251  
FXUS63 KGLD 201315  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
615 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 613 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SNOWFALL AND PATCHY  
FOG IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WILL INCLUDE ENDING OF SNOW  
AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY, NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE  
SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH  
AMERICA.  
 
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO  
THE EAST AND NORTH AS IT INTENSIFIES. POTENT UPPER SYSTEM MOVING  
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.  
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF COLD  
AIR WITH IT. ALSO MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR  
TO WELL ABOVE 100 METERS. THIS WILL BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR OUR  
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  
 
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL BUT THE ALL IMPORTANT JET  
BEHIND THE NEXT SYSTEM WAS NOT SAMPLED. IN FACT I WILL BE A LITTLE  
LEERY OF THE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL IT GETS SAMPLED  
BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. MODELS HAVING THEIR DIFFICULTIES AT MID  
LEVELS. WITH OUR CURRENT SYSTEM MODELS TENDED HAVE THE SYSTEM TOO  
FAR SOUTH WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF DOING BETTER. WITH THE WESTERN  
SYSTEM, MODELS WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE/TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST WITH  
THIS SYSTEM.  
 
TODAY/TONIGHT...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE  
LIFT LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE  
DAY. HAVE CANCELLED SOME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, AND MAY END UP CANCELING THE REST OF  
THE ADVISORY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
 
DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, AND IT LOOKS LIKE  
WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 TO 20 MPH AND MAYBE LOW END BREEZY IF  
ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS. WITH THE SNOW SO LIGHT AND LITTLE TO NO  
MELTING TAKING PLACE, THIS COULD CAUSE A SHORT PERIOD OF BLOWING  
SNOW. SO HAVE INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE THIS MORNING  
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE ENTIRE AREA GOT COVERED WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SOUTHERN  
PORTION GETTING THE LEAST IT LOOKS LIKE AT THIS TIME. WILL GET SOME  
SUN WITH WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. AM THINKING THE SNOW WILL HINDER  
THE WARMING. SO KEPT THE IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT  
WARM IT UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  
 
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW DOWN THE  
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS AND ESPECIALLY THE FOG. CHOSE TO KEEP PATCHY FOG  
OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS AGAIN.  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND DIG OVER THE WESTERN  
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.  
 
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE  
MORNING. WITH A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND WITH THE  
EXPECTED GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS, WINDS MAY END UP STRONG THAT  
WHAT THE MODELS HAVE IN THERE. SO RAMPED WINDS UP, AND THEY MAY NEED  
TO BE DONE MORE.  
 
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL AND INDIRECT AFFECT OF THIS PROCESS IS TO  
CAUSE A JET SEGMENT TO DEVELOP OR MOVE BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA. AS  
A RESULT THE JET AXIS/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THIS JET BEGIN TO  
AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS JET CONTINUES TO PULL  
NORTH AND PUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA UNDER THE AFFECTS OF A  
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
LATEST FORECAST BUILDER KEPT THURSDAY DRY BUT EXPANDED THE POPS FOR  
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION  
OF THE AREA. WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT RESIDES IS WHERE  
THE BUILDER HAS THE POPS, AND LEFT THOSE ALONE. HOWEVER, DESPITE A  
LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, THERE IS STRONG  
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG WITH DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES. SO  
INSERTED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED IF POPS ARE EXPANDED FURTHER, AND THIS WAS ALSO A REASON  
TO PUT IN THE SPRINKLE AND FLURRIE MENTION.  
 
THERE LOOKS TO BE RATHER THICK CLOUD COVER AT MULTIPLE LEVELS WITH  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. THOSE REASONS PLUS SNOW  
COVER THAT WILL STILL BE AROUND LED ME TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES  
FROM WHAT THE BUILDER GAVE ME.  
 
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA REMAINS UNDER THE AFFECT OF THE RIGHT  
REAR QUADRANT OF JET THROUGH THE DAY. THAT JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA  
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE  
STORM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED AND MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA, THE CHANCE  
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS  
DURING THE NIGHT.  
 
HOWEVER THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPEED, POSITION, AND HOW  
MUCH/WHEN THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CUTOFF. AM CONCERNED BASED ON THE  
CURRENT PATTERN AND STRONG RIDGING BEHIND THE SYSTEM, THAT THIS  
STORM COULD GO BY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. EVEN  
IF THE CLOSED OFF PORTION OF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH,  
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT MOVES ACROSS. THE  
FORECAST BUILDER GAVE ME RATHER HIGH POPS, MUCH ABOVE CHANCE, ACROSS  
MOST OF THE AREA.  
 
I AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THESE. HOWEVER, WITH THE DECENT FORCING  
SHOWN AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INDICATING A RATHER  
HIGH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, I KEPT WHAT THE BUILDER  
GAVE ME. MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS  
OVERLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT  
A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A WINTRY MIX AS THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS ACROSS  
THE AREA. AGAIN PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST.  
 
CLOUD COVER WILL BE EVEN THICKER WITH A MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT  
EXPECT WITH THE PREFRONTAL WIND FIELD. ALSO THE FRONT MAX SAG INTO A  
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. DUE TO A NUMBER OF THINGS  
POINTING TO THE BUILDER TEMPERATURES BEING TOO WARM, I LOWERED THE  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 414 AM MST  
WED FEB 20 2019  
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER  
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  
THIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS HAD IT LAST NIGHT. THE  
LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS  
WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  
 
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE DAY  
SATURDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. A  
LIGHT WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. I CONTINUE TO HAVE  
CONCERNS ABOUT A POSSIBLE SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.  
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ABOUT COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF  
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
BELOW NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID  
40S.  
 
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION, MOVING TO THE  
NORTHEAST. MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WHILE TUESDAY MORNING  
LOWS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KGLD, THE WINDS  
WILL START OUT WEST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS. AROUND 17Z THE WEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23 KNOTS.  
THIS WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW WITH VFR IS  
STILL EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 23Z WHEN THE WINDS STOP  
GUSTING AND DECREASE TO 7 KNOTS. AROUND 03Z THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO  
THE SOUTH AT 6 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
UPDATED  
 
FOR KMCK, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE  
FIRST HOUR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST  
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE  
VICINITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST. AT 13Z  
THE WINDS BECOME WEST AT 6 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TO AROUND 23Z, THE WEST  
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KNOTS. AGAIN  
THIS WILL CAUSE A MINOR REDUCTION IN THE VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING  
SNOW. AT 00Z, THE WINDS WILL STOP GUSTING AND DECREASE TO 6 KNOTS.  
AT 03Z THOSE 6 KNOT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BULLER  
SHORT TERM...BULLER  
LONG TERM...AW  
AVIATION...BULLER  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page
The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab NE Page Main Text Page