710
FXUS63 KGLD 032256
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST.
- MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CAMS
SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BY 21-22Z FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO, THEN
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE, SBCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG,
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 KTS. HOWEVER, THE HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DCAPE OF UP TO 2000
J/KG. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DUE TO
THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 03Z AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
WILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KTS.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AND THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S IN COLORADO TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
DURING THE EVENING IT IS MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE ISENTROPES WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT. THAT DOES CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
LLJ BECOMING ORIENTED MORE WESTERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70. CAMS NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON EXTENT OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT,
RANGING FROM THE RFS WHICH SHOWS NOTHING DEVELOPING TO THE 3-KM
NAM WHICH SHOWS QUITE A BIT. HOWEVER, THE HRRR PRESENTS A FAIRLY
GOOD COMPROMISE AND SHOWS SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AND SEEMS TO
FIT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO. HRRR SHOWS MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVERNIGHT AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KTS. SO, THESE ELEVATED
STORMS WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SMALL HAIL,
WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER UPDRAFT CAPABLE OF UP TO QUARTER SIZE
GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
OVERNIGHT STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ENDS. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUDS LINGER THE LONGEST TO THE
MIDDLE 80S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THEY CLEAR THE SOONEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SUGGESTING ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN, BUT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS BY AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. RFS SHOWS A EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAND OF MUCAPE OF UP
TO 1200 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KTS. SO SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO AND
KANSAS.
LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD END BEFORE 18Z, WITH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND IT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MAY INTERACT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE UP TO 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS. FORCING APPEAR TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, THE OLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH, BUT COULD
SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA (SOUTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83), WITH A LOW SEVERE RISK OF WIND AND HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND OUT OF THE
AREA RELATIVELY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). A PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S ON FRIDAY AND CLIMB TO TRIPLE
DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DUE
TO WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) IS
ONLY AROUND 15% FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA, SO LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, FUELS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S FOR THE
WESTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SLOWLY CREEP DOWN TO THE MID TO HIGH TEENS
THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WESTERN CWA, BUT LOWEST RH VALUES AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO COINCIDE, BUT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DRY FUELS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE
SET UP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WITH BRIEF,
GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH AND MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
BLOWING DUST. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN 03-05Z WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT KGLD DURING THAT TIME,
WHILE KMCK WILL SEE CEILINGS VERY NEAR THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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