483
FXUS63 KGLD 302319
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
519 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES (30-40%) FAVORING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LITTLE TO
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. A 20% CHANCE OF FOG BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION FAVORING EASTERN COLORADO.
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER, DUST, STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE STORMS ALL POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- NEAR CRITICAL/POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ENDED FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE
HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM THUS FAR AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO FILTER IN, DO THINK ENOUGH WARMING WILL ENSUE FOR THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO WORK OUT AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY ERODING AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST REMAIN
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SUBTLE 700MB WAVE MOVES OFF OF THE ROCKIES LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW. INITIALLY THE
FAVORED LOCATION IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 BEFORE SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVES IN LEADING TO
A SMALLER THREAT FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS TONIGHT DUE TO THE
MEAGER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF
THESE WAVES. AM ALSO NOTICING AN INCREASING TREND IN POTENTIAL
FOG BEHIND THESE WAVES AS WELL WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE ADDED IN THE PATCHY FOG
WORDING FOR NOW. IF THE PRECIPITATION DOESN'T FORM THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT THEN MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE FOG AT THIS TIME IS FAVORED ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
MONDAY, LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONING DAY AS A STRONGER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM TODAY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHTNING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS GUST
AROUND 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO
THE EAST TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE WEST. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SHORT WAVE AT THE NOSE OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE SOME ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
REALIZED. WINDS DURING THE NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE BREEZY TO
GUSTY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
TUESDAY, HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MULTI HAZARD DAY. THE SURFACE LOW
FROM MONDAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST AS MOISTURE ADVECTS AHEAD OF IT AND THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE FIRST POTENTIAL HAZARD AND THE ONE WITH THE MOST CONFIDENCE IS
FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOGAN,
WALLACE, CHEYENNE (CO), GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES
ARE FORECAST TO BE BEHIND THE DRYLINE ALLOWING RH VALUES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TEENS. AN INCREASING WIND FIELD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO 40-55 MPH WINDS ACROSS THE WATCH COUNTIES
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF THE LOW CAN SHIFT
A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHICH A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO
SHOW THEN THE FIRE HIGHLIGHTS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE THE I-70 COUNTIES BUT AT THIS TIME MY
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LESS THAN 50%. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A RESULTING WIND SHIFT FURTHER ADDING TO
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE 2ND POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE BLOWING DUST AND STRONG WINDS. WITH
THE GUSTY TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PRESENT A SOURCE REGION OF
BLOWING DUST FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO AT THE VERY LEAST WILL LEAD
TO HAZY SKIES. THE GFS WIND FIELD REMAINS THE STRONGEST WHERE
SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60-65 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
I-70. I DID CONTEMPLATE A HIGH WIND WATCH BUT WITH THE GFS
CURRENTLY BEING THE OUTLIER WITH THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD AND
CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES OF THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW,
CONFIDENCE WAS ON THE LOW END OF 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS OCCURRING
OVER A LARGE AREA SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF
OTHER GUIDANCE CAN START GETTING ON THE SAME PAGE THEN ONE MAY
BE NEEDED. VERY FAVORABLE 0-2KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE WINDS. THE NASASPORT 0-10CM
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS GREELEY, WICHITA AND DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 20 RH RANGES; THE RECENT
RAIN/SNOW HAS IMPROVED AMOUNTS IN CHEYENNE CO BUT WITH THE
ANTICIPATED BREEZY WINDS AND WARMING TREND DO THINK THIS WILL
RE DRY OUT SOME. 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER HIGH WHICH MAKES
ME THINK THAT MOST OF THE DUST WILL JUST GET FILTERED OUT THE
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IT GOES LEADING TO MORE OF A HAZE; HOWEVER
WITH THE DRYNESS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT TO OPEN
FIELDS AND OTHER DUST SOURCE REGIONS. ALONG THE NORTH TO SOUTH
MOVING COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SOME DUST SOURCE REGIONS AROUND THE LOGAN/MORGAN COUNTIES IN
COLORADO WHERE THE SOIL MOISTURE ACCORDING TO NASASPORT
CURRENTLY IS IN THE 20S AS WELL. VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISE
AROUND 8-9MB OVER 3 HOURS AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PASSAGE MAY LEAD TO
SOME WALL OF DUST POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND 5
PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS THE WIND FIELD MAY BE WEAKER BEHIND THE
FRONT POTENTIALLY LEADING TO "WEAKER" WINDS THAN WHAT IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NEXT HAZARD IS SEVERE WEATHER AND HAS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH WILL HELP SHARPEN THE DRYLINE. THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRYLINE SURGE? THE
ECMWF CURRENTLY HAS THE DRYLINE THE FURTHEST WEST BACK TOWARDS
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, WHEREAS THE GFS HAS IT FURTHER EASTER
TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS (WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS OF THE GFS) AND
THE NAM IS IN BETWEEN THE 2 SOLUTIONS ACROSS MAINLY NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. THE NAM IS TYPICALLY MY GO TO 48+ HOURS OUT FOR
POTENTIAL DRYLINE SHIFTS SO WITH IT BEING FURTHER EAST DOES
DECREASE MY CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IN THE CWA;
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF IT DOES SHIFT BACK WEST SIMILAR TO
THE ECMWF. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS
DOES SEEM TO SUPPORT A HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL
BASED ON THE EBWD AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9 C.KM AND 70 MPH
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.IF STORMS DO FORM IN THE CWA THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE IF THEIR RESIDENCE TIME IN THE FORECAST AREA
CAN BE REALIZED FOR THESE HAZARDS TO PRESENT THEMSELVES.
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEHIND THE FRONT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN
WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOWFALL AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WEDNESDAY...AS TUESDAYS STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY, WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND
RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE
CHANCES AT 20% TO 30%. WE'LL ALSO EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY FROM FLAGLER TO SHARON SPRINGS AS THERE IS A
HINT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A
RATHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE AT 500MB WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, IN BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES
AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY PER GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS WITH GOOD 850-500MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO SUPPORT NBM POPS IN THE 20%-30% RANGE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. OVERNIGHT, DONT SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT NBM SHOWING 20% CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS SO WE'LL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 30% TO
50% RANGE DURING THE DAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND 40%-60% OVERNIGHT FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING MOVES GENERALLY EAST DURING THE
PERIOD, PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 30% TO 50% RANGE DURING THE DAY
DECREASE A BIT FROM THE NORTH INTO THE 20% TO 40% RANGE OVERNIGHT.
WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME MORNING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES IN THE MORNING
THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE LOWER 20S
TO AROUND 30.
SUNDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20% CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT THE HILL CITY, NORTON, MCCOOK AREAS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RATHER LOW GIVEN A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-
500MB LAYER. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AT KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVENING AS RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING.
AT KMCK...MVFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
LOWERED CEILINGS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS
TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IF THEY DEVELOP MAY RESULT
IN SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWERS
IS AROUND 20% AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
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