815
FXUS63 KGLD 220504
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1104 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING IS DECREASING. IF
CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613 WILL BE
CANCELLED PRIOR TO 07Z.
- WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- HEAT PEAKS TODAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SVR WATCH 613 IS IN EFFECT FOR A LIMITED PORTION OF THE AREA
(WEST AND NORTH OF GOODLAND) UNTIL 07Z. RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE WATCH AREA
MAY LARGELY BE TIED TO A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL CURRENTLY (AT 03Z)
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. RIGHT-MOVER MOTION THIS EVENING IS FROM THE NNE. FROM
A PERSISTENCE STANDPOINT, -IF- THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL
REMAINS DISCRETE, IT'S PRESENT COURSE SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD
REMAIN WEST OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN CO.. AND THAT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE GOODLAND CWA MAY BE CONTINGENT
UPON ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN A WEAK FORCING
REGIME, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE A
FUNCTION OF MESOSCALE FORCING, E.G. AN MCV EMANATING FROM
ONGOING LONG-LIVED CONVECTION. BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS BUILDING IN THE
AREA WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
IN THIS PATTERN WITH THE CONVECTION, AND WILL PROBABLY DO SO
ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE
12Z CAMS. THEY ARE MISSING SOME OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH
ULTIMATELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE, SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF I-70 ORIGINATING FROM
MORNING CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
DETAILS, GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A
SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS,
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
ORIGINATING IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THOSE STORMS DEVELOP AND CLUSTER, MAY SEE
ANOTHER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT,
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAXIMIZED
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA (EAST OF HIGHWAY 25). MAY SEE
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP LATE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA WITH
A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS MUCAPE LINGERS AT 1000-1500
J/KG. OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND BRIEFLY
GUSTY. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AREA, BUT IT
WOULD BE TRANSIENT.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL RUN FROM EASTERN WYOMING
AND COLORADO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL,
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 03Z, STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING BUT MAY
STILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY MAKE
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON SUNDAY AND EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP THROUGH
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FRONT RANGE, AND ONCE AGAIN MAKE THE TREK ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL ARRIVE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER, 00-02Z, IN FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MAY STILL POSE A
MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT, BUT WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS, SEVERE CHANCES WILL
BE LOW. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT ON MONDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES IN
COLORADO, AND THE ZONAL FLOW IS THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING.
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS. RFS
SUGGESTS A FEW SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING, MOVING EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH PERHAPS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SW CONUS AND
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, THERE APPEARS TO BE A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THOUGH THE
CWA, WHICH MAY BRING HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE "COOLEST" DAY FOR THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S,
WHEREAS FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S. IF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OR MOVE EASTWARD, AS
GUIDANCE HINTS, HIGHER TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEEN. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE CALM TO BREEZY, AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN 30%,
WHICH SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRESENT DURING THE WEEK. AS SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE HIGH, THEY WILL LIKELY TO BE OUR MAIN
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. THE DAY CURRENTLY WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS; HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A MISMATCH
BETWEEN HIGHER/LOWER CAPE AND LOWER/HIGHER SHEAR, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LESS ORGANIZED STORMS. LOOKING AT QPF, SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS, WHICH
IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. THE
REST OF THE WEEK THERE IS ROUGHLY A 15-30% CHANCE OF POPS AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
GLD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BREEZY (20-30 KNOT) NE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL AFFECT THE GOODLAND
TERMINAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE, BECOMING ESE OR SE AND INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
MCK: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY OR VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE, BECOMING ESE OR SE AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...VINCENT
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