118  
FXUS62 KJAX 090020  
AFDJAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL  
820 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:  
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF  
 
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MAINLY  
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT, THOUGH  
WITH A LIKELY DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND BASIC  
AREAL COVERAGE. HOWEVER, LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE  
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS FOR INLAND AREAS, GIVEN THE  
HUMID AIRMASS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE  
IS ALSO A HINT OF A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA  
THAT HELPS SUPPORT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE RECENT  
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DIMINISHED TREND IN THE CONVECTION (MAINLY  
ISOLATED COVERAGE) AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE HRRR AND  
FV3, SO HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMUM OF SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND  
STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MORE  
LIKELY WEST OF I-95, PUSHING INLAND AS SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE. AMPLE  
MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA'S SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL  
CREATE CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THOSE AREA.  
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S OVER INLAND  
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S  
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER  
SUNSET BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER  
ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY, CONDITIONS DRY OUT SLIGHTLY TO BRING  
PWATS JUST UNDER 2" OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SOME OF  
THE HIGHER VALUES HOVERING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL LOWER  
PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA. AFTERNOON RAIN AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS  
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND SEA-BREEZES CONVERGE  
INLAND. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO BE IN THE LOW 90S OVER  
INLAND AREAS WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS STAYING SLIGHTLY COOLER.  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH  
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE  
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE ITS WAY WELL INLAND  
THROUGH THE WEEK, CREATING THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WEST OF I-95.  
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE  
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO  
PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE 70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
CURRENTLY, CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES SO MAY NEED  
TO AMEND TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS FOR THE REST OF THE  
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (AFTER  
03Z), BUT TOO LOW CHANCE TO SHOW ANY PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS. A  
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY SO HAVE ALREADY  
PLACED IN VCSH/VCTS AFTER 16Z, AND SOME PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS  
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE  
EACH AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEA-BREEZE WILL MAKE ITS WAY WELL INLAND  
THROUGH THE WEEK, CREATING THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WEST OF I-95.  
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. THE  
ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL HELP KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO  
PEAK EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 100-105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IN THE 70S.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH LONG-PERIOD  
ONSHORE SWELL TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS WELL  
WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AMG 74 91 73 92 / 40 80 30 60  
SSI 77 89 76 90 / 20 50 30 40  
JAX 74 92 74 93 / 30 70 20 60  
SGJ 76 91 75 92 / 30 60 20 50  
GNV 73 92 72 93 / 20 70 10 60  
OCF 74 91 73 92 / 10 70 10 60  
 
 
   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
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