549  
FNUS71 KGYX 150733  
FWSGYX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 5B TNC WELLS BARRENS...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY MAINE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
333 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON OCTOBER 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (207) 688-3224, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
 
DISCUSSION...EXPECT A DRY DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS  
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TEMPERATURE WILL COOL OFF TONIGHT  
ALLOWING GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............37 DECREASING TO 34 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...39.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5500 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 3400 FT AGL LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5500-54700 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................6 INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 34 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 46 IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 27.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............43 47 50 54 56 58 59 60 61 57  
DEWPOINT........39 38 37 36 36 35 34 35 35 35  
RH..............86 71 61 50 47 42 39 39 38 43  
APARNT TMP (F)..39 44 47 54 56 58 59 60 61 57  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 8 8 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.7 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.9 3.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 13 12 12 10 10 12 12 9  
LVORI...........5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2  
ADI.............6 18 30 37 38 43 48 43 46 27  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6  
VRATE KT-FT/10006 18 42 47 53 49 49 55 49 27  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............34.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...34.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 2 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING  
SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (800 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............4 UNTIL EARLY MORNING.  
ADI.................3 UNTIL EARLY MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............53 48 45 43 41 40 38 37 36 36 35 34  
DEWPOINT........35 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34  
RH..............50 60 65 70 76 79 85 89 92 92 96 100  
APARNT TMP (F)..53 48 45 43 41 40 38 37 36 36 35 34  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W SW SW SW NE S E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 3  
LVORI...........2 3 3 4 4 4 6 6 M M M M  
ADI.............5 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/10002 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............32 INCREASING TO 44.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...31.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3900 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 15 TO  
20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1200-50200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (46000-66200 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............MISSING.  
ADI.................MISSING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........5 5 5 5 5 5 25 25 25 25 25 25  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............33 31 34 40 45 50 53 56 57 58 60 58  
DEWPOINT........33 31 34 39 41 43 43 43 43 44 44 45  
RH..............100 100 100 96 86 77 69 62 59 59 55 62  
APARNT TMP (F)..33 31 34 38 42 47 53 56 57 58 60 58  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..0 1 1 3 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST. 2 2 6 8 11 13 14 14 14 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 2.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 6 10 15 17 18 20 20 20 20  
LVORI...........M M M M M M M M M M M M  
ADI.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 1 1 4 19 50 58 62 66 61 54 46  
 

 
FORECASTER...KIMBLE  
REQUESTED BY...JON BAILEY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1917210.0/GYX  
.DELDT 10/15/19  
.EMAIL JBAILEY@TNC.ORG  
 
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