187  
FXUS63 KGLD 080755  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
155 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF STRONG TO  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
- REMAINING MILD THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 90S.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND A RIDGE  
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY  
VARIABLE WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES, LEADING TO LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN HOW TODAY WILL EVOLVE. INSTABILITY WILL BE UP TO  
1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, NOT MUCH DIFFERENT  
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WHICH SAW ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOP. SO  
IF SOMETHING CAN GET GOING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND THE MAIN HAZARD, PERHAPS SOME  
ISOLATED HAIL IN INITIAL STAGES.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 818 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THOUGH SOME ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND  
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREAFTER EXPECTING THE SKY TO CLEAR AND  
SHOULD WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND CONDITIONS BE ALLOWED TO RADIATE  
OUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN  
ANY LOW LYING AREAS AND MORE SO IF THEY HAVE BEEN SATURATED IN  
RAIN THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 60 DURING  
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND USING THAT AS A THRESHOLD, SHOULD  
ANY LOCATIONS FALL AT OR BELOW THERE IS THE THREAT OF LOWER  
VISIBILITIES WITH PATCHY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOWS  
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE OVER HALF  
OF THE FORECAST AREA ENCOMPASSING EAST-CENTRAL CO, SOUTHWEST NE  
AND NORTHEAST KS. AGAIN, DEPENDENCE ON HOW QUICKLY AND EFFECTIVELY  
CLOUDS CLEAR WITH TODAYS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
GENERALLY, WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR THE LONG  
TERM FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THERE  
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS  
DAILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK AND  
WEEKEND. THE BEST LOCATION FOR THESE STORMS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR  
OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT EVERYWHERE COULD SEE STORMS  
DAILY. GENERALLY, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE  
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS. AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY, WE ARE OUTLOOKED  
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SO A FEW OF THESE STORMS  
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING WINDS GREATER THAN  
60MPH AND LARGE HAIL TOMORROW. BEYOND TOMORROW, THE STORMS LOOK  
TO BE PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR  
CHANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS WE GO TOWARD THE  
END OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S  
ACROSS THE AREA, SO BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT  
BREAKS IF YOU WILL BE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS! MSW  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TONIGHT FOR EACH TERMINAL.  
AM WATCHING A FEW STORMS ENTERING MORGAN COUNTY IN COLORADO THAT  
HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 60-90 MINUTES; HOWEVER THESE  
STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE  
WANED FROM EARLIER STORMS SO AM GIVING IT A LESS THAN 5% OF  
IMPACTING THE KGLD TERMINAL. FOR KMCK, AM SEEING A SIGNAL FOR  
STRATUS AND/OR FOG AROUND 11Z-15Z BUT THIS MAY END UP STAYING  
NORTH OF RED WILLOW COUNTY; HAVE KEPT THE TAF VFR FOR NOW BUT DO  
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF 6SM BR AND SCT010.  
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OR OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO MOVE  
THROUGH THE KGLD TERMINAL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED  
A PROB30 FOR THIS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THIS  
SCENARIO SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...024  
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL  
LONG TERM...WILLIAMS  
AVIATION...TRIGG  
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