449
FXUS62 KJAX 122358
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
658 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SEVERAL FREEZE EVENTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT: FREEZE
WARNING & FROST ADVISORY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST FL, WEST OF
JACKSONVILLE.
- FRIDAY MORNING HARD FREEZE INLAND & COASTAL LIGHT FREEZE
LIKELY, DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS OF INLAND FREEZES FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT MON NIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON...COASTAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND HAS INCREASED THE N TO NE WINDS TO 15-25G30-35 MPH FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES AND I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CU CLOUD DECK WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPS CAPPED IN THE 50S. FURTHER INLAND, THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH N TO NE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15G20-25 MPH RANGE, WITH
TEMPS REACHING AROUND 50F ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND MID/UPPER 50S FOR
INLAND NE FL.
TONIGHT...COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION NUDGES INTO
INLAND SE GA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MORE
COMPLEX FORECAST THAN USUAL AS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LIGHT N-NE WINDS
SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT FREEZE THERE WITH LOWS AROUND 30F,
WITH A BORDERLINE FROST ADVISORY ALONG THE FREEZE WARNING EDGES FOR
COASTAL SE GA AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF THE JAX
INTO THE LIVE OAK/LAKE CITY AREA WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL TO SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ABUNDANT STRATO-CU CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FROM THE BRUNSWICK TO JAX TO
GAINESVILLE AREA AND SE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE N TO NE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THIS AREA AT 5-10 MPH, AND 10-20 MPH
FOR THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST, WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER THE NE FL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SPRINKLES REACHING THE FLAGLER/ST. JOHNS COASTLINES TOWARDS MORNING.
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON OVERALL TEMP FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS, SO THE FROST/FREEZE
EVENT CONFIDENCE FOR SE GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR IS LOWER THAN USUAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH EXITS NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM A MIXTURE OF
FLAT CUMULUS AND SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH OVER NE FL DECREASING TO 3-5 MPH OVER SE
GA. HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW 60S OVER SE GA AND INTO
THE MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WITH UPPER 60S OVER MARION,
PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND BRING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG
THE FIRST COAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FL BY DAWN. OUR LOWS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER SE GA, MID TO UPPER 40S
ALONG THE SE GA COAST AND WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND LOWS 50S
SOUTH OF THE JAX BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIVES INTO THE GULF
COAST, THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SCATTERED SHOWERS
NORTHWARD INTO NE FL AND SE GA AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE OVERALL LIGHT, UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
ORGANIZING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST WITH NO THREAT FOR
T'STORMS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 60S OVER
SE GA AND THE LOW/MID 60S OVER NE FL. WINDS 10-15 MPH FROM THE WEST
WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH A LAST
BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SHIFTING ACROSS NE FL FROM THE GULF COAST
AHEAD OF IT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO SE GA NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THURSDAY, A STRONG DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY WITH LAST OF
SHOWERS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP A HARD FREEZE OVER INLAND
AREAS AS LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S OVER SE GA AND MID 20S OVER
INLAND NE FL WITH A LIGHT FREEZE APPEARING MORE LIKELY OVER DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE TO THE JAX BEACHES WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOW 30S. IN ADDITION, BRISK WINDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FOR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS WIND CHILLS FALL TO THE
LOW/MID 20S OVER NE FL AND UPPER TEENS OVER SE GA.
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY OVER THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA, ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING OVER INLAND SE GA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NE FL WEST OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST TO THE GULF COAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE OR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY AND WINDS NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FREEZE
DOWNTOWN AND POTENTIAL HARD FREEZE OVER INLAND SE GA SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK OVER THE NE FL TERMINALS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND DETERIORATE THROUGH 03-05Z AS WINDS DECREASE
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, BREEZY NNE WINDS 10-15G20
KNOTS AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER AT SGJ INTO 12-14Z. ON AND OFF
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGES OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD AT
GNV/CRG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT SSI.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS AS SHARP COASTAL TROUGHING PERSISTS,
CREATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
THEN WEAKEN ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FREQUENT GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE TUESDAY, NE FL MODERATE TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
-LOW RH VALUES OVER INLAND SE GA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
-AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS TUESDAY
-PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND WEDNESDAY
-HIGH DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
-LOW RH VALUES ACROSS AREA FRIDAY
-AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN, BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST, BUT DIMINISHING TO 8-12 MPH GUSTING TO
15 MPH OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE
FAIR RANGE DUE TO LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST NORTH OF I-10. WEAK SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
CREATE LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CREATE MINRH
VALUES 22-27 PERCENT OVER INLAND GEORGIA NORTHWEST OF US84.
WEDNESDAY, A LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THEN A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BACK OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST, THEN OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 301 OVER INLAND SE GA TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT INLAND FREEZE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 31 60 39 60 / 0 0 10 30
SSI 42 60 45 60 / 0 0 20 40
JAX 41 64 46 64 / 0 0 20 40
SGJ 48 65 51 64 / 0 0 40 50
GNV 42 67 48 65 / 0 0 20 30
OCF 45 68 50 65 / 0 0 30 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ021-023-
024-120-220-322-422-522.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ153-165.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454-472-474.
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