896
FXUS63 KGLD 020444
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
944 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES TONIGHT.
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST MONDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH ARE FORECAST.
- HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
HAVE NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT AS WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE EVENING GOES
ON. IT'S VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE COLDEST THE TEMPERATURES GET
TONIGHT ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES INTO THOSE AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT A PERIOD FOR SOME PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
STARTING AROUND 4AM CT AND LASTING THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
OVERALL SATURATION LAYER ISN'T OVERLY DEEP BUT SIMILAR LOOKING
SOUNDINGS WERE SEEN ON THURSDAY AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ABLE TO
OCCUR THAT MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA PLUS UPSTREAM HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL
WHICH IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR MONDAY, HAVE NUDGED DOWN DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO LOWER DEW POINTS GETTING MIXED
DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING
15%. THIS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WOULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED IF NOT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (CO), WALLACE AND GREELEY COUNTIES. IF THE
FRONT WERE TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKER WHICH WAS ALLUDED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THEN HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN AROUND
20%.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
TONIGHT, THE RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS LOWERING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S.
FOR MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO BE DEAMPLIFIED AND REPLACED BY A TROUGH THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DURING THE
MORNING, AND THEN COOL A FEW DEGREES GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS SHOULD FURTHER BE HELPED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE TEMPERATURES BEING KEPT A BIT COOLER
AND KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20S, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THAT BEING SAID, WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO REACH SPEEDS OF 20-35 MPH, SO USE
EXTRA CAUTION IF BURNING. OTHERWISE, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
DUE TO DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS.
MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 20S DUE TO
A MIX OF WINDS HOVERING AROUND 10 MPH KEEPING US MIXED OUT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL LINGERING AROUND 20 DEGREES.
TUESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, LARGELY REMAINING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS, WE
SHOULD END UP IN A DRY SLOT AND HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE
COLDEST AIR LAGGING BEHIND, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO
THE 50S DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA AND HELP BEGIN TO SHIFT THE TROUGH MORE TO THE EAST. AS IT DOES
SO, IT IS FORECAST TO BRING THE COLDER AIR MASS DOWN INTO THE AREA.
AS IT DOES SO, THE AIR SHOULD BEING TO SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND MAYBE SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO START AS RAIN, BUT SHOULD SEE SNOW OR MAYBE EVEN SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST WITH MOST GUIDANCE HAVING NO QPF AND THE REST HAVING AROUND
0.05-0.10". SO WITH THE LIGHT ACCUMULATION AND WARM
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THIS, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONCERN FOR
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
A SPLIT FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY
ESTABLISHED BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PROVIDING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST REGION. A MODEST 500-MB JET STREAK OF 60-70 KTS LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES, AND COULD BE PROVIDING ENOUGH RISING
MOTION TO PRODUCE SNOW DUSTINGS ACROSS THE CWA. TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, ONE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, AND
ANOTHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST KANSAS. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
MOST SNOWFALL IS FORECASTED TO BE COMPLETED BY THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD STILL REACH THE LOW-50S,
BUT PROLONGED SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. WESTERLY,
DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CWA AS
EARLY AS THE LATE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSING LOW, WHICH COULD PROMOTE HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID-60S THURSDAY. LOW RH AIR FROM THE MOUNTAINS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
COULD FLIP SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY. IF
THIS OCCURS, RH COULD BE PREVENTED FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS,
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S INSTEAD OF THE 60S WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. BASED ON NBM AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS ABOUT
80-90% CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE A NORTHERN COMPONENT
BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STILL, A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED IF THERE IS A DELAY IN THE COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL, AND WESTERLY
WINDS ARE ALLOWED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST, REDEVELOPMENT
MAY BEGIN FOR THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY ALLOW
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA TO RETURN. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WOULD REESTABLISH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-
60S, BUT PROLONGED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID-50S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO ENTER THE UNITED STATES FROM THE
PACIFIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE AS TO
HOW THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE HANDLED. SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT
IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE TWO LARGER TROUGHS IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN PACIFIC, OR IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO GO AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHAT IS MOST
CERTAIN REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION AHEAD OF A MODEST SURFACE LOW AS EARLY AS
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF THE CWA CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-
60S. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW CUTS OFF THE RETURN FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE 10 DEGREES
HIGHER OR LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MOVING FORWARD FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE SPLIT FLOW IN THE WEST COULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON WHEN THIS WILL TAKE PLACE. SOME
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS LONG AS
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE, THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PERIODS OF ABOVE AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENTS. HOWEVER, IF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWED TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WARMING COULD BE FAVORED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 939 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR GLD WHILE
MCK REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
WELL. THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF SOME FOG AFFECTING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MCK STARTING AROUND 12Z. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY IS FORECAST
TO LEAD TO 25-30 KNOT WIND GUSTS AND A SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR EACH TERMINAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
STRONGEST LYING AT GLD. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO WANE AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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