377  
FXUS64 KSHV 240834  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
334 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
 
AS DAWN APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING  
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING  
EASTWARD AND LOOK SITUATED TO BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF  
THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE 06Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES AN  
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO  
CLIMB, WITH SFC TO 3KM SRH OF 385 M^2/S^2. CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED  
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, WITH AMPLE TIME FOR FURTHER  
DESTABILIZATION ENCOURAGED BY DAYTIME WARMING WHILE STRONG SOUTH  
WINDS MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED MOISTURE SOURCE UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT.  
 
THUS, THE ENTIRE SHV CWA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
POTENTIAL TODAY IN THE SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 SWO. THE THREAT LEVELS  
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH TYLER AND LUFKIN IN THE MARGINAL  
RISK (LEVEL 1/5), LONGVIEW AND TEXARKANA IN THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL  
2/5), SHREVEPORT AND NATCHITOCHES IN THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5),  
AND EL DORADO, RUSTON AND MONROE IN THE MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5).  
REGARDLESS OF LEVEL, ALL SITES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SHOULD REMAIN  
VIGILANT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING 1LARGE HAIL,  
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.  
 
THIS MORNING'S PRE-DAWN STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND  
EAST, LOOKING TO ENTER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THE TEXARKANA METRO BY  
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ADVANCING INTO THE SHREVEPORT METRO AND  
GREATER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MIDAFTERNOON.  
BASED ON THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR PROGRESSION, STORMS MAY BE  
CLEARING AREAS WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  
EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, STORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE  
FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER, AND BASED ON MODEL ANALYSIS, IS WHERE  
THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES WILL EXIST,  
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF  
STORMS. EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY WILL HINGE ON MESOSCALE  
FEATURES WHICH CANNOT YET BE DISCERNED. ALL THOSE IN THE ARKLATEX  
WOULD BE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND HAVE A  
SHELTER PLAN IN PLACE, WITH INCREASED URGENCY DIRECTED TOWARDS  
LOCATIONS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
 
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER  
80S EAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST TO  
LOWER 60S EAST, CLIMBING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHWEST TO  
LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST FOR A SUNNY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT BRING  
MUCH OF A REGIME CHANGE, ONLY MAKING WAY FOR A RETURN TO ZONAL TO  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THUS SUSTAINING THESE WARM TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
/26/  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL  
ALLOWING FOR A GENERALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AREAWIDE. THIS UPPER-  
LEVEL SETUP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEXT  
WEEK, BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  
 
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY  
CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WEAK  
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO BEGIN TO MIGRATE NORTH  
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN  
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. WEAK  
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN  
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW COOL LAYER ALONG THE SOUTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH AIRMASS LIKELY MODIFYING BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR A QUICK WARMUP  
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY  
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON  
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM  
ACROSS THE PLAINS. /05/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
 
FOR THE 24/06Z TAFS, DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS  
CONTINUES AS CLOUD ADVANCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO ARKLATEX  
AIRSPACE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO VFR LEVELS  
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTER AREA AIRSPACE  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHRA AND VCTS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ENDING LATE IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.  
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACHIEVING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.  
 
/26/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 79 55 79 52 / 90 20 0 0  
MLU 83 60 81 53 / 60 70 0 0  
DEQ 73 47 72 42 / 90 10 0 0  
TXK 77 51 76 48 / 80 20 0 0  
ELD 80 52 77 48 / 90 50 0 0  
TYR 78 50 77 51 / 90 0 0 0  
GGG 77 52 77 50 / 80 10 0 0  
LFK 78 53 80 53 / 70 10 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM....05  
AVIATION...26  
 
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