023
FXUS64 KSHV 131154
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. FLOODING MAY BECOME A
CONCERN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF EAST
TEXAS.
- A RETURN TO QUIETER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX, AS REMNANT RAINFALL SLOWLY TREKS EASTWARD ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH LIMITED STEERING,
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR SUCH OVERNIGHT RAIN TO STALL, LEADING
TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE 00Z 3 KM NAM AND 02Z HRRR
ARE HINTING AT A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ON THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA STATE LINE LATE OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, SWINGING SOUTH ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS COUNTIES
INTO THE MORNING. BEYOND THAT, SOLUTIONS DIVERGE, WITH THE NAM
BEING QUIETER AND THE HRRR MORE ACTIVE.
TODAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON WHAT THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH DOES. THOSE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET MOVING AGAIN, EVENTUALLY
POSITIONING ITSELF IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE I-30 TO I-20
CORRIDORS, CONTAINING THE MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THUS, FURTHER IMPULSES OF MOISTURE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL KEEP LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE US-84 CORRIDOR, CROSSING TOLEDO BEND INTO WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.
BY TUESDAY, THE OCCASIONALLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
PRETENDING TO BE A COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE VERY MUCH PRESENT OVER
THE ARKLATEX, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING IT MAY INCH JUST
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO OPEN THE DOOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WITH DEFINED WAVES SWEEPING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH IF SURFACE STEERING IS PRONOUNCED ENOUGH. THROUGH TUESDAY,
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, AND THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION DOES
NOT MERIT A FLOOD WATCH AS OF THIS WRITING, BUT ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT.
AMONG THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE UNUSUAL BEHAVIOR OF
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECENT SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN BASED ON THE POSITIVELY TILED TROUGH OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY AS OUR PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM. THE LATEST GFS ILLUSTRATES THIS FIRST TROUGH
CLOSING AROUND ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND RETROGRADING WEST BY
MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY FORMING A NEW INVERTED TROUGH OVER TEXAS,
SUSTAINING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT, THE LOW SHOULD RETROGRADE FURTHER WEST,
MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
FOR THE 13/12Z TAF PERIOD, A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO
BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, AND DO EXPECT A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS TODAY AS LOW STRATUS MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REGENERATE AND EXPAND ONCE AGAIN AS HEATING INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND A FRONTAL BNDRY CONTINUES TO BISECT OUR
AIRSPACE. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS AT ALL SITES DURING
MUCH OF TODAY AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO PREVAIL TSRA AT SOME POINT
IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR/VFR TOWARD MIDDAY,
ALBEIT LOW VFR IN MOST CASES WITH INCREASING CONVECTION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH THE BNDRY LINGERING AS SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS WITH HIGHER GUSTS INVOF OF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY FOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN DEEP EAST TEXAS. EVEN IF
ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 72 87 72 / 70 20 50 20
MLU 89 73 90 72 / 50 20 50 30
DEQ 89 70 90 70 / 30 10 20 20
TXK 90 72 91 72 / 40 10 30 20
ELD 89 70 89 70 / 30 20 40 40
TYR 86 72 88 71 / 80 30 50 20
GGG 85 71 87 70 / 80 30 50 20
LFK 84 70 84 70 / 80 60 70 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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