641  
FXUS64 KSHV 250852  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
252 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND  
AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 70S TO  
AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY. FOR MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE  
80 DEGREE MARK FOR ALL AREAS, WITH A FEW MID 80S ACROSS OUR  
WESTERN ZONES. FOR REFERENCE, ACCORDING TO DAILY "NORMAL"  
TEMPERATURE STATISTICS, WE USUALLY DON'T SEE THESE SORTS OF  
TEMPERATURES TILL THE END OF APRIL AND INTO MAY. NONETHELESS, IN  
LOOKING AT RECORDS, WE WILL BE CLOSE TO SOME RECORD HIGHS BUT  
DON'T APPEAR TO BE IN "RECORD BREAKING" STATUS JUST YET FOR BOTH  
TODAY AND MONDAY.  
 
AS EXPECTED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
WE WILL SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AND AN INCREASE  
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL  
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO  
20 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST  
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, SPILLING OVER INTO  
FAR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE IT WILL BE  
GUSTY, I HAVE ELECTED TO NOT ISSUES ANY SORT OF WIND HEADLINE THIS  
MORNING AS WE WILL ONLY BE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
/33/  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY, WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S  
ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN, NOT THINKING THAT WE WILL BE BREAKING  
TOO MANY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE START OF  
THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED FIRE DANGER ACROSS  
THE AREA.  
 
MOVING FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO  
CHANGE. I BELIEVE IT WAS ISAAC NEWTON WHO SAID, "WHAT GOES UP MUST  
COME DOWN". I THINK THIS ULTIMATELY IS A SIMPLIFIED WAY OF  
REFERRING TO THE LAW OF GRAVITY, WHICH STATES THAT ANY OBJECT  
THROWN UPWARD WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED BACK DOWN TO THE EARTH BY  
GRAVITY. BUT LET'S REFER IT TODAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND  
BELIEVE HE MEANT THAT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AND FALLING. A  
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A WIDE VARIETY OF  
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR FAR  
NORTHERN ZONES, HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN  
ZONES AND THEN ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN ELSEWHERE.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL REALLY BE FELT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 COULD  
SEE BELOW FREEZING CONDITIONS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL  
BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS  
THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SEE A WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND. LAST THING TO MENTION ABOUT THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE  
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT  
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE SOME OF THE EARLIER MODELS HINTED  
THAT WE COULD BE IN FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER, I THINK THE GREATER  
DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SPC DID PUT OUT A  
SLIGHT RISK WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH A  
MARGINAL RISK JUST BARELY TOUCHING THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF  
MCCURTAIN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS. /33/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
FOR THE 25/06Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING ABOVE 10 MPH BY  
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. /16/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 80 60 84 65 / 0 0 0 0  
MLU 79 56 80 63 / 0 0 0 0  
DEQ 77 53 81 61 / 0 0 0 0  
TXK 78 58 82 64 / 0 0 0 0  
ELD 79 55 80 62 / 0 0 0 0  
TYR 79 61 85 65 / 0 0 0 0  
GGG 80 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 0  
LFK 80 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...33  
LONG TERM....33  
AVIATION...16  
 
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