006
FXUS64 KSHV 240500
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ALONG WITH THIS DRIER AIRMASS, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS AT LEAST OUR SOUTHWEST HALF ON
THURSDAY. THEREFORE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN MADE FOR
EXTREME WESTERN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING ONCE AGAIN BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR PRETTY GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A REINFORCING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BACKDOORED ITS WAY SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH OUR REGION LATE THIS EVENING BUT SOME HIGHER PWATS
WERE POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE, INDICATIVE OF VERY LOW PWATS
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES. THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE BLEEDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP SOMEWHAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE 90S WEST AND SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE ESPECIALLY TIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY, THIS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
THEREFORE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN MADE FOR THIS REGION
FOR THURSDAY. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL HAVE REALLY BOTTOMED OUT
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THU NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL WELL INTO THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
QUITE AS PRONOUNCED IN THESE MOST RECENT PROGS, AT LEAST NOT UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING DOMINATING THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING
OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS IS A LITTLE LATER THAN EARLIER
PROGS SUGGEST WHICH WILL PUT A SLIGHT DELAY ON THE HIGHER POPS
WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR NEXT WEEK. UPPER FORCING APPEARS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE HAD ENOUGH TIME TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH SUCH
THAT LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION FOR THE
TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK. IT'S BEEN QUITE SOMETIME SINCE
OUR REGION HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND
WILL BE MUCH APPRECIATED...ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
TROUGH APPEARS TO BRING WITH IT AS WELL.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
FOR THE 24/06Z TAF PERIOD, POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THIN
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. A MODEST CU FIELD WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TOWARD MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET WITH JUST CIRRUS
LINGERING PAST 25/00Z. E/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DROPPING
BACK TO NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WINDS DECOUPLE.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 91 65 91 68/ 0 0 0 0
MLU 88 65 91 66/ 0 0 0 0
DEQ 89 58 89 63/ 0 0 0 0
TXK 88 62 89 67/ 0 0 0 0
ELD 87 61 90 64/ 0 0 0 0
TYR 95 66 91 69/ 0 0 0 0
GGG 94 64 93 68/ 0 0 0 0
LFK 94 67 92 68/ 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19
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