340
FXUS64 KSHV 152005
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018
SHORT TERM
/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
COLD AND RAINY SHORT-TERM PERIOD AHEAD. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT
COMPLETELY S OF OUR REGION THIS AFTN, WITH PORTIONS OF OUR N AND W
ALREADY DOWN INTO THE 40S. CAA TO CONTINUE TO LEAD TO FALLING
TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS TO HOLD NEAR-STEADY THEREAFTER, AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN MOVE OVERHEAD.
DISTURBED SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC,
PRODUCING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE PD. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE 850 MB
FRONT, BUT MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY AGREE AS TO WHERE THIS WILL
SET UP. HAVE STAYED MORE WITH THE EURO SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN/HIGHER POPS, AS IT SEEMS TO SPLIT
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
RAIN TO BEGIN LETTING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD, AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS BEGINS TO NOSE BACK WWD. /12/
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SW STATES BRINGING SW FLOW INTO AREA WILL
BE REPLACED BY NW FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
CASCADES, SPILLING CANADIAN AIR BACK INTO REGION AND BRINGING IN
DRIER AIR ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY. TAPERING OFF RAIN CHANCES DURG THE
DAY FROM THE NORTH.
THIS RELIEF FROM THE RAIN MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
AROUND BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER SW STATES BEGINS TO OVERRUN THE
SHALLOW COLDER AIR OVER EAST TX. GFS AGGRESSIVE BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK INTO AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ECMWF AND NAM MUCH MORE GRADUAL
AND BEGIN TO BRING -RA INTO AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW OPENS UP AND KICKS OUT ACROSS PLAINS, COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
AREA IN NW FLOW. RAIN CHANCES TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, AND THEN WILL DECREASE FROM THE
NORTH LATER ON SATURDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP THE AUTUMN TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 50S AND POSSIBLY INTO 40S
WITH RADIATION COOLING BY LATER IN THE WKND, AND DAYTIME HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S. /07/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
PD, AS RAIN AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE N
AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PD. /12/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 49 53 49 59 / 80 90 60 20
MLU 51 54 49 60 / 50 70 60 20
DEQ 45 50 46 64 / 70 80 50 10
TXK 46 48 45 59 / 90 90 60 20
ELD 46 51 47 60 / 80 80 60 20
TYR 46 50 47 58 / 90 90 60 20
GGG 48 51 48 59 / 90 90 60 20
LFK 53 54 51 60 / 70 70 50 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
12/07
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