863
FXUS62 KJAX 161757
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER,
HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY AND AT NE FL BEACHES ON
FRIDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
- MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT
AREA: ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY SOUTHWARD
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, IT MAY BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
INLAND, AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS
RIVER BASIN. TONIGHT, LOWS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL DIP
INTO THE MID 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW,
LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF ABOUT 1018-1022 MB WILL BE OVER VA
AND NC ON FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALOFT,
A PROMINENT MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH,
OUR LOCAL WIND FIELD WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WITH PWATS
OF BELOW 1 INCH (ABOUT THE 20TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY)
TO CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER, WITH PLEASANT HIGHS NEAR
AVERAGE WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
AND CHILLY FOR SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND,
BUT LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. OUR FORECAST LOWS NOT AS COLD SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE VEERING/WARM ADVECTION FLOW AND SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH
A MEAN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WE ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT ON
MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND THIS ONE
WILL BE EVEN DRIER AS IT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED.
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN OVER THE AREA AGAIN WED-THU.
PRETTY DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH PWATS
AGAIN AT ONLY THE 25TH PERCENTILE. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED NBM GUIDANCE
DEWPOINTS MON- TUE DUE TO ABNORMAL DRY AIR.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WE COULD NEAR THE RECORD HIGH AT
GAINESVILLE ON TUESDAY WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
NORTHEAST FL. WITH A DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. PRE-DAWN, MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT VQQ,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
ELEVATED SEAS OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY
MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA BEACHES FRIDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK A THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH DOES
NOT HELP GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY AREAS, ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS
FROM SUWANNEE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA. MIN RH VALUES
WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA, WITH SOME RECOVERY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT,
THEN ONLY TO BOTTOM OUT AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE 30S.
SOME PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH PATCHY EARLY MORNING SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
MINOR FLOODING DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE IS LIKELY. CONFIDENCE
IN MINOR FLOODING IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TIMING EXTENSION OF THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS TO COVER FRIDAY'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 55 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 65 76 63 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 61 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 68 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 60 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ038-132-
137-138-325-333-633.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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