261
FXUS62 KJAX 201947
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO AREA FROM THE GULF. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE
NORTH NORTHEAST. AT THE COAST, THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MILDER
AIR INTO AREA FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE COASTAL CLOUD COVER TOWARD DAWN,
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. FURTHER INLAND,
ANOTHER FREEZE IS EXPECTED.
LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS SE GA, LOWER 30S INLAND NE FL, TO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S COASTAL NE FL.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
A RARE AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER EVENT REMAINS ON
TRACK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENTLY
INCREASING THE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS, WITH MODELS ALSO COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
ON IMPACTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW (40-65% CHANCE OF 1" ACCUMULATION) FROM THE LINE
OF STATENVILLE TO WAYCROSS TO DARIEN GA NORTHWARD. FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THERE BUT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10, THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-60%)
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN 0.1" AND A LOW
(20-30%) CHANCE OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 0.25". LATEST 13Z
NBM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES FROM
THE OVERNIGHT RUNS, WITH A LITTLE DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
STARKE/HIGH SPRINGS FL FOR 30-40% CHANCE OF 0.1" ICE
ACCUMULATION. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON, IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA,
WEST OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND NORTH OF (NOT INCLUDING)
MARION COUNTY.
DEFINITION OF LOCAL CRITERIA FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING:
"ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF SNOW PER EVENT, AND/OR ANY
ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SLEET THAT IMPACTS TRANSPORTATION,
COMMERCE, OR POWER."
ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO POWER LINES,
UTILITIES, TREES, SOME ROOFS AND CAUSE VERY DANGEROUS
TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACCUMULATIONS AS RISE ABOVE
0.10" OR EVEN 0.25". IN ADDITION TO THE MEDIUM THREAT OF SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY MASK ICY ROAD
CONDITIONS BENEATH, DRIVING IN THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IT IS ENCOURAGED TO AVOID TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE,
AND IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE, CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFOREHAND
AND KEEP AN EMERGENCY KIT IN THE CAR.
IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE RISK OF ICE AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND
MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF FREEZING CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, WITH BITTER WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AREA-WIDE AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME THAT
WE WILL RECEIVE ANYTHING OTHER THAN A COLD RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY LINE UP WELL WITH ABOVE-FREEZING
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN COLD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS BOTH
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BOTH MORNINGS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE)
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THIS TIME, SO THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR ANY WINTRY
MIX.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY, MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL, RISING TO ABOVE 60
AREA-WIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS,
AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
IT WILL BE MORE MILD, HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE LOWS HIT FREEZING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NE FL COAST, WHERE STRATUS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS COULD MAKE IT ASHORE AND BRING RESTRICTIONS TO KSGJ
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE FLOW WILL MOVE IT INLAND TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING
TO RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGIN TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 412 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
BELOW ARE THE RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
CLIMATE SITES ARE JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX), CRAIG AIRFIELD, FL (CRG),
ALMA, GA (AMG), AND GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV).
DATE | SITE | RECORD LOW MAX | RECORD LOW
------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------
1/21 | JAX | 30 (1985) | 7 (1985)
CRG | 30 (1985) | 9 (1985)
AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011)
GNV | 29 (1985) | 10 (1985)
------------------------------------------
1/22 | JAX | 41 (2022) | 16 (1985)
CRG | 47 (1985) | 18 (1985)
AMG | 40 (2022) | 16 (1985)
GNV | 46 (2022) | 17 (1985)
------------------------------------------
1/23 | JAX | 45 (1960) | 25 (2011)
CRG | 48 (2003) | 28 (2011)
AMG | 42 (2016) | 20 (2011)
GNV | 48 (1987) | 23 (1960)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 28 44 27 37 / 0 50 90 10
SSI 35 47 31 42 / 10 40 100 30
JAX 33 50 31 44 / 10 50 100 50
SGJ 40 55 36 50 / 20 60 100 70
GNV 34 51 32 44 / 10 50 100 40
OCF 35 55 34 47 / 10 50 100 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-035-120-220-225-322-422-425-522.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-237-
322-422-425-522.
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-237-
322-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ152>154-165-166-264-350-364.
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
AMZ454-474.
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