054
FXUS63 KTOP 302306
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
506 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND TO ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED THIS CYCLE REGARDING THE CURRENT FORECAST
PATTERN IN PLACE. A DEEP TROUGH IS EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A LOW
PRESSURE REGION WEST OF THE BAJA IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS LEAVES
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN AN AREA OF RELATIVE CALM WITH A FEW CLOUDS
OVERHEAD IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS AS WELL AS WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE OVER WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
WITH THE MEAN WESTERLIES RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS INTO
CANADA, EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS WITH
ONLY A WEAK SHALLOW COLD INTRUSION OR TWO ENTERING THE AREA BRIEFLY
THROUGH THIS WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 50S WITH WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FIRST WEAK INTRUSION FOR TOMORROW
NYE. KICKING OFF THE NEW YEAR, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR INTO FRIDAY HELPING TO LIMIT THE RISE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
INTO THE WEEKEND ALL TRENDS POINT TO TOWARD TEMPERATURES WARMING
WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN PUSHING INTO THE 60S POSSIBLY BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS RISE AGAIN UNDER ANOTHER BROAD
RIDGE SETUP. FOR NOW, SPREADS WIDEN INTO MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH A POSSIBLE WEATHER MAKING TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE VERY END OF NEXT WEEK SOMETIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
WITH HIGH PRESSURE A BIT TO OUR SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...REESE
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