046
FXUS63 KTOP 221131
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD, ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -
15 TO -20 DEGREES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED STARTING FRIDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- SNOW TO BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING, CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE OVERALL HAS INCREASED AND THUS EXPANDED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (EXCLUDING FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS)
- WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WITH LESSER TOTALS CLOSER TO
NORTHERN KANSAS. AREAS ALONG EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE
TOTALS CREEP TOWARDS THE 7- 10 INCH RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM IS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL CA AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED A LARGE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ENVELOPES MUCH OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS NOTED STREAMING IN FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WILL
BE SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT BRINGS A LARGE SWATH OF SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. IN THE SHORT-TERM, ONE MORE DAY OF MILD AND
DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID
40S.
A VERY NOTABLE CHANGE COMES THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH, PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 30S
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY PUSHING WIND CHILLS
WELL BELOW ZERO. FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70 FRIDAY, THE QUICKER
ONSET OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS WIND CHILLS AROUND - 15 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. BY THE EVENING, THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL GET ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO
-20 DEGREES EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ZERO INTO MONDAY (85-95% CHANCES) SO WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY DOWN THE LINE.
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REFLECT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WELL,
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0 AND -5 DEGREES. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE
LEAST RELIEF FROM THE COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT
GETTING ABOVE THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.
NOW LETS TALK SNOW... OVERALL CONSENSUS BETWEEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND NEW MID RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A NORTH-SHIFT IN HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS AND SLIGHTLY MORE QPF. AS OF NOW, ONE OF THE MAIN OUTLIERS
FOR QPF IS THE DETERMINIST GFS. EVEN THE GEFS AND AIGFS HAS TOTAL
QPF HIGHER BY 0.15-0.2" WHEN COMPARED TO THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION. THAT SAID, SNOWFALL RANGES STILL REMAIN REMAIN RATHER
LARGE. LET'S DIVE INTO WHERE THAT STEMS FROM. PAST RUNS IN MOST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACK; A SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONE COMING INTO PHASE WITH A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS PHASED WAVE ENTERS THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY MORNING, IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEUTRAL TILT LEADING TO
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM (IE.
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS). COUPLED JET DYNAMICS SHOULD
INCREASE UPPER AND MID LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AT
THE SAME TIME FRIDAY EVENING, THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL TRY TO BEGIN TO SATURATE AS 850MB AND 700MB
WAA INCREASES. THIS INITIAL DRY AIR MAY HOLD OFF INITIAL
PRECIPITATION UNTIL 9PM OR SO FRIDAY EVENING, BUT ONCE THE
LOWEST 700MB BECOMES MORE SATURATED, DECENT SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BECOME REALIZED. SNOW RATES IN THIS CASE ARE ON THE TRICKY SIDE
AS THERE WILL NOT BE ROBUST MESOSCALE DYNAMICS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. WE WILL LIKELY NEED HELP FROM JET DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR LIFT. LUCKILY, THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL KEEP SATURATED PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO REMAIN IN THE
DGZ THROUGH MOST OF THE CLOUD. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SLRS FOR THE
EVENT RANGING FROM 15:1-20:1 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RESPECTIVELY.
AS LONG THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT - SOMETHING THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS - LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY. THAT SAID, THE BEST
TIMEFRAME FOR THIS LIFT TO RESIDE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS WILL BE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MID SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
HINTS OF WEAKENING LIFT IN THE COLUMN COMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH ROTATES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS. THIS SHOULD MOVE A DEEPENED 850MB CYCLONE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR NORTH THIS BAND OF SNOW COULD GET WITH MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPING IT SOUTH OF I-70. THIS COULD FURTHER ADD TO
SNOW TOTALS AND MAY EVEN ADD THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
THE AREA GIVEN THE MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING.
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND WAVE BEGIN TO COME TO AN END BY
SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH SLRS, INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE OF
HIGHER QPF (NBM PROBS GIVE A 75-90% CHANCE TO EXCEED 0.25" AND A
50-70% CHANCE TO EXCEED 0.4" FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70)
AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WITH THE SYSTEM, EXPECTING MUCH OF THE AREA
TO SEE AT LEAST 4-5 INCHES ON THE LOWER END WITH AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70 POSSIBLY SEEING TOTALS UPWARDS OF 7-10 INCHES.
HAVE THUS EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL BUT
THE FURTHEST NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER.
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWPACK LINGERING INTO MONDAY AND MINIMAL
CHANGE IN FLOW, MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES
DIPPING BELOW ZERO. LUCKILY, A PATTERN CHANGE MOVES IN LATER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RETURNING WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS FREEZING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR TAFS PERSIST OVER THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN OVERHEAD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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