407
FXUS63 KGLD 011704
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1004 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST TODAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW
AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGHER WINDS GUSTING 20-40 MPH ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING FARTHER EAST, WHILE RISING
HEIGHTS WITHIN NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE IS LEADING TO BROAD LEE
TROUGHING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS
OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION WITH 950-850MB WAA UNDERWAY. 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE 5-8C RANGE AND INCREASING BASED ON RAP
ANALYSIS (NEAR 10C BY THIS AFTERNOON). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WHAT SHOULD BE VERY GOOD MIXING TODAY SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER TD VALUES THAN MEAN
GUIDANCE AND DETERMINISTIC NBM INITIALIZATIONS. ADJUSTING FOR
HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S (NBM 75TH PERCENTILE) AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR TDS IN THE 14-16F RANGE (NBM 10TH PERCENTILE),
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY DROP TO THE
15-18% RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 (18-25% RANGE TO THE
EAST). WEAKER GRADIENT AND LOWER MIXED LAYER WINDS LIMIT IMPACTS
THOUGH, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS/RFW CRITERIA IS
UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD STILL BE PERIODIC GUSTS TO
20 MPH THOUGH IN OUR WEST, AND THIS CREATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER WITH DRY/FINER FUELS.
MONDAY IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALLOWS FOR INCREASING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING MIXING, SO WHILE
SURFACE GRADIENT AND HIGHER WINDS ALOFT COULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS THE MAGNITUDE AND FREQUENCY OF
STRONGER GUSTS COULD BECOME LESS CERTAIN. IN ADDITION, LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHTS MAY LIMIT HOW LOW TDS ARE BEFORE A FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON CAUSING A RISE IN TDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE AIR MASS REMAINS WARM IT MAY BE HARDER TO ACHIEVE
LOWER RH VALUES BELOW 20% FOR MOST AREAS. THE FASTER TIMING OF
THIS WEAK FRONT ALSO SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HIGHER TEMPS ALOFT AND
WE NOT BE QUITE AS WARM ON MONDAY AS TODAY (UPPER 50S VS MIDDLE
60S). IT IS STILL A DAY TO MONITOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
CONDITIONS REMAIN WARM TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. WE START OFF IN A MILD
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE BUILDS SETTING UP A JET MAXIMUM OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS TOWARDS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA).
THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A JET MAXIMUM
OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
OUR CWA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FURTHER
DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE LOW. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW 15% OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF
PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
OVERNIGHT BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS ARE IN THE 20S.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION WHILE A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SETS UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN USHERING IN
SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 60S FOR THE CWA. THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS
FORECAST TO BE WINDY FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WITH GUSTS FROM
25-35 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT,
WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE FOR KMCK AND
ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR KGLD. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE
IN THE MORNING TOMORROW AND BECOME MORE STEADY FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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