121  
FXUS63 KGLD 041109  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
509 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2".  
 
- ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
- REMAINING MILD THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 90S.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  
LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL  
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH HREF  
MEAN SHOWING UP TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND SURFACE-500MB SHEAR  
OF AROUND 20 KTS. CAMS HAVE MOSTLY RETREATED FROM A LINE OF  
STORMS TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE, WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF  
HIGHWAY 25 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND STILL LOOKS TO BE  
THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK, BUT ONLY NEAR ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS  
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE  
TO LACK OF SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A  
CONCERN, WITH 3-HOUR PMM SHOWING SOME MEDIUM PROBABILITIES  
(50-70%) OF 1-2" IN THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON, THEN EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD  
POSSIBLY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING. TONIGHT,  
BETTER STORM CHANCES GENERALLY SHIFT EAST, BUT STILL EXPECT  
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLOW  
TO MOVE OUT. IN FACT, LATEST HRRR AND NAMNEST BOTH SUGGESTING A  
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND DIVE  
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR,  
MIGHT SEE MORE OF AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
REST OF TODAY...  
 
BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. REMNANT SHORTWAVE VORTEX LIFTING NE  
OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF A SET OF TROF AXES AND ATTENDANT  
SHORTWAVES EJECTING E THROUGH THE N PACIFIC JET. ENHANCEMENT OF THE  
SW TO NE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ALONG  
WITH THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF A LEE CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY E OF THE  
ROCKIES. INCREASING S WINDS DRAWING N DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE,  
NOTABLY FROM FWD / OUN WHERE 12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A NEAR-SATURATED  
COLUMN WITH +2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE  
CONTINUALLY ADVECTING N, AS CAN BE SEEN VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE, EVER  
SO SLIGHTLY COOLING THE COLUMN. WITH DAYTIME MIXING WELL UP TO 5-10  
KFT ALONG WITH EXPECTED MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON SCATTERED CUMULUS, WE  
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS, FORECAST  
TODAY AROUND THE LOW 90S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINTAINED AROUND 60  
SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 30 PERCENT. THE MAIN  
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE GUSTY S WINDS. MIX DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM WITH  
DEEP LAYER MIXING SHOULD YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH  
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH, AS HIGH AS AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE.  
 
TONIGHT...  
 
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING RESULTING  
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IT'LL STILL REMAIN BREEZY AT THE  
SURFACE. BUT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE N  
AND SUBSEQUENTLY POOLING BENEATH THE ANTICIPATED INVERSION WE WILL  
LIKELY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS INTO THE MORNING HOURS.  
WITH THE S WINDS AND DEVELOPING CLOUD DECK, THE BLANKET ACROSS THE  
REGION SHOULD KEEP LOWS MILD WITH VALUES AROUND THE MID 60S.  
 
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...  
 
LINE OF STORMS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING  
AROUND MIDDAY GOING INTO EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS  
HIGH AS 70 MPH.  
 
SYNOPTICALLY, REMNANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO  
THE N PLAINS. ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-MID LEVEL S WINDS, SUB-TROPICAL  
MOISTURE IS USURPED N. WHILE BETTER SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS  
PROGGED ACROSS THE N PLAINS BENEATH THE RRQ OF H3 JET, A TRAILING  
COLD FRONT SW TOWARDS A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES  
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A SERIES OF  
TROF AXES THROUGH THE BROADER SW TO NE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE THE  
FORCING MECHANISMS THAT WILL TOUCH OF THE FORECAST LINE OF THUNDER-  
STORMS, GIVEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN OUTCOMES PER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING  
MODELS.  
 
YET SOME UNCERTAINTY. FOR ONE, HOW QUICKLY WE BREAK OUT FROM MORNING  
LOW STRATUS AND BEGIN DESTABILIZING PRIOR. THIS YIELDS IMPLICATIONS  
FOR HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED. A CONSENSUS OF CONVECTIVE  
ALLOWING MODELS HAVE UPWARDS OF 2K J/KG POTENTIALLY MAXING ABOVE 3K  
J/KG. SECONDLY, THE TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES INITIATING POTENTIAL  
STORM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THINGS COULD KICK  
OFF EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THIRD, DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR THAT WILL  
MAINTAIN UPDRAFT MAINTENANCE. FOR CERTAIN THE SWEEPING COLD FRONT  
WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT. YET OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK TO MARGINAL. YET  
RIGHT-MOVING STORM MOTIONS AND MEAN LAYER WINDS HAVE AN ORTHOGONAL  
COMPONENT TO THE FRONT, AND SHOULD STORMS PERHAPS CREATE THEIR OWN  
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT WITH AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND PROFILE, PERHAPS  
WITH SOME EYE ON THE ANTICIPATED TRIPLE-POINT LOW IN E CO, THEN IT  
IS POSSIBLE TO SEE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE EXPECTED  
LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH.  
 
WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE  
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.5 - 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH  
FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 16 KFT AND H85 DEWPOINTS AROUND +16-17C  
THERE ARE CERTAINLY INDICATIONS OF AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF  
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. BUT THE PUSH  
OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY THROUGH THE N PACIFIC JET SHOULD MAKE THE LINE  
PROGRESSIVE ACROSS OUR REGION SUCH THAT FLOODING IS NOT SO MUCH A  
CONCERN. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED IMPACT IF IT HAPPENS TO RAIN  
WELL ENOUGH IN THE RIGHT SPOT. EXPECT SOMEONE IS GOING TO COME OUT  
WITH OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.  
 
RIGHT NOW EXPECTING THE LINE OF STORMS TO BE OUT OF THE AREA AS LATE  
AS MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH NW WINDS PREVAIL AND CONDITIONS CLEAR. AS  
WE CLEAR OUT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT  
TO LOWS AROUND THE LOW 60S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. A WASH, RINSE, REPEAT  
PATTERN. THE MAINTENANCE OF THE MONSOONAL HIGH OVER THE 4-CORNERS  
REGION WILL INVOKE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE FRONT  
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE  
N-PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOONAL HIGH, DIVING CYCLONICALLY E/SE ACROSS  
THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY SEEN A MAINTENANCE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY  
WITH THE S FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT COULD POSE POTENTIAL THREATS OF WIND, HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO SPECIFICS REMAIN LOW AT THIS  
TIME. SO, OVERALL, ON AND OFF AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS AROUND 60 WITH BREEZY S WINDS  
PREVAILING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WITH  
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH  
ABOUT 18Z BEFORE LIFTING. THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM  
COLORADO. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY  
THUNDERSTORM WHICH MOVES OVER A TERMINAL. STORMS WILL BECOME  
MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IMPACTS AT EITHER  
TERMINAL.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...024  
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL  
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL  
AVIATION...024  
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