404
FXUS64 KSHV 091715
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- HEAT HEADLINES PERSIST TODAY AS THE EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE
MAINTAINS A STRANGLEHOLD ON MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
- A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK, MAKING WAY FOR A TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY.
- THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY REGAIN ITS FOOTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SECONUS BY LATE WEEKEND, LIMITING DAILY CONVECTION TO DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE LATE SUMMER DOLDRUMS CONTINUE UNINTERRUPTED FOR THE TIME BEING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS AN EXPANSIVE FOOTPRINT ACROSS A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THEREFORE, HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
REMAIN WITH US FOR YET ANOTHER DAY WITH FURTHER ISSUANCES POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HEAT RELIEF IS EXPECTED TODAY
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION, BUT THOSE CHANCES DO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
THIS SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN WITH A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE ON THURSDAY AS IT BREAKS OFF, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD AT LEAST EXPECT A SLIGHT DROP-OFF IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AREAWIDE. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERYONE CAN COUNT ON SEEING ANY RAINFALL,
FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
DECENT COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK
STRONG AS WE MOVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL BEGIN TO GREATLY
LIMIT OUR RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WHILE PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
HIGHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE EARLY INDICATIONS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE FARTHER OUT TO THE WEST BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WOULD CERTAINLY BE A WELCOME CHANGE AND
POSSIBLY OUR FIRST REAL SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASONS TO COME IF IT
INDEED COMES TO FRUITION. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 10/18Z. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY TO
BECOME 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS
AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 97 76 96 / 0 20 0 20
MLU 75 98 74 97 / 0 20 0 20
DEQ 72 98 70 96 / 0 20 30 20
TXK 76 97 74 96 / 0 10 20 20
ELD 73 99 72 97 / 0 10 10 20
TYR 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 74 98 74 97 / 0 10 0 20
LFK 73 92 73 91 / 0 20 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...05
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