175
FXUS63 KGLD 281603
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1003 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, BUT FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT FOR A GREATER
MAJORITY OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE FOG IS LIKELY TO STAY IN PLACE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING, CLEARING OUT WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY AN UPPER
TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SHIFT
THE SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 WITH THE LOW/FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
COLDER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL PRETTY QUICKLY INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TO OUT OF
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS
SHOULD DEVELOP SOME MORE FOG IN THE AREA, LIKELY STARTING IN SMALL
PATCHES WITHIN NW KANSAS. CLOSER TO SUNRISE, ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
HAVE MOVED IN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO BE UNDER FOG AND DENSE FOG
AGAIN.
THURSDAY, THE FOG SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
SLOWLY BURN OFF AS THE SUN GETS HIGHER IN THE SKY. SIMILAR TO RECENT
DAYS, THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST. THAT BEING SAID,
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. WHILE MAY A BIT
STRONGER THAN WHAT IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG, IT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS COULD KEEP FOG AND/OR
CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
DAY. WITH THIS, HIGHS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MAY STRUGGLE
TO HIT 60, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REACHES THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE FOG IS LIKELY TO RETURN
AS LONG THE AS THE SURFACE LOW DOESN'T NUDGE INTO THE AREA AND BRING
A DRY SLOT. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL HAVE FOG DEVELOP IN PATCHES
OF THE AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES OTHERWISE FROM HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY, ANY FOG THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING HOURS AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE AREA BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT IN AND KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
UNDER CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD CAP TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE 40S AND
50S. FOR NOW THOUGH, A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS IS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO NEAR 60. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE UPPER FORCING TO HELP SPARK SOME RAIN SHOWERS, THE CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT INSTABILITY BUILD UP AND KEEP THINGS AS
SHOWERS. FOR NOW, THIS IS LEADING TO RAIN FORECAST TOTALS AROUND A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH, FAVORING THOSE ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOG WOULD THEN LIKELY REDEVELOP OVER
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, UNLESS THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS PERSISTENT AND HELPS MIX THE LOWER LEVELS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO EJECT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30% FOR THE NORTHEAST
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S, SO RAIN
IS THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO
FORM. WE COULD SEE SOME FOG AS DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST IN THE 50S.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD ADVECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA, INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG.
FOR SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 50S TO 60S. STORM
CHANCES START SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS OF 50-75% INCREASING WEST TO
EAST. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY BE RAIN BASED ON FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO SEND US INTO A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A DEEP
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (PNW)
SOUTHEAST WITH A SECOND TROUGH NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. AS THESE FEATURES PROPOGATE EAST, IT WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TO DRIFT NORTH PLACING A STRONG JET STREAK ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW A SURFACE LOW SET UP IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND PROPOGATE EAST SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE SURFACE LOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OR THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE INTERACTION, TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THESE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATHERS WILL PLAY A
MAJOR ROLE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY, MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW THESE INTERACTIONS WILL PLAY OUT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A HIGH WIND EVENT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. IF WE END UP WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LOW FURTHER SOUTH OR EAST OF THE CWA, WE COULD
SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DUST
WOULD BE UNLIKELY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND CURRENT FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF
DUST BEING LOFTED. A LOW TRACKING OVER THE CWA WOULD LIKELY
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER, OVERALL LOWERING
RISK FOR STRONG WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. IT WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
FOR KGLD... DENSE FOG WAS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING. THE DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 13-15Z,
WITH AREAS WEST OF THE TERMINAL BEGINNING TO CLEAR AROUND 11Z.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DENSE FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, THOUGH IT MAY STAY SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL.
FOR KMCK... LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 15Z. DURING THIS TIME, CEILINGS MAY VARY BETWEEN
500-2000FT. AFTER 15Z, SKIES SHOULD EITHER CLEAR, OR CEILINGS
LIFT TO 3000FT OR HIGHER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WHILE ONLY A 10% CHANCE FOR
NOW, DENSE FOG MAY TRY AND MOVE IN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...KAK
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