661
FXUS63 KGLD 120822
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA MAY OCCASIONALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, 60S, AND MAYBE 70S RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT OVER APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. RAP DEVELOPS FOG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST KANSAS
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, WITH SATURATION DEEP ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE
AS WELL. HOWEVER, HRRR DOES NOT SHOW THIS, AND LAMP VISIBILITIES
DO NOT EITHER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL MENTION SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STALLS OUT IN FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON WHERE THEY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S, BUT STAYED NEAR
GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S
IN COLORADO WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST AFTERNOON SUN. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL
WHERE WIND DIRECTION HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT, BUT WESTERLY
WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY LIMITED MIXING WITH A STOUT INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB,
SO DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL GET MUCH HIGHER. THERE WILL BE A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON,
TO AROUND 60 IN CHEYENNE COUNTY, COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS, PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN FAR EASTERN AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON AND HILL CITY.
ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WHICH ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
HIGHWAYS 25/83. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S, WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S, POSSIBLY LOWER 60S IN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT ONCE AGAIN
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LIMITED BY AN INVERSION AROUND 800 MB.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
COLD AIR FINALLY GETS SCOURED OUT MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF COLORADO, WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 MPH. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
MODELS SHOW A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A CUT OFF LOW WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH IN MEXICO. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE MILD FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN
70S ON WEDNESDAY, THEN COOL ON THURSDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE 50S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY, BUT DO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY, SO WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO REACH CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ON THAT DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST THU DEC 11 2025
A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM
NEBRASKA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT IT IS AN IDEAL UPSLOPE
DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG AND
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT THE
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT. A RETURN TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT
KGLD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AT KMCK THE CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON, IF NOT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024
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