935
FXUS63 KGLD 142314
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE A
DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WITH WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITHE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. GFS HAS THE LOW, AND
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION, IN NORTHEAST COLORADO COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
MONDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW IMPACT WITH
TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING ALL RAIN AS OPPOSED TO SNOW. MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUDS LINGER THE LONGEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE AFTERNOON SUN.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ANY LINGERING WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS (KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER AREA). LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO
LATE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE LOW, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH OF THOSE DAYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK, TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME,
THE USUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS. THE GFS SHOWS A SLOWER, WETTER SCENARIO WITH A CUT OFF
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SHOWS A FASTER,
DRIER SCENARIO WITH AN OPEN WAVE WHICH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND ONLY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NEITHER MODEL
IS SUGGESTING SNOW AT THIS TIME WITH A ROBUST WARM LAYER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES DO SLIGHTLY COOL FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. BEHIND THE
FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
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