106
FXUS63 KTOP 202331
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S, LAST NIGHT'S LIGHT SNOW
HAS QUICKLY MELTED UNDER THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN, WITH JUST A BIT
REMAINING IN PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY. WITH WAA, SUNNY SKIES, AND DEEPER MIXING, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WELL INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE CUTOFF
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FRIDAY'S WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S, AS WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BY SUNDAY
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS, WITH A COMPACT SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN
IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION, WITHIN
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH NOT MUCH
COLD AIR IN PLACE, MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN RAIN.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, A BIT OF
WET SNOW COULD MIX IN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BUT THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING FOR NOW.
AFTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S SYSTEM, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
SPECIFIC DETAILS, BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE INITIAL CUTOFF TROUGH TO CARVE OUT
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. WHILE ANY IMPACTS TO THE AREA
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL
SECONDARY SHORTWAVES, SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY TO 10-15
KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT CHANCE OF AVIATION IMPACTS COMES ON
SUNDAY AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS THE REGION.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM...REESE
AVIATION...SKOW
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