259
FXUS63 KTOP 011148
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EVENTUALLY TURNING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR, BUT COULD
STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP SLIGHTLY MONDAY, ENDING ANY THREAT FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS TURNING MORE ZONAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST FLATTENS AND A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED INTO OK WITH OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER WEST TX AND EASTERN NM.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING, VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADVECT
WARMER AIR OVER THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
ADDITION TO A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE VERTICAL LIFT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CAMS
START TO SHOW PRECIP AS EARLY AS 17-18Z TOWARDS OUR CENTRAL KS
COUNTIES WITH THIS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH 19-20Z. STILL THINK
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT COULD
DELAY ONSET CLOSER TO 20-21Z. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE I-70 CORRIDOR
SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE ON WHERE THE LINE MIGHT BE BETWEEN
A WINTRY MIX AND COLD RAIN. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SOUTH OF THERE LOOK
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN. IT'S A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR AREAS
NEAR I-70, BUT IF PRECIP STARTS ON THE EARLIER SIDE, WET BULB
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING TO
RAIN WITH SOME SORT OF WINTRY MIX DURING THE TRANSITION DEPENDING ON
HOW DEEP THE WARM NOSE IS. AREAS CLOSER TO THE HWY 36 CORRIDOR LOOK
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. AS WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURE PROFILES BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WE ALSO START TO LOSE CLOUD ICE PRODUCTION WITH
A LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE DGZ. WITH SOME VERTICAL LIFT REMAINING
IN THE STRATUS DECK, WE SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TOWARDS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BASED ON
HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS, COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE BY THIS TIME, SO
IMPACTS LOOK RATHER LIMITED FROM THIS IN THOSE AREAS. (THE NAM IS
OFF ON ITS OWN ISLAND THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT WITH RESPECT
TO TEMPERATURES, SO LEANED ON HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE.) FELT NO NEED TO
EXPAND THE ADVISORY AREA SOUTHWARD, BUT WE MAY NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. INITIAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED WITHOUT MUCH COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS, BUT LATER THIS EVENING,
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE IF IT DEVELOPS THAT FAR
WEST. CONFIDENCE IN THE LIFT PERSISTING THERE WAS NOT AS HIGH AS
FURTHER EAST, SO OPTED TO MAKE NO EXPANSIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY
BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IF CONFIDENCE GROWS. OVERALL, SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK LIGHT WITH MOST SNOW CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN TIERS OF COUNTIES AND PROBABLY UNDER AN INCH. STILL, THIS
COMBINED WITH A GLAZE OF ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED OR ELEVATED SURFACES.
VERTICAL LIFT LOOKS TO WEAKEN INTO MONDAY, BUT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO END THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FORECAST, BUT
FOR NOW AT LEAST BUMPED HIGHS DOWN ENOUGH TO KEEP EVERYONE IN THE
40S.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW PROGRESSIVE THE NEXT WAVE IS, BUT
THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS AN
OPEN WAVE AND BRING OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS EACH WAVE GETS CLOSER,
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS START THE PERIOD FOR THIS MORNING, TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY IFR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE'S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING THE
START OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. OPTED TO DELAY IT BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND IF THAT OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A COLD RAIN BY THAT POINT.
IF IT STARTS EARLIER, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD
BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PHASE OF THE EVENT. GETTING INTO THE
EVENING, PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FZDZ OR DZ DEPENDING ON
TEMPERATURES. TOP/FOE LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE BY
THEN, WITH MHK POSSIBLY BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR FZDZ, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN PRECIP LINGERING THAT FAR WEST. IN
ANY CASE, CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO IFR BY THE EVENING HOURS
WITH SOME INDICATIONS FOR LIFR TOWARDS MHK.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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