353
FXUS63 KGLD 180518
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40) THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED SOUTH OF THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
- BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S ON SAT-SUN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS.. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
FRACTURED, WEST-EAST ELONGATED UPPER WAVE EXTENDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN WY TO WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WESTERN-MOST PORTION OF THIS FRACTURED WAVE -- SITUATED OVER
SOUTHWEST WY AT 18 UTC (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS 400-250 MB POT
VORT) -- WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST CO (THIS
AFTERNOON), ESE-SE THROUGH CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST CO (TONIGHT) THEN
EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER (THURSDAY). AN ILL-DEFINED,
'POST-CONVECTIVE' LOW-LEVEL (MSLP TO 850 MB HEIGHT) PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
AND STRATUS HAS ALTERED THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.. LIMITING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO ~250-750 J/KG MLCAPE
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK (OR ALTOGETHER ABSENT) LOW-LEVEL
FORCING.. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE GOODLAND CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE A FUNCTION OF UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CO /I-25 CORRIDOR/. CURRENT AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS LINE
OF REASONING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL, MORE LIKELY THAN
NOT, BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFT AND EARLY THIS EVE (~00-04 UTC, 6-10 PM
MDT). RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS. GIVEN
THAT RIGHT-MOVER MOTION IS FROM THE WNW-NW (~295-325 DEG) AT
15-25 KNOTS.. ANY CYCLONIC UPDRAFT(S) WOULD LIKELY REMAIN S AND
SW OF THE GOODLAND CWA. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE
DIGGING ESE-SE THROUGH CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST CO LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT MAY WELL FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM-OF
AND/OR DIRECTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA IN THE ~04-12
UTC TIME FRAME.. MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 (IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE). PRECIP CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST-
EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE (AFTER SUNRISE THU).. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
FRI-SAT: EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND.. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUPPLANTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION.
SUN-TUE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, ONE WOULD EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
A THUNDERSTORM NEAR KGLD WILL PRODUCE SOME VICINITY LIGHTNING
STRIKES FOR THE NEXT HOUR, THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
AFTERWARDS, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
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