247
FXUS64 KSHV 240600
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
- TWO MORE HOT AFTERNOONS FOR THE SHORT TERM, BUT OUR NEXT COOL
FRONT IS ON THE WAY BRINGING US BACK TO AVERAGE AND BELOW.
- RAINFALL WILL BE AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN HALF EARLY TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER THE FRONT FROM OK INTO AR.
DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD BE AREAWIDE IN THE POOLED MOISTURE.
- DRIER PATTERN UNFOLDS FOR MIDWEEK, BUT SE WINDS AND ANOTHER
COOL FRONT WILL DO A BETTER ON WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE IS SOON TO BE REINFORCED OVER OUR FOUR
STATE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE WE ENDURE A COUPLE OF MORE HOT
AFTERNOONS. THE NE WINDS CONTINUE TO LIMIT EXCESSIVE HEAT BY
KEEPING THE HUMIDITY IN CHECK FOR US, BUT NOW IT LOOKS THAT OUR
RAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED. THE WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR NORTH ON
TUESDAY. STORMS WILL HAVE THAT SLOW MOVEMENT SO COMMON WITH
SUMMER-TIME ACTIVITY, BUT NOW OVERALL COVERAGE LOOKS FAR MORE
SPARSE SOUTH OF I-20. DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LIMITED, BUT POOLED
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD CROP UP SOME LATE DAY ACTIVITY
OVER OUR SOUTH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE REFRESHES THE NE WINDS AND KEEPS THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT AT BAY. AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DROP THE MID TO UPPER
90S TO AVERAGE AND BELOW, DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUDS. WE WILL
SEE A DRIER TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATE
BY LATE WEEK, BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE INLAND OFF THE GULF FOR US
WITH SE WINDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. FRIDAY MAY SEE THE MOST RAIN
AROUND BASED ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT ON
TIMING. THE GFS IS NOW A LITTLE SLOWER, BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP
SPOTTY CONVECTION ON THE TABLE FOR US ALL THROUGH THE 3 DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE WPC QPF OUTLOOK FOCUSES ON AREAS NORTH OF I-20 FOR TUESDAY
WITH BETTER TOTALS POSSIBLE THERE AND NONE ZERO ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER, THEIR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 PERIOD SPREADS MORE QPF AREAWIDE
FOR US ALL AS WE WRAP UP THE MONTH OF AUGUST. LABOR DAY LOOKS A
LITTLE WET AS ANOTHER FRONT DROP INTO OUR REGION, BUT ONLY ON THE
GFS. AND THIS MAY BE GOOD AS THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A HEFTY CYCLONE
UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, BUT THE ECMWF REMAINS VERY
DIFFERENT IN THIS REGARD. SO NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME,
BUT CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL SYSTEM TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
PEAK OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS STILL A FEW WEEKS AWAY. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24/06Z TAF PERIOD. AN
ELEVATED SCATTERED CU FIELD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF E TX/EXTREME SW AR/WRN LA, AND COULD AFFECT ALL BUT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NE
LA, WITH A SCATTERED LOWER CU FIELD DEVELOPING AGAIN BETWEEN 16-17Z
SUNDAY. THE CU SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY BEGIN TO SPILL SE INTO SE OK/SW AR BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME ENE 5-8KTS
AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY LATE IN THE DAY
OVER OUR I-30 CORRIDOR WITH ANOTHER COOL FRONT ARRIVING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 95 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 95 69 89 66 / 0 0 10 20
TXK 97 71 94 70 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 95 67 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 95 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 95 70 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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