003
FXUS62 KJAX 060600
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
100 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SAT AM
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
FL
- SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10.
SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR INLAND AREAS
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH, WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS OVERLAPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PWATS OF ABOUT 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY TODAY
WHILE THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAST FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. ONE OR MORE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER NRN 2/3RDS OF
THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
AMOUNT OF LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS ENHANCED REGION OF LIFT WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, BUT SLOWLY LOSES SOME STEAM AS IT HEADS
SOUTHWARD SO CHANCES COME DOWN TONIGHT, BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 65-75 PERCENT
FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE
LOW AT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER IS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THROUGH
TONIGHT, FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOTED TO BE ABOUT 0.3 TO
0.5 INCHES OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA WITH LESS THAN 0.3
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS WHERE THE LIFT WILL BE QUITE
A BIT WEAKER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND MID 60S TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AREAS, AND THEN LOWER 70S FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
NOT TOO CHILLY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER /ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.
MAIN DRIVING HAZARD WILL BE THE RAIN ON AREA ROADS, BUT ESPECIALLY
THE AREAS OF FOG THAT CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. AREA VISIBILITIES MAY BE BELOW 1 MILE AT
TIMES, WITH 1/4 MILE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WILL
MONITOR CONDITIONS ON THE NEED FOR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS OR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY (WITH THE LATTER BEING A LOWER PROBABILITY
AT THIS TIME).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION
MOVING OFFSHORE AND DISPERSING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY PRESSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY
BY MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE 40S FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY STRETCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONT PRESSING IN
FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A MILD
WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH INITIALLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO BE NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
MAINLY IFR AND LIFR CIG CONDITIONS START THIS PERIOD WITH THESE CIGS
WIDESPREAD, THOUGH INITIAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT SGJ. WILL START TO
SEE SOME MORE RAIN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z AND SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES. STILL SOME MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE CIGS WILL STAY LOW AT
IFR DURING MIDDAY TIME PERIOD, BUT SOME INDICATIONS SOME IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE AS IFR PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SOME AROUND THE
18Z-23Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW CIGS DURING
THE AFTN AND LET SUBSEQUENT TAFS REFINE THOSE POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENTS WHICH AGAIN MAY BE TEMPORARY ANYWAY. SFC WINDS
MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH TODAY UP TO ABOUT 6-12 KT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING
OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, CREATING STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MAIN INITIAL HEADLINE RIGHT NOW IS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (FOR WINDS) FOR MOST AREAS
WATERS STARTING ABOUT 20Z TODAY AND LASTING TO ABOUT 03Z
TONIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL, AND MOSTLY THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD, MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST FL
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER NO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER, RAIN COVERAGE, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS AND LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING RAIN MIXED WITH FOG FOR THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 58 47 59 / 60 50 30 30
SSI 50 62 52 62 / 70 60 40 20
JAX 50 64 52 65 / 70 80 50 20
SGJ 55 69 57 68 / 70 80 70 20
GNV 54 68 56 70 / 70 90 70 20
OCF 58 72 59 70 / 60 80 80 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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