821
FXUS63 KGLD 212339
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY, WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
SEEING A NARROW AREA OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE KS AND CO
BORDER WITH GUSTS HITTING 45 MPH AT GOODLAND AND ST. FRANCIS.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2 HOURS BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECOUPLE AS THE SUN SETS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. WITHIN THE FLOW WERE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG WITH
CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING DUST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
(30%) THAT THE WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH BLOWING DUST.
TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH, TURNING THE SOUTH
WINDS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION,
CAUSING LOWS TO BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
MONDAY THE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE INTO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE.
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE A
STRONG POSSIBILITY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO LESS THAN 20%. HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
TOO WEAK TO BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT EAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PUSHED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AS TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE TRACK THE INCOMING CLOSED LOW OVER THE
WEST COAST TAKES. SOME MODELS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST AND
WEAKENING, WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING, THEN SHIFTING EAST AND EVENTUALLY WEAKENING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST MODELS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW GOING EAST
AND WEAKENING. AT THIS TIME THE DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED LOW IS MAINLY IMPACTING THE TIMING OF ONE OR TWO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER CHRISTMAS (20%). AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAPPEN GIVEN HOW
COMPLICATED THE WEATHER PATTERN IS AT THIS TIME RANGE, AND THAT
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN 4-6 DAYS FROM NOW.
AS THE PRIOR SHIFT MENTIONED, CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOKING
BACK OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO, WHEN HIGHS WERE UNSEASONABLY WARM THE
FORECAST AREA HAD NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS IS THE SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HIGHS WILL END UP
BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE DATA. WITH THIS IN MIND,
HIGHS COULD BE FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING. IF
THAT FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY, IT COULD JEOPARDIZE
RECORD HIGHS IF IT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THAT IS BASED ON QUITE A FEW "IFS", BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE
OF.
ALSO NOTICED THAT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD
VALUES FOR THE WARMEST LOWS. THE WARMEST LOW ON RECORD FOR THE
FORECAST AREA ON THIS DAY IS 51 DEGREES IN SHARON SPRINGS SET IN
1955. MOST OTHER RECORDS ARE 25-35 DEGREES. THIS IS TRICKY
BECAUSE THE LOW COULD HAPPEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO LESS THAN 20
PERCENT FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, LIKE
MONDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT BE A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 429 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MCK AND RELAXING TO AROUND 10KTS AT GLD.
LLWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR, THREAT IS HIGHEST AT
KMCK WHERE WINDS WERE DECOUPLED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN IN JEOPARDY MONDAY THE 22ND
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 74.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 67.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 69 IN 2019... CURRENT FORECAST 66.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 71 IN 2019.... CURRENT FORECAST 74.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THE 24TH
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 77 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 74 IN 1964.... CURRENT FORECAST 65.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 2021... CURRENT FORECAST 67.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 79 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 74 IN 1950.... CURRENT FORECAST 70.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 70 IN 1929.... CURRENT FORECAST 68.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 76 IN 1950... CURRENT FORECAST 70.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 1929.... CURRENT FORECAST 70.
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS EVE
GOODLAND: RECORD OF 32 IN 1940.
MCCOOK: RECORD OF 33 IN 2024.
HILL CITY: RECORD OF 34 IN 1940.
BURLINGTON: RECORD OF 37 IN 1971.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page