152
FXUS63 KTOP 290825
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
225 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND BREEZY TODAY THEN NOT FAR FROM NORMAL THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEARBY RADAR-MEASURED WINDS SHOWING
NORTHWEST WINDS SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET DEEP FROM THE SURFACE. COLD-
AIR ADVECTION HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO INCREASE MIXING DEPTHS INTO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS
REPORTED. THESE PROCESSES SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
WARMER AIR ALREADY BUILDING IN AROUND 850 MB AND LOWERING MIXING
HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD BRING SLOWLY WEAKER GUSTS FROM NEAR SUNRISE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH WINDS NOTABLY WEAKENING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
THE COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS WITH IN THE 2 TO -8 RANGE. LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT MAKE FOR WARMER FEELS-LIKE CONDITIONS.
WARM-AIR ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGS A MUCH WARMER
DAY TUESDAY DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD. A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH TEMPS DON'T CHANGE MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH GEFS AND NBM SPREADS BECOME MORE NOTABLE FOR
TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH COLDER
THURSDAY WILL BE. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LIKELY
STAYING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN
HIGH BUT NBM'S NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD MATCH THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN FAIRLY WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME VFR STRATUS LINGERS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND COULD SEE A BIT OF THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH FLURRIES IN THIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME GUSTINESS IN WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY WITH MIXING
INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS
DIMINISH AROUND 22Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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