253
FXUS64 KSHV 031925
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
225 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IN
THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS (THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND).
- A WARMING TREND WITH ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE DAYS
BEGINS MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF THE UPCOMING NEW
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEAK
COOL FRONT HAS SLIPPED S TO NEAR THE SE TX COAST INTO ACADIANA
COUNTRY OF S LA, ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL BNDRY ITSELF IS HARD TO
DISCERN AS SFC WINDS ARE CONSISTENTLY NE N OF THE WEAK SFC LOW
OVER THE SW GULF. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT EVIDENT FROM SRN NM/FAR W TX
EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY INTO WRN OK, WITH WEAK
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW PATTERN EVIDENT OVER WCNTRL TX WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION
FROM THE BIG BEND AREA THROUGH NCNTRL AND NE TX/SE OK. ONE SUCH
BAND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER ECNTRL TX ALONG AND JUST W OF THE WFO FWD/SHV CWA
BORDER, WITH 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED, WITH AN ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTAL OF 5.54 INCHES MEASURED BY THE TRINIDAD HADS IN SW
HENDERSON COUNTY IN THE LAST 12 HRS. AN MCV HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
WITHIN THIS ZONE OF CONVECTION, WITH THE WEAK NE STEERING
CURRENTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME OF THIS CONVECTION CONTAINING
HEAVY RAINFALL DRIFTING SLOWLY E INTO PORTIONS OF SMITH AND WOOD
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS, A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT 1.5-2+ INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS
THIS AREA IN THE LAST 48 HRS.
FARTHER SE, WATCHING BANDS OF CONVECTION MOVING ASHORE THE SCNTRL
AND SE LA AND SRN MS COASTS, ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN INVERTED
H925-850 TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SW GULF. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS W ACROSS THE SW GULF, THE INWARD
ADVANCE OF THE ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE FARTHER WNW INTO
CNTRL LA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS THE SHORT TERM PROGS
SUGGEST THAT THE INVERTED H950 TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY FROM N OF
LCH TO NEAR AEX THIS EVENING. THE VARIOUS HI-RES PROGS SUGGEST
THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THIS BNDRY THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE FARTHER N FROM PORTIONS OF E TX INTO NW
LA/SRN AR IN VC OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE A DEEPER WEDGE OF DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MIX S DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
QUICKLY BEGINS TO TAPER THE REMAINING -SHRA FROM N TO S.
REGARDLESS, SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY S INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AS NW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS THE DEEPER POST-FRONTAL DRY
AIR TO DEEPEN/SPILL SE AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW.
ASIDE FROM A WEAK DIURNAL CU FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF N LA/E TX
MONDAY, STRONG INSOLATION WILL DEVELOP, THUS YIELDING A WARMING
TREND WITH DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO
THE 50S, SETTING THE STAGE FOR COOLER, MORE PLEASANT MORNINGS
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
COMMENCE FOR MID AND LATE WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING
AS THEY APPROACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
VERY WARM TEMPS/LOW RH'S WILL RESULT IN THE DRYING OF SOILS FROM
AREAS THAT DID MANAGE TO RECEIVE RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
THUS MAINTAINING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO WHETHER A WEAK LOW/TROUGH THAT
MAY CUT OFF OVER TX FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE ABLE TO GARNER ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR THE RETURN OF SCATTERED CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE THICK TODAY AND FOR A
WHILE YET, BUT SHOULD MIX IN SOME VFR BY MID AFTN AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL KEEP N/NE 5-15KT TODAY, TONIGHT AND AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LOW IS LIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE
GULF COAST OVERNIGHT, SPREADING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD TS
MOVG IN FROM THE E/SE AROUND THE LOWS. MEANWHILE, THE BACKDOOR
PUSH OF NE WINDS WILL DEEPEN AND SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT FROM N TO S
BY LATE SUNDAY, BUT RAINS SHOULD TAPER OFF MID A.M. FOR MOST
TERMINALS. BACK TO BLUE SKY OPS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 82 65 86 / 40 40 10 0
MLU 71 82 64 86 / 40 50 10 0
DEQ 65 85 57 85 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 66 82 60 84 / 30 20 0 0
ELD 67 82 58 86 / 30 30 10 0
TYR 68 81 64 85 / 40 30 10 0
GGG 68 82 62 85 / 40 40 10 0
LFK 72 81 67 86 / 30 40 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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