753
FXUS63 KGLD 130421
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY.
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR AT SAME TIME.
- BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL FALL NEARLY 50 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
THE MCCOOK AIRPORT IS AT THE UPPER END OF RED FLAG WARNING, AND
APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY COUNTY MEETING CRITERIA. AM EXPECTING THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. AS SUCH HAVE ALLOWED
THE WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LEADING TO AN AREA OF INTENSE WINDS ACROSS
EASTERN WYOMING AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE,
TROUGH AXIS WAS DRAPED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, MARKING A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AT THE MOMENT.
FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE MOST PRESSING CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, LULL IN WINDS NEAR SFC TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA TO MOVE INTO AREA, WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING IS ON TRACK AND DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GLD CWA.
ONCE THE SUN SETS, EXPECT TO WINDS TO DECOUPLE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. OVERALL ASIDE FROM WINDS CHANGING
DIRECTION, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE A BREAK FROM THE WINDS, SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS
THE KS/CO BORDER. TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH, WESTERLY WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE DRIEST CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP A SCENARIO
WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CRITICAL, ALTHOUGH OVER A
MUCH SMALLER AREA THAN TODAY.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT... PERIOD OF MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
BEGIN. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE WINDS WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS HERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS LOWERS CONFIDENCE BELOW WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A WATCH. BIGGER
CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WHEN STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT DATA SUPPORTS THE SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING OVERNIGHT, WITH 10+MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES EXPECTED AS
IT PASSES. WITH INTENSE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AN
ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT WOULD SUGGEST THREAT FOR WINDS GUSTING
OVER 60 MPH AS IT PASSES. WITH STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING AFTER
A PERIOD OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS AM A BIT WORRIED THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF BLOWING DUST COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER WITH SURGE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z, HAVE QUESTIONS IF SOIL WILL REMAIN
PRIMED TO GET LOFTED AS DEW/CONDENSATION FORMS. POTENTIAL
RAIN/SNOW ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ALSO LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
A SIGNIFICANT DUST THREAT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
WILL BE A SOMEWHAT DRAMATIC SWING IN CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A MAJOR CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL OCCUR
ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY 40 TO 50 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SATURDAY. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A FRONT OF THIS MAGNITUDE, WINDS
WILL RESPOND IN KIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW. QUICK LOOK AT DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
WINDS WILL BE AT OUR NEAR HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
WITH EVEN BIAS CORRECTED FIELDS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT WIND ACROSS
REGION. WITH THIS POTENTIAL, COMBINED WITH LIKELY SURGE OF INTENSE
WINDS AS INITIAL FRONT PASSES, HIGH WIND WATCH MAY BECOME
NEEDED AS SYSTEM NEARS. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE MATTER,
VERTICAL PROFILES SUGGEST DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
WILL CREATE WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY LEADING TO POTENTIAL
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH THE WIND. WHILE
CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT IN THIS SCENARIO, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
LOW (15%) THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW TO BE AN ISSUE ON SUNDAY.
JUST AS FAST AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A COLD/SNOWY ONE, IT WILL
BEGIN TO FLIP BACK TO A PREVAILING WARM AND DRY ONE. WHILE IT WILL
NOT BE AS RAPID AS THE CHANGE THIS WEEKEND, GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H5 RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS RIDGE
BUILDS, WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL COME WITH IT. TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR 90 BY NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EACH TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. WINDS ARE
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY
AGAIN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ252-253.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...TRIGG
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