320
FXUS63 KGLD 182238
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BIT COOLER TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOW 90S.
- SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS END OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAIN DAYS FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK TO BE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- COOLER AND WET PATTERN IS FORECAST TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK
AND EVEN POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
TODAY, A HIGH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, LEADING TO
SOME VARIABLE WINDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KTS RANGE ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE INVERSION SETS UP. HIGHS STILL
LOOK TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S TODAY AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST, A LOW SLOWLY FORMS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND REMAINS THERE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FUNNEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA, DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT.
FRIDAY, THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE A LOT AND HIGHS LOOK TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 15-25
KTS RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT EASTERN COLORADO MAY BRIEFLY
SEE SOME 30 KTS GUSTS BEFORE NOON. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A 305K
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PRODUCES A
20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF U.S. 83 AFTER 18Z.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY FROM THIS CONVECTION, IT WOULD LIKELY
BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL STRIKES OF LIGHTNING.
FRIDAY EVENING, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE IS NOT LINING UP AS TO WHERE THIS CONVECTION WILL OCCUR,
BUT IT FAVORS NORTH OF U.S. 40 AND EAST OF KS 25. HOWEVER, SOME CAMS
ARE SHOWING THE CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER. HAIL
UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. PEAK TIME FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE BETWEEN 1-6Z. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL
INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
SATURDAY, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW TO FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, WITH WARMEST LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY DEPENDENT
ON HOW STRONG THE WAA IS DURING THE DAY. THANKS TO THAT LOW MOVING
EAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO GUST INTO THE 25-33 KTS RANGE.
IN THE MID-AFTERNOON IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE BULK OF THAT LOW
ENTER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS IS WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION
BEGIN, LIKELY AROUND 21-23Z. INITIALLY, A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
LOOKS TO FIRE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COLORADO BORDER, EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE CWA. WITHIN 2-4 HOURS, IT LOOKS TO
MORPH INTO A MESSY QLCS WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS POTENTIALLY FORMING
AHEAD OF THE STORM AND BEING INGESTED. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT
THIS COMPLEX WILL FORM INTO AND MCS IN THE EASTERN CWA BEFORE
CONTINUING OUT OF THE CWA. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO EXIT THE CWA
AROUND 9Z TO THE EAST. PEAK SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 0-6Z,
WHEN ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING HAIL, WIND, BLOWING
DUST, FLASH FLOODING, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS CONVECTION AND THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE CWA,
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME NORTHERLY. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
WORK TO KEEP LOW PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE NIGHT BEFORE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME STORM PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE SETTING UP WITH
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SEMI
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THE CWA. MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN SATURDAY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1-1.5
INCHES. THE SIGNAL REMAINS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW MCS'S TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS AT LEAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY; AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEAK AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. DEPENDENT ON HOW SATURDAY AND EACH
PREVIOUS DAY PANS OUT ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD ARE A LITTLE ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS
THEY POTENTIALLY COULD END UP A LITTLE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ANYONE DAY DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY
PRECIPATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS WELL. IF THE HIGH WERE TO SET UP A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST MORE SO OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
INSTEAD OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WHICH IS WHAT GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
KGLD AND KMCK. WE ARE EXPECTING GUSTS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
NIGHT AROUND 15-22 KTS AND BE FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 18-25 KTS WILL
BECOME MORE COMMON. SHOWERS MAY START IMPACTING KMCK NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD, BUT LARGELY OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING 0C LEVEL TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP
MELTING LAYERS. SATURDAY IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DAY COMING UP, WHERE
A MCS LOOKS TO FORM ACROSS THE CWA AND MAY PRODUCE 0.5-1.5+ INCHES
OF QPF IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2-
2.5 INCHES.
BETWEEN THE HIGH QPF VALUES ON SATURDAY AND THE FOLLOWING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT
A FLASH FLOODING RISK. AREAS THAT ARE AT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SEEING A FLOODING RISK ARE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
TRENTON, NE TO QUINTER, KS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
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