869
FXUS63 KGLD 121913
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY WINDS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
- SIGNAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
NO BIG CHANGES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING IN CONTROL AND NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH IN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE SOUTHEAST WINDS, BREEZY AT TIMES, AND MAINTAIN DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS WELL ABOVE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE
HIGH DEW POINTS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AS MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THURSDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, PUSHING THE JET INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LARGELY CALMER WEATHER, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE HOT AND
POTENTIALLY HUMID. THIS PATTERN LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND, A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO FORM OVER
TEXAS AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY 850 MB
FEATURES. AS IT STANDS, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. COUPLED WITH A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT, WE COULD
SEE STORMS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT, THE
FLOW LOOKS TO BE FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD DRY OUT THE CWA A
LITTLE BIT. EVEN THOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAYS
FOR CONVECTION, EACH DAY HAS A CHANCE AT WEAK CONVECTION FROM
CONVECTIVE-T DRIVEN STORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG-TERM ARE PRETTY PERSISTENT. HIGHS LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 90S, POTENTIALLY NEARING 100 IN THE SOUTHER CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW
TO MID 70S IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DRY US OUT A BIT
MORE IN THE LATE WEEKEND, THERE IS STILL ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS IT STANDS, RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20%. HOWEVER, DAILY GUSTS IN THE 20-35 KTS RANGE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN, ALLOWING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS WOULD HAVE A MODERATELY HIGH POTENTIAL OF
CREATING DRY LIGHTNING, ADDING ANOTHER RISK TO FIRE CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, MVFR AT
KGLD BUT JUST ABOVE THAT AND VFR AT KMCK, AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR SHOULD BE PREVAILING AT BOTH LOCATIONS
BY 00Z. OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page