040
FXUS63 KGLD 202227
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MST THU FEB 20 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST THU FEB 20 2020
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS DOMINANT
RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW.
THROUGH TONIGHT... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LEFTOVER SNOWPACK FROM THE
TROUGH THAT CAME THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
SLOWLY MELTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.
FRIDAY... CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA GETTING INTO THE 50S. THIS SHOULD MELT ALMOST ALL OF THE
LEFTOVER SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL EVENT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOW 20S FOR MOST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MST THU FEB 20 2020
WILL START THE PERIOD WARM AND DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 60S AS ANY REMAINING SNOW COVER
IS MELTED. COLDER AIR DOESN'T REALLY START TO BE TAPPED UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED INTO TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY, WITH CONFIDENCE
ACCORDINGLY DIMINISHING. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE GFS,
WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK, COLDER AIR, AND MORE
WIND AND SNOW. NORTHEAST COLORADO WOULD BE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT
IN THE WORST CASE, WITH SOME OF THOSE CONDITIONS CREEPING INTO FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. ON
THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED THE TREND WHICH STARTED
WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT, AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH LESS WIND AND LESS SNOW, POTENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO SNOW. WITH
NO CLEAR BASIS TO ON WHICH TO MAKE A DECISION, THE GOING FORECAST
WILL BE SOMEWHERE DOWN THE MIDDLE, WITH MESSAGING OUTLINING THESE
TWO VASTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
FOR NEXT WEEK...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE
EARLY MONDAY, RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH
THE GFS NOTABLY STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
HOWEVER, IN NORTHWEST FLOW EVEN A CUT OFF LOW AS SHOWN IN THE GFS
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD RESULT IN NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES, WHILE
THE ECMWF WOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. GFS ALSO SHOWS BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT HARD TO FIND ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL,
HOWEVER, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 327 PM MST THU FEB 20 2020
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PATTON
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...PATTON
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