188  
FNUS73 KDVN 171528  
FWSDVN  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHOP PILE...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL  
1028 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON JULY 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES AT (563) 386-3815.  
   
..EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH  
AFTER 2 PM.  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING  
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE, TODAY MARKS THE  
BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS  
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO  
30 MPH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX -GFDI- DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR  
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS OR ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND. PLEASE  
MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY  
CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................5  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...AFTER 2 PM.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...103.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 5 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
WIND SHIFT..........NONE PRIOR TO STORMS.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3000 FT AGL  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 16 MPH.  
GFDI................LOW.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........19 30 76 74  
WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR NONE  
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 50 10  
LAL.............M M M M  
TEMP............87 90 94 94  
RH..............61 56 51 51  
APARNT TMP (F)..94 97 103 103  
20 FT WIND......S 4 S 6 S 6 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 7 8 10  
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 3 S 4 S 4 S 5  
EYE LVL WND GST.4 5 6 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....3800 5400 4500 2900  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 12 S 15 S 16  
GFDI............0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT 7 PM.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...103.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.  
WIND SHIFT..........NONE PRIOR TO STORMS.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH.  
GFDI................LOW.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........76 56 51 43 48 21  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 30 40 30  
LAL.............M M M M M M  
TEMP............93 87 83 80 79 78  
RH..............54 63 74 82 85 88  
APARNT TMP (F)..103 94 90 84 79 78  
20 FT WIND......S 6 S 6 S 6 S 7 S 6 S 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 8 10 8 10  
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 4 S 4 S 4 S 5 S 4 S 5  
EYE LVL WND GST.6 5 6 8 6 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 300 300 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 15 SE 15 SE 16 E 15 E 13 SE 12  
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 3 3 3 3  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................3  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...IF RAIN IS ONGOING AT SUNRISE, ENDING AROUND  
MID-DAY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...111.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
WIND SHIFT..........NONE IF NO STORMS PRESENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-4100 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 25  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
GFDI................LOW.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........29 44 31 23 17 11  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 10 10 0 0  
LAL.............M M M M M M  
TEMP............78 81 86 92 96 97  
RH..............85 71 64 56 52 50  
APARNT TMP (F)..78 85 94 102 108 110  
20 FT WIND......S 7 SW 9 S 10 SW 11 SW 13 SW 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 17 20 22 23 24  
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5 SW 7 S 8 SW 8 SW 10 SW 10  
EYE LVL WND GST.8 13 15 17 17 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 700 1700 2400 3200 4100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 SW 17 SW 25 SW 24 SW 23 SW 24  
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 5 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...PIERCE  
REQUESTED BY...ERIK ACKER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1912360.0/DVN  
.DELDT 07/17/19  
 
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