758
FXUS63 KGLD 052037
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
STRONGEST ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
LARGE SCALE RIDGING IS CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 576-579 DM HEIGHTS ALREADY EXTENDING
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE THERE IS LINGERING NORTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 70 AND BEFORE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ENDS SOME
LOCATIONS COULD EXCEED 70. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PERIODICALLY GUSTING
AROUND 25 MPH WHERE LINGERING 850MB WINDS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE.
THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND ALOFT, SO WE SHOULD SE
A DOWNWARD TREND IN PEAK GUSTS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES HAVE HELD ABOVE 20% THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST,
LIMITING IMPACTS TO FIRE WEATHER.
THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK (DRY) COLD FRONT
ON FRIDAY THAT KNOCKS TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY, BUT THERE
SHOULD REMAIN MILD (LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S). AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST HERE IS A WINDOW FOR SW FLOW ALOFT THAT NOSES UP INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WAA AND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MAY BE
SIMILAR TO DAY (MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S COMMON). ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 16% (EASTERN CO) TO
THE 20% RANGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN KS/NE.
A NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL BE TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SECONDARY
850MB JET (20-30KT) THAT IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE TOWARDS NORTHEAST CO.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IN RELATION TO PEAK MIXING
THERE COULD BE GUSTS 25 MPH+ OVER PARTS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES COINCIDING WITH WHERE THE LOWER RH VALUES ARE FORECAST.
THERE STILL ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RH VALUES 15% OR
LOWER IN THOSE AREAS, AND THE WINDS ARE CONDITIONAL ON THE TIMING OF
THAT LLJ LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MATCHING RFW IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR BRIEF/LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.|
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AS WELL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 12-14C
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT OVERLY CONCERNING FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO WEAK OR WEAKENING 850MB JETS AND 700MB
WINDS SHOULD MIXING BE DEEP ENOUGH SHOULD MIXING BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH. WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS SO LOW IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON TRENDS WITH THESE JETS HOWEVER.
TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH PUTTING AN END TO
THE MILD TEMPERATURES AS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL TO AROUND 0-2C AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. GFS SUGGESTS THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AS IT IS SUGGESTING A LARGE AREA OF -3 MICROBARS OF OMEGA AROUND
THE 850MB LEVEL. DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECWMF IS AROUND 24 HOURS
SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER. GEFS AVERAGE SPREAD IS
ACTUALLY A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS WHICH
IS TYPICALLY WHAT DOES OCCUR AS COLD FRONTS DO MOVE THROUGH A
LITTLE QUICKER IN REALITY IN THE GOODLAND FORECAST AREA. IF THE
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES OCCUR THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY COULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THERE STILL
REMAIN QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD TO THE TIMING, LOCATION AND TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION AS GUIDANCE DOES SPREAD ON HOW A PATTERN CHANGE
TO MORE TROUGHING OCCURS. IF SNOW WERE TO OCCUR IT APPEARS THAT
THE FAVORED TIME PERIOD FOR IT WOULD BE LATER IN IN THE WORK
WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S
FOR HIGHS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL SPLIT FLOW COULD RETURN WHICH
WOULD DECREASE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASE OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING. CURRENTLY, THAT
SOLUTION SEEMS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR. AT THIS TIME NOT CONCERNED
FOR IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL BUT THE 12Z LREF DOES INDICATE THAT IF
TROUGHING CAN BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW
WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK. CURRENTLY
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LESS THAN 5%. OVERALL THOUGH FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, NOTHING THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY SUGGESTING THAT
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL OCCUR BUT THERE ARE A FEW SCENARIOS THAT
IT COULD CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK, WITH ONLY PASSING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS (ABOVE 20 KFT AGL).
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS PERIODICALLY GUSTING AROUND 25KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING WINDS AS
DAYTIME MIXING ENDS AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. A NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IN CENTRAL NE WITH BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (35-40KT) AT KMCK ENDING AS THIS TRANSITIONS
EAST AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME
MIXING WILL BRING WITH IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN
AT BOTH TAF SITES FRIDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...DR
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