324
FXUS63 KGLD 131724
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 455 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST (THIS MORNING) WILL DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES (THIS AFT-EVE). MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST (THIS MORNING) WILL MOVE
ASHORE (TODAY) AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
(TONIGHT-FRIDAY) AND ROCKIES (FRI NIGHT).
TODAY-TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY.. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
(SITUATED OVER CENTRAL KS AT 09Z THIS MORNING) PROGRESSES EAST
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL, HOWEVER, BE MODERATED BY THE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION, WHICH WILL MITIGATE (OR PARTIALLY OFFSET) DIURNAL
HEATING AND DETRIMENTALLY AFFECT VERTICAL MIXING. EXPECT A
MODEST WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20'S TO
LOWER 30'S. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS) WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WSW-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. EXPECT LOWS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
UPPER TEENS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING.
FRIDAY: CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE ROCKIES.. A WEAK/BROAD LEE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEAST CO.. AND THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT
FURTHER TIGHTENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN SUCH A PATTERN, BREEZY
TO STRONG SSW-SW WINDS WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED, HOWEVER..
THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL MITIGATE (OR
PARTIALLY OFFSET) DIURNAL HEATING, DETRIMENTALLY AFFECT VERTICAL
MIXING.. AND SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE MSLP PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. VISUALIZE WHAT THE MSLP PATTERN LOOKS LIKE DURING A
TYPICAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, NOW.. IMAGINE 'PICKING UP' A SURFACE HIGH (FROM
SOMEWHERE ELSE) AND TOSSING IT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THAT MSLP
PATTERN. THE SURFACE HIGH TOSSED INTO THE MIDDLE.. THAT'S THE
SNOWPACK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF
NUMEROUS FACTORS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO).. THE DEPTH AND
AREAL EXTENT OF THE SNOWPACK.. THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION.. AND CLOUD COVER. SPEAKING OF
CLOUD COVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THICK, OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
THOUGH.. IT MAY BE PERIODIC IN NATURE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND,
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 40S TO LOWER 60S,
WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(CHEYENNE CO, GREELEY/WICHITA KS).
FRIDAY NIGHT: THE LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHEAST CO WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FRI EVENING-NIGHT.. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA
FRI NIGHT.. AIDED (TO SOME EXTENT) BY NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LEE CYCLONE. LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, MAY DEVELOP ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LEE CYCLONE (OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN CO AND NORTHWEST KS) FRIDAY EVENING (~00-06Z SAT)..
PRESUMABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE TO 850 MB)
FRONTOGENESIS AND CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF A 120-150 KNOT (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL) JET STREAK
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NM TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEAST KS. IN OTHER WORDS, PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY BE A FUNCTION OF MULTIPLE VARIABLES. THE TIME-FRAME IN
WHICH PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP (00-06Z SAT) IS THE SAME TIME-
FRAME IN WHICH LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE, I.E.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE IN A STATE OF FLUX. WITH THIS IN MIND,
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE LONG TERM IN WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW DOES LOOK TO OCCUR AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY
AS A DEEP MOIST LAYER LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND NAMNEST DO SUGGEST SOME FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WITH A WARM NOSE IN PLACE BUT THE NAM DOES HAVE A KNOWN
BIAS FOR FREEZING RAIN SO WILL TAKE THAT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT FOR
NOW BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE WHAT OTHER MODELS SHOW. I'M ALSO
NOT SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT TO SUPPORT WITHER OF THOSE OCCURRING,
EVEN FROM THE ISENTROPIC SIDE OF THINGS, WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT
FLURRIES MAY BE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE STARTING AROUND THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BREEZY GUSTING 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY SO IF WE DO HAVE ANY
ONGOING SNOWFALL WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL AS WELL. BY THAT TIME THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD BE
CRUSTED OVER ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW ISSUES
FROM THAT BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED BREAKAGE
OF THE SNOW CRUST. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND APPROACHING ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. DON'T THINK AT THIS TIME THAT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE IN PLACE AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH BUT WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AS
WE GET CLOSER.
SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST
RESULTING IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND TO AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST BUT
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID 20S BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST SPEED OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO MONDAY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BEGINS TO FORM. TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS BOTTLED UP.
AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS EAST THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VERY
COLD AIR TO LEAK DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WARM IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BUT MAY NEED
TO BE LOWERED BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE EJECTING LOW AND AS A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASING LIFT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER. AS THE COLDER AIR SEEPS DOWN INTO THE
AREA SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS STILL
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH
HIGHER NUMBERS THAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT. WIND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TUESDAY AT THIS TIME
LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C AND FULL CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD MAKE
IT A STRUGGLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET ABOVE ZERO. I'M NOT
GOING TO GET QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT SOLUTION AS OF NOW BUT ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AS THE ECMWF TYPICALLY DOES DO BETTER
WITH LONGER RANGE SHALLOW ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. AIR TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW ZERO ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WIND CHILLS ALREADY FORECAST AROUND -20F. MORE COLD AIR PRODUCTS
AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR
WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH TUESDAY AM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
THE BREEZY WINDS AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA. JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD THERE REMAINS SIGNALS THAT THE COLD AIR INTRUSIONS MAY
COME TO AN END AS 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CANADA WARM SOME AS RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
AMERICA RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT KMCK, RESULTING
IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JUST
STRENGTHENS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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