667
FXUS64 KSHV 020654
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
154 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- ONGOING RAINS WILL LINGER AND REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYTIME ON FRIDAY.
- AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL (AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL) CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR/BELOW-NORMAL AS A RESULT OF WET
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MAXIMUMS OF MID-TO-UPPER 80S ON
AVERAGE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE TROUGHING RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CURRENTLY WET WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES TO FILL AND WEAKEN AS ANTICIPATED WHILE IT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ATTENDANT AND COINCIDENT TO THIS
TROUGHING IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE BULK OF
MULTI-DAY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE NEXT ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
MAXIMIZING IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FROM EXTRA LIFT AND MOISTURE
COLLECTING ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN BUILDING INSTABILITY, BACKGROUND
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE BULK OF EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES,
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. POST-FRONTAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS IMPACTS LATER ON INTO MONDAY
WITH 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER 0.5 INCH
INCREASING TO OVER 40% SOUTH OF I-49 ON SUNDAY.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT PAUSE OR BREAK OF THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS BACK IN ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. IT REMAINS TO BE RESOLVED IF PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
INJECTED BACK INTO THIS FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK TO RESTORE RAIN
CHANCES, AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS MAY SUGGEST. THE COMBINED
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 72-HOURS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS OF MID-TO-UPPER
80S/LOWER 60S). BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS MAY REACH THE MID-50S NORTH OF I-20 FOR A
SAMPLE OF FALL WEATHER. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
FOR THE 02/06Z TAFS, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR EAST
TEXAS AIRSPACE AND NEARBY TERMINALS. LOWER VFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DETERIORATED TO MVFR AT KTYR AND KGGG, WITH ALL AREA SITES LOOKING TO
CRATER AT MVFR OR IFR DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE
SPOTTY NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS, PREVAILING VCSH AT IMPACTED
TERMINALS. PERIODIC VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. BREAKS IN THE RAIN LOOK TO DEVELOP BY 03/00Z SOUTH AND
EAST, AHEAD OF NEW ROUNDS OF RAIN NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT, INCREASING FROM LIGHT AND NEARLY
CALM OVERNIGHT TO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SOME DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, FLASH FLOODING
WILL BY THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE FLOOD
WATCH. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 71 83 67 / 40 20 50 50
MLU 93 71 88 68 / 20 20 40 60
DEQ 80 62 76 60 / 80 30 40 30
TXK 81 66 76 62 / 80 20 40 40
ELD 88 66 82 62 / 50 20 40 50
TYR 81 69 79 66 / 80 40 60 50
GGG 85 68 82 64 / 60 30 50 60
LFK 88 71 85 68 / 40 20 60 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26
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