449
FXUS62 KJAX 021820
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
120 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HARD FREEZE INLAND,
LIGHT FREEZE COAST WIDESPREAD FROST.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
REST OF TODAY, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
WINDS LOWER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 22 MPH OR SO. TEMPS HAVE REACHED ABOUT 50 DEG AS OF
1 PM, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/CENTER WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL FL AREA
BY DAWN ON TUESDAY, AND EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT WEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WITH A BIT OF A DRAINAGE FLOW
BOOSTING THE WIND A BIT THERE TO NEAR 5 MPH. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN AFTER ABOUT 3-4 AM TONIGHT WILL NOT
HAVE NOTABLE IMPACT ON LOWS. THEREFORE, FORECAST ON TRACK WITH
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST DUE TO NEAR CALM WINDS AND RH VALUES THAT REACH
TO UPWARDS OF 85-95 PERCENT, ENCOURAGING THE FROST FORMATION. A
MODERATE TO HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S, AND A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST, GENERALLY AROUND 30-32F ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
LOWER 30S FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TUESDAY ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION BEFORE RATHER QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL START TO INDUCE MORE OF A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF BREAKS WHICH WILL HELP
HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT
BE AS COLD THANKS TO THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW AS WELL AS
THICKENING HIGHER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
BREWING TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING THE
FURTHER NORTHWEST YOU GO, TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY RARE
NIGHT IN WHICH LOWS OVER INTERIOR GA WILL LIKELY BE MILDER THAN
ACROSS INLAND FL WHERE MORE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED. EXPECTING LOW TO MID 40S OVER INLAND GA AND BY THE
COASTS/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, AND MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INLAND
FL AND TOWARDS THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LATTER AREAS WHERE WINDS STAY CALM ENOUGH.
WEDNESDAY, COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SE GA DURING
THE DAY AND ONTO THE FL/GA STATE LINE INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE SHEAR/DYNAMICS AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL
BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BOTH
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY T'STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
IN MAGNITUDE AND DURATION TO PUMP IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEFORE THE
FRONT ARRIVES. THE SHOWERS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS THROUGH
NE FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY, THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT DUE TO THE OVERALL
LACK IN MOISTURE, BUT A GENERAL 0.25-0.33" WILL BE EXPECTED, AND
ANYTHING HELPS WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER SE GA,
AND THE MID 60S OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER/MID 40S AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN LATE
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS EARLY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE RECENT COLD AIR
OUTBREAK, ANOTHER COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE AREA BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WISE ON THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY AS WELL DESPITE
SOME MODERATION. SEVERAL DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES, MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY, WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO OTHER PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME, WITH
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCES FOR ANY
RAINFALL. FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN, WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR EACH MORNING THIS WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VFR WITH SKC TODAY, WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS (FL200-FL250) LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SFC WINDS...W TO NW FLOW ABOUT 10G15 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOME LIGHT WEST THIS EVENING, AND TRENDING TO
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
TUESDAY BY 14Z-15Z.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY, MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: SOLID MODERATE RISK FROM A LONG PERIOD ENE SWELL
(ABOUT 15 SECONDS) FROM DEPARTING STORM PRODUCING SURF/BREAKERS
IN THE 3-5 FT/3-4 FT RANGE REST OF TODAY WITH A DECREASE TO
ABOUT 2-4 FT SURF/BREAKERS ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES TODAY.
- AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS SOUTH OF I-10 IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TUESDAY.
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH BETTER MIXING THAN SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY GOOD DISPERSIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MIN
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW CRITICAL VALUES TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AS
WELL. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL START
OFF LIGHT TUESDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT OVER NORTHEAST FL, THOUGH START
TO STRENGTHEN OVER INTERIOR GA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LIGHTER
FLOW WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST FL, AND IN THE FAIR RANGE OVER GA. MIN RH VALUES
IMPROVE TO AROUND 30 PERCENT TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED AS
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. INCREASING SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE AREAS OF
HIGH DISPERSIONS SOUTH OF I-10 WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO
END THE WEEK WITH MINRH VALUES APPROACHING NEAR CRITICAL VALUES 25-
30 PERCENT BY FRIDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORDS CHALLENGED BY THE ARCTIC COLD AIR OUTBREAK ARE BELOW:
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 2ND:
KJAX: 23/1979
KGNV: 25/1980
KCRG: 27/1980
FEBRUARY 3RD:
KCRG: 29/1994
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 28 62 42 61 / 0 0 10 90
SSI 34 59 45 63 / 0 0 0 50
JAX 27 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 30
SGJ 31 62 39 70 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 26 65 37 71 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 26 64 34 71 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
433-522-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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