472
FXUS64 KSHV 141930
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- A FAST MOVING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE
DAMAGING WIND, HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AND EXCEEDING 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN,
RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
ONE LAST QUIET AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70'S WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVERAGE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS WITHIN A MATURING CORRIDOR OF PVA ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. LOCALLY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD, ENTERING
THE FAR NORTHWEST TIER OF THE FA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER LUNCHTIME.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT WILL BE THE DRIVING FEATURE OF OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOCALLY, ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL BRIEFLY
SHIFT THE ARK-LA-TEX BACK TO TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
FOCUSING ON SUNDAY, THE MORNING WILL START WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLIES
THAT WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SUPPORTS SUSTAINED 15-
20 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 30-35 MPH. AS
A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AREAWIDE THROUGH MONDAY
AS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE JUST AS GUSTY, HOWEVER
THE DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AS IT USHERS IN THE BRISK
AIRMASS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM AFTERNOON WILL UNFOLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70'S AND LOW 80'S ACROSS
THE BOARD. AT THE SAME TIME, THE STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING LOCAL TD'S IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60'S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3 OF 5) AND SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) DRAWN UP ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
POINT AND CLICK SOUNDING ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT MUCH
OF THE ARK-LA-TEX WILL HAVE A CAP IN PLACE AS A WARMER LAYER OF AIR
ALOFT WILL BUILD NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPRESS WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
LEAVING FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
THAT WILL BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE UPGROWTH LATER IN
THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SHOULD OUTLINE THE
COLD FRONT AS IT RUSHES EAST AND INTERCEPTS A ROBUST AIRMASS THAT
WILL SUPPORT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER IF CONVECTION CAN DEEPEN
FURTHER. THIS REMAINS A QUESTION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR AS STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS ALREADY APPROACHING I-49 IN AR/LA.
EAST OF I-49, HI-RES CAMS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SUGGEST QLCS
MATURITY AS THE FRONT RACES EAST SUNDAY EVENING. AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED, DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE
WILL BE THE CONCERN.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG POST FRONTAL GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME GUSTS COULD BE
STRONGER AT TIMES. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ASSOCIATED AIRMASS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20'S AND LOW 30'S. FACTOR
IN THE WIND, AND FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20'S THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE THEME OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS ONLY TOP
OUT INTO THE LOW 50'S BEFORE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS NEAR AND BELOW
FREEZING AREAWIDE AS THE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS DROP OFF JUST AFTER
SUNSET. AS A RESULT, THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. ANOTHER FEATURE WORTH WATCHING WILL BE THE FALL OFF OF RH
PERCENTAGES BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN RH PERCENTAGES TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20'S MONDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINE THIS WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS, AND A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN RETURNS. WHILE NO FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME, THIS MAY BE
CONSIDERED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. BY MID-WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE MIDDLE 70'S, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80'S BY
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, RIDGING OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR ALL EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS
ARRIVING 05-09Z ON GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO 40KT. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME WINDY 10-20G30KT FOR THE LONG HAUL AS WE SHIFT FROM S/SW
TO NW FOR KTYR/KTXK AT 21Z, THEN KGGG 22Z AND KSHV/KLFK NEAR 23Z.
STRONG CAPPING INHIBITS CONVECTION UNTIL THE FRONT PLOWS IN MID TO
LATE AFTN, SCT TS MAY BECOME SVR WITH ALL MODES POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOUR TEMPO WINDOW. WE'LL SHIFT TO GUSTY NW OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
CHILLY INTO MONDAY AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH NW GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 83 36 50 / 0 60 30 0
MLU 57 84 37 51 / 0 40 70 0
DEQ 55 74 26 46 / 0 70 10 0
TXK 61 81 32 49 / 0 70 20 0
ELD 57 80 31 48 / 0 70 40 0
TYR 62 81 35 51 / 0 30 10 0
GGG 60 83 34 51 / 0 50 20 0
LFK 61 85 38 53 / 0 30 30 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...20
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