927
FXUS62 KJAX 252332
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
632 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT AREAS:
INLAND WEST OF I-95
- COLD WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. INLAND FREEZES TUESDAY &
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MONDAY & TUESDAY. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TUESDAY
UPDATE
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE NE GULF RESULTING IN A LIGHT WEST OR VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE
REGION. FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH DENSER AREAS OF FOG
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED TOWARDS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FAIRLY STAGNANT AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP
LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF SLOWLY EASES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA. MEAN LAYER FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS
WESTERLY KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MS VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY HELPING TO INCREASE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
OVERALL, MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS PERIOD BUT AGAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR LATE DECEMBER. WE PROBABLY
WON'T MEET RECORD HIGHS, BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY
80 DEGREES ARE IN STORE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS ONLY IN
THE 50S EXPECTED.
WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SOURCE FROM THE GULF, THE ONE HAZARD OF CONCERN IS MORNING FOG,
WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN A NUMBER OF INLAND AREAS FRIDAY MORNING,
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY ANY MEANS. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR DENSE
FOG WILL BE THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST INLAND GA COUNTIES
BUT ALL COUNTIES HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DUE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE FL PENINSULA ON SUNDAY ENSURING A WARM AND DRY DAY AGAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ADVANCES TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MARCH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AN ARCTIC BLAST TO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S
NEARING OR POSSIBLY REACHING DAILY RECORD VALUES.
SOME RATHER WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF
THE ZONES MONDAY BUT OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE TEMPS INTO THE AREA
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST
NIGHTS WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 30S
TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THEN THICKNESSES RISE AS THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WEST WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST
WINDS PICKING UP FROM OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z
THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED BY AROUND 06Z-07Z AND CLEARING OUT BY
AROUND 14Z, WITH MORE DENSER DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING OVER GNV
AND VQQ. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z WITH FOG OR MIST DISSIPATING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW FRIDAY
NE FL LOW FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOSTLY SITUATED TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL YIELD A WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAIR TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY FEATURING
CHANCES FOR RAIN. A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT, STARTING ON TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NIGHTLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 53 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 55 73 56 73 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 54 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 55 78 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 53 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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