167
FXUS64 KSHV 211914
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
- WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND,
DRIER AIR BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POISED TO RETURN TO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
IN COMPARISON TO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TODAY, RADAR HAS BEEN MUCH
LESS BUSIER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BUT, SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION IS IN RESPONSE TO
A LEAD SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. DECIDED TO KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
TODAY, AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE ALONG THE FLOW.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS TODAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-30, OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN AREAS, HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHORT-TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST & CENTRAL LOUISIANA, ESSENTIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN,TX...TO...NATCHITOCHES,LA...TO
MONROE,LA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING. A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE THE SAME ROUTE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, MOVING OUT
OF BAJA MEXICO INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME, TONIGHT'S COOL FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF I-35 IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAINFALL BY
TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ON WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ON THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY
MORNINGS. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
FOR THE 21/18Z TAF PERIOD, MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS VEERING W/NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IN THE MEANTIME, CU/STRATOCU CIGS WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR/LOW VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR SHIFTS
INTO OUR AIRSPACE WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT. S/SW WIND SPEEDS
WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING W/NW WITH FROPA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
ON SATURDAY MORNING.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 73 52 72 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 62 77 51 71 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 46 66 45 68 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 53 68 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 53 70 47 68 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 52 69 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 52 70 48 71 / 10 0 0 10
LFK 59 77 49 75 / 30 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...19
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