000  
FXUS64 KSHV 150038  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
738 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS  
EVENING, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN  
ADDITION, SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BRING LOWERED  
VSBYS TO KTXK, ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM. CIGS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE ENE AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE  
PD. /12/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
SUBTLE FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, TAKING  
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST  
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY  
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS. WHILE UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVERNIGHT UPSTREAM OF  
PRESENT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY, THERE ARE WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE  
NEARLY WNW TO ZONAL W TO E FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND SOME MEDIUM RANGE PROGS IN  
ADDITION TO THE HRRR ARE PICKING UP ON SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING  
OUT OF THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY AND MOVING IN OUR NORTHWEST  
ZONES OR THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS  
MENTIONED OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS ELSEWHERE AND KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN THE  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  
 
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NARROW WINDOW OF NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY BUT AS WE TRANSITION INTO THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING, A MUCH STRONGER  
PERTURBATION IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY  
FORCING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BUT WE WILL NEED TO  
SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO SATURATION MAY NOT BE  
A QUICK PROCESS ON THURSDAY DURING THE DAY BUT QUICKLY SATURATE  
THE COLUMN THU EVNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES, GIVEN THE COOL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF  
GUIDANCE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES  
LOWER THAN NBM VALUES.  
 
13  
 
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE  
WESTERN TROUGH OPENING UP AND SLOWLY EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OVER THE  
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP USHER A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR REGION AND PROVIDE  
FOR INCREASED FORCING TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IN OUR COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS,  
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
MAINLY ELEVATED. AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END ALTHOUGH SOME OF  
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SOUTH OF I-20 MAY HOLD ON TO SOME LINGERING LIGHT  
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW ON  
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RETURN  
AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T  
APPEAR THAT WE WILL LOSE THE CLOUD COVER AT ALL SATURDAY WITH SOME  
SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND  
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.  
 
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON  
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING  
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT  
THE SFC, THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL BELOW  
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED AND EVEN SOME OF OUR  
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY  
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE  
AGAIN BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DUE TO  
LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY CONVECTION GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE  
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.  
 
/19/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 53 71 53 63 / 30 20 60 90  
MLU 53 70 51 63 / 30 10 50 70  
DEQ 49 67 49 60 / 40 20 60 90  
TXK 50 67 50 61 / 40 20 60 80  
ELD 47 67 48 61 / 40 10 50 70  
TYR 54 69 54 66 / 30 40 70 90  
GGG 53 69 53 64 / 30 30 70 90  
LFK 56 72 57 70 / 40 40 60 80  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
12/13/19  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page