561
FXUS64 KSHV 161929
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
129 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SW WINDS VEERING NW, PRESENTING SOME
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES DROP OFF SHARPLY.
- INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REALLY RAMP
UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SE
AS IT CLEARS THE I-30 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE 60S WITH MID AND
UPPER 50S FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED.
MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY ALSO CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-20. AS A
RESULT, A SPOTTY CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP INVOF OF THE FRONT
AND FARTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS UNLIKELY WITH FROPA ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SE ZONES BY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE REGION ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY DESPITE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SHIFTING SE WITHIN THE DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 5KFT OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION AS GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND DRY WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY PIVOT EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY WITH OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO FOLLOW.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT A PROLONGED
FREEZE OF SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES TO LOWER AND MID 20S
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS COULD BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS WINTER
SEASON SO REMEMBER TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO WINTERIZE
AROUND YOUR HOME AHEAD OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SO
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED UNTIL
THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY
WILL COME AS A RESULT OF AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SW FLOW REGIME
WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH ADDITIONAL SIGNALS POINTING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND, CERTAINLY A PROMISING SIGN TO
HELP COMBAT OUR ONGOING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS/CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE THEN LEAVING SKC
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND
10KFT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD VFR CEILINGS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, GENERALLY AFTER 18Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD GUSTY WINDS (SUSTAINED AROUND
10-15KTS AND GUSTING TO 20-25KTS) AND A WIND SHIFT FROM W/SW TO
NW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AROUND 6-10KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY 10-12KTS AND
REMAINING NW.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 35 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 36 51 26 49 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 27 44 16 49 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 32 47 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 31 47 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 33 49 25 54 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 32 49 23 54 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 36 53 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...23
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