504
FXUS64 KSHV 270602
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1202 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT.
- MAYBE A FEW DEGREE COOL DOWN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE RIGHT BACK
INTO 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- STILL MONITORING THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY MID AND ESPECIALLY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
OUR SLOWING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED AS OF 10 PM THIS EVENING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN NE TX TO NEAR SHREVEPORT TO JUST
NORTH OF MONROE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS NE LA
AND WITH ANY REMAINING UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEING WELL EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION, HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE REMAINING POPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR EAST. WITH THE SLOWER NATURE OF THE FRONT,
DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT BUT
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE CAUGHT THESE AREAS NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE.
LOOK FOR A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER
80S SOUTHWEST. WHILE POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ON FRIDAY, AFTERNOON MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER
30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, THUS THE FIRE DANGER FOR FRIDAY WILL BE
ELEVATED BUT NOT AS HIGH AS IT COULD BE IF WE WERE EXPECTING
STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS.
WINDS QUICKLY TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH WILL REALLY HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS THERE WILL BE WEAK UPPER FORCING
IN A WNW FLOW ALOFT REGIME ACROSS OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
BUT NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH THE AID OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
AID IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE
PLAYERS IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GREAT BASIN AND A
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FIRST OF
THESE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY
ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY EJECT OUT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. GFS HAS
COME IN MUCH DRIER FOR WED COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS BUT WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON UPCOMING ECMWF RUNS TO SEE IF IT FOLLOWS SUIT. NBM POPS
ARE MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TO THE WETTER ECMWF AND THUS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS ON WED BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS INCREASE IN POPS GET PUSHED BACK A LITTLE TO
PERHAPS THU INTO FRI. BY FRIDAY, THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST RELOADS
AND MIGRATES QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WORK WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
FOR THE 27/06Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN AIRSPACE THROUGH 27/12Z. ISOLATED MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUD
CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-49 ONCE
AGAIN OVER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PATCHY FG IS ALSO MORE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE SAME PARTS OF THE AIRSPACE FROM 27/08Z-
15Z.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOUR-STATE AREA, TO HELP OUR FIRST
RESPONDERS PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 52 82 55/ 0 0 0 0
MLU 77 49 79 52/ 0 0 0 0
DEQ 77 45 79 50/ 0 0 10 20
TXK 79 51 82 56/ 0 0 0 10
ELD 76 47 79 51/ 0 0 0 0
TYR 81 54 83 57/ 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 51 83 55/ 0 0 0 0
LFK 81 52 83 54/ 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...16
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