681
FXUS62 KJAX 011543
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WIND CHILLS. ANOTHER COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS 15-20F
- FREEZE WARNING AREA WIDE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKELY AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. RH VALUES UNDER 30% AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
- MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH MONDAY. GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
UPDATE
THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND WINDS BASED ON TRENDS AND GUIDANCE. GIVEN THAT EXTREME COLD
CRITERIA IS NO LONGER BEING MET, CONTINUED WITH A COLD ADVISORY
UNTIL NOON, WHERE AT THAT TIME IT RISES TO ABOVE THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. NOTE THIS
MORNING, WE ISSUED AN LSR SUMMARY FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
YESTERDAY, AND WE ISSUED A COUPLE OF PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
(PNS) REGARDING THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTINUE THE EXTREME ARCTIC COLD ACROSS ALL OF NE FL/SE GA THIS
MORNING AND WHILE THE LAND BASED SNOWFALL THREAT HAS ENDED, THERE
STILL BE SOME MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH THIS MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WILL
KEEP THE EXTREME COLD WARNING/FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH SHOULD END BY SUNRISE AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO END THE WIND ADVISORY AROUND THAT TIME FRAME.
DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES TODAY STILL EXPECT RECORD COLD MAX TEMPS
THAT WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40F ACROSS SE GA AND LOWER
40S ACROSS NE FL.
TONIGHT: AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
RECORD COLD LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S AND HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS OVER INLAND AREAS AND MIDDLE 20S ALL THE WAY TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF NE
FL/SE GA LOCATIONS. DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECT WIND
CHILL VALUES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
HAVE POSTED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL NE FL/SE GA LOCATIONS AS
WELL. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NE FL MAY REACH EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA BELOW 15F, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
PLACE. THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE TEENS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION BY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING SLOWLY
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE 50S MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND
DESPITE MORE HIGHER CLOUDS FILLING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, TEMPS WILL
REBOUND EVEN FURTHER INTO THE 60S AS A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ACCORDINGLY AS WELL, THOUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE A COLD ONE WITH WIDESPREAD 20S AND LOW
30S EXPECTED AND AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION AS RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY PRIME
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT
MILDER, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. TUESDAY NIGHT'S LOW
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT TRICKIER AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM OUR
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THEREFORE SOME
AREAS OF NORTHEAST FL MAY SEE LOWER MIN TEMPS THAN THOSE OUT IN
INTERIOR GA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, LIKELY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY. OF COURSE THERE WILL BE MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT
INCLUDING TIMING OF THE FRONT, THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIRMASS AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT ACROSS
THE CWA. CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO STAY DRY AND COOL HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH A SECONDARY DRY FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. TEMPS THEREFORE LOOK TO ONLY
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDS WITH MAINLY SKC THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z, BEFORE NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, THEN SETTLING DOWN
TO AROUND 3-5 KNOTS INLAND AND AROUND 6-8 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES IN THE 00-12Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 40 TO 45 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WITH THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY, A PERIOD OF LOW WATER LEVELS IS
LIKELY AROUND LOW TIDE. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
MODERATE TO POSSIBLE HIGH RISK ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SOME
NORTHEAST SWELLS AFFECT THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW RH VALUES AREA WIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ON MONDAY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TODAY, THOUGH STILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VERY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, INCLUDING WIDESPREAD MINRH VALUES
UNDER 30%. DESPITE THE BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY,
DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE GOOD RANGE DUE TO LESS EFFICIENT MIXING.
MONDAY, THESE VALUES WILL GO UP SLIGHTLY UNDER BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
MIXING, AND SOME AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION WILL BE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AND RH MODERATE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD AND EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AREA WIDE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COMBINED IMPACT OF ALREADY SEASONABLY LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AND STRONGER WNW OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY COULD CREATE LOW MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER LEVELS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS CHALLENGED BY THE ARCTIC COLD AIR OUTBREAK ARE BELOW:
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1:
JAX 42/1900
CRG 44/1980
GNV 41/1909
AMG 42/1980
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 1:
JAX 24/1977
CRG 29/1977
GNV 25/1977
AMG 22/1977
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2:
JAX 23/1979
CRG 27/1980
GNV 25/1980
AMG 19/1951
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 41 20 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 41 26 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 43 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 43 25 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 44 21 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 45 20 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-
350-364.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-452-454-
470-472-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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