240
FXUS63 KGLD 070854
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
154 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF KS
25. LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 1/2 MILE
ARE POSSIBLE.
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR YUMA COUNTY FOR
SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ADJACENT COUNTIES AS WELL.
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK
AND MAY BRING PRECIPITATION. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 109 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE SOME
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO DAM UP AGAINST THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DUE TO HOW SHALLOW THE
SATURATED LAYER IS. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 12Z HREF DOES SHOW A
30% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 1/2 MILE ROUGHLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. A FEW THINGS ARE PLAYING AGAINST THE
FOG FORMATION WITH THE MAIN ONE BEING A QUICKER SWITCH TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING SO ANY
FOG WOULD LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR FREEZING FOG LEADING TO LOCALIZED
SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES. ROADS COULD BECOME A CONCERN
BUT WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS ROAD AND SOIL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICE ACCRETION
UNLESS FOG PERSISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. STRATUS
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY TURN OF THE WINDS.
SATURDAY, ESSENTIALLY A SOUTHEAST MOVING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALONG A BELT OF WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO 70S FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THICK STRATUS COULD LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. HAVE NUDGED
DOWN HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND
GOVE COUNTIES DUE TO THIS CONCERN. THE NAM IS CURRENTLY THE
OUTLIER ON TEMPERATURES AS IT KEEPS A REALLY THINK STRATUS DECK
ALL DAY WITH ONLY A HIGH OF 40 DEGREES. DO NOT QUITE WANT TO BE
THAT AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME BUT THE NAM TYPICALLY DOES DO A
GOOD JOB OF BEING THE FIRST TO PICK UP ON THESE SIGNALS IN THE
PAST SO IF CONFIDENCE DOES IN CREASE IN THAT POTENTIAL THEN
HIGHS FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES COULD BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES TO
WARM ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
ON THE FOR SURE WARM SIDE OF THE CWA HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS THAT HIGHS MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO THE
COMPRESSION WARMING ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT DEW
POINTS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP
OUT AROUND 5500 FEET AGL. RAP, NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW
LOWER DEW POINTS ALOFT WHICH SHOULD BE EASILY MIXED DOWN. CROSS
SECTIONS DO SHOW SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 500MB BUT SHOULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT MIXING. AN INCREASING
850MB JET AROUND 30-35 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE GFS, DOES HAVE BIT OF STRONGER JET WOULD
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH BUT CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS THAT
STRONG IS ONLY AROUND 10-20%. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR YUMA COUNTY COLORADO FROM
11AM THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY DUE TO 80% CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST 3
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT AND THE 850MB JET IS STRONGER THERE IS POTENTIAL IT
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ADJACENT COUNTIES AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY 10-20% AT THIS TIME. FURTHER EAST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AROUND 10-15 MPH AND MORE VARIABLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND
GUST POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO END AROUND 430-5PM MT WITH WINDS
REAMING STILL AROUND 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUNDAY AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE MORE TRANQUIL AS THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO BE VOID OF ANY PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING WINDS.
SYNOPTICALLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH
OUR MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BUT WITH THE LACK
OF WIND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVELING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. AN
ATTENDANT LOW TO THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ALONG THE
NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PRODUCING
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S, AND RH VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT YET A CONCERN, AS NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ONLY ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OR LESS FOR WIND GUSTS TO MEET
CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING NEEDED RESTS AT
ABOUT 5% OR LESS.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS MONDAY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
CWA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO
MID-50S, THOUGH THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE THAT HIGHS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION COULD BE BELOW 50.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE FORECAST REGION AS A TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ALLOW FOR A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE CWA, ALONG
WITH POTENTIALLY BRIEF PERIODS OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THESE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER, COOLER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE LAST
WEEK ARE FAVORED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S
THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR
WINTER WEATHER. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MANY WINTER SYSTEMS COULD COME THROUGH, AS
WELL AS THE COVERAGE, TIMING, AND INTENSITY OF EACH. BASED ON MY
ANALYSIS, THERE ARE TWO POTENTIAL SYSTEMS THAT SEEM TO STAND OUT,
THE FIRST BEING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE SOMEWHERE IN THE WYOMING AND/OR COLORADO
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BE EASTWARD
OR SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FURTHER SOUTH THIS LOW PRESSURE IS ALLOWED TO
FORM AND TRACK, THE MORE LIKELY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW COULD BE OBSERVED
IN THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW OF A COUPLE
INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE LOW IS ALLOWED TO TRACK AS FAR SOUTH
AS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, THOUGH GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES ONLY AROUND A 5% CHANCE OF THIS SCENARIO. I BELIEVE ITS
MORE LIKELY THIS SYSTEM WOULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWFALL HALF AN INCH OR
LESS. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
AROUND 25% OF GEFS AND ECMWF MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST AREA 2 INCHES OR GREATER. EVEN
SO, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE VERY UNCERTAIN ACROSS ALL
MEMBERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVERNIGHT,
SO CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED AND WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS AND SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS YUMA COUNTY FOR SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MIXING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND
5000 FEET AGL DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY MIX
DOWN SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES THAN
FORECASTED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH, SOME
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THE 850MB WIND FIELD WHICH IS CAUSING THE
WINDS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WHICH WOULD THEN RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY 10-20% AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. EVEN IF MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED
SURFACE RH FORECASTS ARE STILL AROUND 16%. WITH D1 DROUGHT
CREEPING BACK INTO THE COUNTY THIS SHOULD STILL LEAD TO THE
SAME FIRE BEHAVIOR EVEN IF HUMIDITY VALUES WERE TO FALL A
LITTLE MORE. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ADJACENT COUNTIES (DUNDY, KIT CARSON,
CHEYENNE (KS), SHERMAN). WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POTENTIAL MIXING POTENTIAL AND IF THE 10-20% CHANCE THAT
WINDS ARE STRONGER THEN THE RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED SOME.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW IN THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS BUT THE OVERALL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL.
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 MPH. DUE TO
DIURNAL MIXING WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD BE SPORADIC AND ISOLATED IN
NATURE. DUE TO THIS THE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED CONDITIONS HAS
DECLINED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ252.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK/DAVIS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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