969
FXUS63 KTOP 212240
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
440 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER ARRIVES FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS EXPECTED, AS LOW
AS -15 TO -20 AT TIMES.
- SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TOTALS, BUT FORECAST AMOUNTS HAVE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED. WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
CONUS, WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST PUSHING A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SUNNY SKIES
AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE AGAIN BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY COOLER BUT STILL NEAR-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.
THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGES ARRIVE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH VERY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT OR LOW TEENS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, AND
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO MAY NEED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING, AS WIND CHILLS WILL NEAR -15
DEGREES AT LEAST NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. COLD AIR WILL BECOME MORE
ENTRENCHED INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY, VERY LIKELY (80-95%) AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 AT TIMES.
LOW CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE LOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME BY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST
SOME. HOWEVER THIS TREND MAY END UP A BIT SLOWED IF SNOW COVER CAN
STICK AROUND A BIT LONGER.
SPEAKING OF SNOW, THAT REMAINS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AND FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT
DEPTH/TILT OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE KEY FOR WHERE AND HOW MUCH
SNOW FALLS. BUT OVERALL, GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH, AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA MERGES WITH AN UPPER
LOW MOVING EAST FROM CALIFORNIA. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN TWO
SOMEWHAT DISTINCT PHASES TO THE SNOW, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF LULL IN
BETWEEN. THE FIRST PHASE OCCURS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS BROAD FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS. ASCENT LOOKS WEAK,
BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. SUSPECT SOME
GUIDANCE IS TOO WET DURING THIS PERIOD, GIVEN THE WEAK ASCENT AND
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER EVEN WITH VERY LIGHT QPF, A VERY
DEEP DGZ SHOULD HELP MAKE FOR SOME HIGH RATIO SNOW, EVEN
CONSERVATIVELY SOMEWHERE AROUND 15:1.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL SOMETIME SATURDAY AS THIS INITIAL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WANES, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SECOND PHASE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST AND A MORE DEFINED 850 MB LOW PASSES TO
OUR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN BETTER ASCENT AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, THIS WOULD BE OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVIER SNOW, PARTICULARLY CLOSEST TO THE 850 LOW ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL KS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR
THIS PERIOD, AS A STRONGER AND MORE NW LOW (AS DEPICTED IN
ECMWF/EPS GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS MUCH GFS/GEFS) WILL TEND TO
DELIVER HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. AGAIN, COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND A DEEP DGZ WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW RATIOS, ESPECIALLY IF WE
CAN GET SOME BETTER VERTICAL MOTION.
SO WHERE DOES ALL THAT LEAVE US? CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN AT LEAST
A LIGHT (1-4" BETWEEN THE TWO PHASES) SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS (4-7+") APPEARS TO BE
SOUTH OF I-70 AND TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL KS, AGAIN TIED TO THE
TRACK OF THE MAIN SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-35. IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND UNCERTAINTY DECREASES, COULD END
UP EXPANDING THIS WATCH FARTHER NORTH/WEST. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO BETTER RESOLVE THESE DETAILS, AS SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
COMES INTO VIEW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LASTLY, IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW WITH THE VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS, AS THIS WILL BE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS FOR ANYONE CAUGHT
OUTDOORS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS PASSING. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING. A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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