043
FXUS63 KGLD 161857
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1257 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY. FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND VERY PATCHY BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
- VERY WARM TO EVEN HOT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND EVEN MONTHLY RECORD
HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
16Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST, WITH CWA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT THAT
BROUGHT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF AREA, LOCATED OVER GULF OF AMERICA EXTENDING BACK INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. CLOSER TO HOME, SFC RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD
ON THE PLAINS AS SFC LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER ROCKIES
FOR TONIGHT, OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER ANTICIPATED ACROSS REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY IS REPLACED BY DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT AS ANY
LOCATION STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO INCREASE, DO NOT SEE THINGS GETTING AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT,
BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE TEENS IN
EASTERN ZONES LIKE RED WILLOW, NORTON OR GRAHAM COUNTIES.
FOR TUESDAY, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS DEEP (> 2KM) MIXED LAYER DEVELOPS
AND TAPS INTO THE 35KT FLOW ALOFT, SO HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE (80%) THAT WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENTLY GUSTING TO 30
MPH TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH LOWER HOWEVER, AS THIS WILL BE A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL
SCENARIO WHERE THERE WILL BE INCREASING DEWPOINTS COMING IN FROM
THE WEST AS VERY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IS DISPLACED TO THE
EAST. CURRENT FORECAST LEANING TOWARDS DRY SOLUTIONS AND WITH
DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS TEND TO THINK SURFACE HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY CRASH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ONGOING DROUGHT, POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING DUST ALWAYS A CONCERN. OVERALL, GIVEN MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE
EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER MAXING OUT IN THE 35-40KT RANGE AND OVERALL
DEPTH FOR DUST TO BE DISTRIBUTED THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD EXPECT
ONLY MINOR ISSUES WITH PLUMES IMMEDIATELY NEXT TO SOURCE
REGIONS WITH LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT. WITH COLD FRONT SHIFTING
WINDS MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, UNDERSTAND CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED DUST AS IT PASSES. HOWEVER,
MIXED LAYER DEPTH IS VERY HIGH ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT
WITHOUT THE PRONOUNCED SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER THAT OFTEN OCCURS
WITH HABOOB LIKE EVENTS. ADDITIONALLY WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH STRONGER BEHIND FRONT THAN AHEAD OF IT, SO CONCUR WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT THREAT FOR THIS IS VERY LOW (< 2%)
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, DROUGHT EXPECTED TO WORSEN AND SOIL
WILL CONTINUE TO BAKE AND BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING LOFTED IN
INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE RELATED TO FIRE DANGER.
WITH MOST AFTERNOONS SEEING RH FALL TO 10-15% ANY PERIOD OF
STRONGER WIND WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. WHILE ORGANIZED AREA OF WIND NOT ANTICIPATED, 25 MPH
GUSTS ARE GENERALLY NOT HARD TO BE REALIZED IN DEEPLY MIXED
AIRMASS THAT IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO.
STRONG COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
KNOCKING HIGHS "DOWN" TO JUST 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES AND OTHER
IMPACTS ON SUNDAY. WHILE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL OBVIOUSLY
HAVE A BIG IMPACTS ON WEEKEND TEMPERATURES, AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT POTENTIAL DUST STORM COULD OCCUR IF TIMING IS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY (OR EVEN LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY). SOILS
WILL BE PRIMED DUE TO HOT, SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP
TO THE FRONT, AND IF SIGNIFICANT WINDS CAN ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE A HABOOB TYPE SCENARIO COULD DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME (10%) AS IT WOULD REQUIRE THE
TIMING TO LINE UP PERFECTLY, BUT DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING AS
THE WARM AND RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO THE
WEEKEND MAY TAKE FOCUS OF WEATHER CONCERNS LATER IN WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DEVELOPING
MID CLOUD DECK (AT OR ABOVE 10000FT) GRADUALLY DEVELOPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY BELOW 10 KTS BY SUNSET.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
UPDATED WITH LATEST FORECAST VALUES 1251 PM MON MAR 16...
A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES IS PRESENT
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SOME DAILY
RECORD HIGHS AND EVEN MONTHLY MARCH RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY OF
FALLING DURING THIS PERIOD.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MARCH 20TH
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 90 IN 1907.... CURRENT FORECAST 86.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 85 IN 1916 AND 1997.... CURRENT FORECAST 87.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 88 IN 1916... CURRENT FORECAST 88.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 87 IN 1907.... CURRENT FORECAST 86.
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RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY SATURDAY MARCH 21ST
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 84 IN 1907 AND 2011.... CURRENT FORECAST
88.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 89 IN 1910.... CURRENT FORECAST 88.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 93 IN 1907... CURRENT FORECAST 89.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 84 IN 2011.... CURRENT FORECAST 87.
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MONTHLY (MARCH) RECORD HIGHS:
GOODLAND: 90 DEGREES MARCH 20TH, 1907
MCCOOK: 93 DEGREES MARCH 16TH, 2015
BURLINGTON: 93 DEGREES MARCH 19TH, 1921
HILL CITY: 94 DEGREES MARCH 16TH, 2015
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ001.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-013>016.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ252.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ253.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ079.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ080-081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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