888
FXUS62 KJAX 152310
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
710 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
- MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER
- MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. DANGEROUS SURF ZONE
CONDITIONS - HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH, HIGH SURF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, POTENTIAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL AT COAST, ICW & ST. JOHNS BASIN. EXTENDED
DURATION MINOR FLOODING ALONG ST JOHNS RIVER INTO NEXT WEEK POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE LATE TONIGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, AND MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING
-COASTAL HAZARDS BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
BEGINNING STAGES OF ELEVATED WATER LEVELS, HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK,
AND ROUGH SURF AND SEAS.
- NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 40 MPH ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FL, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A WIND
ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL, BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE A WEAK
EAST COAST BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS A BIT COOLER IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COULD
BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG NORTH CENTRAL
FL LOCATIONS, WHERE PWATS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1.8" TO 1.9" RANGE. BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SE
GA AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG INLAND NE FL, WITH MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND TOWARDS
COASTAL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF
AROUND 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY, WITH COASTAL
SHOWERS ALSO LIKELY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S, WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING TIDAL FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, ELEVATED
RIP RISK AND SURF EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS,
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALSO PERSISTING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AROUND THE MID 20 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS,
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DECREASE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.
THE ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS TIDAL
FLOODING, RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH
EROSION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE WEEKEND, UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THIS FOG WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRSIE, WITH A
TREND TO VFR STARTING MID MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHICH MAY REACH KSGJ LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW FOR A KSGJ STORM TO INCLUDE
MORE THAN A VCTS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY, THEN WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE SOUTH
DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH ELEVATED WINDS FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WITH ROUGH SURF FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY, WITH EASTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. ELEVATED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SE GA AND NE FL BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY, GOOD TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS DEVELOP OVER SE GA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WITH FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS EXPECTED OVER NE FL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE OVER INLAND AREAS AND DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SATILLA
RIVER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, ICWW, AND
ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. SOME SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, AS SEAS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BUILD TO THE 10-15 FT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE SOUTHEAST GA NEARSHORE SEAS MAINLY IN THE 8-13 FT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 64 87 62 70 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 68 86 67 74 / 0 0 0 30
JAX 66 89 68 74 / 0 10 0 10
SGJ 70 88 70 76 / 0 20 20 20
GNV 67 89 69 76 / 0 10 20 10
OCF 69 89 70 76 / 0 20 30 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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