366
FXUS63 KGLD 010914
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
314 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST CO AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS-NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 36.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND
WALLACE, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
- STRONG NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THU NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-40 MPH AND GUSTS
~55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW (TODAY-TONIGHT): SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ASHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES (THIS AFTERNOON) AND
CENTRAL PLAINS (TONIGHT), THEN LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES (THU). AN ASSOCIATED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON, TRACK EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THU.
TODAY-TONIGHT: CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSES
THE 4-CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL FOSTER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY (20-30 MPH G 40 MPH) SSE TO S WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING IR SATELLITE TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
VIA RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS, HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THICK,
PERVASIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA..
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS /STRATUS/
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT/WIND FIELDS (AND HORIZONTAL THERMAL ADVECTION)
IN THE GOODLAND CWA WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE RECENT 00-06Z 04/01 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS (OR PRESSURE MINIMA) MAY BE PRESENT WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE IN CO THIS AFTERNOON, THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PRIMARY LOW WILL BE CENTERED
SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF LIMON, AKRON AND YUMA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 50'S (MCCOOK/NORTON) TO
LOWER-MID 60'S ELSEWHERE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA
CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
EASTERN CO ~21Z AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE BY ~03Z. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
SUGGEST A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION ~23-01Z IN YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTIES, WHERE THE
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF BRIEF/TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT, AFTER
~03Z, PRECIP CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED ALONG/NORTH OF THE
KS-NE BORDER AND WILL END FROM WEST-TO-EAST BY SUNRISE THU
MORNING.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW (THU-THU NIGHT): A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NW TONIGHT WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THU-THU NIGHT. A BROAD ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THU AFT-EVE AND
TRACK EAST INTO CENTRAL KS THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING.
THURSDAY: EARLY MORNING COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CYCLONE WILL ABATE BY MID-LATE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL FOLLOW, DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS THE
MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT REORIENTS/TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS / LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN COLORADO.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 70-80F, WARMEST SOUTH OF
HWY 40. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES (CO) AND WALLACE, GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES (KS), WHERE SSW TO S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 MPH AND RH READINGS WILL BOTTOM-OUT ~15% DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION OF THOSE
CONDITIONS IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG
WARNING, AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT: BREEZY TO STRONG NNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
LEE CYCLONE PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL KS. 00Z 04/01 GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ~35-45 KNOT NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT WITHIN A SHALLOW (~2,000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF THIS IS THE CASE, ONE WOULD
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-40 MPH AND GUSTS ~55 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
A 500-MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WYOMING ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOOK TO INJECT DRY AIR INTO THE CWA, WITH THE NBM
SUGGESTING A 40-50% CHANCE OF SINGLE- DIGIT DEWPOINTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-TEENS AND WIND GUSTS 25-40 KTS (28-46 MPH) FORECAST.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE HEAVILY DRIVEN BY WIND
IN THIS CASE, AS BOTH NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE GIVE OVER AN 80%
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA, WITH NBM 50TH PERCENTILE SURFACE WIND GUSTS ALREADY 30
MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, LREF
GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
HITTING CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WEST- CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE NAM CURRENTLY FORECASTING UP TO 150 J/KG OF
MUCAPE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. WHILE PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS CONVECTION COULD HINDER THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER, IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT THAT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. DRY
LIGHTNING IN YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN,
AS IT COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTER. THE BEST
SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENT TO NOT OCCUR WOULD BE IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD COOL FURTHER FROM THE COLD FRONT OR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, WHICH WOULD INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS HIGHEST FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 25%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-50S TO MID-60S,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-20S.
TROUGHING MAY STILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS STILL IN PLACE. COOLER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS NOT YET A CONCERN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS 25-35 MPH WIND
GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
UPPER-TEENS. LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS UP TO A 50% CHANCE OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO MEET THRESHOLDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO, BUT LESS THAN
25% ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN COLORADO. IF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COULD DROP A FEW MORE POINTS, THEN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN. THIS WOULD OCCUR IF
SURFACE WINDS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THAN
THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST
INFLUENTIAL OF THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTED OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA. WARMER CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID-70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER COULD ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER-TEENS MONDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING 20-25 MPH GUSTS
SUNDAY, AND 25-30 MPH GUSTS MONDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND
A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY, AND 60-70%
CHANCE ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY AT THIS RANGE IS AROUND 10%, AS FORECAST
GUSTS AND RH VALUES ARE BARELY MEETING CRITERIA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTED OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO TRAVERSE
THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY, ALLOWING A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ENTER THE INTERIOR UNITED
STATES. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S ACROSS THE
CWA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES MAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH ITS IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY UNCLEAR DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. AROUND HALF OF THE
GEFS MEMBERS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THIS SYSTEM, WHEREAS 75% OF EC MEMBERS
POINT TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST WITH FURTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
RISKS. AS SUCH, WEDNESDAY COULD BE A MULTI-HAZARD DAY, WHERE
THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED IN THE FORECAST REGION IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY BETWEEN ~22-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE 06Z TAF, ~06-12Z THU. E WINDS AT ~10 KNOTS
WILL VEER TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE SSE AND INCREASE
TO 20-30 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN CO DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(~02-03Z THU) AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE LATE EVENING,
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (~06-12Z THU).
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON (~21Z), WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BY/AROUND SUNSET. CEILINGS MAY FURTHER DETERIORATE TO LIFR
DURING THE LATE EVENING, AT/NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ~23-04Z. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE (~13Z). WINDS WILL
FURTHER VEER TO THE ESE-SE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CO DEEPENS AND
TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER. BREEZY SE WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE E AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE EVENING, AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD OVER WESTERN KS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (~06-12Z THU).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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