668
FXUS63 KTOP 241920
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH CHANCES SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND LOWS AROUND 60.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SPLIT FLOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH AMERICA PER THE 19Z WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAS WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHERE A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WERE NOTED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE HUDSON
BAY. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WAS NOTED OVER THE CA BAJA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS LEFT A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A REMNANT MCV SPINNING OVER NORTH TX. SURFACE OBS
SHOWED WEAK RIDGING INTO EASTERN KS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN A RELATIVE MOIST AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY BE MIXING OUT A LITTLE
MORE. THIS COULD ALLOW FROM SOME WEAK INHIBITION TO PERSIST THROUGH
PEAK HEATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. MUCH OF THE CAM OUTPUT SHOWS
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
STRUGGLE TO HOLD THEM TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO REPUBLIC
OR CLOUD COUNTIES. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN CASE SOMETHING
MANAGES TO MOVE INTO THESE COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE A WIND RISK WITH
ANY STORM GIVEN SOMEWHAT DRY LOW LEVELS, BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM COULD HELP A MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT PRODUCE SOME
HAIL. OVERALL THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE LOW. BY 02Z OR 03Z, A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING CIN SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE STORM CHANCES. LOWS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER
60S OUT WEST. THESE COOLER TEMPS AND WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG LOOK
LESS THAN FAVORABLE WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS AND ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PREVENT CALM WINDS.
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND LOW SPREADS IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA. THIS LEADS TO BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW RELATIVE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WHILE HIGHS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE PATTERN IS ONE WE TYPICALLY SEE MORE IN
THE LATE JULY AND AUGUST TIME FRAME WITH A MUDDLED RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. MODELS FORECAST A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH REASONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE WITHIN THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP CHANCES WHERE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE
AIRMASS AND PRECIP DEVELOPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME
FRAME, AND THIS IS WHAT THE NBM SHOWS. THE ONE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR THE MCV OVER NORTH TX TO LIFT
NORTH ALONG THE KS/MO STATE LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NBM HAD
BACKED OFF ON POPS LOWERING THEM TO AROUND 5 PERCENT. BUT THIS
PATTERN ARGUES FOR POPS MORE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS, AND DON'T SEE ANY REASON TO CHANGE
THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE NBM.
SPREAD STARTS TO INCREASE IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND AS DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND START TO SHOW UP. THE MAIN IMPLICATION FOR THE FORECAST IS
WHETHER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN AS THE GFS SHOWS OR IF
WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS THE ECMWF SHOWS. THE BLEND SEEMS
TO MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 80S. BUT THE HEDGE IS THE PRECIP CHANCES IN GENERAL
ARE LOWER. ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREADS BETWEEN THE TWENTY FIFTH AND
SEVENTY FIFTH PERCENTILES OF 10 DEGREES OR MORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SO
WITH THE NBM BEING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FORECAST, ADJUSTMENTS ARE
LIKELY ONCE A COMMON SOLUTION BECOMES APPARENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD DECOUPLE
ENOUGH FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP AT TOP AND POSSIBLY FOE. A
LITTLE MORE MIXING AT MHK SHOULD LOWER THE PROBABILITY FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS BEST FOR SOME FOG AT TOP AND WILL
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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