612
FXUS63 KGLD 150844
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS ENDING THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND 30-50 MPH ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE IN COLORADO.
- FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THEN A LIGHT FREEZE
LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SECONDARY BAND TO THE
NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARED OUT REMNANTS OF THE UPPER
LOW MAY SURVIVE AS FAR SOUTH AS YUMA COUNTY BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING MAY BE ENOUGH
TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE AT 50-60% IN A
FAIRLY SMALL AREA OF WESTERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES
FOR GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 55 MPH AFTER 18Z THROUGH ABOUT 22Z.
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE MIXING
HEIGHTS, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE GIVEN THE MOIST TOP SOILS. GUSTS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE. WINDS TAKE SOME
TIME TO DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH WELL INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A NOTICEABLE DECLINE. THIS MAY INHIBIT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 32 OR COLDER ARE RUNNING AROUND 40-50% NEAR
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER TO UP TO 70-90% ALONG HIGHWAY 59
AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY, WHERE THERE IS ALSO AROUND A 40%
CHANCE FOR A HARD FREEZE OF 28 OR LOWER. ELSEWHERE, A FROST IS
MORE LIKELY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. WINDS SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, GUSTING 20-30
MPH BY SATURDAY MORNING IN COLORADO AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. THIS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING DESPITE THE
CLEAR SKIES. NONETHELESS, PROBABILITIES ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH
FOR A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE ENTIRE AREA, NEAR 100%, WITH A WIDE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES FOR A HARD FREEZE, FAVORING LOW SPOTS IN
COLORADO AND ALONG THE REPUBLICAN RIVER. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH COMMON BY THE AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN COLORADO.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 15% OR LOWER
FROM YUMA COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS MAY EXTEND INTO THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL REACH THE 70S WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH 60S
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VIA LONGWAVE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY TO
KICK OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SAID RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, SHOULD PROPAGATE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME ZONAL THROUGH
MONDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PROJECTS A SECOND RIDGE TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE THE PLAINS REGION, SETTLING THE FLOW PATTERN BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS, ALL AHEAD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW CONUS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE A BRIEF SHORTWAVE EARLY
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) BY THE
TIME THE EVENING COMES AROUND. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM
THIS TROUGH PASSAGE OTHER THAT A WIND SHIFT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY, MOVING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY. THIS FEATURE ALSO SHOULD NOT DO MUCH OTHER THAN
PRESSURE CHANGES AND WIND SHIFTS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
PICK UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT MAY SET UP NEAR THE TRI-STATE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES CONDITIONS TO BE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. 5% OR LESS POPS (PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION) ARE FAVORED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS MAY NOT LAST
THOUGH AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE SECTION, PAIRED
WITH LOW-PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING THE NEXT DECENT
RAINFALL CHANCES TO OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT A GENERAL 15-25%
POPS IS FORECASTED AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS/QPF
DOESN'T SHOW MUCH ACCUMULATION FOR OUR AREA RIGHT NOW; NONETHELESS,
STILL WORTH MONITORING AS THIS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
MOVING ON TO HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE COVERAGE AREA, A SLIGHT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD AS WE REBOUND FROM WELL-BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY THEN UPPER
70S/LOW 80S POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS,
SUNDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE MID 30S. LOWS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP ABOVE THE MID
30S, WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WARMING TREND WITH LOW/MID 40S AND
THEN UPPER 40S/LOW 50S EXPECTED, RESPECTIVELY.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE MID-TEENS (14-15%) IN OUR
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE WINDS
OVER THESE AREAS SHOULD SIT AROUND 15-20 MPH FROM THE NORTH,
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. GOING FORWARD, RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED
AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS WEST OF US-385 MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE; THUS, THE FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK LIKELY WILL BE MILDER POST-SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA, RH VALUES IN THE 20-40% RANGE IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WINDS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
MONDAY, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE, THEN
SETTLING BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. GUSTS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO EXCEED 25 MPH DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD EVERYWHERE
EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE LINE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
LIFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AS A NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ALL
SHOWERS ARE NOW EAST OF KGLD, THOUGH KMCK CAN EXPECT TO SEE ON-AND-
OFF RAIN AS THIS BAND GOES THROUGH. OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN CEILINGS
SLIGHTLY RISING AND VISIBILITIES HOVERING AROUND 3-5 STATUTE MILES
AS SHOWERS COME THROUGH, SO THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR KMCK. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 10 AND
11Z, THOUGH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH ABOUT 13 OR
14Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FURTHER SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THESE SHOWERS HAVE
A CHANCE OF DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING KGLD AND KMCK. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF WIND SHEAR WITH A LOW LEVEL JET STARTING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY WIND
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND BRIEF.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ079.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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