081  
FXUS64 KSHV 141749  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
- SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS ON TAP FOR TODAY  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  
 
- HEATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH  
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AND DANGEROUS HEAT  
INDICES.  
 
- WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE THIS  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-30  
CORRIDOR, RADAR ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING  
TO EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHORT-TERM  
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH ACCURATELY CAPTURING THESE DAILY  
DIURNAL STORMS, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AN UPTICK IN  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF EARLIER RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RED RIVER  
AND MCCURTAIN COUNTIES. THOUGH SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS,  
PARTICULARLY REGARDING STORM PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY, RECENT  
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION, WE ARE MONITORING A SURGE OF SEA  
BREEZE CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION IN  
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, WHICH COULD MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER  
TODAY.  
 
TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE “COOLEST” DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, A  
WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS  
CLIMBING STEADILY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE APPROACHED OR MET  
IN SOME LOCATIONS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. WHILE COORDINATION WITH  
NEIGHBORING OFFICES LED TO A DECISION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR  
NOW, FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES MAY INCLUDE HEAT HEADLINES PENDING  
UPDATED GUIDANCE.  
 
LASTLY, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK, AS  
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR A SYSTEM TRACKING BENEATH THE  
RIDGE AND APPROACHING SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE  
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT  
THIS TIME, BUT RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR UPDATES IN THE  
COMING DAYS AS FORECAST CLARITY IMPROVES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SO FAR MVFR ARE LIFTING TO VFR WITH A  
PEPPERING OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-49 WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR MID  
AFTN THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEA BREEZE IS ALSO HEADED TOWARD KMLU FOR  
NOW. BETTER COVERAGE WILL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY WIND AND  
POTENTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WE WILL AMEND  
VCSH/VCTS WITH A BRIEF TEMPO FOR ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS. OVERNIGHT SW  
WINDS WILL LAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 5KT WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND A  
WINDOW FOR BR 11-15Z. /24/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTH  
LOUISIANA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL,  
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 77 97 78 99 / 20 10 0 0  
MLU 75 97 76 99 / 20 20 0 10  
DEQ 70 90 71 93 / 30 30 10 10  
TXK 74 96 75 99 / 30 20 0 0  
ELD 72 95 73 98 / 20 20 10 10  
TYR 74 93 74 93 / 20 10 0 0  
GGG 74 94 74 95 / 20 10 0 0  
LFK 74 95 73 96 / 20 20 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...33  
AVIATION...24  
 
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