495
FXUS62 KJAX 210406
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1206 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG INLAND SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
- DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THIS WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG INLAND FROM I-10 NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SE GA
- HOT INLAND WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING INTO THE 60S OVER INLAND AREAS WILL SUPPORT PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG FROM THE I-
10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SE GA, AND WHILE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED, SPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE POSTED
TOWARDS SUNRISE.
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER INLAND
AREAS WITH PWATS PUSHING INTO THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING INTO THE SE US STATES AND STALLING NW OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
STILL PUSH WELL INLAND AND MEET THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE 301 CORRIDOR AND BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE I-
75 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SE GA. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S INLAND WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100F PRIOR
TO CONVECTION STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 80S
FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
TONIGHT: ISOLATED EVENING STORMS INLAND FADE AND DRIFT BACK TOWARDS
THE ATLANTIC COAST AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL CONVECTION DONE BY
MIDNIGHT. FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS
SLIGHTLY MILDER IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, ALONG WITH LOWER CHANCES OF FOG FORMATION,
EXCEPT IN ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL LATER ON TODAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WEST OF I-95.
PATTERN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING LESS INHIBITED ON FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DIMINISHES AND PREVAILING FLOW SHIFTS
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, BRINGING IN MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
PWAT VALUES POTENTIALLY RISING TO LEVELS BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS REACHING UP INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER
70S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR AREAS NEAR THE
SHORELINE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND,
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA-WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK FOR INLAND AREAS, PRIMARILY IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING
THIS PERIOD, INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S, AND EAST COAST HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
PATCHY FOG MAY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KJAX, KVQQ
AND KGNV, OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ONLY KGNV
HAVING A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OF INCLUDING VCSH AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE REACHES THE LOCATION IN THE 20Z-24Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS MAY
MEET SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT CONTINUES TODAY AND LIKELY TO STAY THAT
WAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURF OF ABOUT 2-3 FT. LONGSHORE CURRENT SHOULD
BE DIRECTED NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A BUMP UP IN THE SURF GOING INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THAT MAY NECESSITATE HIGH RISK. SURF AVERAGING
AROUND 3 FEET TO POSSIBLE 4 FT, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST FL THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING AND SUFFICIENT SOUTHEASTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GENERATE GENERALLY GOOD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO
MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. BY THE
WEEKEND, INCREASE CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK. PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 69 90 70 / 30 20 80 50
SSI 84 75 87 78 / 10 10 20 30
JAX 91 72 92 75 / 20 10 30 20
SGJ 89 73 90 76 / 10 10 20 10
GNV 94 72 94 73 / 40 30 40 20
OCF 94 71 93 74 / 40 30 30 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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