494
FXUS62 KJAX 072355
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
- HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY (12-6 PM). PEAK HEAT INDEX 105-112
MOST AREAS. MAJOR HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEK.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK BEACHES TODAY
UPDATE
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DWINDLE AS SURFACE BEGINS TO COOL. THERE
ARE STILL A FEW BOUNDARIES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TREKKING ALONG
I-10 WHERE RESIDUAL INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
STORMS THROUGH 10 PM BEFORE ACTIVITY COMPLETELY FADES. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE BIG CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT AS CONVECTIVE RELIEF WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED. A NEW HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DURING THE
NOON TO 6 PM WINDOW WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY PEAK INTO THE UPPER
100S AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HOT / ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HEAT ADVISORY FOR COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES NEAR 103-107.
- TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE A
HOT AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL MEET
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLANTIC AFTER SUNSET. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK AND
EXPECT JUST A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE SEA BREEZE MERGERS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND/OR FUNNEL CLOUD/WATERSPOUT
ACTIVITY. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES IN
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS, BUT OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS
ONLY LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO THE STORM MOTION AROUND 15 MPH OR SO.
TEMPS WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION
AND OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS REACH MOST LOCATIONS, AND PEAK HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY AROUND 105F, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG COASTAL SE GA
REACHING AROUND 108F, AND WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE, AS ANY
CONVECTION WILL REACH THESE AREAS LATEST IN THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND, AND UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80F ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS
- LOWER CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WEDNESDAY. WITH
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE FAIRLY WEAK THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER THAN
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE LIGHTER FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA.
THE LIGHTER FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THAT RECENTLY, LIKELY REACHING THE I95 CORRIDOR IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRIER, BUT THE CLASH OF
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE I95 CORRIDOR, WILL RESULT IN
GREATEST CHANCE THERE. WITH LOWER CONVECTIVE CHANCES, AND A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE GULF SEA BREEZE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE TREND
WARMER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDICES
INCREASING.
THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH OVER FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD,
SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THE LIGHT FLOW,
AND LOWER CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR, OR
INTO HEAT ADVISORY RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS
- CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE THIS PERIOD
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY, AS IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN RIDGE WILL BE STRONGER. THE HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
DAY.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE MORE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD A FLOW
FROM THE WEST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE GREATER SUNDAY, AND LIKELY
ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE, BUT
STILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLIDE ALL THE WAY TO NEAR
THE GA/FL LINE TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL YIELD
HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
FOR THE MOST PART THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AT AREA
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL "UNTAPPED" INSTABILITY LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA THROUGH 01-02Z. BEYOND THAT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME SHALLOW
FOG NEAR AT INLAND TERMINALS AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. MORE LIMITED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
ESTABLISHES OVER FLORIDA. STILL ANTICIPATE, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING RIGHT NOW SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VC
SHRA AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECT A LATER SEA BREEZE MERGER. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING BEYOND
KCRG/KSSI/KSGJ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY EVENING WIND SURGES FROM THE SOUTH TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION WIND SPEEDS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW WITH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE,
WHILE SURF REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 FEET RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. LOWER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 97 77 97 / 20 10 10 0
SSI 78 96 80 96 / 30 10 10 10
JAX 77 97 78 98 / 30 20 10 10
SGJ 77 96 77 96 / 20 20 10 10
GNV 75 96 75 97 / 10 10 10 20
OCF 74 95 76 96 / 10 10 10 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ136-
152>154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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