343
FXUS63 KGLD 280801
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-70.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY BUT AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF NUISANCE
FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND PERHAPS SOME BLOWING DUST.
EASTERN COLORADO IS FAVORED FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
- SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES IS REMAINING CLEAR AS A SURFACE
HIGH HAS NUDGED ITSELF INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LEADING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS LED TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. AS LONG AS THE RADAR CAN REMAIN RAIN FREE THINK
THIS POTENTIAL CAN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT
HAVE ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE FORECAST. CAN'T RULE OUT OUT SOME
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG ALONG I-70 AS THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
SURFACE TO 1KM MIXING RATIO LIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS EMANATING OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONTO THE PLAINS AND THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 315K
ISENTROPIC SURFACES ON 00Z RAP AND NAM BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER
BOUNDARY BEING LOCATED BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND HIGHWAY 36. SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE THAT SAW HEAVIER RAIN EARLY TODAY AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND
1.7 TO 2 INCHES WHICH IS QUITE JUICY FOR NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN AROUND 15-30 KNOTS WHICH ISN'T
OVERLY SLOW BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY
WITH THOSE PWATS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME DRY AIR
REMAINING HOWEVER NORTH OF I- 70 WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SHUNT
THE BETTER COVERAGE OFF TO THE SOUTH. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY BUT STILL CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE 60-70 MPH
WET MICROBURST. THE NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TUESDAY. IF WE DONT'T GET THE COVERAGE OF STORM CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED THEN THE ENVIRONMENT IS SETUP FOR DENSE FOG. DUE TO
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AM LEAVING FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH CLOSER
TO THE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE SOUTHWEST. SHALLOW MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP PREVENT
DRIER AIR ALOFT FALLING TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN ANOTHER
MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. I DID BRING UP DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO THIS FACT AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS I HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT CLOUD
COVER REMAINING THICK THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO COME OFF OF
THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY INCREASING AGAIN
OUR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES HAVE
A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE COLORADO COUNTIES. DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH HIGH MUCAPE, DCAPE AND MICROBURST COMPOSITES AROUND 5.
VERY HIGH PWATS AGAIN AROUND 1.7 TO 2 IS FORECAST ALONG WITH
SIMILAR CORFIDI UPSHEAR AND DOWNSHEAR VECTORS OF 20-30 KNOTS.
WIND SHEAR DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER THAN MONDAY WITH 0-6
BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KNOTS SO SOME HAIL STILL A BIT HIGH FOR
A FLOODING CONCERN BUT WITH THE PWATS SOME NUISANCE FLOODING MAY
AGAIN BE ON THE TABLE. SOME GUIDANCE EITHER HAS OUTFLOW GETTING
TOO FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND WEAKENING THEM AS THEY
APPROACHING THE STATE LINE AND OTHERS HAS THE STORMS MISSING THE
AREA ENTIRELY AS THE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. CURRENTLY AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
STORMS AT THE MINIMUM ENTER THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS
315K MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. CURRENTLY THINK THE STORMS WILL
MAKE IT TO THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR AT THE LEAST AS MOISTURE
VECTORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CLUSTER HEALTHY. AM A BIT
CONCERNED HOWEVER ABOUT THE FACT THAT SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
THE OUTFLOW COMING OUT FROM IT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WHICH
IF IS THE CASE WOULD END ANY SEVERE AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SHOULD WE GET THE CLUSTER OF STORM OR THE OUTFLOW WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR BLOWING DUST ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WHO THE SMALLEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN OCCURRED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
***WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY***
A LONGWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO STILL BE OVERHEAD AT 500-MB WEDNESDAY
BASED ON GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. AT THE SAME TIME, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE RIDGE. A SURFACE LOW AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO, WHERE NBM 24
HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN. CHANCES THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE
APPEAR MARGINAL AT THIS TIME, AS LREF GUIDANCE AND GFS/EC MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR MAXING OUT AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND
60 MPH, AS GFS AND NAMNST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE, FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURSTS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY REDUCE DRAMATICALLY. NBM PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT LESS THAN A ONE IN THREE
CHANCE TO RECEIVE GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IS HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH IS
STILL ONLY AROUND 5-10%. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
***FRIDAY/SATURDAY***
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS TO
TRANSLATE WESTWARD INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, AND ESTABLISH
APPROXIMATELY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AT 500-MB. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD HOVER IN THE LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THIS PATTERN FAVORS NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THIS PERIOD, AS POPS (PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION) FALL BELOW 15% ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.
***SUNDAY/MONDAY***
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ONCE
AGAIN BRING THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST REGION, BUT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS OCCURS. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS WELL, AS GEFS 850-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW UNDER
THIS PATTERN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE
LOWER 20S ON SUNDAY, AND UPPER TEENS ON MONDAY. WHILE THESE RHS ARE
LOW, THEY DO NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA (<15%).
ADDITIONALLY, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE LESS THAN A
50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EITHER DAY.
THE MAIN EXCEPTIONS ARE PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WHERE THERE IS UP TO A 70% CHANCE. AS SUCH, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS ZONE MAY
BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, ESPECIALLY SINCE FUELS ARE DRIER
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING CURRENTLY AROUND EACH
TERMINAL. IF A A SHOWER/STORM WERE TO IMPACT A TERMINAL THEN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD OCCUR.
AFTER 09Z CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN SOME
WHICH IS THE REASONING FOR THE PROB30 FOR NOW. SHOULD STORMS
CONTINUE THEY WOULD LAST THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS FOR THE
DAY TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AM WATCHING FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS, POTENTIALLY IMPACT GLD TOWARDS THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WILL MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL SO
WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FOR NOW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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