908
FXUS63 KGLD 010911
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE (15%) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY
IN NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
- LOW CHANCE (15%) FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING FOG IN FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
- MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
TODAY: CURRENT (00Z 03/01) OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
ONGOING LOW-LEVEL (850 MB) WARM ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST KS --
ASSOC/W SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A POORLY
DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE RATON MESA (PER 08Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS DATA) -- WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL-EASTERN KS DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING (A FEW HOURS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED). IF THIS IS THE CASE, LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS COMPARATIVELY LESS LIKELY TO
SATURATE/OVERCOME THE VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWAT 0.20 TO 0.30")
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST KS. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AND CURRENT AND RECENT (00-06Z) RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS LINE OF REASONING IN THAT.. ALL
INDICATE A REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST KS WITH PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO
CENTRAL-EASTERN KS (EAST OF THE GOODLAND CWA). IF LIGHT PRECIP
WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE GOODLAND CWA LATE THIS MORNING (~15-18Z),
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED ALONG/EAST OF HWY 283
(NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES), WHERE AND WHEN VERTICAL WETBULB
PROFILES VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROMINENT WARM NOSE
(+2 TO +4C FROM ~4000 TO 8000 FT AGL) ATOP A DEEP SUB-FREEZING
LAYER (AS COLD AS -5C) IN THE LOWEST 4000 FT AGL WITH SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ~30-32F.. SUGGESTING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. PROBABILISTICALLY, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A ~10% (1 IN 10) CHANCE FOR A TRACE OF ICE
ACCUMULATION IN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40'S (NORTON/GRAHAM) TO MID-UPPER
50'S (EASTERN CO).
TONIGHT: WEAK LOW-LEVEL (~850 MB) WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA LIGHT ESE TO S SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIA CURRENT AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS, HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THAT STRATUS WILL
BE ~1500 FT IN DEPTH (FAR SHALLOWER THAN INDICATED BY
YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE).. LOWERING CONFIDENCE W/REGARD TO DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. IF DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (NORTON/GRAHAM), HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE BELOW-FREEZING SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO
~16Z MON, I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
MONDAY: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL FOSTER A RAPID
WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 50'S (NORTON/GRAHAM) TO MID 60'S (EASTERN CO). WHILE LOW
STRATUS (WHERE PRESENT) WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.. A THICK VEIL OF OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED CIRRUS MAY STILL RENDER OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING, PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
MON NIGHT: A BROAD LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN CO MON NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.. PRESENTLY SITUATED IN THE PACIFIC, ~500 MI
WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO.. SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND 4-CORNERS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW /
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
STRATUS OVERNIGHT (~06-12Z TUE). AT PRESENT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE GOODLAND CWA, WITH
LIGHT PRECIP CONFINED TO CENTRAL-EASTERN KS. EITHER WAY,
GUIDANCE INDICATES WELL ABOVE-FREEZING THERMAL/VERTICAL WETBULB
PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT W/REGARD
TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOME PRIMED FOR A
LOW AND COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL PERSISTENT
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE PLAINS. IN THE MID LAYERS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STILL LOOKS TO CAUSE A DRY LAYER. THIS LEADS TO A FAIRLY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE, LIKELY LEADING TO
DRIZZLE. NBM HAS BEEN TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION, WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP DEW POINTS
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO DROP BELOW FREEZING
FOR MORE THAN ~30 MINUTES, SLICK CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
AS ICE WILL START FORMING.
TUESDAY, THE THE PATTERN CHANGES AS A LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE
WESTERN CONUS AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
ENTER THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 12-15Z. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
OCCUR FIRST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, LEAVING THE MID LAYERS DRY
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, WE CAN
EXPECT WINDS TUESDAY TO BE GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KTS.
THE REST OF THE COLUMN LOOKS TO SATURATE IN THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY, AS THE 500 MB LOW ALSO ENTERS. THIS WILL BE THE START
OF OUR BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, THE NBM SHOWS A
50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE MORNING. THIS IS
LIKELY A COMBINATION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING IF THE INVERSION REMAINS INTACT, THE FROPA OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN OCCURS AT THE SAME TIME, OR VARIANCE IN
ENSEMBLE MEMBER TIMING. EVEN THOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED IN
THE MIDDAY TUESDAY, THEY ARE LIKELY STILL TOO HIGH FOR TUESDAY
15-21Z.
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE THE TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE FIRST
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT THERE
IS A 30% CHANCE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR. SURFACE AND
NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE
P-TYPE. AS IT STANDS, RAIN LOOKS TO DOMINATE WITH OCCASIONAL
SNOW MIXING IN. THERE ARE NO CLEAR CUT SIGNS OF A WARM NOSE
DURING OUR POTENTIAL FREEZING TIMES, MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. THERE ARE SIGNS OF CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM, SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND EMBEDDED
CELLS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ARE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WANING BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, EXITING TO
THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. COME THURSDAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT A
SYSTEM THAT'S VERY SIMILAR TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE 850 MB LOW LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
CWA, WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE WE'LL STAY ABOVE FREEZING,
AND A SLIGHTLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM ARE CHAOTIC. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING, WE'LL LIKELY BE SEEING CAA
OVER THE AREA, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
TUESDAY, DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT,
THE NORTHERN CWA MAY NOT WARM OUT OF THE 40S WHILE THE SOUTHERN
CWA COULD WARM TO NEAR 70. HIGHS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY, PEAKING IN THE 70S, THEN COOLING ABOUT 20
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. SE WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SSE-S DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS ABOVE ~12,000 FT AGL. E WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. 10-15 KNOT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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