134
FXUS63 KGLD 120450
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH REMAIN FORECASTED THURSDAY; PORTIONS
OF THE AREA UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
- POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 752 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2024
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING THIS EVENING ABOVE 15%,
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR TONIGHT. NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2024
WESTERN TROUGH IS STARTING TO DEEPEN AS THE WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY
INCREASED AT THE KGLD ASOS GUSTING TO 29 KNOTS THUS FAR AS OF 18Z.
THE RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK WIND WISE; THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THE RH VALUES CAN FALL TO THE 15% CRITICAL
THRESHOLD. EVEN IF THEY FAIL TO VERY HIGH TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE
DANGER WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
FUELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 90TH+ PERCENTILE NBM
WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH FURTHER
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 15% OR LESS RH
VALUES CAN OCCUR. LINGERING CLOUD FROM MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS YUMA
COUNTY CURRENTLY HAS ME A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT NOT ENOUGH RECOVERY
CAN OCCUR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WISE BUT WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. RAP 700-500MB MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHICH STILL MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIT AND MISS HIGH BASED STORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS LEAVING THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT.
THIS EVENING A SUBTLE WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION; THIS JET WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
DRY AIR WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE SO DO HAVE
SOME QUESTIONS IF THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS WILL COME FROM
1) OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS 2) DISSIPATION FROM THE STORMS 3)
WITH STORMS THEMSELVES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY FAVORED
ACROSS YUMA COUNTY SO HAVE NUDGED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
INTO THE CHANCE (25%) CATEGORY FOR RAINFALL.
THURSDAY STILL CONTINUES TO PRESENT A TRICKY FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, MEANWHILE FROM THE SE A BELT OF STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS FROM THE GULF MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY LINE ACROSS THE
REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THIS STILL LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE DRY LINE AS FINITE DETAILS AS WHEN THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE BELT OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE THE OVERALL DETERMINING FACTOR OF WHERE
THE DRY LINE SETS UP.
BASED ON RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND HREF
SUITE CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT DRY LINE WILL SET UP ALONG/NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 385 CORRIDOR IN E COLORADO. ALSO IN SIMILAR SW FLOW SET
UPS DRYER AIR TYPICALLY DOES PUSH A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL. AS A RESULT WILL UPGRADE YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED PUSH OF DRY AIR A BIT FURTHER EAST AND
THE FEEDBACK FROM FUEL PARTNERS THAT FUELS ACROSS NW KANSAS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD WILL ALSO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE
HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR (DUNDY SOUTH THROUGH GREELEY COUNTIES) TO A
RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON THE PARTNER FEEDBACK, PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE
EXTREME CATEGORY. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INHERITED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH (HITCHCOCK SOUTH THROUGH WICHITA COUNTIES) WILL
LEAVE AS A WATCH FOR THIS PACKAGE AS UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL SHIFTS OF THE DRY LINE.
AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY IT STILL CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A CONDITIONAL THREAT. LAPSE RATES INCLUDING THE
2-2.5KM REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DUST AND FOR DUST TO BE TRAPPED IN A
LAYER. HOWEVER THE CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL BE IF THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO GET THE DUST LOFTED IN THE FIRST PLACE AS WINDS ARE
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BELOW IN OFFICE RESEARCH CRITERIA. AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PROLONGED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE DRY CONDITIONS DO THINK THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME TO GET LOFTED ESPECIALLY FROM OPEN
FIELDS SO HAVE LEFT THE DUST MENTION ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA.
