662
FXUS62 KJAX 151815
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
115 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- VERY COLD TONIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF SE GA
AND NE FL. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY NE FL - WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY INLAND SE GA
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR GALE
FORCE
- POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND SE GA SUNDAY MORNING
- CONSECUTIVE FROST/FREEZE NIGHTS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
AXIS OF A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA AND
USHERS IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
CENTERED ALONG THE NW GULF COAST AND SABINE VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR REGION. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DROP OUR DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER SE GA WHERE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS
POSTED. TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE 40S OVER SE GA AND LOW 50S OVER
NE FL WILL RISE LITTLE, IF AT ALL BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER
NE FL AS WE APPROACH SUNSET AND THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER SE GA.
TONIGHT, THE STAGE IS SET FOR A THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON AS
THE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN SETTLES OVER
NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AND
VERY LIGHT. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL NE FL AND SE GA
AREAS. THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS INLAND SE GA
WHERE LOW 20S TO AROUND 20 DEGREES (WHERE HARD FREEZE IS BELOW 25F)
EXPECTED AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS SUPPLY COLDER AIR AND THEN CALM
AND WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HELP MAXIMIZE THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECT. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER NE FL AREAS WEST
OF US-17 WITH LOW TO MID 20S (WHERE HARD FREEZE IS LESS THAN 27F).
THE IMMEDIATE SE GA COAST WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S AND THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FROM DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO
THE COAST.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS AND THE WIND TODAY WILL ELIMINATE ANY RISK OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ROADWAYS/BRIDGES BEFORE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE TONIGHT.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE LATE THIS EVENING AFTER 4AM
FOR WIND CHILLS LOWERING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS NE FL. IF
OUT AND ABOUT, DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS INCLUDING A HAT AND GLOVES.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY AND NEIGHBORS WHO MAY NEED TO STAY WARM AND
BRING YOUR PETS INDOORS, COVER OUTDOOR PLANTS AND TURN OFF WATER TO
SPRINKLERS. ALSO, ALLOW PIPES TO DRIP WHERE A HARD FREEZE IS
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF FRIDAY ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A RATHER QUICK MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, BUT NOT BEFORE A VERY COOL DAY IN
STORE FOR FRIDAY. DESPITE ALMOST FULLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY, TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 60 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN THE CWA, WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S FORECAST AREA WIDE. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD GIVEN
THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION AS WELL SOME CLOUDS STARTING TO FILL IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING MAINLY LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AT THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THAT BEING
SAID, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO WESTERN AREAS BY THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY, BUT MOST
OF OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS MOST SIGNIFICANT FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (MORE ON THAT
BELOW). GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, MORE
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS WILL BE EXPECTED IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
LOSE FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BAROCLINIC ZONE OF SORTS AHEAD OF THE BASE
OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF SUNDAY MORNING AND
SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FILL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH GAINS MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO MAKE MORE
FORWARD PROGRESS DROPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL
BE A MORE COMPLICATED ONE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
FRONTS, AS A DRY, ARCTIC AIR MASS DO A BETTER JOB OF "CATCHING
UP" TO THE DYNAMICALLY FORCED PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. PUT SIMPLY, THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT BOTH THE ONSET AND DURING THE EVENT ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH EVEN FURTHER COOLING OF
MUCH OF THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
ONGOING ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW MIXING IN
WITH THE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR GA.
THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS SLOWLY RISING, THERE IS STILL A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SEVERAL FACTORS FOR
CONDITIONS TO BE JUST RIGHT FOR THIS TO OCCUR, INCLUDING HOW FAR
SOUTH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE AND EXTENT OF THE
COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILLING IN ALOFT. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME,
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AREA WIDE WITH CHANCES FOR A MIX
WITH SNOW INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BEGINNING IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AND THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEING ALOFT, FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, ARE LIKELY TO
BE A COATING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN TOO WARM.
AS ONE MAY EXPECT, HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE, THOUGH WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S OVER INLAND
GA AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. EVEN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER INLAND GA, SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAINFALL
CAN VERY MUCH STILL OCCUR GIVEN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.
SKIES CLEAR OUT SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL, THOUGH AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING AND A HARD FREEZE INLAND: WIDESPREAD 20S ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INLAND, AND LOW 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MERGING WITH ANOTHER HIGH
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE THEN SLIDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN THE POSITION OF
HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH SOME MODERATION WILL START TO OCCUR BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE ONSHORE AS THE HIGH MOVES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AT EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. CONSECUTIVE FROST/FREEZE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
INLAND AREAS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP BREEZY NORTHWEST AROUND 15-
18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 24-28 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS 5.0 KFT OVER NE FL WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM INLAND AFTER 08Z AND
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR GALE
FORCE. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW TODAY AND FRIDAY
NE FL MODERATE TODAY AND LOW FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INLAND SE GA TODAY
- AREAS OF LOW DISPERSION NORTH-CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, BRINGING GOOD TO PATCHY HIGH
DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 20-
30% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK MIXING, AS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CRITERIA COMBINED WITH
THE DRY FUELS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DECREASING SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH CLOSER TO THE FAIR
RANGE OVER SOUTHEAST GA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS ALONG WITH ANOTHER COLD AND DRY AIRMASS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. A LIGHT INLAND
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY FRIGHT NIGHT, THEN EACH NIGHT FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING JANUARY 16TH...
BELOW ARE RECORDS FOR CLIMATE SITES AND YEAR IN WHICH THEY OCCURRED.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
JAN 16TH:
JAX: 22/1927
GNV: 20/1927
AMG: 21/1948
CRG: 25/1978
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 20 54 34 64 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 27 53 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 24 57 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 30 56 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 24 59 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 24 58 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ021-
023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
533-633.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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