916  
FXUS63 KGLD 210458  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1058 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN  
COLORADO AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL AS LOW AT 25  
DEGREES TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR  
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS  
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS LOW AS 33 DEGREES. FROST AND  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
FORECAST PANNING OUT AS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE WINDS  
OCCURRING AS OF NOW. HAVE HAD SOME SPORADIC GUSTS OF 58-63 MPH  
ACROSS KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (CO) AND LOGAN COUNTIES BUT AM OPTING TO  
HOLD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE SPORADIC NATURE OF THESE  
GUSTS THUS FAR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WANE AFTER 18Z ALBEIT  
STILL GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME TO AN END AS  
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN AND THE JET WEAKENS BUT STILL  
REMAINS STRONG BUT ROOTED ABOVE THE INVERSION.  
 
CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS FOR DUST THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z BEFORE THE  
WINDS WEAKEN. WITH CAPPING 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES A LONGER LIVED PLUME  
OR TWO OF BROWNOUT CONDITIONS STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS YUMA,  
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO) PERHAPS DRIFTING INTO ADJACENT  
COUNTIES. OTHER THAN MAINLY A HAZE HAS BEEN OBSERVED HERE AT  
THE OFFICE WITH SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY THUS FAR. DO  
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE BEFORE WINDS START  
WANING.  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING. AM STARTING TO SEE DEW POINTS  
START TO FALL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUGGESTING THAT THE  
CORRIDOR OF CONCERN FOR THE HUMIDITY DROP IS STARTING TO OCCUR.  
 
HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING INTO WALLACE, LOGAN, WICHITA  
COUNTIES AND EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY INTO GOVE AND SHERIDAN  
COUNTIES AS WELL AS A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09  
AND 12Z ENCOMPASSING THOSE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO FALL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS  
WEAKEN.  
 
FOR TUESDAY, IN SIMILAR FASHION TO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE  
AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS IS FORECAST TO PROMOTE  
TEMPERATURES IN THE IN 60S ACROSS THE AREA. A PERIOD OF BREEZY  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH  
RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS OF 20- 25 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE RESULTING IN HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25  
RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WILL AGAIN NEED  
TO KEEP AN EYE OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS  
WELL AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 30S. WILL REFRAIN FROM PUTTING ANY FROST INTO THE FORECAST  
AT THIS TIME UNTIL TONGIGHT'S FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE ENDED AS  
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HARD FREEZES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE TRANQUIL DAY  
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A  
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS  
THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FLOW AND SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10  
MPH BUT BECOMING EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
LEADS TO MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME  
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL WITH THIS AS WELL.  
 
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS  
WELL. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE  
FORECAST TO INCREASE. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SEVERE CHANCES  
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW  
KANSAS AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DEVELOPS. UPCOMING SHIFTS  
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW CLOSELY.  
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HOWEVER DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE  
LOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM  
PROVIDING THE MAIN LIFT. THE PEAK OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK  
TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO  
INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL ESPECIALLY FOR  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO CONTINUE  
TO SHOW SOME STRIPES OF 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS AND EFI SHIFT OF TAILS  
IS STILL SEEN BUT DO NOTICE THAT LESS MEMBERS HAVE THE HEAVIER  
RAINFALL THAN WHAT WAS SEEN 24 HOURS AGO.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP PROMOTING MORE WIND FOR THE AREA. A STRONG COLD  
FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF  
THE WEEK AS WELL WHICH MAY HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION AS WELL WITH  
IT. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE UPCOMING  
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS  
WILL FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO THE  
MORNING. IN THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY  
BEFORE BECOMING WEAK AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE  
AFTERNOON, BOTH KGLD AND KMCK COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20  
KTS, BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ027-  
028-041-042.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-  
002-013>015-029.  
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ092.  
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-  
080.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...TRIGG  
LONG TERM...TRIGG  
AVIATION...CA  
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