844
FXUS63 KGLD 190637
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1237 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH MONDAY.
- THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED STRESS WILL BE HIGHEST ON MONDAY WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING STORM CHANCES RETURN BY MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE H5 RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT
THE SURFACE, VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH
LOW/TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING AND WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
RIDGE CENTER GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
WITH FRONT LIKELY NOT ENTERING AREA UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
DRY/SUBSIDENT PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF FRONT, DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AS IT PASSES. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING IMPACTS. IN A LOT OF
WAYS, FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE RATHER PERSISTENT AS PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE FROM WHAT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM ALOFT ANOTHER 3-5C EXPECT EACH DAY TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK
ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH DID NOT A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND ON ENSEMBLE VALUES AND SOME BIAS CORRECTED DATA
BEING A BIT LESS BULLISH ON COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE WARMING TREND ALOFT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL SITUATION GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS THE HEAT BUILDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES THREAT FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. GOING STRICTLY BY HEAT INDICES, NOT SURE IF WE WOULD MEET
THE TRADITIONAL THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. HOWEVER, NWS HEAT
RISK ALGORITHM SHOWING AREAS OF MAJOR IMPACT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AS WELL AS IMPACTS/POOR RECOVERY WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH FAIR SEASON GETTING
GOING AND THIS BEING ONE OF THE HOTTEST PERIODS THIS YEAR, THINK
A HEAT ADVISORY MONDAY IS WARRANTED.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND BEING NOTICEABLY STRONGER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WHILE TECHNICALLY A
COLD FRONT, CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER. NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG
FRONT RANGE OR EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN HOW NARROW THIS INITIAL
INSTABILITY AXIS IS AND ITS RATHER FAST MOTION, NOT CONFIDENT
AREA WILL SEE ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY GEFS PROBABILITIES. CHANCES
SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION
PROVIDES LIFT REQUIRED TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS. IF
THESE DO DEVELOP, NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER AS INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
TUESDAY: THE DOMINANT 500 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ON
TUESDAY, BUT THE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE CORE
OF THE HIGHER HEAT (TEMPERATURES) WILL START TO WANE, LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SIT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOOKING AT THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) PROBABILISTIC DATA, MAX TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 95 (WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 60% OR LESS FOR TUESDAY
(INDICATING A GRADUALLY COOLING TREND) AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS WARM WEATHER CONTINUES.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A MORE NOTICEABLE PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES BY
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION HAS A QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WITH
DECENT VORTICITY SPIN WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW. AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS IN EASTERN COLORADO MAY ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 80S.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME INDICATION OF CAPE (INSTABILITY) PROFILES THAT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WITH LOTS OF LOWER DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH INVERTED V TYPE
SOUNDINGS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 9 AND 15KTS
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM
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