564
FXUS63 KGLD 302235
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A 10% CHANCE FOR A SMALL AREA
TO RECEIVE 3+". NORTHWEST KANSAS IS FAVORED, BUT THE ENTIRE
AREA HAS A CHANCE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND MAYBE A
FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN. SHOCKING, I KNOW, BUT IT IS
HAPPENING. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPSTREAM LOW AND THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW HAS LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. PARTS NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER MAY MISS OUT
OR GET MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS WITH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOW IS. BUT,
THE FARTHER SOUTH HAS KEPT THE DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND END THE RAIN FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE REASON WHY IT IS IN PARTS IS THE CLEARING MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM INSTEAD AND TRY
AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS LOWERED A BIT. STILL, WITH THE DRY SLOT PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING/HEATING AND GENERALLY HIGH VALUES OF SHEAR(0- 6KM
AROUND 45 KTS, 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS), A SEVERE STORM MAY
FORM. IF IT DID FORM, A QUICK TORNADO OR A WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH
(WITH DOWNSHEAR VECTORS OF 50 KTS) ARE THE POTENTIAL THREATS.
THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BE A THREAT FOR THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36. IF THIS DID OCCUR, THE BEST TIME WOULD
BE BETWEEN 2- 8PM CT.
FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE. THAT BEING SAID, THE OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE AREA SHOULD
BE MUCH LOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AND THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY. IF THE DRY SLOT DOES NOT WRAP IN
TOO MUCH, WE SHOULD HAVE ONE LAST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AND
FAVOR NW KANSAS. THIS POTENTIAL BAND WOULD ALSO PROVIDE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING. SHOULD THE LOW SLOWDOWN AND OR WRAP ON ITSELF,
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WOULD DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN THE SAME AREA,
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR 2-5" OF RAIN. WITH THIS, THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME FOG MAY BE ABLE
TO FORM WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROVIDING INSULATION AND NORTHERLY WINDS
NOT PROVIDING THE BEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT, IT WOULDN'T BE
UNREASONABLE FOR SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST. AGAIN, FOG AND RAIN MAY PERSIST AS LONG AS THE FEATURES DON'T
MOVE TOO QUICKLY. BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT AROUND 10AM, MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH SHORT OF MAYBE SOME STRAY BANDS. WITH
COLDER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING IN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL INITIALLY START ELEVATED WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20 GUST 35 MPH, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY EVENING, ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME FOG MAY TRY AND FORM SOUTH
OF I-70 IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. IF SKIES
DO MANAGE TO CLEAR, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S, WITH
MAYBE AN UPPER 30 IN EASTERN COLORADO.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE
BOTH FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE
A MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S
AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10 MPH. WINDS MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER IN EASTERN COLORADO IF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES CAN
PROGRESS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. WITH THE LACK
OF FORCING AND MUCH LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S AGAIN. A FEW UPPER 30S MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF THE WINDS GO MORE CALM INSTEAD OF FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
15 MPH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
REMAINS MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FROM SATURDAY UNTIL AROUND
TUESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE JET STREAM REMAINS TO THE NORTH
NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER AS VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ALONG
THE BORDER. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, THE CANADIAN-NH, ECMWF, AND GFS HAVE ALIGNED IN SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS
AGREE ON THE TROUGH'S PRESENCE IN THE REGION, ITS EXACT STRENGTH AND
SIZE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY, PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) FOR TUESDAY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 5-15%. IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, THE TROUGH COULD FURTHER INCREASE TUESDAY'S
PRECIPITATION CHANCE DEPENDING ON ITS INTENSITY.
REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK, VALUES ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 80 DEGREES FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE WARMEST DAYS ARE FORECAST TO BE SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON BOTH DAYS, THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). OVERALL, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH POPS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10% EACH DAY. TUESDAY CONTINUES
TO FEATURE THE "HIGHEST" POTENTIAL, WITH POPS OF 5-15% DEPENDENT ON
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTH.
WIND CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN FOR MONDAY, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN 850 MB JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SET UP
OVER THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE LOCATION OF
THE HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS. THE LREF FAVORS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SEEING GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, WHILE THE NBM HAS THE HIGHEST GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BOTH MODELS
DO AGREE ON HAVING AROUND A 5-10% PROBABILITY OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 50
MPH ACROSS THE COLORADO COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ABOVE 25% EACH DAY AND RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE
SOIL MOISTURE FAIRLY SATURATED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 428 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHING NORTH AND EAST NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, STILL BE ALERT FOR LOW CEILINGS AROUND 500FT AND
VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-6SM THROUGH 17Z. THERE MAY BE PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY. ALSO, SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE SPOTTY, BUT ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z. KGLD HAS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS.
AFTER 17Z, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AND VFR CONDITIONS HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...KAK
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