647
FXUS63 KGLD 180630
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1230 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, ARE FORECAST TODAY.
WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING DUST REDUCING AIR QUALITY AND
VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY HARVESTED FIELDS.
- A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO,
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR, AND RAWLINS
COUNTY IN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS DUST MAY
OCCUR MONDAY.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING (OCT
21).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025
CURRENTLY, A LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH HAS
DRAPED A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS LEADING
TO SOME VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. WE HAVE A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE CWA JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
THIS MORNING, PRETTY MUCH AS SOON AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BURNS
OFF, WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS AS PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 1-1.5 MB/HOUR WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CWA WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN
THE 30-40 KTS MARK, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS
WILL OCCUR. PEAK WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 17-22Z TODAY AND WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY KICK UP SOME PATCHY BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE AREA AND IMPACT AIR QUALITY, WORST NEAR NON-
COVERED FIELDS. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES, BUT MAY
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO UNDER A MILE. OVERALL, THE BLOWING DUST
THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT IT WAS EARLIER THIS MONTH AS
RECENT MOISTURE AND LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES HELP TO LIMIT THE
BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL.
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, THERE WILL BE AMPLE 500 MB
VORTICITY, BUT FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA, WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY COLLECT, WE COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS BETWEEN 15-00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN YUMA COUNTY TO UPPER 60S IN GOVE COUNTY.
TONIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTED AN 850 MB HIGH TO MOVE INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS FAIRLY WEAK AND KEEP
THE SKY CLEAR. WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO START DROPPING
TO AROUND FREEZING, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AREAS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 33-36 DEGREES,
PROMPTING A FROST ADVISORY.
IT'S WORTH NOTING, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HEFTY IMPACT
ON THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE HIGH STAYS ON ITS CURRENT PATH,
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S. THERE IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER
NORTH AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA'S WINDS REMAIN CALM FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO UNDER FREEZING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM
MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT OF A
WARMUP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME IS QUITE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY FORECAST ON SATURDAY AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS HAS 55-60 KNOT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE NUDGED WINDS UP IN THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL, ASSUMING THESE WINDS
HOLD MAY ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY, DUE TO STRONGER WIND FIELD AND HAVING MULTIPLE
DAYS OF FURTHER DRYING OF THE TOP SOILS. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER AS WELL AS ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN WHICH AT THIS
TIME LOOKS TO BE A BIT BROADER. AT THIS TIME ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE
WILL BE ON THE TABLE AS WELL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE AS WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FROST
INTO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THE SUNDAY MORNING FREEZE
PLAYS OUT AS THE GROWING SEASON MAY COME TO AND END FOR SOME.
MIDWEEK ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THIS TO BE MORE COMPACT. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE AREA'S NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE
FINAL PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DROPS TO FAR SOUTH THEN THE
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY. KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE WORST OF
THE WIND WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE MID-
DAY AND AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH A FEW RANDOM GUSTS UP TO 45-50 KTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. KMCK WILL BE SLIGHTLY CALMER WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 35-40 KTS AND ONE OR TWO 45 KTS BEING
FORECAST. BOTH LOCATIONS WILL BE AT RISK FOR SOME LIGHT BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF FIELDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ARE BARREN.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY SLOW AROUND SUNSET.
KMCK WILL HAVE A 10-15% CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS AROUND
15-00Z AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT COULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
MDT /11 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-027-041.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
KSZ003-004-014>016-028-029-042.
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
MDT /11 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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