336  
FXUS62 KJAX 090609  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
209 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...  
   
NEAR TERM  
 
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TODAY WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS  
THE AREA AS A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW MIGRATES FROM ACROSS SE GA EARLY  
THIS MORNING TOWARD THE NE GULF, THEN BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK SW STEERING FLOW  
< 10 KTS WITH HIGH MOISTURE (PWATS NEARING 2.2 INCHES) WILL  
CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY,  
WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM  
RISK. THE INGREDIENTS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN PLACE, BUT  
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS A LITTLE TRICKIER AND NOT COMPLETELY  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  
 
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND HIGH MOISTURE, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN  
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND SE GA THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS UNDER SW FLOW, WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION  
ACROSS NE FL EAST OF HIGHWAY 301 TOWARD THE COAST IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND  
BOUNDARIES COVERAGE.  
 
AS EVIDENT BY MORNING RADAR, WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SLOW  
AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION. WITH MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF  
SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY, INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED  
SOMEWHAT LIMITING STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK, BUT, LOCALIZED  
FLOODING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR  
OUR AREA. THE BETTER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET  
DOWNBURSTS OF 40-60 MPH WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 TOWARD THE  
ATLANTIC COAST WHERE MORE DIURNAL INSTABILITY CAN BUILD AND THE  
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND PROVIDES ADDED  
LIFT/CONVERGENCE.  
 
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRONGER  
LIFT SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL COAST. SW FLOW CONTINUES, SO  
EARLY MORNING GULF COAST CONVECTION EDGING INLAND IS EXPECTED ONCE  
AGAIN.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 'COOLER' TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EARLY ONSET CONVECTION FOR OUR  
INLAND ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING  
IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS SEA  
BREEZES PUSH INLAND AND BOUNDARIES INTERACT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD  
COVER AND STORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS  
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY BEFORE HEATING UP AGAIN  
FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
IT'LL BE A HOT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER  
90S WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. HEAT INDICES WILL  
GENERALLY MAX OUT AROUND 100-105 DEGREES, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON  
TIMING OF CONVECTION, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES ABOVE  
105 THIS WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL START A DOWNWARD  
TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. RINSE-AND-REPEAT FORECAST  
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL STORMS POPPING UP EACH  
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WITH W/NW FLOW THIS WEEKEND, PWATS AND  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN WE'VE SEEN  
RECENTLY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
VCSH FOR SSI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BREAKING  
OUT INLAND UNDER AN MID LEVEL LOW. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL  
TERMINALS, MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING  
UNDER SSW WINDS < 8 KTS. STILL EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AT  
SSI, CRG AND SGJ MID AFTERNOON, WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS MID  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH WEAK STORM MOTION MAKING  
CONVECTION SLOWLY DISSIPATE. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE ADDED AS NEEDED  
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER TODAY FOR TS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY  
RAINFALL RESTRICTIONS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SURFACE  
TROUGH ACROSS GEORGIA WILL BRING PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS,  
SHIFTING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES  
INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE  
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE  
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND THU FOR NE FL BEACHES AND  
LOW RISK FOR SE GA BEACHES AS EASTERLY SWELLS HAVE FALLEN COMPARED  
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE GREATER IN THE  
AFTERNOON AS SE WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZE.  
 
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AMG 90 73 92 73 / 60 40 60 20  
SSI 88 77 90 77 / 50 30 50 20  
JAX 92 74 93 75 / 50 30 60 10  
SGJ 90 75 92 75 / 50 30 50 10  
GNV 91 73 93 72 / 60 20 60 10  
OCF 91 74 92 73 / 50 20 60 10  
 
 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
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