118
FXUS62 KJAX 090020
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
820 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT, THOUGH
WITH A LIKELY DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND BASIC
AREAL COVERAGE. HOWEVER, LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS FOR INLAND AREAS, GIVEN THE
HUMID AIRMASS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
IS ALSO A HINT OF A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
THAT HELPS SUPPORT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE RECENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DIMINISHED TREND IN THE CONVECTION (MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE) AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND
FV3, SO HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMUM OF SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MORE
LIKELY WEST OF I-95, PUSHING INLAND AS SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE. AMPLE
MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA'S SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THOSE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER
SUNSET BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY, CONDITIONS DRY OUT SLIGHTLY TO BRING
PWATS JUST UNDER 2" OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SOME OF
THE HIGHER VALUES HOVERING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. AFTERNOON RAIN AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE
INLAND. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO BE IN THE LOW 90S OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE ITS WAY WELL INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEK, CREATING THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WEST OF I-95.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
CURRENTLY, CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES SO MAY NEED
TO AMEND TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (AFTER
03Z), BUT TOO LOW CHANCE TO SHOW ANY PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS. A
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY SO HAVE ALREADY
PLACED IN VCSH/VCTS AFTER 16Z, AND SOME PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE ITS WAY WELL INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEK, CREATING THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WEST OF I-95.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH LONG-PERIOD
ONSHORE SWELL TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 91 73 92 / 40 80 30 60
SSI 77 89 76 90 / 20 50 30 40
JAX 74 92 74 93 / 30 70 20 60
SGJ 76 91 75 92 / 30 60 20 50
GNV 73 92 72 93 / 20 70 10 60
OCF 74 91 73 92 / 10 70 10 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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