207
FXUS63 KGLD 271046
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 30-45 MPH COULD LEAD TO HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
- WARMING BACK UP TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE NEXT WEEK.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE SEEN SHOWERS AND COLD AIR MOVE INTO THE
AREA. WHILE THE SHOWERS AREN'T DOING TOO MUCH WITH THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET, A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE SOME DROPS OR MAYBE EVEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY ALSO MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE AS WE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
COOL INTO THE 30S AND TOWARDS FREEZING.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVING
THEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WHILE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
EAST/SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVER THE AREA. AS SUCH, TODAY IS
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE WINDS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON FROM WEST TO EAST. SPEED
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 15-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-
50 MPH. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN BECOME, A FEW
60 MPH GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND FREEZING, BUT MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DEPENDING ON HOW MIXED THE AREA IS BY THE
WINDS.
SATURDAY, THE STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE, ALBEIT
POTENTIALLY A BIT SLOWER AS THE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXPAND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO RE-ESTABLISH AND THE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND BREEZY WINDS WOULD LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND IS WHY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED. THERE ARE TWO UNCERTAINTIES THAT LED TO A WATCH
INSTEAD OF A WARNING. THE FIRST IS HOW FAST/FAR EAST THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THAT THE LOW EXPAND OVER THESE
AREAS AND WEAKENS THE WINDS. THIS WOULD OCCUR BEFORE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD DROP INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND END THE THREAT. AS FOR THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE
AREAS IS THE HUMIDITY. WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS CLOSEST TO THESE
AREAS, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM UP ENOUGH FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
DROP BELOW 20%. THIS WOULD PREVENT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, THOUGH INCREASED FIRE DANGER WOULD REMAIN WITH THE
BREEZY WINDS.
SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE OVER THE AREA AND THE PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO,
WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT TO 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN EASTERN COLORADO AS
SOME 700-500MB MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA, BUT THE VERY DRY LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF IT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO 40.
SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BROADEN ACROSS MORE OF THE
PLAINS AND PUT THE AREA IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OR A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE,
WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. THIS
RIGHT NOW IS KEEPING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THREAT LOW
IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN EASTERN
COLORADO IF A SMALL EMBEDDED WAVE CAN SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE FLOW
AROUND 700MB AND ALLOW FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WILL SEE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA, BUT QPF
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS MINIMAL.
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN ON
MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
(HIGHEST IN COLORADO) AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 10-20%
(LOWEST IN COLORADO). INSTABILITY REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION. FOR TUESDAY, MODELS ARE TRENDING
FASTER WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
NIGHT, RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT BREEZY/WINDY DAY. EVEN WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
TO BE 15-20%. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES, WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT
THE AREA MAY BE DRY SLOTTED AND THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS EAST.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IF PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 5%. NOT
EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGHER PERCENTILE
GUSTS ARE AROUND 55 MPH IN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HUMIDITY OF 20-25%. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL START WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS ON MONDAY (MID TO UPPER 80S), COOLING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON TUESDAY (70S) BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
A FRONTAL PASSAGE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY (UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY (60S).
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN
COOLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE REMAIN FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AS WE NEAR 18Z. THEY SHOULD THEN
REMAIN AROUND THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
WITH SPEEDS AT 200-400FT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40-50 KTS. THAT
BEING SAID, SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AFTER 03Z WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
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