867
FXUS64 KSHV 181151
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BRING BOTH CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND POSSIBLY URBAN FLASH
FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK WILL QUICKLY TREND
BELOW NORMAL BY MID AND LATE WEEK DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER
AND STORMY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING CONTINUES TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW THAT EXTENDS FROM
ROUGHLY THE WEST COAST OF THE US AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. WITHIN THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH EXISTS A NOTABLE AREA
OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY, AND CAN BE
EASILY DETECTING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH, A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS DEFINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A LOOK CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE REVEALS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND
BERMUDA, WITH ITS RIDGE INFLUENCE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE CYCLONE IS DETECTED NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER, WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
AND TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION.
THE ABOVE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FOUR STATE REGION IN DEEP SW ALOFT ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TONIGHT, WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STREAMING OFF
THE GULF AND MAKING FOR A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY SPARKED, LIKELY AIDED IN PART BY SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND PERHAPS THE PASSAGE OF SOME
SUBTLE VORT MAXES IN THE SW FLOW.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S (WITH SOME AREAS HANGING IN THE UPPER 70S).
MONDAY WILL POTENTIALLY BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND
REALLY THE FORECAST PERIOD. A CLOUDY AND HUMID START SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT COVERAGE WILL WAIT TO INCREASE UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
WORKS IN TANDEM WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALREADY IN
PLACE. THIS SHOULD YIELD BETWEEN 1000-2000J/KG OF MLCAPE, POSSIBLY
AIDED BY SUBTLE VORT MAX ACTIVITY. WITHOUT A DISTINCT MECHANISM FOR
LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE ON MONDAY, ISOLATED SINGLE-CELL
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED, MAINLY CARRYING A THREAT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A FAIRLY TIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL YIELD BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY, WITH AREAS ACROSS EAST TEXAS
FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK
CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY BUT NEAR-
TERM AND/OR REAL-TIME OBSERVATIONS COULD DICTATE OTHERWISE.
A PROLONGED AND VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE SHAPE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. AS THE
FRONT PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS OUR REGION. LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH THE HELP OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RATHER
SUFFICIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TX LOOKS TO YIELD OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO A WIND AND HAIL THREAT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LACKING INGREDIENT WITHIN THIS SETUP WILL BE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WHICH COULD INHIBIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER,
THERE COULD STILL REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO BE PROBLEMATIC.
BY MID-WEEK, THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUING TO FEATURE TROUGHING OFF THE BAJA
REGION, DEEP SW FLOW AND A CONTINUED STREAM OF H5 DISTURBANCES COULD
PROMISE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND LIKELY EVEN INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT STALLS AND WHERE THE MOST
PROBABLE AREAS/REGIONS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ITS
VICINITY IS CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE THIS FAR OUT. SO THE BOTTOM
LINE WILL EMPHASIZE THAT CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST HIGH IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW, BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN, PROVIDED MORE CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED PERIODS
OF RAINFALL.
CK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO LOW VFR AND OR A SCATTERING OUT OF THESE CEILINGS BY
LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT COVERAGE WILL NOT WARRANT A
MENTION IN THIS 06Z PACKAGE. OTHERWISE THE GRADIENT WIND IS
ANOTHER OBSTACLE TO DEAL WITH TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SSE TO S WINDS
NEAR 10-16KT BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN NEAR 30KTS.
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS
WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER. THOSE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. REINTRODUCED
MVFR CEILINGS TO MOST ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER, IT MAY
BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 75 90 71 / 20 20 50 70
MLU 91 74 91 70 / 30 20 40 70
DEQ 87 71 84 65 / 20 30 70 70
TXK 91 74 90 68 / 10 30 80 60
ELD 89 73 90 68 / 10 30 50 60
TYR 89 75 89 69 / 10 30 70 70
GGG 89 75 90 70 / 10 30 70 70
LFK 90 76 91 72 / 10 20 50 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...13
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