125
FXUS62 KJAX 241815
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOW RH AND DRY FUELS TODAY SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. INCLUDES THE
OSCEOLA NATIONAL FOREST
- MARINE & BEACH HAZARDS TODAY & WORSEN THIS WEEKEND. HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES. HIGH RISK EXPANDS TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES SATURDAY. BUILDING, ROUGH SURF &
BLUSTERY ONSHORE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY & MONDAY
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LIFT OUT, WITH
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WILL SEE A
SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. A DRY AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST FL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN DISTINCTION BEING A SLIGHT WIND SURGE
AND IS NOTED IN THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AROUND 1028 MB WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASED
NORTHEAST WIND TODAY. SUNNY SKIES REST OF TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, AND LIGHTER WINDS
WELL INLAND. WIND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT THE COAST WILL REMAIN
A BIT BREEZY AT 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, THOUGH
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SRN U.S. AND MAY SEE SOME STRATOCU OFF THE WATERS ST
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. LOWS MAINLY 50-55 FROM INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TO AROUND GAINESVILLE FL, AND THEN 55-60 TO AROUND
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN, AND MID 60S COASTAL AREAS SINCE WE'LL
HAVE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THOSE AREAS WARMER.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST
(TROPICAL STORM MELISSA) ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. DESPITE THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNLIKELY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE A
BIT COMPARED TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY, PWATS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AS AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. OVERNIGHT, RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND A SECONDARY FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL APPROACH 30-40 MPH BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH NEAR NORMAL, HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, WARMER TEMPS AS YOU GO SOUTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY ONWARD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG WHERE DECENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
AND GRADUALLY COOL DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK AS TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION, BY THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, LOW 50S ALONG
THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO GIVE WAY TO MORE STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO MVFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME 12Z TO 18Z SAT. WINDS WILL TREND TO
INCREASING SPEEDS REST OF TODAY AROUND 10-15 KT AND THEN SUBSIDE
TONIGHT EXCEPT SLOWLY TO DECREASE ALONG COASTAL TAFS. WINDS RAMP
AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TOWARD ABOUT
20 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY,
WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINNING THIS
EVENING, CREATING STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY ORGANIZE
INTO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY IS LEADING TO A MODERATE
RISK OF RIPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS OVER NORTHEAST FL, WHICH WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE GA
BEACHES BY EARLY SATURDAY. ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WELL INLAND TODAY WITH DRYING FUELS WILL
LEAD TO A FIRE-SENSITIVE DAY. CURRENT READINGS SHOW VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S FROM INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AREA. FORTUNATELY, WHERE THE WINDS ARE HIGHEST, EASTERN
ZONES, ARE WHERE THE RH VALUE ARE MUCH HIGHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 78 55 76 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 62 76 65 77 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 57 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 30
SGJ 66 80 70 80 / 0 0 0 30
GNV 55 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 59 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-
474.
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