049
FXUS62 KJAX 181447
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
947 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
- WIDESPREAD FROST FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA EARLY SAT MORNING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
THE FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
OFFSHORE IS HELPING LIFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE BRUNSWICK AREA AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AND MERGE WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TO
THE GA/SC COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT
SHIFTS ENE FROM SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO GA/CAROLINA COAST.
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER NE FL SOUTH OF I-10 AND
EAST OF I-75. THERE'S A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE GA, BUT INSTABILITY IS
OVERALL WEAK AND ANY STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH MAIN IMPACTS
BEING EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAINLY IN CLOUD. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
UP TO 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND NE FL AREAS SOUTH OF I-10
WHERE SOME BREAK IN THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR
WITH LIGHTER WINDS 5-10 MPH OVER SE GA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND SE GA NW OF ALMA AND ALONG THE SE GA
COAST TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH
LOW/MID 70S OVER THE NE FL COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COASTAL TROUGHING SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA WATERS THAT WAS GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TRAVERSING PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR IN OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, STRONG LOW PRESSURE (983 MILLIBARS) MOVING EASTWARD FROM
NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AND WESTERN OF THE GULF, WITH DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS OUR REGION. OTHERWISE, A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM
WAS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE PLAINS STATES
AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WERE GRADUALLY
INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEEPENS, WITH
VALUES GENERALLY JUST BELOW 1 INCH AT INLAND LOCATIONS AND JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, OR CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
TROUGH. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER REMAINS THICKER FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING
FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 09Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT
AROUND 60 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
STATES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT. THIS
DIGGING TROUGH WILL LIFT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
EVENING, WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THEN FILLING AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON FRIDAY. A 100-KNOT JET STREAK AT 250
MILLIBARS (AROUND 25,000 FEET) DOWNSTREAM OF THE DIGGING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 120 KNOTS AS IT REACHES THE CAROLINA COAST BY
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAK
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NEAR THE GULF'S LOOP
CURRENT SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS
EMANATING FROM THIS CONVECTION OVERSPREADING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ADVECTS A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE, FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5 - 1.75
INCHES FROM THE EASTERN GULF ACROSS OUR AREA.
COASTAL TROUGHING OVER OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH, BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR. BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER COULD DEVELOP
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SOUTHERLY
BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH LESS FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THICKENING CLOUD COVER, WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LESS SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR TO CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA,
DESPITE INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS OVER COOL SHELF WATERS MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 70-75 RANGE FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL.
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AL AND GA
TONIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AT 850 MILLIBARS (AROUND
5,000 FEET) WILL TRAVERSE THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW
EMBEDDED, MOSTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE TO NO SURFACE-BASED CAPE
AVAILABLE, WE DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME STRONG, BUT ANY
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GA COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST GA WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-10 IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL LIKELY ONLY END
UP IN THE ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE, AS COVERAGE
REMAINS SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, LEAVING BEHIND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY CROSS THE
ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE/ALAPAHA RIVERS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY,
WITH SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
BEFORE SUNRISE. LOWS WILL POSSIBLY FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, WITH
LOW AND MID 60S PREVAILING ELSEWHERE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH DRY AND COOL
AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PUSHING OFF TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC BY THE BACK
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND SE GA WHERE
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHILE NE FL WILL
FEEL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WITH THE DRY AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA, CLOUDY SKIES WILL STEADILY BECOME CLEAR BY
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. CLEARER SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS
OVER SE GA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WILL AGAIN BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE AND PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS OVER NE FL WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH THE MOST
SOUTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT AND
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SIMILAR
PATTERN IN TEMPERATURES AS FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA AND 70S ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY FROST
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER
INLAND SE GA, 40S ACROSS INLAND NE FL, AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS, WITH SCATTERED CHANCES OF SHOWERS PRIMARILY CONFINED OVER
THE OUTER WATERS ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE START OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 19Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CRG, SGJ, AND SSI
THROUGH AROUND 16Z. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM
THE WEST AFTER 19Z, WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES
INDICATED AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-02Z, WHILE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS WAS USED AT SSI DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
AT SGJ AND GNV HAS WANED, SO VICINITY COVERAGE WAS USED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 02Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IMPACTS TO EACH TERMINAL WAS TOO LOW TO
INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. LOWER
STRATUS CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER
02Z FRIDAY, BEGINNING INITIALLY WITH SSI AND THEN SPREADING TO THE
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS AFTER 04Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. SPEEDS AT 2,000 -
3,000 FEET SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO 35-45 KNOTS AFTER 22Z.
MARINE
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, MOVING NORTH OF THE GEORGIA WATERS
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR
LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING, WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OFFSHORE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY DURING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WITH THIS FEATURE
WEDGING DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD AS ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP SHOWERS
OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SURGE, WITH ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH TUESDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS ONLY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE FRIDAY
NE FL MODERATE FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA,
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND THE COAST...
LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
COAST...
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
HIGHER CHANCES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW DISPERSIONS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA, AND ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND
COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL SEE MIN
RHS VALUES DIP TO THE UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY AND THEN THE LOWER 30S
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, PUSHING AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS LOWER DISPERSIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN TO EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. A
LIGHT FREEZE AND PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 58 65 33 / 70 70 10 0
SSI 67 60 69 43 / 50 50 10 0
JAX 75 62 74 40 / 40 40 0 0
SGJ 74 65 76 49 / 30 30 0 0
GNV 78 63 75 42 / 40 30 0 0
OCF 80 64 76 43 / 30 30 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ472-474.
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