258
FXUS63 KGLD 011727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN THREAT IS STRONG WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
EXPECTED LATE DAY FOCUSED LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST CO DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF 40 TO 60 MPH GUSTS.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
ROUND THE 4-CORNERS H5 RIDGE A WEAK-WAVE IMPULSE WILL TRANSCEND OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF WHICH THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE FRONT-RANGE COLLOCATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WITHIN
THE COLUMN THROUGH WHICH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP, WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE EROSION OF THE CAP AND DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY. INVERTED-V SOUNDING SETUP, WITH HIGH BASE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED, EVAPORATIVE COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN, IT IS NO SURPRISE
TO SEE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
BUT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND CORE-LOFTING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OF
CERTAINTY IS THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHEAST CO WITH ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WITH AFOREMENTIONED H5 WEAK IMPULSE.
YET AGAINST N DRIFTING SUB-TROPICAL ENERGY OVER OK / TX AHEAD OF A
DOMINANT TROF AXIS OVER CA, HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE MAINTAINED
OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA AND AREAS AROUND NORTHEAST KS LOOK TO
BE IN FAVORABLE REGIONS OF SUBSIDENCE. A SQUEEZE PLAY.
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER, NO
SURPRISE TO SEE THE GREATER THREAT NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH EXPECTED
DYNAMICS. BUT AGAIN AN EYE ON NORTHEAST CO. S WINDS PREVAILING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES DOWN MOMENTUM AS HIGH AS
10 KFT AGL, ESPECIALLY IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE MID-LEVEL WEAK WAVE IMPULSE. HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MONITORING OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH REMNANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FROM LINGERING DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. WHERE IT
RAINS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW STRATUS, MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
LOW-LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
A BROAD ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE
SHEARING OUT AS A NEW ONE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY, POSSIBLY A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION,
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED. FORCING
IS ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM THE UPPER WAVE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL LOW END
SEVERE RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, BUT MORE OF AN UPSLOPE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
NO REAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
END RESULT WILL BE RATHER TYPICAL WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN THIS PATTERN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A SEVERE RISK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR PREVAILS WITH FEW-SCT 040-080 OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF TSRA
EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST CO BY 22Z SWEEPING GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS KGLD / KMCK BY 6Z AND DISSIPATING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
BOTH LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. S WINDS WITH G20-25KT INTO EARLY
EVENING, DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 KT.
OVERNIGHT, MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LOW CIGS AT KMCK AROUND 6Z TIME-
FRAME. NOT CONFIDENT ON LOWER THAN VFR AT THIS MOMENT, WILL
EVALUATE WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCE.
TOMORROW, MOSTLY SKC BUT CAN'T RULE OUT FEW 040-080 AGAIN. S
WINDS RETURN 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
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