348
FXUS62 KJAX 082330
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
730 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS, ROUGH SURF, ELEVATED TIDES AND BEACH EROSION. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ST JOHNS RIVER
- HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN GULF
COAST. REINVIGORATED ONSHORE WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS/TORNADOES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS CONTINUE, INCLUDING COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR UPSTREAM ST. JOHNS RIVER. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS FOR AREA COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL INTO LATE EVENING.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL FL AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL START TO WORK BACK NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
IS NOTED AT 1 PM WITH 400-800 ML CAPE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL. AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST FL
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO ISENTROPIC PROCESSES, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST FL WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
REACH UPWARDS OF 1-3 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE
RADAR IMAGERY AND THE GUIDANCE, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH
FOR SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS BEST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO A
LIGHT TO AN OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, ELEVATED SURF, AND ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
BOTH AT THE COAST AND THE ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WATER
LEVELS UPWARDS OF 2 FT MHHW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS,
SOLIDLY IN THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALONG WITH FLOODING CHANCES
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS RENEW THE SURF ZONE RISK AND CONTINUE TIDAL
FLOODING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AS HURRICANE NAMED ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY. AS
IT MOVES NORTH, IT WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FL AS A WARM FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT, COMBINED WITH OUTER BANDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A STORMY DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NE FL. WHILE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE, IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LOCALLY DUE TO THE WARM FRONT.
DUE TO THE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS, THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM DUE TO THE WARM FRONT.
ON SATURDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH, WARM AND MORE MOIST
AIR WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO REGION. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT POTENTIAL
WILL STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE,
ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUNDAY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
MVFR OR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AND MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO WILL REMAIN ONGOING. SOME TEMPO
GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IN ANY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE BANDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY AT THIS TIME. WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ONSHORE FLOW AND HURRICANE ISAIAS OVER THE GULF
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO ROTATE MORE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS. THESE WILL BE REFINED AS WE
GET CLOSER, AND LIKELY INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE. THESE
FACTORS, ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND LOWER CEILINGS, WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION.
MARINE
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CAUTION
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY. A FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS STARTING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN DUE TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND AND LINGERING WIND-SEA
STATE TODAY WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY/WINDY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS MONDAY
A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, AS HURRICANE
ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
PORTIONS OF THE ST MARYS, SATILLA, AND TRIBUTARIES TO THE ST JOHNS
RIVER HAVE RISEN INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IN RESPONSE TO
WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL OVER THE PORTIONS OF THOSE BASINS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAY PROLONG OR LEAD TO OTHER LOCAL RIVER RISES. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO LOWER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST
JOHNS RIVER. TIDES WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL
PEAK TIDES WITH THE NEW MOON, YIELDING MINOR TO LOW-END MODERATE
FLOODING ALONG AT THE BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT'S HIGH
TIDE.
DUE TO WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER BASIN
OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER, TIDAL LEVELS WILL LIKELY REACH MODERATE
LEVELS AGAIN WITH THE HIGH TIDE, UP TO NEAR 2.25 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY
DRY GROUND. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRESHWATER RUNOFF AND ONGOING 'REVERSE FLOW' WITH
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER. MAY BE ABLE TO
LET THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING EXPIRE AT 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE WATER LEVELS AT HIGH TIDE TO BE AT LEAST AT MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITHIN THE ST JOHNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 75 69 80 / 10 60 90 100
SSI 74 82 74 83 / 40 80 100 90
JAX 71 82 72 86 / 60 90 90 90
SGJ 72 83 75 87 / 80 90 80 90
GNV 69 83 72 87 / 80 80 70 80
OCF 70 86 74 88 / 80 70 40 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ038-137-138-140-233-
237-240-333-340-433-533-633.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ125-132-
137-225-325-633.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-
474.
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