236  
FXUS63 KGLD 162347  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
547 PM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FROM LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS THE HEAT. THE SECONDARY  
CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER ZONAL  
WESTERLY FLOW. THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL CARRY A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY  
ENHANCED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO  
THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT REMAINS GENERALLY OVER  
EASTERN COLORADO, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S  
AND LOWER 100S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, HEAT INDICES  
WILL BE NEAR 105 OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH  
OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NO RELIEF IN SIGHT DURING THE  
UPCOMING WEEK.  
 
AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH HEAT INDICES, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES TO BE NEEDED EACH DAY THROUGH THE  
WEEK BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND PREFER TO HANDLE THEM ON A DAY-BY-DAY  
BASIS SINCE THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RECOVER ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EACH NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
SYNOPSIS... HOT HOT HEAT WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE LONG TERM  
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. PEOPLE WILL FEEL LIKE RED  
HOT CHILI PEPPERS WITH FLAMING LIPS IF OUTSIDE TOO LONG IN THE  
MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 83. FOR THOSE AREAS, HEAT INDICES WILL BE  
AROUND 105 DEGREES F WHICH MEANS HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE SOME MAY LIKE IT HOT, MOST WILL  
WANT TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE LATER THIS  
WEEK, ESPECIALLY GROUPS SENSITIVE TO HEAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS  
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HELP TO LOWER THOSE EXTREME  
TEMPERATURES. NO SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
DISCUSSION... A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY HOT  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY IF  
NOT STRETCHING INTO THIS WEEKEND. WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ON THE  
NORTH SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY  
OR FRIDAY. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY HELP TO EXACERBATE HOT  
CONDITIONS AT HEAT INDICES REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES F.  
 
BY THIS WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER OF THE  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS  
WILL OPEN UP THE OPPORTUNITY FROM SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS SATURDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY AS SOME MODERATELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW  
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO ADDING  
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO HELP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, SOME  
OCCASIONAL UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE  
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LOCALLY OFFER  
SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO  
PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL FORM SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT WITH THE  
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOME  
SORT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  
 
THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER  
SHOULD MEAN GOOD NEWS AS FAR AS THE HEAT IS CONCERNED FOR THE TRI-  
STATE AREA BY SUNDAY AND STRETCHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 80S WHICH WOULD BE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO, WHILE THERE WILL  
CERTAINLY BE UNCOMFORTABLY HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF  
THIS WEEK, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A REPRIEVE OF COOLER  
TEMPERATURES COMING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. FOR  
KGLD, THROUGH 07Z THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 12  
KNOTS. FROM 07Z TO 20Z THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 12 KNOTS. FROM  
20Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD, SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE  
AREA AND PROVIDE A FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SINCE NOT A LOT  
OF AGREEMENT IN WHERE THIS WILL BE AND WILL BE TOWARD THE END OF  
THE PERIOD, CHOSE TO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT  
ANTICIPATE ONCE THIS TIME GETS CLOSER, THE FORECAST WILL BE  
CHANGED. THE WINDS IN THESE LAST FOUR HOURS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT  
11 KNOTS.  
 
FOR KMCK, THROUGH 18Z THE WINDS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST TO  
SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS. AT 18Z THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE  
SOUTH AT 7 KNOTS. FROM 21Z TO THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE FORECAST  
FOR HEAR WILL BE THE SAME AS WITH KGLD. SO WILL KEEP ANY MENTION  
OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE WINDS DURING THIS TIME  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-  
016-029.  
 
CO...NONE.  
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART  
LONG TERM...PATTON  
AVIATION...BULLER  
 
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