674
FXUS62 KJAX 071058
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
558 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY & TONIGHT. ISOLATED
TSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10 TODAY. A STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER
MARION, PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT
- LIGHT FREEZES & FROST POSSIBLE INLAND ON MON & TUES NIGHTS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A RAINY AND COOL DAY TODAY AS UPGLIDE/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS NORTH
OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHEAST FL TO NEAR A
GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE LINE BY AROUND 18Z, WITH THE GFS SLOWER
AND WEAKER WITH THE FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A COUPLE
OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND OFF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSLATE THE WAVES OF LOW OF PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
THEREBY THE FRONT BACK SOUTHWARD. A WEAK TROUGH MAY FORM NORTH OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THIS TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT
HIGH POPS ARE IN STORE WITH RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
DEEP LAYER RH AT 90+ PERCENT, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET, AND MODERATELY STRONG UPGLIDE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL WHERE
MUCAPE MAY REACH 400-700 J/KG. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT,
BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT HRRR, ACROSS MARION COUNTY, POSSIBLY FAR
SOUTH PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTY, AND ALSO NOTED IN THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GA AND ALL OF NORTHEAST FL. THE MAIN
BAND WILL SET UP NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, EXPAND IN COVERAGE, AND
THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. THE RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD BREAK UP BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL WHERE
1-3" OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO
BUST THE DROUGHT GIVEN THE DEFICIT BUT IT'S A TREND IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION.
WITH THE WET WEATHER, GLOOMY OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST
GA, AROUND 60 FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND AROUND 70-75 DEG FOR THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT DROP TO THE UPPER 40S FOR
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE 50S FOR NORTHEAST FL. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, PRIMARY DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO COVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BRINGING COOL DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH MAX TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA RANGING BETWEEN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S WITH WARMER TEMPS
OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND UPPER 40S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WITH COOLER TEMPS OCCURRING IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION AND FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK TO BE
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY FRIDAY AND THEN DROP DOWN TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENTS
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINS, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
WITH OCCASIONS OF LIFR. THERE MAY SOME OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS FOR BRIEF PERIODS IN RAIN/SHOWERS DUE TO LOW LEVEL MIXING
BY MID TO LATE TODAY. THE RAIN AND SHOWER INTENSITY DOES
INCREASE STARTING AT ABOUT 15Z/16Z AND CONTINUES UNTIL ABOUT
23Z/00Z. THE PERSISTENT RAINS END AT SSI ABOUT 04Z MONDAY, AND
FOR NORTHEAST FL TAFS AROUND 05Z-07Z MONDAY. THERE IS A SMALL
WINDOW FOR BRIEF THUNDER AT GNV FROM ABOUT 18Z - 22Z, AND DUE TO
THE LOW CHANCE WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. SFC WINDS WILL
TREND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY,
BECOMING VARIABLE OR NORTH-NORTHWEST 4-8 KNOTS TONIGHT. THERE
MAY SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AS SHOWERS TRANSLATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GNV AND SGJ TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS LATE TODAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT (WITH ANY T-STORM CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST FL WATERS). LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS
THEN STRENGTHEN WITH BUILDING SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FROM AROUND MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND LOW TO
MODERATE FOR MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE WET WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT, THEN BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SINK TO THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY.
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER NE FL THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST LIKELY OVER SE GA TUESDAY
NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 46 57 34 53 / 40 30 0 0
SSI 51 60 42 54 / 50 20 0 0
JAX 52 64 41 60 / 60 10 0 0
SGJ 57 67 49 63 / 80 20 0 0
GNV 55 68 42 64 / 80 20 0 0
OCF 58 70 45 66 / 90 20 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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