520  
FXUS63 KTOP 231043  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AT TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2024  
 
NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING  
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY HAVE  
BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF CLEAR  
SKIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS APPEAR A BIT STRONGER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT  
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD YET FORM TOWARD DAWN, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER  
VALLEYS.  
 
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SURFACE-BASED CAPE SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 1000  
J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION TODAY. MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND LITTLE IN  
THE WAY OF FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK, BUT  
GIVEN RECENT EVENTS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN SMALL CHANCES. STORM  
MOTIONS COULD BE ON THE SLOW SIDE FOR SOME HEAVIER AMOUNT POTENTIAL,  
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR WIND GUSTS FROM  
RESULTING FROM CONVECTION.  
 
UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY WHICH  
SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 90S BY THEN. HAZY SKY CONDITIONS MAY  
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY FROM SMOKE ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF FIRES IN  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH NO  
APPARENT FORCING MECHANISMS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK  
UPPER TROUGH FORMING TO THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT THIS  
MAY ONLY PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES, A  
WEAK FRONT MAY REACH THIS FAR SOUTH AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT, GIVING RISE  
TO SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
BRINGS DEWPOINTS UP AND HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH CONCERNING  
LEVELS MONDAY IF THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2024  
 
SHALLOW GROUND FOG, MAINLY AT KTOP PER OBSERVATIONS AND  
SATELLITE DATA, SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED  
CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR  
POTENTIAL MENTION. MORE GROUND FOG LATE IN THIS FORECAST ALSO  
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...POAGE  
AVIATION...POAGE  
 
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