153
FXUS63 KTOP 220820
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
220 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A NICE WARMING TREND BECOMES MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING LOWER FOR THE
WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A MOSTLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE A SOUTHERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DEEPENING OVER THE BAJA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION.
RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE EACH MORNING BY ABOUT THE SAME
AMOUNT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY DOUBLE ACROSS
THE AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHICH WILL HELP SNOW MELT SPEED UP
DRASTICALLY DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED. ON SUNDAY, A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD HELPING TO INCREASE THE H85 TEMPS TO AROUND 10C. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY COULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS FROM DOWNSLOPING FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.
NEXT WEEK, MUCH WELCOME WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS THE MEAN
WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE AREA. BROAD RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH H85 TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY STEADY HELPING TO KEEP
SUPPORT IN PLACE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
SPREAD AMONGST GUIDANCE IS LOW OVERALL, WHICH LEADS TO A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN FOR THE MID-WEEK TIME
FRAME REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE QUALITY APPEARS TO BE LOW PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT THERE COULD SUFFICIENT LIFT TO HELP DEVELOP
AN ELEVATED SATURATED LAYER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE PASSING TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE YEAR, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE STEEP ENOUGH
FOR SOME THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY HINTED AT. RIGHT NOW, OVERALL
TRENDS POINT TO LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MIDDAY SATURDAY TO AROUND 10 KTS.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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