864  
FXUS63 KGLD 110450  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
950 PM MST MON FEB 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  
 
- A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY EVENING  
TO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR RAWLINS, DECATUR, NORTON, THOMAS,  
SHERIDAN, GRAHAM, LOGAN, AND GOVE COUNTIES. A WINTER STORM  
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 3-8  
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE  
TRI-STATE AREA. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PLANNED  
FOR.  
 
- WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE -5 TO -15F RANGE TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WHILE THURSDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS COOL TO  
THE -15 TO -20F RANGE.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 735 PM MST MON FEB 10 2025  
 
LOOKING AT 00Z AND SOME 18Z GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IF  
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OCCURS TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW ABOUT 10K-12K FT WITH A DRY  
SLOT ABOVE. WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE LATER THIS  
EVENING, TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL DECREASE ALLOWING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. MODEL QPF IS  
LITTLE TO NONE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA SO WE MAY BE  
RELYING ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
REACHING A MORE PREFERRED LEVEL FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH TO GET  
ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL. SO FOR NOW, THERE IS A 20%-40% CHANCE FOR  
SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND A 40%-60% CHANCE OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY  
(MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST). REGARDLESS OF THE CHANCE OF SNOWFALL, AMOUNTS WOULD  
ONLY BE A TRACE TO PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND  
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO  
AROUND 11 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE  
MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.  
 
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS, AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE AT 100%  
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME BLOWING  
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST MON FEB 10 2025  
 
IT'S A BUSY START OF THE WEEK FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. A COLD FRONT  
IS STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BETWEEN SCOTTSBLUFF AND NORTH PLATTE  
IN NEBRASKA WHICH HAS HELPED ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN  
HALF OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT. THE FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST. LIGHT  
SNOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED  
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE TRI-STATE  
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN 850 MB  
HIGH WILL MOVE IN WITH THE MOISTURE WHILE A LEE TROUGH/COLORADO LOW  
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD  
BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THIS  
FIRST ROUND OF SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES  
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF  
THE AREA WITH OUR SOME LOCALES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA  
COULD FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS THANKS TO THE ARCTIC AIR MASS  
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING  
COULD FALL INTO THE NEGATIVES WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -11F IN  
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.  
 
ON TUESDAY, WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO KANSAS AND  
CONVERGE WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOISTURE AS THE LOW  
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS, THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO  
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES (GREATER THAN 60%)ACROSS THE AREA AND  
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE  
ACROSS THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS), GFS, NAM AND SREF  
IS BECOMING MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROADER  
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. SHOULD THIS  
BAND DEVELOP, BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME LOCALES COULD  
SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 9- 12". THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY OVER  
WHERE THE BAND WILL SET UP AND IT'S ORIENTATION. MOST CAMS ARE  
FAVORING MORE OF A NORTHEAST- ORIENTED BAND WITH HIGHER SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A ATWOOD TO COLBY TO OAKLEY LINE  
AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 6+" GREATER  
THAN 60% FOR THAT AREA, WE HAVE UPGRADED THOSE COUNTIES TO A  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM CST TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST  
WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA REMAINS UNDER A  
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR THE SAME PERIOD AS WE GET A  
BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD  
OCCUR. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 2-4" OUT OF THESE TWO  
ROUNDS. THIS SNOW WILL BE VERY POWDERY WITH LIQUID RATIOS OF  
15-22:1. FORTUNATELY THE EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD  
BEHAVE WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE AT 15-25 MPH. SNOWFALL RATE AND  
SLICK CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CREATE TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE  
AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG I-70 TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOST  
INTENSE SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 12 AM (MIDNIGHT) AND 12 PM  
(NOON) WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ANYONE WHO GETS STRANDED IN  
VEHICLES OR OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE  
ZERO, THOUGH WE COULD BE COLDER WITH THE SNOW. WIND CHILLS ARE  
APPROACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND  
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM -5 TO -15F.  
WEDNESDAY GETS A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS AND LOWS IN  
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MST MON FEB 10 2025  
 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS MORE  
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BLAST  
OF ARCTIC AIR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW FAST LINGERING SNOW  
DEPARTS THE AREA AS SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEPARTS AND FLOW ALOFT  
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE  
FOR A FEW WEAKER SNOW SHOWERS TO BE LINGERING IN THE EVENING,  
WITH FORCING RAPIDLY WANING AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN, THINK ANY  
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO ADDITIONAL SNOW.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRY  
CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. WHATEVER WARMUP  
THAT OCCURS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS RIDGE FLATTENS  
ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS REGION  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY  
ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIR, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH  
PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (70%  
CHANCE OF LESS THAN 1.0 INCH OF SNOW). OF GREATER CONCERN WILL  
BE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND FRONT. SOME VERY  
LARGE DIFFERENCES EMERGING AMONGST DIFFERENT GUIDANCE, WITH 80  
PERCENT CONFIDENT INTERVALS SHOWING RANGES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES.  
AM LEANING TOWARDS THE STRONGER (1040MB) TYPE SFC HIGH BASED ON  
AVAILABLE DATA WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS  
OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST MON FEB 10 2025  
 
KGLD...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A  
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING UP TO 25KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SUBSIDE  
TO AROUND 11KTS BY 05Z, VEERING TO THE EAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS  
AROUND 16Z. FROM 18Z-02Z, EAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS ARE  
ANTICIPATED BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 11KTS FROM 03Z-06Z.  
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS IN OR OVER THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH ABOUT  
23Z. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL ARRIVE AROUND 00Z AND GET  
BETTER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES LIKELY.  
 
KMCK...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A  
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL  
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SETTLING TO AROUND 11KTS  
BY 12Z, CONTINUING THROUGH 17Z. AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BE FROM  
THE EAST UP TO 11KTS. SIMILAR TO KGLD, CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT  
SNOW SHOWERS IN OR OVER THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH  
ABOUT 23Z. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL AND REDUCED  
VISIBILITIES MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.  
 
 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-027-041-042.  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY  
FOR KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029.  
CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.  
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...99  
SHORT TERM...KMK  
LONG TERM...JRM  
AVIATION...99  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab KS Page
The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab NE Page
Main Text Page