478
FXUS63 KGLD 120504
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1004 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- WINDY TOWARDS THE MID AND END PART OF THE WEEK. BLOWING DUST
MAY BE POSSIBLE. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE FIRE
WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 654 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST. NEWEST GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN WARMER FOR TOMORROW SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
THOSE OUT OF THE SNOW PACK AROUND 3-5 DEGREES. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED WIND GUSTS A LITTLE AS WELL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
NEWEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE BREEZIER 850MB LEVEL.
CURRENT FORECAST NOW HAS WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN OMEGA BLOCK, THE CENTER (RIDGE) OF WHICH
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IN THIS
PERIOD. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE SITUATED AT/NEAR AN
INFLECTION POINT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING
WEST CONUS RIDGE AND AN AMPLIFYING EAST CONUS TROUGH.. IN NW TO
N FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY-TONIGHT: A BROAD LEE TROUGH WILL ENVELOPE THE REGION AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS
EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND AND LIGHT (~10-15 MPH) WESTERLY
WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50'S *EXCEPT* IN FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES), WHERE DIURNAL
HEATING/INSOLATION WILL BE ATTENUATED BY SNOW COVER AND HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE 30'S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (MONDAY
MORNING) LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20'S, EXCEPT IN GREELEY/WICHITA
COUNTIES.. WHERE LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL FACILITATE STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS.
MON-MON NIGHT: WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY..
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH A ~10-20 MPH NW BREEZE. LOCALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT (5-10 MPH) WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE
SNOW COVER PERSISTS (I.E. GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES).
TUESDAY: UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
(EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE) WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE NNW (TUE AFT) AND N (TUE NIGHT). IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, A BROAD (ALBEIT INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST
ORIENTED) SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
FOSTERING SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS BROADLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY,
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BREEZIER.. AND WITH INCREASING MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER-MID 60'S AND NW WINDS AT 15-25 MPH, BREEZIEST
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 36) WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
VERTICAL MIXING COULD FACILITATE GUSTS TO ~30-35 MPH.. IF
INSOLATION/MIXING AREN'T SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER (IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS (TUE AFT) WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA (TUE EVE) AND EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (TUE
NIGHT). MEANWHILE, SEPARATE/DISTINCT (AND MORE ROBUST) SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN MANITOBA/ONTARIO WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE DAKOTAS WILL DRIVE AN INVERTED
INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA TUE
EVE (SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, ~00-03Z WED), THE LEADING EDGE OF
WHICH WILL MANIFEST AS A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST IN NATURE, AND THAT.. TURBULENT MIXING ASSOC/W BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL, MORE THAN ANYTHING, HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.. RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS) RANGING FROM THE MID 30'S (NORTH) TO LOWER 40'S (SOUTH)
BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE MID TO END PART OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE WITH
MULTIPLE UPPER TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM THE
NORTH. THE INTERESTING THING WITH GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS THAT IT
MOSTLY AGREES ON THE TIMING, IN SPITE OF THE MULTIPLE WAVES. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY LOOKS TO DEAL WITH POSITIONING (HOW FAR WEST)
THESE TROUGHS ARE AND HOW DEEP THEY BECOME. THIS WOULD MAINLY
LEAD TO CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND INTENSITY. IN SPITE OF
ALL THESE TROUGHS AND SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, THE AIR IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING SHORT OF MAYBE
SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY STARTS WITH THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S WITH STRONG WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH. CURRENTLY THE CHANCE
IS LESS THAN 20% THAT WIND GUSTS WOULD CLIMB ABOVE 58 MPH AND
REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
UNLIKELY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S. THAT
BEING SAID, THE WINDS ALONE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY, THE NEXT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH AND
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. IF THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CAP IN THE 30S AND 40S.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS COULD REACH THE 50S WITH A FEW 60S MIXED IN. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE
FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA WINDS IS LESS THAN 20% AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID,
DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER A BIT.
FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE WORST OF THE DAYS AS THE
AREA REMAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR EAST IT GOES, THE AREA MAY BE UNDER A TIGHTER HEIGHT AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS. CHANCE FOR WINDS
TO HIT HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE HIGHER, AROUND 30-40%. WHILE
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE MUCH COOLER IN THE 30S AND HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
20S. STILL, LIKE THE PRIOR DAYS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE INCREASED
EVEN WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT FORECAST TO BE MET. WHILE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL, FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL WITH FORECAST
LAPSE RATES STEEPER NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT CAPPED A FEW KM UP IN
THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE WEEKEND IS WHERE WE START TO GET MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AS THERE IS A SPLIT ON WHETHER A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN. FOR NOW, NEAR AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, BUT BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY COLDER
AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR LLWS IMPACTING THE MCK TERMINAL SO
HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDING
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE LLWS FOR GLD AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE GLD
VAD WIND PROFILER SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR THE GLD
TERMINAL. WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE WNW MID
MORNING MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN
FORECAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE GLD
TERMINAL CURRENTLY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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