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FXUS63 KTOP 091010
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
APPROACHING RECORD WARMTH.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY REACH HIGH TO VERY HIGH
CATEGORIES; THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL POSITION TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. HAIL AND WIND STILL APPEAR TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY HAZARDS ALONG WITH FLOODING CONCERNS.
- A COLD FRONT INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK MAY BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA BRIEFLY WITH A CHANCE FOR A
WINTRY MIX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST
24HRS. MAINLY QUASIZONAL WESTERLY FLOW RESIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS WITH A CUTOFF LOW STILL SPINNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAJA REGION. MOIST RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT POLEWARD AS A LEE TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE AND GULF RETURN HAS
STEADILY BEEN ONGOING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE RETURN SIDE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
TODAY, NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DECREASING
WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR AN IDEAL
EARLY MARCH DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP MAXT SLIGHTLY AS THE DATA SET SHOW ONLY A SMALL SPREAD
OVERALL WITH OUTLIERS BEING MINIMAL. WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING BETWEEN
15-20C BY THE MID AFTERNOON, A BUMP TO AT LEAST VERY CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK IF NOT REACHED. THUS, AT LEAST GOING
WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE SHOULD BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE
HIGH TO VERY HIGH RANGE. FURTHER DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL SEE THE PHASING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA REGION LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SHARPEN A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASE MOIST FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE DATA SETS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME TIME AND SPACE
OVERLAPPING OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT -
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS - TO WARRANT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NAEFS DATA HAS SHIFTED
THE MOIST ANOMALY A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST DURING THE 12Z CYCLE. WITH
PWS STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS WITH ANY
TRAINING STORMS STILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK DEPENDS ON THE SURFACE FRONT AND HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST IT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE BY THE TIME THE EML WOULD ERODE
AND THUS THE TRADITIONAL "CAP" WOULD BE BREACHED. OVERALL, SHEAR
VECTORS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WHICH
WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO MORE STORM INTERACTIONS MORE QUICKLY. THIS MAY
LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY OF ANY SINGLE STORM IF MORE INTERACTIONS
BEGIN SOONER. REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECTING A HAIL AND WIND THREAT
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THEN TRANSITION TO A FLOODING THREAT
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER OVERALL WITH A QUICK
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITONS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE BEST DAY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. AGAIN, SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
SPREADS IN TEMPERATURES WIDEN GREATLY BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL AND POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
MIXING INCREASES SOON AFTER SUNRISE AND THE LLJ WEAKENS LEAVING
PRIMARILY A WIND FORECAST STILL IN PLAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MOIST FLOW CONTINUES TO RETURN INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS
COULD FORM BENEATH THE INVERSION LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS ISN'T YET A CONCENSUS SO HAVE
ONLY GONE WITH THE MORE LIKELY HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TODAY, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL RATES WITH
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING IN PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE WSW AND GENERALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO MID AFTERNOON
AND CALM INTO THE EVENING WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 20
MPH FOR MOST LIMITING OVERALL FIRE DANGER. MINRH VALUES TO THE LOW
20 PERCENT RANGES OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGES
OVER THE EAST.
A FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH OVERALL WEAK WINDS
IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THE LIKELY POSITION OF THE
DEVELOPING FRONT. OVER EAST-CENTRAL AREAS, WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGER AND DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THE OFFSET BY INCREASING
MOISTURE BRINGING MINRH VALUES TO 40-50 PERCENT RANGES.
THURSDAY MAY BRING THE NEXT MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
AFTERNOON, SW WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING TO HELP OVERLAP WITH LOW MINRH VALUES TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LOWER OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RH VALUES OVER EASTERN AREAS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGES
BUT ALL AREAS MAY STILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
MARCH 9 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST HIGH
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TOPEKA 80, SET IN 1986 79
CONCORDIA 81, SET IN 1986 79
MARCH 10 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST HIGH
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TOPEKA 84, SET IN 1967 81
CONCORDIA 84, SET IN 2025 70
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE
FIRE WEATHER...DRAKE
CLIMATE...DRAKE/POAGE
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