436
FXUS63 KGLD 080905
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-70/HWY 24 THURSDAY
MORNING.
- A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW
IN PLACE, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO WEAK AND KEEPING WINDS AROUND 5-
10 MPH. THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS DRY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AIR
COLUMN, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHORT OF MAYBE A FEW QUICK PATCHES OF FOG FROM
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THE SUNNY SKIES AND LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10
MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA CAN
DEEPEN AT ALL. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT SHORT OF MAYBE
A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IF SOME HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP
WELL WEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S AGAIN.
FRIDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND HELP DEVELOP AND PUSH A SURFACE LOW INTO THE
HIGH/NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 MPH. GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30-35 MPH. THIS DOES POSE A CONCERN FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRYING TO
BRING IN EVEN DRIER SURFACE AIR, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOW 90S. FOR NOW, THE BEST CHANCE IS IN YUMA AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR NOW THOUGH, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DRIES AIR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
COUNTIES UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN IF IT DOES, WINDS MAY
LIGHTEN DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW CENTER MOVES IN. IN SHORT, EXPECT
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE SUNNY SKIES, EVEN WITH THE
ADVANCING LOW AS THE AIR WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY AND THE MAIN UPPER
JET REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY, HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE GULF
REGION/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP JAM UP THE UPSTREAM FLOW,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FORECAST TO AMPLIFY IN
PLACE. FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA, THIS WILL ALSO JAM UP THINGS OVER THE
AREA AND LIKELY LEAD TO VERY SIMILAR CONDITION IN COMPARISON TO
FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S, WINDS
SHOULD PICK FROM THE SOUTH AT 15-20 GUST 30-35 MPH, AND SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL. WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PUSH IN IF THE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS ENOUGH AND PULLS THE UPPER JET CLOSER TO THE AREA.
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS, THOUGH THE LOW MAY INFLUENCE
MORE OF THAT AREA AND CUT THE WINDS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
AREA. WE WOULD THEN HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS OFFSET FROM THE
STRONGER WINDS.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE FORECAST DRY AIR IN PLACE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT BEST, A QUICK SPRINKLE MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST, THE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE FIRST
PLACE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
ON SUNDAY, WE CAN EXPECT SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE
REGION WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH THIS
SETUP WE WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW, A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD
PASS OVER THE AREA WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING IN A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS, IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND THEN
60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
AS IT COULD EITHER SLOW DOWN OR SPEED UP. IF THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS DOWN, WE COULD EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LATER IN THURSDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, IF THE COLD FRONT SPEEDS UP WE
WILL HAVE SHOWERS MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHOWERS HAPPENING ON WEDNESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE FOR SOME QUICK PATCHES OF FOG TO
IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN 11-14Z. VISIBILITY COULD LIKELY
BE BETWEEN 2-6SM IF IT DID FORM. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN 18-00Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/MOELLER
AVIATION...KAK
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