547
FXUS63 KGLD 250626
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORMS IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, MAINLY IN NORTON, GRAHAM AND
GOVE COUNTIES.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME DENSE
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS WELL.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA AT RISK. LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS HAS BEEN
SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST WHICH IS DELAYING THE COLD FRONT AND
KEEPING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO A LITTLE LONGER. DUE TO THE DELAY IN THE FRONT,
THE CONCERN FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR HIGHER HAS
DECREASED DUE TO LESS OF A SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO TAKE ON AN INTERESTING SHAPE AS IT WILL SLOWLY
LEAK INTO THE AREA WITH EASTERN COLORADO BEING THE MOST FAVORED
FOR THE COOLEST CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AGAIN. RAINFALL POTENTIAL
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FAVORING EASTERN AND NORTHER PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG
THE FRONT AND WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO POOL UP.
INTO SATURDAY RAIN OR A LEAST A LIGHT DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLS OUT AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ESSENTIALLY TURNING INTO A DRY LINE. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
OCCURS WILL DICTATE IF WE HAVE A SEVERE STORM THREAT OR NOT
ACROSS DECATUR, NORTON, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM AND GOVE COUNTIES. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE DRY LINE SETTING UP JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT THE 18Z RRFS DOES HAVE IT LYING BACK CLOSER TO IN
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 25 AND HIGHWAY 83. IF THE RRFS SCENARIO DOES PAN
OUT THEN SUPERCELLS AND SPLITTING CELLS WOULD OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS. WITH STRAIGHT LINE
HODOGRAPHS IN PLACE EVEN IF STORMS WOULD DEVELOP JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ANY RIGHT MOVING STORM WOULD FAVOR A
SW TRACK DUE TO BUNKERS STORM MOTION VECTORS BUT WOULD MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AROUND 10-15 MPH. SO THERE COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE A
STORM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
OCCUR IS AROUND 20% AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AND OR DRIZZLE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE PUSHES
TO THE WEST AND THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS TURNS WINDS TO
THE EAST PROVIDING AN UPSLOPE FLOW. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
DENSE FOG AS WELL DURING THIS TIME BUT IF THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL IS GREAT ENOUGH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE FOG.
DUE TO THIS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF INTEREST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND MOVE TO THE EAST.
MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE QUALITY OF
THE MOISTURE IS TILL A LITTLE IN QUESTION. A STOUT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SUBTLE 500MB DIFFLUENCE FAVORING
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO FULLY OVERCOME SOME CAPPING SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE TWO AREAS THAT HAVE MY ATTENTION. THE
FIRST IS THE MORE CONDITIONAL BUT POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL
AREA ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST AND WHERE A MORE VOLATILE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO LIE AT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD ALL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. ALSO CAN'T COMPLETLEY RULE OUT A STRONG TORNADO IN
THIS AREA WITH ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND STORMS AT HIGHER RISK OF
BEING SURFACE BASED. A 2ND AREA OF FOCUS IS ACROSS THE WEST AND
ESSENTIALLY THE REST OF THE AREA WHERE A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING THE LIFT NEEDED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS AS WELL. THERE ARE A
FEW FAILURE POINTS TO THIS EVENT WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS POTENTIALLY STABILIZING THE
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS ALSO THE QUESTION OF MOISTURE QUALITY, IF
MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LESSER SUCH AS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S THEN STORMS MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREA. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING IS AROUND 60-70% WITH
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING AROUND 50-60% AT THIS TIME. THE
FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER STARTS AROUND 1PM SUNDAY WITH
THE PEAK TIME FROM 3-7PM MT BEFORE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
COMES TO AN END AROUND 9-10PM MT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
STARTING OFF THE WORK WEEK, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP IN
EASTERN KANSAS AND THERE IS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. OUR REGION IS IN A MOSTLY SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY, BUT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD INITIATE A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHETHER STORMS FORM OR NOT, WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN
MONDAY AS A JET STREAK SETS UP OVER OUR CWA. WINDS ARE FORECAST FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE I-
70 CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH
A JET STREAK OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM
YESTERDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 30 MPH FOR THE NORTHWEST
CWA AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (RH) ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS DO NOT ALIGN WITH THE LOWEST RH VALUES, SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL FOR TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE NORTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-50% DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVES AND JET
SUPPORT ALOFT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC HAZARDS AT THIS TIME, BUT
SPORADIC, WEAK CAPE PRESENT IN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO FORM, HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY ON, WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
CWA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH JET SUPPORT AND PASSING
SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS EACH TERMINAL AND WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT STRATUS WILL IMPACT EACH TERMINAL WITH IFR CEILINGS. MCK IS
FORECAST TO BE SOCKED IN IFR CONDITIONS FROM 14Z THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO IMPACT MCK AS WELL
SATURDAY MORNING BUT IS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL FOR GLD. STRATUS
IS FORECAST TO RETURN AT GLD AS WELL SATURDAY EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
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