936
FXUS63 KTOP 161939
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
139 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND COULD CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS.
- THERE ARE A COUPLE LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 40 PERCENT) OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AND STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WAVE OFF THE CA COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN LEFT BROAD UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CAUSED SOME
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WAVES
LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW INITIALLY FOR SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. SEE A DISCUSSION ON THIS BELOW.
BUT WE COULD BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSOLATION.
SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. EVEN THOUGH THERE
SHOULD BE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, A STRONG EML OVER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED. BUT
THERE SHOULD BE SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE EVENING.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY EVENING. WHAT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED WITH MOST SOLUTIONS FAILING TO GENERATE ANY QPF. SO POPS
HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE KS/NEB STATE LINE. BUT THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR MOISTURE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE
MAINLY RESTRICTED TO WRAP AROUND POTENTIAL ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE
THURSDAY. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES WERE PRETTY MIXED WITH MORE MEMBERS
SHOWING NO QPF VERSUS THOSE WITH QPF. SO AGAIN POPS REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY WITH ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IF THERE IS PRECIP. A THIRD SHORTWAVE COULD MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY, BUT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS TEND TO
KEEP THIS WAVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT WEAKENS AND
SHEARS OUT. SO POPS REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WHILE
MODELS SHOW THE BETTER FORCING PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER A WARM START TO THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGHING
PROGGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BRING MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS PRETTY REASONABLE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SPREADS INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL THE
SEVENTY FIFTH PERCENTILE WOULD KEEP LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S. THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED REASONABLE WELL BY THE NBM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT THE
RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME IFR STRATUS
ADVECTING INTO AT LEAST THE TOP/FOE TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES. THINK THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATED AT 139 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS HIGH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED. BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST KS, AND A PACIFIC FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEST OF CONCORDIA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WITH CLOUD COVER
POTENTIALLY LIMITING MIXING AND A LACK OF A STRONG WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS, MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY HOLD AROUND 25 PERCENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR EAST CENTRAL KS.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING TO ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO EVALUATE THE 00Z GUIDANCE TONIGHT.
RH IS FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WESTERLY WIND
SHUNTING MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER EAST CENTRAL KS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ058.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
FIRE WEATHER...WOLTERS
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