445
FXUS64 KSHV 211852
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
152 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY/WARNING HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS AGAIN WEDNESDAY, BUT A WEAK COOL
FRONT ADVANCING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL DICTATE CHANGES.
- ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO BRING RAINFALL, SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
HEAT FOR A FEW DAYS LATE THIS WEEK.
- THE HEAT "RELIEF" WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
LIFT BACK NORTH BY THE WEEKEND WHILE TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE TX WITH NO IMPACTS FOR US.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS OUR CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED
FOR NOW. TO AVOID CONFUSION GOING FORWARD INTO WEDNESDAY, UPDATES
TO HEAT ADVISORY/WARNING PRODUCTS WILL BE MADE WITH THE EXPIRATION
OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES LATER ON THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT, IT
APPEARS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL WARRANT AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OCCURS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS A BUFFER
BETWEEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AND THOSE IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE HEAT HEADLINES DON'T APPEAR NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS AIR
MASS TO FILTER FARTHER SOUTH, THUS THE NEED FOR A CONTINUATION OF
HEAT HEADLINES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY
TO PEAK IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN, FUTURE
UPDATES WILL OUTLINE THIS THREAT IN MORE SPECIFICITY THIS EVENING.
ONCE WE MOVE BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM OUR RECENT
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LAST A FEW DAYS. AT MOST, WE MAY SHAVE
A FEW DEGREES OFF OF AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS BUT THIS WILL ALL BE SHORT-LIVED.
BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND, THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO LARGELY DOMINATE ACROSS ALL OF THE SW
AND S CNTRL CONUS. THEREFORE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND HOTTER
AS UPPER 90S BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW TRIPLE-DIGIT
HIGHS MIXED EACH DAY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LARGELY NEGLIGIBLE. SO BEYOND THE
STRAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY AND ANY
ISOLATED POP-UP ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, LOOK FOR RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS WE ENTER WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OUR
HOTTEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR FROM LATE JULY INTO EARLY AUGUST.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
FOR THE 21/18Z TAFS, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA, INCLUDING KELD AND KMLU, ALONG AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. THIS
CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEAR OR JUST AFTER 22/00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY BY 22/12Z. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20,
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST OVER 10 KTS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
NUTTALL
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 100 76 95 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 80 98 76 94 / 20 0 0 10
DEQ 78 97 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 80 98 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 78 97 72 93 / 20 0 0 0
TYR 81 102 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 81 101 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 102 78 96 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ004>006-
013-014-019>022.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ001>003-010>012-
017-018.
OK...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ077.
TX...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ096-097.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...09
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