245
FXUS63 KGLD 201734
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN TWO PIECES. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN COLORADO AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA. SECOND
WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT SINCE WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATES AFTER 00Z. THERE IS
SOME CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE IN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS, WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME
BRIEF ENHANCEMENT THERE, BUT PROBABLY JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL, WITH
ONLY 1-2" OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AND LITTLE WIND. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FREEZING FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
SNOW IS ENDING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OF
A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH (60KTS),
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AT THE SURFACE, STRONGEST IN COLORADO
IN THE MORNING, BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 40S, AND
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.. AND THAT A TRANSITION TO A SPEEDY/ENERGETIC
ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW PATTERN WILL FOLLOW, BY MID-WEEK. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S
(MON), LOWER 70'S (TUE) AND 60'S (WED-THU). LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN THE WAKE OF A
MODEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MID-WEEK. RECENT (00Z 02/20)
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON WED (AS LATE
AS WED AFT-EVE), ~6-12 HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S (00Z 02/19)
GUIDANCE.
FIRE WEATHER (TUE): UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (70'S) AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUE, HOWEVER.. THE TIMING OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN DELAYED TO SUCH
AN EXTENT, THAT.. WEAK WINDS MAY BE A LIMITING/MITIGATING
FACTOR. EVEN IF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK, DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT ASSOC/W DEEP VERTICAL MIXING COULD POTENTIALLY
FACILITATE BREEZY WINDS (AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER) DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
AROUND 22-0Z THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1-4Z AT KGLD AND
VISIBILITIES COULD GET TO AROUND 1 MILE IF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES
IMPACT THE AIRPORT. KMCK COULD SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR BETWEEN
6-9Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR BOTH LOCATIONS, BUT
AROUND 6-10Z FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.
AFTER 10Z, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE,
ALTHOUGH KMCK COULD SEE SOME FREEZING FOG OR FLURRIES UNTIL
ABOUT 16Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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