008
FXUS63 KGLD 061638
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS
FAR WESTERN KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTY AND NORTHERN DUNDY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
- WARMING BACK INTO 100S OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO BE CANCELED A LITTLE EARLY. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA, BUT
WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 104 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SEEN WITHIN THE FLOW. THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING 700MB JET IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO SOME SHOWER AND STORMS
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS THAN LAST
NIGHT. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER AROUND 6.5-7.0 C/KM,
MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS WHICH
COULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL SET
UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE RESIDENCY TIME IN THE CWA
WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO OCCUR FROM
THESE STORMS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND EASTERLY FLOW DOES SUPPORT
A FOG THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS WELL. SURFACE TO 1KM MIXING RATIO
DIFFERENCE IS HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT WHICH DOES GIVE ME
CONFIDENCE IN THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. REFS AND HREF
PROBABILITIES ALSO FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS WITH 50-70% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AS WELL. DO HAVE SOME
CONCERN ABOUT THE DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFFECTING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
DENSE FOG. HOWEVER WITH THIS BEING A CLASSIC FOG SETUP, SUCH
HIGH PROBABILITIES AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWING FOG
HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
INTO THURSDAY, FOG IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING BUT IN SPOTTY LOCALES COULD LINGER UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WARM BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INCREASING WINDS SOME TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEEPENS.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN OUR NORTHWEST
FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AS SEEN IN HREF
AND REFS PAINTBALL REFLECTIVITIES IN A STORM OR TWO ATTEMPTING
TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES
AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS AROUND 10-15% DUE TO NO OTHER
OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING TO KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING AS WE
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. SOME GUIDANCE AS WELL ALSO DOES SHOW SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES ALONG A
DRYLINE AND/OR SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOW GIVEN THE OTHERWISE NEBULOUS FORCING BUT THEORETICALLY
COULD VERIFY GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO THE AREA SUPERCELLS WOULD BE ON
THE TABLE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN DUE TO
VERY HIGH AMOUNTS OF CAPE, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND 35-40 0-6
BULK SHEAR. IF THE COLORADO STORMS COULD FORM A LANDSPOUT OR TWO
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ASSUMING THEY COULD REMAIN
ATTACHED TO THE BOUNDARY.
THURSDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHERE WINDS CAN REMAIN LIGHTER
AM STARTING TO SEE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH AS IF
WINDS CAN REMAIN HIGHER THAN ANY FOG WOULD REMAIN PATCHY OR NOT
HAPPEN AT ALL. DUE TO THIS AM OPTING TO LEAVE OUT FOR THE
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. DID
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 60S DUE TO HIGHER
DEW POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
FRIDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S. MOISTURE IN THE
MIXING LAYER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LINGER MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70; SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS COULD MIX
DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND FAR WESTERN PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH CURRENTLY FORECAST. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE
IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH COULD BE
THE SOURCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM DECAYING
STORMS.
SATURDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO A 597 DAM HIGH
AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S. HAVE SOME
CONCERNS FOR LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED DEW POINTS TO MIX DOWN
WHICH WOULD LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES FURTHER INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LEADING TO A ZONE OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS; BUT BREEZY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING 20-30 MPH
MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOW, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FAVORING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SHOULD THESE LOWER
DEW POINTS MIX DOWN AND WINDS INCREASE THEN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD OCCUR. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND ALONG A THETA E BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE AROUND 500MB ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. SEVERE
WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND SHEAR AROUND 30- 35
KNOTS, AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH THE NORTHERN
MOST ZONE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WITHIN THAT REGIME WOULD HAVE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AS WELL WITH RIGHT MOVER MOTION NEARLY
STATIONARY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW THE ENVIRONMENT IS BIT MORE
MARGINAL BUT AGAIN VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE IN PLACE. A
DEVELOPING 700MB JET DURING THE EVENING WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONTINUITY OF THE TWO AREAS PERHAPS TURNING
INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER. WITH THIS STILL BEING 3-4
DAYS OUT WANT TO HOLD OFF ON INCREASING POPS DUE TO CONCERNS OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT AND IF THE FEATURES
MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFT AROUND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
BEGINNING SUNDAY, THE TRI-STATE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER A
MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 100S. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FORECAST IN THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY.
STARTING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. CURRENTLY, WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST
CHANCE WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) FROM 30-50% FOR THE
CWA.
DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
FOR THE WESTERN CWA ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TEENS TO 20S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 MPH, BUT
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS DO NOT COINCIDE WITH LOWEST RH VALUES OF THE DAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST
ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA ALLOWING MINIMUM RH
VALUES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER INTO THE 20S TO 30S AFTER TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z FOR KGLD AND KMCK.
CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK APART AS THE CEILINGS RISE, HOWEVER THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE THAT PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL BETWEEN 18-19Z. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, AND WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS, BUT WILL
LARGELY BE AROUND 15 KTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE VARIABLE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS
MOVES IN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING, EXPECT MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR A FEW HOURS, LINGERING LONGER AT
KMCK. BY 15-16Z, VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO EVEN LOWER
DENSITY ALTITUDES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...CA
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