820
FXUS62 KJAX 261804
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PORTIONS WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
- NIGHTLY RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE NEAR AREA FIRES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT
- AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE NEAR ONGOING WILDFIRES
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRESSING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE DRIER THAN FORECAST MODELS . WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WIND
SPEEDS BECOMING BREEZIER OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. PLUMES
FROM WILDFIRES WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT, WITH SMOKE SPREADING MORE
INLAND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ALONG THE SHORELINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR AREAS NEARER
TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD (MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT):
- BREEZY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
- ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK
- GENERALLY DRY AND NOT AS WARM
MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS ON MONDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING, THEN
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
INLAND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 TO 25 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN EXPOSED INLAND
AREAS. MODELS SHOW RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW NIL, AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH FARTHER DOWN THE PENINSULA THAN PREVIOUS TRENDS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 AND LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP INLAND
WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE.
TUESDAY: THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, ALLOWING A WARMING TREND
TO BEGIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. EAST WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
TUESDAY NIGHT: THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TAP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG TWO DIFFERENT FRONTS
KEY MESSAGE:
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY: A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING NEAR THE MID SOUTH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE GA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE NORTH OF WAYCROSS.
THURSDAY: MORE ORGANIZED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RISE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT
AREA WIDE. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
FRIDAY: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS IN 80S. A FEW ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING.
SATURDAY: ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING A RENEWED INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL IN QUESTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S. OVERALL,
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION, WITH PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY TIED TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
RECORD HIGH OR TWO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
REST OF THE WEEK IT WILL TREND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BUILD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INITIALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT ABOUT TO BECOME MORE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND 02Z-04Z WITH WIND SPEEDS BUILDING TO
ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KNOTS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBSCURATION CAUSED BY A WILDFIRE TO THE EAST
CAN AFFECT VISIBILITY LEVELS AT SSI THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LESS OF
A CONCERN FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE TODAY AND WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT, WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT STRENGTHENING
SOMEWHAT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH CAUTION TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AS A WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH SURF AROUND 1-2 FT. RIP CURRENT
RISK INCREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE
FLOW WITH RISK INCREASING TOWARD HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON
- HIGH DISPERSION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS PRESSED INTO THE FIRST COAST THIS LATE
MORNING AND WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SE GA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MONDAY WITH A MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL TO AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT
WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH ELEVATED DISPERSION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA WEDNESDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 60 81 55 87 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 64 72 64 78 / 20 0 10 0
JAX 63 77 60 84 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 65 76 65 81 / 10 10 10 0
GNV 63 84 59 89 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 64 85 62 89 / 10 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ450-
452-470-472.
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