733
FXUS63 KGLD 130518
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1018 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- WINDY TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BLOWING DUST
MAY BE POSSIBLE. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE FIRE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN OMEGA BLOCK, THE CENTER (RIDGE) OF WHICH
WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE
TRI STATE AREA WILL BE SITUATED AT/NEAR AN INFLECTION POINT IN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE AND
AN AMPLIFYING EAST CONUS TROUGH.. IN NW TO N FLOW ALOFT.
TODAY-TONIGHT: WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DURING THE PAST 24-HR, EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.. ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH A
10-20 MPH NW BREEZE. LOCALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN
AREAS WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER.. SOUTHERN GREELEY/WICHITA
COUNTIES, IN PARTICULAR, WHERE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE
LOWER 40'S.
TUESDAY: UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
(EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE) WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO THE NNW (TUE AFT) AND N (TUE NIGHT). IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, A BROAD (ALBEIT INCREASINGLY WEST-EAST
ORIENTED) SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
FOSTERING SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BREEZIER.. AND WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 60'S AND NW WINDS AT 10-20 MPH (SOUTH OF I-70) TO
20-30 MPH (NORTH OF I-70). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
VERTICAL MIXING COULD FACILITATE GUSTS TO ~40 MPH IN FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 36).. IF
INSOLATION/MIXING AREN'T SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER (IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER (TUESDAY): MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG/
NORTH OF I-70, WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ~20-30% ARE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR (PRECLUDING WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS).
TUESDAY NIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS (TUE AFT) WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL-
EASTERN NEBRASKA (TUE EVE) AND KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (TUE NIGHT)..
WHILE SEPARATE/DISTINCT (AND MORE ROBUST) SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN
MANITOBA/ONTARIO DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MN-WI AND THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE
DAKOTAS WILL DRIVE AN INVERTED INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA TUE EVE (SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, ~00Z
WED), THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WILL MANIFEST AS A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF (1-2 HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONG
(~35-45 MPH) NORTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MODEST IN NATURE, AND THAT.. TURBULENT
MIXING ASSOC/W BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL, MORE THAN ANYTHING,
HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
(COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS) RANGING FROM THE MID 30'S (NORTH)
TO LOWER 40'S (SOUTH) BY SUNRISE WED MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE TRI-STATE BORDER TUE
EVE/NIGHT.. MAINLY BETWEEN ~03-08Z WHEN BOTH DRY-BULB AND WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
WED-WED NIGHT: THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL REMAIN AT/NEAR AN
INFLECTION POINT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BETWEEN A PRONOUNCED
WEST CONUS RIDGE AND A PRONOUNCED EAST CONUS TROUGH.. IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (TUE NIGHT) WILL DRIVE
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS (850 MB TEMPS -15 TO -23C) SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES (WED MORNING) AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY (WED AFTERNOON).. WELL EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA..
FAR ENOUGH, THAT.. EVEN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
(850 MB TEMPS < -2C) WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED EAST/DOWNHILL OF
THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA. NEVERTHELESS, MODEST COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (TUE
NIGHT-WED MORNING) WILL FOSTER NOTICEABLY COOLER (ALBEIT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE) HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40'S TO LOWER 50'S,
COOLEST IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BREEZY (~20-30 MPH)
NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER DIMINISH TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME
WILL RAPIDLY ENSUE LATE WED NIGHT / VERY EARLY THU MORNING..
AND THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS (~23-29F) MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNRISE,
PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND, AND SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST. A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. EXPECT A WARM UP AS
WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD 50S WITH A FEW
LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 15-25MPH FOR KS
AND NE AND UP TO 30MPH FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID-20S FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM INDIANOLA TO
OAKLEY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL BLOWING DUST AND
GUSTY WINDS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FIRE WEATHER RISK DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITH THE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH, THERE IS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED
TO COME OVER THE REGION, WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE GUSTY WINDS.
LAPSE RATES, SURFACE WINDS AND 0.5-1KM WINDS ARE ALL LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST ISSUES. WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FAVORABLE SOURCE REGION IN ADDITION TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DUST ISSUES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS FAR AS FIRE CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR ARES ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM WRAY, COLORADO TO RUSSELL SPRINGS AND LEOTI, KANSAS. WINDS
GUSTING ABOVE 35MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY.
ALSO OF NOTE WITH FRIDAY IS THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. DON'T HAVE 100%
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IN TIME; HOWEVER,
850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.
EXPECTED HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-40S.
THERE REMAINS A BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY SLIPS TO THE EAST. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS THURSDAY, BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20% RANGE. WINDS GUSTING 25-40MPH ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S AS A RIDGE PUSHES EAST OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AROUND 300-500FT WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THIS LAYER TO
AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10
KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST UNTIL ABOUT 18-19Z. SPEEDS SHOULD
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. AFTER
00 WEDNESDAY, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 200-400 FEET FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 45
KTS. THERE IS ALSO A 15% CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND CEILINGS
AROUND 3000FT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...KAK
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