609
FXUS63 KGLD 061727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER A
LIMITED PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- WINTER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: NW-WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH SUPPLANTS THE LOW- LEVEL
RIDGE PRESENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE TRI-STATE. GFS AND HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
ASSOC/W VERTICAL MIXING MAY FOSTER BREEZY (~15-25 MPH G 30 MPH)
WNW TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36) WHERE ~20-25 KNOT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A 6-7 KFT DEEP MIXED LAYER. IT
APPEARS THAT 'BREEZINESS' WILL DECREASE WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SHALLOWER MIXING (~4-5 KFT AGL) AND WEAKER (10-15 KNOT) LOW-
LEVEL FLOW THEREIN. EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ROUGHLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ALBEIT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZIER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY): MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN (LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM) THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BREEZY (15-25 MPH G 30 MPH) WNW TO
NW WINDS WILL OVERLAP WITH MINIMUM RH READINGS ~20%.
WED-WED NIGHT: SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL (SURFACE TO 850 MB) PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND EJECT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER, AND STRONGER, SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY WHICH IS
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE, MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST
MOSTLY SNOW ON THURSDAY IN COLORADO AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25, WITH
RAIN OR SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. HOWEVER, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCUMULATING AND MAY JUST MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. AS
THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT, THE SECOND ONE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING LIQUID PRECIPITATION
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IN THE COLDER AIR. SNOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND WINDS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT.
PEAK TIME FOR IMPACTS WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF ENOUGH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE.
MODELS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GFS ENSEMBLE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, BOTH IN
THE 2-3" RANGE (10:1 RATIO). HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS, FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. AS MENTIONED, WIND WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, POSSIBLY UP TO 50 MPH AT
TIMES, BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT A
PARTICULARLY COLD SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET BY COMPARISON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW FLURRIES ON SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST, BUT SHOULD NOT
BE IMPACTFUL. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 20. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE MILDER AND NOT AS WINDY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD OVER KMCK
AND KGLD. WINDS FOR BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 22-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL ~15Z WEDNESDAY WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO BE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY OVER KGLD AND WESTERLY OVER KMCK THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS OVER KGLD SHOULD BE LIGHT AT ~5-10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RANDOM GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER KGLD THROUGH ~22Z. KMCK SHOULD SEE WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
~23Z BEFORE DECREASING TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KGLD COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER, MOST LIKELY CIRRUS CLOUDS, CREEP UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
TERMINALS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK
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