564  
FXUS63 KGLD 061939  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
139 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY.  
 
- REMAINING MILD THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 90S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
UPDATE: MORNING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS PERSISTED  
AND PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. AT 1 PM MDT, OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION  
WAS LOCATED ~20 MILES SOUTH OF I-80 (SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NORTH  
PLATTE TO LEXINGTON AND KEARNEY).. AND WAS MAKING SLOW  
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD RED WILLOW/ HITCHCOCK COUNTIES. IF  
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE  
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW, IT WOULD ALTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS  
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.. THE IMPACT OF WHICH COULD  
BE DETRIMENTAL OR BENEFICIAL TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER  
THIS EVENING.  
 
THE TRI-STATE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME,  
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (ANCHORED OVER  
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS), IN W TO WSW FLOW  
ALOFT. WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW (<= 15 KNOTS FROM THE  
SURFACE TO 500 MB) PERSISTS.. WITH STRONGER FLOW CONFINED TO THE  
200-300 MB LEVEL (~25-35 KFT AGL). ANOTHER COMPLEX, CHALLENGING  
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT  
LIMITED TO: LINGERING MESOSCALE FEATURES FROM ANTECEDENT  
CONVECTION (E.G. A PROMINENT MCV NEAR LAMAR, CO AT 15 UTC) AND  
ONGOING CONVECTION WITH A REMNANT MCS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA  
(BETWEEN GORDON/KGRN AND VALENTINE/KVTN AT 15 UTC). WEAK, ILL-  
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL FORCING PERSISTS NEARBY AND UPSTREAM/WEST OF  
THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA (I.E. NO APPRECIABLE OR  
READILY APPARENT FEATURES IN WV IMAGERY OR SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA  
AT 15 UTC).  
 
RECENT 12Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST SUGGEST A SCENARIO  
ROUGHLY SIMILAR (MORE ROBUST, PERHAPS) TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED  
YESTERDAY, I.E. SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG PORTIONS OF  
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE, CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE AT  
PEAK HEATING AND ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND  
PROGRESSES/PROPAGATES E-ESE INTO THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING  
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~23-06 UTC,  
BEGINNING ~5 PM MDT, ENDING ~12 AM MDT). IF THIS IS THE CASE,  
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS APPEAR ROUGHLY ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY.. E.G. THE  
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER, SEASONABLY STRONG DCAPE,  
MARGINAL-MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE)  
AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE (~25-35  
KNOTS). 15 UTC OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND MESOANALYSIS TRENDS  
SUGGEST THAT OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION /REMNANT  
MCS/ IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA MAY STALL NEAR, OR JUST NORTH, OF THE  
I-80 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MOISTURE  
POOLING IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY  
FACILITATE MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION (2000-2500 J/KG  
MLCAPE).. AND A MORE ROBUST, ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL  
MAY EXIST. WITH THIS IN MIND, LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF  
HIGHWAY 36 (OR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM IDALIA TO ST.  
FRANCIS, ATWOOD, OBERLIN AND NORTON) APPEAR TO BE MOST AT-RISK  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
MON: GUIDANCE INDICATES RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 'BIG  
PICTURE', I.E. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK FORCING  
REGIME ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
(ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO) IN WSW  
FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION IN  
THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA MAY, ONCE AGAIN, BE INFLUENCED  
(DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY) BY UPSTREAM AND/OR ANTECEDENT  
CONVECTION. BOTTOM LINE, LOW CONFIDENCE PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO  
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIFICS (CONVECTIVE MODE, COVERAGE,  
EVOLUTION).. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.  
 
TUE-SUN: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL  
PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA  
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AT  
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  
BROADLY SPEAKING, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND  
A DAILY POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFT-EVE CONVECTION (MAINLY IN  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE COLORADO  
FRONT RANGE).. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AND  
PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~02-06Z MON), VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT  
WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 50  
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF ANY DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT  
LONG TERM...VINCENT  
AVIATION...VINCENT  
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