479
FXUS64 KSHV 211912
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SPAWNED A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH SOME NEW
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT OVERALL
WE SHOULD SEE IT DIMINISH AS WE MOVE TOWARDS SUNSET. MAIN THREATS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS, SOMETHING WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN SMITH
COUNTY THIS MORNING. AS THE POET HENRY WADSWORTH LONGFELLOW WROTE,
"INTO EACH LIFE SOME RAIN MUST FALL". IF IT FELL ON YOURS TODAY,
COUNT YOUR LUCKY STARS, BECAUSE THE WELL IS GOING TO RUN BONE-DRY
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM SOME LOW, AND I MEAN LOW,
CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY, THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK IS GOING TO BE DRY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE CONTROL OF
THE REGION, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID, THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE DO NOT
APPEAR TO USHER IN THE WARMEST OF TEMPERATURES, WITH TRENDS
ACTUALLY COMING IN SLIGHTLY "COOLER" FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
GRANTED, WE WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH A FEW PEOPLE IN
THE UPPER 80S. I THINK THIS WILL BE MORE WIDELY FELT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S. THAT BEING
SAID, THIS HINT OF HEAT RELIEF APPEARS TO BE A SHORT ONE, AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION. /33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, A WEAK COOL FRONT IS DRAPING ACROSS NE
TX INTO S AR WITH A CONVECTIVE GUST FRONT THAT JUST PASSED KGGG WITH
33KT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THESE GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOME CONVECTION CLUSTERED NEAR KGGG AT THIS TIME. THIS CLUSTER
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ALL MORNING, MOVING SE AROUND 15-20KT. HEATING
WILL POTENTIALLY TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION, SO VCTS IS BEING TEMPOED
WHEN NECESSARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL ONLY TOUCH AND GO LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD TOMORROW WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION THE OFFING. LOOK FOR
SOME CALM TO LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WITH DAYBREAK LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 97 74 94 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 71 97 72 94 / 20 10 0 0
DEQ 68 94 67 91 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 71 95 71 92 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 69 95 68 92 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 71 97 73 95 / 20 10 10 0
GGG 70 98 71 96 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 72 96 74 94 / 20 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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