640
FXUS63 KGLD 062021
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP FIRE CONDITIONS LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TONIGHT, DESPITE THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL THEN WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SURGE INTO
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, IMPACTING MAINLY THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WORK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK LEE
TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO START THE PERIOD WITH THE AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EITHER BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 70S, OR SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW 80S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WINDS AROUND 5
TO 15 MPH ARE FORECAST UNDERNEATH THE HIGH.
FRIDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WITH SOME SLIGHT RIDGING AHEAD IN THE PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 80S.
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS, WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE AIR IS FORECAST TO ALREADY BE DRY ENOUGH
THAT WE SHOULDN'T SEE PRECIPITATION, EVEN WITH THE ADVANCING
FEATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE DEEPENING IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THOUGH,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FOR COUNTIES ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER WITH RH DIPPING MORE INTO THE TEENS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND GETS A LITTLE LESS CLEAR AS THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SPREAD IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST HAS THE AREA COOLING
GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IF PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE
RAIN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS.
THAT ALL BEING SAID, THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENS BOTH SHOW FAIRLY EQUAL
CHANCES FOR A SLOWER AND FASTER TROUGH PROGRESSION. THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION COULD LEAD INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH MORE
TIME TO PULL IN GULF MOISTURE AND HAVE A LOW SIT OVER THE AREA.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ON THE FLIP SIDE, THE
SLOWER TROUGH WOULD GIVE THE AREA MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
EVEN A 10% CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW. WHILE BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY BE MORE IMPACTFUL, FOR NOW AM STICKING
WITH A MORE MEDIAN SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO VERIFY MORE OFTEN IN
SITUATIONS LIKE THIS. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS NEXT BIG
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PIETRYCHA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...PIETRYCHA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page