947
FXUS63 KGLD 232355
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. 1
INCH HAIL AND 65 MPH WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE THAT A SUPERCELL MAY FORM AND PRODUCE HAIL AROUND 2
INCHES AND/OR A WIND GUST UP TO 75 MPH.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY, WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THRU TUESDAY, THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS IS
GENERALLY GOING TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
ONLY CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP SUPPLY
SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, THEN
SLOWLY PUSH A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS IS LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS FOR TODAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHTER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND 10-15 MPH AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
BROADEN OUT A BIT. FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
90S EACH DAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE TOMORROW WHEN THE UPPER
RIDGE IS MOST AMPLIFIED OVER THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S, WITH MAYBE A FEW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
IN REGARDS TO STORMS, THE OVERALL PROGRESSION AND TIMING WILL BE
SIMILAR THROUGH TUESDAY. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE
STORMS WOULD THEN LIKELY ENTER THE AREA AROUND 5-8PM MT AND TRY AND
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN PEAK IN STORM INTENSITY WOULD
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5-10PM MT, WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORM ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT EACH DAY, BUT WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY
END BY 1-4AM CT.
THE STORMS THIS EVENING ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WITH
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CAPPED, HAS EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS,
AND 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ACTIVITY, MOST STORMS
WILL LIKELY PULSE UP AND DOWN WITH NOT MUCH TO SHOW FOR IT. STILL,
THEY MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND
60 MPH. THERE IS, ABOUT A 15% CHANCE THAT SUPERCELL IS ABLE TO FORM,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ENVIRONMENT MODIFIES TO HAVE THE HIGHER END OF THE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES. IN THIS CASE, BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL
POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 2 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 70-80
MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO LARGELY BE CONFINED TO COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, WITH INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR TO THE EAST
AND THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH LIFTING MORE TO THE NORTH AND
WEAKENING ITS INFLUENCE IN THE AREA AS THE EVENING GOES ON.
TOMORROW, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 20-30 KTS WHILE THE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY. THE LESSER INSTABILITY IS FROM THE FORECAST CALLING FOR
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
IF THIS HAPPENS ALONG THE WITH UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE STORMS WOULD PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE AREA A FEW
HOURS LATER (LIKELY CLOSER TO 7-9PM MT). THEY WOULD ALSO BE LESS
LIKELY TO BE SEVERE, THOUGH ONE OR TWO COULD STILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND MAYBE SOME HAIL CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SIZE.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS WOULD BE IF A CLUSTER DEVELOPS IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY, DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RECOVER WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN
THE 60S. WITH INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO 3000 J/KG, 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS,AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, TUESDAY MAY HAVE THE MOST SUPPORT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. THE MAIN QUESTION SEEMS TO BE HOW QUICKLY
STORMS CLUSTER AND DO THEY FORM IN THE AREA. IF THE STORMS FORM IN
THE AREA AND/OR STAY ISOLATED, THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL ABOVE 2
INCHES INCREASES. OTHERWISE, THE THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH
WOULD BE GREATER. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
EITHER WAY, BUT IT WILL BE HARD FOR EITHER HAZARD TO REACH ITS FULL
POTENTIAL WITHOUT STORMS BEING IN A CERTAIN MODE. ANOTHER SNEAKY
HAZARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT
ISN'T VERY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES, SUPERCELLS MAY BE ABLE TO
BRIEFLY PRODUCE ONE. THE BIGGER TORNADO CONCERN IS IF A LINE FORMS
LIKE SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS FORECAST TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 15-25 MPH, A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
THERE IS A FOIL FOR THIS IN THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN CLUSTERS AND LINES MAY CAUSE THEM TO BECOME DISORGANIZED AND
FALL APART. WITH THIS, CURRENTLY KEEPING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES ON
THE LOWER SIDE, WITH THE GREATER CONCERN AND EMPHASIS ON WIND AND
HAIL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MAINLY REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, KEEPING US IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY, AND BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY COME FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 90S.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE "COOLEST" DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE LOW 100S. IF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, THEN
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM TO BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY HOLD THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL, WITH POPS IN THE 20-50%
RANGE, AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
VARIABILITY IN CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LESS
ORGANIZED STORMS AND REDUCED SEVERE CHANCES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THEN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF TO 5-25% FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO SURFACE LOWS, ONE IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, AND ANOTHER IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, WHICH ARE
CREATING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE MOVING EAST.
THIS MAY BECOME A CONCERN FOR KGLD BY AROUND 03Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SAY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE AIRPORT
AS CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY THE TIME
THEY REACH THE KS-CO BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMCK. IN ADDITION, FOR KGLD, WINDS ARE PRIMARILY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS, BUT GRADUALLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...DAVIS
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