998
FXUS63 KGLD 181945
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2019
REST OF TODAY, EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER. SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TONIGHT, SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO 60S.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS A STRONG SURFACE
TROUGH SETS UP TO OUR WEST. POP CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS
CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED. KEPT THE QPF SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS I FELT IT WAS BEST REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED
AND WPC GREATLY UNDERDID ANY VALUES. EXPECTING THIS TO BE MAINLY
A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE,
AND THEN TRAINING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
WITH THESE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO GENERATING LARGE HAIL UP TO AN INCH AND
STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO
START AROUND PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. STORMS WILL FIRST START OFF WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT
AND THEN TRANSITION TO FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2019
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY! FIRST, THE AREA HAS TO GET THROUGH A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAN THERE AS BEEN AS OF MOST RECENTLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE
TROUGH INTO CANADA ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
A RIDGE MOVES AND BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY AS A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF THE CLOSED LOW IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS. THE
GFS PUSHES THE LOW EAST INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW CYCLING ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. COASTLINE.
LEESIDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE LOW
REDEVELOPS ALONG FRONT RANGE IN EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT
MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE FLOW ONCE
AGAIN SITS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA BEHIND THE LOW.
SURFACE TROUGHING SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN PERIODS OF CONCERN ARE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2019
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE GOODLAND AND MCCOOK TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE NE 10 TO 20 MPH RELAXING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, PICKING BACK UP TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...EV
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