324  
FXUS63 KGLD 131724  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1024 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY EVENING. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15  
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH  
SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
- ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS  
ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 455 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST (THIS MORNING) WILL DEAMPLIFY/FLATTEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST  
ACROSS THE ROCKIES (THIS AFT-EVE). MEANWHILE, A BROAD UPPER  
LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST (THIS MORNING) WILL MOVE  
ASHORE (TODAY) AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
(TONIGHT-FRIDAY) AND ROCKIES (FRI NIGHT).  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE IN  
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY.. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
(SITUATED OVER CENTRAL KS AT 09Z THIS MORNING) PROGRESSES EAST  
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS  
WILL, HOWEVER, BE MODERATED BY THE FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER  
THE REGION, WHICH WILL MITIGATE (OR PARTIALLY OFFSET) DIURNAL  
HEATING AND DETRIMENTALLY AFFECT VERTICAL MIXING. EXPECT A  
MODEST WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20'S TO  
LOWER 30'S. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS) WILL INCREASE  
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WSW-SW IN ADVANCE OF THE  
BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST. EXPECT LOWS RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO  
UPPER TEENS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY  
OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING OR VERY EARLY FRI MORNING.  
 
FRIDAY: CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW  
WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON FRI AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER  
TROUGH APPROACHES THE ROCKIES.. A WEAK/BROAD LEE CYCLONE  
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEAST CO.. AND THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT  
FURTHER TIGHTENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. IN SUCH A PATTERN, BREEZY  
TO STRONG SSW-SW WINDS WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED, HOWEVER..  
THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL MITIGATE (OR  
PARTIALLY OFFSET) DIURNAL HEATING, DETRIMENTALLY AFFECT VERTICAL  
MIXING.. AND SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE MSLP PATTERN OVER THE  
REGION. VISUALIZE WHAT THE MSLP PATTERN LOOKS LIKE DURING A  
TYPICAL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES, NOW.. IMAGINE 'PICKING UP' A SURFACE HIGH (FROM  
SOMEWHERE ELSE) AND TOSSING IT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THAT MSLP  
PATTERN. THE SURFACE HIGH TOSSED INTO THE MIDDLE.. THAT'S THE  
SNOWPACK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF  
NUMEROUS FACTORS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO).. THE DEPTH AND  
AREAL EXTENT OF THE SNOWPACK.. THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL  
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION.. AND CLOUD COVER. SPEAKING OF  
CLOUD COVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THICK, OROGRAPHICALLY  
ENHANCED CIRRUS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,  
THOUGH.. IT MAY BE PERIODIC IN NATURE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND,  
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 40S TO LOWER 60S,  
WARMEST IN FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA  
(CHEYENNE CO, GREELEY/WICHITA KS).  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: THE LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHEAST CO WILL TRACK  
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FRI EVENING-NIGHT.. AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA  
FRI NIGHT.. AIDED (TO SOME EXTENT) BY NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LEE CYCLONE. LOW-LEVEL  
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND FALLING  
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION,  
POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, MAY DEVELOP ON THE WEST AND  
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LEE CYCLONE (OVER PORTIONS  
OF EASTERN CO AND NORTHWEST KS) FRIDAY EVENING (~00-06Z SAT)..  
PRESUMABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE TO 850 MB)  
FRONTOGENESIS AND CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN  
FRINGE OF A 120-150 KNOT (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL) JET STREAK  
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NM TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND  
SOUTHEAST KS. IN OTHER WORDS, PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WILL  
LIKELY BE A FUNCTION OF MULTIPLE VARIABLES. THE TIME-FRAME IN  
WHICH PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP (00-06Z SAT) IS THE SAME TIME-  
FRAME IN WHICH LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE, I.E.  
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE IN A STATE OF FLUX. WITH THIS IN MIND,  
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 103 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE LONG TERM IN WAKE OF  
A COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW DOES LOOK TO OCCUR AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY  
AS A DEEP MOIST LAYER LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM  
AND NAMNEST DO SUGGEST SOME FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE  
POTENTIAL WITH A WARM NOSE IN PLACE BUT THE NAM DOES HAVE A KNOWN  
BIAS FOR FREEZING RAIN SO WILL TAKE THAT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT FOR  
NOW BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE WHAT OTHER MODELS SHOW. I'M ALSO  
NOT SEEING ANY ADDITIONAL LIFT TO SUPPORT WITHER OF THOSE OCCURRING,  
EVEN FROM THE ISENTROPIC SIDE OF THINGS, WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT  
FLURRIES MAY BE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DENDRITIC  
GROWTH ZONE STARTING AROUND THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE BREEZY GUSTING 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY SO IF WE DO HAVE ANY  
ONGOING SNOWFALL WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON BLOWING SNOW  
POTENTIAL AS WELL. BY THAT TIME THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD BE  
CRUSTED OVER ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW ISSUES  
FROM THAT BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED BREAKAGE  
OF THE SNOW CRUST. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE  
DAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE NUDGED DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES A  
LITTLE MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S CURRENTLY  
FORECASTED. INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST  
TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND APPROACHING ZERO IN SOME  
SPOTS. DON'T THINK AT THIS TIME THAT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING  
WILL BE IN PLACE AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH BUT WILL NEED  
TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AS  
WE GET CLOSER.  
 
SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST  
RESULTING IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND TO AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST BUT  
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID 20S BASED  
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST SPEED OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.  
 
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO MONDAY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW  
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BEGINS TO FORM. TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS BOTTLED UP.  
AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND EJECTS EAST THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VERY  
COLD AIR TO LEAK DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE  
FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WARM IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BUT MAY NEED  
TO BE LOWERED BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE EJECTING LOW AND AS A WIND  
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASING LIFT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL  
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER. AS THE COLDER AIR SEEPS DOWN INTO THE  
AREA SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS STILL  
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH  
HIGHER NUMBERS THAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT. WIND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO  
INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TUESDAY AT THIS TIME  
LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS  
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD WITH 850MB  
TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C AND FULL CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD MAKE  
IT A STRUGGLE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET ABOVE ZERO. I'M NOT  
GOING TO GET QUITE ON BOARD WITH THAT SOLUTION AS OF NOW BUT ERR  
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AS THE ECMWF TYPICALLY DOES DO BETTER  
WITH LONGER RANGE SHALLOW ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. AIR TEMPERATURES  
WELL BELOW ZERO ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH  
WIND CHILLS ALREADY FORECAST AROUND -20F. MORE COLD AIR PRODUCTS  
AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR  
WEDNESDAY AM ALONG WITH TUESDAY AM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH  
THE BREEZY WINDS AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH  
BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA. JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST  
PERIOD THERE REMAINS SIGNALS THAT THE COLD AIR INTRUSIONS MAY  
COME TO AN END AS 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF  
CANADA WARM SOME AS RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH  
AMERICA RETURNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD THROUGH THE  
ENTIRE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT KMCK, RESULTING  
IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JUST  
STRENGTHENS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT  
LONG TERM...TRIGG  
AVIATION...024  
 
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