541
FXUS63 KGLD 120846
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL WINDOW FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TODAY NEAR YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTY BORDER.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- THREAT FOR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON INCREASING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 156 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH CWA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE, A 997 MB LOW WAS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING,
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LOW LAYING BETWEEN
YUMA AND HOLYOKE COLORADO AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF
THE CWA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER
THREAT TODAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WSW WINDS AND TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BRING
A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOW THAT PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE
CONCURRENT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS TODAY. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS
TO OCCUR DURING THE 15-19Z PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES INTO
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT LLJ. WITH EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION HAVE
NOTICED HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST A SMALL AREA OF STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS KIT CARSON COUNTY, SEEMINGLY AIDED BY ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE
WARMING ALONG PALMER DIVIDE. THIS IS SUPPORTED TO VARIOUS
DEGREES BY OTHER GUIDANCE AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS (30-35KTS) PRIOR TO 18Z IN THIS AREA, WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY
AREA TO SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ALONG THE YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTY BORDER
EASTWARD TO ST. FRANCIS. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT THAT DURATION WILL
LAST 3 HOURS AND WITH GFDI VALUES ALSO STAYING BELOW "HIGH"
THINK BEST PLAN IS TO HIGHLIGHT AREA WITH FIRE WEATHER SPS AS
OPPOSED TO WARNING.
OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
REACHING THE I70 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. WHILE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND FRONT WILL
SATURATE QUICKLY AIDED BY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE PROFILE IS
VERY SHALLOW AND EXPECT PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FOG/DRIZZLE AND LOW
STRATUS BY SUNRISE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REALLY RAMPS UP DURING
THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS REGION AND RESULTING IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. MODEL
FORECAST SPREADS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY ARE QUITE LARGE WITH
FORECAST SPREAD OF 15 TO 30 DEGREES WITH RESPECT TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS. WHILE THERE ARE NO CERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO MODEL
PERFORMANCE, GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW
STRONG COLD FRONTS, THINK MORE WEIGHT SHOULD BE GIVEN TO THE
COLDER SOLUTIONS AS THESE TYPE OF FRONTS TEND END UP FURTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. WHILE NOT EXPECTED CURRENTLY, COLDER TAIL
OF OVERNIGHT LOW GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST FROST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREA. THIS
THREAT IS LOW (5-10%) BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.
ASIDE FROM THE BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED, CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH BEST
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE
FURTHER SOUTH/COLDER SOLUTIONS WILL GENERALLY KEEP POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY EVENING, BRING A
THREAT FOR LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD CLOSELY HOWEVER AS A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WOULD NOT ONLY
BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STRONG AND DEEP WAA WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CLOSED H5 LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAXIMIZING OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES OVER ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AM CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY SOMEWHAT BE SPLIT TO THE EAST
AND NORTHWEST OF AREA, AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING AND SATURATED CONDITIONS, DRY SLOT
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE AHEAD OF LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION, IT WILL ALSO KEEP PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
OUTSIDE OF THOSE STORMS TO BE SHALLOW AND MORE CONDUCIVE TO
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. REGARDLESS OF THIS CONCERN, CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGH BUT NOT EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE
ANYWHERE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS STORMS WITH TOTALS LIKELY IN THE
0.1 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONFIDENT ON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
THURSDAY TO START THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, PLACING US IN STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DECENT JET STREAK IS
ANTICIPATED TO PRESENT OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROSSBY WAVE. FURTHERMORE, A SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
PATTERN LIKELY CHANGES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD, BRINGING US INTO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW.
MOVING FORWARD, WEAK RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY SHIFTING 300-
500MB FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST. SAID RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY, PLACING THE TRI-STATE AREA RIGHT BACK IN
SOUTHWEST FLOWING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THURSDAY (10-
25%), PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW
(<5%) THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS LOW CHANCE (25%) FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM ALOFT
USHERS IN COOL/DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES UPPER
50S INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL
NOT LAST AS THE SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS OFF A WARMING
TREND THAT RAISES HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AS WELL
AS MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE SECTION, LOW
CONFIDENCE (20-30%) EXISTS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS NEAR OR WEST OF K-27.
FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SO
TRENDS REGARDING SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. RH IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE INTO THE UPPER TEENS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. RH VALUES
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 20-40% DURING THE DAY ELSEWHERE IN THE
CWA. WINDS ORIGINALLY COME ON STRONG THURSDAY AT 20-35 MPH, GUSTING
30-50 MPH FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAYS WINDS LIKELY WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WEAKER AT 10-20 MPH, ALSO FROM THE NORTH, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE DAYS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER. SATURDAY'S WINDS WILL VARY AROUND THE REGION
15-25 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AND GUSTING 20-35 MPH. TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND, SUNDAY'S WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT (5-10 MPH) SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND GUSTING UP TO 15 MPH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS AT BOTH SITES, AND WILL PERSIST TO A LITTLE
BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SMALL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
PRIMARILY AFFECT KMCK DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST BEGINNING AROUND 23Z AS THIS FRONT COMES
THROUGH, SUSTAINING AROUND 10-15 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...AMP/JRM
AVIATION...DAVIS
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