600
FXUS62 KJAX 201801
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT
THE HIGHEST CONCERNS TODAY REMAIN THE HIGH SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE. AS SUCH, THE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN LEFT AS IS. THE
MOST MARGINAL OF THESE HAZARDS IS THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT, WHICH BY
TIDAL STANDARDS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE, BUT THE TOTAL-WATER-LEVEL (TIDE
+ WAVE ACTION) IMPACT MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
HURRICANE ERIN IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AND IT'S CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH, CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES OFF OF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE
BEACH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMPRESSED GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGED IN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST AND ERIN HAS LEAD
TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS, PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A BATTERING AND GROWING SURF. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND BEGIN TO EASE OFF THIS EVENING
AS ERIN PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENTS LOOSEN.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL TODAY, COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED, WIDELY SCATTERED
AT MOST, BY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. UPDRAFTS WILL BE SUFFOCATED BY
THE DRIER AIR AND BE SHALLOW NATURED AND ULTIMATELY REDUCE ANY
THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GIVEN THE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR MIXING TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH
INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COOLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
THURSDAY, DRIER AIR WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF ERIN DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY SOUTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY. LIFT ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA
FROM THE DEPARTING TROPICAL SYSTEM, STRONG HEATING, AND
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS INTERACTING WITH A PINNED ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
WILL CREATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T'STORMS MAY PULSE ALONG THE NE
FL COAST NEAR THE PINNED ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WITH A THREAT FOR
GUSTY WINDS 40-55 MPH FROM WET DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTING. THE DRIER AIRMASS AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST
WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES LIMITED A BIT TO 102-106 AS DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S OVER SE GA AND THE LOW/MID 70S OVER NE FL.
THURSDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL LINGER TO NEAR MIDNIGHT
AS DUE TO THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY BEFORE PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S INLAND AND THE MID/UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
FRIDAY, THE ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS 2.00
TO 2.30 INCHES) INTO THE AREA AS A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA FROM CENTRAL GA AND SC. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, LIFT
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND ALONG CONVERGING SEABREEZES WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T'STORMS FROM NUMEROUS TO MORE
WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION, WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FRIDAY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THAT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.
STRONGER T'STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE WHERE SEABREEZES INTERACT WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY FROM I-95 TO THE COAST BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TO AROUND 90 AT THE BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
GENERALLY ACROSS SE GA ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS NE FL ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY NEAR OR OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND THE GULF/ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL KEEP NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. ISOLATED STRONGER T'STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS 40-55 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH OVERALL SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL KEEP
A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY, A MORE POTENT UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY AND SUPPORT A FAST MOVING DRIER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH NEAR OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER BACK INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL BE OVER NE FL AREA SOUTH OF I-10 WITH
DECREASING CHANCES NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE DRIER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SE GA AND NE FL BY MIDWEEK AND SETTLE INTO CENTRAL FL WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS TO NE FL WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THAT WILL MAKE
OUTDOOR CONDITIONS LESS HOT WITH HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO THE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
HIGHS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL AND TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BEGIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, THEN TREND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
INLAND SE GA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED AND SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH TO SOUTH FROM SOUTHEAST GA AND INTO NORTHEAST FL THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LINGERING AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE JAX METRO,
CONFIDENCE ON SHOWERS AT TERMINAL IN THAT AREA ARE LOW BUT THE
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MILD
MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE A KGNV BUT STILL PROBS ARE STILL LOW
(<20%) AND DIDN'T JUSTIFY ANY DIRECT MENTION IN THE TAF. FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS, MVFR VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY AMID A MORE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW.
MARINE
SURF CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH OBSERVED WAVES NEAR SOUTHERN FLAGLER
COUNT (41070) NOW REACHING JUST OVER 6 FEET. BREAKERS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AND PEAK THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SEAS CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AS HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS NORTH, REMAINING
HUNDREDS OF MILES OFFSHORE. THOUGH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP, LINGERING
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A TRAILING TROUGH WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
ERIN ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY WHERE
IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, ELEVATING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS
AND SURF ZONE CONDITIONS
STRONG, LARGE SWELLS EMANATING FROM ERIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH SURF AND DEADLY RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH BREAKERS REACHING 7-10 FEET TONIGHT FALLING TO 5-8
FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEACH GOERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HEED THE
DOUBLE-RED FLAGS BEING FLOWN AT AREA BEACHES AND STAY OUT OF THE
SURF.
HYDROLOGY
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FROM 5 PM
TO 11 PM EDT DUE TO THE RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS SWELLS FROM
HURRICANE ERIN PUSH INTO THE COAST. THE HIGHEST TIDE IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AROUND 8 PM EDT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST. MARGINAL
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL
MARKS REACHING UP 1.4-1.8 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER BY ONE-QUATER FOOT (0.25 FT). CONSIDERING WAVE
RUN UP AND THE ELEVATED TIDE, MINOR BEACH EROSION REMAINS ON THE
TABLE THIS EVENING FOR THE LOCAL BEACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 73 95 73 / 10 10 30 40
SSI 91 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 40
JAX 93 75 97 76 / 30 10 40 30
SGJ 90 76 94 76 / 40 10 40 30
GNV 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 50 20
OCF 93 76 93 76 / 20 20 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-
333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page