315  
FXUS63 KTOP 051119  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
619 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM  
THURSDAY  
 
- HEAD ADVISORY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM  
WEDNESDAY  
 
- NIGHTTIME/MORNING STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
 
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING AT 08Z WAS SHOWING A  
PERTURBATION MOVING NORTHEAST WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS FROM NORTHWEST  
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN THE  
MOISTURE AXIS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH.  
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ANOTHER PERTURBATION WAS MOVING EASTWARD  
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO  
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE AREA, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN EAST CENTRAL  
KANSAS TODAY.  
 
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL  
WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN HIGH  
PLAINS TODAY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 103 TO 110  
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN TODAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR  
ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE AN UPGRADE TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WARNING INTO THURSDAY WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT  
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES. ALSO HAVE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER THE HEAT ADVISORY AS  
MUCH OF THOSE AREAS WILL REACH NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
STARTING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL  
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS PERTURBATIONS MOVE ALONG  
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES  
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS COME THURSDAY.  
CONVECTION AS WELL AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON  
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES COME THURSDAY, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO EXTEND HEAT  
HEADLINES. COME FRIDAY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS A FRONT WILL LIKELY  
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM  
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. A DRY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 80S AND 90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT TOP AND FOE THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING.  
ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF FOE AND TOP SO DID NOT  
INCLUDE A VCTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS  
BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-  
034>036.  
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ026-  
037>040-054>056-058-059.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...53  
AVIATION...53  
 
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