226
FXUS63 KGLD 120844
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST OF HWY 83 AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE WARM
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD
TO RAPID WILDFIRE GROWTH.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. RECENT GUIDANCE/TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY MAY BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY (I.E. A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ASHORE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (TODAY-TONIGHT) AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
(MON-MON NIGHT). MEANWHILE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY ~300 MILES
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 08Z THIS
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST (ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW) TODAY-
TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS ESE ASHORE SOUTHERN CA (MON) AND E
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (MON NIGHT), AMPLIFYING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TODAY-TONIGHT: WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA TODAY.. BETWEEN A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.. ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS.
A PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS ~12C)
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE TX GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN-
CENTRAL PLAINS HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
(INTO CENTRAL-EASTERN KS) THIS MORNING. EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS WEST OF HWY 83 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE MINIMUM RH
READINGS WILL BOTTOM-OUT ~10-15% AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL FACILITATE RELATIVELY BREEZY
(~15-25 MPH G 35 MPH) SW WINDS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT (MON MORNING) LOWS IN THE MID 40'S TO LOWER
50'S, WARMEST EAST OF HWY 83.
MON-MON NIGHT: WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN, I.E. WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A PRONOUNCED RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A DEVELOPING (ALBEIT INCREASINGLY
PRONOUNCED) LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, EXPECT
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY.. WITH A SIMILAR
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES REMAINS IN PLACE, UNCHANGED. RECENT
GUIDANCE/TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WATCH
(ENCOMPASSING AN AREA SIMILAR TO TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING) MAY
BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 50-60 KT 500-MB JET
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A
SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN 850-MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND BACK INTO MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL AID
THIS SURFACE CYCLONE BY PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION TUESDAY. A MIX OF WET AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN, WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S COLD FRONT, AND POSSIBLY
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS
THE CWA ARE IN THE LOWER-70S TO LOWER-80S TUESDAY, WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES (RH) IN THE MID-TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
30-40% CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN COLORADO,
AND GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND A 75% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD ACROSS THIS ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN A RED
FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED RESTS AROUND 10% AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION, RAIN IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND
A 30-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THIS ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS CYCLONE IS FAVORED TO START CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BE ALLOWED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE 70S. HOWEVER, RH VALUES MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP
INTO THE MID-TEENS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO, FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS, WHICH COULD
IMPLICATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. LREF
GUIDANCE PROVIDES ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS THIS ZONE, WITH NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVER A 40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITERIA (HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AT AROUND 60-70%).
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY HINDER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THIS ZONE TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
NEEDED WEDNESDAY IS AROUND 5-10%.
THE 850-MB HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTH STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
THURSDAY, WITH 500-MB TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
REDEVELOPED. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE LEVEL FLOW WOULD ONCE AGAIN
BE FAVORED FROM THIS PATTERN, WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER SINGLE-DIGITS TO MID-
TEENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST- CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS, WHERE LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 90% PROBABILITY FOR
RH VALUES TO MEET CRITERIA, AND NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOUT A
TWO IN THREE CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITERIA. AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED THURSDAY IS ABOUT
20%.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE PRESENT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, WHICH
COULD ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COOLER CONDITIONS MAY LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER-60S TO
LOWER-70S FRIDAY, AND MID-50S TO LOWER-60S SATURDAY. RAIN MAY
ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING THE
NIGHT HOURS WHEN TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~20,000 FT AGL. A ~50 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (PER KGLD VELOCITY DATA) WILL
FOSTER LLWS LATE THIS EVENING AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LLWS WILL ABATE BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL KS. S TO SW SURFACE WINDS AT ~12-16 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SW OR WSW LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SW TO WSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND DECREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET, NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~20,000 FT AGL. A ~50 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (PER KGLD VELOCITY DATA) WILL
FOSTER LLWS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LLWS
WILL ABATE BY SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KS. S TO SW SURFACE WINDS AT ~10-15 KNOTS LATE THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WSW AND DECREASE TO ~5 KNOTS BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO ~25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
/10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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