532  
FXUS63 KTOP 210849  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
349 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 349AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN MISSOURI MCS HAS MOVED WESTWARD  
THROUGH TOPEKA AND GARNETT AT 08Z THIS MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER  
THE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM ACROSS PARTS  
OF JEFFERSON, JACKSON, SHAWNEE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS  
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION  
THROUGH SUNRISE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER  
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
EXPECT MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES AND SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS. AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THIS  
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER  
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE OR HIGHER  
POPS GIVEN MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL AS THE  
ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT MODELS AND  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 2500 J/KG OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH  
25 TO 30 KTS OF SHEAR IS FORECAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS ALTHOUGH  
SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH THE MULTIPLE  
BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOWS PRESENT MAY SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LOW  
LEVEL HELICITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. IN  
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY  
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
AROUND TWO INCHES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO  
SEE SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.  
 
GIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND THE PLACEMENT  
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT  
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS BEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LOWER  
80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TO HIGH IN THE MID  
90S FROM GARNETT TO BURLINGTON. HAVE CONTINUES THE EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WARNING FOR COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDICES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES.  
 
TONIGHT, EXPECT AREAS OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG  
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HAZARDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE  
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
FROM MONDAY ONWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA  
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS A UPPER HIGH RIDGE REMAINS  
ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY  
BEFORE THE UPPER HIGH REGRESSES WESTWARD AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ENERGY ON THE  
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHERN KANSAS AND BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE  
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WARMING TO AROUND 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.  
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING MUCH RELIEF FROM THE  
HEAT OF THIS PAST WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
 
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST MO WILL PROBABLY  
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP  
TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING  
THE TERMINALS WILL BE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY  
EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE MFVR CONDITIONS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS  
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
KSZ058-059.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...53  
LONG TERM...53  
AVIATION...GARGAN  
 
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