332
FXUS63 KGLD 290508
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG, GUSTIER WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS
INCREASED ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER VALUES. THEREFORE THE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WINDS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA WILL
BE A TAD STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT, BUT WANT TO SEE NEXT
CYCLE OF ENSEMBLE DATA BEFORE MAKING A DECISION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
IT'S DEFINITELY A BIT WINDY TODAY WITH THE AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVATION SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE GOODLAND AIRPORT GUSTING TO 59 MPH
AT 9:23 AM MDT. THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TO HAVE WINDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TO GUSTS OF 20-35 MPH BY 2-3 PM MDT/3-4 PM CDT. DESPITE THE
DECREASING WINDS, SUNNY SKIES WILL HAVE THE THE AREA REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY ON THE HUMIDITY SIDE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY
STAYING BELOW 25% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE AREA IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM
MDT/10 PM CDT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER STARTING OVER EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST UNDER THE NEARLY ZONE FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME NEAR-RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, PRIMARILY GOODLAND AND BURLINGTON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LOWER
TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS, FORTUNATELY, SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR OUR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
COUNTIES WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEES GUSTS TO ~20-25
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BEFORE WE SEE THE HUMIDITY FALL INTO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
RANGE, SO WE ARE HOLDING OFF AN ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, ANOTHER LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE WARM
AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE START THE WORK WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. THIS SETS US UP FOR ANOTHER DAY
OF NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE LOW TEENS; HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BE AN EVEN BIGGER LIMITING FACTOR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOCALES ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER COULD SEE A FEW HOURS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
30 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THOSE EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER WILL SEE WINDS CLOSER TO 20 MPH. BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF WE
CAN SEE THREE OR MORE HOURS OF THOSE CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN OUR
COLORADO COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK IT'S WAY SOUTH
INTO THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN TO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT.
THOSE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK IT PUSHES THROUGH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(30%) OF LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVERNIGHT MONDAY
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK, WE ARE IN A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES BRINGING CHANCES DAILY FOR LIGHT
RAIN DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR DAILY MOISTURE
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, THOUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA COULD SEE SOME RAIN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
FOR HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S BOTH NIGHTS.
IF WE DO SEE PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE FAVORING MORE OF A WET SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD
BE A BIT BREEZY WITH SOUTHEAST (WEDNESDAY) TO SOUTHERLY (THURSDAY)
WINDS GUSTING 30-45 MPH PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY
27. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) IS ALSO FAVORING A WINDY
MODEL SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 45 MPH. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MODEL
CERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN DOES DECREASE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGHS. WHILE WE DO STILL HAVE SOME
MOISTURE CHANCES (<30%) ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, IT IS POSSIBLE THE
AREA COULD SEE NOTHING AND BE IN THE DRY SLOT INSTEAD DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BECOME MORE
SEASONAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
70S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF POST COLD FRONT
INTO THE 50S-60S SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES
WITH A MIX OF HIGH CLOUD COVER AND CLEAR SKIES. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 14Z, ESPECIALLY AT KMCK AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS. SPEEDS OF 35-45 KTS ARE FORECAST
AROUND 200-400FT. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY, MARCH 29TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (1943), FORECAST IS 85.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 91 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 92 (1943), FORECAST IS 88.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 86 (2021), FORECAST IS 84.
--------------------------------------------------------
MONDAY, MARCH 30TH:
GOODLAND, KS - RECORD IS 88 (2010), FORECAST IS 87.
HILL CITY, KS - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 92.
MCCOOK, NE - RECORD IS 93 (1943), FORECAST IS 89.
BURLINGTON, CO - RECORD IS 87 (2010), FORECAST IS 86.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page