228  
FXUS64 KSHV 130530  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
- ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY.  
 
- MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN  
CHANCES DWINDLE AS THE WORK WEEK CONTINUES.  
 
- WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
BEGIN TO WARM WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE LATER  
THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
CAN'T COMPLAIN ABOUT RAINFALL IN JULY AS WE COULD BE DEALING WITH  
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT UNFORTUNATELY WITH  
THE STORMS CAN SOMETIMES COME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WE  
SAW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX AND SE OK ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY  
DEALING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE  
AGAIN LINED UP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND WHILE THESE  
STORMS ARE NOT SEVERE, THEY ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS  
AND THUS WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME LOCAL AREA FLOODING AS WE  
APPROACH SUNRISE. THE PLAYERS IN THE CREATION OF ALL THIS  
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WHICH IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN UPPER  
RIDGING ACROSS THE NE GULF OF AMERICA AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST GREAT BASIN. PVA JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH  
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS PROVIDING THE  
NECESSARY LIFT WHICH HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A MOISTURE TONGUE OF  
2+ INCH PWATS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER  
VALLEY. THE CONVECTION CONTRACTS TOWARDS THE UPPER TROUGH DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AID OF A 30KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL  
JET BUT WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE THIS  
CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST, ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF OUR  
REGION TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POCKETS OF INSTABILITY. FOR THAT REASON,  
DID RAISE NBM POPS SLIGHTLY AREAWIDE GIVEN HOW COVERAGE WAS ON  
SATURDAY AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS  
ARE STILL IN PLACE TODAY.  
 
FOR MONDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DOES BEGIN TO FILL SLIGHTLY BUT AS  
IT DOES, IT'S CLOSER TO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND THEREFORE, OUR  
NORTHWEST HALF WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION  
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE  
NBM LEAD OF CURTAILING POPS BACK TO ISOLATED/LOW END CHANCE  
VARIETY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN HALF ONLY AS THERE IS  
STILL A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY  
BUT TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A TRANSITION  
DAY FOR HOTTER TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO RETROGRADE  
SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE  
FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS SCENARIO IS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  
THAT MAY TRY TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST  
STATES, HUGGING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WED INTO THU. IF THIS  
PATTERN HOLDS TRUE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY  
OF HIGHER POPS IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BUT FOR NOW, WILL  
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE DRIER NBM WHICH HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH  
THE DRIER OPERATIONAL ECMWF THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED  
PACKAGE. IF THIS DRIER, HOTTER PATTERN VERIFIES, THEN WE WILL BE  
LOOKING AT NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BY MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH  
COMBINED WITH HIGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES  
WORTHY OF HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES.  
 
13  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
 
FOR THE 13/06Z TAFS, VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF A MIX OF MID TO HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ASIDE FROM AREAS OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS,  
WITH ASSOCIATED DROPS TO LOWER VFR OR MVFR CIGS. IMPACTS LOOK TO  
BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO KTXK. IF CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH TO THE  
I-20 CORRIDOR, WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. DAYBREAK LOOKS TO SEE MORE  
WIDESPREAD DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR CIGS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF VSBY  
DROPS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL FELL THE PREVIOUS  
AFTERNOON, RECOVERING THROUGH LATE MORNING AND RETURNING TO VFR BY  
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,  
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO  
10 KTS DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.  
 
/26/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM  
OR TWO COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND  
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN AREA FLOODING.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 94 76 94 77 / 60 30 40 10  
MLU 93 75 95 75 / 50 20 40 0  
DEQ 86 70 87 70 / 70 50 50 10  
TXK 92 73 93 74 / 60 40 40 10  
ELD 93 72 92 73 / 60 30 50 10  
TYR 90 73 90 74 / 60 40 30 10  
GGG 92 73 92 74 / 60 30 40 10  
LFK 93 74 94 74 / 60 30 40 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...13  
AVIATION...26  
 
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