491
FXUS62 KJAX 150044
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
844 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE FOR MID-AUGUST CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND
WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. RECORD LOW OF 67F
AT JAX FOR 8/15 WILL BE CHALLENGED MONDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING AT 10% OR LESS FOR ALL AREAS. THE
DRIER AIRMASS WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH A
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND TO AROUND THE US 301 CORRIDOR
OR SO, BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO TRIGGER ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION [724 PM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER MARION COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, A DRY AIRMASS (PWATS
0.9-1.5 IN.) CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. JAX MAY REACH ITS RECORD LOW OF
67 DEGREES. SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MARION
COUNTY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY.
AUG. 15 RECORD LOWS:
JAX 67 1983
GNV 66 1904
AMG 60 1967
SSI 66 1982
CRG 67 1982
SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS (PWATS 1-1.3 IN) OVER THE
AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN GA. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY BUT A
STRAY SHOWER MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MARION WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
MERGE WITH LINGERING BETTER MOISTURE. MOISTURE GRADUALLY RECOVERS
ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AS THE PUSH INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS RETURN
TO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
GA. CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS TO AROUND 2+ INCHES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY ACROSS SE GA AND NE
FL. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR URBAN AND
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE 07-11Z TIME FRAME AT
VQQ/GNV, THE INLAND TAF SITES OF NE FL.
MARINE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE
REGION MID WEEK, AND STALL OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK BRINGING UNSETTLED, STORMIER WEATHER.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY
NE FL: MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 66 94 72 94 72 / 0 10 10 40 20
SSI 72 88 76 92 76 / 0 0 10 40 40
JAX 67 93 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 30 30
SGJ 69 89 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 20 20
GNV 68 93 71 94 74 / 10 10 0 30 20
OCF 69 93 71 93 74 / 20 10 10 30 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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