413
FXUS63 KTOP 120915
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
READINGS IN THE 60S. GUSTY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY EVENING, RETURNING NEAR SEASONAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW
OVERALL, FOCUSING ON ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STREAMING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN NE
TO IOWA. THESE CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS THEY ENTER NORTHEAST
KANSAS, WHILE SFC WINDS ARE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH.
LATEST MOS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH STRONGER DOWNSLOPING FLOW AT H925, MIXING TEMPS FROM 10-12C TO
THE SFC AREA WIDE. HIGHS THEREFORE WERE TRENDED UPWARD BY A FEW
DEGREES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. IF THESE READINGS COME
TO FRUITION, IT IS LIKELY HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE CLOSER TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S AS A 925 MB 15C THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SPREADS
THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE THERMAL AXIS, THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TUESDAY EVENING, ENHANCING CAA WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
FROM 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED. MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN A MIDLEVEL
PERTURBATION TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING, ALBEIT DIFFER IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE HIGH SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLES.
UNFORTUNATELY, PRECIP PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. A STRONGER CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, CARRYING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IN TIME FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS SWING ONCE AGAIN, BUT THIS TIME BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOW
LYING AREAS MAY DEVELOP PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE
IF HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR AND WINDS CALM COMPLETELY TO ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW
CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PRIETO
AVIATION...DRAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page