467
FXUS62 KJAX 281725
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- LOCALLY DENSE EARLY MORNING FOG FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY & NORTH
CENTRAL FL
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS & INCREASING MARINE & COASTAL HAZARDS BEGIN
TODAY. WIND ADVISORY FOR 40-45 MPH GUSTS FOR COASTAL AREAS & INLAND
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10. GALE WARNING FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS & HIGH SURF AT ALL AREA BEACHES
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY: 20-25% & NE WINDS OF15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA-WIDE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH TONIGHT:
- STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. WIND ADVISORY FOR
FREQUENT 40-50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL/COASTAL SE GA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
- GALE WARNING FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF AT ALL AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-25%
AND NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THIS AFTERNOON: STRONG SURGE OF NE WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAVE DEVELOPED AREA WIDE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 35 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH
POSSIBLE, WHILE ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND US 301 CORRIDOR
THROUGH INLAND NE FL, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 25-30 MPH
WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA. ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY NE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME
CLOUDY ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THE NE FL
COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOWARDS SUNSET THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT: THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE
THIS EVENING, BUT THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO LESSEN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO 20-25G35 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN, AND TO AROUND 15G25 MPH OVER INLAND LOCATIONS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL START TO KICK OFF MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE NE FL COASTAL WATERS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, BUT ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA WITH
LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S, WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS INLAND
SE GA WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S THERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS SUNDAY - MONDAY NIGHT:
- ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NE FL MONDAY AFTERNOON
FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY AS PREVAILING
FLOW SHIFTS EASTERLY AS LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING MOVES TOWARD
BERMUDA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY SEND SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS INTO THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS NE FL MAY
PROMOTE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INLAND CLOSE TO OR WEST OF I-75 BUT WILL
HINGE ON HOW FAR THE GULF BREEZE CAN PUSH AGAINST THE EASTERLY FLOW.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
NE FL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
AFTER A COOL SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WILL TREND WARMER MONDAY AND RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S INLAND. WITH ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT,
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING BUT LIGHTER TO CALM
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BETTER FOG CHANCES DURING THE
EARLY HOURS TUESDAY AM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TUESDAY - FRIDAY:
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TREND
- NIGHTLY FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF INLAND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS BACK TO AN EARLY SUMMER-ESK ONE AS
PERSISTENT LOWER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEEK ONWARD INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
LAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD LEADING TO PROLONGED
WARMING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE MID LEVELS AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.
AS RIDGING STACKS UP OFFSHORE, RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH DAY-
OVER-DAY HIGHS RISING THROUGH THE 80S AND POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY, HE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT PUSHES
INLAND AMID SEASONALLY HIGH MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25-1.4
INCHES (EQUATING TO THE 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE). DESPITE THE
MOISTURE, MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW A MENTIONABLE LEVEL, FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS, UNTIL LOW TO
MEDIUM GRADE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FRIDAY, FOSTERING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
NIGHTLY FOG EPISODES. SEA FOG IS BECOMING LESS OF CONCERN, GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR, AS SEA SURFACE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE TERMINALS
FOLLOWING THE NE WIND SURGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS NE WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
KNOTS AT TIMES. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCT AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG NE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY FADE TO 15-20G25-30 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT,
THEN FURTHER TO AROUND 15G20-25 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
SURGE OF NORTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA, GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT, WITH THIS
FEATURE SHIFTING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. COASTAL TROUGHING
WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ITS AXIS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING
ELEVATED SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS / HIGH SURF:
LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THE SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BREAKERS BUILD TO 8-10 FEET AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BREAKERS WILL BUILD TO
THE 6-8 FOOT RANGE AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT, AND THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR
ANYONE WHO VENTURES INTO THE SURF ZONE THROUGH MONDAY. SURF
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT WEEK AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
PREVAIL.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST, BUT
SO FAR THE LATEST STORM SURGE GUIDANCE (PETSS) IS KEEPING PEAK HIGH
TIDE WATER LEVELS AT ACTION STAGE (WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW 2 FT MHHW)
FIRE WEATHER
- RED FLAG WARNING NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE DUE TO CRITICAL
WIND AND VERY DRY FUELS
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WINDY, DRY COOL FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MANY DISTRICTS, SPECIFICALLY WHERE THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY EXISTS (EXPANDED TO OCALA NF).
HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL BENEATH THICK STRATUS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FL WHILE SUNNIER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST GA (NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS) WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CRITICAL WEATHER AMID THE VOLATILE, DROUGHT-STRICKEN FUEL LOADS
DURING 1500-1900 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WINDS, NEW AND
EXISTING FIRES ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE ARE LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC IN HOW
THEY BEHAVE.
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO
BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH FOR ALL
AREAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MONDAY, TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY. NO FOG EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 46 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 66 56 68 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 67 54 73 58 / 10 10 10 0
SGJ 68 60 72 61 / 20 20 10 10
GNV 75 56 77 58 / 0 10 10 0
OCF 77 59 77 60 / 0 10 10 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR FLZ024-030-031-
038-124-125-132-136>138-140-225-232-233-236-237-240-325-
333-340-425-433-533-633.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ153-154-165-
166.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151-162-163-250.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ472-474.
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