129
FXUS62 KJAX 021248
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
848 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
UPDATE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CURRENTLY. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH INTERESTINGLY, MOST
HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW LESS COVERAGE THAN PRIOR DAYS, AND MOS
GUIDANCE ONLY HAS POP OF 50-60 PCT TODAY. WITH THIS, WILL DECREASE
POP/COVERAGE A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN HOURLY POP/WEATHER
GRIDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE,
WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED TO COAST IN WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...MAY ALSO SEE A FEW CELLS ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY N OF FORECAST AREA...THAT COULD AFFECT OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AS IN PRIOR DAYS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP
AND PRODUCE 40-50 MPH WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY
LOOKS FINE.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS, EXCEPT LOCALLY LOWER IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
6-12 KTS TODAY, EXCEPT STRONG AND GUSTY IN TSRA.
MARINE
STAGNANT PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE
PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WATERS WITH AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW, MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 72 91 72 91 / 60 20 60 10 60
SSI 91 75 88 76 88 / 50 40 40 20 40
JAX 93 73 91 74 90 / 60 40 70 20 60
SGJ 91 74 89 74 88 / 60 40 70 30 60
GNV 91 73 90 73 88 / 70 20 90 40 80
OCF 91 74 90 74 89 / 70 30 80 40 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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