503
FXUS63 KGLD 211054
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
454 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A DRY LINE LOCATED IN THE COLORADO AND KANSAS
BORDER AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORECAST PROBLEMS
FOR BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND
CONVECTION.
AS FOR THE FORMER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 15% AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE HUMIDITY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER,
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, MITIGATING ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS DO RAMP UP TONIGHT RATHER QUICKLY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE BY 06Z, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE RECOVERING AND DO NOT SEE ANY OVERLAP BETWEEN THE GUSTS AND
15% HUMIDITY. ON WEDNESDAY, A DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER AREA. WEST OF THE DRY
LINE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 15% IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH. 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE
TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE PLACEMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN FACT, NAMNEST HAS THE DRY LINE ALL THE WAY TO
HIGHWAY 59 IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
COLORADO, DECREASING FURTHER EAST IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
AS FOR THE LATTER, THERE IS AN EVER SO SMALL CHANCE (LESS THAN
20%) THAT A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK WAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE SOME NEBULOUS FORCING, AS WELL AS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A TROUGH LAZILY WEAVING ITS WAY THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS. NAMNEST IS THE MORE OPTIMISTIC OF THE CAMS
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR, BUT IT APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE
SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN. IT SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
FROM NORTON TO GOVE AND EAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF THE HREF. THIS COMPARED TO THE
HRRR WHICH HAS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE SAME AREA,
CLOSER TO THE HREF MEAN. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRAY UPDRAFT, WEAK FORCING AND THE MEAGER MOISTURE WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
DRY LINE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BY MID AFTERNOON (AROUND 21Z). SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THE DRY LINE, AND IN ADDITION THE CAMS
ARE NOT QUITE ON THE SAME PAGE IN REGARDS TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS. ON THE ONE HAND, THERE IS THE NAMNEST WHICH DEVELOPS
ROBUST CONVECTION WITH SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-60 KTS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ON THE
OTHER HAND THERE IS THE HRRR, WHICH HAS STRUGGLING UPDRAFTS WITH
SBCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS. USING
THE HREF MEAN APPROACH YIELDS SOMETHING IN THE MIDDLE: SBCAPE
OF UP TO 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-50 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A DRY LINE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE SITUATION WITH PERHAPS
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER END PARAMETERS CAN BE
ACHIEVED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
MOVING ON TO THURSDAY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE 70S WITH
THE LOWS FORECASTED IN THE 40S. ONE CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER FOR
EASTERN COLORADO, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RH VALUES IN THE
LOWER TEENS, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 35 MPH IS 15-30%.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, THERE IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 50-70S ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE
HIGH 20 TO MID 30S. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING LOWS LESS THAN 32 ARE
ABOUT A 15-40% CHANCE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS OF A CONCERN THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THERE
BEING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH. LOOKING AT
POPS THEY HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH VALUES NOW IN
THE 40-60%. THE HIGHEST VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAIN, HOWEVER
IF WE DO REACH THE LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WE COULD SEE A
MIXED PRECIPITATION OF RAIN AND SNOW. GRANTED THIS SYSTEM IS A WAYS
OUT AND THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH IT, BUT IT IS GOOD TO SEE
MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
21Z AT KMCK AND 00Z AT KGLD. WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND LOW
PRESSURE INCHES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK/HOLDREN
AVIATION...ANW
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