673
FXUS63 KGLD 100756
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY IN COLORADO.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND
- STRONG WINDS WITH AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT THURSDAY MAY
PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE MID
50S IN THE WESTERN CWA AND MAY STAY IN THE LOW 70 IN THE EASTERN CWA.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AS IT'S MOVING INTO THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36 MAY BRIEFLY
SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WINDS WILL WEAKEN,
AND THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
MIDDAY, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO THE MID
90S. THE NORTHERN CWA LOOKS TO TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES.
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S WILL ALLOW RH VALUES IN
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO BE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG WARNING TO BE ISSUED
FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES UNTIL 2Z. YUMA COUNTY MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, BUT WINDS AND RH VALUES ARE TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOW TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (20%)
BEING WELL AFTER SUNSET. IF WE DO GET ANY CONVECTION, IT LOOKS TO BE
ALONG OR EAST OF U.S. 83 AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS SO LOW THAT SPC HAS REMOVED THE
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A HIGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING IN AN EARLY
MORNING COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KTS
RANGE. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE ENTERING THE CWA AROUND 9Z, PEAK WINDS
OCCURRING AROUND 14-18Z, AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE TOPPING OUT AROUND 80, BUT
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CAA MOVES IN WITH THE FROPA, THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA COULD BE CAPPED IN THE LOW 70S.
THREAT WISE, THERE IS A 20-25% CHANCE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 50 KTS
WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A LOW BUT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR
BLOWING DUST. DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AS THE FROPA OCCURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WALL OF DUST IS LESS THAN 5%. AS WE GET CLOSER TO
NOON AND LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY IMPROVE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR PLUMES OF DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. AS IT STANDS THERE'S
ABOUT A 25% CHANCE VISIBILITY WILL DROP BELOW 1 MILE IN A PLUME OF
BLOWING DUST. THE DUST THREAT PEAKS AROUND 18Z AND SHOULD BE
EFFECTIVELY 0 BY 22Z. IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN A FEW HOURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL BLOWING DUST INCREASES RAPIDLY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A RETURNING RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. THE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE AND RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AS WE REACH OUR DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE ALLOWING GFDI VALUES TO CLIMB ABOVE 60 IN PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO PEAK IN THE 30-50 GFDI RANGE.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
INVERTED RIDGE PUSHES PAST THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
OVERNIGHT AND FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY, BROAD TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS
TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WIND
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE THE BIGGER STORY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A 25 KNOT JET IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE AND WEAKENING 700MB FLOW LIMITING THE STRONGER WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE AGAIN
FORECAST RESULTING IN LOWERING HUMIDITY INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO RESULTING IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN. THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE THAT DAY WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR IF WE
HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE NAM WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES
DRYLINE PLACEMENT KEEPS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE MOIST SECTOR. IF THIS
IS THE CASE THEN WE WILL AGAIN NEED TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.
SATURDAY, SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. THE DIFFERENCE IS AT
THE SURFACE AS A FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA CURRENTLY AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF HAS
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY VERSUS THE GFS WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SLOWER FRONT. IF THE GFS VERIFIES SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
A CONCERN WITH STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS IN PLACE ALONG WITH 2500
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS SUPPORTING SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. FUTURE SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS AND SEE IF GUIDANCE CAN AGREE ON A SOLUTION.
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK DOES APPEAR TO BE
COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT (WHENEVER THAT DOES PASS
THROUGH) WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 70S. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME QPF SIGNAL SEEN IN ENSEMBLES. IT IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO TELL FOR SURE IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL OR IF JUST NON IMPACTFUL RAIN WOULD OCCUR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. KMCK MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVE BY
THE AIRPORT BEFORE 9Z, WHICH COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR
BRIEFLY. WINDS AT KMCK WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP. KMCK AND
KGLD LOOK TO SEE LLWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 200 FEET AGL AROUND
40-45 KTS UNTIL ABOUT 10Z.
WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SHIFT WINDS TO BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY UP TO 30-35 KTS AT KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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