009
FXUS64 KSHV 281823
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SURGE OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
- THE WIND ADVISORY SET TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 PM CST FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY CLIMBING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70'S THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLIES PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A ROBUST COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE NW ZONES OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BEFORE ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SOME LINGERING
PRECIP EXPECTED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, LIKELY STEMMING FROM THE
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF THE 850 BOUNDARY. HI-RES THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO DIAL IN ON PRECIP WRAPPING UP JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
MOST, THOUGH A WEAK STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, GUSTY SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
ALREADY IN PROGRESS WITH SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. WITH THIS IN MIND, AND
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE AIDED BY THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE, THE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW COVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE START AND
EXPIRATION TIMES AS THE ADVISORY IS SET TO GO IN EFFECT AT 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING, AND EXPIRE AT 6 AM CST MONDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL
STILL EXIST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, BUT
NOT TO THE DEGREE AS THOSE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA
WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN AS MANY WAKE UP TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
30'S AND LOW 40'S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 40'S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WITH A SELECT FEW SEEING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEG F. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO DROP
OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION, OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE A
DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE FROM THE 60'S LAST WEEK. SUB-FREEZING 20'S AND
LOW 30'S WILL START TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DAY WHERE AFTERNOON
HIGHS STRUGGLE TO EXIT THE 40'S. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50'S AND LOW 60'S BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FIRST DAY OF 2026 AVERAGING IN THE MIDDLE 60'S AREAWIDE.
/53/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, GUSTY SW WINDS 10-20G30KT WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS CROPS UP ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW 00-06Z WITH 15-25G35KT
OVERNIGHT. CHILLY AIR ARRIVING ON THESE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT PREDAWN THROUGH MID MORNING. NW WINDS
WILL SLACK A BIT BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS. LIGHT FREEZE OVERNIGHT.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 40 50 30 50 / 40 0 0 0
MLU 40 49 28 46 / 60 0 0 0
DEQ 29 43 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 34 46 26 48 / 20 0 0 0
ELD 33 45 24 45 / 50 0 0 0
TYR 36 46 29 50 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 36 47 28 49 / 40 0 0 0
LFK 40 52 31 51 / 40 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...24
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