166
FXUS64 KSHV 241153
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE SEVERE EARLY PUSH THIS MORNING.
- THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR NOW WITH MORE CONVECTION LIFTING
INLAND AND OUR SOON TO BE STATIONARY UPPER LOW ARRIVING SUNDAY.
- THE PARADE OF UPPER IMPULSES CONTINUES FOR MAY WITH A DECENT
COLD FRONT ARRIVING FOR A NICE LITTLE BREAK BY EARLY JUNE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FROM LOWER 80S IN DEEP EAST
TX TO UPPER 60S AND FOG ALONG HWY 167 FROM RUSTON TO EL DORADO.
THE MORNING MCS IS LIFTING OVER NE LA AT THIS TIME AND ALL OF OUR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY. THE SUN IS
SHINNING OVER E TX AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS I-49 SOON WITH HIGHS
FROM UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR EAST TO MUGGY MID 80S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-49. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING
DEVELOPMENT ON A SPOKE OF THE DEPARTING MCS FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO
SHREVEPORT THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, JUST A FEW SPOTTY POP UPS
HERE AND THERE LATE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE HAVING A HARD TIME
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA LATE TODAY.
OUR LOWS WILL REMAIN WITH A WIDE RANGE OF 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND THEN HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR A
PLEASANT SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE MORE CONVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE GFS AND NAM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGH CHANCE TO OCCASIONAL LIKELY COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WPC FADES THEIR MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
EASTWARD AND THEN BACK WEST AGAIN FOR MEMORIAL DAY, BUT THE
SLIGHT RISK IS NOW OVER COASTAL TX/LA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF MS, SO FOR NOW KEEPING OUT OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE SPC
CONTINUES A GENERAL RISK WHICH INDICATES DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY TO NEAR 40 MPH FROM ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR THE BALANCE OF
OUR HOLIDAY. OF COURSE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
SO, KEEP IN MIND WHILE ENJOYING THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND THIS
UNOFFICIAL START TO SUMMER, IF THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
THE SHORT WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE WITH CONVECTION FOR ALL OF OUR
FOUR-STATE AREA AS THE ONE UPPER LOW STALLS ON SUNDAY, AND
LINGERS TOWARD MIDWEEK. JUST AS THE KICKER ARRIVES IN THE SW FLOW
TO EXPAND COVERAGE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. SO MORE NEEDED RAINFALL
REMAINS IN THE OFFING WITH THE ABOVE AVERAGE WET PATTERN LIKELY
TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A BACK DOOR
FRONT ARRIVING DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME NEXT
WEEKEND. AND THAT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WET PATTERN BRIEFLY
AS WE TURN THE PAGE OF THE CALENDAR. AND PERHAPS GET OUT OF MAY
WITH LITTLE IF ANY 90 DEGREES READINGS AS THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RANGE. THE CPC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK CARRIES THIS SAME PATTERN OVER BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
/24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FOR THE 24/12Z TAF UPDATE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL UNTIL 24/18Z AS
THE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BREAK UP. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SOME VCTS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS BY
24/18Z-25/03Z. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, REDEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS IS MORE LIKELY FOR EASTERNMOST TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 68 83 67 / 20 20 40 40
MLU 82 67 83 67 / 30 30 50 50
DEQ 84 63 83 63 / 10 0 30 40
TXK 85 66 84 66 / 20 20 40 50
ELD 82 64 81 64 / 30 20 50 50
TYR 85 67 85 67 / 10 0 20 20
GGG 84 67 84 67 / 20 10 30 20
LFK 84 68 86 68 / 20 20 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page