584
FXUS63 KGLD 292015
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO AND KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
A SURFACE HIGH IS EXITING THE AREA LEADING TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE
MORNING FOG. 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
YUMA COUNTY THIS MORNING WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AREA. RAP CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT
SOME LINGERING DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WHICH IS IMPACTING THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY GOES ON AS THE
DISSIPATION OF THE RAIN SHOULD IMPROVE THE MOISTURE QUALITY IN
THE LOW LEVELS. RAIN COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
AREA AS SYNOPTIC FORCING IMPROVES AS THE AREA IS IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A 500MB JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND
800-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 7.5-8.0 C/KM AND 0-6 SHEAR
AROUND 40 KNOTS. IF A ROBUST ENOUGH OF AN UPDRAFT CAN OCCUR THEN
HAIL AROUND QUARTER SIZE MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR. WIND DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN BUT WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH MAY BE
PRESENT AS WELL.
OVERNIGHT, A STRENGTHENING 250MB JET PUTS LOCALES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I70 IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KNOT JET STREAK. A
700MB FGEN BAND IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AS WELL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS BAND VARIES BETWEEN THE RAP AND NAM AS THE NAM
KEEPS IT NORTH OF I70. 00Z LREF FAVORS THE RAP SOLUTION OF THE
FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT SO WILL FOCUS HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OVERALL A PROLONGED LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPATION IS FORECAST
TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE WHERE RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS
A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE MORE
MEAGER SO ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. AS THIS OCCURS SKIES
ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DUE TO THIS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
FRIDAY, DISORGANIZED RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FORECAST TO
BE SATURATED SO FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
A LARGE MIXING RATIO DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO 1KM AGL
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AS WELL. A STRONG 500MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENTLY THIS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. GFS
SPAGHETTI IS FAVORING A BIT OF A FURTHER WEST TREND WITH THIS SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THIS DOES BECOME THE NORM
WITH GUIDANCE. IF THIS DOES OCCUR THEN SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORM MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AS WELL. ANY STORMS
HOWEVER WOULD BE MAINLY GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS WITH INVERTED
SOUNDINGS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES BRING SOME CONCERN FOR DRY LIGHTNING
SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP WITH THIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH
WEAKER OVERALL. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. POPS PEAK AROUND
80% ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA, TAPERING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS
FORCING WEAKENS TOWARDS THAT DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE HIGH
50S TO LOW 60S.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S
FOR SATURDAY AND 70S TO 80S FOR SUNDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE THE MID TEENS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN CWA. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN
RESPONSE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SUNDAY, A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST COAST WITH A
RIDGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
CALIFORNIA. UNTIL THIS BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS TO MOVE EAST, WE WILL
SEE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIFFER ON WHEN
THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE ON, BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE ON AFTER
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA,ALBEIT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS
AROUND 060 WILL BE PRESENT. WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHTING CONCERNS AT MCK LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR GLD,
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE FAVORED TIME OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY START LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MAY DELAY THE START HENCE
THE PROB30. INCREASING SIGNAL FOR SME MVFR CEILINGS AT GLD
LATER IN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
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