107
FXUS63 KGLD 111610
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1010 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 3-8
PM MDT. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND DIME TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO RAPID WILDFIRE
GROWTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED. DENSE FOG DOES LINGER ACROSS
NORTON COUNTY WHERE THE AWOS AT THE NORTON AIRPORT CONTINUES TO
REPORT 1/4SM VISIBILITY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTON COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS THE COVERAGE OF
ANY LINGER FOG SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
FEATURES OF INTEREST:
[1] A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL-NORTH CALIFORNIA AT
06 UTC THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NE-NNE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST (TODAY) AND NORTHERN ROCKIES (TONIGHT), ALONG THE W AND NW
PERIPHERY OF A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
[2] ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, LOCATED
~650 MILES OFFSHORE OF OREGON AT 06Z THIS MORNING, WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS ESE ASHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT: SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ATOP A COOL, MOIST
AIRMASS HAS BIRTHED WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT ONGOING STRATUS AND FOG TO LIFT/SCATTER
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, AS LOW- LEVEL FLOW
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES VEERS TO THE S-SSW AND STRENGTHENS
TO ~25-35 KNOTS, YIELDING BREEZY (~25-30 MPH G 40 MPH) WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL (850 MB) RIDGE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE TX GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN- CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE MARGINAL TO MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RANGING FROM ~250-500 J/KG OF HIGH-BASED
MLCAPE IN EASTERN CO TO ~1000-1500 J/KG OF TALL/SKINNY MLCAPE IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, E.G. HILL CITY, WHERE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE MODEST END OF THE SPECTRUM (~7.0 C/KM).
FOCUSED UPPER FORCING / DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE [1] WILL
PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE THE REGION LATE THIS AFT-EVE,
FAR ENOUGH THAT.. THE MAJORITY OF THE TRI- STATE AREA WILL
ACTUALLY BE ON THE SUBSIDENT, ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF A ~100
KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET (EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA). WITH FORCING LARGELY
CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE LEE
TROUGH.. AND AN INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EASTERN EXTENT ACROSS KS (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE), DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO CO. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA
CURRENT/RECENT RUNS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS LINE OF REASONING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND EASTERN EXTENT OF DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION
INTO KS. EXPECT GREATEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION BETWEEN
~21-03Z IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER AREAS. FROM A
SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT, THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO ~70 MPH WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARD.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: SIMILAR PATTERN, ALBEIT WITH THE LEE TROUGH
CENTERED A BIT FURTHER EAST OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS AND
THE PLUME OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL-EASTERN KS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S TO MID 80'S, LITTLE/NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS RANGING FROM 10-20%, DRIEST ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. AT
PRESENT, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THAT BREEZY (~20-30 MPH) SW WINDS
WON'T DEVELOP UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE WATCH AREA, THE DURATION
OF THOSE CONDITIONS MAY BE ON THE SHORT END OF THE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES APPEARS FAVORED MONDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN 850-MB HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND BACK INTO
MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO
UPPER-80S, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) IN THE UPPER SINGLE-
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. WITH WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS FORECAST IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD MONDAY AFTERNOON. NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS OVER A 90% PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO, AND EVEN A 30-40% CHANCE UP INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FURTHER, LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS OVER A 50% CHANCE THAT RH VALUES
MEET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, WITH NEARLY
A 100% CHANCE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE THAT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED
CONTINUES TO INCREASE, AND IS HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AT ABOUT 40%.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS STILL FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST REGION TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TROUGH'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION. A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE FURTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A
QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR A COLD FRONT TO
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
AND POTENTIALLY MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BY
REDUCING RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST GEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE
COLD FRONT ALREADY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY, WHICH WOULD INDICATE A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. EC MEMBERS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD ALLOW DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT A 30-40%
CHANCE FOR THIS ZONE TO EXPERIENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MEETING
CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONGSIDE
NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING A 60-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 5- 10%.
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY DUE TO A DIGGING
500-MB LOW OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD EXIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF TUESDAY'S SYSTEM MAY ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES. MIXED MODES OF WET AND DRY
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH PERSISTENCE OF THE 850-MB HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WOULD
ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, AND THUS,
THE DRIER SOLUTION. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH RH VALUES FORECAST IN THE
LOW TO MID-TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS TO
MID-TEENS THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE MAY BE
EXPERIENCED BOTH DAYS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. AS
TROUGHING BEGINS TO MOVE IN OVER THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY, A
COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-60S TO
MID-70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
GLD: LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. IMPROVEMENT
WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE (~14Z). FURTHER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED A FEW HOURS LATER, DURING THE
LATE MORNING (15-17Z). ONCE LOW CEILINGS LIFT/SCATTER-OUT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP IN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE
GOODLAND TERMINAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
(~22-02Z), THOUGH.. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
LOCATION AND COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION
WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. SSE TO S WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE (~14Z). WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SW AND FURTHER STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO
~35 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S AND DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
SATURDAY EVENING, NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING (~16Z),
WITH FURTHER/RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED A FEW HOURS
LATER, BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE LOW CEILINGS LIFT/SCATTER-OUT,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SE WINDS AT ~10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE SSE-S
AND INCREASE TO ~15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (~16Z). WINDS
WILL FURTHER VEER TO THE S-SW AND STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S AND DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS SATURDAY
EVENING, NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079-080.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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