350  
FXUS63 KGLD 050958  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
258 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 243 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021  
 
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE TX AND  
OK PANHANDLES MOVING SOUTHEAST. A LARGE EXPANSE OF RAINFALL IS  
CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. BEHIND THE  
CLOSED LOW A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WAS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  
 
TODAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF  
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES AS THE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE  
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA DUE TO THE CLEAR SKY BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW. NORTH WINDS WILL  
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO THE INVERSION PREVENTING THE  
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  
 
TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE HIGH  
MOVES THROUGH. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.  
 
SATURDAY BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL  
WINDS MIX DOWN AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AS A  
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL HELP WITH THE  
WAA, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S AND 70S.  
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE  
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO LESS THAN 20% FOR MOST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. THE BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE  
TO A CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING. BASED  
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WILL BE MET OVER THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF YUMA COUNTY AND THE WESTERN HALF OF DUNDY COUNTY.  
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FOR YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES. TO  
BETTER LINE UP WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH  
FOR HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE HIGH  
SIDE THAT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WILL MEET CRITERIA. HOWEVER  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES WILL MEET  
CRITERIA.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE. THIS  
WILL HELP KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT FOR THE  
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S,  
REACHING CLOSE TO 40 FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY AND WARM TO START THE WEEK BEFORE A  
SYSTEM MOVES IN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE SOME  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE AS RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALOFT AND LOWER SURFACE  
PRESSURE STAYS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT THE AIR MASS  
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP. SO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED  
TO REACH UPPER 60'S AND LOW 70'S BOTH DAYS WITH SUNSHINE.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND PUTS THE TRI-STATE  
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE FRONT RANGES AND MOVE EAST  
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE DRY AIR LOOKS TO  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HENCEFORTH, TUESDAY  
CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS HIGH AS  
THE MID 70'S. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE COOLER AS A  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW  
LATE TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID  
50'S TO MID 60'S. AS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES,  
FORECAST CALLS FOR 40'S AND 50'S WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE  
TROUGH MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. ALSO WORTH NOTING IS THAT LATE  
WEDNESDAY'S LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE PRECIPITATION WITH IT AS  
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER AND INCREASE SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN  
OF AIR. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS TROUGH  
AS ENSEMBLE ANOMALIES SHOW THAT THE DEPTH AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF  
THE TROUGH ARE IN QUESTION. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF IT FORMING A  
CLOSED LOW BEFORE MOVING EAST. SO PLENTY OF FACTORS COULD CHANGE THE  
FORECAST THOUGH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 957 PM MST THU MAR 4 2021  
 
MCK WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUDS  
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CLOUDS AND AN AREA OF FOG MOVING INTO THE  
AREA, BUT LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KEEPING IT  
FURTHER OUT OF THE AREA, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT.  
 
GLD WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 10Z ALONG WITH MVFR  
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 12Z WITH HIGHER  
CLOUDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252.  
 
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JTL  
LONG TERM...KAK  
AVIATION...LOCKHART  
 
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