846
FXUS64 KSHV 121833
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
133 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- ROBUST RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE THAT
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF RELENTING ANYTIME SOON.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT UNDER THIS VERY
STAGNANT PATTERN.
- FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MANIFEST IN THIS
INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY BLOCKING HIGH REGIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
DREADFUL IS ABOUT THE ONLY WORD THAT COMES TO MIND TO DESCRIBE THIS
FORECAST. A CLASSIC BLOCKING HIGH WILL EFFECTIVELY REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, THEREBY INTENSIFYING
THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RESULTS IN SINKING AIR OR SUBSIDENCE, THE
DOWNWARD MOTION COMPRESSES AND WARMS THE AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
AND EFFECTIVELY TRAPS THE HEAT IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN IS CERTAINLY
NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS TYPICALLY OUR HOTTEST
PART OF THE SUMMER ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER, THE MORE PROLONGED NATURE
OF THIS HEAT WAVE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF RAINFALL WILL PRESENT A
GROWING CONCERN FOR FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND THE CORRESPONDING
FIRE DANGER.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF THIS STAGNANT PATTERN LASTING INTO
NEXT WEEK, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH FURTHER EXTENSIONS LIKELY AS LOWER TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES BECOME EVEN MORE COMMON THIS WEEKEND. IF THERE IS ANY
CONSOLATION, IT APPEARS THE RAPID DRYING OUT OF SOILS WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS IN CHECK ALONG WITH SOME MIXING OUT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUCH THAT THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WON'T BE QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY COMES THE THREAT OF FIRE DANGER
SO IT'S A TRADE-OFF IN THAT RESPECT. FOR THIS REASON, IT'S LIKELY
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS WILL BECOME NECESSARY AT SOME POINT THIS
WEEK AS RAPID DRYING OUT CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE ONSET OF FLASH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12/18Z TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LOWER E TX/N LA NEAR AND S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, WITH A FEW CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER N ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CU FIELD WILL
DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH MOSTLY SKC EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD AGAIN
DEVELOP BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF CIGS AT LFK THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE
QUICKLY LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT. THE CU FIELD SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY S OF I-20 THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH A FEW CU DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS
8-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME S 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 78 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 77 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 76 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15
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