403
FXUS63 KGLD 211836
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1236 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. OVERALL, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY (THURSDAY).
- WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING OUT OF COLORADO. SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- HEAT PEAKS TODAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IS BUILDING IN THE
AREA WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
IN THIS PATTERN WITH THE CONVECTION, AND WILL PROBABLY DO SO
ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE
12Z CAMS. THEY ARE MISSING SOME OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH
ULTIMATELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE, SUCH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF I-70 ORIGINATING FROM
MORNING CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
DETAILS, GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A
SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS,
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
ORIGINATING IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SUSTAINED BY A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. IF THOSE STORMS DEVELOP AND CLUSTER, MAY SEE
ANOTHER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT,
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT MAXIMIZED
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA (EAST OF HIGHWAY 25). MAY SEE
ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP LATE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA WITH
A MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS MUCAPE LINGERS AT 1000-1500
J/KG. OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND BRIEFLY
GUSTY. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AREA, BUT IT
WOULD BE TRANSIENT.
ON SATURDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL RUN FROM EASTERN WYOMING
AND COLORADO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
SPREADING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL,
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 03Z, STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING BUT MAY
STILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY MAKE
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON SUNDAY AND EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP THROUGH
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FRONT RANGE, AND ONCE AGAIN MAKE THE TREK ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL ARRIVE SLIGHTLY
EARLIER, 00-02Z, IN FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MAY STILL POSE A
MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT, BUT WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS, SEVERE CHANCES WILL
BE LOW. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT ON MONDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES IN
COLORADO, AND THE ZONAL FLOW IS THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING.
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS. RFS
SUGGESTS A FEW SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING, MOVING EAST AND
THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH PERHAPS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY, 597 DAM HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SW CONUS. AS LONG AS IT REMAINS
SITUATED IN THAT POSITION THE POTENTIAL FOR LOBES OF VORTICITY
TO MOVE AROUND THE HIGH WILL KEEP OUR SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL
IN PLAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO LOOK REASONABLE AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AN EVEN STRONGER WAVE
TUESDAY AS WELL. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT MONDAY HOWEVER AS
CAPE AND SHEAR MAY BE A BIT LACKING WHICH SEEMS LIKE A DECENT
SCENARIO FOR OUTFLOW TO GET OUT AHEAD OF STORMS AND THEY
DISSIPATE WHICH WHICH ECMWF ENSEMBLE QPF OUTPUT ON MOST MEMBERS
SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A REALISTIC CONCERN. BOTH MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR. SOME QPF OUTPUTS
ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SO MAY
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT HEIGHTS RISE AS SOME RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS
WHICH IS SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED TO HELP SUPPRESS ANY ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS SIGNAL WERE TO CHANGE THEN A SIMILAR
PATTERN TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD ENSUE AND KEEP OUR DAILY
STORM CHANCES IN PLAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUED TO BE FORECAST IN THE 90S FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 850MB MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE AS WELL WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S INSTEAD OF WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO EVEN TRIPLE
DIGITS. HOWEVER IF THE OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE THEN THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES COULD BE
REALIZED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING
EITHER KGLD OR KMCK. TONIGHT, SOME MODEST INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY AT KMCK,
WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN.
OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS, MAINLY AT KGLD, THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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