124  
FXUS63 KGLD 062309  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
509 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER A LIMITED PORTION OF THE AREA  
SUNDAY MORNING (A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE),  
MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.  
 
- MILD WEEKEND FORECAST WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AROUND 80  
AND WINDS BELOW 20 MPH.  
 
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARE FORECAST TO  
RETURN NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
 
TODAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THANKS TO AN  
850 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS FUNNELING SOME MORE MOISTURE  
INTO THE REGION. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE  
SURFACE AND HELP GET OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
AROUND 0Z, THERE IS A 5% CHANCE A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES  
ACROSS THE AREA, FORCING SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT STORMS TO FORM.  
NO SEVERE IMPACT ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS LOW CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
FOG AND STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT TO PARTS OF THE  
AREA. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF KS 27 WILL SEE THE  
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF DENSE FOG. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
TOMORROW, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE  
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. VORTICITY FROM THE NAM AND GFS STARTS UP  
AROUND 15 OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS COULD  
(10%) LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE IN OUR COLORADO COUNTIES THAT HAVE  
FOG OR STRATUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE  
MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE CWA AND CREATE BETTER CHANCES AT SHOWERS  
AND STORMS. IN THE AFTERNOON, STARTING AROUND 18Z, POPS WILL  
INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25, MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN PORTION  
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, CAMS ARE SHOWING A SCATTERED GROUPING OF  
STORMS FIRING OFF AROUND SHERMAN COUNTY AROUND 20Z. AS FAR AS  
SEVERE WEATHER GOES, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME 1 INCH HAIL, BUT  
WITH LESS THAN 40 KTS BEING FOUND IN THE COLUMN, SEVERE WINDS  
LOOK UNLIKELY. HAIL WOULD REASONABLY ONLY OCCUR IF ONE STORM IS  
ABLE TO DOMINATE AND NOT COMPETE WITH OTHER UPDRAFTS. THIS PUTS  
THE CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LESS THAN 10%. OVERNIGHT, THE  
VORTICITY WILL BECOME MORE BROAD, ALLOWING ADDITIONAL  
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE AREA THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
POPS WILL BE IN THE 15-25 RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF  
I-70. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH  
THE 850 MB LLJ SITTING AROUND 20-30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH, WE  
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS. IF THE HIGH TO  
THE EAST REMAINS CLOSER THAN MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING, A  
COUPLE 35-40 KTS GUSTS MAY OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THAT IS  
LESS THAN 15%. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO AROUND 60.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
 
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE A PATTERN THAT WE SAW A LOT OF THIS  
SUMMER. A RIDGE WILL BE SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT  
BASIN REGION AS A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO  
THE EAST AND ANOTHER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE  
RIDGE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CWA INTO TUESDAY.  
THE SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERN LOW WILL DETERMINE WHEN THE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BREAK APART.  
 
TUESDAY, AS THE NORTHWESTERN LOW BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE, THE LOW  
LOOKS TO SLOW TO A CRAWL OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HAVE  
POTENTIALLY FUJIWARA IF THE CENTER OF THE LOW SPLITS. THIS WILL  
BE THE PATTERN THAT DOMINATES THE LONG-TERM: 500 MB HIGH SHIFTS  
ITS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SLOW MOVING 500  
MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH THE 850 MB LEVEL SEEING A  
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY REGIONS AS WEAK LOWS EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY LLJ TO FUNNEL MID AND LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. DUE  
TO THE HEAT, MOISTURE, AND WEAK COLD FRONTS, THERE WILL BE A  
NEARLY DAILY 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE  
AREA. CURRENTLY, NO GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT  
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT  
STATIONARY. IF A STRONGER LOW AND COLD FRONT CAN EJECT OFF THE  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, ALL THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR  
SEVERE STORMS. THE NBM DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REFLECTING THE  
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WELL IN THIS SETUP. THIS MEANS THE POPS  
SHOWN IN THE LOCAL FORECASTS ON OUR WEB PAGE ARE LOWER THAN WHAT  
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS. OVERALL, FORECASTER  
CONFIDENCE IN: DAILY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS FORMING IS 20-30%;  
AT LEAST ONE DAY (TUES-FRI) SEEING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS IS  
70-75%; CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING AT LEAST ONE DAY  
TUESDAY- FRIDAY IS 10-15%.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES SEEING LOW 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES  
WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP US FAIRLY WARM.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
 
GLD: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP  
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES)  
SUNDAY MORNING.. AND THAT FOG/STRATUS COULD (PERHAPS) EXTEND  
EASTWARD TO THE GOODLAND TERMINAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, MAINLY  
~11-14Z (A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE). OTHERWISE, VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT ~8-12 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS A  
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.. FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~25 KNOTS ARE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING.. SHIFTING TO THE ESE  
OR SE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE TO 12-17  
KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.. FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20  
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHEN OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~25 KNOTS  
ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CA  
LONG TERM...CA  
AVIATION...VINCENT  
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