663
FXUS63 KTOP 081044
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
544 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF I-35.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) SATURDAY NIGHT
- A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A POSITIVE
TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
FROM IA, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS KS. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE 12 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWED SHOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM
NORTHERN IL, WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NE, THEN SOUTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHWEST KS AND NORTHEAST CO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID
50S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WERE IN THE LOWER 30S, AND DEWPOINTS
SOUTH OF I-70 WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:
THE H5 TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN
KS TODAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH A
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
TOPEKA AROUND NOON. IF BETTER RESIDUAL MOISTURE CAN RETURN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. MLCAPES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
GIVEN 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, THERE MAYBE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. HOWEVER,
IF THE FRONT MOVES FASTER SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA, THEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED H5 DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KS BUT THE GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY AS DCVA
AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING BUT SKIES WIL
CLEAR BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGHS SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING
BROAD H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL US, WITH THE H5 RIDGE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS A
BIT FARTHER WEST THEN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE H5 RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY ALLOW MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT A WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEK, WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY, MID TO UPPER 80S
TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY, AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS
TODAY. A SW LOW-LEVEL JET OF 45 KTS 1500 FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MHK AFTER 18Z, AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
KTOP AND KFOE NEAR 00Z SAT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH-NORHEAS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
11 KTS OR LESS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARGAN
AVIATION...GARGAN
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