994
FXUS64 KSHV 221919
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
219 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND GROWING RAINFALL DEFICIT
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH.
- LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE JUST BEYOND THE NEXT 7 DAYS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CLOSER TO HALLOWEEN INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL
COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO YIELD PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH DAILY AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE
SLIGHTLY BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MEANWHILE, DRY
AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
DRY AIR ALSO COMES WITH A PRICE AMIDST OUR VERY PROLONGED DROUGHT
WITH A CONTINUED FIRE DANGER AS MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.
DESPITE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PATTERN
SHIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON JUST BEYOND THIS 7-DAY
PERIOD. INITIALLY, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING WELL OUT TO OUR WEST
THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN EJECTING INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DUE TO THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND INTO THE SE CONUS, THE TROUGH WILL BE DEFLECTED FARTHER NORTH
WELL AWAY FROM US SO DON'T EXPECT ANY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
HOWEVER, THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO SLOWLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND ERODE
IT COMPLETELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN, NOTABLE WEATHER CHANGES APPEAR LIKELY IN TERMS
OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH WITH A MORE
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. TIMING OF THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVING
APPEARS TO CLOSELY COINCIDE WITH HALLOWEEN INTO EARLY NOVEMBER SO
WELCOME RAINFALL MAY FINALLY BE ON THE WAY, ALBEIT AT THE EXPENSE
OF HALLOWEEN TRICK-OR-TREATERS.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
FOR THE 22/18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PUNCTUATED ONLY BY A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ASSUMING A SOUTHEASTERLY COURSE
TOMORROW AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 4 TO 8 MPH.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT
OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 48 85 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 49 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 51 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 85 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 55 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 50 85 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 50 86 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...26
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