626
FXUS62 KJAX 061130
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
730 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG STORM
POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
- INCREASING RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
THE MID / UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA FOR A
FEW DAYS WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z TODAY, LOCATED
FROM EASTERN TN SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY. MEAN STEERING FLOW THROUGH
ABOUT 500 MB WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10-15 KT AND PWATS
WILL BE JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES, BUT NOTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN PER THE GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE WITH PWATS LOWERING TO ABOUT THE
1.6 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE BY 09Z FRIDAY.
WITH THE ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE ESSENTIALLY LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN GA
THIS MORNING, THE DEVELOPING BACKGROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENABLE
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE IN STEADILY INLAND DURING THE DAY,
WITH WINDS BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. DON'T
SEE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MAKING IT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, WE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BE PRESENT OVER THE
MARINE WATERS WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CHS, THERE
MAY BE A RISK OF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR A WATERSPOUT OVER THE MARINE
WATERS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CAPE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8 AM TO NOON TIME, GENERALLY PUSHING WESTWARD
FROM OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MOVING TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH MLCAPE RISING TO ABOUT 2400-2800 J/KG RANGE. OVER
SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS INDICATED IN SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. MAIN STORM THREATS ARE
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DCAPE VALUES
ARE NOT EXCESSIVE, AND LOOK TO STAY UNDER 700 J/KG SO WINDS OF ABOUT
40-50 MPH SEEM REASONABLE FOR POSSIBLE DOWNBURST WINDS. SOUNDINGS
AND HREF SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL,
WHICH IF THERE WERE SOME BRIEF TRAINING OF CELLS, COULD DUMP 4+
INCHES OF RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE, CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND
AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING, MOST COMMON WELL WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 AND CLOSE TO THE I-75
CORRIDOR. NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR A STORM
POSSIBLE, WHICH, AFTER MIDNIGHT WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES GIVEN THE PREVAILING DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S TOWARD
THE COAST WHERE A GENTLE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST HAZARDS
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC. AS
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NE FL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY OVER COASTAL NE FL. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, STORMS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WITH THE INLAND PUSH OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, WITH
MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZES MERGERS
BETWEEN US-301 AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR ACROSS NE FL. ON SATURDAY, THE
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, ALLOWING FOR COASTAL
SHOWERS AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
(PWATS IN THE 2+" RANGE) COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL DRIVE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTY
DOWNBURSTS WITH WINDS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS,
IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOWER 90S AREA-WIDE ASIDE FROM
COASTAL LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S THANKS
TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST HAZARDS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SINK
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW STEADILY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, WHERE BOTH
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, BUT
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE SEA BREEZES MERGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS STORM COVERAGE. LOWS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND TREND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS, FROM ABOUT 13Z-16Z,
ALONG THE COASTAL TAFS, WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR GNV ABOUT
2-3 HOURS LATER THAN COASTAL TAFS. RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS. ESTIMATED THAT HIGHEST
CHANCE OF IFR SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE FOR VQQ AND GNV THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 7 TO 12 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING FLOW FROM EAST
AND SOUTHEAST TODAY TO MORE EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE EAST WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FEET FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE, SOME OF WHICH WILL
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
RIP CURRENTS: A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST/ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASE IN WIND WAVES WILL BUILD SURF/BREAKERS TO 2-3
FEET LATER TODAY WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND SEES POTENTIAL SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-4 FEET AND
CORRESPONDING INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. FRIDAY, MORE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH COASTAL
SHOWERS MOVING ONTO THE NORTHEAST FL COAST BEFORE MIDDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN EACH AFTERNOON WITH STORM
OUTFLOWS CAUSING SUDDEN AND ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS, LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS, AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP DISPERSIONS IN THE FAIR
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BREEZIER WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH
SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG LATE OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 72 94 73 / 50 20 30 10
SSI 89 78 90 78 / 20 10 30 40
JAX 91 74 91 74 / 30 10 50 30
SGJ 89 77 89 76 / 30 10 70 40
GNV 91 72 91 73 / 50 20 60 10
OCF 91 73 92 74 / 60 20 50 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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