068
FXUS63 KGLD 182029
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
129 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 55-65 MPH.
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. FIRES
WILL EXHIBIT EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND BE IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTROL.
- A BLOWING DUST WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
BROWNOUT CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST, DRAGGING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND THE
CLOUD COVER INHIBITS MIXING, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND AND BLOWING DUST HAZARDS
WILL STILL CONTINUE FOR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA UNTIL ABOUT 2-3PM
MT / 3-4PM CT. AS THE AREA GETS CLOSER TO SUNSET, THE INVERSION
SHOULD KICK IN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE THE WINDS
GO CALM FOR A BIT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE EVENING IS FORECAST TO HAVE CALM CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARER SKIES SHOULD COOL A BIT
MORE INTO THE 20S. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS IT
DOES SO, THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE BIT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS SHOULD MIX THE LOWER LEVELS
AND EITHER STEADY TEMPERATURES, OR WARM THEM A BIT INTO THE 30S.
TOMORROW, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND HELP PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE AREA. THE SAVING GRACE THIS TIME IS THAT THE
TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING HOW INTENSE THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS. THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE BROAD ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH. AS LONG AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ISN'T OVER THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY GUST
AROUND 25-35 MPH. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER THAT COULD HAVE RH IN THE MID-TEENS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
LIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT IS FORECAST TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IF IT IS THICK ENOUGH, TEMPERATURES WON'T BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S, KEEPING RH ABOVE 17%. STILL, MIGHT WANT
TO BE CAREFUL WITH FIRE AS RECENT DRYNESS AND THE CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. AS IT
DOES, THE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN A BIT TO AROUND 5-15 MPH. WHILE THE
WINDS MAY LIGHTEN A BIT, THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THE BACKSIDE OF
FRIDAY'S FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGHER ON THE WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, BUT
CURRENTLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. SKIES
ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES AS THE
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO AND CONCENTRATE OVER THE AREA.
CHRISTMAS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND WARM AS THE UPPER
FLOW SHOULD EITHER BE ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY RIDGED. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND THE 5 TO 15
MPH RANGE WITH OVERALL LIGHTER FLOW. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST AS DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A TROUGH TO
SNEAK INTO THE ZONAL FLOW AND BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE
THERE IS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO
NEXT WEEK THAT IS COOLER AND A BIT WINDIER COMPARED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. EVEN SO, I'M NOT OVERLY CONCERNED THAT THERE WILL BE
ANYTHING HAZARDOUS AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THE BACKSIDE OF
FRIDAY'S FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGHER ON THE WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, BUT
CURRENTLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. SKIES
ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES AS THE
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO AND CONCENTRATE OVER THE AREA.
CHRISTMAS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND WARM AS THE UPPER
FLOW SHOULD EITHER BE ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY RIDGED. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND THE 5 TO 15
MPH RANGE WITH OVERALL LIGHTER FLOW. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST AS DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A TROUGH TO
SNEAK INTO THE ZONAL FLOW AND BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE
THERE IS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO
NEXT WEEK THAT IS COOLER AND A BIT WINDIER COMPARED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. EVEN SO, I'M NOT OVERLY CONCERNED THAT THERE WILL BE
ANYTHING HAZARDOUS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-60 KTS ARE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. AROUND THAT TIME, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KTS AROUND 00Z. BLOWING DUST
HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND CAUSING VISIBILITY TO VARY BETWEEN 3-7SM.
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR 1SM OR LESS, ESPECIALLY FOR
KMCK. THE DUST THREAT SHOULD ALSO LOWER AND END BETWEEN 21-00Z.
ONCE EVERYTHING CALMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THE WINDS
HOWEVER, SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE CLOSE TO 12Z AS
THE TROUGH FINISHES SWINGING EAST AND BRINGS A NARROW AREA OF
45-50 KTS WINDS AROUND 300FT THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN HIGH FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WANES AROUND
9-10AM MT. DESPITE HUMIDITY VALUES BEING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WHICH IS ABOVE OUR HUMIDITY CRITERIA OF 15% WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH ANY FIRE THAT WERE TO START WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
AS GFDI (GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX) IN THE EXTREME VALUES FOR
MOST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DO HAVE CONCERNS
OF THE HIGHER END OF THE WIND GUST SPECTRUM PANNING OUT FOR
TODAY DUE TO MIXING HEIGHTS OF 4500-5000' WHICH WOULD PUT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LEVEL IN A 60-70 KNOT JET. SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME 75-80 MPH GUSTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN
AS WELL FOR THE AREA WHICH WOULD MAKE RESPONDING TO ANY FIRE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A FEW CASES OVER THE
PAST FEW YEARS WHERE STATIC BUILDUP FROM DUST HAS LED TO NEW
FIRE STARTS SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
FRIDAY, AGAIN WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE WINDS HOWEVER WHICH WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AT. SO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY THE 19TH.
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 68 IN 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST 70.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 63 IN 1941, 1966 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST 63.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 1949... CURRENT FORECAST 61.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 70 IN 1979.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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