408
FXUS62 KJAX 091231
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
831 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON TUESDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY-SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. LIMITED CHANCES OF
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FELT TODAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL. BY THE MONDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S AREA-WIDE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, PARTICULARLY OVER NE FL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOCALLY DENSE EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST THIS PERIOD,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE, AND A
WEAK UPPER WAVES. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ON
WEDNESDAY, SO CONVECTION IS NOT FORECAST.
FOG IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL NEUTRALLY TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL PIVOT EAST. A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SUPPORT A ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
INCREASING WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A VEERING WIND PROFILE AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES 40-45 KNOTS. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY, BUT THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE STRONG TO SEVERE
T'STORM POTENTIAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. A WETTING
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY WITH EXPECTED TOTALS BETWEEN A QUARTER
INCH TO ONE INCH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, THROUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS MAY BRING LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3-4 INCHES,
WHICH MAY PRESENT LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS OVER LOW
LYING AND URBAN AREAS. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL TURN NW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS STAYING ELEVATED FROM THE NORTH TURNING NORTHEASTERLY BY
FRIDAY SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
FRIDAY, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS NEAR CENTRAL FL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SW TO NE OVER NE FL AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WITH
NE WINDS BECOMING EAST NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE OUTER BANKS OF NC.
THIS WEEKEND, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER MID TO
UPPER TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BRIEFLY REINFORCE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AND TREND TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK LIFT SHIFTS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE
GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY,
BECOME NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, THEN RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS OF 300-9000 FEET WILL PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 16Z. LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEAST GULF
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AFTER 06Z. IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN AT VQQ AFTER 05Z, WITH IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CEILINGS REACHING GNV TOWARDS 10Z TUESDAY, WHILE
CONDITIONS AT VQQ LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR BEFORE 08Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF LOWER STRATUS CEILINGS
REMAINS TO LOW TO INDICATE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY FOR SSI, JAX, CRG, AND SGJ.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY 17Z,
RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SGJ AND SSI BEFORE 19Z, WITH THIS WIND
SHIFT THEN PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS
AFTER 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WHILE WINDS
ELSEWHERE DIMINISH.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS
CONTINUE. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY COMBINE WITH THIS
SWELL ON WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A HIGH RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FORECAST AT THE SOUTHEAST
GA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
SLOWLY AWAY TO THE NORTH WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND AN
AFTERNOON ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PINNED EAST OF I-95 WHERE WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AT THE COAST. DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE
GOOD RANGE. TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA
INTO CENTRAL FL FROM BERMUDA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE MOVES ONSHORE TOWARDS US-17 WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER
FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MIN RH VALUES
FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT BY SATURDAY.
AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS DUE TO INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH AND
WESTERN AREAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MARCH 9: KJAX: 88/2024
KCRG: 83/2012
KGNV: 89/1907
KAMG: 86/1974
MARCH 10: KJAX: 91/1974
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 90/1974
KAMG: 88/1974
MARCH 11: KJAX: 89/1967
KCRG: 86/2019
KGNV: 88/1974
KAMG: 86/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9: KJAX: 69/2024
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 69/2024
KAMG: 63/1973
MARCH 10: KJAX: 65/1922
KCRG: 64/1980
KGNV: 66/1909
KAMG: 62/1992
MARCH 11: KJAX: 66/1880
KCRG: 67/2015
KGNV: 64/1973
KAMG: 70/1975
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 62 86 62 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 77 62 78 62 / 10 10 20 0
JAX 87 62 89 62 / 10 10 20 0
SGJ 83 62 84 63 / 10 10 20 0
GNV 88 60 90 62 / 10 0 10 0
OCF 88 61 90 62 / 10 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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