495  
FXUS62 KJAX 021119  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
719 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA  
TODAY AS A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA  
FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT POSSESSING PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 2.4 INCHES  
RESULTING IN STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST LEADING TO STRONGER  
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE MERGER NEAR  
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL BECOME DISPERSED DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING INTO SOUTHEAST  
GEORGIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND  
LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE  
LOWER 70S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE  
COASTLINE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY)  
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK WILL PINCH THE  
POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER FLORIDA AND  
ADJACENT GULF/ATLC WATERS BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, THE  
REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DECAY THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL ENTER INTO SE GA BY INDEPENDENCE DAY  
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. THE NARRATIVE IS DIFFERENT  
ACROSS NE FL AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES WHERE RICH DEEP MOISTURE,  
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW  
WILL FUEL NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.  
 
A BOUNDARY-PARALLEL STEERING FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
TRAINING CONVECTION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT'S OVER THOSE  
REPEATED AREAS OF RAINFALL WHERE FLOOD RISK WILL BE ELEVATED WITH  
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH RAIN RATES POSSIBLE (5"+ PER HR). THE RISK WILL  
BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE BOUNDARY WILL COME TO A STALL NEAR  
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THOUGH CONVECTION MAY LINGER A BIT AFTER  
SUNSET, IT SHOULD FADE AWAY EACH NIGHT.  
 
GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER  
ACROSS NE FL EACH DAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, IN  
THE UPPER 80S. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE IN SE  
GA WHERE DRIER AIR AND SUNNIER SKIES PREVAIL ESPECIALLY BY  
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE  
FOCUS BECOMING THE EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF A LOW  
PRESSURE, WHICH MAY BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE. THERE MAY BE A  
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT SURFACE  
TROUGH WHICH IS WHY SUCH A CHALLENGE EXISTS IN DETERMINING WHERE  
THAT DOMINANT SURFACE LOW WILL BE. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN MORE  
CONSISTENCY IN DEVELOPING THE LOW OFF OUR COAST AND LIFTING IT  
NORTHWARD AFTER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. A POSITION NEAR THE COAST  
COULD SEND SEVERAL ROUNDS OFF "WRAP-AROUND" MOISTURE INTO THE  
FIRST COAST. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE THIS  
UNFOLDS, THERE COULD BE SOME SOGGY AREAS THAT MAY BECOME MORE AT  
RISK OF FLOODING (JUST A CONSIDERATION). NONETHELESS, THE NHC HAS  
MAINTAINED A 40% CHANCE OF POTENTIAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR  
REGION. NEXT WEEK, THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR NEAR-  
CLIMO RAIN CHANCES AND HOTTER-THAN- TYPICAL TEMPERATURES, IN THE  
MID 90S, AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 17Z FOR ALL  
TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF SEA  
BREEZE AS IT SHIFTS INLAND TODAY AND MERGES WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA  
BREEZE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18-23Z. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE  
ANTICIPATED WITH STRONGER STORMS AND WILL BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS TO  
MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND  
STORMS COME TO AN END BY 03Z.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA  
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CREATE PREVAILING  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH EVENING WIND SURGES BRINGING  
SPEEDS UP TO CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. A FRONT WILL  
STALL NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY  
WEEKEND, WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONITOR THE  
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL  
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO  
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FOR AREA BEACHES TODAY AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH  
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FL ON  
INDEPENDENCE DAY. JUICY, TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL  
FUEL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY STORMS  
WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES (OCALA NF).  
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20 MPH FAVORED ACROSS  
NE FL. STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ELEVATE DISPERSIONS THIS  
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION WILL BE MORE LIMITED THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD  
COVER RESULTING IN SHALLOW MIXING.  
 
ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS: PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH MORNING BUT  
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 89 72 90 72 / 60 40 50 20  
SSI 88 76 88 76 / 70 50 70 30  
JAX 91 73 91 73 / 80 50 80 30  
SGJ 91 74 88 73 / 80 50 80 40  
GNV 89 72 88 70 / 70 40 80 30  
OCF 88 74 86 73 / 70 40 80 40  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page