949
FXUS63 KGLD 120519
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1019 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
AND MAY BRING PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
- FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. SMALL
THREAT (<10%) FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE BROAD,
SOMEWHAT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, LEE TROUGH WAS PRESENT IN COLORADO WITH SFC RIDGE OVER
EASTERN KS AND MO, RESULTING IN RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
DESPITE THE SHIFT OF THE WINDS TO THE NORTH, OVERALL AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES.
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING,
BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE HAD ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT TODAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN/SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AS COMPACT CLOSED
LOW SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY, STRONG
AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT ASCENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE OVERALL DRY
AIRMASS. IF SHOWERS DO FORM, ANY AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OF MORE CONCERN WILL
BE THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD AS A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCED ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL SHOWING A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND NORTHERLY EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, BUT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN VERY
STABLE KEEPING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF 0.1" OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. WHILE NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT AREA
WILL SEE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS, AGREE WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
THAT THIS IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY (30%).
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM LEADING
TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WHILE DIFFERENCES EMERGE WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS AND HOW SMALL SCALE IMPULSES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN WHICH WILL GREATLY IMPACT
SPECIFIC HAZARDS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE (50%) THAT FIRE DANGER WILL BE AT
NEAR OR CRITICAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY DUE TO WARM, DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IF STRONGEST WIND SCENARIO WERE TO OCCUR (<10%),
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT AREAS ALONG WITH A FEW PLUMES OF
BLOWING DUST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1017 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. KGLD HAS A 15-20% CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 6-12Z TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME ICING
CONCERNS. OVERALL, IT'S A GOOD DAY TO FLY!
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...CA
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