206  
FXUS63 KGLD 072055  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
255 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
TONIGHT...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE PER 700-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
REACHES OUR FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
EARLY EVENING POSSIBLY CROSSING INTO ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST  
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SHORTLY AFTER DARK. THE PRIMARY  
HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND CLOUD  
TO GROUND LIGHTNING THAT MAY SPARK GRASS FIRES. LINGERING CLOUDS  
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S  
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.  
 
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN  
1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON  
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING AROUND OR  
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
MID 90S TO AROUND 102. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 ARE EXPECTED  
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN TO COLBY AND GOVE. IF  
TRENDS CONTINUE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR NORTON AND  
GRAHAM COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE  
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO, LOW TO UPPER 60S  
ELSEWHERE. AN ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A POTENTIAL MCS MOVING  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG  
EASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MUCH  
OF OUR AREA.  
 
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...I'M NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD. THE NAM MAY HAVE THE RIGHT  
IDEA WITH REGARDS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHTS MCS AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON  
OUR AREA OF GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF  
ARE SHOWING A BIT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM  
THE WEST DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. GIVEN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL NOT  
CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL ALSO  
DEPEND ON IF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MCS COOLER  
OUTFLOW LINGERS LONGER THEN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. NAM IS THE  
COOLEST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHILE THE NBM  
IS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN JUST A TAD BUT STILL IN  
THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
FRIDAY...THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NEAR  
600DAM UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT  
A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW  
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH WITH THE AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS  
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE MODELS SEEM IN AGREEMENT  
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHWEST.  
STARTING LATE MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL  
CANADA, SUPPRESSING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AND GENERATING  
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AND NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
DUE TO THE PATTERN WE ARE IN, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE  
HOT AND DRY WITH A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE LEVEL WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING  
BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARDS THE  
NORTHEAST THEN EAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS  
TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS SEEM IN  
DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR WEST THE STORMS WILL OCCUR. IF ANY STORMS  
DO MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA, THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
WOULD BE IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THE POPS  
ARE BEING KEPT LOW FOR NOW AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT  
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING BEYOND THE EASTERN  
EDGE OF THE CWA.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL RESUME HOT AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE  
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY EVENING, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE  
SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 100S ON SATURDAY, MONDAY,  
AND TUESDAY. LOWS EACH DAY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW  
70S. DUE TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING NEAR AND BELOW 20% WEST OF HIGHWAY  
27 THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECASTED WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN BELOW THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA OF 25 KTS.  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS COULD GUST CLOSE TO THE 25 KTS  
THRESHOLD FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES  
IN COLORADO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS  
GUSTING TO 35KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z  
TONIGHT THEN HOVERING IN THE 10-13KT RANGE TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY  
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 13KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED  
IN THE MORNING THEN FALLING TO AROUND 6KTS OR SO BY THE END OF THE  
PERIOD. CURRENTLY AM EXPECTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY  
BE NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL AROUND 03Z OR SO PLUS OR MINUS AN  
HOUR OR TWO, WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO  
AND SEE IF IT SURVIVES WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. FOR  
NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.  
 
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-  
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE  
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT THEN HOVERING AROUND 10KTS TIL SUNRISE WHEN  
WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5KTS. FOR WEDNESDAY SOUTH WINDS AROUND  
11KTS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.  
 
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM...KMK  
AVIATION...99  
 
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