575  
FXUS63 KGLD 221934  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
134 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
OVERVIEW: A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DE-  
AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST TOWARD THE ROCKIES  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY SITUATED  
~600 MILES OFFSHORE SOCAL WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD BAJA CA LATE  
TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DESERT SW ON  
TUESDAY.  
 
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY  
AS THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT  
BASIN AND SW-SSW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGES ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE  
ROCKIES. WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING  
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ON TUESDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS  
THE MOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY EVENING BEHIND SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING. ONCE THAT RIDGING PASSES EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  
AND THE DIVERGENT FLOW SIDE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE  
AREA, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME  
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE TRI-STATE REGION. SHOWERS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING STARTING IN EAST-  
CENTRAL COLORADO. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OUT  
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. ROBUST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW  
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP A FRESH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THESE  
EXPECTED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, NO LIGHTNING OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS  
EXPECTED FROM THESE RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH BE LESS THAN  
HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN  
INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH  
EASTWARD TO PUT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF  
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY RISING MOTION  
AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. BY THURSDAY EVENING,  
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE UNDER PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH MILD  
TEMPERATURES. THINGS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL FRIDAY  
EVENING WHEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS  
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.  
HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE RIDGE  
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BOTH STRENGTHEN, THERE WILL BE LESS  
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY RAIN. AS A RESULT, THIS COMING WEEKEND  
SHOULD BE DRY, MOSTLY CLEAR, AND FAIRLY ENJOYABLE FOR THE TRI-STATE  
AREA. IT IS NOT IMMEDIATELY CLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE NEXT RAIN  
CHANCES WILL BE AFTER WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA.  
 
THE COMING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WARMING UP TO THE LOW 60S THURSDAY  
AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY. LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE  
LOW 40S OR UPPER 30S. A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO GET TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
MORNING WILL RETURN TO THE MID TO LOW 30S FOR MOST, BRINGING BACK  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN  
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL  
CAUSE TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO REBOUND A LITTLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD -- THOUGH UPPER  
LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS AT 15-25 KFT) WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY. INITIALLY N-NE WINDS AT 8-12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE  
ENE-E AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE ESE-SSE AT  
10-15 KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT  
LONG TERM...PATTON  
AVIATION...VINCENT  
 
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