034
FXUS64 KSHV 140525
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1225 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, ALONG WITH A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES AND CENTRAL & NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN SETTLING OVER OUR
REGION FOR MOST OF TODAY THROUGH THE CURRENT WRITING OF THIS
FORECAST DISCUSSION. WITHIN THE FLOW, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO DRIVE A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION, WHICH CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY, SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, YOU
CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOP
NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FRONT STALLING JUST
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR ACROSS OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS ZONES BY
LUNCHTIME TOMORROW. THIS COULD YIELD SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS AND EXTEME WESTERN LOUISIANA ZONES,
RESULTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. ALSO, BECAUSE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL, THE LAGGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS GENERALLY INCLUDES AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CLARKSVILLE TEXAS TO MONROE LOUISIANA, WHICH ESSENTIALLY IS EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND
EXTREME NORTHERN & NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT
COOLING TREND FOR THOSE AREAS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY LIFT BACK THROUGH THE AREA BY TOMORROW
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, WHILE
GRADUALLY FLATTENING OUT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE,
ALONG WITH WARM CONDITIONS, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RAMPS UP IN RESPONSE
TO SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 12-17 MPH, WITH GUSTS 20-25
MPH, ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
BY SATURDAY, THE FLAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION. IN WAKE OF THE RIDGE, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAINED RAMPED UP, BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE, BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES COULD BE ON THE
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, AS LONG-TERM PROGS ARE
SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FOR THE 14/06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT AREA
TERMINALS, PUNCTUATED ONLY BY A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT WITH A GENERAL
EASTERLY COMPONENT, SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION TO VFR THROUGHOUT WILL BE, LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, AT
SHELTERED TERMINALS WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT AND VSBY REDUCTIONS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS,
MOST LIKELY AT KLFK AND KMLU, IMPROVING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 69 91 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 86 65 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 83 64 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 87 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 85 64 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 91 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 91 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 92 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26
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