271
FXUS64 KSHV 010620
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
- NICE LATE SUMMER SEASON DAY ON TAP FOR OUR LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S IN THE ARKLATEX, BUT STILL A RANGE OF
80S NORTH OF I-30.
- THE SHORT WORK/SCHOOL WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, BUT WE WILL BE DONE WITH MOST
RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS BEHIND A COOL FRONT, SO OUR LOWS
WILL BE COOLING AS WE FINALLY SEE STARS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN FLUX AS
THE WEEKEND COOL FRONT NOW LOOKS TO HOLD UP ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
WE HAD QUITE A RANGE OF TEMPS FOR OUR SUNDAY WITH STILL MORE RAIN
AND CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS, BUT WHERE RAIN DID
NOT FALL WE SAW PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH AND
SOME LOW 90S. OUR WINDS WERE SE BY LATE DAY WITH A SHIFT BACK TO
E/NE FOR LABOR DAY. WE HAVE A WEAK COOL FRONT ON APPROACH FOR
TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS ON TAP. THESE NW WINDS ON THE SURFACE WILL
DRY OUT THE AIR A BIT WITH LESS HUMIDITY AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR
A FEW DAYS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE BULK OF COOLER TEMPS FOR US WILL BE FOUND TRENDING DOWN EACH
MORNING THIS WEEK WITH CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. BY THAT SAME TOKEN, FEWER CLOUDS AND WILL SEE A BIT
OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS, WHICH WILL BE IN UPPER
80S AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. HOWEVER, WITH THAT INITIAL NW WIND
ON TUESDAY WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR LESS
HUMIDITY WHICH WILL KEEP US OUT OF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. WINDS WILL BACK TO SW FOR FRIDAY, OUR
WARMEST TO HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL COME LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR. AT THIS TIME, THE
MODELS ARE MORE CONTENT TO KEEP THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. SO BEING ON THE EDGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES AGAIN, BUT THE REALLY
WET NW FLOW WILL SIMPLY BE MORE OF A ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT RUNNING
UNDER THE BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE
FRONT, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DAYTIME AND NIGHT TIME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO ASSIST, THE COOL FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH OF I-20 INTO
MORE OF NE TX AND LA BY SUNDAY. SO THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT CONCERN
FOR SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THROUGH THE SHORT WORK
WEEK WE WILL BE FREE OF ANY SUCH RISKS FROM THE WPC. AND OUR QPF
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING QUITE MANAGEABLE AT THIS TIME
WITH AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, VFR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TO START THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW ZONES OF THE
AIRSPACE, BUT CURRENTLY REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL TERMINALS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF ANY IMPACTS TO THE
LOCAL TERMINALS MATERIALIZES. FOR NOW, A MIX OF SCT/BKN COVERAGE
BETWEEN 7-9KFT EXISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
THEME FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTIVE HI-RES
SUGGESTS VCSH AND VCTS CLOSER TO 18Z THIS AFTERNOON, THEREFORE THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS DIRECT IMPACTS GIVEN
THE POPCORN STYLE OF THE CONVECTION IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DISSIPATING AFTER
00Z. TERMINAL WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE E/SE
PATTERN, AROUND 5KT.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGHOUT OUR
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 72 90 71 / 20 20 20 10
MLU 92 69 90 68 / 10 20 50 20
DEQ 84 64 84 63 / 20 20 30 10
TXK 88 67 87 66 / 20 20 20 10
ELD 89 65 88 65 / 10 20 40 10
TYR 87 70 87 68 / 30 10 20 0
GGG 89 69 89 67 / 30 20 20 10
LFK 91 70 91 69 / 30 10 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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