122
FXUS62 KJAX 090520
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
120 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY & FRIDAY. STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR
ALL OF NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK BEACHES THURSDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- HEAT ADVISORY AREA-WIDE TODAY
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ANOTHER HOT DAY AHEAD TODAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES
TO BUILD. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 105-111 DEGREE RANGE, PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FROM
11AM-8PM. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE JUST BELOW
PREVIOUS RECORD HIGHS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE LOWER TODAY DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR IN PLACE, HOWEVER CAMS CONTINUE INDICATE A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MARION/PUTNAM/ST. JOHNS/FLAGLER
COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TOWARDS COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPERATURES FORECAST, LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
- HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- LOWER CONVECTIVE CHANCES FRIDAY, BUT INCREASED CHANCE SATURDAY
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FL ON FRIDAY WILL NUDGE FURTHER
NORTH INTO SATURDAY WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE POCKETS
PWATS THAT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 1.6 INCHES ON FRIDAY. WE DO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL ON SATURDAY SO APPEARS
WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY, AT LEAST FOR
NORTHEAST FL. AT THIS TIME, WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO ABOUT
10-20 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND 20-55 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST FL, AND LOWEST OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA. THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY OVER
INLAND NORTHEAST FL AS SHOWN BY RECENT HREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE.
STEERING FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB CONTINUES TO BE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ON SATURDAY, AS THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE
DRIFTS NORTH, FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTH, EVEN SOUTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST FL, BUT STILL WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS HEAT RISK BOTH DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, EVEN AT THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. MAX TEMP
MAY HIT CENTURY MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 102-110
DEGREES BOTH DAYS, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FL AND THE SOUTHEAST GA. A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT THROW
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS THAT WE MAY SEE MORE
HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY, AND OVERALL MORE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD:
= SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD
- NOT AS HOT MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHILE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SRN GA ON SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROBABLY PUSHING
INTO SOUTHEAST GA BY THEN OR AT LEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHILE RIDGING PUSHES WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN FL. THE
FRONT LOOKS ILL-DEFINED BY WEDNESDAY AS PRELIMINARY DATA SUGGESTS IT
WILL BE DIFFUSE OVER SOUTH GA. UNSETTLED WEATHER EACH DAY WITH RAIN
LIKELY CHANCES (AT 55-70 PERCENT) SUNDAY, MAYBE UP TO 60-80 PERCENT
MONDAY. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED FLOODING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY THOUGH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER SHOULD HELP TO
MINIMIZE SOME OF THE IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES AREA-WIDE AS MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE AND STORM CHANCES WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OTHER THAN
TYPICAL MVFR FOG AT VQQ FROM AROUND 07-11Z. SW FLOW DEVELOPS AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE SEA BREEZE IMPACTING SSI AND SGJ IN THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO SGJ AND SSI
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR SGJ BUT
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE NEAR SSI, HAVE LEFT VCSH FOR NOW.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND SURGES FROM THE SOUTH TO
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WIND SPEEDS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECT LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK DUE TO FAIRLY LOW SURF CONDITIONS FROM PREVAILING OFFSHORE
FLOW. SOME ENHANCED POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN
BEACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM MAYPORT NORTHWARD DUE TO STRONGER
SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY. SURF REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2
FEET RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-10 FROM TODAY
- THROUGH SATURDAY
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAILING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSION NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-10 EXPECTED EACH DAY. DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, MINRH
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, AND AT TIMES, AT A DISTANCE DUE TO OUTFLOWS.
CLIMATE
SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TO GET TO THE CENTURY MARK TODAY WITH PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE
AT ABOUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THESE PROBABILITIES LOOK A BIT HIGHER FOR
FRIDAY.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE CURRENT FORECAST:
JULY 9TH:
KJAX: 101/1879
KGNV: 99/1932
KAMG: 100/1986
KCRG: 101/2016
JULY 10TH:
KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1914
KAMG: 99/1980
KCRG: 99/2016
JULY 11TH:
KGNV: 100/1900
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/1998
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 97 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 10
SSI 97 80 97 80 / 10 0 10 0
JAX 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 97 78 96 78 / 10 0 10 0
GNV 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
364.
MARINE...NONE.
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