438
FXUS64 KSHV 280152
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
852 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020
UPDATE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE
SE TX COAST INTO CENTRAL MS WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH LOCATED NEAR A
HUNTSVILLE, TYLER TEXAS TO IDABEL OKLAHOMA LINE. TAKING A LOOK AT
01Z TEMPS, TEMPERATURES NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
WERE EITHER AT THEIR FCST MIN TEMP OR A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW IT AS
PATCHY FOG (DENSE IN SOME PLACES ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE) HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THEIR DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY BUT DID LOWER
TEMPS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR JUST A FEW DEGREES.
CONCERNING POPS, QUITE A SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO JUST HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL SEE OVERNIGHT AS THE HRRR IS TRENDING
ON THE DRIER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE 18Z NAM VERY WET WITH
INCREASING PVA FROM THE SOUTH. FOR THE UPDATE, HAVE SHAVED POPS
JUST SLIGHTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A TYLER TO EL DORADO LINE, STILL
KEEPING POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT NORTH OF THIS LINE,
KEEPING MIDDLE END CHANCE POPS GOING. FEEL LIKE ANY CHANCE OF
SEEING ISOLATED TSRA WILL LIKELY BE RESERVED FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARDS SUNRISE WED SO MADE THIS CHANGE AS WELL.
ALL OTHER GRIDS ARE IN THE BALLPARK WITH A VERY WET DAY EXPECTED
AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
13
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL ONLY DETIORATE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES OUR AIRSPACE FROM THE
WEST. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT DID INCLUDE SOME TSRA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TRYING TO COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THIS TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE TAIL END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 62 44 57 / 60 100 50 10
MLU 58 70 48 61 / 60 100 70 10
DEQ 50 57 43 54 / 40 90 80 10
TXK 50 56 43 54 / 50 100 70 10
ELD 51 60 45 57 / 60 90 80 10
TYR 50 55 41 55 / 60 90 20 0
GGG 54 58 42 57 / 60 90 30 0
LFK 59 64 43 61 / 60 90 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
13/13
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