391
FXUS63 KGLD 192021
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TO FINISH THE DAY FRIDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- 10-20% CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP OUT IN
THE 60S WITH SOME SUNSHINE PEEKING THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER. SOME
AREAS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE 70S IF THE CLOUD COVER FULLY
CLEARS, BUT RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD STREAM IN FROM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND HELP PUSH THE SURFACE LOW INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
FURTHER WEAKEN WINDS INITIALLY, BEFORE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
STREAMING OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S DESPITE THE CALMER WINDS.
TOMORROW, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF SOME
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE
BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM/FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM
INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY INTERMITTENT CLOUD
COVER CONTINUING TO MOVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME VIRGA WITH MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10% DUE TO
RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE. THAT BEING
SAID, SOME MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD MOVE IN AND HELP
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
TOMORROW NIGHT, RELATIVELY CALM WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND SOME CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
INTO A ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY RIDGED PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE A BIT DIFFERENT AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NOT ONLY IS THIS FORECAST TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S, BUT IT SHOULD TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH. THAT BEING SAID, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 25%.
FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND NO PRECIPITATION. MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IF THE CLOUD COVER
HOLDS OFF AND DOES NOT INTERFERE. WINDS GENERALLY SHOULD BE BELOW 15
MPH AND GUSTS BELOW 25 MPH. THAT BEING SAID, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TROUGHS TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE
FLOW AND PUSH SOME WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA. IF ANY OF THEM DO
FORM, GUSTS COULD REACH 30-40 MPH AND LEAD TO SOME CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, FAVORING TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS. TEMPERATURES
WOULD THEN BE A BIT COOLER, BUT THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR
HIGHS BELOW 50. SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
SHOULD ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS DEVELOP, BUT NOTHING SUGGESTS ANYTHING
IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO BE MORE
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AROUND 300-500FT WITH SPEEDS AROUND
40 KTS. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD END AROUND 12Z, CLOSE TO
SUNRISE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO BE MORE FROM THE NORTH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY THE 19TH.
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 68 IN 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 63 IN 1941, 1966 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST
64.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 1949... CURRENT FORECAST 61.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 70 IN 1979.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY THE 22ND
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 62.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 69 IN 2019... CURRENT FORECAST 62.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 71 IN 2019.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THE 24TH
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 77 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 74 IN 1964.... CURRENT FORECAST 66.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 2021... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 79 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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