833
FXUS64 KSHV 302330
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES BEGIN THEIR RETURN TOMORROW AFTER AN
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE.
- IMPACTFUL, POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 90S.
- A SLIGHTLY WETTER SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY WITH
THE FOUR STATE REGION FIRMLY IN ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
PROLONGED ESTABLISHMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW, BOTH ALOFT AND NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IMPORTED ON THIS ONSHORE FLOW AND
COMBINED WITH UPSTREAM RETROGRADE FLOW FROM THE EAST IS AN
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, AND
INCREASED VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM TROUGHING EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW. THIS PROCESS BEGINS TOMORROW AND CONTINUES IN EARNEST BY THE
END OF THE WEEK, PRODUCING A MODEST INCREASE IN THE ALLOWANCE OF
CONVECTION, AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASES IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE TEMPORAL WINDOW, WITH A SPATIAL WINDOW DISTRIBUTED MORE
FAVORABLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES (30%-50% CHANCE OF >0.01 INCH EAST
OF I-49). BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SPATIOTEMPORAL CONVECTIVE
DISTRIBUTIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME CYCLOGENESIS OVER TEXAS. THIS
WILL CONFINE MORE IMPACTFUL AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SUMMERTIME
HEAT TO NOW THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A 50 TO 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
I WILL CONTINUE TO REITERATE THIS MESSAGE BELOW AS A SUMMER SAFETY
REMINDER: WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S THROUGH THIS TIME, HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL BE IMPACTFUL FOR
ALL GROUPS OF PEOPLE AND NOT JUST HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS OVER TIME.
ADEQUATE PRECAUTIONS AND AWARENESS ARE ENCOURAGED NOW AGAINST THE
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ILLNESSES. THIS INCLUDES (AND IS NOT
LIMITED TO) ALTERING OUTDOOR PLANS, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU
MUST BE OUTSIDE, CHECKING THE BACKSEAT OF YOUR VEHICLE, AND
KNOWING THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION IN ADDITION TO
HEAT STROKE. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME BKN TO FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF PERIOD. MODELS WERE HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.
/33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 77 93 / 0 10 10 10
MLU 77 96 77 95 / 0 10 20 10
DEQ 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 76 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 75 95 75 94 / 0 10 0 10
TYR 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 75 96 76 94 / 0 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...33
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