509
FXUS63 KTOP 281144
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
544 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LINGERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN IMPACTS FROM A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
STILL NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT AREAS THAT WILL SEE WHICH TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO POTENTIALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN
TOWARDS EASTERN KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS NOTED IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN EASTERN NM AND WEST TX,
WHILE ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN WESTERN NE. AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH SITS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
THE WAA REGIME IN COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
CAMS DON'T APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS THE BEST
WITH RESPECT TO THESE SHOWERS, BUT THEY ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING IN EAST
CENTRAL KS, JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE AS THE
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THIS DOESN'T SEEM TOO FAR
FETCHED OF AN IDEA, BUT THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY KEEPS
CONFIDENCE LOW AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET FOR AREAS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER. THEY MAY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON IF CAA TAKES HOLD SOON ENOUGH.
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE 60S WITH
SOME 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT
WITH CAA LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING,
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THEN STRONG WAA TAKES SHAPE AT
850MB THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONGSIDE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT. THIS
ALL SETS THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY MESSY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEEING TRAVEL
IMPACTS FROM A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE ARE STILL A
LOT OF QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED AS TO WHICH TYPES WILL OCCUR WHERE.
IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW
LEVELS, AND THAT IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE CAM GUIDANCE THAT IS NOW
WITHIN RANGE. STILL, THAT DRY AIR IS THE BIGGEST FACTOR LEADING TO
THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST, AND THE DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURES AMONG THE GUIDANCE IS THE NEXT BIGGEST FACTOR. BOTH THE
00Z AND 06Z HRRR RUNS SHOW SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR IN THIS REGARD, WHEREAS
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST SOLUTION WITH THE EURO SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO STILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
LEADING TO THIS QUESTION: WHAT ABOUT WET BULB EFFECTS AND WHAT WILL
THAT DO TO P-TYPE? HRRR SOUNDINGS STILL TRY TO HANG ONTO THE DRY AIR
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SO IT WOULD ALSO BE FAIR TO QUESTION WHETHER
THIS COULD FURTHER DELAY THE START TIME. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
INDEED START BY MID-AFTERNOON, IT WOULD SEEM THAT WET BULB COOLING
WOULD HAVE TO OCCUR. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS POTENTIAL
EXISTS. AS IT STANDS CURRENTLY, PARTS OF LYON, COFFEY, AND ANDERSON
COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, BUT
THOSE AREAS STILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX. AREAS NEAR THE
KS/NE BORDER ARE COLDER AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY AREA TO
SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS UNDER 50%, BUT THE FOCUS APPEARS TO
BE IN THE CENTER OF THE CWA ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND PLACES JUST
NORTH AND SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENING. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES THE REST OF THE
WEEK BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND FORTUNATELY
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AND WOULD FAVOR
RAINFALL. AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AS WELL AS INSTABILITY COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATING BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN LOCATIONS. DETAILS ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS WILL GET WORKED OUT
AS WE GET CLOSER TO EACH PASSING WAVE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AREA,
SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS AS NECESSARY BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. CAMS HAVE HANDLED THE TIMING OF THESE RATHER
POORLY, SO AM BASING THE TIMING IN TAFS ON CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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