407
FXUS63 KGLD 201121
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...A HIGH THIN VEIL OF CLOUDS PREVAILS
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 20S FOR TEMPS...BUT SOME LOCALES ARE AROUND
30 ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE NO SNOWPACK EXISTS ON THE GROUND.
WINDS ARE FROM THE WSW AROUND 5-15MPH.
GOING INTO TODAY...THE REGION WILL SEE YET ANOTHER DRY DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
IS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE FRONT RANGE/EASTERN ROCKIES AND WILL
ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY FETCH IN THE SURFACE WINDS THRU THE DAY. THIS
DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION WILL GIVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 25...AND EAST OF THERE DUE TO SNOWPACK ON THE
GROUND...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S W/ A SPOTS NEAR THE 50F MARK.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LEE-SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK EAST OFF THE
FRONT RANGE...DEVELOPING A LOW AT ITS BASE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION AN ESE SURFACE
WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THESE SURFACE WINDS COMING IN
OVER EASTERN AREAS AND STILL W/ SNOW ON THE GROUND...FOG IS POSSIBLE
SO HAVE A MENTION OF AROUND 03Z-12Z TUESDAY.
WHILE THE FOG HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO PERSIST EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO
BEGIN TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVE S/E OF THE CWA.
WNW AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP START OFF TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA. 500/700 MB TROUGH FOLLOWS THE SURFACE FEATURE ON A
WESTERLY PATH INTO THE PLAINS REGION OVER THE CWA.
THIS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRACK. WHILE SOME
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS INITIALLY...DO EXPECT DECENT MOISTURE TO WRAP INTO
NORTHERN AREAS TO AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL
SUGGEST A RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CAA
WRAPS INTO THE REGION...SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...LOOKING FOR SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...2 TO ALMOST A LOCALIZED 6 INCHES AS YOU APPROACH NW ZONES
ESPECIALLY IN YUMA COUNTY IN NE COLORADO. DECENT 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS SWINGING THRU NW ZONES WILL AID IN BRINGING HIGHEST
POTENTIAL TOTALS.
THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM
WILL BE THE SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
INCREASING MODEL CONFIDENCE OF THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING A STEADY 20-30
MPH W/ GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THESE SPEEDS DO BRING ABOUT THE CONCERN FOR
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE BEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SHOULD OCCUR. THE NEXT INCOMING SHIFT WILL GET ONE MORE LOOK AT
NEWER GUIDANCE TO DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WX PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
AS THE SYSTEM CLEAR THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECTING A
CLEARING TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING OVER THE AREA.
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM SURFACE
RIDGE AND ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK. LOOKING FOR 45-55F WEST AND UPPER
30S TO MID 40S EAST. BY TUESDAY...LOW 30S FOR ALL LOCALES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL TREND FROM 20S TONIGHT TO THE TEENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THESE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...WIND CHILL READINGS
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STRONG EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
ARCTIC REGION CYCLES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT BACK NORTH AND WEAKEN. THE
WEAKENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ALLOWS THE RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD DUE TO
SEPARATION FROM THE MAIN RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH COMING IN BEHIND IT.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS INTO THE 40S AND
LOW 50S AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019
FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS NEAR SCT010 BY 06Z
MONDAY. WINDS...WSW 10-15KTS THRU 17Z THEN NNW 5-10KTS. BY
22Z...SE AROUND 10KTS. LLWS 06Z-12Z MONDAY 220@35KTS.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS NEAR SCT010 BY 06Z
MONDAY. SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR 6SM ALSO POSSIBLE TO START AROUND 06Z
MONDAY. WINDS...W 5-10KTS THRU 18Z THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY
22Z...E AROUND 10KTS BECOMING ESE BY 06Z MONDAY. LLWS 06Z-12Z
MONDAY 200@30KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...JN
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