717
FXUS62 KJAX 200530
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1230 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTED EARLY THURSDAY: INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & I-75 CORRIDOR
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY
- EXTENDED DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BE VERY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS. SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & THE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF RETREATS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL GENERALLY KEEP FOG AT BAY UNTIL IT CLEARS BY THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST. BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL
BE ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNRISE. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES BY MID-MORNING, ANOTHER DRY AND
WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST
TO THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO ENE IN THE WAKE OF THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MORNING FOG, WHICH MAY BE BECOME DENSE,
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE CHANCES FOR FOG WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF SEA
BREEZE MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON TO ISOLATED THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING.
FOG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SATURDAY MORNING BUT IT'S LIKELY TO
BRING HIGH CHANCES INLAND AS MOISTURE WILL BE USHERED IN FROM
THE GULF AND ADVECT INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE MORNING FOG OVER LAND AREAS, THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS MOVING OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY SEA FOG
AND LOW STRATUS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EACH DAY ONCE FOG LIFTS TO STRATUS AND SCATTERS OUT, MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH BOUTS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY AND WARM TO THE
LOW/MID 80S AREAWIDE. WARMER LOWS IN THE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND AND LOW 60S AT THE COAST WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, WHICH IS LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT
DYNAMIC SUPPORT, WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME
SPRINKLES BUT MEANINGFUL AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. DESPITE A THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ONLY A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
FOG CONCERNS, BOTH LAND AND SEA, ARE LIKELY TO BE HOISTED UP ON
THE WEATHER MARQUEE HEADLINE NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE
DAYS OF SEA FOG AS A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS COLD WILL PASS
THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A
SPLASH OF RAIN TO THE MOST SEVERELY DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS IN
OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A HIGH
ALTITUDE CIRRUS SHIELD POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH SUNRISE
LIMITING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION AT THE TAF SITES. BEST
CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE AT GNV AND VQQ. HAVE TEMPOS IN FOR
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO ENE AND
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 18Z. BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN WHILE
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. A
WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS BOUNDARY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY TUESDAY, WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY THEN
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW END MODERATE DUE TO
THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN WINDS TO ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY, WARM WEATHER AND RISING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY CONTINUES AMID
THE ONGOING DROUGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUR MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE MORNING FOG, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE, AND
POOR AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS DUE TO MINIMAL SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY WILL TREND EASTERLY BY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
MAY OFFER BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN ITS WAKE.
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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