635
FXUS62 KJAX 301442
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT & EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO 20-25 DEGREES EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL INLAND LIGHT FREEZE WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
POTENTIAL INLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1035
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHERN TEXAS.
THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS
OUR AREA YESTERDAY SOUTHWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FL AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGHING
PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION, WITH THE
BASE OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 165-KNOT JET STREAK AT 250 MILLIBARS
(ABOUT 35,000 FEET) LOCATED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WAS
GENERATING A SHIELD OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDINESS FOR LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT
JACKSONVILLE REVEALED BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BELOW 750
MILLIBARS (AROUND 8,000 FEET), WHICH WAS ADVECTING A SEASONABLY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION, WITH ONLY 0.25 INCHES OF
PWAT MEASURED BY THE 12Z RADIOSONDE. CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT 14Z IN THE 30S
FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FL, RANGING TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM AROUND 20 ALONG UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
ALTAMAHA / OCMULGEE RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOW AND MID
20S ELSEWHERE.
THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGHING WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION WELL EAST OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGH ALTITUDE
CLOUD SHIELD TO SLOWLY EXIT OUR AREA, WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND THE ONLY SLOWLY
DEPARTING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE
FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REMAINING IN
THE 45-50 RANGE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT EXPANDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY
LOOSEN OVERNIGHT, BUT ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO KEEP
WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION, BUT WILL DRIVE WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN TO THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS
BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL, WHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S COMBINED
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH SHOULD DRIVE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO BELOW THRESHOLDS (25 DEGREE WIND CHILL VALUES)
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE
IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, AND FREEZE WATCHES
WILL SOON BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. A FEW WIND SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA COULD EXPERIENCE A BRIEF HARD
FREEZE, WHERE LOWS WILL POSSIBLY FALL TO THE MID 20S.
SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF
MIDWEEK, SHIFTING TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
NORTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. COLD AND DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA, BUT CLEARER SKIES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AREA-WIDE, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL FL AND
ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING MIN RHS TO DIP
INTO LOWER 20S ACROSS SE GA, AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NE
FL. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE
SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE PRIMARILY ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS AS COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE NEAR 40. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR/AT FREEZING TEMPERATURES, PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.
THURSDAY, A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S AREA-WIDE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
BUILDS TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
STEADILY IMPROVE AS MIN RHS RISE INTO THE 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE
AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SE CONUS ON
FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING, BRINGING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SE GA. BY
SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS INTO THE AREA, WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. MOST ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY, WHILE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DWINDLE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEAR OF THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, REACHING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SATURDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL TO MUCH ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY BY 13Z. SURFACE SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS
TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
KEEPING CAUTION CONDITIONS IN PLACE. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHEAST FL MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER INTO THE REGION. THE DRY AIR WILL BRING MIN RH
VALUES INTO THE 20S AREA-WIDE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE DRIEST
AIR WILL BE FOUND OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH RH VALUES
IN THE LOWER 20S, WHILE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL HAVE RH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS WON'T BE AS ELEVATED AS MONDAY, BUT
WILL STILL BRING A LIGHT BREEZE TODAY, REMAINING BELOW ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER CRITERIA. FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON
STEADILY IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD FROST OVER INLAND
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AS A LIGHT FREEZE DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 50 27 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 51 32 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 54 28 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 55 33 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 55 29 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 57 29 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-137-140-220-225-
232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ452-
454-470-472-474.
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