968
FXUS63 KTOP 132321
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS.
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM 70-80 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND FORECAST RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE AREAS OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
- AS THE MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, UPPER AIR PATTERN
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON EXHIBITS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES COMING OFF THE CO ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERING THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOW 70S. THE MORNING'S MCV OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
HAS COMPLICATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
RESULTING IN A DELAY IN RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS
ADVECTING NORTHWARD BY MID AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A SECONDARY MCS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS, PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
AS EARLY AS 1-2 PM. IN TERMS OF THE COLD FRONT, LACK OF STRONGER
CONVERGENCE AND SLOWER TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY ON SOME OF THE CAMS
HAS LED TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND JUST
AHEAD OF REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THAT MLCAPE
QUICKLY INCREASES ABOVE 2500 J/KG BETWEEN 3-9 PM WHILE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS ADEQUATE AT 35-40 KTS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED
STORM INITIATION TO OCCUR NEAR A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS EARLY
AS 1 PM, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 5-9 PM AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST. INITIALLY, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. SFC WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING, INCREASING LOW LEVEL SRH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES. FURTHER INTO THE EVENING, BRIEF SPIN UP
TORNADOES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS ARE POSSIBLE AS 0-3 KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS WITH THE LLJ.
IN TERMS OF FLOODING, SPARSER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY LIMIT THE
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR FLOODING. HOWEVER AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A
CLUSTER/LINE, PWAT VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES WHILE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ENHANCES TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. RAINFALL RATES OF
2-3 INCHES/HR STILL SEEM REASONABLE, HOWEVER MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED
DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, PROGGED TO END BY 6 AM SUNDAY,
PERHAPS EARLIER IN THE MORNING AS STORMS CLEAR OUT.
THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, AS
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 70S WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. LOWS TO START THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY ARE IN THE 50S BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY. LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
MIDWEST NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE REGION.
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DEVELOP AN
OVERNIGHT MCS TUESDAY EVENING TOWARDS CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME MAY ALSO BE
THE IMPETUS FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER ONCE AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MAINTAINED THE PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME FOR TSRA ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DUE TO THE CLEAR SEPARATION AND STORM MOTION ONGOING OVER NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND BACK OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS. IF THE LINE SHOWS TRENDS
OF MERGING THEN WILL LIKELY GO PREVAILING BUT CONFIDENCE WILL ONLY INCREASE
AS THIS TAKES PLACE - IF IT DOES INDEED TAKE PLACE. STILL ACCOUNTING FOR
A PERIOD OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 08-09Z TIME FRAME WITH VCSH AS TRENDS FOR OVERALL THUNDER POTENTIAL
SHOULD TREND DOWN DRAMATICALLY AS THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED STORMS PUSH
THROUGH. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD WITH A FEW GUSTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE IMMEDIATE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR PUSH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ026-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...DRAKE
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