466
FXUS63 KTOP 082322
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY POINTS:
- DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING
- CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
- MAINLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, THEN WARMER AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TODAY'S SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH
THE NE PANHANDLE, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE. THE SFC PATTERN SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES WITH A DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS. LIFT HAS REMAINED WEAK THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS DRIZZLE/MIST ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING, DRY AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT. WEAK CAA BRINGS MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S.
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH BETTER THAN TODAY -- PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
THOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WITH A WEAKER VORT MAX
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMING OUT OF OK. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK-
HITTING CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HREF DATA TENDS TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES, AND TEMPERATURES
PROFILES WOULD FAVOR ALL RAIN. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIP WOULD NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED, BUT THAT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET WITH GRADUAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE INTO MONDAY EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE IN THE REGION. BY TUESDAY, THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE A
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN WHERE EXACTLY THE DRY SLOT WILL END UP. CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, BUT THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO NEGATE ANY POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES AS WE
ARE STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
LIFR CEILINGS AND DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRINGS DRIER AIR EASTWARD. SKIES WILL
THEN TRY TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
FOG OR IFR STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS ACROSS NORTHERN KS,
JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN TAF SITES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...REESE
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