149  
FXUS63 KGLD 050003  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
603 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...A BATCH OF CLOUDINESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY  
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A  
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS  
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. SOME MINIMAL ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH THE PASSING MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS WHICH  
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.  
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT  
THIS TIME SO WILL CARRY SILENT POPS WITH THE PASSING BATCH OF  
CLOUDS. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH  
THE NIGHT.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO  
LOW 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID  
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW 70S  
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT  
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE WEST, LOW TO  
UPPER 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH  
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT, IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE IN THE  
850-500MB LAYER SO CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80 FROM HILL CITY TO GOVE AND  
LEOTI. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE  
WEST, LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.  
 
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
AGAIN IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S FROM NORTON AND HILL CITY TO SHARON  
SPRINGS, LEOTI AND TRIBUNE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY  
NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A  
TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. DIGGING TOWARDS  
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE  
MIDWEST THURSDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW FOLLOWING OVER THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE. THE CLOSED LOW REJOINS THE MAIN TROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  
WITH THE BOTTOM EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE  
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE FOLLOWS BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT  
WITH THE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE  
NORTHWESTERN U.S.  
 
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST. A  
LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG THE FRONT  
RANGE FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY.  
 
THE NBM PUT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MORE OF THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY. THIS SEEMED TOO EXTENSIVE  
SO DECREASED POPS DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE  
ARE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD AT ALL TIMES IN THAT TIMEFRAME. THE GFS AND  
ECMWF 12Z RUNS WERE FAIRLY DRY SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF  
THE POPS DECREASE FURTHER. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN AND SNOW  
WITH THE SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP TO  
AROUND FREEZING OR LOWER.  
 
THERE ARE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20% OR LESS IN KIT CARSON AND  
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH  
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.  
 
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S (THURSDAY) TO LOWER 70S  
(WEDNESDAY). LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 40S WITH THE WARMEST  
LOWS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 11Z. GUSTY SOUTH  
WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTS AROUND SUNSET BUT  
REMAIN IN THE 11-14KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. FROM 12Z-16Z SUB VFR CIGS  
ARE POSSIBLE AS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM  
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AFTER 16Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH  
SOUTH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 25KTS.  
 
KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS  
AROUND 13KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL FALL  
BELOW 12KTS AROUND 23Z THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO  
AROUND 5KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 12KTS  
AROUND 15Z THEN GUST OVER 20KTS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND  
SPEEDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS  
MOVING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 11-15Z AND POSSIBLY  
AFFECTING THE GLD TAF AS EARLY MORNING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GO  
ABOVE 96% WHERE EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE  
DEWPOINT VALUES RIGHT AROUND 30 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...NEWMAN  
AVIATION...LOCKHART  
 
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