903
FXUS64 KSHV 241200
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
700 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019
AVIATION
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE RESULTED IN
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE BY 24/15Z.
SCATTERED CU WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING AROUND SUNSET. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO MOST TAF SITES AFTER 25/06Z.
CN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LARGE AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A DRYLINE AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER
WESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE ARKLATEX. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP THE AREA PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME VERY ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES/PARISHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY
AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WILL BE THE RULE WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY
STEADY OR WARMING BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY.
CN
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX
ON TUESDAY. FRONT TO STALL AROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS IN AROUND 70 TO HIGHS AROUND 90
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COULD SEE HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OUACHITAS, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
SOUTH. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 71 93 70 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 89 69 89 68 / 10 0 0 10
TXK 90 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 91 71 92 68 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 91 71 91 70 / 10 0 0 10
GGG 91 70 91 70 / 10 0 0 10
LFK 92 72 91 70 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
09/05
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