537  
FXUS62 KJAX 230426  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
1226 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
- CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS  
IMPACTED: INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY  
 
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES. HIGH  
RISK LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND & EARLY NEXT WEEK  
 
- LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 0.50 INCHES OR  
LESS WILL SETTLE OVER THE NE FL/SE GA LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT  
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY  
COOL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG  
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15G25  
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG  
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AROUND 80F ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LOWER 80S  
ACROSS INLAND NE FL. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT,  
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS INLAND SE GA, UPPER 40S/NEAR  
50F ACROSS INLAND NE FL, WHILE 50S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW/MILDER OCEAN TEMPS NEARBY.  
AIRMASS STILL LIKELY TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION,  
BUT THE USUAL PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE NEAR INLAND WATERWAYS BOTH  
MORNINGS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY, TO THE  
NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN  
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH  
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE  
WINDS AT THE COAST.  
 
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA  
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  
 
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT INCREASING  
MOISTURE WILL YIELD MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT  
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION, SO THE DRY  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH THROUGH  
TUESDAY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ON SUNDAY, SURFACE TROUGHING WILL  
REMAIN NEAR THE COAST, AS AN UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN US. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGHING AND UPPER ENERGY  
WILL PROVIDE FOR RAINFALL CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY, AS REGION REMAINS IN  
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL YIELD CONTINUED  
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INTO MID WEEK.  
 
THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART  
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDED FOR NE FL COAST.  
 
DUE TO CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW  
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS, AND NEAR TO ABOVE DURING NIGHTS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE WINDS  
INCREASING TO 10G15 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY.  
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE  
OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY,  
WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD DURING  
THE WEEKEND, CREATING LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT  
AND SATURDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR NEAR SHORE  
WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,  
POTENTIALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE  
TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AND SURF/BREAKERS  
AROUND 2 FEET. NORTHEAST/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO  
THE WEEKEND WITH SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIPS ON FRIDAY BECOMING A  
HIGH RISK OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF/BREAKERS  
WILL BUILD INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY  
AS HIGH AS 7-10 FT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD.  
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN  
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH  
THE REGION WEDNESDAY, WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES GOING INTO MID WEEK.  
ELEVATED WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE  
ESPECIALLY GUSTY AT THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED  
THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT. MINRH LEVELS IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON  
TODAY, THEN MORE CONFINED TO INTERIOR NE FL FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AMG 79 45 80 49 / 0 0 0 0  
SSI 74 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0  
JAX 77 52 81 59 / 0 0 0 0  
SGJ 76 60 79 67 / 0 0 0 0  
GNV 81 51 83 57 / 0 0 0 0  
OCF 82 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
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