726
FXUS63 KGLD 131147
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
- EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND!
- WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY GET TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND
MAY POSE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 112 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S TO UPPER
60S. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN CWA ARE EXPECTED AS THE SLOW
MOVING SURFACE LOW PUSHES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.
SATURDAY, A HIGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOOKS TO PUSH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA, ALLOWING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO GUST INTO
THE 25-35 KTS RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RH
VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
THE FRONT MAY FIRE OFF SOME STORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO START SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS TO NOT BE A MAJOR THREAT, BUT A STRONG STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL
UP TO 1.25 INCHES AND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. DURING THE DAY HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHERN CWA AND LOW 90S
IN THE SOUTHERN CWA, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY, THERE IS A 15% CHANCE LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS FINALLY TAKE A BREAK AND GUSTS
LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S.
OVERALL, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT, BUT OVERCAST DAY.
SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A WEAK 500 MB LOW LOOK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH MAY FIRE OFF SOME EVENING
TIME CONVECTION. MOST LIKELY AREA THAT COULD SEE THEE STORMS WILL BE
IN EASTERN COLORADO. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS. LOWS LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN FOR MONDAY HAS A RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC-
NORTHWEST AND OVER OUR AREA THE FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH 70S AND SOME
LOCALIZED LOCATIONS HITTING ABOVE 80 DEGREES. THE WINDS AND
GUSTS LOOK TO BE CALM AND RELATIVELY TAME. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES POPS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING 10-20% CHANCE AND WITH THERE
BEING CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG, THESE WOULD LIKELY JUST BE POP-
UP RAIN SHOWERS IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP. TUESDAY LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGHS DO WARM UP TO THE LOW 90S.
THE WINDS REMAIN CALM AND GUSTS TAME. OVERALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE NICE WEATHER DAYS.
WEDNESDAY, LOOKS TO HAVE A CONCERN FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER. CURRENTLY THEY ARE IN THE RANGE OF
THE HIGH 90S AND POTENTIAL LOW 100S. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THERE
BEING A 20-45% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS, SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF KS HWY 27. THE NBM AND
LREF'S 90TH PERCENTILES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH 108 AND 101
DEGREES RESPECTFULLY. THE LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM THE WEST THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE GUST ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE HIGHER THAN 30
MPH. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THERE BEING A 40-60% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 30 MPH. THE LREF DOES HOWEVER SHOW LOWER PERCENTAGES
IN THE 50S COMPARED TO THE NBM. THE GUSTS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND
MIDDAY AND ARE FOCUSED ON YUMA COUNTY AND SPREAD OUT TO THE
BORDERING COUNTIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. MOVING TO THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES, THERE IS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
VALUES. IN THE MORNING THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50-60%
THEN COME MIDDAY THEY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME UNCERTAINLY WITH EXACTLY HOW LONG THAT PERIOD OF LOW RH
VALUES STICKS AROUND HOWEVER. MOVING TO GFDI, THERE ARE VALUES
THERE ARE A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS WHERE WE HAVE VALUES IN THE 50-60
RANGE BUT THIS IS VERY LOCALIZED. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD LEAD TO
HIGH FIRE GROWTH. THERE COULD BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, HOWEVER
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH IF ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR CONDITIONS
TO MEET CRITERIA WILL OVERLAP. CURRENTLY 20-35% THAT CONDITIONS
WILL MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.
AS WE MOVE FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEK, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO DE-
AMPLIFIES AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HOWEVER DURING THIS
PERIOD THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THAT WOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURE BELOW 100
DEGREES. HIGHS FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE
IN THE LOW 90S AND WINDS RELATIVE CALM TO BREEZY. AS FOR
PRECIPATION CHANCES POPS CURRENTLY ARE 10-30%. FRIDAY HAS THE
HIGHER CHANCES WITH 20-40%. LOOKING AT SFC-CAPE THERE IS ROUGHLY
500-900 J/KG AND THE SFC-500MB SHEAR IN THE 20 KT RANGE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS THAN STORMS, BUT THIS IS ALMOST
7 DAYS OUT AND A FAIR AMOUNT CAN CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FOREAST PERIOD WITH ONLY STRAY
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING MCK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 25 KNOTS. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING AND RENEWED CLOUD
COVER LATE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THOUGH NO
APPRECIABLE IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...WFO LBF/NMJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page