525
FXUS63 KTOP 012307
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY NICE SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
- A SLOW RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS MONDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO RETURN BACK INTO THE
MID 90S.
- DRY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY PM
AND WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES AGAIN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A VERY PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS UNDERWAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
SITS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WITH MINIMAL HUMIDITY. THIS HAS
BEEN MADE POSSIBLE BY YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE LARGE
UPPER LOW THAT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT FAIRLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH HELPING TO CALM
WINDS A BIT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW, SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, MAINLY JUST FOG IN
LOW-LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
HUMIDITY SHOULD AGAIN BE PLEASANT BY THE AFTERNOON AS TDS REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR -
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AS FOR RAIN/STORM CHANCES,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS BETTER CHANCES REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING EJECTING OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP PUSH AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS KANSAS AND HELP TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY COME THURSDAY
BEFORE ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL WAVES RETURN CHANCES BY FRIDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS IN THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
ENERGY AND SHEAR, BUT AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE ZERO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BECOME THE MAIN HEADLINE AGAIN. GIVEN THE 10%
CHANCE OR SO OF POPS BY THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICIES
GETTING ABOVE 105 DEGREES IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT NBM PROBABILITIES
CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 20-40% RANGE FOR HI ABOVE 100 DEGREES BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE BEYOND THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO KEEP
ZONAL/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SO
NOT EXPECTING ANOTHER LONG-TERM HEATWAVE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
NORTH WINDS WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, STAYING LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SKIES STAY CLEAR AS WELL. WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, COULD SEE SOME BRIEF/PATCHY FOG
TOWARDS SUNRISE, MOST LIKELY IN FAVORED LOW-LYING SPOTS SUCH AS KTOP.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...REESE
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