650
FXUS63 KTOP 161129
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
529 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND COLD FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT VISIBILITIES
COULD FALL QUICKLY WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS.
- NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE
COMMON.
- COLD CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING. A BRIEF WARM-UP
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD COMES MLK JR. DAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
3 AM MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN NE AND NORTHERN KS, RIDGING
OVER THE PNW WITH NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS, A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA -
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS - AND HAS USHERED IN STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN WITHIN IN SOME AREAS OF
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOST
STAYING DRY.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS - SOME EXHIBITING
SNOW SQUALL CHARACTERISTICS. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS, DIURNAL
MIXING SHOULD PROMOTE WINDS FROM 800-700 MB TO REACH THE SURFACE AND
PUSH WIND GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY, AREAS THAT WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE AREAS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE STRONGEST.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. RAP SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS OF 1-
2 OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS
AND 50-100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE THE SATURATED DGZ OVERLAP.
THIS POSES AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALLS TO
DEVELOP THAT COULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY FALLING VISIBILITIES. RECENT CAM
SOLUTIONS PINPOINT AREAS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN KS
SEEING THE BEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AS THIS SEEMS TO BE WHERE THE BEST DGZ SATURATION AND LIFT
OVERLAP THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN
SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT AS THE BIGGEST
THREAT WITH SNOW WILL BE RAPIDLY CHANGING AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. FLASH FREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR FLASH FREEZES TO OCCUR WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE EVENING AND CLOSER TO THE KS/NE BORDER. CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN KS THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT
WARMING MUCH, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SURFACE RIDGING
PUSHES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING HELPING TO
PLUMMET SUNDAY AM TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS SHIFT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND HELP TO
PROVIDE A BRIEF WARM UP. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PLUMMET MONDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS
ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL SEE SIMILAR SYSTEMS ROLL THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL US. THAT SAID, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL A LATE WEEK SYSTEM USHERS
IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND RETURNS SOME LOW-END POPS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MAIN AVIATION HAZARDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTING UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH) AND AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES RATHER
QUICKLY. KEPT PRECIPITATION MENTION AT A PROB30 AS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED AND BRIEF IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS EAST AT KTOP AND
KFOE, BUT A FEW MAY IMPACT KMHK THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS
PAIRED WITH A BRIEF HEAVY BURST OF SNOW COULD QUICKLY PLUMMET
VISIBILITIES, POSSIBLY TO NEAR WHITE-OUT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF KTOP AND KFOE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OPTED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF LLWS FRIDAY EVENING AS THE BL
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY MIXED WITH WINDS INCREASING UNIFORMALLY WITH
HEIGHT. THIS LEAD TO BELIEVE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING WOULD
BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVER LLWS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU JAN 16 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY AIR REMAIN COMMON OVER THE REGION.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-25
MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH WILL DEVELOP AFTER 9 AM AS
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT. DIURNAL
MIXING UP TO 850MB WILL HELP TO MIX OUT THE BL A BIT, BUT NOT
EXPECTED RH VALUES TO DROP MUCH BELOW 35 PERCENT AS CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FIRE CONCERNS, BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
MORNING BEFORE MOISTURE MOVES IN.
BY SATURDAY, DRY AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS AS FIRES MAY EXHIBIT ERRATIC BEHAVIOR GIVEN AMPLE
AND DRY FUELS. ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY DAY RETURNS SUNDAY AND
AGAIN WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A WIND SHIFT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL REINFORCE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY, BUT THANKFULLY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON SO FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
FIRE WEATHER...GRIESEMER
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