654
FXUS63 KGLD 251117
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
517 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. A
STRONG LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG
I-70, WITH HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.
- BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. CLOUD
COVERAGE TODAY MAY LOWER OVERALL SEVERE STORM CHANCES TODAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-70 AND
IN EASTERN COLORADO.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ARE MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
A STRONG LINE OF STORMS STRETCHING FROM YUMA TO NORTON COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED,
STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
STILL POTENTIAL HAZARDS AS THIS LINE MOVES TO SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS/ALONG I-70. THE PRIMARY RISK THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE
FLASH FLOODING AS MOST OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED ROUGHLY 1-6
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CWA CLOSER TO DAYLIGHT, WITH LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NOT EXPERIENCING
CONVECTION WHERE SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUD DECK IS POSSIBLE.
MOVING THROUGH THE REST MORNING, THE LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL GIVE
WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED THE OVERALL RISK FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-70 AND IN EASTERN COLORADO AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN
AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, HEAVY
RAIN WILL AGAIN BE CONCERN WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP, THEREFORE
CONTINUING THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS OF OUR AREA. STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE HINDERED/AIDED BY CLOUD COVERAGE/CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
BY TONIGHT, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH BEST CHANCES PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA CLOSER TO NIGHTTIME. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION OUT OF A MOSTLY ZONAL
PATTERN INTO A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH WEST OF
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S TO
80S WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN, BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 90S TO 100S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), THIS
LESSENS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
CONDITIONS COOL SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS
AFTER TUESDAY AS AN INCOMING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS SINCE THIS IS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
LINGERING RA WITH TSRA/VCTS AROUND GLD AND MCK THIS MORNING.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN AS CLEARING
BEGINS PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/-RA
AND DEVELOPING BR AT BOTH TAF SITES. BR WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500
FEET INTRODUCE PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND 03Z FRIDAY.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND VCTS MAY DEVELOP AROUND 20Z TODAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAY BE,
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
OBSERVATIONS AT OBERLIN SHOW THE SAPPA CREEK AS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE, ALLOWING THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING TO BE DROPPED. HOWEVER,
BASED ON UPCOMING QPF, THE RIVER MAY RETURN BACK TO 15.5 FEET
(MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). DUE TO THIS FORECAST, A RIVER FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAPPA CREEK AT OBERLIN TO THE
COUNTY LINE. BASED ON THE 1996 FLOODING ALONG THE SAPPA CREEK,
THE NCRK1 GAUGE SHOULD SEE A RISE TO AROUND 10-12 FEET, WHICH IS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ALSO, BASED ON THE EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE REPUBLIC RIVER WILL ALSO SEE AT LEAST IN BANK
RISES.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN HAVE LEAD TO 1-6
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA, SAVE FOR
CHEYENNE COUNTY, CO. STORMS TONIGHT EARLY IN THE EVENT LOOK TO HAVE
SLOW MOTIONS. BUNKERS RIGHT MOTION LOOK TO CRAWL AROUND 5-15 KTS
WITH BUNKERS LEFT MOTION MOVING AROUND 10-25 KTS. 0C LEVELS LOOK TO
STILL BE IN THE 15,000 FOOT RANGE, LEADING TO A DEEP MELTING LAYER.
PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.2-1.5 INCH RANGE, SO EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.
IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THAT, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT "FINGERS" OF
BACKBUILDING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD KEEP EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION OVER ONE AREA FOR UP TO A FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.5 INCH TOTALS, BUT SWATHS OF 3.5-5+ INCHES.
WHAT IS EXTRA CONCERNING IS GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE HIGH RAINFALL
TOTALS OCCURRING NEAR THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OFF AND ON TOMORROW AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
MAY BECOME A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ090-091.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JTW
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...JTW
HYDROLOGY...CA
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