947
FXUS63 KGLD 131127
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
TODAY.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- WINDS UP TO 50-65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
THIS MORNING, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS FROM A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE A NORTHWESTERLY
850 MB LLJ THAT WILL GENERALLY PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, MAYBE
EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. THE RECENTLY SNOWPACKED AREAS SHOULD
BE WARMING TO AROUND 60 TODAY AS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH WAS
REPORTED MONDAY MORNING, MEANING MOST OF THE SNOW HAS LIKELY MELTED
AWAY FROM YESTERDAY'S WARM CONDITIONS.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LET US MIX INTO THE LLJ, WHICH WILL BE
AROUND 30 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SUPPORT RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 20%. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE TEMPERATURES WARM TO
70 DEGREES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER. THIS IS WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
BE THE LOWEST, AND COULD DRIVE RH VALUES BRIEFLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. GFDI VALUES FOR TODAY ARE LARGELY IN THE LOW 20S. ALL THIS TO
SAY THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRI-
STATE BORDER.
0-2 KM LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON ARE APPROACHING 8.5-9 C/KM.
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS, THIS GIVES A SLIM ~2% CHANCE
OF PATCHY BLOW DUST, ONCE AGAIN AROUND THE TRI-STATE BORDER.
TONIGHT, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL ENTER THE CWA AND BRING WITH IT A
COLD FRONT. WE COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES, WITH SOME FLURRIES MIXED
IN, ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0-15Z WEDNESDAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
OVERNIGHT WINDS TO PICK UP, INCLUDING SOME NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 25-
40 KTS. THESE WINDS AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE PBL WELL
MIXED, PUTTING LOW TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
THERE IS A VERY LOW (<5%) CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THIS STEMS FROM THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HAVING A MOIST LOW LAYER BEHIND THE MAIN VORTICITY,
AND THE MOISTURE LAYER NOT EXTENDING INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
RAP, NAM, AND GFS CROSS SECTIONS ALL SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY WHILE
HAVING SOME SPOTTY WEAK NEGATIVE OMEGA. ADDITIONALLY, IF DRIZZLE
DOES OCCUR, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, IT'S FAR
MORE LIKELY THAT THIS WILL PRESENT MORE AS VERY LOW STRATUS. MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE THE DRIZZLE WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM NORTON, KS TO TRENTON, NE.
WEDNESDAY, WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST, LIKELY LEADING
TO FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20-35 KTS RANGE WITH SOME 40-45 KTS BEING
POSSIBLE. REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
HAPPEN AROUND SUNRISE, SO PREPARE FOR A VERY BREEZY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTABLE COOLER, LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN
THE 40S. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY LOW. LOOKING AT
LAPSE RATES, 0-2 KM RATES IN EASTERN COLORADO COULD REACH 9-9.5
C/KM. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST IN EASTERN COLORADO. IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, LAPSE
RATES LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE, AROUND 7-8 C/KM, LOWERING THE BLOWING
DUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 2-5%. ADDITIONALLY, THE INCREASED HUMIDITY
MAY LOWER THE HELP TO DECREASE THE BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL, BUT THIS
IS AN UNTESTED HYPOTHESIS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD IN, ALLOWING THE
SKY TO CLEAR AND GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE WINDS. THIS WILL, HOWEVER
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS BORING.
THURSDAY, EITHER A DISORGANIZED ALBERTA CLIPPER OR A STRONG TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY LOW WILL MOVE IN TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T KNOW WHAT IT WANTS TO BE
YET, WHICH INTRODUCES SOME NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST.
THE MOST LIKELY WAY THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT, BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE, A TILTED 500 MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST, BETWEEN THE NEW AND PREVIOUS TROUGHS. IN THE IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOME FAIRLY STRONG VORTICITY WILL HELP MIX
DOWN SOME OF THE MID LEVEL MOMENTUM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND THE
SAME TIME, AN ACCOMPANYING 850 MB COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CWA, WITH 35-50 KTS 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THANKS TO THE
RIDGE DURING THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW
60S, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT PBL MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW GUSTS AROUND
35-45 KTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA.
THE SECOND MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IS
SLOWER THAN MODELS ARE SHOWING, LEADING TO A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT, LOWERING POTENTIAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25-35. CONVERSELY, IF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER, WE COULD SEE 50-55 KTS GUSTS. IN
ANY SCENARIO, EASTERN COLORADO AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE TRI-STATE
BORDER WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS.
RH VALUES THURSDAY ARE ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS AND GFDI
VALUES ARE LARGELY TOPPING OUT IN THE 40-55 RANGE. THESE FACTORS ARE
CURRENTLY KEEPING US FROM ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS 70% CONFIDENCE IN BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
BUT ONLY 40-50% CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BLOWING DUST IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, 0-2 KM LAPSE
RATES RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 7.5-10 C/KM IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AREAS
NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER. 2-2.5 LAPSE RATES ARE EVEN CRAZIER,
RANGING FROM 5.5-9 C/KM ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THIS GIVES ABOUT A 5-
10% CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY
START GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING. LOWS LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SINGLE
DIGIT, AND NEAR 0, WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
FRIDAY, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION PLACING OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) UNDER A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A HIGH
IMPACT WEATHER DAY WITH STRONG WINDS, BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS
IN THE MID TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM 25-30
KNOTS AND GUSTS FROM 35-45 KNOTS. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA
IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 30-35 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 55 KNOTS. THE NBM IS
SHOWING PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 65% FOR GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS TO
OCCUR FOR THE CWA. BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
HIGH WINDS AND MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE 9.5 C/KM AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
BELOW 6.5 C/KM. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS APPROXIMATELY 40% FOR
BLOWING DUST CAUSING VISIBILITIES OF <1 MILE.
FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THERE IS A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LOGAN COUNTY TO NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY WITH
RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES OF <15%. GIVEN THE HIGH WINDS
AND LOW RH VALUES, RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS LIKELY TO BE MET.
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE ELEVATED FRIDAY, WHICH
SUPPORT A HIGH RATE OF SPREAD AND NEGATIVELY IMPACT SUPPRESSION
EFFORTS. VALUES RANGE FROM 65-75 WITH THE YUMA AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES BEING ON THE HIGHER END.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE AND CALM DOWN AFTER
SUNDOWN. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH IN
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS SEVERE SATURDAY, BUT THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
STILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
AND GUSTS FROM 25-40 KNOTS. BLOWING DUST IS STILL A CONCERN SATURDAY
DUE TO HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND BORDERLINE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S. THESE MAY LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES DEPENDING ON HOW FRIDAY PLAYS OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACH ZERO
FOR THE COLORADO COUNTIES AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
WE REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. AGAIN, THE NORTHWEST CWA ON THE HIGHER END
OF SPEEDS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES BOTTOM OUT
NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. MONDAY CONTINUES TO
BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. WINDS ARE BREEZY
FROM 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AROUND 1-6Z, KMCK COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
MVFR STRATUS MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT. THIS WILL PRESENT AN ICING
THREAT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND SUPER-COOLED WATER IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST
FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL. OTHERWISE, THE DEFINING TRAIT WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KTS MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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