575
FXUS63 KGLD 221934
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018
OVERVIEW: A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DE-
AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST TOWARD THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY SITUATED
~600 MILES OFFSHORE SOCAL WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD BAJA CA LATE
TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DESERT SW ON
TUESDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND SW-SSW FLOW ALOFT IMPINGES ON THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES. WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY EVENING BEHIND SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. ONCE THAT RIDGING PASSES EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND THE DIVERGENT FLOW SIDE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE TRI-STATE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING STARTING IN EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OUT
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. ROBUST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP A FRESH SUPPLY OF MOISTURE TO FEED INTO THESE
EXPECTED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, NO LIGHTNING OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH BE LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO PUT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL PUT A DAMPER ON ANY RISING MOTION
AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. BY THURSDAY EVENING,
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE UNDER PARTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES. THINGS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER WITH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BOTH STRENGTHEN, THERE WILL BE LESS
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY RAIN. AS A RESULT, THIS COMING WEEKEND
SHOULD BE DRY, MOSTLY CLEAR, AND FAIRLY ENJOYABLE FOR THE TRI-STATE
AREA. IT IS NOT IMMEDIATELY CLEAR AT THIS TIME WHEN THE NEXT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE AFTER WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA.
THE COMING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WARMING UP TO THE LOW 60S THURSDAY
AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY. LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 40S OR UPPER 30S. A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY STRUGGLING TO GET TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNING WILL RETURN TO THE MID TO LOW 30S FOR MOST, BRINGING BACK
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO REBOUND A LITTLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD -- THOUGH UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS AT 15-25 KFT) WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY N-NE WINDS AT 8-12 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE
ENE-E AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE ESE-SSE AT
10-15 KNOTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...VINCENT
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