702
FXUS63 KGLD 012031
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
- STORMS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE. SOME INSTANCES
OF HAIL AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE
STORMS.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE IF INITIAL STORMS CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE FOR A PROLONGED AMOUNT OF TIME.
- MULTIPLE HOURS OF FIRE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.
- A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS SLOWING MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE
BACK END OF THE LOW SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE INTO NW KANSAS AS A DRYLINE. A 2ND
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME STORM ATTEMPTS THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. A BRIEF LANDSPOUT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE BUT THE LACK
OF STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT ANY PROLONGED
LANDSPOUT CONCERNS. A CAP IS SEEN IN SOUNDINGS AROUND 700MB
WHICH SHOULD OVERALL INHIBIT STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON
BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, I CAN'T RULE OUT A STORM BREAKING THE
AFTERNOON CAP. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR THEN HAIL AROUND 2 INCHES
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-20%.
A SHORTWAVE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS IS
FORECAST TO BE THE AREAS GREATEST THREAT FOR STORMS FOR THE DAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
BRIEF PERIODS OF COLD POOL DRIVEN WIND COULD OCCUR AS WELL BUT THE
SIGNAL FOR COLD POOLS IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS FOR YESTERDAYS
SEVERE EVENT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS IS FORECAST TO START
AS EARLY AS 4PM MT AND LAST THROUGH AROUND 10PM MT. A 700MB JET IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 03Z AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH MAY
AID IN SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OR SOME BACK BUILDING OF THE ALREADY
ONGOING STORMS BUT CURRENTLY THINK ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS WAVE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW AS GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR IN
THE MIXING LEVEL.
THURSDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS BUT WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS YUMA COUNTY TO THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS NW KANSAS. A DRY LINE IS FORECAST TO SET UP
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE THE INITIATION SOURCE FOR STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. INITIAL STORMS STARTING AROUND 3PM MT
ARE FORECAST TO BE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS WITH
40 KNOT SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 3500-4000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
UP TO 9.0C/KM. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
MORE LIFT TO END THE SUPERCELL THREAT AND MERGE CELLS INTO A
CLUSTER AS MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING 700MB
JET DRIVING IT. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
11PM CT.
FRIDAY, SIMILAR PATTERN TO THURSDAY BUT WITH EVEN FURTHER EAST
PROGRESSION. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN GUIDANCE THAT THE DRY LINE FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR BEHIND THE DRYLINE DUE TO
MIXING UP TO 15,000 FEET AGL WHICH BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE
WOULD SUPPORT WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 MPH. NAM SURFACE TO 30MB
AGL DEW POINTS SUGGEST EVEN DRIER AIR THAN FORECAST BEING IN
PLACE ACROSS KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. PER
DISCUSSIONS WITH FUELS PARTNERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FUELS
HAVE BEGUN TO CURE AGAIN LEADING TO A RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE RUN OF GUIDANCE TO ENSURE THAT THIS
SIGNAL STILL REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE DURATION OF THE CONDITIONS
DOESN'T DECREASE. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CLIP THE AREA. DUE TO THIS
THE FORCING IS A BIT WEAKER BUT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN THE MAIN
THREAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND EXITING THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. THEN A RIDGE BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AND BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE THE
GREAT PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF THERE BEING SOME EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
STARTING WITH JULY 4TH, SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO HIGH 90S. WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD THERE IS
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND HEAD SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PRIOR DAYS, THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ON SATURDAY DO LOOK TO HIGHER IN THE
20-50%. THE GUSTS THE BE IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE. THERE IS A SMALL
CONCERN FOR STORMS GIVEN WE HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS
OUR LIFTING MECHANISM. BOTH THE NBM AND LREF HAVE AT LEAST 1500 J/KG
FOR SFC-CAPE. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THERE WOULD BE AROUND
30-50 KTS OF SFC-500MB SHEAR. LOOKING AT NCAR AI CONVECTIVE HAZARDS
FORECAST MULTIPLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF POTENTIAL OF THESE
STORMS BEING SEVERE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACTLY LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT.
SUNDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE
RIDGE STILL STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
HIGH 80S TO HIGH 90S. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 20% FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE WINDS LOOK TO MAINLY STAY TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. LOOKING AT SFC-CAPE
EACH DAY HAS AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE SFC-500MB SHEAR IS AROUND 20-40
KTS. ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER IS 5-15%
FOR THERE TO BE CONVECTIVE HAZARDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS. MCK IS
A BIT TRICKY AS A BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER OR
VERY NEAR THE TERMINAL KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IF THE
BOUNDARY DOESN'T AFFECT THE TERMINAL THEN WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WOULD OCCUR. AM WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR EACH TERMINAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LLWS IS ALSO
A CONCERN AS WELL FOR EACH TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...TRIGG
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