862
FXUS62 KJAX 252349
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
749 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY & LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY
- SMOKE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL. SMOKE
WILL CAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY | MONITOR USING AIRNOW.GOV
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT & SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING
IN OVER THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE WEST, WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG DIURNAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THAT MAY FORM TODAY WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE LOWER 80S
FOR AREAS ALONG THE SHORELINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID 60S FOR
AREAS NEARER TO THE COAST. POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD DECKS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENTS TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE SUNDAY, AND BE A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY, THEN BELOW MONDAY AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GA WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION SATURDAY. A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, BUT GREATER CHANCES SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
THREAT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOME VCSH NEAR MOST TERMINALS AND
SOME -RA THAT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH SSI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS AT
THIS TIME. SOME PATCHY FU IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR SSI DUE TO THE
LARGE WILDFIRE TO THE WEST, THOUGH NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH VSBY
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ONCE AGAIN NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME. THIS
ALSO GOES FOR ANY TS POTENTIAL, AS PROBABILITY IS ONLY ABOUT 10%
CURRENTLY. WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDINGLY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY, AND WILL CROSS
OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS FRONT
STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY DUE TO BREEZY SPEEDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF HTE
BOUNDARY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOWER-END MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY
DESPITE THE FAIRLY LOW WAVE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 2 FEET. A LOWER RISK IS
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THOUGH STILL MAY BE SOME LOCALLY MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK BASED ON NWPS FORECASTS. STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY BRING A MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR OUR LOCAL BEACHES ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
-AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY, MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION MID WEEK, AND YET ANOTHER NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS COMING WEEK,
EXCEPT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 62 85 63 82 / 60 40 20 10
SSI 66 80 66 73 / 40 50 30 10
JAX 63 85 65 77 / 20 50 30 10
SGJ 64 85 65 79 / 10 40 40 20
GNV 60 87 64 85 / 10 40 20 20
OCF 61 87 64 87 / 0 30 20 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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