050
FXUS63 KGLD 101932
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM LATE
THIS AFT-EVE, MAINLY IN CHEYENNE COUNTY CO AND GREELEY COUNTY
KS BETWEEN 6-10 PM MDT. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE COMING TO AN END IN THE AREA AS THE
MAIN LINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO
ALLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO HAVE LIGHT
WINDS AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND IN THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
MORE MILD TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MORE IN
THE 80S WITH SLIGHT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE,
NOT MUCH IS FORECAST TO BE DIFFERENT FROM THE PRIOR DAYS WITH
WEAK FLOW LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND TRY AND PUSH INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND
THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LOWER. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS STORMS
STAYING SOUTH OF I-70 AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS MISS THE
AREA COMPLETELY IF THE LOW SHIFTS TOO FAR SOUTH OR THE STORMS
CAQN'T SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. IF THEY DO SUSTAIN, SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS. THE HAIL SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, MAINLY
AROUND AN INCH BUT POTENTIALLY UP TO GOLF BALL IN SIZE IF A
STORM CAN STAY ISOLATED ENOUGH. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MORE IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE WITH A MAX AROUND 70 MPH AND ARE
MORE LIKELY IF STORMS CLUSTER. EITHER WAY, THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
A QUICK EVENT WITH STORMS ENTERING KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE [CO]
COUNTIES AROUND 4-5PM MT, MOVING SOUTHEAST, AND EXITING THE AREA
AROUND WICHITA/LOGAN/GOVE COUNTIES AROUND 7-10PM CT. THIS IS
ALL DEPENDENT ON STORMS MAKING IT INTO THE AREA IN THE FIRST
PLACE.
ONCE ANY STORMS CLEAR THE AREA, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AGAIN, WITH 50S POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 500-MB RIDGE WILL BE
OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 90S THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) LOOK TO STEADILY DROP THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WELL BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A
HEAT ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES).
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES HIGHEST TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE LINKED TO
A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROUGH, IN
ADDITION TO WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY BE SUCCESSFUL IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE. IF THIS FEATURE CAN BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT AND MOVE
MORE INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES, INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW MAY ALLOW FOR THE SLIGHT TEMPERATURE INCREASE. THIS
COULD AID IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. WHILE THIS IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA, IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, AS FUELS HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THIS ZONE DESPITE RECENT
RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER, IF ANY, WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
TRANSIENT WISPS OF CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 20,000 FT AGL. LIGHT (5-10
KNOT) NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, NEAR THE END
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KAK/RHOADES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page