661
FXUS64 KSHV 060512
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1212 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- WHILE WE WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA, SUMMERTIME
HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND WILL KEEP THE ARK-LA-TX ON ITS EASTERN FRINGES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP HEAT AS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL RAIN.
RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES LOWER AND
KEEP US AWAY FROM HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD THE TREND
CONTINUE. SOME SCATTERED POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT, BUT
WPC D1-3 QPF ESTIMATES ARE STILL GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
THE HEAT AND LACK OF ACCUMULATING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS A FOCUS FOR THE NEAR
FUTURE.
BY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN HIGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, THE DIFFERING UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW COULD CREATE MORE OF A DISPARITY BETWEEN THE AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN. THE NBM IS TARGETING PARTS OF DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA AS
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH COULD BE DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THESE
AREAS. THIS IS ONLY ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS FAR OUT. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO INCLUDE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06/00Z TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY
OF THE AREA TERMINALS. HOWEVER, ELEVATED CIGS FROM THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
THINNING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CU REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF LOW MVFR CIGS ALSO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT BY/AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E
TX AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING LFK ONCE AGAIN, BEFORE
LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT BY MID-MORNING. A SCATTERED CU FIELD SHOULD
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE BY MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE AND BREVITY PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE TAF'S ATTM. LIGHT SSE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SSW 5-8KTS AFTER 15Z, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 76 95 76 / 20 0 10 0
MLU 96 74 96 75 / 20 0 10 0
DEQ 97 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 98 76 97 75 / 10 0 10 10
ELD 95 74 95 74 / 20 0 10 10
TYR 97 75 96 75 / 10 0 10 0
GGG 97 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 0
LFK 94 74 94 73 / 10 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...15
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