939
FXUS63 KTOP 251950
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
250 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD SETTING WARMTH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON &
TOMORROW (THURSDAY).
-EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TOMORROW, SO A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
-A FEW LOCATIONS COULD (50-60% CHANCE) SEE A RAIN SHOWER OR
STORM TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT.
-A BRIEF LATE WEEK COOL DOWN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BIG
WARM UP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THERE IS A LOT TO HIGHLIGHT AGAIN IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION,
WITH EXTREME EARLY SPRING HEAT AND FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THURSDAY -- SEE DETAILS IN THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FEATURES AN EXPANSIVE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN MEXICO.
THAT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR
90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW, LIKELY
SETTING RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN TOMORROW AS A SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW. THE
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE FROM NBM FOR HIGHS RANGE FROM 96 TO 99
DEGREES FOR TOP, WITH THE GOING FORECAST CLOSER TO THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR NOW. IF TOP EXCEEDS 95 DEGREES, WE WILL SET
ANOTHER RECORD FOR HOTTEST TEMP IN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH,
JUST DAYS AFTER INITIALLY ACCOMPLISHING THAT LAST WEEKEND!
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINE TO CREATE EXTREME FIRE DANGER
TOMORROW, AND AS ALREADY MENTIONED, A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAYS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AGAIN BEHIND IT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, MAINLY IN EAST-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
AND UNFORTUNATELY, QPF IS LOW WITH ONLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH EXPECTED WHERE RAIN OCCURS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE SEASONABLY
APPROPRIATE. DEW POINTS WILL DROP DRASTICALLY, WHICH WILL AGAIN
CREATE FIRE CONCERNS WITH RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY (NOT UNCOMMON FOR MARCH),
SO FIRE HEADLINES WILL BE STRONGLY CONSIDERED. TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS BEFORE DECREASING NEAR
SUNSET. TONIGHT, A LLJ WILL CREATE LLWS CONDITIONS WITH 40 KTS
AROUND 1 KFT. SFC GUSTS THEN PICK BACK UP A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AND VFR PREVAILS.
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SPARSE AND/OR QPF REMAINS LOW WHERE POPS DO
EXIST TOMORROW, AS WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH
VALUES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS, CONCERNS
CONTINUE FOR WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER AND FIRE BEHAVIOR. A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR RFW CRITERIA, MAINLY IN
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL
COMPLICATE THE FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS WITH GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND HOT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT, THEN A SHIFT TO GUSTY
NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY).
WINDS STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RH RECOVERY
WON'T BE DRAMATIC DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY,
AND DAYTIME RH WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. SUCH LOW RH
TENDS TO EXACERBATE FIRE BEHAVIOR, EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE
20-25 MPH RANGE. OVERALL CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE FAR
FROM IDEAL FOR PRESCRIBED BURNING.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 25
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 91 (1907) 91
CONCORDIA 92 (1907) 94
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH 26
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 85 (1910, 1991) 95
CONCORDIA 86 (1907) 87
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ054.
DISCUSSION...TEEFEY
AVIATION...TEEFEY
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...FLANAGAN
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