982
FXUS63 KGLD 201924
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1224 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH POCKETS OF 2-4
INCHES IS EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
TODAY, OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 250 MB JET
STREAM FIGHTS AGAINST THIS TROUGH, WE'LL BE HAVING SOME LIGHT, BUT
WIDESPREAD FORCING DURING THE DAY TODAY, AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.
ADDITIONALLY, DURING THE DAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A BIT OF
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL PROMOTE OVERCAST
SKIES AND SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL
ALSO KEEP US COOL WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE CWA.
THE BULK OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 20-22Z FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. PEAK TIMING FOR THE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0-6Z
AND WILL BEGIN EXITING THE AREA BETWEEN 10-15Z SATURDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING SO COLD, P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLRS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 15-17:1 RANGE, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 20:1. MOST
OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SIGNS OF LESS THAN 10 MICROBARS OF OMEGA IN
THE THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 0-3Z, WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY.
THIS COULD INDICATE 1+ INCH SNOWFALL/HOUR RATES, BUT WOULD ONLY
OCCUR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AREAS UNDER THIS ENHANCEMENT COULD
SEE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES. AS IT STANDS,
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SITS AT 20-30%
FROM THE REFS, 0-15% FROM HREF, AND 25-50% FROM THE NBM. THE NBM 50%
PROBABILITY IS BASICALLY JUST IN SHERIDAN COUNTY, OTHERWISE IT'S A
25-40% PROBABILITY. THIS LEADS US TO BELIEVE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
ON A SIDE NOTE, THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSNOW OR A SNOW-SQUALL BETWEEN 21-03Z TODAY. THE AREA THAT SPC
HAS OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL THUNDER TODAY COULD SEE A DRYLINE PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY BE RELYING ON FORCING AS
CAPE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED. IMPACTS FROM THIS COULD INCLUDE A RAPID
DROP IN VISIBILITIES, DOWN UNDER A MILE IN HEAVY SNOW.
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
SNOW, NOT IN THE POTENTIAL SQUALL, THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
MIDDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AND FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW OF A SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE ARE EXPECTED. POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR TODAY BECAUSE THE WIND
SHOULD BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME THE MAIN SNOW BEGINS. IT'S LOW FOR
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL HAVE HAD SOME TIME TO SETTLE BEFORE
THE WIND PICKS UP. AREAS THAT SEE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ALSO
HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING VISIBILITY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1
MILE, PRIMARILY FROM THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. WINDS OVERNIGHT LOOK
TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH, BUT WILL BE VARIABLE.
THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL SHOWING SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG/LIGHT
FLURRIES TOMORROW MORNING, TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN,
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15F, SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS ARE
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR AND INSTEAD SMALL ICE PARTICULATE IS MORE LIKELY.
THIS IS BETTER THAN SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AS THE ICE WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME LATCHING TO SURFACES TO MAKE THEM SLICK. ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCING FOG/FLURRIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 16-17Z.
SATURDAY A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PUSH
OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO START
REBOUNDING AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S. AS TEMPERATURES WARM, RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS, AGAIN. EASTERN COLORADO COULD
ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS, LEADING TO SOME LOW END FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RH AND WINDS MAY BRIEFLY HIT CRITICALITY IN
EASTERN COLORADO, BUT THE RECENT LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL HELP MINIMIZE
ANY THREATS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, BUT MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REBOUND A BIT, KEEPING RH VALUES ABOVE 25%.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS, WITH ISOLATED SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
NORTHERN CWA. WIND CHILLS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 0F, WITH ISOLATED
-5F POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
MONDAY, OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND THE MID 70S FOR
TUESDAY. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY MILD FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA), BUT OUR COLORADO COUNTIES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST, SO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO WARM AND DRY OUT FURTHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE
TEENS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS, COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS COULD CREATE BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR
COLORADO COUNTIES.
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. WITH A STRONG JET STREAK
OVERHEAD OF OUR REGION, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDOWN.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATIONS (POPS) ARE ONLY 10-15% CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, SO RAIN IS THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS DOWN THE REGION SLIGHTLY,
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT BREEZY
FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AROUND 22-0Z THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1-4Z AT KGLD AND
VISIBILITIES COULD GET TO AROUND 1 MILE IF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
IMPACT THE AIRPORT. KMCK COULD SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR BETWEEN
6-9Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR BOTH LOCATIONS, BUT
AROUND 6-10Z FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.
AFTER 10Z, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE,
ALTHOUGH KMCK COULD SEE SOME FREEZING FOG OR FLURRIES UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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