083
FXUS62 KJAX 220131
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
831 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST REMAINS WELL ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
RESTS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING BEFORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SINK EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE AND ALLOW
TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AROUND 30 DEGREES OVER INLAND
SE GA AND LOW/MID 30S OVER INLAND NE FL WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 ALONG
AND NEAR I-10, SO NO CHANGES TO THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST
ADVISORY TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY FROST COULD FORM INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF JACKSONVILLE AND ALONG HIGHWAY 301 TO
GAINESVILLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10
FURTHER INLAND.
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TO THE NORTH WITH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NE FL IN THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY AND THEN ESCAPING TO THE ATLANTIC WHILE LOW CLOUDS FILL
IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHERN FL AND WEST OF US-441 IN
SE GA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER NE FL
IN THE MID 60S AND UPPER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL TO ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER SE GA IN THE LOW 60S. LIGHT WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO EASTERLY FOR MOST AREAS AND BE VARIABLE TO WESTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WELL INLAND WEST OF HIGHWAY 301.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
CURRENTLY, CHILLY AIRMASS CONTINUES BUT SKIES ARE CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WHERE SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER TO MID 50S, WARMEST TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH ZONES. THESE TEMPS
ARE ABOUT 15-20 DEG BELOW NORMAL. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AROUND 1033 MB IS LOCATED ACROSS GA BUT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT SPREADING SOME MID
TO MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS INTO REGION. THE BASIC FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH MIN TEMPS OVER SOUTHEAST GA LIKELY TO REACH FREEZING
AND SO WE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING. FURTHER SOUTH,
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST LOOK PROBABLE SO A FROST ADVISORY
EXTENDS THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHEAST FL TO ABOUT THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
THE TEMPS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD OVERNIGHT LOWS BY MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT, MAY BEGIN REACTING TO HIGH CLOUDS BY LEVELING OUT OR
RISING 1-2 DEG BY SUNRISE, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST FL. FOR TEMPS
GUIDANCE, MAINLY USED THE NBM WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST FL WATERS LATE TONIGHT, AND THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE PLENTIFUL OFFSHORE, CURRENTLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY 12Z SAT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S EACH AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
AND ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY WILL HELP WITH THE WARM UP DURING THE DAY
BUT CLEARING SKIES INLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL ENOUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT TO SUPPORT AREAS FROST FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA. SUNDAY
WILL START MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT COMPACT SYSTEM AND THE PRECIP PREDICTED TO
ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FL BUT SOME OF THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO
SOUTHERN GA SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE JET DYNAMICS EXIST. KEPT SHOWER
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30% THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK, MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW, ORGANIZING
BENEATH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF, WILL SLIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS FLORIDA
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOLLOWING THAT
PASSING DISTURBANCE, GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
GULF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WITH IN THE NORTH STREAM WILL PIVOT IT'S TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT ISN'T TOTALLY DRY BUT PRECIP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SCANT WITH LINGERING DRYNESS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD, ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
DURING THIS MOSTLY QUIET PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE EPISODES OF MORNING
FOG.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH. HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY AT THE SURFACE 5-8 KNOTS WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR SGJ AS LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FILL IN FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS AND BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 3.5-4.0 KFT AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLACKEN BY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE AREA WATERS. SOME
INCREASED NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE INCREASE A BIT BUT
LIKELY NOT AT SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA. WINDS EXPECTED TO TREND
A LITTLE LOWER AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SCA HEADLINES WILL
BE REQUIRED AT THAT TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REST OF TODAY FOR NE FL
BEACHES UNDER GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH BREAKERS NEAR 4-6
FT. MODERATE RISK FOR SE GA BEACHES TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MORE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND STILL
ROUGH SURF.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY
CONTINUES, WITH FORECAST RISING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL LIKELY NEED A FLOOD WARNING FOR CHARLOTTEVILLE LATER
TODAY FOR A FORECAST RISE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 29 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 37 60 43 62 / 0 10 0 0
JAX 36 65 41 67 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 44 65 46 65 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 35 68 41 69 / 0 10 0 0
OCF 39 70 43 71 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-120-220-322-422-522.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ474.
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