712
FXUS63 KGLD 062316
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN DAILY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, IS FORECAST TO RETURN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- WARMING BACK INTO 100S OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
A HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL PERSIST AS WE HAVE A TROUGH NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA, WHICH IS A PRIME SETUP FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LEADING
TO DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES. TODAY, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES HAVE COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, LIKELY DUE TO LINGERING STRATUS.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE IS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LEADING TO A MILD COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS
A 10-15% CHANCE OF LEADING TO SOME STORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA. SPC HAS PUT THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR 50-
65+ MPH WINDS AND 0.75-2 INCH HAIL. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM AND
TAP INTO THE ENVIRONMENT, EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR
INITIATION IS LOW. CONVECTION LOOKS TO CEASE BY 5-6Z. THERE IS A
SECONDARY AREA THAT MAY DEVELOP AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO IN EASTERN
COLORADO BETWEEN I-70 AND U.S. 40. THIS WOULD BE FROM A BLOB OF 500
MB VORTICITY. THERE IS ONLY A 5% CHANCE OF STORMS FORMING IN THIS
AREA. IT'S WORTH NOTING, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND MOVE EASTWARD AFTER 0Z.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S. WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY IN THE FOG. MOST LIKELY
AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE EAST OF KS 27 AND NORTH OF U.S. 40. THIS
LOOKS TO START AROUND 10Z AND LAST UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TOMORROW, HOWEVER THE STRATUS MAY ONCE
AGAIN LOWER THE HIGHS FOR TOMORROW, SIMILAR TO TODAY. MUCH LIKE
TODAY, THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA. THIS BRINGS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER FOR TOMORROW, AROUND 15-25%, FAVORING
EASTERN COLORADO.
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MODE OF CHOICE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. IF STORMS DO FIRE, IT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
20Z AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 0-3Z. 50-65 MPH WIND AND 0.5-1.5 INCH
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHTS, SO
SPLITTING CELLS ARE LIKELY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 60S WITH YET
ANOTHER CHANCE OF FOG AND STRATUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FOR
SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
SATURDAY, THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
90S TO 100S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND A SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPATION (POPS)
ARE AROUND 20%. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 100S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING, BUT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST IN THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
STARTING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. LATE WEDNESDAY, WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A JET STREAK OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IN THE LATE EVENINGS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH POPS AROUND 50-70%.
DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
FOR THE WESTERN CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TEENS TO 20S FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
25 MPH, BUT HIGHEST WIND GUSTS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH LOWEST RH VALUES
OF THE DAY. BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM
THE EAST ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA
ALLOWING MINIMUM RH VALUES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER INTO THE 20S TO 30S
AFTER TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE A
RETURN OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR EACH TERMINAL AFTER 06Z. MCK IS
FAVORED TO BE MOST IMPACTED WITH MAINLY PATCHY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR GLD. WILL HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
FOR GLD FOR THE 06Z TAFS. SIMILAR TO TODAY ANY FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD BEGIN TO END BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
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