114
FXUS63 KTOP 082323
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-LOW (10-15%) CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
-HEAT BUILDS TOMORROW WHEN HIGHS COULD EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
-VERY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-BETTER STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG A THETA-E AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS
CLIP FAR NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. LOW (10-15%) CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN STORMS DEVELOPING GIVEN A CAPPED AIR MASS
AND OVERALL WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER, A STRONGER LLJ SETS UP TONIGHT AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. IF ANYTHING COME OVERCOME THE
LOW LEVEL CIN, STRONG WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE BUILDING HEAT. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WARM TO
NEAR 30C AND THE SOUTHWESTERN H5 RIDGE EXPANDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S -- THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. LUCKILY, BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD
MIX DOWN LOWER TD'S DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL, HEAT INDEX VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 102 TO 106 DEGREES. HAVE CONTINUED
TO HOLD OFF ON HEAT HEADLINES WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE, BUT STEPS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE
HEAT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK
SHORTWAVES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHARY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THOSE TO IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH OF
HERE. OUR ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED GIVEN THE VERY WARM
H85 AND H7 TEMPERATURES AND SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.
A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE
FLATTENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. LONG RANGE MODELS, HOWEVER, DIFFER ON
THE STRENGTH OF STORM SYSTEMS BOTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. MOST MODELS SHOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IS
POPS. NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS THE HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR BEING THE MAIN HAZARD AT KTOP AND KFOE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING AND IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS LOW
SO KEPT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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