659
FXUS63 KGLD 262054
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
154 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
- LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH EXPECTED. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
- COLDER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SPOTS MANAGING TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, ENTERING NORTHWEST CORNER (YUMA COUNTY) BY
02-03Z AND EXITING SOUTHEAST CORNER (GOVE COUNTY) BY 06-07Z.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH NO RECENT PRECIPITATION AND A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LAG BEHIND THE
FRONT AND PROBABLY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL TOWARDS 12Z WITH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WITH THE COLD
AIR. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. ECMWF SHOWING UP TO 1" POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
BAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH WILL STILL BE OCCURRING AT
THAT TIME, SO MAY SEE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW DEVELOP ONCE IT
STARTS TO ACCUMULATE. FINALLY, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
MUCH COLDER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. COLDEST WIND CHILLS
WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AROUND ZERO. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LESS WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS DO
NOT SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION THIS FAR SOUTH, BUT THESE BACK DOOR
FRONTS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DEVELOP FOG/FREEZING FOG ON THE
LEADING EDGE, SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS AT THIS
POINT PROBABLY NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH THE FRONT OR COLD ENOUGH
IN THE EAST. MODEL SPREAD FOR HILL CITY RANGES FROM 23 TO 43
FOR HIGHS, WITH LOWER PERCENTILES IN THE UPPER TEENS. IT IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE ON THE COLDER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE IN EASTERN AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN AREAS, WITH GOODLAND SHOWING A
27 TO 51 RANGE, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT GETS THAT
FAR WEST. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE, ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON THE IMPACTS OF THE SHALLOW
COLD AIR AND WHERE EXACTLY IT SETS UP. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST WHICH SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A SLOW EROSION
PROCESS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024
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