940
FXUS63 KGLD 170518
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1018 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SATURDAY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS.
- WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL IF SNOW DOES
OCCUR, WITH A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE STILL FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY STILL REMAINS IN
PLACE CURRENTLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
LARGE SCALE AMPLIFIED FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE
HIGH PLAINS/TRI-STATE REGION UNDER SHARP NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN US.
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (50-60KT) IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IS STILL
IN PLACE AND WITH DEEP MIXING (UP TO THE 700 MB LAYER) TAPPING INTO
THE HIGHER WINDS AND AVE RESULTED IN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AROUND OR
HIGHER THAN 70 MPH EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST IMPACTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KS, THOUGH SOME OF THE LARGER PLUMES
HAVE TRENDED TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH DEEPER MIXING (LESS
SURFACE BASED IMPACTS). VERY DRY AIR COMBINED WITH THE WINDS HAVE
ALSO LED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY DESPITE COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S (SEE FIRE
SECTION FOR DETAILS). A BLOWING DUST WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR COUNTIES IMPACTED BY BLOWING DUST AND VARIABLE TRAVEL
IMPACTS. THE STRONGEST 700MB FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DECREASING, AND MIXING HEIGHTS DECREASE THROUGH 5PM, SO THERE
SHOULD BE A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN MAXIMUM WIND AND
WARNING IMPACTS THROUGH SUNSET ENDING AS LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO
DECOUPLE.
SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY TO WATCH FOR WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER AGAIN.
WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST IN THE 40-45KT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH A 50KT 850-700MB WIND MAX POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER
EASTERN ND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT SHOWN TO
BE AS DEEP AS TODAY, BUT AS THE SUN RISES THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
BETWEEN 9AM-NOON IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF CO, AND NBM PROBS ARE 30%
FOR MARGINAL WARNING IMPACTS (A FEW GUSTS TO 60 MPH). THE MORE
COMMON IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH WEST COAST RIDGING AND EASTERN
US TROUGHING/UPPER LOW PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THAT FLOW
GENERALLY BRINGING PERIODS OF LEE TROUGHING OR FRONTAL
PASSAGES. THIS RESULTS IN DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES,
PERIODS OF WINDS, AND DOWNSLOPING GENERALLY ADVECTING DRIER AIR
INTO OUR REGION LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF INTEREST WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHEN ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A STRONGER NEGATIVELY TITLED
SHORTWAVE ROTATING CLOSER TO OUR REGION INTERACTING WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION QPF SHOULD BE LIMITED. AT THE SAME
TIME, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR INCREASING 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT COULD SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (DUSTING TO 1").
CURRENTLY THE PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 0.1" OF SNOW HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 50% RANGE), HOWEVER THE PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+
ARE LOWER (10%). LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF ECMWF/GEFS
THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS TRYING TO RESOLVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
2-3" TOTALS, BUT CONSIDERING THE DIRECTION THIS SHORTWAVE IS
COMING FROM AND DRIER AIR AHEAD OF IT THESE ARE GOING TO BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON MORE ORGANIZED BANDING AND SLOWER WAVE
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CEILINGS
AROUND 2500FT AND A FEW FLURRIES BETWEEN ABOUT 12-17Z. THE
OVERALL CHANCE IS LESS THAN 20%, SO HAVEN'T INCLUDED IT AT THIS
TIME. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 13-14Z AS WINDS AROUND 200-500FT ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 40-45KTS AGAIN. OTHERWISE, WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN FORM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 KTS AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO LIGHTEN A BIT GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE
DECREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS FROM WEST AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
RED FLAG WARNING AND RELATED CONDITIONS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH VERY HIGH GFDI VALUES ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS (90-105) AND
VALUES GREATER THAN 60 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER WHICH HAS KEPT RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER IN SOME AREAS, BUT TDS WELL BELOW ZERO HAVE ALSO RESULTED
IN RH VALUES NEAR 10% WHERE HIGH WIND CONDITIONS (GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH) HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. TRENDS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND COOLING LOW LEVELS AT SUNSET LINING UP
WITH THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT WARNING EXPIRATION.
ON SUNDAY: VERY LOW TDS ARE FORECAST (NEGATIVE TEENS) AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, RH VALUES NEAR OR LOWER THAN 15% ARE
LIKELY AT LEAST FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY MORE MARGINAL. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME AS TODAY, BUT FREQUENT GUSTS 40-55 MPH
ARE LIKELY (HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WEST). PARTS OF THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR UPGRADE/REEVALUATED AS THE
CURRENT EVENT ENDS THIS EVENING, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN WARNING
CONDITIONS IN SOME PARTS OF THE WATCH.
ON TUESDAY: WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (POTENTIAL FOR LOW
60S) AND DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN ARRIVING IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN MAY
ALLOW FOR DECREASING RH VALUES TO AROUND 15% ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, GRADIENT LOCALLY IN THE TRI-STATE REGION IS MUCH LOWER
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK MIXING AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT AS HIGH
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
IS STILL A PERIOD TO WATCH AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOES ARRIVE
DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MAY OR NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING
INCREASING WINDS (MORE LIKELY AFTER RH HAS RECOVERED).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 8 AM MST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-080.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...DR
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