580  
FXUS63 KGLD 061906  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
106 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
- FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING. IF CLOUD COVER THINS-OUT AND FOG DOES NOT  
DEVELOP, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST MAY EXIST OVER NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
- WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY  
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
- NEXT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE TO FILTER  
INTO THE AREA. THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL ALTHOUGH  
SOME BREAKS ARE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SOME DRIER  
MID LEVEL AIR RESIDES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY REMAIN  
FORECAST IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUD COVER CAN  
REMAIN THICK ENOUGH THEN SOME SPOTTY LOCALES MAY NOT EVEN HIT 50  
DEGREES. HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY  
OF THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS SOME WEAK OMEGA REMAINS  
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 850-800MB RANGE; WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH  
WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW AND WHAT HOURLY RAP13 GUIDANCE IS  
DEPICTING THE CURRENT OMEGA TO BE. OVERNIGHT A WEAK 500MB  
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SW KANSAS WHICH MAY LEAD TO  
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
HIGHWAY 40. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH  
THIS WAVE HOWEVER SO HAVE NUDGED RAINFALL CHANCES DOWN SOME.  
ALSO AM NOTICING SOME CONTINUATION OF WEAK SURFACE OMEGA AS WELL  
BEFORE 09Z SO HAVE DRIZZLE MENTION CONTINUING BUT 12Z RAP  
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS SATURATED IN THE PROFILE AS THEY ARE AS OF  
RIGHT NOW WHICH LEADS TO ME THINK IT MAY BE A BIT MORE SPOTTY  
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.  
 
A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH  
LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG  
POTENTIAL AS 15Z RAP SOUNDINGS AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHEAST  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF FOG DOESN'T DEVELOP THEN SOME PATCHY FROST  
MAY DEVELOP. FURTHER TO THE WEST MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHWAY  
27 CORRIDOR FROM DUNDY DOWN TOWARDS GREELEY COUNTY, WINDS HAVE BEEN  
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH IS  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR FOG. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING  
MORE TOWARDS CLOUD COVER BREAKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR THEN STRONG RADIATIONAL  
COOLING POTENTIAL WOULD ENSUE AS DEW POINTS MAY FALL AS LOW AS  
THE MID 30S. SOME PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR AS WELL IF THIS WOULD  
BE THE CASE FAVORING MAINLY RIVER VALLEYS. DUE TO THE  
CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS AND THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY IT WOULD  
AFFECT A LARGE AREA OF A COUNTY WILL FOREGO ANY FROST  
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.  
 
TUESDAY, ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH INFLUENCES OF THE  
SURFACE HIGH REMAINING ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO TREND TOWARDS STRATUS  
CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL AGAIN IMPACT TEMPERATURES SO HAVE  
BEGUN A LOWERING TRENDS; HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE  
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.  
THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE AREA DOES LOOK TO LEAD TO CONTINUED  
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE EAST AS  
THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. A WEAK WAVE OFF OF THE  
ROCKIES DURING THE EVENING MAY LEAD TO 15-20% CHANCE OF  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 70. TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WINDS WILL START  
TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY HOWEVER EASTERN AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO  
KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THE  
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG AGAIN TO DEVELOP; PERHAPS EVEN DENSE  
FOG WITH A HIGH MIXING RATIO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND  
1KM AGL. WILL PRECLUDE FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR  
NOW TO ASSURE CONSISTENCY WITH GUIDANCE DUE TO SUCH SUBTLE WIND  
DIFFERENCE .  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SEES SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S CURRENTLY. THE RIDGE IS  
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 80S RETURNING FOR  
HIGHS. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY AS A SURFACE  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA GUSTING 30-35 MPH. WE ARE FORECAST TO  
GET A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES  
WELL ABOVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER. HUMIDITY VALUES ON  
THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH  
ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT DUE TO THE FACT WE ARE  
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BEHIND THE TROUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
REMAIN AT BAY TO PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR  
DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FORECAST ON SATURDAY.  
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY  
SATURDAY POSSIBLY GUSTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S VIA A  
STRENGTHENING 850 AND 700MB JET IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING  
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS  
THAT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST  
WEEKEND; EVEN WITH DEEP MIXING PERHAPS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR  
RAINFALL SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME. IT IS WORTH  
NOTING THAT THE 12Z GFS INDICATES A STRONG 850MB JET WITH THE  
FRONT AND HAS BEEN SPEEDING UP AND STRENGTHENING FROM PREVIOUS  
RUNS. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT THEN GUSTY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY  
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AN INTERESTING FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE  
ON OVER THE COMING DAYS TO SEE IF THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
STRATUS AND A COMBINATION OF FOG/DRIZZLE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA  
RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. ANTICIPATING SOME TEMPORARY  
IMPROVEMENTS (IFR TO MVFR FOR GLD AND MVFR TO VFR FOR MCK) AS  
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.  
DRIZZLE/FOG IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR GLD SO WILL CONTINUE THE  
4SM TEMPO AS WELL FOR THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR VFR CEILINGS RETURNING STARTING AROUND 01Z ALTHOUGH THERE  
COULD STILL BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING HOWEVER.  
TOWARDS THE MORNING, WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP FAVORING MCK AT THIS TIME. THIS  
THREAT SEEMS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS DON'T HAVE MUCH SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL NOT  
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN UPCOMING  
TAF ISSUANCES.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TRIGG  
LONG TERM...TRIGG  
AVIATION...TRIGG  
 
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