445
FXUS64 KSHV 070538
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1238 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. INCREMENTAL
WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN TO THE EASTERN ARKLATEX THIS WEEKEND AS
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. FLASH
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS:
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHER THAN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS, THERE ISN'T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING OVER THE ARK-LA-TX. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
THE 10 CDT UPDATE FROM NHC HAS CLASSIFIED NINE AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION, BUT OTHERWISE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS. TD NINE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AND MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THERE
IS STILL MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH, SPEED, AND TRACK OF THIS
STORM, BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MORE OF AN
EASTWARD TRACK COMPARED TO SOME TROPICAL MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
OVER THE COURSE OF THE COMING DAYS AND STILL BRING RAIN TO PARTS
OF THE ARK-LA-TX DESPITE THE EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT AND SLOWER
MOVEMENT. AS OF NOW, RAIN COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AR AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAD HIGHLIGHTED, LIKELY DUE TO SOME GREATER SYSTEM
EXPANSION EXPECTED COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO, THEY REMAIN FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE.
WPC QPF REMAINS AROUND OR BELOW 1" OF RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY
EVENING IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE LOW QPF
COULD CHANGE WITH GREATER AGREEMENT ON TD NINE'S TRACK IN THE
COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY IF THE TRACK SHIFTS WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN
THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
ANY CHANGES.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
SEEING SOME 5-6KFT AND 12-15KFT MOISTURE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHERN AIRSPACE CURRENTLY AND WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
CEILINGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MOISTURE IN THE LFK VICINITY,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. FOR THAT MATTER, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WELL. LOOK FOR MOSTLY N TO ENE WINDS WITH SPEEDS NEAR
OR BELOW 10KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 63 93 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 57 90 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 60 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 59 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 65 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 63 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 66 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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