761
FXUS64 KSHV 221155
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH AND
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-25% RANGE WILL MAKE FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- A COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
SHOWERS RETURN TO OUR EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS FINALLY PUSHED THE STUBBORN SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH HAS BEEN AN EVER-PRESENT NUISANCE FULLY OUT OF THE ARKLATEX. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ADVANCING EAST FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH IN CONCERT WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES HAS ESTABLISHED PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW.
ACCORDINGLY, COLD AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON STOUT NORTH
WINDS.
THESE NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW,
WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH. THE COOL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH WILL ALSO
BE VERY DRY, DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE ELECTED TO GO
AHEAD AND EXPAND THE EXISTING FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREAWIDE FOR
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND UPPER
30S SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AREAWIDE BY MID-AFTERNOON.
BY EVENING, THE COLD AIRMASS WILL COMPLETE ITS PROPAGATION INTO THE
ARKLATEX, AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN COOL
AIR ADVECTION TO AND USHER IN THE NEW WORK WEEK, KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL
HELP FLATTEN OUT OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND INTRODUCE A RAPID WARMING
TREND, RETURNING HIGHS TO THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS BACK TO THE 50S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN EMERGING TROUGH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, MAKING FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES OF THE ARKLATEX THURSDAY.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
FOR THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SKC ASIDE FROM SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS MAYBE
GETTING INTO OUR AIRSPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER
WINDY DAY IS AHEAD DUE TO A PERSISTENTLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT,
RESULTING IN N/NW WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ON AVERAGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY 23/00Z, LOOK
FOR WIND SPEEDS TO RELAX AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
HOWEVER, AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST TODAY DUE TO GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. THEREFORE,
RELAYING INFORMATION RELATED TO WILDFIRE ACTIVITY IS ENCOURAGED.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 33 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 57 31 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 53 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 56 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 55 27 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 58 32 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 31 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 60 33 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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