677
FXUS63 KGLD 131823
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1223 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES
TODAY.
- RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY FOR YUMA, KIT
CARSON AND CHEYENNE (CO). A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 TO STATE LINE FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL.
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR AT SAME TIME.
- NEXT WEEK, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND CULMINATING IN NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH BY THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK (THU-FRI).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE ADDED IN SOME SMOKE INTO THE FORECAST AS WELL DUE TO
THICK SMOKE BEING REPORTED BY RED WILLOW COUNTY DISPATCH WHICH
CORRELATED WITH A VISIBILITY DROP ON THE KMCK ASOS DOWN TO AS
LOW AS 3/4SM. KOIN IN OBERLIN AS FELL TO 1.25SM AS WELL. THE
SMOKE IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA FROM LARGE FIRES IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THIS COLD FRONT AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FOR OUR CWA AN HOUR OR TWO
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT MAKES A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE DAY DUE TO
THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WHICH IS THEN FORECAST TO RETREAT
BACK INTO NW KANSAS AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR BEING THE GREATEST AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO GUST 25-35 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK FOR KIT CARSON
AND YUMA COUNTIES WITH GUIDANCE FAVORING THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR
THE DAY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY. I DID CONTEMPLATE ADDING CHEYENNE
COUNTY COLORADO INTO THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WELL BUT THERE
STILL REMAINS QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW WINDY IT WILL GET DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE 850 AND 700MB JETS. ALSO DID CONSIDER ADDING
IN CHEYENNE (KS) AND DUNDY COUNTY AS WELL AS GUIDANCE INDICATES
A NON STRAIGHT FRONT AS IT SURGES THROUGH THOSE TWO COUNTIES
QUICKER DUE TO THE STRONGER 850MB WINDS. I AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF
DUE TO TIMING CONCERNS IF MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
CAN OCCUR ALTHOUGH I DO THINK THAT 1 OR 2 HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES.
SATURDAY, APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC WARM AND DRY SET UP FOR THE
AREA AS SURFACE TROUGHING LEADS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY DO
GET. THIS COULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON STRONG WINDS ARE AS WELL
BUT THINK THE 850MB WIND FIELD IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH STILL FOR EASTERN COLORADO WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO STRAIGHT TO A RED FLAG WARNING. DID ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR HIGHWAY 25 BACK WEST TO THE STATE LINE
MAINLY DUE TO THE CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE MAINLY DUE TO THE
ELEVATION CHANGE IN THE EVENT THAT THE CLOUDS DO HAVE AN EFFECT
ON THE WINDS. IF THIS IS NOT THE CASE THEN FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER TO THE EAST AS HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TEENS AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
AROUND 10MB. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH
THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE WIND AS WELL. STARTING WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FIRST. RAIN INITIALLY LOOKS TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION RAPIDLY OCCURS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR
SNOW SQUALLS AS WELL WITH THIS WITH THE 00Z NAM HAVING VERY HIGH
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH WITH
25-100 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE. THE HIGHEST CAPE IS PROGGED ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT LEAST ON 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE BUT DO NOTICE
THAT THERE A POCKETS OF 0 TO -0.5 OF EPV* IN PLACE. OVERALL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL BUT IF THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DO OCCUR THEN SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR
SO ARE POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THE
MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT. WE DO NEED TO BE
AWARE OF REFREEZE POTENTIAL AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
THE WIND PART OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE MOST CERTAIN. A
STRONG AND DEEP WIND FIELD IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY AND ACTUALLY STRONGER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN LAST NIGHT.
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE SOME 50-55 KNOT WIND GUSTS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH AT
THIS TIME TO ENSURE THAT THIS SIGNAL DOES IN FACT REMAIN. IF
SNOW CAN BE ONGOING AS WELL WITH THE WINDS THEN BLOWING SNOW AS
IT IS FALLING POTENTIALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO UNDER 1/2 MILE
COULD OCCUR AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE DAY BEFORE WANING
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW THE RAIN/SNOW
SCENARIO PANS OUT BLOWING DUST COULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL
ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF WINDS WITH THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM AND BREEZY DAYS LEADING UP TO THIS
EVENT AND THE OVERALL DRY SPELL THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN. THOSE WITH
LIVESTOCK INTERESTS ALSO NEED TO BE AWARE THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO FALL AT LEAST INTO THE LOW TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO AROUND ZERO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS LARGE
AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD/OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS STRONG WAA ACCOMPANIES THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE. EVEN WITH SOME FORCING PROVIDED BY THIS, AIRMASS
BELOW H85 LOOKS INCREASINGLY DRY AND COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMING FROM BUILDING RIDGE, DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY
REACHING AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP CWA PRIMED FOR WILDFIRES SHOULD THE WINDS
PICK UP EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KMCK AND KGLD
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL
WHILE KMCK STAYS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DUE TO
THE POSITION OF A WARM FRONT RETREATING BACK INTO THE AREA.
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECLINING AFTER SUNSET AS BOTH TERMINALS GO UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AT 5-10 KTS. BOTH TERMINALS COULD
SEE HAZE FROM THE NEBRASKA WILDFIRES WITH SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY
DECREASES OVER KMCK POSSIBLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252-253.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...KMK
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