000
FXUS64 KSHV 150038
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
738 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
AVIATION
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION, SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BRING LOWERED
VSBYS TO KTXK, ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR FROM NW TO SE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE ENE AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PD. /12/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SUBTLE FORCING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, TAKING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLID JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVERNIGHT UPSTREAM OF
PRESENT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY, THERE ARE WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NEARLY WNW TO ZONAL W TO E FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND SOME MEDIUM RANGE PROGS IN
ADDITION TO THE HRRR ARE PICKING UP ON SOME PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT OF THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY AND MOVING IN OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES OR THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS
MENTIONED OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE AND KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN THE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NARROW WINDOW OF NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY BUT AS WE TRANSITION INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING, A MUCH STRONGER
PERTURBATION IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
FORCING FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BUT WE WILL NEED TO
SATURATE THE AIR COLUMN FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO SATURATION MAY NOT BE
A QUICK PROCESS ON THURSDAY DURING THE DAY BUT QUICKLY SATURATE
THE COLUMN THU EVNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES, GIVEN THE COOL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN NBM VALUES.
13
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN WITH THE
WESTERN TROUGH OPENING UP AND SLOWLY EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP USHER A SHORTWAVE INTO OUR REGION AND PROVIDE
FOR INCREASED FORCING TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IN OUR COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS,
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ELEVATED. AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END ALTHOUGH SOME OF
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SOUTH OF I-20 MAY HOLD ON TO SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW ON
THIS POSSIBILITY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RETURN
AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T
APPEAR THAT WE WILL LOSE THE CLOUD COVER AT ALL SATURDAY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC, THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED AND EVEN SOME OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES IN THE UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY CONVECTION GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 71 53 63 / 30 20 60 90
MLU 53 70 51 63 / 30 10 50 70
DEQ 49 67 49 60 / 40 20 60 90
TXK 50 67 50 61 / 40 20 60 80
ELD 47 67 48 61 / 40 10 50 70
TYR 54 69 54 66 / 30 40 70 90
GGG 53 69 53 64 / 30 30 70 90
LFK 56 72 57 70 / 40 40 60 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
12/13/19
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