349
FXUS63 KGLD 260840
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FLOODING
RISK REMAINS VERY LOW.
- WIDESPREAD NUISANCE AND PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
- 40% CHANCE OF BRIEF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 34 TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IS
COMING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS PROVIDING
WIDESPREAD FORCING, ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOIST AIR
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE RAIN ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT
PRECIPITATION, WIDESPREAD FOG IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE MID TO
LATE MORNING. WE CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE 0.5-4 MILE VISIBILITY IN
FOG THIS MORNING.
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, AS THE LOW-LEVEL LOW EJECTS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE CWA, ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THE MORE MOIST AIR OUT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ENDING FACTOR FOR THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO FULLY EXIT THE AREA BY 0Z WITH GRAHAM COUNTY BEING THE
LAST TO SEE PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY THE FRONT WILL BRING IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP AROUND 20-25 KTS
BEFORE 0Z THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING LOOK TO LARGELY
REMAIN UNDER 0.25 OF AN INCH SOUTH OF U.S. 36 AND AROUND 0.2-0.4
INCHES NORTH OF U.S. 36. AN ISOLATED POCKET OR TWO OF UP TO 1 INCH
OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE (15% CHANCE), MOST LIKELY AROUND RED
WILLOW COUNTY. SINCE THIS EVENT HAS BEEN PRIMARILY SLOW FALLING
RAIN, AND WILL REMAIN THIS WAY, THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOW LESS
THAN 10%.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
AFTER THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL PROMOTE AN
OVERALL WARMING TREND. TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S, THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING SHOWERS. BY
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO NEAR 70!
SEASONAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED, DESPITE THE WARMING HIGHS. TONIGHT, A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TRAILING THE LOW AS IT EXITS THE AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE DEW POINTS
AND AIR TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW FREEZE. AS IT STANDS, THERE IS A
40% CHANCE THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA, CO TO
NORTON, KS WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH, AND IT'S
ASSOCIATED INVERTED RIDGE, LEAVE THE CWA (AROUND 9-12Z), SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE. THIS WILL BRING IN MOIST, WARM
AIR ADVECTION, WARMING TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS ADVECTION
ALSO HAS A 60% CHANCE OF BRINGING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE CWA. MUCH LIKE MONDAY MORNING, MOST
VISIBILITIES WILL BE ABOVE 0.5 MILE, BUT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY, SINCE THE FOG THREAT IS LARGELY TIED TO THE
WAA, FREEZING FOG IS VERY UNLIKELY: LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF
OCCURRING. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WE HAVE PASSED THE END OF THE
GROWING SEASON, SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE
PRODUCTS FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
THURSDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
(PNW). THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE PLEASANT,
WITH MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
70S. FRIDAY IS WHEN WE START TO SEE A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IN THE PNW.
CURRENTLY, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE OF A CUT OFF LOW
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT WOULD GENERALLY KEEP OUR
REGION IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH VARIOUS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CURRENT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 20-40% FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY IS OVERALL WEAK FRIDAY WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND
SPOTTY CAPE VALUES OF <500 J/KG, SO A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ISN'T
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF IT IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE WEAK INSTABILITY
IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
IF THE TROUGH DIGS FARTHER SOUTH INSTEAD OF BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW, A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD DEVELOP DUE TO STRONGER SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S.
MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW OUR
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PANS OUT, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
NEAR AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR KGLD AND KMCK. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
WILL KEEP AIRPORTS IN LOW CATEGORIES WITH SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO JUST IFR. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE AROUND THE MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. A FEW
20 KTS GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MORE
LIKELY AT KMCK. THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FOG
AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN, PUTTING US BACK DOWN TO NEAR
MINIMUMS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL ICING, TOO.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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