291
FXUS64 KSHV 241950 RRA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE MAINTAINED ELEVATED VULNERABILITIES FOR
FLOODING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30, WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ARK-
LA-TEX, REINTRODUCING A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT RETURNS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER WEST TEXAS HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY DRIVER TO
STEER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS
ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. AFTERWARD, THIS PATTERN FINALLY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH THE LINGERING
STATIONARY FRONT LIFTING AWAY AS A WARM FRONT AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL. MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LEFT TO FALL
THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH ARKANSAS. RIDGING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN EARNEST OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY WITH THE
COINCIDENT SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MAINTAINING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
THIS NEW SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL MAXIMIZE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S ON SATURDAY, THEN MID-
TO-UPPER 90S ON MONDAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY GIVES A 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES BY
NEXT TUESDAY. WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID
70S BY THIS TIME, HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL BE IMPACTFUL FOR ALL GROUPS
OF PEOPLE AND NOT JUST HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS, LIKELY PROMPTING
HEAT ADVISORIES BY THAT TIME. ADEQUATE PRECAUTIONS AND AWARENESS
ARE ENCOURAGED NOW AGAINST THE ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ILLNESSES. THIS INCLUDES (AND IS NOT LIMITED TO) ALTERING OUTDOOR
PLANS, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE, CHECKING THE
BACKSEAT OF YOUR VEHICLE, AND KNOWING THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF
HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
CEILINGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO LIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN PERSISTENT BANDING OF HEAVY RAIN.
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME BACK TO
SCT-BKN VFR AROUND 3-4KFT, WITH KTXK, KELD, AND KMLU EXPECTED TO
TAKE THE LONGEST TO RECOVER. BKN VFR CEILINGS TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, EVENTUALLY SCATTERING THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS COULD PREVAIL AT KLFK THURSDAY
MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. DO NOT SEE A SIGNAL CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER AMDS OR THE INCLUSION OF
VCTS/TSRA IN FUTURE UPDATES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING THROUGH A PORTION
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FOUR STATE REGION. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 93 75 93 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 73 93 74 93 / 30 10 0 0
DEQ 72 90 73 90 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 74 93 74 93 / 20 10 0 0
ELD 71 92 73 92 / 30 20 0 0
TYR 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 75 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 73 94 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
019-021.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
126-138.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...23
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