692
FXUS62 KJAX 270519
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1219 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COOL & DRY CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE END OF. BE VERY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS
- POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZE/FROST FRIDAY & SATURDAY MORNING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
TRACKING THROUGH NE FL WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM THE NE GULF PUSHING INTO THE I-75
CORRIDOR NEAR GNV/OCF, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERRUNNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW TEMPS
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE IN THE 7AM-8AM TIME FRAME
IN THE 40S ACROSS SE GA AND 50S ACROSS NE FL.
TODAY...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS IN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS BRISK NW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ONLY A SMALL BUMP UPWARDS IN MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR SE GA AND MID/UPPER 60S
FOR NE FL, ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGH TEMPS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE REGION AND NW TO NORTH
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH INLAND, BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO 10-15
MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SKIES BECOME CLEAR AND DESPITE THE
ELEVATED WINDS, EXPECT A LIGHT ADVECTIVE FREEZE EVENT ACROSS INLAND
SE GA AND INLAND NE FL, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE US 301
CORRIDOR, AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30F ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND LOWER 30S AND BRIEF SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS INLAND NE FL. HAVE TWEAKED LOW TEMPS BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE DUE TO THE VERY DRY SOILS OVER INLAND AREAS DUE TO THE LACK
OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL BELOW
GUIDANCE UNDER CLEAR SKY REGIMES, ALONG WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE
NW TO N WINDS TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY NOT EXPECTING
MUCH FROST FORMATION DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S TOWARDS MORNING AS WELL, STILL LIKELY
JUST ABOVE ANY COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOSER TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN, EXPECTING LOW TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S, AND AROUND 40F AT BEACHFRONT
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COLD, DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN COLDER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SE GA. A LIGHT BREEZE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
BUT BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ALONG INLAND SE GA TOWARDS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION OF NE FL, ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, AND FINALLY ALONG
THE COAST LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S. A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NEAR CALM
WINDS AND LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY
OVER INLAND SE GA.
A SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC, SUPPORTING LIGHT TROUGHING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE SHIFT IN
WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-10. SIMILAR PATTERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY AS INLAND LOCATIONS OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION
WILL BE IN THE 40S, WHILE NORTH CENTRAL FL COUNTIES WILL BE IN THE
50S, AND MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST WHICH WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG NORTH
CENTRAL FL AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE WE COULD SEE CHANCES
INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. BY MIDWEEK, DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A
DRY COOL AIRMASS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS NE FL WILL STILL BRING THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS (VCSH) TO GNV ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10G15 KNOTS
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY
THIN AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 00Z, WITH SKC AND LIGHT NW
WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH 06Z EXPECTED.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE TODAY AND FRIDAY
NE FL MODERATE TODAY AND FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
A DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW (15-
25 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS SE GA. THIS AFTERNOON, LOW MIN RH VALUES AND BREEZY TO GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN SE GA AND NE FL. DISPERSIONS ANTICIPATED TO BE IN
THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE STRONG HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY, THE LINGERING DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MINRH VALUES IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE
OVER INLAND SE GA AND INLAND NE FL. ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
AT TIMES. DISPERSIONS ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE GENERALLY GOOD RANGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 29 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 38 58 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 35 59 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 38 59 45 69 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 34 60 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 35 60 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-
322-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page