537
FXUS62 KJAX 240000
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED T-STORMS THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MORE STORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST FL COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND. HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN & MON, WHEN VALUES APPROACH
110
- MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE SATILLA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA
UPDATE
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY WITH DRY AIR AT ABOUT
700 MB AND FAIRLY HIGH MLCAPE VALUES. NOTED DCAPE VALUE FROM OUR 18Z
SOUNDING WAS 880 J/KG. T-STORM WIND GUSTS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COMMONLY HAD 40-55 MPH WITH A FEW OBSERVED IN THE 55-60 MPH RANGE IN
DUVAL COUNTY. THERE ARE SOME LINGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT 745 PM JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE MAIN ACTION WAS TODAY
AND THIS IS WHERE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AND
ALSO SOME FAIRLY ROBUST CAPE VALUES ARE STILL AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY LINGER UNTIL 10 PM OR SO.
HOWEVER, WITH WE CAN'T RULE OUR A SHOWER OR TWO PAST MIDNIGHT
GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ENERGY ALOFT ROTATING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST FL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT AMID THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTION TO
WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO THE POOL OF COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND
RESULTING MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THE MAIN DETERRING FACTOR
FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE THE WAKE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, DISPLACING THE BETTER DYNAMICS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC. THAT SAID, THE BUOYANCY AND A WEAK
PREFRONTAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS GROW
IN COVERAGE WITH A 40-50% THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA WHERE STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY
FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, AROUND 4-8 PM. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, MAINLY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL AREAS. MUCH DRIER WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OTHER WILL ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE EARLY HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL STALL AROUND
THE FL/GA BORDER, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS INTO INLAND SE GA
TONIGHT, READING IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MILD AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NE FL WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PWATS WILL FALL BELOW
INCH FOR LOCATIONS FROM INTERSTATE 10 NORTHWARD, WITH VALUES FALLING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO DEVELOP SOME BRIEF, WEAK
CONVECTION AROUND THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
FLAGLER COUNTY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO AGAIN REACH THE LOW AND MID 90S AT MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION WILL ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK AND
CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOOSEN OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO RETURN BY THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS AT AREA BEACHES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET, WITH FAIR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES AT INLAND LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10 TO FALL TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S, WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
STOUT RIDGING ALOFT OVER MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL DIRECT A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
TOWARDS THE FL PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SHEAR OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING PWATS BACK ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
AREA, TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL TICK UP BY A DEGREE OR
TWO AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WHERE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST. AN
EARLY DEVELOPING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP COASTAL
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIRECTED EASTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROGRESS, WITH SOME LINGERING EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING BY MIDNIGHT, WITH THINNING DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL NUDGE UP TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S INLAND AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK
RIDGES ALOFT CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER WEST TEXAS ON
THURSDAY WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, THE AXIS OF ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND ITS AXIS
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PROMOTING A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS
IT CROSSES THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY INCREASING ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS BOUNDARY COLLIDES WITH A PINNED ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS SUNSET ON
BOTH DAYS. COVERAGE OVERALL SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED,
WITH THE BIGGER STORY BEING RISING TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS SOAR TO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S ALL THE WAY TO AREA BEACHES. HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD PEAK IN THE 103-107 DEGREE RANGE, OR JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE, ALTHOUGH A FEW
COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN AROUND 80.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY ON
SUNDAY AND THEN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES, A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET TO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S INLAND, WITH SEA BREEZES PERHAPS KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRING HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, POSSIBLY
PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM SGJ TO GNV AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STORMS NEARBY
FOR THE TAFS SITES THIS EVENING EXCEPT NOT AT SSI WHERE THERE IS
SOME DRIER AIR. AFTER ABOUT 02Z/03Z, SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF LINE FROM KGNV TO KSGJ WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND HAVE
PUT IN USUAL PERIODS OF BR FOR VQQ FOR TONIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK AS
ACTIVE FOR WEDNESDAY SO ONLY HAVE VCTS FOR SGJ AND GNV.
MARINE
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME INTO THE
WATERS AND STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS
RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
INCREASES TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS EACH EVENING BEGINNING FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END SIDE OF
MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION INLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, WITH HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES
EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE OCALA
NATIONAL FOREST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 35 PERCENT AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, AND AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO EASTERLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS ARE FORECAST ON THURSDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES MOVING INLAND AND POSSIBLY TRIGGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. FAIR DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST AT MOST LOCATIONS. GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FL EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SATILLA RIVER BASIN
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND IMPACT THE FORECAST POINTS
AT WAYCROSS AND ATKINSON THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 90 70 93 / 0 0 0 30
SSI 75 89 78 89 / 10 0 0 20
JAX 74 94 74 94 / 20 0 0 40
SGJ 76 92 75 92 / 40 10 0 30
GNV 75 95 72 96 / 30 0 0 30
OCF 77 95 73 95 / 20 10 0 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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