244
FXUS63 KTOP 261953
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
153 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM, DRY, AND MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER. MUCH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN WINTER WX IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WET PATTERN DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. STILL FAIRLY WARM, AS LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS PRIMARILY WESTERLY, WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD
STAYING OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW, A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BEGIN TO SHUNT A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE'LL SEE A SURGE OF SOUTHWESTERLY WAA.
THIS, COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DEEP MIXING, WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S, NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. AS
MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING'S FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION, WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY DECREASE OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN RH IS AT ITS LOWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT STILL
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER NONETHELESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOME
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT FRONTAL TIMING, BUT IN
GENERAL TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY, COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AREA-WIDE. AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, A PERIOD OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THE KEY
QUESTION THOUGH, HOW DEEP AND FAR SOUTH WILL THE COLD AIR PUSH?
RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A SIZABLE SPLIT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND
GFS (AND RELATED ENSEMBLES) ARE DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
COLD AIR. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND A
MIX OF SLEET ALONG AND EVEN SOUTH OF I-70. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS (AND THEIR RELATED ENSEMBLES) HAVE MORE
SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS, RESULTING IN A DEEPER WARM NOSE AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING. THIS WOULD
GENERALLY LIMIT THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL TO FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS WITH MOSTLY PLAIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME, BOTH SCENARIOS (OR SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLE) SEEM
EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE, THOUGH PERSONALLY I LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER
SCENARIO. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS, CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT ON AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. DETAILS WILL BE
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN TENDS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD (AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY) RAINFALL CHANCES AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT (AROUND OR BELOW 5 KTS)
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DO LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, TO AROUND
10-12 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST THUR FEB 26 2026
WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS VERY LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.
EFFICIENT WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE BY FRIDAY AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW LEADS TO WELL-MIXED BLS (UP TO 850-
750MB) BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD NOT JUST PROMOTE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA, BUT DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT
INTO THE LOW 30S - POSSIBLY LOWER. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE 15-28% RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS A 30-40 KNOT 850 JET ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT COULD
MIX DOWN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND. EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS SOME FIRE EVENTS, THE
VERY DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CURE FUELS BY THE AFTERNOON MAKING FIRES
DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS, FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE A BIT AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH, WEAKENING WINDS. WINDS WILL
STILL REMAIN GUSTY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, NOT FALLING BELOW 10 MPH
UNTIL 5-6 PM. RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO RECOVER, NOT GETTING
ABOVE 40% UNTIL 8-10 PM.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27 HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPEKA
RECORD HIGH: 76 IN 1932 FORECAST HIGH: 75
CONCORDIA
RECORD HIGH: 77 IN 2016 FORECAST HIGH: 72
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...GRIESEMER
CLIMATE...REESE
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