804
FXUS64 KSHV 230623
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
123 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING
WORK WEEK, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY TREND SLIGHTLY
COOLER (NEAR OR BELOW 100 DEGREES) BY LATE WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20, BEFORE A CLUSTER OF STORMS SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
EASTERN LOUISIANA MONDAY MORNING.
- CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THESE STORMS MONDAY SHOULD YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF NCNTRL AND ERN AR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH SE AR/NCNTRL MS ATTM, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SFC OBS AND
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDING
FROM WRN BOWIE/CASS AND ERN MARION COUNTIES IN NE TX TO NEAR THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA, WITH ACCOMPANYING WEAK FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SINKING S INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITHIN A STILL MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS
CHARACTERISTIC OF MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND PW'S OF 1.8-1.9
INCHES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST S OF THIS
BNDRY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS
SUGGESTING THAT THIS BNDRY BECOMING STATIONARY LATER THIS MORNING
SOMEWHERE OVER E TX/N LA, AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY S OF I-20
ACROSS E TX/N LA, ESPECIALLY AS ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE SLIDING SE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE NM/W TX UPPER
RIDGE POTENTIALLY ENHANCES CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ONCE HEATING IS
MAXIMIZED. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CIGS THAT THE PROGS WANT TO HANG ON TO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS MID
LEVEL IMPULSE, WHICH MAY TEND TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ALSO CONSIDERING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR AND JUST S OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC BNDRY, WHICH WOULD BE ENHANCED ESPECIALLY
SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CIGS OCCUR AND IF THEY DIMINISH ENTIRELY.
GIVEN THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND TRENDS IN RECENT DAYS, HAVE PLAYED
THE PESSIMIST AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MIXING GIVEN THE VERY DRY/PARCHED GROUNDS
SUCH THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM 105-110 DEGREES
AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. A FEW LOCALES MAY EXCEED THE 110 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX THRESHOLD FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING SHOULD TEMPS GET
HOTTER THAN FORECAST OR MIXING IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED, BUT THE
EXTENT OF ELEVATED CIGS TODAY PROVIDES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REFRAIN FROM UPGRADING THE HEAT ADVISORY TO A WARNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
WHILE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE ISOLATED CONVECTION, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH OUR FOCUS WILL TURN
UPSTREAM OVER NRN AR LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE SE THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION, WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA
AS THEY SLIDE SE INTO ERN AR/NRN AND WRN MS. STORM ORGANIZATION
SHOULD INCREASE LATE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40KT SWRLY LLJ,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION
POSSIBLY AFFECTING AREAS OF SRN AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA BY/AFTER
DAYBREAK THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. DID EXPAND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FARTHER W INTO SRN AR/N LA FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST/NBM, WITH THE THICKENING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LIKELY ALSO
INFLUENCING THE MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL,
RESULTING IN COOLER (SUB 100 DEGREE) TEMPS ESPECIALLY E OF THE
I-49 CORRIDOR, THUS ENDING THEIR STRING OF CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE
DAYS. WHILE THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO MONDAY, HAVE PUNTED THIS DECISION TO THE DAY SHIFT AS A
PORTIONS OF THE ERN ZONES SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE OMITTED FROM THE
ADVISORY GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS/THICKENING CIGS. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CIGS THIN DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK E
INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT RETURNING AREAWIDE TUESDAY, IT'S LIKELY
THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL AGAIN BE NEEDED AREAWIDE, ALTHOUGH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY MID AND LATE WEEK
AS THE RIDGE CENTER BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK W INTO THE DESERT
SW. THUS, MAX TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETREAT A BIT AWAY FROM THE
CENTURY MARK EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER E TX, WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
NWRLY FLOW YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY LATE WEEK FOR AT LEAST THE ERN HALF/TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW
FLOW, CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MAY EXPAND FARTHER W AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS HERE AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THIS NW FLOW REGIME
WILL ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
EXTREME HEAT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FOR THE 23/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY AROUND LFK. HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO
SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME NEAR 6 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN RELAX TO AROUND
3 KNOTS AFTER 24/00Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF I-20. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 100 79 101 / 0 10 10 0
MLU 75 95 75 99 / 10 40 20 10
DEQ 73 99 72 104 / 10 20 10 0
TXK 76 100 77 102 / 10 20 10 10
ELD 75 96 75 100 / 20 30 10 10
TYR 80 104 79 104 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 78 104 79 104 / 0 10 10 0
LFK 77 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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