296
FXUS63 KTOP 141722
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021
EARLY SPRING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A TOUCH OF LATE
WINTER BRINGING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
THE UPPER FLOW IS SLOW TO CHANGE MUCH WITH A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL CUT-
OFFS SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FURTHER WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA AN OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE IN PLACE. NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WORKING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CANADA LOOKS TO
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY SHUT-OFF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND SUBTROPICAL ENERGY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN A ZONE OF LITTLE CHANGE WITH
ADVECTION PATTERNS REMAINING ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE AT TIMES.
CURRENTLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
DRIER DEWPOINTS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THE KS/NE STATE
LINE WITH 32F CURRENTLY AT KBIE. THE FROST ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE
REASONABLE FOR THE HWY 36 CORRIDOR WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE. THE
NORTHERLY BREEZE MAY PICK UP AND KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WOULD BE IDEAL FOR FROST CONDITIONS TO SET UP BUT STILL
VERY REASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGES EXPECTED FOR FROST
HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE COOLER WITH THE COLDER AIR
SETTLING IN KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER EAST
CENTRAL AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST THAT THE
DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINE. EXPECT THAT THE DAY CREW WILL BE ABLE TO ASSESS WHAT
AREAS SAW FREEZING TONIGHT AND GET A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVERAGE
TO DRAW UP MORE TARGETED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF SEVERAL OTHER OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORNING LOWS TO DIP INTO
FREEZING TERRITORY, A BREAK FROM THESE CHILLY MORNING LOWS COMES
WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS LOW
FILLS AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE TRANSLATING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO FRIDAY. COOL SECTOR TYPE PRECIPITATION WITH A
DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH
THE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED TO POSE FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME. AFTER THIS, THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A MAINLY DRY AND COOL
PATTERN WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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