525
FXUS62 KJAX 052358
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THURSDAY. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES EXPECTED INLAND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY OVER
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- BREEZY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- HISTORIC DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS, GA.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND. ONSHORE AFTERNOON BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INLAND IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE GEORGIA ON THURSDAY
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE, WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT,
PREVENTING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF TO THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S INLAND BOTH DAYS, WITH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST REACHING THE 90S AS WELL THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY
MORNING, SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS I-10 THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CURRENTLY, STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST GA, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 0.5" NORTH OF I-10.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND
RAIN COVERAGE WILL EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY, WITH A SLIGHT GRADUAL
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AREA-WIDE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HIGHEST
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, WARMEST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL (SOUTH OF THE FRONT) REACHING THE LOW 90S, UPPER 70S TO
80S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE MILD AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN STRENGTHENING FROM
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM BERMUDA AND ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS
AND CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO
SOUTHWEST, WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS THURSDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND
THEN MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO IS FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS, WITH THESE WINDS COMBINING WITH A LINGERING EASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL TO MAINTAIN A HIGHER END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST
FL BEACHES AND A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES, WHERE SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY, LIKELY
RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DISPERSIONS INLAND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
RECENT FRONT, VERY GOOD MIXING INLAND EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL RESULT IN MINRH NEAR CRITICALLY LOW VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AS WELL AS AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DAYTIME DISPERSIONS
EACH DAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL APPROACH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRING CHANCES OF RAIN MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST GA ON
THURSDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST FL AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ABOUT THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES FOR:
WED, MAY 6:
JAX: 96/2012
CRG: 96/2012
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 95/2012
THU, MAY 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 50
SSI 69 82 70 88 / 0 0 0 20
JAX 63 93 66 95 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 65 88 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 62 94 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 64 94 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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