492
FXUS64 KSHV 182346 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- NEXT COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BUT THE FRONT SHOULD COME IN DRY.
- DRY IS THE KEY WORD TO THIS FORECAST AS WILDFIRE PROBABILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY AS WE HAVE LOST
OUR MORNING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARMUP
AREAWIDE. THE WARM UP IS ON THE HEELS OF TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR SUSTAINED SSW
WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. THANKFULLY,
DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ALONG WITH THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND
WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS, THE FIRE DANGER TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM CONTINUED
DRY FUELS ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.
THIS WARMUP THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SPURRED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH CURRENTLY
IS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHOULD HAVE ENCOMPASSED AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY THIS WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS
APPROACHING RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND THEREFORE...SO HAVE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES AND FROM NEAR 90 TO THE LOWER 90S SAT THRU SUN.
THIS COULD RESULT IN RECORED TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION IF THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES PAN OUT.
THUS WE GO FROM RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FOR MORNING
LOWS ON THE 17TH OF THIS MONTH TO LIKELY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JUST 4 TO 5 DAYS LATER...YOU HAVE TO LOVE MARCH ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX.
LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO OUR
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH CURRENT PROGS ON IF THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR REGION OR NOT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS IS WHAT WILL BE
DRIVING THIS COLD FRONT AND WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RETURN, IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR NOW AND THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THAT FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN REBOUNDING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WHICH MAY
HOLD TRUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 19/00Z TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH SOME THIN CIRRUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPILL SSE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. S WINDS 5KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SW 8-12KTS AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 80 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 49 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 44 80 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 52 82 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 79 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 83 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 50 82 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 49 80 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
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