611
FXUS64 KSHV 211917
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
217 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THROUGHOUT THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT
DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
- LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE BEYOND THE NEXT 7 DAYS SUGGESTS COMPLETE
EROSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN CLOSER TO HALLOWEEN INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NE
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME WARMTH AND SEASONABLY
COOL NIGHTS. IF IT WEREN'T FOR THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND A DIRE NEED
OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL, ONE COULD ARGUE IT'S THE PICTURE PERFECT
FORECAST FOR EARLY FALL. INDEED, THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE IS
QUITE PLEASANT ANYTIME OF THE YEAR BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE FALL
SEASON. MILD EVENINGS AND EVEN COOLER MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
THIS PATTERN EVEN AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD BY THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE, EXPECT
MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGHS BY AND LARGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FIRE DANGER AS MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OUT WEST
WILL BEGIN EJECTING INTO THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE
TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, IT WILL HELP
TO SLOWLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY ERODE IT COMPLETELY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY FINALLY BRING A WELCOME CHANGE
AS IT RELATES TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE
MONTH. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS ALMOST ENTIRELY DRY FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS DESPITE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE BY NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING OUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER IN TIME, MORE NOTABLE
RAIN CHANCES COULD FOLLOW BY THE VERY END OF THE MONTH JUST IN
TIME FOR HALLOWEEN. SO STAY TUNED AS WE MONITOR THESE TRENDS IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOR THE 21/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ANY PERIODIC INCREASES IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION, WHILE FEW250 WILL
REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY CIG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT
OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 47 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 47 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 84 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 50 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...16
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