646  
FXUS63 KGLD 082006  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
106 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 105 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
TRIMMED A FEW MORE COUNTIES OFF WESTERN SIDE OF ADVISORY,  
ANTICIPATE LETTING THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 21Z.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE MAINLY CLOUDY  
WITH FREEZING FOG BEING IMPACTFUL IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH  
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE IN SPOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING  
WIDELY AND ARE CLOUD COVER DEPENDENT FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE UPPER  
20S. WINDS ARE EASTERLY AND LIGHT.  
 
THE LATEST RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS AND MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TREKKING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES, WITH  
THIS SYSTEM SET TO PASS ALONG/NORTH OF THE CWA LATER TODAY.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CWA,  
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING IN BEHIND IT. EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE  
CWA AT THIS TIME IS ALLOWING FOR A LOW CLOUD SHIELD TO ENVELOPE THE  
AREA. AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL, PROMPTING  
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF COLORADO THROUGH 16Z. CDOT  
CAMERAS SHOWING VISBY DOWN A MILE OR LESS. OVER IN KANSAS, LOCAL  
RADAR/DOT CAMERAS SHOWING SOME FOG ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT  
DRIZZLE/SNOW IN SPOTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. THE ENTIRE  
SURFACE REGIME WILL GET PUSHED SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE  
UPPER SUPPORT COMES OFF THE ROCKIES. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY REMAINS UP AN INTACT, ALBEIT WITH LESS QPF THAN 24 HRS AGO.  
STILL EXPECT AREAS TO MAINLY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE MAIN  
WX IMPACT FEATURE.  
 
AS SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST, EXPECTING A DECENT  
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE TO BEGIN THE DRYING  
PROCESS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PUT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO  
WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DROP  
RH VALUES INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON ANY RFW PRODUCT  
THERE.  
 
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HIGH  
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE, RESULTING IN  
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT  
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND WILL  
NEED TO BE MONITORED.  
 
FOR TEMPS, AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHS  
WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH 40S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WEST OF  
HIGHWAY 25, UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED.  
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S EACH NIGHT IN THE SHORT  
TERM. WIND CHILL READINGS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE  
SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS ABOVE ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY  
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. BUNDLE UP IF VENTURING  
OUTDOORS!!  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE START OF  
THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON SUNDAY WITH THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE  
ROCKIES IS ALSO PRESENT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RAMP UP  
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
MOVING ONSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA/OREGON/WASHINGTON BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.  
THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA MONDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WE'LL SEE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY WITH COLD FRONT  
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN  
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVING THE 531 DAM LOW CENTER POSITIONED OVER  
NE CO/SW NE 12Z TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY,  
THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN NE AND SD.  
 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT SYSTEM RANGE FROM 50S TO LOW-60S, APPROX. 8-15 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FOR  
THE START OF THE WEEK WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25  
MPH ON SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID-TEENS TO  
LOW-20S MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. SOUTH WINDS  
CONTINUE BREEZY ON MONDAY GUSTING UP TO 30-35 MPH BUT MINIMUM RH  
VALUES COME UP TO AROUND 20-25%, STILL SOME FIRE CONCERNS EXIST.  
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW-20S TO MID-30S.  
 
WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, LOW  
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.  
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN AS A RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINNING  
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO  
TUESDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS FOR OUR  
COUNTIES THAT TOUCH THE KS/NE BORDER, AROUND 1-3 INCHES WITH BLOWING  
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN  
EXACT PLACEMENT COULD SHIFT SNOW NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA ENTIRELY,  
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SUCH. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS  
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER-20S TO MID-40S. THE  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED, GUSTING UP TO AROUND 40 MPH  
RESULT IN SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MID-WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S. MINIMUM  
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO  
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH THE PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS, WILL ALSO  
NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST OUTSIDE AREAS OF ANY  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM WEST TO  
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING KGLD TO GO VFR BY 18Z, THEN  
KMCK TO FOLLOW BY 19-20Z. THEREAFTER, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ003-  
004-016.  
 
CO...NONE.  
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ080-  
081.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...024  
SHORT TERM...JN  
LONG TERM...CC  
AVIATION...024  
 
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