355
FXUS64 KSHV 271136
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
636 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, INCREASING ON COVERAGE WEST
AND SOUTH MONDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK,
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY, WITH FLASH FLOODING INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A COMBINATION OF CALMING WINDS, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NARROWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES, PARTICULARLY DEEP EAST
TEXAS TO TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY, AND ACCORDING TO SOME HIGH RES MODELS,
POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS, WITH ITS AXIS
JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE, ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP STEER A WEAK SHORTWAVE PAST THE ARKLATEX. THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL KICK UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS AND OUACHITAS DURING THE
MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES A REASONABLE CHANCE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REACH MCCURTAIN COUNTY, BUT CONTINUATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON IS LESS CERTAIN, WITH HRRR SUGGESTING SHOWERS PROGRESS
EASTWARD BUT NBM KEEPING THE REGION DRY. ADDED POPS INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-30 FROM 18Z TO 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A SECONDARY WAVE OF
SHOWERS WHICH MAY MANAGE TO BARELY REACH OUR NORTHEAST TEXAS
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY., CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
DAY. EXPANDED AND INCREASED POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING SHARPLY DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET.
RIDGING WILL PUSH EASTWARD TUESDAY, KEEPING THE ARKLATEX DRY AND
WARM, AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AREAWIDE WITH LOWS
INCHING BACK UP INTO THE 70S ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY LOSE DEFINITION AND GET SHOULDERED OFF TO THE
EAST AD A DEEPENING TROUGH PLUNGES SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS.
WITH THIS POWERFUL FORCING MECHANISM ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FUNNELING GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR FOUR STATE REGION, A BROAD AREA OF
RAINFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NEAR
AREAWIDE RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, THIS WIDE PERIOD OF
MIDDLING PRECIP CHANCES EFFECTIVELY ILLUSTRATES THE CONTINUING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. THE LATEST GFS INTRODUCES RAIN BY LUNCHTIME WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT A DAY SLOWER, NOT INTRODUCING RAIN
UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SAVING THE HEAVIEST FOR FRIDAY. THE TIMING AND
MODE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEAR MONITORING THROUGH THE COMING
DAYS. DISCREPANCIES ASIDE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL HEAVY ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE ARKLATEX FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LATE WEEK
RAINFALL MAKES A DENT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BACK FROM THE 70S INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THIN CIRRUS IS MOVING OUT CURRENTLY BUT WILL RETURN LATER IN THE
TAF PERIOD. SEEING SOME CEILINGS NEAR 10KFT NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD COVER. DON'T THINK THIS WILL IMPACT
ANY TERMINALS HOWEVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKING DOWN SOUTH, SOME
MVFR VSBYS AND A BRIEF CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE LFK
TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAYBE A BRIEF MVFR VSBY AS
WELL AT THE MLU TERMINAL BUT OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF
VFR CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
INCREASING AND LOWERING AC CEILINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 70 93 70 / 0 0 20 0
MLU 93 66 92 65 / 0 0 20 0
DEQ 92 64 90 64 / 20 10 10 0
TXK 94 68 91 68 / 20 0 10 0
ELD 93 64 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 95 72 93 72 / 0 10 20 0
GGG 97 70 95 69 / 0 0 20 0
LFK 93 70 92 70 / 0 0 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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