255
FXUS63 KGLD 042034
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING FROM COLORADO WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- STORM AND SHOWERS CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS PRESENT WHICH IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE HIGH IS IN PLACE
CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND IS KEEPING DEW POINTS A
LITTLE ON THE LOWER SIDE WHICH MAY BE ONE OF THE ISSUES TO THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE AND MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRE CLUSTER STORMS AS SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES A THETA E BOUNDARY DEVELOPING FROM ROUGHLY
JOES TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 10% IN PRE
CLUSTER STORMS. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CLUSTER TOGETHER LEADING
TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH
POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL IS POSSIBLE AS STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE UP FOR MINIMAL CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG AS
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30-35 KNOTS WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME BRIEF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES (WEST OF HIGHWAY 385) AS PARAMETERS
ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WITH THE LACKING
PARAMETER BEING THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN THE 100MB
MEAN PARCEL LCL HEIGHT. THE 0-3KM LAPSE RATE IS ALSO NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THE DRY ADIABAT WHICH ALSO BRINGS CONFIDENCE DOWN
SOME AND MAKES ME THINK THAT ANY SEVERE WIND EVENT WOULD
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. 16Z HRRR DRY MICROBURST
PARAMETERS DO ACTUALLY GET FAVORABLE AFTER 01Z AS THE LCL
HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE THE MELTING LEVEL BUT 0-3KM LAPSE RATES
FURTHER UNSUPPORTIVE OF BEING EVEN RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE DRY
ADIABAT.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DECAY AS THEY CROSS THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE
AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DECAYING
CONVECTION WHICH COULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH WHICH
COULD POSE A FAIRLY CONSIDERABLE ISSUE FOR FIREWORK EVENTS THIS
EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE A SUBTLE SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AS WINDS GO LIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE FOG INTO THE
FORECAST AS CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT IN TIME BUT IS SOMETHING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SUNDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTH AND
SHUNT OUT THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE STATE LINE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH FORECAST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ABOVE THE MIX LAYER SHOWS LIGHT WINDS WHICH
SUGGESTS TO ME THAT JUST A BREEZY SUSTAINED WIND IS MOST LIKELY
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY AS A MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 5-10% AT THIS TIME OF THIS OCCURRING.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SYNOPTICALLY FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE PERIOD, MONDAY THERE IS A
RIDGE SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH THE CREST OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS CANADA AND THIS WILL SOMEWHAT DE-
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE TWO TROUGHS WILL
BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE WEST AND EAST COAST AND OUR RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND STAY OVER THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATION
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH
THE AREA AS WELL.
STARTING WITH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THERE ARE HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US HWY 40 AND EAST
OF HWY 83. FOR THOSE AREAS THERE IS A 5-15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THEN TRANSITIONING TO
COME FROM THE EAST. GUSTS LOOK TO MAINLY REMAIN LESS THAN 30 MPH.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EARLY TO MID PARTS OF THE
WORK WEEK, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES.
THERE IS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THOUGH ON EACH
DAY. CURRENTLY POPS ARE 20-40% FOR WEST OF KS HWY 27 FOR THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A DRYLINE/BOUNDARY IN
PLACE OVER THE CO/KS BORDER ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BE THE LIFTING
FACTOR NEEDED FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A 30-50% RANGE FOR
POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
SOME GUIDANCE LIKE THE GFS DOES SHOW A BOUNDARY/FRONT DEVELOPING OUT
OF COLORADO AND MOVING EAST AND THIS COULD BE THE LIFT FACTOR THAT
COULD LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE EACH DAY 1000-1600 J/KG LOOKS
TO PRESENT. BULK WIND SHEAR IS IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE. GIVEN THESE
VALUES THERE COULD BE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
AREAS EAST OF KS HWY 27 AND CHEYENNE COUNTY, CO. THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IS AROUND 5-10% FOR FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS
DISAGREEING WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY'S
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 100 FROM THE LREF IS 10-15% WHERE AS THE
NBM'S IS AROUND 20-35%. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS A BIT MORE
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 105. THE NBM HAS IT
AT 5-10% AND THE LREF HAS AROUND 5%. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TWO DAY STRETCH. GUSTS
LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 30 MPH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS AS THERE IS AROUND A 10% EACH DAY FOR A
SHOWER TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
STORMS WILL DECAY AS THEY APPROACH GLD. THERE IS CONCERN FOR A
PERIOD OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE DECAYING STORMS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AWAY FROM MCK BUT SOME
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SPOTTY STORM POTENTIAL AFTER 03Z MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
THE GLD VISIBILITY SENSOR IS CURRENTLY INOPERABLE AND
TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...TRIGG
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