086
FXUS63 KTOP 221104
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
604 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS ARE EXPECTED (60-90% CHANCE) TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES (60-80%) COME SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PUMPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL IT MIXES OUT FOR MOST AREAS
AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM THIS MORNING
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER, BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS BUILDS BACK IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS A POTENT CLOSED LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING, BUT A STOUT
EML IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL FORCING
PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON (3-5 PM) FROM A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE
AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY BY THIS
TIME, BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE INITIAL STORMS BEFORE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMES THE PRIMARY HAZARD ONCE A LINE OF STORMS
FORMS. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET THURSDAY EVENING DOES LEAD TO
MORE CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH, SUPPORTING SOME
MESOVORTICIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. 0-3KM
SHEAR VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 30KTS,
SO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE
FOR ANY SPIN-UP TORNADOES. STORMS EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. FRIDAY
LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY BEHIND THURSDAY'S SYSTEM, BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN A
STRONGER WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
HOLD NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY WHEN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVERNIGHT. MVFR
STRATUS BUILDS BACK IN LATE IN THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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