216
FXUS63 KGLD 180708
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
108 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-15% RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH, 1 INCH HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. 15% CHANCE OF 60-75 MPH GUSTS, 1-2 INCH HAIL,
AND FLASH FLOODING FLOODING.
- HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S TODAY, BUT WILL START COOLING OFF
TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
AS OF 0530Z, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE BORDER AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES PAST U.S. 83 NORTH OF U.S. 36. BOTH OF THESE
FRONTS ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS HITTING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FORMS AND IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST, OUT OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER IT FORMS. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE NORTHWESTERN CWA HAS A 50%
CHANCE AT SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG LOOKS
TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MAX, NE TO FLAGLER, CO.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AROUND 1/4 MILE IN VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE LOW 60S IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA TO LOW 70S NEAR HILL CITY, KS.
LATER TODAY, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE COLD FRONT STALL OUT IN THE
EASTERN CWA, LIKELY OVER NORTON TO LEOTI. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-30 KTS. TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, BUT
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP, WE COULD (15% CHANCE) SEE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION FIRE OFF OF IT, AROUND 20-23Z.
SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH INVERTED-V
SOUNDING, MAKING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT A MICROBURST. CAPE AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE MORE PRIMED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
CLOSER TO NEBRASKA, OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WE GO
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, CAPE AND SHEAR BECOME EVEN WEAKER, MAKING STRONG
CONVECTION LESS LIKELY.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE COMING FROM A
QUICK MOVING COLORADO LEE LOW, STEMMING FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT
500 MB FROM A NORTHWEST CONUS LOW. CONTRARY TO WHAT THE SPC SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK SHOWS, THERE IS A NOTABLE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOK TO START FIRING OFF STORMS WEST OF THE CWA AROUND 20-23Z
AND PUSH INTO THE CWA WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. CAPE LOOKS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING, LARGELY IN THE 500-
1,500 J/KG RANGE, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING 30-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. LCLS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BEFORE AN INVERSION SETS UP
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO A LESS THAN 2% CHANCE OF A TORNADO. HOWEVER,
HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO GROW UP TO 1-1.5 INCHES. ALSO, 70 MPH WINDS FROM
A MICROBURST COULD OCCUR. THERE IS ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE OF THESE
HAZARDS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON, NE TO
CHEYENNE WELLS, CO, AND A 5% CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
FLASH FLOODING ALSO HAS A 10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 60
MILES OF THE TRI-STATE BORDER. THIS THREAT LOOKS TO ONLY OCCUR IF
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
9Z, BUT STORMS AND SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WILL INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S, DEPENDING
ON HOW EARLY THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 25-40% CHANCE THAT THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE INITIATING WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA
INTO THE MIDDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE 21Z IS LESS
THAN 5% WITH FLOODING BEING THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36 TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, DOWN AT 850 MB, A COMBINATION OF
THE PREVIOUS LOW MOVING TO THE EAST AND A HIGH PROJECTING AN
INVERTED RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA, WILL CREATE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND PUSH COOL, SATURATED AIR INTO THE CWA. THIS FEATURE IS
MOST EASILY SEEN AT THE 300K LEVEL. THIS LOOKS TO START AROUND 0Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT 500 MB, ALSO STARTING AROUND 0Z,
THE NORTHWEST CONUS LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
WILL PUSH OUT A TROUGH AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION.
THE SEVERE STORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED BETWEEN 0-9Z, FORMING IN
EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE BARRELING EASTWARD AND IMPACTING THE REST
OF THE CWA. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT,
INCLUDING A RISK FOR A TORNADO. THE TORNADO RISK IS GREATER EARLIER
IN THE EVENT, BEFORE AN INVERSION CAN SET UP, AND WITH DISCRETE
CELLS OR A QUICK FORMING QLCS.
AS FAR AS WIND AND HAIL, IF THE CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE, THE WIND
THREAT TOPS OUT AROUND 60 MPH, BUT HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH 1,500-3,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 35-60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. IF
THE STORMS CLUSTER IN A DISORGANIZED MANNER, STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
BECOME SEVERE, LEAVING 50-60 MPH WINDS AND 0.5-1 INCH HAIL BEING
MOST LIKELY. IF A QLCS CAN FORM, THE HAIL THREAT CAPS OUT AROUND 1
INCH, BUT 75+ MPH WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A 10-25% CHANCE FLASH FLOODING BECOMES A THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, TOO. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS FOR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE 1+ INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT. EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS
TRAILING THE INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. 24. THIS THREAT EXTENDS UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING, AS LINGERING SHOWER AND STORMS MAY NOT EXIT THE CWA UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN CO/WY
BORDER AND ENTER THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK JET STREAK SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING, THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND OUR FLOW WILL
MAINLY REMAIN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT A BRIEF WARMUP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN CALM TO VARIABLE.
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST. BOTH THE LREF AND NBM GUIDANCE
SHOW AT LEAST AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.1 INCHES OF
PRECIP FROM THE EARLY MORNING AND TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND 20-40% EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER VALUES OF CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR,
WHICH WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS THAN SEVERE STORMS.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN US/GULF REGION, ALONGSIDE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
WEDNESDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS. THE GFS HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE AR/LA/TX BORDER,
AMPLIFYING DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
CANADIAN-NH MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TX/GULF
BORDER WITHOUT AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD, PLACING IT INSTEAD OVER CO
AND WY. BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN-NH MODELS FEATURE EITHER A
WEAK TROUGH OR A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA.
ONE OTHER FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS, BOTH THE GFS AND
CANADIAN-NH MODEL SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN CO. WITH THAT BEING SAID, WHERE THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH/SHORTWAVES SET UP WILL EITHER INCREASE OR DECREASE OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS LEADING TO LLWS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE NIGHT AT 200-400 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
35-45 KTS. WE ARE EXPECTING A GRADUAL COLD FRONT TO PUSH OUT
THIS JET AROUND 10-12Z, ENDING THE LLWS. WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. KMCK MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 7Z. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TODAY, WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAKE THE WIND
FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, LIKELY LEADING TO STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATURDAY MORNING MAY SEE IFR CEILINGS RETURN ACROSS THE REGION.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
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