106  
FXUS63 KTOP 202331  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
531 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S, LAST NIGHT'S LIGHT SNOW  
HAS QUICKLY MELTED UNDER THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN, WITH JUST A BIT  
REMAINING IN PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES WILL  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.  
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,  
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS. AS THE  
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE  
DURING THE DAY. WITH WAA, SUNNY SKIES, AND DEEPER MIXING, AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WELL INTO THE 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE CUTOFF  
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FRIDAY'S WARMING  
TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S, AS WAA AND  
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BY SUNDAY  
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS, WITH A COMPACT SURFACE  
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES  
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN  
IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WITHIN  
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH NOT MUCH  
COLD AIR IN PLACE, MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN RAIN.  
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, A BIT OF  
WET SNOW COULD MIX IN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY AS THE  
LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BUT THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS  
OCCURRING FOR NOW.  
 
AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S SYSTEM, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN  
SPECIFIC DETAILS, BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE INITIAL CUTOFF TROUGH TO CARVE OUT  
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. WHILE ANY IMPACTS TO THE AREA  
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL  
SECONDARY SHORTWAVES, SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS  
TONIGHT INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY TO 10-15  
KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT CHANCE OF AVIATION IMPACTS COMES ON  
SUNDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...REESE  
LONG TERM...REESE  
AVIATION...SKOW  
 
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