282
FXUS63 KTOP 120710
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
210 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
- WARM TO END THE WEEK AND THEN A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
TODAY, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP MIXING ALSO
IN PLACE, A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION. TONIGHT, A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH. THIS WILL SHIFT WIND OUT OF THE NORTH AND LEAD TO A
COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY.
A WARM-UP INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 70S SATURDAY.
A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS FAVORED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, BUT ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY FALL AND RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND HOW
QUICKLY TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING, BUT RIGHT NOW
ENSEMBLES GIVE A GOOD CHANCE (30-50%) OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
STRONG COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL
LEAD TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES GIVE A 40-50% CHANCE OF
SEEING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WIND AND THE COLD WILL LEAD TO A FRIGID NIGHT SUNDAY AND MORNING
ON MONDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO DEGREES. THANKFULLY, IT
APPEARS THIS COLD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS
ON TUESDAY AND HIGHS CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EARLY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING, TOPPING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 38 KNOTS. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET, BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND ALOFT WILL
OCCUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO LLWS OF OVER 50 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST,
AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KS FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 18-22% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE HUMIDITY IN 25 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
THIS AREA WILL STILL HAVE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH
BUT WIND WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING).
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
FIRE WEATHER...JONES
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