703
FXUS63 KGLD 050806
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS
KEEPING THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH THE GREATER FLOW
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFIED INTO CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS HAS LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR TODAY, CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A RELATIVE LACK
OF FEATURES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE PULLING EAST AND A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
PLAINS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AND WINDS INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-
20 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE. THERE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. WHILE THE
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DOES SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH RH
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20%. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD NEAR 80 OR REACH THE LOWER 80S.
MID TO UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR THE LOW ADVANCES EAST.
TONIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY LOWER CLOSER TO 5-10 MPH. WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY, WE SHOULD STAY MIXED AND HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
CLOSER TO SUNRISE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TOWARDS THE LOW
TO MID 50S SHOULD THE WINDS LOWER UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN ISN'T FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH SHORT OF
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
AREA, BUT BROADEN IT OUT AND KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE DAY, WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. THE CLOUDS
HOWEVER, ARE FORECAST TO DO LITTLE TO HELP WITH TEMPERATURES AS MOST
OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDERNEATH THE
LOW. A FEW 90S WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE DEPENDING ON HOW THICK AND
WIDESPREAD THE CLOUD COVER IS.
LATER TUESDAY, THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT TRY AND FIRE UP WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE AREA.
BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL FORCING REMAINING WEAK KEEPS
THE CHANCES AROUND 10% OR LESS. SO MORE THAN LIKELY, CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY. BEGINNING AROUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST, TRANSITIONING UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO COME FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW SHORTWAVES COULD MOVE THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA) OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S
AND 80S THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) REMAIN BELOW 10% THROUGH
SUNDAY, THOUGH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD INCREASE
CHANCES IF THE SHORTWAVES STRENGTHEN.
WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY BE SOUTHERLY AT 5-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, BREEZIER AFTERNOONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE 20%
FOR MOST OF THE CWA, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS IN THE COLORADO COUNTIES MAY REQUIRE MONITORING ON
SATURDAY, AS RH VALUES APPROACH 20% ALONGSIDE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHICH COULD LOWER RH VALUES FURTHER AND
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. THE
CANADIAN-NH, ECMWF-HIRES, AND GFS ALL SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
AROUND 550 DAM, ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC-NORTHWEST AND SETTING
UP OVER THE ROCKIES NEAR IDAHO. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD SEE THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HOWEVER, IF THE TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL SHIFT LATER INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS STARTING AROUND 5-10 KTS. AFTER ~15Z, SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...KAK
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