980
FXUS62 KJAX 012357
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
757 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
- INCREASING TSTORMS & DOWNPOURS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WAVES
OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
- COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS INCREASING NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST WINDS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INCREASINGLY ROUGH SURF WILL CREATE DEADLY RIP CURRENTS AND
BEACH EROSION. MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPDATE
WITH THE LOCAL AIRMASS BECOMING INCREASING MORE MOIST (PWAT NOW
AT 2.33 INCHES FROM THE 18Z JAX SOUNDING), RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
TO TICK UP EACH DAY NOW. FOR TONIGHT, A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTH OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTHEAST FL, PROMPTING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE
WANING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS THOUGH. STILL LOOKS LIKE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE INLAND ZONES BUT MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF I-10. MINOR CHANGES
TO THE POPS AND SKY CONDITION, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED TO THE EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA'S OUTER BANKS, WITH THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
STATES SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL TX.
ALOFT...STOUT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH THIS FEATURE DEFLECTING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WAS EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES NORTHEASTWARD. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WAS SPINNING WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO'S
YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (SOUTHWESTERN GULF).
LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH PWATS NOW GENERALLY IN THE 2 - 2.2 INCH
RANGE THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHILE PWATS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA MOSTLY IN THE 1.75 - 1.9 INCH RANGE. A HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA DUE TO THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED MOSTLY WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS
OF 19Z. DEEPENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WAS
DIRECTING THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, GENERALLY
AT 15-20 MPH. OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
TEMPERATURES AT INLAND LOCATIONS WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90, WHILE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY. INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (DUE TO NEARBY DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING) SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE, WITH STRONG STORMS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AS ACTIVITY MOVES FAIRLY BRISKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE FL PENINSULA
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD OVERSPREAD
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND, WHILE A LIGHT
ONSHORE BREEZE KEEPS COASTAL LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:
- ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES, WITH STRONG STORMS CONTAINING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD, AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. CONVECTION EACH DAY WILL BE INITIATED IN THE LATE
MORNING HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS ON THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FRIDAY NIGHT, DUE TO A LACK OF HEATING, BUT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DEVELOP TOWARD
AREA FROM TROUGH OVER GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING, DEADLY SURF, AND
GUSTY COASTAL CONDITIONS.
- POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTHEAST, AS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GULF TROUGH STRETCHES
EAST ACROSS REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN BE NEAR OR OVER THE
REGION THEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WAVES OF
ENERGY MOVING EAST ALONG IT.
IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME MODELS ARE DEPICTING A LOW TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ON THE FRONT, AS STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL LEAD TO A SURGE OF WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS MAY
BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST.
CURRENT MODEL TIMING PUSHES THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST, ALONG
WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THIS PERIOD, THEN BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST PART THIS EVENING, BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 04Z/05Z,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEAST FL TAFS. OVERNIGHT, THERE MAY BE FEW MORE
LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR DEVELOPING IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW BUT CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 09Z-14Z FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST MAINLY
NEAR CRG, SGJ, AND MAYBE AT SSI. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z, BECOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTER 18Z. FOR MOST PART WILL STAY WITH PROB30 GROUPS
FRIDAY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT SUBSEQUENT TAFS MAY NEED
UPDATING TO TEMPO GROUPS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER LOCAL WATERS WHILE A
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PROMOTES INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
BRIEFLY STALLS THROUGH MONDAY, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY
BUILDS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST,
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A SHARP SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS,
MAKING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS NEAR 1-2 FT,
ONSHORE FLOW, AND PRIOR SURF CONDITIONS SUGGEST A LOW-END MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THIS WILL BE A WET AND STORMY PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
SATURDAY, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM IT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
ELEVATED WINDS WILL SURGE DOWN THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY INLAND FOG TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY THIS PERIOD.
EQUIPMENT
THE KVAX DOPPLER RADAR IN VALDOSTA GA NEAR MOODY AFB REMAINS
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. PLEASE UTILIZE KTLH
(TALLAHASSEE), KJGX (ROBINS AFB), OR KJAX (JACKSONVILLE) DURING
THE OUTAGE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 90 72 87 / 20 60 30 70
SSI 75 86 75 84 / 20 40 50 60
JAX 74 88 73 86 / 20 60 40 70
SGJ 77 87 75 86 / 30 60 70 70
GNV 73 89 72 88 / 30 70 50 80
OCF 74 90 74 89 / 30 70 50 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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