546  
FXUS63 KTOP 291716  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1216 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE  
DANGEROUS HEAT, FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES  
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
TODAY, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WE REMAIN  
UNDER THE CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, BUT ALSO EXPERIENCE  
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND MOISTURE POOLING AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH  
OUT OF NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, COUPLED WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WILL RESULT IN  
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. AS A COLD  
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM NEBRASKA, AN ISOLATED STORM MAY  
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS, NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. IF  
ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND  
HEAVY RAIN.  
 
FRIDAY, THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER GETS SQUEEZED A BIT  
FURTHER SOUTH AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE RIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN  
PERIPHARY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE, COMBINED WITH THE SHARPENING  
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR  
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MOVES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL  
DETERMINE HOW HOT NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KANSAS GETS AND HOW HIGH  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE. THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS  
THE FRONT REACHING THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER  
90S TO LOW 100S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH  
OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS COULD BE THE HIGHEST YET THIS WEEK AS  
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN  
ANOTHER HOT DAY, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.  
 
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST  
NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z, THEN DECREASING AND BACKING TO THE SOUTH  
SOUTHWEST.  
 

 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR  
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JONES  
AVIATION...53  
 
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