355
FXUS63 KGLD 100927
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
MAY BRING PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
ZONAL FLOW, WITH SUBTLE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON WEDNESDAY SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
THURSDAY REMAINS UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW
60S FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). WE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SLOWLY TRAVERSING TOWARDS OUR REGION.
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) RANGE FROM 10-25%
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM 20-45% OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA BEING ON THE HIGHER END OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN MUCH MORE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK AND TIMING
FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS ARE ALSO IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS IS A WARMER SYSTEM WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BASED ON CONSISTENT DRY LAYERS ALOFT AND A
CONSISTENT 0 DEGREE CELSIUS LINE AROUND 700 MB. RAIN WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THAT IS MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE POPS FOR OUR
REGION IS THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN MODELS. THE GFS
HAS THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW MAINLY IN CENTRAL MEXICO. THE BIGGEST OUTLIERS ARE THE
CMC ENSEMBLES. THEY ARE SPLIT IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
LOW, WITH ABOUT HALF BEING IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND HALF NEAR THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A SURFACE LOW WITH A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK WOULD GIVE US LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION, WHILE A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD GIVE PUT US ON THE HIGHER END OF POPS.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE LOW ENDS UP, PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING POPS BELOW 10%.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WE RETURN TO HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 60S AND
70S. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE GET FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S WITH OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES BEING ON THE LOWER END. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 35 MPH
ON THE COLORADO SIDE OF OUR CWA AS WELL. GIVEN THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN
DEPENDING ON HOW RH VALUES RESPOND TO OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
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