086
FXUS63 KTOP 172317
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY AFTER A FEW MORNING FLURRIES
PASS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM WITH RETURN FLOW AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE THE BALANCE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- LARGE SPREAD REMAINS WITH ANY WEATHER SYSTEM POTENTIAL
IMPACTING THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
OVERALL, THERE HAS BEEN AND REMAINS LITTLE IMMEDIATE CHANGE IN
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. A BROAD AND
DEEP TROUGH HANGS ON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AS
WELL.
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE WITH WEAK CAA
CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS FINALLY RELAX INTO THIS
EVENING. FLURRIES HAVE MOSTLY SUBSIDED ACROSS THE ARE WITH AREAS OF
SATURATION MORE SHALLOW ALONG WITH WANING LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED
LAYER. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY LOW TO MID CLOUDS HANGING ON
ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM BKN TO SCT AND SHOULD TREND CLEAR INTO
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S. BY
EARLY MORNING ON SUNDAY AROUND SUNRISE INTO MID-MORNING, THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE REGION FROM
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT. WITH DRY SUBCLOUD AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET, EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES IF ANYTHING CAN BE PRODUCED IN A
SATURATED LAYER ALONG WITH LIFT PRODUCED BY THE ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. UNLIKELY, THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO
ENTER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF ARRIVAL IS EARLIER AND MORE
STRATUS HANGS AROUND TEMPERATURES MAY BE TO OPTIMISTICALLY HIGH FOR
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. RIGHT NOW, LOOKING TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S FOR TOMORROW.
MONDAY, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE
CELL EXPANDS INTO THE AREA AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
ONLY RISE FROM THE 10S TO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVEN
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THE PATTERN OVERALL BEGINS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE WITH SOUTHWEST RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY HELPING TO WARM BACK TO AROUND NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK WITH A MORE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING. FOR NOW, TOO MUCH SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE
AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS EXIST TO HAVE MORE THAN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EVEN THE MENTION OF A WINTER SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WIDE RANGE EXISTS FROM A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MERGES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NOTHING AT ALL WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...JONES
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