647  
FXUS63 KGLD 180630  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
1230 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STRONG WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, ARE FORECAST TODAY.  
WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING DUST REDUCING AIR QUALITY AND  
VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY HARVESTED FIELDS.  
 
- A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN COLORADO,  
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR, AND RAWLINS  
COUNTY IN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FROST  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
 
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS DUST MAY  
OCCUR MONDAY.  
 
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING (OCT  
21).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1224 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
CURRENTLY, A LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH HAS  
DRAPED A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS LEADING  
TO SOME VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES  
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. WE HAVE A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM  
THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE CWA JUST AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
THIS MORNING, PRETTY MUCH AS SOON AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BURNS  
OFF, WE WILL BEGIN MIXING DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS AS PRESSURE RISES  
AROUND 1-1.5 MB/HOUR WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CWA WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN  
THE 30-40 KTS MARK, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS  
WILL OCCUR. PEAK WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 17-22Z TODAY AND WILL RAPIDLY  
WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET. THESE WINDS MAY KICK UP SOME PATCHY BLOWING  
DUST ACROSS THE AREA AND IMPACT AIR QUALITY, WORST NEAR NON-  
COVERED FIELDS. VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES, BUT MAY  
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO UNDER A MILE. OVERALL, THE BLOWING DUST  
THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT IT WAS EARLIER THIS MONTH AS  
RECENT MOISTURE AND LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES HELP TO LIMIT THE  
BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL.  
 
AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, THERE WILL BE AMPLE 500 MB  
VORTICITY, BUT FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE EASTERN  
CWA, WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY COLLECT, WE COULD  
SEE SOME SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS BETWEEN 15-00Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN YUMA COUNTY TO UPPER 60S IN GOVE COUNTY.  
 
TONIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTED AN 850 MB HIGH TO MOVE INTO EXTREME  
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS FAIRLY WEAK AND KEEP  
THE SKY CLEAR. WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO START DROPPING  
TO AROUND FREEZING, WHICH HAS PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNING TO BE  
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AREAS TO THE  
SOUTHEAST ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 33-36 DEGREES,  
PROMPTING A FROST ADVISORY.  
 
IT'S WORTH NOTING, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HEFTY IMPACT  
ON THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE HIGH STAYS ON ITS CURRENT PATH,  
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID 30S. THERE IS ALSO A 20% CHANCE THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER  
NORTH AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA'S WINDS REMAIN CALM FOR MOST OF THE  
NIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO UNDER FREEZING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 128 PM  
MDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS  
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT OF A  
WARMUP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH  
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME IS QUITE A  
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY FORECAST ON SATURDAY AS  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS HAS 55-60 KNOT WINDS AT  
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH  
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE NUDGED WINDS UP IN THE FORECAST TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL, ASSUMING THESE WINDS  
HOLD MAY ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST  
FOR SATURDAY, DUE TO STRONGER WIND FIELD AND HAVING MULTIPLE  
DAYS OF FURTHER DRYING OF THE TOP SOILS. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP  
AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER AS WELL AS ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE  
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN WHICH AT THIS  
TIME LOOKS TO BE A BIT BROADER. AT THIS TIME ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE  
WILL BE ON THE TABLE AS WELL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE  
WIDESPREAD FREEZE AS WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FROST  
INTO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THE SUNDAY MORNING FREEZE  
PLAYS OUT AS THE GROWING SEASON MAY COME TO AND END FOR SOME.  
 
MIDWEEK ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN  
CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING THIS TO BE MORE COMPACT. THIS LOOKS TO BE  
THE AREA'S NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE  
FINAL PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DROPS TO FAR SOUTH THEN THE  
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
HOWEVER, SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY. KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE WORST OF  
THE WIND WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE MID-  
DAY AND AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH A FEW RANDOM GUSTS UP TO 45-50 KTS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. KMCK WILL BE SLIGHTLY CALMER WITH GUSTS  
TOPPING OUT AROUND 35-40 KTS AND ONE OR TWO 45 KTS BEING  
FORECAST. BOTH LOCATIONS WILL BE AT RISK FOR SOME LIGHT BLOWING  
DUST, ESPECIALLY IF FIELDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ARE BARREN.  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY SLOW AROUND SUNSET.  
 
KMCK WILL HAVE A 10-15% CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS AROUND  
15-00Z AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT COULD DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM  
MDT /11 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001-002-013-027-041.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR  
KSZ003-004-014>016-028-029-042.  
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR  
COZ090>092.  
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM  
MDT /11 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CA  
LONG TERM...TRIGG  
AVIATION...CA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page
The Nexlab CO Page
The Nexlab NE Page Main Text Page