920
FXUS63 KGLD 160644
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1244 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-20% CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES. DENSE FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK AS WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
100 DEGREES AND MAY POSE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA, WHICH MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE IN LOW-
LAYING AREAS.
TODAY, WE REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AS AN 850 MB RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR 0 AS WE WARM
UP AND START DRYING OUT AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE
LOW 90S AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. EASTERN
COLORADO MAY SEE BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
OVERNIGHT, A STRONG 850 MB LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION,
AND BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LOOK TO BE IN THE 25-35 KTS RANGE. THIS WILL CERTAINLY LEAD TO MUCH
WARMER LOWS OVERNIGHT, LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 60S, BUT SOME PLACES
MAY STAY IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE EASTERN CWA.
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, THAT LOW WILL SWEEP A NORTHWESTERLY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A RAPID WIND SHIFT, AND
WITH THE FROPA, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING IN
THE 20-30 KTS RANGE, BUT OCCASIONAL 35-40 KTS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
IN THE EVENING, AROUND 0Z, A HIGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH OUT THE LOW SHOVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
WINDS WITH THE FROPA WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT GUSTS LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND THE 20-25 KTS MARK. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THERE IS
A 60% CHANCE GUSTS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 30-35 KTS SOUTH OF I-
70 AFTER 6Z.
THANKFULLY THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE GUSTS APPROACH OR EXCEED
50 KTS, SO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WE ARE
EXPECTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FIRST COLD FRONT ACCELERATING, HIGHS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE MAY SEE 100 DEGREES
BRIEFLY, BUT THE BULK OF THE CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE 90S. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER STILL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 25-30%. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE DUST THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY LARGELY LOOKS TO BE NUISANCE LEVEL,
BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT WORSE CONDITIONS. WITH THE FIRST FRONT, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING A WALL OF DUST, BUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
PLUMES OF DUST MAY BE LOFTED. 2-2.5 KM LAPSE RATES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO ALLOW MOST OF THIS DUST TO MIX INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WOULD
CAUSE HAZINESS AND POOR AIR QUALITY, BUT ONLY LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR NEAR SOURCE REGIONS. THERE LOOKS TO BE
A LULL IN THE DUST THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SECOND COLD
FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SECOND FRONT, THE
DUST THREAT INCREASES. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE, THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITY DOWN UNDER A MILE AND A
2-5% CHANCE FOR A HABOOB WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
BLOWING DUST THREAT HINGES ON THE FRONT SPEEDING UP AND ENTERING THE
CWA AROUND 21-22Z AND GUSTS WITH THE FRONT TO BE AROUND OR ABOVE 30-
35 KTS.
THE DUST THREAT LOOKS TO END AROUND 3Z WHEN LAPSE RATES DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY DIRT TO BE LOFTED. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO PERSIST IN THE 20-
30 KTS RANGE UNTIL ABOUT 6Z, AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY, A SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TOP BE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT. WINDS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT ARE FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY. A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PRESENT ITSELF INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO PRESENT ITSELF. THE DAY OF INTEREST CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE SATURDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS COLORADO
FURTHER PROVIDING LIFT. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SEEN
ON GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN 850MB WIND FIELD AROUND
20-30 KNOTS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THIS TO MORE OF A
HIGHER SUSTAINED WIND WITH THE 700MB WIND FIELD BEING AROUND THE
SAME IF NOT ACTUALLY WEAKER. FIRE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS A CONCERN AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BEFORE WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH RETURNS. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP LOOKS TO DICTATE
HOW IT WILL GET AS THE GFS HAS THE HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD MITIGATE HOW WARM IT COULD GET
VERSUS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS IT DISPLACED VERSUS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL THE MIDDAY
TUESDAY WHEN THEY WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WINDS LOOK TO LARGELY
REMAIN 15 KTS, UNTIL THE END OF TAF PERIOD.
IT'S NOT INCLUDED IN THE 6Z TAFS, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING STRONG
WINDS TO START UP AROUND 6Z TOMORROW. GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KTS
RANGE ARE EXPECTED AFTER 6Z TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
A SIGNAL FOR MID JUNE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS STARTING AS
EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SURFACE TROUGH NUDGING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING IN DRIER AIR
AND ALSO INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 25-35 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 22Z TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN MEETING THE DURATION
OF 3 OR MORE HOURS FOR THE NEED OF A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT AT
THIS TIME. WINDS ARE HOWEVER FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND RH DOESN'T RISE ABOVE
35% RESULTING IN MINIMAL RECOVERY. THE PEAK OF THE WINDS LOOKS
TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND LAST
THROUGH AROUND 18-21Z OR SO BEFORE WANING SOME. WE DO GET SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH DOES LOOK TO KEEP
RH IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR FIRE
WEATHER AS IT COULD BE MORE OF A "MARGINAL" EVENT THAN WHAT WAS
SEEN BEFORE. CONTEMPLATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BUT WANTED TO
HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE RUN TO ENSURE THE FRONT DOESN'T SPEED
UP MORE AND FURTHER ELIMINATE THE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS AM STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
WITH THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS PART OF THE AREA
HAS GREENED UP ENOUGH PER FUELS PARTNERS. DUNDY THROUGH RED
WILLOW ALONG WITH DECATUR, SHERIDAN, GOVE, NORTON AND GRAHAM
HAVE ALL BEEN DEEMED "GREEN" BY PARTNERS. ELSEWHERE THE CONCERN
FOR FIRE SPREAD STILL REMAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE LONGER DURATION
FUELS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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