568
FXUS63 KGLD 082208
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CWA, LIKELY THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS SET UP OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. THIS MAY FORM SOME WEAK SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD DRAIN SOME OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE STORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING THOUGH. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS WILL BE COMING FROM A 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OVERALL, TODAY IS A STRONGER COPY OF TUESDAY. STORMS LOOK TO BE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 22-0Z. MOST LIKELY, WE WILL SEE A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FIRE OFF IN EASTERN COLORADO AND FILL INTO A
QLCS BY 0-3Z. WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF A BOWING SEGMENT IN THE QLCS IS ABLE TO FORM. WINDS UP
TO 85 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS CASE, WHICH WOULD CREATE A
BLOWING DUST HAZARD, MAYBE EVEN A HABOOB. MOST LIKELY, WIND GUSTS
WILL BE IN THE 55-70 MPH RANGE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO BLOWING DUST,
BUT A HABOOB BECOMES SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY AND LOCALIZED PLUMES OF
DUST WOULD BECOME THE HAZARD.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW-END SIDE FOR THIS EVENT,
MAINLY IN THE 20-35 KTS RANGE. THIS IS STILL ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE
HAIL TO FORM, BUT MAKES IT LESS LIKELY. LCLS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE 2 KM. THAT COMBINED WITH THE POOR SHEAR MEANS TORNADOES ARE
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO END
AROUND 6Z, BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL CLOSER TO 9-12Z.
OVER THE PAST MULTIPLE RUNS, THE NAMNEST HAS BEEN SHOWING A SECOND
SOLUTION TO TODAY'S CONVECTION. THIS WOULD HAVE A CELL FORM AROUND
OR SOUTH OF LIMON, CO AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY
EVENING. THEN, AROUND 4-5Z, AROUND THE TRI-STATE BORDER, ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS FIRES AND MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS SOLUTION
IS LESS LIKELY, BUT IF IT OCCURS THE WIND THREAT LOWERS
SIGNIFICANTLY, THE HAIL THREAT INCREASES TO 2 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE,
AND SEVERE CONVECTION MAY LAST UNTIL CLOSER TO 9Z.
IN ADDITION TO THESE THREATS, THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT SOME
BACKBUILDING FINGERS FROM THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION PRODUCE 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN. IT'S UNLIKELY, BUT THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
TOMORROW'S SEVERE THREAT IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHEAR. LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE A FEW KNOTS HIGHER, WHICH LOOKS
TO PUSH EFFECTIVE SHEAR CLOSER TO THE 35 KTS MARK. THIS INCREASES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL, BUT MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE REMAINS AROUND 1.75
INCHES. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO, BUT
STILL LESS THAN 2%. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE A QLCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH WIND BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT, STILL. THE DUST POTENTIAL DOES DECREASE DUE TO RECENT
PRECIPITATION, BUT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
ONCE AGAIN, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SPARK OFF THE MAIN
WAVE OF STORMS, ENTERING THE CWA AROUND 22-0Z. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
20% CHANCE THAT ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY FIRES OFF SOME WEAK SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 18-20Z. THIS CONVECTION MAY
ONCE AGAIN LOWER INSTABILITY AND DECREASE THE SEVERE RISK FOR FRIDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN WAVE OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL UNTIL AROUND 6-9Z FRIDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS A FLOODING THREAT, THIS INCREASES WITH THURSDAY NIGHT'S
STORMS. PWATS IN THE 1.2-1.6 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND THERE ARE
MORE MODELS THAT ARE TRYING TO SHOW LEADING EDGE AND BACKBUILDING
FINGERS OF CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN
THE 2-4 INCH RANGE. COMBINED WITH TONIGHT'S PRECIPITATION, THIS
INCREASES THE OVERNIGHT FLASH FLOODING RISK TO AROUND 30%.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, BUT STILL IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
AROUND 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA AND AROUND 70 IN THE EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE LAST IN A SERIES OF DAYS WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME PERIOD IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN NORMAL
SINCE IT WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, GENERAL PATTERN APPEARS TO HOLD
FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH OF AREA, WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS
TO JUST SKIRT THE CWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS WEAK H7-H5 LOW MOVES
INTO SW KANSAS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND TIME BUT OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING HOURS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE BETTER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, ALTHOUGH OVERALL WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE BEST SHEAR PROFILES FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE FOR ORGANIZED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING
FOLLOWED BY THREAT FOR HAIL IN THE 1" TO 1.75" RANGE. BLOWING DUST
THREAT WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW AND WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS ON
THURSDAY AND MORNING CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SPECIFICS ARE
VERY LOW AT THIS POINT HOWEVER, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN DUST
THREAT.
REGION WILL MOVE INTO A WARM AND DRY PATTERN AS STRONG H5 597 DM
RIDGE DEVELOPS AND BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS ON PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE SATURDAY
THIS POTENTIAL DROPS OFF RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER STRONG RIDGE. WITH PROBABILITIES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
OF RIDGING FAIRLY HIGH BASED ON ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, CONFIDENCE
IN HOT AND OVERALL DRY WEATHER IS HIGH. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE 90S, POSSIBLY UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK, THE PRIMARY EXPECTED
IMPACTS. RIGHT NOW, DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
STORMS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT STRONG GUSTS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY WITH BLOWING DUST
TOO. HEAVY RAIN AND BLOWING DUST MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARILY IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. BEHIND THE STORMS, WINDS WILL FAVOR
A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, BEFORE FAVORING A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION LATER IN THE MORNING THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SIMILAR ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...CA
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