090
FXUS63 KTOP 260425 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1125 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA
RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.
LOWS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IN FACT, SEVERAL
LOCATIONS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US TOMORROW. DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE
EAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS. SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. A NICE BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND WAA
OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE PBL. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST FALL
(TOPEKA WAS LAST IN THE 70S ON OCTOBER 29TH). POPS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL START
TO SET UP FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHEAST KS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO INCREASE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ELEVATED CAPE IN THE RANGE OF 300-600
J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CAP IN PLACE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. EVERYTHING COMBINED, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN KS INTO EAST-
CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY. A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS LOOKS
TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE CURRENT QPF FROM RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK RANGES FROM A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN EAST-CENTRAL KS TO NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER. FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70 COULD AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT COULD EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL BUT TOP SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS CONDS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LOWER
RIVER BOTTOMS OF TOP GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RH. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE THE SCT TO BKN CIGS IN THE
060-080 RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TEEFEY
LONG TERM...TEEFEY
AVIATION...OMITT
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