713
FXUS63 KGLD 231133
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME FOG TUESDAY MORNING FOR GOVE/GRAHAM/NORTON
COUNTIES.
- CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS NIGHT. MAY HAVE
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
A COOLER DAY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BRINGS IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA, INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50'S, BUT
COULD SEE A FEW 40'S IF THERE ARE NO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.
THROUGH THE DAY, BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE
HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BROADEN AND WEAKEN WHICH
WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH. TONIGHT, THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE AREA
AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER,
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 30'S, EVEN WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR SOME FOG LATE IN THE
NIGHT AROUND GOVE/GRAHAM/NORTON COUNTIES AS A SURFACE LOW IN
OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO ADVECT SOME NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. MOST GUIDANCE KEEP THE MOISTURE A FEW COUNTIES EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
TOMORROW, MOST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP.
WHILE THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO STAY MOSTLY
ZONAL/NORTHWEST, SOME SLIGHT RIDGING MAY MOVE IN FROM THE
ROCKIES. COMBINE THAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUNSHINE IN
THE AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 50'S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME 60'S IF THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA QUICK ENOUGH AND KEEPS ANY ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AT BAY.
OTHERWISE, COUNTIES NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER AND ALSO EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 MAY STAY CLOSER TO 50 AS CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. TOMORROW NIGHT, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO START
CLEAR WITH WINDS STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WHICH
COULD ALLOW SOME AREAS TO COOL INTO THE TWENTIES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER WHILE
DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE INCREASES THE
WINDS TO AROUND 10 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMBINE TO
EITHER HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY OR WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EITHER DAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE /BLOCK/ WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA AS PERIODIC SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ASHORE THE PAC NW (ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE/VORTEX IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC) ERODES.. AND ULTIMATELY SUPPLANTS.. THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE, RESULTING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
(BENEATH THE RIDGE IN CANADA). WITH [1] A PRONOUNCED, PERSISTENT
RIDGE AT HIGHER LATITUDES ACTING AS A BLOCKADE AGAINST ARCTIC
AIRMASSES AND [2] A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SERIAL/PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES AT LOWER LATITUDES IN THE CENTRAL CONUS (A PATTERN
THAT SPATIOTEMPORALLY LIMITS WARM ADVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES), AN ATYPICALLY WARM AND HOMOGENOUS AIRMASS..
CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +2 TO +6C..
IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY: A MODEST LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST CO ON WEDNESDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY --
PROGGED (PROGNOSTICATED, PREDICTED) TO MOVE ASHORE CENTRAL-
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUE MORNING -- PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (TUE NIGHT) AND 4-CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES
(WED). LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY..
AS THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY BE A FUNCTION OF TWO VARIABLES: [1] WARM ADVECTION AND
[2] CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW CEILINGS/STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING (PERHAPS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON) AS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS A NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE (CHARACTERIZED
BY 850 MB DEWPOINTS +2 TO +3C) NORTHWARD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN KS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/ATOP THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
ROCKIES (IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE) WILL LIKELY
YIELD OVERCAST CEILINGS IN THE FORM OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
CIRRUS FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAY, EXCEPT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (WEST OF ~HWY 25) WHERE CIRRUS MAY ABATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTH (PARALLELS THE
ROCKIES). WHILE HIGHS ARE APT TO BE TEMPERED (TO SOME DEGREE) BY
CLOUD COVER.. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE, NONETHELESS,
EXPECTED.. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS
W/REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, CURRENT
AND RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
ANY SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE
WEAK/BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED AND PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. WITH AN
ATYPICALLY HOMOGENOUS AIRMASS /WEAK BAROCLINICITY/ OVER THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PLAINS, THIS MANNER OF DEVELOPMENT MAKES
SENSE.. I.E. FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR EXTRATROPICAL
(BAROCLINIC) CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN SUCH A PATTERN,
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
(GOODLAND CWA) WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC FORCING /DPVA/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE. THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE
UPPER WAVE AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z 12/23 GFS REFLECTS A 'WET'
SCENARIO FAVORING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KS AND SOUTHWEST NE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
WHEREAS THE 00Z 12/23 ECWMF SOLUTION DEPICTS A 'DRY' SCENARIO
WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN (OR NEAR) THE
GOODLAND CWA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP.. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT,
SHOULD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP, WINTER WEATHER IS UNLIKELY(*).
(*) IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS, THERMAL PROFILES WILL
BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN ALMOST ALL
SCENARIOS THIS WEEK. ALMOST, ALL.. SO, WHAT'S THE EXCEPTION?
THERE IS -ONE- SPECIFIC/UNIQUE SCENARIO THAT COULD PRODUCE
WINTER WEATHER, A SCENARIO IN WHICH PROLONGED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION 'MELTS-OUT' ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES,
FOSTERING A RATE-DRIVEN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO HEAVY WET SNOW.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE FOR THAT TO HAPPEN? WHAT WOULD THAT LOOK
LIKE? -- A SLOW MOVING, INTENSIFYING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE
TRI-STATE AREA WOULD *HAVE* TO BE IN THE DEFORMATION BAND /ON
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY/ OF AN INTENSIFYING MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE. SUCH SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES ARE -FAR- LESS PROBABLE
THAN OTHER OUTCOMES, AND.. CURRENT/RECENT RUNS OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF SUCH A SCENARIO.
FRI-MON: EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A WARMING TREND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE PERIODIC WAVES IN [1] CYCLONIC OR [2]
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY YIELD BOUTS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER, PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, BUT REMAIN AT 8000FT OR HIGHER. SOME VIRGA IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE SURFACE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
6 KTS OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND REACHING 8-10
KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO FROM
THE NORTHWEST, TO FROM THE EAST, TO FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
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