926
FXUS63 KGLD 131149
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
THE FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE
UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THAT
BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND BRINGS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THAT INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THAT BEGINS AS A LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MIX THIS EVENING AND CHANGES OVER TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MIX AS IT TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL REINITIATE OVER THE WEST WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK OVER TO ALL
LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER THAT HAS REMAINED WEST OF THE ROCKIES
AS PART OF A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO OCCUR FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH AND GO
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
THEN TO MAINLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW IN THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD
APPROACH THREE INCHES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEYOND THAT TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ALOFT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
DELIVERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY,
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. THE
TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LARGELY DRY WEATHER RETURNS IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND.
ON SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES TO EASTERN COLORADO, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY (DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE EXITS THE AREA) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE COMES INTO POOR AGREEMENT FOR
MONDAY. ULTIMATELY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE
THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
THE LINE. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST IS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS IN EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY START TO THE LONG TERM, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW, AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED BEYOND THE END OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO, BUT REMAIN LOW ENOUGH
TO EXCLUDE THEM FROM THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
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