783  
FXUS63 KGLD 221700  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1100 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 805 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
HAVE ALLOWED THE FROST ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS ARE JUMPING IN  
AFFECTED AREAS WITH SUNRISE UPON US. NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, TODAY IS LOOKING TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET  
AND WARM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
TOMORROW ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN.  
 
TODAY HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MOVE EAST INTO  
THE HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE WILL  
BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO LOWER PRESSURE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS  
TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH RELATIVELY DRY  
AIR REMAINING OVER THE AREA, SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70'S ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS  
WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED TO ISOLATED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES DROP INTO THE TEENS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN  
HALF OF THE AREA. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE AVOIDED AS WINDS STAY  
BELOW CRITERIA AND MAY EVEN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH SPEED  
AROUND 10MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER  
COOL NIGHT THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CLOUD COVER DOES  
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
COULD HAPPEN WITH SOME MOISTURE ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH CLOUDS.  
 
TOMORROW GETS A BIT TRICKY AS A COUPLE OF FEATURES MOVE IN AND  
CONDITIONS CHANGE A BIT. THROUGH THE DAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE  
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE EJECTING EAST DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FINALLY, A SHIFT IN THE  
LOWER LEVEL WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL  
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL  
KANSAS. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM  
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE  
DAY GOES ON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WOULD  
MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 100MBS OF THE AREA WHICH COULD SATURATE THE  
LAYER AND PRODUCE SPOTS OF DRIZZLE AS THE DAY GOES ON. THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS LONG AS  
CLOUD COVER DOES NOT PERSIST AND ALLOWS FOR SOME HEATING AND  
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. CURRENT THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW BUT  
WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE AREA AND IF  
COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST CAN MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE  
AREA. CURRENTLY HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70'S TOWARDS THE WEST  
AND MID 60'S TO THE EAST WHERE THE CHANCES FOR CLOUD COVER AND  
PRECIP ARE HIGHER AS WELL AS WHERE THE COLDER AIR WOULD BE INTRUDING  
IF IT REACHES THE AREA. SHOULD CLOUD COVER NOT DEVELOP EARLY, MOST  
OF THE AREA WOULD LIKELY WARM TO NEAR 70.  
 
TOMORROW NIGHT WOULD BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH  
WRAP AROUND CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL PRECIP FROM THE LOW HELPING TO  
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOWS TO ONLY DROP  
INTO THE 40'S. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WOULD DEPEND ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT ANY PRECIP THAT DID  
FORM OR REMAIN WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE  
FORECAST AREA. BEHIND IT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, BUT  
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL EITHER BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY  
OR COOLER, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY WILL BE.  
 
MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH.  
ACCOMPANYING IT WILL BE A WARM FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE AS  
TO HOW FAR EAST THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT  
MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF DOESN'T MOVE THE FRONT  
EAST UNTIL TUESDAY AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.  
 
TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  
THE GFS HAS SPED UP THE TROUGH PASSAGE FROM WHAT WAS SEEN LAST  
NIGHT. THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST  
TRACK/SPEED OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER DUE TO FORMING A  
CLOSED LOW. THIS IS CAUSING THE WARM FRONT TO BE DELAYED BEHIND THE  
GFS VERSION. AT THIS POINT AM NOT SURE WHICH MODEL TO BELIEVE AS  
BOTH ARE BEING CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER,  
THE ECMWF HAS HAD A LONGER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TROUGH THAN THE  
GFS, SO GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF MAY TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. TIME WILL  
TELL.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON  
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS OF COURSE FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE  
ECMWF. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE  
ECMWF MOVES THROUGH FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE  
DIFFERENCES BOTH SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE  
FRONT. DUE TO THE DRY GROUND CONDITIONS, AM EXPECTING THERE TO BE  
BLOWING DUST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL  
CONSENSUS HAS EXPANDED THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA. THE ECMWF IS MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING THAN THE  
GFS, AND THE ECMWF HAS A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAINFALL TO  
DEVELOP. THERE COULD EVEN BE A RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY, AND THURSDAY COULD BE AS WELL DEPENDING  
UPON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
 
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH,  
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN  
BEING TUESDAY TO NOW WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE WINDY AND  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS OVER THE WEST  
HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THURSDAY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE  
SIMILAR BUT THE WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
WITH A SURFACE LOW WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE  
EAST, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS. FOR NOW  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS, LOW CLOUDS  
WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW THEY ARE SCATTERED, BUT WILL HAVE TO BE  
MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS FOR A POTENTIAL BROKEN CEILING THAT  
MAY DIP TO MVFR.  
 
WINDS FOR KGLD, WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS THRU 23Z THIS  
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS. BY 14Z SATURDAY  
MORNING, EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS.  
 
WINDS FOR KMCK, WEST-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THRU 00Z SATURDAY, THEN  
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. BY 15Z, BECOMING EAST AROUND 10KTS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JN  
SHORT TERM...KAK  
LONG TERM...JTL  
AVIATION...JN  
 
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