168
FXUS63 KTOP 111040
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES (60-80%) COMING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH REMNANTS OF ISAIAS LIFTING NORTH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL APPROACHING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BETWEEN ALL OF THESE FEATURES,
LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS. EXPECTING
ALMOST A CARBON-COPY OF YESTERDAY FOR TODAY, EXCEPT WITH SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL GUST AT 25-35 MPH AND
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. ELEVATED WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPERATURES BUILD OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
PREDICTABILITY DECREASES DRAMATICALLY BEYOND MONDAY. GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY, BUT THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT;
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
BUT ONLY AROUND 70 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
BETTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT TO GO ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AND MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INCONSISTENCY AND VARIABILITY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CLOSED LOW. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY A 50-50
SPLIT AMONG GEFS, ENS, AND GEPS MEMBERS: ONE-HALF HOLDS THE CLOSED
LOW WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE OTHER HALF
MOVES AN OPEN WAVE TOWARDS THE PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND
TOWARDS THE WAVE NOT ENTIRELY EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
REMAINING FARTHER WEST. REGARDLESS OF EXACT EVOLUTION, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION ALONG PASSING ENERGY (EITHER IN
THE FORM OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OR EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW) WILL SPARK ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN LEADS TO VERY LOW MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY. PWATS OF
1.5-1.75" ARE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR TOTAL
RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY ARE 0.5-1.5" WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER-END OF GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-3" TOTALS IN SOME SPOTS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLOODING. NEED TO SEE GUIDANCE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE BECOMING TOO CONCERNED WITH THE
FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE POTENTIAL.
A STRONG WAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN US LATE THIS WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL BACK TO
MORE SEASONABLE VALUES, DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH
COOLER IT WILL BE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS MAY DROP OFF FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN. A STRONGER LLJ TONIGHT
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS, ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF
SURFACE GUSTS. HAVE KEPT GUSTS AND LEFT OUT LLWS FOR NOW, BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
OCTOBER 11 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
----------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 94, SET IN 1975 88
CONCORDIA 94, SET IN 1975 90
OCTOBER 12 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 93, SET IN 1899 AND 2024 92
CONCORDIA 93, SET IN 1899 93
OCTOBER 13 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
----------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 91, SET IN 1975 90
CONCORDIA 90, SET IN 1975 84
RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION:
OCTOBER 11 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
----------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 68, SET IN 1928 65
CONCORDIA 70, SET IN 1928 69
OCTOBER 12 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
--------------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 68, SET IN 1890 AND 1899 70
CONCORDIA 67, SET IN 1975 72
OCTOBER 13 CURRENT RECORD FORECAST
---------------------------------------------------------
TOPEKA 69, SET IN 1962, 1968, AND 1975 70
CONCORDIA 70, SET IN 1920 65
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN/POAGE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page