609
FXUS64 KSHV 010010
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX HAVE A MEDIUM
CHANCE (45 TO 75 PERCENT) OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES
F DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS
HAVE HIGH CHANCES (GREATER THAN 75 PERCENT).
- SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY
LOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK VORT MAX TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST AND MOVES
SOUTH.
PERHAPS THE BIGGER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 90S ON MONDAY, AND MOST AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW OK TO JENA LA SHOULD DO SO AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTURY MARK OVER A
COUPLE OF PLACES IN EAST TEXAS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES AND AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL BRING DRIER
AIR AND SOME COOL TEMPERATURES. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOWER 80S IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES F IN
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES OF EAST TEXAS. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD RETURN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN A
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BRING
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
RANGE, MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY BROAD-BRUSHED WITH RAIN CHANCES,
PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING WHEN INSTABILITY IS
HIGHEST, WHICH ISN'T UNUSUAL IN A SUMMERTIME ENVIRONMENT AND THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN WITH NO REAL SURFACE FRONTS TO FOCUS AND ORGANIZE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
NUTTALL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT S/SW THROUGH
THE MORNING. KLFK TEMPOED FOR BRIEF LIFR/IFR. THE AFTN WILL SEE
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS AHEAD OF A FROPA. WE MAY SEE W/NW BRIEFLY,
BUT ALL SITES SLACK AND VEER LATE. NE WINDS WILL ARRIVE PREDAWN
ON TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING
AND SOME LATE DAY VCTS POSSIBLE, PERHAPS LINGERING, OVERNIGHT
WITH A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NE SFC WIND FOR TUES. IT
WILL BE WED BEFORE THE DRIER AIR LIMITS CONVECTION AGAIN FOR US.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 96 75 94 / 0 0 10 20
MLU 75 95 74 91 / 20 10 20 20
DEQ 73 95 72 92 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 75 97 74 94 / 0 0 10 10
ELD 73 94 72 89 / 10 0 20 10
TYR 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 76 95 75 96 / 0 0 10 30
LFK 75 95 75 96 / 0 0 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...24
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