575
FXUS63 KTOP 020005
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
605 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BECOMING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINOR, BUT COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WILL TURN ANY
PRECIPITATION TO ALL LIQUID BY LATE MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (60-80% CHANCE) AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (60-70%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIFT FROM THE PASSING WAVE AND INCREASED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND A WARM LAYER ALOFT, THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS COME AS A MESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND RAIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CREATED SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY LEADING TO NUMEROUS LIGHTING STRIKES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. WHILE INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED, LOW FREEZING
LEVELS AND MODEST SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARD, THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANY SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. THE MESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX
OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SNOW. AREAS ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING, BUT COULD WET-BULB CLOSE
TO FREEZING AS PRECIPITATION FALLS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THE MIX OF ICE AND SNOW COULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
MOST PART, WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE OVERALL IMPACTS. BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO ANY ICING.
DEEP SATURATION WANES THIS EVENING AS A DEEP STRATUS DECK
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITHIN THIS STRATUS DECK, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. LIFT LOOKS TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY, TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE ENTIRE AREA FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY
LATE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RISK OF ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. IT'LL BE A DREARY DAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE OR RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
THE PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF
POTENT WAVES EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FIRST COMES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME INITIAL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
MAIN WAVE COULD SPARK SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER SPACE COULD FAVOR A COUPLE STRONG
STORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT
THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EVOLVES. THE FIRST WAVE DEPARTS AND THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF DRY TIME
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE VARIES IN REGARDS TO THE INTENSITY,
TIMING, AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE, BUT THERE IS A LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH IFR AND PERIODS OF LIFR ANTICIPATED. THE LONGEST DURATION
OF -FZDZ SHOULD TAKE PLACE AT THE KMHK TERMINAL WITH A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND THUS THE
TRANSITION ZONE FOR THE COLDER AIR DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. NOT RULING OUT A PERIOD OF -FZDZ AT THE KTOP/KFOE
TERMINALS SO HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO MENTION FOR THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. LIFT IN THE LOWEST SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY
WANES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ANY -DZ ENDING AND BR
INTO THE MORNING BEFORE MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE
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