328
FXUS63 KGLD 212345
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, 75
MPH WIND GUSTS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 9
PM MDT THIS EVENING.
- LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24-HR ARE
MORE PRONE TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 70
MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TODAY, A 500 MB LOW WILL CREATE AN 850 MB AND SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA, SPARKING OFF MORE
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, BUT NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO JUST NORTH OF YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES, AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN OFF AS A
BROKEN LINE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS OF 18Z, THERE IS A CU FIELD
FORMING IN THIS AREA, WHICH WILL BECOME STORMS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. HAIL UP AROUND IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT EARLY ON, BUT IF A STORM CAN REALLY TAP INTO THE
SHEAR AND CAPE, 3 INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADIC
THREAT IS FAIRLY SIMILAR, A BIGGER HAZARD EARLY ON. THIS DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A GREAT TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT AS HODOGRAPHS ARE A
LITTLE TOO STRAIGHT. WINDS ARE A THREAT THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT,
BUT MORE SO AS THE BROKEN LINE GROWS TOGETHER. MOST LIKELY
WINDS WILL BE IN THE 60-70 MPH RANGE, BUT WINDS UP TO 80-85 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION LOOKS TO WEAKEN AROUND 3Z, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LASTING UNTIL AFTER 6Z.
LOWS TONIGHT DO LOOK TO BE A BIT COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE 50S. FOG AND STRATUS ARE
LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS AND SENDS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AND MID
80S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. CONVECTION LOOKS TO FIRE OFF THE
FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 21-23Z AND MOVE EAST INTO
THE AREA. THESE CAMS ARE SHOWING THESE STORMS DECAYING BEFORE
THEY EXIT COLORADO, BUT LOOKING AT CAPE AND SHEAR, THEY MAY
CONTINUE INTO NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS, UP TO 2 INCHES, AND WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW TORNADO RISK, TOO. ADDITIONAL SUB-
SEVERE CONVECTION MAY TRAIL THESE STORMS AND LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO END AROUND 3-5Z.
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 50S, MAYBE LOW 60S.
FOG AND STRATUS MAY RETURN AGAIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
***TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY***
A 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
STATES TUESDAY, WITH A MODEST 40-55 KT JET STREAK AT ITS BASE.
THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME, GEFS 850-MB HEIGHT MEAN-SPREAD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW IN COLORADO. SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE LOW IN COLORADO WOULD MEET NORTHERLY FLOW
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH AXIS, CREATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE FORECAST REGION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SETUP. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UP TO 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE-
BASED CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) MAY BE IN
PLACE. IN ADDITION, GFS AND EC MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 0-6
KM VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KTS IS REASONABLY POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE 500-MB JET STREAK. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE, WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS INCLUDING HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
THIS PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IS HIGHEST ON TUESDAY AROUND 15-20%.
***THURSDAY-SUNDAY***
RIDGING LOOKS TO BEGIN MOVING IN OVERHEAD SOMETIME THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO STICK AROUND ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY, THOUGH CHANCES
BEGIN TO DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER THURSDAY. THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA) HAS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN
0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY'S ACTIVITY BASED ON
NBM 24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS
ARE ALLOWED TO BECOME SEVERE DEPENDS ON THE POSITIONING AND
STRENGTH OF THE 500-MB JET. LREF 90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WINDS AT 500-MB COULD STILL REACH 30-40 KTS,
THOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE JET WILL BE WEAKER ON THURSDAY
THAN THAT OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE A BIT LOWER THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING THURSDAY IS DOWN TO ABOUT 5-10%.
BY FRIDAY, ALL AREAS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION HAVE A 1 IN 3
CHANCE OR LESS TO EXPERIENCE GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION ACCORDING TO NBM 24-HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
THIS DECREASES TO LESS THAN 10% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, AS TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN WARMING AGAIN. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, AND LOW TO UPPER
90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THIS HEATING OCCURS AND MOISTURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET IN. FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO MAY SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE ALLOWED TO REACH THE 25
TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS THIS ZONE, WHICH COULD IMPLICATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AS A CONCERN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN A RED FLAG
WARNING BEING NEEDED EITHER DAY IS AROUND 5% OR LESS, AS BOTH RH
VALUES AND WIND GUSTS ARE JUST MEETING CRITERIA FOR THE HAZARD.
ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY HELP
COUNTER THE INCOMING DRY CONDITIONS. EVEN SO, THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
GLD: AS OF 2320Z, ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE GOODLAND TERMINAL. THERE IS A LOW (~30%) CHANCE
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN CO COULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE GOODLAND TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SUB-VFR FOG COULD
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING (~15-18Z). CEILINGS
WILL LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN COLORADO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE GOODLAND
TERMINAL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION WITH THE
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SUB-VFR FOG AND/OR
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE MORNING. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON (~20Z).
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 0.9-1.75 INCH. WE ARE ALSO
EXPECTING 0C LEVEL TO BE AROUND 15,000 FEET AGL, LEADING TO DEEP
MELTING LAYERS, PROMOTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
RECENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS (PRELIMINARY) ALONG A LINE FROM
TRENTON, NE TO GRINNELL, KS RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY,
AREAS IN SOUTHERN RAWLINS AND NORTHERN THOMAS COUNTY RANGE
AROUND 2.5-5 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE
THAT TONIGHT'S STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE THAN 1-1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
SATURATED LOCATIONS, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPOUNDING
FLOOD RISKS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AROUND 30-40%.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE ARE RETURNING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA. IF STORMS KEEP PASSING OVER THE SAME, SATURATED
AREAS, FLOODING BECOMES A REOCCURRING RISK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
HYDROLOGY...CA
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