398
FXUS63 KGLD 210531
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLING TREND CONTINUES TODAY!
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BEST
CHANCES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER AREA. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, SO BE PREPARED TO ACT!
- PATCHY FOG LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. CAMS SEEM TO BE FAVORING THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA NEAR
LIMON, WITH THOSE STORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER IN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA, STORMS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT
MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY SHEARED, BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
50 KTS, DUE TO A SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE UP TO 1500 J/KG IN COLORADO. THOSE
PARAMETERS SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OF
GOLF BALL SIZE OR GREATER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLUSTER
OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, WHICH HAD AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. THOSE
STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, SUSTAINED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN
THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES BY THE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE MORNING, HELPING SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. A FEW VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MAY POP
UP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL PEAK AT LESS THAN 500
J/KG. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN
A CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND ABOUT 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. MEAN STORM MOTIONS WILL TAKE THEM MAINLY NORTHEAST, WITH
A LOW PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THEY
DO, IT WOULD BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES INTO EAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO, BUT WEAKER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG,
THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 40 KTS
WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST FAIRLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES IN COLORADO, THEN MOVING INTO THE
REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.50" INCHES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
AROUND 40-50% FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40, TAPERING OFF TO
AROUND 20% ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR INTO NEBRASKA, WITH
LESS THAN 20% ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING OVER
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY PLACING THE TRI-STATE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A BIT THEN MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT SUNDAY. A WEAK 500 MB JET ACCOMPANIES THIS RIDGE BUT
EXITS THE REGION BY SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS FRIDAY,
INFLUENCING THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE EXISTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE AREA THURSDAY
USHERING IN PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
WITH RESPECT TO POPS, RAIN IS LIKELY (60-80%) EARLY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DROP
OFF A BIT BUT PERSIST WITH 30-50% CHANCES FOR THE CWA. FRIDAY'S
CHANCES SIT AT AROUND 25-40% AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OUR CWA.
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
SETTLES INTO ZONAL FLOW. FINALLY, SUNDAY PRESENTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN (20-30%) DURING THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SO AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
PROJECT A LOW INSTABILITY, LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH SO CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. SATURDAY/SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER (LOW TO MID
80S) THAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (MID TO UPPER 70S). SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE MODEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BLOWING IN AT 5-15 MPH FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SATURDAY ARE FORECASTED
FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH. LAST BUT NOT LEAST,
SUNDAY'S WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2026
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WORSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. IT MAY BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 7Z WHEN THE MVFR CEILINGS
FORM, BUT THEY WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS. KMCK WILL SEE IT WORST, LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
MINIMUMS BETWEEN 10-15Z. KGLD IS ONLY EXPECTED TO GET INTO IFR
RANGE, BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE CEILINGS DROP EVEN LOWER.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED. EXTENT AND DENSITY IS STILL UNKNOWN
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION. KGLD MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
LIGHTLY IMPACTING THE SITE BEFORE 9Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES/AMP
AVIATION...CA
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