367
FXUS63 KGLD 101129
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MAY ALSO OCCUR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS
HAS KEPT WINDS ON THE BREEZIER SIDE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES LESS DEEP AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
INFLUENCES THE AREA. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNRISE WITH THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING FURTHER
EAST. THAT BEING SAID, CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN MOISTURE WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL. THIS
SHOULD SOCK THE AREA UNDERNEATH LOW CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS AND CLOUD COVER
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, TODAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND MAYBE LOW 50S. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
IS UNLIKELY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH AND LACK OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
TONIGHT, THE CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE SHOULD SHIFT THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS IT
DOES SO, THE AREA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP, FAVORING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40 AND THEN EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO PUSHING DRIER AIR IN
AND BEGIN TO REMOVE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. BEFORE THAT THOUGH, LOCALES IN NW KANSAS AND MAYBE SW
NEBRASKA SHOULD BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE WINDS DON'T GET TOO
STRONG AND KEEP THINGS MIXED. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
40S.
SATURDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MOST
OF THE AIR COLUMN. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AND LEAD TO A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVES IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN THE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASE BOTH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HEIGHT GRADIENT. WITH THIS, WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 15-30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH.
THANKFULLY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 20%, BUT BE
AWARE THAT THERE WILL BE HIGH FIRE DANGER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE LOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW EAST, DRAGGING A CONVERGENCE ZONE
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH MUCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG, LARGE HAIL
MAY BE ABLE TO FORM WITH STORMS. THAT BEING SAID, CHANCES FOR LARGE
HAIL ARE CURRENTLY LOW WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5
C/KM AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS DUE TO NEARLY UNIFORM WIND
DIRECTION. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS AROUND 45 KTS. IF STORMS FORM, THEY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH AS A LINE OR BROKEN CLUSTER FROM WEST TO EAST. SIMILAR
TO RECENT EVENTS, IT MAY BECOME TOO DRY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE EAST. ONCE THE STORMS PASS, WINDS SHOULD
LIGHTEN TO AROUND 10 MPH, SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR, AND LOWS DROP
TO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES APPEARS FAVORED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
WARMER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-70S TO MID-80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A MIXED
MODE OF WEATHER TYPES CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYLINE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
COULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE
DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WOULD FAVOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND BACK INTO MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT 850-MB IS FAVORED, WHICH WOULD ESTABLISH APPROXIMATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, AND THUS,
FAVOR THE MODE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID-TEENS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HAZARD LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
PERHAPS FAR WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30
MPH RANGE POSSIBLE, WHILE A BROADER REGION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY, WITH GUSTS
FORECAST IN THE 25-45 MPH RANGE. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVER A 50%
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED IS CURRENTLY HIGHEST ON MONDAY, AT AROUND 20%.
TROUGHING FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO MOVE OVERHEAD SOMETIME TUESDAY,
THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR
TROUGHING TO THE WEST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
ABOUT A THIRD OF GEFS AND EC MEMBERS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH ALREADY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WOULD CORRESPOND TO A
QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA, AS CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES RH VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER-TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A QUICKER PROGRESSION WOULD FAVOR A COLD FRONT
TRAVERSING THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY TO MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH COULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LREF
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE ABOUT A 20-25% CHANCE FOR RH VALUES TO MEET
CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE CONCERN FOR THE HAZARD. STILL,
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 30 MPH IN THIS ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING
BEING NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON SITS AROUND 5%.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH
ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MAY ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WARMER CONDITIONS MAY BE ALLOWED TO RETURN WITH THIS
PATTERN, AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID-70S WEDNESDAY, AND
MID-70S TO LOWER-80S THURSDAY. MIXED MODES OF WET AND DRY
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LREF GUIDANCE GIVES AROUND A 25% CHANCE FOR DEW POINTS
TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES IN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH COULD INDICATE
A SMALL CHANCE FOR WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER,
FIRE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED MODE BOTH DAYS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
FOR KGLD... CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000FT ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT THE CEILINGS COULD LOWER BELOW
1000FT. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
ABOVE 3000FT, THOUGH IT MAKE TAKE UNTIL 21Z. TONIGHT, THE LOWER
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AND LOWER WELL BELOW 1000FT.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND
200-300FT. IF THE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KTS, DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
FOR KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS,
BUT BE WARY OF SOME CEILINGS AROUND 2000FT TRYING TO MOVE IN
DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS. AFTER 00Z, CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY TO 1000FT AND THEN TO 200-300FT. FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY BE DENSE WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 1/4 TO
1/2 OF A MILE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THE FOG TO FORM
AROUND 04-06Z, BUT IT MAY NOT FORM UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KAK
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