354
FXUS63 KGLD 090516
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1016 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS (FOR THE DATE) EXPECTED ON MONDAY FEB 09.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LIMITED
PORTION OF NORTHWEST KS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF GOODLAND.
- A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK
AND MAY BRING PRECIPITATION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
TODAY, A 500 MB TROUGH IS EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST AND
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AND LARGELY
REMAIN UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. A PRETTY SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED
DOWN AT 850 MB.
THE EXITING TROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TOMORROW,
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, A HIGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS WILL FUNNEL
WARM, SOUTHWESTERLY AIR INTO THE CWA. IN THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON, A LOW COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DRAPE A
LOOSE GRADIENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL HELP PULL
IN MORE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRE-
FRONTAL WARMING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH PREFRONTAL WARMING OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THE COOLER SOLUTION
HAS THE FRONT MOVING IN AROUND 15Z AND LIMITS TEMPERATURES TO
THE AROUND 70-75. THE WARMER SOLUTION HAS THE FRONT ENTERING
AROUND 18-20Z, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE 75-83 DEGREE
RANGE. THIS COULD SET SOME RECORD HIGHS, WHICH ARE SHOWN IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO
DROP INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. TOMORROW THE WIND IS
LESS IMPRESSIVE, BUT WE WILL HAVE A FRONT PASSING THROUGH. MORE
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
TONIGHT IS A MILD NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW NIGHT,
THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TIGHTENS UP AND NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UP AROUND 20 KTS. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME COOLER AIR, BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE
WELL MIXED AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE FELT. HIGHS AND LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50
AND UPPER 20S, RESPECTIVELY. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ELIMINATE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 30%. THERE IS A ~5% CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
WEDNESDAY WE REMAIN IN A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH DEVELOPING OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. THURSDAY REMAINS WARM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE HIGH
50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S.
WE SEE CHANCES FOR A PATTERN CHANGE BEGIN THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO PROPOGATE
TOWARDS OUR AREA. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM
10-40% OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM 30-50%
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THEY QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY
EVENING. RAIN IS THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO OVERALL
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CONSISTENT 0 DEGREE CELSIUS LINE
AROUND 700 MB IN CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS. THERE IS 60-70%
CHANCE THAT RAIN IS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. THREE OF
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING 2+ INCHES OF SNOW, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING.
MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE CONUS. ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO OUR REGION AND HIGHER QPF
VALUES. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE OVERALL SHOWING A MORE
SHALLOW TROUGH AND LESS OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION
FOR OUR AREA.
INSTABILITY IS ANOTHER FACTOR FOR UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODEL TO MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN AN UPTICK IN CAPE FOR OUR
REGION, BUT THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS OCCURS CHANGES WITH EACH
RUN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE, BUT IF THE
SYSTEM CAN TAP INTO ANY CAPE, INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
BY SUNDAY, OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) RETURNS TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 50S/LOW 60S
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH
TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
UPDATE AT 445 PM MST SUN FEB 08: RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LIMITED PORTION OF NORTHWEST KS MONDAY AFTERNOON.. MAINLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF GOODLAND (LEOTI, OAKLEY, HILL CITY), ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING LEE TROUGH, WHERE SW
WINDS MAY REACH 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ~30 MPH.
PRIOR DISCUSSION: TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
EVEN HIGHER, DRIVING RH VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TOMORROW AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS BEING SO SLOW,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
WITH THE WIND SHIFT, ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR MAY BE MORE
UNPREDICTABLE THAT NORMAL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE (FEBRUARY 09) ARE LISTED BELOW (IN
FAHRENHEIT).
FEBRUARY 09 RECORDS
===================================================
LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST HIGH
===================================================
GOODLAND, KS..........78 (1976) 75
HILL CITY, KS.........81 (1996) 78
BURLINGTON, CO........75 (1976) 74
MCCOOK, NE............76 (1954) 75
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...CA
CLIMATE...CA
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