537
FXUS63 KGLD 210530
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA, WITH A LOW RISK FOR QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS THURSDAY IN TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2025
SCATTERED VIRGA/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, BUT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
FOR LOWS. ON WEDNESDAY, WILL BE UNDER A FAST ZONAL/SLIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OR
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE, SO CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A STRONGER OR
EVEN LOW END SEVERE STORM, WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL/GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE THREATS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2025
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE REGION IS ON THE BACK END OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN
RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEM A FAIRLY STOUT 700MB JET OF 50-55 KNOTS
DRAPED FROM THE BLACK HILL INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS IN PLACE
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY; SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO AS WELL. A THIS TIME NOT
ANTICIPATED ANY BLOWING DUST OTHER THAN SOME VERY LOCALIZED
NEAR FIELDS AS WINDS DON'T APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH AND 2-2.5 C/KM
LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP WHICH SHOULD HELP FILTER DUST
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOULD ANY DUST GET KICKED UP THE MAIN
IMPACT WOULD SEEM TO BE DEGRADED AIR QUALITY DUE TO A HAZE IN
THE SKY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, THE REGION LIES IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 700MB AND 500MB JET, THIS ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 305K LEVEL SEEMS TO WARRANT A
15-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND A 5-15% CHANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT RUN OF GUIDANCE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF
NOT SHOWING ANY OR VERY LITTLE MUCAPE SO ANY THREAT OF LIGHTNING
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%). LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN
KIT CARSON AND SOUTHWEST YUMA COUNTY WHERE SOME FROST MAY
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WINDS LIGHTEN TO
AROUND 5-10 MPH, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY END UP MITIGATING,
WHICH IS THE REASONING FOR HOLDING OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORY,
THE FROST POTENTIAL BUT GIVEN THAT THE AREA IS WELL PAST ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST FREEZE DATE WILL INTRODUCE FROST INTO THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGHER IMPACTS.
WEDNESDAY, MEAGER MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE A TAD BIT WARMER IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY (NOT AS BREEZY AS
TODAY) TO THE AREA AS WINDS GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THIS SAME
DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
STORMS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
ROUGHLY ACROSS THE I70 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN KANSAS AND AS THE
DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH IT MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER
DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS MAY OCCUR BUT ONLY A COUPLE
HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND STRONG WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS IN PLACE THINK MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE STORMS OR SHOWERS
WILL GET SHEARED APART.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT,A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN MORE WESTERLY
WHICH HELP MITIGATE THAT FOG POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE THEN
AGAIN FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S; IF WINDS CAN
BECOME WESTERLY QUICKER THEN LOW TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2025
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROUGHING
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A WARM FRONT
ALSO IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL
WHICH WITH THE TROUGHING MAY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK.
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW EACH
OF THESE FEATURES SETS UP. OVERALL AM SEEING A PRETTY DECENT
SIGNAL AT SOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH IS A TYPICAL SIGNAL
FOR THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, CURRENTLY
THINKING THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE THE RELATIVE FAVORED
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH IS FAVORED IN NUMEROUS ENSEMBLE
MEMBER SOLUTIONS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE
ROUGHLY THE SAME PATTERN INDICATES PLENTY OF SHEAR AND CAPE IN
PLACE. IT IS HOWEVER WAY TO FAR OUT TO WITH CONFIDENCE PIN
POINT OUT ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS OR EXACT LOCATIONS WHERE THE
THREAT MAY BE THE RELATIVE HIGHEST AT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE NEXT HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST DAY CURRENTLY APPEARING TO BE
FRIDAY. THERE IS THEN DECENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
COOLER AIR AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOVE
DOWN INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER
IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE, LESS THAN 20%, FOR AN AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM AT KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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