657
FXUS64 KFWD 082046
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
246 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS INCLUDING ISOLATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OTHER AREAS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS NOT COVERED BY
THE WARNING.
- MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL/SLEET TOTALS STILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/10" ARE EXPECTED ON AVERAGE, BUT THERE IS
ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1/4".
- MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 243 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025/
/THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ONE FINAL DAY AS WE
ANTICIPATE THE ARRIVAL OF WINTER WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING, BUT NORTH WINDS
WILL KEEP US RATHER CHILLY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
OVERVIEW:
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND QUICKLY TAP INTO A PLUME OF MOISTURE,
ADVECTING IT NORTHWARD INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES LATE TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP, LIKELY INITIALLY IN OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, CONTINUING
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES:
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER FOR THURSDAY, AND WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT SEEN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE, WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. AVERAGE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/10" ARE STILL
EXPECTED, BUT THERE IS AN ISOLATED (10%) CHANCE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1/4". ANY AREAS THAT SEE THESE HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD EXPERIENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
PRECIPITATION TYPES:
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS IS GOING TO BE A MESSY SITUATION, AND THERE
ARE BOUND TO BE DIFFERENCES IN WHAT WE FORECAST VERSUS WHAT
ACTUALLY HAPPENS. WE ARE STILL CONFIDENT THAT THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL BE SNOW, AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN A RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY IN OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN WILL SEE A
MESSY MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. WE HAVE DONE OUR BEST TO CAPTURE TRENDS BELOW, BUT JUST
KNOW THESE DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME COMBINATION
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. THURSDAY
MORNING, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY SEE A
COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. AS TEMPERATURES WARM JUST
ABOVE FREEZING, MORE OF CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION
TO PREDOMINANTLY COLD RAIN. THE REST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A
TRANSITION TO RAIN IN ANY AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO WARM SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. FORECASTING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN
REMAINS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE, AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING
INTRODUCES COMPLEXITIES AND UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH LOCATIONS REMAIN
ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING.
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECLINE THURSDAY EVENING, A FULL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH PRIMARILY
COLD RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES (THOSE NOT
COVERED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY) THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, AS WE CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND HOW LONG PRECIPITATION LINGERS.
ACCUMULATIONS:
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2"
AND 5" ON AVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE BANDS OF SNOW SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 8". ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS, SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/10" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED AREAS (PARTICULARLY THOSE THAT REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING) COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1/4".
IMPACTS:
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO VARY DRASTICALLY ACROSS THE REGION, OWING TO
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES, ROAD TREATMENT/CONDITIONS, ETC. SLICK
ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS TO
ROADWAYS LIKELY WON'T OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WORST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ANY LIQUID ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ROAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS OCCUR.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD/
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION, WITH ONLY A SCATTERED CHANCE OF SNOW IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND RAIN IN FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL TEXAS. TRAVEL
IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING COMMUTE AS SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS OVERTOP THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, COMPLETELY ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT BETTER WARMING OF
AIR TEMPERATURES, AND IN TURN, BETTER MELTING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
AND SNOW, TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLOW TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING, WITH SOME ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NOT REACHING 32 UNTIL CLOSER
TO NOON. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY PEAK IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S ALONG THE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF I-20, WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST, AND LOW-MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE THE REFREEZING OF ANY WATER LEFT ON ROADWAYS. IF YOU VENTURE
OUT ON SATURDAY MORNING, TAKE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING AS THERE WILL BE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS, PARTICULARLY UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE DAY SUNDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, AS WELL AS ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE.
THEREFORE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER FORECAST. ONE INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE IS THE CONTINUED
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. AS A RESPONSE TO ALL OF THE ABOVE, MONDAY LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRATER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 120 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION. A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY. A FULL TRANSITION TO RAIN MAY OCCUR AT KACT AROUND
MIDDAY, BUT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESUME BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE ACROSS THE METROPLEX IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A SNOW/SLEET
MIX, TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY A RAIN/SLEET MIX DURING THE DAY.
A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE METROPLEX LATE
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY NOT ENDING UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND TIMING IS STILL UP
IN THE AIR, AS IT IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EXISTENCE AND
MAGNITUDE OF A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IT'S POSSIBLE WE
END UP WITH MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
THE TAFS AS ANYTHING CHANGES. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
BARNES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 29 33 30 36 24 / 10 100 100 5 0
WACO 30 35 31 38 24 / 10 100 100 5 0
PARIS 25 32 29 34 18 / 5 100 100 30 0
DENTON 25 33 29 35 20 / 10 100 100 5 0
MCKINNEY 26 32 29 35 20 / 5 100 100 20 0
DALLAS 29 33 31 37 23 / 5 100 100 10 0
TERRELL 26 33 30 36 22 / 5 100 100 20 0
CORSICANA 30 35 31 38 27 / 5 100 100 10 0
TEMPLE 29 35 31 38 24 / 10 100 100 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 26 32 29 35 21 / 20 100 80 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-121>123-129>134-141.
WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-
121>123-129>134-141.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ092>095-102>107-117>123.
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