068
FXUS63 KGLD 131547
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
947 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA TODAY AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINES WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE
AVOIDED.
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
GOODLAND, HILL CITY, MCCOOK, COLBY AND TRIBUNE...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 FOR NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 55 TO 65 MPH.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST AT THIS TIME.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE USE CAUTION
IF BURNING OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS IN THE 5-6MB
RANGE DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING IN THE DENVER AREA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY DEVELOPED BLOWING DUST/DUST STORM PARAMETERS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR BLOWING DUST, PRIMARILY DUE TO WINDS IN THE
0.5-1KM LAYER BEING WELL BELOW THE NEEDED CRITERIA OF AT LEAST
~45KTS. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS 0-2KM (STEEP) AND 2-2.5KM LAPSE
RATES (FAIRLY STABLE) ARE FAVORABLE HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S (FLAGLER) TO THE LOWER 80S GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, IT BEGINS TO TAKE A
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA AT ITS BASE OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A 980MB SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WILL CREATE FAIRLY LOW WIND SPEEDS...UNDER 10 MPH OR SO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT 20%-30% CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S TO UPPER 40S, COLDEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON THEN TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY SUNSET, THE SURFACE LOW MOVES WITH IT WHILE DEEPENING TO AROUND
974MB. THIS WILL CREATE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 60 MPH ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 (STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO) WHILE TO
THE EAST, THEY'LL BE UNDER 10 MPH. BY THE END OF THE DAY, THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 40 TO 60 MPH, HIGHEST GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH, PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE EXCEPT ADDING HITCHCOCK COUNTY PER
A REQUEST FROM THE NORTH PLATTE OFFICE. I'M STILL HESITANT ON THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE WATCH SEEING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH SO
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER 70S IN THE
HILL CITY AREA BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BLOWING DUST FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH AT THE MOMENT, HOPEFULLY THIS INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REGARDING CONFIDENCE, AREAL COVERAGE AND ANY IMPACTS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WHO/WHEN/WHERE
THE BETTER AND NOT SO GOOD CHANCES WILL BE AS THERE COULD BE
PRECIPITATION (POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS) ACROSS THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH WRAPAROUND RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. LATER
FORECASTS CAN HOPEFULLY PIN DOWN THESE PARAMETERS BETTER THAN WHAT I
DID. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WINDY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY DURING THE
DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. IT LOOKS
TO BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
AN ACTIVE, PROGRESS SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY PERIODIC
UPPER TROUGHS (EVERY ~3 DAYS) WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BREEZY SW TO W WINDS MAY FOSTER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OR ALL OF THE AREA ON BOTH DAYS..
WITH THE RELATIVE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL, ONCE AGAIN, APPROACH 80F. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
RETURN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
EXHIBITS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY WITH REGARD TO
THE EVOLUTION (TRACK, TIMING AND INTENSITY) OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.. LENDING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO CERTAIN ASPECTS OF
THE FORECAST (TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION, IN PARTICULAR).
FROM A PATTERN RECONDITION AND PROBABILITY STANDPOINT.. STRONG
WINDS (AND WIND-RELATED HAZARDS) APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
FORM OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
BOTH TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME. WIND/WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS GOING FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
WINDS FOR KGLD, SOUTH AROUND 15-25KTS THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY. GUSTS
TO 35KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21Z THU-00Z FRI. A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
04Z-17Z AROUND 10KTS. FROM 17Z ONWARD, WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15-30KTS. LLWS 04Z-15Z FRIDAY
220@45KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL 015.
WINDS FOR KMCK, SOUTH AROUND 10-15KTS THROUGH ABOUT 19Z-20Z,
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 15-30KTS. BY 05Z FRIDAY, SPEEDS DROP TO
AROUND 10KTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE FROM ABOUT 13Z ONWARD.
LLWS 05Z-08Z FRIDAY 170@45KTS AND AGAIN 08Z-13Z FRIDAY
220@45KTS. BOTH AT FLIGHT LEVEL 020.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:
GOODLAND........78 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2012
HILL CITY.......83 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
MCCOOK..........82 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2007
COLBY...........78 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1946
TRIBUNE.........78 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2005
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...99
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