417
FXUS63 KGLD 091738
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING WIDELY FROM THE MID AND UPPER
TEENS IN COLORADO, TO MAINLY THE 20S IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. A FEW
SPOTS ARE AROUND THE 30F MARK. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND WESTERLY.
A FEW LOCALES ARE SEEING BRIEF GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
THE MAIN WX FEATURES/CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
INCREASED FIRE WX CONDITIONS AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 72HR PERIOD.
FIRST OFF, LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWING THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
OUR LIGHT FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
TIGHTEN, AIDED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THE REGION OUT
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PROMPTING FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
BY TONIGHT, TROUGH TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PLAINS REGION. WINDS TO SLACKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AREA-WIDE.
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE REGION WILL SEE A REPEAT OF
CONDITIONS TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CWA, COMBINED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES, WILL GIVE THE REGION
DRY WX FOR A NICE WEEKEND. THIS DRYING IS CUMULATIVE OVER THE 3-DAY
PERIOD AND WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED FIRE WX CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AGAIN, PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FETCH, ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO ACTUALLY STEADY OR EVEN INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPS, ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AND ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S, WHILE ON SUNDAY, EVEN WARMER
WITH A RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID
TEENS INTO THE LOWER 20S. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, A WIDE RANGE FOR MOST IN
THE 20S, WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ONLY GETTING DOWN TO
AROUND 30F.
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WIND CHILL
READINGS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH MAINLY SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER
TEENS ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWER AND MID TEENS
EXPECTED AND ON SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION, AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. BLOWING SNOW/DUST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO TREND TEMPS
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
BOTH OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF START OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK ON MONDAY WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE CWA,
PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, TROUGH
WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST, WILL GIVE THE AREA YET ANOTHER WARM AND
DRY DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
TIGHTENS BY THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL GUSTS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE TO APPROACH THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS, COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST. BASED OFF OF
CURRENT LOCAL PARAMETERS, AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 MOST PRONE, BUT
THIS COULD BE EXPANDED WITH LATER GUIDANCE.
WITH THE WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS, MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL AFTER AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 SEEING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS CROP UP.
THE LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST THEN PLAYS ANOTHER BIG ROLE FOR THE
REGION'S WEATHER STARTING LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM,
AIDED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE CWA, SETTING
UP ALONG THE KS/CO/NE BORDER. THE LOW WILL BE BLOCKING TO THE EAST
BY STRONG RIDGING. MODELS DEVELOP PRECIP ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW AS MAINLY SHOWERS IMPACTING EASTERN LOCALES. INSTABILITY PRESENT
TO WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW ITSELF, BUT ON THE
WEST SIDE WITH FLOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHERLY, COLDER AIR AND THE
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW. FOR A SHORT TIME ANY
SNOW STAYS WEST OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES, BUT GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN TUE/TUE NIGHT, THE LOW COMPLEX SHIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. THE WRAP-AROUND FLOW THAT SETS UP WILL
PERSIST WITH A MAJOR IMPACT TO NORTHERN TIER ZONES. GOING INTO
TUESDAY, ALL OF THE WARM AIR PRECIPITATION WILL BE REPLACED BY ALL
SNOW. LATEST NBM/WPC GUIDANCE PUTS A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH TIER FOR
QPF, AND WITH ELEVATION/UPSLOPE EFFECTS, LOOKING FOR HIGHEST
POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS TO OCCUR IN YUMA/KIT CARSON/DUNDY AND CHEYENNE
KS COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW TOTALS COULD REACH THE 3-7 INCH RANGE
ESPECIALLY IN YUMA COUNTY, BUT TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO 2
INCHES OR LESS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW INFILTRATING THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR BLOWING SNOW TO BEGIN AND
WILL BE IMPACTFUL FOR AREA TRAVEL.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR WORKS FURTHER INTO THE
CWA, EXPECTING SNOWPACK TO REMAIN, AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW TO REMAIN AFTER PRECIP HAS ENDED. NORTHWEST ZONES MOST
PRONE FOR THIS AS THESE AREAS WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR AT LEAST AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW.
NEBRASKA ZONES COULD SEE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE EVEN LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY RED WILLOW COUNTY DUE TO THE SLOW
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT EAST OF THE ENTIRE EXITING SYSTEM. STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES TO AID IN
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLDER BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS. THUS DRY, WINDY
AND COLD TO END THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE 30-40 MPH GUSTS ON THU-
FRI.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A WIDE RANGE OF FALLING
TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR 20S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AREA WILL SEE A RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE TEENS WEST MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 30 EAST
AS CLOUDS, MOISTURE BEGIN IN THE CWA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, TEENS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MAINLY SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.
DUE NOTE, ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WILL GREATLY
IMPACT AREA TEMPS, BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. THE CURRENT FORECAST MIGHT
BE TRENDED LOWER IF GUIDANCE DICTATES.
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WINDS BRINGING MAINLY SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN
06-18Z SATURDAY. WINDS OVER KGLD ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 KTS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
SUSTAINED SPEED OVER KGLD WILL BE 5-10 KTS. WINDS OVER KMCK ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AT 5-10 KTS
WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. KMCK AND THE VICINITY AROUND THE TERMINAL COULD OBSERVE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS ~08-13Z SATURDAY MORNING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AT ~40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST FRI DEC 9 2022
FRIDAY....ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WHILE HUMIDITY IS GOING TO DROP TO AT LEAST THE 20S, AND
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GRADIENT BY THE AFTERNOON COULD BRING
GUST POTENTIAL INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
SATURDAY....ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COLORADO, STRETCHING EAST INTO KANSAS FOR LOCALES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. TIMEFRAME REMAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HUMIDITY VALUES DO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20S FOR A
FEW HOURS, WITH SOUTHERLY GUST POTENTIAL NEAR 20 MPH.
SUNDAY....ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
FOR COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS/NE.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND WITH INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS, WILL
HAVE HUMIDITY MAINLY INTO THE TEENS, ESPECIALLY FOR COLORADO. GUSTS
WILL APPROACH THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
MONDAY...ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. HUMIDITY WILL RANGE IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST OVER 20-25 MPH.
WHILE NOT ALL CRITERIA WILL BE MET EACH AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, THE CUMULATIVE DRYING EFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTFUL ON AREA FUELS. CONDITIONS NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WX PRODUCT ISSUANCE, ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...KMK
FIRE WEATHER...JN
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