389
FXUS62 KJAX 150545
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1245 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND
- EXTENDED DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHERN.
LIKELY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FOG FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. BEFORE MIDNIGHT,
SHALLOW RADIATION FOG HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO MATERIALIZE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISN'T ANTICIPATED BROAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND
LIMITED VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL AND PORTIONS OF SE
GA THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS, THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN SMALL BRUSH FIRES IN THE AREA. NEAR THESE FIRES,
ENHANCED FOG POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE A VERY DENSE "SUPERFOG"
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THIS MAY REQUIRE TARGETED DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
REPORTED BRUSH FIRES.
CALM AND VERY LIGHT NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO STAY INTACT
LONGER THIS MORNING. ALL FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 9 AM. AFTER THE FOG
LIFTS, SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE REGIONAL PATTERN, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY ACT TO ADVECT
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD
JACKSONVILLE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN ADVECTIVE FOG EVENT,
WITH A CHANCE OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND NEAR 60 ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL PLAY INTO THAT
AS WELL. MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE
WEEK AREA-WIDE WITH CALMER WINDS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK LEAVING CALM WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING IN SOME MORE MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S, GENERALLY COOLER NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, EXPECT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST, IF NOT WORSEN. HOWEVER, LOOKING AHEAD JUST
PAST THIS PERIOD, A STRONGER FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR DAY 8.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SHALLOW FOG AND ACCOMPANYING VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AT TAF AIRFIELDS. THERE'S A MEDIUM CHANCE (AROUND 40%)
DENSE FOG LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07-12Z BUT THIS MAY BE
EPISODIC IN NATURE. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT, ESPECIALLY AT
JACKSONVILLE METRO TERMINALS, DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT FLOW AND
LIMITED MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS (70%
CHANCE) TO BE PREVAILING BY 9 AM. SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT, VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEGINNING TO FAVOR A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING FOG POTENTIAL AFTER 02Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES AND LIKELY STALLS
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR MARITIME
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. ONSHORE FLOW WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COMMENCE
THURSDAY WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING FRIDAY AS WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW SURF AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE MINRH WILL FALL TO 25-30%. MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE RH
SUNDAY BRIEFLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES, BUT HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION ON SUNDAY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES RETURN NORTH OF I-10 ON
MONDAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH CALMER WINDS THAN SUNDAY KEEPING
DISPERSION GOOD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEK
KEEPING MINRH ABOVE CONCERNING VALUES, ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK, LIKELY FURTHER WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 50 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 74 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 79 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 54 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 79 51 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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