387
FXUS63 KGLD 152303
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SOUTHEAST OF NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS. LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
- 10-20% CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES. DENSE FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK AS WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
GET TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND MAY POSE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE
MOST LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO LEADING TO SOME TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IF THE LOW DOES SET UP A BIT FURTHER TO THE
EAST OVER OUR COLORADO COUNTIES THEN WINDS WOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS WELL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
SOME MEAGER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT WITH THE QUALITY OF THE
ADVECTION BUT IF HIGH ENOUGH DEW POINTS, CURRENTLY APPEARING TO BE
LOW 50S CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA THEN A FEW STORM, PERHAPS SEVERE, CAN
FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH THEN OUR SEVERE CHANCES ARE NON EXISTENT. LOW
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 15Z SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND BASED ON THE SPEED
SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN THE AREA OF CONCERN AROUND 20-21Z. SHOULD
STORMS FORM LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOLLOWED BY DAMAGING WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING IS AROUND
15-20% AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG WITH MUCAPE AND A 250MB JET INTERACTS
WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MUCAPE AXIS. AS THIS OCCURS AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. A
COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH HAIL TO NICKEL
SIZE AND WINDS TO 55 MPH BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. STILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SIGNAL FOR SOME FOG
FAVORING GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. NOT PLANNING
ON REMOVING FROM THE FORECAST FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT AT THIS TIME, AS
IF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DON'T FORM THE THREAT FOR FOG WOULD
INCREASE AGAIN.
TUESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST CONTINUE FOR THE REGION AS
A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES. WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY ARE FORECAST WITH LOW 90S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF MOISTURE
CAN REMAIN A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS BEING DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE.
THE ECMWF DOES DEPICT A SURFACE HIGH LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND HAS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD SHUNT THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR. IF THE GFS DOES IN
FACT VERIFY THEN WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST DUE TO A TIGHTER GRADIENT DUE TO THE TROUGH. THIS
WOULD THEN LEAD TO A COUPLE HOURS OF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER FAVORING NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF YUMA COUNTY. THE DURATION
AND COVERAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO NOT BE OPTIMAL
FOR THE NEED OF A RED FLAG WARNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO SEE A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO SEND A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS WOULD SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AS
PRESSURE RISES AROUND 5-6MB OVER 3 HOURS ENSUES WITH THE COLD
FRONT. BASED ON CURRENT WIND FIELDS IN SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT THINK THEY WOULD BE MORE SPORADIC IN NATURE
GIVEN THE TIME OF THE DAY. MOST LIKELY GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH AND
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY. GUIDANCE HAS
ACTUALLY SPED UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WHICH HAS KNOCKED
DOWN THE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE NORTH AND THE
UPPER 90S TO THE SOUTH. 850MB WIND FIELD ACCORDING TO ALL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LOOK THE STRONGEST THROUGH 18Z OR SO BEFORE WANING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON; THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHO STILL REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z OR SO.
ONTO THE FIRE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SETUP, WITH NEWEST DATA THE THREAT
DOESN'T SEEM TO BE SO OMINOUS AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE QUICKER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MIXING DEW POINTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 30MB AGL IN
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH CORRELATES VERY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST DEW POINTS SO NOT PLANNING ANY TWEAKS WITH THAT. THE
BIGGEST CONCERN WHEN IT COMES TO FIRE WEATHER IS HOW WARM WILL
THE TEMPERATURES GET. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE HAVE COME DOWN DUE TO THE QUICKER FROPA WHICH AS A RETURN
HAS BROUGHT HUMIDITY VALUES UP SOME AS WELL. GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE AN AREA OF DRIER IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
MOISTURE ADVECTION WHERE MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WOULD BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A CAVEAT TO THIS IS IF THE INCREASE IN
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER AND MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT LEADING TO A LONGER DURATION OF
ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
A 2ND AND POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH STRONGER PRESSURE RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IF THAT WERE TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKER THEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD FURTHER INCREASE FIRE CONCERNS. CURRENT
TIMING HAS IT MOVING THROUGH AROUND 03Z HOWEVER. SOME PATCHY DUST
WITH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING FRONT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z BUT
CURRENTLY THINK IT WOULD VERY LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO HIGHWAY
40 ON SOUTH BEFORE MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE AND THE WIND WANES
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 2ND FRONT HAS MY ATTENTION AS AN INCREASE
IN SPEED WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBLY A WALL OF DUST WITH HOW STRONG
THE PRESSURE RISES ARE AND THE FACT THAT THE TOP SOIL WOULD BE
EVEN MORE PRIMED FROM THE MORNING FRONT DUE TO THE WIND AND
BEING IN THE 90S ALL DAY. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY ON THE LOWER
SIDE WITH THE WALL OF DUST AND IT WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO TAKE AN
EARLIER PASSAGE WITH IT BUT IS SOMETHING KEEP AN EYE ON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY, A SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TOP BE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH IN WAKE OF THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT. WINDS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT ARE FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY. A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY PRESENT ITSELF INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING
BEGINS TO PRESENT ITSELF. THE DAY OF INTEREST CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE SATURDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS COLORADO
FURTHER PROVIDING LIFT. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SEEN
ON GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN 850MB WIND FIELD AROUND
20-30 KNOTS IN PLACE. SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THIS TO MORE OF A
HIGHER SUSTAINED WIND WITH THE 700MB WIND FIELD BEING AROUND THE
SAME IF NOT ACTUALLY WEAKER. FIRE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS A CONCERN AS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS
FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S BEFORE WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH RETURNS. THE
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP LOOKS TO DICTATE
HOW IT WILL GET AS THE GFS HAS THE HIGH SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD MITIGATE HOW WARM IT COULD GET
VERSUS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS IT DISPLACED VERSUS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF. DURING THE NIGHT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
VARIABLE FOR KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL 4Z OR SO. ONCE THE WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY CONSISTENTLY, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN. AM NOT
EXPECTING THE STORM ACTIVITY TO BE NEAR EITHER SITE THIS
EVENING; SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 406 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
A SIGNAL FOR MID JUNE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS STARTING AS
EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SURFACE TROUGH NUDGING INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING IN DRIER AIR
AND ALSO INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 25-35 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 22Z TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN MEETING THE DURATION
OF 3 OR MORE HOURS FOR THE NEED OF A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT AT
THIS TIME. WINDS ARE HOWEVER FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AND RH DOESN'T RISE ABOVE
35% RESULTING IN MINIMAL RECOVERY. THE PEAK OF THE WINDS LOOKS
TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND LAST
THROUGH AROUND 18-21Z OR SO BEFORE WANING SOME. WE DO GET SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH DOES LOOK TO KEEP
RH IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER. THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR FIRE
WEATHER AS IT COULD BE MORE OF A "MARGINAL" EVENT THAN WHAT WAS
SEEN BEFORE. CONTEMPLATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BUT WANTED TO
HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE RUN TO ENSURE THE FRONT DOESN'T SPEED
UP MORE AND FURTHER ELIMINATE THE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS AM STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA.
WITH THE RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS PART OF THE AREA
HAS GREENED UP ENOUGH PER FUELS PARTNERS. DUNDY THROUGH RED
WILLOW ALONG WITH DECATUR, SHERIDAN, GOVE, NORTON AND GRAHAM
HAVE ALL BEEN DEEMED "GREEN" BY PARTNERS. ELSEWHERE THE CONCERN
FOR FIRE SPREAD STILL REMAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE LONGER DURATION
FUELS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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