632
FXUS64 KSHV 240500
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH 5-10KFT CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION, BEFORE GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM W TO E LATE. MVFR CIGS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SCNTRL TX THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD SPREAD NNE INTO
E TX AFTER 09Z, AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN
09-12Z. THESE CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD NE INTO NW LA/SW AR
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AFFECTING SHV/TXK/ELD FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO
THIS, SCT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ALONG THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ESE
ACROSS THESE AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST
N OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS, THUS HAVE OMITTED MENTION AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. CU CIGS SHOULD
LINGER AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/WRN AR BY/AFTER
00Z MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT, WITH THIS CONVECTION SLIDING SE
INTO E TX/SW AR/NW LA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
VCTS MENTION AT TXK BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD
AFFECT THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO SHIFT NE ACROSS
LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. S WINDS
4-10KTS, EXCEPT FOR 10-14KTS ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX
TONIGHT, WILL INCREASE TO 7-12KTS BY MIDMORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 959 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER EXTREME SE OK/NRN
SECTIONS OF SW AR, ALONG AN ELEVATED THETA-E AXIS, ORIENTED ALONG
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY N
TO THE ATTENDANT AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SRN NE.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN WORKING IN AN AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY, AND JUST E OF A DEVELOPING 35-40KT SWRLY LLJ
EXTENDING FROM E TX INTO EXTREME SE OK/WRN AR. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE IN REGARDS TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION,
AS WELL AS WHETHER IT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WHICH MAINTAIN THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER SW
AR AND POSSIBLY GRAZING EXTREME NRN LA OVERNIGHT, WHEREAS THE 18Z
AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS ALONGSIDE THE LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT MUCH
DRIER SOLUTIONS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. PREFER TO TAKE A
BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK FORCING SHOULD PERSIST
LATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME
NE TX, BUT REMAIN MOSTLY E OF THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
ALONG THE SWRLY LLJ AXIS.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR
SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION, WHICH
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT. DID TAPER POPS DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER S ACROSS MUCH OF E TX, WHILE MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME NRN LA AS -SHRA MAY BUILD FARTHER S
LATE ONCE THE ELEVATED THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER S IN TIME
AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO MIN TEMPS, MAINLY TO NUDGE TEMPS UP A TAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW
AR/E TX AS SRLY WINDS PERSIST AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE TEMP FALL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 76 59 74 / 20 20 70 20
MLU 54 77 59 74 / 10 20 60 40
DEQ 56 72 49 70 / 50 30 60 0
TXK 57 73 54 71 / 30 30 60 10
ELD 54 74 54 72 / 30 30 60 20
TYR 62 77 58 73 / 20 20 50 20
GGG 60 76 58 74 / 20 20 60 20
LFK 60 80 62 76 / 10 20 30 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
15
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