797
FXUS64 KFWD 082043
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS INCLUDING ISOLATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OTHER AREAS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NOT COVERED BY
THE WARNING.
- MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL/SLEET TOTALS STILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/10" ARE EXPECTED ON AVERAGE, BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1/4".
- MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE FINAL DAY AS WE
ANTICIPATE THE ARRIVAL OF WINTER WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING, BUT NORTH WINDS
WILL KEEP US RATHER CHILLY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERVIEW:
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND QUICKLY TAP INTO A PLUME OF MOISTURE,
ADVECTING IT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES LATE TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP, LIKELY INITIALLY IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, CONTINUING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES:
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER FOR THURSDAY, AND WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT SEEN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE, WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AVERAGE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/10" ARE STILL
EXPECTED, BUT THERE IS AN ISOLATED (10%) CHANCE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1/4". ANY AREAS THAT SEE THESE HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD EXPERIENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
PRECIPITATION TYPES:
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS GOING TO BE A MESSY SITUATION, AND THERE
ARE BOUND TO BE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT WE FORECAST VERSUS WHAT
ACTUALLY HAPPENS. WE ARE STILL CONFIDENT THAT THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL BE SNOW, AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN A RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY IN OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN WILL SEE A
MESSY MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. WE HAVE DONE OUR BEST TO CAPTURE TRENDS BELOW, BUT JUST
KNOW THESE DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COMBINATION
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. THURSDAY
MORNING, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY SEE A
COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. AS TEMPERATURES WARM JUST
ABOVE FREEZING, MORE OF CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINANTLY COLD RAIN. THE REST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IN ANY AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. FORECASTING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN
REMAINS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE, AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING
INTRODUCES COMPLEXITIES AND UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH LOCATIONS REMAIN
ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING.
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE THURSDAY EVENING, A FULL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH PRIMARILY
COLD RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES (THOSE NOT
COVERED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY) THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, AS WE CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LINGERS.
ACCUMULATIONS:
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2"
AND 5" ON AVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE BANDS OF SNOW SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 8". ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS, SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/10" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED AREAS (PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING) COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/4".
IMPACTS:
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO VARY DRASTICALLY ACROSS THE REGION, OWING TO
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES, ROAD TREATMENT/CONDITIONS, ETC. SLICK
ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
ROADWAYS LIKELY WON'T OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ANY LIQUID ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ROAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS OCCUR.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 424 AM CST WED JAN 8 2025/
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT A RAPID EXPANSION
EASTWARD AND AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH MIDDAY. AS THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY COOLS
AND SATURATES, PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY INITIALLY BE A MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TX
COUNTIES. AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S AND WOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN SOUTH OF I-
20 WHERE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY FARTHER
NORTH FROM THE METROPLEX NORTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, SO IMPACTS MAY INITIALLY BE
MINIMAL.
THINGS WILL GET MORE INTERESTING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY EVENING WHEN THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
EJECT EASTWARD. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER WILL BE AIDED BY 70 KT OF FLOW WITHIN A COMPLETELY SATURATED
LAYER. MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A REINVIGORATION OF
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION INITIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES,
THEN EXTENDING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO THE RED
RIVER AND ARKLATEX DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO AN INTENSE BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN 700-400
MB. AN EXAMINATION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITHIN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STABILITY WHICH
DEVELOPS AROUND 21Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND 3Z
FRIDAY. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS STRONG FRONTOGENTIC FORCING IN
LINE WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK STABILITY SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE INTENSE BANDS OF SNOWFALL TO OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WITH MUCH ADVANCE NOTICE, THE CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FOR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
AREAS TO PICK UP MUCH MORE SNOW THAN THE CURRENT BROADER BASED
AMOUNTS BEING FORECAST. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX WHICH HIGHLIGHTS AN AREA JUST NORTH OF THE
METROPLEX TOWARD THE PARIS AREA AS A POTENTIAL AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WE'LL STILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL FORECAST OF 2
TO 4 INCHES IN THIS AREA, HOWEVER A REASONABLE HIGHER END TOTAL
WITHIN ANY BANDED PRECIPITATION COULD TOP 6 TO 9 INCHES. WITH THE
LATER ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS, MORE OF THIS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT ROADS AND TRAVEL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF VERY QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH FRIDAY BEING A COLD AND CLOUDY DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE. A SLOW WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
METROPLEX AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BANDED HEAVY SNOW
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX, WE'VE OPTED TO UPGRADE A
PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE
REMAINING AREAS WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER TODAY FOR POTENTIAL
INCLUSION OR UPGRADE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHTER
AMOUNTS.
DUNN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 120 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION. A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN MAY OCCUR AT KACT AROUND
MIDDAY, BUT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESUME BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS THE METROPLEX IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A SNOW/SLEET
MIX, TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A RAIN/SLEET MIX DURING THE DAY.
A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE METROPLEX LATE
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY NOT ENDING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING IS STILL UP
IN THE AIR, AS IT IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EXISTENCE AND
MAGNITUDE OF A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IT'S POSSIBLE WE
END UP WITH MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
THE TAFS AS ANYTHING CHANGES. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
BARNES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 29 33 30 36 24 / 10 100 100 5 0
WACO 30 35 31 38 24 / 10 100 100 5 0
PARIS 25 32 29 34 18 / 5 100 100 30 0
DENTON 25 33 29 35 20 / 10 100 100 5 0
MCKINNEY 26 32 29 35 20 / 5 100 100 20 0
DALLAS 29 33 31 37 23 / 5 100 100 10 0
TERRELL 26 33 30 36 22 / 5 100 100 20 0
CORSICANA 30 35 31 38 27 / 5 100 100 10 0
TEMPLE 29 35 31 38 24 / 10 100 100 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 26 32 29 35 21 / 20 100 80 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-121>123-129>134-141.
WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-
121>123-129>134-141.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123.
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