950
FXUS64 KSHV 232336
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
636 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- WEAK UPPER RIDGING HAS RESULTED IN DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY, BUT
A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING DAILY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO
DEVELOP, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
WEAK UPPER RIDGING HAS SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. HOWEVER, WE CONTINUE TO
GET A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WHICH HAS KEPT
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES ON THE
18Z SOUNDING WAS NEAR 1.2 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AND DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE MUCH DRIER
TODAY, THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HAS
YIELDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, AND SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO OUR
LOUISIANA ZONES AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
EAST TEXAS NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WE WILL SEE OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM SHAPING UP. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARDS OUR REGION. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHORT-TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ARRIVES ON OUR DOOR STEPS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO GET INTO OUR ZONES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-30 NEAR DAYBREAK, SO DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD TO AROUND THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OF UP TO 3000 J/KG IN PLACE, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLAY
AS THESE STORMS SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN STALLED AROUND THE SAME AFOREMENTIONED AREA ON
SATURDAY, WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. BUT, PROGS ARE DEVELOPING ANOTHER MCS THAT
WOULD PUSH DOWNSTREAM BACK INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY IS WHERE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. LONG-TERM MODELS ARE TRYING TO BUILD AN UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE AREA, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL PLAY A
VITAL ROLE IN OUR WEATHER SET-UP. IF THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF, IT WOULD ESSENTIALLY PUT OUR
FORECAST ZONES IN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN,
WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, IF THE
RIDGE IS FARTHER NORTH, WE WOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA. WITH ALL OF THE WEATHER SCENARIOS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FOR THE 24/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR CEILINGS AS SOME LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP
TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. WE COULD SEE A FEW IFR CIGS AS WELL,
BUT I ONLY HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION THIS FOR KLFK AND KGGG
WITH KTYR BEING CLOSE. OTHERWISE, I STILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF
VCSH AND VCTS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD, BUT WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 84 65 86 / 10 40 70 20
MLU 65 85 65 87 / 0 60 80 30
DEQ 65 78 60 80 / 30 70 50 20
TXK 69 82 64 83 / 20 70 70 20
ELD 65 80 61 82 / 10 70 80 20
TYR 70 85 67 87 / 10 20 40 10
GGG 68 85 66 86 / 10 30 50 10
LFK 67 86 67 88 / 0 20 30 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33
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