053   
FXUS63 KGLD 282150  
AFDGLD  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
350 PM MDT MON APR 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF  
  HIGHWAY 40 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
  THE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE I-70 COUNTIES FROM  
  THOMAS COUNTY WEST INTO COLORADO AND GOVE COUNTY.  
  
- THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM  
  TUESDAY EVENING ON INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
  
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT MON APR 28 2025  
  
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY   
MIX IN THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA, AND SUNNY ELSEWHERE. THIS IS   
RESULTING FROM A SURFACE TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THE GRADIENT AHEAD   
OF THIS BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS W/SW WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH AT   
TIMES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 1 PM MT ARE RANGING IN THE 70S.  
  
THE MAIN WX CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE   
WX CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY   
EVENING HOURS. THERE ARE SCATTERED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE   
NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  
  
FIRST OFF, THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS   
AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING   
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE ADDITION OF FOUR MORE COUNTIES EARLY THIS   
MORNING.   
  
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING   
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE   
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH,   
TRIGGERING LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 15-20%   
CHANCE FOR THIS TO CONTINUE IN NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY INTO THE EARLY   
EVENING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS   
PRESENT SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY   
A COLD FRONT BY 06Z TUESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH W/ SOME GUST   
POTENTIAL TO 30 MPH THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT   
WILL BRING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS   
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY.  
  
THE 500MB TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES FORMS A CUTOFF   
LOW GOING INTO TUESDAY AS AMPLIFIED RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CWA FOR   
A NICE COOL AND DRY DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS GUIDANCE SWINGS   
THE CUTOFF LOW INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW DOES SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING   
THIS TIME ALLOWING FOR AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE   
AREA. GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF A TROUGH   
TO THE WEST LATE TUESDAY IN TERM OF SHIFTING EAST AS A FRONT AND   
POTENTIALLY MEANDERING OVER THE AREA. WITH THE TRANSITION TO A   
WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE COOLER ONE EXPECTED TUESDAY, LOOKING FOR   
CHANCES (15-20%) TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS BUT DOES EXPAND AREA-WIDE   
W/ THE FOCUS BEING THE FRONT FOR BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL AS WELL AS   
THUNDER CHANCES. A 30-40% CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY INCREASES TO AROUND A   
40-50% CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE   
FRONT SETS UP.  
  
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE ONLY IN THE 60S,   
WITH WARMEST AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY,   
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.   
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S   
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. EAST OF THERE, UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR   
TUESDAY NIGHT, SLIGHTLY WARMER 30S MAINLY IN COLORADO AND EAST OF   
THERE, MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S. AND FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UPPER 30S   
TO LOWER 40S IN COLORADO. EAST OF THERE, LOWER TO MID 40S.  
  
  
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT MON APR 28 2025  
  
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE   
PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT,   
FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.   
FROM THERE, THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY   
ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER AS TO THE POSITION/   
COVERAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM   
TO WATCH WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE   
SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR   
PRECIPITATION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE LOW'S   
ADVANCEMENT KEEPING IT IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR MON-TUE. OVERALL,   
THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE FIRST SHORTWAVE,   
INCREASING TO A 40-60% CHANCE BY MONDAY. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE   
GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE BLOCKING PATTERN NEXT WEEK.  
  
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S WEST TO   
AROUND 70F EAST, WARMEST ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ON FRIDAY, UPPER   
60S WEST INTO THE MID 70S EAST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MID 70S TO   
LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR SUNDAY. NEXT   
MONDAY, MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE   
FROM THE MID 30S WEST INTO THE LOWER 40S EAST. FROM THERE, 40S   
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO 50S AREA-WIDE.   
SLIGHTLY COOLER NEXT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 40S ALONG AND WEST OF   
HIGHWAY 25 AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EAST.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
   
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT MON APR 28 2025  
  
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS OR SO  
ARE EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 08Z. AFTER 09Z, NORTHERLY  
WINDS AROUND 10KTS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST AT SIMILAR  
SPEEDS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SUB VFR CIGS FROM  
AROUND 09Z-15Z AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES IN IT HAPPENING.   
  
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35KTS ARE FORECAST FROM  
TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 08Z. AFTER 09Z, NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND  
10KTS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AT SIMILAR  
SPEEDS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SUB VFR CIGS FROM  
AROUND 10Z-14Z AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE  
INCREASES IN IT HAPPENING. ALSO, A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR VIRGA WILL  
BE MONITORED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. THE MAIN  
IMPACT FROM THIS WOULD BE STRONG AND SUDDEN DOWNBURSTS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 50KTS POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW  
THAT THIS COULD HAPPEN AT OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT  
UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT.   
  
  
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR   
     KSZ013-014-027>029-041-042.  
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.  
NE...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...JN  
AVIATION...99  
 
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