856
FXUS62 KJAX 032324
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
724 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS, WITH BREAKERS UP TO AROUND 8 FEET
TODAY. RIP CURRENTS RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THIS WEEKEND
- DRIER THIS WEEK, INCREASED TSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ELEVATED AND BREEZY WINDS TODAY
DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD MAINTAINING A TIGHT
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH CURRENT GOES SATELLITE PWAT ESTIMATES IN THE 0.5-1.5
INCH RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING TODAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FOR INLAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO BREEZY NORTHEAST
FLOW, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW-MID
80S FURTHER INLAND AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 50S TO MID 60S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WITH A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL CARRY OVER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS RISING FROM OUT OF THE LOWER TO
MID 80S ON THURSDAY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS ON
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND
AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL AREAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ROUGH SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL BEACHES, THOUGH THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE ON A
LOWERING TREND OVERALL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.
- GRADUAL WARM-UP FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
WITH A RETURN TO THE MORE STANDARD PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH MAX TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
MARINE INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AFTER 01Z WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST. NE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN PERSISTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
- LOW MIN RH INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON
ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL SUPPORT AREAS
OF VERY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS. MORE EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS
ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION, WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO WEAKER
WINDS.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN TODAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEAST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND SUPPORT
GOOD TO HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR MASS, RECENT RAINFALL AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 70 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 64 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 71 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 61 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 63 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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