233
FXUS64 KSHV 100551
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1251 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8
PM.
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH
AREAWIDE HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND NORTH
AND EAST, LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE ARKLATEX LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY AGAIN TODAY, AND
ACCORDINGLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AGAIN, TAKING AIM AT THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS, EXPECTING SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAT INDICES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT ZONES OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE IMPACTED COUNTIES
FROM 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM TODAY. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE, STAY HYDRATED, AND HAVE ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING.
AS THE WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE, THE ARKLATEX WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF UPPER LEVEL STEERING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED TROUGH,
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, TODAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH
SOME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY JUST BARELY MANAGE
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES.
BY EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
AMPLIFY, FORMING A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RECENT
SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AS THIS RIDGE AMPLIFIES, AN EMERGING
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE TILTED AS IT GRADUALLY STALLS OVER
THE APPALACHIANS, POTENTIALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF LATITUDINAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH OR LOW WILL DETERMINE ARKLATEX WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST CONSENSUS
INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING UPON WHICH MOISTURE
IMPULSES WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAWIDE RAINFALL CHANCES AT
TIMES, AND THE MOST LIKELY REPEATED IMPACTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES. AT THIS POINT, HIGHS IN THE 90S LOOK TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN PLACE, WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING UPPER
80S IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH REPEATED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FOR THE 10/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS MOSTLY SKC WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT BEFORE A CU FIELD
RETURNS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF ANY CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR KLFK
WHERE SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS DURING THIS LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR BREEZY S/SW WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 6-12 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 78 94 78 / 0 0 10 10
MLU 97 78 96 77 / 0 0 20 30
DEQ 96 75 94 74 / 0 0 10 40
TXK 97 78 96 77 / 0 0 10 30
ELD 96 77 95 75 / 0 0 20 40
TYR 97 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 10
LFK 95 77 94 76 / 10 0 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ050-051-059-070.
LA...NONE.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page