564  
FXUS63 KGLD 200447  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1047 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN FORECASTED FOR TODAY/TONIGHT  
WITH HAIL AROUND TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS AROUND  
70 MPH POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR  
FAR SE/E COUNTIES.  
 
- STORMS; SOME SEVERE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ARE FORECAST  
MONDAY. MAIN HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND  
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  
 
- COOLER WITH FROST CONCERNS MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
 
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE A MIXED SUNNY DOWN TO  
PARTLY SUNNY. NOT MUCH REMAINS FROM THE MORNING VEIL OF LOW CLOUD,  
AS STORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE CWA.  
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200 PM MDT ARE RANGING IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE  
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THOSE LOCALES STILL BEING AFFECTED BY  
CLOUDS. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AT  
TIMES.  
 
THE MAIN WX THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED  
ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,  
AS WELL AS MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY.  
 
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE STORM THREAT WILL FOCUS ON THE  
ENVIRONMENT EAST OF A DRYLINE AROUND THE PALMER DIVIDE. MORNING  
RAINFALL EAST MAY HAVE HELPED TO STABILIZE PORTIONS OF THE REGION,  
BUT WITH STORMS POPPING UP AROUND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE CWA, ANY CIN  
FROM THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY ERODING. IN THE SOUTH AND WEST, SBCAPE  
HAS ALREADY JUMPED TO 3000-4500J/KG, DCAPE IN THE 1000-1300J/KG  
RANGE AND WITH HIGH DEWPTS STILL OVER THE CWA, THE AIRMASS IS PRIMED  
FOR STORMS. SPC HAS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUT FOR KS COUNTIES  
FROM GRAHAM SOUTHWEST TO GREELEY. THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY EAST  
OF THESE COUNTIES. IT WILL BE THE STORMS THAT ARE FORMING ALONG  
DRYLINE/FRONT WHICH IS SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE CO/KS/NE BORDER.  
HAIL/WIND STILL MAIN THREATS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO  
OR LAND SPOUT. HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT  
HAVE OCCURRED, SO FLOODING STILL OCCUR.  
 
STORM ACTIVITY TAPERS BY 06Z TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS/PRECIP TO  
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME FOG POTENTIAL  
EAST, SO HAVE A MENTION IN AROUND 12Z MONDAY.  
 
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS, THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME WILL CONTINUE TO  
FOCUS RW/TRW ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF I-70, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF  
HIGHWAY 36. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/DRYLINE DOES DEVELOP A LOW ON  
ITS SOUTHERN EDGE, SETTLING SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY. A COUPLE  
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER LATE MONDAY  
AND AGAIN LATE TUESDAY. THE CURRENTLY TRACK WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST  
POPS(80-90%) FROM HIGHWAY 36 NORTH. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON  
MONDAY ALONG THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE PASSING  
SHORTWAVE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK  
AREAS, DIVIDED BY I-70. WIND/HAIL THREATS LOOK MOST IMPACTFUL.  
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER. TUESDAY WILL SEE  
SIMILAR CONDITIONS, ENDING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE  
DAY.  
 
ACCOMPANYING THE STORM THREATS, WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL  
RAINFALL. THE PACE OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING HAS  
BEEN MIXED AND DID ALLOW FOR 1-3" OF RAIN IN NORTHEAST ZONES. WPC  
DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY EAST TODAY  
AND FOR MONDAY, HIGHWAY 36 NORTH. THE SHIFT TO THE MON-TUE RAIN  
SETUP WILL PUT MOST AREAS IN FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY THOSE  
SEEING AMPLE QPF TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID  
70S NORTH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF  
HIGHWAY 40. WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TUESDAY WILL BE  
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 60F IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID  
70S IN THE SOUTH AND FAR EASTERN ZONES. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA  
WILL SEE A MIX OF 60S.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A RANGE FROM  
THE MID 40S WEST INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT  
HOWEVER, WITH A COOLER AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, UPPER 30S TO THE MID  
40S ARE EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. EAST OF THERE, MID TO UPPER  
40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
 
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES(20-  
40%) FOR RW/TRW ACTIVITY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SET TO TRAVERSE THE CWA  
DURING THIS TIME, BASED ON CURRENT TRACK OF EACH SYSTEM, AREAS NORTH  
OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS DO  
SHOW DIFFERENCES AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION DUE TO  
THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW/FRONT COMPONENTS, BUT OVERALL THE  
CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BEST  
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA  
AS DEWPTS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S/50S THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EXPANDING  
AREA-WIDE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR  
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. GOING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID  
80S THURSDAY, WITH A MIX OF MAINLY 70S THEREAFTER. WARMEST LOCALES  
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME AREAS  
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 THOUGH COULD APPROACH THE 80F MARK. THESE AREAS  
WILL SEE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS/RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S WEST INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S  
EAST. WARMEST OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY  
83.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2024  
 
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIPITATION THAT HAS  
INCREASED DEW POINTS, PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG MANY FORM  
TONIGHT AND IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AROUND 8-13Z. DROPPING  
INTO IMC CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CURRENTLY FOG MORE DENSE THAN  
3 MILE VISIBILITY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNCOMMON DUE TO A SLIGHT  
BREEZE. AROUND 13Z, THE FOG WILL BE LIFTING AND BECOME A STRATUS  
DECK, LASTING UNTIL AROUND 18Z. IFR CEILINGS ARE LOOKING VERY  
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING THAT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR AND  
THEN VFR BY ABOUT MID-DAY. IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STARTING  
AROUND 20Z, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM  
THE NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY LOOK TO LINGER  
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...JN  
AVIATION...CA  
 
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