207
FXUS64 KSHV 140630
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER WITH MID AND UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EACH DAY, EXTENDING
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES AREN'T ZERO, THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, PROVIDING
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN BY NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE HEAT MARCHES ON THIS WEEK IN WHAT IS HOPEFULLY SUMMER'S LAST
GASP AFTER AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE SUMMER SEASON. THE CULPRIT, A NEARLY PERMANENT
UPPER RIDGE, HAS BARELY DEVIATED FROM ITS DEFAULT POSITION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK, DEFLECTING THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
TODAY WITH A MORE ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE INFLUENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AS IT BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR EAST. THE RESULTING PUSH
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY OUR EASTERN
ZONES SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS WITH LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS HOT ENVIRONMENT,
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY STORM BECOMING SEVERE WITH A DOWNBURST WIND
THREAT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S.
BEYOND TODAY, PERSISTENCE WILL CARRY THE DAY IN TERMS OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES LIKELY BEING EXTENDED BEYOND TUESDAY WITH VERY
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CAREFULLY
IMPLEMENTED THIS WEEK WITH ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND ESPECIALLY
YOUTH SPORTS. THE DANGEROUS HEAT RISK WILL ONLY FURTHER ESCALATE
THROUGH MID-WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT INTO LATE WEEK WHEN HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES ARE SCHEDULED.
IF YOU'RE WONDERING WHEN CHANGES MAY BE FINALLY COMING OUR WAY,
MODEL TRENDS DO CONTINUE TO FAVOR A BREAK IN THIS HEAT BY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS LOW SHOULD HELP TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE FARTHER EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE ALSO PROVIDING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL. FOR
NOW, IT APPEARS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF
US WITH SUNDAY SHOWING BETTER PROMISE FOR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DO
LOOK TO BE IN PLAY BEYOND THAT AS WE LOOK TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL
ON SEPTEMBER 22ND WITH GREAT ANTICIPATION.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF UPDATE...NO MAJOR CONCERNS TO REPORT ON FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. WE DO STILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF VCTS IN THERE FOR MOST
TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING FOR OUR EAST
TEXAS TERMINALS WHERE CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
BUT AGAIN BE WEARY OF ANY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. WE WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD.
/33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 99 77 98 77 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 100 75 99 76 / 40 20 10 0
DEQ 99 72 99 72 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 99 76 99 76 / 20 10 10 0
ELD 100 73 99 74 / 30 20 10 0
TYR 98 75 98 75 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 100 74 100 75 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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