520
FXUS64 KSHV 030018
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
718 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING POSING A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS,
GENERALLY IN THE 80S, WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOST
LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS SHOULD BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 20 AND 30 CORRIDORS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS,
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COUPLE OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE 18Z KSHV RAOB INDICATED STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND AN UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE. THE STRONG BUOYANCY HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME VERY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO BUILD DEEP, ROBUST CONVECTION. A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL
THE CONVECTION AND THE COLD FRONT EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH PWAT VALUES SUGGEST
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF WET MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER, LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE A THREAT WITH THE TALLEST AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THESE
STORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.
GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS, FLASH FLOODING MAY
BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN LOCATIONS AND FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS.
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE REGION HELPING TO BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY IN THE
80S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK ALLOWING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH, ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER,
STRONGER, AND SLOWER MOVING TROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CAPPING, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BROAD VERTICAL ASCENT AND THE LACK
OF A FRONT TO SERVE AS A FOCUS MECHANISM MEANS CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST TEXAS WHERE VERTICAL
ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
NUTTALL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, CONVECTION HAS LARGELY SLIPPED TO OUR
SOUTH FOR THIS CYCLE WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FROPA. CURRENTLY WINDS
VARY IN THE WAKE OF THIS LARGE PUSH, ALONG WITH MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVHD. LAST OF THE LIGHT RAIN IS GOING TO LOOM OVER
KLFK FOR HOURS THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO GO AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE W/NW 10-30KT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO E/NE AND
PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
STATES, WHICH WILL THEN VEER TO SE AGAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR, MAINLY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 87 71 85 / 20 10 20 20
MLU 71 86 69 86 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 69 86 68 84 / 0 0 0 30
TXK 71 89 70 87 / 0 0 10 20
ELD 69 85 67 84 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 72 89 71 88 / 20 10 10 30
GGG 72 88 70 86 / 10 10 20 30
LFK 72 88 70 86 / 40 20 20 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page