471
FXUS64 KSHV 111815
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
115 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
- DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE
MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPACT OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND INCREASE OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
I WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT PUTTING OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS
WE WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE AT BEST. AFTER MUCH CONSIDERATION AND
DELIBERATION WITH NEIGHBORS, I ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
FOR TODAY AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN REASON
FOR ISSUING TODAY WAS BECAUSE OF OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHED
YESTERDAY, WE HAD A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS THAT WERE ABLE TO GET
ABOVE THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD, AND I THINK WE WILL BE ABLE TO
REACH THIS IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL TODAY. I DON'T THINK WE WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM REACHING OUR THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH IS WHY I DECIDED TO TAKE IT OUT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE ARE ANY AREAS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK THAT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING.
WE ARE SEEING A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO POP UP ON
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW AREAS
IN LOUISIANA WITH SOME GROWING CU. AS A RESULT, I WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME 20 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
IN TEXAS AND THEN THE MAJORITY OF OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL THAT
WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AT TIMES, BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER, THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO INCREASE. SOMETHING THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
/33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AS EXPECTED, DIURNALLY INDUCED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NE
TX, SW AR AND ALL OF N LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS. FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, CHOSE NOT TO MENTION ANY WX WITH
THESE TAFS AS STORM COVERAGE IS BEST HANDLED WITH AN AMD IF
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CU FIELD SHOULD FAIR OFF NEAR OR
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS, POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LFK/TYR/GGG
TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT THESE SAME CONDITIONS JUST AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE SHV/TXK TERMINALS AS WELL. EVENTUALLY, ANY MORNING
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
ON WEDNESDAY OR TOWARDS THE END OF THIS 24HR TAF PACKAGE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 75 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 78 98 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 77 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...13
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