172
FXUS63 KGLD 040209
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
809 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S
ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. IF A STORM CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THEN VERY LARGE HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA RECEIVED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN LAST
NIGHT AND SOILS ARE SATURATED. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ARE MOVING EASTWARD. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BECOME ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
NIGHTS AND MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME SOUTHERLY MOTION MAY DEVELOP WITH TIME, BUT THAT IS
UNCERTAIN. 21Z RFS SHOWS 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NEBRASKA, WHILE
THE 00Z HRRR HAS THE HEAVY RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THINK THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS
ENHANCED FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD STORMS MOVE OVER THAT
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS LOW IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WAS BEING SEEN
EARLIER WHICH HAS KEPT WINDS A BIT BREEZIER THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT.
DUE TO THE FURTHER SOUTH POSITIONING OF THE LOW MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS BEING SEEN AS WELL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW
90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE AREA, DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS SOME SPOTTY HEAT INDICES IN THE 101-105 DEGREE RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AGAIN ON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. INITIAL FOCUS IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE 500 AND 250MB JET STREAKS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
RESULTING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THESE JETS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO SW NEBRASKA AND APPEARS TO BE
COLLOCATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AS CUMULUS IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO. USING NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AS IT IS HANDLING THE MOISTURE THE BEST AS OF 18Z, SHOULD A
STORM BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH THEN HAIL UP TO
BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE. A
SECOND AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DUE TO FORCING FROM
THE LOW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WOULD BE PULSE
STORMS, SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HAIL UP TO PING PONG
BALL AND SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS, BEFORE POTENTIALLY CLUSTERING
WITH SOME COLD POOL WIND POTENTIAL.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITH BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING POTENTIAL ON THE NOSE OF A
700MB JET AND THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JETS MENTIONED EARLIER. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
FAVORING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40. HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. DO HAVE FLOODING
CONCERNS AS WELL WITH THIS SETUP AS AN STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO IN PLACE ACROSS DECATUR, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM AND GOVE AND
BACK AS FAR WEST AS RAWLINS, SOUTHERN HITCHCOCK, THOMAS AND EASTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES ALONG WITH FGEN IN PLACE. MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND FURTHER INCREASE LIFT. WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE MEAN WIND BECOMES
PARALLEL WITH THE 700MB FGEN. I DID CONTEMPLATE A FLOOD WATCH
BUT WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
POTENTIALLY DISRUPTING THE ENVIRONMENT OPTED TO HOLD OFF. THE
PEAK SEVERE THREAT WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS FORECAST START
AROUND 05Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 10Z BEFORE TURNING INTO
A POTENTIAL HYDROLOGY POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY, RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY POTENTIALLY KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A FEW DEGREES LOWER INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. THE LATE MORNING AND
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS GOVE, GRAHAM AND WICHITA
COUNTIES AS UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 250MB JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY
DOES NOT FORM AS WELL DUE TO LINGER CAPPING ISSUES FROM THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THEN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. HAIL IS FORECAST TO
INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THREAT BEFORE MERGING TOGETHER INTO A
CLUSTER AS IT PUSHES INTO NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THERE IS QUESTIONS HOWEVER
HOW INTENSE AND HOW LONG LIVED THIS CLUSTER WILL BE HOWEVER AS
IT IT FULLY DEPENDENT ON IF THE SATURDAY MORNING STORMS
STABILIZES THE ENVIRONMENT TOO MUCH. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE
TO RECOVER THEN WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. IF THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WORKED OVER THEN WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-65
MPH RANGE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AND A LOT LESS IMPACTFUL. IF THE
UPPER END WINDS DO OCCUR THEN SOME PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST COULD OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY 25% AT THIS TIME IN THAT OCCURRING. STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z OR EVEN SOONER IF THEY
DISSIPATE DUE TO THE MORNING STORMS KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT TOO
STABLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
STARTING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN, THERE IS A RIDGE THAT BEGINS TO
MOVE IN OVER THE DAKOTAS AND CANADA. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STALL
OUT AND REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ALONG WITH
THE RIDGE, THERE ARE TWO LOWS BOTH SITTING OFF OF THE NORTHERN WEST
AND NORTHERN EAST COAST. WITH THIS PATTERN OUR FLOW FOR THE CWA WILL
MAINLY BE WEAK ZONAL AND WILL SEE SOME SMALL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALL LOOK VERY SIMILAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 80S TO UPPER 90S. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THERE IS SLIGHT
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IS 5-10% FOR MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY, AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27 ALONG WITH SOUTH OF I-70 WILL
SEE 5-15% OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. MOVING TO THE WINDS THEY
MAINLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN
AROUND 25-35 MPH. RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20% FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION/STORM CHANCES, POPS ARE SHOWING THERE BEING 15-
30% CHANCE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS PERIOD. MOVING TO
STORM POTENTIAL, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THERE BEING AROUND 1000-2000
J/KG OF SFC-CAPE. LOOKING AT BULK SHEAR THERE IS 25-40 KTS.
NCAR AI CONVECTIVE HAZARD FORECAST PRODUCTS IS SHOWING THERE
BEING AROUND A 5-15% OF SEVERE HAZARDS FOR AT LEAST ONE COUNTY
IN THE CWA. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE STORM INGREDIENTS THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS FOR THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THE PERIOD BUT MAY DECLINE
TO IFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES
FALLING IN HEAVY RAIN. STILL WATCHING FOR A SLIM CHANCE IN
IMPACTS IN STORMS FOR EACH TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF. LLWS IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR AT GLD THIS EVENING AS WELL. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BEING OUT OF
THE AREA AROUND 14Z. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS TONIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page