231
FXUS63 KGLD 110625
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1225 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A 10-20% CHANCE OF SOME FOG AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A SURFACE HIGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHICH IS LEADING TO A WEAKENING TREND OF CURRENT STORMS ACROSS
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTY. ANOTHER 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA IS
EJECTING OFF THE ROCKIES CURRENTLY LEADING TO SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT WITH THE MEAN FLOW BEING TO THE SOUTHEAST
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT SOME WEAK 500 AND 250MB JETS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE
CWA INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF EACH RESPECTIVE JET. A DECAYING
850MB JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AS WELL SO THINK WITH
ALL OF THESE JETS AND DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S THAT SOME SPOTTY PULSE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ST. FRANCIS TO LEOTI. CONFIDENCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS AROUND 20-25%. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MUCAPE OF
500-800 J/KG ALONG WITH 10-20 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
ON THE BACK END OF THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IF THE STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN FOG WITH MOST
LIKELY VISIBILITIES IN THE 4-7SM RANGE COULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION IS
ONLY AROUND 10-20% SO WILL BE LEAVING OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS RED WILLOW INTO NORTHERN
DECATUR AND NORTON COUNTY WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE
LIGHTEST AND HAVING LONGER RESIDENCY IN CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER
SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTH IS MOVING NORTHWARD WHICH MAY
INTERFERE WITH ANY FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION.
SATURDAY, A LARGE HIGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE A PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
KANSAS/COLORADO STATE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MAINLY A
BREEZY SUSTAINED WIND THREAT LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-20 MPH. WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST ABOVE THE
MIXING LAYER WHICH SHOULD HELP ELIMINATE ANY POTENTIAL HIGHER GUST
THREAT. HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AM NOTICING A 500MB VORT MAX
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO A ROGUE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SHOULD A STORM
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IS AROUND 5% AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 500-MB RIDGE WILL
BE OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 90S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) LOOK TO
STEADILY DROP THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WELL BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT ADVISORY (HEAT
INDEX GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES).
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHEST TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MAY
BE LINKED TO A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THIS TROUGH, IN ADDITION TO WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY BE
SUCCESSFUL IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. IF THIS FEATURE CAN BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT AND MOVE MORE INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES, INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MAY
ALLOW FOR THE SLIGHT TEMPERATURE INCREASE. THIS COULD AID IN RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO. WHILE THIS IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA, IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, AS FUELS HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THIS ZONE DESPITE RECENT
RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL BUT HAVE
SOME CONCERNS FOR STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WITH FALLING
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ONGOING AND LOOKING
UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AM ALREADY SEEING SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. RRFS AND RAP SOUNDINGS BOTH SUGGEST FALLING LCL'S
AS WELL THROUGH 13Z FOR EACH TERMINAL SO AM OPTING TO INCLUDE
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THIS SET OF TAFS. STRATUS SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCK WHERE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SETUP AT. IF CURRENT CLOUDS DO
NOT BREAK ENOUGH THEN STRATUS OR FOG MAY NOT EVEN BE A CONCERN.
THERE IS A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE THAT SOME SHOWERS OR A ROGUE
STORM IMPACTS EITHER TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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