815
FXUS62 KJAX 102349
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
749 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE. ISOLATED
DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS:
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY FOR AREA WATERS TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY
AM. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE TUESDAY
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF THE I- 10 CORRIDOR.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF I-95 OVER
NORTHEAST FL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DILUTED AND WEAKENED NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS SR-16 THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME EVEN MORE ILL DEFINED
THIS EVENING. THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL THEN MIGRATE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PRESSES INTO NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, FORCING FROM MID LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIRMASS FEATURING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.70 TO 1.80 INCHES, THE WEAKENED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE NEAR I 95 WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY COMMENCED BETWEEN I-75 AND I-95 AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN I-95 AND
THE FIRST COAST BEACHES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PONTE VEDRA INTO
FLAGLER COUNTY, WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES TOWARD THE ICWW. CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500
J/KG ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF SR 16 TOWARD THE FLAGLER COAST. WITH
LOCALIZED BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE, SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, INCLUDING LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY ENHANCED
VEERING WIND PROFILE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE.
FOR THIS EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN, WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER THE ADJACENT
NORTHEAST FLORIDA MARITIME WATERS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES.
OVERNIGHT, SOME SLIGHT CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY MONDAY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY WITH STRONGER DEVELOPMENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEARER TO THE
COAST ALONG AREAS OF CONVERGENCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ON INTO TUESDAY AS THE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ON
MONDAY WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS REACHING UP TO ABOUT 10-15 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS
AND WITH GUSTS OF ABOUT 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL NOTICEABLY
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS DROPPING FROM OUT OF
THE MID TO UPPER 80S DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL DIP FROM OUT OF THE LOWER 60S DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S WITH MIN TEMPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE
COAST REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY,
BUILDING INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND FORMING INLAND AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. A SECONDARY DRY FRONT WILL PRESS IN FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING DRIER WEATHER AND
CLEARING SKIES. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS TO
BECOME MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS DROPPING FROM ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS TO BE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS (VCSH) LEFTOVER THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS. HI-RES MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON
LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 06Z WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND EXPECT LIFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS DEVELOPING AT GNV/VQQ/JAX/CRG FOR THE 08-12Z TIME
FRAME, WHILE LIKELY ONLY LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS AT SSI/SGJ. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
13-15Z TIME FRAME, THEN VFR CONDS DEVELOPING AREA-WIDE WITH WEST
WINDS AROUND 8-9 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE 18-24Z TIME FRAME AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
POTENTIAL TSRA ACTIVITY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THAT MAY PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SURF
HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 2 FEET. THE RISK WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF LOW TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR SANDBARS. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RISK EXPECTED TUESDAY AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY DUE
TO STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING SURF CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS MONDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH LATE THIS MORNING PUSHING THE
GULF SEABREEZE TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING TO
US-17 BY MID AFTERNOON. ENERGY ALOFT, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZES/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK WINDS AND LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL CREATE LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BREEZY WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS PIN THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR I-95 WHERE STORMS WILL FOCUS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT REMAINING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
STALLING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
WAYCROSS AND SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MERGING ATLANTIC AND GULF
SEABREEZES OVER NORTHEAST FL. DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS
WILL BE HIGH THURSDAY FROM HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER INLAND
AREAS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 89 63 79 / 20 40 40 30
SSI 70 84 68 76 / 30 60 50 30
JAX 68 90 67 79 / 30 60 60 50
SGJ 70 89 69 81 / 20 40 50 50
GNV 69 92 68 85 / 10 30 50 50
OCF 69 92 68 86 / 10 20 30 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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