094
FXUS62 KJAX 090635
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE,
HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED RAINFALL CHANCES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS STALLED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST GA
WHILE IMPULSES ALOFT AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND THEN MAY STAY TO EDGE A BIT
SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
HELPS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OVER SOUTH GA. PREDOMINANT FLOW IS
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE (PWATS ABOUT 1.5
INCHES), A LOW-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR 20-30 PERCENT IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE MORNING, WITH MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
PROBABLY LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF PER
CAM MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WELL UNDERWAY BY
NOON-1 PM, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, MOSTLY TIED TO THE EAST COASTAL AREAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, AND THEN ALSO NEAR THE
I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. FORECAST MLCAPE OF ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AT 500 MB NEAR -11C AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF UP TO 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT A LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, WITH 1 INCH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS IS EAST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT JACKSONVILLE BEACH TO INTERLACHEN TO MIDDLE PART
OF THE OCALA NATL FOREST. THIS IS AN AREA SPC SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TODAY. ONE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TODAY IS
THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION, SINCE WE MAY BE TEND TO BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY FORECAST MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, WITH ABOUT 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE BETTER
HEATING AND LESS CLOUDS ARE INDICATED.
FOR TONIGHT, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW OVER
LA. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTH GULF OR
DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM, OUR DEEP LAYER WINDS
WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN
MORE MOISTURE. AS FAR AS CONVECTION, EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MOSTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN ZONES WHERE OUTFLOWS AND THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING BOUNDARIES WITH SOME CONVECTION
PROBABLY ALSO NEAR THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST GA. WHILE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL WANE OVERNIGHT, THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST, IMPULSES ALOFT, AND THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO THE EVENING HOURS, REBOUNDING BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.6"-2.0" AID IN CONTINUING AND INCREASING THE
WET WEATHER TREND. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AND WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZES
CONVERGE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE DEEPER/STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO THE 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAREST TO THE COAST. SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY INTO SOUTH GEORGIA
TUESDAY, BEFORE PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. AS THE
RAIN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH
THE ESTIMATED TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FROM THROUGH MONDAY AROUND
4-6". DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, LOWERING RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10% FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL AT THE START
OF THE WEEK AS RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES IMPEDE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS INCREASE TUESDAY TO SEASONAL AVERAGE, INCREASING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
IN THE 60S WITH SOME COASTAL AREAS TOUCHING INTO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR OVER THE TERMINALS AT THIS WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE A CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY AT VQQ, AND AT
GNV THE PROBABILITIES FOR IFR HAS INCREASED OR REMAINED NEARLY
STEADY FROM ABOUT 08Z TO 12Z. THESE CONDITIONS END BY 13Z. BY MID
TO LATE DAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN PLACE NOW. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS
PROBABLE AFTER 00Z/01Z TIME FRAME SO LEFT IN VCSH/VCTS, WITH CHANCES
THEY WE MAY NEED PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUP AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT, TURNING SOUTHEAST
AT SSI AND SGJ DURING THE AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HEADLINES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY, TURNING SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEARSHORE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. A BUMP
UP IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA OVER THE GULF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS
FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE AND MAY
EVENTUALLY TREND UP TO 3-5 FT OR 4-6 FT MON-TUE. MAIN NEAR TERM
CONCERN IS THE PROSPECTS FOR T-STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.
RIP CURRENTS: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IF NOT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE RISK BY MONDAY DUE TO SOME STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. SURF
UP TO 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
MODEL ENSEMBLES STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 3-6 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EVENTUAL
LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR OF COASTAL NE FL DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF DAILY
CONVECTION WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND STORMS BEING SENT
BACK TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THEY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER 5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 10 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE TIME THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WRAPS UP
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 65 77 63 / 30 50 90 70
SSI 83 70 77 68 / 60 60 90 80
JAX 87 68 82 66 / 60 50 90 70
SGJ 87 70 81 68 / 60 60 90 80
GNV 87 67 84 66 / 60 40 90 60
OCF 89 69 85 68 / 50 40 90 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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