115  
FXUS63 KTOP 250432 AAA  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1132 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
20Z WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS AN MCV LIFTING NORTH ACROSS  
NORTHEAST KS. THIS HAS SPARKED A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AN OLD  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE STORMS  
WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH INTO NEB. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER  
NORTHERN WY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO NM.  
 
THE EXPECTATION FOR TONIGHT IS THERE TO BE A PAUSE IN STORMS ONCE  
THE LINE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE  
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB TO  
SOUTHWEST KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MODEST SO STORM MODE IF EXPECTED TO BE MULTI  
CELLULAR WITH A HAIL AND WINDS RISK. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH  
PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS  
IS. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL PROGRESS  
OVERNIGHT. CAMS ARE SHOWING STORMS REMAINING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH  
CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE FORCING TO PUSH STORMS EAST AS THE PATTERN  
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS  
EASTERN KS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE  
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH LOWER  
60S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST.  
 
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MERIDIONAL PATTERN  
PERSISTING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP  
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK  
PERTURBATIONS LIFT NORTH. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT LESS INSTABILITY  
DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM AND CLOUDS  
LIMITING INSOLATION. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER COULD  
DEVELOP. AREAS IN FAR EAST CENTRAL KS (ANDERSON CO) WILL BE THE AREA  
MOST AT RISK SINCE CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE THAT FAR EAST AND  
THERE COULD BE BETTER DESTABILIZATION. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH  
CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART.  
PRECIP SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS PROMINENT.  
A NORTHWEST WIND BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD LOWER TEMPS INTO  
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO  
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. AS LONG AS THIS FEATURE PERSISTS, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALTHOUGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS  
LIMITED SINCE WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH LITTLE  
CHANCE FOR DEEP MOISTURE RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. BY THE WEEKEND,  
MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING WITH THE CLOSED LOW EITHER BEING  
REABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES OF DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE  
RIO GRAND VALLEY. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS  
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, CONFIDENCE IS BLOW AVERAGE. BUT IT  
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE DRYING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK OR  
BY THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
COMPLEX OF T-STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME OVERNIGHT  
SO WILL REDUCE VIS CONDS WITH THE T-STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW  
IN HOW FAR EAST THE MAIN AREA OF T-STORMS WILL GET/WORST VIS  
CONDS. PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW IS TRYING TO TIME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
AND T-STORMS WHICH IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DO AT THIS TIME SO WILL  
LEAVE VCTS AS IS.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-  
026-034>039-054.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS  
LONG TERM...WOLTERS  
AVIATION...OMITT  
 
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