430
FXUS63 KTOP 202340
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHEAST KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TAP FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM 2 BELOW TO 12 BELOW
ZERO AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 10 TO 20 BELOW,
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURS ON TUESDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL ENERGY AS WELL
AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER
AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH,
MAINLY A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS DIP DOWN INTO
THE TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ENSEMBLES ARE LEANING TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S..
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME MINOR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS EARLY IN THIS FORECAST AS THE LAST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BY 18Z AS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY 22Z.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 0530 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
FORECAST AND RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY, JANUARY 21
FORECAST RECORD
TOPEKA: -6 -11 IN 1888
CONCORDIA: -8 -17 IN 1888
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...POAGE
CLIMATE...TEEFEY/53
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