237
FXUS64 KSHV 290558
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A LOW-END CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO QUICKLY OVERSPREAD AREAS WEST
OF I-49 AFTER SUNSET AS ANTICIPATED. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DRIFT ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARK-LA-TEX BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ENTER THE AREA WITH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE (E.G. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7+ C/KM) FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL (AND SOME
DAMAGING WINDS), ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. COMBINED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE, THE
FOLLOWING TROUGH, DEPICTED IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE, WILL CARRY
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING RAIN. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
ALIGNMENT OF ENOUGH COLD AIR, MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR THIS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, ALL OF THIS STILL ADDS UP TO A 20-30% CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL
(MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S, MINIMUMS IN THE 40S) UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT AIR MASS IS USHERED IN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER:
MAXIMUMS IN THE 50S, MINIMUMS IN THE 20S-30S AT THE COLDEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
MID-LEVEL CEILINGS AROUND 10KFT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO AROUND 5-7KFT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER A PERIOD OF -RA (WITH VCTS ALSO POSSIBLE) FOR MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED/HIT-OR-MISS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE
SATURDAY EVENING. VFR CEILINGS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS MAINLY KTYR TO KTXK WHERE CIGS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR TOWARDS 18Z AND THEN STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10KTS, BECOME BREEZIER
ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS AT TIMES. TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBYS WILL EXIST WITHIN HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN AND/OR ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 46 65 39 49 / 70 70 80 10
MLU 40 62 40 49 / 20 60 80 30
DEQ 39 54 27 45 / 90 90 30 0
TXK 44 59 33 47 / 80 90 60 0
ELD 39 55 32 45 / 50 90 70 10
TYR 49 66 35 48 / 80 70 70 10
GGG 46 66 35 48 / 70 70 80 10
LFK 47 71 40 51 / 50 60 90 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...23
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