965
FXUS63 KGLD 310604
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MONDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO MONTANA ALLOWING
A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING UP THE RIDGE AXIS FROM COLORADO,
BUT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S IT WILL BE TOO
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS, BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
SETTLES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS SHOW A LOW DEEPENING ON
THE FRONT MONDAY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH THE RESULTANT
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL ADVECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AS FAR
WEST AS THE FRONT RANGE. A WEAK WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, POSSIBLY PHASING WITH ONE TRAVERSING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW STILL IN MONTANA, WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN TWO AREAS: FIRST,
WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, AND SECOND, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN STORMS
WILL HAVE UP TO 2000 J/K OF SBCAPE TO WORK WITH AND 40-50 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAMS SOMEWHAT DIVIDED ON WHETHER THEY WILL
HAVE A MORE EASTERLY MOTION, KEEPING THEM SOUTH OF THE AREA, OR
NORTHEASTERLY, WHICH WOULD WOULD BRING THEM INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BY 00Z. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS, SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. BLOWING DUST AND
LOCALIZED DUST STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A FULL DAY OF
WARMING ON SUNDAY DRYING OUT TOP SOIL. DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OUT OF COLORADO,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AS THE CAMS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL DEVELOP. NONETHELESS,
MUCAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND RELATIVELY CALM.
THERE IS PRECIPATION CHANCES FOR THE DAY. THE MAIN TIMING LOOKS
TO BE IN THE EARLY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. CAPE IS THE RANGE OF
1000-1500 J/KG, WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
VERY LITTLE SEVERE CHANCES. LOOKING AT THE POPS THERE IS 50-60%
CHANCE. THERE IS ABOUT A 30-50% OF EXCEEDING 0.10". THE PWATS
FOR THE CWA SHOW 1"-1.30". LOOKING AT GFS SOUNDS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS DEEPLY SATURATED. ALSO LOOKING CORFIDI UP AND DOWNSHEAR
MAGNITUDE WOULD BE AROUND OR UNDER 30 KTS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
THE STORMS/SHOWERS WOULD BE SLOW-MOVING OR STATIONARY.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE WEEK, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE WILL KICK OUT SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. THIS DOES LOOK TO BE
ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS IT QUICKLY CRUMBLES AWAY COME WEDNESDAY. THEN
THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND
THERE ARE SIGNS OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT TO THE LOW 90S, AS THE UPPER PATTERN
TRANSITIONS. THE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50-60S RANGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY POPS ARE IN THE 20-60% RANGE DURING THE
EACH DAY'S AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SATURDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE TO 10-30%. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, THERE IS NO STRONG
SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING YET, BUT NOTHING CAN BE RULED OUT SINCE THIS IS
ABOUT 5-7 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA/HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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