589
FXUS63 KGLD 100612
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1212 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONS WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS IN
THE 80S/90S, LOWS IN THE 50S/60S, AND WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- THERE MAY BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER TODAY AROUND THE TRI-STATE
BORDER AREA, IF THE DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH CAN OVERLAP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, AND HURRICANE ISAIAS PUSHING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
SOMEWHAT STAGNATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP OUR CONDITIONS
SIMILAR OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REACH THE 80S AND 90S
UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS NEAR THE
AREA ISN'T FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH EITHER OUTSIDE OF MAYBE
BROADENING SIGHTLY. WITH THIS, WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN
BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH, WHILE WINDS NEAR THE TRI-STATE
BORDER STAY MORE AROUND 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE TRI-
STATE AREA WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS.
THANKFULLY, THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DRIEST CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE OFFSET AGAIN. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY AROUND 10-15
MPH AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH WITH
THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST.
FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN.
HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY TO ADVANCE EAST WITH THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE
REMNANTS BLOCKING IT DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS, WE LIKELY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE
THAT THERE MIGHT BE MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING THROUGH THE JET, AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE COULD BE A
BIT LIGHTER. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE A BIT MORE
INTO THE AREA, BUT IS FAVORED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND LEAD TO
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THE LOWS IN THE 60S WITH SOME CLOUD COVER STILL STREAMING
THROUGH. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT THOUGH AS WE GET LATER INTO THE
NIGHT.
MONDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN STILL ISN'T FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH,
ESPECIALLY WITH ENSEMBLE SPREADS FAVORING THE WESTERN TROUGH LAGGING
OR STAYING PUT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT WE MAY HAVE A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST. IF THIS IS
THE CASE, TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MORE APP TO STAY IN THE 80S ALONG
THE NEBRASKA BORDER, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 90S.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-20 MPH AGAIN WITH SOME
PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. MONDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A
RETURN OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S IF WE CAN HAVE CLEAR
SKIES INBETWEEN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD FAVOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS THE COLDER AIR TRIES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STILL BE PROMINENT OVER THE
AREA AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR ALOFT TO ENTER OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE GOING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER NORTH OF I-70.
HOWEVER, A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
FORM TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD INTO
OUR FIRST CHANCES FOR EVENING SHOWERS TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS THIS COULD BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (40-60%) THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN.
WEDNESDAY, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT LINGERING SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY
WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS
TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THOUGH LATER IN THE DAY,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COULD
HAPPEN AS A COLD FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER 600 J/KG.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (25%) THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. IF STORMS DO
OCCUR IT WILL BE WEAK. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.
THURSDAY, THE CONSISTENCY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
BECOME UNCLEAR AS THE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND COULD EITHER SPEED UP OR
SLOW DOWN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IF THE TROUGH
SPEEDS UP, WE COULD EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAWN WITH LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. IF
THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN, WE CAN THEN EXPECT TO SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF HWY 27.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR IS LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, BOTH THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
AND THEN AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AROUND 300-500 FT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40 KTS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS
OCCASIONALLY TO 20-30 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/MOELLER
AVIATION...KAK
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