012
FXUS62 KJAX 050904
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
404 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NW OF THE REGION OVER
SOUTHERN AL WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TOWARDS COASTAL GA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST AT THIS
HOUR, A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN ALONG THE NE FL COAST TO
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN
THE MID 40S COMPARED TO THE REST OF NE FL LINGERING IN THE LOWER
40S AS CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM SE GA INTO NE FL LATER THIS
MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 10-15 MPH
AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THEN BEGINNING TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
TX COAST.
TONIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARRIVING SOUTH OF I-10 OVER NE FL BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. NORTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT THE COAST AROUND 10-15
MPH OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 5-10 MPH INLAND. LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND AROUND 50 AT THE
SE GA COAST AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH
LOW 50S OVER INLAND NE FL AND MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE NE FL
COAST.
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH REGION AS A GULF LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO
MOST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF WAYCROSS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STABLE, COOLER
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND GENERALLY KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT. SHOWERS COME TO AN END
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLEARING SKIES AND ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER,
THE BETTER FROST COVERAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
DRY WEEK AHEAD WITH A WARMING TREND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING THE
REGION DRY AND MAINTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY]
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS, THEN WINDS INCREASE AFTER 13Z
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 13Z-15Z AT KSSI
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND THEN BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 15Z-16Z AT ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AND WINDS INLAND
8-10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z OVER THE REGION
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 2.5 KFT SNEAKING
IN AT KGNV AND KVQQ. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF WEST OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE 06Z PERIOD.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA WATERS
EARLY TODAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EXIT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY, THEN NORTH MONDAY, AND NORTHEAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY
NE FL: HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY
HYDROLOGY
MANY RIVER SITES REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD ALONG THE ALTAMAHA, SANTE FE,
AND THE SATILLA BASINS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS MOST OF THE
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY SHOULD FALL SOUTH OF THESE BASINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 45 61 37 61 / 0 10 10 0 0
SSI 63 50 60 43 60 / 0 10 30 10 0
JAX 69 51 61 44 62 / 0 20 40 20 0
SGJ 68 56 62 49 61 / 0 20 50 30 0
GNV 75 51 61 41 66 / 0 30 60 20 0
OCF 77 53 65 44 68 / 0 30 60 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL FLAGLER-COASTAL NASSAU-
COASTAL ST. JOHNS.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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