178
FXUS64 KSHV 171059 CCA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ARK-LA-TX DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CONTINUED VERY LOW HUMIDITY
AND ELEVATED WINDS.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AFTER TODAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, RH'S WILL BE
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THE ELEVATED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
THIS WEEKEND. ONGOING DROUGHT HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY FUELS THAT
WILL EASILY CATCH FIRE AND SPREAD. FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH
ALONG WITH THE WINDS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK, LEADING TO
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL WORK TO
KEEP ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT BAY AND WORK TO WORSEN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOR THE 17/12Z TAFS...VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
MOST TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GUSTS FROM THE NORTH
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. I DID
KEEP THE MENTION OF LLWS AT KMLU. BY THIS EVENING, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION YIELDING SKC SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 47 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 70 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 71 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 69 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 70 42 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 69 46 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 69 45 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 71 49 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ005-006-013-014-018>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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