032
FXUS62 KJAX 221315
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- LOCALLY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
RISK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
- WIDESPREAD INLAND FREEZES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT
- SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION
UPDATE
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT A DIMINISHING
TREND IN THE CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEARLY
ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY. HAD INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING, BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OUT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE HIGHS, BUT SOME ADJUSTMENT TO COASTAL TEMPS WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THEM ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S WHEREAS INLAND REACHES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE FOG TONIGHT WITH BULK OF THE FOG, BECOME LOCAL TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS GRADUALLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE
(1026 MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE, A
SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WERE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WITH BOUNDARIES SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS, TENNESSEE, AND
OHIO VALLEYS. ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION, WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WAS TRAVERSING THE DEEP SOUTH. A 140-KNOT
JET STREAK SITUATED AT 250 MILLIBARS (AROUND 35,000 FEET) WAS
POSITIONED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE REVEALED A VERY DRY AIR
MASS BELOW 500 MILLIBARS (AROUND 20,000 FEET), WITH PWATS ACROSS OUR
REGION GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 0.5 - 0.75 INCH RANGE. WHILE AREA
RADARS ARE DETECTING RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA, IT IS ALL EVAPORATING
ON ITS WAY DOWNWARD THROUGH THAT DEEP DRY LAYER BELOW 20,000 FEET
(VIRGA). THICK HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AS OF 07Z.
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK ALOFT POSITIONED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE EXITING OUR REGION BY LATE THIS
MORNING. THICK HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PREVENT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, AND A SUBSIDENT AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE, AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE WILL
KEEP A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95. COOL SHELF WATERS IN THE 50S AND THIS BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP
COASTAL HIGHS IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FAIR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THIS EVENING, AND PWATS INCREASING TO THE
0.75 - 1 INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY IN
THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE
LOW AND MID 50S FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE REGION RETREATS AS A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SE US GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING OVER INTERIOR GA, BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THE FRONT
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL FL SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS AIRMASS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH HOWEVER DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ZONAL FLOW, MAINLY NORTH OF I-10. A NORTH-
SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 80 SOUTH. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE
SW US ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP TRIGGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF. THIS LOW WILL TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND LIFT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FL NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT RETURNING WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. INLAND FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW AND DEVELOPING A ROBUST WARM SECTOR
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE
COLDER SURFACE TEMPS AND DRAINAGE FLOW CONFINED WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ZERO FOR
THIS EVENT. SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW ON SUNDAY
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA. A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS FILTERS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SETTLES IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL MULTIPLE FREEZE EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH QUICKLY DROP TO BELOW
SEASONABLE FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 14Z. OVERCAST MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL THIN
OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z FRIDAY, WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE IFR CONDITIONS BY 10Z AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV, WHILE CONFIDENCE IN FOG WAS LOWER AT
THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL TERMINALS, WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WERE
INDICATED TOWARDS 10Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10
KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY AT SGJ WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
SURFACE WINDS AT SSI WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 17Z. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE AFTER 13Z, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 16Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
TOWARDS 19Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER COASTAL GEORGIA WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE, COASTAL TROUGHING SITUATED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING SPEEDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD, CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM
DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD, LIFTING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WHILE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL BEACHES - MODERATE
THROUGH FRIDAY, HIGH ON SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
LIGHT SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR
DISPERSIONS WITH AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY
DESPITE ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSIONS ON SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY INLAND. FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 44 72 49 / 0 10 10 10
SSI 66 49 68 50 / 10 10 0 20
JAX 73 47 77 54 / 10 10 0 10
SGJ 70 54 74 56 / 10 10 0 10
GNV 77 50 80 55 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 77 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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