616
FXUS62 KJAX 291649
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1249 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK & HIGH SURF ADVISORY TODAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTORMS POSSIBLE MON THROUGH SAT, MAINLY INLAND
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT INLAND LOCATIONS
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
- WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, WITH SOME
IMPACTS DUE TO SMOKE SETTLING NEAR THE GROUND TONIGHT
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: BREEZY/EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL. MAX TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 AT
ATLANTIC BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS
SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS NE FL WILL SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT LIKELY NOT DEEP ENOUGH
CONVECTION TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS INLAND SE GA WITH AN ONGOING
FIRE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN WARE COUNTY. THE SMOKE FROM THIS FIRE
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO ATKINSON AND COFFEE COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT: BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 MPH INLAND AND 10G15
MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AFTER SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH ONLY LOW
CHANCES OF ANY ACTIVITY REACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES/I-95 CORRIDOR.
LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S INLAND AND REMAIN AROUND 60 ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG.
SOME MIXED SMOKE/FOG (SUPER FOG) WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE WILDFIRE LOCATION ACROSS INLAND SE GA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK PERSISTS INTO MONDAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED T'STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS
EAST TO NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TOWARDS A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS MORE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-20G25 RANGE
WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS THE COAST AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL, PERSISTING
ELEVATED SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POPPING UP WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND AS
HEATING/INSTABILITY INCREASES AS THE FLOW SHIFTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, MAINLY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE WEAK GULF BREEZE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND, WITH
MID 70S MORE COMMON NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL UPTICK TO LOW TO MID
80S INLAND TUESDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS MORE MILD MORNING
LOWS WILL ALSO REINTRODUCE FOG POTENTIAL INLAND ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS DROP ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS & T'STORMS EACH AFTERNOON & EVENING
- PATCHY NIGHTLY FOG, LOCALLY DENSE INLAND
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST FOR THE LONG TERM
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME FEATURING JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY WARM TEMPS DAILY WILL PERSIST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE LONG TERM, IN ADDITION
TO MORNING FOG CHANCES PRIMARILY INLAND WHERE WINDS CALM DOWN EACH
NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND NORTHEAST FL WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE.
OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN GOING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM, WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKELY
UNTIL AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, WITH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS FROM THIS BEING LOW AT THIS TIME. AS SUGGESTED ABOVE, TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, THOUGH AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER BY THE COAST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CONTINUES IN THE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT HAS BECOME VFR CIGS IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE FOR THE
MOST PART, AND OTHER THAN A BRIEF MVFR CIG OR BRIEF SHOWER (VCSH) AT
SGJ/GNV EXPECT MAIN IMPACT TO BE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS CLOSE TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET, THEN
WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT INLAND TERMINALS AND 8-
10 KNOTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG WITH CONTINUED VFR CIGS. THESE
LIGHT EAST WINDS AT INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT AT
THIS TIME. LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, THE EAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z TO 10-13G15-20 KNOTS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGHOUT
OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH ELEVATED SEAS KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS.
MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, GENERATING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NEAR BERMUDA
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK, MAINTAINING
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH ELEVATED
SEAS PERSISTING OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS / HIGH SURF:
LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE ON TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL AREA BEACHES, WITH BREAKERS OF
8-10 FEET CONTINUING AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH HEIGHTS OF 5-
7 FEET EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE PRESENT, AND THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR ANYONE WHO
VENTURES INTO THE SURF ZONE THROUGH MONDAY. SURF WILL ONLY GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL, AND A HIGH RISK
MAY CONTINUE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AS BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS COMBINE WITH AN EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL. A MODERATE RISK IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
WILL BE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS AS A
SEA BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL DAILY, ALONG WITH DISPERSIONS IN THE FAIR TO
GOOD RANGE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NO FOG EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EACH MORNING THEREAFTER THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 79 58 83 / 10 20 0 30
SSI 60 73 62 75 / 10 20 0 20
JAX 58 79 61 82 / 20 30 0 30
SGJ 61 76 63 78 / 20 30 10 40
GNV 58 83 60 85 / 10 40 0 50
OCF 60 84 62 85 / 20 50 0 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ472-474.
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