875
FXUS62 KJAX 080655
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO 100-105 DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAKENING ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WAS EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
FL. MEANWHILE, A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TOWARDS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS, WITH ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER (1022 MILLIBARS) BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE O THIS FRONT. ALOFT...RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WAS DEFLECTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE PWATS
WERE AROUND 1 INCH, WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, WHERE PWATS WERE RISING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. MOSTLY MID
AND HIGH ALTITUDE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WAS OVERSPREADING
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL,
WHILE FAIR SKIES PREVAIL FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10.
TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS TAKING PLACE, WHILE
THICKER CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE WAS GENERALLY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS OF 07Z. DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE.
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL FLATTEN AND SINK
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY, ALLOWING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT
WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO ENTER THE DEEP SOUTH. DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS APPROACHING TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, WHERE PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON,
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE INLAND MOVING GULF SEA BREEZE
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A SPARK TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS AND
LIVE OAK. THICKER MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR THESE AREAS TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD ADVECT SOME OF THIS THICKER MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FILTERED
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD STILL ALLOW INLAND HIGHS TO CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 90S, WHILE AN EARLY DEVELOPING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CRASH TO THE LOW AND MID 60S INLAND, KEEPING HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN CHECK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DECELERATING
OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH A DRIER AIR MASS PRECEDING THIS WEDGE THAT WILL
ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, DROPPING
PWATS BELOW 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN SUWANNEE
VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT THICK MID
AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO OUR
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S INLAND, WHILE LOW TO MID 70S PREVAIL AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
PREVAILING FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS BUILDING WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DEVELOPMENTS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA, AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MIDWEEK WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS
OVER INLAND AREAS RISING FROM OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
TUESDAY UP INTO THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S
OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COASTLINE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
- SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY RETURNS, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTHEAST MOVES EASTWARD AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS INCREASE AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. NEAR TO AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WITH THE INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO VALUES OF UP TO ABOUT 100 TO 105
FAHRENHEIT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
ON MONDAY AT VQQ. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY REDEVELOP AT
VQQ AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
5 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT THE SSI AND SGJ COASTAL
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS TOWARDS 14Z BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BY 16Z, FOLLOWED BY
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 20Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS
TOWARDS 03Z TUESDAY, WHILE WINDS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS
DIMINISH BELOW 5 KNOTS.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ITS AXIS ACROSS
OUR LOCAL WATERS, KEEPING UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY ACROSS
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN NEAR BERMUDA BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, CREATING A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS, ALLOWING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL OF 9-10 SECONDS TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE, WHICH WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR
INLAND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REFORM TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR SHIFTING
BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A WIDELY ISOLATED STORMS
INLAND AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE CRUISES WELL INLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REFORM TOWARDS BERMUDA WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW MIDWEEK
AND WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND STORMS, THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILS FRIDAY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE STAYS PINNED NEAR I-95 TO
US-17 CORRIDORS.
MINRH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT TODAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 71 87 69 / 20 10 10 0
SSI 87 74 86 77 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 90 70 89 73 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 88 74 87 75 / 10 0 0 10
GNV 92 70 90 71 / 10 0 10 0
OCF 93 70 90 73 / 0 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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