632
FXUS63 KGLD 240821
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
THE MAIN THREATS.
- SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S. THIS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT DOES SO, THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EAST. AS IT DOES SO, A DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BEHIND IT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY AS THE EXPANDING LOW IS FORECAST TO LOWER
THE WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH AS THE LOW EXPANDS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER IN THE 80S AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME LOWER 90S WITH DRIER AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FIRE
UP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY FIRE UP STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRIBUNE, KS TO TRENTON, NE. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG DUE TO THE
INCREASING DRY AIR. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8.5-9.0 C/KM ARE FORECAST TO BE WHAT FIRES UP THE STORMS
AROUND 2-4PM. THE ISSUE FOR THE STORMS IS THAT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30KTS AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
WOULD HINDER HOW LONG STORMS COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. WITH THIS,
PULSE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. IF A STORM COULD SUSTAIN BY
FINDING A POCKET OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, IT WOULDN'T BE
UNREASONABLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR
IN SIZE. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH BOTH WINDS IN THE AIR COLUMN AND DOWNSHEAR VECTORS
AROUND 20-35 KTS. STILL COULDN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE 60 MPH WITH A
STRONG DOWNDRAFT. THESE STORMS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES FROM HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE FRONT RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S AGAIN.
FOR MEMORIAL DAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE SLIGHT RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD HELP THE AREA HEAT UP A BIT MORE WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S. MEANWHILE, THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN A BIT. WITH THIS, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS
NEARING 15-20 MPH. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THE LOW SITTING JUST WEST OF THE AREA CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE
ZONES OVER/NEAR THE AREA. HOWEVER, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE WILL BE A BIT TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR ANYTHING
ORGANIZED OR SEVERE TO DEVELOP. THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT THIS TIME. THE EVENING HOURS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE WINDS LOWER A TAD TO AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH STORM
ACTIVITY ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LOOKING AT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN, THERE IS A RIDGE THAT IS SET UP
OVER THE AREA AND WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE. STARTING WITH TUESDAY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 80S, ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. AS FOR STORM POTENTIAL
THERE IS ABOUT 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE THAT COULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NBM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THERE BEING
ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN 0.01".
SUSTAINED WINDS DO SHOW A SIGN OF CONCERN FOR TUESDAY, WITH HAVING
HIGH WINDS FOR THE THE COLORADO COUNTIES. THE SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND MAY REACH UP TO 45 MPH. INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH THERE IS SUPPORT FROM THE EFI, SHOWING THE ABNORMAL SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 5-10% THAT WE EXCEED 55 MPH
FOR WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND
THE INCREASE IN SUSTAINED WINDS BEING SO STRONG, IS LIKELY DUE TO A
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS SO ME CONCERNS FOR BLOWING DUST,
HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS VERY LOW (5%). GUIDANCE IS SHOWING,
LAPSE RATES THAT ARE EITHER A TAD BIT TO HIGH FOR THE 2-2.5
C/KM OR THE 0.5-1 C/KM ARE TO LOW. THE OTHER THING TO LOOK AT IS
SOIL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPATION DOES OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND, AS OF RIGHT NOW THE MOISTURE IS ABOVE 50%.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW THIS TROUGH EVOLVES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS
SOME MODELS THAT SUGGEST THE IT WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWER COMPARED
TO THE OTHER SIDE WHERE IT WILL CUT OFF AND MOVE THOUGH QUICKER.
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, COOL DOWN TO MID 70S AND
LOW 80S. THE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 50S. AS FOR WINDS, THEY TRANSITION
TO COME FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35 MPH.
MOVING TO PRECIPITATION AND STORM CHANCES, THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.1" FOR 24 HOURS. AS FOR STORM POTENTIAL,
THERE IS CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WHICH WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH 70S AND LOW
80S. ALONG WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE WIND GUSTS DO
REMAIN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 MPH.
AS FOR PRECIP/STORM CHANCE ARE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS WEDNESDAY
WITH CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR FLOODING DURING THIS THREE DAY PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE COULD BE A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE
PRESENT CAPE FOR EACH DAY STORMS/SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THE PWATS FOR THE STORM ENVIRONMENT
AROUND 0.9" WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE EAST WHERE THEY COULD REACH
1.3". ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW.
IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT THEN FLOODING COULD BE CONCERN.
ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THIS THREE DAY PERIOD FORECAST, AS MENTIONED
BEFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
THAT ULTIMATELY WILL AFFECT THE CWA'S STORM/SHOWERS AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL. AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT, MORE INFORMATION WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE FURTHER.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST DOES DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS DURING THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY, THE HIGHS LOOK TO BE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN 50S. WINDS DO
SHIFT BACK TO COMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND GUSTS REMAIN IN THE
15-25 MPH RANGE. THERE IS THE STANDARD CAPE RANGE AS DAYS PRIOR
SO THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND OR STORMS PRESENT, BUT THIS A WEEK
OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 11-14Z WITH SPEEDS AT 200-300FT AROUND 40-45 KTS. THE
OTHER MAIN CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS BETWEEN 20-01Z.
WHILE LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE, STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL
AROUND AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG/HOLDREN
AVIATION...KAK
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