633
FXUS63 KGLD 030609
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE HOT DAY ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 100S, THEN TEMPERATURES
COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE 80S.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THAT PRODUCES STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE AREA UNDER A TILTED UPPER RIDGE WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVELS BEING MIXED, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S/70S. IF
THE WINDS CAN LIGHTEN FOR A FEW HOURS, TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY DROP
INTO THE 50S.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO
THE PLAINS AND HELP PUSH THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE BEFORE THAT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOW 100S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE STILL REMAIN FORECAST
TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S BY THE NOON HOUR, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE AREA FROM SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S.
A FEW HOURS IS POSSIBLE FOR THOSE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
CONCERN WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS IS THAT THEY WILL ALLOW FOR BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
AROUND EASTERN COLORADO. UNLESS THE LOW/FRONT MOVE IN QUICKLY AND
KILL OFF THE WINDS, IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A FEW AREAS TO
SEE 1-4 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WITH
COVERAGE LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE ONLY AROUND 50%, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. JUST BE CAREFUL WITH THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE FRONT MAY SPARK SOME
EARLY IN THE DAY SHOWERS WHICH WOULD CAP TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY A BIT HIGHER.
AS THE FRONT AND LOW PUSH IN LATER TODAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL EDGE. THIS LOOKS TO MOSTLY
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, AND THEN PUSH EAST INTO THE
AREA. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE THAT THEN PUSHES EAST TO JOIN THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
FRONT. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE
ONCE THEY FORM, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS DOES LEAD TO A FEW CONCERNS, MAINLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DRY LIGHTNING. IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A
STRONG ENOUGH SHOWER/STORM TO LOAD ENOUGH PRECIPITATION AND PRODUCE
A DOWNBURST WITH WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. IF THIS OCCURS, BLOWING DUST
WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN HOW HOT AND DRY IT HAS BEEN THE LAST
FEW DAYS. BASED ON GUIDANCE, IT SEEMS LIKE THE AREA MAY ONLY SEE ONE
TO TWO OF THESE SEVERE GUSTS, IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. IN REGARD TO THE
DRY LIGHTNING, WITH STORMS INITIALLY STARTING OFF WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION DUE TO EVAPORATION, A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY START FIRES. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY AS
STORMS FIRST FORM, AS THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THE
ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
OVERNIGHT, THE STORMS FROM THE FRONT AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO
WILL LIKELY DIE OUT AS THE AIR STABILIZES. THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE'LL
BE PRECIPITATION FREE THOUGH AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
MOISTEN UP A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT. COMBINING THIS WITH POTENTIAL
OUTFLOWS AND MAYBE A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FIRE UP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR TO
THE EARLY STORMS, THESE WOULD LIKELY BE SUB-SEVERE AND SOMEWHAT
SHORT LIVED. STILL, WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A ROGUE SEVERE
WIND GUST WITH ANY OF THESE ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED ARE FORECAST TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER, MORE IN THE 60S AND 70S. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, IT MAY ACTUALLY BECOME FAIRLY WINDY AS LONG AS THE
FRONT DOESN'T STALL. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS BEFORE OR
AROUND SUNRISE WHERE WIND SPEED COULD NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH.
TUESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER UPPER TROUGHING WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AROUND SW KANSAS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO START STRONG, BUT WEAKEN MORE TO 10 TO 20 MPH FROM THE
NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO EASTERN KANSAS, AND ADVANCING TROUGH
AXIS IN THE BIGGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW, AND MORE MOIST MID-LEVELS,
THERE IS ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO FORM. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
MIXED ON WHERE AND IF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER TO SPARK
STORMS OR NOT. IF STORMS DO FORM, THEY WOULD BE MORE APT TO PRODUCE
RAIN WITH LESS DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE CHANCES FOR DRY LIGHTNING
WOULD ALSO BE MUCH LOWER. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD STILL BE FOR A WIND
GUST AROUND 60-65 MPH.
STORMS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTION WOULD OFFSET SOME OF THE INSULATING EFFECT FROM THE CLOUD
COVER. AS SUCH, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S FOR THOSE WHO
STAY CLEAR FROM STORMS, AND MORE IN THE 60S FOR THOSE WHO SEE
PRECIPITATION AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS ONGOING IN THE EARLY MORNING
MAY PERSIST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH AND THE
LINGERING SURFACE LOW. DEPENDING ON HOW PERSISTENT THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER IS, SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE
THE 70S. FOG WOULD ALSO THEN BE A CONCERN IN THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THOSE WHO CLEAR SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW
80S. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LIGHTEN A BIT COMPARED TO THE PRIOR DAYS
AS THE LOW BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND MORE BROAD. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 5-15 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH OF THE AREA CLEARS DURING THE DAYTIME. THOSE WHO STAY CLOUD
COVERED WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH IN THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR NOW, SUB-SEVERE STORMS ARE
FAVORED WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-60 MPH IF STORMS DO
FORM OR MOVE INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, FOR THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. THE RIDGE OFF
THE WEST COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STALL
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN US FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. DURING THIS PERIOD, OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL START OFF AS
ZONAL AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO COME FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE MOVES.
OVERALL, IT LOOKS TO BE HOT AND DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP TO THE HIGH 80S TO
LOW 90S. THURSDAY HAS THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AROUND
10-20%, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FRIDAY THOUGH
SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN HIGH 90S TO LOW
100S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN MID-TEENS FOR AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27. WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR LESS THAN 25 MPH. GFDI VALUES ARE IN
THE RANGE OF 20-40 WHICH WOULD PROMOTE HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
GROWTH. WHILE THE WINDS DO NOT MET FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA, AND
THIS IS AROUND A WEEK OUT, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE ON
GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND THE DRIER FUELS IN THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KTS, HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS, AS CLEAR AIR TONIGHT PRESENTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
ASSESSMENT, IN ADDITION TO MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH BETWEEN 02
AND 03Z AT BOTH TERMINALS, WHICH WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT
PARTICULARLY AT KMCK WHERE WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTHERLY TO EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT, THOUGH A PROB30 IS IN PLACE FROM 03-06Z FOR BOTH TERMINALS
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE, AND COVERAGE OF
THE STORMS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...DAVIS
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