552
FXUS64 KSHV 272308
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB BETWEEN 105 TO 109. PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY, SUCH AS HYDRATING WELL, LIMITING OUTDOOR TIME, AND
HAVING QUICK ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING.
- HOT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
DAILY HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
- A LATE WEEK PATTERN CHANGE MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FOUR STATE
REGION IN A LARGE POCKET OF DRY AIR UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT CONTINUES TO HELP KEEP POPS OUT OF OUR NEAR-TERM FORECAST. DUE
TO THE CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE,
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AREAWIDE THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB BETWEEN 105 TO 109 AREAWIDE, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE, PRACTICE GOOD HEAT RELATED SAFETY,
SUCH AS HYDRATING WELL, LIMITING OUTDOOR TIME, AND HAVING QUICK
ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING.
WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
EXTREME HEAT IMPACTS, THE CURRENT OPPRESSIVE HEAT PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SLOWLY CREEPS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS US. THE EXISTING HEAT
ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, WITH THE LOWS IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S. A
WEAK COOL FRONT MAY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY (LOW-TO-MID 90S), BUT
EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT ZONES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, MOST MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS OPPRESSIVE PATTERN WE'VE HAD FOR THE LAST
WEEK AND A HALF WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
RETROGRADES BACK WEST. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE REMAINS UNCLEAR, HOWEVER MOST MODELS SHOW INCREASING
CHANCES OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EAST OF I-49
SINCE THOSE AREAS WILL NO LONGER BE UNDER THE WRATH OF THE
SUBSIDENCE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A MERIDIONAL FLOW OVERHEAD AS THE REGION IS POSITIONED
SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN
AMPLIFYING BERMUDA HIGH. THIS AND A POSSIBLE SUMMERTIME COOL
FROPA WILL HELP TO COOL US DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE (LOW-TO-MID
90S) AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREAWIDE.
PENDLETON/OZIMEK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AT 29/00Z. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
MLU MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
DEQ MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
TXK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
ELD MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
TYR MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
GGG MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
LFK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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