356
FXUS62 KJAX 230003
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
803 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, COASTAL/MARINE IMPACTS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH - MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR TIDAL AND COASTAL
FLOODING
- DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COASTS & ST. JOHNS RIVER. DANGEROUS/HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL SATURDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS: THROUGH TONIGHT
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING PORTIONS OF NE FL
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IT WILL BE A DRY NIGHT. WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW, THERE WILL BE A
BROAD RANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
INTERIOR SE GA AND LOWS AROUND 60 ALONG THE NE FL COAST.
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- COASTAL & MARINE HAZARDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK, ROUGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING BY
SATURDAY.
- WIND ADVISORY LIKELY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING A STEADY
INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS INTO AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS BEGINNING TO INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING MAINLY COASTAL
SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE ON FRIDAY,
BECOMING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL AREAS ON
SATURDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, COASTAL
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, INCLUDING HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK, HIGH AND ROUGH SURF, GUSTY WINDS, AND MINOR TO
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION, WHILE THE REST OF NE FL WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD: SUNDAY THROUGH WENESDDAY
- COASTAL HAZARDS EXPECTED AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HEAVY RAIN BANDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-95
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
INTERACTING WITH TROUGHING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALSO TO PERSIST STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL/MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SAME HIGH WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT
MORE DUE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, BUT
ESSENTIALLY REPLACED BY A "FRESH" RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD FOR MID WEEK. DUE TO CONVERGENCE FROM THE
RIDGING AND INVERTED TROUGHING, BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING
IN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WEAKENENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
SLIGHTLY. THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO AT LEAST
MODEST ONSHORE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE LONG
TERM, WHICH WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN PROLONGED HAZARDS INCLUDING
MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL/ST. JOHNS RIVER FLOODING PERSISTING IN
ADDITION TO AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES AND ROUGH
SURF/BEACH EROSION.
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERALL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LONG
TERM THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BUILD WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH
OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS TO GALE FORCE
MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIKELY FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURGE OF MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND WILL
ALSO SUPPORT ELEVATED CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WHICH
LASTS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES MUCH OF THIS WEEK
AND WEEKEND GIVEN THE ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE FLOW.
ELEVATED SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
ANY SWIMMER ENTERING THE SURF ZONE. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
WITH SURF ESTIMATED TO REACH UPWARDS OF 7 TO 10 FEET BY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- INLAND RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON
- INLAND SE GA RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30 FRIDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION, WITH BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS PERSISTING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL CAUSE
MIN RHS TO BE JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S FOR MUCH OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR
MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION
IS NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW MINOR FLOODING STILL OCCURRING FROM
DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE UPSTREAM/SOUTHWARD TO SATSUMA. PEAK WATER
LEVELS HAVE BEEN FROM 1.6 TO 1.9 FT MHHW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, WHILE
FROM SOUTHBANK/MAIN STREET TO DAMES POINT AND MAYPORT PEAKED JUST
BELOW 1.6 FT SO JUST BELOW MINOR AT THIS TIME. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT AND LATEST PETSS GUIDANCE SHOW WATER
LEVELS PUSHING A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND STILL IN
MINOR CATEGORY. THEREFORE, THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONTINUED FOR THE
CURRENT AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND
THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY/MONDAY OCT 25-26 WILL PUSH WATER LEVELS UP
FURTHER, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING (UP TO 2.5 FT MHHW) AND COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SOME TIDAL STATIONS MAY REACH LOW-
END MODERATE FLOODING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE, BUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING WOULD OCCUR.
AT THE BEACHES, MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO THE ROUGH SURF. AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED SURF AND WATER LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER BEACH EROSION POTENTIAL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHER THAN THE
PRIOR NORTHEAST WIND EVENT AROUND OCT 17TH-18TH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 49 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 55 71 59 71 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 54 74 60 73 / 0 0 30 50
SGJ 60 75 65 75 / 0 0 60 90
GNV 54 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 54 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ038-125-
132-137-138-225-325-333-633.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-325-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-
166.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ450-452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page