327
FXUS62 KJAX 141212
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
812 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL THIS
MORNING. USE CAUTION WHEN COMMUTING THIS MORNING!
- NEAR CRITICAL AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH FRIDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTORMS RETURN FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
UPDATE
FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING (AND WILL
CANCEL REMAINDER OF DENSE ADVISORY SOON). WILL BE A NICE DAY AS A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE FORECASTS FOR THE FOG AND ADJUST WINDS A BIT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY
A DRY COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE A FEW REMNANT COASTAL SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS WELL TO THE EAST. WESTERLY WINDS UNDER
5 MPH INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH FROM THE NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH
PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF US 301. THE FRONT
IS DRIVEN BY A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
OVER SE GA AND THE LOW 60S OVER INLAND NE FL WEST OF US 301 WITH MID
60S ALONG I-95 AND THE COAST WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING IN A SIMILAR
FASHION.
DRY, SUNNY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS FROM THE NW WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. A FEW FLAT CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG HEATING WITH HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S
OVER NE FL AND THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER SE GA.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
COOLER AIR ADVECTION TO BRING LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW 50S WITH ISOLATED UPPER 40S OVER SE GA,
LOW TO MID 50 ALONG I-10, MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL FL AND MODERATE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE NE FL AND SE
GA COAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
10-15 MPH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES BECOMING MORE
CLOUDY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD AND
PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS ABOUT TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE PRESSES INLAND FROM OUT
OF THE ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S ON THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILARLY WARMING TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH INTO
MIDWEEK AS MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY BOUTS OF CONVECTION WILL
BE TIED WITH THE DIURNAL EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, DEVELOPING INITIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND PROGRESSING INLAND. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TRENDING
A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
SEVERAL TAFS HAVE LIFR INCLUDING JAX, CRG, SGJ, AND VQQ. STARTING TO
GET SOME FOG AT CRG, BUT ALL THE FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND VFR WILL RETURN. PASSAGE OF
DRY COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY EXCEPT
FOR A FEW CUMULUS TODAY. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AT ABOUT
8-12 KT AND GUSTS OF 20 KT. WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND TURN
MORE NORTHERLY.
MARINE
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL SPILL OVER THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY MORNING NEARING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS WITH BREEZY EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND NEAR
BERMUDA WITH DAILY ATLANTIC SEABREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES WITH A
LOW RISK AT SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE AFTERNOON ATLANTIC SEABREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE TODAY
- NEAR CRITICAL DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDLY VALUES TODAY
AND FRIDAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DAYTIME MINRH
VALUES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO RISE TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CRITERIA LEVELS TODAY. AREA-WIDE
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE
PASSING OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ELEVATED DISPERSION LEVELS
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS OVERALL
WIND FLOW SHIFT TO BECOME MORE FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF US 301 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND ALONG PORTIONS OF I-95 AND I-10 CORRIDORS IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 52 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 86 61 79 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 87 55 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 88 62 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 88 55 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 88 59 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ024-124-
125-225-232-425.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ166.
MARINE...NONE.
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