238
FXUS64 KSHV 120702
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH MORE WARM TEMPERATURES,
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
- SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. UPPER-RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN IN WAKE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH, WHICH WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, YIELDING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS RISE IN MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO IGNITE SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ZONES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20, ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION, AS IT COULD BE TOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO GENERATE
WITH A 590+ MB UPPER-RIDGE FIRMLY OVER THE REGION. I DECIDED TO
KEEP WITH THE NBM POP LOCATIONS, BUT I LOWERED THE HIGHEST CHANCES
TO 30 PERCENT.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A CLOSE UPPER TROUGH
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY,
INCLUDING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR I-30 CORRIDOR. THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION OR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS SET-UP
COULD RESULT IN MUCH DIFFERENT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, AS DRY
WEATHER WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AREAS BENEATH THE RIDGE, WHILE
DISTURBANCES WOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AGAIN, SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THIS OUTLOOK, AS
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL GREATLY DETERMINE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE
THAT RAIN CHANCES COULD STAY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, DECIDED NOT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE NBM WITH
THIS PACKAGE, AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
DURING THIS PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND, LONG-TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO EJECT THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH WOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT THEY CONTINUE TO BRING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE THE 40S NEXT WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
MAJOR CONCERN WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT AND ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURNING THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME CU FIELDS MAY RETURN WITH GULF MOISTURE.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 92 73 92 / 0 20 0 10
MLU 65 94 68 94 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 67 93 70 92 / 0 10 0 30
TXK 70 93 72 92 / 0 10 0 20
ELD 66 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 74 93 75 92 / 10 20 0 20
GGG 71 93 72 93 / 10 20 0 20
LFK 72 91 72 92 / 10 30 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16
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