672
FXUS63 KGLD 172306
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
506 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH IT DOES BEGIN TO WEAK TOWARDS
SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY, CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONT.
BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY, WHERE THERE MAY BE A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR LANDSPOUTS AS WELL.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AND MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST, WHICH
WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING BOTH DAYS WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG
AVAILABLE, SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL
START THE PERIOD WARM ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S,
THEN COOLING OFF SLIGHT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE UPPER PATTERN HAS THE LOW STILL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. WITHIN THE RIDGE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
IDAHO/MONTANA/WYOMING. ANOTHER LOW IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH OUR POSITION BEING SITUATED BETWEEN THOSE
SYSTEMS, WE'LL UNDERGO A MINOR WARMING AND DRYING TREND EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-70S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2022
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BETWEEN APPROX 08Z-14Z THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE
5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY FOR KGLD. CEILINGS COULD LOWER AT
KGLD DOWN BELOW BKN010 AS WELL DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS FOR KGLD, SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY, THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 14Z, SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THEN NORTHWEST BY
20Z.
WINDS FOR KMCK, SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY, THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 17Z, SOUTH AROUND 10KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN
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