262
FXUS63 KGLD 032017
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. PEAK TIME IS FORECAST TO BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IF STORMS FORM.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AROUND MONTANA ANS
SOUTHERN CANADA SLOWLY PUSHING EAST WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE BROAD LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WITH A SHORTWAVE/SMALL CUT-OFF LOW TRYING TO FORM
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THIS SETUP IS STREAMING
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY CLOUD TO CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE 80S, THOUGH SOME MAY
STAY IN THE 70S. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM ROUGHLY THE SOUTH WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN TIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO BE
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40. THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, WE'VE HAD A FEW SHOWERS LINGER WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND INCREASED MOISTURE. SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BUT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST, THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER, AND
HEATING/INSTABILITY INCREASES, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF TEMPERATURES FAVOR THE
MID 70S, MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE MORE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WEAK PULSE STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE VERY LOW AT THAT POINT. THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE CAPE CLOSER TO 3000 J/KG WOULD
STILL FAVOR PULSE STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 15-30 KTS IS FORECAST TO BE
TOO LOW FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. WITH THIS, ANY STORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD PULSE OR CLUSTER, LIKELY LEADING TO HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL. HOWEVER, ANY STORM THAT CAN BE DISCREET OR TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF BETTER SHEAR FROM STORMS MODIFYING THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO AROUND 2", MAYBE EVEN UP TO 2.75".
REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS, THE TORNADO AND WIND
THREAT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. FOR WINDS, THE FLOW AND DOWNSHEAR
VECTORS ARE BOTH AROUND 35 KTS, FAVORING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
THE MAX IS STILL AROUND 60-70 MPH IF A DOWNBURST CAN OCCUR. FOR
TORNADOES, LOW LCLS ARE SUPPORTIVE. THE INHIBITOR IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY ARE BOTH FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW
SIDE. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF SPINUP, BUT THAT SEEMS TO BE THE
EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT.
AS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT, THERE ARE TWO ZONES OF INTEREST. THE
FIRST IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ZONE MAY MORPH OR MOVE A BIT DUE TO THE
OUTFLOWS FROM THE EARLY SHOWERS, BUT SHOULD FIRE UP STORMS BETWEEN 2-
5PM MT/ 3-6PM CT IF THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T TOO STABLE. THE SECOND
WOULD BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WEST OF THE AREA. THIS
LINE SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE EAST, WITH BOTH SETS OF STORMS
GENERALLY PROGRESSING EAST/NORTHEAST. THE COLORADO STORMS WILL
LIKELY HAVE LESSER INSTABILITY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY, LEADING TO A LOWER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
ROUND OF STORMS. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AS A WHOLE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT IF THE
INSTABILITY FAVORS THE LOWER END GUIDANCE FOR NO SEVERE WEATHER TO
OCCUR.
TONIGHT, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD END BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS
INSTABILITY LOWERS AND THE UPPER WAVES MOVE EAST. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA ALONG
WITH ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN
THE 60S FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH 50S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST IF THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND CLEARER
SKIES.
THURSDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO GO INTO A PSUEDO-ZONAL FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DRAG A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW, THE
FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER A BIT WEST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO STAY BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR IS ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH IN WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING EAST AND THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW, ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THOSE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 MAY STAY IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. IF THEY DO,
HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S INSTEAD OF THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA.
IN REGARDS TO STORMS CHANCES, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BE LOCATED. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY BE TOO DRY, ALONG WITH THE MAIN FORCING WEST OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE. WHILE STORMS SHOULD FIRE UP OVER THERE
DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW AND A
SHORTWAVE AROUND WYOMING, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE STORMS
FALLING APART OR SHIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. IF A STORMS MAKES
IT, THERE MAYBE IS CHANCE FOR A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, BUT
THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE BELOW 2%. THE SHOWERS IN THE EAST SHOULD
PULL EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CALMER NIGHT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, LOWS AGAIN ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS MIXED.
FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING, BUT ALMOST MORE
OF A SPILT FLOW WITH WEAKER FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE AREA IS FORECAST
TO BE A BIT WARMER IN THE 90S WITH THE RIDGING AND SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-15 MPH
WITH THE WEAKER FLOW AND A BROADENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STORM
CHANCES ARE LOWER WITH LITTLE CLEAR FEATURES SHORT OF POSSIBILITY A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. BETWEEN THIS
AND MAYBE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY EAST OF THE AREA (IF
THEY FORM), THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A FEW QUICK STORMS
TO FIRE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH LESSER
INSTABILITY, THESE WOULD LIKELY BE PULSE STORMS WITH A CHANCE
FOR MARGINAL SEVERE THREATS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. DURING THE NIGHT, ANY STORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD CLEAR OR MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND DEWPOINT IN THE
50S AND 60S AGAIN UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
MEDIUM RANNGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH GENERAL RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN DILEMA FACING THE AREA WILL BE THE
EXACT POSITION OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES AS THE CWA WILL REALLY BE ON
THE EDGE OF THINGS, WITH STRONGER FLOW (AND RESULTING WIND SHEAR)
BEING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH SURFACE LOW BRINGING PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA, THINK WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO WHERE THE STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND WHILE ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA TENDS TO SUPPORT
THIS STAYING WEST OF THE AREA, SOME OF THE LATEST MACHINE LEARNING
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AT LEAST BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
OTHER CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE RELATED TO AMPLIFYING RIDGE
AND GENERAL WARMING TREND. FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE
AMPLIFIES, ALTHOUGH AREA WILL BE ON THE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES
WHICH DOES LOWER OVERALL CERTAINTY IN UPCOMING FORECAST. A PERIOD OF
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS LOW INTENSIFIES, BUT
THINK SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY HOLD DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
UP SOMEWHAT, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. THE STORMS
MAY START AS EARLY AS 20Z, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 23-04Z.
THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND
MAYBE SOME HAIL. SHOWERS COULD LINGER TO AROUND 09Z, BUT ARE
MORE LIKELY TO END BY 06Z. ONCE THE SHOWERS/STORMS END, LOW
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO TRY AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. KGLD IS
FORECAST TO SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO AROUND 1000FT, WITH CEILINGS
AS LOW AS 300FT POSSIBLE. FOG MAY ALSO TRY AND DEVELOP. KMCK
ALSO HAS A CHANCE, BUT IS MORE LIKELY TO HAVE CEILINGS AT OR
ABOVE 5000FT. THE LOW CEILINGS IF THEY DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT
AROUND 15-16Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...KAK
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