967
FXUS63 KGLD 260353
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
953 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 100S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 100S. LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND STAY HYDRATED
INCLUDING HUMANS AND LIVESTOCK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS AIR TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
- SHOWERS AND STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS MONDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CURRENTLY THE MAIN THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING 598 DAM HIGH ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHICH IS ACTUALLY A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHICH IS INTERESTING TODAY BEGINS
OUR WELL ADVERTISED MULTIPLE DAY HEAT EVENT AS MOST OF THE AREA
IS ALREADY IN THE 90S BY 10AM MT. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
MAINLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AIR
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT DATA AS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
SHOULD REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS. 30 AGL DEW POINT FORECASTS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR THAT COULD BE MIXED DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S MAINLY
WEST OF A TRIBUNE TO OBERLIN LINE WHICH WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP
HEAT INDICES CLOSER IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
EAST OF THAT LINE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE HEAT INDICES VALUES OF
105-110. THE DRY AIR MIXING DOWN DOES SEEM TO BE A BIT
REASONABLE AS WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 598 DAM
HIGH ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. IF
THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION THEN ELEVATED TO EVEN LOCALLY,
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED
ACROSS MAINLY KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES.
VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS GUIDANCE, NOT HAS
BEEN TRENDING WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AS WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S ARE FORECAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT.
SUNDAY, CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD BUT STILL REMAIN SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW HOT IT WILL
GET. ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER ON STRENGTH ON THE HIGH WITH IT
BEING AROUND 588-590 DAM VERSUS THE RAP AND NAM AROUND 594-596.
THE RAP AND NAM SCENARIOS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 105+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY AS WARM AS 110. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND WOULD BE MORE IN THE 100-105 RANGE. THE OTHER CHANGE
FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT THE SURFACE TO 30MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE
LOWER. IF THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE THEN HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. WINDS ARE HOWEVER,
FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TODAY WHICH WOULD THEN LEAD TO A BIT
MORE OF A DIFFICULT TIME FOR THE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. FOR THE
HEAT ADVISORY, I DID ISSUE A SECOND ONE FOR YUMA, KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO TO HOPEFULLY AVOID CONFUSION
DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION ONE FOR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL BUT DUE TO KNOWN OUTDOOR
EVENTS ACROSS YUMA COUNTY AND WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE EXTREME CATEGORY OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
MAINLY AN IMPACT BASED HEAT ADVISORY; PLUS AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES THEMSELVES. SIMILAR TO THE
TONIGHT, MINIMAL AND PERHAPS EVEN LESS RECOVERY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOCALIZED LOW 80S.
RAINFALL CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY HAS FALLEN SOME FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THE 500MB AND 700MB VORTICITY MAXIMA LOOK WEAKER
MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. RAP AND NAM BOTH CONTINUE TO
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN 700-500MB MOISTURE DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXPANDING INTO THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA SO
AM OPTING TO BRING IN SOME 10% RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
SHOULD THESE DEVELOP DRY LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WHICH COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO START FIRES ALONG WITH VALUES
COULD BE AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS. VERY LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY COLLAPSING CELLS. AM
NOTICING HOWEVER ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING SOUTH FROM
NEBRASKA INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SUSTAIN ITSELF SOME AS WELL AS THE
VORTICITY LOBE IS ON THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING 850MB JET.
MONDAY, CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE AREA AND THE
FINAL DAY OF OUR INTENSE HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST
TO BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH A 594 DAM HIGH OVER THE AREA BUT
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD LOWER THAN TODAY OR SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY
850MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND ADVECT
INTO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH A 700MB SHORTWAVE. SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS A RESULT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
MOVE TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE LINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARE DEPICTED
IN THE NAM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN PLACE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD
BE POSSIBLE AS GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH COULD BE IN PLAY. SHOULD THE
OVERNIGHT STORM THREAT TAKE PLACE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS COULD BE IN PLAY AS WELL DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WITH CORFIDI UPSHEAR VALUES AROUND 10 KNOTS AND PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.4-1.7. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DRY FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 700MB ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM WHICH DOES LOWER MY
CONFIDENCE IN ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. AROUND 25% OF 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DOES TRY TO PAINT SOME HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA, SO THIS THREAT WILL FOR SURE NEED TO
BE MONITORED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IS STILL LIKELY TO STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME INDICATION OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO "COOL" DOWN TO THE MID TO HIGH
90S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. WINDS FOR THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN
CALM TO BREEZY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-60% RANGE.
MOVING TO THE PRECIPATION CHANCES THIS WEEK: STARTING WITH TUESDAY,
GUIDANCE MAINLY THE NAM AND THE RRFS SHOWS A BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CO/KS BORDER. WITH THIS BOUNDARY, MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OF OVER THE CWA.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE EAST, CAUSING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WILL
HELP INFLUENCE SHOWER/STORM PRODUCTION. POPS ARE IN THE 30-50% RANGE,
AND THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.10" OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE 15-
30% FOR AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27. HOWEVER, ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT
SOME MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS BOUNDARY OR SHOW A WEAKER VERSION ON
THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS IS ROUGHLY FOUR DAYS OUT, IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE WILL TREND WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
ITS LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ONCE AGAIN, WEDNESDAY HAS SIMILAR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH POPS
IN THE 20-50% RANGE. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE LOOKS TO HAVE ANOTHER
BOUNDARY IN PLACE, BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. GIVEN WE HAVE MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH, THIS WILL HELP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE WEEK, EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DOES
HAVE AROUND A 10-20% RANGE FOR POPS. THESE CHANCES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PAN OUT. WHILE A FAIR
AMOUNT CAN CHANGE, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. FOR KGLD, WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND 12Z WHEN THEY BECOME LIGHTER AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
FOR KMCK, WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
MAXING OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-
013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...RHOADES
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