536
FXUS63 KGLD 101734
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2022
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AS RECENT RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST OVER THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS
TO DEVELOP WITHIN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN HIGHWAY 25 AND THE
KANSAS/COLORADO LINE AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME 850MB MOISTURE
ADVECTION, AND THIS IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL DID OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL WHICH MAY ALSO HELP AID IN SOME
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS VERY LOW BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS EAST COLORADO TO THE MID
90S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
TODAY OTHER THAN A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN ALL LOCALES AND BREEZIER
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO THE LOW 100S OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AIR
TEMPERATURES AS DRY SURFACE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S; A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS WERE USED FOR THIS FORECAST.THE HOT
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN RH
VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOWEST
RH VALUES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SSW AT 15-20
MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT BREEZIER DUE TO SOME GUIDANCE
HINTING AT LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOW RH AND POTENTIAL FOR BREEZIER WINDS FIRE WEATHER MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE THE FUELS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL, HOWEVER DUE
TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THERE MAY
BE SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY FAVORABLE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 60S ACROSS EAST COLORADO TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2022
SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 500MB PATTERN COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO WITH THE GEFS/GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOWING A 593DAM HIGH FIRMLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 28C TO 32C
RANGE SUPPORTING NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND
101 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WITH A CONTINUED VERY DRY SURFACE TO 300MB LAYER UNDER THE UPPER
HIGH EVEN THE SILENT POPS THAT ARE ADVERTISED ARE TOO HIGH. SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO
SATURDAY AND SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND
103 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS,
MAINLY FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND CHEYENNE WELLS WEST.
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM AVERAGE 27C
IN THE EAST TO 31C IN THE WEST, SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
OF THE AREA, BETTER MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER STARTS TO MOVE
IN TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, THE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 300MB
MOISTENS WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS
NBM OUTPUT OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM THE GFS IN THE 1.3-1.8 INCH RANGE DURING THE NIGHT AND
0-6KM WINDS UNDER 15 MPH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...THE 500MB PATTERN FEATURES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES
INTO TEXAS WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DONT APPEAR AS HOT AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LOWER 80S TO
MIDDLE 90S CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A
RATHER SATURATED LAYER FROM 850-500MB DURING THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHT IT WOULD APPEAR RATHER PROMISING FOR SOME RAINFALL
TO OCCUR FOR MANY. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2022
MCK AND GLD WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GLD SEEING SOME GUSTINESS AFTER 16Z
THURSDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
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