161
FXUS63 KGLD 162255
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON IN KANSAS.
- HOTTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES, BUT THERE ARE A FEW EMBEDDED LOWS
OVER THE PLAINS. THESE LOWS ARE PRODUCING SOME LITTLE VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS THAT ARE TRYING TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. WITH SOME MID- LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THERE IS A ~5%
CHANCE FOR ONE TO THREE SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS. IF THE PRECIPITATION DID FORM, IT SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE
AND SHORT-LIVED. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH, MAYBE SOUTHWEST WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 60S. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR FOG, MAINLY IN
GOVE/GRAHAM/LOGAN COUNTIES AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TRIES TO BRING IN
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE IS SLIM AS THE
MOISTURE HAS A LONG WAY TO ADVECT TO GET INTO THE AREA, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH TO TRY AND BRING IN DRIER AIR
INSTEAD.
FOR FRIDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH THE SAME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
AGAIN UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCE IS LOWER AROUND
2% WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD AGAIN LIGHTEN AND SKIES CLEAR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN LOWER INTO THE 60S. THE FOG
CHANCE IS A BIT LOWER WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO
BE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE MOISTURE,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE LOW TO
MAYBE MID 100S. THIS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WITH SKIES LIKELY CLEAR DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT
WINDS, IT MAY FEEL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK (TUE-THU), AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN DEAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS IT PUSHES THROUGH, A COLD FRONT SHOULD COME
THROUGH AND LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THIS COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, IT
LOOKS UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH LOW INSTABILITY AND THE NEARBY
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TIME
PERIOD IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN.
SHOULD IT DIG IN CLOSER TO THE AREA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN THE 80S AND WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 454 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 10 KTS, BUT WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY AROUND 20 KTS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS AND THEN AFTER 16Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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