788
FXUS62 KJAX 011804
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
104 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS 15-20F
- FREEZE WARNING AREA-WIDE TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE. ANOTHER FREEZE LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. RH VALUES UNDER 30% AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH ONGOING DROUGHT.
- MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF TODAY, A DEEP MID / UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE EXCEPT
FOR STRATOCU OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS OUT ABOUT 40
TO 60 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST WINDS OF ABOUT 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE FURTHER BY 5-6 PM. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE
LOWER 40S WHICH WILL LIKELY MEET THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR TODAY. AS
FAR AS SURFACE MOISTURE, LOOKS LIKE RECORD SETTING DEWPOINTS TODAY
WITH VALUES OF ONLY 5-10 DEGREES TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NEAR 5-
10 MPH, PROBABLY DROPPING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THAT AT TIMES, AND
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S, WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE
WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS INLAND AREAS...SO ONCE AGAIN A WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE. DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECT WIND CHILL
VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NE FL/SE GA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NE FL MAY REACH EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA BELOW 15F, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IN PLACE. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST ARE FORECAST, THOUGH
THE SURFACE RH OF LESS THAN 80-85 PERCENT MAY HELP LIMIT IT IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WHILE A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEARD,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS WAS FELT ON SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AS CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOP. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AREA-WIDE, WITH
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND THE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD
FROST AND A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH A FREEZE
WARNING TO BE ISSUED IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.
BY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA. THE
WARMER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING COME TUESDAY NIGHT
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S,
WITH THE LOWER TEMPERATURES BEING FELT OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AS
CLEARER SKIES WILL BE FOUND OVER OUR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WEDNESDAY IS
TRENDING TO BE WET AS NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREAD FROM
NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LATE
MORNING, AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AND
DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN. THOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SHOW TEMPERATURES WON'T DROP
AS MUCH AS THIS PAST WEEKEND, THERE STILL WILL LIKELY BE A NEED FOR
FREEZE PRODUCTS COME THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BUT THE WARM-UP WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDS WITH SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS OF 10-15G20KT EXPECTED
UNTIL AROUND 6 PM TODAY, THEN BECOME NW TO W AROUND 5-10 KT FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
MARINE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW, A PERIOD OF LOW WATER LEVELS
REMAINS POSSIBLE AROUND LOW TIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TUESDAY WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO FALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HIGH RISK ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SOME
NORTHEAST SWELLS AFFECT THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW RH VALUES AREA CONTINUE ON MONDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ON MONDAY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY WIDE WIDESPREAD MINRH VALUES UNDER 30%. DISPERSIONS WILL GOOD
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AND RH MODERATE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD AND EAST OF THE
REGION BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COMBINED IMPACT OF ALREADY SEASONABLY LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY COULD CREATE LOW MEAN LOWER LOW WATER
LEVELS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PARTS OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS CHALLENGED BY THE ARCTIC COLD AIR OUTBREAK ARE
BELOW. RECORD REPORTS WILL BE ISSUED TODAY ON THE RECORD COLD
THIS MORNING:
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1:
JAX 42/1900
CRG 44/1980
GNV 41/1909
AMG 42/1980
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1:
JAX 24/1977
CRG 29/1977
GNV 25/1977
AMG 22/1977
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2:
JAX 23/1979
CRG 27/1980
GNV 25/1980
AMG 19/1951
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 21 52 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 26 52 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 23 55 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 26 54 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 21 55 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 21 55 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-
350-364.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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