409
FXUS63 KGLD 201705
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- MARGINAL SEVERE RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY
IN COLORADO, BUT COULD SEE THAT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON: GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ASSOC/W MODEST SE TO SSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE A SLOW/GRADUAL AFFAIR THAT'S CONFINED TO EASTERN
COLORADO, MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE
COUNTIES WHERE 850 MB DEWPOINTS AROUND -1 TO -3C (THIS MORNING)
ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 7C DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
(21-00Z). MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE.. A MODEST 250-350 MB TROUGH / SHEAR-AXIS
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.. MAY FOSTER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING, MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF GOODLAND BETWEEN ~12-18Z
(6A-12P) WHEN/WHERE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION -MAY- BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAPITALIZE ON/UTILIZE A VERY MEAGER AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (50-100 J/KG MUCAPE). EXPECT BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA AND 10 TO 20 MPH SE WINDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S.
LATE AFTERNOON-TONINGHT: A MODEST (1013-1015 MB) LEE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST CO THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE EMERGES FROM THE
ROCKIES AND PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOSTER MARGINAL
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (~250 J/KG MLCAPE) ALONG/WEST OF A LINE
FROM AKRON-LIMON-LAMAR THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN/WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT PROGRESS
DOWNSTREAM/EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER BY SUNSET (00-02Z), AT
WHICH POINT LOW-MID LEVEL (850-600 MB) WARM ADVECTION ON THE E
AND NE PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AND MODEST DPVA
ATTENDANT THE UPPER WAVE MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS THIS EVENING. WHILE
RECENT (06Z 05/20) RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST BROADLY AGREE
THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CO LATE THIS AFT AND PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEY VARY
CONSIDERABLY W/REGARD TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.. THE NAM NEST
BEING THE LEAST-AGRESSIVE SOLUTION. WHILE GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 40'S. -VINCENT
THURSDAY WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SCENARIO, BUT SHIFTED
NORTHWARD AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT THE
TIME OF PEAK HEATING. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER
EAST AND THE REFS HAS A CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM LIMON TO
FORT MORGAN ALONG WITH 35KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER 00Z, MUCAPE
OF AT LEAST 500 J/KG AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS ARE
FORECAST AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM COLORADO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME POCKETS OF MUCAPE UP TO 1000
J/KG FORECAST BY THE NAM THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING. NBM
HAS RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1" IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY
EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS, THEN AROUND 0.25-0.50" IN THE
REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THIS MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
CLEARING COULD OCCUR ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO WILL NEED TO SEE WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP IN
THE AFTERNOON AS NEW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG IT. HOWEVER,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY HAVE THE FRONT WELL TO THE
SOUTH, ENTERING OKLAHOMA, WHILE THE NAM IS SLOWER AND HAS THE
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. SINCE THIS IS STILL A
FEW DAYS OUT AND THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTION WHICH
MAY IMPACT THE ULTIMATE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE
HAZARDS ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SATURDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR
SATURDAY AND THE 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A
25-35% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
AFTER SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN, SO
EXPECT PRIMARILY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOONS FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 80S.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN
CWA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES OVERALL TRENDING DOWN
AND FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR TUESDAY, FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT STARTS TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY. IF THIS SURFACE LOW ENDS UP TRACKING TOWARD
OUR REGION, WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DEPARTING RAIN AROUND MCK. RAIN POTENTIAL
IS FORECAST TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CURRENTLY
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT GLD. LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY LIKELY
FOR EACH TERMINAL AS WELL AS SOME AIRPORT MIN CEILINGS FOR EACH
TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN THE AIRPORT MINIMUM CEILINGS IS AROUND
20-30% AS OF NOW. IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY END JUST BEFORE THE END OF
THE PERIOD AT MCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
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