399
FXUS63 KGLD 210939
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
339 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2019
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536 WAS CANCELLED AT 11:41 PM MDT --
AS THUNDERSTORMS BECAME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AND WERE
NO LONGER ANTICIPATED TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF STANDING WATER ON COUNTY ROAD 20 (~1 MILE
SOUTH OF HWY 96) IN GREELEY COUNTY (WHICH HAS SINCE RECEDED),
FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED/REPORTED -- AND ONGOING ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY EXITING THE TRI-STATE AREA AS THEY TRACK
NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN MIND, FLASH FLOODING IS NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED TO POSE A HAZARD, AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT SUN JUL 21 2019
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT TONIGHT AND SHOWS THE TRI-STATE AREA BEING IMPACTED BY
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL BE QUIET DUE TO AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WE WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT TO BEING MORE
ZONAL. STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUIDANCE
IS FAVORING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE COLORADO / KANSAS AND
COLORADO / NEBRASKA BORDER, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WENT WITH THE NATIONAL
BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED POPS.
MONDAY, HIGHS WILL SIT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, AND WILL
TREND UPWARDS DAILY BRINGING US BACK UP IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
VFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE THE STORM ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 45KTS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED AT KITR WITH THIS LINE, ALONG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO A MILE. AM EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THE LINE MOVES
THROUGH KGLD. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY BEHIND THE INITIAL
LINE OF STORMS, BUT THEN FALL AGAIN AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS
IN MORE HUMID AIR.
FOR KMCK, THE STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS BY THAT TIME. GUSTY
WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH. AM NOT SURE HOW LONG THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...JTL
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