334
FXUS63 KTOP 130602
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
102 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST ON SUNDAY, THEN WARMING UP AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S MONDAY.
- COLD FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE NEARBY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WETTER
PATTERN DEVELOPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
COMPLICATED SHORT-TERM FORECAST SETUP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH
MESOSCALE FACTORS LIKELY DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WEAK CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY STILL
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN KS, DRIVEN BY SOME
WEAK 700 MB WAA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, WATCHING TWO AREAS CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL AND STRONGER
CONVECTION. THE FIRST AREA IS ALONG THE COMPOSITE FRONTAL AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MORRIS TO COFFEY COUNTIES). CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS MORE CONDITIONAL, AND MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELL. SO ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS 60-70 MPH AND VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
DIAMETER. FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER, CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT. HERE, STORMS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS OR LARGE HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH. AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT, STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY POCKETS OF TRAINING CONVECTION. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" IF THIS OCCURS.
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY,
THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
ENDS UP. BUT PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER TO THE NORTH,
WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST KS TO THE UPPER 80S IN SOUTHERN COFFEY AND ANDERSON
COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS A RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 100.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER, IN THE 70S AND EVEN 60S.
EAST OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE STALLING ON WEDNESDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A LARGE
SPREAD IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND EVEN
LATER ON IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE VERY DRY LAST 40 DAYS SHOULD LIMIT FLOODING
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS, BUT IT'S AT
LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
TIMING OF TS IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MHK GIVEN UPSTREAM CONVECTION, BUT IT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN FURTHER EAST AS STORMS GENERALLY MOVE ESE AND MAY TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF TOPEKA TERMINALS. FELT THE TIMING IN PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
SEEMED REASONABLE, BUT WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON MVFR CIGS LINGERING AFTER STORMS, BUT THE MODELS
THAT DO SHOW LOWER CIGS ARE OVERDONE ON THAT CURRENTLY, SO LEANED
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...PICHA
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