559
FXUS63 KTOP 191031
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
07Z WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
PLACED THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE OBS
SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGION.
THERE ISN'T A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE NBM SHOW
SMALL SPREADS IN TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FOR
SUNDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR WHAT EVER
REASON THE NBM SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME ROOM ON THE WARM SIDE FOR
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE SEVENTY FIFTH PERCENTILE AT 83 FOR TOPEKA.
HOWEVER THE STRAIGHT ENSEMBLES, HYBRID GEFS AND AIGEFS SHOW MUCH
LESS ROOM ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MEAN HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS SEEMS TO FIT IN WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS WHICH AGREE ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND MIDDAY WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER FOR SUNDAY EXPECTING
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO LIMIT THE WINDOW FOR WARMING. OTHERWISE THE
BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK
BOUNDARIES OCCASIONALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE, PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO NIL AND THE
BOUNDARY PASSAGES HAVE THE EFFECT OF KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THEN THE UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
CAUSING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO RECOMMENCE. SO THE
FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS TO AROUND 90. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT
SEVEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
DRY AIR AND NO MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EACH
OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST, RH VALUES LOOK TO
BE AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT EACH OF THE AFTERNOONS. MEANWHILE
FUELS FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN DORMANT WITH ANY GREEN UP IN THE VERY
EARLY STAGES ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE BIGGER FIRE WEATHER DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME STRONGER THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE PLAN IS TO CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A MARGINAL
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS SPEEDS. BUT WE AMY
END UP NEEDING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SATURDAY IF WINDS TREND EVEN A
LITTLE STRONGER.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT FALLING TEMPS COULD KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE 35 PERCENT. STILL THE WIND SHIFT WOULD CREATE PROBLEMS FOR ANY
FIRE THAT MAY START ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 85 (1953) 86
CONCORDIA 83 (1916, 1934, 2011) 86
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 91 (1907, 1916) 90
CONCORDIA 97 (1907) 91
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 56 (2012) 47
CONCORDIA 50 (1894, 1935, 2011) 49
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 22
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 65 (1907) 60
CONCORDIA 56 (1935, 1936) 54
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...WOLTERS
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