059
FXUS63 KGLD 051714
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1014 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
REGION IS SEEING A SURFACE RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. THESE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AS OF 100 AM MST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN SPOTS.
THE MAIN WX POINTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON SOME
INCREASED FIRE WX CONCERNS RESULTING FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DECENT AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY, PUTTING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS RIDGE MAKING AN EASTWARD TREK, CRESTING OVER
THE PLAINS BY WED-THU.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, SETTING UP EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH GETS ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM MORE WESTERLY TODAY TO A SOUTHWEST FETCH ON
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT MIXED ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND WILL AFFECT POTENTIAL FIRE WX CONCERNS DURING THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
GOING INTO THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW TO ENSUE. GRADIENT BEHIND THIS
A BIT STRONGER THAN FOR WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF
FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
OVERALL THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST UP TO THE
LOWER 60S FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY,
MID 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY, MID 60S TO
AROUND 70F. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME
COULD BRING SOME LOCALES CLOSE TO NEAR RECORDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL RANGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID
20S TO AROUND 30F TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT MID 20S WEST INTO THE MID 30S EAST. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DESPITE THE FORECASTED LOWS BEING ABOVE
NORMAL, THERE WILL BE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS FOR WED-
THU NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
THE TRI-STATE AREA COULD SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BE
MOVING OVER OUR CWA. PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT BANDS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. POPS HAVE INCREASED IN EASTERN COLORADO,
NOW HAVING AROUND 50% POPS FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
DOES HAVE A GREATER THAN 25% CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION,
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
MORNING IN YUMA COUNTY, EXPAND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, AND TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF IS <0.15 INCHES AND AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW
IN THE WESTERN CWA TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, IF
BANDING PRECIPITATION FORMS, THERE COULD BE AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2-3
TIMES AS MUCH PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A CHANCE THE LLJ THURSDAY
NIGHT BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND FORCES MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA, INCREASING QPF. THERE IS ABOUT A 5% CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING.
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE SNOW AFTER SUNSET, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING, AND MOSTLY RAIN IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
40S THEN 30S WITH THE NIGHTS COOLING INTO THE 20S OR LOWER. THESE
SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW WATER ON THE GROUND TO FREEZE OR
REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PICK UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KTS UNTIL SATURDAY MID-DAY, WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO CEASE. AT THAT TIME GUSTS AROUND 25-30
KTS ARE FORECAST WITH 15-20 KTS GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
AS THE WINDS INCREASE, ANY ONGOING SNOW WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. THIS
COULD LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND TRAVEL SAFETY. WIND
CHILLS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
UPDATED GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE TROUGH BROADENING ON SUNDAY, LEAVING
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA IN THE COLD SECTOR OF THE JET STREAM. WE
LOOK TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK; SO MUCH
FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE WERE SEEING IN YESTERDAY'S MODEL
RUNS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 AM MST TUE DEC 5 2023
FOR WEDNESDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE AND ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. THE
POSITION OF A SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR WHETHER CONDITIONS
WORSEN OR NOT. CURRENTLY, THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF COLORADO. THIS PUTS
THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WILL SEE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BETWEEN I-70/HWY 40 AND HWY
385/HWY 27. SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ONLY APPROACH THE 10-15
MPH RANGE. IF THERE IS ANY MORE OF A NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE LOW,
GRADIENT WINDS COULD APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ALSO DRAG HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN
TOWARDS RED FLAG CRITERIA AS WELL. OVERALL THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 4
HOUR PERIOD OF CONCERN FROM 18Z-22Z.
FOR THURSDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER A MORE
WIDER AREA AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWESTERLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE MUCH OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN KANSAS. HUMIDITY
VALUES LOOKS TO BE WORSE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25,
WHERE MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED. GRADIENT WIND WILL BE
STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD 15-20 MPH FORECASTED. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES. OVERALL THERE WILL BE A 4
HOUR PERIOD OF CONCERN FROM 18Z-22Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...JN
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