524
FXUS62 KJAX 141823
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCAL NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY, CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY COASTAL CONDITIONS, ROUGH & DANGEROUS
SURF, STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA
WEAKER AND TRANSITIONING FLOW PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS A DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH MUCH DRIER ACROSS
THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPANNING 1.3" NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA TO OVER 2" ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW
IS RELATIVELY WEAK, DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE A DEEPER INLAND
PUSH OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TODAY. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL SE GA, THE PRIMARY FOCUS
AND HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE INLAND
(WEST OF I-95) THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLOWER AND LARGELY SEA-
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORM MOTION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING. AS
OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZES COLLIDE BETWEEN THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND US 301
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
CONVECTION WILL FADE AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME LIGHT TRAILING
STRATIFORM IN ITS WAKE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL ALSO FADE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY A QUIET NIGHT WILL FOLLOW THE CONVECTIVE CESSATION
BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE DOWN THE GA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, GENERALLY IN THE LOW
90S ACROSS NE FL AND LOW/MID 90S IN SE GA WHERE THE AIRMASS IS
DRIER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX TODAY IN THE 100-108
RANGE, WHICH IS HOT BUT WILL STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LIMITS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR REGARDING LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND UPPER
70S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF LIKELY FOR AREA BEACHES
STARTING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS BEGINS TUESDAY, CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH, OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSER TO
40MPH BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING MORNING
SHOWERS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST, SPREADING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO INLAND
GEORGIA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY (PWATS 1-
1.5"), KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LOW, ONLY AROUND 15-20%
NEAR THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE 'COOLER' NEAR
THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD
QUITE THE SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
DRY AIR LAYS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
THE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DO EASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY, BUT WE WILL
STILL SEE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE BEACHES. MORNING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS AGAIN WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BREAKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NE
FL SOUTH OF I-10, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS ELSEWHERE.
THERE'S A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT JAX METRO TERMINALS BUT ELECTED
TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE TO LOW-END TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA GIVEN THE
BUILDING INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR +TSRA
AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS AND LIFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR (KGNV/KOCF/KLCQ) BETWEEN 20-24Z TODAY.
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AND DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND WNW AT OR
BELOW 10 KNOTS UNTIL THE EASTERLY SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
BRINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR STRATOCUMULUS, GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST) AND WAVES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA WATERS TODAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SEA BREEZE WINDS DEVELOPING FROM THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
AND WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA NEARSHORE WATERS.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A STRONG NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, ROUGH SEAS, AND WAVES OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WATERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS WEAKEN AND SEAS GRADUALLY
LOWER.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS (EXCEPTING FOR THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE) AND WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS WILL KEEP A LOW-END MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. BY TUESDAY, STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SURF COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF
AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AREA BEACHES DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AS A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. MUCH HIGHER WINDS BEGIN BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH,
GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH. THESE ELEVATED WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. THE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER
HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION FOR
THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
FOG POTENTIAL... SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING INLAND AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 94 73 91 69 / 10 0 20 0
SSI 92 79 87 77 / 10 0 40 10
JAX 92 75 88 75 / 30 0 60 30
SGJ 90 77 87 77 / 20 10 60 50
GNV 93 74 90 74 / 50 10 50 20
OCF 93 75 91 75 / 70 30 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ452-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR AMZ454-474.
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