902
FXUS64 KSHV 061925
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE MENTION OF TORNADO WATCH 186
UNTIL 11 PM. THE WATCH COVERS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND DEEP
EAST TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. /05/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NACOGDOCHES TO
SHREVEPORT AND NORTHEAST TO EL DORADO WILL SERVE AS THE TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION ALREADY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
I-30 CORRIDOR. QUITE A SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR 80 SOUTH ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
NORTH LOUISIANA.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SWING EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALLOWING FOR A STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE ARKLATEX. 70
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASED DAYTIME
HEATING, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IGNITE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME STORMS WITH A SECONDARY TORNADO
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH
AS STORMS PUSH EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS THURSDAY.
UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME NEARLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE. THE COMBINATION OF CEILINGS AND PREVAILING
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS
MAINLY DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS JUST NORTH OF THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK
AS THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, IFR/MVFR POST FRONTAL CIGS FOR MOST
SITES WITH KMLU COMING DOWN NOW WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE N.
KLFK HAS S/SW5-10KT WITH A TEMPO FOR FROPA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS HEATING HAS SLOWED PROGRESS. WE STILL HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL
FRONT AT 850MB/5KFT SCOURING MOISTURE WITH -SHRA/VCTS IN AT
SEVERAL SITES - 03-07Z. CIGS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT AND
MAY LOOSE GROUND DESCENDING BACK TO IFR, BUT BY DAYBREAK MVFR/VFR
WILL UNFOLD WITH INTERMITTENT AFTN SUN AND N/NE WINDS 5-15KT. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 74 58 78 / 50 0 10 20
MLU 58 75 57 78 / 80 0 0 20
DEQ 49 74 48 79 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 54 74 54 80 / 20 0 0 10
ELD 51 74 52 78 / 60 0 0 10
TYR 57 73 58 78 / 20 0 10 30
GGG 57 73 57 78 / 30 0 10 40
LFK 62 74 62 77 / 40 10 30 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...24
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