988  
FXUS62 KJAX 162024  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
424 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2019  
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED FROM THE  
FORECAST AREA WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THROUGH  
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, AS THE RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE FROM  
THE NORTH SETTLES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID  
70S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST.  
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY/
 
 
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO RIDGING AND DRY  
AIR FROM OUT OF THE NORTH PRESSING OVER THE REGION AS HURRICANE  
HUMBERTO MOVES FURTHER OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING  
BACKDOOR FRONT FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING IN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASED  
SURFACE WINDS FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS FRONT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING COASTAL AND COASTAL ADJACENT  
COUNTIES ALONG THE ST JOHNS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE  
SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S  
FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 90S AND UPPER 80S FOR AREAS  
ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. HEAT INDEX  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE DUE TO THE  
LOW RH VALUES, RANGING BETWEEN 35-45% FOR INLAND AREAS. OVERNIGHT  
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR COASTAL ADJACENT AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL  
DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN THE  
LOWER 90S & UPPER 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPS SPANNING THE MID  
60S & MID 70S.  
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN DURING THE END OF THE WEEK  
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, CULMINATING WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON  
SUNDAY, WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES.  
PRIOR TO THE DRY WEEKEND, EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE  
HEAVIEST DEVELOPMENTS OCCURING NEAR THE COASTLINE. WIND SPEEDS  
WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE PREVAILING  
WIND FLOW SHIFTING FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO MORE DIRECTLY OUT  
OF THE EAST. MAX TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ARE FORECASTED TO  
REMAIN BELOW 90, IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID  
TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST, AND THEN WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR  
INLAND REGIONS DURING THE WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS REACHING  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS  
FOUR DAY PERIOD WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND  
AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE SHORELINE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE NE FL  
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER, WITH  
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT SGJ. BREEZY NNE WINDS WILL NEAR 12-14  
KTS AT THE COAST WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH LATE  
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS INLAND AT  
VQQ AND GNV TODAY. TONIGHT, DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT  
WINDS INLAND, FOG NOT EXPECTED TO DUE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST OF THE LOCAL MARINE  
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE  
IN SPEED, HOWEVER, ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN LOCAL  
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE  
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE  
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES IN THE  
FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE  
AREA, BUT ITS PROXIMITY TO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN  
FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS  
TOMORROW. ELEVATED WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGHOUT  
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THE INFLUX OF DRIER  
AIR WILL RESULT RH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 30-40% OVER INLAND  
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 69 96 71 90 / 0 0 0 40  
SSI 75 90 76 86 / 10 10 10 30  
JAX 73 92 73 88 / 10 0 10 30  
SGJ 75 89 75 86 / 10 10 10 30  
GNV 70 94 70 91 / 0 0 0 40  
OCF 71 94 70 91 / 10 0 0 30  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL DUVAL-  
COASTAL FLAGLER-COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL ST. JOHNS.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL DUVAL-  
COASTAL FLAGLER-COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL ST. JOHNS.  
 
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-  
COASTAL GLYNN.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM  
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-  
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO  
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20  
TO 60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS  
FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-  
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL  
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER  
BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
CORLESS/KENNEDY/PETERSON  
 
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