507
FXUS63 KGLD 121617
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
917 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MILD CONDITIONS TODAY.
- WINDY TOWARDS THE MID AND END PART OF THE WEEK. BLOWING DUST
MAY BE POSSIBLE. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE FIRE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS AN 850 MB HIGH OVER
TEXAS EXTENDS A MILD RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SKY
CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY BE CAPPED OUT AROUND 50 TODAY.
WITH THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES, RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER. THANKFULLY WINDS LOOKS TO
BE PRETTY WEAK, LARGELY REMAINING UNDER 20 KTS, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AREAS WITHOUT ANY SNOWPACK WILL COOL TO AROUND
30, POTENTIALLY STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS FROM A LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE
A NORTHWESTERLY 850 MB LLJ THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. RAP, NAM, AND GFS GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE 850 MB RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 21Z
TUESDAY. THIS WEAKENS THE LLJ, DOWN TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM ITS
EARLIER 30-40 KTS FLOW. IF THIS OCCURS, OUR GUSTS FOR TOMORROW
WOULD HIT THEIR PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 18Z AT 25-30 KTS AND WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. IF THE SHORTWAVE DOES NOT
OCCUR, 25-35 KTS GUSTS WOULD BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
AROUND THE TRI-STATE BORDER FOR KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW LOOK TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, AND
THE SNOWPACKED AREA SHOULD BE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S AS THE
BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MELTED. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
CLOSER TO 70 AND/OR THESE WINDS BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR THAN
EXPECTED, RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS,
CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS 60%
CONFIDENCE THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL PLAY OUT WITH RH VALUES
STAYING AT OR ABOVE 20%, LEADING TO MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AND GFDI VALUES IN THE 15-30 RANGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL ENTER THE CWA AND
BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONT. WE COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES, WITH
SOME FLURRIES MIXED IN, ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0-9Z WEDNESDAY.
WE CAN ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP, INCLUDING SOME NORTHERLY
GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS. THESE WINDS AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP THE PBL WELL MIXED, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
30S.
WEDNESDAY, WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST, LIKELY
LEADING TO FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20-35 KTS RANGE WITH SOME 40-45
KTS BEING POSSIBLE. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
50 KTS GUSTS, BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ONLY ABOUT 25% THAT
MULTIPLE 50 KTS WOULD OCCUR. THIS IS BASED ON 45% NBM POTENTIAL
FOR A MAXIMUM GUST GREATER THAN 57 MPH AND 0% LREF CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTABLE COOLER, LIKELY TOPPING
OUT IN THE 40S. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXTREMELY
LOW. LOOKING AT LAPSE RATES, 0-2 RATES IN EASTERN COLORADO COULD
REACH 8.5 C/KM. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, THERE IS A
5-10% CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST IN EASTERN COLORADO. IN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA, LAPSE RATES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE, AROUND 7-8
C/KM, LOWERING THE BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 2-5%.
ADDITIONALLY, THE INCREASED HUMIDITY MAY LOWER THE HELP TO
DECREASE THE BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL, BUT THIS IS AN UNTESTED
HYPOTHESIS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD IN, ALLOWING
THE SKY TO CLEAR AND GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE WINDS. THIS WILL,
HOWEVER ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS BORING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
THURSDAY WE REMAIN UNDER A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING AS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION LIFTS AND MIXING IS FREE TO
OCCUR. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL
SEE WINDS FROM 15- 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE HIGHER WINDS FROM 20-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE IN THE LOWER 20S. WITH THE HIGH WINDS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN IF
WINDS FURTHER DECREASE RH VALUES.
WINDS WILL CALM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE, BUT PICK BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. A TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION DIGS TOWARDS OUR
AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 40S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 35-45 KNOTS. THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE GUSTS OF APPROXIMATELY 50
KNOTS. THE NBM IS SHOWING PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 60% FOR
GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS TO OCCUR FOR THE CWA. IF THE TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER WEST, WE COULD SEE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IF OUR CWA ENDS
UP UNDER A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IF IT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST,
WINDS COULD WEAKEN. RH VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW 20S AND GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX (GFDI) VALUES RANGE FROM
35-65. THESE, PLUS THE HIGH WINDS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
FRIDAY WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ABOVE
9.5 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 6. THESE SUPPORT MIXING
AND A CAP LOW ENOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST.
HOW SATURDAY PLAYS OUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE TROUGH SETS UP
IN OUR REGION. IF THE FORECAST STAYS ON THE CURRENT TRACK,
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HIGH WIND DAY. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 20S AGAIN, SO
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE INCREASED, ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE
DAYS OF HIGH WINDS FURTHER DECREASE RH VALUES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THINGS RETURN TO A FAMILIAR WARM AND CALMER
PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA
SEEING GUSTS IN THE HIGH 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 915 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO OCCASIONAL WISPS OF
CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 20,000 FT AGL. WNW TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
MAY SPORADICALLY GUST TO ~20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE W AND DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET
(~23Z) AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WNW TO
NW AND INCREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING (~17-18Z),
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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