054
FXUS63 KGLD 172315
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RED FLAG AREA IN NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE
SLOWLY IMPROVING, ALLOWING FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING. NO
CHANGES TO THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021
TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO CENTRAL UTAH DURING THE DAY THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS
LEAVING A SUNNY SKY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
START TO GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES A TREK
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S FROM TRENTON TO
GOODLAND AND CHEYENNE WELLS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THERE IS
A SLIM CHANCE FOR SOME WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE AS THE STORM TAKES ITS MOISTURE
WITH IT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S. HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021
A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL SEE AREAS OF FROST AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLDER OF THE TWO, HOWEVER CONDITIONS LOOK ONLY MARGINAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD KILLING HARD FREEZE OF 28 OR LOWER, WITH LOWER
30S MORE LIKELY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN AREAS, WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND NORTHEAST COLORADO, AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER, WINDS
APPEAR TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS FOR KGLD, SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15KTS THRU 12Z MONDAY, THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10-15KTS. WINDS FOR KMCK, SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS THRU
09Z MONDAY, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 16Z, SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS. LLWS
05Z-09Z MONDAY 210@30KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
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