812
FXUS62 KJAX 120459
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1259 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AND PWATS THAT HAVE DROPPED BELOW 2
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUE LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES WITH
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZE FRONTS THAT WILL MEET CLOSE TO
THE US 301/I-75 CORRIDORS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH STORM
ACTIVITY THEN DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE US-17/ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE LATER START TO CONVECTION WILL ALLOW
FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND AROUND
90F AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
104-108F RANGE, LIKELY REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ONE MORE DAY. CONVECTION OVER INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD
START TO FADE AFTER SUNSET AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR, THEN LIKELY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT, WITH FAIR SKIES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. AS HEIGHTS
BUILD ALOFT, THE AREA RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SEA BREEZE
PATTERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZES BECOME NUMEROUS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER.
WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE SEA
BREEZE MERGER WILL BE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE AND RIDGING
OVERHEAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONABLE IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AREA-WIDE. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND RISING TEMPERATURES, PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO
THE 100-109 F RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
RIDGING SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
WEEKEND CONTINUING THE SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE PATTERN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING, FORMING
ALONG THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS THEY SHIFT INLAND EACH
DAY. FLOW SHIFTS TO NNE FOR THE WEEKEND SHIFTING THE MERGER TO THE
US 301/I-75 CORRIDORS. ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AREA-WIDE. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
RISING INTO THE 100-109 F AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORIES EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED WEST OF GNV AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS AT
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND PAST SSI/SGJ/CRG WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL CHANCES, SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THESE TERMINALS, WHILE BEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT INLAND TAF SITES AND WILL POST PROB30
GROUPS AT JAX/VQQ/GNV, GENERALLY IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME, JUST
BEFORE SUNSET WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POTENTIAL. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY, THEN BUILD SOUTH OF THE
WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS THIS
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SURF/BREAKERS 2-3 FT AND ONSHORE/SE FLOW CONTINUING TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 73 94 73 / 30 30 50 20
SSI 89 78 91 78 / 30 20 30 30
JAX 94 76 95 76 / 40 20 60 30
SGJ 92 76 93 77 / 50 30 60 30
GNV 95 74 94 75 / 60 30 60 10
OCF 94 74 93 75 / 60 40 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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