008
FXUS64 KSHV 131446
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
UPDATE
THE MORNING UPDATE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON POPS JUST A TAD. OUTSIDE OF
THAT, NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
/44/
AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS SKC OVER TX W/ VFR DECKS OVER AR/LA
8-12FT AND DRIFTING EASTWARD. PATCHY BR MAY STILL AFFECT A SITE OR
TWO. S/SW/W WINDS TODAY NEAR 10KT BACKING TO S AT 14/00Z. MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER NOCTURNAL TS PUSH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
IFR/MVFR IF SO. WKND LOOKS SUMMERY WITH A POPUP TS POSSIBLE. /24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020/
SHORT TERM...
FAIR SKIES FOR MOST OF OUR WEST AS DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING WITH W/NW
FLOW THROUGH OUT THE SENSIBLE ATMOSPHERE. THE DECKS OVER OUR EAST
CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE MID LEVELS AS THE DRIER AIR IS ERODING
LOWER LEVELS. THIS LIFT STILL HAS A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
WITH ONE EVEN IN OUACHITA PARISH EXITING STAGE RIGHT. AIR TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MAINLY FOR AREAS SEEING RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MUCH OF E TX IS UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AT 80 AT TYLER AND
LUFKIN.
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM. IN FACT, PERHAPS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY FOR
HALF OF US AGAIN. HOWEVER, ANOTHER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS MODELED CONSISTENTLY AMONG MANY PROGNOSTICATIONS
FOR THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST FOR THE MOST PART, BUT WE
WILL SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY ONE IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THAN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
EVEN BRUSHING INTO NE TX AGAIN RIDING DOWN THE I-49 CORRIDOR. THE
WPC QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF SUCH EPIC PROPORTIONS
AS YESTERDAY'S EVENT WITH NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR US.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WET SOIL DURING TODAY WITH A REPEAT TOMORROW
TO START THE DAY RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 70S'S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS
TOMORROW SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT POTENTIAL IN E TX,
WHILE MUCH COOLER UPPER 80S EAST OF I-49 WITH THE CLOUDS AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL ACTIVITY. /24/
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EXIT THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT
SW/FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES/CNTRL PLAINS WHILE EXPANDING E INTO THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY SATURDAY, THUS ENHANCING THE HEAT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE WEAK SFC BNDRY OVER EXTREME SE OK/SRN AR
SATURDAY, THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THIS BNDRY IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY,
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY OVER THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING S INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY, WHICH
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER
SCNTRL AR/N LA/DEEP E TX MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. HAVE TAILORED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS, WITH A DEEPENING NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE HELPING TO REINFORCE A WEAK
SFC FRONT S INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ABOUT 12 HRS
SOONER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN PROGGED THE LAST FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ADVECT SWD MONDAY, WITH
THE MODELS SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY QPF, AND THUS HAVE TAPERED
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND
LOWER RH'S EXPECTED TO BE USHERED IN THE FRONT'S WAKE. A SECOND AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY/MID-
SOUTH REGION TUESDAY THUS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE,
WITH THE GFS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING SOLUTION MAINLY NEAR/S OF
I-20. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AREA, BEFORE
TRENDING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME AS
THE REGION BECOMES INFLUENCED BY SFC RIDGING FROM THE OH VALLEY SW
INTO ECNTRL TX. THUS, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND LOWER
RH'S LOOK TO PERSIST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 77 95 78 / 20 10 30 10
MLU 93 75 89 75 / 40 30 40 10
DEQ 93 73 90 73 / 20 20 30 10
TXK 93 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 10
ELD 92 74 89 73 / 30 30 30 10
TYR 99 79 100 79 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 98 78 97 78 / 10 10 20 0
LFK 99 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ070-071.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-
017-018.
OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
15/24/44
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