104
FXUS64 KSHV 181811
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM.
- FOLLOWING PROPER FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS, SUCH AS OBEYING
LOCAL BURN BANS AND REFRAINING FROM ACTIVITIES THAT COULD
GENERATE SPARKS/FLAMES WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE STARTS AND
SPREADS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, AND WILL BE
ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
A GLANCE AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE
MIDWEST, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, WITH A
STRONG BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES SITUATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA, WHILE LOOSE,
OPEN-WAVE TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS THE BAJA REGION AND ADJACENT
DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RULES THE
MAJORITY OF THE US EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA.
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE IS THE
PERFECT FORMULA FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE FROM FRIDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON, YIELDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WHILE THIS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT FALL
FEEL OUTSIDE, IT BRINGS WITH IT CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS, SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WILL COEXIST TO MAKE FOR FAVORABLE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, MEANING FIRE STARTS AND RAPID
FIRE SPREADS CAN BE EASILY ACHIEVED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO OBEY LOCAL
BURN BANS AND LIMIT ACTIVITIES THAT MAY INDUCE SPARKS/FLAMES.
AFTER ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY MORE NOTICEABLY TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MAKE A RUN FOR 80 DEGREES FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
AMPLE SUBSIDENCE. GIVEN LITTLE DISPLACEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A LACK OF APPRECIABLE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, FELT
THAT THE NBM AND SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE WAS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN (ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THIS WAS MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE LATEST RUNS), AND HAVE
OPTED TO TEMPER DEWPOINTS SOME ON MONDAY, WHICH IN TURN LOWERED RH
VALUES AND KEPT THEM IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. AS WILL END UP
SEEMINGLY LIKE A FOREVER REPEAT THIS COMING WEEK, ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS NEEDED FOR MONDAY. ALL FIRE WEATHER
PRECAUTIONS NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY INTO THE WORK
WEEK.
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN DETAIL BEYOND TUESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY BY MID-WEEK AS A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW
DIVES SOUTH FROM THE WEST COAST OF BC TOWARDS THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL HELP CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A WARMING TREND IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE DOMINANCE OF
LIGHT NE WINDS FROM SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES. THE RESULTANT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP NIGHTS
SEASONABLY COOL IN THE 50S. WHILE THE ABSENCE OF GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL MAKE THE OUTDOORS FEEL COMFORTABLE, FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A ISSUE. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EACH AFTERNOON TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, PROMPTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF CARRYING A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS COULD NOT BE
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES EITHER.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO A DRY PATTERN
CONTINUING EVEN JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD, AS WPC CLUSTERS
ALL FAVOR HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY REGION.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
FOR THE 17/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS TRAVERSING OUR AIRSPACE FROM
WEST TO EAST UNDER DOMINANT WESTERLIES ALOFT. AT THE SFC AND LOWER
LEVELS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN AN E TO SLIGHTLY SE COMPONENT
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
LIGHT FROM THE E/SE MONDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 47 77 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 43 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 46 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 49 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 50 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...19
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