237
FXUS62 KJAX 181212
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
812 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 05Z FRIDAY AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT VQQ TOWARDS 05Z, WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT GNV
TOWARDS 09Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INDICATE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT JAX AND SGJ. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY 16Z, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND AROUND 10
KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT
SGJ.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES AGAIN TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A
LINGERING DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH
PWATS HAVE STARTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES, WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE STILL REMAINING ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER
COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ELSEWHERE RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT AND ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NE FL NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S OVER INLAND AREAS, UPPER 80S ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND MIDDLE 80S AT ATLANTIC BEACHFRONT
LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE INCREASING FOG POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
AT LEAST AREAS OF FOG OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NE FL ALONG THE I-10 AND US 301 CORRIDORS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF JAX TOWARDS GNV/LAKE CITY/LIVE OAK
AREAS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL (10-30%) FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
AROUND SUNRISE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
A SIMILAR SETUP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIALLY
CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR THANKS
TO A LINGERING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER GA AND PWATS AROUND
1.4-1.5 INCHES. OFFSHORE TROUGHING STARTS TO ORGANIZE FRIDAY WHICH
WILL PICK UP WINDS A BIT PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL
AREAS IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE, THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
REMAINING WEAK OVER THE INTERIOR WILL TAPER WINDS A BIT THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW COMPARED TO THURSDAY
WILL DROP HIGH TEMPS A BIT THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO, THOUGH LOW
90S WILL STILL BE EXPECTED GREATER THAN ABOUT 40-50 MILES AWAY
FROM THE COAST. MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY FROM ABOUT SAINT
AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS DECREASE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
SOUTH AND EAST.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF JUST A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO NORTH
FL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH STILL EXPECTING A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO START SETTING UP AND THEREFORE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE BUT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTS
ON SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
FL ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH CHANCES DO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GA AS WELL AS FAR WEST AS ABOUT THE
GAINESVILLE AREA IN NE FL SATURDAY. COASTAL HAZARDS BUILD
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY PEAK BEYOND
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD - HOWEVER, SATURDAY WILL STILL FEATURE
MODERATE TO BORDERLINE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, SURF UP TO 3-5 FEET,
AND COASTAL/RIVER LEVELS EXCEEDING 1 FT ABOVE MHHW WHICH WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MANY OF THE USUAL LOW LYING
TROUBLE AREAS. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND SOMEWHAT,
WITH LESS AREAS INLAND REACHING 90+ AND MID TO UPPER 80S BEING
MORE COMMON FURTHER EAST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FURTHEST
NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE DRIER RIDGING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S
SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE NORTHEASTERLY EVENT LOOKS TO PEAK ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY ALSO PEAK MARINE AND COASTAL HAZARDS
SUCH AS COASTAL FLOODING AND SURF/RIP CURRENTS AS WELL. MOSTLY
SHOWERY PRECIP CHANCES WITH SOME ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN "HALF" OF THE REGION AND
ESPECIALLY COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH STARTS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT TOWARDS MORE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION BY THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL HELP TO
BREAK THE NORTHEASTERLY EVENT AND ALSO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, BRINGING IN HIGHER LAYER
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE RETURN OF SLIGHTLY MORE "NORMAL" DIURNAL
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL START NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM HUDSON
BAY, CANADA ON FRIDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFTING OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AS IT WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
COASTAL TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS, BUILDING SEAS,
AND AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS TODAY AS
SURF/BREAKERS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 2 FEET IN THE ONSHORE FLOW, THEN A
MORE SOLID MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY AS NE FLOW STARTS TO BUILD AND
SURF/BREAKERS CREEP INTO THE 2-4 FT RANGE. LIKELY HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND IN THE STRONGER NE FLOW AND SURF/BREAKERS
BUILDS INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 65 91 65 / 20 20 20 0
SSI 87 70 85 72 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 90 68 89 70 / 10 10 10 0
SGJ 87 71 86 73 / 20 10 20 10
GNV 92 67 92 68 / 20 10 10 0
OCF 91 67 91 70 / 30 10 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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