867
FXUS62 KJAX 191308
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
808 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020
UPDATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES SE ACROSS SE GA. THIS AFTERNOON, AS FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS NE FL...MAY SEE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED T-STORMS ALONG
WITH SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY, DEW POINTS ONLY IN UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AND LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL YIELD VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY... MINIMIZING SEVERE STORM THREAT DESPITE GOOD
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP/WEATHER, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY, BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY]
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FOR ALL
TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR SGJ WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL 16Z.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z. WINDS WILL
BACK FROM THE WEST AND WEST NORTH WEST AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 21Z
EXCEPT FOR SGJ, WHICH WILL SEE THE WIND SHIFT CLOSER TO 23Z. HAVE
VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE AT SGJ WHERE SHRA ARE IN PLACE AFTER 18Z AND AT
GNV WITH TEMPO BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z FOR SHRA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT THE JAX TERMINALS AND SSI AFTER 14Z. SOME LLWS IS
POSSIBLE AT SSI BETWEEN UNTIL AND 17Z. CHANCES FOR VCTS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION AT GNV AT THIS TIME, SO DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHILE 7 FOOT SEAS PERSIST THERE WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS 15-20 KNOTS AND WAVES 4-6 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS WILL BRING ELEVATED NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY OVER THE AREA WATERS. ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE
WATERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS IN THE
NORTHEAST FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR NE FL
BEACHES WITH A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SE GA BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 32 49 27 46 / 40 0 0 0 0
SSI 68 37 50 34 47 / 60 0 0 0 0
JAX 71 36 54 32 50 / 70 0 0 0 0
SGJ 73 40 55 38 51 / 60 20 0 0 10
GNV 71 36 55 30 51 / 70 10 0 0 0
OCF 74 38 57 32 53 / 60 20 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
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