269
FXUS63 KTOP 281944
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
244 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS MON/TUE (SEE DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW).
- POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY, COOLER BY
MID WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT THEN WARMING AGAIN INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR MOISTURE APPEARS TO SET UP PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- FRIDAY IS STILL TRENDING MOIST WITH A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE REGION POINTING TOWARD MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS STILL FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS NEARLY READY TO
SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE. SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
RESIDES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A BROAD
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
WESTERN ROCKIES. A BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE
RETURN FLOW IS FIRMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS POSITIONED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH A LEE
TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
REST OF TODAY, FIRE WEATHER WITH SOUTH WINDS FIRMLY IN CONTROL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER).
MONDAY, LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY THE NEXT RECORD BREAKING DAY FOR AT
LEAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EITHER COMING NEAR OR BREACHING OLD RECORDS
FOR TOP/CNK AND POSSIBLY WARM LOW TEMPS INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
TOP. DATA FROM NAEFS ENS SUGGEST MONDAY H85 TO H7 LEVELS WILL BE
NEAR MAX PERCENTILES. THE NBM SPREADS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN ONE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE TO FEEL OVERLY CONFIDENT IN NEW RECORDS. HOWEVER,
THE MEAN VALUE IS NEAR THE UPPER PERCENTILE RANGE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST MOST VALUES FOR ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE HIGHER END. WILL SEE WHAT
THE TRENDS LOOK LIKE OVERNIGHT INTO 12Z DATA SUNDAY. BUT, HOT AGAIN
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY.
INTO MID WEEK, AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCE POPS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT A SLIGHT SOUTHERN
STREAM OF ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST IN THE GREAT LAKES. PROBLEM IS THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE BEST FORCING
TO THE NORTH. SO, IF MUCH PRECIPITATION RESULTS INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IT WOULD MAKE SENSE IF IT WERE TO BE PARTIALLY CONVECTIVE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT THEN A SITUATION WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS A WEAKER WAVE EMERGES
FROM THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
BETTER CHANCE FOR A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP APPEARS TO COME
INTO THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME WHEN A MORE AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH
WORKS ONSHORE AND DEEPENS AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
OVERALL KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS WITHIN THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MOIST CONVERGENCE TO SET UP ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA AT
LEAST. STILL TOO MUCH VARIABILITY AT THIS TIME BUT WORTH
WATCHING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AVIATION ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
RELAXING SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT PERIOD AS WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM
ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH DRY
FUELS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 MPH (ESPECIALLY
WESTERN AREAS) AND LOW RH IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 10-20%.
ANY FIRE THAT STARTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO BURN EFFICIENTLY AND SPREAD
RAPIDLY WITH ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR AND THUS BECOME DIFFICULT TO
CONTAIN. SIMPLY DO NOT BURN AND ENSURE ANY PREVIOUS FIRES HAVE BEEN
FULLY EXTINGUISHED.
SUNDAY MAY STILL SEE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT GONE
WITH MENTION ANY CRITICAL OR EXTREME DANGER AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA INTO THE AREA. THUS, EXPECT RH VALUES
TO REMAIN HIGHER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY ALSO SEE CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK
MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AREAS
AS EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MORE MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AND INCOMING COLD FRONT SET TO
ARRIVE INTO THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
FIRE WEATHER...DRAKE
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