186
FXUS63 KTOP 291041
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-45% CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER THURSDAY.
- THIS STRETCH OF COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITH US INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- LOWS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS COULD FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. ONE WAVE WAS
SEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGGING
SOUTH TOWARDS MT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEB
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX AND AR.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING. THIS COULD BRING A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP TO PARTS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
PRETTY LIMITED BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO ALLOW OCCASIONAL SURFACE
RIDGES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE LOWS FLIRT
WITH THE FREEZING MARK. THE FORECAST HAS SOME MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. SO
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FROST EACH OF THOSE MORNING.
SPREAD IN THE MODELS INCREASES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND
A SECOND UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN HEIGHT
RISES AND WARMER TEMPS THANKS TO THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM AND NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
NORTHEAST SYSTEM. WITH NOT MUCH DIRECTION FROM THE ENSEMBLES, THE
FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE NBM MEAN. PRECIP CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO
BE DRIVEN BY MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES AND WHETHER THERE IS A LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW OR A DRYER NORTHWEST FLOW. GIVEN THE SPREADS, POPS
REMAIN LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE RAP AND NAM APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AS
THEY WOULD HAVE MVFR CIGS OVER THE TERMINALS NOW. WILL FOLLOW THE
HRRR AND RRFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SEEM TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVELS
BETTER BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. SURFACE RIDGING OVER
NORTHWEST KS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE DAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ020-
KSZ021-KSZ034.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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