906
FXUS63 KGLD 280834
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE CO-KS-NE BORDER ~6-11 PM MDT.
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT. LOWER
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND EASTERN EXTENT.
- WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90'S TO LOWER 100'S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE(S) FROM PRIOR FORECAST REASONING AND
EXPECTATIONS.
TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT A BIT RESULTING IN
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS.
WILL SEE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE
AND MOVING EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KTS ACROSS COLORADO BUT INCREASING
TO NEAR 30 KTS AT THE KANSAS BORDER. STORMS WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, WITH
ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES, LESS THAN 20%, OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND AMPLIFY INTO MISSOURI BY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. IN THIS PATTERN WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AT NIGHT. HOWEVER, BOTH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE WEAK AND THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
MID 90S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE FALLING BELOW 20% AT
TIMES, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WE DON'T SEE TOO MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE
COMPARED TO THIS WEEK, WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES (AT LEAST 15%)
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ON MONDAY WE START THE WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A 850-700
MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MOST MID TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE EVENING TO POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN REGARDS TO
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, SO FAR CAPE REMAINS A CONCERN AS A
LIMITING FACTOR WITH GFS GUIDANCE FAVORING LESS THAN 500 J/KG
OVER OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDS SHEAR IS STILL SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE WITH 25-30 KTS OF SURFACE-3 KM SHEAR AND ~30 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 IN, WE
COULD SEE MORE RAIN SHOWERS THAN STORMS IF ANY ACTIVITY DOES
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WORK TO STRENGTHEN A NEAR-SURFACE
TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE SHORTWAVES MAY HELP
WITH THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SO FAR GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MORE ISOLATED/POP-UP STYLE
ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING IS
FAIRLY LOW (<20%). MODELS, INCLUDING THE NBM, ARE LEANING MORE
TOWARDS CHANCES TAPERING OFF DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO DOWN, THE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE
ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE
TEMPERATURES "COOLEST" WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES
MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS CANNOT BE RULED-OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (00-05Z SAT). LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE; LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT
MENTION OF CONVECTION WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SE TO S WINDS
AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME S OR SSW AND INCREASE TO 13-18 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024/VINCENT
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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