321
FXUS64 KSHV 220009
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR US THIS WEEKEND.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR COOLER NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY
WINDS INTO OUR FOUR-STATE AREA TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- WINDS WILL SHIFT RIGHT BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A RENEWED
WARMING TREND AS THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS ALL WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
BEAUTIFUL SUNNY WEEKEND GOING FOR OUR FOUR STATES WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S JUST
ABOUT AREAWIDE. OUR WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND A SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED OUT OVER THE GULF. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS HEADED FOR THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKE
STATES, AND WILL KEEP AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER US FOR
SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS TODAY ARE TOPPING THE 20 MPH MARK AND THAT
WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE GRADIENT FOR ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THANKFULLY, OUR RECENT SPRING GREEN UP FROM
LAST GOOD RAIN HAS OUR SOIL MOISTURE BETTER OFF AND THERE IS EVEN
SOME EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HELPING NOW TOO. TOO MUCH WIND FOR FOG,
BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD FOR US EARLY SUNDAY. THEN
THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL HAVE US BACK WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT
OUR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH LEVELS WILL REMAIN NON CRITICAL.
HOWEVER, SOME FUELS REMAIN DRY AND WITH GUSTS, SO OUR ELEVATED
WILDFIRE THREAT REMAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE CANADIAN AIR MASS BEHIND THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKE LOW TO BE A HARDY 1031MB OVER IOWA BY EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL SPRAWL DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
BACKING OUR WINDS TO EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER SPEEDS
TO START THE NEW WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL EASE BACK TO LOW TO MID 70S OVER OUR OK/AR COUNTIES WITH
LOWER 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING
THE AIR MASS WILL BE SHIFTING OVER INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES, ALLOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO WORK BACK OVER OUR
AREA AND MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR THAT MATTER. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE BETTER ON OUR MIN RH LEVELS, BUT MORE WARM AND DRY SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SW
WITH A 590DAM CORE OVER ARIZONA DURING MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A
LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR US, BUT NO MORE MOISTURE OR LIFT AGAIN
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE A 1036MB HIGH
BACK DOWN ACROSS THE NATION'S MID SECTION WITH SOME ADDED CLOUDS,
BUT STILL NOT MUCH OF A RAIN CHANCE WITH ANOTHER BACK DOOR
APPROACH. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE NATURAL STATE BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK, BUT
GENERALLY STILL DRY FOR US. WE WILL SEE MORE EASTERLY WINDS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO KICK OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
/24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CIGS ADVANCING
NORTHWARD, WITH VFR RECOVERY EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE SLIGHT DECOUPLING IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BREEZY S/SW TERMINAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AGAIN TOMORROW AS SUSTAINED 10-15KT WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
20-25KT GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.
KNAPP
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS OUR
FOUR-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO OUR
ONGOING EXTREME AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MAINTAINING VERY
DRY FUELS. OUR SUSTAINED WINDS FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BE
NEAR 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. THIS ELEVATED WILDFIRE
THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING WITH LOWERING HUMIDITY. THE
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FOUR-STATE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER SHIFTING WINDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT THE WILDFIRE
THREAT REMAINS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS OUR FOUR-STATE AREA DUE TO THE
ONGOING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PLEASE REPORT ANY WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT AND OTHER LOCAL OFFICIALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 87 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 61 87 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 57 89 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 64 90 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 60 87 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 63 89 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 61 88 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 61 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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