819  
FXUS62 KJAX 281940  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
240 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  
AREA OF BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN CUMULUS  
DEVELOPMENT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE  
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL  
LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMATION TOWARD SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS  
THAT WERE MOIST ENOUGH FOR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT, WITH  
READINGS WARMEST AT THE COAST DUE TO A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE  
RELATIVELY MILDER COASTAL WATERS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
THE HIGH WILL MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, AS MOISTURE  
GATHERS IN THE GULF AND MOVES NORTH TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL US. INLAND FOG WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE  
MORNING HOURS, WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A GRADUAL  
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA IS  
ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS TUESDAY, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE  
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 
THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AS  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE  
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH A CHANCE FOR A  
FEW INLAND SHOWERS TOWARD DAWN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.  
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NE FL COAST TOWARD DAWN, AS  
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR PUSHES NORTH INTO AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEAR  
OR POSSIBLY ABOVE THE SST TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS WOULD THEN PUSH  
THIS FOG ASHORE. THE WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, HELPING TO PUSH ANY FOG THAT DOES NOT MIX OUT  
AFTER SUNRISE BACK OUT OVER THE WATERS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY. WITH THE PARENT LOW  
MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ENERGY ALONG  
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
INLAND, WITH CHANCES FADING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO THE  
EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF  
OF THE DAY INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
STENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS  
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL  
WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF THE GRADIENT AROUND THE HIGH, AND THE  
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS AT THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY NIGHT, BUT GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER  
EASTERN COUNTIES IS FORECAST DUE TO THE TROUGH.  
 
THE HIGH WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, INTO  
SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE  
FAIRLY DRY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH A DRY  
DAY EXPECTED.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TO THE  
NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. PATCHY SEA FOG POSSIBLE  
ALONG NE FL COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD  
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE  
NORTHEAST SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW THROUGH TUESDAY  
NE FL INCREASING TO MODERATE FOR TUESDAY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 48 74 60 76 / 0 0 20 70  
SSI 58 70 63 75 / 0 0 10 50  
JAX 54 76 61 80 / 0 0 0 40  
SGJ 57 75 63 79 / 0 0 0 20  
GNV 53 78 61 80 / 0 0 0 30  
OCF 53 79 61 81 / 0 0 0 20  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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