745
FXUS64 KSHV 261815
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO
THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS JOG TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
TO THE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLY STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BASED ON THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXPAND THE ONGOING
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WITH ONGOING FLOOD WARNINGS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
PARISHES IN NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WILL
HOLD OFF ON ENDING THE WATCH EARLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S DUE TO INCREASED RAINFALL AND CLOUD-COVER.
A CHAOTIC ATMOSPHERE TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION SLOWLY WANING AND MULTI-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS PERSISTING
AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. /05/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO EJECT NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER-RIDGE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 90S BY THURSDAY. ACCORDINGLY, WITH INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME LIMITED AND CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
FOR THE 26/18Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH
SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES WITH VFR CIGS SHOWING UP EVERY NOW AND
THEN. EXPECT THE RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR AND EVEN SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM BR. /33/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 83 74 87 / 40 60 40 60
MLU 71 86 72 87 / 40 60 40 60
DEQ 68 83 68 87 / 50 60 30 40
TXK 72 85 72 90 / 50 60 30 50
ELD 68 83 70 87 / 30 60 40 60
TYR 72 83 73 88 / 50 60 30 50
GGG 71 84 71 87 / 50 60 30 50
LFK 71 82 71 85 / 50 60 30 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ017.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ149-152-153-
165>167.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...33
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