526
FXUS63 KGLD 241919
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN UPPER AIR LOW OVER EASTERN SD AND AN UPPER AIR RIDGE TO THE
WEST OF IT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ALLOWING FOR A WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
REPORT DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE
CWA UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY
MOVING EASTWARD. GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY, FORECAST
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PROGRESSING EASTWARD A BIT
TURNING THE CWA'S UPPER AIR FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING
HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH MAKING ITS WAY FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO CENTRAL
KS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ALSO KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF KS-27 LOOK TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS LEADING TO POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE LIGHTER WINDS LOOK TO TEMPER THIS
POSSIBILITY. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TODAY RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S
AND THE MIDDLE 80S FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
ON MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE FLOW OVER THE CWA
BECOMING MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT PART OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RIDGE PROGRESSES OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY WHILE
BUILDING BETWEEN THE EASTERN UPPER AIR LOW MOVING OVER THE IA/MN
BORDER AND AN UPPER AIR TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR A SECOND DAY
WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO COME INTO THE CWA. THERE MAY BE
SOME POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS AROUND
THE CO/KS/NE BORDER, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO
WIND GUSTS LOOKING TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 KTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY FOR THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
RANGE WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BETWEEN THE
UPPER 40S AND MIDDLE 50S.
FOR TUESDAY, FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER AIR RIDGE TILTING
IN A POSITIVE ORIENTATION AS THE EASTERN LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER
THE IA/IL BORDER BY THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS DO KEEP THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA EVEN WITH THE TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVING MORE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE, THE CWA LOOKS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH NE, BUT STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA. WHILE THERE ARE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY, FIRE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN WITH EXPECTED
MINIMUM RH AND MAXIMUM WINDS NOT REACHING FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
TUESDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 40S AND MIDDLE
50S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
FOR THE EXTENDED, THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS REGION THAT MAKES A SLOW TRANSITION EASTWARD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGS EASTWARD AS
IT ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THIS WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE
REGION EXTENSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE FRONT RANGE, SETTING UP
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE LOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE
GFS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR RW TO FORM OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
WORKING ALONG THE WESTERN CWA PERIPHERY, BUT THE TWO MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT, SO WILL LEAVE OFF THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP FOR NOW. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE MIGHT HAPPEN FOR THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, PUSHING THE SURFACE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS ALLOWING
FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO IMPACT THE AREA.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA,
THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT
COULD IMPACT THE CWA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW FAIRLY STAGNANT, THE
GRADIENT LOOKS BEST EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER, WHERE A PERSISTENT
25-35 MPH WILL OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE FIRE WX
CONCERNS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27(RH CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS),
BUT OUR LOCAL BLOWING DUST PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST. FOR FIRE WX, AT LEAST ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT FOR NOW AND COULD WORSEN IF FURTHER DRYING OCCURS. WILL
BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT DUST POTENTIAL IN SOCIAL MEDIA MENTIONING.
GOING INTO NEXT SUNDAY, THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MEANDER
INTO THE CWA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
AREAL COVERAGE COULD BE IMPACTED, LEADING TO A WARMER DAY SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE WED-SAT TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTING.
FOR TEMPS, THE REGION WILL BE LOOKING AT A DAYTIME HIGH RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S FROM WEST TO EAST FOR WEDNESDAY ON
THROUGH SATURDAY. GOING INTO NEXT SUNDAY, A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 25, AND FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, MID
50S INTO THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
BOTH TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION.
WINDS FOR KGLD, W/NW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 09Z, BECOMING W 5-10KTS BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TO LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 14Z.
WINDS FOR KMCK, W/NW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z MONDAY, THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
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