483  
FXUS63 KGLD 302319  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
519 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER  
CHANCES (30-40%) FAVORING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LITTLE TO  
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. A 20% CHANCE OF FOG BEHIND THE  
PRECIPITATION FAVORING EASTERN COLORADO.  
 
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.  
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, DUST, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND  
SEVERE STORMS ALL POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR  
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  
 
- NEAR CRITICAL/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS THE  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ENDED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE  
HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM THUS FAR AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES  
TO FILTER IN, DO THINK ENOUGH WARMING WILL ENSUE FOR THE  
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO WORK OUT AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN  
SLOWLY ERODING AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST REMAIN  
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.  
 
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SUBTLE 700MB WAVE MOVES OFF OF THE ROCKIES LEADING  
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW. INITIALLY THE  
FAVORED LOCATION IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 BEFORE SOME  
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVES IN LEADING TO  
A SMALLER THREAT FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF  
INTERSTATE 70. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS TONIGHT DUE TO THE  
MEAGER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF  
THESE WAVES. AM ALSO NOTICING AN INCREASING TREND IN POTENTIAL  
FOG BEHIND THESE WAVES AS WELL WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE  
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE ADDED IN THE PATCHY FOG  
WORDING FOR NOW. IF THE PRECIPITATION DOESN'T FORM THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT THEN MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME DENSE FOG  
POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FOG AT THIS TIME IS FAVORED ALONG AND  
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.  
 
MONDAY, LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONING DAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH BEGINS  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM TODAY  
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHTNING  
PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS GUST  
AROUND 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO  
THE EAST TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING  
SHORT WAVE AT THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND  
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE DOES  
SEEM TO BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA WHERE SOME ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE ABLE TO BE  
REALIZED. WINDS DURING THE NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE BREEZY TO  
GUSTY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH SOME  
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.  
 
