465
FXUS63 KTOP 272002
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
202 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- TURNING SHARPLY COLDER AND WINDY SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX POSSIBLE
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THEN A LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN SPOTS. LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY
GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KS WITH THE EFFECTIVE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ENE THROUGH CONCORDIA INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT THE LLJ WILL INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ WILL TARGET NORTHEAST KS WITH THE STRONGEST WAA/LIFT
AFTER 3Z WHERE PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE FCSTS
SHOW 250J/KG OR MORE STAYING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE EMPORIA TO
LAWRENCE LINE SO ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THOSE
AREAS IF PARCELS CAN REACH THE LFC. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK TOWARD THE TOP AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE.
AS THE LOW TRACKS ENE EXPECT A STRONG PRESSURE SURGE WITH STRONG
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MODEST 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH A SATURATED LOWEST 700MB LAYER
MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE PERHAPS BECOMING
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW BRIEFLY AS THE AIR TEMPS PLUMMET
BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS
OCCURRING WOULD BE ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 IN THE MORNING WITH SOME
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF EITHER SNOW
OR ICE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND IMPACTS MAY ALSO BE MITIGATED BY
THE INITIALLY WARM GROUND TEMPS.
NORTHWEST WINDS/PRESSURE SURGE AND GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH SO
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALL AREAS FOR TOMORROW.
THE LOW SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY QUICKLY WITH ANY PRECIP EXPECTED
TO END ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH DRY, WINDY AND MUCH
COLDER WEATHER FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 06Z WHEN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AND COULD CAUSE SOME VIS ISSUES DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF
PRECIP. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE SOUTHEAST OF
THE TOP/FOE SITES SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SITES IN THE 10Z TO
12Z TIME FRAME ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AT
LEAST 30KTS WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 250 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
RECORD FORECAST
DEC 27 HIGH TOPEKA 71 (1946) 68
CONCORDIA 63 (1928, 1976) 64
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...OMITT
AVIATION...OMITT
CLIMATE...GRIESEMER/POAGE
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