578
FXUS63 KGLD 270503
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1003 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY, THANKFULLY MAJOR
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
TODAY LOOKS COMPARATIVELY MILD AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, LEAVING US UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN
THE SNOWPACKED AREA WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING WHILE AREAS
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL WARM CLOSER TO 40. WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WESTERLY, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN, BUT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO -7 TO 0. THERE'S A 20% CHANCE AREAS WITH
REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL COOL AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES, FOR BOTH AIR
TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILLS.
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO PROPOGATE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDAY. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY SOME MILD UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THIS WAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT TOMORROW. IN THE
WESTERN CWA, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S WHILE AREAS IN
THE EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA, WHERE THE SNOWPACK REMAINS, TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE TEENS IN AREAS WITH NO SNOWPACK, BUT WILL COOL TO AROUND 10 IN
THE SNOWY AREA. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AIR TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 0.
WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE FARTHER IN-
LAND, WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT TO
KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY. THERE'S A 40% CHANCE AN
850 MB HIGH FORMS OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
A DECENT AMOUNT, WITH THE NBM SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE AREAS WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE
TO OBERLIN COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, THE NBM
IS LIKELY FAILING TO ACCOUNT FOR REMAINING SNOWPACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE. ANY AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOWPACK WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS WILL BE COMING OVER THE ROCKIES AND LIKELY IMPACTING THE HIGH
PLAINS A BIT. WE CAN AT LEAST EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL LOWER LOCAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TEENS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE EASTERN
COLORADO GETS SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT MOST MODELS SHOW
A DRY LOW-LEVEL LAYER, PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
THURSDAY, OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) IS IN A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AHEAD OF A WEAK RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENT IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS BEGINS A COOLING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE 40S FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE 30S FOR
THE EASTERN HALF. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE THE CWA IS FORECAST TO HAVE
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT ON HIGHER LEVELS
OF SATURATION FOR OUR AREA, WE ARE STILL DRY ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FAIRLY LOW.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 5-25% OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON THE HIGHER END OF POPS. IF
PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT SNOW DUE
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE.
SATURDAY, WE CONTINUE TO COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES DEEPENS REGION WHILE THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST PROPAGATES
TOWARDS OUR AREA. WHEN THE RIDGE IS OVER OUR CWA, IT PLACES US IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK MAXIMUM. THIS INCREASES OUR
POPS FOR THE AREA TO 15-30% DUE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE IS THE BIG QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO IF
WE WILL GET ANY SNOW SATURDAY.
THE JET MAXIMUM QUICKLY EXITS OUR REGION RETURNING US TO MORE MILD
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURN AND TEMPERATURES
WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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