270
FXUS64 KSHV 040610
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HOT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%)
WILL RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
FLAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE ORIGINAL THOUGHT WAS
THAT THE RIDGE WOULD HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP
US MOSTLY RAIN-FREE. THAT COULD STILL BE THE CASE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES, WHICH WOULD GENERALLY BE PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS.
BUT, WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SHORT-TERM PROGS SUGGEST THIS COULD GIVE US
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA ZONES, BUT IT COULD PUSH
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, ALONG WITH PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ALSO LEADS TO QUESTIONS
CONCERNING HEAT HEADLINES. WITH HUMIDITY/DEW POINTS INCREASING
OVER THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, HEAT
INDICES COULD APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN
SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, RAIN AND CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT HEADLINES OUT OF THE FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT PRODUCTS, AS FORECAST CONDITIONS
REMAIN BORDERLINE. BUT, WE WILL LIKELY REVISIT THIS ISSUE DAILY
THIS WEEK.
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST OF THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS ALSO SOME HINT
THAT AN UPPER TROUGH COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION. BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE THE
RETURN OF DRIER CONDITIONS, AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
STILL DEALING WITH A WEAK AC FIELD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AIRSPACE AND
AS WE GO THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR EASTERN AIRSPACE. OTHERWISE SKC SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AND INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS WHEN WE SHOULD BEGIN SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR CU FIELD.
MAY SEE ISOLATED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
OUR AIRSPACE BUT COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT AN MENTION IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE. LOOK FOR ANY CONVECTION TO HAVE DISSIPATED BY EARLY EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 97 78 96 / 0 20 0 10
MLU 74 97 75 97 / 0 20 10 20
DEQ 72 98 73 97 / 0 10 0 10
TXK 76 98 77 99 / 0 20 0 10
ELD 73 96 75 95 / 0 30 0 20
TYR 78 99 78 97 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 77 99 77 98 / 0 10 0 10
LFK 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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