377
FXUS64 KSHV 240834
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
334 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
AS DAWN APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING
EASTWARD AND LOOK SITUATED TO BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF
THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE 06Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO
CLIMB, WITH SFC TO 3KM SRH OF 385 M^2/S^2. CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE, WITH AMPLE TIME FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION ENCOURAGED BY DAYTIME WARMING WHILE STRONG SOUTH
WINDS MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED MOISTURE SOURCE UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
THUS, THE ENTIRE SHV CWA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TODAY IN THE SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 SWO. THE THREAT LEVELS
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH TYLER AND LUFKIN IN THE MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5), LONGVIEW AND TEXARKANA IN THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5), SHREVEPORT AND NATCHITOCHES IN THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5),
AND EL DORADO, RUSTON AND MONROE IN THE MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5).
REGARDLESS OF LEVEL, ALL SITES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX SHOULD REMAIN
VIGILANT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING 1LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.
THIS MORNING'S PRE-DAWN STORMS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EAST, LOOKING TO ENTER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THE TEXARKANA METRO BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ADVANCING INTO THE SHREVEPORT METRO AND
GREATER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MIDAFTERNOON.
BASED ON THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR PROGRESSION, STORMS MAY BE
CLEARING AREAS WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR, STORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL BE OCCURRING IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER, AND BASED ON MODEL ANALYSIS, IS WHERE
THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES WILL EXIST,
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS. EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY WILL HINGE ON MESOSCALE
FEATURES WHICH CANNOT YET BE DISCERNED. ALL THOSE IN THE ARKLATEX
WOULD BE ADVISED TO BE PREPARED TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND HAVE A
SHELTER PLAN IN PLACE, WITH INCREASED URGENCY DIRECTED TOWARDS
LOCATIONS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER
80S EAST. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST TO
LOWER 60S EAST, CLIMBING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST FOR A SUNNY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOT BRING
MUCH OF A REGIME CHANGE, ONLY MAKING WAY FOR A RETURN TO ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THUS SUSTAINING THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
/26/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL
ALLOWING FOR A GENERALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AREAWIDE. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL SETUP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEXT
WEEK, BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO BEGIN TO MIGRATE NORTH
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK SOUTH ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW COOL LAYER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH AIRMASS LIKELY MODIFYING BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR A QUICK WARMUP
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE PLAINS. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
FOR THE 24/06Z TAFS, DETERIORATION OF CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS
CONTINUES AS CLOUD ADVANCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO ARKLATEX
AIRSPACE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO VFR LEVELS
INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTER AREA AIRSPACE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHRA AND VCTS CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ENDING LATE IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACHIEVING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 55 79 52 / 90 20 0 0
MLU 83 60 81 53 / 60 70 0 0
DEQ 73 47 72 42 / 90 10 0 0
TXK 77 51 76 48 / 80 20 0 0
ELD 80 52 77 48 / 90 50 0 0
TYR 78 50 77 51 / 90 0 0 0
GGG 77 52 77 50 / 80 10 0 0
LFK 78 53 80 53 / 70 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...26
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