551
FXUS63 KGLD 031227
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO
45-55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO ~10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE STRATUS WITH MCCOOK, OBERLIN,
NORTON AND HILL CITY ALL REPORTING LESS THAN 5 MILES IN
VISIBILITY. THEY ARE ALL IN THE VICINITY OF A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW WHERE WINDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE YET. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS DECATUR, NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTY THROUGH 15Z.
STRONG WINDS HAVE BEGUN AS WELL WHERE A LOCALLY STRONGER JET
ALOFT OVER SHERMAN, THOMAS, WALLACE, LOGAN, GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES HAS BEEN MIXING DOWN 50-65 MPH WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT
FOR THIS WINDS IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH AROUND 9-10AM MT
BEFORE WANING SOME. LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS THE LEOTI AWOS FELL TO 3SM WHEN THE WINDS INCREASED SO HAVE
ADDED PATCHY BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THIS CORRELATES WITH WHERE NASASPORT HAS THE DRIEST
0-10CM SOIL MOISTURE AT AS WELL.
DID ALSO ADD SOME SPRINKLES INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS SOME -3 TO -5 MICROBARS OMEGA
MOVES THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB VORT MAX. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO ENSURE THAT STRONGER WINDS DO NOT MIX DOWN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS LESS THAN 10%
CURRENTLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
OVERVIEW (TODAY-TONIGHT): A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN
VICINITY OF NORTHWEST WYOMING AT 07Z THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
TRACK E ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY-TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED LEE
CYCLONE (~998 MB) OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS WILL WEAKEN AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS (THIS MORNING) AND EASTERN
KS (THIS AFTERNOON).
THIS MORNING: S TO SE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT
TO THE NNW DURING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW HOURS ON EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS AND A COLDER AIRMASS SURGES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG
NNW WINDS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN ~09-13Z (WEST) TO ~12-16Z (EAST),
WHEN 35-45 KNOT NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-40 MPH AND GUSTS ~45-55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50'S (WEST) TO
MID 60'S (EAST). MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER / ALTOCUMULUS MAY
INFLUENCE DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT. VIGOROUS VERTICAL
MIXING (UP TO ~11,000 FT AGL) AIDED/ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-
LEVEL (700-500 MB) COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS SD WILL LEAD TO DEEP
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NW TO WNW MID-LEVEL FLOW ~25-35 KNOTS (NORTH)
TO ~20-30 KNOTS (SOUTH). EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH AND
MINIMUM RH ~15% (NORTH) TO ~20-30 MPH AND 10-15% (SOUTH). IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.. ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW.. WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60'S
AND MINIMUM RH READINGS RANGING FROM 15-20% IN EASTERN CO AND
ADJACENT KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES TO 20-25% ELSEWHERE. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY (~15-25 MPH) NW WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SUN MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS EMBEDDED FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
DOWNSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
UPPER-60S TO MID-70S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER-TEENS. EVEN SO,
CONFIDENCE IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT ON SUNDAY IS
DECREASING, AS LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE FOR
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MEET CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION. WINDS ARE ALSO LACKING, WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING GUSTS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE, AND
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND A 30% CHANCE OR LESS FOR GUSTS TO
MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS LESS
THAN 5%.
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UNITED
STATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE HIGH IS FAVORED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST REGION DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST- CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOWER-70S, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY IS ALSO INCREASING THE FORECASTED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, NOW INTO THE MID-20S TO LOWER-30S ACROSS
THE CWA. AS SUCH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LOOK LESS PROBABLE. WHILE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS ARE IN
THE 30-45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA, THEY ARE NOT ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. CONFIDENCE IN A RED
FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED MONDAY IS ALSO LESS THAN 5%.
AS THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY EVENING, A 500-MB SPLIT FLOW LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (10- 20%) OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. FORECASTED LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION INTO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE TUESDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW MAY ALLOW WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE NBM 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE SPREAD
CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10-20
DEGREES. THIS COULD BE DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION, OR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER- 60S TO LOWER-70S, THOUGH
COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE BY TUESDAY EVENING,
SPECIFICALLY REGARDING HOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVOLVE. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS RELATIVELY BIMODAL, WHERE THE FIRST
SOLUTION SHOWS THE TROUGH PARTIALLY COMBINING WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST UNITED STATES, AND THE SECOND
SOLUTION SHOWS THE WAVE CONTINUING AS ITS OWN INDEPENDENT
SYSTEM. EITHER WAY, WARMER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORED
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S.
HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IMPACTED BASED ON WHICH OF THESE TWO SCENARIOS OCCUR. THE FIRST
SCENARIO LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT, WHEREAS
THE SECOND SOLUTION EVOLVES SLOWER AND WEAKER. AS A RESULT, NBM
75TH-25TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE 30-40
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE FIRST SOLUTION, AS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-50S TO UPPER-60S ACROSS
THE CWA INSTEAD OF THE 80S. ADDITIONALLY, ONLY ABOUT 10-20% OF
LREF SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND SCENARIO. COOLER
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID- 50S TO LOWER-60S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO BEGINS TO FAVOR
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
**623AM MT UPDATE: STRATUS APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT
INITIALLY BUT SHOULD FULLY CLEAR THE AREA AROUND 15-16Z; FOR
GLD AS EARLY AS 13Z. SOME FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AROUND MCK
WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 4SM. DO THINK THIS FOG SHOULD BE
RATHER SHORT LIVED ENDING 13-14Z AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT.**
GLD: A BRIEF PERIOD OF BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE (~12-14Z). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NNW TO NW WINDS AT 25-35 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 45-50
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ~14Z. NW TO WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO ~20-30 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS AGAIN DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. NW WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO ~15 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
MCK: IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL FOR A
FEW HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD (~12-15Z).
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NNW AND STRENGTHEN TO 25-35 KNOTS
AROUND, OR SHORTLY BEFORE, SUNRISE (~12Z) WITH GUSTS UP TO ~45
KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (UNTIL ~15Z). NW TO
WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ~20-30 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS AGAIN
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. NW
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO ~15 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7
PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT/TRIGG
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