608
FXUS64 KSHV 201818
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
118 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL PRESENT FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE ADHERE TO BURN
BANS PROVIDED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND DESPITE THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A RELENTLESS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTLINES INTO THE LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS PERSISTENT FEATURE IS A
WEAK CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA,
WHILE UPSTREAM A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CAN BE FOUND WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTER-WAVE
PERTURBATIONS LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHERN US
AND GULF COAST, WHILE A SLOW MOVING, ALMOST STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. NORTH OF THIS FRONT, A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM CAN
BE DETECTED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH AN EXPANSIVE,
SEASONALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA NOSING
INTO THE NORTHERN US.
FOCUSING CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR HOT
AND DRY WEATHER. TODAY, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL HOLD UNTIL 7PM
TONIGHT. COMPARED TO SATURDAY, SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN PREPARES TO CHANGE FOR OUR
REGION VERY BRIEFLY. NEVERTHELESS, DESPITE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER AND NO HEAT HEADLINES IN PLACE, THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
SHOULD STILL BE AWARE THAT HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AS HIGHS RECOVER THEMSELVES BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS OUR BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS HELD FIRM INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA WILL DAMPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL TX PUSHES EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER OF TX/OK. AS THE SHORTWAVE
AND FRONT THEN MOVE EAST IN TANDEM TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONT AND PEAK DIURNAL HEATING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS
NORTHERN TX AND SOUTHERN OK. EXPECT INSTABILITY/CAPE TO QUICKLY
WANE AFTER SUNSET AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHUNT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, HOWEVER, THERE EXISTS A BRIEF WINDOW FROM ROUGHLY 00Z
TO 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY WHERE A STRONG STORM OR
TWO OR EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST, WHERE THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. CONVECTION AND SHOWER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH OR PERHAPS EVEN
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, ALTHOUGH A LONE SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL GREET MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING,
SLOWLY SCATTERING THROUGH THE DAY AND YIELDING ANOTHER HOT DAY.
THAT SAID, WEAK TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND THE
LINGERING FRONT WILL WORK TOGETHER TO MAKE FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE NOTHING
REMOTELY CLOSE TO A WASH OUT IS EXPECTED, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE, AND ESPECIALLY SO SOUTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WHILE THE SPC DOES NOT HAVE
THE LOCAL AREA IN A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, GIVEN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS (AND BRIEF, HEAVY RAIN) AND THEREFORE,
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD MATERIALIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY MAY FEATURE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS SLOW PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA AND THE REMAINDER OF LOCATIONS IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT PATIENTLY WAIT FOR ANY SIGN OF COOLER WEATHER.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, ANY TYPE OF COOLER AIR WILL LAG ITS
PASSAGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE WORKS ITSELF BETTER INTO THE AREA.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP TO OFFSET ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLING PROVIDED BY THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS, WITH
THE RESULT BEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY MAKE FOR A LEAST AN AFTERNOON BREEZE BUT
MAY MAKE FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER WOES.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. KTYR MAY HAVE SOME VCTS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST,
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS JUST YET TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS
PACKAGE. KLFK COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH SOME
RECENT MOISTURE RETURN, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STANDARD CU FIELD SHOULD RETURN BY MIDDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING WESTERLY. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 74 98 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 70 96 68 91 / 10 30 10 10
TXK 75 97 73 94 / 0 20 10 10
ELD 73 98 71 95 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 75 97 74 95 / 10 30 10 10
GGG 73 99 73 98 / 0 10 10 20
LFK 73 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...57
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