631
FXUS62 KJAX 042355
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- INCREASING RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
UPDATE
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL START TO
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, WITH OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS CREEP INTO SOME AREAS
WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHEAST FL, THOUGH OVERALL EXPECTING MUCH LOWER
CHANCES OF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WEDNESDAY, A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL OPEN UP AS BROAD TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH FL. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE AS SUPPORT WEAKENS
ALOFT AND THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TO SHIFT INLAND PAST I-
95 BEFORE MERGING WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE WEST OF US-17. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS NE FL WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING NUMEROUS BETWEEN US-17 AND HIGHWAY 301 WHILE DRIER AIR
ACROSS SE GA LIMITS CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH
WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND BEHIND SEABREEZE PASSAGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
COASTAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL FADE BY 10PM ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS INLAND SE GA AS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT PERPETUATES ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND
LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID 70S AT THE COAST.
THURSDAY, THE OPEN TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE
ATLANTIC RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SE GA
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL BRING IN
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURNING EASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE. A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE
CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FL PENINSULA AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST BECOMING NUMEROUS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 301 WHERE ATLANTIC/GULF SEABREEZE MERGER IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL MATCH WEDNESDAYS VALUES IN THE LOW 90S INLAND
AND THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
EACH DAY, POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG
STORM CELL MERGERS WITH OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT WOULD
SUPPORT GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS 40-50 MPH (MAINLY FROM HEAVY WATER
LOADING DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS) ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN LOW
LYING, FLOOD PRONE, AND URBAN AREAS GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO NE FL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DUE TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW.
THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL FL. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND LEAD TO GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZES MERGING
EAST NEAR I-95 AND US-17 CORRIDORS. DRIER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
LIMIT CONVECTION TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.
HIGHS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY, BE NEAR
AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, AND INCREASE TO ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO LESS STORM COVERAGE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DIP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENINGS AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
LINGERING ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOME
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR CAN
BE SAID ABOUT WINDS, IN WHICH SOME OUTFLOW/TSRA WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS
ARE MAINLY AFFECTING DUVAL AIRFIELDS WHICH WILL START TO ABATE AFTER
00Z. SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS AND PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS, WHICH
WILL BE NARROWED DOWN FOR IMPACTS AS CONVECTION STARTS TO INITIATE
AND EVOLVE.
MARINE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT,
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THEN BECOMING THE MAIN FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE EXPECTED, TURNING MORE EASTERLY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE DAILY, SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
RIP CURRENTS: A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST/ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASE IN LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BUILD SURF/BREAKERS TO
2-3 FEET BY MID-WEEK WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED AND
POTENTIALLY SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-4 FEET BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR SHIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EXCEPT AROUND
THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF SR 207/PALATKA WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AS IT REMAINS PINNED EAST OF I-95. DISPERSIONS
WILL BE IN THE GOOD RANGE TODAY WITH FAIR TO GOOD VALUES THIS WEEK
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS
INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS EAST SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN EACH AFTERNOON
WITH STORM OUTFLOWS CAUSING SUDDEN AND ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS, LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS, AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 92 72 92 / 10 30 40 60
SSI 77 89 78 89 / 30 10 30 30
JAX 73 91 73 91 / 20 30 20 40
SGJ 74 90 75 90 / 10 30 20 40
GNV 72 90 72 91 / 10 50 30 70
OCF 73 89 73 90 / 10 50 30 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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