532
FXUS64 KSHV 271735
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1135 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- DRY, NEAR-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.
- THE NEXT ROUNDS OF RAIN RETURN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL EXISTS
(< 20%-30%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
ALOFT, A RELATIVELY ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. IN ITS WAKE, QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR STEERING PERTURBATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA EMBEDDED WITHING A SERIES OF TROUGHS SHIFTING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COMBINED
WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME COLD AIR INFILTRATION, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. THAT
SAID, GREAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ALIGNMENT OF ENOUGH
COLD AIR, MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ALL OF WHICH
STILL ONLY ADDS UP TO A 5-10% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL (MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S,
MINIMUMS IN THE 40S) UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AIR MASS IS USHERED
IN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER (MAXIMUMS IN THE 50S, MINIMUMS IN
THE 20S-30S AT THE COLDEST ON MONDAY NIGHT). /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SKIES ARE SKC OR CLOSE TO IT AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MAY RETURN
LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND BE ALMOST CALM
TONIGHT. DESPITE THE DROP IN WINDS SPEEDS, FOG DEVELOPMENT ISN'T
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 38 62 46 / 0 0 0 60
MLU 57 34 58 41 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 58 31 56 39 / 0 0 0 90
TXK 58 35 60 44 / 0 0 0 80
ELD 57 31 55 38 / 0 0 0 40
TYR 61 39 61 48 / 0 0 0 80
GGG 60 37 61 46 / 0 0 0 80
LFK 62 38 63 47 / 0 0 0 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57
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