496
FXUS62 KJAX 060642 CCA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE
WARNING POSSIBLE DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
- FROST & LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RED FLAG WATCHES/WARNINGS POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
A DIFFUSE PORTION OF A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, LOSING MOMENTUM
TO OUR NORTH AND ESSENTIALLY STALLING NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WHICH WILL RETURN A MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION, THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL NOT
PENETRATE VERY FAR SOUTH GIVEN BOTH THE SOUTHERN PROGRESS AND
STRENGTHEN OF THE FRONT, AND THEREFORE THE "SURGE" OF WINDS AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THEREFORE,
NOT EXPECTED VERY MUCH MODIFICATION TO THE CURRENT ATMOSPHERE AND
AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MORE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME DIURNAL LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST FL WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED, THOUGH MORE SUNSHINE THAN
CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR GA WHERE SOME DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH IN. SIMILAR TEMPS TO WEDNESDAY WILL BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80 INLAND, CLOSER TO THE MID 70S BY THE
COAST WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND. WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS HANG AROUND, WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH AND EAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND
WEST.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, A RETURN
FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINS TO TAKE EFFECT ON FRIDAY WITH
A GRADUALLY WARMING AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS DEVELOPING. A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THOUGH
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.25 INCH PWAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES, WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION OF POPS FRIDAY.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST FL.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH
SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20 PERCENT).
DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MENTIONED WITH A "SLIGHT CHANCE",
BUT NOTING THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WELL-DEFINED SUBSIDENCE THAT
WILL MAKE IT A BIT DIFFICULT FOR STRONG UPDRAFT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION
WILL BE CAUGHT UP BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO A LINE
FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO TN TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM GRADUALLY INTO THE LOWER 80S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST FL ON SATURDAY
WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF RECORDS AT JAX AND CRG. LOWS
WILL TREND WARMER FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY NIGHT TO
THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN PREVAILING SOUTHWEST/WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
BY SUNDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) GIVEN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, AGAIN THE MODEL SOUNDING FROM THE GFS
SHOWS LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM. A BREEZY WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
WITH AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG COLD ADVECTION
REGIME TAKING HOLD THAT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AROUND 1028 MB BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY NORTH ZONES AS THE FRONT MAY MOVE IN BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNDAY NIGHT, IT WILL THEN FEEL WAY COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORECAST
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE ONLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. THESE
TEMPERATES WILL BE SOME 25 DEGREES COLDER OVER SUNDAY'S HIGHS.
HIGH TEMPS REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND FLOW.
LOWS DROP FURTHER TO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT POST-FRONTAL. A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 30S, AND THEN WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL ESCAPE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. FROST WILL ALSO BE LIKELY INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING CONTINUES TO BE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR AIRFIELDS MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY AND THEREFORE HAVE
DONE THE SAME FOR THIS LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER, AT LEAST
MVFR WILL BE EXPECTED FOR AIRFIELDS AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND TEMPO
IFR RESTRICTIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY. BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS OF ANY AMENDMENTS
ACCORDINGLY FOR THESE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
JUST UNDER 10KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
A RATHER WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO AREA WATERS
THROUGHOUT TODAY, THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS
LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
SLATED TO CROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO AREA WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINING BREEZY WINDS AND LIKELY AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BACK TO AREA WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE TODAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS
AROUND 3 FEET AND AN UPTICK IN ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION TODAY INLAND AREAS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF I-10. DISPERSION WILL BE BETTER ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE IS CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE DRY AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WE CAN'T
RULE OUT THE NEED FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SOME LOCATIONS, BUT
AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER HEADLINE APPEARS BE WARRANTED BY
THAT TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 50 81 58 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 74 59 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 79 55 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 76 62 79 62 / 0 10 0 0
GNV 81 56 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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