849
FXUS62 KJAX 181740
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS WEEKEND. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
INLAND EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INCREASE RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SET FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10
- GUSTY COASTAL & HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
- RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES REST OF TODAY
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER & CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITS TO THE EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ADVANCES TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TO
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SFC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 6-12 MPH MOST AREAS UNDER PERSISTENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS PWATS FROM ABOUT
0.7 TO 1 INCH. RECORD HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S,
WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MID 90S POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL AREAS
ARE EXPERIENCING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SO ARE LIMITED TO HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE DROUGHT AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES REST OF
TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE, WITH MEAN WINDS EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TO A
DOMINATE SOUTHWEST OR SLIGHTLY WEST DIRECTION AND BECOME LIGHT.
SKIES WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MOSTLY
HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME OCCASIONAL STRATOCU DEVELOPING. PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARD I-75 EARLY IN THE MORNING GIVEN
MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, LEADING TO PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
READINGS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
DEPARTED FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO TREND DOWN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD CLOSER
TO THE REGION TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY,
READINGS WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL THEN BE BELOW
NORMAL THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGING.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED INLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS PERIOD, WITH READINGS RETURNING TO
ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. FOR SFC WINDS,
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FOR JAX, VQQ, AND GNV BUT REST
OF THE TAFS ARE SOUTHEAST OR WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. JAX AND VQQ WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND SHIFT
AFTER 20Z-21Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
04Z, WITH A COOL FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW NEAR 5-10 MPH BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST
PROBABLY AFTER 16Z.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS A DRY COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST REST OF
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA WATERS, AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
MODERATE RISK OF RIPS TODAY THOUGH THE SURF HEIGHTS ARE ON THE
LOW SIDE OF ABOUT 2 FEET PER REPORTS AND NWPS. PEAK WAVE PERIODS
REMAIN TO BE ABOUT 9 SECONDS FROM ABOUT 075 TO 090 DEGREE. A SMALL
WINDOW OF WIND WAVE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE STRENGTHENS. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY DUE TO OFFSHORE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH RISK OF RIPS AND POTENTIAL
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
STRONG NE WIND SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA..
- MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT INTERIOR SE GA SUNDAY MINRH
LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND BELOW
20 PERCENT INLAND SE GA
- MINRH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT INLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
AND THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MAINLY DRY, BUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ELEVATED
AND GUSTY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
ADVECT SOUTH INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
DRY CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND AREAS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG INLAND TONIGHT. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND AREAS MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 79 47 80 / 0 20 0 0
SSI 67 83 59 73 / 0 20 10 0
JAX 64 87 56 77 / 0 10 0 0
SGJ 65 88 63 75 / 0 10 10 0
GNV 61 89 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 62 88 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-
236-322-422-425-522.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ162.
MARINE...NONE.
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