027
FXUS63 KGLD 030508
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1008 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 25-40 MPH.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX IN AS WELL. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPS, LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST
OF THE AREA WITH WINDS MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS HAVE
INCREASED TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. THE
FRONT DID LEAD SOME AREAS TO BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE 60S AND
APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE SINCE BEEN
SLOWLY COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BACK
TOWARDS THE HIGHER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
TONIGHT, A BENIGN NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WINDS LOWERING TO 5 TO 10 MPH.
TUESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A BROAD TROUGH
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID, THE MAIN MASS OF COLD
AIR IS FORECAST TO STILL BE IN THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE 50S, WITH
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70 IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DELAYS UNTIL CLOSE TO NOON. WINDS OTHERWISE SHOULD BE AROUND
10-15 MPH WITH THE AREA UNDER SEMI-BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, A REINFORCING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTH. AS IT DOES SO, IT SHOULD BRING THE
COLDER AIR MASS DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA. IT IS
ALSO FORECAST TO ADVECT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. WITH THE SATURATION, UPPER
TROUGH, AND WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT, PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT QPF WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO
0.05". WHILE SOME HAVE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 0.1-0.2", THIS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR MASS THAT IS ACTING
LIKE A FRONT AND LEAD TO HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MOST
OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70) SHOULD SEE MIST/DRIZZLE
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE COLDER
AIR SHOULD PUSH IN AND EITHER CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW, OR ALLOW
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN. THE CHANCE THAT FREEZING
RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS BELOW
10%, BUT THINGS COULD BECOME VERY SLICK IF IT DOES OCCUR. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS IS NORTH OF I-70. THE SAVING GRACE IS THAT
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE MAY REMAIN DECENTLY ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
INHIBITING COOLING AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE POTENTIALLY
INCREASING DEWPOINT ABOVE FREEZING. STILL, KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST AND HAVE A PLAN IN CASE SLICK SPOTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST EXPANDING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
END ANY PRECIPITATION, DRIZZLE, OR FOG THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH SKIES FORECAST TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S FOR COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, AND 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO THE
EAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15- 20 MPH WITH THE HIGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING
TO THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
THU-FRI: THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE SITUATED ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.. IN MODEST NNW (THU) TO W (FRI)
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 60'S. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 42-44F.
SAT-SUN: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGNOSTICATED TO MOVE ASHORE THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST
FRI-FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE AND
PROGRESS SLOWLY E-ESE ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE PROVINCE (SAT),
4-CORNERS (SUN) AND SOUTHERN PLAINS (MON). BARRING A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE
GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECT RELATIVELY COOLER (ALBEIT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL DEVELOP, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT KMCK, WHERE CEILINGS MAY APPROACH MVFR
WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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