754
FXUS62 KJAX 310503
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1203 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT & EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GA, INLAND NORTHEAST & NORTH
CENTRAL FL. WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO 20-25 EARLY ON WED MORNING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES. FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
LIGHT FREEZE WITH WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON
WED NIGHT
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25% & WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS & BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED SAT & SAT
NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE
UNDER SUNNY SKIES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S SE GA AND
MID/UPPER 50S NE FL. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10
MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL NE FL/SE GA AREA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE A WEST TO NORTHWEST COLD FLOW AND EXPECT ANOTHER
POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZE AND/OR WIDESPREAD FROST IN PLACE FOR ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOWS AROUND 30F, WHILE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. FROST
AND FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR MOST OF SE GA
AND NE FL COUNTIES BY THE DAY SHIFT ONCE THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NE STATES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS FLOW OVER THE REGION BECOMES
MORE ZONAL, THIS WILL SHIFT WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES JUST
EAST OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SE COAST. SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE AND HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 60S OVER SE GA AND THE MID 60S OVER NE FL.
THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL.
LOWS WILL DIP BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S INLAND WITH ISOLATED LOW
30S NORTH OF I-10, UPPER 30S OVER INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FL, AND THE
LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS FRIDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN FL TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AND LOCAL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
OUR WEST FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TN VALLEY WITH INCREASING
SHOWERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA, BUT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDING,
HIGHS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S
OVER SE GA AND UPPER 60S OVER NE FL AND AROUND 70F OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURDAY, SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AMPLIFYING DEEP TROUGHING
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL CREATE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ARKLAMISS REGION THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO
THE SC/GA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ABOVE THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO 1.3-1.5 INCHES AND AID
NUMEROUS SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST OVER
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY INTO SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED, EMBEDDED T'STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE HEAVIER
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT MOSTLY ELEVATED. WHILE
STRONG SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA, LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
APPEARS VERY LIMITED TO SW GA AND GULF COAST IN NORTHERN FL/NATURE
COAST, SO ANY STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NE FL
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GENERALLY HALF INCH TO ONE INCH TOTALS, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE LIGHT
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A COLD FRONT
SINKS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG BACK BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL AS A ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE
FRONT AND TREKS ESE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL TO THE BAHAMAS, WITH
DRIZZLE LINGERING THERE AND NEAR THE NE FL COAST.
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO MORE TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL SEND
ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH FORMS WITH SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING ONTO THE FIRST
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN, BUT SHOWERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE STREAKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT STAYS NORTH OF THE
AREA. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY, COOL
TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE BRIEFLY DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON SATURDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE WEDNESDAY
NE FL MODERATE WEDNESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH COLD AND DRY AIR
REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE DRY AIR WILL BRING MIN RH VALUES INTO
THE 20S AREA-WIDE AGAIN TODAY. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S, A BIT HIGHER OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S. WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH AND
ONGOING DROUGHT, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
INLAND AREAS (BOTH SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL). FAIR TO GOOD
DISPERSIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FROST MELTING BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2
INCHES. FOG NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 54 31 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 54 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 56 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 56 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 56 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 57 32 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-
023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
533-633.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236-
237-240-322-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ125-138-233-
325-333.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ470-472.
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