190
FXUS63 KGLD 211845
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT BRINGS OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
TODAY A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS
PUSHED OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND IS ALLOWING OUR
TEMPERATURES TO START REBOUNDING AS HIGHS LIKELY WARM INTO THE
40S. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THE SNOWPACK KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED MORE THAN 2 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE UPPER 30S. WE WILL HAVE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY
GUSTING TO AROUND 20-30 KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. PREVIOUSLY, THERE WAS A SMALL CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO TODAY, BUT DUE TO THE
RECENT SNOWFALL, THERE IS BASICALLY NO RISK.
THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE MILD AND
WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SEE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES, AGAIN, LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AROUND 0. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S, POTENTIALLY ABOVE
FREEZING.
TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BEING SO WARM, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THANKFULLY, DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND DISORGANIZED FLOW IN
THE LOWER-LEVELS, WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS, MINIMIZING
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
WEDNESDAY IS WHEN THE RIDGE PATTERN LOOKS TO BREAK AS OUR NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH IS
A BIT OF A QUESTION, AS IT COULD ENTER THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWAY TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM LOW 60S TO LOW 80S.
THE GFS, CMC-NH, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A STRONG, WINDY COLD FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AT 850 MB BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM 30-55 KTS AS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AHEAD/WITH THE FRONT APPROACH 9
C/KM. THIS LEADS TO A LOW (<5%) CONFIDENCE CONCERN FOR BLOWING DUST
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WE HAVE AVAILABLE
IN THE COLUMN AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, WE COULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE IS THE MAIN COMPONENT MISSING AS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THEATA-E PROFILES SUPPORT INSTABILITY. AS IT STANDS,
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z WEDNESDAY - 15Z
THURSDAY, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.
AFTER THIS LOW, WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH
TYPICALLY PROVIDES AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR US. TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LOOK TO DROP MUCH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, DESPITE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO
COLD FRONTS DURING THIS TIME. THANKS TO NO MOISTURE ADVECTION,
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY THESE TWO DAYS (EXCLUDING THURSDAY
MORNING), AND RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS
WILL BRING BACK THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY
BE OVER THE 25 KTS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 932 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KGLD AND
15-20 KTS AT KMCK BEFORE SUNSET, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA
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