181
FXUS63 KGLD 122205
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
405 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL WINDOW FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN
YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO, CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
KANSAS AND DUNDY COUNTY IN NEBRASKA.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WED AND WED NIGHT.
- THREAT FOR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON INCREASING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
THROUGH TUE NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING SSE
FROM OREGON INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BRIEFLY STALL OVER NV
TONIGHT, THEN DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS TUE-TUE NIGHT. 12Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT
ENE-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO WED-WED NIGHT,
STEADILY DEAMPLIFYING/WEAKENING ALONG THE WAY. A TIGHTENING
HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER LOW AND A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL JET IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, MODEST
(1015-1020 MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ASSOC/W CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT, THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WILL MANIFEST AS
A NE-ENE WIND SHIFT AND EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST
KS BY LATE MORNING (15-18Z TUE) AND THAT A BROAD, WEST-EAST
ELONGATED CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A PRONOUNCED THERMAL
GRADIENT /BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF I-70, OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND
SOUTHWEST- CENTRAL KS.
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO VARY FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN,
VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS AT
LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WHETHER OR NOT (AND IF
SO, TO WHAT EXTENT) THE FRONT PROGRESSES EVEN FURTHER SOUTH MAY
LARGELY BE A FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER / DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
PERVASIVE AND PERSISTENT STRATUS NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD LIMIT
AIRMASS MODIFICATION DURING THE AFTERNOON, REINFORCING THE
SURFACE HIGH, TIGHTENING THE MSLP GRADIENT AND DRIVING THE
COOLER AIRMASS FURTHER SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES, WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE 50'S TO THE
70'S, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT. VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIVE FORCING (STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, FRONTOGENESIS) WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE, OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.. AND
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM NEST CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GOODLAND CWA.
ASIDE FROM A SMALL (~10%) CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER IN
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING, PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.
WED-WED NIGHT: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS THE DEAMPLIFYING
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ENE-NE FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO NORTHEAST CO.
MODEST NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
FOSTER WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AN ATYPICALLY SMALL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS FOR WED COULD
OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO
EXCEED THE 40'S AND LOWER 50'S, ESPECIALLY IF ELEVATED SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONFIDENT ON UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
THURSDAY TO START THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, PLACING US IN
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A DECENT JET
STREAK IS ANTICIPATED TO PRESENT OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROSSBY WAVE. FURTHERMORE, A SURFACE
LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PATTERN LIKELY CHANGES OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD, BRINGING US
INTO ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. MOVING FORWARD, WEAK RIDGING STARTS
TO DEVELOP SATURDAY SHIFTING 300- 500MB FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
SAID RIDGE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY,
PLACING THE TRI-STATE AREA RIGHT BACK IN SOUTHWEST FLOWING
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THURSDAY (10- 25%),
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW
(<5%) THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS LOW CHANCE (25%) FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM
ALOFT USHERS IN COOL/DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 50S INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST AS THE SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW KICKS OFF A WARMING TREND THAT RAISES HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY. AS
MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE SECTION, LOW CONFIDENCE (20-30%) EXISTS
OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN SOME AREAS NEAR OR WEST OF K-27.
FIRE WEATHER COULD BE A CONCERN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, SO TRENDS REGARDING SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RH IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE
INTO THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES. RH VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 20-40% DURING
THE DAY ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. WINDS ORIGINALLY COME ON STRONG
THURSDAY AT 20-35 MPH, GUSTING 30-50 MPH FROM THE NORTH. FRIDAYS
WINDS LIKELY WILL BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER AT 10-20 MPH, ALSO FROM
THE NORTH, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
THE DAYS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER.
SATURDAY'S WINDS WILL VARY AROUND THE REGION 15-25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH AND GUSTING 20-35 MPH. TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND, SUNDAY'S
WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT (5-10 MPH) SHIFTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND GUSTING UP TO 15 MPH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS MAY BE PRESENT ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTH TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE MORNING. AT
PRESENT, THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE GOODLAND
TERMINAL AROUND, OR SHORTLY BEFORE, SUNRISE. THE PRECISE
LOCATION/TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND EXTENT/COVERAGE OF LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND IT, VARIES FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FLIGHT CATEGORY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE E OR NE AND INCREASE TO
12-17 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
~09-12Z TUE MORNING.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS MAY BE PRESENT ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY TUE MORNING. AT PRESENT, THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO REACH
THE MCCOOK TERMINAL ~06-08Z TUE. THE PRECISE LOCATION/TIMING OF
THE FRONT, AND EXTENT/COVERAGE OF LOW CEILINGS BEHIND IT,
VARIES FROM MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN. WITH THIS IN MIND,
FLIGHT CATEGORY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E OR NE THIS EVENING. E TO NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS W/GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ~09-12Z TUE MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JRM/AMP
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page