417
FXUS64 KSHV 201148
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
648 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SOME TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES IN WAKE OF EARLY CONVECTION
ALONG A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS LINGERING RAIN SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, AS A STABLE AND WORK-OVER
ATMOSPHERE SETTLES IN PLACE. THERE IS A DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH COULD MAKE IT INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, DECIDED TO KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THOSE ZONES TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. WE COULD ALSO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF I-30 ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SW ARKANSAS. DUE TO
THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S, WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH WET SOILS AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. FOR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A MUCH QUIETER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BUT, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE REGION, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH PEAK
HEATING. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NBM'S COVERAGE AND LOWER
THE CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY, BRINGING A POTENT DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE FLOW AND
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ON THE LOWER
END THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THREAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALSO, WITH THE POTENTIAL CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF RAINFALL, AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR AND VLIFR TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD
AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VSBY ISSUES RIGHT HEAR NEAR SUNRISE AS
WELL BUT AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON,
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MOST ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TODAY BUT CHANCES DO NOT WARRANT A
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, WE
SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BUT REINTRODUCED A RETURN TO
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOOK FOR NNE
TO ENE WINDS TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 70 81 68 / 20 30 80 90
MLU 84 69 84 68 / 30 30 60 90
DEQ 83 64 75 63 / 20 30 70 90
TXK 85 67 79 67 / 10 30 70 90
ELD 83 65 79 65 / 30 30 60 90
TYR 84 69 78 67 / 10 40 90 80
GGG 85 69 79 68 / 10 30 90 80
LFK 85 71 81 69 / 30 30 80 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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