895
FXUS62 KJAX 241324
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW CLIMATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDING NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, ALONG WITH DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT DROPPING PWATS LESS THAN
2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS THE EAST COAST/GULF COAST SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND AND MEET NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT,
ALONG WITH A FEW POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60
MPH. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND
AROUND 90F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-106F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A FAIRLY DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF COAST REGION, NEAR AND EAST OF 90W.
A WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR
87W. CURRENT 1000-500 MB STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA IS EAST TO
EAST- SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KT WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY
AT 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER
PARTS OF GA WHERE PWATS ARE HIGHER AND BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXISTS.
FOR TODAY, OVERALL LOWER RAIN CHANCES OWING TO SOME DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, ALIGNING WITH THE PREVAILING
MEAN STEERING FLOW DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WITH PWATS NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OF ABOUT 1.8 INCHES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTN HOURS, AND WILL SEE
SOME ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOUT 60 PERCENT AROUND THE BROAD AREA
OF I-75 CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW ALLOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
MERGE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR I-75. WILL HAVE CHANCES ABOUT
30 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 50-60 PERCENT WELL INLAND
OVER NORTHEAST FL. LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST GA INLAND
ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT WHERE LESS CONVERGENCE IS NOTED. SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES
FOR WELL INLAND AREAS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 2000-2500
J/KG, AND DCAPE OF ABOUT 800 IS INDICATED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.
FOR HIGHS, TEMPS OF THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S/90 AT THE
COAST. MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE SHY OF ANY HEAT ADVISORIES TO
ABOUT 104-107. AFTER SCATTERED CONVECTION ENDS INLAND IN THE EVENING,
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE MID 70S INLAND AND TOWARD
UPPER 70S COAST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH THIS
MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF
FL DURING THE END OF THE WEEK, MOVING OVER NORTH FL BY SATURDAY
MORNING, AND FINALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER DRY AIR TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY, RESULTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS. THE OUTLIERS WILL
BE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER FOR FRIDAY WITH EACH MODEL RUN
AS THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA AND TOWARDS THE GULF WATERS. WITH THAT SAID, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY, CAN'T RULE OUT SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES
INLAND.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
TICK UPWARD ONCE AGAIN, RISING CLOSE TO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER AS INLAND RISE
TO THE UPPER 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS AS SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING PEAK HEATING TIMES.
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, MORE SO ON
SATURDAY, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TOWARDS THE GULF DURING THE BACK HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, DRY AIR OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOCAL AREA ASIDE
FROM POSSIBLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AS
IT MOVES INLAND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO TUESDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, POTENTIALLY
REACHING NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SOME LOCATIONS, COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH THE SEA BREEZE OFFERING SOME
RELIEF. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLAY EACH DAY INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
LOW STRATUS AT INLAND TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH LIFR CONDS AT
GNV AND VQQ, WITH POSSIBLY REACHING JAX JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOLLOWING THE LIFTING OF STRATUS BY 13-15Z TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL CHANCES MUCH LOWER TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TRIM
BACK THE PROB30 GROUPS TO JUST VCSH AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AND
CONTINUE JUST PROB30 FOR TSRA ACTIVITY TO JUST GNV/VQQ THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDS TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL LATE NIGHT FOG AT
VQQ/GNV TOWARDS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF
BERMUDA, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEST TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. THIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE MIDDAY LOW TIDE, INCREASED TIDAL RANGE, AND
ONSHORE FLOW. STILL, SURF WILL AT MOST BE 1-2 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
SAT 7/26 SUN 7/27 MON 7/28
JACKSONVILLE, FL 102/1872 100/1872 104/1872
GAINESVILLE, FL 100/1952 101/1893 97/2010
CRAIG AIRPORT, FL 97/2012 99/2010 98/2016
ALMA, GA (AMG) 101/2012 99/2014 100/2006
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 74 95 74 / 30 10 30 10
SSI 88 79 90 79 / 20 10 10 0
JAX 93 76 95 75 / 30 10 30 0
SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 30 20 30 0
GNV 93 74 95 74 / 50 40 40 10
OCF 92 74 94 75 / 70 60 50 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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