063
FXUS64 KSHV 092003
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
THANKFULLY, THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DISTURBED ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 36-HOURS.
THIS DISTURBED ATMOSPHERE COMES WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE
LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST. GIVEN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH THE LOW, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY CONSTANT
THIS SHORT-TERM. WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS VERY
LIKELY. WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ELEVATED IN URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THIS SHORT-TERM SHOULD ALSO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL. LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID-70S. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE ON THE "COOL" SIDE FOR SUMMER, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER-90S.
/44/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
THE REMNANTS OF OUR WEAK SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING S ACROSS ECNTRL LA THURSDAY, WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
FORCING NEAR THIS FEATURE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/E TX AND POSSIBLY SRN AR. THE PROGS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE RUNS MONDAY IN SLOWING THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE, THUS MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION A LITTLE
LONGER ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX/N LA, WITH HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED THURSDAY FOR THESE AREAS, BEFORE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF AVAILABLE
HEATING/INSTABILITY. THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SSW
ALONG THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
MORE S BY FRIDAY INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED FARTHER S
INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FARTHER N
BUT DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE AND GREATER SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA, IN
VC OF THE WEAKNESS, ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY STILL REMAINS AMONGST
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A WEAKNESS ALOFT CAN
SLIDE S AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO FOCUS AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NCNTRL LA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE NBM SUGGESTS THAT THIS COULD
BE THE CASE TUESDAY, WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED FOR THE
ERN-MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA. DID NOT
DEVIATE MUCH WITH THE NBM TEMPS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BUMPING MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO EACH DAY TO ACCOMMODATE THE INCREASED
INSOLATION AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGITS TEMPS TO MUCH OF E TX BY
MONDAY, EXPANDING FARTHER E INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR/POSSIBLY WRN LA
BY TUESDAY.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH SOME STORMS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HEAVILY REDUCED CIGS AND VIS DURING IT'S DURATION. MOST
TERMINALS ARE CARRYING SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS PAST
10/12Z WITH THE MORNING CLOUD DECK.
/44/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 89 74 90 / 50 70 50 50
MLU 73 87 72 89 / 50 80 40 60
DEQ 71 92 70 92 / 60 60 30 30
TXK 74 91 73 91 / 50 70 40 40
ELD 71 86 69 87 / 60 80 40 50
TYR 76 92 75 92 / 30 60 40 40
GGG 74 90 73 90 / 40 60 40 50
LFK 75 93 74 92 / 30 60 40 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...44
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