287
FXUS63 KGLD 211202
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 AM MST MON JAN 21 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST MON JAN 21 2019
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODELS LOOK TO HAVE STARTED OUT FINE WITH THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER TWO CONCERNS HERE. FIRST THE STORM SYSTEM HAD NOT
BEEN COMPLETELY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK SINCE IT DID NOT
MOVE INLAND UNTIL EARLY LAST EVENING. ALSO THE MODELS INITIALLY HAVE
THE SYSTEM A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST.
ALSO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM A LITTLE. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A VERY STRONG UPPER JET DIVING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. VERY LARGE HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD AIR HAVE ACCOMPANIED
THIS SYSTEM.
TODAY...CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE
OCCURRING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN DROPPING
DOWN TO AT LEAST A HALF MILE IN SOME PLACES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS
LIFT CLOUDS AND GET RID OF THE FOG BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER MODELS
DIFFER ON THIS ON TIMING AND WHERE EXACTLY SUN OR LITTLE TO NO
SUN WILL BE THE DAY. SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS RATHER
PROBLEMATIC. KEPT THE ORIGINAL THINKING FROM YESTERDAYS DAY SHIFT.
HOWEVER, THIS IS UNCERTAIN.
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...SYSTEM APPEARS TO NOT START AFFECTING THE AREA
UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED AND HOW
FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THAT
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST WITH THE LOW CENTER WHICH WOULD GIVE MORE OF THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT/SUPPORTING LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THE ONE CERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM
LOOKS TO BE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE FORECAST HAS 25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 MPH. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE WINDS COULD
GET 5 TO 10 MPH STRONGER THAN THIS.
SO BECAUSE OF THE THREATS OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST
OF THE AREA FROM MID EVENING TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES BEING LEFT OUT OF THIS ADVISORY.
DETAILS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL NOT CLEAR DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN
TRACK OF THE STORM. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
PLENTY OF WINTER WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.
TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHTER WINDS, AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST MON JAN 21 2019
INITIAL CONCERNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL CENTER
AROUND NEXT STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
BRING A SUDDEN BLAST OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN DAY BEFORE. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
RIGHT AROUND 12Z THINK WE MAY AVOID THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH A
PERIOD OF 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS, WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INSTABILITY LINES UP WITH FRONTAL SCALE LIFT BETWEEN 12-18Z
THURSDAY, BUT GIVEN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAVE MY DOUBTS
THINGS WILL SATURATE QUICK ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS SMALL
WINDOW. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR TWO BEHIND FRONT THAT
MAY CREATE PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW ISSUES, BUT CHANCES SEEM SMALL
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
PRIMARILY WITH MAGNITUDE OF THE H5 LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A FEW SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LIKELY LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE SYSTEMS, DO NOT
THINK THERE ARE ANY GREAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FRONTS A
BIG SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AND CANADIAN'S MUCH COLDER SOLUTION FOR
THE WEEKEND, DOES NOT FEEL LIKE A PATTERN WHERE MUCH SKILL CAN BE
ADDED TO THE MEAN FORECAST VALUES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 449 AM MST MON JAN 21 2019
FOR KGLD, LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7
TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 18Z. AT 18Z VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTH WINDS NEAR 7 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. FROM 06Z TO 09Z, MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 13
KNOTS. AT 09Z CONDITIONS BECOME IFR AS THE NORTH WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 23 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 31 KNOTS.
FOR KMCK, LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS UNTIL 04Z. AT 04Z THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. AT 06Z IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 11 KNOTS.
FROM 09Z TO 11Z CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY MVFR AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26 KNOTS. AT 11Z THE
CONDITIONS BECOME IFR AS THE WIND INCREASES TO NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 32 KNOTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
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