700  
FNUS74 KSHV 131002  
FWSSHV  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK ANKLE RX COMP 66...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
502 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CDT ON OCTOBER 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (318) 631-3669 EXT. 241, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BUT, SOUTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM IN PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE  
REGION THIS MORNING WHICH HAS HELPED GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS,  
GENERALLY ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30  
CORRIDOR. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY REMAIN TODAY, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE  
OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.  
EXPECT 20 FT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 8-12 MPH AT TIMES, WITH  
GUSTS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. THIS WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 65  
TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MIXING  
HEIGHTS WITH VALUES BETWEEN 4000-5000 FEET TODAY.  
 
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS  
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALL JUST WEST OF THE  
FIRE DISTRICTS ON TOMORROW. HOWEVER, DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE  
ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF  
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAMELA MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE BEST RAIN  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO  
TEXARKANA, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FIRE  
DISTRICTS IN THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DRY  
AND MUCH COOLER FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........72 71 69 67 63 59 55 52 50 48 46  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 10 10 0 0 0 10 10 10 0 0  
TEMP............70 71 74 79 82 84 86 86 86 86 86  
RH..............100 100 90 79 69 65 59 59 59 59 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 7 9 10 9 8 7 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.9 4.6 4.4  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 18 20 20 20 20 18 18 17 17  
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........44 42 40 39 37 34 31 33 41 52 63 69  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............85 82 80 74 73 72 71 71 70 70 70 70  
RH..............63 69 74 90 93 97 97 97 100 97 97 97  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 14 17 17 17 15 13 12 12 12 10 9  
TRANS WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 6 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........72 74 76 77 78 78 77 75 71 67 65 66  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............10 20 20 20 20 20 20 50 50 50 50 50  
TEMP............70 70 70 73 77 80 81 83 84 84 85 83  
RH..............97 97 100 93 85 77 72 67 68 67 67 71  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.0  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SE S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 16 17 16 16 16 14 14 15 15  
TRANS WIND DIR..S S SE S S S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7  
 

 
FORECASTER...HILL  
REQUESTED BY...JOEY SILVA  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2119428.0/SHV  
.DELDT 10/13/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL JOEY.SILVA@USDA.GOV  
 
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