444
FXUS63 KTOP 252342
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
542 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND STRATUS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
- WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE BIG COOLDOWN COMES SUNDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KS AS THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
ONCE AGAIN, FOG HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING AS THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS STAGNANT NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KS. WITH MOST OF THE AREA
STAYING MOSTLY SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS FOR THE DAY FROM LIFTING
FOG, DO NOT EXPECT AMPLE WARMING TO TAKE PLACE. THAT SAID, AS OF 1
PM, THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING CLOSER TO THE STALLED BOUNDARY THAT
HAS HELPED THOSE AREAS IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. NORTH WHERE LOW CLOUDS STAY
PROMINENT, ONLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON (2-4 PM) THAT EFFICIENT
MIXING MAKES IT UP TOWARDS I-70, BUT THE LATE WARMING EFFORT WILL
LIKELY ONLY PROVIDE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMTH TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR,
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN. WITH
MINIMAL DIURNAL WARMING TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESATURATED THE BL AND
FOG UP ONCE AGAIN. THAT MAIN DIFFERENCE AND FORECASTING CHALLENGE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT BEHIND A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST, BRINGING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS - POTENTIALLY
DOWN INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW LIMITED
WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR ADVECTION. SREF VISIBILITY PROBS TEND TO
AGREE WITH THE LESSENED FOG CHANCE WITH SCATTERED 20-30% CHANCES OF
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE THROUGH THE MORNING. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH STRATUS
MIXING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, DIURNAL MIXING
AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH
A TOUCH MORE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FILTERING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOW 70S. EACH AFTERNOON WILL COME CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES,
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. THE WARMTH COMES TO
AN ABRUPT STOP BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN LOW
SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOWING TREND IN THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY AND HAS SHIFTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT FURTHER
WEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS. WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG CAA (NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH AT TIMES) BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MUCH WARMING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS LIKELY SEEN IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY - UPPER 30S NORTHWEST RANGING TO UPPER
50S TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL KS. THE COLD PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
TEENS! THERE IS A SUBTLE WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK, BUT NBM 25TH-
75TH TEMPERATURE SPREADS STILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES THIS FAR
OUT, SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR ZERO IN THE
NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE SUNDAY'S CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LOW STRATUS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET SHOULD DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS. LIGHT FOG WILL
DEVELOP, WHICH MAY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES. I
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY. BUT A 30 TO 40 KT
LOW- LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND
WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT VISIBILITY MAY GO BACK UP ABOVE 6SM THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE STRATUS SHOULD ALSO MIX
OUT AFTER 12Z FRI. THERE MAYBE SOME MODERATE WIND SHEAR OF 20 TO
30 KTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
RECORD FORECAST NORMAL
DEC 25 HIGH TOPEKA 68 (1922, 2016) 66 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1950, 2016) 54 39
DEC 26 HIGH TOPEKA 67 (2008) 69 41
CONCORDIA 64 (1959, 2008) 68 39
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 69 41
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 64 39
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GARGAN
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER
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