456
FXUS63 KGLD 192052
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH MONDAY.
- THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED STRESS WILL BE HIGHEST ON MONDAY WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING STORM CHANCES RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: THE CORE OF THE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES (TODAY) WILL BROADEN AND
EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MON-TUE.. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DIGS
ESE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS (MON) AND UPPER GREAT LAKES (TUE).
TODAY-MONDAY: PRIMARILY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE, WEAK TO NEUTRAL HORIZONTAL
THERMAL ADVECTION AND THE CONTINUED ABSENCE OF CONVECTION (I.E.
NO OUTFLOW) OVER OR UPSTREAM OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY BE A FUNCTION OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSOLATION AND
GRADUAL (DAY-TO-DAY) AIRMASS MODIFICATION. FOR TODAY AND MONDAY,
EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
(SATURDAY), ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY, CULMINATING IN
HIGHS (AND HEAT INDICES) ~100-105F ON MONDAY. DESPITE WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MECHANICAL MIXING,
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL, NONETHELESS, FOSTER A MODEST DAY-TO-
DAY INCREASE IN MIXED-LAYER DEPTH (I.E. DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING)
AND A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK
HEATING, KEEPING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) AT OR
BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN CO AND EXTREME WESTERN KS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60'S AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN/LOWER ELEVATION PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND
COUNTY WARNING AREA, MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF COLBY, KS. THE
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY REMAINS IN PLACE AS-IS (NO CHANGES).
TUE-TUE NIGHT: AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE.. THE SOUTHERNMOST
EXTENT OF SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF A MODEST MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT..
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA TUE
MORNING, MANIFESTING AS AN ABRUPT NE OR ENE WIND SHIFT AND
MODEST EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY BREEZY (~20-30 MPH) ENE WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM ~92-95F (NORTH) TO
~95-100F (SOUTH). IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR INFLUENCING
HIGHS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSING EFFECTIVE FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, A
PROFOUNDLY SUPPRESSIVE (AND THERMODYNAMICALLY HOSTILE)
ENVIRONMENT BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER, OR ALTOGETHER PRECLUDE, CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS IN MIND, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DISTINCT SHIFT
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE PERSISTENT 500 MB RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
SUPPRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS DRIVEN BY
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY, CARVING OUT A
BROADER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS, THE TRI STATE AREA FALLS UNDER WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL
ESTABLISH A SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN, MAINTAINING STEADY
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA REAMPLIFIES
SOMEWHAT, LEAVING THE HIGH PLAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT.
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS TRANSITION IS REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES DROPPING NOTICEABLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BETWEEN 20-40 AND 40-60 PERCENT,
RESPECTIVELY, FOR EASTERN COMMUNITIES (E.G., HILL CITY AND
MCCOOK) AND FALLS BELOW 40 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE YIELDS A 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD OF
JUST 4-6 DEGREES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, SIGNALING HIGH
MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE POST
FRONTAL COOLING. HIGHS WILL HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A
WIDER 8-12 DEGREE NBM SPREAD RETURNS FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY,
INTRODUCING SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE WESTERN
RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
COMFORTABLE, DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH SOME UPPER
50S POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS AS
THE SURFACE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST, MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ROBUST ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIMITED BY WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO TOP OUT AROUND 20-30 KNOTS AS THE MAIN JET CORE
REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, STORM MOTION VECTORS LOOK ON
THE WEAKER SIDE, AVERAGING 15-20 MPH OR LESS. GIVEN ANOMALOUS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING THE
75TH PERCENTILE THRESHOLD FOR JULY) AND SLOWER STORM CELL
PROPAGATION, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING COULD
OCCUR.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, POPS TAPER OFF INTO THE
15-25 PERCENT RANGE, REVERTING TO A STANDARD DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
CYCLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL RELY
HEAVILY ON SURFACE HEATING AND LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES
(PALMER DIVIDE) TO BREAK ANY POTENTIAL INVERSION. WHILE WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SETUPS LATE IN THE WEEK,
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (INVERTED V SOUNDINGS) MEAN ANY
COLLAPSING MULTICELL CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
MICROBURSTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT (~7-13 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A FEW SPORADIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~8,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, CLEAR SKIES WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KOCHASIC
AVIATION...VINCENT
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