917
FXUS63 KGLD 031723
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 80'S BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND 4-CORNERS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND,
PLACING THE GOODLAND CWA WELL SOUTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES (UPPER LEVEL JET).
TODAY: A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED-OUT IF
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESENT THINKING
IS THAT.. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT (AND MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET) ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TO 850
MB TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ~10-15 MPH SOUTH WINDS (AND SOME DEGREE
OF MIXING), LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MITIGATING FOG
POTENTIAL. SOUTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST-TO-EAST AS THE
SURFACE-850 MB TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS DURING
THE DAY. IN NORTHEAST CO, ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING TROUGH, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO THE N THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS IN WY AND THE NE
PANHANDLE IS 4 TO 6C WARMER THAN THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
OVER THE GOODLAND CWA (REFERENCE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT 07Z THIS
MORNING ON SPC MESOANALYSIS), NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL,
SOMEWHAT HUMOROUSLY, LEAD TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER-MID 80'S IN
NORTHEAST CO TO THE MID-UPPER 70'S IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
GOODLAND CWA.
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N OR NE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MODEST (~1024 MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH CLEAR SKIES, LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE A
FUNCTION OF WIND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES ASSOC/W THE INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT BREEZY (10-20
MPH) N TO NE WINDS DURING THE EVENING IN CO-NE AND EARLY MORNING
IN KS. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40'S IN CO (WHERE WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WELL PRIOR TO
SUNRISE) TO THE UPPER 40'S AND LOWER 50'S ELSEWHERE, WARMEST
(RELATIVELY SPEAKING) IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, E.G.
HILL CITY, GOVE CITY, LEOTI.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: A MODESTLY COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GOODLAND CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL FOSTER RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TODAY,
COOLEST (~70F) IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WARMEST IN CO
(ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH) WHERE MODEST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70'S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40'S (EAST) TO LOWER 50'S (WEST).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A PATTERN OF QUIET WEATHER AS NEXT
WEEKEND APPROACHES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLACES US ON THE LEE SIDE
OF AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRIEFLY BECOMING MERIDIONAL WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SAID
RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO AMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS THAT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM THIS OTHER THAN
WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH. RECENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CWA TUESDAY, BUT
THIS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BEFORE WEDNESDAY ARRIVES. RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND
HEADING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
5% FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO CONSISTENTLY SIT AROUND THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEST DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF KANSAS
HIGHWAY 25 SEEING UP TO LOW 60S.
AS WE HEAD INTO FIRE WEATHER SEASON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) AND
SURFACE WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE RELEVANT FOR THE REGION. FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN PARTICULAR, RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP DURING EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING
TAKES PLACE. RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA, 40-60% SHOULD BE
COMMONPLACE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH TO MORE FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE.
WEAKER 5-10 MPH NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY. A WEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST,
BOTH AT 5-15 MPH. GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LOW HUMIDITY IN EASTERN COLORADO,
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THUS, FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THERE SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS
AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER KMCK
FROM ~21-23Z AND KGLD ~20-22Z, WITH THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS
~10-15 KTS BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ~10
KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH ~00Z BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE TO AROUND
5 KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...KMK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page