678
FXUS63 KGLD 241950
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SUNNY SKIES AREA-WIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AS OF
100 PM MDT ARE RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S. WITH A
RIDGE AXIS NOSING ACROSS THE REGION, AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE ARE SEEING W/NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH AT TIMES.
LOCALES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE ARE SEEING LIGHT/VARIABLE
CONDITIONS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT, THE CURRENT
WIND REGIME WILL SLACKEN GOING INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE AREA, SETTING UP EAST GOING INTO MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MAKE A SLOW TRUDGE EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM IS BLOCKED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A ZONAL TO NW FLOW ALOFT
DURING THE TIME.
ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE FRONT RANGE SETTING
UP SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY,
SETTING UP A SURFACE FLOW TO MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL
850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM +20C TO +24C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER 48 HRS OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
FOCUS ON AN ELEVATED FIRE WX RISK FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, BUT
WINDS WILL NOT REACH CRITERIA. THE THREAT DECREASES TUESDAY WITH
MORE OF AN EASTERLY SURFACE FETCH, PUSHING THE DRIER AIR FURTHER
INTO COLORADO AWAY FROM THE WESTERN CWA PERIPHERY. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO OUTLOOKS FROM THE SPC IN THE DAY 1-3 PERIODS. LATEST
CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY POTENTIAL RW/TRW TUESDAY, BUT SOME COULD
FORM SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTY AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY, WITH
80S AREA-WIDE, WARMEST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THESE HIGHS WILL
COME OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S THEREAFTER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
FOR THE EXTENDED, THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS REGION THAT MAKES A SLOW TRANSITION EASTWARD
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW DIGS EASTWARD AS
IT ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THIS WILL GIVE THE ENTIRE
REGION EXTENSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE FRONT RANGE, SETTING UP
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE LOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE
GFS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR RW TO FORM OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
WORKING ALONG THE WESTERN CWA PERIPHERY, BUT THE TWO MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT, SO WILL LEAVE OFF THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP FOR NOW. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE MIGHT HAPPEN FOR THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, PUSHING THE SURFACE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS ALLOWING
FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO IMPACT THE AREA.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA,
THERE WILL BE STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT
COULD IMPACT THE CWA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW FAIRLY STAGNANT, THE
GRADIENT LOOKS BEST EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER, WHERE A PERSISTENT
25-35 MPH WILL OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE FIRE WX
CONCERNS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27(RH CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS),
BUT OUR LOCAL BLOWING DUST PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST. FOR FIRE WX, AT LEAST ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT FOR NOW AND COULD WORSEN IF FURTHER DRYING OCCURS. WILL
BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT DUST POTENTIAL IN SOCIAL MEDIA MENTIONING.
GOING INTO NEXT SUNDAY, THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MEANDER
INTO THE CWA ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
AREAL COVERAGE COULD BE IMPACTED, LEADING TO A WARMER DAY SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE WED-SAT TIMEFRAME IS EXPECTING.
FOR TEMPS, THE REGION WILL BE LOOKING AT A DAYTIME HIGH RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S FROM WEST TO EAST FOR WEDNESDAY ON
THROUGH SATURDAY. GOING INTO NEXT SUNDAY, A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
INTO THE MID 80S IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 25, AND FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, MID
50S INTO THE LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023
BOTH TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE REGION.
WINDS FOR KGLD, W/NW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY, THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 09Z, BECOMING W 5-10KTS BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TO LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 14Z.
WINDS FOR KMCK, W/NW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z MONDAY, THEN
LIGHT/VARIABLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
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