014
FXUS64 KSHV 262303
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
603 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- UPPER-LEVEL HEAT RIDGE WILL BUILD STRONGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, MAINTAINING DAILY HEAT HEADLINES.
- A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK BUT WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE, ALTHOUGH IT MAY PROVIDE SOME VERY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
- MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONGER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE DREADED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE ON
OUR REGION ONCE AGAIN, PROPELLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 90S WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING YET TO COME. FORTUNATELY,
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
SO HEAT INDICES ARE MOSTLY MARGINAL SO FAR TODAY FOR MEETING OUR
HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
MIX OUT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
THEREFORE, HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED OUR HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS AND POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA ON THE TABLE FOR LATER THIS WEEK.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
LOOK FOR A GRADUAL STAIR-STEP IN TERMS OF DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK WITH UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS BECOMING THE NORM
ONCE AGAIN. IN ADDITION, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LEAD TO
LESS MIXING WITH DEW POINTS IN MID AND UPPER 70S RETURNING. THUS,
THE CONCERN FOR ESCALATING HEAT HAZARDS THROUGHOUT MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. AT THIS POINT, HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
A GIVEN WHILE ANY UPGRADES TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAIN LESS
CERTAIN. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DAILY TRENDS TO INFORM
ON FUTURE HEAT HAZARD/HEADLINE DECISIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
AS FOR ANY POSSIBLE HEAT RELIEF, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE
WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR THAT OPPORTUNITY. WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NE AND ONLY PRESENT LOW-END
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY OUR E/NE ZONES LATE IN THE WEEK. THEN,
A STRONGER FRONT APPEARS POISED TO ARRIVE BY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES FARTHER WEST OUT ACROSS FOUR-CORNERS REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SMALL UPTICK IN
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA TO MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/00Z. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 6 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO UP TO 10 KNOTS ON
MONDAY, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 6 KNOTS AFTER 27/20Z. OTHERWISE,
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LFK NEAR DAYBREAK. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 98 79 99 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 74 98 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 76 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 77 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 76 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page