553
FNUS74 KSHV 200858
FWSSHV
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL ROCK WF...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0630 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (318) 631-3669 EXT. 241, IF YOU HAVE
QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ALTHOUGH WEATHER CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT, THE INTENSE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S.
DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
30-35 PERCENT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10
MPH. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR IN PLACE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS LATER TODAY. THEREFORE, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UNDER THESE CONDITIONS GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS HAVE BECOME
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. BY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND BRING SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. UNFORTUNATELY,
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO COME OUR WAY WITH THIS FRONT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT FORECAST START...MAX 95.
RH..................84 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE 7000
FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 3 TO 4 METERS/SECOND.
LVORI...............3.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 20 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 52 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 70 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 76
DECREASING TO 63 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........37 40 31 42 48 58 56 55 53 53 60 75
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............69 69 71 75 82 85 89 92 93 95 95 94
RH..............84 84 84 74 61 55 47 41 37 34 33 34
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND MPH..1 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5 3 3 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 3.5 4.9 5.9 6.6 7.0 6.6 6.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW S SW S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW S SW S S S S
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
DISPERSION IDX..4 8 6 16 23 47 56 67 73 77 74 63
LVORI...........5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 70.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH AROUND 4 METERS/SECOND DECREASING TO 3 TO
4 METERS/SECOND EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
DISPERSION INDEX....53 DECREASING TO 4.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........51 39 31 78 78 78 84 87 97 88 69 80
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............92 89 84 82 80 79 77 76 74 73 72 72
RH..............37 39 48 53 58 60 64 69 76 81 87 87
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE N N N N NW NW W NW N
20 FT WIND MPH..2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 5 5 7 7 12 9 8 8 8 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S N N N N N NW NW N NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 7 6
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S N N N N N NW NW N NW
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3
DISPERSION IDX..53 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 3 3
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 94.
RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.NORTHWEST 3 TO 4 METERS/SECOND.
LVORI...............4.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 43 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING TO 53 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 40.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........68 57 48 48 48 48 48 49 51 49 49 49
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............71 70 71 75 80 84 88 91 92 93 92 91
RH..............90 93 90 82 69 59 50 45 43 41 43 44
20 FT WIND DIR..NW N NW NW SW NW N N N NW NW NW
20 FT WIND MPH..1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 4.7 5.4 5.2 4.7 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 9
TRANS WIND DIR..NW NW NW N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4
DISPERSION IDX..4 8 6 6 14 22 39 47 54 52 41 39
LVORI...........6 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...HEMINGWAY
REQUESTED BY...K WILSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2622067.2/SHV
.DELDT 09/20/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOHN.WILSON2@USDA.GOV
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