012  
FXUS62 KJAX 050904  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
404 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NW OF THE REGION OVER  
SOUTHERN AL WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH  
OR LESS AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE SOUTHEAST  
COAST TOWARDS COASTAL GA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST AT THIS  
HOUR, A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN ALONG THE NE FL COAST TO  
THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER IN  
THE MID 40S COMPARED TO THE REST OF NE FL LINGERING IN THE LOWER  
40S AS CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE. AS THE BACK  
DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM SE GA INTO NE FL LATER THIS  
MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST  
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 10-15 MPH  
AWAY FROM THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD  
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND  
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION UNDER SUNNY SKIES FOR THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE DAY WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THEN BEGINNING TO STREAM IN  
FROM THE WEST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE  
TX COAST.  
 
TONIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ARRIVING SOUTH OF I-10 OVER NE FL BY THE PREDAWN HOURS. NORTHEAST  
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT THE COAST AROUND 10-15  
MPH OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 5-10 MPH INLAND. LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL  
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND AROUND 50 AT THE  
SE GA COAST AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES WITH  
LOW 50S OVER INLAND NE FL AND MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE NE FL  
COAST.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH REGION AS A GULF LOW  
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO  
MOST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF WAYCROSS  
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STABLE, COOLER  
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL AND GENERALLY KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT. SHOWERS COME TO AN END  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
CLEARING SKIES AND ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN WILL CAUSE  
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER,  
THE BETTER FROST COVERAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS  
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
60S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE  
UPPER 40S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
DRY WEEK AHEAD WITH A WARMING TREND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING THE  
REGION DRY AND MAINTAINING AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA  
TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS, THEN WINDS INCREASE AFTER 13Z  
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE REGIONAL TERMINALS  
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FROM 13Z-15Z AT KSSI  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND THEN BECOMING  
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 15Z-16Z AT ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS AT COASTAL  
TERMINALS 12-14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AND WINDS INLAND  
8-10 KNOTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z OVER THE REGION  
WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF  
THE PERIOD AND SCATTERED LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 2.5 KFT SNEAKING  
IN AT KGNV AND KVQQ. SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF WEST OF THE INLAND  
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE 06Z PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS  
MORNING AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA WATERS  
EARLY TODAY WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO  
TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL  
EXIT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY, THEN NORTH MONDAY, AND NORTHEAST  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY  
NE FL: HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MANY RIVER SITES REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD ALONG THE ALTAMAHA, SANTE FE,  
AND THE SATILLA BASINS. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS MOST OF THE  
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY SHOULD FALL SOUTH OF THESE BASINS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 69 45 61 37 61 / 0 10 10 0 0  
SSI 63 50 60 43 60 / 0 10 30 10 0  
JAX 69 51 61 44 62 / 0 20 40 20 0  
SGJ 68 56 62 49 61 / 0 20 50 30 0  
GNV 75 51 61 41 66 / 0 30 60 20 0  
OCF 77 53 65 44 68 / 0 30 60 30 0  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE  
TONIGHT FOR COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL FLAGLER-COASTAL NASSAU-  
COASTAL ST. JOHNS.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page