794
FXUS63 KGLD 140644
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1244 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY GET TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND
MAY POSE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND 50 AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE CWA, BUT CHANCES ARE LESS THAN
10%.
THE WINDS TODAY FINALLY TAKE A BREAK AND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
20 KTS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. OVERALL, TODAY LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT, CLOUDY
DAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT 300 K, THERE IS
A FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS A
ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 83 AROUND AND AFTER 21Z. AS THE HIGH RETREATS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
FORM OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NEITHER OF
THESE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
THE SHOWERS COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE LOOK TO BE SUSTAINED BY A
WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE. THIS PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND 50.
MONDAY, SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING, BUT WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO AROUND 80.
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A LOW COMES OUT OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND TO FLOW INTO THE CWA. THIS
WILL LET TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S AND PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR TUESDAY STILL HAS THE RIDGE OFF THE
PACIFIC- NORTHWEST AND OVER OUR AREA THE FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWER 90S RANGE. THE WINDS REMAIN CALM AND
GUSTS TAME. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, POPS ARE CURRENTLY
SHOWING 5-10% CHANCE AND WITH THERE BEING CAPE LESS THAN 500
J/KG, THESE WOULD LIKELY JUST BE POP-UP RAIN SHOWERS IF ANYTHING
WERE TO DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY, STILL LOOKS TO HAVE A CONCERN FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S.
LOOKING AT GUIDANCE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 100 FOR THE DAY
IS AROUND 20-45%. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE SEEN
ARE 100-105 DEGREES WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 105. THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR ABOVE 100 STILL WOULD BE SOUTH OF
I-70 AND EAST OF KS HWY 25. THE LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOK TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE EFI SOT SHOWING VALUES IN THE 0.6-0.7
FOR YUMA COUNTY. CURRENTLY THE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
MID TO HIGH 60S.
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE PRESENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) AND THE MAIN TIMING FOCUS IS IN THE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING HOURS THEN SHIFTING AROUND MIDDAY TO BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE. THE GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-45 MPH
RANGE. ONE THING TO NOTE, GUIDANCE IS DISAGREEING ON THE PEAK
GUST SPEEDS. THE NBM IS CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HIGHER VALUES
WITH A 15-35% CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH. THE LREF
HAS THE GUSTS HAS A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH. MOVING ON
TO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES, THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
LOOKS TO GET BELOW 15%. THE LOWEST RH VALUES LOOK TO BE WEST OF
KS HWY 27, AND VALUES IN SINGLE DIGITS FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
COLORADO. MOVING TO GFDI, THERE ARE VALUES 50+ FOR MAINLY YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN CO. THIS WOULD INDICATE VERY HIGH
FIRE GROWTH. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE ARE THE
INGREDIENTS/CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BEING MET AT THE
SAME TIME. THE HIGHER GUSTS ARE MORE FAVORED FOR YUMA AND THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF KIT CARSON IN THE MORNING, BUT THE RH VALUES
DO NOT BEGIN TO DECREASE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND THE LOWEST
VALUES FAVOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN COLORADO. ONE LAST THING TO
NOTE, IS THIS IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, BUT THERE IS SIGNAL FOR AT
LEAST THERE BEING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER PRESENT AND CURRENTLY
30-40% THAT CONDITIONS WILL MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA AT SOME POINT
IN THE DAY.
ONE OTHER HAZARD THAT MAYBE PRESENT WEDNESDAY, IS LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST. AFTER LOOKING AT GUIDANCE THE CONDITIONS ARE THERE
FOR PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST. GIVEN THE 2-2.5 C/KM IS HIGHER THAN
THE THRESHOLD, ANY DUST SHOULD GET MIXED UP INTO ATMOSPHERE AND
COULD CREATE AIR QUALITY ISSUES AND VISIBILITY COULD GET
REDUCED DOWN TO A MILE.
FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE WINDS COMING FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. DURING THIS PERIOD THERE COULD BE SOME SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD BRING US SOME PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO HIGH
90S. THURSDAY DOES HAVE A COOL DOWN, AS THERE IS A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING THE HIGHS DOWN TO THE MID
80S. THE WINDS AND GUSTS BOTH SHOW SOME SIGNS OF THERE BEING
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BUT IT VARIES DAY TO DAY. AS FOR PRECIPATION
CHANCES, FRIDAY HAS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
FRIDAY'S SFC-CAPE VALUES, FROM GUIDANCE, ARE AROUND THE
1000-1500 J/KG FOR THE MEAN. THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR BOTH THE
NBM AND LREF ARE AROUND THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. THESE VALUES
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE NCAR AI NWP
CONVECTIVE HAZARD FORECAST DOES HAVE SOME FORECASTS SHOWING A
5-15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAZARDS. GRANTED THIS IS STILL ABOUT A
WEEK AWAY AND A FAIR AMOUNT CAN CHANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
KGLD AND KMCK. AT KMCK, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND FAVOR
A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AT KGLD, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 9-10Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE A 10-15%
CHANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page