681
FXUS63 KGLD 192228
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A
SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. BEST CHANCES BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, WHERE A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO.
- EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL AS MOVE EAST, LOCATED OVER COLORADO BY
FRIDAY AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH EMBEDDED WEAK
DISTURBANCES. WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME RISK
OF A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN THIS PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE WARMING UNDER THE RIDGE, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
90S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, CAMS SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER AREA, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
ALONG WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT, THERE MAY ALSO BE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY, POSSIBLY OUTFLOW FROM A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ONGOING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG, 40-50 KTS IS INDICATED
BY THE REFS BY 03Z, AS WELL AS MODERATE TO POCKETS OF EXTREME
INSTABILITY UP TO 4000 J/KG, CONCENTRATED IN THE AREA SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS PRIOR TO ABOUT 02Z WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL GOLF BALL SIZE OR LARGER,
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. AFTER 02Z, THE INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY DIMINISHES BUT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH PRIMARILY A
LINGERING LARGE HAIL RISK THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
AND BECOME ISOLATED. A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN AREAS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET, BUT THEY ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MUCAPE. FINALLY, MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE IN THE REPUBLICAN RIVER VALLEY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA.
AS NOTED, THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY BUT STILL WEST OF THE
ROCKIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. INSTABILITY PEAKS AT AROUND 01Z
AND IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, MODERATE TO POCKETS OF EXTREME CAPE UP
TO 4000 J/KG, EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO MOST OF
THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY, 30-40 KTS, BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED, CAMS
SHOW ONLY A HANDFUL OF UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING, WITH FORCING LIMITED
TO ANY WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, IF SOMETHING MANAGES TO GET GOING IT WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DOES DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND COULD
MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH ABOUT 06-09Z IN EASTERN AREAS
BEFORE IT WEAKENS.
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS LOCATED
OVER COLORADO BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND IT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO POCKETS OF EXTREME AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 30-40 KTS. QUESTION WILL BE COVERAGE
AND ONCE AGAIN WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST
IN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY SATURDAY, THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. WHILE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND
NO LONGER A FACTOR, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER COLORADO ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL INITIATE FRONT RANGE CONVECTION,
WHICH WILL TEND TO HAVE A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION AS THEY MAKE
THEIR WAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF REACHING
FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
SITUATED OVER THE SW CONUS AND LOOKS TO REMAIN SIMILAR PLACED
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S THAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME AS THE 594 DAM PORTION OF THE HIGH IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED
TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SW CONUS. IF THE HIGH CAN MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR WHICH WOULD RAISE OUR
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WINDS MAY BE
A LITTLE BREEZIER AS A 15-20 KNOT 850MB JET IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. A LACK OF 700MB JET BRINGS MY DOUBTS TO
HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME AND ANY WIND WOULD MAINLY
SUSTAINED.
THE POSITION OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA. THIS PATTER IN NOTORIOUS FOR LITTLE WAVES ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO GIVE US STORM CHANCES AND WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATING RAINFALL POTENTIAL IT DOES MAKE ME CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC. HOWEVER THOUGH IF THAT HIGH WERE TO SHIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WHICH SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THEN THAT
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT ANY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.CURRENTLY BASED ON
ENSEMBLE QPF DATA IT SEEMS THAT TUESDAY MAY HAVE THE RELATIVELY
HIGHER POTENTIAL AS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING A STRONGER
WAVE COMING OFF OF THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT EITHER KGLD OR
KMCK WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED AT THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY (AROUND 20%) OF BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT
EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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