655
FXUS63 KTOP 231022
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING CONTINUED FIRE CONCERNS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL
- ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A BRIEF REPRIEVE TODAY FROM THE WIND AND THE ANOMALOUS WARM
TEMPERATURES AS A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN FROM THE
NORTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WE GO FROM 70S TO 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE STATE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH VALUES. DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS, SUCH DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE NEXT STRONG FRONT IS PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT NOT
BEFORE BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE
DAY. A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE LOCATIONS TO
HIT ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SOME MODELS INDICATE THE HINT OF A PRECIPITATION CHANCE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE
DRY AND WELL MIXED, AND WITH A LACK OF A MOISTURE SOURCE OR
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION THINK THESE CHANCES ARE LOW. BY FRIDAY
MORNING, THE PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIP FROM THE NBM IS ONLY ABOUT 10% AT MHK TO AROUND 20% AT
TOP.
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMUP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP TO OUR WEST ON RADAR BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE
TOO HIGH BASED TO PRODUCE MUCH AT THE GROUND. ADDED A VCSH TO
MANHATTAN FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ADDED A TEMPO GUST GROUP
FOR LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATED AT 112 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE PERSISTENT LACK OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - ALONG
WITH PERIODIC STRONG FRONTS - MAKE THIS WEEK A VOLATILE ONE FOR
FIRE WEATHER. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRING DECEPTIVELY LIGHTER
WINDS BUT THE LOW RH IS LIKELY TO EXACERBATE FIRE BEHAVIOR, AND
VERY WARM HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE THIS THE MOST CRITICAL FIRE
DAY THIS WEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY BUT GUIDANCE
SHOWING WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY THIS WEEK.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...CRAVEN
FIRE WEATHER...CRAVEN
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