733  
FXUS64 KSHV 171050  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
550 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
- AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALONG WITH  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY  
THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE  
REGION BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH UPPER  
RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS TO MICHIGAN AND UPPER TROUGHING  
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE EASTERN  
CONUS. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE IS VERY WEAK. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK  
SHORT-WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO MOVE  
INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA  
ZONES. SOME WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM  
THAT EARLIER CONVECTION, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING  
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED, AND  
MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES. WE SHOULD  
SEE A SIMILAR SET-UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH  
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES BACKDOORING INTO THE REGION. MORE ISOLATED  
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PROGS ARE HINTING AT ISOLATED  
CONVECTION BEING MORE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION, SO DECIDED TO  
PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE  
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID  
90S, WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S.  
 
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO SHIFT BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO  
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD  
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ROCKIES/PLAINS UPPER  
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OUR NECK OF THE WOODS,  
PUTTING US IN MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES MOVE  
ACROSS THE FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG  
AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME RAIN POSSIBLY LINGERING  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, AND CLOSER TO NORMAL  
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN  
CHANCES.  
 
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE  
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, WITH SOME  
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE TRYING TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS CENTRAL  
TEXAS. A MORE WIDESPREAD AND WETTER PATTERN WOULD TAKE SHAPE UNDER  
THIS SET-UP, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS. /20/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
STARTING THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EVEN  
THROUGH WE ARE FLIRTING WITH MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH THE ELD AND MLU  
TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE THAT OUT UNTIL AFTER 13Z THIS MORNING BUT  
WE ARE ALSO SEEING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NW LA WITH  
ELEVATED EARLY MORNING CU. THERE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY  
ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE AND HAVE THUS KEPT VCTS GOING AT ALL TERMINAL  
LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE SOME DRIER  
AIR HAS INFILTRATED OUR NE AIRSPACE. LOOK FOR MOSTLY NW WINDS OR  
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE  
TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY. ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING  
WITH A REMNANT ELEVATED CU FIELD LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.  
 
13  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 96 73 94 73 / 20 20 20 10  
MLU 95 70 94 70 / 20 20 20 0  
DEQ 94 66 92 66 / 20 20 20 20  
TXK 96 70 95 70 / 20 20 20 10  
ELD 94 68 93 68 / 20 20 20 0  
TYR 94 70 91 70 / 20 20 20 10  
GGG 95 69 93 69 / 20 20 20 10  
LFK 95 70 93 69 / 20 20 20 0  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...20  
AVIATION...13  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page
Main Text Page