334
FXUS63 KGLD 200418
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
918 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
- A SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE TRI-STATE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE EARLIER THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME BREEZY
WINDS (OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH) DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING WINDS WILL
TEND TO DECREASE THROUGH SUNSET. DAYTIME RGB SATELLITE PRODUCTS
SHOWS THE REGIONS THAT RECEIVED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1"+) FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE ACROSS KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND
THEN SOUTHWEST WALLACE AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THIS REGION
WILL FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AND
TRADITIONAL COLDER SPOTS IN VALLEYS MAY DROP CLOSER TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVERNIGHT THAN TEENS LIKE A LARGER PART OF THE REGION.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LEE TROUGHING LATER TONIGHT-TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WAA INTO THE
TRI-STATE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 50S, THOUGH THEY MAY BE
DEPRESSED A LITTLE MORE IN REGIONS OF SNOW COVER. THIS REGION
THAT RECEIVED SNOW MAY ALSO HAVE MITIGATED OR DELAYED RESPONSES IN
FINER FUELS UNTIL SNOW MELTS TUESDAY FACTORING INTO LOCATIONS THAT
ARE AT RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS OF NOW CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH LOWERED POTENTIAL
TUESDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
THE PROGRESSION AND RE-DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW IN CANADA
WILL HOLD A DOMINANT INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL US
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED, AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH MUCH MORE VARIABLE TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES RELATED TO THE DIRECTION OF FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/FRONTS. THE DEEPEST ARCTIC AIR
MAY REMAIN FARTHER WEST, BUT OUR REGION MAY STILL HAVE PERIODIC
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS PATTERN THAT BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS EITHER FROM COLD OR ACCUMULATING SNOW
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SNOW POTENTIAL: A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS
BETWEEN THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW CLOSER TO OUR REGION AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST US
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DIVING SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS. A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER KS AND WITHIN THE
COMPLICATED INTERACTION OF THESE WAVES AN AN EVENTUAL ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE THE SIGNAL IS INCREASING FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A CHANCE FOR
WARNING IMPACTS (PWSSI IS 30% SOUTH OF I-70) DRIVEN BY THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER THAN 6" OF SNOWFALL WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION EVENTUAL LINE UP. THE SCENARIOS THAT BRING THE POTENTIAL
HIGHER TOTALS (GREATER THAN 6") ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DEEPER MOIST
FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE TO BE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE THE NORTHERN
WAVE ARRIVES, WITH DEEP SATURATION AND WAA WITHIN THE DGZ SUPPORTIVE
OF BROAD/HIGH RATES OF SNOWFALL. A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF ENSEMBLES
MEMBERS AND RELATED CLUSTERS FAVOR THIS REMAINING JUST SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FAVORING LIGHTER SNOW IN OUR REGION. AS HIGHER WINDS DO
NOT APPEAR TO ALIGN WITH THE PERIODS OF SNOW IN EITHER SCENARIO THE
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRIVEN BY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS/RATES.
THIS IS A MORE RECENT TREND WITH THE UP-TICK IN PROBABILITIES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 915 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
LIKELY GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
AROUND 23-01Z, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH, FAIRLY
QUICKLY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO BE NORTHERLY AND GUST AROUND
20 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
DRIER/WARM FLOW AND INCREASED MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND TDS DROPPING AS LOW AS THE SINGLED DIGITS TO TEENS
(LOWEST TDS IN THE WEST), THOUGH TEMPS AND MIXING MAY BE COMPLICATED
OVER AREAS WITH SNOW PACK IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST, ALONG WITH,
INITIALLY WETTER FUELS. IF SNOW MELTS EARLY ENOUGH FINER ONE HOUR
FUELS MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RESPOND TO FALLING RH VALUES IN
THOSE AREAS TUESDAY, BUT IN GENERAL THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING.
WESTERN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS OF SNOW PACK ARE LIKELY TO
SEE RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT RAISING AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF WINDS WERE TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH OVER A LONG ENOUGH DURATION.
BROADER LEE TROUGHING RESULTS IN WEAKER SURFACE GRADIENT OVER OUR
REGION, SO DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MIXING HEIGHTS AND MAX
FLOW ALOFT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES INCREASE IN IN THE 850MB
LAYER TO THE 20-30KT RANGE, THOUGH THE LLJ IS NOT UNIFORM ACROSS THE
REGION. AS LOCATIONS REACH PEAK MIXING SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW THE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIX LAYER AROUND 20 MPH, WITH ONLY PERIODIC
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THESE GUSTS
MAY LIMIT IMPACTS AND ONLY BRIEF/LOCALIZED AREAS MAY TOUCH ON
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT/DR
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