514
FXUS63 KTOP 210354
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
- MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS AROUND OR BELOW -15
DEGREES.
- STILL WATCHING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A
LIGHT (1-3") SNOWFALL EVENT SEEMS MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, BUT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-70 OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY JUMPING FROM THE LOW 30S INTO THE UPPER 40S.
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY DESPITE A
WEAK/DISSIPATING FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THURSDAY.
THE THIRD AND MOST NOTABLE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, PUSHING AN 1050+
MB HIGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS EXPECTED WITH SUCH AN
IMPRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN SUCH A LOCATION, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
SPILL SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS BY
FRIDAY MORNING, STAYING IN THE TEENS OR COLDER THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO THROUGH MONDAY. STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-90%) THAT WIND CHILLS
WILL FALL AROUND OR BELOW -15 DEGREES, SO WILL LIKELY NEED A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND. EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND THE
OVERALL POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES, BUT REGARDLESS A FEW DAYS OF
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS COLD IS LOOKING LIKELY.
TURNING TO SNOW, FOCUS REMAINS ON AN UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A
WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SNOW AND ICE TO THE NORTH OF ITS TRACK. GIVEN
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SWATH WHERE A VERY
LIGHT/FLUFFY SNOW FALLS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR US IS WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, AND HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW FALLS ACROSS OUR
AREA. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER EOF ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FEW MAIN SOURCES OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. TWO OF THESE KEY PIECES ARE THE TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE UP A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES - ONE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA
AND THE OTHER A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA.
TO SIMPLIFY THINGS, THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLAY
THE MAIN ROLE IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
KS. IF THE NORTHERN STREAM PIECE STAYS FARTHER WEST, THIS WILL
RESULT IN BETTER PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE AND A
STRONGER AND MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. THIS WOULD TEND
TO INCREASE QPF TOTALS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS, ALLOWING FOR A
GENERALLY MODERATE (3- 6") SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE
OTHER HAND, IF THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA STAYS FARTHER
SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FASTER THAN
FORECAST, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WOULD STAY POSITIVELY TILTED AND
WEAKER. THIS WOULD SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO SNOW OVER OUR AREA.
RIGHT NOW, A MAJORITY (60%) OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS. THIS WOULD LIKELY SEE A LIGHT
(1-3") SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH TOTALS INCREASING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THIS PERHAPS TOO
LONG DISCUSSION, THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF MOVING PIECES TO THIS
SCENARIO, SO IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THE
DETAILS REALLY GET PINNED DOWN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH
TERMINALS IN THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST BRIEFLY. WINDS BACK TO THE WSW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND
THEN TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...PICHA
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