700  
FXUS62 KJAX 090030  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
830 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023  
 
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STORMS HAVING LARGELY SUBSIDED FOR  
THE EVENING. NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023  
 
DRIER AIR AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED ANTICIPATED  
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE  
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM  
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10, MAINLY  
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH  
MIDNIGHT.  
 
MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE LOW  
TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 60S. COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS IN  
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY REMAIN IN THE  
LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023  
 
SPC CURRENTLY HAS NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER  
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL BEGIN  
FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE,  
LEADING TO STORMS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT SOME MAY DEVELOP  
TOWARDS HWY-301 IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG  
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. TEMPERATURE HIGHS  
SHOULD ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW 90S OVER INLAND AREAS,  
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A BIT LOWER TEMPERATURE HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S.  
 
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND DRIFT  
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE LOWS WILL BE  
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS, WHILE COASTAL AREAS  
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
SATURDAY...WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE  
TO SHIFT FURTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COLLIDE WITH  
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE HWY-301, TRIGGERING A CORRIDOR OF  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER STORM MOTION WILL YIELD INCREASING  
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR, LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ADDITION TO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. TEMPERATURE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE  
IN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, THE SEABREEZE WILL BRING  
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS FROM THE COAST TOWARDS US-301 WITH  
VALUES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
STORM ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND DRIFT TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AFTER  
SUNDOWN SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DRIFT  
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURE LOWS FOR INLAND AREAS WILL  
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S, COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR THE  
LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023  
 
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY DEVELOPING MOIST  
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DOMINANT GULF SEA  
BREEZE AND THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BEING PINNED TO THE COAST. SEA  
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON  
INTO EVENING. NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH  
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA BY WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR AND  
SUBSIDENCE ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD THE HOTTEST DAYS SO FAR  
THIS YEAR WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE MID 90S AND HEAT  
INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023  
 
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT JAX METRO SITES THIS EVENING BEFORE  
DISPERSING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH  
CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER NE FL  
AND AFFECTING FL SITES BY AROUND 17-20Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR  
THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF  
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ABOUT FROM OUT OF THE SW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY  
FOR ALL SITES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO AN  
EASTERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DAILY  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER THIS  
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.  
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE  
AREA BEACHES. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES  
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 68 90 67 91 / 30 30 10 30  
SSI 72 85 72 84 / 30 40 20 30  
JAX 70 90 69 87 / 20 70 30 40  
SGJ 71 88 71 85 / 20 80 50 40  
GNV 70 92 68 90 / 10 70 30 50  
OCF 70 91 71 90 / 10 70 30 50  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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