216
FXUS64 KSHV 291129
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
529 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A LOW-END CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AREAS WEST
OF I-49 AFTER SUNSET AS ANTICIPATED. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DRIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARK-LA-TEX BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ENTER THE AREA WITH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (E.G. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ C/KM) FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL (AND SOME
DAMAGING WINDS), ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. COMBINED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE, THE
FOLLOWING TROUGH, DEPICTED IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE, WILL CARRY
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
ALIGNMENT OF ENOUGH COLD AIR, MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR THIS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, ALL OF THIS STILL ADDS UP TO A 20-30% CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL
(MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S, MINIMUMS IN THE 40S) UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT AIR MASS IS USHERED IN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER:
MAXIMUMS IN THE 50S, MINIMUMS IN THE 20S-30S AT THE COLDEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS, SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD AREA AIRSPACE ON OR A
LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. CARRYING -RA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
INITIAL WAVE. CONTINUING INTO THIS MORNING, ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE, REFLECTED IN PREVAILING VCSH. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE, SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 39 49 37 / 70 80 10 20
MLU 62 40 49 35 / 60 80 30 10
DEQ 54 27 45 27 / 90 30 0 10
TXK 59 33 47 32 / 90 60 0 10
ELD 55 32 45 29 / 90 70 10 10
TYR 66 35 48 36 / 70 70 10 20
GGG 66 35 48 35 / 70 80 10 20
LFK 71 40 51 38 / 60 90 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26
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