526
FXUS63 KTOP 071124
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN (70-90% CHANCE) IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A HALF OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.
- THE CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE
INCREASED TO BETWEEN 40-50%. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
- AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM MINNEAPOLIS GROVE TO HOLTON HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE (40-60%) OF SEEING TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AN INCH OR TWO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST MEXICAN COAST. AN
UPPER TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
ZONAL UPPER AND MID LEVEL FLOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TODAY:
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW
WILL MOVE ON SHORE ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO, THEN GET KICKED
NORTHEAST BY THE UPSTREAM H5 TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE H5 TROUGH AND WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NM. A DOWN STREAM H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CAUSE A LEE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO/FAR EASTERN NM. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL WAA. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. NORTH CENTRAL
KS AND AREAS ALONG THE NE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE SHORT AND LONG RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SOUTHERN NM H5 TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TX INTO
EASTERN KS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF WEST TX, RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN KS AFTER 6Z THU. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL CAUSE A STEADY LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE CWA. AS THE H5 TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO
EASTERN KS, DCVA AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT
PROVIDING MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. SEVERAL SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW
MUCAPE INCREASING TO 100 TO 500 J/KG, SO THERE MAY BE A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST QPF WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH MUCH OF THE CWA RECEIVING
0.6" UP TO 0.8" OF QPF. THE TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD, SO NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED, PLUS THE GROUND IS VERY
DRY FROM THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. THE H5
TROUGH ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 6Z FRI. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY
EVENING. A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
40S. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF
THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS OK/KS AND THE H5 TROUGH FILLING A BIT AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OK AND KS FRIDAY NIGHT. A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW THE BEST 850MB-600MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
QUICK WILL THE COLDER AIR ADVECTION OCCUR FOR THE RAIN-SNOW MIX
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
IF DRIER AIR CAN ADVECT FASTER SOUTHWARD, THEN A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW MAY OCCUR EARLIER IN THE EVENING DUE TO WEB-BULB
COOLING. DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH QPF. THE COLDER AIR MAY
TAKE LONGER TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KS
WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR.
DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE H5 TROUGH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FROM THE LREF FOR 1" OR MORE OF SNOW EXTENDS FROM
MCPHERSON TO MHK AND RANGES FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA HAVE DROPPED TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT OF RECEIVING 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL. THE PROBABILITIES
OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW DROP TO UNDER 5 PERCENT SOUTHEAST OF I-35.
ITS TARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE LIMITED WITH A DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOULD END SATURDAY MORNING. THE H5 TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
AND PHASE WITH A DEEPER H5 TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE PHASED H5 TROUGHS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
EAST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN US COAST BY MONDAY. THE NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BIG PATTERN SHIFT WITH A H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN AK.
THIS MAY CAUSE ARCTIC AIR IN NORTHERN CANADA TO ADVECT
SOUTHWARD AS H5 TROUGHS DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, HIGHS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE MAY BE CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD NOT REACH THE TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
JANUARY 7TH
RECORD HIGH FORECAST HIGH
TOPEKA 68 (1965) 64
CONCORDIA 63 (2006) 61
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
CLIMATE...WOLTERS
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