019
FXUS63 KTOP 182322
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY
- HEATING UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID SUMMER DAY HAS EVOLVED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100
DEGREES. WHILE FORCING IS LACKING, AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED TO THIS POINT. NONETHELESS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FROM CAMS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. A LACK OF FORCING AND
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN OF
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS, AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXTENDING INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER, THE NBM HAS TRENDED
A FEW DEGREES LOWER FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98-102
DEGREES SUNDAY AND 100-106 DEGREES MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE
DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE DRY.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE COOLER, DRIER POST-
FRONTAL AIR IS VARIED AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SHOWN BY A 5-8
DEGREE SPREAD IN THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES BEING COOLER THAN MONDAY, BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH COOLER
REMAINS IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING AND LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE
COOLER AIRMASS DOES SPILL INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK; HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE FLATTENED
FLOW LEADS TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (30-55%) COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
STILL VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER MAINLY HANGING AROUND
THE KTOP/KFOE TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z BUT COULD LINGER SLIGHTLY
LONGER. SHOWERS AROUND THE KMHK TERMINAL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH BUT
STILL HAVE PROB30 MENTION THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT A SIMILAR
SETUP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM
THE SE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOWS FROM SHOWERS OR
STORMS. NOT ADDING A PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME FOR NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD BUT WILL MONITOR FOR THE 06Z FORECAST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE
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