417
FXUS63 KTOP 162333
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW BEFORE RELAXING
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- COLD SATURDAY THEN A BRIEF WARMUP SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES FOR MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY THEN
REMAINING MAINLY STEADY AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A BROAD AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. HINTS OF A REX BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOK TO BE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A SOUTH
PACIFIC LOW SPINNING WEST OF THE BAJA REGION AND SOCAL. ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREAS CAA REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. INTENSITY AND DEVELOPMENT
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN LIMITED BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SATURATION
IN THE DGZ WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ALONG WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED LIGHT
SNOW BURSTS WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES PERHAPS TO
AROUND 1 MILE AS THE ENTIRE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WORKS FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
EXPECT SATURDAY TO REMAIN COLD AS A 1030MB HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE
REGION QUICKLY DIVING SOUTH WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY AND A RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH RE-INFORCES THE COLD AIR HELPING TO KEEP
MORNINGS VERY COLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LIKELY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO PERHAPS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES FOR LOW LYING AREAS DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW MUCH WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURE BUT THE WESTERN RIDGE DOES BROADEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ULTIMATELY
BREAKS DOWN INTO THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW
MOST ENSEMBLES KEEP NORTHERN STREAM STORMS TRACKING NORTH OF THE
REGION AND SOUTHERN STREAM STORM TRACKS ALSO REMAIN MORE LIKELY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CONUS.
MONDAY MAY BECOME A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY IF WINDS ARE STRONGER
THAN FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO DRY FUELS AND LOWER RH VALUES INTO
THE 20S. HOWEVER, WITH THE NORTHWEST WIND, WARMING MAY BE LIMITED
HELPING TO KEEP FIRE DANGER AT OVERALL LOWER LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA HAVE LED TO
SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS, BUT THIS HAS BEEN SO LOCALIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED THAT IT DOESN'T WARRANT ANYTHING MORE A PROB30
MENTION FOR TERMINALS, SO WILL MAINTAIN THAT FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WANES LATER INTO THE EVENING
WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES, THEN BECOMING DRY ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NW WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 30+ KTS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND 06Z WITH MAINLY 20-25 KT GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THAT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...PICHA
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