159
FXUS64 KSHV 040056
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
756 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION.
- THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE ARK-LA-TX, ALLOWING
FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME CLOSER TO ZONAL ON MONDAY AS A WEST COAST LOW
FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. EVEN WITH THE CHANGING
FLOW ALOFT, YOU CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE 991MB SFC LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND ALLOW FOR THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF, WARMING UP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLORADO LOW. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY. MID-RANGE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TX THROUGH NORTHERN AR LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OUT FOR TUESDAY BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND MODEL
CONSISTENCY. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THIS SAME SYSTEM AND RAIN COULD LINGER AS LATE AS THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COME BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM UP AGAIN.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEST COAST LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
AND ACROSS THE CONUS AT SOME POINT. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
HAVE HAD THIS MOVING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THIS MORNING'S LONG-RANGE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW, POSSIBLY TO
COME THROUGH AS LATE AS THIS WEEKEND AFTER IT STALLS OUT OVER BAJA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS MAJOR SLOWDOWN IN MODELS ISN'T UNCOMMON FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT IT MAKES THE LONG RANGE FORECAST MORE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. FOR NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE
STILL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
LOW TRIES TO REINTEGRATE WITH THE LARGER FLOW, WHICH COULD BRING
MORE RAIN TO THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THAT DROP A
BIT ON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO RISE BACK UP INTO THE 80S TO WRAP
UP THE FORECAST PERIOD.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 751 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CIGS AND SOME AFTERNOON CU. EXPECT
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10-15 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 81 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 55 81 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 53 80 64 82 / 0 0 0 20
TXK 59 82 67 84 / 0 0 0 20
ELD 55 80 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 57 81 68 85 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 56 81 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 55 82 66 85 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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