699
FXUS62 KJAX 252346
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
746 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2021
UPDATE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ITSELF AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH DEWPOINTS
FALLING OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
00Z TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION [314 PM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
SCATTERED SHOWERS (WITH A LONE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FADE
AFTER SUNSET, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (< 20 %) OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ITSELF AS IT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY, INTERMITTENT GROUND FOG WILL ADVECT INLAND
FROM THE GOMEX UNDER WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, EXPANDING EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO
ST. AUGUSTINE LINE THROUGH 12Z. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GA UNDER DRIER, COOLER POST-FRONTAL FLOW WHERE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS NE FL WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE EXITING FRONT.
SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]
COOLER AND DRY UNDER DEEP LAYER NW FLOW TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL UNDER BREEZY NW WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 1-25 MPH AT
TIMES. WINDS RELAX INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES
ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC COAST INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER A WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY, WITH A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THU MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS SE GA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO TUESDAY FROM THE MID 70S
ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INLAND NE FL. DRIER AIR AND
LIGHTER WINDS TUE NIGHT WILL ENABLE LOWS TO FALL BELOW CLIMO
VALUES FROM NEAR 50 INLAND TO NEAR 60 TOWARD THE COAST UNDER LIGHT
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. A WARMING TREND ENSUES WED NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH LOW
TEMPS LIKELY REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
THEN WARMING THROUGH SUNRISE THU AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES.
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
THU...POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, NON-
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES COULD ALSO CAUSE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE. VERY STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, BUT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
GIVEN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE FROM TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. LATEST SREF PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
FOR CAPE INDICATED ONLY 10-30% OF MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE 50% POTENTIAL SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE TO ST.
AUGUSTINE. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR
DEEPER CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS, BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS INCLUDING A
STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET OF 45-50 KTS ACROSS NE FL WILL CONTINUE
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE MORE FAVORED AREAS FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL
EXTENDING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC WHERE JUICIER NEAR 70 DEG DEW PTS
WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY THU, ROUGHLY FROM TRENTON TO GAINESVILLE TO ST.
AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD. THE GREATEST SEVERE STORM CONCERN WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WHERE LOW
LEVEL SSE WINDS WILL ELEVATE HELICITY.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE BULK OF PRECIP/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THU MORNING EXITING THE COAST EARLY THU AFTERNOON, WHILE
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING
WEST-EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, EXITING THE LOCAL COAST THU
EVENING. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 0.5 INCHES TO 2 INCHES UP TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN, OVERALL A MUCH WELCOMED WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL FOR THE
LOCAL AREA.
FRI & SAT...LINGERING CLOUDS, BREEZY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER POTENTIAL FRIDAY THEN DRY SATURDAY AS WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATE OVER THE AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT T'STORM
POTENTIAL FOR NOW GIVEN HIGH LOW LEVEL STABILITY BUT THERE COULD
BE ELEVATED T'STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL FUNNEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA UNDER EXTENSIVE WRAP-AROUND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND COOL, BREEZY WNW WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S WELL INLAND TO 50S COAST AND OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES.
SUN & MON...COLDER AND DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST THEN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SOME WARMING INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 COAST.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN WNW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS. ADVISORY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. NW WINDS RELAX TUE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST THEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THURSDAY PRECEDED BY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN WINDS DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 74 48 73 56 / 20 0 0 0 40
SSI 64 77 56 74 62 / 20 0 0 0 30
JAX 66 79 55 77 62 / 20 0 0 0 30
SGJ 68 82 58 78 65 / 20 0 0 0 30
GNV 66 82 52 79 61 / 20 0 0 0 40
OCF 69 84 54 80 61 / 20 0 0 0 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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