999
FXUS63 KTOP 240547
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1247 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- RAIN LARGELY COMES TO AN END SUNDAY WITH LOW-END RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER FRIDAY AND LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, COMING OUT
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A SFC LOW HAS BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN CO IN RESPONSE TO THAT SYSTEM. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
ON SATELLITE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWESTERN KS, WHICH
COULD CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING. A
MODEST LLJ LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 03-06Z TONIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LIFT WITHIN THE WAA REGIME,
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL KS
LATER THIS EVENING. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS. OVERALL, INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES, BUT A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF 500+
J/KG MUCAPE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
CAMS SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE AREA MAY BE DRY FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS COVERAGE
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE POSITION OF THE 850MB LOW PLACES
THE AREA IN A LOCATION FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REALLY DROPS OFF DURING THE DAY, SO
MAINLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS TIME. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PLACE US IN THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE WAVE.
THERE SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, BUT IT LOOKS SHORT-LIVED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH NOT FAR
BEHIND. THERE ARE NOTABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT, WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN COOL INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN
THE 50S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND RAIN. SOME LOW 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEK'S SYSTEM LEADS TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS LIKE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, WHICH
COULD THEN HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EXPECT MORE COMPLETE SATURATION TO TAKE
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. STEADY RAIN SHOULD RESULT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH INTENSITY INCREASING NEAR SUNRISE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY AND MAY
INCREASE ABOVE 10KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE RAIN CLEARS TO
THE EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR TO DEVELOP AND MAY LOWER TO LIFR
DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE THIS FAR NORTH, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...DRAKE
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