125
FXUS63 KGLD 210349
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
849 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-WIND CHILL READINGS TONIGHT WILL DROP FOR MOST INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO. SOME ISOLATED TEENS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
READINGS.
-A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS WITH A MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER MINNESOTA AND RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BREEZY TO
GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST.
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY ALSO APPROACH 15% AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE RESULTING IN SOME FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BUT
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SOIL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS ACCORDING TO THE
KANSAS MESONET TO HELP MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL; SO WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN. WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES SETTING UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES. A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT MAY HELP KEEP US FROM COMPLETELY
BOTTOMING OUT SO AM GOING TO GO WITH A SIMILAR THOUGHT FORECAST
AS I DID YESTERDAY. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS ACROSS THE AREA SO AM FORECASTING THE ENTIRE AREA TO
FALL AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. FORECAST MODELS
DO REMAIN HIGHER THAN THIS, BUT WITH SIMILAR THINKING FOR LAST
NIGHTS LOWS DOES HELP ME CONFIRM THAT MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A
WARM BIAS AS WE ARE STILL IN THE TRANSITION PORTION OF THE FALL
SEASON. THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE GOING LOWER THAN
THE MODELS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH NOSING INTO THE AREA AS
WELL.
THURSDAY, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WEATHER
AS CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE BECOMING MORE WSW.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS
WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS MAY EVEN GO COMPLETELY CALM
ACROSS THE EAST WHICH IS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
LIE FALLING INTO THE LOW 20S. FURTHER WEST A MIX OF THE WSW
WINDS AND THE WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
DESPITE THE LOW, BUT NOT AS LOW AS TONIGHT DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE, DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
FOR BULK OF THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S, THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER IMPACTS.
ON SUNDAY, COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER SUNDAY, IMPACT OF COLDER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY NOT BE APPARENT
UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGHS STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
AVAILABLE DATA NOT POINTING TO AN OVERLY STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE SO
THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT OR DAMAGING WINDS IS VERY LOW.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW,KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL AND ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW BY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THANKSGIVING TECHNICALLY FALLS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT
PERIOD, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH BULK OF THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS NOT DEVELOPING SUCH A SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE DATA
SPAGHETTI PLOTS FROM GEFS INDICATE A NON TRIVIAL AMOUNT OF MEMBERS
DEVELOPING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS ESSENTIALLY WASH EACH OTHER OUT WHEN
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA. AS THE DATA CURRENTLY STANDS, DO NOT
THINK THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE CHANGING PLANS OR ANYTHING, BUT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP AWARE OF THE FORECAST AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES AND DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 849 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH
TERMINALS (KGLD/KMCK) WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION.
WINDS FOR KGLD, NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 19Z, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS.
WINDS FOR KMCK, NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS FROM 06Z-13Z THURSDAY AND
AGAIN 18Z-22Z, OTHERWISE LIGHT/ VARIABLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JN
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