919
FXUS62 KJAX 072234
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
634 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES AND REDUCE
AIR QUALITY
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY FL WILL PROVIDE SMOKEY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL TONIGHT
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER NE FL AT DAWN FRIDAY. WHILE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS HAS ENDED, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. LOWS WILL VARY
WIDELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO THE FRONTAL POSITION.
SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY FL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SMOKE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRE, REACHING AS FAR
NORTHEAST AS DUVAL COUNTY. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDS
WILL PUSH THE PLUME MORE TOWARD THE EAST OF THE FIRE LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED SHOWER/T'STORM CHANCES FRIDAY, MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING MORE OF AN ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS
WELL AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
LOW CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS AND T'STORMS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL BEING AREAS FURTHEST SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INLAND. ELSEWHERE, ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NORTH OF ABOUT I-10, WITH UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH DESPITE SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER.
MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED T'STORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER INLAND GA,
WITH THESE "WAVES" OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SPREADING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHEST COVERAGE AS WELL AS
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE, WHICH COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 0.5-1.0" IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
TREND CLOSER TO THE 0.25-0.5 RANGE FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FL. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT
SITUATION, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MORE HEATING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NE FL ON SATURDAY, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE REGION ON SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERSISTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS
BEFORE A STRONGER BOUNDARY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY. THIS COULD RETURN HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS MONDAY, BUT ALSO HAVE ENOUGH
MOMENTUM FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND INTO MID WEEK. DRIER AND "COOLER" CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO
THE TIME OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, BEFORE A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AS DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A PLUME
OF SMOKE FROM A DISTANT FIRE COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
JACKSONVILLE AREA TAF SITES. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SMOKE
PLUME WILL MOVE AWAY FROM AREA TAF SITES. A BAND OF STRATUS WITH
RESTRICTIONS IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER GNV.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OVER NE FL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TUESDAY, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON
- HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER NORTHEAST FL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40-60 MPH. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DOWN AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY
301. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINED PINNED NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST, AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
EXCEPT IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS. BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS AS WELL.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER
NORTHEAST FL, PROVIDING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY OF
INLAND NORTH FL. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR NORTH OF ABOUT I-10.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 81 63 82 / 20 0 40 80
SSI 69 78 67 81 / 20 0 40 90
JAX 71 85 67 86 / 20 10 40 80
SGJ 73 83 70 88 / 20 20 30 70
GNV 72 90 69 90 / 20 40 20 40
OCF 72 90 70 91 / 20 50 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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