021
FXUS64 KSHV 261754
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1154 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED AREAWIDE
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN THIRD BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES POISED TO EJECT OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AS
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND WEAK-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
COULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GULF
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED BUOYANCY
ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
ITS WAKE.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ON FRIDAY,
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S.
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ON
SATURDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR AS A
WEAKNESS MOVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ALOFT. INCREASED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTH TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH UPPER-FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL ALONG THE FRONT, CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE
WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS, SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ARKLATEX BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER-FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND A
SURFACE AND UPPER-LOW TRANSLATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA ALONG AND S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A
PORTION OF THE EVENING NEAR A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL DRIFT S
THROUGH THE AREA FROM EXTREME SE OK/NE TX AND SW AR. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 23Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/NE LA, POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MLU TERMINAL WHERE
VCTS WAS BUMPED BACK TO 00Z, AND EXTENDED THROUGH MID-EVENING. ANY
RESIDUAL CU FIELD SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S WITH THE
FROPA THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY 09Z
FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA, WITH PATCHY FG DEVELOPING FARTHER
S INTO CNTRL LA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX, WHICH MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. ONCE THEY DO, MOSTLY SKC SHOULD
RETURN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. S OR VRB WINDS AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME LIGHT N WITH THE FROPA LATER TONIGHT. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 54 78 51 / 20 20 0 0
MLU 79 53 75 48 / 30 30 0 0
DEQ 78 44 75 44 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 80 50 77 50 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 78 48 75 45 / 20 10 0 0
TYR 83 53 80 54 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 83 52 79 51 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 81 56 80 54 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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