439
FXUS64 KSHV 301835
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
135 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AN BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THIS
WEEKEND.
- WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED, THEY WILL NOT BE
ZERO. SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE MOST EVIDENT IN THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON TRENDS AROUND 10 AM BY INCREASING THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO. THAT BEING SAID, I MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
OVERZEALOUS AS OUR WARMING HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME WITH INCREASING CU
FIELD. ASIDE FROM TODAY POTENTIALLY BEING OUR "WARMEST" DAY OF
MAY SO FAR, DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WAY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THOSE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ACTUALLY WILL BE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE WE DON'T MEET THE CURTAIN CRITERIA FOR
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY, IT IS IMPORTANT TO USE CAUTION WHILE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHOULD SUPPRESS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH JUST LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
ISOLATED POP-UP CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES COULD WORK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY, THANKS TO A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, AND THEN THERE IS MUCH
LESS CONFIDENCE IN WHAT THE NBM IS SHOWING FOR TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE AS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CU FIELD HAS BLOSSOMED IN
THIS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AIRSPACE SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCTS
WORDING FROM 30/21Z-31/03Z AT KSHV/KTXK/KELD/KMLU. ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS PEAK HEATING
FADES. SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD LATE ON SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER SPEEDS/GUSTS INVOF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 0
MLU 74 92 74 93 / 10 30 10 0
DEQ 73 92 71 94 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 75 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 72 91 72 93 / 20 20 10 10
TYR 76 94 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 74 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...19
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