222
FXUS63 KTOP 130748
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
248 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH COMBINED WITH
FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND CHILLS COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW HAD SET UP FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PER THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
WAS PROPAGATING EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MN/WI WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH CENTRAL KS. SURFACE OBS SHOWED MUSH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINED CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND EVEN THEN THE RICHER
DEWPOINT TEMPS HAD BEEN SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
ALLOWED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS SHOW WEAK
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED. STRONGER
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS BY
SATURDAY EVENING. BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, A PRETTY
STRONG EML IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KS TOO. SO LIMITED
MOISTURE TODAY AND A CAP OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER IN PLACE.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF AN OPEN WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE KS STATE LINE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW
FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW CAUSES NORTHERLY WINDS TO EASILY
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POTENTIALLY FLIRT WITH HIGH WINDS.
BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PROGS, USED SOME THE
THE NBM TWENTY FIFTH PERCENTILE IN THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW
TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A LITTLE SHAPER THAN THE MEAN
NBM. SO TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PRECIP ARE WE GOING TO
GET. THE NAM AND ECMWF TEND TO SHOW LOWER QPF TOTALS BECAUSE THEY
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE MID LEVELS INITIALLY. BUT THE GFS HAS NO
DIFFICULTIES IN SATURATING THE COLUMN. ADDITIONALLY THE GFS SHOWS A
GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND WITH
STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN A DEEPENING DGZ. THE NBM MEAN SNOW
AMOUNTS FOR THE STORM ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE 00Z ENSEMBLES AND QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER THE NBM DOES SHOW THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KS AT AROUND 25 PERCENT.
THESE PROBS DROP OFF AS ONE MOVES WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS. SO
WHILE THE GFS IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST SOLUTIONS FOR QPF AND SNOW, I
DON'T THINK IT CAN BE COMPLETELY DISMISSED. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIND
SPEEDS WITH THE SYSTEM, SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE SECONDARY TO THE IMPACTS
OF THE WIND AND FALLING SNOW RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES. I ANTICIPATE
WE WILL NEED SOME HEADLINES EVENTUALLY FOR THE WIND AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW.
A WEAK CLIPPER WAVE IS NOTED IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS DIVING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED SO CHANCES FOR MAJOR IMPACTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY LOW.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-WEEK AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE HYBRID
GEFS AND AIGEFS. SO IT LOOKS LIKE NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND END WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
DRY AIR MOVING IN AND LIMITED FORCING SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY A WIND FORECAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THROUGH MIDDAY
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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