729  
FXUS63 KGLD 161000  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
400 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 700-500MB HUMIDITY  
REACHES FAR EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON MOVING INTO PARTS OF  
WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING  
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 700MB AND 500MB  
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM SUGGESTING THAT A VERY LOW THREAT FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ALTHOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE  
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT. 850MB  
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 3F TO 5F ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO MONDAY  
SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 99F TO 103F RANGE. BIAS  
CORRECTED GRIDS DID BETTER YESTERDAY AND SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID  
90S TO AROUND 100. BLENDING THE TWO PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO  
AROUND 100 WHICH IS WHAT WE'LL GO WITH. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM  
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE 70-74F RANGE FROM  
MCCOOK TO OAKLEY AND POINTS EAST.  
 
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE IN THE 700-  
500MB LAYER AND SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT MOVES INTO AREA IN A  
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 700MB  
AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER WARM ONCE AGAIN AND SHOULD LIMIT  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND  
MAYBE HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE  
TO INCREASE ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WITH MID 90S TO AROUND 100 IN FAR  
EASTERN COLORADO, 100 TO 105 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW  
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE  
MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  
 
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN  
THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND -3C  
FURTHER SUPPORTING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 100-  
105F RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE WEST,  
LOW/MID 70S IN THE EAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SPANNING MOST OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN TO THE  
NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST  
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL RESULT IN WEST-  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
FRIDAY MERITS MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE HEAT MESSAGING. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN MOST  
AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT OR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA  
EAST OF HWY 83 IN KANSAS.  
 
IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 20 PERCENT OR  
BELOW IN THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND  
WEST OF KANSAS HWY 27. PORTIONS OF OUR COLORADO COUNTIES DO HAVE  
THE POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR A FEW  
HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10 MPH. WILL  
WANT TO CONTINUE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING  
FROM THE MID-90S IN NORTHWESTERN COLORADO TO THE LOW 100S. HEAT  
INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF HWY 83, SO  
WILL WANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HEAT RELATED  
MESSAGING. MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE  
CYCLONE WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. A CHANCE  
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW DUE TO CONCERNS OF AREAL  
COVERAGE BEING SPOTTY.  
 
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH A  
POSSIBLE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND IT. ZONAL FLOW WILL  
SET UP OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY  
IN HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON US AS IT TRACKS  
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-80S TO MID-90S AND LOWS  
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S. CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS  
AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FROM 17Z  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE  
01Z-03Z TIMEFRAME AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER OR BE NEAR  
THE TERMINAL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS  
AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT AT  
SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...AW  
AVIATION...99  
 
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