724
FXUS63 KGLD 242037
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO
HOXIE LINE THROUGH 5 PM CST.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BRING INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT AS WELL AS
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
YUMA COUNTY IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY.
- A WINTER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
15Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE BROAD RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH CWA IN GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OF AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY KSUX TO KGUY
JUST TO THE EAST OF AREA. MORNING SOUNDING AT KDDC INDICATED A VERY
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IN SOUTHWEST KS, BUT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THIS DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO TODAYS FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SUGGESTS THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH OUT THE
CWA, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY AS THINGS
MIX OUT.
FIRE WEATHER, WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME DUST ARE THE MOST PRESSING NEAR
TERM CONCERNS.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
MAGNITUDE OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN BEHIND AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY IT. STARTING TO
SEE SOME POCKETS OF LOW HUMIDITY AND MARGINAL WINDS DEVELOP, BUT
WITH GFDI REMAINING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS NOT CONVINCED THREAT IS
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNING AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SUNSET, WITH LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MOST PRESSING CONCERN FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE
FIRE WEATHER AND WINDS AND THE HAZARDS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THOSE PATTERNS. RAP IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF IT. IN THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO, WE
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THREE
HOUR PRESSURE RISES AND TIMING OF FRONT IN THIS CASE WOULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE AS
WELL. BOTH GFS AND CANADIAN ARE SIMILAR TO THE RAP ALTHOUGH MORE
MUTED ON MAGNITUDE OF WINDS WHILE NAM REMAINS NOTABLY SLOWER
POSING A MUCH SMALLER OVERALL RISK. WHILE NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENCE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, EVEN TAKING A MORE AVERAGE
APPROACH YIELDING A FEW HOURS OF GFDI HITTING SIGNIFICANT
THREAT LEVELS. FURTHER COMPLICATING ALL OF THIS, WEAK AXIS OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT. WITH VERTICAL PROFILE REMAINING VERY DRY AND INSTABILITY
LIMITED, THINK THAT THESE SHOWERS WOULD POSE A STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND THREAT COMBINED WITH LITTLE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND.
ONE OTHER CONCERN SHOULD A SOLUTION LIKE RAP OCCUR IS BLOWING DUST.
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME DUST PLUMES AHEAD OF FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN
YUMA COUNTY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WHEN FRONT HITS THIS AREA WITH
PRECONDITIONED/VERY DRY SOIL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING IT
WOULD BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A "WALL OF DUST" TYPE EVENT
OCCURRING ALONG KS/CO BORDER. SINCE THIS IS THE WORST CASE TYPE
OF SOLUTION, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (~15%) THAT THIS WILL OCCUR
BUT DOES WARRANT MONITORING.
AFTER FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. A LINGERING FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST
ON THURSDAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY, BUT WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY, LOWERING OVERALL CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
FRIDAY, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM AS OUR REGION REMAINS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). DESPITE LOW RH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS HAVE OVERALL DIMINISHED DUE TO WINDS BACKING DOWN WITH THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NBM. YUMA COUNTY COULD STILL HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH WILL COOL OUR REGION
DOWN. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO ALIGN MORE ON HOW COLD OUR REGION WILL
GET. NBM 75-25TH PERCENTILE DIFFERENCES IN HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
NARROWED DOWN TO AROUND 9 DEGREES F FOR OUR CWA. THE REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TRAVERSES EAST.
APPROXIMATELY 1/3 OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSING EAST QUICKER THAN THE REST. A QUICKER MOVING
SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW LESS COLD AIR TO ADVECT TOWARDS OUR REGION
RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES, CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
AND APPROXIMATELY 2/3S OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALIGN ON THE
SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND NBM TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 55 DEGREES F ARE
AROUND 80% FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AND BETWEEN
50-60% FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR OUR
REGION.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S TO 50S. WINDS AGAIN ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, OUR CWA HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DUE TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 10-30% BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW/WINTERY MIX. WIND
GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST FROM 20-30 MPH FOR THE CWA, SO
BLOWING SNOW COULD BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON IF AND WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION FALLS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS.
A FEW HIGH BASED VIRGA/SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTFUL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 545 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
NEWEST 12Z GUIDANCE THAT IS COMING IN IS HOLDING A 40-45 KNOT
850MB JET IN PLACE ACROSS HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW DECATUR AND
NORTON COUNTIES A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SEEN. DUE TO THE
LONGER NATURE IN WHICH THIS JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN FORECASTED WINDS AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SHOULD BE FULLED MIXED OUT AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO
AROUND 2000' AGL. BASED ON THIS WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH MAY BE
POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY 17-20Z. DID CONTEMPLATE A SMALL RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT OPTED TO HOLD
OFF DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND 300K AND SEEN IN NEARLY ALL
SURFACE DEW POINT OUTPUT AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES INCREASES. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE CWA AROUND 20-22Z WHICH WOULD LEAVE A SHORT WINDOW FOR
MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A 45% CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE IS DELAYED AN HOUR OR
TWO WHICH IN RETURN WOULD LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BUT WITH DECLINING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TAKEN A LOOK AT THE VAPOR PRESSURE DEFICIT THE AVERAGE AT THE
DUNDY AND RED WILLOW NEBRASKA MESONET SITES IS LOWER THAN IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR EXAMPLE BY AROUND 0.15- 0.2HG AND IS
MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. AS FOR THE
KANSAS SIDE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO
20% WHICH DOES CUT DOWN OF THE FIRE SPREAD RISK SOME AS WELL DUE
TO THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN 3+ HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ,THE DECREASE IN WINDS AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED 10
HOUR FUEL MOISTURE AND LOWER VAPOR PRESSURE DEFICIT MENTIONED
ABOVE AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ252.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ253.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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