747
FXUS63 KGLD 180636
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1236 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND 30 ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
- LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36, AND GRAHAM COUNTY HAVE
BEEN PLACED IN A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST OF 25-30 MPH
WILL ALLOW FIRES TO RAPIDLY GROW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 14Z, WE SHOULD HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND THE FREEZE WARNING SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ON TIME. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, AN 850 MB COLORADO HIGH WILL
FUNNEL IN NORTHWESTERLY AIR INTO THE REGION, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEASONAL, AROUND 60 FOR HIGHS.
UNFORTUNATELY, RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
AGAIN AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST AROUND 20-30 KTS. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION. HOWEVER,
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36 ARE THE ONLY PLACES THAT
CURRENTLY HAVE AT LEAST 80% CONFIDENCE IN HITTING THESE CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST THREE HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
AREA, AND PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY LOOKING AT
ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT TO PREVENT WARNING FATIGUE WHEN
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.
SUNDAY, WE WARM BACK UP AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S. WE'LL
HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL WORK TO
KEEP THE SKIES MOST CLEAR, PROMOTING THAT WARMING. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 10%, BUT WINDS LARGELY REMAIN UNDER 20
KTS. GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE 20-23 KTS RANGE, LEADING TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITION, HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
STARTING SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITING AROUND WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. AT THE
850 MB LEVEL THERE LOOKS TO BE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OVER TEXAS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD, SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS HOWEVER LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER TEENS WITH WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES SHOWING VALUES INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THERE IS ALSO A 30-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 25
MPH GUSTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. THERE IS SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ESPECIALLY HOW LOW THE RH VALUES ARE BUT IF WE WERE TO MEET
CRITERIA IT WOULD MAINLY BE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING RH VALUES LESS THAN
15% BEING 50-95% WITH THE HIGHER PERCENTAGES OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE LOWER WITH THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 25 MPH
ONLY TO BE IN THE LOWER TEENS AND PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN KANSAS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MOVING ON TO TUESDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS INTO THE
40S. WINDS AND RH VALUES LOOK TO BE VERY SIMILAR WITH RH VALUES IN
THE LOWER TEENS. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA. HOWEVER ONE SCENARIO TO LOOK AT IS THAT THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE NBM IS SHOWING GUSTS REACHING FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA WITH GUST UP TO 35 MPH. LOOKING AT THE SPREAD FROM 90TH-
10TH SHOWS THERE BEING ABOUT A 25 MPH DIFFERENCE WHICH LOWERS THE
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE WINDS REACH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA FOR BOTH
DAYS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR TRANSITION DAY FOR WEATHER. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE MOVES OUT AND A TROUGH MOVES IN WHICH COULD
BRING BOTH PRECIPATION CHANCES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOOKING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THERE LOOKS TO BE A DRYLINE THAT SETS UP OVER
OUR CWA. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY IT
WILL BE LOCATED AS SOME MODELS SHOW THE DRY LINE BEING OVER KS HWY
27 AND SOME SHOW IT FURTHER EASTWARD OVER KS HWY 25. THERE IS A
CHANCE TO SEE PRECIPATION AND FIRE WEATHER CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE DRYLINE THERE ARE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S THIS CAN HELP STORM POTENTIAL. NOW THE DRY SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE, THERE IS A SIGNAL OF SEEING FIRE WEATHER. THE WIND GUSTS
HAVE A RANGE OF 20-45 MPH. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THERE IS A 50-
90% OF EXCEEDING 25 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS
ALSO SHOWING UP TO 55 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR THE MAJORITY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THERE BEING 50-
90% OF SEEING VALUES LESS THAN 15%. LOOKING AT GFDI VALUES STARTING
AT 18Z WEDNESDAY VALUES BECOME HIGHER THAN 50 AND THEY DECREASE
AROUND 1Z THURSDAY. THE PEAK VALUES ARRIVE AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY WITH
VALUES UP TO 100. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SUPPORTING
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY.
SCENARIO ONE IS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
COULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA, BUT NOT AS
EXTREME AS WEDNESDAY. SCENARIO TWO WOULD BE THE SYSTEM LINGERS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPATION CHANCES BECOMES A CONCERN ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS FOR THE LOCATION AND TIMING
WILL NEED MORE INVESTIGATION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
FRIDAY SHOWS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN WITH THE POPS BEING IN
THE 20-30S MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF KS HWY 27. FOR
TEMPERATURES THE HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S-
40S. WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20-40 MPH RANGE. ONE THING TO NOTE THIS
IS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT THERE
ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS WILL FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUSTS IN THE
20-30 KTS RANGE ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AT KMCK.
AROUND SUNSET, WINDS WILL WEAKEN THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN
THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN WHAT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, INCREASING THE ICING
POTENTIAL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT ALSO INCREASING
DENSITY ALTITUDE DURING THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-016.
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252.
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079>081.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM MDT /2 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
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