632  
FXUS64 KSHV 240500  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1200 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH 5-10KFT CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE  
REGION, BEFORE GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM W TO E LATE. MVFR CIGS HAVE  
DEVELOPED OVER SCNTRL TX THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD SPREAD NNE INTO  
E TX AFTER 09Z, AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN  
09-12Z. THESE CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD NE INTO NW LA/SW AR  
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AFFECTING SHV/TXK/ELD FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH  
MID-MORNING. THESE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST  
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO  
THIS, SCT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF  
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, ALONG THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ESE  
ACROSS THESE AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN JUST  
N OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS, THUS HAVE OMITTED MENTION AT THIS  
TIME. HOWEVER, AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH  
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. CU CIGS SHOULD  
LINGER AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH SCT CONVECTION  
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/WRN AR BY/AFTER  
00Z MONDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT, WITH THIS CONVECTION SLIDING SE  
INTO E TX/SW AR/NW LA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INSERTED  
VCTS MENTION AT TXK BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD  
AFFECT THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN  
ADDITION, MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO SHIFT NE ACROSS  
LOWER E TX/NCNTRL LA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. S WINDS  
4-10KTS, EXCEPT FOR 10-14KTS ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX  
TONIGHT, WILL INCREASE TO 7-12KTS BY MIDMORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX. /15/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 959 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/  
 
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING OVER EXTREME SE OK/NRN  
SECTIONS OF SW AR, ALONG AN ELEVATED THETA-E AXIS, ORIENTED ALONG  
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY N  
TO THE ATTENDANT AND WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SRN NE.  
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN WORKING IN AN AREA WITH LIMITED  
INSTABILITY, AND JUST E OF A DEVELOPING 35-40KT SWRLY LLJ  
EXTENDING FROM E TX INTO EXTREME SE OK/WRN AR. THE SHORT TERM  
PROGS REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE IN REGARDS TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION,  
AS WELL AS WHETHER IT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GFS/ECMWF  
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WHICH MAINTAIN THE SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER SW  
AR AND POSSIBLY GRAZING EXTREME NRN LA OVERNIGHT, WHEREAS THE 18Z  
AND 00Z NAM SOLUTIONS ALONGSIDE THE LATEST HRRR RUNS DEPICT MUCH  
DRIER SOLUTIONS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA. PREFER TO TAKE A  
BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK FORCING SHOULD PERSIST  
LATE ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH ACROSS SW AR/EXTREME  
NE TX, BUT REMAIN MOSTLY E OF THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN  
ALONG THE SWRLY LLJ AXIS.  
 
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE POPS TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE FOR  
SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION, WHICH  
MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT. DID TAPER POPS DOWN TO  
SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER S ACROSS MUCH OF E TX, WHILE MAINTAINING  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME NRN LA AS -SHRA MAY BUILD FARTHER S  
LATE ONCE THE ELEVATED THETA-E AXIS SHIFTS A BIT FARTHER S IN TIME  
AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS  
TO MIN TEMPS, MAINLY TO NUDGE TEMPS UP A TAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW  
AR/E TX AS SRLY WINDS PERSIST AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE TEMP FALL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.  
 
15  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 58 76 59 74 / 20 20 70 20  
MLU 54 77 59 74 / 10 20 60 40  
DEQ 56 72 49 70 / 50 30 60 0  
TXK 57 73 54 71 / 30 30 60 10  
ELD 54 74 54 72 / 30 30 60 20  
TYR 62 77 58 73 / 20 20 50 20  
GGG 60 76 58 74 / 20 20 60 20  
LFK 60 80 62 76 / 10 20 30 40  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
15  
 
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