148  
FXUS63 KTOP 261103  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
603 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018  
 
VERY SEASONAL AND PLEASANT WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR THE NEXT 24-36  
HOURS.  
 
CURRENT WV LOOPS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS  
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHWEST  
FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. A  
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A  
COMPLEX OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WITHIN AN AREA OF  
ASCENT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.  
MEANWHILE, SURFACE COLD BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT  
LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF MODIFIED CANADIAN  
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME  
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DECREASING  
CLOUD COVERAGE AND CALM WINDS, ALONG WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE  
REGION, HAS ALLOWED FOR A VERY COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES  
DIPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
INTO THE DAY TODAY, A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE  
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH  
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA  
FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND A VERY  
PLEASANT 70 DEGREES. WEAK RETURN SETS UP INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER INTO THE UPPER 40S. A  
DRY FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A BROAD LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH  
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
 
THURSDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS DURING THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE  
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A SHORTER WAVE LENGTH UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF WEST CENTRAL CANADA AND  
AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLANS INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE A SURFACE FRONT TO RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT AND RESIDUAL  
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND  
HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER FROPA,  
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
THE FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS ON FRIDAY AND  
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR  
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
OF SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN  
THE 60S.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE  
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND  
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE STRONGER  
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A  
SECOND H5 TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA BY THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN US AND WILL EXTEND FROM TX, NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC  
STATES.  
 
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS SUNDAY MORNING WILL UNDERGO  
FRONTOLYSIS AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS AND  
RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE 60S WITH THE RICHER GULF  
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSHING  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE FIRST H5 TROUGH  
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, SO THERE  
COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY  
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018  
 
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY  
VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS. MIFG WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT THE KTOP  
TERMINAL. HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DRAKE  
LONG TERM...GARGAN  
AVIATION...DRAKE  
 
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