498  
FXUS63 KGLD 251709  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1109 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MILD CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND  
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH  
RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (HIGHS  
25 - 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), POTENTIALLY EVEN APPROACHING  
MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS.  
 
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, RAIN AND SNOW.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
 
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT CONTINUES  
TO BRING IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS PRODUCING CLOUD  
COVER. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VERY LITTLE  
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED  
STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH THIS, THE  
AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE A FAIRLY MID DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO  
AROUND 70 WITH WINDS THAT ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST  
WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS COME AND  
GO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE  
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES ARE MUCH LOWER TODAY AS GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE AT 700MB OR ABOVE WITH 20-  
30 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THEM TODAY.  
TONIGHT, THE MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND LOWS IN THE 30S.  
 
TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY, BUT SHIFT CLOSER  
TO THE AREA. WITH IT, WARMER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA  
AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT MORE AS THE MOISTURE STREAM SHIFTS EAST. WITH  
THIS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S, BUT  
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS NEAR 80 IF THE RIDGE AXIS AND  
WARMER AIR MOVE IN EARLIER IN THE DAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP  
A BIT FROM THE SOUTH AS LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM ALONG  
THE FRONT RANGE WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND SOME  
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED  
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH THE SOUTHERLY  
FLOW BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TOMORROW NIGHT, SKIES ARE  
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM  
IN THE 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND  
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH DEW TO THE LOWER  
PRESSURE DEVELOPING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
 
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM, WE CAN EXPECT A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
TO BUILD IN BEFORE A FEW TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH AN  
UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE IN.  
THURSDAY, WE EXPECT AN 850 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST WILL CAUSE A  
MODERATELY STRONG 850 MB LLJ TO FORM. THIS LLJ WILL START BRINGING  
IN DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES  
TO THE CWA. DURING THE MIDDAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE  
NORTHWESTERN CWA, A BYPRODUCT OF THE FIRST TROUGH. THIS WILL DISRUPT  
THE SOUTHWESTERLY "FURNACE" WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN  
CWA, LEADING TO A GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.  
AROUND YUMA, CO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 80. IN THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CWA, WHERE THE FURNACE WINDS WILL NOT BE DISRUPTED,  
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S, POTENTIALLY LOW 90S,  
LEADING TO A CHANCE AT BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. AS ABR  
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE MARCH RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURE AT GOODLAND (90 IN 1907) ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO  
BE BROKEN. THE NBM PERCENTILES ARE SUGGESTING THE NORTHWESTERN  
CWA CONTINUES TO RECEIVE THE FURNACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY,  
AND EVEN THE NBM 5% IS WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH  
THAT IN MIND, THERE A ~20% CHANCE THE ENTIRE CWA WARMS INTO AT  
LEAST THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIM (~5%) CHANCE ISOLATED  
STORMS COULD FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MAY  
INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR THE LLJ IS BRINGING IN. SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
FRIDAY, LOOKS TO BE A WEAKER REPEAT OF THURSDAY AS A LARGE UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES  
STILL LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 80S, BUT THE ORIGIN OF THE LLJ WILL HAVE  
SHIFTED EASTWARD, PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CURRENT  
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, CMC-NH, AND GEFS SHOW THIS MOISTURE  
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, MOST LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA TO  
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT IMPACTS US WILL BE A  
FAIRLY WEAK PRE-TROUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOOKS TO WORK ITS MAGIC  
SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE  
LEE LOW WILL FORM AROUND NORTHERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST  
INTO THE AREA. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY (50-60%)  
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT HAVING  
STORMS AS WE WILL HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW'S COLD  
FRONT. THIS SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE  
NORTHWEST AND THEN EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT HITS THE LLJ. THIS  
WILL HELP WRAP AROUND A LOT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN  
CWA. 6Z RUN OF THE NAM AT 18Z FRIDAY SHOWS DISORGANIZED WINDS, BUT  
OVER 1,000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE, MEANING THERE'S ABOUT A 2-5%  
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE SHEAR IS GREATLY LIMITING IT.  
 
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FLOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN  
CWA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE  
TEENS IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 25. THIS  
INCREASES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT THE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY  
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS GUSTS, LOWERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERALL.  
THERE'S ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT LESS  
THAN A 10% CHANCE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE HIT.  
 
LIKELY WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT LOW EXITING THE  
AREA, THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FORM ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL LEE LOW FOLLOWING  
A SIMILAR PATH, POTENTIALLY SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS  
LOW. THIS WILL IMPACT THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. WHILE THERE  
WILL STILL BE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR THIS LOW TO TAP INTO,  
OUR CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER. WHILE WE WILL START THIS LOW  
OFF WITH RAIN, WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO MIX IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. AS IT STANDS, WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE  
EVENT AND TEMPERATURES BARELY COOLING UNDER FREEZING, WE ARE NOT  
EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE IS A ~10% CHANCE PATCHY BLACK ICE  
COULD FORM IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S DUE TO  
THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. SUNDAY, FOR THE SAME REASONS  
AND ADDITIONAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING, WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S.  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AS PREVIOUSLY ELUDED TO, WILL COOL TO AROUND  
30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.  
 
MONDAY WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA, BEFORE YET  
ANOTHER LEE LOW FORMS. CONFIDENCE ON WHAT THIS FINAL LEE LOW WILL DO  
IS VERY LOW. WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE  
WILL BLOCK OFF ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING INTO THE CWA,  
LEADING TO A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW. OVERALL, THIS  
LOOKS TO KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM SUNDAY,  
ALBEIT WITH LESS POPS.  
 
LIST OF ACRONYMS  
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS  
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM  
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM  
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS  
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE  
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION  
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET  
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
FROPA - FRONTAL PASSAGE  
CAPE - CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY  
QPF - QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST  
MB - MILLIBAR  
KTS - KNOTS  
J - JOULES  
KG - KILOGRAM  
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)  
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA  
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
 
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 27  
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH  
GOODLAND 1988 87 84  
HILL CITY 1989 85 89  
BURLINGTON 2004 86 81  
MCCOOK 1962 82 85  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28  
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH  
GOODLAND 1963 89 86  
HILL CITY 1963 90 86  
BURLINGTON 1962 83 83  
MCCOOK 1963 86 87  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...KAK  
LONG TERM...CA  
AVIATION...024  
CLIMATE...CA  
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