696
FXUS63 KGLD 100659
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
- WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND MAYBE SOME LOW 90S.
- POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
WE ARE MONITORING AN AREA OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG STRETCHING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. SO FAR AS OF 12 AM MDT, CONDITIONS IN
THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA HAVE REMAINED CLEAR WITH A FEW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA
AND STRETCHING INTO SHERMAN COUNTY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS A
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY, ADVECTING DRY INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AFTER
THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. WITH THE MOISTURE DECREASING, THE FOG AND/OR STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 8-9 AM MDT.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS OUT, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD SURGE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINING CHANCES
FOR RAIN FOR THE THOSE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE
COLORAD-KANSAS BORDER WHILE SLIDING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NEBRASKA BORDER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN, LACK OF FORCING,
AND WEAK FLOW, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30%. SHOULD
WE HAVE ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO GIVEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
FOR THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS
FORECAST TO HELP DEVELOP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE SATURDAY, AND THEN PUSH IT THROUGH THE AREA AS A LOW/COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE LIKELY TO BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S
AND MAYBE THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS. WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH,
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER AROUND 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
WHILE BREEZY, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WOULD PRODUCE MUCH
BLOWING DUST OR ANY ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. FROM THE PRECIPITATION SIDE
OF THINGS, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES WITH THE LOW AND FRONT IN THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE CONTENT AT ANY PARTICULAR LEVEL DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SO FOR
NOW, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOW IMPACTS REMAINS THE FORECAST.
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WE START UNDER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. WE MAY HAVE A FEW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH MOISTURE STILL FORECAST TO TRY AND STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO THE 70S AND 80S WHILE ALSO
LOWERING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
AS OF 11 AM MDT, PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
KMCK AND KGLD TERMINALS, PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ALREADY AT
THE FORMER. GLD IS THEN FORECAST TO SEE VISIBILITIES DECREASE TO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 07-09Z. PREVIOUS THINKING THAT DENSE
FOG IS MOST LIKELY AT GLD THAN MCK REMAINS ON TRACK. ANY
FOG/STRATUS IS FORECAST TO END AROUND 12-14Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. BY 21-23Z, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FOR GLD AND 20 KTS FOR KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK
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