944
FXUS62 KJAX 141128
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
728 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER
- INLAND LATE NIGHT & MORNING FOG THIS MORNING & THURSDAY MORNING
- LOCAL NOREASTER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. DANGEROUS SURF ZONE
CONDITIONS - HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH, HIGH SURF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, POTENTIAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT COAST POSSIBLE. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL AT COAST, ICW & ST. JOHNS BASIN
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
PATTERN FOR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MIDMORNING. PREVAILING FLOW
WILL SHIFT ABOUT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
BRINGING IN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS, AND IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
SHORELINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL POOL INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL PRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A SURGE OF WINDS WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING TIDAL FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED
RIP RISK EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY. INVERTED
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WHICH
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL TROUGHING WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATER THIS PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE THIS PERIOD, BUT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP READING ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE NIGHTS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND CALM WINDS COUPLED WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MVFR/IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AND LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH 13Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT SGJ WITH TEMPO
VLIFR RESTRICTIONS AT VQQ THROUGH 13Z. FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE
BY 14Z. NORTHEASTERLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS THEN DEVELOP TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST, AND PUSH WELL OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
NORTH. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK LOW AT ALL
AREA BEACHES TODAY. DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO CREATE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE LOW SURF
HEIGHTS KEEP THE RISK GENERALLY LOW AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES.
ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL NORTH CENTRAL FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 88 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 86 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 84 71 84 70 / 0 0 10 0
GNV 87 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 87 67 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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