398
FXUS64 KSHV 261214
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
714 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION LATER ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
- A MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
MULTIPLE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS
EVENING ACROSS SW ARKANSAS HAVE BEGUN TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR
COMPLEX WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING FROM VERY
LARGE HAIL TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. FARTHER TO THE
W/NW, A FEW ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD OUR REGION BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THEY
WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ARRIVING IN
EAST TX. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. BOTH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE DISCRETE
STORMS ALONG WITH ANY STORM CLUSTERS OR LINEAR SEGMENTS LIKE THE
ONE ACROSS SW ARKANSAS AS OF THIS WRITING. ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY,
STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING ENTIRELY
LATER THIS MORNING.
AS MOVE LATER INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, EXPECT A MORE BENIGN PERIOD
OF WEATHER TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE NEXT WORK WEEK ON
MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
AND POSSIBLY NEAR 90 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
EARLY IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY AS
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.
BY LATE TUESDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN, WHILE A VERY EXPANSIVE RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE SW
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN GIVEN THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE COLD FRONTAL
INTERACTION. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THIS NEXT COLD FRONT MAY
ALSO STRUGGLE TO CLEAR THE REGION INITIALLY AND STALL OUT, KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY, THE NEXT MAJOR
TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SHOULD FINALLY HELP TO USHER THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST. IN ITS
WAKE, EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO SETTLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF MAY.
FINALLY, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT MORE FREQUENT AND APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD FINALLY HELP TO MITIGATE SOME
OF OUR PROLONGED DROUGHT CONCERNS AS WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS
APPEAR VERY PLAUSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
FOR 26/12Z TAF PERIOD...A MIX BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW CIGS ARE MOVING INTO THE AIRSPACE. EXPECT REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BEFORE CLOUDS START
TO LIFT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP, WHICH COULD ALSO AFFECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES TODAY,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE REDUCED
CATEGORIES, AS LOW CIGS RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED AFTER THUNDERSTORMS EXIT
THE REGION LATER ON THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BENIGN WEATHER BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS RETURN LATE TUESDAY.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 71 90 71 / 30 10 20 20
MLU 88 69 92 71 / 40 20 20 30
DEQ 83 66 86 65 / 40 20 30 30
TXK 86 71 88 70 / 30 20 30 40
ELD 85 67 88 66 / 40 20 30 40
TYR 87 72 89 71 / 20 10 30 20
GGG 87 71 90 70 / 20 10 30 20
LFK 89 71 90 72 / 20 0 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20
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