470
FXUS63 KGLD 280032
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
632 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO WED
MORNING. LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 ARE MOST PRONE.
- MILD/DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
OVERVIEW: THE PRIMARY BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES /
NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER-LEVELS,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE W
LATE WED MORNING.. AS THE LEE TROUGH PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS.. THEN
SHIFT TO THE ENE LATE WED AND WED NIGHT.. AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
RIDGE (ASSOC/W MODEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND DAKOTAS) EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
CO-KS.
TONIGHT-WED MORNING: RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(ALONG/NORTH OF I-70, IN PARTICULAR) AFTER SUNSET AND THAT
DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. GIVEN THAT
(1) TODAY'S DENSE FOG PERSISTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, (2) THAT, AS
OF 2045 UTC, STRATUS/LOW CEILINGS ARE STILL PRESENT OVER
NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST NE AND (3) THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE LOW-LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT, THIS SEEMS PRETTY
REASONABLE. WITH A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING, DENSE FOG WOULD LIKELY ABATE FROM WEST TO EAST NO LATER
THAN 15-18Z (9A-12P MDT WED).
WED AFTERNOON: EXPECT A WEST-EAST CLEARING TREND, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60'S TO MID 70'S.
WED NIGHT: EASTERLY /UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
FACILITATE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
TODAY'S 18Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GOODLAND CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THU. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S, COOLEST
IN EASTERN CO AND SOUTHWEST NE, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. LOWS
COULD OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY (BY MIDNIGHT) IN SOME AREAS,
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING, LOCATION AND EXTENT OF STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
THU-THU NIGHT: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RENEWED LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IN CO WILL RE-ESTABLISH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES, WHICH
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND UPON FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY.
HIGHS MAY RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE LOWER 50'S TO UPPER 60'S. LOW
STRATUS/FOG AND AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD FOSTER RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT (FRI MORNING)
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER- LEVEL FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST (PNW). SUNDAY, A SECOND DEEP DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN WILL MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE PNW, BUT MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW THIS
INTERACTION WILL PLAY OUT. THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THESE
TROUGHS WILL DETERMINE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, THE FIRST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE OF A CUT
OFF LOW SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT WOULD GENERALLY KEEP
OUR REGION IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH VARIOUS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS)
ARE AROUND 20- 60% FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING WEST TO
EAST. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY IS OVERALL WEAK FRIDAY WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND
SPOTTY CAPE VALUES OF <500 J/KG, SO A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION IF IT IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
MONDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES PAN OUT, BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
TEMPERATURE WISE, FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE PLEASANT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S. SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WE COOL SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS OUR
COLORADO COUNTIES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST SNOW OF THE
SEASON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OVERALL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WEEKEND FORECAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT IT IS 7 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WED MORNING..
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL AND MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT GOODLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. DENSE FOG AND/OR
VERY LOW CEILINGS (100-300 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO WED MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING (~15-18Z) AND
THAT A CLEARING TREND WILL FOLLOW, DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW OR N
LATE WED MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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