803
FXUS62 KJAX 301120
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME DROUGHT FOR INLAND AREAS. PRACTICE FIRE SAFETY & CHECK FOR
LOCAL BURN BANS
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TUESDAY. TUESDAY
MORNING SOUTHEAST GA & SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. TUESDAY MIDDAY -
AFTERNOON: REMAINDER OF NE FLORIDA. MAIN STRONG STORM HAZARDS: GUSTY
40-60 MPH & ISOLATED TORNADOES
- INLAND FROST SOUTHEAST GA THURSDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CALM WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST.
SUNDAY, MAINLY CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AS A WARM
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PWATS
CLIMBING NEAR 1 INCH AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONSHORE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN IN THE LOWER 60S, ELSEWHERE WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S.
A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WATERS AND NEAR SUNRISE FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE HIGHER SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. STILL A CHANCE OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
NEEDED RAINFALL.
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE A SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FORM AND TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. LESS RAINFALL (GENERALLY <
0.50 INCHES)IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF WAYCROSS AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
EVENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGH SHEAR-LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
IMPRESSIVE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70 KTS AND A STRONG 40-50 KT 850
MB LOW LEVEL JET, BUT LIMITED CAPE/INSTABILITY WITH MU CAPE
GENERALLY 200-500 J/KG. THE MAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 50-70 MPH AND BRIEF, ISOLATED
TORNADOES. EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS, NON-CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 30-
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL WHERE HIGHER, BUT MEAGER, SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE AHEAD OF THE BROKEN SQUALL LINE, WHILE A MORE STRATIFORM
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS.
TEMPERATURES TREND GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
ACROSS MUCH AREAS EXCEPT NORTH OF WAYCROSS TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE 60S WILL PREVAIL UNDER CLOUD COVER AND RAINY CONDITIONS. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY NIGHT TRAILING
THE LIFTING WARM FRONT, THEN A 10-15 DEGREE COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
40S NORTH OF I-10 AND 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH INLAND FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS SE GA THURSDAY MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTH OF THE REGION.
OVERALL TRENDING WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WETTER PATTERN MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH APPROACHING AND STALLING FRONTAL SYSTEMS. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF. OPTED TO LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT FRONTS WILL BE
EDGING CLOSER AND POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR TO OVER THE LOCAL AREA,
WHICH WILL BRING MORE NEEDED RAINFALL. LATEST CLIMATE SITE RAINFALL
DEFICITS SINCE SEPT 1ST ARE 6-9 INCHES AT ALMA, JACKSONVILLE AND
CRAIG AIRFIELD TO 3-4 INCHES AT GAINESVILLE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS 12Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAKENING
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN BEGINS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A
LIFTING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TUESDAY NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MID-WEEK AS WINDS
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW TODAY, MODERATE MONDAY
NE FL MODERATE TODAY, HIGH MONDAY
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
EASTERLY WINDS. A FEW COASTAL SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT WITH HIGHER MINIMUM HUMIDITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
NEEDED RAINFALL TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL END TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT PRESSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY UNDER NORTH WINDS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...INLAND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY. NEED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, BUT
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY CAUSE WILDFIRES DUE TO DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 49 66 53 67 / 10 30 70 90
SSI 56 68 60 73 / 10 20 50 70
JAX 56 73 60 77 / 10 20 40 70
SGJ 61 75 65 78 / 10 20 30 60
GNV 56 78 62 78 / 10 20 30 70
OCF 58 79 63 78 / 10 20 20 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page