315
FXUS63 KTOP 051119
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM
THURSDAY
- HEAD ADVISORY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 9 PM
WEDNESDAY
- NIGHTTIME/MORNING STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING AT 08Z WAS SHOWING A
PERTURBATION MOVING NORTHEAST WITHIN A MOISTURE AXIS FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
MOISTURE AXIS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH.
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ANOTHER PERTURBATION WAS MOVING EASTWARD
AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 103 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE AGAIN TODAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
ALL BUT EAST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE AN UPGRADE TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING INTO THURSDAY WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES. ALSO HAVE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER THE HEAT ADVISORY AS
MUCH OF THOSE AREAS WILL REACH NEAR 105 AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
STARTING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CHANCES FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AS PERTURBATIONS MOVE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR NORTHERN KANSAS COME THURSDAY.
CONVECTION AS WELL AS CLOUD DEBRIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES COME THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TO EXTEND HEAT
HEADLINES. COME FRIDAY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS A FRONT WILL LIKELY
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. A DRY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT TOP AND FOE THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF FOE AND TOP SO DID NOT
INCLUDE A VCTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS
BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
034>036.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ026-
037>040-054>056-058-059.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53
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