170
FXUS62 KJAX 080757
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
...NEW SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, CLIMATE...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES & ISOLATED T'STORMS THIS WEEKEND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE
WARNINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
- FREEZE POTENTIAL EARLY TUES & WED MORNINGS. WIDESPREAD FROST
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT & EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE OZARKS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG COLD FRONT
WAS ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST, SPARKING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
THE FL PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. OTHERWISE,
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE LOCALLY, WITH PWATS GENERALLY IN THE 1 -
1.25 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER, A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE, CONTAINING
PWATS OF 1.4 - 1.6 INCHES, WAS ADVECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND FL BIG BEND REGION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WAS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH
ALTITUDE, MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS THAT WAS EMANATING FROM CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WITH PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z RANGED FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE MID 60S AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE'S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE, FEATURING PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA LATER THIS MORNING, WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO THE 1,000 - 1,500 J/KG
RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET. BULK WESTERLY
SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY 20-30 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP BELOW STRONG LEVELS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE LOW AND MID 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
UPPER 70S FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT,
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THIS FEATURE
SPAWNING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
ADVECT A DECK OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND AND
NATURE COASTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT, WITH THESE LOWER CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR AND EVEN I-95 DURING THE PREDAWN AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
...A 50 TO 55 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IS FORECAST BETWEEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THIS PASSAGE, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW, DESPITE THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT, DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG THOUGH, DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANT THERMAL GRADIENT WITH BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL END EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, AS SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. SKIES WILL THEN BE CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA ON A NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA, TO THE LOWER 50S OVER COASTAL NE FL.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE GA, AND INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S NE FL.
AN INLAND FREEZE IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. INLAND LOWS IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FROST, WINDS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND START TO
MOVE MORE TOWARD THE EAST WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK, AS ONCE THE
HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, THE FLOW WILL COME FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST. TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INLAND
FREEZE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM TUESDAY NIGHT, SO
SIGNIFICANT FROST POTENTIAL FOR ALL BUT COAST AND AREAS NEAR THE
ST JOHNS RIVER. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.
AFTER A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AGAIN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 11Z
SATURDAY AT VQQ. PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 11Z AT CRG, WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
PREVAILING MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT GNV AFTER
08Z, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z.
OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 13Z AT JAX, SSI, AND SGJ. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT SSI AND SGJ, WHILE A TEMPO
GROUP WAS INCLUDED AT JAX THROUGH AROUND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 14Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE REGIONAL TERMINALS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE VICINITY
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. LOW STRATUS CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE FROM APALACHEE BAY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AFTER
03Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY AT GNV, VQQ,
AND JAX. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND
5 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS,
WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 5 KNOTS AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 5-10
KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 15Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 00Z, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS BY 04Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS OF 2-4
FEET WILL PREVAIL BOTH NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WINDS ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET. CAUTION LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
NEAR SHORE, WITH SPEEDS THEN INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5
FEET. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ON
MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL PEAK
AT CAUTION LEVELS OF 4-6 FEET NEAR SHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
OFFSHORE SEAS PEAKING IN THE 5-8 FOOT RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL BECOME
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR
WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING, BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH FAIR VALUES
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND WILL
SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE GOOD TO MARGINALLY HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES REGION-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY, WITH
SPEEDS STEADILY INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THESE WINDS WILL
USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS, LIKELY RESULTING IN
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON
MONDAY, LIKELY CREATING AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. STRONG SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS ON MONDAY WILL AGAIN CREATE GOOD TO MARGINALLY
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES REGION-WIDE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 257 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND:
NOVEMBER 8:
KJAX: 85/2024
KCRG: 84/2020
KGNV: 89/2018
KAMG: 86/2000
NOVEMBER 9:
KJAX: 88/1986
KCRG: 85/2018
KGNV: 88/1986
KAMG: 87/1986
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
NOVEMBER 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943
NOVEMBER 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 81 61 82 40 / 30 10 30 0
SSI 77 64 80 46 / 10 0 10 0
JAX 83 64 85 46 / 20 0 20 0
SGJ 83 66 82 50 / 10 10 20 0
GNV 84 65 84 48 / 20 10 20 0
OCF 84 66 82 50 / 20 10 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page