596
FXUS64 KSHV 260612
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT RESUMES TODAY FOR MUCH OF OUR FOUR-STATE
AREA WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES.
- A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SOON BE NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER
WEST, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK, SOME COULD BE SEVERE LATE TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS BACK OVER THE MIDSOUTH. NEXT WEEK WE
MAY SEE THE SEA BREEZE LIFT INTO OUR AREA MID TO LATE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ONCE AGAIN A NICE AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS KEPT THE HEAT AT
BAY, JUST NOT AS MUCH WINDS FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER, TODAY WE WILL
RESUME WITH SW WINDS TODAY AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND QUICKLY BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGIT
RANGE, AS OUR SOIL DEEP DOWN REMAINS WARM AND DRY IN THE LOWER 80S
FOR THE EARLY THE MIDNIGHT OBSERVATION. CURRENTLY WE SEE LIGHT SE
WINDS WITH A WIDE RANGE OF AIR TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 80
DEGREES FOR MOST SITES. THE UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PARKED OVER
NEW MEXICO WITH SOME CONVECTION FOR THE PANHANDLES AND MIDDLE RED
RIVER VALLEY IN PROGRESS AND A GOOD OUTFLOW HEADED OVER LAKE
TEXOMA AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS SURFACE FORCING MAY TRIGGER SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I-30 EARLY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVING WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT.
THE MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID TO LATE
DAY HEATING WILL BOOST THE HEAT INDEX, BUT ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION FOR US. THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE WPC HAS OUTLOOKED
OUR AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY.
WE CAN EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO VARY AROUND CONVECTION AND
PERHAPS BECOME GUSTY IN THE HEAT. THE PREVAILING WINDS WILL SLACK
AND VARY WITH N/NE WINDS ARRIVING EARLY ON THURSDAY DOWN TO NEAR
I-20. THE COOL FRONT WILL TAKE A DAY OR TWO TO PUSH DOWN AND OUT
OF OUR AREA, BUT SHOULD DO SO DURING FRIDAY, TAKING THE NEEDED
RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH DOWN TO I-10.
OUR HIGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE A BIT INTO ARIZONA, KEEPING A FOOT HOLD ON NEW MEXICO
BY LATE THURSDAY. ALL DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY PILING IN UNDER
A DEEP LOW OVER HUDSON BAY, WHICH WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY NUDGING THE SURFACE FRONT, ALONG WITH A
CONVECTIVE ASSIST, A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FOR OUR NICE SUMMER
WEEKEND. HOWEVER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS BACK
OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS WITH MORE HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY FOR US
AS WE PUT A BOW ON AUGUST. THE GFS/ECMWF LONG RANGE PICTURE BOTH
DEVELOP A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF, WHICH MAY HELP THE SEA
BREEZE TO MAKE GAINS INLAND EACH LATE DAY EARLY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
/24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOR THE 26/06Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING
ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES ATTM AND THAT SHOULD HOLD TRUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS AND MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SEEING IN AND OUT AC CEILINGS NEAR
10KFT OR HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY, DID NOT BEGIN MENTIONING VCTS UNTIL THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME
WHEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST
AIRSPACE. ATTM, IT APPEARS THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE MOST
ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE LFK TERMINAL. LOOK FOR S TO SW WINDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY EXCEPT STRONG AND
GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS A COOL FRONT ARRIVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR PRIMARILY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 101 76 97 74 / 10 40 20 30
MLU 100 74 95 72 / 30 60 40 20
DEQ 99 69 96 67 / 30 20 10 10
TXK 100 73 96 72 / 20 40 10 10
ELD 99 71 96 70 / 20 50 10 10
TYR 103 76 99 74 / 20 30 20 20
GGG 103 75 99 73 / 10 40 20 20
LFK 102 77 99 74 / 10 30 30 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ070>072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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