537
FXUS62 KJAX 230426
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1226 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS
IMPACTED: INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES. HIGH
RISK LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND & EARLY NEXT WEEK
- LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 0.50 INCHES OR
LESS WILL SETTLE OVER THE NE FL/SE GA LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15G25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AROUND 80F ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND NE FL. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS INLAND SE GA, UPPER 40S/NEAR
50F ACROSS INLAND NE FL, WHILE 50S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW/MILDER OCEAN TEMPS NEARBY.
AIRMASS STILL LIKELY TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION,
BUT THE USUAL PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE NEAR INLAND WATERWAYS BOTH
MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY, TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
WINDS AT THE COAST.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COASTAL COMMUNITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL YIELD MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION, SO THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ON SUNDAY, SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COAST, AS AN UPPER WAVE DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGHING AND UPPER ENERGY
WILL PROVIDE FOR RAINFALL CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY, AS REGION REMAINS IN
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL YIELD CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INTO MID WEEK.
THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDED FOR NE FL COAST.
DUE TO CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS, AND NEAR TO ABOVE DURING NIGHTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE WINDS
INCREASING TO 10G15 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY,
WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD DURING
THE WEEKEND, CREATING LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR NEAR SHORE
WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AND SURF/BREAKERS
AROUND 2 FEET. NORTHEAST/ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIPS ON FRIDAY BECOMING A
HIGH RISK OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF/BREAKERS
WILL BUILD INTO THE 5-7 FT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY
AS HIGH AS 7-10 FT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY, WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES GOING INTO MID WEEK.
ELEVATED WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE
ESPECIALLY GUSTY AT THE COAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT. MINRH LEVELS IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON
TODAY, THEN MORE CONFINED TO INTERIOR NE FL FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 45 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 74 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 77 52 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 76 60 79 67 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 81 51 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 82 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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