004
FXUS63 KGLD 192332
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, CULMINATING IN RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (FOR THE
MONTH OF MARCH) ON SATURDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 ON SATURDAY.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY MORNING. BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
- COOLER (ALBEIT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE) HIGHS IN THE 60'S EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY: A PRONOUNCED BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME (POORLY-DEFINED
MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT) ACROSS THE REGION. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED WARMING TREND, WITH
HIGHS ~82-87F (TODAY) AND 84-89F (FRI). LIGHT WINDS WILL,
FORTUNATELY, LIMIT/MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
BRIEF, LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SPORADIC NW WIND GUSTS ~20-25 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: THE FINAL, AND HOTTEST, DAY OF THE 'HEAT WAVE'.
EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (FOR THE DATE AND MONTH OF
MARCH) IN THE MID-UPPER 90'S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL
WEAKEN/FLATTEN ON SAT, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ASHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST (SAT MORNING) RAPIDLY PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT EVENING. A BROAD LEE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /WESTERLY/ FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE ROCKIES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP TO
850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LEE
TROUGH WILL FOSTER BREEZY (~20-30 G 35 MPH) SW WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-WESTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST
OF HWY 83 IN GOVE, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.. WHERE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 (IN THE GOODLAND CWA), NEAR/WITHIN
THE AXIS OF THE LEE TROUGH (A LOCAL MINIMUM IN THE MSLP-850 MB
HEIGHT GRADIENT) WHERE SW TO W LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK
(~5-15 KNOTS) AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRESENTLY INDICATE < 20
KNOT FLOW IN THE LOWEST 10,000 FT AGL (THROUGHOUT A DEEP MIXED-
LAYER).. IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT WINDS WOULD PRECLUDE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL
ACCOMPANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
(SAT NIGHT) AND UPPER MIDWEST (SUN). AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT, USHERING
A COLDER AIRMASS (850 MB TEMPS +5 TO +10) INTO THE TRI-STATE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. 12 UTC 03/19 OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO VARY BY ~6 HOURS W/REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT,
INDICATING THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS
~06-12Z SUN / 12-6 AM MDT (ECMWF) OR AS LATE AS ~12-17Z SUN /
6-11 AM MDT (GFS). ABRUPT PRESSURE RISES ACCOMPANYING AND
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL FOSTER A PERIOD
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KNOTS,
SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO ~50 MPH.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VERY MUCH DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE 50'S (EARLY
FRONTAL PASSAGE, ECMWF SOLUTION) TO UPPER 60'S (LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE, GFS SOLUTION) WITH MINIMUM RH READINGS NO LOWER THAN
~20-30%. BARRING A SIGNIFICANT DELAY IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (3-6
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION), CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: DEJA VU. 12Z 03/19 OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A RESURRECTION OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
BLOCKING HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, SUGGESTING A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND CULMINATING IN RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ~90F BY MID-
WEEK (WEDNESDAY MARCH 25).. FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND LATE-
WEEK AS THE BLOCKING HIGH/RIDGE FLATTENS AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
RAPIDLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (MARCH 20-21). HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS
ARE LISTED BELOW (IN FAHRENHEIT). NOTE: * INDICATES A RECORD SET
ON MULTIPLE YEARS. FOR SIMPLICITY, THE MOST RECENT RECORD IS
LISTED.
=================================
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 20 (FRI)
=================================
BURLINGTON.........87 IN 1907
GOODLAND...........90 IN 1907
HILL CITY..........88 IN 1916
MCCOOK.............85 IN 1997*
=================================
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 21 (SAT)
=================================
BURLINGTON.........84 IN 2011
GOODLAND...........84 IN 2011*
HILL CITY..........93 IN 1907
MCCOOK.............89 IN 1910
=================================
MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS (MARCH)
=================================
BURLINGTON......93 ON 03-19-1921
GOODLAND........90 ON 03-20-1907*
HILL CITY.......94 ON 03-16-2015*
MCCOOK..........93 ON 03-16-2015*
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ252.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...CA/TRIGG
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