183
FXUS64 KSHV 090603
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
103 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- WE CAN EXPECT 80S ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY AS OUR WARMING TREND
CONTINUES, AND YET NOT MUCH 24 HOUR CHANGE ON OUR DEW POINTS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SKIRT NEARBY OUR SOUTHER TIER OF PARISHES
AND COUNTIES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH AN UPTICK IN MIN RH LEVELS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
OUR DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH THE 24 HOUR CHANGES
MORE SIGNIFICANT OVER E TX AND EVEN LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG
I-49 DUE TO GOOD MIXING TODAY. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON'S TO COME WITH SOME GUSTINESS, AND WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY AS OUR DEW POINTS BOOST INTO THE 50S RANGE FOR THURSDAY
AND SOME 60S BY FRIDAY WEST OF I-49. SO THATS GOOD NEWS FOR THE
TEEN GUSTS THAT WILL MATERIALIZE EACH AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO S/SW WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE RIDING INLAND OFF THE GULF. THE UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL TRAIL A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY DOWN
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DOWN THE FACE OF THE DEVELOPING WEAK UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND MS RIVER VALLEY. SO NOT MUCH CHANGE
FOR US OTHER THAN SOME LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE WEEKEND MORNINGS, BUT
STILL PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS AND WARMING UNDER THE RIDGING.
MEANWHILE, THE LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A
CLOSED CORE LOW FILLING, WILL BE DROPPING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE AND SHUNT OUR UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS
WILL ADD CLOUDS TO OUR SKIES WITH RAINFALL NOT FAR BEHIND. THE
FIRST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL FOCUS OVER TEXAS WHERE THE RICHER
MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN AND SLIGHT CHANCES WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO MORE OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA, BUT AGAIN WE WILL NEED
TO WAIT FOR REINFORCEMENTS ALONG THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH.
THIS IS WHERE THAT NEEDED SW FLOW WILL BE INCREASING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AREAWIDE AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW SCHOOL/WORK WEEK. THE
WPC QPF FORECASTS LOOK BEST FOR US ON DAY 4 SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH SOME BETTER THAN ONE INCH TOTALS FOR OUR I-30 CORRIDOR. THEN
AS WE WAIT ON THE REINFORCEMENTS TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL
REFOCUS OVER NE TX AND SPREAD INTO ALL OF OUR AREA WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN THE TENTH TO HALF INCH RANGE. SO NOT REALLY A SOAKER
ANYWHERE, BUT STEADY INCREASES WILL HELP EACH DAY AS WE MOVE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER AND HEAVIER COVERAGE UNDER
THE WEIGHT OF THE LONG WAVE ENERGY RUNNING THE FILLING CORE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS TIME, WE WILL CONTINUE WARMING LOWS EACH DAY, AND OUR
HIGHS WILL KEEP IN THE LOW TO MID 80S RANGE WITH TUESDAY BEARING
A GRADIENT OF RAIN COOLED 70S ALONG I-30 AND MID TO UPPER 80S EAST
OF I-49. THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL LINGER, BUT ORGANIZATION
WILL BE LACKING ONCE THE PARENT CORE LOW GETS TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. ALSO NOTE WORTHY DURING THIS TIME, THE SPC OUTLOOKS
SPORT A SLIGHT RISK FOR MORE AND MORE OF OUR AREA BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW EXITS, DEPICTED ON THEIR DAYS 6 AND 7 OUTLOOK FOR EARLY
TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS 24HR TAF CYCLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL GET THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITHOUT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
BUT LOOK FOR A DESCENT CU FIELD BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE. ALSO LOOK FOR THIS HIGH
CLOUDS TO RETURN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AIRSPACE TODAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE AID OF MIXING, WINDS WILL BECOME S TO SE WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 7-12KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NE
TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 61 83 62 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 83 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 80 56 82 57 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 82 62 82 63 / 0 0 20 10
GGG 82 61 83 61 / 0 0 20 10
LFK 82 61 80 62 / 0 0 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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