532
FXUS63 KTOP 210849
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN MISSOURI MCS HAS MOVED WESTWARD
THROUGH TOPEKA AND GARNETT AT 08Z THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM ACROSS PARTS
OF JEFFERSON, JACKSON, SHAWNEE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNRISE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
EXPECT MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OR HIGHER
POPS GIVEN MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
25 TO 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS FORECAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS ALTHOUGH
SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH THE MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOWS PRESENT MAY SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. IN
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND TWO INCHES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.
GIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS BEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LOWER
80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO HIGH IN THE MID
90S FROM GARNETT TO BURLINGTON. HAVE CONTINUES THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
TONIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HAZARDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
FROM MONDAY ONWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS A UPPER HIGH RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH REGRESSES WESTWARD AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ENERGY ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN KANSAS AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WARMING TO AROUND 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OF THIS PAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST MO WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
THE TERMINALS WILL BE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE MFVR CONDITIONS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ058-059.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...GARGAN
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