272
FXUS62 KJAX 121815
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
115 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS OUR REGION. INCREASING WILDFIRE
DANGER EXISTS THROUGHOUT OUR AREA
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED TSTORMS AND WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN & SUN EVENING.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG & NORTH OF I-10.
WIDESPREAD 1 - 2 AMOUNTS, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 3 4 POSSIBLE
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO BE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL.
COOL MARINE AIR WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS IN SE GA, WHILE THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION AND SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL FL REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS CLEARING SKIES AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT MORE.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER SE GA
LOCATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP LOCATIONS IN NE FL
RELATIVELY WARMER, WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH
50S ALONG THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND LINGERING MOISTURE, LOCATIONS ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
SPEEDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE DUE TO COLD SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE IN THE 50S.
COASTAL HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
FAIR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, RANGING TO THE LOW AND
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS
ON FRIDAY EVENING, WITH SOME INCREASE IN THIN CIRRUS EXPECTED FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO
THE LOW AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE. A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP
COASTAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
A POTENT TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT, ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, EMERGING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY EVENING, WITH CIRRUS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THICKENING FROM WEST TO EAST DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS STORM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FILTERED SUNSHINE AND A LINGERING DRY AIR
MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS, WHILE AN ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, ALTHOUGH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THICKENING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
POTENT TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING, ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THIS FEATURE
THEN PROGRESSING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES,
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY ON MONDAY
MORNING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN
STRENGTHENING AS IT ACCELERATES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS STORM
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, WITH STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO SURGE TO THE 1.5 - 1.75 INCH
RANGE. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING, CREATING STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA. AFTER A FEW MORNING SHOWERS, BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD
COVER AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE COOL SHELF WATERS
POTENTIALLY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE FOR COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA.
A LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AT 850 MILLIBARS
(AROUND 5,000 FEET) WILL ARRIVE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THIS FEATURE
THEN TRAVERSING OUR REGION ON SUNDAY EVENING. ML CAPE VALUES WILL
RISE TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THESE INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A FEW STRONG STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 45-55 MPH, BUT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
MAY BE LIMITED BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS RAINFALL OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY WILL FADE ON SUNDAY EVENING, BUT A FEW ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LOWS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER TROUGHING CROSSING OUR AREA ON MONDAY COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ML CAPE VALUES RISING TO THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST UNTIL THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER
ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S DESPITE SOME WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.,
AND RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GULF BY MIDWEEK DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ON TUESDAY DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
WHILE INLAND HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS THEN
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH INLAND HIGHS SOARING INTO
THE LOWER 80S, WHILE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE
70S. LOWS NEXT WEEK WILL MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S INLAND, WITH LOW TO MID 50S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS
AROUND 12-15 KNOTS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AFTER 00Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING VARIABLE UNDER 5 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDING
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A
A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
MOVING ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AS WELL AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD
BACK DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY MID
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AS EASTERLY SWELLS
PERSIST WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 11-13 SECONDS PRODUCING SURF/BREAKERS
INTO THE 3-4 FT RANGE AT LOCAL BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO BREEZY ONSHORE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
- AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
- FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
- FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE, SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS TO
CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH
VALUES POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
OUR AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY. STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS, BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS, AND ELEVATED
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CREATE HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ON SUNDAY
THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH
VALUES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEFORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR ACTIVE OR ONGOING WILDFIRES OR PRESCRIBED BURNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 38 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 47 60 49 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 44 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 50 68 52 71 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 46 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 48 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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