317  
FXUS63 KGLD 211959  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
159 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH MID 70S  
TO AROUND 80 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE  
CO/KS BORDER THANKS TO SOME COOLER AIR THAT MOVED IN BEHIND A COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS ARE  
EXPECTED. THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX TONIGHT. MOISTURE  
IN THE 850-500MB COLUMN INCREASES FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. UPPER JET  
SUPPORTS INCREASES OVER SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTING  
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES  
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE  
LOW AND MID 50S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  
 
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS  
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. LOTS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS  
DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAS VEGAS DURING THE DAY THEN INTO ARIZONA DURING  
THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. SOME MOISTURE IN  
THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA  
DURING THE NIGHT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER. PER  
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE'VE AGREED TO LOWER  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME GIVEN SOMEWHAT LACKING MOISTURE  
IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAYERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW  
TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN FAR  
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS  
BORDER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY.  
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER  
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TRI-STATE  
AREA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO  
MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE SOUTHERN PART OF KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. DID MENTION A CHANCE FOR  
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE  
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD  
AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF, REMAINING  
IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
WE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME RELIEF FROM HIGHS IN THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH BREEZY  
CONDITIONS.  
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE CUT OFF LOW EJECTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, A  
LITTLE LATER THAN MODEL RUNS SHOWED YESTERDAY. WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED IF UPCOMING MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING  
OF NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH THIS SYSTEM A BIT. AT THIS TIME,  
FEELING PRETTY PESSIMISTIC ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GREAT SOURCE OF MOISTURE WHILE  
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BUT WILL BE CROSSING THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST  
AREA. MID-LEVELS ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF  
ANY MOISTURE REMAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT DOES REACH  
THE AREA.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE  
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE  
UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE  
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS  
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE  
FRONT, WILL SEE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS THROUGH  
THIS EVENING, BUT THOSE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW MOVING ALONG THE  
FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...AW  
AVIATION...024  
 
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