269
FXUS63 KTOP 041004
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS
NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS, THEN SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S AND LIGHT WINDS.
- A DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS TRENDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY MIDWEEK
AND NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
EARLY-MORNING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOW A CLASSIC
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SHALLOW FOG AND MIST HAVE
DEVELOPED IN SOME VALLEYS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS, PARTICULARLY WHERE
SOILS REMAIN MOIST FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS ARE CALM.
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH, INDICATIVE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORT RAPID EROSION OF ANY FOG SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE AS MIXING INCREASES. ONCE FOG CLEARS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS, RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW EARLY OCTOBER NORMALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE MORNING, VEERING MORE
EASTERLY OR VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S, SO THE AIR
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND CONTINUED DRY AIR WILL AGAIN
FAVOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AREA-WIDE, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN
TRADITIONAL COLD POCKETS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS ALONG THE KANSAS AND REPUBLICAN RIVERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO LOW-LYING
AREAS.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURES
A STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SLIDES EAST, ALLOWING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
DEVELOP IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS KANSAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED LIFT OR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO AND ANY
CLOUD COVER WILL BE TIED MAINLY TO PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OR WEAK WARM
ADVECTION LAYERS.
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHOW ABOVE-NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE EITHER OVERHEAD OR ONLY SLIGHTLY FLATTENED BY
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING WELL NORTH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SOMEWHAT, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
FOR MANY LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH PERHAPS MID 80S IN PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS IF MIXING IS EFFICIENT. DEW POINTS
RISE INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S BUT REMAIN INSUFFICIENT, IN THE ABSENCE
OF STRONGER FORCING, TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED, LOW-PROBABILITY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ANY WEAK BOUNDARIES. CURRENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER ASCENT REMAIN
FOCUSED WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY, VERY LOW-
LYING FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND OCCASIONALLY IS
REGISTERED ON OBSERVATIONS, BUT LIKELY NOT LEADING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE THE FIRST SEVERAL FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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