764  
FXUS63 KTOP 110532  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE (30%) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY  
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
WEAKEN AS THEY ENTER THE AREA, BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG  
WIND GUSTS.  
 
- A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE  
FOR STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.  
 
- COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, BUT NEAR-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
NORTHEAST KANSAS RESIDES BETWEEN THIS MORNING'S SHORTWAVE AND  
ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CREATING  
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE ROCKIES WAVE  
ADVANCES EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SPARKING CONVECTION ALONG  
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER MID-LEVEL FORCING  
ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INCREASING  
INHIBITION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING OF  
CONVECTION WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THUS, HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER ARE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW  
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS IF ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS MORE  
ORGANIZED AS IT ENTERS THE AREA.  
 
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AS THE EML ERODES. THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY BY THE  
AFTERNOON REMAINS VARIED AMONG GUIDANCE, BUT IS FAVORED TO RESIDE  
SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT  
2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE  
RATHER WEAK. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS ALSO LACKING WITH ONLY A COUPLE  
OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. WEAK LIFT FROM A PASSING WAVE  
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON (3-5 PM FOR INITIAL  
STORM DEVELOPMENT) AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS  
AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE WEAK SHEAR AND  
LIFT WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER, INVERTED-V  
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS AS WELL,  
BUT THERE ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION AND  
ANY FLOODING ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALIZED IN NATURE.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY BEFORE  
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. COOLER AIR IS  
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW  
RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK NEAR NORMAL INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL PASSING WAVES KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THE NEXT  
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS  
A MORE POTENT PERTURBATION AND STRONGER FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF KMHK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO KTOP/KFOE.  
HERE, BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE  
EVENING HOURS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER FROM SOUTH  
TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST  
BEHIND IT.  
 
 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN  
AVIATION...REESE  
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