876
FXUS63 KGLD 101008
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
- A BIT BREEZIER TOMORROW WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTING 25-45 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
AREA AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER LOW PRESSURE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY AS THE CURRENT LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE FRONT RANGE. THE
HAND OFF BETWEEN THE LOW MAY ALLOW PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TO HAVE A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE EARLY LOW
THAT PRODUCES SOME FOG/ LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS IS ONLY A 15% CHANCES. EVEN IT DOES FORM, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT IT LASTS MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTH. THOSE SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 40 COULD STILL REACH THE 80S DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN AND INTERRUPTS THE NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH
RELATIVELY BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA, THIS IS
FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH. THAT SHOULD HELP
KEEP ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BRIEF AND CONFINED TO
SOUTH OF I-70 AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE THE DRIEST AND
WARMS AIR IS FORECAST TO SET UP TODAY.
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS FORECAST TO BRING
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA. THE ISSUE IS THAT THE
LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY, WHICH HAS LOWERED OUR
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BELOW 10%. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALSO BEGINNING TO FILTER IN. LOW ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A COOLER AND BREEZIER DAY WITH
COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CAP
AROUND 50, EVEN UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS IN TURN IS
FORECAST TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
TWENTIES, HELPING TO PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL STILL BE INCREASED FIRE DANGER WITH
WINDS SUSTAINING FROM THE NORTH AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 45 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND INVERSION SETS UP UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
OVERVIEW (THU-FRI): NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
TRACKS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. STRONG CYCLONIC
SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A POWERFUL (~150 KNOT)
NW UPPER LEVEL JET OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, ALBERTA, MONTANA AND
THE DAKOTAS WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE CYCLONES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST.
THURSDAY: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ASSOC/W SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GOODLAND CWA,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A PROGRESSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ESE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.. WHERE
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER (35-40 KNOTS
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 36 PER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS) AND SUSTAINED
WINDS ~25-35 MPH COULD GUST AS HIGH AS ~50 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE MID 70'S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE THU NIGHT (06-12Z FRI),
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES ESE FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO GREAT LAKES. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LOW
(AND THE LOW'S EASTERLY TRACK), COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
MODEST/SHORT- LIVED AND LARGELY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT (FRI MORNING) LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 30'S.
FRIDAY: LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DIURNALLY RENEWED LEE TROUGH WILL YET AGAIN
FOSTER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID
70'S, SIMILAR TO THU. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK E-ESE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT. IN CONTRAST TO
THU, THIS SYSTEM IS LESS LIKELY TO INFLUENCE (ENHANCE) LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IN/NEAR THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE DAY. DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING (UP TO ~13 KFT AGL) AND 20-30 KNOT SW TO W MID-LEVEL FLOW
MAY, NEVERTHELESS, SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.. WEST OF HWY 83, IN PARTICULAR.
SATURDAY: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NW (DIGGING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES) WILL FOSTER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE IN COLORADO.. AND ANCHOR IT
THERE DURING THE DAY.. TEMPORARILY HOLDING A COLDER AIRMASS
(OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS) AT BAY. EXPECT FURTHER WARMING
ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70, WITH THE WORST OVERALL CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE GOODLAND
CWA. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT / SUN
MORNING, AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION. SEVERE NORTH WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY RAPID, PRONOUNCED SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR.
SUNDAY: EXPECT AN ABRUPT TRANSITION TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40'S.
FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
AROUND 55F.
MONDAY: A MODERATING TREND WILL LIKELY FOLLOW, ON MON, WITH
NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50'S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FOR KGLD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ADVANCING FRONT TO BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14-17Z.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER 00Z. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER ABOVE 10000FT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN COLD AIR MASS SWEEPING THROUGH. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AROUND 18-20Z, ANOTHER
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SWITCH WINDS
TO OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL AGAIN CHANGE WHEN THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH AFTER 03Z AND BE STRONGER AROUND 20KTS. GUSTS COULD
REACH 30-40KTS.
FOR KMCK... IFR CEILINGS ARE NOW FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE THE
TERMINAL WITH A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AROUND 1000FT OR LESS WERE
AROUND NORTH PLATTE AND MOVING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE MOISTURE LIFTS, BUT THE GREATER CHANCE IS NOW
THAT THE LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT CLOSE TO 18Z. AFTER THAT, CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN CLOUDS AT 10000FT OR HIGHER MOVE IN WITH
THE NEXT LOW. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO SWITCH TO
OUT OF THE NORTH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. AROUND 18-20Z, ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SWITCH WINDS TO OUT OF THE SOUTH.
WINDS WILL AGAIN CHANGE WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AFTER 03Z AND
BE STRONGER AROUND 20KTS. GUSTS COULD REACH 30-40KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FOR TODAY, THE AREA COULD SEE SOME BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS, BUT ONLY FOR LOCALES
SOUTH OF I-70 AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE LIMITER ON THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE THE WIND WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
GENERALLY KEEPING WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY
AREA, AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY LOW. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
HAVE LOWERED BELOW 10%, LOWERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HELPFUL
RAIN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING HAS
ALSO LOWERED.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS FORECAST TO BE COOLER FOR NOW, WITH LESS THAN
A 20% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD GET WARM ENOUGH FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW TEENS. STILL
WINDS, WILL LIKELY GUST 25-45 MPH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY.
WITH VERY DRY 10 HOUR FUELS AROUND 10-12% ACCORDING TO THE
KANSAS MESONET THE CONCERN REMAINS FOR FIRE STARTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FIRES TO GET OUT OF CONTROL REMAINS HIGH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...KAK
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