296  
FXUS63 KTOP 141722  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
EARLY SPRING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A TOUCH OF LATE  
WINTER BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST OR FREEZE  
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.  
 
THE UPPER FLOW IS SLOW TO CHANGE MUCH WITH A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL CUT-  
OFFS SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO  
BRITISH COLUMBIA AN OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE. NORTHERN STREAM  
ENERGY WORKING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CANADA LOOKS TO  
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY SHUT-OFF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERN  
STREAM ENERGY AND SUBTROPICAL ENERGY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
AREA. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN A ZONE OF LITTLE CHANGE WITH  
ADVECTION PATTERNS REMAINING ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE AT TIMES.  
 
CURRENTLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  
DRIER DEWPOINTS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THE KS/NE STATE  
LINE WITH 32F CURRENTLY AT KBIE. THE FROST ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE  
REASONABLE FOR THE HWY 36 CORRIDOR WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THE  
NORTHERLY BREEZE MAY PICK UP AND KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FURTHER  
SOUTH THAN WOULD BE IDEAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP BUT STILL  
VERY REASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGES EXPECTED FOR FROST  
HEADLINES.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE COOLER WITH THE COLDER AIR  
SETTLING IN KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER EAST  
CENTRAL AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR  
FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW THERE IS  
JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST THAT THE  
DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FROST/FREEZE  
HEADLINE. EXPECT THAT THE DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS WHAT  
AREAS SAW FREEZING TONIGHT AND GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVERAGE  
TO DRAW UP MORE TARGETED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTSIDE OF SEVERAL OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORNING LOWS TO DIP INTO  
FREEZING TERRITORY, A BREAK FROM THESE CHILLY MORNING LOWS COMES  
WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS LOW  
FILLS AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE TRANSLATING OUT OF THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO FRIDAY. COOL SECTOR TYPE PRECIPITATION WITH A  
DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE  
RAINFALL. AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH  
THE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED TO POSE FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS  
TIME. AFTER THIS, THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A MAINLY DRY AND COOL  
PATTERN WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE  
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THIS  
AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...DRAKE  
AVIATION...FLANAGAN  
 
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