418
FXUS64 KSHV 131124
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- FOLLOWING A WELCOME REPRIEVE OF SCATTERED RAINS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, A RETURN TO HOT, HUMID, AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM
100-105 DEGREES.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT, WITH
PERIODS OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE LAST OF THE ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN NEAR
GGG IN E TX EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ABLE TO HANG TOUGH LONGER GIVEN THE HIGHER MLCAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG AND PW'S NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG A NORTHWARD MOVING SEABREEZE
BNDRY THAT LIFTED NORTH FROM SE TX/SW LA EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A RESIDUAL
WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT STILL LINGERS FROM THE GULF COAST STATES W
INTO NCNTRL LA/E TX, BROAD FLAT RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDING FROM NRN
OLD MX ACROSS TX AND THE GULF COAST WILL REASSERT ITS DOMINANCE
OVER THE REGION TODAY ONCE THIS SHEAR AXIS WASHES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN THE RETURN TO HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AREAWIDE, AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MIXING OF DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH PEAK HEAT INDICES MAY STILL BE
MARGINAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY NEAR 105 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY
ATTM. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WEAK SEABREEZE THOUGH FROM THE SE
TX/S LA COAST LATER TODAY THAT MAY PENETRATE INLAND INTO PORTIONS
OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS
GOING FOR THESE AREAS AS LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AND INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE INCREASE
IN CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, ONCE WEAK RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BEGIN TO TRAVERSE ESE ALONG THE BASE OF A
DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS GRADUAL TROUGHING
REGIME WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A WEAK ATTENDANT COOL FRONT FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/NRN OK, WHICH WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE
CONVECTION SE THROUGH OK INTO NRN AR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE NRN ZONES OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE NRN
SECTIONS OF SW AR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WHILE THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST SATURDAY EVENING OVER NCNTRL/NE OK INTO NRN
AR, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE BNDRY LYR COOLS
AND STABILIZES, ALTHOUGH HIGH PW'S NEAR 2 INCHES EXTENDING FROM
NE TX INTO ERN OK/WRN AR ALONGSIDE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS MAY MAINTAIN
THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE CONVECTION
APPROACHES THE NRN ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE VARIOUS CAMS
SUGGEST THAT THIS POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NE
TX/SRN AR SUNDAY MORNING, BUT COULD FOCUS A RESIDUAL MESOSCALE
BNDRY(S) OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE ONSET
OF DIURNAL HEATING/INCREASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS FOCUS, AND
THE LIKELY ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND VERY MOIST PW'S IN PLACE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/N
LA/SRN AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, COINCIDING WITH SPC'S DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS.
DID MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NORTH OF I-20, WITH MID/HIGH
CHANCE POPS FARTHER S GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EARLIER
POTENTIAL MCS BNDRY PLACEMENT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION
FOR A WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. ONCE CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SOME LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING SUNDAY ONCE ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT ARRIVES FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH, THE WEAK SFC
FRONT LOOKS TO SHARPEN ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT IS REINFORCED
INTO E TX/N LA, AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY, THUS FOCUSING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
NRN OLD MX ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT. AS OF NOW, QPF'S
OF 1-3+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 4-5+ INCHES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WHERE
LOCALLY ENHANCED BANDING/TRAINING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONTINUED DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND LOW
STREAMFLOWS ON AREA RIVERS AND BAYOUS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE THESE
RAINS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY ONCE DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO ENTRAIN SE WITH THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
WHILE THE RAINS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL REPRIEVE IN COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE AREA TO START THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK,
STRONGER INSOLATION AND A DEEPER SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS WILL YIELD A RETURN TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND THE PROSPECTS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THOUGH REGARDING A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS ALOFT
THAT MAY TRAVERSE NE ALONG THE TX COAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WHICH
COULD ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. BUT PREFER
TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY WITH LATER MODEL RUNS BEFORE HIGHLIGHTING
THIS NEXT POTENTIAL THREAT.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS E TX TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 13/15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AREAWIDE THEREAFTER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED UP TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION, HOWEVER, COULD BE LFK WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS E TX TERMINALS. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 77 92 72 / 0 0 50 90
MLU 95 77 94 73 / 0 0 50 90
DEQ 93 74 84 67 / 10 40 70 80
TXK 97 78 89 69 / 10 10 60 90
ELD 94 76 89 68 / 10 0 50 90
TYR 95 78 94 72 / 0 0 50 90
GGG 95 76 93 72 / 0 0 50 90
LFK 94 76 93 74 / 10 10 50 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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