743
FXUS62 KJAX 270011
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
811 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES.
MODERATE RISK AT SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN HAZARD AREA: INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.-301
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WIDESPREAD 2-4
RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
- HOT AND HUMID - DAILY HEAT INDEX 95- 105F THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY FOR NE FL BEACHES
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAIN HAZARD AREA: INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S.-301 IN SE
GA. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, SPARKING UP
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 20-30 MPH. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWS THE
SEA BREEZES MERGE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE US 301 CORRIDOR. THIS
MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING AND CURRENT GOES ANALYSIS SHOW PWATS AROUND
1.5-2.0" WITH MOISTURE LIKELY TO INCREASE EVEN MORE LATER TODAY.
STRONGER STORMS FROM BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
40-50 MPH, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. TRAINING STORMS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN OR
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE, LOW-LYING AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET, BUT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS. VERY MILD LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.
- STRONG STORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
- HEAT INDEX 95-105 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DEEP-LAYERED "BERMUDA" RIDGING WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS
TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE THE
PREVAILING FLOW VEERING FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, WHICH WILL TAP A FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY FIRING OFF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. CONVECTION COULD GET AN EARLY START
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE FL BIG BEND / NATURE COAST, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL BY THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY COLLIDE WITH A
PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY POSITIONED ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS "PULSING" AND
BECOMING STRONG DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MEANWHILE, TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH DEEP MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GA. THIS SCENARIO
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WAVES OF DOWNPOURS TO EXTEND INTO SOUTHEAST GA
LATER THIS WEEK, PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE
REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE HELD TO THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE AT
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR, WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FRIDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR, BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY CONVECTION DEVELOPS, AS WELL AS OVERALL CLOUD
COVER. LOWS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
- CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE U.S., FEATURING
TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR THE NATION. DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA, AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO DRIVE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL/GA BORDER. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS THUS LOWER FOR OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. LONGER TERM GUIDANCE ALSO ADVECTS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION, WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. BLENDED GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY GENERATES 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
80S THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY COOLING
OFF TO THE MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS INTO NORTHEAST FL OR NOT. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IF A MORE ROBUST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES OUR REGION AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
00Z TAF PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH INLAND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH TO
NORTH NEAR GNV AND VQQ WITH A TEMPO GROUPS AT THE FORMER AS A SMALL
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN X60 AND OCF MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARDS GNV THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP
TO 30 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDUCE TO 5-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AND BREEZY 10-15 KNOTS AT SSI, SGJ, AND CRG
THROUGH 03-06Z BEFORE TRENDING JUST BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS SHOWERS FROM EARLIER INLAND STORMS DRIFT BACK
EAST TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY, SSW WINDS WILL SLOW PROGRESS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
WITH VCSH AFTER 16Z AS HEATING AND SEABREEZE/RIVER BREEZES
INTERACT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PASSAGE ALONG THE COAST TO CRG/JAX/VQQ BY
20-21Z WITH VCTS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT REMAINING SSW
WINDS 6-10 KNOTS AT GNV. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS LATE
AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL AND DUVAL COUNTY TAF SITES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THOSE
TERMINALS WITH PREVAILING VCTS AT GNV AND SSI WHERE HIGHER
STORM CHANCES ARE LESS CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING FORECAST UPDATES.
MARINE
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TODAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS PREVAILING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
WIND SPEEDS SURGE TO JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND RETREAT THROUGH THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS ON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH ACTIVITY THEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
BREEZY SSE WINDS AND BREAKERS OF 2-4 FEET WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK
AT NE FL BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HIGHER END MODERATE
RISK PREVAILS AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES TODAY. HIGH/MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND LOCATION THIS
- AFTERNOON
BREEZY SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH GOOD VALUES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY, YIELDING GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH FAIR VALUES FORECAST ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY, WITH
DECREASING SPEEDS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD NORTH CENTRAL AND THEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ON THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
WIDESPREAD WAVES OF DOWNPOURS ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL DURING THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 87 69 88 / 40 50 20 30
SSI 77 88 75 89 / 30 20 10 50
JAX 75 92 73 91 / 30 60 40 80
SGJ 76 90 74 90 / 10 40 40 80
GNV 72 91 72 88 / 70 50 40 80
OCF 73 90 73 87 / 80 60 50 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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