848
FXUS64 KSHV 120628
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
128 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAT HEADLINES HAS ENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEKEND, PROMPTING AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY.
- REMNANT SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SERVING AS A TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- INTENSE HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
POSSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT LATE NEXT WEEKEND, FINALLY SIGNALING THE
HEAT RELIEF JUST TIME FOR THE ARRIVAL OF FALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE OVERARCHING WEATHER THEME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
NEXT WEEK IS THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, PROMPTING THE RETURN
OF HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES TODAY AND LIKELY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
ALTHOUGH NOT VERY PROMISING, WE WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN A LOW-END
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR
TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE AS NOTED BY THE LOWER TO MID 70S DEW POINTS.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION MAY COME FROM UPSTREAM FORCING
AS A DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS, YIELDING A LOW-END RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
ELSEWHERE, CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED WITH
BRIEF POP-UP VARIETY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT PEAK HEATING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
AS WE MOVE IN SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIM TO NONE AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS AND
EVEN SOME ISOLATED LOWER TRIPLE-DIGITS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
IT PROBABLY GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME HOPE FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF AMBIGUITY ON
JUST HOW THIS EVOLVES BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW, NBM GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW TO NEAR
NIL. PERHAPS, THE MUCH ANTICIPATED START OF THE FALL SEASON WILL
BEAR FRUIT WITH SOME WELCOME CHANGES JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, BUT WITH CURRENT
TRENDS, I HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF ANY PREVAILING GROUPS AT THIS
TIME. LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AROUND 12/09Z, WHICH COULD BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KLFK, KTXK, AND KELD TOWARDS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WILL SEE A
DIRECT IMPACT, SO I HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS FOR MOST OF OUR
SITES. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ANY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
/33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 76 98 76 / 20 10 10 0
MLU 98 75 98 75 / 20 0 20 0
DEQ 97 70 99 71 / 20 0 0 0
TXK 98 75 98 75 / 30 0 10 0
ELD 98 73 99 73 / 40 10 10 0
TYR 99 76 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 100 75 99 74 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 96 74 95 74 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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