020  
FXUS63 KGLD 290511  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1111 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING DENSE.  
 
- SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.  
 
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 810 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS REVOLVES AROUND  
SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY  
COLORADO. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP  
TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE  
MORE HOURS AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO KIT CARSON COUNTY AND  
CHEYENNE COUNTY. POPS WERE UPDATED AND RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 06-08Z.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
FOG IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE FULLY ERODED  
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IT LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST THE  
LONGEST. AS A RESULT OF THE ANTICIPATED LINGERING OF CLOUD  
COVER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE LOWERED HIGH  
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
SLOWLY VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS A  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE ARE AGAIN  
WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. FIRST,  
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS  
THE AREA WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH. THIS  
AFTERNOON, FORCING FOR THE DAY IS RATHER MEAGER BUT IS  
CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND  
INTERACTING WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN WEAK  
CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS AFTER 6PM MT  
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. THE NORTHERN MOST AS  
IT MOVES THROUGH YUMA COUNTY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES  
THE NE/KS STATE LINE DUE TO LOSS OF FORCING AS IT SHOULD BE  
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH WEAK COLD POOL PROPERTIES ALLOWING  
IT TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF YUMA COUNTY. THE 2ND  
CLUSTER FAVORING SOUTHERN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES  
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WALLACE AND GREELEY COUNTIES AS ISENTROPIC  
ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NOT THE GREATEST SET  
UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER THERE MAY BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS  
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25-30 KNOTS; ALBEIT LITTLE  
CAPE AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM SHOULD HELP LESSEN THE  
SEVERE THREAT. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH  
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD FOLLOWED BY HAIL OF PENNY TO PERHAPS  
NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  
 
FOG IS AGAIN FORECAST TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED EASTERLY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIR MASS  
REMAINS IN PLACE. FURTHER TO THE WEST FOG MAY BE MORE TRANSIENT  
AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6-10MPH WHICH SHOULD HELP  
KEEP THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE RELATIVELY  
MORE MIXED. THE OTHER PART THAT MAY IMPACT FOG ACROSS THE WEST  
IS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT, IF SO THEN  
FOG WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN. THE FAVORED AREA FOR DENSE  
FOG AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A TRENTON TO  
LEOTI LINE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RECENTLY MOIST FROM  
THE RAINS LAST NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST.  
 
FRIDAY, FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AGAIN ACROSS THE  
EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE DAY AGAIN WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES. A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE CO LOCATED WITH A SURFACE LOW  
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO IS FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF  
LIFT. CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO BREAK FOR SOME INSTABILTY TO  
DEVELOP CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG; RRFS DOES  
HAVE THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY BREAKING AND HIGHER DEW POINTS  
RESULTING IN AROUND 2000 J/KG. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE  
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR PROGGED AROUND 35-45 KNOTS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL  
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL AS NEARLY  
ALL GUIDANCE HAS AROUND 6-6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES;  
HOWEVER THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH MAY  
BE ABLE TO HELP OVERCOME IT. HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN SIZE LOOKS  
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS A NOTICEABLE DRY LAYER IN BETWEEN  
850-700MB VIA 15Z RAP SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH A -20C LEVEL AROUND  
25000-26000 FEET WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT  
HAIL IF A ROBUST UP DRAFT CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF. THE PEAK TIME FOR  
THIS THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM 3PM-8PM MT WITH LOCALES WEST OF  
TRENTON TO COLBY CURRENTLY FAVORED AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY SHIFT  
IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKER OR HOLD ON LONGER. ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA  
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AFTER 9PM MT. AT THIS TIME NOT  
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
SATURDAY, THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BE IN NW FLOW AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LEADING  
TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT FOR THE AREA. SOME  
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
BETTER CAPE THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AND WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS  
IN PLACE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE DICTATED BY HOW LONG FRIDAY  
NIGHT'S SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA AND IF THE  
ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER TO REALIZE THOSE HIGH OF CAPE  
VALUES. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND MOVES SLOWLY TO  
THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL EJECTING MULTIPLE  
VORTICITY MAXIMA THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUING HIT AND MISS RAIN  
CHANCES ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE  
DAY SUNDAY. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND COOLER AIR AT  
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE OF  
FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE TO FORM. 12Z NAM SHOWS A 700MB JET OF AROUND  
30-35 KNOTS WHICH IF ENOUGH MIXING WERE TO OCCUR BREEZY WINDS  
MAY BE ABLE TO BE REALIZED; WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER  
CONSISTENCY WITH GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS FEATURE BEFORE  
ADJUSTING THE FORECAST FOR THIS. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO RETURN  
TO THE WESTERN CONUS AND WITH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE  
A BIT ELONGATED TO THE EAST SHOULD HELP KEEP WESTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY.  
 
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO ENSUE INTO THE  
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR  
RAIN REMAINING ACROSS THE EAST AS THE AREA WARMS INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 80S DUE TO THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY. MID WEEK; VERY  
GOOD CONSENSUS WITH ENSEMBLES OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING  
THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE  
POSITIONING, BUT AS THIS APPEARS TO BE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN THESE  
COLD FRONTS NORMALLY END UP SETTING UP FURTHER TO THE WEST. WITH  
THIS IN MIND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH AND LOW  
TEMPERATURES END UP IN THE LOWER ECHELON OF THE FORECAST  
ENVELOPE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW  
TO MID 40S. AT THIS TIME ITS HARD TO SEE IF THIS WILL BE A DRY  
FRONT OR IF PRECIPITATION WILL FORM ALONG IT AS GUIDANCE IS ALL  
OF THE PLACE WITH TIMING. TIMING AGAIN WILL BE KEY AND ALSO HOW  
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS WITH THE MEMBERS THAT BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH  
FURTHER TO THE WEST AND ACTUALLY HAS IT THE COLDEST HAS THE  
FRONT MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY  
WHICH IF SOIL MOISTURE RESPONDS CORRECTLY THEN BLOWING DUST MAY  
BE A CONCERN, BUT IT WAS WAY TO EARLY TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN AS  
THIS IS STILL 5+ DAYS OUT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING LOWER ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SHORTLY AT KGLD AND KMCK.  
IFR CEILINGS AT KGLD MAY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED THROUGH 09Z  
BY LIGHT RAIN SPREADING DOWNSTREAM OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN  
COLORADO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IS AT KMCK CLOSER  
TO DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A  
MENTION OF PREVAILING LIFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
REGION WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 14Z.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...GRANTHAM  
SHORT TERM...TRIGG  
LONG TERM...TRIGG  
AVIATION...GRANTHAM  
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