024  
FXUS62 KJAX 062319  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
719 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, BUT MOST OF  
THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER FOR TODAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...FIRST IMPULSE OF MOISTURE/ENERGY ALOFT IS  
TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO  
KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NE FL, MAINLY SOUTH  
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNSET AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH  
SEA BREEZE AS THEY PUSH INLAND. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER, BUT  
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES.  
 
REST OF TONIGHT...LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN  
FEATURES BEFORE THE NEXT IMPULSE OF ENERGY/MOISTURE ARRIVES ON  
WEDNESDAY, SO AFTER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT,  
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS  
FROM TIME TO TIME. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN  
THE 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LIGHT TO  
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION OVER INLAND  
AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
 
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE  
FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STEERING FLOW  
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO  
DOMINATE ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER  
NORTHEAST FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS WILL  
APPROACH 1.5-2.0" WHICH WILL ENHANCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED  
WITH STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON  
THURSDAY, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER OVER SE GA  
AS OPPOSED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY.  
 
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY CAPABLE OF  
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, RELATIVELY WEAK  
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL TEND  
TO LIMIT SEVERE STORM RISK AND RATHER PROMOTE LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY NEAR BOUNDARY MERGERS AND WHERE STORMS TRAIN  
NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO  
LOWER 90S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
 
A STORMY WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE  
GULF, EXTENDING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EACH DAY, WITH INCREASED COVERAGE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS SEA BREEZES MAKE  
THEIR WAY INLAND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE  
MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING  
POTENTIAL CONCERNS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY  
SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY FOR SE GA AND NE FL. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 706 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
 
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP  
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG  
WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE TIME  
PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A TEMPO  
GROUP.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
 
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH VARIABLE WINDS  
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NEAR  
THE ATLANTIC COAST EACH DAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASE  
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR A POTENTIAL GULF  
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SOMETIME  
LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH LIKELY HEADLINES FOR POTENTIAL SCA FLAGS  
ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE LOCAL WATERS.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND DAILY SEA  
BREEZE PATTERN AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE WATERS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AMG 62 81 63 84 / 0 50 30 70  
SSI 70 82 68 82 / 10 70 40 60  
JAX 67 88 66 86 / 10 70 20 70  
SGJ 69 87 68 84 / 30 70 30 70  
GNV 66 90 66 89 / 10 60 10 80  
OCF 68 90 68 89 / 10 50 20 70  
 
 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
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