161
FXUS62 KJAX 020633
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY MAINLY AFTERNOON & EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY: MARION
COUNTY, FRI-WEEKEND: INCREASING CHANCES
- MODERATE RISK AT NE FL & SE GA BEACHES TODAY
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR SATILLA RIVER
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
BREEZY ENE FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH THE AREA BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF THE COAST OF N FL. ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY WITH DRY
AIR (PWATS 0.8-1.5 IN) AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY SHIFT
ONSHORE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT DISSIPATE QUICKLY. THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WELL INLAND MERGING WITH THE GULF SEA BREEZE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THIS MERGER MAINLY IN MARION COUNTY. ANY
CONVECTION FADES QUICKLY AND SHIFTS INTO THE GULF BY THE EVENING.
AROUND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING IN THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW-MID 90S INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW = PATCHY FOG???
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
PREVAILING FLOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED ABOUT TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY BY
SATURDAY WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WITH
THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PWAT VALUES ON SATURDAY WILL RISE TO BE ABOUT
2.5 INCHES WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME STORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR AREAS
NEARER TO THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S FOR AREAS
ALONG THE SHORELINE AND NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE UP TO OVER 100 WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGHER STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
- BUILDING HEAT FOR SOUTHEAST GA
STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY, INCREASING STORM
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. PWATS GENERALLY OVER 2.0" INCHES AND INTERACTING SEA BREEZES
WILL PROMPT HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND THREATS WITH ANY STRONG
STORM DEVELOPMENTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
90S THROUGH TUESDAY, EVEN AT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST DUE
TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 100-108 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. CALM
WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW MVFR FOG POTENTIAL AT VQQ FROM
07-11Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS WHICH MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND TO SGJ IN THE MORNING HOURS. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO PASS NEAR GNV IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MARINE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE TROUGH LINGERS BUT WEAKENS INTO
FRIDAY WITH A DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME SHIFTING MORNING
SHOWERS INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A TRANSITION TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
AND HIGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS AND NIGHTLY WIND SURGES NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS:
WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INTERIOR SE GEORGIA TODAY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
SHOWER AND T'STORM CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
DRIER AIR AND SUFFICIENT MIXING, MINRH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-
35% RANGE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWER AND
T'STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURN TO COVER MORE OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND STRONG, ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HYDROLOGY
SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 95 71 96 73 / 0 0 10 0
SSI 89 78 90 79 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 90 74 92 75 / 0 10 30 0
SGJ 89 76 90 76 / 20 10 30 0
GNV 94 72 94 74 / 20 0 30 10
OCF 93 74 93 75 / 30 0 40 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page