873
FXUS64 KSHV 140623
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
123 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALTO, TX TO MAGNOLIA, AR.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR
TO THE REGION.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BREEZE CONDITIONS AND
VERY DRY AIR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA AND A POTENT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS TO RESULTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM WEST
TEXAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND MISSOURI. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN
AND ELONGATE, WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FARTHER EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. INCREASING INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY
INCREASES, AND COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST TEXAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, A STRONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SAG FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO ARKANSAS. THIS MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. I CANNOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT A SEVERE STORM
IN THIS AREA, MAINLY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, BUT THE CHANCES
SHOULD HIGHER FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT
WHERE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
UPPER TROUGH BREAKS INTO TWO PIECES WITH ONE CUTTING OFF AND
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE OTHER EJECTING
NORTHEAST AND MERGING WITH A STRONGER CANADIAN TROUGH. THUS, MORE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES.
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, THE STRONG NORTHERN TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO BRING THE STRONGEST
COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH JUST
BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL USHER CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR A
RED FLAG WARNING, BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY,
AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LOWER ON SATURDAY, BUT LOWER RH VALUES MAY ALLOW THE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
BESIDES THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S,
AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S, AND SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE AND WARM AGAIN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED, AND WE REMAIN CUT OFF FROM DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY LOW TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
/NUTTALL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF UPDATE, RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
FOR MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CHANCES OF VCTS/-SHRA
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 91 66 89 67 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 93 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 93 65 91 59 / 30 20 0 0
TXK 92 67 91 64 / 30 10 0 0
ELD 93 64 93 63 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 91 68 89 65 / 40 10 0 0
GGG 91 66 90 64 / 30 10 0 0
LFK 91 65 89 66 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...16
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