959
FXUS63 KTOP 020807
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
- THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WAS SPLIT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN CO, SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AN
UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A TROPICAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST TX
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHER HIGH PLAINS WIL CONTINUE AS THE THE H5
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX. WEAK MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND MOVING
NORTH WITH THE WEAK SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. MOST LIKELY LINES OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ALONG THESE
LINES. ALSO, OUTFLOW FROM THESE LINES OF STORMS MAY SHIFT THEM EAST.
MOST CAMS SHOW THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA. AT THIS TIME I COVERED THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MOST OF THE CAMS ONLY SHOW ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, ALTHOUGH THE
NAM, HRRR, AND RAP MODELS FORECAST 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IF
WE SEE MORE INSOLATION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MID 60
DEWPOINTS, THEN MLCAPE MAY BE OVER 1500 J/KG. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONG PULSE STORMS, SINCE THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KTS. THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PWATS ARE AROUND
1.6 INCHES, THUS SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL THE PAST 3 DAYS.
AFTER SUNSET, THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DIMINISH, THOUGH I
CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS
MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS, WHICH WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE H5
TROUGH ACROSS WEST TX AND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
SATURDAY MAY SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE H5 TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST KS. DCVA AHEAD OF THE
H5 TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ASCENT ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL CENTRAL KS,
PLUS MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE H5
TROUGH ACROSS OK INTO CENTRAL KS. I HAVE PLACED 60-70 POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH 40 TO 50 POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE 00Z 3KM NAM SHOWS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
REMAINING DRY THOUGH THE 6Z HRRR KEEPS AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN THERE MAY BE PULSE
STORMS AND THE PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES, SO
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE CWA AND A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY:
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO EASTERN CO WITH
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A LONGER WAVE LENGTH H5 TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER JET WILL REMIAN WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MOST DAYS WILL BE DRY WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THE GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST ACROSS WEST TX INTO EASTERN
CO. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SEE DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK PERTURBATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE EASTERN US LONGER WAVE LENGTH H5 TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN PLAINS AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
ASCENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. MAY SEE ANOTHER WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
TERMINALS. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOWARDS SUNRISE. IF FOG
DEVELOPS IT SHOULD MIX-OUT AFTER 13Z. A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE THE MHK TERMINAL THROUGH 7Z.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH CLOSE TO OR AFTER SUNSET.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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