621
FXUS63 KGLD 102206
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN CO THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, STRONGEST BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND NOON WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-40 MPH WILL GUST 45-55 MPH.
WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CO AND
ADJACENT KS BORDER COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
THROUGH THIS EVENING: 18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SPC
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE STRONG INSTABILITY (~3000 J/KG
MLCAPE) OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.. ALONG/EAST OF A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LIBERAL (KLBL) TO HAYS (KHYS)
TO CONCORDIA (KCNK).. WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (850 MB
DEWPOINTS 15-18C, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ~70F) RESIDES BENEATH A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8.0-8.5
C/KM). WEST OF THE FRONT, IN THE GOODLAND CWA, A THOROUGHLY
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S.
BREEZY N WINDS (EARLIER THIS MORNING) WILL BECOME VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ALONG THE KS-NE BORDER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AND S LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS AND THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT
REORIENTS/ RESPONDS TO A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN CO.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF I-70 IN CO (KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES), WHERE A RELATIVELY TIGHTER MSLP-850
MB HEIGHT GRADIENT AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING MAY FOSTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF 20-30 MPH SSW-SW WINDS / MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-THU: THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN CO WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS THIS EVENING THEN NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE / COOLER
AIRMASS IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.. ENHANCED (TO SOME
DEGREE) BY PRECIP/EVAP COOLING IN WY.. WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (THIS EVENING) AND NORTHWEST KS
(TONIGHT), THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WILL MANIFEST AS A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND
SUNRISE (10-12Z). FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ~40-45 KNOT
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT DURING, AND A FEW HOURS AFTER,
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHEN EFFICIENT MIXING ASSOC/W LOW- LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD
OF STRONG NW WINDS, STRONGEST BETWEEN ~12-16Z (6-10 AM MDT)..
WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO ~55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 25-35 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
15-25 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON AND 10-20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON (6 PM
MDT/00Z FRI). LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS BORDER COUNTIES, WHERE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BOTTOM-OUT ~15-20% DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT [1] THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING, [2] WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
[3] THAT MINIMUM RH'S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 15%,
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. IF SUBSEQUENT
RUNS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND/OR THAT MINIMUM RH'S WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER, AN IMPACT-BASED RFW COULD CERTAINLY BE
JUSTIFIED. EXPECT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S, COOLEST IN EASTERN CO.
THU NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FOSTER
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA/NIGHT, EXCEPT
IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS BORDER COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO SHIFT TO THE S BY SUNRISE (~12Z) FRI. WITH CLEAR
SKIES, EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40'S TO LOWER
50'S.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: A MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME
WILL ENSUE, ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY, A BAGGY
SURFACE TROUGH/CYCLONE REDEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
AND.. A SURFACE TO 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH DIRECTS GULF
MOISTURE POLEWARD FROM THE TX GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT PRESENT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CAP STRENGTH WILL INCREASE
WITH NORTHERN EXTENT FROM THE KS-OK BORDER.. AND THAT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
GOODLAND CWA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
SATURDAY, OUR REGION IS IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A WEAK JET
STREAK OVERHEAD. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP SOMEWHERE
IN WESTERN KANSAS, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH
IT WILL BE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S TO 90S
WITH THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) ON THE HIGHER END.
KIT CARSON COUNTY WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE COINCIDING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
AROUND 20%. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ARE AROUND
60 FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY, SO ANY FIRES THAT START HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO GROW AND SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL QUICKLY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A JET STREAK OVERHEAD WILL AID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) AROUND 30-50%.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO 70S. WE CONTINUE
TO SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A JET
STREAK OVERHEAD. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND WILL START TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR TUESDAY AND 90S FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE ESE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NNW AND INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE (~09-10Z) THURSDAY MORNING. NNW TO
NW WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY STRENGTHEN TO 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 KNOTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER (~12-13Z). STRONG NNW TO NW WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
BRIEF/OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOC/W BLOWING DUST
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS AROUND NOON MDT
(~18Z THU), AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NNW TO NW WINDS WILL
FURTHER DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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