640  
FXUS64 KSHV 190746  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
246 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025  
 
CONVEYOR BELT OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED NORTH  
AND WEST OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING OR ALONG A COLD FRONT  
WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NW TX INTO SC OK...EXTENDING NORTHEAST  
INTO NE OK AND SW MO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE  
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FAR  
NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND INTO  
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY RETREATS RAPIDLY TO THE  
NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
TODAY THAT OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MAY GET BRUSHED BY SOME  
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WITH THE AID OF PEAK  
HEATING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, CANNOT  
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
NEAR OR ALONG SPC'S SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AN  
INSTABILITY AXIS APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA LATE  
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COMBINED  
WITH DESCENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE HAIL THREAT AND  
LATEST PROGS DO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MINIMAL TORNADO THREAT WITH A  
SLIGHT UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL TO GO ALONG  
WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STILL THINK ANY KIND OF TRAINING  
AND/OR EXCESSIVE, HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH  
AND WEST AND THUS, WE REMAIN UNDER JUST A SLIGHT ERO ACROSS  
NORTHWEST MCCURTAIN COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
SPEAKING OF TONIGHT, THINKING IS OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL  
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR  
NORTHWEST RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST. MUCH OF OUR REGION WILL  
LIKELY GO THROUGH A LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRECIPITATION  
WISE BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE  
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF THE CLOSER WE GET TO SUNRISE SUNDAY  
MORNING. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS WE  
WILL NEED TO AWAIT INCREASED UPPER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE  
EJECTING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST AND FRONTAL FORCING  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
WHICH IS A LITTLE LATER THAN PROGS WERE SUGGESTING ON FRIDAY. THIS  
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IF THE  
ATMOSPHERE CAN OVERCOME PRE-FRONTAL MORNING CONVECTION, SOMETHING  
SPC REFERS TOO IN THEIR DAYTWO OUTLOOK DISCUSSION. BEST DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE  
I-20 CORRIDOR OR ACROSS SW AR INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX AND  
SE OK BEGINNING LATE MORNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE NEAR A LFK...SHV...TXK  
LINE BY 00Z MON AND NEAR A LFK...ELD LINE BY 06Z MON. THINK THE  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY EVENING  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION AS WE LOSE THE DESTABILIZING  
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING, NOT TO MENTION WE LOSE THE UPPER  
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY INTO  
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 00Z MON. AGAIN, THERE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND THEAT MAINLY WITH ANY SEVERE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY,  
FOLLOWED BY AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL THAT WILL DIMINISH  
BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
13  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025  
 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT  
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST PARISHES BEFORE RAPIDLY RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD  
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE RETURNING FRONTAL BOUNDARY,  
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES DURING  
THE DAY TUE BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE  
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS WEEKEND, OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL INTRODUCE A PARADE OF  
DISTURBANCES MOVING OUR WAY THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 
STARTING TO GET A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE PROSPECT FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL BY MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THERE APPEARS TO BE AT  
LEAST THREE IMPULSES MOVING OUR WAY IN THE WED THRU FRI TIMEFRAME  
THAT WILL HAVE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE HEAVY  
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION. WE ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE  
FALLING TRENDS ON MOST OF OUR AREA LAKES AND RIVERS AND THIS WILL  
OBVIOUSLY CHANGE IF THIS VERY ACTIVE, PROGRESS PATTERN CONTINUES  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  
 
13  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025  
 
MVFR CEILINGS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD  
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEY MAY BRIEFLY  
LIFT FOR EASTERN TERMINALS LATER IN THE PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER  
PUSH OF LOW CLOUDS MOVES IN. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY AT  
AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT, WITH A FEW SITES STILL EXPECTED TO SEE SOME  
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 KTS OR SO. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO  
IMPACT THE ARK-LA-TX MORE AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THIS TAF PERIOD,  
KEEPING AREAS DRY FOR THE SHORT TERM. /57/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS TODAY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30  
CORRIDOR. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FOUR STATE REGION ON SUNDAY.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 87 71 84 59 / 10 10 80 90  
MLU 86 70 85 66 / 0 0 40 60  
DEQ 82 64 78 51 / 40 60 90 40  
TXK 86 69 80 54 / 20 30 90 70  
ELD 85 67 84 59 / 0 10 70 90  
TYR 85 70 80 55 / 30 30 90 50  
GGG 85 68 82 57 / 20 20 90 70  
LFK 87 70 85 61 / 10 10 90 80  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...13  
LONG TERM....13  
AVIATION...57  
 
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