575
FXUS64 KSHV 261122
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
622 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
WARMING TREND DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PASSING FRONT MAY
MANAGE TO BRING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHILE RIDGING ALOFT AND A DRY AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE AT LEAST ONCE MORE, PERHAPS BOTH
MORNINGS THIS WEEKEND, BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO BECOME
APPARENT IN THE AFTERNOONS MOVING FORWARD. TODAY WILL SEE A FEW
UPPER 80S NORTH AND "ONLY" LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE, BUT TOMORROW WILL
SEE MIDDLE 90S START TO RETURN, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK UNDER AMPLIFYING RIDGING.
AS ADVERTISED RECENTLY, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE AND HOW SOON IT
WILL ARRIVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS FAVORING A
DELAYED PROGRESSION OF THE IMPACTING SYSTEMS. THE LATEST GFS
ILLUSTRATES A NOTICEABLE POSITIVE TILT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE,
WITH THE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE PLAINS, CREATING A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES LOOK TO TRY
AND RIDE THIS FLOW, WITH NBM POPS JUST GRAZING THE NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE ARKLATEX. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE ALOFT AND WARM
CONDITIONS FAVORING CONVECTIVE LIFT, ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOSES ITS DEFINITION AND GETS SWEPT NORTH AND
EAST, ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING MY MIDWEEK AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH WITH AN EMERGING CLOSED LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE TROUGH LOOKS POISED TO EJECT EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, CONDUCTING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. RAINFALL CHANCES MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, CONTINUING SOLIDLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH THIS BROAD PERIOD OF
MIDDLING PRECIP CHANCES DOES ILLUSTRATE THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME. TO THE EXTENT THAT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN BE DISCERNED AT ALL, IT MAY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY (GFS) TO AS LATE AS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (ECMWF).
THE TIMING AND MODE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEAR MONITORING THROUGH
THE COMING DAYS. LATE WEEK RAINFALL MAKES A DENT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BACK FROM
THE 70S INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
FOR THE 26/12Z TAF PERIOD...HIGH, THIN CIRRUS CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD OUR AIRSPACE AND LOOK FOR THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, ALONG WITH A WEAK CU FIELD ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR
WESTERN AIRSPACE. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR NE TO E TO SE WINDS AT MOST TERMINAL
LOCATIONS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 91 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 91 63 93 65 / 0 0 10 10
TXK 92 66 95 69 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 91 63 94 65 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 93 68 95 72 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 93 66 96 69 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 89 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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