395
FXUS63 KGLD 232318
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS; 70S LOOK TO RETURN
TUESDAY, GROOVY.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING DUST OR PRECIPITATION.
- INCREASED CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
TODAY, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
EXTENDING IT'S SHIELD OVER THE THE TRI-STATE AREA, UNTIL
TOMORROW. THIS WILL PROMOTE MILD AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 60S TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S WITH SOME LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BEING SO WARM, RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS, AS RH
VALUES APPROACH 10%. HOWEVER, WINDS IN THIS AREA LOOK TO REMAIN
BELOW 17 KTS, MINIMIZING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA, WINDS COULD GUST UP AROUND 25 KTS FOR A FEW
HOURS TOMORROW MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS, BUT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, LOWER
DEW POINTS COULD MIX DOWN AND LOWER RH VALUES TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IN BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SITS AT AROUND 40% WITH CONFIDENCE
IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING ABOUT 25%.
WEDNESDAY IS WHEN THE RIDGE PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK AS OUR NEXT
UPPER- LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE 500 MB / 310K JET/FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, OVER THE CWA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THIS IS IMPORTANT, BECAUSE THIS FEATURE
WILL CAUSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO FORM AS IT PUSHES
COLDER AIR INTO THE WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THESE
CLOUDS INTRODUCE A MAJOR LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. IF THE CLOUDS
STICK AROUND ALL DAY AND WE REMAIN OVERCAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 60S, MINIMIZING HAZARDS LATER IN THE
DAY. IF WE'RE ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S, AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AFTER ABOUT 3Z, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE INSTABILITY WILL HAVE BEEN DEPLETED, AND STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
FOLLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LESS THAN 0.05" OF QPF IS
EXPECTED IN THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF THE SKY IS CLEAR NEARLY
ALL OF THE DAY, DUST WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.
THIS LOW COULD PUSH TWO SURFACE FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION,
SIMILAR TO LAST TUESDAY, OR ONE VERY STRONG FRONT THROUGH. IF
THERE ARE TWO FRONTS, THE FIRST WOULD BE A WARM FRONT OCCURRING
AROUND 18-21Z, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY RISING TEMPERATURES, BUT NOT A LOT OF
WIND. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WOULD REDUCE, BUT NOT ELIMINATE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THE SECOND FRONT WOULD BE BETWEEN
21-03Z, SHIFTING WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS IS
THE FRONT THAT WOULD HAVE STRONGER WINDS, AND COULD PRODUCE RAIN
OR BLOWING DUST. IF JUST ONE FRONT OCCURS, IT WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND 20-01Z AND BE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
IF CONVECTION OCCURS, IT WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 36 AND BE QUICKLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. GFS AND
NAMNEST GUIDANCE SHOW INVERTED V SOUNDINGS, SATURATING AROUND
700 MB. THIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING OR A DRY MICRO-
BURST. THE MICRO- BURST POTENTIAL IS LESSENED BY THE FACT THAT
EBWD SHEAR IS AROUND 45 KTS, HIGHER THAN IDEAL FOR DRY MICRO-
BURSTS.
IF NO PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AHEAD/WITH
THE FRONT CLIMB INTO THE 8.5-10 C/KM AS 30-50 KTS 850 MB WINDS
MIX TO THE SURFACE, BLOWING DUST BECOMES A CONCERN.
ADDITIONALLY, 2-2.5 KM LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO
LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 6 C/KM. THIS LEADS TO SOME CONCERN FOR
BLOWING DUST, INCLUDING A HABOOB, AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD FRONT LIKELY MOVING THROUGH CLOSE TO
SUNSET, THE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES MAY RAPIDLY RELAX, REDUCING THE
IMPACTS OF BLOWING DUST.
CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IS AROUND 30%, CONFIDENCE FOR LESS
THAN 1 MILE IN BLOWING DUST IS 20-30%. THERE IS ALSO A 2% CHANCE
THAT BOTH HAZARDS OCCUR IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
CONDITIONS ARE COOLER THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A RIDGE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD WEST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, BUT A MORE ZONAL POLAR JET OVER THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER IS KEEPING THE RIDGE FAIRLY SUBDUED. THIS PLACES OUR
REGION IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TEENS.
THESE WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY CREATE A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES,
PARTICULARLY YUMA COUNTY. WINDS WILL CALM OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE
IS LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY FOR OUR DEWPOINTS, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY, CONDITIONS FURTHER WARM AS A RIDGE PROPAGATES THROUGH
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WITH
WIND GUSTS FROM 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE. YUMA COUNTY IS LIKELY TO BE
ON THE HIGHEST END OF THESE WIND GUSTS.
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH WILL COOL
CONDITIONS. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COOL DOWN OUR REGION. THE NBM
75-25TH PERCENTILE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS AROUND 30
DEGREES. OUR REGION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WARMER SIDE. CURRENT
NBM PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 70% FOR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN
45 DEGREES F. CURRENTLY, FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S WITH SOME
AREAS IN THE LOW 60S. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY FOR THE
CWA WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES ARE BEGINNING
TO RECOVER FROM THE WEEK AND ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S, SO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION,
BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS, CREATING UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS HAS A
SPEEDIER SUBTROPICAL JET WITH A STRONGER JET STREAK THAT WANTS
TO MERGE WITH THE POLAR JET. THE ECMWF IS OVERALL MORE SUBDUED
WITH A WEAKER POLAR JET THAT STAYS SEGMENTED FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IS REFLECTED IN
THE LOW AND SOMEWHAT SPORADIC PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POPS RANGE FROM 10-30% AND ARE A
BIT SPORADIC THROUGHOUT THE CWA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST
SPECIFICS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND HOW FAR OUT
THIS EVENT IS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. S WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE W OVERNIGHT (~08Z TUE), AS A
MODEST LEE TROUGH IN CO ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO KS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE-NE AND
MODESTLY INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
(~22Z TUE).
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. S WINDS
AT 8-13 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE W THIS EVENING (~03Z TUE), AS A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH (EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN ND) ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING (~15Z TUE). OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO ~25 GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH/OPACITY OF
CIRRUS (EXTENT THAT UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFFECTS DIURNAL
HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING). WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE-NE
AROUND SUNSET TUE EVENING, NEAR THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page