OF I-49 FOR STARTERS AND MORE
LIKELY FOR LARGER AREAS LATER THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
NEWS ON THE HEAT IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HEAT RIDGE REFORMS OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND AND COULD EVEN AFFECT OUR AREA WITH
NW FLOW AND NOCTURNAL RAIN CHANCES OR A LARGER EXPANSION,
BRINGING MORE EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL AS THE 596DAM UPPER RIDGE
SETTLES OVER ARKANSAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 01/12Z TAF
PERIOD. AREAS OF STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP BY/AFTER 14Z ACROSS LOWER
E TX AND N LA, EVENTUALLY LIFTING INTO A SCATTERED CU FIELD
AREAWIDE, AS TS EDOUARD MOVES INLAND NEAR OR JUST WNW OF SABINE
PASS AND DRIFTS NW INLAND ACROSS SE TX. AS IT DOES SO, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NW ACROSS LOWER E
TX/WRN AND CNTRL LA, BUT WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TO THE N OF THE
CENTER, AFFECTING LFK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW VFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT LFK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS REDUCED VSBYS/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
CONVECTION FARTHER N SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDING VCSH/VCTS MENTION AT THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS ATTM.
SOME RESIDUAL CU WITH LOW AC/CIRRUS CIGS SHOULD LINGER TONIGHT
FARTHER N ACROSS NE TX/WRN AND CNTRL LA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS LOWER E TX S
OF I-20 AND WRN LA, PRIMARILY AFFECTING LFK. THESE CIGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE REMAINING E TX AND SHV TERMINALS BY/AFTER
12Z, PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER MAY ALSO AFFECT TYR/GGG LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BECOME ESE 8-12KTS AFTER 16Z, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER E TX, BEFORE BECOMING SE AND
WEAKENING TO 3-7KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AS THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD DRIFT
NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 77 95 76 / 10 10 30 10
MLU 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 98 72 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 98 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 98 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 99 76 94 75 / 20 20 50 40
GGG 100 74 95 74 / 20 10 40 20
LFK 96 74 91 74 / 40 40 70 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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