480
FXUS63 KGLD 192016
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
IS OCCURRING, BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
BELOW AN INCH.
- A WINTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
TODAY, AS EXPECTED THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED EAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, LEAVING LIGHT SNOW AND 30-40 KTS NORTHERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT
THE AREA UNTIL 21-0Z, EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN CWA LAST.THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON, WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA MAY WARM TO ABOUT 40S SINCE THEY ARE SEEING
SUNNIER SKIES AND LESS DIRECT CAA.
A MILD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE SKY TO
CLEAR OUT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS CALM AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE WEAK WINDS
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA COULD EASILY SEE WIND CHILLS AROUND -5 FRIDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THE MAJORITY OF THE SETUP TONIGHT SUGGESTS
FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM, INCLUDING REFS SHOWING 50% PROBABILITY OF
LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO
10F, SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR AND INSTEAD SMALL
ICE PARTICULATE IS MORE LIKELY. THIS IS BETTER THAN SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AS THE ICE WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME LATCHING TO SURFACES TO
MAKE THEM SLICK.
TOMORROW, THE HIGH SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMES OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOOKS TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE CWA, LARGELY DUE TO CLOUD COVER MOVING IN DURING THE
MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE MOISTURE FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW, LIKELY STARTING BETWEEN 15-21Z IN THE WESTERN CWA. PEAK TIMING
FOR THE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0-6Z AND WILL BEGIN EXITING THE
CWA AROUND 6Z FROM WEST TO EAST, FULLY EXITING BY 12-15Z SATURDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES BEING SO COLD, P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW. MOST OF THE
AREA CAN EXPECT A TRACE OF SNOW BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 24 HAVING A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW. THERE ARE SIGNS OF LESS THAN 10 MICROBARS OF OMEGA IN THE
THE SATURATED LAYER AROUND 3Z, WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THIS
COULD INDICATE 1+ INCH SNOWFALL/HOUR RATES, BUT WOULD ONLY OCCUR FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AREAS UNDER THIS ENHANCEMENT COULD SEE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE CWA, AND BY SATURDAY A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PUSH OUT ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE AND ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO START REBOUNDING AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S. AS TEMPERATURES WARM, RH VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS, AGAIN. EASTERN COLORADO COULD ALSO SEE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS, LEADING TO SOME LOW END FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RH AND WINDS MAY BRIEFLY HIT CRITICALITY IN EASTERN
COLORADO, BUT THE RECENT LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL HELP MINIMIZE ANY
THREATS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE
HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S. A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL TRAVERSE TOWARDS OUR REGION USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S AND IN THE
70S FOR TUESDAY. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY MILD FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA), BUT OUR COLORADO COUNTIES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST, SO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO WARM AND DRY OUT FURTHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE
TEENS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THIS, COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS COULD CREATE BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR
COLORADO COUNTIES.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
COOLING CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 60S. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES PROPOGATE THROUGH OUR CWA. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 15-30% AT THIS TIME WITH RAIN AS THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS DUE TO THIS BEING THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND CURRENT MODEL VARIANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
OFF AND ON SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 21Z FOR KGLD AND ABOUT
0Z FOR KMCK. UNTIL THEN, CONDITIONS WILL KEEP BOUNCING BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK POSSIBLE.
AFTER SUNSET, THE SKY WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING
FOG/LIGHT FLURRIES AT KMCK BETWEEN 10-14Z TOMORROW MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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