531
FXUS63 KTOP 171118
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
618 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WINDY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY.
-STRONG STORMS FORM NEAR I-35 THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.
-MORE WET WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH A RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AND FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BOOSTS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING STRONG STORMS TO EAST-CENTRAL KS. THIS
MORNING, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
NORTHERN KS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS
MN/WI. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH HAS PROMPTED THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS EASTERN KS
THIS MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-35. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT 70+ DEW
POINTS BACK INTO EASTERN KS. THE COMBINED MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPS IN
THE MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON WILL CORRELATE TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. IN ADDITION TO
WIND AND HEAT, STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TODAY'S COLD FRONT AROUND
21/22Z NEAR I-35. THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF HERE, BUT STORMS THAT FORM IN EAST-CENTRAL KS WILL DO SO IN
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 3000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 45-50 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM HRRR AND RAP SHOW AN INVERTED V
PROFILE AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, WITH A MORE LIMITED TORNADO RISK DUE TO
LOWER VALUES OF SRH GIVEN AN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL VEERED WIND PROFILE.
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA, ONLY IMPACTING A FEW COUNTIES.
ON THURSDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP NEAR I-70 BY MIDDAY
WHERE THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL LIFT AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS. SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
CONDITIONS DRY ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE
MID 80S.
WET WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN KS ON
SATURDAY, PROVIDING ANOTHER WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES BUT THE LREF AND NBM HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WITH STORMS THAT FORM. NBM
QPF HAS A NEARLY 50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL
SAT/SAT NIGHT AND A 35% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 2.0 INCH OF RAIN AT
KTOP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
GUSTY WINDS IMPACT TERMINALS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING AND WILL GUST TO NEAR
40 KTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST MIDDAY, AND EVENTUALLY TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DECREASING. A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT BUT VFR PREVAILS THIS PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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