736
FXUS63 KGLD 171114
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY-MONDAY, MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, AND
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS. BLOWING DUST
MAY ALSO OCCUR MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH SOUTH OF
U.S. 40.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS A 30% CHANCE OF LEADING
TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AND A 70% CHANCE OF CAUSING STRATUS. THESE
LOOK TO LIFT BY THE LATE MORNING, WITH THE FOG LIFTING A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF THE STRATUS.
TODAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. BEFORE
THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE WESTERN CWA AND
NEAR 100 IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE FRINGES OF SOUTHEASTERN CWA HAS A
25% CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RH
VALUES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY TO LEOTI ARE FORECAST TO
DROP TO AROUND 15% WHILE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUST IN THE 15-30
KTS RANGE. THE STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE THE GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED PLUMES OF
BLOWING DUST.
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY IS SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN ZONES OF CONCERN.
THE WESTERN CONCERN LOOKS TO FIRE OFF OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
BECOMING A COLD FRONT. THE START TIME LOOKS TO BE AROUND 21-23Z,
ALONG THE WESTERN CWA BORDER. ONCE STORMS FORM, THEY WILL TAP INTO
THE MID LEVEL WINDS AND ROCKET TO THE NORTHEAST, LIKELY IN THE 40-60
KTS RANGE. ALL HAZARDS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN SATURDAY'S. HAIL IS STILL THE MAIN THREAT, WITH MAXIMUM
REASONABLE HAIL SIZE BEING UP TO 3 INCHES WITH 1-2 INCHES BEING MORE
COMMON. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 50-70 MPH RANGE, BUT 90 MPH
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE DUST THREAT REMAINS A MAJOR HAZARD FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.25 INCH OF RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS AROUND YUMA COUNTY SEEM TO BE THE MOST
AT RISK FOR THE DUST POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS LOWER AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT IF A TORNADO CAN FORM, EXPECT A LONG
LIVED, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO.
THE EASTERN CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF U.S. 83 AND MAY START CLOSER TO
THE 23-02Z TIME FRAME. THESE STORMS WOULD FIRE OFF A SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT, ASSISTED BY THE INCOMING 500 MB TROUGH. THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE AND INITIATION ZONE OF THESE STORMS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON
HOW FAR WEST THE DRYLINE SETS-UP. THE DRYLINE MAY PUSH FARTHER WEST
INTO THE AREA, OR MAY MOVE EAST AND REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA. THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT WOULD EXPOSE MORE OF THE CWA TO THESE STORMS WHILE
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT WOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT. AS FAR AS HAZARDS
GO, THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE WESTERN STORMS, BUT THE THREAT FOR
LONG DURATION, STRONG TORNADOES INCREASES.
PEAK TIMING FOR THE SEVERE THREATS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 22-04Z, WITH
THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY (35% CHANCE) LAST UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO NEAR 40 IN THE WESTERN CWA AND REMAIN
IN THE LOW 50S IN THE EASTERN CWA.
MONDAY, THE BULK OF THE 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, A FAST MOVING, AND FAIRLY STRONG 850 MB LOW WILL BE EJECTING
OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE AN EAST/WEST WARM FRONT TO
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CWA DURING THE MIDDAY. THE 850 MB SETUP
WILL BE MIMICKED AT THE SURFACE, WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY SETTING UP
AROUND THE U.S. 40 TO KS 96 AREA. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S, BUT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S. THE WARM SECTOR WILL
ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE AT SEEING RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET, BUT
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
ONCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PUSHES EAST, THE BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY
BECOME A STRONG COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST
IN THE 35-40 KTS RANGE. THIS CREATES A COUPLE OF HAZARDS, THE FIRST
OF WHICH IS A SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN HABOOB. IF A HABOOB FORMS, IT
WOULD ONLY IMPACT AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD, OUT OF THE THE GLD CWA. BUT AREAS IMPACTED
SHOULD EXPECT A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITIES, LIKELY TO BROWNOUT
CONDITIONS. PRIME TIME FOR BLOWING DUST WILL BE BETWEEN 20-00Z.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT IS SEVERE WEATHER. WHILE THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON,
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN CWA, EAST
OF U.S. 283. HAZARDS FROM SEVERE STORMS THAT DO OCCUR IN THE CWA
WOULD BE HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCHES, 60-70 MPH WINDS, AND A BRIEF
TORNADO. PRIME TIME FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE 19-00Z.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO COOL INTO
THE 30S, WITH FROST BEING POSSIBLE. CURRENT THINKING IS MOST OF THE
CWA MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT IS HOLDING US BACK IS WAITING TO SEE HOW THE STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING MODIFY THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ON MONDAY, AND
POTENTIAL LINGERING CLOUD COVER TO KEEP SOME OF THE AREA TOO WARM
FOR FROST. ALONG AND WEST OF KS 27, CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 34 DEGREES IS AROUND 50%, BUT LESS THAN 15% FOR LESS THAN
28 DEGREES, PUTTING THIS AREA AT THE BEST CHANCE AT RECEIVING A
FROST ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL, IF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS IN THIS
AREA WELL PAST MIDNIGHT, SOME FLURRIES MAY MIX IN. IF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY, PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY FORM AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 30 AND BECOME SATURATED. EAST OF KS 27
IS WHERE THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT A FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
TUESDAY IS COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. OUR
REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE IS AROUND A 40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE 60S. SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR THE CWA.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
EJECTS EASTWARD AND TAKES US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW,
BUT IT WILL LIKELY MOVE ON AFTER FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
BEGINS FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S FOR FRIDAY
AND 80S FOR SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POPS AROUND 20-30% FOR THE EASTERN CWA
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FOR KGLD, IFR TO MINIMUM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
UNTIL AROUND 16-17Z, WHEN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
LIFTING.
FOR KMCK, IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN AND OUT AS THE EDGE OF THE
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE AIRPORT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR BY 19Z.
FOR BOTH KGLD AMD KMCK, EXPECT WINDS TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-25 KTS RANGE. WE ARE
ALSO FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE 21-03 TIME FRAME, WITH RAIN
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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