219  
FXUS63 KGLD 241023  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
423 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT: AN OCCLUDED /VERTICALLY STACKED/ CYCLONE SITUATED  
INVOF THE CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER AT 09Z THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY  
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, TRACKING EAST ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER  
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN  
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE (BRIEF, AS IT MAY BE) WILL AID  
IN DRIVING AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFT/EVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING  
CLOUD COVER, THOUGH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST.  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST FROM NV TO THE 4-CORNERS  
THIS MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DPVA  
ATTENDANT THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
AND THE ONSET OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /UPSLOPE FLOW/  
ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN  
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING-TONIGHT,  
PRIMARILY IN THE 04-10Z TIME FRAME.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP  
OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA MON-MON NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH/CYCLONE  
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO AMIDST NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  
 
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL FURTHER  
AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN  
THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A NOTICABLE WARMING TREND IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW / LOW-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE  
PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONTO SHORE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S IN MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE  
AREA WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE IN NEBRASKA.  
 
WEDNESDAY EVENING, A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA. ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST SO LEFT  
POPS OUT FOR THE TIME PERIOD.  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTLINE  
TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW  
DEVELOPING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN  
BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT OVER THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, HOWEVER THE  
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH IT'S DEVELOPMENT.  
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.  
MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
EXTENDS DIGS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE CLOSED LOW  
MOVES OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE MUCH COOLER, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S. SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE  
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED  
WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF  
THE TAF PERIOD -- PRIMARILY AT THE GLD TERMINAL BETWEEN 04-10Z  
MONDAY. WNW-NW WINDS ~10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE N AT 7-12 KNOTS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE VEERING TO THE NE-ENE-E THIS EVENING  
INTO TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...VINCENT  
LONG TERM...AW  
AVIATION...VINCENT  
 
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