155
FXUS63 KGLD 260946
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
MST TODAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: THE ONGOING COLD SNAP ENDS TODAY AS ~1045 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MODEST SW TO WSW LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW INITIATES A WARMING TREND
IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S, COLDEST IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SW WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY GUST
TO ~25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH.. SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING AND
A NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION (WHERE SNOW COVER IS
PRESENT) MAY IMPEDE/LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL, KEEPING WINDS IN THE
~10-15 MPH RANGE. WSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W THIS
EVENING AND WNW OVERNIGHT, REMAINING LIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, COLDEST IN AREAS
WITH SNOW COVER.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA SITUATED DOWNSTREAM OF A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PACIFIC NW AND
UPSTREAM OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW /TROUGHING/ ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS.. A WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL PERSIST IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NW (TODAY) WILL DIG SE-SSE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUE
MORNING. BROKEN/OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PRECEDING AND
ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO, WILL
ABATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES SE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN
ILL-DEFINED MSLP TO 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY, SUGGESTING THAT WINDS MAY
PREDOMINANTLY BE VARIABLE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
FOLLOW, LATE TUE AFT INTO TUE NIGHT, BETWEEN A BAGGY LEE TROUGH
IN CO AND ~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN KS. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30'S TO MID 40'S, COLDEST IN AREAS
WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER (GRAHAM, SHERIDAN, LOGAN AND GOVE
COUNTIES) AND OVERNIGHT (WED MORNING) LOWS IN THE TEENS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE EVENING INTO TUE NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 283 WHERE SNOW COVER (AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM SNOW-MELT) MAY STILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE HELPS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE,
ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOW 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES.
SHOULD ANY SNOW LINGER FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, THOSE
LOCALES WOULD SEE HIGHS MORE IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
IS FORECAST TO SWING A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE EAST (CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIR MAS) AND 40S TO THE WEST. LOWS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IF THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS WEST AS SOME ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AS A WHOLE, GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND OVERALL PATH OF THE FEATURES WHICH
IS LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. BUT STILL,
THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE THAT ARE
GIVING US A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS. IF THE COLDER
SOLUTION PANS OUT, NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS COULD RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE BETTER
AGREEMENT HAS ALSO LED TO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE AIR SHOULD
SATURATE AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. STILL, WE WILL LIKELY BE
DRY NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LIMITED. WE SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
EVEN FLURRIES DUE TO THE HIGHER LEVEL SATURATION. BUT THE LACK
OF FEATURES WHEN WE ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST SATURATED SUGGESTS
WE WON'T HAVE MUCH LIFT AND JUST HAVE LIGHT SNOW AT BEST. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN GUIDANCE QPF FORECASTS RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.2.
SO UNLESS WE GET MUCH COLDER (HIGHER SLRS) OR CAN GET ONE OF
THE SYSTEMS TO SLOW NEAR THE AREA AND PROVIDE BETTER LIFT, SNOW
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A FEW INCHES AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS THOUGH AS WHILE
THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS AROUND OR BELOW 15 MPH,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD SHOULD MORPH
QUITE A BIT MAY ALLOW FOR A SCENARIO WHERE WE BRIEFLY HAVE A
TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS. BLOWING SNOW MAY THEN BE A
CONCERN.
GOING INTO THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE ARE
FORECAST TO STAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID,
IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT WE MOVE MORE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE'S INFLUENCE AND WOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S, BUT WE COULD SEE 60S IF WE
DON'T GET ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S. FOR NOW, NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. WSW WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT GUSTS UP TO 20-23 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH.. SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING AND A NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION (WHERE SNOW COVER IS PRESENT) MAY IMPEDE/LIMIT GUST
POTENTIAL. WSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE W THIS EVENING
AND WNW OVERNIGHT, REMAINING LIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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