516
FXUS64 KSHV 051130
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS, ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.
- HEAT LOOKS TO BUILD THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND SHOWS NO
SIGN OF SLOWING DOWN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY: I HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, ALL OF OUR ARKANSAS
COUNTIES AND THEN MCCURTAIN COUNTY. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 106 TO 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ADVISORY AREAS.
SOME MIGHT BE WONDERING WHY I DIDN'T ELECT TO ISSUE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS POINT, AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS THERE ARE SOME
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. DECENT ENOUGH CHANCES THAT WPC HAS PAINTED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR TODAY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. TODAY WILL BE THE
LAST GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES EACH DAY, THEY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION AND DIURNALLY
DRIVE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RELENTLESS
HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SHOWS NO
SIGN OF MAJOR CHANGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AT DANGEROUS LEVELS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THESE WARM
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. GRANTED, ANYTHING PAST 3-4 DAYS IS GREATLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. SO FOR
THOSE READY TO GET HALLOWEEN DECOR OUT, YOU ARE EITHER GOING TO
HAVE TO DO IT IN THE HEAT, OR WAIT TILL MUCH LATER IN THE MONTH
WHEN THINGS COOL OFF, AS FOR ME AND MY HOUSE, WE WILL CHOOSE THE
HEAT OPTION. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, LIGHT SOUTH WIND OR CALM IN MANY LOCALES
WITH FAIR SKIES WITH MID AN HIGH CLOUDS SCTVBKN. TROPICAL AIRMASS
AND A WEAKNESS MOVING WESTWARD WILL TRIGGER DECENT COVERAGE TODAY
OVER OUR PARISHES AND PUSHING NW INTO SW AR AND E TX. DURING THE
LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE AROUND DOWNPOURS, BUT
GENERALLY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE SE WITH EASTERLIES THROUGH
THE COLUMN ALOFT. THIS WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE DEEPER INTO TX ON
SUNDAY W/ DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLD MONDAY.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 75 97 77 / 50 10 10 0
MLU 96 74 99 75 / 30 0 10 10
DEQ 100 71 101 72 / 10 0 10 0
TXK 98 75 99 76 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 98 73 100 73 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 95 74 97 76 / 40 10 10 0
GGG 97 73 99 75 / 60 10 10 0
LFK 92 72 95 74 / 80 10 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...NONE.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page