704
FXUS63 KGLD 152301
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
501 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND 30-50 MPH ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE IN COLORADO.
- FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THEN A LIGHT FREEZE
LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP,
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG JET STREAK OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING, BUT
HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR IN AREAS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREA CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.
IF AND WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR FOR THE AREA WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY
OF THE WIND THREAT FOR TODAY. IF CLOUDS CLEAR SOONER, THE RISK FOR
STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS THICK OR FAILS TO CLEAR,
THE OVERALL WIND THREAT COULD DIMINISH.
MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. AS OF 12PM MDT, PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS WILL
START TO CALM DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COULD SEE LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT, A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR COLORADO
COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHEYENNE, SHERMAN,
WALLACE, AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND DUNDY COUNTY IN
NEBRASKA. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE OUR COLORADO COUNTIES
AROUND A 80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 F. THE LINE OF COUNTIES
EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS AND COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER HAVE A 20-
40% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 F, WITH CHANCES INCREASING EAST
TO WEST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 50S. GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE JET STREAK OVER OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
EAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SO WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY AS WE TRANSITION TOWARD AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S FOR THE REGION.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS EXPECTED FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW TEENS FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES OF THE DAY, SO A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FURTHER DROP DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO
DRY OUT CONDITIONS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER (GFDI) VALUES ARE FORECAST
IN THE 30S TO 40S FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES, SO FIRES THAT START ARE
LIKELY TO SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S FOR THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VIA LONGWAVE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY TO
KICK OFF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SAID RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, SHOULD PROPAGATE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME ZONAL THROUGH
MONDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY PROJECTS A SECOND RIDGE TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE THE PLAINS REGION, SETTLING THE FLOW PATTERN BACK
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS, ALL AHEAD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW CONUS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE A BRIEF SHORTWAVE EARLY
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) BY THE
TIME THE EVENING COMES AROUND. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM
THIS TROUGH PASSAGE OTHER THAT A WIND SHIFT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY, MOVING INTO WESTERN
KANSAS MONDAY. THIS FEATURE ALSO SHOULD NOT DO MUCH OTHER THAN
PRESSURE CHANGES AND WIND SHIFTS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
PICK UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT MAY SET UP NEAR THE TRI-STATE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES CONDITIONS TO BE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. 5% OR LESS POPS (PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION) ARE FAVORED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS MAY NOT LAST
THOUGH AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE SECTION, PAIRED
WITH LOW-PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING THE NEXT DECENT
RAINFALL CHANCES TO OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT A GENERAL 15-25%
POPS IS FORECASTED AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS/QPF
DOESN'T SHOW MUCH ACCUMULATION FOR OUR AREA RIGHT NOW; NONETHELESS,
STILL WORTH MONITORING AS THIS EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
MOVING ON TO HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE COVERAGE AREA, A SLIGHT
WARMUP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD AS WE REBOUND FROM WELL-BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO MID/UPPER 70S TUESDAY THEN UPPER
70S/LOW 80S POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS,
SUNDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE THE COLDEST, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE MID 30S. LOWS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP ABOVE THE MID
30S, WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WARMING TREND WITH LOW/MID 40S AND
THEN UPPER 40S/LOW 50S EXPECTED, RESPECTIVELY.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE MID-TEENS (14-15%) IN OUR
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, SURFACE WINDS
OVER THESE AREAS SHOULD SIT AROUND 15-20 MPH FROM THE NORTH,
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. GOING FORWARD, RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED
AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS WEST OF US-385 MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE; THUS, THE FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK LIKELY WILL BE MILDER POST-SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA, RH VALUES IN THE 20-40% RANGE IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WINDS. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
MONDAY, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE, THEN
SETTLING BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. GUSTS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO EXCEED 25 MPH DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD EVERYWHERE
EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE LINE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AND AROUND 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-
35 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DECREASE
AROUND 22-23Z TO AROUND 10 KTS AND REMAINING FROM THE NORTH.
BEGINNING 04Z, EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AND LAST UNTIL
AROUND 11Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ001-013-027-041.
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ079>081.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ079.
SHORT TERM...RHOADES
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...HOLDREN
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