438  
FXUS64 KSHV 280152  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
852 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE  
SE TX COAST INTO CENTRAL MS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATED NEAR A  
HUNTSVILLE, TYLER TEXAS TO IDABEL OKLAHOMA LINE. TAKING A LOOK AT  
01Z TEMPS, TEMPERATURES NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR  
WERE EITHER AT THEIR FCST MIN TEMP OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW IT AS  
PATCHY FOG (DENSE IN SOME PLACES ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE) HAS  
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THEIR DEWPOINT  
TEMPERATURES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, WOULD  
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY BUT DID LOWER  
TEMPS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR JUST A FEW DEGREES.  
 
CONCERNING POPS, QUITE A SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO JUST HOW  
MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE OVERNIGHT AS THE HRRR IS TRENDING  
ON THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE 18Z NAM VERY WET WITH  
INCREASING PVA FROM THE SOUTH. FOR THE UPDATE, HAVE SHAVED POPS  
JUST SLIGHTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A TYLER TO EL DORADO LINE, STILL  
KEEPING POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT NORTH OF THIS LINE,  
KEEPING MIDDLE END CHANCE POPS GOING. FEEL LIKE ANY CHANCE OF  
SEEING ISOLATED TSRA WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT  
TOWARDS SUNRISE WED SO MADE THIS CHANGE AS WELL.  
 
ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN THE BALLPARK WITH A VERY WET DAY EXPECTED  
AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO  
APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020/  
 
AVIATION...  
 
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL ONLY DETIORATE AS WE GO THROUGH THE  
NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF  
PRECIPITATION AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS  
WELL AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES OUR AIRSPACE FROM THE  
WEST. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT DID INCLUDE SOME TSRA  
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE ON  
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME TO AN END  
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THIS TAF PERIOD  
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE TAIL END  
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 57 62 44 57 / 60 100 50 10  
MLU 58 70 48 61 / 60 100 70 10  
DEQ 50 57 43 54 / 40 90 80 10  
TXK 50 56 43 54 / 50 100 70 10  
ELD 51 60 45 57 / 60 90 80 10  
TYR 50 55 41 55 / 60 90 20 0  
GGG 54 58 42 57 / 60 90 30 0  
LFK 59 64 43 61 / 60 90 20 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
13/13  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page