765
FXUS64 KSHV 250605
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- FOLLOWING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAT MONDAY, THE RETURN TO
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF TO SOME THIS MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
AFTERNOON.
- THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
FOR LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS FARTHER WEST, AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WATCHING A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT S ACROSS EXTREME SE OK AND INTO SW AR ATTM, ALONG A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION THAT IS DROPPING S AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM/W TX. WHILE THE CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO DEPICT THIS CONVECTION, SOME OF THE VARIOUS SHORT
TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST ELEVATED FORCING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS, INDICATIVE OF MLCAPES OF 1000-1500+ J/KG, AND PW'S OF
1.7-2.0+ INCHES. DID BUMP UP POPS OVERNIGHT AND EXPANDED THEM
FARTHER SSE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE
OVERNIGHT. THE PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP QPF AMOUNTS MINIMAL, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING/SHIFTING S AROUND MIDDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING
MID LEVEL CIGS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH FROM N TO S LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO A RETURN OF THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
AS TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF E TX/SE OK.
THIS MAY BLEED INTO DEEP E TX/SW AR/WRN LA AS WELL GIVEN THE VERY
WARM/BONE DRY GROUNDS, WITH SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE
CONTRIBUTING TO TEMPS POSSIBLY OVERPERFORMING AGAIN DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH SOME MIXING OF DEWPOINTS IS
EXPECTED, THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY RANGING FROM 105-108 DEGREES OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
ALL OF E TX, MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK, PORTIONS OF ADJACENT SW AR, AND
NW LA THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.
THE RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND FARTHER ESE BACK INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THUS, AN
EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH IF NOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH A MORE
PRONOUNCED NW FLOW REGIME IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKNESS ALOFT BEGINS TO SHIFT SE INTO THE REGION.
THE PROGS ARE STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THIS FEATURE, ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS FEASIBLE THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS TAP INTO STILL AMPLE
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST
PRONOUNCED OVER SRN AR AND N LA, BEFORE THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES
FROM N TO S DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME, WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS RETURN
BY THIS TIME, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER RETROGRADING FARTHER W
INTO THE DESERT SW. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE THE LAST OF THE
RAINS FOR NOW AS WE BEGIN TO ENTER ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DRY CONDITIONS.
THIS IS DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL EXPAND BACK E ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO AMPLIFY THE HEAT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
OUR REGION. PENDING THE RAINS THAT MAY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IN SIGHT IN THE FORM OF WETTING RAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
FOR THE 25/06Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING
ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES BUT THAT COULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON TUESDAY AS CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS SE
OK AND SW AR WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. HAVE WENT WITH
VCTS AND TEMPO WORDING AT THE TXK, ELD AND MLU TERMINALS ONLY CLOSER
TO AT TXK AND ELD AND POST SUNRISE AT MLU TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
CONVECTION AS THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS HIGH RES
PROGS OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THESE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE WE
WILL CONTINUE DEALING WITH THESE HIGH AC CEILINGS BUT THERE SHOULD
BE SOME BREAKS IN THESE ELEVATED CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 99 77 101 78 / 20 0 20 30
MLU 95 75 98 76 / 30 10 20 50
DEQ 101 73 98 71 / 10 10 20 30
TXK 99 76 99 75 / 20 10 20 30
ELD 97 74 99 73 / 20 10 20 50
TYR 102 79 103 77 / 20 0 20 20
GGG 102 78 103 77 / 20 0 20 20
LFK 99 76 102 77 / 10 0 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ001-002-010-011.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
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