643
FXUS63 KTOP 091104
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS.
- MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES, ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WHILE THE INCOMING SOUTHWEST TROUGH
AXIS IS ROTATING THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. REMNANT
LOW STRATUS IS OBSERVED RETREATING SOUTHEAST AS DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS FILTERS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE SFC
NORTHWEST WINDS WANE BY SUNRISE INTO FRIDAY, THE LOW STRATUS
HOLDS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD AGAIN
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN TERMS OF SNOW CHANCES THIS EVENING, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS ENTERING NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, SPREADING EASTWARD AND
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO
MISSOURI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HREF MEMBERS ALONG WITH THE
NAM 3KM AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING BAND OF
850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SOMEWHAT NARROW CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM THE FLINT HILLS REGION TOWARDS THE MANHATTAN AND
TOPEKA AREAS. WHILE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE DGZ BY
EARLY EVENING, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY
SFC TEMPS FALL TO THE LOW/MID 30S, ALLOWING ANY NOTABLE SNOWFALL
TO ACCUMULATE IN A 2-3 HOUR TIME PERIOD. AND WHILE MUCH OF THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD MELT GIVEN THE WARMER GROUND TEMPS, SHORT-TERM
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AS LIGHT-MODERATE SNOWFALL COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN THE EVENING. IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS,
THE LATEST HRRR, NAMNEST, AND WRF MEMBERS, IN ADDITION TO THE EC
AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY IN SNOW
AMOUNTS, LIKELY HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR NARROW SNOW
BANDING. OVERALL CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED
INCREASING QPF BY A FEW HUNDREDTHS, THEREFORE INCREASING TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM A TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 1 INCH, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLINT HILLS
REGION WHERE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS PERSIST LONGER. FORTUNATELY,
BLOWING SNOW IS NOT A CONCERN AS NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY STAY
BELOW 10 MPH DURING THIS PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY AS UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGHS RETURN TO THE 50S NEXT WEEK
UNTIL THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MVFR STRATUS HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST OF KTOP/KFOE WHILE
ADDITIONAL STRATUS ATTEMPTS TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER.
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS, I ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR STRATUS SOUTH OF
SITES BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST, ARRIVING AT KMHK NEAR 23Z.
HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIP AT ALL TERMINALS, LENDING TO
KEEPING THE PROB30 AT KTOP/KFOE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFT 01Z.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS REMAINS AT KMHK WITH THE
PREVAILING -RA SWITCHING TO -SN FROM 23Z-03Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO VFR AFTER THE PRECIPITATION PASSES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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