251
FXUS63 KGLD 201315
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST DUE TO THE CANCELLATION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SNOWFALL AND PATCHY
FOG IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE NUMEROUS AND WILL INCLUDE ENDING OF SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY, NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA.
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTH AS IT INTENSIFIES. POTENT UPPER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF COLD
AIR WITH IT. ALSO MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR
TO WELL ABOVE 100 METERS. THIS WILL BE THE SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
MODELS STARTED OUT FINE AT JET LEVEL BUT THE ALL IMPORTANT JET
BEHIND THE NEXT SYSTEM WAS NOT SAMPLED. IN FACT I WILL BE A LITTLE
LEERY OF THE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL IT GETS SAMPLED
BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. MODELS HAVING THEIR DIFFICULTIES AT MID
LEVELS. WITH OUR CURRENT SYSTEM MODELS TENDED HAVE THE SYSTEM TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF DOING BETTER. WITH THE WESTERN
SYSTEM, MODELS WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE/TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE
LIFT LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. HAVE CANCELLED SOME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, AND MAY END UP CANCELING THE REST OF
THE ADVISORY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DECENT SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, AND IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 TO 20 MPH AND MAYBE LOW END BREEZY IF
ENOUGH MIXING OCCURS. WITH THE SNOW SO LIGHT AND LITTLE TO NO
MELTING TAKING PLACE, THIS COULD CAUSE A SHORT PERIOD OF BLOWING
SNOW. SO HAVE INSERTED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FROM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ENTIRE AREA GOT COVERED WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION GETTING THE LEAST IT LOOKS LIKE AT THIS TIME. WILL GET SOME
SUN WITH WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. AM THINKING THE SNOW WILL HINDER
THE WARMING. SO KEPT THE IDEA OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT
WARM IT UP AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.
TREND FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN FOR THE MODELS TO SLOW DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS AND ESPECIALLY THE FOG. CHOSE TO KEEP PATCHY FOG
OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS AGAIN.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND DIG OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FOG OUT OF THE
MORNING. WITH A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND WITH THE
EXPECTED GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS, WINDS MAY END UP STRONG THAT
WHAT THE MODELS HAVE IN THERE. SO RAMPED WINDS UP, AND THEY MAY NEED
TO BE DONE MORE.
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL AND INDIRECT AFFECT OF THIS PROCESS IS TO
CAUSE A JET SEGMENT TO DEVELOP OR MOVE BACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA. AS
A RESULT THE JET AXIS/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THIS JET BEGIN TO
AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS JET CONTINUES TO PULL
NORTH AND PUT MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA UNDER THE AFFECTS OF A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LATEST FORECAST BUILDER KEPT THURSDAY DRY BUT EXPANDED THE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT RESIDES IS WHERE
THE BUILDER HAS THE POPS, AND LEFT THOSE ALONE. HOWEVER, DESPITE A
LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, THERE IS STRONG
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG WITH DECENT THETA-E LAPSE RATES. SO
INSERTED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF POPS ARE EXPANDED FURTHER, AND THIS WAS ALSO A REASON
TO PUT IN THE SPRINKLE AND FLURRIE MENTION.
THERE LOOKS TO BE RATHER THICK CLOUD COVER AT MULTIPLE LEVELS WITH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. THOSE REASONS PLUS SNOW
COVER THAT WILL STILL BE AROUND LED ME TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM WHAT THE BUILDER GAVE ME.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA REMAINS UNDER THE AFFECT OF THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF JET THROUGH THE DAY. THAT JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
STORM SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED AND MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA, THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SPEED, POSITION, AND HOW
MUCH/WHEN THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CUTOFF. AM CONCERNED BASED ON THE
CURRENT PATTERN AND STRONG RIDGING BEHIND THE SYSTEM, THAT THIS
STORM COULD GO BY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. EVEN
IF THE CLOSED OFF PORTION OF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH,
THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT MOVES ACROSS. THE
FORECAST BUILDER GAVE ME RATHER HIGH POPS, MUCH ABOVE CHANCE, ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA.
I AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THESE. HOWEVER, WITH THE DECENT FORCING
SHOWN AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INDICATING A RATHER
HIGH CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, I KEPT WHAT THE BUILDER
GAVE ME. MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
OVERLAND. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW BUT I CANNOT RULE OUT
A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A WINTRY MIX AS THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS ACROSS
THE AREA. AGAIN PLENTY OF TIME TO ADJUST.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE EVEN THICKER WITH A MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT
EXPECT WITH THE PREFRONTAL WIND FIELD. ALSO THE FRONT MAX SAG INTO A
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. DUE TO A NUMBER OF THINGS
POINTING TO THE BUILDER TEMPERATURES BEING TOO WARM, I LOWERED THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 414 AM MST
WED FEB 20 2019
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS HAD IT LAST NIGHT. THE
LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. I CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONCERNS ABOUT A POSSIBLE SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ABOUT COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID
40S.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION, MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WHILE TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST WED FEB 20 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KGLD, THE WINDS
WILL START OUT WEST AT NEAR 10 KNOTS. AROUND 17Z THE WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23 KNOTS.
THIS WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW WITH VFR IS
STILL EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 23Z WHEN THE WINDS STOP
GUSTING AND DECREASE TO 7 KNOTS. AROUND 03Z THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AT 6 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.
UPDATED
FOR KMCK, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST HOUR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OF THE FORECAST. AT 13Z
THE WINDS BECOME WEST AT 6 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TO AROUND 23Z, THE WEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KNOTS. AGAIN
THIS WILL CAUSE A MINOR REDUCTION IN THE VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW. AT 00Z, THE WINDS WILL STOP GUSTING AND DECREASE TO 6 KNOTS.
AT 03Z THOSE 6 KNOT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...BULLER
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