970
FXUS62 KJAX 051805
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZE WARNING LATE TONIGHT & EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS
IMPACTED: SOUTHEAST GA, INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INNER AND
- LIGHT FREEZE & FROST LATE SAT NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS WEST OF I-95
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR AREA
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS MORNING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD "LIGHT" FREEZE TONIGHT WITH EVEN THE COASTAL
ZONES IN NE FL DIPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S. THE INHERITED
FREEZE WARNING WAS UNCHANGED, HIGHLIGHT INLAND ZONES OF NE FL FROM
THE ST JOHNS RIVER WEST AND ALL OF SE GA. COMBINE THE SUB-FREEZING
AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS WITH THE LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE,
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-28 DEGREE RANGE. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS THAT REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS (FOR NE
FL) BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL NOT REACH THAT DEGREE OF
COLDNESS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT, LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST INTO REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THIS PERIOD.
THE MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INLAND
FREEZE/FROST SATURDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE
TO DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH SUNDAY, THEN TOWARD THE
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THIS
HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA THURSDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS OVER INLAND SE GA.
EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY, THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START SUNDAY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE READINGS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MAIN HAZARDS THIS PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR INLAND FROST
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND SCATTER OUT AT INLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-00Z
FIRST THEN A GRADUAL CLEARING AT THE COAST THIS EVENING. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. AT TERMINALS THAT DO SCATTER OUT
CLOUD COVER, GUSTS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR FRIDAY, SKC CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY BREEZES AROUND 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CLIP THE WATERS RESULTING IN ANOTHER UPTICK IN WINDS
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE, OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, AND
LOWER SPEEDS BY THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK IN THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
SURF/BREAKERS ONLY IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL NE FL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS
- WIDESPREAD HIGH DISPERSIONS FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH PAST THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY, AND WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AN INLAND FROST AND FREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 47 29 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 49 35 60 44 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 53 32 64 42 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 56 35 62 46 / 40 0 0 0
GNV 57 31 64 42 / 20 0 0 0
OCF 57 30 62 43 / 30 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-120-136-137-140-220-232-236-237-240-322-340-
422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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