205
FXUS62 KJAX 230603
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
203 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK HEAT INDEX
102-108. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AT AREA BEACHES
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
TSTORMS THIS WEEKEND & NEXT WEEK. FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING.
LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHARPENS AND LIFTS
NORTH INTO GA. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
INLAND FASTER THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY MERGE WITH THE GULF SEA
BREEZE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR LINGERS IN THE MID LEVEL, ENOUGH MOISTURE
BROUGHT INLAND BY THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD TRIGGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AND HEAT INDEX READINGS PUSH INTO THE
102-108 DEGREE RANGE (BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS). THE SEA BREEZE
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL COUNTIES A A FEW DEGREES COOLER, GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 90S.
TONIGHT, THE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH AS IT SHIFTS WEST TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A QUIET AND MILD SUMMER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT INLAND LOCATIONS
- SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER INLAND, NEAR HEAT ADVISORY ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS
FRIDAY, STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
WILL EXTEND ESE INTO THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FL AS TROUGHING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BENEATH THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL GA
AND COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH WEAK ENE FLOW LOCALLY BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
SEABREEZES CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AND PUSH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
BOUNDARIES INLAND. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR T'STORMS TO WIDELY ISOLATED. LIGHT, VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN ESE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE 10-15 MPH AT THE
COAST.
HIGHS WILL RISE TO THE MID 90S ALONG I-95 AND MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE SEABREEZE, BUT HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY VALUES
AT THE COAST AND JUST BELOW INLAND WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE LOW 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT, INLAND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNSET. INTERMITTENT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SCOOT OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS BECOMING CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG I-95 AND
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN/NE FL COAST WITH NEAR 80 VALUES ALONG THE SE GA
COAST.
SATURDAY, RIBBON OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY BETWEEN STRONG WESTERN RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL DIVE ESE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL SERVE TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AS THE WESTERN RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WILL ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
STALLED COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO SE GA SATURDAY. VERY HIGH
PWATS WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONT WITH VALUES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ABOVE 2.0-2.4 INCHES OVER SE GA AND NEAR 2.0
INCHES OVER NE FL. WITH WNW FLOW, ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL REMAIN
PINNED ALONG OR JUST EAST OF I-95 WHERE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING, LIFT FROM THE SEABREEZE AND FRONT FOCUS
STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 301. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR I-
95 ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND HEAVY
WATER LOADING SUPPORT GUSTY DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS 40-55 MPH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER LONGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
WITH MID 90S AT THE COAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP INLAND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST AND PEAK
HEAT INDICES 106-110 WILL CREATE POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR NE FL COASTAL SE GA AND THE NE FL COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
- POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO NE FL SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO NE FL MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING IS SHARPENED BY ANOTHER
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO SE GA WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
SINKS THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS, STRONG HEATING, AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND THE
ATLANTIC/GULF SEABREEZES.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
WITH INCREASING WSW WINDS OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MID 90S EVEN TO THE BEACHES DUE TO WEST
TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND 106-110 ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS 104-108 INLAND.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, DRY AIR WILL LIMIT TODAYS POTENTIAL FOR TSRA
WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AT INLAND TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO TSRA AS SEA
BREEZES CONVERGE NEAR KGNV THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 20Z-24Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL NORTH OF THE GEORGIA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH THIS FEATURE POTENTIALLY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREVAILING WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS:
SURF HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER TODAY, HOWEVER A LOWER END MODERATE
RISK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
AT ALL LOCAL AREA BREACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES INLAND ON SUNDAY
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST TODAY AS BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES
TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, TURNING WINDS ESE 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
301 WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE ALOFT WILL RESIDE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTHWARDS SLOWLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SUPPORT HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ACROSS INLAND
AREAS ON SUNDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 35-40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 96 75 96 75 / 0 10 10 10
SSI 93 80 93 80 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 96 76 96 77 / 10 0 10 0
SGJ 92 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 96 74 96 75 / 20 20 10 10
OCF 95 74 95 76 / 20 20 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page