421
FXUS63 KGLD 221050
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
450 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- PATCHES OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
- BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING DUST AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
PATCHY, AND OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE FALLEN TO OR
BELOW 3 F ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VISIBILITIES AROUND 4
MILES CAN BE EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALIZED PATCHES NEAR A QUARTER MILE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z (10
AND 11 AM CT) AS SOLAR HEATING BEGINS TO BECOME DOMINANT.
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AT 500-MB, WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A 60-70 KT JET STREAK WILL BE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER LOW, CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND UTAH. AS SUCH, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, THOUGH ELEVATED CIRRUS MAY
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING A LITTLE BIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED ALONG THE KANSAS HIGHWAY 27 AND U.S.
HIGHWAY 385 CORRIDORS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST AND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIDWEST STRENGTHEN. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO SUSTAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE BASED ON HREF GUIDANCE,
WITH MOST OF THE AREA OVER A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS, WHICH SHOW AROUND
25-30 MPH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL MIXED LAYER, AND COULD
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE BASE
OF THE LARGER LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE JET
STREAK AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IN NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, DEEPENING WITH TIME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ABNORMALLY STRONG THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT A 75% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 15 MPH ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE. ALONGSIDE CLOUD COVER,
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S, WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN FOG OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WILL LIKELY CATCH A
BREAK DUE TO THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH THE HELP OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SEEM
LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO UPPER 80S PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. BLOWING DUST
MAY BE A CONCERN WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. NBM MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
HIGHER (4-6000 FT) ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27, WHILE THEY
ARE LOWER (2-3000 FT) ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. THE HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST WOULD CREATE MORE HAZY, LOW AIR
QUALITY CONDITIONS, AS DUST MIXES THROUGH A HIGHER DEPTH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS ABOUT 10-20% CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITIES DROP TO AROUND 1-
3 MILES IN DUST PLUMES TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BEGIN TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY, AS SHOWN BY LREF STANDARD
DEVIATION GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA
ALONG THE FRONT. SPECIFICALLY, NBM SUGGESTS THAT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83 HAVE A 70% CHANCE OR HIGHER OF RECEIVING
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY. THIS WILL COME WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION. THERE IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE (5%), EXTREME SCENARIO
WHERE GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. EFI (EC EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX) VALUES FOR QPF ARE BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.8, WITH SHIFT OF TAILS
(THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE FORECAST GOES BEYOND THE 2005-2026 OBSERVED
CLIMATE MAXIMUM PERCENTILE) NEAR 1. IF THIS SCENARIO CAN OCCUR, A
FLASH FLOODING RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY EXTEND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
ON SUNDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS STILL
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. DURING
THIS TIME, A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL START
BRINGING IN LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE VORTICITY AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION, THIS COULD LEAD TO LONG LASTING SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (70%) THAT RAIN TOTALS COULD EXCEED A
TENTH (0.10) OF AN INCH OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS EVENT, NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONSISTENTLY COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND THEN COOLING
5 TO 7 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA AND THEN COOL DOWN AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 8 DEGREES
TUESDAY. WITH THIS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
INTRODUCING A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE
THIS MIX IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VONA, COLORADO TO SWANSON
LAKE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME UNCERTAIN AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES NORTH OVER THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH, A RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
WHILE IT IS FAVORED FOR THE RIDGE TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITHIN GUIDANCE THAT COULD EITHER
SPEED UP OR DELAY THE RIDGE. IF THE RIDGE SPEEDS UP, THIS COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND
HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE. IF THE RIDGE SLOWS DOWN, WE THEN
COULD SEE SHOWERS MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS, THE RIDGE WILL LEAD INTO A WARMING
TREND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KMCK IS FORECAST TO SEE THE IFR VISIBILITIES REMAIN, AND LIKELY
WORSEN, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR IN
THE MID-MORNING. BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS START
IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 18-25 KTS RANGE, BUT SOME GUSTS CLOSER TO
30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. KMCK ALSO HAS BEEN SHOWING A DECENT SIGN OF
LLWS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
40 KTS AROUND 300 FEET AGL. IT IS POSSIBLE SURFACE WINDS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH THAT LLWS DOES NOT FORM.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA/DAVIS
LONG TERM...CA/MOELLER
AVIATION...CA
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