203
FXUS64 KSHV 091937
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDERWAY THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY LOCATED ACROSS THE LOUISIANA PARISHES OF THE
FA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS A PARADE OF CUMULUS STREAMING SOUTH AHEAD
OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SUNSET CUTS OFF THE HEAT DRIVEN SUPPORT. THAT BEING SAID, WHAT DOES
REMAIN LEFT AFTER SUNSET SHOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME WEAK
SHOWERS ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OUR UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
ON MONDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO THE
REGION, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO GRADUALLY
CUTOFF AND REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT,
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW MATERIALIZES SE OF FA. FACTOR THIS IN WITH BREEZY NORTHERLIES,
HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE, RANGING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70'S, AND NEAR 80 DEG F. POPS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SAME
LOCATIONS AS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COMMUNITIES OF THE FA. PERCENTAGES REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH MANY OF THOSE IN LINE FOR SHOWERS/ISO.
T-STORMS BEING AT OR JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. GIVEN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN WHICH THE UPPER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT,
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, THAT WILL PRIMARILY ESTABLISH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MS/AL COAST, WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION, AND SIT OVERHEAD OF THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT FOR COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND EXIT THE REGION AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD AS A RESULT OF LONGWAVE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS
(DEPENDING ON YOUR PREFERENCE OF TEMPERATURE) IS THE RETURN OF
WARMER HIGHS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NOT ONLY WILL RIDGING
CUT OFF LOCAL RAIN CHANCES, BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BUMP UP THE PROBABILITY THAT MAXT'S WILL BE GREATER THAN 90 DEG
F. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN GOES AS FAR AS ADVERTISING MIDDLE 90'S BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE 7 DAY QPF VALUES HAVE COME
UP WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THEY REMAIN MAINLY
BELOW AN INCH, AND PRIMARILY DISTRIBUTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
FOR THE 09/18Z TAF PERIOD...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TAF SITES, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY
SUNSET. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMLU, WHERE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, AS LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND HANG ACROSS THE REGION. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY NOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 79 58 71 / 20 20 30 40
MLU 62 72 58 70 / 30 30 40 40
DEQ 55 76 55 71 / 10 0 10 20
TXK 59 76 57 69 / 10 10 20 40
ELD 58 73 54 68 / 20 20 40 40
TYR 60 78 55 70 / 20 10 10 20
GGG 59 78 54 70 / 20 10 20 30
LFK 60 78 55 68 / 30 30 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...20
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