308
FXUS63 KTOP 270841
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPER OFF TODAY. THEN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
- STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD 1-3" TOTALS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST. HIGHS STAY NEAR AVERAGE, LOWS ABOVE
AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK, ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING SHEARED OUT, STUCK
BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE DEEP UPPER LOW
FUELING THE NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WE STILL HAVE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. CAN'T RULE
OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW KEEPS SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE AROUND, BUT FOR THE MOST PART
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED
EASTERLY FLOW AND AT LEAST BROKEN CLOUD COVER, HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW LOOK TO STAY GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK, PICKING UP HURRICANE POLO AND BRINGING
ITS REMNANTS NORTHEAST. EVEN WITHOUT THE HURRICANE REMNANTS, THE
PATH OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF PWAT APPROACHING 2", SUPPORTIVE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WHEN
COMBINED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE THE
BETTER SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL END UP. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT
THE HEAVIER RAIN MAY COME IN TWO SEMI-DISTINCT ROUNDS. THE FIRST OF
THESE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF POLO AS IT LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN TX AND
KS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN (AN AXIS OF 2-5") WITH THIS ROUND IS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER
IT STILL LOOKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN (PERHAPS
1-3") TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS CENTRAL KS.
THE SECOND ROUND THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WITH A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT. POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS ACROSS THE WEEK HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVER 1", WITH LREF 1" PROBABILITIES OVER 90
PERCENT AREA-WIDE. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR A MOST-LIKELY AMOUNT, WHILE 90TH PERCENTILES STILL
SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY SEE 4-6". GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER, EXPECTING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND COOL DAYTIME HIGHS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DROP OFF AS WE SEE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS, AND WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH
TOWARDS THE MAIN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK ACTIVITY
WILL STAY GENERALLY WEAK AND SCATTERED, SO STICKING WITH A VCSH
MENTION FOR NOW. SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
MORE COMMON. ANY OF THIS LOWER STRATUS MAY RISE AND BECOME MORE
BROKEN LATER IN THE DAY, BUT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING,
EXPECTING LOWER CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND IN SOME FASHION THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...REESE
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