052
FXUS63 KTOP 230517
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1217 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-35%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST
CHANCES (30-60%) COME TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR-NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE EXITED AND CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
GOOD INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPARK CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST,
APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 5-7 AM SUNDAY. GIVEN
HOW TODAY'S SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERED LONGER THAN CAMS SUGGESTED,
HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER TO MATCH CLOSER TO THE HRRR, WHICH HAD
THE BEST HANDLE ON TODAY'S PRECIPITATION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH LIFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO
BE SEVERE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING
MONDAY. MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS PROGGED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL LEAD TO INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE
STRONGEST WAVE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES HOLD NEAR-NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 FOR KMHK WHERE CHANCES STILL APPEAR TO
BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FURTHER EAST AT KTOP/KFOE. IF RAIN
APPROACHES, AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AT ALL SITES ONCE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON TIMING. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF RAIN AND SFC WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 KTS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...TEEFEY
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