855
FXUS62 KJAX 191052
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
552 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WIDESPREAD FREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A LONG
DURATION HARD FREEZE IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY: DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 20-25 DEGREES
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT FREEZES AND WIDESPREAD
FROST EXTENDS TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
(999 MILLIBARS) ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, CUBA, AND
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MEANWHILE, WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE (1027 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHILE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE (1039 MILLIBARS) WAS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS THE PLAINS STATES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ALOFT...DEEP TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE NATION, WITH A POTENT REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE CONTINUE TO USHER A COLDER AND
GRADUALLY DRIER AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES AT
06Z RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 AT MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO THE MID 30S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS RANGED
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER 30S FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH
THIS FEATURE THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS ONGOING
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SLOWLY FALLING DEWPOINTS AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS
TOWARDS SUNRISE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTHEAST
GA AND NORTHEAST FL, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE AND WIDESPREAD FROST
EXTENDING TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. A LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WHICH MEETS CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A LOOSENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S TODAY, WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL REACHING THE UPPER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY THEN TIGHTEN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH LIGHT WINDS EARLY
THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH
AT INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND 5-10 MPH FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS BREEZE MAY KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
AGAIN ALLOW FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE, AS LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE DEVELOPING LIGHT BREEZE
TOWARDS SUNRISE COULD AGAIN DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO THE
20-25 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, AND ANOTHER COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGINS TO
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH A MORE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FORMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A
GRADUALLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT PRESSING IN FROM OUT OF THE
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM OUT OF THE 50S ON
TUESDAY UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY, WITH WARMER
TEMPS OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY WARM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN
TEMPS RISING FROM OUT OF THE 20S AND 30S UP INTO THE 40S AND 50S
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO BE NEAR
AND ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TOWARDS 15Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS
00Z TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS TOWARDS 10Z TUESDAY AT THE SSI AND SGJ
COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
KEEP STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE ON MONDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AND
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER OUR NEAR SHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY
DEVELOP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES: LOW TODAY AND TUESDAY
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES: LOW TODAY, MODERATE ON TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH WINDS CONSISTENTLY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND BUILDING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MINRH
VALUES WILL RANGE WITHIN THE 30S TODAY AND IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
TUESDAY WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS RETURNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FREEZES ARE EXPECTED THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. LIGHT FREEZES AND FROST MAY EXTEND TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 53 32 54 42 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 55 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 54 35 57 45 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 56 29 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 57 30 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-
023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
533-633.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-
220-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ470-
472-474.
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