786  
FXUS63 KTOP 022020  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
220 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING  
RECORD VALUES ON SUNDAY.  
 
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST FIRE DANGER ACROSS  
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY.  
 
- CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS RETURN  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE  
WESTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER  
THE PLAINS. AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD LOW PRESSURE IN  
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION A STRONG LOW  
LEVEL JET AROUND 55KTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH  
INCREASING WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS LOOK TO JUST  
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD  
TONIGHT AND MAY THREATEN RECORD WARM LOWS AT TOPEKA AND CONCORDIA  
FOR MARCH 3RD.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FASTER PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH  
THAT WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.  
THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS EAST  
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. THIS IS THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS MINIMUM  
RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE  
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND ALL OF EAST  
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM SUNDAY WHERE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL  
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DEEP  
MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S,  
WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE RECORD HIGH AT  
TOPEKA WILL BE IN JEOPARDY FOR SUNDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY  
NIGHT, THE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON  
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS, PRE AND POST FRONTAL, ON MONDAY ALONG WITH RH  
DROPPING INTO THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS  
ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN INTO  
THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS AFFECT THE  
AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH 03Z WITH LLWS DEVELOPING IN THE  
1200-1400 FT AGL AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 04Z AND LASTING THROUGH  
15Z. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 20-23KTS WITH GUSTS TO  
35KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM 04Z-16Z, THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER  
16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY  
AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A FIRE  
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FASTER  
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS  
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND  
GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS THE AREA OF MOST  
CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE  
TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR  
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND ALL OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM  
SUNDAY WHERE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXISTS AT  
THIS TIME. CHANGES IN TIMING OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON  
THE EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY  
NIGHT, THE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON  
MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS, PRE AND POST FRONTAL, ON MONDAY ALONG WITH RH  
DROPPING INTO THE 23 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
UPDATED AT 220 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
RECORD HIGHS:  
 
MARCH 3  
RECORD FORECAST  
TOPEKA 80 IN 1910 80  
CONCORDIA 79 IN 1946 74  
 
RECORD WARM LOWS:  
 
MARCH 3  
RECORD FORECAST  
TOPEKA 52 IN 1992 57  
CONCORDIA 50 IN 1983 50  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-  
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...53  
AVIATION...53  
FIRE WEATHER...53  
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/53  
 
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