881
FXUS63 KTOP 211909
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
209 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
- MILD WEATHER IS CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE MSLP SLOWLY FELL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER DYNAMICS COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT THEY ALSO
SHOW SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS WITH DECENT
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
OCCURRING WITH A COOL AND DAMP AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 C/KM. BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE LOW.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES COMBINED WITH THE WEAK RIDGE MOVING IN
LATE FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL. HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S.
THE 00Z ENSEMBLES SHOWED A BETTER SIGNAL FOR DRY WEATHER THAN NOT ON
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE. AND THE NBM ALSO
KEEPS POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. SPREADS IN THE ENSEMBLES
ARE GENERALLY PRETTY NARROW BETWEEN THE TWENTY FIFTH AND SEVENTY
FIFTH PERCENTILES INDICATING RELATIVELY GOOD PREDICTABILITY. SO
DON'T SEE MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM/WPC FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED. OVERALL MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A SUMMER TIME
PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP. THIS SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN THE 00Z ENSEMBLE DATA. SO THE FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK THANKS TO THE HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LACK OF
SURFACE FRONTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AROUND SUNRISE.
CAMS KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
MARGINALLY BETTER FORCING IMPACTING THE AREA AROUND 12Z. MAY INCLUDE
A PROB30 FOR LIGHT SHRA AFTER 12Z.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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