867  
FXUS62 KJAX 191308  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
808 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS  
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WHILE A COLD FRONT  
MOVES SE ACROSS SE GA. THIS AFTERNOON, AS FRONT MOVES SE  
ACROSS NE FL...MAY SEE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED T-STORMS ALONG  
WITH SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY, DEW POINTS ONLY IN UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S AND LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL YIELD VERY LIMITED  
INSTABILITY... MINIMIZING SEVERE STORM THREAT DESPITE GOOD  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  
 
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POP/WEATHER, AND HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY, BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY]  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z FOR ALL  
TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR SGJ WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL 16Z.  
CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z. WINDS WILL  
BACK FROM THE WEST AND WEST NORTH WEST AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 21Z  
EXCEPT FOR SGJ, WHICH WILL SEE THE WIND SHIFT CLOSER TO 23Z. HAVE  
VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE MOST LIKELY RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL BE AT SGJ WHERE SHRA ARE IN PLACE AFTER 18Z AND AT  
GNV WITH TEMPO BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z FOR SHRA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS  
EXPECTED AT THE JAX TERMINALS AND SSI AFTER 14Z. SOME LLWS IS  
POSSIBLE AT SSI BETWEEN UNTIL AND 17Z. CHANCES FOR VCTS TOO LOW  
FOR INCLUSION AT GNV AT THIS TIME, SO DID NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS  
ISSUANCE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS WHILE 7 FOOT SEAS PERSIST THERE WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT  
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR  
SHORE WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS 15-20 KNOTS AND WAVES 4-6 FEET. HIGH  
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS WILL BRING ELEVATED NORTHWEST  
WINDS ON MONDAY OVER THE AREA WATERS. ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS IN  
PLACE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO  
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE  
WATERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS  
AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS IN THE  
NORTHEAST FLOW.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR NE FL  
BEACHES WITH A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SE GA BEACHES.  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 65 32 49 27 46 / 40 0 0 0 0  
SSI 68 37 50 34 47 / 60 0 0 0 0  
JAX 71 36 54 32 50 / 70 0 0 0 0  
SGJ 73 40 55 38 51 / 60 20 0 0 10  
GNV 71 36 55 30 51 / 70 10 0 0 0  
OCF 74 38 57 32 53 / 60 20 0 0 0  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM  
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-  
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO  
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20  
TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 
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