530  
FNUS71 KGYX 290746  
FWSGYX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 2-3 KPLAINS TREX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
346 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (207) 688-3224, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
DRY WEATHER AND MODERATE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY  
UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL BE AOB 15 MPH  
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER LOCAL WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY  
AND OCCASIONALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MT WASHINGTON IMPACTS FLOW  
UPWIND OF THE BURN SITE. WE WILL MIX WELL THROUGH THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HUMIDITY FORECAST AROUND 50  
PERCENT. HUMIDITY RECOVERS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WINDS  
GOING CALM. MIXING TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL QUICKLY  
LOWER HUMIDITY INTO THE 40S OR 50S BY LATE MORNING... BUT  
VARIABLE WINDS TURNING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A  
MOISTENING TREND.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............42.  
HEAT INDEX...63.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (47500 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................1.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........25 25 53 53 53 53 53 53  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............54 58 60 62 63 62 62 61  
DEWPOINT........44 44 44 43 43 43 42 41  
RH..............69 59 55 50 48 50 48 48  
APARNT TMP (F)..54 58 60 62 63 62 62 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 9 9 9 9 10 9  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 3.5 4.3 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.5 3.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 6 6 5 5 5 14  
LVORI...........4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..32 43 48 33 19 19 17 14  
VENTRATE CAT....PR FR FR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST AFTER  
3 AM.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............39 DECREASING TO 36 AFTER 3 AM.  
WIND CHILL...34.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............5 IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
ADI.................1 IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........19 19 19 19 19 19 3 3 3 3 3 3  
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY  
WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............57 52 48 46 44 42 41 40 39 37 36 36  
DEWPOINT........41 40 40 39 39 38 37 37 37 37 36 36  
RH..............55 63 74 76 82 86 85 89 92 100 100 100  
APARNT TMP (F)..57 52 47 45 42 40 39 38 37 34 36 36  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 10 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 12 14 14 13 10 10 7 7 7  
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 M M M M  
ADI.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 13 10 10 12 7 9 6 3 2 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............37 INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE MORNING.  
WIND CHILL...32.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 1 TO 3  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1500 KNOT-FT).  
LVORI...............MISSING.  
ADI.................MISSING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........11 11 11 11 11 11 30 30 30 30 30 30  
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS ARS  
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST FST  
TSTM COV........NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............35 35 41 47 52 58 59 62 64 62 61 59  
DEWPOINT........35 35 37 39 39 40 40 40 41 42 44 44  
RH..............100 100 85 74 61 51 49 44 43 48 53 57  
APARNT TMP (F)..32 35 41 47 52 58 59 62 64 62 61 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N NE E SE S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 7 6 5 5 5 3 5 6 7 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N NE NE W W W W W S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 5 6  
LVORI...........M M M M M M M M M M M M  
ADI.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 2 3 7 9 10 9 9 11 10 10 8  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
 

 
FORECASTER...CASEY  
REQUESTED BY...JON BAILEY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2218806.0/GYX  
.DELDT 09/29/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JBAILEY@TNC.ORG  
 
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