561
FXUS63 KGLD 241142
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN (70-90%) IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID- MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
(40-70%).
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
A WETTER PATTERN HAS SET-UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE ROUNDS
IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO AND INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD PER LATEST
MODEL RUNS.
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
UP ACROSS COLORADO AS IT RIDES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION WITH RIDGE
AXIS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS BEEN STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF, AND WITH THE ADDITION OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA, HAS MADE THIS
AIRMASS AN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THAT
MOST AREAS IN THE CWA HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A 0.10" OF
RAINFALL. HEAVIER SWATHS OF 0.25" TO 0.5" WERE COMMON FROM
GREELEY TO DECATUR COUNTY AND CWA COUNTIES EAST. GREELEY,
WICHITA, AND LOGAN SHOWED A FEW MORE LOCALIZED SWATHS OF UP TO
1.75" WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS TRAINED OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MAY SEE LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT EXPECT SOME
BREAKS AND CLEARING BEFORE A SECOND TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND ROUND HAS BEEN TRENDED
TOWARD MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SO MAIN CONCERNS HAVE SHIFTED TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND TRACK OVER WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
SWATHS HAVE SATURATED THE SOILS. ANOTHER WEAK THROUGH MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
SATURDAY MORNING, A WEAK 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE OVER THE FORECAST
REGION. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE
TROUGHING OVERHEAD AND WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE DUE TO
WEAKER SURFACE WINDS ALONGSIDE CLEARING OF CLOUDCOVER, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW SOLAR HEATING TO DOMINATE AS THE PRIMARY HEATING MECHANISM FOR
THE DAY. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY LREF GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS A
60% CHANCE OR HIGHER FOR LESS THAN 10% CLOUDCOVER ALONG AND WEST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 83. IN ADDITION, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50% CHANCE OR
GREATER THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST REGION. EVEN NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA) EXCEPT ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 283 WHERE LINGERING CLOUDCOVER MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 1
IN 3 CHANCE OR LESS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 25 MPH ACROSS MOST
OF THIS AREA, WHICH LEAVES CONFIDENCE IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OCCURRING LESS THAN 5%.
RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THIS WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, AS NBM PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE REMAINS BELOW
A 10% PROBABILITY FOR ALL AREAS THAT GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL OCCUR.
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVERHEAD SOMETIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A SURFACE LOW AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH THE AID OF SUFFICIENT UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY AS THE SURFACE LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT HOURS MONDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST AREAS
HAVE AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY. AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TRENTON, NE TO HILL CITY, KS HAVE AS HIGH AS A 75% CHANCE FOR
THE SAME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83 WHERE
LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS BETWEEN A 1 IN 2 AND 1 IN 3 CHANCE THAT SURFACE
CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) WILL BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
THE SAME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50% CHANCE THAT SFC-
500MB WIND SHEAR WILL EXCEED 30 KNOTS, WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE IF THEY DEVELOP. HIGH WINDS WOULD BE
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS, AS GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, CAPE AND WIND SHEAR SEEM LIKE THEY WOULD BE A BIT LOW
FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES TO OCCUR WITH STORMS. AS SUCH, A
REASONABLE FORECAST WOULD BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO HAVING A CHANCE TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY IS AROUND 5%.
FORECAST GUIDANCE BECOMES A LOT MORE UNCERTAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN SUPPORT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVERHEAD INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BECOMING LESS CERTAIN ON HOW QUICKLY THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. LREF GUIDANCE
DOESN'T SEEM TO FAVOR THE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHEN ABOUT 55-60% OF THE MEMBERS SHOW 500-MB
HEIGHTS ABOVE 576 DAM (5760 METERS). HOWEVER, EVEN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, 30% OF THE MEMBERS STILL SHOW THE TROUGH IN THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY WOULD DEPEND ON WHETHER THE TROUGH IS STILL IN THE AREA OR
NOT. IF THE FEATURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 80S.
OTHERWISE, COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
GLD: LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3SM AND 6SM
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18Z WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED T-STORMS AND
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z. LOW CEILINGS MAY SCATTER OUT SOME BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SSE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MCK: LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS THROUGH 12-15Z WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER SSE FLOW ABOVE 2000 FT.
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS WILL DECREASE AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE AS HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH, HOWEVER, VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO 2-3SM WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR T-STORM PASSING THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 16-18Z AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PIETRYCHA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...PIETRYCHA
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