167
FXUS63 KTOP 150748
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
148 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND QUICKLY RETURNS UPPER 40S TODAY WITH 50S AND LOW 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- DRY FORECAST CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
A WARMER MORNING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS IS UNDERWAY AS WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTH KEEPING THE BL WELL-MIXED. TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AND SHOULD NOT COOL TOO MUCH
FURTHER AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON PROMOTING MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 40S
UNDER DIURNAL MIXING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS
ANTICIPATED - WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE NEXT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES. BETTER FORCING AND DYNAMICS NEEDED FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE DEEPENS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
SEEING ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL
BELOW 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE, A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS COULD RAISE
CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST. WINDS SHIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH
WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE
CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. TEMPERATURES OVER THE LATE WEEK
WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST. LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH EXPECTED WIND
TRENDS FOR TONIGHT, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW MORE OF A
SETUP FOR TURBULENCE THAN WIND SHEAR, AND SFC WINDS SHOULD STAY
AROUND OR PERHAPS JUST ABOVE 10 KTS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS SHOULD PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS
THEREAFTER.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...PICHA
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