216
FXUS62 KJAX 180644
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED STRONG AND MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
- BUILDING SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PEAK
HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
- VALDOSTA RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE. PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA
RADARS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- STRONG AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
- LATE NIGHT MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, MAINLY INLAND
SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY
- SEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOON: HEAT INDEX 100-107 DEGREES.
ANOTHER DAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY CONDUIT GULF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER EARLY START TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE PINNED ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. HEAT WILL BUILD MORE TODAY WHICH WILL LEVERAGE A STRONGER
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
AND THEN PROCEED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS ALONG THE COAST MAY PULSE TO STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS, ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO COLLIDE.
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND SE GA AS A "MASKED" GULF BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
AS MENTIONED THE HEAT WILL BUILD TODAY BUT DECENT MIXING SHOULD MIX
NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO KEEP PEAK HEAT INDEX JUST A BIT
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IT WILL STILL BE
SEASONABLY HOT WITH HEAT INDEX IN THE 102-107 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE
HIGH END OF THAT RANGE FAVORED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THE CLIMO 90TH PERCENTILE, SO ACTUAL
HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ARE VERY LIKELY TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS.
TONIGHT, ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ARTHUR. THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL GRAZE OUR INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD.
HIGH RESOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY BRINGING A DECAYING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO INLAND SE GA ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THEN FADE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AT 850MB, AROUND 40-50 KTS, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, POSSIBLY AT SEVERE LEVELS FOR IN "BOWING"
SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLUSTER. THOUGH PROBS ARE LOW, CAN'T
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED QUICK-SPIN UP TORNADO,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SE GA. THERE'S STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED GIVEN THE
DEGRADED SURFACE INSTABILITY BUT IT COULD MAINTAIN AND EXTEND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO DAYBREAK FRIDAY, MAINLY FROM I-10
NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS FRIDAY
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS SATURDAY
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SE TOWARDS THE AREA, TRAILING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR, BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS (PWATS) IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY). THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT LIFT
FROM THE INCOMING FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER AREA WILL CREATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND T'STORMS OVER SE GA. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FURTHER
SOUTH AND WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE GULF SEABREEZE A HEAD
START TOWARDS THE NE FL COAST, SPURRING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS T'STORMS. DESPITE A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR,
WATER LOADING FROM A NEAR SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
T'STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND OUTFLOW/STORM
MERGERS CAPABLE OF WET DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH. OTHER
T'STORM HAZARDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ALSO EXPECTED.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER NE FL INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL OVER SE GA DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S. MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE 100-104 FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL SOUTH OF I-10.
FRIDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKS TO THE FL/GA BORDER THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS. LOWS
WILL BE MUGGY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO NE FL AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION INTO THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS.
THIS WILL PROMOTE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS MORE
OVER NE FL AS LIFT FROM THE FRONT, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINE TO CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS
FROM MID TO LATE MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH DIMINISHED COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SE GA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO WNW WITH SKIES STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COMPARED TO FRIDAY,
BUT GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL EXPECTED FOR NE FL SATURDAY WITH SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS PUSHING ACTIVITY ESE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S OVER NE FL AND AROUND 90 OVER SE GA.
SATURDAY NIGHT, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTIALLY CLEAR WITH T'STORMS
ENDING BY 10PM AND ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S OVER SE GA AND THE
MID 70S OVER NE FL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM INLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS NEXT WEEK
- DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTERNOON AND EVENING T'STORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS SE GA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NE FL AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH THE GULF SEABREEZE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SE
GA AND NE FL COAST, KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS IN THE
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. BUT, THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TO EAST OF I-95.
MONDAY, DRIER AIR WILL LOWER PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES AND ALONG
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DUE TO RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GULF
AND FL PENINSULA WILL WIDELY ISOLATED T'STORM ACTIVITY TO NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, LIKELY PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 104-108 VERY
CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
TUESDAY, A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WITH WSW FLOW AND AN
UPTICK IN MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS. BUT, THE
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AS VALUES CLIMB TO 106-110 AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
WNW FLOW, BUT ALSO HIGHS DECREASING BACK TO THE LOW 90S WHICH MAY
CURVE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACTLY WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS, SO KEEPING SCATTERED CHANCES FOR T'STORMS AT THIS
TIME.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS
15-20 KTS AND VFR CLOUD COVER AT LOCAL TAF SITES. A DEVELOPING AREA
OF MVFR LOW STRATUS INLAND THIS MORNING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
AIRFIELDS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRIGGER EARLY SHOWERS AGAIN
TODAY WITH INCREASING TSRA CHANCES AT ALL COASTAL AIRFIELDS.
INHERITED PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONVECTION WERE LARGELY MAINTAINED,
HOWEVER, INCREASED CONFIDENCE AT KSGJ TO 50-60% CHANCE WITH A TEMPO
FOR TSRA AND IFR IMPACTS AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. CONVECTION WILL
PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OTHERWISE FADE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WINDOW,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON,
POSSIBLY NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK FRONT
TRAILING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL STALL ACROSS THE
GEORGIA'S COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS IT
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND LIKELY
STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A GENERAL LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND LIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURF REMAINS ONLY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE
IN OFFSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS T'STORMS TODAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALLOW THE GULF SEABREEZE TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE PINNED ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST. T'STORMS WILL INCLUDE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL SINK TOWARDS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL OR CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF T'STORMS.
FAVORABLE TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. GOOD
LEVEL DISPERSIONS EXPECTED DURING EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE CLOUDS LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS WHILE TRANSPORT WINDS
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT TODAY AND ALONG WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102-106 NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL. HIGHS WILL DECREASE TO THE LOW 90S FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER
RAINFALL MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE PATCHY LATE-NIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING
FOG.
EQUIPMENT
THE WSR-88D RADAR LOCATED NEAR THE MOODY AFB NEAR VALDOSTA IS
OFFLINE DUE TECHNICAL PROBLEMS. TECHNICIANS ARE AWAITING
CRITICAL PARTS TO RESTORE FUNCTIONALITY. DURING THE OUTAGE
PLEASE UTILIZE OTHER AREA RADARS...KJAX, KTLH, OR KJGX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 75 85 73 / 70 60 90 40
SSI 93 80 91 77 / 70 30 70 40
JAX 96 79 92 76 / 50 20 60 40
SGJ 96 78 93 77 / 60 20 50 20
GNV 95 79 92 75 / 20 10 50 30
OCF 94 79 91 77 / 20 10 30 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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