524
FXUS62 KJAX 100008
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
808 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SGJ, WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A HEAVIER RAIN BAND
POTENTIALLY MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO INDICATE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AT SGJ, SO WE MAINTAINED
A PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 04Z-08Z TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL EITHER
CONTINUE OR WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS AND GNV, WHERE A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT SSI, WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY THIN
OUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP NEAR
THE SGJ AND GNV TERMINALS AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE
AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV BY 21Z. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT SGJ THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WHILE SPEEDS ELSEWHERE DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AFTER 14Z.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, MOVING
FROM COASTAL LOCATIONS AND TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NE FL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS FOR
INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS, SATELLITE OBS OF 2+ INCHES OF PWATS
OVERHEAD. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH A FEW STORMS
EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGHEST
GUSTS STILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO TAMPER OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT GUSTY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE TODAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPS FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH SEE PERSISTENT WAVES OF SHOWERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
COAST AND NE FL, WITH UPPER 60S ALONG INTERIOR SE GA.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE OUTER BANKS
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE EAST COAST TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL GIVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THE OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH FROM THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE SRN
ZONES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE (LOWER
CHANCE THAN TODAY AND MONDAY), BUT FURTHER SUPPRESSION OF THE RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND ALSO MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY THIS PERIOD. LITTLE
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU MORNINGS WILL BE ABOUT 2-5 DEG BELOW
NORMAL, PROBABLY MORE SO UP TO 5-9 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA WITH LOWS NEAR 60 DEG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DIG SLIGHTLY INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY REFLECT AS A DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST AGAIN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL
ALSO ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD, WILL BE LIMITED
TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND NORTHEAST FL, WITH CHANCES OF 20-30
PERCENT AT BEST. FURTHER REDUCTION IN THE POPS POSSIBLE SAT-MON
WITH SOME GUIDANCE HAVING THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOWS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE WIDE RANGES IN OVERNIGHT READINGS OF AROUND 10-12
DEGREES BETWEEN COAST AND INLAND. A WARMING TREND FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S (COASTAL) TO LOWER 90S (INLAND).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, PROMPTING A SLIGHT EXTENSION OF THE SCA CURRENTLY IN
PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HYDROLOGY/COASTAL FLOODING
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG WITH THE RECENT FULL MOON WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
WINDS COME DOWN A BIT FURTHER WEDNESDAY WHILE TURNING SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHERLY, POTENTIALLY DECREASING COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS
ALONG THE COAST, BUT LINGERING HIGH WATER LEVELS LIKELY WITHIN
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
ALL AREAS HAVE SEEN THE WATER LEVELS INCREASE THE PAST 2 DAYS, BUT
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST SINCE SUNDAY. AS FAR AS RECENT COASTAL
WATER LEVEL STATIONS IN THE PAST 12-18 HOURS, LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST GENERALLY REPORT ABOUT 2 TO 2.3 FT MHHW, AND 1.6 TO 2 FT
MHHW FOR ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. SOME LOCALIZED MODERATE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE IT'S MORE FLOOD
PRONE OR DIFFICULT TO DRAIN OUT BETWEEN TIDES, BUT, AT THIS TIME,
NOT TO THE EXTENT TO TRIGGER A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 86 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 72 83 70 84 / 30 10 0 10
JAX 72 85 68 86 / 50 30 10 10
SGJ 73 83 74 85 / 70 50 20 20
GNV 70 86 68 88 / 50 40 10 10
OCF 72 85 71 86 / 50 60 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
FLZ124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ450-452-470-
472.
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