161
FXUS63 KGLD 292301
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
501 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AGAIN THIS EVENING. A WIND GUST OR TWO UP TO
60 MPH IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH ANY
STORM. COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE LESSER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAYS.
- A DAILY POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS,
POTENTIALLY SEVERE, MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY THE FAVORED DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE LARGE H5 RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGE AXIS RUNNING NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOWING UP
WELL AT H4 POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS, WAS UNDERCUTTING RIDGE AND
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KS. AT THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM THE OK PANHANDLE EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS.
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GOODLAND AREA WITH 70
DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR WEST AS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CENTER ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY LINGERING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE
ANY REMAINING CINH THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH, POSITION OF LARGE SCALE H5 RIDGE
AND LACK OF ANY PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ZONES KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW
THAT ANY MEANINGFUL CONVECTION INITIATION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
EASTERN COLORADO. THINK SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN GRADUALLY
MORPHING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED MCS AS IT MOVES ACROSS AREA
OVERNIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DIMINISHING THE FURTHER EAST
YOU GO. WIND SHEAR, INSTABILITY AND EVEN DCAPE NOTICEABLY LOWER
TONIGHT THAN 24 HOURS AGO SO THINK SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD
MAINLY BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED MICROBURSTS IN AREAS WHERE LCLS ARE
RELATIVELY HIGH. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CHANGED
LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND BASED ON NEARBY RAOBS IT HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY. WITH DEEP WARM LAYER, SLOW EXPECTED STORM MOTION AND AMPLE
MOISTURE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY HAZARD
TONIGHT. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED IN A FEW SPOTS LAST NIGHT,
COVERAGE AND EXPECTED OVERLAP ARE RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT SO DO NOT
THINK A FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEEDED AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE,
DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, HOW LONG OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LINGERS
ON WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON HOW THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING, INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF IT, CONVERGENCE
ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO FORM IN WARM SECTOR BEFORE A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS DEVELOPS ALONG SFC FRONT OVERNIGHT.
BULK SHEAR INCREASES 10-20 KTS MORE THAN TODAY AND WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY PROFILES SHOULD SEE A LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AT THIS CURRENT TIME WOULD THINK WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE HIGHEST THREAT. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
SURGE IN WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH
RANGE, NOT EXPECTING AN ORGANIZED DUST THREAT GIVEN EARLY
MORNING TIMING.
FRIDAY...A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY IN STORE WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDING OVER THE AREA
DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 50S OR EVEN UPPER 40S BRINGING A
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HIGH HUMIDITY RECENTLY. DO NOT THINK THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL ALIGN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS HOWEVER, SO CONCERN
FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INSTABILITY
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, LIMITING ANY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO
EASTERN COLORADO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE HOT, DRY AND WINDY.
SATURDAY, WE START OFF IN A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 90S. SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S FOR THE WEEK WITH
SOME AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) REACHING THE 100S ON
MONDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP SUNDAY EVENING FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE
WESTERN CWA WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF WIND GUSTS. MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSAGES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OFF GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
12 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND 05Z. AFTER 05Z, THERE IS AROUND A 30%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE KGLD AREA BY 08Z. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. AFTER 08Z, WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SHIFT
TO GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 22Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...RHOADES
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