377
FXUS63 KGLD 251114
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY BRINGS IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
- PATCHY AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS MAY BE
IN THE MID 20S NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
AS EXPECTED, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IS CAUSING A
JET STREAK TO SPAN FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. DOWN AT 850 MB, THERE IS A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SETUP OVER THE CWA, PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WE ARE ALSO
SEEING WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THERE IS 20%
CONFIDENCE THAT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG (0.25 MILE VISIBILITY) WILL
FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS RECENTLY
FALLEN AND PRECIPITATION CEASES AROUND SUNRISE.
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS THROUGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
GRADUALLY DIFFUSES AS A NEW 850 MB LEE LOW FORMS IN SOUTHERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT NEVER GO
AWAY. AT 500 MB, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ABSORB THE FOUR CORNERS LOW INTO ITS
FLOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE 500 MB LOW MOVING AGAIN BY
MONDAY MORNING, THE 850 MB LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
REINVIGORATING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA, INCREASING
POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE 500 MB LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS ZONAL FLOW AND THE GULF HIGH PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COMPLETELY END AROUND 0-6Z
TUESDAY.
WITH THE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION, WE ARE EXPECTING NOTABLE RAINFALL.
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
TODAY AND MONDAY, HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S, WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 2% CHANCE AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VONA, CO TO
HAIGLER, NE SEE SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS MORNING MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN. EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SO LOW, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 700-850 MB WILL KEEP A STRONG, MOIST WARM
NOSE, FULLY MELTING ANY DENDRITES.
TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 34 LOOK TO BE COOLING TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
SOUTHERLY, WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTION EARLY TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
KEEP DEW POINTS ABOVE FREEZING AND SATURATE MOST OF THE AREA, MAKING
FOG ACROSS THE CWA IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
THIS ADVECTION IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO JUST BELOW FREEZING AND INTRODUCES THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 34. THIS IS A THREAT
THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ADDITIONALLY, MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WE HAVE PASSED THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON,
SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR THE REST
OF THE YEAR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH
FRIDAY. STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL USHER IN SEVERAL DAYS OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)
COULD SEE SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, MODELS HAVE OVERALL BACKED DOWN
ON THE WIND POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NBM STILL HAS
AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FOR KIT CARSON
COUNTY.
FRIDAY, A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DIG
SOUTH AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SWITCH US TO MORE OF AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH, BUT BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSAGES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 20-30%, INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON WHERE
THE TROUGH ENDS UP SETTING UP AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE PLEASANT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KGLD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IFR AND WORSE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE KMCK WILL LARGELY BE IFR AND LOWER ONCE THE LOWER CLOUD
DECK MOVES IN. BETWEEN RAIN AND FOG, VISIBILITIES WILL BOUNCE
BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOO. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL LARGELY BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.
IN THE AFTERNOON, THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP, BUT
REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE, WE ARE EXPECTING ON
AND OFF PRECIPITATION TO LAST INTO MONDAY EVENING. SO FAR, THE EVENT
IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. AS OF 7Z, MOST OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED
SOME PRECIPITATION. THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN CWA IS CURRENTLY THE AREA
WHERE LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION HAS YET FALLEN. THE BULK OF IT HAS
FALLEN IN A ROUGHLY 30 MILE WIDE BAND FROM TOWNER, CO TO TRENTON,
NE. IN THIS BAND, INITIAL REPORTS SUGGEST 0.5-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN. AN ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 0.1-0.3 INCHES, A BAND OF 1-2
INCHES, AND POCKETS OF UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST.
THERE IS A NOTABLE VARIATION BETWEEN DETERMINISTICS AND ENSEMBLES
WITH THIS FORECAST: WHERE THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION BAND SETS UP.
ENSEMBLES FAVOR IT STAYING IN PLACE (DENOTED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH)
WHILE DETERMINISTICS PUSH IT FULLY INTO EASTERN COLORADO. EITHER
WAY, IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS EVENT.
IF THE BAND REMAINS IN PLACE, THERE IS A 35% CHANCE OF AREAL AND/OR
RIVER FLOODING. LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS
IMPACTED FROM ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR. IF THE BAND SHIFTS TO
THE WEST, THAT RISK DROPS TO AROUND 5-10%. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING STILL REMAINS LOW, NOW AROUND 10% AND WOULD FAVOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND ARE SOUTH OF I-70.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page