604
FXUS63 KGLD 230529
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, POSSIBLY
WINDY ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS. ALTHOUGH WILL SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPANDED THE FROST
ADVISORY TO THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST KANSAS WHICH STILL HAS
NOT EXPERIENCED A HARD FREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
LOW MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. MUCAPE WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG, HIGHEST IN
COLORADO, SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER, THOUGH SEVERE IS NOT
EXPECTED. FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TENDS TO DISSIPATE LATE
IN THE EVENING WHILE ANOTHER DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES NORTHEAST INTO
LOGAN AND GOVE COUNTIES WHERE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST. NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS SECOND ROUND WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO ALONG
I-70, WITH ONLY LOWER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH TO THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH, HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-70. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S IN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS MOVE OUT FAIRLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
LEAVING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
(GOVE/NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS) FRIDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT DOES FINALLY MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY NIGHT ENDING ANY
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE DELINEATING
MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM MOSTLY SUNNY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE BACK
EDGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM MCCOOK TO COLBY TO TRIBUNE, WITH
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST IN THE 50S AND TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST
IN THE 60S, MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN COLORADO WHICH SHOULD
BE IN SUN ALL DAY. HOWEVER, THE CLOUDS RETREAT WESTWARD AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING A LOW BEING PINCHED OFF IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, INSTEAD KEEPING IT AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
LESS PRECIPITATION AND MILDER TEMPERATURES, KEEPING THE PHASE
ALL LIQUID. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
BELOW 10 KTS UNTIL 16Z-18Z, IN WHICH THEY SHOULD THEN PICK UP TO
AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...NONE.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
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