277  
FXUS63 KGLD 022330  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
530 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS FRIDAY CONTINUING POSSIBLY INTO NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
TONIGHT...  
 
BREEZY S FLOW TAPERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.  
WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS OBSERVED AT MAX HEATING OF THE DAY, WITH  
LOCATIONS IN EAST-CENTRAL CO GETTING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S,  
EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60 GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF  
THE FORECAST REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS BOTTOMING OUT  
AS LOW AS THE MID 50S SHOULD WINDS BECOME CALM.  
 
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
BLUSTERY S WINDS. AS THE W CONUS H5 TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NE IN  
ADVANCE OF CONTINUED WAVE TRAIN OF N PACIFIC ENERGY, THE BROAD RIDGE  
PATTERN SHUNTED E, THE SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SW  
TO NE GRADIENT PROMOTES STRONG S WINDS WHILE ADVECTING SUB-TROPICAL  
MOISTURE N AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. SUBTLE COOLING OF  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH MOIST ADVECTION AND ANTICIPATED DEEP-LAYER  
MIXING UP AROUND 5 KFT, EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH  
THE DAY THAT SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS  
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND  
30 TO 35 MPH WITH THE MIX DOWN OF FASTER WINDS ALOFT. THROUGHOUT IT  
ALL, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30  
PERCENT.  
 
OVERNIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL  
REMAIN BREEZY. PERHAPS SOME LOW LYING AREAS COULD DECOUPLE BECOMING  
LIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONTINUED S WINDS ADVECTING  
BOTH MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT, AS GROUND TEMPERATURES COOL HAVE  
EXPECTATIONS OF A CAPPING INVERSION BENEATH WHICH MOISTURE SHOULD BE  
ALLOWED TO POOL THUS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS INTO  
THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE THE CASE OVER A MAJORITY OF  
THE FORECAST AREA MINUS PERHAPS EAST-CENTRAL CO. LOWS IN THE MID 60S  
MAINTAINED BY THE BREEZY S WINDS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
BEGINNING FRIDAY, AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE  
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. PERSISTENT N PACIFIC H3  
JET WAVE BREAKING ALONG THE CA COAST AT TIMES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT  
OF THE 4-CORNERS MONSOONAL HIGH. EXPECTING THE MAINTENANCE OF BOTH  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY UPSLOPING N ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PRECIPITABLE  
WATERS AT LEAST +1 INCH. WITH WEAK WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE EXPECTED  
BROAD NEAR-ZONAL PATTERN WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE PROMOTION OF  
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO  
DETERMINE IF ANY CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.  
 
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING  
THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING AND OUTCOMES REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS  
MOMENT. ROUGHLY 1-2K J/KG CAPE WITHIN W/NW 0-6 KM SHEAR GETTING UP  
TO 25-30 KTS, ENOUGH TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE. BUT IT IS SOME  
QUESTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINING CAPPED INTO LATE AND STORMS  
DEVELOPING FURTHER E, MORE SO INTO EVENING AS MODELS INDICATE THAT  
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING AND IMPINGING ON THE SWEEPING COLD  
FRONT THAT WE SEE MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN  
EXPECTATION THAT CAMS WILL PAINT A BETTER PICTURE OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS AND PROVIDE US HIGHER CONFIDENCE.  
 
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE OF A WASH, RINSE,  
REPEAT CYCLE AS THE 4-CORNERS MONSOONAL HIGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE N-  
PERIPHERY OF WHICH CONTINUED ENERGY SEEMINGLY PROMOTES THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO THAT TRANSLATES E INTO NW KS  
WITH THE MEAN W/NW WIND PATTERN. EACH DAY WILL REQUIRE MONITORING OF  
FORCING MECHANISMS THAT CAN PROMOTE LIFT IN AN EXPECTED MAINTAINED  
ENVIRONMENT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR REGION. INSTABILITY AND  
SHEAR ARE LARGELY UNCERTAIN SO CONVECTIVE MODES AND EXACT OUTCOMES  
ARE TRULY UNKNOWN. THINGS COULD GET COMPLICATED EVEN FROM ANY STORM  
COLD POOL OUTFLOWS. AN EYE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. HIGHS  
AROUND 90, LOWS AROUND 60.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 20-25 MPH  
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MID-DAY  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT BOTH AREA AIRPORTS. WIND SHIFTS  
GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. MSW  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL  
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL  
AVIATION...WILLIAMS  
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