350
FXUS63 KGLD 050958
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
258 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE TX AND
OK PANHANDLES MOVING SOUTHEAST. A LARGE EXPANSE OF RAINFALL IS
CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. BEHIND THE
CLOSED LOW A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
TODAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES AS THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THE CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW. NORTH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO THE INVERSION PREVENTING THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES THROUGH. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.
SATURDAY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WINDS MIX DOWN AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL HELP WITH THE
WAA, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S AND 70S.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 20% FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING. BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF YUMA COUNTY AND THE WESTERN HALF OF DUNDY COUNTY.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FOR YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES. TO
BETTER LINE UP WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH
SIDE THAT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WILL MEET CRITERIA. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES WILL MEET
CRITERIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S,
REACHING CLOSE TO 40 FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021
THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY AND WARM TO START THE WEEK BEFORE A
SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE SOME
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AS RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALOFT AND LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE STAYS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT THE AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP. SO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED
TO REACH UPPER 60'S AND LOW 70'S BOTH DAYS WITH SUNSHINE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND PUTS THE TRI-STATE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE FRONT RANGES AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE DRY AIR LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HENCEFORTH, TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS HIGH AS
THE MID 70'S. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE COOLER AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
LATE TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
50'S TO MID 60'S. AS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES,
FORECAST CALLS FOR 40'S AND 50'S WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
TROUGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. ALSO WORTH NOTING IS THAT LATE
WEDNESDAY'S LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND INCREASE SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN
OF AIR. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS TROUGH
AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES SHOW THAT THE DEPTH AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
THE TROUGH ARE IN QUESTION. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF IT FORMING A
CLOSED LOW BEFORE MOVING EAST. SO PLENTY OF FACTORS COULD CHANGE THE
FORECAST THOUGH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM MST THU MAR 4 2021
MCK WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CLOUDS AND AN AREA OF FOG MOVING INTO THE
AREA, BUT LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEEPING IT
FURTHER OUT OF THE AREA, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT.
GLD WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 10Z ALONG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 12Z WITH HIGHER
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...LOCKHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page