747
FXUS64 KSHV 310527 CCA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1227 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
BY MIDWEEK AND AGAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING THESE PERIODS.
- COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL TYPE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND A BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER VALUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE BENEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL ADVECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 80S.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID-LATITUDE CYCLOGENESIS TO INCREASE WITH A SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND TOGETHER RACE
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGES NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LOW, WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SPARK CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THE FORCING TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER,
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, WILL MAINTAIN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
A VERY SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DRIVES A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FROM SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED AS THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
REGION. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO DRIVE ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR FOR NOW WITH MORE STRATUS DECKS
OF IFR/MVFR 08-16Z WITH VARIATIONS ON THE SCATTERING 17-19Z WITH
VFR CIGS TO SCT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK WITH S/SW 5-10KT
EARLY, THEN INCREASING TO 10-15G20-25KT ALL AFTN. SIMILAR PATTERN
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE AT CONVECTION IMPACTS LATE WEEK,
EARLY THURS & AGAIN P.M.SAT / A.M.SUN WITH OUR NEXT FROPA. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 66 86 68 / 0 0 10 20
MLU 87 65 88 68 / 20 0 10 0
DEQ 84 60 83 62 / 0 0 10 40
TXK 87 65 87 68 / 0 0 10 30
ELD 86 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
TYR 85 66 87 67 / 0 0 10 30
GGG 86 65 86 67 / 0 0 10 20
LFK 85 66 85 67 / 10 0 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...24
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