641
FXUS64 KSHV 191722
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM.
- FOLLOWING PROPER FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS, SUCH AS OBEYING
LOCAL BURN BANS AND REFRAINING FROM ACTIVITIES THAT COULD
GENERATE SPARKS/FLAMES WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE STARTS AND
SPREADS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, AND WILL BE
ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AFTER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN STRENGTH BUT SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE. THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY AND STAY THERE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT COULD CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK ARE
THE DEW POINTS, AND NOT FOR THE BETTER. PERSISTANT EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY CONTINENTAL AIR,
KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES, RH'S
WILL LIKELY DROP THROUGH THE WEEK AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THE FOREFRONT. MIN RH'S IN THE AFTERNOONS COULD DROP INTO THE
20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, WITH SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR POSSIBLY
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OR
OTHER FIRE PRODUCTS COULD BE ISSUED DAILY THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
RESULT OF THESE DRY CONDITIONS. MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HEED THE GUIDANCE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS ON OUTSIDE
BURNING AND MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO CHANGE CONDITIONS
FOR THE ARK-LA-TX, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG FACTOR IN WHETHER
OR NOT A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW ON THE WEST COAST IS ABLE TO
BRING ANY RELIEF THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES OR RAIN. AT THIS
TIME, ODDS LOOK SLIM THAT THIS LOW WILL BE ABLE TO OVERTAKE THE
RIDGE THAT WILL BE STRETCHING OVER MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS BY
NEXT WEEKEND, LEAVING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DRY AND WARM.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
ONLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO
NEAR VARIABLE AT TIMES TODAY, BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT
EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 49 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 46 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 49 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 80 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page