393
FXUS63 KTOP 121050
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST (60-85%) FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KS COULD GET A COUPLE INCHES
OR RAIN.
- COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES PER THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHILE UPPER RIDGING REMAINED
OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE OBS INDICATED AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CO THAT HAS ALLOWED GOOD
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD
JUST BEGUN TO RETURN THROUGH SOUTH TX. MEANWHILE A WEAK STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEB.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND UPPER RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET INFLUENCING GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. SO MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY OR
FORCING FOR PRECIP. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN NEAR
THE NEB STATE LINE THIS EVENING. RAP AND NAM ISENTROPIC SURFACES
SHOW THE BETTER SATURATION WITHIN THE LIFT STAYING JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS THE 00Z HRRR DEVELOPS SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SO CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NEAR THE STATE LINE. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE SATURATION LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD TAKE ANY PRECIP WITH
IT.
MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE PATTERN
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWER SPREAD FROM THE ENSEMBLES.
INITIALLY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NEB SAGGING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATING LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. IT MAY BE
THAT STORMS DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT. IN ANY CASE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50KT WITH A CORRIDOR
OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY TORNADO RISK
CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN BACK ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SRH. STORMS ALSO LOOK TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS PWS INCREASE
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS WOULD BE A RECORD VALUE FOR PRECIPITAL
WATER AND 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.
SO WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO MOVE.
BY WEDNESDAY MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL KS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER THE AREA. THIS WAVE
COULD ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY. LIMITED
INSOLATION AND THE FRONT SLIDING SOUTH MAY PREVENT MUCH
DESTABILIZATION AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KS. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE PROGGED
TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE NBM KEEPS
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS FOR THIS AND SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE IT. DID HOWEVER ADJUST HIGHS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY
ANTICIPATING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TO INHIBIT A STRONG WARM UP.
STILL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S MAY BE A
LITTLE WARM IF PRECIP PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY THE TIME THE
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KS
COULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
WANT TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH.
AS THE SURFACE WAVES LIFTS PAST THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING,
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO REDEVELOP BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO TREND A
LITTLE WARMER INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
ANOTHER BREEZY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
MAY LEAD TO SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARDS 12Z TUE. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
OCTOBER 12 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 93, SET IN 1899 AND 2024 91
CONCORDIA 93, SET IN 1899 93
OCTOBER 13 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 91, SET IN 1975 91
CONCORDIA 90, SET IN 1975 83
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
OCTOBER 12 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 68, SET IN 1890 AND 1899 72
CONCORDIA 67, SET IN 1975 73
OCTOBER 13 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 69, SET IN 1962, 68, 75 71
CONCORDIA 70, SET IN 1920 66
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...POAGE/WOLTERS
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