067
FXUS64 KSHV 201154 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
554 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020
AVIATION
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS IN PLACE TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE
REGION WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AS AREAS OF -RA GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM W TO E FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN AS THE -RA DOES
CLEAR, MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH VFR CIGS RETURNING TO THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON, AND THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA BY EARLY EVENING,
WITH LFK THE LAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. THESE CIGS
SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING, WITH SKC RETURNING
AREAWIDE BY/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. NE WINDS 9-14KTS, WITH GUSTS TO
25KTS, WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 8-12KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 401 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHRA REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT THE
END TO THE WET WEATHER PATTERN IS FINALLY IN SIGHT AS THE MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH DRIER AIR ENTRAINING E ACROSS
WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO NW TX BENEATH A SW TO NE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CO NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN FACT, THE MORNING MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE -RA IS DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK INTO NCNTRL TX. THE SHORT
TERM PROGS AND THE 00Z CAMS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
WITH THE DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN E ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY, OZARKS, AND RED RIVER
VALLEY, WITH THE -SHRA QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E BY MID TO
LATE MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE SRN/ERN ZONES, WHICH SHOULD SEE AN
END TO THE RAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING OVER DEEP E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR,
TAPERING POPS BACK TO LIKELY AND CHANCE FARTHER W ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF E TX/SW AR/SE OK.
MEANWHILE, THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC WAVE HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST OFFSHORE THE
TX/SW LA COASTS, NE INTO SCNTRL AND SE LA AND SRN MS. THESE WEAK
WAVES ALONG THE FRONT, AS WELL AS THE ARCTIC SFC RIDGE THAT WILL
BUILD S INTO WRN OK/OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY, WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT BELIEVE THE LOW STRATUS OVERCAST THAT
WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE STEEP INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z KSHV
RAOB THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF MIXING OF THE 35-40KT NERLY H925 WINDS AND THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO
RELAX BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE MORNING RAINS, LOW OVERCAST,
WET GROUNDS, AND GUSTY NE WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH WARMING TO
OCCUR TODAY FROM THE MORNING LOW TEMPS, AS READINGS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME CLIMBING ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO (AND REMAINING NEAR OR SHY
OF 50 DEGREES).
THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS SHIELD SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO THIN FROM
NE TO SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO A
CLEARING SKY, WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY LATE
EVENING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY,
WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING THE MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MIX SSW
INTO THE AREA. IN FACT, THE DEEPER WEDGE OF COLDER AIR WILL HELP
MIX DEWPOINTS LOOK TO MIX DOWN INTO THE TEENS/LOWER 20S FRIDAY,
AND DESPITE AMPLE INSOLATION, SHOULD MAINTAIN MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE MODIFYING ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
15
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO
THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG
AS TEMPERATURES NOSEDIVE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY WILL AID IN A MODEST WARM-UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SHOWERS BEGIN
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF BOTH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW REMAINING NW OF OUR REGION. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
WHERE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WHILE LOW TO
MID CHANCE POPS ARE ADVERTISED FARTHER SOUTH. IN OTHER WORDS, DON'T
EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT ON SUNDAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER AND MID 60S SOUTH.
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. THIS WILL AFFORD US A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT
SPILLS SE FROM THE ROCKIES DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO OUR AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRECLUDE
HIGHER POPS SO HAVE GENERALLY HELD TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE VARIETY ON
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE
VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN FALL BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 48 31 49 29 / 90 0 0 0
MLU 47 29 47 26 / 100 0 0 0
DEQ 48 25 48 25 / 40 0 0 0
TXK 48 27 48 27 / 70 0 0 0
ELD 48 26 48 25 / 90 0 0 0
TYR 48 31 49 32 / 70 0 0 0
GGG 48 30 49 29 / 80 0 0 0
LFK 48 34 52 30 / 90 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
15/19
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