321
FXUS64 KSHV 292344
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
644 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- IMPACTFUL HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH SOME SAHARAN
DUST LINGERING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT COULD RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH
SOME TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE FOUR STATE REGION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING THAT IS BEGINNING TO BE CENTERED
FURTHER EASTWARD AS IT EXPANDS ALONG AND EASTWARD OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS IT DOES
SO, IT WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE FOR MOST OF
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF SAHARAN DUST LIMITING
INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS MIXING/DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE
PREVENTED ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS
HEAT INDICES REMAIN BELOW OUR 105-DEGREE SPATIOTEMPORAL THRESHOLDS
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR TOMORROW. THE SEVEN DAY OUTLOOK
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE CAROLINA COASTS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY SLIP WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE BY THURSDAY. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
MODES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS A RESULT, MAINLY EAST OF I-49. A
PROLONGED IMPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WILL KEEP IMPACTFUL HEAT IN
PLACE BY INDEPENDENCE DAY, WITH MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINING
A 50 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT SUMMER
WEATHER WITH MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION AND RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT
BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND.
I WILL CONTINUE TO REITERATE THIS MESSAGE BELOW AS A SUMMER SAFETY
REMINDER: WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S THROUGH THIS TIME, HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL BE IMPACTFUL FOR
ALL GROUPS OF PEOPLE AND NOT JUST HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS,
ESPECIALLY WITH MORE TIME SPENT OUTDOORS. ADEQUATE PRECAUTIONS
AND AWARENESS ARE ENCOURAGED NOW AGAINST THE ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ILLNESSES. THIS INCLUDES (AND IS NOT LIMITED TO) ALTERING
OUTDOOR PLANS, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE,
CHECKING THE BACKSEAT OF YOUR VEHICLE, AND KNOWING THE SIGNS AND
SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION IN ADDITION TO HEAT STROKE. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
CU FIELD CONTINUES DISSIPATING AND THUS, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. CONCERNING
OVERNIGHT, TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF
MVFR CEILINGS TO OUR NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE SHV AND TXK
TERMINALS BUT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT, MIGHT NOT
SEE QUITE THE STRATUS RETURN AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
MORNING. ANY MVFR/OR IFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT BY
MID MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 10 40
DEQ 75 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 76 95 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 77 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13
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