832
FXUS63 KGLD 260527
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, FOG TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURE/POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
MOST HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE
THEY PUT THE LIFT AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS CAPTURING THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION AREA WELL.
AS THIS AREA MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, IT WILL ENCOUNTER A
STRONGER CAP PER SPC MESOANALYSIS DUE TO THE LACK OF SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO THE LIFT THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO GETS LESS. THE
STORMS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE ABOVE REASONING.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR. DUE TO LOW HAIL
HEIGHTS IT APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT OUTSIDE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE SMALL HAIL. AFTER THE HEATING ENDS AND LIFT MOVES AWAY,
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE DONE BY LATE EVENING.
NEXT THING TO ADDRESS IS THE FOG. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THE SURFACE/LOW MOISTURE PROFILE THE LAST FEW DAYS. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STICKING AROUND LONGER. DUE TO LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS, HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG THROUGH
MID MORNING TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARMER. HOWEVER,
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARMER.
GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BE TOO COOL RECENTLY AND WENT TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST BLEND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES/BIAS AND BETTER PERFORMING
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER RANGE FROM NEAR 16 TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THIS
AREA WHICH WILL CREATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SO THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY CRITERIA COULD POSSIBLY BE REACHED BUT THE WINDS WILL
DEFINITELY FALL NOT ONLY BELOW BUT BELOW CRITERIA. SO AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
A TROUGH FORMS OFF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTING FRIDAY, WITH THE
CLOSED LOW INTEGRATING INTO THE TROUGH. A RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS SPLIT FLOW IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER
COLORADO/UTAH AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO
OSCILLATE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SOME SNOW TO THE TRI-STATE REGION.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERN
COLORADO COULD SEE SOME RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE MAIN SNOW THREAT IS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS START IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCE THE
SAME DECREASING THEN INCREASING TREND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS START IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS THEN
INCREASE INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK WILL BE PATCHY FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING PERIOD. ALREADY
SEEING VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KMCK, SO CONFIDENCE
HIGHEST THERE, THOUGH THINK IT WILL BE VARIABLE. SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WORKING AGAINST FOG AT KGLD, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT SOME POINT. AFTER ABOUT 14Z, THE FOG
THREAT WILL END AT BOTH TERMINALS AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...024
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