446
FXUS62 KJAX 221825
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
RISK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
- WIDESPREAD INLAND FREEZES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MOST OF THE MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REST
OF THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY INITIALLY FOR TONIGHT WITH
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO BRING IN MOISTURE. THERE
MAY BE A FAIRLY RAPID ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AFTER ABOUT 2 AM WITH
THESE CLOUDS LOWERING AND RADIATION FOG FORMING. WE HAVE INDICATED
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING AFTER ABOUT 3 AM GIVEN THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE WEAK WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. LOWS
TONIGHT CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OVER SOUTHEAST GA
TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR NORTHEAST FL. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTABLE FOR OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE, BUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SETTLES A STRONG RIDGE DOWN MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXACT
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL VARY A BIT DEPENDING
ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS COLD AIR "SURGE", THOUGH IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MAINLY ZONAL.
MOST OF THE ENERGIZED DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST, AND THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A 15-25% CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND
TOWARDS THE COAST THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE AREA AS
WELL, WITH TEMPS AS LOW AS THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE
EXPECTED NORTH OF ABOUT THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND AS HIGH AS THE
70S TO NEAR 80 THE FURTHER SOUTH OF I- 10 YOU GET.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM,
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS, BOTH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, AND
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY MILD DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM WITH RESPECT TO A CONTINUOUS
DECREASE IN ANY FROZEN PRECIP CHANCES, WHICH ARE NOW NEAR ZERO FOR
INTERIOR GA. INSTEAD, SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE START OF
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE WINTER STORM WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS.
THE MAIN IMPACTS WE WILL HAVE FROM THIS LARGE AND COMPLEX SYSTEM
WILL BE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE SURFACE LOWS AND
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE IN THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OVER INTERIOR GA, CONTINUING TO TREK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WRAPPING UP SUNDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THE FRONT ONCE AGAIN, AND THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL, IS VERY
LOW. HOWEVER, BEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LOOK TO BE
OVER INTERIOR GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY, AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL MOSTLY CURTAIL THESE CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP DROP OFF THROUGHOUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARDS AND ACROSS NORTHEAST FL, WITH A
BREEZY AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AMPING UP COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THEREFORE, AFTER VERY
MILD AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S SUNDAY, LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S
NORTH AND WEST AND 50S SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY FOR
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, WITH OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND A BREEZY AND COOL AIRMASS SETTLING IN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
LOOKS TO WEAKEN A BIT BY TUESDAY, THOUGH GENERALLY MEANDER NEAR JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK BUT COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM, WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND FROST/FREEZE CHANCES INLAND EACH NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZE WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE TO SOME
OR ALL OF THE COASTS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY INLAND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE REST OF TODAY WITH A DIMINISHING TREND OF MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT. INCREASED CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA 06Z-14Z, WITH THE NBM
SHOWING 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF MVFR AND IFR, BUT NOTE THAT HREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS SIMILAR CHANCES FOR LIFR INCREASING AFTER 06Z FOR A
FEW OF THE TAFS. VFR CLOUDS LOOK MORE PROBABLE DEVELOPING BY THE 16Z-
18Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY AFTER THE FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATE.
PREVAILING WINDS TODAY NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 5-10 KT AND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER COASTAL GEORGIA WILL WEAKEN TODAY
AS A A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING SITUATED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING SPEEDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD, CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE NORTH
WATERS. MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST, LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH WHILE STRENGTHENING
FURTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL BEACHES - MODERATE
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH ON SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL PERSIST GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS, AND
THEREFORE POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS AND AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS
DESPITE ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND GA. SHOWERS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT AREAS HIGH DISPERSIONS ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS AGAIN MONDAY WITH A
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH
MID WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY INLAND
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, LOCALLY DENSE. FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH...
BELOW ARE RECORDS FOR CLIMATE SITES AND YEAR IN WHICH THEY OCCURRED.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 25TH:
KJAX: 83/2023
KGNV: 85/1950
KCRG: 81/2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 46 74 45 56 / 0 10 10 30
SSI 50 68 50 58 / 0 0 10 30
JAX 49 76 52 64 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 54 74 55 69 / 0 0 10 20
GNV 51 80 54 73 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 52 80 55 78 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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