970  
FXUS63 KGLD 071650  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1050 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING, THE AREA IS LOOKING AT  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE 60S.  
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT FOR MOST LOCALES, 10 MPH OR LESS, BUT A FEW  
SPOTS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AT TIMES NEAR 20 MPH.  
 
WX CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM/72 HOUR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO  
FOCUS MAINLY ON THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. FIRE WX  
CONCERNS WILL CROP UP TODAY, AS WELL AS SEVERE WX POSSIBILITIES FOR  
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION  
TODAY BEFORE GOING TO MORE ZONAL CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK WITH THE  
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE NW. AT THE SURFACE TODAY, 850/SFC  
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE FRONT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
THE SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY  
CONDITIONS TO SET UP OVER THE CWA, RANGING FROM 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.  
RH VALUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S  
MOSTLY OVER THE AREA, WITH NE COLORADO SEEING THE BIGGEST DROP. WITH  
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS AREA SEEING READINGS INTO THE 13-15 PERCENT  
RANGE, MAINLY WESTERN AREAS, HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE THE AREAL  
COVERAGE OF THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING TO ADD IN KIT  
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES ALONG WITH YUMA COUNTY. NO CHANGE IN TIMING  
OF THE WARNING AT THIS TIME.  
 
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE  
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WILL AID IN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE  
LEE-SIDE TROUGH OFF THE FRONT RANGE EAST INTO THE REST OF THE CWA.  
WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW RW/TRW. PRECIP  
SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NE ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT AND END BY 06Z  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT REMAINS OVER THE  
CWA, BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/FRONT WILL LINGER  
OVER THE PLAINS REGION, AND END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RW/TRW. AMPLE  
INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS PROMPTED SPC TO HAVE EASTERN  
LOCALES IN A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY, AND A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR THURSDAY. AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CWA,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WIND/HAIL/ISOLATE TORNADO  
THREATS WEDNESDAY, AND WIND/HAIL THREATS FOR THURSDAY. TIMEFRAME  
WILL BE THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS.  
 
FOR TEMPS, ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS(BY 10-15 DEGREES) WILL PERSIST IN  
THE SHORT TERM THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 90S,  
WITH MANY LOCALES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE 100F MARK. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER THRU THE PERIOD DUE TO SOME EXPECTED  
PRECIP/CLOUDS. LOOKING FOR MID 60S WEST TO LOW 70S EAST TONIGHT,  
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WITH AGAIN A  
WEST TO EAST TREND.  
 
WITH SOME AREAS TOPPING OFF NEAR THE 100F MARK ON WEDNESDAY, PLEASE  
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD HIGH NUMBERS.  
 
WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SEEING MAINLY 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES,  
UP TO NEAR 100F ON WEDNESDAY, HEAT INDICES WILL BE RANGING MAINLY IN  
THE UPPER 80S THROUGH THE 90S, WITH A SOME LOCALES ALONG/EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 83 IN THE 100-105F RANGE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
FOR THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER AIR  
RIDGE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION ON FRIDAY  
DRIVEN BY AN UPPER AIR HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ/NM. THIS RIDGE STAYS  
OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.  
AN UPPER AIR JET STREAK IS INTRODUCED ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN  
GREAT PLAINS LATE MONDAY CAUSING THE AIR ALOFT TO START A WESTERLY  
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TRI-  
STATE REGION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PATTERN  
ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN APPEARS ON SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW AN  
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING THROUGH OVER CENTRAL NE WHICH  
CAN PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED ALONG WITH THE 850MB MOISTURE FOR A  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.  
 
DUE TO THE EXPECTED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD,  
BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST  
PERIOD PARTICULARLY FOR THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO  
BORDER AS MODELS SHOW RH VALUES AROUND 20% AND FORECASTED WIND GUST  
VALUES APPROACHING 20 KTS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE  
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS RH VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE BELOW 20%  
WITH WIND GUSTS ALMOST REACHING THE 25 KT CRITERIA IN THE EASTERN CO  
COUNTIES. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE FORECASTED  
CONDITIONS CHANGE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA ARE EXPECTED BE WITHIN THE  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE THEY WILL  
STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES SHY OF SETTING RECORDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES  
REACHING AND SURPASSING THE 100 DEGREE MARK CAN BE EXPECTED FOR  
PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA ON SATURDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN  
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHILE IN EASTERN CWA COUNTIES, THEY WILL  
BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S RANGE DURING THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS  
GUSTING TO 35KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z  
TONIGHT THEN HOVERING IN THE 10-13KT RANGE TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 13KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED  
IN THE MORNING THEN FALLING TO AROUND 6KTS OR SO BY THE END OF THE  
PERIOD. CURRENTLY AM EXPECTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY  
BE NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z OR SO PLUS OR MINUS AN  
HOUR OR TWO, WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO  
AND SEE IF IT SURVIVES WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. FOR  
NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.  
 
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-  
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE  
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT THEN HOVERING AROUND 10KTS TIL SUNRISE WHEN  
WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5KTS. FOR WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AROUND  
11KTS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 8:  
 
GOODLAND KS 106F/1897  
 
BURLINGTON CO 102F/2005+ (+ DENOTES MULTIPLE YEARS)  
 
HILL CITY KS 106F/1934  
 
MCCOOK NE 106F/1930  
 
TRIBUNE KS 105F/2001  
 
YUMA CO 106F/1989  
 
COLBY KS 106F/2001  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.  
 
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...MRC  
AVIATION...99  
CLIMATE...JN  
 
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