374
FXUS63 KTOP 231126
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET, AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIMITED CAPE WOULD BRING SOME SMALL HAIL AT
BEST AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, WITH SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON, AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TRIMMED A BIT
OFF HIGH TEMPS WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE AREA EMERGES ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE TODAY,
DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND STRENGTHENING
THE LOW LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER TROF DEVELOPS. THIS BRINGS A QUICK
INCREASE TO BOTH THE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL
AS THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE MID LEVELS, AND WOULD ANTICIPATE
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY IN THE 02-04Z TIMEFRAME
SATURDAY EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR.
THESE STORMS ALSO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY, AS THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY AND DIMINISHES CONVECTION AS IT DOES SO. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS OVERNIGHT WOULD BE HAIL.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY, AND AT THIS POINT THE FRONT IS IN THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH MOST OF THE
DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL NEED TO WATCH STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, SINCE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SUPERCELLS THAT
CLIP OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BRUNT OF THE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.
A BREAK FROM THE RAIN FOLLOWS FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH THE COOLER
SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON MONDAY,
WITH QUICK RETURN TO WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. RAIN WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY, AND AS
THE SYSTEM IS A SLOW MOVER TO THE EAST SINCE IT IS ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS CANADA. SO
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM MAY CHANGE A BIT. LONGER RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS RUNNING IN THE
60S LATE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
ADDED A WINDOW OF LLWS AT FOE AND MHK AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NEARLY
180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN THE SURFACE AT AROUND 1600FT AGL FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. SHOWERS GENERALLY STAY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING , BUT ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO TOP/FOE THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES FOR LOWER CLOUDS OR
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN DRIZZLE MID DAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67
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