136
FXUS63 KGLD 242207
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
407 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL POTENTIALLY REACHING 4 INCHES IN
DIAMETER, WIND GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH, AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO
ARE POSSIBLE.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
TODAY, SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT MUCH SOONER THAN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY MORE CAPE FOR
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TO FEED OFF OF. HIGHS ARE NOW
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO FIRE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN THE MID-AFTERNOON AND
ENTER THE CWA AROUND 23-01Z. A WIDE 500 MB TROUGH IS WHAT WILL BE
THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION. I MENTION IT'S
WIDE, BECAUSE IT COULD STRETCH FROM THE CO/UT TO KS/MO BORDER
OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF LANDSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM GOVE TO YUMA COUNTIES BEFORE
THE MAIN STORMS MOVE IN.
SEVERE THREATS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL START OFF WITH HAIL
AROUND OR LARGER THAN 3 INCHES AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BEING
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY. RFD WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE 80 MPH
RANGE EARLY ON AS STORMS ARE MORE ISOLATED AND STARTING TO CLUSTER.
ONCE THEY HAVE CLUSTERED, THE HAIL THREAT LOWERS TO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR 80 MPH INCREASES AND IF A BOWING
SEGMENT FORMS. THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO LOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERNIGHT, BUT A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO PERSIST UNTIL 6-9Z WITH LINGERING SUB-
SEVERE STORMS AND SHOWERS LASTING UNTIL AS LATE AS NOON TOMORROW.
THIS LEADS TO AN ADDITIONAL FLOODING THREAT, DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE
HYDRO SECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND 60 AND AREAS THAT ARE NOT
EXPERIENCING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
TOMORROW'S HIGH HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW LOW CONVECTION LASTS, BUT MAY
BE CAPPED IN THE 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AND NEAR 80 FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA.
THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO HAVE A LULL SOMETIME IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE'S ONLY ABOUT 50-60% CONFIDENCE IN THIS
LULL. IN THE AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING, ANOTHER WAVE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THE 500 MB TROUGH THAT WILL BE FORCING THIS LOOKS TO ONLY LEAD
TO SPOTTY, WIDESPREAD VORTICITY. THIS LOWERS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS STILL A 10-20% CHANCE FOR 1-2 INCH HAIL
AND 60 MPH WINDS. THIS SEVERE THREAT COULD ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED
MORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE CONVECTION
EARLY IN THE MORNING MAY PREVENT ANY EVENING SEVERE STORMS FROM
OCCURRING. ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION MAY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION OUT OF A MOSTLY ZONAL
PATTERN INTO A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH WEST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S TO
80S WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN, BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 90S TO 100S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), THIS
LESSENS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS
AFTER TUESDAY AS AN INCOMING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS SINCE THIS IS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL STORMS
MOVE IN. WE ARE EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP ACROSS
THE REGION, LIKELY GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS BEFORE SUNSET. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.
NEAR MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW LASTING INTO THE MIDDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
OBSERVATIONS AT OBERLIN SHOW THE SAPPA CREEK AS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE, ALLOWING THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING TO BE DROPPED. HOWEVER,
BASED ON UPCOMING QPF, THE RIVER MAY RETURN BACK TO 15.5 FEET
(MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). DUE TO THIS FORECAST, A RIVER FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAPPA CREEK AT OBERLIN TO THE
COUNTY LINE. BASED ON THE 1996 FLOODING ALONG THE SAPPA CREEK,
THE NCRK1 GAUGE SHOULD SEE A RISE TO AROUND 10-12 FEET, WHICH IS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ALSO, BASED ON THE EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE REPUBLIC RIVER WILL ALSO SEE AT LEAST IN BANK
RISES.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAVE LEAD TO 1-6
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA, SAVE FOR
CHEYENNE COUNTY, CO. STORMS TONIGHT EARLY IN THE EVENT LOOK TO HAVE
SLOW MOTIONS. BUNKERS RIGHT MOTION LOOK TO CRAWL AROUND 5-15 KTS
WITH BUNKERS LEFT MOTION MOVING AROUND 10-25 KTS. 0C LEVELS LOOK TO
STILL BE IN THE 15,000 FOOT RANGE, LEADING TO A DEEP MELTING LAYER.
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.2-1.5 INCH RANGE, SO EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THAT, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT "FINGERS" OF
BACKBUILDING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD KEEP EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION OVER ONE AREA FOR UP TO A FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.5 INCH TOTALS, BUT SWATHS OF 3.5-5+ INCHES.
WHAT IS EXTRA CONCERNING IS GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE HIGH RAINFALL
TOTALS OCCURRING NEAR THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OFF AND ON TOMORROW AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
MAY BECOME A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page