777
FXUS63 KGLD 111032 CCA
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT DRIER AND BREEZY WITH ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- WARMING BACK UP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WINDY AND COLDER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SW KANSAS. BREEZY WINDS
OCCURRED WITH THIS FRONT BUT HAVE WEAKENED SOME ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LET UP SOME.
AM FORECASTING ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS TO OCCUR AROUND 12Z OR SO
AS ANOTHER TRAILING FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A BAND OF SNOW
HAS SET UP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO IMPACT MAINLY YUMA COUNTY BUT COULD AFFECT THE TRI-STATE
BORDER AREA CLOSER TO AROUND 10Z OR SO. MINIMAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION REMAINS FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY TIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. MUCH LOWER DEW
POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT EVEN DRIER DEW
POINTS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6000-8000 FEET. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE PRESENT WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE WINDS. I DID CONTEMPLATE A RED FLAG WARNING
DUE TO THE CONCERN FOR THE DRIER AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
OPTED TO HOLD OFF DUE TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER TREND WITH GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD MAKE THE EVENT EVEN MORE MARGINAL.
THE COOLER FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALSO BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
WELL AS TO HOW HOT A FIRE COULD GET. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO KEEPING GFDI IN THE "HIGH" CATEGORY WHICH TYPICALLY
ACTS AS AN ADDITIONAL NUDGE. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID, DID OPT TO
HOLD OFF A PRODUCT FOR TODAY DUE TO CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 3+
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ONLY BEING AROUND 30-40%;
CONFIDENCE IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL IS AROUND 60-70%. A
SURFACE MOVING INTO THE AREA IS FORECAST TO END THE WINDS WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SITUATING ITSELF ACROSS THE THE
CWA DURING THE EVENING LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THURSDAY MORNING THE HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHOVED OUT OF THE AREA
BY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING WARMING TO OCCUR. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS OCCURS WILL BE THE VARIABLE AS TO HOW LOW TEMPERATURES FALL
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PROMOTE STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOW 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA AS WINDS INCREASE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 WHERE PART OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE
BREAKS OFF AND INCREASES THE 700MB FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
AROUND 45-50 MPH WINDS ACROSS YUMA AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT
THE 00Z NAM INDICATES THAT THIS COULD ACTUALLY SET UP A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL INTO NORTHERN KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE (KS)
AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN SHERMAN COUNTY. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES A
STRONGER 700MB JET WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH WOULD BE A BIT
MORE COMMON ALONG WITH A ROGUE 60 MPH WIND GUST. CONFIDENCE IN
AT LEAST ONE WIND GUST OF 55+ MPH WINDS IS AROUND 35-45% AT THIS
TIME. FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS FOR THE AREA AS THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR NUMEROUS HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE MOST RAPID
SPREAD DUE TO THE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH, CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY
INCREASE IN THE WINDS WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
FRIDAY: MODEST WNW TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION.. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A 125-150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET OVER MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA
SITUATED ON THE SUBSIDENT, ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIURNALLY
RENEWED LEE TROUGH WILL YET AGAIN FOSTER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60'S TO LOWER-MID
70'S, COOLEST IN HILL CITY-NORTON-MCCOOK AND WARMEST IN EASTERN
CO. LIGHT (10-20 KNOT) SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY
SHALLOW MIXING (UP TO ~5,000 FT AGL) WILL PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, EXCEPT IN EASTERN CO..
WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES, DEEP VERTICAL MIXING (UP TO ~11,000
FT AGL) AND 20-30 KNOT SW TO W MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NW (DIGGING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES) WILL FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE IN COLORADO.. AND ANCHOR IT THERE
DURING THE DAY.. TEMPORARILY HOLDING A COLDER AIRMASS (OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) AT BAY. EXPECT FURTHER WARMING ASSOC/W LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS VIA THE 00Z 03/11 OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING (11,000 TO 13,000 FT AGL) AND 25-30 KNOT MID-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.. SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (A
THICK VEIL OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS) DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DENSE HIGH OVERCAST, IF PRESENT, WOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING.. DECREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL (TO
SOME EXTENT). A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING, AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION. A SHORT PERIOD OF SEVERE
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY RAPID/PRONOUNCED SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR.
SUNDAY: EXPECT AN ABRUPT TRANSITION TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER 40'S. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 55F.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: A MODERATING TREND WILL FOLLOW, EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (70'S) AND A POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER,
ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO START THIS
PERIOD WITH MVFR FORECAST TO IMPACT GLD AROUND 13-14Z. THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OCCURRING BETWEEN
12-14Z AT MCK. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AS WELL DURING THE TIME AS THE RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL. A RETURN TO
VFR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR MID MORNING BUT WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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