039
FXUS63 KGLD 141727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
TODAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 60 MPH ARE FORECAST IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST AND A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW.
- NEXT WEEK, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND CULMINATING IN NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH BY THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK (THU-FRI).
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY WINDS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AROUND 15%.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WEST-NORTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA WHICH IS LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHERE THE
LOW IS. A SHORTWAVE IS SEEN WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WHERE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA AS EARLY AS 09Z AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
WITH SUCH A LARGE DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 700-500MB RH. THE CLOUD
COVER STILL DOES BRING SOME CONCERN AS TO HOW WARM WE ARE ABLE
TO GET ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO HAVE LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE BUT IS STILL
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HAVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IF
THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES COULD RESULT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING 30-35 MPH ARE AGAIN FORECAST WITH THE STRONGEST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. FURTHER EAST WINDS MAY BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT BUT STILL THINK
THAT 20-30 MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE 850MB JET IN PLACE.
WITH ALL OF THIS SAID THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE DAY CONTINUES
TO LOOK SOLID.
SHOULD ANY FIRES START, THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 06Z. IF THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE THEN
THE START TIME OF THE HIGH WIND PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED
UP. HAVE INCREASING CONCERN THAT THE INITIAL FRONT MAY PRODUCE
THE STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF THE ENTIRE EVENT DUE TO THE SURGE IN
COLD AIR ADVECTION. CURRENT MIXING HEIGHTS FORECAST HAS MIXING
HEIGHTS AROUND 3000-4000 FEET AGL OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH. I ALSO HAVE
INCREASING CONCERN FOR BLOWING DUST WITH THE FRONT EVEN PERHAPS
A HABOOB GIVEN THE MIXING HEIGHTS AND HOW DRY THE SOIL IS.
NASASPORT SUGGESTS 0-10CM SOIL MOISTURE LESS THAN 5% ROUGHLY
ALONG A HAIGLER TO JOES LINE AND ON SOUTH. THIS WAS ENOUGH FOR
ME TO TARGET ALONG THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD DUST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL SAVING VARIABLE TO DUST IS RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT
CURRENTLY AND THIS BASED ON CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS ON THE 03Z
RAP WHICH HAS THE BETTER OMEGA AND DEEPER SATURATION BEHIND THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. IF THIS IS INCORRECT AND THE
RAIN/SNOW CAN OCCUR WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT THEN THE
DUST THREAT WOULD GET CUT DOWN AS A WETNESS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
TOP SOIL MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP DUST AT BAY. THE DOWNSIDE IS IF
SNOW WERE TO OCCUR THEN BLOWING SNOW AS IT IS FALLING IS STILL
ON THE TABLE WHICH WOULD ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY. THERE IS A
SCENARIO AS WELL THAT WE COULD GET THE DUST INITIALLY AND THEN
THE SNOW WHICH WOULD CAUSE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH TWO
DIFFERENT WEATHER TYPES. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STILL
THERE ON THE NAM AS WELL BUT THE SURFACE CAPE IS A BIT SPOTTIER
THAN WHAT I WAS SEEING 24 HOURS AGO. ALSO AS I MENTIONED LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT QUITE THERE ON THE UNSTABLE ASPECTS THAT CONCERNS
ME FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IN THE BLOWING
SNOW SCENARIOS IS THAT BRIEF INSTANCES OF VISIBILITY FALLING
BELOW 1 MILE. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS IS ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27.
ON TOP OF EVERYTHING ELSE WITH THIS COLD FRONT, THERE IS CONCERN
THAT WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA MAKE A RETURN
TO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED IN SMOKE INTO THE FORECAST SINCE THE FIRES
AS OF TYPING THIS DISCUSSION STILL REMAIN UN-CONTAINED ALONG
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLARE UPS DURING THE DAY AND WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY FALLING TO
4SM OR LESS IN SMOKE IS AROUND 40% AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY, CONSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP MIX DOWN
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE AREA AS THEY EVENTUALLY
WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE
BLOWING DUST WORDING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE STRONG WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS ACTUALLY DO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
THROUGH THE DAY; AGAIN THE CAVEAT WILL BE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURS TO HELP SETTLE THE DUST.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE
CONSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -6 TO -9 C THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE WIND WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE
LOWER TEENS ARE FORECAST BUT COULD BE LOWER IF WINDS END SOONER AND
BECOME LIGHT AND IF CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR OUT AS DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES FOR
HIGHS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
WELL ON TRACK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS END UP BEING THREE
OR SO DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST GIVEN THE RIDGE NEARBY AND THE
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15% FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 20-40 MPH OVER
EAST CENTRAL CO, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
ONWARD THE WIND GUSTS WILL UP TO 30 MPH FOR EAST CENTRAL CO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
FOCUS REMAINS ON A STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING OVER KGLD AND
KMCK BETWEEN 05-07Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING QUICKLY TO 25-35 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 55 KTS.
BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS TO EITHER TERMINAL ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME FOR FLIGHT CATEGORICAL IMPACTS. RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 09-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITIES SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MCK FROM FIRES IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS THIS STRETCH OF WARM, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUES. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE DAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27
WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
FURTHER TO THE EAST WINDS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL DUE TO WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH STALLS OUT AT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT HUMIDITY WILL
FALL LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER
CONCERNS. IF WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN DEVELOP THEN A LARGE AREA
OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AND MAY FALL AS
LOW AS 5% ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND THE WINDS DOES SUPPORT EXTREME GFDI FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
TONIGHT A POTENT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH A SURGE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. SHOULD A FIRE BE
ONGOING THIS WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION NOT ONLY DUE TO
THE WIND SHIFT BUT ALSO WITH THE SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL
WITH POTENTIALLY A LONGER LIVED PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF
35-45 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT HELPS KEEP GFDI VALUES IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY
PRECLUDING THE NEED CURRENTLY FOR AN EXTENSION TO THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING OR A SEPARATE ONE FOR SUNDAY; THERE COULD BE
SOME WETTING RAIN/SNOW WITH THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH FURTHER
DECREASES THE NEED FOR ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUNDAY.
SHOULD A FIRE STILL BE ONGOING ON SUNDAY BE AWARE THAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING FOR
THE DAY WHICH WOULD POSE PROBLEMS FOR ANY RESPONSE TO A FIRE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HOSES TO FREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL
WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGIONAL ERC FORECASTS FROM
NIFC SHOW ERC'S RETURNING INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WINDY DAY BUT WITH DEEP MIXING
MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES DAILY WIND GUSTS AT
LEAST IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 8 PM
MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...KMK
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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