399  
FXUS63 KGLD 210939  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
339 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536 WAS CANCELLED AT 11:41 PM MDT --  
AS THUNDERSTORMS BECAME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AND WERE  
NO LONGER ANTICIPATED TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF STANDING WATER ON COUNTY ROAD 20 (~1 MILE  
SOUTH OF HWY 96) IN GREELEY COUNTY (WHICH HAS SINCE RECEDED),  
FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED/REPORTED -- AND ONGOING ELEVATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY EXITING THE TRI-STATE AREA AS THEY TRACK  
NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN MIND, FLASH FLOODING IS NO  
LONGER ANTICIPATED TO POSE A HAZARD, AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS  
BEEN CANCELLED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL PREVAIL  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER  
ALIGNMENT TONIGHT AND SHOWS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEING IMPACTED BY  
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL BE QUIET DUE TO AN  
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
PREVAILING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WE WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO BEING MORE  
ZONAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUIDANCE  
IS FAVORING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE COLORADO / KANSAS AND  
COLORADO / NEBRASKA BORDER, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  
LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH THE NATIONAL  
BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED POPS.  
 
MONDAY, HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND WILL  
TREND UPWARDS DAILY BRINGING US BACK UP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S  
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE IN THE  
MID 50S TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
 
VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO  
BE THE STORM ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 45KTS HAVE  
BEEN REPORTED AT KITR WITH THIS LINE, ALONG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN  
TO A MILE. AM EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE LINE MOVES  
THROUGH KGLD. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY BEHIND THE INITIAL  
LINE OF STORMS, BUT THEN FALL AGAIN AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS  
IN MORE HUMID AIR.  
 
FOR KMCK, THE STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS BY THAT TIME. GUSTY  
WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE  
THROUGH. AM NOT SURE HOW LONG THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER  
BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT  
LONG TERM...EV  
AVIATION...JTL  
 
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