090  
FXUS63 KTOP 260425 AAA  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1125 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA  
RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS.  
 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF THE  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION. SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN  
PLACE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.  
LOWS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH  
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. IN FACT, SEVERAL  
LOCATIONS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. AN UPPER  
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US TOMORROW. DRIER AIR  
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW  
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE ON THE  
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW  
60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE  
WEEK WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.  
 
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE COLORADO  
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE  
EAST COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR REGION WILL BEGIN TO  
STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS. SUSTAINED  
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. A NICE BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS  
EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND WAA  
OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE PBL. EXPECT  
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST FALL  
(TOPEKA WAS LAST IN THE 70S ON OCTOBER 29TH). POPS WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE  
ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WARM FRONT WILL START  
TO SET UP FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHEAST KS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
LOOK TO INCREASE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ELEVATED CAPE IN THE RANGE OF 300-600  
J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CAP IN PLACE IN THE LOW  
LEVELS. EVERYTHING COMBINED, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN KS INTO EAST-  
CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY. A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS LOOKS  
TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE  
SURFACE SYSTEM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE  
CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THE CURRENT QPF FROM RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK RANGES FROM A THIRD OF  
AN INCH IN EAST-CENTRAL KS TO NEAR TWO INCHES ALONG THE KS/NE  
BORDER. FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF  
I-70 COULD AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE RAINFALL ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH  
RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE  
GUSTY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
NOTICEABLY COLDER BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.  
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT COULD EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL BUT TOP SITES OVERNIGHT  
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS CONDS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LOWER  
RIVER BOTTOMS OF TOP GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RH. ONE LIMITING  
FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE THE SCT TO BKN CIGS IN THE  
060-080 RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TEEFEY  
LONG TERM...TEEFEY  
AVIATION...OMITT  
 
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