424
FXUS62 KJAX 301216
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
816 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS FRIDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE NE OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH PWATS PUSHING INTO
THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE ACROSS NE FL AND INTO THE 1.3 TO 1.5
INCH RANGE ACROSS SE GA. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE FRONTS FROM THE
ATLANTIC SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND
SE GA, UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND MIDDLE 80S AT
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS INLAND NE FL
COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH PEAK WIND
GUSTS FROM STORM ACTIVITY AROUND 40 MPH OR SO. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ENDS AROUND SUNSET WITH FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOW TEMPS
REMAINING MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ONSHORE E/SE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
MUCH ACTIVITY INTO THE COAST.
A BIT MORE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA, MAINLY
ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS OF SE GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR
WEST OF JAX.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE PATTERN: WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TO FINISH OFF THE WORK
WEEK, BRINGING IN PWATS NEAR 2" ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA,
SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DIURNAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH AFTERNOONS, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
ON FRIDAY AREA-WIDE AS A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL, CONVECTION WILL SIMMER DOWN
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 40-50 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND, AND A LITTLE COOLER
NEAR THE COAST AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOONS. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ABOVE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY ONWARD.
MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING IN PWATS ABOVE 2" ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA STATE BORDER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT MAY BE ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ALONG A STALLING
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME, THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 10 SUNDAY,
AND CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2"
INLAND, POTENTIALLY HIGHER ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN MONDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GA) AS A PASSING
FRONT BRINGS HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AREA-WIDE.
TUESDAY ONWARD, STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH,
CREATING DANGEROUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE, BRINGING CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING PRIMARILY I-95
EASTWARD WHERE HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TUESDAY, HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT SSI ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE
13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z, WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH
ENOUGH TO INDICATE VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. A
PROB30 GROUP FOR BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WAS SHIFTED TO THE
20Z-00Z TIME FRAME AT GNV. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AFTER 00Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY DEVELOPING TOWARDS 04Z AT VQQ, WHERE IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT VQQ AT THIS TIME, BUT A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ADDED IN THE 18Z TAF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND
13Z, WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
AT THE INLAND TERMINALS TOWARDS 16Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS BY 19Z.
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND
5 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 04Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, A PREDOMINANT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND PATTERN
TAKES OVER AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DRAW IN HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS, RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS NEAR 1-2
FT, ONSHORE FLOW, AND PRIOR SURF CONDITIONS SUGGEST A LOW-END
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INCREASING THIS WEEK, THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, COVERAGE EXPANDS
BUT HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERALL, DISPERSION WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD THIS
WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY FOR AREAS OF LOW AFTERNOON DISPERSION
THIS WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL...DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE THE MID-MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
EQUIPMENT
KVAX RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. PARTS ARE ON
ORDER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 0
SSI 84 75 85 75 / 20 10 10 10
JAX 88 71 87 73 / 30 10 30 0
SGJ 86 74 86 75 / 20 10 40 10
GNV 90 69 90 72 / 30 10 60 10
OCF 90 70 91 72 / 50 30 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151>154-165-166-250-264.
MARINE...NONE.
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