736
FXUS63 KGLD 070726
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S.
- COULD SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING NEAR THE
WESTERN ROCKIES, MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND KEEPING THE
MAIN JET STREAM TO THE NORTH NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER. AT THE
SURFACE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES, WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE DURING THIS TIME,
THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, REINFORCING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR US. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY BUILD IN FROM COLORADO TODAY AS YESTURDAY'S
FRONT STALLS OUT, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S.
LATE TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SMALL TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DIFFERENCES (1-
5 DEGREES) COULD FAVOR LOCALIZED FOG FORMATION, REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 6-8 MILES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY, WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW (5-
10%), AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25% STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE STUCK IN THE MIDDLE
OF MULTIPLE FEATURES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A HURRICANE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. IN SPITE OF ALL THESE FEATURES IN THE UNITED STATES,
THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA IN A RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN WITH A
SURFACE LOW HANGING AROUND THE HIGH AND NORTHERN PLAINS THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR
PLACE OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S. THE DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO HAVE
RELATIVELY HUMIDITY LOWER INTO THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA KEEPING WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH, THERE IS INCREASING
CONCERN FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BUT WITH ENSEMBLE SPREAD CHARTS SHOWING MOST OF THE
FEATURES COULD EITHER SHIFT OR BECOME MORE BROAD, DON'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS YET AS CONDITIONS COULD STILL
CHANGE A BIT. ONE OF THE THINGS I AM MORE CONFIDENT IN IS THE LACK
OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE WE HAVE FEATURES NEAR/OVER THE AREA, THE AIR
WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO FORM, KEEPING OUR PRECIP
CHANCES UNDER 5%.
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN A MESS WITH TWO NORTHERN UPPER
TROUGHS POSSIBLE ALONG THE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES POTENTIALLY MOVING NEAR THE AREA. FOR NOW, IT IS LIKELY THAT
WE WILL HAVE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ALL THESE FEATURES
THAT SHOULD BRING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGHS TRYING TO
PUSH THE SURFACE LOW EAST AND ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THAT START OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOWER EACH DAY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S BE MID-WEEK. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG EACH FEATURE WILL BE AND WHEN IT WILL
ADVANCE, SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MUCH COLDER AIR WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN SO, THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS ONLY
AROUND 5-10%. THIS HAS ALSO SEVERELY LOWER THE SNOW CHANCES HINTED
AT BY PRIOR RUNS IN GUIDANCE. WHAT HASN'T LOWERED IS THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THE INFLUX OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. WHILE
UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LEAD TO DECENT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO DRY
NEAR SURFACE AIR, MON-WED HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLDREN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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