418
FXUS63 KTOP 241034
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
- SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS PER THE 07Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT HAD
PUSHED INTO THE OZARKS. BUT SURFACE OBS STILL HAD A GOOD GRADIENT IN
DEWPOINT TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TODAY. PRESSURE
RISES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVE
SEEN UPSTREAM. ADDITIONALLY MODELS DON'T REALLY SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OR MOISTURE ADVECTION REDEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COOLER
AND DRYER AIR WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
INSOLATION TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FROM THE 12Z ENSEMBLES OF ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY A WEAK
PERTURBATION LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A BETTER
DEFINED SHORTWAVE SUNDAY EVENING. FOR SATURDAY THE OPERATIONAL 00Z
NAM/GFS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINING
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK TO BE STEEP ENOUGH THAT IF AN ELEVATED STORM COULD DEVELOP,
THERE WOULD BE A HAIL RISK. THE LACK OF QPF FROM THE OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON HAD ME QUESTIONING THE LIKELY POPS FROM
THE NBM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. BUT A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES,
LEAD BY THE ECMWF MEMBERS, DEVELOP SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS HAVE LEFT THE HIGH POPS IN TACT. A BREAK FROM PRECIP IS
PROBABLE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY AS THE PERTURBATION
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THEN THE BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE INSTABILITY AXIS BETWEEN THE 00Z
NAM/GFS. STILL BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 50KT AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM OR BETTER SEEM TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE WARM
SECTOR TO ADVECT FURTHER NORTH IF THE SURFACE LOW CAN DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. MUCH OF THE 12Z MACHINE LEARNING
OUTPUT HAS THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AT 30 PERCENT OR BETTER. SO SUNDAY CERTAINLY DESERVES OUR
CONTINUED ATTENTION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS.
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA,
THIS SHOULD BRING DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK, MODELS PROG A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD. PREDICTABILITY
IS LOWER IN THIS TIME FRAME, BUT ENSEMBLES HAVE A MIXED SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE CHANCE POPS FROM
THE NBM AND WPC. OCCASIONAL WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF AND GFS NEXT WEEK LIMIT CHANCES FOR STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A BIG WARM UP. SO THE FORECAST HAS TEMPS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY
SEASONABLE FOR LATE APRIL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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