225
FXUS63 KGLD 041052
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 AM CT. VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1/4 MILE AND SLICK PATCHES FROM FREEZING FOG ARE
POSSIBLE.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES
IN COLORADO FOR THURSDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
THIS MORNING, AN 850 MB LOW WILL BE EXITING THE HIGH PLAINS, PULLING
IN SOME WEAK CAA BEHIND IT. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SETUP BETWEEN KS 25 AND 27 AS OF 7Z. WEST OF THE CONVERGENCE, THE
COOLER, NORTHWESTERLY AIR IS MOVING IN, BUT EAST OF THE LINE, MOIST,
EASTERLY WIND IS OCCURRING. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
CAUSING DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA, PROMPTING A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
THIS MORNING, SO THE THREAT FOR PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG IS HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT UNTIL 17Z THIS
MORNING.
AT 500 MB, THE LOW IS MOVING OVER THE CWA, AND PROMOTING
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
REST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, WITH AN 850 MB RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME SATURATING
THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 60S, AND GENERALLY BE A PLEASANT DAY!
TONIGHT, OUR NEXT 850 MB LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES, COMBINED
WITH THE EXITING RIDGE, WILL PROMOTE SOUTHERLY, MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE US A THREAT OF FOG BY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN CWA. POTENTIAL FOR FOG
IS ONLY AROUND 20-40%, MAINLY BECAUSE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY BE OCCURRING 12-18Z.
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DAY. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF COLORADO, CREATING A
DRYLINE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AND THE
EASTERN CWA. LOOKING AT THE REFS, THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KS HIGHWAY 25 AND 27. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WE'LL COVER THE DRY SECTOR FIRST. RH VALUES WILL TANK IN THE DRY
SECTOR, ESPECIALLY IN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES WHERE RH
VALUES COULD DROP TO 10%. THE NBM HAS BEEN BEEN PUSHING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS IN THIS AREA, WHICH PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH. HOWEVER, THE NBM GENERALLY HAS A
HIGH WIND BIAS IN EASTERN COLORADO, AND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE
850 MB LOW LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS LOWERS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH TO AROUND 30%. PLAN IS TO LEAVE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING IN CASE THE GUST POTENTIAL RETURNS.
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20-40% AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST UP AROUND 30 KTS. WHILE THERE
IS EFFECTIVELY NO RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THERE IS A GROWING
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE 850 MB LOW
LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AND STARTS
MOVING AGAIN AROUND 0-6Z AS THE 500 MB LOW STARTS PUSHING IN. THIS
WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN AND IGNITE STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE, AND THEN MOVE THEM TO THE NORTHEAST. PEAK TIMING FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 3-09Z. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE
OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
THE INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS.
AS FAR AS POTENTIAL HAZARDS GO, HAIL AND WIND ARE THE MAIN THREAT,
FLOODING IS A MINOR CONCERN, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT. RAP, NAM, AND NAMNEST SOUNDING ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR, BUT
WE'LL BE FOCUSING ON RAP SOUNDINGS. IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AT 3Z,
THE PROFILE REMAINS THE SAME TEMPERATURE UP TO ABOUT 750-800 MB FROM
THE SURFACE, CREATING HEFTY SURFACE LAYER CIN. HOWEVER, MLCAPE SITS
AROUND 1,000 J/KG WITH CIN AROUND -125 WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1,750 J/KG
AND CIN OF -40. THIS CERTAINLY GIVES US THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
STORMS, AND A SLIM CHANCE FOR A STORM TO BE CLOSE TO THE SURFACE.
SHEAR IS IN AMPLE SUPPLY. EBWD, 0-1, AND 0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS.
WITH ALL THOSE PARAMETERS IN MIND, HAIL, IF IT DOES FORM, WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE 0.75-1 INCH RANGE, BUT COULD BE UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
THE WIND THREAT IS NOT GREAT FOR DRY OR WET MICROBURSTS, AND IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR A QLCS THREAT. EITHER WAY, MOST LIKELY WIND
THREAT WILL BE IN THE 30-45 KTS RANGE, WITH A MAXIMUM POTENTIAL UP
TO 50 KTS. THE FLOODING RISK WOULD REALLY ONLY OCCUR IF HIGH
PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER A LOCATION FOR 1-2+
HOURS, WHICH HAS A 5% CHANCE OF OCCURRING. AS FAR AS THE TORNADO
THREAT, WHILE THE NUMERICAL PARAMETERS ARE BEING MET FOR A TORNADO,
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES KEEPS A LID ON THIS THREAT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
FRIDAY MORNING, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST NEAR THE CENTRAL
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST WEST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH A JET STREAK OVER OUR REGION. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET BEING OVER OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. A
MAJORITY OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) IS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN
BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. OUR COLORADO COUNTIES
MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING, SO A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM
40-70% ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KIT CARSON, CO TO
INDIANOLA, NE. SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE, POPS GRADUALLY DROP TO
15% IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 60S, WITH THE NORTHWEST CWA ON THE LOWER
END. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. GUSTS
FROM 25-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH OUR COLORADO COUNTIES BEING ON
THE HIGHER END. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WINDS WILL
RETURN TO OUR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIT THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SATURDAY, WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MILD OVERALL,
BUT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR OUR
COLORADO COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO 20S FOR THE CWA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF SOUTHWEST WINDS FURTHER DRY CONDITIONS AND
DROP RH VALUES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE
60S TO 70S. CURRENTLY, WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK THROUGH THE COLUMN AND NO JET STREAK IS OVERHEAD OF OUR REGION.
THIS SUPPORTS MILD SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH POSSIBLE. YUMA COUNTY IS THE EXCEPTION WITH
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS GUSTING FROM 20-30 MPH FORECAST. RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, SO YUMA COUNTY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WARM FURTHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S TO 80S
AS OUR REGION IS UNDER A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE TEENS
FOR THE CWA, BUT WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THE REGION. GUSTS ARE
FORECAST AROUND 20 MPH CURRENTLY. IF OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE OR THE LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA CHANGES TRACK, WE COULD
SEE HIGHER WINDS INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY, CONDITIONS COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. RH VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER
FROM OUR PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS. RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE 20S. WINDS GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, SO
FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN IF RH VALUES DO NOT RECOVER AS MUCH
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGLD. THE FOG AND
STRATUS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AIRPORT. KMCK, LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE
DENSE FOG SEEMS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RAPIDLY IMPROVING 16-17Z. USE CAUTION WITH ANY
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS ICING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN IN THE
STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
014>016-028-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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