793
FXUS63 KGLD 160620
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
KANSAS.
- HOTTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2026
THE SHORT-TERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE SAME AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH IS SEATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, ALLOWING
THE BLOCKING SETUP TO PERSIST. DOWN AT 850 MB, THE DOMINANT FEATURE
IS A HIGH OVER THE GULF, PUSHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AIR INTO THE
CWA. THESE FEATURES WILL WORK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO LARGELY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. IN THE WESTERN CWA, LOWS WILL
COOL TO AROUND 60, BUT THE EASTERN CWA LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 70.
THERE WILL BE A LOW AND SLOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL OF PATCHY,
NUISANCE FOG AROUND SUNRISE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP
TO BELOW A MILE IN THE PATCHY FOG, BUT PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO SINGLE OUT ANY LOCATION.
AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IF THIS CONVECTION IS ABLE
TO OCCUR, WE COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE
STORM COLLAPSES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING IS LESS
THAN 15% EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD. AS SUCH HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 95F ARE ABOVE 70%
FOR BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
THE ENSEMBLE DATA IS AROUND FIVE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY, INCREASING TO
10 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MONDAY THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PROBABILITIES
FOR HIGHS ABOVE 95F FALL TO 60% OR LESS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. THE SPREAD IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINS AROUND 10 DEGREES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ALMOST NONEXISTENT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
MORE SOUTHWARD, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 20KTS.
HOWEVER STORM MOTION WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS, SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION WITH GUSTS THURSDAY RETURNING TO THE 20-25 KTS RANGE. LLWS
IS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN THE STRONGER GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. IF LLWS OCCURS IT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 25-35 KTS
AROUND 400 FEET AGL. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 400 FEET, DIFFUSING THE
SHEAR TO BE UNDER LLWS CRITERIA.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA
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