821
FXUS64 KSHV 140555
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR CURRENT PATTERN ASIDE FROM A SLOW WARMING
TREND, AND REALLY FOR LOWS MORE THAN HIGHS KEEPING MID 80S.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL START TO SEE MORE CLOUDINESS AND STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL WITH A WEAK FRONT NEARBY.
- BY MIDWEEK, WE WILL START TO SEE SOME WHOLE PATTERN CHANGES AS
OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN GIVES WAY TO SOME POTENTIAL HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BRINGS FOCUS TO SW FLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
THE LATE SUMMER PATTERN WE ENDURED WITH EXPANDING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IS SLOWLY WORKING BACK INTO OUR MID FALL "RAINY" MONTH
WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THE CURRENT PATTERN IS LOCKED
IN AROUND THE MAJOR OCEAN COASTAL PLAYERS ALOFT AND ON THE
SURFACE. THIS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N GULF WILL SOON BE
REINFORCED IN THE BACK DOOR OVER THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SE
U.S., ESSENTIALLY KEEPING US IN THIS WARM AND DRY S/SW FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BRING IN MORE LOW TO
MID 80S IN FOR HIGHS AND LOWS EDGING INTO THE 60S, WIDESPREAD FOR
US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE MAY SEE A COUPLE OF WARM RECORD LOWS BY
THEN, BUT OUR HIGHS HAVE BEEN HOTTER RECORD WISE WITH MOSTLY MID
TO UPPER 80S THROUGH MID MONTH.
THE MODELS ARE STILL LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS AIR MASS AT 1029MB KEEPS OVER THE GREAT LAKE
STATES AND IT'S COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN TO ALONG I-20, BUT THE
COLD AIR KEEPING MORE IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS AIR MASS WILL
FOLLOW THE TREND AND END UP FURTHER REINFORCING THE SEMI-
PERMANENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO START NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO FOLLOW WILL BE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SETTING UP ON THE WEST COAST NOW, THAT WILL CROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN TWO PARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SECONDARY CORE LOW IN THE NW PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
DEEPENING PATTERN AND WE WILL SEE OUR SW FLOW ALOFT START TO
BRING IN ALL THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TO OUR AREA BY MID AND LATE WEEK.
BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL ARRIVE WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE ON THE STATIONARY
FRONT. THEN THEN THROUGH THURSDAY THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
AND MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR SOME BUMPY STORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY AND MIDDAY THURSDAY. TIMING AT PRESENT IS AN ALLY FOR
LESS HEATING AND PERHAPS LESS BUMPY STORMS. THEN THE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHIFTING THE HEAVY AXIS TO OUR EAST
BY SUNSET. THE REMAINDER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM W
TO E DURING FRIDAY. FOR THIS TIME WITH ALL THE ADDED CLOUDS OUR
HIGHS WILL TREND COOLER BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWS, RAIN COOLED
LOWER 60S AND EVENTUALLY 50S AGAIN BY FRIDAY. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SEEING SOME 45HDFT TO 6KFT CLOUD COVER ACRSOS PORTIONS OF SE OK
AND SW AR LATE THIS EVENING AND THIS MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE
DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MORE OF OUR AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO SEEING SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHICH IS A
LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE
WAS TO INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS TO THE LFK/TYR
AND GGG TERMINALS CLOSER TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING. ANY
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY AND/OR CEILINGS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF, IF THEY
OCCUR AT ALL WITH THE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A REBIRTH OF THE
CU FIELD ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT AGAIN, IF WE SEE
ANY CEILINGS, THEY SHOULD BE 35HDFT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY S TO SE WINDS OVERNIGHT NEAR OR
UNDER 10KTS WITH SE TO SW WINDS ON FRIDAY BEYOND 15Z SUSTAINED
NEAR 6-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT THE TYR AND GGG
TERMINALS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 79 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 79 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 82 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 78 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 80 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 57 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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