891
FXUS62 KJAX 102338
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
738 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDEX VALUES RISE TO THE 100-105 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES AS BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN GA WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST. ALOFT, AREA IS IN A COL WITH HIGH PRESSURE CELLS AT
MID LEVELS OVER AL AND ANOTHER ONE ABOUT 200-250 MILES EAST OF NC.
PWATS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ABOUT 1.9 INCHES, AND SO ABOUT 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL. MLCAPE FROM MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 1400-1800 J/KG, WEAK SHEAR, AND DCAPE OF ABOUT 500 SO NOT A
GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY INLAND AREAS AND FAVORED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST FL WHERE THE EASTERLY FLOW MEETS UP WITH WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY/ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
8 PM AND THEN FADE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES TENDING TO BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MAINLY THREATS HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY MORNING, BUT
FOG CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT INDEX BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS TO END THE WORK WEEK
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
- MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100-105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
OVERALL, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST CLOSER TO I-75
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HELP OF WEAK SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. BY FRIDAY, WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY,
MOVING THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES CLOSER TO I-95 BUT CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE 20-40% RANGE. STRONG, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND
SPOTTY, BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DANGEROUS HEAT FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS THIS WEEKEND
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THIS WEEKEND
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH A STALLED FRONT TO OUR
NORTH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RANGE FROM 40-70%, WITH MOST ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST, KEEPING THE HIGHER
STORM CHANCES CLOSER TO I-95, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT SUPER IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER SATURATED AREAS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS
SET UP.
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE DANGEROUS HEAT, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND,
EVEN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE
SATURDAY, WHERE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100-
108 DEGREES, SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FOR THURSDAY, WITH SOME MIST FOR
VQQ AS USUAL FROM 05Z TO 12Z. SE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY
MORNING BECOME SE 5-10 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
GNV BETWEEN 18-23Z. HAVE PROB30 IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL EXTEND ITS AXIS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
AND WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS
INLAND. WEAK TROUGHING WILL THEN DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, SHIFTING PREVAILING WINDS TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY EVENING WIND SURGES MAY INCREASE
SPEEDS TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF SEA BREEZE WINDS, SMALL WIND-
SEA SWELLS, AND WIND WAVES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOW END
MODERATE RISK REST OF TODAY. SIMILAR PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS
THURSDAY, KEEPING THE LOWER END MODERATE RISK IN PLACE AT AREA
BEACHES. THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL THEN FADE TOWARDS FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD LOWER THE RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES, WHILE A
LOWER END MODERATE RISK LIKELY CONTINUES EACH AFTERNOON AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WHERE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
FOLLOWING THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN A POSITION TO FAVOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT ACCOMPANYING SEA BREEZE WIND SPEEDS TO BE
IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE, OR AROUND 5-9 AT EYE LEVEL. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HEAT UP THIS WEEK WITH MID 90S LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WHILE
LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND 40-
45%. ANTICIPATE THE RETURN OF MORE REGULAR BOUTS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THOUGH FINE
FUELS HAVE DRIED TO CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE RECENT DRY STRETCH,
THERE IS NO GLARING POTENTIAL OF CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER ALIGNMENT.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AND ELEVATED DISPERSION WILL
DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
THE RETURN OF SUMMERTIME HEAT LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. LESS LIKELY TO SEE READINGS
REACH RECORD HIGHS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO BE THREATENED.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12: KJAX: 99/1998
JUNE 13: KJAX: 100/1977
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11: KJAX: 77/2005 KGNV: 75/2005
JUNE 12: KJAX: 79/1952 KGNV: 76/1963
JUNE 13: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 79/1998
JUNE 14: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 77/1998
JUNE 15: KJAX: 80/1880 KGNV: 78/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 93 76 95 / 10 10 10 20
SSI 77 89 78 92 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 72 93 76 95 / 0 10 10 30
SGJ 73 90 75 93 / 0 10 10 20
GNV 72 94 73 95 / 20 40 20 20
OCF 73 92 74 93 / 30 40 20 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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