054  
FXUS63 KGLD 172315  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
515 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021  
 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RED FLAG AREA IN NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE  
SLOWLY IMPROVING, ALLOWING FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING. NO  
CHANGES TO THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021  
 
TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER  
MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY  
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR SOUTH  
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN  
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST  
INTO CENTRAL UTAH DURING THE DAY THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING  
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS  
LEAVING A SUNNY SKY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH CLOUDS  
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM  
REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. AS THE SURFACE LOW  
DEEPENS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
START TO GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST  
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA  
DURING THE DAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES A TREK  
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. NORTHWEST WINDS  
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S  
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S FROM TRENTON TO  
GOODLAND AND CHEYENNE WELLS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE  
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THERE IS  
A SLIM CHANCE FOR SOME WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,  
OTHERWISE LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE AS THE STORM TAKES ITS MOISTURE  
WITH IT AWAY FROM THE AREA.  
 
WEDNESDAY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA  
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN  
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WELL OFF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE  
50S TO LOWER 60S. HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021  
 
A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL SEE AREAS OF FROST AS  
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY MORNING  
WILL BE COLDER OF THE TWO, HOWEVER CONDITIONS LOOK ONLY MARGINAL  
FOR A WIDESPREAD KILLING HARD FREEZE OF 28 OR LOWER, WITH LOWER  
30S MORE LIKELY.  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON IN  
WESTERN AREAS, WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND NORTHEAST COLORADO, AS  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER, WINDS  
APPEAR TO BE LACKING AT THIS TIME FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SUN OCT 17 2021  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THIS TIME.  
WINDS FOR KGLD, SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15KTS THRU 12Z MONDAY, THEN  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10-15KTS. WINDS FOR KMCK, SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS THRU  
09Z MONDAY, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 16Z, SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS. LLWS  
05Z-09Z MONDAY 210@30KTS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ041.  
 
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.  
 
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JN  
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...024  
AVIATION...JN  
 
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