317
FXUS63 KGLD 211959
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER THANKS TO SOME COOLER AIR THAT MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX TONIGHT. MOISTURE
IN THE 850-500MB COLUMN INCREASES FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. UPPER JET
SUPPORTS INCREASES OVER SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE
LOW AND MID 50S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS
DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAS VEGAS DURING THE DAY THEN INTO ARIZONA DURING
THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. SOME MOISTURE IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE'VE AGREED TO LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME GIVEN SOMEWHAT LACKING MOISTURE
IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAYERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY.
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PART OF KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. DID MENTION A CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD
AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF, REMAINING
IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME RELIEF FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE CUT OFF LOW EJECTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, A
LITTLE LATER THAN MODEL RUNS SHOWED YESTERDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF UPCOMING MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING
OF NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THIS SYSTEM A BIT. AT THIS TIME,
FEELING PRETTY PESSIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GREAT SOURCE OF MOISTURE WHILE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BUT WILL BE CROSSING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST
AREA. MID-LEVELS ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT DOES REACH
THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE
FRONT, WILL SEE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BUT THOSE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...024
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