394
FXUS63 KGLD 050528
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DURATION OF OVERLAPPING CONDITIONS
OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- ROLLER COASTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (MUCH WARMER),
THURSDAY (COLDER) BEFORE STABILIZING A BIT (NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL) FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2025
VERY SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WHICH
IS LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
SNOWFLAKES HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY FAIRLY LARGE AS WELL WHICH IS A
BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COLD CONDITIONS AND LIGHT LIFT BUT THERE
DOES LOOK TO BE A COUPLE JOULES OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WHICH APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH FOR THE LARGE FLAKES. BASED OFF OF THE RAP AND NAM 275K
AND 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT AM THINKING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES WILL END WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WITH SOME LESS THICK
CIRRUS COMING OFF OF THE ROCKIES WHICH MAY HELP THE COLORADO
COUNTIES AND POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR WARM INTO
THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. FURTHER EAST IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE TEENS.
TONIGHT, ESE UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WHICH WILL AGAIN
BRING THE RISK OF FREEZING FOG TO THE AREA. CROSS SECTION OMEGA AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AGAIN SHOW SIMILAR LIFT TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN
SO FAR THIS MORNING WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT THE THREAT FOR
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE STARTING AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AGAIN OR SO. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHOWS TO SOME
STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE WHICH
MAKES ME WONDER IF FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE SINCE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY ARE NOW AS DEW
POINTS RISE SLOWLY. THE ONLY THING THAT IS POINTING AGAINST
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THAT THE LOWEST 1KM OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE IS NOT COMPLETELY SATURATED. THIS IS ALSO THE REASONING
OF WHY NOT BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WORDING OF THE FOG. I
AM INCLUDED SOME AREAS OF FOG WORDING ACROSS THOMAS, LOGAN,
GOVE AND WICHITA COUNTIES WHICH LOOK TO HAVE RELATIVELY BETTER
UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED AT KGLD THIS AM.
I HAVE ALSO TAKEN OUT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION FOR THE
NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND CONVERTED THEM TO FLURRIES DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO OCCUR.
WEDNESDAY, FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS PREVAIL USHERING IN
DRIER AIR IN THE PROFILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
QUICKLY AS THIS OCCURS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THERE ARE SOME OUTLIER GUIDANCE
THAT HAS THE CLOUD COVER LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER MAINLY FOR
EAST OF THE STATE LINE WHICH IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WOULD BE COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST SO HAVE NUDGED THOSE DOWN A LITTLE BIT. HIGHS
CURRENTLY IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT GOODLAND TO
THE MID 40S TOWARDS MCCOOK AND HILL CITY.
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR
CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. AN 850MB JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WITH THE WESTERLY
DOWN SLOPING WINDS AND DRIER AIR DO THINK MIXING WILL OCCUR.
THE QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS BE? NAM AND ECMWF ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER ON THE WINDS WITH THE JET BUT THE HRRR AND THE
GFS BOTH SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS KIT CARSON AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED FROM THE 12 HREF MEAN
WINDS AS WELL, SINCE THE GFS IN PARTICULAR DOES A BETTER JOB
WITH MIXING HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THAT. WITH THE
WESTERLY WIND ALSO HAVE CONCERN THAT THIS WILL DRY OUT THE AREA
FURTHER THAN WHAT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SO TAILORED THE DEW
POINTS IN THAT AREA DOWN TOWARDS THE 5TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER AM
OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FIRE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME AS
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THESE STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT SET UP
DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE AS THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE
CURRENTLY HANDLING THE POSITION OF THIS THE BEST AS OF RIGHT NOW
SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THIS IS JUST
ENOUGH TO LOWER MY CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
OCCURRING FOR 3+ HOURS TO AROUND 30 TO 40%.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND A SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO THE AREA, DUE
TO THE HIGH AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG OR
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON STRATUS POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY HAVE
ALSO BEEN BROUGHT DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AROUND -1 TO 1C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE CONTINUED
EASTERLY WIND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
FRIDAY, QUITE A RANGE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES IS SEEN IN GUIDANCE
RANGING FROM -2 TO 6C. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE ALSO TRENDED
COOLER SO AS A RESULT HAVE BROUGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AS WELL WHICH MAY SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON
WHERE IT TRACKS WITH A FURTHER NORTH TRACK SIMILAR TO WHAT THE
ECMWF SHOWS.
SATURDAY, WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MORE RECENT
FRONTS WE'VE DUE TO A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW AS WINDS GUST AROUND 30-45
MPH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT MAY END UP BEING COOLER AS CLOUD
COVER DOES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE
TROUGHING WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND SOME ESE MOISTURE ADVECTION WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE
INHERITED 30% CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2025
FOR KGLD... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 6 TO
12 HOURS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 200-500FT AND THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING FOG. 05Z OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW
CEILINGS AROUND A FEW HUNDRED FEET WITH LOCATIONS WHO HAVE HAD
THE LOW CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOG. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AT KGLD WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE FOG DEVELOPS, IT SHOULD LINGER UNTIL WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THROUGH A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND DRAG IN DRIER AIR. CURRENT FORECAST
IS AROUND 13Z, BUT THIS COULD HAPPEN AS EARLY AS 09Z. LOW
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FOG
CLEARS, BUT THEN TRANSITION TO CLEAR SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KMCK... MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2500FT ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR FOG. BE READY FOR CONDITIONS
TO CHANGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ARE FAVORABLE
AND TRYING TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD
CEILING IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AND KEEPING THE AIR
RELATIVELY DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. BY ABOUT 18-20Z, THE DRIER AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE SHOULD LIFT
ANY CLOUD LAYER AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KAK
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