911
FXUS63 KGLD 190701
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
101 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
- CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY WITH STORMS
FORECAST TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
- FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, THIS HAS CUT THE WINDS WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH. THE REST OF THE AREA HOWEVER CONTINUES TO SEE WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH FROM THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD HOLD
OVERNIGHT, AND ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER WHILE
HOLDING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
PLAINS, WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST DEEPENING JUST A BIT. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH EXCEPT MAYBE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE LOW
CENTER MAY DROP WINDS TO 10 MPH. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY IN THE EAST, BUT CLEAR IN THE WEST WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY
AND INTRUDE. THIS IS FORECAST TO HAVE TEMPERATURES REACH 90 FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA MAY STAY MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BOTH INCREASE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND CREATE A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF A SHORTWAVE TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW OVER THE AREA, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH STORMS FORMING CLOSE
TO SUNSET, CAPPING IS FORECAST TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSITY. BUT THAT BEING SAID, 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 KTS AND MUCAPE
AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS OR SUPERCELLS. MOST OF THE HAIL SHOULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS WITH FREEZING LEVELS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 16000-17000FT. BUT A SUPERCELL WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 2.5 INCHES. THERE COULD ALSO BE
A GUST TO 65 MPH WITH A STRONG DOWNDRAFT. THE STORMS FOR NOW ARE
FAVORED TO FORM GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WHILE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE STORMS DO FORM, THEY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S WITH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH A REINFORCING
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND HELPING TO PUSH THE SURFACE LOW
MORE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A BIG IF WITH HOW THIS DAY WILL PLAY
OUT THOUGH DUE TO THE PRIOR NIGHT'S STORMS. IF THE STORMS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, IT WOULD LIKELY
LOWER THE STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER IN THE DAY. IT
WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER (LIKELY IN THE EAST) WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. 90S WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WITH CLEARER SKIES AND MORE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN WARMER AIR. WINDS WOULD
ALSO BE FAIRLY BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
IF EARLY STORMS DON'T INTERFERE TOO MUCH, THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HELP DEVELOP STORMS ALONG
A CONVERGENCE ZONE AROUND EASTERN COLORADO. THIS LINE COULD START
MORE AS PULSE AND SUPERCELL STORMS, BEFORE LIKELY EVOLVING INTO
CLUSTERS. THE CLUSTER EVOLUTION WOULD LIKELY BE WITHIN AN HOUR
IF THERE IS EARLY CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT
IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2-4 PM AND THEN STEADILY PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, LEAVING CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
HAVING 0- 6KM SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KTS, MUCAPE AROUND 2000-3000
J/KG, CYCLONIC CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR
VECTORS AROUND 55 KTS, AND PWATS ABOVE 1.25'. THIS ALL SUPPORTS
LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH, TORNADOES, AND FLASH
FLOODING. SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR DAY, HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN
0.5-1.5" WITH THE CLUSTERING OF STORMS AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS. HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY CASES,
SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE 3"+ HAIL. WIND GUSTS ARE A BIT MORE
LIKELY WITH THE INCREASED FLOW, THOUGH WOULD STILL FAVOR 55-65
MPH. THE MAX THOUGH COULD REACH 70-80 MPH IF WE GET ORGANIZED
BOWING CLUSTERS. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING DUST CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER WINDS OCCURRED OVER AREAS THAT DID NOT
RECEIVE RAIN THE PRIOR NIGHT. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
TORNADOES, WE WOULD LIKELY ONLY SEE 1-3 WITH INITIALLY WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND LCLS FORECAST TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGHER SIDE.
THE ISSUE IS THAT ANY TORNADO THAT FORMS MAY BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
TO SEE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AND CLUSTERING FORECAST TO OCCUR. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE, SO A
STRONG TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE. IN REGARDS TO THE HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING, THE STORM MOTIONS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO QUICK
FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM A SINGLE CLUSTER/LINE OF STORMS (THOUGH
RAIN TOTALS COULD STILL EASILY REACH 2-3" WITH A SINGLE
CLUSTER/STORM). THE MAIN CONCERN IS IF ACTIVITY LINGERS IN THE
AREA FROM OUTFLOW GENERATING ADDITIONAL STORMS. ESPECIALLY WITH
RAINFALL FROM THE PRIOR NIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 4+" OF RAIN CAUSING SOME FLASH FLOODING. THOSE EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING FOR
NOW. SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES AS THIS FORECAST IS A BIT
MESSY, BUT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME STORM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE SETTING UP WITH
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SEMI
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA. MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN SATURDAY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1-1.5
INCHES. THE SIGNAL REMAINS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW MCS'S TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS AT LEAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY; AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEAK AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. DEPENDENT ON HOW SATURDAY AND EACH
PREVIOUS DAY PANS OUT ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD ARE A LITTLE ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS
THEY POTENTIALLY COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ANYONE DAY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY
PRECIPATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS WELL. IF THE HIGH WERE TO SET UP A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST MORE SO OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
INSTEAD OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WHICH IS WHAT GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
AROUND 1500FT BETWEEN 12-15Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z, THOUGH
THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED SO THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20%.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING 0C LEVEL TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP
MELTING LAYERS. SATURDAY IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DAY COMING UP, WHERE
A MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE CWA AND MAY PRODUCE 0.5-1.5+ INCHES
OF QPF IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2-
2.5 INCHES.
BETWEEN THE HIGH QPF VALUES ON SATURDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT
A FLASH FLOODING RISK. AREAS THAT ARE AT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SEEING A FLOODING RISK ARE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
TRENTON, NE TO QUINTER, KS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KAK
HYDROLOGY...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page