491  
FXUS62 KJAX 150044  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
844 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS ALOFT AND  
AT THE SURFACE FOR MID-AUGUST CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND  
WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S  
INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. RECORD LOW OF 67F  
AT JAX FOR 8/15 WILL BE CHALLENGED MONDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE.  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL  
RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING AT 10% OR LESS FOR ALL AREAS. THE  
DRIER AIRMASS WILL HEAT UP QUICKLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH A  
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND TO AROUND THE US 301 CORRIDOR  
OR SO, BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO TRIGGER ANY  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [724 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER MARION COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE  
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS  
BOUNDARY LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN MARION  
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, A DRY AIRMASS (PWATS  
0.9-1.5 IN.) CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. JAX MAY REACH ITS RECORD LOW OF  
67 DEGREES. SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MARION  
COUNTY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY.  
 
AUG. 15 RECORD LOWS:  
JAX 67 1983  
GNV 66 1904  
AMG 60 1967  
SSI 66 1982  
CRG 67 1982  
 
   
SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS (PWATS 1-1.3 IN) OVER THE  
AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES  
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN GA. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY BUT A  
STRAY SHOWER MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MARION WHERE THE SEA BREEZES  
MERGE WITH LINGERING BETTER MOISTURE. MOISTURE GRADUALLY RECOVERS  
ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND  
ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AS THE PUSH INLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS RETURN  
TO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 ON  
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND  
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
GA. CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE  
INCREASING PWATS TO AROUND 2+ INCHES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH, NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY ACROSS SE GA AND NE  
FL. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY  
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR URBAN AND  
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW  
90S. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]  
 
DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE 07-11Z TIME FRAME AT  
VQQ/GNV, THE INLAND TAF SITES OF NE FL.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THIS  
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA ON  
MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE  
REGION MID WEEK, AND STALL OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE  
IN THE WEEK BRINGING UNSETTLED, STORMIER WEATHER.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY  
NE FL: MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 66 94 72 94 72 / 0 10 10 40 20  
SSI 72 88 76 92 76 / 0 0 10 40 40  
JAX 67 93 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 30 30  
SGJ 69 89 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 20 20  
GNV 68 93 71 94 74 / 10 10 0 30 20  
OCF 69 93 71 93 74 / 20 10 10 30 20  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 
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