856
FXUS64 KSHV 230047
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
747 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- WE WILL SEE A VERY BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT LATER THIS
WEEK, MOST NOTABLY FELT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
- WHILE IT IS STILL VERY EARLY, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS
POSSIBLE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CU ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. AND AS OF WRITING THIS, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME RETURNS POP UP ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION START TO TICK UPWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THINKING THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH WITH HOW WELL WE OVER ACHIEVED
YESTERDAY, I COULD SEE THINGS HAPPENING IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE CONVECTION POPS UP, THINGS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AGAIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FROM HERE, I HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE THAT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WILL BE DRY
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND WHEN I SAY SLIGHTLY I
MEAN STILL ABOVE NORMAL AND STILL HOT, BUT NOT AS HOT. THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE ONE OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE THOUGH, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 60S. THIS BRIEF "COOL DOWN" WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MAKE A 360 AND START HEADING BACK TOWARDS THE
CENTURY MARK FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BUT HERE IS WHERE THINGS GET
A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND WORTHWHILE TO DISCUSS. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL MOVE INTO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND A LARGE CLOSED
LOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS COULD BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
NOW THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THAT IT IS MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY, DON'T
GET TOO HOOKED ON THE IDEA AS TIMING, LOCATION AND DETAILS WILL
MOST LIKELY CHANGE DRAMATICALLY. BUT I AM SAYING THERE IS A
CHANCE. /33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FOR THE 23/00Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 MPH. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 95 70 91 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 72 95 67 91 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 67 91 62 90 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 71 92 66 88 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 68 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 73 95 70 93 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 71 97 68 93 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 73 95 72 92 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...20
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