391
FXUS63 KGLD 190405
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
905 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BANDED SNOWFALL MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PLEASANT THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, GUSTING 25-35MPH. COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF FRONTOGENESIS CREATING A
BAND OF SNOW THAT AFFECTS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
CONCERNS WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OVERCOME EARLY ON IN THE EVENT. AS THINGS BEGIN TO
SATURATE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. RIGHT
NOW, IT IS LOOKING LIKE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET, WITH
MUCH OF THE EARLY ONSET SNOW EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND.
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND
WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS, THIS WILL BE
WIDELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BAND SETS UP AND HOW SOON WE
SATURATE. GENERALLY, A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LOCALIZED HIGHER
SNOWFALL AMOUNT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MAIN BANDED AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA, EXTENDING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TROUGH, SHIFTING IT EAST. EXPECT A NICE WARM
UP WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID-50S ACROSS THE REGION.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND OUR KANSAS COUNTIES
BORDERING COLORADO. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS IN
THIS LOCATION, CO-LOCATED WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. AREAS FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE RH VALUES IN THE MID-20S
OR HIGHER AND WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
THE WARMER WEATHER STICKS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL GUST ABOVE 20MPH IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, CO-
LOCATED WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WHILE NOT
CURRENTLY SHOWING MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THIS MAY BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE COME A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND: MODELS ARE SHOWING SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PACNW AND A TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. WE ARE
CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ARCTIC AIR PUSHING SOUTH
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. CURRENT CPC GUIDANCE
FOR THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS A PATTERN SHIFT WITH SOME BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING TO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 857 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGLD AND
KMCK. KGLD DOES HAVE A 30-40% CHANCE AT SEEING SNOW THAT WOULD
BRING IN IFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 6-11Z. AFTER THAT, AFTERNOON
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KTS WILL BE THE OTHER NOTABLE
ASPECT OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...CA
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