092
FXUS63 KGLD 022236
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE HOT DAY ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 100S, THEN TEMPERATURES
COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE 80S.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR MONDAY, A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 100S, WILL PROMOTE DCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG BY
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
AFTER 21Z, THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY EVENING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND FINALLY DISSIPATING BY 06Z. INITIAL STORMS IN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WILL POSE A LIMITED
THREAT OF WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM, BUT BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CIN WILL BE HIGH BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SOMEWHAT MORE COMPLICATED. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING. THESE WILL BE SURFACE BASED AND POSSIBLY CLIP AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS A LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THOSE STORMS. THERE IS
ALSO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET, PEAKING
OVERNIGHT AT UP TO 50 KTS, OVER THE SHALLOW, COOLER UPSLOPE AIR
MASS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACCOMPANYING ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT
IN A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. MUCAPE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AT 500-1000 J/KG, BUT MAY SEE SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS OVERNIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY WILL
GET SHUNTED EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET WEAKENS AFTER 12Z.
AFTER MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL TRY TO
CLEAR SOUTH TO NORTH WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S, BUT MAY ONLY
SEE 70S IN THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA WHERE CLOUDS LINGER
THE LONGEST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, AND NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP CONVECTION THERE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD MOVE EAST INTO
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, THERE IS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET PRESENT WHICH COULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION DUE TO ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS DOES SHOW MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, SO A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, FOR THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. THE RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STALL
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. DURING THIS PERIOD, OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START OFF AS
ZONAL AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO COME FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE MOVES.
OVERALL, IT LOOKS TO BE HOT AND DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP TO THE HIGH 80S TO
LOW 90S. THURSDAY HAS THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AROUND
10-20%, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FRIDAY THOUGH
SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN HIGH 90S TO LOW
100S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN MID-TEENS FOR AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27. WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR LESS THAN 25 MPH. GFDI VALUES ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 20-40 WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
GROWTH. WHILE THE WINDS DO NOT MET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA, AND
THIS IS AROUND A WEEK OUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE ON
GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND THE DRIER FUELS IN THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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