115
FXUS63 KTOP 250432 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1132 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
20Z WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS AN MCV LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS. THIS HAS SPARKED A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE STORMS
WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH INTO NEB. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER
NORTHERN WY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO NM.
THE EXPECTATION FOR TONIGHT IS THERE TO BE A PAUSE IN STORMS ONCE
THE LINE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB TO
SOUTHWEST KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT. OVERALL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MODEST SO STORM MODE IF EXPECTED TO BE MULTI
CELLULAR WITH A HAIL AND WINDS RISK. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. CAMS ARE SHOWING STORMS REMAINING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS WITH LITTLE FORCING TO PUSH STORMS EAST AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN KS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE BASED ON WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH LOWER
60S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MERIDIONAL PATTERN
PERSISTING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS LIFT NORTH. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM AND CLOUDS
LIMITING INSOLATION. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER COULD
DEVELOP. AREAS IN FAR EAST CENTRAL KS (ANDERSON CO) WILL BE THE AREA
MOST AT RISK SINCE CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE THAT FAR EAST AND
THERE COULD BE BETTER DESTABILIZATION. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING READINGS IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART.
PRECIP SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY BECOMES LESS PROMINENT.
A NORTHWEST WIND BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR SHOULD LOWER TEMPS INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS LONG AS THIS FEATURE PERSISTS, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALTHOUGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIMITED SINCE WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR DEEP MOISTURE RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. BY THE WEEKEND,
MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS RISING WITH THE CLOSED LOW EITHER BEING
REABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES OF DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY. WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, CONFIDENCE IS BLOW AVERAGE. BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE DRYING OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK OR
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
COMPLEX OF T-STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH TIME OVERNIGHT
SO WILL REDUCE VIS CONDS WITH THE T-STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN HOW FAR EAST THE MAIN AREA OF T-STORMS WILL GET/WORST VIS
CONDS. PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW IS TRYING TO TIME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS WHICH IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DO AT THIS TIME SO WILL
LEAVE VCTS AS IS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>039-054.
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...OMITT
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