663
FXUS63 KTOP 221118
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
618 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A WARM AND DRY DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER
80S. TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND MORE
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL FALL 10-15 DEGREES
FROM TODAY, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY, OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A FAST-MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS. THIS SHOULD
HELP BRING IN MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AND QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY AND FAR
NORTH MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH. PRESENTLY, FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. IF
THIS HAPPENS, THEN THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND IT SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
BAY. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP OR MOIST ADVECTION TAKES
LONGER THAN FORECAST, A DRY, WINDY AND WARM DAY WOULD LEAD TO
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, USHERING IN ANOTHER WARM
UP AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
CURRENT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING. THESE WINDS VEER FURTHER AND BECOME LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS AND
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...REESE
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