489   
FXUS63 KGLD 222023  
AFDGLD  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
223 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST  
  OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH TOMORROW.   
  
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON  
  AND TONIGHT IN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF KANSAS AND   
  NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
  
- VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
  HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
  
  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025  
  
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG THE NW KS AND NE CO BORDER, SKIES  
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN  
NORTHEASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY AFTER 3 PM, AND THEN MOVE  
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE REST OF NORTHEAST CO AND NORTHWEST  
KS. MONITORING AN AREA NORTHWEST OF ST FRANCIS, BUT BELIEVE THE  
MAIN AREA WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA TO START AND THEN MOVE INTO  
THE CWA AFTER 4-5PM. HOT AND HUMID WX WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.  
CURRENT FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD, BUT DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO  
DELAY POPS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA, OTHERWISE CURRENT  
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025  
  
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL KICK OFF WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ALONG  
THE ROCKIES AND JUST TO THE EAST IN EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON.  
THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THIS EVENING. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED  
V LOOK, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE A DAMAGING  
WIND POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS,  
STORMS MAY BE STATIONARY FOR A TIME, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO  
FORECAST STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SPC'S  
MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN KS AND NE  
CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR NORTHWESTERN KS AND EAST  
CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHWEST NE. THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO HIGHEST POPS WILL  
BE IN THE WEST AND LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.   
  
WEDNESDAY FORECAST WILL BE DIFFERENT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS  
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN   
THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS   
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LAST AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THE EVENING HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE  
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWS AND DEWPOINTS, THESE STORMS COULD BE  
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING  
POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS. LIKE TUE EVENING,  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. SPC CURRENTLY DOES NOT  
HAVE OUR AREA IN AN OUTLOOK TOMORROW, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED  
IF THAT CHANGES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NEW DAY 1 OUTLOOK.   
  
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.  
TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE  
AREA, BUT DEFINITELY LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE COLD  
FRONT SHOULD BRING IN DRIER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY, BUT THAT WILL  
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING.   
  
  
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025  
  
STORMS WILL LINGER AGAIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO  
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE  
PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SHOT OF STORMS WILL OCCUR THUR  
AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA  
FOR FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE THE TRI-STATE AREA, BUT ALSO  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY, HIGHS IN  
THE 90S AND 100S ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO OVER 100 FOR MOST  
OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025  
  
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS  
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL; HOWEVER,  
HIGHER PROBABILITY WILL BE AT KGLD AND NOT AT KMCK. BRIEF GUSTY  
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY   
AND SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS THIS   
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING THIS EVENING.  
  
  
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
UPDATE...AUTEN  
SHORT TERM...AUTEN  
LONG TERM...AUTEN  
AVIATION...AUTEN  
 
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