494
FXUS64 KSHV 281734
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1134 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- THE NEXT ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ELEVATED, SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL
EXISTS (< 20%-30%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS ALREADY ON THE WAY ACROSS WASHINGTON
STATE AS THANKSGIVING NIGHT REMAINS THE LAST DRY NIGHT FOR A WHILE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO RETURN OVERNIGHT
TOMORROW AS THE INITIAL TROUGH QUICKLY EJECTS FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CONVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FROM THE FOLLOWING TROUGH (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ C/KM) FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL (AND
SOME DAMAGING WINDS), ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL INTRODUCE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. COMBINED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE,
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN. THAT SAID, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ALIGNMENT OF
ENOUGH COLD AIR, MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ALL
OF WHICH ADDS UP TO A 20-30% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL (MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S,
MINIMUMS IN THE 40S) UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AIR MASS IS USHERED
IN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER: MAXIMUMS IN THE 50S, MINIMUMS IN
THE 20S-30S AT THE COLDEST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TO NORMAL BY MID-WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD RAIN,
TIMING IS THE MORE DIFFICULT ASPECT TO PIN DOWN. AS IT STANDS,
RAIN WILL IMPACT KTYR AND KTXK FIRST AROUND 30/04Z AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND GUST TO 15+ MPH AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIKELY
TO DROP DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR MANY
SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 60 46 65 38 / 0 60 80 90
MLU 57 41 63 40 / 0 10 70 100
DEQ 57 40 54 27 / 0 80 90 40
TXK 58 44 60 33 / 0 70 90 70
ELD 55 38 57 32 / 0 40 90 90
TYR 61 48 65 34 / 0 70 70 60
GGG 61 46 65 34 / 0 70 80 80
LFK 62 46 70 39 / 0 60 70 100
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57
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