749
FXUS63 KTOP 300509
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105.
- STAYING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, MAINLY TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HEAT HAS RETURNED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY BEFORE BECOMING LOCKED IN PLACE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS THE REST OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE WEST OF THE RIDGE,
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT WEEK. MIXING
WILL BE A BIT DEEPER THAN SOME OF OUR PRIOR EPISODES OF HEAT THIS
SUMMER, SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S (POSSIBLY
100 IN SPOTS) EACH AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 60S.
NEVERTHELESS, WE MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT, AS CURRENT
HEAT INDEX FORECASTS ARE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONSIDERED ISSUING ONE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL WAIT ONE
MORE FORECAST CYCLE TO SEE HOW DEEP MOISTURE MIXES OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. IF DEWPOINTS STAY ON THE HIGHER END
OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, I'LL BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE
REACH THAT 105 HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY TOMORROW.
WITH PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING, A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE EACH DAY. THIS
WILL BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD, AS THE STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
MAKE THE HEAT SLIGHTLY MORE TOLERABLE, BUT THE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT
MIXING WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING OFF AS MUCH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S, NEAR RECORD WARM
VALUES.
AS UPPER RIDGING STAYS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA, MOST OF THE NEXT
WEEK WILL STAY DRY. ANY MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED A BIT TOO OUR
WEST, IT'S NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS SNEAK INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL KS. THIS
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR MORNING HOURS, IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP FROM ANY STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE
LLJ. NO ONE DAY WITH ANY MORE NOTABLE SIGNAL, BUT THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WHILE
KEEPING STORM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
RECORD FORECAST
AUGUST 30 TOPEKA 79, SET IN 1932 77
CONCORDIA 78, SET IN 1951 79
AUGUST 31 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1912 AND 1947 79
CONCORDIA 81, SET IN 1947 78
SEPTEMBER 1 TOPEKA 81, SET IN 2011 79
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1913 79
SEPTEMBER 2 TOPEKA 80, SET IN 2011 79
CONCORDIA 79, SET IN 1929 77
SEPTEMBER 3 TOPEKA 77, SET IN 1939 78
CONCORDIA 80, SET IN 1947 77
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...POAGE
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