614
FXUS63 KGLD 150842
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 AM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN STRONG WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, AS ARE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE THE COOLEST IN MONTHS! BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURN TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A LOW COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST, WITH GUSTS LIKELY IN THE
25-35 KTS RANGE, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WE
ARE ALSO EXPECTING STRATUS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF U.S. 36, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE IT WILL FIRE OFF
SOME CONVECTION. MOST LIKELY, WE ARE JUST LOOKING AT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH LIGHTNING AND THUNDER. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 2-5%
CHANCE A STRONG CELLS FORMS AND PRODUCES A 60 MPH WIND GUST, HAIL UP
TO AN INCH, OR FLASH FLOODING. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO START ALONG
AND SOUTH OF U.S. 36 AROUND 10Z, AND BY 16Z IT SHOULD BE CONFINED
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NORTON TO TRIBUNE. LINGERING WEAK
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON, SLOWING MOVING
EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
WITH CAA FROM THE COLD FRONT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER, WE SHOULD BE
GETTING OUR FIRST GOOD TASTE OF AUTUMN TODAY! HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AND UPPER 60S FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE THE CLOUDS BREAK LATE THIS
MORNING, WHICH WOULD INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AFTER SUNSET, AN INVERTED 850 MB RIDGE AXIS STEMMING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL WORK TO WEAKEN THE WINDS AND GRADUALLY
MAKE THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD
OF THE RIDGE IN THE EVENING, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO CAUSE
SOME WEAK CONVECTION TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF KS 25. CHANCES FOR
THIS CONVECTION TO OCCUR RANGE FROM 30-50%, INCREASING FURTHER TO
THE EAST. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE 3-9Z. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.
TONIGHT, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA, BUT DUE TO THE
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 50S, MAYBE
LOW 60S IN GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT'S BEEN PLAGUING THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS WILL RETROGRADE AND MOVE WEST.
THIS WILL WORK TO CLEAR OUT THE SKY WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL PROMOTE GUSTS IN THE 15-30 KTS RANGE
AND DRAW IN WARM AIR, PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 80 FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT A COMBINATION OF LINGERING
CLOUDS AND A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND WILL KEEP PARTS OF
THE CWA CAPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE 500 MB BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WILL BE
SITTING OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS GIVES US ANOTHER 30-50%
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 9Z THURSDAY
MORNING. THE NBM IS REALLY PUSHING FOR THIS CONVECTION, BUT LOW-
LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING, REDUCING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
CONVECTION OCCURRING. LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 60S AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS, AND WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
90. THE CYCLE CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LASTING INTO THE NIGHT BEING POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE
ROCKIES WILL BE SLIDING TOWARDS THE EAST OVER NORTHERN CONUS
THAT WILL HELP BRING IN A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY ONWARD, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER. ON
MONDAY, GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE RIDGING TO THE
NORTH, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENCY THAT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WOULD BE GOING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FROM SATURDAY ONWARD,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES IN AND A POSSIBLE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (40-55%) THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN IN THE
70S.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (75%) FOR
OVERNIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
FRONT BEING FURTHER WEST THAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
ON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN STARTING TO DETERIORATE, CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ALSO
BEGINS TO DECREASE HEAVILY (75% TO 30%) AND WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS FAVORING SOUTH OF I-70 AS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
UPDATE 0840Z: HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING.
IFR AND POTENTIALLY VLIFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK AND
ARE EXPECTED FOR KGLD THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING
IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BRINGING WITH IT A WAVE OF
LOW STRATUS, A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR KGLD, AND A 15% CHANCE
OF FOG FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD. WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT WINDS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED. LIKELY WIND
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 25-35 KTS RANGE, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. CEILINGS MAY GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON FOR KGLD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH
SITES. TUESDAY NIGHT, STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN FOR BOTH SITES,
AND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL/MOELLER
AVIATION...CA
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