907
FXUS63 KGLD 230935
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019
TODAY-TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAS VEGAS DURING THE DAY THEN INTO ARIZONA
DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. SOME
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OR SO
OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT BUT A RATHER DRY LAYER FROM
700-500MB SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING, WHICH IS
ALSO THE TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE MODELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 6F TO 9F AT 850MB SUPPORTING READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MENTIONED MONDAY DIVES SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LOWERING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO, LOW 50S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A
TROUGH ENTERING NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TO THE PLAINS DURING
THE DAY, AND THE ARIZONA CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
ON FRIDAY, THE CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS AN OPEN WAVE,
NEARING THE REGION AND GENERATING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. VARYING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAKE THE FORECAST
DIFFICULT AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THINGS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A
LARGE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE AMPLIFYING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN
PLACES THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THE
THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FALLING FROM
THE 80S ON THURSDAY TO THE 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN BACK
INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE WITHIN THE 40S TO LOW
60S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN
COLORADO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019
FOR KGLD AND KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS (KGLD) TO 25KTS OR SO
THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. FROM 20Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS
SLOWLY BACK TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS UNDER
12KTS. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
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