595
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
- ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AND WARM AFTERNOON ARE IN STORE, WITH
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY, WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS USHERING IN THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSETTLED, WITH DAILY RAINFALL
CHANCES AND MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATED, A QUIET, MILD AND
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNRISE. THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE YET ANOTHER WARM LATE SUMMER
DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND SOME SITES
TAKING AIM AT THE UPPER 90S AGAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING
TO RESOLVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION, THUS
ELECTED TO BUMP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS UP AREAWIDE TO
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO SEE THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT SPECIFICS ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY REMAIN HAZY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE
STORMS AS SOON AS MIDNIGHT, WITH OTHERS DELAYING ARRIVAL UNTIL
DAYBREAK OR INTO THE MORNING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE OZARKS INTO FRIDAY, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SWING INTO THE ARKLATEX FROM THE NORTHWEST, CLEARING THE
REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
MODERATE HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTH.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD
EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS, HINDERING NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES AND
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TO MAINTAIN THEIR
HOLD ON THE REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOK
TO KICK UP SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH AND WEST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED, DAILY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS DROPPING FROM THE 90S TO 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VSBYS AT THE ELD/MLU AND LFK TERMINALS NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. LOOK FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS. FEEL LIKE THAT THREAT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AT
THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS SO LEFT VCTS OUT BUT ACROSS ALL OTHER
TERMINALS, BEGAN VCTS AT 19-20Z AND KEPT IT THROUGH 02-03Z
THURSDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TXK
TERMINAL TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 73 93 71 / 20 20 30 0
MLU 95 69 94 69 / 20 20 20 0
DEQ 92 66 88 65 / 20 30 40 10
TXK 96 69 92 69 / 20 20 40 10
ELD 94 68 91 65 / 20 20 40 0
TYR 92 70 90 68 / 20 20 40 0
GGG 94 69 91 68 / 20 20 30 0
LFK 95 70 93 68 / 20 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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