THURSDAY EVENING, STILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SUSPICIONS THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE EVENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z-06Z AS A 3-5MB
PRESSURE RISE MOVES ACROSS E COLORADO. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED AS
WELL ON THE HREF MEAN WINDS CONTINUING TO KEEP 35-45 MPH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME LOCALIZED 50+ MPH WINDS. GFS AND RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DO SHOW SOME 60+ MPH WINDS 1500-2000 FEET
OFF THE GROUND. HOWEVER WITH THAT FLOW MOVING IN AROUND THE TIME THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP MY CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT 60+ MPH
WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR IM THINKING THE
SHERMAN, KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (KS), RAWLINS VICINITY WOULD BE
FAVORED BASED OFF DESI PROBABILITIES AND HREF WINDS. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER 1AM MT, ALBEIT STILL BEING BREEZY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2024
BROADLY SPEAKING, MODEL CERTAINTY OF A E CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN THAT
PROMOTES A W CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF. BENEATH THE E PERIPHERY AND
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION THERE ARE SHOWER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THEN
SEEMINGLY TURNING DRIER. AN AIR OF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN A FASTER, LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AS PREFERRED BY THE GEFS VERSUS A SLOW, STRONGER
PATTERN AGREED UPON BETWEEN THE ECENS / UKMET / GEPS, THE LATTER OF
WHICH IS THE STRONGEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. THEN THERE'S THE REMNANTS
OF FRANCINE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AND ADVECT WESTWARD WITH THE MEAN
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE E CONUS BLOCK. MAGNITUDE UNCERTAIN, YET IT
GIVES WEIGHT TO THE NON-GEFS CAMP OF KEEPING THE W CONUS TROF TO THE
WEST. EVEN THE 11.12Z OPERATION GFS BUYS INTO THIS OUTCOME. SO WHILE
THERE ARE SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A LINGERING
MOISTURE SET-UP, THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS LIKE A SQUEEZE-PLAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE, DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST IN-BETWEEN COMPETING SYSTEMS DRIVING IN FROM
OPPOSITE SIDES. THE JUXTAPOSITION UNCERTAIN, WILL POTENTIALLY BE
CONTENDING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-SEPTEMBER.
SO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A LEADING WARM FRONT THAT WASHES OUT
INTO A LINGERING TROF AXIS AS A PROMINENT VORTMAX THRU THE W CONUS
MID-LEVEL TROF LIFTS N INTO CANADA. A POOLING FOCUS FOR CONTINENTAL-
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP AGAINST FRANCINE'S REMNANTS AS SE WINDS PREVAIL
USHERING IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WILL SEE A DAILY DECREASE IN
WESTERLY SHEAR AND INCREASE IN AFTERNOON-EVENING INSTABILITY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY AS ECHOED BY THE SPC
DAY 3 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD BE SIMILAR TO
THE ACTIVITY WITNESSED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. ANY
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.
INTO NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNCERTAIN, EITHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE, PERHAPS A COMBINATION
OF BOTH AS WE CONTEND WITH TODAY. CERTAINLY THE STRONGER ADVECTION
OF AIRMASSES AT THE SURFACE, LIKELY AN EVOLVING DRYLINE SETUP IN OUR
VICINITY COUPLED WITH FASTER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER UNKNOWN IS THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND MORPHOLOGY OF THE W CONUS H3-7 TROF AS POTENTIALLY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN N FROM BAJA / MEXICO AS DRIER SW LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWS. HUMIDITY BEING THE GREATER VARIABLE AS BREEZY S
WINDS ARE EXPECTED A MAJORITY OF THE TIME ALONG THE MAINTENANCE OF
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN
INITIAL GUESS, WAVERING DRYLINE IN CONCERT WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE W CONUS TROF, WET WEATHER CHANCES
AHEAD (TUESDAY), DRY, FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOLLOWS (WEDNESDAY).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2024
BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED OVER BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD. A STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CRATING LLWS OF
WS002 OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 45-50 KTS OVER EACH
TERMINAL THROUGH ~11-15Z THEN AGAIN BEGINNING AROUND 03Z FOR
KMCK AND 05Z FOR KGLD. THE LLJ WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY LEADING TO GUSTY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 752 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2024
PORTIONS OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF HITCHCOCK, RAWLINS,
THOMAS, LOGAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE DRY LINE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
KEEP RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET ARE ACROSS E COLORADO. THE
HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR (DUNDY DOWN THROUGH GREELEY COUNTIES) WERE
UPGRADED DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MID TEEN TO LOW 20 RH VALUES AND
CONSISTENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH
THE 15% CRITICAL THRESHOLD MAY NOT BE MET, GIVEN FEEDBACK FROM FUEL
PARTNERS FUELS ARE READY TO BURN. EXTREME VALUES OF THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX ARE ALSO BEING SEEN ON THESE CONDITIONS AS WELL TO
FURTHER SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE FIRE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ002-014-028-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ079.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ080.
UPDATE...KMK
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KMK
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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