380
FXUS63 KGLD 221704
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1104 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON: MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LIFTS NE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS TO END FROM WEST-TO-EAST AFTER SUNRISE
(~12-14Z) THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A CLEARING TREND DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60'S.
THIS EVENING: ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (LOCATED OVER
EASTERN WA AND NORTHERN ID AT 09Z THIS MORNING) WILL DIG SSE
TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON, TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES (THIS EVENING) AND LIFT NE-NNE ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (TONIGHT). IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY EVENING
AND THIS MORNING, A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL [1] PRECLUDE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GOODLAND CWA AND [2] BE HARD-
PRESSED TO MAINTAIN/SUPPORT ANY UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT (IMMEDIATE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES, PALMER DIVIDE) THAT MAY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST DURING THE EVENING.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY: YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 09Z THIS MORNING) WILL DIG SSE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT THEN TRACK EAST ALONG/NEAR
THE KS-NE BORDER ON SAT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (TX-OK) TONIGHT WILL ALTER
THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT PATTERN TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT, SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW / LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE DELAYED
UNTIL SAT EVE-NIGHT. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WOULD BE LESS-SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF FOCUSED UPPER LEVEL FORCING WERE
PRESENT, E.G. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER DURING THE LATE
AFT-EVE, LESS-SUPPORTIVE COULD BE SUFFICIENT-ENOUGH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
***SYNOPSIS***
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
REGION SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS FAVORED TO ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THIS RETURN
FEATURE MAY LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS GEFS
AND EC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH TROUGHING
TO THE WEST BEGINNING SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TO TRAVERSE
THE AREA. GEFS GUIDANCE IS MORE IN FAVOR WITH THIS SOLUTION THAN
THE EC, AS THE GEFS PUSHES THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES MOVES EASTWARD FASTER. THIS MAY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE FORECAST REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY.
***DISCUSSION***
THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW APPEARS TO FAVOR WARM AND MOIST
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS LOOK TO CENTER
THEMSELVES IN THE 70S AND 80S. LREF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT
DEW POINTS ARE FAVORED IN THE 40S AND 50S. TROUGHING SETTING UP
TO THE WEST MAY SUPPORT MULTIPLE DAYS OF PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CAN EJECT
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
ON SUNDAY-THURSDAY HAVING POTENTIAL FOR OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE
(A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY). THIS COULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. HOWEVER, LREF MEAN 500-MB
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN 25 KTS, WHICH
WOULD INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL AT BEST FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHERE THERE ARE WIDE ZONES OF 30-45% CHANCES OF
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST REGION, ENHANCING HOW MANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. EVEN SO, THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE STORMS TRACK. LIGHT SHOWERS TO WEAK THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME FOR THE LONG TERM.
ONE FINAL POINT TO ADD IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER APPEARS TO
BE A MINIMAL THREAT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ON
TUESDAY, NOT BECAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LOW, BUT
BECAUSE WIND GUSTS MAY REACH THE 40-45 MPH RANGE. IF THIS
OCCURS, EXISTING FIRES MAY BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING RAPIDLY.
OTHERWISE, HAZARDS LOOK TO BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME WANING BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z. WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR GLD, BUT DRIER
AIR TOWARDS THE SURFACE BRINGS SOME CONCERNS IF IT WILL REACH
THE GROUND OR NOT SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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