173  
FXUS63 KGLD 242315  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
515 PM MDT THU JUN 24 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 403 PM MDT THU JUN 24 2021  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARDS YUMA, KIT CARSON, AND  
CHEYENNE COUNTIES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL  
10 PM MT FOR ALL OF THE TRI-STATE AREA EXCEPT FOR RED WILLOW,  
NORTON, AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAZARDS INCLUDE UP TO 2" HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT THU JUN 24 2021  
 
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DESPITE BEING BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE, SHORTWAVES, A LEE TROUGH, AND A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL  
KANSAS WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING EVENING IN THE PLAINS. A  
MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE FOUR  
CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE PUSHING THE LEE TROUGH  
EAST AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE. AS OF 2 PM MT, STORMS ARE ALREADY  
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE ALONG A SOUTHEAST-  
ORIENTED AXIS IN THE TROUGH. INITIALLY THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE SCATTERED WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. OVER THE COURSE OF  
THE EVENING, THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS W KANSAS AND SW  
NEBRASKA EVOLVING INTO A MORE LINEAR (MCS) STORM MODE. THE HRRR  
AND RAP MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR  
STORMS WITH MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND  
INCREASING MORE TO THE EAST AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 40-50 KTS  
RANGE. WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THERE IS SOME WEAK CIN (< -200 J/KG) WHICH  
MAY HELP LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. THE RECENT RUNS OF  
THE HRRR AND RAP ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW  
TORNADOES THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONSIDERING  
THE TIME OF THE DAY, NOT AS FAVORABLE SRH VALUES, AND BACKING  
WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2"  
AND UP TO 80 MPH DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. IF/WHEN THESE STORMS  
EVOLVE INTO AN MCS, THE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WHILE  
THE WIND THREAT INCREASES. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MCS, MORE  
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITH A MUCH LOWER SEVERE THREAT. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND  
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW FROM 4 TO 11 PM  
MT. WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE  
TO RECOVER FROM TONIGHT'S EVENT, THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T APPEAR  
TO BE AS FAVORABLE. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG OR LESS WITH  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6-8 C/KM RANGE AND 25-40 KTS OF  
SHEAR. MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT THU JUN 24 2021  
 
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST.  
 
FOR THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL  
CONUS DUE TO NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST  
SERVING AS A BLOCK. THIS KEEPS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE  
REGION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH  
THE FLOW ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
THE WEEKEND PATTERN PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE  
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE  
COUNTRY AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST (PACIFIC NORTHWEST) AND EAST  
(EAST COAST). THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG GUIDANCE FOR WHAT  
WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE PATTERN. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE  
THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND PERHAPS CLOSING OFF TO A LOW  
WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT FIRMLY OVER THE PLAINS. EITHER WAY, CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL WORK TO REFINE DETAILS LATER IN  
THE PERIOD.  
 
A WARMING TREND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER  
TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO NUDGE INTO THE  
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S  
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A GRADUAL RISE FOLLOWS, FROM THE MID 70S  
THROUGH MID 80S ON TUESDAY TO THE 80S REGION-WIDE ON THURSDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD, PLUS OR MINUS  
A FEW DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT THU JUN 24 2021  
 
FOR KGLD AND KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. THE GENERAL SCENARIO CALLS FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT KGLD IN THE 03Z-07Z TIMEFRAME  
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. FROM 08Z-15Z THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND SUB VFR CIGS AND MAYBE SOME FOG/MIST.  
AFTER 16Z VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 23Z. WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE GUSTING UP TO  
20KTS OR SO FROM THE NORTHEAST, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VARIABLE IN  
DIRECTION AT SPEEDS UNDER 8KTS.  
 
FOR KMCK ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE IN THE 06Z-11Z  
TIMEFRAME AT THIS TIME. SUB VFR CIGS IN STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE FROM  
12Z-17Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST,  
STRONGEST AT TAF ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS OR SO EXPECTED.  
 
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SITES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED  
AS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...KMK  
SHORT TERM...KMK  
LONG TERM...JBH  
AVIATION...99  
 
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