397
FXUS62 KJAX 030020
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
820 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY DENSE FOG INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
- WINDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
- EXPANSIVE HISTORIC DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR MOST AREAS
UPDATE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPDURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF
SE GA AND PORTIONS OF NE FL AS WINDS WEAKEN TO NEAR CALM. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, AND
50S ACROSS NE FL, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRESSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND ONSHORE WINDS BECOMING BREEZIER FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND THEN WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY WARM FROM OUT OF THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AROUND LATE WEEK
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING IN
FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BE MORE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
LOWER CIGS ARE LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT BY 06Z,
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER INLAND SITES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SOME PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AT JAX/VQQ/GNV.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHIFTING
TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BY 14Z/15Z.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND POSSIBLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SPEEDS
LIKELY REACHING CAUTION LEVELS AS WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LINGERING SHOWERS DEPART THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH
CAUTION LEVEL SPEEDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LONG PERIOD EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL BE SLOW TO FADE TODAY,
KEEPING A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE AT ALL AREA BEACHES. BREEZY NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SURF ON SUNDAY WILL CREATE A HIGHER
END MODERATE RISK, WITH A HIGH RISK POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL
BEACHES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP A HIGHER
END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE AT AREA BEACHES, WITH A HIGH RISK
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MIDWEEK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHEN.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSION ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY, CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH MINRH NEAR CRITICAL
FOR INLAND PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. ELEVATED MIXING
HEIGHTS BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NO FOG EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 48 75 49 81 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 54 72 60 76 / 20 0 0 0
JAX 52 76 53 82 / 20 0 0 0
SGJ 56 74 59 78 / 40 0 0 0
GNV 53 80 52 85 / 20 0 0 0
OCF 55 80 54 85 / 30 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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