632
FXUS63 KGLD 032005
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
105 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER SUNDAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS LINE.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS ENCROACHING UPON THE AREA LEADING TO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA TODAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY AROUND 5-10 MPH.
SOME WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN SUSTAINED
AROUND 10-15 MPH. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THESE
WINDS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT AS WEAK PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD HELP TO
LEAD SOME MIXING DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AS A 25-30 KNOT JET
RESIDES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS LONG AS THE WEAK MIXING OCCURS
AND THE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY NOT EVEN FALL OUT OF THE 40S. IF THE
WINDS WERE TO LIGHTEN UP THEN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE PRONE TO
FALLING CLOSER TO FREEZING.
SUNDAY, CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. I WENT WITH
HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
WINDS BUT OPTED TO CAP IT AT THE CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH MAY TEMPER HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES DO GET. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MAINLY FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE. THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE COUNTIES
HOWEVER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME SITES ACROSS YUMA AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES MEETING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH AROUND 18-19Z THEN WINDS QUICKLY FALLING OFF. THERE IS
A 5%-10% CHANCE THAT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN LEADING TO A LONGER
DURATION OF OVERLAP OF THESE CONDITIONS AND LESS THAN 5% CHANCE
THE TROUGH STALLS OVER THE AREA AND LEADS TO EVEN WINDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY.
WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO ENSUE FOR MONDAY AS WE HAVE ANOTHER
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. WINDS ARE
FORECAST BE LIGHTER AGAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
LATTER PART OF THAT RANGE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A STRONG 500MB
VORTICITY MAX MONDAY EVENING MAY LEAD TO SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA
AS DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
AND SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK. LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN SPREAD AND
SPAGHETTI MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PATH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHICH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE CAVEAT STILL LIES WITH THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH. A FURTHER EAST
POSITIONING WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHEREAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WOULD IMPACT
MORE SO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GEFS MEAN MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF-AIFS
WHICH IS WHAT IS WHAT THE CURRENT DISCUSSION WILL BE MORE TIED
TO. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE ECMWF PULLS THE TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUTLIER TRACK BASED ON SPAGHETTI
MODELS. OVERALL DO AGREE WITH THE RECENT UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
NUDGE WITH THE PREVIOUS 3 RUNS OF THE ECMWF-AI WHICH IF
CONTINUES MAY KEEP THE BETTER FORCING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NUISANCE TO MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE COOL DOWN WITH THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DAY OF
MOST VARIABILITY BEING THURSDAY DUE TO SPREAD OF TIMING WITH THE
SYSTEM. WITH AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM MORE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AT LEAST FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT TO INITIALLY START THE
PERIOD FOR GLD BEFORE AN INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR STARTING AROUND 20Z AS SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE WEST. MCK IS FORECAST TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
TROUGH FOR THE WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE TROUGH HOWEVER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEADING TO BREEZY
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AS SOME MIXING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR. IF THE WINDS DO NOT MIX DOWN THEN LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
WATCHING A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S, THIS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY INTO THE MID TEENS
FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE. A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z
RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME INSTANCES OF WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
TO OCCUR. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THAT THE WAVE IS DELAYED WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO MORE OF A PROLONGED OVERLAP OF THE STRONGER WINDS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES POTENTIALLY FALLING EVEN LOWER. THERE IS AN
EVEN LOWER CHANCE LESS THAN 5% OF THE WAVE STALLING OVER THE
AREA LEADING BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING FOR THE DURATION OF THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE OF A PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST IS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON WHICH SEVERELY LIMITS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN IF
EITHER OF THE TWO ABOVE LISTED SCENARIOS PANS OUT. WITH OUR
CONTINUED DRY SPELL OUTSIDE OF THE LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT
OCCURRED LAST WEEKEND HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED 10 HOUR FUELS CLOSER
TO 13-15% ACCORDING TO KANSAS MESONET DATA BUT 100 HOUR FUELS
STILL REMAINS AROUND 11% DUE TO DORMANCY VEGETATION WHICH DOES
LEAD TO ME SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE
GROWTH IF ENOUGH OF AN OVERLAP DOES OCCUR. IF THE WAVE DOES SLOW
DOWN AND WINDS DO CONTINUE LONGER THEN MULTIPLE HOURS OF VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES WOULD OCCUR. OVERALL
THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THIS SETUP TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCT AT THIS TIME BUT IF GUIDANCE DOES TREND TO FAVOR A
SLOWER SHORTWAVE THEN A SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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