132
FXUS64 KSHV 230024
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
AVIATION
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS WE ARE SEEING A GOOD PUSH OF MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR US ON THE SFC. OTHER MORE SHOWERY TYPE
ACTIVITY WILL BE PEPPERING IN ALL NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
APPROACH ACROSS OK ATTM. WARMER TEMPS WILL ADVECT IN ON ESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. CLIMB WINDS ARE BRIEFLY SE AND VEER TO SW 20-40KT.
SEVERE ICING ALOFT WITH A 4KFT LAYER 095-130 WITH SUPER COOLED
WATER OBSERVED ON OUR BALLOON SOUNDING. VLIFR/IFR OVERNIGHT CIGS
AND VSBY W/SFC WINDS SHIFTING DURING THE DAY TO SW AND EVENTUALLY
POST FROPA NW10-20KT. MUCH BETTER WEATHER THROUGH WKND. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 416 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR ALL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS THE THREAT
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WINTER PRECIP HAS COME TO AN END. HOWEVER,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW AS THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OF NORTH/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
HANG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES
TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ABOVE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD
AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
BUT AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TONIGHT, IT WILL PULL A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-20 BY DAYBREAK. A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI TOMORROW PULLING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH TWO DISTURBANCES LIKELY IMPACTING THE FOUR STATE
REGION. FORTUNATELY, THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY LOW (ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY, WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE). NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE REGION WILL LIKELY MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE BEFORE THE
FIRST MENTIONED DISTURBANCE QUICKLY APPROACHES. SCATTERED LOCATIONS,
MAINLY NORTH OF I-20, MAY BE ABLE TO GET DOWN TO FREEZING BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP TO
AROUND 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY
SHOULD YIELD SHOWERS COMING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DEFINITELY WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WINTRY PRECIP TYPES.
EXPECT THIS QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE TO BE PULLING OUT SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE VERY CHILLY WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
PROBABLY AT LEAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, LIMITING
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES RANGES, BUT THE NEXT BOUT OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY (AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE 2ND PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE). THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE MORE MOISTURE
AND AT LEAST A LITTLE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO WE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH AT LEAST EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CARRY A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY, SO WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH TRENDS ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE CLOSELY. /50/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 39 52 37 58 / 90 70 0 0
MLU 38 52 38 58 / 90 90 10 0
DEQ 34 49 32 53 / 90 50 10 0
TXK 37 50 35 54 / 90 60 0 0
ELD 35 49 35 55 / 90 80 10 0
TYR 43 54 37 60 / 80 30 0 0
GGG 41 54 37 59 / 80 50 0 0
LFK 46 61 39 63 / 80 50 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
24/20/50
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page