895  
FXUS62 KJAX 241324  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
924 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
   
..NEW CLIMATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 840 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY AS RIDGING  
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA, ALONG WITH DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT DROPPING PWATS LESS THAN  
2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS THE EAST COAST/GULF COAST SEA BREEZES PUSH  
INLAND AND MEET NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT,  
ALONG WITH A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60  
MPH. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND  
AROUND 90F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH  
HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-106F RANGE THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
A FAIRLY DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN  
SEA NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION, NEAR AND EAST OF 90W.  
A WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR  
87W. CURRENT 1000-500 MB STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA IS EAST TO  
EAST- SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KT WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY  
AT 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER  
PARTS OF GA WHERE PWATS ARE HIGHER AND BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE EXISTS.  
 
FOR TODAY, OVERALL LOWER RAIN CHANCES OWING TO SOME DRIER AIR  
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, ALIGNING WITH THE PREVAILING  
MEAN STEERING FLOW DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WITH PWATS NEAR SEASONAL  
NORMALS OF ABOUT 1.8 INCHES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTN HOURS, AND WILL SEE  
SOME ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOUT 60 PERCENT AROUND THE BROAD AREA  
OF I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW ALLOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO  
MERGE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR I-75. WILL HAVE CHANCES ABOUT  
30 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 50-60 PERCENT WELL INLAND  
OVER NORTHEAST FL. LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST GA INLAND  
ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT WHERE LESS CONVERGENCE IS NOTED. SOME HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES  
FOR WELL INLAND AREAS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 2000-2500  
J/KG, AND DCAPE OF ABOUT 800 IS INDICATED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.  
 
FOR HIGHS, TEMPS OF THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S/90 AT THE  
COAST. MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE SHY OF ANY HEAT ADVISORIES TO  
ABOUT 104-107. AFTER SCATTERED CONVECTION ENDS INLAND IN THE EVENING,  
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE MID 70S INLAND AND TOWARD  
UPPER 70S COAST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH THIS  
MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF  
FL DURING THE END OF THE WEEK, MOVING OVER NORTH FL BY SATURDAY  
MORNING, AND FINALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF LATE SATURDAY  
EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER DRY AIR TOWARDS THE FL  
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY, RESULTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM  
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS. THE OUTLIERS WILL  
BE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER FOR FRIDAY WITH EACH MODEL RUN  
AS THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE  
TO DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE  
FL PENINSULA AND TOWARDS THE GULF WATERS. WITH THAT SAID, WITH  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY, CAN'T RULE OUT SHOWERS  
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES  
INLAND.  
 
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO  
TICK UPWARD ONCE AGAIN, RISING CLOSE TO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND  
LOCATIONS, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE COAST ON FRIDAY.  
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER AS INLAND RISE  
TO THE UPPER 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING THE TRIPLE  
DIGITS AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES.  
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT HEAT  
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, MORE SO ON  
SATURDAY, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TOWARDS THE GULF DURING THE BACK HALF OF  
THE WEEKEND, DRY AIR OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO  
BRING LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOCAL AREA ASIDE  
FROM POSSIBLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS  
IT MOVES INLAND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE  
AGAIN DURING THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO TUESDAY  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, POTENTIALLY  
REACHING NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SOME LOCATIONS, COASTAL  
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH THE SEA BREEZE OFFERING SOME  
RELIEF. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLAY EACH DAY INTO MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
LOW STRATUS AT INLAND TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CONDS AT  
GNV AND VQQ, WITH POSSIBLY REACHING JAX JUST AFTER SUNRISE.  
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF  
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE LIFTING OF STRATUS BY 13-15Z TIME FRAME.  
RAINFALL CHANCES MUCH LOWER TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TRIM  
BACK THE PROB30 GROUPS TO JUST VCSH AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AND  
CONTINUE JUST PROB30 FOR TSRA ACTIVITY TO JUST GNV/VQQ THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. EXPECT  
MAINLY VFR CONDS TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL LATE NIGHT FOG AT  
VQQ/GNV TOWARDS MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF  
BERMUDA, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEST TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH  
FRIDAY, WITH PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT  
THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS WEEKEND  
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL  
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN THE  
FORECAST GIVEN THE MIDDAY LOW TIDE, INCREASED TIDAL RANGE, AND  
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL, SURF WILL AT MOST BE 1-2 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...  
 
SAT 7/26 SUN 7/27 MON 7/28  
 
JACKSONVILLE, FL 102/1872 100/1872 104/1872  
GAINESVILLE, FL 100/1952 101/1893 97/2010  
CRAIG AIRPORT, FL 97/2012 99/2010 98/2016  
ALMA, GA (AMG) 101/2012 99/2014 100/2006  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 94 74 95 74 / 30 10 30 10  
SSI 88 79 90 79 / 20 10 10 0  
JAX 93 76 95 75 / 30 10 30 0  
SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 30 20 30 0  
GNV 93 74 95 74 / 50 40 40 10  
OCF 92 74 94 75 / 70 60 50 10  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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