498
FXUS63 KGLD 251709
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1109 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
RECORD HIGHS TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (HIGHS
25 - 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), POTENTIALLY EVEN APPROACHING
MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THE AREA CURRENTLY REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT CONTINUES
TO BRING IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS PRODUCING CLOUD
COVER. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH THIS, THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE A FAIRLY MID DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
AROUND 70 WITH WINDS THAT ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS COME AND
GO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES ARE MUCH LOWER TODAY AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE AT 700MB OR ABOVE WITH 20-
30 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THEM TODAY.
TONIGHT, THE MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY, BUT SHIFT CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WITH IT, WARMER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT MORE AS THE MOISTURE STREAM SHIFTS EAST. WITH
THIS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO AT LEAST THE MID 70S, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME AREAS NEAR 80 IF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
WARMER AIR MOVE IN EARLIER IN THE DAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP
A BIT FROM THE SOUTH AS LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND SOME
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TOMORROW NIGHT, SKIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM
IN THE 40S AND 50S DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH DEW TO THE LOWER
PRESSURE DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM, WE CAN EXPECT A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO BUILD IN BEFORE A FEW TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE IN.
THURSDAY, WE EXPECT AN 850 MB HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST WILL CAUSE A
MODERATELY STRONG 850 MB LLJ TO FORM. THIS LLJ WILL START BRINGING
IN DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
TO THE CWA. DURING THE MIDDAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA, A BYPRODUCT OF THE FIRST TROUGH. THIS WILL DISRUPT
THE SOUTHWESTERLY "FURNACE" WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA, LEADING TO A GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
AROUND YUMA, CO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 80. IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA, WHERE THE FURNACE WINDS WILL NOT BE DISRUPTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S, POTENTIALLY LOW 90S,
LEADING TO A CHANCE AT BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. AS ABR
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE MARCH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT GOODLAND (90 IN 1907) ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE BROKEN. THE NBM PERCENTILES ARE SUGGESTING THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA CONTINUES TO RECEIVE THE FURNACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
AND EVEN THE NBM 5% IS WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH
THAT IN MIND, THERE A ~20% CHANCE THE ENTIRE CWA WARMS INTO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 80S. THERE IS A SLIM (~5%) CHANCE ISOLATED
STORMS COULD FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MAY
INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR THE LLJ IS BRINGING IN. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
FRIDAY, LOOKS TO BE A WEAKER REPEAT OF THURSDAY AS A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 80S, BUT THE ORIGIN OF THE LLJ WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EASTWARD, PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, CMC-NH, AND GEFS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, MOST LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE THAT IMPACTS US WILL BE A
FAIRLY WEAK PRE-TROUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOOKS TO WORK ITS MAGIC
SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
LEE LOW WILL FORM AROUND NORTHERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY (50-60%)
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE AT HAVING
STORMS AS WE WILL HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW'S COLD
FRONT. THIS SATURDAY NIGHT LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT HITS THE LLJ. THIS
WILL HELP WRAP AROUND A LOT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA. 6Z RUN OF THE NAM AT 18Z FRIDAY SHOWS DISORGANIZED WINDS, BUT
OVER 1,000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE, MEANING THERE'S ABOUT A 2-5%
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE SHEAR IS GREATLY LIMITING IT.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FLOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
CWA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 25. THIS
INCREASES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT THE WINDS LOOK TO GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS GUSTS, LOWERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVERALL.
THERE'S ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGER, BUT LESS
THAN A 10% CHANCE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE HIT.
LIKELY WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT LOW EXITING THE
AREA, THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FORM ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL LEE LOW FOLLOWING
A SIMILAR PATH, POTENTIALLY SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
LOW. THIS WILL IMPACT THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE OUR MAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCER. WHILE THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR THIS LOW TO TAP INTO,
OUR CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER. WHILE WE WILL START THIS LOW
OFF WITH RAIN, WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO MIX IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS IT STANDS, WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE
EVENT AND TEMPERATURES BARELY COOLING UNDER FREEZING, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE IS A ~10% CHANCE PATCHY BLACK ICE
COULD FORM IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. SUNDAY, FOR THE SAME REASONS
AND ADDITIONAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING, WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AS PREVIOUSLY ELUDED TO, WILL COOL TO AROUND
30 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
MONDAY WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA, BEFORE YET
ANOTHER LEE LOW FORMS. CONFIDENCE ON WHAT THIS FINAL LEE LOW WILL DO
IS VERY LOW. WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BLOCK OFF ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING INTO THE CWA,
LEADING TO A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS TO KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FAIRLY PERSISTENT FROM SUNDAY,
ALBEIT WITH LESS POPS.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
NBM - NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS
GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM
GEFS - GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ECMWF - EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
CMC-NH - CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
POP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
LLJ - LOW LEVEL JET
RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FROPA - FRONTAL PASSAGE
CAPE - CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
QPF - QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MB - MILLIBAR
KTS - KNOTS
J - JOULES
KG - KILOGRAM
Z - ZULU TIME (UTC)
CWA - COUNTY WARNING AREA
CONUS - CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 27
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1988 87 84
HILL CITY 1989 85 89
BURLINGTON 2004 86 81
MCCOOK 1962 82 85
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 28
LOCATION OLD RECORD YEAR OLD RECORD FORECAST HIGH
GOODLAND 1963 89 86
HILL CITY 1963 90 86
BURLINGTON 1962 83 83
MCCOOK 1963 86 87
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...CA
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