926  
FXUS63 KGLD 131149  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
549 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021  
 
THE FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS ON THE  
UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THAT  
BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS REGION TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND BRINGS A  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ACROSS THE REGION  
TONIGHT. THAT INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THAT BEGINS AS A LIGHT RAIN AND  
SNOW MIX THIS EVENING AND CHANGES OVER TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW BY  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO A LIGHT RAIN AND  
SNOW MIX AS IT TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL REINITIATE OVER THE WEST WEDNESDAY  
EVENING AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK OVER TO ALL  
LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER  
50S.  
 
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER THAT HAS REMAINED WEST OF THE ROCKIES  
AS PART OF A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE  
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  
RAMP UP DURING THIS TIME WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO OCCUR FROM THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH AND GO  
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND  
THEN TO MAINLY ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS  
FAIRLY LOW IN THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL  
AMOUNTS DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN  
INCH OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD  
APPROACH THREE INCHES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL  
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEYOND THAT TIME.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021  
 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ALOFT  
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY,  
DELIVERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY,  
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. THE  
TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LARGELY DRY WEATHER RETURNS IN TIME  
FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
ON SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
UPPER TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW  
CHANCES TO EASTERN COLORADO, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS  
TIME. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY (DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE  
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE EXITS THE AREA) AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE COMES INTO POOR AGREEMENT FOR  
MONDAY. ULTIMATELY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE  
THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN  
THE LINE. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST IS DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW RAIN  
SHOWERS IN EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY START TO THE LONG TERM, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE  
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO  
FOLLOW, AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MONDAY.  
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT TUE APR 13 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY  
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS  
TONIGHT WITH LOWER CEILINGS EXPECTED BEYOND THE END OF THE 12Z TAF  
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO, BUT REMAIN LOW ENOUGH  
TO EXCLUDE THEM FROM THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART  
LONG TERM...JBH  
AVIATION...LOCKHART  
 
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