417
FXUS64 KSHV 142311
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020
AVIATION
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD,
ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE AREA INTO TOMORROW. SOME OF THE HEAVIER CLOUD ACTIVITY WILL BE
IN E. TEXAS, WHERE ALL SITE WILL CARRY SCT015 PAST 15/10Z. KLFK
WILL REACH MVFR CEILINGS PAST 15/11Z DUE TO A THICKER, BROKEN
CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
/44/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE CENTER OF A BROAD, BUT SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TWO WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, ONE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND ONE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI, HAVE HELPED
INITIATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA, ACROSS ARKANSAS,
AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND
GEORGIA. THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
ARE BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST AND HAS BEEN AS CLOSE AS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, BUT REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH.
SO CLOSE, YET SO FAR AWAY.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED (I'M NOT COMPLAINING), BUT WE HAVE STILL
HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING LEFT TODAY. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR MOST OF THE REGION, BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS,
NOTABLY THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF SHREVEPORT AND THE TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY ARE VERY CLOSE TO VERIFYING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EVER CLOSER, WHAT LITTLE RAIN IS OUT
THERE WILL BE PUSHED FARTHER AWAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT, THIS MAY KEEP OUR
HEAT INDEX VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN, SO
ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AREAWIDE FOR WEDNESDAY.
CN
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
PATTERN TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH
THIS SETUP, EXPECT MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF I-20 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
PLACING THE ARKLATEX ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHERE
UPPER-FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE AREAWIDE, TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING A BREAK FROM ONGOING HEAT
HEADLINES FOR A CHANGE. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 10
MLU 77 98 77 96 / 0 10 0 40
DEQ 76 96 76 96 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 77 95 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
ELD 77 98 77 96 / 0 10 0 20
TYR 77 96 77 95 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 77 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 77 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ073.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>072.
LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ077.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ153-
166-167.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>152-165.
05/CN/44
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