121
FXUS62 KJAX 231645
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1245 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES. MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
- NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
WHERE: INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE I-75
AND I-95 CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. MAIN
HAZARDS:WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AT URBAN AND NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE
LOCATIONS POSSIBLE.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.
- DAILY HEAT INDEX OF 95-105 F DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HISTORIC DROUGHT & ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES.
UPDATE
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WAVY, STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1037
MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIME REGION TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT, WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE (1026 MILLIBARS) CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO
EXTEND ITS AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED ATLANTIC RIDGING
HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST ENOUGH EASTWARD BY TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO CREATE A GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 600 MILLIBARS (AROUND 15,000
FEET) PER THE MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE, WITH PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY WINDS BELOW 600 MILLIBARS.
LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES MOISTENING AREA-WIDE IN THE PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, WITH PWATS MOSTLY IN THE 1.75 - 2
INCH RANGE NOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EARLIER THIS
MORNING ALONG THE FL BIG BEND / NATURE COAST DECAYED AS IT
PUSHED INLAND TOWARDS I-75, LEAVING BEHIND A CIRROSTRATUS CANOPY
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THAT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY
THINNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE ACTIVITY
WAS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10-15 MPH. DESPITE EXTENSIVE
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING TO THE
85-90 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 16Z, WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MUGGY MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE COOLED OFF ENOUGH TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CANOPY OF LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION THINS OUT. WE EXPECT THAT HIGHER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY CONCENTRATE ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301
AND I-95 CORRIDORS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THEN
SHIFTING COVERAGE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY ADVECT ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
TODAY TO KEEP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS
EVENING , WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOWERS POSSIBLY BEING
STEERED BACK TOWARDS THE U.S.-301 AND I-95 CORRIDORS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
COLLIDING MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT TO FEED OFF OF, WITH ML CAPE VALUES RISING TO 1,500
- 2,000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW STORMS
PULSING TO STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THESE PULSING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST
WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SLOWER MOVING OR BACK-BUILDING
STORMS COULD PRESENT A LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK, MAINLY FOR URBAN OR
LOW-LYING, NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEFORE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE INCREASES, WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100
EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOW TO THIN OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT,
KEEPING LOWS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
SUNDAY, JUICY AIRMASS (PWATS 1.8-2.1 IN.) WILL PROMOTE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO CONVERGE MAINLY BETWEEN I-75 AND
HWY 301 CORRIDORS. SOME SHORTWAVES ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE UPPER SW FLOW AND MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION. STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POTENTIAL
HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS
INTO NE FL ON MONDAY REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 100. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S
FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID 70S FOR AREAS NEAR THE
SHORELINE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
- HOT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK. LINGERING DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES ON TUESDAY. COVERAGE INCREASES MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND A DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BELOW
SEASONABLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2,500 - 3,000 FEET ARE EXPECTED
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 18Z, BEFORE CEILINGS
LIFT ABOVE 3,000 FEET BY 19Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BEGIN DEVELOPING TOWARDS 19Z ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH
ACTIVITY THEN POTENTIALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS AFTER 22Z. TEMPO GROUPS
FOR BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, ALONG WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AT JAX, VQQ, AND GNV, WITH
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT
THESE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOWER AT CRG, SGJ, AND SSI. PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEFLY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, WERE USED AT THE CRG AND SGJ TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 04Z SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR
VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT SSI, AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CLUSTER OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT VQQ,
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT THE REST OF THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE SSI
AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS BY 17Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS BY 19Z. OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 20Z.
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF OUR LOCAL WATERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS INCREASING SPEEDS TO CAUTION LEVELS FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WATERS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH
ACTIVITY THEN BECOMING MORE ISOLATED ON MEMORIAL DAY AND
TUESDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA AS PREVAILING
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LONGER PERIOD (9-10 SECOND) EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL AND
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS, FEATURING BREAKERS OF 2-4
FEET, WILL COMBINE WITH STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE TO CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER SURF HEIGHTS,
FEATURING BREAKERS AROUND 2 FEET, WILL KEEP A HIGHER END
MODERATE RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WITH
AN ELEVATED RISK (LIKELY HIGH) EXPECTED AT ALL AREA BEACHES DUE
TO BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS COMBINING WITH A PERSISTENT OCEAN SWELL
AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS TO INCREASE THE RISK,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
BOTH DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS TO FAIR TO GOOD. THE SEA BREEZES WILL SHIFT INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
FLOW, THE SEA BREEZE MERGER WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN THE I-75 AND
US 301 CORRIDORS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. POTENTIAL HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
LOWERING STORM COVERAGE TO SCATTERED. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO GOOD TO POTENTIALLY HIGH
DISPERSIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO THIS WEEKEND. ERRATIC WINDS DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DESPITE THE UPWARD TREND, THE VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
(LOWER TO MID 70S) MAY RESULT IN SOME RECORD WARM MINIMUMS AT
JACKSONVILLE, CRAIG AIRPORT, AND GAINESVILLE. THIS PATTERN
STARTS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 86 68 87 / 80 70 50 80
SSI 75 87 76 87 / 50 50 30 30
JAX 73 89 74 90 / 50 60 30 40
SGJ 75 89 76 89 / 50 50 20 30
GNV 72 91 72 92 / 70 70 50 60
OCF 72 90 73 90 / 60 70 50 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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