682
FXUS64 KSHV 141728 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT MAY DAMAGE OR KILL
SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND COULD POSE A THREAT TO PERSONS
VULNERABLE TO THE COLD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH WARMER BY MIDWEEK, WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX IN THE 30S AND
40S ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, WINDS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED
AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM THE UPPER 20S INTO THE 30S EXPECTED TODAY.
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH EXPECTED TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL YIELD THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS SW
AR AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN JUST
ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSE TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
COULD SEE A POCKET OF WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR DAYBREAK.
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO RETURN WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY, A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH TO EMERGE INTO TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA AS THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SHIFTS EASTWARD.
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AREAWIDE. BECAUSE MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG CONVECTION OR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
FROM NE TO SW ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/WCNTRL LA THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS (SKC) EXPECTED IN THEIR WAKE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME AREAS OF THIN CIRRUS MAY SPILL SE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BEFORE THICKENING FROM THE W LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NE WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME ENE AND DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 44 26 50 35 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 22 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 20 45 28 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 41 23 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 37 19 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 27 51 39 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 45 24 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 26 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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