277
FXUS63 KTOP 261719
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1119 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE MORNING OF HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS WITH THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY.
- A GRADUAL WARM-UP TAKES SHAPE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE WEEK (NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST
FEW DAYS) WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE A 1037MB SFC HIGH SITS RIGHT OVER THE STATE. MOST
OF THE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS
TREKKING JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEW SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES
ARE AT OR BELOW ZERO AREA-WIDE AS OF 3AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF -10 NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS ARE LIGHT
WITH THE SFC RIDGE IN PLACE, BUT EVEN SO, THEY HAVE LED TO WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -15 AND -20 ALREADY. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL NOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST, AND THE WAA SHOULD HELP TO BRING HIGHS TO THE 20S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. WINDS LOOK A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
THAT CLIPPER PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
TURNING OUR TEMPERATURE ADVECTION NEUTRAL FOR TUESDAY, THOUGH WE
LOOK SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY, HELPING EVERYONE TO SEE HIGHS
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY A WEEK. IT LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A MORE NOTABLE WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST THAT BRINGS STILL COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY. WHILE
THIS DOESN'T LOOK AS COLD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, IT IS FAVORED TO
BRING WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS FRIDAY
MORNING AS WELL. SNOW CHANCES ARE STILL LOW, BUT HAVE INCREASED TO
20-30% SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE GO FORWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR AT TERMINALS WITH CONCERN BEING SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
AROUND 15 KTS AT KTOP/KFOE, IN UPWARDS OF 18KTS SUSTAINED AT
KMHK. GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WANES BY 07Z. LLWS POTENTIAL REMAINS MARGINAL
AFT 00Z AS SFC WINDS REMAIN MIXED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE 45 KT LLJ AT 2KFT.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 246 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE JAN 26 FORECAST LOW
TOPEKA -10, SET IN 1904 -9
CONCORDIA -10, SET IN 1902 AND 1904 -7
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PRIETO
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/POAGE
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