394
FXUS64 KSHV 281130
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
530 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- THE NEXT ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ELEVATED, SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL
EXISTS (< 20%-30%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS ALREADY ON THE WAY ACROSS WASHINGTON
STATE AS THANKSGIVING NIGHT REMAINS THE LAST DRY NIGHT FOR A WHILE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
TOMORROW AS THE INITIAL TROUGH QUICKLY EJECTS FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FROM THE FOLLOWING TROUGH (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ C/KM) FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL (AND
SOME DAMAGING WINDS), ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL INTRODUCE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. COMBINED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE,
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN. THAT SAID, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ALIGNMENT OF
ENOUGH COLD AIR, MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ALL
OF WHICH ADDS UP TO A 20-30% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL (MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S,
MINIMUMS IN THE 40S) UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AIR MASS IS USHERED
IN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER: MAXIMUMS IN THE 50S, MINIMUMS IN
THE 20S-30S AT THE COLDEST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TO NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS, SCT HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS AREA AIRSPACE
AT THIS HOUR, AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WHILE CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER LATE IN THE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF INCOMING RAINFALL. RAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTHWEST AIRSPACE BY 29/06Z, SPREADING EASTWARD
AFTER 29/09Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE,
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AIRSPACE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 46 64 39 / 0 70 80 90
MLU 58 41 63 40 / 0 20 70 90
DEQ 58 39 55 28 / 0 90 100 40
TXK 60 43 60 33 / 0 80 90 70
ELD 56 38 56 33 / 0 50 90 90
TYR 62 48 66 35 / 0 70 90 60
GGG 62 45 66 35 / 0 80 80 70
LFK 63 46 70 40 / 0 60 70 90
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26
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