673
FXUS63 KGLD 312250
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
450 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
90S ON SUNDAY AND TRIPLE DIGITS ON MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHILE WINDS GUST AROUND
20-30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND 4-CORNERS (TODAY) WILL AMPLIFY AND EXTEND
NNE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS (SAT-SAT NIGHT). MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD.. ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE.. INTO ILLINOIS AND
NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY (SAT-SAT
NIGHT).
TODAY-TONIGHT: BREEZY (~25-35 MPH) NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
WILL WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE PROGRESSES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM (TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY) THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A COOLER, DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB DEWPOINTS 9-14C (COMPARED
TO 16-18C YESTERDAY) HAS ESSENTIALLY CLOSED THE DOOR ON
CONVECTION IN THE GOODLAND CWA, WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
(MLCIN) EXCEEDS INSTABILITY (MLCAPE) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, AND DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS BEEN UTTERLY SUPPRESSED. WITH A
MEAN WIND FROM THE NW (330 @ 15KT), RIGHT-MOVER MOTION FROM THE
N (360 @ 20KT) AND AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERN EXTENT TOWARD THE CO-KS BORDER, EAST OF
A LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON TO LA JUNTA, IN PARTICULAR..
CONVECTION MOVING WITH THE MEAN WIND (AN EASTWARD COMPONENT)
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE, THE STORMS MOST LIKELY
TO PERSIST; TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS /RIGHT-MOVERS/ DEVIATING TO
THE SOUTH, WILL PARALLEL (REMAIN WEST-OF) THE GOODLAND CWA.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A SLOW-
MOVING, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO THE EAST (OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY), MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.. AND A
RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS.. WILL PERSIST OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO,
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN, TODAY.. IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER
90'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DE-AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE THROUGH CANADA/US BORDER. COME MONDAY, WE BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT
MAY CREATE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA).
OVERALL FOR THE LONG TERM, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE HIGH 90S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WEDNESDAY
WE HAVE A BRIEF "COOL" DOWN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. WINDS FOR THE WEEK LOOK TO BE BREEZY FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. STARTING ON MONDAY, THE CWA'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE. AS EACH SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS
AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 10-20%.
FOR THIS PERIOD THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY, WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20%S. THE
LOWEST RH VALUES LOOK TO BE MAINLY WEST OF KS HWY 27. MOVING TO
GFDI, THE MAXIMUM VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-45 RANGE
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE VALUES WOULD
PROMOTE VERY HIGH FIRE GROWTH. WITH THIS BEING SAID, THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME.
MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH THE CHANGES OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20%S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE LOWEST VALUES AGAIN ARE FOR AREAS WEST
OF KS HWY 27. GUSTS ARE ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND IN
THE RANGE OF 20-30 MPH. GFDI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
30-59 FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION IS
MONDAY DOES HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS, SO DRY
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO POSE A RISK WHEREVER STORMS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. 10-15 KNOT NNE TO NE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER, THROUGH MOST.. IF NOT
ALL.. OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...VINCENT
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