624
FXUS63 KGLD 120528
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1128 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HWY 83 AND SOUTH OF I-70
WHERE WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY LEAD TO RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
DENSE FOG REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARE THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR. SYNOPTICALLY,
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY,
WHEREAS AT THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS GUSTING AROUND
30-40 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE DAY IS ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
EARLY AS 20Z. TWO AREAS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED FOR STORMS WITH THE
FIRST BEING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(GREELEY, WALLACE, LOGAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES). FORCING FOR THIS
IS FROM EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PRIMARILY
IN THE 700- 500MB LEVEL. THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THESE
STORMS STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER
AND IF DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH RESULTING IN A WEAK
DRYLINE WEAKENS THEM. IF THE DRYLINE SCENARIO DOES OCCUR THEN
DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH LIGHTNING
INDUCED FIRE START POTENTIAL. HAIL AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG IN
THE MOIST SECTOR ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT GIVEN
DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ONLY REMAINING AROUND 50 KNOTS THINK THAT
70MPH WOULD BE THE HIGH END OF THE HAZARD SPECTRUM. SHOULD WINDS
OF 55-70 MPH OCCUR THEN DUST STORMS AND POSSIBLY A WALL OF DUST
MAY OCCUR AS THE 12Z HRRR HAS AROUND 10 C/KM 0-2KM LAPSE RATES
AND 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
CAP TO KEEP THE DUST NEAR THE SURFACE.
THE 2ND AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS KIT CARSON, YUMA, DUNDY AND
POSSIBLE CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS. THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
STARTING AROUND 01Z. THIS REGION IS FORECAST TO BE IN PROXIMITY
OF A LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250MB JET SYNOPTICALLY PROVIDING
FORCING. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MORE ELEVATED AS
DRIER SURFACE AIR IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING MAY BE THE BIGGEST HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY BUT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND DOWNSHEAR VECTORS REMAINING AROUND
45-50 KNOTS ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1100 J/KG MAY STILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD WIN WIND GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 60 MPH. ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DONE BY 06Z BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEING SITUATED
FAIRLY CLOSELY TO YUMA COUNTY. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY WEAK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS. I DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE
ANY OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS THE WIND
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL AND I ALSO HAVE CONCERNS
ON THE DURATION OF OVERLAPPING OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 50-60% WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS CHEYENNE (CO),
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL
ACROSS GOVE, GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE
DRYLINE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND WITH THE COUNTIES IN THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A WEAK 250MB JET MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS
TO FORM. SHOULD A STORM BE ABLE TO FORM LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CONFIDENCE
IN A STORM FORMING IS CURRENTLY AROUND 10-15% AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
BUT HAVE CONCERNS IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN REACH THE GROUND DUE
TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS.
MONDAY, WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS PERSISTENT
TROUGHING SYNOPTICALLY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EJECT INTO W KANSAS.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ONLY GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES AS THE POSITION OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GREATLY AFFECT WIND GUSTS FOR THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO UPPER
80S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 50-60 KT 500-MB JET
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A
SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN 850-MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND BACK INTO MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL AID
THIS SURFACE CYCLONE BY PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY. A MIX OF WET AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN, WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S COLD FRONT, AND POSSIBLY
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS
THE CWA ARE IN THE LOWER-70S TO LOWER-80S TUESDAY, WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (RH) IN THE MID-TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
30-40% CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN COLORADO,
AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND A 75% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD ACROSS THIS ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN A RED
FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED RESTS AROUND 10% AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION, RAIN IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND
A 30-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THIS ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS CYCLONE IS FAVORED TO START CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALLOWED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE 70S. HOWEVER, RH VALUES MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP
INTO THE MID-TEENS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO, FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS, WHICH COULD
IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. LREF
GUIDANCE PROVIDES ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS THIS ZONE, WITH NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVER A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITERIA (HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AT AROUND 60-70%).
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY HINDER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THIS ZONE TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
NEEDED WEDNESDAY IS AROUND 5-10%.
THE 850-MB HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
THURSDAY, WITH 500-MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
REDEVELOPED. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE LEVEL FLOW WOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE FAVORED FROM THIS PATTERN, WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS TO MID-
TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS, WHERE LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 90% PROBABILITY FOR
RH VALUES TO MEET CRITERIA, AND NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOUT A
TWO IN THREE CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITERIA. AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED THURSDAY IS ABOUT
20%.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE PRESENT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, WHICH
COULD ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COOLER CONDITIONS MAY LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER-60S TO
LOWER-70S FRIDAY, AND MID-50S TO LOWER-60S SATURDAY. RAIN MAY
ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
NIGHT HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~20,000 FT AGL. A ~50 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (PER KGLD VELOCITY DATA) WILL
FOSTER LLWS LATE THIS EVENING AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LLWS WILL ABATE BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KS. S TO SW SURFACE WINDS AT ~12-16 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SW OR WSW LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SW TO WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND DECREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET, NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~20,000 FT AGL. A ~50 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (PER KGLD VELOCITY DATA) WILL
FOSTER LLWS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LLWS
WILL ABATE BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KS. S TO SW SURFACE WINDS AT ~10-15 KNOTS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WSW AND DECREASE TO ~5 KNOTS BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO ~25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /10 PM
CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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