770  
FXUS63 KTOP 131103  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
503 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- COLD THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -20 DEGREES. A  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR  
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
- A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW IS LOOKING  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY (15-30%) FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT THERE  
COULD BE SOME MINOR IMPACTS.  
 
- RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT  
ACCUMULATIONS (1" OR LESS) FAVORED.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SURFACE HIGH HAS  
BROUGHT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH AIR TEMPERATURES  
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS OF 5-10 MPH HAVE  
MADE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WIND CHILLS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE -5 TO  
-18 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9 AM FOR  
ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE THE  
COLDEST. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING  
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST WAA AND  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO THE  
DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE LOW-LEVEL  
WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE WITH 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO  
AROUND 60KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH  
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY BE EVEN HIGHER IF  
DEEPER MIXING IS REALIZED; THE HREF MEAN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 50  
MPH GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT  
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BOOST  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  
 
A SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH  
LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, WILL GENERATE A  
BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING INTO  
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS UNCERTAIN AS  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH OF A WARM-NOSE  
AROUND 800MB THAT WILL RESIDE ABOVE A SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE COLD  
LAYER. TEMPERATURES OF 1-3 DEGREES C WITHIN THE WARM NOSE SUPPORT  
PARTIAL TO FULL MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS, LEADING TO SLEET OR  
FREEZING RAIN AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES. SNOW MAY MIX IN AT  
TIMES, ESPECIALLY IF THE WARM NOSE IS A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST,  
AND SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE BAND  
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE, BUT THERE COULD BE  
SOME MINOR IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FROM ANY  
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED ROCKIES TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SHUNTING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS THE WAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY PASS  
THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY  
BEFORE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SWITCH  
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS SIGNAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS WELL.  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE STEADILY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW  
CYCLES AND THE MAJORITY (~70%) OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1" OR LESS.  
 
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY, ALBEIT COLD WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS OF -5  
TO -15 AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN  
CONTINUES AFTER SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS  
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SNOW THAT DIVES SOUTH  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS  
STRONGLY FAVORS MORE OF AN OPEN, FAST-MOVING WAVE WHICH WOULD  
FAVOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF  
COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND  
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING  
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ008-  
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-  
KSZ034.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN  
AVIATION...FLANAGAN  
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