285
FXUS62 KJAX 211528
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1028 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAS DELIVERED A COLDER AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA.
MORNING LOWS FELL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S OVER
INLAND SE GA AS WINDS REMAINED ABOUT 5-10 MPH THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NNE WINDS 5-10 MPH.
WITH MORE WEST TO WNW WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BROAD DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 WITH UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE SOUTHERN ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
FEW TO SCATTERED MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY SKIRT ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET INTO THE
30S AND 40S. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR
LESS OVER MUCH OF NE FL WHILE REMAINING ELEVATED 5-10 MPH ALONG
THE BEACHFRONT WITH SLIGHT NNE VEERING FROM MAYPORT NORTHWARD AND
MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE REST OF THE NE FL COAST.
THIS WIND DIRECTIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW/MID 30S TO OCCUR BETWEEN
I-95 AND THE THE BEACHES ALONG COASTAL SE GA, BUT BRING IN ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR OVER MOST OF COASTAL NE FL FROM THE ST JOHNS
RIVER TO THE BEACHES TO KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWS 40S
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE AND MID 40S INTO FLAGLER
BEACH.
FOR THE INLAND AREAS, HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR SE GA AREAS WEST OF I-95 AND OVER INLAND NE FL AREAS
NW OF HIGHWAY 301 INTO THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY. A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 301 INCLUDING GAINESVILLE,
AND FOR COASTAL SE GA LOCATIONS INCLUDING BRUNSWICK WHERE WIDESPREAD
FROST IS ANTICIPATED.
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FUNNELS OVER THE AREA TODAY UNDER NNW WINDS
FOLLOWING THE MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MORNING WIND CHILLS
WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE 50S
DESPITE FULL SUN, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DAILY HIGHS FOR
THE DATE.
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNE OF REGION. WITH A COLD AND DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND AS WINDS DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS INLAND SE GA DOWN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND A FREEZE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH WIDESPREAD FROST
EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CLOSER TOWARD THE ST. JOHNS RIVER
BASIN AND COASTAL COUNTIES, A NNE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MORE MILD AND MIXED. STILL EXPECT
INLAND FROST WHERE LOWS IN THE MID 30S OCCUR INCLUDING PARTS OF
THE GOLDEN ISLES DOWN TO THE JAX WESTSIDE, CLAY, PUTNAM AND MARINE
COUNTIES...BUT IMMEDIATE COASTAL NE FL AND MUCH OF ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES SHOULD BE FROST FREE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. THE
ONLY UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT WAS TO INCLUDE
BRADFORD AND GILCHRIST COUNTIES. THE DAY SHIFT LATER TODAY WILL
UPGRADE COUNTIES TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NOT IN THE FREEZE WARNING BUT WHERE
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE
50S GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 ON SUNDAY, WITH A SLIGHT WARM-UP
AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY. ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT, SPREADING INLAND OVER CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FINAL NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING NEAR
FREEZING IN THE NEAR-FUTURE, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN FAR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FORECAST TO HIT FREEZING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FROST IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AS WELL, ALTHOUGH HIGHER WIND SPREADS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FROST
POTENTIAL. MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE 40 DEGREES AREA-
WIDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NEAR NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES EXIST, NEAR 20-30% AREA-WIDE, AS A
WEAKENING WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH TUESDAY STAYING IN THE
UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO LOWER 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MOST OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 DEGREES, WITH AGAIN A WARMING TREND
EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRISK WNW TO NNW
WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KTS IMPACTED THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING TRAILING THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NNW WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE NNE THROUGH TODAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS INLAND TO
NEAR 10-13 KTS AT THE COAST WITH COASTAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT
TIMES. A FEW STRATOCUMULUS MAY SKIRT NEAR CRG AND SGJ THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH BASES 3.5-4.5 KFT AGL
AND INCLUDED FEW035 IN BOTH TERMINALS. AFTER 00Z, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE UNDER NNE WINDS NEAR 5-8 KTS AT THE COAST TO NEAR CALM
INLAND TOWARD VQQ AND GNV.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
NORTH WINDS BEHIND A MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL DECREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COASTAL TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BRINGING PERIODS
OF ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS, SHOWERS AND ELEVATED SEAS NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS: NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LOCALLY BRING A HIGHER-END
MODERATE RIP CURRENT FOR ST. AUGUSTINE BEACHES SOUTHWARD TO
FLAGLER BEACH TODAY, WITH MODERATE RISK AT OTHER LOCAL BEACHES.
LOCAL RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASE SUNDAY TO HIGH RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SURF HEIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 54 31 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 54 39 53 45 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 55 36 57 45 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 56 41 61 51 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 56 35 61 43 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 58 35 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ021-023-030-
035-120-220-322-422-522.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ024-031-136-
232-236-425.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...NONE.
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