334
FXUS63 KGLD 241713
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. A
WHITE CHRISTMAS IS UNLIKELY.
- COOLING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING/MODERATING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 20% CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 127 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
THIS MORNING, NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG. HOWEVER, THIS FOG IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST, AND OUT
OF THE COUNTIES. IF IT DOES MOVE IN, DENSE FREEZING FOG WOULD BE
LIKELY.
TODAY, A DISORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA. PRETTY WEAK WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS ELEVATED DRY AIR MOVES IN AND
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY THE FAR EASTERN CWA
POTENTIALLY STAYING IN THE 60S. REFS IS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF 75 DEGREE SOUTHWEST OF WRAY, CO TO
OAKLEY, KS AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SEIBERT, CO TO TRIBUNE, KS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 80
DEGREES. THIS WILL PUT US WITHIN RANGE OF SETTING MORE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE RECORD TEMPERATURES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING SO WARM AND NO MOISTURE INFLOW
EXPECTED, RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR PART OF THE AREA.
THE DRIEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF KS 27, WHERE RH
VALUES LOOK TO DRY INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW
MOVING OVER THE CWA, WEAK WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ADVECTION
FROM OCCURRING. THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, UNLESS FOG OR
LOW STRATUS FORMS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S, NEARING SATURATION EAST OF U.S. 83.
THIS WOULD BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG FORMATION, AND IS ALSO
THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. AS IT
STANDS, THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG IN THE THE FAR
EASTERN CWA CHRISTMAS MORNING. OVERALL, CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT WILL BE
A GREAT NIGHT FOR FLYING, SO SANTA SHOULDN'T HAVE ANY ISSUES MAKING
HIS ROUNDS!
DON'T EXPECT A WHITE, SNOWY CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR AS RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND IT'LL BE CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS IN JULY.
THE LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY START MOVING EAST DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SOME EASTERLY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO MIMIC WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS, WITHIN A FEW DEGREES. REFS TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES OF AT
LEAST 75 DEGREES. WHAT IS A BIT DIFFERENT IS SOME MORE MOIST AIR
LOOKS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND MIX DOWN
FROM THE MID-LEVELS WHILE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. WITH
THIS, RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 20S. WINDS
ARE A BIT FUNKIER AND ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LOW IS. THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA, WHERE THE LINGERING 850 MB TROUGH IS, WINDS WILL
BE WEAK AND VARIABLE. IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA, WHERE THE LOW WILL
HAVE EXITED, WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED. GUIDANCE IS STAYING THE COURSE
AND SHOWING THE LOW REMAINING ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY COURSE, KEEPING
THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CWA. THERE IS STILL A 10% CHANCE IT
TAKES A NORTHERLY COURSE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTS UP AROUND 30-35
KTS.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT, A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S,
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, EITHER A RIDGE OR A WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE CWA IN THE MORNING BEFORE A TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PROVIDES ANOTHER CHANCE AT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT THIS
TIME THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CWA. CURRENTLY,
NBM IS SHOWING HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA REMAINING IN THE MID 60S.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A 15% CHANCE THAT THE TROUGH AND RIDGE CREATE A
25-30 KTS 850 MB LLJ, IN WHICH CASE 25-30 KTS GUSTS COULD MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH LOOKS TO FULLY PUSH INTO THE CWA WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING AS THE COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING
WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA MAY REMAIN AROUND 40.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IF TROUGHING CAN REMAIN
DEEP ENOUGH AND WINDS CAN REMAIN WESTERLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
TEMPERATURE COME UP A FEW DEGREES IF THAT SIGNAL DOES CONTINUE.
THE MAIN FOCUS CURRENTLY FOR THE EXTENDED IS WITH A MODEST COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANYTIME FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO SUNDAY
MORNING. GEFS STILL CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER WITH THE FRONT WITH THE
SATURDAY EVENING TIMING AND THE ECMWF-AIFS AND ECMWF MOVES IT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE THAT IS SEEN WITH THE FRONT
IS THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GFS AND ECMWF CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS BOTH SHOW A
MORE MOIST AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES. WEAK OMEGA IS SEEN IN
THE MID LEVELS AND DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF THE GFS FROM THE
EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND ADDITIONAL OMEGA IS SEEN NEAR THE
SURFACE FROM EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERALL LITTLE TO
RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT INTERESTINGLY
ENOUGH THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME SURFACE CAPE IN SOUNDINGS WHICH
MAY SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED DUSTING TO PERHAPS LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. GFS ALSO DOES SHOW SOME SEEDER FEEDER POTENTIAL AS
WELL. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND TOWARDS
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD. THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL HAZARD
ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET PRECIPITATION IS WITH FLASH FREEZE
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
MINUS 7C. CURRENT GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S SO WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. THE CURRENT FAVORED AREA FOR RAIN/SNOW IS ACROSS YUMA,
KIT CARSON, DUNDY AND CHEYENNE (KS) COUNTIES BUT IS COMPLETELY
PLAUSIBLE IT CAN SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY SUNDAY HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT INTO
THE MID 30S FOR HIGHS.
THE COOL DOWN DOES LOOK TO BE SHORT LIVED AS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
RETURN TO THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA LEADS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
FOR KGLD; HOWEVER VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KMCK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 142 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH MONTHLY
(DECEMBER)RECORD HIGHS. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE ~40F.
================================
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24
================================
BURLINGTON.........79 IN 1955 CURRENT FORECAST....76
GOODLAND...........77 IN 1955 CURRENT FORECAST....75
MCCOOK.............74 IN 1964 CURRENT FORECAST.... 69
HILL CITY..........67 IN 2021 CURRENT FORECAST.... 68
================================
RECORD WARMEST LOWS DECEMBER 24
================================
BURLINGTON.........37 IN 1971
GOODLAND...........32 IN 1940
MCCOOK.............33 IN 2024
HILL CITY..........34 IN 1940
================================
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 25
================================
BURLINGTON.........67 IN 1929 CURRENT FORECAST....73
GOODLAND...........74 IN 1950 CURRENT FORECAST....73
MCCOOK.............70 IN 1929 CURRENT FORECAST....61
HILL CITY..........76 IN 1950 CURRENT FORECAST....62
================================
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 26
================================
BURLINGTON.........77 IN 1980 CURRENT FORECAST....67
GOODLAND...........69 IN 2005 CURRENT FORECAST....69
MCCOOK.............68 IN 2008 CURRENT FORECAST....67
HILL CITY..........73 IN 2021 CURRENT FORECAST....69
================================
MONTHLY (DECEMBER) RECORD HIGHS
================================
BURLINGTON.........81 IN 1939
GOODLAND...........83 IN 1964
MCCOOK.............81 IN 1964
HILL CITY..........83 IN 1964
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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