159
FXUS63 KGLD 090601
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96. A FEW
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO IS THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM, SUSTAINED BY A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 20 KTS PROVIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT. BOTH
MECHANISMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 09Z WITH STORMS MOVING OUT TO THE
EAST BY 12Z. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW, WITH AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST OF 50-55 MPH POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE MOVING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING INTO AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING 09-15Z.
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE MORE EXPANSIVE AND TAKE UNTIL 18Z OR SO TO
SCATTER OUT.
A BROAD RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. THE FRONT
WILL SETTLE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW. MAIN
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT, OUTFLOW WILL INITIATE NEW CONVECTION NORTHWARD INTO
KANSAS TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOW, LIMITED TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF WIND GUSTS
OF 50-60 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL END NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING.
ON THURSDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED WITH DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST AS THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN
COLORADO, BUT OTHERWISE NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE FORECAST. CAMS
ARE CURRENTLY DRY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
STARTING FRIDAY, ELONGATED ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN CONUS WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING OVER THE U.S.
AND CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONTS COULD
PASS BY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE (75%) THAT SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF I-70.
HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (25-40%) THAT THIS
WILL BE SEVERE AS THE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE
AS WIND SHEAR WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND WEAK. THE MAIN POTENTIAL
HAZARD WILL BE SMALL HAIL AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT CAPE OVER 1000
J/KG AND A HIGH LAPSE RATE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (25%) FOR CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. SATURDAY NIGHT,
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW, BUT WILL INCREASE AT
MIDNIGHT NEAR US 283. THE MAIN POTENTIAL CONDITIONS OF
INTEREST ARE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWATS) IS FORECAST TO BE IN 1.55 INCHES, CAPE ABOVE 1200 J/KG,
AND A "LOW" MELTING LAYER BELOW 16,000 FEET. ON SUNDAY, STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH CHANCES RANGING
FROM 20 TO 60%. FOR NOW, THE BETTER CHANCES FAVOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE AS A
POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. WHILE
THERE IS VARIABILITY ON WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN THE EVENING. WHICH EVER DAY THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW 80S SATURDAY AS THE OVERNIGHT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
(50-70%) THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD OF 10F
DEGREES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE THAT COULD PUT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO FALL
FROM THE SUMMER HEAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS SHOW KGLD WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z BEFORE MOVING OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, LESS THAN 20%, THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT KMCK.
TOWARDS SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING KMCK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 18Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK/MOELLER
AVIATION...024
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