339  
FXUS62 KJAX 091855  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2022  
 
...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS NORTH OF I-10 THIS  
EVENING...   
..BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
DIURNAL AIRMASS AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AMID A  
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE  
OFFSHORE. BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES HAVE BEGUN TO  
PUSH INLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE BETWEEN I-75 AND US 301  
BETWEEN 6-9PM THIS EVENING. PER THE LATEST GOES PRECIPITABLE  
WATER IMAGERY, A NARROW RIBBON OF DRY AIR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF  
MODIFIED SAHARAN AIR IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL  
AND HAS STUNTED CONVECTION THERE. THIS RIBBON WILL CONTINUE TO  
DRIFT NORTH AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS IT DOES SO.  
CONVERSELY, STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO COMBAT THE DRY AIR WILL HAVE  
ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. DEEPER MOISTURE  
EXISTS ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THAT IS WHERE THE  
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SEA BREEZES MERGE THIS  
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW  
WINDS (40-50 MPH), BLINDING DOWNPOURS, NUISANCE FLOODING, AND  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
TONIGHT, REMNANT OUTFLOWS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND  
TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE ACTIVITY FADES  
COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.  
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED GROUND-  
FOG ACROSS INLAND SE GA.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
 
 
WEDNESDAY, DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE CLOSER TO  
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD  
INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY, A DRIER AIRMASS (SAHARAN  
AIR LAYER; SAL) WILL LIFT UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LIMITING  
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH OF I-10. SUFFICIENT  
DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOMEX AND IS  
PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE PORTIONS OF NE FL NORTH OF I-10 AS WELL  
AS SE GA. THE FLOW WILL TREND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAVOR A  
QUICK INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE GOMEX SEA BREEZE WHILE THE  
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES IN A BIT SLOWER. THE NET RESULT WILL BE  
A SEA BREEZE MERGER BETWEEN US 301 AND I-95. HIGHEST THREAT WITH  
CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG DOWNBURSTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE  
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION WILL FADE  
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
THURSDAY, AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE INCOMING  
TROUGH DIGS INTO GA, WITH PREVAILING FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.  
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH  
THE DAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION  
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER, WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-95  
CORRIDOR. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG  
CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY ST JOHNS COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.  
CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS BUT  
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WESTWARD SHIFTING OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF  
DEEP RIDGING AND DEEPER MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.  
HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARD THE MID 90S AREAWIDE (INCLUDING THE  
BEACHES) BY THURSDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. PEAK HEAT INDEX  
READINGS WILL FALL BETWEEN 102-107 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE  
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS AND BROAD TROUGHING ENGULFS THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD. THE INITIAL DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ATTENDANT  
COLD FRONT INTO SE GA FRIDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN FL BY  
SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING  
NORTH AND DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN PROLONGED PERIOD  
OF ACTIVE CONVECTION AREAWIDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE POST-  
FRONTAL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND DIMINISH  
CONVECTIVE THREATS. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE INTERACTION  
BETWEEN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SEA BREEZE MAY SUPPORT A STRONG,  
PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE, THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED  
FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO  
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HEIGHT FALLS, CLOUD COVER,  
AND DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL MUTE LOCAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS  
CAPPED IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS  
HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. GNV AND VQQ HAVE  
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A STORM THIS  
AFTERNOON, INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE  
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS FROM THE SE  
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT GNV WHERE WINDS WILL BE  
VARIABLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET, ENDING AT ALL  
TERMINALS BY 03Z. VQQ COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING,  
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY EDGE TOWARD THE  
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN OFFSHORE FLOW  
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM  
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO THE GA WATERS  
BY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE  
NORTHEASTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE  
WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WINDS TURN  
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NIGHTLY WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED AS  
THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS. A PERIOD OF BREEZY EAST NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SINKS  
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL, ONSHORE SWELL ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA  
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWERING RISK IS EXPECTED AS FLOW  
TURNS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 72 93 72 93 72 / 40 50 30 50 20  
SSI 78 90 78 92 77 / 20 20 10 30 30  
JAX 73 93 74 94 73 / 20 40 20 60 20  
SGJ 76 91 75 93 76 / 10 20 10 30 20  
GNV 73 93 73 94 72 / 30 40 20 40 10  
OCF 74 93 74 94 74 / 30 30 20 40 10  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 
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