103
FXUS64 KSHV 180452
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- NEAR TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- INCREASINGLY DRY SOILS AND PARCHED VEGETATION RESULTING FROM
FLASH DROUGHT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
- ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY, A FEW OPPORTUNITIES WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERVASIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A HOLD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NEAR
TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
ON TUESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST
BRINGING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE ARKLATEX UP TO 5 DEGREES COOLER. BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS IN BOTH OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST MODELS WITH REGARD TO
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, NO STRONG INDICATORS EXIST TO
SUGGEST THE NEED TO UPGRADE THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY TO AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING, DESPITE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX.
THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO MISSISSIPPI WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EMERGING ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED. ANY
IMPROVEMENTS IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NUANCED ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH RETREATS WESTWARD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE ATOP THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE NOT YET COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
INTRODUCING SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST, BUT THE GFS
SEEMS LOOK PROMISING ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOME SCT TO FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT TIMES. WE HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME RETURNS ON RADAR THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THEY WILL MAKE IT ANYWHERE NEAR OUR
TERMINALS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL SHIFT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTH, BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGHOUT. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WILDFIRE ACTIVITY TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS
AND FIRE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL.
/059/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 103 81 102 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 80 103 79 101 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 104 75 104 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 78 103 79 102 / 10 0 10 0
ELD 77 102 78 101 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 79 103 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 79 105 79 103 / 0 0 10 0
LFK 75 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33
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