729
FXUS63 KGLD 161000
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
TODAY-TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 700-500MB HUMIDITY
REACHES FAR EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON MOVING INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 700MB AND 500MB
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM SUGGESTING THAT A VERY LOW THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 3F TO 5F ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO MONDAY
SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 99F TO 103F RANGE. BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS DID BETTER YESTERDAY AND SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100. BLENDING THE TWO PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 WHICH IS WHAT WE'LL GO WITH. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE 70-74F RANGE FROM
MCCOOK TO OAKLEY AND POINTS EAST.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE 700-
500MB LAYER AND SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT MOVES INTO AREA IN A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 700MB
AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM ONCE AGAIN AND SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO, 100 TO 105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN
THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND -3C
FURTHER SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 100-
105F RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST,
LOW/MID 70S IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SPANNING MOST OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FRIDAY MERITS MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE HEAT MESSAGING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN MOST
AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT OR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
EAST OF HWY 83 IN KANSAS.
IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 20 PERCENT OR
BELOW IN THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
WEST OF KANSAS HWY 27. PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES DO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10 MPH. WILL
WANT TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-90S IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW 100S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF HWY 83, SO
WILL WANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HEAT RELATED
MESSAGING. MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
CYCLONE WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW DUE TO CONCERNS OF AREAL
COVERAGE BEING SPOTTY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON US AS IT TRACKS
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-80S TO MID-90S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S. CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS
AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FROM 17Z
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE
01Z-03Z TIMEFRAME AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER OR BE NEAR
THE TERMINAL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS
AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...99
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