952
FXUS63 KGLD 171843
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1243 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST
THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN DAYS FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
OUR SURFACE LOW FOR THE DAY HAS BEEN A BIT MORE BROAD THAN
ANTICIPATED AND THAT LOWERED THE MAGNITUDE FOR THE WIND FOR THE
DAY. REMNANT EFFECTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15- 20 MPH ACROSS HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW, DECATUR AND
NORTON COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE BRIEFLY TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY END UP DEVELOPING.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WITH HIGHER MIXED DEW POINTS FOR THE AREA
WHICH SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SHOULD HELP KEEP HUMIDITY ABOVE THE 15% THRESHOLD FOR MULTIPLE
HOURS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE CONCERN FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
THIS EVENING, A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS COLD FRONT HAS MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
BUT IS DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGER WIND FIELDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH ARE FORECAST. THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO HELP KEEP BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL AT BAY ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AFTER
02Z HELPING LESSEN ANY IMPACTS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT BUT THE
FORECASTED INCREASE IN WIND MAY HELP KEEP THEM UP A LITTLE
FURTHER THROUGH AROUND 06-09Z. OVERNIGHT, AM NOTICING AS WELL AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES HOWEVER WITH A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
THURSDAY, A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS. A TAD COOLER THAN
TODAY HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S AREA WIDE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BRING THE RETURN OF BREEZY WINDS
TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
OUR 850MB FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO
BRING AN INCREASES IN MOISTURE AS WELL WHICH LOOKS TO HELP
MINIMIZE ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE RAP IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE MOISTURE RETURN BY 6 HOURS.
NOT COMPLETELY BUYING IT AS THE RAP TYPICALLY DOES HAVE A DRIER
BIAS BUT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IF THE RAP
DOES PAN OUT THEN A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
COULD BE REALIZED ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE
LINE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST AROUND
15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THE BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION.
DUE TO THIS AND CONTINUOUS MIXING HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES AS THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FRIDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNALS OF BECOMING A BIT MORE
ACTIVE. TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO EMERGE
KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS OUR
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES. HAVE NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SIGNAL FOR CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SAID MOISTURE ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE IN THE LOW 80S WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LIE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
WEST WHERE "DRIER" AIR IS FORECAST TO BE. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF OF THE ROCKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL AS EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WOULD FURTHER PROMOTE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE FORCING TO HELP
INITATION STORMS. THE COVERAGE IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE
HOWEVER AS MOST QPF OUTPUTS IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ANEMIC IN
OUTPUT AND OTHERS ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY, TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN
OUR RIDGE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL INTO THE AREA. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR A RETURN FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS DEPENDENT ON HOW FRIDAY EVOLVES. DURING THE AFTERNOON A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE ONE OF THE FOCUSES FOR INITIAL
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEBRASKA WORKS ITS WAY SLOWLY INTO THE AREA AND INTO A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH 2000- 3500
J/KG OF MUCAPE (DEPENDENT ON THE MOISTURE) ALONG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO INDICT A CAP IN PLACE WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND ADDITIONAL SUBTLE 500MB DIFFLUENCE STORMS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO INITIATE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ALL HAZARDS MAY BE ON
THE TABLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM INTERACTIONS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE. ALONG THE COLD FRONT ANY
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GROW UPSCALE BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR
IN PLACE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO THE SSE AS AN EVENTUALLY MCS WITH AGAIN ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE AS 0-3 AND 0-1 SRH INCREASE WITH THE LLJ. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RANGING FROM 1.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS. EXACT LOCATIONS ARE STILL A BIT FUZZY HOWEVER WITH ANY
RELATIVE HIGHER POTENTIAL AS THE NAM IS NOTICEABLY FURTHER
SOUTH WITHE SHORTWAVE VERSUS THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH WOLD HAVE
AN IMPACT ON COVERAGE. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING LINGER TOO LONG THIS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SATURDAY'S SYSTEM AS WELL, SO OVERALL
A LOT STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES AS WELL SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN SATURDAY BUT STORM CHANCES STILL
REMAIN. TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE SW CONUS. DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE SOME ADDITIONAL STORM POTENTIAL MAY
ASSOCIATE ITSELF WITH ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEAR TO BE A BIT DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND IF ANY CLOUD COVER CAN LINGER.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE 90S ON SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES
ON SATURDAY IF THE HIGHER MOISTURE SCENARIOS PAN OUT AND MAY EVEN BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST IF MORNING RAIN
AND CLOUDS REMAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE BEFORE WANING THIS AFTERNOON FOR GLD AS
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WANES; WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AT MCK HOWEVER DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AROUND 02-04Z BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF 30-35 KNOT
WIND GUSTS. AFTER THIS THEN WINDS BEGIN WANING FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE PRIMARILY FOR
MCK WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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