342
FXUS63 KTOP 231923
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
123 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (40-60%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SMALLER CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
SURFACE PRESSURES DROP AROUND 30 MB FROM THIS MORNING TO TUESDAY
MORNING AS WARM-AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ON A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
TONIGHT. WITH SOME INCREASING CIRRUS, WARMING OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY WITH AFTERNOON VALUES BACK INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY EARLY-DAY
WINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IN MODEST WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY. A
FAST-MOVING UPPER WAVE BRINGS MODERATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET WEDNESDAY TO DAWN THURSDAY. IF
PRECIP HOLDS ON LONG ENOUGH INTO THE NIGHT, SOME BRIEF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT THIS EVENT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR OVER 0.25" PER
LATEST NBM. SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PUSHES FRIDAY TEMPS TO
AROUND 70 WITH MODEL TEMP SPREADS STILL FAIRLY SMALL AT THAT
RANGE. THESE SPREADS INCREASE SHARPLY THIS WEEKEND IN HANDLING
OF COLD AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST FROM AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE US/CAN BORDER, BUT COOLER, MORE TOWARD-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
UPPER WAVES OR ISENTROPIC LIFT TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
DURING THESE PERIODS, WITH TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORTING RAIN
TO SNOW, BUT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FALLING ON ANY
SPECIFIC PERIOD IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
A DRY LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE KEEPS THE VFR FORECASTS
GOING. MODELS TRENDING FOR A STRONGER AND MORE VEERED LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING AROUND 05Z SO HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL IT WILL BE MORE TOWARD
TURBULENCE THAN TRUE WIND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AT
TIMES BEFORE 13Z BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT AFTER 14Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CONCERNING THIS WEEK, BUT
SOME PERIODS WITH THE "VERY HIGH" LEVEL OF THE RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX (LEVEL 4 OF 5) COULD MATERIALIZE. FOR TUESDAY,
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN SIDING WITH A WARMER AND
DRIER FORECAST, RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALL INTO THE 20- 30%
RANGE WHILE THE WINDS SUBSIDE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MORE
EXTREME CONDITIONS, WHICH LOOK FAIRLY BRIEF, LOOKS TO OCCUR IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT
GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH RHS AGAIN FALLING IN THE 20S, THOUGH THIS FAR
OUT, DETAILS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
FIRE WEATHER...POAGE
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