924
FXUS64 KSHV 232324
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND GROWING RAINFALL DEFICIT
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH.
- LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE JUST BEYOND THE NEXT 7 DAYS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CLOSER TO HALLOWEEN INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ALOFT FOR EARLY FALL WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ABOVE AVERAGE AS FAR
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS EFFECTIVELY SHIFTS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. WITH TIME, THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
TURN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MEANWHILE, DRIER
AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOWER HUMIDITY AND PLEASANT
MORNINGS/EVENINGS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. UNFORTUNATELY, THE DRY AIR ALSO MEANS A CONTINUED
FIRE DANGER UNDER WORSENING DROUGHT-STRICKEN CONDITIONS AS MIN RH
VALUES HOLD IN THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND
AND LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, WILL EXTEND
THE EXISTING FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATTERN SHIFT BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AS THIS EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT REMAINS ROUGHLY A WEEK OUT, CHANGES
IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF A MAJOR LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT ARE
TO BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW, GULF MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS OUR REGION
STILL APPEARS LIKELY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION, THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY FLATTEN OUT IF NOT
ERODE ENTIRELY AS DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS SW FLOW PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS MORE ACTIVE AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HONE IN ON MORE SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE
END OF OCTOBER INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A VERY
BRIEF WINDOW OF ISOLATED PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY AROUND
THE LAKES OF DEEP EAST TEXAS, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
/NUTTALL/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE EVENT
OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 85 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 50 85 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 49 87 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 52 86 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 86 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 55 85 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 51 86 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 85 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...09
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