693
FXUS63 KGLD 130830 CCA
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIM CHANCE OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA.
- BREEZY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH FORECAST TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- SIGNAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE EDGE OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN
THIS OCCUR THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LITTLE STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.
A SMALL WINDOW OF PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
IN THAT OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS HREF AND REFS 00Z DATA
DO NOT SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL.HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE
03Z SREF WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE NAM HAS BEEN SUGGESTING FOR
THE COVERAGE OF CURRENT DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CLOUDS SO HAVE ADDED
IN PATCHY FOG WORDING INTO THE FORECAST.
MONDAY, SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
90S REMAIN FORECAST AS THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO HELP KEEP THE AREA FROM WARMING FURTHER. WINDS ARE
TRENDING A BIT STRONGER DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT
STRONGER OF AN 850MB JET IN PLACE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE
FORECAST ALONG WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN PLACE AS
OVER THE PAST SIMILAR DAYS WE HAVE WEAKER 700MB WINDS ALOFT TO LIMIT
THE GUST POTENTIAL. HIGHS FOR THE DAY APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S. AM NOTICING
A SUBTLE THETA E BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ROUGHLY AROUND
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR WHERE A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM MAY BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 5% IN
ANYTHING DEVELOPING BUT THE 00Z NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE AROUND 92 DEGREES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
VERY UNLIKELY BUT WOULD NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS WITH DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG. ANY STORMS WOULD BE
VERY SHORT LIVED WITH THE NEBULOUS FORCING AND VERY WEAK SHEAR
PREVENTING ANY MOVEMENT AND ORGANIZATION.
MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST SLIGHTLY EXPANDS
WESTWARD AND A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE IS GOING TO
CONTINUE TO PINCH THE FORECAST AREA IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A DEVELOPING 30-40 KNOT 850MB JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO STATE LINE.
SOME SUBTLE 1 HOUR PRESSURE RISES IS ALSO SEEN ON THE 00Z RAP
AND NAM WHICH SUGGESTS TO ME THAT BREEZY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH
ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT
SHOULD THE HOURLY PRESSURE RISES OCCUR.
TUESDAY, RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. WINDS ALSO DO APPEAR TO BE VERY
SIMILAR AS WELL TO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR AS
WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S BUT COULD END UP BEING A LITTLE
BIT LOWER IF CLOUD COVER CAN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS
THE DAY GOES ON A WESTWARD MOVING 500MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA PUTTING THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS
JET, MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME POTENTIAL SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS INTERACTS WITH AN 850MB JET DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BUT CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY, A SEMI PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING A SLIGHT REPRIEVE
TO TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE TO
OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS FOR THE DAY
APPEAR TO BE WEAKER AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE 850MB JET
DECREASING TO AROUND 10- 15 KNOTS AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY
700MB JETS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THURSDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE SITTING ACROSS
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, PUSHING THE JET INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LARGELY CALMER WEATHER, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE HOT AND
POTENTIALLY HUMID. THIS PATTERN LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND, A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO FORM OVER
TEXAS AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY 850 MB
FEATURES. AS IT STANDS, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. COUPLED WITH A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT, WE COULD
SEE STORMS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT, THE
FLOW LOOKS TO BE FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD DRY OUT THE CWA A
LITTLE BIT. EVEN THOUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAYS
FOR CONVECTION, EACH DAY HAS A CHANCE AT WEAK CONVECTION FROM
CONVECTIVE-T DRIVEN STORMS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG-TERM ARE PRETTY PERSISTENT. HIGHS LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE 90S, POTENTIALLY NEARING 100 IN THE SOUTHER CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW
TO MID 70S IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DRY US OUT A BIT
MORE IN THE LATE WEEKEND, THERE IS STILL ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS IT STANDS, RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20%. HOWEVER, DAILY GUSTS IN THE 20-35 KTS RANGE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX THROUGH MOST OF THE
COLUMN, ALLOWING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS WOULD HAVE A MODERATELY HIGH POTENTIAL OF
CREATING DRY LIGHTNING, ADDING ANOTHER RISK TO FIRE CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM DECAYED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA
IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS AROUND GLD AROUND SUNRISE BUT CURRENTLY
THE SIGNAL IS LESSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS SO AM OPTING TO
LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOMING
BREEZY BEING SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR
SOME SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TRIGG
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