280
FXUS63 KTOP 121123
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-A BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KS THIS
MORNING.
-THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
-TEMPERATURES ARE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER
WEATHER ANTICIPATED BEHIND A LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A BATCH OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS IN OK AND TX WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MINOR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
FLOODING IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
FORECAST, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WILL LIKELY ONLY RECEIVE
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM, BUT THERE STILL ISN'T AN
OBVIOUS LIFTING MECHANISM TO GET STORMS GOING. THUS, HAVE
DECREASED POPS TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, IF A STORM GETS GOING, IT COULD
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. IN THAT CASE, THE THREAT WOULD STAY VERY
ISOLATED.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE DRY WITH NO APPARENT WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE
DANGER MAY BE MORE OF THE CONCERN IN CENTRAL KS BEHIND WHERE A
DRYLINE SETS UP. RH BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. FIRE HEADLINES FOR OUR
CWA ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE GREEN UP THAT IS OCCURRING.
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CO ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STORMS
MAY FORM IN EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING OVER
2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND AROUND 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN FAR
EASTERN KS WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. THAT ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO
MO AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A MORE
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT SYSTEM
PROGRESSING QUICKLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. STORMS
COULD AGAIN FORM NEAR AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY AT THAT
TIME, BRINGING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH AND IMPACTS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE
MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR PRECIPITATION ONSET AT THE TOPEKA
TERMINALS IS AROUND 14Z. THE CHANCE FOR TS REMAINS LOW (AROUND
20%), SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST RA MENTION FOR NOW. RAIN EXITS
TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY, BUT MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
IN EASTERN KS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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