339
FXUS62 KJAX 091855
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2022
...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS NORTH OF I-10 THIS
EVENING...
..BUILDING HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
DIURNAL AIRMASS AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE
OFFSHORE. BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES HAVE BEGUN TO
PUSH INLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE BETWEEN I-75 AND US 301
BETWEEN 6-9PM THIS EVENING. PER THE LATEST GOES PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY, A NARROW RIBBON OF DRY AIR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
MODIFIED SAHARAN AIR IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
AND HAS STUNTED CONVECTION THERE. THIS RIBBON WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTH AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS IT DOES SO.
CONVERSELY, STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO COMBAT THE DRY AIR WILL HAVE
ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. DEEPER MOISTURE
EXISTS ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THAT IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SEA BREEZES MERGE THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS (40-50 MPH), BLINDING DOWNPOURS, NUISANCE FLOODING, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT, REMNANT OUTFLOWS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEFORE ACTIVITY FADES
COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED GROUND-
FOG ACROSS INLAND SE GA.
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
WEDNESDAY, DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL RETROGRADE CLOSER TO
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY, A DRIER AIRMASS (SAHARAN
AIR LAYER; SAL) WILL LIFT UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LIMITING
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SOUTH OF I-10. SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOMEX AND IS
PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE PORTIONS OF NE FL NORTH OF I-10 AS WELL
AS SE GA. THE FLOW WILL TREND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND FAVOR A
QUICK INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE GOMEX SEA BREEZE WHILE THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES IN A BIT SLOWER. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
A SEA BREEZE MERGER BETWEEN US 301 AND I-95. HIGHEST THREAT WITH
CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG DOWNBURSTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION WILL FADE
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THURSDAY, AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE INCOMING
TROUGH DIGS INTO GA, WITH PREVAILING FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER, WHICH SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY ST JOHNS COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.
CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WESTWARD SHIFTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP RIDGING AND DEEPER MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARD THE MID 90S AREAWIDE (INCLUDING THE
BEACHES) BY THURSDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. PEAK HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL FALL BETWEEN 102-107 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS AND BROAD TROUGHING ENGULFS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE INITIAL DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT INTO SE GA FRIDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN FL BY
SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING
NORTH AND DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE CONVECTION AREAWIDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE POST-
FRONTAL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND DIMINISH
CONVECTIVE THREATS. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SEA BREEZE MAY SUPPORT A STRONG,
PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE, THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HEIGHT FALLS, CLOUD COVER,
AND DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL MUTE LOCAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
CAPPED IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY]
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. GNV AND VQQ HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A STORM THIS
AFTERNOON, INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS FROM THE SE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT GNV WHERE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET, ENDING AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 03Z. VQQ COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY EDGE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY CROSS INTO THE GA WATERS
BY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NIGHTLY WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED AS
THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS. A PERIOD OF BREEZY EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL, ONSHORE SWELL ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWERING RISK IS EXPECTED AS FLOW
TURNS OFFSHORE THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 93 72 93 72 / 40 50 30 50 20
SSI 78 90 78 92 77 / 20 20 10 30 30
JAX 73 93 74 94 73 / 20 40 20 60 20
SGJ 76 91 75 93 76 / 10 20 10 30 20
GNV 73 93 73 94 72 / 30 40 20 40 10
OCF 74 93 74 94 74 / 30 30 20 40 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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