362
FXUS63 KGLD 240609
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
- A WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-90%) CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, LIKELY RESULTING
IN NEAR 0.5-2.0 INCHES OF RAIN.
- THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) INCLUDES A MARGINAL AND
SIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1/4 AND 2/4) OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MARGINAL
RISKS CONTINUING TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST,
OR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRING THE FIRST ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND ROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER
THE REGION, ALL OF WHICH ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 591-594 DAM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
IN REGARDS TO THE ONGOING BREEZY CONDITIONS, AS THE SHORTWAVE
EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOOSEN, STEADILY WEAKENING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT DOWN TO NEAR 10-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH BY TOMORROW
MORNING AND FURTHER REDUCING TO LIGHT AND/OR VARIABLE TOMORROW
NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, DESPITE SOME SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
DISCREPANCIES, THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR TWO MAIN ROUNDS
OF NEAR-WIDESPREAD MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-90% +) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN: AN
INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THE MORE SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HIGHER-
END RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ALONG-SOUTH I-70 AND ALONG/EAST
US-83, WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL 1.0-2.0 INCHES BY
FRIDAY MORNING WHILE AREAS FURTHER WEST CAN EXPECT 0.3-1.0 INCH,
LOWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BORDERING COLORADO
COUNTIES. SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR WHERE
CONVECTION TRAINS; THE HREF SUGGESTS A 20-50% PROBABILITY OF
TOTALS EXCEEDING THESE AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS AND THE NBM
SUGGESTS EVEN HIGHER PROBABILITIES. FOLLOWING, CHANCES OF RAIN
BRIEFLY MINIMIZE FRIDAY MORNING BUT THEN INCREASE THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WIDESPREAD CHANCES AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, AS
HIGH AS A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-70%) CHANCE ALONG/EAST US-83,
BEFORE CEASING BY SATURDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
FROM ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, PEAKING NEAR 1.3-1.6+
IN. TOMORROW MORNING AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
AS WELL AS ALONG/EAST OF US-83 ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHLIGHTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN EXTREME PORTIONS OF GREELEY
AND WICHITA COUNTIES, RESPECTIVELY, WHERE THE CHANCES OF DEEPER
CONVECTION AND REPEATED OR LONGER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
HIGHER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BENEATH SEVERE
LIMITS, THOUGH A BIT OF MODEST SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) FURTHER SOUTH
COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTIER WINDS AND MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WITHIN THE DEEPEST OF CONVECTION, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL COULD
EXPAND FURTHER NORTH.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING CLOUD CLOVER DROPS HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE
MID/UPPER 70S TODAY TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S TOMORROW AND BACK TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS. OVERCAST SKIES
MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S, WARMER
FURTHER EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
SATURDAY MORNING, A WEAK 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FORECAST
REGION. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE
TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DUE TO
WEAKER SURFACE WINDS ALONGSIDE CLEARING OF CLOUDCOVER, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SOLAR HEATING TO DOMINATE AS THE PRIMARY HEATING MECHANISM FOR
THE DAY. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY LREF GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS A
60% CHANCE OR HIGHER FOR LESS THAN 10% CLOUDCOVER ALONG AND WEST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83. IN ADDITION, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50% CHANCE OR
GREATER THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST REGION. EVEN NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA) EXCEPT ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 283 WHERE LINGERING CLOUDCOVER MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 1
IN 3 CHANCE OR LESS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 25 MPH ACROSS MOST
OF THIS AREA, WHICH LEAVES CONFIDENCE IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OCCURRING LESS THAN 5%.
RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, AS NBM PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE REMAINS BELOW
A 10% PROBABILITY FOR ALL AREAS THAT GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR.
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVERHEAD SOMETIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A SURFACE LOW AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH THE AID OF SUFFICIENT UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT HOURS MONDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS
HAVE AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TRENTON, NE TO HILL CITY, KS HAVE AS HIGH AS A 75% CHANCE FOR
THE SAME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83 WHERE
LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS BETWEEN A 1 IN 2 AND 1 IN 3 CHANCE THAT SURFACE
CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) WILL BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
THE SAME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50% CHANCE THAT SFC-
500MB WIND SHEAR WILL EXCEED 30 KNOTS, WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE IF THEY DEVELOP. HIGH WINDS WOULD BE
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS, AS GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, CAPE AND WIND SHEAR SEEM LIKE THEY WOULD BE A BIT LOW
FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES TO OCCUR WITH STORMS. AS SUCH, A
REASONABLE FORECAST WOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO HAVING A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY IS AROUND 5%.
FORECAST GUIDANCE BECOMES A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN SUPPORT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVERHEAD INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BECOMING LESS CERTAIN ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. LREF GUIDANCE
DOESN'T SEEM TO FAVOR THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHEN ABOUT 55-60% OF THE MEMBERS SHOW 500-MB
HEIGHTS ABOVE 576 DAM (5760 METERS). HOWEVER, EVEN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, 30% OF THE MEMBERS STILL SHOW THE TROUGH IN THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY WOULD DEPEND ON WHETHER THE TROUGH IS STILL IN THE AREA OR
NOT. IF THE FEATURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 80S.
OTHERWISE, COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
GLD: LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3SM AND 6SM
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18Z WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED T-STORMS AND
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF BY 18-20Z. LOW
CEILINGS MAY SCATTER OUT SOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS. SSE WINDS OF 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MCK: LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS THROUGH 12-15Z WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER SSE FLOW ABOVE 1800 FT. WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS WILL DECREASE AFTER 15Z AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NORTH. VISIBILITY WILL DECREASE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER
OR T-STORM PASSING THROUGH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...IRISH
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...PIETRYCHA
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