252
FXUS64 KSHV 251156
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
556 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- TORNADO WATCH #639 STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR PORTIONS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION.
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH OUR BIG COOL DOWN POISED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
WILL BE BRIEF AS ACTIVE WEATHER STILL PLAGUING SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. TORNADO WATCH #639 STILL IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH
1 AM. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO HAS SHOWN A DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY BUT THERE IS STILL A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
WARM FRONT BISECTING NORTHERN LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS IN
THIS WARM SECTOR OR DUE EAST OF THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR SO WE
ARE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS PER SAY YET BUT NEAR OR AFTER 1 AM WE
SHOULD BE CLOSE CLEARING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION EAST OF OUR
REGION.
WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION IS VERY
LOW CEILINGS WHICH CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THE END PRODUCT WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NE TX
INTO SE OK ATTM. WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS FOG PROGRESSES EASTWARD
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. ONE MORE WARM DAY
FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER OUR
REGION LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS COMING IN WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES BOTH NIGHTS.
RAIN RETURNS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WHILE THIS
TROUGH IS NOT NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED AS THE CURRENT ONE WE ARE
DEALING WITH, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND TROUGH
WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VLIFR/IFR IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE
WITH A 0-1 DEGREE T/TD SPREAD, HEAVY FOG MAY POP IN TOO IF WIND
GOES CALM. OTHERWISE, LOW STRATUS WILL AFFECT MANY OF OUR SITES
WITH 0-5KT OF WIND UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING
SOME LAKES OVER TX WITH DRIER SW FLOW WITH A DECENT PACE TO LIFT
AND SCATTER AS THE W/NW WIND ATTAINS SOME SFC SPEEDS 5-10KT BY
15Z-18Z. THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATE DAY AND REMAIN DRY UNDER FAIR
SKIES, BUT TURNING MUCH COLDER FOR THANKSGIVING. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WISE AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 47 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 74 48 61 37 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 66 37 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 67 42 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 67 42 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 69 44 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 69 43 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 47 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>012-017-018.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...24
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