099
FXUS64 KSHV 191952
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
BROAD AREA OF UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SRN CONUS, WHICH RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT FCST PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE, WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 90S AT MOST SITES. HAVE
REMAINED CLOSE TO THE VERY REASONABLE NBM FOR TEMPS. DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES - NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY.
WEAK ELY WAVE MOVG ACROSS THE NRN GULF MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT TO GET A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS WWD INTO OUR FAR SE SATURDAY
AFTN, SO HAVE INCLUDED 20 POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. /12/
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FIRST OFF, SUNDAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES AGAIN IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. THE INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY RETROGRADING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE IN A POSITION
TO HELP INSTIGATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF TEXARKANA (AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA). IN THE LATTER AREAS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, BUT ELSEWHERE ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN
THE 92 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE.
FORTUNATELY, MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS QUITE GOOD ON THE ANTICIPATED
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS EVEN IS A SUBTLE
TREND TOWARD MORE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION,
WITH THE RESULTING DEEP NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION
IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PROBABLY
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE FRONT COMFORTABLY THROUGH THE FOUR STATE REGION.
MANY LOCATIONS WOULDN'T MIND A LITTLE RAIN AT THIS POINT AND THE
FRONT LOOKS TO KICK UP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY PASSES. INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION
STILL LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT TREND TOWARD OUR REGION
GETTING CLIPPED BY MORE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ENERGY MAY ALLOW
FOR JUST ENOUGH WIND SHEAR FOR PERIODIC LINEAR ORGANIZATION (WITH
PERHAPS SOME GUSTIER WINDS WITH ANY SUCH SEGMENTS). WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON TRENDS IN THIS REGARD.
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME COOLER AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR FOR
TUESDAY, PERHAPS LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. OF COURSE, THE MOST
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF I-20 - BUT EVEN SOUTHERN ZONES
WILL HAVE ENOUGH AIR MASS CHANGE TO BE EASILY NOTICEABLE. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S, WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE FRONT STALLED NEAR THE COAST LOOKS TO DRIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING. /50/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1249 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION, SOME BRIEF LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KLFK AS WELL. SLY WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10 KTS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PD. /12/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 20
MLU 75 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 30
DEQ 75 94 74 93 / 10 10 0 10
TXK 75 92 75 92 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 75 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 20
TYR 76 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 76 95 75 93 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 76 94 75 93 / 10 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
12/50
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