407
FXUS63 KTOP 191130
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, BUT QUICKLY
WARMING THROUGH THE DAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY AND MONDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S, WITH SOME LOCALES APPROACHING THE
FREEZING MARK. LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST
THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
AND BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING LOCAL CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH AS IT EJECTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL
RESIDE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR
THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER SPACE COULD BE CONDUCIVE
TO SEVERE WEATHER, AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC, CIPS ANALOGS, AND THE CSU
MACHINE LEARNING PRODUCTS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH A COOLER,
MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MIFG AT KTOP THIS MORNING COULD REDUCE BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BECOMING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SWITCH TO THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND
MONDAY DUE TO SLOW GREEN-UP AND DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS (5-15
MPH) ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WEAK WINDS WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. MONDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE
CONCERNING GIVEN SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LACK OF GREEN-UP FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY
81 CORRIDOR KEEPS FUELS RECEPTIVE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD, SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA FOR ANY POTENTIAL FIRE HEADLINES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FLANAGAN
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