484
FXUS63 KGLD 180604
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR YUMA,
DUNDY, AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
- HOT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND EVEN MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS UPPER HIGH IS HELPING TO WRAP IN
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA AS THE DAY GOES ALONG WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER FORECAST
TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALSO FEATURED A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS IN TURN HAVE
BEEN BELOW 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 MPH
WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THAT
BEING SAID, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT COULD INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND
15 MPH NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARDS THE
LOW 80S WITH THE UPPER RIDGE'S INFLUENCE EXPANDING, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
YUMA COUNTY, ALONG WITH PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS SUCH, A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. NEIGHBORING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED
FROM THE WATCH, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A FEW SPORADIC
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH TO CREEP INTO THESE COUNTIES.
TONIGHT, CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE THAT MUCH SHORT OF
WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE 30S AND LOW 40S.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE FROM
WEDNESDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MORE AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS WITH GUSTS BELOW
20 MPH. SO WHILE THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM A BIT MORE INTO THE MID 80S, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS.
TOMORROW NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
THAT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN MORE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY. WITH DRY AND AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, IT
WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST. FRIDAY, THERE REMAINS LITTLE CONCERN FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WEAK PRESSURE AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS
FORECAST OVER THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR THE TRI-STATE
BORDER. SATURDAY IS A BIT DIFFERENT AS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BREAK DOWN DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IF THE TROUGH PUSHES IN FAST ENOUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
TIGHTEN AND WINDS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN JUMPING AROUND WITH THE FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TIMING, INCLUDING ENSEMBLES. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
SYSTEM WOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IN
THIS SCENARIO, WINDS WOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AND
SATURDAY WOULD JUST BE A FAIRLY HOT DAY.
AS ALLUDED TO, THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WEEKEND
SYSTEM IS MAKING THE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. IF THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
HOLDS, THE IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE
NOCTURNAL PASSAGE LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND REALLY
LOWERING THE CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR
BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY COULD BE A MULTI-IMPACT DAY. IN
MOST SCENARIOS, SUNDAY WOULD BE COOLER WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 60S
AND BREEZY WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 30-40 MPH.
NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO START OFF A BIT MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS MAY BE SHORT LIVED IF THE NEXT SYSTEM
DELAYS MOVING THROUGH UNTIL CLOSER TO MID-WEEK AND ALLOWS FOR WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY AND SOMEWHAT TRANQUIL UNTIL
THAT NEXT SYSTEM IS ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH. WHETHER IT WOULD BE DRY
AND WINDY OR BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY CLEAR
GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS
CURRENTLY ABOVE 10000FT AND SKIES FORECAST TO CLEAR. WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KTS BETWEEN 18-00Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
SOME DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND EVEN MONTHLY MARCH RECORD HIGHS ARE
IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MARCH 20TH
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 90 IN 1907.... CURRENT FORECAST 86.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 85 IN 1916 AND 1997.... CURRENT FORECAST 86.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 88 IN 1916... CURRENT FORECAST 86.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 87 IN 1907.... CURRENT FORECAST 86.
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RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MARCH 21ST
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 84 IN 1907 AND 2011.... CURRENT FORECAST
91.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 89 IN 1910.... CURRENT FORECAST 93.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 93 IN 1907... CURRENT FORECAST 92.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 84 IN 2011.... CURRENT FORECAST 91.
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MONTHLY (MARCH) RECORD HIGHS:
GOODLAND: 90 DEGREES MARCH 20TH, 1907
MCCOOK: 93 DEGREES MARCH 16TH, 2015
BURLINGTON: 93 DEGREES MARCH 19TH, 1921
HILL CITY: 94 DEGREES MARCH 16TH, 2015
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ252.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM MDT /8
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...TRIGG/KAK
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