897
FXUS63 KTOP 292331
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-RECORD HIGHS FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
-ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS A CONCERN EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK.
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN, WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW IS INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TODAY, HELPING TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WAA IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH 1000-500
MB THICKNESSES STEADILY INCREASING. THUS, TEMPERATURES ARE ON
THEIR WAY UP INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT
RECORD TERRITORY, BUT IS WELL ABOVE OUR LATE MARCH AVERAGES IN
THE LOW 60S. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW (SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) WHEN A CONTINUED WARM LOW LEVEL PATTERN
ALLOWS TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH AS NBM SPREAD IS LOW, RANGING FROM 87 DEGREES TO 92
DEGREES FOR THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. FIRE DANGER BECOMES
MORE ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON
RH, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS.
A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEAST KS. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS,
WITH MOST FAVORING A MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROPA. TEMPERATURES
ARE A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION AND WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE FRONT,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH ON ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
DAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WHERE MODEL SHOW
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AVERAGE LREF QPF
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGES FROM 0.25" TO 0.50" SOUTHEAST OF THE
TURNPIKE, WHILE THE MEAN NBM OUTPUT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
POPS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL WAVE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TO
NEAR I-35, WHICH IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD BE A TIMEFRAME FOR MORE
BENEFICIAL RAIN. NBM HAS AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1.0"
IN TOPEKA, AND A 50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.5". THESE PERCENTAGES
INCREASE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AROUND EMPORIA AND GARNETT.
POPS DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE OPEN-WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE AREA, AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
AVERAGE.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN EASTERN KS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING, THIS COULD
BE A BETTER SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS AS GUSTY SFC WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW 10 KTS BY 01Z.
LLWS IS STILL EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS COMMENCING AT 05Z AS A
45KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ DEVELOPS AT 1500 FT. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
MARGINAL AT KMHK SO OPTED TO KEEP OUT THE LLWS MENTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
NORTH TO KEEP MINIMUM RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY STILL CAUSE ANY FIRES TO BE
UNCONTROLLABLE WILD FIRES GIVEN THE DRY FUELS. TUESDAY WE WILL
SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH COULD MAKE
FIGHTING ANY GRASS FIRES MORE DIFFICULT WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
THE RANGELAND FIRE INDEX WILL ONLY BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY TODAY.
MONDAY, THERE MAY BE MORE AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, RHS
WILL BE HIGHER, AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 30:
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 85 (1943) 87
CONCORDIA 89 (1917) 87
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...GARGAN
CLIMATE...TEEFEY
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