466  
FXUS63 KTOP 082322  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
522 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
- DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING  
 
- CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-70 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING  
 
- MAINLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, THEN WARMER AHEAD OF A STRONGER  
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK  
 
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TODAY'S SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH  
THE NE PANHANDLE, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT WAVE OFF THE PACIFIC  
COASTLINE. THE SFC PATTERN SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN THE OK/TX  
PANHANDLES WITH A DIFFUSE STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO  
SOUTHEAST KS. LIFT HAS REMAINED WEAK THROUGH THE DAY TO KEEP  
PRECIPITATION MAINLY AS DRIZZLE/MIST ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED  
SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING, DRY AIR ON THE  
BACKSIDE SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING WEST  
TO EAST TONIGHT. WEAK CAA BRINGS MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW  
30S.  
 
THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MUCH BETTER THAN TODAY -- PARTLY  
CLOUDY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH  
ITS TROUGH AXIS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,  
THOUGH THE BETTER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WITH A WEAKER VORT MAX  
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COMING OUT OF OK. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK-  
HITTING CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. HREF DATA TENDS TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE  
KS TURNPIKE FOR THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES, AND TEMPERATURES  
PROFILES WOULD FAVOR ALL RAIN. IF THIS WERE TO MOVE INTO THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIP WOULD NEED TO  
BE CONSIDERED, BUT THAT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET WITH GRADUAL WARMING AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES  
INCREASE INTO MONDAY EVENING, AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE IN THE REGION. BY TUESDAY, THERE ARE  
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THEREFORE A  
SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN WHERE EXACTLY THE DRY SLOT WILL END UP. CAN'T  
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT, BUT THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO NEGATE ANY POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS  
AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES AS WE  
ARE STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
LIFR CEILINGS AND DRIZZLE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL  
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT  
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRINGS DRIER AIR EASTWARD. SKIES WILL  
THEN TRY TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME  
FOG OR IFR STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING, BUT  
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS ACROSS NORTHERN KS,  
JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN TAF SITES.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...PICHA  
AVIATION...REESE  
 
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