947
FXUS64 KSHV 151114
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
614 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE TODAY WITH FUTURE EXTENSIONS
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.
- THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY WITH AN
UPPER LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, PROVIDING
FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
PERSISTENCE FORECASTING RELIES ON THE PAST TO HELP PREDICT THE
FUTURE, AND LET'S JUST SAY IT'S GETTING OLD FAST AT THIS POINT.
OUR EXTENDED STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER HEAT, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER, HAS THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK TO GO WITH A DECENT
CHANCE OF ADDING MORE TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OUR TALLY.
MOST AREAS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THEN WE REPEAT THE CYCLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK AS THE CENTER OF RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES
BACK ACROSS OUR REGION. SO IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS THAT WE
COULD ACTUALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
AS WE MOVE LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT WHO'S COUNTING AT THIS POINT?!
MEANWHILE, RAIN CHANCES ARE BARELY WORTH A MENTION WITH ONLY THE
SLIMMEST OF CHANCES AT LANDING UNDER A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM EACH
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK. WITH THE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS, HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE TOP OF MIND THIS WEEK WITH ALL OUTDOOR RECREATION AND WORK
ACTIVITIES. THIS DANGEROUS HEAT RISK WILL POSE A THREAT FOR RAPID
ONSET OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT PROPERLY
ADHERED TO WHILE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS.
AS WE HAVE REFERENCED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS, CHANGES DO APPEAR TO
BE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
BREAK IN THIS HEAT BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS LOW SHOULD HELP TO
SHUNT THE RIDGE FARTHER WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO EXTEND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS POISED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA JUST IN TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF FALL ON SEPTEMBER 22ND.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
FOR THE 15/12Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. I REMOVED
MENTION OF ANY LOWER CLOUDS FOR KLFK FOR THIS MORNING AS I HAVE
NOT SEEN THE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN. THEIR VISIBILITY
DID DROP BRIEFLY EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT QUICKLY BOUNCED BACK.
OTHERWISE, CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY, BRINGING SCT TO
FEW AROUND 2-4K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. I AM LESS CONFIDENT THAT ANY
TERMINALS WILL SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO I HAVE LEFT ALL
MENTION OF THAT AND VCTS OUT AT THIS TIME. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 99 77 98 77 / 10 0 10 0
MLU 99 76 99 74 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 20 0
TXK 99 76 98 76 / 10 0 20 0
ELD 99 74 99 73 / 10 0 10 0
TYR 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 100 75 99 75 / 10 0 20 0
LFK 96 74 95 75 / 10 0 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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