884
FXUS63 KTOP 111710
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THE REST OF THIS WEEK, LOOKING TO BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35.
- THERE MAYBE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST HUDSON BAY, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WAS NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL
TX.
THE 6Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES, WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL LA, SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE TX GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO THE TX PNHDL.
LIGHT WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS HAS PASSED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRACK EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE SOUTHERN
STREAM H5 TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. AN H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA,
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH TX, NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND LOW-
LEVEL WAA, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 6Z WED. AS THE H5 TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST, LOW-
LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. RESIDUAL GULF MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING TO
STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL CAUSE THE
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE, WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-35. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL (ESPECIALLY ANY ROTATING UPDRAFT,
GIVEN 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF
THE CAP BREAKS THESE STORMS WILL BACK BUILD ALONG THE FRONT FROM
CENTRAL MO INTO EAST CENTRAL KS, SOUTHEAST OF I-35, DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF THE FRONT MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST FASTER THAN WHAT MOST MOST NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST, THEN
THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING
HOURS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS
BY 6Z THURSDAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE H5
RIDGE WILL DAMPENING DOWN AS H5 TROUGHS ROUND THE HR RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK, AND AS
PERTURBATIONS PASS EAST ACROSS THE PLANS , THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BUT THE MAIN H5
TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BACK INTO THE MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING. WIND
DIRECTION MAY VARY SLIGHTLY, BUT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD DOMINATE
WITH LITTLE SPEED CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THIS
FORECAST. HAVE KEPT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A
SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AROUND 10Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 15
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1944) 92
CONCORDIA 91 (1944, 2012) 90
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 15
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 71 (1977) 68
CONCORDIA 69 (1962) 67
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 16
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1931) 90
CONCORDIA 93 (2019) 89
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...POAGE
CLIMATE...DRAKE/GARGAN
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