187
FXUS63 KGLD 281636
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1036 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN COLORADO,
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP
TO QUARTER SIZED.
- FOG, PERHAPS DENSE, AND FROST IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL AROUND 12Z AS INITIAL ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BUT MODELS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT
BY 18Z FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING
IN THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST
BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVES OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST BY THE CAMS BY AROUND 21Z IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, NAMELY LOW
CAPE/HIGH SHEAR, WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS MAY SOMEWHAT COMPENSATE AND
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE VERY ISOLATED, ENDING BY 01-02Z WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING AND AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT. TUESDAY NIGHT,
MODELS SHOW FOG DEVELOPING EAST OF A WRAY, COLORADO, TO HOXIE,
KANSAS, LINE AFTER 06Z AND PERSISTING TO ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN THOSE AREAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, STILL IN THE CONFLUENT AREA OF NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH EMBEDDED WAVES IN BOTH, WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. STARTING TIME APPEARS A BIT EARLIER, AS EARLY AS
18Z, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS, WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG, EXCEPT THE NAMNEST
WHICH SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG BUT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENT, ANYWHERE FROM 40-60 KTS, SO CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LOW SEVERE THREAT, MAINLY HAIL, WITH DCAPE
STILL ON THE LOW SIDE SUGGESTING WIND WILL BE UNLIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, SO THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
THURSDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE
FROM 44-87% THURSDAY, WITH THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA ON THE
HIGHER END. RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES AFTER SUNDOWN, BUT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 20-65% OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.
WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH IT IS
WEAKER OVERALL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. POPS OF
25-55% ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA). TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S.
GOING IN TO THE WEEKEND, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RIDGE PATTERN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 70S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGH TEENS WITH WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR THE WESTERN CWA. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, BUT STILL SOMETHING
TO MONITOR FOR AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. MONDAY, WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
A ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST
COAST. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GREATLY VARY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KGLD WILL BREAK FREE OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 19Z, BUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY (15% CHANCE) OCCUR BEFORE CONDITION
IMPROVE. THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM COLORADO AND DROP THE AIRPORT BACK TO
MVFR. THIS CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END BY 0Z, FOLLOWED
BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR FOG TO
IMPACT KGLD TOMORROW MORNING AND MORE STORMS TOMORROW ARE
POSSIBLE.
KMCK WILL HOLD ONTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL CLOSER TO 22Z. WE
ARE EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS TO IMPACT KMCK BEFORE THEN,
POTENTIALLY DROPPING THE AIRPORT TO IFR. WINDS LOOK TO LARGELY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF VFR THIS
EVENING BEFORE FOG MOVES IN. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS IFR
VISIBILITIES, BUT THIS COULD EASILY DROP TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS.
THIS COULD ALSO BE FREEZING FOG, LEADING TO RAPID ICING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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