854
FXUS63 KTOP 112233
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER ON WEDNESDAY.
- HEAT BUILDS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY NEAR 100.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ANCHORS THE PATTERN, AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS BROAD
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES NORTHEAST KANSAS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BENEATH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
H5 LEVEL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW KEEPING
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LITTLE CHANGES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 PREVAIL WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING MAY AGAIN SUPPORT PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MAINLY ALONG THE KANSAS
RIVER CORRIDOR.
THE PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO MIDWEEK CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE UPPER
HIGH RETROGRADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS TRANSITION PERIOD AROUND WEDNESDAY
OFFERS THE BEST, ALBEIT STILL LOW, CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM AS WEAK MOISTURE RETURNS BENEATH THE REPOSITIONING RIDGE.
H85 TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 20C WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER
90S FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LATE-WEEK HEAT
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS NEXT
WEEKEND REMAIN WIDE, ON THE ORDER OF 9 DEGREES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILES, SO WHILE GUIDANCE GIVES ROUGHLY A 30% CHANCE OF
REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS, CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC NUMBER IS LIMITED.
DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S, HOLDING HEAT
INDICES ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURE, BUT PROBABILITIES
OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 100 APPROACH A COIN FLIP AT TOPEKA BY NEXT
SATURDAY. HEAT HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THE WARMER
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THERE
MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY GROUND FOG AT TOP BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVE AROUND SUNRISE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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