118
FXUS63 KGLD 220811
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY TODAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT MAY BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
RETREATING A BIT ON TUESDAY. THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY
CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE TEENS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF THE 25 MPH CRITERIA FOR GUSTS.
HOWEVER ON TUESDAY THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. MIXED LAYER WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING 20-50% IN THE NBM, HIGHEST FURTHER NORTH, WITH A MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-18%, LOWEST IN COLORADO. SO, THERE IS
SOME MODEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S FOR MCCOOK TO HILL CITY TO THE LOWER 40S IN COLORADO. THE
WARM UP BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOLLOWED
BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TONIGHT, THEN 20S AND 30S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BE ACROSS THE SW CONUS RESULTING IN A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
RESULTING IN NW FLOW FOR THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. A 10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE IS CURRENTLY SEEN
WHICH SEEMS TO BE DO TO VARIATIONS OF THE LOCATION OF A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
EXTREMELY TRICKY AS THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL DICTATE WINDS
AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH HOW QUICKLY A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. ASSUMING A FURTHER NORTH LOW THEN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. IF
THE LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH THEN FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CURRENTLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ECMWF-AI WHICH
TYPICALLY HANDLES FRONTAL TIMING BETTER HAS IT MOVING THROUGH A
FEW HOURS SOONER. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A WALL OF DUST AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL BASED ON 00Z GFS DATA WHERE A CORRIDOR
OF 50-60 KNOT 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE. 18Z ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND A LOT WEAKER ON THE 850MB WINDS AS
WELL SO IT'S NOT A FOR SURE THING THAT IT WILL HAPPEN BUT IS
SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. THE 12Z EFI DOES SHOW A
SHIFT OF TAILS UP ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WHICH DOES
BRING SOME MERIT THAT THE GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONFIDENCE IN ANY DUST IS CURRENTLY LOW
AROUND 5- 10% AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL WITH THE FRONT AS WELL BUT
CURRENTLY WHAT IS BEING SEEN ON BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CROSS
SECTIONS IS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AT LEAST WHAT IS BEING
PLOTTED OUT WITH 3 HOUR AND 6 HOUR DATA CURRENTLY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 50S TO 60S. CURRENT
HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TEENS CURRENTLY BUT AM
A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ON WIND AT THIS TIME AS SURFACE TROUGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH, WHICH COULD PUT US AT RISK OF
BEING IN THE AXIS OF NAY TROUGHS WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDS
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
NEXT WEEKEND, VERY LOW CONFIDENCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS
THIS TIME AS THERE IS 35-40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO GUIDANCE
STRUGGLING WITH THE SOUTHWARD POSITIONING OF A COLDER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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