605
FXUS63 KGLD 251804
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1204 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
ARE POSSIBLE.
- TUESDAY'S FORECAST HAS GUSTS WINDS AROUND 25-40 MPH FOR
EASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
TODAY, A 500MB LOW PUSHES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, ALLOWING A
LOW DISTURBANCE TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN 850MB COLORADO LOW TO FORM, PROMOTING A ROUND OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF KS 27,
FOCUSING ON EASTERN COLORADO. STORMS LOOK TO START FORMING AROUND 20-
22Z TOMORROW, LASTING UNTIL AROUND 5-7Z. THERE IS AROUND A THOUSAND
JOULES OF CAPE BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR WITH THESE STORMS, SUGGESTING
THE MAIN THREAT IS OF A MICROBURST. WITH THAT, WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
WOULD BE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN CAUSE LOCALIZED BLOWING
DUST.
TONIGHT, AS THE LOWS FROM THE WEST GET CLOSER, SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS
TO STRENGTHEN, KICKING UP THE 850 MB LLJ. A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
LOOKS TO KEEP MOST OF THESE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE, BUT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
TOMORROW, A 500 MB LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL HAVE
ABSORBED THE AFOREMENTIONED FOUR CORNERS LOW AS A TROUGH AXIS. AS
THIS AXIS PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE.
SIMILAR FEATURES CAN BE FOUND IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN, BUT
NONE OF THEM ARE OVERLY STRONG. FLOW UP TO AROUND 500 MB LOOKS TO
CAP OUT AROUND 30-35 KTS, MEANING VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE UNLIKELY.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE, PRESSURE RISES LOOK TO BE ABOUT 1 MB AN
HOUR. THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25
KTS, BUT THE THREAT FOR 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IS MUCH LOWER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. IT IS WORTH NOTING, ANY GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR CAUSING BLOWING DUST. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
UNLIKELY.
TOMORROW NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 50S
AGAIN, KEPT STABLE BY CLOUD COVER. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE.
CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE ON HOW A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NM/TX
BORDER, SOME SUGGEST THAT WILL THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKER,
AND OTHERS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL STALL OUT AND CUT-OFF.
THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE THREE DAY STRETCH ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, AND A BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY WITH
THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS STAY IN THE 50S. THE WINDS REMAIN TO BE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND RELATIVE CALM IN THE 5-20 MPH RANGE.
THE CAPE VALUES STILL ARE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE FOR ANY STORM
POTENTIAL.
FOR THIS PERIOD, THERE IS ABOUT A 40-65% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.01"
FOR EACH DAY. IF THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS POSITION THEN THE REGION
COULD SEE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STAYS
INTACT. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING THE PWATS IN THE 0.9 TO 1.2" RANGE.
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW WHICH MAY PRODUCE SLOW STORMS. THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IF WE SEE PRECIPATION OVER THE
THREE DAYS.
ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL AFFECT THE STORMS/SHOWERS
POTENTIAL. AS WE CONTINUE TO MOVE FORWARD, CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGHER
ON THE LIKELY SCENARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE IS A SIGNAL OF A NEW SYSTEM THAT MAY
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BREEZY. ONE REMINDER, THIS IS
ABOUT A WEEK OUT AND THIS DOES DEPEND ON THE HOW THE EARLY SYSTEM
PANS OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE VARYING
BETWEEN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, SOMETIMES
RAPIDLY JUMPING BETWEEN THE TWO. THERE IS A CHANCE STORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH MAY
IMPACT KGLD AND KMCK. KMCK IS EXPECTED TO SEE LLWS OVERNIGHT
AROUND 200-400 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 40 KTS,
ENDING A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
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