519
FXUS64 KSHV 110600
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S
- SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME BLOWOFF CIRRUS FROM SYSTEMS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES,
AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS
WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY, UPPER-RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THE RETURN OF
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION, INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY. MID-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS RISE IN
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, COULD YIELD ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO IGNITE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION, MAINLY FOR OUR
EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION, I DO WONDER HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
GENERATE WITH A 590+ MB UPPER-RIDGE FIRMLY OVER THE REGION. SO, I
DECIDED TO DEVIATE A TAD FROM THE NBM AND LOWER OUR HIGHEST POPS
TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN, AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A
CLOSE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION INTO
THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF OUR I-30
CORRIDOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
AS A RESULT, AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER, WHILE DISTURBANCES WOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN, SOME
QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THIS OUTLOOK, AS THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL GREATLY DETERMINE IF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IT'S NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE RAIN CHANCES COULD STAY JUST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. AT THIS TIME, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY, THE NBM AND SEVERAL LONG-TERM
PROGS CONTINUE TO EJECT THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
WITH FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES MOVING IN BEHIND IT. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FOR THE 11/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE
AIRSPACE, SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. CU FIELDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SUPPRESSED WHILE REMNANT PACIFIC TROPICAL CLOUD COVER DRIFTS IN AS
SCT250/FEW250 AFTER 11/12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 62 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 60 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 64 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 61 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 65 91 73 93 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 63 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 64 90 72 92 / 0 0 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16
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