666
FXUS63 KGLD 220607
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1207 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND LATE TOMORROW.
MOST SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND FLOODING.
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO REACH THE MID 100S,
LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MDT WED JUL 22 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA WITH
WINDS FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS AROUND THE
WY/NE/CO BORDER HAS PUSHED OUTFLOW OUT TO THE EAST, HELPING NEW
STORMS DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST. LIKELY, THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT FAR EAST WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. BUT STILL, CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AND
HELP STABILIZE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. IF STORMS DID MAKE IT TO THE AREA, IT WOULD LIKELY BE NORTH
OF I-70 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO LINGER PAST SUNRISE.
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WEDNESDAY MAY START WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRYING TO LINGER MAINLY AROUND THE NEBRASKA BORDER AREA. WITH THIS,
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN PORTIONS SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHO
REMAIN CLOUD COVERED. FOR THOSE FURTHER SOUTH OR WHO CLEAR OUT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL, AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, HELPING TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH A BIT FURTHER TO
THE EAST. WITH THE HIGH PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND THE FORECAST
CALLING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A BIT STRONGER. WINDS SHOULD
REACH 15-25 MPH FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-40
MPH.
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE FORECAST TO BRING OUR FIRST GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN AWHILE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO INCREASE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND HELP GENERATE STORMS. COMBINING THIS THE UPPER RIDGE
BECOMING SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED SHOULD ALLOW STORMS A BETTER CHANCE
TO FORM AND SURVIVE. IN MOST FORECAST SCENARIOS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO HAVE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE, 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-35
KTS, FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 17000FT, LCLS AROUND 8000-11000FT. WITH
THIS, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
EITHER HAIL OR TORNADOES. WITH THIS AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW AROUND
30 KTS, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF A FEW MICROBURSTS WITH WIND GUSTS IN
THE 50 TO 65 MPH RANGE. GIVEN THESE WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH
THE CLUSTER WEST OF THE AREA LATE YESTERDAY, IT WOULD SEEM
REASONABLE FOR ONE TO MAYBE TWO INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND.
THE OTHER CONDITION OF NOTE IS THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WHILE
DOWNSHEAR VECTORS AROUND 25-30KTS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE, THE ISSUE IS IF A SUPERCELL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE
LIMITED ENVIRONMENT. RIGHT MOVER SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
5KTS. WITH THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS LIKELY ALLOWING FOR MELTING HAIL
AND MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION, THIS COULD LEAD TO AN AREA
OR TWO RECEIVING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
PERIOD. SO WHILE I WOULD SAY THE CHANCE FOR EITHER SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OR FLOODING ANYWHERE IN THE AREA IS LESS THAN 10%, KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR A POTENTIAL QUICK HITTING HAZARD. THIS WOULD
ESPECIALLY BE MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST WHERE STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO FORM.
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
TRY AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA HAS A
CHANCE TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY INHIBITED AND HAVE LESS INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH. THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE PULSE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOWS THAT FADE AWAY SOMEWHAT QUICKLY.
WITH THIS, NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MUCH OF EITHER A SEVERE OR
FLOODING THREAT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THOUGH ANY FORM OF
TRAINING/CLUSTERING WOULD POSE AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT FOR
FLOODING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR CLEAR
THE AREA TO THE EAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER THOUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S IF
NOT THE LOW 70S.
THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS DEAMPLIFIED AND WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE JUST A
PINCH LOWER WITH SOME LOCALES MAYBE CAPPING IN THE UPPER 80S DUE
TO THE DEAMPLIFYING OF THE RIDGE AND INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
AIR MAKING IT HARDER TO WARM UP. OTHERWISE, 90S ARE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THOSE SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE LOW 100S
AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
LIGHTER AS WELL WITH THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
SURFACE LOW BROADENING A BIT. SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE MORE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA RE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP MORE STORMS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, AND THEN PUSH THEM EAST. GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT MORE ON HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT THIS TIME, MAKING
HAZARDS A LITTLE HARDER TO PIN DOWN. HOWEVER, GENERALLY IF A
GUIDANCE HAD HIGHER INSTABILITY, THE SHEAR WAS LOWER AND VICE-VERSA.
FOR NOW, THIS LEADS TO ME THINK THE ENSEMBLES ARE RIGHT AND THAT
STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE PULSEY IN NATURE. IF THIS IS THE CASE, EXPECT
FLOODING AND MAYBE A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS AGAIN. EVEN WITH STORM MOTIONS BEING FASTER, THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO THE LOW COULD ALLOW FOR
TRAINING OR CLUSTERING TO PUSH MULTIPLE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA,
GIVING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO FAVOR SOUTH OF I-70 AT
THIS TIME. AS A CAUTION, THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW
SLOWS AND TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA. IN THIS CASE, ALL HAZARDS BECOME
POSSIBLE AND THE RISK FOR FLOODING INCREASES. WHILE LESS THAN 10%
BASED ON ENSEMBLE CHARTS, KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES.
STORMS AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AGAIN TO THE EAST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND LEAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE LIKELY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SYNOPTICALLY FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN TO STALL
OUT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN AND GREAT PLAINS REGION. LOOKING AT
THE MID LEVELS GUIDANCE DOES HAVE SOME AGREEMENT ON THERE BEING
SOME SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEGIN SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
OVERALL FOR THIS PERIOD, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND HOT.
THE DAILY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH 90S AND LOW 100S. THE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
STARTING WITH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT DUNDY,
HITCHCOCK, AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES WILL HAVE AROUND A 30-50% OF
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. THE NBM AND LREF HOWEVER DO SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THE
NBM IS FAVORING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE
NEBRASKA COUNTIES WHEREAS, THE LREF FAVORS AREAS EAST OF CO HWY
385 HAVING A 30-50% OF SEEING ABOVE 100 FOR HIGHS. AS FOR
SUNDAY, THE LREF HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA HAVING AROUND A
25-75% OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NBM HAS SIMILAR COVERAGE WITH
AREAS EAST OF CO HWY 385 BUT VALUES IN THE 20-60%. MONDAY
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT MORE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND IS SHOWING
THAT THERE IS AROUND A 20-45% CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES
HIGHER THAN 100 DEGREES. THE MAIN AREAS FOR SEEING THESE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EAST OF KS HWY 25/83 AND SOUTH OF US HWY
40.
MOVING TO PRECIPATION CHANCES, THE HIGHEST DAYS TO SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENTLY FOR EACH
DAY POPS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30% FOR AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 83.
LOOKING AT SFC-CAPE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THERE TO BE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. SFC-500 MB SHEAR THERE IS AROUND 20-30 KTS WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST STORMS TO BE UNORGANIZED IF THEY ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN THIS IS AROUND A WEEK OUT AND WILL A FAIR AMOUNT
CAN CHANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN CLOSER TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND 300-600FT AT
KGLD TONIGHT. IN REGARDS TO STORMS/SHOWERS, KMCK HAS A 10-15%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND 10-14Z AS A CLUSTER TRIES
TO PUSH EAST FROM NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. OTHERWISE, KGLD AND KMCK
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE CLOSER TO THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER
CLUSTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT RANGE AND PUSH
EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, BUT WIND GUSTS COULD NEAR
30-50 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...KAK
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