580
FXUS63 KGLD 232009
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
109 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS
UNLIKELY.
- COOL DOWN TOWARDS MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OVER MEXICO STRETCHING NORTH
TO THE PLAINS. ROUNDING THE RIDGE WAS HIGH CLOUD COVER COMING OFF
THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. DEW POINTS
WILL BE AROUND 30F, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT FOG. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP LOWS RATHER
WARM.
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL GRADUALLY END THROUGH THE DAY. HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS
CLEAR WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM TEMPERATURES BECOME. WARMED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE DATA SPECTRUM. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LAST OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH COMPLICATES THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THERE. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS AT 75F
OR HIGHER ALIGN WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL NEAR OR BELOW THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, HOWEVER
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR A WARNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE AS A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. RECORD HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA.
INTO THE WEEKEND A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE TABLE AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SEND A MODEST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. GEFS IS IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF-AIFS SHOWS MORE OF A SUNDAY MORNING
PASSAGE SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME
BREEZY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT CURRENTLY GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BETTER WIND FIELDS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGH TEMPERATURES COME
DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY WITH MAY AREAS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY IF THE QUICKER FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS.
CURRENTLY THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY. THERE IS A SLIM
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO OCCUR SUNDAY AS SOME OMEGA AROUND 1-
3 MICROBARS IS SEEN IN THE 700-600MB LEVEL BUT WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THAT TO MATERIALIZE. THE
OTHER PART TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS FOR LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THERE IS LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS WELL SUNDAY DUE TO WEAK OMEGA NEAR THE SURFACE. A
FEW THINGS PLAYING AGAINST THIS IS WINDS STILL MAY BE BREEZY
POST FRONT AND WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE THE LOW LEVELS A BIT MORE
SATURATED. BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL VARY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DESPITE THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST, NO LLWS IS EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST MON DEC 22 2025
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH MONTHLY
(DECEMBER)RECORD HIGHS. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE ~40F.
==============================
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 24
==============================
BURLINGTON.........79 IN 1955; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 72
GOODLAND...........77 IN 1955; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 72
MCCOOK.............74 IN 1964; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 67
HILL CITY..........67 IN 2021; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 66
============================================
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES DECEMBER 24TH
==============================================
GOODLAND..........32 IN 1940
MCCOOK............ 33 IN 2024
HILL CITY......... 34 IN 1940
BURLINGTON.........37 IN 1971
==============================
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 25
==============================
BURLINGTON.........67 IN 1929; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 72
GOODLAND...........74 IN 1950; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 72
MCCOOK.............70 IN 1929; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 62
HILL CITY..........76 IN 1950; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 63
==============================
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 26
==============================
BURLINGTON.........77 IN 1980; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 67
GOODLAND...........69 IN 2005; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 69
MCCOOK.............68 IN 2008; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 67
HILL CITY..........73 IN 2021; CURRENT FORECAST HIGH 70
==============================
MONTHLY (DEC) RECORD HIGHS
==============================
BURLINGTON.........81 IN 1939
GOODLAND...........83 IN 1964
MCCOOK.............81 IN 1964
HILL CITY..........83 IN 1964
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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