623
FXUS63 KGLD 211049
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2" DIAMETER HAIL AND
70 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
BETWEEN 2-9 PM MDT / 3-10 PM CDT.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24-HR ARE
MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2" DIAMETER HAIL AND
70 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, YET AGAIN, DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OVERVIEW: WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA..
ON THE NNE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALL
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT 08Z THIS
MORNING (REFER TO SPC MESOANALYSIS 400-250 MB POT VORT) WILL
TRACK ESE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO
MOVE ASHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL PROGRESS ESE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING: ONGOING STORMS AT 3 AM CDT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES PRIOR TO EXITING THE
GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA ~4 AM CDT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY: WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SAT AFT-EVE AND EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS, NO DOUBT, DECREASED THE POTENCY OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS, AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RENEWED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM) WILL STILL FOSTER MODERATE DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION (1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) THIS AFTERNOON. THAT'S
RIGHT. ON THE HIGH PLAINS, THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS A WAY.
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST
CO.. AND DPVA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY.. WILL
FACILITATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, BEGINNING ~2-3P MDT (20-21Z). WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50+ KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, SUGGESTING
THAT.. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE
FOR TORNADOES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S.
HYDROLOGY: HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA SATURDAY AFT-EVE AND VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS MUCH AS 3
TO 7.5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF RAWLINS AND
DECATUR COUNTIES, WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4 PM CDT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE REDUCED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY TODAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) WILL POSE A
LOWER OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING, LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24-HR ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE
FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ANOTHER
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
(AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
***MONDAY-WEDNESDAY***
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
500-MB TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST REGION
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COLORADO MONDAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WOULD BE FAVORED TO DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE NEAR COLORADO'S EASTERN BORDER, THOUGH ITS EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF FORMATION IS IN QUESTION. MOST LREF
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AROUND 1200 J/KG OF SURFACE- BASED CAPE (A MEASURE OF
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) OR LESS, THOUGH HIGHER-END SCENARIOS
COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME A 500-MB JET
STREAK AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE STRENGTHENING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GFS AND EC MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD SUPPORT 0-6 KM
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 35-60 KTS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.
STORMS MAY BE ALLOWED TO BECOME SEVERE UNDER THIS SCENARIO.
WHILE ALL HAZARDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SETUP, THIS MAY NEED
TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AS THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SHORT TERM MAY MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT SIGNIFICANTLY
BEFORE THEN.
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY. 850-MB GEFS
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO, AT THE
SAME TIME THAT THE 500-MB TROUGH FROM MONDAY MOVES OVERHEAD.
THIS WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA
WHERE NORTHERLY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MEET. IN ADDITION,
THE 500-MB JET STREAK LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN MAY
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. SURFACE-
BASED CAPE VALUES MAY BE ALLOWED TO GET A LITTLE HIGHER ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAN MONDAY, AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS HAVE GREATER THAN A 50% CHANCE TO
SEE OVER 1000 J/KG BASED ON LREF GUIDANCE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 10-15% IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING.
***THURSDAY-SATURDAY***
GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH RIDGING MOVING IN OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD
PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY, LOWER TO UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY, AND LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY STILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH IS A
LOT MORE UNCERTAIN THAN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF AND WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IS CONTINGENT ON THE PRESENCE AND TIMING OF
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE. GFS AND EC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THAT THESE FEATURES MAY BE
PRESENT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE PRESENCE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES ON THURSDAY, AS NBM 24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE AREA HAS A 50- 70% CHANCE OF SEEING
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THIS CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FRIDAY, AS THE SAME GUIDANCE SHOWS AT BEST A 1 IN 3
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO
DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY BY SATURDAY AS RIDGING TAKES FULL
AFFECT. FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS
WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
GLD: LIFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING
(~15Z). ASIDE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (~22-01Z), VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT (~10 KNOT) N TO E WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
MCK: MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING
(~15Z). ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (~22-02Z), VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT (~10 KNOT) N TO E WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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