892
FXUS64 KSHV 292321
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB EACH AFTERNOON FROM 105 TO 109
DEGREES AREAWIDE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RETURNED
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-49, AS A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGES INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THE FOUR STATE REGION UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NM/TX BORDER. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ONCE AGAIN THE PERSISTANT HOT
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 90S,
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN WINDS THAT
BRING MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL SEE US REACH HEAT INDICES UP TO
110 ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX. AS A RESULT, THE AREAWIDE HEAT
ADVISORY THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN EXTENDED, NOW
THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY NIGHT. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE GOOD HEAT
SAFETY, HYDRATE OFTEN, LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE, HAVE ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING, AND CHECK ON HEAT SENSITIVE NEIGHBORS.
AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY LIMITED TO THE ZONES
IN OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH OUR FORECASTS AND HI-
RES MODELS IN THE FRONT BACKDOORING SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST TO A LINE
FROM ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WHILE WIDER CLOUD COVERAGE AND
INCREASED POPS WILL HELP TO LIMIT OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES, OPTED TO
EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY AREAWIDE THROUGH 8 PM THURSDAY AS A
MOISTURE POOL BUILDS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, KEEPING DEW POINTS AND OUR HEAT INDICES ELEVATED.
ON FRIDAY OUR FRIENDLY NEIGHBORHOOD RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK
OVER US FROM THE WEST, PUSHING OUT THE FRONT AND KEEPING MOST OUR
ZONES HOT AND DRY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND START TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL KICK OUT THIS RIDGE TO THE WEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ALONG WITH IT INCREASED POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RELIEF WON'T LAST FOR TOO LONG AS BY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE RIDGING WHICH IS ALL TOO
FAMILIAR. THE EXACT SPECIFICS OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE FURTHER
NAILED DOWN IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
/OZIMEK/24
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING VCSH
CONDITIONS TO ELD/TXK EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS ACROSS THE GGG/LFK/TYR/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS ON THURSDAY WHILE MLU/ELD CAN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS.
/05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACKDOOR IN WITH OUR COOL
FRONT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 96 79 98 / 0 20 10 10
MLU 77 95 77 97 / 20 50 10 30
DEQ 74 95 74 98 / 10 30 10 0
TXK 76 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 0
ELD 75 93 75 95 / 30 40 10 10
TYR 78 98 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 77 98 78 100 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 76 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page