546
FXUS63 KTOP 291716
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DANGEROUS HEAT, FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TODAY, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WE REMAIN
UNDER THE CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, BUT ALSO EXPERIENCE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND MOISTURE POOLING AS A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, COUPLED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. AS A COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM NEBRASKA, AN ISOLATED STORM MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS, NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. IF
ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY, THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER GETS SQUEEZED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE RIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHARY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE, COMBINED WITH THE SHARPENING
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MOVES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DETERMINE HOW HOT NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KANSAS GETS AND HOW HIGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE. THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS
THE FRONT REACHING THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS COULD BE THE HIGHEST YET THIS WEEK AS
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONT. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER HOT DAY, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SOUTHWEST
NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z, THEN DECREASING AND BACKING TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...53
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