844
FXUS63 KGLD 051836
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- BETTER STORM AND SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TODAY IS THE FIRST FULL DAY OF OUR NEW PATTERN. WE HAVE A 500 MB
HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING A RIDGE TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW
IS SITTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC GIVING US OUR
FIRST OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN OF JULY! THIS PATTERN GENERALLY LEADS
TO WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR. THESE STORMS WOULD GENERALLY
BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT CAN LEAD TO STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
LIGHTNING, MAKING THEM AN ISSUE FOR FIRE WEATHER. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY, A SHORT-LIVED OMEGA BLOCK, WHEN A
LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FLATTENS US BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW, AT THE 500 MB LEVEL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES STAYING WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE AIR TEMPERATURE. LOWS LOOK TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE PERIOD FROM THE 60S TO MID 70S. THIS IS DUE TO A 850 MB RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE MID AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE
OMEGA PATTERN EXISTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL AND SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, PROVIDING A SLOW, BUT
STEADY, INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM BEING SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA, WHICH WOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES AN ADDITIONAL 5-10
DEGREES FROM DOWN-SLOPING.
AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS BRIEFLY IN
EASTERN COLORADO EACH DAY. HOWEVER, EACH DAY WE ARE EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE GUSTY, LIKELY SEEING GUSTS UP AROUND
30-35 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, WINDS WILL LARGELY BE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN.
REGARDING CONVECTION, THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK 700 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE
NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE LOOKS TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO FIRE.
AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS, THEY LOOK TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA AND THEN DECAY, NOT EXITING COLORADO. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS CONVECTION. MONDAY'S CONVECTION
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY SIMILAR WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
BEING IT MAY NOT ENTER THE CWA.
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER
THE CWA, AN 850 MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO OUR
NEXT DECENT CHANCE AT STORMS. THESE WOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WINDS IN THE 40-60 KTS RANGE, AND
HAIL UP AROUND 0.5-1.5 INCHES. THE WIND MAY LEAD TO BLOWING DUST,
CREATING REDUCED VISIBILITY. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THESE
HAZARDS GOING FORWARD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EARLY TO MID PARTS OF
THE WORK WEEK, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES. THERE IS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THOUGH ON EACH DAY. CURRENTLY POPS ARE 20-40% FOR WEST OF KS HWY
27 FOR THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A
DRYLINE/BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE CO/KS BORDER ON TUESDAY AND
THIS COULD BE THE LIFTING FACTOR NEEDED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A 30-50% RANGE FOR POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). SOME GUIDANCE LIKE THE GFS
DOES SHOW A BOUNDARY/FRONT DEVELOPING OUT OF COLORADO AND MOVING
EAST AND THIS COULD BE THE LIFT FACTOR THAT COULD LEAD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CAPE EACH DAY 1000-1600 J/KG LOOKS TO PRESENT.
BULK WIND SHEAR IS IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE. GIVEN THESE VALUES
THERE COULD BE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
AREAS EAST OF KS HWY 27 AND CHEYENNE COUNTY, CO. THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IS AROUND 5-10% FOR FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS
DISAGREEING WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY'S
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 100 FROM THE LREF IS 10-15% WHERE AS THE
NBM'S IS AROUND 20-35%. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS A BIT MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 105. THE NBM HAS IT
AT 5-10% AND THE LREF HAS AROUND 5%. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TWO DAY STRETCH. GUSTS
LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 30 MPH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS AS THERE IS AROUND A 10% EACH DAY FOR A
SHOWER TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KGLD AND
KMCK. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. KGLD IS LIKELY
TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW
LATE MORNING. KMCK MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS, BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE TOO OCCASIONAL TO ADD A FROM GROUP FOR.
**KGLD VISIBILITY: PARTS ARE ON ORDER, THERE IS NO ESTIMATED
RETURN TO SERVICE AT THIS TIME. UNTIL THEN, AMENDMENTS FOR
VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED FOR KGLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
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