152
FXUS63 KGLD 072001
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- STORM AND SHOWER CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS STARTING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 111 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS STARS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA, AN 850 MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CWA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STORMS MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE DECAYING AS THEY REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 0-3Z. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FULLY END BY 6-
9Z. MOST LIKELY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WINDS IN THE 40-55
KTS RANGE, AND HAIL UP TO AROUND 1 INCH. THE WIND MAY LEAD TO
BLOWING DUST, CREATING REDUCED VISIBILITY. FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION,
LOCALIZED PLUMES OF DUST ARE THE MORE LIKELY DUST THREAT, VERSUS A
HABOOB.
WEDNESDAY IS A STRONGER COPY OF TUESDAY. STORMS LOOK TO BE ENTERING
THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 22-0Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS
INCREASES WITH TOMORROW, AND IF A BOWING SEGMENT IS ABLE TO FORM,
WINDS UP AROUND 70 MPH ARE LIKELY. THIS INCREASES THE BLOWING DUST
THREAT, AND BOTH PLUMES AND A HABOOB ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HAIL THREAT
INCREASES, BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY LOW. MOST LIKELY HAIL WILL
BE LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES, BUT AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG STORM COULD
PRODUCE 2 INCH HAIL.
THERE IS MASSIVE DISAGREEMENT IN COVERAGE FOR STORMS TOMORROW. ONE
SOLUTION HAS STORMS ENTERING THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA, TURNING
SOUTHBOUND, AND DECAYING. THIS WOULD KEEP HAZARDS LIMITED TO WEST OF
U.S. 385 AND END THE THREAT BY 5Z. CONVERSELY, THE OTHER OPTION IS
THE STORMS FORM INTO A BROKEN QLCS AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS INCREASES THE WIND THREAT, AND INTRODUCES AN EXTREMELY
LOW FLOODING RISK AS TRAILING, BACK-BUILDING STORMS WOULD HAVE A 10%
CHANCE OF OCCURRING. THIS SECOND SCENARIO COULD HAVE CONVECTION
PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 9Z IN THE CWA.
BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING STORMS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THESE STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING TO START FIRES WITH THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
***THURSDAY/FRIDAY***
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY ZONAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ALLOWED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A CONVERGENCE ZONE CENTERED
APPROXIMATELY IN EASTERN COLORADO. LREF AND NBM 24 HR PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY ACROSS THIS ZONE. SURFACE CAPE (A
MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG SEEM LIKELY AS WELL ACCORDING TO LREF GUIDANCE. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. GFS AND EC GUIDANCE APPEARS
CONSISTENT THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY ONLY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MOST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 35 KTS OR LESS OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. HOWEVER, IF 75TH PERCENTILE OR BETTER 0-500 MB SHEAR CAN BE
EXPERIENCED (35 KTS OR GREATER), SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ALLOWED
TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY IS AROUND 5-10% AT THIS TIME.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY STICK AROUND INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN, THOUGH APPEAR TO BE LESS LIKELY
THAN THURSDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN
0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT IS STILL ONLY 45% OR LESS. SIMILAR CAPE VALUES
TO THURSDAY ARE IN PLAY ACROSS THIS ZONE, THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
MAY BE EVEN WEAKER. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING FRIDAY IS
5% OR LESS.
***SATURDAY-TUESDAY***
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S. DRYING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MAY HELP PREVENT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM RISING TO THE
LEVEL OF A HEAT ADVISORY AS WELL. PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS NBM 24 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SHOWS
PROBABILITIES AROUND 10% OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TO SEE
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE. WE ARE EXPECTING A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES, WHICH WOULD BRING IN
SHOWERS AND SOME CHAOTIC WINDS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS TO
EITHER OF THE AIRPORTS, BUT BETWEEN 3-9Z, THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
**KGLD VISIBILITY: PARTS ARE ON ORDER, THERE IS NO ESTIMATED
RETURN TO SERVICE AT THIS TIME. UNTIL THEN, AMENDMENTS FOR
VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED FOR KGLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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