125  
FXUS62 KJAX 241815  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
215 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
- LOW RH AND DRY FUELS TODAY SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. INCLUDES THE  
OSCEOLA NATIONAL FOREST  
 
- MARINE & BEACH HAZARDS TODAY & WORSEN THIS WEEKEND. HIGH RIP  
CURRENT RISK NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES. HIGH RISK EXPANDS TO  
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES SATURDAY. BUILDING, ROUGH SURF &  
BLUSTERY ONSHORE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY  
 
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY & MONDAY  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LIFT OUT, WITH  
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WILL SEE A  
SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS  
AREA. A DRY AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST FL  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN DISTINCTION BEING A SLIGHT WIND SURGE  
AND IS NOTED IN THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE  
AROUND 1028 MB WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE OHIO  
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH SUPPORTS THE INCREASED  
NORTHEAST WIND TODAY. SUNNY SKIES REST OF TODAY WITH SEASONABLE  
TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, AND LIGHTER WINDS  
WELL INLAND. WIND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT THE COAST WILL REMAIN  
A BIT BREEZY AT 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, THOUGH  
INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH MOVING  
INTO THE SRN U.S. AND MAY SEE SOME STRATOCU OFF THE WATERS ST  
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. LOWS MAINLY 50-55 FROM INLAND  
SOUTHEAST GA TO AROUND GAINESVILLE FL, AND THEN 55-60 TO AROUND  
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN, AND MID 60S COASTAL AREAS SINCE WE'LL  
HAVE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THOSE AREAS WARMER.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BETWEEN HIGH  
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST  
(TROPICAL STORM MELISSA) ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. DESPITE THE  
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY,  
PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNLIKELY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE A  
BIT COMPARED TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY, PWATS WILL INCREASE FURTHER  
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR  
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AS AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH FORMS  
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. OVERNIGHT, RAIN AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS  
NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND A SECONDARY FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND  
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL APPROACH 30-40 MPH BOTH DAYS.  
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH NEAR NORMAL, HIGHS IN  
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, WARMER TEMPS AS YOU GO SOUTHWARD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY  
AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING IN DRIER AIR  
AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY ONWARD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD  
ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG WHERE DECENT SHEAR  
AND INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE  
AND GRADUALLY COOL DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK AS TWO COLD FRONTS MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION, BY THURSDAY HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S BOTH  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, LOW 50S ALONG  
THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASED  
HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
TO GIVE WAY TO MORE STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO MVFR CIGS  
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME 12Z TO 18Z SAT. WINDS WILL TREND TO  
INCREASING SPEEDS REST OF TODAY AROUND 10-15 KT AND THEN SUBSIDE  
TONIGHT EXCEPT SLOWLY TO DECREASE ALONG COASTAL TAFS. WINDS RAMP  
AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TOWARD ABOUT  
20 KT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST  
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY,  
WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINNING THIS  
EVENING, CREATING STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS  
THAT WILL EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS  
DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP  
OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY ORGANIZE  
INTO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY  
NIGHT, POTENTIALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGER NORTH  
WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT  
WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW TODAY IS LEADING TO A MODERATE  
RISK OF RIPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES, AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS OVER NORTHEAST FL, WHICH WILL THEN EXPAND INTO THE GA  
BEACHES BY EARLY SATURDAY. ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP  
CURRENTS WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WELL INLAND TODAY WITH DRYING FUELS WILL  
LEAD TO A FIRE-SENSITIVE DAY. CURRENT READINGS SHOW VALUES IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 20S FROM INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE SUWANNEE  
VALLEY AREA. FORTUNATELY, WHERE THE WINDS ARE HIGHEST, EASTERN  
ZONES, ARE WHERE THE RH VALUE ARE MUCH HIGHER.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AMG 48 78 55 76 / 0 0 0 20  
SSI 62 76 65 77 / 0 0 10 20  
JAX 57 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 30  
SGJ 66 80 70 80 / 0 0 0 30  
GNV 55 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 20  
OCF 59 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 20  
 
 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-  
138-233-333.  
 
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
AMZ450-470.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-  
474.  
 
 
 
 
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