837
FXUS63 KGLD 210513
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE 40S AS THE UPPER CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING WHERE A POCKET OF
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOCATED. THIS POCKET OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN UNABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE AREA AND IS LIKELY TO
DIFFUSE OUT GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR MASS ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE
TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW FOR
CALM WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AND HELP TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT ABOVE DEWPOINT THE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. TOWARDS SUNRISE, LOWER PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH.
TOMORROW, A 850-500MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LARGER
FLOW INTO THE ROCKIES AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS SHOULD INCREASE WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15-
25 MPH AS THE DAY GOES ON. AS FOR GUSTS, THE HEIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD
TIGHTEN AND ALLOW WINDS AT 850-700MB TO REACH 30-35 KTS, ALLOWING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO TODAY,
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER THE
AREA AND INHIBIT HOW MUCH WE MIX OUT. SO FOR NOW, GUSTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. SHOULD THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND GUSTS
GO MORE INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHES OF
BLOWING DUST. WHILE UNLIKELY TO DO MUCH TO VISIBILITY, SOME
REDUCTION IN AIR QUALITY MAY OCCUR. OVERALL CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST
TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES IS A BOUT 20% . TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRY TO
REACH THE 50S, BUT MAY STAY IN THE 40S IF THE CLOUD COVER IS THICK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 30%. EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID 50S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW
20S.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. AS IT DOES SO, WINDS
SHOULD LOWER BELOW 10 MPH AND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
CHRISTMAS WEEK CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. THE RIDGING
IS ALSO FORECAST TO KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY AND THURSDAY, DRAGGING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS/FRONTS THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS IS WHY TUESDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK. IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THEY LEAD TO ANYTHING IMPACTFUL, BUT WE CONTINUE TO
WATCH IF THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 MPH. IF SO, WITH THE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS, THERE COULD BE
CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THAT A
TROUGH WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS
THE AREA. IF/WHEN THIS TROUGH GETS CLOSE TO THE AREA, A STRONGER
SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS ON
TIMING AND INTENSITY, SO FOR NOW WE WAIT TO SEE WHAT WILL COME OUT
OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 KTS AT 500 FEET AGL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK BEFORE THE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE.
DURING THE DAY, BE AWARE OF GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS, BUT MOST
GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. THERE'S A CHANCE SOME BLOWING
DUST GETS KICKED UP, TOO. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AT SUNSET, AND KMCK
IS LIKELY TO SEE MORE LLWS AFTER 0Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2025
SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE
RESULTING IN LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS HOWEVER. A SUBTLE
INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS IN THE 850MB JET ACROSS KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IS SEEN WHICH IS STRONGER THAN WHAT
WAS SEEN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE HIGHEST
AT AROUND 1500-2000 FEET VERSUS LESS THAN 1000 FEET FURTHER
EAST. USING 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES MIXING THE
BEST THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 10% IN THAT STRONG OF WINDS BUT AROUND
20% FOR 25 MPH. BUT WE ARE IN THE TIME OF THE YEAR CLOSEST TO
THE WINTER SOLSTICE WHERE GETTING NUMEROUS HOURS OF STRONG
MIXING IS VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO SHORTER DURATION OF THE DAYS.
WITH THIS BEING SAID CONFIDENCE IN ONE HOUR OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS, AT LEAST LOCALIZED, IS AROUND 20-30% BUT GETTING 3
OR MORE HOURS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IS ONLY AROUND 10% AT THIS
TIME DUE TO CONCERNS OF HOW LONG CONDITIONS CAN OVERLAP FOR.
OVERALL CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY MODERATE TO HIGH AS
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS ACCORDING TO COUNTIES ON THE
COLORADO/KANSAS LINE ACCORDING TO THE KANSAS MESONET SHOWS 11%
10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE AND AN ERC AROUND 32 WHICH FALLS AROUND
THE 50TH PERCENTILE. THERE IS A ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF CONDITIONS
IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE HDWI AS WELL ACROSS CHEYENNE AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES BUT ONLY AROUND 20- 30% CHANCE FOR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WHICH FURTHER INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY, IS CURRENTLY THE DAY THAT IS BEING WATCHED THE CLOSEST.
RH IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS DUE TO ANOTHER DAY OF
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT
WITH DEVELOPING TROUGHING OUT WEST TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL
OVER PERFORM WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS MAINLY ACROSS KIT CARSON, SHERMAN, WALLACE, CHEYENNE
(CO) AND GREELEY COUNTIES. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM WHAT WAS SEEN 24
HOURS AGO. PROBABILITIES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER (AROUND 40%) IN
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THE AMPLITUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS APPEARS TO BE WHAT WILL DICTATE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER
NORTH THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IN ONE
HOUR OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS AROUND 30-40% BUT FOR THREE OR
MORE HOURS AROUND 20-25% AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN IN JEOPARDY MONDAY THE 22ND
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 73.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 65.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 69 IN 2019... CURRENT FORECAST 65.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 71 IN 2019.... CURRENT FORECAST 73.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THE 24TH
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 77 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 73.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 74 IN 1964.... CURRENT FORECAST 66.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 2021... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 79 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 72.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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