699
FXUS62 KJAX 172335
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
735 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & ROUGH SURF THROUGH FRIDAY
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
A FEW ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S INLAND, TO THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR NORTHEAST FL,
INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SATURDAY
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF DURING THE PERIOD. THE OVERALL ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS THE PAST
FEW DAYS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID 20 MPH RANGE ALONG THE
COAST AND TOWARDS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. WITH A POCKET OF DRIER AIR
OVER SE GA, ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
NE FL WHERE ISOLATED CHANCES REMAIN FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
SCATTERED CHANCES OVER THE NE FL WATERS. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER SE GA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CHANCES REMAIN
LOW AT THE MOMENT SO LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF NE FL AND SE GA, WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTS AND
NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS TOWARDS THE GULF. WITH MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NE FL, AND POSSIBLY
OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA. EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THE SAME SPREAD OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY COOLER HIGHS
ALONG THE COASTS AND INLAND NE FL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH
LOWER 90S ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AND ROUGH SURF FOR AREA BEACHES FOR
SUNDAY
THE CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO THE GULF. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COVERAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PERIOD, WITH MOIST AIR CONTINUING
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC, WITH PWATS REACHING NEAR
2". BY NEXT WEEK THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING INTO MIDWEEK AS
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ALOFT. MEAN FLOW MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BACKDOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. KEPT VCSH AT SGJ ONLY, THOUGH CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECT OTHER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
VERY LITTLE OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE A BIT WEAKER
ON FRIDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA BEING AT SGJ AND GNV. WINDS
WILL STILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH THIS BEING THE
PRIMARY OPERATIONAL IMPACT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND ELEVATED SURF
COMBINE TO LEAD TO DANGEROUS SURF AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR
AREA BEACHES TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LEADING TO
MODERATE RISK FOR SE GA BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS FRIDAY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY AS THE
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS BEGIN TO LESSEN. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHER DISPERSIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO SE GA. DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN, MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR OR THE 40% MARK, BUT LOCATIONS IN FAR INTERIOR SE GA
HOVER IN THE NEAR MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO RETURN INCREASE ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, WITH COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPANDING ACROSS NE FL AND MOST
OF SE GA ON SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WINDS ARE NEAR CALM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 76 86 76 87 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 73 87 72 87 / 10 0 10 10
SGJ 76 86 75 86 / 20 20 20 20
GNV 71 89 70 88 / 0 10 0 40
OCF 71 89 71 89 / 0 10 0 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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