792
FXUS62 KJAX 281324
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE COAST, THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, AND THE ENTIRETY
OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
- COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXTENDED DURATION OF MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAJOR BEACH EROSION AROUND TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS RE-ISSUED FOR COASTAL GLYNN AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, AND THE
ENTIRETY OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
- COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXTENDED DURATION OF MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES. HIGH RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MAJOR
BEACH EROSION AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1035
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING DOWN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, WITH SHARP COASTAL TROUGHING PREVAILING
OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA
AND NORTHEAST FL. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ALOFT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
PERSISTS ACROSS OUR REGION, AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, WITH THIS
FEATURE DEFLECTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A STUBBORN CUTOFF TROUGH OTHERWISE REMAINS IN PLACE
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS
PREVAILS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE
PWATS WERE BELOW 0.5 INCHES. PWATS ELSEWHERE RANGED FROM AROUND 0.75
TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA, WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE,
FEATURING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES, WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-
4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL. POCKETS OF LOWER STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD COVER WERE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL, WHILE FAIR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AS OF 08Z, WHILE
LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOW AND
MID 60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHARP COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS, AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED NEAR
COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR REGION, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AT AREA BEACHES. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED FROM SOUTH FL EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INCREASING PWATS LIFT
NORTHWARD FROM THE FL PENINSULA. MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE TODAY IN THE GUSTY NORTHEAST FLOW FOR
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, WITH SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING TOWARDS SUNSET
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS
ELSEWHERE AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 80 FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT, WITH COASTAL TROUGHING GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT WILL ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND
PAST THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR, WHILE FAIR SKIES ALLOW LOWS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-10 TO FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS CONTINUE: MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WITHIN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND THE ENTIRETY OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
- BEACH HAZARDS CONTINUE: HIGH SURF ADVISORIES CONTINUING AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, HIGH RISK FOR DEADLY RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES. MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH EROSION CONTINUES.
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE PATTERN BY THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME, THE GENERAL SENTIMENT AND FORECAST WILL
BE MOSTLY THE SAME STORY AS ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. THE
PRIMARY CHANGE WILL BE THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE
BAHAMAS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT AFFECT
THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN VERY MUCH, AS A "RE-INFORCING" RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. IN THE END, THIS
WILL PERSIST A BREEZY 10-20G25-35MPH TYPE OF WIND DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, GENERALLY HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST FL ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL, AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S BY THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID
80S INLAND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
COASTAL HAZARDS: PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW, COMBINED WITH ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES LINGERING WITH THE FULL MOON EARLIER THIS WEEK,
WILL SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST, INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRETY OF THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER. HAZARDOUS SURF AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT AREA BEACHES, WITH
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION LIKELY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY TO CONTINUES DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK, SURF LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND
- INCREASING CHANCES THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INTRODUCING
HEIGHTENED POSSIBILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS BEHAVIOR OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
(IN WHICH LONG TERM GUIDANCE HAS MODEST DIFFERENCES), THIS WILL
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY & SUNDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL AS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A MOSTLY DRY "TRANSITION" DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ELEVATED COASTAL WATER LEVELS AND HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PROLONGED
ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. TIDAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHERE
"TRAPPED" TIDES MAY TAKE LONGER TO RECEDE. ROUGH SURF AND AN
ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AREA BEACHES AS
WELL. THE CHANGE IN PATTERN HOWEVER SHOULD AT LEAST ABATE MOST OF
THESE HAZARDS WITH THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION, EXCEPT FOR SOME
AREAS WHERE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
AS THE PATTERN/WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS FREQUENTLY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS TOWARDS
18Z, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 23Z. KEPT VICINITY
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV AT THIS
TIME. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TOWARDS
14Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS AT SGJ AND CRG
AND 10-15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE, FOLLOWED BY SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AT SGJ, CRG, SSI AND JAX AFTER 18Z, WHILE SPEEDS AT GNV AND
VQQ INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SURFACE SPEEDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AFTER 23Z.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WILL MEANDER THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. COASTAL TROUGHING SITUATED OVER
OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
THIS FEATURE GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE WATERS FROM AROUND ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THEN OVERSPREADING MOST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SEAS BUILD. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS / HIGH SURF: HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE
BREAKERS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WILL PREVAIL. BREAKERS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
ELEVATED, ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND
MAJOR BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
DURING THIS EXTENDED DURATION ONSHORE WIND EVENT.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
- THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THIS WILL NOT CHANGE EXPECTED CONDITIONS MUCH HOWEVER, AS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
FL WITH POOR TO FAIR COASTAL DISPERSIONS, IN THE FAIR TO GOOD
RANGE INLAND WITH BETTER MIXING. AREAS OF HIGH NIGHTTIME
DISPERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN CHANGES THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION
IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY AND WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TODAY'S LUNAR PERIGEE TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
COAST AND WITHIN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY (ICWW) AND THE ENTIRETY
OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WATER LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REACH 2-3
FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW) DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH THURSDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RE-ISSUED FOR
COASTAL CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUING ALONG OUR ATLANTIC COAST AND WITHIN THE
ICWW AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN, WITH MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUING AROUND
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER THE LONG DURATION OF THIS STRONG ONSHORE WIND EVENT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MAJOR BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 80 62 81 59 / 0 10 0 0
SSI 75 66 75 63 / 10 10 10 0
JAX 77 67 78 66 / 10 30 10 0
SGJ 77 72 78 69 / 40 70 50 20
GNV 80 69 82 67 / 10 20 10 0
OCF 80 70 83 68 / 10 20 30 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ038-124-125-
132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
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