145
FXUS64 KSHV 190843
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
343 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD, POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. ONE FINAL MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER AND ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS. VERTICAL ASCENT COMBINED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND ALONG
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS STATE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. DIURNAL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS, BUT
NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS WERE MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDS. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. THEREFORE, A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO END ALL OF THE PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA
BY THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THUS, THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 7 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE QUITE
COOL AS THE ENTIRE AREA DROPS INTO THE 40S.
DURING THE SATURDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THEN EASTWARD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO GRADUALLY RETURN.
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY REBOUND ON SATURDAY BACK INTO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.
CN
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
UPPER-RIDGE TO PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO
THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASING SOUTH TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/05/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1221 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 19/06Z TAF PERIOD, COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF OUR AREA
TERMINALS WITH NW WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THIS FRONT TO UP AROUND
15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAS PRODUCED A SMALL CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT THESE SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY BECOMING SKC LATER ON IN THE
PERIOD AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS BY 20/00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 46 74 53 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 66 46 73 51 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 67 41 75 50 / 20 0 0 0
TXK 66 44 73 53 / 20 0 0 0
ELD 65 44 73 50 / 20 0 0 0
TYR 67 45 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 66 44 75 54 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 69 45 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
165>167.
09/05
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