040
FXUS63 KTOP 151049
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
449 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
- STOUT NORTH WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED, GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH
FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, STRONG WINDS, AND SOMEWHAT LOW
RH LENDS TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
STRONG, MID LEVEL MERIDIONAL FLOW OBSERVED PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW
TRAVERSES MICHIGAN AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHES THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. BEHIND THE PASSING SFC RIDGE AXIS, TROUGHING BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPS TO RETURN TEMPORARILY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE MIXY BL AND
SOUTHERLY WAA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY
EARLY EVENING, INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT FROM 15 TO 25 MPH
SUSTAINED, GUSTING TO 45 MPH. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE AND INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS SIGNAL SOME DECENT 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH MOISTENING PROFILERS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES. CONSENSUS SFC TEMPS LEND TO DECENT
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE MOSTLY ALL RAIN, WITH NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY INCREASE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED, GUSTING
TO NEAR 50 MPH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY UP
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING AS VERY COLD
TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE TEENS. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS ARE NEAR ZERO BY
SATURDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS PASSING WITH THE
MAIN UPPER LOW MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. ANY IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE. A DRY FORECAST ENSUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
NO APPRECIABLE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS AFTER MONDAY
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS AS OBSERVED MID CLOUDS PASS THROUGH BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 10
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 10 KTS FROM THE WEST BEFORE VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA IN THE 05-07Z TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH (HIGHEST TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS)
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT VARIED AMONG GUIDANCE,
GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 28-35 PERCENT RANGE,
HOWEVER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER FROM 15 TO 25 MPH,
GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...PRIETO
FIRE WEATHER...PRIETO
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