183  
FXUS62 KJAX 030801  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
   
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
 
   
..MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
 
   
..SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 
 
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
 
THE LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO  
THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AS MOIST MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO BE  
BROUGHT ONSHORE. DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THROUGH THE  
DAY, THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX, ALLOWING FOR  
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, WITH GUSTY WINDS STILL ALONG THE  
COAST. WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE COASTAL FLOOD  
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.  
 
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND  
LOCATIONS, WHILE COOLER MARINE AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP COASTAL  
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY  
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
 
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON  
THURSDAY AS TROUGHING BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES,  
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN  
WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS THE  
FL STRAITS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FL, WITH WEAK  
CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN  
BAHAMAS. AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT  
SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL, WHERE PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL  
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR  
VERY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP  
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL, MOSTLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR, WHERE THE  
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA BREEZES WILL COLLIDE TOWARDS SUNSET.  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB  
TO THE LOW AND MID 90S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR,  
WITH UPPER 80S PREVAILING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE A LIGHT  
ONSHORE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL.  
 
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON  
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70  
DESPITE FAIR SKIES AT INLAND LOCATIONS, EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR NORTH  
CENTRAL FL AND MID 70S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY  
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST CENTRAL  
FL COAST MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN  
PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST GA, WITH PWATS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK UP  
TOWARDS EARLY SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH  
CENTRAL FL, WHICH MAY HELP TO IGNITE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION  
ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE  
I-10 CORRIDOR, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. THE LINGERING DRY AIR  
MASS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL AGAIN BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 90S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
AROUND 90 FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, WHERE AN ONSHORE BREEZE WILL  
PREVAIL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 FOR INLAND  
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10.  
 
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO AROUND 70 AT  
INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHILE A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE  
AGAIN KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR  
MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHILE PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR EARLY  
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FOR  
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SEASONABLY HOT AND  
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR  
REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH INLAND HIGHS SOARING TO THE MID 90S,  
WHILE A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL HIGHS CLOSER TO 90.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND  
NORTH CENTRAL FL, WITH VALUES NEAR 100 FOR SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS THIS  
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE.  
 
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS  
WEEKEND WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE NATION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD  
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, BUT A LINGERING DRY AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD KEEP  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. THIS  
TROUGH WILL CAPTURE THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM EASTERN PACIFIC  
TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM  
TROUGH CARRYING THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
ON MONDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL SHIFT  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY, WITH THIS  
FEATURE THEN EXPECTED TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER  
OUR AREA, AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AS OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S.-301 CORRIDORS  
AS ONSHORE WINDS BECOME BREEZY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL  
STILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF  
THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE SHOULD THEN INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS LORENA'S REMNANT  
MOISTURE ARRIVE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW  
STRENGTHENS FURTHER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND  
WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER  
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS (SEE "COASTAL  
FLOODING" SECTION BELOW FOR PRELIMINARY DETAILS). INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S, AND LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK AREA-WIDE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF  
PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE  
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COASTAL  
TAF SITES AROUND THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AROUND  
15Z/16Z. SOME COASTAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF SGJ. BY 00Z, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE ONCE  
AGAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
 
LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED EAST OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS ADJACENT TO  
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN  
SEABOARD TODAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. BREEZY  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SEAS CONTINUE TO  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE WATERS  
SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY  
STALLED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL.  
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS  
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
THEN APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS  
FRONT THEN STALLING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN BREAKER  
HEIGHTS OF 3-4 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH 2-3 FOOT  
BREAKERS EXPECTED AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. WE WILL EXTEND THE  
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH A  
HIGHER END MODERATE RISK FOR THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. BREAKERS  
WILL DIMINISH TO 2-3 FEET AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES ON THURSDAY  
AND TO AROUND 2 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES, WITH A MODERATE  
RISK PREDICTED FOR ALL AREA BEACHES EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
 
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS  
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY.  
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
TODAY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR, WITH ELEVATED MIXING  
HEIGHTS ALLOWING FOR FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES  
DESPITE LIGHT SPEEDS WELL INLAND. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL  
BECOME EASTERLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERLY FURTHER  
INLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS  
DEVELOPING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.  
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL AGAIN YIELD FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME  
DISPERSION VALUES.  
 

 
   
COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2025  
 
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE  
TRAPPED TIDES WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO THE  
SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE  
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY (ICCW) IN COASTAL FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS  
COUNTIES, RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.  
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS,  
WHICH HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF  
HIGH TIDE.  
 
TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS  
BASIN THIS WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FULL "HARVEST" MOON ON  
SUNDAY SEPT 7TH. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS WILL  
GENERALLY RISE BETWEEN 1.5 - 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER  
(MHHW) AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM THIS WEEK THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST  
OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ELEVATED TIDE  
LEVELS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
ONSHORE WINDS POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMG 88 64 91 68 / 0 0 0 0  
SSI 85 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0  
JAX 88 70 91 72 / 10 0 10 0  
SGJ 87 74 88 75 / 20 10 20 10  
GNV 91 69 93 70 / 10 0 20 10  
OCF 90 71 91 73 / 10 10 30 10  
 

 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ038-132-137-  
138-233-333-633.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-  
233-333.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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