071
FXUS62 KJAX 042321
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
621 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT
- FREEZE WATCH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT & EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS
IMPACTED: SOUTHEAST GA, INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL
FL. WIDESPREAD FROST INLAND & AREAS OF FROST EXTENDING TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS
UPDATE
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST MADE THIS EVENING,
AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE TOO
ELEVATED TO SUPPORT FOG FORMATION AND HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. A CHILLIER DAY IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GATHER TO THE
NORTH THIS EVENING, ACCELERATING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. A NARROW BAND OF LOW-GRADE GULF MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAK, WILL PROMOTE
HIGH CHANCES (70-90%) FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY,
PERIOD OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES AND EXITS OFFSHORE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MEAGER BUT THE REGIONS WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY MAY TOTAL
UP TO 0.50-0.75" WHICH WILL BE BENEFICIAL AND SLOW ANY WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. FOR AREAS, WHERE BRUSH
FIRES ARE BREAKING OUT AND BURNING THIS WILL ALSO HELP COMBAT THAT
ACTIVITY AND "CLEAN" THE SMOKE AND HAZE OUT OF THE AIR.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S. DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DEEP TROUGHING WILL PIVOT ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY, PUSHING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS COASTAL NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LINGERING SHOWERS TRAILING THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS. CONSOLIDATING AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CREATE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS FEATURE LIKELY
KEEPING LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS AROUND 50 FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE MID TO UPPER
50S ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL ALLOW
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY LOOSEN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST AT ALL INLAND
LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA, WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AS WELL. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, EXCEPT LOW TO MID 30S
FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN PIVOTING ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
APPROACHING BOUNDARY, WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS, SUNSHINE AND A DRY
AIR MASS ALLOWING HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THIS TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING REINFORCING FRONT AND A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S, EXCEPT MID 40S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING OUR WINDS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXCEPT
NORTHEASTERLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS, SUNSHINE,
AND A PERSISTENTLY DRY AIR MASS ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB CLOSER TO EARLY
FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY, WITH 60S INLAND AND AROUND 60 AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN LOOSEN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LOWS
ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, EXCEPT LOW TO MID 40S
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE SHOULD
CONTINUE.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL THEN TRANSITION TO FLAT RIDING
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
TO ABOVE EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMATOLOGY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR
NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT MAY AGAIN ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PATCHY
FROST FORMATION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S, WHILE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS WILL THEN REACH INTO THE 70S FOR ALL INLAND LOCATIONS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH COOLER SHELF WATERS KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT AROUND 50 AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM SHOULD
APPROACH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS. LONG TERM MODEL BLENDS CURRENTLY KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK FOR OUR REGION, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUING AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO TERMINAL AIRSPACE IN
NE FL AND SE GA. AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD CEILINGS WILL TREND LOWER
INITIALLY TOWARD MVFR THIS EVENING THEN IFR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
THURSDAY. GRADUAL FLIGHT CONDITION IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS VEER NORTHWESTERLY,
BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CLIP
THE WATERS RESULTING IN ANOTHER UPTICK IN WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE, OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, AND LOWER SPEEDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCING
SURF/BREAKERS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE TO
AROUND 2 FT SURF/BREAKERS ON THURSDAY IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW WHICH MAY
BRING THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT RISK TO LOW LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH NEAR CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, MAINLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
WAYCROSS. OTHERWISE, BENEFICIAL SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONG TRANSPORT
SPEEDS AND BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS CREATING HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING TRANSPORT SPEEDS AND BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS
COMBINING WITH NEAR CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO POSSIBLY
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FORECAST NEARLY-AREA WIDE. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, AS SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY, WITH BREEZY TRANSPORT SPEEDS
FORECAST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST
IS EXPECTED AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. A LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 38 51 29 60 / 90 0 0 0
SSI 44 54 34 59 / 90 10 0 0
JAX 44 57 32 62 / 90 10 0 0
SGJ 48 59 35 61 / 90 30 0 0
GNV 44 57 31 62 / 90 20 0 0
OCF 47 59 30 62 / 90 30 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-137-140-220-232-
236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ452-454-470-472-474.
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