819
FXUS62 KJAX 281940
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
AREA OF BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMATION TOWARD SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT WERE MOIST ENOUGH FOR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT, WITH
READINGS WARMEST AT THE COAST DUE TO A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY MILDER COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022
THE HIGH WILL MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, AS MOISTURE
GATHERS IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTH TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US. INLAND FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA IS
ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS TUESDAY, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A CHANCE FOR A
FEW INLAND SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NE FL COAST TOWARD DAWN, AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR PUSHES NORTH INTO AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR
OR POSSIBLY ABOVE THE SST TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WOULD THEN PUSH
THIS FOG ASHORE. THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, HELPING TO PUSH ANY FOG THAT DOES NOT MIX OUT
AFTER SUNRISE BACK OUT OVER THE WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW
MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ENERGY ALONG
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INLAND, WITH CHANCES FADING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022
STENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF THE GRADIENT AROUND THE HIGH, AND THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY NIGHT, BUT GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES IS FORECAST DUE TO THE TROUGH.
THE HIGH WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, INTO
SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY DRY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH A DRY
DAY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PATCHY SEA FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG NE FL COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NE FL INCREASING TO MODERATE FOR TUESDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 74 60 76 / 0 0 20 70
SSI 58 70 63 75 / 0 0 10 50
JAX 54 76 61 80 / 0 0 0 40
SGJ 57 75 63 79 / 0 0 0 20
GNV 53 78 61 80 / 0 0 0 30
OCF 53 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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