087
FXUS63 KGLD 130707
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
107 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THREAT FOR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON INCREASING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY, MOVE INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE FINALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96
LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING SOUTH AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP BY 12Z THIS MORNING WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AND INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO, PERSISTING THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER, THROUGH ABOUT
21Z, SO THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF AFTERNOON SUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO RECOVER IN SUCH A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S AND
60S. LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 60 NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, 40-60%
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND HIGHWAY 96, AND LIKELY PROBABILITIES
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST. REFS
MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR. TONIGHT, EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
BY 06Z. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE LACK OF RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST
NEAR THE DEW POINT. RAP SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SHOW CLOUD THICKNESSES
AROUND 1 KM, SO MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOP.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES, THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EXTENSIVE LOW
CLOUDINESS AND DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION. HREF MEANS ARE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND 50TH PERCENTILES ARE IN THE 40S,
WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OUT. TOTAL 48-HOUR PRECIPITATION FOR THE EVENT RANGES FROM 0.25"
TO 0.50" GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND 0.50" TO 1.00"
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 (NBM
PROBABILITIES AROUND 40% FOR THAT TO HAPPEN), THOUGH PROBABLY
WILL NOT STRAY MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT WITH MOSTLY STRATIFORM
RAIN EXPECTED. NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE OPTIMISTICALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S, THOUGH 25TH-50TH PERCENTILES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WHICH MAY BE MORE REALISTIC. FINALLY, ASSUMING CLOUDS CLEAR
ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, MAY SEE FROST OR EVEN A LIGHT FREEZE IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO BY FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONFIDENT ON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
THURSDAY TO START THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, PLACING US IN
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DECENT JET
STREAK IS ANTICIPATED TO PRESENT OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROSSBY WAVE. FURTHERMORE, A SURFACE
LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PATTERN LIKELY CHANGES OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD, BRINGING US
INTO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. MOVING FORWARD, WEAK RIDGING STARTS
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY SHIFTING 300- 500MB FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
SAID RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY,
PLACING THE TRI-STATE AREA RIGHT BACK IN SOUTHWEST FLOWING
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THURSDAY (10- 25%),
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW
(<5%) THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS LOW CHANCE (25%) FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM
ALOFT USHERS IN COOL/DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 50S INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST AS THE SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW KICKS OFF A WARMING TREND THAT RAISES HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY. AS
MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE SECTION, LOW CONFIDENCE (20-30%) EXISTS
OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN SOME AREAS NEAR OR WEST OF K-27.
FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, SO TRENDS REGARDING SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RH IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES. RH VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 20-40% DURING
THE DAY ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. WINDS ORIGINALLY COME ON STRONG
THURSDAY AT 20-35 MPH, GUSTING 30-50 MPH FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAYS
WINDS LIKELY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER AT 10-20 MPH, ALSO FROM
THE NORTH, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
THE DAYS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER.
SATURDAY'S WINDS WILL VARY AROUND THE REGION 15-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH AND GUSTING 20-35 MPH. TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND, SUNDAY'S
WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT (5-10 MPH) SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND GUSTING UP TO 15 MPH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KGLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT KGLD, THOUGH STRATUS
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NEBRASKA, AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR BY 09Z. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHOWN A RISK FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FOR KGLD BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z, HOWEVER THE
RAPIDLY ADVANCING STRATUS SUGGESTS THAT FOG MAY BE PREVENTED
FROM FORMING. IF FOG CAN FORM, VISIBILITIES CAN DROP BELOW A
MILE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR DURING THE EARLY TO
MID-AFTERNOON ON THE 13TH. MODEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
KMCK: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCK AS STRATUS IS BEGINNING
TO SET IN. HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE THAT CEILINGS MAY
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT KMCK, THOUGH OBSERVATIONS SHOW IFR
CEILINGS REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE AIRPORT. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY
WHEN CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN SOMETIME DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON ON THE 13TH. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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