036
FXUS64 KSHV 161929
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
229 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA, ENDING THIS EVENING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL RETURN
TO PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THIS MORNING'S SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE STATIONARY FRONT A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE FRONT IS NOW DRAPED
FROM DEEP EAST TX TOWARD NORTHEAST LA, STILL ACTING AS A NORTHERN
BOUNDARY FOR MUCH OF THE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FRONT, BUT RECENT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MORE INITIATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT FRONT. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA HAS ALREADY HAD PLENTY OF RAIN FROM MONDAY, SO ANY ADDITIONAL
RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL OF RUNNING OFF AND CAUSING ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY THIS EVENING AND STAY DRY
OVERNIGHT UNTIL RAIN RETURNS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND DAYBREAK
TOMORROW. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH.
BECAUSE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED, THERE IS LESS, BUT NOT ZERO,
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A
PROPER BREAK IN RAIN AND SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THE NBM HAS MUCH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR HAS AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 90, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
ADVISORIES HAVE BEGUN FOR PTC ONE LATE THIS MORNING. NHC HAS ONE
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE TX
COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL LA. ONE SHOULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH
A CENTER NEAR NORTHEAST LA BY 7AM THURSDAY. EVEN AHEAD OF IT COMING
INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONE IS LIKELY TO ADVECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION THAT WOULD PRIME THE REGION FOR MORE RAINFALL
THURSDAY. ONE WILL THEN BRING ITS OWN RAIN INTO THE REGION AS SOON
AS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE ARK-LA-TX.
THURSDAY'S RAIN WILL DEPEND ON IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK STAYS
CONSISTENT OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LIKELY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL, THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO INCLUDE THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN BUT EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PRIMARY FOCUS,
BUT COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED WHILE IT'S IN THE GULF.
RAIN WILL RETURN TO A BROADER AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE GFS HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON IF SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR, BUT EVEN A SMALL
AMOUNT OF FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVELS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FURTHER EXTENSIONS OF THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY IF
THE CURRENT RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS VERIFY. BUT THIS
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE
TRYING TO SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT WET PATTERN COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO NEAR-ZONAL FLOW OR EVEN WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS DOESN'T GUARANTEE A DRY
PERIOD, AS SUMMER POP-UP SHOWERS TEND TO REMAIN EVEN WITH BROAD
SUBSIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
FOR THE 16/18Z TAF PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS MOVE INTO ALL OF THE
SITES THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT KLFK, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN. EVENTUALLY,
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT, AS LOW CIGS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THE LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN,
WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNING AT KLFK/KMLU. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY BUT INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 90 76 93 / 0 20 30 20
MLU 72 90 76 90 / 10 30 50 60
DEQ 70 92 75 93 / 0 0 10 10
TXK 73 93 76 95 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 70 90 75 91 / 0 10 20 20
TYR 73 91 76 95 / 0 10 10 0
GGG 73 90 75 94 / 0 10 20 10
LFK 72 89 76 95 / 10 30 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ152-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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