451
FXUS63 KGLD 200522
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1122 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 30-40 MPH MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO THE MIDDLE 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. TUESDAY, DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DEEP
MIXING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH, STRONGEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2500 METERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO NEGATE ANY BLOWING
DUST CONCERNS, THOUGH MAY SEE SOME HAZY AFTERNOON SKIES AND
LOCAL REDUCTIONS NEAR AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS LATE WITH A WEAK
WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
TODAY: A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
(SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING) WILL PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. BREEZY NNW-NW WINDS AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA TODAY.. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE
40'S AND INTO THE 30'S THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, UNIMPEDED INSOLATION AND MODERATELY STEEP (7.5 C/KM)
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER MARGINAL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION (~500 J/KG MLCAPE) OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY (ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION) WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON..
MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN ~21-01Z. MODEST (~25-30 KT)
EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FOSTER OCCASIONAL AND/OR
TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION (ESP. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
UPPER FORCING).. AS ONE MIGHT INFER FROM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR. WITH THIS IN
MIND, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZED HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.. MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
BETWEEN ~21-01Z.
TUESDAY: SPEEDY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THIS PERIOD.. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS NNE-N TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. A
TIGHT 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW WILL FOSTER 35-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KANSAS, WHERE UNIMPEDED INSOLATION AND
MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE ROBUST VERTICAL
MIXING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND,
BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-40 MPH. IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 55 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND, WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL FOSTER A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
A DRY WNW TO NW FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN COMPLEXITY NOTICEABLY INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.. WHEN GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW (WITH EMBEDDED COMPACT LOWS) OVER NEW ENGLAND MAY
RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.. AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST (FRI) MAY BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS (SAT-SUN).
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE PRESENTLY SUGGESTS AN ABOVE AVERAGE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH.. GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN..
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THEN MIXING TO THE SURFACE BY MORNING
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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