355
FXUS64 KSHV 210814
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA, AS AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
GENERATING VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LUFKIN, TX TO EL DORADO, AR AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
15Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING AS THE PRE-DAWN
MIST QUICKLY BURNS OFF. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
MAKING WAY FOR MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS REGIME CHANGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS
SURFACE WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT GENERATE MUCH IF
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
INDEED, ITS PRIMARY EFFECT WILL BE ON THE TEMPERATURES THE
ARKLATEX EXPERIENCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WEEK'S
WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME SITES IN
DEEP EAST TEXAS PUSHING CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO
LOWER 60S IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES, MAKING FOR
ANOTHER SEASONABLE START TO ROUND OFF THIS MOSTLY DRY AUTUMN
WEEK.
/26/
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST
RESPONSE TO THIS CHANGE OF AIRMASS BY GRADUALLY WARMING FROM NEAR 60
DEGREES ON SATURDAY MORNING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BY MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND TO AVERAGE IN
THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH VERY LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND LEAVING A TRAILING COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER FETCH OF GULF
MOISTURE SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AHEAD OF A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE ARKLATEX ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE SHIFT. LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 70S. /05/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS, FOG HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS
AT MLU DURING THE 21/05Z HOUR, AND CONDITIONS REMAIN RIPE FOR FOG
TO LINGER OR REDEVELOP THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, NOT ONLY AT
KMLU BUT AT OTHER AREA TERMINALS AS WELL, SUCH AS KELD AND KLFK.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL AFFECT OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD, WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR
TO LOW VFR CIGS.DRY AND CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 56 82 63 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 86 54 79 59 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 79 49 78 56 / 0 0 10 10
TXK 81 53 79 61 / 10 0 10 10
ELD 81 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 84 56 84 65 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 85 54 83 63 / 0 0 10 0
LFK 89 61 87 64 / 0 0 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ013-014-
017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
26/05/26
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