408
FXUS64 KSHV 070812
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
312 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARYFROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS
HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR SW ARKANSAS ZONES THIS MORNING.
THIS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.
CURRENT THINKNG IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, DECIDED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SW
ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. /20/
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. REMAINING BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA, BUT
SENSITIVE GROUPS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ROUTINE PRECAUTIONS.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST. A FEW GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT RAIN
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE
FORCING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS EVENING WITH THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES REACHING THE ARK-
LA-TX. THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THIS HIGH WAS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. THIS WILL WORK TO INHIBIT MOST ORGANIZED
RAINFALL APART FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON NORTH/CENTRAL LA AND DEEP EAST TX AS THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE HIGH AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS INTO SOMETHING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL. THERE ISN'T A SEVERE OR FLOODING CONCERN FOR FRIDAY
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR MORE MODEL
AGREEMENT.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ITS PREVIOUS POSITION WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND CUTS THE SOUTHERN CONUS OFF FROM THE
LARGER ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WON'T BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE FOR OUR LONG-TERM FORECAST: MORE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
RAIN LIMITED TO AFTERNOON POP-UPS. GROUPS SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE
SHOULD BE AWARE OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
AND WORK TO MITIGATE RISKS.
57
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT RAIN
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE
FORCING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS EVENING WITH THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES REACHING THE ARK-
LA-TX. THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THIS HIGH WAS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. THIS WILL WORK TO INHIBIT MOST ORGANIZED
RAINFALL APART FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON NORTH/CENTRAL LA AND DEEP EAST TX AS THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE HIGH AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS INTO SOMETHING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL. THERE ISN'T A SEVERE OR FLOODING CONCERN FOR FRIDAY
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR MORE MODEL
AGREEMENT.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ITS PREVIOUS POSITION WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND CUTS THE SOUTHERN CONUS OFF FROM THE
LARGER ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WON'T BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE FOR OUR LONG-TERM FORECAST: MORE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
RAIN LIMITED TO AFTERNOON POP-UPS. GROUPS SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE
SHOULD BE AWARE OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
AND WORK TO MITIGATE RISKS.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND
NOON TODAY. THERE COULD BE SOME EXCEPTIONS AT KLFK, WHERE LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN NEAR DAYBREAK. WE COULD ALSO SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KTXK BEFORE DAWN AS
WELL. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SO, DECIDED
TO ADD VCTS ACROSS THE SITES, EXCEPT AT OUR EAST TEXAS LOCATIONS.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 76 94 76 / 20 10 30 0
MLU 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 40 10
DEQ 96 72 95 71 / 20 30 30 10
TXK 96 75 95 74 / 20 20 30 10
ELD 94 73 93 72 / 20 10 40 10
TYR 97 76 96 75 / 10 10 20 10
GGG 96 75 96 73 / 20 10 30 10
LFK 94 74 94 73 / 20 0 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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