792
FXUS64 KSHV 062338
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SCHEDULED SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN!
- PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. SUMMERTIME HEAT SAFETY
PLANS SHOULD BE REVIEWED AND READIED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THIS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NNE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST (2+ INCH PW VALUE) AIR MASS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC DIURNAL INSTABILITY CYCLE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MORE VIGOROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WHERE ACTIVITY REPEATEDLY TRAINS OVER THE SAME
AREAS. THE RELATIVE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE SORTS OF ISSUES IS
HIGHEST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OF SUCH ISSUES DO
NOT YET REACH THE THRESHOLD OF NEEDING A FLOOD WATCH.
IN ADDITION, THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR ON THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE IS MORE THAN IS
TYPICAL FOR EARLY SUMMER AND MAY PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME LOOSE STORM
ORGANIZATION AT TIMES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS NOT
HIGHLIGHTING ANY OFFICIAL RISKS FOR OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
THERE IS AN SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW EVENING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THIRTY CORRIDOR. THIS
RISK IS MAINLY TIED TO THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OWING
TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OTHER AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL BE HIGHER NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT IT STILL
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY. EVEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW, BUT NON-
ZERO, DUE TO THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIMITED A BIT BY
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS, BUT PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL DRIVE HEAT
INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S IN SOME SPOTS.
NWP GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER CONSISTENT IN PULLING THE DISTURBANCE
IN DEEP SW FLOW OFF TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT, SO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, WE STILL ANTICIPATE THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION AND GREATLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY IN THIS PERIOD, BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH EVEN SOME PATCHES OF UPPER 90S
SHOWING UP BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. ELEVATED HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND ONE OR TWO DAYS OF NEEDING HEAT
ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. NWP
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN (COMPARED TO RUNS FROM
YESTERDAY) ABOUT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A GREAT DEAL BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE ARE SOME SCENARIOS DEPICTING A COLD FRONT
IMPINGING ON OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. /50/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING DESPITE POCKETS OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WHERE THEN CEILINGS WILL DROP TO LOWER-END MVFR AND IFR.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY WHERE
THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND EVENTUALLY REACH VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH
LATE EVENING, HOWEVER, A SQUALL LINE MAY APPROACH WESTERN
TERMINALS (MAINLY TYR) AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST TOWARDS GGG, TXK, AND SHV. THEREAFTER,
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z AREA-WIDE
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC AROUND THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR INTO
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SE WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE TO
5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING S/SW EARLY SUNDAY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 18-20KTS.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 88 76 92 / 50 60 10 10
MLU 74 89 76 92 / 20 60 10 20
DEQ 70 84 72 90 / 70 70 40 10
TXK 73 88 74 93 / 60 70 20 10
ELD 72 86 73 91 / 50 60 10 20
TYR 73 88 75 92 / 30 40 10 10
GGG 73 88 75 92 / 40 50 10 10
LFK 73 88 75 92 / 30 50 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...50
AVIATION...23
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