056
FXUS64 KSHV 311136 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
636 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE MS RIVER NEAR THE BOOT HEAL OF MO WITH
LINGERING SUBSIDENCE FOR MOST OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PICKING UP SOUTH OF I-20 AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST, ALSO
ADDING HUMIDITY AND SOME WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
- THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY MIDWEEK
AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL REFORM BACK OVER THE PLAINS STATES AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN THE BOOKS WITH NO NEW RECORDS, BUT CONTINUED
TRIPLE DIGITS OVER EAST TEXAS WILL LINGER ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. WE
DID HAVE ONE LONELY SHOWER TODAY NEAR SAM RAYBURN SOUTH OF
PINELAND IN THE MID AFTERNOON. AND WHILE MOST OF US WILL SEE
LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM, WE COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EDGE TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES LATE ON MONDAY OR EARLY EVENING.
OF COURSE, THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL SEE DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT EARLY ON MONDAY AND HAVE A MUCH
BETTER HANDLE ON CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, THE WATER VAPOR AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION BOTH SHOW THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPANDING
WITH SEVERAL HOT SPOTS THAT COULD WRAP UP A CORE VERY QUICKLY OVER
THE WARM GULF. THE DISTURBANCE IS 125 MILES S OF GRAND ISLE AND
IS DRIFTING WEST NORTHWESTWARD. A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
MAY SOON FORM AND WOULD BE NAMED EDOUARD.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER CORE
LOW WEAKNESS AT 588DAM, WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LEAD ON THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WRAPPING UP TO 1006MB. THE ECMWF IS LIKEWISE,
BUT NOT AS DEEP 1010MB. BOTH SPORT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
LATEST RUN. SO FAR, THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY COMPACT WITH IMPACTS FOR
OUR AREA NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY ASIDE FROM SOME APPROACHING
CONVECTION LATE DAY. HOWEVER, IF WELL ORGANIZED, SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD END MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY SUNSET AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
OUR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE ALREADY BUILDING THE
SOLID RAIN CHANCES INTO OUR AREA ALREADY, AND IF THE STORM WRAPS
UP, THESE HIGH CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LIKELY. THE WPC
IS HIGH LIGHTING MARGINAL EROS FOR OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS COUNTIES.
SO MAKE SURE AND KEEP TABS ON THIS POTENTIAL FOR NEEDED RAINFALL.
ASIDE FROM ALL EYES ON THE GULF, THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY ARE MOVING
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BAHAMAS AND COULD END UP HELPING OUT
TOO, AS A GOOD COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DAMPEN THE MIGRATING UPPER RIDGE AND WEAKEN IT
COMPLETELY BY MIDWEEK. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE UPPER HEAT RIDGE
TO REFORM OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE WEEK.
THE GFS BUILDS IT TO 597 DAM, BUT THE ECMWF LIKES MORE WITH 599DAM
BY LABOR DAY AND BOTH OVER NEBRASKA. SO OUR WEEKEND MAY NOT BE SO
HOT WITH MORE CLOUDS AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING AS THE OHIO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH IS REINFORCED, WHICH WILL HELP TO BACKDOOR
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-49, BUT VERY SUBJECT
TO CHANGE. A PACIFIC CYCLONE COULD SOON FORM FROM A COUPLE OF
STRONG DISTURBANCES OUT THERE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF BAJA. ONE IS
70% LIKE THE NEW ORLEANS DISTURBANCE AND THE OTHER IS MORE LIKELY
AT 90% CHANCE OF FORMATION. THIS IS WHAT THE MODELS BOTH QUICKLY
WRAP UP LATE NEXT WEEKEND. SO SUFFICE IT TO SAY, THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER GENERALLY SEES THE PEAK OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND WILL
BEAR WATCHING FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 31/12Z TAF PERIOD. AN
AREA OF LOW AC CIGS OVER MUCH OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SW AR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING, WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY THIS TIME OR
MIDDAY AREAWIDE. WHILE THIS CU WILL LIFT INTO A LOW AC FIELD BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEY SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOWER CU POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NRN GULF JUST S OF THE LA COAST DRIFTS WNW TOWARDS THE EXTREME SE
TX COAST. ANY LOWER CIGS/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SSE OF THE LFK
TERMINAL THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER SE
AND DEEP E TX. VRB WINDS AROUND 5KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ESE
5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, EXCEPT LT/VRB AFTER 00Z AT MLU/ELD.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 77 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 96 76 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 98 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 101 77 100 75 / 0 0 10 10
GGG 102 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 10
LFK 98 75 95 74 / 10 0 40 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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