418
FXUS63 KGLD 220942
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WARMEST ON MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID 60'S TO NEAR 70F. MONDAY MAY HAVE GUSTS TO 40
MPH IN THE NORTHWEST.
- WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
- WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY COULD SEE BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 143 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, THE TRI STATE REGION IS LOOKING AT
CLEAR SKIES W/ A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALONG/EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25. WEST OF THERE, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 100 AM MST ARE RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
NUMBERS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE EAST UNDER THE RIDGE. WEST,
THERE IS A RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A TROUGH EXITING EASTERN KANSAS IS SLOWLY
GIVING WAY TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FROM THE LATEST GFS/NAM GUIDANCE, THIS RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO SNOWPACK ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF COLBY, KANSAS. THIS SHOULD BE
MITIGATED AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMER TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED. ALSO, THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TONIGHT IN SOME OF THE RIVER CHANNELS/
LOW LYING AREAS. MONDAY COULD BRING GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL.
TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE CURRENT RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA DOES SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SOME DURING THE DAY, W/ A WEAK TROUGH BUILDING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED W/ SUNNY
SKIES AREA-WIDE. THE FULL SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH AN EXPECTED
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE AREA W/ NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOW YESTERDAY WILL SEE
LOWER HIGHS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SNOWPACK OVER THE AFFECTED
LOCALES. NONETHELESS, MELTING WILL OCCUR. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
WILL PROVIDE A RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS,
TEMPERED SOME BY THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS EXPECTED. THE ADDED MOISTURE
FROM MELTING INTO THE GROUND, NEARBY RIVER CHANNELS AND LOW LYING
AREAS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FREEZING FOG. THE NAM,
NAMNEST AND HIRESWARW DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL BUT COULD BE THE
OUTLIERS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE(20-30%).
NONETHELESS, WITH GROUND TEMPS BELOW FREEZING CURRENTLY, MUCH OF THE
MELTED SNOW WILL REMAIN ON THE SURFACE, INCREASING THE RH POTENTIAL
IN LOW LYING AREAS COMBINING WITH LIGHT WINDS TO GIVE THE AREA A
CHANCE FOR FOG. HAVE PUT IN A LOW MENTION IN THE FORECAST CONFINED
TO MAINLY RIVER CHANNELS/LOW LYING AREAS FOR NOW. IF IT OCCURS,
LOOKING IN THE 06Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME FOR A START CARRYING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME, ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL
COINCIDE WITH A 700/850MB JET(40-50KT) THAT SKIRTS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE PREDOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THROUGH
THE DAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO MORE WESTERN GOING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR TO THE SURFACE IN
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTS INTO THE
30-40 MPH RANGE, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN DUNDY
COUNTY IN NEBRASKA.
FOR TEMPS, THE FIRST 24 HOURS(TODAY/TONIGHT) WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTED FROM THE SNOWFALL RECEIVED YESTERDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TODAY TO RANGE WIDELY FROM THE MID AND UPPER
40S NORTH OF I-70, TO THE UPPER 40S THROUGH THE MID 50S ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-70. THE AREA FROM FLAGLER, COLORADO EASTWARD INTO THE BREWSTER,
KANSAS AREA SAW THE MOST SNOW YESTERDAY. THESE LOCALES SHOULD SEE
DECENT MELTING TODAY AND COMBINED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW,
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CONSISTENCY W/ THE REST OF THE CWA GOING INTO
SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MID
20S. THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW AREA WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN
THE SURROUNDING AREA, AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF HOW MUCH MELTS
TODAY.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, WARMING TREND ENSUES WITH A RANGE DURING THE DAY
WITH UPPER 50S THROUGH THE MID 60S. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO EVEN
WARMER NUMBERS FOR MONDAY WITH A DAYTIME RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S
AREA-WIDE. SOME LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY 27 AND SOUTH OF I-70 COULD
SEE THE 70F MARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S
THROUGH THE MID 30S. MONDAY NIGHT, LOWER TO MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO
MOIST AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN IN THE LONG-TERM, ALLOWING THE SKY
TO FAVOR MORE CLEAR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY REDUCE POPS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A FEW WAVES
MOVING THROUGH.
TUESDAY, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE CAUSED A LOW-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MORNING, BUT LIKELY (75%) LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, LETTING
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 70. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG-TERM, HOWEVER EACH DAY SHOULD WARM TO AT
LEAST THE LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING, A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH, BUT ONCE AGAIN,
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10. OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, THIS TROUGH HAS CONTINUALLY LOOKED WEAKER. THE GFS IS STILL
SHOWING AN 850 MB LLJ AROUND 40 KTS AND THE ECMWF AND CMC-NH ARE
STARTING TO SHOW THESE LLJ SPEEDS, TOO. HOWEVER, THE LLJ LOOKS TO
OCCUR AROUND 6-12Z WEDNESDAY, WHEN OUR DIURNAL INVERSION NORMALLY
BUFFERS THE SURFACE FROM THE 850 WINDS, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN 40
KTS WINDS AT THE SURFACE. IF THE WINDS ARE CONTINUOUS, THE PBL WOULD
REMAIN MIXED, ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE GUSTS REACHING 40 KTS IS ONLY AROUND 35-40%.
DUE TO THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS NEXT WEEK, RH
VALUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. WE'VE
ALREADY MENTIONED WEDNESDAY'S WINDS, BUT FRIDAY IS SHOWING SOME
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KTS RANGE. THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS
ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER; CONFIDENCE IN
HITTING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ONLY AROUND 15-20% WITH FRIDAY
SO FAR LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCE, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT'S TOO FAR
OUT TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT THIS LOW WILL DO AND WHEN IT'LL DO IT, BUT
IT IS A FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
BOTH TERMINALS (KMCK/KGLD) WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS FOR KGLD, WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS.
WINDS FOR KMCK, MAINLY WEST AROUND 10KTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST FROM 00Z-06Z SUNDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN
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