851
FXUS63 KTOP 020512
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1212 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE (60% CHANCE), MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS, BUT
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A COLD FRONT.
- DRIER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT HAS STALLED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN OUT WEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THIS PM, SHOULD SEE THE FRONT LIFT A BIT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,
LIKELY TO SOMEWHERE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-35 BY LATE EVENING.
EXPECTING A BETTER NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE THEN WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS KANSAS.
THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN,
AND WILL BE TIED TO MESOSCALE DETAILS RELATED TO CONVECTION IN OUR
SOUTH THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS, STILL HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE
(60%) IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD
FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK BY MID-EVENING
ALONG THE WARM FRONT, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL (MOSTLY
SOUTH OF I-35) 8PM-12AM. THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS A
TYPICAL EARLY SEASON LOWER CAPE, HIGHER SHEAR SETUP. LARGE HAIL
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH ANY INITIAL CONVECTION, FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO MORE MESSY CONVECTION AS UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THIS OCCURS. THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER
FAVORABLE WITH STRONGLY VEERING WINDS, BUT THE MESSY STORM MODE
COUPLED WITH SOME SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL STABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WILL
LIMIT NEAR SURFACE ROTATION. BEHIND THE FIRST LINE, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL
KS. CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER HERE, AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THE
FIRST ROUND MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY ENOUGH THAT STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE
UNABLE TO DEVELOP. IF THEY CAN DEVELOP THOUGH, EVEN MORE FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A SUSTAINED WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE
FAVORABILITY/UNFAVORABILITY OF THIS SECOND THREAT WILL BE MESOSCALE
DRIVEN, WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL UNTIL
VERY LATE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO QUICKLY CLEAR OUT BY AROUND SUNRISE AS THE
LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER NORTHERN KS. WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND LITTLE
CIN, GOOD CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH, ESPECIALLY
WITH SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. AN INITIAL HAIL
THREAT WOULD GIVE WAY TO A WIND THREAT AS THIS OCCURS, WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING MOST STORMS OFF TO OUR EAST BY AROUND SUNSET.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S SYSTEM, WE FINALLY LOOK TO SEE A MORE SUSTAINED
STRETCH OF COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE OPPORTUNITIES, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
EARLY APRIL AVERAGES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
THURSDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 4-6 AM WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO IFR. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING NEAR A TERMINAL IN THE 7-12P TIMEFRAME
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO KEPT OUT MENTION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF
THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TO AROUND OR BELOW 10
MPH BY SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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