164
FXUS63 KGLD 310516
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1016 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING.
- WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 F ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
HAVE SEEN AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING FOG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN COLORADO. AN ADVANCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MAY LEAD TO SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE,
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
MORNING. MOST VISIBILITY FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. AM A
LITTLE SKEPTICAL IT WILL GET THAT LOW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
LITTLE SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT
OVERALL FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE OR WILL BE VERY
SHALLOW. CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS AROUND 5%. IF FOG IS ABLE TO
FORM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING LEADING TO
FREEZING FOG CONCERNS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING TO OCCUR
ON ELEVATED SURFACES. ALBEIT THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON WEEKEND MORNING TRAVEL WAS ENOUGH OF A
NUDGE TO INCLUDE AT LEAST PATCHY WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS IT HAS DONE SO, HIGHER
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE PLAINS, WITH A PSEUDO COLD FRONT
PUSHING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE COLDER AIR AND
FRONT, SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, DRIER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE AND A LACK OF ORGANIZATION HAVE LED TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
THE SNOW CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHILE
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD SCRAPE COUNTIES LIKE NORTON
AND GRAHAM (ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTIES) AND BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND POTENTIALLY THE NEGATIVES. THE CHANCE
FOR NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES HAS LOWERED AS THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH FORECAST
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP AS
MUCH. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAN NORTON, GRAHAM, AND MAYBE
SURROUNDING COUNTIES COULD REACH -15F WIND CHILLS TONIGHT. BUT THE
HIGH WEAKENING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER TRYING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
MAYBE JUST LEAD TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS INSTEAD.
TOMORROW, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS SHOULD PUSH OFF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND END
MOST OF THE SNOW CHANCES. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH IS
SUGGESTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD AGAIN BE FAIRLY MINIMAL, IF ANY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, THOSE TO THE EAST ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH THE COMBINATION OF BEING CLOSER TO
THE COLDER AIR MASS AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY. TO THE WEST, AWAY FROM THE COLD AIR MASS AND WHERE CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
40S AND 50S. TOMORROW NIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SHIFT MORE EAST
OVER THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A LIGHTER FLOW OVER THE
AREA AND GENERALLY KEEP WINDS AROUND 12 MPH OR LESS AND GUSTS BELOW
20 MPH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, UNLESS
THE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS THICK AS TEMPERATURES WILL THEN LIKELY CAP
IN THE 50S. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PATTERN AS ANY STRONGER
WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE WARM
AND DRY PATTERN ALLOWING RH TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE 20S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING, WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LEE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS
TO OCCUR NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. A BRIEF RETURN FLOW WOULD BE ABLE TO SET
UP DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY, WHICH COULD
PROVIDE WARMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-50S AND LOW-60S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO FULLY REPLACE THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
BETWEEN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
CORRESPOND TO EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH, AND CREATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. COOLING IS
FORECASTED TO TAKE PLACE ONCE THIS OCCURS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-20S MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW
DUSTINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED COOLING WOULD PROMOTE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-50S TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID-20S. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-20S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S DO NOT IMPLICATE
FIRE WEATHER AS A CONCERN, BUT UNCONTROLLED FIRES COULD SPREAD MORE
RAPIDLY THAN NORMAL IN THESE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SNOW
DUSTINGS/SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS ABOUT AN INCH IN
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO BE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS COULD ALLOW SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
BE EJECTED INTO THE INTERIOR UNITED STATES, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF HIGHER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
AS EARLY AS THE LATE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WOULD BE EJECTED SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST, WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OUT AHEAD. AS
THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WOULD BE
FORCED SOUTHWARD, WHICH WOULD WORK WITH THE INCOMING LOW TO CREATE
WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PROCESS COULD REACH INTO THE
LOW TO MID-60S. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-HUMIDITY AIR WOULD BE ALLOWED TO
ENTER THE FORECAST REGION FROM THE MOUNTAINS. RH VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-TEENS IN COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO COULD PRESENT SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. IF RH VALUES CAN FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID-TEENS, AND WIND
GUSTS CAN HOLD TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED, A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST, SURFACE
WINDS WOULD SHIFT TO APPROXIMATELY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THIS COULD TAKE PLACE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER-50S ACROSS THE REGION, BUT A FASTER WIND
SHIFT ON THURSDAY INSTEAD OF FRIDAY COULD LOWER THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EJECTION
COULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER PERIOD
OF WARMING GOING INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
FRUSTRATING CEILING FORECAST FOR GLD AS THE TERMINAL IS LOCATED
ON THE EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK. WITH THE WAY THE EVENING HAS GONE
THUS FAR AND WITH THE WAY THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK
IS MORPHING IT SEEMS AS IF TEMPORARY VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY AND MORE FREQUENT THAN IFR FOR OVER THE TERMINAL. STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR AS THE KITR TERMINAL IS AT
007 FOOT CEILINGS. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY THROUGH THE
NEXT 4-6 HOURS BEFORE A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOLID MVFR TO
POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS MOVES THROUGH AROUND 13Z. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MCK IS MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TO GLD WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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