993  
FXUS63 KGLD 242344  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
544 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020  
 
TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER  
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN NEARLY  
STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED TO THE WEST ALONG  
THE WEST COAST DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO  
MID 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER TO THE UPPER 90S TO  
AROUND 100 DEGREES FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE AND POINTS SOUTH. LOWS  
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY  
LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.  
 
SUNDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND SATURDAY NIGHTS COLD  
FRONT. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP ABOUT 22F TO 27F SUPPORTING A HOST OF  
BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS IN YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH WINDS  
FROM THE NORTH.  
 
THE 12Z NAM AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z GFS ARE  
SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST GENERALLY IN THE MID  
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL  
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING BLOWING DUST IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME  
GIVEN ITS 3 DAYS OUT BUT IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE  
THREAT TOMORROW I'LL ADD SOME BLOWING DUST TO THE FORECAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES  
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PRESENT OVER THE THE TRI-STATE AREA  
WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE  
CAA INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING TO THE SE  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/ NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH MAY ALLOW AN  
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF  
THE CWA; MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AS THE SURFACE  
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LOW. I AM HOWEVER LEAVING LOW END  
SHOWER/STORM POPS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF BEGINNING TO SHOW A  
HINT OF SOME RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF  
NW FLOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, LEAVING THE CWA  
UNDER A SHORT LIVED RIDGING SCENARIO ON MONDAY WHICH WILL HAVE  
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN  
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BRINGING AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS,  
HOWEVER MY THINKING IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL YET PASS THROUGH  
WITHOUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CAA  
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF  
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN OVER THE  
TRI-STATE AREA. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED BOTH  
DAYS.  
 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE  
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70'S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS  
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE EVEN COOLER  
THAN THAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT; HIGHS THOSE  
DAYS WILL BE IN THE 60'S. LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING COULD GET DOWN INTO  
THE UPPER 30'S ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WHILE OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA  
REMAIN IN THE 40'S. MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LOWS IN THE 30'S ARE  
POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY MORNINGS MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL FROST AS  
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020  
 
EXCELLENT AVIATION WEATHER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE  
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE  
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-NNW AND INCREASE TO  
10-17 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~15Z) -- VEERING TO THE  
N-NE AND WEAKENING TO 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON (18-21Z).  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020  
 
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE  
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:  
 
----------------------------------  
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 25  
----------------------------------  
BURLINGTON..........95 SET IN 1998  
COLBY...............96 SET IN 1966  
TRIBUNE.............96 SET IN 2005  
 
----------------------------------  
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 26  
----------------------------------  
GOODLAND............90 SET IN 2008 AND PREVIOUS YEARS  
MCCOOK..............96 SET IN 1919  
BURLINGTON..........91 SET IN 2008  
HILL CITY...........96 SET IN 2013  
TRIBUNE.............99 SET IN 1998  
YUMA................91 SET IN 1999  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...TT  
AVIATION...VINCENT  
CLIMATE...99  
 
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