541
FXUS64 KFWD 090552
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MONTAGUE
COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REMAINS IN THE 1 TO 5
INCH RANGE. THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN OF HIGHER TOTALS WHERE
HEAVIER BANDS SET UP, AND SOME AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS COULD
RECEIVE CONSIDERABLY MORE SNOW (POSSIBLY UP TO 8 INCHES). THESE
HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY IN OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES
BUT COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX.
- LOWERED ICE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
- MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING AND
PEAK FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE
IMPROVING SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 828 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025/
/TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
QUIET AND COLD EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BUT DEWPOINTS VERY LOW IN THE
10S/20S. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE KEY TO THE SMORGASBORD
OF PRECIP TYPES WE ARE ANTICIPATING TOMORROW WITH THE WINTER
STORM. LATEST GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR INDICATE PRECIP WILL
RAPIDLY SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 10Z AND SPREAD OVER
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY 15Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WARM NOSE ALOFT INITIALLY ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS, SO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS MOST LIKELY WHEN
PRECIP STARTS. HOWEVER, AS THE AIRMASS SATURATES AND TEMPERATURES
FALL TO THE WET BULB TEMP, PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION BY LATE
MORNING TO A COLD RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, A MIX OF SLEET
AND SNOW IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND ALL SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THE RAIN/MIX/SNOW LINE SHOULD ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD
WITH THE HRRR/NAM SUGGESTING IT COULD MOVE AS FAR AS JUST NORTH
OF THE METROPLEX. BY THURSDAY EVENING, HOWEVER, CAA WILL CAUSE THE
TRANSITION ZONE TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WITH RAIN CHANGING
BACK TO SLEET/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE TRANSITION ZONE WITH THE MIX OF PRECIP TYPES
IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST - WITH OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO SEE MOSTLY SNOW AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
A COLD RAIN. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE RAIN/MIX/SNOW LINE HAS
HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON WHICH AREAS WILL SEE MORE ICE VERSUS SNOW.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TRANSITION ZONE SHIFTING AROUND
ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENT, GIVING THE
METROPLEX A MIX OF ALL PRECIP TYPES. HOWEVER, IF THE TRANSITION
ZONE DOES NOT MOVE AS FAR NORTHWARD AS GUIDANCE INDICATES, THE
METROPLEX COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE SNOW (WHICH SOME GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE GFS SUGGEST) - AND VICE VERSA, IF THE TRANSITION ZONE
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH, LESS SNOW AND MORE RAIN OR ICE FOR THE DFW
AREA. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAVE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AND DECREASED ICE AMOUNTS A TAD,
BUT AMOUNTS REMAIN IN THE SAME RANGE AS OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT
WILL BE QUITE FASCINATING METEOROLOGICALLY TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT
EVENTUALLY PANS OUT.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 246 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025/
/FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD/
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN AND WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION, WITH ONLY A SCATTERED CHANCE OF SNOW IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND RAIN IN FAR SOUTHEAST CENTRAL TEXAS. TRAVEL
IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING COMMUTE AS SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL
LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS OVERTOP THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, COMPLETELY ENDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, CLOUD COVER
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INHIBIT BETTER WARMING OF
AIR TEMPERATURES, AND IN TURN, BETTER MELTING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
AND SNOW, TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLOW TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING, WITH SOME ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NOT REACHING 32 UNTIL CLOSER
TO NOON. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY PEAK IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S ALONG THE RED RIVER AND NORTH OF I-20, WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST, AND LOW-MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL
PROMOTE THE REFREEZING OF ANY WATER LEFT ON ROADWAYS. IF YOU VENTURE
OUT ON SATURDAY MORNING, TAKE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING AS THERE WILL BE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS, PARTICULARLY UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE DAY SUNDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, AS WELL AS ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE.
THEREFORE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER FORECAST. ONE INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE IS THE CONTINUED
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. AS A RESPONSE TO ALL OF THE ABOVE, MONDAY LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR PREVAILS AT THIS HOUR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SLOWLY
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. A VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAS SPREAD
BACK INTO THE AREA AND CIGS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND 10000
FEET. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
BUT THIS IS STILL VIRGA GIVEN A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DETERIORATION IN CEILING
HEIGHT/VISIBILITY. THE LATEST TAF WILL SHOW A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
BY 13Z WITH VFR CIGS HANGING ON FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
SATURATION OCCURS. BY 15Z, WE SHOULD SEE A PREVAILING SNOW/SLEET
MIX WITH IFR VIS/CIGS IN PLACE AND THESE SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMEFRAME
FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SO WE'LL HAVE A -RASNPL MIX FOR A FEW
HOURS, BUT STRONG COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION BACK TO ALL
SNOW BY 23Z OR SO AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
WE'LL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITY
PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SNOWFALL RATES BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 29 34 30 36 24 / 10 100 90 5 0
WACO 30 37 32 38 24 / 40 100 100 5 0
PARIS 26 33 30 34 18 / 5 90 100 30 0
DENTON 26 33 27 35 20 / 10 100 90 5 0
MCKINNEY 26 34 29 35 20 / 10 100 100 20 0
DALLAS 29 35 30 37 23 / 10 100 100 10 0
TERRELL 27 36 30 36 22 / 5 100 100 20 0
CORSICANA 30 37 32 38 27 / 10 100 100 10 0
TEMPLE 29 37 31 38 24 / 40 100 100 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 27 33 28 35 21 / 40 100 80 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-102>107-117>123.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ100-101-115-116-129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
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