067  
FXUS64 KSHV 201154 AAA  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
554 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS IN PLACE TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE  
REGION WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON, AS AREAS OF -RA GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM W TO E FROM  
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN AS THE -RA DOES  
CLEAR, MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA,  
WITH VFR CIGS RETURNING TO THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS BY MID/LATE  
AFTERNOON, AND THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA BY EARLY EVENING,  
WITH LFK THE LAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. THESE CIGS  
SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING, WITH SKC RETURNING  
AREAWIDE BY/AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. NE WINDS 9-14KTS, WITH GUSTS TO  
25KTS, WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 8-12KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 401 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
SHRA REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT THE  
END TO THE WET WEATHER PATTERN IS FINALLY IN SIGHT AS THE MORNING  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH DRIER AIR ENTRAINING E ACROSS  
WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO NW TX BENEATH A SW TO NE UPPER TROUGH  
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL CO NE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE NRN  
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN FACT, THE MORNING MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY  
CONFIRMS THIS AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE -RA IS DIMINISHING ACROSS  
THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK INTO NCNTRL TX. THE SHORT  
TERM PROGS AND THE 00Z CAMS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING  
WITH THE DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN E ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH PASSAGE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY, OZARKS, AND RED RIVER  
VALLEY, WITH THE -SHRA QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E BY MID TO  
LATE MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE SRN/ERN ZONES, WHICH SHOULD SEE AN  
END TO THE RAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED  
CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING OVER DEEP E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR,  
TAPERING POPS BACK TO LIKELY AND CHANCE FARTHER W ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF E TX/SW AR/SE OK.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC WAVE HAVE  
DEVELOPED ALONG THE OLD COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST OFFSHORE THE  
TX/SW LA COASTS, NE INTO SCNTRL AND SE LA AND SRN MS. THESE WEAK  
WAVES ALONG THE FRONT, AS WELL AS THE ARCTIC SFC RIDGE THAT WILL  
BUILD S INTO WRN OK/OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY, WILL RESULT IN A  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT BELIEVE THE LOW STRATUS OVERCAST THAT  
WILL PERSIST BENEATH THE STEEP INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z KSHV  
RAOB THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP LIMIT THE  
EXTENT OF MIXING OF THE 35-40KT NERLY H925 WINDS AND THUS HAVE  
MAINTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER,  
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO  
RELAX BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE MORNING RAINS, LOW OVERCAST,  
WET GROUNDS, AND GUSTY NE WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH WARMING TO  
OCCUR TODAY FROM THE MORNING LOW TEMPS, AS READINGS WILL HAVE A  
HARD TIME CLIMBING ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO (AND REMAINING NEAR OR SHY  
OF 50 DEGREES).  
 
THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS SHIELD SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO THIN FROM  
NE TO SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO A  
CLEARING SKY, WITH COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY LATE  
EVENING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE BUILDING  
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING  
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY,  
WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING THE MUCH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MIX SSW  
INTO THE AREA. IN FACT, THE DEEPER WEDGE OF COLDER AIR WILL HELP  
MIX DEWPOINTS LOOK TO MIX DOWN INTO THE TEENS/LOWER 20S FRIDAY,  
AND DESPITE AMPLE INSOLATION, SHOULD MAINTAIN MAX TEMPS IN THE  
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITH THE MODIFYING ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDING INTO  
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE  
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES FOR THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
15  
 

 
 
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO  
THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG  
AS TEMPERATURES NOSEDIVE ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 20S TO  
LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON  
SATURDAY WILL AID IN A MODEST WARM-UP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS DESPITE INCREASING  
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK  
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SHOWERS BEGIN  
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. THESE SHOWERS  
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF BOTH THE CLOSED UPPER  
LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW REMAINING NW OF OUR REGION. BETTER RAIN  
CHANCES WILL GENERALLY RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR  
WHERE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WHILE LOW TO  
MID CHANCE POPS ARE ADVERTISED FARTHER SOUTH. IN OTHER WORDS, DON'T  
EXPECT A TOTAL WASHOUT ON SUNDAY BUT DO EXPECT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY  
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER AND MID 60S SOUTH.  
 
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND  
DRAGS A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE  
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. THIS WILL AFFORD US A PERIOD  
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT  
SPILLS SE FROM THE ROCKIES DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO OUR AREA  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL PRECLUDE  
HIGHER POPS SO HAVE GENERALLY HELD TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE VARIETY ON  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE  
VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN FALL BELOW  
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT.  
 
/19/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 48 31 49 29 / 90 0 0 0  
MLU 47 29 47 26 / 100 0 0 0  
DEQ 48 25 48 25 / 40 0 0 0  
TXK 48 27 48 27 / 70 0 0 0  
ELD 48 26 48 25 / 90 0 0 0  
TYR 48 31 49 32 / 70 0 0 0  
GGG 48 30 49 29 / 80 0 0 0  
LFK 48 34 52 30 / 90 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
15/19  
 
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