896
FXUS63 KTOP 181042
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
542 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND RETURN TO
ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID-WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
OTHERWISE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WE FIND OURSELVES IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER FLOW AS BROAD RIDGING
COVERS THE SOUTHERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR A WEAK LOW NEAR THE GREAT BASIN
REGION, WHILE THE MAIN WESTERLIES ARE ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER. A
LEE SFC TROUGH HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK UPPER
LOW, RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT DROPPING AS QUICKLY TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT, AND MANY LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE
LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY
GET A LITTLE COOLER, BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A CONCERN
FOR FROST THIS MORNING. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
AREA, HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S (ABOUT
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEAKENS AND EJECTS SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OVER OUR AREA EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE ONLY LIKELY
IMPACT WE SEE FROM THIS IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING HIGHS TO THE 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OUR WARMTH PEAKS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, THANKS TO A TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. BY THIS TIME, HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S, WHICH IS FIRMLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-OCTOBER.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE MEDIUM-
RANGE PATTERN, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS DRY AND WARM
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK, AT WHICH POINT SOME
DIFFERENCES CAN BE SEEN IN THE SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION. RAIN HAS TRENDED
LATER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, WITH LOW CHANCES NOW COMING ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONTINUES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS PERIOD INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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