700
FXUS62 KJAX 090030
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STORMS HAVING LARGELY SUBSIDED FOR
THE EVENING. NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023
DRIER AIR AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT HAS DELAYED ANTICIPATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10, MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER 60S. COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023
SPC CURRENTLY HAS NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL BEGIN
FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE,
LEADING TO STORMS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT SOME MAY DEVELOP
TOWARDS HWY-301 IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. TEMPERATURE HIGHS
SHOULD ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW 90S OVER INLAND AREAS,
WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A BIT LOWER TEMPERATURE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS, WHILE COASTAL AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY...WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
TO SHIFT FURTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COLLIDE WITH
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE HWY-301, TRIGGERING A CORRIDOR OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER STORM MOTION WILL YIELD INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR, LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ADDITION TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. TEMPERATURE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, THE SEABREEZE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS FROM THE COAST TOWARDS US-301 WITH
VALUES FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND DRIFT TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AFTER
SUNDOWN SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURE LOWS FOR INLAND AREAS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S, COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS NEAR THE
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY DEVELOPING MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DOMINANT GULF SEA
BREEZE AND THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BEING PINNED TO THE COAST. SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA BY WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION LOWERING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL YIELD THE HOTTEST DAYS SO FAR
THIS YEAR WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE MID 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND LIKELY AFFECT JAX METRO SITES THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISPERSING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER NE FL
AND AFFECTING FL SITES BY AROUND 17-20Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ABOUT FROM OUT OF THE SW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
FOR ALL SITES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT THU JUN 8 2023
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. DAILY
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER THIS
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE
AREA BEACHES. MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES
RETURN ON FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 68 90 67 91 / 30 30 10 30
SSI 72 85 72 84 / 30 40 20 30
JAX 70 90 69 87 / 20 70 30 40
SGJ 71 88 71 85 / 20 80 50 40
GNV 70 92 68 90 / 10 70 30 50
OCF 70 91 71 90 / 10 70 30 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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