103
FXUS63 KGLD 081704
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1004 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
POTENTIAL FOR REFREEZE/BLACK ICE FORMATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- SNOW WILL BECOME MORE COMMON TONIGHT AND WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY
MIDDAY. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE UNDER 3 INCHES, BUT GUSTS OF
40+ MPH LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY MORNING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL.
- WIND CHILLS AROUND 0F ARE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
OUR WINTRY SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DRIVING 850 MB LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING AS IT PULLS IN MOISTURE. AT 500 MB, THE BULK OF THE
VORTICITY WILL STACK ON TOP OF THE 850 MB LOW, LEADING TO EFFICIENT
FORCING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION OFF AND ON
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY.
THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WILL BE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SECOND WAVE
WILL BE PRIMARILY OCCUR BETWEEN 0-12Z TONIGHT.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE 0C WET BULB ISOTHERM WILL BE AROUND 50-100
MB ABOVE THE SURFACE, LEADING TO A MELTING LAYER AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, THE 0C WET BULB WILL BE SLOWLY DESCENDING. P-TYPE FOR THE
DAY WILL BE RAIN WITH SOME FLURRIES MIXED IN, WITH SNOW BECOMING
MORE COMMON AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES, THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL
LIKELY BECOME SNOW AS THE HIGH SNOWFALL RATE PREVENTS MELTING NEAR
THE SURFACE.
COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE SNOW TO BE THE
MAIN P-TYPE. EXACT TIMING FOR WHEN RAIN WILL BE FULLY PHASED OUT IS
VERY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CAA AND HOW MOIST
THIS CAA WILL BE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND 22-0Z, THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL ONLY BE SEEING SNOW AND BY 4-6Z, THE ENTIRE
CWA WILL BE RAIN FREE.
RAIN BEFORE THE SNOW DOES PRESENT A REFREEZE/ICING THREAT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR
BLACK ICE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
RECENT GUIDANCE FROM HREF, REFS, NBM, AND SREF ARE SHOWING THE
SECOND WAVE WILL WEAKER AS DRY AIR MOVES IN, PREVENTING MUCH
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE SECOND WAVE, POPS ARE LOWERING, DOWN TO
AROUND 50% FROM THE 75%+ 12 HOURS AGO. QPF IS ALSO COMING DOWN A
BIT, BUT THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE MODELS. IF DRY AIR MOVES IN,
EASTERN COLORADO WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE
REST OF THE CWA WOULD LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. IF WE
REMAIN SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN, EASTERN COLORADO WILL LIKELY
SEE AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW, CLOSER TO 3 INCHES NEAR THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER, AND THE REST OF THE CWA SEEING 0.5-2 INCHES OF SNOW.
WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP AROUND 30 KTS WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE SOME POCKETS OF
<1 MILE VISIBILITY TODAY IN BLOWING SNOW, MOST LIKELY NEAR GOVE AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. TOMORROW, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER, LIKELY
AROUND 35 KTS IN EASTERN COLORADO. IF SNOW IS STILL ONGOING AROUND
15-22Z, WHICH THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE IT WILL BE, BLOWING SNOW WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
SNOWFALL STILL OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME IS PREVENTING AN ADVISORY
FROM BEING ISSUED.
BY SATURDAY 0Z, ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ENDED, EVEN IN
THE MOIST CASE. THE NORTHERN WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN DRY,
COOL AIR. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT THE SKIES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
COOL INTO THE TEENS, WITH EASTERN COLORADO DROPPING TO AROUND 10
DEGREES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHILLS AROUND 0F THANKS TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN THE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS WE GET A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN AT THE SURFACE
WITH SOME EASTERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BETWEEN
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD AND MOSTLY DRY
PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL AREA WITH A FEW WINDY DAYS.
THAT BEING SAID, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW, WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT QUITE AS
BULLISH, BUT STILL SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. NEITHER MODEL SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION, IF IT
OCCURS AT ALL, WILL BE IMPACTFUL.
AS FOR THE WIND, SATURDAY WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF BLOWING DUST, BUT WITH THE PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WIND SPEEDS THAT MIGHT NOT QUITE REACH
FULL POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE IS LACKING IN BLOWING DUST FOR THE
TIME BEING. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE WIND (SUNDAY AND
MONDAY), NBM STATISTICAL OUTPUT HAS NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
40-55 MPH ON TUESDAY AND 45-65 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE
PROBABILITIES FOR THE HIGH-END GUSTS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME, IT IS
A SIGNAL THAT BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY BE WINDY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS ARE WELL ABOVE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS
DESPITE THE WINDY CONDITIONS, THOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS ARE WELL
WITHIN RANGE FOR BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS A FEW 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT BE ALERT FOR CEILINGS TO POTENTIALLY DIP BETWEEN
1500-3000FT THROUGH 21Z. LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALSO BEFORE 21Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS UNTIL ABOUT
23Z. WINDS SHOULD THEN LOWER TO AROUND 5-10 KTS. FINALLY, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ICING THROUGH ABOUT 01Z UNTIL TEMPERATURES
COMPLETELY GO BELOW FREEZING AND SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page