116
FXUS63 KTOP 271938
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
138 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR THE WHOLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
- A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT DUE TO
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
LEFT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. SURFACE OBS SHOWED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
NORTHERN MO. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG WITH FULL
SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH NO OBVIOUS FORCING FOR PRECIP. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS FROM
THE MODELS OF SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN SOME OF THE CAMS
DEVELOP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. BUT MOST GUIDANCE FAILS TO
SATURATE THE LAYERS WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRODUCE ANY
QPF. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE CONSENSUS SHOWING NO
PRECIP, BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER POPS UP OVER
COFFEY OR ANDERSON COUNTIES. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THIS COULD MAKE HIGHS A LITTLE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP. FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO
BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND THAT HAS A GOOD
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HIGHS.
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY IS WHAT SETS THE STAGE FOR A WINTRY MESS ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE WITH COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE WAVE SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL A
MIXED SIGNAL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN. THE GFS IS
THE COLDEST SOLUTION AND WOULD SUGGEST MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE
ECMWF REMAINS ONE OF THE WARMER SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR FREEZING RAIN. AND THERE ISN'T MUCH DIRECTION ON WHICH WAY TO GO
FROM THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, WHICH SUPPORT THEIR OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS. WHAT DOES SEEM CLEAR IS THERE WILL BE SOME WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION AND HAVE KEPT THE BLEND FORECAST FROM THE NBM AS A
REASONABLE FIRST GUESS. THE BEST TIMING OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BEGIN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF MONDAY AS THE LIFT EXITS EAST. AREAS ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 MAY SEE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AN ICE STORM
IN THE OFFERING AS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT INCLUDING THE NBM AND SREF SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AT AROUND 10 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY
THE K-STATE MESONET SHOWS AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPS FROM THE PAST SEVEN
DAYS RANGING FROM 38 TO 42 DEGREES. HOWEVER IF THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH A STRONGER WARM NOSE AND SURFACE
TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING THERE COULD BE MORE FREEZING RAIN WITH
ELEVATED SURFACES SEEING SOME ICE ACCUMULATION SUNDAY EVENING. WE
WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT SOME POINT
WITH THIS SYSTEM SIMPLY FOR THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPE AND MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE TO
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO INFRASTRUCTURE.
THE FORCING FOR PRECIP LESSENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT CLOUD
COVER MAY MAKE IS DIFFICULT FOR A BIG WARM UP. AGAIN THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD SPREAD IN POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN
HIGHS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE JET STREAM REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN WARM FOR ALL RAIN. THE NBM
HAS POPS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY, BUT BASED ON THE OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK STAND THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD,
THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS. SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RIVERS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BRING A SCATTERED MID DECK INTO THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH
LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FORECAST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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