128
FXUS63 KTOP 021924
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
224 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2023
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THIS EVENING, IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING
WAVE AND COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CARRIES WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE MIDWEST. THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING A MOISTURE PLUME COMING OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SPREADING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME, HIGHS
TODAY ARE NEAR THE RECORD ONE FINAL DAY WITH FORECAST READINGS IN
THE LOW 90S (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES WHILE MIN RH VALUES FALL BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE HIGH
FIRE DANGER MENTION FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, SOUTH WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WAA
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING, HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. WITHIN THE HEATING OF THE DAY,
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 35-45 KTS. DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK, MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL FORM TO
THE WEST NEAR THE FRONT BEFORE QUICKLY TRACKING AT 40-50 MPH TO
THE EAST/ NORTHEAST. INITIAL STORM MODE MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO A LINE OF
STORMS ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AFTER 3 PM. AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS REGION WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
INITIAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO, HOWEVER PROBS FOR THIS
OCCURRING ARE LOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS STORMS
MOVE AWAY FROM THE OPTIMAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS GRADUALLY CLEAR THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ADVECTS MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
THIS TIME, BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE MINIMAL GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, TEMPS IN THE 60S ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE
30S. PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY
IN LOW LYING AREAS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2023
VFR AT TERMINALS AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKEN AFT 00Z THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 8-10 KFT
INCREASE BETWEEN 08-12Z FROM THE WEST WHILE SOUTH WINDS BECOME
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 25 KTS AFT 12-14Z TIME FRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED SHRA IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KMHK, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2023
RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KANSAS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A WASHINGTON TO ABILENE LINE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERS TO NEAR 40 PERCENT BY 8 PM.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2023
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FORECAST RECORD (YEAR)
MONDAY (10/02)
TOPEKA 92 95 (1963)
CONCORDIA 93 95 (1938)
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...53/22
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER/53
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