569
FXUS63 KGLD 220848
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 70
MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS
ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
OVERVIEW: WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA..
ON THE NNE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY AND TUESDAY: WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS (AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL) SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND LIGHT (10-20 MPH) ESE-SSE UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO AID/
FACILITATE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TYPICAL
GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS (E.G. PALMER DIVIDE, CHEYENNE
RIDGE). WITH RIGHT-MOVER MOTION FROM THE NW AND N, CYCLONIC
UPDRAFTS EMANATING FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN CO. WHILE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
(CAP STRENGTH) WITH EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE CO-KS BORDER WILL
TEND TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST KS, DOWNSTREAM
PROPAGATION *INTO* NORTHWEST KS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
***TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY***
A 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES TUESDAY, WITH A MODEST 40-55 KT JET STREAK AT ITS BASE.
THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME, GEFS 850-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW IN COLORADO. SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE LOW IN COLORADO WOULD MEET NORTHERLY FLOW
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH AXIS, CREATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SETUP. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UP TO 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE-
BASED CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) MAY BE IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION, GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 0-6
KM VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KTS IS REASONABLY POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE 500-MB JET STREAK. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE, WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS INCLUDING HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
THIS PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IS HIGHEST ON TUESDAY AROUND 15-20%.
***THURSDAY-SUNDAY***
RIDGING LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING IN OVERHEAD SOMETIME THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO STICK AROUND ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY, THOUGH CHANCES
BEGIN TO DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) HAS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN
0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY'S ACTIVITY BASED ON
NBM 24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS
ARE ALLOWED TO BECOME SEVERE DEPENDS ON THE POSITIONING AND
STRENGTH OF THE 500-MB JET. LREF 90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WINDS AT 500-MB COULD STILL REACH 30-40 KTS,
THOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE JET WILL BE WEAKER ON THURSDAY
THAN THAT OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE A BIT LOWER THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING THURSDAY IS DOWN TO ABOUT 5-10%.
BY FRIDAY, ALL AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION HAVE A 1 IN 3
CHANCE OR LESS TO EXPERIENCE GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION ACCORDING TO NBM 24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
THIS DECREASES TO LESS THAN 10% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, AS TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN WARMING AGAIN. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, AND LOW TO UPPER
90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THIS HEATING OCCURS AND MOISTURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET IN. FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE ALLOWED TO REACH THE 25
TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS THIS ZONE, WHICH COULD IMPLICATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AS A CONCERN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY IS AROUND 5% OR LESS, AS BOTH RH
VALUES AND WIND GUSTS ARE JUST MEETING CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD.
ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY HELP
COUNTER THE INCOMING DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN SO, THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
GLD: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE, THOUGH.. INTERMITTENT
BREAKS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING (~15-18Z) WITH FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WHEN LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP IN COLORADO COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE GOODLAND
TERMINAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (~22-02Z). AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/EXTENT IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MCK: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE LATE MORNING (~15-18Z) WITH FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, WHEN LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING 0C LEVEL TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP
MELTING LAYERS, PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
RECENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS (PRELIMINARY) ALONG A LINE FROM
TRENTON, NE TO GRINNELL, KS RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY,
AREAS IN SOUTHERN RAWLINS AND NORTHERN THOMAS COUNTY RANGE
AROUND 2.5-5 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THAT TONIGHT'S STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE THAN 1-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SATURATED LOCATIONS, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPOUNDING
FLOOD RISKS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AROUND 30-40%.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE ARE RETURNING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. IF STORMS KEEP PASSING OVER THE SAME, SATURATED
AREAS, FLOODING BECOMES A REOCCURRING RISK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
HYDROLOGY...CA
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