407  
FXUS63 KGLD 201121  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
421 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...A HIGH THIN VEIL OF CLOUDS PREVAILS  
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 20S FOR TEMPS...BUT SOME LOCALES ARE AROUND  
30 ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE NO SNOWPACK EXISTS ON THE GROUND.  
WINDS ARE FROM THE WSW AROUND 5-15MPH.  
 
GOING INTO TODAY...THE REGION WILL SEE YET ANOTHER DRY DAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH  
IS STARTING TO FORM OVER THE FRONT RANGE/EASTERN ROCKIES AND WILL  
ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY FETCH IN THE SURFACE WINDS THRU THE DAY. THIS  
DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION WILL GIVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S  
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 25...AND EAST OF THERE DUE TO SNOWPACK ON THE  
GROUND...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S W/ A SPOTS NEAR THE 50F MARK.  
 
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LEE-SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK EAST OFF THE  
FRONT RANGE...DEVELOPING A LOW AT ITS BASE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION AN ESE SURFACE  
WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THESE SURFACE WINDS COMING IN  
OVER EASTERN AREAS AND STILL W/ SNOW ON THE GROUND...FOG IS POSSIBLE  
SO HAVE A MENTION OF AROUND 03Z-12Z TUESDAY.  
 
WHILE THE FOG HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO PERSIST EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO  
BEGIN TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVE S/E OF THE CWA.  
WNW AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP START OFF TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST  
OVER THE AREA. 500/700 MB TROUGH FOLLOWS THE SURFACE FEATURE ON A  
WESTERLY PATH INTO THE PLAINS REGION OVER THE CWA.  
 
THIS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY  
IN NORTHERN AREAS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRACK. WHILE SOME  
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE  
LOW TRACKS INITIALLY...DO EXPECT DECENT MOISTURE TO WRAP INTO  
NORTHERN AREAS TO AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL  
SUGGEST A RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION LATE MONDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING  
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST CAA  
WRAPS INTO THE REGION...SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FOR  
NOW...LOOKING FOR SNOW TOTALS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES  
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE  
70...2 TO ALMOST A LOCALIZED 6 INCHES AS YOU APPROACH NW ZONES  
ESPECIALLY IN YUMA COUNTY IN NE COLORADO. DECENT 850 MB  
FRONTOGENESIS SWINGING THRU NW ZONES WILL AID IN BRINGING HIGHEST  
POTENTIAL TOTALS.  
 
THE OTHER WX ISSUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS STORM  
WILL BE THE SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  
INCREASING MODEL CONFIDENCE OF THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING A STEADY 20-30  
MPH W/ GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THESE SPEEDS DO BRING ABOUT THE CONCERN FOR  
BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE BEST SNOWFALL TOTALS  
SHOULD OCCUR. THE NEXT INCOMING SHIFT WILL GET ONE MORE LOOK AT  
NEWER GUIDANCE TO DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL WINTER WX PRODUCT ISSUANCE.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM CLEAR THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...EXPECTING A  
CLEARING TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING OVER THE AREA.  
 
FOR TEMPS...HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE WARMEST WEST AWAY FROM SURFACE  
RIDGE AND ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK. LOOKING FOR 45-55F WEST AND UPPER  
30S TO MID 40S EAST. BY TUESDAY...LOW 30S FOR ALL LOCALES. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL TREND FROM 20S TONIGHT TO THE TEENS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  
WITH THESE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS...WIND CHILL READINGS  
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION AS THE TROUGH  
MOVES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED  
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STRONG EXTENSION OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE  
ARCTIC REGION CYCLES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH  
FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT BACK NORTH AND WEAKEN. THE  
WEAKENING OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ALLOWS THE RIDGE  
SITTING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN TO INTRUDE EASTWARD SATURDAY  
NIGHT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD DUE TO  
SEPARATION FROM THE MAIN RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA  
AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH COMING IN BEHIND IT.  
 
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 30S. TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS INTO THE 40S AND  
LOW 50S AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED  
HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS NEAR SCT010 BY 06Z  
MONDAY. WINDS...WSW 10-15KTS THRU 17Z THEN NNW 5-10KTS. BY  
22Z...SE AROUND 10KTS. LLWS 06Z-12Z MONDAY 220@35KTS.  
 
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCATTERED  
HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS NEAR SCT010 BY 06Z  
MONDAY. SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR 6SM ALSO POSSIBLE TO START AROUND 06Z  
MONDAY. WINDS...W 5-10KTS THRU 18Z THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY  
22Z...E AROUND 10KTS BECOMING ESE BY 06Z MONDAY. LLWS 06Z-12Z  
MONDAY 200@30KTS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...NEWMAN  
AVIATION...JN  
 
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