215  
FXUS63 KTOP 100909  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
409 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES BY FRIDAY INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT  
OR CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE  
RIVER BOTTOMS HERE AT BILLARD AIRPORT THIS MORNING BUT  
SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW MOST AREAS FOG FREE THIS MORNING AT THE  
MOMENT WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE  
AREA.  
 
OVERALL A QUIET, STAGNANT BUT PLEASANT WEATHER PATTERN  
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL REMAIN ON  
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN US TROUGH THROUGH  
TUESDAY. BY WEDS IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTERN US TROUGH WILL  
EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS NE DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF  
WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND UPPER RIDGE  
OVER THE TX GULF COAST SO STORM CHCS APPEAR LOW ACROSS  
NORTHEAST KS DESPITE THE FORCING. THE BIGGER STORY ON WEDS WILL  
BE THE HIGHS WHICH SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  
 
THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT INTO MN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A  
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH COULD  
TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY  
WHEREVER IT ENDS UP. CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ANY  
ADDITIONAL ENERGY OR TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION SAT INTO SUN IS  
LOW AT THIS POINT WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND THE  
GFS IN HANDLING A TRAILING UPPER SYSTEM HOWEVER IT WOULD APPEAR  
THAT STORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING BY NEXT SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025  
 
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH  
LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SMALL SHALLOW  
FOG ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS AT TOP OTHERWISE NO VIS OR CIG  
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...OMITT  
AVIATION...OMITT  
 
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