916
FXUS63 KGLD 210458
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
COLORADO AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL AS LOW AT 25
DEGREES TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS LOW AS 33 DEGREES. FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
FORECAST PANNING OUT AS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE WINDS
OCCURRING AS OF NOW. HAVE HAD SOME SPORADIC GUSTS OF 58-63 MPH
ACROSS KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (CO) AND LOGAN COUNTIES BUT AM OPTING TO
HOLD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE SPORADIC NATURE OF THESE
GUSTS THUS FAR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WANE AFTER 18Z ALBEIT
STILL GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME TO AN END AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN AND THE JET WEAKENS BUT STILL
REMAINS STRONG BUT ROOTED ABOVE THE INVERSION.
CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS FOR DUST THROUGH AROUND 21-22Z BEFORE THE
WINDS WEAKEN. WITH CAPPING 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES A LONGER LIVED PLUME
OR TWO OF BROWNOUT CONDITIONS STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS YUMA,
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO) PERHAPS DRIFTING INTO ADJACENT
COUNTIES. OTHER THAN MAINLY A HAZE HAS BEEN OBSERVED HERE AT
THE OFFICE WITH SOME MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY THUS FAR. DO
THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE BEFORE WINDS START
WANING.
NO CHANGES TO THE RED FLAG WARNING. AM STARTING TO SEE DEW POINTS
START TO FALL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SUGGESTING THAT THE
CORRIDOR OF CONCERN FOR THE HUMIDITY DROP IS STARTING TO OCCUR.
HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING INTO WALLACE, LOGAN, WICHITA
COUNTIES AND EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY INTO GOVE AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09
AND 12Z ENCOMPASSING THOSE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
WEAKEN.
FOR TUESDAY, IN SIMILAR FASHION TO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS IS FORECAST TO PROMOTE
TEMPERATURES IN THE IN 60S ACROSS THE AREA. A PERIOD OF BREEZY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS OF 20- 25 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE RESULTING IN HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25
RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. WILL AGAIN NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WELL AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WILL REFRAIN FROM PUTTING ANY FROST INTO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME UNTIL TONGIGHT'S FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE ENDED AS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HARD FREEZES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE TRANQUIL DAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AS THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FLOW AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10
MPH BUT BECOMING EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LEADS TO MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL WITH THIS AS WELL.
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
WELL. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SEVERE CHANCES
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW
KANSAS AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DEVELOPS. UPCOMING SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW CLOSELY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN HOWEVER DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PROMOTE FURTHER UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
PROVIDING THE MAIN LIFT. THE PEAK OF THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK
TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME STRIPES OF 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS AND EFI SHIFT OF TAILS
IS STILL SEEN BUT DO NOTICE THAT LESS MEMBERS HAVE THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN WHAT WAS SEEN 24 HOURS AGO.
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LARGER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP PROMOTING MORE WIND FOR THE AREA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK AS WELL WHICH MAY HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION AS WELL WITH
IT. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE UPCOMING
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING. IN THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
BEFORE BECOMING WEAK AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BOTH KGLD AND KMCK COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP AROUND 20
KTS, BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ027-
028-041-042.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001-
002-013>015-029.
CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ092.
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079-
080.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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