400  
FXUS63 KGLD 161738  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1138 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STORM REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT  
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS WANING.  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND, INCLUDING TEMPERATURE NEAR 105, WHICH COULD  
BREAK RECORDS.  
 
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2025  
 
STORMS ARE AGAIN STRUGGLING THIS EVENING AS THEY MAY HAVE BEEN  
UNDERCUT FROM OUTFLOW FROM AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS  
WESTERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL CELLS TRYING TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW FROM  
THE DECAYING CLUSTER. THIS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET  
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 305K LEVEL THROUGH 09Z DOES CONTINUE TO  
MAKE ME THINK THAT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY  
IS A POSSIBILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN 15-24% MENTION OF STORMS IN  
THE FORECAST. SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP A RISK FOR HAIL AND STRONG  
TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN  
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. IF  
SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR THEN SOME FOG OR  
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25; NOT THINKING  
DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME BUT THINK SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF  
3-6SM MAY BE POSSIBLE.  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO MONDAY AS WE HAVE ANOTHER  
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME FORCING  
FOR THE DAY APPEARS A LITTLE GREATER. A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING  
THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORMS TO  
DEVELOP IN THE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS NORTH OF  
INTERSTATE 70. A DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS  
TAKE SHAPE, THIS WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT  
WILL BE. ANY STORM THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THAT  
TIMEFRAME WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN  
4000-4500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND SURFACE CAPE OF THE SAME. LAPSE  
RATES WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE AS WELL AROUND 9 C/KM. WIND SHEAR  
OF 20- 25 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION BUT DO  
THINK THAT SPLITTING OF STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD A CLUSTER  
LEADING TO MORE OF A WIND AND FLOODING THREAT. IF WE CAN MANAGE  
TO GET A RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL THE STORM WOULD REMAIN  
STATIONARY ALSO LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS AS PWATS  
REMAIN AROUND 1.25 INCHES. GIVEN WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE  
90S AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES A LANDSPOUT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY  
RULED OUT AS STORMS FORM ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE. A 2ND  
ROUND OF STORMS OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK IN THE REALM OF  
REALITY AS A 700MB JET INCREASES WITH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WHICH PROMOTES LIFT,  
THIS IS ALSO AS ANOTHER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING  
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MOVES INTO THE AREA. SEVERE  
WEATHER WOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY AS  
WELL GIVEN 4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND INCREASED SHEAR DUE TO THE  
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE AGAIN  
POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY AS WELL. ANY LOCATION THAT SEES  
RAINFALL FROM THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS MAY ALSO SEE SOME FLOODING  
RISK BUT THE OVERNIGHT ROUND SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO  
SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE FLOODING RISK SOME. A CAVEAT TO  
EVERYTHING HOWEVER IS THAT GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A HANDFUL OF  
"DRY" SOLUTIONS SO THERE IS POTENTIAL AGAIN THAT STORMS EITHER  
NOT INITIATE OR STAY OUT OF THE AREA ALTOGETHER, SIMILAR TO  
WHAT HAS OCCURRED THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT  
TRICKY AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RUN AT THE TRIPLE DIGITS; I'M  
NOT FULLY BUYING THAT AS THE AIR MASS IS STILL FORECAST TO BE  
HUMID. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM UP TO AROUND THE TRIPLE  
DIGITS THEN WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2025  
 
THE LONG-TERM WILL SEE A MASSIVE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN FROM WHAT  
WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE HIGH PLAINS,  
CAUSING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS  
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT- TERM, THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS AND  
STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE MID- MORNING TUESDAY. THESE WOULD BE  
FORCED BY WIDESPREAD VORTICITY SPREADING FROM THE SHORTWAVE OF  
MONDAY EVENING'S STORMS TO THE MAIN TROUGH COMING IN TUESDAY  
EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY ABOUT  
30% CONFIDENCE THEY WILL OCCUR, WOULD STUNT WARMING DURING THE  
DAY AND LIMIT INSTABILITY, WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE TUESDAY  
EVENING STORMS. HOW MUCH OF AM IMPACT IT WILL HAVE IS A MAJOR  
UNKNOWN. THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS LOOK TO ENTER THE CWA'S WEST  
SIDE AROUND 21-23Z AND FAIRLY QUICKLY FORM INTO A QLCS THAT  
COULD SPAN THE ENTIRE CWA. ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH  
THIS LINE OF STORMS.  
 
ONCE THIS TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL  
QUICKLY EXTENT NORTH AND BLOCK THE CWA FROM MUCH ACTIVE WEATHER.  
THIS HIGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. DURING  
THIS TIME, WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD  
HIGHS BY FRIDAY, AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL  
INCREASE OUR RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER  
SECTION BELOW.  
 
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC-NH ARE ALL SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE LOW  
COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CREATING A LARGE,  
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM THAT WOULD LIKELY BE OUR NEXT MAJOR  
CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER. CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE ALL AGREEING  
THAT THE FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND 0Z MONDAY, BUT THIS  
COULD EASILY SHIFT 24 HOURS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2025  
 
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS.  
AROUND 00Z, SOME CONVECTION COULD BEGIN TO FIRE UP IN THE VICINITY  
OF WEAK MESOLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYLINE AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
OVERALL, CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE LOW AT AROUND 30 PERCENT, BUT THE  
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT BOTH TERMINALS  
FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND IFR VISIBILITIES  
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IF A THUNDERSTORM PASSES NEAR OR OVER  
ONE OF THE TERMINALS. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 06Z.  
ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOWER  
CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-3000FT CLOSER TO THE END OF THE PERIOD AROUND  
10-15Z.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...GLD  
LONG TERM...GLD  
AVIATION...DDC  
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