989
FXUS63 KTOP 241910
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
210 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH
THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE MOST CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAY.
- RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- A STRONG COLD FRONT INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
- COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP
AGAIN TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS RETURNED TODAY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 18-22 DEGREES C. WITH GOOD MIXING,
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORD VALUES AT CNK AND TOP. VERY DRY AIR
AND ELEVATED WINDS ALONG WITH THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL BY LATE MORNING, PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL AND FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST POST-FRONTAL. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY STILL REVOLVES AROUND
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BACK NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHILE AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH INTO THE 80S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND THE WIND
SHIFT MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAY.
THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
BEST CHANCES (50-80%) ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A WINDOW FOR DEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SATURATION AND WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT
THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY IMPACTFUL
AMOUNTS IS LOW, EVEN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE NBM HAS A
30-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.1" AND A 15-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
0.25". COOLER AIR SPILLS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALSO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-12KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS BETWEEN 09-14Z WED, BUT A GRADUAL CHANGE IN WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT FAVORS LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER WIND SHEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND ELEVATED WINDS
WILL LIKELY CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS
TO 15-20% ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HIAWATHA TO CHAPMAN WITH
HIGHER VALUES OF 25-35% FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE LACK OF OVERLAP WITH
THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGER GUSTS, WILL HOLD OFF ON A
RED FLAG WARNING, BUT STILL EXPECT VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAY AS
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING, PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH BACK NEAR 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEFORE FALLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
STILL REVOLVE AROUND EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND/OR
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL AS FAST POST-FRONTAL, THE OVERLAP OF STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (LESS THAN 30%) IS MORE LIKELY. IF
THE FRONT IS FASTER AND/OR TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER AFTER IT PASSES,
THE AREA AND TIME WINDOW FOR STRONG WINDS TO OVERLAP WITH LOW RH
WILL BE MORE LIMITED. FIRE PARTNERS REPORT RECENT FIRES HAVE BEEN
INTENSE AND HAVE SPREAD RAPIDLY EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS, SO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND THE ANTICIPATED WIND SHIFT COULD
SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING EVEN IF CRITERIA ISN'T MET.
EVEN WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH RH OF 15-30% FORECAST BOTH AFTERNOONS.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST AT 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 25
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 91 (1907) 90
CONCORDIA 92 (1907) 93
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 26
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 85 (1910, 1991) 92
CONCORDIA 86 (1907) 85
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN
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