TUESDAY, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MULTI HAZARD DAY. THE SURFACE LOW  
FROM MONDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE  
EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTS AHEAD OF IT AND THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW  
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
THE FIRST POTENTIAL HAZARD AND THE ONE WITH THE MOST CONFIDENCE IS  
FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOGAN,  
WALLACE, CHEYENNE (CO), GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES  
ARE FORECAST TO BE BEHIND THE DRYLINE ALLOWING RH VALUES TO FALL  
INTO THE LOW TEENS. AN INCREASING WIND FIELD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE  
LOW IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO 40-55 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE WATCH COUNTIES  
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF THE LOW CAN SHIFT  
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHICH A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO  
SHOW THEN THE FIRE HIGHLIGHTS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A LITTLE  
FURTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE THE I-70 COUNTIES BUT AT THIS TIME MY  
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LESS THAN 50%. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO  
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A RESULTING WIND SHIFT FURTHER ADDING TO  
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
THE 2ND POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE BLOWING DUST AND STRONG WINDS. WITH  
THE GUSTY TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PRESENT A SOURCE REGION OF  
BLOWING DUST FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THE VERY LEAST WILL LEAD  
TO HAZY SKIES. THE GFS WIND FIELD REMAINS THE STRONGEST WHERE  
SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60-65 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS  
I-70. I DID CONTEMPLATE A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT WITH THE GFS  
CURRENTLY BEING THE OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD AND  
CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES OF THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW,  
CONFIDENCE WAS ON THE LOW END OF 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS OCCURRING  
OVER A LARGE AREA SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF  
OTHER GUIDANCE CAN START GETTING ON THE SAME PAGE THEN ONE MAY  
BE NEEDED. VERY FAVORABLE 0-2KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE  
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE WINDS. THE NASASPORT 0-10CM  
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS GREELEY, WICHITA AND DOWN INTO SOUTHERN  
COLORADO CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 20 RH RANGES; THE RECENT  
RAIN/SNOW HAS IMPROVED AMOUNTS IN CHEYENNE CO BUT WITH THE  
ANTICIPATED BREEZY WINDS AND WARMING TREND DO THINK THIS WILL  
RE DRY OUT SOME. 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH WHICH MAKES  
ME THINK THAT MOST OF THE DUST WILL JUST GET FILTERED OUT THE  
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IT GOES LEADING TO MORE OF A HAZE; HOWEVER  
WITH THE DRYNESS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SIGNIFICANT  
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT TO OPEN  
FIELDS AND OTHER DUST SOURCE REGIONS. ALONG THE NORTH TO SOUTH  
MOVING COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON  
SOME DUST SOURCE REGIONS AROUND THE LOGAN/MORGAN COUNTIES IN  
COLORADO WHERE THE SOIL MOISTURE ACCORDING TO NASASPORT  
CURRENTLY IS IN THE 20S AS WELL. VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISE  
AROUND 8-9MB OVER 3 HOURS AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE  
FRONT ALONG WITH A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE MAY LEAD TO  
SOME WALL OF DUST POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND 5  
PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND FIELD MAY BE WEAKER BEHIND THE  
FRONT POTENTIALLY LEADING TO "WEAKER" WINDS THAN WHAT IS  
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 
THE NEXT HAZARD IS SEVERE WEATHER AND HAS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF  
OCCURRENCE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT  
AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL HELP SHARPEN THE DRYLINE. THE  
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRYLINE SURGE? THE  
ECMWF CURRENTLY HAS THE DRYLINE THE FURTHEST WEST BACK TOWARDS  
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, WHEREAS THE GFS HAS IT FURTHER EASTER  
TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS (WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS OF THE GFS) AND  
THE NAM IS IN BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS ACROSS MAINLY NORTON AND  
GRAHAM COUNTIES. THE NAM IS TYPICALLY MY GO TO 48+ HOURS OUT FOR  
POTENTIAL DRYLINE SHIFTS SO WITH IT BEING FURTHER EAST DOES  
DECREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IN THE CWA;  
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF IT DOES SHIFT BACK WEST SIMILAR TO  
THE ECMWF. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS  
DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT A HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD SEVERE  
WEATHER OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL  
BASED ON THE EBWD AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9 C.KM AND 70 MPH  
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.IF STORMS DO FORM IN THE CWA THE NEXT  
QUESTION WILL BE IF THEIR RESIDENCE TIME IN THE FORECAST AREA  
CAN BE REALIZED FOR THESE HAZARDS TO PRESENT THEMSELVES.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEHIND THE FRONT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN  
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY  
CHANGEOVER TO SNOWFALL AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
ABOVE FREEZING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY...AS TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO  
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY, WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND  
RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE  
CHANCES AT 20% TO 30%. WE'LL ALSO EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING  
30 TO 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S  
TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR  
SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY FROM FLAGLER TO SHARON SPRINGS AS THERE IS A  
HINT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A  
RATHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW  
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT 500MB WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES  
AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A BIT BETTER  
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
DURING THE DAY PER GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS WITH GOOD 850-500MB RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY TO SUPPORT NBM POPS IN THE 20%-30% RANGE FOR LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY  
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. OVERNIGHT, DONT SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR  
PRECIPITATION BUT NBM SHOWING 20% CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND  
SNOW SHOWERS SO WE'LL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES  
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE  
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ABOVE  
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 30% TO  
50% RANGE DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND 40%-60% OVERNIGHT FOR  
RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE  
MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR  
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING MOVES GENERALLY EAST DURING THE  
PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30% TO 50% RANGE DURING THE DAY  
DECREASE A BIT FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 20% TO 40% RANGE OVERNIGHT.  
WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME MORNING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE MORNING  
THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE  
LOWER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S  
TO AROUND 30.  
 
SUNDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20% CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE HILL CITY, NORTON, MCCOOK AREAS BUT  
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RATHER LOW GIVEN A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-  
500MB LAYER. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 40S  
TO MIDDLE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
AT KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF  
IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVENING AS RAIN/SNOW  
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG  
THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING.  
 
AT KMCK...MVFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO  
LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS  
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IF THEY DEVELOP MAY RESULT  
IN SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS  
IS AROUND 20% AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.  
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR COZ254.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TRIGG  
LONG TERM...99  
AVIATION...024  
 
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