833
FXUS64 KSHV 270622
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
122 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FELL LATE YESTERDAY AS OUR WEAK COOL
FRONT BEGAN TO POOL ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER OUR EAST.
- THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VARY BEHIND THE RAIN, BUT SHIFT TO E/NE
PREDAWN FOR I-30 AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING SOUTHWARD. MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND S OF I-20 TODAY.
- THE AIR WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS AS HIGH
PRESSURE IMPOSES ON THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL LINGER FOR DAYS WITH NO HEAT HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A NICE BREAK FROM THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE AS A NICE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 1021MB
SETTLES INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST STATES BY
THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK BACK THE HUMIDITY AS DEW
POINTS EASE BACK TO AVERAGE EXPECTATIONS WITH NE WINDS FOR A GOOD
WHILE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THIS BACK DOOR COOL FRONT.
WE SHOULD SEE SE FLOW RETURN DURING THE COMING WEEKEND SO NOT
ONLY IS THE RH GOING TO EASE A BIT, BUT THE MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
GET BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST WITH MORE MID 90S FOR
AN AVERAGE. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN OUR EASTERN
TEXAS COUNTIES WITH MORE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX CALCULATIONS WILL
BEHAVE FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL PEAKING
AROUND 105 FOR MAXIMUMS. AND WE MAY PEAK JUST BEYOND THAT 106
BRIEFLY IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG OUR CWA FRINGE FROM TYLER TO LUFKIN
AND THE HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST, BUT NOT ALL
SENSORS ARE CREATED EQUAL AND ANY EXCESS SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
SO LOOKING BETTER FOR US, BUT IF YOU REALLY WANT TO ESCAPE THE
HEAT GO NORTH OR EAST THIS WEEKEND. OUR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH
IMPROVED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA I AM SURE MANY WILL AGREE. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER AZ/NM, AS EXPECTED
THANKS TO OUR WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NE WINDS WILL
KEEP THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. NEXT WEEK WILL SEE IT
PUSH ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND EDGE INTO KY/TN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS A BETTER SCENARIO THAN BUILDING UP A HEFTY CORE. THE
REASON IS THE LOWER HEIGHTS AROUND THE WEAKNESS ALONG THE GULF
COAST, IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THERE ARE SOME BRIEF OPPORTUNITIES FOR A SEA BREEZE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-20 NEXT WEEK IN THE LATE DAY, BUT OVERALL THE HEAT AND
DROUGHT HAVE AN EASY TIME THIS YEAR WITH THE STILL HIGH SUN ANGLE.
THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BEHAVE FOR US BEYOND THE WEEKEND, BUT
LIKELY RETURN FOR US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOR THE 27/06Z TAF PERIOD...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE ATTM BUT SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF OUR
REGION IN THE 08-10Z TIMEFRAME. BEHIND THE CONVECTION, MODELS ARE
INSISTENT THAT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AND CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AS WELL. FOR NOW, WILL SETTLE ON
MVFR CLOUD HEIGHTS NEAR 15HDFT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR NE TX TERMINALS
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY WHEN WE SHOULD SEE THESE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. LOOK FOR MOSTLY
VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 74 96 74 / 20 10 10 0
MLU 94 72 96 70 / 30 10 10 0
DEQ 95 68 95 66 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 95 72 96 71 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 95 70 96 69 / 20 10 10 0
TYR 98 74 98 73 / 20 10 10 0
GGG 97 73 98 71 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 97 73 96 73 / 40 20 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
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