970
FXUS63 KGLD 071650
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING, THE AREA IS LOOKING AT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE 60S.
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT FOR MOST LOCALES, 10 MPH OR LESS, BUT A FEW
SPOTS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AT TIMES NEAR 20 MPH.
WX CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM/72 HOUR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS MAINLY ON THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. FIRE WX
CONCERNS WILL CROP UP TODAY, AS WELL AS SEVERE WX POSSIBILITIES FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION
TODAY BEFORE GOING TO MORE ZONAL CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH THE
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE NW. AT THE SURFACE TODAY, 850/SFC
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE FRONT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS TO SET UP OVER THE CWA, RANGING FROM 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
RH VALUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
MOSTLY OVER THE AREA, WITH NE COLORADO SEEING THE BIGGEST DROP. WITH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA SEEING READINGS INTO THE 13-15 PERCENT
RANGE, MAINLY WESTERN AREAS, HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING TO ADD IN KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES ALONG WITH YUMA COUNTY. NO CHANGE IN TIMING
OF THE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WILL AID IN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OFF THE FRONT RANGE EAST INTO THE REST OF THE CWA.
WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW RW/TRW. PRECIP
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NE ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT AND END BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT REMAINS OVER THE
CWA, BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER THE PLAINS REGION, AND END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RW/TRW. AMPLE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS PROMPTED SPC TO HAVE EASTERN
LOCALES IN A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY, AND A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THURSDAY. AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WIND/HAIL/ISOLATE TORNADO
THREATS WEDNESDAY, AND WIND/HAIL THREATS FOR THURSDAY. TIMEFRAME
WILL BE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS.
FOR TEMPS, ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS(BY 10-15 DEGREES) WILL PERSIST IN
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 90S,
WITH MANY LOCALES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE 100F MARK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER THRU THE PERIOD DUE TO SOME EXPECTED
PRECIP/CLOUDS. LOOKING FOR MID 60S WEST TO LOW 70S EAST TONIGHT,
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WITH AGAIN A
WEST TO EAST TREND.
WITH SOME AREAS TOPPING OFF NEAR THE 100F MARK ON WEDNESDAY, PLEASE
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGH NUMBERS.
WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SEEING MAINLY 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
UP TO NEAR 100F ON WEDNESDAY, HEAT INDICES WILL BE RANGING MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE 90S, WITH A SOME LOCALES ALONG/EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IN THE 100-105F RANGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020
FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER AIR
RIDGE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION ON FRIDAY
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER AIR HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ/NM. THIS RIDGE STAYS
OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
AN UPPER AIR JET STREAK IS INTRODUCED ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS LATE MONDAY CAUSING THE AIR ALOFT TO START A WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TRI-
STATE REGION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PATTERN
ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN APPEARS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH OVER CENTRAL NE WHICH
CAN PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED ALONG WITH THE 850MB MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
DUE TO THE EXPECTED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD,
BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD PARTICULARLY FOR THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER AS MODELS SHOW RH VALUES AROUND 20% AND FORECASTED WIND GUST
VALUES APPROACHING 20 KTS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS RH VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE BELOW 20%
WITH WIND GUSTS ALMOST REACHING THE 25 KT CRITERIA IN THE EASTERN CO
COUNTIES. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE FORECASTED
CONDITIONS CHANGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA ARE EXPECTED BE WITHIN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THEY WILL
STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF SETTING RECORDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING AND SURPASSING THE 100 DEGREE MARK CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA ON SATURDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHILE IN EASTERN CWA COUNTIES, THEY WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 35KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT THEN HOVERING IN THE 10-13KT RANGE TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 13KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE MORNING THEN FALLING TO AROUND 6KTS OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. CURRENTLY AM EXPECTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY
BE NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z OR SO PLUS OR MINUS AN
HOUR OR TWO, WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND SEE IF IT SURVIVES WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. FOR
NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT THEN HOVERING AROUND 10KTS TIL SUNRISE WHEN
WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5KTS. FOR WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AROUND
11KTS EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 8:
GOODLAND KS 106F/1897
BURLINGTON CO 102F/2005+ (+ DENOTES MULTIPLE YEARS)
HILL CITY KS 106F/1934
MCCOOK NE 106F/1930
TRIBUNE KS 105F/2001
YUMA CO 106F/1989
COLBY KS 106F/2001
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MRC
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...JN
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