137
FXUS63 KTOP 151712
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND EVEN NEAR RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE IN PLAY MOST EVERY DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DO FORM AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS STORMS ADVANCE SOUTHEAST
THEY LIKELY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND HAZARD.
- SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEVERE RISKS BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH AN EML HOLDING IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS LIKELY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
- MONDAY MAY BE THE DAY WITH THE LARGEST THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ALL THREATS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
IS SPINNING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM POSITIONED OVER THE BAJA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH NOW OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN
COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA BACK INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF KANSAS. EARLY THIS MORNING A STRONG LLJ CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST AND STEADILY VEER. THE ACTUAL NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
SUPPORTING AN MCS OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A FEW HIGHER BASED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE BEING MAINTAINED IN THE WAA
REGIME OVER CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS.
GENERALLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL INTRODUCE STEADY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST EACH DAY. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST FOCUS FOR STORMS TO
INITIATE APPEARS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NE
VICINITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LLJ WILL STILL BE A
QUESTION THIS EVENING AS TO HOW STRONG AND WHERE THE BEST
CONVERGENCE SETS UP. EXPECT THAT STORMS THAT BREAK THE CAP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WORKING INTO THE AREA
THIS SHOULD ACT TO WORK IN CONCERN WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO
ALLOW FOR AN INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILE TO ENHANCE ANY WINDS WITH
STORMS THAT BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THUS, STILL EXPECT THE LARGE
HAIL THREAT TO BE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THEN STORMS TO
FAVOR MORE A TRANSITION TO A WIND THREAT BEFORE TENDING TO WEAKEN
WITH SOUTHEAST MOTION.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE EML TO BE STRONG OVER CENTRAL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BE THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY EVENING. IF CAPPING IS STILL
STRONG OVER THE AREA, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS HAVE CHALLENGES
FORMING AND THE OVERALL SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL THIS FAR EAST
OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL OUTCOME MAY BE
STORMS THAT FORM OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WORK EAST INTO THE EVENING
MAINTAINED BY THE LLJ WHICH SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING INTO THE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PERIODS. EXPECT WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS AT THIS POINT.
MONDAY IS THE LOOKING LIKE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT LEVEL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST WITH VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES QUICKLY BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG DPVA TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF
THE FRONT IS ACROSS THE AREA THE KEY FACTOR WILL BE WHERE THE
SURFACE TRIPLE POINT ENDS UP. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SHEAR VECTORS APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE SURFACE LOW
AND DRYLINE WORK INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THEN WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE A
POTENTIALLY IDEAL FLOW PATTERN FOR POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES TO FORM
WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BOTTOM
LINE, THIS TIME FRAME IS WORTH WATCHING AND ONE TO BE PREPARED FOR
IF THE TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK AND ON TARGET FOR
THE FORECAST AREA.
LEADING UP TO THIS, EXPECT NEAR OR NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOWING SUIT, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LIMITED FORCING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING SOME CAP OVER THE
TERMINALS LEADS ME TO THINK TS CHANCES ARE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE CAMS WHICH
KEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATE LINE. SO VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT TOP
BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z. BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TEND TO KEEP MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY IN THE EVENING. THEN
AS SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN. SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 15
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1944) 93
CONCORDIA 91 (1944, 2012) 95
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 16
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 95 (1931) 92
CONCORDIA 93 (2019) 93
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 17
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 92 (1907) 90
CONCORDIA 96 (1996) 98
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 17
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 73 (1996) 68
CONCORDIA 68 (1902, 1906) 67
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 94 (1975) 93
CONCORDIA 94 (1967, 1988) 95
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 71 (1911) 72
CONCORDIA 72 (1911) 69
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...DRAKE
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