148
FXUS63 KTOP 261103
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
603 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018
VERY SEASONAL AND PLEASANT WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.
CURRENT WV LOOPS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
COMPLEX OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WITHIN AN AREA OF
ASCENT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE COLD BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN AREA OF MODIFIED CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DECREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE AND CALM WINDS, ALONG WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION, HAS ALLOWED FOR A VERY COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
INTO THE DAY TODAY, A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND A VERY
PLEASANT 70 DEGREES. WEAK RETURN SETS UP INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER INTO THE UPPER 40S. A
DRY FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A BROAD LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THURSDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN KS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT EAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A SHORTER WAVE LENGTH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF WEST CENTRAL CANADA AND
AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLANS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE A SURFACE FRONT TO RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER FROPA,
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME STEADY OR FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS ON FRIDAY AND
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OF SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE STRONGER
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AS A
SECOND H5 TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US AND WILL EXTEND FROM TX, NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.
THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS SUNDAY MORNING WILL UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS AND
RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGHS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE 60S WITH THE RICHER GULF
MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW A WEAK FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE FIRST H5 TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, SO THERE
COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED SEP 26 2018
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY
VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MIFG WILL LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT THE KTOP
TERMINAL. HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DRAKE
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...DRAKE
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