558
FXUS62 KJAX 131105
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
705 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
..AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT & HUMIDITY CONTINUES AREA-WIDE. FOR TODAY, EXTREME
HEAT WARNING FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND HEAT. DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEK
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES &
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
- DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH TUES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
LEFT OVER DEBRIS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MOIST
GROUND, PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM EARLY THIS MORNING.
SWELTERING HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PREVAILING WEST TO
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW KEEPING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HELD TO ABOUT
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GA. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL COMBINE WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 106 TO 111 IN THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ABOUT 111-114 IN THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING. ONE AREA
THAT MAY NARROWLY ESCAPE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA FROM ALMA GA NORTHWARD WHERE FAVORED DAYTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING LOWERS DEWPOINTS TO THE LOWER 70S.
THE CONVECTION TODAY WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE LESS CONVECTION TODAY
THAN WEDNESDAY, AND MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
AREA WITH POPS OF ABOUT 30-55 PERCENT, WITH SOME SMALL AREAS OF
ABOUT 60 PERCENT OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL. FROM HIGHWAY 84 NORTHWARD
IN SOUTHEAST GA, WILL ADVERTISED MORE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. A
FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE AGAIN REACHING UPWARDS OF
ABOUT 3000 J/JG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE NEARING 1000. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE CONVECTION IS THE SUPPRESSION AFFECTS OF THE RIDGE
ALOFT TO OUR WEST AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED
THIS EVENING, BUT IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG
- HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EACH DAY. EXTREME HEAT
WATCH IN PLACE ALONG COASTAL SE GA FRIDAY
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A
TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A BIT WEAKER WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE ATLANTIC BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND A BIT PAST THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE GULF BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE BREEZES MERGE NEAR AND EAST OF US-301. BY SATURDAY, THE
TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WITH THE FRONT
SINKING NEAR THE FL/GA STATE LINE BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT, HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED OVER SE GA SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S, CLOSE TO 100F FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BOTH DAYS, BUT AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME
THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES SIT AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS. ANOTHER
EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL SE GA AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY RISE TO 112F TO 114F FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, WITH
HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON EVENING, WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG
THE COLD FRONT OVER SE GA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SUNDAY AND OUT OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND SIT NORTH OF THE AREA HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT LIFTS FROM THE AREA, WITH LOWER COVERAGE BY MONDAY. CHANCES
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT NEARS SE GA ON TUESDAY AND
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AS
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE WARMEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS 5-10 KTS DEVELOP AFTER
14Z. FOR COASTAL SITES, WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AFTER 19Z AS
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND. GENERALLY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
BUT NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE/CHANCE AS WHAT OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, WILL STICK TO PROB30 MVFR TSRA FROM ABOUT 19Z TO 24Z
WITH FURTHER UPDATES TO REFINE THIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING VQQ WHERE VSBYS MAY FALL TO NEAR 4SM BETWEEN
08 AND 11Z.
MARINE
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE SEA BREEZE
SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SOUTH EVENING WIND SURGES THAT MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE SPEEDS TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, AND SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS AND LITTLE IF ANY EAST-
SOUTHEAST SWELL ENERGY WILL KEEP SURF HEIGHTS NEAR OR BELOW 2 FEET
AT AREA BEACHES. THUS, GENERALLY LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONLY HEIGHTENED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE AROUND PIERS
AND JETTIES AND ALSO AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE, WHICH FOR TODAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 3 PM TO 5 PM. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH LOW SURF HEIGHTS SO THE LOW RISK OF
RIPS MAY CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
- HEAT HEADLINES IN EFFECT
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND
LOWER TO MID 90S AT THE COAST TODAY. HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SE GA AS PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 106-112. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY LIKELY BE NEEDED,
THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES SIT AT
OR ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE FL/GA LINE SUNDAY. STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE I-10
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THU-SAT. ALSO
RECORD WARM MINIMUMS POSSIBLE AT GNV THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS:
THURSDAY, AUGUST 13TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 99/2023
KAMG: 100/9999
KCRG: 96/2023
FRIDAY AUGUST 14TH:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 97/2023
KAMG: 101/2023
KCRG: 98/2023
SATURDAY AUGUST 15TH:
KJAX: 99/1956
KGNV: 100/1918
KAMG: 99/1995
KCRG: 97/9999
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 96 76 97 76 / 20 10 40 20
SSI 96 80 95 80 / 10 10 40 20
JAX 96 76 96 77 / 30 10 50 10
SGJ 94 77 94 77 / 30 10 30 10
GNV 95 75 96 75 / 50 20 60 20
OCF 94 75 96 75 / 50 20 50 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GAZ153-154-165-166.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ153-154-165-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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