144
FXUS62 KJAX 100625
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 104-108 POSSIBLE
AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
THIS MORNING SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL
COASTAL WATERS, WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE, SLOWLY WEAKENING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1024
MILLIBARS) WAS NOW CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA, WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING ITS AXIS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...A REMNANT
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
SHEARING OUT AS RIDGING CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WAS
EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DEEPER MOISTURE PREVAILS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR, WHERE PWATS WERE IN THE 1.8 - 2 INCH
RANGE, WHILE VALUES NORTH OF I-10 WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 -
1.75 INCH RANGE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE BEING
GENERATED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FL WERE OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE,
MAINLY ALONG THE DUVAL AND ST. JOHNS COUNTY COASTLINES. MID AND
HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WAS GRADUALLY THINNING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION AS TROUGHING SHEARS OUT, WITH THE
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING POCKETS OF LOWER CUMULUS
CLOUDS, MAINLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES AT 06Z REMAIN
IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, EXCEPT UPPER 60S FOR
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID
60S. DEWPOINTS ELSEWHERE WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL COASTS THIS MORNING, LIKELY
DEVELOPING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND,
WITH THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FOCUSING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WILL INCREASE
ABOVE 1.75 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST ENOUGH FORCING
PROVIDED BY THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING INLAND
BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
LESS IN THE WAY OF MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE MORNING SHOWERS AND BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON KEEP HIGHS IN THE 85-90
DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 95-100 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
A LATE DEVELOPING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY COLLIDE
WITH THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS EVENING
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WHICH COULD KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FAIR SKIES WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER STRATUS CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT INLAND LOCATIONS TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID
70S, WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE POTENTIALLY KEEPING COASTAL
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT INDEX BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS TO END THE WORK WEEK.
- GRADUAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES ON THURSDAY.
NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE
PATTERN. A LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY, REALIGNING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO EAST OF US 301 ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE DIURNAL EACH DAY, WITH A PRONOUNCED
DOWNWARD TREND AFTER SUNSET AND DRY CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE AN INFLUX IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK BUT THE LATEST REFS GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING
STRETCH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STRONG, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND SPOTTY, BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
THIS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL BOOST TEMPS TO END THE WEEK, WITH LOW TO MID
90S INLAND THURSDAY TO WIDESPREAD HIGHS READING IN THE MID 90S
BY FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHSIDE
ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. COMBINING THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY TO THE LOWER
100S FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DANGEROUS HEAT FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS THIS WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THIS WEEKEND.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO 50-70% FOR
COASTAL AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND AS DEEP
MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF A STALLING FRONT SITUATED TO THE
NORTHWEST IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WILL
FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST, PARTICULARLY
ON SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DANGEROUS
HEAT FORECAST. HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
INLAND, AND LOW 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 104-108 DEGREES SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
COMPOUNDING HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S, IT'LL FEEL OPPRESSIVE FOR
PUBLIC THAT AREN'T ABLE TO STAY ADEQUATELY COOL. A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SATURDAY.
FOR NEXT WEEK, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW IS ENHANCED BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS TOWARD THE AREA BUT IS LIKELY TO
STALL TO THE NORTH, KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES/HEAVIER RAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL PREVAIL, TEMPERATURES
AT THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE AS HOT AS INLAND LOCATIONS NEXT
WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING SGJ AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SSI AFTER SUNRISE
AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CONFIDENCE
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30 GROUPS INDICATING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT JAX AND CRG DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AT VQQ WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LIFR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES INLAND, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS AT GNV TOWARDS 19Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE
AT GNV THROUGH AROUND 23Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TERMINALS BY 20Z AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND TOWARDS
THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP AT VQQ TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SUSTAINED
AT 5- 10 KNOTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 15Z, WHILE SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10- 15 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY 19Z.
MARINE
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS WILL PROGRESS INLAND AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY. OTHERWISE,
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND ITS
AXIS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND
WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS
INLAND, WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS. WEAK TROUGHING WILL THEN DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, SHIFTING PREVAILING WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
THIS SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY EVENING
WIND SURGES MAY INCREASE SPEEDS TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE
WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL TO MAINTAIN A
LOWER END MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OUTGOING TIDE. THIS SWELL
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING THE LOWER END
MODERATE RISK IN PLACE AT AREA BEACHES. THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
WILL THEN FADE TOWARDS FRIDAY, WHICH COULD LOWER THE RISK AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES, WHILE A LOWER END MODERATE RISK LIKELY
CONTINUES EACH AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WHERE
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOLLOWING THE INLAND MOVEMENT
OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A POSITION TO FAVOR THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT ACCOMPANYING SEA BREEZE WIND
SPEEDS TO BE IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE, OR AROUND 5-9 AT EYE LEVEL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT UP THIS WEEK WITH MID 90S
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WHILE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BE SIMILAR
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND 40- 45%. ANTICIPATE THE RETURN OF
MORE REGULAR BOUTS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEK AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THOUGH FINE FUELS HAVE DRIED TO
CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE RECENT DRY STRETCH, THERE IS NO
GLARING POTENTIAL OF CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER ALIGNMENT. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AND ELEVATED DISPERSION WILL DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
THE RETURN OF SUMMERTIME HEAT LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. LESS LIKELY TO
SEE READINGS REACH RECORD HIGHS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE THREATENED.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12: KJAX: 99/1998
JUNE 13: KJAX: 100/1977
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11: KJAX: 77/2005 KGNV: 75/2005
JUNE 12: KJAX: 79/1952 KGNV: 76/1963
JUNE 13: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 79/1998
JUNE 14: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 77/1998
JUNE 15: KJAX: 80/1880 KGNV: 78/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 91 73 94 75 / 20 10 10 0
SSI 86 77 89 78 / 20 10 10 0
JAX 91 74 94 76 / 30 0 20 0
SGJ 88 73 91 75 / 30 0 10 0
GNV 93 72 94 73 / 30 30 30 20
OCF 92 73 93 74 / 50 30 40 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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