974
FXUS64 KSHV 040022
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
722 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
- ANOTHER COOLER THAN AVERAGE SET OF LOWS AND HIGHS FOR MONDAY.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURNS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
- HEAT INDEX CALCULATIONS EDGING BACK TO AROUND 105 BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF US WILL
SEE ANOTHER ONE ON MONDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS KICKED IN GEAR FOR
MUCH OF LAST NIGHT AND THE RESULT IS SOME AMAZING DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE BACKDOOR AND JUST UPPER 60S AND
A FEW LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON OUR WESTERN FRINGE OF
COUNTIES IN E TX. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MIX A LITTLE
MORE EACH DAY AND AS WE SHIFT BACK TO E/SE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY,
EXPECT THE MUGGY AIR TO RESUME CLOSE TO WHERE WE LEFT IT LAST
WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE EXTREME HEAT WILL TAKE MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND
DRYING OUT, WITH OUR DEEPER SOIL TEMPS SLOWLY EDGING BACK TO
PRE-RAIN LEVELS OF LATE JULY. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT OFTEN TO HAVE
SUCH GREENERY IN LATE SUMMER, BUT THAT MAY START TO CHANGE IN
THESE COMING DOG DAYS OF SUMMER. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
NOT THAT FAR AWAY WITH SILENT 10S IN THE PRELIMS FOR TYLER,
LUFKIN AND DE QUEEN OVERNIGHT AS OUR BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH MORE
NW FLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER OK AND N TX. THIS IS EXTENDED
FROM A WEAK LOW OVER MO TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE ONE AND DONE, BUT
COULD NEED UPDATES FOR A BETTER PUSH.
SOME OF THE LEFT OVER NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER INTO
OUR WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY GOES TO THE WIND.
THEN THE SEA BREEZE FOR OUR DEEP SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE ALL WE SEE
MID WORK WEEK. THEN LATE WEEK AS SCHOOLS BEGIN, A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD QPF SIGNAL IS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DO EVEN
BETTER POOLING AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE LATE DAY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THIS NEXT COOL FRONT IS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE SHALLOW FOR THE
PLAINS AND WILL NOT BE LIKE THIS 1030 MB AIR STARTED OUT BEFORE
BRINGING US THE BREAK IN THE HEAT. THIS NEXT CANADIAN AIR MASS
WILL ONLY BE AROUND 1020MB. SO THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OUT OF OUR REACH. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
BETTER MID TO LATE MONTH AS THE CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION BUILDS
MORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR A LONGER LASTING FALL TOUCH. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION WEST OF THE AIRSPACE WILL BE THE
ONLY DISCUSSION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE AFTERNOON CU FIELD
HAS DISSIPATED. HIGH CLOUD TO SOME DEGREE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY ABOVE FL200. THAT BEING
SAID, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AIRSPACE AS ANOTHER
CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE TOMORROW. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE ETX TERMINALS, THOUGH A MIX
OF FEW/SCT WILL BE PRESENT TO THE EAST. TERMINAL WINDS WILL HOLD A
E/NE APPEARANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD, AROUND 5KT.
KNAPP
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR DAYS TO COME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 93 74 94 / 0 10 10 10
MLU 67 92 71 95 / 0 10 0 20
DEQ 66 88 67 92 / 10 20 0 0
TXK 68 92 71 95 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 64 90 67 93 / 0 10 10 20
TYR 72 90 72 94 / 10 40 10 10
GGG 69 91 71 94 / 0 20 10 10
LFK 72 94 71 95 / 10 20 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page