466  
FXUS64 KSHV 181128  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
628 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SW TODAY, BRINGING AT  
LEAST OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO E TX TERMINALS, AS THE REMNANTS  
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA MOVE NWD ACROSS E TX. CONVECTION MAY  
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE AT KLFK NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. WED  
NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING WILL BRING INCREASING COVERAGE OF  
CONVECTION, WITH SHRA PREVAILING AT KTYR/KGGG AS WELL AFTER 00Z.  
/12/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER SCENARIO UNDERWAY THIS PD, AS THE  
REMNANTS OF TS IMELDA CHURN ALONG THE SE TX COAST. MODELS  
CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER QPF AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES  
NWD OVER E TX THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT, BOTH THE NAM AND THE  
EURO HAVE OVER FIVE INCHES OF TOTAL PRECIP ACCUM OVER DEEP E TX,  
THE GFS OVER FOUR INCHES, BY LATE THIS EVENING. NOT NECESSARILY  
SAYING THAT WE SHOULD BUY THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FROM RAW MODEL  
DATA, BUT AGREEMENT IN RELATIVE PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS BETWEEN  
THREE MODELS SHOULD GIVE SOME PAUSE. COUPLE THAT WITH THE EURO  
BEGINNING THE TREND TOWARDS THESE HEAVIER TOTALS YESTERDAY, AND  
THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME PRETTY SOLID POINTERS TOWARDS A HEAVY  
RAINFALL EVENT. IN COORDINATION WITH THE HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES  
NWS OFFICES, HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX BEGINNING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN  
BOTH TIME AND AREA, BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS WITH  
ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO CONSIDER.  
 
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY AND THURSDAY,  
EXPECT THAT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIG HIT, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS DEEP E TX TODAY AND EXTENDING FURTHER N AND E FOR THURSDAY.  
WITH CLOUD COVER BCMG WIDESPREAD AS WELL, HAVE TRENDED OVERNIGHT  
MINS JUST A BIT ABOVE THE NATIONAL BLEND. /12/  
 
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
BY FRIDAY, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA WILL CONTINUE  
TO DETERIORATE WHILE DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH EAST TX. DESPITE THE  
DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM'S ORGANIZATION, GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION  
ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL POSSIBLY YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME SPAN ACROSS EAST TEXAS, NORTHWEST  
LOUISIANA, EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST  
ARKANSAS. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THESE  
AREAS AS MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES  
IN SOME PLACES. HOPEFULLY MOST AREAS WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE BENEFICIAL  
RAINFALL TO EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.  
 
THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE  
TRACK ON THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS MOVES THIS  
SYSTEM OUT OF EAST TEXAS LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE OZARKS ON  
SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORB IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH  
THE PLAINS TOWARDS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY EVENING. ONLY A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE RIDGE WILL STALL THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. LONG RANGE  
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HOT AND  
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED WILL  
FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND  
BACK INTO THE 90S AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION DURING THE  
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /20/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 92 74 84 72 / 30 40 70 50  
MLU 97 74 93 73 / 20 10 50 30  
DEQ 96 71 90 71 / 20 10 40 70  
TXK 94 73 87 71 / 20 20 50 70  
ELD 97 71 91 71 / 20 10 40 40  
TYR 88 73 81 71 / 50 60 70 70  
GGG 89 72 83 71 / 50 60 70 70  
LFK 82 73 79 72 / 70 80 80 50  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR  
TXZ152-153-165>167.  
 

 
 

 
 
12/20  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page