775
FXUS64 KSHV 231748
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX
UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND POSSIBLY PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS
EVENING PROMPTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH AREA. WITH SOILS BECOMING NEARLY
SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION FROM PREVIOUS PERIODIC RAIN EVENTS
OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO, THE FLASH FLOOD THRESHOLDS ARE BECOMING
MUCH LOWER, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WITH LESSER
RAINFALL RATES. THUS, THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPCOMING
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, SIGNALING A PATTERN SHIFT CHARACTERIZED BY HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
TEXAS.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, POSSIBLY APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. THERE STILL IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION AND WEAKEN INTO SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT THERE
ARE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHERE THIS LINE FALLS APART BEFORE MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA, WHICH MAKES THIS PERIOD DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THIS
PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION IN ASSUMING THAT THE
STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER. AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER CIGS COMPARED TO THE NORM, BUT WILL
SEE WORSE VISIBILITIES AND STRONGER WINDS. ASSUMING THIS SCENARIO
PLAYS OUT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SHOWERS
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO CLEAR BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR FOUR STATE REGION. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 93 75 94 / 50 10 10 0
MLU 75 91 75 94 / 50 40 10 0
DEQ 71 88 72 90 / 70 40 30 0
TXK 74 92 75 94 / 60 40 20 0
ELD 72 88 72 93 / 70 40 20 0
TYR 77 94 74 94 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 77 93 74 93 / 50 10 0 0
LFK 76 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-019-
021.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-138.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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