735
FXUS64 KSHV 201759
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- RAIN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING, LEAVING MUCH OF THE
AREA DRY OVERNIGHT
- SO ONE LAST COOLER DAY FOR ALL, BUT LOWER 90S WILL RETURN WITH
LESS RAIN AND MORE SUN FOR FATHER'S DAY WITH BREEZY SW WINDS.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS WARM WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ON THE LIGHT NW
FLOW WILL ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
RAIN IS ONGOING AT THE TIME OF WRITING, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME BACKBUILDING SHOWERS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN EAST TEXAS
WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS AREA
HAS SEEN LESS RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS AND HAS MUCH DRIER SOILS
THAN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION RIGHT NOW. THE THINKING IS THAT
SOILS COULD ACCEPT MORE WATER AND REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WORST OF THE RAIN FROM THIS
MORNING'S MCS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM UNLESS RADAR TRENDS NECESSITATE AN
EXTENTION.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ON, LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. MOST SITES'
HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN IF
AN ADVISORY ISN'T ISSUED, TAKE CAUTION FOR ANY OUTDOOR FATHER'S
DAY ACTIVITIES PLANNED AND TAKE STEPS TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS. THERE COULD BE SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SEA BREEZE
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND SOUTHERN AR ON TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD LIMIT THE RAINFALL TO THE ROUGH NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXTENT ON THE RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. BECAUSE OF THE ALREADY HEAVILY
SATURATED SOILS FROM THIS PAST WEEK, AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION IS
INCLUDED IN AN ERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPGRADES TO
HIGHER RISK CATEGORIES. RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL THIS WEEK, HEAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THE CURRENT NBM RUN HAS THE WARMEST DAYS BEING MONDAY AND NEXT
SATURDAY, BUT THERE TENDS TO BE A WARM BIAS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MONDAY COULD BE CLOSEST TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THAT WE WILL GET
AND WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING PACKAGES.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE 20/18Z TAF UPDATE, REMNANT VCSH/VCTS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH MVFR CIGS ONLY LEFT IN OUR EASTERN AIRSPACE NEAR
KELD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING IN WESTERN ZONES AFTER 21/06Z. VCTS/-SHRA IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN AIRSPACE (MOVING NORTH)
AFTER 21/15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TODAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR
THE DAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 90 78 93 / 20 30 10 10
MLU 75 91 78 95 / 20 60 0 10
DEQ 72 90 75 89 / 20 20 60 50
TXK 74 92 77 93 / 20 10 30 30
ELD 73 90 76 92 / 20 30 20 20
TYR 75 92 78 94 / 20 10 0 10
GGG 75 92 77 94 / 20 10 0 10
LFK 76 93 78 96 / 30 30 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ112-126-137-138-
149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
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