846
FXUS62 KJAX 301159
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
759 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HEAT ADVISORY SURROUNDING I-10 & THE COASTS TODAY. FORECAST HEAT
INDICES: 108-110F
- NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON & EVENING TSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DAILY
ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
UPDATE
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE SO FAR WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY, BUT JUST A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT NORTHWARD WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A
FEW STORMS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AT 8 AM. THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK BUT INCREASED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS MAY KEEP SOME OF THE HEAT INDICES IN
CHECK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NE FL/SE GA FROM 11AM-7PM, MAINLY
ALONG THE I-10 AND I-95 CORRIDORS FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108-110F
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL, MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AMPLIFIED EASTERN US TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS HAS PUSHED THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO SE GA AT THE SURFACE WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING ALOFT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
RAINFALL CHANCES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY, WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL SAG ALL THE WAY INTO NE FL AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW STILL BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL CHANCES THIS MORNING, WITH MOST ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO KICK OFF BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE AND I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NE FL AS THE SW
STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSE TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WAS HOPING TO BE ALL DONE WITH
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES, BUT THE PINNED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL DEW
POINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL SE
GA, WHILE THEY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS INLAND SE GA. THESE
DEW POINT TEMPS COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS STILL REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST AREAS, AND STILL EVEN SOME UPPER 90S
ACROSS INLAND SE GA WILL STILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES OF 108-110F BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA AND PORTIONS OF NE FL,
MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 AND I-10 CORRIDORS, AND HAVE POSTED A MARGINAL
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY, WHILE AREAS ACROSS ALACHUA, GILCHRIST AND
MARION COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
CHANCES TO HAVE PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F, ALONG WITH PORTIONS
OF INLAND SE GA WHERE LOWER DEW POINT TEMPS CLOSER TO 70F WILL HOLD
HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 105F THERE AS WELL. AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE SET UP FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40-60 MPH STILL POSSIBLE IN WET MICROBURST
ACTIVITY AND SLOWER STORM MOTION AND TRAINING OF STORMS OFF THE NE
GULF AND INTERACTION WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-
10 CORRIDOR WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT FROM THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ISOLATED 2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL AND
LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD PREVENT THE NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS CONVECTION BREAKS OUT
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH SE GA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS, WITH MOST ACTIVITY FINALLY COMING TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S INLAND
AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE
AN OVERALL SIMILAR SETUP TO THURSDAY WILL BE EXPECTED FRIDAY, AS THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION. SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF DRIER AIR/LOWER PWATS OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THIS
AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND TOWARDS THE
COASTS. OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT WITH RESPECT TO
STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL, HOWEVER CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST OF UP TO 40-55MPH WITH THE PRESENCE OF SOME DRIER
AIR AND THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDING WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG
WITH THE USUAL SEA BREEZES. HIGH TEMPS NUDGE DOWN A BIT FRIDAY,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL BEEN A BIT
OVER DONE WITH RESPECT TO LINGERING CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS OTHERWISE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
COMMON.
SATURDAY, THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT LIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH, AS
ANOTHER BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS APPROACHING OUR REGION WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR
A SUMMER PATTERN. HOWEVER, MAJOR MODELS DO AGREE REGARDING A "SURGE"
OF LAYER MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO SOME ADDED DIVERGENCE AND SOME
LINGERING UPPER ENERGY, AND THEREFORE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AS PWATS SURGE TO THE 2-2.3 INCH RANGE.
STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BUMP UP SLIGHTLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH SOME CELLS THANKS TO THE VERY HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
ONCE AGAIN AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED T'STORM COULD ONCE AGAIN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WEST OF I-75 ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK AS A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO
FEED TROPICAL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
OVERALL LOOKS TO REMAIN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD EACH DAY. NO SPECIFIC
DAY/SETUP STICKS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING STRONG TO SEVERE
T'STORM POTENTIAL, BUT A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT WITH THE
AMPLE LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES TREND OVERALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS A RESULT OF THE MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH SGJ, BUT STILL SOME LINGERING
STORM ACTIVITY NEARBY THERE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR NOW SO VCTS OR AT
LEAST VCSH WARRANTED FOR THE DUVAL COUNTY TAFS THROUGH MORNING.
OTHERWISE SOME LOW CIGS AT VQQ FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND EXPECT TO CONTINUE TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL NE FL TAF SITES
AND ONLY PROB30 GROUPS AT SSI FOR IFR/MVFR CONDS IN TSRA
ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
RETURN LATER THIS EVENING, BUT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR GNV TO NEAR OR JUST PAST MIDNIGHT.
MARINE
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE LOCAL SEA
BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AT NE FL AND SE GA BEACHES WITH
SURF/BREAKERS OF ONLY 1-2 FEET DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT NEAR I-10 & THE COAST TODAY
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE REST OF THE WEEK
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DESPITE STRONGER FLOW
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST FL, BETTER MIXING OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. MINRH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 40% TODAY OVER FAR
INTERIOR GA WITH SOME DRIER AIR, BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE ANY
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE APPROACHES THE
AREA SATURDAY AND PERSISTS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS AS WELL AS
ERRATIC WINDS IN/NEARBY ANY STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 97 72 95 73 / 20 20 40 20
SSI 95 75 93 77 / 50 30 40 30
JAX 95 74 93 73 / 80 30 70 30
SGJ 93 74 92 74 / 70 40 60 60
GNV 91 74 92 73 / 80 70 50 50
OCF 90 74 91 74 / 90 70 60 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-038-120-124-125-132-137-138-
220-225-232-233-237-322-325-333-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ152>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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