336
FXUS62 KJAX 090609
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TODAY WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW MIGRATES FROM ACROSS SE GA EARLY
THIS MORNING TOWARD THE NE GULF, THEN BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK SW STEERING FLOW
< 10 KTS WITH HIGH MOISTURE (PWATS NEARING 2.2 INCHES) WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY,
WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
RISK. THE INGREDIENTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN PLACE, BUT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AND NOT COMPLETELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HIGH MOISTURE, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND SE GA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS UNDER SW FLOW, WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
ACROSS NE FL EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 TOWARD THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
BOUNDARIES COVERAGE.
AS EVIDENT BY MORNING RADAR, WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SLOW
AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION. WITH MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY, INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT LIMITING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK, BUT, LOCALIZED
FLOODING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
OUR AREA. THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET
DOWNBURSTS OF 40-60 MPH WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHERE MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY CAN BUILD AND THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND PROVIDES ADDED
LIFT/CONVERGENCE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGER
LIFT SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL COAST. SW FLOW CONTINUES, SO
EARLY MORNING GULF COAST CONVECTION EDGING INLAND IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 'COOLER' TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EARLY ONSET CONVECTION FOR OUR
INLAND ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING
IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS SEA
BREEZES PUSH INLAND AND BOUNDARIES INTERACT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND STORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY BEFORE HEATING UP AGAIN
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
IT'LL BE A HOT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY MAX OUT AROUND 100-105 DEGREES, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF CONVECTION, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE
105 THIS WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL START A DOWNWARD
TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. RINSE-AND-REPEAT FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL STORMS POPPING UP EACH
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WITH W/NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND, PWATS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN WE'VE SEEN
RECENTLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
VCSH FOR SSI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BREAKING
OUT INLAND UNDER AN MID LEVEL LOW. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL
TERMINALS, MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
UNDER SSW WINDS < 8 KTS. STILL EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AT
SSI, CRG AND SGJ MID AFTERNOON, WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK STORM MOTION MAKING
CONVECTION SLOWLY DISSIPATE. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE ADDED AS NEEDED
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY FOR TS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINFALL RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA WILL BRING PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS,
SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND THU FOR NE FL BEACHES AND
LOW RISK FOR SE GA BEACHES AS EASTERLY SWELLS HAVE FALLEN COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE GREATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SE WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 73 92 73 / 60 40 60 20
SSI 88 77 90 77 / 50 30 50 20
JAX 92 74 93 75 / 50 30 60 10
SGJ 90 75 92 75 / 50 30 50 10
GNV 91 73 93 72 / 60 20 60 10
OCF 91 74 92 73 / 50 20 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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