165
FXUS64 KSHV 281841
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
141 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA TODAY AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7PM
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH.
- THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS,
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE HAS KICKED OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THAT
FRONT IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DFW METRO AREA, AND SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SHORT-TERM
PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ONCE IN
MOVES INTO OUR AREA. THESE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AS IT THEY
GET CLOSER TO THE LOUISIANA BORDER. WE SHOULD SEE ML-CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
NORTH & CENTRAL LOUISIANA, ALONG WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND GOOD SHEAR PROFILES. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER TO INCREASE TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LARGE
HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN OUR
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES, TO THE MID 60S IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AREAWIDE FROM 10PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 7PM WEDNESDAY, AS WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS NEAR 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR SE OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ZONES COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SENDING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER BACK OVER THE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS, WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ON THURSDAY MORNING, AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON HALLOWEEN MORNING.
BY SATURDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SW CONUS, PUTTING
OUR REGION IN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. LONG-TERM
PROGS ARE SUGGESTING A POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALONG THE FLOW LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE, BRINGING A
RETURN IN DRY CONDITIONS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
FOR THE 28/18Z TAFS...PERSISTANT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAIN AT SEVERAL
SITES AT THE TOP OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT KTYR AND KTXK SOON AFTER 18Z, WITH OTHER SITES
SEEING IMPACTS OVER THE FOLLOWING SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST, AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AND AN UPTICK IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.
WESTERN SITES COULD SEE 20+ KT WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FOR MANY
SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CREEP BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, NORTH & CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED,
ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 62 48 66 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 49 60 48 65 / 70 10 0 0
DEQ 44 55 41 63 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 48 59 45 65 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 46 57 42 63 / 60 10 0 0
TYR 49 61 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 49 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57
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