444
FXUS62 KJAX 161125
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
725 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS OVERSPREAD COASTAL LOCATIONS.
WIND GUSTS AT AREA BEACHES AROUND 35 MPH TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WIND
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. WAVES OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
THURSDAY & FRIDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
- DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL FL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING OVER
SOUTH FL BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING LOCAL
BREEZY ENE FLOW. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
30-35 MPH RANGE. MOIST AIRMASS QUICKLY GETS REPLACED BY DRIER AIR
(PWATS ~ 1 IN.) FILTERING IN FROM THE NE. DRIER AIR AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH CONVECTION ON LAND TODAY. HOWEVER, WAVES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
A FEW SHIFTING ONSHORE BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. AN EAST-WEST
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 60S IN INLAND
SE GA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS OVER THE AREA BEACHES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
- BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, TRENDING
DOWN FOR FRIDAY.
FOR THURSDAY, STRONG 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. GUSTS OF ABOUT 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED GUST OF
40 MPH, WHICH WOULD BE MORE PROBABLE IN A SHOWER. AN INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE WILL WORK TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALOFT, STRONG RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE TN VALLEY TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CLOSE TO 600DAM, WHILE A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED 500 MB LOW IS LOCATED FROM THE FL STRAITS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES ALOFT WILL
RETROGRADE THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRETTY DRY,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8-10 KFT, THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
MOIST AND ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE NOTED ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE MARINE
WATERS, WHILE WELL INLAND HAVE NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES. SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 500 MB LOW FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING WEST THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS AND THE LAND ZONES, AND THEN
PROBABLY INTO THE FAR EASTERN GULF BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK SFC
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. MEAN LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED, AND LEADING TO LESS BREEZY WINDS. A MUCH WEAKER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND INCREASING MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SO
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR NORTHEAST FL. HIGHEST CHANCES PROBABLY GOING TO BE AT
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ONLY ABOUT 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA. GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, IT
SEEMS REASONABLE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT PRIMARILY FOR
THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE FORECAST. ON THURSDAY, MAX TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 DEG, AND THEN MAX TEMPS
TREND UP 1-2 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S, BUT THE MID 70S COAST DUE EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES IS
LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE WEEKEND
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED 500 MB LOW WILL BE NEAR THE
FL WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING, AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD. MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE GFS MOVING IT
FASTER WEST THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH THROWS SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK, BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EASTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST,
AND LOWERING TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEAST GA WHERE DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED. MORE VEERED FLOW EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED INTO THE AREA FROM THE PREVAILING DEEP LAYER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY ONWARD: HIGH
AIRMASS MOISTURE IS FORECAST IN CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WITH PWATS OF
ABOUT 2 INCHES. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM EAST AND
SOUTHEAST, TO SOUTHERLY BY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE
AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO DIURNALLY- DRIVEN SCATTERED
AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY, AND FOSTERED
PARTLY BY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. IF THE REMNANTS OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF ENDS UP STALLING AND DRIFTS NORTH
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THEN WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS COULD CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SO,
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND GUSTY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
SUBISIDE AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF A COOL FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY
ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, MAINLY AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. STRONG SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY
AND THURSDAY, AND MAY STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON FRIDAY.
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 86 76 86 75 / 20 0 20 0
JAX 87 74 87 71 / 20 10 20 0
SGJ 86 76 86 75 / 20 20 20 20
GNV 90 72 89 70 / 10 10 10 0
OCF 90 72 90 71 / 10 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
454-470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page