327
FXUS63 KTOP 281940
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
140 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE.
- A MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE
EXPECTED, BUT COULD STILL CREATE SOME SLICK SPORTS.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PER THE 19Z WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA. SURFACE OBS HAD AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. NORTH OF THIS WAS A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POISED TO ADVECT SOUTH ONCE THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE WINTRY MIX EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE COMING INTO LINE WITH SIMILAR TEMP
PROFILES. AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD, WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE INITIALLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT
GRADUALLY CHANGES TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING DEPENDING
ON SURFACE TEMPS. MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO GET BETWEEN AN TENTH AND
A HALF INCH OF PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN THING WORKING AGAINST A MORE IMPACTFUL
WINTER EVENT IS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ITSELF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW WEAK IF ANY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. SO AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING THIS
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. ADDITIONALLY PRECIP
FALLING FROM THE WARM NOSE INTO THE SHALLOW COLD AIR COULD MODERATE
SURFACE TEMPS AND LIMIT ICE ACCUMULATION. ALL TOGETHER THE MOST
LIKELY FORECAST HAS AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW AND LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE, MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AS SEVEN DAY AVERAGES
OF GROUND TEMPS FROM THE K-STATE MESONET REMAIN AROUND 40 DEGREES.
SO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE
WITH UNTREATED SURFACES BECOMING SLIPPERY. ANY RISK TO MAJOR
INFRASTRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LOW. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE DECIDED IT WAS A GOOD IDEA TO PUT OUT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. INITIALLY
IT LOOKED LIKE THE BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIP ENDED AROUND 06Z. BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC SURFACES SUGGESTS SOME CONTINUED
LIFT WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK AND CONTINUED DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE ADVISORY IS
POSTED UNTIL MID-MORNING MONDAY WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM AND
TO GIVE A HEADS UP FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THE CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/RAIN COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY HOLDING TEMPS DOWN. BECAUSE OF THIS I WENT A LITTLE COOLER
FOR HIGHS THAN WHAT THE NBM HAD. FOR SOME REASON THE NBM HAS SOME
VERY AGGRESSIVE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW LITTLE IF ANY FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER THE DEEP
STRATUS DECK WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP. NORMALLY I WOULDN'T
HAVE SUCH HIGH POPS FOR MAINLY A DRIZZLE FORECAST. BUT THE HIGH POPS
ARE A RESULT OF MOST INPUTS TO THE NBM HAVING MEASURABLE PRECIP. SO
HAVE LEFT THE CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
THOUGH THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS WAVE AND
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING PRECIP IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN IT OTHERWISE
WOULD BE. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER CHANCES SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WAVE. TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AND THERE ARE EVEN SIGNS FOR
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE SOME KIND OF SURFACE WAVE OR FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES
WITH SOME POPS, THE BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
MILD AND PRECIP TYPE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THIS MORNING SHOULD BE REPLACED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS DOESN'T BEGIN UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS OF SUNDAY. SO WILL KEEP A VFR FORECAST
GOING DUE TO DRY AIR AND LIMITED FORCING. ALTHOUGH I WOULD EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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