566
FXUS63 KGLD 150842
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY (~15-25 MPH) S TO SW WINDS AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY DROP TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOWFALL
MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM CURRENT AND RECENT (00-06Z) RUNS OF
THE HRRR HAVE, THUS FAR (AS OF 08Z), VERIFIED WELL WITH RADAR
AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE GOODLAND
CWA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS ASSOC/W THE
UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TODAY WILL BE (1) ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE, (2) LARGELY CONFINED NORTH OF HWY 36 AND
(3) LARGELY OCCUR PRIOR TO ~18Z. EXPECT RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70'S AND WEAKENING WNW TO W
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT (THU MORNING) LOWS IN THE
MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S. A MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXITS THE REGION / PROGRESSES EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
VALLEY.
THURSDAY: WITH RIDGING ALOFT, EXPECT A WARMING TREND, AND
MODEST (~15-25 MPH) S TO SW WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A MODEST 50-70 KT JET STREAK AT 500-MB ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION. A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO
ALREADY EXIST FROM THE MIDWEST BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE UPPER- LEVEL FEATURES, AND MAY CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
IS FAVORED. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN TRAVERSING THE
FORECAST REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
ISSUES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MID TO UPPER-TEEN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40
MPH RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE MITIGATED WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, OR ENHANCED BY A SLOWER
PROGRESSION. LREF GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE IN WIND DIRECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING, HIGHLIGHTING ISSUES
REGARDING THE FRONT'S TIMING. AROUND 60% OF GEFS AND EC MEMBERS
SHOW A SCENARIO WHERE THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FASTER, AND
THUS, WOULD MITIGATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK. LREF
GUIDANCE WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION, SUGGESTING AT BEST
A 1 IN 3 CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND LESS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON SITS AT AROUND 5%.
FRIDAY EVENING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FREEZE OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, IN ADDITION TO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL. LOWS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOWER-20S TO LOWER-30S FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AS HIGH AS A 60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 40% CHANCE
ACROSS THIS ZONE THAT THE SNOWFALL IS MEASURABLE (>0.1 INCHES).
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED, AS NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER
25 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT. COOLER CONDITIONS COULD LAST INTO
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER-60S.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS, AND WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 60-80%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS ZONE, WITH LREF GUIDANCE GIVING RH
VALUES A 50-70% CHANCE. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED ACROSS THIS ZONE IS ONLY ABOUT 5% DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE COLD FRONT FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT MORE ELEVATED.
WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LOT MORE DIVERGENT PAST
SUNDAY MORNING, GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS RIDGING IS FAVORED ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
WARM AND DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY, AND 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RH VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ON THE LOWER END,
WITH UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS TO LOWER-TEENS ON SUNDAY, AND LOW TO
MID-TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BE EXPERIENCED ALL THREE DAYS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE DECREASES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A SLOW- MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY'S RISK SEEMS HIGHEST,
AS LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 3 IN 4 CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET
CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH NBM GUIDANCE YIELDING
OVER 50% PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITERIA.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED SUNDAY IS AROUND
10%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
GLD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS
(3,000-4,000 FT AGL) DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY ~14-18Z, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
NW WINDS ~15-20 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING.. WITH WINDS BACKING
TO THE WNW AND DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER BACK TO THE W OR WSW AND DECREASE
TO 5-10 KNOTS AROUND SUNSET.
MCK: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS
(3,000-4,000 FT AGL) DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY ~14-18Z, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NNW TO
NW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE WNW OR W AND DECREASE
TO 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AROUND SUNSET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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