227
FXUS63 KGLD 161115
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AREAS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AT THE SURFACE, SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE
SOUTH, WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ITS PLACE ON SATURDAY
WHICH MOVES LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. RETURN FLOW ON
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH BY THE
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS TEMPERATURES THERE WARM INTO THE MID 70S
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS. THE SAME AREA WILL
SEE LOW HUMIDITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN CRITICAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S, BUT WARM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE 60S AND 70S. A LIGHT FREEZE
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE (40% PROBABILITIES) IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PLETHORA OF DRY AIR ALOFT
IS LIKELY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE, IS FORECASTED TO INFLUENCE THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED SO NOTHING IS
TO COME FROM THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT. LOOKING AHEAD,
GUIDANCE FORESEES THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US THURSDAY. THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THEN, KEEPING THE 300-500MB WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ADDED INTO THE MIX WITH
DEWPOINTS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR VARIOUS
LOCATIONS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND A STATIONARY FRONT ARE FORECASTED
TO FORM AT THE SURFACE, PROVIDING RISING MOTION NEEDED FOR RAIN TO
DEVELOP.
IT WILL LIKELY BE QUIET INITIALLY, PRECIPITATION WISE, FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES. POPS
(PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION) GUIDANCE DISPLAYS LESS THAN 10%
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ADD THURSDAY INTO THE MIX AND RAINFALL
CHANCES INCREASE A BIT. CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ON THE
LOW END RIGHT NOW AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO PROJECT HOW THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. NONETHELESS, A
GENERAL 25-35% IS FORECASTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
A WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK,
WITH HELP FROM HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS ALOFT, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S MONDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S TUESDAY, AND SHOULD CULMINATE INTO MORE CONSISTENT 80S
THROUGHOUT THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPS BUT MID 70S TO LOW 80S IS STILL FORECASTED
ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD SIT IN THE 40S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS THEN RISE UP TO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER PROJECTS TO BE MILD FOR THIS PARTICULAR LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL STILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
THOROUGHLY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) REMAINING LOW (20-30%), WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY (UP TO 45 MPH), AND INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED
20-25% MONDAY-WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. RH VALUES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA ARE PROJECTED AT 30-50% THROUGH
THURSDAY. TRANSITIONING TO SURFACE WINDS, MONDAY'S WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE (5-15 MPH FROM THE NORTH)
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PROJECT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS (10-20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH) GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO OBSERVE THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
AT AROUND 15-30 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH SOME AREAS OF
EASTERN COLORADO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027-041.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ079.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...024
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