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FXUS63 KGLD 241023
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
TODAY-TONIGHT: AN OCCLUDED /VERTICALLY STACKED/ CYCLONE SITUATED
INVOF THE CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER AT 09Z THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, TRACKING EAST ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE (BRIEF, AS IT MAY BE) WILL AID
IN DRIVING AN INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFT/EVE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER, THOUGH AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST FROM NV TO THE 4-CORNERS
THIS MORNING WILL TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. DPVA
ATTENDANT THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND THE ONSET OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /UPSLOPE FLOW/
ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING-TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY IN THE 04-10Z TIME FRAME.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA MON-MON NIGHT AS A LEE TROUGH/CYCLONE
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO AMIDST NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN
THIS PERIOD. EXPECT A NOTICABLE WARMING TREND IN ASSOCIATION WITH
HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW / LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONTO SHORE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S IN MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE IN NEBRASKA.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. ANY CHANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST SO LEFT
POPS OUT FOR THE TIME PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTLINE
TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT OVER THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, HOWEVER THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH IT'S DEVELOPMENT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS DIGS SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE CLOSED LOW
MOVES OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD, THOUGH BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD -- PRIMARILY AT THE GLD TERMINAL BETWEEN 04-10Z
MONDAY. WNW-NW WINDS ~10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE N AT 7-12 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE VEERING TO THE NE-ENE-E THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...VINCENT
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