731
FXUS64 KSHV 251145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER ROUND TWO IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THIS NEXT ROUND POTENTIALLY MORE
IMPACTFUL THAN FRIDAY NIGHT'S EVENT.
- THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT ROUND IS AGAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 WHERE AN ENHANCED TO MODERATE RISK IS
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES.
- THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN WHAT REMAINS OF OUR FIRST ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER. SPORADIC HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED FARTHER
UPSTREAM OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR EARLIER LAST EVENING BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUALLY
WEAKENED CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT UP THROUGH THE CURRENT HOUR. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VERY BENEFICIAL AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO AREAS OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION
ALTOGETHER AROUND DAYBREAK.
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, WE'LL ENJOY A NICE SPRING DAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SPRING WARMTH WILL ONLY ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE
TO RELOAD WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
TO SET THE STAGE FOR THIS NEXT ROUND, THE COLD FRONT THAT SPURRED
OUR FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL BEGIN A SLOW RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE IT BISECTS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LAY UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE
RED RIVER EASTWARD INVOF THE AR/LA BORDER WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
SO BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL QUICKLY ACCELERATE
SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OK AND NORTH TX, WITH NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED INITIALLY JUST TO OUR WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING STORM
CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING INTO OUR NW
ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 BY EARLY EVENING IF NOT SLIGHTLY
SOONER. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTAIN VERY LARGE
HAIL UP 3" IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS OF 60+
MPH, AND EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. FOR THIS REASON, IT IS THIS
AREA OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THAT IS HIGHLIGHTED IN AN ENHANCED TO
MODERATE RISK IN THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, THIS RISK DROPS OFF TO SLIGHT AND MARGINAL AS THE FUEL
OF DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND SFC INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE.
HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ALL MODES STILL IN PLAY SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER.
A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN BY
LATE TUESDAY UNDER INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND USHER
IN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE
THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR NOW ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO THE NEXT TROUGH EJECTION
FROM THE SW CONUS. IF NOTHING ELSE, AT LEAST IT APPEARS THAT MORE
RAINFALL IS ON THE HORIZON TO HELP MITIGATE OUR ONGOING DROUGHT.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
POST FRONTAL LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE HAMPERING A FEW AIRPORTS
ATTM INCLUDING TXK AND ELD. ELSEWHERE, CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION IS TRYING TO EXIT OUR AIRSPACE TO THE EAST AND THOSE
VFR AIRPORTS MAY SEE IFR AND/OR MVFR CEILINGS RETURN OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WE SEE THIS LOW CLOUD AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS MIX
OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BIG SHOW IS
STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WE SHOULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH BACKDOORED
ITSELF INTO OUR REGION LAST NIGHT RETURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. TRIED TO HANDLE THIS BY VCTS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
LFK TERMINAL WHO LIKELY WILL NOT SEE CONVECTION UNTIL JUST BEYOND
THIS TAF CYCLE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 87 67 88 71 / 10 60 30 10
MLU 86 65 88 69 / 30 50 50 20
DEQ 79 61 82 66 / 20 80 30 20
TXK 84 66 86 70 / 20 70 30 20
ELD 81 61 85 66 / 20 70 50 20
TYR 88 69 88 72 / 10 40 10 10
GGG 88 68 88 71 / 20 50 20 10
LFK 90 69 90 71 / 0 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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