232
FXUS63 KTOP 230445
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1045 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT FOG TO FORM ACROSS AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG I-35 AND SOUTHEAST
AND EAST INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AREAS WHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE 60-80% OF LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
CHRISTMAS DAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO BREAK
LOCAL AREA RECORDS.
- A COLD FRONT SATURDAY USHERS IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE CLEARED WITH STRATUS PUSHING EAST INTO MO
AND CONTINUING TO MIX OUT. A LEE TROUGH / WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SET TO PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDED FROM COAST-
TO-COAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
(PLUME OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE) DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA
WHICH IS WHERE MOST OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FAVORED. ALL
OF THIS SETS UP AN EVENING WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SET OF INGREDIENTS IS THE
CONCERN FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THICKEN INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS WHERE
60-80% CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED WILL BE THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST THEN INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS.
AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THESE APPEAR TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEEP DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP WITH SHALLOW LOWER LEVEL MOIST PROFILES
SUGGESTS MORE SHALLOW FOG SET UP WHICH MAY NOT ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO FORM. HOWEVER, THE NAM (WHICH HAS THE TYPICAL MOIST
BIAS) STILL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AREA-WIDE. THE
MESSAGING FOR NOW WILL BE TO EXPECT FOG AND POSSIBLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
SLOW BURN-OFF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION IN PLACE. IF
NECESSARY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED ONCE FORMATION TRENDS
INDICATE HOW WIDESPREAD ACTUAL FOG FORMATION WILL BECOME AGAIN MOST
LIKELY OVER EAST-CENTRAL INTO FAR EASTERN KS AREAS.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MEAN WESTERLIES SITUATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO WITH RECORD
LEVELS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY
HAVE A SLOWER WARM-UP ON CHRISTMAS EVE DUE TO A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG SETUP WITH A STRONGER INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT LOCAL
AREA TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
BREAKING PREVIOUS RECORDS WITH THE ENSEMBLE DATA OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOWING A LOW OVERALL SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES
BUT ALSO ON THE EXTREME RANGES AS WELL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
AREA TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 80 ESPECIALLY EAST-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KS AREAS BUT HAVE KEPT NEARER TO THE MEAN FOR NOW.
SPREADS WIDEN AND BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE END OF THE
CHRISTMAS INTO NEW YEARS WEEK DUE TO A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION. STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO NEW YEARS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE MIXY THUS LESS FOGGY CONCERN FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER STILL GIVE ONE PAUSE TO REMOVE BR. HAVE BACKED OFF AT THIS
POINT ON HOW LONG AND HOW LOW TO GO AND EVEN ADDED LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR GIVEN RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL INPUT. EXPECT VFR
BY 16Z BUT CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE AROUND THE END OF THIS
FORECAST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 24 HIGH TOPEKA 74 (2021) 66 42
CONCORDIA 68 (1889) 59 39
DEC 25 WARM LOW TOPEKA 50 (2019) 43 22
CONCORDIA 46 (1936) 38 20
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 72 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 63 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...POAGE
CLIMATE...DRAKE/WOLTERS
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