626
FXUS62 KJAX 101841
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, MAINLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAK IN THE 103-108 DEGREE RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, MAINLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1022
MILLIBARS) CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND EXTENDING ITS AXIS
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, WITH TROUGHING PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. OTHERWISE,
TROUGHING WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE GULF, OR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AXIS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE PWATS WERE IN THE 2.1 -
2.4 INCH RANGE, WHILE VALUES NORTH OF I-10 WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 1.9 - 2.1 INCH RANGE. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERING TO A MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE FOSTERED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY ISOLATED THUS FAR OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS ALONG THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z HAVE
CLIMBED TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OUTSIDE OF AREAS IMPACTED
BY CONVECTION, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS
AND CLOSER TO 80 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS SHOULD MERGE AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE I-75 AND
I-95 CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH
OUTFLOWS THEN PROGRESSING NORTHWARD AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
"PULSE" AND BECOME BRIEFLY STRONG AT INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-55
MPH, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO RELATIVELY
SLOW STORM MOTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING COULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BACK TOWARDS
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING BY THE
MID-EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO THIN OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING SOME PREDAWN CONVECTION
ALONG THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE COASTS, BUT ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 70S AREA-
WIDE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS 2- 2.3") INTO THE AREA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE, THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
RIDGING WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO MOVE WELL INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON, WITH MERGERS WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
OCCURRING BETWEEN THE US-301 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
WITH THE ELEVATED MOISTURE ALOFT, SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS, MAYBE A FEW SEVERE STORMS,
COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 50 MPH RANGE ALONG BOUNDARY
MERGERS.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S ALONG INLAND LOCATIONS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HOVER JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 107F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK NEXT WEEK.
BY MONDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTH RESULTING IN
A RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES
ABOVE 2 INCHES PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, PWAT VALUES WILL
FALL TO SEASONABLE AROUND 1.75 INCHES. IN RESPONSE, EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO FALL SLIGHTLY WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO COOL
SLIGHTLY, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE MOST
PLACES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 70S WILL PERSIST.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BECOME ELEVATED RATHER THAN MODERATE
AS A RESULT OF THE PATTERN SHIFT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI THROUGH AROUND 22Z. PERIODS OF IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS,
WITH BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER STORMS NEAR VQQ AFTER 19Z. TEMPO GROUPS
WERE USED AT THESE TERMINALS, AS A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL THEN
SPREAD TO THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 20Z, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND IFR CONDITIONS
DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE SGJ TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND
23Z, BUT A ROUND OF EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME,
WITH BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGH AROUND 03Z
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS BY 04Z. PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE
NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN WELL TO THE NORTH OF
OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONSHORE WINDS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND BUILDING SEAS FORECAST TOWARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: DIMINISHED WINDS AND DROPPING SURF WILL TEND TO
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT RISK TOWARD THE MODERATE RANGE TODAY.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY, WITH
A LINGERING EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL AND ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
KEEPING A LOWER- END MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC
COAST SEA BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR
HIGHWAY 301. AS WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS DEVELOP, DISPERSIONS WILL
BE FAIR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, RH VALUES WILL SIT
AT GOOD LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
GULF AND TOWARDS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
FOG POTENTIAL: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS WILL OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS, WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG UNLIKELY.
HYDROLOGY
AS FAR AS COASTAL WATER LEVELS, WE EXPECT TIDAL WATER LEVELS TO
PEAK TO NEAR THE ACTION STAGE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE RECENT
ONSHORE FLOW BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE NEW MOON PHASE WHICH IS
FRIDAY, SEPT 11TH. MOSTLY NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
A BRIEF TIME INTO THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING IN THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL TODAY, ISOLATED POCKETS OF ABOUT 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS AN AREA FROM EASTERN MARION COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO AROUND BAKER COUNTY. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE
TEMPORARY FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN ANY POOR DRAINAGE OR URBANIZED
AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 73 92 73 92 / 50 40 20 50
SSI 77 90 77 90 / 40 50 20 50
JAX 75 92 74 92 / 60 60 20 70
SGJ 76 90 75 90 / 50 50 20 70
GNV 74 91 73 91 / 50 60 20 70
OCF 74 92 74 92 / 50 60 20 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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