725
FXUS63 KGLD 230516
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- CURRENTLY A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
TONIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND PUSH
EAST. THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE LESS
THAN 100 J/KG AND WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS. WITH
THIS, NO SHOWERS HAVE SUSTAINED THEMSELVES SINCE ENTERING THE AREA.
THIS COULD CONTINUE UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WE LOSE THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.
THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
THOUGH AND KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 50. TEMPERATURES COULD
LOWER CLOSER TO 40 SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK LONG ENOUGH.
SATURDAY, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. BUT WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BRIEFLY HIT
15-20 MPH EARLY IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BUT THEN LOWER BACK CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES AWAY AND THE SURFACE LOW BROADENS. SKIES SHOULD BE A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID AND HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING THROUGH. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND HELP SPARK SOME STORMS, MAINLY
FOR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. THE STORMS NORTH OF I-70 WILL LIKELY
FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES JUST BELOW 8 C/KM. WITH THIS, IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT LARGE HAIL OR TORNADOES WOULD FORM, BUT THERE COULD BE A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH WITH DOWNSHEAR VECTORS AROUND 50 KTS. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS SUSTAINING THEM. FOR THOSE SOUTH OF I-70, IF THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN, THEY WOULD HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND
THREAT AND A HAIL THREAT. MUCAPE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 1000-
2000 J/KG WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CLOSER TO
45 KTS TO PRODUCE LARGER HAIL. THE MAX SIZE LOOKS TO BE AROUND GOLF
BALL, WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW 8 C/KM.
ALL OF THIS IS ALSO MAINLY DEPENDENT ON STORMS STAYING MORE ISOLATED
AND NOT COMPETING. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER COULD QUICKLY STABILIZE
THE AREA AND CHOKE OFF THE STORM THREAT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. ALL OF
THIS LEADS TO AROUND A 5% CHANCE THAT SEVERE STORMS WOULD OCCUR. IF
WE DON'T GET ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, STORMS
THEMSELVES MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR.
TOMORROW NIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST ONCE STORMS CLEAR
OUT. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WOULD BE THAT IF WE GOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THIS
WOULD FAVOR SOUTH OF I-70. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S FOR
THOSE WITH CLOUD COVER, AND IN THE UPPER 40S FOR THOSE WHO CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY, A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT DOES SO, THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS, DRIER AIR SHOULD PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AND HELP DEVELOP A DRYLINE THAT PUSHES THROUGH MOST OF
THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THE SAVING GRACE IS THAT THE LOW
MAY BE SO BROAD, THAT THE WINDS DON'T GET ABOVE 15-20 MPH. FOR NOW,
ONLY A 10% CHANCE THAT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE MET FOR 3 HOURS.
OTHERWISE, ON TOP OF TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARDS 90, THE OTHER
CONDITION OF INTEREST IS STORMS FIRING UP ALONG THE DRYLINE. STORMS
COULD FIRE UP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER, EVEN THE GENERALLY MOIST NAM 3K ISN'T
GIVING MUCH TO WORK WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND
35-40 KTS, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. ALL OF THESE
FORECAST PARAMETERS SUGGEST A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
STORMS. GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RRFS GIVES THE AREA LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH, WITH LESSER STORM COVERAGE AS A CONSEQUENCE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING, AS
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN
IS FAVORED TO LAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, ESTABLISHING A
BROAD SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG
HIGH SETS UP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO
PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD, AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTHEAST BATTLE FOR DOMINANCE.
***MONDAY/TUESDAY***
WARM, WET CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY, AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S ON TUESDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION BOTH DAYS. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
MEAN OF ABOUT 50-60 DEGREE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
MEAN SURFACE CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ON MONDAY. 90TH PERCENTILE CAPE VALUES ARE
UPWARD OF 4000 J/KG MONDAY, AND AROUND 2500 J/KG TUESDAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY IN PLAY BOTH DAYS, THOUGH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS. EVEN LREF 90TH PERCENTILE WINDS AT 500-MB ARE 30-35
KTS AT BEST, WHICH WOULD INDICATE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
STILL, CONSIDERING THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THAT COULD
BE ACHIEVED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE. EVEN SO, THE NBM SUGGESTS THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) HAS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE OR LESS TO EXPERIENCE GREATER THAN
0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BASED ON
THIS ASSESSMENT, MOST ACTIVITY IS FAVORED TO LIMIT TO WEAK,
LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL AND WINDS EARLY IN THEIR LIFE CYCLE. CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE
EVENT EITHER DAY IS AROUND 5%.
***WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY***
CONDITIONS MAY COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WET CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AS WELL. LREF GUIDANCE
INDICATES INSTABILITY IS FAVORED TO REMAIN, AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS
NOT EXPECTED TO ERODE SURFACE DEW POINTS. THERE MAY BE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE ACROSS KANSAS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH MEETS EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE AREA, WHICH MAY IMPROVE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
NBM 72 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 50% CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY COMBINED. CONSIDERING THAT INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN
ADDITION TO A POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS KANSAS, ACTIVITY MAY
BE MIXED BETWEEN LOCALIZED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, AND AREAS OF A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THAT THE GFS AND EC ARE CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT OR GREATER THAN 0.9 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, IN ADDITION TO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IF THIS IS THE CASE, STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 10000FT, WITH
OCCASIONAL CLEAR SKIES. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 8 KTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z, THEN PICKING UP TO BE AROUND 10-15 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BE ALERT FOR
STORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-02Z,
THOUGH THE CHANCE IS CURRENTLY AROUND 10%.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KAK
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