321  
FXUS62 KJAX 011105  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
605 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS AREA TODAY. FORCING ALONG  
THIS FRONT, AND MOISTURE COVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER  
CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. AN EMPHASIS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WILL  
BE NEAR THE I95 CORRIDOR OF NE FL, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WAVE  
ALONG FRONTAL ZONE, AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. CLOUD COVER WILL  
REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW BRIEF BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE  
OVERALL TREND WILL BE CLOUDY.  
 
AT THIS POINT, PLACING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
TO AROUND THE FL/GA LINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S NORTH OF  
THE FRONT, BUT 70S SOUTH OF IT. AT THE EXTREMES, HAZLEHURST WILL  
BARELY MAKE IT TO 60 TODAY, WHILE 80 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OCALA. THE  
FRONT WILL EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS  
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S SE GA, TO THE LOWER 60S SE GA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A WETTER MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A  
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH. AS THE WARM FRONT  
LIFT INTO THE REGION, A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONJUR UP  
MARGINAL INSTABILITY EACH DAY WITH FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING. AMID  
THIS WARMER, MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY  
TO FOCUS ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WHERE LOW  
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT. ALOFT, A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES  
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF  
OF MEXICO AND TRACK SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE DEEP  
SHEAR IS MEAGER (< 30KTS), CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A STRONG STORM  
OR TWO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WAKE  
SUBSIDENCE ACTS AS A SUPPRESANT. HOWEVER, AN ONSHORE FLOW AND  
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOULD INSTIGATE SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST  
OF I-95. AGAIN, LITTLE SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AND ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY.  
 
IN ADDITION TO MORE ACTIVE, WETTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE  
COMBINATION OF THE WARMER, MOIST AIRMASS AND DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IS  
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORNING FOG EACH DAY, WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY  
DENSE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE  
BOUNDARY STALLS AS IT WILL DICTATING WHERE HIGHER SHOWER COVERAGE  
AND MORE PERSISTENT MORNING STRATUS WILL BE. FOR NOW, KEPT HIGHS IN  
THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY. NEAR CARBON-  
COPY FORECAST FOR LOWS EACH MORNING WITH MILD TEMPS INTHE UPPER 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL STAY ENTRENCEHD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL ZONE DISSIPATES. SEA  
BREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE  
THE NEXT FORMIDABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL, ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, WITH DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. A BOUNDARY WILL  
APPROCAH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY STALL TO THE  
NORTH, KEEP THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT WISHY-WASHY WITH AMID THE ACTIVE  
PATTERN NEXT WEEK AND TIMING AND DETAILS REGARDING STORM POTENTIAL  
WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS. ALL IN ALL, THIS WILL BE A  
STAGNANT BUT ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFFER  
FOGGY MORNINGS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 602 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. FOR KSSI  
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. FOR OTHER SITES, A  
TREND TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN LOWERING ONCE AGAIN IN  
THE EVENING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY,  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH  
SATURDAY, THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUNDAY  
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO  
MID WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO REGION  
LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH TODAY, MODERATE SATURDAY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 65 55 74 58 / 60 60 50 30  
SSI 67 58 69 57 / 60 70 50 40  
JAX 74 60 75 58 / 50 70 60 40  
SGJ 74 61 74 59 / 30 70 50 50  
GNV 78 62 77 59 / 50 60 60 30  
OCF 79 62 77 60 / 50 60 60 30  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-133-  
138.  
 
GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.  
 

 
 

 
 
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