026
FXUS64 KSHV 182117
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING, AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
- A FLOODING THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CONVERGENCE BAND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARTHUR DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
ZONES TODAY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OVER 20" OF RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOME PORTIONS OF AVOYELLES PARISH, WHERE MOST
OF THE CONVECTED BANDS HAVE TRAINED TODAY. SHORT-TERM PROGS AND
RADAR TRENDS ARE STARTING TO PUSH THIS BAND NORTHWARD, WHICH COULD
GET PRECIPITATION AT GRANT, LASALLE, AND SOUTHERN NATCHITOCHES
PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD OUT THE REGION TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRANT, LASALLE, AND CALDWELL PARISHES
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, OUR ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO WESTERN TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY, AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. A POTENT
SHORT-WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IN FACT, PROGS HAVE THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CLOSING OFF. THIS WILL SLOW THE ESE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH,
KEEPING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING, AS THE SHORT-WAVE FINALLY EXITS NORTH LOUISIANA. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF THE AREA WITH A
MARGINAL RISK ON FRIDAY, AS DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH
THIS CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY, AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT
NORTH OF I-20, WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FLOW. CAN'T RULE OUT
THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES DURING THIS PERIOD, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE THE THE LACK OF RAINFALL WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
BACK INTO THE SW CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A
RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES, AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES. ONE THING OF NOTE, WITH ALL OF THE RECENT
AND EXPECTED RAINFALL, DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOILS ARE STARTING TO BECOME SATURATED, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN FLOODING CONCERNS GOING FORWARD. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
FOR THE 18/18Z TAF UPDATE, ANOTHER ROUND OF VCSH/VCTS/-SHRA IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS. UNTIL THEN, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ARE
PRODUCING SOME -RA AND MVFR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AIRSPACE WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS. VFR CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 90 76 88 / 40 60 60 60
MLU 77 88 75 88 / 40 60 60 60
DEQ 74 86 71 86 / 50 60 60 60
TXK 76 85 73 86 / 50 60 60 60
ELD 75 85 72 85 / 50 60 60 60
TYR 78 90 75 88 / 40 50 70 60
GGG 78 90 75 89 / 40 60 70 60
LFK 79 94 77 91 / 10 40 60 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ059-070.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-
017-018.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ020>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...20
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