431
FXUS63 KGLD 290202
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
802 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CO AND NEARBY KS-NE
BORDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 5-11 PM MDT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
- A DAILY POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS,
POTENTIALLY SEVERE, MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING WFO'S HAVE OPTED
TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 04Z DUE TO NEW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECAST EXPECTATIONS,
AS OUTLINED IN THE DSS PACKET ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE NOON MDT.
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/OVERTURNING YESTERDAY
EVENING-NIGHT HAS MODIFIED THE HOT, STIFLING AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO NEAR-AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70'S AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS 16-19C, PERSISTS. WIDESPREAD
MORNING STRATUS DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA, AND, AS OF 21Z, SOME DEGREE OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PERSISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
SOUTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND, IN LOGAN/GOVE COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 90' AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID 60'S, DIURNAL CUMULUS IS NOTABLY ABSENT. SPC MESOANALYSIS
DATA INDICATES 850 MB DEWPOINTS ~11 TO 14C IN THAT AREA,
SUGGESTING THAT SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY BE THE CULPRIT. ALTERNATELY
OR ADDITIONALLY, SUBSIDENCE ON THE REAR/NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING MCV COULD BE SUPPRESSING DIURNAL CUMULUS. OTHER THAN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST CO, THERE APPEARS TO BE
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH
THIS IN MIND, IN-SITU CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON UPSTREAM
CONVECTION, I.E. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE/CHEYENNE RIDGE PROPAGATING INTO THE GOODLAND
CWA, WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY
(1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE) AND 25-30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ARE QUITE CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
RIGHT-MOVER MOTION THIS EVENING IS FROM THE N (340-020 @ 5-10
KNOTS). SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN CO, AND THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF
THE CO-KS BORDER WILL LARGELY BE CONTINGENT UPON LINEAR
ORGANIZATION AND COLD-POOL CONSOLIDATION.
WED-WED NIGHT: LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
MODIFY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION, LENDING
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. BROADLY
SPEAKING, EXPECT THAT LATE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE, CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER
DIVIDE.. AND THAT ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE S
OR SE, I.E. EASTERN CO STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
***THURSDAY***
GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A BROAD
HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES THURSDAY MORNING. AT
THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING AROUND THE RIDGE
ANTICYCLONICALLY IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD. A SURFACE LOW AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
TRAVERSE THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, THOUGH ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OR LESS THAT SFC-500MB WIND
SHEAR WILL EXCEED 30 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND ALONG US-283 IN KANSAS. GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION, SHOWING LESS THAN 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM WIND
SHEAR IN THIS ZONE. HOWEVER, LATEST GFS AND NAMNST MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN INVERTED-V UP TO ABOUT 3 KM, WHICH MAY
INDICATE MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH STORMS. CONFIDENCE IN STORM
COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS NBM 24 HR PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY UP TO A 1 IN 3 CHANCE TO RECEIVE GREATER
THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IS AROUND 5% THURSDAY.
***FRIDAY/SATURDAY***
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN ERODING THE STRONG RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD OVER THE
FOUR- CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLOW AT 500-MB OVER THE
FORECAST REGION IS FAVORED TO BE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS SUCH, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FRIDAY, AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND MAY ESTABLISH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS
SUCH, SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY. AGAIN,
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AS NBM 24 HR PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THIS ZONE. HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A 500-MB JET STREAK OVER THE REGION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN
LREF SFC-500MB WIND SHEAR GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS A 40-60% CHANCE
OF WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS, THEY MAY BE
ALLOWED TO BECOME SEVERE. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
FRIDAY EVENING IS ABOUT 5% DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE.
***SUNDAY-TUESDAY***
THE RIDGE AXIS IS FAVORED TO BE OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AS A
STRONG 500-MB TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES PUSHES IT EAST. CONDITIONS WOULD WARM UP
AGAIN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S SUNDAY, AND UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIER. GEFS 850-MB
GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW IN THE U.S. SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD
CREATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTS AND PREVENT
MOISTURE FROM RETURNING TO THE FORECAST REGION. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (RH) MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS
DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE THIS DOES NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA (RH<15%), NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD REGION
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A 50% CHANCE
OR HIGHER OF EXPERIENCING WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CONSIDERING THAT FUELS ARE DRIER ACROSS THIS REGION,
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE
NORTH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
GLD: LIGHT EASTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BETWEEN
~02-06Z. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
DECREASES EAST OF THE CO-KS BORDER, ENOUGH-SO THAT EXPLICIT
MENTION OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A PROB30 GROUP WITH
THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS (INCLUDING DECAYING CONVECTION
OR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS). WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION, SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
WITH FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (~08-14Z
WED). VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
MCK: LIGHT EASTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED-OUT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE DECREASES CONSIDERABLY EAST
OF THE CO-KS BORDER, ENOUGH-SO THAT THUNDER IS NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTIONED WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS (INCLUDING
DECAYING CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS). WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION, SUB-VFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS (~08-14Z WED). VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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