975
FXUS62 KJAX 202315
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
615 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY
UPDATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON TRACK AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, BUT
STILL EXPECT SOME LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA
AND INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL, ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHY FROST STILL POSSIBLE, WHILE THE REST OF NE FL AND
COASTAL SE GA WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S. THE WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAT PUSHED INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON DID
PROVIDE A BOOST OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE I-95 AND US 301
CORRIDORS, THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR DENSE FOG POTENTIAL FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM
BRUNSWICK SOUTHWARD TO JACKSONVILLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHICH
SHOULD PROGRESS INLAND TO THE US 301 CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING AND EXPECT AT LEAST POCKETS OF DENSE FOG IN THIS CORRIDOR
AND DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED TOWARDS MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, AS WELL AS A
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZY THAT WILL BE NEAR
CALM/VARIABLE AT TIMES. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED
GENERALLY FROM NEAR I- 10 NORTHWARD, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
FROST CONCERNS OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, FOG IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
LOCALIZED PATCHY FROST ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER AREAS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
NEAR THE COATS AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AFTER CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW. COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. A LOW < 20% OF A
LIGHT COASTAL SHOWER AS WELL. MAIN LOCAL IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS 25-30 MPH AT TIMES, ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK AT LOCAL BEACHES. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS TUESDAY AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 70S WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 50 COAST. FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AS A LARGE 500 MB DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN BEGINS TO DAMPEN SOME INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY, ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80S WELL INLAND WITH
LOWS WARMING FROM THE 40S INLAND TO 50S COAST MID WEEK TO WIDESPREAD
50 INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THIS PERIOD WILL BE SEVERAL
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS OF FOG, LIKELY LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR ALL SITES
THROUGH AROUND 06Z. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
FOG FORMATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR (30-40%) TO LIFR (10-20%)
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR TERMINALS ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THESE LOWER CONDS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NE WINDS
FROM 15Z ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEDGES DOWN
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS WELL AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE. ELEVATED SEAS AREA LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SUNDAY
NE FL MODERATE SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
WIDESPREAD LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY...
AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS SUNDAY...
PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS MONDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS, AND
THEREFORE POOR DISPERSIONS. GOOD MIXING OVER INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO
DROP MINRH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL, AS LOW AS THE LOW 20S OF PERCENT
OVER FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO TREND
UPWARD ON SUNDAY, LIMITED TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOW OR POOR
SMOKE DISPERSIONS AGAIN SUNDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL ZONES. PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST FL. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY, AND AN OVERALL STAGNANT PATTERN WILL THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY
ONWARD THROUGH CHRISTMAS LEADING TO LOWER DAYTIME DISPERSION AND
BOUTS OF MORNING FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FL SUNDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MORNING FOG DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 35 71 44 63 / 0 10 0 0
SSI 44 64 50 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 39 72 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 46 70 53 70 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 41 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 44 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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