419
FXUS64 KSHV 210415
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1015 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 912 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES ARE TRENDING COOLER THAN
EXPECTED. AFTER COMPARING THIS WITH SOME NEW MODEL DATA, AND
EXPECTING SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, I HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. IN DOING SO, PORTIONS
OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES, MAINLY MCCURTAIN, SEVIER, AND HOWARD
COUNTIES COULD DROP BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THIS AREA ARE ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S AS OF 21/03Z AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, I HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE 3 AFOREMENTIONED
COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8:00 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION, SOME AREAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FREEZE WARNING COULD
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT AND TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING, SO PRECAUTION SHOULD BE USED WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS. /33/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
REINFORCING NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION. TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS
VEERING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW. BY TOMORROW, THAT MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO GAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THAT SAID,
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TONIGHT, PLAYING AN IMPORTANT
ROLE IN THE FREEZING TEMPERATURE THRESHOLD NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR WITH A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN AN AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN IDABEL, OK AND DE QUEEN,
AR. ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THAT AREA FROM GREATER
CHANCES OF THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR, HOWEVER, ISSUANCE OF THE
FREEZE WARNING HAZARD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WILL
REMAIN UNDER CONSIDERATION LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S,
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. /16/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY AND NEAR-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
IS DUE TO LARGE-SCALE RIDGING, EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, THAT WEAKENS/FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY, WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY WINDS. SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS FROM NEAR-
NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOW-TO-
MID 60S, RESPECTIVELY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE, WITH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ZONAL FLOW OVERRUNNING A SLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MAKING FOR A POTENTIALLY WET AND COOL THANKSGIVING DAY IN SOME
AREAS. /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH DIRECTIONS
VARYING FROM WSW TO WNW. WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING, LOOK FOR SUSTAINED WNW WINDS NEAR 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 22KTS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 40 67 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 40 66 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 30 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 40 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 34 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 40 66 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 38 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 37 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051.
LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...13
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