336
FXUS63 KGLD 150644
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1244 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY S TO SW WINDS AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, YET AGAIN, ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY DROP TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOWFALL
MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO START RETREATING
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS COLORADO WILL BE THE DICTATING FEATURE THAT
WILL DETERMINE WHEN AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS. RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN BUT HAVE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING DUE
TO TIMING OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE STRONGEST OF THE
WINDS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE WINDS REMAIN
FROM THE WSW AND WINDS GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINFALL CHANCES STILL LOOK TO
INCREASE WITH THE WARM FRONT, ADDITIONAL LIFT DUE TO THE LOW AND
AN APPROACHING 500MB SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK. THE
FAVORED AREA IS ACROSS YUMA, DUNDY AND CHEYENNE (KS) THIS
EVENING WHERE HIGH BASED SHOWERS CHARACTERIZED BY INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS ARE IN PLACE. I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR 50-60+ MPH
WINDS WITH ANY DOWNDRAFTS. WINDS ALSO MAY BE ABLE TO MIX FROM
PRESSURE RISES ON ITS OWN AS WELL AS RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST 6-8MB
RISES OVER 3 HOURS WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST AT 10MB OVER
3 HOURS. RAIN CHANCES MAY EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BUT
AGAIN WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND WHERE
THE DRY SLOT WILL SET UP.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP SATURATION AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
MOST FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME FROM LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF THE LOW WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AM
FORECASTING THESE WINDS TO EASE UP IN MAGNITUDE AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON.
THURSDAY, SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AS
WELL ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE
80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS IS LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES FOR MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO HAVE CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
BUT AT THIS TIME WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL. AM OPTING TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME TO ENSURE THAT
THE SIGNAL FOR WINDS REMAINS AND DOES NOT DEGRADE WHICH HAS BEEN
THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. IF THERE IS A FIRE ONGOING
THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BEGINNING FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A MODEST 50-70 KT JET STREAK AT 500-MB ACROSS THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION. A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO
ALREADY EXIST FROM THE MIDWEST BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE UPPER- LEVEL FEATURES, AND MAY CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
IS FAVORED. A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN TRAVERSING THE
FORECAST REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
ISSUES AS TO THE EXACT TIMING. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS MID TO UPPER-TEEN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40
MPH RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE MITIGATED WITH A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, OR ENHANCED BY A SLOWER
PROGRESSION. LREF GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
VARIANCE IN WIND DIRECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING, HIGHLIGHTING ISSUES
REGARDING THE FRONT'S TIMING. AROUND 60% OF GEFS AND EC MEMBERS
SHOW A SCENARIO WHERE THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FASTER, AND
THUS, WOULD MITIGATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK. LREF
GUIDANCE WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION, SUGGESTING AT BEST
A 1 IN 3 CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND LESS FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON SITS AT AROUND 5%.
FRIDAY EVENING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FREEZE OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, IN ADDITION TO AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL. LOWS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOWER-20S TO LOWER-30S FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AS HIGH AS A 60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 40% CHANCE
ACROSS THIS ZONE THAT THE SNOWFALL IS MEASURABLE (>0.1 INCHES).
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE
EXPERIENCED, AS NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER
25 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT. COOLER CONDITIONS COULD LAST INTO
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID-50S TO LOWER-60S.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHERE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS, AND WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 60-80%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS ZONE, WITH LREF GUIDANCE GIVING RH
VALUES A 50-70% CHANCE. EVEN SO, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED ACROSS THIS ZONE IS ONLY ABOUT 5% DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE COLD FRONT FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WHICH MAY KEEP RH VALUES A BIT MORE ELEVATED.
WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LOT MORE DIVERGENT PAST
SUNDAY MORNING, GEFS AND EC 500-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS RIDGING IS FAVORED ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
WARM AND DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY, AND 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. RH VALUES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ON THE LOWER END,
WITH UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS TO LOWER-TEENS ON SUNDAY, AND LOW TO
MID-TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BE EXPERIENCED ALL THREE DAYS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE DECREASES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A SLOW- MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY'S RISK SEEMS HIGHEST,
AS LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 3 IN 4 CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET
CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH NBM GUIDANCE YIELDING
OVER 50% PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITERIA.
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED SUNDAY IS AROUND
10%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED APR 15 2026
GLD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS
(3,000-4,000 FT AGL) DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY ~14-18Z, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
NW WINDS ~15-20 KNOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING.. WITH WINDS BACKING
TO THE WNW AND DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER BACK TO THE W OR WSW AND DECREASE
TO 5-10 KNOTS AROUND SUNSET.
MCK: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS
(3,000-4,000 FT AGL) DURING THE MORNING, MAINLY ~14-18Z, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NNW TO
NW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE WNW OR W AND DECREASE
TO 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AROUND SUNSET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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